High-temperature fatigue in metals - A brief review of life prediction methods developed at the Lewis Research Center of NASA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halford, G. R.

1983-01-01

The presentation focuses primarily on the progress we at NASA Lewis Research Center have made. The understanding of the phenomenological processes of high temperature fatigue of metals for the purpose of calculating lives of turbine engine hot section components is discussed. Improved understanding resulted in the development of accurate and physically correct life prediction methods such as Strain-Range partitioning for calculating creep fatigue interactions and the Double Linear Damage Rule for predicting potentially severe interactions between high and low cycle fatigue. Examples of other life prediction methods are also discussed. Previously announced in STAR as A83-12159

Integrating GLL-Weibull Distribution Within a Bayesian Framework for Life Prediction of Shape Memory Alloy Spring Undergoing Thermo-mechanical Fatigue

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kundu, Pradeep; Nath, Tameshwer; Palani, I. A.; Lad, Bhupesh K.

2018-06-01

The present paper tackles an important but unmapped problem of the reliability estimations of smart materials. First, an experimental setup is developed for accelerated life testing of the shape memory alloy (SMA) springs. Generalized log-linear Weibull (GLL-Weibull) distribution-based novel approach is then developed for SMA spring life estimation. Applied stimulus (voltage), elongation and cycles of operation are used as inputs for the life prediction model. The values of the parameter coefficients of the model provide better interpretability compared to artificial intelligence based life prediction approaches. In addition, the model also considers the effect of operating conditions, making it generic for a range of the operating conditions. Moreover, a Bayesian framework is used to continuously update the prediction with the actual degradation value of the springs, thereby reducing the uncertainty in the data and improving the prediction accuracy. In addition, the deterioration of material with number of cycles is also investigated using thermogravimetric analysis and scanning electron microscopy.

Thermal barrier coating life prediction model development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hillery, R. V.; Pilsner, B. H.; Mcknight, R. L.; Cook, T. S.; Hartle, M. S.

1988-01-01

This report describes work performed to determine the predominat modes of degradation of a plasma sprayed thermal barrier coating system and to develop and verify life prediction models accounting for these degradation modes. The primary TBC system consisted of a low pressure plasma sprayed NiCrAlY bond coat, an air plasma sprayed ZrO2-Y2O3 top coat, and a Rene' 80 substrate. The work was divided into 3 technical tasks. The primary failure mode to be addressed was loss of the zirconia layer through spalling. Experiments showed that oxidation of the bond coat is a significant contributor to coating failure. It was evident from the test results that the species of oxide scale initially formed on the bond coat plays a role in coating degradation and failure. It was also shown that elevated temperature creep of the bond coat plays a role in coating failure. An empirical model was developed for predicting the test life of specimens with selected coating, specimen, and test condition variations. In the second task, a coating life prediction model was developed based on the data from Task 1 experiments, results from thermomechanical experiments performed as part of Task 2, and finite element analyses of the TBC system during thermal cycles. The third and final task attempted to verify the validity of the model developed in Task 2. This was done by using the model to predict the test lives of several coating variations and specimen geometries, then comparing these predicted lives to experimentally determined test lives. It was found that the model correctly predicts trends, but that additional refinement is needed to accurately predict coating life.

Proceedings of the Annual Mechanics of Composites Review (8th) Held at Wright-Patterson AFB, Ohio on 5-7 October 1982.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-04-01

Spectrum Fatigue Behavior of Postbuckled Shear Panels; PO01 246 Development of Analysis for Predicting Compression Fatigt Life and Residual Strength in...Lazyup and Frequency Effects on Fatigue Life of Composites, POOl 256 Effect of Stress Ratio on Fatigue Life of Composites,’ POOl 257 High-Load Transfer...L. Agerwall, Northrop Corporation 0950-1020 BREAK 1020-1100 DEVELOPMENT OF ANALYSIS FOR PREDICTING COMPRESSION 34 FATIGUE LIFE AND RESIDUAL STRENGTH

A creep cavity growth model for creep-fatigue life prediction of a unidirectional W/Cu composite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Young-Suk; Verrilli, Michael J.; Halford, Gary R.

1992-05-01

A microstructural model was developed to predict creep-fatigue life in a (0)(sub 4), 9 volume percent tungsten fiber-reinforced copper matrix composite at the temperature of 833 K. The mechanism of failure of the composite is assumed to be governed by the growth of quasi-equilibrium cavities in the copper matrix of the composite, based on the microscopically observed failure mechanisms. The methodology uses a cavity growth model developed for prediction of creep fracture. Instantaneous values of strain rate and stress in the copper matrix during fatigue cycles were calculated and incorporated in the model to predict cyclic life. The stress in the copper matrix was determined by use of a simple two-bar model for the fiber and matrix during cyclic loading. The model successfully predicted the composite creep-fatigue life under tension-tension cyclic loading through the use of this instantaneous matrix stress level. Inclusion of additional mechanisms such as cavity nucleation, grain boundary sliding, and the effect of fibers on matrix-stress level would result in more generalized predictions of creep-fatigue life.

A creep cavity growth model for creep-fatigue life prediction of a unidirectional W/Cu composite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Young-Suk; Verrilli, Michael J.; Halford, Gary R.

1992-01-01

A microstructural model was developed to predict creep-fatigue life in a (0)(sub 4), 9 volume percent tungsten fiber-reinforced copper matrix composite at the temperature of 833 K. The mechanism of failure of the composite is assumed to be governed by the growth of quasi-equilibrium cavities in the copper matrix of the composite, based on the microscopically observed failure mechanisms. The methodology uses a cavity growth model developed for prediction of creep fracture. Instantaneous values of strain rate and stress in the copper matrix during fatigue cycles were calculated and incorporated in the model to predict cyclic life. The stress in the copper matrix was determined by use of a simple two-bar model for the fiber and matrix during cyclic loading. The model successfully predicted the composite creep-fatigue life under tension-tension cyclic loading through the use of this instantaneous matrix stress level. Inclusion of additional mechanisms such as cavity nucleation, grain boundary sliding, and the effect of fibers on matrix-stress level would result in more generalized predictions of creep-fatigue life.

Thermal barrier coating life prediction model development, phase 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meier, Susan Manning; Sheffler, Keith D.; Nissley, David M.

1991-01-01

The objective of this program was to generate a life prediction model for electron-beam-physical vapor deposited (EB-PVD) zirconia thermal barrier coating (TBC) on gas turbine engine components. Specific activities involved in development of the EB-PVD life prediction model included measurement of EB-PVD ceramic physical and mechanical properties and adherence strength, measurement of the thermally grown oxide (TGO) growth kinetics, generation of quantitative cyclic thermal spallation life data, and development of a spallation life prediction model. Life data useful for model development was obtained by exposing instrumented, EB-PVD ceramic coated cylindrical specimens in a jet fueled burner rig. Monotonic compression and tensile mechanical tests and physical property tests were conducted to obtain the EB-PVD ceramic behavior required for burner rig specimen analysis. As part of that effort, a nonlinear constitutive model was developed for the EB-PVD ceramic. Spallation failure of the EB-PVD TBC system consistently occurred at the TGO-metal interface. Calculated out-of-plane stresses were a small fraction of that required to statically fail the TGO. Thus, EB-PVD spallation was attributed to the interfacial cracking caused by in-plane TGO strains. Since TGO mechanical properties were not measured in this program, calculation of the burner rig specimen TGO in-plane strains was performed by using alumina properties. A life model based on maximum in-plane TGO tensile mechanical strain and TGO thickness correlated the burner rig specimen EB-PVD ceramic spallation lives within a factor of about plus or minus 2X.

Probabilistic Analysis of Aircraft Gas Turbine Disk Life and Reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Melis, Matthew E.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.; August, Richard

1999-01-01

Two series of low cycle fatigue (LCF) test data for two groups of different aircraft gas turbine engine compressor disk geometries were reanalyzed and compared using Weibull statistics. Both groups of disks were manufactured from titanium (Ti-6Al-4V) alloy. A NASA Glenn Research Center developed probabilistic computer code Probable Cause was used to predict disk life and reliability. A material-life factor A was determined for titanium (Ti-6Al-4V) alloy based upon fatigue disk data and successfully applied to predict the life of the disks as a function of speed. A comparison was made with the currently used life prediction method based upon crack growth rate. Applying an endurance limit to the computer code did not significantly affect the predicted lives under engine operating conditions. Failure location prediction correlates with those experimentally observed in the LCF tests. A reasonable correlation was obtained between the predicted disk lives using the Probable Cause code and a modified crack growth method for life prediction. Both methods slightly overpredict life for one disk group and significantly under predict it for the other.

One- and two-stage Arrhenius models for pharmaceutical shelf life prediction.

PubMed

Fan, Zhewen; Zhang, Lanju

2015-01-01

One of the most challenging aspects of the pharmaceutical development is the demonstration and estimation of chemical stability. It is imperative that pharmaceutical products be stable for two or more years. Long-term stability studies are required to support such shelf life claim at registration. However, during drug development to facilitate formulation and dosage form selection, an accelerated stability study with stressed storage condition is preferred to quickly obtain a good prediction of shelf life under ambient storage conditions. Such a prediction typically uses Arrhenius equation that describes relationship between degradation rate and temperature (and humidity). Existing methods usually rely on the assumption of normality of the errors. In addition, shelf life projection is usually based on confidence band of a regression line. However, the coverage probability of a method is often overlooked or under-reported. In this paper, we introduce two nonparametric bootstrap procedures for shelf life estimation based on accelerated stability testing, and compare them with a one-stage nonlinear Arrhenius prediction model. Our simulation results demonstrate that one-stage nonlinear Arrhenius method has significant lower coverage than nominal levels. Our bootstrap method gave better coverage and led to a shelf life prediction closer to that based on long-term stability data.

A Step Made Toward Designing Microelectromechanical System (MEMS) Structures With High Reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.

2003-01-01

The mechanical design of microelectromechanical systems-particularly for micropower generation applications-requires the ability to predict the strength capacity of load-carrying components over the service life of the device. These microdevices, which typically are made of brittle materials such as polysilicon, show wide scatter (stochastic behavior) in strength as well as a different average strength for different sized structures (size effect). These behaviors necessitate either costly and time-consuming trial-and-error designs or, more efficiently, the development of a probabilistic design methodology for MEMS. Over the years, the NASA Glenn Research Center s Life Prediction Branch has developed the CARES/Life probabilistic design methodology to predict the reliability of advanced ceramic components. In this study, done in collaboration with Johns Hopkins University, the ability of the CARES/Life code to predict the reliability of polysilicon microsized structures with stress concentrations is successfully demonstrated.

Life Prediction/Reliability Data of Glass-Ceramic Material Determined for Radome Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choi, Sung R.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

2002-01-01

Brittle materials, ceramics, are candidate materials for a variety of structural applications for a wide range of temperatures. However, the process of slow crack growth, occurring in any loading configuration, limits the service life of structural components. Therefore, it is important to accurately determine the slow crack growth parameters required for component life prediction using an appropriate test methodology. This test methodology also should be useful in determining the influence of component processing and composition variables on the slow crack growth behavior of newly developed or existing materials, thereby allowing the component processing and composition to be tailored and optimized to specific needs. Through the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM), the authors recently developed two test methods to determine the life prediction parameters of ceramics. The two test standards, ASTM 1368 for room temperature and ASTM C 1465 for elevated temperatures, were published in the 2001 Annual Book of ASTM Standards, Vol. 15.01. Briefly, the test method employs constant stress-rate (or dynamic fatigue) testing to determine flexural strengths as a function of the applied stress rate. The merit of this test method lies in its simplicity: strengths are measured in a routine manner in flexure at four or more applied stress rates with an appropriate number of test specimens at each applied stress rate. The slow crack growth parameters necessary for life prediction are then determined from a simple relationship between the strength and the applied stress rate. Extensive life prediction testing was conducted at the NASA Glenn Research Center using the developed ASTM C 1368 test method to determine the life prediction parameters of a glass-ceramic material that the Navy will use for radome applications.

Ceramic Matrix Composites (CMC) Life Prediction Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Levine, Stanley R.; Verrilli, Michael J.; Thomas, David J.; Halbig, Michael C.; Calomino, Anthony M.; Ellis, John R.; Opila, Elizabeth J.

1990-01-01

Advanced launch systems will very likely incorporate fiber reinforced ceramic matrix composites (CMC) in critical propulsion and airframe components. The use of CMC will save weight, increase operating margin, safety and performance, and improve reuse capability. For reusable and single mission use, accurate life prediction is critical to success. The tools to accomplish this are immature and not oriented toward the behavior of carbon fiber reinforced silicon carbide (C/SiC), the primary system of interest for many applications. This paper describes an approach and progress made to satisfy the need to develop an integrated life prediction system that addresses mechanical durability and environmental degradation.

Real-Time Aircraft Engine-Life Monitoring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klein, Richard

2014-01-01

This project developed an inservice life-monitoring system capable of predicting the remaining component and system life of aircraft engines. The embedded system provides real-time, inflight monitoring of the engine's thrust, exhaust gas temperature, efficiency, and the speed and time of operation. Based upon this data, the life-estimation algorithm calculates the remaining life of the engine components and uses this data to predict the remaining life of the engine. The calculations are based on the statistical life distribution of the engine components and their relationship to load, speed, temperature, and time.

Development of Reliability Based Life Prediction Methods for Thermal and Environmental Barrier Coatings in Ceramic Matrix Composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shah, Ashwin

2001-01-01

Literature survey related to the EBC/TBC (environmental barrier coating/thermal barrier coating) fife models, failure mechanisms in EBC/TBC and the initial work plan for the proposed EBC/TBC life prediction methods development was developed as well as the finite element model for the thermal/stress analysis of the GRC-developed EBC system was prepared. Technical report for these activities is given in the subsequent sections.

Life Prediction Issues in Thermal/Environmental Barrier Coatings in Ceramic Matrix Composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shah, Ashwin R.; Brewer, David N.; Murthy, Pappu L. N.

2001-01-01

Issues and design requirements for the environmental barrier coating (EBC)/thermal barrier coating (TBC) life that are general and those specific to the NASA Ultra-Efficient Engine Technology (UEET) development program have been described. The current state and trend of the research, methods in vogue related to the failure analysis, and long-term behavior and life prediction of EBCITBC systems are reported. Also, the perceived failure mechanisms, variables, and related uncertainties governing the EBCITBC system life are summarized. A combined heat transfer and structural analysis approach based on the oxidation kinetics using the Arrhenius theory is proposed to develop a life prediction model for the EBC/TBC systems. Stochastic process-based reliability approach that includes the physical variables such as gas pressure, temperature, velocity, moisture content, crack density, oxygen content, etc., is suggested. Benefits of the reliability-based approach are also discussed in the report.

Prediction of composite fatigue life under variable amplitude loading using artificial neural network trained by genetic algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rohman, Muhamad Nur; Hidayat, Mas Irfan P.; Purniawan, Agung

2018-04-01

Neural networks (NN) have been widely used in application of fatigue life prediction. In the use of fatigue life prediction for polymeric-base composite, development of NN model is necessary with respect to the limited fatigue data and applicable to be used to predict the fatigue life under varying stress amplitudes in the different stress ratios. In the present paper, Multilayer-Perceptrons (MLP) model of neural network is developed, and Genetic Algorithm was employed to optimize the respective weights of NN for prediction of polymeric-base composite materials under variable amplitude loading. From the simulation result obtained with two different composite systems, named E-glass fabrics/epoxy (layups [(±45)/(0)2]S), and E-glass/polyester (layups [90/0/±45/0]S), NN model were trained with fatigue data from two different stress ratios, which represent limited fatigue data, can be used to predict another four and seven stress ratios respectively, with high accuracy of fatigue life prediction. The accuracy of NN prediction were quantified with the small value of mean square error (MSE). When using 33% from the total fatigue data for training, the NN model able to produce high accuracy for all stress ratios. When using less fatigue data during training (22% from the total fatigue data), the NN model still able to produce high coefficient of determination between the prediction result compared with obtained by experiment.

Life prediction technologies for aeronautical propulsion systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcgaw, Michael A.

1990-01-01

Fatigue and fracture problems continue to occur in aeronautical gas turbine engines. Components whose useful life is limited by these failure modes include turbine hot-section blades, vanes, and disks. Safety considerations dictate that catastrophic failures be avoided, while economic considerations dictate that catastrophic failures be avoided, while economic considerations dictate that noncatastrophic failures occur as infrequently as possible. Therefore, the decision in design is making the tradeoff between engine performance and durability. LeRC has contributed to the aeropropulsion industry in the area of life prediction technology for over 30 years, developing creep and fatigue life prediction methodologies for hot-section materials. At the present time, emphasis is being placed on the development of methods capable of handling both thermal and mechanical fatigue under severe environments. Recent accomplishments include the development of more accurate creep-fatigue life prediction methods such as the total strain version of LeRC's strain-range partitioning (SRP) and the HOST-developed cyclic damage accumulation (CDA) model. Other examples include the development of a more accurate cumulative fatigue damage rule - the double damage curve approach (DDCA), which provides greatly improved accuracy in comparison with usual cumulative fatigue design rules. Other accomplishments in the area of high-temperature fatigue crack growth may also be mentioned. Finally, we are looking to the future and are beginning to do research on the advanced methods which will be required for development of advanced materials and propulsion systems over the next 10-20 years.

A life prediction model for laminated composite structural components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allen, David H.

1990-01-01

A life prediction methodology for laminated continuous fiber composites subjected to fatigue loading conditions was developed. A summary is presented of research completed. A phenomenological damage evolution law was formulated for matrix cracking which is independent of stacking sequence. Mechanistic and physical support was developed for the phenomenological evolution law proposed above. The damage evolution law proposed above was implemented to a finite element computer program. And preliminary predictions were obtained for a structural component undergoing fatigue loading induced damage.

FLAPS (Fatigue Life Analysis Programs): Computer Programs to Predict Cyclic Life Using the Total Strain Version of Strainrange Partitioning and Other Life Prediction Methods. Users' Manual and Example Problems, Version 1.0

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arya, Vinod K.; Halford, Gary R. (Technical Monitor)

2003-01-01

This manual presents computer programs FLAPS for characterizing and predicting fatigue and creep-fatigue resistance of metallic materials in the high-temperature, long-life regime for isothermal and nonisothermal fatigue. The programs use the Total Strain version of Strainrange Partitioning (TS-SRP), and several other life prediction methods described in this manual. The user should be thoroughly familiar with the TS-SRP and these life prediction methods before attempting to use any of these programs. Improper understanding can lead to incorrect use of the method and erroneous life predictions. An extensive database has also been developed in a parallel effort. The database is probably the largest source of high-temperature, creep-fatigue test data available in the public domain and can be used with other life-prediction methods as well. This users' manual, software, and database are all in the public domain and can be obtained by contacting the author. The Compact Disk (CD) accompanying this manual contains an executable file for the FLAPS program, two datasets required for the example problems in the manual, and the creep-fatigue data in a format compatible with these programs.

DNA sequencing and predictions of the cosmic theory of life

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wickramasinghe, N. Chandra

2013-01-01

The theory of cometary panspermia, developed by the late Sir Fred Hoyle and the present author argues that life originated cosmically as a unique event in one of a great multitude of comets or planetary bodies in the Universe. Life on Earth did not originate here but was introduced by impacting comets, and its further evolution was driven by the subsequent acquisition of cosmically derived genes. Explicit predictions of this theory published in 1979-1981, stating how the acquisition of new genes drives evolution, are compared with recent developments in relation to horizontal gene transfer, and the role of retroviruses in evolution. Precisely-stated predictions of the theory of cometary panspermia are shown to have been verified.

DNA Sequencing and Predictions of the Cosmic Theory of Life

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wickramasinghe, N. Chandra

The theory of cometary panspermia, developed by the late Sir Fred Hoyle and the present author argues that life originated cosmically as a unique event in one of a great multitude of comets or planetary bodies in the Universe. Life on Earth did not originate here but was introduced by impacting comets, and its further evolution was driven by the subsequent acquisition of cosmically derived genes. Explicit predictions of this theory published in 1979-1981, stating how the acquisition of new genes drives evolution, are compared with recent developments in relation to horizontal gene transfer, and the role of retroviruses in evolution. Precisely-stated predictions of the theory of cometary panspermia are shown to have been verified.

Thermal barrier coating life prediction model development, phase 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Demasi, Jeanine T.; Ortiz, Milton

1989-01-01

The objective of this program was to establish a methodology to predict thermal barrier coating (TBC) life on gas turbine engine components. The approach involved experimental life measurement coupled with analytical modeling of relevant degradation modes. Evaluation of experimental and flight service components indicate the predominant failure mode to be thermomechanical spallation of the ceramic coating layer resulting from propagation of a dominant near interface crack. Examination of fractionally exposed specimens indicated that dominant crack formation results from progressive structural damage in the form of subcritical microcrack link-up. Tests conducted to isolate important life drivers have shown MCrAlY oxidation to significantly affect the rate of damage accumulation. Mechanical property testing has shown the plasma deposited ceramic to exhibit a non-linear stress-strain response, creep and fatigue. The fatigue based life prediction model developed accounts for the unusual ceramic behavior and also incorporates an experimentally determined oxide rate model. The model predicts the growth of this oxide scale to influence the intensity of the mechanic driving force, resulting from cyclic strains and stresses caused by thermally induced and externally imposed mechanical loads.

Nondestructive Characterization Techniques Used for Ceramic Matrix Composite Life Determination

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Effinger, Michael; Koenig, John; Ellingson, Bill; Spohnholtz, Todd

2000-01-01

Recent results indicate that the specific damping capacity and resonant frequency measurements taken periodically during a component's lifetime is able to quantify the mechanical fatigue of CMCS. This gives hope for the potential of determining the actual and residual life of CMC materials using a combination of nondestructive techniques. If successful, then this new paradigm for life prediction of CMCs could revolutionize the approach for designing and servicing CMC components, thereby significantly reducing costs for design, development, health monitoring, and maintenance of CMC components and systems. The Nondestructive Characterization (NDC) life prediction approach would complement life prediction using micromechanics and continuum finite element models. This paper reports on the initial concept of NDC life prediction, a review of the C/SiC blisk damping data, and how changes in the specific damping capacity & ultrasonic elastic modulus data have established the concept as a possibility.

Concept for Determining the Life of Ceramic Matrix Composites Using Nondestructive Characterization Techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Effinger, Michael; Ellingson, Bill; Spohnholtz, Todd; Koenig, John

2000-01-01

Damping measurements have been taken on ceramic matrix composite (CMC) turbopump blisks in the as fabricated, post proof testing, and post turbopump testing conditions. These results indicate that damping is able to quantify fatigue of the CMC blisk. This gives hope for the potential of determining the actual and residual life of CMC materials using a combination of nondestructive techniques. If successful, then this new paradigm for life prediction of CMCs could revolutionize the approach for designing and servicing CMC components, thereby significantly reducing costs for design, development, health monitoring, and maintenance of CMC components and systems. The Nondestructive Characterization (NDC) life prediction approach would complement life prediction using micromechanics and continuum finite element models. This paper reports on the initial concept of NDC life prediction and how changes in damping and ultrasonic elastic modulus data have established the concept as a possibility.

Development and Implementation of a Hardware In-the-Loop Test Bed for Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Control Algorithms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nyangweso, Emmanuel; Bole, Brian

2014-01-01

Successful prediction and management of battery life using prognostic algorithms through ground and flight tests is important for performance evaluation of electrical systems. This paper details the design of test beds suitable for replicating loading profiles that would be encountered in deployed electrical systems. The test bed data will be used to develop and validate prognostic algorithms for predicting battery discharge time and battery failure time. Online battery prognostic algorithms will enable health management strategies. The platform used for algorithm demonstration is the EDGE 540T electric unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). The fully designed test beds developed and detailed in this paper can be used to conduct battery life tests by controlling current and recording voltage and temperature to develop a model that makes a prediction of end-of-charge and end-of-life of the system based on rapid state of health (SOH) assessment.

Fatigue life analysis of a turboprop reduction gearbox

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewicki, D. G.; Black, J. D.; Savage, M.; Coy, J. J.

1985-01-01

A fatigue life analysis of the Allison T56/501 turboprop reduction gearbox was developed. The life and reliability of the gearbox was based on the lives and reliabilities of the main power train bearings and gears. The bearing and gear lives were determined using the Lundberg-Palmgren theory and a mission profile. The five planet bearing set had the shortest calculated life among the various gearbox components, which agreed with field experience where the planet bearing had the greatest incidences of failure. The analytical predictions of relative lives among the various bearings were in reasonable agreement with field experience. The predicted gearbox life was in excellent agreement with field data when the material life adjustment factors alone were used. The gearbox had a lower predicted life in comparison with field data when no life adjustment factors were used or when lubrication life adjustment factors were used either alone or in combination with the material factors.

Fatigue life analysis of a turboprop reduction gearbox

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewicki, D. G.; Coy, J. J.; Black, J. D.; Savage, M.

1986-01-01

A fatigue life analysis of the Allison T56/501 turboprop reduction gearbox was developed. The life and reliability of the gearbox was based on the lives and reliabilities of the main power train bearings and gears. The bearing and gear lives were determined using the Lundberg-Palmgren theory and a mission profile. The five planet bearing set had the shortest calculated life among the various gearbox components, which agreed with field experience where the planet bearing had the greatest incidences of failure. The analytical predictions of relative lives among the various bearings were in reasonable agreement with field experience. The predicted gearbox life was in excellent agreement with field data when the material life adjustment factors alone were used. The gearbox had a lower predicted life in comparison with field data when no life adjustment factors were used or when lubrication life adjustment factors were used either alone or in combination with the material factors.

Ceramic Matrix Composites (CMC) Life Prediction Method Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Levine, Stanley R.; Calomino, Anthony M.; Ellis, John R.; Halbig, Michael C.; Mital, Subodh K.; Murthy, Pappu L.; Opila, Elizabeth J.; Thomas, David J.; Thomas-Ogbuji, Linus U.; Verrilli, Michael J.

2000-01-01

Advanced launch systems (e.g., Reusable Launch Vehicle and other Shuttle Class concepts, Rocket-Based Combine Cycle, etc.), and interplanetary vehicles will very likely incorporate fiber reinforced ceramic matrix composites (CMC) in critical propulsion components. The use of CMC is highly desirable to save weight, to improve reuse capability, and to increase performance. CMC candidate applications are mission and cycle dependent and may include turbopump rotors, housings, combustors, nozzle injectors, exit cones or ramps, and throats. For reusable and single mission uses, accurate prediction of life is critical to mission success. The tools to accomplish life prediction are very immature and not oriented toward the behavior of carbon fiber reinforced silicon carbide (C/SiC), the primary system of interest for a variety of space propulsion applications. This paper describes an approach to satisfy the need to develop an integrated life prediction system for CMC that addresses mechanical durability due to cyclic and steady thermomechanical loads, and takes into account the impact of environmental degradation.

Real-Time Prognostics of a Rotary Valve Actuator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daigle, Matthew

2015-01-01

Valves are used in many domains and often have system-critical functions. As such, it is important to monitor the health of valves and their actuators and predict remaining useful life. In this work, we develop a model-based prognostics approach for a rotary valve actuator. Due to limited observability of the component with multiple failure modes, a lumped damage approach is proposed for estimation and prediction of damage progression. In order to support the goal of real-time prognostics, an approach to prediction is developed that does not require online simulation to compute remaining life, rather, a function mapping the damage state to remaining useful life is found offline so that predictions can be made quickly online with a single function evaluation. Simulation results demonstrate the overall methodology, validating the lumped damage approach and demonstrating real-time prognostics.

Positive life events predict salivary cortisol in pregnant women.

PubMed

Pluess, Michael; Wurmser, Harald; Buske-Kirschbaum, Angelika; Papousek, Mechthild; Pirke, Karl-Martin; Hellhammer, Dirk; Bolten, Margarete

2012-08-01

Maternal stress during pregnancy has been repeatedly associated with problematic child development. According to the fetal programming hypothesis adverse experiences during pregnancy increase maternal cortisol, which is then assumed to exert a negative effect on fetal development. Recent studies in non-pregnant women report significant associations between positive emotionality and low cortisol levels. We tested in a sample of 60 pregnant women whether both negative and positive life events independently predicted third-trimester baseline awakening cortisol levels. While the effect of negative life events proved unrelated positive life events significantly predicted lower cortisol levels. These findings suggest that positive experiences are of relevance regarding maternal morning cortisol levels in pregnancy reflecting a resource with potentially beneficial effects for the mother and the developing fetus. It might be promising for psychological intervention programs to focus on increasing positive experiences of the expecting mother rather than exclusively trying to reduce maternal stress during pregnancy. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Condition Assessment and End-of-Life Prediction System for Electric Machines and Their Loads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parlos, Alexander G.; Toliyat, Hamid A.

2005-01-01

An end-of-life prediction system developed for electric machines and their loads could be used in integrated vehicle health monitoring at NASA and in other government agencies. This system will provide on-line, real-time condition assessment and end-of-life prediction of electric machines (e.g., motors, generators) and/or their loads of mechanically coupled machinery (e.g., pumps, fans, compressors, turbines, conveyor belts, magnetic levitation trains, and others). In long-duration space flight, the ability to predict the lifetime of machinery could spell the difference between mission success or failure. Therefore, the system described here may be of inestimable value to the U.S. space program. The system will provide continuous monitoring for on-line condition assessment and end-of-life prediction as opposed to the current off-line diagnoses.

Who will have Sustainable Employment After a Back Injury? The Development of a Clinical Prediction Model in a Cohort of Injured Workers.

PubMed

Shearer, Heather M; Côté, Pierre; Boyle, Eleanor; Hayden, Jill A; Frank, John; Johnson, William G

2017-09-01

Purpose Our objective was to develop a clinical prediction model to identify workers with sustainable employment following an episode of work-related low back pain (LBP). Methods We used data from a cohort study of injured workers with incident LBP claims in the USA to predict employment patterns 1 and 6 months following a workers' compensation claim. We developed three sequential models to determine the contribution of three domains of variables: (1) basic demographic/clinical variables; (2) health-related variables; and (3) work-related factors. Multivariable logistic regression was used to develop the predictive models. We constructed receiver operator curves and used the c-index to measure predictive accuracy. Results Seventy-nine percent and 77 % of workers had sustainable employment at 1 and 6 months, respectively. Sustainable employment at 1 month was predicted by initial back pain intensity, mental health-related quality of life, claim litigation and employer type (c-index = 0.77). At 6 months, sustainable employment was predicted by physical and mental health-related quality of life, claim litigation and employer type (c-index = 0.77). Adding health-related and work-related variables to models improved predictive accuracy by 8.5 and 10 % at 1 and 6 months respectively. Conclusion We developed clinically-relevant models to predict sustainable employment in injured workers who made a workers' compensation claim for LBP. Inquiring about back pain intensity, physical and mental health-related quality of life, claim litigation and employer type may be beneficial in developing programs of care. Our models need to be validated in other populations.

Rapid and accurate prediction of degradant formation rates in pharmaceutical formulations using high-performance liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry.

PubMed

Darrington, Richard T; Jiao, Jim

2004-04-01

Rapid and accurate stability prediction is essential to pharmaceutical formulation development. Commonly used stability prediction methods include monitoring parent drug loss at intended storage conditions or initial rate determination of degradants under accelerated conditions. Monitoring parent drug loss at the intended storage condition does not provide a rapid and accurate stability assessment because often <0.5% drug loss is all that can be observed in a realistic time frame, while the accelerated initial rate method in conjunction with extrapolation of rate constants using the Arrhenius or Eyring equations often introduces large errors in shelf-life prediction. In this study, the shelf life prediction of a model pharmaceutical preparation utilizing sensitive high-performance liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC/MS) to directly quantitate degradant formation rates at the intended storage condition is proposed. This method was compared to traditional shelf life prediction approaches in terms of time required to predict shelf life and associated error in shelf life estimation. Results demonstrated that the proposed LC/MS method using initial rates analysis provided significantly improved confidence intervals for the predicted shelf life and required less overall time and effort to obtain the stability estimation compared to the other methods evaluated. Copyright 2004 Wiley-Liss, Inc. and the American Pharmacists Association.

Development of a Late-Life Dementia Prediction Index with Supervised Machine Learning in the Population-Based CAIDE Study.

PubMed

Pekkala, Timo; Hall, Anette; Lötjönen, Jyrki; Mattila, Jussi; Soininen, Hilkka; Ngandu, Tiia; Laatikainen, Tiina; Kivipelto, Miia; Solomon, Alina

2017-01-01

This study aimed to develop a late-life dementia prediction model using a novel validated supervised machine learning method, the Disease State Index (DSI), in the Finnish population-based CAIDE study. The CAIDE study was based on previous population-based midlife surveys. CAIDE participants were re-examined twice in late-life, and the first late-life re-examination was used as baseline for the present study. The main study population included 709 cognitively normal subjects at first re-examination who returned to the second re-examination up to 10 years later (incident dementia n = 39). An extended population (n = 1009, incident dementia 151) included non-participants/non-survivors (national registers data). DSI was used to develop a dementia index based on first re-examination assessments. Performance in predicting dementia was assessed as area under the ROC curve (AUC). AUCs for DSI were 0.79 and 0.75 for main and extended populations. Included predictors were cognition, vascular factors, age, subjective memory complaints, and APOE genotype. The supervised machine learning method performed well in identifying comprehensive profiles for predicting dementia development up to 10 years later. DSI could thus be useful for identifying individuals who are most at risk and may benefit from dementia prevention interventions.

Life prediction of turbine components: On-going studies at the NASA Lewis Research Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spera, D. A.; Grisaffe, S. J.

1973-01-01

An overview is presented of the many studies at NASA-Lewis that form the turbine component life prediction program. This program has three phases: (1) development of life prediction methods for major failure modes through materials studies, (2) evaluation and improvement of these methods through a variety of burner rig studies on simulated components in research engines and advanced rigs. These three phases form a cooperative, interdisciplinary program. A bibliography of Lewis publications on fatigue, oxidation and coatings, and turbine engine alloys is included.

A high temperature fatigue life prediction computer code based on the total strain version of StrainRange Partitioning (SRP)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcgaw, Michael A.; Saltsman, James F.

1993-01-01

A recently developed high-temperature fatigue life prediction computer code is presented and an example of its usage given. The code discussed is based on the Total Strain version of Strainrange Partitioning (TS-SRP). Included in this code are procedures for characterizing the creep-fatigue durability behavior of an alloy according to TS-SRP guidelines and predicting cyclic life for complex cycle types for both isothermal and thermomechanical conditions. A reasonably extensive materials properties database is included with the code.

Evaluation of corrosion fatigue and life prediction of lower arm for automotive suspension component

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Yong-Sang; Kim, Jung-Gu

2017-01-01

Lower arm is one of the suspension components of automobile. It is suffered from driving vibration and corrosive environment, namely corrosion fatigue. In this study, corrosion fatigue property of lower arm was investigated, and a modified model based on Palmgren-Miner rule was developed to predict the lifetimes of corrosion fatigue. The corrosion fatigue life of lower arm was about 1/6 times shorter than fatigue life. Based on the results of corrosion fatigue tests and meteorological data in Seoul and Halifax, the corrosion fatigue life of lower arm was predicted. The satisfaction of 10-year and 300,000 km warranty was dominated by the climate of automobile driving. This prediction indicates that the weather condition or driving condition influences the life of automotive parts. Therefore, to determine the warranty of automotive parts, the driving condition has to be carefully considered.

Model to predict hyperbilirubinemia in healthy term and near-term newborns with exclusive breast feeding.

PubMed

Huang, Hsin-Chung; Yang, Hwai-I; Chang, Yu-Hsun; Chang, Rui-Jane; Chen, Mei-Huei; Chen, Chien-Yi; Chou, Hung-Chieh; Hsieh, Wu-Shiun; Tsao, Po-Nien

2012-12-01

The aim of this study was to identify high-risk newborns who will subsequently develop significant hyperbilirubinemia Days 4 to 10 of life by using the clinical data from the first three days of life. We retrospectively collected exclusively breastfeeding healthy term and near-term newborns born in our nursery between May 1, 2002, to June 30, 2005. Clinical data, including serum bilirubin were collected and the significant predictors were identified. Bilirubin level ≥15mg/dL during Days 4 to 10 of life was defined as significant hyperbilirubinemia. A prediction model to predict subsequent hyperbilirubinemia was established. This model was externally validated in another group of newborns who were enrolled by the same criteria to test its discrimination capability. Totally, 1979 neonates were collected and 1208 cases were excluded by our exclusion criteria. Finally, 771 newborns were enrolled and 182 (23.6%) cases developed significant hyperbilirubinemia during Days 4 to 10 of life. In the logistic regression analysis, gestational age, maximal body weight loss percentage, and peak bilirubin level during the first 72 hours of life were significantly associated with subsequent hyperbilirubinemia. A prediction model was derived with the area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve of 0.788. Model validation in the separate study (N = 209) showed similar discrimination capability (AUROC = 0.8340). Gestational age, maximal body weight loss percentage, and peak serum bilirubin level during the first 3 days of life have highest predictive value of subsequent significant hyperbilirubinemia. We provide a good model to predict the risk of subsequent significant hyperbilirubinemia. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Fish early life stage: Developing AOPs to support targeted reduction and replacement

EPA Science Inventory

There is an interest in developing alternatives to the fish early-life stage (FELS) test (OECD test guideline 210), for predicting adverse chronic toxicity outcomes (e.g., impacts on growth and survival). Development and characterization of adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) related...

Determination of life for a polyimide-epoxy alternator insulation system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Penn, W. B.; Schaefer, R. F.; Balke, R. L.

1974-01-01

Tests were conducted to predict remaining electrical insulation life of a polyimide epoxy insulated 60 KW, 208 volt homopolar inductor alternator, following completion of 23,130 hours of turbo-alternator endurance tests. The sectioned armature winding of this alternator stator was used as means to evaluate and measure end-life at several aging temperatures for development of an Arrhenius plot. A one-half life rate of 11.3 C was established from these data with a predicted remaining life of 60,000 hours at an armature winding temperature of 248 C and a total life, including endurance test time, of 61,645 hours.

Negative life events and symptoms of depression and anxiety: stress causation and/or stress generation.

PubMed

Phillips, Anna C; Carroll, Douglas; Der, Geoff

2015-01-01

Stressful life events are known to contribute to development of depression; however, it is possible this link is bidirectional. The present study examined whether such stress generation effects are greater than the effects of stressful life events on depression, and whether stress generation is also evident with anxiety. Participants were two large age cohorts (N = 732 aged 44 years; N = 705 aged 63 years) from the West of Scotland Twenty-07 study. Stressful life events, depression, and anxiety symptoms were measured twice five years apart. Cross-lagged panel analysis examined the mutual influences of stressful life events on depression and on anxiety over time. Life events predicted later depressive symptomatology (p = .01), but the depression predicting life events relationship was less strong (p = .06), whereas earlier anxiety predicted life events five years later (p = .001). There was evidence of sex differences in the extent to which life events predicted later anxiety. This study provides evidence of stress causation for depression and weaker evidence for stress generation. In contrast, there was strong evidence of stress generation for anxiety but weaker evidence for stress causation, and that differed for men and women.

Negative life events and symptoms of depression and anxiety: Stress causation and/or stress generation

PubMed Central

Phillips, Anna C.; Carroll, Douglas; Der, Geoff

2016-01-01

Background and Objectives Stressful life events are known to contribute to development of depression, however, it is possible this link is bi-directional. The present study examined whether such stress generation effects are greater than the effects of stressful life events on depression, and whether stress generation is also evident with anxiety. Design Participants were two large age cohorts (N = 732 aged 44 years; N = 705 aged 63 years) from the West of Scotland Twenty-07 study. Methods Stressful life events, depression and anxiety symptoms were measured twice five years apart. Cross-lagged panel analysis examined the mutual influences of stressful life events on depression and on anxiety over time. Results Life events predicted later depressive symptomatology (p = .01), but the depression predicting life events relationship was less strong (p = .06), whereas earlier anxiety predicted life events five years later (p = .001). There was evidence of sex differences in the extent to which life events predicted later anxiety. Conclusions This study provides evidence of stress causation for depression and weaker evidence for stress generation. In contrast, there was strong evidence of stress generation for anxiety but weaker evidence for stress causation, and that differed for men and women. PMID:25572915

The Future Is Bright and Predictable: The Development of Prospective Life Stories across Childhood and Adolescence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bohn, Annette; Berntsen, Dorthe

2013-01-01

When do children develop the ability to imagine their future lives in terms of a coherent prospective life story? We investigated whether this ability develops in parallel with the ability to construct a life story for the past and narratives about single autobiographical events in the past and future. Four groups of school children aged 9 to 15…

Life prediction methodology for thermal-mechanical fatigue and elevated temperature creep design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Annigeri, Ravindra

Nickel-based superalloys are used for hot section components of gas turbine engines. Life prediction techniques are necessary to assess service damage in superalloy components resulting from thermal-mechanical fatigue (TMF) and elevated temperature creep. A new TMF life model based on continuum damage mechanics has been developed and applied to IN 738 LC substrate material with and without coating. The model also characterizes TMF failure in bulk NiCoCrAlY overlay and NiAl aluminide coatings. The inputs to the TMF life model are mechanical strain range, hold time, peak cycle temperatures and maximum stress measured from the stabilized or mid-life hysteresis loops. A viscoplastic model is used to predict the stress-strain hysteresis loops. A flow rule used in the viscoplastic model characterizes the inelastic strain rate as a function of the applied stress and a set of three internal stress variables known as back stress, drag stress and limit stress. Test results show that the viscoplastic model can reasonably predict time-dependent stress-strain response of the coated material and stress relaxation during hold times. In addition to the TMF life prediction methodology, a model has been developed to characterize the uniaxial and multiaxial creep behavior. An effective stress defined as the applied stress minus the back stress is used to characterize the creep recovery and primary creep behavior. The back stress has terms representing strain hardening, dynamic recovery and thermal recovery. Whenever the back stress is greater than the applied stress, the model predicts a negative creep rate observed during multiple stress and multiple temperature cyclic tests. The model also predicted the rupture time and the remaining life that are important for life assessment. The model has been applied to IN 738 LC, Mar-M247, bulk NiCoCrAlY overlay coating and 316 austenitic stainless steel. The proposed model predicts creep response with a reasonable accuracy for wide range of loading cases such as uniaxial tension, tension-torsion and tension-internal pressure loading.

Effects of surface chemistry on hot corrosion life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fryxell, R. E.; Leese, G. E.

1985-01-01

This program has its primary objective: the development of hot corrosion life prediction methodology based on a combination of laboratory test data and evaluation of field service turbine components which show evidence of hot corrosion. The laboratory program comprises burner rig testing by TRW. A summary of results is given for two series of burner rig tests. The life prediction methodology parameters to be appraised in a final campaign of burner rig tests are outlined.

Stressful Life Events, Anxiety Sensitivity, and Internalizing Symptoms in Adolescents

PubMed Central

McLaughlin, Katie A.; Hatzenbuehler, Mark L.

2010-01-01

Anxiety sensitivity represents a robust risk factor for the development of anxiety symptoms among both adolescents and adults. However, the development of anxiety sensitivity among adolescents remains inadequately understood. In this study, the authors examined the role of stressful life events as a risk factor for the development of elevated anxiety sensitivity. Anxiety sensitivity was then examined in a longitudinal design as a mechanism linking stressful life events to changes in anxiety symptoms. Stressful life events, anxiety sensitivity, and internalizing symptoms were assessed in a diverse community sample of adolescents (N = 1,065) at 3 time points spanning 7 months. The results indicated that stressful life events were longitudinally associated with increases in anxiety sensitivity and that certain types of stressful life events, specifically events related to health and events related to family discord, were differentially predictive of increases in anxiety sensitivity. Moreover, anxiety sensitivity mediated the longitudinal relation between stressful life events and anxiety symptoms. Evidence was also found for the predictive specificity of anxiety sensitivity to symptoms of anxiety but not depression. PMID:19685962

Stressful life events, anxiety sensitivity, and internalizing symptoms in adolescents.

PubMed

McLaughlin, Katie A; Hatzenbuehler, Mark L

2009-08-01

Anxiety sensitivity represents a robust risk factor for the development of anxiety symptoms among both adolescents and adults. However, the development of anxiety sensitivity among adolescents remains inadequately understood. In this study, the authors examined the role of stressful life events as a risk factor for the development of elevated anxiety sensitivity. Anxiety sensitivity was then examined in a longitudinal design as a mechanism linking stressful life events to changes in anxiety symptoms. Stressful life events, anxiety sensitivity, and internalizing symptoms were assessed in a diverse community sample of adolescents (N = 1,065) at 3 time points spanning 7 months. The results indicated that stressful life events were longitudinally associated with increases in anxiety sensitivity and that certain types of stressful life events, specifically events related to health and events related to family discord, were differentially predictive of increases in anxiety sensitivity. Moreover, anxiety sensitivity mediated the longitudinal relation between stressful life events and anxiety symptoms. Evidence was also found for the predictive specificity of anxiety sensitivity to symptoms of anxiety but not depression.

Behavioural mediators of genetic life-history trade-offs: a test of the pace-of-life syndrome hypothesis in field crickets.

PubMed

Santostefano, Francesca; Wilson, Alastair J; Niemelä, Petri T; Dingemanse, Niels J

2017-10-11

The pace-of-life syndrome (POLS) hypothesis predicts associations between life history and 'risky' behaviours. Individuals with 'fast' lifestyles should develop faster, reproduce earlier, exhibit more risk-prone behaviours, and die sooner than those with 'slow' lifestyles. While support for POLS has been equivocal to date, studies have relied on individual-level (phenotypic) patterns in which genetic trade-offs may be masked by environmental effects on phenotypes. We estimated genetic correlations between life history (development, lifespan, size) and risky behaviours (exploration, aggression) in a pedigreed population of Mediterranean field crickets ( Gryllus bimaculatus ). Path analyses showed that behaviours mediated some genetic relationships between life history traits, though not those involved in trade-offs. Thus, while specific predictions of POLS theory were not supported, genetic integration of behaviour and life history was present. This implies a major role for risky behaviours in life history evolution. © 2017 The Author(s).

Rolling Bearing Life Prediction, Theory, and Application

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaretsky, Erwin V.

2016-01-01

A tutorial is presented outlining the evolution, theory, and application of rolling-element bearing life prediction from that of A. Palmgren, 1924; W. Weibull, 1939; G. Lundberg and A. Palmgren, 1947 and 1952; E. Ioannides and T. Harris, 1985; and E. Zaretsky, 1987. Comparisons are made between these life models. The Ioannides-Harris model without a fatigue limit is identical to the Lundberg-Palmgren model. The Weibull model is similar to that of Zaretsky if the exponents are chosen to be identical. Both the load-life and Hertz stress-life relations of Weibull, Lundberg and Palmgren, and Ioannides and Harris reflect a strong dependence on the Weibull slope. The Zaretsky model decouples the dependence of the critical shear stress-life relation from the Weibull slope. This results in a nominal variation of the Hertz stress-life exponent. For 9th- and 8th-power Hertz stress-life exponents for ball and roller bearings, respectively, the Lundberg-Palmgren model best predicts life. However, for 12th- and 10th-power relations reflected by modern bearing steels, the Zaretsky model based on the Weibull equation is superior. Under the range of stresses examined, the use of a fatigue limit would suggest that (for most operating conditions under which a rolling-element bearing will operate) the bearing will not fail from classical rolling-element fatigue. Realistically, this is not the case. The use of a fatigue limit will significantly overpredict life over a range of normal operating Hertz stresses. (The use of ISO 281:2007 with a fatigue limit in these calculations would result in a bearing life approaching infinity.) Since the predicted lives of rolling-element bearings are high, the problem can become one of undersizing a bearing for a particular application. Rules had been developed to distinguish and compare predicted lives with those actually obtained. Based upon field and test results of 51 ball and roller bearing sets, 98 percent of these bearing sets had acceptable life results using the Lundberg- Palmgren equations with life adjustment factors to predict bearing life. That is, they had lives equal to or greater than that predicted. The Lundberg-Palmgren model was used to predict the life of a commercial turboprop gearbox. The life prediction was compared with the field lives of 64 gearboxes. From these results, the roller bearing lives exhibited a load-life exponent of 5.2, which correlated with the Zaretsky model. The use of the ANSI/ABMA and ISO standards load-life exponent of 10/3 to predict roller bearing life is not reflective of modern roller bearings and will underpredict bearing lives.

Exposure to unpredictable maternal sensory signals influences cognitive development across species.

PubMed

Davis, Elysia Poggi; Stout, Stephanie A; Molet, Jenny; Vegetabile, Brian; Glynn, Laura M; Sandman, Curt A; Heins, Kevin; Stern, Hal; Baram, Tallie Z

2017-09-26

Maternal care is a critical determinant of child development. However, our understanding of processes and mechanisms by which maternal behavior influences the developing human brain remains limited. Animal research has illustrated that patterns of sensory information is important in shaping neural circuits during development. Here we examined the relation between degree of predictability of maternal sensory signals early in life and subsequent cognitive function in both humans ( n = 128 mother/infant dyads) and rats ( n = 12 dams; 28 adolescents). Behaviors of mothers interacting with their offspring were observed in both species, and an entropy rate was calculated as a quantitative measure of degree of predictability of transitions among maternal sensory signals (visual, auditory, and tactile). Human cognitive function was assessed at age 2 y with the Bayley Scales of Infant Development and at age 6.5 y with a hippocampus-dependent delayed-recall task. Rat hippocampus-dependent spatial memory was evaluated on postnatal days 49-60. Early life exposure to unpredictable sensory signals portended poor cognitive performance in both species. The present study provides evidence that predictability of maternal sensory signals early in life impacts cognitive function in both rats and humans. The parallel between experimental animal and observational human data lends support to the argument that predictability of maternal sensory signals causally influences cognitive development.

Fatigue Life Methodology for Bonded Composite Skin/Stringer Configurations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krueger, Ronald; Paris, Isabelle L.; OBrien, T. Kevin; Minguet, Pierre J.

2001-01-01

A methodology is presented for determining the fatigue life of composite structures based on fatigue characterization data and geometric nonlinear finite element (FE) analyses. To demonstrate the approach, predicted results were compared to fatigue tests performed on specimens which represented a tapered composite flange bonded onto a composite skin. In a first step, tension tests were performed to evaluate the debonding mechanisms between the flange and the skin. In a second step, a 2D FE model was developed to analyze the tests. To predict matrix cracking onset, the relationship between the tension load and the maximum principal stresses transverse to the fiber direction was determined through FE analysis. Transverse tension fatigue life data were used to -enerate an onset fatigue life P-N curve for matrix cracking. The resulting prediction was in good agreement with data from the fatigue tests. In a third step, a fracture mechanics approach based on FE analysis was used to determine the relationship between the tension load and the critical energy release rate. Mixed mode energy release rate fatigue life data were used to create a fatigue life onset G-N curve for delamination. The resulting prediction was in good agreement with data from the fatigue tests. Further, the prediction curve for cumulative life to failure was generated from the previous onset fatigue life curves. The results showed that the methodology offers a significant potential to Predict cumulative fatigue life of composite structures.

The Search for Biosignatures on Mars: Using Predictive Geology to Optimize Exploration Targets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oehler, Dorothy Z.; Allen, Carlton C.

2011-01-01

Predicting geologic context from satellite data is a method used on Earth for exploration in areas with limited ground truth. The method can be used to predict facies likely to contain organic-rich shales. Such shales concentrate and preserve organics and are major repositories of organic biosignatures on Earth [1]. Since current surface conditions on Mars are unfavorable for development of abundant life or for preservation of organic remains of past life, the chances are low of encountering organics in surface samples. Thus, focusing martian exploration on sites predicted to contain organic-rich shales would optimize the chances of discovering evidence of life, if it ever existed on that planet.

Life prediction for white OLED based on LSM under lognormal distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jianping; Liu, Fang; Liu, Yu; Wu, Helen; Zhu, Wenqing; Wu, Wenli; Wu, Liang

2012-09-01

In order to acquire the reliability information of White Organic Light Emitting Display (OLED), three groups of OLED constant stress accelerated life tests (CSALTs) were carried out to obtain failure data of samples. Lognormal distribution function was applied to describe OLED life distribution, and the accelerated life equation was determined by Least square method (LSM). The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was performed to verify whether the white OLED life meets lognormal distribution or not. Author-developed software was employed to predict the average life and the median life. The numerical results indicate that the white OLED life submits to lognormal distribution, and that the accelerated life equation meets inverse power law completely. The estimated life information of the white OLED provides manufacturers and customers with important guidelines.

Progressive failure methodologies for predicting residual strength and life of laminated composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harris, Charles E.; Allen, David H.; Obrien, T. Kevin

1991-01-01

Two progressive failure methodologies currently under development by the Mechanics of Materials Branch at NASA Langley Research Center are discussed. The damage tolerance/fail safety methodology developed by O'Brien is an engineering approach to ensuring adequate durability and damage tolerance by treating only delamination onset and the subsequent delamination accumulation through the laminate thickness. The continuum damage model developed by Allen and Harris employs continuum damage laws to predict laminate strength and life. The philosophy, mechanics framework, and current implementation status of each methodology are presented.

Development of a Late-Life Dementia Prediction Index with Supervised Machine Learning in the Population-Based CAIDE Study

PubMed Central

Pekkala, Timo; Hall, Anette; Lötjönen, Jyrki; Mattila, Jussi; Soininen, Hilkka; Ngandu, Tiia; Laatikainen, Tiina; Kivipelto, Miia; Solomon, Alina

2016-01-01

Background and objective: This study aimed to develop a late-life dementia prediction model using a novel validated supervised machine learning method, the Disease State Index (DSI), in the Finnish population-based CAIDE study. Methods: The CAIDE study was based on previous population-based midlife surveys. CAIDE participants were re-examined twice in late-life, and the first late-life re-examination was used as baseline for the present study. The main study population included 709 cognitively normal subjects at first re-examination who returned to the second re-examination up to 10 years later (incident dementia n = 39). An extended population (n = 1009, incident dementia 151) included non-participants/non-survivors (national registers data). DSI was used to develop a dementia index based on first re-examination assessments. Performance in predicting dementia was assessed as area under the ROC curve (AUC). Results: AUCs for DSI were 0.79 and 0.75 for main and extended populations. Included predictors were cognition, vascular factors, age, subjective memory complaints, and APOE genotype. Conclusion: The supervised machine learning method performed well in identifying comprehensive profiles for predicting dementia development up to 10 years later. DSI could thus be useful for identifying individuals who are most at risk and may benefit from dementia prevention interventions. PMID:27802228

Predicting the remaining service life of concrete

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clifton, J.F.

1991-11-01

Nuclear power plants are providing, currently, about 17 percent of the U.S. electricity and many of these plants are approaching their licensed life of 40 years. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Department of Energy`s Oak Ridge National Laboratory are carrying out a program to develop a methodology for assessing the remaining safe-life of the concrete components and structures in nuclear power plants. This program has the overall objective of identifying potential structural safety issues, as well as acceptance criteria, for use in evaluations of nuclear power plants for continued service. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST)more » is contributing to this program by identifying and analyzing methods for predicting the remaining life of in-service concrete materials. This report examines the basis for predicting the remaining service lives of concrete materials of nuclear power facilities. Methods for predicting the service life of new and in-service concrete materials are analyzed. These methods include (1) estimates based on experience, (2) comparison of performance, (3) accelerated testing, (4) stochastic methods, and (5) mathematical modeling. New approaches for predicting the remaining service lives of concrete materials are proposed and recommendations for their further development given. Degradation processes are discussed based on considerations of their mechanisms, likelihood of occurrence, manifestations, and detection. They include corrosion, sulfate attack, alkali-aggregate reactions, frost attack, leaching, radiation, salt crystallization, and microbiological attack.« less

Improved protocol and data analysis for accelerated shelf-life estimation of solid dosage forms.

PubMed

Waterman, Kenneth C; Carella, Anthony J; Gumkowski, Michael J; Lukulay, Patrick; MacDonald, Bruce C; Roy, Michael C; Shamblin, Sheri L

2007-04-01

To propose and test a new accelerated aging protocol for solid-state, small molecule pharmaceuticals which provides faster predictions for drug substance and drug product shelf-life. The concept of an isoconversion paradigm, where times in different temperature and humidity-controlled stability chambers are set to provide a critical degradant level, is introduced for solid-state pharmaceuticals. Reliable estimates for temperature and relative humidity effects are handled using a humidity-corrected Arrhenius equation, where temperature and relative humidity are assumed to be orthogonal. Imprecision is incorporated into a Monte-Carlo simulation to propagate the variations inherent in the experiment. In early development phases, greater imprecision in predictions is tolerated to allow faster screening with reduced sampling. Early development data are then used to design appropriate test conditions for more reliable later stability estimations. Examples are reported showing that predicted shelf-life values for lower temperatures and different relative humidities are consistent with the measured shelf-life values at those conditions. The new protocols and analyses provide accurate and precise shelf-life estimations in a reduced time from current state of the art.

Diffusion Barriers to Increase the Oxidative Life of Overlay Coatings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nesbitt, James A.; Lei, Jih-Fen

1999-01-01

Currently, most blades and vanes in the hottest section of aero gas turbine engines require some type of coating for oxidation protection. Newly developed single crystal superalloys have the mechanical potential to operate at increasingly higher component temperatures. However, at these elevated temperatures, coating/substrate interdiffusion can shorten the protective life of the coating. Diffusion barriers between overlay coatings and substrates are being examined to extend the protective life of the coating. A previously- developed finite-difference diffusion model has been modified to predict the oxidative life enhancement due to use of a diffusion barrier. The original diffusion model, designated COSIM, simulates Al diffusion in the coating to the growing oxide scale as well as Al diffusion into the substrate. The COSIM model incorporates an oxide growth and spalling model to provide the rate of Al consumption during cyclic oxidation. Coating failure is predicted when the Al concentration at the coating surface drops to a defined critical level. The modified COSIM model predicts the oxidative life of an overlay coating when a diffusion barrier is present eliminating diffusion of Al from the coating into the substrate. Both the original and the modified diffusion models have been used to predict the effectiveness of a diffusion barrier in extending the protective life of a NiCrAl overlay coating undergoing cyclic oxidation at 1100 C.

The Genetics of Success: How SNPs Associated with Educational Attainment Relate to Life-Course Development

PubMed Central

Belsky, Daniel W; Moffitt, Terrie E; Corcoran, David L; Domingue, Benjamin; Harrington, HonaLee; Hogan, Sean; Houts, Renate; Ramrakha, Sandhya; Sugden, Karen; Williams, Benjamin; Poulton, Richie; Caspi, Avshalom

2016-01-01

Previous genome-wide association analysis (GWAS) of >100,000 individuals identified molecular-genetic predictors of educational attainment. We undertook in-depth life-course investigation of the polygenic score derived from this GWAS using the four-decade Dunedin Study (N=918). There were five main findings. First, polygenic scores predicted adult economic outcomes over and above completed education. Second, genes and environments were correlated; children with higher polygenic scores were born into better-off homes. Third, polygenic scores predicted children’s adult outcomes net of social-class origins; children with higher scores tended to be upwardly-socially-mobile. Fourth, polygenic scores predicted behavior across the life-course, from learning to talk earlier to acquiring reading skills more quickly, through geographic mobility and mate choice, on to financial planning for retirement. Fifth, polygenic-score associations were mediated by psychological characteristics including intelligence, self-control, and interpersonal skill. Effects were small. Factors connecting DNA sequence with life outcomes may provide targets for interventions to promote population-wide positive development. PMID:27251486

Transient Three-Dimensional Analysis of Nozzle Side Load in Regeneratively Cooled Engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

ng, Ten-See

2005-01-01

Nozzle side loads are potentially detrimental to the integrity and life of almost all launch vehicles. the lack of a detailed prediction capability results in reducing life and increased weight for reusable nozzle systems. A clear understanding of the mechanism that contribute to side loads during engine startup, shutdown, and steady-state operations must be established. A CFD based predictive tool must be developed to aid the understanding of side load physics and development of future reusable engine.

WHAT PREDICTS A SUCCESSFUL LIFE? A LIFE-COURSE MODEL OF WELL-BEING*

PubMed Central

Layard, Richard; Clark, Andrew E.; Cornaglia, Francesca; Powdthavee, Nattavudh; Vernoit, James

2014-01-01

Policy-makers who care about well-being need a recursive model of how adult life-satisfaction is predicted by childhood influences, acting both directly and (indirectly) through adult circumstances. We estimate such a model using the British Cohort Study (1970). We show that the most powerful childhood predictor of adult life-satisfaction is the child’s emotional health, followed by the child’s conduct. The least powerful predictor is the child’s intellectual development. This may have implications for educational policy. Among adult circumstances, family income accounts for only 0.5% of the variance of life-satisfaction. Mental and physical health are much more important. PMID:25422527

Development of a Composite Delamination Fatigue Life Prediction Methodology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

OBrien, Thomas K.

2009-01-01

Delamination is one of the most significant and unique failure modes in composite structures. Because of a lack of understanding of the consequences of delamination and the inability to predict delamination onset and growth, many composite parts are unnecessarily rejected upon inspection, both immediately after manufacture and while in service. NASA Langley is leading the efforts in the U.S. to develop a fatigue life prediction methodology for composite delamination using fracture mechanics. Research being performed to this end will be reviewed. Emphasis will be placed on the development of test standards for delamination characterization, incorporation of approaches for modeling delamination in commercial finite element codes, and efforts to mature the technology for use in design handbooks and certification documents.

Fatigue life prediction of rotor blade composites: Validation of constant amplitude formulations with variable amplitude experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westphal, T.; Nijssen, R. P. L.

2014-12-01

The effect of Constant Life Diagram (CLD) formulation on the fatigue life prediction under variable amplitude (VA) loading was investigated based on variable amplitude tests using three different load spectra representative for wind turbine loading. Next to the Wisper and WisperX spectra, the recently developed NewWisper2 spectrum was used. Based on these variable amplitude fatigue results the prediction accuracy of 4 CLD formulations is investigated. In the study a piecewise linear CLD based on the S-N curves for 9 load ratios compares favourably in terms of prediction accuracy and conservativeness. For the specific laminate used in this study Boerstra's Multislope model provides a good alternative at reduced test effort.

Childhood asthma-predictive phenotype.

PubMed

Guilbert, Theresa W; Mauger, David T; Lemanske, Robert F

2014-01-01

Wheezing is a fairly common symptom in early childhood, but only some of these toddlers will experience continued wheezing symptoms in later childhood. The definition of the asthma-predictive phenotype is in children with frequent, recurrent wheezing in early life who have risk factors associated with the continuation of asthma symptoms in later life. Several asthma-predictive phenotypes were developed retrospectively based on large, longitudinal cohort studies; however, it can be difficult to differentiate these phenotypes clinically as the expression of symptoms, and risk factors can change with time. Genetic, environmental, developmental, and host factors and their interactions may contribute to the development, severity, and persistence of the asthma phenotype over time. Key characteristics that distinguish the childhood asthma-predictive phenotype include the following: male sex; a history of wheezing, with lower respiratory tract infections; history of parental asthma; history of atopic dermatitis; eosinophilia; early sensitization to food or aeroallergens; or lower lung function in early life. Copyright © 2014 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Aging Theories for Establishing Safe Life Spans of Airborne Critical Structural Components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ko, William L.

