Locomotive dynamic performance under traction/braking conditions considering effect of gear transmissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Zaigang; Zhai, Wanming; Wang, Kaiyun

2018-07-01

Traction or braking operations are usually applied to trains or locomotives for acceleration, speed adjustment, and stopping. During these operations, gear transmission equipment plays a very significant role in the delivery of traction or electrical braking power. Failures of the gear transmissions are likely to cause power loses and even threaten the operation safety of the train. Its dynamic performance is closely related to the normal operation and service safety of the entire train, especially under some emergency braking conditions. In this paper, a locomotive-track coupled vertical-longitudinal dynamics model is employed with considering the dynamic action from the gear transmissions. This dynamics model enables the detailed analysis and more practical simulation on the characteristics of power transmission path, namely motor-gear transmission-wheelset-longitudinal motion of locomotive, especially for traction or braking conditions. Multi-excitation sources, such as time-varying mesh stiffness and nonlinear wheel-rail contact excitations, are considered in this study. This dynamics model is then validated by comparing the simulated results with the experimental test results under braking conditions. The calculated results indicate that involvement of gear transmission could reveal the load reduction of the wheelset due to transmitted forces. Vibrations of the wheelset and the motor are dominated by variation of the gear dynamic mesh forces in the low speed range and by rail geometric irregularity in the higher speed range. Rail vertical geometric irregularity could also cause wheelset longitudinal vibrations, and do modulations to the gear dynamic mesh forces. Besides, the hauling weight has little effect on the locomotive vibrations and the dynamic mesh forces of the gear transmissions for both traction and braking conditions under the same running speed.

Detection of allosteric signal transmission by information-theoretic analysis of protein dynamics

PubMed Central

Pandini, Alessandro; Fornili, Arianna; Fraternali, Franca; Kleinjung, Jens

2012-01-01

Allostery offers a highly specific way to modulate protein function. Therefore, understanding this mechanism is of increasing interest for protein science and drug discovery. However, allosteric signal transmission is difficult to detect experimentally and to model because it is often mediated by local structural changes propagating along multiple pathways. To address this, we developed a method to identify communication pathways by an information-theoretical analysis of molecular dynamics simulations. Signal propagation was described as information exchange through a network of correlated local motions, modeled as transitions between canonical states of protein fragments. The method was used to describe allostery in two-component regulatory systems. In particular, the transmission from the allosteric site to the signaling surface of the receiver domain NtrC was shown to be mediated by a layer of hub residues. The location of hubs preferentially connected to the allosteric site was found in close agreement with key residues experimentally identified as involved in the signal transmission. The comparison with the networks of the homologues CheY and FixJ highlighted similarities in their dynamics. In particular, we showed that a preorganized network of fragment connections between the allosteric and functional sites exists already in the inactive state of all three proteins.—Pandini, A., Fornili, A., Fraternali, F., Kleinjung, J. Detection of allosteric signal transmission by information-theoretic analysis of protein dynamics. PMID:22071506

The Epidemiological Characteristics and Dynamic Transmission of Dengue in China, 2013

PubMed Central

lu, Liang; Bi, Peng; Lv, Ming; Liu, Qiyong

2016-01-01

Background There was a dengue epidemic in several regions of China in 2013. No study has explored the dynamics of dengue transmission between different geographical locations with dengue outbreaks in China. The purpose of the study is to analyze the epidemiological characteristics and to explore the dynamic transmission of dengue in China, 2013. Methodology and Principal Findings Records of dengue cases of 2013 were obtained from the China Notifiable Disease Surveillance System. Full E-gene sequences of dengue virus detected from the outbreak regions of China were download from GenBank. Geographical Information System and heatmaps were used to describe the epidemiological characteristics. Maximum Likelihood phylogenetic and Bayesian phylogeographic analyses were conducted to explore the dengue dynamic transmission. Yunnan Province and Guangdong Province had the highest imported cases in the 2013 epidemic. In the locations with local dengue transmission, most of imported cases occurred from June to November 2013 while local dengue cases developed from July to December, 2013. There were significant variations for the incidences of dengue, in terms of age distributions, among different geographic locations. However, gender differences were identified in Guangzhou, Foshan and Xishuangbanna. DENV 1–3 were detected in all locations with the disease outbreaks. Some genotypes were detected in more than one locations and more than one genotypes have been detected in several locations. The dengue viruses introduced to outbreak areas were predominantly from Southeast Asia. In Guangdong Province, the phylogeographical results indicated that dengue viruses of DENV 1 were transmitted to neighboring cities Foshan and Zhongshan from Guangzhou city, and then transmitted to Jiangmen city. The virus in DENV 3 was introduced to Guangzhou city, Guangdong Province from Xishuangbanna prefecture, Yunnan Province. Conclusions Repeated dengue virus introductions from Southeast Asia and

