Ross, Macdonald, and a Theory for the Dynamics and Control of Mosquito-Transmitted Pathogens

PubMed Central

Smith, David L.; Battle, Katherine E.; Hay, Simon I.; Barker, Christopher M.; Scott, Thomas W.; McKenzie, F. Ellis

2012-01-01

Ronald Ross and George Macdonald are credited with developing a mathematical model of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission. A systematic historical review suggests that several mathematicians and scientists contributed to development of the Ross-Macdonald model over a period of 70 years. Ross developed two different mathematical models, Macdonald a third, and various “Ross-Macdonald” mathematical models exist. Ross-Macdonald models are best defined by a consensus set of assumptions. The mathematical model is just one part of a theory for the dynamics and control of mosquito-transmitted pathogens that also includes epidemiological and entomological concepts and metrics for measuring transmission. All the basic elements of the theory had fallen into place by the end of the Global Malaria Eradication Programme (GMEP, 1955–1969) with the concept of vectorial capacity, methods for measuring key components of transmission by mosquitoes, and a quantitative theory of vector control. The Ross-Macdonald theory has since played a central role in development of research on mosquito-borne pathogen transmission and the development of strategies for mosquito-borne disease prevention. PMID:22496640

X-ray transmission movies of spontaneous dynamic events

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smilowitz, L.; Henson, B. F.; Holmes, M.

2014-11-15

We describe a new x-ray radiographic imaging system which allows for continuous x-ray transmission imaging of spontaneous dynamic events. We demonstrate this method on thermal explosions in three plastic bonded formulations of the energetic material octahydro-1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazocine. We describe the x-ray imaging system and triggering developed to enable the continuous imaging of a thermal explosion.

Nonlinear dynamics analysis of the spur gear system for railway locomotive

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Junguo; He, Guangyue; Zhang, Jie; Zhao, Yongxiang; Yao, Yuan

2017-02-01

Considering the factors such as the nonlinearity backlash, static transmission error and time-varying meshing stiffness, a three-degree-of-freedom torsional vibration model of spur gear transmission system for a typical locomotive is developed, in which the wheel/rail adhesion torque is considered as uncertain but bounded parameter. Meantime, the Ishikawa method is used for analysis and calculation of the time-varying mesh stiffness of the gear pair in meshing process. With the help of bifurcation diagrams, phase plane diagrams, Poincaré maps, time domain response diagrams and amplitude-frequency spectrums, the effects of the pinion speed and stiffness on the dynamic behavior of gear transmission system for locomotive are investigated in detail by using the numerical integration method. Numerical examples reveal various types of nonlinear phenomena and dynamic evolution mechanism involving one-period responses, multi-periodic responses, bifurcation and chaotic responses. Some research results present useful information to dynamic design and vibration control of the gear transmission system for railway locomotive.

Quantifying Transmission Investment in Malaria Parasites

PubMed Central

Greischar, Megan A.; Mideo, Nicole; Read, Andrew F.; Bjørnstad, Ottar N.

2016-01-01

Many microparasites infect new hosts with specialized life stages, requiring a subset of the parasite population to forgo proliferation and develop into transmission forms. Transmission stage production influences infectivity, host exploitation, and the impact of medical interventions like drug treatment. Predicting how parasites will respond to public health efforts on both epidemiological and evolutionary timescales requires understanding transmission strategies. These strategies can rarely be observed directly and must typically be inferred from infection dynamics. Using malaria as a case study, we test previously described methods for inferring transmission stage investment against simulated data generated with a model of within-host infection dynamics, where the true transmission investment is known. We show that existing methods are inadequate and potentially very misleading. The key difficulty lies in separating transmission stages produced by different generations of parasites. We develop a new approach that performs much better on simulated data. Applying this approach to real data from mice infected with a single Plasmodium chabaudi strain, we estimate that transmission investment varies from zero to 20%, with evidence for variable investment over time in some hosts, but not others. These patterns suggest that, even in experimental infections where host genetics and other environmental factors are controlled, parasites may exhibit remarkably different patterns of transmission investment. PMID:26890485

Dynamical malaria models reveal how immunity buffers effect of climate variability

PubMed Central

Laneri, Karina; Paul, Richard E.; Tall, Adama; Faye, Joseph; Diene-Sarr, Fatoumata; Sokhna, Cheikh; Trape, Jean-François; Rodó, Xavier

2015-01-01

Assessing the influence of climate on the incidence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria worldwide and how it might impact local malaria dynamics is complex and extrapolation to other settings or future times is controversial. This is especially true in the light of the particularities of the short- and long-term immune responses to infection. In sites of epidemic malaria transmission, it is widely accepted that climate plays an important role in driving malaria outbreaks. However, little is known about the role of climate in endemic settings where clinical immunity develops early in life. To disentangle these differences among high- and low-transmission settings we applied a dynamical model to two unique adjacent cohorts of mesoendemic seasonal and holoendemic perennial malaria transmission in Senegal followed for two decades, recording daily P. falciparum cases. As both cohorts are subject to similar meteorological conditions, we were able to analyze the relevance of different immunological mechanisms compared with climatic forcing in malaria transmission. Transmission was first modeled by using similarly unique datasets of entomological inoculation rate. A stochastic nonlinear human–mosquito model that includes rainfall and temperature covariates, drug treatment periods, and population variability is capable of simulating the complete dynamics of reported malaria cases for both villages. We found that under moderate transmission intensity climate is crucial; however, under high endemicity the development of clinical immunity buffers any effect of climate. Our models open the possibility of forecasting malaria from climate in endemic regions but only after accounting for the interaction between climate and immunity. PMID:26124134

Towards a Predictive Theory of Malaria: Connections to Spatio-temporal Variability of Climate and Hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Endo, N.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

2015-12-01

Malaria transmission is closely linked to climatology, hydrology, environment, and the biology of local vectors. These factors interact with each other and non-linearly influence malaria transmission dynamics, making prediction and prevention challenging. Our work attempts to find a universality in the multi-dimensional system of malaria transmission and to develop a theory to predict emergence of malaria given a limited set of environmental and biological inputs.A credible malaria transmission dynamics model, HYDREMATS (Bomblies et al., 2008), was used under hypothetical settings to investigate the role of spatial and temporal distribution of vector breeding pools. HYDREMATS is a mechanistic model and capable of simulating the basic reproduction rate (Ro) without bold assumptions even under dynamic conditions. The spatial distribution of pools is mainly governed by hydrological factors; the impact of pool persistence and rainy season length on malaria transmission were investigated. Also analyzed was the impact of the temporal distribution of pools relative to human houses. We developed non-dimensional variables combining the hydrological and biological parameters. Simulated values of Ro from HYDREMATS are presented in a newly-introduced non-dimensional plane, which leads to a some-what universal theory describing the condition for sustainable malaria transmission. The findings were tested against observations both from the West Africa and the Ethiopian Highland, representing diverse hydroclimatological conditions. Predicated Ro values from the theory over the two regions are in good agreement with the observed malaria transmission data.

A combination of new screening assays for prioritization of transmission-blocking antimalarials reveals distinct dynamics of marketed and experimental drugs.

PubMed

Bolscher, J M; Koolen, K M J; van Gemert, G J; van de Vegte-Bolmer, M G; Bousema, T; Leroy, D; Sauerwein, R W; Dechering, K J

2015-05-01

The development of drugs to reduce malaria transmission is an important part of malaria eradication plans. We set out to develop and validate a combination of new screening assays for prioritization of transmission-blocking molecules. We developed high-throughput assays for screening compounds against gametocytes, the parasite stages responsible for onward transmission to mosquitoes. An existing gametocyte parasitic lactate dehydrogenase (pLDH) assay was adapted for use in 384-well plates, and a novel homogeneous immunoassay to monitor the functional transition of female gametocytes into gametes was developed. A collection of 48 marketed and experimental antimalarials was screened and subsequently tested for impact on sporogony in Anopheles mosquitoes, to directly quantify the transmission-blocking properties of antimalarials in relation to their effects on gametocyte pLDH activity or gametogenesis. The novel screening assays revealed distinct stage-specific kinetics and dynamics of drug effects. Peroxides showed the most potent transmission-blocking effects, with an intermediate speed of action and IC50 values that were 20-40-fold higher than the IC50s against the asexual stages causing clinical malaria. Finally, the novel synthetic peroxide OZ439 appeared to be a promising drug candidate as it exerted gametocytocidal and transmission-blocking effects at clinically relevant concentrations. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The transmission dynamics of groups A and B human respiratory syncytial virus (hRSV) in England & Wales and Finland: seasonality and cross-protection.

PubMed

White, L J; Waris, M; Cane, P A; Nokes, D J; Medley, G F

2005-04-01

Human respiratory syncytial virus (hRSV) transmission dynamics are inherently cyclical, and the observed genetic diversity (between groups A and B) also appears to have a repeating pattern. A key unknown is the extent to which genetic variants interact immunologically, and thus impact on epidemiology. We developed a novel mathematical model for hRSV transmission including seasonal forcing of incidence and temporary intra- and inter-group partial immunity. Simultaneous model fits to data from two locations (England & Wales, UK, and Turku, Finland) successfully reproduced the contrasting infection dynamics and group A/B dominance patterns. Parameter estimates are consistent with direct estimates. Differences in the magnitude and seasonal variation in contact rate between the two populations alone could account for the variation in dynamics between these populations. The A/B group dominance patterns are explained by reductions in susceptibility to and infectiousness of secondary homologous and heterologous infections. The consequences of the observed dynamic complexity are discussed.

A dynamic, climate-driven model of Rift Valley fever.

PubMed

Leedale, Joseph; Jones, Anne E; Caminade, Cyril; Morse, Andrew P

2016-03-31

Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in eastern Africa have previously occurred following specific rainfall dynamics and flooding events that appear to support the emergence of large numbers of mosquito vectors. As such, transmission of the virus is considered to be sensitive to environmental conditions and therefore changes in climate can impact the spatiotemporal dynamics of epizootic vulnerability. Epidemiological information describing the methods and parameters of RVF transmission and its dependence on climatic factors are used to develop a new spatio-temporal mathematical model that simulates these dynamics and can predict the impact of changes in climate. The Liverpool RVF (LRVF) model is a new dynamic, process-based model driven by climate data that provides a predictive output of geographical changes in RVF outbreak susceptibility as a result of the climate and local livestock immunity. This description of the multi-disciplinary process of model development is accessible to mathematicians, epidemiological modellers and climate scientists, uniting dynamic mathematical modelling, empirical parameterisation and state-of-the-art climate information.

Dynamics of Mechanical Signal Transmission through Prestressed Stress Fibers

PubMed Central

Hwang, Yongyun; Barakat, Abdul I.

2012-01-01

Transmission of mechanical stimuli through the actin cytoskeleton has been proposed as a mechanism for rapid long-distance mechanotransduction in cells; however, a quantitative understanding of the dynamics of this transmission and the physical factors governing it remains lacking. Two key features of the actin cytoskeleton are its viscoelastic nature and the presence of prestress due to actomyosin motor activity. We develop a model of mechanical signal transmission through prestressed viscoelastic actin stress fibers that directly connect the cell surface to the nucleus. The analysis considers both temporally stationary and oscillatory mechanical signals and accounts for cytosolic drag on the stress fibers. To elucidate the physical parameters that govern mechanical signal transmission, we initially focus on the highly simplified case of a single stress fiber. The results demonstrate that the dynamics of mechanical signal transmission depend on whether the applied force leads to transverse or axial motion of the stress fiber. For transverse motion, mechanical signal transmission is dominated by prestress while fiber elasticity has a negligible effect. Conversely, signal transmission for axial motion is mediated uniquely by elasticity due to the absence of a prestress restoring force. Mechanical signal transmission is significantly delayed by stress fiber material viscosity, while cytosolic damping becomes important only for longer stress fibers. Only transverse motion yields the rapid and long-distance mechanical signal transmission dynamics observed experimentally. For simple networks of stress fibers, mechanical signals are transmitted rapidly to the nucleus when the fibers are oriented largely orthogonal to the applied force, whereas the presence of fibers parallel to the applied force slows down mechanical signal transmission significantly. The present results suggest that cytoskeletal prestress mediates rapid mechanical signal transmission and allows temporally oscillatory signals in the physiological frequency range to travel a long distance without significant decay due to material viscosity and/or cytosolic drag. PMID:22514731

Advanced Gas Turbine (AGT) powertrain system development for automotive applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1981-01-01

Compressor development, turbine, combustion, regenerator system, gearbox/transmission, ceramic material and component development, foil gas bearings, bearings and seals, rotor dynamics development, and controls and accessories are discussed.

Effects of tooth profile modification on dynamic responses of a high speed gear-rotor-bearing system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Zehua; Tang, Jinyuan; Zhong, Jue; Chen, Siyu; Yan, Haiyan

2016-08-01

A finite element node dynamic model of a high speed gear-rotor-bearing system considering the time-varying mesh stiffness, backlash, gyroscopic effect and transmission error excitation is developed. Different tooth profile modifications are introduced into the gear pair and corresponding time-varying mesh stiffness curves are obtained. Effects of the tooth profile modification on mesh stiffness are analyzed, and the natural frequencies and mode shapes of the gear-rotor-bearing transmission system are given. The dynamic responses with respect to a wide input speed region including dynamic factor, vibration amplitude near the bearing and dynamic transmission error are obtained by introducing the time-varying mesh stiffness in different tooth profile modification cases into the gear-rotor-bearing dynamic system. Effects of the tooth profile modification on the dynamic responses are studied in detail. The numerical simulation results show that both the short profile modification and the long profile modification can affect the mutation of the mesh stiffness when the number of engaging tooth pairs changes. A short profile modification with an appropriate modification amount can improve the dynamic property of the system in certain work condition.

HIV Transmission Dynamics Among Foreign-Born Persons in the United States.

PubMed

Valverde, Eduardo E; Oster, Alexandra M; Xu, Songli; Wertheim, Joel O; Hernandez, Angela L

2017-12-15

In the United States (US), foreign-born persons are disproportionately affected by HIV and differ epidemiologically from US-born persons with diagnosed HIV infection. Understanding HIV transmission dynamics among foreign-born persons is important to guide HIV prevention efforts for these populations. We conducted molecular transmission network analysis to describe HIV transmission dynamics among foreign-born persons with diagnosed HIV. Using HIV-1 polymerase nucleotide sequences reported to the US National HIV Surveillance System for persons with diagnosed HIV infection during 2001-2013, we constructed a genetic distance-based transmission network using HIV-TRACE and examined the birth region of potential transmission partners in this network. Of 77,686 people, 12,064 (16%) were foreign born. Overall, 28% of foreign-born persons linked to at least one other person in the transmission network. Of potential transmission partners, 62% were born in the United States, 31% were born in the same region as the foreign-born person, and 7% were born in another region of the world. Most transmission partners of male foreign-born persons (63%) were born in the United States, whereas most transmission partners of female foreign-borns (57%) were born in their same world region. These finding suggests that a majority of HIV infections among foreign-born persons in our network occurred after immigrating to the United States. Efforts to prevent HIV infection among foreign-born persons in the United States should include information of the transmission networks in which these individuals acquire or transmit HIV to develop more targeted HIV prevention interventions.

Dynamics of a split torque helicopter transmission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rashidi, Majid; Krantz, Timothy

1992-01-01

A high reduction ratio split torque gear train has been proposed as an alternative to a planetary configuration for the final stage of a helicopter transmission. A split torque design allows a high ratio of power-to-weight for the transmission. The design studied in this work includes a pivoting beam that acts to balance thrust loads produced by the helical gear meshes in each of two parallel power paths. When the thrust loads are balanced, the torque is split evenly. A mathematical model was developed to study the dynamics of the system. The effects of time varying gear mesh stiffness, static transmission errors, and flexible bearing supports are included in the model. The model was demonstrated with a test case. Results show that although the gearbox has a symmetric configuration, the simulated dynamic behavior of the first and second compound gears are not the same. Also, results show that shaft location and mesh stiffness tuning are significant design parameters that influence the motions of the system.

Generic solar photovoltaic system dynamic simulation model specification

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ellis, Abraham; Behnke, Michael Robert; Elliott, Ryan Thomas

This document is intended to serve as a specification for generic solar photovoltaic (PV) system positive-sequence dynamic models to be implemented by software developers and approved by the WECC MVWG for use in bulk system dynamic simulations in accordance with NERC MOD standards. Two specific dynamic models are included in the scope of this document. The first, a Central Station PV System model, is intended to capture the most important dynamic characteristics of large scale (> 10 MW) PV systems with a central Point of Interconnection (POI) at the transmission level. The second, a Distributed PV System model, is intendedmore » to represent an aggregation of smaller, distribution-connected systems that comprise a portion of a composite load that might be modeled at a transmission load bus.« less

Influence of birth rates and transmission rates on the global seasonality of rotavirus incidence.

PubMed

Pitzer, Virginia E; Viboud, Cécile; Lopman, Ben A; Patel, Manish M; Parashar, Umesh D; Grenfell, Bryan T

2011-11-07

Rotavirus is a major cause of mortality in developing countries, and yet the dynamics of rotavirus in such settings are poorly understood. Rotavirus is typically less seasonal in the tropics, although recent observational studies have challenged the universality of this pattern. While numerous studies have examined the association between environmental factors and rotavirus incidence, here we explore the role of intrinsic factors. By fitting a mathematical model of rotavirus transmission dynamics to published age distributions of cases from 15 countries, we obtain estimates of local transmission rates. Model-predicted patterns of seasonal incidence based solely on differences in birth rates and transmission rates are significantly correlated with those observed (Spearman's ρ = 0.65, p < 0.05). We then examine seasonal patterns of rotavirus predicted across a range of different birth rates and transmission rates and explore how vaccination may impact these patterns. Our results suggest that the relative lack of rotavirus seasonality observed in many tropical countries may be due to the high birth rates and transmission rates typical of developing countries rather than being driven primarily by environmental conditions. While vaccination is expected to decrease the overall burden of disease, it may increase the degree of seasonal variation in the incidence of rotavirus in some settings.

ACEE composite structures technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

James, A. M.

1984-01-01

Topics addressed include: strength and hygrothermal response of L-1011 fin components; wing fuel containment and damage tolerance development; impact dynamics; acoustic transmission; fuselage structure; composite transport wing technology development; spar/assembly concepts.

Simultaneous inference of phylogenetic and transmission trees in infectious disease outbreaks

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Whole-genome sequencing of pathogens from host samples becomes more and more routine during infectious disease outbreaks. These data provide information on possible transmission events which can be used for further epidemiologic analyses, such as identification of risk factors for infectivity and transmission. However, the relationship between transmission events and sequence data is obscured by uncertainty arising from four largely unobserved processes: transmission, case observation, within-host pathogen dynamics and mutation. To properly resolve transmission events, these processes need to be taken into account. Recent years have seen much progress in theory and method development, but existing applications make simplifying assumptions that often break up the dependency between the four processes, or are tailored to specific datasets with matching model assumptions and code. To obtain a method with wider applicability, we have developed a novel approach to reconstruct transmission trees with sequence data. Our approach combines elementary models for transmission, case observation, within-host pathogen dynamics, and mutation, under the assumption that the outbreak is over and all cases have been observed. We use Bayesian inference with MCMC for which we have designed novel proposal steps to efficiently traverse the posterior distribution, taking account of all unobserved processes at once. This allows for efficient sampling of transmission trees from the posterior distribution, and robust estimation of consensus transmission trees. We implemented the proposed method in a new R package phybreak. The method performs well in tests of both new and published simulated data. We apply the model to five datasets on densely sampled infectious disease outbreaks, covering a wide range of epidemiological settings. Using only sampling times and sequences as data, our analyses confirmed the original results or improved on them: the more realistic infection times place more confidence in the inferred transmission trees. PMID:28545083

Simultaneous inference of phylogenetic and transmission trees in infectious disease outbreaks.

PubMed

Klinkenberg, Don; Backer, Jantien A; Didelot, Xavier; Colijn, Caroline; Wallinga, Jacco

2017-05-01

Whole-genome sequencing of pathogens from host samples becomes more and more routine during infectious disease outbreaks. These data provide information on possible transmission events which can be used for further epidemiologic analyses, such as identification of risk factors for infectivity and transmission. However, the relationship between transmission events and sequence data is obscured by uncertainty arising from four largely unobserved processes: transmission, case observation, within-host pathogen dynamics and mutation. To properly resolve transmission events, these processes need to be taken into account. Recent years have seen much progress in theory and method development, but existing applications make simplifying assumptions that often break up the dependency between the four processes, or are tailored to specific datasets with matching model assumptions and code. To obtain a method with wider applicability, we have developed a novel approach to reconstruct transmission trees with sequence data. Our approach combines elementary models for transmission, case observation, within-host pathogen dynamics, and mutation, under the assumption that the outbreak is over and all cases have been observed. We use Bayesian inference with MCMC for which we have designed novel proposal steps to efficiently traverse the posterior distribution, taking account of all unobserved processes at once. This allows for efficient sampling of transmission trees from the posterior distribution, and robust estimation of consensus transmission trees. We implemented the proposed method in a new R package phybreak. The method performs well in tests of both new and published simulated data. We apply the model to five datasets on densely sampled infectious disease outbreaks, covering a wide range of epidemiological settings. Using only sampling times and sequences as data, our analyses confirmed the original results or improved on them: the more realistic infection times place more confidence in the inferred transmission trees.

Detection of allosteric signal transmission by information-theoretic analysis of protein dynamics

PubMed Central

Pandini, Alessandro; Fornili, Arianna; Fraternali, Franca; Kleinjung, Jens

2012-01-01

Allostery offers a highly specific way to modulate protein function. Therefore, understanding this mechanism is of increasing interest for protein science and drug discovery. However, allosteric signal transmission is difficult to detect experimentally and to model because it is often mediated by local structural changes propagating along multiple pathways. To address this, we developed a method to identify communication pathways by an information-theoretical analysis of molecular dynamics simulations. Signal propagation was described as information exchange through a network of correlated local motions, modeled as transitions between canonical states of protein fragments. The method was used to describe allostery in two-component regulatory systems. In particular, the transmission from the allosteric site to the signaling surface of the receiver domain NtrC was shown to be mediated by a layer of hub residues. The location of hubs preferentially connected to the allosteric site was found in close agreement with key residues experimentally identified as involved in the signal transmission. The comparison with the networks of the homologues CheY and FixJ highlighted similarities in their dynamics. In particular, we showed that a preorganized network of fragment connections between the allosteric and functional sites exists already in the inactive state of all three proteins.—Pandini, A., Fornili, A., Fraternali, F., Kleinjung, J. Detection of allosteric signal transmission by information-theoretic analysis of protein dynamics. PMID:22071506

Dynamics Modelling of Transmission Gear Rattle and Analysis on Influence Factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Xiaona; Zhang, Honghui

2018-02-01

Based on the vibration dynamics modeling for the single stage gear of transmission system, this paper is to understand the mechanism of transmission rattle. The dynamic model response using MATLAB and Runge-Kutta algorithm is analyzed, and the ways for reducing the rattle noise of the automotive transmission is summarized.

Weather Regulates Location, Timing, and Intensity of Dengue Virus Transmission between Humans and Mosquitoes.

PubMed

Campbell, Karen M; Haldeman, Kristin; Lehnig, Chris; Munayco, Cesar V; Halsey, Eric S; Laguna-Torres, V Alberto; Yagui, Martín; Morrison, Amy C; Lin, Chii-Dean; Scott, Thomas W

2015-01-01

Dengue is one of the most aggressively expanding mosquito-transmitted viruses. The human burden approaches 400 million infections annually. Complex transmission dynamics pose challenges for predicting location, timing, and magnitude of risk; thus, models are needed to guide prevention strategies and policy development locally and globally. Weather regulates transmission-potential via its effects on vector dynamics. An important gap in understanding risk and roadblock in model development is an empirical perspective clarifying how weather impacts transmission in diverse ecological settings. We sought to determine if location, timing, and potential-intensity of transmission are systematically defined by weather. We developed a high-resolution empirical profile of the local weather-disease connection across Peru, a country with considerable ecological diversity. Applying 2-dimensional weather-space that pairs temperature versus humidity, we mapped local transmission-potential in weather-space by week during 1994-2012. A binary classification-tree was developed to test whether weather data could classify 1828 Peruvian districts as positive/negative for transmission and into ranks of transmission-potential with respect to observed disease. We show that transmission-potential is regulated by temperature-humidity coupling, enabling epidemics in a limited area of weather-space. Duration within a specific temperature range defines transmission-potential that is amplified exponentially in higher humidity. Dengue-positive districts were identified by mean temperature >22°C for 7+ weeks and minimum temperature >14°C for 33+ weeks annually with 95% sensitivity and specificity. In elevated-risk locations, seasonal peak-incidence occurred when mean temperature was 26-29°C, coincident with humidity at its local maximum; highest incidence when humidity >80%. We profile transmission-potential in weather-space for temperature-humidity ranging 0-38°C and 5-100% at 1°C x 2% resolution. Local duration in limited areas of temperature-humidity weather-space identifies potential locations, timing, and magnitude of transmission. The weather-space profile of transmission-potential provides needed data that define a systematic and highly-sensitive weather-disease connection, demonstrating separate but coupled roles of temperature and humidity. New insights regarding natural regulation of human-mosquito transmission across diverse ecological settings advance our understanding of risk locally and globally for dengue and other mosquito-borne diseases and support advances in public health policy/operations, providing an evidence-base for modeling, predicting risk, and surveillance-prevention planning.

Modelling Parasite Transmission in a Grazing System: The Importance of Host Behaviour and Immunity

PubMed Central

Fox, Naomi J.; Marion, Glenn; Davidson, Ross S.; White, Piran C. L.; Hutchings, Michael R.

2013-01-01

Parasitic helminths present one of the most pervasive challenges to grazing herbivores. Many macro-parasite transmission models focus on host physiological defence strategies, omitting more complex interactions between hosts and their environments. This work represents the first model that integrates both the behavioural and physiological elements of gastro-intestinal nematode transmission dynamics in a managed grazing system. A spatially explicit, individual-based, stochastic model is developed, that incorporates both the hosts’ immunological responses to parasitism, and key grazing behaviours including faecal avoidance. The results demonstrate that grazing behaviour affects both the timing and intensity of parasite outbreaks, through generating spatial heterogeneity in parasite risk and nutritional resources, and changing the timing of exposure to the parasites’ free-living stages. The influence of grazing behaviour varies with the host-parasite combination, dependent on the development times of different parasite species and variations in host immune response. Our outputs include the counterintuitive finding that under certain conditions perceived parasite avoidance behaviours (faecal avoidance) can increase parasite risk, for certain host-parasite combinations. Through incorporating the two-way interaction between infection dynamics and grazing behaviour, the potential benefits of parasite-induced anorexia are also demonstrated. Hosts with phenotypic plasticity in grazing behaviour, that make grazing decisions dependent on current parasite burden, can reduce infection with minimal loss of intake over the grazing season. This paper explores how both host behaviours and immunity influence macro-parasite transmission in a spatially and temporally heterogeneous environment. The magnitude and timing of parasite outbreaks is influenced by host immunity and behaviour, and the interactions between them; the incorporation of both regulatory processes is required to fully understand transmission dynamics. Understanding of both physiological and behavioural defence strategies will aid the development of novel approaches for control. PMID:24223133

Simple Epidemiological Dynamics Explain Phylogenetic Clustering of HIV from Patients with Recent Infection

PubMed Central

Volz, Erik M.; Koopman, James S.; Ward, Melissa J.; Brown, Andrew Leigh; Frost, Simon D. W.

2012-01-01

Phylogenies of highly genetically variable viruses such as HIV-1 are potentially informative of epidemiological dynamics. Several studies have demonstrated the presence of clusters of highly related HIV-1 sequences, particularly among recently HIV-infected individuals, which have been used to argue for a high transmission rate during acute infection. Using a large set of HIV-1 subtype B pol sequences collected from men who have sex with men, we demonstrate that virus from recent infections tend to be phylogenetically clustered at a greater rate than virus from patients with chronic infection (‘excess clustering’) and also tend to cluster with other recent HIV infections rather than chronic, established infections (‘excess co-clustering’), consistent with previous reports. To determine the role that a higher infectivity during acute infection may play in excess clustering and co-clustering, we developed a simple model of HIV infection that incorporates an early period of intensified transmission, and explicitly considers the dynamics of phylogenetic clusters alongside the dynamics of acute and chronic infected cases. We explored the potential for clustering statistics to be used for inference of acute stage transmission rates and found that no single statistic explains very much variance in parameters controlling acute stage transmission rates. We demonstrate that high transmission rates during the acute stage is not the main cause of excess clustering of virus from patients with early/acute infection compared to chronic infection, which may simply reflect the shorter time since transmission in acute infection. Higher transmission during acute infection can result in excess co-clustering of sequences, while the extent of clustering observed is most sensitive to the fraction of infections sampled. PMID:22761556

Multi-time scale dynamics in power electronics-dominated power systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Xiaoming; Hu, Jiabing; Cheng, Shijie

2017-09-01

Electric power infrastructure has recently undergone a comprehensive transformation from electromagnetics to semiconductors. Such a development is attributed to the rapid growth of power electronic converter applications in the load side to realize energy conservation and on the supply side for renewable generations and power transmissions using high voltage direct current transmission. This transformation has altered the fundamental mechanism of power system dynamics, which demands the establishment of a new theory for power system control and protection. This paper presents thoughts on a theoretical framework for the coming semiconducting power systems.

Numerical modeling of the transmission dynamics of drug-sensitive and drug-resistant HSV-2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gumel, A. B.

2001-03-01

A competitive finite-difference method will be constructed and used to solve a modified deterministic model for the spread of herpes simplex virus type-2 (HSV-2) within a given population. The model monitors the transmission dynamics and control of drug-sensitive and drug-resistant HSV-2. Unlike the fourth-order Runge-Kutta method (RK4), which fails when the discretization parameters exceed certain values, the novel numerical method to be developed in this paper gives convergent results for all parameter values.

Dynamic torsional response analysis of mechanoluminescent paint and its application to non-contacting automotive torque transducers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Gi-Woo; Kim, Ji-Sik

2014-01-01

This paper presents the result of a preliminary experimental study on the dynamic torsional response analysis of mechanoluminescent (ML) paint for potential development as a new type of non-contacting torque transducer. The torsional torque applied to a transmission shaft is measured by sensing the ML intensity emitting from an ML paint coating a transmission shaft. This study provides the fundamental knowledge for the development of new non-contacting torque sensing technology based on the ML intensity detection. The proposed measurement principle appears to offer potential applications in automotive torque measurement systems, even though the loading rate-dependent characteristics of the ML intensity needs to be examined further.

Avian Influenza spread and transmission dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bourouiba, Lydia; Gourley, Stephen A.; Liu, Rongsong; Takekawa, John Y.; Wu, Jianhong; Chen, Dongmei; Moulin, Bernard; Wu, Jianhong

2015-01-01

The spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses of type A of subtype H5N1 has been a serious threat to global public health. Understanding the roles of various (migratory, wild, poultry) bird species in the transmission of these viruses is critical for designing and implementing effective control and intervention measures. Developing appropriate models and mathematical techniques to understand these roles and to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies have been a challenge. Recent development of the global health surveillance (especially satellite tracking and GIS techniques) and the mathematical theory of dynamical systems combined have gradually shown the promise of some cutting-edge methodologies and techniques in mathematical biology to meet this challenge.

Planetary gear profile modification design based on load sharing modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iglesias, Miguel; Fernández Del Rincón, Alfonso; De-Juan, Ana Magdalena; Garcia, Pablo; Diez, Alberto; Viadero, Fernando

2015-07-01

In order to satisfy the increasing demand on high performance planetary transmissions, an important line of research is focused on the understanding of some of the underlying phenomena involved in this mechanical system. Through the development of models capable of reproduce the system behavior, research in this area contributes to improve gear transmission insight, helping developing better maintenance practices and more efficient design processes. A planetary gear model used for the design of profile modifications ratio based on the levelling of the load sharing ratio is presented. The gear profile geometry definition, following a vectorial approach that mimics the real cutting process of gears, is thoroughly described. Teeth undercutting and hypotrochoid definition are implicitly considered, and a procedure for the incorporation of a rounding arc at the tooth tip in order to deal with corner contacts is described. A procedure for the modeling of profile deviations is presented, which can be used for the introduction of both manufacturing errors and designed profile modifications. An easy and flexible implementation of the profile deviation within the planetary model is accomplished based on the geometric overlapping. The contact force calculation and dynamic implementation used in the model are also introduced, and parameters from a real transmission for agricultural applications are presented for the application example. A set of reliefs is designed based on the levelling of the load sharing ratio for the example transmission, and finally some other important dynamic factors of the transmission are analyzed to assess the changes in the dynamic behavior with respect to the non-modified case. Thus, the main innovative aspect of the proposed planetary transmission model is the capacity of providing a simulated load sharing ratio which serves as design variable for the calculation of the tooth profile modifications.

Game-theoretic equilibrium analysis applications to deregulated electricity markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joung, Manho

This dissertation examines game-theoretic equilibrium analysis applications to deregulated electricity markets. In particular, three specific applications are discussed: analyzing the competitive effects of ownership of financial transmission rights, developing a dynamic game model considering the ramp rate constraints of generators, and analyzing strategic behavior in electricity capacity markets. In the financial transmission right application, an investigation is made of how generators' ownership of financial transmission rights may influence the effects of the transmission lines on competition. In the second application, the ramp rate constraints of generators are explicitly modeled using a dynamic game framework, and the equilibrium is characterized as the Markov perfect equilibrium. Finally, the strategic behavior of market participants in electricity capacity markets is analyzed and it is shown that the market participants may exaggerate their available capacity in a Nash equilibrium. It is also shown that the more conservative the independent system operator's capacity procurement, the higher the risk of exaggerated capacity offers.

Broad patterns in domestic vector-borne Trypanosoma cruzi transmission dynamics: synanthropic animals and vector control.

PubMed

Peterson, Jennifer K; Bartsch, Sarah M; Lee, Bruce Y; Dobson, Andrew P

2015-10-22

Chagas disease (caused by Trypanosoma cruzi) is the most important neglected tropical disease (NTD) in Latin America, infecting an estimated 5.7 million people in the 21 countries where it is endemic. It is one of the NTDs targeted for control and elimination by the 2020 London Declaration goals, with the first goal being to interrupt intra-domiciliary vector-borne T. cruzi transmission. A key question in domestic T. cruzi transmission is the role that synanthropic animals play in T. cruzi transmission to humans. Here, we ask, (1) do synanthropic animals need to be targeted in Chagas disease prevention policies?, and (2) how does the presence of animals affect the efficacy of vector control? We developed a simple mathematical model to simulate domestic vector-borne T. cruzi transmission and to specifically examine the interaction between the presence of synanthropic animals and effects of vector control. We used the model to explore how the interactions between triatomine bugs, humans and animals impact the number and proportion of T. cruzi-infected bugs and humans. We then examined how T. cruzi dynamics change when control measures targeting vector abundance are introduced into the system. We found that the presence of synanthropic animals slows the speed of T. cruzi transmission to humans, and increases the sensitivity of T. cruzi transmission dynamics to vector control measures at comparable triatomine carrying capacities. However, T. cruzi transmission is amplified when triatomine carrying capacity increases with the abundance of syntathoropic hosts. Our results suggest that in domestic T. cruzi transmission scenarios where no vector control measures are in place, a reduction in synanthropic animals may slow T. cruzi transmission to humans, but it would not completely eliminate transmission. To reach the 2020 goal of interrupting intra-domiciliary T. cruzi transmission, it is critical to target vector populations. Additionally, where vector control measures are in place, synanthropic animals may be beneficial.

Impact of the implementation of rest days in live bird markets on the dynamics of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza.

PubMed

Fournié, G; Guitian, F J; Mangtani, P; Ghani, A C

2011-08-07

Live bird markets (LBMs) act as a network 'hub' and potential reservoir of infection for domestic poultry. They may therefore be responsible for sustaining H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus circulation within the poultry sector, and thus a suitable target for implementing control strategies. We developed a stochastic transmission model to understand how market functioning impacts on the transmission dynamics. We then investigated the potential for rest days-periods during which markets are emptied and disinfected-to modulate the dynamics of H5N1 HPAI within the poultry sector using a stochastic meta-population model. Our results suggest that under plausible parameter scenarios, HPAI H5N1 could be sustained silently within LBMs with the time spent by poultry in markets and the frequency of introduction of new susceptible birds' dominant factors determining sustained silent spread. Compared with interventions applied in farms (i.e. stamping out, vaccination), our model shows that frequent rest days are an effective means to reduce HPAI transmission. Furthermore, our model predicts that full market closure would be only slightly more effective than rest days to reduce transmission. Strategies applied within markets could thus help to control transmission of the disease.

Impact of the implementation of rest days in live bird markets on the dynamics of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza

PubMed Central

Fournié, G.; Guitian, F. J.; Mangtani, P.; Ghani, A. C.

2011-01-01

Live bird markets (LBMs) act as a network ‘hub’ and potential reservoir of infection for domestic poultry. They may therefore be responsible for sustaining H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus circulation within the poultry sector, and thus a suitable target for implementing control strategies. We developed a stochastic transmission model to understand how market functioning impacts on the transmission dynamics. We then investigated the potential for rest days—periods during which markets are emptied and disinfected—to modulate the dynamics of H5N1 HPAI within the poultry sector using a stochastic meta-population model. Our results suggest that under plausible parameter scenarios, HPAI H5N1 could be sustained silently within LBMs with the time spent by poultry in markets and the frequency of introduction of new susceptible birds' dominant factors determining sustained silent spread. Compared with interventions applied in farms (i.e. stamping out, vaccination), our model shows that frequent rest days are an effective means to reduce HPAI transmission. Furthermore, our model predicts that full market closure would be only slightly more effective than rest days to reduce transmission. Strategies applied within markets could thus help to control transmission of the disease. PMID:21131332

[Transmission dynamic model for echinococcosis granulosus: establishment and application].

PubMed

Yang, Shi-Jie; Wu, Wei-Ping

2009-06-01

A dynamic model of disease can be used to quantitatively describe the pattern and characteristics of disease transmission, predict the disease status and evaluate the efficacy of control strategy. This review summarizes the basic transmission dynamic models of echinococcosis granulosus and their application.

The dynamics, transmission, and population impacts of avian malaria in native hawaiian birds: A modeling approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Samuel, M.D.; Hobbelen, P.H.F.; Decastro, F.; Ahumada, J.A.; Lapointe, D.A.; Atkinson, C.T.; Woodworth, B.L.; Hart, P.J.; Duffy, D.C.

2011-01-01

We developed an epidemiological model of avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum) across an altitudinal gradient on the island of Hawaii that includes the dynamics of the host, vector, and parasite. This introduced mosquito-borne disease is hypothesized to have contributed to extinctions and major shifts in the altitudinal distribution of highly susceptible native forest birds. Our goal was to better understand how biotic and abiotic factors influence the intensity of malaria transmission and impact on susceptible populations of native Hawaiian forest birds. Our model illustrates key patterns in the malaria-forest bird system: high malaria transmission in low-elevation forests with minor seasonal or annual variation in infection;episodic transmission in mid-elevation forests with site-to-site, seasonal, and annual variation depending on mosquito dynamics;and disease refugia in high-elevation forests with only slight risk of infection during summer. These infection patterns are driven by temperature and rainfall effects on parasite incubation period and mosquito dynamics across an elevational gradient and the availability of larval habitat, especially in mid-elevation forests. The results from our model suggest that disease is likely a key factor in causing population decline or restricting the distribution of many susceptible Hawaiian species and preventing the recovery of other vulnerable species. The model also provides a framework for the evaluation of factors influencing disease transmission and alternative disease control programs, and to evaluate the impact of climate change on disease cycles and bird populations. ??2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

Control and dynamics study for the satellite power system. Volume 1: MPTS/SPS collector dynamic analysis and surface deformation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, S. J.

1980-01-01

The basic dynamic properties and performance characteristics of the microwave power transmission satellite antenna were analyzed in an effort to develop criteria, requirements, and constraints for the control and structure design. The vibrational properties, the surface deformation, and the corresponding scan loss under the influence of disturbances are considered.

A Theoretical Approach to Understanding Population Dynamics with Seasonal Developmental Durations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lou, Yijun; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

2017-04-01

There is a growing body of biological investigations to understand impacts of seasonally changing environmental conditions on population dynamics in various research fields such as single population growth and disease transmission. On the other side, understanding the population dynamics subject to seasonally changing weather conditions plays a fundamental role in predicting the trends of population patterns and disease transmission risks under the scenarios of climate change. With the host-macroparasite interaction as a motivating example, we propose a synthesized approach for investigating the population dynamics subject to seasonal environmental variations from theoretical point of view, where the model development, basic reproduction ratio formulation and computation, and rigorous mathematical analysis are involved. The resultant model with periodic delay presents a novel term related to the rate of change of the developmental duration, bringing new challenges to dynamics analysis. By investigating a periodic semiflow on a suitably chosen phase space, the global dynamics of a threshold type is established: all solutions either go to zero when basic reproduction ratio is less than one, or stabilize at a positive periodic state when the reproduction ratio is greater than one. The synthesized approach developed here is applicable to broader contexts of investigating biological systems with seasonal developmental durations.

Nonlinear system guidance in the presence of transmission zero dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meyer, G.; Hunt, L. R.; Su, R.

1995-01-01

An iterative procedure is proposed for computing the commanded state trajectories and controls that guide a possibly multiaxis, time-varying, nonlinear system with transmission zero dynamics through a given arbitrary sequence of control points. The procedure is initialized by the system inverse with the transmission zero effects nulled out. Then the 'steady state' solution of the perturbation model with the transmission zero dynamics intact is computed and used to correct the initial zero-free solution. Both time domain and frequency domain methods are presented for computing the steady state solutions of the possibly nonminimum phase transmission zero dynamics. The procedure is illustrated by means of linear and nonlinear examples.

An agent-based model of tsetse fly response to seasonal climatic drivers: Assessing the impact on sleeping sickness transmission rates.

PubMed

Alderton, Simon; Macleod, Ewan T; Anderson, Neil E; Palmer, Gwen; Machila, Noreen; Simuunza, Martin; Welburn, Susan C; Atkinson, Peter M

2018-02-01

This paper presents the development of an agent-based model (ABM) to incorporate climatic drivers which affect tsetse fly (G. m. morsitans) population dynamics, and ultimately disease transmission. The model was used to gain a greater understanding of how tsetse populations fluctuate seasonally, and investigate any response observed in Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense human African trypanosomiasis (rHAT) disease transmission, with a view to gaining a greater understanding of disease dynamics. Such an understanding is essential for the development of appropriate, well-targeted mitigation strategies in the future. The ABM was developed to model rHAT incidence at a fine spatial scale along a 75 km transect in the Luangwa Valley, Zambia. The model incorporates climatic factors that affect pupal mortality, pupal development, birth rate, and death rate. In combination with fine scale demographic data such as ethnicity, age and gender for the human population in the region, as well as an animal census and a sample of daily routines, we create a detailed, plausible simulation model to explore tsetse population and disease transmission dynamics. The seasonally-driven model suggests that the number of infections reported annually in the simulation is likely to be a reasonable representation of reality, taking into account the high levels of under-detection observed. Similar infection rates were observed in human (0.355 per 1000 person-years (SE = 0.013)), and cattle (0.281 per 1000 cattle-years (SE = 0.025)) populations, likely due to the sparsity of cattle close to the tsetse interface. The model suggests that immigrant tribes and school children are at greatest risk of infection, a result that derives from the bottom-up nature of the ABM and conditioning on multiple constraints. This result could not be inferred using alternative population-level modelling approaches. In producing a model which models the tsetse population at a very fine resolution, we were able to analyse and evaluate specific elements of the output, such as pupal development and the progression of the teneral population, allowing the development of our understanding of the tsetse population as a whole. This is an important step in the production of a more accurate transmission model for rHAT which can, in turn, help us to gain a greater understanding of the transmission system as a whole.

Dynamical jumping real-time fault-tolerant routing protocol for wireless sensor networks.

PubMed

Wu, Guowei; Lin, Chi; Xia, Feng; Yao, Lin; Zhang, He; Liu, Bing

2010-01-01

In time-critical wireless sensor network (WSN) applications, a high degree of reliability is commonly required. A dynamical jumping real-time fault-tolerant routing protocol (DMRF) is proposed in this paper. Each node utilizes the remaining transmission time of the data packets and the state of the forwarding candidate node set to dynamically choose the next hop. Once node failure, network congestion or void region occurs, the transmission mode will switch to jumping transmission mode, which can reduce the transmission time delay, guaranteeing the data packets to be sent to the destination node within the specified time limit. By using feedback mechanism, each node dynamically adjusts the jumping probabilities to increase the ratio of successful transmission. Simulation results show that DMRF can not only efficiently reduce the effects of failure nodes, congestion and void region, but also yield higher ratio of successful transmission, smaller transmission delay and reduced number of control packets.

Enhanced model of gear transmission dynamics for condition monitoring applications: Effects of torque, friction and bearing clearance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez-del-Rincon, A.; Garcia, P.; Diez-Ibarbia, A.; de-Juan, A.; Iglesias, M.; Viadero, F.

2017-02-01

Gear transmissions remain as one of the most complex mechanical systems from the point of view of noise and vibration behavior. Research on gear modeling leading to the obtaining of models capable of accurately reproduce the dynamic behavior of real gear transmissions has spread out the last decades. Most of these models, although useful for design stages, often include simplifications that impede their application for condition monitoring purposes. Trying to filling this gap, the model presented in this paper allows us to simulate gear transmission dynamics including most of these features usually neglected by the state of the art models. This work presents a model capable of considering simultaneously the internal excitations due to the variable meshing stiffness (including the coupling among successive tooth pairs in contact, the non-linearity linked with the contacts between surfaces and the dissipative effects), and those excitations consequence of the bearing variable compliance (including clearances or pre-loads). The model can also simulate gear dynamics in a realistic torque dependent scenario. The proposed model combines a hybrid formulation for calculation of meshing forces with a non-linear variable compliance approach for bearings. Meshing forces are obtained by means of a double approach which combines numerical and analytical aspects. The methodology used provides a detailed description of the meshing forces, allowing their calculation even when gear center distance is modified due to shaft and bearing flexibilities, which are unavoidable in real transmissions. On the other hand, forces at bearing level were obtained considering a variable number of supporting rolling elements, depending on the applied load and clearances. Both formulations have been developed and applied to the simulation of the vibration of a sample transmission, focusing the attention on the transmitted load, friction meshing forces and bearing preloads.

Dynamic Variation in Sexual Contact Rates in a Cohort of HIV-Negative Gay Men.

PubMed

Romero-Severson, E O; Volz, E; Koopman, J S; Leitner, T; Ionides, E L

2015-08-01

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission models that include variability in sexual behavior over time have shown increased incidence, prevalence, and acute-state transmission rates for a given population risk profile. This raises the question of whether dynamic variation in individual sexual behavior is a real phenomenon that can be observed and measured. To study this dynamic variation, we developed a model incorporating heterogeneity in both between-person and within-person sexual contact patterns. Using novel methodology that we call iterated filtering for longitudinal data, we fitted this model by maximum likelihood to longitudinal survey data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Collaborative HIV Seroincidence Study (1992-1995). We found evidence for individual heterogeneity in sexual behavior over time. We simulated an epidemic process and found that inclusion of empirically measured levels of dynamic variation in individual-level sexual behavior brought the theoretical predictions of HIV incidence into closer alignment with reality given the measured per-act probabilities of transmission. The methods developed here provide a framework for quantifying variation in sexual behaviors that helps in understanding the HIV epidemic among gay men. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health 2015. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

Method of transmission of dynamic multibit digital images from micro-unmanned aerial vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrov, E. P.; Kharina, N. L.

2018-01-01

In connection with successful usage of nanotechnologies in remote sensing great attention is paid to the systems in micro-unmanned aerial vehicles (MUAVs) capable to provide high spatial resolution of dynamic multibit digital images (MDI). Limited energy resources on board the MUAV do not allow transferring a large amount of video information in the shortest possible time. It keeps back the broad development of MUAV. The search for methods to shorten the transmission time of dynamic MDIs from MUAV over the radio channel leads to the methods of MDI compression without computational operations onboard the MUAV. The known compression codecs of video information can not be applied because of the limited energy resources. In this paper we propose a method for reducing the transmission time of dynamic MDIs without computational operations and distortions onboard the MUAV. To develop the method a mathematical apparatus of the theory of conditional Markov processes with discrete arguments was used. On its basis a mathematical model for the transformation of the MDI represented by binary images (BI) in the MDI, consisting of groups of neighboring BIs (GBI) transmitted by multiphase (MP) signals, is constructed. The algorithm for multidimensional nonlinear filtering of MP signals is synthesized, realizing the statistical redundancy of the MDI to compensate for the noise stability losses caused by the use of MP signals.

Weather Regulates Location, Timing, and Intensity of Dengue Virus Transmission between Humans and Mosquitoes

PubMed Central

Campbell, Karen M.; Haldeman, Kristin; Lehnig, Chris; Munayco, Cesar V.; Halsey, Eric S.; Laguna-Torres, V. Alberto; Yagui, Martín; Morrison, Amy C.; Lin, Chii-Dean; Scott, Thomas W.

2015-01-01

Background Dengue is one of the most aggressively expanding mosquito-transmitted viruses. The human burden approaches 400 million infections annually. Complex transmission dynamics pose challenges for predicting location, timing, and magnitude of risk; thus, models are needed to guide prevention strategies and policy development locally and globally. Weather regulates transmission-potential via its effects on vector dynamics. An important gap in understanding risk and roadblock in model development is an empirical perspective clarifying how weather impacts transmission in diverse ecological settings. We sought to determine if location, timing, and potential-intensity of transmission are systematically defined by weather. Methodology/Principal Findings We developed a high-resolution empirical profile of the local weather-disease connection across Peru, a country with considerable ecological diversity. Applying 2-dimensional weather-space that pairs temperature versus humidity, we mapped local transmission-potential in weather-space by week during 1994-2012. A binary classification-tree was developed to test whether weather data could classify 1828 Peruvian districts as positive/negative for transmission and into ranks of transmission-potential with respect to observed disease. We show that transmission-potential is regulated by temperature-humidity coupling, enabling epidemics in a limited area of weather-space. Duration within a specific temperature range defines transmission-potential that is amplified exponentially in higher humidity. Dengue-positive districts were identified by mean temperature >22°C for 7+ weeks and minimum temperature >14°C for 33+ weeks annually with 95% sensitivity and specificity. In elevated-risk locations, seasonal peak-incidence occurred when mean temperature was 26-29°C, coincident with humidity at its local maximum; highest incidence when humidity >80%. We profile transmission-potential in weather-space for temperature-humidity ranging 0-38°C and 5-100% at 1°C x 2% resolution. Conclusions/Significance Local duration in limited areas of temperature-humidity weather-space identifies potential locations, timing, and magnitude of transmission. The weather-space profile of transmission-potential provides needed data that define a systematic and highly-sensitive weather-disease connection, demonstrating separate but coupled roles of temperature and humidity. New insights regarding natural regulation of human-mosquito transmission across diverse ecological settings advance our understanding of risk locally and globally for dengue and other mosquito-borne diseases and support advances in public health policy/operations, providing an evidence-base for modeling, predicting risk, and surveillance-prevention planning. PMID:26222979

Effect of Bearing Dynamic Stiffness on Gear Vibration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fleming, David P.

2002-01-01

Noise is a major consideration in the design of high performance geared transmissions, such as for helicopters. Transmission error, that is, the accuracy with which the driven gear follows the driver gear, is a common indicator of noise generation. It is well known that bearing properties have a strong influence on shaft dynamics. However, up to now the contribution of bearings to transmission error has received little attention. In this paper, a torsional-axial-lateral geared rotor analysis is used to determine dynamic transmission error as a function of bearing stiffness and damping. Bearings have a similar effect as found in shaft dynamics; transmission error can be reduced more than 10 decibels by appropriate selection of bearing properties.

The potential for sexual transmission to compromise control of Ebola virus outbreaks.

PubMed

Vinson, John E; Drake, John M; Rohani, Pejman; Park, Andrew W

2016-06-01

Recent evidence suggests that sexual contact may give rise to transmission of Ebola virus long after infection has been cleared from blood. We develop a simple mathematical model that incorporates contact transmission and sexual transmission parametrized from data relating to the 2013-2015 West African Ebola epidemic. The model explores scenarios where contact transmission is reduced following infection events, capturing behaviour change, and quantifies how these actions reducing transmission may be compromised by sexual transmission in terms of increasing likelihood, size and duration of outbreaks. We characterize the extent to which sexual transmission operates in terms of the probability of initial infection resolving to sexual infectiousness and the sexual transmission rate, and relate these parameters to the overall case burden. We find that sexual transmission can have large effects on epidemic dynamics (increasing attack ratios from 25% in scenarios without sexual transmission but with contact-transmission-reducing behaviour, up to 80% in equivalent scenarios with sexual transmission). © 2016 The Author(s).

Locomotive dynamic performance under traction/braking conditions considering effect of gear transmissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Zaigang; Zhai, Wanming; Wang, Kaiyun

2018-07-01

Traction or braking operations are usually applied to trains or locomotives for acceleration, speed adjustment, and stopping. During these operations, gear transmission equipment plays a very significant role in the delivery of traction or electrical braking power. Failures of the gear transmissions are likely to cause power loses and even threaten the operation safety of the train. Its dynamic performance is closely related to the normal operation and service safety of the entire train, especially under some emergency braking conditions. In this paper, a locomotive-track coupled vertical-longitudinal dynamics model is employed with considering the dynamic action from the gear transmissions. This dynamics model enables the detailed analysis and more practical simulation on the characteristics of power transmission path, namely motor-gear transmission-wheelset-longitudinal motion of locomotive, especially for traction or braking conditions. Multi-excitation sources, such as time-varying mesh stiffness and nonlinear wheel-rail contact excitations, are considered in this study. This dynamics model is then validated by comparing the simulated results with the experimental test results under braking conditions. The calculated results indicate that involvement of gear transmission could reveal the load reduction of the wheelset due to transmitted forces. Vibrations of the wheelset and the motor are dominated by variation of the gear dynamic mesh forces in the low speed range and by rail geometric irregularity in the higher speed range. Rail vertical geometric irregularity could also cause wheelset longitudinal vibrations, and do modulations to the gear dynamic mesh forces. Besides, the hauling weight has little effect on the locomotive vibrations and the dynamic mesh forces of the gear transmissions for both traction and braking conditions under the same running speed.

Modelling climate change and malaria transmission.

PubMed

Parham, Paul E; Michael, Edwin

2010-01-01

The impact of climate change on human health has received increasing attention in recent years, with potential impacts due to vector-borne diseases only now beginning to be understood. As the most severe vector-borne disease, with one million deaths globally in 2006, malaria is thought most likely to be affected by changes in climate variables due to the sensitivity of its transmission dynamics to environmental conditions. While considerable research has been carried out using statistical models to better assess the relationship between changes in environmental variables and malaria incidence, less progress has been made on developing process-based climate-driven mathematical models with greater explanatory power. Here, we develop a simple model of malaria transmission linked to climate which permits useful insights into the sensitivity of disease transmission to changes in rainfall and temperature variables. Both the impact of changes in the mean values of these key external variables and importantly temporal variation in these values are explored. We show that the development and analysis of such dynamic climate-driven transmission models will be crucial to understanding the rate at which P. falciparum and P. vivax may either infect, expand into or go extinct in populations as local environmental conditions change. Malaria becomes endemic in a population when the basic reproduction number R0 is greater than unity and we identify an optimum climate-driven transmission window for the disease, thus providing a useful indicator for determing how transmission risk may change as climate changes. Overall, our results indicate that considerable work is required to better understand ways in which global malaria incidence and distribution may alter with climate change. In particular, we show that the roles of seasonality, stochasticity and variability in environmental variables, as well as ultimately anthropogenic effects, require further study. The work presented here offers a theoretical framework upon which this future research may be developed.

Early animal farming and zoonotic disease dynamics: modelling brucellosis transmission in Neolithic goat populations.

PubMed

Fournié, Guillaume; Pfeiffer, Dirk U; Bendrey, Robin

2017-02-01

Zoonotic pathogens are frequently hypothesized as emerging with the origins of farming, but evidence of this is elusive in the archaeological records. To explore the potential impact of animal domestication on zoonotic disease dynamics and human infection risk, we developed a model simulating the transmission of Brucella melitensis within early domestic goat populations. The model was informed by archaeological data describing goat populations in Neolithic settlements in the Fertile Crescent, and used to assess the potential of these populations to sustain the circulation of Brucella . Results show that the pathogen could have been sustained even at low levels of transmission within these domestic goat populations. This resulted from the creation of dense populations and major changes in demographic characteristics. The selective harvesting of young male goats, likely aimed at improving the efficiency of food production, modified the age and sex structure of these populations, increasing the transmission potential of the pathogen within these populations. Probable interactions between Neolithic settlements would have further promoted pathogen maintenance. By fostering conditions suitable for allowing domestic goats to become reservoirs of Brucella melitensis , the early stages of agricultural development were likely to promote the exposure of humans to this pathogen.

Early animal farming and zoonotic disease dynamics: modelling brucellosis transmission in Neolithic goat populations

PubMed Central

Pfeiffer, Dirk U.; Bendrey, Robin

2017-01-01

Zoonotic pathogens are frequently hypothesized as emerging with the origins of farming, but evidence of this is elusive in the archaeological records. To explore the potential impact of animal domestication on zoonotic disease dynamics and human infection risk, we developed a model simulating the transmission of Brucella melitensis within early domestic goat populations. The model was informed by archaeological data describing goat populations in Neolithic settlements in the Fertile Crescent, and used to assess the potential of these populations to sustain the circulation of Brucella. Results show that the pathogen could have been sustained even at low levels of transmission within these domestic goat populations. This resulted from the creation of dense populations and major changes in demographic characteristics. The selective harvesting of young male goats, likely aimed at improving the efficiency of food production, modified the age and sex structure of these populations, increasing the transmission potential of the pathogen within these populations. Probable interactions between Neolithic settlements would have further promoted pathogen maintenance. By fostering conditions suitable for allowing domestic goats to become reservoirs of Brucella melitensis, the early stages of agricultural development were likely to promote the exposure of humans to this pathogen. PMID:28386446

Design and test of aircraft engine isolators for reduced interior noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Unruh, J. F.; Scheidt, D. C.

1982-01-01

Improved engine vibration isolation was proposed to be the most weight and cost efficient retrofit structure-borne noise control measure for single engine general aviation aircraft. A study was carried out the objectives: (1) to develop an engine isolator design specification for reduced interior noise transmission, (2) select/design candidate isolators to meet a 15 dB noise reduction design goal, and (3) carry out a proof of concept evaluation test. Analytical model of the engine, vibration isolators and engine mount structure were coupled to an empirical model of the fuselage for noise transmission evaluation. The model was used to develop engine isolator dynamic properties design specification for reduced noise transmission. Candidate isolators ere chosen from available product literature and retrofit to a test aircraft. A laboratory based test procedure was then developed to simulate engine induced noise transmission in the aircraft for a proof of concept evaluation test. Three candidate isolator configurations were evaluated for reduced structure-borne noise transmission relative to the original equipment isolators.

Heterogeneity, Mixing, and the Spatial Scales of Mosquito-Borne Pathogen Transmission

PubMed Central

Perkins, T. Alex; Scott, Thomas W.; Le Menach, Arnaud; Smith, David L.

2013-01-01

The Ross-Macdonald model has dominated theory for mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control for over a century. The model, like many other basic population models, makes the mathematically convenient assumption that populations are well mixed; i.e., that each mosquito is equally likely to bite any vertebrate host. This assumption raises questions about the validity and utility of current theory because it is in conflict with preponderant empirical evidence that transmission is heterogeneous. Here, we propose a new dynamic framework that is realistic enough to describe biological causes of heterogeneous transmission of mosquito-borne pathogens of humans, yet tractable enough to provide a basis for developing and improving general theory. The framework is based on the ecological context of mosquito blood meals and the fine-scale movements of individual mosquitoes and human hosts that give rise to heterogeneous transmission. Using this framework, we describe pathogen dispersion in terms of individual-level analogues of two classical quantities: vectorial capacity and the basic reproductive number, . Importantly, this framework explicitly accounts for three key components of overall heterogeneity in transmission: heterogeneous exposure, poor mixing, and finite host numbers. Using these tools, we propose two ways of characterizing the spatial scales of transmission—pathogen dispersion kernels and the evenness of mixing across scales of aggregation—and demonstrate the consequences of a model's choice of spatial scale for epidemic dynamics and for estimation of , both by a priori model formulas and by inference of the force of infection from time-series data. PMID:24348223

Ecohealth System Dynamic Model as a Planning Tool for the Reduction of Breeding Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Respati, T.; Raksanagara, A.; Djuhaeni, H.; Sofyan, A.; Shandriasti, A.

2017-03-01

Dengue is still one of major health problem in Indonesia. Dengue transmission is influenced by dengue prevention and eradication program, community participation, housing environment and climate. The complexity of the disease coupled with limited resources necessitates different approach for prevention methods that include factors contribute to the transmission. One way to prevent the dengue transmission is by reducing the mosquito’s breeding sites. Four factors suspected to influence breeding sites are dengue prevention and eradication program, community participation, housing environment, and weather condition. In order to have an effective program in reducing the breeding site it is needed to have a model which can predict existence of the breeding sites while the four factors under study are controlled. The objective of this study is to develop an Ecohealth model using system dynamic as a planning tool for the reduction of breeding sites to prevent dengue transmission with regard to dengue prevention and eradication program, community participation, housing environment, and weather condition. The methodology is a mixed method study using sequential exploratory design. The study comprised of 3 stages: first a qualitative study to 14 respondents using in-depth interview and 6 respondents for focus group discussion. The results from the first stage was used to develop entomology and household survey questionnaires for second stage conducted in 2036 households across 12 sub districts in Bandung City. Ecohealth system dynamic model was developed using data from first and second stages. Analyses used are thematic analysis for qualitative data; spatial, generalized estimating equation (GEE) and structural equation modeling for quantitative data; also average mean error (AME) and average variance error (AVE) for dynamic system model validation. System dynamic model showed that the most effective approach to eliminate breeding places was by ensuring the availability of basic sanitation for all houses. Weather factors such as precipitation can be compensated with the eradication of breeding sites activities which is conducted as scheduled and at the same time for the whole areas. Conclusion of this study is that dengue prevention and eradication program, community participation, and housing environment contributed to breeding places elimination influenced the existence of the breeding sites. The availability of basic sanitation and breeding places eradication program done timely and collectively are the most effective approach to eradicate breeding sites. Ecohealth dynamic system model can be used as a tool for the planning of breeding sites eradication program to prevent disease transmissions at city level.

Modelling and observing the role of wind in Anopheles population dynamics around a reservoir.

PubMed

Endo, Noriko; Eltahir, Elfatih A B

2018-01-25

Wind conditions, as well as other environmental conditions, are likely to influence malaria transmission through the behaviours of Anopheles mosquitoes, especially around water-resource reservoirs. Wind-induced waves in a reservoir impose mortality on aquatic-stage mosquitoes. Mosquitoes' host-seeking activity is also influenced by wind through dispersion of [Formula: see text]. However, no malaria transmission model exists to date that simulated those impacts of wind mechanistically. A modelling framework for simulating the three important effects of wind on the behaviours of mosquito is developed: attraction of adult mosquitoes through dispersion of [Formula: see text] ([Formula: see text] attraction), advection of adult mosquitoes (advection), and aquatic-stage mortality due to wind-induced surface waves (waves). The framework was incorporated in a mechanistic malaria transmission simulator, HYDREMATS. The performance of the extended simulator was compared with the observed population dynamics of the Anopheles mosquitoes at a village adjacent to the Koka Reservoir in Ethiopia. The observed population dynamics of the Anopheles mosquitoes were reproduced with some reasonable accuracy in HYDREMATS that includes the representation of the wind effects. HYDREMATS without the wind model failed to do so. Offshore wind explained the increase in Anopheles population that cannot be expected from other environmental conditions alone. Around large water bodies such as reservoirs, the role of wind in the dynamics of Anopheles population, hence in malaria transmission, can be significant. Modelling the impacts of wind on the behaviours of Anopheles mosquitoes aids in reproducing the seasonality of malaria transmission and in estimation of the risk of malaria around reservoirs.

Development of a Model Based Technique for Gear Diagnostics using the Wigner-Ville method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choy, F.; Xu, A.; Polyshchuk, V.

1997-01-01

Imperfections in gear tooth geometry often result from errors in the manufacturing process or excessive material wear during operation. Such faults in the gear tooth geometry can result in large vibrations in the transmission system, and, in some cases, may lead to early failure of the gear transmission system. This report presents the study of the effects of imperfection in gear tooth geometry on the dynamic characteristics of a gear transmission system. The faults in the gear tooth geometry are modeled numerically as the deviation of the tooth profile from its original involute geometry. The changes in gear mesh stiffness due to various profile and pattern variations are evaluated numerically. The resulting changes in the mesh stiffness are incorporated into a computer code to simulate the dynamics of the gear transmission system. A parametric study is performed to examine the sensitivity of gear tooth geometry imperfections on the vibration of a gear transmission system. The parameters variations in this study consist of the magnitude of the imperfection, the pattern of the profile variation, and the total number of teeth affected. Numerical results from the dynamic simulations are examined in both the time and the frequency domains. A joint time-frequency analysis procedure using the Wigner-Ville Distribution is also introduced to identify the location of the damaged tooth from the vibration signature. Numerical simulations of the system dynamics with gear faults were compared to experimental results. An optimal tracker was introduced to quantify the level of damage in the gear mesh system. Conclusions are drawn from the results of this numerical study.

Impact of combined vector-control and vaccination strategies on transmission dynamics of dengue fever: a model-based analysis.

PubMed

Knerer, Gerhart; Currie, Christine S M; Brailsford, Sally C

2015-06-01

Dengue fever is a vector-borne disease prevalent in tropical and subtropical regions. It is an important public health problem with a considerable and often under-valued disease burden in terms of frequency, cost and quality-of-life. Recent literature reviews have documented the development of mathematical models of dengue fever both to identify important characteristics for future model development as well as to assess the impact of dengue control interventions. Such reviews highlight the importance of short-term cross-protection; antibody-dependent enhancement; and seasonality (in terms of both favourable and unfavourable conditions for mosquitoes). The compartmental model extends work by Bartley (2002) and combines the following factors: seasonality, age-structure, consecutive infection by all four serotypes, cross-protection and immune enhancement, as well as combined vector-host transmission. The model is used to represent dengue transmission dynamics using parameters appropriate for Thailand and to assess the potential impact of combined vector-control and vaccination strategies including routine and catch-up vaccination strategies on disease dynamics. When seasonality and temporary cross-protection between serotypes are included, the model is able to approximate the observed incidence of dengue fever in Thailand. We find vaccination to be the most effective single intervention, albeit with imperfect efficacy (30.2 %) and limited duration of protection. However, in combination, control interventions and vaccination exhibit a marked impact on dengue fever transmission. This study shows that an imperfect vaccine can be a useful weapon in reducing disease spread within the community, although it will be most effective when promoted as one of several strategies for combating dengue fever transmission.

Investigation of hydraulic transmission noise sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klop, Richard J.

Advanced hydrostatic transmissions and hydraulic hybrids show potential in new market segments such as commercial vehicles and passenger cars. Such new applications regard low noise generation as a high priority, thus, demanding new quiet hydrostatic transmission designs. In this thesis, the aim is to investigate noise sources of hydrostatic transmissions to discover strategies for designing compact and quiet solutions. A model has been developed to capture the interaction of a pump and motor working in a hydrostatic transmission and to predict overall noise sources. This model allows a designer to compare noise sources for various configurations and to design compact and inherently quiet solutions. The model describes dynamics of the system by coupling lumped parameter pump and motor models with a one-dimensional unsteady compressible transmission line model. The model has been verified with dynamic pressure measurements in the line over a wide operating range for several system structures. Simulation studies were performed illustrating sensitivities of several design variables and the potential of the model to design transmissions with minimal noise sources. A semi-anechoic chamber has been designed and constructed suitable for sound intensity measurements that can be used to derive sound power. Measurements proved the potential to reduce audible noise by predicting and reducing both noise sources. Sound power measurements were conducted on a series hybrid transmission test bench to validate the model and compare predicted noise sources with sound power.

Accounting for Space—Quantification of Cell-To-Cell Transmission Kinetics Using Virus Dynamics Models.

PubMed

Kumberger, Peter; Durso-Cain, Karina; Uprichard, Susan L; Dahari, Harel; Graw, Frederik

2018-04-17

Mathematical models based on ordinary differential equations (ODE) that describe the population dynamics of viruses and infected cells have been an essential tool to characterize and quantify viral infection dynamics. Although an important aspect of viral infection is the dynamics of viral spread, which includes transmission by cell-free virions and direct cell-to-cell transmission, models used so far ignored cell-to-cell transmission completely, or accounted for this process by simple mass-action kinetics between infected and uninfected cells. In this study, we show that the simple mass-action approach falls short when describing viral spread in a spatially-defined environment. Using simulated data, we present a model extension that allows correct quantification of cell-to-cell transmission dynamics within a monolayer of cells. By considering the decreasing proportion of cells that can contribute to cell-to-cell spread with progressing infection, our extension accounts for the transmission dynamics on a single cell level while still remaining applicable to standard population-based experimental measurements. While the ability to infer the proportion of cells infected by either of the transmission modes depends on the viral diffusion rate, the improved estimates obtained using our novel approach emphasize the need to correctly account for spatial aspects when analyzing viral spread.

Analysis of the Effects of Surface Pitting and Wear on the Vibrations of a Gear Transmission System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choy, F. K.; Polyshchuk, V.; Zakrajsek, J. J.; Handschuh, R. F.; Townsend, D. P.

1994-01-01

A comprehensive procedure to simulate and analyze the vibrations in a gear transmission system with surface pitting, 'wear' and partial tooth fracture of the gear teeth is presented. An analytical model was developed where the effects of surface pitting and wear of the gear tooth were simulated by phase and magnitude changes in the gear mesh stiffness. Changes in the gear mesh stiffness were incorporated into each gear-shaft model during the global dynamic simulation of the system. The overall dynamics of the system were evaluated by solving for the transient dynamics of each shaft system simultaneously with the vibration of the gearbox structure. In order to reduce the number of degrees-of-freedom in the system, a modal synthesis procedure was used in the global transient dynamic analysis of the overall transmission system. An FFT procedure was used to transform the averaged time signal into the frequency domain for signature analysis. In addition, the Wigner-Ville distribution was also introduced to examine the gear vibration in the joint time frequency domain for vibration pattern recognition. Experimental results obtained from a gear fatigue test rig at NASA Lewis Research Center were used to evaluate the analytical model.

Progress on Fault Mechanisms for Gear Transmissions in Coal Cutting Machines: From Macro to Nano Models.

PubMed

Jiang, Yu; Zhang, Xiaogang; Zhang, Chao; Li, Zhixiong; Sheng, Chenxing

2017-04-01

Numerical modeling has been recognized as the dispensable tools for mechanical fault mechanism analysis. Techniques, ranging from macro to nano levels, include the finite element modeling boundary element modeling, modular dynamic modeling, nano dynamic modeling and so forth. This work firstly reviewed the progress on the fault mechanism analysis for gear transmissions from the tribological and dynamic aspects. Literature review indicates that the tribological and dynamic properties were separately investigated to explore the fault mechanism in gear transmissions. However, very limited work has been done to address the links between the tribological and dynamic properties and scarce researches have been done for coal cutting machines. For this reason, the tribo-dynamic coupled model was introduced to bridge the gap between the tribological and dynamic models in fault mechanism analysis for gear transmissions in coal cutting machines. The modular dynamic modeling and nano dynamic modeling techniques are expected to establish the links between the tribological and dynamic models. Possible future research directions using the tribo dynamic coupled model were summarized to provide potential references for researchers in the field.