2003-01-01

New aging theories have been developed to establish the safe life span of airborne critical structural components such as B-52B aircraft pylon hooks for carrying air-launch drop-test vehicles. The new aging theories use the equivalent-constant-amplitude loading spectrum to represent the actual random loading spectrum with the same damaging effect. The crack growth due to random loading cycling of the first flight is calculated using the half-cycle theory, and then extrapolated to all the crack growths of the subsequent flights. The predictions of the new aging theories (finite difference aging theory and closed-form aging theory) are compared with the classical flight-test life theory and the previously developed Ko first- and Ko second-order aging theories. The new aging theories predict the number of safe flights as considerably lower than that predicted by the classical aging theory, and slightly lower than those predicted by the Ko first- and Ko second-order aging theories due to the inclusion of all the higher order terms.

Crack propagation analysis and fatigue life prediction for structural alloy steel based on metal magnetic memory testing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ni, Chen; Hua, Lin; Wang, Xiaokai

2018-09-01

To monitor the crack propagation and predict the fatigue life of ferromagnetic material, the metal magnetic memory (MMM) testing was carried out to the single edge notched specimen made from structural alloy steel under three-point bending fatigue experiment in this paper. The variation of magnetic memory signal Hp (y) in process of fatigue crack propagation was investigated. The gradient K of Hp (y) was investigated and compared with the stress of specimen obtained by finite element analysis. It indicated that the gradient K can qualitatively reflect the distribution and variation of stress. The maximum gradient Kmax and crack size showed a good linear relationship, which indicated that the crack propagation can be estimated by MMM testing. Furthermore, the damage model represented by magnetic memory characteristic was created and a fatigue life prediction method was developed. The fatigue life can be evaluated by the relationship between damage parameter and normalized life. The method was also verified by another specimen. Because of MMM testing, it provided a new approach for predicting fatigue life.

A. Palmgren Revisited: A Basis for Bearing Life Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaretsky, Erwin V.

1997-01-01

Bearing technology, as well as the bearing industry, began to develop with the invention of the bicycle in the 1850's. At the same time, high-quality steel was made possible by the Bessemer process. In 1881, H. Hertz published his contact stress analysis. By 1902, R. Stribeck had published his work based on Hertz theory to calculate the maximum load of a radially loaded ball bearing. By 1920, all of the rolling bearing types used today were being manufactured. AISI 52100 bearing steel became the material of choice for these bearings. Beginning in 1918, engineers directed their attention to predicting the lives of these bearings. In 1924, A. Palmgren published a paper outlining his approach to bearing life prediction. This paper was the basis for the Lundberg-Palmgren life theory published in 1947. A critical review of the 1924 Palmgren paper is presented here together with a discussion of its effect on bearing life prediction.

Enhanced CARES Software Enables Improved Ceramic Life Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Janosik, Lesley A.

1997-01-01

The NASA Lewis Research Center has developed award-winning software that enables American industry to establish the reliability and life of brittle material (e.g., ceramic, intermetallic, graphite) structures in a wide variety of 21st century applications. The CARES (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) series of software is successfully used by numerous engineers in industrial, academic, and government organizations as an essential element of the structural design and material selection processes. The latest version of this software, CARES/Life, provides a general- purpose design tool that predicts the probability of failure of a ceramic component as a function of its time in service. CARES/Life was recently enhanced by adding new modules designed to improve functionality and user-friendliness. In addition, a beta version of the newly-developed CARES/Creep program (for determining the creep life of monolithic ceramic components) has just been released to selected organizations.

Small Crack Growth and Fatigue Life Predictions for High-Strength Aluminium Alloys. Part 1; Experimental and Fracture Mechanics Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, X. R.; Newman, J. C.; Zhao, W.; Swain, M. H.; Ding, C. F.; Phillips, E. P.

1998-01-01

The small crack effect was investigated in two high-strength aluminium alloys: 7075-T6 bare and LC9cs clad alloy. Both experimental and analytical investigations were conducted to study crack initiation and growth of small cracks. In the experimental program, fatigue tests, small crack and large crack tests A,ere conducted under constant amplitude and Mini-TWIST spectrum loading conditions. A pronounced small crack effect was observed in both materials, especially for the negative stress ratios. For all loading conditions, most of the fatigue life of the SENT specimens was shown to be crack propagation from initial material defects or from the cladding layer. In the analysis program, three-dimensional finite element and A weight function methods were used to determine stress intensity factors and to develop SIF equations for surface and corner cracks at the notch in the SENT specimens. A plastisity-induced crack-closure model was used to correlate small and large crack data, and to make fatigue life predictions, Predicted crack-growth rates and fatigue lives agreed well with experiments. A total fatigue life prediction method for the aluminum alloys was developed and demonstrated using the crack-closure model.

Thermal barrier coating life prediction model development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Demasi, J. T.

1986-01-01

A methodology is established to predict thermal barrier coating life in a environment similar to that experienced by gas turbine airfoils. Experiments were conducted to determine failure modes of the thermal barrier coating. Analytical studies were employed to derive a life prediction model. A review of experimental and flight service components as well as laboratory post evaluations indicates that the predominant mode of TBC failure involves thermomechanical spallation of the ceramic coating layer. This ceramic spallation involves the formation of a dominant crack in the ceramic coating parallel to and closely adjacent to the topologically complex metal ceramic interface. This mechanical failure mode clearly is influenced by thermal exposure effects as shown in experiments conducted to study thermal pre-exposure and thermal cycle-rate effects. The preliminary life prediction model developed focuses on the two major damage modes identified in the critical experiments tasks. The first of these involves a mechanical driving force, resulting from cyclic strains and stresses caused by thermally induced and externally imposed mechanical loads. The second is an environmental driving force based on experimental results, and is believed to be related to bond coat oxidation. It is also believed that the growth of this oxide scale influences the intensity of the mechanical driving force.

Life prediction of thermomechanical fatigue using total strain version of strainrange partitioning (SRP): A proposal

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saltsman, James F.; Halford, Gary R.

1988-01-01

A method is proposed (without experimental verification) for extending the total strain version of Strainrange Partitioning (TS-SRP) to predict the lives of thermomechanical fatigue (TMF) cycles. The principal feature of TS SRP is the determination of the time-temperature-waveshape dependent elastic strainrange versus life lines that are added subsequently to the classical inelastic strainrange versus life lines to form the total strainrange versus life relations. The procedure is based on a derived relation between failure and flow behavior. Failure behavior is represented by conventional SRP inelastic strainrange versus cyclic life relations, while flow behavior is captured in terms of the cyclic stress-strain response characteristics. Stress-strain response is calculated from simple equations developed from approximations to more complex cyclic constitutive models. For applications to TMF life prediction, a new testing technique, bithermal cycling, is proposed as a means for generating the inelastic strainrange versus life relations. Flow relations for use in predicting TMF lives would normally be obtained from approximations to complex thermomechanical constitutive models. Bithermal flow testing is also proposed as an alternative to thermomechanical flow testing at low strainranges where the hysteresis loop is difficult to analyze.

Ego Development in Predicting Life Satisfaction in the Aged.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Michaelson, Christina Branzel; And Others

Results of previous investigations of life satisfaction in the aged have suggested that health, socioeconomic factors, and social interaction are most strongly and consistently related to life satisfaction. However, a great deal of variance in life satisfaction remains unexplained. Men (N=19) and women (N=21) aged 65 years or older were…

Predicting Attitudes toward Press- and Speech Freedom across the U.S.A.: A Test of Climato-Economic, Parasite Stress, and Life History Theories

PubMed Central

Zhang, Jinguang; Reid, Scott A.; Xu, Jing

2015-01-01

National surveys reveal notable individual differences in U.S. citizens’ attitudes toward freedom of expression, including freedom of the press and speech. Recent theoretical developments and empirical findings suggest that ecological factors impact censorship attitudes in addition to individual difference variables (e.g., education, conservatism), but no research has compared the explanatory power of prominent ecological theories. This study tested climato-economic, parasite stress, and life history theories using four measures of attitudes toward censoring the press and offensive speech obtained from two national surveys in the U.S.A. Neither climate demands nor its interaction with state wealth—two key variables for climato-economic theory—predicted any of the four outcome measures. Interstate parasite stress significantly predicted two, with a marginally significant effect on the third, but the effects became non-significant when the analyses were stratified for race (as a control for extrinsic risks). Teenage birth rates (a proxy of human life history) significantly predicted attitudes toward press freedom during wartime, but the effect was the opposite of what life history theory predicted. While none of the three theories provided a fully successful explanation of individual differences in attitudes toward freedom of expression, parasite stress and life history theories do show potentials. Future research should continue examining the impact of these ecological factors on human psychology by further specifying the mechanisms and developing better measures for those theories. PMID:26030736

Predicting Attitudes toward Press- and Speech Freedom across the U.S.A.: A Test of Climato-Economic, Parasite Stress, and Life History Theories.

PubMed

Zhang, Jinguang; Reid, Scott A; Xu, Jing

2015-01-01

National surveys reveal notable individual differences in U.S. citizens' attitudes toward freedom of expression, including freedom of the press and speech. Recent theoretical developments and empirical findings suggest that ecological factors impact censorship attitudes in addition to individual difference variables (e.g., education, conservatism), but no research has compared the explanatory power of prominent ecological theories. This study tested climato-economic, parasite stress, and life history theories using four measures of attitudes toward censoring the press and offensive speech obtained from two national surveys in the U.S.A. Neither climate demands nor its interaction with state wealth--two key variables for climato-economic theory--predicted any of the four outcome measures. Interstate parasite stress significantly predicted two, with a marginally significant effect on the third, but the effects became non-significant when the analyses were stratified for race (as a control for extrinsic risks). Teenage birth rates (a proxy of human life history) significantly predicted attitudes toward press freedom during wartime, but the effect was the opposite of what life history theory predicted. While none of the three theories provided a fully successful explanation of individual differences in attitudes toward freedom of expression, parasite stress and life history theories do show potentials. Future research should continue examining the impact of these ecological factors on human psychology by further specifying the mechanisms and developing better measures for those theories.

Lithium-ion battery state of health monitoring and remaining useful life prediction based on support vector regression-particle filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Hancheng; Jin, Xiaoning; Lou, Yangbing; Wang, Changhong

2014-12-01

Lithium-ion batteries are used as the main power source in many electronic and electrical devices. In particular, with the growth in battery-powered electric vehicle development, the lithium-ion battery plays a critical role in the reliability of vehicle systems. In order to provide timely maintenance and replacement of battery systems, it is necessary to develop a reliable and accurate battery health diagnostic that takes a prognostic approach. Therefore, this paper focuses on two main methods to determine a battery's health: (1) Battery State-of-Health (SOH) monitoring and (2) Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction. Both of these are calculated by using a filter algorithm known as the Support Vector Regression-Particle Filter (SVR-PF). Models for battery SOH monitoring based on SVR-PF are developed with novel capacity degradation parameters introduced to determine battery health in real time. Moreover, the RUL prediction model is proposed, which is able to provide the RUL value and update the RUL probability distribution to the End-of-Life cycle. Results for both methods are presented, showing that the proposed SOH monitoring and RUL prediction methods have good performance and that the SVR-PF has better monitoring and prediction capability than the standard particle filter (PF).

Position of pelvis in the 3rd month of life predicts further motor development.

PubMed

Gajewska, Ewa; Sobieska, Magdalena; Moczko, Jerzy

2018-06-01

The aim of the study is to select elements of motor skills assessed at 3 months that provide the best predictive properties for motor development at 9 months. In all children a physiotherapeutic assessment of the quantitative and qualitative development at the age of 3 months was performed in the prone and supine positions, which was presented in previous papers as the quantitative and qualitative assessment sheet of motor development. The neurological examination at the age of 9 months was based on the Denver Development Screening Test II and the evaluation of reflexes, muscle tone (hypotony and hypertony), and symmetry. The particular elements of motor performance assessment were shown to have distinct predictive value for further motor development (as assessed at 9 months), and the pelvis position was the strongest predictive element. Irrespective of the symptomatic and anamnestic factors the inappropriate motor performance may already be detected in the 3rd month of life and is predictive for further motor development. The assessment of the motor performance should be performed in both supine and prone positions. The proper position of pelvis summarizes the proper positioning of the whole spine and ensures proper further motor development. To our knowledge, the presented motor development assessment sheet allows the earliest prediction of motor disturbances. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Characterization of Damage Accumulation in a C/SiC Composite at Elevated Temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Telesman, Jack; Verrilli, Mike; Ghosn, Louis; Kantzos, Pete

1997-01-01

This research is part of a program aimed to evaluate and demonstrate the ability of candidate CMC materials for a variety of applications in reusable launch vehicles. The life and durability of these materials in rocket and engine applications are of major concern and there is a need to develop and validate life prediction methodology. In this study, material characterization and mechanical testing was performed in order to identify the failure modes, degradation mechanisms, and progression of damage in a C/SiC composite at elevated temperatures. The motivation for this work is to provide the relevant damage information that will form the basis for the development of a physically based life prediction methodology.

Predicting Negative Life Outcomes from Early Aggressive-Disruptive Behavior Trajectories: Gender Differences in Maladaptation across Life Domains

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bradshaw, Catherine P.; Schaeffer, Cindy M.; Petras, Hanno; Ialongo, Nicholas

2010-01-01

Transactional theories of development suggest that displaying high levels of antisocial behavior early in life and persistently over time causes disruption in multiple life domains, which in turn places individuals at risk for negative life outcomes. We used longitudinal data from 1,137 primarily African American urban youth (49.1% female) to…

How rare is complex life in the Milky Way?

PubMed

Bounama, Christine; von Bloh, Werner; Franck, Siegfried

2007-10-01

An integrated Earth system model was applied to calculate the number of habitable Earth-analog planets that are likely to have developed primitive (unicellular) and complex (multicellular) life in extrasolar planetary systems. The model is based on the global carbon cycle mediated by life and driven by increasing stellar luminosity and plate tectonics. We assumed that the hypothetical primitive and complex life forms differed in their temperature limits and CO(2) tolerances. Though complex life would be more vulnerable to environmental stress, its presence would amplify weathering processes on a terrestrial planet. The model allowed us to calculate the average number of Earth-analog planets that may harbor such life by using the formation rate of Earth-like planets in the Milky Way as well as the size of a habitable zone that could support primitive and complex life forms. The number of planets predicted to bear complex life was found to be approximately 2 orders of magnitude lower than the number predicted for primitive life forms. Our model predicted a maximum abundance of such planets around 1.8 Ga ago and allowed us to calculate the average distance between potentially habitable planets in the Milky Way. If the model predictions are accurate, the future missions DARWIN (up to a probability of 65%) and TPF (up to 20%) are likely to detect at least one planet with a biosphere composed of complex life.

Quantifying Reliability - The Next Step for a Rapidly Maturing PV Industry and China's Role

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kurtz, Sarah

2015-10-14

PV customers wish to know how long their PV modules will last, but quantitatively predicting service life is difficult because of the large number of ways that a module can fail, the variability of the use environment, the cost of the testing, and the short product development time, especially when compared with the long desired lifetime. China should play a key role in developing international standards because China manufactures most of the world's PV modules. The presentation will describe the steps that need to be taken to create a service life prediction within the context of a defined bill ofmore » materials, process window and use environment. Worldwide standards for cost-effective approaches to service-life predictions will be beneficial to both PV customers and manufacturers since the consequences of premature module failure can be disastrous for both.« less

Interspecies scaling: predicting volumes, mean residence time and elimination half-life. Some suggestions.

PubMed

Mahmood, I

1998-05-01

Extrapolation of animal data to assess pharmacokinetic parameters in man is an important tool in drug development. Clearance, volume of distribution and elimination half-life are the three most frequently extrapolated pharmacokinetic parameters. Extensive work has been done to improve the predictive performance of allometric scaling for clearance. In general there is good correlation between body weight and volume, hence volume in man can be predicted with reasonable accuracy from animal data. Besides the volume of distribution in the central compartment (Vc), two other volume terms, the volume of distribution by area (Vbeta) and the volume of distribution at steady state (VdSS), are also extrapolated from animals to man. This report compares the predictive performance of allometric scaling for Vc, Vbeta and VdSS in man from animal data. The relationship between elimination half-life (t(1/2)) and body weight across species results in poor correlation, most probably because of the hybrid nature of this parameter. To predict half-life in man from animal data, an indirect method (CL=VK, where CL=clearance, V is volume and K is elimination rate constant) has been proposed. This report proposes another indirect method which uses the mean residence time (MRT). After establishing that MRT can be predicted across species, it was used to predict half-life using the equation MRT=1.44 x t(1/2). The results of the study indicate that Vc is predicted more accurately than Vbeta and VdSS in man. It should be emphasized that for first-time dosing in man, Vc is a more important pharmacokinetic parameter than Vbeta or VdSS. Furthermore, MRT can be predicted reasonably well for man and can be used for prediction of half-life.

Impact of predictive model-directed end-of-life counseling for Medicare beneficiaries.

PubMed

Hamlet, Karen S; Hobgood, Adam; Hamar, Guy Brent; Dobbs, Angela C; Rula, Elizabeth Y; Pope, James E

2010-05-01

To validate a predictive model for identifying Medicare beneficiaries who need end-of-life care planning and to determine the impact on cost and hospice care of a telephonic counseling program utilizing this predictive model in 2 Medicare Health Support (MHS) pilots. Secondary analysis of data from 2 MHS pilot programs that used a randomized controlled design. A predictive model was developed using intervention group data (N = 43,497) to identify individuals at greatest risk of death. Model output guided delivery of a telephonic intervention designed to support educated end-of-life decisions and improve end-of-life provisions. Control group participants received usual care. As a primary outcome, Medicare costs in the last 6 months of life were compared between intervention group decedents (n = 3112) and control group decedents (n = 1630). Hospice admission rates and duration of hospice care were compared as secondary measures. The predictive model was highly accurate, and more than 80% of intervention group decedents were contacted during the 12 months before death. Average Medicare costs were $1913 lower for intervention group decedents compared with control group decedents in the last 6 months of life (P = .05), for a total savings of $5.95 million. There were no significant changes in hospice admissions or mean duration of hospice care. Telephonic end-of-life counseling provided as an ancillary Medicare service, guided by a predictive model, can reach a majority of individuals needing support and can reduce costs by facilitating voluntary election of less intensive care.

Design of Oil-Lubricated Machine for Life and Reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaretsky, Erwin V.

2007-01-01

In the post-World War II era, the major technology drivers for improving the life, reliability, and performance of rolling-element bearings and gears have been the jet engine and the helicopter. By the late 1950s, most of the materials used for bearings and gears in the aerospace industry had been introduced into use. By the early 1960s, the life of most steels was increased over that experienced in the early 1940s, primarily by the introduction of vacuum degassing and vacuum melting processes in the late 1950s. The development of elastohydrodynamic (EHD) theory showed that most rolling bearings and gears have a thin film separating the contacting bodies during motion and it is that film which affects their lives. Computer programs modeling bearing and gear dynamics that incorporate probabilistic life prediction methods and EHD theory enable optimization of rotating machinery based on life and reliability. With improved manufacturing and processing, the potential improvement in bearing and gear life can be as much as 80 times that attainable in the early 1950s. The work presented summarizes the use of laboratory fatigue data for bearings and gears coupled with probabilistic life prediction and EHD theories to predict the life and reliability of a commercial turboprop gearbox. The resulting predictions are compared with field data.

Modeling the influence of genetic and environmental variation on the expression of plant life cycles across landscapes.

PubMed

Burghardt, Liana T; Metcalf, C Jessica E; Wilczek, Amity M; Schmitt, Johanna; Donohue, Kathleen

2015-02-01

Organisms develop through multiple life stages that differ in environmental tolerances. The seasonal timing, or phenology, of life-stage transitions determines the environmental conditions to which each life stage is exposed and the length of time required to complete a generation. Both environmental and genetic factors contribute to phenological variation, yet predicting their combined effect on life cycles across a geographic range remains a challenge. We linked submodels of the plasticity of individual life stages to create an integrated model that predicts life-cycle phenology in complex environments. We parameterized the model for Arabidopsis thaliana and simulated life cycles in four locations. We compared multiple "genotypes" by varying two parameters associated with natural genetic variation in phenology: seed dormancy and floral repression. The model predicted variation in life cycles across locations that qualitatively matches observed natural phenology. Seed dormancy had larger effects on life-cycle length than floral repression, and results suggest that a genetic cline in dormancy maintains a life-cycle length of 1 year across the geographic range of this species. By integrating across life stages, this approach demonstrates how genetic variation in one transition can influence subsequent transitions and the geographic distribution of life cycles more generally.

Evaluation of hypothesized adverse outcome pathway linking thyroid peroxidase inhibition to fish early life stage toxicity

EPA Science Inventory

There is an interest in developing alternatives to the fish early-life stage (FELS) test (OECD test guideline 210), for predicting adverse outcomes (e.g., impacts on growth and survival) using less resource-intensive methods. Development and characterization of adverse outcome pa...

Initial investigation of a hypothesized link between thyroid peroxidase inhibition and fish early-life stage toxicity

EPA Science Inventory

There is an interest in developing alternatives to the fish early-life stage (FELS) test (OECD test guideline 210), for predicting adverse outcomes (e.g., impacts on growth and survival) using less resource-intensive methods. Development and characterization of adverse outcome pa...

Evaluating weather factors and material response during outdoor exposure to determine accelerated test protocols for predicting service life

Treesearch

R. Sam Williams; Steven Lacher; Corey Halpin; Christopher White

2005-01-01

To develop service life prediction methods for the study of sealants, a fully instrumented weather station was installed at an outdoor test site near Madison, WI. Temperature, relative humidiy, rainfall, ultraviolet (UV) radiation at 18 wavelengths, and wind speed and direction are being continuously measured and stored. The weather data can be integrated over time to...

Methodology for designing accelerated aging tests for predicting life of photovoltaic arrays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gaines, G. B.; Thomas, R. E.; Derringer, G. C.; Kistler, C. W.; Bigg, D. M.; Carmichael, D. C.

1977-01-01

A methodology for designing aging tests in which life prediction was paramount was developed. The methodology builds upon experience with regard to aging behavior in those material classes which are expected to be utilized as encapsulant elements, viz., glasses and polymers, and upon experience with the design of aging tests. The experiences were reviewed, and results are discussed in detail.

Early stress and human behavioral development: emerging evolutionary perspectives.

PubMed

Del Giudice, M

2014-08-01

Stress experienced early in life exerts a powerful, lasting influence on development. Converging empirical findings show that stressful experiences become deeply embedded in the child's neurobiology, with an astonishing range of long-term effects on cognition, emotion, and behavior. In contrast with the prevailing view that such effects are the maladaptive outcomes of 'toxic' stress, adaptive models regard them as manifestations of evolved developmental plasticity. In this paper, I offer a brief introduction to adaptive models of early stress and human behavioral development, with emphasis on recent theoretical contributions and emerging concepts in the field. I begin by contrasting dysregulation models of early stress with their adaptive counterparts; I then introduce life history theory as a unifying framework, and review recent work on predictive adaptive responses (PARs) in human life history development. In particular, I discuss the distinction between forecasting the future state of the environment (external prediction) and forecasting the future state of the organism (internal prediction). Next, I present the adaptive calibration model, an integrative model of individual differences in stress responsivity based on life history concepts. I conclude by examining how maternal-fetal conflict may shape the physiology of prenatal stress and its adaptive and maladaptive effects on postnatal development. In total, I aim to show how theoretical work from evolutionary biology is reshaping the way we think about the role of stress in human development, and provide researchers with an up-to-date conceptual map of this fascinating and rapidly evolving field.

Life test results for the advanced very high resolution radiometer scanner

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lenz, James

1996-01-01

The following paper reports the results obtained during a 3.33-year life test on the TIROS Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer/3 (AVHRR/3) Scanner. The bearing drag torque and lubricant loss over life will be compared to predicted values developed through modeling. The condition of the lubricant at the end of the test will be described and a theory presented to explain the results obtained. The differences (if any) in the predicted and measured values of drag torque and lubricant loss will be discussed and possible reasons for these examined.

Fatigue life prediction modeling for turbine hot section materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halford, G. R.; Meyer, T. G.; Nelson, R. S.; Nissley, D. M.; Swanson, G. A.

1989-01-01

A major objective of the fatigue and fracture efforts under the NASA Hot Section Technology (HOST) program was to significantly improve the analytic life prediction tools used by the aeronautical gas turbine engine industry. This was achieved in the areas of high-temperature thermal and mechanical fatigue of bare and coated high-temperature superalloys. The cyclic crack initiation and propagation resistance of nominally isotropic polycrystalline and highly anisotropic single crystal alloys were addressed. Life prediction modeling efforts were devoted to creep-fatigue interaction, oxidation, coatings interactions, multiaxiality of stress-strain states, mean stress effects, cumulative damage, and thermomechanical fatigue. The fatigue crack initiation life models developed to date include the Cyclic Damage Accumulation (CDA) and the Total Strain Version of Strainrange Partitioning (TS-SRP) for nominally isotropic materials, and the Tensile Hysteretic Energy Model for anisotropic superalloys. A fatigue model is being developed based upon the concepts of Path-Independent Integrals (PII) for describing cyclic crack growth under complex nonlinear response at the crack tip due to thermomechanical loading conditions. A micromechanistic oxidation crack extension model was derived. The models are described and discussed.

Fatigue life prediction modeling for turbine hot section materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halford, G. R.; Meyer, T. G.; Nelson, R. S.; Nissley, D. M.; Swanson, G. A.

1988-01-01

A major objective of the fatigue and fracture efforts under the Hot Section Technology (HOST) program was to significantly improve the analytic life prediction tools used by the aeronautical gas turbine engine industry. This was achieved in the areas of high-temperature thermal and mechanical fatigue of bare and coated high-temperature superalloys. The cyclic crack initiation and propagation resistance of nominally isotropic polycrystalline and highly anisotropic single crystal alloys were addressed. Life prediction modeling efforts were devoted to creep-fatigue interaction, oxidation, coatings interactions, multiaxiality of stress-strain states, mean stress effects, cumulative damage, and thermomechanical fatigue. The fatigue crack initiation life models developed to date include the Cyclic Damage Accumulation (CDA) and the Total Strain Version of Strainrange Partitioning (TS-SRP) for nominally isotropic materials, and the Tensile Hysteretic Energy Model for anisotropic superalloys. A fatigue model is being developed based upon the concepts of Path-Independent Integrals (PII) for describing cyclic crack growth under complex nonlinear response at the crack tip due to thermomechanical loading conditions. A micromechanistic oxidation crack extension model was derived. The models are described and discussed.

Measuring Burden of Unhealthy Behaviours Using a Multivariable Predictive Approach: Life Expectancy Lost in Canada Attributable to Smoking, Alcohol, Physical Inactivity, and Diet.

PubMed

Manuel, Douglas G; Perez, Richard; Sanmartin, Claudia; Taljaard, Monica; Hennessy, Deirdre; Wilson, Kumanan; Tanuseputro, Peter; Manson, Heather; Bennett, Carol; Tuna, Meltem; Fisher, Stacey; Rosella, Laura C

2016-08-01

Behaviours such as smoking, poor diet, physical inactivity, and unhealthy alcohol consumption are leading risk factors for death. We assessed the Canadian burden attributable to these behaviours by developing, validating, and applying a multivariable predictive model for risk of all-cause death. A predictive algorithm for 5 y risk of death-the Mortality Population Risk Tool (MPoRT)-was developed and validated using the 2001 to 2008 Canadian Community Health Surveys. There were approximately 1 million person-years of follow-up and 9,900 deaths in the development and validation datasets. After validation, MPoRT was used to predict future mortality and estimate the burden of smoking, alcohol, physical inactivity, and poor diet in the presence of sociodemographic and other risk factors using the 2010 national survey (approximately 90,000 respondents). Canadian period life tables were generated using predicted risk of death from MPoRT. The burden of behavioural risk factors attributable to life expectancy was estimated using hazard ratios from the MPoRT risk model. The MPoRT 5 y mortality risk algorithms were discriminating (C-statistic: males 0.874 [95% CI: 0.867-0.881]; females 0.875 [0.868-0.882]) and well calibrated in all 58 predefined subgroups. Discrimination was maintained or improved in the validation cohorts. For the 2010 Canadian population, unhealthy behaviour attributable life expectancy lost was 6.0 years for both men and women (for men 95% CI: 5.8 to 6.3 for women 5.8 to 6.2). The Canadian life expectancy associated with health behaviour recommendations was 17.9 years (95% CI: 17.7 to 18.1) greater for people with the most favourable risk profile compared to those with the least favourable risk profile (88.2 years versus 70.3 years). Smoking, by itself, was associated with 32% to 39% of the difference in life expectancy across social groups (by education achieved or neighbourhood deprivation). Multivariable predictive algorithms such as MPoRT can be used to assess health burdens for sociodemographic groups or for small changes in population exposure to risks, thereby addressing some limitations of more commonly used measurement approaches. Unhealthy behaviours have a substantial collective burden on the life expectancy of the Canadian population.

Measuring Burden of Unhealthy Behaviours Using a Multivariable Predictive Approach: Life Expectancy Lost in Canada Attributable to Smoking, Alcohol, Physical Inactivity, and Diet

PubMed Central

Perez, Richard; Taljaard, Monica; Hennessy, Deirdre; Wilson, Kumanan; Tanuseputro, Peter; Bennett, Carol; Tuna, Meltem; Fisher, Stacey; Rosella, Laura C.

2016-01-01

Background Behaviours such as smoking, poor diet, physical inactivity, and unhealthy alcohol consumption are leading risk factors for death. We assessed the Canadian burden attributable to these behaviours by developing, validating, and applying a multivariable predictive model for risk of all-cause death. Methods A predictive algorithm for 5 y risk of death—the Mortality Population Risk Tool (MPoRT)—was developed and validated using the 2001 to 2008 Canadian Community Health Surveys. There were approximately 1 million person-years of follow-up and 9,900 deaths in the development and validation datasets. After validation, MPoRT was used to predict future mortality and estimate the burden of smoking, alcohol, physical inactivity, and poor diet in the presence of sociodemographic and other risk factors using the 2010 national survey (approximately 90,000 respondents). Canadian period life tables were generated using predicted risk of death from MPoRT. The burden of behavioural risk factors attributable to life expectancy was estimated using hazard ratios from the MPoRT risk model. Findings The MPoRT 5 y mortality risk algorithms were discriminating (C-statistic: males 0.874 [95% CI: 0.867–0.881]; females 0.875 [0.868–0.882]) and well calibrated in all 58 predefined subgroups. Discrimination was maintained or improved in the validation cohorts. For the 2010 Canadian population, unhealthy behaviour attributable life expectancy lost was 6.0 years for both men and women (for men 95% CI: 5.8 to 6.3 for women 5.8 to 6.2). The Canadian life expectancy associated with health behaviour recommendations was 17.9 years (95% CI: 17.7 to 18.1) greater for people with the most favourable risk profile compared to those with the least favourable risk profile (88.2 years versus 70.3 years). Smoking, by itself, was associated with 32% to 39% of the difference in life expectancy across social groups (by education achieved or neighbourhood deprivation). Conclusions Multivariable predictive algorithms such as MPoRT can be used to assess health burdens for sociodemographic groups or for small changes in population exposure to risks, thereby addressing some limitations of more commonly used measurement approaches. Unhealthy behaviours have a substantial collective burden on the life expectancy of the Canadian population. PMID:27529741

Comparison of Models for Ball Bearing Dynamic Capacity and Life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gupta, Pradeep K.; Oswald, Fred B.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.

2015-01-01

Generalized formulations for dynamic capacity and life of ball bearings, based on the models introduced by Lundberg and Palmgren and Zaretsky, have been developed and implemented in the bearing dynamics computer code, ADORE. Unlike the original Lundberg-Palmgren dynamic capacity equation, where the elastic properties are part of the life constant, the generalized formulations permit variation of elastic properties of the interacting materials. The newly updated Lundberg-Palmgren model allows prediction of life as a function of elastic properties. For elastic properties similar to those of AISI 52100 bearing steel, both the original and updated Lundberg-Palmgren models provide identical results. A comparison between the Lundberg-Palmgren and the Zaretsky models shows that at relatively light loads the Zaretsky model predicts a much higher life than the Lundberg-Palmgren model. As the load increases, the Zaretsky model provides a much faster drop off in life. This is because the Zaretsky model is much more sensitive to load than the Lundberg-Palmgren model. The generalized implementation where all model parameters can be varied provides an effective tool for future model validation and enhancement in bearing life prediction capabilities.

Brief summary of the evolution of high-temperature creep-fatigue life prediction models for crack initiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halford, Gary R.

1993-01-01

The evolution of high-temperature, creep-fatigue, life-prediction methods used for cyclic crack initiation is traced from inception in the late 1940's. The methods reviewed are material models as opposed to structural life prediction models. Material life models are used by both structural durability analysts and by material scientists. The latter use micromechanistic models as guidance to improve a material's crack initiation resistance. Nearly one hundred approaches and their variations have been proposed to date. This proliferation poses a problem in deciding which method is most appropriate for a given application. Approaches were identified as being combinations of thirteen different classifications. This review is intended to aid both developers and users of high-temperature fatigue life prediction methods by providing a background from which choices can be made. The need for high-temperature, fatigue-life prediction methods followed immediately on the heels of the development of large, costly, high-technology industrial and aerospace equipment immediately following the second world war. Major advances were made in the design and manufacture of high-temperature, high-pressure boilers and steam turbines, nuclear reactors, high-temperature forming dies, high-performance poppet valves, aeronautical gas turbine engines, reusable rocket engines, etc. These advances could no longer be accomplished simply by trial and error using the 'build-em and bust-em' approach. Development lead times were too great and costs too prohibitive to retain such an approach. Analytic assessments of anticipated performance, cost, and durability were introduced to cut costs and shorten lead times. The analytic tools were quite primitive at first and out of necessity evolved in parallel with hardware development. After forty years more descriptive, more accurate, and more efficient analytic tools are being developed. These include thermal-structural finite element and boundary element analyses, advanced constitutive stress-strain-temperature-time relations, and creep-fatigue-environmental models for crack initiation and propagation. The high-temperature durability methods that have evolved for calculating high-temperature fatigue crack initiation lives of structural engineering materials are addressed. Only a few of the methods were refined to the point of being directly useable in design. Recently, two of the methods were transcribed into computer software for use with personal computers.

Brief summary of the evolution of high-temperature creep-fatigue life prediction models for crack initiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halford, Gary R.

1993-10-01

The evolution of high-temperature, creep-fatigue, life-prediction methods used for cyclic crack initiation is traced from inception in the late 1940's. The methods reviewed are material models as opposed to structural life prediction models. Material life models are used by both structural durability analysts and by material scientists. The latter use micromechanistic models as guidance to improve a material's crack initiation resistance. Nearly one hundred approaches and their variations have been proposed to date. This proliferation poses a problem in deciding which method is most appropriate for a given application. Approaches were identified as being combinations of thirteen different classifications. This review is intended to aid both developers and users of high-temperature fatigue life prediction methods by providing a background from which choices can be made. The need for high-temperature, fatigue-life prediction methods followed immediately on the heels of the development of large, costly, high-technology industrial and aerospace equipment immediately following the second world war. Major advances were made in the design and manufacture of high-temperature, high-pressure boilers and steam turbines, nuclear reactors, high-temperature forming dies, high-performance poppet valves, aeronautical gas turbine engines, reusable rocket engines, etc. These advances could no longer be accomplished simply by trial and error using the 'build-em and bust-em' approach. Development lead times were too great and costs too prohibitive to retain such an approach. Analytic assessments of anticipated performance, cost, and durability were introduced to cut costs and shorten lead times. The analytic tools were quite primitive at first and out of necessity evolved in parallel with hardware development. After forty years more descriptive, more accurate, and more efficient analytic tools are being developed. These include thermal-structural finite element and boundary element analyses, advanced constitutive stress-strain-temperature-time relations, and creep-fatigue-environmental models for crack initiation and propagation. The high-temperature durability methods that have evolved for calculating high-temperature fatigue crack initiation lives of structural engineering materials are addressed. Only a few of the methods were refined to the point of being directly useable in design.

Mean stress and the exhaustion of fatigue-damage resistance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berkovits, Avraham

1989-01-01

Mean-stress effects on fatigue life are critical in isothermal and thermomechanically loaded materials and composites. Unfortunately, existing mean-stress life-prediction methods do not incorporate physical fatigue damage mechanisms. An objective is to examine the relation between mean-stress induced damage (as measured by acoustic emission) and existing life-prediction methods. Acoustic emission instrumentation has indicated that, as with static yielding, fatigue damage results from dislocation buildup and motion until dislocation saturation is reached, after which void formation and coalescence predominate. Correlation of damage processes with similar mechanisms under monotonic loading led to a reinterpretation of Goodman diagrams for 40 alloys and a modification of Morrow's formulation for life prediction under mean stresses. Further testing, using acoustic emission to monitor dislocation dynamics, can generate data for developing a more general model for fatigue under mean stress.

Prediction of Contact Fatigue Life of Alloy Cast Steel Rolls Using Back-Propagation Neural Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Huijin; Wu, Sujun; Peng, Yuncheng

2013-12-01

In this study, an artificial neural network (ANN) was employed to predict the contact fatigue life of alloy cast steel rolls (ACSRs) as a function of alloy composition, heat treatment parameters, and contact stress by utilizing the back-propagation algorithm. The ANN was trained and tested using experimental data and a very good performance of the neural network was achieved. The well-trained neural network was then adopted to predict the contact fatigue life of chromium alloyed cast steel rolls with different alloy compositions and heat treatment processes. The prediction results showed that the maximum value of contact fatigue life was obtained with quenching at 960 °C, tempering at 520 °C, and under the contact stress of 2355 MPa. The optimal alloy composition was C-0.54, Si-0.66, Mn-0.67, Cr-4.74, Mo-0.46, V-0.13, Ni-0.34, and Fe-balance (wt.%). Some explanations of the predicted results from the metallurgical viewpoints are given. A convenient and powerful method of optimizing alloy composition and heat treatment parameters of ACSRs has been developed.

Life prediction and constitutive models for engine hot section anisotropic materials program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nissley, D. M.; Meyer, T. G.; Walker, K. P.

1992-01-01

This report presents a summary of results from a 7 year program designed to develop generic constitutive and life prediction approaches and models for nickel-based single crystal gas turbine airfoils. The program was composed of a base program and an optional program. The base program addressed the high temperature coated single crystal regime above the airfoil root platform. The optional program investigated the low temperature uncoated single crystal regime below the airfoil root platform including the notched conditions of the airfoil attachment. Both base and option programs involved experimental and analytical efforts. Results from uniaxial constitutive and fatigue life experiments of coated and uncoated PWA 1480 single crystal material formed the basis for the analytical modeling effort. Four single crystal primary orientations were used in the experiments: group of zone axes (001), group of zone axes (011), group of zone axes (111), and group of zone axes (213). Specific secondary orientations were also selected for the notched experiments in the optional program. Constitutive models for an overlay coating and PWA 1480 single crystal materials were developed based on isothermal hysteresis loop data and verified using thermomechanical (TMF) hysteresis loop data. A fatigue life approach and life models were developed for TMF crack initiation of coated PWA 1480. A life model was developed for smooth and notched fatigue in the option program. Finally, computer software incorporating the overlay coating and PWA 1480 constitutive and life models was developed.

Influences of spawning timing, water temperature, and climatic warming on early life history phenology in western Alaska sockeye salmon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sparks, Morgan M.; Falke, Jeffrey A.; Quinn, Thomas P.; Adkison, Milo D.; Schindler, Daniel E.; Bartz, Krista K.; Young, Daniel B.; Westley, Peter A. H.

2018-01-01

We applied an empirical model to predict hatching and emergence timing for 25 western Alaska sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) populations in four lake-nursery systems to explore current patterns and potential responses of early life history phenology to warming water temperatures. Given experienced temperature regimes during development, we predicted hatching to occur in as few as 58 d to as many as 260 d depending on spawning timing and temperature. For a focal lake spawning population, our climate-lake temperature model predicted a water temperature increase of 0.7 to 1.4 °C from 2015 to 2099 during the incubation period, which translated to a 16 d to 30 d earlier hatching timing. The most extreme scenarios of warming advanced development by approximately a week earlier than historical minima and thus climatic warming may lead to only modest shifts in phenology during the early life history stage of this population. The marked variation in the predicted timing of hatching and emergence among populations in close proximity on the landscape may serve to buffer this metapopulation from climate change.

Intergenerational Consequences: Women's Experiences of Discrimination in Pregnancy Predict Infant Social-Emotional Development at 6 Months and 1 Year.

PubMed

Rosenthal, Lisa; Earnshaw, Valerie A; Moore, Joan M; Ferguson, Darrah N; Lewis, Tené T; Reid, Allecia E; Lewis, Jessica B; Stasko, Emily C; Tobin, Jonathan N; Ickovics, Jeannette R

2018-04-01

Racial/ethnic and socioeconomic disparities in infant development in the United States have lifelong consequences. Discrimination predicts poorer health and academic outcomes. This study explored for the first time intergenerational consequences of women's experiences of discrimination reported during pregnancy for their infants' social-emotional development in the first year of life. Data come from a longitudinal study with predominantly Black and Latina, socioeconomically disadvantaged, urban young women (N = 704, Mage = 18.53) across pregnancy through 1 year postpartum. Women were recruited from community hospitals and health centers in a Northeastern US city. Linear regression analyses examined whether women's experiences of everyday discrimination reported during pregnancy predicted social-emotional development outcomes among their infants at 6 months and 1 year of age, controlling for potentially confounding medical and sociodemographic factors. Path analyses tested if pregnancy distress, anxiety, or depressive symptoms mediated significant associations. Everyday discrimination reported during pregnancy prospectively predicted greater inhibition/separation problems and greater negative emotionality, but did not predict attention skills or positive emotionality, at 6 months and 1 year. Depressive symptoms mediated the association of discrimination with negative emotionality at 6 months, and pregnancy distress, anxiety, and depressive symptoms mediated the association of discrimination with negative emotionality at 1 year. Findings support that there are intergenerational consequences of discrimination, extending past findings to infant social-emotional development outcomes in the first year of life. It may be important to address discrimination before and during pregnancy and enhance support to mothers and infants exposed to discrimination to promote health equity across the life span.

Predicting risk for childhood asthma by pre-pregnancy, perinatal, and postnatal factors.

PubMed

Wen, Hui-Ju; Chiang, Tung-Liang; Lin, Shio-Jean; Guo, Yue Leon

2015-05-01

Symptoms of atopic disease start early in human life. Predicting risk for childhood asthma by early-life exposure would contribute to disease prevention. A birth cohort study was conducted to investigate early-life risk factors for childhood asthma and to develop a predictive model for the development of asthma. National representative samples of newborn babies were obtained by multistage stratified systematic sampling from the 2005 Taiwan Birth Registry. Information on potential risk factors and children's health was collected by home interview when babies were 6 months old and 5 yr old, respectively. Backward stepwise regression analysis was used to identify the risk factors of childhood asthma for predictive models that were used to calculate the probability of childhood asthma. A total of 19,192 children completed the study satisfactorily. Physician-diagnosed asthma was reported in 6.6% of 5-yr-old children. Pre-pregnancy factors (parental atopy and socioeconomic status), perinatal factors (place of residence, exposure to indoor mold and painting/renovations during pregnancy), and postnatal factors (maternal postpartum depression and the presence of atopic dermatitis before 6 months of age) were chosen for the predictive models, and the highest predicted probability of asthma in 5-yr-old children was 68.1% in boys and 78.1% in girls; the lowest probability in boys and girls was 4.1% and 3.2%, respectively. This investigation provides a technique for predicting risk of childhood asthma that can be used to developing a preventive strategy against asthma. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Damage Precursor Investigation of Fiber-Reinforced Composite Materials Under Fatigue Loads

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-01

19.21, 215713. Thostenson, E. T.; Chou, T.‐W. Carbon Nanotube Networks: Sensing of Distributed Strain and Damage for Life Prediction and Self Healing ...composite structural life and the goal of the proposed research program to develop self -responsive engineered composites. Over 80%‒90% of the life of a...composite material. It is also envisaged to investigate and develop self -responsive engineered composite materials that provide an accurate health

Thermal barrier coating life prediction model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hillery, R. V.; Pilsner, B. H.; Cook, T. S.; Kim, K. S.

1986-01-01

This is the second annual report of the first 3-year phase of a 2-phase, 5-year program. The objectives of the first phase are to determine the predominant modes of degradation of a plasma sprayed thermal barrier coating system and to develop and verify life prediction models accounting for these degradation modes. The primary TBC system consists of an air plasma sprayed ZrO-Y2O3 top coat, a low pressure plasma sprayed NiCrAlY bond coat, and a Rene' 80 substrate. Task I was to evaluate TBC failure mechanisms. Both bond coat oxidation and bond coat creep have been identified as contributors to TBC failure. Key property determinations have also been made for the bond coat and the top coat, including tensile strength, Poisson's ratio, dynamic modulus, and coefficient of thermal expansion. Task II is to develop TBC life prediction models for the predominant failure modes. These models will be developed based on the results of thermmechanical experiments and finite element analysis. The thermomechanical experiments have been defined and testing initiated. Finite element models have also been developed to handle TBCs and are being utilized to evaluate different TBC failure regimes.

Predictive Service Life Tests for Roofing Membranes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bailey, David M.; Cash, Carl G.; Davies, Arthur G.

2002-09-01

The average service life of roofing membranes used in low-slope applications on U.S. Army buildings is estimated to be considerably shorter than the industry-presumed 20-year design life, even when installers carefully adhere to the latest guide specifications. This problem is due in large part to market-driven product development cycles, which do not include time for long-term field testing. To reduce delivery costs, contractors may provide untested, interior membranes in place of ones proven satisfactory in long-term service. Federal procurement regulations require that roofing systems and components be selected according to desired properties and generic type, not brand name. The problem is that a material certified to have satisfactory properties at installation time will not necessarily retain those properties in service. The overall objective of this research is to develop a testing program that can be executed in a matter of weeks to adequately predict a membrane's long-term performance in service. This report details accelerated aging tests of 12 popular membrane materials in the laboratory, and describes outdoor experiment stations set up for long-term exposure tests of those same membranes. The laboratory results will later be correlated with the outdoor test results to develop performance models and predictive service life tests.

A comparison of life prediction methodologies for titanium matrix composites subjected to thermomechanical fatigue

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Calcaterra, J.R.; Johnson, W.S.; Neu, R.W.

1997-12-31

Several methodologies have been developed to predict the lives of titanium matrix composites (TMCs) subjected to thermomechanical fatigue (TMF). This paper reviews and compares five life prediction models developed at NASA-LaRC. Wright Laboratories, based on a dingle parameter, the fiber stress in the load-carrying, or 0{degree}, direction. The two other models, both developed at Wright Labs. are multi-parameter models. These can account for long-term damage, which is beyond the scope of the single-parameter models, but this benefit is offset by the additional complexity of the methodologies. Each of the methodologies was used to model data generated at NASA-LeRC. Wright Labs.more » and Georgia Tech for the SCS-6/Timetal 21-S material system. VISCOPLY, a micromechanical stress analysis code, was used to determine the constituent stress state for each test and was used for each model to maintain consistency. The predictive capabilities of the models are compared, and the ability of each model to accurately predict the responses of tests dominated by differing damage mechanisms is addressed.« less

NDE: A key to engine rotor life prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Doherty, J. E.

1977-01-01

A key ingredient in the establishment of safe life times for critical components is the means of reliably detecting flaws which may potentially exist. Currently used nondestructive evaluation procedures are successful in detecting life limiting defects; however, the development of automated and computer aided NDE technology permits even greater assurance of flight safety.

NASA Subsonic Rotary Wing Project - Structures and Materials Discipline

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halbig, Michael C.; Johnson, Susan M.

2008-01-01

The Structures & Materials Discipline within the NASA Subsonic Rotary Wing Project is focused on developing rotorcraft technologies. The technologies being developed are within the task areas of: 5.1.1 Life Prediction Methods for Engine Structures & Components 5.1.2 Erosion Resistant Coatings for Improved Turbine Blade Life 5.2.1 Crashworthiness 5.2.2 Methods for Prediction of Fatigue Damage & Self Healing 5.3.1 Propulsion High Temperature Materials 5.3.2 Lightweight Structures and Noise Integration The presentation will discuss rotorcraft specific technical challenges and needs as well as details of the work being conducted in the six task areas.

With Agriculture Knowledge and Wisdom (Me Ka Ike Ame Ka Na'auao). Proceedings of the Annual Western Region Agricultural Education Research Meeting (Honolulu, Hawaii, April 13-16, 1994). Volume XIII, Number 1.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cox, David E., Ed.; Walton, Frank C., Ed.

This proceedings includes the following papers: "Examining Learning Styles of Students in College of Agriculture" (Torres, Cano); "Developing a Scale to Research and Evaluate Youth Leadership Life Skills Development" (Seevers, Dormody, Clason); "Predicting Youth Leadership Life Skills Development among FFA (Future Farmers…

Development of a clinical prediction model to calculate patient life expectancy: the measure of actuarial life expectancy (MALE).

PubMed

Clarke, M G; Kennedy, K P; MacDonagh, R P

2009-01-01

To develop a clinical prediction model enabling the calculation of an individual patient's life expectancy (LE) and survival probability based on age, sex, and comorbidity for use in the joint decision-making process regarding medical treatment. A computer software program was developed with a team of 3 clinicians, 2 professional actuaries, and 2 professional computer programmers. This incorporated statistical spreadsheet and database access design methods. Data sources included life insurance industry actuarial rating factor tables (public and private domain), Government Actuary Department UK life tables, professional actuarial sources, and evidence-based medical literature. The main outcome measures were numerical and graphical display of comorbidity-adjusted LE; 5-, 10-, and 15-year survival probability; in addition to generic UK population LE. Nineteen medical conditions, which impacted significantly on LE in actuarial terms and were commonly encountered in clinical practice, were incorporated in the final model. Numerical and graphical representations of statistical predictions of LE and survival probability were successfully generated for patients with either no comorbidity or a combination of the 19 medical conditions included. Validation and testing, including actuarial peer review, confirmed consistency with the data sources utilized. The evidence-based actuarial data utilized in this computer program design represent a valuable resource for use in the clinical decision-making process, where an accurate objective assessment of patient LE can so often make the difference between patients being offered or denied medical and surgical treatment. Ongoing development to incorporate additional comorbidities and enable Web-based access will enhance its use further.

Creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moreno, Vito; Nissley, David; Lin, Li-Sen Jim

1985-01-01

The first two years of a two-phase program aimed at improving the high temperature crack initiation life prediction technology for gas turbine hot section components are discussed. In Phase 1 (baseline) effort, low cycle fatigue (LCF) models, using a data base generated for a cast nickel base gas turbine hot section alloy (B1900+Hf), were evaluated for their ability to predict the crack initiation life for relevant creep-fatigue loading conditions and to define data required for determination of model constants. The variables included strain range and rate, mean strain, strain hold times and temperature. None of the models predicted all of the life trends within reasonable data requirements. A Cycle Damage Accumulation (CDA) was therefore developed which follows an exhaustion of material ductility approach. Material ductility is estimated based on observed similarities of deformation structure between fatigue, tensile and creep tests. The cycle damage function is based on total strain range, maximum stress and stress amplitude and includes both time independent and time dependent components. The CDA model accurately predicts all of the trends in creep-fatigue life with loading conditions. In addition, all of the CDA model constants are determinable from rapid cycle, fully reversed fatigue tests and monotonic tensile and/or creep data.

An analysis of nickel cadmium batteries

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turner, J. B., Jr.

1982-01-01

Temperature effects, reconditioning, divergencies, capacity, charge rates, depth of discharge, and cell matching and their effects on battery life are discussed. The development of a practical strategy for predicting battery life by subjecting cells to simulated cyclic operation is also addressed.

Personal spiritual values and quality of life: evidence from Chinese college students.

PubMed

Zhang, Kaili Chen; Hui, C Harry; Lam, Jasmine; Lau, Esther Yuet Ying; Cheung, Shu-Fai; Mok, Doris Shui Ying

2014-08-01

Values are guiding principles in our life. While some studies found spiritual values to be "healthier," Sagiv and Schwartz (Eur J Soc Psychol 30:177-198, 2000) showed that people holding non-spiritual values were higher on affective well-being. We examined the predictive power of these two types of values with a longitudinal data set collected from Chinese students mainly in Hong Kong. Structural equation modeling revealed that spiritual values (as well as family income) positively predicted quality of life a year later. Non-spiritual, self-enhancement values, did not show any association. Results suggest that developing spiritual values may promote well-being through enabling individuals to find meaning and purpose in life.

Wheel life prediction model - an alternative to the FASTSIM algorithm for RCF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hossein-Nia, Saeed; Sichani, Matin Sh.; Stichel, Sebastian; Casanueva, Carlos

2018-07-01

In this article, a wheel life prediction model considering wear and rolling contact fatigue (RCF) is developed and applied to a heavy-haul locomotive. For wear calculations, a methodology based on Archard's wear calculation theory is used. The simulated wear depth is compared with profile measurements within 100,000 km. For RCF, a shakedown-based theory is applied locally, using the FaStrip algorithm to estimate the tangential stresses instead of FASTSIM. The differences between the two algorithms on damage prediction models are studied. The running distance between the two reprofiling due to RCF is estimated based on a Wöhler-like relationship developed from laboratory test results from the literature and the Palmgren-Miner rule. The simulated crack locations and their angles are compared with a five-year field study. Calculations to study the effects of electro-dynamic braking, track gauge, harder wheel material and the increase of axle load on the wheel life are also carried out.

Early life mortality and height in Indian states

PubMed Central

Coffey, Diane

2014-01-01

Height is a marker for health, cognitive ability and economic productivity. Recent research on the determinants of height suggests that postneonatal mortality predicts height because it is a measure of the early life disease environment to which a cohort is exposed. This article advances the literature on the determinants of height by examining the role of early life mortality, including neonatal mortality, in India, a large developing country with a very short population. It uses state level variation in neonatal mortality, postneonatal mortality, and pre-adult mortality to predict the heights of adults born between 1970 and 1983, and neonatal and postneonatal mortality to predict the heights of children born between 1995 and 2005. In contrast to what is found in the literature on developed countries, I find that state level variation in neonatal mortality is a strong predictor of adult and child heights. This may be due to state level variation in, and overall poor levels of, pre-natal nutrition in India. PMID:25499239

Rolling-Bearing Service Life Based on Probable Cause for Removal: A Tutorial

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaretsky, Erwin V.; Branzai, Emanuel V.

2017-01-01

In 1947 and 1952, Gustaf Lundberg and Arvid Palmgren developed what is now referred to as the Lundberg-Palmgren Model for Rolling Bearing Life Prediction based on classical rolling-element fatigue. Today, bearing fatigue probably accounts for less than 5 percent of bearings removed from service for cause. A bearing service life prediction methodology and tutorial indexed to eight probable causes for bearing removal, including fatigue, are presented, which incorporate strict series reliability; Weibull statistical analysis; available published field data from the Naval Air Rework Facility; and 224,000 rolling-element bearings removed for rework from commercial aircraft engines.

Thermal barrier coating life prediction model development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Demasi, J. T.; Sheffler, K. D.

1986-01-01

The objective of this program is to establish a methodology to predict Thermal Barrier Coating (TBC) life on gas turbine engine components. The approach involves experimental life measurement coupled with analytical modeling of relevant degradation modes. The coating being studied is a flight qualified two layer system, designated PWA 264, consisting of a nominal ten mil layer of seven percent yttria partially stabilized zirconia plasma deposited over a nominal five mil layer of low pressure plasma deposited NiCoCrAlY. Thermal barrier coating degradation modes being investigated include: thermomechanical fatigue, oxidation, erosion, hot corrosion, and foreign object damage.

Integration of NASA-Developed Lifing Technology for PM Alloys into DARWIN (registered trademark)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McClung, R. Craig; Enright, Michael P.; Liang, Wuwei

2011-01-01

In recent years, Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) and NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) have worked independently on the development of probabilistic life prediction methods for materials used in gas turbine engine rotors. The two organizations have addressed different but complementary technical challenges. This report summarizes a brief investigation into the current status of the relevant technology at SwRI and GRC with a view towards a future integration of methods and models developed by GRC for probabilistic lifing of powder metallurgy (P/M) nickel turbine rotor alloys into the DARWIN (Darwin Corporation) software developed by SwRI.

Low-cycle thermal fatigue

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halford, G. R.

1986-01-01

A state-of-the-art review is presented of the field of thermal fatigue. Following a brief historical review, the concept is developed that thermal fatigue can be viewed as processes of unbalanced deformation and cracking. The unbalances refer to dissimilar mechanisms occurring in opposing halves of thermal fatigue loading and unloading cycles. Extensive data summaries are presented and results are interpreted in terms of the unbalanced processes involved. Both crack initiation and crack propagation results are summarized. Testing techniques are reviewed, and considerable discussion is given to a technique for thermal fatigue simulation, known as the bithermal fatigue test. Attention is given to the use of isothermal life prediction methods for the prediction of thermal fatigue lives. Shortcomings of isothermally-based life prediction methods are pointed out. Several examples of analyses and thermal fatigue life predictions of high technology structural components are presented. Finally, numerous dos and don'ts relative to design against thermal fatigue are presented.

L70 life prediction for solid state lighting using Kalman Filter and Extended Kalman Filter based models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lall, Pradeep; Wei, Junchao; Davis, Lynn

2013-08-08

Solid-state lighting (SSL) luminaires containing light emitting diodes (LEDs) have the potential of seeing excessive temperatures when being transported across country or being stored in non-climate controlled warehouses. They are also being used in outdoor applications in desert environments that see little or no humidity but will experience extremely high temperatures during the day. This makes it important to increase our understanding of what effects high temperature exposure for a prolonged period of time will have on the usability and survivability of these devices. Traditional light sources “burn out” at end-of-life. For an incandescent bulb, the lamp life is definedmore » by B50 life. However, the LEDs have no filament to “burn”. The LEDs continually degrade and the light output decreases eventually below useful levels causing failure. Presently, the TM-21 test standard is used to predict the L70 life of LEDs from LM-80 test data. Several failure mechanisms may be active in a LED at a single time causing lumen depreciation. The underlying TM-21 Model may not capture the failure physics in presence of multiple failure mechanisms. Correlation of lumen maintenance with underlying physics of degradation at system-level is needed. In this paper, Kalman Filter (KF) and Extended Kalman Filters (EKF) have been used to develop a 70-percent Lumen Maintenance Life Prediction Model for LEDs used in SSL luminaires. Ten-thousand hour LM-80 test data for various LEDs have been used for model development. System state at each future time has been computed based on the state space at preceding time step, system dynamics matrix, control vector, control matrix, measurement matrix, measured vector, process noise and measurement noise. The future state of the lumen depreciation has been estimated based on a second order Kalman Filter model and a Bayesian Framework. The measured state variable has been related to the underlying damage using physics-based models. Life prediction of L70 life for the LEDs used in SSL luminaires from KF and EKF based models have been compared with the TM-21 model predictions and experimental data.« less

Outbrief - Long Life Rocket Engine Panel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quinn, Jason Eugene

2004-01-01

This white paper is an overview of the JANNAF Long Life Rocket Engine (LLRE) Panel results from the last several years of activity. The LLRE Panel has met over the last several years in order to develop an approach for the development of long life rocket engines. Membership for this panel was drawn from a diverse set of the groups currently working on rocket engines (Le. government labs, both large and small companies and university members). The LLRE Panel was formed in order to determine the best way to enable the design of rocket engine systems that have life capability greater than 500 cycles while meeting or exceeding current performance levels (Specific Impulse and Thrust/Weight) with a 1/1,OOO,OOO likelihood of vehicle loss due to rocket system failure. After several meetings and much independent work the panel reached a consensus opinion that the primary issues preventing LLRE are a lack of: physics based life prediction, combined loads prediction, understanding of material microphysics, cost effective system level testing. and the inclusion of fabrication process effects into physics based models. With the expected level of funding devoted to LLRE development, the panel recommended that fundamental research efforts focused on these five areas be emphasized.

Toward more environmentally resistant gas turbines: Progress in NASA-Lewis programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lowell, C. E.; Grisaffe, S. J.; Levine, S. R.

1976-01-01

A wide range of programs are being conducted for improving the environmental resistance to oxidation and hot corrosion of gas turbine and power system materials. They range from fundamental efforts to delineate attack mechanisms, allow attack modeling and permit life prediction, to more applied efforts to develop potentially more resistant alloys and coatings. Oxidation life prediction efforts have resulted in a computer program which provides an initial method for predicting long time metal loss using short time oxidation data by means of a paralinear attack model. Efforts in alloy development have centered on oxide-dispersion strengthened alloys based on the Ni-Cr-Al system. Compositions have been identified which are compromises between oxidation and thermal fatigue resistance. Fundamental studies of hot corrosion mechanisms include thermodynamic studies of sodium sulfate formation during turbine combustion. Information concerning species formed during the vaporization of Na2SO4 has been developed using high temperature mass spectrometry.

Damage prognosis: the future of structural health monitoring.

PubMed

Farrar, Charles R; Lieven, Nick A J

2007-02-15

This paper concludes the theme issue on structural health monitoring (SHM) by discussing the concept of damage prognosis (DP). DP attempts to forecast system performance by assessing the current damage state of the system (i.e. SHM), estimating the future loading environments for that system, and predicting through simulation and past experience the remaining useful life of the system. The successful development of a DP capability will require the further development and integration of many technology areas including both measurement/processing/telemetry hardware and a variety of deterministic and probabilistic predictive modelling capabilities, as well as the ability to quantify the uncertainty in these predictions. The multidisciplinary and challenging nature of the DP problem, its current embryonic state of development, and its tremendous potential for life-safety and economic benefits qualify DP as a 'grand challenge' problem for engineers in the twenty-first century.

Do peritraumatic emotions differentially predict PTSD symptom clusters? Initial evidence for emotion specificity.

PubMed

Dewey, Daniel; Schuldberg, David; Madathil, Renee

2014-08-01

This study investigated whether specific peritraumatic emotions differentially predict PTSD symptom clusters in individuals who have experienced stressful life events. Hypotheses were developed based on the SPAARS model of PTSD. It was predicted that the peritraumatic emotions of anger, disgust, guilt, and fear would significantly predict re-experiencing and avoidance symptoms, while only fear would predict hyperarousal. Undergraduate students (N = 144) participated in this study by completing a packet of self-report questionnaires. Multiple regression analyses were conducted with PCL-S symptom cluster scores as dependent variables and peritraumatic fear, guilt, anger, shame, and disgust as predictor variables. As hypothesized, peritraumatic anger, guilt, and fear all significantly predicted re-experiencing. However, only fear predicted avoidance, and anger significantly predicted hyperarousal. Results are discussed in relation to the theoretical role of emotions in the etiology of PTSD following the experience of a stressful life event.

A comparative study of kinetic and connectionist modeling for shelf-life prediction of Basundi mix.

PubMed

Ruhil, A P; Singh, R R B; Jain, D K; Patel, A A; Patil, G R

2011-04-01

A ready-to-reconstitute formulation of Basundi, a popular Indian dairy dessert was subjected to storage at various temperatures (10, 25 and 40 °C) and deteriorative changes in the Basundi mix were monitored using quality indices like pH, hydroxyl methyl furfural (HMF), bulk density (BD) and insolubility index (II). The multiple regression equations and the Arrhenius functions that describe the parameters' dependence on temperature for the four physico-chemical parameters were integrated to develop mathematical models for predicting sensory quality of Basundi mix. Connectionist model using multilayer feed forward neural network with back propagation algorithm was also developed for predicting the storage life of the product employing artificial neural network (ANN) tool box of MATLAB software. The quality indices served as the input parameters whereas the output parameters were the sensorily evaluated flavour and total sensory score. A total of 140 observations were used and the prediction performance was judged on the basis of per cent root mean square error. The results obtained from the two approaches were compared. Relatively lower magnitudes of percent root mean square error for both the sensory parameters indicated that the connectionist models were better fitted than kinetic models for predicting storage life.