A review of malaria transmission dynamics in forest ecosystems

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Malaria continues to be a major health problem in more than 100 endemic countries located primarily in tropical and sub-tropical regions around the world. Malaria transmission is a dynamic process and involves many interlinked factors, from uncontrollable natural environmental conditions to man-made disturbances to nature. Almost half of the population at risk of malaria lives in forest areas. Forests are hot beds of malaria transmission as they provide conditions such as vegetation cover, temperature, rainfall and humidity conditions that are conducive to distribution and survival of malaria vectors. Forests often lack infrastructure and harbor tribes with distinct genetic traits, socio-cultural beliefs and practices that greatly influence malaria transmission dynamics. Here we summarize the various topographical, entomological, parasitological, human ecological and socio-economic factors, which are crucial and shape malaria transmission in forested areas. An in-depth understanding and synthesis of the intricate relationship of these parameters in achieving better malaria control in various types of forest ecosystems is emphasized. PMID:24912923

Dynamic high-speed acquisition system design of transmission error with USB based on LabVIEW and FPGA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Yong; Chen, Yan

2013-10-01

To realize the design of dynamic acquisition system for real-time detection of transmission chain error is very important to improve the machining accuracy of machine tool. In this paper, the USB controller and FPGA is used for hardware platform design, combined with LabVIEW to design user applications, NI-VISA is taken for develop USB drivers, and ultimately achieve the dynamic acquisition system design of transmission error

Transmission Dynamics of Rhodesian Sleeping Sickness at the Interface of Wildlife and Livestock Areas.

PubMed

Auty, Harriet; Morrison, Liam J; Torr, Stephen J; Lord, Jennifer

2016-08-01

Many wilderness areas of East and Southern Africa are foci for Rhodesian sleeping sickness, a fatal zoonotic disease caused by trypanosomes transmitted by tsetse flies. Although transmission in these foci is traditionally driven by wildlife reservoirs, rising human and livestock populations may increase the role of livestock in transmission cycles. Deciphering transmission dynamics at wildlife and livestock interface areas is key to developing appropriate control. Data are lacking for key parameters, including host distributions, tsetse density, and mortality rates, and the relative roles of livestock and wildlife as hosts in fragmented habitats, limiting the development of meaningful models to assist in the assessment and implementation of control strategies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Transmission dynamics of cholera: Mathematical modeling and control strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Gui-Quan; Xie, Jun-Hui; Huang, Sheng-He; Jin, Zhen; Li, Ming-Tao; Liu, Liqun

2017-04-01

Cholera, as an endemic disease around the world, has generated great threat to human society and caused enormous morbidity and mortality with weak surveillance system. In this paper, we propose a mathematical model to describe the transmission of Cholera. Moreover, basic reproduction number and the global dynamics of the dynamical model are obtained. Then we apply our model to characterize the transmission process of Cholera in China. It was found that, in order to avoid its outbreak in China, it may be better to increase immunization coverage rate and make effort to improve environmental management especially for drinking water. Our results may provide some new insights for elimination of Cholera.

Cell transmission model of dynamic assignment for urban rail transit networks.