Backward bifurcation and optimal control of Plasmodium Knowlesi malaria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdullahi, Mohammed Baba; Hasan, Yahya Abu; Abdullah, Farah Aini

2014-07-01

A deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of Plasmodium Knowlesi malaria with direct transmission is developed. The model is analyzed using dynamical system techniques and it shows that the backward bifurcation occurs for some range of parameters. The model is extended to assess the impact of time dependent preventive (biological and chemical control) against the mosquitoes and vaccination for susceptible humans, while treatment for infected humans. The existence of optimal control is established analytically by the use of optimal control theory. Numerical simulations of the problem, suggest that applying the four control measure can effectively reduce if not eliminate the spread of Plasmodium Knowlesi in a community.

Dynamical behavior of susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible epidemic model on weighted networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Qingchu; Zhang, Fei

2018-02-01

We study susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible epidemic model in weighted, regular, and random complex networks. We institute a pairwise-type mathematical model with a general transmission rate to evaluate the influence of the link-weight distribution on the spreading process. Furthermore, we develop a dimensionality reduction approach to derive the condition for the contagion outbreak. Finally, we analyze the influence of the heterogeneity of weight distribution on the outbreak condition for the scenario with a linear transmission rate. Our theoretical analysis is in agreement with stochastic simulations, showing that the heterogeneity of link-weight distribution can have a significant effect on the epidemic dynamics.

Systems thinking in combating infectious diseases.

PubMed

Xia, Shang; Zhou, Xiao-Nong; Liu, Jiming

2017-09-11

The transmission of infectious diseases is a dynamic process determined by multiple factors originating from disease pathogens and/or parasites, vector species, and human populations. These factors interact with each other and demonstrate the intrinsic mechanisms of the disease transmission temporally, spatially, and socially. In this article, we provide a comprehensive perspective, named as systems thinking, for investigating disease dynamics and associated impact factors, by means of emphasizing the entirety of a system's components and the complexity of their interrelated behaviors. We further develop the general steps for performing systems approach to tackling infectious diseases in the real-world settings, so as to expand our abilities to understand, predict, and mitigate infectious diseases.

Simulation model of an electrohydraulic-actuated double-clutch transmission vehicle: modelling and system design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schoeftner, J.; Ebner, W.

2017-12-01

Automated and manual transmissions are the main link between engine and powertrain. The technical term when the transmission provides the desired torque during all possible driving conditions is denoted as powertrain matching. Recent developments in the last years show that double-clutch-transmissions (DCTs) are a reasonable compromise in terms of production costs, shifting quality, drivability and fuel efficiency. They have several advantages compared to other automatic transmissions (AT). Most DCTs nowadays consist of a hydraulic actuation control unit, which controls the clutches of the gearbox in order to induce a desired drivetrain torque into the driveline. The main functions of hydraulic systems are manifold: they initiate gear shifts, they provide sufficient oil for lubrication and they control the shift quality by suitably providing a desired oil flow or pressure for the clutch actuation. In this paper, a mathematical model of a passenger car equipped with a DCT is presented. The objective of this contribution is to get an increased understanding for the dynamics of the hydraulic circuit and its coupling to the vehicle drivetrain. The simulation model consists of a hydraulic and a mechanical domain: the hydraulic actuation circuit is described by nonlinear differential equations and includes the dynamics of the line pressure and the proportional valve, as well as the influence of the pressure reducing valve, pipe resistances and accumulator dynamics. The drivetrain with its gear ratios, moments of inertia, torsional stiffness of the rotating shafts and a simple longitudinal vehicle model represent the mechanical domain. The link between hydraulic and mechanical domain is given by the clutch, which combines hydraulic equations and Newton's laws. The presented mathematical model may not only be used as a simulation model for developing the transmission control software, it may also serve as a virtual layout for the design process phase. At the end of this contribution a parametric study shows the influence of the mechanical components, the accumulator and the temperature of the oil.

Modelling the transmission of healthcare associated infections: a systematic review

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Dynamic transmission models are increasingly being used to improve our understanding of the epidemiology of healthcare-associated infections (HCAI). However, there has been no recent comprehensive review of this emerging field. This paper summarises how mathematical models have informed the field of HCAI and how methods have developed over time. Methods MEDLINE, EMBASE, Scopus, CINAHL plus and Global Health databases were systematically searched for dynamic mathematical models of HCAI transmission and/or the dynamics of antimicrobial resistance in healthcare settings. Results In total, 96 papers met the eligibility criteria. The main research themes considered were evaluation of infection control effectiveness (64%), variability in transmission routes (7%), the impact of movement patterns between healthcare institutes (5%), the development of antimicrobial resistance (3%), and strain competitiveness or co-colonisation with different strains (3%). Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus was the most commonly modelled HCAI (34%), followed by vancomycin resistant enterococci (16%). Other common HCAIs, e.g. Clostridum difficile, were rarely investigated (3%). Very few models have been published on HCAI from low or middle-income countries. The first HCAI model has looked at antimicrobial resistance in hospital settings using compartmental deterministic approaches. Stochastic models (which include the role of chance in the transmission process) are becoming increasingly common. Model calibration (inference of unknown parameters by fitting models to data) and sensitivity analysis are comparatively uncommon, occurring in 35% and 36% of studies respectively, but their application is increasing. Only 5% of models compared their predictions to external data. Conclusions Transmission models have been used to understand complex systems and to predict the impact of control policies. Methods have generally improved, with an increased use of stochastic models, and more advanced methods for formal model fitting and sensitivity analyses. Insights gained from these models could be broadened to a wider range of pathogens and settings. Improvements in the availability of data and statistical methods could enhance the predictive ability of models. PMID:23809195

A weather-driven model of malaria transmission.

PubMed

Hoshen, Moshe B; Morse, Andrew P

2004-09-06

Climate is a major driving force behind malaria transmission and climate data are often used to account for the spatial, seasonal and interannual variation in malaria transmission. This paper describes a mathematical-biological model of the parasite dynamics, comprising both the weather-dependent within-vector stages and the weather-independent within-host stages. Numerical evaluations of the model in both time and space show that it qualitatively reconstructs the prevalence of infection. A process-based modelling structure has been developed that may be suitable for the simulation of malaria forecasts based on seasonal weather forecasts.

Mapping the dynamics of force transduction at cell–cell junctions of epithelial clusters

PubMed Central

Ng, Mei Rosa; Besser, Achim; Brugge, Joan S; Danuser, Gaudenz

2014-01-01

Force transduction at cell-cell adhesions regulates tissue development, maintenance and adaptation. We developed computational and experimental approaches to quantify, with both sub-cellular and multi-cellular resolution, the dynamics of force transmission in cell clusters. Applying this technology to spontaneously-forming adherent epithelial cell clusters, we found that basal force fluctuations were coupled to E-cadherin localization at the level of individual cell-cell junctions. At the multi-cellular scale, cell-cell force exchange depended on the cell position within a cluster, and was adaptive to reconfigurations due to cell divisions or positional rearrangements. Importantly, force transmission through a cell required coordinated modulation of cell-matrix adhesion and actomyosin contractility in the cell and its neighbors. These data provide insights into mechanisms that could control mechanical stress homeostasis in dynamic epithelial tissues, and highlight our methods as a resource for the study of mechanotransduction in cell-cell adhesions. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.03282.001 PMID:25479385

Evolution and Use of Dynamic Transmission Models for Measles and Rubella Risk and Policy Analysis.

PubMed

Thompson, Kimberly M

2016-07-01

The devastation caused by periodic measles outbreaks motivated efforts over more than a century to mathematically model measles disease and transmission. Following the identification of rubella, which similarly presents with fever and rash and causes congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) in infants born to women first infected with rubella early in pregnancy, modelers also began to characterize rubella disease and transmission. Despite the relatively large literature, no comprehensive review to date provides an overview of dynamic transmission models for measles and rubella developed to support risk and policy analysis. This systematic review of the literature identifies quantitative measles and/or rubella dynamic transmission models and characterizes key insights relevant for prospective modeling efforts. Overall, measles and rubella represent some of the relatively simplest viruses to model due to their ability to impact only humans and the apparent life-long immunity that follows survival of infection and/or protection by vaccination, although complexities arise due to maternal antibodies and heterogeneity in mixing and some models considered potential waning immunity and reinfection. This review finds significant underreporting of measles and rubella infections and widespread recognition of the importance of achieving and maintaining high population immunity to stop and prevent measles and rubella transmission. The significantly lower transmissibility of rubella compared to measles implies that all countries could eliminate rubella and CRS by using combination of measles- and rubella-containing vaccines (MRCVs) as they strive to meet regional measles elimination goals, which leads to the recommendation of changing the formulation of national measles-containing vaccines from measles only to MRCV as the standard of care. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Intergenerational Transmission of Adaptive Functioning: A Test of the Interactionist Model of SES and Human Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schofield, Thomas J; Martin, Monica J.; Conger, Katherine J.; Neppl, Tricia M.; Donnellan, M. Brent; Conger, Rand D.

2011-01-01

The interactionist model (IM) of human development (R. D. Conger & M. B. Donellan, 2007) proposes that the association between socioeconomic status (SES) and human development involves a dynamic interplay that includes both social causation (SES influences human development) and social selection (individual characteristics affect SES). Using a…

Environmentally-driven ensemble forecasts of dengue fever

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamana, T. K.; Shaman, J. L.

2017-12-01

Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne viral disease prevalent in the tropics and subtropics, with an estimated 2.5 billion people at risk of transmission. In many areas where dengue is found, disease transmission is seasonal but prone to high inter-annual variability with occasional severe epidemics. Predicting and preparing for periods of higher than average transmission remains a significant public health challenge. Recently, we developed a framework for forecasting dengue incidence using an dynamical model of disease transmission coupled with observational data of dengue cases using data-assimilation methods. Here, we investigate the use of environmental data to drive the disease transmission model. We produce retrospective forecasts of the timing and severity of dengue outbreaks, and quantify forecast predictive accuracy.

Exploring Migratory Dynamics on HIV Transmission: The Case of Mexicans in New York City and Puebla, Mexico

PubMed Central

Guilamo-Ramos, Vincent; McCarthy, Katharine; Muñoz-Laboy, Miguel A.; de Lourdes Rosas López, Maria

2014-01-01

Migration and population movement are increasingly viewed as important factors associated with HIV transmission risk. With growing awareness of the potential impact of migration on HIV transmission, several perspectives have emerged that posit differing dynamics of risk. We considered available data on the role of migration on HIV transmission among Mexican migrants in New York City and Puebla, Mexico. Specifically, we examined 3 distinct models of migratory dynamics of HIV transmission—namely, the structural model, the local contextual model, and the interplay model. In doing so, we reframed current public health perspectives on the role of migration on HIV transmission. PMID:24825203

Optimal control of HIV/AIDS dynamic: Education and treatment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sule, Amiru; Abdullah, Farah Aini

2014-07-01

A mathematical model which describes the transmission dynamics of HIV/AIDS is developed. The optimal control representing education and treatment for this model is explored. The existence of optimal Control is established analytically by the use of optimal control theory. Numerical simulations suggest that education and treatment for the infected has a positive impact on HIV/AIDS control.

Developing a mathematical model for the evaluation of the potential impact of a partially efficacious vaccine on the transmission dynamics of Schistosoma mansoni in human communities.

PubMed

Stylianou, Andria; Hadjichrysanthou, Christoforos; Truscott, James E; Anderson, Roy M

2017-06-17

There is currently no vaccine available to protect humans against infection with the schistosome digenean parasites, although candidate formulations for Schistosoma mansoni are under trial in animal models, including rodents and primates. Current strategies for the control of infection are based on mass drug administration (MDA) targeted at school-aged children of age 5 to 14 years. This approach is unlikely to eliminate exposure to infection except in settings with very low levels of transmission. A deterministic mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of the parasite is described and employed to investigate community level outcomes. The model is defined to encompass two different delivery strategies for the vaccination of the population, namely, infant (cohort) and mass vaccination. However, in this paper the focus is on vaccination delivered in a cohort immunisation programme where infants are immunised within the first year of life before acquiring infection. An analysis of the parasite's transmission dynamics following the administration of a partially protective vaccine is presented. The vaccine acts on parasite mortality, fecundity or/and establishment. A vaccine with an efficacy of over 60% can interrupt transmission in low and moderate transmission settings. In higher transmission intensity areas, greater efficacy or higher infant vaccination coverage is required. Candidate vaccines that act either on parasite mortality, fecundity or establishment within the human host, can be similarly effective. In all cases, however, the duration of protection is important. The community level impact of vaccines with all modes of action, declines if vaccine protection is of a very short duration. However, durations of protection of 5-10 years or more are sufficient, with high coverage and efficacy levels, to halt transmission. The time taken to break transmission may be 18 years or more after the start of the cohort vaccination, depending on the intensity of the transmission in a defined location. The analyses provide support for the proposition that even a partially efficacious vaccine could be of great value in reducing the burden of schistosome infections in endemic regions and hopefully could provide a template for the elimination of parasite transmission.

Analysis of longitudinal multivariate outcome data from couples cohort studies: application to HPV transmission dynamics

PubMed Central

Kong, Xiangrong; Wang, Mei-Cheng; Gray, Ronald

2014-01-01

We consider a specific situation of correlated data where multiple outcomes are repeatedly measured on each member of a couple. Such multivariate longitudinal data from couples may exhibit multi-faceted correlations which can be further complicated if there are polygamous partnerships. An example is data from cohort studies on human papillomavirus (HPV) transmission dynamics in heterosexual couples. HPV is a common sexually transmitted disease with 14 known oncogenic types causing anogenital cancers. The binary outcomes on the multiple types measured in couples over time may introduce inter-type, intra-couple, and temporal correlations. Simple analysis using generalized estimating equations or random effects models lacks interpretability and cannot fully utilize the available information. We developed a hybrid modeling strategy using Markov transition models together with pairwise composite likelihood for analyzing such data. The method can be used to identify risk factors associated with HPV transmission and persistence, estimate difference in risks between male-to-female and female-to-male HPV transmission, compare type-specific transmission risks within couples, and characterize the inter-type and intra-couple associations. Applying the method to HPV couple data collected in a Ugandan male circumcision (MC) trial, we assessed the effect of MC and the role of gender on risks of HPV transmission and persistence. PMID:26195849

Adaptive Modulation for DFIG and STATCOM With High-Voltage Direct Current Transmission.

PubMed

Tang, Yufei; He, Haibo; Ni, Zhen; Wen, Jinyu; Huang, Tingwen

2016-08-01

This paper develops an adaptive modulation approach for power system control based on the approximate/adaptive dynamic programming method, namely, the goal representation heuristic dynamic programming (GrHDP). In particular, we focus on the fault recovery problem of a doubly fed induction generator (DFIG)-based wind farm and a static synchronous compensator (STATCOM) with high-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission. In this design, the online GrHDP-based controller provides three adaptive supplementary control signals to the DFIG controller, STATCOM controller, and HVDC rectifier controller, respectively. The mechanism is to observe the system states and their derivatives and then provides supplementary control to the plant according to the utility function. With the GrHDP design, the controller can adaptively develop an internal goal representation signal according to the observed power system states, therefore, to achieve more effective learning and modulating. Our control approach is validated on a wind power integrated benchmark system with two areas connected by HVDC transmission lines. Compared with the classical direct HDP and proportional integral control, our GrHDP approach demonstrates the improved transient stability under system faults. Moreover, experiments under different system operating conditions with signal transmission delays are also carried out to further verify the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed approach.

Epigenetic Mechanisms and the Transgenerational Effects of Maternal Care

PubMed Central

Champagne, Frances A.

2009-01-01

The transmission of traits across generations has typically been attributed to the inheritance by offspring of genomic information from parental generations. However, recent evidence suggests that epigenetic mechanisms are capable of mediating this type of transmission. In the case of maternal care, there is evidence for the behavioral transmission of postpartum behavior from mothers to female offspring. The neuroendocrine and molecular mediators of this transmission have been explored in rats and implicate estrogen-oxytocin interactions and the differential methylation of hypothalamic estrogen receptors. These maternal effects can influence multiple aspects of neurobiology and behavior of offspring and this particular mode of inheritance is dynamic in response to environmental variation. In this review, evidence for the generational transmission of maternal care and the mechanisms underlying this transmission will be discussed as will the implications of this inheritance system for offspring development and for the transmission of environmental information from parents to offspring. PMID:18462782

Climatic and evolutionary drivers of phase shifts in the plague epidemics of colonial India.

PubMed

Lewnard, Joseph A; Townsend, Jeffrey P

2016-12-20

Immune heterogeneity in wild host populations indicates that disease-mediated selection is common in nature. However, the underlying dynamic feedbacks involving the ecology of disease transmission, evolutionary processes, and their interaction with environmental drivers have proven challenging to characterize. Plague presents an optimal system for interrogating such couplings: Yersinia pestis transmission exerts intense selective pressure driving the local persistence of disease resistance among its wildlife hosts in endemic areas. Investigations undertaken in colonial India after the introduction of plague in 1896 suggest that, only a decade after plague arrived, a heritable, plague-resistant phenotype had become prevalent among commensal rats of cities undergoing severe plague epidemics. To understand the possible evolutionary basis of these observations, we developed a mathematical model coupling environmentally forced plague dynamics with evolutionary selection of rats, capitalizing on extensive archival data from Indian Plague Commission investigations. Incorporating increased plague resistance among rats as a consequence of intense natural selection permits the model to reproduce observed changes in seasonal epidemic patterns in several cities and capture experimentally observed associations between climate and flea population dynamics in India. Our model results substantiate Victorian era claims of host evolution based on experimental observations of plague resistance and reveal the buffering effect of such evolution against environmental drivers of transmission. Our analysis shows that historical datasets can yield powerful insights into the transmission dynamics of reemerging disease agents with which we have limited contemporary experience to guide quantitative modeling and inference.

Climatic and evolutionary drivers of phase shifts in the plague epidemics of colonial India

PubMed Central

Lewnard, Joseph A.

2016-01-01

Immune heterogeneity in wild host populations indicates that disease-mediated selection is common in nature. However, the underlying dynamic feedbacks involving the ecology of disease transmission, evolutionary processes, and their interaction with environmental drivers have proven challenging to characterize. Plague presents an optimal system for interrogating such couplings: Yersinia pestis transmission exerts intense selective pressure driving the local persistence of disease resistance among its wildlife hosts in endemic areas. Investigations undertaken in colonial India after the introduction of plague in 1896 suggest that, only a decade after plague arrived, a heritable, plague-resistant phenotype had become prevalent among commensal rats of cities undergoing severe plague epidemics. To understand the possible evolutionary basis of these observations, we developed a mathematical model coupling environmentally forced plague dynamics with evolutionary selection of rats, capitalizing on extensive archival data from Indian Plague Commission investigations. Incorporating increased plague resistance among rats as a consequence of intense natural selection permits the model to reproduce observed changes in seasonal epidemic patterns in several cities and capture experimentally observed associations between climate and flea population dynamics in India. Our model results substantiate Victorian era claims of host evolution based on experimental observations of plague resistance and reveal the buffering effect of such evolution against environmental drivers of transmission. Our analysis shows that historical datasets can yield powerful insights into the transmission dynamics of reemerging disease agents with which we have limited contemporary experience to guide quantitative modeling and inference. PMID:27791071

Vibration transmission through rolling element bearings in geared rotor system, part 1. Ph.D. Thesis Final Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Singh, Rajendra; Lim, Teik Chin

1989-01-01

A mathematical model is proposed to examine the vibration transmission through rolling element bearings in geared rotor systems. Current bearing models, based on either ideal boundary conditions for the shaft or purely translational stiffness element description, cannot explain how the vibratory motion may be transmitted from the rotating shaft to the casing. This study clarifies this issue qualitatively and quantitatively by developing a comprehensive bearing stiffness matrix of dimension 6 model for the precision rolling element bearings from basic principles. The proposed bearing formulation is extended to analyze the overall geared rotor system dynamics including casing and mounts. The bearing stiffness matrix is included in discrete system models using lumped parameter and/or dynamic finite element techniques. Eigensolution and forced harmonic response due to rotating mass unbalance or kinematic transmission error excitation for a number of examples are computed.

Optical diode effect at spin-wave excitations in the room-temperature multiferroic BiFeO 3.

DOE PAGES

Kezsmarki, I.; Nagel, U.; Bordacs, S.; ...

2015-09-15

The ability to read and write a magnetic state current-free by an electric voltage would provide a huge technological advantage. Dynamic or optical ME effects are equally interesting, because they give rise to unidirectional light propagation as recently observed in low-temperature multiferroics. This phenomenon, if realized at room temperature, would allow the development of optical diodes which transmit unpolarized light in one, but not in the opposite, direction. Here, we report strong unidirectional transmission in the room-temperature multiferroic BiFeO 3 over the gigahertz-terahertz frequency range. The supporting theory attributes the observed unidirectional transmission to the spin-current-driven dynamic ME effect. Ourmore » findings are an important step toward the realization of optical diodes, supplemented by the ability to switch the transmission direction with a magnetic or electric field.« less

Transmission of vibration through gloves: effects of material thickness.

PubMed

Md Rezali, Khairil Anas; Griffin, Michael J

2016-08-01

It might be assumed that increasing the thickness of a glove would reduce the vibration transmitted to the hand. Three material samples from an anti-vibration glove were stacked to produce three thicknesses: 6.4, 12.8 and 19.2 mm. The dynamic stiffnesses of all three thicknesses, the apparent mass at the palm and the finger and the transmission of vibration to the palm and finger were measured. At frequencies from 20 to 350 Hz, the material reduced vibration at the palm but increased vibration at the finger. Increased thickness reduced vibration at the palm but increased vibration at the finger. The measured transmissibilities could be predicted from the material dynamic stiffness and the apparent mass of the palm and finger. Reducing the dynamic stiffness of glove material may increase or decrease the transmission of vibration, depending on the material, the frequency of vibration and the location of measurement (palm or finger). Practitioner Summary: Transmission of vibration through gloves depends on the dynamic response of the hand and the dynamic stiffness of glove material, which depends on material thickness. Measuring the transmission of vibration through gloves to the palm of the hand gives a misleading indication of the transmission of vibration to the fingers.

The Epidemiological Characteristics and Dynamic Transmission of Dengue in China, 2013

PubMed Central

lu, Liang; Bi, Peng; Lv, Ming; Liu, Qiyong

2016-01-01

Background There was a dengue epidemic in several regions of China in 2013. No study has explored the dynamics of dengue transmission between different geographical locations with dengue outbreaks in China. The purpose of the study is to analyze the epidemiological characteristics and to explore the dynamic transmission of dengue in China, 2013. Methodology and Principal Findings Records of dengue cases of 2013 were obtained from the China Notifiable Disease Surveillance System. Full E-gene sequences of dengue virus detected from the outbreak regions of China were download from GenBank. Geographical Information System and heatmaps were used to describe the epidemiological characteristics. Maximum Likelihood phylogenetic and Bayesian phylogeographic analyses were conducted to explore the dengue dynamic transmission. Yunnan Province and Guangdong Province had the highest imported cases in the 2013 epidemic. In the locations with local dengue transmission, most of imported cases occurred from June to November 2013 while local dengue cases developed from July to December, 2013. There were significant variations for the incidences of dengue, in terms of age distributions, among different geographic locations. However, gender differences were identified in Guangzhou, Foshan and Xishuangbanna. DENV 1–3 were detected in all locations with the disease outbreaks. Some genotypes were detected in more than one locations and more than one genotypes have been detected in several locations. The dengue viruses introduced to outbreak areas were predominantly from Southeast Asia. In Guangdong Province, the phylogeographical results indicated that dengue viruses of DENV 1 were transmitted to neighboring cities Foshan and Zhongshan from Guangzhou city, and then transmitted to Jiangmen city. The virus in DENV 3 was introduced to Guangzhou city, Guangdong Province from Xishuangbanna prefecture, Yunnan Province. Conclusions Repeated dengue virus introductions from Southeast Asia and subsequent domestic dengue transmission within different regions may have contributed to the dengue epidemics in China, 2013. PMID:27820815

Interacting Effects of Newcastle Disease Transmission and Illegal Trade on a Wild Population of White-Winged Parakeets in Peru: A Modeling Approach

PubMed Central

Daut, Elizabeth F.; Lahodny, Glenn; Peterson, Markus J.; Ivanek, Renata

2016-01-01

Illegal wildlife-pet trade can threaten wildlife populations directly from overharvest, but also indirectly as a pathway for introduction of infectious diseases. This study evaluated consequences of a hypothetical introduction of Newcastle disease (ND) into a wild population of Peru’s most trafficked psittacine, the white-winged parakeet (Brotogeris versicolurus), through release of infected confiscated individuals. We developed two mathematical models that describe ND transmission and the influence of illegal harvest in a homogeneous (model 1) and age-structured population of parakeets (model 2). Infection transmission dynamics and harvest were consistent for all individuals in model 1, which rendered it mathematically more tractable compared to the more complex, age-structured model 2 that separated the host population into juveniles and adults. We evaluated the interaction of ND transmission and harvest through changes in the basic reproduction number (R0) and short-term host population dynamics. Our findings demonstrated that ND introduction would likely provoke considerable disease-related mortality, up to 24% population decline in two years, but high harvest rates would dampen the magnitude of the outbreak. Model 2 produced moderate differences in disease dynamics compared to model 1 (R0 = 3.63 and 2.66, respectively), but highlighted the importance of adult disease dynamics in diminishing the epidemic potential. Therefore, we suggest that future studies should use a more realistic, age-structured model. Finally, for the presumptive risk that illegal trade of white-winged parakeets could introduce ND into wild populations, our results suggest that while high harvest rates may have a protective effect on the population by reducing virus transmission, the combined effects of high harvest and disease-induced mortality may threaten population survival. These results capture the complexity and consequences of the interaction between ND transmission and harvest in a wild parrot population and highlight the importance of preventing illegal trade. PMID:26816214

Climate and dengue transmission: evidence and implications.

PubMed

Morin, Cory W; Comrie, Andrew C; Ernst, Kacey

2013-01-01

Climate influences dengue ecology by affecting vector dynamics, agent development, and mosquito/human interactions. Although these relationships are known, the impact climate change will have on transmission is unclear. Climate-driven statistical and process-based models are being used to refine our knowledge of these relationships and predict the effects of projected climate change on dengue fever occurrence, but results have been inconsistent. We sought to identify major climatic influences on dengue virus ecology and to evaluate the ability of climate-based dengue models to describe associations between climate and dengue, simulate outbreaks, and project the impacts of climate change. We reviewed the evidence for direct and indirect relationships between climate and dengue generated from laboratory studies, field studies, and statistical analyses of associations between vectors, dengue fever incidence, and climate conditions. We assessed the potential contribution of climate-driven, process-based dengue models and provide suggestions to improve their performance. Relationships between climate variables and factors that influence dengue transmission are complex. A climate variable may increase dengue transmission potential through one aspect of the system while simultaneously decreasing transmission potential through another. This complexity may at least partly explain inconsistencies in statistical associations between dengue and climate. Process-based models can account for the complex dynamics but often omit important aspects of dengue ecology, notably virus development and host-species interactions. Synthesizing and applying current knowledge of climatic effects on all aspects of dengue virus ecology will help direct future research and enable better projections of climate change effects on dengue incidence.

Environmental transmission of Mycobacterium ulcerans drives dynamics of Buruli ulcer in endemic regions of Cameroon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garchitorena, Andrés; Ngonghala, Calistus N.; Texier, Gaëtan; Landier, Jordi; Eyangoh, Sara; Bonds, Matthew H.; Guégan, Jean-François; Roche, Benjamin

2015-12-01

Buruli Ulcer is a devastating skin disease caused by the pathogen Mycobacterium ulcerans. Emergence and distribution of Buruli ulcer cases is clearly linked to aquatic ecosystems, but the specific route of transmission of M. ulcerans to humans remains unclear. Relying on the most detailed field data in space and time on M. ulcerans and Buruli ulcer available today, we assess the relative contribution of two potential transmission routes -environmental and water bug transmission- to the dynamics of Buruli ulcer in two endemic regions of Cameroon. The temporal dynamics of Buruli ulcer incidence are explained by estimating rates of different routes of transmission in mathematical models. Independently, we also estimate statistical models of the different transmission pathways on the spatial distribution of Buruli ulcer. The results of these two independent approaches are corroborative and suggest that environmental transmission pathways explain the temporal and spatial patterns of Buruli ulcer in our endemic areas better than the water bug transmission.

Dynamic analysis of spiral bevel and hypoid gears with high-order transmission errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, J. J.; Shi, Z. H.; Zhang, H.; Li, T. X.; Nie, S. W.; Wei, B. Y.

2018-03-01

A new gear surface modification methodology based on curvature synthesis is proposed in this study to improve the transmission performance. The generated high-order transmission error (TE) for spiral bevel and hypoid gears is proved to reduce the vibration of geared-rotor system. The method is comprised of the following steps: Firstly, the fully conjugate gear surfaces with pinion flank modified according to the predesigned relative transmission movement are established based on curvature correction. Secondly, a 14-DOF geared-rotor system model considering backlash nonlinearity is used to evaluate the effect of different orders of TE on the dynamic performance a hypoid gear transmission system. For case study, numerical simulation is performed to illustrate the dynamic response of hypoid gear pair with parabolic, fourth-order and sixth-order transmission error derived. The results show that the parabolic TE curve has higher peak to peak amplitude compared to the other two types of TE. Thus, the excited dynamic response also shows larger amplitude at response peaks. Dynamic responses excited by fourth and sixth order TE also demonstrate distinct response components due to their different TE period which is expected to generate different sound quality or other acoustic characteristics.

Deciphering the physics and chemistry of perovskites with transmission electron microscopy.

PubMed

Polking, Mark J

2016-03-28

Perovskite oxides exhibit rich structural complexity and a broad range of functional properties, including ferroelectricity, ferromagnetism, and superconductivity. The development of aberration correction for the transmission electron microscope and concurrent progress in electron spectroscopy, electron holography, and other techniques has fueled rapid progress in the understanding of the physics and chemistry of these materials. New techniques based on the transmission electron microscope are first surveyed, and the applications of these techniques for the study of the structure, chemistry, electrostatics, and dynamics of perovskite oxides are then explored in detail, with a particular focus on ferroelectric materials.

A weather-driven model of malaria transmission

PubMed Central

Hoshen, Moshe B; Morse, Andrew P

2004-01-01

Background Climate is a major driving force behind malaria transmission and climate data are often used to account for the spatial, seasonal and interannual variation in malaria transmission. Methods This paper describes a mathematical-biological model of the parasite dynamics, comprising both the weather-dependent within-vector stages and the weather-independent within-host stages. Results Numerical evaluations of the model in both time and space show that it qualitatively reconstructs the prevalence of infection. Conclusion A process-based modelling structure has been developed that may be suitable for the simulation of malaria forecasts based on seasonal weather forecasts. PMID:15350206

Dynamics of Multistage Gear Transmission with Effects of Gearbox Vibrations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choy, F. K.; Tu, Y. K.; Zakrajsek, J. J.; Townsend, Dennis P.

1990-01-01

A comprehensive approach is presented in analyzing the dynamic behavior of multistage gear transmission systems with the effects of gearbox induced vibrations and mass imbalances of the rotor. The modal method, with undamped frequencies and planar mode shapes, is used to reduce the degrees of freedom of the gear system for time-transient dynamic analysis. Both the lateral and torsional vibration modes of each rotor-bearing-gear stage as well as the interstage vibrational characteristics are coupled together through localized gear mesh tooth interactions. In addition, gearbox vibrations are also coupled to the rotor-bearing-gear system dynamics through bearing support forces between the rotor and the gearbox. Transient and steady state dynamics of lateral and torsional vibrations of the geared system are examined in both time and frequency domains to develop interpretations of the overall modal dynamic characteristics under various operating conditions. A typical three-stage geared system is used as an example. Effects of mass imbalance and gearbox vibrations on the system dynamic behavior are presented in terms of modal excitation functions for both lateral and torsional vibrations. Operational characteristics and conclusions are drawn from the results presented.

On the dynamic response of pressure transmission lines in the research of helium-charged free piston Stirling engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, Eric L.; Dudenhoefer, James E.

1989-01-01

In free piston Stirling engine research the integrity of both amplitude and phase of the dynamic pressure measurements is critical to the characterization of cycle dynamics and thermodynamics. It is therefore necessary to appreciate all possible sources of signal distortion when designing pressure measurement systems for this type of research. The signal distortion inherent to pressure transmission lines is discussed. Based on results from classical analysis, guidelines are formulated to describe the dynamic response properties of a volume-terminated transmission tube for applications involving helium-charged free piston Stirling engines. The scope and limitations of the dynamic response analysis are considered.

Dynamic sex roles among men who have sex with men and transmissions from primary HIV infection.

PubMed

Alam, Shah Jamal; Romero-Severson, Ethan; Kim, Jong-Hoon; Emond, Gilbert; Koopman, James S

2010-09-01

Previous studies estimating the fraction of transmissions from persons with primary HIV have not focused on the effects of switching sex role in male homosexual populations. Such behavioral fluctuations can increase the contribution of primary HIV in the overall population. We modeled HIV transmission with 8 compartments defined by 4 behavioral groups, with different anal-insertive and anal-receptive combinations, and 2 stages of infection. We explored the effects of fluctuating behavioral categories on endemic prevalence and the fraction of transmissions from primary HIV. We varied transition rates to develop the theory on how behavioral fluctuation affects infection patterns, and we used the transition rates in a Netherlands cohort to assess overall effects in a real setting. The dynamics of change in behavior-group status over time observed in the Netherlands cohort amplifies the prevalence of infection and the fraction of transmissions from primary HIV, resulting in the highest proportions of transmissions being from people with primary HIV. Fluctuation between dual- or receptive-role periods and no-anal-sex periods mainly determines this amplification. In terms of the total transmissions, the dual-role risk group is dominant. Fluctuation between insertive and receptive roles decreases the fraction of transmissions from primary HIV, but such fluctuation is infrequently observed. The fraction of transmissions from primary HIV is considerably raised by fluctuations in insertive and receptive anal sex behaviors. This increase occurs even when primary HIV or later infection status does not influence risk behavior. Thus, it is not simply biology but also behavior patterns and social contexts that determine the fraction of transmissions from primary HIV. Moreover, each primary HIV transmission has a larger population effect than each later infection transmission because the men to whom one transmits from primary HIV carry on more chains of transmissions than the men to whom one transmits later in infection. Reducing transmissions from primary HIV should be a primary focus of HIV control efforts.

Modeling the Epidemiology of Cholera to Prevent Disease Transmission in Developing Countries

PubMed Central

MUKANDAVIRE, ZINDOGA; MORRIS, J. GLENN

2015-01-01

Cholera remains an important global cause of morbidity and mortality, which is capable of causing periodic epidemic disease. A number of mathematical models have been developed to help in understanding the dynamics of cholera outbreaks and for use as a tool in planning interventions, including vaccination campaigns. We have explored the utility of models in assessing the spread of cholera in the recent epidemics in Zimbabwe and Haiti. In both instances, a mathematical model was formulated and fitted to cumulative cholera cases to estimate the basic reproductive number ℜ0, and the partial reproductive numbers reflecting potential differences in environmental-to-human versus human-to-human transmission were quantified. In Zimbabwe, estimated ℜ0 for the epidemic using aggregated data at the national level was 1.15; in Haiti, it was 1.55. However, when calculated at a provincial/departmental level, estimated basic reproductive numbers were highly heterogeneous, with a range of 1.11 to 2.72 in Zimbabwe and 1.06 to 2.63 in Haiti. Our models suggest that the underlying patterns of cholera transmission varied widely from region to region, with a corresponding variation in the amenability of outbreaks to control measures such as immunization. These data underscore the heterogeneity of transmission dynamics, potentially linked to differences in environment, socio-economic conditions, and cultural practices. They also highlight the potential utility of these types of models in guiding development of public health intervention strategies. PMID:26185087

Research on investment decisions model of trans-regional transmission network based on the theory of NPV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zai, Wenjiao; Wang, Bo; Liu, Jichun; Shi, Haobo; Zeng, Pingliang

2018-02-01

The investment decision model of trans-regional transmission network in the context of Global Energy Internet was studied in this paper. The key factors affecting the trans-regional transmission network investment income: the income tax rate, the loan interest rate, the expected return on investment of the investment subject, the per capita GDP and so on were considered in the transmission network investment income model. First, according to the principle of system dynamics, the causality diagram of key factors was constructed. Then, the dynamic model of transmission investment decision was established. A case study of the power transmission network between China and Mongolia, through the simulation of the system dynamic model, the influence of the above key factors on the investment returns was analyzed, and the feasibility and effectiveness of the model was proved.

Dynamic facade module prototype development for solar radiation prevention in high rise building

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sega Sufia Purnama, Muhammad; Sutanto, Dalhar

2018-03-01

Solar radiation is an aspect that high rise building must avoid. The problem is, if high rise building facade can’t overcome, the solar thermal will come in the building, and its affects on the increasing of room temperature above comfort range. A type of additional facade element that could solve solar thermal in high rise building is adding a sun shading. A dynamic facade is a shade plane in high rise building that can moved or changed on outside condition such as solar movement and intensity. This research will discuss the dynamic facade module prototype development in high rise building in Jakarta. This research will be finish through some step. (1) Static shading shadow simulation. (2) Dynamic facade concept design development. (3) Dynamic shading shadow simulation. (4) Making of dynamic facade module prototype. (5) Field test for the dynamic facade module prototype. The dynamic facade in Jakarta case will be effective to solve solar transmission in high rise building rather than static facade.

Transmission of vibration through glove materials: effects of contact force.

PubMed

Md Rezali, Khairil Anas; Griffin, Michael J

2018-04-26

This study investigated effects of applied force on the apparent mass of the hand, the dynamic stiffness of glove materials and the transmission of vibration through gloves to the hand. For 10 subjects, 3 glove materials and 3 contact forces, apparent masses and glove transmissibilities were measured at the palm and at a finger at frequencies in the range 5-300 Hz. The dynamic stiffnesses of the materials were also measured. With increasing force, the dynamic stiffnesses of the materials increased, the apparent mass at the palm increased at frequencies greater than the resonance and the apparent mass at the finger increased at low frequencies. The effects of force on transmissibilities therefore differed between materials and depended on vibration frequency, but changes in apparent mass and dynamic stiffness had predictable effects on material transmissibility. Depending on the glove material, the transmission of vibration through a glove can be increased or decreased when increasing the applied force. Practitioner summary: Increasing the contact force (i.e. push force or grip force) can increase or decrease the transmission of vibration through a glove. The vibration transmissibilities of gloves should be assessed with a range of contact forces to understand their likely influence on the exposure of the hand and fingers to vibration.

Estimating malaria transmission from humans to mosquitoes in a noisy landscape

PubMed Central

Reiner, Robert C.; Guerra, Carlos; Donnelly, Martin J.; Bousema, Teun; Drakeley, Chris; Smith, David L.

2015-01-01

A basic quantitative understanding of malaria transmission requires measuring the probability a mosquito becomes infected after feeding on a human. Parasite prevalence in mosquitoes is highly age-dependent, and the unknown age-structure of fluctuating mosquito populations impedes estimation. Here, we simulate mosquito infection dynamics, where mosquito recruitment is modelled seasonally with fractional Brownian noise, and we develop methods for estimating mosquito infection rates. We find that noise introduces bias, but the magnitude of the bias depends on the ‘colour' of the noise. Some of these problems can be overcome by increasing the sampling frequency, but estimates of transmission rates (and estimated reductions in transmission) are most accurate and precise if they combine parity, oocyst rates and sporozoite rates. These studies provide a basis for evaluating the adequacy of various entomological sampling procedures for measuring malaria parasite transmission from humans to mosquitoes and for evaluating the direct transmission-blocking effects of a vaccine. PMID:26400195

Development of Matlab Simulink model for dynamics analysis of passive suspension system for lightweight vehicle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jamali, M. S.; Ismail, K. A.; Taha, Z.; Aiman, M. F.

2017-10-01

In designing suitable isolators to reduce unwanted vibration in vehicles, the response from a mathematical model which characterizes the transmissibility ratio of the input and output of the vehicle is required. In this study, a Matlab Simulink model is developed to study the dynamic behaviour performance of passive suspension system for a lightweight electric vehicle. The Simulink model is based on the two degrees of freedom system quarter car model. The model is compared to the theoretical plots of the transmissibility ratios between the amplitudes of the displacements and accelerations of the sprung and unsprung masses to the amplitudes of the ground, against the frequencies at different damping values. It was found that the frequency responses obtained from the theoretical calculations and from the Simulink simulation is comparable to each other. Hence, the model may be extended to a full vehicle model.

Time variant analysis of large scale constrained rotorcraft systems dynamics - An exploitation of IBM-3090 vector-processor's pipe-lining feature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Amirouche, F. M. L.; Shareef, N. H.; Xie, M.

1991-01-01

A generalized algorithmic procedure is presented for handling the constraints in transmissions, which are treated as a multibody system of interconnected rigid/flexible bodies. The type of constraints are classified based on the interconnection of the bodies, assuming one or more points of contact to exist between them. The method is explained through flow charts and configuration/interaction tables. A significant increase in speed of execution is achieved by vectorizing the developed code in computationally intensive areas. The study of an example consisting of two meshing disks rotating at high angular velocity is carried out. The dynamic behavior of the constraint forces associated with the generalized coordinates of the system are plotted by selecting various modes. Applications are intended for the study of dynamic and subsequent prediction of constraint forces at the gear teeth contacting points in helicopter transmissions with the aim of improving performance dependability.

Some dynamic resource allocation problems in wireless networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berry, Randall

2001-07-01

We consider dynamic resource allocation problems that arise in wireless networking. Specifically transmission scheduling problems are studied in cases where a user can dynamically allocate communication resources such as transmission rate and power based on current channel knowledge as well as traffic variations. We assume that arriving data is stored in a transmission buffer, and investigate the trade-off between average transmission power and average buffer delay. A general characterization of this trade-off is given and the behavior of this trade-off in the regime of asymptotically large buffer delays is explored. An extension to a more general utility based quality of service definition is also discussed.

Understanding the effects of different HIV transmission models in individual-based microsimulation of HIV epidemic dynamics in people who inject drugs

PubMed Central

MONTEIRO, J.F.G.; ESCUDERO, D.J.; WEINREB, C.; FLANIGAN, T.; GALEA, S.; FRIEDMAN, S.R.; MARSHALL, B.D.L.

2017-01-01

SUMMARY We investigated how different models of HIV transmission, and assumptions regarding the distribution of unprotected sex and syringe-sharing events (‘risk acts’), affect quantitative understanding of HIV transmission process in people who inject drugs (PWID). The individual-based model simulated HIV transmission in a dynamic sexual and injecting network representing New York City. We constructed four HIV transmission models: model 1, constant probabilities; model 2, random number of sexual and parenteral acts; model 3, viral load individual assigned; and model 4, two groups of partnerships (low and high risk). Overall, models with less heterogeneity were more sensitive to changes in numbers risk acts, producing HIV incidence up to four times higher than that empirically observed. Although all models overestimated HIV incidence, micro-simulations with greater heterogeneity in the HIV transmission modelling process produced more robust results and better reproduced empirical epidemic dynamics. PMID:26753627

Life and dynamic capacity modeling for aircraft transmissions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Savage, Michael

1991-01-01

A computer program to simulate the dynamic capacity and life of parallel shaft aircraft transmissions is presented. Five basic configurations can be analyzed: single mesh, compound, parallel, reverted, and single plane reductions. In execution, the program prompts the user for the data file prefix name, takes input from a ASCII file, and writes its output to a second ASCII file with the same prefix name. The input data file includes the transmission configuration, the input shaft torque and speed, and descriptions of the transmission geometry and the component gears and bearings. The program output file describes the transmission, its components, their capabilities, locations, and loads. It also lists the dynamic capability, ninety percent reliability, and mean life of each component and the transmission as a system. Here, the program, its input and output files, and the theory behind the operation of the program are described.

Open-source framework for power system transmission and distribution dynamics co-simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, Renke; Fan, Rui; Daily, Jeff

The promise of the smart grid entails more interactions between the transmission and distribution networks, and there is an immediate need for tools to provide the comprehensive modelling and simulation required to integrate operations at both transmission and distribution levels. Existing electromagnetic transient simulators can perform simulations with integration of transmission and distribution systems, but the computational burden is high for large-scale system analysis. For transient stability analysis, currently there are only separate tools for simulating transient dynamics of the transmission and distribution systems. In this paper, we introduce an open source co-simulation framework “Framework for Network Co-Simulation” (FNCS), togethermore » with the decoupled simulation approach that links existing transmission and distribution dynamic simulators through FNCS. FNCS is a middleware interface and framework that manages the interaction and synchronization of the transmission and distribution simulators. Preliminary testing results show the validity and capability of the proposed open-source co-simulation framework and the decoupled co-simulation methodology.« less

Operational and Strategic Implementation of Dynamic Line Rating for Optimized Wind Energy Generation Integration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gentle, Jake Paul

2016-12-01

One primary goal of rendering today’s transmission grid “smarter” is to optimize and better manage its power transfer capacity in real time. Power transfer capacity is affected by three main elements: stability, voltage limits, and thermal ratings. All three are critical, but thermal ratings represent the greatest opportunity to quickly, reliably and economically utilize the grid’s true capacity. With the “Smarter Grid”, new solutions have been sought to give operators a better grasp on real time conditions, allowing them to manage and extend the usefulness of existing transmission infrastructure in a safe and reliable manner. The objective of the INLmore » Wind Program is to provide industry a Dynamic Line Rating (DLR) solution that is state of the art as measured by cost, accuracy and dependability, to enable human operators to make informed decisions and take appropriate actions without human or system overloading and impacting the reliability of the grid. In addition to mitigating transmission line congestion to better integrate wind, DLR also offers the opportunity to improve the grid with optimized utilization of transmission lines to relieve congestion in general. As wind-generated energy has become a bigger part of the nation’s energy portfolio, researchers have learned that wind not only turns turbine blades to generate electricity, but can cool transmission lines and increase transfer capabilities significantly, sometimes up to 60 percent. INL’s DLR development supports EERE and The Wind Energy Technology Office’s goals by informing system planners and grid operators of available transmission capacity, beyond typical Static Line Ratings (SLR). SLRs are based on a fixed set of conservative environmental conditions to establish a limit on the amount of current lines can safely carry without overheating. Using commercially available weather monitors mounted on industry informed custom brackets developed by INL in combination with Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) enhanced weather analysis and DLR software, INL’s project offers the potential of safely providing line ampacities up to 40 percent or more above existing SLRs, by using real time information rather than overly conservative SLR.« less

Tackling the Challenges of Dynamic Experiments Using Liquid-Cell Transmission Electron Microscopy.

PubMed

Parent, Lucas R; Bakalis, Evangelos; Proetto, Maria; Li, Yiwen; Park, Chiwoo; Zerbetto, Francesco; Gianneschi, Nathan C

2018-01-16

Revolutions in science and engineering frequently result from the development, and wide adoption, of a new, powerful characterization or imaging technique. Beginning with the first glass lenses and telescopes in astronomy, to the development of visual-light microscopy, staining techniques, confocal microscopy, and fluorescence super-resolution microscopy in biology, and most recently aberration-corrected, cryogenic, and ultrafast (4D) electron microscopy, X-ray microscopy, and scanning probe microscopy in nanoscience. Through these developments, our perception and understanding of the physical nature of matter at length-scales beyond ordinary perception have been fundamentally transformed. Despite this progression in microscopy, techniques for observing nanoscale chemical processes and solvated/hydrated systems are limited, as the necessary spatial and temporal resolution presents significant technical challenges. However, the standard reliance on indirect or bulk phase characterization of nanoscale samples in liquids is undergoing a shift in recent times with the realization ( Williamson et al. Nat. Mater . 2003 , 2 , 532 - 536 ) of liquid-cell (scanning) transmission electron microscopy, LC(S)TEM, where picoliters of solution are hermetically sealed between electron-transparent "windows," which can be directly imaged or videoed at the nanoscale using conventional transmission electron microscopes. This Account seeks to open a discussion on the topic of standardizing strategies for conducting imaging experiments with a view to characterizing dynamics and motion of nanoscale materials. This is a challenge that could be described by critics and proponents alike, as analogous to doing chemistry in a lightning storm; where the nature of the solution, the nanomaterial, and the dynamic behaviors are all potentially subject to artifactual influence by the very act of our observation.

Modeling the role of environmental variables on the population dynamics of the malaria vector Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The impact of weather and climate on malaria transmission has attracted considerable attention in recent years, yet uncertainties around future disease trends under climate change remain. Mathematical models provide powerful tools for addressing such questions and understanding the implications for interventions and eradication strategies, but these require realistic modeling of the vector population dynamics and its response to environmental variables. Methods Published and unpublished field and experimental data are used to develop new formulations for modeling the relationships between key aspects of vector ecology and environmental variables. These relationships are integrated within a validated deterministic model of Anopheles gambiae s.s. population dynamics to provide a valuable tool for understanding vector response to biotic and abiotic variables. Results A novel, parsimonious framework for assessing the effects of rainfall, cloudiness, wind speed, desiccation, temperature, relative humidity and density-dependence on vector abundance is developed, allowing ease of construction, analysis, and integration into malaria transmission models. Model validation shows good agreement with longitudinal vector abundance data from Tanzania, suggesting that recent malaria reductions in certain areas of Africa could be due to changing environmental conditions affecting vector populations. Conclusions Mathematical models provide a powerful, explanatory means of understanding the role of environmental variables on mosquito populations and hence for predicting future malaria transmission under global change. The framework developed provides a valuable advance in this respect, but also highlights key research gaps that need to be resolved if we are to better understand future malaria risk in vulnerable communities. PMID:22877154

The primary case is not enough: Variation among individuals, groups and social networks modify bacterial transmission dynamics.

PubMed

Keiser, Carl N; Pinter-Wollman, Noa; Ziemba, Michael J; Kothamasu, Krishna S; Pruitt, Jonathan N

2018-03-01

The traits of the primary case of an infectious disease outbreak, and the circumstances for their aetiology, potentially influence the trajectory of transmission dynamics. However, these dynamics likely also depend on the traits of the individuals with whom the primary case interacts. We used the social spider Stegodyphus dumicola to test how the traits of the primary case, group phenotypic composition and group size interact to facilitate the transmission of a GFP-labelled cuticular bacterium. We also compared bacterial transmission across experimentally generated "daisy-chain" vs. "star" networks of social interactions. Finally, we compared social network structure across groups of different sizes. Groups of 10 spiders experienced more bacterial transmission events compared to groups of 30 spiders, regardless of groups' behavioural composition. Groups containing only one bold spider experienced the lowest levels of bacterial transmission regardless of group size. We found no evidence for the traits of the primary case influencing any transmission dynamics. In a second experiment, bacteria were transmitted to more individuals in experimentally induced star networks than in daisy-chains, on which transmission never exceeded three steps. In both experimental network types, transmission success depended jointly on the behavioural traits of the interacting individuals; however, the behavioural traits of the primary case were only important for transmission on star networks. Larger social groups exhibited lower interaction density (i.e. had a low ratio of observed to possible connections) and were more modular, i.e. they had more connections between nodes within a subgroup and fewer connections across subgroups. Thus, larger groups may restrict transmission by forming fewer interactions and by isolating subgroups that interacted with the primary case. These findings suggest that accounting for the traits of single exposed hosts has less power in predicting transmission dynamics compared to the larger scale factors of the social groups in which they reside. Factors like group size and phenotypic composition appear to alter social interaction patterns, which leads to differential transmission of microbes. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Monitoring Temporal Evolution of the Presence Intermediate Host of the Schistosomiasis and its Risk Transmission Based on Dragon Times Series in Poyang Lake Area Jiangxi Province, P.R. China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marie, Tiphanie; Lai, Xijun; Huber, Claire; Chen, Xiaoling; Uribe, Carlos; Huang, Shifeng; LaCaux, Jean-Pierre; LaFaye, Murielle; Yesou, Herve

2010-12-01

Earth Observation data were used for mapping potential Schistosomiasis japonica distribution, within Poyang Lake (Jiangxi Province, PR China), as well as transmission risk associated with fishing activities. Areas suitable for the development of Oncomelania hupensis, the intermediate host snail of Schistosoma japonicum, were derived from submersion time parameters and vegetation community indicators. Monthly maps showing the annual dynamic of potential O. hupensis presence areas were obtained from December 2005 to December 2008. Human potential transmission risk was handled through the mapping of settlements and the identification of the principal human activity sensitive to transmission: fishing in the central part of Poyang Lake. Finally, data crossing of the different parameters highlight the potential risk of transmission in most of the fishing nets areas.

System life and reliability modeling for helicopter transmissions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Savage, M.; Brikmanis, C. K.

1986-01-01

A computer program which simulates life and reliability of helicopter transmissions is presented. The helicopter transmissions may be composed of spiral bevel gear units and planetary gear units - alone, in series or in parallel. The spiral bevel gear units may have either single or dual input pinions, which are identical. The planetary gear units may be stepped or unstepped and the number of planet gears carried by the planet arm may be varied. The reliability analysis used in the program is based on the Weibull distribution lives of the transmission components. The computer calculates the system lives and dynamic capacities of the transmission components and the transmission. The system life is defined as the life of the component or transmission at an output torque at which the probability of survival is 90 percent. The dynamic capacity of a component or transmission is defined as the output torque which can be applied for one million output shaft cycles for a probability of survival of 90 percent. A complete summary of the life and dynamic capacity results is produced by the program.

Multiscale model for pedestrian and infection dynamics during air travel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Namilae, Sirish; Derjany, Pierrot; Mubayi, Anuj; Scotch, Mathew; Srinivasan, Ashok

2017-05-01

In this paper we develop a multiscale model combining social-force-based pedestrian movement with a population level stochastic infection transmission dynamics framework. The model is then applied to study the infection transmission within airplanes and the transmission of the Ebola virus through casual contacts. Drastic limitations on air-travel during epidemics, such as during the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa, carry considerable economic and human costs. We use the computational model to evaluate the effects of passenger movement within airplanes and air-travel policies on the geospatial spread of infectious diseases. We find that boarding policy by an airline is more critical for infection propagation compared to deplaning policy. Enplaning in two sections resulted in fewer infections than the currently followed strategy with multiple zones. In addition, we found that small commercial airplanes are better than larger ones at reducing the number of new infections in a flight. Aggregated results indicate that passenger movement strategies and airplane size predicted through these network models can have significant impact on an event like the 2014 Ebola epidemic. The methodology developed here is generic and can be readily modified to incorporate the impact from the outbreak of other directly transmitted infectious diseases.

Resource-driven changes to host population stability alter the evolution of virulence and transmission.

PubMed

Hite, Jessica L; Cressler, Clayton E

2018-05-05

What drives the evolution of parasite life-history traits? Recent studies suggest that linking within- and between-host processes can provide key insight into both disease dynamics and parasite evolution. Still, it remains difficult to understand how to pinpoint the critical factors connecting these cross-scale feedbacks, particularly under non-equilibrium conditions; many natural host populations inherently fluctuate and parasites themselves can strongly alter the stability of host populations. Here, we develop a general model framework that mechanistically links resources to parasite evolution across a gradient of stable and unstable conditions. First, we dynamically link resources and between-host processes (host density, stability, transmission) to virulence evolution, using a 'non-nested' model. Then, we consider a 'nested' model where population-level processes (transmission and virulence) depend on resource-driven changes to individual-level (within-host) processes (energetics, immune function, parasite production). Contrary to 'non-nested' model predictions, the 'nested' model reveals complex effects of host population dynamics on parasite evolution, including regions of evolutionary bistability; evolution can push parasites towards strongly or weakly stabilizing strategies. This bistability results from dynamic feedbacks between resource-driven changes to host density, host immune function and parasite production. Together, these results highlight how cross-scale feedbacks can provide key insights into the structuring role of parasites and parasite evolution.This article is part of the theme issue 'Anthropogenic resource subsidies and host-parasite dynamics in wildlife'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Household transmission of influenza virus

PubMed Central

Tsang, Tim K.; Lau, Lincoln L. H.; Cauchemez, Simon; Cowling, Benjamin J.

2015-01-01

Human influenza viruses cause regular epidemics and occasional pandemics with a substantial public health burden. Household transmission studies have provided valuable information on the dynamics of influenza transmission. We reviewed published studies and found that once one household member is infected with influenza, the risk of infection in a household contact can be up to 38%, and the delay between onset in index and secondary cases is around 3 days. Younger age was associated with higher susceptibility. In the future, household transmission studies will provide information on transmission dynamics including the correlation of virus shedding and symptoms with transmission, and the correlation of new measures of immunity with protection against infection. PMID:26612500

Optical Diode Effect at Spin-Wave Excitations of the Room-Temperature Multiferroic BiFeO_{3}.

PubMed

Kézsmárki, I; Nagel, U; Bordács, S; Fishman, R S; Lee, J H; Yi, Hee Taek; Cheong, S-W; Rõõm, T

2015-09-18

Multiferroics permit the magnetic control of the electric polarization and the electric control of the magnetization. These static magnetoelectric (ME) effects are of enormous interest: The ability to read and write a magnetic state current-free by an electric voltage would provide a huge technological advantage. Dynamic or optical ME effects are equally interesting, because they give rise to unidirectional light propagation as recently observed in low-temperature multiferroics. This phenomenon, if realized at room temperature, would allow the development of optical diodes which transmit unpolarized light in one, but not in the opposite, direction. Here, we report strong unidirectional transmission in the room-temperature multiferroic BiFeO_{3} over the gigahertz-terahertz frequency range. The supporting theory attributes the observed unidirectional transmission to the spin-current-driven dynamic ME effect. These findings are an important step toward the realization of optical diodes, supplemented by the ability to switch the transmission direction with a magnetic or electric field.

Dynamic analysis of flexible gear trains/transmissions - An automated approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Amirouche, F. M. L.; Shareef, N. H.; Xie, M.

1992-01-01

In this paper an automated algorithmic method is presented for the dynamic analysis of geared trains/transmissions. These are treated as a system of interconnected flexible bodies. The procedure developed explains the switching of constraints with time as a result of the change in the contacting areas at the gear teeth. The elastic behavior of the system is studied through the employment of three-dimensional isoparametric elements having six degrees-of-freedom at each node. The contact between the bodies is assumed at the various nodes, which could be either a line or a plane. The kinematical expressions, together with the equations of motion using Kane's method, strain energy concepts, are presented in a matrix form suitable for computer implementation. The constraint Jacobian matrices are generated automatically based on the contact information between the bodies. The concepts of the relative velocity at the contacting points at the tooth pairs and the subsequent use of the transmission ratios in the analysis is presented.

A Discrete Events Delay Differential System Model for Transmission of Vancomycin-Resistant Enterococcus (VRE) in Hospitals

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-09-19

estimated directly form the surveillance data Infection control measures were implemented in the form of health care worker hand - hygiene before and after...hospital infections , is used to motivate possibilities of modeling nosocomial infec- tion dynamics. This is done in the context of hospital monitoring and...model development. Key Words: Delay equations, discrete events, nosocomial infection dynamics, surveil- lance data, inverse problems, parameter

Inference and forecast of H7N9 influenza in China, 2013 to 2015.

PubMed

Li, Ruiyun; Bai, Yuqi; Heaney, Alex; Kandula, Sasikiran; Cai, Jun; Zhao, Xuyi; Xu, Bing; Shaman, Jeffrey

2017-02-16

The recent emergence of A(H7N9) avian influenza poses a significant challenge to public health in China and around the world; however, understanding of the transmission dynamics and progression of influenza A(H7N9) infection in domestic poultry, as well as spillover transmission to humans, remains limited. Here, we develop a mathematical model-Bayesian inference system which combines a simple epidemic model and data assimilation method, and use it in conjunction with data on observed human influenza A(H7N9) cases from 19 February 2013 to 19 September 2015 to estimate key epidemiological parameters and to forecast infection in both poultry and humans. Our findings indicate a high outbreak attack rate of 33% among poultry but a low rate of chicken-to-human spillover transmission. In addition, we generated accurate forecasts of the peak timing and magnitude of human influenza A(H7N9) cases. This work demonstrates that transmission dynamics within an avian reservoir can be estimated and that real-time forecast of spillover avian influenza in humans is possible. This article is copyright of The Authors, 2017.

Impact of biodiversity and seasonality on Lyme-pathogen transmission.

PubMed

Lou, Yijun; Wu, Jianhong; Wu, Xiaotian

2014-11-28

Lyme disease imposes increasing global public health challenges. To better understand the joint effects of seasonal temperature variation and host community composition on the pathogen transmission, a stage-structured periodic model is proposed by integrating seasonal tick development and activity, multiple host species and complex pathogen transmission routes between ticks and reservoirs. Two thresholds, one for tick population dynamics and the other for Lyme-pathogen transmission dynamics, are identified and shown to fully classify the long-term outcomes of the tick invasion and disease persistence. Seeding with the realistic parameters, the tick reproduction threshold and Lyme disease spread threshold are estimated to illustrate the joint effects of the climate change and host community diversity on the pattern of Lyme disease risk. It is shown that climate warming can amplify the disease risk and slightly change the seasonality of disease risk. Both the "dilution effect" and "amplification effect" are observed by feeding the model with different possible alternative hosts. Therefore, the relationship between the host community biodiversity and disease risk varies, calling for more accurate measurements on the local environment, both biotic and abiotic such as the temperature and the host community composition.

Seasonality and comparative dynamics of six childhood infections in pre-vaccination Copenhagen.

PubMed

Metcalf, C Jessica E; Bjørnstad, Ottar N; Grenfell, Bryan T; Andreasen, Viggo

2009-12-07

Seasonal variation in infection transmission is a key determinant of epidemic dynamics of acute infections. For measles, the best-understood strongly immunizing directly transmitted childhood infection, the perception is that term-time forcing is the main driver of seasonality in developed countries. The degree to which this holds true across other acute immunizing childhood infections is not clear. Here, we identify seasonal transmission patterns using a unique long-term dataset with weekly incidence of six infections including measles. Data on age-incidence allow us to quantify the mean age of infection. Results indicate correspondence between dips in transmission and school holidays for some infections, but there are puzzling discrepancies, despite close correspondence between average age of infection and age of schooling. Theoretical predictions of the relationship between amplitude of seasonality and basic reproductive rate of infections that should result from term-time forcing are also not upheld. We conclude that where yearly trajectories of susceptible numbers are perturbed, e.g. via waning of immunity, seasonality is unlikely to be entirely driven by term-time forcing. For the three bacterial infections, pertussis, scarlet fever and diphtheria, there is additionally a strong increase in transmission during the late summer before the end of school vacations.

Design and control of a novel two-speed Uninterrupted Mechanical Transmission for electric vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Shengnan; Song, Jian; Song, Haijun; Tai, Yuzhuo; Li, Fei; Sinh Nguyen, Truong

2016-06-01

Conventional all-electric vehicles (EV) adopt single-speed transmission due to its low cost and simple construction. However, with the adoption of this type of driveline system, development of EV technology leads to the growing performance requirements of drive motor. Introducing a multi-speed or two-speed transmission to EV offers the possibility of efficiency improvement of the whole powertrain. This paper presents an innovative two-speed Uninterrupted Mechanical Transmission (UMT), which consists of an epicyclic gearing system, a centrifugal clutch and a brake band, allowing the seamless shifting between two gears. Besides, driver's intention is recognized by the control system which is based on fuzzy logic controller (FLC), utilizing the signals of vehicle velocity and accelerator pedal position. The novel UMT shows better dynamic and comfort performance in compare with the optimized AMT with the same gear ratios. Comparison between the control strategy with recognition of driver intention and the conventional two-parameter gear shifting strategy is presented. And the simulation and analysis of the middle layer of optimal gearshift control algorithm is detailed. The results indicate that the UMT adopting FLC and optimal control method provides a significant improvement of energy efficiency, dynamic performance and shifting comfort for EV.

Model-based evaluation of highly and low pathogenic avian influenza dynamics in wild birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hénaux, Viviane; Samuel, Michael D.; Bunck, Christine M.

2010-01-01

There is growing interest in avian influenza (AI) epidemiology to predict disease risk in wild and domestic birds, and prevent transmission to humans. However, understanding the epidemic dynamics of highly pathogenic (HPAI) viruses remains challenging because they have rarely been detected in wild birds. We used modeling to integrate available scientific information from laboratory and field studies, evaluate AI dynamics in individual hosts and waterfowl populations, and identify key areas for future research. We developed a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model and used published laboratory challenge studies to estimate epidemiological parameters (rate of infection, latency period, recovery and mortality rates), considering the importance of age classes, and virus pathogenicity. Infectious contact leads to infection and virus shedding within 1–2 days, followed by relatively slower period for recovery or mortality. We found a shorter infectious period for HPAI than low pathogenic (LP) AI, which may explain that HPAI has been much harder to detect than LPAI during surveillance programs. Our model predicted a rapid LPAI epidemic curve, with a median duration of infection of 50–60 days and no fatalities. In contrast, HPAI dynamics had lower prevalence and higher mortality, especially in young birds. Based on field data from LPAI studies, our model suggests to increase surveillance for HPAI in post-breeding areas, because the presence of immunologically naïve young birds is predicted to cause higher HPAI prevalence and bird losses during this season. Our results indicate a better understanding of the transmission, infection, and immunity-related processes is required to refine predictions of AI risk and spread, improve surveillance for HPAI in wild birds, and develop disease control strategies to reduce potential transmission to domestic birds and/or humans.

Natural Characteristics of The Herringbone Gear Transmission System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Jianxing; Sun, Wenlei; Cao, Li

2018-03-01

According to the structure characteristics of herringbone gear transmission, a more realistic dynamic model of the transmission system is built in consideration of the inner excitation, herringbone gears axial positioning and sliding bearing etc. The natural frequencies of the system are calculated, and the vibration mode is divided into symmetric vibration modes and asymmetric vibration modes. The time history of system dynamic force is obtained by solving the dynamic model. The effects of the connection stiffness of left and right sides of herringbone gears and axial support stiffness on natural characteristics are discussed.

On the dynamic response of pressure transmission lines in the research of helium-charged free piston Stirling engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, Eric L.; Dudenhoefer, James E.

1989-01-01

The signal distortion inherent to pressure transmission lines in free-piston Stirling engine research is discussed. Based on results from classical analysis, guidelines are formulated to describe the dynamic response properties of a volume-terminated transmission tube for applications involving the helium-charged free-piston Stirling engines. The underdamped flow regime is described, the primary resonance frequency is derived, and the pressure phase and amplitude distortion are discussed. The scope and limitation of the dynamic response analysis are considered.

Non-linear dynamic analysis of geared systems. Final Report Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Singh, Rajendra; Houser, Donald R.; Kahraman, Ahmet

1990-01-01

Under driving conditions, a typical geared system may be subjected to large dynamic loads. Also, the vibration level of the geared system is directly related to the noise radiated from the gear box. The steady state dynamic behavior of the system is examined in order to design reliable and quiet transmissions. The scope is limited to a system containing a spur gear pair with backlash and periodically time varying mesh stiffness, and rolling element bearings with clearance type nonlinearities. The internal static transmission error at the gear mesh, which is of importance from high frequency noise and vibration control view point, is considered in the formulation in sinusoidal or periodic form. A dynamic finite element model of the linear time invariant (LTI) system is developed. Effects of several system parameters, such as torsional and transverse flexibilities of the shafts and prime mover/load inertias, on free and forced vibration characteristics are investigated. Several reduced order LTI models are developed and validated by comparing their eigen solutions with the finite element model results. Using the reduced order formulations, a three degree of freedom dynamic model is developed which includes nonlinearities associated with radical clearances in the radial rolling element bearings, backlash between a spur gear pair and periodically varying gear mesh stiffness. As a limiting case, a single degree of freedom model of the spur gear pair with backlash is considered and mathematical conditions for tooth separation and back collision are defined. Both digital simulation technique and analytical models such as method of harmonic balance and the method of multiple scales were used to develop the steady state frequency response characteristics for various nonlinear and/or time varying cases.

Reducing HIV infection in people who inject drugs is impossible without targeting recently-infected subjects

PubMed Central

Vasylyeva, Tetyana I.; Friedman, Samuel R.; Lourenco, Jose; Gupta, Sunetra; Hatzakis, Angelos; Pybus, Oliver G.; Katzourakis, Aris; Smyrnov, Pavlo; Karamitros, Timokratis; Paraskevis, Dimitrios; Magiorkinis, Gkikas

2016-01-01

Objective: Although our understanding of viral transmission among people who inject drugs (PWID) has improved, we still know little about when and how many times each injector transmits HIV throughout the duration of infection. We describe HIV dynamics in PWID to evaluate which preventive strategies can be efficient. Design: Due to the notably scarce interventions, HIV-1 spread explosively in Russia and Ukraine in 1990s. By studying this epidemic between 1995 and 2005, we characterized naturally occurring transmission dynamics of HIV among PWID. Method: We combined publicly available HIV pol and env sequences with prevalence estimates from Russia and Ukraine under an evolutionary epidemiology framework to characterize HIV transmissibility between PWID. We then constructed compartmental models to simulate HIV spread among PWID. Results: In the absence of interventions, each injector transmits on average to 10 others. Half of the transmissions take place within 1 month after primary infection, suggesting that the epidemic will expand even after blocking all the post–first month transmissions. Primary prevention can realistically target the first month of infection, and we show that it is very efficient to control the spread of HIV-1 in PWID. Treating acutely infected on top of primary prevention is notably effective. Conclusion: As a large proportion of transmissions among PWID occur within 1 month after infection, reducing and delaying transmissions through scale-up of harm reduction programmes should always form the backbone of HIV control strategies in PWID. Growing PWID populations in the developing world, where primary prevention is scarce, constitutes a public health time bomb. PMID:27824626

Variations in Modeled Dengue Transmission over Puerto Rico Using a Climate Driven Dynamic Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morin, Cory; Monaghan, Andrew; Crosson, William; Quattrochi, Dale; Luvall, Jeffrey

2014-01-01

Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne viral disease reemerging throughout much of the tropical Americas. Dengue virus transmission is explicitly influenced by climate and the environment through its primary vector, Aedes aegypti. Temperature regulates Ae. aegypti development, survival, and replication rates as well as the incubation period of the virus within the mosquito. Precipitation provides water for many of the preferred breeding habitats of the mosquito, including buckets, old tires, and other places water can collect. Because of variations in topography, ocean influences and atmospheric processes, temperature and rainfall patterns vary across Puerto Rico and so do dengue virus transmission rates. Using NASA's TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite for precipitation input, ground-based observations for temperature input, and laboratory confirmed dengue cases reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for parameter calibration, we modeled dengue transmission at the county level across Puerto Rico from 2010-2013 using a dynamic dengue transmission model that includes interacting vector ecology and epidemiological components. Employing a Monte Carlo approach, we performed ensembles of several thousands of model simulations for each county in order to resolve the model uncertainty arising from using different combinations of parameter values that are not well known. The top 1% of model simulations that best reproduced the reported dengue case data were then analyzed to determine the most important parameters for dengue virus transmission in each county, as well as the relative influence of climate variability on transmission. These results can be used by public health workers to implement dengue control methods that are targeted for specific locations and climate conditions.

