deterministic safety assessment: Topics by Science.gov

Sample records for deterministic safety assessment

Integrated deterministic and probabilistic safety analysis for safety assessment of nuclear power plants

DOE PAGES

Di Maio, Francesco; Zio, Enrico; Smith, Curtis; ...

2015-07-06

The present special issue contains an overview of the research in the field of Integrated Deterministic and Probabilistic Safety Assessment (IDPSA) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). Traditionally, safety regulation for NPPs design and operation has been based on Deterministic Safety Assessment (DSA) methods to verify criteria that assure plant safety in a number of postulated Design Basis Accident (DBA) scenarios. Referring to such criteria, it is also possible to identify those plant Structures, Systems, and Components (SSCs) and activities that are most important for safety within those postulated scenarios. Then, the design, operation, and maintenance of these “safety-related” SSCs andmore » activities are controlled through regulatory requirements and supported by Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA).« less
First Order Reliability Application and Verification Methods for Semistatic Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Verderaime, Vincent

1994-01-01

Escalating risks of aerostructures stimulated by increasing size, complexity, and cost should no longer be ignored by conventional deterministic safety design methods. The deterministic pass-fail concept is incompatible with probability and risk assessments, its stress audits are shown to be arbitrary and incomplete, and it compromises high strength materials performance. A reliability method is proposed which combines first order reliability principles with deterministic design variables and conventional test technique to surmount current deterministic stress design and audit deficiencies. Accumulative and propagation design uncertainty errors are defined and appropriately implemented into the classical safety index expression. The application is reduced to solving for a factor that satisfies the specified reliability and compensates for uncertainty errors, and then using this factor as, and instead of, the conventional safety factor in stress analyses. The resulting method is consistent with current analytical skills and verification practices, the culture of most designers, and with the pace of semistatic structural designs.
PROBABILISTIC SAFETY ASSESSMENT OF OPERATIONAL ACCIDENTS AT THE WASTE ISOLATION PILOT PLANT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rucker, D.F.

2000-09-01

This report presents a probabilistic safety assessment of radioactive doses as consequences from accident scenarios to complement the deterministic assessment presented in the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) Safety Analysis Report (SAR). The International Council of Radiation Protection (ICRP) recommends both assessments be conducted to ensure that ''an adequate level of safety has been achieved and that no major contributors to risk are overlooked'' (ICRP 1993). To that end, the probabilistic assessment for the WIPP accident scenarios addresses the wide range of assumptions, e.g. the range of values representing the radioactive source of an accident, that could possibly have beenmore » overlooked by the SAR. Routine releases of radionuclides from the WIPP repository to the environment during the waste emplacement operations are expected to be essentially zero. In contrast, potential accidental releases from postulated accident scenarios during waste handling and emplacement could be substantial, which necessitates the need for radiological air monitoring and confinement barriers (DOE 1999). The WIPP Safety Analysis Report (SAR) calculated doses from accidental releases to the on-site (at 100 m from the source) and off-site (at the Exclusive Use Boundary and Site Boundary) public by a deterministic approach. This approach, as demonstrated in the SAR, uses single-point values of key parameters to assess the 50-year, whole-body committed effective dose equivalent (CEDE). The basic assumptions used in the SAR to formulate the CEDE are retained for this report's probabilistic assessment. However, for the probabilistic assessment, single-point parameter values were replaced with probability density functions (PDF) and were sampled over an expected range. Monte Carlo simulations were run, in which 10,000 iterations were performed by randomly selecting one value for each parameter and calculating the dose. Statistical information was then derived from the 10,000 iteration batch, which included 5%, 50%, and 95% dose likelihood, and the sensitivity of each assumption to the calculated doses. As one would intuitively expect, the doses from the probabilistic assessment for most scenarios were found to be much less than the deterministic assessment. The lower dose of the probabilistic assessment can be attributed to a ''smearing'' of values from the high and low end of the PDF spectrum of the various input parameters. The analysis also found a potential weakness in the deterministic analysis used in the SAR, a detail on drum loading was not taken into consideration. Waste emplacement operations thus far have handled drums from each shipment as a single unit, i.e. drums from each shipment are kept together. Shipments typically come from a single waste stream, and therefore the curie loading of each drum can be considered nearly identical to that of its neighbor. Calculations show that if there are large numbers of drums used in the accident scenario assessment, e.g. 28 drums in the waste hoist failure scenario (CH5), then the probabilistic dose assessment calculations will diverge from the deterministically determined doses. As it is currently calculated, the deterministic dose assessment assumes one drum loaded to the maximum allowable (80 PE-Ci), and the remaining are 10% of the maximum. The effective average of drum curie content is therefore less in the deterministic assessment than the probabilistic assessment for a large number of drums. EEG recommends that the WIPP SAR calculations be revisited and updated to include a probabilistic safety assessment.« less
Structural Deterministic Safety Factors Selection Criteria and Verification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Verderaime, V.

1992-01-01

Though current deterministic safety factors are arbitrarily and unaccountably specified, its ratio is rooted in resistive and applied stress probability distributions. This study approached the deterministic method from a probabilistic concept leading to a more systematic and coherent philosophy and criterion for designing more uniform and reliable high-performance structures. The deterministic method was noted to consist of three safety factors: a standard deviation multiplier of the applied stress distribution; a K-factor for the A- or B-basis material ultimate stress; and the conventional safety factor to ensure that the applied stress does not operate in the inelastic zone of metallic materials. The conventional safety factor is specifically defined as the ratio of ultimate-to-yield stresses. A deterministic safety index of the combined safety factors was derived from which the corresponding reliability proved the deterministic method is not reliability sensitive. The bases for selecting safety factors are presented and verification requirements are discussed. The suggested deterministic approach is applicable to all NASA, DOD, and commercial high-performance structures under static stresses.
First-order reliability application and verification methods for semistatic structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verderaime, V.

1994-11-01

Escalating risks of aerostructures stimulated by increasing size, complexity, and cost should no longer be ignored in conventional deterministic safety design methods. The deterministic pass-fail concept is incompatible with probability and risk assessments; stress audits are shown to be arbitrary and incomplete, and the concept compromises the performance of high-strength materials. A reliability method is proposed that combines first-order reliability principles with deterministic design variables and conventional test techniques to surmount current deterministic stress design and audit deficiencies. Accumulative and propagation design uncertainty errors are defined and appropriately implemented into the classical safety-index expression. The application is reduced to solving for a design factor that satisfies the specified reliability and compensates for uncertainty errors, and then using this design factor as, and instead of, the conventional safety factor in stress analyses. The resulting method is consistent with current analytical skills and verification practices, the culture of most designers, and the development of semistatic structural designs.
Probabilistic safety assessment of the design of a tall buildings under the extreme load

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Králik, Juraj, E-mail: juraj.kralik@stuba.sk

2016-06-08

The paper describes some experiences from the deterministic and probabilistic analysis of the safety of the tall building structure. There are presented the methods and requirements of Eurocode EN 1990, standard ISO 2394 and JCSS. The uncertainties of the model and resistance of the structures are considered using the simulation methods. The MONTE CARLO, LHS and RSM probabilistic methods are compared with the deterministic results. On the example of the probability analysis of the safety of the tall buildings is demonstrated the effectiveness of the probability design of structures using Finite Element Methods.
Probabilistic safety assessment of the design of a tall buildings under the extreme load

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Králik, Juraj

2016-06-01

The paper describes some experiences from the deterministic and probabilistic analysis of the safety of the tall building structure. There are presented the methods and requirements of Eurocode EN 1990, standard ISO 2394 and JCSS. The uncertainties of the model and resistance of the structures are considered using the simulation methods. The MONTE CARLO, LHS and RSM probabilistic methods are compared with the deterministic results. On the example of the probability analysis of the safety of the tall buildings is demonstrated the effectiveness of the probability design of structures using Finite Element Methods.
Quasi-Static Probabilistic Structural Analyses Process and Criteria

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldberg, B.; Verderaime, V.

1999-01-01

Current deterministic structural methods are easily applied to substructures and components, and analysts have built great design insights and confidence in them over the years. However, deterministic methods cannot support systems risk analyses, and it was recently reported that deterministic treatment of statistical data is inconsistent with error propagation laws that can result in unevenly conservative structural predictions. Assuming non-nal distributions and using statistical data formats throughout prevailing stress deterministic processes lead to a safety factor in statistical format, which integrated into the safety index, provides a safety factor and first order reliability relationship. The embedded safety factor in the safety index expression allows a historically based risk to be determined and verified over a variety of quasi-static metallic substructures consistent with the traditional safety factor methods and NASA Std. 5001 criteria.
Nuclear power and probabilistic safety assessment (PSA): past through future applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stamatelatos, M. G.; Moieni, P.; Everline, C. J.

1995-03-01

Nuclear power reactor safety in the United States is about to enter a new era -- an era of risk- based management and risk-based regulation. First, there was the age of `prescribed safety assessment,' during which a series of design-basis accidents in eight categories of severity, or classes, were postulated and analyzed. Toward the end of that era, it was recognized that `Class 9,' or `beyond design basis,' accidents would need special attention because of the potentially severe health and financial consequences of these accidents. The accident at Three Mile Island showed that sequences of low-consequence, high-frequency events and human errors can be much more risk dominant than the Class 9 accidents. A different form of safety assessment, PSA, emerged and began to gain ground against the deterministic safety establishment. Eventually, this led to the current regulatory requirements for individual plant examinations (IPEs). The IPEs can serve as a basis for risk-based regulation and management, a concept that may ultimately transform the U.S. regulatory process from its traditional deterministic foundations to a process predicated upon PSA. Beyond the possibility of a regulatory environment predicated upon PSA lies the possibility of using PSA as the foundation for managing daily nuclear power plant operations.
Challenges Ahead for Nuclear Facility Site-Specific Seismic Hazard Assessment in France: The Alternative Energies and the Atomic Energy Commission (CEA) Vision

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berge-Thierry, C.; Hollender, F.; Guyonnet-Benaize, C.; Baumont, D.; Ameri, G.; Bollinger, L.

2017-09-01

Seismic analysis in the context of nuclear safety in France is currently guided by a pure deterministic approach based on Basic Safety Rule ( Règle Fondamentale de Sûreté) RFS 2001-01 for seismic hazard assessment, and on the ASN/2/01 Guide that provides design rules for nuclear civil engineering structures. After the 2011 Tohohu earthquake, nuclear operators worldwide were asked to estimate the ability of their facilities to sustain extreme seismic loads. The French licensees then defined the `hard core seismic levels', which are higher than those considered for design or re-assessment of the safety of a facility. These were initially established on a deterministic basis, and they have been finally justified through state-of-the-art probabilistic seismic hazard assessments. The appreciation and propagation of uncertainties when assessing seismic hazard in France have changed considerably over the past 15 years. This evolution provided the motivation for the present article, the objectives of which are threefold: (1) to provide a description of the current practices in France to assess seismic hazard in terms of nuclear safety; (2) to discuss and highlight the sources of uncertainties and their treatment; and (3) to use a specific case study to illustrate how extended source modeling can help to constrain the key assumptions or parameters that impact upon seismic hazard assessment. This article discusses in particular seismic source characterization, strong ground motion prediction, and maximal magnitude constraints, according to the practice of the French Atomic Energy Commission. Due to increases in strong motion databases in terms of the number and quality of the records in their metadata and the uncertainty characterization, several recently published empirical ground motion prediction models are eligible for seismic hazard assessment in France. We show that propagation of epistemic and aleatory uncertainties is feasible in a deterministic approach, as in a probabilistic way. Assessment of seismic hazard in France in the framework of the safety of nuclear facilities should consider these recent advances. In this sense, the opening of discussions with all of the stakeholders in France to update the reference documents (i.e., RFS 2001-01; ASN/2/01 Guide) appears appropriate in the short term.
Impact of refining the assessment of dietary exposure to cadmium in the European adult population.

PubMed

Ferrari, Pietro; Arcella, Davide; Heraud, Fanny; Cappé, Stefano; Fabiansson, Stefan

2013-01-01

Exposure assessment constitutes an important step in any risk assessment of potentially harmful substances present in food. The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) first assessed dietary exposure to cadmium in Europe using a deterministic framework, resulting in mean values of exposure in the range of health-based guidance values. Since then, the characterisation of foods has been refined to better match occurrence and consumption data, and a new strategy to handle left-censoring in occurrence data was devised. A probabilistic assessment was performed and compared with deterministic estimates, using occurrence values at the European level and consumption data from 14 national dietary surveys. Mean estimates in the probabilistic assessment ranged from 1.38 (95% CI = 1.35-1.44) to 2.08 (1.99-2.23) µg kg⁻¹ bodyweight (bw) week⁻¹ across the different surveys, which were less than 10% lower than deterministic (middle bound) mean values that ranged from 1.50 to 2.20 µg kg⁻¹ bw week⁻¹. Probabilistic 95th percentile estimates of dietary exposure ranged from 2.65 (2.57-2.72) to 4.99 (4.62-5.38) µg kg⁻¹ bw week⁻¹, which were, with the exception of one survey, between 3% and 17% higher than middle-bound deterministic estimates. Overall, the proportion of subjects exceeding the tolerable weekly intake of 2.5 µg kg⁻¹ bw ranged from 14.8% (13.6-16.0%) to 31.2% (29.7-32.5%) according to the probabilistic assessment. The results of this work indicate that mean values of dietary exposure to cadmium in the European population were of similar magnitude using determinist or probabilistic assessments. For higher exposure levels, probabilistic estimates were almost consistently larger than deterministic counterparts, thus reflecting the impact of using the full distribution of occurrence values to determine exposure levels. It is considered prudent to use probabilistic methodology should exposure estimates be close to or exceeding health-based guidance values.
Characterizing Uncertainty and Variability in PBPK Models ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Mode-of-action based risk and safety assessments can rely upon tissue dosimetry estimates in animals and humans obtained from physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling. However, risk assessment also increasingly requires characterization of uncertainty and variability; such characterization for PBPK model predictions represents a continuing challenge to both modelers and users. Current practices show significant progress in specifying deterministic biological models and the non-deterministic (often statistical) models, estimating their parameters using diverse data sets from multiple sources, and using them to make predictions and characterize uncertainty and variability. The International Workshop on Uncertainty and Variability in PBPK Models, held Oct 31-Nov 2, 2006, sought to identify the state-of-the-science in this area and recommend priorities for research and changes in practice and implementation. For the short term, these include: (1) multidisciplinary teams to integrate deterministic and non-deterministic/statistical models; (2) broader use of sensitivity analyses, including for structural and global (rather than local) parameter changes; and (3) enhanced transparency and reproducibility through more complete documentation of the model structure(s) and parameter values, the results of sensitivity and other analyses, and supporting, discrepant, or excluded data. Longer-term needs include: (1) theoretic and practical methodological impro
Development of a First-of-a-Kind Deterministic Decision-Making Tool for Supervisory Control System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cetiner, Sacit M; Kisner, Roger A; Muhlheim, Michael David

2015-07-01

Decision-making is the process of identifying and choosing alternatives where each alternative offers a different approach or path to move from a given state or condition to a desired state or condition. The generation of consistent decisions requires that a structured, coherent process be defined, immediately leading to a decision-making framework. The overall objective of the generalized framework is for it to be adopted into an autonomous decision-making framework and tailored to specific requirements for various applications. In this context, automation is the use of computing resources to make decisions and implement a structured decision-making process with limited or nomore » human intervention. The overriding goal of automation is to replace or supplement human decision makers with reconfigurable decision- making modules that can perform a given set of tasks reliably. Risk-informed decision making requires a probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of success given the status of the plant/systems and component health, and a deterministic assessment between plant operating parameters and reactor protection parameters to prevent unnecessary trips and challenges to plant safety systems. The implementation of the probabilistic portion of the decision-making engine of the proposed supervisory control system was detailed in previous milestone reports. Once the control options are identified and ranked based on the likelihood of success, the supervisory control system transmits the options to the deterministic portion of the platform. The deterministic multi-attribute decision-making framework uses variable sensor data (e.g., outlet temperature) and calculates where it is within the challenge state, its trajectory, and margin within the controllable domain using utility functions to evaluate current and projected plant state space for different control decisions. Metrics to be evaluated include stability, cost, time to complete (action), power level, etc. The integration of deterministic calculations using multi-physics analyses (i.e., neutronics, thermal, and thermal-hydraulics) and probabilistic safety calculations allows for the examination and quantification of margin recovery strategies. This also provides validation of the control options identified from the probabilistic assessment. Thus, the thermal-hydraulics analyses are used to validate the control options identified from the probabilistic assessment. Future work includes evaluating other possible metrics and computational efficiencies.« less
Coupling Legacy and Contemporary Deterministic Codes to Goldsim for Probabilistic Assessments of Potential Low-Level Waste Repository Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mattie, P. D.; Knowlton, R. G.; Arnold, B. W.; Tien, N.; Kuo, M.

2006-12-01

Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia), a U.S. Department of Energy National Laboratory, has over 30 years experience in radioactive waste disposal and is providing assistance internationally in a number of areas relevant to the safety assessment of radioactive waste disposal systems. International technology transfer efforts are often hampered by small budgets, time schedule constraints, and a lack of experienced personnel in countries with small radioactive waste disposal programs. In an effort to surmount these difficulties, Sandia has developed a system that utilizes a combination of commercially available codes and existing legacy codes for probabilistic safety assessment modeling that facilitates the technology transfer and maximizes limited available funding. Numerous codes developed and endorsed by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission and codes developed and maintained by United States Department of Energy are generally available to foreign countries after addressing import/export control and copyright requirements. From a programmatic view, it is easier to utilize existing codes than to develop new codes. From an economic perspective, it is not possible for most countries with small radioactive waste disposal programs to maintain complex software, which meets the rigors of both domestic regulatory requirements and international peer review. Therefore, re-vitalization of deterministic legacy codes, as well as an adaptation of contemporary deterministic codes, provides a creditable and solid computational platform for constructing probabilistic safety assessment models. External model linkage capabilities in Goldsim and the techniques applied to facilitate this process will be presented using example applications, including Breach, Leach, and Transport-Multiple Species (BLT-MS), a U.S. NRC sponsored code simulating release and transport of contaminants from a subsurface low-level waste disposal facility used in a cooperative technology transfer project between Sandia National Laboratories and Taiwan's Institute of Nuclear Energy Research (INER) for the preliminary assessment of several candidate low-level waste repository sites. Sandia National Laboratories is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy under Contract DE AC04 94AL85000.
Health risk assessment of inorganic arsenic intake of Ronphibun residents via duplicate diet study.

PubMed

Saipan, Piyawat; Ruangwises, Suthep

2009-06-01

To assess health risk from exposure to inorganic arsenic via duplicate portion sampling method in Ronphibun residents. A hundred and forty samples (140 subject-days) were collected from participants in Ronphibun sub-district. Inorganic arsenic in duplicate diet sample was determined by acid digestion and hydride generation-atomic absorption spectrometry. Deterministic risk assessment is referenced throughout the present paper using United States Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) guidelines. The average daily dose and lifetime average daily dose of inorganic arsenic via duplicate diet were 0.0021 mg/kg/d and 0.00084 mg/kg/d, respectively. The risk estimates in terms of hazard quotient was 6.98 and cancer risk was 1.26 x 10(-3). The results of deterministic risk characterization both hazard quotient and cancer risk from exposure inorganic arsenic in duplicate diets were greater than safety risk levels of hazard quotient (1) and cancer risk (1 x 10(-4)).
Integrated Risk-Informed Decision-Making for an ALMR PRISM

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Muhlheim, Michael David; Belles, Randy; Denning, Richard S.

Decision-making is the process of identifying decision alternatives, assessing those alternatives based on predefined metrics, selecting an alternative (i.e., making a decision), and then implementing that alternative. The generation of decisions requires a structured, coherent process, or a decision-making process. The overall objective for this work is that the generalized framework is adopted into an autonomous decision-making framework and tailored to specific requirements for various applications. In this context, automation is the use of computing resources to make decisions and implement a structured decision-making process with limited or no human intervention. The overriding goal of automation is to replace ormore » supplement human decision makers with reconfigurable decision-making modules that can perform a given set of tasks rationally, consistently, and reliably. Risk-informed decision-making requires a probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of success given the status of the plant/systems and component health, and a deterministic assessment between plant operating parameters and reactor protection parameters to prevent unnecessary trips and challenges to plant safety systems. The probabilistic portion of the decision-making engine of the supervisory control system is based on the control actions associated with an ALMR PRISM. Newly incorporated into the probabilistic models are the prognostic/diagnostic models developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. These allow decisions to incorporate the health of components into the decision–making process. Once the control options are identified and ranked based on the likelihood of success, the supervisory control system transmits the options to the deterministic portion of the platform. The deterministic portion of the decision-making engine uses thermal-hydraulic modeling and components for an advanced liquid-metal reactor Power Reactor Inherently Safe Module. The deterministic multi-attribute decision-making framework uses various sensor data (e.g., reactor outlet temperature, steam generator drum level) and calculates its position within the challenge state, its trajectory, and its margin within the controllable domain using utility functions to evaluate current and projected plant state space for different control decisions. The metrics that are evaluated are based on reactor trip set points. The integration of the deterministic calculations using multi-physics analyses and probabilistic safety calculations allows for the examination and quantification of margin recovery strategies. This also provides validation of the control options identified from the probabilistic assessment. Thus, the thermalhydraulics analyses are used to validate the control options identified from the probabilistic assessment. Future work includes evaluating other possible metrics and computational efficiencies, and developing a user interface to mimic display panels at a modern nuclear power plant.« less
Inherent Conservatism in Deterministic Quasi-Static Structural Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Verderaime, V.

1997-01-01

The cause of the long-suspected excessive conservatism in the prevailing structural deterministic safety factor has been identified as an inherent violation of the error propagation laws when reducing statistical data to deterministic values and then combining them algebraically through successive structural computational processes. These errors are restricted to the applied stress computations, and because mean and variations of the tolerance limit format are added, the errors are positive, serially cumulative, and excessively conservative. Reliability methods circumvent these errors and provide more efficient and uniform safe structures. The document is a tutorial on the deficiencies and nature of the current safety factor and of its improvement and transition to absolute reliability.
USING A RISK-BASED METHODOLOGY FOR THE TRANSFER OF RADIOACTIVE MATERIAL WITHIN THE SAVANNAH RIVER SITE BOUNDARY

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Loftin, B; Watkins, R; Loibl, M

2010-06-03

Shipment of radioactive materials (RAM) is discussed in the Code of Federal Regulations in parts of both 49 CFR and 10 CFR. The regulations provide the requirements and rules necessary for the safe shipment of RAM across public highways, railways, waterways, and through the air. These shipments are sometimes referred to as in-commerce shipments. Shipments of RAM entirely within the boundaries of Department of Energy sites, such as the Savannah River Site (SRS), can be made using methodology allowing provisions to maintain equivalent safety while deviating from the regulations for in-commerce shipments. These onsite shipments are known as transfers atmore » the SRS. These transfers must follow the requirements approved in a site-specific Transportation Safety Document (TSD). The TSD defines how the site will transfer materials so that they have equivalence to the regulations. These equivalences are documented in an Onsite Safety Assessment (OSA). The OSA can show how a particular packaging used onsite is equivalent to that which would be used for an in-commerce shipment. This is known as a deterministic approach. However, when a deterministic approach is not viable, the TSD allows for a risk-based OSA to be written. These risk-based assessments show that if a packaging does not provide the necessary safety to ensure that materials are not released (during normal or accident conditions) then the worst-case release of materials does not result in a dose consequence worse than that defined for the SRS. This paper will discuss recent challenges and successes using this methodology at the SRS.« less
Transient deterministic shallow landslide modeling: Requirements for susceptibility and hazard assessments in a GIS framework

USGS Publications Warehouse

Godt, J.W.; Baum, R.L.; Savage, W.Z.; Salciarini, D.; Schulz, W.H.; Harp, E.L.

2008-01-01

Application of transient deterministic shallow landslide models over broad regions for hazard and susceptibility assessments requires information on rainfall, topography and the distribution and properties of hillside materials. We survey techniques for generating the spatial and temporal input data for such models and present an example using a transient deterministic model that combines an analytic solution to assess the pore-pressure response to rainfall infiltration with an infinite-slope stability calculation. Pore-pressures and factors of safety are computed on a cell-by-cell basis and can be displayed or manipulated in a grid-based GIS. Input data are high-resolution (1.8??m) topographic information derived from LiDAR data and simple descriptions of initial pore-pressure distribution and boundary conditions for a study area north of Seattle, Washington. Rainfall information is taken from a previously defined empirical rainfall intensity-duration threshold and material strength and hydraulic properties were measured both in the field and laboratory. Results are tested by comparison with a shallow landslide inventory. Comparison of results with those from static infinite-slope stability analyses assuming fixed water-table heights shows that the spatial prediction of shallow landslide susceptibility is improved using the transient analyses; moreover, results can be depicted in terms of the rainfall intensity and duration known to trigger shallow landslides in the study area.
RDS - A systematic approach towards system thermal hydraulics input code development for a comprehensive deterministic safety analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salim, Mohd Faiz; Roslan, Ridha; Ibrahim, Mohd Rizal Mamat @

2014-02-01

Deterministic Safety Analysis (DSA) is one of the mandatory requirements conducted for Nuclear Power Plant licensing process, with the aim of ensuring safety compliance with relevant regulatory acceptance criteria. DSA is a technique whereby a set of conservative deterministic rules and requirements are applied for the design and operation of facilities or activities. Computer codes are normally used to assist in performing all required analysis under DSA. To ensure a comprehensive analysis, the conduct of DSA should follow a systematic approach. One of the methodologies proposed is the Standardized and Consolidated Reference Experimental (and Calculated) Database (SCRED) developed by University of Pisa. Based on this methodology, the use of Reference Data Set (RDS) as a pre-requisite reference document for developing input nodalization was proposed. This paper shall describe the application of RDS with the purpose of assessing its effectiveness. Two RDS documents were developed for an Integral Test Facility of LOBI-MOD2 and associated Test A1-83. Data and information from various reports and drawings were referred in preparing the RDS. The results showed that by developing RDS, it has made possible to consolidate all relevant information in one single document. This is beneficial as it enables preservation of information, promotes quality assurance, allows traceability, facilitates continuous improvement, promotes solving of contradictions and finally assisting in developing thermal hydraulic input regardless of whichever code selected. However, some disadvantages were also recognized such as the need for experience in making engineering judgments, language barrier in accessing foreign information and limitation of resources. Some possible improvements are suggested to overcome these challenges.

Universal first-order reliability concept applied to semistatic structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Verderaime, V.

1994-01-01

A reliability design concept was developed for semistatic structures which combines the prevailing deterministic method with the first-order reliability method. The proposed method surmounts deterministic deficiencies in providing uniformly reliable structures and improved safety audits. It supports risk analyses and reliability selection criterion. The method provides a reliability design factor derived from the reliability criterion which is analogous to the current safety factor for sizing structures and verifying reliability response. The universal first-order reliability method should also be applicable for air and surface vehicles semistatic structures.
Universal first-order reliability concept applied to semistatic structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verderaime, V.

1994-07-01

A reliability design concept was developed for semistatic structures which combines the prevailing deterministic method with the first-order reliability method. The proposed method surmounts deterministic deficiencies in providing uniformly reliable structures and improved safety audits. It supports risk analyses and reliability selection criterion. The method provides a reliability design factor derived from the reliability criterion which is analogous to the current safety factor for sizing structures and verifying reliability response. The universal first-order reliability method should also be applicable for air and surface vehicles semistatic structures.
Interrelation Between Safety Factors and Reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elishakoff, Isaac; Chamis, Christos C. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

An evaluation was performed to establish relationships between safety factors and reliability relationships. Results obtained show that the use of the safety factor is not contradictory to the employment of the probabilistic methods. In many cases the safety factors can be directly expressed by the required reliability levels. However, there is a major difference that must be emphasized: whereas the safety factors are allocated in an ad hoc manner, the probabilistic approach offers a unified mathematical framework. The establishment of the interrelation between the concepts opens an avenue to specify safety factors based on reliability. In cases where there are several forms of failure, then the allocation of safety factors should he based on having the same reliability associated with each failure mode. This immediately suggests that by the probabilistic methods the existing over-design or under-design can be eliminated. The report includes three parts: Part 1-Random Actual Stress and Deterministic Yield Stress; Part 2-Deterministic Actual Stress and Random Yield Stress; Part 3-Both Actual Stress and Yield Stress Are Random.
Study on the evaluation method for fault displacement based on characterized source model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tonagi, M.; Takahama, T.; Matsumoto, Y.; Inoue, N.; Irikura, K.; Dalguer, L. A.

2016-12-01

In IAEA Specific Safety Guide (SSG) 9 describes that probabilistic methods for evaluating fault displacement should be used if no sufficient basis is provided to decide conclusively that the fault is not capable by using the deterministic methodology. In addition, International Seismic Safety Centre compiles as ANNEX to realize seismic hazard for nuclear facilities described in SSG-9 and shows the utility of the deterministic and probabilistic evaluation methods for fault displacement. In Japan, it is required that important nuclear facilities should be established on ground where fault displacement will not arise when earthquakes occur in the future. Under these situations, based on requirements, we need develop evaluation methods for fault displacement to enhance safety in nuclear facilities. We are studying deterministic and probabilistic methods with tentative analyses using observed records such as surface fault displacement and near-fault strong ground motions of inland crustal earthquake which fault displacements arose. In this study, we introduce the concept of evaluation methods for fault displacement. After that, we show parts of tentative analysis results for deterministic method as follows: (1) For the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake, referring slip distribution estimated by waveform inversion, we construct a characterized source model (Miyake et al., 2003, BSSA) which can explain observed near-fault broad band strong ground motions. (2) Referring a characterized source model constructed in (1), we study an evaluation method for surface fault displacement using hybrid method, which combines particle method and distinct element method. At last, we suggest one of the deterministic method to evaluate fault displacement based on characterized source model. This research was part of the 2015 research project `Development of evaluating method for fault displacement` by the Secretariat of Nuclear Regulation Authority (S/NRA), Japan.
Health, safety and environmental unit performance assessment model under uncertainty (case study: steel industry).

PubMed

Shamaii, Azin; Omidvari, Manouchehr; Lotfi, Farhad Hosseinzadeh

2017-01-01

Performance assessment is a critical objective of management systems. As a result of the non-deterministic and qualitative nature of performance indicators, assessments are likely to be influenced by evaluators' personal judgments. Furthermore, in developing countries, performance assessments by the Health, Safety and Environment (HSE) department are based solely on the number of accidents. A questionnaire is used to conduct the study in one of the largest steel production companies in Iran. With respect to health, safety, and environment, the results revealed that control of disease, fire hazards, and air pollution are of paramount importance, with coefficients of 0.057, 0.062, and 0.054, respectively. Furthermore, health and environment indicators were found to be the most common causes of poor performance. Finally, it was shown that HSE management systems can affect the majority of performance safety indicators in the short run, whereas health and environment indicators require longer periods of time. The objective of this study is to present an HSE-MS unit performance assessment model in steel industries. Moreover, we seek to answer the following question: what are the factors that affect HSE unit system in the steel industry? Also, for each factor, the extent of impact on the performance of the HSE management system in the organization is determined.
Impact of Passive Safety on FHR Instrumentation Systems Design and Classification

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Holcomb, David Eugene

2015-01-01

Fluoride salt-cooled high-temperature reactors (FHRs) will rely more extensively on passive safety than earlier reactor classes. 10CFR50 Appendix A, General Design Criteria for Nuclear Power Plants, establishes minimum design requirements to provide reasonable assurance of adequate safety. 10CFR50.69, Risk-Informed Categorization and Treatment of Structures, Systems and Components for Nuclear Power Reactors, provides guidance on how the safety significance of systems, structures, and components (SSCs) should be reflected in their regulatory treatment. The Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI) has provided 10 CFR 50.69 SSC Categorization Guideline (NEI-00-04) that factors in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model insights, as well as deterministic insights, throughmore » an integrated decision-making panel. Employing the PRA to inform deterministic requirements enables an appropriately balanced, technically sound categorization to be established. No FHR currently has an adequate PRA or set of design basis accidents to enable establishing the safety classification of its SSCs. While all SSCs used to comply with the general design criteria (GDCs) will be safety related, the intent is to limit the instrumentation risk significance through effective design and reliance on inherent passive safety characteristics. For example, FHRs have no safety-significant temperature threshold phenomena, thus enabling the primary and reserve reactivity control systems required by GDC 26 to be passively, thermally triggered at temperatures well below those for which core or primary coolant boundary damage would occur. Moreover, the passive thermal triggering of the primary and reserve shutdown systems may relegate the control rod drive motors to the control system, substantially decreasing the amount of safety-significant wiring needed. Similarly, FHR decay heat removal systems are intended to be running continuously to minimize the amount of safety-significant instrumentation needed to initiate operation of systems and components important to safety as required in GDC 20. This paper provides an overview of the design process employed to develop a pre-conceptual FHR instrumentation architecture intended to lower plant capital and operational costs by minimizing reliance on expensive, safety related, safety-significant instrumentation through the use of inherent passive features of FHRs.« less
Current and anticipated uses of thermalhydraulic and neutronic codes at PSI

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aksan, S.N.; Zimmermann, M.A.; Yadigaroglu, G.

1997-07-01

The thermalhydraulic and/or neutronic codes in use at PSI mainly provide the capability to perform deterministic safety analysis for Swiss NPPs and also serve as analysis tools for experimental facilities for LWR and ALWR simulations. In relation to these applications, physical model development and improvements, and assessment of the codes are also essential components of the activities. In this paper, a brief overview is provided on the thermalhydraulic and/or neutronic codes used for safety analysis of LWRs, at PSI, and also of some experiences and applications with these codes. Based on these experiences, additional assessment needs are indicated, together withmore » some model improvement needs. The future needs that could be used to specify both the development of a new code and also improvement of available codes are summarized.« less
Plenary: Progress in Regional Landslide Hazard Assessment—Examples from the USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baum, Rex L.; Schulz, William; Brien, Dianne L.; Burns, William J.; Reid, Mark E.; Godt, Jonathan W.

2014-01-01

Landslide hazard assessment at local and regional scales contributes to mitigation of landslides in developing and densely populated areas by providing information for (1) land development and redevelopment plans and regulations, (2) emergency preparedness plans, and (3) economic analysis to (a) set priorities for engineered mitigation projects and (b) define areas of similar levels of hazard for insurance purposes. US Geological Survey (USGS) research on landslide hazard assessment has explored a range of methods that can be used to estimate temporal and spatial landslide potential and probability for various scales and purposes. Cases taken primarily from our work in the U.S. Pacific Northwest illustrate and compare a sampling of methods, approaches, and progress. For example, landform mapping using high-resolution topographic data resulted in identification of about four times more landslides in Seattle, Washington, than previous efforts using aerial photography. Susceptibility classes based on the landforms captured 93 % of all historical landslides (all types) throughout the city. A deterministic model for rainfall infiltration and shallow landslide initiation, TRIGRS, was able to identify locations of 92 % of historical shallow landslides in southwest Seattle. The potentially unstable areas identified by TRIGRS occupied only 26 % of the slope areas steeper than 20°. Addition of an unsaturated infiltration model to TRIGRS expands the applicability of the model to areas of highly permeable soils. Replacement of the single cell, 1D factor of safety with a simple 3D method of columns improves accuracy of factor of safety predictions for both saturated and unsaturated infiltration models. A 3D deterministic model for large, deep landslides, SCOOPS, combined with a three-dimensional model for groundwater flow, successfully predicted instability in steep areas of permeable outwash sand and topographic reentrants. These locations are consistent with locations of large, deep, historically active landslides. For an area in Seattle, a composite of the three maps illustrates how maps produced by different approaches might be combined to assess overall landslide potential. Examples from Oregon, USA, illustrate how landform mapping and deterministic analysis for shallow landslide potential have been adapted into standardized methods for efficiently producing detailed landslide inventory and shallow landslide susceptibility maps that have consistent content and format statewide.
Safety and integrity of pipeline systems - philosophy and experience in Germany

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-01-01

The design, construction and operation of gas pipeline systems in Germany are subject to the Energy Act and associated regulations. This legal structure is based on a deterministic rather than a probabilistic safety philosophy, consisting of technica...
Health safety nets can break cycles of poverty and disease: a stochastic ecological model.

PubMed

Plucinski, Mateusz M; Ngonghala, Calistus N; Bonds, Matthew H

2011-12-07

The persistence of extreme poverty is increasingly attributed to dynamic interactions between biophysical processes and economics, though there remains a dearth of integrated theoretical frameworks that can inform policy. Here, we present a stochastic model of disease-driven poverty traps. Whereas deterministic models can result in poverty traps that can only be broken by substantial external changes to the initial conditions, in the stochastic model there is always some probability that a population will leave or enter a poverty trap. We show that a 'safety net', defined as an externally enforced minimum level of health or economic conditions, can guarantee ultimate escape from a poverty trap, even if the safety net is set within the basin of attraction of the poverty trap, and even if the safety net is only in the form of a public health measure. Whereas the deterministic model implies that small improvements in initial conditions near the poverty-trap equilibrium are futile, the stochastic model suggests that the impact of changes in the location of the safety net on the rate of development may be strongest near the poverty-trap equilibrium.
Comprehensive European dietary exposure model (CEDEM) for food additives.

PubMed

Tennant, David R

2016-05-01

European methods for assessing dietary exposures to nutrients, additives and other substances in food are limited by the availability of detailed food consumption data for all member states. A proposed comprehensive European dietary exposure model (CEDEM) applies summary data published by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) in a deterministic model based on an algorithm from the EFSA intake method for food additives. The proposed approach can predict estimates of food additive exposure provided in previous EFSA scientific opinions that were based on the full European food consumption database.
Soils: man-caused radioactivity and radiation forecast

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gablin, Vassily

2007-07-01

Available in abstract form only. Full text of publication follows: One of the main tasks of the radiation safety guarantee is non-admission of the excess over critical radiation levels. In Russia they are man-caused radiation levels. Meanwhile any radiation measurement represents total radioactivity. That is why it is hard to assess natural and man-caused contributions to total radioactivity. It is shown that soil radioactivity depends on natural factors including radioactivity of rocks and cosmic radiation as well as man-caused factors including nuclear and non-nuclear technologies. Whole totality of these factors includes unpredictable (non-deterministic) factors - nuclear explosions and radiation accidents,more » and predictable ones (deterministic) - all the rest. Deterministic factors represent background radioactivity whose trends is the base of the radiation forecast. Non-deterministic factors represent man-caused radiation treatment contribution which is to be controlled. This contribution is equal to the difference in measured radioactivity and radiation background. The way of calculation of background radioactivity is proposed. Contemporary soils are complicated technologically influenced systems with multi-leveled spatial and temporary inhomogeneity of radionuclides distribution. Generally analysis area can be characterized by any set of factors of soil radioactivity including natural and man-caused factors. Natural factors are cosmic radiation and radioactivity of rocks. Man-caused factors are shown on Fig. 1. It is obvious that man-caused radioactivity is due to both artificial and natural emitters. Any result of radiation measurement represents total radioactivity i.e. the sum of activities resulting from natural and man-caused emitters. There is no gauge which could separately measure natural and man-caused radioactivity. That is why it is so hard to assess natural and man-caused contributions to soil radioactivity. It would have been possible if human activity had led to contamination of soil only by artificial radionuclides. But we can view a totality of soil radioactivity factors in the following way. (author)« less
ACCELERATING FUSION REACTOR NEUTRONICS MODELING BY AUTOMATIC COUPLING OF HYBRID MONTE CARLO/DETERMINISTIC TRANSPORT ON CAD GEOMETRY

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Biondo, Elliott D; Ibrahim, Ahmad M; Mosher, Scott W

2015-01-01

Detailed radiation transport calculations are necessary for many aspects of the design of fusion energy systems (FES) such as ensuring occupational safety, assessing the activation of system components for waste disposal, and maintaining cryogenic temperatures within superconducting magnets. Hybrid Monte Carlo (MC)/deterministic techniques are necessary for this analysis because FES are large, heavily shielded, and contain streaming paths that can only be resolved with MC. The tremendous complexity of FES necessitates the use of CAD geometry for design and analysis. Previous ITER analysis has required the translation of CAD geometry to MCNP5 form in order to use the AutomateD VAriaNcemore » reducTion Generator (ADVANTG) for hybrid MC/deterministic transport. In this work, ADVANTG was modified to support CAD geometry, allowing hybrid (MC)/deterministic transport to be done automatically and eliminating the need for this translation step. This was done by adding a new ray tracing routine to ADVANTG for CAD geometries using the Direct Accelerated Geometry Monte Carlo (DAGMC) software library. This new capability is demonstrated with a prompt dose rate calculation for an ITER computational benchmark problem using both the Consistent Adjoint Driven Importance Sampling (CADIS) method an the Forward Weighted (FW)-CADIS method. The variance reduction parameters produced by ADVANTG are shown to be the same using CAD geometry and standard MCNP5 geometry. Significant speedups were observed for both neutrons (as high as a factor of 7.1) and photons (as high as a factor of 59.6).« less
Integrated Arrival and Departure Schedule Optimization Under Uncertainty

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xue, Min; Zelinski, Shannon

2014-01-01

In terminal airspace, integrating arrivals and departures with shared waypoints provides the potential of improving operational efficiency by allowing direct routes when possible. Incorporating stochastic evaluation as a post-analysis process of deterministic optimization, and imposing a safety buffer in deterministic optimization, are two ways to learn and alleviate the impact of uncertainty and to avoid unexpected outcomes. This work presents a third and direct way to take uncertainty into consideration during the optimization. The impact of uncertainty was incorporated into cost evaluations when searching for the optimal solutions. The controller intervention count was computed using a heuristic model and served as another stochastic cost besides total delay. Costs under uncertainty were evaluated using Monte Carlo simulations. The Pareto fronts that contain a set of solutions were identified and the trade-off between delays and controller intervention count was shown. Solutions that shared similar delays but had different intervention counts were investigated. The results showed that optimization under uncertainty could identify compromise solutions on Pareto fonts, which is better than deterministic optimization with extra safety buffers. It helps decision-makers reduce controller intervention while achieving low delays.
Seismic Hazard Analysis — Quo vadis?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klügel, Jens-Uwe

2008-05-01

The paper is dedicated to the review of methods of seismic hazard analysis currently in use, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. The review is performed from the perspective of a user of the results of seismic hazard analysis for different applications such as the design of critical and general (non-critical) civil infrastructures, technical and financial risk analysis. A set of criteria is developed for and applied to an objective assessment of the capabilities of different analysis methods. It is demonstrated that traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods have significant deficiencies, thus limiting their practical applications. These deficiencies have their roots in the use of inadequate probabilistic models and insufficient understanding of modern concepts of risk analysis, as have been revealed in some recent large scale studies. These deficiencies result in the lack of ability of a correct treatment of dependencies between physical parameters and finally, in an incorrect treatment of uncertainties. As a consequence, results of PSHA studies have been found to be unrealistic in comparison with empirical information from the real world. The attempt to compensate these problems by a systematic use of expert elicitation has, so far, not resulted in any improvement of the situation. It is also shown that scenario-earthquakes developed by disaggregation from the results of a traditional PSHA may not be conservative with respect to energy conservation and should not be used for the design of critical infrastructures without validation. Because the assessment of technical as well as of financial risks associated with potential damages of earthquakes need a risk analysis, current method is based on a probabilistic approach with its unsolved deficiencies. Traditional deterministic or scenario-based seismic hazard analysis methods provide a reliable and in general robust design basis for applications such as the design of critical infrastructures, especially with systematic sensitivity analyses based on validated phenomenological models. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis incorporates uncertainties in the safety factors. These factors are derived from experience as well as from expert judgment. Deterministic methods associated with high safety factors may lead to too conservative results, especially if applied for generally short-lived civil structures. Scenarios used in deterministic seismic hazard analysis have a clear physical basis. They are related to seismic sources discovered by geological, geomorphologic, geodetic and seismological investigations or derived from historical references. Scenario-based methods can be expanded for risk analysis applications with an extended data analysis providing the frequency of seismic events. Such an extension provides a better informed risk model that is suitable for risk-informed decision making.
Health safety nets can break cycles of poverty and disease: a stochastic ecological model

PubMed Central

Pluciński, Mateusz M.; Ngonghala, Calistus N.; Bonds, Matthew H.

2011-01-01

The persistence of extreme poverty is increasingly attributed to dynamic interactions between biophysical processes and economics, though there remains a dearth of integrated theoretical frameworks that can inform policy. Here, we present a stochastic model of disease-driven poverty traps. Whereas deterministic models can result in poverty traps that can only be broken by substantial external changes to the initial conditions, in the stochastic model there is always some probability that a population will leave or enter a poverty trap. We show that a ‘safety net’, defined as an externally enforced minimum level of health or economic conditions, can guarantee ultimate escape from a poverty trap, even if the safety net is set within the basin of attraction of the poverty trap, and even if the safety net is only in the form of a public health measure. Whereas the deterministic model implies that small improvements in initial conditions near the poverty-trap equilibrium are futile, the stochastic model suggests that the impact of changes in the location of the safety net on the rate of development may be strongest near the poverty-trap equilibrium. PMID:21593026
The Role of Probabilistic Design Analysis Methods in Safety and Affordability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Safie, Fayssal M.

2016-01-01

For the last several years, NASA and its contractors have been working together to build space launch systems to commercialize space. Developing commercial affordable and safe launch systems becomes very important and requires a paradigm shift. This paradigm shift enforces the need for an integrated systems engineering environment where cost, safety, reliability, and performance need to be considered to optimize the launch system design. In such an environment, rule based and deterministic engineering design practices alone may not be sufficient to optimize margins and fault tolerance to reduce cost. As a result, introduction of Probabilistic Design Analysis (PDA) methods to support the current deterministic engineering design practices becomes a necessity to reduce cost without compromising reliability and safety. This paper discusses the importance of PDA methods in NASA's new commercial environment, their applications, and the key role they can play in designing reliable, safe, and affordable launch systems. More specifically, this paper discusses: 1) The involvement of NASA in PDA 2) Why PDA is needed 3) A PDA model structure 4) A PDA example application 5) PDA link to safety and affordability.
Adequacy of the default values for skin surface area used for risk assessment and French anthropometric data by a probabilistic approach.

PubMed

Dornic, N; Ficheux, A S; Bernard, A; Roudot, A C

2017-08-01

The notes of guidance for the testing of cosmetic ingredients and their safety evaluation by the Scientific Committee on Consumer Safety (SCCS) is a document dedicated to ensuring the safety of European consumers. This contains useful data for risk assessment such as default values for Skin Surface Area (SSA). A more in-depth study of anthropometric data across Europe reveals considerable variations. The default SSA value was derived from a study on the Dutch population, which is known to be one of the tallest nations in the World. This value could be inadequate for shorter populations of Europe. Data were collected in a survey on cosmetic consumption in France. Probabilistic treatment of these data and analysis of the case of methylisothiazolinone, a sensitizer recently evaluated by a deterministic approach submitted to SCCS, suggest that the default value for SSA used in the quantitative risk assessment might not be relevant for a significant share of the French female population. Others female populations of Southern Europe may also be excluded. This is of importance given that some studies show an increasing risk of developping skin sensitization among women. The disparities in anthropometric data across Europe should be taken into consideration. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
The Study of the Relationship between Probabilistic Design and Axiomatic Design Methodology. Volume 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Onwubiko, Chin-Yere; Onyebueke, Landon

1996-01-01

The structural design, or the design of machine elements, has been traditionally based on deterministic design methodology. The deterministic method considers all design parameters to be known with certainty. This methodology is, therefore, inadequate to design complex structures that are subjected to a variety of complex, severe loading conditions. A nonlinear behavior that is dependent on stress, stress rate, temperature, number of load cycles, and time is observed on all components subjected to complex conditions. These complex conditions introduce uncertainties; hence, the actual factor of safety margin remains unknown. In the deterministic methodology, the contingency of failure is discounted; hence, there is a use of a high factor of safety. It may be most useful in situations where the design structures are simple. The probabilistic method is concerned with the probability of non-failure performance of structures or machine elements. It is much more useful in situations where the design is characterized by complex geometry, possibility of catastrophic failure, sensitive loads and material properties. Also included: Comparative Study of the use of AGMA Geometry Factors and Probabilistic Design Methodology in the Design of Compact Spur Gear Set.
Illustrated structural application of universal first-order reliability method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Verderaime, V.

1994-01-01

The general application of the proposed first-order reliability method was achieved through the universal normalization of engineering probability distribution data. The method superimposes prevailing deterministic techniques and practices on the first-order reliability method to surmount deficiencies of the deterministic method and provide benefits of reliability techniques and predictions. A reliability design factor is derived from the reliability criterion to satisfy a specified reliability and is analogous to the deterministic safety factor. Its application is numerically illustrated on several practical structural design and verification cases with interesting results and insights. Two concepts of reliability selection criteria are suggested. Though the method was developed to support affordable structures for access to space, the method should also be applicable for most high-performance air and surface transportation systems.

Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures Guide for NASA Managers and Practitioners (Second Edition)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stamatelatos,Michael; Dezfuli, Homayoon; Apostolakis, George; Everline, Chester; Guarro, Sergio; Mathias, Donovan; Mosleh, Ali; Paulos, Todd; Riha, David; Smith, Curtis;

2011-01-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a comprehensive, structured, and logical analysis method aimed at identifying and assessing risks in complex technological systems for the purpose of cost-effectively improving their safety and performance. NASA's objective is to better understand and effectively manage risk, and thus more effectively ensure mission and programmatic success, and to achieve and maintain high safety standards at NASA. NASA intends to use risk assessment in its programs and projects to support optimal management decision making for the improvement of safety and program performance. In addition to using quantitative/probabilistic risk assessment to improve safety and enhance the safety decision process, NASA has incorporated quantitative risk assessment into its system safety assessment process, which until now has relied primarily on a qualitative representation of risk. Also, NASA has recently adopted the Risk-Informed Decision Making (RIDM) process [1-1] as a valuable addition to supplement existing deterministic and experience-based engineering methods and tools. Over the years, NASA has been a leader in most of the technologies it has employed in its programs. One would think that PRA should be no exception. In fact, it would be natural for NASA to be a leader in PRA because, as a technology pioneer, NASA uses risk assessment and management implicitly or explicitly on a daily basis. NASA has probabilistic safety requirements (thresholds and goals) for crew transportation system missions to the International Space Station (ISS) [1-2]. NASA intends to have probabilistic requirements for any new human spaceflight transportation system acquisition. Methods to perform risk and reliability assessment in the early 1960s originated in U.S. aerospace and missile programs. Fault tree analysis (FTA) is an example. It would have been a reasonable extrapolation to expect that NASA would also become the world leader in the application of PRA. That was, however, not to happen. Early in the Apollo program, estimates of the probability for a successful roundtrip human mission to the moon yielded disappointingly low (and suspect) values and NASA became discouraged from further performing quantitative risk analyses until some two decades later when the methods were more refined, rigorous, and repeatable. Instead, NASA decided to rely primarily on the Hazard Analysis (HA) and Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) methods for system safety assessment.

Impact assessment of extreme storm events using a Bayesian network

USGS Publications Warehouse

den Heijer, C.(Kees); Knipping, Dirk T.J.A.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; van Thiel de Vries, Jaap S. M.; Baart, Fedor; van Gelder, Pieter H. A. J. M.

2012-01-01

This paper describes an investigation on the usefulness of Bayesian Networks in the safety assessment of dune coasts. A network has been created that predicts the erosion volume based on hydraulic boundary conditions and a number of cross-shore profile indicators. Field measurement data along a large part of the Dutch coast has been used to train the network. Corresponding storm impact on the dunes was calculated with an empirical dune erosion model named duros+. Comparison between the Bayesian Network predictions and the original duros+ results, here considered as observations, results in a skill up to 0.88, provided that the training data covers the range of predictions. Hence, the predictions from a deterministic model (duros+) can be captured in a probabilistic model (Bayesian Network) such that both the process knowledge and uncertainties can be included in impact and vulnerability assessments.
Comments on pesticide risk assessment by the revision of Directive EU 91/414.

PubMed

Balderacchi, Matteo; Trevisan, Marco

2010-03-01

Human health and the environment are major concerns for European Commission policy on the authorisation of plant protection products. The new regulation that revises and replaces the directive 91/414/EC moves towards the adoption of a Persistent Bioaccumulation Toxicity cutoff criterion because current pesticide risk assessment (PRA) is deterministic, based on few standard cases and therefore characterised by uncertainty. This revision could create concerns about sustainability. This paper analyses some effects of this directive on the agrochemical market and assumes new effects resulting from the introduction of the revision. Suggestions are made as to how pesticide risk assessment will have to adapt to answer the request of legislators on safety standards and sustainability, introducing probabilistic PRA. Toxicity and exposure functions will be fully characterised, producing distributions of predicted impact and quantifying the variability and uncertainty. For adopting PRA studies at the local/catchment scale, new assessment schemes will be necessary.
Landslide prediction using combined deterministic and probabilistic methods in hilly area of Mt. Medvednica in Zagreb City, Croatia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Chunxiang; Watanabe, Naoki; Marui, Hideaki

2013-04-01

The hilly slopes of Mt. Medvednica are stretched in the northwestern part of Zagreb City, Croatia, and extend to approximately 180km2. In this area, landslides, e.g. Kostanjek landslide and Črešnjevec landslide, have brought damage to many houses, roads, farmlands, grassland and etc. Therefore, it is necessary to predict the potential landslides and to enhance landslide inventory for hazard mitigation and security management of local society in this area. We combined deterministic method and probabilistic method to assess potential landslides including their locations, size and sliding surfaces. Firstly, this study area is divided into several slope units that have similar topographic and geological characteristics using the hydrology analysis tool in ArcGIS. Then, a GIS-based modified three-dimensional Hovland's method for slope stability analysis system is developed to identify the sliding surface and corresponding three-dimensional safety factor for each slope unit. Each sliding surface is assumed to be the lower part of each ellipsoid. The direction of inclination of the ellipsoid is considered to be the same as the main dip direction of the slope unit. The center point of the ellipsoid is randomly set to the center point of a grid cell in the slope unit. The minimum three-dimensional safety factor and corresponding critical sliding surface are also obtained for each slope unit. Thirdly, since a single value of safety factor is insufficient to evaluate the slope stability of a slope unit, the ratio of the number of calculation cases in which the three-dimensional safety factor values less than 1.0 to the total number of trial calculation is defined as the failure probability of the slope unit. If the failure probability is more than 80%, the slope unit is distinguished as 'unstable' from other slope units and the landslide hazard can be mapped for the whole study area.
Monte Carlo capabilities of the SCALE code system

DOE PAGES

Rearden, Bradley T.; Petrie, Jr., Lester M.; Peplow, Douglas E.; ...

2014-09-12

SCALE is a broadly used suite of tools for nuclear systems modeling and simulation that provides comprehensive, verified and validated, user-friendly capabilities for criticality safety, reactor physics, radiation shielding, and sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. For more than 30 years, regulators, licensees, and research institutions around the world have used SCALE for nuclear safety analysis and design. SCALE provides a “plug-and-play” framework that includes three deterministic and three Monte Carlo radiation transport solvers that can be selected based on the desired solution, including hybrid deterministic/Monte Carlo simulations. SCALE includes the latest nuclear data libraries for continuous-energy and multigroup radiation transport asmore » well as activation, depletion, and decay calculations. SCALE’s graphical user interfaces assist with accurate system modeling, visualization, and convenient access to desired results. SCALE 6.2 will provide several new capabilities and significant improvements in many existing features, especially with expanded continuous-energy Monte Carlo capabilities for criticality safety, shielding, depletion, and sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. Finally, an overview of the Monte Carlo capabilities of SCALE is provided here, with emphasis on new features for SCALE 6.2.« less
Safety design approach for external events in Japan sodium-cooled fast reactor

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yamano, H.; Kubo, S.; Tani, A.

2012-07-01

This paper describes a safety design approach for external events in the design study of Japan sodium-cooled fast reactor. An emphasis is introduction of a design extension external condition (DEEC). In addition to seismic design, other external events such as tsunami, strong wind, abnormal temperature, etc. were addressed in this study. From a wide variety of external events consisting of natural hazards and human-induced ones, a screening method was developed in terms of siting, consequence, frequency to select representative events. Design approaches for these events were categorized on the probabilistic, statistical and deterministic basis. External hazard conditions were considered mainlymore » for DEECs. In the probabilistic approach, the DEECs of earthquake, tsunami and strong wind were defined as 1/10 of exceedance probability of the external design bases. The other representative DEECs were also defined based on statistical or deterministic approaches. (authors)« less
Taking Control: Stealth Assessment of Deterministic Behaviors within a Game-Based System

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Snow, Erica L.; Likens, Aaron D.; Allen, Laura K.; McNamara, Danielle S.

2016-01-01

Game-based environments frequently afford students the opportunity to exert agency over their learning paths by making various choices within the environment. The combination of log data from these systems and dynamic methodologies may serve as a stealth means to assess how students behave (i.e., deterministic or random) within these learning…
Taking Control: Stealth Assessment of Deterministic Behaviors within a Game-Based System

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Snow, Erica L.; Likens, Aaron D.; Allen, Laura K.; McNamara, Danielle S.

2015-01-01

Game-based environments frequently afford students the opportunity to exert agency over their learning paths by making various choices within the environment. The combination of log data from these systems and dynamic methodologies may serve as a stealth means to assess how students behave (i.e., deterministic or random) within these learning…
Evaluation Seismicity west of block-lut for Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment of Shahdad ,Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ney, B.; Askari, M.

2009-04-01

Evaluation Seismicity west of block-lut for Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment of Shahdad ,Iran Behnoosh Neyestani , Mina Askari Students of Science and Research University,Iran. Seismic Hazard Assessment has been done for Shahdad city in this study , and four maps (Kerman-Bam-Nakhil Ab-Allah Abad) has been prepared to indicate the Deterministic estimate of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) in this area. Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment has been preformed for a region in eastern Iran (Shahdad) based on the available geological, seismological and geophysical information and seismic zoning map of region has been constructed. For this assessment first Seimotectonic map of study region in a radius of 100km is prepared using geological maps, distribution of historical and instrumental earthquake data and focal mechanism solutions it is used as the base map for delineation of potential seismic sources. After that minimum distance, for every seismic sources until site (Shahdad) and maximum magnitude for each source have been determined. In Shahdad ,according to results, peak ground acceleration using the Yoshimitsu Fukushima &Teiji Tanaka'1990 attenuation relationship is estimated to be 0.58 g, that is related to the movement of nayband fault with distance 2.4km of the site and maximum magnitude Ms=7.5.
Effect of quantum noise on deterministic remote state preparation of an arbitrary two-particle state via various quantum entangled channels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qu, Zhiguo; Wu, Shengyao; Wang, Mingming; Sun, Le; Wang, Xiaojun

2017-12-01

As one of important research branches of quantum communication, deterministic remote state preparation (DRSP) plays a significant role in quantum network. Quantum noises are prevalent in quantum communication, and it can seriously affect the safety and reliability of quantum communication system. In this paper, we study the effect of quantum noise on deterministic remote state preparation of an arbitrary two-particle state via different quantum channels including the χ state, Brown state and GHZ state. Firstly, the output states and fidelities of three DRSP algorithms via different quantum entangled channels in four noisy environments, including amplitude-damping, phase-damping, bit-flip and depolarizing noise, are presented, respectively. And then, the effects of noises on three kinds of preparation algorithms in the same noisy environment are discussed. In final, the theoretical analysis proves that the effect of noise in the process of quantum state preparation is only related to the noise type and the size of noise factor and independent of the different entangled quantum channels. Furthermore, another important conclusion is given that the effect of noise is also independent of how to distribute intermediate particles for implementing DRSP through quantum measurement during the concrete preparation process. These conclusions will be very helpful for improving the efficiency and safety of quantum communication in a noisy environment.
An overview of engineering concepts and current design algorithms for probabilistic structural analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duffy, S. F.; Hu, J.; Hopkins, D. A.

1995-01-01

The article begins by examining the fundamentals of traditional deterministic design philosophy. The initial section outlines the concepts of failure criteria and limit state functions two traditional notions that are embedded in deterministic design philosophy. This is followed by a discussion regarding safety factors (a possible limit state function) and the common utilization of statistical concepts in deterministic engineering design approaches. Next the fundamental aspects of a probabilistic failure analysis are explored and it is shown that deterministic design concepts mentioned in the initial portion of the article are embedded in probabilistic design methods. For components fabricated from ceramic materials (and other similarly brittle materials) the probabilistic design approach yields the widely used Weibull analysis after suitable assumptions are incorporated. The authors point out that Weibull analysis provides the rare instance where closed form solutions are available for a probabilistic failure analysis. Since numerical methods are usually required to evaluate component reliabilities, a section on Monte Carlo methods is included to introduce the concept. The article concludes with a presentation of the technical aspects that support the numerical method known as fast probability integration (FPI). This includes a discussion of the Hasofer-Lind and Rackwitz-Fiessler approximations.
Real-time logic modelling on SpaceWire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Qiang; Ma, Yunpeng; Fei, Haidong; Wang, Xingyou

2017-04-01

A SpaceWire is a standard for on-board satellite networks as the basis for future data-handling architectures. However, it cannot meet the deterministic requirement for safety/time critical application in spacecraft, where the delay of real-time (RT) message streams must be guaranteed. Therefore, SpaceWire-D is developed that provides deterministic delivery over a SpaceWire network. Formal analysis and verification of real-time systems is critical to their development and safe implementation, and is a prerequisite for obtaining their safety certification. Failure to meet specified timing constraints such as deadlines in hard real-time systems may lead to catastrophic results. In this paper, a formal verification method, Real-Time Logic (RTL), has been proposed to specify and verify timing properties of SpaceWire-D network. Based on the principal of SpaceWire-D protocol, we firstly analyze the timing properties of fundamental transactions, such as RMAP WRITE, and RMAP READ. After that, the RMAP WRITE transaction structure is modeled in Real-Time Logic (RTL) and Presburger Arithmetic representations. And then, the associated constraint graph and safety analysis is provided. Finally, it is suggested that RTL method can be useful for the protocol evaluation and provision of recommendation for further protocol evolutions.
Methodology for assessing the safety of Hydrogen Systems: HyRAM 1.1 technical reference manual

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Groth, Katrina; Hecht, Ethan; Reynolds, John Thomas

The HyRAM software toolkit provides a basis for conducting quantitative risk assessment and consequence modeling for hydrogen infrastructure and transportation systems. HyRAM is designed to facilitate the use of state-of-the-art science and engineering models to conduct robust, repeatable assessments of hydrogen safety, hazards, and risk. HyRAM is envisioned as a unifying platform combining validated, analytical models of hydrogen behavior, a stan- dardized, transparent QRA approach, and engineering models and generic data for hydrogen installations. HyRAM is being developed at Sandia National Laboratories for the U. S. De- partment of Energy to increase access to technical data about hydrogen safety andmore » to enable the use of that data to support development and revision of national and international codes and standards. This document provides a description of the methodology and models contained in the HyRAM version 1.1. HyRAM 1.1 includes generic probabilities for hydrogen equipment fail- ures, probabilistic models for the impact of heat flux on humans and structures, and computa- tionally and experimentally validated analytical and first order models of hydrogen release and flame physics. HyRAM 1.1 integrates deterministic and probabilistic models for quantifying accident scenarios, predicting physical effects, and characterizing hydrogen hazards (thermal effects from jet fires, overpressure effects from deflagrations), and assessing impact on people and structures. HyRAM is a prototype software in active development and thus the models and data may change. This report will be updated at appropriate developmental intervals.« less
Physically-based landslide assessment for railway infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heyerdahl, Håkon; Høydal, Øyvind

2017-04-01

A new high-speed railway line in Eastern Norway passes through areas with Quaternary soil deposits where stability of natural slopes poses considerable challenges. The ground typically consist of thick layers of marine clay deposits, overlain by 8-10 m of silt and sand. Both shallow landslides in the top layers of silt and sand and deep-seated failures in clay must be accounted for. In one section of the railway, the potential for performing stabilizing measures is limited due to existing cultural heritage on top of the slope. Hence, the stability of a steep top section of the slope needs to be evaluated. Assessment of the slope stability for rainfall-triggered slides relies on many parameters. An approach based only on empirical relations will not comply with the design criteria, which only allows deterministic safety margins. From a classic geotechnical approach, the slope would also normally be considered unsafe. However, considerable suction is assumed to exist in the silty and sandy deposits above ground-water level, which will improve the stability. The stabilizing effect however is highly dependent on rainfall, infiltration and soil moisture, and thereby varies continuously. An unsaturated geomechanical approach was taken to assess the slope stability. Soil moisture sensors were installed to monitor changes of in situ water content in the vadose zone. Retention curves for silt/sand specimens samples were measured by pressure plate tests. Some triaxial tests soil strength were performed to check the effect of suction on soil shear strength (performed as drained constant water content tests on compacted specimens). Based on the performed laboratory tests, the unsaturated response of the slope will be modelled numerically and compared with measured soil moisture in situ. Work is still on-going. Initial conditions after respectively dry and wet periods need to be coupled with selected rainfall intensities and duration to see the effect on slope stability. The aim of the work is to reach a result informing the client about the probability of a landslide in the slope, based on expected critical rainfall. A strictly deterministic criterion for minimum safety margin may need to be replaced by scenarios for probability and geometry of potential failures for given return periods and rainfall events.
Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment of Center-East IRAN (55.5-58.5˚ E, 29-31˚ N)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Askari, M.; Ney, Beh

2009-04-01

Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment of Center-East IRAN (55.5-58.5˚E, 29-31˚N) Mina Askari, Behnoosh Neyestani Students of Science and Research University,Iran. Deterministic seismic hazard assessment has been performed in Center-East IRAN, including Kerman and adjacent regions of 100km is selected. A catalogue of earthquakes in the region, including historical earthquakes and instrumental earthquakes is provided. A total of 25 potential seismic source zones in the region delineated as area sources for seismic hazard assessment based on geological, seismological and geophysical information, then minimum distance for every seismic sources until site (Kerman) and maximum magnitude for each source have been determined, eventually using the N. A. ABRAHAMSON and J. J. LITEHISER '1989 attenuation relationship, maximum acceleration is estimated to be 0.38g, that is related to the movement of blind fault with maximum magnitude of this source is Ms=5.5.
Adequacy assessment of composite generation and transmission systems incorporating wind energy conversion systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Yi

The development and utilization of wind energy for satisfying electrical demand has received considerable attention in recent years due to its tremendous environmental, social and economic benefits, together with public support and government incentives. Electric power generation from wind energy behaves quite differently from that of conventional sources. The fundamentally different operating characteristics of wind energy facilities therefore affect power system reliability in a different manner than those of conventional systems. The reliability impact of such a highly variable energy source is an important aspect that must be assessed when the wind power penetration is significant. The focus of the research described in this thesis is on the utilization of state sampling Monte Carlo simulation in wind integrated bulk electric system reliability analysis and the application of these concepts in system planning and decision making. Load forecast uncertainty is an important factor in long range planning and system development. This thesis describes two approximate approaches developed to reduce the number of steps in a load duration curve which includes load forecast uncertainty, and to provide reasonably accurate generating and bulk system reliability index predictions. The developed approaches are illustrated by application to two composite test systems. A method of generating correlated random numbers with uniform distributions and a specified correlation coefficient in the state sampling method is proposed and used to conduct adequacy assessment in generating systems and in bulk electric systems containing correlated wind farms in this thesis. The studies described show that it is possible to use the state sampling Monte Carlo simulation technique to quantitatively assess the reliability implications associated with adding wind power to a composite generation and transmission system including the effects of multiple correlated wind sites. This is an important development as it permits correlated wind farms to be incorporated in large practical system studies without requiring excessive increases in computer solution time. The procedures described in this thesis for creating monthly and seasonal wind farm models should prove useful in situations where time period models are required to incorporate scheduled maintenance of generation and transmission facilities. There is growing interest in combining deterministic considerations with probabilistic assessment in order to evaluate the quantitative system risk and conduct bulk power system planning. A relatively new approach that incorporates deterministic and probabilistic considerations in a single risk assessment framework has been designated as the joint deterministic-probabilistic approach. The research work described in this thesis illustrates that the joint deterministic-probabilistic approach can be effectively used to integrate wind power in bulk electric system planning. The studies described in this thesis show that the application of the joint deterministic-probabilistic method provides more stringent results for a system with wind power than the traditional deterministic N-1 method because the joint deterministic-probabilistic technique is driven by the deterministic N-1 criterion with an added probabilistic perspective which recognizes the power output characteristics of a wind turbine generator.
Development of a category 2 approach system model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, W. A.; Mcruer, D. T.

1972-01-01

An analytical model is presented which provides, as its primary output, the probability of a successful Category II approach. Typical applications are included using several example systems (manual and automatic) which are subjected to random gusts and deterministic wind shear. The primary purpose of the approach system model is to establish a structure containing the system elements, command inputs, disturbances, and their interactions in an analytical framework so that the relative effects of changes in the various system elements on precision of control and available margins of safety can be estimated. The model is intended to provide insight for the design and integration of suitable autopilot, display, and navigation elements; and to assess the interaction of such elements with the pilot/copilot.
A hybrid multi-objective imperialist competitive algorithm and Monte Carlo method for robust safety design of a rail vehicle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nejlaoui, Mohamed; Houidi, Ajmi; Affi, Zouhaier; Romdhane, Lotfi

2017-10-01

This paper deals with the robust safety design optimization of a rail vehicle system moving in short radius curved tracks. A combined multi-objective imperialist competitive algorithm and Monte Carlo method is developed and used for the robust multi-objective optimization of the rail vehicle system. This robust optimization of rail vehicle safety considers simultaneously the derailment angle and its standard deviation where the design parameters uncertainties are considered. The obtained results showed that the robust design reduces significantly the sensitivity of the rail vehicle safety to the design parameters uncertainties compared to the determinist one and to the literature results.
Analyzing simulation-based PRA data through traditional and topological clustering: A BWR station blackout case study

DOE PAGES

Maljovec, D.; Liu, S.; Wang, B.; ...

2015-07-14

Here, dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (DPRA) methodologies couple system simulator codes (e.g., RELAP and MELCOR) with simulation controller codes (e.g., RAVEN and ADAPT). Whereas system simulator codes model system dynamics deterministically, simulation controller codes introduce both deterministic (e.g., system control logic and operating procedures) and stochastic (e.g., component failures and parameter uncertainties) elements into the simulation. Typically, a DPRA is performed by sampling values of a set of parameters and simulating the system behavior for that specific set of parameter values. For complex systems, a major challenge in using DPRA methodologies is to analyze the large number of scenarios generated,more » where clustering techniques are typically employed to better organize and interpret the data. In this paper, we focus on the analysis of two nuclear simulation datasets that are part of the risk-informed safety margin characterization (RISMC) boiling water reactor (BWR) station blackout (SBO) case study. We provide the domain experts a software tool that encodes traditional and topological clustering techniques within an interactive analysis and visualization environment, for understanding the structures of such high-dimensional nuclear simulation datasets. We demonstrate through our case study that both types of clustering techniques complement each other for enhanced structural understanding of the data.« less
Feedback from uncertainties propagation research projects conducted in different hydraulic fields: outcomes for engineering projects and nuclear safety assessment.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bacchi, Vito; Duluc, Claire-Marie; Bertrand, Nathalie; Bardet, Lise

2017-04-01

In recent years, in the context of hydraulic risk assessment, much effort has been put into the development of sophisticated numerical model systems able reproducing surface flow field. These numerical models are based on a deterministic approach and the results are presented in terms of measurable quantities (water depths, flow velocities, etc…). However, the modelling of surface flows involves numerous uncertainties associated both to the numerical structure of the model, to the knowledge of the physical parameters which force the system and to the randomness inherent to natural phenomena. As a consequence, dealing with uncertainties can be a difficult task for both modelers and decision-makers [Ioss, 2011]. In the context of nuclear safety, IRSN assesses studies conducted by operators for different reference flood situations (local rain, small or large watershed flooding, sea levels, etc…), that are defined in the guide ASN N°13 [ASN, 2013]. The guide provides some recommendations to deal with uncertainties, by proposing a specific conservative approach to cover hydraulic modelling uncertainties. Depending of the situation, the influencing parameter might be the Strickler coefficient, levee behavior, simplified topographic assumptions, etc. Obviously, identifying the most influencing parameter and giving it a penalizing value is challenging and usually questionable. In this context, IRSN conducted cooperative (Compagnie Nationale du Rhone, I-CiTy laboratory of Polytech'Nice, Atomic Energy Commission, Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières) research activities since 2011 in order to investigate feasibility and benefits of Uncertainties Analysis (UA) and Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) when applied to hydraulic modelling. A specific methodology was tested by using the computational environment Promethee, developed by IRSN, which allows carrying out uncertainties propagation study. This methodology was applied with various numerical models and in different contexts, as river flooding on the Rhône River (Nguyen et al., 2015) and on the Garonne River, for the studying of local rainfall (Abily et al., 2016) or for tsunami generation, in the framework of the ANR-research project TANDEM. The feedback issued from these previous studies is analyzed (technical problems, limitations, interesting results, etc…) and the perspectives and a discussion on how a probabilistic approach of uncertainties should improve the actual deterministic methodology for risk assessment (also for other engineering applications) will be finally given.

CPT-based probabilistic and deterministic assessment of in situ seismic soil liquefaction potential

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moss, R.E.S.; Seed, R.B.; Kayen, R.E.; Stewart, J.P.; Der Kiureghian, A.; Cetin, K.O.

2006-01-01

This paper presents a complete methodology for both probabilistic and deterministic assessment of seismic soil liquefaction triggering potential based on the cone penetration test (CPT). A comprehensive worldwide set of CPT-based liquefaction field case histories were compiled and back analyzed, and the data then used to develop probabilistic triggering correlations. Issues investigated in this study include improved normalization of CPT resistance measurements for the influence of effective overburden stress, and adjustment to CPT tip resistance for the potential influence of "thin" liquefiable layers. The effects of soil type and soil character (i.e., "fines" adjustment) for the new correlations are based on a combination of CPT tip and sleeve resistance. To quantify probability for performancebased engineering applications, Bayesian "regression" methods were used, and the uncertainties of all variables comprising both the seismic demand and the liquefaction resistance were estimated and included in the analysis. The resulting correlations were developed using a Bayesian framework and are presented in both probabilistic and deterministic formats. The results are compared to previous probabilistic and deterministic correlations. ?? 2006 ASCE.
Current issues and actions in radiation protection of patients.