PubMed

Xu, Guangming; Zhao, Shuo; Shi, Feng; Zhang, Feilian

2017-01-01

For urban rail transit network, the space-time flow distribution can play an important role in evaluating and optimizing the space-time resource allocation. For obtaining the space-time flow distribution without the restriction of schedules, a dynamic assignment problem is proposed based on the concept of continuous transmission. To solve the dynamic assignment problem, the cell transmission model is built for urban rail transit networks. The priority principle, queuing process, capacity constraints and congestion effects are considered in the cell transmission mechanism. Then an efficient method is designed to solve the shortest path for an urban rail network, which decreases the computing cost for solving the cell transmission model. The instantaneous dynamic user optimal state can be reached with the method of successive average. Many evaluation indexes of passenger flow can be generated, to provide effective support for the optimization of train schedules and the capacity evaluation for urban rail transit network. Finally, the model and its potential application are demonstrated via two numerical experiments using a small-scale network and the Beijing Metro network.

Global Transmission Dynamics of Measles in the Measles Elimination Era.

PubMed

Furuse, Yuki; Oshitani, Hitoshi

2017-04-16

Although there have been many epidemiological reports of the inter-country transmission of measles, systematic analysis of the global transmission dynamics of the measles virus (MV) is limited. In this study, we applied phylogeographic analysis to characterize the global transmission dynamics of the MV using large-scale genetic sequence data (obtained for 7456 sequences) from 115 countries between 1954 and 2015. These analyses reveal the spatial and temporal characteristics of global transmission of the virus, especially in Australia, China, India, Japan, the UK, and the USA in the period since 1990. The transmission is frequently observed, not only within the same region but also among distant and frequently visited areas. Frequencies of export from measles-endemic countries, such as China, India, and Japan are high but decreasing, while the frequencies from countries where measles is no longer endemic, such as Australia, the UK, and the USA, are low but slightly increasing. The world is heading toward measles eradication, but the disease is still transmitted regionally and globally. Our analysis reveals that countries wherein measles is endemic and those having eliminated the disease (apart from occasional outbreaks) both remain a source of global transmission in this measles elimination era. It is therefore crucial to maintain vigilance in efforts to monitor and eradicate measles globally.

Parasite transmission among relatives halts Red Queen dynamics.

PubMed

Greenspoon, Philip B; Mideo, Nicole

2017-03-01

The theory that coevolving hosts and parasites create a fluctuating selective environment for one another (i.e., produce Red Queen dynamics) has deep roots in evolutionary biology; yet empirical evidence for Red Queen dynamics remains scarce. Fluctuating coevolutionary dynamics underpin the Red Queen hypothesis for the evolution of sex, as well as hypotheses explaining the persistence of genetic variation under sexual selection, local parasite adaptation, the evolution of mutation rate, and the evolution of nonrandom mating. Coevolutionary models that exhibit Red Queen dynamics typically assume that hosts and parasites encounter one another randomly. However, if related individuals aggregate into family groups or are clustered spatially, related hosts will be more likely to encounter parasites transmitted by genetically similar individuals. Using a model that incorporates familial parasite transmission, we show that a slight degree of familial parasite transmission is sufficient to halt coevolutionary fluctuations. Our results predict that evidence for Red Queen dynamics, and its evolutionary consequences, are most likely to be found in biological systems in which hosts and parasites mix mainly at random, and are less likely to be found in systems with familial aggregation. This presents a challenge to the Red Queen hypothesis and other hypotheses that depend on coevolutionary cycling. © 2016 The Author(s). Evolution © 2016 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Uncovering the transmission dynamics of Plasmodium vivax using population genetics

PubMed Central

Barry, Alyssa E.; Waltmann, Andreea; Koepfli, Cristian; Barnadas, Celine; Mueller, Ivo

2015-01-01

Population genetic analysis of malaria parasites has the power to reveal key insights into malaria epidemiology and transmission dynamics with the potential to deliver tools to support control and elimination efforts. Analyses of parasite genetic diversity have suggested that Plasmodium vivax populations are more genetically diverse and less structured than those of Plasmodium falciparum indicating that P. vivax may be a more ancient parasite of humans and/or less susceptible to population bottlenecks, as well as more efficient at disseminating its genes. These population genetic insights into P. vivax transmission dynamics provide an explanation for its relative resilience to control efforts. Here, we describe current knowledge on P. vivax population genetic structure, its relevance to understanding transmission patterns and relapse and how this information can inform malaria control and elimination programmes. PMID:25891915

Accounting for Space—Quantification of Cell-To-Cell Transmission Kinetics Using Virus Dynamics Models.