Dynamic vs. static social networks in models of parasite transmission: predicting Cryptosporidium spread in wild lemurs.

PubMed

Springer, Andrea; Kappeler, Peter M; Nunn, Charles L

2017-05-01

Social networks provide an established tool to implement heterogeneous contact structures in epidemiological models. Dynamic temporal changes in contact structure and ranging behaviour of wildlife may impact disease dynamics. A consensus has yet to emerge, however, concerning the conditions in which network dynamics impact model outcomes, as compared to static approximations that average contact rates over longer time periods. Furthermore, as many pathogens can be transmitted both environmentally and via close contact, it is important to investigate the relative influence of both transmission routes in real-world populations. Here, we use empirically derived networks from a population of wild primates, Verreaux's sifakas (Propithecus verreauxi), and simulated networks to investigate pathogen spread in dynamic vs. static social networks. First, we constructed a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered model of Cryptosporidium spread in wild Verreaux's sifakas. We incorporated social and environmental transmission routes and parameterized the model for two different climatic seasons. Second, we used simulated networks and greater variation in epidemiological parameters to investigate the conditions in which dynamic networks produce larger outbreak sizes than static networks. We found that average outbreak size of Cryptosporidium infections in sifakas was larger when the disease was introduced in the dry season than in the wet season, driven by an increase in home range overlap towards the end of the dry season. Regardless of season, dynamic networks always produced larger average outbreak sizes than static networks. Larger outbreaks in dynamic models based on simulated networks occurred especially when the probability of transmission and recovery were low. Variation in tie strength in the dynamic networks also had a major impact on outbreak size, while network modularity had a weaker influence than epidemiological parameters that determine transmission and recovery. Our study adds to emerging evidence that dynamic networks can change predictions of disease dynamics, especially if the disease shows low transmissibility and a long infectious period, and when environmental conditions lead to enhanced between-group contact after an infectious agent has been introduced. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

The dynamics of transmission and the dynamics of networks.

PubMed

Farine, Damien

2017-05-01

A toy example depicted here highlighting the results of a study in this issue of the Journal of Animal Ecology that investigates the impact of network dynamics on potential disease outbreaks. Infections (stars) that spread by contact only (left) reduce the predicted outbreak size compared to situations where individuals can become infected by moving through areas that previously contained infected individuals (right). This is potentially important in species where individuals, or in this case groups, have overlapping ranges (as depicted on the top right). Incorporating network dynamics that maintain information about the ordering of contacts (central blocks; including the ordering of spatial overlap as noted by the arrows that highlight the blue group arriving after the red group in top-right of the figure) is important for capturing how a disease might not have the opportunity to spread to all individuals. By contrast, a static or 'average' network (lower blocks) does not capture any of these dynamics. Interestingly, although static networks generally predict larger outbreak sizes, the authors find that in cases when transmission probability is low, this prediction can switch as a result of changes in the estimated intensity of contacts among individuals. [Colour figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]. Springer, A., Kappeler, P.M. & Nunn, C.L. (2017) Dynamic vs. static social networks in models of parasite transmission: Predicting Cryptosporidium spread in wild lemurs. Journal of Animal Ecology, 86, 419-433. The spread of disease or information through networks can be affected by several factors. Whether and how these factors are accounted for can fundamentally change the predicted impact of a spreading epidemic. Springer, Kappeler & Nunn () investigate the role of different modes of transmission and network dynamics on the predicted size of a disease outbreak across several groups of Verreaux's sifakas, a group-living species of lemur. While some factors, such as seasonality, led to consistent differences in the structure of social networks, using dynamic vs. static representations of networks generated differences in the predicted outbreak size of an emergent disease. These findings highlight some of the challenges associated with studying disease dynamics in animal populations, and the importance of continuing efforts to develop the network tools needed to study disease spread. © 2017 The Author. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Transmission dynamics of an insect-specific flavivirus in a naturally infected Culex pipiens laboratory colony and effects of co-infection on vector competence for West Nile virus

PubMed Central

Bolling, Bethany G.; Olea-Popelka, Francisco J.; Eisen, Lars; Moore, Chester G.; Blair, Carol D.

2012-01-01

We established a laboratory colony of Culex pipiens mosquitoes from eggs collected in Colorado and discovered that mosquitoes in the colony are naturally infected with Culex flavivirus (CxFV), an insect-specific flavivirus. In this study we examined transmission dynamics of CxFV and effects of persistent CxFV infection on vector competence for West Nile virus (WNV). We found that vertical transmission is the primary mechanism for persistence of CxFV in Cx. pipiens, with venereal transmission potentially playing a minor role. Vector competence experiments indicated possible early suppression of WNV replication by persistent CxFV infection in Cx. pipiens. This is the first description of insect-specific flavivirus transmission dynamics in a naturally infected mosquito colony and the observation of delayed dissemination of superinfecting WNV suggests that the presence of CxFV may impact the intensity of enzootic transmission of WNV and the risk of human exposure to this important pathogen. PMID:22425062

Current evaluation of hydraulics to replace the cable force transmission system for body-powered upper-limb prostheses.

PubMed

LeBlanc, M

1990-01-01

Present body-powered upper-limb prostheses use a cable control system employing World War II aircraft technology to transmit force from the body to the prosthesis for operation. The cable and associated hardware are located outside the prosthesis. Because individuals with arm amputations want prostheses that are natural looking with a smooth, soft outer surface, a design and development project was undertaken to replace the cable system with hydraulics located inside the prosthesis. Three different hydraulic transmission systems were built for evaluation, and other possibilities were explored. Results indicate that a hydraulic force transmission system remains an unmet challenge as a practical replacement for the cable system. The author was unable to develop a hydraulic system that meets the necessary dynamic requirements and is acceptable in size and appearance.

Multi-scale modeling for the transmission of influenza and the evaluation of interventions toward it.

PubMed

Guo, Dongmin; Li, King C; Peters, Timothy R; Snively, Beverly M; Poehling, Katherine A; Zhou, Xiaobo

2015-03-11

Mathematical modeling of influenza epidemic is important for analyzing the main cause of the epidemic and finding effective interventions towards it. The epidemic is a dynamic process. In this process, daily infections are caused by people's contacts, and the frequency of contacts can be mainly influenced by their cognition to the disease. The cognition is in turn influenced by daily illness attack rate, climate, and other environment factors. Few existing methods considered the dynamic process in their models. Therefore, their prediction results can hardly be explained by the mechanisms of epidemic spreading. In this paper, we developed a heterogeneous graph modeling approach (HGM) to describe the dynamic process of influenza virus transmission by taking advantage of our unique clinical data. We built social network of studied region and embedded an Agent-Based Model (ABM) in the HGM to describe the dynamic change of an epidemic. Our simulations have a good agreement with clinical data. Parameter sensitivity analysis showed that temperature influences the dynamic of epidemic significantly and system behavior analysis showed social network degree is a critical factor determining the size of an epidemic. Finally, multiple scenarios for vaccination and school closure strategies were simulated and their performance was analyzed.

Cell transmission model of dynamic assignment for urban rail transit networks.

PubMed

Xu, Guangming; Zhao, Shuo; Shi, Feng; Zhang, Feilian

2017-01-01

For urban rail transit network, the space-time flow distribution can play an important role in evaluating and optimizing the space-time resource allocation. For obtaining the space-time flow distribution without the restriction of schedules, a dynamic assignment problem is proposed based on the concept of continuous transmission. To solve the dynamic assignment problem, the cell transmission model is built for urban rail transit networks. The priority principle, queuing process, capacity constraints and congestion effects are considered in the cell transmission mechanism. Then an efficient method is designed to solve the shortest path for an urban rail network, which decreases the computing cost for solving the cell transmission model. The instantaneous dynamic user optimal state can be reached with the method of successive average. Many evaluation indexes of passenger flow can be generated, to provide effective support for the optimization of train schedules and the capacity evaluation for urban rail transit network. Finally, the model and its potential application are demonstrated via two numerical experiments using a small-scale network and the Beijing Metro network.

Estimating malaria transmission from humans to mosquitoes in a noisy landscape.

PubMed

Reiner, Robert C; Guerra, Carlos; Donnelly, Martin J; Bousema, Teun; Drakeley, Chris; Smith, David L

2015-10-06

A basic quantitative understanding of malaria transmission requires measuring the probability a mosquito becomes infected after feeding on a human. Parasite prevalence in mosquitoes is highly age-dependent, and the unknown age-structure of fluctuating mosquito populations impedes estimation. Here, we simulate mosquito infection dynamics, where mosquito recruitment is modelled seasonally with fractional Brownian noise, and we develop methods for estimating mosquito infection rates. We find that noise introduces bias, but the magnitude of the bias depends on the 'colour' of the noise. Some of these problems can be overcome by increasing the sampling frequency, but estimates of transmission rates (and estimated reductions in transmission) are most accurate and precise if they combine parity, oocyst rates and sporozoite rates. These studies provide a basis for evaluating the adequacy of various entomological sampling procedures for measuring malaria parasite transmission from humans to mosquitoes and for evaluating the direct transmission-blocking effects of a vaccine. © 2015 The Authors.

The Complex Relationship between Weather and Dengue Virus Transmission in Thailand

PubMed Central

Campbell, Karen M.; Lin, C. D.; Iamsirithaworn, Sopon; Scott, Thomas W.

2013-01-01

Using a novel analytical approach, weather dynamics and seasonal dengue virus transmission cycles were profiled for each Thailand province, 1983–2001, using monthly assessments of cases, temperature, humidity, and rainfall. We observed systematic differences in the structure of seasonal transmission cycles of different magnitude, the role of weather in regulating seasonal cycles, necessary versus optimal transmission “weather-space,” basis of large epidemics, and predictive indicators that estimate risk. Larger epidemics begin earlier, develop faster, and are predicted at Onset change-point when case counts are low. Temperature defines a viable range for transmission; humidity amplifies the potential within that range. This duality is central to transmission. Eighty percent of 1.2 million severe dengue cases occurred when mean temperature was 27–29.5°C and mean humidity was > 75%. Interventions are most effective when applied early. Most cases occur near Peak, yet small reductions at Onset can substantially reduce epidemic magnitude. Monitoring the Quiet-Phase is fundamental in effectively targeting interventions pre-emptively. PMID:23958906

TLIFE: a Program for Spur, Helical and Spiral Bevel Transmission Life and Reliability Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Savage, M.; Prasanna, M. G.; Rubadeux, K. L.

1994-01-01

This report describes a computer program, 'TLIFE', which models the service life of a transmission. The program is written in ANSI standard Fortran 77 and has an executable size of about 157 K bytes for use on a personal computer running DOS. It can also be compiled and executed in UNIX. The computer program can analyze any one of eleven unit transmissions either singly or in a series combination of up to twenty-five unit transmissions. Metric or English unit calculations are performed with the same routines using consistent input data and a units flag. Primary outputs are the dynamic capacity of the transmission and the mean lives of the transmission and of the sum of its components. The program uses a modular approach to separate the load analyses from the system life calculations. The program and its input and output data files are described herein. Three examples illustrate its use. A development of the theory behind the analysis in the program is included after the examples.

Transmission Heterogeneity and Autoinoculation in a Multisite Infection Model of HPV

PubMed Central

Brouwer, Andrew F.; Meza, Rafael; Eisenberg, Marisa C.

2015-01-01

The human papillomavirus (HPV) is sexually transmitted and can infect oral, genital, and anal sites in the human epithelium. Here, we develop a multisite transmission model that includes autoinoculation, to study HPV and other multisite diseases. Under a homogeneous-contacts assumption, we analyze the basic reproduction number R0, as well as type and target reproduction numbers, for a two-site model. In particular, we find that R0 occupies a space between taking the maximum of next generation matrix terms for same site transmission and taking the geometric average of cross-site transmission terms in such a way that heterogeneity in the same-site transmission rates increases R0 while heterogeneity in the cross-site transmission decreases it. Additionally, autoinoculation adds considerable complexity to the form of R0. We extend this analysis to a heterosexual population, which additionally yields dynamics analogous to those of vector–host models. We also examine how these issues of heterogeneity may affect disease control, using type and target reproduction numbers. PMID:26518265

The complex relationship between weather and dengue virus transmission in Thailand.

PubMed

Campbell, Karen M; Lin, C D; Iamsirithaworn, Sopon; Scott, Thomas W

2013-12-01

Using a novel analytical approach, weather dynamics and seasonal dengue virus transmission cycles were profiled for each Thailand province, 1983-2001, using monthly assessments of cases, temperature, humidity, and rainfall. We observed systematic differences in the structure of seasonal transmission cycles of different magnitude, the role of weather in regulating seasonal cycles, necessary versus optimal transmission "weather-space," basis of large epidemics, and predictive indicators that estimate risk. Larger epidemics begin earlier, develop faster, and are predicted at Onset change-point when case counts are low. Temperature defines a viable range for transmission; humidity amplifies the potential within that range. This duality is central to transmission. Eighty percent of 1.2 million severe dengue cases occurred when mean temperature was 27-29.5°C and mean humidity was > 75%. Interventions are most effective when applied early. Most cases occur near Peak, yet small reductions at Onset can substantially reduce epidemic magnitude. Monitoring the Quiet-Phase is fundamental in effectively targeting interventions pre-emptively.

Development of a model to simulate infection dynamics of Mycobacterium bovis in cattle herds in the United States

PubMed Central

Smith, Rebecca L.; Schukken, Ynte H.; Lu, Zhao; Mitchell, Rebecca M.; Grohn, Yrjo T.

2013-01-01

Objective To develop a mathematical model to simulate infection dynamics of Mycobacterium bovis in cattle herds in the United States and predict efficacy of the current national control strategy for tuberculosis in cattle. Design Stochastic simulation model. Sample Theoretical cattle herds in the United States. Procedures A model of within-herd M bovis transmission dynamics following introduction of 1 latently infected cow was developed. Frequency- and density-dependent transmission modes and 3 tuberculin-test based culling strategies (no test-based culling, constant (annual) testing with test-based culling, and the current strategy of slaughterhouse detection-based testing and culling) were investigated. Results were evaluated for 3 herd sizes over a 10-year period and validated via simulation of known outbreaks of M bovis infection. Results On the basis of 1,000 simulations (1000 herds each) at replacement rates typical for dairy cattle (0.33/y), median time to detection of M bovis infection in medium-sized herds (276 adult cattle) via slaughterhouse surveillance was 27 months after introduction, and 58% of these herds would spontaneously clear the infection prior to that time. Sixty-two percent of medium-sized herds without intervention and 99% of those managed with constant test-based culling were predicted to clear infection < 10 years after introduction. The model predicted observed outbreaks best for frequency-dependent transmission, and probability of clearance was most sensitive to replacement rate. Conclusions and Clinical Relevance Although modeling indicated the current national control strategy was sufficient for elimination of M bovis infection from dairy herds after detection, slaughterhouse surveillance was not sufficient to detect M bovis infection in all herds and resulted in subjectively delayed detection, compared with the constant testing method. Further research is required to economically optimize this strategy. PMID:23865885

Heterogeneous wireless/wireline optical access networks with the R-EAT as backend component

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagedorn, Klaus; Gindera, Ralf; Stohr, Andreas; Jager, Dieter

2004-09-01

A heterogeneous wireless/wireline optical transmission link using a reflection type electroabsorption transceiver (R-EAT) is presented. Simultaneous transmission of full-duplex broadband wireless LAN (WLAN) channels and 1Gb/s base band data is experimentally demonstrated. The system link employs sub-carrier multiplexing (SCM) and two optical channels for full duplex transmission of various analog WLAN channels and downlink digital base band data. The developed link architecture is suitable for simultaneous transmission of broadband wireline and wireless signals, it enables the coexistence and interoperability between wireline and wireless access technologies. The developed R-EAT component employed in this wireline/wireless access system, features "single-chip-component" base stations in access networks with star type topology where only a single optical fiber is used for bidirectional optical transmission. The R-EAT can be used within the optical C-band (1530- 1560nm) and is suitable for (D)WDM networks. Bit error rate measurements demonstrate the capabilities of the R-EAT for 1Gb/s base band transmission. The analog performance for WLAN transmission is characterised by a spurious free dynamic range (SFDR) of more than 75dB and 90dB for uplink and downlink transmission, respectively. The link gain for uplink and downlink transmission is -42dB and -37dB, respectively. The demonstrates the analog performances of the R-EAT for being used in wireless access networks such as W-LAN.

The Genealogical Population Dynamics of HIV-1 in a Large Transmission Chain: Bridging within and among Host Evolutionary Rates

PubMed Central

Vrancken, Bram; Rambaut, Andrew; Suchard, Marc A.; Drummond, Alexei; Baele, Guy; Derdelinckx, Inge; Van Wijngaerden, Eric; Vandamme, Anne-Mieke; Van Laethem, Kristel; Lemey, Philippe

2014-01-01

Transmission lies at the interface of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) evolution within and among hosts and separates distinct selective pressures that impose differences in both the mode of diversification and the tempo of evolution. In the absence of comprehensive direct comparative analyses of the evolutionary processes at different biological scales, our understanding of how fast within-host HIV-1 evolutionary rates translate to lower rates at the between host level remains incomplete. Here, we address this by analyzing pol and env data from a large HIV-1 subtype C transmission chain for which both the timing and the direction is known for most transmission events. To this purpose, we develop a new transmission model in a Bayesian genealogical inference framework and demonstrate how to constrain the viral evolutionary history to be compatible with the transmission history while simultaneously inferring the within-host evolutionary and population dynamics. We show that accommodating a transmission bottleneck affords the best fit our data, but the sparse within-host HIV-1 sampling prevents accurate quantification of the concomitant loss in genetic diversity. We draw inference under the transmission model to estimate HIV-1 evolutionary rates among epidemiologically-related patients and demonstrate that they lie in between fast intra-host rates and lower rates among epidemiologically unrelated individuals infected with HIV subtype C. Using a new molecular clock approach, we quantify and find support for a lower evolutionary rate along branches that accommodate a transmission event or branches that represent the entire backbone of transmitted lineages in our transmission history. Finally, we recover the rate differences at the different biological scales for both synonymous and non-synonymous substitution rates, which is only compatible with the ‘store and retrieve’ hypothesis positing that viruses stored early in latently infected cells preferentially transmit or establish new infections upon reactivation. PMID:24699231

The Dynamic Actin Cytoskeleton in Smooth Muscle.

PubMed

Tang, Dale D

2018-01-01

Smooth muscle contraction requires both myosin activation and actin cytoskeletal remodeling. Actin cytoskeletal reorganization facilitates smooth muscle contraction by promoting force transmission between the contractile unit and the extracellular matrix (ECM), and by enhancing intercellular mechanical transduction. Myosin may be viewed to serve as an "engine" for smooth muscle contraction whereas the actin cytoskeleton may function as a "transmission system" in smooth muscle. The actin cytoskeleton in smooth muscle also undergoes restructuring upon activation with growth factors or the ECM, which controls smooth muscle cell proliferation and migration. Abnormal smooth muscle contraction, cell proliferation, and motility contribute to the development of vascular and pulmonary diseases. A number of actin-regulatory proteins including protein kinases have been discovered to orchestrate actin dynamics in smooth muscle. In particular, Abelson tyrosine kinase (c-Abl) is an important molecule that controls actin dynamics, contraction, growth, and motility in smooth muscle. Moreover, c-Abl coordinates the regulation of blood pressure and contributes to the pathogenesis of airway hyperresponsiveness and vascular/airway remodeling in vivo. Thus, c-Abl may be a novel pharmacological target for the development of new therapy to treat smooth muscle diseases such as hypertension and asthma. © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Co-infections and transmission dynamics in a tick-borne bacterium community exposed to songbirds.

PubMed

Heylen, Dieter; Fonville, Manoj; van Leeuwen, Arieke Docters; Sprong, Hein

2016-03-01

We investigated the transmission dynamics of a community of tick-borne pathogenic bacteria in a common European songbird (Parus major). Tick-naïve birds were infested with three successive batches (spaced 5 days apart) of field-collected Ixodes ricinus nymphs, carrying the following tick-borne bacteria: Rickettsia helvetica (16.9%), Borrelia garinii (1.9%), Borrelia miyamotoi (1.6%), Anaplasma phagocytophilum (1.2%) and Candidatus Neoehrlichia mikurensis (0.4%). Fed ticks were screened for the pathogens after moulting to the next developmental phase. We found evidence for early transmission (within 2.75 days after exposure) of R. helvetica and B. garinii, and to a lesser extent of A. phagocytophilum based on the increased infection rates of ticks during the first infestation. The proportion of ticks infected with R. helvetica remained constant over the three infestations. In contrast, the infection rate of B. garinii in the ticks increased over the three infestations, indicating a more gradual development of host tissue infection. No interactions were found among the different bacterium species during transmission. Birds did not transmit or amplify the other bacterial species. We show that individual birds can transmit several pathogenic bacterium species at the same time using different mechanisms, and that the transmission facilitation by birds increases the frequency of co-infections in ticks. © 2015 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Dynamics of climate-based malaria transmission model with age-structured human population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Addawe, Joel; Pajimola, Aprimelle Kris

2016-10-01

In this paper, we proposed to study the dynamics of malaria transmission with periodic birth rate of the vector and an age-structure for the human population. The human population is divided into two compartments: pre-school (0-5 years) and the rest of the human population. We showed the existence of a disease-free equilibrium point. Using published epidemiological parameters, we use numerical simulations to show potential effect of climate change in the dynamics of age-structured malaria transmission. Numerical simulations suggest that there exists an asymptotically attractive solution that is positive and periodic.

Engineering science research issues in high power density transmission dynamics for aerospace applications. [rotorcraft geared rotors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Singh, Rajendra; Houser, Donald R.

1993-01-01

This paper discusses analytical and experimental approaches that will be needed to understand dynamic, vibro-acoustic and design characteristics of high power density rotorcraft transmissions. Complexities associated with mathematical modeling of such systems will be discussed. An overview of research work planned during the next several years will be presented, with emphasis on engineering science issues such as gear contact mechanics, multi-mesh drive dynamics, parameter uncertainties, vibration transmission through bearings, and vibro-acoustic characteristics of geared rotor systems and housing-mount structures. A few examples of work in progress are cited.

Research on cost control and management in high voltage transmission line construction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Xiaobin

2017-05-01

Enterprises. The cost control is of vital importance to the construction enterprises. It is the key to the profitability of the transmission line project, which is related to the survival and development of the electric power construction enterprises. Due to the long construction line, complex and changeable construction terrain as well as large construction costs of transmission line, it is difficult for us to take accurate and effective cost control on the project implementation of entire transmission line. Therefore, the cost control of transmission line project is a complicated and arduous task. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the cost control scheme of transmission line project by a more scientific and efficient way. Based on the characteristics of the construction project of the transmission line project, this paper analyzes the construction cost structure of the transmission line project and the current cost control problem of the transmission line project, and demonstrates the necessity and feasibility of studying the cost control scheme of the transmission line project more accurately. In this way, the dynamic cycle cost control process including plan, implementation, feedback, correction, modification and re-implement is achieved to realize the accurate and effective cost control of entire electric power transmission line project.

Temporal dynamics of Puumala hantavirus infection in cyclic populations of bank voles.

PubMed

Voutilainen, Liina; Kallio, Eva R; Niemimaa, Jukka; Vapalahti, Olli; Henttonen, Heikki

2016-02-18

Understanding the dynamics of zoonotic pathogens in their reservoir host populations is a prerequisite for predicting and preventing human disease epidemics. The human infection risk of Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) is highest in northern Europe, where populations of the rodent host (bank vole, Myodes glareolus) undergo cyclic fluctuations. We conducted a 7-year capture-mark-recapture study to monitor seasonal and multiannual patterns of the PUUV infection rate in bank vole populations exhibiting a 3-year density cycle. Infected bank voles were most abundant in mid-winter months during years of increasing or peak host density. Prevalence of PUUV infection in bank voles exhibited a regular, seasonal pattern reflecting the annual population turnover and accumulation of infections within each year cohort. In autumn, the PUUV transmission rate tracked increasing host abundance, suggesting a density-dependent transmission. However, prevalence of PUUV infection was similar during the increase and peak years of the density cycle despite a twofold difference in host density. This may result from the high proportion of individuals carrying maternal antibodies constraining transmission during the cycle peak years. Our exceptionally intensive and long-term dataset provides a solid basis on which to develop models to predict the dynamic public health threat posed by PUUV in northern Europe.

Global Migration Dynamics Underlie Evolution and Persistence of Human Influenza A (H3N2)

PubMed Central

Bedford, Trevor; Cobey, Sarah; Beerli, Peter; Pascual, Mercedes

2010-01-01

The global migration patterns of influenza viruses have profound implications for the evolutionary and epidemiological dynamics of the disease. We developed a novel approach to reconstruct the genetic history of human influenza A (H3N2) collected worldwide over 1998 to 2009 and used it to infer the global network of influenza transmission. Consistent with previous models, we find that China and Southeast Asia lie at the center of this global network. However, we also find that strains of influenza circulate outside of Asia for multiple seasons, persisting through dynamic migration between northern and southern regions. The USA acts as the primary hub of temperate transmission and, together with China and Southeast Asia, forms the trunk of influenza's evolutionary tree. These findings suggest that antiviral use outside of China and Southeast Asia may lead to the evolution of long-term local and potentially global antiviral resistance. Our results might also aid the design of surveillance efforts and of vaccines better tailored to different geographic regions. PMID:20523898

Modelling malaria control by introduction of larvivorous fish.

PubMed

Lou, Yijun; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

2011-10-01

Malaria creates serious health and economic problems which call for integrated management strategies to disrupt interactions among mosquitoes, the parasite and humans. In order to reduce the intensity of malaria transmission, malaria vector control may be implemented to protect individuals against infective mosquito bites. As a sustainable larval control method, the use of larvivorous fish is promoted in some circumstances. To evaluate the potential impacts of this biological control measure on malaria transmission, we propose and investigate a mathematical model describing the linked dynamics between the host-vector interaction and the predator-prey interaction. The model, which consists of five ordinary differential equations, is rigorously analysed via theories and methods of dynamical systems. We derive four biologically plausible and insightful quantities (reproduction numbers) that completely determine the community composition. Our results suggest that the introduction of larvivorous fish can, in principle, have important consequences for malaria dynamics, but also indicate that this would require strong predators on larval mosquitoes. Integrated strategies of malaria control are analysed to demonstrate the biological application of our developed theory.

Advanced Gas Turbine (AGT) powertrain system development for automotive applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1980-01-01

Progress in the development of a gas turbine engine to improve fuel economy, reduce gaseous emissions and particulate levels, and compatible with a variety of alternate fuels is reported. The powertrain is designated AGT101 and consists of a regenerated single shaft gas turbine engine, a split differential gearbox and a Ford Automatic Overdrive production transmission. The powertrain is controlled by an electronic digital microprocessor and associated actuators, instrumentation, and sensors. Standard automotive accessories are driven by engine power provided by an accessory pad on the gearbox. Component/subsystem development progress is reported in the following areas: compressor, turbine, combustion system, regenerator, gearbox/transmission, structures, ceramic components, foil gas bearing, bearings and seals, rotor dynamics, and controls and accessories.

Contrasting Transmission Dynamics of Co-endemic Plasmodium vivax and P. falciparum: Implications for Malaria Control and Elimination.

PubMed

Noviyanti, Rintis; Coutrier, Farah; Utami, Retno A S; Trimarsanto, Hidayat; Tirta, Yusrifar K; Trianty, Leily; Kusuma, Andreas; Sutanto, Inge; Kosasih, Ayleen; Kusriastuti, Rita; Hawley, William A; Laihad, Ferdinand; Lobo, Neil; Marfurt, Jutta; Clark, Taane G; Price, Ric N; Auburn, Sarah

2015-05-01

Outside of Africa, P. falciparum and P. vivax usually coexist. In such co-endemic regions, successful malaria control programs have a greater impact on reducing falciparum malaria, resulting in P. vivax becoming the predominant species of infection. Adding to the challenges of elimination, the dormant liver stage complicates efforts to monitor the impact of ongoing interventions against P. vivax. We investigated molecular approaches to inform the respective transmission dynamics of P. falciparum and P. vivax and how these could help to prioritize public health interventions. Genotype data generated at 8 and 9 microsatellite loci were analysed in 168 P. falciparum and 166 P. vivax isolates, respectively, from four co-endemic sites in Indonesia (Bangka, Kalimantan, Sumba and West Timor). Measures of diversity, linkage disequilibrium (LD) and population structure were used to gauge the transmission dynamics of each species in each setting. Marked differences were observed in the diversity and population structure of P. vivax versus P. falciparum. In Bangka, Kalimantan and Timor, P. falciparum diversity was low, and LD patterns were consistent with unstable, epidemic transmission, amenable to targeted intervention. In contrast, P. vivax diversity was higher and transmission appeared more stable. Population differentiation was lower in P. vivax versus P. falciparum, suggesting that the hypnozoite reservoir might play an important role in sustaining local transmission and facilitating the spread of P. vivax infections in different endemic settings. P. vivax polyclonality varied with local endemicity, demonstrating potential utility in informing on transmission intensity in this species. Molecular approaches can provide important information on malaria transmission that is not readily available from traditional epidemiological measures. Elucidation of the transmission dynamics circulating in a given setting will have a major role in prioritising malaria control strategies, particularly against the relatively neglected non-falciparum species.

Uncovering the transmission dynamics of Plasmodium vivax using population genetics

PubMed Central

Barry, Alyssa E.; Waltmann, Andreea; Koepfli, Cristian; Barnadas, Celine; Mueller, Ivo

2015-01-01

Population genetic analysis of malaria parasites has the power to reveal key insights into malaria epidemiology and transmission dynamics with the potential to deliver tools to support control and elimination efforts. Analyses of parasite genetic diversity have suggested that Plasmodium vivax populations are more genetically diverse and less structured than those of Plasmodium falciparum indicating that P. vivax may be a more ancient parasite of humans and/or less susceptible to population bottlenecks, as well as more efficient at disseminating its genes. These population genetic insights into P. vivax transmission dynamics provide an explanation for its relative resilience to control efforts. Here, we describe current knowledge on P. vivax population genetic structure, its relevance to understanding transmission patterns and relapse and how this information can inform malaria control and elimination programmes. PMID:25891915

How robust are the natural history parameters used in chlamydia transmission dynamic models? A systematic review.

PubMed

Davies, Bethan; Anderson, Sarah-Jane; Turner, Katy M E; Ward, Helen

2014-01-30

Transmission dynamic models linked to economic analyses often form part of the decision making process when introducing new chlamydia screening interventions. Outputs from these transmission dynamic models can vary depending on the values of the parameters used to describe the infection. Therefore these values can have an important influence on policy and resource allocation. The risk of progression from infection to pelvic inflammatory disease has been extensively studied but the parameters which govern the transmission dynamics are frequently neglected. We conducted a systematic review of transmission dynamic models linked to economic analyses of chlamydia screening interventions to critically assess the source and variability of the proportion of infections that are asymptomatic, the duration of infection and the transmission probability. We identified nine relevant studies in Pubmed, Embase and the Cochrane database. We found that there is a wide variation in their natural history parameters, including an absolute difference in the proportion of asymptomatic infections of 25% in women and 75% in men, a six-fold difference in the duration of asymptomatic infection and a four-fold difference in the per act transmission probability. We consider that much of this variation can be explained by a lack of consensus in the literature. We found that a significant proportion of parameter values were referenced back to the early chlamydia literature, before the introduction of nucleic acid modes of diagnosis and the widespread testing of asymptomatic individuals. In conclusion, authors should use high quality contemporary evidence to inform their parameter values, clearly document their assumptions and make appropriate use of sensitivity analysis. This will help to make models more transparent and increase their utility to policy makers.

Effect of structural mount dynamics on a pair of operating Stirling Convertors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodnight, Thomas W.; Suárez, Vicente J.; Hughes, William O.; Samorezov, Sergey

2002-01-01

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), in conjunction with NASA John H. Glenn Research Center and Stirling Technology Company, are currently developing a Stirling convertor for a Stirling Radioisotope Generator (SRG). NASA Headquarters and DOE have identified the SRG for potential use as an advanced spacecraft power system for future NASA deep-space and Mars surface missions. Low-level dynamic base-shake tests were conducted on a dynamic simulation of the structural mount for a pair of Operating Stirling Convertors. These tests were conducted at NASA Glenn Research Center's Structural Dynamics Laboratory as part of the development of this technology. The purpose of these tests was to identify the changes in transmissibility and the effect on structural dynamic response on a pair of operating Stirling Technology Demonstration Convertors (TDCs). This paper addresses the base-shake test, setup, procedure and results conducted on the Stirling TDC mount simulator in April 2001. .

Film characteristics pertinent to coherent optical data processing systems.

PubMed

Thomas, C E

1972-08-01

Photographic film is studied quantitatively as the input mechanism for coherent optical data recording and processing systems. The two important film characteristics are the amplitude transmission vs exposure (T(A) - E) curve and the film noise power spectral density. Both functions are measured as a function of the type of film, the type of developer, developer time and temperature, and the exposing and readout light wavelengths. A detailed analysis of a coherent optical spatial frequency analyzer reveals that the optimum do bias point for 649-F film is an amplitude transmission of about 70%. This operating point yields minimum harmonic and intermodulation distortion, whereas the 50% amplitude transmission bias point recommended by holographers yields maximum diffraction efficiency. It is also shown that the effective ac gain or contrast of the film is nearly independent of the development conditions for a given film. Finally, the linear dynamic range of one particular coherent optical spatial frequency analyzer is shown to be about 40-50 dB.

Transmission dynamics of an insect-specific flavivirus in a naturally infected Culex pipiens laboratory colony and effects of co-infection on vector competence for West Nile virus.

PubMed

Bolling, Bethany G; Olea-Popelka, Francisco J; Eisen, Lars; Moore, Chester G; Blair, Carol D

2012-06-05

We established a laboratory colony of Culex pipiens mosquitoes from eggs collected in Colorado and discovered that mosquitoes in the colony are naturally infected with Culex flavivirus (CxFV), an insect-specific flavivirus. In this study we examined transmission dynamics of CxFV and effects of persistent CxFV infection on vector competence for West Nile virus (WNV). We found that vertical transmission is the primary mechanism for persistence of CxFV in Cx. pipiens, with venereal transmission potentially playing a minor role. Vector competence experiments indicated possible early suppression of WNV replication by persistent CxFV infection in Cx. pipiens. This is the first description of insect-specific flavivirus transmission dynamics in a naturally infected mosquito colony and the observation of delayed dissemination of superinfecting WNV suggests that the presence of CxFV may impact the intensity of enzootic transmission of WNV and the risk of human exposure to this important pathogen. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Characteristics of Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Transmission Dynamics in South Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Yunhwan; Lee, Sunmi; Chu, Chaeshin; Choe, Seoyun; Hong, Saeme; Shin, Youngseo

2016-02-01

The outbreak of Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) was one of the major events in South Korea in 2015. In particular, this study pays attention to formulating a mathematical model for MERS transmission dynamics and estimating transmission rates. Incidence data of MERS-CoV from the government authority was analyzed for the first aim and a mathematical model was built and analyzed for the second aim of the study. A mathematical model for MERS-CoV transmission dynamics is used to estimate the transmission rates in two periods due to the implementation of intensive interventions. Using the estimates of the transmission rates, the basic reproduction number was estimated in two periods. Due to the superspreader, the basic reproduction number was very large in the first period; however, the basic reproduction number of the second period has reduced significantly after intensive interventions. It turned out to be the intensive isolation and quarantine interventions that were the most critical factors that prevented the spread of the MERS outbreak. The results are expected to be useful to devise more efficient intervention strategies in the future.

The dynamic response and shock-recovery of porcine skeletal muscle tissue

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilgeroth, James Michael; Hazell, Paul; Appleby-Thomas, Gareth James

2012-03-01

A soft-capture system allowing for one-dimensional shock loading and release of soft tissues via the plate-impact technique has been developed. In addition, we present the numerical simulation of a shock-recovery experiment involving porcine skeletal muscle and further investigate the effects of the transient wave on the structure of the tissue via transmission electron microscope (TEM). This paper forms part of an ongoing research programme on the dynamic behaviour of skeletal muscle tissue.

Disrupting Mosquito Reproduction and Parasite Development for Malaria Control

PubMed Central

Gabrieli, Paolo; Buckee, Caroline O.; Catteruccia, Flaminia

2016-01-01

The control of mosquito populations with insecticide treated bed nets and indoor residual sprays remains the cornerstone of malaria reduction and elimination programs. In light of widespread insecticide resistance in mosquitoes, however, alternative strategies for reducing transmission by the mosquito vector are urgently needed, including the identification of safe compounds that affect vectorial capacity via mechanisms that differ from fast-acting insecticides. Here, we show that compounds targeting steroid hormone signaling disrupt multiple biological processes that are key to the ability of mosquitoes to transmit malaria. When an agonist of the steroid hormone 20-hydroxyecdysone (20E) is applied to Anopheles gambiae females, which are the dominant malaria mosquito vector in Sub Saharan Africa, it substantially shortens lifespan, prevents insemination and egg production, and significantly blocks Plasmodium falciparum development, three components that are crucial to malaria transmission. Modeling the impact of these effects on Anopheles population dynamics and Plasmodium transmission predicts that disrupting steroid hormone signaling using 20E agonists would affect malaria transmission to a similar extent as insecticides. Manipulating 20E pathways therefore provides a powerful new approach to tackle malaria transmission by the mosquito vector, particularly in areas affected by the spread of insecticide resistance. PMID:27977810

Joint effects of climate variability and socioecological factors on dengue transmission: epidemiological evidence.

PubMed

Akter, Rokeya; Hu, Wenbiao; Naish, Suchithra; Banu, Shahera; Tong, Shilu

2017-06-01

To assess the epidemiological evidence on the joint effects of climate variability and socioecological factors on dengue transmission. Following PRISMA guidelines, a detailed literature search was conducted in PubMed, Web of Science and Scopus. Peer-reviewed, freely available and full-text articles, considering both climate and socioecological factors in relation to dengue, published in English from January 1993 to October 2015 were included in this review. Twenty studies have met the inclusion criteria and assessed the impact of both climatic and socioecological factors on dengue dynamics. Among those, four studies have further investigated the relative importance of climate variability and socioecological factors on dengue transmission. A few studies also developed predictive models including both climatic and socioecological factors. Due to insufficient data, methodological issues and contextual variability of the studies, it is hard to draw conclusion on the joint effects of climate variability and socioecological factors on dengue transmission. Future research should take into account socioecological factors in combination with climate variables for a better understanding of the complex nature of dengue transmission as well as for improving the predictive capability of dengue forecasting models, to develop effective and reliable early warning systems. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A Vision for Co-optimized T&D System Interaction with Renewables and Demand Response

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, Lindsay; Zéphyr, Luckny; Cardell, Judith B.

The evolution of the power system to the reliable, efficient and sustainable system of the future will involve development of both demand- and supply-side technology and operations. The use of demand response to counterbalance the intermittency of renewable generation brings the consumer into the spotlight. Though individual consumers are interconnected at the low-voltage distribution system, these resources are typically modeled as variables at the transmission network level. In this paper, a vision for cooptimized interaction of distribution systems, or microgrids, with the high-voltage transmission system is described. In this framework, microgrids encompass consumers, distributed renewables and storage. The energy managementmore » system of the microgrid can also sell (buy) excess (necessary) energy from the transmission system. Preliminary work explores price mechanisms to manage the microgrid and its interactions with the transmission system. Wholesale market operations are addressed through the development of scalable stochastic optimization methods that provide the ability to co-optimize interactions between the transmission and distribution systems. Modeling challenges of the co-optimization are addressed via solution methods for large-scale stochastic optimization, including decomposition and stochastic dual dynamic programming.« less

Modal Damping Ratio and Optimal Elastic Moduli of Human Body Segments for Anthropometric Vibratory Model of Standing Subjects.

PubMed

Gupta, Manoj; Gupta, T C

2017-10-01

The present study aims to accurately estimate inertial, physical, and dynamic parameters of human body vibratory model consistent with physical structure of the human body that also replicates its dynamic response. A 13 degree-of-freedom (DOF) lumped parameter model for standing person subjected to support excitation is established. Model parameters are determined from anthropometric measurements, uniform mass density, elastic modulus of individual body segments, and modal damping ratios. Elastic moduli of ellipsoidal body segments are initially estimated by comparing stiffness of spring elements, calculated from a detailed scheme, and values available in literature for same. These values are further optimized by minimizing difference between theoretically calculated platform-to-head transmissibility ratio (TR) and experimental measurements. Modal damping ratios are estimated from experimental transmissibility response using two dominant peaks in the frequency range of 0-25 Hz. From comparison between dynamic response determined form modal analysis and experimental results, a set of elastic moduli for different segments of human body and a novel scheme to determine modal damping ratios from TR plots, are established. Acceptable match between transmissibility values calculated from the vibratory model and experimental measurements for 50th percentile U.S. male, except at very low frequencies, establishes the human body model developed. Also, reasonable agreement obtained between theoretical response curve and experimental response envelop for average Indian male, affirms the technique used for constructing vibratory model of a standing person. Present work attempts to develop effective technique for constructing subject specific damped vibratory model based on its physical measurements.

Dynamics of African swine fever virus shedding and excretion in domestic pigs infected by intramuscular inoculation and contact transmission.

PubMed

Guinat, Claire; Reis, Ana Luisa; Netherton, Christopher L; Goatley, Lynnette; Pfeiffer, Dirk U; Dixon, Linda

2014-09-26

African swine fever virus (ASFV) is a highly virulent swine pathogen that has spread across Eastern Europe since 2007 and for which there is no effective vaccine or treatment available. The dynamics of shedding and excretion is not well known for this currently circulating ASFV strain. Therefore, susceptible pigs were exposed to pigs intramuscularly infected with the Georgia 2007/1 ASFV strain to measure those dynamics through within- and between-pen transmission scenarios. Blood, oral, nasal and rectal fluid samples were tested for the presence of ASFV by virus titration (VT) and quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR). Serum was tested for the presence of ASFV-specific antibodies. Both intramuscular inoculation and contact transmission resulted in development of acute disease in all pigs although the experiments indicated that the pathogenesis of the disease might be different, depending on the route of infection. Infectious ASFV was first isolated in blood among the inoculated pigs by day 3, and then chronologically among the direct and indirect contact pigs, by day 10 and 13, respectively. Close to the onset of clinical signs, higher ASFV titres were found in blood compared with nasal and rectal fluid samples among all pigs. No infectious ASFV was isolated in oral fluid samples although ASFV genome copies were detected. Only one animal developed antibodies starting after 12 days post-inoculation. The results provide quantitative data on shedding and excretion of the Georgia 2007/1 ASFV strain among domestic pigs and suggest a limited potential of this isolate to cause persistent infection.

[Basic reproduction rate and its application in schistosomiasis].

PubMed

Yang, Guo-Jing

2013-02-01

A key parameter in the transmission dynamics of schistosomiasis, namely basic reproduction rate (R0) is introduced in this paper, as well as its epidemiological significance, formulas in mathematical models of schistosomiasis transmission dynamics, and its application in the evaluation of schistosomiasis control measures. It suggests that the studies on transmission thresholds such as R0 are of important theoretical guiding significance to the establishment of a schistosomiasis elimination standard in China.

Spatial panorama of malaria prevalence in Africa under climate change and interventions scenarios.

PubMed

Moukam Kakmeni, Francois M; Guimapi, Ritter Y A; Ndjomatchoua, Frank T; Pedro, Sansoa A; Mutunga, James; Tonnang, Henri E Z

2018-01-16

Malaria is highly sensitive to climatic variables and is strongly influenced by the presence of vectors in a region that further contribute to parasite development and sustained disease transmission. Mathematical analysis of malaria transmission through the use and application of the value of the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) threshold is an important and useful tool for the understanding of disease patterns. Temperature dependence aspect of R 0 obtained from dynamical mathematical network model was used to derive the spatial distribution maps for malaria transmission under different climatic and intervention scenarios. Model validation was conducted using MARA map and the Annual Plasmodium falciparum Entomological Inoculation Rates for Africa. The inclusion of the coupling between patches in dynamical model seems to have no effects on the estimate of the optimal temperature (about 25 °C) for malaria transmission. In patches environment, we were able to establish a threshold value (about α = 5) representing the ratio between the migration rates from one patch to another that has no effect on the magnitude of R 0 . Such findings allow us to limit the production of the spatial distribution map of R 0 to a single patch model. Future projections using temperature changes indicated a shift in malaria transmission areas towards the southern and northern areas of Africa and the application of the interventions scenario yielded a considerable reduction in transmission within malaria endemic areas of the continent. The approach employed here is a sole study that defined the limits of contemporary malaria transmission, using R 0 derived from a dynamical mathematical model. It has offered a unique prospect for measuring the impacts of interventions through simple manipulation of model parameters. Projections at scale provide options to visualize and query the results, when linked to the human population could potentially deliver adequate highlight on the number of individuals at risk of malaria infection across Africa. The findings provide a reasonable basis for understanding the fundamental effects of malaria control and could contribute towards disease elimination, which is considered as a challenge especially in the context of climate change.

Successes and shortcomings of polio eradication: a transmission modeling analysis.

PubMed

Mayer, Bryan T; Eisenberg, Joseph N S; Henry, Christopher J; Gomes, M Gabriela M; Ionides, Edward L; Koopman, James S

2013-06-01

Polio eradication is on the cusp of success, with only a few regions still maintaining transmission. Improving our understanding of why some regions have been successful and others have not will help with both global eradication of polio and development of more effective vaccination strategies for other pathogens. To examine the past 25 years of eradication efforts, we constructed a transmission model for wild poliovirus that incorporates waning immunity (which affects both infection risk and transmissibility of any resulting infection), age-mediated vaccination rates, and transmission of oral polio vaccine. The model produces results consistent with the 4 country categories defined by the Global Polio Eradication Program: elimination with no subsequent outbreaks; elimination with subsequent transient outbreaks; elimination with subsequent outbreaks and transmission detected for more than 12 months; and endemic polio transmission. Analysis of waning immunity rates and oral polio vaccine transmissibility reveals that higher waning immunity rates make eradication more difficult because of increasing numbers of infectious adults, and that higher oral polio vaccine transmission rates make eradication easier as adults become reimmunized. Given these dynamic properties, attention should be given to intervention strategies that complement childhood vaccination. For example, improvement in sanitation can reduce the reproduction number in problematic regions, and adult vaccination can lower adult transmission.

Analysis of Influenza and RSV dynamics in the community using a ‘Local Transmission Zone’ approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almogy, Gal; Stone, Lewi; Bernevig, B. Andrei; Wolf, Dana G.; Dorozko, Marina; Moses, Allon E.; Nir-Paz, Ran

2017-02-01

Understanding the dynamics of pathogen spread within urban areas is critical for the effective prevention and containment of communicable diseases. At these relatively small geographic scales, short-distance interactions and tightly knit sub-networks dominate the dynamics of pathogen transmission; yet, the effective boundaries of these micro-scale groups are generally not known and often ignored. Using clinical test results from hospital admitted patients we analyze the spatio-temporal distribution of Influenza Like Illness (ILI) in the city of Jerusalem over a period of three winter seasons. We demonstrate that this urban area is not a single, perfectly mixed ecology, but is in fact comprised of a set of more basic, relatively independent pathogen transmission units, which we term here Local Transmission Zones, LTZs. By identifying these LTZs, and using the dynamic pathogen-content information contained within them, we are able to differentiate between disease-causes at the individual patient level often with near-perfect predictive accuracy.

Comprehensive Modeling and Analysis of Rotorcraft Variable Speed Propulsion System With Coupled Engine/Transmission/Rotor Dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeSmidt, Hans A.; Smith, Edward C.; Bill, Robert C.; Wang, Kon-Well

2013-01-01

This project develops comprehensive modeling and simulation tools for analysis of variable rotor speed helicopter propulsion system dynamics. The Comprehensive Variable-Speed Rotorcraft Propulsion Modeling (CVSRPM) tool developed in this research is used to investigate coupled rotor/engine/fuel control/gearbox/shaft/clutch/flight control system dynamic interactions for several variable rotor speed mission scenarios. In this investigation, a prototypical two-speed Dual-Clutch Transmission (DCT) is proposed and designed to achieve 50 percent rotor speed variation. The comprehensive modeling tool developed in this study is utilized to analyze the two-speed shift response of both a conventional single rotor helicopter and a tiltrotor drive system. In the tiltrotor system, both a Parallel Shift Control (PSC) strategy and a Sequential Shift Control (SSC) strategy for constant and variable forward speed mission profiles are analyzed. Under the PSC strategy, selecting clutch shift-rate results in a design tradeoff between transient engine surge margins and clutch frictional power dissipation. In the case of SSC, clutch power dissipation is drastically reduced in exchange for the necessity to disengage one engine at a time which requires a multi-DCT drive system topology. In addition to comprehensive simulations, several sections are dedicated to detailed analysis of driveline subsystem components under variable speed operation. In particular an aeroelastic simulation of a stiff in-plane rotor using nonlinear quasi-steady blade element theory was conducted to investigate variable speed rotor dynamics. It was found that 2/rev and 4/rev flap and lag vibrations were significant during resonance crossings with 4/rev lagwise loads being directly transferred into drive-system torque disturbances. To capture the clutch engagement dynamics, a nonlinear stick-slip clutch torque model is developed. Also, a transient gas-turbine engine model based on first principles mean-line compressor and turbine approximations is developed. Finally an analysis of high frequency gear dynamics including the effect of tooth mesh stiffness variation under variable speed operation is conducted including experimental validation. Through exploring the interactions between the various subsystems, this investigation provides important insights into the continuing development of variable-speed rotorcraft propulsion systems.

An SIR-Dengue transmission model with seasonal effects and impulsive control.

PubMed

Páez Chávez, Joseph; Götz, Thomas; Siegmund, Stefan; Wijaya, Karunia Putra

2017-07-01

In recent decades, Dengue fever and its deadly complications, such as Dengue hemorrhagic fever, have become one of the major mosquito-transmitted diseases, with an estimate of 390 million cases occurring annually in over 100 tropical and subtropical countries, most of which belonging to the developing world. Empirical evidence indicates that the most effective mechanism to reduce Dengue infections is to combat the disease-carrying vector, which is often implemented via chemical pesticides to destroy mosquitoes in their adult or larval stages. The present paper considers an SIR epidemiological model describing the vector-to-host and host-to-vector transmission dynamics. The model includes pesticide control represented in terms of periodic impulsive perturbations, as well as seasonal fluctuations of the vector growth and transmission rates of the disease. The effectiveness of the control strategy is studied numerically in detail by means of path-following techniques for non-smooth dynamical systems. Special attention is given to determining the optimal timing of the pesticide applications, in such a way that the number of infections and the required amount of pesticide are minimized. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Theoretical constraints in the design of multivariable control systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rynaski, E. G.; Mook, D. J.

1993-01-01

The theoretical constraints inherent in the design of multivariable control systems were defined and investigated. These constraints are manifested by the system transmission zeros that limit or bound the areas in which closed loop poles and individual transfer function zeros may be placed. These constraints were investigated primarily in the context of system decoupling or non-interaction. It was proven that decoupling requires the placement of closed loop poles at the system transmission zeros. Therefore, the system transmission zeros must be minimum phase to guarantee a stable decoupled system. Once decoupling has been accomplished, the remaining part of the system exhibits transmission zeros at infinity, so nearly complete design freedom is possible in terms of placing both poles and zeros of individual closed loop transfer functions. A general, dynamic inversion model following system architecture was developed that encompasses both the implicit and explicit configuration. Robustness properties are developed along with other attributes of this type of system. Finally, a direct design is developed for the longitudinal-vertical degrees of freedom of aircraft motion to show how a direct lift flap can be used to improve the pitch-heave maneuvering coordination for enhanced flying qualities.

Seasonality and comparative dynamics of six childhood infections in pre-vaccination Copenhagen

PubMed Central

Metcalf, C. Jessica E.; Bjørnstad, Ottar N.; Grenfell, Bryan T.; Andreasen, Viggo

2009-01-01

Seasonal variation in infection transmission is a key determinant of epidemic dynamics of acute infections. For measles, the best-understood strongly immunizing directly transmitted childhood infection, the perception is that term-time forcing is the main driver of seasonality in developed countries. The degree to which this holds true across other acute immunizing childhood infections is not clear. Here, we identify seasonal transmission patterns using a unique long-term dataset with weekly incidence of six infections including measles. Data on age–incidence allow us to quantify the mean age of infection. Results indicate correspondence between dips in transmission and school holidays for some infections, but there are puzzling discrepancies, despite close correspondence between average age of infection and age of schooling. Theoretical predictions of the relationship between amplitude of seasonality and basic reproductive rate of infections that should result from term-time forcing are also not upheld. We conclude that where yearly trajectories of susceptible numbers are perturbed, e.g. via waning of immunity, seasonality is unlikely to be entirely driven by term-time forcing. For the three bacterial infections, pertussis, scarlet fever and diphtheria, there is additionally a strong increase in transmission during the late summer before the end of school vacations. PMID:19740885

Transmission dynamics of the recently-identified BYD virus causing duck egg-drop syndrome.

PubMed

Vaidya, Naveen K; Wang, Feng-bin; Zou, Xingfu; Wahl, Lindi M

2012-01-01

Baiyangdian (BYD) virus is a recently-identified mosquito-borne flavivirus that causes severe disease in ducks, with extremely rapid transmission, up to 15% mortality within 10 days and 90% reduction in egg production on duck farms within 5 days of infection. Because of the zoonotic nature of flaviviruses, the characterization of BYD virus and its epidemiology are important public health concerns. Here, we develop a mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of this novel virus. We validate the model against BYD outbreak data collected from duck farms in Southeast China, as well as experimental data obtained from an animal facility. Based on our model, the basic reproductive number of BYD virus is high (R(0) = 21) indicating that this virus is highly transmissible, consistent with the dramatic epidemiology observed in BYDV-affected duck farms. Our results indicate that younger ducks are more vulnerable to BYD disease and that ducks infected with BYD virus reduce egg production (to about 33% on average) for about 3 days post-infection; after 3 days infected ducks are no longer able to produce eggs. Using our model, we predict that control measures which reduce contact between mosquitoes and ducks such as mosquito nets are more effective than insecticides.

Transmission intensity and drug resistance in malaria population dynamics: implications for climate change.

PubMed

Artzy-Randrup, Yael; Alonso, David; Pascual, Mercedes

2010-10-26

Although the spread of drug resistance and the influence of climate change on malaria are most often considered separately, these factors have the potential to interact through altered levels of transmission intensity. The influence of transmission intensity on the evolution of drug resistance has been addressed in theoretical studies from a population genetics' perspective; less is known however on how epidemiological dynamics at the population level modulates this influence. We ask from a theoretical perspective, whether population dynamics can explain non-trivial, non-monotonic, patterns of treatment failure with transmission intensity, and, if so, under what conditions. We then address the implications of warmer temperatures in an East African highland, where, as in other similar regions at the altitudinal edge of malaria's distribution, there has been a pronounced increase of cases from the 1970s to the 1990s. Our theoretical analyses, with a transmission model that includes different levels of immunity, demonstrate that an increase in transmission beyond a threshold can lead to a decrease in drug resistance, as previously shown, but that a second threshold may occur and lead to the re-establishment of drug resistance. Estimates of the increase in transmission intensity from the 1970s to the 1990s for the Kenyan time series, obtained by fitting the two-stage version of the model with an explicit representation of vector dynamics, suggest that warmer temperatures are likely to have moved the system towards the first threshold, and in so doing, to have promoted the faster spread of drug resistance. Climate change and drug resistance can interact and need not be considered as alternative explanations for trends in disease incidence in this region. Non-monotonic patterns of treatment failure with transmission intensity similar to those described as the 'valley phenomenon' for Uganda can result from epidemiological dynamics but under poorly understood assumptions.

System for computer controlled shifting of an automatic transmission

DOEpatents

Patil, Prabhakar B.

1989-01-01

In an automotive vehicle having an automatic transmission that driveably connects a power source to the driving wheels, a method to control the application of hydraulic pressure to a clutch, whose engagement produces an upshift and whose disengagement produces a downshift, the speed of the power source, and the output torque of the transmission. The transmission output shaft torque and the power source speed are the controlled variables. The commanded power source torque and commanded hydraulic pressure supplied to the clutch are the control variables. A mathematical model is formulated that describes the kinematics and dynamics of the powertrain before, during and after a gear shift. The model represents the operating characteristics of each component and the structural arrangement of the components within the transmission being controlled. Next, a close loop feedback control is developed to determine the proper control law or compensation strategy to achieve an acceptably smooth gear ratio change, one in which the output torque disturbance is kept to a minimum and the duration of the shift is minimized. Then a computer algorithm simulating the shift dynamics employing the mathematical model is used to study the effects of changes in the values of the parameters established from a closed loop control of the clutch hydraulic and the power source torque on the shift quality. This computer simulation is used also to establish possible shift control strategies. The shift strategies determine from the prior step are reduced to an algorithm executed by a computer to control the operation of the power source and the transmission.

Closed loop computer control for an automatic transmission

DOEpatents

Patil, Prabhakar B.

1989-01-01

In an automotive vehicle having an automatic transmission that driveably connects a power source to the driving wheels, a method to control the application of hydraulic pressure to a clutch, whose engagement produces an upshift and whose disengagement produces a downshift, the speed of the power source, and the output torque of the transmission. The transmission output shaft torque and the power source speed are the controlled variables. The commanded power source torque and commanded hydraulic pressure supplied to the clutch are the control variables. A mathematical model is formulated that describes the kinematics and dynamics of the powertrain before, during and after a gear shift. The model represents the operating characteristics of each component and the structural arrangement of the components within the transmission being controlled. Next, a close loop feedback control is developed to determine the proper control law or compensation strategy to achieve an acceptably smooth gear ratio change, one in which the output torque disturbance is kept to a minimum and the duration of the shift is minimized. Then a computer algorithm simulating the shift dynamics employing the mathematical model is used to study the effects of changes in the values of the parameters established from a closed loop control of the clutch hydraulic and the power source torque on the shift quality. This computer simulation is used also to establish possible shift control strategies. The shift strategies determined from the prior step are reduced to an algorithm executed by a computer to control the operation of the power source and the transmission.

Comparative Ability of Oropsylla montana and Xenopsylla cheopis Fleas to Transmit Yersinia pestis by Two Different Mechanisms

PubMed Central

Bland, David M.; Bosio, Christopher F.; Jarrett, Clayton O.

2017-01-01

Background Transmission of Yersinia pestis by flea bite can occur by two mechanisms. After taking a blood meal from a bacteremic mammal, fleas have the potential to transmit the very next time they feed. This early-phase transmission resembles mechanical transmission in some respects, but the mechanism is unknown. Thereafter, transmission occurs after Yersinia pestis forms a biofilm in the proventricular valve in the flea foregut. The biofilm can impede and sometimes completely block the ingestion of blood, resulting in regurgitative transmission of bacteria into the bite site. In this study, we compared the relative efficiency of the two modes of transmission for Xenopsylla cheopis, a flea known to become completely blocked at a high rate, and Oropsylla montana, a flea that has been considered to rarely develop proventricular blockage. Methodology/Principal findings Fleas that took an infectious blood meal containing Y. pestis were maintained and monitored for four weeks for infection and proventricular blockage. The number of Y. pestis transmitted by groups of fleas by the two modes of transmission was also determined. O. montana readily developed complete proventricular blockage, and large numbers of Y. pestis were transmitted by that mechanism both by it and by X. cheopis, a flea known to block at a high rate. In contrast, few bacteria were transmitted in the early phase by either species. Conclusions A model system incorporating standardized experimental conditions and viability controls was developed to more reliably compare the infection, proventricular blockage and transmission dynamics of different flea vectors, and was used to resolve a long-standing uncertainty concerning the vector competence of O. montana. Both X. cheopis and O. montana are fully capable of transmitting Y. pestis by the proventricular biofilm-dependent mechanism. PMID:28081130

Transmission dynamics of cholera: Mathematical modeling and control strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Gui-Quan; Xie, Jun-Hui; Huang, Sheng-He; Jin, Zhen; Li, Ming-Tao; Liu, Liqun

2017-04-01

Cholera, as an endemic disease around the world, has generated great threat to human society and caused enormous morbidity and mortality with weak surveillance system. In this paper, we propose a mathematical model to describe the transmission of Cholera. Moreover, basic reproduction number and the global dynamics of the dynamical model are obtained. Then we apply our model to characterize the transmission process of Cholera in China. It was found that, in order to avoid its outbreak in China, it may be better to increase immunization coverage rate and make effort to improve environmental management especially for drinking water. Our results may provide some new insights for elimination of Cholera.

A review of malaria transmission dynamics in forest ecosystems

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Malaria continues to be a major health problem in more than 100 endemic countries located primarily in tropical and sub-tropical regions around the world. Malaria transmission is a dynamic process and involves many interlinked factors, from uncontrollable natural environmental conditions to man-made disturbances to nature. Almost half of the population at risk of malaria lives in forest areas. Forests are hot beds of malaria transmission as they provide conditions such as vegetation cover, temperature, rainfall and humidity conditions that are conducive to distribution and survival of malaria vectors. Forests often lack infrastructure and harbor tribes with distinct genetic traits, socio-cultural beliefs and practices that greatly influence malaria transmission dynamics. Here we summarize the various topographical, entomological, parasitological, human ecological and socio-economic factors, which are crucial and shape malaria transmission in forested areas. An in-depth understanding and synthesis of the intricate relationship of these parameters in achieving better malaria control in various types of forest ecosystems is emphasized. PMID:24912923

Phylogenetic studies of transmission dynamics in generalized HIV epidemics: An essential tool where the burden is greatest?

PubMed Central

Dennis, Ann M.; Herbeck, Joshua T.; Brown, Andrew Leigh; Kellam, Paul; de Oliveira, Tulio; Pillay, Deenan; Fraser, Christophe; Cohen, Myron S.

2014-01-01

Efficient and effective HIV prevention measures for generalized epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa have not yet been validated at the population-level. Design and impact evaluation of such measures requires fine-scale understanding of local HIV transmission dynamics. The novel tools of HIV phylogenetics and molecular epidemiology may elucidate these transmission dynamics. Such methods have been incorporated into studies of concentrated HIV epidemics to identify proximate and determinant traits associated with ongoing transmission. However, applying similar phylogenetic analyses to generalized epidemics, including the design and evaluation of prevention trials, presents additional challenges. Here we review the scope of these methods and present examples of their use in concentrated epidemics in the context of prevention. Next, we describe the current uses for phylogenetics in generalized epidemics, and discuss their promise for elucidating transmission patterns and informing prevention trials. Finally, we review logistic and technical challenges inherent to large-scale molecular epidemiological studies of generalized epidemics, and suggest potential solutions. PMID:24977473

Effects of diversity, topography, and interannual climate variability on pathogen spillover

Treesearch

Whalen W. Dillon; Ross K. Meentemeyer; David M. Rizzo

2017-01-01

Our knowledge of sudden oak death (SOD) disease dynamics indicate that without bay laurel (Umbellularia californica) there is seldom oak (Quercus) infection. This requirement of an alternate host species for disease transmission to oak species is an example of pathogen spillover. We developed a path analysis to test...

Metamaterials as a Platform for the Development of Novel Materials for Energy Applications. Final Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Padilla, Willie

2016-02-11

Final report detailing the work performed on DESC0005240 at Boston College. Report details research into metamaterial absorber theory, thermophotovoltaics a dynamic 3 state material capable of switching between transmissive, reflective, and absorptive states. Also high temperature NIR metamaterials are explored.

Transverse vibration technique to identify deteriorated wood floor systems

Treesearch

R.J. Ross; X. Wang; M.O. Hunt; L.A. Soltis

2002-01-01

The Forest Products Laboratory, USDA Forest Service, has been developing nondestructive evaluation (NDE) techniques to identify degradation of wood in structures and the performance characteristics that remain in the structure. This work has focused on using dynamic testing techniques, particularly stress wave and ultrasonic transmission NDE techniques for both...

Molecular Communication over Gas Stream Channels using Portable Mass Spectrometry.

PubMed

Giannoukos, Stamatios; Marshall, Alan; Taylor, Stephen; Smith, Jeremy

2017-11-01

The synthetic generation/coding and transmission of olfactory information over a gas stream or an odor network is a new and unexplored field. Application areas vary from the entertainment or advertisement industry to security and telemedicine. However, current technological limitations frustrate the accurate reproduction of decoded and transmitted olfactory data. This study describes the development, testing, and characterization of a novel odor emitter (OE) that is used to investigate the generation-encoding of gaseous standards with odorous characteristics with a regulatable way, for scent transmission purposes. The calibration and the responses of a developed OE were examined using a portable quadrupole mass spectrometer (MS). Experiments were undertaken for a range of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) at different temperatures and flow rates. Individual compounds and mixtures were tested to investigate periodic and dynamic transmission characteristics within two different size tubular containers for distances up to 3 m. Olfactory information transmission is demonstrated using MS as the main molecular sensor for odor detection and monitoring and for the first time spatial encryption of olfactory information is shown. Graphical Abstract ᅟ.

Molecular Communication over Gas Stream Channels using Portable Mass Spectrometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giannoukos, Stamatios; Marshall, Alan; Taylor, Stephen; Smith, Jeremy

2017-07-01

The synthetic generation/coding and transmission of olfactory information over a gas stream or an odor network is a new and unexplored field. Application areas vary from the entertainment or advertisement industry to security and telemedicine. However, current technological limitations frustrate the accurate reproduction of decoded and transmitted olfactory data. This study describes the development, testing, and characterization of a novel odor emitter (OE) that is used to investigate the generation-encoding of gaseous standards with odorous characteristics with a regulatable way, for scent transmission purposes. The calibration and the responses of a developed OE were examined using a portable quadrupole mass spectrometer (MS). Experiments were undertaken for a range of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) at different temperatures and flow rates. Individual compounds and mixtures were tested to investigate periodic and dynamic transmission characteristics within two different size tubular containers for distances up to 3 m. Olfactory information transmission is demonstrated using MS as the main molecular sensor for odor detection and monitoring and for the first time spatial encryption of olfactory information is shown.

Analytical and experimental study of vibrations in a gear transmission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choy, F. K.; Ruan, Y. F.; Zakrajsek, J. J.; Oswald, Fred B.; Coy, J. J.

1991-01-01

An analytical simulation of the dynamics of a gear transmission system is presented and compared to experimental results from a gear noise test rig at the NASA Lewis Research Center. The analytical procedure developed couples the dynamic behaviors of the rotor-bearing-gear system with the response of the gearbox structure. The modal synthesis method is used in solving the overall dynamics of the system. Locally each rotor-gear stage is modeled as an individual rotor-bearing system using the matrix transfer technique. The dynamics of each individual rotor are coupled with other rotor stages through the nonlinear gear mesh forces and with the gearbox structure through bearing support systems. The modal characteristics of the gearbox structure are evaluated using the finite element procedure. A variable time steping integration routine is used to calculate the overall time transient behavior of the system in modal coordinates. The global dynamic behavior of the system is expressed in a generalized coordinate system. Transient and steady state vibrations of the gearbox system are presented in the time and frequency domains. The vibration characteristics of a simple single mesh gear noise test rig is modeled. The numerical simulations are compared to experimental data measured under typical operating conditions. The comparison of system natural frequencies, peak vibration amplitudes, and gear mesh frequencies are generally in good agreement.

Investigation of vibration characteristics of electric motors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bakshis, A. K.; Tamoshyunas, Y. K.

1973-01-01

The vibration characteristics of electric motors were analyzed using mathematical statistics methods. The equipment used and the method of conducting the test are described. Curves are developed to show the visualization of the electric motor vibrations in the vertical direction. Additional curves are included to show the amplitude-phase frequency characteristic of dynamic rotor-housing vibrations at the first lug and the same data for the second lug of the electric motor. Mathematical models were created to show the transmission function of the dynamic rotor housing system.

Life and reliability models for helicopter transmissions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Savage, M.; Knorr, R. J.; Coy, J. J.

1982-01-01

Computer models of life and reliability are presented for planetary gear trains with a fixed ring gear, input applied to the sun gear, and output taken from the planet arm. For this transmission the input and output shafts are co-axial and the input and output torques are assumed to be coaxial with these shafts. Thrust and side loading are neglected. The reliability model is based on the Weibull distributions of the individual reliabilities of the in transmission components. The system model is also a Weibull distribution. The load versus life model for the system is a power relationship as the models for the individual components. The load-life exponent and basic dynamic capacity are developed as functions of the components capacities. The models are used to compare three and four planet, 150 kW (200 hp), 5:1 reduction transmissions with 1500 rpm input speed to illustrate their use.

Global Transmission Dynamics of Measles in the Measles Elimination Era.

PubMed

Furuse, Yuki; Oshitani, Hitoshi

2017-04-16

Although there have been many epidemiological reports of the inter-country transmission of measles, systematic analysis of the global transmission dynamics of the measles virus (MV) is limited. In this study, we applied phylogeographic analysis to characterize the global transmission dynamics of the MV using large-scale genetic sequence data (obtained for 7456 sequences) from 115 countries between 1954 and 2015. These analyses reveal the spatial and temporal characteristics of global transmission of the virus, especially in Australia, China, India, Japan, the UK, and the USA in the period since 1990. The transmission is frequently observed, not only within the same region but also among distant and frequently visited areas. Frequencies of export from measles-endemic countries, such as China, India, and Japan are high but decreasing, while the frequencies from countries where measles is no longer endemic, such as Australia, the UK, and the USA, are low but slightly increasing. The world is heading toward measles eradication, but the disease is still transmitted regionally and globally. Our analysis reveals that countries wherein measles is endemic and those having eliminated the disease (apart from occasional outbreaks) both remain a source of global transmission in this measles elimination era. It is therefore crucial to maintain vigilance in efforts to monitor and eradicate measles globally.

Evaluation of Yersinia pestis Transmission Pathways for Sylvatic Plague in Prairie Dog Populations in the Western U.S.

PubMed

Richgels, Katherine L D; Russell, Robin E; Bron, Gebbiena M; Rocke, Tonie E

2016-06-01

Sylvatic plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, is periodically responsible for large die-offs in rodent populations that can spillover and cause human mortalities. In the western US, prairie dog populations experience nearly 100% mortality during plague outbreaks, suggesting that multiple transmission pathways combine to amplify plague dynamics. Several alternate pathways in addition to flea vectors have been proposed, such as transmission via direct contact with bodily fluids or inhalation of infectious droplets, consumption of carcasses, and environmental sources of plague bacteria, such as contaminated soil. However, evidence supporting the ability of these proposed alternate pathways to trigger large-scale epizootics remains elusive. Here we present a short review of potential plague transmission pathways and use an ordinary differential equation model to assess the contribution of each pathway to resulting plague dynamics in black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) and their fleas (Oropsylla hirsuta). Using our model, we found little evidence to suggest that soil contamination was capable of producing plague epizootics in prairie dogs. However, in the absence of flea transmission, direct transmission, i.e., contact with bodily fluids or inhalation of infectious droplets, could produce enzootic dynamics, and transmission via contact with or consumption of carcasses could produce epizootics. This suggests that these pathways warrant further investigation.

Transmission of vibration through gloves: effects of contact area.