Development of Testing Methodologies for the Mechanical Properties of MEMS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ekwaro-Osire, Stephen

2003-01-01

This effort is to investigate and design testing strategies to determine the mechanical properties of MicroElectroMechanical Systems (MEMS) as well as investigate the development of a MEMS Probabilistic Design Methodology (PDM). One item of potential interest is the design of a test for the Weibull size effect in pressure membranes. The Weibull size effect is a consequence of a stochastic strength response predicted from the Weibull distribution. Confirming that MEMS strength is controlled by the Weibull distribution will enable the development of a probabilistic design methodology for MEMS - similar to the GRC developed CARES/Life program for bulk ceramics. However, the primary area of investigation will most likely be analysis and modeling of material interfaces for strength as well as developing a strategy to handle stress singularities at sharp corners, filets, and material interfaces. This will be a continuation of the previous years work. The ultimate objective of this effort is to further develop and verify the ability of the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life (CARES/Life) code to predict the time-dependent reliability of MEMS structures subjected to multiple transient loads.

The Genetics of Success: How Single-Nucleotide Polymorphisms Associated With Educational Attainment Relate to Life-Course Development.

PubMed

Belsky, Daniel W; Moffitt, Terrie E; Corcoran, David L; Domingue, Benjamin; Harrington, HonaLee; Hogan, Sean; Houts, Renate; Ramrakha, Sandhya; Sugden, Karen; Williams, Benjamin S; Poulton, Richie; Caspi, Avshalom

2016-07-01

A previous genome-wide association study (GWAS) of more than 100,000 individuals identified molecular-genetic predictors of educational attainment. We undertook in-depth life-course investigation of the polygenic score derived from this GWAS using the four-decade Dunedin Study (N = 918). There were five main findings. First, polygenic scores predicted adult economic outcomes even after accounting for educational attainments. Second, genes and environments were correlated: Children with higher polygenic scores were born into better-off homes. Third, children's polygenic scores predicted their adult outcomes even when analyses accounted for their social-class origins; social-mobility analysis showed that children with higher polygenic scores were more upwardly mobile than children with lower scores. Fourth, polygenic scores predicted behavior across the life course, from early acquisition of speech and reading skills through geographic mobility and mate choice and on to financial planning for retirement. Fifth, polygenic-score associations were mediated by psychological characteristics, including intelligence, self-control, and interpersonal skill. Effect sizes were small. Factors connecting DNA sequence with life outcomes may provide targets for interventions to promote population-wide positive development. © The Author(s) 2016.

Does Individual Secularism Promote Life Satisfaction? The Moderating Role of Societal Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Li, Liman Man Wai; Bond, Michael H.

2010-01-01

This study was designed to examine the link between values and life satisfaction, examining the role of culture in this process. Secularism was found to predict life satisfaction scores at a small but statistically very significant level in persons from all nations participating in all four waves of the World Values Survey. The direction and…

A mechanics framework for a progressive failure methodology for laminated composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harris, Charles E.; Allen, David H.; Lo, David C.

1989-01-01

A laminate strength and life prediction methodology has been postulated for laminated composites which accounts for the progressive development of microstructural damage to structural failure. A damage dependent constitutive model predicts the stress redistribution in an average sense that accompanies damage development in laminates. Each mode of microstructural damage is represented by a second-order tensor valued internal state variable which is a strain like quantity. The mechanics framework together with the global-local strategy for predicting laminate strength and life is presented in the paper. The kinematic effects of damage are represented by effective engineering moduli in the global analysis and the results of the global analysis provide the boundary conditions for the local ply level stress analysis. Damage evolution laws are based on experimental results.

Generation of Finite Life Distributional Goodman Diagrams for Reliability Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kececioglu, D.; Guerrieri, W. N.

1971-01-01

The methodology of developing finite life distributional Goodman diagrams and surfaces is described for presenting allowable combinations of alternating stress and mean stress to the design engineer. The combined stress condition is that of an alternating bending stress and a constant shear stress. The finite life Goodman diagrams and surfaces are created from strength distributions developed at various ratios of alternating to mean stress at particular cycle life values. The conclusions indicate that the Von Mises-Hencky ellipse, for cycle life values above 1000 cycles, is an adequate model of the finite life Goodman diagram. In addition, suggestions are made which reduce the number of experimental data points required in a fatigue data acquisition program.

Accurate and dynamic predictive model for better prediction in medicine and healthcare.

PubMed

Alanazi, H O; Abdullah, A H; Qureshi, K N; Ismail, A S

2018-05-01

Information and communication technologies (ICTs) have changed the trend into new integrated operations and methods in all fields of life. The health sector has also adopted new technologies to improve the systems and provide better services to customers. Predictive models in health care are also influenced from new technologies to predict the different disease outcomes. However, still, existing predictive models have suffered from some limitations in terms of predictive outcomes performance. In order to improve predictive model performance, this paper proposed a predictive model by classifying the disease predictions into different categories. To achieve this model performance, this paper uses traumatic brain injury (TBI) datasets. TBI is one of the serious diseases worldwide and needs more attention due to its seriousness and serious impacts on human life. The proposed predictive model improves the predictive performance of TBI. The TBI data set is developed and approved by neurologists to set its features. The experiment results show that the proposed model has achieved significant results including accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity.

Life prediction modeling based on cyclic damage accumulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nelson, Richard S.

1988-01-01

A high temperature, low cycle fatigue life prediction method was developed. This method, Cyclic Damage Accumulation (CDA), was developed for use in predicting the crack initiation lifetime of gas turbine engine materials, where initiation was defined as a 0.030 inch surface length crack. A principal engineering feature of the CDA method is the minimum data base required for implementation. Model constants can be evaluated through a few simple specimen tests such as monotonic loading and rapic cycle fatigue. The method was expanded to account for the effects on creep-fatigue life of complex loadings such as thermomechanical fatigue, hold periods, waveshapes, mean stresses, multiaxiality, cumulative damage, coatings, and environmental attack. A significant data base was generated on the behavior of the cast nickel-base superalloy B1900+Hf, including hundreds of specimen tests under such loading conditions. This information is being used to refine and extend the CDA life prediction model, which is now nearing completion. The model is also being verified using additional specimen tests on wrought INCO 718, and the final version of the model is expected to be adaptable to most any high-temperature alloy. The model is currently available in the form of equations and related constants. A proposed contract addition will make the model available in the near future in the form of a computer code to potential users.

A human life-stage physiologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic model for chlorpyrifos: development and validation.

PubMed

Smith, Jordan Ned; Hinderliter, Paul M; Timchalk, Charles; Bartels, Michael J; Poet, Torka S

2014-08-01

Sensitivity to some chemicals in animals and humans are known to vary with age. Age-related changes in sensitivity to chlorpyrifos have been reported in animal models. A life-stage physiologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PBPK/PD) model was developed to predict disposition of chlorpyrifos and its metabolites, chlorpyrifos-oxon (the ultimate toxicant) and 3,5,6-trichloro-2-pyridinol (TCPy), as well as B-esterase inhibition by chlorpyrifos-oxon in humans. In this model, previously measured age-dependent metabolism of chlorpyrifos and chlorpyrifos-oxon were integrated into age-related descriptions of human anatomy and physiology. The life-stage PBPK/PD model was calibrated and tested against controlled adult human exposure studies. Simulations suggest age-dependent pharmacokinetics and response may exist. At oral doses ⩾0.6mg/kg of chlorpyrifos (100- to 1000-fold higher than environmental exposure levels), 6months old children are predicted to have higher levels of chlorpyrifos-oxon in blood and higher levels of red blood cell cholinesterase inhibition compared to adults from equivalent doses. At lower doses more relevant to environmental exposures, simulations predict that adults will have slightly higher levels of chlorpyrifos-oxon in blood and greater cholinesterase inhibition. This model provides a computational framework for age-comparative simulations that can be utilized to predict chlorpyrifos disposition and biological response over various postnatal life stages. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Life Extending Control. [mechanical fatigue in reusable rocket engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lorenzo, Carl F.; Merrill, Walter C.

1991-01-01

The concept of Life Extending Control is defined. Life is defined in terms of mechanical fatigue life. A brief description is given of the current approach to life prediction using a local, cyclic, stress-strain approach for a critical system component. An alternative approach to life prediction based on a continuous functional relationship to component performance is proposed. Based on cyclic life prediction, an approach to life extending control, called the Life Management Approach, is proposed. A second approach, also based on cyclic life prediction, called the implicit approach, is presented. Assuming the existence of the alternative functional life prediction approach, two additional concepts for Life Extending Control are presented.

Life extending control: A concept paper

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lorenzo, Carl F.; Merrill, Walter C.

1991-01-01

The concept of Life Extending Control is defined. Life is defined in terms of mechanical fatigue life. A brief description is given of the current approach to life prediction using a local, cyclic, stress-strain approach for a critical system component. An alternative approach to life prediction based on a continuous functional relationship to component performance is proposed.Base on cyclic life prediction an approach to Life Extending Control, called the Life Management Approach is proposed. A second approach, also based on cyclic life prediction, called the Implicit Approach, is presented. Assuming the existence of the alternative functional life prediction approach, two additional concepts for Life Extending Control are presented.

ADHD Symptoms in Middle Adolescence Predict Exposure to Person-Related Life Stressors in Late Adolescence in 5-HTTLPR S-allele Homozygotes.

PubMed

Brinksma, Djûke M; Hoekstra, Pieter J; de Bildt, Annelies; Buitelaar, Jan K; van den Hoofdakker, Barbara J; Hartman, Catharina A; Dietrich, Andrea

2017-12-19

Literature suggests that life stressors predict attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) symptoms and that this relationship is moderated by the serotonin transporter polymorphism (5-HTTLPR). It is less clear whether, on reverse, ADHD symptoms may influence the risk of exposure to life stressors. Furthermore, the role of life stressors may vary across development depending on the type of life stressor. We used threewave longitudinal data of 1,306 adolescents from the general population and clinicreferred cohort of the TRacking Adolescents' Individual Lives Survey. The 5-HTTLPR genotype (SS, LS, LL), parent-reported ADHD symptoms at three time points (T1: Mage = 11.2; T2: Mage = 13.5; T3: Mage = 16.2 years), and the number of personrelated ('dependent') and environment-related ('independent') life stressors occurring between measurements (T1-T2, T2-T3) were assessed. Using path analyses, we examined bidirectional relations between exposure to these life stressors and ADHD symptoms between the separate waves moderated by 5-HTTLPR status. Exposure to life stressors did not predict ADHD symptoms. Rather, we found that in 5-HTTLPR Sallele homozygotes, ADHD symptoms in middle adolescence (T2) predicted exposure to the number of person-related life stressors later in adolescence (T2-T3, p = 0.001). There was no relation with environment-related life stressors. Our study suggests that S-allele homozygotes with higher levels of ADHD symptoms in middle adolescence are more vulnerable to becoming exposed to person-related ('dependent') life stressors in late adolescence. Findings emphasize the need to be aware of social-emotional adversities that may occur in genetically vulnerable adolescents with ADHD symptoms in the transition into adulthood.

Prediction of beef carcass and meat quality traits from factors characterising the rearing management system applied during the whole life of heifers.

PubMed

Soulat, J; Picard, B; Léger, S; Monteils, V

2018-06-01

In this study, four prediction models were developed by logistic regression using individual data from 96 heifers. Carcass and sensory rectus abdominis quality clusters were identified then predicted using the rearing factors data. The obtained models from rearing factors applied during the fattening period were compared to those characterising the heifers' whole life. The highest prediction power of carcass and meat quality clusters were obtained from the models considering the whole life, with success rates of 62.8% and 54.9%, respectively. Rearing factors applied during both pre-weaning and fattening periods influenced carcass and meat quality. According to models, carcass traits were improved when heifer's mother was older for first calving, calves ingested concentrates during pasture preceding weaning and heifers were slaughtered older. Meat traits were improved by the genetic of heifers' parents (i.e., calving ease and early muscularity) and when heifers were slaughtered older. A management of carcass and meat quality traits is possible at different periods of the heifers' life. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

NASA GRC Fatigue Crack Initiation Life Prediction Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arya, Vinod K.; Halford, Gary R.

2002-01-01

Metal fatigue has plagued structural components for centuries, and it remains a critical durability issue in today's aerospace hardware. This is true despite vastly improved and advanced materials, increased mechanistic understanding, and development of accurate structural analysis and advanced fatigue life prediction tools. Each advance is quickly taken advantage of to produce safer, more reliable, more cost effective, and better performing products. In other words, as the envelope is expanded, components are then designed to operate just as close to the newly expanded envelope as they were to the initial one. The problem is perennial. The economic importance of addressing structural durability issues early in the design process is emphasized. Tradeoffs with performance, cost, and legislated restrictions are pointed out. Several aspects of structural durability of advanced systems, advanced materials and advanced fatigue life prediction methods are presented. Specific items include the basic elements of durability analysis, conventional designs, barriers to be overcome for advanced systems, high-temperature life prediction for both creep-fatigue and thermomechanical fatigue, mean stress effects, multiaxial stress-strain states, and cumulative fatigue damage accumulation assessment.

A Primer In Advanced Fatigue Life Prediction Methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halford, Gary R.

2000-01-01

Metal fatigue has plagued structural components for centuries, and it remains a critical durability issue in today's aerospace hardware. This is true despite vastly improved and advanced materials, increased mechanistic understanding, and development of accurate structural analysis and advanced fatigue life prediction tools. Each advance is quickly taken advantage of to produce safer, more reliable more cost effective, and better performing products. In other words, as the envelop is expanded, components are then designed to operate just as close to the newly expanded envelop as they were to the initial one. The problem is perennial. The economic importance of addressing structural durability issues early in the design process is emphasized. Tradeoffs with performance, cost, and legislated restrictions are pointed out. Several aspects of structural durability of advanced systems, advanced materials and advanced fatigue life prediction methods are presented. Specific items include the basic elements of durability analysis, conventional designs, barriers to be overcome for advanced systems, high-temperature life prediction for both creep-fatigue and thermomechanical fatigue, mean stress effects, multiaxial stress-strain states, and cumulative fatigue damage accumulation assessment.

Scoring life insurance applicants' laboratory results, blood pressure and build to predict all-cause mortality risk.

PubMed

Fulks, Michael; Stout, Robert L; Dolan, Vera F

2012-01-01

Evaluate the degree of medium to longer term mortality prediction possible from a scoring system covering all laboratory testing used for life insurance applicants, as well as blood pressure and build measurements. Using the results of testing for life insurance applicants who reported a Social Security number in conjunction with the Social Security Death Master File, the mortality associated with each test result was defined by age and sex. The individual mortality scores for each test were combined for each individual and a composite mortality risk score was developed. This score was then tested against the insurance applicant dataset to evaluate its ability to discriminate risk across age and sex. The composite risk score was highly predictive of all-cause mortality risk in a linear manner from the best to worst quintile of scores in a nearly identical fashion for each sex and decade of age. Laboratory studies, blood pressure and build from life insurance applicants can be used to create scoring that predicts all-cause mortality across age and sex. Such an approach may hold promise for preventative health screening as well.

NASA GRC Fatigue Crack Initiation Life Prediction Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arya, Vinod K.; Halford, Gary R.

2002-10-01

Metal fatigue has plagued structural components for centuries, and it remains a critical durability issue in today's aerospace hardware. This is true despite vastly improved and advanced materials, increased mechanistic understanding, and development of accurate structural analysis and advanced fatigue life prediction tools. Each advance is quickly taken advantage of to produce safer, more reliable, more cost effective, and better performing products. In other words, as the envelope is expanded, components are then designed to operate just as close to the newly expanded envelope as they were to the initial one. The problem is perennial. The economic importance of addressing structural durability issues early in the design process is emphasized. Tradeoffs with performance, cost, and legislated restrictions are pointed out. Several aspects of structural durability of advanced systems, advanced materials and advanced fatigue life prediction methods are presented. Specific items include the basic elements of durability analysis, conventional designs, barriers to be overcome for advanced systems, high-temperature life prediction for both creep-fatigue and thermomechanical fatigue, mean stress effects, multiaxial stress-strain states, and cumulative fatigue damage accumulation assessment.

ECOTOXICOGENOMICS: EXPOSURE INDICATORS USING ESTS AND SUBTRACTIVE LIBRARIES FOR MULTI-LIFE STAGES OF PIMEPHALES

EPA Science Inventory

Ecotoxicogenomics is research that identifies patterns of gene expression in wildlife and predicts effects of environmental stressors. We are developing a multiple stressor, multiple life stage exposure model using the fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas), initially studying fou...

The role of microstructure and phase distribution in the failure mechanisms and life prediction model for PSZ coatings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sisson, R. D., Jr.; Sone, Ichiro; Biederman, R. R.

1985-01-01

Partially Stabilized Zirconia (PSZ) may become widely used for Thermal Barrier Coatings (TBC). Failure of these coatings can occur due to thermal fatigue in oxidizing atmospheres. The failure is due to the strains that develop due to thermal gradients, differences in thermal expansion coefficients, and oxidation of the bond coating. The role of microstructure and the cubic, tetragonal, and monoclinic phase distribution in the strain development and subsequent failure will be discussed. An X-ray diffraction technique for accurate determination of the fraction of each phase in PSZ will be applied to understanding the phase transformations and strain development. These results will be discussed in terms of developing a model for life prediction in PSZ coatings during thermal cycling.

Thermal barrier coating life-prediction model development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strangman, T. E.; Neumann, J.; Liu, A.

1986-01-01

The program focuses on predicting the lives of two types of strain-tolerant and oxidation-resistant thermal barrier coating (TBC) systems that are produced by commercial coating suppliers to the gas turbine industry. The plasma-sprayed TBC system, composed of a low-pressure plasma-spray (LPPS) or an argon shrouded plasma-spray (ASPS) applied oxidation resistant NiCrAlY or (CoNiCrAlY) bond coating and an air-plasma-sprayed yttria partially stabilized zirconia insulative layer, is applied by both Chromalloy, Klock, and Union Carbide. The second type of TBS is applied by the electron beam-physical vapor deposition (EB-PVD) process by Temescal. The second year of the program was focused on specimen procurement, TMC system characterization, nondestructive evaluation methods, life prediction model development, and TFE731 engine testing of thermal barrier coated blades. Materials testing is approaching completion. Thermomechanical characterization of the TBC systems, with toughness, and spalling strain tests, was completed. Thermochemical testing is approximately two-thirds complete. Preliminary materials life models for the bond coating oxidation and zirconia sintering failure modes were developed. Integration of these life models with airfoil component analysis methods is in progress. Testing of high pressure turbine blades coated with the program TBS systems is in progress in a TFE731 turbofan engine. Eddy current technology feasibility was established with respect to nondestructively measuring zirconia layer thickness of a TBC system.

Creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic): Fourth year progress review

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nelson, Richard S.; Schoendorf, John F.

1986-01-01

As gas turbine technology continues to advance, the need for advanced life prediction methods for hot section components is becoming more and more evident. The complex local strain and temperature histories at critical locations must be accurately interpreted to account for the effects of various damage mechanisms (such as fatigue, creep, and oxidation) and their possible interactions. As part of the overall NASA HOST effort, this program is designed to investigate these fundamental damage processes, identify modeling strategies, and develop practical models which can be used to guide the early design and development of new engines and to increase the durability of existing engines.

Candidate Predictors of Health-Related Quality of Life of Colorectal Cancer Survivors: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

van der Linden, Bernadette W.A.; Winkels, Renate M.; van Duijnhoven, Fränzel J.; Mols, Floortje; van Roekel, Eline H.; Kampman, Ellen; Beijer, Sandra; Weijenberg, Matty P.

2016-01-01

The population of colorectal cancer (CRC) survivors is growing and many survivors experience deteriorated health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in both early and late post-treatment phases. Identification of CRC survivors at risk for HRQoL deterioration can be improved by using prediction models. However, such models are currently not available for oncology practice. As a starting point for developing prediction models of HRQoL for CRC survivors, a comprehensive overview of potential candidate HRQoL predictors is necessary. Therefore, a systematic literature review was conducted to identify candidate predictors of HRQoL of CRC survivors. Original research articles on associations of biopsychosocial factors with HRQoL of CRC survivors were searched in PubMed, Embase, and Google Scholar. Two independent reviewers assessed eligibility and selected articles for inclusion (N = 53). Strength of evidence for candidate HRQoL predictors was graded according to predefined methodological criteria. The World Health Organization’s International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF) was used to develop a biopsychosocial framework in which identified candidate HRQoL predictors were mapped across the main domains of the ICF: health condition, body structures and functions, activities, participation, and personal and environmental factors. The developed biopsychosocial ICF framework serves as a basis for selecting candidate HRQoL predictors, thereby providing conceptual guidance for developing comprehensive, evidence-based prediction models of HRQoL for CRC survivors. Such models are useful in clinical oncology practice to aid in identifying individual CRC survivors at risk for HRQoL deterioration and could also provide potential targets for a biopsychosocial intervention aimed at safeguarding the HRQoL of at-risk individuals. Implications for Practice: More and more people now survive a diagnosis of colorectal cancer. The quality of life of these cancer survivors is threatened by health problems persisting for years after diagnosis and treatment. Early identification of survivors at risk of experiencing low quality of life in the future is thus important for taking preventive measures. Clinical prediction models are tools that can help oncologists identify at-risk individuals. However, such models are currently not available for clinical oncology practice. This systematic review outlines candidate predictors of low quality of life of colorectal cancer survivors, providing a firm conceptual basis for developing prediction models. PMID:26911406

Hydrologic filtering of fish life history strategies across the United States: implications for stream flow alteration

DOE PAGES

McManamay, Ryan A.; Frimpong, Emmanuel A.

2015-01-01

Lotic fish have developed life history strategies adapted to the natural variation in stream flow regimes. The natural timing, duration, and magnitude of flow events has contributed to the diversity, production, and composition of fish assemblages over time. Studies evaluating the role of hydrology in structuring fish assemblages have been more common at the local or regional scale with very few studies conducted at the continental scale. Furthermore, quantitative linkages between natural hydrologic patterns and fish assemblages are rarely used to make predictions of ecological consequences of hydrologic alterations. We ask two questions: (1) what is the relative role ofmore » hydrology in structuring fish assemblages at large scales? and (2) can relationships between fish assemblages and natural hydrology be utilized to predict fish assemblage responses to hydrologic disturbance? We developed models to relate fish life histories and reproductive strategies to landscape and hydrologic variables separately and then combined. Models were then used to predict the ecological consequences of altered hydrology due to dam regulation. Although hydrology plays a considerable role in structuring fish assemblages, the performance of models using only hydrologic variables was lower than that of models constructed using landscape variables. Isolating the relative importance of hydrology in structuring fish assemblages at the continental scale is difficult since hydrology is interrelated to many landscape factors. By applying models to dam-regulated hydrologic data, we observed some consistent predicted responses in fish life history strategies and modes of reproduction. In agreement with existing literature, equilibrium strategists are predicted to increase following dam regulation, whereas opportunistic and periodic species are predicted to decrease. In addition, dam regulation favors the selection of reproductive strategies with extended spawning seasons and preference for stable conditions.« less

Hydrologic filtering of fish life history strategies across the United States: implications for stream flow alteration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McManamay, Ryan A.; Frimpong, Emmanuel A.

Lotic fish have developed life history strategies adapted to the natural variation in stream flow regimes. The natural timing, duration, and magnitude of flow events has contributed to the diversity, production, and composition of fish assemblages over time. Studies evaluating the role of hydrology in structuring fish assemblages have been more common at the local or regional scale with very few studies conducted at the continental scale. Furthermore, quantitative linkages between natural hydrologic patterns and fish assemblages are rarely used to make predictions of ecological consequences of hydrologic alterations. We ask two questions: (1) what is the relative role ofmore » hydrology in structuring fish assemblages at large scales? and (2) can relationships between fish assemblages and natural hydrology be utilized to predict fish assemblage responses to hydrologic disturbance? We developed models to relate fish life histories and reproductive strategies to landscape and hydrologic variables separately and then combined. Models were then used to predict the ecological consequences of altered hydrology due to dam regulation. Although hydrology plays a considerable role in structuring fish assemblages, the performance of models using only hydrologic variables was lower than that of models constructed using landscape variables. Isolating the relative importance of hydrology in structuring fish assemblages at the continental scale is difficult since hydrology is interrelated to many landscape factors. By applying models to dam-regulated hydrologic data, we observed some consistent predicted responses in fish life history strategies and modes of reproduction. In agreement with existing literature, equilibrium strategists are predicted to increase following dam regulation, whereas opportunistic and periodic species are predicted to decrease. In addition, dam regulation favors the selection of reproductive strategies with extended spawning seasons and preference for stable conditions.« less

Predictive models of moth development

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Degree-day models link ambient temperature to insect life-stages, making such models valuable tools in integrated pest management. These models increase management efficacy by predicting pest phenology. In Wisconsin, the top insect pest of cranberry production is the cranberry fruitworm, Acrobasis v...

Physics based modeling of a series parallel battery pack for asymmetry analysis, predictive control and life extension

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganesan, Nandhini; Basu, Suman; Hariharan, Krishnan S.; Kolake, Subramanya Mayya; Song, Taewon; Yeo, Taejung; Sohn, Dong Kee; Doo, Seokgwang

2016-08-01

Lithium-Ion batteries used for electric vehicle applications are subject to large currents and various operation conditions, making battery pack design and life extension a challenging problem. With increase in complexity, modeling and simulation can lead to insights that ensure optimal performance and life extension. In this manuscript, an electrochemical-thermal (ECT) coupled model for a 6 series × 5 parallel pack is developed for Li ion cells with NCA/C electrodes and validated against experimental data. Contribution of the cathode to overall degradation at various operating conditions is assessed. Pack asymmetry is analyzed from a design and an operational perspective. Design based asymmetry leads to a new approach of obtaining the individual cell responses of the pack from an average ECT output. Operational asymmetry is demonstrated in terms of effects of thermal gradients on cycle life, and an efficient model predictive control technique is developed. Concept of reconfigurable battery pack is studied using detailed simulations that can be used for effective monitoring and extension of battery pack life.

End-of-Discharge and End-of-Life Prediction in Lithium-Ion Batteries with Electrochemistry-Based Aging Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daigle, Matthew; Kulkarni, Chetan S.

2016-01-01

As batteries become increasingly prevalent in complex systems such as aircraft and electric cars, monitoring and predicting battery state of charge and state of health becomes critical. In order to accurately predict the remaining battery power to support system operations for informed operational decision-making, age-dependent changes in dynamics must be accounted for. Using an electrochemistry-based model, we investigate how key parameters of the battery change as aging occurs, and develop models to describe aging through these key parameters. Using these models, we demonstrate how we can (i) accurately predict end-of-discharge for aged batteries, and (ii) predict the end-of-life of a battery as a function of anticipated usage. The approach is validated through an experimental set of randomized discharge profiles.

Constitutive and life modeling of single crystal blade alloys for root attachment analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meyer, T. G.; Mccarthy, G. J.; Favrow, L. H.; Anton, D. L.; Bak, Joe

1988-01-01

Work to develop fatigue life prediction and constitutive models for uncoated attachment regions of single crystal gas turbine blades is described. At temperatures relevant to attachment regions, deformation is dominated by slip on crystallographic planes. However, fatigue crack initiation and early crack growth are not always observed to be crystallographic. The influence of natural occurring microporosity will be investigated by testing both hot isostatically pressed and conventionally cast PWA 1480 single crystal specimens. Several differnt specimen configurations and orientations relative to the natural crystal axes are being tested to investigate the influence of notch acuity and the material's anisotropy. Global and slip system stresses in the notched regions were determined from three dimensional stress analyses and will be used to develop fatigue life prediction models consistent with the observed lives and crack characteristics.

Methodological Validation of Quality of Life Questionnaire for Coal Mining Groups-Indian Scenario

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sen, Sayanti; Sen, Goutam; Tewary, B. K.

2012-01-01

Maslow's hierarchy-of-needs theory has been used to predict development of Quality of Life (QOL) in countries over time. In this paper an attempt has been taken to derive a methodological validation of quality of life questionnaire which have been prepared for the study area. The objective of the study is to standardize a questionnaire tool to…

A comparison of major petroleum life cycle models

EPA Science Inventory

Many organizations have attempted to develop an accurate well-to-pump life cycle model of petroleum products in order to inform decision makers of the consequences of its use. Our paper studies five of these models, demonstrating the differences in their predictions and attemptin...

Profiles of observed infant anger predict preschool behavior problems: Moderation by life stress

PubMed Central

Brooker, Rebecca J.; Buss, Kristin A.; Lemery-Chalfant, Kathryn; Aksan, Nazan; Davidson, Richard J.; Goldsmith, H. Hill

2014-01-01

Using both traditional composites and novel profiles of anger, we examined associations between infant anger and preschool behavior problems in a large, longitudinal data set (N = 966). We also tested the role of life stress as a moderator of the link between early anger and the development of behavior problems. Although traditional measures of anger were largely unrelated to later behavior problems, profiles of anger that dissociated typical from atypical development predicted behavior problems during preschool. Moreover, the relation between infant anger profiles and preschool behavior problems was moderated such that, when early life stress was low, infants with atypical profiles of early anger showed more preschool behavior problems than did infants with normative anger profiles. However, when early life stress was high, infants with atypical and normative profiles of infant anger did not differ in preschool behavior problems. We conclude that a discrete emotions approach including latent profile analysis is useful for elucidating biological and environmental developmental pathways to early problem behaviors. PMID:25151247

A Fatigue Life Prediction Model of Welded Joints under Combined Cyclic Loading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goes, Keurrie C.; Camarao, Arnaldo F.; Pereira, Marcos Venicius S.; Ferreira Batalha, Gilmar

2011-01-01

A practical and robust methodology is developed to evaluate the fatigue life in seam welded joints when subjected to combined cyclic loading. The fatigue analysis was conducted in virtual environment. The FE stress results from each loading were imported to fatigue code FE-Fatigue and combined to perform the fatigue life prediction using the S x N (stress x life) method. The measurement or modelling of the residual stresses resulting from the welded process is not part of this work. However, the thermal and metallurgical effects, such as distortions and residual stresses, were considered indirectly through fatigue curves corrections in the samples investigated. A tube-plate specimen was submitted to combined cyclic loading (bending and torsion) with constant amplitude. The virtual durability analysis result was calibrated based on these laboratory tests and design codes such as BS7608 and Eurocode 3. The feasibility and application of the proposed numerical-experimental methodology and contributions for the technical development are discussed. Major challenges associated with this modelling and improvement proposals are finally presented.

Prediction of L70 lumen maintenance and chromaticity for LEDs using extended Kalman filter models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lall, Pradeep; Wei, Junchao; Davis, Lynn

2013-09-30

Solid-state lighting (SSL) luminaires containing light emitting diodes (LEDs) have the potential of seeing excessive temperatures when being transported across country or being stored in non-climate controlled warehouses. They are also being used in outdoor applications in desert environments that see little or no humidity but will experience extremely high temperatures during the day. This makes it important to increase our understanding of what effects high temperature exposure for a prolonged period of time will have on the usability and survivability of these devices. Traditional light sources “burn out” at end-of-life. For an incandescent bulb, the lamp life is definedmore » by B50 life. However, the LEDs have no filament to “burn”. The LEDs continually degrade and the light output decreases eventually below useful levels causing failure. Presently, the TM-21 test standard is used to predict the L70 life of LEDs from LM-80 test data. Several failure mechanisms may be active in a LED at a single time causing lumen depreciation. The underlying TM-21 Model may not capture the failure physics in presence of multiple failure mechanisms. Correlation of lumen maintenance with underlying physics of degradation at system-level is needed. In this paper, Kalman Filter (KF) and Extended Kalman Filters (EKF) have been used to develop a 70-percent Lumen Maintenance Life Prediction Model for LEDs used in SSL luminaires. Ten-thousand hour LM-80 test data for various LEDs have been used for model development. System state at each future time has been computed based on the state space at preceding time step, system dynamics matrix, control vector, control matrix, measurement matrix, measured vector, process noise and measurement noise. The future state of the lumen depreciation has been estimated based on a second order Kalman Filter model and a Bayesian Framework. The measured state variable has been related to the underlying damage using physics-based models. Life prediction of L70 life for the LEDs used in SSL luminaires from KF and EKF based models have been compared with the TM-21 model predictions and experimental data.« less

Prediction of Lumen Output and Chromaticity Shift in LEDs Using Kalman Filter and Extended Kalman Filter Based Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lall, Pradeep; Wei, Junchao; Davis, J Lynn

2014-06-24

Abstract— Solid-state lighting (SSL) luminaires containing light emitting diodes (LEDs) have the potential of seeing excessive temperatures when being transported across country or being stored in non-climate controlled warehouses. They are also being used in outdoor applications in desert environments that see little or no humidity but will experience extremely high temperatures during the day. This makes it important to increase our understanding of what effects high temperature exposure for a prolonged period of time will have on the usability and survivability of these devices. Traditional light sources “burn out” at end-of-life. For an incandescent bulb, the lamp life ismore » defined by B50 life. However, the LEDs have no filament to “burn”. The LEDs continually degrade and the light output decreases eventually below useful levels causing failure. Presently, the TM-21 test standard is used to predict the L70 life of LEDs from LM-80 test data. Several failure mechanisms may be active in a LED at a single time causing lumen depreciation. The underlying TM-21 Model may not capture the failure physics in presence of multiple failure mechanisms. Correlation of lumen maintenance with underlying physics of degradation at system-level is needed. In this paper, Kalman Filter (KF) and Extended Kalman Filters (EKF) have been used to develop a 70-percent Lumen Maintenance Life Prediction Model for LEDs used in SSL luminaires. Ten-thousand hour LM-80 test data for various LEDs have been used for model development. System state at each future time has been computed based on the state space at preceding time step, system dynamics matrix, control vector, control matrix, measurement matrix, measured vector, process noise and measurement noise. The future state of the lumen depreciation has been estimated based on a second order Kalman Filter model and a Bayesian Framework. Life prediction of L70 life for the LEDs used in SSL luminaires from KF and EKF based models have been compared with the TM-21 model predictions and experimental data.« less

The Neu-Prem Trial: Neuromonitoring of Brains of Infants Born Preterm During Resuscitation-A Prospective Observational Cohort Study.

PubMed

Katheria, Anup C; Harbert, M J; Nagaraj, Sunil B; Arnell, Kathy; Poeltler, Debra M; Brown, Melissa K; Rich, Wade; Hassen, Kasim O; Finer, Neil

2018-04-16

To determine whether monitoring cerebral oxygen tissue saturation (StO 2 ) with near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) and brain activity with amplitude-integrated electroencephalography (aEEG) can predict infants at risk for intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH) and death in the first 72 hours of life. A NIRS sensor and electroencephalography leads were placed on 127 newborns <32 weeks of gestational age at birth. Ten minutes of continuous NIRS and aEEG along with heart rate, peripheral arterial oxygen saturation, fraction of inspired oxygen, and mean airway pressure measurements were obtained in the delivery room. Once the infant was transferred to the neonatal intensive care unit, NIRS, aEEG, and vital signs were recorded until 72 hours of life. An ultrasound scan of the head was performed within the first 12 hours of life and again at 72 hours of life. Thirteen of the infants developed any IVH or died; of these, 4 developed severe IVH (grade 3-4) within 72 hours. There were no differences in either cerebral StO 2 or aEEG in the infants with low-grade IVH. Infants who developed severe IVH or death had significantly lower cerebral StO 2 from 8 to 10 minutes of life. aEEG was not predictive of IVH or death in the delivery room or in the neonatal intensive care unit. It may be possible to use NIRS in the delivery room to predict severe IVH and early death. ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02605733. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Lithium-Ion Batteries for Aerospace Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Surampudi, S.; Halpert, G.; Marsh, R. A.; James, R.

1999-01-01

This presentation reviews: (1) the goals and objectives, (2) the NASA and Airforce requirements, (3) the potential near term missions, (4) management approach, (5) the technical approach and (6) the program road map. The objectives of the program include: (1) develop high specific energy and long life lithium ion cells and smart batteries for aerospace and defense applications, (2) establish domestic production sources, and to demonstrate technological readiness for various missions. The management approach is to encourage the teaming of universities, R&D organizations, and battery manufacturing companies, to build on existing commercial and government technology, and to develop two sources for manufacturing cells and batteries. The technological approach includes: (1) develop advanced electrode materials and electrolytes to achieve improved low temperature performance and long cycle life, (2) optimize cell design to improve specific energy, cycle life and safety, (3) establish manufacturing processes to ensure predictable performance, (4) establish manufacturing processes to ensure predictable performance, (5) develop aerospace lithium ion cells in various AH sizes and voltages, (6) develop electronics for smart battery management, (7) develop a performance database required for various applications, and (8) demonstrate technology readiness for the various missions. Charts which review the requirements for the Li-ion battery development program are presented.

Thermal barrier coating life prediction model development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sheffler, K. D.; Demasi, J. T.

1985-01-01

A methodology was established to predict thermal barrier coating life in an environment simulative of that experienced by gas turbine airfoils. Specifically, work is being conducted to determine failure modes of thermal barrier coatings in the aircraft engine environment. Analytical studies coupled with appropriate physical and mechanical property determinations are being employed to derive coating life prediction model(s) on the important failure mode(s). An initial review of experimental and flight service components indicates that the predominant mode of TBC failure involves thermomechanical spallation of the ceramic coating layer. This ceramic spallation involves the formation of a dominant crack in the ceramic coating parallel to and closely adjacent to the metal-ceramic interface. Initial results from a laboratory test program designed to study the influence of various driving forces such as temperature, thermal cycle frequency, environment, and coating thickness, on ceramic coating spalling life suggest that bond coat oxidation damage at the metal-ceramic interface contributes significantly to thermomechanical cracking in the ceramic layer. Low cycle rate furnace testing in air and in argon clearly shows a dramatic increase of spalling life in the non-oxidizing environments.

Improvement in fresh fruit and vegetable logistics quality: berry logistics field studies.

PubMed

do Nascimento Nunes, M Cecilia; Nicometo, Mike; Emond, Jean Pierre; Melis, Ricardo Badia; Uysal, Ismail

2014-06-13

Shelf life of fresh fruits and vegetables is greatly influenced by environmental conditions. Increasing temperature usually results in accelerated loss of quality and shelf-life reduction, which is not physically visible until too late in the supply chain to adjust logistics to match shelf life. A blackberry study showed that temperatures inside pallets varied significantly and 57% of the berries arriving at the packinghouse did not have enough remaining shelf life for the longest supply routes. Yet, the advanced shelf-life loss was not physically visible. Some of those pallets would be sent on longer supply routes than necessary, creating avoidable waste. Other studies showed that variable pre-cooling at the centre of pallets resulted in physically invisible uneven shelf life. We have shown that using simple temperature measurements much waste can be avoided using 'first expiring first out'. Results from our studies showed that shelf-life prediction should not be based on a single quality factor as, depending on the temperature history, the quality attribute that limits shelf life may vary. Finally, methods to use air temperature to predict product temperature for highest shelf-life prediction accuracy in the absence of individual sensors for each monitored product have been developed. Our results show a significant reduction of up to 98% in the root-mean-square-error difference between the product temperature and air temperature when advanced estimation methods are used.

Student and Teacher Perceptions of the Use of Multimedia Supported Predict-Observe-Explain Tasks To Probe Understanding.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kearney, Matthew; Treagust, David F.; Yeo, Shelley; Zadnik, Marjan G.

2001-01-01

Discusses student and teacher perceptions of a new development in the use of the predict-observe-explain (POE) strategy. This development involves the incorporation of POE tasks into a multimedia computer program that uses real-life, digital video clips of difficult, expensive, time consuming, or dangerous scenarios as stimuli for these tasks.…

Integrating the pace-of-life syndrome across species, sexes and individuals: covariation of life history and personality under pesticide exposure.

PubMed

Debecker, Sara; Sanmartín-Villar, Iago; de Guinea-Luengo, Miguel; Cordero-Rivera, Adolfo; Stoks, Robby

2016-05-01

The pace-of-life syndrome (POLS) hypothesis integrates covariation of life-history traits along a fast-slow continuum and covariation of behavioural traits along a proactive-reactive personality continuum. Few studies have investigated these predicted life-history/personality associations among species and between sexes. Furthermore, whether and how contaminants interfere with POLS patterns remains unexplored. We tested for covariation patterns in life history and in behaviour, and for life-history/personality covariation among species, among individuals within species and between sexes. Moreover, we investigated whether pesticide exposure affects covariation between life history and behaviour and whether species and sexes with a faster POLS strategy have a higher sensitivity to pesticides. We reared larvae of four species of Ischnura damselflies in a common garden experiment with an insecticide treatment (chlorpyrifos absent/present) in the final instar. We measured four life-history traits (larval growth rate during the pesticide treatment, larval development time, adult mass and life span) and two behavioural traits (larval feeding activity and boldness, each before and after the pesticide treatment). At the individual level, life-history traits and behavioural traits aligned along a fast-slow and a proactive-reactive continuum, respectively. Species-specific differences in life history, with fast-lived species having a faster larval growth and development, a lower mass at emergence and a shorter life span, suggested that time constraints in the larval stage were predictably driving life-history evolution both in the larval stage and across metamorphosis in the adult stage. Across species, females were consistently more slow-lived than males, reflecting that a large body size and a long life span are generally more important for females. In contrast to the POLS hypothesis, there was only little evidence for the expected positive coupling between life-history pace and proactivity. Pesticide exposure decreased larval growth rate and affected life-history/personality covariation in the most fast-lived species. Our study supports the existence of life-history and behavioural continua with limited support for life-history/personality covariation. Variation in digestive physiology may explain this decoupling of life history and behaviour and provide valuable mechanistic insights to understand and predict the occurrence of life-history/personality covariation patterns. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2016 British Ecological Society.

Quantifying the spoilage and shelf-life of yoghurt with fruits.

PubMed

Mataragas, M; Dimitriou, V; Skandamis, P N; Drosinos, E H

2011-05-01

The aim of the present study was to develop a predictive model to quantify the spoilage of yoghurt with fruits. Product samples were stored at various temperatures (5-20 °C). Samples were subjected to microbiological (total viable counts, lactic acid bacteria-LAB, yeasts and moulds) and physico-chemical analysis (pH, titratable acidity and sugars). LAB was the dominant micro-flora. Yeasts population increased at all temperatures but a delay was observed during the first days of storage. Titratable acidity and pH remained almost constant at low temperatures (5 and 10 °C). However, at higher temperatures (>10 °C), an increase in titratable acidity and reduction in pH was observed. Sugar concentration (fructose, lactose and glucose) decreased during storage. A mathematical model was developed for shelf-life determination of the product. It was successfully validated at a temperature (17 °C) not used during model development. The results showed that shelf-life of this product could not be established based only on microbiological data and use of other parameters such as sensory or/and physico-chemical analysis is required. Shelf-life determination by spoilage tests is time-consuming and the need for new rapid techniques has been raised. The developed model could help dairy industries to establish shelf-life predictions on yoghurt with fruits stored under constant temperature conditions. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Correlate Life Predictions and Condition Indicators in Helicopter Tail Gearbox Bearings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dempsey, Paula J.; Bolander, Nathan; Haynes, Chris; Branning, Jeremy; Wade, Daniel R.

2010-01-01

Research to correlate bearing remaining useful life (RUL) predictions with Helicopter Health Usage Monitoring Systems (HUMS) condition indicators (CI) to indicate the damage state of a transmission component has been developed. Condition indicators were monitored and recorded on UH-60M (Black Hawk) tail gearbox output shaft thrust bearings, which had been removed from helicopters and installed in a bearing spall propagation test rig. Condition indicators monitoring the tail gearbox output shaft thrust bearings in UH-60M helicopters were also recorded from an on-board HUMS. The spal-lpropagation data collected in the test rig was used to generate condition indicators for bearing fault detection. A damage progression model was also developed from this data. Determining the RUL of this component in a helicopter requires the CI response to be mapped to the damage state. The data from helicopters and a test rig were analyzed to determine if bearing remaining useful life predictions could be correlated with HUMS condition indicators (CI). Results indicate data fusion analysis techniques can be used to map the CI response to the damage levels.

Life prediction and constitutive models for engine hot section anisotropic materials program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nissley, D. M.; Meyer, T. G.

1992-01-01

This report presents the results from a 35 month period of a program designed to develop generic constitutive and life prediction approaches and models for nickel-based single crystal gas turbine airfoils. The program is composed of a base program and an optional program. The base program addresses the high temperature coated single crystal regime above the airfoil root platform. The optional program investigates the low temperature uncoated single crystal regime below the airfoil root platform including the notched conditions of the airfoil attachment. Both base and option programs involve experimental and analytical efforts. Results from uniaxial constitutive and fatigue life experiments of coated and uncoated PWA 1480 single crystal material form the basis for the analytical modeling effort. Four single crystal primary orientations were used in the experiments: (001), (011), (111), and (213). Specific secondary orientations were also selected for the notched experiments in the optional program. Constitutive models for an overlay coating and PWA 1480 single crystal material were developed based on isothermal hysteresis loop data and verified using thermomechanical (TMF) hysteresis loop data. A fatigue life approach and life models were selected for TMF crack initiation of coated PWA 1480. An initial life model used to correlate smooth and notched fatigue data obtained in the option program shows promise. Computer software incorporating the overlay coating and PWA 1480 constitutive models was developed.

The developmental origins of cognitive vulnerability to depression: temperament, parenting, and negative life events in childhood as contributors to negative cognitive style.

PubMed

Mezulis, Amy H; Hyde, Janet Shibley; Abramson, Lyn Y

2006-11-01

Cognitive models of depression have been well supported with adults, but the developmental origins of cognitive vulnerability are not well understood. The authors hypothesized that temperament, parenting, and negative life events in childhood would contribute to the development of cognitive style, with withdrawal negativity and negative parental feedback moderating the effects of negative life events to predict more depressogenic cognitive styles. These constructs were assessed in 289 children and their parents followed longitudinally from infancy to 5th grade; a subsample (n = 120) also participated in a behavioral task in which maternal feedback to child failure was observed. Results indicated that greater withdrawal negativity in interaction with negative life events was associated with more negative cognitive styles. Self-reported maternal anger expression and observed negative maternal feedback to child's failure significantly interacted with child's negative events to predict greater cognitive vulnerability. There was little evidence of paternal parenting predicting child negative cognitive style.

Preschool Life Skills: Recent Advancements and Future Directions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fahmie, Tara A.; Luczynski, Kevin C.

2018-01-01

Over the past decade, researchers have replicated and extended research on the preschool life skills (PLS) program developed by Hanley, Heal, Tiger, and Ingvarsson (2007). This review summarizes recent research with respect to maximizing skill acquisition, improving generality, evaluating feasibility and acceptability, and testing predictions of…

Development of an Accelerated Test Design for Predicting the Service Life of the Solar Array at Mead, Nebraska

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gaines, G. B.; Thomas, R. E.; Noel, G. T.; Shilliday, T. S.; Wood, V. E.; Carmichael, D. C.

1979-01-01

An accelerated life test is described which was developed to predict the life of the 25 kW photovoltaic array installed near Mead, Nebraska. A quantitative model for accelerating testing using multiple environmental stresses was used to develop the test design. The model accounts for the effects of thermal stress by a relation of the Arrhenius form. This relation was then corrected for the effects of nonthermal environmental stresses, such as relative humidity, atmospheric pollutants, and ultraviolet radiation. The correction factors for the nonthermal stresses included temperature-dependent exponents to account for the effects of interactions between thermal and nonthermal stresses on the rate of degradation of power output. The test conditions, measurements, and data analyses for the accelerated tests are presented. Constant-temperature, cyclic-temperature, and UV types of tests are specified, incorporating selected levels of relative humidity and chemical contamination and an imposed forward-bias current and static electric field.

Maternal role development: the impact of maternal distress and social support following childbirth.

PubMed

Emmanuel, Elizabeth N; Creedy, Debra K; St John, Winsome; Brown, Claire

2011-04-01

to explore the relationship between maternal role development (MRD), maternal distress (MD) and social support following childbirth. prospective longitudinal survey. three public hospital maternity units in Brisbane, Australia. 630 pregnant women were invited to participate in the study, with a 77% (n=473) completion rate. to measure MRD, the Prenatal Maternal Expectation Scale was used at 36 weeks of pregnancy, and the revised What Being the Parent of a New Baby is Like (with subscales of evaluation, centrality and life change) was used at six and 12 weeks post partum. At all three data collection points, the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale was used to measure MD, and the Maternal Social Support Scale was used to measure social support. at 36 weeks of gestation, optimal scaling for MRD produced a parsimonious model with MD providing 39% of predictive power. At six weeks post partum, similar models predicting MRD were found (evaluation: r(2)=0.14, MD providing 64% of predictive power; centrality: r(2)=0.07, MD providing 11% of predictive power; life change: r(2)=0.26, MD providing 59% of predictive power). At 12 weeks post partum, MD was a predictor for evaluation (r(2)=0.11) and life change (r(2)=0.26, 54% of predictive power). there is a statistically significant but moderate correlation between MRD and MD. The transition to motherhood can be stressful, but may be facilitated by appropriate acknowledgement and support with an emphasis on MRD. Copyright © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Happiness Unpacked: Positive Emotions Increase Life Satisfaction by Building Resilience

PubMed Central

Cohn, Michael A.; Fredrickson, Barbara L.; Brown, Stephanie L.; Mikels, Joseph A.; Conway, Anne M.

2011-01-01

Happiness – a composite of life satisfaction, coping resources, and positive emotions – predicts desirable life outcomes in many domains. The broaden-and-build theory suggests that this is because positive emotions help people build lasting resources. To test this hypothesis we measured emotions daily for one month in a sample of students (N=86) and assessed life satisfaction and trait resilience at the beginning and end of the month. Positive emotions predicted increases in both resilience and life satisfaction. Negative emotions had weak or null effects, and did not interfere with the benefits of positive emotions. Positive emotions also mediated the relation between baseline and final resilience, but life satisfaction did not. This suggests that it is in-the-moment positive emotions, and not more general positive evaluations of one’s life, that form the link between happiness and desirable life outcomes. Change in resilience mediated the relation between positive emotions and increased life satisfaction, suggesting that happy people become more satisfied not simply because they feel better, but because they develop resources for living well. PMID:19485613

Fast–slow continuum and reproductive strategies structure plant life-history variation worldwide

PubMed Central

Salguero-Gómez, Roberto; Jones, Owen R.; Jongejans, Eelke; Blomberg, Simon P.; Hodgson, David J.; Mbeau-Ache, Cyril; Zuidema, Pieter A.; de Kroon, Hans; Buckley, Yvonne M.

2016-01-01

The identification of patterns in life-history strategies across the tree of life is essential to our prediction of population persistence, extinction, and diversification. Plants exhibit a wide range of patterns of longevity, growth, and reproduction, but the general determinants of this enormous variation in life history are poorly understood. We use demographic data from 418 plant species in the wild, from annual herbs to supercentennial trees, to examine how growth form, habitat, and phylogenetic relationships structure plant life histories and to develop a framework to predict population performance. We show that 55% of the variation in plant life-history strategies is adequately characterized using two independent axes: the fast–slow continuum, including fast-growing, short-lived plant species at one end and slow-growing, long-lived species at the other, and a reproductive strategy axis, with highly reproductive, iteroparous species at one extreme and poorly reproductive, semelparous plants with frequent shrinkage at the other. Our findings remain consistent across major habitats and are minimally affected by plant growth form and phylogenetic ancestry, suggesting that the relative independence of the fast–slow and reproduction strategy axes is general in the plant kingdom. Our findings have similarities with how life-history strategies are structured in mammals, birds, and reptiles. The position of plant species populations in the 2D space produced by both axes predicts their rate of recovery from disturbances and population growth rate. This life-history framework may complement trait-based frameworks on leaf and wood economics; together these frameworks may allow prediction of responses of plants to anthropogenic disturbances and changing environments. PMID:26699477

Fast-slow continuum and reproductive strategies structure plant life-history variation worldwide.

PubMed

Salguero-Gómez, Roberto; Jones, Owen R; Jongejans, Eelke; Blomberg, Simon P; Hodgson, David J; Mbeau-Ache, Cyril; Zuidema, Pieter A; de Kroon, Hans; Buckley, Yvonne M

2016-01-05

The identification of patterns in life-history strategies across the tree of life is essential to our prediction of population persistence, extinction, and diversification. Plants exhibit a wide range of patterns of longevity, growth, and reproduction, but the general determinants of this enormous variation in life history are poorly understood. We use demographic data from 418 plant species in the wild, from annual herbs to supercentennial trees, to examine how growth form, habitat, and phylogenetic relationships structure plant life histories and to develop a framework to predict population performance. We show that 55% of the variation in plant life-history strategies is adequately characterized using two independent axes: the fast-slow continuum, including fast-growing, short-lived plant species at one end and slow-growing, long-lived species at the other, and a reproductive strategy axis, with highly reproductive, iteroparous species at one extreme and poorly reproductive, semelparous plants with frequent shrinkage at the other. Our findings remain consistent across major habitats and are minimally affected by plant growth form and phylogenetic ancestry, suggesting that the relative independence of the fast-slow and reproduction strategy axes is general in the plant kingdom. Our findings have similarities with how life-history strategies are structured in mammals, birds, and reptiles. The position of plant species populations in the 2D space produced by both axes predicts their rate of recovery from disturbances and population growth rate. This life-history framework may complement trait-based frameworks on leaf and wood economics; together these frameworks may allow prediction of responses of plants to anthropogenic disturbances and changing environments.

Eudaimonic growth: Narrative growth goals predict increases in ego development and subjective well-being 3 years later.

PubMed

Bauer, Jack J; McAdams, Dan P

2010-07-01

We examine (a) the normative course of eudaimonic well-being in emerging adulthood and (b) whether people's narratives of major life goals might prospectively predict eudaimonic growth 3 years later. We define eudaimonic growth as longitudinal increases in eudaimonic well-being, which we define as the combination of psychosocial maturity and subjective well-being (SWB). College freshmen and seniors took measures of ego development (ED; to assess maturity; Loevinger, 1976) and SWB at Time 1 (T1) and again 3 years later (Time 2). ED levels increased longitudinally across that time for men and T1 freshmen, but SWB levels did not change. Participants also wrote narratives of 2 major life goals at T1 that were coded for an explicit emphasis on specific kinds of personal growth. Participants' intellectual-growth goals (especially agentic ones) predicted increases in ED 3 years later, whereas participants' socioemotional-growth goals (especially communal ones) predicted increases in SWB 3 years later. These findings were independent of the effects of Big Five personality traits-notably conscientiousness, which on its own predicted increases in SWB. We discuss (a) emerging adulthood as the last stop for normative eudaimonic growth in modern society and (b) empirical and theoretical issues surrounding the relations among narrative identity, life planning, dispositional traits, eudaimonia, and 2 paths of personal growth.

A coupled aero-structural model of a HAWT blade for dynamic load and response prediction in time-domain for health monitoring applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sauder, Heather Scot

To reach the high standards set for renewable energy production in the US and around the globe, wind turbines with taller towers and longer blades are being designed for onshore and offshore wind developments to capture more energy from higher winds aloft and a larger rotor diameter. However, amongst all the wind turbine components wind turbine blades are still the most prone to damage. Given that wind turbine blades experience dynamic loads from multiple sources, there is a need to be able to predict the real-time load, stress distribution and response of the blade in a given wind environment for damage, flutter and fatigue life predictions. Current methods of wind-induced response analysis for wind turbine blades use approximations that are not suitable for wind turbine blade airfoils which are thick, and therefore lead to inaccurate life predictions. Additionally, a time-domain formulation can prove to be especially advantageous for predicting aerodynamic loads on wind turbine blades since they operate in a turbulent atmospheric boundary layer. This will help to analyze the blades on wind turbines that operate individually or in a farm setting where they experience high turbulence in the wake of another wind turbine. A time-domain formulation is also useful for examining the effects of gusty winds that are transient in nature like in gust fronts, thunderstorms or extreme events such as hurricanes, microbursts, and tornadoes. Time-domain methods present the opportunity for real-time health monitoring strategies that can easily be used with finite element methods for prediction of fatigue life or onset of flutter instability. The purpose of the proposed work is to develop a robust computational model to predict the loads, stresses and response of a wind turbine blade in operating and extreme wind conditions. The model can be used to inform health monitoring strategies for preventative maintenance and provide a realistic number of stress cycles that the blade will experience for fatigue life prediction procedures. To fill in the gaps in the existing knowledge and meet the overall goal of the proposed research, the following objectives were accomplished: (a) improve the existing aeroelastic (motion- and turbulence-induced) load models to predict the response of wind turbine blade airfoils to understand its behavior in turbulent wind, (b) understand, model and predict the response of wind turbine blades in transient or gusty wind, boundary-layer wind and incoherent wind over the span of the blade, (c) understand the effects of aero-structural coupling between the along-wind, cross-wind and torsional vibrations, and finally (d) develop a computational tool using the improved time-domain load model to predict the real-time load, stress distribution and response of a given wind turbine blade during operating and parked conditions subject to a specific wind environment both in a short and long term for damage, flutter and fatigue life predictions.

Life prediction and constitutive models for engine hot section anisotropic materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Swanson, G. A.; Linask, I.; Nissley, D. M.; Norris, P. P.; Meyer, T. G.; Walker, K. P.

1987-01-01

The results are presented of a program designed to develop life prediction and constitutive models for two coated single crystal alloys used in gas turbine airfoils. The two alloys are PWA 1480 and Alloy 185. The two oxidation resistant coatings are PWA 273, an aluminide coating, and PWA 286, an overlay NiCoCrAlY coating. To obtain constitutive and fatigue data, tests were conducted on uncoated and coated specimens loaded in the CH76 100 CH110 , CH76 110 CH110 , CH76 111 CH110 and CH76 123 CH110 crystallographic directions. Two constitutive models are being developed and evaluated for the single crystal materials: a micromechanic model based on crystallographic slip systems, and a macroscopic model which employs anisotropic tensors to model inelastic deformation anisotropy. Based on tests conducted on the overlay coating material, constitutive models for coatings also appear feasible and two initial models were selected. A life prediction approach was proposed for coated single crystal materials, including crack initiation either in the coating or in the substrate. The coating initiated failures dominated in the tests at load levels typical of gas turbine operation. Coating life was related to coating stress/strain history which was determined from specimen data using the constitutive models.

Rolling Bearing Life Prediction-Past, Present, and Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaretsky, E V; Poplawski, J. V.; Miller, C. R.

2000-01-01

Comparisons were made between the life prediction formulas of Lundberg and Palmgren, Ioannides and Harris, and Zaretsky and full-scale ball and roller bearing life data. The effect of Weibull slope on bearing life prediction was determined. Life factors are proposed to adjust the respective life formulas to the normalized statistical life distribution of each bearing type. The Lundberg-Palmgren method resulted in the most conservative life predictions compared to Ioannides and Harris, and Zaretsky methods which produced statistically similar results. Roller profile can have significant effects on bearing life prediction results. Roller edge loading can reduce life by as much as 98 percent. The resultant predicted life not only depends on the life equation used but on the Weibull slope assumed, the least variation occurring with the Zaretsky equation. The load-life exponent p of 10/3 used in the American National Standards Institute (ANSI)/American Bearing Manufacturers Association (ABMA)/International Organization for Standardization (ISO) standards is inconsistent with the majority roller bearings designed and used today.

Model-based prognostics for batteries which estimates useful life and uses a probability density function

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saha, Bhaskar (Inventor); Goebel, Kai F. (Inventor)

2012-01-01

This invention develops a mathematical model to describe battery behavior during individual discharge cycles as well as over its cycle life. The basis for the form of the model has been linked to the internal processes of the battery and validated using experimental data. Effects of temperature and load current have also been incorporated into the model. Subsequently, the model has been used in a Particle Filtering framework to make predictions of remaining useful life for individual discharge cycles as well as for cycle life. The prediction performance was found to be satisfactory as measured by performance metrics customized for prognostics for a sample case. The work presented here provides initial steps towards a comprehensive health management solution for energy storage devices.

Pool desiccation and developmental thresholds in the common frog, Rana temporaria.

PubMed

Lind, Martin I; Persbo, Frida; Johansson, Frank

2008-05-07

The developmental threshold is the minimum size or condition that a developing organism must have reached in order for a life-history transition to occur. Although developmental thresholds have been observed for many organisms, inter-population variation among natural populations has not been examined. Since isolated populations can be subjected to strong divergent selection, population divergence in developmental thresholds can be predicted if environmental conditions favour fast or slow developmental time in different populations. Amphibian metamorphosis is a well-studied life-history transition, and using a common garden approach we compared the development time and the developmental threshold of metamorphosis in four island populations of the common frog Rana temporaria: two populations originating from islands with only temporary breeding pools and two from islands with permanent pools. As predicted, tadpoles from time-constrained temporary pools had a genetically shorter development time than those from permanent pools. Furthermore, the variation in development time among females from temporary pools was low, consistent with the action of selection on rapid development in this environment. However, there were no clear differences in the developmental thresholds between the populations, indicating that the main response to life in a temporary pool is to shorten the development time.

The Adjustment of New Recruits to Military Life in the Chinese Army: The Longitudinal Predictive Power of MMPI-2

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Xiao, Lijun; Han, Jing; Han, Jian

2011-01-01

In this article, the authors present the findings of two studies analyzing new recruits' adjustment to army life in the Chinese military. In the first exploratory study, we developed a scale to measure new recruits' adjustment to military life, and found that new soldiers' adaptation could be divided into two distinct types: interpersonal…

An eco-physiological model of the impact of temperature on Aedes aegypti life history traits.

PubMed

Padmanabha, Harish; Correa, Fabio; Legros, Mathieu; Nijhout, H Fredrick; Lord, Cynthia; Lounibos, L Philip

2012-12-01

Physiological processes mediate the impact of ecological conditions on the life histories of insect vectors. For the dengue/chikungunya mosquito, Aedes aegypti, three life history traits that are critical to urban population dynamics and control are: size, development rate and starvation mortality. In this paper we make use of prior laboratory experiments on each of these traits at 2°C intervals between 20 and 30°C, in conjunction with eco-evolutionary theory and studies on A.aegypti physiology, in order to develop a conceptual and mathematical framework that can predict their thermal sensitivity. Our model of reserve dependent growth (RDG), which considers a potential tradeoff between the accumulation of reserves and structural biomass, was able to robustly predict laboratory observations, providing a qualitative improvement over the approach most commonly used in other A.aegypti models. RDG predictions of reduced size at higher temperatures, but increased reserves relative to size, are supported by the available evidence in Aedes spp. We offer the potentially general hypothesis that temperature-size patterns in mosquitoes are driven by a net benefit of finishing the growing stage with proportionally greater reserves relative to structure at warmer temperatures. By relating basic energy flows to three fundamental life history traits, we provide a mechanistic framework for A.aegypti development to which ecological complexity can be added. Ultimately, this could provide a framework for developing and field testing hypotheses on how processes such as climate variation, density dependent regulation, human behavior or control strategies may influence A.aegypti population dynamics and disease risk. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fatigue properties of JIS H3300 C1220 copper for strain life prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harun, Muhammad Faiz; Mohammad, Roslina

2018-05-01

The existing methods for estimating strain life parameters are dependent on the material's monotonic tensile properties. However, a few of these methods yield quite complicated expressions for calculating fatigue parameters, and are specific to certain groups of materials only. The Universal Slopes method, Modified Universal Slopes method, Uniform Material Law, the Hardness method, and Medians method are a few existing methods for predicting strain-life fatigue based on monotonic tensile material properties and hardness of material. In the present study, nine methods for estimating fatigue life and properties are applied on JIS H3300 C1220 copper to determine the best methods for strain life estimation of this ductile material. Experimental strain-life curves are compared to estimations obtained using each method. Muralidharan-Manson's Modified Universal Slopes method and Bäumel-Seeger's method for unalloyed and low-alloy steels are found to yield batter accuracy in estimating fatigue life with a deviation of less than 25%. However, the prediction of both methods only yield much better accuracy for a cycle of less than 1000 or for strain amplitudes of more than 1% and less than 6%. Manson's Original Universal Slopes method and Ong's Modified Four-Point Correlation method are found to predict the strain-life fatigue of copper with better accuracy for a high number of cycles of strain amplitudes of less than 1%. The differences between mechanical behavior during monotonic and cyclic loading and the complexity in deciding the coefficient in an equation are probably the reason for the lack of a reliable method for estimating fatigue behavior using the monotonic properties of a group of materials. It is therefore suggested that a differential approach and new expressions be developed to estimate the strain-life fatigue parameters for ductile materials such as copper.