PubMed

Holmberg, Ola; Malone, Jim; Rehani, Madan; McLean, Donald; Czarwinski, Renate

2010-10-01

Medical application of ionizing radiation is a massive and increasing activity globally. While the use of ionizing radiation in medicine brings tremendous benefits to the global population, the associated risks due to stochastic and deterministic effects make it necessary to protect patients from potential harm. Current issues in radiation protection of patients include not only the rapidly increasing collective dose to the global population from medical exposure, but also that a substantial percentage of diagnostic imaging examinations are unnecessary, and the cumulative dose to individuals from medical exposure is growing. In addition to this, continued reports on deterministic injuries from safety related events in the medical use of ionizing radiation are raising awareness on the necessity for accident prevention measures. The International Atomic Energy Agency is engaged in several activities to reverse the negative trends of these current issues, including improvement of the justification process, the tracking of radiation history of individual patients, shared learning of safety significant events, and the use of comprehensive quality audits in the clinical environment. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
On-line crack prognosis in attachment lug using Lamb wave-deterministic resampling particle filter-based method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Shenfang; Chen, Jian; Yang, Weibo; Qiu, Lei

2017-08-01

Fatigue crack growth prognosis is important for prolonging service time, improving safety, and reducing maintenance cost in many safety-critical systems, such as in aircraft, wind turbines, bridges, and nuclear plants. Combining fatigue crack growth models with the particle filter (PF) method has proved promising to deal with the uncertainties during fatigue crack growth and reach a more accurate prognosis. However, research on prognosis methods integrating on-line crack monitoring with the PF method is still lacking, as well as experimental verifications. Besides, the PF methods adopted so far are almost all sequential importance resampling-based PFs, which usually encounter sample impoverishment problems, and hence performs poorly. To solve these problems, in this paper, the piezoelectric transducers (PZTs)-based active Lamb wave method is adopted for on-line crack monitoring. The deterministic resampling PF (DRPF) is proposed to be used in fatigue crack growth prognosis, which can overcome the sample impoverishment problem. The proposed method is verified through fatigue tests of attachment lugs, which are a kind of important joint component in aerospace systems.
Performance assessment of deterministic and probabilistic weather predictions for the short-term optimization of a tropical hydropower reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mainardi Fan, Fernando; Schwanenberg, Dirk; Alvarado, Rodolfo; Assis dos Reis, Alberto; Naumann, Steffi; Collischonn, Walter

2016-04-01

Hydropower is the most important electricity source in Brazil. During recent years, it accounted for 60% to 70% of the total electric power supply. Marginal costs of hydropower are lower than for thermal power plants, therefore, there is a strong economic motivation to maximize its share. On the other hand, hydropower depends on the availability of water, which has a natural variability. Its extremes lead to the risks of power production deficits during droughts and safety issues in the reservoir and downstream river reaches during flood events. One building block of the proper management of hydropower assets is the short-term forecast of reservoir inflows as input for an online, event-based optimization of its release strategy. While deterministic forecasts and optimization schemes are the established techniques for the short-term reservoir management, the use of probabilistic ensemble forecasts and stochastic optimization techniques receives growing attention and a number of researches have shown its benefit. The present work shows one of the first hindcasting and closed-loop control experiments for a multi-purpose hydropower reservoir in a tropical region in Brazil. The case study is the hydropower project (HPP) Três Marias, located in southeast Brazil. The HPP reservoir is operated with two main objectives: (i) hydroelectricity generation and (ii) flood control at Pirapora City located 120 km downstream of the dam. In the experiments, precipitation forecasts based on observed data, deterministic and probabilistic forecasts with 50 ensemble members of the ECMWF are used as forcing of the MGB-IPH hydrological model to generate streamflow forecasts over a period of 2 years. The online optimization depends on a deterministic and multi-stage stochastic version of a model predictive control scheme. Results for the perfect forecasts show the potential benefit of the online optimization and indicate a desired forecast lead time of 30 days. In comparison, the use of actual forecasts with shorter lead times of up to 15 days shows the practical benefit of actual operational data. It appears that the use of stochastic optimization combined with ensemble forecasts leads to a significant higher level of flood protection without compromising the HPP's energy production.
Temporary Blinding Limits versus Maximum Permissible Exposure - A Paradigm Change in Risk Assessment for Visible Optical Radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reidenbach, Hans-Dieter

Safety considerations in the field of laser radiation have traditionally been restricted to maximum permissible exposure levels defined as a function of wavelength and exposure duration. But in Europe according to the European Directive 2006/25/EC on artificial optical radiation the employer has to include in his risk assessment indirect effects from temporary blinding. Whereas sufficient knowledge on various deterministic risks exists, only sparse quantitative data is available for the impairment of visual functions due to temporary blinding from visible optical radiation. The consideration of indirect effects corresponds to a paradigm change in risk assessment when situations have to be treated, where intrabeam viewing of low-power laser radiation is likely or other non-coherent visible radiation might influence certain visual tasks. In order to obtain a sufficient basis for the assessment of certain situations, investigations of the functional relationships between wavelength, exposure time and optical power and the resulting interference on visual functions have been performed and the results are reported. The duration of a visual disturbance is thus predictable. In addition, preliminary information on protective measures is given.
The concerted calculation of the BN-600 reactor for the deterministic and stochastic codes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bogdanova, E. V.; Kuznetsov, A. N.

2017-01-01

The solution of the problem of increasing the safety of nuclear power plants implies the existence of complete and reliable information about the processes occurring in the core of a working reactor. Nowadays the Monte-Carlo method is the most general-purpose method used to calculate the neutron-physical characteristic of the reactor. But it is characterized by large time of calculation. Therefore, it may be useful to carry out coupled calculations with stochastic and deterministic codes. This article presents the results of research for possibility of combining stochastic and deterministic algorithms in calculation the reactor BN-600. This is only one part of the work, which was carried out in the framework of the graduation project at the NRC “Kurchatov Institute” in cooperation with S. S. Gorodkov and M. A. Kalugin. It is considering the 2-D layer of the BN-600 reactor core from the international benchmark test, published in the report IAEA-TECDOC-1623. Calculations of the reactor were performed with MCU code and then with a standard operative diffusion algorithm with constants taken from the Monte - Carlo computation. Macro cross-section, diffusion coefficients, the effective multiplication factor and the distribution of neutron flux and power were obtained in 15 energy groups. The reasonable agreement between stochastic and deterministic calculations of the BN-600 is observed.
Probabilistic versus deterministic hazard assessment in liquefaction susceptible zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daminelli, Rosastella; Gerosa, Daniele; Marcellini, Alberto; Tento, Alberto

2015-04-01

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), usually adopted in the framework of seismic codes redaction, is based on Poissonian description of the temporal occurrence, negative exponential distribution of magnitude and attenuation relationship with log-normal distribution of PGA or response spectrum. The main positive aspect of this approach stems into the fact that is presently a standard for the majority of countries, but there are weak points in particular regarding the physical description of the earthquake phenomenon. Factors like site effects, source characteristics like duration of the strong motion and directivity that could significantly influence the expected motion at the site are not taken into account by PSHA. Deterministic models can better evaluate the ground motion at a site from a physical point of view, but its prediction reliability depends on the degree of knowledge of the source, wave propagation and soil parameters. We compare these two approaches in selected sites affected by the May 2012 Emilia-Romagna and Lombardia earthquake, that caused widespread liquefaction phenomena unusually for magnitude less than 6. We focus on sites liquefiable because of their soil mechanical parameters and water table level. Our analysis shows that the choice between deterministic and probabilistic hazard analysis is strongly dependent on site conditions. The looser the soil and the higher the liquefaction potential, the more suitable is the deterministic approach. Source characteristics, in particular the duration of strong ground motion, have long since recognized as relevant to induce liquefaction; unfortunately a quantitative prediction of these parameters appears very unlikely, dramatically reducing the possibility of their adoption in hazard assessment. Last but not least, the economic factors are relevant in the choice of the approach. The case history of 2012 Emilia-Romagna and Lombardia earthquake, with an officially estimated cost of 6 billions Euros, shows that geological and geophysical investigations necessary to assess a reliable deterministic hazard evaluation are largely justified.
A statistical approach to nuclear fuel design and performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cunning, Travis Andrew

As CANDU fuel failures can have significant economic and operational consequences on the Canadian nuclear power industry, it is essential that factors impacting fuel performance are adequately understood. Current industrial practice relies on deterministic safety analysis and the highly conservative "limit of operating envelope" approach, where all parameters are assumed to be at their limits simultaneously. This results in a conservative prediction of event consequences with little consideration given to the high quality and precision of current manufacturing processes. This study employs a novel approach to the prediction of CANDU fuel reliability. Probability distributions are fitted to actual fuel manufacturing datasets provided by Cameco Fuel Manufacturing, Inc. They are used to form input for two industry-standard fuel performance codes: ELESTRES for the steady-state case and ELOCA for the transient case---a hypothesized 80% reactor outlet header break loss of coolant accident. Using a Monte Carlo technique for input generation, 105 independent trials are conducted and probability distributions are fitted to key model output quantities. Comparing model output against recognized industrial acceptance criteria, no fuel failures are predicted for either case. Output distributions are well removed from failure limit values, implying that margin exists in current fuel manufacturing and design. To validate the results and attempt to reduce the simulation burden of the methodology, two dimensional reduction methods are assessed. Using just 36 trials, both methods are able to produce output distributions that agree strongly with those obtained via the brute-force Monte Carlo method, often to a relative discrepancy of less than 0.3% when predicting the first statistical moment, and a relative discrepancy of less than 5% when predicting the second statistical moment. In terms of global sensitivity, pellet density proves to have the greatest impact on fuel performance, with an average sensitivity index of 48.93% on key output quantities. Pellet grain size and dish depth are also significant contributors, at 31.53% and 13.46%, respectively. A traditional limit of operating envelope case is also evaluated. This case produces output values that exceed the maximum values observed during the 105 Monte Carlo trials for all output quantities of interest. In many cases the difference between the predictions of the two methods is very prominent, and the highly conservative nature of the deterministic approach is demonstrated. A reliability analysis of CANDU fuel manufacturing parametric data, specifically pertaining to the quantification of fuel performance margins, has not been conducted previously. Key Words: CANDU, nuclear fuel, Cameco, fuel manufacturing, fuel modelling, fuel performance, fuel reliability, ELESTRES, ELOCA, dimensional reduction methods, global sensitivity analysis, deterministic safety analysis, probabilistic safety analysis.
An expert system for wind shear avoidance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stengel, Robert F.; Stratton, D. Alexander

1990-01-01

A study of intelligent guidance and control concepts for protecting against the adverse effects of wind shear during aircraft takeoffs and landings is being conducted, with current emphasis on developing an expert system for wind shear avoidance. Principal objectives are to develop methods for assessing the likelihood of wind shear encounter (based on real-time information in the cockpit), for deciding what flight path to pursue (e.g., takeoff abort, landing go-around, or normal climbout or glide slope), and for using the aircraft's full potential for combating wind shear. This study requires the definition of both deterministic and statistical techniques for fusing internal and external information , for making go/no-go decisions, and for generating commands to the manually controlled flight. The program has begun with the development of the WindShear Safety Advisor, an expert system for pilot aiding that is based on the FAA Windshear Training Aid; a two-volume manual that presents an overview , pilot guide, training program, and substantiating data provides guidelines for this initial development. The WindShear Safety Advisor expert system currently contains over 200 rules and is coded in the LISP programming language.
Spatial scaling patterns and functional redundancies in a changing boreal lake landscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Angeler, David G.; Allen, Craig R.; Uden, Daniel R.; Johnson, Richard K.

2015-01-01

Global transformations extend beyond local habitats; therefore, larger-scale approaches are needed to assess community-level responses and resilience to unfolding environmental changes. Using longterm data (1996–2011), we evaluated spatial patterns and functional redundancies in the littoral invertebrate communities of 85 Swedish lakes, with the objective of assessing their potential resilience to environmental change at regional scales (that is, spatial resilience). Multivariate spatial modeling was used to differentiate groups of invertebrate species exhibiting spatial patterns in composition and abundance (that is, deterministic species) from those lacking spatial patterns (that is, stochastic species). We then determined the functional feeding attributes of the deterministic and stochastic invertebrate species, to infer resilience. Between one and three distinct spatial patterns in invertebrate composition and abundance were identified in approximately one-third of the species; the remainder were stochastic. We observed substantial differences in metrics between deterministic and stochastic species. Functional richness and diversity decreased over time in the deterministic group, suggesting a loss of resilience in regional invertebrate communities. However, taxon richness and redundancy increased monotonically in the stochastic group, indicating the capacity of regional invertebrate communities to adapt to change. Our results suggest that a refined picture of spatial resilience emerges if patterns of both the deterministic and stochastic species are accounted for. Spatially extensive monitoring may help increase our mechanistic understanding of community-level responses and resilience to regional environmental change, insights that are critical for developing management and conservation agendas in this current period of rapid environmental transformation.
Comparison of numerical weather prediction based deterministic and probabilistic wind resource assessment methods

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Jie; Draxl, Caroline; Hopson, Thomas

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have been widely used for wind resource assessment. Model runs with higher spatial resolution are generally more accurate, yet extremely computational expensive. An alternative approach is to use data generated by a low resolution NWP model, in conjunction with statistical methods. In order to analyze the accuracy and computational efficiency of different types of NWP-based wind resource assessment methods, this paper performs a comparison of three deterministic and probabilistic NWP-based wind resource assessment methodologies: (i) a coarse resolution (0.5 degrees x 0.67 degrees) global reanalysis data set, the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applicationsmore » (MERRA); (ii) an analog ensemble methodology based on the MERRA, which provides both deterministic and probabilistic predictions; and (iii) a fine resolution (2-km) NWP data set, the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit, based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Results show that: (i) as expected, the analog ensemble and WIND Toolkit perform significantly better than MERRA confirming their ability to downscale coarse estimates; (ii) the analog ensemble provides the best estimate of the multi-year wind distribution at seven of the nine sites, while the WIND Toolkit is the best at one site; (iii) the WIND Toolkit is more accurate in estimating the distribution of hourly wind speed differences, which characterizes the wind variability, at five of the available sites, with the analog ensemble being best at the remaining four locations; and (iv) the analog ensemble computational cost is negligible, whereas the WIND Toolkit requires large computational resources. Future efforts could focus on the combination of the analog ensemble with intermediate resolution (e.g., 10-15 km) NWP estimates, to considerably reduce the computational burden, while providing accurate deterministic estimates and reliable probabilistic assessments.« less
Characterizing uncertainty and variability in physiologically based pharmacokinetic models: state of the science and needs for research and implementation.

PubMed

Barton, Hugh A; Chiu, Weihsueh A; Setzer, R Woodrow; Andersen, Melvin E; Bailer, A John; Bois, Frédéric Y; Dewoskin, Robert S; Hays, Sean; Johanson, Gunnar; Jones, Nancy; Loizou, George; Macphail, Robert C; Portier, Christopher J; Spendiff, Martin; Tan, Yu-Mei

2007-10-01

Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models are used in mode-of-action based risk and safety assessments to estimate internal dosimetry in animals and humans. When used in risk assessment, these models can provide a basis for extrapolating between species, doses, and exposure routes or for justifying nondefault values for uncertainty factors. Characterization of uncertainty and variability is increasingly recognized as important for risk assessment; this represents a continuing challenge for both PBPK modelers and users. Current practices show significant progress in specifying deterministic biological models and nondeterministic (often statistical) models, estimating parameters using diverse data sets from multiple sources, using them to make predictions, and characterizing uncertainty and variability of model parameters and predictions. The International Workshop on Uncertainty and Variability in PBPK Models, held 31 Oct-2 Nov 2006, identified the state-of-the-science, needed changes in practice and implementation, and research priorities. For the short term, these include (1) multidisciplinary teams to integrate deterministic and nondeterministic/statistical models; (2) broader use of sensitivity analyses, including for structural and global (rather than local) parameter changes; and (3) enhanced transparency and reproducibility through improved documentation of model structure(s), parameter values, sensitivity and other analyses, and supporting, discrepant, or excluded data. Longer-term needs include (1) theoretical and practical methodological improvements for nondeterministic/statistical modeling; (2) better methods for evaluating alternative model structures; (3) peer-reviewed databases of parameters and covariates, and their distributions; (4) expanded coverage of PBPK models across chemicals with different properties; and (5) training and reference materials, such as cases studies, bibliographies/glossaries, model repositories, and enhanced software. The multidisciplinary dialogue initiated by this Workshop will foster the collaboration, research, data collection, and training necessary to make characterizing uncertainty and variability a standard practice in PBPK modeling and risk assessment.
Design of Critical Components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hendricks, Robert C.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.

2001-01-01

Critical component design is based on minimizing product failures that results in loss of life. Potential catastrophic failures are reduced to secondary failures where components removed for cause or operating time in the system. Issues of liability and cost of component removal become of paramount importance. Deterministic design with factors of safety and probabilistic design address but lack the essential characteristics for the design of critical components. In deterministic design and fabrication there are heuristic rules and safety factors developed over time for large sets of structural/material components. These factors did not come without cost. Many designs failed and many rules (codes) have standing committees to oversee their proper usage and enforcement. In probabilistic design, not only are failures a given, the failures are calculated; an element of risk is assumed based on empirical failure data for large classes of component operations. Failure of a class of components can be predicted, yet one can not predict when a specific component will fail. The analogy is to the life insurance industry where very careful statistics are book-kept on classes of individuals. For a specific class, life span can be predicted within statistical limits, yet life-span of a specific element of that class can not be predicted.
Exposure Assessment Tools by Tiers and Types - Deterministic and Probabilistic Assessments

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA ExpoBox is a toolbox for exposure assessors. Its purpose is to provide a compendium of exposure assessment and risk characterization tools that will present comprehensive step-by-step guidance and links to relevant exposure assessment data bases
A Comparison of Monte Carlo and Deterministic Solvers for keff and Sensitivity Calculations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Haeck, Wim; Parsons, Donald Kent; White, Morgan Curtis

Verification and validation of our solutions for calculating the neutron reactivity for nuclear materials is a key issue to address for many applications, including criticality safety, research reactors, power reactors, and nuclear security. Neutronics codes solve variations of the Boltzmann transport equation. The two main variants are Monte Carlo versus deterministic solutions, e.g. the MCNP [1] versus PARTISN [2] codes, respectively. There have been many studies over the decades that examined the accuracy of such solvers and the general conclusion is that when the problems are well-posed, either solver can produce accurate results. However, the devil is always in themore » details. The current study examines the issue of self-shielding and the stress it puts on deterministic solvers. Most Monte Carlo neutronics codes use continuous-energy descriptions of the neutron interaction data that are not subject to this effect. The issue of self-shielding occurs because of the discretisation of data used by the deterministic solutions. Multigroup data used in these solvers are the average cross section and scattering parameters over an energy range. Resonances in cross sections can occur that change the likelihood of interaction by one to three orders of magnitude over a small energy range. Self-shielding is the numerical effect that the average cross section in groups with strong resonances can be strongly affected as neutrons within that material are preferentially absorbed or scattered out of the resonance energies. This affects both the average cross section and the scattering matrix.« less
Propagation of neutron-reaction uncertainties through multi-physics models of novel LWR's

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez-Solis, Augusto; Sjöstrand, Henrik; Helgesson, Petter

2017-09-01

The novel design of the renewable boiling water reactor (RBWR) allows a breeding ratio greater than unity and thus, it aims at providing for a self-sustained fuel cycle. The neutron reactions that compose the different microscopic cross-sections and angular distributions are uncertain, so when they are employed in the determination of the spatial distribution of the neutron flux in a nuclear reactor, a methodology should be employed to account for these associated uncertainties. In this work, the Total Monte Carlo (TMC) method is used to propagate the different neutron-reactions (as well as angular distributions) covariances that are part of the TENDL-2014 nuclear data (ND) library. The main objective is to propagate them through coupled neutronic and thermal-hydraulic models in order to assess the uncertainty of important safety parameters related to multi-physics, such as peak cladding temperature along the axial direction of an RBWR fuel assembly. The objective of this study is to quantify the impact that ND covariances of important nuclides such as U-235, U-238, Pu-239 and the thermal scattering of hydrogen in H2O have in the deterministic safety analysis of novel nuclear reactors designs.
Damage prognosis: the future of structural health monitoring.

PubMed

Farrar, Charles R; Lieven, Nick A J

2007-02-15

This paper concludes the theme issue on structural health monitoring (SHM) by discussing the concept of damage prognosis (DP). DP attempts to forecast system performance by assessing the current damage state of the system (i.e. SHM), estimating the future loading environments for that system, and predicting through simulation and past experience the remaining useful life of the system. The successful development of a DP capability will require the further development and integration of many technology areas including both measurement/processing/telemetry hardware and a variety of deterministic and probabilistic predictive modelling capabilities, as well as the ability to quantify the uncertainty in these predictions. The multidisciplinary and challenging nature of the DP problem, its current embryonic state of development, and its tremendous potential for life-safety and economic benefits qualify DP as a 'grand challenge' problem for engineers in the twenty-first century.
A Computational Framework to Control Verification and Robustness Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crespo, Luis G.; Kenny, Sean P.; Giesy, Daniel P.

2010-01-01

This paper presents a methodology for evaluating the robustness of a controller based on its ability to satisfy the design requirements. The framework proposed is generic since it allows for high-fidelity models, arbitrary control structures and arbitrary functional dependencies between the requirements and the uncertain parameters. The cornerstone of this contribution is the ability to bound the region of the uncertain parameter space where the degradation in closed-loop performance remains acceptable. The size of this bounding set, whose geometry can be prescribed according to deterministic or probabilistic uncertainty models, is a measure of robustness. The robustness metrics proposed herein are the parametric safety margin, the reliability index, the failure probability and upper bounds to this probability. The performance observed at the control verification setting, where the assumptions and approximations used for control design may no longer hold, will fully determine the proposed control assessment.
Probabilistic Analysis of a Composite Crew Module

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mason, Brian H.; Krishnamurthy, Thiagarajan

2011-01-01

An approach for conducting reliability-based analysis (RBA) of a Composite Crew Module (CCM) is presented. The goal is to identify and quantify the benefits of probabilistic design methods for the CCM and future space vehicles. The coarse finite element model from a previous NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) project is used as the baseline deterministic analysis model to evaluate the performance of the CCM using a strength-based failure index. The first step in the probabilistic analysis process is the determination of the uncertainty distributions for key parameters in the model. Analytical data from water landing simulations are used to develop an uncertainty distribution, but such data were unavailable for other load cases. The uncertainty distributions for the other load scale factors and the strength allowables are generated based on assumed coefficients of variation. Probability of first-ply failure is estimated using three methods: the first order reliability method (FORM), Monte Carlo simulation, and conditional sampling. Results for the three methods were consistent. The reliability is shown to be driven by first ply failure in one region of the CCM at the high altitude abort load set. The final predicted probability of failure is on the order of 10-11 due to the conservative nature of the factors of safety on the deterministic loads.
The cost-effectiveness of air bags by seating position.

PubMed

Graham, J D; Thompson, K M; Goldie, S J; Segui-Gomez, M; Weinstein, M C

1997-11-05

Motor vehicle crashes continue to cause significant mortality and morbidity in the United States. Installation of air bags in new passenger vehicles is a major initiative in the field of injury prevention. To assess the net health consequences and cost-effectiveness of driver's side and front passenger air bags from a societal perspective, taking into account the increased risk to children who occupy the front passenger seat and the diminished effectiveness for older adults. A deterministic state transition model tracked a hypothetical cohort of new vehicles over a 20-year period for 3 strategies: (1) installation of safety belts, (2) installation of driver's side air bags in addition to safety belts, and (3) installation of front passenger air bags in addition to safety belts and driver's side air bags. Changes in health outcomes, valued in terms of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and costs (in 1993 dollars), were projected following the recommendations of the Panel on Cost-effectiveness in Health and Medicine. US population-based and convenience sample data were used. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. Safety belts are cost saving, even at 50% use. The addition of driver's side air bags to safety belts results in net health benefits at an incremental cost of $24000 per QALY saved. The further addition of front passenger air bags results in an incremental net benefit at a higher incremental cost of $61000 per QALY saved. Results were sensitive to the unit cost of air bag systems, their effectiveness, baseline fatality rates, the ratio of injuries to fatalities, and the real discount rate. Both air bag systems save life-years at costs that are comparable to many medical and public health practices. Immediate steps can be taken to enhance the cost-effectiveness of front passenger air bags, such as moving children to the rear seat.

The Aeronautical Data Link: Taxonomy, Architectural Analysis, and Optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morris, A. Terry; Goode, Plesent W.

2002-01-01

The future Communication, Navigation, and Surveillance/Air Traffic Management (CNS/ATM) System will rely on global satellite navigation, and ground-based and satellite based communications via Multi-Protocol Networks (e.g. combined Aeronautical Telecommunications Network (ATN)/Internet Protocol (IP)) to bring about needed improvements in efficiency and safety of operations to meet increasing levels of air traffic. This paper will discuss the development of an approach that completely describes optimal data link architecture configuration and behavior to meet the multiple conflicting objectives of concurrent and different operations functions. The practical application of the approach enables the design and assessment of configurations relative to airspace operations phases. The approach includes a formal taxonomic classification, an architectural analysis methodology, and optimization techniques. The formal taxonomic classification provides a multidimensional correlation of data link performance with data link service, information protocol, spectrum, and technology mode; and to flight operations phase and environment. The architectural analysis methodology assesses the impact of a specific architecture configuration and behavior on the local ATM system performance. Deterministic and stochastic optimization techniques maximize architectural design effectiveness while addressing operational, technology, and policy constraints.
Down to the roughness scale assessment of piston-ring/liner contacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Checo, H. M.; Jaramillo, A.; Ausas, R. F.; Jai, M.; Buscaglia, G. C.

2017-02-01

The effects of surface roughness in hydrodynamic bearings been accounted for through several approaches, the most widely used being averaging or stochastic techniques. With these the surface is not treated “as it is”, but by means of an assumed probability distribution for the roughness. The so called direct, deterministic or measured-surface simulation) solve the lubrication problem with realistic surfaces down to the roughness scale. This leads to expensive computational problems. Most researchers have tackled this problem considering non-moving surfaces and neglecting the ring dynamics to reduce the computational burden. What is proposed here is to solve the fully-deterministic simulation both in space and in time, so that the actual movement of the surfaces and the rings dynamics are taken into account. This simulation is much more complex than previous ones, as it is intrinsically transient. The feasibility of these fully-deterministic simulations is illustrated two cases: fully deterministic simulation of liner surfaces with diverse finishings (honed and coated bores) with constant piston velocity and load on the ring and also in real engine conditions.
Risk-Based Probabilistic Approach to Aeropropulsion System Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tong, Michael T.

2002-01-01

In an era of shrinking development budgets and resources, where there is also an emphasis on reducing the product development cycle, the role of system assessment, performed in the early stages of an engine development program, becomes very critical to the successful development of new aeropropulsion systems. A reliable system assessment not only helps to identify the best propulsion system concept among several candidates, it can also identify which technologies are worth pursuing. This is particularly important for advanced aeropropulsion technology development programs, which require an enormous amount of resources. In the current practice of deterministic, or point-design, approaches, the uncertainties of design variables are either unaccounted for or accounted for by safety factors. This could often result in an assessment with unknown and unquantifiable reliability. Consequently, it would fail to provide additional insight into the risks associated with the new technologies, which are often needed by decision makers to determine the feasibility and return-on-investment of a new aircraft engine. In this work, an alternative approach based on the probabilistic method was described for a comprehensive assessment of an aeropropulsion system. The statistical approach quantifies the design uncertainties inherent in a new aeropropulsion system and their influences on engine performance. Because of this, it enhances the reliability of a system assessment. A technical assessment of a wave-rotor-enhanced gas turbine engine was performed to demonstrate the methodology. The assessment used probability distributions to account for the uncertainties that occur in component efficiencies and flows and in mechanical design variables. The approach taken in this effort was to integrate the thermodynamic cycle analysis embedded in the computer code NEPP (NASA Engine Performance Program) and the engine weight analysis embedded in the computer code WATE (Weight Analysis of Turbine Engines) with the fast probability integration technique (FPI). FPI was developed by Southwest Research Institute under contract with the NASA Glenn Research Center. The results were plotted in the form of cumulative distribution functions and sensitivity analyses and were compared with results from the traditional deterministic approach. The comparison showed that the probabilistic approach provides a more realistic and systematic way to assess an aeropropulsion system. The current work addressed the application of the probabilistic approach to assess specific fuel consumption, engine thrust, and weight. Similarly, the approach can be used to assess other aspects of aeropropulsion system performance, such as cost, acoustic noise, and emissions. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.
Risk assessment for furan contamination through the food chain in Belgian children.

PubMed

Scholl, Georges; Huybrechts, Inge; Humblet, Marie-France; Scippo, Marie-Louise; De Pauw, Edwin; Eppe, Gauthier; Saegerman, Claude

2012-08-01

Young, old, pregnant and immuno-compromised persons are of great concern for risk assessors as they represent the sub-populations most at risk. The present paper focuses on risk assessment linked to furan exposure in children. Only the Belgian population was considered because individual contamination and consumption data that are required for accurate risk assessment were available for Belgian children only. Two risk assessment approaches, the so-called deterministic and probabilistic, were applied and the results were compared for the estimation of daily intake. A significant difference between the average Estimated Daily Intake (EDI) was underlined between the deterministic (419 ng kg⁻¹ body weight (bw) day⁻¹) and the probabilistic (583 ng kg⁻¹ bw day⁻¹) approaches, which results from the mathematical treatment of the null consumption and contamination data. The risk was characterised by two ways: (1) the classical approach by comparison of the EDI to a reference dose (RfD(chronic-oral)) and (2) the most recent approach, namely the Margin of Exposure (MoE) approach. Both reached similar conclusions: the risk level is not of a major concern, but is neither negligible. In the first approach, only 2.7 or 6.6% (respectively in the deterministic and in the probabilistic way) of the studied population presented an EDI above the RfD(chronic-oral). In the second approach, the percentage of children displaying a MoE above 10,000 and below 100 is 3-0% and 20-0.01% in the deterministic and probabilistic modes, respectively. In addition, children were compared to adults and significant differences between the contamination patterns were highlighted. While major contamination was linked to coffee consumption in adults (55%), no item predominantly contributed to the contamination in children. The most important were soups (19%), dairy products (17%), pasta and rice (11%), fruit and potatoes (9% each).
Determining the bias and variance of a deterministic finger-tracking algorithm.

PubMed

Morash, Valerie S; van der Velden, Bas H M

2016-06-01

Finger tracking has the potential to expand haptic research and applications, as eye tracking has done in vision research. In research applications, it is desirable to know the bias and variance associated with a finger-tracking method. However, assessing the bias and variance of a deterministic method is not straightforward. Multiple measurements of the same finger position data will not produce different results, implying zero variance. Here, we present a method of assessing deterministic finger-tracking variance and bias through comparison to a non-deterministic measure. A proof-of-concept is presented using a video-based finger-tracking algorithm developed for the specific purpose of tracking participant fingers during a psychological research study. The algorithm uses ridge detection on videos of the participant's hand, and estimates the location of the right index fingertip. The algorithm was evaluated using data from four participants, who explored tactile maps using only their right index finger and all right-hand fingers. The algorithm identified the index fingertip in 99.78 % of one-finger video frames and 97.55 % of five-finger video frames. Although the algorithm produced slightly biased and more dispersed estimates relative to a human coder, these differences (x=0.08 cm, y=0.04 cm) and standard deviations (σ x =0.16 cm, σ y =0.21 cm) were small compared to the size of a fingertip (1.5-2.0 cm). Some example finger-tracking results are provided where corrections are made using the bias and variance estimates.
Convergence studies of deterministic methods for LWR explicit reflector methodology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Canepa, S.; Hursin, M.; Ferroukhi, H.

2013-07-01

The standard approach in modem 3-D core simulators, employed either for steady-state or transient simulations, is to use Albedo coefficients or explicit reflectors at the core axial and radial boundaries. In the latter approach, few-group homogenized nuclear data are a priori produced with lattice transport codes using 2-D reflector models. Recently, the explicit reflector methodology of the deterministic CASMO-4/SIMULATE-3 code system was identified to potentially constitute one of the main sources of errors for core analyses of the Swiss operating LWRs, which are all belonging to GII design. Considering that some of the new GIII designs will rely on verymore » different reflector concepts, a review and assessment of the reflector methodology for various LWR designs appeared as relevant. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to first recall the concepts of the explicit reflector modelling approach as employed by CASMO/SIMULATE. Then, for selected reflector configurations representative of both GII and GUI designs, a benchmarking of the few-group nuclear data produced with the deterministic lattice code CASMO-4 and its successor CASMO-5, is conducted. On this basis, a convergence study with regards to geometrical requirements when using deterministic methods with 2-D homogenous models is conducted and the effect on the downstream 3-D core analysis accuracy is evaluated for a typical GII deflector design in order to assess the results against available plant measurements. (authors)« less
Soil erosion assessment - Mind the gap

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jongho; Ivanov, Valeriy Y.; Fatichi, Simone

2016-12-01

Accurate assessment of erosion rates remains an elusive problem because soil loss is strongly nonunique with respect to the main drivers. In addressing the mechanistic causes of erosion responses, we discriminate between macroscale effects of external factors - long studied and referred to as "geomorphic external variability", and microscale effects, introduced as "geomorphic internal variability." The latter source of erosion variations represents the knowledge gap, an overlooked but vital element of geomorphic response, significantly impacting the low predictability skill of deterministic models at field-catchment scales. This is corroborated with experiments using a comprehensive physical model that dynamically updates the soil mass and particle composition. As complete knowledge of microscale conditions for arbitrary location and time is infeasible, we propose that new predictive frameworks of soil erosion should embed stochastic components in deterministic assessments of external and internal types of geomorphic variability.
Integrated probabilistic risk assessment for nanoparticles: the case of nanosilica in food.

PubMed

Jacobs, Rianne; van der Voet, Hilko; Ter Braak, Cajo J F

Insight into risks of nanotechnology and the use of nanoparticles is an essential condition for the social acceptance and safe use of nanotechnology. One of the problems with which the risk assessment of nanoparticles is faced is the lack of data, resulting in uncertainty in the risk assessment. We attempt to quantify some of this uncertainty by expanding a previous deterministic study on nanosilica (5-200 nm) in food into a fully integrated probabilistic risk assessment. We use the integrated probabilistic risk assessment method in which statistical distributions and bootstrap methods are used to quantify uncertainty and variability in the risk assessment. Due to the large amount of uncertainty present, this probabilistic method, which separates variability from uncertainty, contributed to a better understandable risk assessment. We found that quantifying the uncertainties did not increase the perceived risk relative to the outcome of the deterministic study. We pinpointed particular aspects of the hazard characterization that contributed most to the total uncertainty in the risk assessment, suggesting that further research would benefit most from obtaining more reliable data on those aspects.
Are seismic hazard assessment errors and earthquake surprises unavoidable?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kossobokov, Vladimir

2013-04-01

Why earthquake occurrences bring us so many surprises? The answer seems evident if we review the relationships that are commonly used to assess seismic hazard. The time-span of physically reliable Seismic History is yet a small portion of a rupture recurrence cycle at an earthquake-prone site, which makes premature any kind of reliable probabilistic statements about narrowly localized seismic hazard. Moreover, seismic evidences accumulated to-date demonstrate clearly that most of the empirical relations commonly accepted in the early history of instrumental seismology can be proved erroneous when testing statistical significance is applied. Seismic events, including mega-earthquakes, cluster displaying behaviors that are far from independent or periodic. Their distribution in space is possibly fractal, definitely, far from uniform even in a single segment of a fault zone. Such a situation contradicts generally accepted assumptions used for analytically tractable or computer simulations and complicates design of reliable methodologies for realistic earthquake hazard assessment, as well as search and definition of precursory behaviors to be used for forecast/prediction purposes. As a result, the conclusions drawn from such simulations and analyses can MISLEAD TO SCIENTIFICALLY GROUNDLESS APPLICATION, which is unwise and extremely dangerous in assessing expected societal risks and losses. For example, a systematic comparison of the GSHAP peak ground acceleration estimates with those related to actual strong earthquakes, unfortunately, discloses gross inadequacy of this "probabilistic" product, which appears UNACCEPTABLE FOR ANY KIND OF RESPONSIBLE SEISMIC RISK EVALUATION AND KNOWLEDGEABLE DISASTER PREVENTION. The self-evident shortcomings and failures of GSHAP appeals to all earthquake scientists and engineers for an urgent revision of the global seismic hazard maps from the first principles including background methodologies involved, such that there becomes: (a) a demonstrated and sufficient justification of hazard assessment protocols; (b) a more complete learning of the actual range of earthquake hazards to local communities and populations, and (c) a more ethically responsible control over how seismic hazard and seismic risk is implemented to protect public safety. It follows that the international project GEM is on the wrong track, if it continues to base seismic risk estimates on the standard method to assess seismic hazard. The situation is not hopeless and could be improved dramatically due to available geological, geomorphologic, seismic, and tectonic evidences and data combined with deterministic pattern recognition methodologies, specifically, when intending to PREDICT PREDICTABLE, but not the exact size, site, date, and probability of a target event. Understanding the complexity of non-linear dynamics of hierarchically organized systems of blocks-and-faults has led already to methodologies of neo-deterministic seismic hazard analysis and intermediate-term middle- to narrow-range earthquake prediction algorithms tested in real-time applications over the last decades. It proves that Contemporary Science can do a better job in disclosing Natural Hazards, assessing Risks, and delivering such info in advance extreme catastrophes, which are LOW PROBABILITY EVENTS THAT HAPPEN WITH CERTAINTY. Geoscientists must initiate shifting the minds of community from pessimistic disbelieve to optimistic challenging issues of neo-deterministic Hazard Predictability.
Monitoring and exposure assessment of pesticide residues in cowpea (Vigna unguiculata L. Walp) from five provinces of southern China.

PubMed

Huan, Zhibo; Xu, Zhi; Luo, Jinhui; Xie, Defang

2016-11-01

Residues of 14 pesticides were determined in 150 cowpea samples collected in five southern Chinese provinces in 2013 and 2014.70% samples were detected one or more residues. 61.3% samples were illegal mainly because of detection of unauthorized pesticides. 14.0% samples contained more than three pesticides. Deterministic and probabilistic methods were used to assess the chronic and acute risk of pesticides in cowpea to eight subgroups of people. Deterministic assessment showed that the estimated short-term intakes (ESTIs) of carbofuran were 1199.4%-2621.9% of the acute reference doses (ARfD) while the rates were 985.9%-4114.7% using probabilistic assessment. Probabilistic assessment showed 4.2%-7.8% subjects may suffer from unacceptable acute risk from carbofuran contaminated cowpeas from the five provinces (especially children). But undue concern is not necessary, because all the estimations are based on conservative assumption. Copyright Â© 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Extraction of angle deterministic signals in the presence of stationary speed fluctuations with cyclostationary blind source separation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delvecchio, S.; Antoni, J.

2012-02-01

This paper addresses the use of a cyclostationary blind source separation algorithm (namely RRCR) to extract angle deterministic signals from mechanical rotating machines in presence of stationary speed fluctuations. This means that only phase fluctuations while machine is running in steady-state conditions are considered while run-up or run-down speed variations are not taken into account. The machine is also supposed to run in idle conditions so non-stationary phenomena due to the load are not considered. It is theoretically assessed that in such operating conditions the deterministic (periodic) signal in the angle domain becomes cyclostationary at first and second orders in the time domain. This fact justifies the use of the RRCR algorithm, which is able to directly extract the angle deterministic signal from the time domain without performing any kind of interpolation. This is particularly valuable when angular resampling fails because of uncontrolled speed fluctuations. The capability of the proposed approach is verified by means of simulated and actual vibration signals captured on a pneumatic screwdriver handle. In this particular case not only the extraction of the angle deterministic part can be performed but also the separation of the main sources of excitation (i.e. motor shaft imbalance, epyciloidal gear meshing and air pressure forces) affecting the user hand during operations.
Field Evaluation of an Avian Risk Assessment Model

EPA Science Inventory

We conducted two laboratory subacute dietary toxicity tests and one outdoor subacute dietary toxicity test to determine the effectiveness of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's deterministic risk assessment model for evaluating the potential of adverse effects to birds in ...
ECOFRAM Terrestrial Draft Report

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

ECOFRAM report describing the concepts for moving from deterministic to probabilistic ecological risk assessments. ECOFRAM included scientific experts from government, academia, contract laboratories, environmental advocacy groups and industry.
How to Stop Disagreeing and Start Cooperatingin the Presence of Asymmetric Packet Loss.

PubMed

Morales-Ponce, Oscar; Schiller, Elad M; Falcone, Paolo

2018-04-22

We consider the design of a disagreement correction protocol in multi-vehicle systems. Vehicles broadcast in real-time vital information such as position, direction, speed, acceleration, intention, etc. This information is then used to identify the risks and adapt their trajectory to maintain the highest performance without compromising the safety. To minimize the risk due to the use of inconsistent information, all cooperating vehicles must agree whether to use the exchanged information to operate in a cooperative mode or use the only local information to operate in an autonomous mode. However, since wireless communications are prone to failures, it is impossible to deterministically reach an agreement. Therefore, any protocol will exhibit necessary disagreement periods. In this paper, we investigate whether vehicles can still cooperate despite communication failures even in the scenario where communication is suddenly not available. We present a deterministic protocol that allows all participants to either operate a cooperative mode when vehicles can exchange all the information in a timely manner or operate in autonomous mode when messages are lost. We show formally that the disagreement time is bounded by the time that the communication channel requires to deliver messages and validate our protocol using NS-3 simulations. We explain how the proposed solution can be used in vehicular platooning to attain high performance and still guarantee high safety standards despite communication failures.
How to Stop Disagreeing and Start Cooperatingin the Presence of Asymmetric Packet Loss

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

We consider the design of a disagreement correction protocol in multi-vehicle systems. Vehicles broadcast in real-time vital information such as position, direction, speed, acceleration, intention, etc. This information is then used to identify the risks and adapt their trajectory to maintain the highest performance without compromising the safety. To minimize the risk due to the use of inconsistent information, all cooperating vehicles must agree whether to use the exchanged information to operate in a cooperative mode or use the only local information to operate in an autonomous mode. However, since wireless communications are prone to failures, it is impossible to deterministically reach an agreement. Therefore, any protocol will exhibit necessary disagreement periods. In this paper, we investigate whether vehicles can still cooperate despite communication failures even in the scenario where communication is suddenly not available. We present a deterministic protocol that allows all participants to either operate a cooperative mode when vehicles can exchange all the information in a timely manner or operate in autonomous mode when messages are lost. We show formally that the disagreement time is bounded by the time that the communication channel requires to deliver messages and validate our protocol using NS-3 simulations. We explain how the proposed solution can be used in vehicular platooning to attain high performance and still guarantee high safety standards despite communication failures. PMID:29690572
Development of a Deterministic Ethernet Building blocks for Space Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fidi, C.; Jakovljevic, Mirko

2015-09-01

The benefits of using commercially based networking standards and protocols have been widely discussed and are expected to include reduction in overall mission cost, shortened integration and test (I&T) schedules, increased operations flexibility, and hardware and software upgradeability/scalability with developments ongoing in the commercial world. The deterministic Ethernet technology TTEthernet [1] diploid on the NASA Orion spacecraft has demonstrated the use of the TTEthernet technology for a safety critical human space flight application during the Exploration Flight Test 1 (EFT-1). The TTEthernet technology used within the NASA Orion program has been matured for the use within this mission but did not lead to a broader use in space applications or an international space standard. Therefore TTTech has developed a new version which allows to scale the technology for different applications not only the high end missions allowing to decrease the size of the building blocks leading to a reduction of size weight and power enabling the use in smaller applications. TTTech is currently developing a full space products offering for its TTEthernet technology to allow the use in different space applications not restricted to launchers and human spaceflight. A broad space market assessment and the current ESA TRP7594 lead to the development of a space grade TTEthernet controller ASIC based on the ESA qualified Atmel AT1C8RHA95 process [2]. In this paper we will describe our current TTEthernet controller development towards a space qualified network component allowing future spacecrafts to operate in significant radiation environments while using a single onboard network for reliable commanding and data transfer.
Application of the Scoping of Options and Analyzing Risk Model (SOAR) in the Modeling of Radionuclide Movement and Dose Calculation for a Hypothetical Deep Geological Repository for Nuclear Fuel Wastes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lei, S.; Osborne, P.

2016-12-01

The Scoping of Options and Analyzing Risk (SOAR) model was developed by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission staff to assist in their evaluation of potential high-level radioactive waste disposal options. It is a 1-D contaminant transport code that contains a biosphere module to calculate mass fluxes and radiation dose to humans. As part of the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission (CNSC)'s Coordinated Assessment Program to assist with the review of proposals for deep geological repositories (DGR's) for nuclear fuel wastes, CNSC conducted a research project to find out whether SOAR can be used by CNSC staff as an independent scoping tool to assist review of proponents' submissions related to safety assessment for DGRs. In the research, SOAR was applied to the post-closure safety assessment for a hypothetical DGR in sedimentary rock, as described in the 5th Case Study report by the Nuclear Waste Management Organization (NWMO) of Canada (2011). The report contains, among others, modeling of transport and releases of radionuclides at various locations within the geosphere and the radiation dose to humans over a period of one million years. One aspect covered was 1-D modeling of various scenarios and sensitivity cases with both deterministic and probabilistic approaches using SYVAC3-CC4, which stands for Systems Variability Analysis Code (generation 3, Canadian Concept generation 4), developed by Atomic Energy of Canada Limited (Kitson et al., 2000). Radionuclide fluxes and radiation dose to the humans calculated using SOAR were compared with that from NWMO's modeling. Overall, the results from the two models were similar, although SOAR gave lower mass fluxes and peak dose, mainly due to differences in modeling the waste package configurations. Sensitivity analyses indicate that both models are most sensitive to the diffusion coefficient of the geological media. The research leads to the conclusion that SOAR is a robust, user friendly, and flexible scoping tool that CNSC staff may use for safety assessments; however, some improvements may be needed, such as including dose contributions from other pathways in addition to drinking water and being more flexible for modeling different waste package configurations.
Reliability Analysis of Retaining Walls Subjected to Blast Loading by Finite Element Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

GuhaRay, Anasua; Mondal, Stuti; Mohiuddin, Hisham Hasan

2018-02-01

Conventional design methods adopt factor of safety as per practice and experience, which are deterministic in nature. The limit state method, though not completely deterministic, does not take into account effect of design parameters, which are inherently variable such as cohesion, angle of internal friction, etc. for soil. Reliability analysis provides a measure to consider these variations into analysis and hence results in a more realistic design. Several studies have been carried out on reliability of reinforced concrete walls and masonry walls under explosions. Also, reliability analysis of retaining structures against various kinds of failure has been done. However, very few research works are available on reliability analysis of retaining walls subjected to blast loading. Thus, the present paper considers the effect of variation of geotechnical parameters when a retaining wall is subjected to blast loading. However, it is found that the variation of geotechnical random variables does not have a significant effect on the stability of retaining walls subjected to blast loading.
Selection of process conditions by risk assessment for apple juice pasteurization by UV-heat treatments at moderate temperatures.

PubMed

Gayán, E; Torres, J A; Alvarez, I; Condón, S

2014-02-01

The effect of bactericidal UV-C treatments (254 nm) on Escherichia coli O157:H7 suspended in apple juice increased synergistically with temperature up to a threshold value. The optimum UV-C treatment temperature was 55 °C, yielding a 58.9% synergistic lethal effect. Under these treatment conditions, the UV-heat (UV-H55 °C) lethal variability achieving 5-log reductions had a logistic distribution (α = 37.92, β = 1.10). Using this distribution, UV-H55 °C doses to achieve the required juice safety goal with 95, 99, and 99.9% confidence were 41.17, 42.97, and 46.00 J/ml, respectively, i.e., doses higher than the 37.58 J/ml estimated by a deterministic procedure. The public health impact of these results is that the larger UV-H55 °C dose required for achieving 5-log reductions with 95, 99, and 99.9% confidence would reduce the probability of hemolytic uremic syndrome in children by 76.3, 88.6, and 96.9%, respectively. This study illustrates the importance of including the effect of data variability when selecting operational parameters for novel and conventional preservation processes to achieve high food safety standards with the desired confidence level.
Habitat connectivity and in-stream vegetation control temporal variability of benthic invertebrate communities.

PubMed

Huttunen, K-L; Mykrä, H; Oksanen, J; Astorga, A; Paavola, R; Muotka, T

2017-05-03

One of the key challenges to understanding patterns of β diversity is to disentangle deterministic patterns from stochastic ones. Stochastic processes may mask the influence of deterministic factors on community dynamics, hindering identification of the mechanisms causing variation in community composition. We studied temporal β diversity (among-year dissimilarity) of macroinvertebrate communities in near-pristine boreal streams across 14 years. To assess whether the observed β diversity deviates from that expected by chance, and to identify processes (deterministic vs. stochastic) through which different explanatory factors affect community variability, we used a null model approach. We observed that at the majority of sites temporal β diversity was low indicating high community stability. When stochastic variation was unaccounted for, connectivity was the only variable explaining temporal β diversity, with weakly connected sites exhibiting higher community variability through time. After accounting for stochastic effects, connectivity lost importance, suggesting that it was related to temporal β diversity via random colonization processes. Instead, β diversity was best explained by in-stream vegetation, community variability decreasing with increasing bryophyte cover. These results highlight the potential of stochastic factors to dampen the influence of deterministic processes, affecting our ability to understand and predict changes in biological communities through time.

Risk and benefit assessment of potential neurodevelopmental effect resulting from consumption of marine fish from a coastal archipelago in China.

PubMed

Gao, Yi-Xiong; Zhang, Hongxia; Yu, Xinwei; He, Jia-lu; Shang, Xiaohong; Li, Xiaowei; Zhao, Yunfeng; Wu, Yongning

2014-06-04

The aim of this study was to assess net neurodevelopmental effect via maternal consumption of marine fish. A total of thirty-one species were collected from Zhoushan, China. The net IQ point gain was assessed by FAO/WHO deterministic approach and probabilistic computation (if necessary). Results of the deterministic assessment of two samples belonging to Scoliodon sorrakowah showed negative IQ point gain in both common and extreme consumption scenarios (175 and 450 g/week, respectively); the net IQ gain caused by both consumption scenarios of other species were positive. Both consumption scenarios of Scoliodon sorrakowah showed beneficial neurodevelopmental effect according to probabilistic computation (95% CI for mean of net IQ gain: 0.0536-0.0554 and 0.1377-0.1425, respectively). Except for Scoliodon sorrakowah, this study indicates that both consumption scenarios of other studied species would be recommended according to the FAO/WHO approach. There would be no recommendation of consumption scenarios of Scoliodon sorrakowah for the reason for carefulness.
Probabilistic Modeling of the Renal Stone Formation Module

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Best, Lauren M.; Myers, Jerry G.; Goodenow, Debra A.; McRae, Michael P.; Jackson, Travis C.

2013-01-01

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic tool, used in mission planning decision making and medical systems risk assessments. The IMM project maintains a database of over 80 medical conditions that could occur during a spaceflight, documenting an incidence rate and end case scenarios for each. In some cases, where observational data are insufficient to adequately define the inflight medical risk, the IMM utilizes external probabilistic modules to model and estimate the event likelihoods. One such medical event of interest is an unpassed renal stone. Due to a high salt diet and high concentrations of calcium in the blood (due to bone depletion caused by unloading in the microgravity environment) astronauts are at a considerable elevated risk for developing renal calculi (nephrolithiasis) while in space. Lack of observed incidences of nephrolithiasis has led HRP to initiate the development of the Renal Stone Formation Module (RSFM) to create a probabilistic simulator capable of estimating the likelihood of symptomatic renal stone presentation in astronauts on exploration missions. The model consists of two major parts. The first is the probabilistic component, which utilizes probability distributions to assess the range of urine electrolyte parameters and a multivariate regression to transform estimated crystal density and size distributions to the likelihood of the presentation of nephrolithiasis symptoms. The second is a deterministic physical and chemical model of renal stone growth in the kidney developed by Kassemi et al. The probabilistic component of the renal stone model couples the input probability distributions describing the urine chemistry, astronaut physiology, and system parameters with the physical and chemical outputs and inputs to the deterministic stone growth model. These two parts of the model are necessary to capture the uncertainty in the likelihood estimate. The model will be driven by Monte Carlo simulations, continuously randomly sampling the probability distributions of the electrolyte concentrations and system parameters that are inputs into the deterministic model. The total urine chemistry concentrations are used to determine the urine chemistry activity using the Joint Expert Speciation System (JESS), a biochemistry model. Information used from JESS is then fed into the deterministic growth model. Outputs from JESS and the deterministic model are passed back to the probabilistic model where a multivariate regression is used to assess the likelihood of a stone forming and the likelihood of a stone requiring clinical intervention. The parameters used to determine to quantify these risks include: relative supersaturation (RS) of calcium oxalate, citrate/calcium ratio, crystal number density, total urine volume, pH, magnesium excretion, maximum stone width, and ureteral location. Methods and Validation: The RSFM is designed to perform a Monte Carlo simulation to generate probability distributions of clinically significant renal stones, as well as provide an associated uncertainty in the estimate. Initially, early versions will be used to test integration of the components and assess component validation and verification (V&V), with later versions used to address questions regarding design reference mission scenarios. Once integrated with the deterministic component, the credibility assessment of the integrated model will follow NASA STD 7009 requirements.
Errors in Seismic Hazard Assessment are Creating Huge Human Losses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bela, J.

2015-12-01

The current practice of representing earthquake hazards to the public based upon their perceived likelihood or probability of occurrence is proven now by the global record of actual earthquakes to be not only erroneous and unreliable, but also too deadly! Earthquake occurrence is sporadic and therefore assumptions of earthquake frequency and return-period are both not only misleading, but also categorically false. More than 700,000 people have now lost their lives (2000-2011), wherein 11 of the World's Deadliest Earthquakes have occurred in locations where probability-based seismic hazard assessments had predicted only low seismic low hazard. Unless seismic hazard assessment and the setting of minimum earthquake design safety standards for buildings and bridges are based on a more realistic deterministic recognition of "what can happen" rather than on what mathematical models suggest is "most likely to happen" such future huge human losses can only be expected to continue! The actual earthquake events that did occur were at or near the maximum potential-size event that either already had occurred in the past; or were geologically known to be possible. Haiti's M7 earthquake, 2010 (with > 222,000 fatalities) meant the dead could not even be buried with dignity. Japan's catastrophic Tohoku earthquake, 2011; a M9 Megathrust earthquake, unleashed a tsunami that not only obliterated coastal communities along the northern Japanese coast, but also claimed > 20,000 lives. This tsunami flooded nuclear reactors at Fukushima, causing 4 explosions and 3 reactors to melt down. But while this history of huge human losses due to erroneous and misleading seismic hazard estimates, despite its wrenching pain, cannot be unlived; if faced with courage and a more realistic deterministic estimate of "what is possible", it need not be lived again. An objective testing of the results of global probability based seismic hazard maps against real occurrences has never been done by the GSHAP team; even though the obvious inadequacy of the GSHAP map could have been established in the course of a simple check before the project completion. The doctrine of "psha exceptionalism" that created the maps can only be esponged by carefully examining the facts . . . which unfortunately include huge human losses!
Matrix Population Model for Estimating Effects from Time-Varying Aquatic Exposures: Technical Documentation

EPA Science Inventory

The Office of Pesticide Programs models daily aquatic pesticide exposure values for 30 years in its risk assessments. However, only a fraction of that information is typically used in these assessments. The population model employed herein is a deterministic, density-dependent pe...
An expert system for wind shear avoidance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stengel, Robert F.; Stratton, D. Alexander

1990-01-01

The principal objectives are to develop methods for assessing the likelihood of wind shear encounter (based on real-time information in the cockpit), for deciding what flight path to pursue (e.g., takeoff abort, landing go-around, or normal climbout or glide slope), and for using the aircraft's full potential for combating wind shear. This study requires the definition of both deterministic and statistical techniques for fusing internal and external information, for making go/no-go decisions, and for generating commands to the aircraft's autopilot and flight directors for both automatic and manually controlled flight. The expert system for pilot aiding is based on the results of the FAA Windshear Training Aids Program, a two-volume manual that presents an overview, pilot guide, training program, and substantiating data that provides guidelines for this initial development. The Windshear Safety Advisor expert system currently contains over 140 rules and is coded in the LISP programming language for implementation on a Symbolics 3670 LISP Machine.
Reliability assessment of slender concrete columns at the stability failure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valašík, Adrián; Benko, Vladimír; Strauss, Alfred; Täubling, Benjamin

2018-01-01

The European Standard for designing concrete columns within the use of non-linear methods shows deficiencies in terms of global reliability, in case that the concrete columns fail by the loss of stability. The buckling failure is a brittle failure which occurs without warning and the probability of its formation depends on the columns slenderness. Experiments with slender concrete columns were carried out in cooperation with STRABAG Bratislava LTD in Central Laboratory of Faculty of Civil Engineering SUT in Bratislava. The following article aims to compare the global reliability of slender concrete columns with slenderness of 90 and higher. The columns were designed according to methods offered by EN 1992-1-1 [1]. The mentioned experiments were used as basis for deterministic nonlinear modelling of the columns and subsequent the probabilistic evaluation of structural response variability. Final results may be utilized as thresholds for loading of produced structural elements and they aim to present probabilistic design as less conservative compared to classic partial safety factor based design and alternative ECOV method.
Failed rib region prediction in a human body model during crash events with precrash braking.

PubMed

Guleyupoglu, B; Koya, B; Barnard, R; Gayzik, F S

2018-02-28

The objective of this study is 2-fold. We used a validated human body finite element model to study the predicted chest injury (focusing on rib fracture as a function of element strain) based on varying levels of simulated precrash braking. Furthermore, we compare deterministic and probabilistic methods of rib injury prediction in the computational model. The Global Human Body Models Consortium (GHBMC) M50-O model was gravity settled in the driver position of a generic interior equipped with an advanced 3-point belt and airbag. Twelve cases were investigated with permutations for failure, precrash braking system, and crash severity. The severities used were median (17 kph), severe (34 kph), and New Car Assessment Program (NCAP; 56.4 kph). Cases with failure enabled removed rib cortical bone elements once 1.8% effective plastic strain was exceeded. Alternatively, a probabilistic framework found in the literature was used to predict rib failure. Both the probabilistic and deterministic methods take into consideration location (anterior, lateral, and posterior). The deterministic method is based on a rubric that defines failed rib regions dependent on a threshold for contiguous failed elements. The probabilistic method depends on age-based strain and failure functions. Kinematics between both methods were similar (peak max deviation: ΔX head = 17 mm; ΔZ head = 4 mm; ΔX thorax = 5 mm; ΔZ thorax = 1 mm). Seat belt forces at the time of probabilistic failed region initiation were lower than those at deterministic failed region initiation. The probabilistic method for rib fracture predicted more failed regions in the rib (an analog for fracture) than the deterministic method in all but 1 case where they were equal. The failed region patterns between models are similar; however, there are differences that arise due to stress reduced from element elimination that cause probabilistic failed regions to continue to rise after no deterministic failed region would be predicted. Both the probabilistic and deterministic methods indicate similar trends with regards to the effect of precrash braking; however, there are tradeoffs. The deterministic failed region method is more spatially sensitive to failure and is more sensitive to belt loads. The probabilistic failed region method allows for increased capability in postprocessing with respect to age. The probabilistic failed region method predicted more failed regions than the deterministic failed region method due to force distribution differences.
The aggregate timberland assessment systemATLAS: a comprehensive timber projection model.

Treesearch

J.R. Mills; J.C. Kincaid

1992-01-01

The aggregate timberland assessment system is a time-based deterministic timber projection model. It was developed by the USDA Forest Service to address broad policy questions related to future timber supplies for the 1989 Renewable Resources Planning Act timber assessment. An open framework design allows for customizing inputs to account for regional and subregional...
Hotspot Identification for Shanghai Expressways Using the Quantitative Risk Assessment Method

PubMed Central

Chen, Can; Li, Tienan; Sun, Jian; Chen, Feng

2016-01-01

Hotspot identification (HSID) is the first and key step of the expressway safety management process. This study presents a new HSID method using the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) technique. Crashes that are likely to happen for a specific site are treated as the risk. The aggregation of the crash occurrence probability for all exposure vehicles is estimated based on the empirical Bayesian method. As for the consequences of crashes, crashes may not only cause direct losses (e.g., occupant injuries and property damages) but also result in indirect losses. The indirect losses are expressed by the extra delays calculated using the deterministic queuing diagram method. The direct losses and indirect losses are uniformly monetized to be considered as the consequences of this risk. The potential costs of crashes, as a criterion to rank high-risk sites, can be explicitly expressed as the sum of the crash probability for all passing vehicles and the corresponding consequences of crashes. A case study on the urban expressways of Shanghai is presented. The results show that the new QRA method for HSID enables the identification of a set of high-risk sites that truly reveal the potential crash costs to society. PMID:28036009
Solar cosmic rays as a specific source of radiation risk during piloted space flight.

PubMed

Petrov, V M

2004-01-01

Solar cosmic rays present one of several radiation sources that are unique to space flight. Under ground conditions the exposure to individuals has a controlled form and radiation risk occurs as stochastic radiobiological effects. Existence of solar cosmic rays in space leads to a stochastic mode of radiation environment as a result of which any radiobiological consequences of exposure to solar cosmic rays during the flight will be probabilistic values. In this case, the hazard of deterministic effects should also be expressed in radiation risk values. The main deterministic effect under space conditions is radiation sickness. The best dosimetric functional for its analysis is the blood forming organs dose equivalent but not an effective dose. In addition, the repair processes in red bone marrow affect strongly on the manifestation of this pathology and they must be taken into account for radiation risk assessment. A method for taking into account the mentioned above peculiarities for the solar cosmic rays radiation risk assessment during the interplanetary flights is given in the report. It is shown that radiation risk of deterministic effects defined, as the death probability caused by radiation sickness due to acute solar cosmic rays exposure, can be comparable to risk of stochastic effects. Its value decreases strongly because of the fractional mode of exposure during the orbital movement of the spacecraft. On the contrary, during the interplanetary flight, radiation risk of deterministic effects increases significantly because of the residual component of the blood forming organs dose from previous solar proton events. The noted quality of radiation responses must be taken into account for estimating radiation hazard in space. c2004 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Seismic stability of the survey areas of potential sites for the deep geological repository of the spent nuclear fuel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaláb, Zdeněk; Šílený, Jan; Lednická, Markéta

2017-07-01

This paper deals with the seismic stability of the survey areas of potential sites for the deep geological repository of the spent nuclear fuel in the Czech Republic. The basic source of data for historical earthquakes up to 1990 was the seismic website [1-]. The most intense earthquake described occurred on September 15, 1590 in the Niederroesterreich region (Austria) in the historical period; its reported intensity is Io = 8-9. The source of the contemporary seismic data for the period since 1991 to the end of 2014 was the website [11]. It may be stated based on the databases and literature review that in the period from 1900, no earthquake exceeding magnitude 5.1 originated in the territory of the Czech Republic. In order to evaluate seismicity and to assess the impact of seismic effects at depths of hypothetical deep geological repository for the next time period, the neo-deterministic method was selected as an extension of the probabilistic method. Each one out of the seven survey areas were assessed by the neo-deterministic evaluation of the seismic wave-field excited by selected individual events and determining the maximum loading. Results of seismological databases studies and neo-deterministic analysis of Čihadlo locality are presented.
COMMUNICATING PROBABILISTIC RISK OUTCOMES TO RISK MANAGERS

EPA Science Inventory

Increasingly, risk assessors are moving away from simple deterministic assessments to probabilistic approaches that explicitly incorporate ecological variability, measurement imprecision, and lack of knowledge (collectively termed "uncertainty"). While the new methods provide an...
Evaluation of the Plant-Craig stochastic convection scheme in an ensemble forecasting system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keane, R. J.; Plant, R. S.; Tennant, W. J.

2015-12-01

The Plant-Craig stochastic convection parameterization (version 2.0) is implemented in the Met Office Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS-R) and is assessed in comparison with the standard convection scheme with a simple stochastic element only, from random parameter variation. A set of 34 ensemble forecasts, each with 24 members, is considered, over the month of July 2009. Deterministic and probabilistic measures of the precipitation forecasts are assessed. The Plant-Craig parameterization is found to improve probabilistic forecast measures, particularly the results for lower precipitation thresholds. The impact on deterministic forecasts at the grid scale is neutral, although the Plant-Craig scheme does deliver improvements when forecasts are made over larger areas. The improvements found are greater in conditions of relatively weak synoptic forcing, for which convective precipitation is likely to be less predictable.
Safety Evaluation of an Automated Remote Monitoring System for Heart Failure in an Urban, Indigent Population.

PubMed

Gross-Schulman, Sandra; Sklaroff, Laura Myerchin; Hertz, Crystal Coyazo; Guterman, Jeffrey J

2017-12-01

Heart Failure (HF) is the most expensive preventable condition, regardless of patient ethnicity, race, socioeconomic status, sex, and insurance status. Remote telemonitoring with timely outpatient care can significantly reduce avoidable HF hospitalizations. Human outreach, the traditional method used for remote monitoring, is effective but costly. Automated systems can potentially provide positive clinical, fiscal, and satisfaction outcomes in chronic disease monitoring. The authors implemented a telephonic HF automated remote monitoring system that utilizes deterministic decision tree logic to identify patients who are at risk of clinical decompensation. This safety study evaluated the degree of clinical concordance between the automated system and traditional human monitoring. This study focused on a broad underserved population and demonstrated a safe, reliable, and inexpensive method of monitoring patients with HF.
Cost Effectiveness of Ofatumumab Plus Chlorambucil in First-Line Chronic Lymphocytic Leukaemia in Canada.

PubMed

Herring, William; Pearson, Isobel; Purser, Molly; Nakhaipour, Hamid Reza; Haiderali, Amin; Wolowacz, Sorrel; Jayasundara, Kavisha

2016-01-01

Our objective was to estimate the cost effectiveness of ofatumumab plus chlorambucil (OChl) versus chlorambucil in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukaemia for whom fludarabine-based therapies are considered inappropriate from the perspective of the publicly funded healthcare system in Canada. A semi-Markov model (3-month cycle length) used survival curves to govern progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Efficacy and safety data and health-state utility values were estimated from the COMPLEMENT-1 trial. Post-progression treatment patterns were based on clinical guidelines, Canadian treatment practices and published literature. Total and incremental expected lifetime costs (in Canadian dollars [$Can], year 2013 values), life-years and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were computed. Uncertainty was assessed via deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. The discounted lifetime health and economic outcomes estimated by the model showed that, compared with chlorambucil, first-line treatment with OChl led to an increase in QALYs (0.41) and total costs ($Can27,866) and to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $Can68,647 per QALY gained. In deterministic sensitivity analyses, the ICER was most sensitive to the modelling time horizon and to the extrapolation of OS treatment effects beyond the trial duration. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis, the probability of cost effectiveness at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $Can100,000 per QALY gained was 59 %. Base-case results indicated that improved overall response and PFS for OChl compared with chlorambucil translated to improved quality-adjusted life expectancy. Sensitivity analysis suggested that OChl is likely to be cost effective subject to uncertainty associated with the presence of any long-term OS benefit and the model time horizon.
JCCRER Project 2.3 -- Deterministic effects of occupational exposure to radiation. Phase 1: Feasibility study; Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Okladnikova, N.; Pesternikova, V.; Sumina, M.

1998-12-01

Phase 1 of Project 2.3, a short-term collaborative Feasibility Study, was funded for 12 months starting on 1 February 1996. The overall aim of the study was to determine the practical feasibility of using the dosimetric and clinical data on the MAYAK worker population to study the deterministic effects of exposure to external gamma radiation and to internal alpha radiation from inhaled plutonium. Phase 1 efforts were limited to the period of greatest worker exposure (1948--1954) and focused on collaboratively: assessing the comprehensiveness, availability, quality, and suitability of the Russian clinical and dosimetric data for the study of deterministic effects;more » creating an electronic data base containing complete clinical and dosimetric data on a small, representative sample of MAYAK workers; developing computer software for the testing of a currently used health risk model of hematopoietic effects; and familiarizing the US team with the Russian diagnostic criteria and techniques used in the identification of Chronic Radiation Sickness.« less
On the usage of ultrasound computational models for decision making under ambiguity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dib, Gerges; Sexton, Samuel; Prowant, Matthew; Crawford, Susan; Diaz, Aaron

2018-04-01

Computer modeling and simulation is becoming pervasive within the non-destructive evaluation (NDE) industry as a convenient tool for designing and assessing inspection techniques. This raises a pressing need for developing quantitative techniques for demonstrating the validity and applicability of the computational models. Computational models provide deterministic results based on deterministic and well-defined input, or stochastic results based on inputs defined by probability distributions. However, computational models cannot account for the effects of personnel, procedures, and equipment, resulting in ambiguity about the efficacy of inspections based on guidance from computational models only. In addition, ambiguity arises when model inputs, such as the representation of realistic cracks, cannot be defined deterministically, probabilistically, or by intervals. In this work, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory demonstrates the ability of computational models to represent field measurements under known variabilities, and quantify the differences using maximum amplitude and power spectrum density metrics. Sensitivity studies are also conducted to quantify the effects of different input parameters on the simulation results.
Analysis of wireless sensor network topology and estimation of optimal network deployment by deterministic radio channel characterization.

PubMed

Aguirre, Erik; Lopez-Iturri, Peio; Azpilicueta, Leire; Astrain, José Javier; Villadangos, Jesús; Falcone, Francisco

2015-02-05

One of the main challenges in the implementation and design of context-aware scenarios is the adequate deployment strategy for Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs), mainly due to the strong dependence of the radiofrequency physical layer with the surrounding media, which can lead to non-optimal network designs. In this work, radioplanning analysis for WSN deployment is proposed by employing a deterministic 3D ray launching technique in order to provide insight into complex wireless channel behavior in context-aware indoor scenarios. The proposed radioplanning procedure is validated with a testbed implemented with a Mobile Ad Hoc Network WSN following a chain configuration, enabling the analysis and assessment of a rich variety of parameters, such as received signal level, signal quality and estimation of power consumption. The adoption of deterministic radio channel techniques allows the design and further deployment of WSNs in heterogeneous wireless scenarios with optimized behavior in terms of coverage, capacity, quality of service and energy consumption.
FY2017 Updates to the SAS4A/SASSYS-1 Safety Analysis Code

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fanning, T. H.

The SAS4A/SASSYS-1 safety analysis software is used to perform deterministic analysis of anticipated events as well as design-basis and beyond-design-basis accidents for advanced fast reactors. It plays a central role in the analysis of U.S. DOE conceptual designs, proposed test and demonstration reactors, and in domestic and international collaborations. This report summarizes the code development activities that have taken place during FY2017. Extensions to the void and cladding reactivity feedback models have been implemented, and Control System capabilities have been improved through a new virtual data acquisition system for plant state variables and an additional Block Signal for a variablemore » lag compensator to represent reactivity feedback for novel shutdown devices. Current code development and maintenance needs are also summarized in three key areas: software quality assurance, modeling improvements, and maintenance of related tools. With ongoing support, SAS4A/SASSYS-1 can continue to fulfill its growing role in fast reactor safety analysis and help solidify DOE’s leadership role in fast reactor safety both domestically and in international collaborations.« less
Field evaluation of an avian risk assessment model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vyas, N.B.; Spann, J.W.; Hulse, C.S.; Borges, S.L.; Bennett, R.S.; Torrez, M.; Williams, B.I.; Leffel, R.

2006-01-01

We conducted two laboratory subacute dietary toxicity tests and one outdoor subacute dietary toxicity test to determine the effectiveness of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's deterministic risk assessment model for evaluating the potential of adverse effects to birds in the field. We tested technical-grade diazinon and its D Z N- 50W (50% diazinon active ingredient wettable powder) formulation on Canada goose (Branta canadensis) goslings. Brain acetylcholinesterase activity was measured, and the feathers and skin, feet. and gastrointestinal contents were analyzed for diazinon residues. The dose-response curves showed that diazinon was significantly more toxic to goslings in the outdoor test than in the laboratory tests. The deterministic risk assessment method identified the potential for risk to birds in general, but the factors associated with extrapolating from the laboratory to the field, and from the laboratory test species to other species, resulted in the underestimation of risk to the goslings. The present study indicates that laboratory-based risk quotients should be interpreted with caution.

Robust Deterministic Controlled Phase-Flip Gate and Controlled-Not Gate Based on Atomic Ensembles Embedded in Double-Sided Optical Cavities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, A.-Peng; Cheng, Liu-Yong; Guo, Qi; Zhang, Shou

2018-02-01

We first propose a scheme for controlled phase-flip gate between a flying photon qubit and the collective spin wave (magnon) of an atomic ensemble assisted by double-sided cavity quantum systems. Then we propose a deterministic controlled-not gate on magnon qubits with parity-check building blocks. Both the gates can be accomplished with 100% success probability in principle. Atomic ensemble is employed so that light-matter coupling is remarkably improved by collective enhancement. We assess the performance of the gates and the results show that they can be faithfully constituted with current experimental techniques.
Moving beyond the cost-loss ratio: economic assessment of streamflow forecasts for a risk-averse decision maker

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matte, Simon; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Boucher, Vincent; Fortier Filion, Thomas-Charles

2017-06-01

A large effort has been made over the past 10 years to promote the operational use of probabilistic or ensemble streamflow forecasts. Numerous studies have shown that ensemble forecasts are of higher quality than deterministic ones. Many studies also conclude that decisions based on ensemble rather than deterministic forecasts lead to better decisions in the context of flood mitigation. Hence, it is believed that ensemble forecasts possess a greater economic and social value for both decision makers and the general population. However, the vast majority of, if not all, existing hydro-economic studies rely on a cost-loss ratio framework that assumes a risk-neutral decision maker. To overcome this important flaw, this study borrows from economics and evaluates the economic value of early warning flood systems using the well-known Constant Absolute Risk Aversion (CARA) utility function, which explicitly accounts for the level of risk aversion of the decision maker. This new framework allows for the full exploitation of the information related to a forecasts' uncertainty, making it especially suited for the economic assessment of ensemble or probabilistic forecasts. Rather than comparing deterministic and ensemble forecasts, this study focuses on comparing different types of ensemble forecasts. There are multiple ways of assessing and representing forecast uncertainty. Consequently, there exist many different means of building an ensemble forecasting system for future streamflow. One such possibility is to dress deterministic forecasts using the statistics of past error forecasts. Such dressing methods are popular among operational agencies because of their simplicity and intuitiveness. Another approach is the use of ensemble meteorological forecasts for precipitation and temperature, which are then provided as inputs to one or many hydrological model(s). In this study, three concurrent ensemble streamflow forecasting systems are compared: simple statistically dressed deterministic forecasts, forecasts based on meteorological ensembles, and a variant of the latter that also includes an estimation of state variable uncertainty. This comparison takes place for the Montmorency River, a small flood-prone watershed in southern central Quebec, Canada. The assessment of forecasts is performed for lead times of 1 to 5 days, both in terms of forecasts' quality (relative to the corresponding record of observations) and in terms of economic value, using the new proposed framework based on the CARA utility function. It is found that the economic value of a forecast for a risk-averse decision maker is closely linked to the forecast reliability in predicting the upper tail of the streamflow distribution. Hence, post-processing forecasts to avoid over-forecasting could help improve both the quality and the value of forecasts.
Earthquake Hazard Mitigation Using a Systems Analysis Approach to Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legg, M.; Eguchi, R. T.

2015-12-01

The earthquake hazard mitigation goal is to reduce losses due to severe natural events. The first step is to conduct a Seismic Risk Assessment consisting of 1) hazard estimation, 2) vulnerability analysis, 3) exposure compilation. Seismic hazards include ground deformation, shaking, and inundation. The hazard estimation may be probabilistic or deterministic. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) is generally applied to site-specific Risk assessments, but may involve large areas as in a National Seismic Hazard Mapping program. Deterministic hazard assessments are needed for geographically distributed exposure such as lifelines (infrastructure), but may be important for large communities. Vulnerability evaluation includes quantification of fragility for construction or components including personnel. Exposure represents the existing or planned construction, facilities, infrastructure, and population in the affected area. Risk (expected loss) is the product of the quantified hazard, vulnerability (damage algorithm), and exposure which may be used to prepare emergency response plans, retrofit existing construction, or use community planning to avoid hazards. The risk estimate provides data needed to acquire earthquake insurance to assist with effective recovery following a severe event. Earthquake Scenarios used in Deterministic Risk Assessments provide detailed information on where hazards may be most severe, what system components are most susceptible to failure, and to evaluate the combined effects of a severe earthquake to the whole system or community. Casualties (injuries and death) have been the primary factor in defining building codes for seismic-resistant construction. Economic losses may be equally significant factors that can influence proactive hazard mitigation. Large urban earthquakes may produce catastrophic losses due to a cascading of effects often missed in PSHA. Economic collapse may ensue if damaged workplaces, disruption of utilities, and resultant loss of income produces widespread default on payments. With increased computational power and more complete inventories of exposure, Monte Carlo methods may provide more accurate estimation of severe losses and the opportunity to increase resilience of vulnerable systems and communities.
Radiation dose predictions for SPE events during solar cycle 23 from NASA's Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mertens, Christopher; Blattnig, Steve; Slaba, Tony; Kress, Brian; Wiltberger, Michael; Solomon, Stan

NASA's High Charge and Energy Transport (HZETRN) code is a deterministic model for rapid and accurate calculations of the particle radiation fields in the space environment. HZETRN is used to calculate dosimetric quantities on the International Space Station (ISS) and assess astronaut risk to space radiations, including realistic spacecraft and human geometry for final exposure evaluation. HZETRN is used as an engineering design tool for materials research for radiation shielding protection. Moreover, it is used to calculate HZE propagation through the Earth and Martian atmospheres, and to evaluate radiation exposures for epidemiological studies. A new research project has begun that will use HZETRN as the transport engine for the development of a nowcast prediction of air-crew radiation exposure for both background galactic cosmic ray (GCR) exposure and radiation exposure during solar particle events (SPE) that may accompany solar storms. The new air-crew radiation exposure model is called the Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) model, which utilizes real-time observations from ground-based, atmospheric, and satellite measurements. In this paper, we compute the global distribution of atmospheric radiation dose for several SPE events during solar cycle 23, with particular emphasis on the high-latitude and polar region. We also characterize the suppression of the geomagnetic cutoff rigidity during these storm periods and their subsequent influence on atmospheric radiation exposure.
Recent advances in computational structural reliability analysis methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thacker, Ben H.; Wu, Y.-T.; Millwater, Harry R.; Torng, Tony Y.; Riha, David S.