PubMed

Md Rezali, Khairil Anas; Griffin, Michael J

2017-01-01

For three samples of material (12.5, 25.0 and 37.5 mm diameter) from each of three gloves, the dynamic stiffnesses and the vibration transmissibilities of the materials (to both the palm of the hand and the thenar eminence) were measured at frequencies from 10 to 300 Hz. Additional measurements showed the apparent masses of the hand at the palm and the thenar eminence were independent of contact area at frequencies less than about 40 Hz, but increased with increasing area at higher frequencies. The stiffness and damping of the glove materials increased with increasing area. These changes caused material transmissibilities to the hand to increase with increasing area. It is concluded that the size of the area of contact has a large influence on the transmission of vibration through a glove to the hand. The area of contact should be well-defined and controlled when evaluating the transmission of vibration through gloves. Practitioner Summary: The transmission of vibration through gloves depends on both the dynamic stiffness of glove material and the dynamic response of the hand. Both of these depend on the size of the contact area between a glove material and the hand, which should be taken into account when assessing glove transmissibility.

Evaluation of Yersinia pestis transmission pathways for sylvatic plague in prairie dog populations in the western U.S.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Richgels, Katherine L. D.; Russell, Robin E.; Bron, Gebbiena; Rocke, Tonie E.

2016-01-01

Sylvatic plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, is periodically responsible for large die-offs in rodent populations that can spillover and cause human mortalities. In the western US, prairie dog populations experience nearly 100% mortality during plague outbreaks, suggesting that multiple transmission pathways combine to amplify plague dynamics. Several alternate pathways in addition to flea vectors have been proposed, such as transmission via direct contact with bodily fluids or inhalation of infectious droplets, consumption of carcasses, and environmental sources of plague bacteria, such as contaminated soil. However, evidence supporting the ability of these proposed alternate pathways to trigger large-scale epizootics remains elusive. Here we present a short review of potential plague transmission pathways and use an ordinary differential equation model to assess the contribution of each pathway to resulting plague dynamics in black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) and their fleas (Oropsylla hirsuta). Using our model, we found little evidence to suggest that soil contamination was capable of producing plague epizootics in prairie dogs. However, in the absence of flea transmission, direct transmission, i.e., contact with bodily fluids or inhalation of infectious droplets, could produce enzootic dynamics, and transmission via contact with or consumption of carcasses could produce epizootics. This suggests that these pathways warrant further investigation.

Syphilis transmission: a review of the current evidence

PubMed Central

Stoltey, Juliet E.; Cohen, Stephanie E.

2018-01-01

Syphilis remains widespread worldwide, with increasing rates among men who have sex with men. This paper reviews available evidence regarding syphilis transmission, including data on: sexual transmission (transmission probability per sexual partnership), vertical transmission, transmission via blood products and organ donation, and other rare modes of transmission. In addition, host susceptibility to syphilis infection is discussed. Syphilis screening and treatment, condoms and risk-reduction counselling and how they modify syphilis transmission dynamics are considered. PMID:25702043

Knowledge transmission model with differing initial transmission and retransmission process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Haiying; Wang, Jun; Small, Michael

2018-10-01

Knowledge transmission is a cyclic dynamic diffusion process. The rate of acceptance of knowledge differs upon whether or not the recipient has previously held the knowledge. In this paper, the knowledge transmission process is divided into an initial and a retransmission procedure, each with its own transmission and self-learning parameters. Based on epidemic spreading model, we propose a naive-evangelical-agnostic (VEA) knowledge transmission model and derive mean-field equations to describe the dynamics of knowledge transmission in homogeneous networks. Theoretical analysis identifies a criterion for the persistence of knowledge, i.e., the reproduction number R0 depends on the minor effective parameters between the initial and retransmission process. Moreover, the final size of evangelical individuals is only related to retransmission process parameters. Numerical simulations validate the theoretical analysis. Furthermore, the simulations indicate that increasing the initial transmission parameters, including first transmission and self-learning rates of naive individuals, can accelerate the velocity of knowledge transmission efficiently but have no effect on the final size of evangelical individuals. In contrast, the retransmission parameters, including retransmission and self-learning rates of agnostic individuals, have a significant effect on the rate of knowledge transmission, i.e., the larger parameters the greater final density of evangelical individuals.

Mobile phone data highlights the role of mass gatherings in the spreading of cholera outbreaks.

PubMed

Finger, Flavio; Genolet, Tina; Mari, Lorenzo; de Magny, Guillaume Constantin; Manga, Noël Magloire; Rinaldo, Andrea; Bertuzzo, Enrico

2016-06-07

The spatiotemporal evolution of human mobility and the related fluctuations of population density are known to be key drivers of the dynamics of infectious disease outbreaks. These factors are particularly relevant in the case of mass gatherings, which may act as hotspots of disease transmission and spread. Understanding these dynamics, however, is usually limited by the lack of accurate data, especially in developing countries. Mobile phone call data provide a new, first-order source of information that allows the tracking of the evolution of mobility fluxes with high resolution in space and time. Here, we analyze a dataset of mobile phone records of ∼150,000 users in Senegal to extract human mobility fluxes and directly incorporate them into a spatially explicit, dynamic epidemiological framework. Our model, which also takes into account other drivers of disease transmission such as rainfall, is applied to the 2005 cholera outbreak in Senegal, which totaled more than 30,000 reported cases. Our findings highlight the major influence that a mass gathering, which took place during the initial phase of the outbreak, had on the course of the epidemic. Such an effect could not be explained by classic, static approaches describing human mobility. Model results also show how concentrated efforts toward disease control in a transmission hotspot could have an important effect on the large-scale progression of an outbreak.

Mobile phone data highlights the role of mass gatherings in the spreading of cholera outbreaks

PubMed Central

Finger, Flavio; Genolet, Tina; Mari, Lorenzo; de Magny, Guillaume Constantin; Manga, Noël Magloire; Rinaldo, Andrea; Bertuzzo, Enrico

2016-01-01

The spatiotemporal evolution of human mobility and the related fluctuations of population density are known to be key drivers of the dynamics of infectious disease outbreaks. These factors are particularly relevant in the case of mass gatherings, which may act as hotspots of disease transmission and spread. Understanding these dynamics, however, is usually limited by the lack of accurate data, especially in developing countries. Mobile phone call data provide a new, first-order source of information that allows the tracking of the evolution of mobility fluxes with high resolution in space and time. Here, we analyze a dataset of mobile phone records of ∼150,000 users in Senegal to extract human mobility fluxes and directly incorporate them into a spatially explicit, dynamic epidemiological framework. Our model, which also takes into account other drivers of disease transmission such as rainfall, is applied to the 2005 cholera outbreak in Senegal, which totaled more than 30,000 reported cases. Our findings highlight the major influence that a mass gathering, which took place during the initial phase of the outbreak, had on the course of the epidemic. Such an effect could not be explained by classic, static approaches describing human mobility. Model results also show how concentrated efforts toward disease control in a transmission hotspot could have an important effect on the large-scale progression of an outbreak. PMID:27217564

Incorporating heterogeneity into the transmission dynamics of a waterborne disease model.

PubMed

Collins, O C; Govinder, K S

2014-09-07

We formulate a mathematical model that captures the essential dynamics of waterborne disease transmission to study the effects of heterogeneity on the spread of the disease. The effects of heterogeneity on some important mathematical features of the model such as the basic reproduction number, type reproduction number and final outbreak size are analysed accordingly. We conduct a real-world application of this model by using it to investigate the heterogeneity in transmission in the recent cholera outbreak in Haiti. By evaluating the measure of heterogeneity between the administrative departments in Haiti, we discover a significant difference in the dynamics of the cholera outbreak between the departments. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cobotic architecture for prosthetics.

PubMed

Faulring, Eeic L; Colgate, J Edward; Peshkin, Michael A

2006-01-01

We envision cobotic infinitely-variable transmissions (IVTs) as an enabling technology for haptics and prosthetics that will allow for increases in the dynamic range of these devices while simultaneously permitting reductions in actuator size and power requirements. Use of cobotic IVTs eliminates the need to make compromises on output flow and effort, which are inherent to choosing a fixed transmission ratio drivetrain. The result is a mechanism with enhanced dynamic range that extends continuously from a completely clutched state to a highly backdrivable state. This high dynamic range allows cobotic devices to control impedance with a high level of fidelity. In this paper, we discuss these and other motivations for using parallel cobotic transmission architecture in prosthetic devices.

Border Malaria Associated with Multidrug Resistance on Thailand-Myanmar and Thailand-Cambodia Borders: Transmission Dynamic, Vulnerability, and Surveillance

PubMed Central

Bhumiratana, Adisak; Intarapuk, Apiradee; Sorosjinda-Nunthawarasilp, Prapa; Maneekan, Pannamas; Koyadun, Surachart

2013-01-01

This systematic review elaborates the concepts and impacts of border malaria, particularly on the emergence and spread of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax multidrug resistance (MDR) malaria on Thailand-Myanmar and Thailand-Cambodia borders. Border malaria encompasses any complex epidemiological settings of forest-related and forest fringe-related malaria, both regularly occurring in certain transmission areas and manifesting a trend of increased incidence in transmission prone areas along these borders, as the result of interconnections of human settlements and movement activities, cross-border population migrations, ecological changes, vector population dynamics, and multidrug resistance. For regional and global perspectives, this review analyzes and synthesizes the rationales pertaining to transmission dynamics and the vulnerabilities of border malaria that constrain surveillance and control of the world's most MDR falciparum and vivax malaria on these chaotic borders. PMID:23865048

Vibration signature analysis of multistage gear transmission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choy, F. K.; Tu, Y. K.; Savage, M.; Townsend, D. P.

1989-01-01

An analysis is presented for multistage multimesh gear transmission systems. The analysis predicts the overall system dynamics and the transmissibility to the gear box or the enclosed structure. The modal synthesis approach of the analysis treats the uncoupled lateral/torsional model characteristics of each stage or component independently. The vibration signature analysis evaluates the global dynamics coupling in the system. The method synthesizes the interaction of each modal component or stage with the nonlinear gear mesh dynamics and the modal support geometry characteristics. The analysis simulates transient and steady state vibration events to determine the resulting torque variations, speeds, changes, rotor imbalances, and support gear box motion excitations. A vibration signature analysis examines the overall dynamic characteristics of the system, and the individual model component responses. The gear box vibration analysis also examines the spectral characteristics of the support system.

Contrasting Transmission Dynamics of Co-endemic Plasmodium vivax and P. falciparum: Implications for Malaria Control and Elimination

PubMed Central

Noviyanti, Rintis; Coutrier, Farah; Utami, Retno A. S.; Trimarsanto, Hidayat; Tirta, Yusrifar K.; Trianty, Leily; Kusuma, Andreas; Sutanto, Inge; Kosasih, Ayleen; Kusriastuti, Rita; Hawley, William A.; Laihad, Ferdinand; Lobo, Neil; Marfurt, Jutta; Clark, Taane G.; Price, Ric N.; Auburn, Sarah

2015-01-01

Background Outside of Africa, P. falciparum and P. vivax usually coexist. In such co-endemic regions, successful malaria control programs have a greater impact on reducing falciparum malaria, resulting in P. vivax becoming the predominant species of infection. Adding to the challenges of elimination, the dormant liver stage complicates efforts to monitor the impact of ongoing interventions against P. vivax. We investigated molecular approaches to inform the respective transmission dynamics of P. falciparum and P. vivax and how these could help to prioritize public health interventions. Methodology/ Principal Findings Genotype data generated at 8 and 9 microsatellite loci were analysed in 168 P. falciparum and 166 P. vivax isolates, respectively, from four co-endemic sites in Indonesia (Bangka, Kalimantan, Sumba and West Timor). Measures of diversity, linkage disequilibrium (LD) and population structure were used to gauge the transmission dynamics of each species in each setting. Marked differences were observed in the diversity and population structure of P. vivax versus P. falciparum. In Bangka, Kalimantan and Timor, P. falciparum diversity was low, and LD patterns were consistent with unstable, epidemic transmission, amenable to targeted intervention. In contrast, P. vivax diversity was higher and transmission appeared more stable. Population differentiation was lower in P. vivax versus P. falciparum, suggesting that the hypnozoite reservoir might play an important role in sustaining local transmission and facilitating the spread of P. vivax infections in different endemic settings. P. vivax polyclonality varied with local endemicity, demonstrating potential utility in informing on transmission intensity in this species. Conclusions/ Significance Molecular approaches can provide important information on malaria transmission that is not readily available from traditional epidemiological measures. Elucidation of the transmission dynamics circulating in a given setting will have a major role in prioritising malaria control strategies, particularly against the relatively neglected non-falciparum species. PMID:25951184

Understanding the transmission dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus using multiple time series and nested models.

PubMed

White, L J; Mandl, J N; Gomes, M G M; Bodley-Tickell, A T; Cane, P A; Perez-Brena, P; Aguilar, J C; Siqueira, M M; Portes, S A; Straliotto, S M; Waris, M; Nokes, D J; Medley, G F

2007-09-01

The nature and role of re-infection and partial immunity are likely to be important determinants of the transmission dynamics of human respiratory syncytial virus (hRSV). We propose a single model structure that captures four possible host responses to infection and subsequent reinfection: partial susceptibility, altered infection duration, reduced infectiousness and temporary immunity (which might be partial). The magnitude of these responses is determined by four homotopy parameters, and by setting some of these parameters to extreme values we generate a set of eight nested, deterministic transmission models. In order to investigate hRSV transmission dynamics, we applied these models to incidence data from eight international locations. Seasonality is included as cyclic variation in transmission. Parameters associated with the natural history of the infection were assumed to be independent of geographic location, while others, such as those associated with seasonality, were assumed location specific. Models incorporating either of the two extreme assumptions for immunity (none or solid and lifelong) were unable to reproduce the observed dynamics. Model fits with either waning or partial immunity to disease or both were visually comparable. The best fitting structure was a lifelong partial immunity to both disease and infection. Observed patterns were reproduced by stochastic simulations using the parameter values estimated from the deterministic models.

Selected Insights from Application of Whole Genome Sequencing for Outbreak Investigations

PubMed Central

Le, Vien Thi Minh; Diep, Binh An

2014-01-01

Purpose of review The advent of high-throughput whole genome sequencing has the potential to revolutionize the conduct of outbreak investigation. Because of its ultimate pathogen strain resolution, whole genome sequencing could augment traditional epidemiologic investigations of infectious disease outbreaks. Recent findings The combination of whole genome sequencing and intensive epidemiologic analysis provided new insights on the sources and transmission dynamics of large-scale epidemics caused by Escherichia coli and Vibrio cholerae, nosocomial outbreaks caused by methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, Klebsiella pneumonia, and Mycobacterium abscessus, community-centered outbreaks caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis, and natural disaster-associated outbreak caused by environmentally acquired molds. Summary When combined with traditional epidemiologic investigation, whole genome sequencing has proven useful for elucidating sources and transmission dynamics of disease outbreaks. Development of a fully automated bioinformatics pipeline for analysis of whole genome sequence data is much needed to make this powerful tool more widely accessible. PMID:23856896

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lu, W., E-mail: wei.lu@xfel.eu; European X-Ray Free-Electron Laser Facility, 22607 Hamburg; Noll, T.

A hard X-ray Split and Delay Line (SDL) under development for the Materials Imaging and Dynamics (MID) station at the European X-Ray Free-Electron Laser (XFEL.EU) is presented. This device will provide pairs of X-ray pulses with a variable time delay ranging from −10 ps to 800 ps in a photon energy range from 5 to 10 keV. Throughput simulations in the SASE case indicate a total transmission of 1.1% or 3.5% depending on the operation mode. In the self-seeded case of XFEL.EU operation simulations indicate that the transmission can be improved to more than 11%.

A study of methods to predict and measure the transmission of sound through the walls of light aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bernhard, R. J.; Bolton, J. S.

1988-01-01

The objectives are: measurement of dynamic properties of acoustical foams and incorporation of these properties in models governing three-dimensional wave propagation in foams; tests to measure sound transmission paths in the HP137 Jetstream 3; and formulation of a finite element energy model. In addition, the effort to develop a numerical/empirical noise source identification technique was completed. The investigation of a design optimization technique for active noise control was also completed. Monthly progress reports which detail the progress made toward each of the objectives are summarized.

Broadband optical switch based on liquid crystal dynamic scattering.

PubMed

Geis, M W; Bos, P J; Liberman, V; Rothschild, M

2016-06-27

This work demonstrates a novel broadband optical switch, based on dynamic-scattering effect in liquid crystals (LCs). Dynamic-scattering-mode technology was developed for display applications over four decades ago, but was displaced in favor of the twisted-nematic LCs. However, with the recent development of more stable LCs, dynamic scattering provides advantages over other technologies for optical switching. We demonstrate broadband polarization-insensitive attenuation of light directly passing thought the cell by 4 to 5 orders of magnitude at 633 nm. The attenuation is accomplished by light scattering to higher angles. Switching times of 150 μs to 10% transmission have been demonstrated. No degradation of devices is found after hundreds of switching cycles. The light-rejection mechanism is due to scattering, induced by disruption of LC director orientation with dopant ion motion with an applied electric field. Angular dependence of scattering is characterized as a function of bias voltage.

Nonlinearity in the vertical transmissibility of seating: the role of the human body apparent mass and seat dynamic stiffness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tufano, Saverio; Griffin, Michael J.

2013-01-01

The efficiency of a seat in reducing vibration depends on the characteristics of the vibration, the dynamic characteristics of the seat, and the dynamic characteristics of the person sitting on the seat. However, it is not known whether seat cushions influence the dynamic response of the human body, whether the human body influences the dynamic response of seat cushions, or the relative importance of human body nonlinearity and seat nonlinearity in causing nonlinearity in measures of seat transmissibility. This study was designed to investigate the nonlinearity of the coupled seat and human body systems and to compare the apparent mass of the human body supported on rigid and foam seats. A frequency domain model was used to identify the dynamic parameters of seat foams and investigate their dependence on the subject-sitting weight and hip breadth. With 15 subjects, the force and acceleration at the seat base and acceleration at the subject interface were measured during random vertical vibration excitation (0.25-25 Hz) at each of five vibration magnitudes, (0.25-1.6 ms-2 r.m.s.) with four seating conditions (rigid flat seat and three foam cushions). The measurements are presented in terms of the subject's apparent mass on the rigid and foam seat surfaces, and the transmissibility and dynamic stiffness of each of the foam cushions. Both the human body and the foams showed nonlinear softening behaviour, which resulted in nonlinear cushion transmissibility. The apparent masses of subjects sitting on the rigid seat and on foam cushions were similar, but with an apparent increase in damping when sitting on the foams. The foam dynamic stiffness showed complex correlations with characteristics of the human body, which differed between foams. The nonlinearities in cushion transmissibilities, expressed in terms of changes in resonance frequencies and moduli, were more dependent on human body nonlinearity than on cushion nonlinearity.

Transmission Dynamics of the Four Dengue Serotypes in Southern Vietnam and the Potential Impact of Vaccination

PubMed Central

Coudeville, Laurent; Garnett, Geoff P.

2012-01-01

Background With approximately 2.5 billion people at risk, dengue is a major international public health concern. Dengue vaccines currently in development should help reduce the burden associated with this disease but the most efficient way of using future dengue vaccines remains to be defined. Mathematical models of transmission can provide insight into the expected impact of different vaccination strategies at a population level and contribute to this definition. Methods and Findings We developed and analyzed an age-structured, host-vector and serotype-specific compartmental model, including seasonality. We first used this transmission model to identify the immunological interactions between serotypes that affect the risks and consequences of secondary infections (cross-protection, increased susceptibility, increased severity, and increased infectiousness) and reproduce the observed epidemiology of dengue. For populating this model, we used routine surveillance data from Southern Vietnam and the results of a prospective cohort study conducted in the same area. The model provided a good fit to the observed data for age, severity of cases, serotype distribution, and dynamics over time, using two scenarios of immunological interaction : short term cross-protection alone (6–17 months) or a combination of short term cross-protection with cross-enhancement (increased susceptibility, severity and infectiousness in the case of secondary infections). Finally, we explored the potential impact of vaccination for these two scenarios. Both highlighted that vaccination can substantially decrease dengue burden by reducing the magnitude and frequency of outbreaks. Conclusion Our model suggests that seasonality and short term cross-protection are key factors for explaining dengue dynamics in Southern Vietnam. Vaccination was predicted to significantly reduce the disease burden, even in the situation where immunological cross-enhancement affects the risks and consequences of secondary infections. PMID:23251466

Design, analysis and control of a novel tendon-driven magnetic resonance-guided robotic system for minimally invasive breast surgery.

PubMed

Jiang, Shan; Lou, Jinlong; Yang, Zhiyong; Dai, Jiansheng; Yu, Yan

2015-09-01

Biopsy and brachytherapy for small core breast cancer are always difficult medical problems in the field of cancer treatment. This research mainly develops a magnetic resonance imaging-guided high-precision robotic system for breast puncture treatment. First, a 5-degree-of-freedom tendon-based surgical robotic system is introduced in detail. What follows are the kinematic analysis and dynamical modeling of the robotic system, where a mathematic dynamic model is established using the Lagrange method and a lumped parameter tendon model is used to identify the nonlinear gain of the tendon-sheath transmission system. Based on the dynamical models, an adaptive proportional-integral-derivative controller with friction compensation is proposed for accurate position control. Through simulations using different sinusoidal input signals, we observe that the sinusoidal tracking error at 1/2π Hz is 0.41 mm. Finally, the experiments on tendon-sheath transmission and needle insertion performance are conducted, which show that the insertion precision is 0.68 mm in laboratory environment. © IMechE 2015.

Time-variant analysis of rotorcraft systems dynamics - An exploitation of vector processors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Amirouche, F. M. L.; Xie, M.; Shareef, N. H.

1993-01-01

In this paper a generalized algorithmic procedure is presented for handling constraints in mechanical transmissions. The latter are treated as multibody systems of interconnected rigid/flexible bodies. The constraint Jacobian matrices are generated automatically and suitably updated in time, depending on the geometrical and kinematical constraint conditions describing the interconnection between shafts or gears. The type of constraints are classified based on the interconnection of the bodies by assuming that one or more points of contact exist between them. The effects due to elastic deformation of the flexible bodies are included by allowing each body element to undergo small deformations. The procedure is based on recursively formulated Kane's dynamical equations of motion and the finite element method, including the concept of geometrical stiffening effects. The method is implemented on an IBM-3090-600j vector processor with pipe-lining capabilities. A significant increase in the speed of execution is achieved by vectorizing the developed code in computationally intensive areas. An example consisting of two meshing disks rotating at high angular velocity is presented. Applications are intended for the study of the dynamic behavior of helicopter transmissions.

Meteorologically Driven Simulations of Dengue Epidemics in San Juan, PR

PubMed Central

Morin, Cory W.; Monaghan, Andrew J.; Hayden, Mary H.; Barrera, Roberto; Ernst, Kacey

2015-01-01

Meteorological factors influence dengue virus ecology by modulating vector mosquito population dynamics, viral replication, and transmission. Dynamic modeling techniques can be used to examine how interactions among meteorological variables, vectors and the dengue virus influence transmission. We developed a dengue fever simulation model by coupling a dynamic simulation model for Aedes aegypti, the primary mosquito vector for dengue, with a basic epidemiological Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model. Employing a Monte Carlo approach, we simulated dengue transmission during the period of 2010–2013 in San Juan, PR, where dengue fever is endemic. The results of 9600 simulations using varied model parameters were evaluated by statistical comparison (r2) with surveillance data of dengue cases reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. To identify the most influential parameters associated with dengue virus transmission for each period the top 1% of best-fit model simulations were retained and compared. Using the top simulations, dengue cases were simulated well for 2010 (r2 = 0.90, p = 0.03), 2011 (r2 = 0.83, p = 0.05), and 2012 (r2 = 0.94, p = 0.01); however, simulations were weaker for 2013 (r2 = 0.25, p = 0.25) and the entire four-year period (r2 = 0.44, p = 0.002). Analysis of parameter values from retained simulations revealed that rain dependent container habitats were more prevalent in best-fitting simulations during the wetter 2010 and 2011 years, while human managed (i.e. manually filled) container habitats were more prevalent in best-fitting simulations during the drier 2012 and 2013 years. The simulations further indicate that rainfall strongly modulates the timing of dengue (e.g., epidemics occurred earlier during rainy years) while temperature modulates the annual number of dengue fever cases. Our results suggest that meteorological factors have a time-variable influence on dengue transmission relative to other important environmental and human factors. PMID:26275146

Dealing with periodical loads and harmonics in operational modal analysis using time-varying transmissibility functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weijtjens, Wout; Lataire, John; Devriendt, Christof; Guillaume, Patrick

2014-12-01

Periodical loads, such as waves and rotating machinery, form a problem for operational modal analysis (OMA). In OMA only the vibrations of a structure of interest are measured and little to nothing is known about the loads causing these vibrations. Therefore, it is often assumed that all dynamics in the measured data are linked to the system of interest. Periodical loads defy this assumption as their periodical behavior is often visible within the measured vibrations. As a consequence most OMA techniques falsely associate the dynamics of the periodical load with the system of interest. Without additional information about the load, one is not able to correctly differentiate between structural dynamics and the dynamics of the load. In several applications, e.g. turbines and helicopters, it was observed that because of periodical loads one was unable to correctly identify one or multiple modes. Transmissibility based OMA (TOMA) is a completely different approach to OMA. By using transmissibility functions to estimate the structural dynamics of the system of interest, all influence of the load-spectrum can be eliminated. TOMA therefore allows to identify the modal parameters without being influenced by the presence of periodical loads, such as harmonics. One of the difficulties of TOMA is that the analyst is required to find two independent datasets, each associated with a different loading condition of the system of interest. This poses a dilemma for TOMA; how can an analyst identify two different loading conditions when little is known about the loads on the system? This paper tackles that problem by assuming that the loading conditions vary continuously over time, e.g. the changing wind directions. From this assumption TOMA is developed into a time-varying framework. This development allows TOMA to not only cope with the continuously changing loading conditions. The time-varying framework also enables the identification of the modal parameters from a single dataset. Moreover, the time-varying TOMA approach can be implemented in such a way that the analyst no longer has to identify different loading conditions. For these combined reasons the time-varying TOMA is less dependent on the user and requires less testing time than the earlier TOMA-technique.

Study on dynamic deformation synchronized measurement technology of double-layer liquid surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Huiying; Dong, Huimin; Liu, Zhanwei

2017-11-01

Accurate measurement of the dynamic deformation of double-layer liquid surfaces plays an important role in many fields, such as fluid mechanics, biomechanics, petrochemical industry and aerospace engineering. It is difficult to measure dynamic deformation of double-layer liquid surfaces synchronously for traditional methods. In this paper, a novel and effective method for full-field static and dynamic deformation measurement of double-layer liquid surfaces has been developed, that is wavefront distortion of double-wavelength transmission light with geometric phase analysis (GPA) method. Double wavelength lattice patterns used here are produced by two techniques, one is by double wavelength laser, and the other is by liquid crystal display (LCD). The techniques combine the characteristics such as high transparency, low reflectivity and fluidity of liquid. Two color lattice patterns produced by laser and LCD were adjusted at a certain angle through the tested double-layer liquid surfaces simultaneously. On the basis of the refractive indexes difference of two transmitted lights, the double-layer liquid surfaces were decoupled with GPA method. Combined with the derived relationship between phase variation of transmission-lattice patterns and out-of plane heights of two surfaces, as well as considering the height curves of the liquid level, the double-layer liquid surfaces can be reconstructed successfully. Compared with the traditional measurement method, the developed method not only has the common advantages of the optical measurement methods, such as high-precision, full-field and non-contact, but also simple, low cost and easy to set up.

Estimation of the age-specific per-contact probability of Ebola virus transmission in Liberia using agent-based simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siettos, Constantinos I.; Anastassopoulou, Cleo; Russo, Lucia; Grigoras, Christos; Mylonakis, Eleftherios

2016-06-01

Based on multiscale agent-based computations we estimated the per-contact probability of transmission by age of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) that swept through Liberia from May 2014 to March 2015. For the approximation of the epidemic dynamics we have developed a detailed agent-based model with small-world interactions between individuals categorized by age. For the estimation of the structure of the evolving contact network as well as the per-contact transmission probabilities by age group we exploited the so called Equation-Free framework. Model parameters were fitted to official case counts reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) as well as to recently published data of key epidemiological variables, such as the mean time to death, recovery and the case fatality rate.

Incorporating individual health-protective decisions into disease transmission models: a mathematical framework.

PubMed

Durham, David P; Casman, Elizabeth A

2012-03-07

It is anticipated that the next generation of computational epidemic models will simulate both infectious disease transmission and dynamic human behaviour change. Individual agents within a simulation will not only infect one another, but will also have situational awareness and a decision algorithm that enables them to modify their behaviour. This paper develops such a model of behavioural response, presenting a mathematical interpretation of a well-known psychological model of individual decision making, the health belief model, suitable for incorporation within an agent-based disease-transmission model. We formalize the health belief model and demonstrate its application in modelling the prevalence of facemask use observed over the course of the 2003 Hong Kong SARS epidemic, a well-documented example of behaviour change in response to a disease outbreak.

Incorporating individual health-protective decisions into disease transmission models: a mathematical framework

PubMed Central

Durham, David P.; Casman, Elizabeth A.

2012-01-01

It is anticipated that the next generation of computational epidemic models will simulate both infectious disease transmission and dynamic human behaviour change. Individual agents within a simulation will not only infect one another, but will also have situational awareness and a decision algorithm that enables them to modify their behaviour. This paper develops such a model of behavioural response, presenting a mathematical interpretation of a well-known psychological model of individual decision making, the health belief model, suitable for incorporation within an agent-based disease-transmission model. We formalize the health belief model and demonstrate its application in modelling the prevalence of facemask use observed over the course of the 2003 Hong Kong SARS epidemic, a well-documented example of behaviour change in response to a disease outbreak. PMID:21775324

Quantification of the dynamic changes in the absorption coefficient of liquid water at erbium:YAG and carbon dioxide laser wavelengths

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shori, Ramesh K.

The interaction of high-intensity, short-pulsed radiation with liquid water results in dynamic changes in the optical absorption coefficient of water. These changes and their implications, as related to mid-infrared laser ablation of tissue, were not investigated until the late 1980's and early 1990's. Classical models of absorption and heating do not explain the dynamic, non-linear changes in water. The objective of the present work was to quantify the dynamic changes in the absorption coefficient of liquid water as a function of incident energy at three clinically relevant infrared wavelengths (λ = 2.94, 9.6, 10.6 μm). To investigate the changes in the absorption spectrum of water in the 3-μm band, a stable, high-energy Q- switched Er:YAG laser emitting 2.94-μm radiation in a near-perfect TEMoo spatial beam profile was developed. Key to the development of this laser was careful attention to the gain medium, optical pump system, system optics, and the thermal system. The final system design was capable of emitting 110 mJ/pulse at of 2-4 Hz with a lamp lifetime exceeding 12 million pulses The laser was used in two sets of experiments in order to quantify the above changes. First, the laser was used to measure the velocity of the shock front produced by vaporizing a gelatin-based tissue phantom. The measured shock velocity was related to the optical energy absorbed by the tissue phantom and the absorption coefficient, based on the pressure relationships derived using a 1-D piston model for an expanding plume. The shock front velocity measurements indicate that the absorption coefficient is constant for incident fluences less than 20 J/cm2, a result consistent with transmission data. For higher fluences, the data indicate a decrease in the absorption coefficient, which is again consistent with transmission data. Quantification of the absorption coefficient can, however, not be made without violating assumptions that form the basis for the 1-D piston model. Second, the laser was used to measure the optical transmission across water layers of known thicknesses. The data were used to develop a Dynamic Saturable Absorption (DSA) model to predict the dynamic changes in the absorption coefficient of water as a function of incident energy. The DSA model, based in part upon the homogeneous broadening of an atomic transition in a laser gain medium, accurately predicts the absorption coefficient of water over a wide range of incident fluences. One sees saturation of the absorption at both high and low fluence with a monotonic decrease in absorption with increasing fluence. Transmission measurements were also made at 9.6 and 10.6 μm using a TEA CO2 laser. The data show essentially no change in the absorption coefficient as the fluence is varied. The results from the experiments make a significant contribution towards an understanding of the relationship among the dynamic optical properties of water and clinically relevant properties such as ablation rate and residual thermal damage.

Dynamic simulation of perturbation responses in a closed-loop virtual arm model.

PubMed

Du, Yu-Fan; He, Xin; Lan, Ning

2010-01-01

A closed-loop virtual arm (VA) model has been developed in SIMULINK environment by adding spinal reflex circuits and propriospinal neural networks to the open-loop VA model developed in early study [1]. An improved virtual muscle model (VM4.0) is used to speed up simulation and to generate more precise recruitment of muscle force at low levels of muscle activation. Time delays in the reflex loops are determined by their synaptic connections and afferent transmission back to the spinal cord. Reflex gains are properly selected so that closed-loop responses are stable. With the closed-loop VA model, we are developing an approach to evaluate system behaviors by dynamic simulation of perturbation responses. Joint stiffness is calculated based on simulated perturbation responses by a least-squares algorithm in MATLAB. This method of dynamic simulation will be essential for further evaluation of feedforward and reflex control of arm movement and position.

Using a new high resolution regional model for malaria that accounts for population density and surface hydrology to determine sensitivity of malaria risk to climate drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tompkins, Adrian; Ermert, Volker; Di Giuseppe, Francesca

2013-04-01

In order to better address the role of population dynamics and surface hydrology in the assessment of malaria risk, a new dynamical disease model been developed at ICTP, known as VECTRI: VECtor borne disease community model of ICTP, TRIeste (VECTRI). The model accounts for the temperature impact on the larvae, parasite and adult vector populations. Local host population density affects the transmission intensity, and the model thus reproduces the differences between peri-urban and rural transmission noted in Africa. A new simple pond model framework represents surface hydrology. The model can be used on with spatial resolutions finer than 10km to resolve individual health districts and thus can be used as a planning tool. Results of the models representation of interannual variability and longer term projections of malaria transmission will be shown for Africa. These will show that the model represents the seasonality and spatial variations of malaria transmission well matching a wide range of survey data of parasite rate and entomological inoculation rate (EIR) from across West and East Africa taken in the period prior to large-scale interventions. The model is used to determine the sensitivity of malaria risk to climate variations, both in rainfall and temperature, and then its use in a prototype forecasting system coupled with ECMWF forecasts will be demonstrated.

Transforming the U.S. Market with a New Application of Ternary-Type Pumped-Storage Hydropower Technology: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Corbus, David A; Jacobson, Mark D; Tan, Jin

As the deployment of wind and solar technologies increases at an unprecedented rate across the United States and in many world markets, the variability of power output from these technologies expands the need for increased power system flexibility. Energy storage can play an important role in the transition to a more flexible power system that can accommodate high penetrations of variable renewable technologies. This project focuses on how ternary pumped storage hydropower (T-PSH) coupled with dynamic transmission can help this transition by defining the system-wide benefits of deploying this technology in specific U.S. markets. T-PSH technology is the fastest respondingmore » pumped hydro technology equipment available today for grid services. T-PSH efficiencies are competitive with lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries, and T-PSH can provide increased storage capacity with minimal degradation during a 50-year lifetime. This project evaluates T-PSH for grid services ranging from fast frequency response (FFR) for power system contingency events and enhanced power system stability to longer time periods for power system flexibility to accommodate ramping from wind and solar variability and energy arbitrage. In summary, this project: Compares power grid services and costs, including ancillary services and essential reliability services, for T-PSH and conventional pumped storage hydropower (PSH) - Evaluates the dynamic response of T-PSH and PSH technologies and their contribution to essential reliability services for grid stability by developing new power system model representations for T-PSH and performing simulations in the Western Interconnection - Evaluates production costs, operational impacts, and energy storage revenue streams for future power system scenarios with T-PSH focusing on time frames of 5 minutes and more - Assesses the electricity market-transforming capabilities of T-PSH technology coupled with transmission monitoring and dynamic control. This paper presents an overview of the methodology and initial, first-year preliminary findings of a 2-year in-depth study into how advanced PSH and dynamic transmission contribute to the transformation and modernization of the U.S. electric grid. This project is part of the HydroNEXT Initiative funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) that is focused on the development of innovative technologies to advance nonpowered dams and PSH. The project team consists of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (project lead), Absaroka Energy, LLC (Montana-based PSH project developer), GE Renewable Energy (PSH pump/turbine equipment supplier), Grid Dynamics, and Auburn University (lead for NREL/Auburn dynamic modeling team).« less

Two-dimensional solitary waves and periodic waves on coupled nonlinear electrical transmission lines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Heng; Zheng, Shuhua

2017-06-01

By using the dynamical system approach, the exact travelling wave solutions for a system of coupled nonlinear electrical transmission lines are studied. Based on this method, the bifurcations of phase portraits of a dynamical system are given. The two-dimensional solitary wave solutions and periodic wave solutions on coupled nonlinear transmission lines are obtained. With the aid of Maple, the numerical simulations are conducted for solitary wave solutions and periodic wave solutions to the model equation. The results presented in this paper improve upon previous studies.

[Approximation to the dynamics of meningococcal meningitis through dynamic systems and time series].

PubMed

Canals, M

1996-02-01

Meningococcal meningitis is subjected to epidemiological surveillance due to its severity and the occasional presentation of epidemic outbreaks. This work analyses previous disease models, generate new ones and analyses monthly cases using ARIMA time series models. The results show that disease dynamics for closed populations is epidemic and the epidemic size is related to the proportion of carriers and the transmissiveness of the agent. In open populations, disease dynamics depends on the admission rate of susceptible and the relative admission of infected individuals. Our model considers a logistic populational growth and carrier admission proportional to populational size, generating an endemic dynamics. Considering a non-instantaneous system response, a greater realism is obtained establishing that the endemic situation may present a dynamics highly sensitive to initial conditions, depending on the transmissiveness and proportion of susceptible individuals in the population. Time series model showed an adequate predictive capacity in terms no longer than 10 months. The lack of long term predictability was attributed to local changes in the proportion of carriers or on transmissiveness that lead to chaotic dynamics over a seasonal pattern. Predictions for 1995 and 1996 were obtained.

Hybrid Packet-Pheromone-Based Probabilistic Routing for Mobile Ad Hoc Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kashkouli Nejad, Keyvan; Shawish, Ahmed; Jiang, Xiaohong; Horiguchi, Susumu

Ad-Hoc networks are collections of mobile nodes communicating using wireless media without any fixed infrastructure. Minimal configuration and quick deployment make Ad-Hoc networks suitable for emergency situations like natural disasters or military conflicts. The current Ad-Hoc networks can only support either high mobility or high transmission rate at a time because they employ static approaches in their routing schemes. However, due to the continuous expansion of the Ad-Hoc network size, node-mobility and transmission rate, the development of new adaptive and dynamic routing schemes has become crucial. In this paper we propose a new routing scheme to support high transmission rates and high node-mobility simultaneously in a big Ad-Hoc network, by combining a new proposed packet-pheromone-based approach with the Hint Based Probabilistic Protocol (HBPP) for congestion avoidance with dynamic path selection in packet forwarding process. Because of using the available feedback information, the proposed algorithm does not introduce any additional overhead. The extensive simulation-based analysis conducted in this paper indicates that the proposed algorithm offers small packet-latency and achieves a significantly higher delivery probability in comparison with the available Hint-Based Probabilistic Protocol (HBPP).

A network control theory approach to modeling and optimal control of zoonoses: case study of brucellosis transmission in sub-Saharan Africa.

PubMed

Roy, Sandip; McElwain, Terry F; Wan, Yan

2011-10-01

Developing control policies for zoonotic diseases is challenging, both because of the complex spread dynamics exhibited by these diseases, and because of the need for implementing complex multi-species surveillance and control efforts using limited resources. Mathematical models, and in particular network models, of disease spread are promising as tools for control-policy design, because they can provide comprehensive quantitative representations of disease transmission. A layered dynamical network model for the transmission and control of zoonotic diseases is introduced as a tool for analyzing disease spread and designing cost-effective surveillance and control. The model development is achieved using brucellosis transmission among wildlife, cattle herds, and human sub-populations in an agricultural system as a case study. Precisely, a model that tracks infection counts in interacting animal herds of multiple species (e.g., cattle herds and groups of wildlife for brucellosis) and in human subpopulations is introduced. The model is then abstracted to a form that permits comprehensive targeted design of multiple control capabilities as well as model identification from data. Next, techniques are developed for such quantitative design of control policies (that are directed to both the animal and human populations), and for model identification from snapshot and time-course data, by drawing on recent results in the network control community. The modeling approach is shown to provide quantitative insight into comprehensive control policies for zoonotic diseases, and in turn to permit policy design for mitigation of these diseases. For the brucellosis-transmission example in particular, numerous insights are obtained regarding the optimal distribution of resources among available control capabilities (e.g., vaccination, surveillance and culling, pasteurization of milk) and points in the spread network (e.g., transhumance vs. sedentary herds). In addition, a preliminary identification of the network model for brucellosis is achieved using historical data, and the robustness of the obtained model is demonstrated. As a whole, our results indicate that network modeling can aid in designing control policies for zoonotic diseases.

A Network Control Theory Approach to Modeling and Optimal Control of Zoonoses: Case Study of Brucellosis Transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa

PubMed Central

Roy, Sandip; McElwain, Terry F.; Wan, Yan

2011-01-01

Background Developing control policies for zoonotic diseases is challenging, both because of the complex spread dynamics exhibited by these diseases, and because of the need for implementing complex multi-species surveillance and control efforts using limited resources. Mathematical models, and in particular network models, of disease spread are promising as tools for control-policy design, because they can provide comprehensive quantitative representations of disease transmission. Methodology/Principal Findings A layered dynamical network model for the transmission and control of zoonotic diseases is introduced as a tool for analyzing disease spread and designing cost-effective surveillance and control. The model development is achieved using brucellosis transmission among wildlife, cattle herds, and human sub-populations in an agricultural system as a case study. Precisely, a model that tracks infection counts in interacting animal herds of multiple species (e.g., cattle herds and groups of wildlife for brucellosis) and in human subpopulations is introduced. The model is then abstracted to a form that permits comprehensive targeted design of multiple control capabilities as well as model identification from data. Next, techniques are developed for such quantitative design of control policies (that are directed to both the animal and human populations), and for model identification from snapshot and time-course data, by drawing on recent results in the network control community. Conclusions/Significance The modeling approach is shown to provide quantitative insight into comprehensive control policies for zoonotic diseases, and in turn to permit policy design for mitigation of these diseases. For the brucellosis-transmission example in particular, numerous insights are obtained regarding the optimal distribution of resources among available control capabilities (e.g., vaccination, surveillance and culling, pasteurization of milk) and points in the spread network (e.g., transhumance vs. sedentary herds). In addition, a preliminary identification of the network model for brucellosis is achieved using historical data, and the robustness of the obtained model is demonstrated. As a whole, our results indicate that network modeling can aid in designing control policies for zoonotic diseases. PMID:22022621

Identifiability and estimation of multiple transmission pathways in cholera and waterborne disease.

PubMed

Eisenberg, Marisa C; Robertson, Suzanne L; Tien, Joseph H

2013-05-07

Cholera and many waterborne diseases exhibit multiple characteristic timescales or pathways of infection, which can be modeled as direct and indirect transmission. A major public health issue for waterborne diseases involves understanding the modes of transmission in order to improve control and prevention strategies. An important epidemiological question is: given data for an outbreak, can we determine the role and relative importance of direct vs. environmental/waterborne routes of transmission? We examine whether parameters for a differential equation model of waterborne disease transmission dynamics can be identified, both in the ideal setting of noise-free data (structural identifiability) and in the more realistic setting in the presence of noise (practical identifiability). We used a differential algebra approach together with several numerical approaches, with a particular emphasis on identifiability of the transmission rates. To examine these issues in a practical public health context, we apply the model to a recent cholera outbreak in Angola (2006). Our results show that the model parameters-including both water and person-to-person transmission routes-are globally structurally identifiable, although they become unidentifiable when the environmental transmission timescale is fast. Even for water dynamics within the identifiable range, when noisy data are considered, only a combination of the water transmission parameters can practically be estimated. This makes the waterborne transmission parameters difficult to estimate, leading to inaccurate estimates of important epidemiological parameters such as the basic reproduction number (R0). However, measurements of pathogen persistence time in environmental water sources or measurements of pathogen concentration in the water can improve model identifiability and allow for more accurate estimation of waterborne transmission pathway parameters as well as R0. Parameter estimates for the Angola outbreak suggest that both transmission pathways are needed to explain the observed cholera dynamics. These results highlight the importance of incorporating environmental data when examining waterborne disease. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Unified Framework for the Infection Dynamics of Zoonotic Spillover and Spread.

PubMed

Lo Iacono, Giovanni; Cunningham, Andrew A; Fichet-Calvet, Elisabeth; Garry, Robert F; Grant, Donald S; Leach, Melissa; Moses, Lina M; Nichols, Gordon; Schieffelin, John S; Shaffer, Jeffrey G; Webb, Colleen T; Wood, James L N

2016-09-01

A considerable amount of disease is transmitted from animals to humans and many of these zoonoses are neglected tropical diseases. As outbreaks of SARS, avian influenza and Ebola have demonstrated, however, zoonotic diseases are serious threats to global public health and are not just problems confined to remote regions. There are two fundamental, and poorly studied, stages of zoonotic disease emergence: 'spillover', i.e. transmission of pathogens from animals to humans, and 'stuttering transmission', i.e. when limited human-to-human infections occur, leading to self-limiting chains of transmission. We developed a transparent, theoretical framework, based on a generalization of Poisson processes with memory of past human infections, that unifies these stages. Once we have quantified pathogen dynamics in the reservoir, with some knowledge of the mechanism of contact, the approach provides a tool to estimate the likelihood of spillover events. Comparisons with independent agent-based models demonstrates the ability of the framework to correctly estimate the relative contributions of human-to-human vs animal transmission. As an illustrative example, we applied our model to Lassa fever, a rodent-borne, viral haemorrhagic disease common in West Africa, for which data on human outbreaks were available. The approach developed here is general and applicable to a range of zoonoses. This kind of methodology is of crucial importance for the scientific, medical and public health communities working at the interface between animal and human diseases to assess the risk associated with the disease and to plan intervention and appropriate control measures. The Lassa case study revealed important knowledge gaps, and opportunities, arising from limited knowledge of the temporal patterns in reporting, abundance of and infection prevalence in, the host reservoir.

Mathematical Modeling of the Dynamics of Salmonella Cerro Infection in a US Dairy Herd

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapagain, Prem; van Kessel, Jo Ann; Karns, Jeffrey; Wolfgang, David; Schukken, Ynte; Grohn, Yrjo

2006-03-01

Salmonellosis has been one of the major causes of human foodborne illness in the US. The high prevalence of infections makes transmission dynamics of Salmonella in a farm environment of interest both from animal and human health perspectives. Mathematical modeling approaches are increasingly being applied to understand the dynamics of various infectious diseases in dairy herds. Here, we describe the transmission dynamics of Salmonella infection in a dairy herd with a set of non-linear differential equations. Although the infection dynamics of different serotypes of Salmonella in cattle are likely to be different, we find that a relatively simple SIR-type model can describe the observed dynamics of the Salmonella enterica serotype Cerro infection in the herd.

Disease transmission by cannibalism: rare event or common occurrence?

PubMed Central

Rudolf, Volker H.W; Antonovics, Janis

2007-01-01

Cannibalism has been documented as a possible disease transmission route in several species, including humans. However, the dynamics resulting from this type of disease transmission are not well understood. Using a theoretical model, we explore how cannibalism (i.e. killing and consumption of dead conspecifics) and intraspecific necrophagy (i.e. consumption of dead conspecifics) affect host–pathogen dynamics. We show that group cannibalism, i.e. shared consumption of victims, is a necessary condition for disease spread by cannibalism in the absence of alternative transmission modes. Thus, endemic diseases transmitted predominantly by cannibalism are likely to be rare, except in social organisms that share conspecific prey. These results are consistent with a review of the literature showing that diseases transmitted by cannibalism are infrequent in animals, even though both cannibalism and trophic transmission are very common. PMID:17327205

Disease transmission by cannibalism: rare event or common occurrence?

PubMed

Rudolf, Volker H W; Antonovics, Janis

2007-05-07

Cannibalism has been documented as a possible disease transmission route in several species, including humans. However, the dynamics resulting from this type of disease transmission are not well understood. Using a theoretical model, we explore how cannibalism (i.e. killing and consumption of dead conspecifics) and intraspecific necrophagy (i.e. consumption of dead conspecifics) affect host-pathogen dynamics. We show that group cannibalism, i.e. shared consumption of victims, is a necessary condition for disease spread by cannibalism in the absence of alternative transmission modes. Thus, endemic diseases transmitted predominantly by cannibalism are likely to be rare, except in social organisms that share conspecific prey. These results are consistent with a review of the literature showing that diseases transmitted by cannibalism are infrequent in animals, even though both cannibalism and trophic transmission are very common.

Cell-free transmission of human adenovirus by passive mass transfer in cell culture simulated in a computer model.

PubMed

Yakimovich, Artur; Gumpert, Heidi; Burckhardt, Christoph J; Lütschg, Verena A; Jurgeit, Andreas; Sbalzarini, Ivo F; Greber, Urs F

2012-09-01

Viruses spread between cells, tissues, and organisms by cell-free and cell-cell transmissions. Both mechanisms enhance disease development, but it is difficult to distinguish between them. Here, we analyzed the transmission mode of human adenovirus (HAdV) in monolayers of epithelial cells by wet laboratory experimentation and a computer simulation. Using live-cell fluorescence microscopy and replication-competent HAdV2 expressing green fluorescent protein, we found that the spread of infection invariably occurred after cell lysis. It was affected by convection and blocked by neutralizing antibodies but was independent of second-round infections. If cells were overlaid with agarose, convection was blocked and round plaques developed around lytic infected cells. Infected cells that did not lyse did not give rise to plaques, highlighting the importance of cell-free transmission. Key parameters for cell-free virus transmission were the time from infection to lysis, the dose of free viruses determining infection probability, and the diffusion of single HAdV particles in aqueous medium. With these parameters, we developed an in silico model using multiscale hybrid dynamics, cellular automata, and particle strength exchange. This so-called white box model is based on experimentally determined parameters and reproduces viral infection spreading as a function of the local concentration of free viruses. These analyses imply that the extent of lytic infections can be determined by either direct plaque assays or can be predicted by calculations of virus diffusion constants and modeling.

A Systematic Bayesian Integration of Epidemiological and Genetic Data

PubMed Central

Lau, Max S. Y.; Marion, Glenn; Streftaris, George; Gibson, Gavin

2015-01-01

Genetic sequence data on pathogens have great potential to inform inference of their transmission dynamics ultimately leading to better disease control. Where genetic change and disease transmission occur on comparable timescales additional information can be inferred via the joint analysis of such genetic sequence data and epidemiological observations based on clinical symptoms and diagnostic tests. Although recently introduced approaches represent substantial progress, for computational reasons they approximate genuine joint inference of disease dynamics and genetic change in the pathogen population, capturing partially the joint epidemiological-evolutionary dynamics. Improved methods are needed to fully integrate such genetic data with epidemiological observations, for achieving a more robust inference of the transmission tree and other key epidemiological parameters such as latent periods. Here, building on current literature, a novel Bayesian framework is proposed that infers simultaneously and explicitly the transmission tree and unobserved transmitted pathogen sequences. Our framework facilitates the use of realistic likelihood functions and enables systematic and genuine joint inference of the epidemiological-evolutionary process from partially observed outbreaks. Using simulated data it is shown that this approach is able to infer accurately joint epidemiological-evolutionary dynamics, even when pathogen sequences and epidemiological data are incomplete, and when sequences are available for only a fraction of exposures. These results also characterise and quantify the value of incomplete and partial sequence data, which has important implications for sampling design, and demonstrate the abilities of the introduced method to identify multiple clusters within an outbreak. The framework is used to analyse an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in the UK, enhancing current understanding of its transmission dynamics and evolutionary process. PMID:26599399

The Transmission Dynamics of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

May, R. M.; Anderson, R. M.

1988-10-01

The paper first reviews data on HIV infections and AIDS disease among homosexual men, heterosexuals, intravenous (IV) drug abusers and children born to infected mothers, in both developed and developing countries. We survey such information as is currently available about the distribution of incubation times that elapse between HIV infection and the appearance of AIDS, about the fraction of those infected with HIV who eventually go on to develop AIDS, about time-dependent patterns of infectiousness and about distributions of rates of acquiring new sexual or needle-sharing partners. With this information, models for the transmission dynamics of HIV are developed, beginning with deliberately oversimplified models and progressing - on the basis of the understanding thus gained - to more complex ones. Where possible, estimates of the model's parameters are derived from the epidemiological data, and predictions are compared with observed trends. We also combine these epidemiological models with demographic considerations to assess the effects that heterosexually-transmitted HIV/AIDS may eventually have on rates of population growth, on age profiles and on associated economic and social indicators, in African and other countries. The degree to which sexual or other habits must change to bring the `basic reproductive rate', R_0, of HIV infections below unity is discussed. We conclude by outlining some research needs, both in the refinement and development of models and in the collection of epidemiological data.

Stable scalable control of soliton propagation in broadband nonlinear optical waveguides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peleg, Avner; Nguyen, Quan M.; Huynh, Toan T.

2017-02-01

We develop a method for achieving scalable transmission stabilization and switching of N colliding soliton sequences in optical waveguides with broadband delayed Raman response and narrowband nonlinear gain-loss. We show that dynamics of soliton amplitudes in N-sequence transmission is described by a generalized N-dimensional predator-prey model. Stability and bifurcation analysis for the predator-prey model are used to obtain simple conditions on the physical parameters for robust transmission stabilization as well as on-off and off-on switching of M out of N soliton sequences. Numerical simulations for single-waveguide transmission with a system of N coupled nonlinear Schrödinger equations with 2 ≤ N ≤ 4 show excellent agreement with the predator-prey model's predictions and stable propagation over significantly larger distances compared with other broadband nonlinear single-waveguide systems. Moreover, stable on-off and off-on switching of multiple soliton sequences and stable multiple transmission switching events are demonstrated by the simulations. We discuss the reasons for the robustness and scalability of transmission stabilization and switching in waveguides with broadband delayed Raman response and narrowband nonlinear gain-loss, and explain their advantages compared with other broadband nonlinear waveguides.

The dynamic process and microscopic mechanism of extraordinary terahertz transmission through perforated superconducting films

PubMed Central

Wu, J. B.; Zhang, X.; Jin, B. B.; Liu, H. T.; Chen, Y. H.; Li, Z. Y.; Zhang, C. H.; Kang, L.; Xu, W. W.; Chen, J.; Wang, H. B.; Tonouchi, M.; Wu, P. H.

2015-01-01

Superconductor is a compelling plasmonic medium at terahertz frequencies owing to its intrinsic low Ohmic loss and good tuning property. However, the microscopic physics of the interaction between terahertz wave and superconducting plasmonic structures is still unknown. In this paper, we conducted experiments of the enhanced terahertz transmission through a series of superconducting NbN subwavelength hole arrays, and employed microscopic hybrid wave model in theoretical analysis of the role of hybrid waves in the enhanced transmission. The theoretical calculation provided a good match of experimental data. In particular, we obtained the following results. When the width of the holes is far below wavelength, the enhanced transmission is mainly caused by localized resonance around individual holes. On the contrary, when the holes are large, hybrid waves scattered by the array of holes dominate the extraordinary transmission. The surface plasmon polaritions are proved to be launched on the surface of superconducting film and the excitation efficiency increases when the temperature approaches critical temperature and the working frequency goes near energy gap frequency. This work will enrich our knowledge on the microscopic physics of extraordinary optical transmission at terahertz frequencies and contribute to developing terahertz plasmonic devices. PMID:26498994

Plasmodium knowlesi transmission: integrating quantitative approaches from epidemiology and ecology to understand malaria as a zoonosis.

PubMed

Brock, P M; Fornace, K M; Parmiter, M; Cox, J; Drakeley, C J; Ferguson, H M; Kao, R R

2016-04-01

The public health threat posed by zoonotic Plasmodium knowlesi appears to be growing: it is increasingly reported across South East Asia, and is the leading cause of malaria in Malaysian Borneo. Plasmodium knowlesi threatens progress towards malaria elimination as aspects of its transmission, such as spillover from wildlife reservoirs and reliance on outdoor-biting vectors, may limit the effectiveness of conventional methods of malaria control. The development of new quantitative approaches that address the ecological complexity of P. knowlesi, particularly through a focus on its primary reservoir hosts, will be required to control it. Here, we review what is known about P. knowlesi transmission, identify key knowledge gaps in the context of current approaches to transmission modelling, and discuss the integration of these approaches with clinical parasitology and geostatistical analysis. We highlight the need to incorporate the influences of fine-scale spatial variation, rapid changes to the landscape, and reservoir population and transmission dynamics. The proposed integrated approach would address the unique challenges posed by malaria as a zoonosis, aid the identification of transmission hotspots, provide insight into the mechanistic links between incidence and land use change and support the design of appropriate interventions.

Techniques for Developing an Acquisition Strategy by Profiling Software Risks

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-08-01

Drivers...................................................................................... 13 Figure 8: BMW 745Li Software... BMW 745Li, shown in Figure 8, is a good illustration of the increasing software control of hardware systems in automobiles. Among the many features...roll stabilization, dynamic brake con- trol, coded drive-away protection, an adaptive automatic transmission, and iDrive systems. This list can be

Vibration Transmission through Rolling Element Bearings in Geared Rotor Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-11-01

147 4.8 Concluding Remarks ........................................................... 153 V STATISTICAL ENERGY ANALYSIS ............................................ 155...and dynamic finite element techniques are used to develop the discrete vibration models while statistical energy analysis method is used for the broad...bearing system studies, geared rotor system studies, and statistical energy analysis . Each chapter is self sufficient since it is written in a

Water vapor radiometry research and development phase

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Resch, G. M.; Chavez, M. C.; Yamane, N. L.; Barbier, K. M.; Chandlee, R. C.

1985-01-01

This report describes the research and development phase for eight dual-channel water vapor radiometers constructed for the Crustal Dynamics Project at the Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, and for the NASA Deep Space Network. These instruments were developed to demonstrate that the variable path delay imposed on microwave radio transmissions by atmospheric water vapor can be calibrated, particularly as this phenomenon affects very long baseline interferometry measurement systems. Water vapor radiometry technology can also be used in systems that involve moist air meteorology and propagation studies.

BRIDGING SCALES IN THE EVOLUTION OF INFECTIOUS DISEASE LIFE HISTORIES: APPLICATION

PubMed Central

Mideo, Nicole; Nelson, William A.; Reece, Sarah E.; Bell, Andrew S.; Read, Andrew F.; Day, Troy

2014-01-01

Within- and between-host disease processes occur on the same timescales, therefore changes in the within-host dynamics of parasites, resources, and immunity can interact with changes in the epidemiological dynamics to affect evolutionary outcomes. Consequently, studies of the evolution of disease life histories, that is, infection-age-specific patterns of transmission and virulence, have been constrained by the need for a mechanistic understanding of within-host disease dynamics. In a companion paper (Day et al. 2011), we develop a novel approach that quantifies the relevant within-host aspects of disease through genetic covariance functions. Here, we demonstrate how to apply this theory to data. Using two previously published datasets from rodent malaria infections, we show how to translate experimental measures into disease life-history traits, and how to quantify the covariance in these traits. Our results show how patterns of covariance can interact with epidemiological dynamics to affect evolutionary predictions for disease life history. We also find that the selective constraints on disease life-history evolution can vary qualitatively, and that “simple” virulence-transmission trade-offs that are often the subject of experimental investigation can be obscured by trade-offs within one trait alone. Finally, we highlight the type and quality of data required for future applications. PMID:22023593

Multi-body Dynamic Contact Analysis Tool for Transmission Design

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-04-01

frequencies were computed in COSMIC NASTRAN, and were validated against the published experimental modal analysis [17]. • Using assumed time domain... modal superposition. • Results from the structural analysis (mode shapes or forced response) were converted into IDEAS universal format (dataset 55...ARMY RESEARCH LABORATORY Multi-body Dynamic Contact Analysis Tool for Transmission Design SBIR Phase II Final Report by

THE ROLE OF REEF FISH IN THE TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS OF BLACK-BAND DISEASE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS

EPA Science Inventory

Aeby, Greta S. and Deborah L. Santavy. In press. Role of Reef Fish in the Transmission Dynamics of Black-Band Disease in the Florida Keys (Abstract). To be presented at the 10th International Coral Reef Symposium, 28 June-2 July 2004, Okinawa, Japan. 1 p. (ERL,GB R998).

T...

Coherent Path Beamformer Front End for High Performance Acoustic Modems

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-09-30

transmission underwater. This knowledge will be used to develop a test model for evaluating under water acoustic modem and other shallow water sonar ...rates can be achieved, as shown in the following two sections. WORK COMPLETED Two systems have been developed in the Sonar Laboratory of Ocean...2) More performant variable gain preamplifiers have been installed and the software updated for a better control of the dynamic range. 3) An

Modeling the Transmission of Measles and Rubella to Support Global Management Policy Analyses and Eradication Investment Cases.

PubMed

Thompson, Kimberly M; Badizadegan, Nima D

2017-06-01

Policy makers responsible for managing measles and rubella immunization programs currently use a wide range of different vaccines formulations and immunization schedules. With endemic measles and rubella transmission interrupted in the region of the Americas, all five other regions of the World Health Organization (WHO) targeting the elimination of measles transmission by 2020, and increasing adoption of rubella vaccine globally, integrated dynamic disease, risk, decision, and economic models can help national, regional, and global health leaders manage measles and rubella population immunity. Despite hundreds of publications describing models for measles or rubella and decades of use of vaccines that contain both antigens (e.g., measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine or MMR), no transmission models for measles and rubella exist to support global policy analyses. We describe the development of a dynamic disease model for measles and rubella transmission, which we apply to 180 WHO member states and three other areas (Puerto Rico, Hong Kong, and Macao) representing >99.5% of the global population in 2013. The model accounts for seasonality, age-heterogeneous mixing, and the potential existence of preferentially mixing undervaccinated subpopulations, which create heterogeneity in immunization coverage that impacts transmission. Using our transmission model with the best available information about routine, supplemental, and outbreak response immunization, we characterize the complex transmission dynamics for measles and rubella historically to compare the results with available incidence and serological data. We show the results from several countries that represent diverse epidemiological situations to demonstrate the performance of the model. The model suggests relatively high measles and rubella control costs of approximately $3 billion annually for vaccination based on 2013 estimates, but still leads to approximately 17 million disability-adjusted life years lost with associated costs for treatment, home care, and productivity loss costs of approximately $4, $3, and $47 billion annually, respectively. Combined with vaccination and other financial cost estimates, our estimates imply that the eradication of measles and rubella could save at least $10 billion per year, even without considering the benefits of preventing lost productivity and potential savings from reductions in vaccination. The model should provide a useful tool for exploring the health and economic outcomes of prospective opportunities to manage measles and rubella. Improving the quality of data available to support decision making and modeling should represent a priority as countries work toward measles and rubella goals. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Determinants of Rotavirus Transmission: A Lag Nonlinear Time Series Analysis.

PubMed

van Gaalen, Rolina D; van de Kassteele, Jan; Hahné, Susan J M; Bruijning-Verhagen, Patricia; Wallinga, Jacco

2017-07-01

Rotavirus is a common viral infection among young children. As in many countries, the infection dynamics of rotavirus in the Netherlands are characterized by an annual winter peak, which was notably low in 2014. Previous study suggested an association between weather factors and both rotavirus transmission and incidence. From epidemic theory, we know that the proportion of susceptible individuals can affect disease transmission. We investigated how these factors are associated with rotavirus transmission in the Netherlands, and their impact on rotavirus transmission in 2014. We used available data on birth rates and rotavirus laboratory reports to estimate rotavirus transmission and the proportion of individuals susceptible to primary infection. Weather data were directly available from a central meteorological station. We developed an approach for detecting determinants of seasonal rotavirus transmission by assessing nonlinear, delayed associations between each factor and rotavirus transmission. We explored relationships by applying a distributed lag nonlinear regression model with seasonal terms. We corrected for residual serial correlation using autoregressive moving average errors. We inferred the relationship between different factors and the effective reproduction number from the most parsimonious model with low residual autocorrelation. Higher proportions of susceptible individuals and lower temperatures were associated with increases in rotavirus transmission. For 2014, our findings suggest that relatively mild temperatures combined with the low proportion of susceptible individuals contributed to lower rotavirus transmission in the Netherlands. However, our model, which overestimated the magnitude of the peak, suggested that other factors were likely instrumental in reducing the incidence that year.

Dynamic Control of Facts Devices to Enable Large Scale Penetration of Renewable Energy Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chavan, Govind Sahadeo

This thesis focuses on some of the problems caused by large scale penetration of Renewable Energy Resources within EHV transmission networks, and investigates some approaches in resolving these problems. In chapter 4, a reduced-order model of the 500 kV WECC transmission system is developed by estimating its key parameters from phasor measurement unit (PMU) data. The model was then implemented in RTDS and was investigated for its accuracy with respect to the PMU data. Finally it was tested for observing the effects of various contingencies like transmission line loss, generation loss and large scale penetration of wind farms on EHV transmission systems. Chapter 5 introduces Static Series Synchronous Compensators (SSSC) which are seriesconnected converters that can control real power flow along a transmission line. A new application of SSSCs in mitigating Ferranti effect on unloaded transmission lines was demonstrated on PSCAD. A new control scheme for SSSCs based on the Cascaded H-bridge (CHB) converter configuration was proposed and was demonstrated using PSCAD and RTDS. A new centralized controller was developed for the distributed SSSCs based on some of the concepts used in the CHB-based SSSC. The controller's efficacy was demonstrated using RTDS. Finally chapter 6 introduces the problem of power oscillations induced by renewable sources in a transmission network. A power oscillation damping (POD) controller is designed using distributed SSSCs in NYPA's 345 kV three-bus AC system and its efficacy is demonstrated in PSCAD. A similar POD controller is then designed for the CHB-based SSSC in the IEEE 14 bus system in PSCAD. Both controllers were noted to have significantly damped power oscillations in the transmission networks.

Cost-effectiveness of dengue vaccination in Yucatán, Mexico using a dynamic dengue transmission model

PubMed Central

Shim, Eunha

2017-01-01

Background The incidence of dengue fever (DF) is steadily increasing in Mexico, burdening health systems with consequent morbidities and mortalities. On December 9th, 2015, Mexico became the first country for which the dengue vaccine was approved for use. In anticipation of a vaccine rollout, analysis of the cost-effectiveness of the dengue vaccination program that quantifies the dynamics of disease transmission is essential. Methods We developed a dynamic transmission model of dengue in Yucatán, Mexico and its proposed vaccination program to incorporate herd immunity into our analysis of cost-effectiveness analysis. Our model also incorporates important characteristics of dengue epidemiology, such as clinical cross-immunity and susceptibility enhancement upon secondary infection. Using our model, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness and economic impact of an imperfect dengue vaccine in Yucatán, Mexico. Conclusions Our study indicates that a dengue vaccination program would prevent 90% of cases of symptomatic DF incidence as well as 90% of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) incidence and dengue-related deaths annually. We conclude that a dengue vaccine program in Yucatán, Mexico would be very cost-effective as long as the vaccination cost per individual is less than $140 and $214 from health care and societal perspectives, respectively. Furthermore, at an exemplary vaccination cost of $250 USD per individual on average, dengue vaccination is likely to be cost-effective 43% and 88% of the time from health care and societal perspectives, respectively. PMID:28380060

Cost-effectiveness of dengue vaccination in Yucatán, Mexico using a dynamic dengue transmission model.

PubMed

Shim, Eunha

2017-01-01

The incidence of dengue fever (DF) is steadily increasing in Mexico, burdening health systems with consequent morbidities and mortalities. On December 9th, 2015, Mexico became the first country for which the dengue vaccine was approved for use. In anticipation of a vaccine rollout, analysis of the cost-effectiveness of the dengue vaccination program that quantifies the dynamics of disease transmission is essential. We developed a dynamic transmission model of dengue in Yucatán, Mexico and its proposed vaccination program to incorporate herd immunity into our analysis of cost-effectiveness analysis. Our model also incorporates important characteristics of dengue epidemiology, such as clinical cross-immunity and susceptibility enhancement upon secondary infection. Using our model, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness and economic impact of an imperfect dengue vaccine in Yucatán, Mexico. Our study indicates that a dengue vaccination program would prevent 90% of cases of symptomatic DF incidence as well as 90% of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) incidence and dengue-related deaths annually. We conclude that a dengue vaccine program in Yucatán, Mexico would be very cost-effective as long as the vaccination cost per individual is less than $140 and $214 from health care and societal perspectives, respectively. Furthermore, at an exemplary vaccination cost of $250 USD per individual on average, dengue vaccination is likely to be cost-effective 43% and 88% of the time from health care and societal perspectives, respectively.

A regional-scale, high resolution dynamical malaria model that accounts for population density, climate and surface hydrology.

PubMed

Tompkins, Adrian M; Ermert, Volker

2013-02-18

The relative roles of climate variability and population related effects in malaria transmission could be better understood if regional-scale dynamical malaria models could account for these factors. A new dynamical community malaria model is introduced that accounts for the temperature and rainfall influences on the parasite and vector life cycles which are finely resolved in order to correctly represent the delay between the rains and the malaria season. The rainfall drives a simple but physically based representation of the surface hydrology. The model accounts for the population density in the calculation of daily biting rates. Model simulations of entomological inoculation rate and circumsporozoite protein rate compare well to data from field studies from a wide range of locations in West Africa that encompass both seasonal endemic and epidemic fringe areas. A focus on Bobo-Dioulasso shows the ability of the model to represent the differences in transmission rates between rural and peri-urban areas in addition to the seasonality of malaria. Fine spatial resolution regional integrations for Eastern Africa reproduce the malaria atlas project (MAP) spatial distribution of the parasite ratio, and integrations for West and Eastern Africa show that the model grossly reproduces the reduction in parasite ratio as a function of population density observed in a large number of field surveys, although it underestimates malaria prevalence at high densities probably due to the neglect of population migration. A new dynamical community malaria model is publicly available that accounts for climate and population density to simulate malaria transmission on a regional scale. The model structure facilitates future development to incorporate migration, immunity and interventions.

Emerging Concepts of Data Integration in Pathogen Phylodynamics.

PubMed

Baele, Guy; Suchard, Marc A; Rambaut, Andrew; Lemey, Philippe

2017-01-01

Phylodynamics has become an increasingly popular statistical framework to extract evolutionary and epidemiological information from pathogen genomes. By harnessing such information, epidemiologists aim to shed light on the spatio-temporal patterns of spread and to test hypotheses about the underlying interaction of evolutionary and ecological dynamics in pathogen populations. Although the field has witnessed a rich development of statistical inference tools with increasing levels of sophistication, these tools initially focused on sequences as their sole primary data source. Integrating various sources of information, however, promises to deliver more precise insights in infectious diseases and to increase opportunities for statistical hypothesis testing. Here, we review how the emerging concept of data integration is stimulating new advances in Bayesian evolutionary inference methodology which formalize a marriage of statistical thinking and evolutionary biology. These approaches include connecting sequence to trait evolution, such as for host, phenotypic and geographic sampling information, but also the incorporation of covariates of evolutionary and epidemic processes in the reconstruction procedures. We highlight how a full Bayesian approach to covariate modeling and testing can generate further insights into sequence evolution, trait evolution, and population dynamics in pathogen populations. Specific examples demonstrate how such approaches can be used to test the impact of host on rabies and HIV evolutionary rates, to identify the drivers of influenza dispersal as well as the determinants of rabies cross-species transmissions, and to quantify the evolutionary dynamics of influenza antigenicity. Finally, we briefly discuss how data integration is now also permeating through the inference of transmission dynamics, leading to novel insights into tree-generative processes and detailed reconstructions of transmission trees. [Bayesian inference; birth–death models; coalescent models; continuous trait evolution; covariates; data integration; discrete trait evolution; pathogen phylodynamics.