Benchmark Tests for Stirling Convertor Heater Head Life Assessment Conducted

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krause, David L.; Halford, Gary R.; Bowman, Randy R.

2004-01-01

A new in-house test capability has been developed at the NASA Glenn Research Center, where a critical component of the Stirling Radioisotope Generator (SRG) is undergoing extensive testing to aid the development of analytical life prediction methodology and to experimentally aid in verification of the flight-design component's life. The new facility includes two test rigs that are performing creep testing of the SRG heater head pressure vessel test articles at design temperature and with wall stresses ranging from operating level to seven times that (see the following photograph).

Lifing of Engine Components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2005-01-01

The successful development of advanced aerospace engines depends greatly on the capabilities of high performance materials and structures. Advanced materials, such as nickel based single crystal alloys, metal foam, advanced copper alloys, and ceramics matrix composites, have been engineered to provide higher engine temperature and stress capabilities. Thermal barrier coatings have been developed to improve component durability and fuel efficiency, by reducing the substrate hot wall metal temperature and protecting against oxidation and blanching. However, these coatings are prone to oxidation and delamination failures. In order to implement the use of these materials in advanced engines, it is necessary to understand and model the evolution of damage of the metal substrate as well as the coating under actual engine conditions. The models and the understanding of material behavior are utilized in the development of a life prediction methodology for hot section components. The research activities were focused on determining the stress and strain fields in an engine environment under combined thermo-mechanical loads to develop life prediction methodologies consistent with the observed damage formation of the coating and the substrates.

The Individual Psychology of Alfred Adler: Toward an Adlerian Vocational Theory.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Watkins, C. Edward, Jr.

1984-01-01

Presents an Adlerian vocational theory with several hypotheses and corollaries regarding: (a) life style, (b) work as life task, (c) family atmosphere and relationships, and (d) early recollections. Develops predictive vocational statements and offers the resulting framework as a stimulant to generate further study of Adlerian vocational…

A test of the functional avoidance hypothesis in the development of overgeneral autobiographical memory.

PubMed

Hallford, D J; Austin, D W; Raes, F; Takano, K

2018-04-18

Overgeneral memory (OGM) refers to the failure to recall memories of specific personally experienced events, which occurs in various psychiatric disorders. One pathway through which OGM is theorized to develop is the avoidance of thinking of negative experiences, whereby cumulative avoidance may maladaptively generalize to autobiographical memory (AM) more broadly. We tested this, predicting that negative experiences would interact with avoidance to predict AM specificity. In Study 1 (N = 281), negative life events (over six months) and daily hassles (over one month) were not related to AM specificity, nor was avoidance, and no interaction was found. In Study 2 (N = 318), we revised our measurements and used an increased timeframe of 12 months for both negative life events and daily hassles. The results showed no interaction effect for negative life events, but they did show an interaction for daily hassles, whereby increased hassles and higher avoidance of thinking about them were associated with reduced AM specificity, independent of general cognitive avoidance and depressive symptoms. No evidence was found that cognitive avoidance or AM specificity moderated the effect of negative experiences on depressive symptoms. Our findings suggest that life events over 6-12 months are not associated with AM specificity, but chronic daily hassles over 12 months predict reduced AM specificity when individuals avoid thinking about them. The findings provide evidence for the functional-avoidance hypothesis of OGM development and future directions for longitudinal studies.

Thermal barrier coating life-prediction model development. Annual report no. 2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Strangman, T. E.; Neumann, J.; Liu, A.

1986-10-01

The program focuses on predicting the lives of two types of strain-tolerant and oxidation-resistant thermal barrier coating (TBC) systems that are produced by commercial coating suppliers to the gas turbine industry. The plasma-sprayed TBC system, composed of a low-pressure plasma-spray (LPPS) or an argon shrouded plasma-spray (ASPS) applied oxidation resistant NiCrAlY or (CoNiCrAlY) bond coating and an air-plasma-sprayed yttria partially stabilized zirconia insulative layer, is applied by both Chromalloy, Klock, and Union Carbide. The second type of TBS is applied by the electron beam-physical vapor deposition (EB-PVD) process by Temescal. The second year of the program was focused on specimenmore » procurement, TMC system characterization, nondestructive evaluation methods, life prediction model development, and TFE731 engine testing of thermal barrier coated blades. Materials testing is approaching completion. Thermomechanical characterization of the TBC systems, with toughness, and spalling strain tests, was completed. Thermochemical testing is approximately two-thirds complete. Preliminary materials life models for the bond coating oxidation and zirconia sintering failure modes were developed. Integration of these life models with airfoil component analysis methods is in progress. Testing of high pressure turbine blades coated with the program TBS systems is in progress in a TFE731 turbofan engine. Eddy current technology feasibility was established with respect to nondestructively measuring zirconia layer thickness of a TBC system.« less

Design of Critical Components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hendricks, Robert C.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.

2001-01-01

Critical component design is based on minimizing product failures that results in loss of life. Potential catastrophic failures are reduced to secondary failures where components removed for cause or operating time in the system. Issues of liability and cost of component removal become of paramount importance. Deterministic design with factors of safety and probabilistic design address but lack the essential characteristics for the design of critical components. In deterministic design and fabrication there are heuristic rules and safety factors developed over time for large sets of structural/material components. These factors did not come without cost. Many designs failed and many rules (codes) have standing committees to oversee their proper usage and enforcement. In probabilistic design, not only are failures a given, the failures are calculated; an element of risk is assumed based on empirical failure data for large classes of component operations. Failure of a class of components can be predicted, yet one can not predict when a specific component will fail. The analogy is to the life insurance industry where very careful statistics are book-kept on classes of individuals. For a specific class, life span can be predicted within statistical limits, yet life-span of a specific element of that class can not be predicted.

Episodic Life Stress and the Development of Overgeneral Autobiographical Memory to Positive Cues in Youth.

PubMed

Feurer, Cope; Woody, Mary L; Tsypes, Aliona; Burkhouse, Katie L; Champagne, Katelynn; Gibb, Brandon E

2018-02-15

Overgeneral autobiographical memory (OGM) has been established as a risk factor for depression in both youth and adults, but questions remain as to how OGM develops. Although theorists have proposed that the experience of stressful life events may contribute to the development of OGM, no studies have examined the impact of negative life events on prospective changes in OGM. The goal of the current study was to address this gap in the literature. Participants included 251 mothers and their biological children (aged 8-14 years old at the initial assessment). Using a multi-wave prospective design with assessments every 6 months for 2 years, we found that episodic life stress predicted prospective decreases in youths' autobiographical memory specificity to positive, but not negative, cues. This study supports theories proposing that negative life events may contribute to the development of OGM, but suggest that, in youth, the impact of life stress on OGM may be specific to positive rather than negative memories.

Corrugated steel culvert pipe deterioration : final report, August 2009.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-08-01

This research provides the basis for developing a comprehensive plan for inspection, cleaning, condition assessment and : prediction of remaining service life of CSCP (Corrugated Steel Culvert Pipe). Inspection frequency guidelines were developed : t...

Predicting Prognosis for the Conduct-Problem Boy: Can Family History Help?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Odgers, Candice L.; Milne, Barry J.; Caspi, Avshalom; Crump, Raewyn; Poulton, Richie; Moffitt, Terrie E.

2007-01-01

Objective: Many children with conduct disorder develop life-course persistent antisocial behavior; however, other children exhibit childhood-limited or adolescence-limited conduct disorder symptoms and escape poor adult outcomes. Prospective prediction of long-term prognosis in pediatric and adolescent clinical settings is difficult. Improved…

Incompatibility and Mental Fatigue

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Herzog, Thomas R.; Hayes, Lauren J.; Applin, Rebecca C.; Weatherly, Anna M.

2011-01-01

A straightforward prediction from attention restoration theory is that the level of incompatibility in a person's life should be positively correlated with that person's level of mental (or directed attention) fatigue. The authors tested this prediction by developing a new self-report measure of incompatibility in which they attempted to isolate…

Emergent multicellular life cycles in filamentous bacteria owing to density-dependent population dynamics.

PubMed

Rossetti, Valentina; Filippini, Manuela; Svercel, Miroslav; Barbour, A D; Bagheri, Homayoun C

2011-12-07

Filamentous bacteria are the oldest and simplest known multicellular life forms. By using computer simulations and experiments that address cell division in a filamentous context, we investigate some of the ecological factors that can lead to the emergence of a multicellular life cycle in filamentous life forms. The model predicts that if cell division and death rates are dependent on the density of cells in a population, a predictable cycle between short and long filament lengths is produced. During exponential growth, there will be a predominance of multicellular filaments, while at carrying capacity, the population converges to a predominance of short filaments and single cells. Model predictions are experimentally tested and confirmed in cultures of heterotrophic and phototrophic bacterial species. Furthermore, by developing a formulation of generation time in bacterial populations, it is shown that changes in generation time can alter length distributions. The theory predicts that given the same population growth curve and fitness, species with longer generation times have longer filaments during comparable population growth phases. Characterization of the environmental dependence of morphological properties such as length, and the number of cells per filament, helps in understanding the pre-existing conditions for the evolution of developmental cycles in simple multicellular organisms. Moreover, the theoretical prediction that strains with the same fitness can exhibit different lengths at comparable growth phases has important implications. It demonstrates that differences in fitness attributed to morphology are not the sole explanation for the evolution of life cycles dominated by multicellularity.

[Life cycle of the taiga tick ixodes persulcatus in taiga forests of the eastern Sayan Plateau].

PubMed

Korotkov, Iu S

2014-01-01

The Ixodes persulcatus life cycle has been studied in natural environments of taiga fo- rests in The Eastern Sayan Plateau (56 10' N, 91 30' E). Engorged larvae and nymphs de- velop with a morphogenetic diapause or without diapause, with ratio of these two ways of development for larvae and nymphs 77.25/22.75% and 43.43/56.57%, respectively. The hypothetic season hemipopulation consists of 34.5 +/- 4.5, 50.1 +/- 1.3, 13.2 +/- 4.0 n 2.2% of unfed imagoes, completing 3-year, 4-year, 5-year, and 6-year life cycles, respectively. Mean life span is 3.83 +/- 0.10 years per generation. The "life table" predicting the probability to complete life cycle through phases from egg to adult, was developed.

Psychosocial stress predicts abnormal glucose metabolism: the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle (AusDiab) study.

PubMed

Williams, Emily D; Magliano, Dianna J; Tapp, Robyn J; Oldenburg, Brian F; Shaw, Jonathan E

2013-08-01

The evidence supporting a relationship between stress and diabetes has been inconsistent. This study examined the effects of stress on abnormal glucose metabolism, using a population-based sample of 3,759, with normoglycemia at baseline, from the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle study. Perceived stress and stressful life events were measured at baseline, with health behavior and anthropometric information also collected. Oral glucose tolerance tests were undertaken at baseline and 5-year follow-up. The primary outcome was the development of abnormal glucose metabolism (impaired fasting glucose, impaired glucose tolerance, and type 2 diabetes), according to WHO 1999 criteria. Perceived stress predicted incident abnormal glucose metabolism in women but not men, after multivariate adjustment. Life events showed an inconsistent relationship with abnormal glucose metabolism. Perceived stress predicted abnormal glucose metabolism in women. Healthcare professionals should consider psychosocial adversity when assessing risk factor profiles for the development of diabetes.

Outcomes of Occupational Self-Efficacy in Older Workers

PubMed Central

Paggi, Michelle E.; Jopp, Daniela S.

2016-01-01

Because of the increasing number of older workers, it is important to develop models of work-related constructs for this population. The present article developed a model surrounding occupational self-efficacy, testing its relation to other factors (e.g., intrinsic job motivation), predictors (e.g., self-perceptions of aging), and outcomes (e.g., job satisfaction). Employed adults of ages 50 and older (n= 313) were recruited via organizations and social media sites. Study participants (M= 59.7, SD= 6.1, range = 50–78) volunteered to fill out an Internet survey. Occupational self-efficacy predicted job satisfaction, and intrinsic job motivation fully mediated this relationship. More negative self-perceptions of aging predicted poorer occupational self-efficacy. Occupational self-efficacy also predicted life satisfaction. Expected retirement age and job performance were unrelated to occupational self-efficacy. These findings may inform workplace interventions that seek to maintain or increase older worker job and life satisfaction. PMID:26394821

Validating a Model for Welding Induced Residual Stress Using High-Energy X-ray Diffraction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mach, J. C.; Budrow, C. J.; Pagan, D. C.; Ruff, J. P. C.; Park, J.-S.; Okasinski, J.; Beaudoin, A. J.; Miller, M. P.

2017-05-01

Integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) provides a pathway to advance performance in structures through the use of physically-based models to better understand how manufacturing processes influence product performance. As one particular challenge, consider that residual stresses induced in fabrication are pervasive and directly impact the life of structures. For ICME to be an effective strategy, it is essential that predictive capability be developed in conjunction with critical experiments. In the present work, simulation results from a multi-physics model for gas metal arc welding are evaluated through x-ray diffraction using synchrotron radiation. A test component was designed with intent to develop significant gradients in residual stress, be representative of real-world engineering application, yet remain tractable for finely spaced strain measurements with positioning equipment available at synchrotron facilities. The experimental validation lends confidence to model predictions, facilitating the explicit consideration of residual stress distribution in prediction of fatigue life.

Quality of life as a cancer nursing outcome variable.

PubMed

Padilla, G V; Grant, M M

1985-10-01

A reliable and valid multidimensional instrument for measuring quality of life in cancer patients has been developed. Furthermore, a model has been offered that describes how quality of life works as an outcome variable. Using this model, predictions were made of how nursing interventions may directly or indirectly impact on quality of life. Initial testing of the model using data from 135 colostomy patients showed how satisfaction with nursing care and personal control act as cognitive mediators of self-worth, which then impacts on dimensions of quality of life.

Aeroaging - A New Collaboration between Life Sciences Experts and Aerospace Engineers.

PubMed

Vellas, M; Fualdes, C; Morley, J E; Dray, C; Rodriguez-Manas, L; Meyer, A; Michel, L; Rolland, Y; Gourinat, Y

2017-01-01

An open discussion between experts from life sciences and aeronautics has been held in order to investigate how both area of research overlap and could be relevant to each other, precisely on the topic of aging. Similarities in aging processes and prediction methodologies have been identified between human aging and aircraft aging. Two axis of collaboration have been raised: 1) The identification of the determinants in Aircraft aging (structural aging). 2) The development of P4 Systems medicine inspired new methodologies in the predictive maintenance.

Multiaxial Fatigue Damage Parameter and Life Prediction without Any Additional Material Constants

PubMed Central

Yu, Zheng-Yong; Liu, Qiang; Liu, Yunhan

2017-01-01

Based on the critical plane approach, a simple and efficient multiaxial fatigue damage parameter with no additional material constants is proposed for life prediction under uniaxial/multiaxial proportional and/or non-proportional loadings for titanium alloy TC4 and nickel-based superalloy GH4169. Moreover, two modified Ince-Glinka fatigue damage parameters are put forward and evaluated under different load paths. Results show that the generalized strain amplitude model provides less accurate life predictions in the high cycle life regime and is better for life prediction in the low cycle life regime; however, the generalized strain energy model is relatively better for high cycle life prediction and is conservative for low cycle life prediction under multiaxial loadings. In addition, the Fatemi–Socie model is introduced for model comparison and its additional material parameter k is found to not be a constant and its usage is discussed. Finally, model comparison and prediction error analysis are used to illustrate the superiority of the proposed damage parameter in multiaxial fatigue life prediction of the two aviation alloys under various loadings. PMID:28792487

Multiaxial Fatigue Damage Parameter and Life Prediction without Any Additional Material Constants.

PubMed

Yu, Zheng-Yong; Zhu, Shun-Peng; Liu, Qiang; Liu, Yunhan

2017-08-09

Based on the critical plane approach, a simple and efficient multiaxial fatigue damage parameter with no additional material constants is proposed for life prediction under uniaxial/multiaxial proportional and/or non-proportional loadings for titanium alloy TC4 and nickel-based superalloy GH4169. Moreover, two modified Ince-Glinka fatigue damage parameters are put forward and evaluated under different load paths. Results show that the generalized strain amplitude model provides less accurate life predictions in the high cycle life regime and is better for life prediction in the low cycle life regime; however, the generalized strain energy model is relatively better for high cycle life prediction and is conservative for low cycle life prediction under multiaxial loadings. In addition, the Fatemi-Socie model is introduced for model comparison and its additional material parameter k is found to not be a constant and its usage is discussed. Finally, model comparison and prediction error analysis are used to illustrate the superiority of the proposed damage parameter in multiaxial fatigue life prediction of the two aviation alloys under various loadings.

Assessment of Predictable Productivity of Nurses Working in Kerman University of Medical Sciences' Teaching Hospitals via the Dimensions of Quality of Work Life.

PubMed

Borhani, Fariba; Arbabisarjou, Azizollah; Kianian, Toktam; Saber, Saman

2016-10-01

Despite the existence of a large community of nurses, specific mechanisms have not been developed yet to consider their needs and the quality of their work life. Moreover, few studies have been conducted to analyze the nature of nursing, nursing places or nurses' quality of work life. In this regard, the present study aimed to assess predictable productivity of nurses working in Kerman University of Medical Sciences' teaching hospitals via the dimensions of Quality of Work Life. The present descriptive-correlational study was conducted to assess predictable productivity of nurses via the dimensions of Quality of Work Life. The study's population consisted of all nurses working in different wards of teaching hospitals associated with Kerman University of Medical Sciences. Out of the whole population, 266 nurses were selected based on the simple random sampling method. To collect data, the questionnaires of 'Quality of Nursing Work Life' and 'Productivity' were used after confirming their reliability (test-retest) and content validity. Finally, the collected data were analyzed through the SPSS software (version 16). Although the quality of work life for nurses was average and their productivity was low but the results showed that quality of life is directly related to nurses' productivity. Quality of life and its dimensions are predictive factors in the in the nurses' productivity. It can conclude that by recognizing the nurses' quality of work life situation, it can realize this group productivity and their values to the efficiency of the health system. For the quality of working life improvement and increasing nurses' productivity more efforts are needed by authorities. The findings can be applied by managers of hospitals and nursing services along with head nurses to enhance the quality of health services and nursing profession in general.

Childhood life events, immune activation and the development of mood and anxiety disorders: the TRAILS study.

PubMed

Jonker, I; Rosmalen, J G M; Schoevers, R A

2017-05-02

The experience of childhood life events is associated with higher vulnerability to develop psychiatric disorders. One of the pathways suggested to lead to this vulnerability is activation of the immune system. The aim of this study is to find out whether the association between childhood life events and the development of mood and anxiety disorders is predicted by the activation of the immune system. This study was performed in TRAILS, a large prospective population cohort, from which a subgroup was selected (N=1084, 54.3% female, mean age 19.0 (s.d., 0.6)). Childhood life events before age 16 were assessed using questionnaires at age 12, 14, 16 and 19. Immune activation was assessed at age 16 by elevated high-sensitive C-reactive protein (hsCRP) and by levels of immunoglobulin G antibodies against the herpes viruses herpes simplex virus 1, cytomegalovirus and Epstein-Barr virus. At age 19, the presence of mood and anxiety disorders was determined using the World Health Organization Composite International Diagnostic Interview Version 3.0. Regression analyses were used to study the association between life events, the inflammatory markers and mental health. We found that childhood life events score was associated with risk of mood disorders (B=0.269, P<0.001) and anxiety disorders (B=0.129, P<0.001). Childhood life events score was marginally associated with elevated hsCRP (B=0.076, P=0.006), but not with the antibody levels. This was especially due to separation trauma (P=0.015) and sexual abuse (P=0.019). Associations lost significance after correcting for lifestyle factors such as body mass index and substance abuse (P=0.042). None of the inflammatory markers were associated with development of anxiety disorders or mood disorders. In conclusion, the life event scores predicted the development of anxiety disorders and mood disorders at age 19. Life event scores were associated with elevated hsCRP, which was partly explained by lifestyle factors. Elevated hsCRP was not associated with the development of psychiatric disorders at age 19.

Transient Reliability Analysis Capability Developed for CARES/Life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.

2001-01-01

The CARES/Life software developed at the NASA Glenn Research Center provides a general-purpose design tool that predicts the probability of the failure of a ceramic component as a function of its time in service. This award-winning software has been widely used by U.S. industry to establish the reliability and life of a brittle material (e.g., ceramic, intermetallic, and graphite) structures in a wide variety of 21st century applications.Present capabilities of the NASA CARES/Life code include probabilistic life prediction of ceramic components subjected to fast fracture, slow crack growth (stress corrosion), and cyclic fatigue failure modes. Currently, this code can compute the time-dependent reliability of ceramic structures subjected to simple time-dependent loading. For example, in slow crack growth failure conditions CARES/Life can handle sustained and linearly increasing time-dependent loads, whereas in cyclic fatigue applications various types of repetitive constant-amplitude loads can be accounted for. However, in real applications applied loads are rarely that simple but vary with time in more complex ways such as engine startup, shutdown, and dynamic and vibrational loads. In addition, when a given component is subjected to transient environmental and or thermal conditions, the material properties also vary with time. A methodology has now been developed to allow the CARES/Life computer code to perform reliability analysis of ceramic components undergoing transient thermal and mechanical loading. This means that CARES/Life will be able to analyze finite element models of ceramic components that simulate dynamic engine operating conditions. The methodology developed is generalized to account for material property variation (on strength distribution and fatigue) as a function of temperature. This allows CARES/Life to analyze components undergoing rapid temperature change in other words, components undergoing thermal shock. In addition, the capability has been developed to perform reliability analysis for components that undergo proof testing involving transient loads. This methodology was developed for environmentally assisted crack growth (crack growth as a function of time and loading), but it will be extended to account for cyclic fatigue (crack growth as a function of load cycles) as well.

Non-invasive prediction of hematocrit levels by portable visible and near-infrared spectrophotometer.

PubMed

Sakudo, Akikazu; Kato, Yukiko Hakariya; Kuratsune, Hirohiko; Ikuta, Kazuyoshi

2009-10-01

After blood donation, in some individuals having polycythemia, dehydration causes anemia. Although the hematocrit (Ht) level is closely related to anemia, the current method of measuring Ht is performed after blood drawing. Furthermore, the monitoring of Ht levels contributes to a healthy life. Therefore, a non-invasive test for Ht is warranted for the safe donation of blood and good quality of life. A non-invasive procedure for the prediction of hematocrit levels was developed on the basis of a chemometric analysis of visible and near-infrared (Vis-NIR) spectra of the thumbs using portable spectrophotometer. Transmittance spectra in the 600- to 1100-nm region from thumbs of Japanese volunteers were subjected to a partial least squares regression (PLSR) analysis and leave-out cross-validation to develop chemometric models for predicting Ht levels. Ht levels of masked samples predicted by this model from Vis-NIR spectra provided a coefficient of determination in prediction of 0.6349 with a standard error of prediction of 3.704% and a detection limit in prediction of 17.14%, indicating that the model is applicable for normal and abnormal value in Ht level. These results suggest portable Vis-NIR spectrophotometer to have potential for the non-invasive measurement of Ht levels with a combination of PLSR analysis.

Shelf-life prediction models for ready-to-eat fresh cut salads: Testing in real cold chain.

PubMed

Tsironi, Theofania; Dermesonlouoglou, Efimia; Giannoglou, Marianna; Gogou, Eleni; Katsaros, George; Taoukis, Petros

2017-01-02

The aim of the study was to develop and test the applicability of predictive models for shelf-life estimation of ready-to-eat (RTE) fresh cut salads in realistic distribution temperature conditions in the food supply chain. A systematic kinetic study of quality loss of RTE mixed salad (lollo rosso lettuce-40%, lollo verde lettuce-45%, rocket-15%) packed under modified atmospheres (3% O 2 , 10% CO 2 , 87% N 2 ) was conducted. Microbial population (total viable count, Pseudomonas spp., lactic acid bacteria), vitamin C, colour and texture were the measured quality parameters. Kinetic models for these indices were developed to determine the quality loss and calculate product remaining shelf-life (SL R ). Storage experiments were conducted at isothermal (2.5-15°C) and non-isothermal temperature conditions (T eff =7.8°C defined as the constant temperature that results in the same quality value as the variable temperature distribution) for validation purposes. Pseudomonas dominated spoilage, followed by browning and chemical changes. The end of shelf-life correlated with a Pseudomonas spp. level of 8 log(cfu/g), and 20% loss of the initial vitamin C content. The effect of temperature on these quality parameters was expressed by the Arrhenius equation; activation energy (E a ) value was 69.1 and 122.6kJ/mol for Pseudomonas spp. growth and vitamin C loss rates, respectively. Shelf-life prediction models were also validated in real cold chain conditions (including the stages of transport to and storage at retail distribution center, transport to and display at 7 retail stores, transport to and storage in domestic refrigerators). The quality level and SL R estimated after 2-3days of domestic storage (time of consumption) ranged between 1 and 8days at 4°C and was predicted within satisfactory statistical error by the kinetic models. T eff in the cold chain ranged between 3.7 and 8.3°C. Using the validated models, SL R of RTE fresh cut salad can be estimated at any point of the cold chain if the temperature history is known. Shelf-life models of validated applicability can serve as an effective tool for shelf-life assessment and the development of new products in the fresh produce food sector. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Deterioration, death and the evolution of reproductive restraint in late life.

PubMed

McNamara, John M; Houston, Alasdair I; Barta, Zoltan; Scheuerlein, Alexander; Fromhage, Lutz

2009-11-22

Explaining why organisms schedule reproduction over their lifetimes in the various ways that they do is an enduring challenge in biology. An influential theoretical prediction states that organisms should increasingly invest in reproduction as they approach the end of their life. An apparent mismatch of empirical data with this prediction has been attributed to age-related constraints on the ability to reproduce. Here we present a general framework for the evolution of age-related reproductive trajectories. Instead of characterizing an organism by its age, we characterize it by its physiological condition. We develop a common currency that if maximized at each time guarantees the whole life history is optimal. This currency integrates reproduction, mortality and changes in condition. We predict that under broad conditions it will be optimal for organisms to invest less in reproduction as they age, thus challenging traditional interpretations of age-related traits and renewing debate about the extent to which observed life histories are shaped by constraint versus adaptation. Our analysis gives a striking illustration of the differences between an age-based and a condition-based approach to life-history theory. It also provides a unified account of not only standard life-history models but of related models involving the allocation of limited resources.

Integrated Design Software Predicts the Creep Life of Monolithic Ceramic Components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1996-01-01

Significant improvements in propulsion and power generation for the next century will require revolutionary advances in high-temperature materials and structural design. Advanced ceramics are candidate materials for these elevated-temperature applications. As design protocols emerge for these material systems, designers must be aware of several innate features, including the degrading ability of ceramics to carry sustained load. Usually, time-dependent failure in ceramics occurs because of two different, delayedfailure mechanisms: slow crack growth and creep rupture. Slow crack growth initiates at a preexisting flaw and continues until a critical crack length is reached, causing catastrophic failure. Creep rupture, on the other hand, occurs because of bulk damage in the material: void nucleation and coalescence that eventually leads to macrocracks which then propagate to failure. Successful application of advanced ceramics depends on proper characterization of material behavior and the use of an appropriate design methodology. The life of a ceramic component can be predicted with the NASA Lewis Research Center's Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (CARES) integrated design programs. CARES/CREEP determines the expected life of a component under creep conditions, and CARES/LIFE predicts the component life due to fast fracture and subcritical crack growth. The previously developed CARES/LIFE program has been used in numerous industrial and Government applications.

Damage Tolerant Analysis of Cracked Al 2024-T3 Panels repaired with Single Boron/Epoxy Patch

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahajan, Akshay D.; Murthy, A. Ramachandra; Nanda Kumar, M. R.; Gopinath, Smitha

2018-06-01

It is known that damage tolerant analysis has two objectives, namely, remaining life prediction and residual strength evaluation. To achieve the these objectives, determination of accurate and reliable fracture parameter is very important. XFEM methodologies for fatigue and fracture analysis of cracked aluminium panels repaired with different patch shapes made of single boron/epoxy have been developed. Heaviside and asymptotic crack tip enrichment functions are employed to model the crack. XFEM formulations such as displacement field formulation and element stiffness matrix formulation are presented. Domain form of interaction integral is employed to determine Stress Intensity Factor of repaired cracked panels. Computed SIFs are incorporated in Paris crack growth model to predict the remaining fatigue life. The residual strength has been computed by using the remaining life approach, which accounts for both crack growth constants and no. of cycles to failure. From the various studies conducted, it is observed that repaired panels have significant effect on reduction of the SIF at the crack tip and hence residual strength as well as remaining life of the patched cracked panels are improved significantly. The predicted remaining life and residual strength will be useful for design of structures/components under fatigue loading.

Animals. Life Science in Action. Teacher's Manual and Workbook.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roderman, Winifred Ho; Booth, Gerald

The Science in Action series is designed to teach practical science concepts to special-needs students. It is intended to develop students' problem-solving skills by teaching them to observe, record, analyze, conclude, and predict. This document contains a student workbook which deals with basic principles of life science. Six separate units…

Fifth International Symposium on Liquid Space Propulsion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garcia, R. (Compiler)

2005-01-01

Contents include the fiollowing: Theme: Life-life Combustion Devices Technology. Technical Sessions: International Perspectives. System Level Effects. Component Level Processes. Material Considerations. Design Environments -- Predictions. Injector Design Technology. Design Environments -- Measurements. Panel Discussion: Views on future research and development needs and Symposium observations. Aquarium Welcome and Southern Belle Riverboat Recognition Banquet evening events.

The Effects of Depression and Stressful Life Events on the Development and Maintenance of Syndromal Social Anxiety: Sex and Age Differences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aune, Tore; Stiles, Tore C.

2009-01-01

This study assessed age and sex differences in the prevalence and incidence rates of syndromal social anxiety (SSA), as well as the predictive role of depressive symptoms and stressful life events on the development and persistence of SSA. A sample of 1,439 young people, between 11 and 14 years of age, was assessed twice within a 12-month…

External-environmental and internal-health early life predictors of adolescent development.

PubMed

Hartman, Sarah; Li, Zhi; Nettle, Daniel; Belsky, Jay

2017-12-01

A wealth of evidence documents associations between various aspects of the rearing environment and later development. Two evolutionary-inspired models advance explanations for why and how such early experiences shape later functioning: (a) the external-prediction model, which highlights the role of the early environment (e.g., parenting) in regulating children's development, and (b) the internal-prediction model, which emphasizes internal state (i.e., health) as the critical regulator. Thus, by using data from the NICHD Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development, the current project draws from both models by investigating whether the effect of the early environment on later adolescent functioning is subject to an indirect effect by internal-health variables. Results showed a significant indirect effect of internal health on the relation between the early environment and adolescent behavior. Specifically, early environmental adversity during the first 5 years of life predicted lower quality health during childhood, which then led to problematic adolescent functioning and earlier age of menarche for girls. In addition, for girls, early adversity predicted lower quality health that forecasted earlier age of menarche leading to increased adolescent risk taking. The discussion highlights the importance of integrating both internal and external models to further understand the developmental processes that effect adolescent behavior.

Lifespan Socioeconomic Context: Associations with Cognitive Functioning in Later Life.

PubMed

Scott, April B; Reed, Rebecca G; Garcia-Willingham, Natasha E; Lawrence, Karen A; Segerstrom, Suzanne C

2018-06-06

Early socioeconomic status (SES) correlates with later-life cognition. However, the effect of socioeconomic context (SEC), which reflects influences from broader ecological contexts, has not been examined. The present study developed a measure of SEC using lifetime residential addresses and examined SEC and residential mobility effects on later-life cognition. Older adults (N=117, Mage=75) reported addresses since birth. Latent SEC was constructed from census income, employment, and education (1920-2010) for each county and census year, extrapolated between census years. Controlling for current SES, SEC in childhood (ages 0-18) and adulthood (ages 19-60), with finer granulations in young adulthood (ages 19-39) and midlife (ages 40-60), predicted later-life cognition. Effects of residential mobility on later-life cognition were also examined. Higher childhood and adulthood SEC were associated with better Auditory Verbal Learning Test recognition (β=.24, p=.012) and immediate recall (β=.26, p=.008). Higher midlife SEC was associated with faster task switching (β=.26, p=.025) and better task switching efficiency (β=.27, p=.022). Higher residential mobility in childhood was associated with higher crystallized intelligence (β=.194, p=.040). Independent of current SES, childhood and adulthood SEC predicted later-life cognition, which may be sensitive to effects of social institutions and environmental health. SEC assessed across the lifespan, and related residential mobility information, may be important complements to SES in predicting later-life cognitive health.

Semen parameters can be predicted from environmental factors and lifestyle using artificial intelligence methods.

PubMed

Girela, Jose L; Gil, David; Johnsson, Magnus; Gomez-Torres, María José; De Juan, Joaquín

2013-04-01

Fertility rates have dramatically decreased in the last two decades, especially in men. It has been described that environmental factors as well as life habits may affect semen quality. In this paper we use artificial intelligence techniques in order to predict semen characteristics resulting from environmental factors, life habits, and health status, with these techniques constituting a possible decision support system that can help in the study of male fertility potential. A total of 123 young, healthy volunteers provided a semen sample that was analyzed according to the World Health Organization 2010 criteria. They also were asked to complete a validated questionnaire about life habits and health status. Sperm concentration and percentage of motile sperm were related to sociodemographic data, environmental factors, health status, and life habits in order to determine the predictive accuracy of a multilayer perceptron network, a type of artificial neural network. In conclusion, we have developed an artificial neural network that can predict the results of the semen analysis based on the data collected by the questionnaire. The semen parameter that is best predicted using this methodology is the sperm concentration. Although the accuracy for motility is slightly lower than that for concentration, it is possible to predict it with a significant degree of accuracy. This methodology can be a useful tool in early diagnosis of patients with seminal disorders or in the selection of candidates to become semen donors.

How do changes in parental investment influence development in echinoid echinoderms?

PubMed

Alcorn, Nicholas J; Allen, Jonathan D

2009-01-01

Understanding the relationship between egg size, development time, and juvenile size is critical to explaining patterns of life-history evolution in marine invertebrates. Currently there is conflicting information about the effects of changes in egg size on the life histories of echinoid echinoderms. We sought to resolve this conflict by manipulating egg size and food level during the development of two planktotrophic echinoid echinoderms: the green sea urchin, Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis and the sand dollar, Echinarachnius parma. Based on comparative datasets, we predicted that decreasing food availability and egg size would increase development time and reduce juvenile size. To test our prediction, blastomere separations were performed in both species at the two-cell stage to reduce egg volume by 50%, producing whole- and half-size larvae that were reared to metamorphosis under high or low food levels. Upon settlement, age at metamorphosis, juvenile size, spine number, and spine length were measured. As predicted, reducing egg size and food availability significantly increased age at metamorphosis and reduced juvenile quality. Along with previous egg size manipulations in other echinoids, this study suggests that the relationship between egg size, development time, and juvenile size is strongly dependent upon the initial size of the egg.

NASA Langley developments in response calculations needed for failure and life prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Housner, Jerrold M.

1993-01-01

NASA Langley developments in response calculations needed for failure and life predictions are discussed. Topics covered include: structural failure analysis in concurrent engineering; accuracy of independent regional modeling demonstrated on classical example; functional interface method accurately joins incompatible finite element models; interface method for insertion of local detail modeling extended to curve pressurized fuselage window panel; interface concept for joining structural regions; motivation for coupled 2D-3D analysis; compression panel with discontinuous stiffener coupled 2D-3D model and axial surface strains at the middle of the hat stiffener; use of adaptive refinement with multiple methods; adaptive mesh refinement; and studies on quantity effect of bow-type initial imperfections on reliability of stiffened panels.

Isothermal life prediction of composite lamina using a damage mechanics approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abuelfoutouh, Nader M.; Verrilli, Michael J.; Halford, Gary R.

1989-01-01

A method for predicting isothermal plastic fatigue life of a composite lamina is presented in which both fibers and matrix are isotropic materials. In general, the fatigue resistances of the matrix, fibers, and interfacial material must be known in order to predict composite fatigue life. Composite fatigue life is predicted using only the matrix fatigue resistance due to inelasticity micromechanisms. The effect of the fiber orientation on loading direction is accounted for while predicting composite life. The application is currently limited to isothermal cases where the internal thermal stresses that might arise from thermal strain mismatch between fibers and matrix are negligible. The theory is formulated to predict the fatigue life of a composite lamina under either load or strain control. It is applied currently to predict the life of tungsten-copper composite lamina at 260 C under tension-tension load control. The calculated life of the lamina is in good agreement with available composite low cycle fatigue data.

Creep-fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moreno, V.

1982-01-01

The objectives of this program are the investigation of fundamental approaches to high temperature crack initiation life prediction, identification of specific modeling strategies and the development of specific models for component relevant loading conditions. A survey of the hot section material/coating systems used throughout the gas turbine industry is included. Two material/coating systems will be identified for the program. The material/coating system designated as the base system shall be used throughout Tasks 1-12. The alternate material/coating system will be used only in Task 12 for further evaluation of the models developed on the base material. In Task II, candidate life prediction approaches will be screened based on a set of criteria that includes experience of the approaches within the literature, correlation with isothermal data generated on the base material, and judgements relative to the applicability of the approach for the complex cycles to be considered in the option program. The two most promising approaches will be identified. Task 3 further evaluates the best approach using additional base material fatigue testing including verification tests. Task 4 consists of technical, schedular, financial and all other reporting requirements in accordance with the Reports of Work clause.

Fatigue criterion to system design, life and reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaretsky, E. V.

1985-01-01

A generalized methodology to structural life prediction, design, and reliability based upon a fatigue criterion is advanced. The life prediction methodology is based in part on work of W. Weibull and G. Lundberg and A. Palmgren. The approach incorporates the computed life of elemental stress volumes of a complex machine element to predict system life. The results of coupon fatigue testing can be incorporated into the analysis allowing for life prediction and component or structural renewal rates with reasonable statistical certainty.

Planner-Based Control of Advanced Life Support Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Muscettola, Nicola; Kortenkamp, David; Fry, Chuck; Bell, Scott

2005-01-01

The paper describes an approach to the integration of qualitative and quantitative modeling techniques for advanced life support (ALS) systems. Developing reliable control strategies that scale up to fully integrated life support systems requires augmenting quantitative models and control algorithms with the abstractions provided by qualitative, symbolic models and their associated high-level control strategies. This will allow for effective management of the combinatorics due to the integration of a large number of ALS subsystems. By focusing control actions at different levels of detail and reactivity we can use faster: simpler responses at the lowest level and predictive but complex responses at the higher levels of abstraction. In particular, methods from model-based planning and scheduling can provide effective resource management over long time periods. We describe reference implementation of an advanced control system using the IDEA control architecture developed at NASA Ames Research Center. IDEA uses planning/scheduling as the sole reasoning method for predictive and reactive closed loop control. We describe preliminary experiments in planner-based control of ALS carried out on an integrated ALS simulation developed at NASA Johnson Space Center.

Making predictions skill level analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katarína, Krišková; Marián, Kireš

2017-01-01

The current trend in the education is focused on skills that are cross-subject and have a great importance for the pupil future life. Pupils should acquire different types of skills during their education to be prepared for future careers and life in the 21st century. Physics as a subject offers many opportunities for pupils' skills development. One of the skills that are expected to be developed in physics and also in other sciences is making predictions. The prediction, in the meaning of the argument about what may happen in the future, is an integral part of the empirical cognition, in which students confront existing knowledge and experience with new, hitherto unknown and surprising phenomena. The extent of the skill is the formulation of hypotheses, which is required in the upper secondary physics education. In the contribution, the prediction skill is specified and its eventual levels are classified. Authors focus on the tools for skill level determination based on the analysis of pupils` worksheets. Worksheets are the part of the educational activities conducted within the Inquiry Science Laboratory Steelpark. Based on the formulation of pupils' prediction the pupils thinking can be seen and their understanding of the topic, as well as preconceptions and misconceptions.

A Microstructure-Based Time-Dependent Crack Growth Model for Life and Reliability Prediction of Turbopropulsion Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Kwai S.; Enright, Michael P.; Moody, Jonathan; Fitch, Simeon H. K.

2014-01-01

The objective of this investigation was to develop an innovative methodology for life and reliability prediction of hot-section components in advanced turbopropulsion systems. A set of generic microstructure-based time-dependent crack growth (TDCG) models was developed and used to assess the sources of material variability due to microstructure and material parameters such as grain size, activation energy, and crack growth threshold for TDCG. A comparison of model predictions and experimental data obtained in air and in vacuum suggests that oxidation is responsible for higher crack growth rates at high temperatures, low frequencies, and long dwell times, but oxidation can also induce higher crack growth thresholds (Δ K th or K th) under certain conditions. Using the enhanced risk analysis tool and material constants calibrated to IN 718 data, the effect of TDCG on the risk of fracture in turboengine components was demonstrated for a generic rotor design and a realistic mission profile using the DARWIN® probabilistic life-prediction code. The results of this investigation confirmed that TDCG and cycle-dependent crack growth in IN 718 can be treated by a simple summation of the crack increments over a mission. For the temperatures considered, TDCG in IN 718 can be considered as a K-controlled or a diffusion-controlled oxidation-induced degradation process. This methodology provides a pathway for evaluating microstructural effects on multiple damage modes in hot-section components.

Environment assisted degradation mechanisms in advanced light metals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gangloff, Richard P.; Stoner, Glenn E.; Swanson, Robert E.

1988-01-01

The general goals of the research program are to characterize alloy behavior quantitatively and to develop predictive mechanisms for environmental failure modes. Successes in this regard will provide the basis for metallurgical optimization of alloy performance, for chemical control of aggressive environments, and for engineering life prediction with damage tolerance and long term reliability.

Probabilistic framework for product design optimization and risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keski-Rahkonen, J. K.

2018-05-01

Probabilistic methods have gradually gained ground within engineering practices but currently it is still the industry standard to use deterministic safety margin approaches to dimensioning components and qualitative methods to manage product risks. These methods are suitable for baseline design work but quantitative risk management and product reliability optimization require more advanced predictive approaches. Ample research has been published on how to predict failure probabilities for mechanical components and furthermore to optimize reliability through life cycle cost analysis. This paper reviews the literature for existing methods and tries to harness their best features and simplify the process to be applicable in practical engineering work. Recommended process applies Monte Carlo method on top of load-resistance models to estimate failure probabilities. Furthermore, it adds on existing literature by introducing a practical framework to use probabilistic models in quantitative risk management and product life cycle costs optimization. The main focus is on mechanical failure modes due to the well-developed methods used to predict these types of failures. However, the same framework can be applied on any type of failure mode as long as predictive models can be developed.

Development of an improved method of consolidating fatigue life data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leis, B. N.; Sampath, S. G.

1978-01-01

A fatigue data consolidation model that incorporates recent advances in life prediction methodology was developed. A combined analytic and experimental study of fatigue of notched 2024-T3 aluminum alloy under constant amplitude loading was carried out. Because few systematic and complete data sets for 2024-T3 were available in the program generated data for fatigue crack initiation and separation failure for both zero and nonzero mean stresses. Consolidations of these data are presented.

Profiles of Observed Infant Anger Predict Preschool Behavior Problems: Moderation by Life Stress

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brooker, Rebecca J.; Buss, Kristin A.; Lemery-Chalfant, Kathryn; Aksan, Nazan; Davidson, Richard J.; Goldsmith, H. Hill

2014-01-01

Using both traditional composites and novel profiles of anger, we examined associations between infant anger and preschool behavior problems in a large, longitudinal data set (N = 966). We also tested the role of life stress as a moderator of the link between early anger and the development of behavior problems. Although traditional measures of…

The evolution of predictive adaptive responses in human life history

PubMed Central

Nettle, Daniel; Frankenhuis, Willem E.; Rickard, Ian J.

2013-01-01

Many studies in humans have shown that adverse experience in early life is associated with accelerated reproductive timing, and there is comparative evidence for similar effects in other animals. There are two different classes of adaptive explanation for associations between early-life adversity and accelerated reproduction, both based on the idea of predictive adaptive responses (PARs). According to external PAR hypotheses, early-life adversity provides a ‘weather forecast’ of the environmental conditions into which the individual will mature, and it is adaptive for the individual to develop an appropriate phenotype for this anticipated environment. In internal PAR hypotheses, early-life adversity has a lasting negative impact on the individual's somatic state, such that her health is likely to fail more rapidly as she gets older, and there is an advantage to adjusting her reproductive schedule accordingly. We use a model of fluctuating environments to derive evolveability conditions for acceleration of reproductive timing in response to early-life adversity in a long-lived organism. For acceleration to evolve via the external PAR process, early-life cues must have a high degree of validity and the level of annual autocorrelation in the individual's environment must be almost perfect. For acceleration to evolve via the internal PAR process requires that early-life experience must determine a significant fraction of the variance in survival prospects in adulthood. The two processes are not mutually exclusive, and mechanisms for calibrating reproductive timing on the basis of early experience could evolve through a combination of the predictive value of early-life adversity for the later environment and its negative impact on somatic state. PMID:23843395

Shelf-life modeling of bakery products by using oxidation indices.

PubMed

Calligaris, Sonia; Manzocco, Lara; Kravina, Giuditta; Nicoli, Maria Cristina

2007-03-07

The aim of this work was to develop a shelf-life prediction model of lipid-containing bakery products. To this purpose (i) the temperature dependence of the oxidation rate of bakery products was modeled, taking into account the changes in lipid physical state; (ii) the acceptance limits were assessed by sensory analysis; and (iii) the relationship between chemical oxidation index and acceptance limit was evaluated. Results highlight that the peroxide number, the changes of which are linearly related to consumer acceptability, is a representative index of the quality depletion of biscuits during their shelf life. In addition, the evolution of peroxides can be predicted by a modified Arrhenius equation accounting for the changes in the physical state of biscuit fat. Knowledge of the relationship between peroxides and sensory acceptability together with the temperature dependence of peroxide formation allows a mathematical model to be set up to simply and quickly calculate the shelf life of biscuits.

Fracture mechanics approach to estimate fatigue lives of welded lap-shear specimens

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lam, Poh -Sang; Pan, Jwo

A full range of stress intensity factor solutions for a kinked crack with finite length is developed as a function of weld width and the sheet thickness. When used with the main crack solutions (global stress intensity factors) in terms of the applied load and the specimen geometric parameters, the fatigue lived of the kinked crack can be estimated for the laser-welded lap-shear specimens. The predicted curve for the load range-fatigue life passes through the cluster of experimental data and is in good agreement. A classical solution associated with an infinitesimal kink is also employed. Furthermore, its life prediction tendsmore » to overestimate the actual fatigue life. In addition, the traditional fatigue life estimation based on structural stress is performed for completeness. As a result, this non-fracture mechanics approach only agrees well with the experimental data under high cyclic load conditions.« less

Fracture mechanics approach to estimate fatigue lives of welded lap-shear specimens

DOE PAGES

Lam, Poh -Sang; Pan, Jwo

2015-06-29

A full range of stress intensity factor solutions for a kinked crack with finite length is developed as a function of weld width and the sheet thickness. When used with the main crack solutions (global stress intensity factors) in terms of the applied load and the specimen geometric parameters, the fatigue lived of the kinked crack can be estimated for the laser-welded lap-shear specimens. The predicted curve for the load range-fatigue life passes through the cluster of experimental data and is in good agreement. A classical solution associated with an infinitesimal kink is also employed. Furthermore, its life prediction tendsmore » to overestimate the actual fatigue life. In addition, the traditional fatigue life estimation based on structural stress is performed for completeness. As a result, this non-fracture mechanics approach only agrees well with the experimental data under high cyclic load conditions.« less

A Study on Re-entry Predictions of Uncontrolled Space Objects for Space Situational Awareness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Eun-Jung; Cho, Sungki; Lee, Deok-Jin; Kim, Siwoo; Jo, Jung Hyun

2017-12-01

The key risk analysis technologies for the re-entry of space objects into Earth’s atmosphere are divided into four categories: cataloguing and databases of the re-entry of space objects, lifetime and re-entry trajectory predictions, break-up models after re-entry and multiple debris distribution predictions, and ground impact probability models. In this study, we focused on re- entry prediction, including orbital lifetime assessments, for space situational awareness systems. Re-entry predictions are very difficult and are affected by various sources of uncertainty. In particular, during uncontrolled re-entry, large spacecraft may break into several pieces of debris, and the surviving fragments can be a significant hazard for persons and properties on the ground. In recent years, specific methods and procedures have been developed to provide clear information for predicting and analyzing the re-entry of space objects and for ground-risk assessments. Representative tools include object reentry survival analysis tool (ORSAT) and debris assessment software (DAS) developed by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), spacecraft atmospheric re-entry and aerothermal break-up (SCARAB) and debris risk assessment and mitigation analysis (DRAMA) developed by European Space Agency (ESA), and semi-analytic tool for end of life analysis (STELA) developed by Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales (CNES). In this study, various surveys of existing re-entry space objects are reviewed, and an efficient re-entry prediction technique is suggested based on STELA, the life-cycle analysis tool for satellites, and DRAMA, a re-entry analysis tool. To verify the proposed method, the re-entry of the Tiangong-1 Space Lab, which is expected to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere shortly, was simulated. Eventually, these results will provide a basis for space situational awareness risk analyses of the re-entry of space objects.

Transcriptomic and macroevolutionary evidence for phenotypic uncoupling between frog life history phases

PubMed Central

Wollenberg Valero, Katharina C.; Garcia-Porta, Joan; Rodríguez, Ariel; Arias, Mónica; Shah, Abhijeet; Randrianiaina, Roger Daniel; Brown, Jason L.; Glaw, Frank; Amat, Felix; Künzel, Sven; Metzler, Dirk; Isokpehi, Raphael D.; Vences, Miguel

2017-01-01

Anuran amphibians undergo major morphological transitions during development, but the contribution of their markedly different life-history phases to macroevolution has rarely been analysed. Here we generate testable predictions for coupling versus uncoupling of phenotypic evolution of tadpole and adult life-history phases, and for the underlying expression of genes related to morphological feature formation. We test these predictions by combining evidence from gene expression in two distantly related frogs, Xenopus laevis and Mantidactylus betsileanus, with patterns of morphological evolution in the entire radiation of Madagascan mantellid frogs. Genes linked to morphological structure formation are expressed in a highly phase-specific pattern, suggesting uncoupling of phenotypic evolution across life-history phases. This gene expression pattern agrees with uncoupled rates of trait evolution among life-history phases in the mantellids, which we show to have undergone an adaptive radiation. Our results validate a prevalence of uncoupling in the evolution of tadpole and adult phenotypes of frogs. PMID:28504275

Calculation of thermomechanical fatigue life based on isothermal behavior

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halford, Gary R.; Saltsman, James F.

1987-01-01

The isothermal and thermomechanical fatigue (TMF) crack initiation response of a hypothetical material was analyzed. Expected thermomechanical behavior was evaluated numerically based on simple, isothermal, cyclic stress-strain - time characteristics and on strainrange versus cyclic life relations that have been assigned to the material. The attempt was made to establish basic minimum requirements for the development of a physically accurate TMF life-prediction model. A worthy method must be able to deal with the simplest of conditions: that is, those for which thermal cycling, per se, introduces no damage mechanisms other than those found in isothermal behavior. Under these assumed conditions, the TMF life should be obtained uniquely from known isothermal behavior. The ramifications of making more complex assumptions will be dealt with in future studies. Although analyses are only in their early stages, considerable insight has been gained in understanding the characteristics of several existing high-temperature life-prediction methods. The present work indicates that the most viable damage parameter is based on the inelastic strainrange.

The role of disability self-concept in adaptation to congenital or acquired disability.

PubMed

Bogart, Kathleen R

2014-02-01

Current theories of adaptation to disability do not address differences in adaptation to congenital or acquired disability. Although people with congenital disabilities are generally assumed to be better adapted than people with acquired disabilities, few studies have tested this, and even fewer have attempted to explain the mechanisms behind these differences. This study tested the proposition that whether a disability is congenital or acquired plays an important role in the development of the disability self-concept (consisting of disability identity and disability self-efficacy), which in turn, affects satisfaction with life. It was predicted that disability self-concept would be better developed among people with congenital, compared with acquired disabilities, predicting greater satisfaction with life in those with acquired conditions. 226 participants with congenital and acquired mobility disabilities completed a cross-sectional online questionnaire measuring satisfaction with life, self-esteem, disability identity, disability self-efficacy, and demographic information. Self-esteem, disability identity, disability self-efficacy, and income were significant predictors of satisfaction with life. Congenital onset predicted higher satisfaction with life; disability identity and disability self-efficacy, but not self-esteem, partially mediated the relationship. Findings highlight the distinction between adaptation to congenital versus acquired disability and the importance of disability self-concept, which are underresearched constructs. Results suggest that rather than attempting to "normalize" individuals with disabilities, health care professionals should foster their disability self-concept. Possible ways to improve disability self-concept are discussed, such as involvement in the disability community and disability pride. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Evaluation of methods for determining hardware projected life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1971-01-01

An investigation of existing methods of predicting hardware life is summarized by reviewing programs having long life requirements, current research efforts on long life problems, and technical papers reporting work on life predicting techniques. The results indicate that there are no accurate quantitative means to predict hardware life for system level hardware. The effectiveness of test programs and the cause of hardware failures is considered.

On the use of colour reflectivity plots to monitor the structure of the troposphere and stratosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rottger, J.; Fu, I. J.; Kuo, F. S.; Liu, C. H.; Chao, J. K.

1986-01-01

The radar reflectivity, defined as the range squared corrected power of VHF radar echoes, can be used to monitor and study the temporal development of inversion layer, frontal boundaries and convective turbulence. From typical featurs of upward or downward motion of reflectivity structures, the advection/convection of cold and warm air can be predicted. High resolution color plots appear to be useful to trace and to study the life history of these structures, particularly their persistency, descent and ascent. These displays allow an immediate determination of the tropopause height as well as the determination of the tropopause structure. The life history of warm fronts, cold fronts, and occlusions can be traced, and these reflectivity plots allow detection of even very weak events which cannot be seen in the traditional meteorological data sets. The life history of convective turbulence, particular evolving from the planetary boundary layer, can be tracked quite easily. Its development into strong convection reaching the middle troposphere can be followed and predicted.

Preclinical models used for immunogenicity prediction of therapeutic proteins.

PubMed

Brinks, Vera; Weinbuch, Daniel; Baker, Matthew; Dean, Yann; Stas, Philippe; Kostense, Stefan; Rup, Bonita; Jiskoot, Wim

2013-07-01

All therapeutic proteins are potentially immunogenic. Antibodies formed against these drugs can decrease efficacy, leading to drastically increased therapeutic costs and in rare cases to serious and sometimes life threatening side-effects. Many efforts are therefore undertaken to develop therapeutic proteins with minimal immunogenicity. For this, immunogenicity prediction of candidate drugs during early drug development is essential. Several in silico, in vitro and in vivo models are used to predict immunogenicity of drug leads, to modify potentially immunogenic properties and to continue development of drug candidates with expected low immunogenicity. Despite the extensive use of these predictive models, their actual predictive value varies. Important reasons for this uncertainty are the limited/insufficient knowledge on the immune mechanisms underlying immunogenicity of therapeutic proteins, the fact that different predictive models explore different components of the immune system and the lack of an integrated clinical validation. In this review, we discuss the predictive models in use, summarize aspects of immunogenicity that these models predict and explore the merits and the limitations of each of the models.

Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) for Predicting Annual Maximum and Annual Maximum Moving-Average Concentrations of Atrazine in Streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stone, Wesley W.; Gilliom, Robert J.; Crawford, Charles G.

2008-01-01

Regression models were developed for predicting annual maximum and selected annual maximum moving-average concentrations of atrazine in streams using the Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) methodology developed by the National Water-Quality Assessment Program (NAWQA) of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The current effort builds on the original WARP models, which were based on the annual mean and selected percentiles of the annual frequency distribution of atrazine concentrations. Estimates of annual maximum and annual maximum moving-average concentrations for selected durations are needed to characterize the levels of atrazine and other pesticides for comparison to specific water-quality benchmarks for evaluation of potential concerns regarding human health or aquatic life. Separate regression models were derived for the annual maximum and annual maximum 21-day, 60-day, and 90-day moving-average concentrations. Development of the regression models used the same explanatory variables, transformations, model development data, model validation data, and regression methods as those used in the original development of WARP. The models accounted for 72 to 75 percent of the variability in the concentration statistics among the 112 sampling sites used for model development. Predicted concentration statistics from the four models were within a factor of 10 of the observed concentration statistics for most of the model development and validation sites. Overall, performance of the models for the development and validation sites supports the application of the WARP models for predicting annual maximum and selected annual maximum moving-average atrazine concentration in streams and provides a framework to interpret the predictions in terms of uncertainty. For streams with inadequate direct measurements of atrazine concentrations, the WARP model predictions for the annual maximum and the annual maximum moving-average atrazine concentrations can be used to characterize the probable levels of atrazine for comparison to specific water-quality benchmarks. Sites with a high probability of exceeding a benchmark for human health or aquatic life can be prioritized for monitoring.

Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) models for predicting stream concentrations of multiple pesticides

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stone, Wesley W.; Crawford, Charles G.; Gilliom, Robert J.

2013-01-01

Watershed Regressions for Pesticides for multiple pesticides (WARP-MP) are statistical models developed to predict concentration statistics for a wide range of pesticides in unmonitored streams. The WARP-MP models use the national atrazine WARP models in conjunction with an adjustment factor for each additional pesticide. The WARP-MP models perform best for pesticides with application timing and methods similar to those used with atrazine. For other pesticides, WARP-MP models tend to overpredict concentration statistics for the model development sites. For WARP and WARP-MP, the less-than-ideal sampling frequency for the model development sites leads to underestimation of the shorter-duration concentration; hence, the WARP models tend to underpredict 4- and 21-d maximum moving-average concentrations, with median errors ranging from 9 to 38% As a result of this sampling bias, pesticides that performed well with the model development sites are expected to have predictions that are biased low for these shorter-duration concentration statistics. The overprediction by WARP-MP apparent for some of the pesticides is variably offset by underestimation of the model development concentration statistics. Of the 112 pesticides used in the WARP-MP application to stream segments nationwide, 25 were predicted to have concentration statistics with a 50% or greater probability of exceeding one or more aquatic life benchmarks in one or more stream segments. Geographically, many of the modeled streams in the Corn Belt Region were predicted to have one or more pesticides that exceeded an aquatic life benchmark during 2009, indicating the potential vulnerability of streams in this region.

Quality of life of French Canadian parents raising a child with autism spectrum disorder and effects of psychosocial factors.

PubMed

Cappe, Émilie; Poirier, Nathalie; Sankey, Carol; Belzil, Andréa; Dionne, Carmen

2018-04-01

This study aimed to investigate the quality of life of parents of a child with autism spectrum disorder in Quebec. Seventy-seven participants completed a questionnaire with socio-biographic information and five self-assessed scales, to measure perceived stress, social support and control, coping strategies, and quality of life. Perception of their child's autonomy level, of the severity of the disorder, of the family's income, as well as changes in their professional or familial organization influenced parents' quality of life. Perceiving their situation as a threat predicted poor quality of life, whereas satisfaction of social support predicted good quality of life. In addition, parents who used problem solving and support-seeking coping strategies had a better relationship with their child, whereas those who used more emotion-centered coping strategies struggled. Lastly, parents who felt they had the power to contribute to their child's development were more satisfied and less disturbed. Beyond the parents' actual situation, our results underscore the importance of paying attention to their own perception of the situation in order to provide them with appropriate support.

A Relevance Vector Machine-Based Approach with Application to Oil Sand Pump Prognostics

PubMed Central

Hu, Jinfei; Tse, Peter W.

2013-01-01

Oil sand pumps are widely used in the mining industry for the delivery of mixtures of abrasive solids and liquids. Because they operate under highly adverse conditions, these pumps usually experience significant wear. Consequently, equipment owners are quite often forced to invest substantially in system maintenance to avoid unscheduled downtime. In this study, an approach combining relevance vector machines (RVMs) with a sum of two exponential functions was developed to predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of field pump impellers. To handle field vibration data, a novel feature extracting process was proposed to arrive at a feature varying with the development of damage in the pump impellers. A case study involving two field datasets demonstrated the effectiveness of the developed method. Compared with standalone exponential fitting, the proposed RVM-based model was much better able to predict the remaining useful life of pump impellers. PMID:24051527

Empirical modeling of environment-enhanced fatigue crack propagation in structural alloys for component life prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richey, Edward, III

1995-01-01

This research aims to develop the methods and understanding needed to incorporate time and loading variable dependent environmental effects on fatigue crack propagation (FCP) into computerized fatigue life prediction codes such as NASA FLAGRO (NASGRO). In particular, the effect of loading frequency on FCP rates in alpha + beta titanium alloys exposed to an aqueous chloride solution is investigated. The approach couples empirical modeling of environmental FCP with corrosion fatigue experiments. Three different computer models have been developed and incorporated in the DOS executable program. UVAFAS. A multiple power law model is available, and can fit a set of fatigue data to a multiple power law equation. A model has also been developed which implements the Wei and Landes linear superposition model, as well as an interpolative model which can be utilized to interpolate trends in fatigue behavior based on changes in loading characteristics (stress ratio, frequency, and hold times).

A relevance vector machine-based approach with application to oil sand pump prognostics.

PubMed

Hu, Jinfei; Tse, Peter W

2013-09-18

Oil sand pumps are widely used in the mining industry for the delivery of mixtures of abrasive solids and liquids. Because they operate under highly adverse conditions, these pumps usually experience significant wear. Consequently, equipment owners are quite often forced to invest substantially in system maintenance to avoid unscheduled downtime. In this study, an approach combining relevance vector machines (RVMs) with a sum of two exponential functions was developed to predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of field pump impellers. To handle field vibration data, a novel feature extracting process was proposed to arrive at a feature varying with the development of damage in the pump impellers. A case study involving two field datasets demonstrated the effectiveness of the developed method. Compared with standalone exponential fitting, the proposed RVM-based model was much better able to predict the remaining useful life of pump impellers.