1993-10-01

The goal of structural reliability analysis is to determine the probability that the structure will adequately perform its intended function when operating under the given environmental conditions. Thus, the notion of reliability admits the possibility of failure. Given the fact that many different modes of failure are usually possible, achievement of this goal is a formidable task, especially for large, complex structural systems. The traditional (deterministic) design methodology attempts to assure reliability by the application of safety factors and conservative assumptions. However, the safety factor approach lacks a quantitative basis in that the level of reliability is never known and usually results in overly conservative designs because of compounding conservatisms. Furthermore, problem parameters that control the reliability are not identified, nor their importance evaluated. A summary of recent advances in computational structural reliability assessment is presented. A significant level of activity in the research and development community was seen recently, much of which was directed towards the prediction of failure probabilities for single mode failures. The focus is to present some early results and demonstrations of advanced reliability methods applied to structural system problems. This includes structures that can fail as a result of multiple component failures (e.g., a redundant truss), or structural components that may fail due to multiple interacting failure modes (e.g., excessive deflection, resonate vibration, or creep rupture). From these results, some observations and recommendations are made with regard to future research needs.
Recent advances in computational structural reliability analysis methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thacker, Ben H.; Wu, Y.-T.; Millwater, Harry R.; Torng, Tony Y.; Riha, David S.

1993-01-01

The goal of structural reliability analysis is to determine the probability that the structure will adequately perform its intended function when operating under the given environmental conditions. Thus, the notion of reliability admits the possibility of failure. Given the fact that many different modes of failure are usually possible, achievement of this goal is a formidable task, especially for large, complex structural systems. The traditional (deterministic) design methodology attempts to assure reliability by the application of safety factors and conservative assumptions. However, the safety factor approach lacks a quantitative basis in that the level of reliability is never known and usually results in overly conservative designs because of compounding conservatisms. Furthermore, problem parameters that control the reliability are not identified, nor their importance evaluated. A summary of recent advances in computational structural reliability assessment is presented. A significant level of activity in the research and development community was seen recently, much of which was directed towards the prediction of failure probabilities for single mode failures. The focus is to present some early results and demonstrations of advanced reliability methods applied to structural system problems. This includes structures that can fail as a result of multiple component failures (e.g., a redundant truss), or structural components that may fail due to multiple interacting failure modes (e.g., excessive deflection, resonate vibration, or creep rupture). From these results, some observations and recommendations are made with regard to future research needs.
Evaluation of the Plant-Craig stochastic convection scheme (v2.0) in the ensemble forecasting system MOGREPS-R (24 km) based on the Unified Model (v7.3)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keane, Richard J.; Plant, Robert S.; Tennant, Warren J.

2016-05-01

The Plant-Craig stochastic convection parameterization (version 2.0) is implemented in the Met Office Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS-R) and is assessed in comparison with the standard convection scheme with a simple stochastic scheme only, from random parameter variation. A set of 34 ensemble forecasts, each with 24 members, is considered, over the month of July 2009. Deterministic and probabilistic measures of the precipitation forecasts are assessed. The Plant-Craig parameterization is found to improve probabilistic forecast measures, particularly the results for lower precipitation thresholds. The impact on deterministic forecasts at the grid scale is neutral, although the Plant-Craig scheme does deliver improvements when forecasts are made over larger areas. The improvements found are greater in conditions of relatively weak synoptic forcing, for which convective precipitation is likely to be less predictable.
Estimation of electromagnetic dosimetric values from non-ionizing radiofrequency fields in an indoor commercial airplane environment.

PubMed

Aguirre, Erik; Arpón, Javier; Azpilicueta, Leire; López, Peio; de Miguel, Silvia; Ramos, Victoria; Falcone, Francisco

2014-12-01

In this article, the impact of topology as well as morphology of a complex indoor environment such as a commercial aircraft in the estimation of dosimetric assessment is presented. By means of an in-house developed deterministic 3D ray-launching code, estimation of electric field amplitude as a function of position for the complete volume of a commercial passenger airplane is obtained. Estimation of electromagnetic field exposure in this environment is challenging, due to the complexity and size of the scenario, as well as to the large metallic content, giving rise to strong multipath components. By performing the calculation with a deterministic technique, the complete scenario can be considered with an optimized balance between accuracy and computational cost. The proposed method can aid in the assessment of electromagnetic dosimetry in the future deployment of embarked wireless systems in commercial aircraft.
Deterministic chaotic dynamics of Raba River flow (Polish Carpathian Mountains)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kędra, Mariola

2014-02-01

Is the underlying dynamics of river flow random or deterministic? If it is deterministic, is it deterministic chaotic? This issue is still controversial. The application of several independent methods, techniques and tools for studying daily river flow data gives consistent, reliable and clear-cut results to the question. The outcomes point out that the investigated discharge dynamics is not random but deterministic. Moreover, the results completely confirm the nonlinear deterministic chaotic nature of the studied process. The research was conducted on daily discharge from two selected gauging stations of the mountain river in southern Poland, the Raba River.
Impacts of Considering Climate Variability on Investment Decisions in Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strzepek, K.; Block, P.; Rosegrant, M.; Diao, X.

2005-12-01

In Ethiopia, climate extremes, inducing droughts or floods, are not unusual. Monitoring the effects of these extremes, and climate variability in general, is critical for economic prediction and assessment of the country's future welfare. The focus of this study involves adding climate variability to a deterministic, mean climate-driven agro-economic model, in an attempt to understand its effects and degree of influence on general economic prediction indicators for Ethiopia. Four simulations are examined, including a baseline simulation and three investment strategies: simulations of irrigation investment, roads investment, and a combination investment of both irrigation and roads. The deterministic model is transformed into a stochastic model by dynamically adding year-to-year climate variability through climate-yield factors. Nine sets of actual, historic, variable climate data are individually assembled and implemented into the 12-year stochastic model simulation, producing an ensemble of economic prediction indicators. This ensemble allows for a probabilistic approach to planning and policy making, allowing decision makers to consider risk. The economic indicators from the deterministic and stochastic approaches, including rates of return to investments, are significantly different. The predictions of the deterministic model appreciably overestimate the future welfare of Ethiopia; the predictions of the stochastic model, utilizing actual climate data, tend to give a better semblance of what may be expected. Inclusion of climate variability is vital for proper analysis of the predictor values from this agro-economic model.
Fumonisin B1 Toxicity in Grower-Finisher Pigs: A Comparative Analysis of Genetically Engineered Bt Corn and non-Bt Corn by Using Quantitative Dietary Exposure Assessment Modeling

PubMed Central

Delgado, James E.; Wolt, Jeffrey D.

2011-01-01

In this study, we investigate the long-term exposure (20 weeks) to fumonisin B1 (FB1) in grower-finisher pigs by conducting a quantitative exposure assessment (QEA). Our analytical approach involved both deterministic and semi-stochastic modeling for dietary comparative analyses of FB1 exposures originating from genetically engineered Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt)-corn, conventional non-Bt corn and distiller’s dried grains with solubles (DDGS) derived from Bt and/or non-Bt corn. Results from both deterministic and semi-stochastic demonstrated a distinct difference of FB1 toxicity in feed between Bt corn and non-Bt corn. Semi-stochastic results predicted the lowest FB1 exposure for Bt grain with a mean of 1.5 mg FB1/kg diet and the highest FB1 exposure for a diet consisting of non-Bt grain and non-Bt DDGS with a mean of 7.87 mg FB1/kg diet; the chronic toxicological incipient level of concern is 1.0 mg of FB1/kg of diet. Deterministic results closely mirrored but tended to slightly under predict the mean result for the semi-stochastic analysis. This novel comparative QEA model reveals that diet scenarios where the source of grain is derived from Bt corn presents less potential to induce FB1 toxicity than diets containing non-Bt corn. PMID:21909298
Aboveground and belowground arthropods experience different relative influences of stochastic versus deterministic community assembly processes following disturbance

PubMed Central

Martinez, Alexander S.; Faist, Akasha M.

2016-01-01

Background Understanding patterns of biodiversity is a longstanding challenge in ecology. Similar to other biotic groups, arthropod community structure can be shaped by deterministic and stochastic processes, with limited understanding of what moderates the relative influence of these processes. Disturbances have been noted to alter the relative influence of deterministic and stochastic processes on community assembly in various study systems, implicating ecological disturbances as a potential moderator of these forces. Methods Using a disturbance gradient along a 5-year chronosequence of insect-induced tree mortality in a subalpine forest of the southern Rocky Mountains, Colorado, USA, we examined changes in community structure and relative influences of deterministic and stochastic processes in the assembly of aboveground (surface and litter-active species) and belowground (species active in organic and mineral soil layers) arthropod communities. Arthropods were sampled for all years of the chronosequence via pitfall traps (aboveground community) and modified Winkler funnels (belowground community) and sorted to morphospecies. Community structure of both communities were assessed via comparisons of morphospecies abundance, diversity, and composition. Assembly processes were inferred from a mixture of linear models and matrix correlations testing for community associations with environmental properties, and from null-deviation models comparing observed vs. expected levels of species turnover (Beta diversity) among samples. Results Tree mortality altered community structure in both aboveground and belowground arthropod communities, but null models suggested that aboveground communities experienced greater relative influences of deterministic processes, while the relative influence of stochastic processes increased for belowground communities. Additionally, Mantel tests and linear regression models revealed significant associations between the aboveground arthropod communities and vegetation and soil properties, but no significant association among belowground arthropod communities and environmental factors. Discussion Our results suggest context-dependent influences of stochastic and deterministic community assembly processes across different fractions of a spatially co-occurring ground-dwelling arthropod community following disturbance. This variation in assembly may be linked to contrasting ecological strategies and dispersal rates within above- and below-ground communities. Our findings add to a growing body of evidence indicating concurrent influences of stochastic and deterministic processes in community assembly, and highlight the need to consider potential variation across different fractions of biotic communities when testing community ecology theory and considering conservation strategies. PMID:27761333
Improvement of driving safety in road traffic system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Ke-Ping; Gao, Zi-You

2005-05-01

A road traffic system is a complex system in which humans participate directly. In this system, human factors play a very important role. In this paper, a kind of control signal is designated at a given site (i.e., signal point) of the road. Under the effect of the control signal, the drivers will decrease their velocities when their vehicles pass the signal point. Our aim is to transit the traffic flow states from disorder to order and then improve the traffic safety. We have tested this technique for the two-lane traffic model that is based on the deterministic Nagel-Schreckenberg (NaSch) traffic model. The simulation results indicate that the traffic flow states can be transited from disorder to order. Different order states can be observed in the system and these states are safer.
Probabilistic Design Methodology and its Application to the Design of an Umbilical Retract Mechanism

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Onyebueke, Landon; Ameye, Olusesan

2002-01-01

A lot has been learned from past experience with structural and machine element failures. The understanding of failure modes and the application of an appropriate design analysis method can lead to improved structural and machine element safety as well as serviceability. To apply Probabilistic Design Methodology (PDM), all uncertainties are modeled as random variables with selected distribution types, means, and standard deviations. It is quite difficult to achieve a robust design without considering the randomness of the design parameters which is the case in the use of the Deterministic Design Approach. The US Navy has a fleet of submarine-launched ballistic missiles. An umbilical plug joins the missile to the submarine in order to provide electrical and cooling water connections. As the missile leaves the submarine, an umbilical retract mechanism retracts the umbilical plug clear of the advancing missile after disengagement during launch and retrains the plug in the retracted position. The design of the current retract mechanism in use was based on the deterministic approach which puts emphasis on factor of safety. A new umbilical retract mechanism that is simpler in design, lighter in weight, more reliable, easier to adjust, and more cost effective has become desirable since this will increase the performance and efficiency of the system. This paper reports on a recent project performed at Tennessee State University for the US Navy that involved the application of PDM to the design of an umbilical retract mechanism. This paper demonstrates how the use of PDM lead to the minimization of weight and cost, and the maximization of reliability and performance.
History of Modern Earthquake Hazard Mapping and Assessment in California Using a Deterministic or Scenario Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mualchin, Lalliana

2011-03-01

Modern earthquake ground motion hazard mapping in California began following the 1971 San Fernando earthquake in the Los Angeles metropolitan area of southern California. Earthquake hazard assessment followed a traditional approach, later called Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA) in order to distinguish it from the newer Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). In DSHA, seismic hazard in the event of the Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE) magnitude from each of the known seismogenic faults within and near the state are assessed. The likely occurrence of the MCE has been assumed qualitatively by using late Quaternary and younger faults that are presumed to be seismogenic, but not when or within what time intervals MCE may occur. MCE is the largest or upper-bound potential earthquake in moment magnitude, and it supersedes and automatically considers all other possible earthquakes on that fault. That moment magnitude is used for estimating ground motions by applying it to empirical attenuation relationships, and for calculating ground motions as in neo-DSHA (Z uccolo et al., 2008). The first deterministic California earthquake hazard map was published in 1974 by the California Division of Mines and Geology (CDMG) which has been called the California Geological Survey (CGS) since 2002, using the best available fault information and ground motion attenuation relationships at that time. The California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) later assumed responsibility for printing the refined and updated peak acceleration contour maps which were heavily utilized by geologists, seismologists, and engineers for many years. Some engineers involved in the siting process of large important projects, for example, dams and nuclear power plants, continued to challenge the map(s). The second edition map was completed in 1985 incorporating more faults, improving MCE's estimation method, and using new ground motion attenuation relationships from the latest published results at that time. CDMG eventually published the second edition map in 1992 following the Governor's Board of Inquiry on the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake and at the demand of Caltrans. The third edition map was published by Caltrans in 1996 utilizing GIS technology to manage data that includes a simplified three-dimension geometry of faults and to facilitate efficient corrections and revisions of data and the map. The spatial relationship of fault hazards with highways, bridges or any other attribute can be efficiently managed and analyzed now in GIS at Caltrans. There has been great confidence in using DSHA in bridge engineering and other applications in California, and it can be confidently applied in any other earthquake-prone region. Earthquake hazards defined by DSHA are: (1) transparent and stable with robust MCE moment magnitudes; (2) flexible in their application to design considerations; (3) can easily incorporate advances in ground motion simulations; and (4) economical. DSHA and neo-DSHA have the same approach and applicability. The accuracy of DSHA has proven to be quite reasonable for practical applications within engineering design and always done with professional judgment. In the final analysis, DSHA is a reality-check for public safety and PSHA results. Although PSHA has been acclaimed as a better approach for seismic hazard assessment, it is DSHA, not PSHA, that has actually been used in seismic hazard assessment for building and bridge engineering, particularly in California.
Sustainability likelihood of remediation options for metal-contaminated soil/sediment.

PubMed

Chen, Season S; Taylor, Jessica S; Baek, Kitae; Khan, Eakalak; Tsang, Daniel C W; Ok, Yong Sik

2017-05-01

Multi-criteria analysis and detailed impact analysis were carried out to assess the sustainability of four remedial alternatives for metal-contaminated soil/sediment at former timber treatment sites and harbour sediment with different scales. The sustainability was evaluated in the aspects of human health and safety, environment, stakeholder concern, and land use, under four different scenarios with varying weighting factors. The Monte Carlo simulation was performed to reveal the likelihood of accomplishing sustainable remediation with different treatment options at different sites. The results showed that in-situ remedial technologies were more sustainable than ex-situ ones, where in-situ containment demonstrated both the most sustainable result and the highest probability to achieve sustainability amongst the four remedial alternatives in this study, reflecting the lesser extent of off-site and on-site impacts. Concerns associated with ex-situ options were adverse impacts tied to all four aspects and caused by excavation, extraction, and off-site disposal. The results of this study suggested the importance of considering the uncertainties resulting from the remedial options (i.e., stochastic analysis) in addition to the overall sustainability scores (i.e., deterministic analysis). The developed framework and model simulation could serve as an assessment for the sustainability likelihood of remedial options to ensure sustainable remediation of contaminated sites. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
HyRAM V1.0 User Guide

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Groth, Katrina M.; Zumwalt, Hannah Ruth; Clark, Andrew Jordan

2016-03-01

Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models (HyRAM) is a prototype software toolkit that integrates data and methods relevant to assessing the safety of hydrogen fueling and storage infrastructure. The HyRAM toolkit integrates deterministic and probabilistic models for quantifying accident scenarios, predicting physical effects, and characterizing the impact of hydrogen hazards, including thermal effects from jet fires and thermal pressure effects from deflagration. HyRAM version 1.0 incorporates generic probabilities for equipment failures for nine types of components, and probabilistic models for the impact of heat flux on humans and structures, with computationally and experimentally validated models of various aspects of gaseous hydrogen releasemore » and flame physics. This document provides an example of how to use HyRAM to conduct analysis of a fueling facility. This document will guide users through the software and how to enter and edit certain inputs that are specific to the user-defined facility. Description of the methodology and models contained in HyRAM is provided in [1]. This User’s Guide is intended to capture the main features of HyRAM version 1.0 (any HyRAM version numbered as 1.0.X.XXX). This user guide was created with HyRAM 1.0.1.798. Due to ongoing software development activities, newer versions of HyRAM may have differences from this guide.« less
A Passive System Reliability Analysis for a Station Blackout

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brunett, Acacia; Bucknor, Matthew; Grabaskas, David

2015-05-03

The latest iterations of advanced reactor designs have included increased reliance on passive safety systems to maintain plant integrity during unplanned sequences. While these systems are advantageous in reducing the reliance on human intervention and availability of power, the phenomenological foundations on which these systems are built require a novel approach to a reliability assessment. Passive systems possess the unique ability to fail functionally without failing physically, a result of their explicit dependency on existing boundary conditions that drive their operating mode and capacity. Argonne National Laboratory is performing ongoing analyses that demonstrate various methodologies for the characterization of passivemore » system reliability within a probabilistic framework. Two reliability analysis techniques are utilized in this work. The first approach, the Reliability Method for Passive Systems, provides a mechanistic technique employing deterministic models and conventional static event trees. The second approach, a simulation-based technique, utilizes discrete dynamic event trees to treat time- dependent phenomena during scenario evolution. For this demonstration analysis, both reliability assessment techniques are used to analyze an extended station blackout in a pool-type sodium fast reactor (SFR) coupled with a reactor cavity cooling system (RCCS). This work demonstrates the entire process of a passive system reliability analysis, including identification of important parameters and failure metrics, treatment of uncertainties and analysis of results.« less
FACTORS INFLUENCING TOTAL DIETARY EXPOSURE OF YOUNG CHILDREN

EPA Science Inventory

A deterministic model was developed to identify critical input parameters to assess dietary intake of young children. The model was used as a framework for understanding important factors in data collection and analysis. Factors incorporated included transfer efficiencies of pest...
Deterministic time-reversible thermostats: chaos, ergodicity, and the zeroth law of thermodynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patra, Puneet Kumar; Sprott, Julien Clinton; Hoover, William Graham; Griswold Hoover, Carol

2015-09-01

The relative stability and ergodicity of deterministic time-reversible thermostats, both singly and in coupled pairs, are assessed through their Lyapunov spectra. Five types of thermostat are coupled to one another through a single Hooke's-law harmonic spring. The resulting dynamics shows that three specific thermostat types, Hoover-Holian, Ju-Bulgac, and Martyna-Klein-Tuckerman, have very similar Lyapunov spectra in their equilibrium four-dimensional phase spaces and when coupled in equilibrium or nonequilibrium pairs. All three of these oscillator-based thermostats are shown to be ergodic, with smooth analytic Gaussian distributions in their extended phase spaces (coordinate, momentum, and two control variables). Evidently these three ergodic and time-reversible thermostat types are particularly useful as statistical-mechanical thermometers and thermostats. Each of them generates Gibbs' universal canonical distribution internally as well as for systems to which they are coupled. Thus they obey the zeroth law of thermodynamics, as a good heat bath should. They also provide dissipative heat flow with relatively small nonlinearity when two or more such temperature baths interact and provide useful deterministic replacements for the stochastic Langevin equation.

Using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to calibrate probabilistic surface temperature forecasts over Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soltanzadeh, I.; Azadi, M.; Vakili, G. A.

2011-07-01

Using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), an attempt was made to obtain calibrated probabilistic numerical forecasts of 2-m temperature over Iran. The ensemble employs three limited area models (WRF, MM5 and HRM), with WRF used with five different configurations. Initial and boundary conditions for MM5 and WRF are obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) and for HRM the initial and boundary conditions come from analysis of Global Model Europe (GME) of the German Weather Service. The resulting ensemble of seven members was run for a period of 6 months (from December 2008 to May 2009) over Iran. The 48-h raw ensemble outputs were calibrated using BMA technique for 120 days using a 40 days training sample of forecasts and relative verification data. The calibrated probabilistic forecasts were assessed using rank histogram and attribute diagrams. Results showed that application of BMA improved the reliability of the raw ensemble. Using the weighted ensemble mean forecast as a deterministic forecast it was found that the deterministic-style BMA forecasts performed usually better than the best member's deterministic forecast.
Effects of Noise on Ecological Invasion Processes: Bacteriophage-mediated Competition in Bacteria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joo, Jaewook; Eric, Harvill; Albert, Reka

2007-03-01

Pathogen-mediated competition, through which an invasive species carrying and transmitting a pathogen can be a superior competitor to a more vulnerable resident species, is one of the principle driving forces influencing biodiversity in nature. Using an experimental system of bacteriophage-mediated competition in bacterial populations and a deterministic model, we have shown in [Joo et al 2005] that the competitive advantage conferred by the phage depends only on the relative phage pathology and is independent of the initial phage concentration and other phage and host parameters such as the infection-causing contact rate, the spontaneous and infection-induced lysis rates, and the phage burst size. Here we investigate the effects of stochastic fluctuations on bacterial invasion facilitated by bacteriophage, and examine the validity of the deterministic approach. We use both numerical and analytical methods of stochastic processes to identify the source of noise and assess its magnitude. We show that the conclusions obtained from the deterministic model are robust against stochastic fluctuations, yet deviations become prominently large when the phage are more pathological to the invading bacterial strain.
The Aeronautical Data Link: Decision Framework for Architecture Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morris, A. Terry; Goode, Plesent W.

2003-01-01

A decision analytic approach that develops optimal data link architecture configuration and behavior to meet multiple conflicting objectives of concurrent and different airspace operations functions has previously been developed. The approach, premised on a formal taxonomic classification that correlates data link performance with operations requirements, information requirements, and implementing technologies, provides a coherent methodology for data link architectural analysis from top-down and bottom-up perspectives. This paper follows the previous research by providing more specific approaches for mapping and transitioning between the lower levels of the decision framework. The goal of the architectural analysis methodology is to assess the impact of specific architecture configurations and behaviors on the efficiency, capacity, and safety of operations. This necessarily involves understanding the various capabilities, system level performance issues and performance and interface concepts related to the conceptual purpose of the architecture and to the underlying data link technologies. Efficient and goal-directed data link architectural network configuration is conditioned on quantifying the risks and uncertainties associated with complex structural interface decisions. Deterministic and stochastic optimal design approaches will be discussed that maximize the effectiveness of architectural designs.
Development of probabilistic multimedia multipathway computer codes.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yu, C.; LePoire, D.; Gnanapragasam, E.

2002-01-01

The deterministic multimedia dose/risk assessment codes RESRAD and RESRAD-BUILD have been widely used for many years for evaluation of sites contaminated with residual radioactive materials. The RESRAD code applies to the cleanup of sites (soils) and the RESRAD-BUILD code applies to the cleanup of buildings and structures. This work describes the procedure used to enhance the deterministic RESRAD and RESRAD-BUILD codes for probabilistic dose analysis. A six-step procedure was used in developing default parameter distributions and the probabilistic analysis modules. These six steps include (1) listing and categorizing parameters; (2) ranking parameters; (3) developing parameter distributions; (4) testing parameter distributionsmore » for probabilistic analysis; (5) developing probabilistic software modules; and (6) testing probabilistic modules and integrated codes. The procedures used can be applied to the development of other multimedia probabilistic codes. The probabilistic versions of RESRAD and RESRAD-BUILD codes provide tools for studying the uncertainty in dose assessment caused by uncertain input parameters. The parameter distribution data collected in this work can also be applied to other multimedia assessment tasks and multimedia computer codes.« less
Probabilistic analysis on the failure of reactivity control for the PWR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sony Tjahyani, D. T.; Deswandri; Sunaryo, G. R.

2018-02-01

The fundamental safety function of the power reactor is to control reactivity, to remove heat from the reactor, and to confine radioactive material. The safety analysis is used to ensure that each parameter is fulfilled during the design and is done by deterministic and probabilistic method. The analysis of reactivity control is important to be done because it will affect the other of fundamental safety functions. The purpose of this research is to determine the failure probability of the reactivity control and its failure contribution on a PWR design. The analysis is carried out by determining intermediate events, which cause the failure of reactivity control. Furthermore, the basic event is determined by deductive method using the fault tree analysis. The AP1000 is used as the object of research. The probability data of component failure or human error, which is used in the analysis, is collected from IAEA, Westinghouse, NRC and other published documents. The results show that there are six intermediate events, which can cause the failure of the reactivity control. These intermediate events are uncontrolled rod bank withdrawal at low power or full power, malfunction of boron dilution, misalignment of control rod withdrawal, malfunction of improper position of fuel assembly and ejection of control rod. The failure probability of reactivity control is 1.49E-03 per year. The causes of failures which are affected by human factor are boron dilution, misalignment of control rod withdrawal and malfunction of improper position for fuel assembly. Based on the assessment, it is concluded that the failure probability of reactivity control on the PWR is still within the IAEA criteria.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Short, Steven M.; Coles, Garill A.; Bohlander, Karl L.

In June 2004 the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) amended its fire protection requirements to permit existing nuclear power reactor licensees to voluntarily adopt fire protection requirements contained in National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) Standard 805. NFPA 805 is a performance-based standard for nuclear power plant fire protection that is an alternative to the deterministic, prescriptive fire protection requirements, such as 10 CFR 50 Appendix R, that was issued in 1980. One aspect of implementing NFPA 805 is that the licensee adopts the performance goals, objectives, and criteria for nuclear safety specified in the Standard. These goals, objectives, and criteriamore » can be met through the implementation of deterministic approaches or performance-based approaches, including engineering analyses, probabilistic risk assessment, and fire modeling. Licensees voluntarily adopting the fire protection requirements in NFPA 805 must submit a license amendment request (LAR) to the NRC. The LAR provides the new proposed fire protection licensing basis, including the methodology and results of required evaluations and analyses that show how the NFPA 805 performance criteria are met. As of August 2014, licensees have submitted LARs for 26 nuclear power plants, representing 42 nuclear reactor units. Of these, 7 nuclear power plants, representing 10 nuclear reactor units, have been issued a safety evaluation (SE) by the NRC approving transition of their fire protection licensing basis to one that complies with NFPA 805. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) supports the NRC staff’s technical review of the LARs in the areas of fundamental fire protection, safe shutdown analysis, and Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). PNNL, of course, cannot speak for the nuclear industry and its choice of implementation strategies or the NRC staff’s assessment of the approaches being taken to adopt NFPA 805. However, as a reviewer of the technical details of these submittals, PNNL is in a position to observe the array of implementation tactics taken in these submittals, and observe different ways licensees are making the NFPA 805 process work. For example, we see differences in how fire areas are being transitioned, the kinds of plant modifications being implemented, the changes being made to plant procedures, the number and types of recovery actions being credited, and the kinds and extent of detailed modeling being performed in support of the Fire PRAs. As a caveat, we note that it is probably too early to comment on the overall success or limitations of the NFPA 805 process or provide lessons learned for the future. Furthermore, it is not our intention to endorse any particular approach taken in a submittal over another or to critique the industry or the regulator. Rather our goal in this paper is to summarize a set of interesting and useful differences across submittals that may provide context for further future discussions about what we (i.e., reviewers, industry, and regulators) have learned in being part of the NFPA process; and how to best use that information to inform future NFPA 805 activities or other risk-informed endeavors.« less
Quantifying Safety Margin Using the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grabaskas, David; Bucknor, Matthew; Brunett, Acacia

2015-04-26

The Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC), developed by Idaho National Laboratory as part of the Light-Water Reactor Sustainability Project, utilizes a probabilistic safety margin comparison between a load and capacity distribution, rather than a deterministic comparison between two values, as is usually done in best-estimate plus uncertainty analyses. The goal is to determine the failure probability, or in other words, the probability of the system load equaling or exceeding the system capacity. While this method has been used in pilot studies, there has been little work conducted investigating the statistical significance of the resulting failure probability. In particular, it ismore » difficult to determine how many simulations are necessary to properly characterize the failure probability. This work uses classical (frequentist) statistics and confidence intervals to examine the impact in statistical accuracy when the number of simulations is varied. Two methods are proposed to establish confidence intervals related to the failure probability established using a RISMC analysis. The confidence interval provides information about the statistical accuracy of the method utilized to explore the uncertainty space, and offers a quantitative method to gauge the increase in statistical accuracy due to performing additional simulations.« less
Forecasting risk along a river basin using a probabilistic and deterministic model for environmental risk assessment of effluents through ecotoxicological evaluation and GIS.

PubMed

Gutiérrez, Simón; Fernandez, Carlos; Barata, Carlos; Tarazona, José Vicente

2009-12-20

This work presents a computer model for Risk Assessment of Basins by Ecotoxicological Evaluation (RABETOX). The model is based on whole effluent toxicity testing and water flows along a specific river basin. It is capable of estimating the risk along a river segment using deterministic and probabilistic approaches. The Henares River Basin was selected as a case study to demonstrate the importance of seasonal hydrological variations in Mediterranean regions. As model inputs, two different ecotoxicity tests (the miniaturized Daphnia magna acute test and the D.magna feeding test) were performed on grab samples from 5 waste water treatment plant effluents. Also used as model inputs were flow data from the past 25 years, water velocity measurements and precise distance measurements using Geographical Information Systems (GIS). The model was implemented into a spreadsheet and the results were interpreted and represented using GIS in order to facilitate risk communication. To better understand the bioassays results, the effluents were screened through SPME-GC/MS analysis. The deterministic model, performed each month during one calendar year, showed a significant seasonal variation of risk while revealing that September represents the worst-case scenario with values up to 950 Risk Units. This classifies the entire area of study for the month of September as "sublethal significant risk for standard species". The probabilistic approach using Monte Carlo analysis was performed on 7 different forecast points distributed along the Henares River. A 0% probability of finding "low risk" was found at all forecast points with a more than 50% probability of finding "potential risk for sensitive species". The values obtained through both the deterministic and probabilistic approximations reveal the presence of certain substances, which might be causing sublethal effects in the aquatic species present in the Henares River.
FACTORS INFLUENCING TOTAL DIETARY EXPOSURES OF YOUNG CHILDREN

EPA Science Inventory

A deterministic model was developed to identify the critical input parameters needed to assess dietary intakes of young children. The model was used as a framework for understanding the important factors in data collection and data analysis. Factors incorporated into the model i...
Assessing and reporting uncertainties in dietary exposure analysis: Mapping of uncertainties in a tiered approach.

PubMed

Kettler, Susanne; Kennedy, Marc; McNamara, Cronan; Oberdörfer, Regina; O'Mahony, Cian; Schnabel, Jürgen; Smith, Benjamin; Sprong, Corinne; Faludi, Roland; Tennant, David

2015-08-01

Uncertainty analysis is an important component of dietary exposure assessments in order to understand correctly the strength and limits of its results. Often, standard screening procedures are applied in a first step which results in conservative estimates. If through those screening procedures a potential exceedance of health-based guidance values is indicated, within the tiered approach more refined models are applied. However, the sources and types of uncertainties in deterministic and probabilistic models can vary or differ. A key objective of this work has been the mapping of different sources and types of uncertainties to better understand how to best use uncertainty analysis to generate more realistic comprehension of dietary exposure. In dietary exposure assessments, uncertainties can be introduced by knowledge gaps about the exposure scenario, parameter and the model itself. With this mapping, general and model-independent uncertainties have been identified and described, as well as those which can be introduced and influenced by the specific model during the tiered approach. This analysis identifies that there are general uncertainties common to point estimates (screening or deterministic methods) and probabilistic exposure assessment methods. To provide further clarity, general sources of uncertainty affecting many dietary exposure assessments should be separated from model-specific uncertainties. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.
Risk assessment for pesticides' MRL non-compliances in Poland in the years 2011-2015.

PubMed

Struciński, Paweł; Ludwicki, Jan K; Góralczyk, Katarzyna; Czaja, Katarzyna; Hernik, Agnieszka; Liszewska, Monika

2015-01-01

Human exposure to trace levels of pesticide residues present in food of plant origin is inevitable as long as pesticides continue to be applied in agriculture. Since Maximum Residue Levels (MRL) are not toxicological endpoint values, their violation is not by default equivalent to health risk for consumers. However, its essential to provide a health- based risk assessment for each case of MRL non-compliance reported during monitoring and official control of foodstuffs. To assess the potential short-term risk associated with consumption of food products of plant origin containing pesticide residues above MRL values based on notifications forwarded by the National Contact Point for RASFF in Poland during 2011-2015. 115 notifications including 127 analytical results non-compliant with respective MRL values were forwarded to provide risk assessment. An internationally accepted deterministic approach based on conservative model assumptions for short-term exposure assessment was applied. The risk was characterized by comparing an estimated dietary intake with respective acute reference dose (ARfD). Black currant, tea, lettuce, Chinese cabbage and carrot were among the most frequently notified products in years 2011-2015. Among pesticides exceeding respective MRL values, over 90% belonged to fungicides and insecticides/acaricides such as acetamiprid, chlorpyrifos, dimethoate, imidacloprid, dithiocarbamates and procymidone. For 15 and 6 results noncompliant with respective MRL value, a predicted short-term intake exceeded ARfD for children and adults, respectively. Residue levels that could potentially pose a health threat are found incidentally. The science-based and transparent risk assessment process with regard to the data, methods and assumptions that are applied is essential to risk management authorities. risk assessment, pesticide residues, MRL, dietary intake, RASFF, food safety.
Assessing sequential data assimilation techniques for integrating GRACE data into a hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khaki, M.; Hoteit, I.; Kuhn, M.; Awange, J.; Forootan, E.; van Dijk, A. I. J. M.; Schumacher, M.; Pattiaratchi, C.

2017-09-01

The time-variable terrestrial water storage (TWS) products from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) have been increasingly used in recent years to improve the simulation of hydrological models by applying data assimilation techniques. In this study, for the first time, we assess the performance of the most popular data assimilation sequential techniques for integrating GRACE TWS into the World-Wide Water Resources Assessment (W3RA) model. We implement and test stochastic and deterministic ensemble-based Kalman filters (EnKF), as well as Particle filters (PF) using two different resampling approaches of Multinomial Resampling and Systematic Resampling. These choices provide various opportunities for weighting observations and model simulations during the assimilation and also accounting for error distributions. Particularly, the deterministic EnKF is tested to avoid perturbing observations before assimilation (that is the case in an ordinary EnKF). Gaussian-based random updates in the EnKF approaches likely do not fully represent the statistical properties of the model simulations and TWS observations. Therefore, the fully non-Gaussian PF is also applied to estimate more realistic updates. Monthly GRACE TWS are assimilated into W3RA covering the entire Australia. To evaluate the filters performances and analyze their impact on model simulations, their estimates are validated by independent in-situ measurements. Our results indicate that all implemented filters improve the estimation of water storage simulations of W3RA. The best results are obtained using two versions of deterministic EnKF, i.e. the Square Root Analysis (SQRA) scheme and the Ensemble Square Root Filter (EnSRF), respectively, improving the model groundwater estimations errors by 34% and 31% compared to a model run without assimilation. Applying the PF along with Systematic Resampling successfully decreases the model estimation error by 23%.
Risk of DDT residue in maize consumed by infants as complementary diet in southwest Ethiopia.

PubMed

Mekonen, Seblework; Lachat, Carl; Ambelu, Argaw; Steurbaut, Walter; Kolsteren, Patrick; Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Wondafrash, Mekitie; Houbraken, Michael; Spanoghe, Pieter

2015-04-01

Infants in Ethiopia are consuming food items such as maize as a complementary diet. However, this may expose infants to toxic contaminants like DDT. Maize samples were collected from the households visited during a consumption survey and from markets in Jimma zone, southwestern Ethiopia. The residues of total DDT and its metabolites were analyzed using the Quick, Easy, Cheap, Effective, Rugged and Safe (QuEChERS) method combined with dispersive solid phase extraction cleanup (d-SPE). Deterministic and probabilistic methods of analysis were applied to determine the consumer exposure of infants to total DDT. The results from the exposure assessment were compared with the health based guidance value in this case the provisional tolerable daily intake (PTDI). All maize samples (n=127) were contaminated by DDT, with a mean concentration of 1.770 mg/kg, which was far above the maximum residue limit (MRL). The mean and 97.5 percentile (P 97.5) estimated daily intake of total DDT for consumers were respectively 0.011 and 0.309 mg/kg bw/day for deterministic and 0.011 and 0.083 mg/kg bw/day for probabilistic exposure assessment. For total infant population (consumers and non-consumers), the 97.5 percentile estimated daily intake were 0.265 and 0.032 mg/kg bw/day from the deterministic and probabilistic exposure assessments, respectively. Health risk estimation revealed that, the mean and 97.5 percentile for consumers, and 97.5 percentile estimated daily intake of total DDT for total population were above the PTDI. Therefore, in Ethiopia, the use of maize as complementary food for infants may pose a health risk due to DDT residue. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Trend analysis of Arctic sea ice extent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, M. E.; Barbosa, S. M.; Antunes, Luís; Rocha, Conceição

2009-04-01

The extent of Arctic sea ice is a fundamental parameter of Arctic climate variability. In the context of climate change, the area covered by ice in the Arctic is a particularly useful indicator of recent changes in the Arctic environment. Climate models are in near universal agreement that Arctic sea ice extent will decline through the 21st century as a consequence of global warming and many studies predict a ice free Arctic as soon as 2012. Time series of satellite passive microwave observations allow to assess the temporal changes in the extent of Arctic sea ice. Much of the analysis of the ice extent time series, as in most climate studies from observational data, have been focussed on the computation of deterministic linear trends by ordinary least squares. However, many different processes, including deterministic, unit root and long-range dependent processes can engender trend like features in a time series. Several parametric tests have been developed, mainly in econometrics, to discriminate between stationarity (no trend), deterministic trend and stochastic trends. Here, these tests are applied in the trend analysis of the sea ice extent time series available at National Snow and Ice Data Center. The parametric stationary tests, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Phillips-Perron (PP) and the KPSS, do not support an overall deterministic trend in the time series of Arctic sea ice extent. Therefore, alternative parametrizations such as long-range dependence should be considered for characterising long-term Arctic sea ice variability.
Ensemble assimilation of ARGO temperature profile, sea surface temperature, and altimetric satellite data into an eddy permitting primitive equation model of the North Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Y.; Barth, A.; Beckers, J. M.; Candille, G.; Brankart, J. M.; Brasseur, P.

2015-07-01

Sea surface height, sea surface temperature, and temperature profiles at depth collected between January and December 2005 are assimilated into a realistic eddy permitting primitive equation model of the North Atlantic Ocean using the Ensemble Kalman Filter. Sixty ensemble members are generated by adding realistic noise to the forcing parameters related to the temperature. The ensemble is diagnosed and validated by comparison between the ensemble spread and the model/observation difference, as well as by rank histogram before the assimilation experiments. An incremental analysis update scheme is applied in order to reduce spurious oscillations due to the model state correction. The results of the assimilation are assessed according to both deterministic and probabilistic metrics with independent/semiindependent observations. For deterministic validation, the ensemble means, together with the ensemble spreads are compared to the observations, in order to diagnose the ensemble distribution properties in a deterministic way. For probabilistic validation, the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) is used to evaluate the ensemble forecast system according to reliability and resolution. The reliability is further decomposed into bias and dispersion by the reduced centered random variable (RCRV) score in order to investigate the reliability properties of the ensemble forecast system. The improvement of the assimilation is demonstrated using these validation metrics. Finally, the deterministic validation and the probabilistic validation are analyzed jointly. The consistency and complementarity between both validations are highlighted.
Probabilistic dose-response modeling: case study using dichloromethane PBPK model results.

PubMed

Marino, Dale J; Starr, Thomas B

2007-12-01

A revised assessment of dichloromethane (DCM) has recently been reported that examines the influence of human genetic polymorphisms on cancer risks using deterministic PBPK and dose-response modeling in the mouse combined with probabilistic PBPK modeling in humans. This assessment utilized Bayesian techniques to optimize kinetic variables in mice and humans with mean values from posterior distributions used in the deterministic modeling in the mouse. To supplement this research, a case study was undertaken to examine the potential impact of probabilistic rather than deterministic PBPK and dose-response modeling in mice on subsequent unit risk factor (URF) determinations. Four separate PBPK cases were examined based on the exposure regimen of the NTP DCM bioassay. These were (a) Same Mouse (single draw of all PBPK inputs for both treatment groups); (b) Correlated BW-Same Inputs (single draw of all PBPK inputs for both treatment groups except for bodyweights (BWs), which were entered as correlated variables); (c) Correlated BW-Different Inputs (separate draws of all PBPK inputs for both treatment groups except that BWs were entered as correlated variables); and (d) Different Mouse (separate draws of all PBPK inputs for both treatment groups). Monte Carlo PBPK inputs reflect posterior distributions from Bayesian calibration in the mouse that had been previously reported. A minimum of 12,500 PBPK iterations were undertaken, in which dose metrics, i.e., mg DCM metabolized by the GST pathway/L tissue/day for lung and liver were determined. For dose-response modeling, these metrics were combined with NTP tumor incidence data that were randomly selected from binomial distributions. Resultant potency factors (0.1/ED(10)) were coupled with probabilistic PBPK modeling in humans that incorporated genetic polymorphisms to derive URFs. Results show that there was relatively little difference, i.e., <10% in central tendency and upper percentile URFs, regardless of the case evaluated. Independent draws of PBPK inputs resulted in the slightly higher URFs. Results were also comparable to corresponding values from the previously reported deterministic mouse PBPK and dose-response modeling approach that used LED(10)s to derive potency factors. This finding indicated that the adjustment from ED(10) to LED(10) in the deterministic approach for DCM compensated for variability resulting from probabilistic PBPK and dose-response modeling in the mouse. Finally, results show a similar degree of variability in DCM risk estimates from a number of different sources including the current effort even though these estimates were developed using very different techniques. Given the variety of different approaches involved, 95th percentile-to-mean risk estimate ratios of 2.1-4.1 represent reasonable bounds on variability estimates regarding probabilistic assessments of DCM.
Criticality Calculations with MCNP6 - Practical Lectures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brown, Forrest B.; Rising, Michael Evan; Alwin, Jennifer Louise

2016-11-29

These slides are used to teach MCNP (Monte Carlo N-Particle) usage to nuclear criticality safety analysts. The following are the lecture topics: course information, introduction, MCNP basics, criticality calculations, advanced geometry, tallies, adjoint-weighted tallies and sensitivities, physics and nuclear data, parameter studies, NCS validation I, NCS validation II, NCS validation III, case study 1 - solution tanks, case study 2 - fuel vault, case study 3 - B&W core, case study 4 - simple TRIGA, case study 5 - fissile mat. vault, criticality accident alarm systems. After completion of this course, you should be able to: Develop an input modelmore » for MCNP; Describe how cross section data impact Monte Carlo and deterministic codes; Describe the importance of validation of computer codes and how it is accomplished; Describe the methodology supporting Monte Carlo codes and deterministic codes; Describe pitfalls of Monte Carlo calculations; Discuss the strengths and weaknesses of Monte Carlo and Discrete Ordinants codes; The diffusion theory model is not strictly valid for treating fissile systems in which neutron absorption, voids, and/or material boundaries are present. In the context of these limitations, identify a fissile system for which a diffusion theory solution would be adequate.« less
A Deterministic Computational Procedure for Space Environment Electron Transport

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nealy, John E.; Chang, C. K.; Norman, Ryan B.; Blattnig, Steve R.; Badavi, Francis F.; Adamcyk, Anne M.

2010-01-01

A deterministic computational procedure for describing the transport of electrons in condensed media is formulated to simulate the effects and exposures from spectral distributions typical of electrons trapped in planetary magnetic fields. The primary purpose for developing the procedure is to provide a means of rapidly performing numerous repetitive transport calculations essential for electron radiation exposure assessments for complex space structures. The present code utilizes well-established theoretical representations to describe the relevant interactions and transport processes. A combined mean free path and average trajectory approach is used in the transport formalism. For typical space environment spectra, several favorable comparisons with Monte Carlo calculations are made which have indicated that accuracy is not compromised at the expense of the computational speed.
76 FR 28102 - Notice of Issuance of Regulatory Guide

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-05-13

..., Probabilistic Risk Assessment Branch, Division of Risk Analysis, Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, U.S... approaches and methods (whether quantitative or qualitative, deterministic or probabilistic), data, and... uses in evaluating specific problems or postulated accidents, and data that the staff needs in its...
Evaluation of electromagnetic interference and exposure assessment from s-health solutions based on Wi-Fi devices.

PubMed

de Miguel-Bilbao, Silvia; Aguirre, Erik; Lopez Iturri, Peio; Azpilicueta, Leire; Roldán, José; Falcone, Francisco; Ramos, Victoria

2015-01-01

In the last decade the number of wireless devices operating at the frequency band of 2.4 GHz has increased in several settings, such as healthcare, occupational, and household. In this work, the emissions from Wi-Fi transceivers applicable to context aware scenarios are analyzed in terms of potential interference and assessment on exposure guideline compliance. Near field measurement results as well as deterministic simulation results on realistic indoor environments are presented, providing insight on the interaction between the Wi-Fi transceiver and implantable/body area network devices as well as other transceivers operating within an indoor environment, exhibiting topological and morphological complexity. By following approaches (near field estimation/deterministic estimation), colocated body situations as well as large indoor emissions can be determined. The results show in general compliance with exposure levels and the impact of overall network deployment, which can be optimized in order to reduce overall interference levels while maximizing system performance.

Evaluation of Electromagnetic Interference and Exposure Assessment from s-Health Solutions Based on Wi-Fi Devices

PubMed Central

de Miguel-Bilbao, Silvia; Aguirre, Erik; Lopez Iturri, Peio; Azpilicueta, Leire; Roldán, José; Falcone, Francisco; Ramos, Victoria

2015-01-01

In the last decade the number of wireless devices operating at the frequency band of 2.4 GHz has increased in several settings, such as healthcare, occupational, and household. In this work, the emissions from Wi-Fi transceivers applicable to context aware scenarios are analyzed in terms of potential interference and assessment on exposure guideline compliance. Near field measurement results as well as deterministic simulation results on realistic indoor environments are presented, providing insight on the interaction between the Wi-Fi transceiver and implantable/body area network devices as well as other transceivers operating within an indoor environment, exhibiting topological and morphological complexity. By following approaches (near field estimation/deterministic estimation), colocated body situations as well as large indoor emissions can be determined. The results show in general compliance with exposure levels and the impact of overall network deployment, which can be optimized in order to reduce overall interference levels while maximizing system performance. PMID:25632400
Global forecasting of thermal health hazards: the skill of probabilistic predictions of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI).

PubMed

Pappenberger, F; Jendritzky, G; Staiger, H; Dutra, E; Di Giuseppe, F; Richardson, D S; Cloke, H L

2015-03-01

Although over a hundred thermal indices can be used for assessing thermal health hazards, many ignore the human heat budget, physiology and clothing. The Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) addresses these shortcomings by using an advanced thermo-physiological model. This paper assesses the potential of using the UTCI for forecasting thermal health hazards. Traditionally, such hazard forecasting has had two further limitations: it has been narrowly focused on a particular region or nation and has relied on the use of single 'deterministic' forecasts. Here, the UTCI is computed on a global scale, which is essential for international health-hazard warnings and disaster preparedness, and it is provided as a probabilistic forecast. It is shown that probabilistic UTCI forecasts are superior in skill to deterministic forecasts and that despite global variations, the UTCI forecast is skilful for lead times up to 10 days. The paper also demonstrates the utility of probabilistic UTCI forecasts on the example of the 2010 heat wave in Russia.
Considering inventory distributions in a stochastic periodic inventory routing system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yadollahi, Ehsan; Aghezzaf, El-Houssaine

2017-07-01

Dealing with the stochasticity of parameters is one of the critical issues in business and industry nowadays. Supply chain planners have difficulties in forecasting stochastic parameters of a distribution system. Demand rates of customers during their lead time are one of these parameters. In addition, holding a huge level of inventory at the retailers is costly and inefficient. To cover the uncertainty of forecasting demand rates, researchers have proposed the usage of safety stock to avoid stock-out. However, finding the precise level of safety stock depends on forecasting the statistical distribution of demand rates and their variations in different settings among the planning horizon. In this paper the demand rate distributions and its parameters are taken into account for each time period in a stochastic periodic IRP. An analysis of the achieved statistical distribution of the inventory and safety stock level is provided to measure the effects of input parameters on the output indicators. Different values for coefficient of variation are applied to the customers' demand rate in the optimization model. The outcome of the deterministic equivalent model of SPIRP is simulated in form of an illustrative case.
Water body and riparian buffer strip characteristics in a vineyard area to support aquatic pesticide exposure assessment.

PubMed

Ohliger, Renja; Schulz, Ralf

2010-10-15

The implementation of a geodata-based probabilistic pesticide exposure assessment for surface waters in Germany offers the opportunity to base the exposure estimation on more differentiated assumptions including detailed landscape characteristics. Since these characteristics can only be estimated using field surveys, water body width and depth, hydrology, riparian buffer strip width, ground vegetation cover, existence of concentrated flow paths, and riparian vegetation were characterised at 104 water body segments in the vineyard region Palatinate (south-west Germany). Water body segments classified as permanent (n=43) had median values of water body width and depth of 0.9m and 0.06m, respectively, and the determined median width:depth ratio was 15. Thus, the deterministic water body model (width=1m; depth=0.3m) assumed in regulatory exposure assessment seems unsuitable for small water bodies in the study area. Only 25% of investigated buffer strips had a dense vegetation cover (>70%) and allow a laminar sheet flow as required to include them as an effective pesticide runoff reduction landscape characteristic. At 77 buffer strips, bordering field paths and erosion rills leading into the water body were present, concentrating pesticide runoff and consequently decreasing buffer strip efficiency. The vegetation type shrubbery (height>1.5m) was present at 57 (29%) investigated riparian buffer strips. According to their median optical vegetation density of 75%, shrubberies may provide a spray drift reduction of 72±29%. Implementing detailed knowledge in an overall assessment revealed that exposure via drift might be 2.4 and via runoff up to 1.6 fold higher than assumed by the deterministic approach. Furthermore, considering vegetated buffer strips only by their width leads to an underestimation of exposure by a factor of as much as four. Our data highlight that the deterministic model assumptions neither represent worst-case nor median values and therefore cannot simply be adopted in a probabilistic approach. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
An approach to model reactor core nodalization for deterministic safety analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salim, Mohd Faiz; Samsudin, Mohd Rafie; Mamat @ Ibrahim, Mohd Rizal; Roslan, Ridha; Sadri, Abd Aziz; Farid, Mohd Fairus Abd

2016-01-01

Adopting good nodalization strategy is essential to produce an accurate and high quality input model for Deterministic Safety Analysis (DSA) using System Thermal-Hydraulic (SYS-TH) computer code. The purpose of such analysis is to demonstrate the compliance against regulatory requirements and to verify the behavior of the reactor during normal and accident conditions as it was originally designed. Numerous studies in the past have been devoted to the development of the nodalization strategy for small research reactor (e.g. 250kW) up to the bigger research reactor (e.g. 30MW). As such, this paper aims to discuss the state-of-arts thermal hydraulics channel to be employed in the nodalization for RTP-TRIGA Research Reactor specifically for the reactor core. At present, the required thermal-hydraulic parameters for reactor core, such as core geometrical data (length, coolant flow area, hydraulic diameters, and axial power profile) and material properties (including the UZrH1.6, stainless steel clad, graphite reflector) have been collected, analyzed and consolidated in the Reference Database of RTP using standardized methodology, mainly derived from the available technical documentations. Based on the available information in the database, assumptions made on the nodalization approach and calculations performed will be discussed and presented. The development and identification of the thermal hydraulics channel for the reactor core will be implemented during the SYS-TH calculation using RELAP5-3D® computer code. This activity presented in this paper is part of the development of overall nodalization description for RTP-TRIGA Research Reactor under the IAEA Norwegian Extra-Budgetary Programme (NOKEBP) mentoring project on Expertise Development through the Analysis of Reactor Thermal-Hydraulics for Malaysia, denoted as EARTH-M.
An approach to model reactor core nodalization for deterministic safety analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Salim, Mohd Faiz, E-mail: mohdfaizs@tnb.com.my; Samsudin, Mohd Rafie, E-mail: rafies@tnb.com.my; Mamat Ibrahim, Mohd Rizal, E-mail: m-rizal@nuclearmalaysia.gov.my

Adopting good nodalization strategy is essential to produce an accurate and high quality input model for Deterministic Safety Analysis (DSA) using System Thermal-Hydraulic (SYS-TH) computer code. The purpose of such analysis is to demonstrate the compliance against regulatory requirements and to verify the behavior of the reactor during normal and accident conditions as it was originally designed. Numerous studies in the past have been devoted to the development of the nodalization strategy for small research reactor (e.g. 250kW) up to the bigger research reactor (e.g. 30MW). As such, this paper aims to discuss the state-of-arts thermal hydraulics channel to bemore » employed in the nodalization for RTP-TRIGA Research Reactor specifically for the reactor core. At present, the required thermal-hydraulic parameters for reactor core, such as core geometrical data (length, coolant flow area, hydraulic diameters, and axial power profile) and material properties (including the UZrH{sub 1.6}, stainless steel clad, graphite reflector) have been collected, analyzed and consolidated in the Reference Database of RTP using standardized methodology, mainly derived from the available technical documentations. Based on the available information in the database, assumptions made on the nodalization approach and calculations performed will be discussed and presented. The development and identification of the thermal hydraulics channel for the reactor core will be implemented during the SYS-TH calculation using RELAP5-3D{sup ®} computer code. This activity presented in this paper is part of the development of overall nodalization description for RTP-TRIGA Research Reactor under the IAEA Norwegian Extra-Budgetary Programme (NOKEBP) mentoring project on Expertise Development through the Analysis of Reactor Thermal-Hydraulics for Malaysia, denoted as EARTH-M.« less
Probabilistic vs. deterministic fiber tracking and the influence of different seed regions to delineate cerebellar-thalamic fibers in deep brain stimulation.

PubMed

Schlaier, Juergen R; Beer, Anton L; Faltermeier, Rupert; Fellner, Claudia; Steib, Kathrin; Lange, Max; Greenlee, Mark W; Brawanski, Alexander T; Anthofer, Judith M

2017-06-01

This study compared tractography approaches for identifying cerebellar-thalamic fiber bundles relevant to planning target sites for deep brain stimulation (DBS). In particular, probabilistic and deterministic tracking of the dentate-rubro-thalamic tract (DRTT) and differences between the spatial courses of the DRTT and the cerebello-thalamo-cortical (CTC) tract were compared. Six patients with movement disorders were examined by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), including two sets of diffusion-weighted images (12 and 64 directions). Probabilistic and deterministic tractography was applied on each diffusion-weighted dataset to delineate the DRTT. Results were compared with regard to their sensitivity in revealing the DRTT and additional fiber tracts and processing time. Two sets of regions-of-interests (ROIs) guided deterministic tractography of the DRTT or the CTC, respectively. Tract distances to an atlas-based reference target were compared. Probabilistic fiber tracking with 64 orientations detected the DRTT in all twelve hemispheres. Deterministic tracking detected the DRTT in nine (12 directions) and in only two (64 directions) hemispheres. Probabilistic tracking was more sensitive in detecting additional fibers (e.g. ansa lenticularis and medial forebrain bundle) than deterministic tracking. Probabilistic tracking lasted substantially longer than deterministic. Deterministic tracking was more sensitive in detecting the CTC than the DRTT. CTC tracts were located adjacent but consistently more posterior to DRTT tracts. These results suggest that probabilistic tracking is more sensitive and robust in detecting the DRTT but harder to implement than deterministic approaches. Although sensitivity of deterministic tracking is higher for the CTC than the DRTT, targets for DBS based on these tracts likely differ. © 2017 Federation of European Neuroscience Societies and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Evidence for determinism in species diversification and contingency in phenotypic evolution during adaptive radiation.

PubMed

Burbrink, Frank T; Chen, Xin; Myers, Edward A; Brandley, Matthew C; Pyron, R Alexander

2012-12-07

Adaptive radiation (AR) theory predicts that groups sharing the same source of ecological opportunity (EO) will experience deterministic species diversification and morphological evolution. Thus, deterministic ecological and morphological evolution should be correlated with deterministic patterns in the tempo and mode of speciation for groups in similar habitats and time periods. We test this hypothesis using well-sampled phylogenies of four squamate groups that colonized the New World (NW) in the Late Oligocene. We use both standard and coalescent models to assess species diversification, as well as likelihood models to examine morphological evolution. All squamate groups show similar early pulses of speciation, as well as diversity-dependent ecological limits on clade size at a continental scale. In contrast, processes of morphological evolution are not easily predictable and do not show similar pulses of early and rapid change. Patterns of morphological and species diversification thus appear uncoupled across these groups. This indicates that the processes that drive diversification and disparification are not mechanistically linked, even among similar groups of taxa experiencing the same sources of EO. It also suggests that processes of phenotypic diversification cannot be predicted solely from the existence of an AR or knowledge of the process of diversification.
Evidence for determinism in species diversification and contingency in phenotypic evolution during adaptive radiation

PubMed Central

Burbrink, Frank T.; Chen, Xin; Myers, Edward A.; Brandley, Matthew C.; Pyron, R. Alexander

2012-01-01

Adaptive radiation (AR) theory predicts that groups sharing the same source of ecological opportunity (EO) will experience deterministic species diversification and morphological evolution. Thus, deterministic ecological and morphological evolution should be correlated with deterministic patterns in the tempo and mode of speciation for groups in similar habitats and time periods. We test this hypothesis using well-sampled phylogenies of four squamate groups that colonized the New World (NW) in the Late Oligocene. We use both standard and coalescent models to assess species diversification, as well as likelihood models to examine morphological evolution. All squamate groups show similar early pulses of speciation, as well as diversity-dependent ecological limits on clade size at a continental scale. In contrast, processes of morphological evolution are not easily predictable and do not show similar pulses of early and rapid change. Patterns of morphological and species diversification thus appear uncoupled across these groups. This indicates that the processes that drive diversification and disparification are not mechanistically linked, even among similar groups of taxa experiencing the same sources of EO. It also suggests that processes of phenotypic diversification cannot be predicted solely from the existence of an AR or knowledge of the process of diversification. PMID:23034709
Development of a framework for the assessment of capacity and throughput technologies within the National Airspace System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia, Elena

The demand for air travel is expanding beyond the capacity of the existing National Airspace System. Excess traffic results in delays and compromised safety. Thus, a number of initiatives to improve airspace capacity have been proposed. To assess the impact of these technologies on air traffic one must move beyond the vehicle to a system-of-systems point of view. This top-level perspective must include consideration of the aircraft, airports, air traffic control and airlines that make up the airspace system. In addition to these components and their interactions economics, safety and government regulations must also be considered. Furthermore, the air transportation system is inherently variable with changes in everything from fuel prices to the weather. The development of a modeling environment that enables a comprehensive probabilistic evaluation of technological impacts was the subject of this thesis. The final modeling environment developed used economics as the thread to tie the airspace components together. Airport capacities and delays were calculated explicitly with due consideration to the impacts of air traffic control. The delay costs were then calculated for an entire fleet, and an airline economic analysis, considering the impact of these costs, was carried out. Airline return on investment was considered the metric of choice since it brings together all costs and revenues, including the cost of delays, landing fees for airport use and aircraft financing costs. Safety was found to require a level of detail unsuitable for a system-of-systems approach and was relegated to future airspace studies. Environmental concerns were considered to be incorporated into airport regulations and procedures and were not explicitly modeled. A deterministic case study was developed to test this modeling environment. The Atlanta airport operations for the year 2000 were used for validation purposes. A 2005 baseline was used as a basis for comparing the four technologies considered: a very large aircraft, Terminal Area Productivity air traffic control technologies, smoothing of an airline schedule, and the addition of a runway. A case including all four technologies simultaneously was also considered. Unfortunately, the complexity of the system prevented full exploration of the probabilistic aspects of the National Airspace System.
Deterministic quantum dense coding networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, Saptarshi; Chanda, Titas; Das, Tamoghna; Sen(De), Aditi; Sen, Ujjwal

2018-07-01

We consider the scenario of deterministic classical information transmission between multiple senders and a single receiver, when they a priori share a multipartite quantum state - an attempt towards building a deterministic dense coding network. Specifically, we prove that in the case of two or three senders and a single receiver, generalized Greenberger-Horne-Zeilinger (gGHZ) states are not beneficial for sending classical information deterministically beyond the classical limit, except when the shared state is the GHZ state itself. On the other hand, three- and four-qubit generalized W (gW) states with specific parameters as well as the four-qubit Dicke states can provide a quantum advantage of sending the information in deterministic dense coding. Interestingly however, numerical simulations in the three-qubit scenario reveal that the percentage of states from the GHZ-class that are deterministic dense codeable is higher than that of states from the W-class.
Exploring Reading Comprehension Skill Relationships through the G-DINA Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Huilin; Chen, Jinsong

2016-01-01

By analysing the test data of 1029 British secondary school students' performance on 20 Programme for International Student Assessment English reading items through the generalised deterministic input, noisy "and" gate (G-DINA) model, the study conducted two investigations on exploring the relationships among the five reading…
ASSESSMENT OF TWO PHYSICALLY BASED WATERSHED MODELS BASED ON THEIR PERFORMANCES OF SIMULATING SEDIMENT MOVEMENT OVER SMALL WATERSHEDS

EPA Science Inventory

Abstract: Two physically based and deterministic models, CASC2-D and KINEROS are evaluated and compared for their performances on modeling sediment movement on a small agricultural watershed over several events. Each model has different conceptualization of a watershed. CASC...
Deterministic Demographic Characteristics in Tertiary Education: An Exploratory Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morton, Lisa; Lamb, Charles

2006-01-01

This paper reports the responses of 235 tertiary commerce students to a questionnaire in relation to their learning and assessment experiences. Significant correlations between measures were used to identify underlying constructs within the overall set of variable measures. Logistic regression incorporating the factors was then used to further…
A generalized sizing method for revolutionary concepts under probabilistic design constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nam, Taewoo

Internal combustion (IC) engines that consume hydrocarbon fuels have dominated the propulsion systems of air-vehicles for the first century of aviation. In recent years, however, growing concern over rapid climate changes and national energy security has galvanized the aerospace community into delving into new alternatives that could challenge the dominance of the IC engine. Nevertheless, traditional aircraft sizing methods have significant shortcomings for the design of such unconventionally powered aircraft. First, the methods are specialized for aircraft powered by IC engines, and thus are not flexible enough to assess revolutionary propulsion concepts that produce propulsive thrust through a completely different energy conversion process. Another deficiency associated with the traditional methods is that a user of these methods must rely heavily on experts' experience and advice for determining appropriate design margins. However, the introduction of revolutionary propulsion systems and energy sources is very likely to entail an unconventional aircraft configuration, which inexorably disqualifies the conjecture of such "connoisseurs" as a means of risk management. Motivated by such deficiencies, this dissertation aims at advancing two aspects of aircraft sizing: (1) to develop a generalized aircraft sizing formulation applicable to a wide range of unconventionally powered aircraft concepts and (2) to formulate a probabilistic optimization technique that is able to quantify appropriate design margins that are tailored towards the level of risk deemed acceptable to a decision maker. A more generalized aircraft sizing formulation, named the Architecture Independent Aircraft Sizing Method (AIASM), was developed for sizing revolutionary aircraft powered by alternative energy sources by modifying several assumptions of the traditional aircraft sizing method. Along with advances in deterministic aircraft sizing, a non-deterministic sizing technique, named the Probabilistic Aircraft Sizing Method (PASM), was developed. The method allows one to quantify adequate design margins to account for the various sources of uncertainty via the application of the chance-constrained programming (CCP) strategy to AIASM. In this way, PASM can also provide insights into a good compromise between cost and safety.
Multi-parametric variational data assimilation for hydrological forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarado-Montero, R.; Schwanenberg, D.; Krahe, P.; Helmke, P.; Klein, B.

2017-12-01

Ensemble forecasting is increasingly applied in flow forecasting systems to provide users with a better understanding of forecast uncertainty and consequently to take better-informed decisions. A common practice in probabilistic streamflow forecasting is to force deterministic hydrological model with an ensemble of numerical weather predictions. This approach aims at the representation of meteorological uncertainty but neglects uncertainty of the hydrological model as well as its initial conditions. Complementary approaches use probabilistic data assimilation techniques to receive a variety of initial states or represent model uncertainty by model pools instead of single deterministic models. This paper introduces a novel approach that extends a variational data assimilation based on Moving Horizon Estimation to enable the assimilation of observations into multi-parametric model pools. It results in a probabilistic estimate of initial model states that takes into account the parametric model uncertainty in the data assimilation. The assimilation technique is applied to the uppermost area of River Main in Germany. We use different parametric pools, each of them with five parameter sets, to assimilate streamflow data, as well as remotely sensed data from the H-SAF project. We assess the impact of the assimilation in the lead time performance of perfect forecasts (i.e. observed data as forcing variables) as well as deterministic and probabilistic forecasts from ECMWF. The multi-parametric assimilation shows an improvement of up to 23% for CRPS performance and approximately 20% in Brier Skill Scores with respect to the deterministic approach. It also improves the skill of the forecast in terms of rank histogram and produces a narrower ensemble spread.
Reliability-based structural optimization: A proposed analytical-experimental study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stroud, W. Jefferson; Nikolaidis, Efstratios

1993-01-01

An analytical and experimental study for assessing the potential of reliability-based structural optimization is proposed and described. In the study, competing designs obtained by deterministic and reliability-based optimization are compared. The experimental portion of the study is practical because the structure selected is a modular, actively and passively controlled truss that consists of many identical members, and because the competing designs are compared in terms of their dynamic performance and are not destroyed if failure occurs. The analytical portion of this study is illustrated on a 10-bar truss example. In the illustrative example, it is shown that reliability-based optimization can yield a design that is superior to an alternative design obtained by deterministic optimization. These analytical results provide motivation for the proposed study, which is underway.
Spatial delineation, fluid-lithology characterization, and petrophysical modeling of deepwater Gulf of Mexico reservoirs though joint AVA deterministic and stochastic inversion of three-dimensional partially-stacked seismic amplitude data and well logs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Contreras, Arturo Javier

This dissertation describes a novel Amplitude-versus-Angle (AVA) inversion methodology to quantitatively integrate pre-stack seismic data, well logs, geologic data, and geostatistical information. Deterministic and stochastic inversion algorithms are used to characterize flow units of deepwater reservoirs located in the central Gulf of Mexico. A detailed fluid/lithology sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess the nature of AVA effects in the study area. Standard AVA analysis indicates that the shale/sand interface represented by the top of the hydrocarbon-bearing turbidite deposits generate typical Class III AVA responses. Layer-dependent Biot-Gassmann analysis shows significant sensitivity of the P-wave velocity and density to fluid substitution, indicating that presence of light saturating fluids clearly affects the elastic response of sands. Accordingly, AVA deterministic and stochastic inversions, which combine the advantages of AVA analysis with those of inversion, have provided quantitative information about the lateral continuity of the turbidite reservoirs based on the interpretation of inverted acoustic properties and fluid-sensitive modulus attributes (P-Impedance, S-Impedance, density, and LambdaRho, in the case of deterministic inversion; and P-velocity, S-velocity, density, and lithotype (sand-shale) distributions, in the case of stochastic inversion). The quantitative use of rock/fluid information through AVA seismic data, coupled with the implementation of co-simulation via lithotype-dependent multidimensional joint probability distributions of acoustic/petrophysical properties, provides accurate 3D models of petrophysical properties such as porosity, permeability, and water saturation. Pre-stack stochastic inversion provides more realistic and higher-resolution results than those obtained from analogous deterministic techniques. Furthermore, 3D petrophysical models can be more accurately co-simulated from AVA stochastic inversion results. By combining AVA sensitivity analysis techniques with pre-stack stochastic inversion, geologic data, and awareness of inversion pitfalls, it is possible to substantially reduce the risk in exploration and development of conventional and non-conventional reservoirs. From the final integration of deterministic and stochastic inversion results with depositional models and analogous examples, the M-series reservoirs have been interpreted as stacked terminal turbidite lobes within an overall fan complex (the Miocene MCAVLU Submarine Fan System); this interpretation is consistent with previous core data interpretations and regional stratigraphic/depositional studies.
Severe Accident Sequence Analysis Program: Anticipated transient without scram simulations for Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant Unit 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dallman, R J; Gottula, R C; Holcomb, E E

1987-05-01

An analysis of five anticipated transients without scram (ATWS) was conducted at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). The five detailed deterministic simulations of postulated ATWS sequences were initiated from a main steamline isolation valve (MSIV) closure. The subject of the analysis was the Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant Unit 1, a boiling water reactor (BWR) of the BWR/4 product line with a Mark I containment. The simulations yielded insights to the possible consequences resulting from a MSIV closure ATWS. An evaluation of the effects of plant safety systems and operator actions on accident progression and mitigation is presented.
An in-situ stimulation experiment in crystalline rock - assessment of induced seismicity levels during stimulation and related hazard for nearby infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gischig, Valentin; Broccardo, Marco; Amann, Florian; Jalali, Mohammadreza; Esposito, Simona; Krietsch, Hannes; Doetsch, Joseph; Madonna, Claudio; Wiemer, Stefan; Loew, Simon; Giardini, Domenico

2016-04-01

A decameter in-situ stimulation experiment is currently being performed at the Grimsel Test Site in Switzerland by the Swiss Competence Center for Energy Research - Supply of Electricity (SCCER-SoE). The underground research laboratory lies in crystalline rock at a depth of 480 m, and exhibits well-documented geology that is presenting some analogies with the crystalline basement targeted for the exploitation of deep geothermal energy resources in Switzerland. The goal is to perform a series of stimulation experiments spanning from hydraulic fracturing to controlled fault-slip experiments in an experimental volume approximately 30 m in diameter. The experiments will contribute to a better understanding of hydro-mechanical phenomena and induced seismicity associated with high-pressure fluid injections. Comprehensive monitoring during stimulation will include observation of injection rate and pressure, pressure propagation in the reservoir, permeability enhancement, 3D dislocation along the faults, rock mass deformation near the fault zone, as well as micro-seismicity. The experimental volume is surrounded by other in-situ experiments (at 50 to 500 m distance) and by infrastructure of the local hydropower company (at ~100 m to several kilometres distance). Although it is generally agreed among stakeholders related to the experiments that levels of induced seismicity may be low given the small total injection volumes of less than 1 m3, detailed analysis of the potential impact of the stimulation on other experiments and surrounding infrastructure is essential to ensure operational safety. In this contribution, we present a procedure how induced seismic hazard can be estimated for an experimental situation that is untypical for injection-induced seismicity in terms of injection volumes, injection depths and proximity to affected objects. Both, deterministic and probabilistic methods are employed to estimate that maximum possible and the maximum expected induced earthquake magnitude. Deterministic methods are based on McGarr's upper limit for the maximum induced seismic moment. Probabilistic methods rely on estimates of Shapiro's seismogenic index and seismicity rates from past stimulation experiments that are scaled to injection volumes of interest. Using rate-and-state frictional modelling coupled to a hydro-mechanical fracture flow model, we demonstrate that large uncontrolled rupture events are unlikely to occur and that deterministic upper limits may be sufficiently conservative. The proposed workflow can be applied to similar injection experiments, for which hazard to nearby infrastructure may limit experimental design.

Deterministic Approach for Estimating Critical Rainfall Threshold of Rainfall-induced Landslide in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chung, Ming-Chien; Tan, Chih-Hao; Chen, Mien-Min; Su, Tai-Wei

2013-04-01

Taiwan is an active mountain belt created by the oblique collision between the northern Luzon arc and the Asian continental margin. The inherent complexities of geological nature create numerous discontinuities through rock masses and relatively steep hillside on the island. In recent years, the increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme natural events due to global warming or climate change brought significant landslides. The causes of landslides in these slopes are attributed to a number of factors. As is well known, rainfall is one of the most significant triggering factors for landslide occurrence. In general, the rainfall infiltration results in changing the suction and the moisture of soil, raising the unit weight of soil, and reducing the shear strength of soil in the colluvium of landslide. The stability of landslide is closely related to the groundwater pressure in response to rainfall infiltration, the geological and topographical conditions, and the physical and mechanical parameters. To assess the potential susceptibility to landslide, an effective modeling of rainfall-induced landslide is essential. In this paper, a deterministic approach is adopted to estimate the critical rainfall threshold of the rainfall-induced landslide. The critical rainfall threshold is defined as the accumulated rainfall while the safety factor of the slope is equal to 1.0. First, the process of deterministic approach establishes the hydrogeological conceptual model of the slope based on a series of in-situ investigations, including geological drilling, surface geological investigation, geophysical investigation, and borehole explorations. The material strength and hydraulic properties of the model were given by the field and laboratory tests. Second, the hydraulic and mechanical parameters of the model are calibrated with the long-term monitoring data. Furthermore, a two-dimensional numerical program, GeoStudio, was employed to perform the modelling practice. Finally, the critical rainfall threshold of the slope can be obtained by the coupled analysis of rainfall, infiltration, seepage, and slope stability. Taking the slope located at 50k+650 on Tainan county road No 174 as an example, it located at Zeng-Wun river watershed in the southern Taiwan, is an active landslide due to typhoon events. Coordinates for the case study site are 194925, 2567208 (TWD97). The site was selected as the results of previous reports and geological survey. According to the Central Weather Bureau, the annual precipitation is about 2,450 mm, the highest monthly value is in August with 630 mm, and the lowest value is in November with 13 mm. The results show that the critical rainfall threshold of the study case is around 640 mm. It means that there should be alarmed when the accumulated rainfall over 640 mm. Our preliminary results appear to be useful for rainfall-induced landslide hazard assessments. The findings are also a good reference to establish an early warning system of landslides and develop strategies to prevent so much misfortune from happening in the future.
Deterministic seismogenic scenarios based on asperities spatial distribution to assess tsunami hazard on northern Chile (18°S to 24°S)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Carrasco, J. F.

2016-12-01

Southern Peru and northern Chile coastal areas, extended between 12º to 24ºS, have been recognized as a mature seismic gap with a high seismogenic potential associated to seismic moment deficit accumulated since 1877. An important scientific question is which will be the breaking pattern of a future megathrust earthquake, being relevant from hazard assessment perspective. During the last decade, the occurrence of three major subduction earthquakes has given the possibility to acquire outstanding geophysical and geological information to know the behavior of phenomena. An interesting result is the relationship between the maximum slip areas and the spatial distribution of asperities in subduction zones. In this contribution, we propose a methodology to identify a regional pattern of main asperities to construct reliable seismogenic scenarios in a seismic gap. We follow a deterministic approach to explore the distribution of asperities segmentation using geophysical and geodetic data as trench-parallel gravity anomaly (TPGA), interseismic coupling (ISC), b-value, historical moment release, residual bathymetric and gravity anomalies. The combined information represents physical constraints for short and long term suitable regions for future mega earthquakes. To illuminate the asperities distribution, we construct profiles using fault coordinates, along-strike and down-dip direction, of all proxies to define the boundaries of a major asperities (> 100 km). The geometry of a major asperity is useful to define a finite set of future deterministic seismogenic scenarios to evaluate tsunamigenic hazard in main cities of northern zone of Chile (18°S to 24°S).
Impacts of DNAPL Source Treatment: Experimental and Modeling Assessment of the Benefits of Partial DNAPL Source Removal

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-09-01

nuclear industry for conducting performance assessment calculations. The analytical FORTRAN code for the DNAPL source function, REMChlor, was...project. The first was to apply existing deterministic codes , such as T2VOC and UTCHEM, to the DNAPL source zone to simulate the remediation processes...but describe the spatial variability of source zones unlike one-dimensional flow and transport codes that assume homogeneity. The Lagrangian models
Tsunamigenic scenarios for southern Peru and northern Chile seismic gap: Deterministic and probabilistic hybrid approach for hazard assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Carrasco, J. F.; Gonzalez, G.; Aránguiz, R.; Yanez, G. A.; Melgar, D.; Salazar, P.; Shrivastava, M. N.; Das, R.; Catalan, P. A.; Cienfuegos, R.