PubMed

Kumberger, Peter; Durso-Cain, Karina; Uprichard, Susan L; Dahari, Harel; Graw, Frederik

2018-04-17

Mathematical models based on ordinary differential equations (ODE) that describe the population dynamics of viruses and infected cells have been an essential tool to characterize and quantify viral infection dynamics. Although an important aspect of viral infection is the dynamics of viral spread, which includes transmission by cell-free virions and direct cell-to-cell transmission, models used so far ignored cell-to-cell transmission completely, or accounted for this process by simple mass-action kinetics between infected and uninfected cells. In this study, we show that the simple mass-action approach falls short when describing viral spread in a spatially-defined environment. Using simulated data, we present a model extension that allows correct quantification of cell-to-cell transmission dynamics within a monolayer of cells. By considering the decreasing proportion of cells that can contribute to cell-to-cell spread with progressing infection, our extension accounts for the transmission dynamics on a single cell level while still remaining applicable to standard population-based experimental measurements. While the ability to infer the proportion of cells infected by either of the transmission modes depends on the viral diffusion rate, the improved estimates obtained using our novel approach emphasize the need to correctly account for spatial aspects when analyzing viral spread.

Dynamic analysis of spiral bevel and hypoid gears with high-order transmission errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, J. J.; Shi, Z. H.; Zhang, H.; Li, T. X.; Nie, S. W.; Wei, B. Y.

2018-03-01

A new gear surface modification methodology based on curvature synthesis is proposed in this study to improve the transmission performance. The generated high-order transmission error (TE) for spiral bevel and hypoid gears is proved to reduce the vibration of geared-rotor system. The method is comprised of the following steps: Firstly, the fully conjugate gear surfaces with pinion flank modified according to the predesigned relative transmission movement are established based on curvature correction. Secondly, a 14-DOF geared-rotor system model considering backlash nonlinearity is used to evaluate the effect of different orders of TE on the dynamic performance a hypoid gear transmission system. For case study, numerical simulation is performed to illustrate the dynamic response of hypoid gear pair with parabolic, fourth-order and sixth-order transmission error derived. The results show that the parabolic TE curve has higher peak to peak amplitude compared to the other two types of TE. Thus, the excited dynamic response also shows larger amplitude at response peaks. Dynamic responses excited by fourth and sixth order TE also demonstrate distinct response components due to their different TE period which is expected to generate different sound quality or other acoustic characteristics.

Open-source framework for power system transmission and distribution dynamics co-simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, Renke; Fan, Rui; Daily, Jeff

The promise of the smart grid entails more interactions between the transmission and distribution networks, and there is an immediate need for tools to provide the comprehensive modelling and simulation required to integrate operations at both transmission and distribution levels. Existing electromagnetic transient simulators can perform simulations with integration of transmission and distribution systems, but the computational burden is high for large-scale system analysis. For transient stability analysis, currently there are only separate tools for simulating transient dynamics of the transmission and distribution systems. In this paper, we introduce an open source co-simulation framework “Framework for Network Co-Simulation” (FNCS), togethermore » with the decoupled simulation approach that links existing transmission and distribution dynamic simulators through FNCS. FNCS is a middleware interface and framework that manages the interaction and synchronization of the transmission and distribution simulators. Preliminary testing results show the validity and capability of the proposed open-source co-simulation framework and the decoupled co-simulation methodology.« less

Dynamics of Multistage Gear Transmission with Effects of Gearbox Vibrations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choy, F. K.; Tu, Y. K.; Zakrajsek, J. J.; Townsend, Dennis P.

1990-01-01

A comprehensive approach is presented in analyzing the dynamic behavior of multistage gear transmission systems with the effects of gearbox induced vibrations and mass imbalances of the rotor. The modal method, with undamped frequencies and planar mode shapes, is used to reduce the degrees of freedom of the gear system for time-transient dynamic analysis. Both the lateral and torsional vibration modes of each rotor-bearing-gear stage as well as the interstage vibrational characteristics are coupled together through localized gear mesh tooth interactions. In addition, gearbox vibrations are also coupled to the rotor-bearing-gear system dynamics through bearing support forces between the rotor and the gearbox. Transient and steady state dynamics of lateral and torsional vibrations of the geared system are examined in both time and frequency domains to develop interpretations of the overall modal dynamic characteristics under various operating conditions. A typical three-stage geared system is used as an example. Effects of mass imbalance and gearbox vibrations on the system dynamic behavior are presented in terms of modal excitation functions for both lateral and torsional vibrations. Operational characteristics and conclusions are drawn from the results presented.