A method for predicting the fatigue life of pre-corroded 2024-T3 aluminum from breaking load tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gruenberg, Karl Martin

Characterization of material properties is necessary for design purposes and has been a topic of research for many years. Over the last several decades, much progress has been made in identifying metrics to describe fracture mechanics properties and developing procedures to measure the appropriate values. However, in the context of design, there has not been as much success in quantifying the susceptibility of a material to corrosion damage and its subsequent impact on material behavior in the framework of fracture mechanics. A natural next step in understanding the effects of corrosion damage was to develop a link between standard material test procedures and fatigue life in the presence of corrosion. Simply stated, the goal of this investigation was to formulate a cheaper and quicker method for assessing the consequences of corrosion on remaining fatigue life. For this study, breaking load specimens and fatigue specimens of a single nominal gage (0.063″) of aluminum alloy 2024-T3 were exposed to three levels of corrosion. The breaking load specimens were taken from three different material lots, and the fatigue tests were carried out at three stress levels. All failed specimens, both breaking load and fatigue specimens, were examined to characterize the damage state(s) and failure mechanism(s). Correlations between breaking load results and fatigue life results in the presence of corrosion damage were developed using a fracture mechanics foundation and the observed mechanisms of failure. Where breaking load tests showed a decrease in strength due to increased corrosion exposure, the corresponding set of fatigue tests showed a decrease in life. And where breaking load tests from different specimen orientations exhibited similar levels of strength, the corresponding set of fatigue specimens showed similar lives. The spread from shortest to longest fatigue lives among the different corrosion conditions decreased at the higher stress levels. Life predictions based on breaking load data were generally shorter than the experimental lives by an average of 20%. The life prediction methodology developed from this investigation is a very valuable tool for the purpose of assessing material substitution for aircraft designers, alloy differentiation for manufacturers, or inspection intervals and aircraft retirement schedules for aircraft in service.

Interior Fracture Mechanism Analysis and Fatigue Life Prediction of Surface-Hardened Gear Steel under Axial Loading.

PubMed

Li, Wei; Deng, Hailong; Liu, Pengfei

2016-10-18

The interior defect-induced fracture of surface-hardened metallic materials in the long life region has become a key issue on engineering design. In the present study, the axial loading test with fully reversed condition was performed to examine the fatigue property of a surface-carburized low alloy gear steel in the long life region. Results show that this steel represents the duplex S-N (stress-number of cycles) characteristics without conventional fatigue limit related to 10⁷ cycles. Fatigue cracks are all originated from the interior inclusions in the matrix region due to the inhabitation effect of carburized layer. The inclusion induced fracture with fisheye occurs in the short life region below 5 × 10⁵ cycles, whereas the inclusion induced fracture with fine granular area (FGA) and fisheye occurs in the long life region beyond 10⁶ cycles. The stress intensity factor range at the front of FGA can be regarded as the threshold value controlling stable growth of interior long crack. The evaluated maximum inclusion size in the effective damage volume of specimen is about 27.29 μm. Considering the size relationships between fisheye and FGA, and inclusion, the developed life prediction method involving crack growth can be acceptable on the basis of the good agreement between the predicted and experimental results.

RandomForest4Life: a Random Forest for predicting ALS disease progression.

PubMed

Hothorn, Torsten; Jung, Hans H

2014-09-01

We describe a method for predicting disease progression in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) patients. The method was developed as a submission to the DREAM Phil Bowen ALS Prediction Prize4Life Challenge of summer 2012. Based on repeated patient examinations over a three- month period, we used a random forest algorithm to predict future disease progression. The procedure was set up and internally evaluated using data from 1197 ALS patients. External validation by an expert jury was based on undisclosed information of an additional 625 patients; all patient data were obtained from the PRO-ACT database. In terms of prediction accuracy, the approach described here ranked third best. Our interpretation of the prediction model confirmed previous reports suggesting that past disease progression is a strong predictor of future disease progression measured on the ALS functional rating scale (ALSFRS). We also found that larger variability in initial ALSFRS scores is linked to faster future disease progression. The results reported here furthermore suggested that approaches taking the multidimensionality of the ALSFRS into account promise some potential for improved ALS disease prediction.

Self-criticism and dependency in female adolescents: Prediction of first onsets and disentangling the relationships between personality, stressful life events, and internalizing psychopathology.

PubMed

Kopala-Sibley, Daniel C; Klein, Daniel N; Perlman, Greg; Kotov, Roman

2017-11-01

There is substantial evidence that personality traits, such as self-criticism and dependency, predict the development of depression and anxiety symptoms, as well as depressive episodes. However, it is unknown whether self-criticism and dependency predict the first onset of depressive and anxiety disorders, and unclear how to characterize dynamic mechanisms by which these traits, stressful life events, and psychopathology influence one another over time. In this study, 550 female adolescents were assessed at baseline, 528 and 513 of whom were assessed again at Waves 2 and 3, respectively, over the course of 18 months. Self-criticism and dependency were assessed with self-report inventories, depressive and anxiety disorders were assessed with diagnostic interviews, and stressful life events were assessed via semistructured interview. Logistic regression analyses showed that self-criticism and dependency significantly predicted the first onset of nearly all depressive and anxiety disorders (significant polychoric r s ranged from .15-.42). Subsequent path analyses focused on prediction of depression, and supported several conceptual models of personality-stress-psychopathology relationships. In particular, Personality × Stress interactions were evident for both dependency and self-criticism. These interactions took the form of dual vulnerability, such that stressful life events predicted an increased probability of a later depressive disorder only at low levels of each trait. Results suggest the traits of self-criticism and dependency are important to consider in understanding who is at risk for depressive and anxiety disorders. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

What shapes 7-year-olds' subjective well-being? Prospective analysis of early childhood and parenting using the Growing Up in Scotland study.

PubMed

Parkes, Alison; Sweeting, Helen; Wight, Daniel

2016-10-01

Research on predictors of young children's psychosocial well-being currently relies on adult-reported outcomes. This study investigated whether early family circumstances and parenting predict 7-year-olds' subjective well-being. Information on supportive friendships, liking school and life satisfaction was obtained from 7-year-olds in one Growing Up in Scotland birth cohort in 2012-2013 (N = 2869). Mothers provided information on early childhood factors from 10 to 34 months, parenting (dysfunctional parenting, home learning and protectiveness) from 46 to 70 months, and 7-year-olds' adjustment. Multivariable path models explored associations between early childhood factors, parenting and 7-year-olds' subjective well-being. Supplementary analyses compared findings with those for mother-reported adjustment. In a model of early childhood factors, maternal distress predicted less supportive friendships and lower life satisfaction (coefficients -0.12), poverty predicted less supportive friendships (-0.09) and remote location predicted all outcomes (-0.20 to -0.27). In a model with parenting added, dysfunctional parenting predicted all outcomes (-10 to -0.16), home learning predicted liking school (0.11) and life satisfaction (0.08), and protectiveness predicted life satisfaction (0.08). Effects of maternal distress were fully mediated, largely via dysfunctional parenting, while home learning mediated negative effects of low maternal education. Direct effects of poverty and remote location remained. Findings for mother-reported child adjustment were broadly similar. Unique prospective data show parenting and early childhood impact 7-year-olds' subjective well-being. They underline the benefits for children of targeting parental mental health and dysfunctional parenting, and helping parents develop skills to support children at home and school.

Computer programs to characterize alloys and predict cyclic life using the total strain version of strainrange partitioning: Tutorial and users manual, version 1.0

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saltsman, James F.

1992-01-01

This manual presents computer programs for characterizing and predicting fatigue and creep-fatigue resistance of metallic materials in the high-temperature, long-life regime for isothermal and nonisothermal fatigue. The programs use the total strain version of Strainrange Partitioning (TS-SRP). An extensive database has also been developed in a parallel effort. This database is probably the largest source of high-temperature, creep-fatigue test data available in the public domain and can be used with other life prediction methods as well. This users manual, software, and database are all in the public domain and are available through COSMIC (382 East Broad Street, Athens, GA 30602; (404) 542-3265, FAX (404) 542-4807). Two disks accompany this manual. The first disk contains the source code, executable files, and sample output from these programs. The second disk contains the creep-fatigue data in a format compatible with these programs.

Predicting tool life in turning operations using neural networks and image processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikołajczyk, T.; Nowicki, K.; Bustillo, A.; Yu Pimenov, D.

2018-05-01

A two-step method is presented for the automatic prediction of tool life in turning operations. First, experimental data are collected for three cutting edges under the same constant processing conditions. In these experiments, the parameter of tool wear, VB, is measured with conventional methods and the same parameter is estimated using Neural Wear, a customized software package that combines flank wear image recognition and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). Second, an ANN model of tool life is trained with the data collected from the first two cutting edges and the subsequent model is evaluated on two different subsets for the third cutting edge: the first subset is obtained from the direct measurement of tool wear and the second is obtained from the Neural Wear software that estimates tool wear using edge images. Although the complete-automated solution, Neural Wear software for tool wear recognition plus the ANN model of tool life prediction, presented a slightly higher error than the direct measurements, it was within the same range and can meet all industrial requirements. These results confirm that the combination of image recognition software and ANN modelling could potentially be developed into a useful industrial tool for low-cost estimation of tool life in turning operations.

Prognostics for Ground Support Systems: Case Study on Pneumatic Valves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daigle, Matthew; Goebel, Kai

2011-01-01

Prognostics technologies determine the health (or damage) state of a component or sub-system, and make end of life (EOL) and remaining useful life (RUL) predictions. Such information enables system operators to make informed maintenance decisions and streamline operational and mission-level activities. We develop a model-based prognostics methodology for pneumatic valves used in ground support equipment for cryogenic propellant loading operations. These valves are used to control the flow of propellant, so failures may have a significant impact on launch availability. Therefore, correctly predicting when valves will fail enables timely maintenance that avoids launch delays and aborts. The approach utilizes mathematical models describing the underlying physics of valve degradation, and, employing the particle filtering algorithm for joint state-parameter estimation, determines the health state of the valve and the rate of damage progression, from which EOL and RUL predictions are made. We develop a prototype user interface for valve prognostics, and demonstrate the prognostics approach using historical pneumatic valve data from the Space Shuttle refueling system.

Advanced Earth-to-orbit propulsion technology program overview: Impact of civil space technology initiative

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stephenson, Frank W., Jr.

1988-01-01

The NASA Earth-to-Orbit (ETO) Propulsion Technology Program is dedicated to advancing rocket engine technologies for the development of fully reusable engine systems that will enable space transportation systems to achieve low cost, routine access to space. The program addresses technology advancements in the areas of engine life extension/prediction, performance enhancements, reduced ground operations costs, and in-flight fault tolerant engine operations. The primary objective is to acquire increased knowledge and understanding of rocket engine chemical and physical processes in order to evolve more realistic analytical simulations of engine internal environments, to derive more accurate predictions of steady and unsteady loads, and using improved structural analyses, to more accurately predict component life and performance, and finally to identify and verify more durable advanced design concepts. In addition, efforts were focused on engine diagnostic needs and advances that would allow integrated health monitoring systems to be developed for enhanced maintainability, automated servicing, inspection, and checkout, and ultimately, in-flight fault tolerant engine operations.

Neuroticism and Extraversion in Youth Predict Mental Wellbeing and Life Satisfaction 40 Years Later

PubMed Central

Gale, Catharine R; Booth, Tom; Mõttus, René; Kuh, Diana; Deary, Ian J

2014-01-01

Neuroticism and Extraversion are linked with current wellbeing, but it is unclear whether these traits in youth predict wellbeing decades later. We applied structural equation modelling to data from 4583 people from the MRC National Survey of Health and Development. We examined the effects of Neuroticism and Extraversion at ages 16 and 26 years on mental wellbeing and life satisfaction at age 60-64 and explored the mediating roles of psychological and physical health. Extraversion had direct, positive effects on both measures of wellbeing. The impact of Neuroticism on both wellbeing and life satisfaction was largely indirect through susceptibility to psychological distress and physical health problems. Personality dispositions in youth have enduring influence on wellbeing assessed about forty years later. PMID:24563560

Eawag-Soil in enviPath: a new resource for exploring regulatory pesticide soil biodegradation pathways and half-life data.

PubMed

Latino, Diogo A R S; Wicker, Jörg; Gütlein, Martin; Schmid, Emanuel; Kramer, Stefan; Fenner, Kathrin

2017-03-22

Developing models for the prediction of microbial biotransformation pathways and half-lives of trace organic contaminants in different environments requires as training data easily accessible and sufficiently large collections of respective biotransformation data that are annotated with metadata on study conditions. Here, we present the Eawag-Soil package, a public database that has been developed to contain all freely accessible regulatory data on pesticide degradation in laboratory soil simulation studies for pesticides registered in the EU (282 degradation pathways, 1535 reactions, 1619 compounds and 4716 biotransformation half-life values with corresponding metadata on study conditions). We provide a thorough description of this novel data resource, and discuss important features of the pesticide soil degradation data that are relevant for model development. Most notably, the variability of half-life values for individual compounds is large and only about one order of magnitude lower than the entire range of median half-life values spanned by all compounds, demonstrating the need to consider study conditions in the development of more accurate models for biotransformation prediction. We further show how the data can be used to find missing rules relevant for predicting soil biotransformation pathways. From this analysis, eight examples of reaction types were presented that should trigger the formulation of new biotransformation rules, e.g., Ar-OH methylation, or the extension of existing rules, e.g., hydroxylation in aliphatic rings. The data were also used to exemplarily explore the dependence of half-lives of different amide pesticides on chemical class and experimental parameters. This analysis highlighted the value of considering initial transformation reactions for the development of meaningful quantitative-structure biotransformation relationships (QSBR), which is a novel opportunity offered by the simultaneous encoding of transformation reactions and corresponding half-lives in Eawag-Soil. Overall, Eawag-Soil provides an unprecedentedly rich collection of manually extracted and curated biotransformation data, which should be useful in a great variety of applications.

Solid-state lighting life prediction using extended Kalman filter

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lall, Pradeep; Wei, Junchao; Davis, Lynn

2013-07-16

Solid-state lighting (SSL) luminaires containing light emitting diodes (LEDs) have the potential of seeing excessive temperatures when being transported across country or being stored in non-climate controlled warehouses. They are also being used in outdoor applications in desert environments that see little or no humidity but will experience extremely high temperatures during the day. This makes it important to increase our understanding of what effects high temperature exposure for a prolonged period of time will have on the usability and survivability of these devices. The U.S. Department of Energy has made a long term commitment to advance the efficiency, understandingmore » and development of solid-state lighting (SSL) and is making a strong push for the acceptance and use of SSL products to reduce overall energy consumption attributable to lighting. Traditional light sources “burn out” at end-of-life. For an incandescent bulb, the lamp life is defined by B50 life. However, the LEDs have no filament to “burn”. The LEDs continually degrade and the light output decreases eventually below useful levels causing failure. Presently, the TM-21 test standard is used to predict the L70 life of SSL Luminaires from LM-80 test data. The TM-21 model uses an Arrhenius Equation with an Activation Energy, Pre-decay factor and Decay Rates. Several failure mechanisms may be active in a luminaire at a single time causing lumen depreciation. The underlying TM-21 Arrhenius Model may not capture the failure physics in presence of multiple failure mechanisms. Correlation of lumen maintenance with underlying physics of degradation at system-level is needed. In this paper, a Kalman Filter and Extended Kalman Filters have been used to develop a 70% Lumen Maintenance Life Prediction Model for a LEDs used in SSL luminaires. This model can be used to calculate acceleration factors, evaluate failure-probability and identify ALT methodologies for reducing test time. Ten-thousand hour LM-80 test data for various LEDs have been used for model development. System state has been described in state space form using the measurement of the feature vector, velocity of feature vector change and the acceleration of the feature vector change. System state at each future time has been computed based on the state space at preceding time step, system dynamics matrix, control vector, control matrix, measurement matrix, measured vector, process noise and measurement noise. The future state of the lumen depreciation has been estimated based on a second order Kalman Filter model and a Bayesian Framework. The measured state variable has been related to the underlying damage using physics-based models. Life prediction of L70 life for the LEDs used in SSL luminaires from KF and EKF based models have been compared with the TM-21 model predictions and experimental data.« less

Lifetime Reliability Prediction of Ceramic Structures Under Transient Thermomechanical Loads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Jadaan, Osama J.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

2005-01-01

An analytical methodology is developed to predict the probability of survival (reliability) of ceramic components subjected to harsh thermomechanical loads that can vary with time (transient reliability analysis). This capability enables more accurate prediction of ceramic component integrity against fracture in situations such as turbine startup and shutdown, operational vibrations, atmospheric reentry, or other rapid heating or cooling situations (thermal shock). The transient reliability analysis methodology developed herein incorporates the following features: fast-fracture transient analysis (reliability analysis without slow crack growth, SCG); transient analysis with SCG (reliability analysis with time-dependent damage due to SCG); a computationally efficient algorithm to compute the reliability for components subjected to repeated transient loading (block loading); cyclic fatigue modeling using a combined SCG and Walker fatigue law; proof testing for transient loads; and Weibull and fatigue parameters that are allowed to vary with temperature or time. Component-to-component variation in strength (stochastic strength response) is accounted for with the Weibull distribution, and either the principle of independent action or the Batdorf theory is used to predict the effect of multiaxial stresses on reliability. The reliability analysis can be performed either as a function of the component surface (for surface-distributed flaws) or component volume (for volume-distributed flaws). The transient reliability analysis capability has been added to the NASA CARES/ Life (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Life) code. CARES/Life was also updated to interface with commercially available finite element analysis software, such as ANSYS, when used to model the effects of transient load histories. Examples are provided to demonstrate the features of the methodology as implemented in the CARES/Life program.

Postpartum Maternal Moods and Infant Size Predict Performance on a National High School Entrance Examination

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Galler, Janina R.; Ramsey, Frank C.; Harrison, Robert H.; Taylor, John; Cumberbatch, Glenroy; Forde, Victor

2004-01-01

Background: In an earlier series of studies, we documented the effects of feeding practices and postnatal maternal mood on the growth and development of 226 Barbadian children during the first few months of life. In this report, we extend our earlier studies by examining predictive relationships between infant size, feeding practices and…

Do Materialism, Intrinsic Aspirations, and Meaning in Life Predict Students' Meanings of Education?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Henderson-King, Donna; Mitchell, Amanda M.

2011-01-01

Though there is a deep literature on factors that predict college attendance and on the effects of college attendance on students' development, there has been little research on what education actually means to students themselves. This study was conducted to examine whether materialism, intrinsic aspirations, and the search for meaning in life…

Stochastic variation in avian survival rates: Life-history predictions, population consequences, and the potential responses to human perturbations and climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schmutz, Joel A.; Thomson, David L.; Cooch, Evan G.; Conroy, Michael J.

2009-01-01

Stochastic variation in survival rates is expected to decrease long-term population growth rates. This expectation influences both life-history theory and the conservation of species. From this expectation, Pfister (1998) developed the important life-history prediction that natural selection will have minimized variability in those elements of the annual life cycle (such as adult survival rate) with high sensitivity. This prediction has not been rigorously evaluated for bird populations, in part due to statistical difficulties related to variance estimation. I here overcome these difficulties, and in an analysis of 62 populations, I confirm her prediction by showing a negative relationship between the proportional sensitivity (elasticity) of adult survival and the proportional variance (CV) of adult survival. However, several species deviated significantly from this expectation, with more process variance in survival than predicted. For instance, projecting the magnitude of process variance in annual survival for American redstarts (Setophaga ruticilla) for 25 years resulted in a 44% decline in abundance without assuming any change in mean survival rate. For most of these species with high process variance, recent changes in harvest, habitats, or changes in climate patterns are the likely sources of environmental variability causing this variability in survival. Because of climate change, environmental variability is increasing on regional and global scales, which is expected to increase stochasticity in vital rates of species. Increased stochasticity in survival will depress population growth rates, and this result will magnify the conservation challenges we face.

Nonlinear-drifted Brownian motion with multiple hidden states for remaining useful life prediction of rechargeable batteries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Dong; Zhao, Yang; Yang, Fangfang; Tsui, Kwok-Leung

2017-09-01

Brownian motion with adaptive drift has attracted much attention in prognostics because its first hitting time is highly relevant to remaining useful life prediction and it follows the inverse Gaussian distribution. Besides linear degradation modeling, nonlinear-drifted Brownian motion has been developed to model nonlinear degradation. Moreover, the first hitting time distribution of the nonlinear-drifted Brownian motion has been approximated by time-space transformation. In the previous studies, the drift coefficient is the only hidden state used in state space modeling of the nonlinear-drifted Brownian motion. Besides the drift coefficient, parameters of a nonlinear function used in the nonlinear-drifted Brownian motion should be treated as additional hidden states of state space modeling to make the nonlinear-drifted Brownian motion more flexible. In this paper, a prognostic method based on nonlinear-drifted Brownian motion with multiple hidden states is proposed and then it is applied to predict remaining useful life of rechargeable batteries. 26 sets of rechargeable battery degradation samples are analyzed to validate the effectiveness of the proposed prognostic method. Moreover, some comparisons with a standard particle filter based prognostic method, a spherical cubature particle filter based prognostic method and two classic Bayesian prognostic methods are conducted to highlight the superiority of the proposed prognostic method. Results show that the proposed prognostic method has lower average prediction errors than the particle filter based prognostic methods and the classic Bayesian prognostic methods for battery remaining useful life prediction.

A New Ductility Exhaustion Model for High Temperature Low Cycle Fatigue Life Prediction of Turbine Disk Alloys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Shun-Peng; Huang, Hong-Zhong; Li, Haiqing; Sun, Rui; Zuo, Ming J.

2011-06-01

Based on ductility exhaustion theory and the generalized energy-based damage parameter, a new viscosity-based life prediction model is introduced to account for the mean strain/stress effects in the low cycle fatigue regime. The loading waveform parameters and cyclic hardening effects are also incorporated within this model. It is assumed that damage accrues by means of viscous flow and ductility consumption is only related to plastic strain and creep strain under high temperature low cycle fatigue conditions. In the developed model, dynamic viscosity is used to describe the flow behavior. This model provides a better prediction of Superalloy GH4133's fatigue behavior when compared to Goswami's ductility model and the generalized damage parameter. Under non-zero mean strain conditions, moreover, the proposed model provides more accurate predictions of Superalloy GH4133's fatigue behavior than that with zero mean strains.

Fatigue crack growth and life prediction under mixed-mode loading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sajith, S.; Murthy, K. S. R. K.; Robi, P. S.

2018-04-01

Fatigue crack growth life as a function of crack length is essential for the prevention of catastrophic failures from damage tolerance perspective. In damage tolerance design approach, principles of fracture mechanics are usually applied to predict the fatigue life of structural components. Numerical prediction of crack growth versus number of cycles is essential in damage tolerance design. For cracks under mixed mode I/II loading, modified Paris law (d/a d N =C (ΔKe q ) m ) along with different equivalent stress intensity factor (ΔKeq) model is used for fatigue crack growth rate prediction. There are a large number of ΔKeq models available for the mixed mode I/II loading, the selection of proper ΔKeq model has significant impact on fatigue life prediction. In the present investigation, the performance of ΔKeq models in fatigue life prediction is compared with respect to the experimental findings as there are no guidelines/suggestions available on the selection of these models for accurate and/or conservative predictions of fatigue life. Within the limitations of availability of experimental data and currently available numerical simulation techniques, the results of present study attempt to outline models that would provide accurate and conservative life predictions. Such a study aid the numerical analysts or engineers in the proper selection of the model for numerical simulation of the fatigue life. Moreover, the present investigation also suggests a procedure to enhance the accuracy of life prediction using Paris law.

Module encapsulation technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Willis, P.

1986-01-01

The identification and development techniques for low-cost module encapsulation materials were reviewed. Test results were displayed for a variety of materials. The improved prospects for modeling encapsulation systems for life prediction were reported.

75 FR 53277 - Notice of Workshop on Polymers for Photovoltaic Systems

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-08-31

... photovoltaic systems; testing, performance, and reliability of polymers in photovoltaic systems; impact of... mentioned topics; presentation of a NIST- developed accelerated aging and service life prediction...

Factors predicting life-threatening infections with respiratory syncytial virus in adult patients.

PubMed

Park, Se Yoon; Kim, Taeeun; Jang, Young Rock; Kim, Min-Chul; Chong, Yong Pil; Lee, Sang-Oh; Choi, Sang-Ho; Kim, Yang Soo; Woo, Jun Hee; Kim, Sung-Han

2017-05-01

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a significant cause of acute respiratory illness with a clinical spectrum ranging from self-limiting upper respiratory infection to severe lower respiratory infection in elderly persons as well as young children. However, there are limited data on risk factors for life-threatening infections that could guide the appropriate use of antiviral agents in adult patients with RSV. We conducted a retrospective cohort study from October 2013 to September 2015. Adult patients with RSV who visited the emergency department were enrolled. Primary outcome was life-threatening infection (admission to intensive care unit, need for ventilator care or in-hospital death). A total of 227 patients were analysed. Thirty-four (15%) were classified as having life-threatening infections. By logistic regression, lower respiratory infection, chronic lung disease and bacterial co-infection were independent predictors of life-threatening infections. We developed a simple clinical scoring system using these variables (lower respiratory tract infection = score 4, chronic respiratory disease = score 3, bacterial co-infection = score 3 and fever ≥38 °C = score 2) to predict life-threatening infection. A score of >5 differentiated life-threatening RSV from non-life-threatening RSV with 82% sensitivity (95% CI, 66-93) and 72% specificity (95% CI, 65-78). The use of a clinical scoring system based on lower respiratory infection, chronic respiratory disease, bacterial co-infection and fever appears to be useful for outcome prediction and risk stratification in order to select patients who may need early antiviral therapy.

The Relationships Between Microstructure, Tensile Properties and Fatigue Life in Ti-5Al-5V-5Mo-3Cr-0.4Fe (Ti-5553)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foltz, John W., IV

beta-titanium alloys are being increasingly used in airframes as a way to decrease the weight of the aircraft. As a result of this movement, Ti-5Al-5V-5Mo-3Cr-0.4Fe (Timetal 555), a high-strength beta titanium alloy, is being used on the current generation of landing gear. This alloy features good combinations of strength, ductility, toughness and fatigue life in alpha+beta processed conditions, but little is known about beta-processed conditions. Recent work by the Center for the Accelerated Maturation of Materials (CAMM) research group at The Ohio State University has improved the tensile property knowledge base for beta-processed conditions in this alloy, and this thesis augments the aforementioned development with description of how microstructure affects fatigue life. In this work, beta-processed microstructures have been produced in a Gleeble(TM) thermomechanical simulator and subsequently characterized with a combination of electron and optical microscopy techniques. Four-point bending fatigue tests have been carried out on the material to characterize fatigue life. All the microstructural conditions have been fatigue tested with the maximum test stress equal to 90% of the measured yield strength. The subsequent results from tensile tests, fatigue tests, and microstructural quantification have been analyzed using Bayesian neural networks in an attempt to predict fatigue life using microstructural and tensile inputs. Good correlation has been developed between lifetime predictions and experimental results using microstructure and tensile inputs. Trained Bayesian neural networks have also been used in a predictive fashion to explore functional dependencies between these inputs and fatigue life. In this work, one section discusses the thermal treatments that led to the observed microstructures, and the possible sequence of precipitation that led to these microstructures. The thesis then describes the implications of microstructure on fatigue life and implications of tensile properties on fatigue life. Several additional experiments are then described that highlight possible causes for the observed dependence of microstructure on fatigue life, including fractographic evidence to provide support of microstructural dependencies.

Acoustic fatigue life prediction for nonlinear structures with multiple resonant modes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miles, R. N.

1992-01-01

This report documents an effort to develop practical and accurate methods for estimating the fatigue lives of complex aerospace structures subjected to intense random excitations. The emphasis of the current program is to construct analytical schemes for performing fatigue life estimates for structures that exhibit nonlinear vibration behavior and that have numerous resonant modes contributing to the response.

Relationship between Defect Size and Fatigue Life Distributions in Al-7 Pct Si-Mg Alloy Castings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiryakioğlu, Murat

2009-07-01

A new method for predicting the variability in fatigue life of castings was developed by combining the size distribution for the fatigue-initiating defects and a fatigue life model based on the Paris-Erdoğan law for crack propagation. Two datasets for the fatigue-initiating defects in Al-7 pct Si-Mg alloy castings, reported previously in the literature, were used to demonstrate that (1) the size of fatigue-initiating defects follow the Gumbel distribution; (2) the crack propagation model developed previously provides respectable fits to experimental data; and (3) the method developed in the present study expresses the variability in both datasets, almost as well as the lognormal distribution and better than the Weibull distribution.

Impacts of education level and employment status on health-related quality of life in multiple sclerosis patients.

PubMed

Šabanagić-Hajrić, Selma; Alajbegović, Azra

2015-02-01

To evaluate the impacts of education level and employment status on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in multiple sclerosis patients. This study included 100 multiple sclerosis patients treated at the Department of Neurology, Clinical Center of the University of Sarajevo. Inclusion criteria were the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score between 1.0 and 6.5, age between 18 and 65 years, stable disease on enrollment. Quality of life (QoL) was evaluated by the Multiple Sclerosis Quality of Life-54 questionnaire (MSQoL-54). Mann-Whitney and Kruskal-Wallis test were used for comparisons. Linear regression analyses were performed to evaluate prediction value of educational level and employment status in predicting MSQOL-54 physical and mental composite scores. Full employment status had positive impact on physical health (54.85 vs. 37.90; p les than 0.001) and mental health (59.55 vs. 45.90; p les than 0.001) composite scores. Employment status retained its independent predictability for both physical (r(2)=0.105) and mental (r(2)=0.076) composite scores in linear regression analysis. Patients with college degree had slightly higher median value of physical (49.36 vs. 45.30) and mental health composite score (66.74 vs. 55.62) comparing to others, without statistically significant difference. Employment proved to be an important factor in predicting quality of life in multiple sclerosis patients. Higher education level may determine better QOL but without significant predictive value. Sustained employment and development of vocational rehabilitation programs for MS patients living in the country with high unemployment level is an important factor in improving both physical and mental health outcomes in MS patients.

Early Environment and Neurobehavioral Development Predict Adult Temperament Clusters

PubMed Central

Congdon, Eliza; Service, Susan; Wessman, Jaana; Seppänen, Jouni K.; Schönauer, Stefan; Miettunen, Jouko; Turunen, Hannu; Koiranen, Markku; Joukamaa, Matti; Järvelin, Marjo-Riitta; Veijola, Juha; Mannila, Heikki; Paunio, Tiina; Freimer, Nelson B.

2012-01-01

Background Investigation of the environmental influences on human behavioral phenotypes is important for our understanding of the causation of psychiatric disorders. However, there are complexities associated with the assessment of environmental influences on behavior. Methods/Principal Findings We conducted a series of analyses using a prospective, longitudinal study of a nationally representative birth cohort from Finland (the Northern Finland 1966 Birth Cohort). Participants included a total of 3,761 male and female cohort members who were living in Finland at the age of 16 years and who had complete temperament scores. Our initial analyses (Wessman et al., in press) provide evidence in support of four stable and robust temperament clusters. Using these temperament clusters, as well as independent temperament dimensions for comparison, we conducted a data-driven analysis to assess the influence of a broad set of life course measures, assessed pre-natally, in infancy, and during adolescence, on adult temperament. Results Measures of early environment, neurobehavioral development, and adolescent behavior significantly predict adult temperament, classified by both cluster membership and temperament dimensions. Specifically, our results suggest that a relatively consistent set of life course measures are associated with adult temperament profiles, including maternal education, characteristics of the family’s location and residence, adolescent academic performance, and adolescent smoking. Conclusions Our finding that a consistent set of life course measures predict temperament clusters indicate that these clusters represent distinct developmental temperament trajectories and that information about a subset of life course measures has implications for adult health outcomes. PMID:22815688

Small-crack effects in high-strength aluminum alloys

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newman, J. C., Jr.; Wu, X. R.; Venneri, S. L.; Li, C. G.

1994-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the Chinese Aeronautical Establishment participated in a Fatigue and Fracture Mechanics Cooperative Program. The program objectives were to identify and characterize crack initiation and growth of small cracks (10 microns to 2 mm long) in commonly used US and PRC aluminum alloys, to improve fracture mechanics analyses of surface- and corner-crack configurations, and to develop improved life-prediction methods. Fatigue and small-crack tests were performed on single-edgenotch tension (SENT) specimens and large-crack tests were conducted on center-crack tension specimens for constant-amplitude (stress ratios of -1, 0, and 0.5) and Mini-TWIST spectrum loading. The plastic replica method was used to monitor the initiation and growth of small fatigue cracks at the semicircular notch. Crack growth results from each laboratory on 7075-T6 bare and LC9cs clad aluminum alloys agreed well and showed that fatigue life was mostly crack propagation from a material defect (inclusion particles or void) or from the cladding layer. Finite-element and weight-function methods were used to determine stress intensity factors for surface and corner cracks in the SENT specimens. Equations were then developed and used in a crack growth and crack-closure model to correlate small- and large-crack data and to make life predictions for various load histories. The cooperative program produced useful experimental data and efficient analysis methods for improving life predictions. The results should ultimately improve aircraft structural reliability and safety.

Differentiating Impacts of Watershed Development from Superfund Sites on Stream Macroinvertebrates

EPA Science Inventory

Urbanization effect models were developed and verified at whole watershed scales to predict and differentiate between effects on aquatic life from diffuse, non-point source (NPS) urbanization in the watershed and effects of known local, site-specific origin point sources, contami...

Sequencing of Vocational Development Stages: Further Studies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hershenson, David B.; Lavery, Gerard J.

1978-01-01

Reports two studies supporting the prediction derived from Hershenson's life-stage vocational development model that average scores on Self-differentiation (worker self-concept and motivation) would exceed those on Competence (work habits, skills, and interpersonal relations), which in turn would exceed those on Independence (appropriateness and…

Development and Validation of a Measure of Quality of Life for the Young Elderly in Sri Lanka.

PubMed

de Silva, Sudirikku Hennadige Padmal; Jayasuriya, Anura Rohan; Rajapaksa, Lalini Chandika; de Silva, Ambepitiyawaduge Pubudu; Barraclough, Simon

2016-01-01

Sri Lanka has one of the fastest aging populations in the world. Measurement of quality of life (QoL) in the elderly needs instruments developed that encompass the sociocultural settings. An instrument was developed to measure QoL in the young elderly in Sri Lanka (QLI-YES), using accepted methods to generate and reduce items. The measure was validated using a community sample. Construct, criterion and predictive validity and reliability were tested. A first-order model of 24 items with 6 domains was found to have good fit indices (CMIN/df = 1.567, RMR = 0.05, CFI = 0.95, and RMSEA = 0.053). Both criterion and predictive validity were demonstrated. Good internal consistency reliability (Cronbach's α = 0.93) was shown. The development of the QLI-YES using a societal perspective relevant to the social and cultural beliefs has resulted in a robust and valid instrument to measure QoL for the young elderly in Sri Lanka. © 2015 APJPH.

Development and Validation of a Measure of Quality of Life for the Young Elderly in Sri Lanka

PubMed Central

de Silva, Sudirikku Hennadige Padmal; Jayasuriya, Anura Rohan; Rajapaksa, Lalini Chandika; de Silva, Ambepitiyawaduge Pubudu; Barraclough, Simon

2016-01-01

Sri Lanka has one of the fastest aging populations in the world. Measurement of quality of life (QoL) in the elderly needs instruments developed that encompass the sociocultural settings. An instrument was developed to measure QoL in the young elderly in Sri Lanka (QLI-YES), using accepted methods to generate and reduce items. The measure was validated using a community sample. Construct, criterion and predictive validity and reliability were tested. A first-order model of 24 items with 6 domains was found to have good fit indices (CMIN/df = 1.567, RMR = 0.05, CFI = 0.95, and RMSEA = 0.053). Both criterion and predictive validity were demonstrated. Good internal consistency reliability (Cronbach’s α = 0.93) was shown. The development of the QLI-YES using a societal perspective relevant to the social and cultural beliefs has resulted in a robust and valid instrument to measure QoL for the young elderly in Sri Lanka. PMID:26712893

[Life cycle strategies: a synthesis of empirical and theoretical approaches].

PubMed

Romanovskiĭ, Iu E

1998-01-01

A scheme of relationships among life-history characters is developed on assumptions of determinate growth and dependence of juvenile mortality on the specific growth rate. It is shown that constraints on the relative neonate size, (W0/W infinity), and minimum value of the biotic potential, (rmax), lead to "triangular" shape of life history set on the plain defined by juvenile and adult mortality. This completely coincides with the Ramenskiĭ++--Grime (C-S-R) classification of life-history strategies. Phylogenetic constraints can reduce this set to a relatively narŕow r/K-continuum specifically oriented for a certain taxon. Similar restrictions generate models of life history optimization which predict interspecific allometries between life-history traits.

Structural Life and Reliability Metrics: Benchmarking and Verification of Probabilistic Life Prediction Codes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Litt, Jonathan S.; Soditus, Sherry; Hendricks, Robert C.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.

2002-01-01

Over the past two decades there has been considerable effort by NASA Glenn and others to develop probabilistic codes to predict with reasonable engineering certainty the life and reliability of critical components in rotating machinery and, more specifically, in the rotating sections of airbreathing and rocket engines. These codes have, to a very limited extent, been verified with relatively small bench rig type specimens under uniaxial loading. Because of the small and very narrow database the acceptance of these codes within the aerospace community has been limited. An alternate approach to generating statistically significant data under complex loading and environments simulating aircraft and rocket engine conditions is to obtain, catalog and statistically analyze actual field data. End users of the engines, such as commercial airlines and the military, record and store operational and maintenance information. This presentation describes a cooperative program between the NASA GRC, United Airlines, USAF Wright Laboratory, U.S. Army Research Laboratory and Australian Aeronautical & Maritime Research Laboratory to obtain and analyze these airline data for selected components such as blades, disks and combustors. These airline data will be used to benchmark and compare existing life prediction codes.

Prospective associations between adolescent mental health problems and positive mental wellbeing in early old age.

PubMed

Nishida, Atsushi; Richards, Marcus; Stafford, Mai

2016-01-01

Mental health problems in adolescence are predictive of future mental distress and psychopathology; however, few studies investigated adolescent mental health problems in relation to future mental wellbeing and none with follow-up to older age. To test prospective associations between adolescent mental health problems and mental wellbeing and life satisfaction in early old age. A total of 1561 men and women were drawn from the Medical Research Council National Survey of Health and Development (the British 1946 birth cohort). Teachers had previously completed rating scales to assess emotional adjustment and behaviours, which allowed us to extract factors of mental health problems measuring self-organisation, behavioural problems, and emotional problems during adolescence. Between the ages of 60-64 years, mental wellbeing was assessed using the Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Well-being Scale (WEMWBS) and life satisfaction was self-reported using the Satisfaction with Life Scale (SWLS). After controlling for gender, social class of origin, childhood cognitive ability, and educational attainment, adolescent emotional problems were independently inversely associated with mental wellbeing and with life satisfaction. Symptoms of anxiety/depression at 60-64 years explained the association with life satisfaction but not with mental wellbeing. Associations between adolescent self-organisation and conduct problems and mental wellbeing and life satisfaction were of negligible magnitude, but higher childhood cognitive ability significantly predicted poor life satisfaction in early old age. Adolescent self-organisation and conduct problems may not be predictive of future mental wellbeing and life satisfaction. Adolescent emotional problems may be inversely associated with future wellbeing, and may be associated with lower levels of future life satisfaction through symptoms of anxiety/depression in early old age. Initiatives to prevent and treat emotional problems in adolescence may have long-term benefits which extend into older age.

Factors predicting quality of work life among nurses in tertiary-level hospitals, Bangladesh.

PubMed

Akter, N; Akkadechanunt, T; Chontawan, R; Klunklin, A

2018-06-01

This study examined the level of quality of work life and predictability of years of education, monthly income, years of experience, job stress, organizational commitment and work environment on quality of work life among nurses in tertiary-level hospitals in the People's Republic of Bangladesh. There is an acute shortage of nurses worldwide including Bangladesh. Quality of work life is important for quality of patient care and nurse retention. Nurses in Bangladesh are fighting to provide quality care for emerging health problems for the achievement of sustainable development goals. We collected data from 288 randomly selected registered nurses, from six tertiary-level hospitals. All nurses were requested to fill questionnaire consisted of Demographic Data Sheet, Quality of Nursing Work Life Survey, Expanded Nursing Stress Scale, Questionnaire of Organizational Commitment and Practice Environment Scale of the Nursing Work Index. Data were analysed by descriptive statistics and multiple regression. The quality of work life as perceived by nurses in Bangladesh was at moderate level. Monthly income was found as the best predictor followed by work environment, organizational commitment and job stress. A higher monthly income helps nurses to fulfil their personal needs; positive work environment helps to provide quality care to the patients. Quality of work life and predictors measured by self-report only may not reflect the original picture of the quality of work life among nurses. Findings provide information for nursing and health policymakers to develop policies to improve quality of work life among nurses that can contribute to quality of nursing care. This includes the working environment, commitment to the organization and measures to reduce job stress. © 2017 International Council of Nurses.

New approach for processing data provided by an INS/GPS system onboard a vehicle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dumitrascu, Ana; Serbanescu, Ionut; Tamas, Razvan D.; Danisor, Alin; Caruntu, George; Ticu, Ionela

2016-12-01

Due to the technology development, navigation systems are widely used in ground vehicle applications such as position prediction, safety of life, etc. It is known that a hybrid navigation system consisting of a GPS and inertial navigation system (INS) can provide a more accurate position prediction. By applying a Method of Moments (MoM) approach on the acquired data with INS/GPS we can extract both the coordinate and important information concerning safety of life. This kind of system will be cost effective and can also be used as a black box on boats, cars, submersible ships and even on small aircrafts.

Direct and indirect influences of childhood abuse on depression symptoms in patients with major depressive disorder.

PubMed

Hayashi, Yumi; Okamoto, Yasumasa; Takagaki, Koki; Okada, Go; Toki, Shigeru; Inoue, Takeshi; Tanabe, Hajime; Kobayakawa, Makoto; Yamawaki, Shigeto

2015-10-14

It is known that the onset, progression, and prognosis of major depressive disorder are affected by interactions between a number of factors. This study investigated how childhood abuse, personality, and stress of life events were associated with symptoms of depression in depressed people. Patients with major depressive disorder (N = 113, 58 women and 55 men) completed the Beck Depression Inventory-II (BDI-II), the Neuroticism Extroversion Openness Five Factor Inventory (NEO-FFI), the Child Abuse and Trauma Scale (CATS), and the Life Experiences Survey (LES), which are self-report scales. Results were analyzed with correlation analysis and structural equation modeling (SEM), by using SPSS AMOS 21.0. Childhood abuse directly predicted the severity of depression and indirectly predicted the severity of depression through the mediation of personality. Negative life change score of the LES was affected by childhood abuse, however it did not predict the severity of depression. This study is the first to report a relationship between childhood abuse, personality, adulthood life stresses and the severity of depression in depressed patients. Childhood abuse directly and indirectly predicted the severity of depression. These results suggest the need for clinicians to be receptive to the possibility of childhood abuse in patients suffering from depression. SEM is a procedure used for hypothesis modeling and not for causal modeling. Therefore, the possibility of developing more appropriate models that include other variables cannot be excluded.

Environmental Barrier Coating (EBC) Durability Modeling; An Overview and Preliminary Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abdul-Aziz, A.; Bhatt, R. T.; Grady, J. E.; Zhu, D.

2012-01-01

A study outlining a fracture mechanics based model that is being developed to investigate crack growth and spallation of environmental barrier coating (EBC) under thermal cycling conditions is presented. A description of the current plan and a model to estimate thermal residual stresses in the coating and preliminary fracture mechanics concepts for studying crack growth in the coating are also discussed. A road map for modeling life and durability of the EBC and the results of FEA model(s) developed for predicting thermal residual stresses and the cracking behavior of the coating are generated and described. Further initial assessment and preliminary results showed that developing a comprehensive EBC life prediction model incorporating EBC cracking, degradation and spalling mechanism under stress and temperature gradients typically seen in turbine components is difficult. This is basically due to mismatch in thermal expansion difference between sub-layers of EBC as well as between EBC and substrate, diffusion of moisture and oxygen though the coating, and densification of the coating during operating conditions as well as due to foreign object damage, the EBC can also crack and spall from the substrate causing oxidation and recession and reducing the design life of the EBC coated substrate.

Predicting quality of life in multiple sclerosis: accounting for physical disability, fatigue, cognition, mood disorder, personality, and behavior change.

PubMed

Benedict, Ralph H B; Wahlig, Elizabeth; Bakshi, Rohit; Fishman, Inna; Munschauer, Frederick; Zivadinov, Robert; Weinstock-Guttman, Bianca

2005-04-15

Health-related quality of life (HQOL) is poor in multiple sclerosis (MS) but the clinical precipitants of the problem are not well understood. Previous correlative studies demonstrated relationships between various clinical parameters and diminished HQOL in MS. Unfortunately, these studies failed to account for multiple predictors in the same analysis. We endeavored to determine what clinical parameters account for most variance in predicting HQOL, and employability, while accounting for disease course, physical disability, fatigue, cognition, mood disorder, personality, and behavior disorder. In 120 MS patients, we measured HQOL (MS Quality of Life-54) and vocational status (employed vs. disabled) and then conducted detailed clinical testing. Data were analyzed by linear and logistic regression methods. MS patients reported lower HQOL (p<0.001) and were more likely to be disabled (45% of patients vs. 0 controls). Physical HQOL was predicted by fatigue, depression, and physical disability. Mental HQOL was associated with only depression and fatigue. In contrast, vocational status was predicted by three cognitive tests, conscientiousness, and disease duration (p<0.05). Thus, for the first time, we predicted HQOL in MS while accounting for measures from these many clinical domains. We conclude that self-report HQOL indices are most strongly predicted by measures of depression, whereas vocational status is predicted primarily by objective measures of cognitive function. The findings highlight core clinical problems that merit early identification and further research regarding the development of effective treatment.

Disorganized Attachment in Infancy Predicts Greater Amygdala Volume in Adulthood

PubMed Central

Lyons-Ruth, K.; Pechtel, P.; Yoon, S.A.; Anderson, C.M.; Teicher, M.H.

2016-01-01

Early life stress in rodents is associated with increased amygdala volume in adulthood. In humans, the amygdala develops rapidly during the first two years of life. Thus, disturbed care during this period may be particularly important to amygdala development. In the context of a 30-year longitudinal study of impoverished, highly stressed families, we assessed whether disorganization of the attachment relationship in infancy was related to amygdala volume in adulthood. Amygdala volumes were assessed among 18 low-income young adults (8M/10F, 29.33±0.49 years) first observed in infancy (8.5±5.6 months) and followed longitudinally to age 29. In infancy (18.58±1.02 mos), both disorganized infant attachment behavior and disrupted maternal communication were assessed in the standard Strange Situation Procedure (SSP). Increased left amygdala volume in adulthood was associated with both maternal and infant components of disorganized attachment interactions at 18 months of age (overall r = .679, p < .004). Later stressors, including childhood maltreatment and attachment disturbance in adolescence, were not significantly related to left amygdala volume. Left amygdala volume was further associated with dissociation and limbic irritability in adulthood. Finally, left amygdala volume mediated the prediction from attachment disturbance in infancy to limbic irritability in adulthood. Results point to the likely importance of quality of early care for amygdala development in human children as well as in rodents. The long-term prediction found here suggests that the first two years of life may be an early sensitive period for amygdala development during which clinical intervention could have particularly important consequences for later child outcomes. PMID:27060720

Rapid weight gain after birth predicts life history and reproductive strategy in Filipino males

PubMed Central

Kuzawa, Christopher W.; McDade, Thomas W.; Adair, Linda S.; Lee, Nanette

2010-01-01

Ecological cues during prenatal and postnatal development may allow organisms to adjust reproductive strategy. The hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal (HPG) axis is a prime candidate for adaptive plasticity as a result of its critical period of birth to 6 mo (B6M) in humans and the role of testosterone in the development and maintenance of costly sexually dimorphic somatic and behavioral traits. We hypothesized that weight velocity specific to B6M would predict male life history characteristics, including maturational timing, reproductive hormones, adult size, strength, and sexual activity. Data come from 770 Filipino men (age 20.5–22.5 y) followed since birth, with predictor variables including birth weight and weight velocities calculated at 6-mo intervals during the first 2 y of life. As expected, infants who were breastfed experienced less diarrhea, lived in wealthier households with better hygiene, and grew faster from B6M. Males with rapid B6M growth reached puberty earlier and, as young adults, had higher testosterone levels, were taller, more muscular, and had higher grip strength. They also had sex earlier and were more likely to report having had sex in the past month, resulting in more lifetime sex partners. Relationships between B6M weight gain and physical outcomes were generally not present or weaker in female subjects. We conclude that rapid weight gain specific to the brief postnatal hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal critical period predicts early maturation and sexual activity, elevated hormone production, and more costly adult somatic characteristics among the male subjects in this sample. These findings provide evidence for early life developmental plasticity in male life history and reproductive strategy in humans. PMID:20837542

Childhood adversity predicts reduced physiological flexibility during the processing of negative affect among adolescents with major depression histories.

PubMed

Daches, Shimrit; Kovacs, Maria; George, Charles J; Yaroslavsky, Ilya; Kiss, Eniko; Vetró, Ágnes; Dochnal, Roberta; Benák, István; Baji, Ildikó; Halas, Kitti; Makai, Attila; Kapornai, Krisztina; Rottenberg, Jonathan

2017-11-01

Adversity during early development has been shown to have enduring negative physiological consequences. In turn, atypical physiological functioning has been associated with maladaptive processing of negative affect, including its regulation. The present study therefore explored whether exposure to adverse life events in childhood predicted maladaptive (less flexible) parasympathetic nervous system functioning during the processing of negative affect among adolescents with depression histories. An initially clinic-referred, pediatric sample (N=189) was assessed at two time points. At Time 1, when subjects were 10.17years old (SD=1.42), on average, and were depressed, parents reported on adverse life events the offspring experienced up to that point. At Time 2, when subjects were 17.18years old (SD=1.28), and were remitted from depression, parents again reported on adverse life events in their offspring's lives for the interim period. At time 2, subjects' parasympathetic nervous system functioning (quantified as respiratory sinus arrhythmia) also was assessed at rest, during sad mood induction, and during instructed mood repair. Extent of adverse life events experienced by T1 (but not events occurring between T1 and T2) predicted less flexible RSA functioning 7years later during the processing of negative affect. Adolescents with more extensive early life adversities exhibited less vagal withdrawal following negative mood induction and tended to show less physiological recovery following mood repair. Early adversities appear to be associated with less flexible physiological regulatory control during negative affect experience, when measured later in development. Stress-related autonomic dysfunction in vulnerable youths may contribute to the unfavorable clinical prognosis associated with juvenile-onset depression. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for terminally ill cancer patients.

PubMed

Feliu, Jaime; Jiménez-Gordo, Ana María; Madero, Rosario; Rodríguez-Aizcorbe, José Ramón; Espinosa, Enrique; Castro, Javier; Acedo, Jesús Domingo; Martínez, Beatriz; Alonso-Babarro, Alberto; Molina, Raquel; Cámara, Juan Carlos; García-Paredes, María Luisa; González-Barón, Manuel

2011-11-02

Determining life expectancy in terminally ill cancer patients is a difficult task. We aimed to develop and validate a nomogram to predict the length of survival in patients with terminal disease. From February 1, 2003, to December 31, 2005, 406 consecutive terminally ill patients were entered into the study. We analyzed 38 features prognostic of life expectancy among terminally ill patients by multivariable Cox regression and identified the most accurate and parsimonious model by backward variable elimination according to the Akaike information criterion. Five clinical and laboratory variables were built into a nomogram to estimate the probability of patient survival at 15, 30, and 60 days. We validated and calibrated the nomogram with an external validation cohort of 474 patients who were treated from June 1, 2006, through December 31, 2007. The median overall survival was 29.1 days for the training set and 18.3 days for the validation set. Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, lactate dehydrogenase levels, lymphocyte levels, albumin levels, and time from initial diagnosis to diagnosis of terminal disease were retained in the multivariable Cox proportional hazards model as independent prognostic factors of survival and formed the basis of the nomogram. The nomogram had high predictive performance, with a bootstrapped corrected concordance index of 0.70, and it showed good calibration. External independent validation revealed 68% predictive accuracy. We developed a highly accurate tool that uses basic clinical and analytical information to predict the probability of survival at 15, 30, and 60 days in terminally ill cancer patients. This tool can help physicians making decisions on clinical care at the end of life.

Development and external validation of a prediction rule for an unfavorable course of late-life depression: A multicenter cohort study.

PubMed

Maarsingh, O R; Heymans, M W; Verhaak, P F; Penninx, B W J H; Comijs, H C

2018-08-01

Given the poor prognosis of late-life depression, it is crucial to identify those at risk. Our objective was to construct and validate a prediction rule for an unfavourable course of late-life depression. For development and internal validation of the model, we used The Netherlands Study of Depression in Older Persons (NESDO) data. We included participants with a major depressive disorder (MDD) at baseline (n = 270; 60-90 years), assessed with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). For external validation of the model, we used The Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety (NESDA) data (n = 197; 50-66 years). The outcome was MDD after 2 years of follow-up, assessed with the CIDI. Candidate predictors concerned sociodemographics, psychopathology, physical symptoms, medication, psychological determinants, and healthcare setting. Model performance was assessed by calculating calibration and discrimination. 111 subjects (41.1%) had MDD after 2 years of follow-up. Independent predictors of MDD after 2 years were (older) age, (early) onset of depression, severity of depression, anxiety symptoms, comorbid anxiety disorder, fatigue, and loneliness. The final model showed good calibration and reasonable discrimination (AUC of 0.75; 0.70 after external validation). The strongest individual predictor was severity of depression (AUC of 0.69; 0.68 after external validation). The model was developed and validated in The Netherlands, which could affect the cross-country generalizability. Based on rather simple clinical indicators, it is possible to predict the 2-year course of MDD. The prediction rule can be used for monitoring MDD patients and identifying those at risk of an unfavourable outcome. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Different Applications of FORTRACC: From Convective Clouds to thunderstorms and radar fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morales, C.; Machado, L. A.

2009-09-01

The algorithm Forecasting and Tracking the Evolution of Cloud Clusters (ForTraCC), Vila et al. (2008), has been employed operationally in Brazil since 2005 to track and forecast the development of convective clouds. This technique depicts the main morphological features of the cloud systems and most importantly it reconstructs its entire life cycle. Based on this information, several relationships that use the area expansion and convective and stratiform fraction are employed to predict the life time duration and cloud area. Because of these features, the civil defense and power companies are using this information to mitigate the damages in the population. Further developments in FORTRACC included the integration of satellite rainfall retrievals, radar fields and thunderstorm initiation. These improvements try to address the following problems: a) most of the satellite rainfall retrievals do not take into account the life cycle stage that it is a key element on defining the rain area and rain intensity; b) by using the life cycle information it is possible to better predict the precipitation pattern observed in the radar fields; c) cloud signatures are associated to the development of systems that have lightning and no lightning activity. During the presentation, an overview of the different applications of FORTRACC will be presented including case studies and evaluation of the technique. Finally, the presentation will address how the users can have access to the algorithm to implement in their institute.

Epidemiological evidence for a relationship between life events, coping style, and personality factors in the development of breast cancer.

PubMed

Butow, P N; Hiller, J E; Price, M A; Thackway, S V; Kricker, A; Tennant, C C

2000-09-01

Review empirical evidence for a relationship between psychosocial factors and breast cancer development. Standardised quality assessment criteria were utilised to assess the evidence of psychosocial predictors of breast cancer development in the following domains: (a) stressful life events, (b) coping style, (c) social support, and (d) emotional and personality factors. Few well-designed studies report any association between life events and breast cancer, the exception being two small studies using the Life Events and Difficulties Schedule (LEDS) reporting an association between severely threatening events and breast cancer risk. Seven studies show anger repression or alexithymia are predictors, the strongest evidence suggesting younger women are at increased risk. There is no evidence that social support, chronic anxiety, or depression affects breast cancer development. With the exception of rationality/anti-emotionality, personality factors do not predict breast cancer risk. The evidence for a relationship between psychosocial factors and breast cancer is weak. The strongest predictors are emotional repression and severe life events. Future research would benefit from theoretical grounding and greater methodological rigour. Recommendations are given.

Remaining Useful Life Estimation in Prognosis: An Uncertainty Propagation Problem

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sankararaman, Shankar; Goebel, Kai

2013-01-01

The estimation of remaining useful life is significant in the context of prognostics and health monitoring, and the prediction of remaining useful life is essential for online operations and decision-making. However, it is challenging to accurately predict the remaining useful life in practical aerospace applications due to the presence of various uncertainties that affect prognostic calculations, and in turn, render the remaining useful life prediction uncertain. It is challenging to identify and characterize the various sources of uncertainty in prognosis, understand how each of these sources of uncertainty affect the uncertainty in the remaining useful life prediction, and thereby compute the overall uncertainty in the remaining useful life prediction. In order to achieve these goals, this paper proposes that the task of estimating the remaining useful life must be approached as an uncertainty propagation problem. In this context, uncertainty propagation methods which are available in the literature are reviewed, and their applicability to prognostics and health monitoring are discussed.

Life prediction for high temperature low cycle fatigue of two kinds of titanium alloys based on exponential function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mu, G. Y.; Mi, X. Z.; Wang, F.

2018-01-01

The high temperature low cycle fatigue tests of TC4 titanium alloy and TC11 titanium alloy are carried out under strain controlled. The relationships between cyclic stress-life and strain-life are analyzed. The high temperature low cycle fatigue life prediction model of two kinds of titanium alloys is established by using Manson-Coffin method. The relationship between failure inverse number and plastic strain range presents nonlinear in the double logarithmic coordinates. Manson-Coffin method assumes that they have linear relation. Therefore, there is bound to be a certain prediction error by using the Manson-Coffin method. In order to solve this problem, a new method based on exponential function is proposed. The results show that the fatigue life of the two kinds of titanium alloys can be predicted accurately and effectively by using these two methods. Prediction accuracy is within ±1.83 times scatter zone. The life prediction capability of new methods based on exponential function proves more effective and accurate than Manson-Coffin method for two kinds of titanium alloys. The new method based on exponential function can give better fatigue life prediction results with the smaller standard deviation and scatter zone than Manson-Coffin method. The life prediction results of two methods for TC4 titanium alloy prove better than TC11 titanium alloy.

Eudaimonic Growth: Narrative Growth Goals Predict Increases in Ego Development and Subjective Well-Being 3 Years Later

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bauer, Jack J.; McAdams, Dan P.

2010-01-01

We examine (a) the normative course of eudaimonic well-being in emerging adulthood and (b) whether people's narratives of major life goals might prospectively predict eudaimonic growth 3 years later. We define eudaimonic growth as longitudinal increases in eudaimonic well-being, which we define as the combination of psychosocial maturity and…

Nuclear power plant life extension using subsize surveillance specimens. Performance report (4/15/92 - 4/14/98)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kumar, Arvind S.

2001-03-05

A new methodology to predict the Upper Shelf Energy (USE) of standard Charpy specimens (Full size) based on subsize specimens has been developed. The prediction methodology uses Finite Element Modeling (FEM) to model the fracture behavior. The inputs to FEM are the tensile properties of material and subsize Charpy specimen test data.

Measuring and predicting prostate cancer related quality of life changes using EPIC for clinical practice.

PubMed

Chipman, Jonathan J; Sanda, Martin G; Dunn, Rodney L; Wei, John T; Litwin, Mark S; Crociani, Catrina M; Regan, Meredith M; Chang, Peter

2014-03-01

We expanded the clinical usefulness of EPIC-CP (Expanded Prostate Cancer Index Composite for Clinical Practice) by evaluating its responsiveness to health related quality of life changes, defining the minimally important differences for an individual patient change in each domain and applying it to a sexual outcome prediction model. In 1,201 subjects from a previously described multicenter longitudinal cohort we modeled the EPIC-CP domain scores of each treatment group before treatment, and at short-term and long-term followup. We considered a posttreatment domain score change from pretreatment of 0.5 SD or greater clinically significant and p ≤ 0.01 statistically significant. We determined the domain minimally important differences using the pooled 0.5 SD of the 2, 6, 12 and 24-month posttreatment changes from pretreatment values. We then recalibrated an EPIC-CP based nomogram model predicting 2-year post-prostatectomy functional erection from that developed using EPIC-26. For each health related quality of life domain EPIC-CP was sensitive to similar posttreatment health related quality of life changes with time, as was observed using EPIC-26. The EPIC-CP minimally important differences in changes in the urinary incontinence, urinary irritation/obstruction, bowel, sexual and vitality/hormonal domains were 1.0, 1.3, 1.2, 1.6 and 1.0, respectively. The EPIC-CP based sexual prediction model performed well (AUC 0.76). It showed robust agreement with its EPIC-26 based counterpart with 10% or less predicted probability differences between models in 95% of individuals and a mean ± SD difference of 0.0 ± 0.05 across all individuals. EPIC-CP is responsive to health related quality of life changes during convalescence and it can be used to predict 2-year post-prostatectomy sexual outcomes. It can facilitate shared medical decision making and patient centered care. Copyright © 2014 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Identifying structural elements needed for development of a predictive life-history model for pallid and shovelnose sturgeons

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wildhaber, Mark L.; DeLonay, A.J.; Papoulias, D.M.; Galat, D.L.; Jacobson, R.B.; Simpkins, D.G.; Braaten, P.J.; Korschgen, C.E.; Mac, M.J.

2011-01-01

Intensive management of the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers has resulted in dramatic changes to the river systems and their biota. These changes have been implicated in the decline of the pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus), which has been listed as a United States federal endangered species. The sympatric shovelnose sturgeon (S. platorynchus) is more common and widespread but has also been in decline. The decline of pallid sturgeon is considered symptomatic of poor reproductive success and low or no recruitment. In order to organize information about these species and provide a basis for future development of a predictive model to help guide recovery efforts, we present an expert-vetted, conceptual life-history framework that incorporates the factors that affect reproduction, growth, and survival of shovelnose and pallid sturgeons.

Life Sciences Implications of Lunar Surface Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chappell, Steven P.; Norcross, Jason R.; Abercromby, Andrew F.; Gernhardt, Michael L.

2010-01-01

The purpose of this report is to document preliminary, predicted, life sciences implications of expected operational concepts for lunar surface extravehicular activity (EVA). Algorithms developed through simulation and testing in lunar analog environments were used to predict crew metabolic rates and ground reaction forces experienced during lunar EVA. Subsequently, the total metabolic energy consumption, the daily bone load stimulus, total oxygen needed, and other variables were calculated and provided to Human Research Program and Exploration Systems Mission Directorate stakeholders. To provide context to the modeling, the report includes an overview of some scenarios that have been considered. Concise descriptions of the analog testing and development of the algorithms are also provided. This document may be updated to remain current with evolving lunar or other planetary surface operations, assumptions and concepts, and to provide additional data and analyses collected during the ongoing analog research program.

Population projection and development of the loreyi leafworm, Mythimna loreyi, as affected by temperature: application of an age-stage, two-sex life table

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The loreyi leafworm, Mythimna (=Leucania) loreyi (Duponchel), has recently emerged as a major pest of grain crops in China. Little is known about its basic biology and ecology, making it difficult to predict its population dynamics. An age-stage, two-sex life table was constructed for this insect wh...