2017-12-01

Plausible worst-case tsunamigenic scenarios definition plays a relevant role in tsunami hazard assessment focused in emergency preparedness and evacuation planning for coastal communities. During the last decade, the occurrence of major and moderate tsunamigenic earthquakes along worldwide subduction zones has given clues about critical parameters involved in near-field tsunami inundation processes, i.e. slip spatial distribution, shelf resonance of edge waves and local geomorphology effects. To analyze the effects of these seismic and hydrodynamic variables over the epistemic uncertainty of coastal inundation, we implement a combined methodology using deterministic and probabilistic approaches to construct 420 tsunamigenic scenarios in a mature seismic gap of southern Peru and northern Chile, extended from 17ºS to 24ºS. The deterministic scenarios are calculated using a regional distribution of trench-parallel gravity anomaly (TPGA) and trench-parallel topography anomaly (TPTA), three-dimensional Slab 1.0 worldwide subduction zones geometry model and published interseismic coupling (ISC) distributions. As result, we find four higher slip deficit zones interpreted as major seismic asperities of the gap, used in a hierarchical tree scheme to generate ten tsunamigenic scenarios with seismic magnitudes fluctuates between Mw 8.4 to Mw 8.9. Additionally, we construct ten homogeneous slip scenarios as inundation baseline. For the probabilistic approach, we implement a Karhunen - Loève expansion to generate 400 stochastic tsunamigenic scenarios over the maximum extension of the gap, with the same magnitude range of the deterministic sources. All the scenarios are simulated through a non-hydrostatic tsunami model Neowave 2D, using a classical nesting scheme, for five coastal major cities in northern Chile (Arica, Iquique, Tocopilla, Mejillones and Antofagasta) obtaining high resolution data of inundation depth, runup, coastal currents and sea level elevation. The probabilistic kinematic tsunamigenic scenarios give a more realistic slip patterns, similar to maximum slip amount of major past earthquakes. For all studied sites, the peak of slip location and shelf resonance is a first order control for the observed coastal inundation depths results.
The relationship between stochastic and deterministic quasi-steady state approximations.

PubMed

Kim, Jae Kyoung; Josić, Krešimir; Bennett, Matthew R

2015-11-23

The quasi steady-state approximation (QSSA) is frequently used to reduce deterministic models of biochemical networks. The resulting equations provide a simplified description of the network in terms of non-elementary reaction functions (e.g. Hill functions). Such deterministic reductions are frequently a basis for heuristic stochastic models in which non-elementary reaction functions are used to define reaction propensities. Despite their popularity, it remains unclear when such stochastic reductions are valid. It is frequently assumed that the stochastic reduction can be trusted whenever its deterministic counterpart is accurate. However, a number of recent examples show that this is not necessarily the case. Here we explain the origin of these discrepancies, and demonstrate a clear relationship between the accuracy of the deterministic and the stochastic QSSA for examples widely used in biological systems. With an analysis of a two-state promoter model, and numerical simulations for a variety of other models, we find that the stochastic QSSA is accurate whenever its deterministic counterpart provides an accurate approximation over a range of initial conditions which cover the likely fluctuations from the quasi steady-state (QSS). We conjecture that this relationship provides a simple and computationally inexpensive way to test the accuracy of reduced stochastic models using deterministic simulations. The stochastic QSSA is one of the most popular multi-scale stochastic simulation methods. While the use of QSSA, and the resulting non-elementary functions has been justified in the deterministic case, it is not clear when their stochastic counterparts are accurate. In this study, we show how the accuracy of the stochastic QSSA can be tested using their deterministic counterparts providing a concrete method to test when non-elementary rate functions can be used in stochastic simulations.
Deterministic Walks with Choice

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beeler, Katy E.; Berenhaut, Kenneth S.; Cooper, Joshua N.

2014-01-10

This paper studies deterministic movement over toroidal grids, integrating local information, bounded memory and choice at individual nodes. The research is motivated by recent work on deterministic random walks, and applications in multi-agent systems. Several results regarding passing tokens through toroidal grids are discussed, as well as some open questions.
Deterministic separation of cancer cells from blood at 10 mL/min

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loutherback, Kevin; D'Silva, Joseph; Liu, Liyu; Wu, Amy; Austin, Robert H.; Sturm, James C.

2012-12-01

Circulating tumor cells (CTCs) and circulating clusters of cancer and stromal cells have been identified in the blood of patients with malignant cancer and can be used as a diagnostic for disease severity, assess the efficacy of different treatment strategies and possibly determine the eventual location of metastatic invasions for possible treatment. There is thus a critical need to isolate, propagate and characterize viable CTCs and clusters of cancer cells with their associated stroma cells. Here, we present a microfluidic device for mL/min flow rate, continuous-flow capture of viable CTCs from blood using deterministic lateral displacement (DLD) arrays. We show here that a DLD array device can isolate CTCs from blood with capture efficiency greater than 85% CTCs at volumetric flow rates of up to 10 mL/min with no effect on cell viability.
Nanotransfer and nanoreplication using deterministically grown sacrificial nanotemplates

DOEpatents

Melechko, Anatoli V [Oak Ridge, TN; McKnight, Timothy E. , Guillorn, Michael A.; Ilic, Bojan [Ithaca, NY; Merkulov, Vladimir I [Knoxville, TN; Doktycz, Mitchel J [Knoxville, TN; Lowndes, Douglas H [Knoxville, TN; Simpson, Michael L [Knoxville, TN

2011-05-17

Methods, manufactures, machines and compositions are described for nanotransfer and nanoreplication using deterministically grown sacrificial nanotemplates. A method includes depositing a catalyst particle on a surface of a substrate to define a deterministically located position; growing an aligned elongated nanostructure on the substrate, an end of the aligned elongated nanostructure coupled to the substrate at the deterministically located position; coating the aligned elongated nanostructure with a conduit material; removing a portion of the conduit material to expose the catalyst particle; removing the catalyst particle; and removing the elongated nanostructure to define a nanoconduit.
Human brain detects short-time nonlinear predictability in the temporal fine structure of deterministic chaotic sounds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Itoh, Kosuke; Nakada, Tsutomu

2013-04-01

Deterministic nonlinear dynamical processes are ubiquitous in nature. Chaotic sounds generated by such processes may appear irregular and random in waveform, but these sounds are mathematically distinguished from random stochastic sounds in that they contain deterministic short-time predictability in their temporal fine structures. We show that the human brain distinguishes deterministic chaotic sounds from spectrally matched stochastic sounds in neural processing and perception. Deterministic chaotic sounds, even without being attended to, elicited greater cerebral cortical responses than the surrogate control sounds after about 150 ms in latency after sound onset. Listeners also clearly discriminated these sounds in perception. The results support the hypothesis that the human auditory system is sensitive to the subtle short-time predictability embedded in the temporal fine structure of sounds.
A deterministic particle method for one-dimensional reaction-diffusion equations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mascagni, Michael

1995-01-01

We derive a deterministic particle method for the solution of nonlinear reaction-diffusion equations in one spatial dimension. This deterministic method is an analog of a Monte Carlo method for the solution of these problems that has been previously investigated by the author. The deterministic method leads to the consideration of a system of ordinary differential equations for the positions of suitably defined particles. We then consider the time explicit and implicit methods for this system of ordinary differential equations and we study a Picard and Newton iteration for the solution of the implicit system. Next we solve numerically this system and study the discretization error both analytically and numerically. Numerical computation shows that this deterministic method is automatically adaptive to large gradients in the solution.
An integrated approach coupling physically based models and probabilistic method to assess quantitatively landslide susceptibility at different scale: application to different geomorphological environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vandromme, Rosalie; Thiéry, Yannick; Sedan, Olivier; Bernardie, Séverine

2016-04-01

Landslide hazard assessment is the estimation of a target area where landslides of a particular type, volume, runout and intensity may occur within a given period. The first step to analyze landslide hazard consists in assessing the spatial and temporal failure probability (when the information is available, i.e. susceptibility assessment). Two types of approach are generally recommended to achieve this goal: (i) qualitative approach (i.e. inventory based methods and knowledge data driven methods) and (ii) quantitative approach (i.e. data-driven methods or deterministic physically based methods). Among quantitative approaches, deterministic physically based methods (PBM) are generally used at local and/or site-specific scales (1:5,000-1:25,000 and >1:5,000, respectively). The main advantage of these methods is the calculation of probability of failure (safety factor) following some specific environmental conditions. For some models it is possible to integrate the land-uses and climatic change. At the opposite, major drawbacks are the large amounts of reliable and detailed data (especially materials type, their thickness and the geotechnical parameters heterogeneity over a large area) and the fact that only shallow landslides are taking into account. This is why they are often used at site-specific scales (> 1:5,000). Thus, to take into account (i) materials' heterogeneity , (ii) spatial variation of physical parameters, (iii) different landslide types, the French Geological Survey (i.e. BRGM) has developed a physically based model (PBM) implemented in a GIS environment. This PBM couples a global hydrological model (GARDENIA®) including a transient unsaturated/saturated hydrological component with a physically based model computing the stability of slopes (ALICE®, Assessment of Landslides Induced by Climatic Events) based on the Morgenstern-Price method for any slip surface. The variability of mechanical parameters is handled by Monte Carlo approach. The probability to obtain a safety factor below 1 represents the probability of occurrence of a landslide for a given triggering event. The dispersion of the distribution gives the uncertainty of the result. Finally, a map is created, displaying a probability of occurrence for each computing cell of the studied area. In order to take into account the land-uses change, a complementary module integrating the vegetation effects on soil properties has been recently developed. Last years, the model has been applied at different scales for different geomorphological environments: (i) at regional scale (1:50,000-1:25,000) in French West Indies and French Polynesian islands (ii) at local scale (i.e.1:10,000) for two complex mountainous areas; (iii) at the site-specific scale (1:2,000) for one landslide. For each study the 3D geotechnical model has been adapted. The different studies have allowed : (i) to discuss the different factors included in the model especially the initial 3D geotechnical models; (ii) to precise the location of probable failure following different hydrological scenarii; (iii) to test the effects of climatic change and land-use on slopes for two cases. In that way, future changes in temperature, precipitation and vegetation cover can be analyzed, permitting to address the impacts of global change on landslides. Finally, results show that it is possible to obtain reliable information about future slope failures at different scale of work for different scenarii with an integrated approach. The final information about landslide susceptibility (i.e. probability of failure) can be integrated in landslide hazard assessment and could be an essential information source for future land planning. As it has been performed in the ANR Project SAMCO (Society Adaptation for coping with Mountain risks in a global change COntext), this analysis constitutes a first step in the chain for risk assessment for different climate and economical development scenarios, to evaluate the resilience of mountainous areas.
Estimating predictive hydrological uncertainty by dressing deterministic and ensemble forecasts; a comparison, with application to Meuse and Rhine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verkade, J. S.; Brown, J. D.; Davids, F.; Reggiani, P.; Weerts, A. H.

2017-12-01

Two statistical post-processing approaches for estimation of predictive hydrological uncertainty are compared: (i) 'dressing' of a deterministic forecast by adding a single, combined estimate of both hydrological and meteorological uncertainty and (ii) 'dressing' of an ensemble streamflow forecast by adding an estimate of hydrological uncertainty to each individual streamflow ensemble member. Both approaches aim to produce an estimate of the 'total uncertainty' that captures both the meteorological and hydrological uncertainties. They differ in the degree to which they make use of statistical post-processing techniques. In the 'lumped' approach, both sources of uncertainty are lumped by post-processing deterministic forecasts using their verifying observations. In the 'source-specific' approach, the meteorological uncertainties are estimated by an ensemble of weather forecasts. These ensemble members are routed through a hydrological model and a realization of the probability distribution of hydrological uncertainties (only) is then added to each ensemble member to arrive at an estimate of the total uncertainty. The techniques are applied to one location in the Meuse basin and three locations in the Rhine basin. Resulting forecasts are assessed for their reliability and sharpness, as well as compared in terms of multiple verification scores including the relative mean error, Brier Skill Score, Mean Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score, Relative Operating Characteristic Score and Relative Economic Value. The dressed deterministic forecasts are generally more reliable than the dressed ensemble forecasts, but the latter are sharper. On balance, however, they show similar quality across a range of verification metrics, with the dressed ensembles coming out slightly better. Some additional analyses are suggested. Notably, these include statistical post-processing of the meteorological forecasts in order to increase their reliability, thus increasing the reliability of the streamflow forecasts produced with ensemble meteorological forcings.
Ensemble assimilation of ARGO temperature profile, sea surface temperature and Altimetric satellite data into an eddy permitting primitive equation model of the North Atlantic ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Yajing; Barth, Alexander; Beckers, Jean-Marie; Candille, Guillem; Brankart, Jean-Michel; Brasseur, Pierre

2015-04-01

Sea surface height, sea surface temperature and temperature profiles at depth collected between January and December 2005 are assimilated into a realistic eddy permitting primitive equation model of the North Atlantic Ocean using the Ensemble Kalman Filter. 60 ensemble members are generated by adding realistic noise to the forcing parameters related to the temperature. The ensemble is diagnosed and validated by comparison between the ensemble spread and the model/observation difference, as well as by rank histogram before the assimilation experiments. Incremental analysis update scheme is applied in order to reduce spurious oscillations due to the model state correction. The results of the assimilation are assessed according to both deterministic and probabilistic metrics with observations used in the assimilation experiments and independent observations, which goes further than most previous studies and constitutes one of the original points of this paper. Regarding the deterministic validation, the ensemble means, together with the ensemble spreads are compared to the observations in order to diagnose the ensemble distribution properties in a deterministic way. Regarding the probabilistic validation, the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) is used to evaluate the ensemble forecast system according to reliability and resolution. The reliability is further decomposed into bias and dispersion by the reduced centred random variable (RCRV) score in order to investigate the reliability properties of the ensemble forecast system. The improvement of the assimilation is demonstrated using these validation metrics. Finally, the deterministic validation and the probabilistic validation are analysed jointly. The consistency and complementarity between both validations are highlighted. High reliable situations, in which the RMS error and the CRPS give the same information, are identified for the first time in this paper.
Patients' understanding of and responses to multiplex genetic susceptibility test results.

PubMed

Kaphingst, Kimberly A; McBride, Colleen M; Wade, Christopher; Alford, Sharon Hensley; Reid, Robert; Larson, Eric; Baxevanis, Andreas D; Brody, Lawrence C

2012-07-01

Examination of patients' responses to direct-to-consumer genetic susceptibility tests is needed to inform clinical practice. This study examined patients' recall and interpretation of, and responses to, genetic susceptibility test results provided directly by mail. This observational study had three prospective assessments (before testing, 10 days after receiving results, and 3 months later). Participants were 199 patients aged 25-40 years who received free genetic susceptibility testing for eight common health conditions. More than 80% of the patients correctly recalled their results for the eight health conditions. Patients were unlikely to interpret genetic results as deterministic of health outcomes (mean = 6.0, s.d. = 0.8 on a scale of 1-7, 1 indicating strongly deterministic). In multivariate analysis, patients with the least deterministic interpretations were white (P = 0.0098), more educated (P = 0.0093), and least confused by results (P = 0.001). Only 1% talked about their results with a provider. Findings suggest that most patients will correctly recall their results and will not interpret genetics as the sole cause of diseases. The subset of those confused by results could benefit from consultation with a health-care provider, which could emphasize that health habits currently are the best predictors of risk. Providers could leverage patients' interest in genetic tests to encourage behavior changes to reduce disease risk.
Using MCBEND for neutron or gamma-ray deterministic calculations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geoff, Dobson; Adam, Bird; Brendan, Tollit; Paul, Smith

2017-09-01

MCBEND 11 is the latest version of the general radiation transport Monte Carlo code from AMEC Foster Wheeler's ANSWERS® Software Service. MCBEND is well established in the UK shielding community for radiation shielding and dosimetry assessments. MCBEND supports a number of acceleration techniques, for example the use of an importance map in conjunction with Splitting/Russian Roulette. MCBEND has a well established automated tool to generate this importance map, commonly referred to as the MAGIC module using a diffusion adjoint solution. This method is fully integrated with the MCBEND geometry and material specification, and can easily be run as part of a normal MCBEND calculation. An often overlooked feature of MCBEND is the ability to use this method for forward scoping calculations, which can be run as a very quick deterministic method. Additionally, the development of the Visual Workshop environment for results display provides new capabilities for the use of the forward calculation as a productivity tool. In this paper, we illustrate the use of the combination of the old and new in order to provide an enhanced analysis capability. We also explore the use of more advanced deterministic methods for scoping calculations used in conjunction with MCBEND, with a view to providing a suite of methods to accompany the main Monte Carlo solver.
Modeling of Electrical Cable Failure in a Dynamic Assessment of Fire Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bucknor, Matthew D.

Fires at a nuclear power plant are a safety concern because of their potential to defeat the redundant safety features that provide a high level of assurance of the ability to safely shutdown the plant. One of the added complexities of providing protection against fires is the need to determine the likelihood of electrical cable failure which can lead to the loss of the ability to control or spurious actuation of equipment that is required for safe shutdown. A number of plants are now transitioning from their deterministic fire protection programs to a risk-informed, performance based fire protection program according to the requirements of National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) 805. Within a risk-informed framework, credit can be taken for the analysis of fire progression within a fire zone that was not permissible within the deterministic framework of a 10 CFR 50.48 Appendix R safe shutdown analysis. To perform the analyses required for the transition, plants need to be able to demonstrate with some level of assurance that cables related to safe shutdown equipment will not be compromised during postulated fire scenarios. This research contains the development of new cable failure models that have the potential to more accurately predict electrical cable failure in common cable bundle configurations. Methods to determine the thermal properties of the new models from empirical data are presented along with comparisons between the new models and existing techniques used in the nuclear industry today. A Dynamic Event Tree (DET) methodology is also presented which allows for the proper treatment of uncertainties associated with fire brigade intervention and its effects on cable failure analysis. Finally a shielding analysis is performed to determine the effects on the temperature response of a cable bundle that is shielded from a fire source by an intervening object such as another cable tray. The results from the analyses demonstrate that models of similar complexity to existing cable failure techniques and tuned to empirical data can better approximate the temperature response of a cables located in tightly packed cable bundles. The new models also provide a way to determine the conditions insides a cable bundle which allows for separate treatment of cables on the interior of the bundle from cables on the exterior of the bundle. The results from the DET analysis show that the overall assessed probability of cable failure can be significantly reduced by more realistically accounting for the influence that the fire brigade has on a fire progression scenario. The shielding analysis results demonstrate a significant reduction in the temperature response of a shielded versus a non-shielded cable bundle; however the computational cost of using a fire progression model that can capture these effects may be prohibitive for performing DET analyses with currently available computational fluid dynamics models and computational resources.
Estimate Tsunami Flow Conditions and Large-Debris Tracks for the Design of Coastal Infrastructures along Coastlines of the U.S. Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Y.; Thomas, S.; Zhou, H.; Arcas, D.; Titov, V. V.

2017-12-01

The increasing potential tsunami hazards pose great challenges for infrastructures along the coastlines of the U.S. Pacific Northwest. Tsunami impact at a coastal site is usually assessed from deterministic scenarios based on 10,000 years of geological records in the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ). Aside from these deterministic methods, the new ASCE 7-16 tsunami provisions provide engineering design criteria of tsunami loads on buildings based on a probabilistic approach. This work develops a site-specific model near Newport, OR using high-resolution grids, and compute tsunami inundation depth and velocities at the study site resulted from credible probabilistic and deterministic earthquake sources in the Cascadia Subduction Zone. Three Cascadia scenarios, two deterministic scenarios, XXL1 and L1, and a 2,500-yr probabilistic scenario compliant with the new ASCE 7-16 standard, are simulated using combination of a depth-averaged shallow water model for offshore propagation and a Boussinesq-type model for onshore inundation. We speculate on the methods and procedure to obtain the 2,500-year probabilistic scenario for Newport that is compliant with the ASCE 7-16 tsunami provisions. We provide details of model results, particularly the inundation depth and flow speed for a new building, which will also be designated as a tsunami vertical evacuation shelter, at Newport, Oregon. We show that the ASCE 7-16 consistent hazards are between those obtained from deterministic L1 and XXL1 scenarios, and the greatest impact on the building may come from later waves. As a further step, we utilize the inundation model results to numerically compute tracks of large vessels in the vicinity of the building site and estimate if these vessels will impact on the building site during the extreme XXL1 and ASCE 7-16 hazard-consistent scenarios. Two-step study is carried out first to study tracks of massless particles and then large vessels with assigned mass considering drag force, inertial force, ship grounding and mooring. The simulation results show that none of the large vessels will impact on the building site in all tested scenarios.
Modeling Uncertainties in EEG Microstates: Analysis of Real and Imagined Motor Movements Using Probabilistic Clustering-Driven Training of Probabilistic Neural Networks.

PubMed

Dinov, Martin; Leech, Robert

2017-01-01

Part of the process of EEG microstate estimation involves clustering EEG channel data at the global field power (GFP) maxima, very commonly using a modified K-means approach. Clustering has also been done deterministically, despite there being uncertainties in multiple stages of the microstate analysis, including the GFP peak definition, the clustering itself and in the post-clustering assignment of microstates back onto the EEG timecourse of interest. We perform a fully probabilistic microstate clustering and labeling, to account for these sources of uncertainty using the closest probabilistic analog to KM called Fuzzy C-means (FCM). We train softmax multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs) using the KM and FCM-inferred cluster assignments as target labels, to then allow for probabilistic labeling of the full EEG data instead of the usual correlation-based deterministic microstate label assignment typically used. We assess the merits of the probabilistic analysis vs. the deterministic approaches in EEG data recorded while participants perform real or imagined motor movements from a publicly available data set of 109 subjects. Though FCM group template maps that are almost topographically identical to KM were found, there is considerable uncertainty in the subsequent assignment of microstate labels. In general, imagined motor movements are less predictable on a time point-by-time point basis, possibly reflecting the more exploratory nature of the brain state during imagined, compared to during real motor movements. We find that some relationships may be more evident using FCM than using KM and propose that future microstate analysis should preferably be performed probabilistically rather than deterministically, especially in situations such as with brain computer interfaces, where both training and applying models of microstates need to account for uncertainty. Probabilistic neural network-driven microstate assignment has a number of advantages that we have discussed, which are likely to be further developed and exploited in future studies. In conclusion, probabilistic clustering and a probabilistic neural network-driven approach to microstate analysis is likely to better model and reveal details and the variability hidden in current deterministic and binarized microstate assignment and analyses.
Modeling Uncertainties in EEG Microstates: Analysis of Real and Imagined Motor Movements Using Probabilistic Clustering-Driven Training of Probabilistic Neural Networks

PubMed Central

Dinov, Martin; Leech, Robert

2017-01-01

Part of the process of EEG microstate estimation involves clustering EEG channel data at the global field power (GFP) maxima, very commonly using a modified K-means approach. Clustering has also been done deterministically, despite there being uncertainties in multiple stages of the microstate analysis, including the GFP peak definition, the clustering itself and in the post-clustering assignment of microstates back onto the EEG timecourse of interest. We perform a fully probabilistic microstate clustering and labeling, to account for these sources of uncertainty using the closest probabilistic analog to KM called Fuzzy C-means (FCM). We train softmax multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs) using the KM and FCM-inferred cluster assignments as target labels, to then allow for probabilistic labeling of the full EEG data instead of the usual correlation-based deterministic microstate label assignment typically used. We assess the merits of the probabilistic analysis vs. the deterministic approaches in EEG data recorded while participants perform real or imagined motor movements from a publicly available data set of 109 subjects. Though FCM group template maps that are almost topographically identical to KM were found, there is considerable uncertainty in the subsequent assignment of microstate labels. In general, imagined motor movements are less predictable on a time point-by-time point basis, possibly reflecting the more exploratory nature of the brain state during imagined, compared to during real motor movements. We find that some relationships may be more evident using FCM than using KM and propose that future microstate analysis should preferably be performed probabilistically rather than deterministically, especially in situations such as with brain computer interfaces, where both training and applying models of microstates need to account for uncertainty. Probabilistic neural network-driven microstate assignment has a number of advantages that we have discussed, which are likely to be further developed and exploited in future studies. In conclusion, probabilistic clustering and a probabilistic neural network-driven approach to microstate analysis is likely to better model and reveal details and the variability hidden in current deterministic and binarized microstate assignment and analyses. PMID:29163110
Deterministic and Stochastic Analysis of a Prey-Dependent Predator-Prey System

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Maiti, Alakes; Samanta, G. P.

2005-01-01

This paper reports on studies of the deterministic and stochastic behaviours of a predator-prey system with prey-dependent response function. The first part of the paper deals with the deterministic analysis of uniform boundedness, permanence, stability and bifurcation. In the second part the reproductive and mortality factors of the prey and…

ShinyGPAS: interactive genomic prediction accuracy simulator based on deterministic formulas.

PubMed

Morota, Gota

2017-12-20

Deterministic formulas for the accuracy of genomic predictions highlight the relationships among prediction accuracy and potential factors influencing prediction accuracy prior to performing computationally intensive cross-validation. Visualizing such deterministic formulas in an interactive manner may lead to a better understanding of how genetic factors control prediction accuracy. The software to simulate deterministic formulas for genomic prediction accuracy was implemented in R and encapsulated as a web-based Shiny application. Shiny genomic prediction accuracy simulator (ShinyGPAS) simulates various deterministic formulas and delivers dynamic scatter plots of prediction accuracy versus genetic factors impacting prediction accuracy, while requiring only mouse navigation in a web browser. ShinyGPAS is available at: https://chikudaisei.shinyapps.io/shinygpas/ . ShinyGPAS is a shiny-based interactive genomic prediction accuracy simulator using deterministic formulas. It can be used for interactively exploring potential factors that influence prediction accuracy in genome-enabled prediction, simulating achievable prediction accuracy prior to genotyping individuals, or supporting in-class teaching. ShinyGPAS is open source software and it is hosted online as a freely available web-based resource with an intuitive graphical user interface.
Peak Dose Assessment for Proposed DOE-PPPO Authorized Limits

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Maldonado, Delis

2012-06-01

The Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE), a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) prime contractor, was contracted by the DOE Portsmouth/Paducah Project Office (DOE-PPPO) to conduct a peak dose assessment in support of the Authorized Limits Request for Solid Waste Disposal at Landfill C-746-U at the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant (DOE-PPPO 2011a). The peak doses were calculated based on the DOE-PPPO Proposed Single Radionuclides Soil Guidelines and the DOE-PPPO Proposed Authorized Limits (AL) Volumetric Concentrations available in DOE-PPPO 2011a. This work is provided as an appendix to the Dose Modeling Evaluations and Technical Support Document for the Authorizedmore » Limits Request for the C-746-U Landfill at the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant, Paducah, Kentucky (ORISE 2012). The receptors evaluated in ORISE 2012 were selected by the DOE-PPPO for the additional peak dose evaluations. These receptors included a Landfill Worker, Trespasser, Resident Farmer (onsite), Resident Gardener, Recreational User, Outdoor Worker and an Offsite Resident Farmer. The RESRAD (Version 6.5) and RESRAD-OFFSITE (Version 2.5) computer codes were used for the peak dose assessments. Deterministic peak dose assessments were performed for all the receptors and a probabilistic dose assessment was performed only for the Offsite Resident Farmer at the request of the DOE-PPPO. In a deterministic analysis, a single input value results in a single output value. In other words, a deterministic analysis uses single parameter values for every variable in the code. By contrast, a probabilistic approach assigns parameter ranges to certain variables, and the code randomly selects the values for each variable from the parameter range each time it calculates the dose (NRC 2006). The receptor scenarios, computer codes and parameter input files were previously used in ORISE 2012. A few modifications were made to the parameter input files as appropriate for this effort. Some of these changes included increasing the time horizon beyond 1,050 years (yr), and using the radionuclide concentrations provided by the DOE-PPPO as inputs into the codes. The deterministic peak doses were evaluated within time horizons of 70 yr (for the Landfill Worker and Trespasser), 1,050 yr, 10,000 yr and 100,000 yr (for the Resident Farmer [onsite], Resident Gardener, Recreational User, Outdoor Worker and Offsite Resident Farmer) at the request of the DOE-PPPO. The time horizons of 10,000 yr and 100,000 yr were used at the request of the DOE-PPPO for informational purposes only. The probabilistic peak of the mean dose assessment was performed for the Offsite Resident Farmer using Technetium-99 (Tc-99) and a time horizon of 1,050 yr. The results of the deterministic analyses indicate that among all receptors and time horizons evaluated, the highest projected dose, 2,700 mrem/yr, occurred for the Resident Farmer (onsite) at 12,773 yr. The exposure pathways contributing to the peak dose are ingestion of plants, external gamma, and ingestion of milk, meat and soil. However, this receptor is considered an implausible receptor. The only receptors considered plausible are the Landfill Worker, Recreational User, Outdoor Worker and the Offsite Resident Farmer. The maximum projected dose among the plausible receptors is 220 mrem/yr for the Outdoor Worker and it occurs at 19,045 yr. The exposure pathways contributing to the dose for this receptor are external gamma and soil ingestion. The results of the probabilistic peak of the mean dose analysis for the Offsite Resident Farmer indicate that the average (arithmetic mean) of the peak of the mean doses for this receptor is 0.98 mrem/yr and it occurs at 1,050 yr. This dose corresponds to Tc-99 within the time horizon of 1,050 yr.« less
NASA-STD-7009 Guidance Document for Human Health and Performance Models and Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walton, Marlei; Mulugeta, Lealem; Nelson, Emily S.; Myers, Jerry G.

2014-01-01

Rigorous verification, validation, and credibility (VVC) processes are imperative to ensure that models and simulations (MS) are sufficiently reliable to address issues within their intended scope. The NASA standard for MS, NASA-STD-7009 (7009) [1] was a resultant outcome of the Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB) to ensure MS are developed, applied, and interpreted appropriately for making decisions that may impact crew or mission safety. Because the 7009 focus is engineering systems, a NASA-STD-7009 Guidance Document is being developed to augment the 7009 and provide information, tools, and techniques applicable to the probabilistic and deterministic biological MS more prevalent in human health and performance (HHP) and space biomedical research and operations.
360° deterministic magnetization rotation in a three-ellipse magnetoelectric heterostructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kundu, Auni A.; Chavez, Andres C.; Keller, Scott M.; Carman, Gregory P.; Lynch, Christopher S.

2018-03-01

A magnetic dipole-coupled magnetoelectric heterostructure comprised of three closely spaced ellipse shapes was designed and shown to be capable of achieving deterministic in-plane magnetization rotation. The design approach used a combination of conventional micromagnetic simulations to obtain preliminary configurations followed by simulations using a fully strain-coupled, time domain micromagnetic code for a detailed assessment of performance. The conventional micromagnetic code has short run times and was used to refine the ellipse shape and orientation, but it does not accurately capture the effects of the strain gradients present in the piezoelectric and magnetostrictive layers that contribute to magnetization reorientation. The fully coupled code was used to assess the effects of strain and magnetic field gradients on precessional switching in the side ellipses and on the resulting dipole-field driven magnetization reorientation in the center ellipse. The work led to a geometry with a CoFeB ellipse (125 nm × 95 nm × 4 nm) positioned between two smaller CoFeB ellipses (75 nm × 50 nm × 4 nm) on a 500 nm PZT-5H film substrate clamped at its bottom surface. The smaller ellipses were oriented at 45° and positioned at 70° and 250° about the central ellipse due to the film deposition on a thick substrate. A 7.3 V pulse applied to the PZT for 0.22 ns produced 180° switching of the magnetization in the outer ellipses that then drove switching in the center ellipse through dipole-dipole coupling. Full 360° deterministic rotation was achieved with a second pulse. The temporal response of the resulting design is discussed.
A reliable simultaneous representation of seismic hazard and of ground shaking recurrence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peresan, A.; Panza, G. F.; Magrin, A.; Vaccari, F.

2015-12-01

Different earthquake hazard maps may be appropriate for different purposes - such as emergency management, insurance and engineering design. Accounting for the lower occurrence rate of larger sporadic earthquakes may allow to formulate cost-effective policies in some specific applications, provided that statistically sound recurrence estimates are used, which is not typically the case of PSHA (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment). We illustrate the procedure to associate the expected ground motions from Neo-deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) to an estimate of their recurrence. Neo-deterministic refers to a scenario-based approach, which allows for the construction of a broad range of earthquake scenarios via full waveforms modeling. From the synthetic seismograms the estimates of peak ground acceleration, velocity and displacement, or any other parameter relevant to seismic engineering, can be extracted. NDSHA, in its standard form, defines the hazard computed from a wide set of scenario earthquakes (including the largest deterministically or historically defined credible earthquake, MCE) and it does not supply the frequency of occurrence of the expected ground shaking. A recent enhanced variant of NDSHA that reliably accounts for recurrence has been developed and it is applied to the Italian territory. The characterization of the frequency-magnitude relation can be performed by any statistically sound method supported by data (e.g. multi-scale seismicity model), so that a recurrence estimate is associated to each of the pertinent sources. In this way a standard NDSHA map of ground shaking is obtained simultaneously with the map of the corresponding recurrences. The introduction of recurrence estimates in NDSHA naturally allows for the generation of ground shaking maps at specified return periods. This permits a straightforward comparison between NDSHA and PSHA maps.
Neo-deterministic seismic hazard scenarios for India—a preventive tool for disaster mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parvez, Imtiyaz A.; Magrin, Andrea; Vaccari, Franco; Ashish; Mir, Ramees R.; Peresan, Antonella; Panza, Giuliano Francesco

2017-11-01

Current computational resources and physical knowledge of the seismic wave generation and propagation processes allow for reliable numerical and analytical models of waveform generation and propagation. From the simulation of ground motion, it is easy to extract the desired earthquake hazard parameters. Accordingly, a scenario-based approach to seismic hazard assessment has been developed, namely the neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment (NDSHA), which allows for a wide range of possible seismic sources to be used in the definition of reliable scenarios by means of realistic waveforms modelling. Such reliable and comprehensive characterization of expected earthquake ground motion is essential to improve building codes, particularly for the protection of critical infrastructures and for land use planning. Parvez et al. (Geophys J Int 155:489-508, 2003) published the first ever neo-deterministic seismic hazard map of India by computing synthetic seismograms with input data set consisting of structural models, seismogenic zones, focal mechanisms and earthquake catalogues. As described in Panza et al. (Adv Geophys 53:93-165, 2012), the NDSHA methodology evolved with respect to the original formulation used by Parvez et al. (Geophys J Int 155:489-508, 2003): the computer codes were improved to better fit the need of producing realistic ground shaking maps and ground shaking scenarios, at different scale levels, exploiting the most significant pertinent progresses in data acquisition and modelling. Accordingly, the present study supplies a revised NDSHA map for India. The seismic hazard, expressed in terms of maximum displacement (Dmax), maximum velocity (Vmax) and design ground acceleration (DGA), has been extracted from the synthetic signals and mapped on a regular grid over the studied territory.
An operational hydrological ensemble prediction system for the city of Zurich (Switzerland): assessing the added value of probabilistic forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Addor, N.; Jaun, S.; Fundel, F.; Zappa, M.

2012-04-01

The Sihl River flows through Zurich, Switzerland's most populated city, for which it represents the largest flood threat. To anticipate extreme discharge events and provide decision support in case of flood risk, a hydrometeorological ensemble prediction system (HEPS) was launched operationally in 2008. This model chain relies on deterministic (COSMO-7) and probabilistic (COSMO-LEPS) atmospheric forecasts, which are used to force a semi-distributed hydrological model (PREVAH) coupled to a hydraulic model (FLORIS). The resulting hydrological forecasts are eventually communicated to the stakeholders involved in the Sihl discharge management. This fully operational setting provides a real framework with which we assessed the potential of deterministic and probabilistic discharge forecasts for flood mitigation. To study the suitability of HEPS for small-scale basins and to quantify the added value conveyed by the probability information, a 31-month reforecast was produced for the Sihl catchment (336 km2). Several metrics support the conclusion that the performance gain is of up to 2 days lead time for the catchment considered. Brier skill scores show that probabilistic hydrological forecasts outperform their deterministic counterparts for all the lead times and event intensities considered. The small size of the Sihl catchment does not prevent skillful discharge forecasts, but makes them particularly dependent on correct precipitation forecasts. Our evaluation stresses that the capacity of the model to provide confident and reliable mid-term probability forecasts for high discharges is limited. We finally highlight challenges for making decisions on the basis of hydrological predictions, and discuss the need for a tool to be used in addition to forecasts to compare the different mitigation actions possible in the Sihl catchment.
Safety assessment of a shallow foundation using the random finite element method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaskórski, Łukasz; Puła, Wojciech

2015-04-01

A complex structure of soil and its random character are reasons why soil modeling is a cumbersome task. Heterogeneity of soil has to be considered even within a homogenous layer of soil. Therefore an estimation of shear strength parameters of soil for the purposes of a geotechnical analysis causes many problems. In applicable standards (Eurocode 7) there is not presented any explicit method of an evaluation of characteristic values of soil parameters. Only general guidelines can be found how these values should be estimated. Hence many approaches of an assessment of characteristic values of soil parameters are presented in literature and can be applied in practice. In this paper, the reliability assessment of a shallow strip footing was conducted using a reliability index β. Therefore some approaches of an estimation of characteristic values of soil properties were compared by evaluating values of reliability index β which can be achieved by applying each of them. Method of Orr and Breysse, Duncan's method, Schneider's method, Schneider's method concerning influence of fluctuation scales and method included in Eurocode 7 were examined. Design values of the bearing capacity based on these approaches were referred to the stochastic bearing capacity estimated by the random finite element method (RFEM). Design values of the bearing capacity were conducted for various widths and depths of a foundation in conjunction with design approaches DA defined in Eurocode. RFEM was presented by Griffiths and Fenton (1993). It combines deterministic finite element method, random field theory and Monte Carlo simulations. Random field theory allows to consider a random character of soil parameters within a homogenous layer of soil. For this purpose a soil property is considered as a separate random variable in every element of a mesh in the finite element method with proper correlation structure between points of given area. RFEM was applied to estimate which theoretical probability distribution fits the empirical probability distribution of bearing capacity basing on 3000 realizations. Assessed probability distribution was applied to compute design values of the bearing capacity and related reliability indices β. Conducted analysis were carried out for a cohesion soil. Hence a friction angle and a cohesion were defined as a random parameters and characterized by two dimensional random fields. A friction angle was described by a bounded distribution as it differs within limited range. While a lognormal distribution was applied in case of a cohesion. Other properties - Young's modulus, Poisson's ratio and unit weight were assumed as deterministic values because they have negligible influence on the stochastic bearing capacity. Griffiths D. V., & Fenton G. A. (1993). Seepage beneath water retaining structures founded on spatially random soil. Géotechnique, 43(6), 577-587.
Implicit Sequence Learning in Dyslexia: A Within-Sequence Comparison of First- and Higher-Order Information

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Du, Wenchong; Kelly, Steve W.

2013-01-01

The present study examines implicit sequence learning in adult dyslexics with a focus on comparing sequence transitions with different statistical complexities. Learning of a 12-item deterministic sequence was assessed in 12 dyslexic and 12 non-dyslexic university students. Both groups showed equivalent standard reaction time increments when the…
Refinement of the Arc-Habcap model to predict habitat effectiveness for elk

Treesearch

Lakhdar Benkobi; Mark A. Rumble; Gary C. Brundige; Joshua J. Millspaugh

2004-01-01

Wildlife habitat modeling is increasingly important for managers who need to assess the effects of land management activities. We evaluated the performance of a spatially explicit deterministic habitat model (Arc-Habcap) that predicts habitat effectiveness for elk. We used five years of radio-telemetry locations of elk from Custer State Park (CSP), South Dakota, to...
Assessing Potential Climate Change Effects on Loblolly Pine Growth: A Probabilistic Regional Modeling Approach

Treesearch

Peter B. Woodbury; James E. Smith; David A. Weinstein; John A. Laurence

1998-01-01

Most models of the potential effects of climate change on forest growth have produced deterministic predictions. However, there are large uncertainties in data on regional forest condition, estimates of future climate, and quantitative relationships between environmental conditions and forest growth rate. We constructed a new model to analyze these uncertainties...
Solving Autonomy Technology Gaps through Wireless Technology and Orion Avionics Architectural Principles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Black, Randy; Bai, Haowei; Michalicek, Andrew; Shelton, Blaine; Villela, Mark

2008-01-01

Currently, autonomy in space applications is limited by a variety of technology gaps. Innovative application of wireless technology and avionics architectural principles drawn from the Orion crew exploration vehicle provide solutions for several of these gaps. The Vision for Space Exploration envisions extensive use of autonomous systems. Economic realities preclude continuing the level of operator support currently required of autonomous systems in space. In order to decrease the number of operators, more autonomy must be afforded to automated systems. However, certification authorities have been notoriously reluctant to certify autonomous software in the presence of humans or when costly missions may be jeopardized. The Orion avionics architecture, drawn from advanced commercial aircraft avionics, is based upon several architectural principles including partitioning in software. Robust software partitioning provides "brick wall" separation between software applications executing on a single processor, along with controlled data movement between applications. Taking advantage of these attributes, non-deterministic applications can be placed in one partition and a "Safety" application created in a separate partition. This "Safety" partition can track the position of astronauts or critical equipment and prevent any unsafe command from executing. Only the Safety partition need be certified to a human rated level. As a proof-of-concept demonstration, Honeywell has teamed with the Ultra WideBand (UWB) Working Group at NASA Johnson Space Center to provide tracking of humans, autonomous systems, and critical equipment. Using UWB the NASA team can determine positioning to within less than one inch resolution, allowing a Safety partition to halt operation of autonomous systems in the event that an unplanned collision is imminent. Another challenge facing autonomous systems is the coordination of multiple autonomous agents. Current approaches address the issue as one of networking and coordination of multiple independent units, each with its own mission. As a proof-of-concept Honeywell is developing and testing various algorithms that lead to a deterministic, fault tolerant, reliable wireless backplane. Just as advanced avionics systems control several subsystems, actuators, sensors, displays, etc.; a single "master" autonomous agent (or base station computer) could control multiple autonomous systems. The problem is simplified to controlling a flexible body consisting of several sensors and actuators, rather than one of coordinating multiple independent units. By filling technology gaps associated with space based autonomous system, wireless technology and Orion architectural principles provide the means for decreasing operational costs and simplifying problems associated with collaboration of multiple autonomous systems.
Potential application of quantitative microbiological risk assessment techniques to an aseptic-UHT process in the food industry.

PubMed

Pujol, Laure; Albert, Isabelle; Johnson, Nicholas Brian; Membré, Jeanne-Marie

2013-04-01

Aseptic ultra-high-temperature (UHT)-type processed food products (e.g., milk or soup) are ready to eat products which are consumed extensively globally due to a combination of their comparative high quality and long shelf life, with no cold chain or other preservation requirements. Due to the inherent microbial vulnerability of aseptic-UHT product formulations, the safety and stability-related performance objectives (POs) required at the end of the manufacturing process are the most demanding found in the food industry. The key determinants to achieving sterility, and which also differentiates aseptic-UHT from in-pack sterilised products, are the challenges associated with the processes of aseptic filling and sealing. This is a complex process that has traditionally been run using deterministic or empirical process settings. Quantifying the risk of microbial contamination and recontamination along the aseptic-UHT process, using the scientifically based process quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), offers the possibility to improve on the currently tolerable sterility failure rate (i.e., 1 defect per 10,000 units). In addition, benefits of applying QMRA are (i) to implement process settings in a transparent and scientific manner; (ii) to develop a uniform common structure whatever the production line, leading to a harmonisation of these process settings, and; (iii) to bring elements of a cost-benefit analysis of the management measures. The objective of this article is to explore how QMRA techniques and risk management metrics may be applied to aseptic-UHT-type processed food products. In particular, the aseptic-UHT process should benefit from a number of novel mathematical and statistical concepts that have been developed in the field of QMRA. Probabilistic techniques such as Monte Carlo simulation, Bayesian inference and sensitivity analysis, should help in assessing the compliance with safety and stability-related POs set at the end of the manufacturing process. The understanding of aseptic-UHT process contamination will be extended beyond the current "as-low-as-reasonably-achievable" targets to a risk-based framework, through which current sterility performance and future process designs can be optimised. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Y M; Bush, K; Han, B

Purpose: Accurate and fast dose calculation is a prerequisite of precision radiation therapy in modern photon and particle therapy. While Monte Carlo (MC) dose calculation provides high dosimetric accuracy, the drastically increased computational time hinders its routine use. Deterministic dose calculation methods are fast, but problematic in the presence of tissue density inhomogeneity. We leverage the useful features of deterministic methods and MC to develop a hybrid dose calculation platform with autonomous utilization of MC and deterministic calculation depending on the local geometry, for optimal accuracy and speed. Methods: Our platform utilizes a Geant4 based “localized Monte Carlo” (LMC) methodmore » that isolates MC dose calculations only to volumes that have potential for dosimetric inaccuracy. In our approach, additional structures are created encompassing heterogeneous volumes. Deterministic methods calculate dose and energy fluence up to the volume surfaces, where the energy fluence distribution is sampled into discrete histories and transported using MC. Histories exiting the volume are converted back into energy fluence, and transported deterministically. By matching boundary conditions at both interfaces, deterministic dose calculation account for dose perturbations “downstream” of localized heterogeneities. Hybrid dose calculation was performed for water and anthropomorphic phantoms. Results: We achieved <1% agreement between deterministic and MC calculations in the water benchmark for photon and proton beams, and dose differences of 2%–15% could be observed in heterogeneous phantoms. The saving in computational time (a factor ∼4–7 compared to a full Monte Carlo dose calculation) was found to be approximately proportional to the volume of the heterogeneous region. Conclusion: Our hybrid dose calculation approach takes advantage of the computational efficiency of deterministic method and accuracy of MC, providing a practical tool for high performance dose calculation in modern RT. The approach is generalizable to all modalities where heterogeneities play a large role, notably particle therapy.« less
The past, present and future of cyber-physical systems: a focus on models.

PubMed

Lee, Edward A

2015-02-26

This paper is about better engineering of cyber-physical systems (CPSs) through better models. Deterministic models have historically proven extremely useful and arguably form the kingpin of the industrial revolution and the digital and information technology revolutions. Key deterministic models that have proven successful include differential equations, synchronous digital logic and single-threaded imperative programs. Cyber-physical systems, however, combine these models in such a way that determinism is not preserved. Two projects show that deterministic CPS models with faithful physical realizations are possible and practical. The first project is PRET, which shows that the timing precision of synchronous digital logic can be practically made available at the software level of abstraction. The second project is Ptides (programming temporally-integrated distributed embedded systems), which shows that deterministic models for distributed cyber-physical systems have practical faithful realizations. These projects are existence proofs that deterministic CPS models are possible and practical.
The Past, Present and Future of Cyber-Physical Systems: A Focus on Models

PubMed Central

Lee, Edward A.

2015-01-01

This paper is about better engineering of cyber-physical systems (CPSs) through better models. Deterministic models have historically proven extremely useful and arguably form the kingpin of the industrial revolution and the digital and information technology revolutions. Key deterministic models that have proven successful include differential equations, synchronous digital logic and single-threaded imperative programs. Cyber-physical systems, however, combine these models in such a way that determinism is not preserved. Two projects show that deterministic CPS models with faithful physical realizations are possible and practical. The first project is PRET, which shows that the timing precision of synchronous digital logic can be practically made available at the software level of abstraction. The second project is Ptides (programming temporally-integrated distributed embedded systems), which shows that deterministic models for distributed cyber-physical systems have practical faithful realizations. These projects are existence proofs that deterministic CPS models are possible and practical. PMID:25730486
Fuzzy linear model for production optimization of mining systems with multiple entities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vujic, Slobodan; Benovic, Tomo; Miljanovic, Igor; Hudej, Marjan; Milutinovic, Aleksandar; Pavlovic, Petar

2011-12-01

Planning and production optimization within multiple mines or several work sites (entities) mining systems by using fuzzy linear programming (LP) was studied. LP is the most commonly used operations research methods in mining engineering. After the introductory review of properties and limitations of applying LP, short reviews of the general settings of deterministic and fuzzy LP models are presented. With the purpose of comparative analysis, the application of both LP models is presented using the example of the Bauxite Basin Niksic with five mines. After the assessment, LP is an efficient mathematical modeling tool in production planning and solving many other single-criteria optimization problems of mining engineering. After the comparison of advantages and deficiencies of both deterministic and fuzzy LP models, the conclusion presents benefits of the fuzzy LP model but is also stating that seeking the optimal plan of production means to accomplish the overall analysis that will encompass the LP model approaches.
Probabilistic sensitivity analysis incorporating the bootstrap: an example comparing treatments for the eradication of Helicobacter pylori.

PubMed

Pasta, D J; Taylor, J L; Henning, J M

1999-01-01

Decision-analytic models are frequently used to evaluate the relative costs and benefits of alternative therapeutic strategies for health care. Various types of sensitivity analysis are used to evaluate the uncertainty inherent in the models. Although probabilistic sensitivity analysis is more difficult theoretically and computationally, the results can be much more powerful and useful than deterministic sensitivity analysis. The authors show how a Monte Carlo simulation can be implemented using standard software to perform a probabilistic sensitivity analysis incorporating the bootstrap. The method is applied to a decision-analytic model evaluating the cost-effectiveness of Helicobacter pylori eradication. The necessary steps are straightforward and are described in detail. The use of the bootstrap avoids certain difficulties encountered with theoretical distributions. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis provided insights into the decision-analytic model beyond the traditional base-case and deterministic sensitivity analyses and should become the standard method for assessing sensitivity.
Verification of screening level for decontamination implemented after Fukushima nuclear accident

PubMed Central

Ogino, Haruyuki; Ichiji, Takeshi; Hattori, Takatoshi

2012-01-01

The screening level for decontamination that has been applied for the surface of the human body and contaminated handled objects after the Fukushima nuclear accident was verified by assessing the doses that arise from external irradiation, ingestion, inhalation and skin contamination. The result shows that the annual effective dose that arises from handled objects contaminated with the screening level for decontamination (i.e. 100 000 counts per minute) is <1 mSv y−1, which can be considered as the intervention exemption level in accordance with the International Commission on Radiological Protection recommendations. Furthermore, the screening level is also found to protect the skin from the incidence of a deterministic effect because the absorbed dose of the skin that arises from direct deposition on the surface of the human body is calculated to be lower than the threshold of the deterministic effect assuming a practical exposure duration. PMID:22228683
Reliability-based design optimization using a generalized subset simulation method and posterior approximation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Yuan-Zhuo; Li, Hong-Shuang; Yao, Wei-Xing

2018-05-01

The evaluation of the probabilistic constraints in reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) problems has always been significant and challenging work, which strongly affects the performance of RBDO methods. This article deals with RBDO problems using a recently developed generalized subset simulation (GSS) method and a posterior approximation approach. The posterior approximation approach is used to transform all the probabilistic constraints into ordinary constraints as in deterministic optimization. The assessment of multiple failure probabilities required by the posterior approximation approach is achieved by GSS in a single run at all supporting points, which are selected by a proper experimental design scheme combining Sobol' sequences and Bucher's design. Sequentially, the transformed deterministic design optimization problem can be solved by optimization algorithms, for example, the sequential quadratic programming method. Three optimization problems are used to demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method.

Comparing different approaches - data mining, geostatistic, and deterministic pedology - to assess the frequency of WRB Reference Soil Groups in the Italian soil regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorenzetti, Romina; Barbetti, Roberto; L'Abate, Giovanni; Fantappiè, Maria; Costantini, Edoardo A. C.

2013-04-01

Estimating frequency of soil classes in map unit is always affected by some degree of uncertainty, especially at small scales, with a larger generalization. The aim of this study was to compare different possible approaches - data mining, geostatistic, deterministic pedology - to assess the frequency of WRB Reference Soil Groups (RSG) in the major Italian soil regions. In the soil map of Italy (Costantini et al., 2012), a list of the first five RSG was reported in each major 10 soil regions. The soil map was produced using the national soil geodatabase, which stored 22,015 analyzed and classified pedons, 1,413 soil typological unit (STU) and a set of auxiliary variables (lithology, land-use, DEM). Other variables were added, to better consider the influence of soil forming factors (slope, soil aridity index, carbon stock, soil inorganic carbon content, clay, sand, geography of soil regions and soil systems) and a grid at 1 km mesh was set up. The traditional deterministic pedology assessed the STU frequency according to the expert judgment presence in every elementary landscape which formed the mapping unit. Different data mining techniques were firstly compared in their ability to predict RSG through auxiliary variables (neural networks, random forests, boosted tree, supported vector machine (SVM)). We selected SVM according to the result of a testing set. A SVM model is a representation of the examples as points in space, mapped so that examples of separate categories are divided by a clear gap that is as wide as possible. The geostatistic algorithm we used was an indicator collocated cokriging. The class values of the auxiliary variables, available at all the points of the grid, were transformed in indicator variables (values 0, 1). A principal component analysis allowed us to select the variables that were able to explain the largest variability, and to correlate each RSG with the first principal component, which explained the 51% of the total variability. The principal component was used as collocated variable. The results were as many probability maps as the estimated WRB classes. They were summed up in a unique map, with the most probable class at each pixel. The first five more frequent RSG resulting from the three methods were compared. The outcomes were validated with a subset of the 10% of the pedons, kept out before the elaborations. The error estimate was produced for each estimated RSG. The first results, obtained in one of the most widespread soil region (plains and low hills of central and southern Italy) showed that the first two frequency classes were the same for all the three methods. The deterministic method differed from the others at the third position, while the statistical methods inverted the third and fourth position. An advantage of the SVM was the possibility to use in the same elaboration numeric and categorical variable, without any previous transformation, which reduced the processing time. A Bayesian validation indicated that the SVM method was as reliable as the indicator collocated cokriging, and better than the deterministic pedological approach.
Stability analysis of multi-group deterministic and stochastic epidemic models with vaccination rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhi-Gang; Gao, Rui-Mei; Fan, Xiao-Ming; Han, Qi-Xing

2014-09-01

We discuss in this paper a deterministic multi-group MSIR epidemic model with a vaccination rate, the basic reproduction number ℛ0, a key parameter in epidemiology, is a threshold which determines the persistence or extinction of the disease. By using Lyapunov function techniques, we show if ℛ0 is greater than 1 and the deterministic model obeys some conditions, then the disease will prevail, the infective persists and the endemic state is asymptotically stable in a feasible region. If ℛ0 is less than or equal to 1, then the infective disappear so the disease dies out. In addition, stochastic noises around the endemic equilibrium will be added to the deterministic MSIR model in order that the deterministic model is extended to a system of stochastic ordinary differential equations. In the stochastic version, we carry out a detailed analysis on the asymptotic behavior of the stochastic model. In addition, regarding the value of ℛ0, when the stochastic system obeys some conditions and ℛ0 is greater than 1, we deduce the stochastic system is stochastically asymptotically stable. Finally, the deterministic and stochastic model dynamics are illustrated through computer simulations.
Statistical surrogate models for prediction of high-consequence climate change.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Constantine, Paul; Field, Richard V., Jr.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick

2011-09-01

In safety engineering, performance metrics are defined using probabilistic risk assessments focused on the low-probability, high-consequence tail of the distribution of possible events, as opposed to best estimates based on central tendencies. We frame the climate change problem and its associated risks in a similar manner. To properly explore the tails of the distribution requires extensive sampling, which is not possible with existing coupled atmospheric models due to the high computational cost of each simulation. We therefore propose the use of specialized statistical surrogate models (SSMs) for the purpose of exploring the probability law of various climate variables of interest.more » A SSM is different than a deterministic surrogate model in that it represents each climate variable of interest as a space/time random field. The SSM can be calibrated to available spatial and temporal data from existing climate databases, e.g., the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI), or to a collection of outputs from a General Circulation Model (GCM), e.g., the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and its predecessors. Because of its reduced size and complexity, the realization of a large number of independent model outputs from a SSM becomes computationally straightforward, so that quantifying the risk associated with low-probability, high-consequence climate events becomes feasible. A Bayesian framework is developed to provide quantitative measures of confidence, via Bayesian credible intervals, in the use of the proposed approach to assess these risks.« less
Assessment of radiation protection awareness and knowledge about radiological examination doses among Italian radiographers.

PubMed

Paolicchi, F; Miniati, F; Bastiani, L; Faggioni, L; Ciaramella, A; Creonti, I; Sottocornola, C; Dionisi, C; Caramella, D

2016-04-01

To evaluate radiation protection basic knowledge and dose assessment for radiological procedures among Italian radiographers A validated questionnaire was distributed to 780 participants with balanced demographic characteristics and geographic distribution. Only 12.1 % of participants attended radiation protection courses on a regular basis. Despite 90 % of radiographers stating to have sufficient awareness of radiation protection issues, most of them underestimated the radiation dose of almost all radiological procedures. About 5 % and 4 % of the participants, respectively, claimed that pelvis magnetic resonance imaging and abdominal ultrasound exposed patients to radiation. On the contrary, 7.0 % of the radiographers stated that mammography does not use ionising radiation. About half of participants believed that radiation-induced cancer is not dependent on age or gender and were not able to differentiate between deterministic and stochastic effects. Young radiographers (with less than 3 years of experience) showed a higher level of knowledge compared with the more experienced radiographers. There is a substantial need for radiographers to improve their awareness of radiation protection issues and their knowledge of radiological procedures. Specific actions such as regular training courses for both undergraduate and postgraduate students as well as for working radiographers must be considered in order to assure patient safety during radiological examinations. • Radiographers should improve their knowledge on radiation protection issues. • Only 12.1 % of participants attended radiation protection courses on a regular basis. • Specific actions must be considered in order to increase knowledge and awareness.
Economic assessment of flood forecasts for a risk-averse decision-maker

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matte, Simon; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Boucher, Vincent; Fortier-Filion, Thomas-Charles

2017-04-01

A large effort has been made over the past 10 years to promote the operational use of probabilistic or ensemble streamflow forecasts. It has also been suggested in past studies that ensemble forecasts might possess a greater economic value than deterministic forecasts. However, the vast majority of recent hydro-economic literature is based on the cost-loss ratio framework, which might be appealing for its simplicity and intuitiveness. One important drawback of the cost-loss ratio is that it implicitly assumes a risk-neutral decision maker. By definition, a risk-neutral individual is indifferent to forecasts' sharpness: as long as forecasts agree with observations on average, the risk-neutral individual is satisfied. A risk-averse individual, however, is sensitive to the level of precision (sharpness) of forecasts. This person is willing to pay to increase his or her certainty about future events. In fact, this is how insurance companies operate: the probability of seeing one's house burn down is relatively low, so the expected cost related to such event is also low. However, people are willing to buy insurance to avoid the risk, however small, of loosing everything. Similarly, in a context where people's safety and property is at stake, the typical decision maker is more risk-averse than risk-neutral. Consequently, the cost-loss ratio is not the most appropriate tool to assess the economic value of flood forecasts. This presentation describes a more realistic framework for assessing the economic value of such forecasts for flood mitigation purposes. Borrowing from economics, the Constant Absolute Risk Aversion utility function (CARA) is the central tool of this new framework. Utility functions allow explicitly accounting for the level of risk aversion of the decision maker and fully exploiting the information related to ensemble forecasts' uncertainty. Three concurrent ensemble streamflow forecasting systems are compared in terms of quality (comparison with observed values) and in terms of their economic value. This assessment is performed for lead times of one to five days. The three systems are: (1) simple statistically dressed deterministic forecasts, (2) forecasts based on meteorological ensembles and (3) a variant of the latter that also includes an estimation of state variables uncertainty. The comparison takes place on the Montmorency River, a small flood-prone watershed in south central Quebec, Canada. The results show that forecasts quality as assessed by well-known tools such as the Continuous Ranked Probability Score or the reliability diagram do not necessarily translate directly into economic value, especially if the decision maker is not risk-neutral. In addition, results show that the economic value of forecasts for a risk-averse decision maker is very much influenced by the most extreme members of ensemble forecasts (upper tail of the predictive distributions). This study provides a new basis for further improvement of our comprehension of the complex interactions between forecasts uncertainty, risk-aversion and decision-making.
Reliability-based trajectory optimization using nonintrusive polynomial chaos for Mars entry mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Yuechen; Li, Haiyang

2018-06-01

This paper presents the reliability-based sequential optimization (RBSO) method to settle the trajectory optimization problem with parametric uncertainties in entry dynamics for Mars entry mission. First, the deterministic entry trajectory optimization model is reviewed, and then the reliability-based optimization model is formulated. In addition, the modified sequential optimization method, in which the nonintrusive polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) method and the most probable point (MPP) searching method are employed, is proposed to solve the reliability-based optimization problem efficiently. The nonintrusive PCE method contributes to the transformation between the stochastic optimization (SO) and the deterministic optimization (DO) and to the approximation of trajectory solution efficiently. The MPP method, which is used for assessing the reliability of constraints satisfaction only up to the necessary level, is employed to further improve the computational efficiency. The cycle including SO, reliability assessment and constraints update is repeated in the RBSO until the reliability requirements of constraints satisfaction are satisfied. Finally, the RBSO is compared with the traditional DO and the traditional sequential optimization based on Monte Carlo (MC) simulation in a specific Mars entry mission to demonstrate the effectiveness and the efficiency of the proposed method.
Recurrent patterns of atrial depolarization during atrial fibrillation assessed by recurrence plot quantification.

PubMed

Censi, F; Barbaro, V; Bartolini, P; Calcagnini, G; Michelucci, A; Gensini, G F; Cerutti, S

2000-01-01

The aim of this study was to determine the presence of organization of atrial activation processes during atrial fibrillation (AF) by assessing whether the activation sequences are wholly random or are governed by deterministic mechanisms. We performed both linear and nonlinear analyses based on the cross correlation function (CCF) and recurrence plot quantification (RPQ), respectively. Recurrence plots were quantified by three variables: percent recurrence (PR), percent determinism (PD), and entropy of recurrences (ER). We recorded bipolar intra-atrial electrograms in two atrial sites during chronic AF in 19 informed subjects, following two protocols. In one, both recording sites were in the right atrium; in the other protocol, one site was in the right atrium, the other one in the left atrium. We extracted 19 episodes of type I AF (Wells' classification). RPQ detected transient recurrent patterns in all the episodes, while CCF was significant only in ten episodes. Surrogate data analysis, based on a cross-phase randomization procedure, decreased PR, PD, and ER values. The detection of spatiotemporal recurrent patterns together with the surrogate data results indicate that during AF a certain degree of local organization exists, likely caused by deterministic mechanisms of activation.
The application of structural reliability techniques to plume impingement loading of the Space Station Freedom Photovoltaic Array

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yunis, Isam S.; Carney, Kelly S.

1993-01-01

A new aerospace application of structural reliability techniques is presented, where the applied forces depend on many probabilistic variables. This application is the plume impingement loading of the Space Station Freedom Photovoltaic Arrays. When the space shuttle berths with Space Station Freedom it must brake and maneuver towards the berthing point using its primary jets. The jet exhaust, or plume, may cause high loads on the photovoltaic arrays. The many parameters governing this problem are highly uncertain and random. An approach, using techniques from structural reliability, as opposed to the accepted deterministic methods, is presented which assesses the probability of failure of the array mast due to plume impingement loading. A Monte Carlo simulation of the berthing approach is used to determine the probability distribution of the loading. A probability distribution is also determined for the strength of the array. Structural reliability techniques are then used to assess the array mast design. These techniques are found to be superior to the standard deterministic dynamic transient analysis, for this class of problem. The results show that the probability of failure of the current array mast design, during its 15 year life, is minute.
Multielevation calibration of frequency-domain electromagnetic data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Minsley, Burke J.; Kass, M. Andy; Hodges, Greg; Smith, Bruce D.

2014-01-01

Systematic calibration errors must be taken into account because they can substantially impact the accuracy of inverted subsurface resistivity models derived from frequency-domain electromagnetic data, resulting in potentially misleading interpretations. We have developed an approach that uses data acquired at multiple elevations over the same location to assess calibration errors. A significant advantage is that this method does not require prior knowledge of subsurface properties from borehole or ground geophysical data (though these can be readily incorporated if available), and is, therefore, well suited to remote areas. The multielevation data were used to solve for calibration parameters and a single subsurface resistivity model that are self consistent over all elevations. The deterministic and Bayesian formulations of the multielevation approach illustrate parameter sensitivity and uncertainty using synthetic- and field-data examples. Multiplicative calibration errors (gain and phase) were found to be better resolved at high frequencies and when data were acquired over a relatively conductive area, whereas additive errors (bias) were reasonably resolved over conductive and resistive areas at all frequencies. The Bayesian approach outperformed the deterministic approach when estimating calibration parameters using multielevation data at a single location; however, joint analysis of multielevation data at multiple locations using the deterministic algorithm yielded the most accurate estimates of calibration parameters. Inversion results using calibration-corrected data revealed marked improvement in misfit, lending added confidence to the interpretation of these models.
Probabilistic Evaluation of Advanced Ceramic Matrix Composite Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abumeri, Galib H.; Chamis, Christos C.

2003-01-01

The objective of this report is to summarize the deterministic and probabilistic structural evaluation results of two structures made with advanced ceramic composites (CMC): internally pressurized tube and uniformly loaded flange. The deterministic structural evaluation includes stress, displacement, and buckling analyses. It is carried out using the finite element code MHOST, developed for the 3-D inelastic analysis of structures that are made with advanced materials. The probabilistic evaluation is performed using the integrated probabilistic assessment of composite structures computer code IPACS. The affects of uncertainties in primitive variables related to the material, fabrication process, and loadings on the material property and structural response behavior are quantified. The primitive variables considered are: thermo-mechanical properties of fiber and matrix, fiber and void volume ratios, use temperature, and pressure. The probabilistic structural analysis and probabilistic strength results are used by IPACS to perform reliability and risk evaluation of the two structures. The results will show that the sensitivity information obtained for the two composite structures from the computational simulation can be used to alter the design process to meet desired service requirements. In addition to detailed probabilistic analysis of the two structures, the following were performed specifically on the CMC tube: (1) predicted the failure load and the buckling load, (2) performed coupled non-deterministic multi-disciplinary structural analysis, and (3) demonstrated that probabilistic sensitivities can be used to select a reduced set of design variables for optimization.
Deterministic or Probabilistic - Robustness or Resilience: How to Respond to Climate Change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plag, H.; Earnest, D.; Jules-Plag, S.

2013-12-01

Our response to climate change is dominated by a deterministic approach that emphasizes the interaction between only the natural and the built environment. But in the non-ergodic world of unprecedented climate change, social factors drive recovery from unforeseen Black Swans much more than natural or built ones. Particularly the sea level rise discussion focuses on deterministic predictions, accounting for uncertainties in major driving processes with a set of forcing scenarios and public deliberations on which of the plausible trajectories is most likely. Science focuses on the prediction of future climate change, and policies focus on mitigation of both climate change itself and its impacts. The deterministic approach is based on two basic assumptions: 1) Climate change is an ergodic process; 2) The urban coast is a robust system. Evidence suggests that these assumptions may not hold. Anthropogenic changes are pushing key parameters of the climate system outside of the natural range of variability from the last 1 Million years, creating the potential for environmental Black Swans. A probabilistic approach allows for non-ergodic processes and focuses more on resilience, hence does not depend on the two assumptions. Recent experience with hurricanes revealed threshold limitations of the built environment of the urban coast, which, once exceeded, brought to the forefront the importance of the social fabric and social networking in evaluating resilience. Resilience strongly depends on social capital, and building social capital that can create resilience must be a key element in our response to climate change. Although social capital cannot mitigate hazards, social scientists have found that communities rich in strong norms of cooperation recover more quickly than communities without social capital. There is growing evidence that the built environment can affect the social capital of a community, for example public health and perceptions of public safety. This suggests an intriguing hypothesis: disaster risk reduction programs need to account for whether they also facilitate the public trust, cooperation, and communication needed to recover from a disaster. Our work in the Hampton Roads area, where the probability of hazardous flooding and inundation events exceeding the thresholds of the infrastructure is high, suggests that to facilitate the paradigm shift from the deterministic to a probabilistic approach, natural sciences have to focus on hazard probabilities, while engineering and social sciences have to work together to understand how interactions of the built and social environments impact robustness and resilience. The current science-policy relationship needs to be augmented by social structures that can learn from previous unexpected events. In this response to climate change, science does not have the primary goal to reduce uncertainties and prediction errors, but rather to develop processes that can utilize uncertainties and surprises to increase robustness, strengthen resilience, and reduce fragility of the social systems during times when infrastructure fails.
Conflict Detection and Resolution for Future Air Transportation Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krozel, Jimmy; Peters, Mark E.; Hunter, George

1997-01-01

With a Free Flight policy, the emphasis for air traffic control is shifting from active control to passive air traffic management with a policy of intervention by exception. Aircraft will be allowed to fly user preferred routes, as long as safety Alert Zones are not violated. If there is a potential conflict, two (or more) aircraft must be able to arrive at a solution for conflict resolution without controller intervention. Thus, decision aid tools are needed in Free Flight to detect and resolve conflicts, and several problems must be solved to develop such tools. In this report, we analyze and solve problems of proximity management, conflict detection, and conflict resolution under a Free Flight policy. For proximity management, we establish a system based on Delaunay Triangulations of aircraft at constant flight levels. Such a system provides a means for analyzing the neighbor relationships between aircraft and the nearby free space around air traffic which can be utilized later in conflict resolution. For conflict detection, we perform both 2-dimensional and 3-dimensional analyses based on the penetration of the Protected Airspace Zone. Both deterministic and non-deterministic analyses are performed. We investigate several types of conflict warnings including tactical warnings prior to penetrating the Protected Airspace Zone, methods based on the reachability overlap of both aircraft, and conflict probability maps to establish strategic Alert Zones around aircraft.
Public health consequences of macrolide use in food animals: a deterministic risk assessment.

PubMed

Hurd, H Scott; Doores, Stephanie; Hayes, Dermot; Mathew, Alan; Maurer, John; Silley, Peter; Singer, Randall S; Jones, Ronald N

2004-05-01

The potential impact on human health from antibiotic-resistant bacteria selected by use of antibiotics in food animals has resulted in many reports and recommended actions. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration Center for Veterinary Medicine has issued Guidance Document 152, which advises veterinary drug sponsors of one potential process for conducting a qualitative risk assessment of drug use in food animals. Using this guideline, we developed a deterministic model to assess the risk from two macrolide antibiotics, tylosin and tilmicosin. The scope of modeling included all label claim uses of both macrolides in poultry, swine, and beef cattle. The Guidance Document was followed to define the hazard, which is illness (i) caused by foodborne bacteria with a resistance determinant, (ii) attributed to a specified animal-derived meat commodity, and (iii) treated with a human use drug of the same class. Risk was defined as the probability of this hazard combined with the consequence of treatment failure due to resistant Campylobacter spp. or Enterococcus faecium. A binomial event model was applied to estimate the annual risk for the U.S. general population. Parameters were derived from industry drug use surveys, scientific literature, medical guidelines, and government documents. This unique farm-to-patient risk assessment demonstrated that use of tylosin and tilmicosin in food animals presents a very low risk of human treatment failure, with an approximate annual probability of less than 1 in 10 million Campylobacter-derived and approximately 1 in 3 billion E. faecium-derived risk.
A comprehensive multi-scenario based approach for a reliable flood-hazard assessment: a case-study application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lanni, Cristiano; Mazzorana, Bruno; Volcan, Claudio; Bertagnolli, Rudi

2015-04-01

Flood hazard is generally assessed by assuming the return period of the rainfall as a proxy for the return period of the discharge and the related hydrograph. Frequently this deterministic view is extended also to the straightforward application of hydrodynamic models. However, the climate (i.e. precipitation), the catchment (i.e. geology, soil and antecedent soil-moisture condition) and the anthropogenic (i.e. drainage system and its regulation) systems interact in a complex way, and the occurrence probability of a flood inundation event can significantly differ from the occurrence probability of the triggering event (i.e. rainfall). In order to reliably determine the spatial patterns of flood intensities and probabilities, the rigorous determination of flood event scenarios is beneficial because it provides a clear, rationale method to recognize and unveil the inherent stochastic behavior of natural processes. Therefore, a multi-scenario approach for hazard assessment should be applied and should consider the possible events taking place in the area potentially subject to flooding (i.e. floodplains). Here, we apply a multi-scenario approach for the assessment of the flood hazard around the Idro lake (Italy). We consider and estimate the probability of occurrence of several scenarios related to the initial (i.e. initial water level in the lake) and boundary (i.e. shape of the hydrograph, downslope drainage, spillway opening operations) conditions characterizing the lake. Finally, we discuss the advantages and issues of the presented methodological procedure compared to traditional (and essentially deterministic) approaches.
Developing safety performance functions incorporating reliability-based risk measures.

PubMed

Ibrahim, Shewkar El-Bassiouni; Sayed, Tarek

2011-11-01

Current geometric design guides provide deterministic standards where the safety margin of the design output is generally unknown and there is little knowledge of the safety implications of deviating from these standards. Several studies have advocated probabilistic geometric design where reliability analysis can be used to account for the uncertainty in the design parameters and to provide a risk measure of the implication of deviation from design standards. However, there is currently no link between measures of design reliability and the quantification of safety using collision frequency. The analysis presented in this paper attempts to bridge this gap by incorporating a reliability-based quantitative risk measure such as the probability of non-compliance (P(nc)) in safety performance functions (SPFs). Establishing this link will allow admitting reliability-based design into traditional benefit-cost analysis and should lead to a wider application of the reliability technique in road design. The present application is concerned with the design of horizontal curves, where the limit state function is defined in terms of the available (supply) and stopping (demand) sight distances. A comprehensive collision and geometric design database of two-lane rural highways is used to investigate the effect of the probability of non-compliance on safety. The reliability analysis was carried out using the First Order Reliability Method (FORM). Two Negative Binomial (NB) SPFs were developed to compare models with and without the reliability-based risk measures. It was found that models incorporating the P(nc) provided a better fit to the data set than the traditional (without risk) NB SPFs for total, injury and fatality (I+F) and property damage only (PDO) collisions. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Deterministic and stochastic CTMC models from Zika disease transmission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zevika, Mona; Soewono, Edy

2018-03-01

Zika infection is one of the most important mosquito-borne diseases in the world. Zika virus (ZIKV) is transmitted by many Aedes-type mosquitoes including Aedes aegypti. Pregnant women with the Zika virus are at risk of having a fetus or infant with a congenital defect and suffering from microcephaly. Here, we formulate a Zika disease transmission model using two approaches, a deterministic model and a continuous-time Markov chain stochastic model. The basic reproduction ratio is constructed from a deterministic model. Meanwhile, the CTMC stochastic model yields an estimate of the probability of extinction and outbreaks of Zika disease. Dynamical simulations and analysis of the disease transmission are shown for the deterministic and stochastic models.
Distinguishing between stochasticity and determinism: Examples from cell cycle duration variability.

PubMed

Pearl Mizrahi, Sivan; Sandler, Oded; Lande-Diner, Laura; Balaban, Nathalie Q; Simon, Itamar

2016-01-01

We describe a recent approach for distinguishing between stochastic and deterministic sources of variability, focusing on the mammalian cell cycle. Variability between cells is often attributed to stochastic noise, although it may be generated by deterministic components. Interestingly, lineage information can be used to distinguish between variability and determinism. Analysis of correlations within a lineage of the mammalian cell cycle duration revealed its deterministic nature. Here, we discuss the sources of such variability and the possibility that the underlying deterministic process is due to the circadian clock. Finally, we discuss the "kicked cell cycle" model and its implication on the study of the cell cycle in healthy and cancerous tissues. © 2015 WILEY Periodicals, Inc.
Disentangling Mechanisms That Mediate the Balance Between Stochastic and Deterministic Processes in Microbial Succession

DOE PAGES

Dini-Andreote, Francisco; Stegen, James C.; van Elsas, Jan D.; ...