Biology as population dynamics: heuristics for transmission risk.

PubMed

Keebler, Daniel; Walwyn, David; Welte, Alex

2013-02-01

Population-type models, accounting for phenomena such as population lifetimes, mixing patterns, recruitment patterns, genetic evolution and environmental conditions, can be usefully applied to the biology of HIV infection and viral replication. A simple dynamic model can explore the effect of a vaccine-like stimulus on the mortality and infectiousness, which formally looks like fertility, of invading virions; the mortality of freshly infected cells; and the availability of target cells, all of which impact on the probability of infection. Variations on this model could capture the importance of the timing and duration of different key events in viral transmission, and hence be applied to questions of mucosal immunology. The dynamical insights and assumptions of such models are compatible with the continuum of between- and within-individual risks in sexual violence and may be helpful in making sense of the sparse data available on the association between HIV transmission and sexual violence. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Vector-virus interactions and transmission dynamics of West Nile virus.

PubMed

Ciota, Alexander T; Kramer, Laura D

2013-12-09

West Nile virus (WNV; Flavivirus; Flaviviridae) is the cause of the most widespread arthropod-borne viral disease in the world and the largest outbreak of neuroinvasive disease ever observed. Mosquito-borne outbreaks are influenced by intrinsic (e.g., vector and viral genetics, vector and host competence, vector life-history traits) and extrinsic (e.g., temperature, rainfall, human land use) factors that affect virus activity and mosquito biology in complex ways. The concept of vectorial capacity integrates these factors to address interactions of the virus with the arthropod host, leading to a clearer understanding of their complex interrelationships, how they affect transmission of vector-borne disease, and how they impact human health. Vertebrate factors including host competence, population dynamics, and immune status also affect transmission dynamics. The complexity of these interactions are further exacerbated by the fact that not only can divergent hosts differentially alter the virus, but the virus also can affect both vertebrate and invertebrate hosts in ways that significantly alter patterns of virus transmission. This chapter concentrates on selected components of the virus-vector-vertebrate interrelationship, focusing specifically on how interactions between vector, virus, and environment shape the patterns and intensity of WNV transmission.

Vector-Virus Interactions and Transmission Dynamics of West Nile Virus

PubMed Central

Ciota, Alexander T.; Kramer, Laura D.

2013-01-01

West Nile virus (WNV; Flavivirus; Flaviviridae) is the cause of the most widespread arthropod-borne viral disease in the world and the largest outbreak of neuroinvasive disease ever observed. Mosquito-borne outbreaks are influenced by intrinsic (e.g., vector and viral genetics, vector and host competence, vector life-history traits) and extrinsic (e.g., temperature, rainfall, human land use) factors that affect virus activity and mosquito biology in complex ways. The concept of vectorial capacity integrates these factors to address interactions of the virus with the arthropod host, leading to a clearer understanding of their complex interrelationships, how they affect transmission of vector-borne disease, and how they impact human health. Vertebrate factors including host competence, population dynamics, and immune status also affect transmission dynamics. The complexity of these interactions are further exacerbated by the fact that not only can divergent hosts differentially alter the virus, but the virus also can affect both vertebrate and invertebrate hosts in ways that significantly alter patterns of virus transmission. This chapter concentrates on selected components of the virus-vector-vertebrate interrelationship, focusing specifically on how interactions between vector, virus, and environment shape the patterns and intensity of WNV transmission. PMID:24351794