Predictive Models for Tomato Spotted Wilt Virus Spread Dynamics, Considering Frankliniella occidentalis Specific Life Processes as Influenced by the Virus

PubMed Central

Ogada, Pamella Akoth; Moualeu, Dany Pascal; Poehling, Hans-Michael

2016-01-01

Several models have been studied on predictive epidemics of arthropod vectored plant viruses in an attempt to bring understanding to the complex but specific relationship between the three cornered pathosystem (virus, vector and host plant), as well as their interactions with the environment. A large body of studies mainly focuses on weather based models as management tool for monitoring pests and diseases, with very few incorporating the contribution of vector’s life processes in the disease dynamics, which is an essential aspect when mitigating virus incidences in a crop stand. In this study, we hypothesized that the multiplication and spread of tomato spotted wilt virus (TSWV) in a crop stand is strongly related to its influences on Frankliniella occidentalis preferential behavior and life expectancy. Model dynamics of important aspects in disease development within TSWV-F. occidentalis-host plant interactions were developed, focusing on F. occidentalis’ life processes as influenced by TSWV. The results show that the influence of TSWV on F. occidentalis preferential behaviour leads to an estimated increase in relative acquisition rate of the virus, and up to 33% increase in transmission rate to healthy plants. Also, increased life expectancy; which relates to improved fitness, is dependent on the virus induced preferential behaviour, consequently promoting multiplication and spread of the virus in a crop stand. The development of vector–based models could further help in elucidating the role of tri-trophic interactions in agricultural disease systems. Use of the model to examine the components of the disease process could also boost our understanding on how specific epidemiological characteristics interact to cause diseases in crops. With this level of understanding we can efficiently develop more precise control strategies for the virus and the vector. PMID:27159134

Predictive Models for Tomato Spotted Wilt Virus Spread Dynamics, Considering Frankliniella occidentalis Specific Life Processes as Influenced by the Virus.

PubMed

Ogada, Pamella Akoth; Moualeu, Dany Pascal; Poehling, Hans-Michael

2016-01-01

Several models have been studied on predictive epidemics of arthropod vectored plant viruses in an attempt to bring understanding to the complex but specific relationship between the three cornered pathosystem (virus, vector and host plant), as well as their interactions with the environment. A large body of studies mainly focuses on weather based models as management tool for monitoring pests and diseases, with very few incorporating the contribution of vector's life processes in the disease dynamics, which is an essential aspect when mitigating virus incidences in a crop stand. In this study, we hypothesized that the multiplication and spread of tomato spotted wilt virus (TSWV) in a crop stand is strongly related to its influences on Frankliniella occidentalis preferential behavior and life expectancy. Model dynamics of important aspects in disease development within TSWV-F. occidentalis-host plant interactions were developed, focusing on F. occidentalis' life processes as influenced by TSWV. The results show that the influence of TSWV on F. occidentalis preferential behaviour leads to an estimated increase in relative acquisition rate of the virus, and up to 33% increase in transmission rate to healthy plants. Also, increased life expectancy; which relates to improved fitness, is dependent on the virus induced preferential behaviour, consequently promoting multiplication and spread of the virus in a crop stand. The development of vector-based models could further help in elucidating the role of tri-trophic interactions in agricultural disease systems. Use of the model to examine the components of the disease process could also boost our understanding on how specific epidemiological characteristics interact to cause diseases in crops. With this level of understanding we can efficiently develop more precise control strategies for the virus and the vector.

The Role of ADHD in Predicting the Development of Violent Behavior Among Juvenile Offenders: Participation Versus Frequency.

PubMed

Wojciechowski, Thomas W

2017-10-01

Past research has identified attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) as a risk factor for engagement in violent offending. Despite the link between the disorder and violent offending, this risk factor has yet to be examined as a predictor of heterogeneity in the development of violent offending among juvenile offenders. It is likely that the impulsivity, genetic link, and generally chronic disorder course which are characteristics of the disorder play roles in predicting violent offending, which is consistent with both self-control theory and general developmental theory related to early life deficits and life-course persistent offending. Past research has also elucidated a developmental trajectory model of violent offending, which is utilized by the present research. The present research examines ADHD as a risk factor predicting trajectory group assignment. The Pathways to Desistance data followed 1,354 juvenile offenders for 84 months following conviction for a serious offense. Using multinomial logistic regression, this study extends past research on the development of violent offending among juvenile offenders by examining ADHD as a risk factor predicting assignment to violent offending trajectory groups. Results indicate that meeting criteria for ADHD at baseline predicted membership to all trajectory groups relative to the Abstaining group when all covariates were included. This increase in risk is highest for the trajectory group characterized by the highest frequency of violent offending. This indicates the relevance of identifying and treating ADHD among juvenile offenders to best mitigate risk of violent recidivism throughout adolescence and early adulthood.

Intermittent Drug Dosing Intervals Guided by the Operational Multiple Dosing Half Lives for Predictable Plasma Accumulation and Fluctuation

PubMed Central

Grover, Anita; Benet, Leslie Z.

2013-01-01

Intermittent drug dosing intervals are usually initially guided by the terminal pharmacokinetic half life and are dependent on drug formulation. For chronic multiple dosing and for extended release dosage forms, the terminal half life often does not predict the plasma drug accumulation or fluctuation observed. We define and advance applications for the operational multiple dosing half lives for drug accumulation and fluctuation after multiple oral dosing at steady-state. Using Monte Carlo simulation, our results predict a way to maximize the operational multiple dosing half lives relative to the terminal half life by using a first-order absorption rate constant close to the terminal elimination rate constant in the design of extended release dosage forms. In this way, drugs that may be eliminated early in the development pipeline due to a relatively short half life can be formulated to be dosed at intervals three times the terminal half life, maximizing compliance, while maintaining tight plasma concentration accumulation and fluctuation ranges. We also present situations in which the operational multiple dosing half lives will be especially relevant in the determination of dosing intervals, including for drugs that follow a direct PKPD model and have a narrow therapeutic index, as the rate of concentration decrease after chronic multiple dosing (that is not the terminal half life) can be determined via simulation. These principles are illustrated with case studies on valproic acid, diazepam, and anti-hypertensives. PMID:21499748

Goal-directedness and personal identity as correlates of life outcomes.

PubMed

Goldman, Barry M; Masterson, Suzanne S; Locke, Edwin A; Groth, Markus; Jensen, David G

2002-08-01

Although much research has been conducted on goal setting, researchers have not examined goal-directedness or propensity to set goals as a stable human characteristic in adults. In this study, a survey was developed and distributed to 104 adult participants to assess their goal-directedness, personal identity, and various life outcomes. A theoretical model was developed and tested using structural equation modeling that proposed that both goal-directedness and personal identity should positivcly influence important life outcomes. Analysis showed that goal-directedness and personal identity are positively related to personal well-being, salary, and marital satisfaction. Further, personal identity was positively related to job satisfaction but, contrary to related research, goal-directedness did not predict job satisfaction.

Predicting Software Suitability Using a Bayesian Belief Network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beaver, Justin M.; Schiavone, Guy A.; Berrios, Joseph S.

2005-01-01

The ability to reliably predict the end quality of software under development presents a significant advantage for a development team. It provides an opportunity to address high risk components earlier in the development life cycle, when their impact is minimized. This research proposes a model that captures the evolution of the quality of a software product, and provides reliable forecasts of the end quality of the software being developed in terms of product suitability. Development team skill, software process maturity, and software problem complexity are hypothesized as driving factors of software product quality. The cause-effect relationships between these factors and the elements of software suitability are modeled using Bayesian Belief Networks, a machine learning method. This research presents a Bayesian Network for software quality, and the techniques used to quantify the factors that influence and represent software quality. The developed model is found to be effective in predicting the end product quality of small-scale software development efforts.

Development of failure model for nickel cadmium cells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gupta, A.

1980-01-01

The development of a method for the life prediction of nickel cadmium cells is discussed. The approach described involves acquiring an understanding of the mechanisms of degradation and failure and at the same time developing nondestructive evaluation techniques for the nickel cadmium cells. The development of a statistical failure model which will describe the mechanisms of degradation and failure is outlined.

Crop development related to temperature and photoperiod

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Plant development, or the progression of plants through their life cycle, has been of great interest in human history because of the need to know and predict when the harvested part of the plant was at the optimum stage. This knowledge was especially important (even vital) in medicinal plants, where...

Mission Life Thermal Analysis and Environment Correlation for the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garrison, Matthew B.; Peabody, Hume

2012-01-01

Standard thermal analysis practices include stacking worst-case conditions including environmental heat loads, thermo-optical properties and orbital beta angles. This results in the design being driven by a few bounding thermal cases, although those cases may only represent a very small portion of the actual mission life. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Thermal Branch developed a procedure to predict the flight temperatures over the entire mission life, assuming a known beta angle progression, variation in the thermal environment, and a degradation rate in the coatings. This was applied to the Global Precipitation Measurement core spacecraft. In order to assess the validity of this process, this work applies the similar process to the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter. A flight-correlated thermal model was exercised to give predictions of the thermal performance over the mission life. These results were then compared against flight data from the first two years of the spacecraft s use. This is used to validate the process and to suggest possible improvements for future analyses.

Statistical analysis of lithium iron sulfide status cell cycle life and failure mode

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gay, E.C.; Battles, J.E.; Miller, W.E.

1983-08-01

A statistical model was developed for life cycle testing of electrochemical cell life cycle trials and verified experimentally. The Weibull distribution was selected to predict the end of life for a cell, based on a 20 percent loss of initial stabilized capacity or a decrease to less than 95 percent coulombic efficiency. Groups of 12 or more Li-alloy/FeS cells were cycled to determine the mean time to failure (MTTF) and also to identify the failure modes. The cells were all full size electric vehicle batteries with 150-350 A-hr capacity. The Weibull shape factors were determined and verified in prediction ofmore » the number of cell failures in two 10 cell modules. The short circuit failure in the cells with BN-felt and MgO powder separators were found to be caused by the formation of Li-Al protrusions that penetrated the BN-felt separators, and the extrusion of active material at the edge of the electrodes.« less

Life history trade-off moderates model predictions of diversity loss from climate change.

PubMed

Moor, Helen

2017-01-01

Climate change can trigger species range shifts, local extinctions and changes in diversity. Species interactions and dispersal capacity are important mediators of community responses to climate change. The interaction between multispecies competition and variation in dispersal capacity has recently been shown to exacerbate the effects of climate change on diversity and to increase predictions of extinction risk dramatically. Dispersal capacity, however, is part of a species' overall ecological strategy and are likely to trade off with other aspects of its life history that influence population growth and persistence. In plants, a well-known example is the trade-off between seed mass and seed number. The presence of such a trade-off might buffer the diversity loss predicted by models with random but neutral (i.e. not impacting fitness otherwise) differences in dispersal capacity. Using a trait-based metacommunity model along a warming climatic gradient the effect of three different dispersal scenarios on model predictions of diversity change were compared. Adding random variation in species dispersal capacity caused extinctions by the introduction of strong fitness differences due an inherent property of the dispersal kernel. Simulations including a fitness-equalising trade-off based on empirical relationships between seed mass (here affecting dispersal distance, establishment probability, and seedling biomass) and seed number (fecundity) maintained higher initial species diversity and predicted lower extinction risk and diversity loss during climate change than simulations with variable dispersal capacity. Large seeded species persisted during climate change, but developed lags behind their climate niche that may cause extinction debts. Small seeded species were more extinction-prone during climate change but tracked their niches through dispersal and colonisation, despite competitive resistance from residents. Life history trade-offs involved in coexistence mechanisms may increase community resilience to future climate change and are useful guides for model development.

Notched fatigue of single crystal PWA 1480 at turbine attachment temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meyer, T. G.; Nissley, D. M.; Swanson, G. A.

1989-01-01

The focus is on the lower temperature, uncoated and notched features of gas turbine blades. Constitutive and fatigue life prediction models applicable to these regions are being developed. Fatigue results are presented which were obtained thus far. Fatigue tests are being conducted on PWA 1480 single crystal material using smooth strain controlled specimens and three different notched specimens. Isothermal fatigue tests were conducted at 1200, 1400, and 1600 F. The bulk of the tests were conducted at 1200 F. The strain controlled tests were conducted at 0.4 percent per second strain rate and the notched tests were cycled at 1.0 cycle per second. A clear orientation dependence is observed in the smooth strain controlled fatigue results. The fatigue lifes of the thin, mild notched specimens agree fairly well with this smooth data when elastic stress range is used as a correlating parameter. Finite element analyses were used to calculate notch stresses. Fatigue testing will continue to further explore the trends observed thus far. Constitutive and life prediction models are being developed.

Life prediction and constitutive models for engine hot section anisotropic materials program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Swanson, G. A.; Linask, I.; Nissley, D. M.; Norris, P. P.; Meyer, T. G.; Walker, K. P.

1986-01-01

This report presents the results of the first year of a program designed to develop life prediction and constitutive models for two coated single crystal alloys used in gas turbine airfoils. The two alloys are PWA 1480 and Alloy 185. The two oxidation resistant coatings are PWA 273, an aluminide coating, and PWA 286, an overlay NiCoCrAlY coating. To obtain constitutive and/or fatigue data, tests were conducted on coated and uncoated PWA 1480 specimens tensilely loaded in the 100 , 110 , 111 , and 123 directions. A literature survey of constitutive models was completed for both single crystal alloys and metallic coating materials; candidate models were selected. One constitutive model under consideration for single crystal alloys applies Walker's micromechanical viscoplastic formulation to all slip systems participating in the single crystal deformation. The constitutive models for the overlay coating correlate the viscoplastic data well. For the aluminide coating, a unique test method is under development. LCF and TMF tests are underway. The two coatings caused a significant drop in fatigue life, and each produced a much different failure mechanism.

Amygdala functional connectivity, HPA axis genetic variation, and life stress in children and relations to anxiety and emotion regulation

PubMed Central

Pagliaccio, David; Luby, Joan L.; Bogdan, Ryan; Agrawal, Arpana; Gaffrey, Michael S.; Belden, Andrew C.; Botteron, Kelly N.; Harms, Michael P.; Barch, Deanna M.

2015-01-01

Internalizing pathology is related to alterations in amygdala resting state functional connectivity, potentially implicating altered emotional reactivity and/or emotion regulation in the etiological pathway. Importantly, there is accumulating evidence that stress exposure and genetic vulnerability impact amygdala structure/function and risk for internalizing pathology. The present study examined whether early life stress and genetic profile scores (10 single nucleotide polymorphisms within four hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis genes: CRHR1, NR3C2, NR3C1, and FKBP5) predicted individual differences in amygdala functional connectivity in school-age children (9–14 year olds; N=120). Whole-brain regression analyses indicated that increasing genetic ‘risk’ predicted alterations in amygdala connectivity to the caudate and postcentral gyrus. Experience of more stressful and traumatic life events predicted weakened amygdala-anterior cingulate cortex connectivity. Genetic ‘risk’ and stress exposure interacted to predict weakened connectivity between the amygdala and the inferior and middle frontal gyri, caudate, and parahippocampal gyrus in those children with the greatest genetic and environmental risk load. Furthermore, amygdala connectivity longitudinally predicted anxiety symptoms and emotion regulation skills at a later follow-up. Amygdala connectivity mediated effects of life stress on anxiety and of genetic variants on emotion regulation. The current results suggest that considering the unique and interacting effects of biological vulnerability and environmental risk factors may be key to understanding the development of altered amygdala functional connectivity, a potential factor in the risk trajectory for internalizing pathology. PMID:26595470

Explicit prediction of hail using multimoment microphysics schemes for a hailstorm of 19 March 2014 in eastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Liping; Xue, Ming; Zhu, Kefeng; Zhou, Bowen

2017-07-01

In the late afternoon of 19 March 2014, a severe hailstorm swept through eastern central Zhejiang province, China. The storm produced golf ball-sized hail, strong winds, and lighting, lasting approximately 1 h over the coastal city of Taizhou. The Advanced Regional Prediction System is used to simulate the hailstorm using different configurations of the Milbrandt-Yau microphysics scheme that predict one, two, or three moments of the hydrometeor particle size distribution. Simulated fields, including accumulated precipitation and maximum estimated hail size (MESH), are verified against rain gauge observations and radar-derived MESH, respectively. For the case of the 19 March 2014 storms, the general evolution is better predicted with multimoment microphysics schemes than with the one-moment scheme; the three-moment scheme produces the best forecast. Predictions from the three-moment scheme qualitatively agree with observations in terms of size and amount of hail reaching the surface. The life cycle of the hailstorm is analyzed, using the most skillful, three-moment forecast. Based upon the tendency of surface hail mass flux, the hailstorm life cycle can be divided into three stages: developing, mature, and dissipating. Microphysical budget analyses are used to examine microphysical processes and characteristics during these three stages. The vertical structures within the storm and their link to environmental shear conditions are discussed; together with the rapid fall of hailstones, these structures and conditions appear to dictate this pulse storm's short life span. Finally, a conceptual model for the life cycle of pulse hailstorms is proposed.

Amygdala functional connectivity, HPA axis genetic variation, and life stress in children and relations to anxiety and emotion regulation.

PubMed

Pagliaccio, David; Luby, Joan L; Bogdan, Ryan; Agrawal, Arpana; Gaffrey, Michael S; Belden, Andrew C; Botteron, Kelly N; Harms, Michael P; Barch, Deanna M

2015-11-01

Internalizing pathology is related to alterations in amygdala resting state functional connectivity, potentially implicating altered emotional reactivity and/or emotion regulation in the etiological pathway. Importantly, there is accumulating evidence that stress exposure and genetic vulnerability impact amygdala structure/function and risk for internalizing pathology. The present study examined whether early life stress and genetic profile scores (10 single nucleotide polymorphisms within 4 hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis genes: CRHR1, NR3C2, NR3C1, and FKBP5) predicted individual differences in amygdala functional connectivity in school-age children (9- to 14-year-olds; N = 120). Whole-brain regression analyses indicated that increasing genetic "risk" predicted alterations in amygdala connectivity to the caudate and postcentral gyrus. Experience of more stressful and traumatic life events predicted weakened amygdala-anterior cingulate cortex connectivity. Genetic "risk" and stress exposure interacted to predict weakened connectivity between the amygdala and the inferior and middle frontal gyri, caudate, and parahippocampal gyrus in those children with the greatest genetic and environmental risk load. Furthermore, amygdala connectivity longitudinally predicted anxiety symptoms and emotion regulation skills at a later follow-up. Amygdala connectivity mediated effects of life stress on anxiety and of genetic variants on emotion regulation. The current results suggest that considering the unique and interacting effects of biological vulnerability and environmental risk factors may be key to understanding the development of altered amygdala functional connectivity, a potential factor in the risk trajectory for internalizing pathology. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Cost analysis of life support systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yakut, M. M.

1973-01-01

A methodology was developed to predict realistic relative cost of Life Support Systems (LSS) and to define areas of major cost impacts in the development cycle. Emphasis was given to tailoring the cost data for usage by program planners and designers. The equipment classifications used based on the degree of refinement were as follows: (1) Working model; (2) low-fidelity prototype; (3) high-fidelity prototype; and (4) flight-qualified system. The major advanced LSS evaluated included the following: (1) Carbon dioxide removal; (2) oxygen recovery systems; (3) water recovery systems; (4) atmosphere analysis system.

Prognostic modelling options for remaining useful life estimation by industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sikorska, J. Z.; Hodkiewicz, M.; Ma, L.

2011-07-01

Over recent years a significant amount of research has been undertaken to develop prognostic models that can be used to predict the remaining useful life of engineering assets. Implementations by industry have only had limited success. By design, models are subject to specific assumptions and approximations, some of which are mathematical, while others relate to practical implementation issues such as the amount of data required to validate and verify a proposed model. Therefore, appropriate model selection for successful practical implementation requires not only a mathematical understanding of each model type, but also an appreciation of how a particular business intends to utilise a model and its outputs. This paper discusses business issues that need to be considered when selecting an appropriate modelling approach for trial. It also presents classification tables and process flow diagrams to assist industry and research personnel select appropriate prognostic models for predicting the remaining useful life of engineering assets within their specific business environment. The paper then explores the strengths and weaknesses of the main prognostics model classes to establish what makes them better suited to certain applications than to others and summarises how each have been applied to engineering prognostics. Consequently, this paper should provide a starting point for young researchers first considering options for remaining useful life prediction. The models described in this paper are Knowledge-based (expert and fuzzy), Life expectancy (stochastic and statistical), Artificial Neural Networks, and Physical models.

Different orders of lives in the universe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sikdar, M. K.

2014-08-01

In this article, main life sensitive elements involved in life creating processes on earth have been explored. An in-depth study has been made to search out material abundances of all life sensitive elements in the periodic table mainly on earth, celestial bodies like star, binary stars, extra-solar system, extra solar planets and galaxies etc. at large. Extensive review has been made to project how life processes are being triggered in our earth and intakes required for continuous metabolism, mutation, reproducibility etc. Finally on the basis of ideas developed about the life processes on earth, other life chains that may happen to exist on other celestial bodies have been predicted. The constraints and barriers that stand in the way of communications have also been pointed out.

Prediction of atmospheric degradation data for POPs by gene expression programming.

PubMed

Luan, F; Si, H Z; Liu, H T; Wen, Y Y; Zhang, X Y

2008-01-01

Quantitative structure-activity relationship models for the prediction of the mean and the maximum atmospheric degradation half-life values of persistent organic pollutants were developed based on the linear heuristic method (HM) and non-linear gene expression programming (GEP). Molecular descriptors, calculated from the structures alone, were used to represent the characteristics of the compounds. HM was used both to pre-select the whole descriptor sets and to build the linear model. GEP yielded satisfactory prediction results: the square of the correlation coefficient r(2) was 0.80 and 0.81 for the mean and maximum half-life values of the test set, and the root mean square errors were 0.448 and 0.426, respectively. The results of this work indicate that the GEP is a very promising tool for non-linear approximations.

Fatigue behavior of ULTIMETRTM alloy: Experiment and theoretical modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Liang

ULTIMETRTM alloy is a commercial Co-26Cr-9Ni (weight percent) superalloy, which possesses excellent resistance to both wear and corrosion. In order to extend the structural applications of this alloy and improve the fundamental understanding of the fatigue damage mechanisms, stress- and strain-controlled fatigue tests were performed at various temperatures and in different environments. The stress- and strain-life data were developed for the structural design and engineering applications of this material. Fractographic studies characterized the crack-initiation and propagation behavior of the alloy. Microstructure evolution during fatigue was revealed by x-ray diffraction, scanning electron microscopy, and transmission electron microscopy. Specifically, it was found that the metastable face-centered-cubic structure of this alloy in the as-received condition could be transformed into a hexagonal-close-packed structure either under the action of plastic deformation at room temperature, or due to the aging and cyclic deformation at intermediate temperatures. This interesting observation constructed a sound basis for the alloy development. The dominant mechanisms, which control the fatigue behavior of ULTIMET alloy, were characterized. High-speed, high-resolution infrared (IR) thermography, as a non-contact, full-field, and nondestructive technique, was used to characterize the damage during fatigue. The temperature variations during each fatigue cycle, which were due to the thermal-elastic-plastic effect, were observed and related to stress-strain analyses. The temperature evolution during fatigue manifested the cumulative fatigue damage process. A constitutive model was developed to predict thermal and mechanical responses of ULTIMET alloy subjected to cyclic deformation. The predicted cyclic stress-strain responses and temperature variations were found to be in good agreement with the experimental results. In addition, a fatigue life prediction model was developed based on the strain-energy consideration, and the measured temperature could be utilized as an index for fatigue-life prediction.

Primates and the evolution of long, slow life histories.

PubMed

Jones, James Holland

2011-09-27

Primates are characterized by relatively late ages at first reproduction, long lives and low fertility. Together, these traits define a life-history of reduced reproductive effort. Understanding the optimal allocation of reproductive effort, and specifically reduced reproductive effort, has been one of the key problems motivating the development of life-history theory. Because of their unusual constellation of life-history traits, primates play an important role in the continued development of life-history theory. In this review, I present the evidence for the reduced reproductive effort life histories of primates and discuss the ways that such life-history tactics are understood in contemporary theory. Such tactics are particularly consistent with the predictions of stochastic demographic models, suggesting a key role for environmental variability in the evolution of primate life histories. The tendency for primates to specialize in high-quality, high-variability food items may make them particularly susceptible to environmental variability and explains their low reproductive-effort tactics. I discuss recent applications of life-history theory to human evolution and emphasize the continuity between models used to explain peculiarities of human reproduction and senescence with the long, slow life histories of primates more generally. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Primates and the Evolution of Long-Slow Life Histories

PubMed Central

Jones, James Holland

2011-01-01

Summary Primates are characterized by relatively late ages at first reproduction, long lives and low fertility. Together, these traits define a life-history of reduced reproductive effort. Understanding the optimal allocation of reproductive effort, and specifically reduced reproductive effort, has been one of the key problems motivating the development of life history theory. Because of their unusual constellation of life-history traits, primates play an important role in the continued development of life history theory. In this review, I present the evidence for the reduced reproductive effort life histories of primates and discuss the ways that such life-history tactics are understood in contemporary theory. Such tactics are particularly consistent with the predictions of stochastic demographic models, suggesting a key role for environmental variability in the evolution of primate life histories. The tendency for primates to specialize in high-quality, high-variability food items may make them particularly susceptible to environmental variability and explain their low reproductive-effort tactics. I discuss recent applications of life history theory to human evolution and emphasize the continuity between models used to explain peculiarities of human reproduction and senescence with the long, slow life histories of primates more generally. PMID:21959161

Uncertainty Quantification in Remaining Useful Life of Aerospace Components using State Space Models and Inverse FORM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sankararaman, Shankar; Goebel, Kai

2013-01-01

This paper investigates the use of the inverse first-order reliability method (inverse- FORM) to quantify the uncertainty in the remaining useful life (RUL) of aerospace components. The prediction of remaining useful life is an integral part of system health prognosis, and directly helps in online health monitoring and decision-making. However, the prediction of remaining useful life is affected by several sources of uncertainty, and therefore it is necessary to quantify the uncertainty in the remaining useful life prediction. While system parameter uncertainty and physical variability can be easily included in inverse-FORM, this paper extends the methodology to include: (1) future loading uncertainty, (2) process noise; and (3) uncertainty in the state estimate. The inverse-FORM method has been used in this paper to (1) quickly obtain probability bounds on the remaining useful life prediction; and (2) calculate the entire probability distribution of remaining useful life prediction, and the results are verified against Monte Carlo sampling. The proposed methodology is illustrated using a numerical example.

Drug Distribution. Part 1. Models to Predict Membrane Partitioning.

PubMed

Nagar, Swati; Korzekwa, Ken

2017-03-01

Tissue partitioning is an important component of drug distribution and half-life. Protein binding and lipid partitioning together determine drug distribution. Two structure-based models to predict partitioning into microsomal membranes are presented. An orientation-based model was developed using a membrane template and atom-based relative free energy functions to select drug conformations and orientations for neutral and basic drugs. The resulting model predicts the correct membrane positions for nine compounds tested, and predicts the membrane partitioning for n = 67 drugs with an average fold-error of 2.4. Next, a more facile descriptor-based model was developed for acids, neutrals and bases. This model considers the partitioning of neutral and ionized species at equilibrium, and can predict membrane partitioning with an average fold-error of 2.0 (n = 92 drugs). Together these models suggest that drug orientation is important for membrane partitioning and that membrane partitioning can be well predicted from physicochemical properties.

RNA catalysis and the origins of life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orgel, Leslie E.

1986-01-01

The role of RNA catalysis in the origins of life is considered in connection with the discovery of riboszymes, which are RNA molecules that catalyze sequence-specific hydrolysis and transesterification reactions of RNA substrates. Due to this discovery, theories positing protein-free replication as preceding the appearance of the genetic code are more plausible. The scope of RNA catalysis in biology and chemistry is discussed, and it is noted that the development of methods to select (or predict) RNA sequences with preassigned catalytic functions would be a major contribution to the study of life's origins.

Subjective Life Expectancy Among College Students.

PubMed

Rodemann, Alyssa E; Arigo, Danielle

2017-09-14

Establishing healthy habits in college is important for long-term health. Despite existing health promotion efforts, many college students fail to meet recommendations for behaviors such as healthy eating and exercise, which may be due to low perceived risk for health problems. The goals of this study were to examine: (1) the accuracy of life expectancy predictions, (2) potential individual differences in accuracy (i.e., gender and conscientiousness), and (3) potential change in accuracy after inducing awareness of current health behaviors. College students from a small northeastern university completed an electronic survey, including demographics, initial predictions of their life expectancy, and their recent health behaviors. At the end of the survey, participants were asked to predict their life expectancy a second time. Their health data were then submitted to a validated online algorithm to generate calculated life expectancy. Participants significantly overestimated their initial life expectancy, and neither gender nor conscientiousness was related to the accuracy of these predictions. Further, subjective life expectancy decreased from initial to final predictions. These findings suggest that life expectancy perceptions present a unique-and potentially modifiable-psychological process that could influence college students' self-care.

Preschool life skills: Recent advancements and future directions.

PubMed

Fahmie, Tara A; Luczynski, Kevin C

2018-01-01

Over the past decade, researchers have replicated and extended research on the preschool life skills (PLS) program developed by Hanley, Heal, Tiger, and Ingvarsson (2007). This review summarizes recent research with respect to maximizing skill acquisition, improving generality, evaluating feasibility and acceptability, and testing predictions of the initial PLS study. For each area, we suggest directions for future research. © 2018 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

Evaluation program for secondary spacecraft cells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Christy, D. E.; Harkness, J. D.

1973-01-01

A life cycle test of secondary electric batteries for spacecraft applications was conducted. A sample number of nickel cadmium batteries were subjected to general performance tests to determine the limit of their actual capabilities. Weaknesses discovered in cell design are reported and aid in research and development efforts toward improving the reliability of spacecraft batteries. A statistical analysis of the life cycle prediction and cause of failure versus test conditions is provided.

Cultural variation in the use of current life satisfaction to predict the future.

PubMed

Oishi, S; Wyer, R S; Colcombe, S J

2000-03-01

Three studies examined cultural and situational influences on the tendency for people to use their current life satisfaction to predict future life events. On the basis of the self-enhancement literature, it was predicted that either writing about a positive personal experience or reading about another's negative experience would lead European Americans to focus their attention on internal attributes and thus would lead them to use their current life satisfaction in predicting the future. Conversely, on the basis of the self-criticism literature, it was predicted that these same conditions would lead Asian Americans to focus their attention on external factors and, therefore, would decrease their likelihood of using their current life satisfaction to predict the future. Studies 1 and 2 supported these hypotheses. Study 3 showed that these patterns could be obtained by subliminally priming concepts associated with individualism and collectivism.

Predicting concrete corrosion of sewers using artificial neural network.

PubMed

Jiang, Guangming; Keller, Jurg; Bond, Philip L; Yuan, Zhiguo

2016-04-01

Corrosion is often a major failure mechanism for concrete sewers and under such circumstances the sewer service life is largely determined by the progression of microbially induced concrete corrosion. The modelling of sewer processes has become possible due to the improved understanding of in-sewer transformation. Recent systematic studies about the correlation between the corrosion processes and sewer environment factors should be utilized to improve the prediction capability of service life by sewer models. This paper presents an artificial neural network (ANN)-based approach for modelling the concrete corrosion processes in sewers. The approach included predicting the time for the corrosion to initiate and then predicting the corrosion rate after the initiation period. The ANN model was trained and validated with long-term (4.5 years) corrosion data obtained in laboratory corrosion chambers, and further verified with field measurements in real sewers across Australia. The trained model estimated the corrosion initiation time and corrosion rates very close to those measured in Australian sewers. The ANN model performed better than a multiple regression model also developed on the same dataset. Additionally, the ANN model can serve as a prediction framework for sewer service life, which can be progressively improved and expanded by including corrosion rates measured in different sewer conditions. Furthermore, the proposed methodology holds promise to facilitate the construction of analytical models associated with corrosion processes of concrete sewers. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Determination of Turboprop Reduction Gearbox System Fatigue Life and Reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaretsky, Erwin V.; Lewicki, David G.; Savage, Michael; Vlcek, Brian L.

2007-01-01

Two computational models to determine the fatigue life and reliability of a commercial turboprop gearbox are compared with each other and with field data. These models are (1) Monte Carlo simulation of randomly selected lives of individual bearings and gears comprising the system and (2) two-parameter Weibull distribution function for bearings and gears comprising the system using strict-series system reliability to combine the calculated individual component lives in the gearbox. The Monte Carlo simulation included the virtual testing of 744,450 gearboxes. Two sets of field data were obtained from 64 gearboxes that were first-run to removal for cause, were refurbished and placed back in service, and then were second-run until removal for cause. A series of equations were empirically developed from the Monte Carlo simulation to determine the statistical variation in predicted life and Weibull slope as a function of the number of gearboxes failed. The resultant L(sub 10) life from the field data was 5,627 hr. From strict-series system reliability, the predicted L(sub 10) life was 774 hr. From the Monte Carlo simulation, the median value for the L(sub 10) gearbox lives equaled 757 hr. Half of the gearbox L(sub 10) lives will be less than this value and the other half more. The resultant L(sub 10) life of the second-run (refurbished) gearboxes was 1,334 hr. The apparent load-life exponent p for the roller bearings is 5.2. Were the bearing lives to be recalculated with a load-life exponent p equal to 5.2, the predicted L(sub 10) life of the gearbox would be equal to the actual life obtained in the field. The component failure distribution of the gearbox from the Monte Carlo simulation was nearly identical to that using the strict-series system reliability analysis, proving the compatibility of these methods.

Effect of Individual Component Life Distribution on Engine Life Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaretsky, Erwin V.; Hendricks, Robert C.; Soditus, Sherry M.

2003-01-01

The effect of individual engine component life distributions on engine life prediction was determined. A Weibull-based life and reliability analysis of the NASA Energy Efficient Engine was conducted. The engine s life at a 95 and 99.9 percent probability of survival was determined based upon the engine manufacturer s original life calculations and assumed values of each of the component s cumulative life distributions as represented by a Weibull slope. The lives of the high-pressure turbine (HPT) disks and blades were also evaluated individually and as a system in a similar manner. Knowing the statistical cumulative distribution of each engine component with reasonable engineering certainty is a condition precedent to predicting the life and reliability of an entire engine. The life of a system at a given reliability will be less than the lowest-lived component in the system at the same reliability (probability of survival). Where Weibull slopes of all the engine components are equal, the Weibull slope had a minimal effect on engine L(sub 0.1) life prediction. However, at a probability of survival of 95 percent (L(sub 5) life), life decreased with increasing Weibull slope.

Modeling of rolling element bearing mechanics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greenhill, L. M.

1991-01-01

Roller element bearings provide the primary mechanical interface between rotating and nonrotating components in the high performance turbomachinery of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME). Knowledge of bearing behavior under various loading and environmental conditions is essential to predicting and understanding the overall behavior of turbopumps, including rotordynamic stability, critical speeds and bearing life. The objective is to develop mathematical models and computer programs to describe the mechanical behavior of ball and cylinder roller bearings under the loading and environmental conditions encountered in the SSME and future high performance rocket engines. This includes characteristics such as nonlinear load/motion relationships, stiffness and damping, rolling element loads for life prediction, and roller and cage stability.

Life history and spatial traits predict extinction risk due to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pearson, Richard G.; Stanton, Jessica C.; Shoemaker, Kevin T.; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E.; Ersts, Peter J.; Horning, Ned; Fordham, Damien A.; Raxworthy, Christopher J.; Ryu, Hae Yeong; McNees, Jason; Akçakaya, H. Reşit

2014-03-01

There is an urgent need to develop effective vulnerability assessments for evaluating the conservation status of species in a changing climate. Several new assessment approaches have been proposed for evaluating the vulnerability of species to climate change based on the expectation that established assessments such as the IUCN Red List need revising or superseding in light of the threat that climate change brings. However, although previous studies have identified ecological and life history attributes that characterize declining species or those listed as threatened, no study so far has undertaken a quantitative analysis of the attributes that cause species to be at high risk of extinction specifically due to climate change. We developed a simulation approach based on generic life history types to show here that extinction risk due to climate change can be predicted using a mixture of spatial and demographic variables that can be measured in the present day without the need for complex forecasting models. Most of the variables we found to be important for predicting extinction risk, including occupied area and population size, are already used in species conservation assessments, indicating that present systems may be better able to identify species vulnerable to climate change than previously thought. Therefore, although climate change brings many new conservation challenges, we find that it may not be fundamentally different from other threats in terms of assessing extinction risks.

A model for the progressive failure of laminated composite structural components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allen, D. H.; Lo, D. C.

1991-01-01

Laminated continuous fiber polymeric composites are capable of sustaining substantial load induced microstructural damage prior to component failure. Because this damage eventually leads to catastrophic failure, it is essential to capture the mechanics of progressive damage in any cogent life prediction model. For the past several years the authors have been developing one solution approach to this problem. In this approach the mechanics of matrix cracking and delamination are accounted for via locally averaged internal variables which account for the kinematics of microcracking. Damage progression is predicted by using phenomenologically based damage evolution laws which depend on the load history. The result is a nonlinear and path dependent constitutive model which has previously been implemented to a finite element computer code for analysis of structural components. Using an appropriate failure model, this algorithm can be used to predict component life. In this paper the model will be utilized to demonstrate the ability to predict the load path dependence of the damage and stresses in plates subjected to fatigue loading.

Research notes : best practices for traffic impact studies.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-11-01

Traffic Impact Studies (TISs) are used by the Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT) and staff of other transportation agencies to forecast future system effects from proposed development projects and to predict the useful life of a transportatio...

Development and Life Prediction of Erosion Resistant Turbine Low Conductivity Thermal Barrier Coatings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhu, Dongming; Miller, Robert A.; Kuczmarski, Maria A.

2010-01-01

Future rotorcraft propulsion systems are required to operate under highly-loaded conditions and in harsh sand erosion environments, thereby imposing significant material design and durability issues. The incorporation of advanced thermal barrier coatings (TBC) in high pressure turbine systems enables engine designs with higher inlet temperatures, thus improving the engine efficiency, power density and reliability. The impact and erosion resistance of turbine thermal barrier coating systems are crucial to the turbine coating technology application, because a robust turbine blade TBC system is a prerequisite for fully utilizing the potential coating technology benefit in the rotorcraft propulsion. This paper describes the turbine blade TBC development in addressing the coating impact and erosion resistance. Advanced thermal barrier coating systems with improved performance have also been validated in laboratory simulated engine erosion and/or thermal gradient environments. A preliminary life prediction modeling approach to emphasize the turbine blade coating erosion is also presented.

A Probabilistic Approach to Predict Thermal Fatigue Life for Ball Grid Array Solder Joints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Helin; Wang, Kuisheng

2011-11-01

Numerous studies of the reliability of solder joints have been performed. Most life prediction models are limited to a deterministic approach. However, manufacturing induces uncertainty in the geometry parameters of solder joints, and the environmental temperature varies widely due to end-user diversity, creating uncertainties in the reliability of solder joints. In this study, a methodology for accounting for variation in the lifetime prediction for lead-free solder joints of ball grid array packages (PBGA) is demonstrated. The key aspects of the solder joint parameters and the cyclic temperature range related to reliability are involved. Probabilistic solutions of the inelastic strain range and thermal fatigue life based on the Engelmaier model are developed to determine the probability of solder joint failure. The results indicate that the standard deviation increases significantly when more random variations are involved. Using the probabilistic method, the influence of each variable on the thermal fatigue life is quantified. This information can be used to optimize product design and process validation acceptance criteria. The probabilistic approach creates the opportunity to identify the root causes of failed samples from product fatigue tests and field returns. The method can be applied to better understand how variation affects parameters of interest in an electronic package design with area array interconnections.

Feasibility of Using Neural Network Models to Accelerate the Testing of Mechanical Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fusaro, Robert L.

1998-01-01

Verification testing is an important aspect of the design process for mechanical mechanisms, and full-scale, full-length life testing is typically used to qualify any new component for use in space. However, as the required life specification is increased, full-length life tests become more costly and lengthen the development time. At the NASA Lewis Research Center, we theorized that neural network systems may be able to model the operation of a mechanical device. If so, the resulting neural network models could simulate long-term mechanical testing with data from a short-term test. This combination of computer modeling and short-term mechanical testing could then be used to verify the reliability of mechanical systems, thereby eliminating the costs associated with long-term testing. Neural network models could also enable designers to predict the performance of mechanisms at the conceptual design stage by entering the critical parameters as input and running the model to predict performance. The purpose of this study was to assess the potential of using neural networks to predict the performance and life of mechanical systems. To do this, we generated a neural network system to model wear obtained from three accelerated testing devices: 1) A pin-on-disk tribometer; 2) A line-contact rub-shoe tribometer; 3) A four-ball tribometer.

Remaining useful life assessment of lithium-ion batteries in implantable medical devices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Chao; Ye, Hui; Jain, Gaurav; Schmidt, Craig

2018-01-01

This paper presents a prognostic study on lithium-ion batteries in implantable medical devices, in which a hybrid data-driven/model-based method is employed for remaining useful life assessment. The method is developed on and evaluated against data from two sets of lithium-ion prismatic cells used in implantable applications exhibiting distinct fade performance: 1) eight cells from Medtronic, PLC whose rates of capacity fade appear to be stable and gradually decrease over a 10-year test duration; and 2) eight cells from Manufacturer X whose rates appear to be greater and show sharp increase after some period over a 1.8-year test duration. The hybrid method enables online prediction of remaining useful life for predictive maintenance/control. It consists of two modules: 1) a sparse Bayesian learning module (data-driven) for inferring capacity from charge-related features; and 2) a recursive Bayesian filtering module (model-based) for updating empirical capacity fade models and predicting remaining useful life. A generic particle filter is adopted to implement recursive Bayesian filtering for the cells from the first set, whose capacity fade behavior can be represented by a single fade model; a multiple model particle filter with fixed-lag smoothing is proposed for the cells from the second data set, whose capacity fade behavior switches between multiple fade models.

A Factor Analytic Model of Drug-Related Behavior in Adolescence and Its Impact on Arrests at Multiple Stages of the Life Course

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Objectives Recognizing the inherent variability of drug-related behaviors, this study develops an empirically-driven and holistic model of drug-related behavior during adolescence using factor analysis to simultaneously model multiple drug behaviors. Methods The factor analytic model uncovers latent dimensions of drug-related behaviors, rather than patterns of individuals. These latent dimensions are treated as empirical typologies which are then used to predict an individual’s number of arrests accrued at multiple phases of the life course. The data are robust enough to simultaneously capture drug behavior measures typically considered in isolation in the literature, and to allow for behavior to change and evolve over the period of adolescence. Results Results show that factor analysis is capable of developing highly descriptive patterns of drug offending, and that these patterns have great utility in predicting arrests. Results further demonstrate that while drug behavior patterns are predictive of arrests at the end of adolescence for both males and females, the impacts on arrests are longer lasting for females. Conclusions The various facets of drug behaviors have been a long-time concern of criminological research. However, the ability to model multiple behaviors simultaneously is often constrained by data that do not measure the constructs fully. Factor analysis is shown to be a useful technique for modeling adolescent drug involvement patterns in a way that accounts for the multitude and variability of possible behaviors, and in predicting future negative life outcomes, such as arrests. PMID:28435183

A Critical Plane-energy Model for Multiaxial Fatigue Life Prediction of Homogeneous and Heterogeneous Materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Haoyang

A new critical plane-energy model is proposed in this thesis for multiaxial fatigue life prediction of homogeneous and heterogeneous materials. Brief review of existing methods, especially on the critical plane-based and energy-based methods, are given first. Special focus is on one critical plane approach which has been shown to work for both brittle and ductile metals. The key idea is to automatically change the critical plane orientation with respect to different materials and stress states. One potential drawback of the developed model is that it needs an empirical calibration parameter for non-proportional multiaxial loadings since only the strain terms are used and the out-of-phase hardening cannot be considered. The energy-based model using the critical plane concept is proposed with help of the Mroz-Garud hardening rule to explicitly include the effect of non-proportional hardening under fatigue cyclic loadings. Thus, the empirical calibration for non-proportional loading is not needed since the out-of-phase hardening is naturally included in the stress calculation. The model predictions are compared with experimental data from open literature and it is shown the proposed model can work for both proportional and non-proportional loadings without the empirical calibration. Next, the model is extended for the fatigue analysis of heterogeneous materials integrating with finite element method. Fatigue crack initiation of representative volume of heterogeneous materials is analyzed using the developed critical plane-energy model and special focus is on the microstructure effect on the multiaxial fatigue life predictions. Several conclusions and future work is drawn based on the proposed study.

Stage-Specific Changes in Physiological and Life-History Responses to Elevated Temperature and Pco2 during the Larval Development of the European Lobster Homarus gammarus (L.).

PubMed

Small, Daniel P; Calosi, Piero; Boothroyd, Dominic; Widdicombe, Steve; Spicer, John I

2015-01-01

An organism's physiological processes form the link between its life-history traits and the prevailing environmental conditions, especially in species with complex life cycles. Understanding how these processes respond to changing environmental conditions, thereby affecting organismal development, is critical if we are to predict the biological implications of current and future global climate change. However, much of our knowledge is derived from adults or single developmental stages. Consequently, we investigated the metabolic rate, organic content, carapace mineralization, growth, and survival across each larval stage of the European lobster Homarus gammarus, reared under current and predicted future ocean warming and acidification scenarios. Larvae exhibited stage-specific changes in the temperature sensitivity of their metabolic rate. Elevated Pco2 increased C∶N ratios and interacted with elevated temperature to affect carapace mineralization. These changes were linked to concomitant changes in survivorship and growth, from which it was concluded that bottlenecks were evident during H. gammarus larval development in stages I and IV, the transition phases between the embryonic and pelagic larval stages and between the larval and megalopa stages, respectively. We therefore suggest that natural changes in optimum temperature during ontogeny will be key to larvae survival in a future warmer ocean. The interactions of these natural changes with elevated temperature and Pco2 significantly alter physiological condition and body size of the last larval stage before the transition from a planktonic to a benthic life style. Thus, living and growing in warm, hypercapnic waters could compromise larval lobster growth, development, and recruitment.

Maternal speech to preterm infants during the first 2 years of life: stability and change.

PubMed

Suttora, Chiara; Salerni, Nicoletta

2011-01-01

Studies on typical language development documented that mothers fine-tune their verbal input to children's advancing skills and development. Although premature birth has often been associated with delays in communicative and language development, studies investigating maternal language addressed to these children are still rare. The principal aim of this longitudinal study was to investigate the maternal speech directed at very preterm children by examining its changes across time and the stability of maternal individual styles. A sample of 16 mother-preterm infant dyads participated in semi-structured play sessions when children were 6, 12, 18 and 24 months of corrected age. Maternal speech directed at the children was analysed in terms of lexical and syntactical complexity as well as verbal productivity. Also children's motor, cognitive and communicative skills were assessed. Results highlight an overall increase in the lexical and syntactical complexity and in the amount of maternal speech across the first years of life. At the same time, individual maternal communicative styles seem stable as infants grow older, even if between 12 and 18 months all the indices' predictive values decrease, indicating a noteworthy modification in individual maternal styles. Furthermore, between 12 and 18 months predictive relationships between children's motor and vocal skills and maternal changes in input were found. Verbal input addressed to children born preterm during the first 2 years of life does not seem to differ considerably from the language usually used with full-term infants. Nevertheless, maternal verbal adjustments seem to be predicted by earlier infant achievements in vocal and motor development. This suggests that infants' motor skill maturation may function as a major signal for mothers of preterm babies to adjust aspects of their linguistic interactive style. © 2011 Royal College of Speech & Language Therapists.

Disorganized attachment in infancy predicts greater amygdala volume in adulthood.

PubMed

Lyons-Ruth, K; Pechtel, P; Yoon, S A; Anderson, C M; Teicher, M H

2016-07-15

Early life stress in rodents is associated with increased amygdala volume in adulthood. In humans, the amygdala develops rapidly during the first two years of life. Thus, disturbed care during this period may be particularly important to amygdala development. In the context of a 30-year longitudinal study of impoverished, highly stressed families, we assessed whether disorganization of the attachment relationship in infancy was related to amygdala volume in adulthood. Amygdala volumes were assessed among 18 low-income young adults (8M/10F, 29.33±0.49years) first observed in infancy (8.5±5.6months) and followed longitudinally to age 29. In infancy (18.58±1.02mos), both disorganized infant attachment behavior and disrupted maternal communication were assessed in the standard Strange Situation Procedure (SSP). Increased left amygdala volume in adulthood was associated with both maternal and infant components of disorganized attachment interactions at 18 months of age (overall r=0.679, p<0.004). Later stressors, including childhood maltreatment and attachment disturbance in adolescence, were not significantly related to left amygdala volume. Left amygdala volume was further associated with dissociation and limbic irritability in adulthood. Finally, left amygdala volume mediated the prediction from attachment disturbance in infancy to limbic irritability in adulthood. Results point to the likely importance of quality of early care for amygdala development in human children as well as in rodents. The long-term prediction found here suggests that the first two years of life may be an early sensitive period for amygdala development during which clinical intervention could have particularly important consequences for later child outcomes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Physics-Based Modeling Framework for Prognostic Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kulkarni, Chetan S.

2014-01-01

Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) methodologies have emerged as one of the key enablers for achieving efficient system level maintenance as part of a busy operations schedule, and lowering overall life cycle costs. PHM is also emerging as a high-priority issue in critical applications, where the focus is on conducting fundamental research in the field of integrated systems health management. The term diagnostics relates to the ability to detect and isolate faults or failures in a system. Prognostics on the other hand is the process of predicting health condition and remaining useful life based on current state, previous conditions and future operating conditions. PHM methods combine sensing, data collection, interpretation of environmental, operational, and performance related parameters to indicate systems health under its actual application conditions. The development of prognostics methodologies for the electronics field has become more important as more electrical systems are being used to replace traditional systems in several applications in the aeronautics, maritime, and automotive fields. The development of prognostics methods for electronics presents several challenges due to the great variety of components used in a system, a continuous development of new electronics technologies, and a general lack of understanding of how electronics fail. Similarly with electric unmanned aerial vehicles, electrichybrid cars, and commercial passenger aircraft, we are witnessing a drastic increase in the usage of batteries to power vehicles. However, for battery-powered vehicles to operate at maximum efficiency and reliability, it becomes crucial to both monitor battery health and performance and to predict end of discharge (EOD) and end of useful life (EOL) events. We develop an electrochemistry-based model of Li-ion batteries that capture the significant electrochemical processes, are computationally efficient, capture the effects of aging, and are of suitable accuracy for reliable EOD prediction in a variety of usage profiles.

On the origin of life in the zinc world. 2. Validation of the hypothesis on the photosynthesizing zinc sulfide edifices as cradles of life on Earth.

PubMed

Mulkidjanian, Armen Y; Galperin, Michael Y

2009-08-24

The accompanying article (A.Y. Mulkidjanian, Biology Direct 4:26) puts forward a detailed hypothesis on the role of zinc sulfide (ZnS) in the origin of life on Earth. The hypothesis suggests that life emerged within compartmentalized, photosynthesizing ZnS formations of hydrothermal origin (the Zn world), assembled in sub-aerial settings on the surface of the primeval Earth. If life started within photosynthesizing ZnS compartments, it should have been able to evolve under the conditions of elevated levels of Zn2+ ions, byproducts of the ZnS-mediated photosynthesis. Therefore, the Zn world hypothesis leads to a set of testable predictions regarding the specific roles of Zn2+ ions in modern organisms, particularly in RNA and protein structures related to the procession of RNA and the "evolutionarily old" cellular functions. We checked these predictions using publicly available data and obtained evidence suggesting that the development of the primeval life forms up to the stage of the Last Universal Common Ancestor proceeded in zinc-rich settings. Testing of the hypothesis has revealed the possible supportive role of manganese sulfide in the primeval photosynthesis. In addition, we demonstrate the explanatory power of the Zn world concept by elucidating several points that so far remained without acceptable rationalization. In particular, this concept implies a new scenario for the separation of Bacteria and Archaea and the origin of Eukarya. The ability of the Zn world hypothesis to generate non-trivial veritable predictions and explain previously obscure items gives credence to its key postulate that the development of the first life forms started within zinc-rich formations of hydrothermal origin and was driven by solar UV irradiation. This concept implies that the geochemical conditions conducive to the origin of life may have persisted only as long as the atmospheric CO2 pressure remained above ca. 10 bar. This work envisions the first Earth biotopes as photosynthesizing and habitable areas of porous ZnS and MnS precipitates around primeval hot springs. Further work will be needed to provide details on the life within these communities and to elucidate the primordial (bio)chemical reactions. This article was reviewed by Arcady Mushegian, Eugene Koonin, and Patrick Forterre. For the full reviews, please go to the Reviewers' reports section.

On the origin of life in the Zinc world. 2. Validation of the hypothesis on the photosynthesizing zinc sulfide edifices as cradles of life on Earth

PubMed Central

Mulkidjanian, Armen Y; Galperin, Michael Y

2009-01-01

Background The accompanying article (A.Y. Mulkidjanian, Biology Direct 4:26) puts forward a detailed hypothesis on the role of zinc sulfide (ZnS) in the origin of life on Earth. The hypothesis suggests that life emerged within compartmentalized, photosynthesizing ZnS formations of hydrothermal origin (the Zn world), assembled in sub-aerial settings on the surface of the primeval Earth. Results If life started within photosynthesizing ZnS compartments, it should have been able to evolve under the conditions of elevated levels of Zn2+ ions, byproducts of the ZnS-mediated photosynthesis. Therefore, the Zn world hypothesis leads to a set of testable predictions regarding the specific roles of Zn2+ ions in modern organisms, particularly in RNA and protein structures related to the procession of RNA and the "evolutionarily old" cellular functions. We checked these predictions using publicly available data and obtained evidence suggesting that the development of the primeval life forms up to the stage of the Last Universal Common Ancestor proceeded in zinc-rich settings. Testing of the hypothesis has revealed the possible supportive role of manganese sulfide in the primeval photosynthesis. In addition, we demonstrate the explanatory power of the Zn world concept by elucidating several points that so far remained without acceptable rationalization. In particular, this concept implies a new scenario for the separation of Bacteria and Archaea and the origin of Eukarya. Conclusion The ability of the Zn world hypothesis to generate non-trivial veritable predictions and explain previously obscure items gives credence to its key postulate that the development of the first life forms started within zinc-rich formations of hydrothermal origin and was driven by solar UV irradiation. This concept implies that the geochemical conditions conducive to the origin of life may have persisted only as long as the atmospheric CO2 pressure remained above ca. 10 bar. This work envisions the first Earth biotopes as photosynthesizing and habitable areas of porous ZnS and MnS precipitates around primeval hot springs. Further work will be needed to provide details on the life within these communities and to elucidate the primordial (bio)chemical reactions. Reviewers This article was reviewed by Arcady Mushegian, Eugene Koonin, and Patrick Forterre. For the full reviews, please go to the Reviewers' reports section. PMID:19703275

For Whom the Mind Wanders, and When, Varies Across Laboratory and Daily-Life Settings.

PubMed

Kane, Michael J; Gross, Georgina M; Chun, Charlotte A; Smeekens, Bridget A; Meier, Matt E; Silvia, Paul J; Kwapil, Thomas R

2017-09-01

Undergraduates ( N = 274) participated in a weeklong daily-life experience-sampling study of mind wandering after being assessed in the lab for executive-control abilities (working memory capacity; attention-restraint ability; attention-constraint ability; and propensity for task-unrelated thoughts, or TUTs) and personality traits. Eight times a day, electronic devices prompted subjects to report on their current thoughts and context. Working memory capacity and attention abilities predicted subjects' TUT rates in the lab, but predicted the frequency of daily-life mind wandering only as a function of subjects' momentary attempts to concentrate. This pattern replicates prior daily-life findings but conflicts with laboratory findings. Results for personality factors also revealed different associations in the lab and daily life: Only neuroticism predicted TUT rate in the lab, but only openness predicted mind-wandering rate in daily life (both predicted the content of daily-life mind wandering). Cognitive and personality factors also predicted dimensions of everyday thought other than mind wandering, such as subjective judgments of controllability of thought. Mind wandering in people's daily environments and TUTs during controlled and artificial laboratory tasks have different correlates (and perhaps causes). Thus, mind-wandering theories based solely on lab phenomena may be incomplete.

Analysis and prediction of Multiple-Site Damage (MSD) fatigue crack growth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dawicke, D. S.; Newman, J. C., Jr.

1992-01-01

A technique was developed to calculate the stress intensity factor for multiple interacting cracks. The analysis was verified through comparison with accepted methods of calculating stress intensity factors. The technique was incorporated into a fatigue crack growth prediction model and used to predict the fatigue crack growth life for multiple-site damage (MSD). The analysis was verified through comparison with experiments conducted on uniaxially loaded flat panels with multiple cracks. Configuration with nearly equal and unequal crack distribution were examined. The fatigue crack growth predictions agreed within 20 percent of the experimental lives for all crack configurations considered.

Apparent Half-Lives of Dioxins, Furans, and Polychlorinated Biphenyls as a Function of Age, Body Fat, Smoking Status, and Breast-Feeding

PubMed Central

Milbrath, Meghan O’Grady; Wenger, Yvan; Chang, Chiung-Wen; Emond, Claude; Garabrant, David; Gillespie, Brenda W.; Jolliet, Olivier

2009-01-01

Objective In this study we reviewed the half-life data in the literature for the 29 dioxin, furan, and polychlorinated biphenyl congeners named in the World Health Organization toxic equivalency factor scheme, with the aim of providing a reference value for the half-life of each congener in the human body and a method of half-life estimation that accounts for an individual’s personal characteristics. Data sources and extraction We compared data from > 30 studies containing congener-specific elimination rates. Half-life data were extracted and compiled into a summary table. We then created a subset of these data based on defined exclusionary criteria. Data synthesis We defined values for each congener that approximate the half-life in an infant and in an adult. A linear interpolation of these values was used to examine the relationship between half-life and age, percent body fat, and absolute body fat. We developed predictive equations based on these relationships and adjustments for individual characteristics. Conclusions The half-life of dioxins in the body can be predicted using a linear relationship with age adjusted for body fat, smoking, and breast-feeding. Data suggest an alternative method based on a linear relationship between half-life and total body fat, but this approach requires further testing and validation with individual measurements. PMID:19337517

Overview of Aerothermodynamic Loads Definition Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Povinelli, L. A.

1985-01-01

The Aerothermodynamic Loads Definition were studied to develop methods to more accurately predict the operating environment in the space shuttle main engine (SSME) components. Development of steady and time-dependent, three-dimensional viscous computer codes and experimental verification and engine diagnostic testing are considered. The steady, nonsteady, and transient operating loads are defined to accurately predict powerhead life. Improvements in the structural durability of the SSME turbine drive systems depends on the knowledge of the aerothermodynamic behavior of the flow through the preburner, turbine, turnaround duct, gas manifold, and injector post regions.

Predictive Modeling of the CDRA 4BMS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coker, Robert F.; Knox, James C.

2016-01-01

As part of NASA's Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) program and the Life Support Systems Project (LSSP), fully predictive models of the Four Bed Molecular Sieve (4BMS) of the Carbon Dioxide Removal Assembly (CDRA) on the International Space Station (ISS) are being developed. This virtual laboratory will be used to help reduce mass, power, and volume requirements for future missions. In this paper we describe current and planned modeling developments in the area of carbon dioxide removal to support future crewed Mars missions as well as the resolution of anomalies observed in the ISS CDRA.

Commentary: The Development of Creativity--Ability, Motivation, and Potential

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Silvia, Paul J.; Christensen, Alexander P.; Cotter, Katherine N.

2016-01-01

A major question for research on the development of creativity is whether it is interested in "creative potential" (a prospective approach that uses measures early in life to predict adult creativity) or in children's creativity for its own sake. We suggest that a focus on potential for future creativity diminishes the fascinating…

Crop development related to temperature and photoperiod in temperate cereals

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Plant development, or the progression of plants through their life cycle, has been of great interest in human history because of the need to know and predict when the harvested part of the plant was at the optimum stage. This knowledge was especially important (even vital) in medicinal plants, where...

Scaling and saturation laws for the expansion of concrete exposed to sulfate attack.

PubMed

Monteiro, Paulo J M

2006-08-01

Reinforced concrete structures exposed to aggressive environments often require repair or retrofit even though they were designed to last >50 years. This statement is especially true for structures subjected to sulfate attack. It is critical that fundamental models of life prediction be developed for durability of concrete. Based on experimental results obtained over a 40-year period, scaling and saturation laws were formulated for concrete exposed to sulfate solution. These features have not been considered in current models used to predict life cycle of concrete exposed to aggressive environment. The mathematical analysis shows that porous concrete made with high and moderate water-to-cement ratios develops a definite scaling law after an initiation time. The scaling coefficient depends on the cement composition but does not depend on the original water-to-cement ratio. Dense concrete made with low water-to-cement ratios develops a cyclic saturation curve. An index for "potential of damage" is created to allow engineers to design concrete structures with better precision and cement chemists to develop portland cements with optimized composition.

Development and Validation of Criterion-Referenced Clinically Relevant Fitness Standards for Maintaining Physical Independence in Later Years

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rikli, Roberta E.; Jones, C. Jessie

2013-01-01

Purpose: To develop and validate criterion-referenced fitness standards for older adults that predict the level of capacity needed for maintaining physical independence into later life. The proposed standards were developed for use with a previously validated test battery for older adults--the Senior Fitness Test (Rikli, R. E., & Jones, C. J.…

Elevated blood eosinophils in early infancy are predictive of atopic dermatitis in children with risk for atopy.

PubMed

Rossberg, Siri; Gerhold, Kerstin; Geske, Thomas; Zimmermann, Kurt; Menke, Georg; Zaino, Mohammad; Wahn, Ulrich; Hamelmann, Eckard; Lau, Susanne

2016-11-01

Accessible markers to predict the development of atopic diseases are highly desirable but yet matter of debate. We investigated the role of blood eosinophils at 4 weeks and 7 months of life and their association with developing atopic dermatitis (AD) in a birth cohort of children with atopic heredity. Infant blood samples for eosinophil counts were taken from 559 infants at 4 weeks and from 467 infants at 7 month of life with at least one atopic parent. Elevation of blood eosinophils was defined as ≥ 5% of total leukocytes and the asscociation for the occurrence of AD was assessed by entering 2 × 2 tables and the odds ratios were estimated followed by hypothesis testing against the alternate working hypothesis: odds ratio < > 1. Survival analysis was carried out estimating the Kaplan-Meier product limit estimator from the life-time table of AD score and time to AD manifestation stratified by the eosinophil binary score. Elevated blood eosinophils observed at 4 weeks were significantly associated with the occurrence of AD in the whole cohort at the age of 7 months (p = 0.007), 1 year (p = 0.004), 2 years (p = 0.007) and 3 years (p = 0.006) of life. AD occurred app. 12 weeks earlier in infants with elevated blood eosinophils at 4 weeks of life. Blood eosinophil counts ≥5% at 7 months of life failed to show significance for AD; for eosinophils at 4.5% a significant association at 7 months (p = 0.005), and 1 year of life (p = 0.039), 2 years (p = 0.033) and 3 years (p = 0.034) was observed. Elevated blood eosinophils at age 4 weeks have a predictive value for the onset of atopic dermatitis in infancy and early childhood in children with high risk for atopy. Early eosinophil counts may therefore be helpful for counseling parents to provide infant skincare but furthermore identify individuals for interventional trials aiming at allergy prevention. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Morphological plasticity reduces the effect of poor developmental conditions on fledging age in mourning doves

PubMed Central

Miller, David A.

2010-01-01

Developmental plasticity can be integral in adapting organisms to the environment experienced during growth. Adaptive plastic responses may be especially important in prioritizing development in response to stress during ontogeny. To evaluate this, I examined how developmental conditions for mourning doves related to early growth and how this affected fledging age, an important life-history transition for birds. The life history of mourning doves is consistent with strong selective pressure to minimize fledging age. Therefore, I predicted that in the face of nutritional stress associated with experimental brood-size increases, young would prioritize growth to structures that promote early fledging to reduce the effect of slowed overall growth on fledging age. Increasing brood size slowed overall structural growth of nestlings and affected the relative allocation of growth among different body parts. Total wing area was the best predictor of fledging age and individuals from larger broods had larger wings relative to overall body size. Although nestlings from larger broods fledged at later ages owing to slower overall growth, prioritization of wing growth reduced this effect by an estimated 1.6 days relative to the delay if plasticity among body parts had not occurred. This was an 11 per cent reduction in the predicted developmental time it took to reach this important life-history transition. Results demonstrate that preferential allocation to wing growth can affect the timing of this life-history transition and that morphological plasticity during development can have adaptive near-term effects during avian development. PMID:20129984

Imagining life with an ostomy: Does a video intervention improve quality-of-life predictions for a medical condition that may elicit disgust?☆

PubMed Central

Angott, Andrea M.; Comerford, David A.; Ubel, Peter A.