2015-03-17

Despite growing recognition that deterministic and stochastic factors simultaneously influence bacterial communities, little is known about mechanisms shifting their relative importance. To better understand underlying mechanisms, we developed a conceptual model linking ecosystem development during primary succession to shifts in the stochastic/deterministic balance. To evaluate the conceptual model we coupled spatiotemporal data on soil bacterial communities with environmental conditions spanning 105 years of salt marsh development. At the local scale there was a progression from stochasticity to determinism due to Na accumulation with increasing ecosystem age, supporting a main element of the conceptual model. At the regional-scale, soil organic mattermore » (SOM) governed the relative influence of stochasticity and the type of deterministic ecological selection, suggesting scale-dependency in how deterministic ecological selection is imposed. Analysis of a new ecological simulation model supported these conceptual inferences. Looking forward, we propose an extended conceptual model that integrates primary and secondary succession in microbial systems.« less
An efficient deterministic-probabilistic approach to modeling regional groundwater flow: 2. Application to Owens Valley, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guymon, Gary L.; Yen, Chung-Cheng

1990-01-01

The applicability of a deterministic-probabilistic model for predicting water tables in southern Owens Valley, California, is evaluated. The model is based on a two-layer deterministic model that is cascaded with a two-point probability model. To reduce the potentially large number of uncertain variables in the deterministic model, lumping of uncertain variables was evaluated by sensitivity analysis to reduce the total number of uncertain variables to three variables: hydraulic conductivity, storage coefficient or specific yield, and source-sink function. Results demonstrate that lumping of uncertain parameters reduces computational effort while providing sufficient precision for the case studied. Simulated spatial coefficients of variation for water table temporal position in most of the basin is small, which suggests that deterministic models can predict water tables in these areas with good precision. However, in several important areas where pumping occurs or the geology is complex, the simulated spatial coefficients of variation are over estimated by the two-point probability method.
An efficient deterministic-probabilistic approach to modeling regional groundwater flow: 2. Application to Owens Valley, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guymon, Gary L.; Yen, Chung-Cheng

1990-07-01

The applicability of a deterministic-probabilistic model for predicting water tables in southern Owens Valley, California, is evaluated. The model is based on a two-layer deterministic model that is cascaded with a two-point probability model. To reduce the potentially large number of uncertain variables in the deterministic model, lumping of uncertain variables was evaluated by sensitivity analysis to reduce the total number of uncertain variables to three variables: hydraulic conductivity, storage coefficient or specific yield, and source-sink function. Results demonstrate that lumping of uncertain parameters reduces computational effort while providing sufficient precision for the case studied. Simulated spatial coefficients of variation for water table temporal position in most of the basin is small, which suggests that deterministic models can predict water tables in these areas with good precision. However, in several important areas where pumping occurs or the geology is complex, the simulated spatial coefficients of variation are over estimated by the two-point probability method.

Statistics of Delta v magnitude for a trajectory correction maneuver containing deterministic and random components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bollman, W. E.; Chadwick, C.

1982-01-01

A number of interplanetary missions now being planned involve placing deterministic maneuvers along the flight path to alter the trajectory. Lee and Boain (1973) examined the statistics of trajectory correction maneuver (TCM) magnitude with no deterministic ('bias') component. The Delta v vector magnitude statistics were generated for several values of random Delta v standard deviations using expansions in terms of infinite hypergeometric series. The present investigation uses a different technique (Monte Carlo simulation) to generate Delta v magnitude statistics for a wider selection of random Delta v standard deviations and also extends the analysis to the case of nonzero deterministic Delta v's. These Delta v magnitude statistics are plotted parametrically. The plots are useful in assisting the analyst in quickly answering questions about the statistics of Delta v magnitude for single TCM's consisting of both a deterministic and a random component. The plots provide quick insight into the nature of the Delta v magnitude distribution for the TCM.
Methodology for safety optimization of highway cross-sections for horizontal curves with restricted sight distance.

PubMed

Ibrahim, Shewkar E; Sayed, Tarek; Ismail, Karim

2012-11-01

Several earlier studies have noted the shortcomings with existing geometric design guides which provide deterministic standards. In these standards the safety margin of the design output is generally unknown and there is little knowledge of the safety implications of deviating from the standards. To mitigate these shortcomings, probabilistic geometric design has been advocated where reliability analysis can be used to account for the uncertainty in the design parameters and to provide a mechanism for risk measurement to evaluate the safety impact of deviations from design standards. This paper applies reliability analysis for optimizing the safety of highway cross-sections. The paper presents an original methodology to select a suitable combination of cross-section elements with restricted sight distance to result in reduced collisions and consistent risk levels. The purpose of this optimization method is to provide designers with a proactive approach to the design of cross-section elements in order to (i) minimize the risk associated with restricted sight distance, (ii) balance the risk across the two carriageways of the highway, and (iii) reduce the expected collision frequency. A case study involving nine cross-sections that are parts of two major highway developments in British Columbia, Canada, was presented. The results showed that an additional reduction in collisions can be realized by incorporating the reliability component, P(nc) (denoting the probability of non-compliance), in the optimization process. The proposed approach results in reduced and consistent risk levels for both travel directions in addition to further collision reductions. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
SCALE Code System 6.2.2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rearden, Bradley T.; Jessee, Matthew Anderson

The SCALE Code System is a widely used modeling and simulation suite for nuclear safety analysis and design that is developed, maintained, tested, and managed by the Reactor and Nuclear Systems Division (RNSD) of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). SCALE provides a comprehensive, verified and validated, user-friendly tool set for criticality safety, reactor physics, radiation shielding, radioactive source term characterization, and sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. Since 1980, regulators, licensees, and research institutions around the world have used SCALE for safety analysis and design. SCALE provides an integrated framework with dozens of computational modules including 3 deterministic and 3 Monte Carlomore » radiation transport solvers that are selected based on the desired solution strategy. SCALE includes current nuclear data libraries and problem-dependent processing tools for continuous-energy (CE) and multigroup (MG) neutronics and coupled neutron-gamma calculations, as well as activation, depletion, and decay calculations. SCALE includes unique capabilities for automated variance reduction for shielding calculations, as well as sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. SCALE’s graphical user interfaces assist with accurate system modeling, visualization of nuclear data, and convenient access to desired results. SCALE 6.2 represents one of the most comprehensive revisions in the history of SCALE, providing several new capabilities and significant improvements in many existing features.« less
Simultaneous estimation of deterministic and fractal stochastic components in non-stationary time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García, Constantino A.; Otero, Abraham; Félix, Paulo; Presedo, Jesús; Márquez, David G.

2018-07-01

In the past few decades, it has been recognized that 1 / f fluctuations are ubiquitous in nature. The most widely used mathematical models to capture the long-term memory properties of 1 / f fluctuations have been stochastic fractal models. However, physical systems do not usually consist of just stochastic fractal dynamics, but they often also show some degree of deterministic behavior. The present paper proposes a model based on fractal stochastic and deterministic components that can provide a valuable basis for the study of complex systems with long-term correlations. The fractal stochastic component is assumed to be a fractional Brownian motion process and the deterministic component is assumed to be a band-limited signal. We also provide a method that, under the assumptions of this model, is able to characterize the fractal stochastic component and to provide an estimate of the deterministic components present in a given time series. The method is based on a Bayesian wavelet shrinkage procedure that exploits the self-similar properties of the fractal processes in the wavelet domain. This method has been validated over simulated signals and over real signals with economical and biological origin. Real examples illustrate how our model may be useful for exploring the deterministic-stochastic duality of complex systems, and uncovering interesting patterns present in time series.
Inferring Fitness Effects from Time-Resolved Sequence Data with a Delay-Deterministic Model

PubMed Central

Nené, Nuno R.; Dunham, Alistair S.; Illingworth, Christopher J. R.

2018-01-01

A common challenge arising from the observation of an evolutionary system over time is to infer the magnitude of selection acting upon a specific genetic variant, or variants, within the population. The inference of selection may be confounded by the effects of genetic drift in a system, leading to the development of inference procedures to account for these effects. However, recent work has suggested that deterministic models of evolution may be effective in capturing the effects of selection even under complex models of demography, suggesting the more general application of deterministic approaches to inference. Responding to this literature, we here note a case in which a deterministic model of evolution may give highly misleading inferences, resulting from the nondeterministic properties of mutation in a finite population. We propose an alternative approach that acts to correct for this error, and which we denote the delay-deterministic model. Applying our model to a simple evolutionary system, we demonstrate its performance in quantifying the extent of selection acting within that system. We further consider the application of our model to sequence data from an evolutionary experiment. We outline scenarios in which our model may produce improved results for the inference of selection, noting that such situations can be easily identified via the use of a regular deterministic model. PMID:29500183
Developing and Implementing the Data Mining Algorithms in RAVEN

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sen, Ramazan Sonat; Maljovec, Daniel Patrick; Alfonsi, Andrea

The RAVEN code is becoming a comprehensive tool to perform probabilistic risk assessment, uncertainty quantification, and verification and validation. The RAVEN code is being developed to support many programs and to provide a set of methodologies and algorithms for advanced analysis. Scientific computer codes can generate enormous amounts of data. To post-process and analyze such data might, in some cases, take longer than the initial software runtime. Data mining algorithms/methods help in recognizing and understanding patterns in the data, and thus discover knowledge in databases. The methodologies used in the dynamic probabilistic risk assessment or in uncertainty and error quantificationmore » analysis couple system/physics codes with simulation controller codes, such as RAVEN. RAVEN introduces both deterministic and stochastic elements into the simulation while the system/physics code model the dynamics deterministically. A typical analysis is performed by sampling values of a set of parameter values. A major challenge in using dynamic probabilistic risk assessment or uncertainty and error quantification analysis for a complex system is to analyze the large number of scenarios generated. Data mining techniques are typically used to better organize and understand data, i.e. recognizing patterns in the data. This report focuses on development and implementation of Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) for different data mining algorithms, and the application of these algorithms to different databases.« less
A cost-effectiveness analysis of two different antimicrobial stewardship programs.

PubMed

Okumura, Lucas Miyake; Riveros, Bruno Salgado; Gomes-da-Silva, Monica Maria; Veroneze, Izelandia

2016-01-01

There is a lack of formal economic analysis to assess the efficiency of antimicrobial stewardship programs. Herein, we conducted a cost-effectiveness study to assess two different strategies of Antimicrobial Stewardship Programs. A 30-day Markov model was developed to analyze how cost-effective was a Bundled Antimicrobial Stewardship implemented in a university hospital in Brazil. Clinical data derived from a historical cohort that compared two different strategies of antimicrobial stewardship programs and had 30-day mortality as main outcome. Selected costs included: workload, cost of defined daily doses, length of stay, laboratory and imaging resources used to diagnose infections. Data were analyzed by deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis to assess model's robustness, tornado diagram and Cost-Effectiveness Acceptability Curve. Bundled Strategy was more expensive (Cost difference US$ 2119.70), however, it was more efficient (US$ 27,549.15 vs 29,011.46). Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis suggested that critical variables did not alter final Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio. Bundled Strategy had higher probabilities of being cost-effective, which was endorsed by cost-effectiveness acceptability curve. As health systems claim for efficient technologies, this study conclude that Bundled Antimicrobial Stewardship Program was more cost-effective, which means that stewardship strategies with such characteristics would be of special interest in a societal and clinical perspective. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.
Automatic mesh adaptivity for hybrid Monte Carlo/deterministic neutronics modeling of difficult shielding problems

DOE PAGES

Ibrahim, Ahmad M.; Wilson, Paul P.H.; Sawan, Mohamed E.; ...

2015-06-30

The CADIS and FW-CADIS hybrid Monte Carlo/deterministic techniques dramatically increase the efficiency of neutronics modeling, but their use in the accurate design analysis of very large and geometrically complex nuclear systems has been limited by the large number of processors and memory requirements for their preliminary deterministic calculations and final Monte Carlo calculation. Three mesh adaptivity algorithms were developed to reduce the memory requirements of CADIS and FW-CADIS without sacrificing their efficiency improvement. First, a macromaterial approach enhances the fidelity of the deterministic models without changing the mesh. Second, a deterministic mesh refinement algorithm generates meshes that capture as muchmore » geometric detail as possible without exceeding a specified maximum number of mesh elements. Finally, a weight window coarsening algorithm decouples the weight window mesh and energy bins from the mesh and energy group structure of the deterministic calculations in order to remove the memory constraint of the weight window map from the deterministic mesh resolution. The three algorithms were used to enhance an FW-CADIS calculation of the prompt dose rate throughout the ITER experimental facility. Using these algorithms resulted in a 23.3% increase in the number of mesh tally elements in which the dose rates were calculated in a 10-day Monte Carlo calculation and, additionally, increased the efficiency of the Monte Carlo simulation by a factor of at least 3.4. The three algorithms enabled this difficult calculation to be accurately solved using an FW-CADIS simulation on a regular computer cluster, eliminating the need for a world-class super computer.« less
Neo-Deterministic and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments: a Comparative Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peresan, Antonella; Magrin, Andrea; Nekrasova, Anastasia; Kossobokov, Vladimir; Panza, Giuliano F.

2016-04-01

Objective testing is the key issue towards any reliable seismic hazard assessment (SHA). Different earthquake hazard maps must demonstrate their capability in anticipating ground shaking from future strong earthquakes before an appropriate use for different purposes - such as engineering design, insurance, and emergency management. Quantitative assessment of maps performances is an essential step also in scientific process of their revision and possible improvement. Cross-checking of probabilistic models with available observations and independent physics based models is recognized as major validation procedure. The existing maps from the classical probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), as well as those from the neo-deterministic analysis (NDSHA), which have been already developed for several regions worldwide (including Italy, India and North Africa), are considered to exemplify the possibilities of the cross-comparative analysis in spotting out limits and advantages of different methods. Where the data permit, a comparative analysis versus the documented seismic activity observed in reality is carried out, showing how available observations about past earthquakes can contribute to assess performances of the different methods. Neo-deterministic refers to a scenario-based approach, which allows for consideration of a wide range of possible earthquake sources as the starting point for scenarios constructed via full waveforms modeling. The method does not make use of empirical attenuation models (i.e. Ground Motion Prediction Equations, GMPE) and naturally supplies realistic time series of ground shaking (i.e. complete synthetic seismograms), readily applicable to complete engineering analysis and other mitigation actions. The standard NDSHA maps provide reliable envelope estimates of maximum seismic ground motion from a wide set of possible scenario earthquakes, including the largest deterministically or historically defined credible earthquake. In addition, the flexibility of NDSHA allows for generation of ground shaking maps at specified long-term return times, which may permit a straightforward comparison between NDSHA and PSHA maps in terms of average rates of exceedance for specified time windows. The comparison of NDSHA and PSHA maps, particularly for very long recurrence times, may indicate to what extent probabilistic ground shaking estimates are consistent with those from physical models of seismic waves propagation. A systematic comparison over the territory of Italy is carried out exploiting the uniqueness of the Italian earthquake catalogue, a data set covering more than a millennium (a time interval about ten times longer than that available in most of the regions worldwide) with a satisfactory completeness level for M>5, which warrants the results of analysis. By analysing in some detail seismicity in the Vrancea region, we show that well constrained macroseismic field information for individual earthquakes may provide useful information about the reliability of ground shaking estimates. Finally, in order to generalise observations, the comparative analysis is extended to further regions where both standard NDSHA and PSHA maps are available (e.g. State of Gujarat, India). The final Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP) results and the most recent version of Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe (SHARE) project maps, along with other national scale probabilistic maps, all obtained by PSHA, are considered for this comparative analysis.
Improving ground-penetrating radar data in sedimentary rocks using deterministic deconvolution

USGS Publications Warehouse

Xia, J.; Franseen, E.K.; Miller, R.D.; Weis, T.V.; Byrnes, A.P.

2003-01-01

Resolution is key to confidently identifying unique geologic features using ground-penetrating radar (GPR) data. Source wavelet "ringing" (related to bandwidth) in a GPR section limits resolution because of wavelet interference, and can smear reflections in time and/or space. The resultant potential for misinterpretation limits the usefulness of GPR. Deconvolution offers the ability to compress the source wavelet and improve temporal resolution. Unlike statistical deconvolution, deterministic deconvolution is mathematically simple and stable while providing the highest possible resolution because it uses the source wavelet unique to the specific radar equipment. Source wavelets generated in, transmitted through and acquired from air allow successful application of deterministic approaches to wavelet suppression. We demonstrate the validity of using a source wavelet acquired in air as the operator for deterministic deconvolution in a field application using "400-MHz" antennas at a quarry site characterized by interbedded carbonates with shale partings. We collected GPR data on a bench adjacent to cleanly exposed quarry faces in which we placed conductive rods to provide conclusive groundtruth for this approach to deconvolution. The best deconvolution results, which are confirmed by the conductive rods for the 400-MHz antenna tests, were observed for wavelets acquired when the transmitter and receiver were separated by 0.3 m. Applying deterministic deconvolution to GPR data collected in sedimentary strata at our study site resulted in an improvement in resolution (50%) and improved spatial location (0.10-0.15 m) of geologic features compared to the same data processed without deterministic deconvolution. The effectiveness of deterministic deconvolution for increased resolution and spatial accuracy of specific geologic features is further demonstrated by comparing results of deconvolved data with nondeconvolved data acquired along a 30-m transect immediately adjacent to a fresh quarry face. The results at this site support using deterministic deconvolution, which incorporates the GPR instrument's unique source wavelet, as a standard part of routine GPR data processing. ?? 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Expansion or extinction: deterministic and stochastic two-patch models with Allee effects.

PubMed

Kang, Yun; Lanchier, Nicolas

2011-06-01

We investigate the impact of Allee effect and dispersal on the long-term evolution of a population in a patchy environment. Our main focus is on whether a population already established in one patch either successfully invades an adjacent empty patch or undergoes a global extinction. Our study is based on the combination of analytical and numerical results for both a deterministic two-patch model and a stochastic counterpart. The deterministic model has either two, three or four attractors. The existence of a regime with exactly three attractors only appears when patches have distinct Allee thresholds. In the presence of weak dispersal, the analysis of the deterministic model shows that a high-density and a low-density populations can coexist at equilibrium in nearby patches, whereas the analysis of the stochastic model indicates that this equilibrium is metastable, thus leading after a large random time to either a global expansion or a global extinction. Up to some critical dispersal, increasing the intensity of the interactions leads to an increase of both the basin of attraction of the global extinction and the basin of attraction of the global expansion. Above this threshold, for both the deterministic and the stochastic models, the patches tend to synchronize as the intensity of the dispersal increases. This results in either a global expansion or a global extinction. For the deterministic model, there are only two attractors, while the stochastic model no longer exhibits a metastable behavior. In the presence of strong dispersal, the limiting behavior is entirely determined by the value of the Allee thresholds as the global population size in the deterministic and the stochastic models evolves as dictated by their single-patch counterparts. For all values of the dispersal parameter, Allee effects promote global extinction in terms of an expansion of the basin of attraction of the extinction equilibrium for the deterministic model and an increase of the probability of extinction for the stochastic model.
Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics Analysis of the Orbiter's LH2 Feedline Flowliner

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bonacuse, Peter J. (Technical Monitor); Hudak, Stephen J., Jr.; Huyse, Luc; Chell, Graham; Lee, Yi-Der; Riha, David S.; Thacker, Ben; McClung, Craig; Gardner, Brian; Leverant, Gerald R.;

2005-01-01

Work performed by Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) as part of an Independent Technical Assessment (ITA) for the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) is summarized. The ITA goal was to establish a flight rationale in light of a history of fatigue cracking due to flow induced vibrations in the feedline flowliners that supply liquid hydrogen to the space shuttle main engines. Prior deterministic analyses using worst-case assumptions predicted failure in a single flight. The current work formulated statistical models for dynamic loading and cryogenic fatigue crack growth properties, instead of using worst-case assumptions. Weight function solutions for bivariant stressing were developed to determine accurate crack "driving-forces". Monte Carlo simulations showed that low flowliner probabilities of failure (POF = 0.001 to 0.0001) are achievable, provided pre-flight inspections for cracks are performed with adequate probability of detection (POD)-specifically, 20/75 mils with 50%/99% POD. Measurements to confirm assumed POD curves are recommended. Since the computed POFs are very sensitive to the cyclic loads/stresses and the analysis of strain gage data revealed inconsistencies with the previous assumption of a single dominant vibrant mode, further work to reconcile this difference is recommended. It is possible that the unaccounted vibrational modes in the flight spectra could increase the computed POFs.

Assessment of the transportation route of oversize and excessive loads in relation to the load-bearing capacity of existing bridges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doležel, Jiří; Novák, Drahomír; Petrů, Jan

2017-09-01

Transportation routes of oversize and excessive loads are currently planned in relation to ensure the transit of a vehicle through critical points on the road. Critical points are level-intersection of roads, bridges etc. This article presents a comprehensive procedure to determine a reliability and a load-bearing capacity level of the existing bridges on highways and roads using the advanced methods of reliability analysis based on simulation techniques of Monte Carlo type in combination with nonlinear finite element method analysis. The safety index is considered as a main criterion of the reliability level of the existing construction structures and the index is described in current structural design standards, e.g. ISO and Eurocode. An example of a single-span slab bridge made of precast prestressed concrete girders of the 60 year current time and its load bearing capacity is set for the ultimate limit state and serviceability limit state. The structure’s design load capacity was estimated by the full probability nonlinear MKP analysis using a simulation technique Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS). Load-bearing capacity values based on a fully probabilistic analysis are compared with the load-bearing capacity levels which were estimated by deterministic methods of a critical section of the most loaded girders.
Environmental risk assessment of polycyclic musks HHCB and AHTN in consumer product chemicals in China.

PubMed

Fan, Ming; Liu, Zhengtao; Dyer, Scott; Xia, Pu; Zhang, Xiaowei

2017-12-01

An environmental risk assessment (ERA) framework was recently developed for consumer product chemicals in China using a tiered approach, applying an existing Chinese regulatory qualitative method in Tier Zero and, then, utilizing deterministic and probabilistic methods for Tiers One and Two. The exposure assessment methodology in the framework applied conditions specific to China including physical setting, infrastructure, and consumers' habits and practices. Furthermore, two scenarios were identified for quantitatively assessing environmental exposure: (1) Urban with wastewater treatment, and; (2) Rural without wastewater treatment (i.e., direct-discharge of wastewater). Upon a brief discussion on the framework methodology, this paper primarily presented a case study conducted using this new approach for assessing two fragrance chemicals, the polycyclic musks HHCB (Galaxolide, 1,3,4,6,7,8-hexahydro-4,6,6,7,8,8-hexamethylcyclopenta-[gamma]-2-benzopyran) and AHTN (Tonalide, 7-acetyl-1,1,3,4,4,6-hexamethyl-1,2,3,4-tetrahydronaphthalene). Both HHCB and AHTN are widely used as fragrances in a variety of consumer products in China, and occurrences of both compounds have been reported in wastewater influents, effluents, and sludge, in addition to surface water and sediments across several major metropolitan regions throughout China. This case study illustrated the very conservative nature of Tier Zero, which indicated a high risk potential of the fragrances to receiving water aquatic communities due to the fragrance's non-ready biodegradability and eco-toxicity profiles. However, the higher-tiered assessments (including deterministic and site-specific probabilistic) demonstrated greater environmental realism with the conclusion of HHCB and AHTN posing minimal risk, consistent with local monitoring data as well as a recent similar study conducted in the United States. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Investigation of HZETRN 2010 as a Tool for Single Event Effect Qualification of Avionics Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rojdev, Kristina; Koontz, Steve; Atwell, William; Boeder, Paul

2014-01-01

NASA's future missions are focused on long-duration deep space missions for human exploration which offers no options for a quick emergency return to Earth. The combination of long mission duration with no quick emergency return option leads to unprecedented spacecraft system safety and reliability requirements. It is important that spacecraft avionics systems for human deep space missions are not susceptible to Single Event Effect (SEE) failures caused by space radiation (primarily the continuous galactic cosmic ray background and the occasional solar particle event) interactions with electronic components and systems. SEE effects are typically managed during the design, development, and test (DD&T) phase of spacecraft development by using heritage hardware (if possible) and through extensive component level testing, followed by system level failure analysis tasks that are both time consuming and costly. The ultimate product of the SEE DD&T program is a prediction of spacecraft avionics reliability in the flight environment produced using various nuclear reaction and transport codes in combination with the component and subsystem level radiation test data. Previous work by Koontz, et al.1 utilized FLUKA, a Monte Carlo nuclear reaction and transport code, to calculate SEE and single event upset (SEU) rates. This code was then validated against in-flight data for a variety of spacecraft and space flight environments. However, FLUKA has a long run-time (on the order of days). CREME962, an easy to use deterministic code offering short run times, was also compared with FLUKA predictions and in-flight data. CREME96, though fast and easy to use, has not been updated in several years and underestimates secondary particle shower effects in spacecraft structural shielding mass. Thus, this paper will investigate the use of HZETRN 20103, a fast and easy to use deterministic transport code, similar to CREME96, that was developed at NASA Langley Research Center primarily for flight crew ionizing radiation dose assessments. HZETRN 2010 includes updates to address secondary particle shower effects more accurately, and might be used as another tool to verify spacecraft avionics system reliability in space flight SEE environments.
Cost-effectiveness of pazopanib versus sunitinib for metastatic renal cell carcinoma in the United Kingdom

PubMed Central

Amdahl, Jordan; Diaz, Jose; Sharma, Arati; Park, Jinhee; Chandiwana, David

2017-01-01

Background Sunitinib and pazopanib are the only two targeted therapies for the first-line treatment of locally advanced or metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) recommended by the United Kingdom’s National Institute for Health and Care Excellence. Pazopanib demonstrated non-inferior efficacy and a differentiated safety profile versus sunitinib in the phase III COMPARZ trial. The current analysis provides a direct comparison of the cost-effectiveness of pazopanib versus sunitinib from the perspective of the United Kingdom’s National Health Service based on data from COMPARZ and other sources. Methods A partitioned-survival analysis model with three health states (alive with no progression, alive with progression, or dead) was used to estimate the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained for pazopanib versus sunitinib over five years (duration of follow-up for final survival analysis in COMPARZ). The proportion of patients in each health state over time was based on Kaplan–Meier distributions for progression-free and overall survival from COMPARZ. Utility values were based on EQ-5D data from the pivotal study of pazopanib versus placebo. Costs were based on medical resource utilisation data from COMPARZ and unit costs from secondary sources. Probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess uncertainty of model results. Results In the base case, pazopanib was estimated to provide more QALYs (0.0565, 95% credible interval [CrI]: −0.0920 to 0.2126) at a lower cost (−£1,061, 95% CrI: −£4,328 to £2,067) versus sunitinib. The probability that pazopanib yields more QALYs than sunitinib was estimated to be 76%. For a threshold value of £30,000 per QALY gained, the probability that pazopanib is cost-effective versus sunitinib was estimated to be 95%. Pazopanib was dominant in most scenarios examined in deterministic sensitivity analyses. Conclusions Pazopanib is likely to be a cost-effective treatment option compared with sunitinib as first-line treatment of mRCC in the United Kingdom. PMID:28636648
Economic analysis of interventions to improve village chicken production in Myanmar.

PubMed

Henning, J; Morton, J; Pym, R; Hla, T; Sunn, K; Meers, J

2013-07-01

A cost-benefit analysis using deterministic and stochastic modelling was conducted to identify the net benefits for households that adopt (1) vaccination of individual birds against Newcastle disease (ND) or (2) improved management of chick rearing by providing coops for the protection of chicks from predation and chick starter feed inside a creep feeder to support chicks' nutrition in village chicken flocks in Myanmar. Partial budgeting was used to assess the additional costs and benefits associated with each of the two interventions tested relative to neither strategy. In the deterministic model, over the first 3 years after the introduction of the interventions, the cumulative sum of the net differences from neither strategy was 13,189Kyat for ND vaccination and 77,645Kyat for improved chick management (effective exchange rate in 2005: 1000Kyat=1$US). Both interventions were also profitable after discounting over a 10-year period; Net Present Values for ND vaccination and improved chick management were 30,791 and 167,825Kyat, respectively. The Benefit-Cost Ratio for ND vaccination was very high (28.8). This was lower for improved chick management, due to greater costs of the intervention, but still favourable at 4.7. Using both interventions concurrently yielded a Net Present Value of 470,543Kyat and a Benefit-Cost Ratio of 11.2 over the 10-year period in the deterministic model. Using the stochastic model, for the first 3 years following the introduction of the interventions, the mean cumulative sums of the net difference were similar to those values obtained from the deterministic model. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the cumulative net differences were strongly influenced by grower bird sale income, particularly under improved chick management. The effects of the strategies on odds of households selling and consuming birds after 7 months, and numbers of birds being sold or consumed after this period also influenced profitability. Cost variations for equipment used under improved chick management were not markedly associated with profitability. Net Present Values and Benefit-Cost Ratios discounted over a 10-year period were also similar to the deterministic model when mean values obtained through stochastic modelling were used. In summary, the study showed that ND vaccination and improved chick management can improve the viability and profitability of village chicken production in Myanmar. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Estimating the epidemic threshold on networks by deterministic connections

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Kezan, E-mail: lkzzr@sohu.com; Zhu, Guanghu; Fu, Xinchu

2014-12-15

For many epidemic networks some connections between nodes are treated as deterministic, while the remainder are random and have different connection probabilities. By applying spectral analysis to several constructed models, we find that one can estimate the epidemic thresholds of these networks by investigating information from only the deterministic connections. Nonetheless, in these models, generic nonuniform stochastic connections and heterogeneous community structure are also considered. The estimation of epidemic thresholds is achieved via inequalities with upper and lower bounds, which are found to be in very good agreement with numerical simulations. Since these deterministic connections are easier to detect thanmore » those stochastic connections, this work provides a feasible and effective method to estimate the epidemic thresholds in real epidemic networks.« less
Experimental demonstration on the deterministic quantum key distribution based on entangled photons.

PubMed

Chen, Hua; Zhou, Zhi-Yuan; Zangana, Alaa Jabbar Jumaah; Yin, Zhen-Qiang; Wu, Juan; Han, Yun-Guang; Wang, Shuang; Li, Hong-Wei; He, De-Yong; Tawfeeq, Shelan Khasro; Shi, Bao-Sen; Guo, Guang-Can; Chen, Wei; Han, Zheng-Fu

2016-02-10

As an important resource, entanglement light source has been used in developing quantum information technologies, such as quantum key distribution(QKD). There are few experiments implementing entanglement-based deterministic QKD protocols since the security of existing protocols may be compromised in lossy channels. In this work, we report on a loss-tolerant deterministic QKD experiment which follows a modified "Ping-Pong"(PP) protocol. The experiment results demonstrate for the first time that a secure deterministic QKD session can be fulfilled in a channel with an optical loss of 9 dB, based on a telecom-band entangled photon source. This exhibits a conceivable prospect of ultilizing entanglement light source in real-life fiber-based quantum communications.
Experimental demonstration on the deterministic quantum key distribution based on entangled photons

PubMed Central

Chen, Hua; Zhou, Zhi-Yuan; Zangana, Alaa Jabbar Jumaah; Yin, Zhen-Qiang; Wu, Juan; Han, Yun-Guang; Wang, Shuang; Li, Hong-Wei; He, De-Yong; Tawfeeq, Shelan Khasro; Shi, Bao-Sen; Guo, Guang-Can; Chen, Wei; Han, Zheng-Fu

2016-01-01

As an important resource, entanglement light source has been used in developing quantum information technologies, such as quantum key distribution(QKD). There are few experiments implementing entanglement-based deterministic QKD protocols since the security of existing protocols may be compromised in lossy channels. In this work, we report on a loss-tolerant deterministic QKD experiment which follows a modified “Ping-Pong”(PP) protocol. The experiment results demonstrate for the first time that a secure deterministic QKD session can be fulfilled in a channel with an optical loss of 9 dB, based on a telecom-band entangled photon source. This exhibits a conceivable prospect of ultilizing entanglement light source in real-life fiber-based quantum communications. PMID:26860582

Location of coating defects and assessment of level of cathodic protection on underground pipelines using AC impedance, deterministic and non-deterministic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castaneda-Lopez, Homero

A methodology for detecting and locating defects or discontinuities on the outside covering of coated metal underground pipelines subjected to cathodic protection has been addressed. On the basis of wide range AC impedance signals for various frequencies applied to a steel-coated pipeline system and by measuring its corresponding transfer function under several laboratory simulation scenarios, a physical laboratory setup of an underground cathodic-protected, coated pipeline was built. This model included different variables and elements that exist under real conditions, such as soil resistivity, soil chemical composition, defect (holiday) location in the pipeline covering, defect area and geometry, and level of cathodic protection. The AC impedance data obtained under different working conditions were used to fit an electrical transmission line model. This model was then used as a tool to fit the impedance signal for different experimental conditions and to establish trends in the impedance behavior without the necessity of further experimental work. However, due to the chaotic nature of the transfer function response of this system under several conditions, it is believed that non-deterministic models based on pattern recognition algorithms are suitable for field condition analysis. A non-deterministic approach was used for experimental analysis by applying an artificial neural network (ANN) algorithm based on classification analysis capable of studying the pipeline system and differentiating the variables that can change impedance conditions. These variables include level of cathodic protection, location of discontinuities (holidays), and severity of corrosion. This work demonstrated a proof-of-concept for a well-known technique and a novel algorithm capable of classifying impedance data for experimental results to predict the exact location of the active holidays and defects on the buried pipelines. Laboratory findings from this procedure are promising, and efforts to develop it for field conditions should continue.
Stochastic Analysis and Probabilistic Downscaling of Soil Moisture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deshon, J. P.; Niemann, J. D.; Green, T. R.; Jones, A. S.

2017-12-01

Soil moisture is a key variable for rainfall-runoff response estimation, ecological and biogeochemical flux estimation, and biodiversity characterization, each of which is useful for watershed condition assessment. These applications require not only accurate, fine-resolution soil-moisture estimates but also confidence limits on those estimates and soil-moisture patterns that exhibit realistic statistical properties (e.g., variance and spatial correlation structure). The Equilibrium Moisture from Topography, Vegetation, and Soil (EMT+VS) model downscales coarse-resolution (9-40 km) soil moisture from satellite remote sensing or land-surface models to produce fine-resolution (10-30 m) estimates. The model was designed to produce accurate deterministic soil-moisture estimates at multiple points, but the resulting patterns do not reproduce the variance or spatial correlation of observed soil-moisture patterns. The primary objective of this research is to generalize the EMT+VS model to produce a probability density function (pdf) for soil moisture at each fine-resolution location and time. Each pdf has a mean that is equal to the deterministic soil-moisture estimate, and the pdf can be used to quantify the uncertainty in the soil-moisture estimates and to simulate soil-moisture patterns. Different versions of the generalized model are hypothesized based on how uncertainty enters the model, whether the uncertainty is additive or multiplicative, and which distributions describe the uncertainty. These versions are then tested by application to four catchments with detailed soil-moisture observations (Tarrawarra, Satellite Station, Cache la Poudre, and Nerrigundah). The performance of the generalized models is evaluated by comparing the statistical properties of the simulated soil-moisture patterns to those of the observations and the deterministic EMT+VS model. The versions of the generalized EMT+VS model with normally distributed stochastic components produce soil-moisture patterns with more realistic statistical properties than the deterministic model. Additionally, the results suggest that the variance and spatial correlation of the stochastic soil-moisture variations do not vary consistently with the spatial-average soil moisture.
Application Agreement and Integration Services

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Driscoll, Kevin R.; Hall, Brendan; Schweiker, Kevin

2013-01-01

Application agreement and integration services are required by distributed, fault-tolerant, safety critical systems to assure required performance. An analysis of distributed and hierarchical agreement strategies are developed against the backdrop of observed agreement failures in fielded systems. The documented work was performed under NASA Task Order NNL10AB32T, Validation And Verification of Safety-Critical Integrated Distributed Systems Area 2. This document is intended to satisfy the requirements for deliverable 5.2.11 under Task 4.2.2.3. This report discusses the challenges of maintaining application agreement and integration services. A literature search is presented that documents previous work in the area of replica determinism. Sources of non-deterministic behavior are identified and examples are presented where system level agreement failed to be achieved. We then explore how TTEthernet services can be extended to supply some interesting application agreement frameworks. This document assumes that the reader is familiar with the TTEthernet protocol. The reader is advised to read the TTEthernet protocol standard [1] before reading this document. This document does not re-iterate the content of the standard.
Characterization of normality of chaotic systems including prediction and detection of anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engler, Joseph John

Accurate prediction and control pervades domains such as engineering, physics, chemistry, and biology. Often, it is discovered that the systems under consideration cannot be well represented by linear, periodic nor random data. It has been shown that these systems exhibit deterministic chaos behavior. Deterministic chaos describes systems which are governed by deterministic rules but whose data appear to be random or quasi-periodic distributions. Deterministically chaotic systems characteristically exhibit sensitive dependence upon initial conditions manifested through rapid divergence of states initially close to one another. Due to this characterization, it has been deemed impossible to accurately predict future states of these systems for longer time scales. Fortunately, the deterministic nature of these systems allows for accurate short term predictions, given the dynamics of the system are well understood. This fact has been exploited in the research community and has resulted in various algorithms for short term predictions. Detection of normality in deterministically chaotic systems is critical in understanding the system sufficiently to able to predict future states. Due to the sensitivity to initial conditions, the detection of normal operational states for a deterministically chaotic system can be challenging. The addition of small perturbations to the system, which may result in bifurcation of the normal states, further complicates the problem. The detection of anomalies and prediction of future states of the chaotic system allows for greater understanding of these systems. The goal of this research is to produce methodologies for determining states of normality for deterministically chaotic systems, detection of anomalous behavior, and the more accurate prediction of future states of the system. Additionally, the ability to detect subtle system state changes is discussed. The dissertation addresses these goals by proposing new representational techniques and novel prediction methodologies. The value and efficiency of these methods are explored in various case studies. Presented is an overview of chaotic systems with examples taken from the real world. A representation schema for rapid understanding of the various states of deterministically chaotic systems is presented. This schema is then used to detect anomalies and system state changes. Additionally, a novel prediction methodology which utilizes Lyapunov exponents to facilitate longer term prediction accuracy is presented and compared with other nonlinear prediction methodologies. These novel methodologies are then demonstrated on applications such as wind energy, cyber security and classification of social networks.
Inferring Fitness Effects from Time-Resolved Sequence Data with a Delay-Deterministic Model.

PubMed

Nené, Nuno R; Dunham, Alistair S; Illingworth, Christopher J R

2018-05-01

A common challenge arising from the observation of an evolutionary system over time is to infer the magnitude of selection acting upon a specific genetic variant, or variants, within the population. The inference of selection may be confounded by the effects of genetic drift in a system, leading to the development of inference procedures to account for these effects. However, recent work has suggested that deterministic models of evolution may be effective in capturing the effects of selection even under complex models of demography, suggesting the more general application of deterministic approaches to inference. Responding to this literature, we here note a case in which a deterministic model of evolution may give highly misleading inferences, resulting from the nondeterministic properties of mutation in a finite population. We propose an alternative approach that acts to correct for this error, and which we denote the delay-deterministic model. Applying our model to a simple evolutionary system, we demonstrate its performance in quantifying the extent of selection acting within that system. We further consider the application of our model to sequence data from an evolutionary experiment. We outline scenarios in which our model may produce improved results for the inference of selection, noting that such situations can be easily identified via the use of a regular deterministic model. Copyright © 2018 Nené et al.
Controllability of Deterministic Networks with the Identical Degree Sequence

PubMed Central

Ma, Xiujuan; Zhao, Haixing; Wang, Binghong

2015-01-01

Controlling complex network is an essential problem in network science and engineering. Recent advances indicate that the controllability of complex network is dependent on the network's topology. Liu and Barabási, et.al speculated that the degree distribution was one of the most important factors affecting controllability for arbitrary complex directed network with random link weights. In this paper, we analysed the effect of degree distribution to the controllability for the deterministic networks with unweighted and undirected. We introduce a class of deterministic networks with identical degree sequence, called (x,y)-flower. We analysed controllability of the two deterministic networks ((1, 3)-flower and (2, 2)-flower) by exact controllability theory in detail and give accurate results of the minimum number of driver nodes for the two networks. In simulation, we compare the controllability of (x,y)-flower networks. Our results show that the family of (x,y)-flower networks have the same degree sequence, but their controllability is totally different. So the degree distribution itself is not sufficient to characterize the controllability of deterministic networks with unweighted and undirected. PMID:26020920
Inverse kinematic problem for a random gradient medium in geometric optics approximation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petersen, N. V.

1990-03-01

Scattering at random inhomogeneities in a gradient medium results in systematic deviations of the rays and travel times of refracted body waves from those corresponding to the deterministic velocity component. The character of the difference depends on the parameters of the deterministic and random velocity component. However, at great distances to the source, independently of the velocity parameters (weakly or strongly inhomogeneous medium), the most probable depth of the ray turning point is smaller than that corresponding to the deterministic velocity component, the most probable travel times also being lower. The relative uncertainty in the deterministic velocity component, derived from the mean travel times using methods developed for laterally homogeneous media (for instance, the Herglotz-Wiechert method), is systematic in character, but does not exceed the contrast of velocity inhomogeneities by magnitude. The gradient of the deterministic velocity component has a significant effect on the travel-time fluctuations. The variance at great distances to the source is mainly controlled by shallow inhomogeneities. The travel-time flucutations are studied only for weakly inhomogeneous media.
Effect of Uncertainty on Deterministic Runway Scheduling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gupta, Gautam; Malik, Waqar; Jung, Yoon C.

2012-01-01

Active runway scheduling involves scheduling departures for takeoffs and arrivals for runway crossing subject to numerous constraints. This paper evaluates the effect of uncertainty on a deterministic runway scheduler. The evaluation is done against a first-come- first-serve scheme. In particular, the sequence from a deterministic scheduler is frozen and the times adjusted to satisfy all separation criteria; this approach is tested against FCFS. The comparison is done for both system performance (throughput and system delay) and predictability, and varying levels of congestion are considered. The modeling of uncertainty is done in two ways: as equal uncertainty in availability at the runway as for all aircraft, and as increasing uncertainty for later aircraft. Results indicate that the deterministic approach consistently performs better than first-come-first-serve in both system performance and predictability.
Numerical Approach to Spatial Deterministic-Stochastic Models Arising in Cell Biology.

PubMed

Schaff, James C; Gao, Fei; Li, Ye; Novak, Igor L; Slepchenko, Boris M

2016-12-01

Hybrid deterministic-stochastic methods provide an efficient alternative to a fully stochastic treatment of models which include components with disparate levels of stochasticity. However, general-purpose hybrid solvers for spatially resolved simulations of reaction-diffusion systems are not widely available. Here we describe fundamentals of a general-purpose spatial hybrid method. The method generates realizations of a spatially inhomogeneous hybrid system by appropriately integrating capabilities of a deterministic partial differential equation solver with a popular particle-based stochastic simulator, Smoldyn. Rigorous validation of the algorithm is detailed, using a simple model of calcium 'sparks' as a testbed. The solver is then applied to a deterministic-stochastic model of spontaneous emergence of cell polarity. The approach is general enough to be implemented within biologist-friendly software frameworks such as Virtual Cell.
Deterministically estimated fission source distributions for Monte Carlo k-eigenvalue problems

DOE PAGES

Biondo, Elliott D.; Davidson, Gregory G.; Pandya, Tara M.; ...

2018-04-30

The standard Monte Carlo (MC) k-eigenvalue algorithm involves iteratively converging the fission source distribution using a series of potentially time-consuming inactive cycles before quantities of interest can be tallied. One strategy for reducing the computational time requirements of these inactive cycles is the Sourcerer method, in which a deterministic eigenvalue calculation is performed to obtain an improved initial guess for the fission source distribution. This method has been implemented in the Exnihilo software suite within SCALE using the SPNSPN or SNSN solvers in Denovo and the Shift MC code. The efficacy of this method is assessed with different Denovo solutionmore » parameters for a series of typical k-eigenvalue problems including small criticality benchmarks, full-core reactors, and a fuel cask. Here it is found that, in most cases, when a large number of histories per cycle are required to obtain a detailed flux distribution, the Sourcerer method can be used to reduce the computational time requirements of the inactive cycles.« less
Prediction of the Arctic Oscillation in Boreal Winter by Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kang, Daehyun; Lee, Myong-In; Im, Jungho; Kim, Daehyun; Kim, Hye-Mi; Kang, Hyun-Suk; Shubert, Siegfried D.; Arriba, Albertom; MacLachlan, Craig

2013-01-01

This study assesses the prediction skill of the boreal winter Arctic Oscillation (AO) in the state-of-the-art dynamical ensemble prediction systems (EPSs): the UKMO GloSea4, the NCEP CFSv2, and the NASA GEOS-5. Long-term reforecasts made with the EPSs are used to evaluate representations of the AO, and to examine skill scores for the deterministic and probabilistic forecast of the AO index. The reforecasts reproduce the observed changes in the large-scale patterns of the Northern Hemispheric surface temperature, upper-level wind, and precipitation according to the AO phase. Results demonstrate that all EPSs have better prediction skill than the persistence prediction for lead times up to 3-month, suggesting a great potential for skillful prediction of the AO and the associated climate anomalies in seasonal time scale. It is also found that the deterministic and probabilistic forecast skill of the AO in the recent period (1997-2010) is higher than that in the earlier period (1983-1996).
Hydro-economic assessment of hydrological forecasting systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boucher, M.-A.; Tremblay, D.; Delorme, L.; Perreault, L.; Anctil, F.

2012-01-01

SummaryAn increasing number of publications show that ensemble hydrological forecasts exhibit good performance when compared to observed streamflow. Many studies also conclude that ensemble forecasts lead to a better performance than deterministic ones. This investigation takes one step further by not only comparing ensemble and deterministic forecasts to observed values, but by employing the forecasts in a stochastic decision-making assistance tool for hydroelectricity production, during a flood event on the Gatineau River in Canada. This allows the comparison between different types of forecasts according to their value in terms of energy, spillage and storage in a reservoir. The motivation for this is to adopt the point of view of an end-user, here a hydroelectricity production society. We show that ensemble forecasts exhibit excellent performances when compared to observations and are also satisfying when involved in operation management for electricity production. Further improvement in terms of productivity can be reached through the use of a simple post-processing method.
Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM) III: Scenario analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huisman, J.A.; Breuer, L.; Bormann, H.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B.F.W.; Frede, H.-G.; Graff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Jakeman, A.J.; Kite, G.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Lindstrom, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Viney, N.R.; Willems, P.

2009-01-01

An ensemble of 10 hydrological models was applied to the same set of land use change scenarios. There was general agreement about the direction of changes in the mean annual discharge and 90% discharge percentile predicted by the ensemble members, although a considerable range in the magnitude of predictions for the scenarios and catchments under consideration was obvious. Differences in the magnitude of the increase were attributed to the different mean annual actual evapotranspiration rates for each land use type. The ensemble of model runs was further analyzed with deterministic and probabilistic ensemble methods. The deterministic ensemble method based on a trimmed mean resulted in a single somewhat more reliable scenario prediction. The probabilistic reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method allowed a quantification of the model structure uncertainty in the scenario predictions. It was concluded that the use of a model ensemble has greatly increased our confidence in the reliability of the model predictions. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.
Fisher-Wright model with deterministic seed bank and selection.

PubMed

Koopmann, Bendix; Müller, Johannes; Tellier, Aurélien; Živković, Daniel

2017-04-01

Seed banks are common characteristics to many plant species, which allow storage of genetic diversity in the soil as dormant seeds for various periods of time. We investigate an above-ground population following a Fisher-Wright model with selection coupled with a deterministic seed bank assuming the length of the seed bank is kept constant and the number of seeds is large. To assess the combined impact of seed banks and selection on genetic diversity, we derive a general diffusion model. The applied techniques outline a path of approximating a stochastic delay differential equation by an appropriately rescaled stochastic differential equation. We compute the equilibrium solution of the site-frequency spectrum and derive the times to fixation of an allele with and without selection. Finally, it is demonstrated that seed banks enhance the effect of selection onto the site-frequency spectrum while slowing down the time until the mutation-selection equilibrium is reached. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Deterministically estimated fission source distributions for Monte Carlo k-eigenvalue problems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Biondo, Elliott D.; Davidson, Gregory G.; Pandya, Tara M.

The standard Monte Carlo (MC) k-eigenvalue algorithm involves iteratively converging the fission source distribution using a series of potentially time-consuming inactive cycles before quantities of interest can be tallied. One strategy for reducing the computational time requirements of these inactive cycles is the Sourcerer method, in which a deterministic eigenvalue calculation is performed to obtain an improved initial guess for the fission source distribution. This method has been implemented in the Exnihilo software suite within SCALE using the SPNSPN or SNSN solvers in Denovo and the Shift MC code. The efficacy of this method is assessed with different Denovo solutionmore » parameters for a series of typical k-eigenvalue problems including small criticality benchmarks, full-core reactors, and a fuel cask. Here it is found that, in most cases, when a large number of histories per cycle are required to obtain a detailed flux distribution, the Sourcerer method can be used to reduce the computational time requirements of the inactive cycles.« less
Automated Calibration For Numerical Models Of Riverflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez, Betsaida; Kopmann, Rebekka; Oladyshkin, Sergey

2017-04-01

Calibration of numerical models is fundamental since the beginning of all types of hydro system modeling, to approximate the parameters that can mimic the overall system behavior. Thus, an assessment of different deterministic and stochastic optimization methods is undertaken to compare their robustness, computational feasibility, and global search capacity. Also, the uncertainty of the most suitable methods is analyzed. These optimization methods minimize the objective function that comprises synthetic measurements and simulated data. Synthetic measurement data replace the observed data set to guarantee an existing parameter solution. The input data for the objective function derivate from a hydro-morphological dynamics numerical model which represents an 180-degree bend channel. The hydro- morphological numerical model shows a high level of ill-posedness in the mathematical problem. The minimization of the objective function by different candidate methods for optimization indicates a failure in some of the gradient-based methods as Newton Conjugated and BFGS. Others reveal partial convergence, such as Nelder-Mead, Polak und Ribieri, L-BFGS-B, Truncated Newton Conjugated, and Trust-Region Newton Conjugated Gradient. Further ones indicate parameter solutions that range outside the physical limits, such as Levenberg-Marquardt and LeastSquareRoot. Moreover, there is a significant computational demand for genetic optimization methods, such as Differential Evolution and Basin-Hopping, as well as for Brute Force methods. The Deterministic Sequential Least Square Programming and the scholastic Bayes Inference theory methods present the optimal optimization results. keywords: Automated calibration of hydro-morphological dynamic numerical model, Bayesian inference theory, deterministic optimization methods.
Finite element modelling of woven composite failure modes at the mesoscopic scale: deterministic versus stochastic approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roirand, Q.; Missoum-Benziane, D.; Thionnet, A.; Laiarinandrasana, L.

2017-09-01

Textile composites are composed of 3D complex architecture. To assess the durability of such engineering structures, the failure mechanisms must be highlighted. Examinations of the degradation have been carried out thanks to tomography. The present work addresses a numerical damage model dedicated to the simulation of the crack initiation and propagation at the scale of the warp yarns. For the 3D woven composites under study, loadings in tension and combined tension and bending were considered. Based on an erosion procedure of broken elements, the failure mechanisms have been modelled on 3D periodic cells by finite element calculations. The breakage of one element was determined using a failure criterion at the mesoscopic scale based on the yarn stress at failure. The results were found to be in good agreement with the experimental data for the two kinds of macroscopic loadings. The deterministic approach assumed a homogeneously distributed stress at failure all over the integration points in the meshes of woven composites. A stochastic approach was applied to a simple representative elementary periodic cell. The distribution of the Weibull stress at failure was assigned to the integration points using a Monte Carlo simulation. It was shown that this stochastic approach allowed more realistic failure simulations avoiding the idealised symmetry due to the deterministic modelling. In particular, the stochastic simulations performed have shown several variations of the stress as well as strain at failure and the failure modes of the yarn.
Community assembly of a euryhaline fish microbiome during salinity acclimation.

PubMed

Schmidt, Victor T; Smith, Katherine F; Melvin, Donald W; Amaral-Zettler, Linda A

2015-05-01

Microbiomes play a critical role in promoting a range of host functions. Microbiome function, in turn, is dependent on its community composition. Yet, how microbiome taxa are assembled from their regional species pool remains unclear. Many possible drivers have been hypothesized, including deterministic processes of competition, stochastic processes of colonization and migration, and physiological 'host-effect' habitat filters. The contribution of each to assembly in nascent or perturbed microbiomes is important for understanding host-microbe interactions and host health. In this study, we characterized the bacterial communities in a euryhaline fish and the surrounding tank water during salinity acclimation. To assess the relative influence of stochastic versus deterministic processes in fish microbiome assembly, we manipulated the bacterial species pool around each fish by changing the salinity of aquarium water. Our results show a complete and repeatable turnover of dominant bacterial taxa in the microbiomes from individuals of the same species after acclimation to the same salinity. We show that changes in fish microbiomes are not correlated with corresponding changes to abundant taxa in tank water communities and that the dominant taxa in fish microbiomes are rare in the aquatic surroundings, and vice versa. Our results suggest that bacterial taxa best able to compete within the unique host environment at a given salinity appropriate the most niche space, independent of their relative abundance in tank water communities. In this experiment, deterministic processes appear to drive fish microbiome assembly, with little evidence for stochastic colonization. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
The effects of demand uncertainty on strategic gaming in the merit-order electricity pool market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frem, Bassam

In a merit-order electricity pool market, generating companies (Gencos) game with their offered incremental cost to meet the electricity demand and earn bigger market shares and higher profits. However when the demand is treated as a random variable instead of as a known constant, these Genco gaming strategies become more complex. After a brief introduction of electricity markets and gaming, the effects of demand uncertainty on strategic gaming are studied in two parts: (1) Demand modelled as a discrete random variable (2) Demand modelled as a continuous random variable. In the first part, we proposed an algorithm, the discrete stochastic strategy (DSS) algorithm that generates a strategic set of offers from the perspective of the Gencos' profits. The DSS offers were tested and compared to the deterministic Nash equilibrium (NE) offers based on the predicted demand. This comparison, based on the expected Genco profits, showed the DSS to be a better strategy in a probabilistic sense than the deterministic NE. In the second part, we presented three gaming strategies: (1) Deterministic NE (2) No-Risk (3) Risk-Taking. The strategies were then tested and their profit performances were compared using two assessment tools: (a) Expected value and standard deviation (b) Inverse cumulative distribution. We concluded that despite yielding higher profit performance under the right conjectures, Risk-Taking strategies are very sensitive to incorrect conjectures on the competitors' gaming decisions. As such, despite its lower profit performance, the No-Risk strategy was deemed preferable.
New Criterion and Tool for Caltrans Seismic Hazard Characterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shantz, T.; Merriam, M.; Turner, L.; Chiou, B.; Liu, X.

2008-12-01

Caltrans recently adopted new procedures for the development of response spectra for structure design. These procedures incorporate both deterministic and probabilistic criteria. The Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) models (2008) are used for deterministic assessment (using a revised late-Quaternary age fault database), and the USGS 2008 5% in 50-year hazard maps are used for probabilistic assessment. A minimum deterministic spectrum based on a M6.5 earthquake at 12 km is also included. These spectra are enveloped and the largest values used. A new publicly available web-based design tool for calculating the design spectrum will be used for calculations. The tool is built on a Windows-Apache-MySQL-PHP (WAMP) platform and integrates GoogleMaps for increased flexibility in the tool's use. Links to Caltrans data such as pre-construction logs of test borings assist in the estimation of Vs30 values used in the new procedures. Basin effects based on new models developed for the CFM, for the San Francisco Bay area by the USGS, and by Thurber (2008) are also incorporated. It is anticipated that additional layers such as CGS Seismic Hazard Zone maps will be added in the future. Application of the new criterion will result in expected higher levels of ground motion at many bridges west of the Coast Ranges. In eastern California, use of the NGA relationships for strike-slip faulting (the dominant sense of motion in California) will often result in slightly lower expected values for bridges. The expected result is a more realistic prediction of ground motions at bridges, in keeping with those motions developed for other large-scale and important structures. The tool is based on a simplified fault map of California, so it will not be used for more detailed evaluations such as surface rupture determination. Announcements regarding tool availability (expected to be in early 2009) are at http://www.dot.ca.gov/research/index.htm

Diagnostic Assessment of the Difficulty Using Direct Policy Search in Many-Objective Reservoir Control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zatarain-Salazar, J.; Reed, P. M.; Herman, J. D.; Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.

2014-12-01

Globally reservoir operations provide fundamental services to water supply, energy generation, recreation, and ecosystems. The pressures of expanding populations, climate change, and increased energy demands are motivating a significant investment in re-operationalizing existing reservoirs or defining operations for new reservoirs. Recent work has highlighted the potential benefits of exploiting recent advances in many-objective optimization and direct policy search (DPS) to aid in addressing these systems' multi-sector demand tradeoffs. This study contributes to a comprehensive diagnostic assessment of multi-objective evolutionary optimization algorithms (MOEAs) efficiency, effectiveness, reliability, and controllability when supporting DPS for the Conowingo dam in the Lower Susquehanna River Basin. The Lower Susquehanna River is an interstate water body that has been subject to intensive water management efforts due to the system's competing demands from urban water supply, atomic power plant cooling, hydropower production, and federally regulated environmental flows. Seven benchmark and state-of-the-art MOEAs are tested on deterministic and stochastic instances of the Susquehanna test case. In the deterministic formulation, the operating objectives are evaluated over the historical realization of the hydroclimatic variables (i.e., inflows and evaporation rates). In the stochastic formulation, the same objectives are instead evaluated over an ensemble of stochastic inflows and evaporation rates realizations. The algorithms are evaluated in their ability to support DPS in discovering reservoir operations that compose the tradeoffs for six multi-sector performance objectives with thirty-two decision variables. Our diagnostic results highlight that many-objective DPS is very challenging for modern MOEAs and that epsilon dominance is critical for attaining high levels of performance. Epsilon dominance algorithms epsilon-MOEA, epsilon-NSGAII and the auto adaptive Borg MOEA, are statistically superior for the six-objective Susquehanna instance of this important class of problems. Additionally, shifting from deterministic history-based DPS to stochastic DPS significantly increases the difficulty of the problem.
Efficient room-temperature source of polarized single photons

DOEpatents

Lukishova, Svetlana G.; Boyd, Robert W.; Stroud, Carlos R.

2007-08-07

An efficient technique for producing deterministically polarized single photons uses liquid-crystal hosts of either monomeric or oligomeric/polymeric form to preferentially align the single emitters for maximum excitation efficiency. Deterministic molecular alignment also provides deterministically polarized output photons; using planar-aligned cholesteric liquid crystal hosts as 1-D photonic-band-gap microcavities tunable to the emitter fluorescence band to increase source efficiency, using liquid crystal technology to prevent emitter bleaching. Emitters comprise soluble dyes, inorganic nanocrystals or trivalent rare-earth chelates.
CRAX/Cassandra Reliability Analysis Software

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robinson, D.

1999-02-10

Over the past few years Sandia National Laboratories has been moving toward an increased dependence on model- or physics-based analyses as a means to assess the impact of long-term storage on the nuclear weapons stockpile. These deterministic models have also been used to evaluate replacements for aging systems, often involving commercial off-the-shelf components (COTS). In addition, the models have been used to assess the performance of replacement components manufactured via unique, small-lot production runs. In either case, the limited amount of available test data dictates that the only logical course of action to characterize the reliability of these components ismore » to specifically consider the uncertainties in material properties, operating environment etc. within the physics-based (deterministic) model. This not only provides the ability to statistically characterize the expected performance of the component or system, but also provides direction regarding the benefits of additional testing on specific components within the system. An effort was therefore initiated to evaluate the capabilities of existing probabilistic methods and, if required, to develop new analysis methods to support the inclusion of uncertainty in the classical design tools used by analysts and design engineers at Sandia. The primary result of this effort is the CMX (Cassandra Exoskeleton) reliability analysis software.« less
Trend assessment: applications for hydrology and climate research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kallache, M.; Rust, H. W.; Kropp, J.

2005-02-01

The assessment of trends in climatology and hydrology still is a matter of debate. Capturing typical properties of time series, like trends, is highly relevant for the discussion of potential impacts of global warming or flood occurrences. It provides indicators for the separation of anthropogenic signals and natural forcing factors by distinguishing between deterministic trends and stochastic variability. In this contribution river run-off data from gauges in Southern Germany are analysed regarding their trend behaviour by combining a deterministic trend component and a stochastic model part in a semi-parametric approach. In this way the trade-off between trend and autocorrelation structure can be considered explicitly. A test for a significant trend is introduced via three steps: First, a stochastic fractional ARIMA model, which is able to reproduce short-term as well as long-term correlations, is fitted to the empirical data. In a second step, wavelet analysis is used to separate the variability of small and large time-scales assuming that the trend component is part of the latter. Finally, a comparison of the overall variability to that restricted to small scales results in a test for a trend. The extraction of the large-scale behaviour by wavelet analysis provides a clue concerning the shape of the trend.
What Do People Find Incompatible With Causal Determinism?

PubMed

Bear, Adam; Knobe, Joshua

2016-11-01

Four studies explored people's judgments about whether particular types of behavior are compatible with determinism. Participants read a passage describing a deterministic universe, in which everything that happens is fully caused by whatever happened before it. They then assessed the degree to which different behaviors were possible in such a universe. Other participants evaluated the extent to which each of these behaviors had various features (e.g., requiring reasoning). We assessed the extent to which these features predicted judgments about whether the behaviors were possible in a deterministic universe. Experiments 1 and 2 found that people's judgments about whether a behavior was compatible with determinism were not predicted by their judgments about whether that behavior relies on physical processes in the brain and body, is uniquely human, is unpredictable, or involves reasoning. Experiment 3, however, found that a distinction between what we call "active" and "passive" behaviors can explain people's judgments. Experiment 4 extended these findings, showing that we can measure this distinction in several ways and that it is robustly predicted by two different cues. Taken together, these results suggest that people carve up mentally guided behavior into two distinct types-understanding one type to be compatible with determinism, but another type to be fundamentally incompatible with determinism. Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.
Multiprocessor shared-memory information exchange

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Santoline, L.L.; Bowers, M.D.; Crew, A.W.

1989-02-01

In distributed microprocessor-based instrumentation and control systems, the inter-and intra-subsystem communication requirements ultimately form the basis for the overall system architecture. This paper describes a software protocol which addresses the intra-subsystem communications problem. Specifically the protocol allows for multiple processors to exchange information via a shared-memory interface. The authors primary goal is to provide a reliable means for information to be exchanged between central application processor boards (masters) and dedicated function processor boards (slaves) in a single computer chassis. The resultant Multiprocessor Shared-Memory Information Exchange (MSMIE) protocol, a standard master-slave shared-memory interface suitable for use in nuclear safety systems, ismore » designed to pass unidirectional buffers of information between the processors while providing a minimum, deterministic cycle time for this data exchange.« less
Nanotransfer and nanoreplication using deterministically grown sacrificial nanotemplates

DOEpatents

Melechko, Anatoli V [Oak Ridge, TN; McKnight, Timothy E [Greenback, TN; Guillorn, Michael A [Ithaca, NY; Ilic, Bojan [Ithaca, NY; Merkulov, Vladimir I [Knoxville, TN; Doktycz, Mitchel J [Knoxville, TN; Lowndes, Douglas H [Knoxville, TN; Simpson, Michael L [Knoxville, TN

2011-08-23

Methods, manufactures, machines and compositions are described for nanotransfer and nanoreplication using deterministically grown sacrificial nanotemplates. An apparatus, includes a substrate and a nanoreplicant structure coupled to a surface of the substrate.
Climatology and Predictability of Cool-Season High Wind Events in the New York City Metropolitan and Surrounding Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Layer, Michael

Damaging wind events not associated with severe convective storms or tropical cyclones can occur over the Northeast U.S. during the cool season and can cause significant problems with transportation, infrastructure, and public safety. These non-convective wind events (NCWEs) events are difficult for operational forecasters to predict in the NYC region as revealed by relatively poor verification statistics in recent years. This study investigates the climatology of NCWEs occurring between 15 September and 15 May over 13 seasons from 2000-2001 through 2012-2013. The events are broken down into three distinct types commonly observed in the region: pre-cold frontal (PRF), post-cold frontal (POF), and nor'easter/coastal storm (NEC) cases. Relationships between observed winds and some atmospheric parameters such as 900 hPa height gradient, 3-hour MSLP tendency, low-level wind profile, and stability are also studied. Overall, PRF and NEC events exhibit stronger height gradients, stronger low-level winds, and stronger low-level stability than POF events. Model verification is also conducted over the 2009-2014 time period using the Short Range Ensemble Forecast system (SREF) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Both deterministic and probabilistic verification metrics are used to evaluate the performance of the ensemble during NCWEs. Although the SREF has better forecast skill than most of the deterministic SREF control members, it is rather poorly calibrated, and exhibits a significant overforecasting, or positive wind speed bias in the lower atmosphere.
Deterministic transfection drives efficient nonviral reprogramming and uncovers reprogramming barriers.

PubMed

Gallego-Perez, Daniel; Otero, Jose J; Czeisler, Catherine; Ma, Junyu; Ortiz, Cristina; Gygli, Patrick; Catacutan, Fay Patsy; Gokozan, Hamza Numan; Cowgill, Aaron; Sherwood, Thomas; Ghatak, Subhadip; Malkoc, Veysi; Zhao, Xi; Liao, Wei-Ching; Gnyawali, Surya; Wang, Xinmei; Adler, Andrew F; Leong, Kam; Wulff, Brian; Wilgus, Traci A; Askwith, Candice; Khanna, Savita; Rink, Cameron; Sen, Chandan K; Lee, L James

2016-02-01

Safety concerns and/or the stochastic nature of current transduction approaches have hampered nuclear reprogramming's clinical translation. We report a novel non-viral nanotechnology-based platform permitting deterministic large-scale transfection with single-cell resolution. The superior capabilities of our technology are demonstrated by modification of the well-established direct neuronal reprogramming paradigm using overexpression of the transcription factors Brn2, Ascl1, and Myt1l (BAM). Reprogramming efficiencies were comparable to viral methodologies (up to ~9-12%) without the constraints of capsid size and with the ability to control plasmid dosage, in addition to showing superior performance relative to existing non-viral methods. Furthermore, increased neuronal complexity could be tailored by varying BAM ratio and by including additional proneural genes to the BAM cocktail. Furthermore, high-throughput NEP allowed easy interrogation of the reprogramming process. We discovered that BAM-mediated reprogramming is regulated by AsclI dosage, the S-phase cyclin CCNA2, and that some induced neurons passed through a nestin-positive cell stage. In the field of regenerative medicine, the ability to direct cell fate by nuclear reprogramming is an important facet in terms of clinical application. In this article, the authors described their novel technique of cell reprogramming through overexpression of the transcription factors Brn2, Ascl1, and Myt1l (BAM) by in situ electroporation through nanochannels. This new technique could provide a platform for further future designs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Numerical Approach to Spatial Deterministic-Stochastic Models Arising in Cell Biology

PubMed Central

Gao, Fei; Li, Ye; Novak, Igor L.; Slepchenko, Boris M.

2016-01-01

Hybrid deterministic-stochastic methods provide an efficient alternative to a fully stochastic treatment of models which include components with disparate levels of stochasticity. However, general-purpose hybrid solvers for spatially resolved simulations of reaction-diffusion systems are not widely available. Here we describe fundamentals of a general-purpose spatial hybrid method. The method generates realizations of a spatially inhomogeneous hybrid system by appropriately integrating capabilities of a deterministic partial differential equation solver with a popular particle-based stochastic simulator, Smoldyn. Rigorous validation of the algorithm is detailed, using a simple model of calcium ‘sparks’ as a testbed. The solver is then applied to a deterministic-stochastic model of spontaneous emergence of cell polarity. The approach is general enough to be implemented within biologist-friendly software frameworks such as Virtual Cell. PMID:27959915
Stochasticity and determinism in models of hematopoiesis.

PubMed

Kimmel, Marek

2014-01-01

This chapter represents a novel view of modeling in hematopoiesis, synthesizing both deterministic and stochastic approaches. Whereas the stochastic models work in situations where chance dominates, for example when the number of cells is small, or under random mutations, the deterministic models are more important for large-scale, normal hematopoiesis. New types of models are on the horizon. These models attempt to account for distributed environments such as hematopoietic niches and their impact on dynamics. Mixed effects of such structures and chance events are largely unknown and constitute both a challenge and promise for modeling. Our discussion is presented under the separate headings of deterministic and stochastic modeling; however, the connections between both are frequently mentioned. Four case studies are included to elucidate important examples. We also include a primer of deterministic and stochastic dynamics for the reader's use.
Hybrid deterministic/stochastic simulation of complex biochemical systems.

PubMed

Lecca, Paola; Bagagiolo, Fabio; Scarpa, Marina

2017-11-21

In a biological cell, cellular functions and the genetic regulatory apparatus are implemented and controlled by complex networks of chemical reactions involving genes, proteins, and enzymes. Accurate computational models are indispensable means for understanding the mechanisms behind the evolution of a complex system, not always explored with wet lab experiments. To serve their purpose, computational models, however, should be able to describe and simulate the complexity of a biological system in many of its aspects. Moreover, it should be implemented by efficient algorithms requiring the shortest possible execution time, to avoid enlarging excessively the time elapsing between data analysis and any subsequent experiment. Besides the features of their topological structure, the complexity of biological networks also refers to their dynamics, that is often non-linear and stiff. The stiffness is due to the presence of molecular species whose abundance fluctuates by many orders of magnitude. A fully stochastic simulation of a stiff system is computationally time-expensive. On the other hand, continuous models are less costly, but they fail to capture the stochastic behaviour of small populations of molecular species. We introduce a new efficient hybrid stochastic-deterministic computational model and the software tool MoBioS (MOlecular Biology Simulator) implementing it. The mathematical model of MoBioS uses continuous differential equations to describe the deterministic reactions and a Gillespie-like algorithm to describe the stochastic ones. Unlike the majority of current hybrid methods, the MoBioS algorithm divides the reactions' set into fast reactions, moderate reactions, and slow reactions and implements a hysteresis switching between the stochastic model and the deterministic model. Fast reactions are approximated as continuous-deterministic processes and modelled by deterministic rate equations. Moderate reactions are those whose reaction waiting time is greater than the fast reaction waiting time but smaller than the slow reaction waiting time. A moderate reaction is approximated as a stochastic (deterministic) process if it was classified as a stochastic (deterministic) process at the time at which it crosses the threshold of low (high) waiting time. A Gillespie First Reaction Method is implemented to select and execute the slow reactions. The performances of MoBios were tested on a typical example of hybrid dynamics: that is the DNA transcription regulation. The simulated dynamic profile of the reagents' abundance and the estimate of the error introduced by the fully deterministic approach were used to evaluate the consistency of the computational model and that of the software tool.
Design optimization and uncertainty quantification for aeromechanics forced response of a turbomachinery blade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Modgil, Girish A.

Gas turbine engines for aerospace applications have evolved dramatically over the last 50 years through the constant pursuit for better specific fuel consumption, higher thrust-to-weight ratio, lower noise and emissions all while maintaining reliability and affordability. An important step in enabling these improvements is a forced response aeromechanics analysis involving structural dynamics and aerodynamics of the turbine. It is well documented that forced response vibration is a very critical problem in aircraft engine design, causing High Cycle Fatigue (HCF). Pushing the envelope on engine design has led to increased forced response problems and subsequently an increased risk of HCF failure. Forced response analysis is used to assess design feasibility of turbine blades for HCF using a material limit boundary set by the Goodman Diagram envelope that combines the effects of steady and vibratory stresses. Forced response analysis is computationally expensive, time consuming and requires multi-domain experts to finalize a result. As a consequence, high-fidelity aeromechanics analysis is performed deterministically and is usually done at the end of the blade design process when it is very costly to make significant changes to geometry or aerodynamic design. To address uncertainties in the system (engine operating point, temperature distribution, mistuning, etc.) and variability in material properties, designers apply conservative safety factors in the traditional deterministic approach, which leads to bulky designs. Moreover, using a deterministic approach does not provide a calculated risk of HCF failure. This thesis describes a process that begins with the optimal aerodynamic design of a turbomachinery blade developed using surrogate models of high-fidelity analyses. The resulting optimal blade undergoes probabilistic evaluation to generate aeromechanics results that provide a calculated likelihood of failure from HCF. An existing Rolls-Royce High Work Single Stage (HWSS) turbine blisk provides a baseline to demonstrate the process. The generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) toolbox which was developed includes sampling methods and constructs polynomial approximations. The toolbox provides not only the means for uncertainty quantification of the final blade design, but also facilitates construction of the surrogate models used for the blade optimization. This paper shows that gPC , with a small number of samples, achieves very fast rates of convergence and high accuracy in describing probability distributions without loss of detail in the tails . First, an optimization problem maximizes stage efficiency using turbine aerodynamic design rules as constraints; the function evaluations for this optimization are surrogate models from detailed 3D steady Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analyses. The resulting optimal shape provides a starting point for the 3D high-fidelity aeromechanics (unsteady CFD and 3D Finite Element Analysis (FEA)) UQ study assuming three uncertain input parameters. This investigation seeks to find the steady and vibratory stresses associated with the first torsion mode for the HWSS turbine blisk near maximum operating speed of the engine. Using gPC to provide uncertainty estimates of the steady and vibratory stresses enables the creation of a Probabilistic Goodman Diagram, which - to the authors' best knowledge - is the first of its kind using high fidelity aeromechanics for turbomachinery blades. The Probabilistic Goodman Diagram enables turbine blade designers to make more informed design decisions and it allows the aeromechanics expert to assess quantitatively the risk associated with HCF for any mode crossing based on high fidelity simulations.
Pro Free Will Priming Enhances “Risk-Taking” Behavior in the Iowa Gambling Task, but Not in the Balloon Analogue Risk Task: Two Independent Priming Studies

PubMed Central

Schrag, Yann; Tremea, Alessandro; Lagger, Cyril; Ohana, Noé; Mohr, Christine

2016-01-01

Studies indicated that people behave less responsibly after exposure to information containing deterministic statements as compared to free will statements or neutral statements. Thus, deterministic primes should lead to enhanced risk-taking behavior. We tested this prediction in two studies with healthy participants. In experiment 1, we tested 144 students (24 men) in the laboratory using the Iowa Gambling Task. In experiment 2, we tested 274 participants (104 men) online using the Balloon Analogue Risk Task. In the Iowa Gambling Task, the free will priming condition resulted in more risky decisions than both the deterministic and neutral priming conditions. We observed no priming effects on risk-taking behavior in the Balloon Analogue Risk Task. To explain these unpredicted findings, we consider the somatic marker hypothesis, a gain frequency approach as well as attention to gains and / or inattention to losses. In addition, we highlight the necessity to consider both pro free will and deterministic priming conditions in future studies. Importantly, our and previous results indicate that the effects of pro free will and deterministic priming do not oppose each other on a frequently assumed continuum. PMID:27018854
Pro Free Will Priming Enhances "Risk-Taking" Behavior in the Iowa Gambling Task, but Not in the Balloon Analogue Risk Task: Two Independent Priming Studies.