Emerging Concepts of Data Integration in Pathogen Phylodynamics

PubMed Central

Baele, Guy; Suchard, Marc A.; Rambaut, Andrew; Lemey, Philippe

2017-01-01

Phylodynamics has become an increasingly popular statistical framework to extract evolutionary and epidemiological information from pathogen genomes. By harnessing such information, epidemiologists aim to shed light on the spatio-temporal patterns of spread and to test hypotheses about the underlying interaction of evolutionary and ecological dynamics in pathogen populations. Although the field has witnessed a rich development of statistical inference tools with increasing levels of sophistication, these tools initially focused on sequences as their sole primary data source. Integrating various sources of information, however, promises to deliver more precise insights in infectious diseases and to increase opportunities for statistical hypothesis testing. Here, we review how the emerging concept of data integration is stimulating new advances in Bayesian evolutionary inference methodology which formalize a marriage of statistical thinking and evolutionary biology. These approaches include connecting sequence to trait evolution, such as for host, phenotypic and geographic sampling information, but also the incorporation of covariates of evolutionary and epidemic processes in the reconstruction procedures. We highlight how a full Bayesian approach to covariate modeling and testing can generate further insights into sequence evolution, trait evolution, and population dynamics in pathogen populations. Specific examples demonstrate how such approaches can be used to test the impact of host on rabies and HIV evolutionary rates, to identify the drivers of influenza dispersal as well as the determinants of rabies cross-species transmissions, and to quantify the evolutionary dynamics of influenza antigenicity. Finally, we briefly discuss how data integration is now also permeating through the inference of transmission dynamics, leading to novel insights into tree-generative processes and detailed reconstructions of transmission trees. [Bayesian inference; birth–death models; coalescent models; continuous trait evolution; covariates; data integration; discrete trait evolution; pathogen phylodynamics. PMID:28173504

A regional-scale, high resolution dynamical malaria model that accounts for population density, climate and surface hydrology

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The relative roles of climate variability and population related effects in malaria transmission could be better understood if regional-scale dynamical malaria models could account for these factors. Methods A new dynamical community malaria model is introduced that accounts for the temperature and rainfall influences on the parasite and vector life cycles which are finely resolved in order to correctly represent the delay between the rains and the malaria season. The rainfall drives a simple but physically based representation of the surface hydrology. The model accounts for the population density in the calculation of daily biting rates. Results Model simulations of entomological inoculation rate and circumsporozoite protein rate compare well to data from field studies from a wide range of locations in West Africa that encompass both seasonal endemic and epidemic fringe areas. A focus on Bobo-Dioulasso shows the ability of the model to represent the differences in transmission rates between rural and peri-urban areas in addition to the seasonality of malaria. Fine spatial resolution regional integrations for Eastern Africa reproduce the malaria atlas project (MAP) spatial distribution of the parasite ratio, and integrations for West and Eastern Africa show that the model grossly reproduces the reduction in parasite ratio as a function of population density observed in a large number of field surveys, although it underestimates malaria prevalence at high densities probably due to the neglect of population migration. Conclusions A new dynamical community malaria model is publicly available that accounts for climate and population density to simulate malaria transmission on a regional scale. The model structure facilitates future development to incorporate migration, immunity and interventions. PMID:23419192

Temporal dynamics and impact of event interactions in cyber-social populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yi-Qing; Li, Xiang

2013-03-01

The advance of information technologies provides powerful measures to digitize social interactions and facilitate quantitative investigations. To explore large-scale indoor interactions of a social population, we analyze 18 715 users' Wi-Fi access logs recorded in a Chinese university campus during 3 months, and define event interaction (EI) to characterize the concurrent interactions of multiple users inferred by their geographic coincidences—co-locating in the same small region at the same time. We propose three rules to construct a transmission graph, which depicts the topological and temporal features of event interactions. The vertex dynamics of transmission graph tells that the active durations of EIs fall into the truncated power-law distributions, which is independent on the number of involved individuals. The edge dynamics of transmission graph reports that the transmission durations present a truncated power-law pattern independent on the daily and weekly periodicities. Besides, in the aggregated transmission graph, low-degree vertices previously neglected in the aggregated static networks may participate in the large-degree EIs, which is verified by three data sets covering different sizes of social populations with various rendezvouses. This work highlights the temporal significance of event interactions in cyber-social populations.

Vector-virus interactions and transmission dynamics of West Nile virus.

PubMed

Ciota, Alexander T; Kramer, Laura D

2013-12-09

West Nile virus (WNV; Flavivirus; Flaviviridae) is the cause of the most widespread arthropod-borne viral disease in the world and the largest outbreak of neuroinvasive disease ever observed. Mosquito-borne outbreaks are influenced by intrinsic (e.g., vector and viral genetics, vector and host competence, vector life-history traits) and extrinsic (e.g., temperature, rainfall, human land use) factors that affect virus activity and mosquito biology in complex ways. The concept of vectorial capacity integrates these factors to address interactions of the virus with the arthropod host, leading to a clearer understanding of their complex interrelationships, how they affect transmission of vector-borne disease, and how they impact human health. Vertebrate factors including host competence, population dynamics, and immune status also affect transmission dynamics. The complexity of these interactions are further exacerbated by the fact that not only can divergent hosts differentially alter the virus, but the virus also can affect both vertebrate and invertebrate hosts in ways that significantly alter patterns of virus transmission. This chapter concentrates on selected components of the virus-vector-vertebrate interrelationship, focusing specifically on how interactions between vector, virus, and environment shape the patterns and intensity of WNV transmission.

Vector-Virus Interactions and Transmission Dynamics of West Nile Virus

PubMed Central

Ciota, Alexander T.; Kramer, Laura D.

2013-01-01

West Nile virus (WNV; Flavivirus; Flaviviridae) is the cause of the most widespread arthropod-borne viral disease in the world and the largest outbreak of neuroinvasive disease ever observed. Mosquito-borne outbreaks are influenced by intrinsic (e.g., vector and viral genetics, vector and host competence, vector life-history traits) and extrinsic (e.g., temperature, rainfall, human land use) factors that affect virus activity and mosquito biology in complex ways. The concept of vectorial capacity integrates these factors to address interactions of the virus with the arthropod host, leading to a clearer understanding of their complex interrelationships, how they affect transmission of vector-borne disease, and how they impact human health. Vertebrate factors including host competence, population dynamics, and immune status also affect transmission dynamics. The complexity of these interactions are further exacerbated by the fact that not only can divergent hosts differentially alter the virus, but the virus also can affect both vertebrate and invertebrate hosts in ways that significantly alter patterns of virus transmission. This chapter concentrates on selected components of the virus-vector-vertebrate interrelationship, focusing specifically on how interactions between vector, virus, and environment shape the patterns and intensity of WNV transmission. PMID:24351794

Role of vaccination-induced immunity and antigenic distance in the transmission dynamics of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1

PubMed Central

Rousou, Xanthoula; Kalthoff, Donata; Beer, Martin

2016-01-01

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 epidemics in poultry cause huge economic losses as well as sporadic human morbidity and mortality. Vaccination in poultry has often been reported as being ineffective in preventing transmission and as a potential driving force in the selection of immune escape mutants. We conducted transmission experiments to evaluate the transmission dynamics of HPAI H5N1 strains in chickens vaccinated with high and low doses of immune escape mutants we have previously selected, and analysed the data using mathematical models. Remarkably, we demonstrate that the effect of antigenic distances between the vaccine and challenge strains used in this study is too small to influence the transmission dynamics of the strains used. This is because the effect of a sufficient vaccine dose on antibody levels against the challenge viruses is large enough to compensate for any decrease in antibody titres due to antigenic differences between vaccine and challenge strains. Our results show that at least under experimental conditions, vaccination will remain effective even after antigenic changes as may be caused by the initial selection in vaccinated birds. PMID:26763336

Transmission dispatch and congestion management in open market systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Risheng

This thesis is located in the domain of electricity supply industry restructuring. It deals with emerging issues, whose understanding is essential to advancing knowledge of open access transmission theory and proceeds to develop approaches for solving the transmission dispatch and congestion management problem. An overview of current trends and experiences in utility restructuring and the main models for restructuring, as well as the classifications of system operators, is first presented. A fully unbundled competitive electricity market model, called the bilateral/multilateral trades model, is then developed. A survey of current research in transmission dispatch and congestion management is included with discussion of transmission capacity and ancillary services. A methodology for the power dispatch problem in a structure dominated by bilateral and multilateral transmission contracts is presented. Group structures are mathematically formulated and explored and three basic types of curtailment strategies proposed for use by market participants. A more complex model is then developed, which takes into account the co-existence of bilateral and multilateral contracts with pool type dynamic supplies and demands based on bids and market clearing prices. An integrated dispatch strategy to reconcile all three types of transactions (bilateral, multilateral and pool) is then developed. Prioritization of electricity transactions and related curtailment strategies are explored and a mechanism for coordination between market participants to achieve additional economic advantages is described. A theory of security based rescheduling is presented in order to investigate the security-related aspects of operation in an unbundled and deregulated system. The impact of post-contingency corrective capability on optimal rescheduling results has been identified and the advantage of incorporating post-contingency corrective rescheduling into the objective function demonstrated. Finally, integrated congestion management procedures in real-time system operation and in forward energy markets are developed. Market price response and coordination of dispatch by the ISO are incorporated to achieve an overall strategy.

Study on Heat Transfer Agent Models of Transmission Line and Transformer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, B.; Zhang, P. P.

2018-04-01

When using heat transfer simulation to study the dynamic overload of transmission line and transformer, it needs to establish the mathematical expression of heat transfer. However, the formula is a nonlinear differential equation or equation set and it is not easy to get general solutions. Aiming at this problem, some different temperature change processes caused by different initial conditions are calculated by differential equation and equation set. New agent models are developed according to the characteristics of different temperature change processes. The results show that the agent models have high precision and can solve the problem that the original equation cannot be directly applied in some practical engineers.

General framework for comparative quantitative studies on transmission of tick-borne diseases using Lyme borreliosis in Europe as an example.

PubMed

Randolph, S E; Craine, N G

1995-11-01

Models of tick-borne diseases must take account of the particular biological features of ticks that contrast with those of insect vectors. A general framework is proposed that identifies the parameters of the transmission dynamics of tick-borne diseases to allow a quantitative assessment of the relative contributions of different host species and alternative transmission routes to the basic reproductive number, Ro, of such diseases. Taking the particular case of the transmission of the Lyme borreliosis spirochaete, Borrelia burgdorferi, by Ixodes ticks in Europe, and using the best, albeit still inadequate, estimates of the parameter values and a set of empirical data from Thetford Forest, England, we show that squirrels and the transovarial transmission route make quantitatively very significant contributions to Ro. This approach highlights the urgent need for more robust estimates of certain crucial parameter values, particularly the coefficients of transmission between ticks and vertebrates, before we can progress to full models that incorporate seasonality and heterogeneity among host populations for the natural dynamics of transmission of borreliosis and other tick-borne diseases.

Stage-structured transmission of phocine distemper virus in the Dutch 2002 outbreak

PubMed Central

Klepac, Petra; Pomeroy, Laura W.; Bjørnstad, Ottar N.; Kuiken, Thijs; Osterhaus, Albert D.M.E.; Rijks, Jolianne M.

2009-01-01

Heterogeneities in transmission among hosts can be very important in shaping infectious disease dynamics. In mammals with strong social organization, such heterogeneities are often structured by functional stage: juveniles, subadults and adults. We investigate the importance of such stage-related heterogeneities in shaping the 2002 phocine distemper virus (PDV) outbreak in the Dutch Wadden Sea, when more than 40 per cent of the harbour seals were killed. We do this by comparing the statistical fit of a hierarchy of models with varying transmission complexity: homogeneous versus heterogeneous mixing and density- versus frequency-dependent transmission. We use the stranding data as a proxy for incidence and use Poisson likelihoods to estimate the ‘who acquires infection from whom’ (WAIFW) matrix. Statistically, the model with strong heterogeneous mixing and density-dependent transmission was found to best describe the transmission dynamics. However, patterns of incidence support a model of frequency-dependent transmission among adults and juveniles. Based on the maximum-likelihood WAIFW matrix estimates, we use the next-generation formalism to calculate an R0 between 2 and 2.5 for the Dutch 2002 PDV epidemic. PMID:19364743

Load-resistant coaxial transmission line

DOEpatents

Hall, David R.; Fox, Joe

2006-01-03

A transmission line for downhole tools that make up all or part of a tool string for drilling and production of oil, gas, and geothermal wells that can withstand the dynamic gravitational forces and other accelerations associated with downhole excavations. The transmission line has a metal tube, or outer conductor, that houses a coaxial wire inner conductor. A non-metallic dielectric material is interposed between the inner and outer conductors. The outer and inner conductors and the dielectric are sufficiently compressed together so that independent motion between them is abated. Compression of the components of the transmission line may be achieved by drawing the transmission through one or more dies in order to draw down the outer conductor onto the dielectric, or by expanding the inner conductor against the dielectric using a mandrel or hydraulic pressure. Non-metallic bead segments may be used in aid of the compression necessary to resist the dynamic forces and accelerations of drilling.

Population density and seasonality effects on Sin Nombre virus transmission in North American deermice (Peromyscus maniculatus) in outdoor enclosures.

PubMed

Bagamian, Karoun H; Douglass, Richard J; Alvarado, Arlene; Kuenzi, Amy J; Amman, Brian R; Waller, Lance A; Mills, James N

2012-01-01

Surveys of wildlife host-pathogen systems often document clear seasonal variation in transmission; conclusions concerning the relationship between host population density and transmission vary. In the field, effects of seasonality and population density on natural disease cycles are challenging to measure independently, but laboratory experiments may poorly reflect what happens in nature. Outdoor manipulative experiments are an alternative that controls for some variables in a relatively natural environment. Using outdoor enclosures, we tested effects of North American deermouse (Peromyscus maniculatus) population density and season on transmission dynamics of Sin Nombre hantavirus. In early summer, mid-summer, late summer, and fall 2007-2008, predetermined numbers of infected and uninfected adult wild deermice were released into enclosures and trapped weekly or bi-weekly. We documented 18 transmission events and observed significant seasonal effects on transmission, wounding frequency, and host breeding condition. Apparent differences in transmission incidence or wounding frequency between high- and low-density treatments were not statistically significant. However, high host density was associated with a lower proportion of males with scrotal testes. Seasonality may have a stronger influence on disease transmission dynamics than host population density, and density effects cannot be considered independent of seasonality.

Correlation of finite-element structural dynamic analysis with measured free vibration characteristics for a full-scale helicopter fuselage

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kenigsberg, I. J.; Dean, M. W.; Malatino, R.

1974-01-01

The correlation achieved with each program provides the material for a discussion of modeling techniques developed for general application to finite-element dynamic analyses of helicopter airframes. Included are the selection of static and dynamic degrees of freedom, cockpit structural modeling, and the extent of flexible-frame modeling in the transmission support region and in the vicinity of large cut-outs. The sensitivity of predicted results to these modeling assumptions are discussed. Both the Sikorsky Finite-Element Airframe Vibration analysis Program (FRAN/Vibration Analysis) and the NASA Structural Analysis Program (NASTRAN) have been correlated with data taken in full-scale vibration tests of a modified CH-53A helicopter.

Mathematical Modeling of the Transmission Dynamics of Clostridium difficile Infection and Colonization in Healthcare Settings: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Gingras, Guillaume; Guertin, Marie-Hélène; Laprise, Jean-François; Drolet, Mélanie; Brisson, Marc

2016-01-01

Background We conducted a systematic review of mathematical models of transmission dynamic of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) in healthcare settings, to provide an overview of existing models and their assessment of different CDI control strategies. Methods We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and Web of Science up to February 3, 2016 for transmission-dynamic models of Clostridium difficile in healthcare settings. The models were compared based on their natural history representation of Clostridium difficile, which could include health states (S-E-A-I-R-D: Susceptible-Exposed-Asymptomatic-Infectious-Resistant-Deceased) and the possibility to include healthcare workers and visitors (vectors of transmission). Effectiveness of interventions was compared using the relative reduction (compared to no intervention or current practice) in outcomes such as incidence of colonization, CDI, CDI recurrence, CDI mortality, and length of stay. Results Nine studies describing six different models met the inclusion criteria. Over time, the models have generally increased in complexity in terms of natural history and transmission dynamics and number/complexity of interventions/bundles of interventions examined. The models were categorized into four groups with respect to their natural history representation: S-A-I-R, S-E-A-I, S-A-I, and S-E-A-I-R-D. Seven studies examined the impact of CDI control strategies. Interventions aimed at controlling the transmission, lowering CDI vulnerability and reducing the risk of recurrence/mortality were predicted to reduce CDI incidence by 3–49%, 5–43% and 5–29%, respectively. Bundles of interventions were predicted to reduce CDI incidence by 14–84%. Conclusions Although CDI is a major public health problem, there are very few published transmission-dynamic models of Clostridium difficile. Published models vary substantially in the interventions examined, the outcome measures used and the representation of the natural history of Clostridium difficile, which make it difficult to synthesize results and provide a clear picture of optimal intervention strategies. Future modeling efforts should pay specific attention to calibration, structural uncertainties, and transparent reporting practices. PMID:27690247

Decrease of dynamic loads in mobile energy means

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polivaev, O. I.; Gorban, L. K.; Vorohobin, A. V.; Vedrinsky, O. S.

2018-03-01

The increase in the productivity of machine and tractor units is possible due to the increase in operating speeds, this leads to the emergence of increased dynamic loads in the system “engine-transmission-propulsion unit-soil”, which worsens the performance of machine-tractor aggregates. To reduce fluctuations in the “engine-transmission” system, special vibration dampers are used, which installed in close proximity to the engine and protect well the transmission from uneven engine operation; however, such dampers practically do not eliminate the oscillations of external loads. Reducing dynamic loads on the transmission and the mobile power engine (MPE) is an important issue directly related to improving the performance, reliability and durability of the tractor, as well as reducing the slippage of the drive wheels. In order to reduce effectively dynamic loads on the transmission and on the MPE, it is necessary to introduce resilient damping elements closer to the sources of oscillations, namely, to the driving wheels. At the same time, the elastic-damping element should provide accumulation of vibration energy caused by external influences and have a large energy capacity. The installation of an elastic-damping element in the final link of the tractor transmission ensures a reduction in the magnitude of external influences, thereby protecting the engine and transmission from large dynamic loads, and allows one to reduce the slippage of the propellers, which has a positive effect on the traction and energy characteristics of the tractor. Traction tests of the LTP-55 tractor on a concrete road showed that the use of an elasto-damping drive makes it possible to increase the maximum tractive power from 33.5 to 35.3 kW and to reduce the slipping of propellers by 12-30%, the specific fuel consumption by 6-10%. When driving on stubble, the use of an elastic-damping drive increases the maximum tractive power from 25 to 26 kW, reduces the skidding of propellers by 10-28%, and the specific fuel consumption by 10-12.5%.

Design and dynamic simulation of a fixed pitch 56 kW wind turbine drive train with a continuously variable transmission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gallo, C.; Kasuba, R.; Pintz, A.; Spring, J.

1986-01-01

The dynamic analysis of a horizontal axis fixed pitch wind turbine generator (WTG) rated at 56 kW is discussed. A mechanical Continuously Variable Transmission (CVT) was incorporated in the drive train to provide variable speed operation capability. One goal of the dynamic analysis was to determine if variable speed operation, by means of a mechanical CVT, is capable of capturing the transient power in the WTG/wind environment. Another goal was to determine the extent of power regulation possible with CVT operation.

Multi-Body Dynamic Contact Analysis. Tool for Transmission Design SBIR Phase II Final Report

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-04-01

shapes and natural frequencies were computed in COSMIC NASTRAN, and were validated against the published experimental modal analysis [17]. • Using...COSMIC NASTRAN via modal superposition. • Results from the structural analysis (mode shapes or forced response) were converted into IDEAS universal...ARMY RESEARCH LABORATORY Multi-body Dynamic Contact Analysis Tool for Transmission Design SBIR Phase II Final Report by

Wavelength reused bidirectional transmission of adaptively modulated optical OFDM signals in WDM-PONs incorporating SOA and RSOA intensity modulators.

PubMed

Wei, J L; Hugues-Salas, E; Giddings, R P; Jin, X Q; Zheng, X; Mansoor, S; Tang, J M

2010-05-10

Detailed numerical investigations are undertaken of wavelength reused bidirectional transmission of adaptively modulated optical OFDM (AMOOFDM) signals over a single SMF in a colorless WDM-PON incorporating a semiconductor optical amplifier (SOA) intensity modulator and a reflective SOA (RSOA) intensity modulator in the optical line termination and optical network unit, respectively. A comprehensive theoretical model describing the performance of such network scenarios is, for the first time, developed, taking into account dynamic optical characteristics of SOA and RSOA intensity modulators as well as the effects of Rayleigh backscattering (RB) and residual downstream signal-induced crosstalk. The developed model is rigorously verified experimentally in RSOA-based real-time end-to-end OOFDM systems at 7.5 Gb/s. It is shown that the RB noise and crosstalk effects are dominant factors limiting the maximum achievable downstream and upstream transmission performance. Under optimum SOA and RSOA operating conditions as well as practical downstream and upstream optical launch powers, 10 Gb/s downstream and 6 Gb/s upstream over 40 km SMF transmissions of conventional double sideband AMOOFDM signals are feasible without utilizing in-line optical amplification and chromatic dispersion compensation. In particular, the aforementioned transmission performance can be improved to 23 Gb/s downstream and 8 Gb/s upstream over 40 km SMFs when single sideband subcarrier modulation is adopted in the downstream systems. (c) 2010 Optical Society of America.

DengueME: A Tool for the Modeling and Simulation of Dengue Spatiotemporal Dynamics †

PubMed Central

de Lima, Tiago França Melo; Lana, Raquel Martins; de Senna Carneiro, Tiago Garcia; Codeço, Cláudia Torres; Machado, Gabriel Souza; Ferreira, Lucas Saraiva; de Castro Medeiros, Líliam César; Davis Junior, Clodoveu Augusto

2016-01-01

The prevention and control of dengue are great public health challenges for many countries, particularly since 2015, as other arboviruses have been observed to interact significantly with dengue virus. Different approaches and methodologies have been proposed and discussed by the research community. An important tool widely used is modeling and simulation, which help us to understand epidemic dynamics and create scenarios to support planning and decision making processes. With this aim, we proposed and developed DengueME, a collaborative open source platform to simulate dengue disease and its vector’s dynamics. It supports compartmental and individual-based models, implemented over a GIS database, that represent Aedes aegypti population dynamics, human demography, human mobility, urban landscape and dengue transmission mediated by human and mosquito encounters. A user-friendly graphical interface was developed to facilitate model configuration and data input, and a library of models was developed to support teaching-learning activities. DengueME was applied in study cases and evaluated by specialists. Other improvements will be made in future work, to enhance its extensibility and usability. PMID:27649226

Lay perceptions of risk factors for Rift Valley fever in a pastoral community in northeastern Kenya.

PubMed

Ng'ang'a, Caroline M; Bukachi, Salome A; Bett, Bernard K

2016-01-13

Human behavioral factors have been found to be central in the transmission of Rift Valley fever. Consumption of contaminated meat and milk in particular have been identified as one of the key risk factors for the transmission of Rift Valley fever in humans. In pastoral communities, livestock is the main source of livelihood from which many benefits such as food as well as economic and cultural services are derived. Zoonotic diseases therefore have a great impact on pastoral communities livelihoods. However, lay perceptions regarding the transmission of these diseases including Rift Valley fever hampers their effective control. This study investigated the lay perceptions of risks for Rift Valley fever transmission in a pastoral community in northeastern Kenya. A qualitative study was carried out in Ijara district, Kenya which was one of the hotspots of Rift Valley during the 2006/2007 outbreak. Data were collected using focus group discussions and narratives guided by checklists. Eight focus group discussions consisting of 83 participants and six narratives were conducted. Data was transcribed, coded and analysed according to Emergent themes. The participants reported that they had experienced Rift Valley fever in their livestock especially sheep and in humans both in 1997/1998 and 2006/2007. However, they believed that infections in humans occurred as a result of mosquito bites and had little to do with their consumption of meat, milk and blood from infected livestock. The participants in this study indicated that they had heard of the risks of acquiring the disease through consumption of livestock products but their experiences did not tally with the information they had received hence to them, Rift Valley fever was not transmissible through their dietary practices. Though the communities in this region were aware of Rift Valley fever, they did not have elaborate information regarding the disease transmission dynamics to humans. To avoid misconception about transmission of the disease, intervention strategies, require to be accompanied by comprehensive explanations of the dynamics of its transmission. It is necessary to develop appropriate interventions that take into consideration, lay perceptions of risk factors for the disease and communities' livelihood strategies.

Parameterization and Sensitivity Analysis of a Complex Simulation Model for Mosquito Population Dynamics, Dengue Transmission, and Their Control

PubMed Central

Ellis, Alicia M.; Garcia, Andres J.; Focks, Dana A.; Morrison, Amy C.; Scott, Thomas W.

2011-01-01

Models can be useful tools for understanding the dynamics and control of mosquito-borne disease. More detailed models may be more realistic and better suited for understanding local disease dynamics; however, evaluating model suitability, accuracy, and performance becomes increasingly difficult with greater model complexity. Sensitivity analysis is a technique that permits exploration of complex models by evaluating the sensitivity of the model to changes in parameters. Here, we present results of sensitivity analyses of two interrelated complex simulation models of mosquito population dynamics and dengue transmission. We found that dengue transmission may be influenced most by survival in each life stage of the mosquito, mosquito biting behavior, and duration of the infectious period in humans. The importance of these biological processes for vector-borne disease models and the overwhelming lack of knowledge about them make acquisition of relevant field data on these biological processes a top research priority. PMID:21813844

A generative inference framework for analysing patterns of cultural change in sparse population data with evidence for fashion trends in LBK culture.

PubMed

Kandler, Anne; Shennan, Stephen

2015-12-06

Cultural change can be quantified by temporal changes in frequency of different cultural artefacts and it is a central question to identify what underlying cultural transmission processes could have caused the observed frequency changes. Observed changes, however, often describe the dynamics in samples of the population of artefacts, whereas transmission processes act on the whole population. Here we develop a modelling framework aimed at addressing this inference problem. To do so, we firstly generate population structures from which the observed sample could have been drawn randomly and then determine theoretical samples at a later time t2 produced under the assumption that changes in frequencies are caused by a specific transmission process. Thereby we also account for the potential effect of time-averaging processes in the generation of the observed sample. Subsequent statistical comparisons (e.g. using Bayesian inference) of the theoretical and observed samples at t2 can establish which processes could have produced the observed frequency data. In this way, we infer underlying transmission processes directly from available data without any equilibrium assumption. We apply this framework to a dataset describing pottery from settlements of some of the first farmers in Europe (the LBK culture) and conclude that the observed frequency dynamic of different types of decorated pottery is consistent with age-dependent selection, a preference for 'young' pottery types which is potentially indicative of fashion trends. © 2015 The Author(s).

Not all cows are epidemiologically equal: quantifying the risks of bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) transmission through cattle movements.

PubMed

Gates, M Carolyn; Humphry, Roger W; Gunn, George J; Woolhouse, Mark E J

2014-10-17

Many economically important cattle diseases spread between herds through livestock movements. Traditionally, most transmission models have assumed that all purchased cattle carry the same risk of generating outbreaks in the destination herd. Using data on bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) in Scotland as a case example, this study provides empirical and theoretical evidence that the risk of disease transmission varies substantially based on the animal and herd demographic characteristics at the time of purchase. Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that purchasing pregnant heifers and open cows sold with a calf at foot were associated with an increased risk of beef herds being seropositive for BVDV. Based on the results from a dynamic within-herd simulation model, these findings may be partly explained by the age-related probability of animals being persistently infected with BVDV as well as the herd demographic structure at the time of animal introductions. There was also evidence that an epidemiologically important network statistic, "betweenness centrality" (a measure frequently associated with the potential for herds to acquire and transmit disease), was significantly higher for herds that supplied these particular types of replacement beef cattle. The trends for dairy herds were not as clear, although there was some evidence that open heifers and open lactating cows were associated with an increased risk of BVDV. Overall, these findings have important implications for developing simulation models that more accurately reflect the industry-level transmission dynamics of infectious cattle diseases.

Predicting the Impact of Vaccination on the Transmission Dynamics of Typhoid in South Asia: A Mathematical Modeling Study

PubMed Central

Pitzer, Virginia E.; Bowles, Cayley C.; Baker, Stephen; Kang, Gagandeep; Balaji, Veeraraghavan; Farrar, Jeremy J.; Grenfell, Bryan T.

2014-01-01

Background Modeling of the transmission dynamics of typhoid allows for an evaluation of the potential direct and indirect effects of vaccination; however, relevant typhoid models rooted in data have rarely been deployed. Methodology/Principal Findings We developed a parsimonious age-structured model describing the natural history and immunity to typhoid infection. The model was fit to data on culture-confirmed cases of typhoid fever presenting to Christian Medical College hospital in Vellore, India from 2000–2012. The model was then used to evaluate the potential impact of school-based vaccination strategies using live oral, Vi-polysaccharide, and Vi-conjugate vaccines. The model was able to reproduce the incidence and age distribution of typhoid cases in Vellore. The basic reproductive number (R 0) of typhoid was estimated to be 2.8 in this setting. Vaccination was predicted to confer substantial indirect protection leading to a decrease in the incidence of typhoid in the short term, but (intuitively) typhoid incidence was predicted to rebound 5–15 years following a one-time campaign. Conclusions/Significance We found that model predictions for the overall and indirect effects of vaccination depend strongly on the role of chronic carriers in transmission. Carrier transmissibility was tentatively estimated to be low, consistent with recent studies, but was identified as a pivotal area for future research. It is unlikely that typhoid can be eliminated from endemic settings through vaccination alone. PMID:24416466

Autochthonous Chikungunya Transmission and Extreme Climate Events in Southern France.

PubMed

Roiz, David; Boussès, Philippe; Simard, Frédéric; Paupy, Christophe; Fontenille, Didier

2015-06-01

Extreme precipitation events are increasing as a result of ongoing global warming, but controversy surrounds the relationship between flooding and mosquito-borne diseases. A common view among the scientific community and public health officers is that heavy rainfalls have a flushing effect on breeding sites, which negatively affects vector populations, thereby diminishing disease transmission. During 2014 in Montpellier, France, there were at least 11 autochthonous cases of chikungunya caused by the invasive tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus in the vicinity of an imported case. We show that an extreme rainfall event increased and extended the abundance of the disease vector Ae. albopictus, hence the period of autochthonous transmission of chikungunya. We report results from close monitoring of the adult and egg population of the chikungunya vector Ae. albopictus through weekly sampling over the entire mosquito breeding season, which revealed an unexpected pattern. Statistical analysis of the seasonal dynamics of female abundance in relation to climatic factors showed that these relationships changed after the heavy rainfall event. Before the inundations, accumulated temperatures are the most important variable predicting Ae. albopictus seasonal dynamics. However, after the inundations, accumulated rainfall over the 4 weeks prior to capture predicts the seasonal dynamics of this species and extension of the transmission period. Our empirical data suggests that heavy rainfall events did increase the risk of arbovirus transmission in Southern France in 2014 by favouring a rapid rise in abundance of vector mosquitoes. Further studies should now confirm these results in different ecological contexts, so that the impact of global change and extreme climatic events on mosquito population dynamics and the risk of disease transmission can be adequately understood.

Long-Term and Seasonal Dynamics of Dengue in Iquitos, Peru

PubMed Central

Stoddard, Steven T.; Wearing, Helen J.; Reiner, Robert C.; Morrison, Amy C.; Astete, Helvio; Vilcarromero, Stalin; Alvarez, Carlos; Ramal-Asayag, Cesar; Sihuincha, Moises; Rocha, Claudio; Halsey, Eric S.; Scott, Thomas W.; Kochel, Tadeusz J.; Forshey, Brett M.

2014-01-01

Introduction Long-term disease surveillance data provide a basis for studying drivers of pathogen transmission dynamics. Dengue is a mosquito-borne disease caused by four distinct, but related, viruses (DENV-1-4) that potentially affect over half the world's population. Dengue incidence varies seasonally and on longer time scales, presumably driven by the interaction of climate and host susceptibility. Precise understanding of dengue dynamics is constrained, however, by the relative paucity of laboratory-confirmed longitudinal data. Methods We studied 10 years (2000–2010) of laboratory-confirmed, clinic-based surveillance data collected in Iquitos, Peru. We characterized inter and intra-annual patterns of dengue dynamics on a weekly time scale using wavelet analysis. We explored the relationships of case counts to climatic variables with cross-correlation maps on annual and trimester bases. Findings Transmission was dominated by single serotypes, first DENV-3 (2001–2007) then DENV-4 (2008–2010). After 2003, incidence fluctuated inter-annually with outbreaks usually occurring between October and April. We detected a strong positive autocorrelation in case counts at a lag of ∼70 weeks, indicating a shift in the timing of peak incidence year-to-year. All climatic variables showed modest seasonality and correlated weakly with the number of reported dengue cases across a range of time lags. Cases were reduced after citywide insecticide fumigation if conducted early in the transmission season. Conclusions Dengue case counts peaked seasonally despite limited intra-annual variation in climate conditions. Contrary to expectations for this mosquito-borne disease, no climatic variable considered exhibited a strong relationship with transmission. Vector control operations did, however, appear to have a significant impact on transmission some years. Our results indicate that a complicated interplay of factors underlie DENV transmission in contexts such as Iquitos. PMID:25033412

Dynamically reconfigurable holographic metasurface aperture for a Mills-Cross monochromatic microwave camera.

PubMed

Yurduseven, Okan; Marks, Daniel L; Fromenteze, Thomas; Smith, David R

2018-03-05

We present a reconfigurable, dynamic beam steering holographic metasurface aperture to synthesize a microwave camera at K-band frequencies. The aperture consists of a 1D printed microstrip transmission line with the front surface patterned into an array of slot-shaped subwavelength metamaterial elements (or meta-elements) dynamically tuned between "ON" and "OFF" states using PIN diodes. The proposed aperture synthesizes a desired radiation pattern by converting the waveguide-mode to a free space radiation by means of a binary modulation scheme. This is achieved in a holographic manner; by interacting the waveguide-mode (reference-wave) with the metasurface layer (hologram layer). It is shown by means of full-wave simulations that using the developed metasurface aperture, the radiated wavefronts can be engineered in an all-electronic manner without the need for complex phase-shifting circuits or mechanical scanning apparatus. Using the dynamic beam steering capability of the developed antenna, we synthesize a Mills-Cross composite aperture, forming a single-frequency all-electronic microwave camera.

Relating phylogenetic trees to transmission trees of infectious disease outbreaks.

PubMed

Ypma, Rolf J F; van Ballegooijen, W Marijn; Wallinga, Jacco

2013-11-01

Transmission events are the fundamental building blocks of the dynamics of any infectious disease. Much about the epidemiology of a disease can be learned when these individual transmission events are known or can be estimated. Such estimations are difficult and generally feasible only when detailed epidemiological data are available. The genealogy estimated from genetic sequences of sampled pathogens is another rich source of information on transmission history. Optimal inference of transmission events calls for the combination of genetic data and epidemiological data into one joint analysis. A key difficulty is that the transmission tree, which describes the transmission events between infected hosts, differs from the phylogenetic tree, which describes the ancestral relationships between pathogens sampled from these hosts. The trees differ both in timing of the internal nodes and in topology. These differences become more pronounced when a higher fraction of infected hosts is sampled. We show how the phylogenetic tree of sampled pathogens is related to the transmission tree of an outbreak of an infectious disease, by the within-host dynamics of pathogens. We provide a statistical framework to infer key epidemiological and mutational parameters by simultaneously estimating the phylogenetic tree and the transmission tree. We test the approach using simulations and illustrate its use on an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. The approach unifies existing methods in the emerging field of phylodynamics with transmission tree reconstruction methods that are used in infectious disease epidemiology.

Transmission dynamics of Bacillus thuringiensis infecting Plodia interpunctella: a test of the mass action assumption with an insect pathogen.

PubMed

Knell, R J; Begon, M; Thompson, D J

1996-01-22

Central to theoretical studies of host-pathogen population dynamics is a term describing transmission of the pathogen. This usually assumes that transmission is proportional to the density of infectious hosts or particles and of susceptible individuals. We tested this assumption with the bacterial pathogen Bacillus thuringiensis infecting larvae of Plodia interpunctella, the Indian meal moth. Transmission was found to increase in a more than linear way with host density in fourth and fifth instar P. interpunctella, and to decrease with the density of infectious cadavers in the case of fifth instar larvae. Food availability was shown to play an important part in this process. Therefore, on a number of counts, the usual assumption was found not to apply in our experimental system.

Anisotropic Babinet-Invertible Metasurfaces to Realize Transmission-Reflection Switching for Orthogonal Polarizations of Light

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakata, Yosuke; Urade, Yoshiro; Okimura, Kunio; Nakanishi, Toshihiro; Miyamaru, Fumiaki; Takeda, Mitsuo Wada; Kitano, Masao

2016-10-01

The electromagnetic properties of an extremely thin metallic checkerboard drastically change from resonant reflection (transmission) to resonant transmission (reflection) when the local electrical conductivity at the interconnection points of the checkerboard is switched. To date, such critical transitions of metasurfaces have been applied only when they have fourfold rotational symmetry, and their application to polarization control, which requires anisotropy, has been unexplored. To overcome this applicability limitation and open up alternative pathways for dynamic deep-subwavelength polarization control by utilizing critical transitions of checkerboardlike metasurfaces, we introduce a universal class of anisotropic Babinet-invertible metasurfaces enabling transmission-reflection switching for each orthogonally polarized wave. As an application of anisotropic Babinet-invertible metasurfaces, we experimentally realize a reconfigurable terahertz polarizer whose transmitting axis can be dynamically rotated by 90°.

Reconfigurable all-dielectric metasurface based on tunable chemical systems in aqueous solution.

PubMed

Yang, Xiaoqing; Zhang, Di; Wu, Shiyue; Yin, Yang; Li, Lanshuo; Cao, Kaiyuan; Huang, Kama

2017-06-09

Dynamic control transmission and polarization properties of electromagnetic (EM) wave propagation is investigated using chemical reconfigurable all-dielectric metasurface. The metasurface is composed of cross-shaped periodical teflon tubes and inner filled chemical systems (i.e., mixtures and chemical reaction) in aqueous solution. By tuning the complex permittivity of chemical systems, the reconfigurable metasurface can be easily achieved. The transmission properties of different incident polarized waves (i.e., linear and circular polarization) were simulated and experimentally measured for static ethanol solution as volume ratio changed. Both results indicated this metasurface can serve as either tunable FSS (Frequency Selective Surface) or tunable linear-to-circular/cross Polarization Converter at required frequency range. Based on the reconfigurable laws obtained from static solutions, we developed a dynamic dielectric system and researched a typical chemical reaction with time-varying permittivity filled in the tubes experimentally. It provides new ways for realizing automatic reconfiguration of metasurface by chemical reaction system with given variation laws of permittivity.

Model for disease dynamics of a waterborne pathogen on a random network.

PubMed

Li, Meili; Ma, Junling; van den Driessche, P

2015-10-01

A network epidemic SIWR model for cholera and other diseases that can be transmitted via the environment is developed and analyzed. The person-to-person contacts are modeled by a random contact network, and the contagious environment is modeled by an external node that connects to every individual. The model is adapted from the Miller network SIR model, and in the homogeneous mixing limit becomes the Tien and Earn deterministic cholera model without births and deaths. The dynamics of our model shows excellent agreement with stochastic simulations. The basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] is computed, and on a Poisson network shown to be the sum of the basic reproduction numbers of the person-to-person and person-to-water-to-person transmission pathways. However, on other networks, [Formula: see text] depends nonlinearly on the transmission along the two pathways. Type reproduction numbers are computed and quantify measures to control the disease. Equations giving the final epidemic size are obtained.

Collective decision dynamics in the presence of external drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bassett, Danielle S.; Alderson, David L.; Carlson, Jean M.

2012-09-01

We develop a sequence of models describing information transmission and decision dynamics for a network of individual agents subject to multiple sources of influence. Our general framework is set in the context of an impending natural disaster, where individuals, represented by nodes on the network, must decide whether or not to evacuate. Sources of influence include a one-to-many externally driven global broadcast as well as pairwise interactions, across links in the network, in which agents transmit either continuous opinions or binary actions. We consider both uniform and variable threshold rules on the individual opinion as baseline models for decision making. Our results indicate that (1) social networks lead to clustering and cohesive action among individuals, (2) binary information introduces high temporal variability and stagnation, and (3) information transmission over the network can either facilitate or hinder action adoption, depending on the influence of the global broadcast relative to the social network. Our framework highlights the essential role of local interactions between agents in predicting collective behavior of the population as a whole.

Rift Valley fever trasmission dynamics described by compartmental models.

PubMed

Danzetta, Maria Luisa; Bruno, Rossana; Sauro, Francesca; Savini, Lara; Calistri, Paolo

2016-11-01

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is one of the most important zoonotic Transboundary Animal Diseases able to cross international borders and cause devastating effect on animal health and food security. Climate changes and the presence of competent vectors in the most of the current RVF-free temperate countries strongly support the inclusion of RVF virus (RVFV) among the most significant emerging viral threats for public and animal health. The transmission of RVFV is driven by complex eco-climatic factors making the epidemiology of RVF infection difficult to study and to understand. Mathematical, statistical and spatial models are often used to explain the mechanisms underlying these biological processes, providing new and effective tools to plan measures for public health protection. In this paper we performed a systematic literature review on RVF published papers with the aim of identifying and describing the most recent papers developing compartmental models for the study of RVFV transmission dynamics. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Fuzzy-Based Approach for Sensing, Coding and Transmission Configuration of Visual Sensors in Smart City Applications

PubMed Central

Costa, Daniel G.; Collotta, Mario; Pau, Giovanni; Duran-Faundez, Cristian

2017-01-01

The advance of technologies in several areas has allowed the development of smart city applications, which can improve the way of life in modern cities. When employing visual sensors in that scenario, still images and video streams may be retrieved from monitored areas, potentially providing valuable data for many applications. Actually, visual sensor networks may need to be highly dynamic, reflecting the changing of parameters in smart cities. In this context, characteristics of visual sensors and conditions of the monitored environment, as well as the status of other concurrent monitoring systems, may affect how visual sensors collect, encode and transmit information. This paper proposes a fuzzy-based approach to dynamically configure the way visual sensors will operate concerning sensing, coding and transmission patterns, exploiting different types of reference parameters. This innovative approach can be considered as the basis for multi-systems smart city applications based on visual monitoring, potentially bringing significant results for this research field. PMID:28067777

A Fuzzy-Based Approach for Sensing, Coding and Transmission Configuration of Visual Sensors in Smart City Applications.

PubMed

Costa, Daniel G; Collotta, Mario; Pau, Giovanni; Duran-Faundez, Cristian

2017-01-05

The advance of technologies in several areas has allowed the development of smart city applications, which can improve the way of life in modern cities. When employing visual sensors in that scenario, still images and video streams may be retrieved from monitored areas, potentially providing valuable data for many applications. Actually, visual sensor networks may need to be highly dynamic, reflecting the changing of parameters in smart cities. In this context, characteristics of visual sensors and conditions of the monitored environment, as well as the status of other concurrent monitoring systems, may affect how visual sensors collect, encode and transmit information. This paper proposes a fuzzy-based approach to dynamically configure the way visual sensors will operate concerning sensing, coding and transmission patterns, exploiting different types of reference parameters. This innovative approach can be considered as the basis for multi-systems smart city applications based on visual monitoring, potentially bringing significant results for this research field.

Molecular assessment of Hepatozoon (Apicomplexa: Adeleorina) infections in wild canids and rodents from north Africa, with implications for transmission dynamics across taxonomic groups.

PubMed

Maia, João P; Alvares, Francisco; Boratyński, Zbyszek; Brito, José C; Leite, João V; Harris, D James

2014-10-01

Parasites play a major role in ecosystems, and understanding of host-parasite interactions is important for predicting parasite transmission dynamics and epidemiology. However, there is still a lack of knowledge about the distribution, diversity, and impact of parasites in wildlife, especially from remote areas. Hepatozoon is a genus of apicomplexan parasites that is transmitted by ingestion of infected arthropod vectors. However, alternative modes of transmission have been identified such as trophic transmission. Using the 18S rRNA gene as a marker, we provide an assessment of Hepatozoon prevalence in six wild canid and two rodent species collected between 2003 and 2012 from remote areas in North Africa. By combining this with other predator-prey systems in a phylogenetic framework, we investigate Hepatozoon transmission dynamics in distinct host taxa. Prevalence was high overall among host species (African jerboa Jaculus jaculus [17/47, 36%], greater Egyptian jerboa Jaculus orientalis [5/7, 71%], side-striped jackal Canis adustus [1/2, 50%], golden jackal Canis aureus [6/32, 18%], pale fox Vulpes pallida [14/28, 50%], Rüppell's fox Vulpes rueppellii [6/11, 55%], red fox Vulpes vulpes [8/16, 50%], and fennec fox Vulpes zerda [7/11, 42%]). Phylogenetic analysis showed further evidence of occasional transmission of Hepatozoon lineages from prey to canid predators, which seems to occur less frequently than in other predator-prey systems such as between snakes and lizards. Due to the complex nature of the Hepatozoon lifecycle (heteroxenous and vector-borne), future studies on these wild host species need to clarify the dynamics of alternative modes of Hepatozoon transmission and identify reservoir and definitive hosts in natural populations. We also detected putative Babesia spp. (Apicomplexa: Piroplasmida) infections in two canid species from this region, V. pallida (1/28) and V. zerda (1/11).

Deformation-Induced Dynamic Precipitation and Resulting Microstructure in a Mg-Zn-Ca Alloy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Yuzhou; Zheng, Mingyi; Jiang, Bailing; Zhou, Kesong

2018-05-01

The microstructure of an Mg-Zn-Ca extrusion was investigated by transmission electron microscopy, and the interaction between dynamic precipitation and dynamic recrystallization was analyzed. The results showed that dynamic precipitation significantly affected the microstructure of the as-extruded Mg-Zn-Ca alloy. The pinning effects of precipitates on dislocations effectively prohibited dynamic recrystallization processes, while the grain boundary precipitate Ca2Mg6Zn3, inhibited the growth of dynamically recrystallized grains. Consequently, a bimodal microstructure with fine dynamically recrystallized (DRXed) grains and elongated deformed regions was obtained for the Mg-Zn-Ca extrusion. High-resolution transmission electron microscopy indicated that the intragranular precipitate MgZn2 had a crystal orientation relationship with α-Mg in the form of (0002)Mg//(10-13)MgZn2 and [1-100]Mg//[1-210]MgZn2, which was beneficial for strength improvement.

PSHFT - COMPUTERIZED LIFE AND RELIABILITY MODELLING FOR TURBOPROP TRANSMISSIONS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Savage, M.

1994-01-01

The computer program PSHFT calculates the life of a variety of aircraft transmissions. A generalized life and reliability model is presented for turboprop and parallel shaft geared prop-fan aircraft transmissions. The transmission life and reliability model is a combination of the individual reliability models for all the bearings and gears in the main load paths. The bearing and gear reliability models are based on the statistical two parameter Weibull failure distribution method and classical fatigue theories. The computer program developed to calculate the transmission model is modular. In its present form, the program can analyze five different transmissions arrangements. Moreover, the program can be easily modified to include additional transmission arrangements. PSHFT uses the properties of a common block two-dimensional array to separate the component and transmission property values from the analysis subroutines. The rows correspond to specific components with the first row containing the values for the entire transmission. Columns contain the values for specific properties. Since the subroutines (which determine the transmission life and dynamic capacity) interface solely with this property array, they are separated from any specific transmission configuration. The system analysis subroutines work in an identical manner for all transmission configurations considered. Thus, other configurations can be added to the program by simply adding component property determination subroutines. PSHFT consists of a main program, a series of configuration specific subroutines, generic component property analysis subroutines, systems analysis subroutines, and a common block. The main program selects the routines to be used in the analysis and sequences their operation. The series of configuration specific subroutines input the configuration data, perform the component force and life analyses (with the help of the generic component property analysis subroutines), fill the property array, call up the system analysis routines, and finally print out the analysis results for the system and components. PSHFT is written in FORTRAN 77 and compiled on a MicroSoft FORTRAN compiler. The program will run on an IBM PC AT compatible with at least 104k bytes of memory. The program was developed in 1988.

Who acquires infection from whom and how? Disentangling multi-host and multi-mode transmission dynamics in the ‘elimination’ era

PubMed Central

Borlase, Anna; Rudge, James W.

2017-01-01

Multi-host infectious agents challenge our abilities to understand, predict and manage disease dynamics. Within this, many infectious agents are also able to use, simultaneously or sequentially, multiple modes of transmission. Furthermore, the relative importance of different host species and modes can itself be dynamic, with potential for switches and shifts in host range and/or transmission mode in response to changing selective pressures, such as those imposed by disease control interventions. The epidemiology of such multi-host, multi-mode infectious agents thereby can involve a multi-faceted community of definitive and intermediate/secondary hosts or vectors, often together with infectious stages in the environment, all of which may represent potential targets, as well as specific challenges, particularly where disease elimination is proposed. Here, we explore, focusing on examples from both human and animal pathogen systems, why and how we should aim to disentangle and quantify the relative importance of multi-host multi-mode infectious agent transmission dynamics under contrasting conditions, and ultimately, how this can be used to help achieve efficient and effective disease control. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission’. PMID:28289259

The use of the articulated total body model as a robot dynamics simulation tool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Obergfell, Louise A.; Avula, Xavier J. R.; Kalegs, Ints

1988-01-01

The Articulated Total Body (ATB) model is a computer sumulation program which was originally developed for the study of aircrew member dynamics during ejection from high-speed aircraft. This model is totally three-dimensional and is based on the rigid body dynamics of coupled systems which use Euler's equations of motion with constraint relations of the type employed in the Lagrange method. In this paper the use of the ATB model as a robot dynamics simulation tool is discussed and various simulations are demonstrated. For this purpose the ATB model has been modified to allow for the application of torques at the joints as functions of state variables of the system. Specifically, the motion of a robotic arm with six revolute articulations with joint torques prescribed as functions of angular displacement and angular velocity are demonstrated. The simulation procedures developed in this work may serve as valuable tools for analyzing robotic mechanisms, dynamic effects, joint load transmissions, feed-back control algorithms employed in the actuator control and end-effector trajectories.

Non-linear dynamic analysis of geared systems, part 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Singh, Rajendra; Houser, Donald R.; Kahraman, Ahmet

1990-01-01

A good understanding of the steady state dynamic behavior of a geared system is required in order to design reliable and quiet transmissions. This study focuses on a system containing a spur gear pair with backlash and periodically time-varying mesh stiffness, and rolling element bearings with clearance type non-linearities. A dynamic finite element model of the linear time-invariant (LTI) system is developed. Effects of several system parameters, such as torsional and transverse flexibilities of the shafts and prime mover/load inertias, on free and force vibration characteristics are investigated. Several reduced order LTI models are developed and validated by comparing their eigen solution with the finite element model results. Several key system parameters such as mean load and damping ratio are identified and their effects on the non-linear frequency response are evaluated quantitatively. Other fundamental issues such as the dynamic coupling between non-linear modes, dynamic interactions between component non-linearities and time-varying mesh stiffness, and the existence of subharmonic and chaotic solutions including routes to chaos have also been examined in depth.

Dynamic health policies for controlling the spread of emerging infections: influenza as an example.

PubMed

Yaesoubi, Reza; Cohen, Ted

2011-01-01

The recent appearance and spread of novel infectious pathogens provide motivation for using models as tools to guide public health decision-making. Here we describe a modeling approach for developing dynamic health policies that allow for adaptive decision-making as new data become available during an epidemic. In contrast to static health policies which have generally been selected by comparing the performance of a limited number of pre-determined sequences of interventions within simulation or mathematical models, dynamic health policies produce "real-time" recommendations for the choice of the best current intervention based on the observable state of the epidemic. Using cumulative real-time data for disease spread coupled with current information about resource availability, these policies provide recommendations for interventions that optimally utilize available resources to preserve the overall health of the population. We illustrate the design and implementation of a dynamic health policy for the control of a novel strain of influenza, where we assume that two types of intervention may be available during the epidemic: (1) vaccines and antiviral drugs, and (2) transmission reducing measures, such as social distancing or mask use, that may be turned "on" or "off" repeatedly during the course of epidemic. In this example, the optimal dynamic health policy maximizes the overall population's health during the epidemic by specifying at any point of time, based on observable conditions, (1) the number of individuals to vaccinate if vaccines are available, and (2) whether the transmission-reducing intervention should be either employed or removed.

Experimental investigation of alternative transmission functions: Quantitative evidence for the importance of nonlinear transmission dynamics in host-parasite systems.

PubMed

Orlofske, Sarah A; Flaxman, Samuel M; Joseph, Maxwell B; Fenton, Andy; Melbourne, Brett A; Johnson, Pieter T J

2018-05-01

Understanding pathogen transmission is crucial for predicting and managing disease. Nonetheless, experimental comparisons of alternative functional forms of transmission remain rare, and those experiments that are conducted are often not designed to test the full range of possible forms. To differentiate among 10 candidate transmission functions, we used a novel experimental design in which we independently varied four factors-duration of exposure, numbers of parasites, numbers of hosts and parasite density-in laboratory infection experiments. We used interactions between amphibian hosts and trematode parasites as a model system and all candidate models incorporated parasite depletion. An additional manipulation involving anaesthesia addressed the effects of host behaviour on transmission form. Across all experiments, nonlinear transmission forms involving either a power law or a negative binomial function were the best-fitting models and consistently outperformed the linear density-dependent and density-independent functions. By testing previously published data for two other host-macroparasite systems, we also found support for the same nonlinear transmission forms. Although manipulations of parasite density are common in transmission studies, the comprehensive set of variables tested in our experiments revealed that variation in density alone was least likely to differentiate among competing transmission functions. Across host-pathogen systems, nonlinear functions may often more accurately represent transmission dynamics and thus provide more realistic predictions for infection. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

Timing and Order of Transmission Events Is Not Directly Reflected in a Pathogen Phylogeny

PubMed Central

Romero-Severson, Ethan; Skar, Helena; Bulla, Ingo; Albert, Jan; Leitner, Thomas

2014-01-01

Pathogen phylogenies are often used to infer spread among hosts. There is, however, not an exact match between the pathogen phylogeny and the host transmission history. Here, we examine in detail the limitations of this relationship. First, all splits in a pathogen phylogeny of more than 1 host occur within hosts, not at the moment of transmission, predating the transmission events as described by the pretransmission interval. Second, the order in which nodes in a phylogeny occur may be reflective of the within-host dynamics rather than epidemiologic relationships. To investigate these phenomena, motivated by within-host diversity patterns, we developed a two-phase coalescent model that includes a transmission bottleneck followed by linear outgrowth to a maximum population size followed by either stabilization or decline of the population. The model predicts that the pretransmission interval shrinks compared with predictions based on constant population size or a simple transmission bottleneck. Because lineages coalesce faster in a small population, the probability of a pathogen phylogeny to resemble the transmission history depends on when after infection a donor transmits to a new host. We also show that the probability of inferring the incorrect order of multiple transmissions from the same host is high. Finally, we compare time of HIV-1 infection informed by genetic distances in phylogenies to independent biomarker data, and show that, indeed, the pretransmission interval biases phylogeny-based estimates of when transmissions occurred. We describe situations where caution is needed not to misinterpret which parts of a phylogeny that may indicate outbreaks and tight transmission clusters. PMID:24874208

Ecological consequences of sea-ice decline.

PubMed

Post, Eric; Bhatt, Uma S; Bitz, Cecilia M; Brodie, Jedediah F; Fulton, Tara L; Hebblewhite, Mark; Kerby, Jeffrey; Kutz, Susan J; Stirling, Ian; Walker, Donald A

2013-08-02

After a decade with nine of the lowest arctic sea-ice minima on record, including the historically low minimum in 2012, we synthesize recent developments in the study of ecological responses to sea-ice decline. Sea-ice loss emerges as an important driver of marine and terrestrial ecological dynamics, influencing productivity, species interactions, population mixing, gene flow, and pathogen and disease transmission. Major challenges in the near future include assigning clearer attribution to sea ice as a primary driver of such dynamics, especially in terrestrial systems, and addressing pressures arising from human use of arctic coastal and near-shore areas as sea ice diminishes.

Transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease and intervention effectiveness in Sierra Leone

PubMed Central

Fang, Li-Qun; Yang, Yang; Jiang, Jia-Fu; Yao, Hong-Wu; Kargbo, David; Li, Xin-Lou; Jiang, Bao-Gui; Kargbo, Brima; Tong, Yi-Gang; Wang, Ya-Wei; Liu, Kun; Kamara, Abdul; Dafae, Foday; Kanu, Alex; Jiang, Rui-Ruo; Sun, Ye; Sun, Ruo-Xi; Chen, Wan-Jun; Ma, Mai-Juan; Dean, Natalie E.; Thomas, Harold; Longini, Ira M.; Halloran, M. Elizabeth; Cao, Wu-Chun

2016-01-01

Sierra Leone is the most severely affected country by an unprecedented outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa. Although successfully contained, the transmission dynamics of EVD and the impact of interventions in the country remain unclear. We established a database of confirmed and suspected EVD cases from May 2014 to September 2015 in Sierra Leone and mapped the spatiotemporal distribution of cases at the chiefdom level. A Poisson transmission model revealed that the transmissibility at the chiefdom level, estimated as the average number of secondary infections caused by a patient per week, was reduced by 43% [95% confidence interval (CI): 30%, 52%] after October 2014, when the strategic plan of the United Nations Mission for Emergency Ebola Response was initiated, and by 65% (95% CI: 57%, 71%) after the end of December 2014, when 100% case isolation and safe burials were essentially achieved, both compared with before October 2014. Population density, proximity to Ebola treatment centers, cropland coverage, and atmospheric temperature were associated with EVD transmission. The household secondary attack rate (SAR) was estimated to be 0.059 (95% CI: 0.050, 0.070) for the overall outbreak. The household SAR was reduced by 82%, from 0.093 to 0.017, after the nationwide campaign to achieve 100% case isolation and safe burials had been conducted. This study provides a complete overview of the transmission dynamics of the 2014−2015 EVD outbreak in Sierra Leone at both chiefdom and household levels. The interventions implemented in Sierra Leone seem effective in containing the epidemic, particularly in interrupting household transmission. PMID:27035948

Dynamic modeling of gearbox faults: A review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Xihui; Zuo, Ming J.; Feng, Zhipeng

2018-01-01

Gearbox is widely used in industrial and military applications. Due to high service load, harsh operating conditions or inevitable fatigue, faults may develop in gears. If the gear faults cannot be detected early, the health will continue to degrade, perhaps causing heavy economic loss or even catastrophe. Early fault detection and diagnosis allows properly scheduled shutdowns to prevent catastrophic failure and consequently result in a safer operation and higher cost reduction. Recently, many studies have been done to develop gearbox dynamic models with faults aiming to understand gear fault generation mechanism and then develop effective fault detection and diagnosis methods. This paper focuses on dynamics based gearbox fault modeling, detection and diagnosis. State-of-art and challenges are reviewed and discussed. This detailed literature review limits research results to the following fundamental yet key aspects: gear mesh stiffness evaluation, gearbox damage modeling and fault diagnosis techniques, gearbox transmission path modeling and method validation. In the end, a summary and some research prospects are presented.

Assessing Measles Transmission in the United States Following a Large Outbreak in California

PubMed Central

Blumberg, Seth; Worden, Lee; Enanoria, Wayne; Ackley, Sarah; Deiner, Michael; Liu, Fengchen; Gao, Daozhou; Lietman, Thomas; Porco, Travis

2015-01-01

The recent increase in measles cases in California may raise questions regarding the continuing success of measles control. To determine whether the dynamics of measles is qualitatively different in comparison to previous years, we assess whether the 2014-2015 measles outbreak associated with an Anaheim theme park is consistent with subcriticality by calculating maximum-likelihood estimates for the effective reproduction numbe given this year’s outbreak, using the Galton-Watson branching process model. We find that the dynamics after the initial transmission event are consistent with prior transmission, but does not exclude the possibilty that the effective reproduction number has increased. PMID:26052471

Predicting spatial spread of rabies in skunk populations using surveillance data reported by the public

PubMed Central

Streicker, Daniel G.; Fischer, Justin W.; VerCauteren, Kurt C.; Gilbert, Amy T.

2017-01-01

Background Prevention and control of wildlife disease invasions relies on the ability to predict spatio-temporal dynamics and understand the role of factors driving spread rates, such as seasonality and transmission distance. Passive disease surveillance (i.e., case reports by public) is a common method of monitoring emergence of wildlife diseases, but can be challenging to interpret due to spatial biases and limitations in data quantity and quality. Methodology/Principal findings We obtained passive rabies surveillance data from dead striped skunks (Mephitis mephitis) in an epizootic in northern Colorado, USA. We developed a dynamic patch-occupancy model which predicts spatio-temporal spreading while accounting for heterogeneous sampling. We estimated the distance travelled per transmission event, direction of invasion, rate of spatial spread, and effects of infection density and season. We also estimated mean transmission distance and rates of spatial spread using a phylogeographic approach on a subsample of viral sequences from the same epizootic. Both the occupancy and phylogeographic approaches predicted similar rates of spatio-temporal spread. Estimated mean transmission distances were 2.3 km (95% Highest Posterior Density (HPD95): 0.02, 11.9; phylogeographic) and 3.9 km (95% credible intervals (CI95): 1.4, 11.3; occupancy). Estimated rates of spatial spread in km/year were: 29.8 (HPD95: 20.8, 39.8; phylogeographic, branch velocity, homogenous model), 22.6 (HPD95: 15.3, 29.7; phylogeographic, diffusion rate, homogenous model) and 21.1 (CI95: 16.7, 25.5; occupancy). Initial colonization probability was twice as high in spring relative to fall. Conclusions/Significance Skunk-to-skunk transmission was primarily local (< 4 km) suggesting that if interventions were needed, they could be applied at the wave front. Slower viral invasions of skunk rabies in western USA compared to a similar epizootic in raccoons in the eastern USA implies host species or landscape factors underlie the dynamics of rabies invasions. Our framework provides a straightforward method for estimating rates of spatial spread of wildlife diseases. PMID:28759576

Vahan Gevorgian | NREL

Science.gov Websites

currently working with Transmission and Grid Integration group focused on renewable energy impacts on transmission and interconnection issues and dynamic modeling of variable generation systems. He is involved in

Microscopic and histochemical manifestations of hyaline cartilage dynamics.

PubMed

Malinin, G I; Malinin, T I

1999-01-01

Structure and function of hyaline cartilages has been the focus of many correlative studies for over a hundred years. Much of what is known regarding dynamics and function of cartilage constituents has been derived or inferred from biochemical and electron microscopic investigations. Here we show that in conjunction with ultrastructural, and high-magnification transmission light and polarization microscopy, the well-developed histochemical methods are indispensable for the analysis of cartilage dynamics. Microscopically demonstrable aspects of cartilage dynamics include, but are not limited to, formation of the intracellular liquid crystals, phase transitions of the extracellular matrix and tubular connections between chondrocytes. The role of the interchondrocytic liquid crystals is considered in terms of the tensegrity hypothesis and non-apoptotic cell death. Phase transitions of the extracellular matrix are discussed in terms of self-alignment of chondrons, matrix guidance pathways and cartilage growth in the absence of mitosis. The possible role of nonenzymatic glycation reactions in cartilage dynamics is also reviewed.

Technological requirements of teleneuropathological systems.

PubMed

Szymaś, J

2000-01-01

Teleneuropathology is the practice of conducting remote neuropathological examinations with the use of telecommunication links. Because of a limited number of expert neuropathologists, some, especially smaller departments have the equipment to conduct the examination but do not have a specialist who would be able to evaluate material from the central nervous system. In case of teleneuropathology, a neuropathologist examines tissue fragments taken during an operation by means of a telemicroscope connected with the computer through a telecommunications network. It enables the neuropathologist to operate the microscope and camera remotely. Two basic systems exist for performing remote neuropathological examination: static and dynamic. Both have different needs in medical, computing and telecommunication aspect. Depending on the type of service the public telephone network, the integrated services digital network, or optical fibre should be used. Conditionally Internet can be used as a link for teleneuropathological system. However, for the newest developments in teleneuropathology such as teleconference and remote operation on robotized microscope only transmission over the integrated service digital network, which guarantees high speed of transmission gives a possibility to communicate. Because images are basic information element in teleneuropathological systems the high capacity of acquisition, processing, storing, transmission, and visualization equipment is necessary. The farther development of telecommunication as well as standardization of recording and transmission procedures of pictorial data is necessary.

Modelling the seasonality of Lyme disease risk and the potential impacts of a warming climate within the heterogeneous landscapes of Scotland.

PubMed

Li, Sen; Gilbert, Lucy; Harrison, Paula A; Rounsevell, Mark D A

2016-03-01

Lyme disease is the most prevalent vector-borne disease in the temperate Northern Hemisphere. The abundance of infected nymphal ticks is commonly used as a Lyme disease risk indicator. Temperature can influence the dynamics of disease by shaping the activity and development of ticks and, hence, altering the contact pattern and pathogen transmission between ticks and their host animals. A mechanistic, agent-based model was developed to study the temperature-driven seasonality of Ixodes ricinus ticks and transmission of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato across mainland Scotland. Based on 12-year averaged temperature surfaces, our model predicted that Lyme disease risk currently peaks in autumn, approximately six weeks after the temperature peak. The risk was predicted to decrease with increasing altitude. Increases in temperature were predicted to prolong the duration of the tick questing season and expand the risk area to higher altitudinal and latitudinal regions. These predicted impacts on tick population ecology may be expected to lead to greater tick-host contacts under climate warming and, hence, greater risks of pathogen transmission. The model is useful in improving understanding of the spatial determinants and system mechanisms of Lyme disease pathogen transmission and its sensitivity to temperature changes. © 2016 The Author(s).

Modelling the seasonality of Lyme disease risk and the potential impacts of a warming climate within the heterogeneous landscapes of Scotland

PubMed Central

Gilbert, Lucy; Harrison, Paula A.; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.

2016-01-01

Lyme disease is the most prevalent vector-borne disease in the temperate Northern Hemisphere. The abundance of infected nymphal ticks is commonly used as a Lyme disease risk indicator. Temperature can influence the dynamics of disease by shaping the activity and development of ticks and, hence, altering the contact pattern and pathogen transmission between ticks and their host animals. A mechanistic, agent-based model was developed to study the temperature-driven seasonality of Ixodes ricinus ticks and transmission of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato across mainland Scotland. Based on 12-year averaged temperature surfaces, our model predicted that Lyme disease risk currently peaks in autumn, approximately six weeks after the temperature peak. The risk was predicted to decrease with increasing altitude. Increases in temperature were predicted to prolong the duration of the tick questing season and expand the risk area to higher altitudinal and latitudinal regions. These predicted impacts on tick population ecology may be expected to lead to greater tick–host contacts under climate warming and, hence, greater risks of pathogen transmission. The model is useful in improving understanding of the spatial determinants and system mechanisms of Lyme disease pathogen transmission and its sensitivity to temperature changes. PMID:27030039

Towards interruption of schistosomiasis transmission in sub-Saharan Africa: developing an appropriate environmental surveillance framework to guide and to support 'end game' interventions.

PubMed

Stothard, J Russell; Campbell, Suzy J; Osei-Atweneboana, Mike Y; Durant, Timothy; Stanton, Michelle C; Biritwum, Nana-Kwadwo; Rollinson, David; Ombede, Dieudonné R Eloundou; Tchuem-Tchuenté, Louis-Albert

2017-01-14

Schistosomiasis is a waterborne parasitic disease in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly common in rural populations living in impoverished conditions. With the scale-up of preventive chemotherapy, national campaigns will transition from morbidity- to transmission-focused interventions thus formal investigation of actual or expected declines in environmental transmission is needed as 'end game' scenarios arise. Surprisingly, there are no international or national guidelines to do so in sub-Saharan Africa. Our article therefore provides an introduction to key practicalities and pitfalls in the development of an appropriate environmental surveillance framework. In this context, we discuss how strategies need to be adapted and tailored to the local level to better guide and support future interventions through this transition. As detection of egg-patent infection in people becomes rare, careful sampling of schistosome larvae in freshwater and in aquatic snails with robust species-specific DNA assays will be required. Appropriate metrics, derived from observed prevalence(s) as compared with predetermined thresholds, could each provide a clearer insight into contamination- and exposure-related dynamics. Application could be twofold, first to certify areas currently free from schistosomiasis transmission or second to red-flag recalcitrant locations where extra effort or alternative interventions are needed.

Cost analysis of an electricity supply chain using modification of price based dynamic economic dispatch in wheeling transaction scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahyuda; Santosa, Budi; Rusdiansyah, Ahmad

2018-04-01

Deregulation of the electricity market requires coordination between parties to synchronize the optimization on the production side (power station) and the transport side (transmission). Electricity supply chain presented in this article is designed to facilitate the coordination between the parties. Generally, the production side is optimized with price based dynamic economic dispatch (PBDED) model, while the transmission side is optimized with Multi-echelon distribution model. Both sides optimization are done separately. This article proposes a joint model of PBDED and multi-echelon distribution for the combined optimization of production and transmission. This combined optimization is important because changes in electricity demand on the customer side will cause changes to the production side that automatically also alter the transmission path. The transmission will cause two cost components. First, the cost of losses. Second, the cost of using the transmission network (wheeling transaction). Costs due to losses are calculated based on ohmic losses, while the cost of using transmission lines using the MW - mile method. As a result, this method is able to provide best allocation analysis for electrical transactions, as well as emission levels in power generation and cost analysis. As for the calculation of transmission costs, the Reverse MW-mile method produces a cheaper cost than the Absolute MW-mile method

Population Density and Seasonality Effects on Sin Nombre Virus Transmission in North American Deermice (Peromyscus maniculatus) in Outdoor Enclosures

PubMed Central

Bagamian, Karoun H.; Douglass, Richard J.; Alvarado, Arlene; Kuenzi, Amy J.; Amman, Brian R.; Waller, Lance A.; Mills, James N.

2012-01-01

Surveys of wildlife host-pathogen systems often document clear seasonal variation in transmission; conclusions concerning the relationship between host population density and transmission vary. In the field, effects of seasonality and population density on natural disease cycles are challenging to measure independently, but laboratory experiments may poorly reflect what happens in nature. Outdoor manipulative experiments are an alternative that controls for some variables in a relatively natural environment. Using outdoor enclosures, we tested effects of North American deermouse (Peromyscus maniculatus) population density and season on transmission dynamics of Sin Nombre hantavirus. In early summer, mid-summer, late summer, and fall 2007–2008, predetermined numbers of infected and uninfected adult wild deermice were released into enclosures and trapped weekly or bi-weekly. We documented 18 transmission events and observed significant seasonal effects on transmission, wounding frequency, and host breeding condition. Apparent differences in transmission incidence or wounding frequency between high- and low-density treatments were not statistically significant. However, high host density was associated with a lower proportion of males with scrotal testes. Seasonality may have a stronger influence on disease transmission dynamics than host population density, and density effects cannot be considered independent of seasonality. PMID:22768034

Parasite transmission among relatives halts Red Queen dynamics.