2014-01-01

Objective To test a video intervention as a way to improve predictions of mood and quality-of-life with an emotionally evocative medical condition. Such predictions are typically inaccurate, which can be consequential for decision making. Method In Part 1, people presently or formerly living with ostomies predicted how watching a video depicting a person changing his ostomy pouch would affect mood and quality-of-life forecasts for life with an ostomy. In Part 2, participants from the general public read a description about life with an ostomy; half also watched a video depicting a person changing his ostomy pouch. Participants’ quality-of-life and mood forecasts for life with an ostomy were assessed. Results Contrary to our expectations, and the expectations of people presently or formerly living with ostomies, the video did not reduce mood or quality-of-life estimates, even among participants high in trait disgust sensitivity. Among low-disgust participants, watching the video increased quality-of-life predictions for ostomy. Conclusion Video interventions may improve mood and quality-of-life forecasts for medical conditions, including those that may elicit disgust, such as ostomy. Practice implications Video interventions focusing on patients’ experience of illness continue to show promise as components of decision aids, even for emotionally charged health states such as ostomy. PMID:23177398

Intergenerational determinants of offspring size at birth: a life course and graphical analysis using the Aberdeen Children of the 1950s Study (ACONF).

PubMed

Morton, Susan M B; De Stavola, Bianca L; Leon, David A

2014-06-01

Size at birth has taken on renewed significance due to its now well-established association with many health and health-related outcomes in both the immediate perinatal period and across the entire life course. Optimizing fetal growth to improve both neonatal survival and population health is the focus of much research and policy development, although most efforts have concentrated on either the period of pregnancy itself or the period immediately preceding it. Intergenerational data linked to the Aberdeen Children of the 1950s (ACONF) study were used to examine the influence of grandparental and parental life course biological and social variables on the distribution of offspring size at birth. Guided stepwise multivariable methods and a graphical approach were used to assess the relative importance of these temporally ordered and highly correlated life course measures. Both distal and proximal grandparental and parental life course biological and social factors predicted offspring size at birth. Inequalities in size at birth, according to adult maternal socioeconomic indicators, were found to be largely generated by the continuity of the social environment across generations, and the inequalities in maternal early life growth were predicted by the adult grandparental social environment during the mother's early life. Mother's own size at birth predicted her offspring's intrauterine growth, independent of her adult biological and social characteristics. A mother's childhood social environment and her early growth are both important predictors of her offspring's size at birth. Population strategies aimed at optimizing size at birth require broader social and intergenerational considerations, in addition to focusing on the health of mothers in the immediate pregnancy period. © The Author 2014; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

Numerical simulations of mechanical properties of innovative pothole patching materials featuring high toughness, low viscosity nano-molecular resins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, K. Y.; Yuan, W.; Ju, J. W.; Yang, J. M.; Kao, W.; Carlson, L.

2012-04-01

As asphalt pavements age and deteriorate, recurring pothole repair failures and propagating alligator cracks in the asphalt pavements have become a serious issue to our daily life and resulted in high repairing costs for pavement and vehicles. To solve this urgent issue, pothole repair materials with superior durability and long service life are needed. In the present work, revolutionary pothole patching materials with high toughness, high fatigue resistance that are reinforced with nano-molecular resins have been developed to enhance their resistance to traffic loads and service life of repaired potholes. In particular, DCPD resin (dicyclopentadiene, C10H12) with a Rhuthinium-based catalyst is employed to develop controlled properties that are compatible with aggregates and asphalt binders. In this paper, a multi-level numerical micromechanics-based model is developed to predict the mechanical properties of these innovative nanomolecular resin reinforced pothole patching materials. Coarse aggregates in the finite element analysis are modeled as irregular shapes through image processing techniques and randomly-dispersed coated particles. The overall properties of asphalt mastic, which consists of fine aggregates, asphalt binder, cured DCPD and air voids are theoretically estimated by the homogenization technique of micromechanics. Numerical predictions are compared with suitably designed experimental laboratory results.

DENSITY-DEPENDENT EVOLUTION OF LIFE-HISTORY TRAITS IN DROSOPHILA MELANOGASTER.

PubMed

Bierbaum, Todd J; Mueller, Laurence D; Ayala, Francisco J

1989-03-01

Populations of Drosophila melanogaster were maintained for 36 generations in r- and K-selected environments in order to test the life-history predictions of theories on density-dependent selection. In the r-selection environment, populations were reduced to low densities by density-independent adult mortality, whereas populations in the K-selection environment were maintained at their carrying capacity. Some of the experimental results support the predictions or r- and K-selection theory; relative to the r-selected populations, the K-selected populations evolved an increased larval-to-adult viability, larger body size, and longer development time at high larval densities. Mueller and Ayala (1981) found that K-selected populations also have a higher rate of population growth at high densities. Other predictions of the thoery are contradicted by the lack of differences between the r and K populations in adult longevity and fecundity and a slower rate of development for r-selected individuals at low densities. The differences between selected populations in larval survivorship, larval-to-adult development time, and adult body size are strongly dependent on larval density, and there is a significant interaction between populations and larval density for each trait. This manifests an inadequacy of the theory on r- and K-selection, which does not take into account such interactions between genotypes and environments. We describe mechanisms that may explain the evolution of preadult life-history traits in our experiment and discuss the need for changes in theories of density-dependent selection. © 1989 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Biological stress systems, adverse life events and the onset of chronic multisite musculoskeletal pain: a 6-year cohort study.

PubMed

Generaal, Ellen; Vogelzangs, Nicole; Macfarlane, Gary J; Geenen, Rinie; Smit, Johannes H; de Geus, Eco J C N; Penninx, Brenda W J H; Dekker, Joost

2016-05-01

Dysregulated biological stress systems and adverse life events, independently and in interaction, have been hypothesised to initiate chronic pain. We examine whether (1) function of biological stress systems, (2) adverse life events, and (3) their combination predict the onset of chronic multisite musculoskeletal pain. Subjects (n=2039) of the Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety, free from chronic multisite musculoskeletal pain at baseline, were identified using the Chronic Pain Grade Questionnaire and followed up for the onset of chronic multisite musculoskeletal pain over 6 years. Baseline assessment of biological stress systems comprised function of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis (1-h cortisol awakening response, evening levels, postdexamethasone levels), the immune system (basal and lipopolysaccharide-stimulated inflammation) and the autonomic nervous system (heart rate, pre-ejection period, SD of the normal-to-normal interval, respiratory sinus arrhythmia). The number of recent adverse life events was assessed at baseline using the List of Threatening Events Questionnaire. Hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis, immune system and autonomic nervous system functioning was not associated with onset of chronic multisite musculoskeletal pain, either by itself or in interaction with adverse life events. Adverse life events did predict onset of chronic multisite musculoskeletal pain (HR per event=1.14, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.24, p=0.005). This longitudinal study could not confirm that dysregulated biological stress systems increase the risk of developing chronic multisite musculoskeletal pain. Adverse life events were a risk factor for the onset of chronic multisite musculoskeletal pain, suggesting that psychosocial factors play a role in triggering the development of this condition. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Maternal investment, life-history strategy of the offspring and adult chronic disease risk in South Asian women in the UK.

PubMed

Wells, Jonathan C K; Yao, Pallas; Williams, Jane E; Gayner, Rebecca

2016-01-01

Patterns of development predict cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, and ethnic differences therein, but it remains unclear why apparently 'adaptive plasticity' in early life should generate health costs in later life. We hypothesized that offspring receiving low maternal investment during fetal life, the primary period of organogenesis, should predict a shorter reproductive career and develop a fast life-history strategy, prioritizing reproduction over growth and homeostatic maintenance. We studied 58 young adult South Asian women living in the UK, a group with high susceptibility to CVD. We obtained gestational age, birth weight (BW) and menarcheal age by recall and measured anthropometry, body composition, resting metabolic rate (RMR) and blood pressure (BP). BW and gestational age were inversely associated with menarcheal age, indicating that lower maternal investment is associated with faster maturation. Menarcheal age was positively associated with height but inversely with adiposity, indicating that rapid maturation prioritizes lipid stores over somatic growth. BW was inversely associated with BP, whereas adiposity was positively associated, indicating that lower maternal investment reduces BP homeostasis. BW was positively associated with RMR, whereas menarche was inversely associated, indicating that maternal investment influences adult metabolism. Supporting our hypothesis, low maternal investment promoted faster life histories, demonstrated by earlier menarche, reduced growth and elevated adiposity. These traits were associated with poorer BP regulation. This is the first study demonstrating strategic adjustment of the balance between reproduction and metabolic health in response to the level of maternal investment during fetal life. © The Author(s) 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Foundation for Evolution, Medicine, and Public Health.

Analysis backpropagation methods with neural network for prediction of children's ability in psychomotoric

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Izhari, F.; Dhany, H. W.; Zarlis, M.; Sutarman

2018-03-01

A good age in optimizing aspects of development is at the age of 4-6 years, namely with psychomotor development. Psychomotor is broader, more difficult to monitor but has a meaningful value for the child's life because it directly affects his behavior and deeds. Therefore, there is a problem to predict the child's ability level based on psychomotor. This analysis uses backpropagation method analysis with artificial neural network to predict the ability of the child on the psychomotor aspect by generating predictions of the child's ability on psychomotor and testing there is a mean squared error (MSE) value at the end of the training of 0.001. There are 30% of children aged 4-6 years have a good level of psychomotor ability, excellent, less good, and good enough.

Prognostics and Health Monitoring: Application to Electric Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kulkarni, Chetan S.

2017-01-01

As more and more autonomous electric vehicles emerge in our daily operation progressively, a very critical challenge lies in accurate prediction of remaining useful life of the systemssubsystems, specifically the electrical powertrain. In case of electric aircrafts, computing remaining flying time is safety-critical, since an aircraft that runs out of power (battery charge) while in the air will eventually lose control leading to catastrophe. In order to tackle and solve the prediction problem, it is essential to have awareness of the current state and health of the system, especially since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To be able to predict the future state of the system, it is also required to possess knowledge of the current and future operations of the vehicle.Our research approach is to develop a system level health monitoring safety indicator either to the pilotautopilot for the electric vehicles which runs estimation and prediction algorithms to estimate remaining useful life of the vehicle e.g. determine state-of-charge in batteries. Given models of the current and future system behavior, a general approach of model-based prognostics can be employed as a solution to the prediction problem and further for decision making.

Method of Fatigue-Life Prediction for an Asphalt Mixture Based on the Plateau Value of Permanent Deformation Ratio.

PubMed

Sun, Yazhen; Fang, Chenze; Wang, Jinchang; Yuan, Xuezhong; Fan, Dong

2018-05-03

Laboratory predictions for the fatigue life of an asphalt mixture under cyclic loading based on the plateau value (PV) of the permanent deformation ratio (PDR) were carried out by three-point bending fatigue tests. The influence of test conditions on the recovery ratio of elastic deformation (RRED), the permanent deformation (PD) and PDR, and the trends of RRED, PD, and PDR were studied. The damage variable was defined by using PDR, and the relation of the fatigue life to PDR was determined by analyzing the damage evolution process. The fatigue equation was established based on the PV of PDR and the fatigue life was predicted by analyzing the relation of the fatigue life to the PV. The results show that the RRED decreases with the increase of the number of loading cycles, and the elastic recovery ability of the asphalt mixture gradually decreases. The two mathematical models proposed are based on the change laws of the RRED, and the PD can well describe the change laws. The RRED or the PD cannot well predict the fatigue life because they do not change monotonously with the fatigue life, and one part of the deformation causes the damage and the other part causes the viscoelastic deformation. The fatigue life decreases with the increase of the PDR. The average PDR in the second stage is taken as the PV, and the fatigue life decreases in a power law with the increase of the PV. The average relative error of the fatigue life predicted by the fatigue equation to the test fatigue life is 5.77%. The fatigue equation based on PV can well predict the fatigue life.

Gender Differences in Contextual Predictors of Urban, Early Adolescents' Subjective Well-Being

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vera, Elizabeth M.; Moallem, B. Isabel; Vacek, Kimberly R.; Blackmon, Sha'kema; Coyle, Laura D.; Gomez, Kenia L.; Lamp, Kristen; Langrehr, Kimberly J.; Luginbuhl, Paula; Mull, Megan K.; Telander, Kyle J.; Steele, J. Corey

2012-01-01

Gender differences in predicting subjective well-being (SWB) were examined in 168 urban adolescents. School satisfaction predicted life satisfaction for boys; for girls, family satisfaction predicted life satisfaction and neighborhood satisfaction predicted negative affect. Self-esteem predicted positive affect for both genders, but friends…

Life prediction of thermal-mechanical fatigue using strainrange partitioning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halford, G. R.; Manson, S. S.

1975-01-01

This paper describes the applicability of the method of Strainrange Partitioning to the life prediction of thermal-mechanical strain-cycling fatigue. An in-phase test on 316 stainless steel is analyzed as an illustrative example. The observed life is in excellent agreement with the life predicted by the method using the recently proposed Step-Stress Method of experimental partitioning, the Interaction Damage Rule, and the life relationships determined at an isothermal temperature of 705 C. Implications of the present study are discussed relative to the general thermal fatigue problem.

Life prediction of thermal-mechanical fatigue using strain-range partitioning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halford, G. R.; Manson, S. S.

1975-01-01

The applicability is described of the method of Strainrange Partitioning to the life prediction of thermal-mechanical strain-cycling fatigue. An in-phase test on 316 stainless steel is analyzed as an illustrative example. The observed life is in excellent agreement with the life predicted by the method using the recently proposed Step-Stress Method of experimental partitioning, the Interation Damage Rule, and the life relationships determined at an isothermal temperature of 705 C. Implications of the study are discussed relative to the general thermal fatigue problem.

Risk Factors Analysis and Death Prediction in Some Life-Threatening Ailments Using Chi-Square Case-Based Reasoning (χ2 CBR) Model.

PubMed

Adeniyi, D A; Wei, Z; Yang, Y

2018-01-30

A wealth of data are available within the health care system, however, effective analysis tools for exploring the hidden patterns in these datasets are lacking. To alleviate this limitation, this paper proposes a simple but promising hybrid predictive model by suitably combining the Chi-square distance measurement with case-based reasoning technique. The study presents the realization of an automated risk calculator and death prediction in some life-threatening ailments using Chi-square case-based reasoning (χ 2 CBR) model. The proposed predictive engine is capable of reducing runtime and speeds up execution process through the use of critical χ 2 distribution value. This work also showcases the development of a novel feature selection method referred to as frequent item based rule (FIBR) method. This FIBR method is used for selecting the best feature for the proposed χ 2 CBR model at the preprocessing stage of the predictive procedures. The implementation of the proposed risk calculator is achieved through the use of an in-house developed PHP program experimented with XAMP/Apache HTTP server as hosting server. The process of data acquisition and case-based development is implemented using the MySQL application. Performance comparison between our system, the NBY, the ED-KNN, the ANN, the SVM, the Random Forest and the traditional CBR techniques shows that the quality of predictions produced by our system outperformed the baseline methods studied. The result of our experiment shows that the precision rate and predictive quality of our system in most cases are equal to or greater than 70%. Our result also shows that the proposed system executes faster than the baseline methods studied. Therefore, the proposed risk calculator is capable of providing useful, consistent, faster, accurate and efficient risk level prediction to both the patients and the physicians at any time, online and on a real-time basis.

Development of finite element models to predict dynamic bridge response.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-10-01

Dynamic response has long been recognized as one of the significant factors affecting the service life and safety of bridge structures. Even though considerable research, both analytical and experimental, has been devoted to dynamic bridge behavior, ...

Progress in materials and structures at Lewis Research Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Glasgow, T. K.; Lauver, R. W.; Halford, G. R.; Davies, R. L.

1980-01-01

The development of power and propulsion system technology is discussed. Specific emphasis is placed on the following: high temperature materials; composite materials; advanced design and life prediction; and nondestructive evaluation. Future areas of research are also discussed.

Validating the BISON fuel performance code to integral LWR experiments

DOE PAGES

Williamson, R. L.; Gamble, K. A.; Perez, D. M.; ...

2016-03-24

BISON is a modern finite element-based nuclear fuel performance code that has been under development at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) since 2009. The code is applicable to both steady and transient fuel behavior and has been used to analyze a variety of fuel forms in 1D spherical, 2D axisymmetric, or 3D geometries. Code validation is underway and is the subject of this study. A brief overview of BISON’s computational framework, governing equations, and general material and behavioral models is provided. BISON code and solution verification procedures are described, followed by a summary of the experimental data used to datemore » for validation of Light Water Reactor (LWR) fuel. Validation comparisons focus on fuel centerline temperature, fission gas release, and rod diameter both before and following fuel-clad mechanical contact. Comparisons for 35 LWR rods are consolidated to provide an overall view of how the code is predicting physical behavior, with a few select validation cases discussed in greater detail. Our results demonstrate that 1) fuel centerline temperature comparisons through all phases of fuel life are very reasonable with deviations between predictions and experimental data within ±10% for early life through high burnup fuel and only slightly out of these bounds for power ramp experiments, 2) accuracy in predicting fission gas release appears to be consistent with state-of-the-art modeling and with the involved uncertainties and 3) comparison of rod diameter results indicates a tendency to overpredict clad diameter reduction early in life, when clad creepdown dominates, and more significantly overpredict the diameter increase late in life, when fuel expansion controls the mechanical response. In the initial rod diameter comparisons they were unsatisfactory and have lead to consideration of additional separate effects experiments to better understand and predict clad and fuel mechanical behavior. Results from this study are being used to define priorities for ongoing code development and validation activities.« less

Real-time sensing of fatigue crack damage for information-based decision and control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, Eric Evans

Information-based decision and control for structures that are subject to failure by fatigue cracking is based on the following notion: Maintenance, usage scheduling, and control parameter tuning can be optimized through real time knowledge of the current state of fatigue crack damage. Additionally, if the material properties of a mechanical structure can be identified within a smaller range, then the remaining life prediction of that structure will be substantially more accurate. Information-based decision systems can rely one physical models, estimation of material properties, exact knowledge of usage history, and sensor data to synthesize an accurate snapshot of the current state of damage and the likely remaining life of a structure under given assumed loading. The work outlined in this thesis is structured to enhance the development of information-based decision and control systems. This is achieved by constructing a test facility for laboratory experiments on real-time damage sensing. This test facility makes use of a methodology that has been formulated for fatigue crack model parameter estimation and significantly improves the quality of predictions of remaining life. Specifically, the thesis focuses on development of an on-line fatigue crack damage sensing and life prediction system that is built upon the disciplines of Systems Sciences and Mechanics of Materials. A major part of the research effort has been expended to design and fabricate a test apparatus which allows: (i) measurement and recording of statistical data for fatigue crack growth in metallic materials via different sensing techniques; and (ii) identification of stochastic model parameters for prediction of fatigue crack damage. To this end, this thesis describes the test apparatus and the associated instrumentation based on four different sensing techniques, namely, traveling optical microscopy, ultrasonic flaw detection, Alternating Current Potential Drop (ACPD), and fiber-optic extensometry-based compliance, for crack length measurements.

Fatigue Life Variability in Large Aluminum Forgings with Residual Stress

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-07-01

been conducted. A detailed finite element analysis of the forge/ quench /coldwork/machine process was performed in order to predict the bulk residual...forge/ quench /coldwork/machine process was performed in order to predict the bulk residual stresses in a fictitious aluminum bulkhead. The residual...continues to develop the capability for computational simulation of the forge, quench , cold work and machining processes. In order to handle the

Thermal barrier coating life prediction model development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strangman, T. E.; Neumann, J. F.; Tasooji, A.

1985-01-01

This program focuses on predicting the lives of two types of strain-tolerant and oxidation-resistant thermal barrier coating (TBC) systems that are produced by commercial coating suppliers to the gas turbine industry. The plasma-sprayed TBC system is composed of a low pressure, plasma sprayed applied, oxidation resistant NiCrAlY bond coating. The other system is an air plasma sprayed yttria (8 percent) partially stabilized zirconia insulative layer.

Summary of the Sixth Persh Workshop: Corrosion Policy Guiding Science and Technology

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-01-01

mitigating corrosion. Corrosion affects military readiness, so corrosion prevention and control (CPC) have a high priority for the DOD since CPC is a...resulting in high -cost repairs. Corrosion mitigation is thus a key cost-effective approach for system maintainability and reduced life cycle costs. The... treatments . • Develop corrosion databases and corrosion models for predictive evaluation. Testing methods for realistic prediction of performance

Fathers and Daughters: Using a Multivariate Analysis through Multiple Regression to Help Predict a Daughter's Self-Esteem as Experienced by College-Age Women in Rural Nebraska

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beshaler, Mary E.

2010-01-01

Throughout her life, a woman makes decisions about behaviors, relationships, academic accomplishments, and achievements. What propels women to make these choices may be driven by an image of self. This feeling of self-worth or self-esteem is developed early in life with the help of her primary caregivers as found in her biological mother and…

A 3.5 year diary study: Remembering and life story importance are predicted by different event characteristics.

PubMed

Thomsen, Dorthe Kirkegaard; Jensen, Thomas; Holm, Tine; Olesen, Martin Hammershøj; Schnieber, Anette; Tønnesvang, Jan

2015-11-01

Forty-five participants described and rated two events each week during their first term at university. After 3.5 years, we examined whether event characteristics rated in the diary predicted remembering, reliving, and life story importance at the follow-up. In addition, we examined whether ratings of life story importance were consistent across a three year interval. Approximately 60% of events were remembered, but only 20% of these were considered above medium importance to life stories. Higher unusualness, rehearsal, and planning predicted whether an event was remembered 3.5 years later. Higher goal-relevance, importance, emotional intensity, and planning predicted life story importance 3.5 years later. There was a moderate correlation between life story importance rated three months after the diary and rated at the 3.5 year follow-up. The results suggest that autobiographical memory and life stories are governed by different mechanisms and that life story memories are characterized by some degree of stability. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

ADHD symptoms in healthy adults are associated with stressful life events and negative memory bias.

PubMed

Vrijsen, Janna N; Tendolkar, Indira; Onnink, Marten; Hoogman, Martine; Schene, Aart H; Fernández, Guillén; van Oostrom, Iris; Franke, Barbara

2018-06-01

Stressful life events, especially Childhood Trauma, predict ADHD symptoms. Childhood Trauma and negatively biased memory are risk factors for affective disorders. The association of life events and bias with ADHD symptoms may inform about the etiology of ADHD. Memory bias was tested using a computer task in N = 675 healthy adults. Life events and ADHD symptoms were assessed using questionnaires. The mediation of the association between life events and ADHD symptoms by memory bias was examined. We explored the roles of different types of life events and of ADHD symptom clusters. Life events and memory bias were associated with overall ADHD symptoms as well as inattention and hyperactivity/impulsivity symptom clusters. Memory bias mediated the association of Lifetime Life Events, specifically Childhood Trauma, with ADHD symptoms. Negatively biased memory may be a cognitive marker of the effects of Childhood Trauma on the development and/or persistence of ADHD symptoms.

Predictive and Treatment Validity of Life Satisfaction and the Quality of Life Inventory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Frisch, Michael B.; Clark, Michelle P.; Rouse, Steven V.; Rudd, M. David; Paweleck, Jennifer K.; Greenstone, Andrew; Kopplin, David A.

2005-01-01

The clinical and positive psychology usefulness of quality of life, well-being, and life satisfaction assessments depends on their ability to predict important outcomes and to detect intervention-related change. These issues were explored in the context of a program of instrument validation for the Quality of Life Inventory (QOLI) involving 3,927…

Predictors (0-10 months) of psychopathology at age 11/2 years - a general population study in The Copenhagen Child Cohort CCC 2000.

PubMed

Skovgaard, A M; Olsen, E M; Christiansen, E; Houmann, T; Landorph, S L; Jørgensen, T

2008-05-01

Epidemiological studies of mental health problems in the first years of life are few. This study aims to investigate infancy predictors of psychopathology in the second year of life. A random general population sample of 210 children from the Copenhagen Child Birth Cohort CCC 2000 was investigated by data from National Danish registers and data collected prospectively from birth in a general child health surveillance programme. Mental health outcome at 1(1/2) years was assessed by clinical and standardised measures including the Child Behavior Check List 1(1/2)-5 (CBCL 1(1/2)-5), Infant Toddler Symptom Check List (ITSCL), Checklist for Autism in Toddlers (CHAT), Bayley Scales of Infant Development (BSID II), Mannheim Eltern Interview (MEI), Parent Child Early Relational Assessment (PC ERA) and Parent Infant Relationship Global Assessment Scale (PIR-GAS), and disordered children were diagnosed according to the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) and Diagnostic Classification Zero to Three (DC: 0-3). Deviant language development in the first 10 months of life predicted the child having any disorder at 1(1/2) years, OR 3.3 (1.4-8.0). Neuro-developmental disorders were predicted by deviant neuro-cognitive functioning, OR 6.8 (2.2-21.4), deviant language development, OR 5.9 (1.9-18.7) and impaired social interaction and communication, OR 3.8 (1.3-11.4). Unwanted pregnancy and parents' negative expectations of the child recorded in the first months of the child's life were significant predictors of relationship disturbances at 1(1/2) years. Predictors of neuro-developmental disorders and parent-child relationship disturbances can be identified in the first 10 months of life in children from the general population.

Sources of Life Strengths Appraisal Scale: A Multidimensional Approach to Assessing Older Adults' Perceived Sources of Life Strengths

PubMed Central

Fry, Prem S.; Debats, Dominique L.

2014-01-01

Both cognitive and psychosocial theories of adult development stress the fundamental role of older adults' appraisals of the diverse sources of cognitive and social-emotional strengths. This study reports the development of a new self-appraisal measure that incorporates key theoretical dimensions of internal and external sources of life strengths, as identified in the gerontological literature. Using a pilot study sample and three other independent samples to examine older adults' appraisals of their sources of life strengths which helped them in their daily functioning and to combat life challenges, adversity, and losses, a psychometric instrument having appropriate reliability and validity properties was developed. A 24-month followup of a randomly selected sample confirmed that the nine-scale appraisal measure (SLSAS) is a promising instrument for appraising older adults' sources of life strengths in dealing with stresses of daily life's functioning and also a robust measure for predicting outcomes of resilience, autonomy, and well-being for this age group. A unique strength of the appraisal instrument is its critically relevant features of brevity, simplicity of language, and ease of administration to frail older adults. Dedicated to the memory of Shanta Khurana whose assistance in the pilot work for the study was invaluable PMID:24772352

Predictive and Incremental Validity of Global and Domain-Based Adolescent Life Satisfaction Reports

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haranin, Emily C.; Huebner, E. Scott; Suldo, Shannon M.

2007-01-01

Concurrent, predictive, and incremental validity of global and domain-based adolescent life satisfaction reports are examined with respect to internalizing and externalizing behavior problems. The Students' Life Satisfaction Scale (SLSS), Multidimensional Students' Life Satisfaction Scale (MSLSS), and measures of internalizing and externalizing…

Lifetime risks of kidney donation: a medical decision analysis.

PubMed

Kiberd, Bryce A; Tennankore, Karthik K

2017-09-01

This study estimated the potential loss of life and the lifetime cumulative risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) from live kidney donation. Markov medical decision analysis. USA. 40-year-old live kidney donors of both sexes and black/white race. Live donor nephrectomy. Potential remaining life years lost, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) lost and added lifetime cumulative risk of ESRD from donation. Overall 0.532-0.884 remaining life years were lost from donating a kidney. This was equivalent to 1.20%-2.34% of remaining life years (or 0.76%-1.51% remaining QALYs). The risk was higher in male and black individuals. The study showed that 1%-5% of average-age current live kidney donors might develop ESRD as a result of nephrectomy. The added risk of ESRD resulted in a loss of only 0.126-0.344 remaining life years. Most of the loss of life was predicted to be associated with chronic kidney disease (CKD) not ESRD. Most events occurred 25 or more years after donation. Reducing the increased risk of death associated with CKD had a modest overall effect on the per cent loss of remaining life years (0.72%-1.9%) and QALYs (0.58%-1.33%). Smoking and obesity reduced life expectancy and increased overall lifetime risks of ESRD in non-donors. However the percentage loss of remaining life years from donation was not very different in those with or without these risk factors. Live kidney donation may reduce life expectancy by 0.5-1 year in most donors. The development of ESRD in donors may not be the only measure of risk as most of the predicted loss of life predates ESRD. The study identifies the potential importance of following donors and treating risk factors aggressively to prevent ESRD and to improve donor survival. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Model Verification and Validation Concepts for a Probabilistic Fracture Assessment Model to Predict Cracking of Knife Edge Seals in the Space Shuttle Main Engine High Pressure Oxidizer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pai, Shantaram S.; Riha, David S.

2013-01-01

Physics-based models are routinely used to predict the performance of engineered systems to make decisions such as when to retire system components, how to extend the life of an aging system, or if a new design will be safe or available. Model verification and validation (V&V) is a process to establish credibility in model predictions. Ideally, carefully controlled validation experiments will be designed and performed to validate models or submodels. In reality, time and cost constraints limit experiments and even model development. This paper describes elements of model V&V during the development and application of a probabilistic fracture assessment model to predict cracking in space shuttle main engine high-pressure oxidizer turbopump knife-edge seals. The objective of this effort was to assess the probability of initiating and growing a crack to a specified failure length in specific flight units for different usage and inspection scenarios. The probabilistic fracture assessment model developed in this investigation combined a series of submodels describing the usage, temperature history, flutter tendencies, tooth stresses and numbers of cycles, fatigue cracking, nondestructive inspection, and finally the probability of failure. The analysis accounted for unit-to-unit variations in temperature, flutter limit state, flutter stress magnitude, and fatigue life properties. The investigation focused on the calculation of relative risk rather than absolute risk between the usage scenarios. Verification predictions were first performed for three units with known usage and cracking histories to establish credibility in the model predictions. Then, numerous predictions were performed for an assortment of operating units that had flown recently or that were projected for future flights. Calculations were performed using two NASA-developed software tools: NESSUS(Registered Trademark) for the probabilistic analysis, and NASGRO(Registered Trademark) for the fracture mechanics analysis. The goal of these predictions was to provide additional information to guide decisions on the potential of reusing existing and installed units prior to the new design certification.

Validation of a modified Medical Resource Model for mass gatherings.

PubMed

Smith, Wayne P; Tuffin, Heather; Stratton, Samuel J; Wallis, Lee A

2013-02-01

A modified Medical Resource Model to predict the medical resources required at mass gatherings based on the risk profile of events has been developed. This study was undertaken to validate this tool using data from events held in both a developed and a developing country. A retrospective study was conducted utilizing prospectively gathered data from individual events at Old Trafford Stadium in Manchester, United Kingdom, and Ellis Park Stadium, Johannesburg, South Africa. Both stadia are similar in design and spectator capacity. Data for Professional Football as well as Rugby League and Rugby Union (respectively) matches were used for the study. The medical resources predicted for the events were determined by entering the risk profile of each of the events into the Medical Resource Model. A recently developed South African tool was used to predetermine medical staffing for mass gatherings. For the study, the medical resources actually required to deal with the patient load for events within the control sample from the two stadia were compared with the number of needed resources predicted by the Medical Resource Model when that tool was applied retrospectively to the study events. The comparison was used to determine if the newly developed tool was either over- or under-predicting the resource requirements. In the case of Ellis Park, the model under-predicted the basic life support (BLS) requirement for 1.5% of the events in the data set. Mean over-prediction was 209.1 minutes for BLS availability. Old Trafford displayed no events for which the Medical Resource Model would have under-predicted. The mean over-prediction of BLS availability for Old Trafford was 671.6 minutes. The intermediate life support (ILS) requirement for Ellis Park was under-predicted for seven of the total 66 events (10.6% of the events), all of which had one factor in common, that being relatively low spectator attendance numbers. Modelling for ILS at Old Trafford did not under-predict for any events. The ILS requirements showed a mean over-prediction of 161.4 minutes ILS availability for Ellis Park compared with 425.2 minutes for Old Trafford. Of the events held at Ellis Park, the Medical Resource Model under-predicted the ambulance requirement in 4.5% of the events. For Old Trafford events, the under-prediction was higher: 7.5% of cases. The medical resources that are deployed at a mass gathering should best match the requirement for patient care at a particular event. An important consideration for any model is that it does not continually under-predict the resources required in relation to the actual requirement. With the exception of a specific subset of events at Ellis Park, the rate of under-prediction for this model was acceptable.

The Need for Technology Maturity of Any Advanced Capability to Achieve Better Life Cycle Cost (LCC)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robinson, John W.; Levack, Daniel J. H.; Rhodes, Russel E.; Chen, Timothy T.

2009-01-01

Programs such as space transportation systems are developed and deployed only rarely, and they have long development schedules and large development and life cycle costs (LCC). They have not historically had their LCC predicted well and have only had an effort to control the DDT&E phase of the programs. One of the factors driving the predictability, and thus control, of the LCC of a program is the maturity of the technologies incorporated in the program. If the technologies incorporated are less mature (as measured by their Technology Readiness Level - TRL), then the LCC not only increases but the degree of increase is difficult to predict. Consequently, new programs avoid incorporating technologies unless they are quite mature, generally TRL greater than or equal to 7 (system prototype demonstrated in a space environment) to allow better predictability of the DDT&E phase costs unless there is no alternative. On the other hand, technology development programs rarely develop technologies beyond TRL 6 (system/subsystem model or prototype demonstrated in a relevant environment). Currently the lack of development funds beyond TRL 6 and the major funding required for full scale development leave little or no funding available to prototype TRL 6 concepts so that hardware would be in the ready mode for safe, reliable and cost effective incorporation. The net effect is that each new program either incorporates little new technology or has longer development schedules and costs, and higher LCC, than planned. This paper presents methods to ensure that advanced technologies are incorporated into future programs while providing a greater accuracy of predicting their LCC. One method is having a dedicated organization to develop X-series vehicles or separate prototypes carried on other vehicles. The question of whether such an organization should be independent of NASA and/or have an independent funding source is discussed. Other methods are also discussed. How to make the choice of which technologies to pursue to the prototype level is also discussed since, to achieve better LCC, first the selection of the appropriate technologies.

Environmental proxies of antigen exposure explain variation in immune investment better than indices of pace of life.

PubMed

Horrocks, Nicholas P C; Hegemann, Arne; Ostrowski, Stéphane; Ndithia, Henry; Shobrak, Mohammed; Williams, Joseph B; Matson, Kevin D; Tieleman, B I

2015-01-01

Investment in immune defences is predicted to covary with a variety of ecologically and evolutionarily relevant axes, with pace of life and environmental antigen exposure being two examples. These axes may themselves covary directly or inversely, and such relationships can lead to conflicting predictions regarding immune investment. If pace of life shapes immune investment then, following life history theory, slow-living, arid zone and tropical species should invest more in immunity than fast-living temperate species. Alternatively, if antigen exposure drives immune investment, then species in antigen-rich tropical and temperate environments are predicted to exhibit higher immune indices than species from antigen-poor arid locations. To test these contrasting predictions we investigated how variation in pace of life and antigen exposure influence immune investment in related lark species (Alaudidae) with differing life histories and predicted risks of exposure to environmental microbes and parasites. We used clutch size and total number of eggs laid per year as indicators of pace of life, and aridity, and the climatic variables that influence aridity, as correlates of antigen abundance. We quantified immune investment by measuring four indices of innate immunity. Pace of life explained little of the variation in immune investment, and only one immune measure correlated significantly with pace of life, but not in the predicted direction. Conversely, aridity, our proxy for environmental antigen exposure, was predictive of immune investment, and larks in more mesic environments had higher immune indices than those living in arid, low-risk locations. Our study suggests that abiotic environmental variables with strong ties to environmental antigen exposure can be important correlates of immunological variation.

Life modeling of thermal barrier coatings for aircraft gas turbine engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, R. A.

1989-01-01

Thermal barrier coating life models developed under the NASA Lewis Research Center's Hot Section Technology (HOST) Program are summarized. An initial laboratory model and three design-capable models are discussed. Current understanding of coating failure mechanisms are also summarized. The materials and structural aspects of thermal barrier coatings have been successfully integrated under the HOST program to produce models which may now or in the near future be used in design. Efforts on this program continue at Pratt and Whitney Aircraft where their model is being extended to the life prediction of physical vapor deposited thermal barrier coatings.

Shuttle environmental and thermal control/life support system computer program, supplement 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ayotte, W. J.

1975-01-01

The computer programs developed to simulate the RSECS (Representative Shuttle Environmental Control System) were described. These programs were prepared to provide pretest predictions, post-test analysis and real time problem analysis for RSECS test planning and evaluation.

Development of local calibration factors and design criteria values for mechanistic-empirical pavement design.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-08-01

A mechanistic-empirical (ME) pavement design procedure allows for analyzing and selecting pavement structures based : on predicted distress progression resulting from stresses and strains within the pavement over its design life. The Virginia : Depar...

Forecasting Alzheimer's Disease.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fackelmann, Kathleen

1996-01-01

Suggests that doctors may one day be able to identify healthy people who will develop Alzheimer's disease. Discusses recent studies in which characteristics of a person's writing early in life appear to predict the disease, and brain scans can highlight changes that may precede dementia. (CCM)

A comparison of fatigue life prediction methodologies for rotorcraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Everett, R. A., Jr.

1990-01-01

Because of the current U.S. Army requirement that all new rotorcraft be designed to a 'six nines' reliability on fatigue life, this study was undertaken to assess the accuracy of the current safe life philosophy using the nominal stress Palmgrem-Miner linear cumulative damage rule to predict the fatigue life of rotorcraft dynamic components. It has been shown that this methodology can predict fatigue lives that differ from test lives by more than two orders of magnitude. A further objective of this work was to compare the accuracy of this methodology to another safe life method called the local strain approach as well as to a method which predicts fatigue life based solely on crack growth data. Spectrum fatigue tests were run on notched (k(sub t) = 3.2) specimens made of 4340 steel using the Felix/28 tests fairly well, being slightly on the unconservative side of the test data. The crack growth method, which is based on 'small crack' crack growth data and a crack-closure model, also predicted the fatigue lives very well with the predicted lives being slightly longer that the mean test lives but within the experimental scatter band. The crack growth model was also able to predict the change in test lives produced by the rainflow reconstructed spectra.

A Novel Approach to Rotorcraft Damage Tolerance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Forth, Scott C.; Everett, Richard A.; Newman, John A.

2002-01-01

Damage-tolerance methodology is positioned to replace safe-life methodologies for designing rotorcraft structures. The argument for implementing a damage-tolerance method comes from the fundamental fact that rotorcraft structures typically fail by fatigue cracking. Therefore, if technology permits prediction of fatigue-crack growth in structures, a damage-tolerance method should deliver the most accurate prediction of component life. Implementing damage-tolerance (DT) into high-cycle-fatigue (HCF) components will require a shift from traditional DT methods that rely on detecting an initial flaw with nondestructive inspection (NDI) methods. The rapid accumulation of cycles in a HCF component will result in a design based on a traditional DT method that is either impractical because of frequent inspections, or because the design will be too heavy to operate efficiently. Furthermore, once a HCF component develops a detectable propagating crack, the remaining fatigue life is short, sometimes less than one flight hour, which does not leave sufficient time for inspection. Therefore, designing a HCF component will require basing the life analysis on an initial flaw that is undetectable with current NDI technology.

Depression and anger across 25 years: changing vulnerabilities in the VSA model.

PubMed

Johnson, Matthew D; Galambos, Nancy L; Krahn, Harvey J

2014-04-01

Guided by the vulnerability-stress adaptation (VSA) model of marriage and a developmental systems perspective, the current study examined the association of mental health trajectories (depressive symptoms and expressed anger) across the transition to adulthood (ages 18 to 25) with perceived life stress in young adulthood (age 32) and adaptive interaction with a romantic partner and relationship risk at midlife (age 43), accounting for concurrent age 43 mental health. Data from a 25-year prospective, longitudinal study of 341 Canadians (178 women and 163 men) show age 18 levels of both mental health variables predicted perceived life stress and intimate relationship outcomes. The slopes for expressed anger and depressive symptoms were associated with perceived life stress, and relationship risk was also predicted by the slope of expressed anger. Higher perceived life stress at age 32 was associated with less adaptive interaction and increased relationship risk at age 43. Evidence for mediating effects was also found. Implications for theory development, future research, and clinical intervention are discussed. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

The relationship between psychological resources, social resources, and depression: results from older spousal caregivers in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Chow, Esther O W; Ho, Henry C Y

2012-01-01

The rapidly ageing population in Hong Kong has led to a major concern in providing care for the elderly. Due to the current social changes in Hong Kong, such as smaller family size, longer life spans, and increasing employment demands, spouses increasingly serve as the primary caregivers for older adults. To explore the mental health of older spousal caregivers, this study investigated the relationships between psychological resources, social resources, and depression. One hundred fifty-eight spousal caregivers aged 55 and above were recruited from 13 caregiver resource centres in Hong Kong. Data were collected using structured questionnaires. Hierarchical regression analysis revealed that the number of duties and psychological resources including purpose in life, caregiver burden, and personal wellbeing explained 56% of the variance in depression. Logistic regression analysis further indicated that purpose in life predicted the likelihood of depression reported by caregivers. Social resources did not significantly predict depression. Results suggest that mental health enhancement programs should be developed for Chinese spousal caregivers with a focus on purpose in life, burden, and personal wellbeing.

Life Modeling and Design Analysis for Ceramic Matrix Composite Materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2005-01-01

The primary research efforts focused on characterizing and modeling static failure, environmental durability, and creep-rupture behavior of two classes of ceramic matrix composites (CMC), silicon carbide fibers in a silicon carbide matrix (SiC/SiC) and carbon fibers in a silicon carbide matrix (C/SiC). An engineering life prediction model (Probabilistic Residual Strength model) has been developed specifically for CMCs. The model uses residual strength as the damage metric for evaluating remaining life and is posed probabilistically in order to account for the stochastic nature of the material s response. In support of the modeling effort, extensive testing of C/SiC in partial pressures of oxygen has been performed. This includes creep testing, tensile testing, half life and residual tensile strength testing. C/SiC is proposed for airframe and propulsion applications in advanced reusable launch vehicles. Figures 1 and 2 illustrate the models predictive capabilities as well as the manner in which experimental tests are being selected in such a manner as to ensure sufficient data is available to aid in model validation.

Stress and Coping as Predictors of Young Children's Development and Psychosocial Adjustment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carson, David K.; Swanson, Dee M.

A total of 38 children of 5-6 years in one of four early childhood or kindergarten programs participated in a study of the predictive relationship of stress and coping to development and psychosocial adjustment. Measures of independent variables included the Life Events Scale for Children, Family Invulnerability Test, Hassles Scale for Children,…

Development of Alternatives to Chronic Ecotoxicity Tests: Predicting Early-life Stage and Endocrine-mediated Toxicity in Aquatic Vertebrate Species

EPA Science Inventory

In June 2010, the ILSI Health and Environmental Sciences Institute (HESI) with support from sanofi-aventis, NC3Rs, the Humane Society, L’Oreal, and ECVAM, held a workshop aimed at examining critical science needs related to the development of alternatives to chronic fish toxicity...

Exposure to stressful life events during pregnancy predicts psychotic experiences via behaviour problems in childhood.

PubMed

Betts, Kim S; Williams, Gail M; Najman, Jakob M; Scott, James; Alati, Rosa

2014-12-01

Exposure to stressful life events during pregnancy has been associated with later schizophrenia in offspring. We explore how prenatal stress and neurodevelopmental abnormalities in childhood associate to increase the risk of later psychotic experiences. Participants from the Mater University Study of Pregnancy (MUSP), an Australian based, pre-birth cohort study were examined for lifetime DSM-IV positive psychotic experiences at 21 years by a semi-structured interview (n = 2227). Structural equation modelling suggested psychotic experiences were best represented with a bifactor model including a general psychosis factor and two group factors. We tested for an association between prenatal stressful life events with the psychotic experiences, and examined for potential moderation and mediation by behaviour problems and cognitive ability in childhood. Prenatal stressful life events predicted psychotic experiences indirectly via behaviour problems at child age five years, and this relationship was not confounded by maternal stressful life events at child age five. We found no statistical evidence for an interaction between prenatal stressful life events and behaviour problems or cognitive ability. The measurable effect of prenatal stressful life events on later psychotic experiences in offspring manifested as behaviour problems by age 5. By identifying early abnormal behavioural development as an intermediary, this finding further confirms the role of prenatal stress to later psychotic disorders. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cross-cultural Comparison of Learning in Human Hunting : Implications for Life History Evolution.

PubMed

MacDonald, Katharine

2007-12-01

This paper is a cross-cultural examination of the development of hunting skills and the implications for the debate on the role of learning in the evolution of human life history patterns. While life history theory has proven to be a powerful tool for understanding the evolution of the human life course, other schools, such as cultural transmission and social learning theory, also provide theoretical insights. These disparate theories are reviewed, and alternative and exclusive predictions are identified. This study of cross-cultural regularities in how children learn hunting skills, based on the ethnographic literature on traditional hunters, complements existing empirical work and highlights future areas for investigation.

PARENTAL ASSISTANCE, NEGATIVE LIFE EVENTS, AND ATTAINMENT DURING THE TRANSITION TO ADULTHOOD

PubMed Central

Swartz, Teresa Toguchi; McLaughlin, Heather; Mortimer, Jeylan T.

2016-01-01

Responding to the longer and more variable transition to adulthood, parents are stepping in to help their young adult children. Little is known, however, about the extent to which parental support promotes success, and whether parental support has different effects for young adult sons and daughters. Using longitudinal data from the Youth Development Study, we find that parental scaffolding assistance for educational expenses predicts college graduation for both men and women. Negative life events experienced during the transition to adulthood are associated with lower earnings by the early 30s, although there is some variation by type of event. More frequent parental support during times of need does not predict long-term economic attainment for sons or daughters. PMID:28239198

PARENTAL ASSISTANCE, NEGATIVE LIFE EVENTS, AND ATTAINMENT DURING THE TRANSITION TO ADULTHOOD.

PubMed

Swartz, Teresa Toguchi; McLaughlin, Heather; Mortimer, Jeylan T

2017-01-01

Responding to the longer and more variable transition to adulthood, parents are stepping in to help their young adult children. Little is known, however, about the extent to which parental support promotes success, and whether parental support has different effects for young adult sons and daughters. Using longitudinal data from the Youth Development Study, we find that parental scaffolding assistance for educational expenses predicts college graduation for both men and women. Negative life events experienced during the transition to adulthood are associated with lower earnings by the early 30s, although there is some variation by type of event. More frequent parental support during times of need does not predict long-term economic attainment for sons or daughters.

Lower levels of maternal capital in early life predict offspring obesity in adulthood.

PubMed

Gillette, Meghan T; Lohman, Brenda J; Neppl, Tricia K

2017-05-01

As of 2013, 65% of the world's population lived in countries where overweight/obesity kills more people than being underweight. Evolutionary perspectives provide a holistic understanding of both how and why obesity develops and its long-term implications. To test whether the maternal capital hypothesis, an evolutionary perspective, is viable for explaining the development of obesity in adulthood. Restricted-use data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health; n = 11 403) was analysed using logistic regressions. The sample included adolescents and their biological mothers. The odds of obesity in adulthood increased by 22% for every standard deviation increase in lack of maternal capital (Exp (B) = 1.22, p < .001). That is, individuals whose mothers were young, of an ethnic minority and had short breastfeeding durations were more likely to be obese in adulthood, even after controlling for other factors in infancy, adolescence and adulthood. The results showed that those whose mothers had lower capital were more prone to later life disease (specifically, obesity). The maternal capital perspective is useful for explaining how and why early life characteristics (including maternal resources) predict obesity in adulthood. Implications of the findings are discussed.

Predicting life satisfaction of the Angolan elderly: a structural model.

PubMed

Gutiérrez, M; Tomás, J M; Galiana, L; Sancho, P; Cebrià, M A

2013-01-01

Satisfaction with life is of particular interest in the study of old age well-being because it has arisen as an important component of old age. A considerable amount of research has been done to explain life satisfaction in the elderly, and there is growing empirical evidence on best predictors of life satisfaction. This research evaluates the predictive power of some aging process variables, on Angolan elderly people's life satisfaction, while including perceived health into the model. Data for this research come from a cross-sectional survey of elderly people living in the capital of Angola, Luanda. A total of 1003 Angolan elderly were surveyed on socio-demographic information, perceived health, active engagement, generativity, and life satisfaction. A Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes model was built to test variables' predictive power on life satisfaction. The estimated theoretical model fitted the data well. The main predictors were those related to active engagement with others. Perceived health also had a significant and positive effect on life satisfaction. Several processes together may predict life satisfaction in the elderly population of Angola, and the variance accounted for it is large enough to be considered relevant. The key factor associated to life satisfaction seems to be active engagement with others.

Safe Life Propulsion Design Technologies (3rd Generation Propulsion Research and Technology)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ellis, Rod

2000-01-01

The tasks outlined in this viewgraph presentation on safe life propulsion design technologies (third generation propulsion research and technology) include the following: (1) Ceramic matrix composite (CMC) life prediction methods; (2) Life prediction methods for ultra high temperature polymer matrix composites for reusable launch vehicle (RLV) airframe and engine application; (3) Enabling design and life prediction technology for cost effective large-scale utilization of MMCs and innovative metallic material concepts; (4) Probabilistic analysis methods for brittle materials and structures; (5) Damage assessment in CMC propulsion components using nondestructive characterization techniques; and (6) High temperature structural seals for RLV applications.

Glass Fibre/Epoxy Resin Interface Life-Time Prediction.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-04-01

RD-Ai32 26 GLASS FIBRE /POXY RESIN INTERFACE LIFE-TIME PREDICTION 1/1 (U) BRISTOL UNIV (ENGLAND) H H WILLS PHYSICS LAB K H RSHBEE ET AL. APR 83...D 3005-MS GLASS FIBRE /EPOXY RESIN INTERFACE LIFE-TIME PREDICTION - Final Report by K H G Ashbee, Principal Investigator R Ho~l J P Sargent Elizabeth...REPORT h PERIOD COVERED. Glass Fibre /Epoxy Resin Interface Life-time F-inal Technical 11’ port PreictonApril 1981 - A:’ril 1983 6. PERFORMING ORG. REPORT

Sticking to the (romantic) script: an examination of love life scripts, stories, and self-reports of normality.

PubMed

Dunlop, William L; Hanley, Grace E; McCoy, Tara P; Harake, Nicole

2017-11-01

Life scripts represent cultural expectations regarding the events in the prototypical life whereas life stories represent narrative constructions of the events occurring in individuals' own lives. In Study 1, we generated an outline of the love life script and a list of the self-definitional events individuals tend to associate with their own love lives. Participants were prompted to produce and rate seven important events in the prototypical love life and several significant moments from their own love lives. Building upon these descriptive efforts, in Study 2, we developed self-report measures of perceived and desired love life normality. These characteristics positively predicted the conventionality of autobiographical narratives drawn from participants' love life stories. Furthermore, perceived normality and desired normality were positively and negatively related to functioning within the romantic domain, respectively. These results underscore the role love life scripts and love life stories play in functioning within the romantic domain.

Purpose, Mood, and Pleasure in Predicting Satisfaction Judgments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Diener, Ed; Fujita, Frank; Tay, Louis; Biswas-Diener, Robert

2012-01-01

We examined the extent to which satisfaction with life, with one's self, and with one's day are predicted by pleasure, purpose in life, interest, and mood. In a sample of 222 college students we found that both satisfaction with life and self-esteem were best predicted by positive feelings and an absence of negative feelings, as well as purpose in…

Life prediction of coated and uncoated metallic interconnect for solid oxide fuel cell applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, W. N.; Sun, X.; Stephens, E.; Khaleel, M. A.

In this paper, we present an integrated experimental and modeling methodology in predicting the life of coated and uncoated metallic interconnect (IC) for solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) applications. The ultimate goal is to provide cell designer and manufacture with a predictive methodology such that the life of the IC system can be managed and optimized through different coating thickness to meet the overall cell designed life. Crofer 22 APU is used as the example IC material system. The life of coated and uncoated Crofer 22 APU under isothermal cooling was predicted by comparing the predicted interfacial strength and the interfacial stresses induced by the cooling process from the operating temperature to room temperature, together with the measured oxide scale growth kinetics. It was found that the interfacial strength between the oxide scale and the Crofer 22 APU substrate decreases with the growth of the oxide scale, and that the interfacial strength for the oxide scale/spinel coating interface is much higher than that of the oxide scale/Crofer 22 APU substrate interface. As expected, the predicted life of the coated Crofer 22 APU is significantly longer than that of the uncoated Crofer 22 APU.

Does stress mediate the development of substance use disorders among youth transitioning to young adulthood?

PubMed

Cornelius, Jack; Kirisci, Levent; Reynolds, Maureen; Tarter, Ralph

2014-05-01

Stress is a well-documented factor in the development of addiction. However, no longitudinal studies to date have assessed the role of stress in mediating the development of substance use disorders (SUD). Our previous results have demonstrated that a measure called Transmissible Liability Index (TLI) assessed during pre-adolescent years serves as a significant predictor of risk for substance use disorder among young adults. However, it remains unclear whether life stress mediates the relationship between TLI and SUD, or whether stress predicts SUD. We conducted a longitudinal study involving 191 male subjects to assess whether life stress mediates the relationship between TLI as assessed at age 10-12 and subsequent development of SUD at age 22, after controlling for other relevant factors. Logistic regression demonstrated that the development of SUD at age 22 was associated with stress at age 19. A path analysis demonstrated that stress at age 19 significantly predicted SUD at age 22. However, stress did not mediate the relationship between the TLI assessed at age 10-12 and SUD in young adulthood. These findings confirm that stress plays a role in the development of SUD, but also shows that stress does not mediate the development of SUD. Further studies are warranted to clarify the role of stress in the etiology of SUD.

A Multi-Scale Structural Health Monitoring Approach for Damage Detection, Diagnosis and Prognosis in Aerospace Structures

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-01-20

ultrasonic Lamb waves to plastic strain and fatigue life. Theory was developed and validated to predict second harmonic generation for specific mode... Fatigue and damage generation and progression are processes consisting of a series of interrelated events that span large scales of space and time...strain and fatigue life A set of experiments were completed that worked to relate the acoustic nonlinearity measured with Lamb waves to both the

Qualification of Life Extension Schemes for Engine Components (Homologation des Programmes de Prolongation du cycle de vie des Organes Moteur)

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-03-01

cycle managers include (1) improving the durability of components through material substitution, or the addition of protective coatings, (2) returning... including in service trials, is required to demonstrate that the repaired and/or modified component is safe to use and remains so once returned to...Better Turbine Materials and Technology Including 5 Predicted Life Improvements by T.J. Williams Repair Developments to Fit Customer Needs (Presented

Environment assisted degradation mechanisms in advanced light metals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gangloff, R. P.; Stoner, G. E.; Swanson, R. E.

1989-01-01

A multifaceted research program on the performance of advanced light metallic alloys in aggressive aerospace environments, and associated environmental failure mechanisms was initiated. The general goal is to characterize alloy behavior quantitatively and to develop predictive mechanisms for environmental failure modes. Successes in this regard will provide the basis for metallurgical optimization of alloy performance, for chemical control of aggressive environments, and for engineering life prediction with damage tolerance and long term reliability.

Development of a diagnostic decision tree for obstructive pulmonary diseases based on real-life data

PubMed Central

in ’t Veen, Johannes C.C.M.; Dekhuijzen, P.N. Richard; van Heijst, Ellen; Kocks, Janwillem W.H.; Muilwijk-Kroes, Jacqueline B.; Chavannes, Niels H.; van der Molen, Thys

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to develop and explore the diagnostic accuracy of a decision tree derived from a large real-life primary care population. Data from 9297 primary care patients (45% male, mean age 53±17 years) with suspicion of an obstructive pulmonary disease was derived from an asthma/chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) service where patients were assessed using spirometry, the Asthma Control Questionnaire, the Clinical COPD Questionnaire, history data and medication use. All patients were diagnosed through the Internet by a pulmonologist. The Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection method was used to build the decision tree. The tree was externally validated in another real-life primary care population (n=3215). Our tree correctly diagnosed 79% of the asthma patients, 85% of the COPD patients and 32% of the asthma–COPD overlap syndrome (ACOS) patients. External validation showed a comparable pattern (correct: asthma 78%, COPD 83%, ACOS 24%). Our decision tree is considered to be promising because it was based on real-life primary care patients with a specialist's diagnosis. In most patients the diagnosis could be correctly predicted. Predicting ACOS, however, remained a challenge. The total decision tree can be implemented in computer-assisted diagnostic systems for individual patients. A simplified version of this tree can be used in daily clinical practice as a desk tool. PMID:27730177

Kinetics of changes in shelf life parameters during storage of pearl millet based kheer mix and development of a shelf life prediction model.

PubMed

Bunkar, Durga Shankar; Jha, Alok; Mahajan, Ankur; Unnikrishnan, V S

2014-12-01

Pearl millet, dairy whitener and sugar powder were blended for preparing pearl millet kheer mix. Pearl millet based kheer mix samples were stored at 8, 25, 37 and 45 °C under nitrogen flushing environment. Changes in HMF and TBA formation in the dry mix and sensory changes in reconstituted kheer were studied upto 180 days. In fresh dry mix, the average value of HMF recorded was 4.87 μmol/g which increased to 11.23, 13.67, 18.13, and 21.43 μmol/g at 8, 25, 37 and 45 °C, respectively after 180 days of storage. From an initial value of 0.067, the TBA value increased to 0.219, 0.311, 0.432 and 0.613 at 532 nm at 8, 25, 37 and 45 °C, respectively after 180 days of storage. Data generated from the chemical kinetics of HMF and TBA development that progressed during storage of pearl millet kheer mix were modeled using Arrhenius equations to predict the shelf life of the product. Changes in HMF and TBA followed first order reaction kinetics. It was found that the potential shelf life of the pearl millet based kheer mix was 396 days at 8 and 288 days at 25 °C, respectively.

Study on constant-step stress accelerated life tests in white organic light-emitting diodes.

PubMed

Zhang, J P; Liu, C; Chen, X; Cheng, G L; Zhou, A X

2014-11-01

In order to obtain reliability information for a white organic light-emitting diode (OLED), two constant and one step stress tests were conducted with its working current increased. The Weibull function was applied to describe the OLED life distribution, and the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and its iterative flow chart were used to calculate shape and scale parameters. Furthermore, the accelerated life equation was determined using the least squares method, a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was performed to assess if the white OLED life follows a Weibull distribution, and self-developed software was used to predict the average and the median lifetimes of the OLED. The numerical results indicate that white OLED life conforms to a Weibull distribution, and that the accelerated life equation completely satisfies the inverse power law. The estimated life of a white OLED may provide significant guidelines for its manufacturers and customers. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Fatigue life analysis for traction drives with application to a toroidal type geometry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coy, J. J.; Loewenthal, S. H.; Zaretsky, E. V.

1976-01-01

A contact fatigue life analysis for traction drives was developed which was based on a modified Lundberg-Palmgren theory. The analysis was used to predict life for a cone-roller toroidal traction drive. A 90-percent probability of survival was assumed for the calculated life. Parametric results were presented for life and Hertz contact stress as a function of load, drive ratio, and size. A design study was also performed. The results were compared to previously published work for the dual cavity toroidal drive as applied to a typical compact passenger vehicle drive train. For a representative duty cycle condition wherein the engine delivers 29 horsepower at 2000 rpm with the vehicle moving at 48.3 km/hr (30 mph) the drive life was calculated to be 19,200 km (11 900 miles).

Perceived parental rearing behaviours, responsibility attitudes and life events as predictors of obsessive compulsive symptomatology: test of a cognitive model.

PubMed

Haciomeroglu, Bikem; Karanci, A Nuray

2014-11-01

It is important to investigate the role of cognitive, developmental and environmental factors in the development and maintenance of Obsessive Compulsive Symptomatology (OCS). The main objective of this study was to examine the vulnerability factors of OCS in a non-clinical sample. On the basis of Salkovskis' cognitive model of OCD, the study aimed to investigate the role of perceived parental rearing behaviours, responsibility attitudes, and life events in predicting OCS. Furthermore, the mediator role of responsibility attitudes in the relationship between perceived parental rearing behaviours and OCS was examined. Finally, the specificity of these variables to OCS was evaluated by examining the relationship of the same variables with depression and trait anxiety. A total of 300 university students (M = 19.55±1.79) were administered the Padua Inventory-Washington State University Revision, Responsibility Attitudes Scale, s-EMBU (My memories of upbringing), Life Events Inventory for University Students, Beck Depression Inventory, and State-Trait Anxiety Inventory-Trait Form. Regression analysis revealed that perceived mother overprotection, responsibility attitudes and life events significantly predicted OCS. Furthermore, responsibility attitudes mediated the relationship between perceived mother overprotection and OCS. The predictive role of perceived mother overprotection and the mediator role responsibility attitudes were OCS specific. The findings of the present study supported that perceived mother over-protection as a developmental vulnerability factor significantly contributed to the explanation of a cognitive vulnerability factor (namely responsibility attitudes), and perceived maternal overprotection had its predictive role for OCS through responsibility attitudes.

Fatigue analysis of multiple site damage at a row of holes in a wide panel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buhler, Kimberley; Grandt, Alten F., Jr.; Moukawsher, E. J.

1994-01-01

This paper is concerned with predicting the fatigue life of unstiffened panels which contain multiple site damage (MSD). The initial damage consists of through-the-thickness cracks emanating from a row of holes in the center of a finite width panel. A fracture mechanics analysis has been developed to predict the growth, interaction, and coalescence of the various cracks which propagate in the panel. A strain-life analysis incorporating Neuber's rule for notches, and Miner's rule for cumulative damage, is also employed to predict crack initiation for holes without initial cracking. This analysis is compared with the results of a series of fatigue tests on 2024-T3 aluminum panels, and is shown to do an excellent job of predicting the influence of MSD on the fatigue life of nine inch wide specimens. Having established confidence in the ability to analyze the influence of MSD on fatigue life, a parametric study is conducted to examine the influence of various MSD scenarios in an unstiffened panel. The numerical study considered 135 cases in all, with the parametric variables being the applied cyclic stress level, the lead crack geometry, and the number and location of MSD cracks. The numerical analysis provides details for the manner in which lead cracks and MSD cracks grow and coalesce leading to final failure. The results indicate that MSD located adjacent to lead cracks is the most damaging configuration, while for cases without lead cracks, MSD clusters which are not separated by uncracked holes are most damaging.

Above-knee prosthesis design based on fatigue life using finite element method and design of experiment.