PubMed

Schrag, Yann; Tremea, Alessandro; Lagger, Cyril; Ohana, Noé; Mohr, Christine

2016-01-01

Studies indicated that people behave less responsibly after exposure to information containing deterministic statements as compared to free will statements or neutral statements. Thus, deterministic primes should lead to enhanced risk-taking behavior. We tested this prediction in two studies with healthy participants. In experiment 1, we tested 144 students (24 men) in the laboratory using the Iowa Gambling Task. In experiment 2, we tested 274 participants (104 men) online using the Balloon Analogue Risk Task. In the Iowa Gambling Task, the free will priming condition resulted in more risky decisions than both the deterministic and neutral priming conditions. We observed no priming effects on risk-taking behavior in the Balloon Analogue Risk Task. To explain these unpredicted findings, we consider the somatic marker hypothesis, a gain frequency approach as well as attention to gains and / or inattention to losses. In addition, we highlight the necessity to consider both pro free will and deterministic priming conditions in future studies. Importantly, our and previous results indicate that the effects of pro free will and deterministic priming do not oppose each other on a frequently assumed continuum.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coleman, Justin; Slaughter, Andrew; Veeraraghavan, Swetha

Multi-hazard Analysis for STOchastic time-DOmaiN phenomena (MASTODON) is a finite element application that aims at analyzing the response of 3-D soil-structure systems to natural and man-made hazards such as earthquakes, floods and fire. MASTODON currently focuses on the simulation of seismic events and has the capability to perform extensive ‘source-to-site’ simulations including earthquake fault rupture, nonlinear wave propagation and nonlinear soil-structure interaction (NLSSI) analysis. MASTODON is being developed to be a dynamic probabilistic risk assessment framework that enables analysts to not only perform deterministic analyses, but also easily perform probabilistic or stochastic simulations for the purpose of risk assessment.
Incorporating GIS and remote sensing for census population disaggregation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Shuo-Sheng'derek'

Census data are the primary source of demographic data for a variety of researches and applications. For confidentiality issues and administrative purposes, census data are usually released to the public by aggregated areal units. In the United States, the smallest census unit is census blocks. Due to data aggregation, users of census data may have problems in visualizing population distribution within census blocks and estimating population counts for areas not coinciding with census block boundaries. The main purpose of this study is to develop methodology for estimating sub-block areal populations and assessing the estimation errors. The City of Austin, Texas was used as a case study area. Based on tax parcel boundaries and parcel attributes derived from ancillary GIS and remote sensing data, detailed urban land use classes were first classified using a per-field approach. After that, statistical models by land use classes were built to infer population density from other predictor variables, including four census demographic statistics (the Hispanic percentage, the married percentage, the unemployment rate, and per capita income) and three physical variables derived from remote sensing images and building footprints vector data (a landscape heterogeneity statistics, a building pattern statistics, and a building volume statistics). In addition to statistical models, deterministic models were proposed to directly infer populations from building volumes and three housing statistics, including the average space per housing unit, the housing unit occupancy rate, and the average household size. After population models were derived or proposed, how well the models predict populations for another set of sample blocks was assessed. The results show that deterministic models were more accurate than statistical models. Further, by simulating the base unit for modeling from aggregating blocks, I assessed how well the deterministic models estimate sub-unit-level populations. I also assessed the aggregation effects and the resealing effects on sub-unit estimates. Lastly, from another set of mixed-land-use sample blocks, a mixed-land-use model was derived and compared with a residential-land-use model. The results of per-field land use classification are satisfactory with a Kappa accuracy statistics of 0.747. Model Assessments by land use show that population estimates for multi-family land use areas have higher errors than those for single-family land use areas, and population estimates for mixed land use areas have higher errors than those for residential land use areas. The assessments of sub-unit estimates using a simulation approach indicate that smaller areas show higher estimation errors, estimation errors do not relate to the base unit size, and resealing improves all levels of sub-unit estimates.
Aggregate exposure approaches for parabens in personal care products: a case assessment for children between 0 and 3 years old

PubMed Central

Gosens, Ilse; Delmaar, Christiaan J E; ter Burg, Wouter; de Heer, Cees; Schuur, A Gerlienke

2014-01-01

In the risk assessment of chemical substances, aggregation of exposure to a substance from different sources via different pathways is not common practice. Focusing the exposure assessment on a substance from a single source can lead to a significant underestimation of the risk. To gain more insight on how to perform an aggregate exposure assessment, we applied a deterministic (tier 1) and a person-oriented probabilistic approach (tier 2) for exposure to the four most common parabens through personal care products in children between 0 and 3 years old. Following a deterministic approach, a worst-case exposure estimate is calculated for methyl-, ethyl-, propyl- and butylparaben. As an illustration for risk assessment, Margins of Exposure (MoE) are calculated. These are 991 and 4966 for methyl- and ethylparaben, and 8 and 10 for propyl- and butylparaben, respectively. In tier 2, more detailed information on product use has been obtained from a small survey on product use of consumers. A probabilistic exposure assessment is performed to estimate the variability and uncertainty of exposure in a population. Results show that the internal exposure for each paraben is below the level determined in tier 1. However, for propyl- and butylparaben, the percentile of the population with an exposure probability above the assumed “safe” MoE of 100, is 13% and 7%, respectively. In conclusion, a tier 1 approach can be performed using simple equations and default point estimates, and serves as a starting point for exposure and risk assessment. If refinement is warranted, the more data demanding person-oriented probabilistic approach should be used. This probabilistic approach results in a more realistic exposure estimate, including the uncertainty, and allows determining the main drivers of exposure. Furthermore, it allows to estimate the percentage of the population for which the exposure is likely to be above a specific value. PMID:23801276
Ion implantation for deterministic single atom devices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pacheco, J. L.; Singh, M.; Perry, D. L.; Wendt, J. R.; Ten Eyck, G.; Manginell, R. P.; Pluym, T.; Luhman, D. R.; Lilly, M. P.; Carroll, M. S.; Bielejec, E.

2017-12-01

We demonstrate a capability of deterministic doping at the single atom level using a combination of direct write focused ion beam and solid-state ion detectors. The focused ion beam system can position a single ion to within 35 nm of a targeted location and the detection system is sensitive to single low energy heavy ions. This platform can be used to deterministically fabricate single atom devices in materials where the nanostructure and ion detectors can be integrated, including donor-based qubits in Si and color centers in diamond.
Counterfactual Quantum Deterministic Key Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Sheng; Wang, Jian; Tang, Chao-Jing

2013-01-01

We propose a new counterfactual quantum cryptography protocol concerning about distributing a deterministic key. By adding a controlled blocking operation module to the original protocol [T.G. Noh, Phys. Rev. Lett. 103 (2009) 230501], the correlation between the polarizations of the two parties, Alice and Bob, is extended, therefore, one can distribute both deterministic keys and random ones using our protocol. We have also given a simple proof of the security of our protocol using the technique we ever applied to the original protocol. Most importantly, our analysis produces a bound tighter than the existing ones.

Ion implantation for deterministic single atom devices

DOE PAGES

Pacheco, J. L.; Singh, M.; Perry, D. L.; ...

2017-12-04

Here, we demonstrate a capability of deterministic doping at the single atom level using a combination of direct write focused ion beam and solid-state ion detectors. The focused ion beam system can position a single ion to within 35 nm of a targeted location and the detection system is sensitive to single low energy heavy ions. This platform can be used to deterministically fabricate single atom devices in materials where the nanostructure and ion detectors can be integrated, including donor-based qubits in Si and color centers in diamond.
Deterministic quantum splitter based on time-reversed Hong-Ou-Mandel interference

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Jun; Lee, Kim Fook; Kumar, Prem

2007-09-15

By utilizing a fiber-based indistinguishable photon-pair source in the 1.55 {mu}m telecommunications band [J. Chen et al., Opt. Lett. 31, 2798 (2006)], we present the first, to the best of our knowledge, deterministic quantum splitter based on the principle of time-reversed Hong-Ou-Mandel quantum interference. The deterministically separated identical photons' indistinguishability is then verified by using a conventional Hong-Ou-Mandel quantum interference, which exhibits a near-unity dip visibility of 94{+-}1%, making this quantum splitter useful for various quantum information processing applications.
Offshore safety case approach and formal safety assessment of ships.

PubMed

Wang, J

2002-01-01

Tragic marine and offshore accidents have caused serious consequences including loss of lives, loss of property, and damage of the environment. A proactive, risk-based "goal setting" regime is introduced to the marine and offshore industries to increase the level of safety. To maximize marine and offshore safety, risks need to be modeled and safety-based decisions need to be made in a logical and confident way. Risk modeling and decision-making tools need to be developed and applied in a practical environment. This paper describes both the offshore safety case approach and formal safety assessment of ships in detail with particular reference to the design aspects. The current practices and the latest development in safety assessment in both the marine and offshore industries are described. The relationship between the offshore safety case approach and formal ship safety assessment is described and discussed. Three examples are used to demonstrate both the offshore safety case approach and formal ship safety assessment. The study of risk criteria in marine and offshore safety assessment is carried out. The recommendations on further work required are given. This paper gives safety engineers in the marine and offshore industries an overview of the offshore safety case approach and formal ship safety assessment. The significance of moving toward a risk-based "goal setting" regime is given.
Changing contributions of stochastic and deterministic processes in community assembly over a successional gradient.

PubMed

Måren, Inger Elisabeth; Kapfer, Jutta; Aarrestad, Per Arild; Grytnes, John-Arvid; Vandvik, Vigdis

2018-01-01

Successional dynamics in plant community assembly may result from both deterministic and stochastic ecological processes. The relative importance of different ecological processes is expected to vary over the successional sequence, between different plant functional groups, and with the disturbance levels and land-use management regimes of the successional systems. We evaluate the relative importance of stochastic and deterministic processes in bryophyte and vascular plant community assembly after fire in grazed and ungrazed anthropogenic coastal heathlands in Northern Europe. A replicated series of post-fire successions (n = 12) were initiated under grazed and ungrazed conditions, and vegetation data were recorded in permanent plots over 13 years. We used redundancy analysis (RDA) to test for deterministic successional patterns in species composition repeated across the replicate successional series and analyses of co-occurrence to evaluate to what extent species respond synchronously along the successional gradient. Change in species co-occurrences over succession indicates stochastic successional dynamics at the species level (i.e., species equivalence), whereas constancy in co-occurrence indicates deterministic dynamics (successional niche differentiation). The RDA shows high and deterministic vascular plant community compositional change, especially early in succession. Co-occurrence analyses indicate stochastic species-level dynamics the first two years, which then give way to more deterministic replacements. Grazed and ungrazed successions are similar, but the early stage stochasticity is higher in ungrazed areas. Bryophyte communities in ungrazed successions resemble vascular plant communities. In contrast, bryophytes in grazed successions showed consistently high stochasticity and low determinism in both community composition and species co-occurrence. In conclusion, stochastic and individualistic species responses early in succession give way to more niche-driven dynamics in later successional stages. Grazing reduces predictability in both successional trends and species-level dynamics, especially in plant functional groups that are not well adapted to disturbance. © 2017 The Authors. Ecology, published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc., on behalf of the Ecological Society of America.
Introduction to “Global tsunami science: Past and future, Volume I”

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.; Fritz, Hermann; Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Tanioka, Yuichiro

2016-01-01

Twenty-five papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume I of the PAGEOPH topical issue “Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future”. Six papers examine various aspects of tsunami probability and uncertainty analysis related to hazard assessment. Three papers relate to deterministic hazard and risk assessment. Five more papers present new methods for tsunami warning and detection. Six papers describe new methods for modeling tsunami hydrodynamics. Two papers investigate tsunamis generated by non-seismic sources: landslides and meteorological disturbances. The final three papers describe important case studies of recent and historical events. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami research, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation.
Introduction to "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future, Volume I"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geist, Eric L.; Fritz, Hermann M.; Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Tanioka, Yuichiro

2016-12-01

Twenty-five papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume I of the PAGEOPH topical issue "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future". Six papers examine various aspects of tsunami probability and uncertainty analysis related to hazard assessment. Three papers relate to deterministic hazard and risk assessment. Five more papers present new methods for tsunami warning and detection. Six papers describe new methods for modeling tsunami hydrodynamics. Two papers investigate tsunamis generated by non-seismic sources: landslides and meteorological disturbances. The final three papers describe important case studies of recent and historical events. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami research, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation.
Deterministic multidimensional nonuniform gap sampling.

PubMed

Worley, Bradley; Powers, Robert

2015-12-01

Born from empirical observations in nonuniformly sampled multidimensional NMR data relating to gaps between sampled points, the Poisson-gap sampling method has enjoyed widespread use in biomolecular NMR. While the majority of nonuniform sampling schemes are fully randomly drawn from probability densities that vary over a Nyquist grid, the Poisson-gap scheme employs constrained random deviates to minimize the gaps between sampled grid points. We describe a deterministic gap sampling method, based on the average behavior of Poisson-gap sampling, which performs comparably to its random counterpart with the additional benefit of completely deterministic behavior. We also introduce a general algorithm for multidimensional nonuniform sampling based on a gap equation, and apply it to yield a deterministic sampling scheme that combines burst-mode sampling features with those of Poisson-gap schemes. Finally, we derive a relationship between stochastic gap equations and the expectation value of their sampling probability densities. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
A Comparison of Probabilistic and Deterministic Campaign Analysis for Human Space Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Merrill, R. Gabe; Andraschko, Mark; Stromgren, Chel; Cirillo, Bill; Earle, Kevin; Goodliff, Kandyce

2008-01-01

Human space exploration is by its very nature an uncertain endeavor. Vehicle reliability, technology development risk, budgetary uncertainty, and launch uncertainty all contribute to stochasticity in an exploration scenario. However, traditional strategic analysis has been done in a deterministic manner, analyzing and optimizing the performance of a series of planned missions. History has shown that exploration scenarios rarely follow such a planned schedule. This paper describes a methodology to integrate deterministic and probabilistic analysis of scenarios in support of human space exploration. Probabilistic strategic analysis is used to simulate "possible" scenario outcomes, based upon the likelihood of occurrence of certain events and a set of pre-determined contingency rules. The results of the probabilistic analysis are compared to the nominal results from the deterministic analysis to evaluate the robustness of the scenario to adverse events and to test and optimize contingency planning.
Apparatus for fixing latency

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hall, David R; Bartholomew, David B; Moon, Justin

2009-09-08

An apparatus for fixing computational latency within a deterministic region on a network comprises a network interface modem, a high priority module and at least one deterministic peripheral device. The network interface modem is in communication with the network. The high priority module is in communication with the network interface modem. The at least one deterministic peripheral device is connected to the high priority module. The high priority module comprises a packet assembler/disassembler, and hardware for performing at least one operation. Also disclosed is an apparatus for executing at least one instruction on a downhole device within a deterministic region,more » the apparatus comprising a control device, a downhole network, and a downhole device. The control device is near the surface of a downhole tool string. The downhole network is integrated into the tool string. The downhole device is in communication with the downhole network.« less
Stochastic Petri Net extension of a yeast cell cycle model.

PubMed

Mura, Ivan; Csikász-Nagy, Attila

2008-10-21

This paper presents the definition, solution and validation of a stochastic model of the budding yeast cell cycle, based on Stochastic Petri Nets (SPN). A specific family of SPNs is selected for building a stochastic version of a well-established deterministic model. We describe the procedure followed in defining the SPN model from the deterministic ODE model, a procedure that can be largely automated. The validation of the SPN model is conducted with respect to both the results provided by the deterministic one and the experimental results available from literature. The SPN model catches the behavior of the wild type budding yeast cells and a variety of mutants. We show that the stochastic model matches some characteristics of budding yeast cells that cannot be found with the deterministic model. The SPN model fine-tunes the simulation results, enriching the breadth and the quality of its outcome.
Effect of sample volume on metastable zone width and induction time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kubota, Noriaki

2012-04-01

The metastable zone width (MSZW) and the induction time, measured for a large sample (say>0.1 L) are reproducible and deterministic, while, for a small sample (say<1 mL), these values are irreproducible and stochastic. Such behaviors of MSZW and induction time were theoretically discussed both with stochastic and deterministic models. Equations for the distribution of stochastic MSZW and induction time were derived. The average values of stochastic MSZW and induction time both decreased with an increase in sample volume, while, the deterministic MSZW and induction time remained unchanged. Such different behaviors with variation in sample volume were explained in terms of detection sensitivity of crystallization events. The average values of MSZW and induction time in the stochastic model were compared with the deterministic MSZW and induction time, respectively. Literature data reported for paracetamol aqueous solution were explained theoretically with the presented models.
Fencing network direct memory access data transfers in a parallel active messaging interface of a parallel computer

DOEpatents

Blocksome, Michael A.; Mamidala, Amith R.

2015-07-07

Fencing direct memory access (`DMA`) data transfers in a parallel active messaging interface (`PAMI`) of a parallel computer, the PAMI including data communications endpoints, each endpoint including specifications of a client, a context, and a task, the endpoints coupled for data communications through the PAMI and through DMA controllers operatively coupled to a deterministic data communications network through which the DMA controllers deliver data communications deterministically, including initiating execution through the PAMI of an ordered sequence of active DMA instructions for DMA data transfers between two endpoints, effecting deterministic DMA data transfers through a DMA controller and the deterministic data communications network; and executing through the PAMI, with no FENCE accounting for DMA data transfers, an active FENCE instruction, the FENCE instruction completing execution only after completion of all DMA instructions initiated prior to execution of the FENCE instruction for DMA data transfers between the two endpoints.
Fencing network direct memory access data transfers in a parallel active messaging interface of a parallel computer

DOEpatents

Blocksome, Michael A.; Mamidala, Amith R.

2015-07-14

Fencing direct memory access (`DMA`) data transfers in a parallel active messaging interface (`PAMI`) of a parallel computer, the PAMI including data communications endpoints, each endpoint including specifications of a client, a context, and a task, the endpoints coupled for data communications through the PAMI and through DMA controllers operatively coupled to a deterministic data communications network through which the DMA controllers deliver data communications deterministically, including initiating execution through the PAMI of an ordered sequence of active DMA instructions for DMA data transfers between two endpoints, effecting deterministic DMA data transfers through a DMA controller and the deterministic data communications network; and executing through the PAMI, with no FENCE accounting for DMA data transfers, an active FENCE instruction, the FENCE instruction completing execution only after completion of all DMA instructions initiated prior to execution of the FENCE instruction for DMA data transfers between the two endpoints.
Probabilistic margin evaluation on accidental transients for the ASTRID reactor project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marquès, Michel

2014-06-01

ASTRID is a technological demonstrator of Sodium cooled Fast Reactor (SFR) under development. The conceptual design studies are being conducted in accordance with the Generation IV reactor objectives, particularly in terms of improving safety. For the hypothetical events, belonging to the accidental category "severe accident prevention situations" having a very low frequency of occurrence, the safety demonstration is no more based on a deterministic demonstration with conservative assumptions on models and parameters but on a "Best-Estimate Plus Uncertainty" (BEPU) approach. This BEPU approach ispresented in this paper for an Unprotected Loss-of-Flow (ULOF) event. The Best-Estimate (BE) analysis of this ULOFt ransient is performed with the CATHARE2 code, which is the French reference system code for SFR applications. The objective of the BEPU analysis is twofold: first evaluate the safety margin to sodium boiling in taking into account the uncertainties on the input parameters of the CATHARE2 code (twenty-two uncertain input parameters have been identified, which can be classified into five groups: reactor power, accident management, pumps characteristics, reactivity coefficients, thermal parameters and head losses); secondly quantify the contribution of each input uncertainty to the overall uncertainty of the safety margins, in order to refocusing R&D efforts on the most influential factors. This paper focuses on the methodological aspects of the evaluation of the safety margin. At least for the preliminary phase of the project (conceptual design), a probabilistic criterion has been fixed in the context of this BEPU analysis; this criterion is the value of the margin to sodium boiling, which has a probability 95% to be exceeded, obtained with a confidence level of 95% (i.e. the M5,95percentile of the margin distribution). This paper presents two methods used to assess this percentile: the Wilks method and the Bootstrap method ; the effectiveness of the two methods is compared on the basis of 500 simulations performed with theCATHARE2 code. We conclude that, with only 100 simulations performed with the CATHARE2 code, which is a number of simulations workable in the conceptual design phase of the ASTRID project where the models and the hypothesis are often modified, it is best in order to evaluate the percentile M5,95 of the margin to sodium boiling to use the bootstrap method, which will provide a slightly conservative result. On the other hand, in order to obtain an accurate estimation of the percentileM5,95, for the safety report for example, it will be necessary to perform at least 300 simulations with the CATHARE2 code. In this case, both methods (Wilks and Bootstrap) would give equivalent results.
Airline Safety Improvement Through Experience with Near-Misses: A Cautionary Tale.

PubMed

Madsen, Peter; Dillon, Robin L; Tinsley, Catherine H

2016-05-01

In recent years, the U.S. commercial airline industry has achieved unprecedented levels of safety, with the statistical risk associated with U.S. commercial aviation falling to 0.003 fatalities per 100 million passengers. But decades of research on organizational learning show that success often breeds complacency and failure inspires improvement. With accidents as rare events, can the airline industry continue safety advancements? This question is complicated by the complex system in which the industry operates where chance combinations of multiple factors contribute to what are largely probabilistic (rather than deterministic) outcomes. Thus, some apparent successes are realized because of good fortune rather than good processes, and this research intends to bring attention to these events, the near-misses. The processes that create these near-misses could pose a threat if multiple contributing factors combine in adverse ways without the intervention of good fortune. Yet, near-misses (if recognized as such) can, theoretically, offer a mechanism for continuing safety improvements, above and beyond learning gleaned from observable failure. We test whether or not this learning is apparent in the airline industry. Using data from 1990 to 2007, fixed effects Poisson regressions show that airlines learn from accidents (their own and others), and from one category of near-misses-those where the possible dangers are salient. Unfortunately, airlines do not improve following near-miss incidents when the focal event has no clear warnings of significant danger. Therefore, while airlines need to and can learn from certain near-misses, we conclude with recommendations for improving airline learning from all near-misses. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.
Realistic Simulation for Body Area and Body-To-Body Networks

PubMed Central

Alam, Muhammad Mahtab; Ben Hamida, Elyes; Ben Arbia, Dhafer; Maman, Mickael; Mani, Francesco; Denis, Benoit; D’Errico, Raffaele

2016-01-01

In this paper, we present an accurate and realistic simulation for body area networks (BAN) and body-to-body networks (BBN) using deterministic and semi-deterministic approaches. First, in the semi-deterministic approach, a real-time measurement campaign is performed, which is further characterized through statistical analysis. It is able to generate link-correlated and time-varying realistic traces (i.e., with consistent mobility patterns) for on-body and body-to-body shadowing and fading, including body orientations and rotations, by means of stochastic channel models. The full deterministic approach is particularly targeted to enhance IEEE 802.15.6 proposed channel models by introducing space and time variations (i.e., dynamic distances) through biomechanical modeling. In addition, it helps to accurately model the radio link by identifying the link types and corresponding path loss factors for line of sight (LOS) and non-line of sight (NLOS). This approach is particularly important for links that vary over time due to mobility. It is also important to add that the communication and protocol stack, including the physical (PHY), medium access control (MAC) and networking models, is developed for BAN and BBN, and the IEEE 802.15.6 compliance standard is provided as a benchmark for future research works of the community. Finally, the two approaches are compared in terms of the successful packet delivery ratio, packet delay and energy efficiency. The results show that the semi-deterministic approach is the best option; however, for the diversity of the mobility patterns and scenarios applicable, biomechanical modeling and the deterministic approach are better choices. PMID:27104537
Realistic Simulation for Body Area and Body-To-Body Networks.

PubMed

Alam, Muhammad Mahtab; Ben Hamida, Elyes; Ben Arbia, Dhafer; Maman, Mickael; Mani, Francesco; Denis, Benoit; D'Errico, Raffaele

2016-04-20

In this paper, we present an accurate and realistic simulation for body area networks (BAN) and body-to-body networks (BBN) using deterministic and semi-deterministic approaches. First, in the semi-deterministic approach, a real-time measurement campaign is performed, which is further characterized through statistical analysis. It is able to generate link-correlated and time-varying realistic traces (i.e., with consistent mobility patterns) for on-body and body-to-body shadowing and fading, including body orientations and rotations, by means of stochastic channel models. The full deterministic approach is particularly targeted to enhance IEEE 802.15.6 proposed channel models by introducing space and time variations (i.e., dynamic distances) through biomechanical modeling. In addition, it helps to accurately model the radio link by identifying the link types and corresponding path loss factors for line of sight (LOS) and non-line of sight (NLOS). This approach is particularly important for links that vary over time due to mobility. It is also important to add that the communication and protocol stack, including the physical (PHY), medium access control (MAC) and networking models, is developed for BAN and BBN, and the IEEE 802.15.6 compliance standard is provided as a benchmark for future research works of the community. Finally, the two approaches are compared in terms of the successful packet delivery ratio, packet delay and energy efficiency. The results show that the semi-deterministic approach is the best option; however, for the diversity of the mobility patterns and scenarios applicable, biomechanical modeling and the deterministic approach are better choices.
({The) Solar System Large Planets influence on a new Maunder Miniμm}

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yndestad, Harald; Solheim, Jan-Erik

2016-04-01

In 1890´s G. Spörer and E. W. Maunder (1890) reported that the solar activity stopped in a period of 70 years from 1645 to 1715. Later a reconstruction of the solar activity confirms the grand minima Maunder (1640-1720), Spörer (1390-1550), Wolf (1270-1340), and the minima Oort (1010-1070) and Dalton (1785-1810) since the year 1000 A.D. (Usoskin et al. 2007). These minimum periods have been associated with less irradiation from the Sun and cold climate periods on Earth. An identification of a three grand Maunder type periods and two Dalton type periods in a period thousand years, indicates that sooner or later there will be a colder climate on Earth from a new Maunder- or Dalton- type period. The cause of these minimum periods, are not well understood. An expected new Maunder-type period is based on the properties of solar variability. If the solar variability has a deterministic element, we can estimate better a new Maunder grand minimum. A random solar variability can only explain the past. This investigation is based on the simple idea that if the solar variability has a deterministic property, it must have a deterministic source, as a first cause. If this deterministic source is known, we can compute better estimates the next expected Maunder grand minimum period. The study is based on a TSI ACRIM data series from 1700, a TSI ACRIM data series from 1000 A.D., sunspot data series from 1611 and a Solar Barycenter orbit data series from 1000. The analysis method is based on a wavelet spectrum analysis, to identify stationary periods, coincidence periods and their phase relations. The result shows that the TSI variability and the sunspots variability have deterministic oscillations, controlled by the large planets Jupiter, Uranus and Neptune, as the first cause. A deterministic model of TSI variability and sunspot variability confirms the known minimum and grand minimum periods since 1000. From this deterministic model we may expect a new Maunder type sunspot minimum period from about 2018 to 2055. The deterministic model of a TSI ACRIM data series from 1700 computes a new Maunder type grand minimum period from 2015 to 2071. A model of the longer TSI ACRIM data series from 1000 computes a new Dalton to Maunder type minimum irradiation period from 2047 to 2068.
Modelling ecosystem service flows under uncertainty with stochiastic SPAN

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Gary W.; Snapp, Robert R.; Villa, Ferdinando; Bagstad, Kenneth J.

2012-01-01

Ecosystem service models are increasingly in demand for decision making. However, the data required to run these models are often patchy, missing, outdated, or untrustworthy. Further, communication of data and model uncertainty to decision makers is often either absent or unintuitive. In this work, we introduce a systematic approach to addressing both the data gap and the difﬁculty in communicating uncertainty through a stochastic adaptation of the Service Path Attribution Networks (SPAN) framework. The SPAN formalism assesses ecosystem services through a set of up to 16 maps, which characterize the services in a study area in terms of ﬂow pathways between ecosystems and human beneﬁciaries. Although the SPAN algorithms were originally deﬁned deterministically, we present them here in a stochastic framework which combines probabilistic input data with a stochastic transport model in order to generate probabilistic spatial outputs. This enables a novel feature among ecosystem service models: the ability to spatially visualize uncertainty in the model results. The stochastic SPAN model can analyze areas where data limitations are prohibitive for deterministic models. Greater uncertainty in the model inputs (including missing data) should lead to greater uncertainty expressed in the model’s output distributions. By using Bayesian belief networks to ﬁll data gaps and expert-provided trust assignments to augment untrustworthy or outdated information, we can account for uncertainty in input data, producing a model that is still able to run and provide information where strictly deterministic models could not. Taken together, these attributes enable more robust and intuitive modelling of ecosystem services under uncertainty.
Probabilistic versus deterministic skill in predicting the western North Pacific-East Asian summer monsoon variability with multimodel ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Xiu-Qun; Yang, Dejian; Xie, Qian; Zhang, Yaocun; Ren, Xuejuan; Tang, Youmin

2017-04-01

Based on historical forecasts of three quasi-operational multi-model ensemble (MME) systems, this study assesses the superiority of coupled MME over contributing single-model ensembles (SMEs) and over uncoupled atmospheric MME in predicting the Western North Pacific-East Asian summer monsoon variability. The probabilistic and deterministic forecast skills are measured by Brier skill score (BSS) and anomaly correlation (AC), respectively. A forecast-format dependent MME superiority over SMEs is found. The probabilistic forecast skill of the MME is always significantly better than that of each SME, while the deterministic forecast skill of the MME can be lower than that of some SMEs. The MME superiority arises from both the model diversity and the ensemble size increase in the tropics, and primarily from the ensemble size increase in the subtropics. The BSS is composed of reliability and resolution, two attributes characterizing probabilistic forecast skill. The probabilistic skill increase of the MME is dominated by the dramatic improvement in reliability, while resolution is not always improved, similar to AC. A monotonic resolution-AC relationship is further found and qualitatively explained, whereas little relationship can be identified between reliability and AC. It is argued that the MME's success in improving the reliability arises from an effective reduction of the overconfidence in forecast distributions. Moreover, it is examined that the seasonal predictions with coupled MME are more skillful than those with the uncoupled atmospheric MME forced by persisting sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, since the coupled MME has better predicted the SST anomaly evolution in three key regions.

Variability in Cell Response of Cronobacter sakazakii after Mild-Heat Treatments and Its Impact on Food Safety

PubMed Central

Parra-Flores, Julio; Juneja, Vijay; Garcia de Fernando, Gonzalo; Aguirre, Juan

2016-01-01

Cronobacter spp. have been responsible for severe infections in infants associated with consumption of powdered infant formula and follow-up formulae. Despite several risk assessments described in published studies, few approaches have considered the tremendous variability in cell response that small micropopulations or single cells can have in infant formula during storage, preparation or post process/preparation before the feeding of infants. Stochastic approaches can better describe microbial single cell response than deterministic models as we prove in this study. A large variability of lag phase was observed in single cell and micropopulations of ≤50 cells. This variability increased as the heat shock increased and growth temperature decreased. Obviously, variability of growth of individual Cronobacter sakazakii cell is affected by inoculum size, growth temperature and the probability of cells able to grow at the conditions imposed by the experimental conditions should be taken into account, especially when errors in bottle-preparation practices, such as improper holding temperatures, or manipulation, may lead to growth of the pathogen to a critical cell level. The mean probability of illness from initial inoculum size of 1 cell was below 0.2 in all the cases and for inoculum size of 50 cells the mean probability of illness, in most of the cases, was above 0.7. PMID:27148223
Deterministic approach for multiple-source tsunami hazard assessment for Sines, Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wronna, M.; Omira, R.; Baptista, M. A.

2015-11-01

In this paper, we present a deterministic approach to tsunami hazard assessment for the city and harbour of Sines, Portugal, one of the test sites of project ASTARTE (Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe). Sines has one of the most important deep-water ports, which has oil-bearing, petrochemical, liquid-bulk, coal, and container terminals. The port and its industrial infrastructures face the ocean southwest towards the main seismogenic sources. This work considers two different seismic zones: the Southwest Iberian Margin and the Gloria Fault. Within these two regions, we selected a total of six scenarios to assess the tsunami impact at the test site. The tsunami simulations are computed using NSWING, a Non-linear Shallow Water model wIth Nested Grids. In this study, the static effect of tides is analysed for three different tidal stages: MLLW (mean lower low water), MSL (mean sea level), and MHHW (mean higher high water). For each scenario, the tsunami hazard is described by maximum values of wave height, flow depth, drawback, maximum inundation area and run-up. Synthetic waveforms are computed at virtual tide gauges at specific locations outside and inside the harbour. The final results describe the impact at the Sines test site considering the single scenarios at mean sea level, the aggregate scenario, and the influence of the tide on the aggregate scenario. The results confirm the composite source of Horseshoe and Marques de Pombal faults as the worst-case scenario, with wave heights of over 10 m, which reach the coast approximately 22 min after the rupture. It dominates the aggregate scenario by about 60 % of the impact area at the test site, considering maximum wave height and maximum flow depth. The HSMPF scenario inundates a total area of 3.5 km2.
Deterministic Computer-Controlled Polishing Process for High-Energy X-Ray Optics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Khan, Gufran S.; Gubarev, Mikhail; Speegle, Chet; Ramsey, Brian

2010-01-01

A deterministic computer-controlled polishing process for large X-ray mirror mandrels is presented. Using tool s influence function and material removal rate extracted from polishing experiments, design considerations of polishing laps and optimized operating parameters are discussed
Solving difficult problems creatively: a role for energy optimised deterministic/stochastic hybrid computing

PubMed Central

Palmer, Tim N.; O’Shea, Michael

2015-01-01

How is the brain configured for creativity? What is the computational substrate for ‘eureka’ moments of insight? Here we argue that creative thinking arises ultimately from a synergy between low-energy stochastic and energy-intensive deterministic processing, and is a by-product of a nervous system whose signal-processing capability per unit of available energy has become highly energy optimised. We suggest that the stochastic component has its origin in thermal (ultimately quantum decoherent) noise affecting the activity of neurons. Without this component, deterministic computational models of the brain are incomplete. PMID:26528173
Deterministic and efficient quantum cryptography based on Bell's theorem

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen Zengbing; Pan Jianwei; Physikalisches Institut, Universitaet Heidelberg, Philosophenweg 12, 69120 Heidelberg

2006-05-15

We propose a double-entanglement-based quantum cryptography protocol that is both efficient and deterministic. The proposal uses photon pairs with entanglement both in polarization and in time degrees of freedom; each measurement in which both of the two communicating parties register a photon can establish one and only one perfect correlation, and thus deterministically create a key bit. Eavesdropping can be detected by violation of local realism. A variation of the protocol shows a higher security, similar to the six-state protocol, under individual attacks. Our scheme allows a robust implementation under the current technology.
Heart rate variability as determinism with jump stochastic parameters.

PubMed

Zheng, Jiongxuan; Skufca, Joseph D; Bollt, Erik M

2013-08-01

We use measured heart rate information (RR intervals) to develop a one-dimensional nonlinear map that describes short term deterministic behavior in the data. Our study suggests that there is a stochastic parameter with persistence which causes the heart rate and rhythm system to wander about a bifurcation point. We propose a modified circle map with a jump process noise term as a model which can qualitatively capture such this behavior of low dimensional transient determinism with occasional (stochastically defined) jumps from one deterministic system to another within a one parameter family of deterministic systems.
Deterministic bead-in-droplet ejection utilizing an integrated plug-in bead dispenser for single bead-based applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Hojin; Choi, In Ho; Lee, Sanghyun; Won, Dong-Joon; Oh, Yong Suk; Kwon, Donghoon; Sung, Hyung Jin; Jeon, Sangmin; Kim, Joonwon

2017-04-01

This paper presents a deterministic bead-in-droplet ejection (BIDE) technique that regulates the precise distribution of microbeads in an ejected droplet. The deterministic BIDE was realized through the effective integration of a microfluidic single-particle handling technique with a liquid dispensing system. The integrated bead dispenser facilitates the transfer of the desired number of beads into a dispensing volume and the on-demand ejection of bead-encapsulated droplets. Single bead-encapsulated droplets were ejected every 3 s without any failure. Multiple-bead dispensing with deterministic control of the number of beads was demonstrated to emphasize the originality and quality of the proposed dispensing technique. The dispenser was mounted using a plug-socket type connection, and the dispensing process was completely automated using a programmed sequence without any microscopic observation. To demonstrate a potential application of the technique, bead-based streptavidin-biotin binding assay in an evaporating droplet was conducted using ultralow numbers of beads. The results evidenced the number of beads in the droplet crucially influences the reliability of the assay. Therefore, the proposed deterministic bead-in-droplet technology can be utilized to deliver desired beads onto a reaction site, particularly to reliably and efficiently enrich and detect target biomolecules.
Stochastic assembly in a subtropical forest chronosequence: evidence from contrasting changes of species, phylogenetic and functional dissimilarity over succession.

PubMed

Mi, Xiangcheng; Swenson, Nathan G; Jia, Qi; Rao, Mide; Feng, Gang; Ren, Haibao; Bebber, Daniel P; Ma, Keping

2016-09-07

Deterministic and stochastic processes jointly determine the community dynamics of forest succession. However, it has been widely held in previous studies that deterministic processes dominate forest succession. Furthermore, inference of mechanisms for community assembly may be misleading if based on a single axis of diversity alone. In this study, we evaluated the relative roles of deterministic and stochastic processes along a disturbance gradient by integrating species, functional, and phylogenetic beta diversity in a subtropical forest chronosequence in Southeastern China. We found a general pattern of increasing species turnover, but little-to-no change in phylogenetic and functional turnover over succession at two spatial scales. Meanwhile, the phylogenetic and functional beta diversity were not significantly different from random expectation. This result suggested a dominance of stochastic assembly, contrary to the general expectation that deterministic processes dominate forest succession. On the other hand, we found significant interactions of environment and disturbance and limited evidence for significant deviations of phylogenetic or functional turnover from random expectations for different size classes. This result provided weak evidence of deterministic processes over succession. Stochastic assembly of forest succession suggests that post-disturbance restoration may be largely unpredictable and difficult to control in subtropical forests.
Deterministic bead-in-droplet ejection utilizing an integrated plug-in bead dispenser for single bead-based applications.

PubMed

Kim, Hojin; Choi, In Ho; Lee, Sanghyun; Won, Dong-Joon; Oh, Yong Suk; Kwon, Donghoon; Sung, Hyung Jin; Jeon, Sangmin; Kim, Joonwon

2017-04-10

This paper presents a deterministic bead-in-droplet ejection (BIDE) technique that regulates the precise distribution of microbeads in an ejected droplet. The deterministic BIDE was realized through the effective integration of a microfluidic single-particle handling technique with a liquid dispensing system. The integrated bead dispenser facilitates the transfer of the desired number of beads into a dispensing volume and the on-demand ejection of bead-encapsulated droplets. Single bead-encapsulated droplets were ejected every 3 s without any failure. Multiple-bead dispensing with deterministic control of the number of beads was demonstrated to emphasize the originality and quality of the proposed dispensing technique. The dispenser was mounted using a plug-socket type connection, and the dispensing process was completely automated using a programmed sequence without any microscopic observation. To demonstrate a potential application of the technique, bead-based streptavidin-biotin binding assay in an evaporating droplet was conducted using ultralow numbers of beads. The results evidenced the number of beads in the droplet crucially influences the reliability of the assay. Therefore, the proposed deterministic bead-in-droplet technology can be utilized to deliver desired beads onto a reaction site, particularly to reliably and efficiently enrich and detect target biomolecules.
Discrete-State Stochastic Models of Calcium-Regulated Calcium Influx and Subspace Dynamics Are Not Well-Approximated by ODEs That Neglect Concentration Fluctuations

PubMed Central

Weinberg, Seth H.; Smith, Gregory D.

2012-01-01

Cardiac myocyte calcium signaling is often modeled using deterministic ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and mass-action kinetics. However, spatially restricted “domains” associated with calcium influx are small enough (e.g., 10−17 liters) that local signaling may involve 1–100 calcium ions. Is it appropriate to model the dynamics of subspace calcium using deterministic ODEs or, alternatively, do we require stochastic descriptions that account for the fundamentally discrete nature of these local calcium signals? To address this question, we constructed a minimal Markov model of a calcium-regulated calcium channel and associated subspace. We compared the expected value of fluctuating subspace calcium concentration (a result that accounts for the small subspace volume) with the corresponding deterministic model (an approximation that assumes large system size). When subspace calcium did not regulate calcium influx, the deterministic and stochastic descriptions agreed. However, when calcium binding altered channel activity in the model, the continuous deterministic description often deviated significantly from the discrete stochastic model, unless the subspace volume is unrealistically large and/or the kinetics of the calcium binding are sufficiently fast. This principle was also demonstrated using a physiologically realistic model of calmodulin regulation of L-type calcium channels introduced by Yue and coworkers. PMID:23509597
Deterministic bead-in-droplet ejection utilizing an integrated plug-in bead dispenser for single bead–based applications

PubMed Central

Kim, Hojin; Choi, In Ho; Lee, Sanghyun; Won, Dong-Joon; Oh, Yong Suk; Kwon, Donghoon; Sung, Hyung Jin; Jeon, Sangmin; Kim, Joonwon

2017-01-01

This paper presents a deterministic bead-in-droplet ejection (BIDE) technique that regulates the precise distribution of microbeads in an ejected droplet. The deterministic BIDE was realized through the effective integration of a microfluidic single-particle handling technique with a liquid dispensing system. The integrated bead dispenser facilitates the transfer of the desired number of beads into a dispensing volume and the on-demand ejection of bead-encapsulated droplets. Single bead–encapsulated droplets were ejected every 3 s without any failure. Multiple-bead dispensing with deterministic control of the number of beads was demonstrated to emphasize the originality and quality of the proposed dispensing technique. The dispenser was mounted using a plug-socket type connection, and the dispensing process was completely automated using a programmed sequence without any microscopic observation. To demonstrate a potential application of the technique, bead-based streptavidin–biotin binding assay in an evaporating droplet was conducted using ultralow numbers of beads. The results evidenced the number of beads in the droplet crucially influences the reliability of the assay. Therefore, the proposed deterministic bead-in-droplet technology can be utilized to deliver desired beads onto a reaction site, particularly to reliably and efficiently enrich and detect target biomolecules. PMID:28393911
Mixing Single Scattering Properties in Vector Radiative Transfer for Deterministic and Stochastic Solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukherjee, L.; Zhai, P.; Hu, Y.; Winker, D. M.

2016-12-01

Among the primary factors, which determine the polarized radiation, field of a turbid medium are the single scattering properties of the medium. When multiple types of scatterers are present, the single scattering properties of the scatterers need to be properly mixed in order to find the solutions to the vector radiative transfer theory (VRT). The VRT solvers can be divided into two types: deterministic and stochastic. The deterministic solver can only accept one set of single scattering property in its smallest discretized spatial volume. When the medium contains more than one kind of scatterer, their single scattering properties are averaged, and then used as input for the deterministic solver. The stochastic solver, can work with different kinds of scatterers explicitly. In this work, two different mixing schemes are studied using the Successive Order of Scattering (SOS) method and Monte Carlo (MC) methods. One scheme is used for deterministic and the other is used for the stochastic Monte Carlo method. It is found that the solutions from the two VRT solvers using two different mixing schemes agree with each other extremely well. This confirms the equivalence to the two mixing schemes and also provides a benchmark for the VRT solution for the medium studied.
Stochastic Plume Simulations for the Fukushima Accident and the Deep Water Horizon Oil Spill

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coelho, E.; Peggion, G.; Rowley, C.; Hogan, P.

2012-04-01

The Fukushima Dai-ichi power plant suffered damage leading to radioactive contamination of coastal waters. Major issues in characterizing the extent of the affected waters were a poor knowledge of the radiation released to the coastal waters and the rather complex coastal dynamics of the region, not deterministically captured by the available prediction systems. Equivalently, during the Gulf of Mexico Deep Water Horizon oil platform accident in April 2010, significant amounts of oil and gas were released from the ocean floor. For this case, issues in mapping and predicting the extent of the affected waters in real-time were a poor knowledge of the actual amounts of oil reaching the surface and the fact that coastal dynamics over the region were not deterministically captured by the available prediction systems. To assess the ocean regions and times that were most likely affected by these accidents while capturing the above sources of uncertainty, ensembles of the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) were configured over the two regions (NE Japan and Northern Gulf of Mexico). For the Fukushima case tracers were released on each ensemble member; their locations at each instant provided reference positions of water volumes where the signature of water released from the plant could be found. For the Deep Water Horizon oil spill case each ensemble member was coupled with a diffusion-advection solution to estimate possible scenarios of oil concentrations using perturbed estimates of the released amounts as the source terms at the surface. Stochastic plumes were then defined using a Risk Assessment Code (RAC) analysis that associates a number from 1 to 5 to each grid point, determined by the likelihood of having tracer particle within short ranges (for the Fukushima case), hence defining the high risk areas and those recommended for monitoring. For the Oil Spill case the RAC codes were determined by the likelihood of reaching oil concentrations as defined in the Bonn Agreement Oil Appearance Code. The likelihoods were taken in both cases from probability distribution functions derived from the ensemble runs. Results were compared with a control-deterministic solution and checked against available reports to assess their skill in capturing the actual observed plumes and other in-situ data, as well as their relevance for planning surveys and reconnaissance flights for both cases.
Fast, Safe, Propellant-Efficient Spacecraft Motion Planning Under Clohessy-Wiltshire-Hill Dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Starek, Joseph A.; Schmerling, Edward; Maher, Gabriel D.; Barbee, Brent W.; Pavone, Marco

2016-01-01

This paper presents a sampling-based motion planning algorithm for real-time and propellant-optimized autonomous spacecraft trajectory generation in near-circular orbits. Specifically, this paper leverages recent algorithmic advances in the field of robot motion planning to the problem of impulsively actuated, propellant- optimized rendezvous and proximity operations under the Clohessy-Wiltshire-Hill dynamics model. The approach calls upon a modified version of the FMT* algorithm to grow a set of feasible trajectories over a deterministic, low-dispersion set of sample points covering the free state space. To enforce safety, the tree is only grown over the subset of actively safe samples, from which there exists a feasible one-burn collision-avoidance maneuver that can safely circularize the spacecraft orbit along its coasting arc under a given set of potential thruster failures. Key features of the proposed algorithm include 1) theoretical guarantees in terms of trajectory safety and performance, 2) amenability to real-time implementation, and 3) generality, in the sense that a large class of constraints can be handled directly. As a result, the proposed algorithm offers the potential for widespread application, ranging from on-orbit satellite servicing to orbital debris removal and autonomous inspection missions.
A system methodology for optimization design of the structural crashworthiness of a vehicle subjected to a high-speed frontal crash

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Liang; Liu, Weiguo; Lv, Xiaojiang; Gu, Xianguang

2018-04-01

The structural crashworthiness design of vehicles has become an important research direction to ensure the safety of the occupants. To effectively improve the structural safety of a vehicle in a frontal crash, a system methodology is presented in this study. The surrogate model of Online support vector regression (Online-SVR) is adopted to approximate crashworthiness criteria and different kernel functions are selected to enhance the accuracy of the model. The Online-SVR model is demonstrated to have the advantages of solving highly nonlinear problems and saving training costs, and can effectively be applied for vehicle structural crashworthiness design. By combining the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II and Monte Carlo simulation, both deterministic optimization and reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) are conducted. The optimization solutions are further validated by finite element analysis, which shows the effectiveness of the RBDO solution in the structural crashworthiness design process. The results demonstrate the advantages of using RBDO, resulting in not only increased energy absorption and decreased structural weight from a baseline design, but also a significant improvement in the reliability of the design.
Earthquake induced liquefaction hazard, probability and risk assessment in the city of Kolkata, India: its historical perspective and deterministic scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nath, Sankar Kumar; Srivastava, Nishtha; Ghatak, Chitralekha; Adhikari, Manik Das; Ghosh, Ambarish; Sinha Ray, S. P.

2018-01-01

Liquefaction-induced ground failure is one amongst the leading causes of infrastructure damage due to the impact of large earthquakes in unconsolidated, non-cohesive, water saturated alluvial terrains. The city of Kolkata is located on the potentially liquefiable alluvial fan deposits of Ganga-Bramhaputra-Meghna Delta system with subsurface litho-stratigraphic sequence comprising of varying percentages of clay, cohesionless silt, sand, and gravel interbedded with decomposed wood and peat. Additionally, the region has moderately shallow groundwater condition especially in the post-monsoon seasons. In view of burgeoning population, there had been unplanned expansion of settlements in the hazardous geological, geomorphological, and hydrological conditions exposing the city to severe liquefaction hazard. The 1897 Shillong and 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquakes both of M w 8.1 reportedly induced Modified Mercalli Intensity of IV-V and VI-VII respectively in the city reportedly triggering widespread to sporadic liquefaction condition with surface manifestation of sand boils, lateral spreading, ground subsidence, etc., thus posing a strong case for liquefaction potential analysis in the terrain. With the motivation of assessing seismic hazard, vulnerability, and risk of the city of Kolkata through a consorted federal funding stipulated for all the metros and upstart urban centers in India located in BIS seismic zones III, IV, and V with population more than one million, an attempt has been made here to understand the liquefaction susceptibility condition of Kolkata under the impact of earthquake loading employing modern multivariate techniques and also to predict deterministic liquefaction scenario of the city in the event of a probabilistic seismic hazard condition with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years and a return period of 475 years. We conducted in-depth geophysical and geotechnical investigations in the city encompassing 435 km2 area. The stochastically synthesized bedrock ground motion for both the 1897 and 1934 earthquakes on non-linear analysis of local site conditions through DEEPSOIL Geotechnical analysis package present surface level peak ground acceleration of the order of 0.05-0.14 g for the 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquake while for the 1897 Shillong earthquake it is found to be in the range of 0.03-0.11 g. The factor of safety (FOS) against liquefaction, the probability of liquefaction ( P L), the liquefaction potential index (LPI), and the liquefaction risk index are estimated under the influence of these two earthquakes wherein the city is classified into severe (LPI > 15), high (5 < LPI ≤ 15), moderate (0 < LPI ≤ 5), and non-liquefiable (LPI = 0) susceptibility zones. While the 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquake induced moderate to severe liquefaction hazard condition in the city in mostly the deltaic plain and interdistributary marsh geomorphologic units with 13.5% sites exhibiting moderate hazard with a median LPI of 1.8, 8.5% sites depicting high with a median LPI of 9.1 and 4% sites with a median LPI of 18.9 exhibiting severe hazard condition, 1897 Shillong earthquake induced mostly non-liquefaction condition with very few sites depicting moderate and high liquefaction hazard. A conservative liquefaction hazard scenario of the city on the other hand estimated through deterministic approach for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years predicts a high hazard zone in the 3.5-19 m depth region with FOS < 1 and P L > 65% comprising of coarse-grained sediments of sand, silty sand, and clayey silty sand in mostly the deltaic plain geomorphologic unit with 39.1% sites depicting severe liquefaction hazard with a median LPI of 28.3. A non-linear regression analysis on both the historical and deterministic liquefaction scenarios in P L versus LPI domain with ± 1 standard deviation confidence bound generated a cubic polynomial relationship between the two liquefaction hazard proxies. This study considered a bench mark for other cities in the country and elsewhere forms an integral part of the mega-seismic microzonation endeavors undertaken in all the earthquake-prone counties in the world.
Correlation between safety climate and contractor safety assessment programs in construction

PubMed Central

Sparer, EH1; Murphy, LA; Taylor, KM; Dennerlein, Jt

2015-01-01

Background Contractor safety assessment programs (CSAPs) measure safety performance by integrating multiple data sources together; however, the relationship between these measures of safety performance and safety climate within the construction industry is unknown. Methods 401 construction workers employed by 68 companies on 26 sites and 11 safety managers employed by 11 companies completed brief surveys containing a nine-item safety climate scale developed for the construction industry. CSAP scores from ConstructSecure, Inc., an online CSAP database, classified these 68 companies as high or low scorers, with the median score of the sample population as the threshold. Spearman rank correlations evaluated the association between the CSAP score and the safety climate score at the individual level, as well as with various grouping methodologies. In addition, Spearman correlations evaluated the comparison between manager-assessed safety climate and worker-assessed safety climate. Results There were no statistically significant differences between safety climate scores reported by workers in the high and low CSAP groups. There were, at best, weak correlations between workers’ safety climate scores and the company CSAP scores, with marginal statistical significance with two groupings of the data. There were also no significant differences between the manager-assessed safety climate and the worker-assessed safety climate scores. Conclusions A CSAP safety performance score does not appear to capture safety climate, as measured in this study. The nature of safety climate in construction is complex, which may be reflective of the challenges in measuring safety climate within this industry. PMID:24038403
Deterministic models for traffic jams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagel, Kai; Herrmann, Hans J.

1993-10-01

We study several deterministic one-dimensional traffic models. For integer positions and velocities we find the typical high and low density phases separated by a simple transition. If positions and velocities are continuous variables the model shows self-organized critically driven by the slowest car.
Seismic, high wind, tornado, and probabilistic risk assessments of the High Flux Isotope Reactor

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harris, S.P.; Stover, R.L.; Hashimoto, P.S.

1989-01-01

Natural phenomena analyses were performed on the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) Deterministic and probabilistic evaluations were made to determine the risks resulting from earthquakes, high winds, and tornadoes. Analytic methods in conjunction with field evaluations and an earthquake experience data base evaluation methods were used to provide more realistic results in a shorter amount of time. Plant modifications completed in preparation for HFIR restart and potential future enhancements are discussed. 5 figs.
Comparison of deterministic and stochastic approaches for isotopic concentration and decay heat uncertainty quantification on elementary fission pulse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lahaye, S.; Huynh, T. D.; Tsilanizara, A.

2016-03-01

Uncertainty quantification of interest outputs in nuclear fuel cycle is an important issue for nuclear safety, from nuclear facilities to long term deposits. Most of those outputs are functions of the isotopic vector density which is estimated by fuel cycle codes, such as DARWIN/PEPIN2, MENDEL, ORIGEN or FISPACT. CEA code systems DARWIN/PEPIN2 and MENDEL propagate by two different methods the uncertainty from nuclear data inputs to isotopic concentrations and decay heat. This paper shows comparisons between those two codes on a Uranium-235 thermal fission pulse. Effects of nuclear data evaluation's choice (ENDF/B-VII.1, JEFF-3.1.1 and JENDL-2011) is inspected in this paper. All results show good agreement between both codes and methods, ensuring the reliability of both approaches for a given evaluation.

NASA's Human Research Program at The Glenn Research Center: Progress and Opportunities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nall, Marsha; Griffin, DeVon; Myers, Jerry; Perusek, Gail

2008-01-01

The NASA Human Research Program is aimed at correcting problems in critical areas that place NASA human spaceflight missions at risk due to shortfalls in astronaut health, safety and performance. The Glenn Research Center (GRC) and partners from Ohio are significant contributors to this effort. This presentation describes several areas of GRC emphasis, the first being NASA s path to creating exercise hardware requirements and protocols that mitigate the effects of long duration spaceflight. Computational simulations will be a second area that is discussed. This includes deterministic models that simulate the effects of spaceflight on the human body, as well as probabilistic models that bound and quantify the probability that adverse medical incidents will happen during an exploration mission. Medical technology development for exploration will be the final area to be discussed.
Neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment in North Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mourabit, T.; Abou Elenean, K. M.; Ayadi, A.; Benouar, D.; Ben Suleman, A.; Bezzeghoud, M.; Cheddadi, A.; Chourak, M.; ElGabry, M. N.; Harbi, A.; Hfaiedh, M.; Hussein, H. M.; Kacem, J.; Ksentini, A.; Jabour, N.; Magrin, A.; Maouche, S.; Meghraoui, M.; Ousadou, F.; Panza, G. F.; Peresan, A.; Romdhane, N.; Vaccari, F.; Zuccolo, E.

2014-04-01

North Africa is one of the most earthquake-prone areas of the Mediterranean. Many devastating earthquakes, some of them tsunami-triggering, inflicted heavy loss of life and considerable economic damage to the region. In order to mitigate the destructive impact of the earthquakes, the regional seismic hazard in North Africa is assessed using the neo-deterministic, multi-scenario methodology (NDSHA) based on the computation of synthetic seismograms, using the modal summation technique, at a regular grid of 0.2 × 0.2°. This is the first study aimed at producing NDSHA maps of North Africa including five countries: Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt. The key input data for the NDSHA algorithm are earthquake sources, seismotectonic zonation, and structural models. In the preparation of the input data, it has been really important to go beyond the national borders and to adopt a coherent strategy all over the area. Thanks to the collaborative efforts of the teams involved, it has been possible to properly merge the earthquake catalogues available for each country to define with homogeneous criteria the seismogenic zones, the characteristic focal mechanism associated with each of them, and the structural models used to model wave propagation from the sources to the sites. As a result, reliable seismic hazard maps are produced in terms of maximum displacement ( D max), maximum velocity ( V max), and design ground acceleration.
Seismic Hazard Assessment for a Characteristic Earthquake Scenario: Probabilistic-Deterministic Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

mouloud, Hamidatou

2016-04-01

The objective of this paper is to analyze the seismic activity and the statistical treatment of seismicity catalog the Constantine region between 1357 and 2014 with 7007 seismic event. Our research is a contribution to improving the seismic risk management by evaluating the seismic hazard in the North-East Algeria. In the present study, Earthquake hazard maps for the Constantine region are calculated. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is classically performed through the Cornell approach by using a uniform earthquake distribution over the source area and a given magnitude range. This study aims at extending the PSHA approach to the case of a characteristic earthquake scenario associated with an active fault. The approach integrates PSHA with a high-frequency deterministic technique for the prediction of peak and spectral ground motion parameters in a characteristic earthquake. The method is based on the site-dependent evaluation of the probability of exceedance for the chosen strong-motion parameter. We proposed five sismotectonique zones. Four steps are necessary: (i) identification of potential sources of future earthquakes, (ii) assessment of their geological, geophysical and geometric, (iii) identification of the attenuation pattern of seismic motion, (iv) calculation of the hazard at a site and finally (v) hazard mapping for a region. In this study, the procedure of the earthquake hazard evaluation recently developed by Kijko and Sellevoll (1992) is used to estimate seismic hazard parameters in the northern part of Algeria.
Stochastic integrated assessment of climate tipping points indicates the need for strict climate policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lontzek, Thomas S.; Cai, Yongyang; Judd, Kenneth L.; Lenton, Timothy M.

2015-05-01

Perhaps the most `dangerous’ aspect of future climate change is the possibility that human activities will push parts of the climate system past tipping points, leading to irreversible impacts. The likelihood of such large-scale singular events is expected to increase with global warming, but is fundamentally uncertain. A key question is how should the uncertainty surrounding tipping events affect climate policy? We address this using a stochastic integrated assessment model, based on the widely used deterministic DICE model. The temperature-dependent likelihood of tipping is calibrated using expert opinions, which we find to be internally consistent. The irreversible impacts of tipping events are assumed to accumulate steadily over time (rather than instantaneously), consistent with scientific understanding. Even with conservative assumptions about the rate and impacts of a stochastic tipping event, today’s optimal carbon tax is increased by ~50%. For a plausibly rapid, high-impact tipping event, today’s optimal carbon tax is increased by >200%. The additional carbon tax to delay climate tipping grows at only about half the rate of the baseline carbon tax. This implies that the effective discount rate for the costs of stochastic climate tipping is much lower than the discount rate for deterministic climate damages. Our results support recent suggestions that the costs of carbon emission used to inform policy are being underestimated, and that uncertain future climate damages should be discounted at a low rate.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mou, J.I.; King, C.

The focus of this study is to develop a sensor fused process modeling and control methodology to model, assess, and then enhance the performance of a hexapod machine for precision product realization. Deterministic modeling technique was used to derive models for machine performance assessment and enhancement. Sensor fusion methodology was adopted to identify the parameters of the derived models. Empirical models and computational algorithms were also derived and implemented to model, assess, and then enhance the machine performance. The developed sensor fusion algorithms can be implemented on a PC-based open architecture controller to receive information from various sensors, assess themore » status of the process, determine the proper action, and deliver the command to actuators for task execution. This will enhance a hexapod machine`s capability to produce workpieces within the imposed dimensional tolerances.« less
Soil pH mediates the balance between stochastic and deterministic assembly of bacteria

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tripathi, Binu M.; Stegen, James C.; Kim, Mincheol

Little is known about the factors affecting the relative influence of stochastic and deterministic processes that governs the assembly of microbial communities in successional soils. Here, we conducted a meta-analysis of bacterial communities using six different successional soils data sets, scattered across different regions, with different pH conditions in early and late successional soils. We found that soil pH was the best predictor of bacterial community assembly and the relative importance of stochastic and deterministic processes along successional soils. Extreme acidic or alkaline pH conditions lead to assembly of phylogenetically more clustered bacterial communities through deterministic processes, whereas pH conditionsmore » close to neutral lead to phylogenetically less clustered bacterial communities with more stochasticity. We suggest that the influence of pH, rather than successional age, is the main driving force in producing trends in phylogenetic assembly of bacteria, and that pH also influences the relative balance of stochastic and deterministic processes along successional soils. Given that pH had a much stronger association with community assembly than did successional age, we evaluated whether the inferred influence of pH was maintained when studying globally-distributed samples collected without regard for successional age. This dataset confirmed the strong influence of pH, suggesting that the influence of soil pH on community assembly processes occurs globally. Extreme pH conditions likely exert more stringent limits on survival and fitness, imposing strong selective pressures through ecological and evolutionary time. Taken together, these findings suggest that the degree to which stochastic vs. deterministic processes shape soil bacterial community assembly is a consequence of soil pH rather than successional age.« less
The meta-Gaussian Bayesian Processor of forecasts and associated preliminary experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Fajing; Jiao, Meiyan; Chen, Jing

2013-04-01

Public weather services are trending toward providing users with probabilistic weather forecasts, in place of traditional deterministic forecasts. Probabilistic forecasting techniques are continually being improved to optimize available forecasting information. The Bayesian Processor of Forecast (BPF), a new statistical method for probabilistic forecast, can transform a deterministic forecast into a probabilistic forecast according to the historical statistical relationship between observations and forecasts generated by that forecasting system. This technique accounts for the typical forecasting performance of a deterministic forecasting system in quantifying the forecast uncertainty. The meta-Gaussian likelihood model is suitable for a variety of stochastic dependence structures with monotone likelihood ratios. The meta-Gaussian BPF adopting this kind of likelihood model can therefore be applied across many fields, including meteorology and hydrology. The Bayes theorem with two continuous random variables and the normal-linear BPF are briefly introduced. The meta-Gaussian BPF for a continuous predictand using a single predictor is then presented and discussed. The performance of the meta-Gaussian BPF is tested in a preliminary experiment. Control forecasts of daily surface temperature at 0000 UTC at Changsha and Wuhan stations are used as the deterministic forecast data. These control forecasts are taken from ensemble predictions with a 96-h lead time generated by the National Meteorological Center of the China Meteorological Administration, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, and the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction during January 2008. The results of the experiment show that the meta-Gaussian BPF can transform a deterministic control forecast of surface temperature from any one of the three ensemble predictions into a useful probabilistic forecast of surface temperature. These probabilistic forecasts quantify the uncertainty of the control forecast; accordingly, the performance of the probabilistic forecasts differs based on the source of the underlying deterministic control forecasts.
Deterministic Factors Overwhelm Stochastic Environmental Fluctuations as Drivers of Jellyfish Outbreaks.

PubMed

Benedetti-Cecchi, Lisandro; Canepa, Antonio; Fuentes, Veronica; Tamburello, Laura; Purcell, Jennifer E; Piraino, Stefano; Roberts, Jason; Boero, Ferdinando; Halpin, Patrick

2015-01-01

Jellyfish outbreaks are increasingly viewed as a deterministic response to escalating levels of environmental degradation and climate extremes. However, a comprehensive understanding of the influence of deterministic drivers and stochastic environmental variations favouring population renewal processes has remained elusive. This study quantifies the deterministic and stochastic components of environmental change that lead to outbreaks of the jellyfish Pelagia noctiluca in the Mediterranen Sea. Using data of jellyfish abundance collected at 241 sites along the Catalan coast from 2007 to 2010 we: (1) tested hypotheses about the influence of time-varying and spatial predictors of jellyfish outbreaks; (2) evaluated the relative importance of stochastic vs. deterministic forcing of outbreaks through the environmental bootstrap method; and (3) quantified return times of extreme events. Outbreaks were common in May and June and less likely in other summer months, which resulted in a negative relationship between outbreaks and SST. Cross- and along-shore advection by geostrophic flow were important concentrating forces of jellyfish, but most outbreaks occurred in the proximity of two canyons in the northern part of the study area. This result supported the recent hypothesis that canyons can funnel P. noctiluca blooms towards shore during upwelling. This can be a general, yet unappreciated mechanism leading to outbreaks of holoplanktonic jellyfish species. The environmental bootstrap indicated that stochastic environmental fluctuations have negligible effects on return times of outbreaks. Our analysis emphasized the importance of deterministic processes leading to jellyfish outbreaks compared to the stochastic component of environmental variation. A better understanding of how environmental drivers affect demographic and population processes in jellyfish species will increase the ability to anticipate jellyfish outbreaks in the future.
Use of Remote Sensing and Dust Modelling to Evaluate Ecosystem Phenology and Pollen Dispersal

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luvall, Jeffrey C.; Sprigg, William A.; Watts, Carol; Shaw, Patrick

2007-01-01

The impact of pollen release and downwind concentrations can be evaluated utilizing remote sensing. Previous NASA studies have addressed airborne dust prediction systems PHAiRS (Public Health Applications in Remote Sensing) which have determined that pollen forecasts and simulations are possible. By adapting the deterministic dust model (as an in-line system with the National Weather Service operational forecast model) used in PHAiRS to simulate downwind dispersal of pollen, initializing the model with pollen source regions from MODIS, assessing the results a rapid prototype concept can be produced. We will present the results of our effort to develop a deterministic model for predicting and simulating pollen emission and downwind concentration to study details or phenology and meteorology and their dependencies, and the promise of a credible real time forecast system to support public health and agricultural science and service. Previous studies have been done with PHAiRS research, the use of NASA data, the dust model and the PHAiRS potential to improve public health and environmental services long into the future.
The role of predictive uncertainty in the operational management of reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Todini, E.

2014-09-01

The present work deals with the operational management of multi-purpose reservoirs, whose optimisation-based rules are derived, in the planning phase, via deterministic (linear and nonlinear programming, dynamic programming, etc.) or via stochastic (generally stochastic dynamic programming) approaches. In operation, the resulting deterministic or stochastic optimised operating rules are then triggered based on inflow predictions. In order to fully benefit from predictions, one must avoid using them as direct inputs to the reservoirs, but rather assess the "predictive knowledge" in terms of a predictive probability density to be operationally used in the decision making process for the estimation of expected benefits and/or expected losses. Using a theoretical and extremely simplified case, it will be shown why directly using model forecasts instead of the full predictive density leads to less robust reservoir management decisions. Moreover, the effectiveness and the tangible benefits for using the entire predictive probability density instead of the model predicted values will be demonstrated on the basis of the Lake Como management system, operational since 1997, as well as on the basis of a case study on the lake of Aswan.
A Simple Downscaling Algorithm for Remotely Sensed Land Surface Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandholt, I.; Nielsen, C.; Stisen, S.

2009-05-01

The method is illustrated using a combination of MODIS NDVI data with a spatial resolution of 250m and 3 Km Meteosat Second Generation SEVIRI LST data. Geostationary Earth Observation data carry a large potential for assessment of surface state variables. Not the least the European Meteosat Second Generation platform with its SEVIRI sensor is well suited for studies of the dynamics of land surfaces due to its high temporal frequency (15 minutes) and its red, Near Infrared (NIR) channels that provides vegetation indices, and its two split window channels in the thermal infrared for assessment of Land Surface Temperature (LST). For some applications the spatial resolution in geostationary data is too coarse. Due to the low statial resolution of 4.8 km at nadir for the SEVIRI sensor, a means of providing sub pixel information is sought for. By combining and properly scaling two types of satellite images, namely data from the MODIS sensor onboard the polar orbiting platforms TERRA and AQUA and the coarse resolution MSG-SEVIRI, we exploit the best from two worlds. The vegetation index/surface temperature space has been used in a vast number of studies for assessment of air temperature, soil moisture, dryness indices, evapotranspiration and for studies of land use change. In this paper, we present an improved method to derive a finer resolution Land Surface Temperature (LST). A new, deterministic scaling method has been applied, and is compared to existing deterministic downscaling methods based on LST and NDVI. We also compare our results from in situ measurements of LST from the Dahra test site in West Africa.
Internal cycle modeling and environmental assessment of multiple cycle consumer products.

PubMed

Tsiliyannis, C A

2012-01-01

Dynamic annual flow models incorporating consumer discard and usage loss and featuring deterministic and stochastic end-of-cycle (EOC) return by the consumer are developed for reused or remanufactured products (multiple cycle products, MCPs), including fast and slow cycling, short and long-lived products. It is shown that internal flows (reuse and overall consumption) increase proportionally to the dimensionless internal cycle factor (ICF) which is related to environmental impact reduction factors. The combined reuse/recycle (or cycle) rate is shown capable for shortcut, albeit effective, monitoring of environmental performance in terms of waste production, virgin material extraction and manufacturing impacts of all MCPs, a task, which physical variables (lifetime, cycling frequency, mean or total number of return trips) and conventional rates, via which environmental policy has been officially implemented (e.g. recycling rate) cannot accomplish. The cycle rate is shown to be an increasing (hyperbolic) function of ICF. The impact of the stochastic EOC return characteristics on total reuse and consumption flows, as well as on eco-performance, is assessed: symmetric EOC return has a small, positive effect on performance compared to deterministic, while early shifted EOC return is more beneficial. In order to be efficient, environmental policy should set higher minimum reuse targets for higher trippage MCPs. The results may serve for monitoring, flow accounting and comparative eco-assessment of MCPs. They may be useful in identifying reachable and efficient reuse/recycle targets for consumer products and in planning return via appropriate labelling and digital coding for enhancing environmental performance, while satisfying consumer demand. Copyright Â© 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Cognitive Diagnostic Analysis Using Hierarchically Structured Skills

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Su, Yu-Lan

2013-01-01

This dissertation proposes two modified cognitive diagnostic models (CDMs), the deterministic, inputs, noisy, "and" gate with hierarchy (DINA-H) model and the deterministic, inputs, noisy, "or" gate with hierarchy (DINO-H) model. Both models incorporate the hierarchical structures of the cognitive skills in the model estimation…
Deterministic Mean-Field Ensemble Kalman Filtering

DOE PAGES

Law, Kody J. H.; Tembine, Hamidou; Tempone, Raul

2016-05-03

The proof of convergence of the standard ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) from Le Gland, Monbet, and Tran [Large sample asymptotics for the ensemble Kalman filter, in The Oxford Handbook of Nonlinear Filtering, Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK, 2011, pp. 598--631] is extended to non-Gaussian state-space models. In this paper, a density-based deterministic approximation of the mean-field limit EnKF (DMFEnKF) is proposed, consisting of a PDE solver and a quadrature rule. Given a certain minimal order of convergence κ between the two, this extends to the deterministic filter approximation, which is therefore asymptotically superior to standard EnKF for dimension d
Active temporal multiplexing of indistinguishable heralded single photons

PubMed Central

Xiong, C.; Zhang, X.; Liu, Z.; Collins, M. J.; Mahendra, A.; Helt, L. G.; Steel, M. J.; Choi, D. -Y.; Chae, C. J.; Leong, P. H. W.; Eggleton, B. J.

2016-01-01

It is a fundamental challenge in quantum optics to deterministically generate indistinguishable single photons through non-deterministic nonlinear optical processes, due to the intrinsic coupling of single- and multi-photon-generation probabilities in these processes. Actively multiplexing photons generated in many temporal modes can decouple these probabilities, but key issues are to minimize resource requirements to allow scalability, and to ensure indistinguishability of the generated photons. Here we demonstrate the multiplexing of photons from four temporal modes solely using fibre-integrated optics and off-the-shelf electronic components. We show a 100% enhancement to the single-photon output probability without introducing additional multi-photon noise. Photon indistinguishability is confirmed by a fourfold Hong–Ou–Mandel quantum interference with a 91±16% visibility after subtracting multi-photon noise due to high pump power. Our demonstration paves the way for scalable multiplexing of many non-deterministic photon sources to a single near-deterministic source, which will be of benefit to future quantum photonic technologies. PMID:26996317
Recent progress in the assembly of nanodevices and van der Waals heterostructures by deterministic placement of 2D materials.

PubMed

Frisenda, Riccardo; Navarro-Moratalla, Efrén; Gant, Patricia; Pérez De Lara, David; Jarillo-Herrero, Pablo; Gorbachev, Roman V; Castellanos-Gomez, Andres

2018-01-02

Designer heterostructures can now be assembled layer-by-layer with unmatched precision thanks to the recently developed deterministic placement methods to transfer two-dimensional (2D) materials. This possibility constitutes the birth of a very active research field on the so-called van der Waals heterostructures. Moreover, these deterministic placement methods also open the door to fabricate complex devices, which would be otherwise very difficult to achieve by conventional bottom-up nanofabrication approaches, and to fabricate fully-encapsulated devices with exquisite electronic properties. The integration of 2D materials with existing technologies such as photonic and superconducting waveguides and fiber optics is another exciting possibility. Here, we review the state-of-the-art of the deterministic placement methods, describing and comparing the different alternative methods available in the literature, and we illustrate their potential to fabricate van der Waals heterostructures, to integrate 2D materials into complex devices and to fabricate artificial bilayer structures where the layers present a user-defined rotational twisting angle.
Fault Detection for Nonlinear Process With Deterministic Disturbances: A Just-In-Time Learning Based Data Driven Method.

PubMed

Yin, Shen; Gao, Huijun; Qiu, Jianbin; Kaynak, Okyay

2017-11-01

Data-driven fault detection plays an important role in industrial systems due to its applicability in case of unknown physical models. In fault detection, disturbances must be taken into account as an inherent characteristic of processes. Nevertheless, fault detection for nonlinear processes with deterministic disturbances still receive little attention, especially in data-driven field. To solve this problem, a just-in-time learning-based data-driven (JITL-DD) fault detection method for nonlinear processes with deterministic disturbances is proposed in this paper. JITL-DD employs JITL scheme for process description with local model structures to cope with processes dynamics and nonlinearity. The proposed method provides a data-driven fault detection solution for nonlinear processes with deterministic disturbances, and owns inherent online adaptation and high accuracy of fault detection. Two nonlinear systems, i.e., a numerical example and a sewage treatment process benchmark, are employed to show the effectiveness of the proposed method.
Deterministic Mean-Field Ensemble Kalman Filtering

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Law, Kody J. H.; Tembine, Hamidou; Tempone, Raul

The proof of convergence of the standard ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) from Le Gland, Monbet, and Tran [Large sample asymptotics for the ensemble Kalman filter, in The Oxford Handbook of Nonlinear Filtering, Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK, 2011, pp. 598--631] is extended to non-Gaussian state-space models. In this paper, a density-based deterministic approximation of the mean-field limit EnKF (DMFEnKF) is proposed, consisting of a PDE solver and a quadrature rule. Given a certain minimal order of convergence κ between the two, this extends to the deterministic filter approximation, which is therefore asymptotically superior to standard EnKF for dimension d
Structural reliability assessment of the Oman India Pipeline

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Al-Sharif, A.M.; Preston, R.

1996-12-31

Reliability techniques are increasingly finding application in design. The special design conditions for the deep water sections of the Oman India Pipeline dictate their use since the experience basis for application of standard deterministic techniques is inadequate. The paper discusses the reliability analysis as applied to the Oman India Pipeline, including selection of a collapse model, characterization of the variability in the parameters that affect pipe resistance to collapse, and implementation of first and second order reliability analyses to assess the probability of pipe failure. The reliability analysis results are used as the basis for establishing the pipe wall thicknessmore » requirements for the pipeline.« less
Improving Deterministic Reserve Requirements for Security Constrained Unit Commitment and Scheduling Problems in Power Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Fengyu

Traditional deterministic reserve requirements rely on ad-hoc, rule of thumb methods to determine adequate reserve in order to ensure a reliable unit commitment. Since congestion and uncertainties exist in the system, both the quantity and the location of reserves are essential to ensure system reliability and market efficiency. The modeling of operating reserves in the existing deterministic reserve requirements acquire the operating reserves on a zonal basis and do not fully capture the impact of congestion. The purpose of a reserve zone is to ensure that operating reserves are spread across the network. Operating reserves are shared inside each reserve zone, but intra-zonal congestion may block the deliverability of operating reserves within a zone. Thus, improving reserve policies such as reserve zones may improve the location and deliverability of reserve. As more non-dispatchable renewable resources are integrated into the grid, it will become increasingly difficult to predict the transfer capabilities and the network congestion. At the same time, renewable resources require operators to acquire more operating reserves. With existing deterministic reserve requirements unable to ensure optimal reserve locations, the importance of reserve location and reserve deliverability will increase. While stochastic programming can be used to determine reserve by explicitly modelling uncertainties, there are still scalability as well as pricing issues. Therefore, new methods to improve existing deterministic reserve requirements are desired. One key barrier of improving existing deterministic reserve requirements is its potential market impacts. A metric, quality of service, is proposed in this thesis to evaluate the price signal and market impacts of proposed hourly reserve zones. Three main goals of this thesis are: 1) to develop a theoretical and mathematical model to better locate reserve while maintaining the deterministic unit commitment and economic dispatch structure, especially with the consideration of renewables, 2) to develop a market settlement scheme of proposed dynamic reserve policies such that the market efficiency is improved, 3) to evaluate the market impacts and price signal of the proposed dynamic reserve policies.