PubMed

Greenspoon, Philip B; Mideo, Nicole

2017-03-01

The theory that coevolving hosts and parasites create a fluctuating selective environment for one another (i.e., produce Red Queen dynamics) has deep roots in evolutionary biology; yet empirical evidence for Red Queen dynamics remains scarce. Fluctuating coevolutionary dynamics underpin the Red Queen hypothesis for the evolution of sex, as well as hypotheses explaining the persistence of genetic variation under sexual selection, local parasite adaptation, the evolution of mutation rate, and the evolution of nonrandom mating. Coevolutionary models that exhibit Red Queen dynamics typically assume that hosts and parasites encounter one another randomly. However, if related individuals aggregate into family groups or are clustered spatially, related hosts will be more likely to encounter parasites transmitted by genetically similar individuals. Using a model that incorporates familial parasite transmission, we show that a slight degree of familial parasite transmission is sufficient to halt coevolutionary fluctuations. Our results predict that evidence for Red Queen dynamics, and its evolutionary consequences, are most likely to be found in biological systems in which hosts and parasites mix mainly at random, and are less likely to be found in systems with familial aggregation. This presents a challenge to the Red Queen hypothesis and other hypotheses that depend on coevolutionary cycling. © 2016 The Author(s). Evolution © 2016 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Comparative dynamics, seasonality in transmission, and predictability of childhood infections in Mexico

PubMed Central

Mahmud, A. S.; Metcalf, C. J. E.; Grenfell, B. T.

2018-01-01

The seasonality and periodicity of infections, and the mechanisms underlying observed dynamics, can have implications for control efforts. This is particularly true for acute childhood infections. Among these, the dynamics of measles is the best understood and has been extensively studied, most notably in the UK prior to the start of vaccination. Less is known about the dynamics of other childhood diseases, particularly outside Europe and the US. In this paper, we leverage a unique dataset to examine the epidemiology of six childhood infections - measles, mumps, rubella, varicella, scarlet fever and pertussis - across 32 states in Mexico from 1985 to 2007. This dataset provides us with a spatiotemporal probe into the dynamics of six common childhood infections, and allows us to compare them in the same setting over the same time period. We examine three key epidemiological characteristics of these infections – the age profile of infections, spatiotemporal dynamics, and seasonality in transmission - and compare with predictions from existing theory and past findings. Our analysis reveals interesting epidemiological differences between the six pathogens, and variations across space. We find signatures of term time forcing (reduced transmission during the summer) for measles, mumps, rubella, varicella, and scarlet fever; for pertussis, a lack of term time forcing could not be rejected. PMID:27873563

Transmission routes of African swine fever virus to domestic pigs: current knowledge and future research directions.

PubMed

Guinat, Claire; Gogin, Andrey; Blome, Sandra; Keil, Guenther; Pollin, Reiko; Pfeiffer, Dirk U; Dixon, Linda

2016-03-12

African swine fever (ASF) is a major threat to the pig industry in Europe. Since 2007, ASF outbreaks have been ongoing in the Caucasus, Eastern Europe and the Baltic countries, causing severe economic losses for many pig farmers and pork producers. In addition, the number of ASF cases in wild boar populations has dramatically increased over the past few years. Evidence supports direct contact with infectious domestic pigs and wild boars, and consumption of contaminated feed, as the main transmission routes of ASF virus (ASFV) to domestic pigs. However, significant knowledge gaps highlight the urgent need for research to investigate the dynamics of indirect transmission via the environment, the minimal infective doses for contaminated feed ingestion, the probability of effective contacts between infectious wild boars and domestic pigs, the potential for recovered animals to become carriers and a reservoir for transmission, the potential virus persistence within wild boar populations and the influence of human behaviour for the spread of ASFV. This will provide an improved scientific basis to optimise current interventions and develop new tools and strategies to reduce the risk of ASFV transmission to domestic pigs. British Veterinary Association.

Transmission routes of African swine fever virus to domestic pigs: current knowledge and future research directions

PubMed Central

Guinat, Claire; Gogin, Andrey; Blome, Sandra; Keil, Guenther; Pollin, Reiko; Pfeiffer, Dirk U.; Dixon, Linda

2016-01-01

African swine fever (ASF) is a major threat to the pig industry in Europe. Since 2007, ASF outbreaks have been ongoing in the Caucasus, Eastern Europe and the Baltic countries, causing severe economic losses for many pig farmers and pork producers. In addition, the number of ASF cases in wild boar populations has dramatically increased over the past few years. Evidence supports direct contact with infectious domestic pigs and wild boars, and consumption of contaminated feed, as the main transmission routes of ASF virus (ASFV) to domestic pigs. However, significant knowledge gaps highlight the urgent need for research to investigate the dynamics of indirect transmission via the environment, the minimal infective doses for contaminated feed ingestion, the probability of effective contacts between infectious wild boars and domestic pigs, the potential for recovered animals to become carriers and a reservoir for transmission, the potential virus persistence within wild boar populations and the influence of human behaviour for the spread of ASFV. This will provide an improved scientific basis to optimise current interventions and develop new tools and strategies to reduce the risk of ASFV transmission to domestic pigs. PMID:26966305

Development of the ITER ICH Transmission Line and Matching System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasmussen, D. A.; Goulding, R. H.; Pesavento, P. V.; Peters, B.; Swain, D. W.; Fredd, E. H.; Hosea, J.; Greenough, N.

2011-10-01

The ITER Ion Cyclotron Heating (ICH) System is designed to couple 20 MW of heating power for ion and electron heating. Prototype components for the ITER Ion Cyclotron Heating (ICH) transmission line and matching system are being designed and tested. The ICH transmission lines are pressurized 300 mm diameter coaxial lines with water-cooled aluminum outer conductor and gas-cooled and water-cooled copper inner conductor. Each ICH transmission line is designed to handle 40-55 MHz power at up to 6 MW/line. A total of 8 lines split to 16 antenna inputs on two ICH antennas. Industrial suppliers have designed coaxial transmission line and matching components and prototypes will be manufactured. The prototype components will be qualified on a test stand operating at the full power and pulse length needed for ITER. The matching system must accommodated dynamic changes in the plasma loading due to ELMS and the L to H-mode transition. Passive ELM tolerance will be performed using hybrid couplers and loads, which can absorb the transient reflected power. The system is also designed to compensate for the mutual inductances of the antenna current straps to limit the peak voltages on the antenna array elements.

A Vision for Co-optimized T&D System Interaction with Renewables and Demand Response

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, C. Lindsay; Zéphyr, Luckny; Liu, Jialin

The evolution of the power system to the reliable, effi- cient and sustainable system of the future will involve development of both demand- and supply-side technology and operations. The use of demand response to counterbalance the intermittency of re- newable generation brings the consumer into the spotlight. Though individual consumers are interconnected at the low-voltage distri- bution system, these resources are typically modeled as variables at the transmission network level. In this paper, a vision for co- optimized interaction of distribution systems, or microgrids, with the high-voltage transmission system is described. In this frame- work, microgrids encompass consumers, distributed renewablesmore » and storage. The energy management system of the microgrid can also sell (buy) excess (necessary) energy from the transmission system. Preliminary work explores price mechanisms to manage the microgrid and its interactions with the transmission system. Wholesale market operations are addressed through the devel- opment of scalable stochastic optimization methods that provide the ability to co-optimize interactions between the transmission and distribution systems. Modeling challenges of the co-optimization are addressed via solution methods for large-scale stochastic op- timization, including decomposition and stochastic dual dynamic programming.« less

Multi-host model and threshold of intermediate host Oncomelania snail density for eliminating schistosomiasis transmission in China.

PubMed

Zhou, Yi-Biao; Chen, Yue; Liang, Song; Song, Xiu-Xia; Chen, Geng-Xin; He, Zhong; Cai, Bin; Yihuo, Wu-Li; He, Zong-Gui; Jiang, Qing-Wu

2016-08-18

Schistosomiasis remains a serious public health issue in many tropical countries, with more than 700 million people at risk of infection. In China, a national integrated control strategy, aiming at blocking its transmission, has been carried out throughout endemic areas since 2005. A longitudinal study was conducted to determine the effects of different intervention measures on the transmission dynamics of S. japonicum in three study areas and the data were analyzed using a multi-host model. The multi-host model was also used to estimate the threshold of Oncomelania snail density for interrupting schistosomiasis transmission based on the longitudinal data as well as data from the national surveillance system for schistosomiasis. The data showed a continuous decline in the risk of human infection and the multi-host model fit the data well. The 25th, 50th and 75th percentiles, and the mean of estimated thresholds of Oncomelania snail density below which the schistosomiasis transmission cannot be sustained were 0.006, 0.009, 0.028 and 0.020 snails/0.11 m(2), respectively. The study results could help develop specific strategies of schistosomiasis control and elimination tailored to the local situation for each endemic area.

Predicting lymphatic filariasis transmission and elimination dynamics using a multi-model ensemble framework.

PubMed

Smith, Morgan E; Singh, Brajendra K; Irvine, Michael A; Stolk, Wilma A; Subramanian, Swaminathan; Hollingsworth, T Déirdre; Michael, Edwin

2017-03-01

Mathematical models of parasite transmission provide powerful tools for assessing the impacts of interventions. Owing to complexity and uncertainty, no single model may capture all features of transmission and elimination dynamics. Multi-model ensemble modelling offers a framework to help overcome biases of single models. We report on the development of a first multi-model ensemble of three lymphatic filariasis (LF) models (EPIFIL, LYMFASIM, and TRANSFIL), and evaluate its predictive performance in comparison with that of the constituents using calibration and validation data from three case study sites, one each from the three major LF endemic regions: Africa, Southeast Asia and Papua New Guinea (PNG). We assessed the performance of the respective models for predicting the outcomes of annual MDA strategies for various baseline scenarios thought to exemplify the current endemic conditions in the three regions. The results show that the constructed multi-model ensemble outperformed the single models when evaluated across all sites. Single models that best fitted calibration data tended to do less well in simulating the out-of-sample, or validation, intervention data. Scenario modelling results demonstrate that the multi-model ensemble is able to compensate for variance between single models in order to produce more plausible predictions of intervention impacts. Our results highlight the value of an ensemble approach to modelling parasite control dynamics. However, its optimal use will require further methodological improvements as well as consideration of the organizational mechanisms required to ensure that modelling results and data are shared effectively between all stakeholders. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling of Wildlife-Associated Zoonoses: Applications and Caveats

PubMed Central

Lewis, Bryan L.; Marathe, Madhav; Eubank, Stephen; Blackburn, Jason K.

2012-01-01

Abstract Wildlife species are identified as an important source of emerging zoonotic disease. Accordingly, public health programs have attempted to expand in scope to include a greater focus on wildlife and its role in zoonotic disease outbreaks. Zoonotic disease transmission dynamics involving wildlife are complex and nonlinear, presenting a number of challenges. First, empirical characterization of wildlife host species and pathogen systems are often lacking, and insight into one system may have little application to another involving the same host species and pathogen. Pathogen transmission characterization is difficult due to the changing nature of population size and density associated with wildlife hosts. Infectious disease itself may influence wildlife population demographics through compensatory responses that may evolve, such as decreased age to reproduction. Furthermore, wildlife reservoir dynamics can be complex, involving various host species and populations that may vary in their contribution to pathogen transmission and persistence over space and time. Mathematical models can provide an important tool to engage these complex systems, and there is an urgent need for increased computational focus on the coupled dynamics that underlie pathogen spillover at the human–wildlife interface. Often, however, scientists conducting empirical studies on emerging zoonotic disease do not have the necessary skill base to choose, develop, and apply models to evaluate these complex systems. How do modeling frameworks differ and what considerations are important when applying modeling tools to the study of zoonotic disease? Using zoonotic disease examples, we provide an overview of several common approaches and general considerations important in the modeling of wildlife-associated zoonoses. PMID:23199265

Bridging scales in the evolution of infectious disease life histories: application.

PubMed

Mideo, Nicole; Nelson, William A; Reece, Sarah E; Bell, Andrew S; Read, Andrew F; Day, Troy

2011-11-01

Within- and between-host disease processes occur on the same timescales, therefore changes in the within-host dynamics of parasites, resources, and immunity can interact with changes in the epidemiological dynamics to affect evolutionary outcomes. Consequently, studies of the evolution of disease life histories, that is, infection-age-specific patterns of transmission and virulence, have been constrained by the need for a mechanistic understanding of within-host disease dynamics. In a companion paper (Day et al. 2011), we develop a novel approach that quantifies the relevant within-host aspects of disease through genetic covariance functions. Here, we demonstrate how to apply this theory to data. Using two previously published datasets from rodent malaria infections, we show how to translate experimental measures into disease life-history traits, and how to quantify the covariance in these traits. Our results show how patterns of covariance can interact with epidemiological dynamics to affect evolutionary predictions for disease life history. We also find that the selective constraints on disease life-history evolution can vary qualitatively, and that "simple" virulence-transmission trade-offs that are often the subject of experimental investigation can be obscured by trade-offs within one trait alone. Finally, we highlight the type and quality of data required for future applications. © 2011 The Author(s). Evolution© 2011 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Highly dynamic animal contact network and implications on disease transmission

PubMed Central

Chen, Shi; White, Brad J.; Sanderson, Michael W.; Amrine, David E.; Ilany, Amiyaal; Lanzas, Cristina

2014-01-01

Contact patterns among hosts are considered as one of the most critical factors contributing to unequal pathogen transmission. Consequently, networks have been widely applied in infectious disease modeling. However most studies assume static network structure due to lack of accurate observation and appropriate analytic tools. In this study we used high temporal and spatial resolution animal position data to construct a high-resolution contact network relevant to infectious disease transmission. The animal contact network aggregated at hourly level was highly variable and dynamic within and between days, for both network structure (network degree distribution) and individual rank of degree distribution in the network (degree order). We integrated network degree distribution and degree order heterogeneities with a commonly used contact-based, directly transmitted disease model to quantify the effect of these two sources of heterogeneity on the infectious disease dynamics. Four conditions were simulated based on the combination of these two heterogeneities. Simulation results indicated that disease dynamics and individual contribution to new infections varied substantially among these four conditions under both parameter settings. Changes in the contact network had a greater effect on disease dynamics for pathogens with smaller basic reproduction number (i.e. R0 < 2). PMID:24667241

Cortical Entropy, Mutual Information and Scale-Free Dynamics in Waking Mice.

PubMed

Fagerholm, Erik D; Scott, Gregory; Shew, Woodrow L; Song, Chenchen; Leech, Robert; Knöpfel, Thomas; Sharp, David J

2016-10-01

Some neural circuits operate with simple dynamics characterized by one or a few well-defined spatiotemporal scales (e.g. central pattern generators). In contrast, cortical neuronal networks often exhibit richer activity patterns in which all spatiotemporal scales are represented. Such "scale-free" cortical dynamics manifest as cascades of activity with cascade sizes that are distributed according to a power-law. Theory and in vitro experiments suggest that information transmission among cortical circuits is optimized by scale-free dynamics. In vivo tests of this hypothesis have been limited by experimental techniques with insufficient spatial coverage and resolution, i.e., restricted access to a wide range of scales. We overcame these limitations by using genetically encoded voltage imaging to track neural activity in layer 2/3 pyramidal cells across the cortex in mice. As mice recovered from anesthesia, we observed three changes: (a) cortical information capacity increased, (b) information transmission among cortical regions increased and (c) neural activity became scale-free. Our results demonstrate that both information capacity and information transmission are maximized in the awake state in cortical regions with scale-free network dynamics. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press.

OISI dynamic end-to-end modeling tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kersten, Michael; Weidler, Alexander; Wilhelm, Rainer; Johann, Ulrich A.; Szerdahelyi, Laszlo

2000-07-01

The OISI Dynamic end-to-end modeling tool is tailored to end-to-end modeling and dynamic simulation of Earth- and space-based actively controlled optical instruments such as e.g. optical stellar interferometers. `End-to-end modeling' is meant to denote the feature that the overall model comprises besides optical sub-models also structural, sensor, actuator, controller and disturbance sub-models influencing the optical transmission, so that the system- level instrument performance due to disturbances and active optics can be simulated. This tool has been developed to support performance analysis and prediction as well as control loop design and fine-tuning for OISI, Germany's preparatory program for optical/infrared spaceborne interferometry initiated in 1994 by Dornier Satellitensysteme GmbH in Friedrichshafen.

Hierarchical structure and dynamics of oligocarbonate-functionalized PEG block copolymer gels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prabhu, Vivek; Wei, Guangmin; Ali, Samim; Venkataraman, Shrinivas; Yang, Yi Yan; Hedrick, James

Hierarchical, self-assembled block copolymers in aqueous solutions provide advanced materials for biomaterial applications. Recent advancements in the synthesis of aliphatic polycarbonates have shown nontraditional micellar and hierarchical structures driven by the supramolecular assembly of the carbonate block functionality that includes cholesterol, vitamin D, and fluorene. This presentation shall describe the supramolecular assembly structure and dynamics observed by static and dynamic light scattering, small-angle neutron scattering and transmission electron microscopy in a model pi-pi stacking driven fluorene system. The combination of real-space and reciprocal space methods to develop appropriate models that quantify the structure from the micelle to transient gel network will be discussed. 1) Biomedical Research Council, Agency for Science, Technology and Research, Singapore, 2) NIST Materials Genome Initiative.

Climate variation drives dengue dynamics

PubMed Central

Xu, Lei; Stige, Leif C.; Chan, Kung-Sik; Zhou, Jie; Yang, Jun; Sang, Shaowei; Wang, Ming; Yang, Zhicong; Yan, Ziqiang; Jiang, Tong; Lu, Liang; Yue, Yujuan; Liu, Xiaobo; Lin, Hualiang; Xu, Jianguo; Liu, Qiyong; Stenseth, Nils Chr.

2017-01-01

Dengue, a viral infection transmitted between people by mosquitoes, is one of the most rapidly spreading diseases in the world. Here, we report the analyses covering 11 y (2005–2015) from the city of Guangzhou in southern China. Using the first 8 y of data to develop an ecologically based model for the dengue system, we reliably predict the following 3 y of dengue dynamics—years with exceptionally extensive dengue outbreaks. We demonstrate that climate conditions, through the effects of rainfall and temperature on mosquito abundance and dengue transmission rate, play key roles in explaining the temporal dynamics of dengue incidence in the human population. Our study thus contributes to a better understanding of dengue dynamics and provides a predictive tool for preventive dengue reduction strategies. PMID:27940911

Biology as population dynamics: heuristics for transmission risk.

PubMed

Keebler, Daniel; Walwyn, David; Welte, Alex

2013-02-01

Population-type models, accounting for phenomena such as population lifetimes, mixing patterns, recruitment patterns, genetic evolution and environmental conditions, can be usefully applied to the biology of HIV infection and viral replication. A simple dynamic model can explore the effect of a vaccine-like stimulus on the mortality and infectiousness, which formally looks like fertility, of invading virions; the mortality of freshly infected cells; and the availability of target cells, all of which impact on the probability of infection. Variations on this model could capture the importance of the timing and duration of different key events in viral transmission, and hence be applied to questions of mucosal immunology. The dynamical insights and assumptions of such models are compatible with the continuum of between- and within-individual risks in sexual violence and may be helpful in making sense of the sparse data available on the association between HIV transmission and sexual violence. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Pull-pull position control of dual motor wire rope transmission.

PubMed

Guo, Quan; Jiao, Zongxia; Yan, Liang; Yu, Qian; Shang, Yaoxing

2016-08-01

Wire rope transmission is very efficient because of the small total moving object mass. The wire rope could only transmit pulling force. Therefore it has to be kept in a tightened state during transmission; in high speed applications the dynamic performance depends on the rope's stiffness, which can be adjusted by the wire rope tension. To improve the system dynamic performance output, this paper proposes a novel pull-pull method based on dual motors connected by wire ropes, for precise, high speed position control applications. The method can regulate target position and wire rope tension simultaneously. Wire ropes remain in a pre-tightening state at all times, which prevents the influence of elasticity and reduces the position tracking error in the changing direction process. Simulations and experiments were conducted; the results indicate that both position precision and superior dynamic performance can be synchronously achieved. The research is relevant to space craft precision pointing instruments.

Stochastic Models of Emerging Infectious Disease Transmission on Adaptive Random Networks

PubMed Central

Pipatsart, Navavat; Triampo, Wannapong

2017-01-01

We presented adaptive random network models to describe human behavioral change during epidemics and performed stochastic simulations of SIR (susceptible-infectious-recovered) epidemic models on adaptive random networks. The interplay between infectious disease dynamics and network adaptation dynamics was investigated in regard to the disease transmission and the cumulative number of infection cases. We found that the cumulative case was reduced and associated with an increasing network adaptation probability but was increased with an increasing disease transmission probability. It was found that the topological changes of the adaptive random networks were able to reduce the cumulative number of infections and also to delay the epidemic peak. Our results also suggest the existence of a critical value for the ratio of disease transmission and adaptation probabilities below which the epidemic cannot occur. PMID:29075314

QoS Differential Scheduling in Cognitive-Radio-Based Smart Grid Networks: An Adaptive Dynamic Programming Approach.

PubMed

Yu, Rong; Zhong, Weifeng; Xie, Shengli; Zhang, Yan; Zhang, Yun

2016-02-01

As the next-generation power grid, smart grid will be integrated with a variety of novel communication technologies to support the explosive data traffic and the diverse requirements of quality of service (QoS). Cognitive radio (CR), which has the favorable ability to improve the spectrum utilization, provides an efficient and reliable solution for smart grid communications networks. In this paper, we study the QoS differential scheduling problem in the CR-based smart grid communications networks. The scheduler is responsible for managing the spectrum resources and arranging the data transmissions of smart grid users (SGUs). To guarantee the differential QoS, the SGUs are assigned to have different priorities according to their roles and their current situations in the smart grid. Based on the QoS-aware priority policy, the scheduler adjusts the channels allocation to minimize the transmission delay of SGUs. The entire transmission scheduling problem is formulated as a semi-Markov decision process and solved by the methodology of adaptive dynamic programming. A heuristic dynamic programming (HDP) architecture is established for the scheduling problem. By the online network training, the HDP can learn from the activities of primary users and SGUs, and adjust the scheduling decision to achieve the purpose of transmission delay minimization. Simulation results illustrate that the proposed priority policy ensures the low transmission delay of high priority SGUs. In addition, the emergency data transmission delay is also reduced to a significantly low level, guaranteeing the differential QoS in smart grid.

Dynamics of tuberculosis transmission with exogenous reinfections and endogenous reactivation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khajanchi, Subhas; Das, Dhiraj Kumar; Kar, Tapan Kumar

2018-05-01

We propose and analyze a mathematical model for tuberculosis (TB) transmission to study the role of exogenous reinfection and endogenous reactivation. The model exhibits two equilibria: a disease free and an endemic equilibria. We observe that the TB model exhibits transcritical bifurcation when basic reproduction number R0 = 1. Our results demonstrate that the disease transmission rate β and exogenous reinfection rate α plays an important role to change the qualitative dynamics of TB. The disease transmission rate β give rises to the possibility of backward bifurcation for R0 < 1, and hence the existence of multiple endemic equilibria one of which is stable and another one is unstable. Our analysis suggests that R0 < 1 may not be sufficient to completely eliminate the disease. We also investigate that our TB transmission model undergoes Hopf-bifurcation with respect to the contact rate β and the exogenous reinfection rate α. We conducted some numerical simulations to support our analytical findings.

Memristors with diffusive dynamics as synaptic emulators for neuromorphic computing

DOE PAGES

Wang, Zhongrui; Joshi, Saumil; Savel’ev, Sergey E.; ...

2016-09-26

The accumulation and extrusion of Ca 2+ in the pre- and postsynaptic compartments play a critical role in initiating plastic changes in biological synapses. In order to emulate this fundamental process in electronic devices, we developed diffusive Ag-in-oxide memristors with a temporal response during and after stimulation similar to that of the synaptic Ca 2+ dynamics. In situ high-resolution transmission electron microscopy and nanoparticle dynamics simulations both demonstrate that Ag atoms disperse under electrical bias and regroup spontaneously under zero bias because of interfacial energy minimization, closely resembling synaptic influx and extrusion of Ca 2+, respectively. Furthermore, the diffusive memristormore » and its dynamics enable a direct emulation of both short- and long-term plasticity of biological synapses, representing an advance in hardware implementation of neuromorphic functionalities.« less

Distribution of malaria exposure in endemic countries in Africa considering country levels of effective treatment.

PubMed

Penny, Melissa A; Maire, Nicolas; Bever, Caitlin A; Pemberton-Ross, Peter; Briët, Olivier J T; Smith, David L; Gething, Peter W; Smith, Thomas A

2015-10-05

Malaria prevalence, clinical incidence, treatment, and transmission rates are dynamically interrelated. Prevalence is often considered a measure of malaria transmission, but treatment of clinical malaria reduces prevalence, and consequently also infectiousness to the mosquito vector and onward transmission. The impact of the frequency of treatment on prevalence in a population is generally not considered. This can lead to potential underestimation of malaria exposure in settings with good health systems. Furthermore, these dynamical relationships between prevalence, treatment, and transmission have not generally been taken into account in estimates of burden. Using prevalence as an input, estimates of disease incidence and transmission [as the distribution of the entomological inoculation rate (EIR)] for Plasmodium falciparum have now been made for 43 countries in Africa using both empirical relationships (that do not allow for treatment) and OpenMalaria dynamic micro-simulation models (that explicitly include the effects of treatment). For each estimate, prevalence inputs were taken from geo-statistical models fitted for the year 2010 by the Malaria Atlas Project to all available observed prevalence data. National level estimates of the effectiveness of case management in treating clinical attacks were used as inputs to the estimation of both EIR and disease incidence by the dynamic models. When coverage of effective treatment is taken into account, higher country level estimates of average EIR and thus higher disease burden, are obtained for a given prevalence level, especially where access to treatment is high, and prevalence relatively low. These methods provide a unified framework for comparison of both the immediate and longer-term impacts of case management and of preventive interventions.

Determination of crystal growth rates during rapid solidification of polycrystalline aluminum by nano-scale spatio-temporal resolution in situ transmission electron microscopy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zweiacker, K.; McKeown, J. T.; Liu, C.

In situ investigations of rapid solidification in polycrystalline Al thin films were conducted using nano-scale spatio-temporal resolution dynamic transmission electron microscopy. Differences in crystal growth rates and asymmetries in melt pool development were observed as the heat extraction geometry was varied by controlling the proximity of the laser-pulse irradiation and the associated induced melt pools to the edge of the transmission electron microscopy support grid, which acts as a large heat sink. Experimental parameters have been established to maximize the reproducibility of the material response to the laser-pulse-related heating and to ensure that observations of the dynamical behavior of themore » metal are free from artifacts, leading to accurate interpretations and quantifiable measurements with improved precision. Interface migration rate measurements revealed solidification velocities that increased consistently from ~1.3 m s –1 to ~2.5 m s –1 during the rapid solidification process of the Al thin films. Under the influence of an additional large heat sink, increased crystal growth rates as high as 3.3 m s –1 have been measured. The in situ experiments also provided evidence for development of a partially melted, two-phase region prior to the onset of rapid solidification facilitated crystal growth. As a result, using the experimental observations and associated measurements as benchmarks, finite-element modeling based calculations of the melt pool evolution after pulsed laser irradiation have been performed to obtain estimates of the temperature evolution in the thin films.« less

Determination of crystal growth rates during rapid solidification of polycrystalline aluminum by nano-scale spatio-temporal resolution in situ transmission electron microscopy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zweiacker, K., E-mail: Kai@zweiacker.org; Liu, C.; Wiezorek, J. M. K.

In situ investigations of rapid solidification in polycrystalline Al thin films were conducted using nano-scale spatio-temporal resolution dynamic transmission electron microscopy. Differences in crystal growth rates and asymmetries in melt pool development were observed as the heat extraction geometry was varied by controlling the proximity of the laser-pulse irradiation and the associated induced melt pools to the edge of the transmission electron microscopy support grid, which acts as a large heat sink. Experimental parameters have been established to maximize the reproducibility of the material response to the laser-pulse-related heating and to ensure that observations of the dynamical behavior of themore » metal are free from artifacts, leading to accurate interpretations and quantifiable measurements with improved precision. Interface migration rate measurements revealed solidification velocities that increased consistently from ∼1.3 m s{sup −1} to ∼2.5 m s{sup −1} during the rapid solidification process of the Al thin films. Under the influence of an additional large heat sink, increased crystal growth rates as high as 3.3 m s{sup −1} have been measured. The in situ experiments also provided evidence for development of a partially melted, two-phase region prior to the onset of rapid solidification facilitated crystal growth. Using the experimental observations and associated measurements as benchmarks, finite-element modeling based calculations of the melt pool evolution after pulsed laser irradiation have been performed to obtain estimates of the temperature evolution in the thin films.« less

Determination of crystal growth rates during rapid solidification of polycrystalline aluminum by nano-scale spatio-temporal resolution in situ transmission electron microscopy

DOE PAGES

Zweiacker, K.; McKeown, J. T.; Liu, C.; ...

2016-08-04

In situ investigations of rapid solidification in polycrystalline Al thin films were conducted using nano-scale spatio-temporal resolution dynamic transmission electron microscopy. Differences in crystal growth rates and asymmetries in melt pool development were observed as the heat extraction geometry was varied by controlling the proximity of the laser-pulse irradiation and the associated induced melt pools to the edge of the transmission electron microscopy support grid, which acts as a large heat sink. Experimental parameters have been established to maximize the reproducibility of the material response to the laser-pulse-related heating and to ensure that observations of the dynamical behavior of themore » metal are free from artifacts, leading to accurate interpretations and quantifiable measurements with improved precision. Interface migration rate measurements revealed solidification velocities that increased consistently from ~1.3 m s –1 to ~2.5 m s –1 during the rapid solidification process of the Al thin films. Under the influence of an additional large heat sink, increased crystal growth rates as high as 3.3 m s –1 have been measured. The in situ experiments also provided evidence for development of a partially melted, two-phase region prior to the onset of rapid solidification facilitated crystal growth. As a result, using the experimental observations and associated measurements as benchmarks, finite-element modeling based calculations of the melt pool evolution after pulsed laser irradiation have been performed to obtain estimates of the temperature evolution in the thin films.« less

Application of the Spectral Element Method to Acoustic Radiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Doyle, James F.; Rizzi, Stephen A. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

This report summarizes research to develop a capability for analysis of interior noise in enclosed structures when acoustically excited by an external random source. Of particular interest was the application to the study of noise and vibration transmission in thin-walled structures as typified by aircraft fuselages. Three related topics are focused upon. The first concerns the development of a curved frame spectral element, the second shows how the spectral element method for wave propagation in folded plate structures is extended to problems involving curved segmented plates. These are of significance because by combining these curved spectral elements with previously presented flat spectral elements, the dynamic response of geometrically complex structures can be determined. The third topic shows how spectral elements, which incorporate the effect of fluid loading on the structure, are developed for analyzing acoustic radiation from dynamically loaded extended plates.

Spin dynamics modeling in the AGS based on a stepwise ray-tracing method

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dutheil, Yann

The AGS provides a polarized proton beam to RHIC. The beam is accelerated in the AGS from Gγ= 4.5 to Gγ = 45.5 and the polarization transmission is critical to the RHIC spin program. In the recent years, various systems were implemented to improve the AGS polarization transmission. These upgrades include the double partial snakes configuration and the tune jumps system. However, 100% polarization transmission through the AGS acceleration cycle is not yet reached. The current efficiency of the polarization transmission is estimated to be around 85% in typical running conditions. Understanding the sources of depolarization in the AGS ismore » critical to improve the AGS polarized proton performances. The complexity of beam and spin dynamics, which is in part due to the specialized Siberian snake magnets, drove a strong interest for original methods of simulations. For that, the Zgoubi code, capable of direct particle and spin tracking through field maps, was here used to model the AGS. A model of the AGS using the Zgoubi code was developed and interfaced with the current system through a simple command: the AgsFromSnapRampCmd. Interfacing with the machine control system allows for fast modelization using actual machine parameters. Those developments allowed the model to realistically reproduce the optics of the AGS along the acceleration ramp. Additional developments on the Zgoubi code, as well as on post-processing and pre-processing tools, granted long term multiturn beam tracking capabilities: the tracking of realistic beams along the complete AGS acceleration cycle. Beam multiturn tracking simulations in the AGS, using realistic beam and machine parameters, provided a unique insight into the mechanisms behind the evolution of the beam emittance and polarization during the acceleration cycle. Post-processing softwares were developed to allow the representation of the relevant quantities from the Zgoubi simulations data. The Zgoubi simulations proved particularly useful to better understand the polarization losses through horizontal intrinsic spin resonances The Zgoubi model as well as the tools developed were also used for some direct applications. For instance, some beam experiment simulations allowed an accurate estimation of the expected polarization gains from machine changes. In particular, the simulations that involved involved the tune jumps system provided an accurate estimation of polarization gains and the optimum settings that would improve the performance of the AGS.« less

Ultrafast spintronics roadmap: from femtosecond spin current pulses to terahertz non-uniform spin dynamics via nano-confined spin transfer torques (Conference Presentation)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melnikov, Alexey; Razdolski, Ilya; Alekhin, Alexandr; Ilin, Nikita; Meyburg, Jan; Diesing, Detlef; Roddatis, Vladimir; Rungger, Ivan; Stamenova, Maria; Sanvito, Stefano; Bovensiepen, Uwe

2016-10-01

Further development of spintronics requires miniaturization and reduction of characteristic timescales of spin dynamics combining the nanometer spatial and femtosecond temporal ranges. These demands shift the focus of interest towards the fundamental open question of the interaction of femtosecond spin current (SC) pulses with a ferromagnet (FM). The spatio-temporal properties of the spin transfer torque (STT) exerted by ultrashort SC pulses on the FM open the time domain for studying STT fingerprint on spatially non-uniform magnetization dynamics. Using the sensitivity of magneto-induced second harmonic generation to SC, we develop technique for SC monitoring. With 20 fs resolution, we demonstrate the generation of 250 fs-long SC pulses in Fe/Au/Fe/MgO(001) structures. Their temporal profile indicates (i) nearly-ballistic hot electron transport in Au and (ii) that the pulse duration is primarily determined by the thermalization time of laser-excited hot carriers in Fe. Together with strongly spin-dependent Fe/Au interface transmission calculated for these carriers, this suggests the non-thermal spin-dependent Seebeck effect dominating the generation of ultrashort SC pulses. The analysis of SC transmission/reflection at the Au/Fe interface shows that hot electron spins orthogonal to the Fe magnetization rotate gaining huge parallel (anti-parallel) projection in transmitted (reflected) SC. This is accompanied by a STT-induced perturbation of the magnetization localized at the interface, which excites the inhomogeneous high-frequency spin dynamics in the FM. Time-resolved magneto-optical studies reveal the excitation of several standing spin wave modes in the Fe film with their spectrum extending up to 0.6 THz and indicating the STT spatial confinement to 2 nm.

Optimal packing for cascaded regenerative transmission based on phase sensitive amplifiers.

PubMed

Sorokina, Mariia; Sygletos, Stylianos; Ellis, Andrew D; Turitsyn, Sergei

2013-12-16

We investigate the transmission performance of advanced modulation formats in nonlinear regenerative channels based on cascaded phase sensitive amplifiers. We identify the impact of amplitude and phase noise dynamics along the transmission line and show that after a cascade of regenerators, densely packed single ring PSK constellations outperform multi-ring constellations. The results of this study will greatly simplify the design of future nonlinear regenerative channels for ultra-high capacity transmission.

Foot-and-mouth disease virus transmission dynamics and persistence in a herd of vaccinated dairy cattle in India

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is an important transboundary disease with substantial economic impacts. Although between-herd transmission of the disease has been well studied, studies focusing on within-herd transmission using farm-level outbreak data are rare. The aim of this study was to estimate p...

Dynamics of a network-based SIS epidemic model with nonmonotone incidence rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Chun-Hsien

2015-06-01

This paper studies the dynamics of a network-based SIS epidemic model with nonmonotone incidence rate. This type of nonlinear incidence can be used to describe the psychological effect of certain diseases spread in a contact network at high infective levels. We first find a threshold value for the transmission rate. This value completely determines the dynamics of the model and interestingly, the threshold is not dependent on the functional form of the nonlinear incidence rate. Furthermore, if the transmission rate is less than or equal to the threshold value, the disease will die out. Otherwise, it will be permanent. Numerical experiments are given to illustrate the theoretical results. We also consider the effect of the nonlinear incidence on the epidemic dynamics.

SISL and SIRL: Two knowledge dissemination models with leader nodes on cooperative learning networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jingjing; Zhang, Yumei; Man, Jiayu; Zhou, Yun; Wu, Xiaojun

2017-02-01

Cooperative learning is one of the most effective teaching methods, which has been widely used. Students' mutual contact forms a cooperative learning network in this process. Our previous research demonstrated that the cooperative learning network has complex characteristics. This study aims to investigating the dynamic spreading process of the knowledge in the cooperative learning network and the inspiration of leaders in this process. To this end, complex network transmission dynamics theory is utilized to construct the knowledge dissemination model of a cooperative learning network. Based on the existing epidemic models, we propose a new susceptible-infected-susceptible-leader (SISL) model that considers both students' forgetting and leaders' inspiration, and a susceptible-infected-removed-leader (SIRL) model that considers students' interest in spreading and leaders' inspiration. The spreading threshold λcand its impact factors are analyzed. Then, numerical simulation and analysis are delivered to reveal the dynamic transmission mechanism of knowledge and leaders' role. This work is of great significance to cooperative learning theory and teaching practice. It also enriches the theory of complex network transmission dynamics.

Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Asymptomatic Malaria: Bridging the Gap Between Annual Malaria Resurgences in a Sahelian Environment.

PubMed

Coulibaly, Drissa; Travassos, Mark A; Tolo, Youssouf; Laurens, Matthew B; Kone, Abdoulaye K; Traore, Karim; Sissoko, Mody; Niangaly, Amadou; Diarra, Issa; Daou, Modibo; Guindo, Boureima; Rebaudet, Stanislas; Kouriba, Bourema; Dessay, Nadine; Piarroux, Renaud; Plowe, Christopher V; Doumbo, Ogobara K; Thera, Mahamadou A; Gaudart, Jean

2017-12-01

In areas of seasonal malaria transmission, the incidence rate of malaria infection is presumed to be near zero at the end of the dry season. Asymptomatic individuals may constitute a major parasite reservoir during this time. We conducted a longitudinal analysis of the spatio-temporal distribution of clinical malaria and asymptomatic parasitemia over time in a Malian town to highlight these malaria transmission dynamics. For a cohort of 300 rural children followed over 2009-2014, periodicity and phase shift between malaria and rainfall were determined by spectral analysis. Spatial risk clusters of clinical episodes or carriage were identified. A nested-case-control study was conducted to assess the parasite carriage factors. Malaria infection persisted over the entire year with seasonal peaks. High transmission periods began 2-3 months after the rains began. A cluster with a low risk of clinical malaria in the town center persisted in high and low transmission periods. Throughout 2009-2014, cluster locations did not vary from year to year. Asymptomatic and gametocyte carriage were persistent, even during low transmission periods. For high transmission periods, the ratio of asymptomatic to clinical cases was approximately 0.5, but was five times higher during low transmission periods. Clinical episodes at previous high transmission periods were a protective factor for asymptomatic carriage, but carrying parasites without symptoms at a previous high transmission period was a risk factor for asymptomatic carriage. Stable malaria transmission was associated with sustained asymptomatic carriage during dry seasons. Control strategies should target persistent low-level parasitemia clusters to interrupt transmission.

Nonlinear dynamics induced anomalous Hall effect in topological insulators

PubMed Central

Wang, Guanglei; Xu, Hongya; Lai, Ying-Cheng

2016-01-01

We uncover an alternative mechanism for anomalous Hall effect. In particular, we investigate the magnetisation dynamics of an insulating ferromagnet (FM) deposited on the surface of a three-dimensional topological insulator (TI), subject to an external voltage. The spin-polarised current on the TI surface induces a spin-transfer torque on the magnetisation of the top FM while its dynamics can change the transmission probability of the surface electrons through the exchange coupling and hence the current. We find a host of nonlinear dynamical behaviors including multistability, chaos, and phase synchronisation. Strikingly, a dynamics mediated Hall-like current can arise, which exhibits a nontrivial dependence on the channel conductance. We develop a physical understanding of the mechanism that leads to the anomalous Hall effect. The nonlinear dynamical origin of the effect stipulates that a rich variety of final states exist, implying that the associated Hall current can be controlled to yield desirable behaviors. The phenomenon can find applications in Dirac-material based spintronics. PMID:26819223

Nonlinear dynamics induced anomalous Hall effect in topological insulators.

PubMed

Wang, Guanglei; Xu, Hongya; Lai, Ying-Cheng

2016-01-28

We uncover an alternative mechanism for anomalous Hall effect. In particular, we investigate the magnetisation dynamics of an insulating ferromagnet (FM) deposited on the surface of a three-dimensional topological insulator (TI), subject to an external voltage. The spin-polarised current on the TI surface induces a spin-transfer torque on the magnetisation of the top FM while its dynamics can change the transmission probability of the surface electrons through the exchange coupling and hence the current. We find a host of nonlinear dynamical behaviors including multistability, chaos, and phase synchronisation. Strikingly, a dynamics mediated Hall-like current can arise, which exhibits a nontrivial dependence on the channel conductance. We develop a physical understanding of the mechanism that leads to the anomalous Hall effect. The nonlinear dynamical origin of the effect stipulates that a rich variety of final states exist, implying that the associated Hall current can be controlled to yield desirable behaviors. The phenomenon can find applications in Dirac-material based spintronics.

The effect of dietary antioxidant supplementation in a vertebrate host on the infection dynamics and transmission of avian malaria to the vector.

PubMed

Delhaye, Jessica; Glaizot, Olivier; Christe, Philippe

2018-05-09

Host susceptibility to parasites is likely to be influenced by intrinsic factors, such as host oxidative status determined by the balance between pro-oxidant production and antioxidant defences. As a result, host oxidative status acts as an environmental factor for parasites and may constrain parasite development. We evaluated the role of host oxidative status on infection dynamics of an avian malarial parasite by providing canaries (Serinus canaria) with an antioxidant supplementation composed of vitamin E (a lipophilic antioxidant) and olive oil, a source of monounsaturated fatty acids. Another group received a standard, non-supplemented food. Half of the birds in each group where then infected with the haemosporidian parasite, Plasmodium relictum. We monitored the parasitaemia, haematocrit level, and red cell membrane resistance, as well as the transmission success of the parasite to its mosquito vector, Culex pipiens. During the acute phase, the negative effect of the infection was more severe in the supplemented group, as shown by a lower haematocrit level. Parasitaemia was lower in the supplemented group during the chronic phase only. Mosquitoes fed on supplemented hosts were more often infected than mosquitoes fed on the control group. These results suggest that dietary antioxidant supplementation conferred protection against Plasmodium in the long term, at the expense of a short-term negative effect. Malaria parasites may take advantage of antioxidants, as shown by the increased transmission rate in the supplemented group. Overall, our results suggest an important role of oxidative status in infection outcome and parasite transmission.

Development and application of a modified wireless tracer for disaster prevention

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chung Yang, Han; Su, Chih Chiang

2016-04-01

Typhoon-induced flooding causes water overflow in a river channel, which results in general and bridge scour and soil erosion, thus leading to bridge failure, debris flow and landslide collapse. Therefore, dynamic measurement technology should be developed to assess scour in channels and landslide as a disaster-prevention measure against bridge failure and debris flow. This paper presents a wireless tracer that enables monitoring general scour in river channels and soil erosion in hillsides. The wireless tracer comprises a wireless high-power radio modem, various electronic components, and a self-designed printed circuit board that are all combined with a 9-V battery pack and an auto switch. The entire device is sealed in a jar by silicon. After it was modified, the wireless tracer underwent the following tests for practical applications: power continuation and durability, water penetration, and signal transmission during floating. A regression correlation between the wireless tracer's transmission signal and distance was also established. This device can be embedded at any location where scouring is monitored, and, in contrast to its counterparts that detect scour depth by identifying and analyzing received signals, it enables real-time observation of the scouring process. In summary, the wireless tracer developed in this study provides a dynamic technology for real-time monitoring of scouring (or erosion) and forecasting of landslide hazards. Keywords: wireless tracer; scour; real-time monitoring; landslide hazard.

A fuzzy-theory-based method for studying the effect of information transmission on nonlinear crowd dispersion dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Libi; Song, Weiguo; Lo, Siuming

2017-01-01

Emergencies involved in mass events are related to a variety of factors and processes. An important factor is the transmission of information on danger that has an influence on nonlinear crowd dynamics during the process of crowd dispersion. Due to much uncertainty in this process, there is an urgent need to propose a method to investigate the influence. In this paper, a novel fuzzy-theory-based method is presented to study crowd dynamics under the influence of information transmission. Fuzzy functions and rules are designed for the ambiguous description of human states. Reasonable inference is employed to decide the output values of decision making such as pedestrian movement speed and directions. Through simulation under four-way pedestrian situations, good crowd dispersion phenomena are achieved. Simulation results under different conditions demonstrate that information transmission cannot always induce successful crowd dispersion in all situations. This depends on whether decision strategies in response to information on danger are unified and effective, especially in dense crowds. Results also suggest that an increase in drift strength at low density and the percentage of pedestrians, who choose one of the furthest unoccupied Von Neumann neighbors from the dangerous source as the drift direction at high density, is helpful in crowd dispersion. Compared with previous work, our comprehensive study improves an in-depth understanding of nonlinear crowd dynamics under the effect of information on danger.

Mathematical models to characterize early epidemic growth: A Review

PubMed Central

Chowell, Gerardo; Sattenspiel, Lisa; Bansal, Shweta; Viboud, Cécile

2016-01-01

There is a long tradition of using mathematical models to generate insights into the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases and assess the potential impact of different intervention strategies. The increasing use of mathematical models for epidemic forecasting has highlighted the importance of designing reliable models that capture the baseline transmission characteristics of specific pathogens and social contexts. More refined models are needed however, in particular to account for variation in the early growth dynamics of real epidemics and to gain a better understanding of the mechanisms at play. Here, we review recent progress on modeling and characterizing early epidemic growth patterns from infectious disease outbreak data, and survey the types of mathematical formulations that are most useful for capturing a diversity of early epidemic growth profiles, ranging from sub-exponential to exponential growth dynamics. Specifically, we review mathematical models that incorporate spatial details or realistic population mixing structures, including meta-population models, individual-based network models, and simple SIR-type models that incorporate the effects of reactive behavior changes or inhomogeneous mixing. In this process, we also analyze simulation data stemming from detailed large-scale agent-based models previously designed and calibrated to study how realistic social networks and disease transmission characteristics shape early epidemic growth patterns, general transmission dynamics, and control of international disease emergencies such as the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic and the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic in West Africa. PMID:27451336

Mathematical models to characterize early epidemic growth: A review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chowell, Gerardo; Sattenspiel, Lisa; Bansal, Shweta; Viboud, Cécile

2016-09-01

There is a long tradition of using mathematical models to generate insights into the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases and assess the potential impact of different intervention strategies. The increasing use of mathematical models for epidemic forecasting has highlighted the importance of designing reliable models that capture the baseline transmission characteristics of specific pathogens and social contexts. More refined models are needed however, in particular to account for variation in the early growth dynamics of real epidemics and to gain a better understanding of the mechanisms at play. Here, we review recent progress on modeling and characterizing early epidemic growth patterns from infectious disease outbreak data, and survey the types of mathematical formulations that are most useful for capturing a diversity of early epidemic growth profiles, ranging from sub-exponential to exponential growth dynamics. Specifically, we review mathematical models that incorporate spatial details or realistic population mixing structures, including meta-population models, individual-based network models, and simple SIR-type models that incorporate the effects of reactive behavior changes or inhomogeneous mixing. In this process, we also analyze simulation data stemming from detailed large-scale agent-based models previously designed and calibrated to study how realistic social networks and disease transmission characteristics shape early epidemic growth patterns, general transmission dynamics, and control of international disease emergencies such as the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic and the 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic in West Africa.

Species interactions may help explain the erratic periodicity of whooping cough dynamics.

PubMed

Bhattacharyya, Samit; Ferrari, Matthew J; Bjørnstad, Ottar N

2017-12-14

Incidence of whooping cough exhibits variable dynamics across time and space. The periodicity of this disease varies from annual to five years in different geographic regions in both developing and developed countries. Many hypotheses have been put forward to explain this variability such as nonlinearity and seasonality, stochasticity, variable recruitment of susceptible individuals via birth, immunization, and immune boosting. We propose an alternative hypothesis to describe the variability in periodicity - the intricate dynamical variability of whooping cough may arise from interactions between its dominant etiological agents of Bordetella pertussis and Bordetella parapertussis. We develop a two-species age-structured model, where two pathogens are allowed to interact by age-dependent convalescence of individuals with severe illness from infections. With moderate strength of interactions, the model exhibits multi-annual coexisting attractors that depend on the R 0 of the two pathogens. We also examine how perturbation from case importation and noise in transmission may push the system from one dynamical regime to another. The coexistence of multi-annual cycles and the behavior of switching between attractors suggest that variable dynamics of whopping cough could be an emergent property of its multi-agent etiology. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Studying Vertical Microbiome Transmission from Mothers to Infants by Strain-Level Metagenomic Profiling.

PubMed

Asnicar, Francesco; Manara, Serena; Zolfo, Moreno; Truong, Duy Tin; Scholz, Matthias; Armanini, Federica; Ferretti, Pamela; Gorfer, Valentina; Pedrotti, Anna; Tett, Adrian; Segata, Nicola

2017-01-01

The gut microbiome becomes shaped in the first days of life and continues to increase its diversity during the first months. Links between the configuration of the infant gut microbiome and infant health are being shown, but a comprehensive strain-level assessment of microbes vertically transmitted from mother to infant is still missing. We collected fecal and breast milk samples from multiple mother-infant pairs during the first year of life and applied shotgun metagenomic sequencing followed by computational strain-level profiling. We observed that several specific strains, including those of Bifidobacterium bifidum , Coprococcus comes , and Ruminococcus bromii , were present in samples from the same mother-infant pair, while being clearly distinct from those carried by other pairs, which is indicative of vertical transmission. We further applied metatranscriptomics to study the in vivo gene expression of vertically transmitted microbes and found that transmitted strains of Bacteroides and Bifidobacterium species were transcriptionally active in the guts of both adult and infant. By combining longitudinal microbiome sampling and newly developed computational tools for strain-level microbiome analysis, we demonstrated that it is possible to track the vertical transmission of microbial strains from mother to infants and to characterize their transcriptional activity. Our work provides the foundation for larger-scale surveys to identify the routes of vertical microbial transmission and its influence on postinfancy microbiome development. IMPORTANCE Early infant exposure is important in the acquisition and ultimate development of a healthy infant microbiome. There is increasing support for the idea that the maternal microbial reservoir is a key route of microbial transmission, and yet much is inferred from the observation of shared species in mother and infant. The presence of common species, per se , does not necessarily equate to vertical transmission, as species exhibit considerable strain heterogeneity. It is therefore imperative to assess whether shared microbes belong to the same genetic variant (i.e., strain) to support the hypothesis of vertical transmission. Here we demonstrate the potential of shotgun metagenomics and strain-level profiling to identify vertical transmission events. Combining these data with metatranscriptomics, we show that it is possible not only to identify and track the fate of microbes in the early infant microbiome but also to investigate the actively transcribing members of the community. These approaches will ultimately provide important insights into the acquisition, development, and community dynamics of the infant microbiome.

Studying Vertical Microbiome Transmission from Mothers to Infants by Strain-Level Metagenomic Profiling

PubMed Central

Manara, Serena; Truong, Duy Tin; Armanini, Federica; Ferretti, Pamela; Gorfer, Valentina; Pedrotti, Anna

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT The gut microbiome becomes shaped in the first days of life and continues to increase its diversity during the first months. Links between the configuration of the infant gut microbiome and infant health are being shown, but a comprehensive strain-level assessment of microbes vertically transmitted from mother to infant is still missing. We collected fecal and breast milk samples from multiple mother-infant pairs during the first year of life and applied shotgun metagenomic sequencing followed by computational strain-level profiling. We observed that several specific strains, including those of Bifidobacterium bifidum, Coprococcus comes, and Ruminococcus bromii, were present in samples from the same mother-infant pair, while being clearly distinct from those carried by other pairs, which is indicative of vertical transmission. We further applied metatranscriptomics to study the in vivo gene expression of vertically transmitted microbes and found that transmitted strains of Bacteroides and Bifidobacterium species were transcriptionally active in the guts of both adult and infant. By combining longitudinal microbiome sampling and newly developed computational tools for strain-level microbiome analysis, we demonstrated that it is possible to track the vertical transmission of microbial strains from mother to infants and to characterize their transcriptional activity. Our work provides the foundation for larger-scale surveys to identify the routes of vertical microbial transmission and its influence on postinfancy microbiome development. IMPORTANCE Early infant exposure is important in the acquisition and ultimate development of a healthy infant microbiome. There is increasing support for the idea that the maternal microbial reservoir is a key route of microbial transmission, and yet much is inferred from the observation of shared species in mother and infant. The presence of common species, per se, does not necessarily equate to vertical transmission, as species exhibit considerable strain heterogeneity. It is therefore imperative to assess whether shared microbes belong to the same genetic variant (i.e., strain) to support the hypothesis of vertical transmission. Here we demonstrate the potential of shotgun metagenomics and strain-level profiling to identify vertical transmission events. Combining these data with metatranscriptomics, we show that it is possible not only to identify and track the fate of microbes in the early infant microbiome but also to investigate the actively transcribing members of the community. These approaches will ultimately provide important insights into the acquisition, development, and community dynamics of the infant microbiome. PMID:28144631

Effect of extended tooth contact on the modeling of spur gear transmissions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oswald, Fred B.; Coy, John J.; Lin, Hsiang Hsi; Wang, Jifeng

1993-01-01

In some gear dynamic models, the effect of tooth flexibility is ignored when the model determines which pairs of teeth are in contact. Deflection of loaded teeth is not introduced until the equations of motion are solved. This means the zone of tooth contact and average tooth meshing stiffness are underestimated and the individual tooth load is overstated, especially for heavily-loaded gears. The static transmission error and dynamic load of heavily-loaded, low-contact-ratio spur gears is compared with this effect both neglected and included. Neglecting the effect yields an underestimate of resonance speeds and an overestimate of the dynamic load.

Evaluation of the effectiveness of elastomeric mount using vibration power flow and transmissibility methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arib Rejab, M. N.; Shukor, S. A. Abdul; Sofian, M. R. Mohd; Inayat-Hussain, J. I.; Nazirah, A.; Asyraf, I.

2017-10-01

This paper presents the results of an experimental work to determine the dynamic stiffness and loss factor of elastomeric mounts. It also presents the results of theoretical analysis to determine the transmissibility and vibration power flow of these mounts, which are associated with their contribution to structure-borne noise. Four types of elastomeric mounts were considered, where three of them were made from green natural rubber material (SMR CV60, Ekoprena and Pureprena) and one made from petroleum based synthetic rubber (EPDM). In order to determine the dynamic stiffness and loss factor of these elastomeric mounts, dynamic tests were conducted using MTS 830 Elastomer Test System. Dynamic stiffness and loss factor of these mounts were measured for a range of frequency between 5 Hz and 150 Hz, and with a dynamic amplitude of 0.2 mm (p-p). The transmissibility and vibration power flow were determined based on a simple 2-Degree-of-Freedom model representing a vibration isolation system with a flexible receiver. This model reprsents the three main parts of a vehicle, which are the powertrain and engine mounting, the flexible structure and the floor of the vehicle. The results revealed that synthetic rubber (EPDM) was only effective at high frequency region. Natural rubber (Ekoprena), on the other hand, was found to be effective at both low and high frequency regions due to its low transmissibility at resonant frequency and its ability to damp the resonance. The estimated structure-borne noise emission showed that Ekoprena has a lower contribution to structure-borne noise as compared to the other types of elastomeric mounts.

Does interspecific competition have a moderating effect on Taenia solium transmission dynamics in Southeast Asia?

PubMed

Conlan, James V; Vongxay, Khamphouth; Fenwick, Stanley; Blacksell, Stuart D; Thompson, R C Andrew

2009-09-01

It is well understood that sociocultural practices strongly influence Taenia solium transmission; however, the extent to which interspecific parasite competition moderates Taenia transmission has yet to be determined. This is certainly the case in Southeast Asia where T. solium faces competition in both the definitive host (people) and the intermediate host (pigs). In people, adult worms of T. solium, T. saginata and T. asiatica compete through density-dependent crowding mechanisms. In pigs, metacestodes of T. solium, T. hydatigena and T. asiatica compete through density-dependent immune-mediated interactions. Here, we describe the biological and epidemiological implications of Taenia competition and propose that interspecific competition has a moderating effect on the transmission dynamics of T. solium in the region. Furthermore, we argue that this competitive ecological scenario should be considered in future research and surveillance activities examining T. solium cysticercosis and taeniasis in Southeast Asia.

Network information analysis reveals risk perception transmission in a behaviour-influenza dynamics system.

PubMed

Liao, C-M; You, S-H; Cheng, Y-H

2015-01-01

Influenza poses a significant public health burden worldwide. Understanding how and to what extent people would change their behaviour in response to influenza outbreaks is critical for formulating public health policies. We incorporated the information-theoretic framework into a behaviour-influenza (BI) transmission dynamics system in order to understand the effects of individual behavioural change on influenza epidemics. We showed that information transmission of risk perception played a crucial role in the spread of health-seeking behaviour throughout influenza epidemics. Here a network BI model provides a new approach for understanding the risk perception spread and human behavioural change during disease outbreaks. Our study allows simultaneous consideration of epidemiological, psychological, and social factors as predictors of individual perception rates in behaviour-disease transmission systems. We suggest that a monitoring system with precise information on risk perception should be constructed to effectively promote health behaviours in preparation for emerging disease outbreaks.

Sensitivity analysis of the parameters of an HIV/AIDS model with condom campaign and antiretroviral therapy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marsudi, Hidayat, Noor; Wibowo, Ratno Bagus Edy

2017-12-01

In this article, we present a deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of HIV/AIDS in which condom campaign and antiretroviral therapy are both important for the disease management. We calculate the effective reproduction number using the next generation matrix method and investigate the local and global stability of the disease-free equilibrium of the model. Sensitivity analysis of the effective reproduction number with respect to the model parameters were carried out. Our result shows that efficacy rate of condom campaign, transmission rate for contact with the asymptomatic infective, progression rate from the asymptomatic infective to the pre-AIDS infective, transmission rate for contact with the pre-AIDS infective, ARV therapy rate, proportion of the susceptible receiving condom campaign and proportion of the pre-AIDS receiving ARV therapy are highly sensitive parameters that effect the transmission dynamics of HIV/AIDS infection.

Experimental pig-to-pig transmission dynamics for African swine fever virus, Georgia 2007/1 strain.

PubMed

Guinat, C; Gubbins, S; Vergne, T; Gonzales, J L; Dixon, L; Pfeiffer, D U

2016-01-01

African swine fever virus (ASFV) continues to cause outbreaks in domestic pigs and wild boar in Eastern European countries. To gain insights into its transmission dynamics, we estimated the pig-to-pig basic reproduction number (R 0) for the Georgia 2007/1 ASFV strain using a stochastic susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model with parameters estimated from transmission experiments. Models showed that R 0 is 2·8 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1·3-4·8] within a pen and 1·4 (95% CI 0·6-2·4) between pens. The results furthermore suggest that ASFV genome detection in oronasal samples is an effective diagnostic tool for early detection of infection. This study provides quantitative information on transmission parameters for ASFV in domestic pigs, which are required to more effectively assess the potential impact of strategies for the control of between-farm epidemic spread in European countries.

Projecting malaria hazard from climate change in eastern Africa using large ensembles to estimate uncertainty.

PubMed

Leedale, Joseph; Tompkins, Adrian M; Caminade, Cyril; Jones, Anne E; Nikulin, Grigory; Morse, Andrew P

2016-03-31

The effect of climate change on the spatiotemporal dynamics of malaria transmission is studied using an unprecedented ensemble of climate projections, employing three diverse bias correction and downscaling techniques, in order to partially account for uncertainty in climate- driven malaria projections. These large climate ensembles drive two dynamical and spatially explicit epidemiological malaria models to provide future hazard projections for the focus region of eastern Africa. While the two malaria models produce very distinct transmission patterns for the recent climate, their response to future climate change is similar in terms of sign and spatial distribution, with malaria transmission moving to higher altitudes in the East African Community (EAC) region, while transmission reduces in lowland, marginal transmission zones such as South Sudan. The climate model ensemble generally projects warmer and wetter conditions over EAC. The simulated malaria response appears to be driven by temperature rather than precipitation effects. This reduces the uncertainty due to the climate models, as precipitation trends in tropical regions are very diverse, projecting both drier and wetter conditions with the current state-of-the-art climate model ensemble. The magnitude of the projected changes differed considerably between the two dynamical malaria models, with one much more sensitive to climate change, highlighting that uncertainty in the malaria projections is also associated with the disease modelling approach.

Is it growing exponentially fast? -- Impact of assuming exponential growth for characterizing and forecasting epidemics with initial near-exponential growth dynamics.

PubMed

Chowell, Gerardo; Viboud, Cécile

2016-10-01

The increasing use of mathematical models for epidemic forecasting has highlighted the importance of designing models that capture the baseline transmission characteristics in order to generate reliable epidemic forecasts. Improved models for epidemic forecasting could be achieved by identifying signature features of epidemic growth, which could inform the design of models of disease spread and reveal important characteristics of the transmission process. In particular, it is often taken for granted that the early growth phase of different growth processes in nature follow early exponential growth dynamics. In the context of infectious disease spread, this assumption is often convenient to describe a transmission process with mass action kinetics using differential equations and generate analytic expressions and estimates of the reproduction number. In this article, we carry out a simulation study to illustrate the impact of incorrectly assuming an exponential-growth model to characterize the early phase (e.g., 3-5 disease generation intervals) of an infectious disease outbreak that follows near-exponential growth dynamics. Specifically, we assess the impact on: 1) goodness of fit, 2) bias on the growth parameter, and 3) the impact on short-term epidemic forecasts. Designing transmission models and statistical approaches that more flexibly capture the profile of epidemic growth could lead to enhanced model fit, improved estimates of key transmission parameters, and more realistic epidemic forecasts.

Development of an environmental high-voltage electron microscope for reaction science.

PubMed

Tanaka, Nobuo; Usukura, Jiro; Kusunoki, Michiko; Saito, Yahachi; Sasaki, Katuhiro; Tanji, Takayoshi; Muto, Shunsuke; Arai, Shigeo

2013-02-01

Environmental transmission electron microscopy and ultra-high resolution electron microscopic observation using aberration correctors have recently emerged as topics of great interest. The former method is an extension of the so-called in situ electron microscopy that has been performed since the 1970s. Current research in this area has been focusing on dynamic observation with atomic resolution under gaseous atmospheres and in liquids. Since 2007, Nagoya University has been developing a new 1-MV high voltage (scanning) transmission electron microscope that can be used to observe nanomaterials under conditions that include the presence of gases, liquids and illuminating lights, and it can be also used to perform mechanical operations to nanometre-sized areas as well as electron tomography and elemental analysis by electron energy loss spectroscopy. The new instrument has been used to image and analyse various types of samples including biological ones.

Spur, helical, and spiral bevel transmission life modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Savage, Michael; Rubadeux, Kelly L.; Coe, Harold H.; Coy, John J.

1994-01-01

A computer program, TLIFE, which estimates the life, dynamic capacity, and reliability of aircraft transmissions, is presented. The program enables comparisons of transmission service life at the design stage for optimization. A variety of transmissions may be analyzed including: spur, helical, and spiral bevel reductions as well as series combinations of these reductions. The basic spur and helical reductions include: single mesh, compound, and parallel path plus revert star and planetary gear trains. A variety of straddle and overhung bearing configurations on the gear shafts are possible as is the use of a ring gear for the output. The spiral bevel reductions include single and dual input drives with arbitrary shaft angles. The program is written in FORTRAN 77 and has been executed both in the personal computer DOS environment and on UNIX workstations. The analysis may be performed in either the SI metric or the English inch system of units. The reliability and life analysis is based on the two-parameter Weibull distribution lives of the component gears and bearings. The program output file describes the overall transmission and each constituent transmission, its components, and their locations, capacities, and loads. Primary output is the dynamic capacity and 90-percent reliability and mean lives of the unit transmissions and the overall system which can be used to estimate service overhaul frequency requirements. Two examples are presented to illustrate the information available for single element and series transmissions.

Host heterogeneity affects both parasite transmission to and fitness on subsequent hosts

PubMed Central

Young, Kyle A.; Fox, Jordan; Jokela, Jukka

2017-01-01

Infectious disease dynamics depend on the speed, number and fitness of parasites transmitting from infected hosts (‘donors’) to parasite-naive ‘recipients’. Donor heterogeneity likely affects these three parameters, and may arise from variation between donors in traits including: (i) infection load, (ii) resistance, (iii) stage of infection, and (iv) previous experience of transmission. We used the Trinidadian guppy, Poecilia reticulata, and a directly transmitted monogenean ectoparasite, Gyrodactylus turnbulli, to experimentally explore how these sources of donor heterogeneity affect the three transmission parameters. We exposed parasite-naive recipients to donors (infected with a single parasite strain) differing in their infection traits, and found that donor infection traits had diverse and sometimes interactive effects on transmission. First, although transmission speed increased with donor infection load, the relationship was nonlinear. Second, while the number of parasites transmitted generally increased with donor infection load, more resistant donors transmitted more parasites, as did those with previous transmission experience. Finally, parasites transmitting from experienced donors exhibited lower population growth rates on recipients than those from inexperienced donors. Stage of infection had little effect on transmission parameters. These results suggest that a more holistic consideration of within-host processes will improve our understanding of between-host transmission and hence disease dynamics. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission’. PMID:28289260

A comparison of transmission characteristics of Salmonella enterica serovar Enteritidis between pair-housed and group-housed laying hens.

PubMed

Thomas, Ekelijn; Bouma, Annemarie; Klinkenberg, Don

2011-02-23

Human cases of bacterial gastro-enteritis are often caused by the consumption of eggs contaminated with Salmonella species, mainly Salmonella enterica serovar Enteriditis (Salmonella Enteritidis). To reduce human exposure, in several countries worldwide surveillance programmes are implemented to detect colonized layer flocks. The sampling schemes are based on the within-flock prevalence, and, as this changes over time, knowledge of the within-flock dynamics of Salmonella Enteritidis is required. Transmission of Salmonella Enteritidis has been quantified in pairs of layers, but the question is whether the dynamics in pairs is comparable to transmission in large groups, which are more representative for commercial layer flocks. The aim of this study was to compare results of transmission experiments between pairs and groups of laying hens. Experimental groups of either 2 or 200 hens were housed at similar densities, and 1 or 4 hens were inoculated with Salmonella Enteritidis, respectively. Excretion was monitored by regularly testing of fecal samples for the presence of Salmonella Enteritidis. Using mathematical modeling, the group experiments were simulated with transmission parameter estimates from the pairwise experiments. Transmission of the bacteria did not differ significantly between pairs or groups. This finding suggests that the transmission parameter estimates from small-scale experiments might be extrapolated to the field situation.

A Novel Dynamic Spectrum Access Framework Based on Reinforcement Learning for Cognitive Radio Sensor Networks.

PubMed

Lin, Yun; Wang, Chao; Wang, Jiaxing; Dou, Zheng

2016-10-12

Cognitive radio sensor networks are one of the kinds of application where cognitive techniques can be adopted and have many potential applications, challenges and future research trends. According to the research surveys, dynamic spectrum access is an important and necessary technology for future cognitive sensor networks. Traditional methods of dynamic spectrum access are based on spectrum holes and they have some drawbacks, such as low accessibility and high interruptibility, which negatively affect the transmission performance of the sensor networks. To address this problem, in this paper a new initialization mechanism is proposed to establish a communication link and set up a sensor network without adopting spectrum holes to convey control information. Specifically, firstly a transmission channel model for analyzing the maximum accessible capacity for three different polices in a fading environment is discussed. Secondly, a hybrid spectrum access algorithm based on a reinforcement learning model is proposed for the power allocation problem of both the transmission channel and the control channel. Finally, extensive simulations have been conducted and simulation results show that this new algorithm provides a significant improvement in terms of the tradeoff between the control channel reliability and the efficiency of the transmission channel.

A Novel Dynamic Spectrum Access Framework Based on Reinforcement Learning for Cognitive Radio Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Lin, Yun; Wang, Chao; Wang, Jiaxing; Dou, Zheng

2016-01-01

Cognitive radio sensor networks are one of the kinds of application where cognitive techniques can be adopted and have many potential applications, challenges and future research trends. According to the research surveys, dynamic spectrum access is an important and necessary technology for future cognitive sensor networks. Traditional methods of dynamic spectrum access are based on spectrum holes and they have some drawbacks, such as low accessibility and high interruptibility, which negatively affect the transmission performance of the sensor networks. To address this problem, in this paper a new initialization mechanism is proposed to establish a communication link and set up a sensor network without adopting spectrum holes to convey control information. Specifically, firstly a transmission channel model for analyzing the maximum accessible capacity for three different polices in a fading environment is discussed. Secondly, a hybrid spectrum access algorithm based on a reinforcement learning model is proposed for the power allocation problem of both the transmission channel and the control channel. Finally, extensive simulations have been conducted and simulation results show that this new algorithm provides a significant improvement in terms of the tradeoff between the control channel reliability and the efficiency of the transmission channel. PMID:27754316

Dynamic coordinated control during mode transition process for a compound power-split hybrid electric vehicle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Yanzhao; Hu, Minghui; Su, Ling; Qin, Datong; Zhang, Tong; Fu, Chunyun

2018-07-01

The fuel economy of the hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) can be effectively improved by the mode transition (MT). However, for a power-split powertrain whose power-split transmission is directly connected to the engine, the engine ripple torque (ERT), inconsistent dynamic characteristics (IDC) of engine and motors, model estimation inaccuracies (MEI), system parameter uncertainties (SPU) can cause jerk and vibration of transmission system during the MT process, which will reduce the driving comfort and the life of the drive parts. To tackle these problems, a dynamic coordinated control strategy (DCCS), including a staged engine torque feedforward and feedback estimation (ETFBC) and an active damping feedback compensation (ADBC) based on drive shaft torque estimation (DSTE), is proposed. And the effectiveness of this strategy is verified using a plant model. Firstly, the powertrain plant model is established, and the MT process and problems are analyzed. Secondly, considering the characteristics of the engine torque estimation (ETE) model before and after engine ignition, a motor torque compensation control based on the staged ERT estimation is developed. Then, considering the MEI, SPU and the load change, an ADBC based on a real-time nonlinear reduced-order robust observer of the DSTE is designed. Finally, the simulation results show that the proposed DCCS can effectively improve the driving comfort.

Spatially structured superinfection and the evolution of disease virulence.