PubMed

Phanphet, Suwattanarwong; Dechjarern, Surangsee; Jomjanyong, Sermkiat

2017-05-01

The main objective of this work is to improve the standard of the existing design of knee prosthesis developed by Thailand's Prostheses Foundation of Her Royal Highness The Princess Mother. The experimental structural tests, based on the ISO 10328, of the existing design showed that a few components failed due to fatigue under normal cyclic loading below the required number of cycles. The finite element (FE) simulations of structural tests on the knee prosthesis were carried out. Fatigue life predictions of knee component materials were modeled based on the Morrow's approach. The fatigue life prediction based on the FE model result was validated with the corresponding structural test and the results agreed well. The new designs of the failed components were studied using the design of experimental approach and finite element analysis of the ISO 10328 structural test of knee prostheses under two separated loading cases. Under ultimate loading, knee prosthesis peak von Mises stress must be less than the yield strength of knee component's material and the total knee deflection must be lower than 2.5mm. The fatigue life prediction of all knee components must be higher than 3,000,000 cycles under normal cyclic loading. The design parameters are the thickness of joint bars, the diameter of lower connector and the thickness of absorber-stopper. The optimized knee prosthesis design meeting all the requirements was recommended. Experimental ISO 10328 structural test of the fabricated knee prosthesis based on the optimized design confirmed the finite element prediction. Copyright © 2017 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Someone to live for: effects of partner and dependent children on preventable death in a population wide sample from Northern Ireland

PubMed Central

Uggla, Caroline; Mace, Ruth

2015-01-01

How to allocate resources between somatic maintenance and reproduction in a manner that maximizes inclusive fitness is a fundamental challenge for all organisms. Life history theory predicts that effort put into somatic maintenance (health) should vary with sex, mating and parenting status because men and women have different costs of reproduction, and because life transitions such as family formation alter the fitness payoffs from investing in current versus future reproduction. However, few tests of how such life history parameters influence behaviours closely linked to survival exist. Here we examine whether specific forms of preventable death (accidents/suicides, alcohol-related causes, and other preventable diseases) are predicted by marital status and dependent offspring in a modern developed context; that of Northern Ireland. We predict that men, non-partnered individuals and individuals who do not have dependent offspring will be at higher risk of preventable death. Running survival analyses on the entire adult population (aged 16–59, n = 927,134) controlling for socioeconomic position (SEP) and other potential confounds, we find that being single (compared to cohabiting/married) increases risk of accidental/suicide death for men (but not for women), whereas having dependent children is associated with lower risk of preventable mortality for women but less so for men. We also find that the protective effect of partners is larger for men with low SEP than for high SEP men. Findings support life history predictions and suggest that individuals respond to variation in fitness costs linked to their mating and parenting status. PMID:25593513

Process and Structural Health Monitoring of Composite Structures with Embedded Fiber Optic Sensors and Piezoelectric Transducers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keulen, Casey James

Advanced composite materials are becoming increasingly more valuable in a plethora of engineering applications due to properties such as tailorability, low specific strength and stiffness and resistance to fatigue and corrosion. Compared to more traditional metallic and ceramic materials, advanced composites such as carbon, aramid or glass reinforced plastic are relatively new and still require research to optimize their capabilities. Three areas that composites stand to benefit from improvement are processing, damage detection and life prediction. Fiber optic sensors and piezoelectric transducers show great potential for advances in these areas. This dissertation presents the research performed on improving the efficiency of advanced composite materials through the use of embedded fiber optic sensors and surface mounted piezoelectric transducers. Embedded fiber optic sensors are used to detect the presence of resin during the injection stage of resin transfer molding, monitor the degree of cure and predict the remaining useful life while in service. A sophisticated resin transfer molding apparatus was developed with the ability of embedding fiber optics into the composite and a glass viewing window so that resin flow sensors could be verified visually. A novel technique for embedding optical fiber into both 2- and 3-D structures was developed. A theoretical model to predict the remaining useful life was developed and a systematic test program was conducted to verify this model. A network of piezoelectric transducers was bonded to a composite panel in order to develop a structural health monitoring algorithm capable of detecting and locating damage in a composite structure. A network configuration was introduced that allows for a modular expansion of the system to accommodate larger structures and an algorithm based on damage progression history was developed to implement the network. The details and results of this research are contained in four manuscripts that are included in Appendices A-D while the body of the dissertation provides background information and a summary of the results.

An interspecies correlation model to predict acute dermal toxicity of plant protection products to terrestrial life stages of amphibians using fish acute toxicity and bioconcentration data.

PubMed

Weltje, Lennart; Janz, Philipp; Sowig, Peter

2017-12-01

This paper presents a model to predict acute dermal toxicity of plant protection products (PPPs) to terrestrial amphibian life stages from (regulatory) fish data. By combining existing concepts, including interspecies correlation estimation (ICE), allometric relations, lethal body burden (LBB) and bioconcentration modelling, an equation was derived that predicts the amphibian median lethal dermal dose (LD 50 ) from standard acute toxicity values (96-h LC 50 ) for fish and bioconcentration factors (BCF) in fish. Where possible, fish BCF values were corrected to 5% lipid, and to parent compound. Then, BCF values were adjusted to an exposure duration of 96 h, in case steady state took longer to be achieved. The derived correlation equation is based on 32 LD 50 values from acute dermal toxicity experiments with 15 different species of anuran amphibians, comprising 15 different PPPs. The developed ICE model can be used in a screening approach to estimate the acute risk to amphibian terrestrial life stages from dermal exposures to PPPs with organic active substances. This has the potential to reduce unnecessary testing of vertebrates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Building and validation of a prognostic model for predicting extracorporeal circuit clotting in patients with continuous renal replacement therapy.

PubMed

Fu, Xia; Liang, Xinling; Song, Li; Huang, Huigen; Wang, Jing; Chen, Yuanhan; Zhang, Li; Quan, Zilin; Shi, Wei

2014-04-01

To develop a predictive model for circuit clotting in patients with continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT). A total of 425 cases were selected. 302 cases were used to develop a predictive model of extracorporeal circuit life span during CRRT without citrate anticoagulation in 24 h, and 123 cases were used to validate the model. The prediction formula was developed using multivariate Cox proportional-hazards regression analysis, from which a risk score was assigned. The mean survival time of the circuit was 15.0 ± 1.3 h, and the rate of circuit clotting was 66.6 % during 24 h of CRRT. Five significant variables were assigned a predicting score according to the regression coefficient: insufficient blood flow, no anticoagulation, hematocrit ≥0.37, lactic acid of arterial blood gas analysis ≤3 mmol/L and APTT < 44.2 s. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed no significant difference between the predicted and actual circuit clotting (R (2) = 0.232; P = 0.301). A risk score that includes the five above-mentioned variables can be used to predict the likelihood of extracorporeal circuit clotting in patients undergoing CRRT.

Long-Term Durability Analysis of a 100,000+ Hr Stirling Power Convertor Heater Head

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bartolotta, Paul A.; Bowman, Randy R.; Krause, David L.; Halford, Gary R.

2000-01-01

DOE and NASA have identified Stirling Radioisotope Power Systems (SRPS) as the power supply for deep space exploration missions the Europa Orbiter and Solar Probe. As a part of this effort, NASA has initiated a long-term durability project for critical hot section components of the Stirling power convertor to qualify flight hardware. This project will develop a life prediction methodology that utilizes short-term (t < 20,000 hr) test data to verify long-term (t > 100,000 hr) design life. The project consists of generating a materials database for the specific heat of alloy, evaluation of critical hermetic sealed joints, life model characterization, and model verification. This paper will describe the qualification methodology being developed and provide a status for this effort.

PREDICT-CP: study protocol of implementation of comprehensive surveillance to predict outcomes for school-aged children with cerebral palsy

PubMed Central

Boyd, Roslyn N; Davies, Peter SW; Ziviani, Jenny; Trost, Stewart; Barber, Lee; Ware, Robert; Rose, Stephen; Whittingham, Koa; Bell, Kristie; Carty, Christopher; Obst, Steven; Benfer, Katherine; Reedman, Sarah; Edwards, Priya; Kentish, Megan; Copeland, Lisa; Weir, Kelly; Davenport, Camilla; Brooks, Denise; Coulthard, Alan; Pelekanos, Rebecca; Guzzetta, Andrea; Fiori, Simona; Wynter, Meredith; Finn, Christine; Burgess, Andrea; Morris, Kym; Walsh, John; Lloyd, Owen; Whitty, Jennifer A; Scuffham, Paul A

2017-01-01

Objectives Cerebral palsy (CP) remains the world’s most common childhood physical disability with total annual costs of care and lost well-being of $A3.87b. The PREDICT-CP (NHMRC 1077257 Partnership Project: Comprehensive surveillance to PREDICT outcomes for school age children with CP) study will investigate the influence of brain structure, body composition, dietary intake, oropharyngeal function, habitual physical activity, musculoskeletal development (hip status, bone health) and muscle performance on motor attainment, cognition, executive function, communication, participation, quality of life and related health resource use costs. The PREDICT-CP cohort provides further follow-up at 8–12 years of two overlapping preschool-age cohorts examined from 1.5 to 5 years (NHMRC 465128 motor and brain development; NHMRC 569605 growth, nutrition and physical activity). Methods and analyses This population-based cohort study undertakes state-wide surveillance of 245 children with CP born in Queensland (birth years 2006–2009). Children will be classified for Gross Motor Function Classification System; Manual Ability Classification System, Communication Function Classification System and Eating and Drinking Ability Classification System. Outcomes include gross motor function, musculoskeletal development (hip displacement, spasticity, muscle contracture), upper limb function, communication difficulties, oropharyngeal dysphagia, dietary intake and body composition, participation, parent-reported and child-reported quality of life and medical and allied health resource use. These detailed phenotypical data will be compared with brain macrostructure and microstructure using 3 Tesla MRI (3T MRI). Relationships between brain lesion severity and outcomes will be analysed using multilevel mixed-effects models. Ethics and dissemination The PREDICT-CP protocol is a prospectively registered and ethically accepted study protocol. The study combines data at 1.5–5 then 8–12 years of direct clinical assessment to enable prediction of outcomes and healthcare needs essential for tailoring interventions (eg, rehabilitation, orthopaedic surgery and nutritional supplements) and the projected healthcare utilisation. Trial registration number ACTRN: 12616001488493 PMID:28706091

Surrogate inaccuracy in predicting older adults' desire for life-sustaining interventions in the event of decisional incapacity: is it due in part to erroneous quality-of-life assessments?

PubMed

Bravo, Gina; Sene, Modou; Arcand, Marcel

2017-07-01

Family members are often called upon to make decisions for an incapacitated relative. Yet they have difficulty predicting a loved one's desire to receive treatments in hypothetical situations. We tested the hypothesis that this difficulty could in part be explained by discrepant quality-of-life assessments. The data come from 235 community-dwelling adults aged 70 years and over who rated their quality of life and desire for specified interventions in four health states (current state, mild to moderate stroke, incurable brain cancer, and severe dementia). All ratings were made on Likert-type scales. Using identical rating scales, a surrogate chosen by the older adult was asked to predict the latter's responses. Linear mixed models were fitted to determine whether differences in quality-of-life ratings between the older adult and surrogate were associated with surrogates' inaccuracy in predicting desire for treatment. The difference in quality-of-life ratings was a significant predictor of prediction inaccuracy for the three hypothetical health states (p < 0.01) and nearly significant for the current health state (p = 0.077). All regression coefficients were negative, implying that the more the surrogate overestimated quality of life compared to the older adult, the more he or she overestimated the older adult's desire to be treated. Discrepant quality-of-life ratings are associated with surrogates' difficulty in predicting desire for life-sustaining interventions in hypothetical situations. This finding underscores the importance of discussing anticipated quality of life in states of cognitive decline, to better prepare family members for making difficult decisions for their loved ones. ISRCTN89993391.

Food availability affects onset of reproduction in a long-lived seabird.

PubMed

Vincenzi, Simone; Hatch, Scott; Mangel, Marc; Kitaysky, Alexander

2013-06-07

Life-history theory predicts that suboptimal developmental conditions may lead to faster life histories (younger age at recruitment and higher reproductive investment), but experimental testing of this prediction is still scarce in long-lived species. We report the effects of an experimental manipulation of food availability during early development and at recruitment on the onset of reproduction and reproductive performance (productivity at first breeding) in a long-lived seabird, the black-legged kittiwake Rissa tridactyla, breeding on Middleton Island, Alaska. Birds were born and raised in nests with supplemented food ('fed') or unsupplemented control nests ('unfed'), and later recruited into either fed or unfed nests. Fed chicks grew faster than unfed chicks, and males grew faster than females. Birds were more likely to reproduce at younger ages when recruiting into fed nests. Faster growth during development tended to increase age at recruitment in all individuals. Social rank of individuals also affected age at recruitment: B-chicks recruited earlier than A-chicks and singletons recruited later than A- and B-chicks. Productivity increased with the age at recruitment and growth rate as chick, but much of the variability remained unexplained. We conclude that results of this study at least partially support predictions of life-history theory: younger age at first breeding for kittiwakes that experienced suboptimal natal conditions, as well as greater productivity of early recruiting kittiwakes that grew in control nests compared with those that grew in food-supplemented nests.

High temperature fatigue behavior of Haynes 188

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halford, Gary R.; Saltsman, James F.; Kalluri, Sreeramesh

1988-01-01

The high temperature, creep-fatigue behavior of Haynes 188 was investigated as an element in a broader thermomechanical fatigue life prediction model development program at the NASA-Lewis. The models are still in the development stage, but the data that were generated possess intrinsic value on their own. Results generated to date is reported. Data were generated to characterize isothermal low cycle fatigue resistance at temperatures of 316, 704, and 927 C with cyclic failure lives ranging from 10 to more than 20,000. These results follow trends that would be predicted from a knowledge of tensile properties, i.e., as the tensile ductility varies with temperature, so varies the cyclic inelastic straining capacity. Likewise, as the tensile strength decreases, so does the high cyclic fatigue resistance. A few two-minute hold-time cycles at peak compressive strain were included in tests at 760 C. These results were obtained in support of a redesign effort for the Orbital Maneuverable System engine. No detrimental effects on cyclic life were noted despite the added exposure time for creep and oxidation. Finally, a series of simulated thermal fatigue tests, referred to as bithermal fatigue tests, were conducted using 316 C as the minimum and 760 C as the maximum temperature. Only out-of-phase bithermal tests were conducted to date. These test results are intended for use as input to a more general thermomechanical fatigue life prediction model based on the concepts of the total strain version of Strainrange Partitioning.

Culture, personality, and subjective well-being: integrating process models of life satisfaction.

PubMed

Schimmack, Ulrich; Radhakrishnan, Phanikiran; Oishi, Shigehiro; Dzokoto, Vivian; Ahadi, Stephan

2002-04-01

The authors examined the interplay of personality and cultural factors in the prediction of the affective (hedonic balance) and the cognitive (life satisfaction) components of subjective well-being (SWB). They predicted that the influence of personality on life satisfaction is mediated by hedonic balance and that the relation between hedonic balance and life satisfaction is moderated by culture. As a consequence, they predicted that the influence of personality on life satisfaction is also moderated by culture. Participants from 2 individualistic cultures (United States, Germany) and 3 collectivistic cultures (Japan, Mexico, Ghana) completed measures of Extraversion, Neuroticism, hedonic balance, and life satisfaction. As predicted, Extraversion and Neuroticism influenced hedonic balance to the same degree in all cultures, and hedonic balance was a stronger predictor of life satisfaction in individualistic than in collectivistic cultures. The influence of Extraversion and Neuroticism on life satisfaction was largely mediated by hedonic balance. The results suggest that the influence of personality on the emotional component of SWB is pancultural, whereas the influence of personality on the cognitive component of SWB is moderated by culture.

Integrity of Ceramic Parts Predicted When Loads and Temperatures Fluctuate Over Time

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.

2004-01-01

Brittle materials are being used, and being considered for use, for a wide variety of high performance applications that operate in harsh environments, including static and rotating turbine parts for unmanned aerial vehicles, auxiliary power units, and distributed power generation. Other applications include thermal protection systems, dental prosthetics, fuel cells, oxygen transport membranes, radomes, and microelectromechanical systems (MEMS). In order for these high-technology ceramics to be used successfully for structural applications that push the envelope of materials capabilities, design engineers must consider that brittle materials are designed and analyzed differently than metallic materials. Unlike ductile metals, brittle materials display a stochastic strength response because of the combination of low fracture toughness and the random nature of the size, orientation, and distribution of inherent microscopic flaws. This plus the fact that the strength of a component under load may degrade over time because of slow crack growth means that a probabilistic-based life-prediction methodology must be used when the tradeoffs of failure probability, performance, and useful life are being optimized. The CARES/Life code (which was developed at the NASA Glenn Research Center) predicts the probability of ceramic components failing from spontaneous catastrophic rupture when these components are subjected to multiaxial loading and slow crack growth conditions. Enhancements to CARES/Life now allow for the component survival probability to be calculated when loading and temperature vary over time.

Predicting the Reliability of Brittle Material Structures Subjected to Transient Proof Test and Service Loading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Jadaan, Osama M.; Palfi, Tamas; Baker, Eric H.

Brittle materials today are being used, or considered, for a wide variety of high tech applications that operate in harsh environments, including static and rotating turbine parts, thermal protection systems, dental prosthetics, fuel cells, oxygen transport membranes, radomes, and MEMS. Designing brittle material components to sustain repeated load without fracturing while using the minimum amount of material requires the use of a probabilistic design methodology. The NASA CARES/Life 1 (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structure/Life) code provides a general-purpose analysis tool that predicts the probability of failure of a ceramic component as a function of its time in service. This capability includes predicting the time-dependent failure probability of ceramic components against catastrophic rupture when subjected to transient thermomechanical loads (including cyclic loads). The developed methodology allows for changes in material response that can occur with temperature or time (i.e. changing fatigue and Weibull parameters with temperature or time). For this article an overview of the transient reliability methodology and how this methodology is extended to account for proof testing is described. The CARES/Life code has been modified to have the ability to interface with commercially available finite element analysis (FEA) codes executed for transient load histories. Examples are provided to demonstrate the features of the methodology as implemented in the CARES/Life program.

Life history comparison of two terrestrial isopods in relation to habitat specialization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quadros, Aline Ferreira; Caubet, Yves; Araujo, Paula Beatriz

2009-03-01

For many animal species, there is a relationship between life history strategies, as predicted by the r- K-selection theory, degree of habitat specialization and response to habitat alteration and loss. Here we compare two sympatric woodlice species with contrasting patterns of habitat use and geographical distribution. We predict that Atlantoscia floridana (Philosciidae), considered a habitat generalist, would exhibit the r-selected traits, whereas Balloniscus glaber (Balloniscidae), considered a habitat specialist, should have the K-selected traits. We analyzed several life history traits as well as life and fecundity tables using 715 and 842 females of A. floridana and B. glaber, respectively, from populations living in syntopy in southern Brazil. As predicted, most evaluated traits allow A. floridana to be considered an r-strategist and B. glaber a K-strategist: A. floridana showed a shorter lifetime, faster development, earlier reproduction, a smaller parental investment, higher net reproductive rate ( R0), a higher growth rate ( r) and a shorter generation time ( T) in comparison to B. glaber. A. floridana seems to be a successful colonizer with a high reproductive output. These characteristics explain its local abundance, commonness and wide geographical distribution. On the contrary, B. glaber has a restricted geographical distribution that is mainly associated with Atlantic forest fragments, a biome threatened by deforestation and replacement by monocultures. Its narrow distribution combined with the K-selected traits may confer to this species an increased extinction risk.

Costs and benefits linked to developments in cognitive control.

PubMed

Blackwell, Katharine A; Munakata, Yuko

2014-03-01

Developing cognitive control over one's thoughts, emotions, and actions is a fundamental process that predicts important life outcomes. Such control begins in infancy, and shifts during development from a predominantly reactive form (e.g. retrieving task-relevant information when needed) to an increasingly proactive form (e.g. maintaining task-relevant information in anticipation of needing it). While such developments are generally viewed as adaptive, cognitive abilities can also involve trade-offs, such that the benefits of developing increasingly proactive control may come with associated costs. In two experiments, we test for such cognitive trade-offs in children who are transitioning to proactive control. We find that proactive control predicts expected benefits in children's working memory, but is also associated with predicted costs in disproportionately slowing children under conditions of distraction. These findings highlight unique advantages and disadvantages of proactive and reactive control, and suggest caution in attempting to alter their balance during development. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Long-term medical costs and life expectancy of acute myeloid leukemia: a probabilistic decision model.

PubMed

Wang, Han-I; Aas, Eline; Howell, Debra; Roman, Eve; Patmore, Russell; Jack, Andrew; Smith, Alexandra

2014-03-01

Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) can be diagnosed at any age and treatment, which can be given with supportive and/or curative intent, is considered expensive compared with that for other cancers. Despite this, no long-term predictive models have been developed for AML, mainly because of the complexities associated with this disease. The objective of the current study was to develop a model (based on a UK cohort) to predict cost and life expectancy at a population level. The model developed in this study combined a decision tree with several Markov models to reflect the complexity of the prognostic factors and treatments of AML. The model was simulated with a cycle length of 1 month for a time period of 5 years and further simulated until age 100 years or death. Results were compared for two age groups and five different initial treatment intents and responses. Transition probabilities, life expectancies, and costs were derived from a UK population-based specialist registry-the Haematological Malignancy Research Network (www.hmrn.org). Overall, expected 5-year medical costs and life expectancy ranged from £8,170 to £81,636 and 3.03 to 34.74 months, respectively. The economic and health outcomes varied with initial treatment intent, age at diagnosis, trial participation, and study time horizon. The model was validated by using face, internal, and external validation methods. The results show that the model captured more than 90% of the empirical costs, and it demonstrated good fit with the empirical overall survival. Costs and life expectancy of AML varied with patient characteristics and initial treatment intent. The robust AML model developed in this study could be used to evaluate new diagnostic tools/treatments, as well as enable policy makers to make informed decisions. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Rough Set Theory based prognostication of life expectancy for terminally ill patients.

PubMed

Gil-Herrera, Eleazar; Yalcin, Ali; Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Barnes, Laura E; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

2011-01-01

We present a novel knowledge discovery methodology that relies on Rough Set Theory to predict the life expectancy of terminally ill patients in an effort to improve the hospice referral process. Life expectancy prognostication is particularly valuable for terminally ill patients since it enables them and their families to initiate end-of-life discussions and choose the most desired management strategy for the remainder of their lives. We utilize retrospective data from 9105 patients to demonstrate the design and implementation details of a series of classifiers developed to identify potential hospice candidates. Preliminary results confirm the efficacy of the proposed methodology. We envision our work as a part of a comprehensive decision support system designed to assist terminally ill patients in making end-of-life care decisions.

Modeling Individual Patient Preferences for Colorectal Cancer Screening Based on Their Tolerance for Complications Risk.

PubMed

Taksler, Glen B; Perzynski, Adam T; Kattan, Michael W

2017-04-01

Recommendations for colorectal cancer screening encourage patients to choose among various screening methods based on individual preferences for benefits, risks, screening frequency, and discomfort. We devised a model to illustrate how individuals with varying tolerance for screening complications risk might decide on their preferred screening strategy. We developed a discrete-time Markov mathematical model that allowed hypothetical individuals to maximize expected lifetime utility by selecting screening method, start age, stop age, and frequency. Individuals could choose from stool-based testing every 1 to 3 years, flexible sigmoidoscopy every 1 to 20 years with annual stool-based testing, colonoscopy every 1 to 20 years, or no screening. We compared the life expectancy gained from the chosen strategy with the life expectancy available from a benchmark strategy of decennial colonoscopy. For an individual at average risk of colorectal cancer who was risk neutral with respect to screening complications (and therefore was willing to undergo screening if it would actuarially increase life expectancy), the model predicted that he or she would choose colonoscopy every 10 years, from age 53 to 73 years, consistent with national guidelines. For a similar individual who was moderately averse to screening complications risk (and therefore required a greater increase in life expectancy to accept potential risks of colonoscopy), the model predicted that he or she would prefer flexible sigmoidoscopy every 12 years with annual stool-based testing, with 93% of the life expectancy benefit of decennial colonoscopy. For an individual with higher risk aversion, the model predicted that he or she would prefer 2 lifetime flexible sigmoidoscopies, 20 years apart, with 70% of the life expectancy benefit of decennial colonoscopy. Mathematical models may formalize how individuals with different risk attitudes choose between various guideline-recommended colorectal cancer screening strategies.

Mariner Jupiter/Saturn LCSSE thruster/valve assembly and injection propulsion unit rocket engine assemblies: 0.2-lbf T/VA development and margin limit test report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clark, E. C.

1975-01-01

Thruster valve assemblies (T/VA's) were subjected to the development test program for the combined JPL Low-Cost Standardized Spacecraft Equipment (LCSSE) and Mariner Jupiter/Saturn '77 spacecraft (MJS) programs. The development test program was designed to achieve the following program goals: (1) demonstrate T/VA design compliance with JPL Specifications, (2) to conduct a complete performance Cf map of the T/VA over the full operating range of environment, (3) demonstrate T/VA life capability and characteristics of life margin for steady-state limit cycle and momentum wheel desaturation duty cycles, (4) verification of structural design capability, and (5) generate a computerized performance model capable of predicting T/VA operation over pressures ranging from 420 to 70 psia, propellant temperatures ranging from 140 F to 40 F, pulse widths of 0.008 to steady-state operation with unlimited duty cycle capability, and finally predict the transient performance associated with reactor heatup during any given duty cycle, start temperature, feed pressure, and propellant temperature conditions.

Do positive or negative stressful events predict the development of new brain lesions in people with Multiple Sclerosis?

PubMed Central

Burns, Michelle Nicole; Nawacki, Ewa; Kwasny, Mary J.; Pelletier, Daniel; Mohr, David C.

2014-01-01

Background Stressful life events have long been suspected to contribute to multiple sclerosis (MS) disease activity. The few studies examining the relationship between stressful events and neuroimaging markers have been small and inconsistent. This study examined whether different types of stressful events and perceived stress could predict development of brain lesions. Methods This was a secondary analysis of 121 patients with MS followed for 48 weeks during a randomized controlled trial comparing Stress Management Therapy for MS to a waitlist control. Patients underwent MRI’s every 8 weeks. Monthly, patients completed an interview measure assessing stressful life events, and self-report measures of perceived stress, anxiety, and depressive symptoms, which were used to predict the presence of gadolinium enhancing (Gd+) and T2 lesions on MRI’s 29–62 days later. Participants classified stressful events as positive or negative. Negative events were considered “major” if they involved physical threat or threat to the patient’s family structure, and “moderate” otherwise. Results Positive stressful events predicted decreased risk for subsequent Gd+ lesions in the control group (OR=.53 for each additional positive stressful event, 95% CI=.30–.91) and less risk for new or enlarging T2 lesions regardless of group assignment (OR=.74, 95% CI=.55–.99). Across groups, major negative stressful events predicted Gd+ lesions (OR=1.77, 95% CI=1.18–2.64) and new or enlarging T2 lesions (OR=1.57, 95% CI=1.11–2.23), while moderate negative stressful events, perceived stress, anxiety, and depressive symptoms did not. Conclusions Major negative stressful events predict increased risk for Gd+ and T2 lesions, while positive stressful events predict decreased risk. PMID:23680407

Effect of Roller Profile on Cylindrical Roller Bearing Life Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Poplawski, Joseph V.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.; Peters, Steven M.

2000-01-01

Four roller profiles used in cylindrical roller bearing design and manufacture were analyzed using both a closed form solution and finite element analysis (FEA) for stress and life. The roller profiles analyzed were flat, tapered end, aerospace, and fully crowned loaded against a flat raceway. Four rolling-element bearing life models were chosen for this analysis and compared. These were those of Weibull, Lundberg and Palmgren, Ioannides and Harris, and Zaretsky. The flat roller profile without edge loading has the longest predicted life. However, edge loading can reduce life by as much as 98 percent. The end tapered profile produced the highest lives but not significantly different than the aerospace profile. The fully crowned profile produces the lowest lives. The resultant predicted life at each stress condition not only depends on the life equation used but also on the Weibull slope assumed. For Weibull slopes of 1.5 and 2, both Lundberg-Palmgren and Iaonnides-Harris equations predict lower lives than the ANSI/ABMAJISO standards. Based upon the Hertz stresses for line contact, the accepted load-life exponent of 10/3 results in a maximum Hertz stress-life exponent equal to 6.6. This value is inconsistent with that experienced in the field.

Prediction of Neonatal Hyperbilirubinemia Using 1st Day Serum Bilirubin Levels.

PubMed

Spoorthi, S M; Dandinavar, Siddappa F; Ratageri, Vinod H; Wari, Prakash K

2018-02-15

The study was conducted on Full term neonates with birth weight > 2.5 kg born in KIMS, Hubballi with an objective to determine the first day Total Serum Bilirubin (TSB) value so as to predict subsequent development of significant hyperbilirubinemia in term neonates. All enrolled neonates were sampled for TSB and blood group on Day 1 at 20 ± 4 h and then followed up clinically by Kramer's rule and when the clinical jaundice by Kramer's rule was >10 mg/dl, TSB levels were repeated. A total of 180 newborns were enrolled for the study and 165 babies completed the study. Out of these, 17(10.3%) babies had significant hyperbilirubinemia by day 5 of life. Using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Curve, a cut off TSB value of 6.15 mg/dl was determined with sensitivity of 82.4%, specificity of 81.8%, positive predictive value of 32.8%, negative predictive value 97.6%. In term neonates, the first day total bilirubin level at 20 ± 4 h of life <6.15 predicts the low risk of subsequent significant hyperbilirubinemia with high probability.

Life history trade-off moderates model predictions of diversity loss from climate change

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Climate change can trigger species range shifts, local extinctions and changes in diversity. Species interactions and dispersal capacity are important mediators of community responses to climate change. The interaction between multispecies competition and variation in dispersal capacity has recently been shown to exacerbate the effects of climate change on diversity and to increase predictions of extinction risk dramatically. Dispersal capacity, however, is part of a species’ overall ecological strategy and are likely to trade off with other aspects of its life history that influence population growth and persistence. In plants, a well-known example is the trade-off between seed mass and seed number. The presence of such a trade-off might buffer the diversity loss predicted by models with random but neutral (i.e. not impacting fitness otherwise) differences in dispersal capacity. Using a trait-based metacommunity model along a warming climatic gradient the effect of three different dispersal scenarios on model predictions of diversity change were compared. Adding random variation in species dispersal capacity caused extinctions by the introduction of strong fitness differences due an inherent property of the dispersal kernel. Simulations including a fitness-equalising trade-off based on empirical relationships between seed mass (here affecting dispersal distance, establishment probability, and seedling biomass) and seed number (fecundity) maintained higher initial species diversity and predicted lower extinction risk and diversity loss during climate change than simulations with variable dispersal capacity. Large seeded species persisted during climate change, but developed lags behind their climate niche that may cause extinction debts. Small seeded species were more extinction-prone during climate change but tracked their niches through dispersal and colonisation, despite competitive resistance from residents. Life history trade-offs involved in coexistence mechanisms may increase community resilience to future climate change and are useful guides for model development. PMID:28520770

Predictive Modeling of Rice Yellow Stem Borer Population Dynamics under Climate Change Scenarios in Indramayu

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nurhayati, E.; Koesmaryono, Y.; Impron

2017-03-01

Rice Yellow Stem Borer (YSB) is one of the major insect pests in rice plants that has high attack intensity in rice production center areas, especially in West Java. This pest is consider as holometabola insects that causes rice damage in the vegetative phase (deadheart) as well as generative phase (whitehead). Climatic factor is one of the environmental factors influence the pattern of dynamics population. The purpose of this study was to develop a predictive modeling of YSB pest dynamics population under climate change scenarios (2016-2035 period) using Dymex Model in Indramayu area, West Java. YSB modeling required two main components, namely climate parameters and YSB development lower threshold of temperature (To) to describe YSB life cycle in every phase. Calibration and validation test of models showed the coefficient of determination (R2) between the predicted results and observations of the study area were 0.74 and 0.88 respectively, which was able to illustrate the development, mortality, transfer of individuals from one stage to the next life also fecundity and YSB reproduction. On baseline climate condition, there was a tendency of population abundance peak (outbreak) occured when a change of rainfall intensity in the rainy season transition to dry season or the opposite conditions was happen. In both of application of climate change scenarios, the model outputs were generated well and able to predict the pattern of YSB population dynamics with a the increasing trend of specific population numbers, generation numbers per season and also shifting pattern of populations abundance peak in the future climatic conditions. These results can be adopted as a tool to predict outbreak and to give early warning to control YSB pest more effectively.

Predictive modeling of surimi cake shelf life at different storage temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yatong; Hou, Yanhua; Wang, Quanfu; Cui, Bingqing; Zhang, Xiangyu; Li, Xuepeng; Li, Yujin; Liu, Yuanping

2017-04-01

The Arrhenius model of the shelf life prediction which based on the TBARS index was established in this study. The results showed that the significant changed of AV, POV, COV and TBARS with temperature increased, and the reaction rate constants k was obtained by the first order reaction kinetics model. Then the secondary model fitting was based on the Arrhenius equation. There was the optimal fitting accuracy of TBARS in the first and the secondary model fitting (R2≥0.95). The verification test indicated that the relative error between the shelf life model prediction value and actual value was within ±10%, suggesting the model could predict the shelf life of surimi cake.

Crack initiation modeling of a directionally-solidified nickel-base superalloy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordon, Ali Page

Combustion gas turbine components designed for application in electric power generation equipment are subject to periodic replacement as a result of cracking, damage, and mechanical property degeneration that render them unsafe for continued operation. In view of the significant costs associated with inspecting, servicing, and replacing damaged components, there has been much interest in developing models that not only predict service life, but also estimate the evolved microstructural state of the material. This thesis explains manifestations of microstructural damage mechanisms that facilitate fatigue crack nucleation in a newly-developed directionally-solidified (DS) Ni-base superalloy components exposed to elevated temperatures and high stresses. In this study, models were developed and validated for damage and life prediction using DS GTD-111 as the subject material. This material, proprietary to General Electric Energy, has a chemical composition and grain structure designed to withstand creep damage occurring in the first and second stage blades of gas-powered turbines. The service conditions in these components, which generally exceed 600°C, facilitate the onset of one or more damage mechanisms related to fatigue, creep, or environment. The study was divided into an empirical phase, which consisted of experimentally simulating service conditions in fatigue specimens, and a modeling phase, which entailed numerically simulating the stress-strain response of the material. Experiments have been carried out to simulate a variety of thermal, mechanical, and environmental operating conditions endured by longitudinally (L) and transversely (T) oriented DS GTD-111. Both in-phase and out-of-phase thermo-mechanical fatigue tests were conducted. In some cases, tests in extreme environments/temperatures were needed to isolate one or at most two of the mechanisms causing damage. Microstructural examinations were carried out via SEM and optical microscopy. A continuum crystal plasticity model was used to simulate the material behavior in the L and T orientations. The constitutive model was implemented in ABAQUS and a parameter estimation scheme was developed to obtain the material constants. A physically-based model was developed for correlating crack initiation life based on the experimental life data and predictions are made using the crack initiation model. Assuming a unique relationship between the damage fraction and cycle fraction with respect to cycles to crack initiation for each damage mode, the total crack initiation life has been represented in terms of the individual damage components (fatigue, creep-fatigue, creep, and oxidation-fatigue) observed at the end state of crack initiation.

Fatigue life prediction of liquid rocket engine combustor with subscale test verification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sung, In-Kyung

Reusable rocket systems such as the Space Shuttle introduced a new era in propulsion system design for economic feasibility. Practical reusable systems require an order of magnitude increase in life. To achieve this improved methods are needed to assess failure mechanisms and to predict life cycles of rocket combustor. A general goal of the research was to demonstrate the use of subscale rocket combustor prototype in a cost-effective test program. Life limiting factors and metal behaviors under repeated loads were surveyed and reviewed. The life prediction theories are presented, with an emphasis on studies that used subscale test hardware for model validation. From this review, low cycle fatigue (LCF) and creep-fatigue interaction (ratcheting) were identified as the main life limiting factors of the combustor. Several life prediction methods such as conventional and advanced viscoplastic models were used to predict life cycle due to low cycle thermal stress, transient effects, and creep rupture damage. Creep-fatigue interaction and cyclic hardening were also investigated. A prediction method based on 2D beam theory was modified using 3D plate deformation theory to provide an extended prediction method. For experimental validation two small scale annular plug nozzle thrusters were designed, built and tested. The test article was composed of a water-cooled liner, plug annular nozzle and 200 psia precombustor that used decomposed hydrogen peroxide as the oxidizer and JP-8 as the fuel. The first combustor was tested cyclically at the Advanced Propellants and Combustion Laboratory at Purdue University. Testing was stopped after 140 cycles due to an unpredicted failure mechanism due to an increasing hot spot in the location where failure was predicted. A second combustor was designed to avoid the previous failure, however, it was over pressurized and deformed beyond repair during cold-flow test. The test results are discussed and compared to the analytical and numerical predictions. A detailed comparison was not performed, however, due to the lack of test data resulting from a failure of the test article. Some theoretical and experimental aspects such as fin effect and round corner were found to reduce the discrepancy between prediction and test results.

Are the Performance Based Logistics Prophets Using Science or Alchemy to Create Life-Cycle Affordability? Using Theory to Predict the Efficacy of Performance Based Logistics

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-10-01

Based Logistics Prophets Using Science or Alchemy to Create Life-Cycle Affordability? Using Theory to Predict the Efficacy of Performance Based...Using Science or Alchemy to Create Life-Cycle Affordability? Using Theory to Predict the Efficacy of Performance Based Logistics 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b...Are the PBL Prophets Using Science or Alchemy to Create Life Cycle Affordability? 328Defense ARJ, October 2013, Vol. 20 No. 3 : 325–348 Defense

Do we become a different person when hitting the road? Personality development of sojourners.

PubMed

Zimmermann, Julia; Neyer, Franz J

2013-09-01

International mobility is a prevalent life event that particularly affects university students. The aim of this longitudinal study was twofold: First, we examined the impact of international mobility on personality (Big Five) change, separating self-selection effects from socialization processes. Second, we extended prior analyses on the association between life events and personality development by investigating the mechanisms that account for socialization processes. In particular, we assessed whether individual differences in the fluctuation of support relationships serve as an explanatory link. We used a prospective control group design with 3 measurement occasions. A sample of university students, containing both short-term (i.e., 1 semester) and long-term (i.e., 1 academic year) sojourners (N = 527) along with control students (N = 607), was tracked over the course of an academic year. Multivariate latent models revealed 3 main findings: First, initial (pre-departure) levels of Extraversion and Conscientiousness predicted short-term sojourning, and Extraversion and Openness predicted long-term sojourning. Second, both forms of sojourning were associated with increases in Openness and Agreeableness and a decrease in Neuroticism above and beyond the observed self-selection. Third, the acquisition of new international support relationships largely accounted for the sojourn effects on personality change. These findings help to fill the missing link between life events and personality development by establishing social relationship fluctuation as an important mediating mechanism.

Auditory Processing in Infancy: Do Early Abnormalities Predict Disorders of Language and Cognitive Development?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guzzetta, Francesco; Conti, Guido; Mercuri, Eugenio

2011-01-01

Increasing attention has been devoted to the maturation of sensory processing in the first year of life. While the development of cortical visual function has been thoroughly studied, much less information is available on auditory processing and its early disorders. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of the assessment techniques for…

Development of test apparatus for service life prediction of sealant formulations and evaluation of data from 18 months of outdoor weathering

Treesearch

R. Sam Williams; Steve Lacher; Corey Halpin; Christopher White

2004-01-01

The focus of this report is to describe the results from seven different sealant formulations exposed for up to 18 months. The methods used to evaluate the data are described, the difficulties encountered in analyzing the data are discussed, and new developments in the test apparatus are presented.

Development of Advanced Life Prediction Tools for Elastic-Plastic Fatigue Crack Growth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregg, Wayne; McGill, Preston; Swanson, Greg; Wells, Doug; Throckmorton, D. A. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The objective of this viewgraph presentation is to develop a systematic approach to improving the fracture control process, including analytical tools, standards, guidelines, and awareness. Analytical tools specifically for elastic-plastic fracture analysis is a regime that is currently empirical for the Space Shuttle External Tank (ET) and is handled by simulated service testing of pre-cracked panels.

Nascent Entrepreneurship and the Developing Individual: Early Entrepreneurial Competence in Adolescence and Venture Creation Success during the Career

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Obschonka, Martin; Silbereisen, Rainer K.; Schmitt-Rodermund, Eva; Stuetzer, Michael

2011-01-01

What predicts a person's venture creation success over the course of the career, such as making progress in the venture creation process and multiple successful venture creations? Applying a life span approach of human development, this study examined the effect of early entrepreneurial competence in adolescence, which was gathered retrospectively…

A radiographic study of permanent molar development in wild Virunga mountain gorillas of known chronological age from Rwanda.

PubMed

Kralick, Alexandra E; Loring Burgess, M; Glowacka, Halszka; Arbenz-Smith, Keely; McGrath, Kate; Ruff, Christopher B; Chan, King Chong; Cranfield, Michael R; Stoinski, Tara S; Bromage, Timothy G; Mudakikwa, Antoine; McFarlin, Shannon C

2017-05-01

While dental development is important to life history investigations, data from wild known-aged great apes are scarce. We report on the first radiographic examination of dental development in wild Virunga mountain gorillas, using known-age skeletal samples recovered in Rwanda. In 43 individuals (0.0-14.94 years), we collected radiographs of mandibular molars, and where possible, cone beam CT scans. Molar crown and root calcification status was assessed using two established staging systems, and age prediction equations generated using polynomial regression. Results were compared to available data from known-age captive and wild chimpanzees. Mountain gorillas generally fell within reported captive chimpanzee distributions or exceeded them, exhibiting older ages at equivalent radiographic stages of development. Differences reflect delayed initiation and/or an extended duration of second molar crown development, and extended first and second molar root development, in mountain gorillas compared to captive chimpanzees. However, differences in the duration of molar root development were less evident compared to wild chimpanzees. Despite sample limitations, our findings extend the known range of variation in radiographic estimates of molar formation timing in great apes, and provide a new age prediction technique based on wild specimens. However, mountain gorillas do not appear accelerated in radiographic assessment of molar formation compared to chimpanzees, as they are for other life history traits. Future studies should aim to resolve the influence of species differences, wild versus captive environments, and/or sampling phenomena on patterns observed here, and more generally, how they relate to variation in tooth size, eruption timing, and developmental life history. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Temperament and Parenting during the First Year of Life Predict Future Child Conduct Problems

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lahey, Benjamin B.; Van Hulle, Carol A.; Keenan, Kate; Rathouz, Paul J.; D'Onofrio, Brian M.; Rodgers, Joseph Lee; Waldman, Irwin D.

2008-01-01

Predictive associations between parenting and temperament during the first year of life and child conduct problems were assessed longitudinally in 1,863 offspring of a representative sample of women. Maternal ratings of infant fussiness, activity level, predictability, and positive affect each independently predicted maternal ratings of conduct…

Considerations Regarding the Development of an Environmental Control and Life Support System for Lunar Surface Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bagdigian, Robert M.

2008-01-01

NASA is engaged in early architectural analyses and trade studies aimed at identifying requirements, predicting performance and resource needs, characterizing mission constraints and sensitivities, and guiding technology development planning needed to conduct a successful human exploration campaign of the lunar surface. Conceptual designs and resource estimates for environmental control and life support systems (ECLSS) within pressurized lunar surface habitats and rovers have been considered and compared in order to support these lunar campaign studies. This paper will summarize those concepts and some of the more noteworthy considerations that will likely remain as key drivers in the evolution of the lunar surface ECLSS architecture.

Managing the equipment service life in rendering engineering support to NPP operation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryasnyy, S. I.

2015-05-01

Apart from subjecting metal to nondestructive testing and determining its actual state, which are the traditional methods used for managing the service life of NPP equipment during its operation, other approaches closely linked with rendering engineering support to NPP operation have emerged in recent decades, which, however, have been covered in publications to a lesser extent. Service life management matters occupy the central place in the structure of engineering support measures. Application of the concept of repairing NPP equipment based on assessing its technical state and the risk of its failure makes it possible to achieve significantly smaller costs for maintenance and repairs and produce a larger amount of electricity due to shorter planned outages. Decreasing the occurrence probability of a process-related abnormality through its prediction is a further development of techniques for monitoring the technical state of equipment and systems. The proposed and implemented procedure for predicting the occurrence of process-related deviations from normal NPP operation opens the possibility to record in the online mode the trends in changes of process parameters that are likely to lead to malfunctions in equipment operation and to reduce the probability of power unit unloading when an abnormal technical state of equipment occurs and develops by recording changes in the state at an early stage and taking timely corrective measures. The article presents the structure of interconnections between the objectives and conditions of adjustment and commissioning tests, in which the management of equipment service life (saving and optimizing the service life) occupies the central place. Special attention is paid to differences in resource saving and optimization measures.

Evidence for interplay between genes and maternal stress in utero: monoamine oxidase A polymorphism moderates effects of life events during pregnancy on infant negative emotionality at 5 weeks.

PubMed

Hill, J; Breen, G; Quinn, J; Tibu, F; Sharp, H; Pickles, A

2013-06-01

The low activity variant of the monoamine oxidase A (MAOA) functional promoter polymorphism, MAOA-LPR, in interaction with adverse environments (G × E) is associated with child and adult antisocial behaviour disorders. MAOA is expressed during foetal development so in utero G × E may influence early neurodevelopment. We tested the hypothesis that MAOA G × E during pregnancy predicts infant negative emotionality soon after birth. In an epidemiological longitudinal study starting in pregnancy, using a two stage stratified design, we ascertained MAOA-LPR status (low vs. high activity variants) from the saliva of 209 infants (104 boys and 105 girls), and examined predictions to observed infant negative emotionality at 5 weeks post-partum from life events during pregnancy. In analyses weighted to provide estimates for the general population, and including possible confounders for life events, there was an MAOA status by life events interaction (P = 0.017). There was also an interaction between MAOA status and neighbourhood deprivation (P = 0.028). Both interactions arose from a greater effect of increasing life events on negative emotionality in the MAOA-LPR low activity, compared with MAOA-LPR high activity infants. The study provides the first evidence of moderation by MAOA-LPR of the effect of the social environment in pregnancy on negative emotionality in infancy, an early risk for the development of child and adult antisocial behaviour disorders. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd and International Behavioural and Neural Genetics Society.

Cognitive and affective trait and state factors influencing the long-term symptom course in remitted depressed patients.

PubMed

Timm, Christina; Ubl, Bettina; Zamoscik, Vera; Ebner-Priemer, Ulrich; Reinhard, Iris; Huffziger, Silke; Kirsch, Peter; Kuehner, Christine

2017-01-01

Major depressive disorder (MDD) is characterized by a high risk for relapses and chronic developments. Clinical characteristics such as residual symptoms have been shown to negatively affect the long-term course of MDD. However, it is unclear so far how trait repetitive negative thinking (RNT) as well as cognitive and affective momentary states, the latter experienced during daily-life, affect the long-term course of MDD. We followed up 57 remitted depressed (rMDD) individuals six (T2) and 36 (T3) months after baseline. Clinical outcomes were time to relapse, time spent with significant symptoms as a marker of chronicity, and levels of depressive symptoms at T2 and T3. Predictors assessed at baseline included residual symptoms and trait RNT. Furthermore, momentary daily life affect and momentary rumination, and their variation over the day were assessed at baseline using ambulatory assessment (AA). In multiple models, residual symptoms and instability of daily-life affect at baseline independently predicted a faster time to relapse, while chronicity was significantly predicted by trait RNT. Multilevel models revealed that depressive symptom levels during follow-up were predicted by baseline residual symptom levels and by instability of daily-life rumination. Both instability features were linked to a higher number of anamnestic MDD episodes. Our findings indicate that trait RNT, but also affective and cognitive processes during daily life impact the longer-term course of MDD. Future longitudinal research on the role of respective AA-phenotypes as potential transdiagnostic course-modifiers is warranted.

Simulation of Crack Propagation in Engine Rotating Components under Variable Amplitude Loading

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bonacuse, P. J.; Ghosn, L. J.; Telesman, J.; Calomino, A. M.; Kantzos, P.

1998-01-01

The crack propagation life of tested specimens has been repeatedly shown to strongly depend on the loading history. Overloads and extended stress holds at temperature can either retard or accelerate the crack growth rate. Therefore, to accurately predict the crack propagation life of an actual component, it is essential to approximate the true loading history. In military rotorcraft engine applications, the loading profile (stress amplitudes, temperature, and number of excursions) can vary significantly depending on the type of mission flown. To accurately assess the durability of a fleet of engines, the crack propagation life distribution of a specific component should account for the variability in the missions performed (proportion of missions flown and sequence). In this report, analytical and experimental studies are described that calibrate/validate the crack propagation prediction capability ]or a disk alloy under variable amplitude loading. A crack closure based model was adopted to analytically predict the load interaction effects. Furthermore, a methodology has been developed to realistically simulate the actual mission mix loading on a fleet of engines over their lifetime. A sequence of missions is randomly selected and the number of repeats of each mission in the sequence is determined assuming a Poisson distributed random variable with a given mean occurrence rate. Multiple realizations of random mission histories are generated in this manner and are used to produce stress, temperature, and time points for fracture mechanics calculations. The result is a cumulative distribution of crack propagation lives for a given, life limiting, component location. This information can be used to determine a safe retirement life or inspection interval for the given location.

Multispectral Image Processing for Plants

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miles, Gaines E.

1991-01-01

The development of a machine vision system to monitor plant growth and health is one of three essential steps towards establishing an intelligent system capable of accurately assessing the state of a controlled ecological life support system for long-term space travel. Besides a network of sensors, simulators are needed to predict plant features, and artificial intelligence algorithms are needed to determine the state of a plant based life support system. Multispectral machine vision and image processing can be used to sense plant features, including health and nutritional status.

Toward improved durability in advanced aircraft engine hot sections

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sokolowski, Daniel E. (Editor)

1989-01-01

The conference on durability improvement methods for advanced aircraft gas turbine hot-section components discussed NASA's Hot Section Technology (HOST) project, advanced high-temperature instrumentation for hot-section research, the development and application of combustor aerothermal models, and the evaluation of a data base and numerical model for turbine heat transfer. Also discussed are structural analysis methods for gas turbine hot section components, fatigue life-prediction modeling for turbine hot section materials, and the service life modeling of thermal barrier coatings for aircraft gas turbine engines.

Reference equation for prediction of a total distance during six-minute walk test using Indonesian anthropometrics.

PubMed

Nusdwinuringtyas, Nury; Widjajalaksmi; Yunus, Faisal; Alwi, Idrus

2014-04-01

to develop a reference equation for prediction of the total distance walk using Indonesian anthropometrics of sedentary healthy subjects. Subsequently, the prediction obtained was compared to those calculated by the Caucasian-based Enright prediction equation. the cross-sectional study was conducted among 123 healthy Indonesian adults with sedentary life style (58 male and 65 female subjects in an age range between 18 and 50 years). Heart rate was recorded using Polar with expectation in the sub-maximal zone (120-170 beats per minute). The subjects performed two six-minute walk tests, the first one on a 15-meter track according to the protocol developed by the investigator. The second walk was carried out on Biodex®gait trainer as gold standard. an average total distance of 547±54.24 m was found, not significantly different from the gold standard of 544.72±54.11 m (p>0.05). Multiple regression analysis was performed to develop the new equation. the reference equation for prediction of the total distance using Indonesian anthropometrics is more applicable in Indonesia.

Very High Cycle Fatigue Failure Analysis and Life Prediction of Cr-Ni-W Gear Steel Based on Crack Initiation and Growth Behaviors.

PubMed

Deng, Hailong; Li, Wei; Sakai, Tatsuo; Sun, Zhenduo

2015-12-02

The unexpected failures of structural materials in very high cycle fatigue (VHCF) regime have been a critical issue in modern engineering design. In this study, the VHCF property of a Cr-Ni-W gear steel was experimentally investigated under axial loading with the stress ratio of R = -1, and a life prediction model associated with crack initiation and growth behaviors was proposed. Results show that the Cr-Ni-W gear steel exhibits the constantly decreasing S-N property without traditional fatigue limit, and the fatigue strength corresponding to 10⁸ cycles is around 485 MPa. The inclusion-fine granular area (FGA)-fisheye induced failure becomes the main failure mechanism in the VHCF regime, and the local stress around the inclusion play a key role. By using the finite element analysis of representative volume element, the local stress tends to increase with the increase of elastic modulus difference between inclusion and matrix. The predicted crack initiation life occupies the majority of total fatigue life, while the predicted crack growth life is only accounts for a tiny fraction. In view of the good agreement between the predicted and experimental results, the proposed VHCF life prediction model involving crack initiation and growth can be acceptable for inclusion-FGA-fisheye induced failure.

Training of cosmonauts and astronauts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gurovskiy, N. N.; Link, M. M.

1975-01-01

The biomedical and preflight training of spacecraft crews is discussed based on a survey of scientific and technical literature in the U.S. and U.S.S.R. Experience gained from high velocity and high altitude aircraft flights, predictions of human reactions and theoretical models of human adaptation to the new environment of space, and actual spaceflight experience provided scientists and specialists with data from which the state of human health in space could be predicted and life support measures developed.

Life history theory predicts fish assemblage response to hydrologic regimes.

PubMed

Mims, Meryl C; Olden, Julian D

2012-01-01

The hydrologic regime is regarded as the primary driver of freshwater ecosystems, structuring the physical habitat template, providing connectivity, framing biotic interactions, and ultimately selecting for specific life histories of aquatic organisms. In the present study, we tested ecological theory predicting directional relationships between major dimensions of the flow regime and life history composition of fish assemblages in perennial free-flowing rivers throughout the continental United States. Using long-term discharge records and fish trait and survey data for 109 stream locations, we found that 11 out of 18 relationships (61%) tested between the three life history strategies (opportunistic, periodic, and equilibrium) and six hydrologic metrics (two each describing flow variability, predictability, and seasonality) were statistically significant (P < or = 0.05) according to quantile regression. Our results largely support a priori hypotheses of relationships between specific flow indices and relative prevalence of fish life history strategies, with 82% of all significant relationships observed supporting predictions from life history theory. Specifically, we found that (1) opportunistic strategists were positively related to measures of flow variability and negatively related to predictability and seasonality, (2) periodic strategists were positively related to high flow seasonality and negatively related to variability, and (3) the equilibrium strategists were negatively related to flow variability and positively related to predictability. Our study provides important empirical evidence illustrating the value of using life history theory to understand both the patterns and processes by which fish assemblage structure is shaped by adaptation to natural regimes of variability, predictability, and seasonality of critical flow events over broad biogeographic scales.

Strategies Used in Coping With a Cancer Diagnosis Predict Meaning in Life for Survivors

PubMed Central

Jim, Heather S.; Richardson, Susan A.; Golden-Kreutz, Deanna M.; Andersen, Barbara L.

2007-01-01

The search for meaning in life is part of the human experience. A negative life event may threaten perceptions about meaning in life, such as the benevolence of the world and one’s sense of harmony and peace. The authors examined the longitudinal relationship between women’s coping with a diagnosis of breast cancer and their self-reported meaning in life 2 years later. Multiple regression analyses revealed that positive strategies for coping predicted significant variance in the sense of meaning in life—feelings of inner peace, satisfaction with one’s current life and the future, and spirituality and faith—and the absence of such strategies predicted reports of loss of meaning and confusion (ps < .01). The importance and process of finding meaning in the context of a life stressor are discussed. PMID:17100503

Assessment of fatigue life of remanufactured impeller based on FEA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Lei; Cao, Huajun; Liu, Hailong; Zhang, Yubo

2016-09-01

Predicting the fatigue life of remanufactured centrifugal compressor impellers is a critical problem. In this paper, the S-N curve data were obtained by combining experimentation and theory deduction. The load spectrum was compiled by the rain-flow counting method based on the comprehensive consideration of the centrifugal force, residual stress, and aerodynamic loads in the repair region. A fatigue life simulation model was built, and fatigue life was analyzed based on the fatigue cumulative damage rule. Although incapable of providing a high-precision prediction, the simulation results were useful for the analysis of fatigue life impact factors and fatigue fracture areas. Results showed that the load amplitude greatly affected fatigue life, the impeller was protected from running at over-speed, and the predicted fatigue life was satisfied within the next service cycle safely at the rated speed.

Life stressors and social resources: an integrated assessment approach.

PubMed

Moos, R H; Fenn, C B; Billings, A G

1988-01-01

The Life Stressors and Social Resources Inventory (LISRES) is described. The inventory provides an integrated assessment of an individual's life context. It taps both relatively stable and new aspects of life stressors and social resources in eight domains: physical health, home/neighborhood, financial, work, spouse/partner, children, extended family, and friends. The indices were developed on data obtained at two points in time from groups of depressed patients, alcoholic patients, arthritic patients, and healthy adults. The indices are internally consistent, moderately intercorrelated, and relatively stable over time. In addition, they are predictably related to changes in respondents' functioning. Although more developmental work is needed, the LISRES has some potential clinical and research applications and may be helpful in examining the process of stress and coping.

[Prediction of life expectancy for prostate cancer patients based on the kinetic theory of aging of living systems].

PubMed

Viktorov, A A; Zharinov, G M; Neklasova, N Ju; Morozova, E E

2017-01-01

The article presents a methodical approach for prediction of life expectancy for people diagnosed with prostate cancer based on the kinetic theory of aging of living systems. The life expectancy is calculated by solving the differential equation for the rate of aging for three different stage of life - «normal» life, life with prostate cancer and life after combination therapy for prostate cancer. The mathematical model of aging for each stage of life has its own parameters identified by the statistical analysis of healthcare data from the Zharinov's databank and Rosstat CDR NES databank. The core of the methodical approach is the statistical correlation between growth rate of the prostate specific antigen level (PSA-level) or the PSA doubling time (PSA DT) before therapy, and lifespan: the higher the PSA DT is, the greater lifespan. The patients were grouped under the «fast PSA DT» and «slow PSA DT» categories. The satisfactory matching between calculations and experiment is shown. The prediction error of group life expectancy is due to the completeness and reliability of the main data source. A detailed monitoring of the basic health indicators throughout the each person life in each analyzed group is required. The absence of this particular information makes it impossible to predict the individual life expectancy.

Improving Computational Efficiency of Prediction in Model-Based Prognostics Using the Unscented Transform

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daigle, Matthew John; Goebel, Kai Frank

2010-01-01

Model-based prognostics captures system knowledge in the form of physics-based models of components, and how they fail, in order to obtain accurate predictions of end of life (EOL). EOL is predicted based on the estimated current state distribution of a component and expected profiles of future usage. In general, this requires simulations of the component using the underlying models. In this paper, we develop a simulation-based prediction methodology that achieves computational efficiency by performing only the minimal number of simulations needed in order to accurately approximate the mean and variance of the complete EOL distribution. This is performed through the use of the unscented transform, which predicts the means and covariances of a distribution passed through a nonlinear transformation. In this case, the EOL simulation acts as that nonlinear transformation. In this paper, we review the unscented transform, and describe how this concept is applied to efficient EOL prediction. As a case study, we develop a physics-based model of a solenoid valve, and perform simulation experiments to demonstrate improved computational efficiency without sacrificing prediction accuracy.

The onset of childhood amnesia in childhood: A prospective investigation of the course and determinants of forgetting of early-life events

PubMed Central

Bauer, Patricia J.; Larkina, Marina

2013-01-01

The present research was an examination of the onset of childhood amnesia and how it relates to maternal narrative style, an important determinant of autobiographical memory development. Children and their mothers discussed unique events when the children were 3 years of age. Different subgroups of children were tested for recall of the events at ages 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9 years. At the later session, they were interviewed by an experimenter about the events discussed 2 to 6 years previously with their mothers (early-life events). Children ages 5, 6, and 7 remembered 60% or more of the early-life events. In contrast, children ages 8 and 9 years remembered fewer than 40% of the early-life events. Overall maternal narrative style predicted children's contributions to mother-child conversations at age 3 years; it did not have cross-lagged relations to memory for early-life events at ages 5 to 9 years. Maternal deflections of the conversational turn to the child predicted the amount of information children later reported about the early-life events. The findings have implications for our understanding of the onset of childhood amnesia and the achievement of an adult-like distribution of memories in the school years. They highlight the importance of forgetting processes in explanations of the amnesia. PMID:24236647

Early life stress, MAOA, and gene-environment interactions predict behavioral disinhibition in children.

PubMed

Enoch, M-A; Steer, C D; Newman, T K; Gibson, N; Goldman, D

2010-02-01

Several, but not all, studies have shown that the monoamine oxidase A functional promoter polymorphism (MAOA-LPR) interacts with childhood adversity to predict adolescent and adult antisocial behavior. However, it is not known whether MAOA-LPR interacts with early life (pre-birth-3 years) stressors to influence behavior in prepubertal children. The Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, UK, is a community-representative cohort study of children followed from pre-birth onwards. The impact of family adversity from pre-birth to age 3 years and stressful life events from 6 months to 7 years on behavioral disinhibition was determined in 7500 girls and boys. Behavioral disinhibition measures were: mother-reported hyperactivity and conduct disturbances (Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire) at ages 4 and 7 years. In both sexes, exposure to family adversity and stressful life events in the first 3 years of life predicted behavioral disinhibition at age 4, persisting until age 7. In girls, MAOA-LPR interacted with stressful life events experienced from 6 months to 3.5 years to influence hyperactivity at ages 4 and 7. In boys, the interaction of MAOA-LPR with stressful life events between 1.5 and 2.5 years predicted hyperactivity at age 7 years. The low activity MAOA-LPR variant was associated with increased hyperactivity in girls and boys exposed to high stress. In contrast, there was no MAOA-LPR interaction with family adversity. In a general population sample of prepubertal children, exposure to common stressors from pre-birth to 3 years predicted behavioral disinhibition, and MAOA-LPR- stressful life event interactions specifically predicted hyperactivity.

Using subjective expectations to forecast longevity: do survey respondents know something we don't know?

PubMed

Perozek, Maria

2008-02-01

Old-age mortality is notoriously difficult to predict because it requires not only an understanding of the process of senescence-which is influenced by genetic, environmental, and behavioral factors-but also a prediction of how these factors will evolve. In this paper I argue that individuals are uniquely qualified to predict their own mortality based on their own genetic background, as well as environmental and behavioral risk factors that are often known only to the individual. Given this private information, individuals form expectations about survival probabilities that may provide additional information to demographers and policymakers in their challenge to predict mortality. From expectations data from the 1992 Health and Retirement Study (HRS), I construct subjective, cohort life tables that are shown to predict the unusual direction of revisions to U.S. life expectancy by gender between 1992 and 2004: that is, for these cohorts, the Social Security Actuary (SSA) raised male life expectancy in 2004 and at the same lowered female life expectancy, narrowing the gender gap in longevity by 25% over this period. Further, although the subjective life expectancies for men appear to be roughly in line with the 2004 life tables, the subjective expectations of women suggest that female life expectancies estimated by the SSA might still be on the high side.

A comparison of major petroleum life cycle models | Science ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Many organizations have attempted to develop an accurate well-to-pump life cycle model of petroleum products in order to inform decision makers of the consequences of its use. Our paper studies five of these models, demonstrating the differences in their predictions and attempting to evaluate their data quality. Carbon dioxide well-to-pump emissions for gasoline showed a variation of 35 %, and other pollutants such as ammonia and particulate matter varied up to 100 %. Differences in allocation do not appear to explain differences in predictions. Effects of these deviations on well-to-wheels passenger vehicle and truck transportation life cycle models may be minimal for effects such as global warming potential (6 % spread), but for respiratory effects of criteria pollutants (41 % spread) and other impact categories, they can be significant. A data quality assessment of the models’ documentation revealed real differences between models in temporal and geographic representativeness, completeness, as well as transparency. Stakeholders may need to consider carefully the tradeoffs inherent when selecting a model to conduct life cycle assessments for systems that make heavy use of petroleum products. This is a qualitative and quantitative comparison of petroleum LCA models intended for an expert audience interested in better understanding the data quality of existing petroleum life cycle models and the quantitative differences between these models.