Fuzzy net present valuation based on risk assessment of Malaysian infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaffie, Siti Salihah; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah; Mohamad, Daud

2017-04-01

In recent years, built-operate-transfer (BOT) projects have profoundly been accepted under project financing for infrastructure developments in many countries. It requires high financing and involves complex mutual risk. The assessment of the risks is vital to avert huge financial loss. Net present value is widely applied to BOT project where the uncertainties in cash flows are deemed to be deterministic values. This study proposed a fuzzy net present value model taking consideration the assessment of risks from the BOT project. The proposed model is adopted to provide more flexible net present valuation of the project. It is shown and proven that the improved fuzzy cash flow model will provide a valuation that is closed to the real value of the project.
Tiger Team Assessment of the Los Alamos National Laboratory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1991-11-01

The purpose of the safety and health assessment was to determine the effectiveness of representative safety and health programs at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). Within the safety and health programs at LANL, performance was assessed in the following technical areas: Organization and Administration, Quality Verification, Operations, Maintenance, Training and Certification, Auxiliary Systems, Emergency Preparedness, Technical Support, Packaging and Transportation, Nuclear Criticality Safety, Security/Safety Interface, Experimental Activities, Site/Facility Safety Review, Radiological Protection, Personnel Protection, Worker Safety and Health (OSHA) Compliance, Fire Protection, Aviation Safety, Explosives Safety, Natural Phenomena, and Medical Services.
Correlation between safety climate and contractor safety assessment programs in construction.

PubMed

Sparer, Emily H; Murphy, Lauren A; Taylor, Kathryn M; Dennerlein, Jack T

2013-12-01

Contractor safety assessment programs (CSAPs) measure safety performance by integrating multiple data sources together; however, the relationship between these measures of safety performance and safety climate within the construction industry is unknown. Four hundred and one construction workers employed by 68 companies on 26 sites and 11 safety managers employed by 11 companies completed brief surveys containing a nine-item safety climate scale developed for the construction industry. CSAP scores from ConstructSecure, Inc., an online CSAP database, classified these 68 companies as high or low scorers, with the median score of the sample population as the threshold. Spearman rank correlations evaluated the association between the CSAP score and the safety climate score at the individual level, as well as with various grouping methodologies. In addition, Spearman correlations evaluated the comparison between manager-assessed safety climate and worker-assessed safety climate. There were no statistically significant differences between safety climate scores reported by workers in the high and low CSAP groups. There were, at best, weak correlations between workers' safety climate scores and the company CSAP scores, with marginal statistical significance with two groupings of the data. There were also no significant differences between the manager-assessed safety climate and the worker-assessed safety climate scores. A CSAP safety performance score does not appear to capture safety climate, as measured in this study. The nature of safety climate in construction is complex, which may be reflective of the challenges in measuring safety climate within this industry. Am. J. Ind. Med. 56:1463-1472, 2013. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Parameter Estimation in Epidemiology: from Simple to Complex Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aguiar, Maíra; Ballesteros, Sebastién; Boto, João Pedro; Kooi, Bob W.; Mateus, Luís; Stollenwerk, Nico

2011-09-01

We revisit the parameter estimation framework for population biological dynamical systems, and apply it to calibrate various models in epidemiology with empirical time series, namely influenza and dengue fever. When it comes to more complex models like multi-strain dynamics to describe the virus-host interaction in dengue fever, even most recently developed parameter estimation techniques, like maximum likelihood iterated filtering, come to their computational limits. However, the first results of parameter estimation with data on dengue fever from Thailand indicate a subtle interplay between stochasticity and deterministic skeleton. The deterministic system on its own already displays complex dynamics up to deterministic chaos and coexistence of multiple attractors.
Sampled-Data Consensus of Linear Multi-agent Systems With Packet Losses.

PubMed

Zhang, Wenbing; Tang, Yang; Huang, Tingwen; Kurths, Jurgen

In this paper, the consensus problem is studied for a class of multi-agent systems with sampled data and packet losses, where random and deterministic packet losses are considered, respectively. For random packet losses, a Bernoulli-distributed white sequence is used to describe packet dropouts among agents in a stochastic way. For deterministic packet losses, a switched system with stable and unstable subsystems is employed to model packet dropouts in a deterministic way. The purpose of this paper is to derive consensus criteria, such that linear multi-agent systems with sampled-data and packet losses can reach consensus. By means of the Lyapunov function approach and the decomposition method, the design problem of a distributed controller is solved in terms of convex optimization. The interplay among the allowable bound of the sampling interval, the probability of random packet losses, and the rate of deterministic packet losses are explicitly derived to characterize consensus conditions. The obtained criteria are closely related to the maximum eigenvalue of the Laplacian matrix versus the second minimum eigenvalue of the Laplacian matrix, which reveals the intrinsic effect of communication topologies on consensus performance. Finally, simulations are given to show the effectiveness of the proposed results.In this paper, the consensus problem is studied for a class of multi-agent systems with sampled data and packet losses, where random and deterministic packet losses are considered, respectively. For random packet losses, a Bernoulli-distributed white sequence is used to describe packet dropouts among agents in a stochastic way. For deterministic packet losses, a switched system with stable and unstable subsystems is employed to model packet dropouts in a deterministic way. The purpose of this paper is to derive consensus criteria, such that linear multi-agent systems with sampled-data and packet losses can reach consensus. By means of the Lyapunov function approach and the decomposition method, the design problem of a distributed controller is solved in terms of convex optimization. The interplay among the allowable bound of the sampling interval, the probability of random packet losses, and the rate of deterministic packet losses are explicitly derived to characterize consensus conditions. The obtained criteria are closely related to the maximum eigenvalue of the Laplacian matrix versus the second minimum eigenvalue of the Laplacian matrix, which reveals the intrinsic effect of communication topologies on consensus performance. Finally, simulations are given to show the effectiveness of the proposed results.
Comparison of space radiation calculations for deterministic and Monte Carlo transport codes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Zi-Wei; Adams, James; Barghouty, Abdulnasser; Randeniya, Sharmalee; Tripathi, Ram; Watts, John; Yepes, Pablo

For space radiation protection of astronauts or electronic equipments, it is necessary to develop and use accurate radiation transport codes. Radiation transport codes include deterministic codes, such as HZETRN from NASA and UPROP from the Naval Research Laboratory, and Monte Carlo codes such as FLUKA, the Geant4 toolkit and HETC-HEDS. The deterministic codes and Monte Carlo codes complement each other in that deterministic codes are very fast while Monte Carlo codes are more elaborate. Therefore it is important to investigate how well the results of deterministic codes compare with those of Monte Carlo transport codes and where they differ. In this study we evaluate these different codes in their space radiation applications by comparing their output results in the same given space radiation environments, shielding geometry and material. Typical space radiation environments such as the 1977 solar minimum galactic cosmic ray environment are used as the well-defined input, and simple geometries made of aluminum, water and/or polyethylene are used to represent the shielding material. We then compare various outputs of these codes, such as the dose-depth curves and the flux spectra of different fragments and other secondary particles. These comparisons enable us to learn more about the main differences between these space radiation transport codes. At the same time, they help us to learn the qualitative and quantitative features that these transport codes have in common.
Northern Hemisphere glaciation and the evolution of Plio-Pleistocene climate noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyers, Stephen R.; Hinnov, Linda A.

2010-08-01

Deterministic orbital controls on climate variability are commonly inferred to dominate across timescales of 104-106 years, although some studies have suggested that stochastic processes may be of equal or greater importance. Here we explicitly quantify changes in deterministic orbital processes (forcing and/or pacing) versus stochastic climate processes during the Plio-Pleistocene, via time-frequency analysis of two prominent foraminifera oxygen isotopic stacks. Our results indicate that development of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheet is paralleled by an overall amplification of both deterministic and stochastic climate energy, but their relative dominance is variable. The progression from a more stochastic early Pliocene to a strongly deterministic late Pleistocene is primarily accommodated during two transitory phases of Northern Hemisphere ice sheet growth. This long-term trend is punctuated by “stochastic events,” which we interpret as evidence for abrupt reorganization of the climate system at the initiation and termination of the mid-Pleistocene transition and at the onset of Northern Hemisphere glaciation. In addition to highlighting a complex interplay between deterministic and stochastic climate change during the Plio-Pleistocene, our results support an early onset for Northern Hemisphere glaciation (between 3.5 and 3.7 Ma) and reveal some new characteristics of the orbital signal response, such as the puzzling emergence of 100 ka and 400 ka cyclic climate variability during theoretical eccentricity nodes.
Tag-mediated cooperation with non-deterministic genotype-phenotype mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Hong; Chen, Shu

2016-01-01

Tag-mediated cooperation provides a helpful framework for resolving evolutionary social dilemmas. However, most of the previous studies have not taken into account genotype-phenotype distinction in tags, which may play an important role in the process of evolution. To take this into consideration, we introduce non-deterministic genotype-phenotype mapping into a tag-based model with spatial prisoner's dilemma. By our definition, the similarity between genotypic tags does not directly imply the similarity between phenotypic tags. We find that the non-deterministic mapping from genotypic tag to phenotypic tag has non-trivial effects on tag-mediated cooperation. Although we observe that high levels of cooperation can be established under a wide variety of conditions especially when the decisiveness is moderate, the uncertainty in the determination of phenotypic tags may have a detrimental effect on the tag mechanism by disturbing the homophilic interaction structure which can explain the promotion of cooperation in tag systems. Furthermore, the non-deterministic mapping may undermine the robustness of the tag mechanism with respect to various factors such as the structure of the tag space and the tag flexibility. This observation warns us about the danger of applying the classical tag-based models to the analysis of empirical phenomena if genotype-phenotype distinction is significant in real world. Non-deterministic genotype-phenotype mapping thus provides a new perspective to the understanding of tag-mediated cooperation.
Analysis of safety impacts of access management alternatives using the surrogate safety assessment model : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-06-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate if the Surrogate Safety Assessment Model (SSAM) could be used to assess the safety of a highway segment or an intersection in terms of the number and type of conflicts and to compare the safety effects of mul...
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Afatinib versus Gefitinib for First-Line Treatment of Advanced EGFR-Mutated Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancers.

PubMed

Chouaid, Christos; Luciani, Laura; LeLay, Katell; Do, Pascal; Bennouna, Jaafar; Perol, Maurice; Moro-Sibilot, Denis; Vergnenègre, Alain; de Pouvourville, Gérard

2017-10-01

The irreversible ErbB family blocker afatinib and the reversible EGFR tyrosine kinase inhibitor gefitinib were compared in the multicenter, international, randomized, head-to-head phase 2b LUX-Lung 7 trial for first-line treatment of advanced EGFR mutation-positive NSCLCs. Afatinib and gefitinib costs and patients' outcomes in France were assessed. A partitioned survival model was designed to assess the cost-effectiveness of afatinib versus gefitinib for EGFR mutation-positive NSCLCs. Outcomes and safety were taken primarily from the LUX-Lung 7 trial. Resource use and utilities were derived from that trial, an expert-panel questionnaire, and published literature, limiting expenditures to direct costs. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated over a 10-year time horizon for the entire population, and EGFR exon 19 deletion or exon 21 L858R mutation (L858R) subgroups. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. For all EGFR mutation-positive NSCLCs, the afatinib-versus-gefitinib ICER of was €45,211 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) (0.170 QALY gain for an incremental cost of €7697). ICERs for EGFR exon 19 deletion and L858R populations were €38,970 and €52,518, respectively. Afatinib had 100% probability to be cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of €70,000/QALY for patients with common EGFR mutations. First-line afatinib appears cost-effective compared with gefitinib for patients with EGFR mutation-positive NSCLCs. Copyright © 2017 International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
[Cost-effectiveness analysis of apixaban versus acetylsalicylic acid in the prevention of stroke in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation in Spain].

PubMed

Escolar-Albaladejo, Ginés; Barón-Esquivias, Gonzalo; Zamorano, José Luis; Betegón-Nicolás, Lourdes; Canal-Fontcuberta, Cristina; de Salas-Cansado, Marina; Rubio-Rodríguez, Darío; Rubio-Terrés, Carlos

2016-01-01

To assess the cost-effectiveness of apixaban versus acetylsalicylic acid (ASA) in stroke prevention in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) with contraindications of vitamin K antagonists in Spain. A Markov model was adapted, simulating the patient's lifetime. The safety and efficacy of the drugs were obtained from AVERROES clinical trial. The analysis was done from the Spanish National Health System (NHS) and societal perspective. The cost of drugs was calculated according to the recommended doses. The cost of NVAF complications and disease management was obtained from Spanish sources. In a cohort of 1,000 patients with NVAF, during their lifetime numerous complications could be avoided with apixaban versus ASA (48 ischemic strokes, 10 systemic embolism and 53 related deaths). In each patient treated with apixaban more life-years (0.303 LYG) and more quality-adjusted life-years (0.277 QALYs) could be gained. Apixaban would generate more costs per patient for the NHS (€1,742 per patient) but savings would result from the social perspective (€2,887 saved per patient). The cost per LYG and QALY gained would be of €5,749 and €6,289 for the NHS. Apixaban would be dominant (more effective with less costs than ASA) from the societal perspective. The results were stable in both deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. According to this model, when costs and estimated lifetime outcomes achieved with apixaban are compared with those of ASA, apixaban was assessed to be a cost-effective treatment for the prevention of stroke in patients with NVAF in Spain. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.
Improving Project Management with Simulation and Completion Distribution Functions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cates, Grant R.

2004-01-01

Despite the critical importance of project completion timeliness, management practices in place today remain inadequate for addressing the persistent problem of project completion tardiness. A major culprit in late projects is uncertainty, which most, if not all, projects are inherently subject to. This uncertainty resides in the estimates for activity durations, the occurrence of unplanned and unforeseen events, and the availability of critical resources. In response to this problem, this research developed a comprehensive simulation based methodology for conducting quantitative project completion time risk analysis. It is called the Project Assessment by Simulation Technique (PAST). This new tool enables project stakeholders to visualize uncertainty or risk, i.e. the likelihood of their project completing late and the magnitude of the lateness, by providing them with a completion time distribution function of their projects. Discrete event simulation is used within PAST to determine the completion distribution function for the project of interest. The simulation is populated with both deterministic and stochastic elements. The deterministic inputs include planned project activities, precedence requirements, and resource requirements. The stochastic inputs include activity duration growth distributions, probabilities for events that can impact the project, and other dynamic constraints that may be placed upon project activities and milestones. These stochastic inputs are based upon past data from similar projects. The time for an entity to complete the simulation network, subject to both the deterministic and stochastic factors, represents the time to complete the project. Repeating the simulation hundreds or thousands of times allows one to create the project completion distribution function. The Project Assessment by Simulation Technique was demonstrated to be effective for the on-going NASA project to assemble the International Space Station. Approximately $500 million per month is being spent on this project, which is scheduled to complete by 2010. NASA project stakeholders participated in determining and managing completion distribution functions produced from PAST. The first result was that project stakeholders improved project completion risk awareness. Secondly, using PAST, mitigation options were analyzed to improve project completion performance and reduce total project cost.
Aviation Safety: Modeling and Analyzing Complex Interactions between Humans and Automated Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rungta, Neha; Brat, Guillaume; Clancey, William J.; Linde, Charlotte; Raimondi, Franco; Seah, Chin; Shafto, Michael

2013-01-01

The on-going transformation from the current US Air Traffic System (ATS) to the Next Generation Air Traffic System (NextGen) will force the introduction of new automated systems and most likely will cause automation to migrate from ground to air. This will yield new function allocations between humans and automation and therefore change the roles and responsibilities in the ATS. Yet, safety in NextGen is required to be at least as good as in the current system. We therefore need techniques to evaluate the safety of the interactions between humans and automation. We think that current human factor studies and simulation-based techniques will fall short in front of the ATS complexity, and that we need to add more automated techniques to simulations, such as model checking, which offers exhaustive coverage of the non-deterministic behaviors in nominal and off-nominal scenarios. In this work, we present a verification approach based both on simulations and on model checking for evaluating the roles and responsibilities of humans and automation. Models are created using Brahms (a multi-agent framework) and we show that the traditional Brahms simulations can be integrated with automated exploration techniques based on model checking, thus offering a complete exploration of the behavioral space of the scenario. Our formal analysis supports the notion of beliefs and probabilities to reason about human behavior. We demonstrate the technique with the Ueberligen accident since it exemplifies authority problems when receiving conflicting advices from human and automated systems.
A Unit on Deterministic Chaos for Student Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stavrou, D.; Assimopoulos, S.; Skordoulis, C.

2013-01-01

A unit aiming to introduce pre-service teachers of primary education to the limited predictability of deterministic chaotic systems is presented. The unit is based on a commercial chaotic pendulum system connected with a data acquisition interface. The capabilities and difficulties in understanding the notion of limited predictability of 18…
A Deterministic Annealing Approach to Clustering AIRS Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guillaume, Alexandre; Braverman, Amy; Ruzmaikin, Alexander

2012-01-01

We will examine the validity of means and standard deviations as a basis for climate data products. We will explore the conditions under which these two simple statistics are inadequate summaries of the underlying empirical probability distributions by contrasting them with a nonparametric, method called Deterministic Annealing technique
INTEGRATED PROBABILISTIC AND DETERMINISTIC MODELING TECHNIQUES IN ESTIMATING EXPOSURE TO WATER-BORNE CONTAMINANTS: PART 2 PHARMACOKINETIC MODELING

EPA Science Inventory

The Total Exposure Model (TEM) uses deterministic and stochastic methods to estimate the exposure of a person performing daily activities of eating, drinking, showering, and bathing. There were 250 time histories generated, by subject with activities, for the three exposure ro...
Integrability and Chaos: The Classical Uncertainty

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Masoliver, Jaume; Ros, Ana

2011-01-01

In recent years there has been a considerable increase in the publishing of textbooks and monographs covering what was formerly known as random or irregular deterministic motion, now referred to as deterministic chaos. There is still substantial interest in a matter that is included in many graduate and even undergraduate courses on classical…
The development of the deterministic nonlinear PDEs in particle physics to stochastic case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdelrahman, Mahmoud A. E.; Sohaly, M. A.

2018-06-01

In the present work, accuracy method called, Riccati-Bernoulli Sub-ODE technique is used for solving the deterministic and stochastic case of the Phi-4 equation and the nonlinear Foam Drainage equation. Also, the control on the randomness input is studied for stability stochastic process solution.
Contemporary Genetics for Gender Researchers: Not Your Grandma's Genetics Anymore

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Salk, Rachel H.; Hyde, Janet S.

2012-01-01

Over the past century, much of genetics was deterministic, and feminist researchers framed justified criticisms of genetics research. However, over the past two decades, genetics research has evolved remarkably and has moved far from earlier deterministic approaches. Our article provides a brief primer on modern genetics, emphasizing contemporary…
Technological Utopia, Dystopia and Ambivalence: Teaching with Social Media at a South African University

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rambe, Patient; Nel, Liezel

2015-01-01

The discourse of social media adoption in higher education has often been funnelled through utopian and dystopian perspectives, which are polarised but determinist theorisations of human engagement with educational technologies. Consequently, these determinist approaches have obscured a broadened grasp of the situated, socially constructed nature…

Applying the food safety objective and related standards to thermal inactivation of Salmonella in poultry meat.

PubMed

Membré, Jeanne-Marie; Bassett, John; Gorris, Leon G M

2007-09-01

The objective of this study was to investigate the practicality of designing a heat treatment process in a food manufacturing operation for a product governed by a Food Safety Objective (FSO). Salmonella in cooked poultry meat was taken as the working example. Although there is no FSO for this product in current legislation, this may change in the (near) future. Four different process design calculations were explored by means of deterministic and probabilistic approaches to mathematical data handling and modeling. It was found that the probabilistic approach was a more objective, transparent, and quantifiable approach to establish the stringency of food safety management systems. It also allowed the introduction of specific prevalence rates. The key input analyzed in this study was the minimum time required for the heat treatment at a fixed temperature to produce a product that complied with the criterion for product safety, i.e., the FSO. By means of the four alternative process design calculations, the minimum time requirement at 70 degrees C was established and ranged from 0.26 to 0.43 min. This is comparable to the U.S. regulation recommendations and significantly less than that of 2 min at 70 degrees C used, for instance, in the United Kingdom regulation concerning vegetative microorganisms in ready-to-eat foods. However, the objective of this study was not to challenge existing regulations but to provide an illustration of how an FSO established by a competent authority can guide decisions on safe product and process designs in practical operation; it hopefully contributes to the collaborative work between regulators, academia, and industries that need to continue learning and gaining experience from each other in order to translate risk-based concepts such as the FSO into everyday operational practice.
Managing risk in healthcare: understanding your safety culture using the Manchester Patient Safety Framework (MaPSaF).

PubMed

Parker, Dianne

2009-03-01

To provide sufficient information about the Manchester Patient Safety Framework (MaPSaF) to allow healthcare professionals to assess its potential usefulness. The assessment of safety culture is an important aspect of risk management, and one in which there is increasing interest among healthcare organizations. Manchester Patient Safety Framework offers a theory-based framework for assessing safety culture, designed specifically for use in the NHS. The framework covers multiple dimensions of safety culture, and five levels of safety culture development. This allows the generation of a profile of an organization's safety culture in terms of areas of relative strength and challenge, which can be used to identify focus issues for change and improvement. Manchester Patient Safety Framework provides a useful method for engaging healthcare professionals in assessing and improving the safety culture in their organization, as part of a programme of risk management.
Probabilistic short-term volcanic hazard in phases of unrest: A case study for tephra fallout

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selva, Jacopo; Costa, Antonio; Sandri, Laura; Macedonio, Giovanni; Marzocchi, Warner

2014-12-01

During volcanic crises, volcanologists estimate the impact of possible imminent eruptions usually through deterministic modeling of the effects of one or a few preestablished scenarios. Despite such an approach may bring an important information to the decision makers, the sole use of deterministic scenarios does not allow scientists to properly take into consideration all uncertainties, and it cannot be used to assess quantitatively the risk because the latter unavoidably requires a probabilistic approach. We present a model based on the concept of Bayesian event tree (hereinafter named BET_VH_ST, standing for Bayesian event tree for short-term volcanic hazard), for short-term near-real-time probabilistic volcanic hazard analysis formulated for any potential hazardous phenomenon accompanying an eruption. The specific goal of BET_VH_ST is to produce a quantitative assessment of the probability of exceedance of any potential level of intensity for a given volcanic hazard due to eruptions within restricted time windows (hours to days) in any area surrounding the volcano, accounting for all natural and epistemic uncertainties. BET_VH_ST properly assesses the conditional probability at each level of the event tree accounting for any relevant information derived from the monitoring system, theoretical models, and the past history of the volcano, propagating any relevant epistemic uncertainty underlying these assessments. As an application example of the model, we apply BET_VH_ST to assess short-term volcanic hazard related to tephra loading during Major Emergency Simulation Exercise, a major exercise at Mount Vesuvius that took place from 19 to 23 October 2006, consisting in a blind simulation of Vesuvius reactivation, from the early warning phase up to the final eruption, including the evacuation of a sample of about 2000 people from the area at risk. The results show that BET_VH_ST is able to produce short-term forecasts of the impact of tephra fall during a rapidly evolving crisis, accurately accounting for and propagating all uncertainties and enabling rational decision making under uncertainty.
Multi-Hazard Advanced Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tools and Applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coleman, Justin L.; Bolisetti, Chandu; Veeraraghavan, Swetha

Design of nuclear power plant (NPP) facilities to resist natural hazards has been a part of the regulatory process from the beginning of the NPP industry in the United States (US), but has evolved substantially over time. The original set of approaches and methods was entirely deterministic in nature and focused on a traditional engineering margins-based approach. However, over time probabilistic and risk-informed approaches were also developed and implemented in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) guidance and regulation. A defense-in-depth framework has also been incorporated into US regulatory guidance over time. As a result, today, the US regulatory framework incorporatesmore » deterministic and probabilistic approaches for a range of different applications and for a range of natural hazard considerations. This framework will continue to evolve as a result of improved knowledge and newly identified regulatory needs and objectives, most notably in response to the NRC activities developed in response to the 2011 Fukushima accident in Japan. Although the US regulatory framework has continued to evolve over time, the tools, methods and data available to the US nuclear industry to meet the changing requirements have not kept pace. Notably, there is significant room for improvement in the tools and methods available for external event probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), which is the principal assessment approach used in risk-informed regulations and risk-informed decision-making applied to natural hazard assessment and design. This is particularly true if PRA is applied to natural hazards other than seismic loading. Development of a new set of tools and methods that incorporate current knowledge, modern best practice, and state-of-the-art computational resources would lead to more reliable assessment of facility risk and risk insights (e.g., the SSCs and accident sequences that are most risk-significant), with less uncertainty and reduced conservatisms.« less
Launch Services Safety Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Loftin, Charles E.

2008-01-01

NASA/KSC Launch Services Division Safety (SA-D) services include: (1) Assessing the safety of the launch vehicle (2) Assessing the safety of NASA ELV spacecraft (S/C) / launch vehicle (LV) interfaces (3) Assessing the safety of spacecraft processing to ensure resource protection of: - KSC facilities - KSC VAFB facilities - KSC controlled property - Other NASA assets (4) NASA personnel safety (5) Interfacing with payload organizations to review spacecraft for adequate safety implementation and compliance for integrated activities (6) Assisting in the integration of safety activities between the payload, launch vehicle, and processing facilities
Comparison of different assimilation schemes in an operational assimilation system with Ensemble Kalman Filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Yajing; Barth, Alexander; Beckers, Jean-Marie; Candille, Guillem; Brankart, Jean-Michel; Brasseur, Pierre

2016-04-01

In this paper, four assimilation schemes, including an intermittent assimilation scheme (INT) and three incremental assimilation schemes (IAU 0, IAU 50 and IAU 100), are compared in the same assimilation experiments with a realistic eddy permitting primitive equation model of the North Atlantic Ocean using the Ensemble Kalman Filter. The three IAU schemes differ from each other in the position of the increment update window that has the same size as the assimilation window. 0, 50 and 100 correspond to the degree of superposition of the increment update window on the current assimilation window. Sea surface height, sea surface temperature, and temperature profiles at depth collected between January and December 2005 are assimilated. Sixty ensemble members are generated by adding realistic noise to the forcing parameters related to the temperature. The ensemble is diagnosed and validated by comparison between the ensemble spread and the model/observation difference, as well as by rank histogram before the assimilation experiments The relevance of each assimilation scheme is evaluated through analyses on thermohaline variables and the current velocities. The results of the assimilation are assessed according to both deterministic and probabilistic metrics with independent/semi-independent observations. For deterministic validation, the ensemble means, together with the ensemble spreads are compared to the observations, in order to diagnose the ensemble distribution properties in a deterministic way. For probabilistic validation, the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) is used to evaluate the ensemble forecast system according to reliability and resolution. The reliability is further decomposed into bias and dispersion by the reduced centered random variable (RCRV) score in order to investigate the reliability properties of the ensemble forecast system.
Deterministic seismic hazard macrozonation of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolathayar, Sreevalsa; Sitharam, T. G.; Vipin, K. S.

2012-10-01

Earthquakes are known to have occurred in Indian subcontinent from ancient times. This paper presents the results of seismic hazard analysis of India (6°-38°N and 68°-98°E) based on the deterministic approach using latest seismicity data (up to 2010). The hazard analysis was done using two different source models (linear sources and point sources) and 12 well recognized attenuation relations considering varied tectonic provinces in the region. The earthquake data obtained from different sources were homogenized and declustered and a total of 27,146 earthquakes of moment magnitude 4 and above were listed in the study area. The sesismotectonic map of the study area was prepared by considering the faults, lineaments and the shear zones which are associated with earthquakes of magnitude 4 and above. A new program was developed in MATLAB for smoothing of the point sources. For assessing the seismic hazard, the study area was divided into small grids of size 0.1° × 0.1° (approximately 10 × 10 km), and the hazard parameters were calculated at the center of each of these grid cells by considering all the seismic sources within a radius of 300 to 400 km. Rock level peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) and spectral accelerations for periods 0.1 and 1 s have been calculated for all the grid points with a deterministic approach using a code written in MATLAB. Epistemic uncertainty in hazard definition has been tackled within a logic-tree framework considering two types of sources and three attenuation models for each grid point. The hazard evaluation without logic tree approach also has been done for comparison of the results. The contour maps showing the spatial variation of hazard values are presented in the paper.
Development of Methodologies for IV and V of Neural Networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taylor, Brian; Darrah, Marjorie

2003-01-01

Non-deterministic systems often rely upon neural network (NN) technology to "lean" to manage flight systems under controlled conditions using carefully chosen training sets. How can these adaptive systems be certified to ensure that they will become increasingly efficient and behave appropriately in real-time situations? The bulk of Independent Verification and Validation (IV&V) research of non-deterministic software control systems such as Adaptive Flight Controllers (AFC's) addresses NNs in well-behaved and constrained environments such as simulations and strict process control. However, neither substantive research, nor effective IV&V techniques have been found to address AFC's learning in real-time and adapting to live flight conditions. Adaptive flight control systems offer good extensibility into commercial aviation as well as military aviation and transportation. Consequently, this area of IV&V represents an area of growing interest and urgency. ISR proposes to further the current body of knowledge to meet two objectives: Research the current IV&V methods and assess where these methods may be applied toward a methodology for the V&V of Neural Network; and identify effective methods for IV&V of NNs that learn in real-time, including developing a prototype test bed for IV&V of AFC's. Currently. no practical method exists. lSR will meet these objectives through the tasks identified and described below. First, ISR will conduct a literature review of current IV&V technology. TO do this, ISR will collect the existing body of research on IV&V of non-deterministic systems and neural network. ISR will also develop the framework for disseminating this information through specialized training. This effort will focus on developing NASA's capability to conduct IV&V of neural network systems and to provide training to meet the increasing need for IV&V expertise in such systems.
Measures of thermodynamic irreversibility in deterministic and stochastic dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ford, Ian J.

2015-07-01

It is generally observed that if a dynamical system is sufficiently complex, then as time progresses it will share out energy and other properties amongst its component parts to eliminate any initial imbalances, retaining only fluctuations. This is known as energy dissipation and it is closely associated with the concept of thermodynamic irreversibility, measured by the increase in entropy according to the second law. It is of interest to quantify such behaviour from a dynamical rather than a thermodynamic perspective and to this end stochastic entropy production and the time-integrated dissipation function have been introduced as analogous measures of irreversibility, principally for stochastic and deterministic dynamics, respectively. We seek to compare these measures. First we modify the dissipation function to allow it to measure irreversibility in situations where the initial probability density function (pdf) of the system is asymmetric as well as symmetric in velocity. We propose that it tests for failure of what we call the obversibility of the system, to be contrasted with reversibility, the failure of which is assessed by stochastic entropy production. We note that the essential difference between stochastic entropy production and the time-integrated modified dissipation function lies in the sequence of procedures undertaken in the associated tests of irreversibility. We argue that an assumed symmetry of the initial pdf with respect to velocity inversion (within a framework of deterministic dynamics) can be incompatible with the Past Hypothesis, according to which there should be a statistical distinction between the behaviour of certain properties of an isolated system as it evolves into the far future and the remote past. Imposing symmetry on a velocity distribution is acceptable for many applications of statistical physics, but can introduce difficulties when discussing irreversible behaviour.
Deterministic chaos in an ytterbium-doped mode-locked fiber laser

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mélo, Lucas B. A.; Palacios, Guillermo F. R.; Carelli, Pedro V.; Acioli, Lúcio H.; Rios Leite, José R.; de Miranda, Marcio H. G.

2018-05-01

We experimentally study the nonlinear dynamics of a femtosecond ytterbium doped mode-locked fiber laser. With the laser operating in the pulsed regime a route to chaos is presented, starting from stable mode-locking, period two, period four, chaos and period three regimes. Return maps and bifurcation diagrams were extracted from time series for each regime. The analysis of the time series with the laser operating in the quasi mode-locked regime presents deterministic chaos described by an unidimensional Rossler map. A positive Lyapunov exponent $\\lambda = 0.14$ confirms the deterministic chaos of the system. We suggest an explanation about the observed map by relating gain saturation and intra-cavity loss.
The viability of ADVANTG deterministic method for synthetic radiography generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bingham, Andrew; Lee, Hyoung K.

2018-07-01

Fast simulation techniques to generate synthetic radiographic images of high resolution are helpful when new radiation imaging systems are designed. However, the standard stochastic approach requires lengthy run time with poorer statistics at higher resolution. The investigation of the viability of a deterministic approach to synthetic radiography image generation was explored. The aim was to analyze a computational time decrease over the stochastic method. ADVANTG was compared to MCNP in multiple scenarios including a small radiography system prototype, to simulate high resolution radiography images. By using ADVANTG deterministic code to simulate radiography images the computational time was found to decrease 10 to 13 times compared to the MCNP stochastic approach while retaining image quality.
Constantly evolving safety assessment protocols for GM foods.

PubMed

Sesikeran, B; Vasanthi, Siruguri

2008-01-01

he introduction of GM foods has led to the evolution of a food safety assessment paradigm that establishes safety of the GM food relative to its conventional counterpart. The GM foods currently approved and marketed in several countries have undergone extensive safety testing under a structured safety assessment framework evolved by international organizations like FAO, WHO, Codex and OECD. The major elements of safety assessment include molecular characterization of inserted genes and stability of the trait, toxicity and allergenicity potential of the expressed substances, compositional analysis, potential for gene transfer to gut microflora and unintentional effects of the genetic modification. As more number and type of food crops are being brought under the genetic modification regime, the adequacy of existing safety assessment protocols for establishing safety of these foods has been questioned. Such crops comprise GM crops with higher agronomic vigour, nutritional or health benefit/ by modification of plant metabolic pathways and those expressing bioactive substances and pharmaceuticals. The safety assessment challenges of these foods are the potential of the methods to detect unintentional effects with higher sensitivity and rigor. Development of databases on food compositions, toxicants and allergens is currently seen as an important aid to development of safety protocols. With the changing global trends in genetic modification technology future challenge would be to develop GM crops with minimum amount of inserted foreign DNA so as to reduce the burden of complex safety assessments while ensuring safety and utility of the technology.
Regulatory Requirements and Technical Analysis for Department of Energy Regulated Performance Assessments of Shallow-Trench Disposal of Low-Level Radioactive Waste at the Nevada Test Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crowe, B.; Black, P.; Tauxe, J.; Yucel, V.; Rawlinson, S.; Colarusso, A.; DiSanza, F.

2001-12-01

The National Nuclear Security Administration, Nevada Operations Office (NNSA/NV) operates and maintains two active facilities on the Nevada Test Site (NTS) that dispose Department of Energy (DOE) defense-generated low-level radioactive (LLW), mixed radioactive, and classified waste in shallow trenches, pits and large-diameter boreholes. The operation and maintenance of the LLW disposal sites are self-regulated under DOE Order 435.1, which requires review of a Performance Assessment for four performance objectives: 1) all pathways 25 mrem/yr limit; 2) atmospheric pathways 10 mrem/yr limit; 3) radon flux density of 20 pCi/m2/s; and 4) groundwater resource protection (Safe Drinking Water Act; 4 mrem/yr limit). The inadvertent human intruder is protected under a dual 500- and 100-mrem limit (acute and chronic exposure). In response to the Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board Recommendation 92 2, a composite analysis is required that must examine all interacting sources for compliance against both 30 and 100 mrem/yr limits. A small component of classified transuranic waste is buried at intermediate depths in 3-meter diameter boreholes at the Area 5 LLW disposal facility and is assessed through DOE-agreement against the requirements of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)'s 40 CFR 191. The hazardous components of mixed LLW are assessed against RCRA requirements. The NTS LLW sites fall directly under three sets of federal regulations and the regulatory differences result not only in organizational challenges, but also in different decision objectives and technical paths to completion. The DOE regulations require deterministic analysis for a 1,000-year compliance assessment supplemented by probabilistic analysis under a long-term maintenance program. The EPA regulations for TRU waste are probabilistically based for a compliance interval of 10,000 years. Multiple steps in the assessments are strongly dependent on assumptions for long-term land use policies. Integrating the different requirements into coherent and consistent sets of conceptual models of the disposal setting, alternative scenarios, and system models of fate, transport and dose-based assessments is technically challenging. Environmental assessments for these sites must be broad-based and flexible to accommodate the multiple objectives.
A probabilistic approach for shallow rainfall-triggered landslide modeling at basin scale. A case study in the Luquillo Forest, Puerto Rico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dialynas, Y. G.; Arnone, E.; Noto, L. V.; Bras, R. L.

2013-12-01

Slope stability depends on geotechnical and hydrological factors that exhibit wide natural spatial variability, yet sufficient measurements of the related parameters are rarely available over entire study areas. The uncertainty associated with the inability to fully characterize hydrologic behavior has an impact on any attempt to model landslide hazards. This work suggests a way to systematically account for this uncertainty in coupled distributed hydrological-stability models for shallow landslide hazard assessment. A probabilistic approach for the prediction of rainfall-triggered landslide occurrence at basin scale was implemented in an existing distributed eco-hydrological and landslide model, tRIBS-VEGGIE -landslide (Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN)-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator - VEGetation Generator for Interactive Evolution). More precisely, we upgraded tRIBS-VEGGIE- landslide to assess the likelihood of shallow landslides by accounting for uncertainty related to geotechnical and hydrological factors that directly affect slope stability. Natural variability of geotechnical soil characteristics was considered by randomizing soil cohesion and friction angle. Hydrological uncertainty related to the estimation of matric suction was taken into account by considering soil retention parameters as correlated random variables. The probability of failure is estimated through an assumed theoretical Factor of Safety (FS) distribution, conditioned on soil moisture content. At each cell, the temporally variant FS statistics are approximated by the First Order Second Moment (FOSM) method, as a function of parameters statistical properties. The model was applied on the Rio Mameyes Basin, located in the Luquillo Experimental Forest in Puerto Rico, where previous landslide analyses have been carried out. At each time step, model outputs include the probability of landslide occurrence across the basin, and the most probable depth of failure at each soil column. The use of the proposed probabilistic approach for shallow landslide prediction is able to reveal and quantify landslide risk at slopes assessed as stable by simpler deterministic methods.
Earthquake Loading Assessment to Evaluate Liquefaction Potential in Emilia-Romagna Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daminelli, R.; Marcellini, A.; Tento, A.

2016-12-01

The May-June 2012 seismic sequence that struck Lombardia and Emilia-Romagna consisted of seven main events of magnitude greater than 5 followed by numerous aftershocks. The strongest earthquakes occurred on May 20 (M=5.9) and May 29 (M=5.8). The widespread soil liquefaction, unexpected because of the moderate magnitude of the events, pushed the local authorities to issue research projects aimed to define the earthquake loading to evaluate the liquefaction safety factor. The reasons explained below led us to adopt a deterministic hazard approach to evaluate the seismic parameters relevant to liquefaction assessment, despite the fact that the Italian Seismic Building Code (NTC08) is based on probabilistic hazard analysis. For urban planning and building design geologists generally adopt the CRR/CSR technique to assess liquefaction potential; therefore we considered PGA and a design magnitude to be representative of the seismic loading. The procedure adopted consists: a) identification of seismic source zones and characterization of each zone by the maximum magnitude; b) evaluation of the source to site distance and c) adoption of a suitable attenuation law to compute the expected PGA at the site, given the site condition and the design magnitude. The design magnitude can be: the maximum magnitude; the magnitude that causes the largest PGA, or both. The PGA values obtained are larger with respect to the 474 years return period PGA prescribed by NTC08 for the seismic design for ordinary buildings. We conducted a CPTU resistance test intended to define the CRR at the village of Cavezzo, situated in the epicentral area of the 2012 earthquake. The CRR/CSR ratio led to an elevated liquefaction risk at the analysed site. On the contrary the adoption of the 474 years return period PGA of the NTCO8 prescribed for Cavezzo site led to a negligible liquefaction risk. Note that very close to the investigated site several liquefaction phenomena were observed.
Earthquake Loading Assessment to Evaluate Liquefaction Potential in Emilia-Romagna Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daminelli, Rosastella; Marcellini, Alberto; Tento, Alberto

2017-04-01

The May-June 2012 seismic sequence that struck Lombardia and Emilia-Romagna consisted of seven main events of magnitude greater than 5 followed by numerous aftershocks. The strongest earthquakes occurred on May 20 (M=5.9) and May 29 (M=5.8). The widespread soil liquefaction, unexpected because of the moderate magnitude of the events, pushed the local authorities to issue research projects aimed to define the earthquake loading to evaluate the liquefaction safety factor. The reasons explained below led us to adopt a deterministic hazard approach to evaluate the seismic parameters relevant to liquefaction assessment, despite the fact that the Italian Seismic Building Code (NTC08) is based on probabilistic hazard analysis. For urban planning and building design geologists generally adopt the CRR/CSR technique to assess liquefaction potential; therefore we considered PGA and a design magnitude to be representative of the seismic loading. The procedure adopted consists: a) identification of seismic source zones and characterization of each zone by the maximum magnitude; b) evaluation of the source to site distance and c) adoption of a suitable attenuation law to compute the expected PGA at the site, given the site condition and the design magnitude. The design magnitude can be: the maximum magnitude; the magnitude that causes the largest PGA, or both. The PGA values obtained are larger with respect to the 474 years return period PGA prescribed by NTC08 for the seismic design for ordinary buildings. We conducted a CPTU resistance test intended to define the CRR at the village of Cavezzo, situated in the epicentral area of the 2012 earthquake. The CRR/CSR ratio led to an elevated liquefaction risk at the analysed site. On the contrary the adoption of the 474 years return period PGA of the NTCO8 prescribed for Cavezzo site led to a negligible liquefaction risk. Note that very close to the investigated site several liquefaction phenomena were observed.
Is there agreement between worker self and supervisor assessment of worker safety performance? An examination in the construction industry.

PubMed

Xia, Nini; Griffin, Mark A; Wang, Xueqing; Liu, Xing; Wang, Dan

2018-06-01

Individual safety performance (behavior) critically influences safety outcomes in high-risk workplaces. Compared to the study of generic work performance on different measurements, few studies have investigated different measurements of safety performance, typically relying on employees' self-reflection of their safety behavior. This research aims to address this limitation by including worker self-reflection and other (i.e., supervisor) assessment of two worker safety performance dimensions, safety compliance and safety participation. A sample of 105 workers and 17 supervisors in 17 groups in the Chinese construction industry participated in this study. Comparisons were made between worker compliance and participation in each measurement, and between workers' and supervisors' assessment of workers' compliance and participation. Multilevel modeling was adopted to test the moderating effects on the worker self-reflection and supervisor-assessment relationship by group safety climate and the work experience of supervisors. Higher levels of safety compliance than participation were found for self-reflection and supervisor assessment. The discrepancy between the two measurements in each safety performance dimension was significant. The work experience of supervisors attenuated the discrepancy between self- and supervisor-assessment of compliance. Contrary to our expectations, the moderating effect of group safety climate was not supported. The discrepancy between worker self- and supervisor-assessment of worker safety performance, thus, suggests the importance of including alternative measurements of safety performance in addition to self-reflection. Lower levels of participation behavior in both raters suggest more research on the motivators of participatory behavior. Practical applications The discrepancy between different raters can lead to negative reactions of ratees, suggesting that managers should be aware of that difference. Assigning experienced supervisors as raters can be effective at mitigating interrater discrepancy and conflicts in the assessment of compliance behavior. Copyright © 2018 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
A DETERMINISTIC GEOMETRIC REPRESENTATION OF TEMPORAL RAINFALL: SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR A STORM IN BOSTON. (R824780)

EPA Science Inventory

In an earlier study, Puente and Obregón [Water Resour. Res. 32(1996)2825] reported on the usage of a deterministic fractal–multifractal (FM) methodology to faithfully describe an 8.3 h high-resolution rainfall time series in Boston, gathered every 15 s ...
Seed availability constrains plant species sorting along a soil fertility gradient

Treesearch

Bryan L. Foster; Erin J. Questad; Cathy D. Collins; Cheryl A. Murphy; Timothy L. Dickson; Val H. Smith

2011-01-01

1. Spatial variation in species composition within and among communities may be caused by deterministic, niche-based species sorting in response to underlying environmental heterogeneity as well as by stochastic factors such as dispersal limitation and variable species pools. An important goal in ecology is to reconcile deterministic and stochastic perspectives of...
The Role of Probability and Intentionality in Preschoolers' Causal Generalizations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sobel, David M.; Sommerville, Jessica A.; Travers, Lea V.; Blumenthal, Emily J.; Stoddard, Emily

2009-01-01

Three experiments examined whether preschoolers recognize that the causal properties of objects generalize to new members of the same set given either deterministic or probabilistic data. Experiment 1 found that 3- and 4-year-olds were able to make such a generalization given deterministic data but were at chance when they observed probabilistic…

Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA) Instantiation within a Hard Real-Time, Deterministic Combat System Environment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moreland, James D., Jr

2013-01-01

This research investigates the instantiation of a Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA) within a hard real-time (stringent time constraints), deterministic (maximum predictability) combat system (CS) environment. There are numerous stakeholders across the U.S. Department of the Navy who are affected by this development, and therefore the system…
Comparison of Deterministic and Probabilistic Radial Distribution Systems Load Flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, Atma Ram; Kumar, Ashwani

2017-12-01

Distribution system network today is facing the challenge of meeting increased load demands from the industrial, commercial and residential sectors. The pattern of load is highly dependent on consumer behavior and temporal factors such as season of the year, day of the week or time of the day. For deterministic radial distribution load flow studies load is taken as constant. But, load varies continually with a high degree of uncertainty. So, there is a need to model probable realistic load. Monte-Carlo Simulation is used to model the probable realistic load by generating random values of active and reactive power load from the mean and standard deviation of the load and for solving a Deterministic Radial Load Flow with these values. The probabilistic solution is reconstructed from deterministic data obtained for each simulation. The main contribution of the work is: Finding impact of probable realistic ZIP load modeling on balanced radial distribution load flow. Finding impact of probable realistic ZIP load modeling on unbalanced radial distribution load flow. Compare the voltage profile and losses with probable realistic ZIP load modeling for balanced and unbalanced radial distribution load flow.
Unsteady Flows in a Single-Stage Transonic Axial-Flow Fan Stator Row. Ph.D. Thesis - Iowa State Univ.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hathaway, Michael D.

1986-01-01

Measurements of the unsteady velocity field within the stator row of a transonic axial-flow fan were acquired using a laser anemometer. Measurements were obtained on axisymmetric surfaces located at 10 and 50 percent span from the shroud, with the fan operating at maximum efficiency at design speed. The ensemble-average and variance of the measured velocities are used to identify rotor-wake-generated (deterministic) unsteadiness and turbulence, respectively. Correlations of both deterministic and turbulent velocity fluctuations provide information on the characteristics of unsteady interactions within the stator row. These correlations are derived from the Navier-Stokes equation in a manner similar to deriving the Reynolds stress terms, whereby various averaging operators are used to average the aperiodic, deterministic, and turbulent velocity fluctuations which are known to be present in multistage turbomachines. The correlations of deterministic and turbulent velocity fluctuations throughout the axial fan stator row are presented. In particular, amplification and attenuation of both types of unsteadiness are shown to occur within the stator blade passage.
Precision production: enabling deterministic throughput for precision aspheres with MRF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maloney, Chris; Entezarian, Navid; Dumas, Paul

2017-10-01

Aspherical lenses offer advantages over spherical optics by improving image quality or reducing the number of elements necessary in an optical system. Aspheres are no longer being used exclusively by high-end optical systems but are now replacing spherical optics in many applications. The need for a method of production-manufacturing of precision aspheres has emerged and is part of the reason that the optics industry is shifting away from artisan-based techniques towards more deterministic methods. Not only does Magnetorheological Finishing (MRF) empower deterministic figure correction for the most demanding aspheres but it also enables deterministic and efficient throughput for series production of aspheres. The Q-flex MRF platform is designed to support batch production in a simple and user friendly manner. Thorlabs routinely utilizes the advancements of this platform and has provided results from using MRF to finish a batch of aspheres as a case study. We have developed an analysis notebook to evaluate necessary specifications for implementing quality control metrics. MRF brings confidence to optical manufacturing by ensuring high throughput for batch processing of aspheres.
Discrete-Time Deterministic $Q$ -Learning: A Novel Convergence Analysis.

PubMed

Wei, Qinglai; Lewis, Frank L; Sun, Qiuye; Yan, Pengfei; Song, Ruizhuo

2017-05-01

In this paper, a novel discrete-time deterministic Q -learning algorithm is developed. In each iteration of the developed Q -learning algorithm, the iterative Q function is updated for all the state and control spaces, instead of updating for a single state and a single control in traditional Q -learning algorithm. A new convergence criterion is established to guarantee that the iterative Q function converges to the optimum, where the convergence criterion of the learning rates for traditional Q -learning algorithms is simplified. During the convergence analysis, the upper and lower bounds of the iterative Q function are analyzed to obtain the convergence criterion, instead of analyzing the iterative Q function itself. For convenience of analysis, the convergence properties for undiscounted case of the deterministic Q -learning algorithm are first developed. Then, considering the discounted factor, the convergence criterion for the discounted case is established. Neural networks are used to approximate the iterative Q function and compute the iterative control law, respectively, for facilitating the implementation of the deterministic Q -learning algorithm. Finally, simulation results and comparisons are given to illustrate the performance of the developed algorithm.
Food safety objective approach for controlling Clostridium botulinum growth and toxin production in commercially sterile foods.

PubMed

Anderson, N M; Larkin, J W; Cole, M B; Skinner, G E; Whiting, R C; Gorris, L G M; Rodriguez, A; Buchanan, R; Stewart, C M; Hanlin, J H; Keener, L; Hall, P A

2011-11-01

As existing technologies are refined and novel microbial inactivation technologies are developed, there is a growing need for a metric that can be used to judge equivalent levels of hazard control stringency to ensure food safety of commercially sterile foods. A food safety objective (FSO) is an output-oriented metric that designates the maximum level of a hazard (e.g., the pathogenic microorganism or toxin) tolerated in a food at the end of the food supply chain at the moment of consumption without specifying by which measures the hazard level is controlled. Using a risk-based approach, when the total outcome of controlling initial levels (H(0)), reducing levels (ΣR), and preventing an increase in levels (ΣI) is less than or equal to the target FSO, the product is considered safe. A cross-disciplinary international consortium of specialists from industry, academia, and government was organized with the objective of developing a document to illustrate the FSO approach for controlling Clostridium botulinum toxin in commercially sterile foods. This article outlines the general principles of an FSO risk management framework for controlling C. botulinum growth and toxin production in commercially sterile foods. Topics include historical approaches to establishing commercial sterility; a perspective on the establishment of an appropriate target FSO; a discussion of control of initial levels, reduction of levels, and prevention of an increase in levels of the hazard; and deterministic and stochastic examples that illustrate the impact that various control measure combinations have on the safety of well-established commercially sterile products and the ways in which variability all levels of control can heavily influence estimates in the FSO risk management framework. This risk-based framework should encourage development of innovative technologies that result in microbial safety levels equivalent to those achieved with traditional processing methods.
Safety assessment in plant layout design using indexing approach: implementing inherent safety perspective. Part 1 - guideword applicability and method description.

PubMed

Tugnoli, Alessandro; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul; Cozzani, Valerio

2008-12-15

Layout planning plays a key role in the inherent safety performance of process plants since this design feature controls the possibility of accidental chain-events and the magnitude of possible consequences. A lack of suitable methods to promote the effective implementation of inherent safety in layout design calls for the development of new techniques and methods. In the present paper, a safety assessment approach suitable for layout design in the critical early phase is proposed. The concept of inherent safety is implemented within this safety assessment; the approach is based on an integrated assessment of inherent safety guideword applicability within the constraints typically present in layout design. Application of these guidewords is evaluated along with unit hazards and control devices to quantitatively map the safety performance of different layout options. Moreover, the economic aspects related to safety and inherent safety are evaluated by the method. Specific sub-indices are developed within the integrated safety assessment system to analyze and quantify the hazard related to domino effects. The proposed approach is quick in application, auditable and shares a common framework applicable in other phases of the design lifecycle (e.g. process design). The present work is divided in two parts: Part 1 (current paper) presents the application of inherent safety guidelines in layout design and the index method for safety assessment; Part 2 (accompanying paper) describes the domino hazard sub-index and demonstrates the proposed approach with a case study, thus evidencing the introduction of inherent safety features in layout design.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kiselyov, V.A.; Sokov, L.M.

The LBB regulatory approach adopted in Russia in 1993 as an extra safety barrier is described for advanced WWER 1000 reactor steamline. The application of LBB concept requires the following additional protections. First, the steamline should be a highly qualified piping, performed in accordance with the applicable regulations and guidelines, carefully screened to verify that it is not subjected to any disqualifying failure mechanism. Second, a deterministic fracture mechanics analysis and leak rate evaluation have been performed to demonstrate that postulated through-wall crack that yields 95 1/min at normal operation conditions is stable even under seismic loads. Finally, it hasmore » been verified that the leak detection systems are sufficiently reliable, diverse and sensitive, and that adequate margins exist to detect a through wall crack smaller than the critical size. The obtained results are encouraging and show the possibility of the application of the LBB case to the steamline of advanced WWER 1000 reactor.« less
Uncertainty Quantification in Aeroelasticity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beran, Philip; Stanford, Bret; Schrock, Christopher

2017-01-01

Physical interactions between a fluid and structure, potentially manifested as self-sustained or divergent oscillations, can be sensitive to many parameters whose values are uncertain. Of interest here are aircraft aeroelastic interactions, which must be accounted for in aircraft certification and design. Deterministic prediction of these aeroelastic behaviors can be difficult owing to physical and computational complexity. New challenges are introduced when physical parameters and elements of the modeling process are uncertain. By viewing aeroelasticity through a nondeterministic prism, where key quantities are assumed stochastic, one may gain insights into how to reduce system uncertainty, increase system robustness, and maintain aeroelastic safety. This article reviews uncertainty quantification in aeroelasticity using traditional analytical techniques not reliant on computational fluid dynamics; compares and contrasts this work with emerging methods based on computational fluid dynamics, which target richer physics; and reviews the state of the art in aeroelastic optimization under uncertainty. Barriers to continued progress, for example, the so-called curse of dimensionality, are discussed.
Quantifying diffusion MRI tractography of the corticospinal tract in brain tumors with deterministic and probabilistic methods☆

PubMed Central

Bucci, Monica; Mandelli, Maria Luisa; Berman, Jeffrey I.; Amirbekian, Bagrat; Nguyen, Christopher; Berger, Mitchel S.; Henry, Roland G.

2013-01-01

Introduction Diffusion MRI tractography has been increasingly used to delineate white matter pathways in vivo for which the leading clinical application is presurgical mapping of eloquent regions. However, there is rare opportunity to quantify the accuracy or sensitivity of these approaches to delineate white matter fiber pathways in vivo due to the lack of a gold standard. Intraoperative electrical stimulation (IES) provides a gold standard for the location and existence of functional motor pathways that can be used to determine the accuracy and sensitivity of fiber tracking algorithms. In this study we used intraoperative stimulation from brain tumor patients as a gold standard to estimate the sensitivity and accuracy of diffusion tensor MRI (DTI) and q-ball models of diffusion with deterministic and probabilistic fiber tracking algorithms for delineation of motor pathways. Methods We used preoperative high angular resolution diffusion MRI (HARDI) data (55 directions, b = 2000 s/mm2) acquired in a clinically feasible time frame from 12 patients who underwent a craniotomy for resection of a cerebral glioma. The corticospinal fiber tracts were delineated with DTI and q-ball models using deterministic and probabilistic algorithms. We used cortical and white matter IES sites as a gold standard for the presence and location of functional motor pathways. Sensitivity was defined as the true positive rate of delineating fiber pathways based on cortical IES stimulation sites. For accuracy and precision of the course of the fiber tracts, we measured the distance between the subcortical stimulation sites and the tractography result. Positive predictive rate of the delineated tracts was assessed by comparison of subcortical IES motor function (upper extremity, lower extremity, face) with the connection of the tractography pathway in the motor cortex. Results We obtained 21 cortical and 8 subcortical IES sites from intraoperative mapping of motor pathways. Probabilistic q-ball had the best sensitivity (79%) as determined from cortical IES compared to deterministic q-ball (50%), probabilistic DTI (36%), and deterministic DTI (10%). The sensitivity using the q-ball algorithm (65%) was significantly higher than using DTI (23%) (p < 0.001) and the probabilistic algorithms (58%) were more sensitive than deterministic approaches (30%) (p = 0.003). Probabilistic q-ball fiber tracks had the smallest offset to the subcortical stimulation sites. The offsets between diffusion fiber tracks and subcortical IES sites were increased significantly for those cases where the diffusion fiber tracks were visibly thinner than expected. There was perfect concordance between the subcortical IES function (e.g. hand stimulation) and the cortical connection of the nearest diffusion fiber track (e.g. upper extremity cortex). Discussion This study highlights the tremendous utility of intraoperative stimulation sites to provide a gold standard from which to evaluate diffusion MRI fiber tracking methods and has provided an object standard for evaluation of different diffusion models and approaches to fiber tracking. The probabilistic q-ball fiber tractography was significantly better than DTI methods in terms of sensitivity and accuracy of the course through the white matter. The commonly used DTI fiber tracking approach was shown to have very poor sensitivity (as low as 10% for deterministic DTI fiber tracking) for delineation of the lateral aspects of the corticospinal tract in our study. Effects of the tumor/edema resulted in significantly larger offsets between the subcortical IES and the preoperative fiber tracks. The provided data show that probabilistic HARDI tractography is the most objective and reproducible analysis but given the small sample and number of stimulation points a generalization about our results should be given with caution. Indeed our results inform the capabilities of preoperative diffusion fiber tracking and indicate that such data should be used carefully when making pre-surgical and intra-operative management decisions. PMID:24273719
Asymmetrical Damage Partitioning in Bacteria: A Model for the Evolution of Stochasticity, Determinism, and Genetic Assimilation

PubMed Central

Chao, Lin; Rang, Camilla Ulla; Proenca, Audrey Menegaz; Chao, Jasper Ubirajara

2016-01-01

Non-genetic phenotypic variation is common in biological organisms. The variation is potentially beneficial if the environment is changing. If the benefit is large, selection can favor the evolution of genetic assimilation, the process by which the expression of a trait is transferred from environmental to genetic control. Genetic assimilation is an important evolutionary transition, but it is poorly understood because the fitness costs and benefits of variation are often unknown. Here we show that the partitioning of damage by a mother bacterium to its two daughters can evolve through genetic assimilation. Bacterial phenotypes are also highly variable. Because gene-regulating elements can have low copy numbers, the variation is attributed to stochastic sampling. Extant Escherichia coli partition asymmetrically and deterministically more damage to the old daughter, the one receiving the mother’s old pole. By modeling in silico damage partitioning in a population, we show that deterministic asymmetry is advantageous because it increases fitness variance and hence the efficiency of natural selection. However, we find that symmetrical but stochastic partitioning can be similarly beneficial. To examine why bacteria evolved deterministic asymmetry, we modeled the effect of damage anchored to the mother’s old pole. While anchored damage strengthens selection for asymmetry by creating additional fitness variance, it has the opposite effect on symmetry. The difference results because anchored damage reinforces the polarization of partitioning in asymmetric bacteria. In symmetric bacteria, it dilutes the polarization. Thus, stochasticity alone may have protected early bacteria from damage, but deterministic asymmetry has evolved to be equally important in extant bacteria. We estimate that 47% of damage partitioning is deterministic in E. coli. We suggest that the evolution of deterministic asymmetry from stochasticity offers an example of Waddington’s genetic assimilation. Our model is able to quantify the evolution of the assimilation because it characterizes the fitness consequences of variation. PMID:26761487
Asymmetrical Damage Partitioning in Bacteria: A Model for the Evolution of Stochasticity, Determinism, and Genetic Assimilation.

PubMed

Chao, Lin; Rang, Camilla Ulla; Proenca, Audrey Menegaz; Chao, Jasper Ubirajara

2016-01-01

Non-genetic phenotypic variation is common in biological organisms. The variation is potentially beneficial if the environment is changing. If the benefit is large, selection can favor the evolution of genetic assimilation, the process by which the expression of a trait is transferred from environmental to genetic control. Genetic assimilation is an important evolutionary transition, but it is poorly understood because the fitness costs and benefits of variation are often unknown. Here we show that the partitioning of damage by a mother bacterium to its two daughters can evolve through genetic assimilation. Bacterial phenotypes are also highly variable. Because gene-regulating elements can have low copy numbers, the variation is attributed to stochastic sampling. Extant Escherichia coli partition asymmetrically and deterministically more damage to the old daughter, the one receiving the mother's old pole. By modeling in silico damage partitioning in a population, we show that deterministic asymmetry is advantageous because it increases fitness variance and hence the efficiency of natural selection. However, we find that symmetrical but stochastic partitioning can be similarly beneficial. To examine why bacteria evolved deterministic asymmetry, we modeled the effect of damage anchored to the mother's old pole. While anchored damage strengthens selection for asymmetry by creating additional fitness variance, it has the opposite effect on symmetry. The difference results because anchored damage reinforces the polarization of partitioning in asymmetric bacteria. In symmetric bacteria, it dilutes the polarization. Thus, stochasticity alone may have protected early bacteria from damage, but deterministic asymmetry has evolved to be equally important in extant bacteria. We estimate that 47% of damage partitioning is deterministic in E. coli. We suggest that the evolution of deterministic asymmetry from stochasticity offers an example of Waddington's genetic assimilation. Our model is able to quantify the evolution of the assimilation because it characterizes the fitness consequences of variation.
Comparison of probabilistic and deterministic fiber tracking of cranial nerves.

PubMed

Zolal, Amir; Sobottka, Stephan B; Podlesek, Dino; Linn, Jennifer; Rieger, Bernhard; Juratli, Tareq A; Schackert, Gabriele; Kitzler, Hagen H

2017-09-01

OBJECTIVE The depiction of cranial nerves (CNs) using diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) is of great interest in skull base tumor surgery and DTI used with deterministic tracking methods has been reported previously. However, there are still no good methods usable for the elimination of noise from the resulting depictions. The authors have hypothesized that probabilistic tracking could lead to more accurate results, because it more efficiently extracts information from the underlying data. Moreover, the authors have adapted a previously described technique for noise elimination using gradual threshold increases to probabilistic tracking. To evaluate the utility of this new approach, a comparison is provided with this work between the gradual threshold increase method in probabilistic and deterministic tracking of CNs. METHODS Both tracking methods were used to depict CNs II, III, V, and the VII+VIII bundle. Depiction of 240 CNs was attempted with each of the above methods in 30 healthy subjects, which were obtained from 2 public databases: the Kirby repository (KR) and Human Connectome Project (HCP). Elimination of erroneous fibers was attempted by gradually increasing the respective thresholds (fractional anisotropy [FA] and probabilistic index of connectivity [PICo]). The results were compared with predefined ground truth images based on corresponding anatomical scans. Two label overlap measures (false-positive error and Dice similarity coefficient) were used to evaluate the success of both methods in depicting the CN. Moreover, the differences between these parameters obtained from the KR and HCP (with higher angular resolution) databases were evaluated. Additionally, visualization of 10 CNs in 5 clinical cases was attempted with both methods and evaluated by comparing the depictions with intraoperative findings. RESULTS Maximum Dice similarity coefficients were significantly higher with probabilistic tracking (p < 0.001; Wilcoxon signed-rank test). The false-positive error of the last obtained depiction was also significantly lower in probabilistic than in deterministic tracking (p < 0.001). The HCP data yielded significantly better results in terms of the Dice coefficient in probabilistic tracking (p < 0.001, Mann-Whitney U-test) and in deterministic tracking (p = 0.02). The false-positive errors were smaller in HCP data in deterministic tracking (p < 0.001) and showed a strong trend toward significance in probabilistic tracking (p = 0.06). In the clinical cases, the probabilistic method visualized 7 of 10 attempted CNs accurately, compared with 3 correct depictions with deterministic tracking. CONCLUSIONS High angular resolution DTI scans are preferable for the DTI-based depiction of the cranial nerves. Probabilistic tracking with a gradual PICo threshold increase is more effective for this task than the previously described deterministic tracking with a gradual FA threshold increase and might represent a method that is useful for depicting cranial nerves with DTI since it eliminates the erroneous fibers without manual intervention.
Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment at Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Site, Tennessee, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brandmayr, E.; Cameron, C.; Vaccari, F.; Fasan, M.; Romanelli, F.; Magrin, A.; Vlahovic, G.

2017-12-01

Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant (WBNPP) is located within the Eastern Tennessee Seismic Zone (ETSZ), the second most naturally active seismic zone in the US east of the Rocky Mountains. The largest instrumental earthquakes in the ETSZ are M 4.6, although paleoseismic evidence supports events of M≥6.5. Events are mainly strike-slip and occur on steeply dipping planes at an average depth of 13 km. In this work, we apply the neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment to estimate the potential seismic input at the plant site, which has been recently targeted by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission for a seismic hazard reevaluation. First, we perform a parametric test on some seismic source characteristics (i.e. distance, depth, strike, dip and rake) using a one-dimensional regional bedrock model to define the most conservative scenario earthquakes. Then, for the selected scenario earthquakes, the estimate of the ground motion input at WBNPP is refined using a two-dimensional local structural model (based on the plant's operator documentation) with topography, thus looking for site amplification and different possible rupture processes at the source. WBNNP features a safe shutdown earthquake (SSE) design with PGA of 0.18 g and maximum spectral amplification (SA, 5% damped) of 0.46 g (at periods between 0.15 and 0.5 s). Our results suggest that, although for most of the considered scenarios the PGA is relatively low, SSE values can be reached and exceeded in the case of the most conservative scenario earthquakes.
IMPLEMENTATION OF DEFENSE NUCLEAR FACILITY SAFETY BOARD RECOMMENDATION 2000-2 AT WIPP

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jackson, K.; Wu, C.

2002-02-26

The Defense Nuclear Safeties Board (DNFSB) issued Recommendation 2000-2 on March 8, 2000, concerning the degrading conditions of vital safety systems, or systems important to nuclear safety, at DOE sites across the nation. The Board recommended that the DOE take action to assess the condition of its nuclear systems to ensure continued operational readiness of vital safety systems that are important for safely accomplishing the DOE's mission. To verify the readiness of vital safety systems, a two-phased approach was established. Phase I consisted of a qualitative assessment to approved criteria of the defined vital safety systems by operating contractor personnel,more » overseen by Federal field office personnel. Based on Phase I Assessment results, vital safety systems with significant deficiencies would be further assessed in Phase II, a more extensive quantitative assessment, by a contractor and Federal team, using a second set of criteria. In addition, Defense Nuclear Facility Safety Board Recommendation 2000-2 concluded that the degradation of confinement ventilation systems was of major concern, and issued a separate set of criteria to perform a Phase II Assessment on confinement ventilation systems.« less
A Deterministic Electron, Photon, Proton and Heavy Ion Radiation Transport Suite for the Study of the Jovian System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Norman, Ryan B.; Badavi, Francis F.; Blattnig, Steve R.; Atwell, William

2011-01-01

A deterministic suite of radiation transport codes, developed at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC), which describe the transport of electrons, photons, protons, and heavy ions in condensed media is used to simulate exposures from spectral distributions typical of electrons, protons and carbon-oxygen-sulfur (C-O-S) trapped heavy ions in the Jovian radiation environment. The particle transport suite consists of a coupled electron and photon deterministic transport algorithm (CEPTRN) and a coupled light particle and heavy ion deterministic transport algorithm (HZETRN). The primary purpose for the development of the transport suite is to provide a means for the spacecraft design community to rapidly perform numerous repetitive calculations essential for electron, proton and heavy ion radiation exposure assessments in complex space structures. In this paper, the radiation environment of the Galilean satellite Europa is used as a representative boundary condition to show the capabilities of the transport suite. While the transport suite can directly access the output electron spectra of the Jovian environment as generated by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) Galileo Interim Radiation Electron (GIRE) model of 2003; for the sake of relevance to the upcoming Europa Jupiter System Mission (EJSM), the 105 days at Europa mission fluence energy spectra provided by JPL is used to produce the corresponding dose-depth curve in silicon behind an aluminum shield of 100 mils ( 0.7 g/sq cm). The transport suite can also accept ray-traced thickness files from a computer-aided design (CAD) package and calculate the total ionizing dose (TID) at a specific target point. In that regard, using a low-fidelity CAD model of the Galileo probe, the transport suite was verified by comparing with Monte Carlo (MC) simulations for orbits JOI--J35 of the Galileo extended mission (1996-2001). For the upcoming EJSM mission with a potential launch date of 2020, the transport suite is used to compute the traditional aluminum-silicon dose-depth calculation as a standard shield-target combination output, as well as the shielding response of high charge (Z) shields such as tantalum (Ta). Finally, a shield optimization algorithm is used to guide the instrument designer with the choice of graded-Z shield analysis.
State of art of seismic design and seismic hazard analysis for oil and gas pipeline system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Aiwen; Chen, Kun; Wu, Jian

2010-06-01

The purpose of this paper is to adopt the uniform confidence method in both water pipeline design and oil-gas pipeline design. Based on the importance of pipeline and consequence of its failure, oil and gas pipeline can be classified into three pipe classes, with exceeding probabilities over 50 years of 2%, 5% and 10%, respectively. Performance-based design requires more information about ground motion, which should be obtained by evaluating seismic safety for pipeline engineering site. Different from a city’s water pipeline network, the long-distance oil and gas pipeline system is a spatially linearly distributed system. For the uniform confidence of seismic safety, a long-distance oil and pipeline formed with pump stations and different-class pipe segments should be considered as a whole system when analyzing seismic risk. Considering the uncertainty of earthquake magnitude, the design-basis fault displacements corresponding to the different pipeline classes are proposed to improve deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA). A new empirical relationship between the maximum fault displacement and the surface-wave magnitude is obtained with the supplemented earthquake data in East Asia. The estimation of fault displacement for a refined oil pipeline in Wenchuan M S8.0 earthquake is introduced as an example in this paper.
Aspen succession in the Intermountain West: A deterministic model

Treesearch

Dale L. Bartos; Frederick R. Ward; George S. Innis

1983-01-01

A deterministic model of succession in aspen forests was developed using existing data and intuition. The degree of uncertainty, which was determined by allowing the parameter values to vary at random within limits, was larger than desired. This report presents results of an analysis of model sensitivity to changes in parameter values. These results have indicated...
Using stochastic models to incorporate spatial and temporal variability [Exercise 14

Treesearch

Carolyn Hull Sieg; Rudy M. King; Fred Van Dyke

2003-01-01

To this point, our analysis of population processes and viability in the western prairie fringed orchid has used only deterministic models. In this exercise, we conduct a similar analysis, using a stochastic model instead. This distinction is of great importance to population biology in general and to conservation biology in particular. In deterministic models,...
Guidelines 13 and 14—Prediction uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hill, Mary C.; Tiedeman, Claire

2005-01-01

An advantage of using optimization for model development and calibration is that optimization provides methods for evaluating and quantifying prediction uncertainty. Both deterministic and statistical methods can be used. Guideline 13 discusses using regression and post-audits, which we classify as deterministic methods. Guideline 14 discusses inferential statistics and Monte Carlo methods, which we classify as statistical methods.

Deterministic switching of hierarchy during wrinkling in quasi-planar bilayers

DOE PAGES

Saha, Sourabh K.; Culpepper, Martin L.

2016-04-25

Emergence of hierarchy during compression of quasi-planar bilayers is preceded by a mode-locked state during which the quasi-planar form persists. Transition to hierarchy is determined entirely by geometrically observable parameters. This results in a universal transition phase diagram that enables one to deterministically tune hierarchy even with limited knowledge about material properties.
Stochastic and deterministic models for agricultural production networks.

PubMed

Bai, P; Banks, H T; Dediu, S; Govan, A Y; Last, M; Lloyd, A L; Nguyen, H K; Olufsen, M S; Rempala, G; Slenning, B D

2007-07-01

An approach to modeling the impact of disturbances in an agricultural production network is presented. A stochastic model and its approximate deterministic model for averages over sample paths of the stochastic system are developed. Simulations, sensitivity and generalized sensitivity analyses are given. Finally, it is shown how diseases may be introduced into the network and corresponding simulations are discussed.
Probabilistic direct counterfactual quantum communication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Sheng

2017-02-01

It is striking that the quantum Zeno effect can be used to launch a direct counterfactual communication between two spatially separated parties, Alice and Bob. So far, existing protocols of this type only provide a deterministic counterfactual communication service. However, this counterfactuality should be payed at a price. Firstly, the transmission time is much longer than a classical transmission costs. Secondly, the chained-cycle structure makes them more sensitive to channel noises. Here, we extend the idea of counterfactual communication, and present a probabilistic-counterfactual quantum communication protocol, which is proved to have advantages over the deterministic ones. Moreover, the presented protocol could evolve to a deterministic one solely by adjusting the parameters of the beam splitters. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 61300203).
Positive dwell time algorithm with minimum equal extra material removal in deterministic optical surfacing technology.

PubMed

Li, Longxiang; Xue, Donglin; Deng, Weijie; Wang, Xu; Bai, Yang; Zhang, Feng; Zhang, Xuejun

2017-11-10

In deterministic computer-controlled optical surfacing, accurate dwell time execution by computer numeric control machines is crucial in guaranteeing a high-convergence ratio for the optical surface error. It is necessary to consider the machine dynamics limitations in the numerical dwell time algorithms. In this paper, these constraints on dwell time distribution are analyzed, and a model of the equal extra material removal is established. A positive dwell time algorithm with minimum equal extra material removal is developed. Results of simulations based on deterministic magnetorheological finishing demonstrate the necessity of considering machine dynamics performance and illustrate the validity of the proposed algorithm. Indeed, the algorithm effectively facilitates the determinacy of sub-aperture optical surfacing processes.
Flow injection analysis simulations and diffusion coefficient determination by stochastic and deterministic optimization methods.

PubMed

Kucza, Witold

2013-07-25

Stochastic and deterministic simulations of dispersion in cylindrical channels on the Poiseuille flow have been presented. The random walk (stochastic) and the uniform dispersion (deterministic) models have been used for computations of flow injection analysis responses. These methods coupled with the genetic algorithm and the Levenberg-Marquardt optimization methods, respectively, have been applied for determination of diffusion coefficients. The diffusion coefficients of fluorescein sodium, potassium hexacyanoferrate and potassium dichromate have been determined by means of the presented methods and FIA responses that are available in literature. The best-fit results agree with each other and with experimental data thus validating both presented approaches. Copyright © 2013 The Author. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Probabilistic biosphere modeling for the long-term safety assessment of geological disposal facilities for radioactive waste using first- and second-order Monte Carlo simulation.

PubMed

Ciecior, Willy; Röhlig, Klaus-Jürgen; Kirchner, Gerald

2018-10-01

In the present paper, deterministic as well as first- and second-order probabilistic biosphere modeling approaches are compared. Furthermore, the sensitivity of the influence of the probability distribution function shape (empirical distribution functions and fitted lognormal probability functions) representing the aleatory uncertainty (also called variability) of a radioecological model parameter as well as the role of interacting parameters are studied. Differences in the shape of the output distributions for the biosphere dose conversion factor from first-order Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis using empirical and fitted lognormal distribution functions for input parameters suggest that a lognormal approximation is possibly not always an adequate representation of the aleatory uncertainty of a radioecological parameter. Concerning the comparison of the impact of aleatory and epistemic parameter uncertainty on the biosphere dose conversion factor, the latter here is described using uncertain moments (mean, variance) while the distribution itself represents the aleatory uncertainty of the parameter. From the results obtained, the solution space of second-order Monte Carlo simulation is much larger than that from first-order Monte Carlo simulation. Therefore, the influence of epistemic uncertainty of a radioecological parameter on the output result is much larger than that one caused by its aleatory uncertainty. Parameter interactions are only of significant influence in the upper percentiles of the distribution of results as well as only in the region of the upper percentiles of the model parameters. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Physical basis of radiation protection in space travel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Durante, Marco; Cucinotta, Francis A.

2011-10-01

The health risks of space radiation are arguably the most serious challenge to space exploration, possibly preventing these missions due to safety concerns or increasing their costs to amounts beyond what would be acceptable. Radiation in space is substantially different from Earth: high-energy (E) and charge (Z) particles (HZE) provide the main contribution to the equivalent dose in deep space, whereas γ rays and low-energy α particles are major contributors on Earth. This difference causes a high uncertainty on the estimated radiation health risk (including cancer and noncancer effects), and makes protection extremely difficult. In fact, shielding is very difficult in space: the very high energy of the cosmic rays and the severe mass constraints in spaceflight represent a serious hindrance to effective shielding. Here the physical basis of space radiation protection is described, including the most recent achievements in space radiation transport codes and shielding approaches. Although deterministic and Monte Carlo transport codes can now describe well the interaction of cosmic rays with matter, more accurate double-differential nuclear cross sections are needed to improve the codes. Energy deposition in biological molecules and related effects should also be developed to achieve accurate risk models for long-term exploratory missions. Passive shielding can be effective for solar particle events; however, it is limited for galactic cosmic rays (GCR). Active shielding would have to overcome challenging technical hurdles to protect against GCR. Thus, improved risk assessment and genetic and biomedical approaches are a more likely solution to GCR radiation protection issues.
Safety Assessment of Polyether Lanolins as Used in Cosmetics.