PubMed

Caraco, Thomas; Glavanakov, Stephan; Li, Shengua; Maniatty, William; Szymanski, Boleslaw K

2006-06-01

When pathogen strains differing in virulence compete for hosts, spatial structuring of disease transmission can govern both evolved levels of virulence and patterns in strain coexistence. We develop a spatially detailed model of superinfection, a form of contest competition between pathogen strains; the probability of superinfection depends explicitly on the difference in levels of virulence. We apply methods of adaptive dynamics to address the interplay of spatial dynamics and evolution. The mean-field approximation predicts evolution to criticality; any small increase in virulence capable of dynamical persistence is favored. Both pair approximation and simulation of the detailed model indicate that spatial structure constrains disease virulence. Increased spatial clustering reduces the maximal virulence capable of single-strain persistence and, more importantly, reduces the convergent-stable virulence level under strain competition. The spatially detailed model predicts that increasing the probability of superinfection, for given difference in virulence, increases the likelihood of between-strain coexistence. When strains differing in virulence can coexist ecologically, our results may suggest policies for managing diseases with localized transmission. Comparing equilibrium densities from the pair approximation, we find that introducing a more virulent strain into a host population infected by a less virulent strain can sometimes reduce total host mortality and increase global host density.

Reduced Perceptual Exclusivity during Object and Grating Rivalry in Autism

PubMed Central

Freyberg, J.; Robertson, C.E.; Baron-Cohen, S.

2015-01-01

Background The dynamics of binocular rivalry may be a behavioural footprint of excitatory and inhibitory neural transmission in visual cortex. Given the presence of atypical visual features in Autism Spectrum Conditions (ASC), and evidence in support of the idea of an imbalance in excitatory/inhibitory neural transmission in ASC, we hypothesized that binocular rivalry might prove a simple behavioural marker of such a transmission imbalance in the autistic brain. In support of this hypothesis, we previously reported a slower rate of rivalry in ASC, driven by reduced perceptual exclusivity. Methods We tested whether atypical dynamics of binocular rivalry in ASC are specific to certain stimulus features. 53 participants (26 with ASC, matched for age, sex and IQ) participated in binocular rivalry experiments in which the dynamics of rivalry were measured at two levels of stimulus complexity, low (grayscale gratings) and high (coloured objects). Results Individuals with ASC experienced a slower rate of rivalry, driven by longer transitional states between dominant percepts. These exaggerated transitional states were present at both low and high levels of stimulus complexity, suggesting that atypical rivalry dynamics in autism are robust with respect to stimulus choice. Interactions between stimulus properties and rivalry dynamics in autism indicate that achromatic grating stimuli produce stronger group differences. Conclusion These results confirm the finding of atypical dynamics of binocular rivalry in ASC. These dynamics were present for stimuli of both low and high levels of visual complexity, suggesting an imbalance in competitive interactions throughout the visual system of individuals with ASC. PMID:26382002

Vibration Propagation of Gear Dynamics in a Gear-Bearing-Housing System Using Mathematical Modeling and Finite Element Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parker, Robert G.; Guo, Yi; Eritenel, Tugan; Ericson, Tristan M.

2012-01-01

Vibration and noise caused by gear dynamics at the meshing teeth propagate through power transmission components to the surrounding environment. This study is devoted to developing computational tools to investigate the vibro-acoustic propagation of gear dynamics through a gearbox using different bearings. Detailed finite element/contact mechanics and boundary element models of the gear/bearing/housing system are established to compute the system vibration and noise propagation. Both vibration and acoustic models are validated by experiments including the vibration modal testing and sound field measurements. The effectiveness of each bearing type to disrupt vibration propagation is speed-dependent. Housing plays an important role in noise radiation .It, however, has limited effects on gear dynamics. Bearings are critical components in drivetrains. Accurate modeling of rolling element bearings is essential to assess vibration and noise of drivetrain systems. This study also seeks to fully describe the vibro-acoustic propagation of gear dynamics through a power-transmission system using rolling element and fluid film wave bearings. Fluid film wave bearings, which have higher damping than rolling element bearings, could offer an energy dissipation mechanism that reduces the gearbox noise. The effectiveness of each bearing type to disrupt vibration propagation in explored using multi-body computational models. These models include gears, shafts, rolling element and fluid film wave bearings, and the housing. Radiated noise is mapped from the gearbox surface to surrounding environment. The effectiveness of rolling element and fluid film wave bearings in breaking the vibro-acoustic propagation path from the gear to the housing is investigated.

Climate and Population Immunity in Malaria Dynamics: Harnessing Information from Endemicity Gradients.

PubMed

Pascual, Mercedes

2015-11-01

It is clear that climate variability and climate change influence malaria in low transmission regions. Much less understood is how climate forcing interacts with population immunity as one moves towards higher transmission intensity. The same transmission model confronted to time series data from two contrasting intensities helps unravel this interaction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Transmission of linear regression patterns between time series: From relationship in time series to complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Xiangyun; An, Haizhong; Fang, Wei; Huang, Xuan; Li, Huajiao; Zhong, Weiqiong; Ding, Yinghui

2014-07-01

The linear regression parameters between two time series can be different under different lengths of observation period. If we study the whole period by the sliding window of a short period, the change of the linear regression parameters is a process of dynamic transmission over time. We tackle fundamental research that presents a simple and efficient computational scheme: a linear regression patterns transmission algorithm, which transforms linear regression patterns into directed and weighted networks. The linear regression patterns (nodes) are defined by the combination of intervals of the linear regression parameters and the results of the significance testing under different sizes of the sliding window. The transmissions between adjacent patterns are defined as edges, and the weights of the edges are the frequency of the transmissions. The major patterns, the distance, and the medium in the process of the transmission can be captured. The statistical results of weighted out-degree and betweenness centrality are mapped on timelines, which shows the features of the distribution of the results. Many measurements in different areas that involve two related time series variables could take advantage of this algorithm to characterize the dynamic relationships between the time series from a new perspective.

Transmission of linear regression patterns between time series: from relationship in time series to complex networks.

PubMed

Gao, Xiangyun; An, Haizhong; Fang, Wei; Huang, Xuan; Li, Huajiao; Zhong, Weiqiong; Ding, Yinghui

2014-07-01

The linear regression parameters between two time series can be different under different lengths of observation period. If we study the whole period by the sliding window of a short period, the change of the linear regression parameters is a process of dynamic transmission over time. We tackle fundamental research that presents a simple and efficient computational scheme: a linear regression patterns transmission algorithm, which transforms linear regression patterns into directed and weighted networks. The linear regression patterns (nodes) are defined by the combination of intervals of the linear regression parameters and the results of the significance testing under different sizes of the sliding window. The transmissions between adjacent patterns are defined as edges, and the weights of the edges are the frequency of the transmissions. The major patterns, the distance, and the medium in the process of the transmission can be captured. The statistical results of weighted out-degree and betweenness centrality are mapped on timelines, which shows the features of the distribution of the results. Many measurements in different areas that involve two related time series variables could take advantage of this algorithm to characterize the dynamic relationships between the time series from a new perspective.

An evolution strategy for lunar nuclear surface power

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mason, Lee S.

1992-01-01

The production and transmission of electric power for a permanently inhabited lunar base poses a significant challenge which can best be met through an evolution strategy. Nuclear systems offer the best opportunity for evolution in terms of both life and performance. Applicable nuclear power technology options include isotope systems (either radioisotope thermoelectric generators or dynamic isotope power systems) and reactor systems with either static (thermoelectric or thermionic) or dynamic (Brayton, Stirling, Rankine) conversion. A power system integration approach that takes evolution into account would benefit by reduced development and operations cost, progressive flight experience, and simplified logistics, and would permit unrestrained base expansion. For the purposes of defining a nuclear power system evolution strategy, the lunar base development shall consist of four phases: precursor, emplacement, consolidation, and operations.

Analytical and experimental vibration analysis of a faulty gear system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choy, F. K.; Braun, M. J.; Polyshchuk, V.; Zakrajsek, J. J.; Townsend, D. P.; Handschuh, R. F.

1994-10-01

A comprehensive analytical procedure was developed for predicting faults in gear transmission systems under normal operating conditions. A gear tooth fault model is developed to simulate the effects of pitting and wear on the vibration signal under normal operating conditions. The model uses changes in the gear mesh stiffness to simulate the effects of gear tooth faults. The overall dynamics of the gear transmission system is evaluated by coupling the dynamics of each individual gear-rotor system through gear mesh forces generated between each gear-rotor system and the bearing forces generated between the rotor and the gearbox structures. The predicted results were compared with experimental results obtained from a spiral bevel gear fatigue test rig at NASA Lewis Research Center. The Wigner-Ville Distribution (WVD) was used to give a comprehensive comparison of the predicted and experimental results. The WVD method applied to the experimental results were also compared to other fault detection techniques to verify the WVD's ability to detect the pitting damage, and to determine its relative performance. Overall results show good correlation between the experimental vibration data of the damaged test gear and the predicted vibration from the model with simulated gear tooth pitting damage. Results also verified that the WVD method can successfully detect and locate gear tooth wear and pitting damage.

Analytical and experimental vibration analysis of a faulty gear system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choy, F. K.; Braun, M. J.; Polyshchuk, V.; Zakrajsek, J. J.; Townsend, D. P.; Handschuh, R. F.

1994-10-01

A comprehensive analytical procedure was developed for predicting faults in gear transmission systems under normal operating conditions. A gear tooth fault model is developed to simulate the effects of pitting and wear on the vibration signal under normal operating conditions. The model uses changes in the gear mesh stiffness to simulate the effects of gear tooth faults. The overall dynamics of the gear transmission system is evaluated by coupling the dynamics of each individual gear-rotor system through gear mesh forces generated between each gear-rotor system and the bearing forces generated between the rotor and the gearbox structure. The predicted results were compared with experimental results obtained from a spiral bevel gear fatigue test rig at NASA Lewis Research Center. The Wigner-Ville distribution (WVD) was used to give a comprehensive comparison of the predicted and experimental results. The WVD method applied to the experimental results were also compared to other fault detection techniques to verify the WVD's ability to detect the pitting damage, and to determine its relative performance. Overall results show good correlation between the experimental vibration data of the damaged test gear and the predicted vibration from the model with simulated gear tooth pitting damage. Results also verified that the WVD method can successfully detect and locate gear tooth wear and pitting damage.

Advanced semi-active engine and transmission mounts: tools for modelling, analysis, design, and tuning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farjoud, Alireza; Taylor, Russell; Schumann, Eric; Schlangen, Timothy

2014-02-01

This paper is focused on modelling, design, and testing of semi-active magneto-rheological (MR) engine and transmission mounts used in the automotive industry. The purpose is to develop a complete analysis, synthesis, design, and tuning tool that reduces the need for expensive and time-consuming laboratory and field tests. A detailed mathematical model of such devices is developed using multi-physics modelling techniques for physical systems with various energy domains. The model includes all major features of an MR mount including fluid dynamics, fluid track, elastic components, decoupler, rate-dip, gas-charged chamber, MR fluid rheology, magnetic circuit, electronic driver, and control algorithm. Conventional passive hydraulic mounts can also be studied using the same mathematical model. The model is validated using standard experimental procedures. It is used for design and parametric study of mounts; effects of various geometric and material parameters on dynamic response of mounts can be studied. Additionally, this model can be used to test various control strategies to obtain best vibration isolation performance by tuning control parameters. Another benefit of this work is that nonlinear interactions between sub-components of the mount can be observed and investigated. This is not possible by using simplified linear models currently available.

Analytical and Experimental Vibration Analysis of a Faulty Gear System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choy, F. K.; Braun, M. J.; Polyshchuk, V.; Zakrajsek, J. J.; Townsend, D. P.; Handschuh, R. F.

1994-01-01

A comprehensive analytical procedure was developed for predicting faults in gear transmission systems under normal operating conditions. A gear tooth fault model is developed to simulate the effects of pitting and wear on the vibration signal under normal operating conditions. The model uses changes in the gear mesh stiffness to simulate the effects of gear tooth faults. The overall dynamics of the gear transmission system is evaluated by coupling the dynamics of each individual gear-rotor system through gear mesh forces generated between each gear-rotor system and the bearing forces generated between the rotor and the gearbox structure. The predicted results were compared with experimental results obtained from a spiral bevel gear fatigue test rig at NASA Lewis Research Center. The Wigner-Ville distribution (WVD) was used to give a comprehensive comparison of the predicted and experimental results. The WVD method applied to the experimental results were also compared to other fault detection techniques to verify the WVD's ability to detect the pitting damage, and to determine its relative performance. Overall results show good correlation between the experimental vibration data of the damaged test gear and the predicted vibration from the model with simulated gear tooth pitting damage. Results also verified that the WVD method can successfully detect and locate gear tooth wear and pitting damage.

Modeling seasonal behavior changes and disease transmission with application to chronic wasting disease.

PubMed

Oraby, Tamer; Vasilyeva, Olga; Krewski, Daniel; Lutscher, Frithjof

2014-01-07

Behavior and habitat of wildlife animals change seasonally according to environmental conditions. Mathematical models need to represent this seasonality to be able to make realistic predictions about the future of a population and the effectiveness of human interventions. Managing and modeling disease in wild animal populations requires particular care in that disease transmission dynamics is a critical consideration in the etiology of both human and animal diseases, with different transmission paradigms requiring different disease risk management strategies. Since transmission of infectious diseases among wildlife depends strongly on social behavior, mechanisms of disease transmission could also change seasonally. A specific consideration in this regard confronted by modellers is whether the contact rate between individuals is density-dependent or frequency-dependent. We argue that seasonal behavior changes could lead to a seasonal shift between density and frequency dependence. This hypothesis is explored in the case of chronic wasting disease (CWD), a fatal disease that affects deer, elk and moose in many areas of North America. Specifically, we introduce a strategic CWD risk model based on direct disease transmission that accounts for the seasonal change in the transmission dynamics and habitats occupied, guided by information derived from cervid ecology. The model is composed of summer and winter susceptible-infected (SI) equations, with frequency-dependent and density-dependent transmission dynamics, respectively. The model includes impulsive birth events with density-dependent birth rate. We determine the basic reproduction number as a weighted average of two seasonal reproduction numbers. We parameterize the model from data derived from the scientific literature on CWD and deer ecology, and conduct global and local sensitivity analyses of the basic reproduction number. We explore the effectiveness of different culling strategies for the management of CWD: although summer culling seems to be an effective disease eradication strategy, the total culling rate is limited by the requirement to preserve the herd. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Characterizing measles transmission in India: a dynamic modeling study using verbal autopsy data.

PubMed

Verguet, Stéphane; Jones, Edward O; Johri, Mira; Morris, Shaun K; Suraweera, Wilson; Gauvreau, Cindy L; Jha, Prabhat; Jit, Mark

2017-08-10

Decreasing trends in measles mortality have been reported in recent years. However, such estimates of measles mortality have depended heavily on assumed regional measles case fatality risks (CFRs) and made little use of mortality data from low- and middle-income countries in general and India, the country with the highest measles burden globally, in particular. We constructed a dynamic model of measles transmission in India with parameters that were empirically inferred using spectral analysis from a time series of measles mortality extracted from the Million Death Study, an ongoing longitudinal study recording deaths across 2.4 million Indian households and attributing causes of death using verbal autopsy. The model was then used to estimate the measles CFR, the number of measles deaths, and the impact of vaccination in 2000-2015 among under-five children in India and in the states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh (UP), two states with large populations and the highest numbers of measles deaths in India. We obtained the following estimated CFRs among under-five children for the year 2005: 0.63% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.40-1.00%) for India as a whole, 0.62% (0.38-1.00%) for Bihar, and 1.19% (0.80-1.75%) for UP. During 2000-2015, we estimated that 607,000 (95% CI: 383,000-958,000) under-five deaths attributed to measles occurred in India as a whole. If no routine vaccination or supplemental immunization activities had occurred from 2000 to 2015, an additional 1.6 (1.0-2.6) million deaths for under-five children would have occurred across India. We developed a data- and model-driven estimation of the historical measles dynamics, CFR, and vaccination impact in India, extracting the periodicity of epidemics using spectral and coherence analysis, which allowed us to infer key parameters driving measles transmission dynamics and mortality.

Multi-Speed Transmission For Commercial Delivery Medium Duty PEDVs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chavdar, Bulent

Successful completion of the proposed project will set a course for improving quality of life by overcoming key challenges in the gearbox for commercial-delivery, medium-duty, plug-in electric drive vehicles: It will reduce US dependency on foreign oil through the use of electric driven propulsion instead of fuel driven. It will reduce health risks by replacing tailpipe emissions in densely populated city centers. Finally, it will improve the performance-cost basis to meet or exceed the expectations of the targeted medium duty vehicle fleet owners and the independent customers. The proposed multi-speed transmission will narrow motor operation to the peak efficiency region,more » thereby increasing the electric powertrain efficiency to help close the range gap. Further, it will enhance customer satisfaction by improving vehicle acceleration, top speed and gradeability over the baseline. The project was conducted in three budget periods: In BP1: Technology Development, High-level vehicle powertrain models were used to optimize candidate transmission architectures and ratios along with a variety of traction motor characteristics for concept selection. The detailed driveline designs and component dynamics were investigated to meet medium-duty EV requirements; In BP2: Technology Development and Prototype Demonstration, The modeling and simulations with multi-speed transmissions were extended to other MD and HD EV platforms. Clean sheet design of a compact, lightweight, flexible, and modular, four-speed transmission was completed. Development of novel shifting and controls strategies were started and procurement of the prototype transmission and the controller hardware was begun; In BP3: Technology Integration, Testing, and Demonstration, Prototyping the four-speed automated mechanical transmission was completed. The transmission controls system and software development and preliminary gearbox dyno tests were done at Eaton. ORNL conducted integrated powertrain HIL tests. One of the prototype units was fully integrated into a Proterra BE35 demonstration electric bus. The shift control strategy was fine-tuned on the integrated vehicle at Eaton Marshall Proving Grounds. NREL tested the vehicle and validated the performance gains. Simulations predicted up to 20% increase in system energy efficiency depending on drive cycles, a top speed of greater than70 mph on flat road, 40% faster acceleration and a doubled gradeability with four-speed transmission as compared to the baseline EVs. Chassis Dyno Tests at NREL verified the simulation results of Eaton team and the HIL test results of ORNL team. The new four-speed EV transmission is efficient, reliable, modular, scalable, light weight, small size, and will be affordable. Furthermore, four-speed transmission enables downsizing of motor, battery and final drive, thereby reducing the total system cost.« less

Strategies for halting the rise of multidrug resistant TB epidemics: assessing the effect of early case detection and isolation.

PubMed

Espindola, Aquino L; Varughese, Marie; Laskowski, Marek; Shoukat, Affan; Heffernan, Jane M; Moghadas, Seyed M

2017-03-01

The increasing rates of multidrug resistant TB (MDR-TB) have posed the question of whether control programs under enhanced directly observed treatment, short-course (DOTS-Plus) are sufficient or implemented optimally. Despite enhanced efforts on early case detection and improved treatment regimens, direct transmission of MDR-TB remains a major hurdle for global TB control. We developed an agent-based simulation model of TB dynamics to evaluate the effect of transmission reduction measures on the incidence of MDR-TB. We implemented a 15-day isolation period following the start of treatment in active TB cases. The model was parameterized with the latest estimates derived from the published literature. We found that if high rates (over 90%) of TB case identification are achieved within 4 weeks of developing active TB, then a 15-day patient isolation strategy with 50% effectiveness in interrupting disease transmission leads to 10% reduction in the incidence of MDR-TB over 10 years. If transmission is fully prevented, the rise of MDR-TB can be halted within 10 years, but the temporal reduction of MDR-TB incidence remains below 20% in this period. The impact of transmission reduction measures on the TB incidence depends critically on the rates and timelines of case identification. The high costs and adverse effects associated with MDR-TB treatment warrant increased efforts and investments on measures that can interrupt direct transmission through early case detection. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The impact of within-herd genetic variation upon inferred transmission trees for foot-and-mouth disease virus.

PubMed

Valdazo-González, Begoña; Kim, Jan T; Soubeyrand, Samuel; Wadsworth, Jemma; Knowles, Nick J; Haydon, Daniel T; King, Donald P

2015-06-01

Full-genome sequences have been used to monitor the fine-scale dynamics of epidemics caused by RNA viruses. However, the ability of this approach to confidently reconstruct transmission trees is limited by the knowledge of the genetic diversity of viruses that exist within different epidemiological units. In order to address this question, this study investigated the variability of 45 foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) genome sequences (from 33 animals) that were collected during 2007 from eight premises (10 different herds) in the United Kingdom. Bayesian and statistical parsimony analysis demonstrated that these sequences exhibited clustering which was consistent with a transmission scenario describing herd-to-herd spread of the virus. As an alternative to analysing all of the available samples in future epidemics, the impact of randomly selecting one sequence from each of these herds was used to assess cost-effective methods that might be used to infer transmission trees during FMD outbreaks. Using these approaches, 85% and 91% of the resulting topologies were either identical or differed by only one edge from a reference tree comprising all of the sequences generated within the outbreak. The sequence distances that accrued during sequential transmission events between epidemiological units was estimated to be 4.6 nucleotides, although the genetic variability between viruses recovered from chronic carrier animals was higher than between viruses from animals with acute-stage infection: an observation which poses challenges for the use of simple approaches to infer transmission trees. This study helps to develop strategies for sampling during FMD outbreaks, and provides data that will guide the development of further models to support control policies in the event of virus incursions into FMD free countries. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dynamic microscopy of nanoscale cluster growth at the solid-liquid interface.

PubMed

Williamson, M J; Tromp, R M; Vereecken, P M; Hull, R; Ross, F M

2003-08-01

Dynamic processes at the solid-liquid interface are of key importance across broad areas of science and technology. Electrochemical deposition of copper, for example, is used for metallization in integrated circuits, and a detailed understanding of nucleation, growth and coalescence is essential in optimizing the final microstructure. Our understanding of processes at the solid-vapour interface has advanced tremendously over the past decade due to the routine availability of real-time, high-resolution imaging techniques yielding data that can be compared quantitatively with theory. However, the difficulty of studying the solid-liquid interface leaves our understanding of processes there less complete. Here we analyse dynamic observations--recorded in situ using a novel transmission electron microscopy technique--of the nucleation and growth of nanoscale copper clusters during electrodeposition. We follow in real time the evolution of individual clusters, and compare their development with simulations incorporating the basic physics of electrodeposition during the early stages of growth. The experimental technique developed here is applicable to a broad range of dynamic phenomena at the solid-liquid interface.

DPSK-3ASK transmission optimization by adapting modulation levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eiselt, Michael H.; Teipen, Brian T.

2008-11-01

For metro and regional 100-Gbps transmission, a transparent channel reach of 500-600 km is required and a 100-GHz channel grid is typically used. For these applications, a cost effective modulation format is introduced which can make use of electronic components designed for the already established 40-Gbps market, bypassing the requirements for novel electronic developments and therefore reducing the component cost. With this DPSK-3ASK modulation format, five information bits are transmitted in two consecutive symbols, leading to a symbol rate of 45 Gbaud, including overhead for framing and FEC. To minimize hardware requirements and to create a cost-effective solution, a single Mach-Zehnder modulator can be used to create the optical DPSK-3ASK signal after combining the phase and amplitude modulation signals into a 6-level modulator drive voltage. In this paper, it is demonstrated by numerical simulations that these voltage levels can be modified to adapt to varying signal distortions and thereby yield improved transmission performance. It is shown that by dynamically modifying the modulation levels based on the channel performance, dynamic signal impairments such as the non-linear effects from varying power levels, changes in chromatic dispersion, or varying PMD levels can be mitigated. Error-free performance (with FEC) can be obtained with 24 dB OSNR and 7ps DGD for a 112-Gbps (45-Gbaud) optical signal.

Adult vector control, mosquito ecology and malaria transmission

PubMed Central

Brady, Oliver J.; Godfray, H. Charles J.; Tatem, Andrew J.; Gething, Peter W.; Cohen, Justin M.; McKenzie, F. Ellis; Alex Perkins, T.; Reiner, Robert C.; Tusting, Lucy S.; Scott, Thomas W.; Lindsay, Steven W.; Hay, Simon I.; Smith, David L.

2015-01-01

Background Standard advice regarding vector control is to prefer interventions that reduce the lifespan of adult mosquitoes. The basis for this advice is a decades-old sensitivity analysis of ‘vectorial capacity’, a concept relevant for most malaria transmission models and based solely on adult mosquito population dynamics. Recent advances in micro-simulation models offer an opportunity to expand the theory of vectorial capacity to include both adult and juvenile mosquito stages in the model. Methods In this study we revisit arguments about transmission and its sensitivity to mosquito bionomic parameters using an elasticity analysis of developed formulations of vectorial capacity. Results We show that reducing adult survival has effects on both adult and juvenile population size, which are significant for transmission and not accounted for in traditional formulations of vectorial capacity. The elasticity of these effects is dependent on various mosquito population parameters, which we explore. Overall, control is most sensitive to methods that affect adult mosquito mortality rates, followed by blood feeding frequency, human blood feeding habit, and lastly, to adult mosquito population density. Conclusions These results emphasise more strongly than ever the sensitivity of transmission to adult mosquito mortality, but also suggest the high potential of combinations of interventions including larval source management. This must be done with caution, however, as policy requires a more careful consideration of costs, operational difficulties and policy goals in relation to baseline transmission. PMID:25733562

Thermomechanical Response of Shape Memory Alloy Hybrid Composites. Degree awarded by Virginia Polytechnic Inst. and State Univ., Blackburg, Virginia, Nov. 2000.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turner, Travis L.

2001-01-01

This study examines the use of embedded shape memory alloy (SMA) actuators for adaptive control of the thermomechanical response of composite structures. A nonlinear thermomechanical model is presented for analyzing shape memory alloy hybrid composite (SMAHC) structures exposed to steady-state thermal and dynamic mechanical loads. Also presented are (1) fabrication procedures for SMAHC specimens, (2) characterization of the constituent materials for model quantification, (3) development of the test apparatus for conducting static and dynamic experiments on specimens with and without SMA, (4) discussion of the experimental results, and (5) validation of the analytical and numerical tools developed in the study. Excellent agreement is achieved between the predicted and measured SAMHC responses including thermal buckling, thermal post-buckling and dynamic response due to inertial loading. The validated model and thermomechanical analysis tools are used to demonstrate a variety of static and dynamic response behaviors including control of static (thermal buckling and post-buckling) and dynamic responses (vibration, sonic fatigue, and acoustic transmission). and SMAHC design considerations for these applications. SMAHCs are shown to have significant advantages over conventional response abatement approaches for vibration, sonic fatigue, and noise control.

Pulse Phase Dynamic Thermal Tomography Investigation on the Defects of the Solid-Propellant Missile Engine Cladding Layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Wei; Wang, Fei; Liu, Jun-yan; Xiao, Peng; Wang, Yang; Dai, Jing-min

2018-04-01

Pulse phase dynamic thermal tomography (PP-DTT) was introduced as a nondestructive inspection technique to detect the defects of the solid-propellant missile engine cladding layer. One-dimensional thermal wave mathematical model stimulated by pulse signal was developed and employed to investigate the thermal wave transmission characteristics. The pulse phase algorithm was used to extract the thermal wave characteristic of thermal radiation. Depth calibration curve was obtained by fuzzy c-means algorithm. Moreover, PP-DTT, a depth-resolved photothermal imaging modality, was employed to enable three-dimensional (3D) visualization of cladding layer defects. The comparison experiment between PP-DTT and classical dynamic thermal tomography was investigated. The results showed that PP-DTT can reconstruct the 3D topography of defects in a high quality.

Active magnetic damper in a power transmission system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kozanecka, D.; Kozanecki, Z.; Łagodziński, J.

2011-05-01

In rotor dynamics, the bearing characteristics exerts a decisive influence on dynamics of the rotating shaft. The research and application experience have led to active magnetic bearings (AMBs), which allow for unique applications in rotating systems. The paper presents the investigations concerning optimization of the magnetic bearing construction. An active magnetic bearing operates as a radial, auxiliary damper, which cooperates with the long, flexible shaft line (aircraft industry applications) and modifies its dynamic properties. In the developed concept of AMBs for aviation purposes, a necessity of increasing its bearing load capacity and damping has occurred. The second important criterion is a weight reduction. This advanced problem leads to specific requirements on the design and materials for the AMB. To achieve these goals, some simulations have been performed. The experimental results are presented as well.

The static structure and dynamics of cadmium sulfide nanoparticles within poly(styrene- block-isoprene) diblock copolymer melts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jang, Woo -Sik; Koo, Peter; Bryson, Kyle

Here, the static structure and dynamic behavior of cadmium sulfide nanoparticles suspended in block copolymer matrix are investigated using transmission electron microscopy, small-angle X-ray scattering, and X-ray photon correlation spectroscopy. The transmission electron micro- scopy study shows that cadmium sulfide nanoparticles are preferentially segregated within the polyisoprene domain of a poly(styrene- block-isoprene) diblock copolymer. For the dynamics study, X-ray photon correlation spectroscopy captures the relaxation process of cadmium sulfide nanoparticles. The measured characteristic relaxation time reveals that the observed dynamics are hyperdiffusive. The characteristic velocity and corresponding activation energy, which are hallmarks of a hyperdiffusive system, are determined from themore » relationship between the characteristic relaxation time and the wavevector.« less

The static structure and dynamics of cadmium sulfide nanoparticles within poly(styrene- block-isoprene) diblock copolymer melts

DOE PAGES

Jang, Woo -Sik; Koo, Peter; Bryson, Kyle; ...

2015-12-20

Here, the static structure and dynamic behavior of cadmium sulfide nanoparticles suspended in block copolymer matrix are investigated using transmission electron microscopy, small-angle X-ray scattering, and X-ray photon correlation spectroscopy. The transmission electron micro- scopy study shows that cadmium sulfide nanoparticles are preferentially segregated within the polyisoprene domain of a poly(styrene- block-isoprene) diblock copolymer. For the dynamics study, X-ray photon correlation spectroscopy captures the relaxation process of cadmium sulfide nanoparticles. The measured characteristic relaxation time reveals that the observed dynamics are hyperdiffusive. The characteristic velocity and corresponding activation energy, which are hallmarks of a hyperdiffusive system, are determined from themore » relationship between the characteristic relaxation time and the wavevector.« less

Dynamic Analysis of Spur Gear Transmissions (DANST). PC Version 3.00 User Manual

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oswald, Fred B.; Lin, Hsiang Hsi; Delgado, Irebert R.

1996-01-01

DANST is a FORTRAN computer program for static and dynamic analysis of spur gear systems. The program can be used for parametric studies to predict the static transmission error, dynamic load, tooth bending stress and other properties of spur gears as they are influenced by operating speed, torque, stiffness, damping, inertia, and tooth profile. DANST performs geometric modeling and dynamic analysis for low- or high-contact-ratio spur gears. DANST can simulate gear systems with contact ratios ranging from one to three. It was designed to be easy to use and it is extensively documented in several previous reports and by comments in the source code. This report describes installing and using a new PC version of DANST, covers input data requirements and presents examples.

Simulated Transmission of the Dengue Virus Across the US-Mexico Border Using Remotely Sensed and Ground Based Weather Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morin, Cory; Quattrochi, Dale A.

2015-01-01

Incidence of dengue fever, caused by a mosquito transmitted virus, have increased in the Americas during recent decades. In the US, local transmission has been reported in southern Texas and Florida. However, despite its close proximity to dengue endemic areas in Mexico and the presence of a primary mosquito vector, there are no reports of local transmission in Arizona. Many studies have demonstrated that weather influences dengue virus transmission by regulating vector development rates, vector habitat availability, and the duration of the virus extrinsic incubation period (EIP). The EIP, the period between mosquito infection and the ability for it to retransmit the virus, is especially important given its high sensitivity to temperature and the short lifespan of mosquitoes. Other studies, however, have suggested that human related factors such as socioeconomic status and herd immunity may explain much of the disparity in dengue incidence in the US-Mexico border region. Using a meteorologically driven model of vector population dynamics and virus transmission we compare simulations of dengue fever cases in southern Arizona and northern Mexico. A Monte Carlo approach is employed to select parameter values by evaluating simulations in Hermosillo Mexico with reported dengue fever case data. Simulations that replicate the case data best are retained and rerun using remotely sensed climate data from other Arizona and Mexico locations to determine the relative influence of weather on virus transmission. Although human and environmental factors undoubtedly influence dengue transmission in the US-Mexico border regions, weather is a major facilitator of the transmission process.

The Reduction of Measles Transmission During School Vacations.

PubMed

Klinkenberg, Don; Hahné, Susan J M; Woudenberg, Tom; Wallinga, Jacco

2018-07-01

Historically, measles incidence has shown clear seasonal patterns driven by the school calendar, but since the start of mass vaccination in developed countries there are only occasional outbreaks, which may have changed the effect of school vacations on transmission. In 2013-2014, a large measles epidemic took place in a low vaccination coverage area in The Netherlands, allowing us to quantify current-day measles transmission and the effect of school vacations. We fitted a dynamic transmission model to notification and hospitalization time series data of the Dutch 2013-2014 measles epidemic. Our primary aim was to estimate the reduction in contact rate during school vacations and the number of cases averted due to the vacation. In addition, because the summer vacations were time-staggered in three regions, we could distinguish within-region from across-region effects of school vacations. We estimated a 53% (95% credible interval: 45%, 60%) reduction in contact rate during school vacations, resulting in 4900 (3400-7100) averted cases (estimated outbreak size: 16,600 [12,600-23,200]). There was a shift from mainly local transmission during school term to mainly cross-regional transmission during vacations. With seroprevalence data, we derived a current-day estimate of 15 to 27 for R0 (number of secondary cases per primary case in a susceptible population). School vacations are associated with greatly reduced overall measles transmission. However, transmission is not eliminated, and increased long-distance travel may even promote spread to other areas. Therefore, we estimate that school closure is unlikely to prevent measles epidemics unless there are still few cases and the community is well vaccinated.

Effects of gear box vibration and mass imbalance on the dynamics of multi-stage gear transmissions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choy, Fred K.; Tu, Yu K.; Zakrajsek, James J.; Townsend, Dennis P.

1991-01-01

The dynamic behavior of multistage gear transmission system, with the effects of gear-box-induced vibrations and rotor mass-imbalances is analyzed. The model method, using undamped frequencies and planar mode shapes, is used to reduce the degree-of-freedom of the system. The various rotor-bearing stages as well as lateral and torsional vibrations of each individual stage are coupled through localized gear-mesh-tooth interactions. Gear-box vibrations are coupled to the gear stage dynamics through bearing support forces. Transient and steady state dynamics of lateral and torsional vibrations of the geared system are examined in both time and frequency domain. A typical three-staged geared system is used as an example. Effects of mass-imbalance and gear box vibrations on the system dynamic behavior are presented in terms of modal excitation functions for both lateral and torsional vibrations. Operational characteristics and conclusions are drawn from the results presented.

Effects of gear box vibration and mass imbalance on the dynamics of multistage gear transmission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choy, F. K.; Tu, Y. K.; Zakrajsek, J. J.; Townsend, D. P.

1991-01-01

The dynamic behavior of multistage gear transmission system, with the effects of gear-box-induced vibrations and rotor mass-imbalances is analyzed. The model method, using undamped frequencies and planar mode shapes, is used to reduce the degree-of-freedom of the system. The various rotor-bearing stages as well as lateral and torsional vibrations of each individual stage are coupled through localized gear-mesh-tooth interactions. Gear-box vibrations are coupled to the gear stage dynamics through bearing support forces. Transient and steady state dynamics of lateral and torsional vibrations of the geared system are examined in both time and frequency domain. A typical three-staged geared system is used as an example. Effects of mass-imbalance and gear box vibrations on the system dynamic behavior are presented in terms of modal excitation functions for both lateral and torsional vibrations. Operational characteristics and conclusions are drawn from the results presented.

Detectable signals of episodic risk effects on acute HIV transmission: Strategies for analyzing transmission systems using genetic data

PubMed Central

Alam, Shah Jamal; Zhang, Xinyu; Romero-Severson, Ethan Obie; Henry, Christopher; Zhong, Lin; Volz, Erik M.; Brenner, Bluma G.; Koopman, James S.

2013-01-01

Episodic high-risk sexual behavior is common and can have a profound effect on HIV transmission. In a model of HIV transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM), changing the frequency, duration and contact rates of high-risk episodes can take endemic prevalence from zero to 50% and more than double transmissions during acute HIV infection (AHI). Undirected test and treat could be inefficient in the presence of strong episodic risk effects. Partner services approaches that use a variety of control options will be likely to have better effects under these conditions, but the question remains: What data will reveal if a population is experiencing episodic risk effects? HIV sequence data from Montreal reveals genetic clusters whose size distribution stabilizes over time and reflects the size distribution of acute infection outbreaks (AIOs). Surveillance provides complementary behavioral data. In order to use both types of data efficiently, it is essential to examine aspects of models that affect both the episodic risk effects and the shape of transmission trees. As a demonstration, we use a deterministic compartmental model of episodic risk to explore the determinants of the fraction of transmissions during acute HIV infection (AHI) at the endemic equilibrium. We use a corresponding individual-based model to observe AIO size distributions and patterns of transmission within AIO. Episodic risk parameters determining whether AHI transmission trees had longer chains, more clustered transmissions from single individuals, or different mixes of these were explored. Encouragingly for parameter estimation, AIO size distributions reflected the frequency of transmissions from acute infection across divergent parameter sets. Our results show that episodic risk dynamics influence both the size and duration of acute infection outbreaks, thus providing a possible link between genetic cluster size distributions and episodic risk dynamics. PMID:23438430

Improved experimental and diagnostic techniques for dynamic tensile stress–strain measurement with a Kolsky tension bar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, Ying; Loeffler, Colin M.; Nie, Xu; Song, Bo

2018-07-01

Kolsky tension bar experiments were improved for dynamic tensile stress–strain measurements with higher fidelity and minimal uncertainties. The difficulties associated with specimen gripping, relatively short gage section, and geometric discontinuity at the bar ends all compromise the accuracy of the traditional strain measurement method in a Kolsky tension bar experiment. In this study, an improved three-channel splitting-beam laser extensometer technique was developed to directly and independently track the displacement of the incident and transmission bar interfaces. By adopting a dual-channel configuration on the incident bar side, the resolution and measurement range of this laser extensometer were coordinated between the two channels to provide highly precise measurement at both small and large strains under high strain-rate loading condition. On the transmission bar side an amplified channel, similar to that used on the incident bar side, was adopted to measure the transmission bar displacement with high resolution. With this novel design, a maximum resolution of approximately 500 nm can be obtained for the bar displacement measurement, which corresponds to a strain of 0.0079% for a specimen with 6.35 mm gage length. To further improve the accuracy, a pair of lock nuts were used to tighten the tensile specimen to the bars in an effort not only to prevent the specimen from potential pre-torsional deformation and damage during installation, but also to provide better thread engagement between the specimen and the bar ends. As a demonstration of this technique, dynamic tensile stress–strain response of a 304L stainless steel was characterized with high resolution in both elastic and plastic deformations.

Control of a haptic gear shifting assistance device utilizing a magnetorheological clutch

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Young-Min; Choi, Seung-Bok

2014-10-01

This paper proposes a haptic clutch driven gear shifting assistance device that can help when the driver shifts the gear of a transmission system. In order to achieve this goal, a magnetorheological (MR) fluid-based clutch is devised to be capable of the rotary motion of an accelerator pedal to which the MR clutch is integrated. The proposed MR clutch is then manufactured, and its transmission torque is experimentally evaluated according to the magnetic field intensity. The manufactured MR clutch is integrated with the accelerator pedal to transmit a haptic cue signal to the driver. The impending control issue is to cue the driver to shift the gear via the haptic force. Therefore, a gear-shifting decision algorithm is constructed by considering the vehicle engine speed concerned with engine combustion dynamics, vehicle dynamics and driving resistance. Then, the algorithm is integrated with a compensation strategy for attaining the desired haptic force. In this work, the compensator is also developed and implemented through the discrete version of the inverse hysteretic model. The control performances, such as the haptic force tracking responses and fuel consumption, are experimentally evaluated.

Advanced EMT and Phasor-Domain Hybrid Simulation with Simulation Mode Switching Capability for Transmission and Distribution Systems

DOE PAGES

Huang, Qiuhua; Vittal, Vijay

2018-05-09

Conventional electromagnetic transient (EMT) and phasor-domain hybrid simulation approaches presently exist for trans-mission system level studies. Their simulation efficiency is generally constrained by the EMT simulation. With an increasing number of distributed energy resources and non-conventional loads being installed in distribution systems, it is imperative to extend the hybrid simulation application to include distribution systems and integrated transmission and distribution systems. Meanwhile, it is equally important to improve the simulation efficiency as the modeling scope and complexity of the detailed system in the EMT simulation increases. To meet both requirements, this paper introduces an advanced EMT and phasor-domain hybrid simulationmore » approach. This approach has two main features: 1) a comprehensive phasor-domain modeling framework which supports positive-sequence, three-sequence, three-phase and mixed three-sequence/three-phase representations and 2) a robust and flexible simulation mode switching scheme. The developed scheme enables simulation switching from hybrid simulation mode back to pure phasor-domain dynamic simulation mode to achieve significantly improved simulation efficiency. The proposed method has been tested on integrated transmission and distribution systems. In conclusion, the results show that with the developed simulation switching feature, the total computational time is significantly reduced compared to running the hybrid simulation for the whole simulation period, while maintaining good simulation accuracy.« less

Advanced EMT and Phasor-Domain Hybrid Simulation with Simulation Mode Switching Capability for Transmission and Distribution Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, Qiuhua; Vittal, Vijay

Conventional electromagnetic transient (EMT) and phasor-domain hybrid simulation approaches presently exist for trans-mission system level studies. Their simulation efficiency is generally constrained by the EMT simulation. With an increasing number of distributed energy resources and non-conventional loads being installed in distribution systems, it is imperative to extend the hybrid simulation application to include distribution systems and integrated transmission and distribution systems. Meanwhile, it is equally important to improve the simulation efficiency as the modeling scope and complexity of the detailed system in the EMT simulation increases. To meet both requirements, this paper introduces an advanced EMT and phasor-domain hybrid simulationmore » approach. This approach has two main features: 1) a comprehensive phasor-domain modeling framework which supports positive-sequence, three-sequence, three-phase and mixed three-sequence/three-phase representations and 2) a robust and flexible simulation mode switching scheme. The developed scheme enables simulation switching from hybrid simulation mode back to pure phasor-domain dynamic simulation mode to achieve significantly improved simulation efficiency. The proposed method has been tested on integrated transmission and distribution systems. In conclusion, the results show that with the developed simulation switching feature, the total computational time is significantly reduced compared to running the hybrid simulation for the whole simulation period, while maintaining good simulation accuracy.« less

Study on galloping behavior of iced eight bundle conductor transmission lines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Linshu; Yan, Bo; Zhang, Liang; Zhou, Song

2016-02-01

Wind tunnel test was carried out to obtain the aerodynamic coefficients of an eight bundle conductor accreted with crescent-shaped ice. A user-defined cable element with torsional degree of freedom is developed in ABAQUS software to capture the torsional deformation of the iced conductors during galloping. By means of the user-defined cable element, different damping ratios in in-plane, out-of-plane and torsional directions of the conductors can be defined and the aerodynamic forces varying with their motion status can be exerted on the conductors conveniently when ABAQUS is used to simulate galloping of transmission lines. A wind tunnel test to model galloping of an iced eight bundle conductor segment was carried out, and the validity of the numerical simulation method is demonstrated by the agreement of the galloping orbit of the bundle conductor segment model recorded in the test and that by the numerical simulation. Furthermore, galloping behavior, including dynamic responses, galloping orbits, frequencies, vibration modes and amplitudes, of typical iced eight bundle conductor transmission lines in the cases of different span lengths, initial tensions in sub-conductors, wind velocities, angles of wind attack and damping ratios is studied, and the galloping behavior of the lines with internal resonance conditions is discussed. The obtained results may provide a fundamental tool for the development of anti-galloping techniques of eight bundle conductor transmission lines.

Zika Virus: Transmission, Detection, Control, and Prevention

PubMed Central

Sharma, Anshika; Lal, Sunil K.

2017-01-01

Zika virus (ZIKV) is a mosquito-borne Flavivirus discovered in Uganda in the 1940s. To date, three major ZIKV outbreaks have been reported. ZIKV infections have known to be primarily asymptomatic while causing mild illness in a few cases. However, the recent emergence and spread of ZIKV in the Americas has resulted in the declaration of “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” due to the potential association between the infection and prenatal microcephaly or other brain anomalies. In Brazil, a 20-fold increase in prenatal microcephaly cases and 19% increase in Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS) cases were reported in 2015, as compared to the preceding year. The probable deleterious effects of ZIKV infection prompt the urgent development of diagnostics and therapeutics. To this end, the existing evidences supporting the increasingly common prenatal microcephaly and GBS association and the current known ZIKV transmission dynamics, modes of detection (molecular and serology-based), and current control strategies are summarized in this review. This review also emphasizes the importance of understanding ZIKV transmission in order to design a sensitive yet cost and time-efficient detection technique. Development of an efficient detection technique would subsequently allow for better surveillance and control of ZIKV infection. Currently, limited literature is available on the pathogenesis of ZIKV, hence, focusing on the modes of ZIKV transmission could potentially contribute to the understanding of the disease spectrum and formulation of targeted treatment and control. PMID:28217114

Link-state-estimation-based transmission power control in wireless body area networks.

PubMed

Kim, Seungku; Eom, Doo-Seop

2014-07-01

This paper presents a novel transmission power control protocol to extend the lifetime of sensor nodes and to increase the link reliability in wireless body area networks (WBANs). We first experimentally investigate the properties of the link states using the received signal strength indicator (RSSI). We then propose a practical transmission power control protocol based on both short- and long-term link-state estimations. Both the short- and long-term link-state estimations enable the transceiver to adapt the transmission power level and target the RSSI threshold range, respectively, to simultaneously satisfy the requirements of energy efficiency and link reliability. Finally, the performance of the proposed protocol is experimentally evaluated in two experimental scenarios-body posture change and dynamic body motion-and compared with the typical WBAN transmission power control protocols, a real-time reactive scheme, and a dynamic postural position inference mechanism. From the experimental results, it is found that the proposed protocol increases the lifetime of the sensor nodes by a maximum of 9.86% and enhances the link reliability by reducing the packet loss by a maximum of 3.02%.

Badgers prefer cattle pasture but avoid cattle: implications for bovine tuberculosis control.

PubMed

Woodroffe, Rosie; Donnelly, Christl A; Ham, Cally; Jackson, Seth Y B; Moyes, Kelly; Chapman, Kayna; Stratton, Naomi G; Cartwright, Samantha J

2016-10-01

Effective management of infectious disease relies upon understanding mechanisms of pathogen transmission. In particular, while models of disease dynamics usually assume transmission through direct contact, transmission through environmental contamination can cause different dynamics. We used Global Positioning System (GPS) collars and proximity-sensing contact-collars to explore opportunities for transmission of Mycobacterium bovis [causal agent of bovine tuberculosis] between cattle and badgers (Meles meles). Cattle pasture was badgers' most preferred habitat. Nevertheless, although collared cattle spent 2914 collar-nights in the home ranges of contact-collared badgers, and 5380 collar-nights in the home ranges of GPS-collared badgers, we detected no direct contacts between the two species. Simultaneous GPS-tracking revealed that badgers preferred land > 50 m from cattle. Very infrequent direct contact indicates that badger-to-cattle and cattle-to-badger M. bovis transmission may typically occur through contamination of the two species' shared environment. This information should help to inform tuberculosis control by guiding both modelling and farm management. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Understanding materials challenges for rechargeable ion batteries with in situ transmission electron microscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Yifei; Amine, Khalil; Lu, Jun; Shahbazian-Yassar, Reza

2017-08-01

An in-depth understanding of material behaviours under complex electrochemical environment is critical for the development of advanced materials for the next-generation rechargeable ion batteries. The dynamic conditions inside a working battery had not been intensively explored until the advent of various in situ characterization techniques. Real-time transmission electron microscopy of electrochemical reactions is one of the most significant breakthroughs poised to enable radical shift in our knowledge on how materials behave in the electrochemical environment. This review, therefore, summarizes the scientific discoveries enabled by in situ transmission electron microscopy, and specifically emphasizes the applicability of this technique to address the critical challenges in the rechargeable ion battery electrodes, electrolyte and their interfaces. New electrochemical systems such as lithium-oxygen, lithium-sulfur and sodium ion batteries are included, considering the rapidly increasing application of in situ transmission electron microscopy in these areas. A systematic comparison between lithium ion-based electrochemistry and sodium ion-based electrochemistry is also given in terms of their thermodynamic and kinetic differences. The effect of the electron beam on the validity of in situ observation is also covered. This review concludes by providing a renewed perspective for the future directions of in situ transmission electron microscopy in rechargeable ion batteries.

Femtosecond laser ablation of transparent microphotonic devices and computer-generated holograms.

PubMed

Alqurashi, Tawfiq; Montelongo, Yunuen; Penchev, Pavel; Yetisen, Ali K; Dimov, Stefan; Butt, Haider

2017-09-21

Femtosecond laser ablation allows direct patterning of engineering materials in industrial settings without requiring multistage processes such as photolithography or electron beam lithography. However, femtosecond lasers have not been widely used to construct volumetric microphotonic devices and holograms with high reliability and cost efficiency. Here, a direct femtosecond laser writing process is developed to rapidly produce transmission 1D/2D gratings, Fresnel Zone Plate lenses, and computer-generated holograms. The optical properties including light transmission, angle-dependent resolution, and light polarization effects for the microphotonic devices have been characterized. Varying the depth of the microgratings from 400 nm to 1.5 μm allowed the control over their transmission intensity profile. The optical properties of the 1D/2D gratings were validated through a geometrical theory of diffraction model involving 2D phase modulation. The produced Fresnel lenses had transmission efficiency of ∼60% at normal incidence and they preserved the polarization of incident light. The computer-generated holograms had an average transmission efficiency of 35% over the visible spectrum. These microphotonic devices had wettability resistance of contact angle ranging from 44° to 125°. These devices can be used in a variety of applications including wavelength-selective filters, dynamic displays, fiber optics, and biomedical devices.

Understanding materials challenges for rechargeable ion batteries with in situ transmission electron microscopy

PubMed Central

Yuan, Yifei; Amine, Khalil; Lu, Jun; Shahbazian-Yassar, Reza

2017-01-01

An in-depth understanding of material behaviours under complex electrochemical environment is critical for the development of advanced materials for the next-generation rechargeable ion batteries. The dynamic conditions inside a working battery had not been intensively explored until the advent of various in situ characterization techniques. Real-time transmission electron microscopy of electrochemical reactions is one of the most significant breakthroughs poised to enable radical shift in our knowledge on how materials behave in the electrochemical environment. This review, therefore, summarizes the scientific discoveries enabled by in situ transmission electron microscopy, and specifically emphasizes the applicability of this technique to address the critical challenges in the rechargeable ion battery electrodes, electrolyte and their interfaces. New electrochemical systems such as lithium–oxygen, lithium–sulfur and sodium ion batteries are included, considering the rapidly increasing application of in situ transmission electron microscopy in these areas. A systematic comparison between lithium ion-based electrochemistry and sodium ion-based electrochemistry is also given in terms of their thermodynamic and kinetic differences. The effect of the electron beam on the validity of in situ observation is also covered. This review concludes by providing a renewed perspective for the future directions of in situ transmission electron microscopy in rechargeable ion batteries.

Spreading dynamics of forget-remember mechanism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Shengfeng; Li, Wei

2017-04-01

We study extensively the forget-remember mechanism (FRM) for message spreading, originally introduced in Eur. Phys. J. B 62, 247 (2008), 10.1140/epjb/e2008-00139-4. The freedom of specifying forget-remember functions governing the FRM can enrich the spreading dynamics to a very large extent. The master equation is derived for describing the FRM dynamics. By applying the mean field techniques, we have shown how the steady states can be reached under certain conditions, which agrees well with the Monte Carlo simulations. The distributions of forget and remember times can be explicitly given when the forget-remember functions take linear or exponential forms, which might shed some light on understanding the temporal nature of diseases like flu. For time-dependent FRM there is an epidemic threshold related to the FRM parameters. We have proven that the mean field critical transmissibility for the SIS model and the critical transmissibility for the SIR model are the lower and the the upper bounds of the critical transmissibility for the FRM model, respectively.

Stochastic processes constrain the within and between host evolution of influenza virus.

PubMed

McCrone, John T; Woods, Robert J; Martin, Emily T; Malosh, Ryan E; Monto, Arnold S; Lauring, Adam S

2018-05-03

The evolutionary dynamics of influenza virus ultimately derive from processes that take place within and between infected individuals. Here we define influenza virus dynamics in human hosts through sequencing of 249 specimens from 200 individuals collected over 6290 person-seasons of observation. Because these viruses were collected from individuals in a prospective community-based cohort, they are broadly representative of natural infections with seasonal viruses. Consistent with a neutral model of evolution, sequence data from 49 serially sampled individuals illustrated the dynamic turnover of synonymous and nonsynonymous single nucleotide variants and provided little evidence for positive selection of antigenic variants. We also identified 43 genetically-validated transmission pairs in this cohort. Maximum likelihood optimization of multiple transmission models estimated an effective transmission bottleneck of 1-2 genomes. Our data suggest that positive selection is inefficient at the level of the individual host and that stochastic processes dominate the host-level evolution of influenza viruses. © 2018, McCrone et al.

Strain-specific estimation of epidemic success provides insights into the transmission dynamics of tuberculosis

PubMed Central

Rasigade, Jean-Philippe; Barbier, Maxime; Dumitrescu, Oana; Pichat, Catherine; Carret, Gérard; Ronnaux-Baron, Anne-Sophie; Blasquez, Ghislaine; Godin-Benhaim, Christine; Boisset, Sandrine; Carricajo, Anne; Jacomo, Véronique; Fredenucci, Isabelle; Pérouse de Montclos, Michèle; Flandrois, Jean-Pierre; Ader, Florence; Supply, Philip; Lina, Gérard; Wirth, Thierry

2017-01-01

The transmission dynamics of tuberculosis involves complex interactions of socio-economic and, possibly, microbiological factors. We describe an analytical framework to infer factors of epidemic success based on the joint analysis of epidemiological, clinical and pathogen genetic data. We derive isolate-specific, genetic distance-based estimates of epidemic success, and we represent success-related time-dependent concepts, namely epidemicity and endemicity, by restricting analysis to specific time scales. The method is applied to analyze a surveillance-based cohort of 1,641 tuberculosis patients with minisatellite-based isolate genotypes. Known predictors of isolate endemicity (older age, native status) and epidemicity (younger age, sputum smear positivity) were identified with high confidence (P < 0.001). Long-term epidemic success also correlated with the ability of Euro-American and Beijing MTBC lineages to cause active pulmonary infection, independent of patient age and country of origin. Our results demonstrate how important insights into the transmission dynamics of tuberculosis can be gained from active surveillance data. PMID:28349973

Synchronization transmission of laser pattern signal within uncertain switched network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lü, Ling; Li, Chengren; Li, Gang; Sun, Ao; Yan, Zhe; Rong, Tingting; Gao, Yan

2017-06-01

We propose a new technology for synchronization transmission of laser pattern signal within uncertain network with controllable topology. In synchronization process, the connection of dynamic network can vary at all time according to different demands. Especially, we construct the Lyapunov function of network through designing a special semi-positive definite function, and the synchronization transmission of laser pattern signal within uncertain network with controllable topology can be realized perfectly, which effectively avoids the complicated calculation for solving the second largest eignvalue of the coupling matrix of the dynamic network in order to obtain the network synchronization condition. At the same time, the uncertain parameters in dynamic equations belonging to network nodes can also be identified accurately via designing the identification laws of uncertain parameters. In addition, there are not any limitations for the synchronization target of network in the new technology, in other words, the target can either be a state variable signal of an arbitrary node within the network or an exterior signal.

Genomics reveals historic and contemporary transmission dynamics of a bacterial disease among wildlife and livestock

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kamath, Pauline L.; Foster, Jeffrey T.; Drees, Kevin P.; Luikart, Gordon; Quance, Christine; Anderson, Neil J.; Clarke, P. Ryan; Cole, Eric K.; Drew, Mark L.; Edwards, William H.; Rhyan, Jack C.; Treanor, John J.; Wallen, Rick L.; White, Patrick J.; Robbe-Austerman, Suelee; Cross, Paul C.

2016-01-01

Whole-genome sequencing has provided fundamental insights into infectious disease epidemiology, but has rarely been used for examining transmission dynamics of a bacterial pathogen in wildlife. In the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), outbreaks of brucellosis have increased in cattle along with rising seroprevalence in elk. Here we use a genomic approach to examine Brucella abortus evolution, cross-species transmission and spatial spread in the GYE. We find that brucellosis was introduced into wildlife in this region at least five times. The diffusion rate varies among Brucella lineages (B3 to 8 km per year) and over time. We also estimate 12 host transitions from bison to elk, and 5 from elk to bison. Our results support the notion that free-ranging elk are currently a self-sustaining brucellosis reservoir and the source of livestock infections, and that control measures in bison are unlikely to affect the dynamics of unrelated strains circulating in nearby elk populations.

Evaluation of power system security and development of transmission pricing method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Hyungchul

The electric power utility industry is presently undergoing a change towards the deregulated environment. This has resulted in unbundling of generation, transmission and distribution services. The introduction of competition into unbundled electricity services may lead system operation closer to its security boundaries resulting in smaller operating safety margins. The competitive environment is expected to lead to lower price rates for customers and higher efficiency for power suppliers in the long run. Under this deregulated environment, security assessment and pricing of transmission services have become important issues in power systems. This dissertation provides new methods for power system security assessment and transmission pricing. In power system security assessment, the following issues are discussed (1) The description of probabilistic methods for power system security assessment; (2) The computation time of simulation methods; (3) on-line security assessment for operation. A probabilistic method using Monte-Carlo simulation is proposed for power system security assessment. This method takes into account dynamic and static effects corresponding to contingencies. Two different Kohonen networks, Self-Organizing Maps and Learning Vector Quantization, are employed to speed up the probabilistic method. The combination of Kohonen networks and Monte-Carlo simulation can reduce computation time in comparison with straight Monte-Carlo simulation. A technique for security assessment employing Bayes classifier is also proposed. This method can be useful for system operators to make security decisions during on-line power system operation. This dissertation also suggests an approach for allocating transmission transaction costs based on reliability benefits in transmission services. The proposed method shows the transmission transaction cost of reliability benefits when transmission line capacities are considered. The ratio between allocation by transmission line capacity-use and allocation by reliability benefits is computed using the probability of system failure.

Assessing Disparities of Dengue Virus Transmission Risk across the US-Mexican Border Using a Climate Driven Vector-Epidemiological Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morin, Cory; Monaghan, Andrew; Quattrochi, Dale; Crosson, William; Hayden, Mary; Ernst, Kacey

2015-01-01

Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne viral disease reemerging throughout much of the tropical Americas. Dengue virus transmission is explicitly influenced by climate and the environment through its primary vector, Aedes aegypti. Temperature regulates Ae. aegypti development, survival, and replication rates as well as the incubation period of the virus within the mosquito. Precipitation provides water for many of the preferred breeding habitats of the mosquito, including buckets, old tires, and other places water can collect. Although transmission regularly occurs along the border region in Mexico, dengue virus transmission in bordering Arizona has not occurred. Using NASA's TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite for precipitation input and Daymet for temperature and supplemental precipitation input, we modeled dengue transmission along a US-Mexico transect using a dynamic dengue transmission model that includes interacting vector ecology and epidemiological components. Model runs were performed for 5 cities in Sonora, Mexico and southern Arizona. Employing a Monte Carlo approach, we performed ensembles of several thousands of model simulations in order to resolve the model uncertainty arising from using different combinations of parameter values that are not well known. For cities with reported dengue case data, the top model simulations that best reproduced dengue case numbers were retained and their parameter values were extracted for comparison. These parameter values were used to run simulations in areas where dengue virus transmission does not occur or where dengue fever case data was unavailable. Additional model runs were performed to reveal how changes in climate or parameter values could alter transmission risk along the transect. The relative influence of climate variability and model parameters on dengue virus transmission is assessed to help public health workers prepare location specific infection prevention strategies.

A study of methods to predict and measure the transmission of sound through the walls of light aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bernhard, R. J.; Bolton, J. S.; Gardner, B.; Mickol, J.; Mollo, C.; Bruer, C.

1986-01-01

Progress was made in the following areas: development of a numerical/empirical noise source identification procedure using bondary element techniques; identification of structure-borne noise paths using structural intensity and finite element methods; development of a design optimization numerical procedure to be used to study active noise control in three-dimensional geometries; measurement of dynamic properties of acoustical foams and incorporation of these properties in models governing three-dimensional wave propagation in foams; and structure-borne sound path identification by use of the Wigner distribution.

NDRAM: nonlinear dynamic recurrent associative memory for learning bipolar and nonbipolar correlated patterns.

PubMed

Chartier, Sylvain; Proulx, Robert

2005-11-01

This paper presents a new unsupervised attractor neural network, which, contrary to optimal linear associative memory models, is able to develop nonbipolar attractors as well as bipolar attractors. Moreover, the model is able to develop less spurious attractors and has a better recall performance under random noise than any other Hopfield type neural network. Those performances are obtained by a simple Hebbian/anti-Hebbian online learning rule that directly incorporates feedback from a specific nonlinear transmission rule. Several computer simulations show the model's distinguishing properties.

X-ray transmission microscope development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaukler, William F.; Rosenberger, Franz E.

1995-01-01

We are developing a hard x-ray microscope for direct observation of solidification dynamics in metal alloys and metal matrix composites. The Fein-Focus Inc. x-ray source was delivered in September and found to perform better than expected. Confirmed resolution of better than 2 micrometers was obtained and magnifications up to 800X were measured. Nickel beads of 30 micrometer diameter were easily detected through 6mm of aluminum. X-ray metallography was performed on several specimens showing high resolution and clear definition of 3-dimensional structures. Prototype furnace installed and tested.

Research on optimal investment path of transmission corridor under the global energy Internet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Yuehui; Li, Pai; Wang, Qi; Liu, Jichun; Gao, Han

2018-02-01

Under the background of the global energy Internet, the investment planning of transmission corridor from XinJiang to Germany is studied in this article, which passes through four countries: Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus and Poland. Taking the specific situation of different countries into account, including the length of transmission line, unit construction cost, completion time, transmission price, state tariff, inflation rate and so on, this paper constructed a power transmission investment model. Finally, the dynamic programming method is used to simulate the example, and the optimal strategies under different objective functions are obtained.

BSM (+BMM) Data Emulator Dynamic Interrogative Data Capture (DIDC) Assessment Report: Impacts of DIDC

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-04-01

The objective of the Dynamic Interrogative Data Capture (DIDC) algorithms and software is to optimize the capture and transmission of vehicle-based data under a range of dynamically configurable messaging strategies. The key hypothesis of DIDC is tha...

Well-posed and stable transmission problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nordström, Jan; Linders, Viktor

2018-07-01

We introduce the notion of a transmission problem to describe a general class of problems where different dynamics are coupled in time. Well-posedness and stability are analysed for continuous and discrete problems using both strong and weak formulations, and a general transmission condition is obtained. The theory is applied to the coupling of fluid-acoustic models, multi-grid implementations, adaptive mesh refinements, multi-block formulations and numerical filtering.

Suppressing disease spreading by using information diffusion on multiplex networks.

PubMed

Wang, Wei; Liu, Quan-Hui; Cai, Shi-Min; Tang, Ming; Braunstein, Lidia A; Stanley, H Eugene

2016-07-06

Although there is always an interplay between the dynamics of information diffusion and disease spreading, the empirical research on the systemic coevolution mechanisms connecting these two spreading dynamics is still lacking. Here we investigate the coevolution mechanisms and dynamics between information and disease spreading by utilizing real data and a proposed spreading model on multiplex network. Our empirical analysis finds asymmetrical interactions between the information and disease spreading dynamics. Our results obtained from both the theoretical framework and extensive stochastic numerical simulations suggest that an information outbreak can be triggered in a communication network by its own spreading dynamics or by a disease outbreak on a contact network, but that the disease threshold is not affected by information spreading. Our key finding is that there is an optimal information transmission rate that markedly suppresses the disease spreading. We find that the time evolution of the dynamics in the proposed model qualitatively agrees with the real-world spreading processes at the optimal information transmission rate.

Effect of temperature on the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yusoff, Nuraini; Tokachil, Mohd Najir

2015-10-01

Aedes aegypti is one of the main vectors in the transmission of dengue fever. Its abundance may cause the spread of the disease to be more intense. In the study of its biological life cycle, temperature was found to increase the development rate of each stage of this species and thus, accelerate the process of the development from egg to adult. In this paper, a Lefkovitch matrix model will be used to study the stage-structured population dynamics of Aedes aegypti. In constructing the transition matrix, temperature will be taken into account. As a case study, temperature recorded at the Subang Meteorological Station for year 2006 until 2010 will be used. Population dynamics of Aedes aegypti at maximum, average and minimum temperature for each year will be simulated and compared. It is expected that the higher the temperature, the faster the mosquito will breed. The result will be compared to the number of dengue fever incidences to see their relationship.

Potential for malaria seasonal forecasting in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tompkins, Adrian; Di Giuseppe, Francesca; Colon-Gonzalez, Felipe; Namanya, Didas; Friday, Agabe

2014-05-01

As monthly and seasonal dynamical prediction systems have improved their skill in the tropics over recent years, there is now the potential to use these forecasts to drive dynamical malaria modelling systems to provide early warnings in epidemic and meso-endemic regions. We outline a new pilot operational system that has been developed at ECMWF and ICTP. It uses a precipitation bias correction methodology to seamlessly join the monthly ensemble prediction system (EPS) and seasonal (system 4) forecast systems of ECMWF together. The resulting temperature and rainfall forecasts for Africa are then used to drive the recently developed ICTP malaria model known as VECTRI. The resulting coupled system of ECMWF climate forecasts and VECTRI thus produces predictions of malaria prevalence rates and transmission intensity across Africa. The forecasts are filtered to highlight the regions and months in which the system has particular value due to high year to year variability. In addition to epidemic areas, these also include meso and hyper-endemic regions which undergo considerable variability in the onset months. We demonstrate the limits of the forecast skill as a function of lead-time, showing that for many areas the dynamical system can add one to two months additional warning time to a system based on environmental monitoring. We then evaluate the past forecasts against district level case data in Uganda and show that when interventions can be discounted, the system can show significant skill at predicting interannual variability in transmission intensity up to 3 or 4 months ahead at the district scale. The prospects for a operational implementation will be briefly discussed.

Organization and dynamics of the actin cytoskeleton during dendritic spine morphological remodeling.

PubMed

Chazeau, Anaël; Giannone, Grégory

2016-08-01

In the central nervous system, most excitatory post-synapses are small subcellular structures called dendritic spines. Their structure and morphological remodeling are tightly coupled to changes in synaptic transmission. The F-actin cytoskeleton is the main driving force of dendritic spine remodeling and sustains synaptic plasticity. It is therefore essential to understand how changes in synaptic transmission can regulate the organization and dynamics of actin binding proteins (ABPs). In this review, we will provide a detailed description of the organization and dynamics of F-actin and ABPs in dendritic spines and will discuss the current models explaining how the actin cytoskeleton sustains both structural and functional synaptic plasticity.

A Unified Framework for the Infection Dynamics of Zoonotic Spillover and Spread

PubMed Central

Cunningham, Andrew A.; Fichet-Calvet, Elisabeth; Garry, Robert F.; Grant, Donald S.; Leach, Melissa; Moses, Lina M.; Nichols, Gordon; Schieffelin, John S.; Shaffer, Jeffrey G.; Webb, Colleen T.; Wood, James L. N.

2016-01-01

A considerable amount of disease is transmitted from animals to humans and many of these zoonoses are neglected tropical diseases. As outbreaks of SARS, avian influenza and Ebola have demonstrated, however, zoonotic diseases are serious threats to global public health and are not just problems confined to remote regions. There are two fundamental, and poorly studied, stages of zoonotic disease emergence: ‘spillover’, i.e. transmission of pathogens from animals to humans, and ‘stuttering transmission’, i.e. when limited human-to-human infections occur, leading to self-limiting chains of transmission. We developed a transparent, theoretical framework, based on a generalization of Poisson processes with memory of past human infections, that unifies these stages. Once we have quantified pathogen dynamics in the reservoir, with some knowledge of the mechanism of contact, the approach provides a tool to estimate the likelihood of spillover events. Comparisons with independent agent-based models demonstrates the ability of the framework to correctly estimate the relative contributions of human-to-human vs animal transmission. As an illustrative example, we applied our model to Lassa fever, a rodent-borne, viral haemorrhagic disease common in West Africa, for which data on human outbreaks were available. The approach developed here is general and applicable to a range of zoonoses. This kind of methodology is of crucial importance for the scientific, medical and public health communities working at the interface between animal and human diseases to assess the risk associated with the disease and to plan intervention and appropriate control measures. The Lassa case study revealed important knowledge gaps, and opportunities, arising from limited knowledge of the temporal patterns in reporting, abundance of and infection prevalence in, the host reservoir. PMID:27588425

Simulation of the Impact of Climate Variability on Malaria Transmission in the Sahel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bomblies, A.; Eltahir, E.; Duchemin, J.

2007-12-01

A coupled hydrology and entomology model for simulation of malaria transmission and malaria transmitting mosquito population dynamics is presented. Model development and validation is done using field data and observations collected at Banizoumbou and Zindarou, Niger spanning three wet seasons, from 2005 through 2007. The primary model objective is the accurate determination of climate variability effects on village scale malaria transmission. Malaria transmission dependence on climate variables is highly nonlinear and complex. Temperature and humidity affect mosquito longevity, temperature controls parasite development rates in the mosquito as well as subadult mosquito development rates, and precipitation determines the formation and persistence of adequate breeding pools. Moreover, unsaturated zone hydrology influences overland flow, and climate controlled evapotranspiration rates and root zone uptake therefore also influence breeding pool formation. High resolution distributed hydrologic simulation allows representation of the small-scale ephemeral pools that constitute the primary habitat of Anopheles gambiae mosquitoes, the dominant malaria vectors in the Niger Sahel. Remotely sensed soil type, vegetation type, and microtopography rasters are used to assign the distributed parameter fields for simulation of the land surface hydrologic response to precipitation and runoff generation. Predicted runoff from each cell flows overland and into topographic depressions, with explicit representation of infiltration and evapotranspiration. The model's entomology component interacts with simulated pools. Subadult (aquatic stage) mosquito breeding is simulated in the pools, and water temperature dependent stage advancement rates regulate adult mosquito emergence into the model domain. Once emerged, adult mosquitoes are tracked as independent individual agents that interact with their immediate environment. Attributes relevant to malaria transmission such as gonotrophic state, infected and infectious states, age, and location relative to human population are tracked for each individual. The model operates at a resolution consistent with the characteristic scale of relevant ecological processes. Microhabitat exploitation and spatial structure of the mosquito population surrounding villages is reproduced in this manner. The resulting coupled model predicts not only malaria transmission's response to interannual climate variability, but can also evaluate land use change effects on malaria transmission. The late Professor Andrew Spielman of the Harvard School of Public Health provided medical entomology expertise and was a part of this effort.

The role of adaptations in two-strain competition for sylvatic Trypanosoma cruzi transmission.