PubMed

Becker, Lillian C; Bergfeld, Wilma F; Belsito, Donald V; Hill, Ronald A; Klaassen, Curtis D; Liebler, Daniel C; Marks, James G; Shank, Ronald C; Slaga, Thomas J; Snyder, Paul W; Andersen, F Alan; Heldreth, Bart

The Cosmetic Ingredient Review (CIR) Expert Panel (Panel) assessed the safety of 39 polyether lanolin ingredients as used in cosmetics. These ingredients function mostly as hair conditioning agents, skin conditioning agent-emollients, and surfactant-emulsifying agents. The Panel reviewed available animal and clinical data, from previous CIR safety assessments of related ingredients and components. The similar structure, properties, functions, and uses of these ingredients enabled grouping them and using the available toxicological data to assess the safety of the entire group. The Panel concluded that these polyether lanolin ingredients are safe in the practices of use and concentration as given in this safety assessment.
Probabilistic eruption forecasting at short and long time scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marzocchi, Warner; Bebbington, Mark S.

2012-10-01

Any effective volcanic risk mitigation strategy requires a scientific assessment of the future evolution of a volcanic system and its eruptive behavior. Some consider the onus should be on volcanologists to provide simple but emphatic deterministic forecasts. This traditional way of thinking, however, does not deal with the implications of inherent uncertainties, both aleatoric and epistemic, that are inevitably present in observations, monitoring data, and interpretation of any natural system. In contrast to deterministic predictions, probabilistic eruption forecasting attempts to quantify these inherent uncertainties utilizing all available information to the extent that it can be relied upon and is informative. As with many other natural hazards, probabilistic eruption forecasting is becoming established as the primary scientific basis for planning rational risk mitigation actions: at short-term (hours to weeks or months), it allows decision-makers to prioritize actions in a crisis; and at long-term (years to decades), it is the basic component for land use and emergency planning. Probabilistic eruption forecasting consists of estimating the probability of an eruption event and where it sits in a complex multidimensional time-space-magnitude framework. In this review, we discuss the key developments and features of models that have been used to address the problem.
Efficient Characterization of Parametric Uncertainty of Complex (Bio)chemical Networks.

PubMed

Schillings, Claudia; Sunnåker, Mikael; Stelling, Jörg; Schwab, Christoph

2015-08-01

Parametric uncertainty is a particularly challenging and relevant aspect of systems analysis in domains such as systems biology where, both for inference and for assessing prediction uncertainties, it is essential to characterize the system behavior globally in the parameter space. However, current methods based on local approximations or on Monte-Carlo sampling cope only insufficiently with high-dimensional parameter spaces associated with complex network models. Here, we propose an alternative deterministic methodology that relies on sparse polynomial approximations. We propose a deterministic computational interpolation scheme which identifies most significant expansion coefficients adaptively. We present its performance in kinetic model equations from computational systems biology with several hundred parameters and state variables, leading to numerical approximations of the parametric solution on the entire parameter space. The scheme is based on adaptive Smolyak interpolation of the parametric solution at judiciously and adaptively chosen points in parameter space. As Monte-Carlo sampling, it is "non-intrusive" and well-suited for massively parallel implementation, but affords higher convergence rates. This opens up new avenues for large-scale dynamic network analysis by enabling scaling for many applications, including parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification, and systems design.
Efficient Characterization of Parametric Uncertainty of Complex (Bio)chemical Networks

PubMed Central

Schillings, Claudia; Sunnåker, Mikael; Stelling, Jörg; Schwab, Christoph

2015-01-01

Parametric uncertainty is a particularly challenging and relevant aspect of systems analysis in domains such as systems biology where, both for inference and for assessing prediction uncertainties, it is essential to characterize the system behavior globally in the parameter space. However, current methods based on local approximations or on Monte-Carlo sampling cope only insufficiently with high-dimensional parameter spaces associated with complex network models. Here, we propose an alternative deterministic methodology that relies on sparse polynomial approximations. We propose a deterministic computational interpolation scheme which identifies most significant expansion coefficients adaptively. We present its performance in kinetic model equations from computational systems biology with several hundred parameters and state variables, leading to numerical approximations of the parametric solution on the entire parameter space. The scheme is based on adaptive Smolyak interpolation of the parametric solution at judiciously and adaptively chosen points in parameter space. As Monte-Carlo sampling, it is “non-intrusive” and well-suited for massively parallel implementation, but affords higher convergence rates. This opens up new avenues for large-scale dynamic network analysis by enabling scaling for many applications, including parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification, and systems design. PMID:26317784
Uncertainty Quantification of Non-linear Oscillation Triggering in a Multi-injector Liquid-propellant Rocket Combustion Chamber

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Popov, Pavel; Sideris, Athanasios; Sirignano, William

2014-11-01

We examine the non-linear dynamics of the transverse modes of combustion-driven acoustic instability in a liquid-propellant rocket engine. Triggering can occur, whereby small perturbations from mean conditions decay, while larger disturbances grow to a limit-cycle of amplitude that may compare to the mean pressure. For a deterministic perturbation, the system is also deterministic, computed by coupled finite-volume solvers at low computational cost for a single realization. The randomness of the triggering disturbance is captured by treating the injector flow rates, local pressure disturbances, and sudden acceleration of the entire combustion chamber as random variables. The combustor chamber with its many sub-fields resulting from many injector ports may be viewed as a multi-scale complex system wherein the developing acoustic oscillation is the emergent structure. Numerical simulation of the resulting stochastic PDE system is performed using the polynomial chaos expansion method. The overall probability of unstable growth is assessed in different regions of the parameter space. We address, in particular, the seven-injector, rectangular Purdue University experimental combustion chamber. In addition to the novel geometry, new features include disturbances caused by engine acceleration and unsteady thruster nozzle flow.
A procedure to select ground-motion time histories for deterministic seismic hazard analysis from the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Duruo; Du, Wenqi; Zhu, Hong

2017-10-01

In performance-based seismic design, ground-motion time histories are needed for analyzing dynamic responses of nonlinear structural systems. However, the number of ground-motion data at design level is often limited. In order to analyze seismic performance of structures, ground-motion time histories need to be either selected from recorded strong-motion database or numerically simulated using stochastic approaches. In this paper, a detailed procedure to select proper acceleration time histories from the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) database for several cities in Taiwan is presented. Target response spectra are initially determined based on a local ground-motion prediction equation under representative deterministic seismic hazard analyses. Then several suites of ground motions are selected for these cities using the Design Ground Motion Library (DGML), a recently proposed interactive ground-motion selection tool. The selected time histories are representatives of the regional seismic hazard and should be beneficial to earthquake studies when comprehensive seismic hazard assessments and site investigations are unavailable. Note that this method is also applicable to site-specific motion selections with the target spectra near the ground surface considering the site effect.
Entrepreneurs, chance, and the deterministic concentration of wealth.

PubMed

Fargione, Joseph E; Lehman, Clarence; Polasky, Stephen

2011-01-01

In many economies, wealth is strikingly concentrated. Entrepreneurs--individuals with ownership in for-profit enterprises--comprise a large portion of the wealthiest individuals, and their behavior may help explain patterns in the national distribution of wealth. Entrepreneurs are less diversified and more heavily invested in their own companies than is commonly assumed in economic models. We present an intentionally simplified individual-based model of wealth generation among entrepreneurs to assess the role of chance and determinism in the distribution of wealth. We demonstrate that chance alone, combined with the deterministic effects of compounding returns, can lead to unlimited concentration of wealth, such that the percentage of all wealth owned by a few entrepreneurs eventually approaches 100%. Specifically, concentration of wealth results when the rate of return on investment varies by entrepreneur and by time. This result is robust to inclusion of realities such as differing skill among entrepreneurs. The most likely overall growth rate of the economy decreases as businesses become less diverse, suggesting that high concentrations of wealth may adversely affect a country's economic growth. We show that a tax on large inherited fortunes, applied to a small portion of the most fortunate in the population, can efficiently arrest the concentration of wealth at intermediate levels.
Identification of the significant factors in food safety using global sensitivity analysis and the accept-and-reject algorithm: application to the cold chain of ham.

PubMed

Duret, Steven; Guillier, Laurent; Hoang, Hong-Minh; Flick, Denis; Laguerre, Onrawee

2014-06-16

Deterministic models describing heat transfer and microbial growth in the cold chain are widely studied. However, it is difficult to apply them in practice because of several variable parameters in the logistic supply chain (e.g., ambient temperature varying due to season and product residence time in refrigeration equipment), the product's characteristics (e.g., pH and water activity) and the microbial characteristics (e.g., initial microbial load and lag time). This variability can lead to different bacterial growth rates in food products and has to be considered to properly predict the consumer's exposure and identify the key parameters of the cold chain. This study proposes a new approach that combines deterministic (heat transfer) and stochastic (Monte Carlo) modeling to account for the variability in the logistic supply chain and the product's characteristics. The model generates a realistic time-temperature product history , contrary to existing modeling whose describe time-temperature profile Contrary to existing approaches that use directly a time-temperature profile, the proposed model predicts product temperature evolution from the thermostat setting and the ambient temperature. The developed methodology was applied to the cold chain of cooked ham including, the display cabinet, transport by the consumer and the domestic refrigerator, to predict the evolution of state variables, such as the temperature and the growth of Listeria monocytogenes. The impacts of the input factors were calculated and ranked. It was found that the product's time-temperature history and the initial contamination level are the main causes of consumers' exposure. Then, a refined analysis was applied, revealing the importance of consumer behaviors on Listeria monocytogenes exposure. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.
Computation of probabilistic hazard maps and source parameter estimation for volcanic ash transport and dispersion

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Madankan, R.; Pouget, S.; Singla, P., E-mail: psingla@buffalo.edu

Volcanic ash advisory centers are charged with forecasting the movement of volcanic ash plumes, for aviation, health and safety preparation. Deterministic mathematical equations model the advection and dispersion of these plumes. However initial plume conditions – height, profile of particle location, volcanic vent parameters – are known only approximately at best, and other features of the governing system such as the windfield are stochastic. These uncertainties make forecasting plume motion difficult. As a result of these uncertainties, ash advisories based on a deterministic approach tend to be conservative, and many times over/under estimate the extent of a plume. This papermore » presents an end-to-end framework for generating a probabilistic approach to ash plume forecasting. This framework uses an ensemble of solutions, guided by Conjugate Unscented Transform (CUT) method for evaluating expectation integrals. This ensemble is used to construct a polynomial chaos expansion that can be sampled cheaply, to provide a probabilistic model forecast. The CUT method is then combined with a minimum variance condition, to provide a full posterior pdf of the uncertain source parameters, based on observed satellite imagery. The April 2010 eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland is employed as a test example. The puff advection/dispersion model is used to hindcast the motion of the ash plume through time, concentrating on the period 14–16 April 2010. Variability in the height and particle loading of that eruption is introduced through a volcano column model called bent. Output uncertainty due to the assumed uncertain input parameter probability distributions, and a probabilistic spatial-temporal estimate of ash presence are computed.« less
49 CFR Appendix F to Part 236 - Minimum Requirements of FRA Directed Independent Third-Party Assessment of PTC System Safety...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... Third-Party Assessment of PTC System Safety Verification and Validation F Appendix F to Part 236... Safety Verification and Validation (a) This appendix provides minimum requirements for mandatory independent third-party assessment of PTC system safety verification and validation pursuant to subpart H or I...
49 CFR Appendix F to Part 236 - Minimum Requirements of FRA Directed Independent Third-Party Assessment of PTC System Safety...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... Third-Party Assessment of PTC System Safety Verification and Validation F Appendix F to Part 236... Safety Verification and Validation (a) This appendix provides minimum requirements for mandatory independent third-party assessment of PTC system safety verification and validation pursuant to subpart H or I...
49 CFR Appendix F to Part 236 - Minimum Requirements of FRA Directed Independent Third-Party Assessment of PTC System Safety...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... Third-Party Assessment of PTC System Safety Verification and Validation F Appendix F to Part 236... Safety Verification and Validation (a) This appendix provides minimum requirements for mandatory independent third-party assessment of PTC system safety verification and validation pursuant to subpart H or I...
49 CFR Appendix F to Part 236 - Minimum Requirements of FRA Directed Independent Third-Party Assessment of PTC System Safety...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... Third-Party Assessment of PTC System Safety Verification and Validation F Appendix F to Part 236... Safety Verification and Validation (a) This appendix provides minimum requirements for mandatory independent third-party assessment of PTC system safety verification and validation pursuant to subpart H or I...

Probabilistic volcanic hazard assessments of Pyroclastic Density Currents: ongoing practices and future perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tierz, Pablo; Sandri, Laura; Ramona Stefanescu, Elena; Patra, Abani; Marzocchi, Warner; Costa, Antonio; Sulpizio, Roberto

2014-05-01

Explosive volcanoes and, especially, Pyroclastic Density Currents (PDCs) pose an enormous threat to populations living in the surroundings of volcanic areas. Difficulties in the modeling of PDCs are related to (i) very complex and stochastic physical processes, intrinsic to their occurrence, and (ii) to a lack of knowledge about how these processes actually form and evolve. This means that there are deep uncertainties (namely, of aleatory nature due to point (i) above, and of epistemic nature due to point (ii) above) associated to the study and forecast of PDCs. Consequently, the assessment of their hazard is better described in terms of probabilistic approaches rather than by deterministic ones. What is actually done to assess probabilistic hazard from PDCs is to couple deterministic simulators with statistical techniques that can, eventually, supply probabilities and inform about the uncertainties involved. In this work, some examples of both PDC numerical simulators (Energy Cone and TITAN2D) and uncertainty quantification techniques (Monte Carlo sampling -MC-, Polynomial Chaos Quadrature -PCQ- and Bayesian Linear Emulation -BLE-) are presented, and their advantages, limitations and future potential are underlined. The key point in choosing a specific method leans on the balance between its related computational cost, the physical reliability of the simulator and the pursued target of the hazard analysis (type of PDCs considered, time-scale selected for the analysis, particular guidelines received from decision-making agencies, etc.). Although current numerical and statistical techniques have brought important advances in probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment from PDCs, some of them may be further applicable to more sophisticated simulators. In addition, forthcoming improvements could be focused on three main multidisciplinary directions: 1) Validate the simulators frequently used (through comparison with PDC deposits and other simulators), 2) Decrease simulator runtimes (whether by increasing the knowledge about the physical processes or by doing more efficient programming, parallelization, ...) and 3) Improve uncertainty quantification techniques.
Seismic hazard assessment of the cultural heritage sites: A case study in Cappadocia (Turkey)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seyrek, Evren; Orhan, Ahmet; Dinçer, İsmail

2014-05-01

Turkey is one of the most seismically active regions in the world. Major earthquakes with the potential of threatening life and property occur frequently here. In the last decade, over 50,000 residents lost their lives, commonly as a result of building failures in seismic events. The Cappadocia region is one of the most important touristic sites in Turkey. At the same time, the region has been included to the Word Heritage List by UNESCO at 1985 due to its natural, historical and cultural values. The region is undesirably affected by several environmental conditions, which are subjected in many previous studies. But, there are limited studies about the seismic evaluation of the region. Some of the important historical and cultural heritage sites are: Goreme Open Air Museum, Uchisar Castle, Ortahisar Castle, Derinkuyu Underground City and Ihlara Valley. According to seismic hazard zonation map published by the Ministry of Reconstruction and Settlement these heritage sites fall in Zone III, Zone IV and Zone V. This map show peak ground acceleration or 10 percent probability of exceedance in 50 years for bedrock. In this connection, seismic hazard assessment of these heritage sites has to be evaluated. In this study, seismic hazard calculations are performed both deterministic and probabilistic approaches with local site conditions. A catalog of historical and instrumental earthquakes is prepared and used in this study. The seismic sources have been identified for seismic hazard assessment based on geological, seismological and geophysical information. Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) at bed rock level is calculated for different seismic sources using available attenuation relationship formula applicable to Turkey. The result of the present study reveals that the seismic hazard at these sites is closely matching with the Seismic Zonation map published by the Ministry of Reconstruction and Settlement. Keywords: Seismic Hazard Assessment, Probabilistic Approach, Deterministic Approach, Historical Heritage, Cappadocia.
Novel approaches to assess the quality of fertility data stored in dairy herd management software.

PubMed

Hermans, K; Waegeman, W; Opsomer, G; Van Ranst, B; De Koster, J; Van Eetvelde, M; Hostens, M

2017-05-01

Scientific journals and popular press magazines are littered with articles in which the authors use data from dairy herd management software. Almost none of such papers include data cleaning and data quality assessment in their study design despite this being a very critical step during data mining. This paper presents 2 novel data cleaning methods that permit identification of animals with good and bad data quality. The first method is a deterministic or rule-based data cleaning method. Reproduction and mutation or life-changing events such as birth and death were converted to a symbolic (alphabetical letter) representation and split into triplets (3-letter code). The triplets were manually labeled as physiologically correct, suspicious, or impossible. The deterministic data cleaning method was applied to assess the quality of data stored in dairy herd management from 26 farms enrolled in the herd health management program from the Faculty of Veterinary Medicine Ghent University, Belgium. In total, 150,443 triplets were created, 65.4% were labeled as correct, 17.4% as suspicious, and 17.2% as impossible. The second method, a probabilistic method, uses a machine learning algorithm (random forests) to predict the correctness of fertility and mutation events in an early stage of data cleaning. The prediction accuracy of the random forests algorithm was compared with a classical linear statistical method (penalized logistic regression), outperforming the latter substantially, with a superior receiver operating characteristic curve and a higher accuracy (89 vs. 72%). From those results, we conclude that the triplet method can be used to assess the quality of reproduction data stored in dairy herd management software and that a machine learning technique such as random forests is capable of predicting the correctness of fertility data. Copyright © 2017 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Invited Review: A review of deterministic effects in cyclic variability of internal combustion engines

DOE PAGES

Finney, Charles E.; Kaul, Brian C.; Daw, C. Stuart; ...

2015-02-18

Here we review developments in the understanding of cycle to cycle variability in internal combustion engines, with a focus on spark-ignited and premixed combustion conditions. Much of the research on cyclic variability has focused on stochastic aspects, that is, features that can be modeled as inherently random with no short term predictability. In some cases, models of this type appear to work very well at describing experimental observations, but the lack of predictability limits control options. Also, even when the statistical properties of the stochastic variations are known, it can be very difficult to discern their underlying physical causes andmore » thus mitigate them. Some recent studies have demonstrated that under some conditions, cyclic combustion variations can have a relatively high degree of low dimensional deterministic structure, which implies some degree of predictability and potential for real time control. These deterministic effects are typically more pronounced near critical stability limits (e.g. near tipping points associated with ignition or flame propagation) such during highly dilute fueling or near the onset of homogeneous charge compression ignition. We review recent progress in experimental and analytical characterization of cyclic variability where low dimensional, deterministic effects have been observed. We describe some theories about the sources of these dynamical features and discuss prospects for interactive control and improved engine designs. In conclusion, taken as a whole, the research summarized here implies that the deterministic component of cyclic variability will become a pivotal issue (and potential opportunity) as engine manufacturers strive to meet aggressive emissions and fuel economy regulations in the coming decades.« less
Disentangling mechanisms that mediate the balance between stochastic and deterministic processes in microbial succession.

PubMed

Dini-Andreote, Francisco; Stegen, James C; van Elsas, Jan Dirk; Salles, Joana Falcão

2015-03-17

Ecological succession and the balance between stochastic and deterministic processes are two major themes within microbial ecology, but these conceptual domains have mostly developed independent of each other. Here we provide a framework that integrates shifts in community assembly processes with microbial primary succession to better understand mechanisms governing the stochastic/deterministic balance. Synthesizing previous work, we devised a conceptual model that links ecosystem development to alternative hypotheses related to shifts in ecological assembly processes. Conceptual model hypotheses were tested by coupling spatiotemporal data on soil bacterial communities with environmental conditions in a salt marsh chronosequence spanning 105 years of succession. Analyses within successional stages showed community composition to be initially governed by stochasticity, but as succession proceeded, there was a progressive increase in deterministic selection correlated with increasing sodium concentration. Analyses of community turnover among successional stages--which provide a larger spatiotemporal scale relative to within stage analyses--revealed that changes in the concentration of soil organic matter were the main predictor of the type and relative influence of determinism. Taken together, these results suggest scale-dependency in the mechanisms underlying selection. To better understand mechanisms governing these patterns, we developed an ecological simulation model that revealed how changes in selective environments cause shifts in the stochastic/deterministic balance. Finally, we propose an extended--and experimentally testable--conceptual model integrating ecological assembly processes with primary and secondary succession. This framework provides a priori hypotheses for future experiments, thereby facilitating a systematic approach to understand assembly and succession in microbial communities across ecosystems.
Efficient Algorithms for Handling Nondeterministic Automata

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vojnar, Tomáš

Finite (word, tree, or omega) automata play an important role in different areas of computer science, including, for instance, formal verification. Often, deterministic automata are used for which traditional algorithms for important operations such as minimisation and inclusion checking are available. However, the use of deterministic automata implies a need to determinise nondeterministic automata that often arise during various computations even when the computations start with deterministic automata. Unfortunately, determinisation is a very expensive step since deterministic automata may be exponentially bigger than the original nondeterministic automata. That is why, it appears advantageous to avoid determinisation and work directly with nondeterministic automata. This, however, brings a need to be able to implement operations traditionally done on deterministic automata on nondeterministic automata instead. In particular, this is the case of inclusion checking and minimisation (or rather reduction of the size of automata). In the talk, we review several recently proposed techniques for inclusion checking on nondeterministic finite word and tree automata as well as Büchi automata. These techniques are based on using the so called antichains, possibly combined with a use of suitable simulation relations (and, in the case of Büchi automata, the so called Ramsey-based or rank-based approaches). Further, we discuss techniques for reducing the size of nondeterministic word and tree automata using quotienting based on the recently proposed notion of mediated equivalences. The talk is based on several common works with Parosh Aziz Abdulla, Ahmed Bouajjani, Yu-Fang Chen, Peter Habermehl, Lisa Kaati, Richard Mayr, Tayssir Touili, Lorenzo Clemente, Lukáš Holík, and Chih-Duo Hong.
Deterministic influences exceed dispersal effects on hydrologically-connected microbiomes: Deterministic assembly of hyporheic microbiomes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Graham, Emily B.; Crump, Alex R.; Resch, Charles T.

2017-03-28

Subsurface zones of groundwater and surface water mixing (hyporheic zones) are regions of enhanced rates of biogeochemical cycling, yet ecological processes governing hyporheic microbiome composition and function through space and time remain unknown. We sampled attached and planktonic microbiomes in the Columbia River hyporheic zone across seasonal hydrologic change, and employed statistical null models to infer mechanisms generating temporal changes in microbiomes within three hydrologically-connected, physicochemically-distinct geographic zones (inland, nearshore, river). We reveal that microbiomes remain dissimilar through time across all zones and habitat types (attached vs. planktonic) and that deterministic assembly processes regulate microbiome composition in all data subsets.more » The consistent presence of heterotrophic taxa and members of the Planctomycetes-Verrucomicrobia-Chlamydiae (PVC) superphylum nonetheless suggests common selective pressures for physiologies represented in these groups. Further, co-occurrence networks were used to provide insight into taxa most affected by deterministic assembly processes. We identified network clusters to represent groups of organisms that correlated with seasonal and physicochemical change. Extended network analyses identified keystone taxa within each cluster that we propose are central in microbiome composition and function. Finally, the abundance of one network cluster of nearshore organisms exhibited a seasonal shift from heterotrophic to autotrophic metabolisms and correlated with microbial metabolism, possibly indicating an ecological role for these organisms as foundational species in driving biogeochemical reactions within the hyporheic zone. Taken together, our research demonstrates a predominant role for deterministic assembly across highly-connected environments and provides insight into niche dynamics associated with seasonal changes in hyporheic microbiome composition and metabolism.« less
Theory and applications of a deterministic approximation to the coalescent model

PubMed Central

Jewett, Ethan M.; Rosenberg, Noah A.

2014-01-01

Under the coalescent model, the random number nt of lineages ancestral to a sample is nearly deterministic as a function of time when nt is moderate to large in value, and it is well approximated by its expectation E[nt]. In turn, this expectation is well approximated by simple deterministic functions that are easy to compute. Such deterministic functions have been applied to estimate allele age, effective population size, and genetic diversity, and they have been used to study properties of models of infectious disease dynamics. Although a number of simple approximations of E[nt] have been derived and applied to problems of population-genetic inference, the theoretical accuracy of the formulas and the inferences obtained using these approximations is not known, and the range of problems to which they can be applied is not well understood. Here, we demonstrate general procedures by which the approximation nt ≈ E[nt] can be used to reduce the computational complexity of coalescent formulas, and we show that the resulting approximations converge to their true values under simple assumptions. Such approximations provide alternatives to exact formulas that are computationally intractable or numerically unstable when the number of sampled lineages is moderate or large. We also extend an existing class of approximations of E[nt] to the case of multiple populations of time-varying size with migration among them. Our results facilitate the use of the deterministic approximation nt ≈ E[nt] for deriving functionally simple, computationally efficient, and numerically stable approximations of coalescent formulas under complicated demographic scenarios. PMID:24412419
Disentangling mechanisms that mediate the balance between stochastic and deterministic processes in microbial succession

PubMed Central

Dini-Andreote, Francisco; Stegen, James C.; van Elsas, Jan Dirk; Salles, Joana Falcão

2015-01-01

Ecological succession and the balance between stochastic and deterministic processes are two major themes within microbial ecology, but these conceptual domains have mostly developed independent of each other. Here we provide a framework that integrates shifts in community assembly processes with microbial primary succession to better understand mechanisms governing the stochastic/deterministic balance. Synthesizing previous work, we devised a conceptual model that links ecosystem development to alternative hypotheses related to shifts in ecological assembly processes. Conceptual model hypotheses were tested by coupling spatiotemporal data on soil bacterial communities with environmental conditions in a salt marsh chronosequence spanning 105 years of succession. Analyses within successional stages showed community composition to be initially governed by stochasticity, but as succession proceeded, there was a progressive increase in deterministic selection correlated with increasing sodium concentration. Analyses of community turnover among successional stages—which provide a larger spatiotemporal scale relative to within stage analyses—revealed that changes in the concentration of soil organic matter were the main predictor of the type and relative influence of determinism. Taken together, these results suggest scale-dependency in the mechanisms underlying selection. To better understand mechanisms governing these patterns, we developed an ecological simulation model that revealed how changes in selective environments cause shifts in the stochastic/deterministic balance. Finally, we propose an extended—and experimentally testable—conceptual model integrating ecological assembly processes with primary and secondary succession. This framework provides a priori hypotheses for future experiments, thereby facilitating a systematic approach to understand assembly and succession in microbial communities across ecosystems. PMID:25733885
Ordinal optimization and its application to complex deterministic problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Mike Shang-Yu

1998-10-01

We present in this thesis a new perspective to approach a general class of optimization problems characterized by large deterministic complexities. Many problems of real-world concerns today lack analyzable structures and almost always involve high level of difficulties and complexities in the evaluation process. Advances in computer technology allow us to build computer models to simulate the evaluation process through numerical means, but the burden of high complexities remains to tax the simulation with an exorbitant computing cost for each evaluation. Such a resource requirement makes local fine-tuning of a known design difficult under most circumstances, let alone global optimization. Kolmogorov equivalence of complexity and randomness in computation theory is introduced to resolve this difficulty by converting the complex deterministic model to a stochastic pseudo-model composed of a simple deterministic component and a white-noise like stochastic term. The resulting randomness is then dealt with by a noise-robust approach called Ordinal Optimization. Ordinal Optimization utilizes Goal Softening and Ordinal Comparison to achieve an efficient and quantifiable selection of designs in the initial search process. The approach is substantiated by a case study in the turbine blade manufacturing process. The problem involves the optimization of the manufacturing process of the integrally bladed rotor in the turbine engines of U.S. Air Force fighter jets. The intertwining interactions among the material, thermomechanical, and geometrical changes makes the current FEM approach prohibitively uneconomical in the optimization process. The generalized OO approach to complex deterministic problems is applied here with great success. Empirical results indicate a saving of nearly 95% in the computing cost.
Mine safety assessment using gray relational analysis and bow tie model

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Mine safety assessment is a precondition for ensuring orderly and safety in production. The main purpose of this study was to prevent mine accidents more effectively by proposing a composite risk analysis model. First, the weights of the assessment indicators were determined by the revised integrated weight method, in which the objective weights were determined by a variation coefficient method and the subjective weights determined by the Delphi method. A new formula was then adopted to calculate the integrated weights based on the subjective and objective weights. Second, after the assessment indicator weights were determined, gray relational analysis was used to evaluate the safety of mine enterprises. Mine enterprise safety was ranked according to the gray relational degree, and weak links of mine safety practices identified based on gray relational analysis. Third, to validate the revised integrated weight method adopted in the process of gray relational analysis, the fuzzy evaluation method was used to the safety assessment of mine enterprises. Fourth, for first time, bow tie model was adopted to identify the causes and consequences of weak links and allow corresponding safety measures to be taken to guarantee the mine’s safe production. A case study of mine safety assessment was presented to demonstrate the effectiveness and rationality of the proposed composite risk analysis model, which can be applied to other related industries for safety evaluation. PMID:29561875
Safety assessment and detection methods of genetically modified organisms.

PubMed

Xu, Rong; Zheng, Zhe; Jiao, Guanglian

2014-01-01

Genetically modified organisms (GMOs), are gaining importance in agriculture as well as the production of food and feed. Along with the development of GMOs, health and food safety concerns have been raised. These concerns for these new GMOs make it necessary to set up strict system on food safety assessment of GMOs. The food safety assessment of GMOs, current development status of safety and precise transgenic technologies and GMOs detection have been discussed in this review. The recent patents about GMOs and their detection methods are also reviewed. This review can provide elementary introduction on how to assess and detect GMOs.
A stochastic model for correlated protein motions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karain, Wael I.; Qaraeen, Nael I.; Ajarmah, Basem

2006-06-01

A one-dimensional Langevin-type stochastic difference equation is used to find the deterministic and Gaussian contributions of time series representing the projections of a Bovine Pancreatic Trypsin Inhibitor (BPTI) protein molecular dynamics simulation along different eigenvector directions determined using principal component analysis. The deterministic part shows a distinct nonlinear behavior only for eigenvectors contributing significantly to the collective protein motion.
Values in Science: Making Sense of Biology Doctoral Students' Critical Examination of a Deterministic Claim in a Media Article

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Raveendran, Aswathy; Chunawala, Sugra

2015-01-01

Several educators have emphasized that students need to understand science as a human endeavor that is not value free. In the exploratory study reported here, we investigated how doctoral students of biology understand the intersection of values and science in the context of genetic determinism. Deterministic research claims have been critiqued…
The dual reading of general conditionals: The influence of abstract versus concrete contexts.

PubMed

Wang, Moyun; Yao, Xinyun

2018-04-01

A current main issue on conditionals is whether the meaning of general conditionals (e.g., If a card is red, then it is round) is deterministic (exceptionless) or probabilistic (exception-tolerating). In order to resolve the issue, two experiments examined the influence of conditional contexts (with vs. without frequency information of truth table cases) on the reading of general conditionals. Experiment 1 examined the direct reading of general conditionals in the possibility judgment task. Experiment 2 examined the indirect reading of general conditionals in the truth judgment task. It was found that both the direct and indirect reading of general conditionals exhibited the duality: the predominant deterministic semantic reading of conditionals without frequency information, and the predominant probabilistic pragmatic reading of conditionals with frequency information. The context of general conditionals determined the predominant reading of general conditionals. There were obvious individual differences in reading general conditionals with frequency information. The meaning of general conditionals is relative, depending on conditional contexts. The reading of general conditionals is flexible and complex so that no simple deterministic and probabilistic accounts are able to explain it. The present findings are beyond the extant deterministic and probabilistic accounts of conditionals.
Deterministic generation of remote entanglement with active quantum feedback

DOE PAGES

Martin, Leigh; Motzoi, Felix; Li, Hanhan; ...

2015-12-10

We develop and study protocols for deterministic remote entanglement generation using quantum feedback, without relying on an entangling Hamiltonian. In order to formulate the most effective experimentally feasible protocol, we introduce the notion of average-sense locally optimal feedback protocols, which do not require real-time quantum state estimation, a difficult component of real-time quantum feedback control. We use this notion of optimality to construct two protocols that can deterministically create maximal entanglement: a semiclassical feedback protocol for low-efficiency measurements and a quantum feedback protocol for high-efficiency measurements. The latter reduces to direct feedback in the continuous-time limit, whose dynamics can bemore » modeled by a Wiseman-Milburn feedback master equation, which yields an analytic solution in the limit of unit measurement efficiency. Our formalism can smoothly interpolate between continuous-time and discrete-time descriptions of feedback dynamics and we exploit this feature to derive a superior hybrid protocol for arbitrary nonunit measurement efficiency that switches between quantum and semiclassical protocols. Lastly, we show using simulations incorporating experimental imperfections that deterministic entanglement of remote superconducting qubits may be achieved with current technology using the continuous-time feedback protocol alone.« less
Application of deterministic deconvolution of ground-penetrating radar data in a study of carbonate strata

USGS Publications Warehouse

Xia, J.; Franseen, E.K.; Miller, R.D.; Weis, T.V.

2004-01-01

We successfully applied deterministic deconvolution to real ground-penetrating radar (GPR) data by using the source wavelet that was generated in and transmitted through air as the operator. The GPR data were collected with 400-MHz antennas on a bench adjacent to a cleanly exposed quarry face. The quarry site is characterized by horizontally bedded carbonate strata with shale partings. In order to provide groundtruth for this deconvolution approach, 23 conductive rods were drilled into the quarry face at key locations. The steel rods provided critical information for: (1) correlation between reflections on GPR data and geologic features exposed in the quarry face, (2) GPR resolution limits, (3) accuracy of velocities calculated from common midpoint data and (4) identifying any multiples. Comparing the results of deconvolved data with non-deconvolved data demonstrates the effectiveness of deterministic deconvolution in low dielectric-loss media for increased accuracy of velocity models (improved at least 10-15% in our study after deterministic deconvolution), increased vertical and horizontal resolution of specific geologic features and more accurate representation of geologic features as confirmed from detailed study of the adjacent quarry wall. ?? 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Implementation speed of deterministic population passages compared to that of Rabi pulses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jingwei; Wei, L. F.

2015-02-01

Fast Rabi π -pulse technique has been widely applied to various coherent quantum manipulations, although it requires precise designs of the pulse areas. Relaxing the precise pulse designs, various rapid adiabatic passage (RAP) approaches have been alternatively utilized to implement various population passages deterministically. However, the usual RAP protocol could not be implemented desirably fast, as the relevant adiabatic condition should be robustly satisfied during the passage. Here, we propose a modified shortcut to adiabaticity (STA) technique to accelerate significantly the desired deterministic quantum state population passages. This transitionless technique is beyond the usual rotating wave approximation (RWA) performed in the recent STA protocols, and thus can be applied to deliver various fast quantum evolutions wherein the relevant counter-rotating effects cannot be neglected. The proposal is demonstrated specifically with the driven two- and three-level systems. Numerical results show that with the present STA technique beyond the RWA the usual Stark-chirped RAPs and stimulated Raman adiabatic passages could be significantly speeded up; the deterministic population passages could be implemented as fast as the widely used fast Rabi π pulses, but are insensitive to the applied pulse areas.
Shielding Calculations on Waste Packages - The Limits and Possibilities of different Calculation Methods by the example of homogeneous and inhomogeneous Waste Packages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, Mike; Smalian, Silva

2017-09-01

For nuclear waste packages the expected dose rates and nuclide inventory are beforehand calculated. Depending on the package of the nuclear waste deterministic programs like MicroShield® provide a range of results for each type of packaging. Stochastic programs like "Monte-Carlo N-Particle Transport Code System" (MCNP®) on the other hand provide reliable results for complex geometries. However this type of program requires a fully trained operator and calculations are time consuming. The problem here is to choose an appropriate program for a specific geometry. Therefore we compared the results of deterministic programs like MicroShield® and stochastic programs like MCNP®. These comparisons enable us to make a statement about the applicability of the various programs for chosen types of containers. As a conclusion we found that for thin-walled geometries deterministic programs like MicroShield® are well suited to calculate the dose rate. For cylindrical containers with inner shielding however, deterministic programs hit their limits. Furthermore we investigate the effect of an inhomogeneous material and activity distribution on the results. The calculations are still ongoing. Results will be presented in the final abstract.
Calculating complete and exact Pareto front for multiobjective optimization: a new deterministic approach for discrete problems.

PubMed

Hu, Xiao-Bing; Wang, Ming; Di Paolo, Ezequiel

2013-06-01

Searching the Pareto front for multiobjective optimization problems usually involves the use of a population-based search algorithm or of a deterministic method with a set of different single aggregate objective functions. The results are, in fact, only approximations of the real Pareto front. In this paper, we propose a new deterministic approach capable of fully determining the real Pareto front for those discrete problems for which it is possible to construct optimization algorithms to find the k best solutions to each of the single-objective problems. To this end, two theoretical conditions are given to guarantee the finding of the actual Pareto front rather than its approximation. Then, a general methodology for designing a deterministic search procedure is proposed. A case study is conducted, where by following the general methodology, a ripple-spreading algorithm is designed to calculate the complete exact Pareto front for multiobjective route optimization. When compared with traditional Pareto front search methods, the obvious advantage of the proposed approach is its unique capability of finding the complete Pareto front. This is illustrated by the simulation results in terms of both solution quality and computational efficiency.

Crosstalk in an FDM Laboratory Setup and the Athena X-IFU End-to-End Simulator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

den Hartog, R.; Kirsch, C.; de Vries, C.; Akamatsu, H.; Dauser, T.; Peille, P.; Cucchetti, E.; Jackson, B.; Bandler, S.; Smith, S.; Wilms, J.

2018-04-01

The impact of various crosstalk mechanisms on the performance of the Athena X-IFU instrument has been assessed with detailed end-to-end simulations. For the crosstalk in the electrical circuit, a detailed model has been developed. In this contribution, we test this model against measurements made with an FDM laboratory setup and discuss the assumption of deterministic crosstalk in the context of the weak link effect in the detectors. We conclude that crosstalk levels predicted by the model are conservative with respect to the observed levels.
Research on Intelligent Synthesis Environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noor, Ahmed K.; Lobeck, William E.

2002-01-01

Four research activities related to Intelligent Synthesis Environment (ISE) have been performed under this grant. The four activities are: 1) non-deterministic approaches that incorporate technologies such as intelligent software agents, visual simulations and other ISE technologies; 2) virtual labs that leverage modeling, simulation and information technologies to create an immersive, highly interactive virtual environment tailored to the needs of researchers and learners; 3) advanced learning modules that incorporate advanced instructional, user interface and intelligent agent technologies; and 4) assessment and continuous improvement of engineering team effectiveness in distributed collaborative environments.
A model for Huanglongbing spread between citrus plants including delay times and human intervention

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vilamiu, Raphael G. d'A.; Ternes, Sonia; Braga, Guilherme A.; Laranjeira, Francisco F.

2012-09-01

The objective of this work was to present a compartmental deterministic mathematical model for representing the dynamics of HLB disease in a citrus orchard, including delay in the disease's incubation phase in the plants, and a delay period on the nymphal stage of Diaphorina citri, the most important HLB insect vector in Brazil. Numerical simulations were performed to assess the possible impacts of human detection efficiency of symptomatic plants, as well as the influence of a long incubation period of HLB in the plant.
Research on Intelligent Synthesis Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noor, Ahmed K.; Loftin, R. Bowen

2002-12-01

Four research activities related to Intelligent Synthesis Environment (ISE) have been performed under this grant. The four activities are: 1) non-deterministic approaches that incorporate technologies such as intelligent software agents, visual simulations and other ISE technologies; 2) virtual labs that leverage modeling, simulation and information technologies to create an immersive, highly interactive virtual environment tailored to the needs of researchers and learners; 3) advanced learning modules that incorporate advanced instructional, user interface and intelligent agent technologies; and 4) assessment and continuous improvement of engineering team effectiveness in distributed collaborative environments.
HSE's safety assessment principles for criticality safety.

PubMed

Simister, D N; Finnerty, M D; Warburton, S J; Thomas, E A; Macphail, M R

2008-06-01

The Health and Safety Executive (HSE) published its revised Safety Assessment Principles for Nuclear Facilities (SAPs) in December 2006. The SAPs are primarily intended for use by HSE's inspectors when judging the adequacy of safety cases for nuclear facilities. The revised SAPs relate to all aspects of safety in nuclear facilities including the technical discipline of criticality safety. The purpose of this paper is to set out for the benefit of a wider audience some of the thinking behind the final published words and to provide an insight into the development of UK regulatory guidance. The paper notes that it is HSE's intention that the Safety Assessment Principles should be viewed as a reflection of good practice in the context of interpreting primary legislation such as the requirements under site licence conditions for arrangements for producing an adequate safety case and for producing a suitable and sufficient risk assessment under the Ionising Radiations Regulations 1999 (SI1999/3232 www.opsi.gov.uk/si/si1999/uksi_19993232_en.pdf).
Assessment of Electrical Safety in Afghanistan

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-07-24

effectiveness of command efforts to ensure the electrical safety of Department of Defense occupied and constructed facilities in Afghanistan. We...March 31, 2009, we announced the Assessment of Electrical Safety in Afghanistan. The objective of this assessment was to review the effectiveness of...used contractors to review and identify electrical deficiencies to include life, health , and safety issues at FOBs. According to TF POWER
Price-Dynamics of Shares and Bohmian Mechanics: Deterministic or Stochastic Model?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choustova, Olga

2007-02-01

We apply the mathematical formalism of Bohmian mechanics to describe dynamics of shares. The main distinguishing feature of the financial Bohmian model is the possibility to take into account market psychology by describing expectations of traders by the pilot wave. We also discuss some objections (coming from conventional financial mathematics of stochastic processes) against the deterministic Bohmian model. In particular, the objection that such a model contradicts to the efficient market hypothesis which is the cornerstone of the modern market ideology. Another objection is of pure mathematical nature: it is related to the quadratic variation of price trajectories. One possibility to reply to this critique is to consider the stochastic Bohm-Vigier model, instead of the deterministic one. We do this in the present note.
Observations, theoretical ideas and modeling of turbulent flows: Past, present and future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chapman, G. T.; Tobak, M.

1985-01-01

Turbulence was analyzed in a historical context featuring the interactions between observations, theoretical ideas, and modeling within three successive movements. These are identified as predominantly statistical, structural and deterministic. The statistical movement is criticized for its failure to deal with the structural elements observed in turbulent flows. The structural movement is criticized for its failure to embody observed structural elements within a formal theory. The deterministic movement is described as having the potential of overcoming these deficiencies by allowing structural elements to exhibit chaotic behavior that is nevertheless embodied within a theory. Four major ideas of this movement are described: bifurcation theory, strange attractors, fractals, and the renormalization group. A framework for the future study of turbulent flows is proposed, based on the premises of the deterministic movement.
U. K. pressing campaign to improve offshore safety

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Knott, D.

1994-02-14

The U.K. government is making progress in its campaign to improve the safety of personnel working offshore. The government's Health and Safety Executive (HSE) plans to assess and pass judgment on at lease one safety plan, called a safety case, from each U.K. North Sea operator as soon as possible. HSE has agreed with the industry on a list of 61 priority safety cases, known as exemplars. Feedback from exemplar assessment will help operators review safety management and assist in preparation or revision of future safety cases. It also will give HSE practice in assessing a range of case types.more » The requirement for a safety program is part of new U.K. offshore legislation designed to prevent another accident similar to the Piper Alpha platform fire and explosion of 1988. After the transition period it will be against the law to operate an oil and gas installation in British waters without an accepted safety case. Besides existing installations, safety cases are also required for new installations reaching design stage by May 31, 1993, the date safety case regulations went into force. The paper describes the Cullen report, companies' experiences with the new law, and the safety assessment progress so far.« less
C-Band Airport Surface Communications System Engineering-Initial High-Level Safety Risk Assessment and Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zelkin, Natalie; Henriksen, Stephen

2011-01-01

This document is being provided as part of ITT's NASA Glenn Research Center Aerospace Communication Systems Technical Support (ACSTS) contract: "New ATM Requirements--Future Communications, C-Band and L-Band Communications Standard Development." ITT has completed a safety hazard analysis providing a preliminary safety assessment for the proposed C-band (5091- to 5150-MHz) airport surface communication system. The assessment was performed following the guidelines outlined in the Federal Aviation Administration Safety Risk Management Guidance for System Acquisitions document. The safety analysis did not identify any hazards with an unacceptable risk, though a number of hazards with a medium risk were documented. This effort represents an initial high-level safety hazard analysis and notes the triggers for risk reassessment. A detailed safety hazards analysis is recommended as a follow-on activity to assess particular components of the C-band communication system after the profile is finalized and system rollout timing is determined. A security risk assessment has been performed by NASA as a parallel activity. While safety analysis is concerned with a prevention of accidental errors and failures, the security threat analysis focuses on deliberate attacks. Both processes identify the events that affect operation of the system; and from a safety perspective the security threats may present safety risks.
A study on technical efficiency of a DMU (review of literature)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Venkateswarlu, B.; Mahaboob, B.; Subbarami Reddy, C.; Sankar, J. Ravi

2017-11-01

In this research paper the concept of technical efficiency (due to Farell) [1] of a decision making unit (DMU) has been introduced and the measure of technical and cost efficiencies are derived. Timmer’s [2] deterministic approach to estimate the Cobb-Douglas production frontier has been proposed. The idea of extension of Timmer’s [2] method to any production frontier which is linear in parameters has been presented here. The estimation of parameters of Cobb-Douglas production frontier by linear programming approach has been discussed in this paper. Mark et al. [3] proposed a non-parametric method to assess efficiency. Nuti et al. [4] investigated the relationships among technical efficiency scores, weighted per capita cost and overall performance Gahe Zing Samuel Yank et al. [5] used Data envelopment analysis to assess technical assessment in banking sectors.
Safety assessment in schools: beyond risk: the role of child psychiatrists and other mental health professionals.

PubMed

Rappaport, Nancy; Pollack, William S; Flaherty, Lois T; Schwartz, Sarah E O; McMickens, Courtney

2015-04-01

This article presents an overview of a comprehensive school safety assessment approach for students whose behavior raises concern about their potential for targeted violence. Case vignettes highlight the features of 2 youngsters who exemplify those seen, the comprehensive nature of the assessment, and the kind of recommendations that enhance a student's safety, connection, well-being; engage families; and share responsibility of assessing safety with the school. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Integration of data-driven and physically-based methods to assess shallow landslides susceptibility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lajas, Sara; Oliveira, Sérgio C.; Zêzere, José Luis

2016-04-01

Approaches used to assess shallow landslides susceptibility at the basin scale are conceptually different depending on the use of statistic or deterministic methods. The data-driven methods are sustained in the assumption that the same causes are likely to produce the same effects and for that reason a present/past landslide inventory and a dataset of factors assumed as predisposing factors are crucial for the landslide susceptibility assessment. The physically-based methods are based on a system controlled by physical laws and soil mechanics, where the forces which tend to promote movement are compared with forces that tend to promote resistance to movement. In this case, the evaluation of susceptibility is supported by the calculation of the Factor of safety (FoS), and dependent of the availability of detailed data related with the slope geometry and hydrological and geotechnical properties of the soils and rocks. Within this framework, this work aims to test two hypothesis: (i) although conceptually distinct and based on contrasting procedures, statistic and deterministic methods generate similar shallow landslides susceptibility results regarding the predictive capacity and spatial agreement; and (ii) the integration of the shallow landslides susceptibility maps obtained with data-driven and physically-based methods, for the same study area, generate a more reliable susceptibility model for shallow landslides occurrence. To evaluate these two hypotheses, we select the Information Value data-driven method and the physically-based Infinite Slope model to evaluate shallow landslides in the study area of Monfalim and Louriceira basins (13.9 km2), which is located in the north of Lisbon region (Portugal). The landslide inventory is composed by 111 shallow landslides and was divide in two independent groups based on temporal criteria (age ≤ 1983 and age > 1983): (i) the modelling group (51 cases) was used to define the weights for each predisposing factor (lithology, land use, slope, aspect, curvature, topographic position index and the slope over area ratio) with the Information Value method and was used also to calibrate the strength parameters (cohesion and friction angle) of the different lithological units considered in the Infinity Slope model; and (ii) the validation group (60 cases) was used to independent validate and define the predictive capacity of the shallow landslides susceptibility maps produced with the Information Value method and the Infinite Slope method. The comparison of both landslide susceptibility maps was supported by: (i) the computation of the Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curves; (ii) the calculation of the Area Under the Curve (AUC); and (iii) the evaluation of the spatial agreement between the landslide susceptibility classes. Finally, the susceptibility maps produced with the Information Value and the Infinite Slope methods are integrated into a single landslide susceptibility map based on a set of integration rules define by cross-validation of the susceptibility classes of both maps and analysis of the corresponding contingency table. This work was supported by the FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology and is within the framework of the FORLAND Project. Sérgio Oliveira was funded by a postdoctoral grant (SFRH/BPD/85827/2012) from the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT).
New safety rules challenge U. K. operators, regulators

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hudson, J.

1994-08-15

Offshore safety regulations based on lessons learned from the Piper Alpha blast of 1988 have been in operation in the U.K. for a year. The Offshore Installations (Safety Case) Regulations 1992 make operators of fixed and mobile installations (the duty holders'') responsible for producing a formal safety assessment, or safety case, for each installation. After the end of November 1995 it will be an offense to operate an installation without a safety case which has been approved by the government's Health and Safety Executive (HSE). Producing safety cases for installations is a major task for duty holder, while assessing themmore » is a huge under taking for HSE's Offshore Safety Division (OSD). This paper reviews how HSE has established management arrangements to handle safety cases, considers progress in assessment, highlights some of the important lessons learned, and look to the future.« less
Safety assessment of Vitis vinifera (grape)-derived ingredients as used in cosmetics.

PubMed

Fiume, Monice M; Bergfeld, Wilma F; Belsito, Donald V; Hill, Ronald A; Klaassen, Curtis D; Liebler, Daniel C; Marks, James G; Shank, Ronald C; Slaga, Thomas J; Snyder, Paul W; Andersen, F Alan

2014-01-01

The Cosmetic Ingredient Review Expert Panel (Panel) assessed the safety of 24 Vitis vinifera (grape)-derived ingredients and found them safe in the present practices of use and concentration in cosmetics. These ingredients function in cosmetics mostly as skin-conditioning agents, but some function as antioxidants, flavoring agents, and/or colorants. The Panel reviewed the available animal and clinical data to determine the safety of these ingredients. Additionally, some constituents of grapes have been assessed previously for safety as cosmetic ingredients by the Panel, and others are compounds that have been discussed in previous Panel safety assessments. © The Author(s) 2014.
76 FR 74723 - New Car Assessment Program (NCAP); Safety Labeling

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-12-01

... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION National Highway Traffic Safety Administration 49 CFR Part 575 [Docket No. NHTSA 2010-0025] RIN 2127-AK51 New Car Assessment Program (NCAP); Safety Labeling AGENCY: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), Department of Transportation (DOT). ACTION...
High-Throughput Toxicity Testing: New Strategies for Assessing Chemical Safety

EPA Science Inventory

In recent years, the food industry has made progress in improving safety testing methods focused on microbial contaminants in order to promote food safety. However, food industry toxicologists must also assess the safety of food-relevant chemicals including pesticides, direct add...
75 FR 77675 - AREVA NP, Inc.; Confirmatory Order (Effective Immediately)

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-12-13

..., appropriate notification of regulatory authorities, safety culture and safety conscious work environment...., outside the global AREVA organization), safety culture assessment in accordance with an accepted nuclear....e., outside the global AREVA organization), safety culture assessment in accordance with an accepted...
Reproducibility in a multiprocessor system

DOEpatents

Bellofatto, Ralph A; Chen, Dong; Coteus, Paul W; Eisley, Noel A; Gara, Alan; Gooding, Thomas M; Haring, Rudolf A; Heidelberger, Philip; Kopcsay, Gerard V; Liebsch, Thomas A; Ohmacht, Martin; Reed, Don D; Senger, Robert M; Steinmacher-Burow, Burkhard; Sugawara, Yutaka

2013-11-26

Fixing a problem is usually greatly aided if the problem is reproducible. To ensure reproducibility of a multiprocessor system, the following aspects are proposed; a deterministic system start state, a single system clock, phase alignment of clocks in the system, system-wide synchronization events, reproducible execution of system components, deterministic chip interfaces, zero-impact communication with the system, precise stop of the system and a scan of the system state.
Stochastic Processes in Physics: Deterministic Origins and Control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demers, Jeffery

Stochastic processes are ubiquitous in the physical sciences and engineering. While often used to model imperfections and experimental uncertainties in the macroscopic world, stochastic processes can attain deeper physical significance when used to model the seemingly random and chaotic nature of the underlying microscopic world. Nowhere more prevalent is this notion than in the field of stochastic thermodynamics - a modern systematic framework used describe mesoscale systems in strongly fluctuating thermal environments which has revolutionized our understanding of, for example, molecular motors, DNA replication, far-from equilibrium systems, and the laws of macroscopic thermodynamics as they apply to the mesoscopic world. With progress, however, come further challenges and deeper questions, most notably in the thermodynamics of information processing and feedback control. Here it is becoming increasingly apparent that, due to divergences and subtleties of interpretation, the deterministic foundations of the stochastic processes themselves must be explored and understood. This thesis presents a survey of stochastic processes in physical systems, the deterministic origins of their emergence, and the subtleties associated with controlling them. First, we study time-dependent billiards in the quivering limit - a limit where a billiard system is indistinguishable from a stochastic system, and where the simplified stochastic system allows us to view issues associated with deterministic time-dependent billiards in a new light and address some long-standing problems. Then, we embark on an exploration of the deterministic microscopic Hamiltonian foundations of non-equilibrium thermodynamics, and we find that important results from mesoscopic stochastic thermodynamics have simple microscopic origins which would not be apparent without the benefit of both the micro and meso perspectives. Finally, we study the problem of stabilizing a stochastic Brownian particle with feedback control, and we find that in order to avoid paradoxes involving the first law of thermodynamics, we need a model for the fine details of the thermal driving noise. The underlying theme of this thesis is the argument that the deterministic microscopic perspective and stochastic mesoscopic perspective are both important and useful, and when used together, we can more deeply and satisfyingly understand the physics occurring over either scale.

Application of Non-Deterministic Methods to Assess Modeling Uncertainties for Reinforced Carbon-Carbon Debris Impacts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lyle, Karen H.; Fasanella, Edwin L.; Melis, Matthew; Carney, Kelly; Gabrys, Jonathan

2004-01-01

The Space Shuttle Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB) made several recommendations for improving the NASA Space Shuttle Program. An extensive experimental and analytical program has been developed to address two recommendations related to structural impact analysis. The objective of the present work is to demonstrate the application of probabilistic analysis to assess the effect of uncertainties on debris impacts on Space Shuttle Reinforced Carbon-Carbon (RCC) panels. The probabilistic analysis is used to identify the material modeling parameters controlling the uncertainty. A comparison of the finite element results with limited experimental data provided confidence that the simulations were adequately representing the global response of the material. Five input parameters were identified as significantly controlling the response.
CPT site characterization for seismic hazards in the New Madrid seismic zone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liao, T.; Mayne, P.W.; Tuttle, M.P.; Schweig, E.S.; Van Arsdale, R.B.

2002-01-01

A series of cone penetration tests (CPTs) were conducted in the vicinity of the New Madrid seismic zone in central USA for quantifying seismic hazards, obtaining geotechnical soil properties, and conducting studies at liquefaction sites related to the 1811-1812 and prehistoric New Madrid earthquakes. The seismic piezocone provides four independent measurements for delineating the stratigraphy, liquefaction potential, and site amplification parameters. At the same location, two independent assessments of soil liquefaction susceptibility can be made using both the normalized tip resistance (qc1N) and shear wave velocity (Vs1). In lieu of traditional deterministic approaches, the CPT data can be processed using probability curves to assess the level and likelihood of future liquefaction occurrence. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
There is more to risk and safety planning than dramatic risks: Mental health nurses' risk assessment and safety-management practice.

PubMed

Higgins, Agnes; Doyle, Louise; Downes, Carmel; Morrissey, Jean; Costello, Paul; Brennan, Michael; Nash, Michael

2016-04-01

Risk assessment and safety planning are considered a cornerstone of mental health practice, yet limited research exists into how mental health nurses conceptualize 'risk' and how they engage with risk assessment and safety planning. The aim of the present study was to explore mental health nurses' practices and confidence in risk assessment and safety planning. A self-completed survey was administered to 381 mental health nurses in Ireland. The findings indicate that nurses focus on risk to self and risk to others, with the risk of suicide, self-harm, substance abuse, and violence being most frequently assessed. Risk from others and 'iatrogenic' risk were less frequently considered. Overall, there was limited evidence of recovery-oriented practice in relation to risk. The results demonstrate a lack of meaningful engagement with respect to collaborative safety planning, the identification and inclusion of protective factors, and the inclusion of positive risk-taking opportunities. In addition, respondents report a lack of confidence working with positive risk taking and involving family/carers in the risk-assessment and safety-planning process. Gaps in knowledge about risk-assessment and safety-planning practice, which could be addressed through education, are identified, as are the implications of the findings for practice and research. © 2015 Australian College of Mental Health Nurses Inc.
Use of the Home Safety Self-Assessment Tool (HSSAT) within Community Health Education to Improve Home Safety.

PubMed

Horowitz, Beverly P; Almonte, Tiffany; Vasil, Andrea

2016-10-01

This exploratory research examined the benefits of a health education program utilizing the Home Safety Self-Assessment Tool (HSSAT) to increase perceived knowledge of home safety, recognition of unsafe activities, ability to safely perform activities, and develop home safety plans of 47 older adults. Focus groups in two senior centers explored social workers' perspectives on use of the HSSAT in community practice. Results for the health education program found significant differences between reported knowledge of home safety (p = .02), ability to recognize unsafe activities (p = .01), safely perform activities (p = .04), and develop a safety plan (p = .002). Social workers identified home safety as a major concern and the HSSAT a promising assessment tool. Research has implications for reducing environmental fall risks.
Safety of railroad passenger vehicle dynamics : final summary report

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2002-07-01

This report is a summary of all the work done by Foster-Miller on the passenger rail vehicle dynamic safety under the contract awarded by the FRA. The report presents key issues and findings in the safety assessments and a safety assessment methodolo...
Do rational numbers play a role in selection for stochasticity?

PubMed

Sinclair, Robert

2014-01-01

When a given tissue must, to be able to perform its various functions, consist of different cell types, each fairly evenly distributed and with specific probabilities, then there are at least two quite different developmental mechanisms which might achieve the desired result. Let us begin with the case of two cell types, and first imagine that the proportion of numbers of cells of these types should be 1:3. Clearly, a regular structure composed of repeating units of four cells, three of which are of the dominant type, will easily satisfy the requirements, and a deterministic mechanism may lend itself to the task. What if, however, the proportion should be 10:33? The same simple, deterministic approach would now require a structure of repeating units of 43 cells, and this certainly seems to require a far more complex and potentially prohibitive deterministic developmental program. Stochastic development, replacing regular units with random distributions of given densities, might not be evolutionarily competitive in comparison with the deterministic program when the proportions should be 1:3, but it has the property that, whatever developmental mechanism underlies it, its complexity does not need to depend very much upon target cell densities at all. We are immediately led to speculate that proportions which correspond to fractions with large denominators (such as the 33 of 10/33) may be more easily achieved by stochastic developmental programs than by deterministic ones, and this is the core of our thesis: that stochastic development may tend to occur more often in cases involving rational numbers with large denominators. To be imprecise: that simple rationality and determinism belong together, as do irrationality and randomness.
Comparative study on neutronics characteristics of a 1500 MWe metal fuel sodium-cooled fast reactor

DOE PAGES

Ohgama, Kazuya; Aliberti, Gerardo; Stauff, Nicolas E.; ...

2017-02-28

Under the cooperative effort of the Civil Nuclear Energy R&D Working Group within the framework of the U.S.-Japan bilateral, Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) and Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) have been performing benchmark study using Japan Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor (JSFR) design with metal fuel. In this benchmark study, core characteristic parameters at the beginning of cycle were evaluated by the best estimate deterministic and stochastic methodologies of ANL and JAEA. The results obtained by both institutions show a good agreement with less than 200 pcm of discrepancy on the neutron multiplication factor, and less than 3% of discrepancy on themore » sodium void reactivity, Doppler reactivity, and control rod worth. The results by the stochastic and deterministic approaches were compared in each party to investigate impacts of the deterministic approximation and to understand potential variations in the results due to different calculation methodologies employed. From the detailed analysis of methodologies, it was found that the good agreement in multiplication factor from the deterministic calculations comes from the cancellation of the differences on the methodology (0.4%) and nuclear data (0.6%). The different treatment in reflector cross section generation was estimated as the major cause of the discrepancy between the multiplication factors by the JAEA and ANL deterministic methodologies. Impacts of the nuclear data libraries were also investigated using a sensitivity analysis methodology. Furthermore, the differences on the inelastic scattering cross sections of U-238, ν values and fission cross sections of Pu-239 and µ-average of Na-23 are the major contributors to the difference on the multiplication factors.« less
A Comparison of Deterministic and Stochastic Modeling Approaches for Biochemical Reaction Systems: On Fixed Points, Means, and Modes.

PubMed

Hahl, Sayuri K; Kremling, Andreas

2016-01-01

In the mathematical modeling of biochemical reactions, a convenient standard approach is to use ordinary differential equations (ODEs) that follow the law of mass action. However, this deterministic ansatz is based on simplifications; in particular, it neglects noise, which is inherent to biological processes. In contrast, the stochasticity of reactions is captured in detail by the discrete chemical master equation (CME). Therefore, the CME is frequently applied to mesoscopic systems, where copy numbers of involved components are small and random fluctuations are thus significant. Here, we compare those two common modeling approaches, aiming at identifying parallels and discrepancies between deterministic variables and possible stochastic counterparts like the mean or modes of the state space probability distribution. To that end, a mathematically flexible reaction scheme of autoregulatory gene expression is translated into the corresponding ODE and CME formulations. We show that in the thermodynamic limit, deterministic stable fixed points usually correspond well to the modes in the stationary probability distribution. However, this connection might be disrupted in small systems. The discrepancies are characterized and systematically traced back to the magnitude of the stoichiometric coefficients and to the presence of nonlinear reactions. These factors are found to synergistically promote large and highly asymmetric fluctuations. As a consequence, bistable but unimodal, and monostable but bimodal systems can emerge. This clearly challenges the role of ODE modeling in the description of cellular signaling and regulation, where some of the involved components usually occur in low copy numbers. Nevertheless, systems whose bimodality originates from deterministic bistability are found to sustain a more robust separation of the two states compared to bimodal, but monostable systems. In regulatory circuits that require precise coordination, ODE modeling is thus still expected to provide relevant indications on the underlying dynamics.
Comparative study on neutronics characteristics of a 1500 MWe metal fuel sodium-cooled fast reactor

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ohgama, Kazuya; Aliberti, Gerardo; Stauff, Nicolas E.

Under the cooperative effort of the Civil Nuclear Energy R&D Working Group within the framework of the U.S.-Japan bilateral, Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) and Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) have been performing benchmark study using Japan Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor (JSFR) design with metal fuel. In this benchmark study, core characteristic parameters at the beginning of cycle were evaluated by the best estimate deterministic and stochastic methodologies of ANL and JAEA. The results obtained by both institutions show a good agreement with less than 200 pcm of discrepancy on the neutron multiplication factor, and less than 3% of discrepancy on themore » sodium void reactivity, Doppler reactivity, and control rod worth. The results by the stochastic and deterministic approaches were compared in each party to investigate impacts of the deterministic approximation and to understand potential variations in the results due to different calculation methodologies employed. From the detailed analysis of methodologies, it was found that the good agreement in multiplication factor from the deterministic calculations comes from the cancellation of the differences on the methodology (0.4%) and nuclear data (0.6%). The different treatment in reflector cross section generation was estimated as the major cause of the discrepancy between the multiplication factors by the JAEA and ANL deterministic methodologies. Impacts of the nuclear data libraries were also investigated using a sensitivity analysis methodology. Furthermore, the differences on the inelastic scattering cross sections of U-238, ν values and fission cross sections of Pu-239 and µ-average of Na-23 are the major contributors to the difference on the multiplication factors.« less
Relative Roles of Deterministic and Stochastic Processes in Driving the Vertical Distribution of Bacterial Communities in a Permafrost Core from the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China.

PubMed

Hu, Weigang; Zhang, Qi; Tian, Tian; Li, Dingyao; Cheng, Gang; Mu, Jing; Wu, Qingbai; Niu, Fujun; Stegen, James C; An, Lizhe; Feng, Huyuan

2015-01-01

Understanding the processes that influence the structure of biotic communities is one of the major ecological topics, and both stochastic and deterministic processes are expected to be at work simultaneously in most communities. Here, we investigated the vertical distribution patterns of bacterial communities in a 10-m-long soil core taken within permafrost of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. To get a better understanding of the forces that govern these patterns, we examined the diversity and structure of bacterial communities, and the change in community composition along the vertical distance (spatial turnover) from both taxonomic and phylogenetic perspectives. Measures of taxonomic and phylogenetic beta diversity revealed that bacterial community composition changed continuously along the soil core, and showed a vertical distance-decay relationship. Multiple stepwise regression analysis suggested that bacterial alpha diversity and phylogenetic structure were strongly correlated with soil conductivity and pH but weakly correlated with depth. There was evidence that deterministic and stochastic processes collectively drived bacterial vertically-structured pattern. Bacterial communities in five soil horizons (two originated from the active layer and three from permafrost) of the permafrost core were phylogenetically random, indicator of stochastic processes. However, we found a stronger effect of deterministic processes related to soil pH, conductivity, and organic carbon content that were structuring the bacterial communities. We therefore conclude that the vertical distribution of bacterial communities was governed primarily by deterministic ecological selection, although stochastic processes were also at work. Furthermore, the strong impact of environmental conditions (for example, soil physicochemical parameters and seasonal freeze-thaw cycles) on these communities underlines the sensitivity of permafrost microorganisms to climate change and potentially subsequent permafrost thaw.
Relative Roles of Deterministic and Stochastic Processes in Driving the Vertical Distribution of Bacterial Communities in a Permafrost Core from the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China

PubMed Central

Tian, Tian; Li, Dingyao; Cheng, Gang; Mu, Jing; Wu, Qingbai; Niu, Fujun; Stegen, James C.; An, Lizhe; Feng, Huyuan

2015-01-01

Understanding the processes that influence the structure of biotic communities is one of the major ecological topics, and both stochastic and deterministic processes are expected to be at work simultaneously in most communities. Here, we investigated the vertical distribution patterns of bacterial communities in a 10-m-long soil core taken within permafrost of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. To get a better understanding of the forces that govern these patterns, we examined the diversity and structure of bacterial communities, and the change in community composition along the vertical distance (spatial turnover) from both taxonomic and phylogenetic perspectives. Measures of taxonomic and phylogenetic beta diversity revealed that bacterial community composition changed continuously along the soil core, and showed a vertical distance-decay relationship. Multiple stepwise regression analysis suggested that bacterial alpha diversity and phylogenetic structure were strongly correlated with soil conductivity and pH but weakly correlated with depth. There was evidence that deterministic and stochastic processes collectively drived bacterial vertically-structured pattern. Bacterial communities in five soil horizons (two originated from the active layer and three from permafrost) of the permafrost core were phylogenetically random, indicator of stochastic processes. However, we found a stronger effect of deterministic processes related to soil pH, conductivity, and organic carbon content that were structuring the bacterial communities. We therefore conclude that the vertical distribution of bacterial communities was governed primarily by deterministic ecological selection, although stochastic processes were also at work. Furthermore, the strong impact of environmental conditions (for example, soil physicochemical parameters and seasonal freeze-thaw cycles) on these communities underlines the sensitivity of permafrost microorganisms to climate change and potentially subsequent permafrost thaw. PMID:26699734
Preliminary Marine Safety Risk Assessment, Brandon Road Lock and Dam Invasive Species Control Measures

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-12-01

i Classification | CG-926 RDC | author | audience | month year Preliminary Marine Safety Risk Assessment, Brandon Road Lock & Dam...No. 4. Title and Subtitle Preliminary Marine Safety Risk Assessment, Brandon Road Lock & Dam Invasive Species Control Measures 5. Report Date...safety due to proposed invasive species control measures located in the vicinity of the Brandon Road Lock and Dam (BRLD) Navigation Project on the
A TIERED APPROACH TO LIFE STAGES TESTING FOR AGRICULTURAL CHEMICAL SAFETY ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

A proposal has been developed by the Agricultural Chemical Safety Assessment (ACSA) Technical Committee of the ILSI Health and Environmental Sciences Institute (HESI) for an improved approach to assessing the safety of crop protection chemicals. The goal is to ensure that studie...
Does Employee Safety Matter for Patients Too? Employee Safety Climate and Patient Safety Culture in Health Care.

PubMed

Mohr, David C; Eaton, Jennifer Lipkowitz; McPhaul, Kathleen M; Hodgson, Michael J

2015-04-22

We examined relationships between employee safety climate and patient safety culture. Because employee safety may be a precondition for the development of patient safety, we hypothesized that employee safety culture would be strongly and positively related to patient safety culture. An employee safety climate survey was administered in 2010 and assessed employees' views and experiences of safety for employees. The patient safety survey administered in 2011 assessed the safety culture for patients. We performed Pearson correlations and multiple regression analysis to examine the relationships between a composite measure of employee safety with subdimensions of patient safety culture. The regression models controlled for size, geographic characteristics, and teaching affiliation. Analyses were conducted at the group level using data from 132 medical centers. Higher employee safety climate composite scores were positively associated with all 9 patient safety culture measures examined. Standardized multivariate regression coefficients ranged from 0.44 to 0.64. Medical facilities where staff have more positive perceptions of health care workplace safety climate tended to have more positive assessments of patient safety culture. This suggests that patient safety culture and employee safety climate could be mutually reinforcing, such that investments and improvements in one domain positively impacts the other. Further research is needed to better understand the nexus between health care employee and patient safety to generalize and act upon findings.
The importance of diverse data types to calibrate a watershed model of the Trout Lake Basin, Northern Wisconsin, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunt, R.J.; Feinstein, D.T.; Pint, C.D.; Anderson, M.P.

2006-01-01

As part of the USGS Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets project and the NSF Long-Term Ecological Research work, a parameter estimation code was used to calibrate a deterministic groundwater flow model of the Trout Lake Basin in northern Wisconsin. Observations included traditional calibration targets (head, lake stage, and baseflow observations) as well as unconventional targets such as groundwater flows to and from lakes, depth of a lake water plume, and time of travel. The unconventional data types were important for parameter estimation convergence and allowed the development of a more detailed parameterization capable of resolving model objectives with well-constrained parameter values. Independent estimates of groundwater inflow to lakes were most important for constraining lakebed leakance and the depth of the lake water plume was important for determining hydraulic conductivity and conceptual aquifer layering. The most important target overall, however, was a conventional regional baseflow target that led to correct distribution of flow between sub-basins and the regional system during model calibration. The use of an automated parameter estimation code: (1) facilitated the calibration process by providing a quantitative assessment of the model's ability to match disparate observed data types; and (2) allowed assessment of the influence of observed targets on the calibration process. The model calibration required the use of a 'universal' parameter estimation code in order to include all types of observations in the objective function. The methods described in this paper help address issues of watershed complexity and non-uniqueness common to deterministic watershed models. ?? 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Bladder Cancer Treatment Response Assessment in CT using Radiomics with Deep-Learning.

PubMed

Cha, Kenny H; Hadjiiski, Lubomir; Chan, Heang-Ping; Weizer, Alon Z; Alva, Ajjai; Cohan, Richard H; Caoili, Elaine M; Paramagul, Chintana; Samala, Ravi K

2017-08-18

Cross-sectional X-ray imaging has become the standard for staging most solid organ malignancies. However, for some malignancies such as urinary bladder cancer, the ability to accurately assess local extent of the disease and understand response to systemic chemotherapy is limited with current imaging approaches. In this study, we explored the feasibility that radiomics-based predictive models using pre- and post-treatment computed tomography (CT) images might be able to distinguish between bladder cancers with and without complete chemotherapy responses. We assessed three unique radiomics-based predictive models, each of which employed different fundamental design principles ranging from a pattern recognition method via deep-learning convolution neural network (DL-CNN), to a more deterministic radiomics feature-based approach and then a bridging method between the two, utilizing a system which extracts radiomics features from the image patterns. Our study indicates that the computerized assessment using radiomics information from the pre- and post-treatment CT of bladder cancer patients has the potential to assist in assessment of treatment response.
Enterprise resource planning for hospitals.

PubMed

van Merode, Godefridus G; Groothuis, Siebren; Hasman, Arie

2004-06-30

Integrated hospitals need a central planning and control system to plan patients' processes and the required capacity. Given the changes in healthcare one can ask the question what type of information systems can best support these healthcare delivery organizations. We focus in this review on the potential of enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems for healthcare delivery organizations. First ERP systems are explained. An overview is then presented of the characteristics of the planning process in hospital environments. Problems with ERP that are due to the special characteristics of healthcare are presented. The situations in which ERP can or cannot be used are discussed. It is suggested to divide hospitals in a part that is concerned only with deterministic processes and a part that is concerned with non-deterministic processes. ERP can be very useful for planning and controlling the deterministic processes.
Large conditional single-photon cross-phase modulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beck, Kristin; Hosseini, Mahdi; Duan, Yiheng; Vuletic, Vladan

2016-05-01

Deterministic optical quantum logic requires a nonlinear quantum process that alters the phase of a quantum optical state by π through interaction with only one photon. Here, we demonstrate a large conditional cross-phase modulation between a signal field, stored inside an atomic quantum memory, and a control photon that traverses a high-finesse optical cavity containing the atomic memory. This approach avoids fundamental limitations associated with multimode effects for traveling optical photons. We measure a conditional cross-phase shift of up to π / 3 between the retrieved signal and control photons, and confirm deterministic entanglement between the signal and control modes by extracting a positive concurrence. With a moderate improvement in cavity finesse, our system can reach a coherent phase shift of p at low loss, enabling deterministic and universal photonic quantum logic. Preprint: arXiv:1512.02166 [quant-ph
Full 3D visualization tool-kit for Monte Carlo and deterministic transport codes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Frambati, S.; Frignani, M.

2012-07-01

We propose a package of tools capable of translating the geometric inputs and outputs of many Monte Carlo and deterministic radiation transport codes into open source file formats. These tools are aimed at bridging the gap between trusted, widely-used radiation analysis codes and very powerful, more recent and commonly used visualization software, thus supporting the design process and helping with shielding optimization. Three main lines of development were followed: mesh-based analysis of Monte Carlo codes, mesh-based analysis of deterministic codes and Monte Carlo surface meshing. The developed kit is considered a powerful and cost-effective tool in the computer-aided design formore » radiation transport code users of the nuclear world, and in particular in the fields of core design and radiation analysis. (authors)« less
From Weakly Chaotic Dynamics to Deterministic Subdiffusion via Copula Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nazé, Pierre

2018-03-01

Copula modeling consists in finding a probabilistic distribution, called copula, whereby its coupling with the marginal distributions of a set of random variables produces their joint distribution. The present work aims to use this technique to connect the statistical distributions of weakly chaotic dynamics and deterministic subdiffusion. More precisely, we decompose the jumps distribution of Geisel-Thomae map into a bivariate one and determine the marginal and copula distributions respectively by infinite ergodic theory and statistical inference techniques. We verify therefore that the characteristic tail distribution of subdiffusion is an extreme value copula coupling Mittag-Leffler distributions. We also present a method to calculate the exact copula and joint distributions in the case where weakly chaotic dynamics and deterministic subdiffusion statistical distributions are already known. Numerical simulations and consistency with the dynamical aspects of the map support our results.

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