PubMed

Kribs-Zaleta, Christopher M; Mubayi, Anuj

2012-01-01

This study presents a continuous-time model for the sylvatic transmission dynamics of two strains of Trypanosoma cruzi enzootic in North America, in order to study the role that adaptations of each strain to distinct modes of transmission (classical stercorarian transmission on the one hand, and vertical and oral transmission on the other) may play in the competition between the two strains. A deterministic model incorporating contact process saturation predicts competitive exclusion, and reproductive numbers for the infection provide a framework for evaluating the competition in terms of adaptive trade-off between distinct transmission modes. Results highlight the importance of oral transmission in mediating the competition between horizontal (stercorarian) and vertical transmission; its presence as a competing contact process advantages vertical transmission even without adaptation to oral transmission, but such adaptation appears necessary to explain the persistence of (vertically-adapted) T. cruzi IV in raccoons and woodrats in the southeastern United States.

Impacts of Climate Change on Malaria Transmission in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eltahir, E. A. B.; Endo, N.; Yamana, T. K.

2017-12-01

Malaria is a major vector-borne parasitic disease transmitted to humans by Anopheles spp mosquitoes. Africa is the hotspot for malaria transmission where more than 90% of malaria deaths occur every year. Malaria transmission is an intricate function of climatic factors, which non-linearly affect the development of vectors and parasites. We project that the risk of malaria will increase towards the end of the 21st century in east Africa, but decrease in west Africa. We combine a novel malaria transmission simulator, HYDREMATS, that has been developed based on comprehensive multi-year field surveys both in East Africa and West Africa, and the most reliable climate projections through regional dynamical downscaling and rigorous selection of GCMs from among CMIP5 models. We define a bell-shaped relation between malaria intensity and temperature, centered around a temperature of 30°C. Future risks of malaria are projected for two highly populated regions in Africa: the highlands in East Africa and the fringes of the desert in West Africa. In the highlands of East Africa, temperature is substantially colder than this optimal temperature; warmer future climate exacerbate malaria conditions. In the Sahel fringes in West Africa, temperature is around this optimal temperature; warming is not likely to exacerbate and might even reduce malaria burden. Unlike the highlands of East Africa, which receive significant amounts of annual rainfall, dry conditions also limit malaria transmission in the Sahel fringes in West Africa. This disproportionate risk of malaria due to climate change should guide strategies for climate adaptation over Africa.

Experimental investigation of complex circular Airy beam characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porfirev, A. P.; Fomchenkov, S. A.; Khonina, S. N.

2018-04-01

We demonstrate a new type of circular Airy beams, the so-called azimuthally modulated circular Airy beams, generated by utilizing a diffraction element, whose transmission function is the sum of the transmission function of the element generating a "petal" pattern and the transmission function of the element generating a circular Airy beam. We experimentally investigate the propagation dynamics of such beams and demonstrate that their autofocusing and selfhealing properties are strongly dependent on the number of generated petals. These beams are a combination of a conventional circular Airy beam and vortex laser beams (or their superpositions). Using a spatial light modulator, we demonstrate that these beams have unique properties such as autofocusing, "nondiffractive" propagation and self-healing after passing through an obstacle. The experimental results are in good agreement with the simulation. We believe that these results can be very useful for lensless laser fabrication and laser manipulation techniques, as well as for development of new filament plasma multi-channel formation methods.

Transmission of Influenza on International Flights, May 2009

PubMed Central

Foxwell, A. Ruth; Roberts, Leslee; Lokuge, Kamalini

2011-01-01

Understanding the dynamics of influenza transmission on international flights is necessary for prioritizing public health response to pandemic incursions. A retrospective cohort study to ascertain in-flight transmission of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 and influenza-like illness (ILI) was undertaken for 2 long-haul flights entering Australia during May 2009. Combined results, including survey responses from 319 (43%) of 738 passengers, showed that 13 (2%) had an ILI in flight and an ILI developed in 32 (5%) passengers during the first week post arrival. Passengers were at 3.6% increased risk of contracting pandemic (H1N1) 2009 if they sat in the same row as or within 2 rows of persons who were symptomatic preflight. A closer exposed zone (2 seats in front, 2 seats behind, and 2 seats either side) increased the risk for postflight disease to 7.7%. Efficiency of contact tracing without compromising the effectiveness of the public health intervention might be improved by limiting the exposed zone. PMID:21762571

Pneumatic Valve Operated by Multiplex Pneumatic Transmission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishioka, Yasutaka; Suzumori, Koichi; Kanda, Takefumi; Wakimoto, Shuichi

A pneumatic system has several advantages, which are cheapness, lightweight, and reliability to human and environment. These advantages are adapted to some research areas, such as industrial lines, medical and nursing cares, and rehabilitation tools. However, the pneumatic system needs several devices; compressor, air tube, and control valve. This research aim to downsize pneumatic system. In this paper, a new method of multiplex pneumatic transmission for multi-pneumatic servo system is proposed. The valve for this system consists of two vibrators supported by springs, which was designed with simple and cheap structure. The working principle of the valve is vibrators resonance from multiplex pneumatic transmission and it is possible to work as ON/OFF valves without electric wire. Dynamic simulation was used to confirm the working principle of the resonance driving system. A prototype device confirming the principle was designed and developed based on the simulation. The experiments show that this new control system works very well to control two separated valves through single pneumatic tube.

A generic model of contagious disease and its application to human-to-human transmission of avian influenza.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hirsch, Gary B.

2007-03-01

Modeling contagious diseases has taken on greater importance over the past several years as diseases such as SARS and avian influenza have raised concern about worldwide pandemics. Most models developed to consider projected outbreaks have been specific to a single disease. This paper describes a generic System Dynamics contagious disease model and its application to human-to-human transmission of a mutant version of avian influenza. The model offers the option of calculating rates of new infections over time based either on a fixed ''reproductive number'' that is traditional in contagious disease models or on contact rates for different sub-populations and likelihoodmore » of transmission per contact. The paper reports on results with various types of interventions. These results suggest the potential importance of contact tracing, limited quarantine, and targeted vaccination strategies as methods for controlling outbreaks, especially when vaccine supplies may initially be limited and the efficacy of anti-viral drugs uncertain.« less

Complex Dynamics of the Power Transmission Grid (and other Critical Infrastructures)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newman, David

2015-03-01

Our modern societies depend crucially on a web of complex critical infrastructures such as power transmission networks, communication systems, transportation networks and many others. These infrastructure systems display a great number of the characteristic properties of complex systems. Important among these characteristics, they exhibit infrequent large cascading failures that often obey a power law distribution in their probability versus size. This power law behavior suggests that conventional risk analysis does not apply to these systems. It is thought that much of this behavior comes from the dynamical evolution of the system as it ages, is repaired, upgraded, and as the operational rules evolve with human decision making playing an important role in the dynamics. In this talk, infrastructure systems as complex dynamical systems will be introduced and some of their properties explored. The majority of the talk will then be focused on the electric power transmission grid though many of the results can be easily applied to other infrastructures. General properties of the grid will be discussed and results from a dynamical complex systems power transmission model will be compared with real world data. Then we will look at a variety of uses of this type of model. As examples, we will discuss the impact of size and network homogeneity on the grid robustness, the change in risk of failure as generation mix (more distributed vs centralized for example) changes, as well as the effect of operational changes such as the changing the operational risk aversion or grid upgrade strategies. One of the important outcomes from this work is the realization that ``improvements'' in the system components and operational efficiency do not always improve the system robustness, and can in fact greatly increase the risk, when measured as a risk of large failure.

Climate and the Timing of Imported Cases as Determinants of the Dengue Outbreak in Guangzhou, 2014: Evidence from a Mathematical Model

PubMed Central

Spear, Robert C.; Marshall, John M.; Yang, Zhicong; Gong, Peng

2016-01-01

As the world’s fastest spreading vector-borne disease, dengue was estimated to infect more than 390 million people in 2010, a 30-fold increase in the past half century. Although considered to be a non-endemic country, mainland China had 55,114 reported dengue cases from 2005 to 2014, of which 47,056 occurred in 2014. Furthermore, 94% of the indigenous cases in this time period were reported in Guangdong Province, 83% of which were in Guangzhou City. In order to determine the possible determinants of the unprecedented outbreak in 2014, a population-based deterministic model was developed to describe dengue transmission dynamics in Guangzhou. Regional sensitivity analysis (RSA) was adopted to calibrate the model and entomological surveillance data was used to validate the mosquito submodel. Different scenarios were created to investigate the roles of the timing of an imported case, climate, vertical transmission from mosquitoes to their offspring, and intervention. The results suggested that an early imported case was the most important factor in determining the 2014 outbreak characteristics. Precipitation and temperature can also change the transmission dynamics. Extraordinary high precipitation in May and August, 2014 appears to have increased vector abundance. Considering the relatively small number of cases in 2013, the effect of vertical transmission was less important. The earlier and more frequent intervention in 2014 also appeared to be effective. If the intervention in 2014 was the same as that in 2013, the outbreak size may have been over an order of magnitude higher than the observed number of new cases in 2014.The early date of the first imported and locally transmitted case was largely responsible for the outbreak in 2014, but it was influenced by intervention, climate and vertical transmission. Early detection and response to imported cases in the spring and early summer is crucial to avoid large outbreaks in the future. PMID:26863623

Modeling the effect of seasonal variation in ambient temperature on the transmission dynamics of a pathogen with a free-living stage: example of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in a dairy herd.

PubMed

Gautam, Raju; Bani-Yaghoub, Majid; Neill, William H; Döpfer, Dörte; Kaspar, Charles; Ivanek, Renata

2011-10-01

To explore the potential role of ambient temperature on infection transmission dynamics for pathogens, we used Escherichia coli O157:H7 in a dairy herd and the surrounding farm environment as a model system. For this system, we developed a mathematical model in which a Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible (SIS) model of infection spread through the host population is coupled with a metapopulation model of E. coli O157:H7 free-living stage in the environment allowing bacterial growth to be influenced by ambient temperature. Model results indicate that seasonal variation in ambient temperature could have a considerable impact on pathogen populations in the environment, specifically on barn surfaces and in water troughs, and consequently on the prevalence of infection in the host population. Based on model assumptions, contaminated drinking water was the most important pathway of E. coli O157:H7 transmission to cattle. Sensitivity analysis indicated that water-borne transmission is amplified during the warmer months if the amount of standing drinking water available to the cattle herd is high. This is because warmer ambient temperature favors faster pathogen replication which when combined with slower water replacement-rate due to high amount of available standing water leads to a greater pathogen load in drinking water. These results offer a possible explanation of the seasonal variation in E. coli O157:H7 prevalence in cattle and suggest that improved drinking-water management could be used for control of this infection in cattle. Our study demonstrates how consideration of ambient temperature in transmission cycles of pathogens able to survive and grow in the environment outside the host could offer novel perspectives on the spread and control of infections caused by such pathogens. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling the impact of Plasmodium falciparum sexual stage immunity on the composition and dynamics of the human infectious reservoir for malaria in natural settings.

PubMed

Ouédraogo, André Lin; Eckhoff, Philip A; Luty, Adrian J F; Roeffen, Will; Sauerwein, Robert W; Bousema, Teun; Wenger, Edward A

2018-05-01

Malaria transmission remains high in Sub-Saharan Africa despite large-scale implementation of malaria control interventions. A comprehensive understanding of the transmissibility of infections to mosquitoes may guide the design of more effective transmission reducing strategies. The impact of P. falciparum sexual stage immunity on the infectious reservoir for malaria has never been studied in natural settings. Repeated measurements were carried out at start-wet, peak-wet and dry season, and provided data on antibody responses against gametocyte/gamete antigens Pfs48/45 and Pfs230 as anti-gametocyte immunity. Data on high and low-density infections and their infectiousness to anopheline mosquitoes were obtained using quantitative molecular methods and mosquito feeding assays, respectively. An event-driven model for P. falciparum sexual stage immunity was developed and fit to data using an agent based malaria model infrastructure. We found that Pfs48/45 and Pfs230 antibody densities increased with increasing concurrent gametocyte densities; associated with 55-70% reduction in oocyst intensity and achieved up to 44% reduction in proportions of infected mosquitoes. We showed that P. falciparum sexual stage immunity significantly reduces transmission of microscopic (p < 0.001) but not submicroscopic (p = 0.937) gametocyte infections to mosquitoes and that incorporating sexual stage immunity into mathematical models had a considerable impact on the contribution of different age groups to the infectious reservoir of malaria. Human antibody responses to gametocyte antigens are likely to be dependent on recent and concurrent high-density gametocyte exposure and have a pronounced impact on the likelihood of onward transmission of microscopic gametocyte densities compared to low density infections. Our mathematical simulations indicate that anti-gametocyte immunity is an important factor for predicting and understanding the composition and dynamics of the human infectious reservoir for malaria.

Vertical Transmission of Hepatitis C Virus: Variable Transmission Bottleneck and Evidence of Midgestation In Utero Infection.

PubMed

Fauteux-Daniel, Sébastien; Larouche, Ariane; Calderon, Virginie; Boulais, Jonathan; Béland, Chanel; Ransy, Doris G; Boucher, Marc; Lamarre, Valérie; Lapointe, Normand; Boucoiran, Isabelle; Le Campion, Armelle; Soudeyns, Hugo

2017-12-01

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) can be transmitted from mother to child during pregnancy and childbirth. However, the timing and precise biological mechanisms that are involved in this process are incompletely understood, as are the determinants that influence transmission of particular HCV variants. Here we report results of a longitudinal assessment of HCV quasispecies diversity and composition in 5 cases of vertical HCV transmission, including 3 women coinfected with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1). The population structure of HCV variant spectra based on E2 envelope gene sequences (nucleotide positions 1491 to 1787), including hypervariable regions 1 and 2, was characterized using next-generation sequencing and median-joining network analysis. Compatible with a loose transmission bottleneck, larger numbers of shared HCV variants were observed in the presence of maternal coinfection. Coalescent Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations revealed median times of transmission between 24.9 weeks and 36.1 weeks of gestation, with some confidence intervals ranging into the 1st trimester, considerably earlier than previously thought. Using recombinant autologous HCV pseudoparticles, differences were uncovered in HCV-specific antibody responses between coinfected mothers and mothers infected with HCV alone, in whom generalized absence of neutralization was observed. Finally, shifts in HCV quasispecies composition were seen in children around 1 year of age, compatible with the disappearance of passively transferred maternal immunoglobulins and/or the development of HCV-specific humoral immunity. Taken together, these results provide insights into the timing, dynamics, and biologic mechanisms involved in vertical HCV transmission and inform preventative strategies. IMPORTANCE Although it is well established that hepatitis C virus (HCV) can be transmitted from mother to child, the manner and the moment at which transmission operates have been the subject of conjecture. By carrying out a detailed examination of viral sequences, we showed that transmission could take place comparatively early in pregnancy. In addition, we showed that when the mother also carried human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1), many more HCV variants were shared between her and her child, suggesting that the mechanism and/or the route of transmission of HCV differed in the presence of coinfection with HIV-1. These results could explain why cesarean section is ineffective in preventing vertical HCV transmission and guide the development of interventions to avert pediatric HCV infection. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.

Using the basic reproduction number to assess the effects of climate change in the risk of Chagas disease transmission in Colombia.

PubMed

Cordovez, Juan M; Rendon, Lina Maria; Gonzalez, Camila; Guhl, Felipe

2014-01-01

The dynamics of vector-borne diseases has often been linked to climate change. However the commonly complex dynamics of vector-borne diseases make it very difficult to predict risk based on vector or host distributions. The basic reproduction number (R0) integrates all factors that determine whether a pathogen can establish or not. To obtain R0 for complex vector-borne diseases one can use the next-generation matrix (NGM) approach. We used the NGM to compute R0 for Chagas disease in Colombia incorporating the effect of temperature in some of the transmission routes of Trypanosoma cruzi. We used R0 to generate a risk map of present conditions and a forecast risk map at 20 years from now based on mean annual temperature (data obtained from Worldclim). In addition we used the model to compute elasticity and sensitivity indexes on all model parameters and routes of transmission. We present this work as an approach to indicate which transmission pathways are more critical for disease transmission but acknowledge the fact that results and projections strongly depend on better knowledge of entomological parameters and transmission routes. We concluded that the highest contribution to R0 comes from transmission of the parasites from humans to vectors, which is a surprising result. In addition,parameters related to contacts between human and vectors and the efficiency of parasite transmission between them also show a prominent effect on R0.

Effects of phenotypic plasticity on pathogen transmission in the field in a Lepidoptera-NPV system.

PubMed

Reeson, A F; Wilson, K; Cory, J S; Hankard, P; Weeks, J M; Goulson, D; Hails, R S

2000-08-01

In models of insect-pathogen interactions, the transmission parameter (ν) is the term that describes the efficiency with which pathogens are transmitted between hosts. There are two components to the transmission parameter, namely the rate at which the host encounters pathogens (contact rate) and the rate at which contact between host and pathogen results in infection (host susceptibility). Here it is shown that in larvae of Spodoptera exempta (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), in which rearing density triggers the expression of one of two alternative phenotypes, the high-density morph is associated with an increase in larval activity. This response is likely to result in an increase in the contact rate between hosts and pathogens. Rearing density is also known to affect susceptibility of S. exempta to pathogens, with the high-density morph showing increased resistance to a baculovirus. In order to determine whether density-dependent differences observed in the laboratory might affect transmission in the wild, a field trial was carried out to estimate the transmission parameter for S. exempta and its nuclear polyhedrosis virus (NPV). The transmission parameter was found to be significantly higher among larvae reared in isolation than among those reared in crowds. Models of insect-pathogen interactions, in which the transmission parameter is assumed to be constant, will therefore not fully describe the S. exempta-NPV system. The finding that crowding can influence transmission in this way has major implications for both the long-term population dynamics and the invasion dynamics of insect-pathogen systems.

Inferring HIV-1 Transmission Dynamics in Germany From Recently Transmitted Viruses.

PubMed

Pouran Yousef, Kaveh; Meixenberger, Karolin; Smith, Maureen R; Somogyi, Sybille; Gromöller, Silvana; Schmidt, Daniel; Gunsenheimer-Bartmeyer, Barbara; Hamouda, Osamah; Kücherer, Claudia; von Kleist, Max

2016-11-01

Although HIV continues to spread globally, novel intervention strategies such as treatment as prevention (TasP) may bring the epidemic to a halt. However, their effective implementation requires a profound understanding of the underlying transmission dynamics. We analyzed parameters of the German HIV epidemic based on phylogenetic clustering of viral sequences from recently infected seroconverters with known infection dates. Viral baseline and follow-up pol sequences (n = 1943) from 1159 drug-naïve individuals were selected from a nationwide long-term observational study initiated in 1997. Putative transmission clusters were computed based on a maximum likelihood phylogeny. Using individual follow-up sequences, we optimized our clustering threshold to maximize the likelihood of co-clustering individuals connected by direct transmission. The sizes of putative transmission clusters scaled inversely with their abundance and their distribution exhibited a heavy tail. Clusters based on the optimal clustering threshold were significantly more likely to contain members of the same or bordering German federal states. Interinfection times between co-clustered individuals were significantly shorter (26 weeks; interquartile range: 13-83) than in a null model. Viral intraindividual evolution may be used to select criteria that maximize co-clustering of transmission pairs in the absence of strong adaptive selection pressure. Interinfection times of co-clustered individuals may then be an indicator of the typical time to onward transmission. Our analysis suggests that onward transmission may have occurred early after infection, when individuals are typically unaware of their serological status. The latter argues that TasP should be combined with HIV testing campaigns to reduce the possibility of transmission before TasP initiation.

Interfacial bioconjugation on emulsion droplet for biosensors.

PubMed

Zhang, Qifan; Scigliano, Anita; Biver, Tarita; Pucci, Andrea; Swager, Timothy M

2018-04-13

Interfacial bioconjugation methods are developed for intact liquid emulsion droplets. Complex emulsion droplets having internal hydrocarbon and fluorocarbon immiscible structured phases maintain a dynamic interface for controlled interfacial reactivity. The internal morphological change after binding to biomolecules is readily visualized and detected by light transmission, which provides a platform for the formation of inexpensive and portable bio-sensing assays for enzymes, antibodies, nucleic acids and carbohydrates. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Epidemics in markets with trade friction and imperfect transactions.

PubMed

Moslonka-Lefebvre, Mathieu; Monod, Hervé; Gilligan, Christopher A; Vergu, Elisabeta; Filipe, João A N

2015-06-07

Market trade-routes can support infectious-disease transmission, impacting biological populations and even disrupting trade that conduces the disease. Epidemiological models increasingly account for reductions in infectious contact, such as risk-aversion behaviour in response to pathogen outbreaks. However, responses in market dynamics clearly differ from simple risk aversion, as are driven by other motivation and conditioned by "friction" constraints (a term we borrow from labour economics). Consequently, the propagation of epidemics in markets of, for example livestock, is frictional due to time and cost limitations in the production and exchange of potentially infectious goods. Here we develop a coupled economic-epidemiological model where transient and long-term market dynamics are determined by trade friction and agent adaptation, and can influence disease transmission. The market model is parameterised from datasets on French cattle and pig exchange networks. We show that, when trade is the dominant route of transmission, market friction can be a significantly stronger determinant of epidemics than risk-aversion behaviour. In particular, there is a critical level of friction above which epidemics do not occur, which suggests some epidemics may not be sustained in highly frictional markets. In addition, friction may allow for greater delay in removal of infected agents that still mitigates the epidemic and its impacts. We suggest that policy for minimising contagion in markets could be adjusted to the level of market friction, by adjusting the urgency of intervention or by increasing friction through incentivisation of larger-volume less-frequent transactions that would have limited effect on overall trade flow. Our results are robust to model specificities and can hold in the presence of non-trade disease-transmission routes. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Linking social and pathogen transmission networks using microbial genetics in giraffe (Giraffa camelopardalis).

PubMed

VanderWaal, Kimberly L; Atwill, Edward R; Isbell, Lynne A; McCowan, Brenda

2014-03-01

Although network analysis has drawn considerable attention as a promising tool for disease ecology, empirical research has been hindered by limitations in detecting the occurrence of pathogen transmission (who transmitted to whom) within social networks. Using a novel approach, we utilize the genetics of a diverse microbe, Escherichia coli, to infer where direct or indirect transmission has occurred and use these data to construct transmission networks for a wild giraffe population (Giraffe camelopardalis). Individuals were considered to be a part of the same transmission chain and were interlinked in the transmission network if they shared genetic subtypes of E. coli. By using microbial genetics to quantify who transmits to whom independently from the behavioural data on who is in contact with whom, we were able to directly investigate how the structure of contact networks influences the structure of the transmission network. To distinguish between the effects of social and environmental contact on transmission dynamics, the transmission network was compared with two separate contact networks defined from the behavioural data: a social network based on association patterns, and a spatial network based on patterns of home-range overlap among individuals. We found that links in the transmission network were more likely to occur between individuals that were strongly linked in the social network. Furthermore, individuals that had more numerous connections or that occupied 'bottleneck' positions in the social network tended to occupy similar positions in the transmission network. No similar correlations were observed between the spatial and transmission networks. This indicates that an individual's social network position is predictive of transmission network position, which has implications for identifying individuals that function as super-spreaders or transmission bottlenecks in the population. These results emphasize the importance of association patterns in understanding transmission dynamics, even for environmentally transmitted microbes like E. coli. This study is the first to use microbial genetics to construct and analyse transmission networks in a wildlife population and highlights the potential utility of an approach integrating microbial genetics with network analysis. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

Ion transfer from an atmospheric pressure ion funnel into a mass spectrometer with different interface options: Simulation-based optimization of ion transmission efficiency.

PubMed

Mayer, Thomas; Borsdorf, Helko

2016-02-15

We optimized an atmospheric pressure ion funnel (APIF) including different interface options (pinhole, capillary, and nozzle) regarding a maximal ion transmission. Previous computer simulations consider the ion funnel itself and do not include the geometry of the following components which can considerably influence the ion transmission into the vacuum stage. Initially, a three-dimensional computer-aided design (CAD) model of our setup was created using Autodesk Inventor. This model was imported to the Autodesk Simulation CFD program where the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) were calculated. The flow field was transferred to SIMION 8.1. Investigations of ion trajectories were carried out using the SDS (statistical diffusion simulation) tool of SIMION, which allowed us to evaluate the flow regime, pressure, and temperature values that we obtained. The simulation-based optimization of different interfaces between an atmospheric pressure ion funnel and the first vacuum stage of a mass spectrometer require the consideration of fluid dynamics. The use of a Venturi nozzle ensures the highest level of transmission efficiency in comparison to capillaries or pinholes. However, the application of radiofrequency (RF) voltage and an appropriate direct current (DC) field leads to process optimization and maximum ion transfer. The nozzle does not hinder the transfer of small ions. Our high-resolution SIMION model (0.01 mm grid unit(-1) ) under consideration of fluid dynamics is generally suitable for predicting the ion transmission through an atmospheric-vacuum system for mass spectrometry and enables the optimization of operational parameters. A Venturi nozzle inserted between the ion funnel and the mass spectrometer permits maximal ion transmission. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Estimating the reproductive numbers for the 2008–2009 cholera outbreaks in Zimbabwe

PubMed Central

Mukandavire, Zindoga; Liao, Shu; Wang, Jin; Gaff, Holly; Smith, David L.; Morris, J. Glenn

2011-01-01

Cholera remains an important global cause of morbidity and mortality, capable of causing periodic epidemic disease. Beginning in August 2008, a major cholera epidemic occurred in Zimbabwe, with 98,585 reported cases and 4,287 deaths. The dynamics of such outbreaks, particularly in nonestuarine regions, are not well understood. We explored the utility of mathematical models in understanding transmission dynamics of cholera and in assessing the magnitude of interventions necessary to control epidemic disease. Weekly data on reported cholera cases were obtained from the Zimbabwe Ministry of Health and Child Welfare (MoHCW) for the period from November 13, 2008 to July 31, 2009. A mathematical model was formulated and fitted to cumulative cholera cases to estimate the basic reproductive numbers R0 and the partial reproductive numbers from all 10 provinces for the 2008–2009 Zimbabwe cholera epidemic. Estimated basic reproductive numbers were highly heterogeneous, ranging from a low value of just above unity to 2.72. Partial reproductive numbers were also highly heterogeneous, suggesting that the transmission routes varied by province; human-to-human transmission accounted for 41–95% of all transmission. Our models suggest that the underlying patterns of cholera transmission varied widely from province to province, with a corresponding variation in the amenability of outbreaks in different provinces to control measures such as immunization. These data underscore the heterogeneity of cholera transmission dynamics, potentially linked to differences in environment, socio-economic conditions, and cultural practices. The lack of traditional estuarine reservoirs combined with these estimates of R0 suggest that mass vaccination against cholera deployed strategically in Zimbabwe and surrounding regions could prevent future cholera epidemics and eventually eliminate cholera from the region. PMID:21518855

Impact of Public Safety Policies on Human Immunodeficiency Virus Transmission Dynamics in Tijuana, Mexico.

PubMed

Mehta, Sanjay R; Chaillon, Antoine; Gaines, Tommi L; Gonzalez-Zuniga, Patricia E; Stockman, Jamila K; Almanza-Reyes, Horatio; Chavez, Jose Roman; Vera, Alicia; Wagner, Karla D; Patterson, Thomas L; Scott, Brianna; Smith, Davey M; Strathdee, Steffanie A

2018-02-10

North Tijuana, Mexico is home to many individuals at high risk for transmitting and acquiring human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Recently, policy shifts by local government impacted how these individuals were handled by authorities. Here we examined how this affected regional HIV transmission dynamics. HIV pol sequences and associated demographic information were collected from 8 research studies enrolling persons in Tijuana and were used to infer viral transmission patterns. To evaluate the impact of recent policy changes on HIV transmission dynamics, qualitative interviews were performed on a subset of recently infected individuals. Between 2004 and 2016, 288 unique HIV pol sequences were obtained from individuals in Tijuana, including 46.4% from men who have sex with men, 42.1% from individuals reporting transactional sex, and 27.8% from persons who inject drugs (some individuals had >1 risk factor). Forty-two percent of sequences linked to at least 1 other sequence, forming 37 transmission clusters. Thirty-two individuals seroconverted during the observation period, including 8 between April and July 2016. Three of these individuals were putatively linked together. Qualitative interviews suggested changes in policing led individuals to shift locations of residence and injection drug use, leading to increased risk taking (eg, sharing needles). Near real-time molecular epidemiologic analyses identified a cluster of linked transmissions temporally associated with policy shifts. Interviews suggested these shifts may have led to increased risk taking among individuals at high risk for HIV acquisition. With all public policy shifts, downstream impacts need to be carefully considered, as even well-intentioned policies can have major public health consequences. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Dynamics of a feline virus with two transmission modes within exponentially growing host populations.

PubMed Central

Berthier, K; Langlais, M; Auger, P; Pontier, D

2000-01-01

Feline panleucopenia virus (FPLV) was introduced in 1977 on Marion Island (in the southern Indian Ocean) with the aim of eradicating the cat population and provoked a huge decrease in the host population within six years. The virus can be transmitted either directly through contacts between infected and healthy cats or indirectly between a healthy cat and the contaminated environment: a specific feature of the virus is its high rate of survival outside the host. In this paper, a model was designed in order to take these two modes of transmission into account. The results showed that a mass-action incidence assumption was more appropriate than a proportionate mixing one in describing the dynamics of direct transmission. Under certain conditions the virus was able to control the host population at a low density. The indirect transmission acted as a reservoir supplying the host population with a low but sufficient density of infected individuals which allowed the virus to persist. The dynamics of the infection were more affected by the demographic parameters of the healthy hosts than by the epidemiological ones. Thus, demographic parameters should be precisely measured in field studies in order to obtain accurate predictions. The predicted results of our model were in good agreement with observations. PMID:11416908

Transmission models and management of lymphatic filariasis elimination.

PubMed

Michael, Edwin; Gambhir, Manoj

2010-01-01

The planning and evaluation of parasitic control programmes are complicated by the many interacting population dynamic and programmatic factors that determine infection trends under different control options. A key need is quantification about the status of the parasite system state at any one given timepoint and the dynamic change brought upon that state as an intervention program proceeds. Here, we focus on the control and elimination of the vector-borne disease, lymphatic filariasis, to show how mathematical models of parasite transmission can provide a quantitative framework for aiding the design of parasite elimination and monitoring programs by their ability to support (1) conducting rational analysis and definition of endpoints for different programmatic aims or objectives, including transmission endpoints for disease elimination, (2) undertaking strategic analysis to aid the optimal design of intervention programs to meet set endpoints under different endemic settings and (3) providing support for performing informed evaluations of ongoing programs, including aiding the formation of timely adaptive management strategies to correct for any observed deficiencies in program effectiveness. The results also highlight how the use of a model-based framework will be critical to addressing the impacts of ecological complexities, heterogeneities and uncertainties on effective parasite management and thereby guiding the development of strategies to resolve and overcome such real-world complexities. In particular, we underscore how this approach can provide a link between ecological science and policy by revealing novel tools and measures to appraise and enhance the biological controllability or eradicability of parasitic diseases. We conclude by emphasizing an urgent need to develop and apply flexible adaptive management frameworks informed by mathematical models that are based on learning and reducing uncertainty using monitoring data, apply phased or sequential decision-making to address extant uncertainty and focus on developing ecologically resilient management strategies, in ongoing efforts to control or eliminate filariasis and other parasitic diseases in resource-poor communities.

The design and analysis of single flank transmission error tester for loaded gears

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bassett, Duane E.; Houser, Donald R.

1987-01-01

To strengthen the understanding of gear transmission error and to verify mathematical models which predict them, a test stand that will measure the transmission error of gear pairs under design loads has been investigated. While most transmission error testers have been used to test gear pairs under unloaded conditions, the goal of this report was to design and perform dynamic analysis of a unique tester with the capability of measuring the transmission error of gears under load. This test stand will have the capability to continuously load a gear pair at torques up to 16,000 in-lb at shaft speeds from 0 to 5 rpm. Error measurement will be accomplished with high resolution optical encoders and the accompanying signal processing unit from an existing unloaded transmission error tester. Input power to the test gear box will be supplied by a dc torque motor while the load will be applied with a similar torque motor. A dual input, dual output control system will regulate the speed and torque of the system. This control system's accuracy and dynamic response were analyzed and it was determined that proportional plus derivative speed control is needed in order to provide the precisely constant torque necessary for error-free measurement.

Staphylococcus aureus infections: transmission within households and the community

PubMed Central

Knox, Justin; Uhlemann, Anne-Catrin; Lowy, Franklin D.

2015-01-01

Staphylococcus aureus , both methicillin susceptible and resistant, are now major community-based pathogens worldwide. The basis for this is multifactorial and includes the emergence of epidemic clones with enhanced virulence, antibiotic resistance, colonization potential, or transmissibility. Household reservoirs of these unique strains are crucial to their success as community-based pathogens. Staphylococci become resident in households, either as colonizers or environmental contaminants, increasing the risk for recurrent infections. Interactions of household members with others in different households or at community sites including schools and daycare facilities play a critical role in the ability of these strains to become endemic. Colonization density at these sites appears to play an important role in facilitating transmission. The integration of research tools including whole genome sequencing, mathematical modeling and social network analysis have provided additional insight into the transmission dynamics of these strains. Thus far, interventions designed to reduce recurrent infections among household members have had limited success, likely due to the multiplicity of potential sources for recolonization. The development of better strategies to reduce the number of household-based infections will depend on greater insight into the different factors that contribute to the success of these uniquely successful epidemic clones of S. aureus. PMID:25864883

The Use of Mathematical Models of Chlamydia Transmission to Address Public Health Policy Questions: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Rönn, Minttu M; Wolf, Emory E; Chesson, Harrell; Menzies, Nicolas A; Galer, Kara; Gorwitz, Rachel; Gift, Thomas; Hsu, Katherine; Salomon, Joshua A

2017-05-01

Mathematical models of chlamydia transmission can help inform disease control policy decisions when direct empirical evaluation of alternatives is impractical. We reviewed published chlamydia models to understand the range of approaches used for policy analyses and how the studies have responded to developments in the field. We performed a literature review by searching Medline and Google Scholar (up to October 2015) to identify publications describing dynamic chlamydia transmission models used to address public health policy questions. We extracted information on modeling methodology, interventions, and key findings. We identified 47 publications (including two model comparison studies), which reported collectively on 29 distinct mathematical models. Nine models were individual-based, and 20 were deterministic compartmental models. The earliest studies evaluated the benefits of national-level screening programs and predicted potentially large benefits from increased screening. Subsequent trials and further modeling analyses suggested the impact might have been overestimated. Partner notification has been increasingly evaluated in mathematical modeling, whereas behavioral interventions have received relatively limited attention. Our review provides an overview of chlamydia transmission models and gives a perspective on how mathematical modeling has responded to increasing empirical evidence and addressed policy questions related to prevention of chlamydia infection and sequelae.

Remote driving with reduced bandwidth communication

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Depiero, Frederick W.; Noell, Timothy E.; Gee, Timothy F.

1993-01-01

Oak Ridge National Laboratory has developed a real-time video transmission system for low bandwidth remote operations. The system supports both continuous transmission of video for remote driving and progressive transmission of still images. Inherent in the system design is a spatiotemporal limitation to the effects of channel errors. The average data rate of the system is 64,000 bits/s, a compression of approximately 1000:1 for the black and white National Television Standard Code video. The image quality of the transmissions is maintained at a level that supports teleoperation of a high mobility multipurpose wheeled vehicle at speeds up to 15 mph on a moguled dirt track. Video compression is achieved by using Laplacian image pyramids and a combination of classical techniques. Certain subbands of the image pyramid are transmitted by using interframe differencing with a periodic refresh to aid in bandwidth reduction. Images are also foveated to concentrate image detail in a steerable region. The system supports dynamic video quality adjustments between frame rate, image detail, and foveation rate. A typical configuration for the system used during driving has a frame rate of 4 Hz, a compression per frame of 125:1, and a resulting latency of less than 1s.

Modeling spatial invasion of Ebola in West Africa.

PubMed

D'Silva, Jeremy P; Eisenberg, Marisa C

2017-09-07

The 2014-2016 Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) epidemic in West Africa was the largest ever recorded, representing a fundamental shift in Ebola epidemiology with unprecedented spatiotemporal complexity. To understand the spatiotemporal dynamics of EVD in West Africa, we developed spatial transmission models using a gravity-model framework at both the national and district-level scales, which we used to compare effectiveness of local interventions (e.g. local quarantine) and long-range interventions (e.g. border-closures). The country-level gravity model captures the epidemic data, including multiple waves of initial epidemic growth observed in Guinea. We found that local-transmission reductions were most effective in Liberia, while long-range transmission was dominant in Sierra Leone. Both models illustrated that interventions in one region result in an amplified protective effect on other regions by preventing spatial transmission. In the district-level model, interventions in the strongest of these amplifying regions reduced total cases in all three countries by over 20%, in spite of the region itself generating only ∼0.1% of total cases. This model structure and associated intervention analysis provide information that can be used by public health policymakers to assist planning and response efforts for future epidemics. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hybrid WDM/TDM PON Using the AWG FSR and Featuring Centralized Light Generation and Dynamic Bandwidth Allocation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bock, Carlos; Prat, Josep; Walker, Stuart D.

2005-12-01

A novel time/space/wavelength division multiplexing (TDM/WDM) architecture using the free spectral range (FSR) periodicity of the arrayed waveguide grating (AWG) is presented. A shared tunable laser and a photoreceiver stack featuring dynamic bandwidth allocation (DBA) and remote modulation are used for transmission and reception. Transmission tests show correct operation at 2.5 Gb/s to a 30-km reach, and network performance calculations using queue modeling demonstrate that a high-bandwidth-demanding application could be deployed on this network.

Information encoder/decoder using chaotic systems

DOEpatents

Miller, Samuel Lee; Miller, William Michael; McWhorter, Paul Jackson

1997-01-01

The present invention discloses a chaotic system-based information encoder and decoder that operates according to a relationship defining a chaotic system. Encoder input signals modify the dynamics of the chaotic system comprising the encoder. The modifications result in chaotic, encoder output signals that contain the encoder input signals encoded within them. The encoder output signals are then capable of secure transmissions using conventional transmission techniques. A decoder receives the encoder output signals (i.e., decoder input signals) and inverts the dynamics of the encoding system to directly reconstruct the original encoder input signals.

Information encoder/decoder using chaotic systems

DOEpatents

Miller, S.L.; Miller, W.M.; McWhorter, P.J.

1997-10-21

The present invention discloses a chaotic system-based information encoder and decoder that operates according to a relationship defining a chaotic system. Encoder input signals modify the dynamics of the chaotic system comprising the encoder. The modifications result in chaotic, encoder output signals that contain the encoder input signals encoded within them. The encoder output signals are then capable of secure transmissions using conventional transmission techniques. A decoder receives the encoder output signals (i.e., decoder input signals) and inverts the dynamics of the encoding system to directly reconstruct the original encoder input signals. 32 figs.

Chancroid transmission dynamics: a mathematical modeling approach.

PubMed

Bhunu, C P; Mushayabasa, S

2011-12-01

Mathematical models have long been used to better understand disease transmission dynamics and how to effectively control them. Here, a chancroid infection model is presented and analyzed. The disease-free equilibrium is shown to be globally asymptotically stable when the reproduction number is less than unity. High levels of treatment are shown to reduce the reproduction number suggesting that treatment has the potential to control chancroid infections in any given community. This result is also supported by numerical simulations which show a decline in chancroid cases whenever the reproduction number is less than unity.

Dynamics of West Nile virus evolution in mosquito vectors.

PubMed

Grubaugh, Nathan D; Ebel, Gregory D

2016-12-01

West Nile virus remains the most common cause of arboviral encephalitis in North America. Since it was introduced, it has undergone adaptive genetic change as it spread throughout the continent. The WNV transmission cycle is relatively tractable in the laboratory. Thus the virus serves as a convenient model system for studying the population biology of mosquito-borne flaviviruses as they undergo transmission to and from mosquitoes and vertebrates. This review summarizes the current knowledge regarding the population dynamics of this virus within mosquito vectors. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Variable-Speed Simulation of a Dual-Clutch Gearbox Tiltrotor Driveline

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeSmidt, Hans; Wang, Kon-Well; Smith, Edward C.; Lewicki, David G.

2012-01-01

This investigation explores the variable-speed operation and shift response of a prototypical two-speed dual-clutch transmission tiltrotor driveline in forward flight. Here, a Comprehensive Variable-Speed Rotorcraft Propulsion System Modeling (CVSRPM) tool developed under a NASA funded NRA program is utilized to simulate the drive system dynamics. In this study, a sequential shifting control strategy is analyzed under a steady forward cruise condition. This investigation attempts to build upon previous variable-speed rotorcraft propulsion studies by 1) including a fully nonlinear transient gas-turbine engine model, 2) including clutch stick-slip friction effects, 3) including shaft flexibility, 4) incorporating a basic flight dynamics model to account for interactions with the flight control system. Through exploring the interactions between the various subsystems, this analysis provides important insights into the continuing development of variable-speed rotorcraft propulsion systems.

Transmission Dynamics, Border Entry Screening, and School Holidays during the 2009 Influenza A (H1N1) Pandemic, China

PubMed Central

Yu, Hongjie; Cauchemez, Simon; Donnelly, Christl A.; Zhou, Lei; Feng, Luzhao; Xiang, Nijuan; Zheng, Jiandong; Ye, Min; Huai, Yang; Liao, Qiaohong; Peng, Zhibin; Feng, Yunxia; Jiang, Hui; Yang, Weizhong; Wang, Yu; Feng, Zijian

2012-01-01

Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus spread rapidly around the world in 2009. We used multiple data sources from surveillance systems and specific investigations to characterize the transmission patterns of this virus in China during May–November 2009 and analyze the effectiveness of border entry screening and holiday-related school closures on transmission. In China, age distribution and transmission dynamic characteristics were similar to those in Northern Hemisphere temperate countries. The epidemic was focused in children, with an effective reproduction number of ≈1.2–1.3. The 8 days of national holidays in October reduced the effective reproduction number by 37% (95% credible interval 28%–45%) and increased underreporting by ≈20%–30%. Border entry screening detected at most 37% of international travel–related cases, with most (89%) persons identified as having fever at time of entry. These findings suggest that border entry screening was unlikely to have delayed spread in China by >4 days. PMID:22515989

Layer-switching cost and optimality in information spreading on multiplex networks

PubMed Central

Min, Byungjoon; Gwak, Sang-Hwan; Lee, Nanoom; Goh, K. -I.

2016-01-01

We study a model of information spreading on multiplex networks, in which agents interact through multiple interaction channels (layers), say online vs. offline communication layers, subject to layer-switching cost for transmissions across different interaction layers. The model is characterized by the layer-wise path-dependent transmissibility over a contact, that is dynamically determined dependently on both incoming and outgoing transmission layers. We formulate an analytical framework to deal with such path-dependent transmissibility and demonstrate the nontrivial interplay between the multiplexity and spreading dynamics, including optimality. It is shown that the epidemic threshold and prevalence respond to the layer-switching cost non-monotonically and that the optimal conditions can change in abrupt non-analytic ways, depending also on the densities of network layers and the type of seed infections. Our results elucidate the essential role of multiplexity that its explicit consideration should be crucial for realistic modeling and prediction of spreading phenomena on multiplex social networks in an era of ever-diversifying social interaction layers. PMID:26887527

Split torque transmission load sharing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krantz, T. L.; Rashidi, M.; Kish, J. G.

1992-01-01

Split torque transmissions are attractive alternatives to conventional planetary designs for helicopter transmissions. The split torque designs can offer lighter weight and fewer parts but have not been used extensively for lack of experience, especially with obtaining proper load sharing. Two split torque designs that use different load sharing methods have been studied. Precise indexing and alignment of the geartrain to produce acceptable load sharing has been demonstrated. An elastomeric torque splitter that has large torsional compliance and damping produces even better load sharing while reducing dynamic transmission error and noise. However, the elastomeric torque splitter as now configured is not capable over the full range of operating conditions of a fielded system. A thrust balancing load sharing device was evaluated. Friction forces that oppose the motion of the balance mechanism are significant. A static analysis suggests increasing the helix angle of the input pinion of the thrust balancing design. Also, dynamic analysis of this design predicts good load sharing and significant torsional response to accumulative pitch errors of the gears.

MRSA Transmission Dynamics Among Interconnected Acute, Intermediate-Term, and Long-Term Healthcare Facilities in Singapore.

PubMed

Chow, Angela; Lim, Vanessa W; Khan, Ateeb; Pettigrew, Kerry; Lye, David C B; Kanagasabai, Kala; Phua, Kelvin; Krishnan, Prabha; Ang, Brenda; Marimuthu, Kalisvar; Hon, Pei-Yun; Koh, Jocelyn; Leong, Ian; Parkhill, Julian; Hsu, Li-Yang; Holden, Matthew T G

2017-05-15

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is the most common healthcare-associated multidrug-resistant organism. Despite the interconnectedness between acute care hospitals (ACHs) and intermediate- and long-term care facilities (ILTCFs), the transmission dynamics of MRSA between healthcare settings is not well understood. We conducted a cross-sectional study in a network comprising an ACH and 5 closely affiliated ILTCFs in Singapore. A total of 1700 inpatients were screened for MRSA over a 6-week period in 2014. MRSA isolates underwent whole-genome sequencing, with a pairwise single-nucleotide polymorphism (Hamming distance) cutoff of 60 core genome single-nucleotide polymorphisms used to define recent transmission clusters (clades) for the 3 major clones. MRSA prevalence was significantly higher in intermediate-term (29.9%) and long-term (20.4%) care facilities than in the ACH (11.8%) (P < .001). The predominant clones were sequence type [ST] 22 (n = 183; 47.8%), ST45 (n = 129; 33.7%), and ST239 (n = 26; 6.8%), with greater diversity of STs in ILTCFs relative to the ACH. A large proportion of the clades in ST22 (14 of 21 clades; 67%) and ST45 (7 of 13; 54%) included inpatients from the ACH and ILTCFs. The most frequent source of the interfacility transmissions was the ACH (n = 28 transmission events; 36.4%). MRSA transmission dynamics between the ACH and ILTCFs were complex. The greater diversity of STs in ILTCFs suggests that the ecosystem in such settings might be more conducive for intrafacility transmission events. ST22 and ST45 have successfully established themselves in ILTCFs. The importance of interconnected infection prevention and control measures and strategies cannot be overemphasized. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Modeling social transmission dynamics of unhealthy behaviors for evaluating prevention and treatment interventions on childhood obesity.

PubMed

Frerichs, Leah M; Araz, Ozgur M; Huang, Terry T-K

2013-01-01

Research evidence indicates that obesity has spread through social networks, but lever points for interventions based on overlapping networks are not well studied. The objective of our research was to construct and parameterize a system dynamics model of the social transmission of behaviors through adult and youth influence in order to explore hypotheses and identify plausible lever points for future childhood obesity intervention research. Our objectives were: (1) to assess the sensitivity of childhood overweight and obesity prevalence to peer and adult social transmission rates, and (2) to test the effect of combinations of prevention and treatment interventions on the prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity. To address the first objective, we conducted two-way sensitivity analyses of adult-to-child and child-to-child social transmission in relation to childhood overweight and obesity prevalence. For the second objective, alternative combinations of prevention and treatment interventions were tested by varying model parameters of social transmission and weight loss behavior rates. Our results indicated child overweight and obesity prevalence might be slightly more sensitive to the same relative change in the adult-to-child compared to the child-to-child social transmission rate. In our simulations, alternatives with treatment alone, compared to prevention alone, reduced the prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity more after 10 years (1.2-1.8% and 0.2-1.0% greater reduction when targeted at children and adults respectively). Also, as the impact of adult interventions on children was increased, the rank of six alternatives that included adults became better (i.e., resulting in lower 10 year childhood overweight and obesity prevalence) than alternatives that only involved children. The findings imply that social transmission dynamics should be considered when designing both prevention and treatment intervention approaches. Finally, targeting adults may be more efficient, and research should strengthen and expand adult-focused interventions that have a high residual impact on children.

Modeling Social Transmission Dynamics of Unhealthy Behaviors for Evaluating Prevention and Treatment Interventions on Childhood Obesity

PubMed Central

Frerichs, Leah M.; Araz, Ozgur M.; Huang, Terry T. – K.

2013-01-01

Research evidence indicates that obesity has spread through social networks, but lever points for interventions based on overlapping networks are not well studied. The objective of our research was to construct and parameterize a system dynamics model of the social transmission of behaviors through adult and youth influence in order to explore hypotheses and identify plausible lever points for future childhood obesity intervention research. Our objectives were: (1) to assess the sensitivity of childhood overweight and obesity prevalence to peer and adult social transmission rates, and (2) to test the effect of combinations of prevention and treatment interventions on the prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity. To address the first objective, we conducted two-way sensitivity analyses of adult-to-child and child-to-child social transmission in relation to childhood overweight and obesity prevalence. For the second objective, alternative combinations of prevention and treatment interventions were tested by varying model parameters of social transmission and weight loss behavior rates. Our results indicated child overweight and obesity prevalence might be slightly more sensitive to the same relative change in the adult-to-child compared to the child-to-child social transmission rate. In our simulations, alternatives with treatment alone, compared to prevention alone, reduced the prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity more after 10 years (1.2–1.8% and 0.2–1.0% greater reduction when targeted at children and adults respectively). Also, as the impact of adult interventions on children was increased, the rank of six alternatives that included adults became better (i.e., resulting in lower 10 year childhood overweight and obesity prevalence) than alternatives that only involved children. The findings imply that social transmission dynamics should be considered when designing both prevention and treatment intervention approaches. Finally, targeting adults may be more efficient, and research should strengthen and expand adult-focused interventions that have a high residual impact on children. PMID:24358234

Seasonal and Regional Dynamics of M. ulcerans Transmission in Environmental Context: Deciphering the Role of Water Bugs as Hosts and Vectors

PubMed Central

Marion, Estelle; Eyangoh, Sara; Yeramian, Edouard; Doannio, Julien; Landier, Jordi; Aubry, Jacques; Fontanet, Arnaud; Rogier, Christophe; Cassisa, Viviane; Cottin, Jane; Marot, Agnès; Eveillard, Matthieu; Kamdem, Yannick; Legras, Pierre; Deshayes, Caroline; Saint-André, Jean-Paul; Marsollier, Laurent

2010-01-01

Background Buruli ulcer, the third mycobacterial disease after tuberculosis and leprosy, is caused by the environmental mycobacterium M. ulcerans. Various modes of transmission have been suspected for this disease, with no general consensus acceptance for any of them up to now. Since laboratory models demonstrated the ability of water bugs to transmit M. ulcerans, a particular attention is focused on the transmission of the bacilli by water bugs as hosts and vectors. However, it is only through detailed knowledge of the biodiversity and ecology of water bugs that the importance of this mode of transmission can be fully assessed. It is the objective of the work here to decipher the role of water bugs in M. ulcerans ecology and transmission, based on large-scale field studies. Methodology/Principal Findings The distribution of M. ulcerans-hosting water bugs was monitored on previously unprecedented time and space scales: a total of 7,407 water bugs, belonging to large number of different families, were collected over one year, in Buruli ulcer endemic and non endemic areas in central Cameroon. This study demonstrated the presence of M. ulcerans in insect saliva. In addition, the field results provided a full picture of the ecology of transmission in terms of biodiversity and detailed specification of seasonal and regional dynamics, with large temporal heterogeneity in the insect tissue colonization rate and detection of M. ulcerans only in water bug tissues collected in Buruli ulcer endemic areas. Conclusion/Significance The large-scale detection of bacilli in saliva of biting water bugs gives enhanced weight to their role in M. ulcerans transmission. On practical grounds, beyond the ecological interest, the results concerning seasonal and regional dynamics can provide an efficient tool in the hands of sanitary authorities to monitor environmental risks associated with Buruli ulcer. PMID:20625552

Horizontal transmission of the ectoparasite Gyrodactylus arcuatus (Monogenea: Gyrodactylidae) to the next generation of the three-spined stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus.

PubMed

Lumme, Jaakko; Zietara, Marek S

2018-04-19

In the parthenogenetic monogeneans of the genus Gyrodactylus Nordmann, 1832, the genetic diversity within or between hosts is determined by the relative roles of lateral transmission and clonal propagation. Clonality and limited transmission lead to high-amplitude metapopulation dynamics and strong genetic drift. In Baltic populations of the three-spined stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus Linnaeus, the local mitochondrial diversity of Gyrodactylus arcuatus Bychowsky, 1933 is very high, and spatial differentiation weak. To understand the transmission dynamics in a single location, the transmission of the parasite from adults to next generation sticklebacks was investigated in a northern Baltic brackish water location. By sequencing 777 nt of cox1, as many as 38 separate mitochondrial haplotypes were identified. In August, the intensity of gyrodactylid infection on adult hosts was high, the haplotype diversity (h) was extreme and differentiation between fish was negligible (total h = 0.926, mean h = 0.938). In October, only 46% of the juvenile sticklebacks carried G. arcuatus. The number of parasites per young fish followed a Poisson distribution 0.92 ± 1.04 (mean ± SD) on October 2, and was clearly overdispersed 2.38 ± 5.00 on October 25. The total haplotype diversity of parasites on juveniles was nearly as high as in adults (h = 0.916), but the mean per fish was only h = 0.364 (F ST = 0.60), due to low intensity of infection and rapid clonal propagation of early arrivals. The initial first come first served advantage of the first gyrodactylid colonisers will be lost during the host adulthood via continuous transmission. Nesting and polygamy are suggested as factors maintaining the high genetic diversity of the parasite population. The transmission dynamics and, consequently, the population structure of Baltic G. arcuatus is fundamentally different from that of G. salaris Malmberg, 1957, on the Baltic salmon Salmo salar Linnaeus.

Dynamic advance reservation with delayed allocation

DOEpatents

Vokkarane, Vinod; Somani, Arun

2014-12-02

A method of scheduling data transmissions from a source to a destination, includes the steps of: providing a communication system having a number of channels and a number of paths, each of the channels having a plurality of designated time slots; receiving two or more data transmission requests; provisioning the transmission of the data; receiving data corresponding to at least one of the two or more data transmission requests; waiting until an earliest requested start time T.sub.s; allocating at the current time each of the two or more data transmission requests; transmitting the data; and repeating the steps of waiting, allocating, and transmitting until each of the two or more data transmission requests that have been provisioned for a transmission of data is satisfied. A system to perform the method of scheduling data transmissions is also described.

Constitutive modeling and dynamic softening mechanism during hot deformation of an ultra-pure 17%Cr ferritic stainless steel stabilized with Nb

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Fei; Liu, Zhenyu; Misra, R. D. K.; Liu, Haitao; Yu, Fuxiao

2014-09-01

The hot deformation behavior of an ultra-pure 17%Cr ferritic stainless steel was studied in the temperature range of 750-1000 °C and strain rates of 0.5 to 10 s-1 using isothermal hot compression tests in a thermomechanical simulator. The microstructural evolution was investigated using electron backscattered diffraction and transmission electron microscopy. A modified constitutive equation considering the effect of strain on material constant was developed, which predicted the flow stress for the deformation conditions studied, except at 950 °C in 1 s-1 and 900 °C in 10 s-1. Decreasing deformation temperature and increasing strain was beneficial in refining the microstructure. Decreasing deformation temperature, the in-grain shear bands appeared in the microstructure. It is suggested that the dynamic softening mechanism is closely related to deformation temperature. At low deformation temperature, dynamic recovery was major softening mechanism and no dynamic recrystallization occurred. At high deformation temperature, dynamic softening was explained in terms of efficient dynamic recovery and limited continuous dynamic recrystallization. A drop in the flow stress was not found due to very small fraction of new grains nucleated during dynamic recrystallization.

Closed-cycle gas dynamic laser design investigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ketch, G. W.; Young, W. E.

1977-01-01

A conceptual design study was made of a closed cycle gas-dynamic laser to provide definition of the major components in the laser loop. The system potential application is for long range power transmission by way of high power laser beams to provide satellite propulsion energy for orbit changing or station keeping. A parametric cycle optimization was conducted to establish the thermodynamic requirements for the system components. A conceptual design was conducted of the closed cycle system and the individual components to define physical characteristics and establish the system size and weight. Technology confirmation experimental demonstration programs were outlined to develop, evaluate, and demonstrate the technology base needed for this closed cycle GDL system.

A dual-waveband dynamic IR scene projector based on DMD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Yu; Zheng, Ya-wei; Gao, Jiao-bo; Sun, Ke-feng; Li, Jun-na; Zhang, Lei; Zhang, Fang

2016-10-01

Infrared scene simulation system can simulate multifold objects and backgrounds to perform dynamic test and evaluate EO detecting system in the hardware in-the-loop test. The basic structure of a dual-waveband dynamic IR scene projector was introduced in the paper. The system's core device is an IR Digital Micro-mirror Device (DMD) and the radiant source is a mini-type high temperature IR plane black-body. An IR collimation optical system which transmission range includes 3-5μm and 8-12μm is designed as the projection optical system. Scene simulation software was developed with Visual C++ and Vega soft tools and a software flow chart was presented. The parameters and testing results of the system were given, and this system was applied with satisfying performance in an IR imaging simulation testing.

Thermal and Structural Analysis of Helicopter Transmission Housings Using NASTRAN

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Howells, R. W.; Sciarra, J. J.; Ng, G. S.

1976-01-01

The application of NASTRAN to improve the design of helicopter transmission housings is described. A finite element model of the complete forward rotor transmission housing for the Boeing Vertol CH-47C helicopter was used to study thermal distortion and stress, stress and deflection due to static and dynamic loads, load paths, and design optimization by the control of structural energy distribution. The analytical results are correlated with test data and used to reduce weight and to improve strength, service life, failsafety, and reliability. The techniques presented, although applied herein to helicopter transmissions, are sufficiently general to be applicable to any power transmission system.

Design-Parameters Setup for Power-Split Dual-Regime IVT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Preda, Ion; Ciolan, Gheorghe; Covaciu, Dinu

2017-10-01

To analyze the working possibilities of power-split infinitely variable transmissions (IVTs) it is necessary to follow a systematic approach. The method proposed in this paper consists of generating a block diagram of the transmission and then, based on this diagram, to derive the kinematics and dynamics equations of the transmission. For an actual numerical case, the derived equations are used to find characteristic values of the transmission components (gear and chain drives, planetary units) necessary to calculate the speed ratios, the speeds, torques and powers acting on the shafts and coupling (control) elements, and even to estimate the overall efficiency of the transmission.

Modelling of high-frequency structure-borne sound transmission on FEM grids using the Discrete Flow Mapping technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartmann, Timo; Tanner, Gregor; Xie, Gang; Chappell, David; Bajars, Janis

2016-09-01

Dynamical Energy Analysis (DEA) combined with the Discrete Flow Mapping technique (DFM) has recently been introduced as a mesh-based high frequency method modelling structure borne sound for complex built-up structures. This has proven to enhance vibro-acoustic simulations considerably by making it possible to work directly on existing finite element meshes circumventing time-consuming and costly re-modelling strategies. In addition, DFM provides detailed spatial information about the vibrational energy distribution within a complex structure in the mid-to-high frequency range. We will present here progress in the development of the DEA method towards handling complex FEM-meshes including Rigid Body Elements. In addition, structure borne transmission paths due to spot welds are considered. We will present applications for a car floor structure.

New discoveries in the transmission biology of sleeping sickness parasites: applying the basics.

PubMed

MacGregor, Paula; Matthews, Keith R

2010-09-01

The sleeping sickness parasite, Trypanosoma brucei, must differentiate in response to the changing environments that it encounters during its complex life cycle. One developmental form, the bloodstream stumpy stage, plays an important role in infection dynamics and transmission of the parasite. Recent advances have shed light on the molecular mechanisms by which these stumpy forms differentiate as they are transmitted from the mammalian host to the insect vector of sleeping sickness, tsetse flies. These molecular advances now provide improved experimental tools for the study of stumpy formation and function within the mammalian bloodstream. They also offer new routes to therapy via high-throughput screens for agents that accelerate parasite development. Here, we shall discuss the recent advances that have been made and the prospects for future research now available.

Reversal of Alcohol-Induced Dysregulation in Dopamine Network Dynamics May Rescue Maladaptive Decision-making

PubMed Central

Schindler, Abigail G.; Soden, Marta E.; Zweifel, Larry S.

2016-01-01

Alcohol is the most commonly abused substance among adolescents, promoting the development of substance use disorders and compromised decision-making in adulthood. We have previously demonstrated, with a preclinical model in rodents, that adolescent alcohol use results in adult risk-taking behavior that positively correlates with phasic dopamine transmission in response to risky options, but the underlying mechanisms remain unknown. Here, we show that adolescent alcohol use may produce maladaptive decision-making through a disruption in dopamine network dynamics via increased GABAergic transmission within the ventral tegmental area (VTA). Indeed, we find that increased phasic dopamine signaling after adolescent alcohol use is attributable to a midbrain circuit, including the input from the pedunculopontine tegmentum to the VTA. Moreover, we demonstrate that VTA dopamine neurons from adult rats exhibit enhanced IPSCs after adolescent alcohol exposure corresponding to decreased basal dopamine levels in adulthood that negatively correlate with risk-taking. Building on these findings, we develop a model where increased inhibitory tone on dopamine neurons leads to a persistent decrease in tonic dopamine levels and results in a potentiation of stimulus-evoked phasic dopamine release that may drive risky choice behavior. Based on this model, we take a pharmacological approach to the reversal of risk-taking behavior through normalization of this pattern in dopamine transmission. These results isolate the underlying circuitry involved in alcohol-induced maladaptive decision-making and identify a novel therapeutic target. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT One of the primary problems resulting from chronic alcohol use is persistent, maladaptive decision-making that is associated with ongoing addiction vulnerability and relapse. Indeed, studies with the Iowa Gambling Task, a standard measure of risk-based decision-making, have reliably shown that alcohol-dependent individuals make riskier, more maladaptive choices than nondependent individuals, even after periods of prolonged abstinence. Using a preclinical model, in the current work, we identify a selective disruption in dopamine network dynamics that may promote maladaptive decision-making after chronic adolescent alcohol use and demonstrate its pharmacological reversal in adulthood. Together, these results highlight a novel neural mechanism underlying heightened risk-taking behavior in alcohol-dependent individuals and provide a potential therapeutic target for further investigation. PMID:27030756

Adult vector control, mosquito ecology and malaria transmission.

PubMed

Brady, Oliver J; Godfray, H Charles J; Tatem, Andrew J; Gething, Peter W; Cohen, Justin M; McKenzie, F Ellis; Alex Perkins, T; Reiner, Robert C; Tusting, Lucy S; Scott, Thomas W; Lindsay, Steven W; Hay, Simon I; Smith, David L

2015-03-01

Standard advice regarding vector control is to prefer interventions that reduce the lifespan of adult mosquitoes. The basis for this advice is a decades-old sensitivity analysis of 'vectorial capacity', a concept relevant for most malaria transmission models and based solely on adult mosquito population dynamics. Recent advances in micro-simulation models offer an opportunity to expand the theory of vectorial capacity to include both adult and juvenile mosquito stages in the model. In this study we revisit arguments about transmission and its sensitivity to mosquito bionomic parameters using an elasticity analysis of developed formulations of vectorial capacity. We show that reducing adult survival has effects on both adult and juvenile population size, which are significant for transmission and not accounted for in traditional formulations of vectorial capacity. The elasticity of these effects is dependent on various mosquito population parameters, which we explore. Overall, control is most sensitive to methods that affect adult mosquito mortality rates, followed by blood feeding frequency, human blood feeding habit, and lastly, to adult mosquito population density. These results emphasise more strongly than ever the sensitivity of transmission to adult mosquito mortality, but also suggest the high potential of combinations of interventions including larval source management. This must be done with caution, however, as policy requires a more careful consideration of costs, operational difficulties and policy goals in relation to baseline transmission. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Unraveling the Transmission Ecology of Polio.

PubMed

Martinez-Bakker, Micaela; King, Aaron A; Rohani, Pejman

2015-06-01

Sustained and coordinated vaccination efforts have brought polio eradication within reach. Anticipating the eradication of wild poliovirus (WPV) and the subsequent challenges in preventing its re-emergence, we look to the past to identify why polio rose to epidemic levels in the mid-20th century, and how WPV persisted over large geographic scales. We analyzed an extensive epidemiological dataset, spanning the 1930s to the 1950s and spatially replicated across each state in the United States, to glean insight into the drivers of polio's historical expansion and the ecological mode of its persistence prior to vaccine introduction. We document a latitudinal gradient in polio's seasonality. Additionally, we fitted and validated mechanistic transmission models to data from each US state independently. The fitted models revealed that: (1) polio persistence was the product of a dynamic mosaic of source and sink populations; (2) geographic heterogeneity of seasonal transmission conditions account for the latitudinal structure of polio epidemics; (3) contrary to the prevailing "disease of development" hypothesis, our analyses demonstrate that polio's historical expansion was straightforwardly explained by demographic trends rather than improvements in sanitation and hygiene; and (4) the absence of clinical disease is not a reliable indicator of polio transmission, because widespread polio transmission was likely in the multiyear absence of clinical disease. As the world edges closer to global polio eradication and continues the strategic withdrawal of the Oral Polio Vaccine (OPV), the regular identification of, and rapid response to, these silent chains of transmission is of the utmost importance.

Flexible traffic control of the synfire-mode transmission by inhibitory modulation: Nonlinear noise reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shinozaki, Takashi; Okada, Masato; Reyes, Alex D.; Câteau, Hideyuki

2010-01-01

Intermingled neural connections apparent in the brain make us wonder what controls the traffic of propagating activity in the brain to secure signal transmission without harmful crosstalk. Here, we reveal that inhibitory input but not excitatory input works as a particularly useful traffic controller because it controls the degree of synchrony of population firing of neurons as well as controlling the size of the population firing bidirectionally. Our dynamical system analysis reveals that the synchrony enhancement depends crucially on the nonlinear membrane potential dynamics and a hidden slow dynamical variable. Our electrophysiological study with rodent slice preparations show that the phenomenon happens in real neurons. Furthermore, our analysis with the Fokker-Planck equations demonstrates the phenomenon in a semianalytical manner.

A Dynamic Model of Human and Livestock Tuberculosis Spread and Control in Urumqi, Xinjiang, China

PubMed Central

Liu, Shan; Li, Aiqiao; Feng, Xiaomei; Zhang, Xueliang

2016-01-01

We establish a dynamical model for tuberculosis of humans and cows. For the model, we firstly give the basic reproduction number R 0. Furthermore, we discuss the dynamical behaviors of the model. By epidemiological investigation of tuberculosis among humans and livestock from 2007 to 2014 in Urumqi, Xinjiang, China, we estimate the parameters of the model and study the transmission trend of the disease in Urumqi, Xinjiang, China. The reproduction number in Urumqi for the model is estimated to be 0.1811 (95% confidence interval: 0.123–0.281). Finally, we perform some sensitivity analysis of several model parameters and give some useful comments on controlling the transmission of tuberculosis. PMID:27525034

Dynamic evolution of the spectrum of long-period fiber Bragg gratings fabricated from hydrogen-loaded optical fiber by ultraviolet laser irradiation.

PubMed

Fujita, Keio; Masuda, Yuji; Nakayama, Keisuke; Ando, Maki; Sakamoto, Kenji; Mohri, Jun-pei; Yamauchi, Makoto; Kimura, Masanori; Mizutani, Yasuo; Kimura, Susumu; Yokouchi, Takashi; Suzaki, Yoshifumi; Ejima, Seiki

2005-11-20

Long-period fiber Bragg gratings fabricated by exposure of hydrogen-loaded fiber to UV laser light exhibit large-scale dynamic evolution for approximately two weeks at room temperature. During this time two distinct features show up in their spectrum: a large upswing in wavelength and a substantial deepening of the transmission minimum. The dynamic evolution of the transmission spectrum is explained quantitatively by use of Malo's theory of UV-induced quenching [Electron. Lett. 30, 442 (1994)] followed by refilling of hydrogen in the fiber core and the theory of hydrogen diffusion in the fiber material. The amount of hydrogen quenched by the UV irradiation is 6% of the loaded hydrogen.

Evolution of a beam dynamics model for the transport line in a proton therapy facility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rizzoglio, V.; Adelmann, A.; Baumgarten, C.; Frey, M.; Gerbershagen, A.; Meer, D.; Schippers, J. M.

2017-12-01

During the conceptual design of an accelerator or beamline, first-order beam dynamics models are essential for studying beam properties. However, they can only produce approximate results. During commissioning, these approximate results are compared to measurements, which will rarely coincide if the model does not include the relevant physics. It is therefore essential that this linear model is extended to include higher-order effects. In this paper, the effects of particle-matter interaction have been included in the model of the transport lines in the proton therapy facility at the Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI) in Switzerland. The first-order models of these beamlines provide an approximated estimation of beam size, energy loss and transmission. To improve the performance of the facility, a more precise model was required and has been developed with opal (Object Oriented Parallel Accelerator Library), a multiparticle open source beam dynamics code. In opal, the Monte Carlo simulations of Coulomb scattering and energy loss are performed seamless with the particle tracking. Beside the linear optics, the influence of the passive elements (e.g., degrader, collimators, scattering foils, and air gaps) on the beam emittance and energy spread can be analyzed in the new model. This allows for a significantly improved precision in the prediction of beam transmission and beam properties. The accuracy of the opal model has been confirmed by numerous measurements.

An improved global dynamic routing strategy for scale-free network with tunable clustering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Lina; Huang, Ning; Zhang, Yue; Bai, Yannan

2016-08-01

An efficient routing strategy can deliver packets quickly to improve the network capacity. Node congestion and transmission path length are inevitable real-time factors for a good routing strategy. Existing dynamic global routing strategies only consider the congestion of neighbor nodes and the shortest path, which ignores other key nodes’ congestion on the path. With the development of detection methods and techniques, global traffic information is readily available and important for the routing choice. Reasonable use of this information can effectively improve the network routing. So, an improved global dynamic routing strategy is proposed, which considers the congestion of all nodes on the shortest path and incorporates the waiting time of the most congested node into the path. We investigate the effectiveness of the proposed routing for scale-free network with different clustering coefficients. The shortest path routing strategy and the traffic awareness routing strategy only considering the waiting time of neighbor node are analyzed comparatively. Simulation results show that network capacity is greatly enhanced compared with the shortest path; congestion state increase is relatively slow compared with the traffic awareness routing strategy. Clustering coefficient increase will not only reduce the network throughput, but also result in transmission average path length increase for scale-free network with tunable clustering. The proposed routing is favorable to ease network congestion and network routing strategy design.

Dynamic impedance compensation for wireless power transfer using conjugate power

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Suqi; Tan, Jianping; Wen, Xue

2018-02-01

Wireless power transfer (WPT) via coupled magnetic resonances has been in development for over a decade. However, the frequency splitting phenomenon occurs in the over-coupled region. Thus, the output power of the two-coil system achieves the maximum output power at the two splitting angular frequencies, and not at the natural resonant angular frequency. According to the maximum power transfer theorem, the impedance compensation method was adopted in many WPT projects. However, it remains a challenge to achieve the maximum output power and transmission efficiency in a fixed-frequency mode. In this study, dynamic impedance compensation for WPT was presented by utilizing the compensator within a virtual three-coil WPT system. First, the circuit model was established and transfer characteristics of a system were studied by utilizing circuit theories. Second, the power superposition of the WPT system was carefully researched. When a pair of compensating coils was inserted into the transmitter loop, the conjugate power of the compensator loop was created via magnetic coupling of the two compensating coils that insert into the transmitter loop. The mechanism for dynamic impedance compensation for wireless power transfer was then provided by investigating a virtual three-coil WPT system. Finally, the experimental circuit of a virtual three-coil WPT system was designed, and experimental results are consistent with the theoretical analysis, which achieves the maximum output power and transmission efficiency.