Virus dynamics in the presence of synaptic transmission

PubMed Central

Komarova, Natalia L.; Wodarz, Dominik

2014-01-01

Traditionally, virus dynamics models consider populations of infected and target cells, and a population of free virus that can infect susceptible cells. In recent years, however, it has become clear that direct cell-to-cell transmission can also play an important role for the in vivo spread of viruses, especially retroviruses such as human T lymphotropic virus-1 (HTLV-1) and Human immundeficeincy virus (HIV). Such cell-to-cell transmission is thought to occur through the formation of virological synapses that are formed between an infected source cell and a susceptible target cell. Here we formulate and analyze a class of virus dynamics models that include such cell-cell synaptic transmission. We explore different ”strategies” of the virus defined by the number of viruses passed per synapse, and determine how the choice of strategy influences the basic reproductive ratio, R0, of the virus and thus its ability to establish a persistent infection. We show that depending on specific assumptions about the viral kinetics, strategies with low or intermediate numbers of viruses transferred may correspond to the highest values of R0. We also explore the evolutionary competition of viruses of different strains, which differ by their synaptic strategy, and show that viruses characterized by synaptic strategies with the highest R0 win the evolutionary competition and exclude other, inferior, strains. PMID:23357287

Method of transmission of dynamic multibit digital images from micro-unmanned aerial vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrov, E. P.; Kharina, N. L.

2018-01-01

In connection with successful usage of nanotechnologies in remote sensing great attention is paid to the systems in micro-unmanned aerial vehicles (MUAVs) capable to provide high spatial resolution of dynamic multibit digital images (MDI). Limited energy resources on board the MUAV do not allow transferring a large amount of video information in the shortest possible time. It keeps back the broad development of MUAV. The search for methods to shorten the transmission time of dynamic MDIs from MUAV over the radio channel leads to the methods of MDI compression without computational operations onboard the MUAV. The known compression codecs of video information can not be applied because of the limited energy resources. In this paper we propose a method for reducing the transmission time of dynamic MDIs without computational operations and distortions onboard the MUAV. To develop the method a mathematical apparatus of the theory of conditional Markov processes with discrete arguments was used. On its basis a mathematical model for the transformation of the MDI represented by binary images (BI) in the MDI, consisting of groups of neighboring BIs (GBI) transmitted by multiphase (MP) signals, is constructed. The algorithm for multidimensional nonlinear filtering of MP signals is synthesized, realizing the statistical redundancy of the MDI to compensate for the noise stability losses caused by the use of MP signals.

Transmission intensity and drug resistance in malaria population dynamics: implications for climate change.

PubMed

Artzy-Randrup, Yael; Alonso, David; Pascual, Mercedes

2010-10-26

Although the spread of drug resistance and the influence of climate change on malaria are most often considered separately, these factors have the potential to interact through altered levels of transmission intensity. The influence of transmission intensity on the evolution of drug resistance has been addressed in theoretical studies from a population genetics' perspective; less is known however on how epidemiological dynamics at the population level modulates this influence. We ask from a theoretical perspective, whether population dynamics can explain non-trivial, non-monotonic, patterns of treatment failure with transmission intensity, and, if so, under what conditions. We then address the implications of warmer temperatures in an East African highland, where, as in other similar regions at the altitudinal edge of malaria's distribution, there has been a pronounced increase of cases from the 1970s to the 1990s. Our theoretical analyses, with a transmission model that includes different levels of immunity, demonstrate that an increase in transmission beyond a threshold can lead to a decrease in drug resistance, as previously shown, but that a second threshold may occur and lead to the re-establishment of drug resistance. Estimates of the increase in transmission intensity from the 1970s to the 1990s for the Kenyan time series, obtained by fitting the two-stage version of the model with an explicit representation of vector dynamics, suggest that warmer temperatures are likely to have moved the system towards the first threshold, and in so doing, to have promoted the faster spread of drug resistance. Climate change and drug resistance can interact and need not be considered as alternative explanations for trends in disease incidence in this region. Non-monotonic patterns of treatment failure with transmission intensity similar to those described as the 'valley phenomenon' for Uganda can result from epidemiological dynamics but under poorly understood assumptions.

Dynamic analysis of flexible gear trains/transmissions - An automated approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Amirouche, F. M. L.; Shareef, N. H.; Xie, M.

1992-01-01

In this paper an automated algorithmic method is presented for the dynamic analysis of geared trains/transmissions. These are treated as a system of interconnected flexible bodies. The procedure developed explains the switching of constraints with time as a result of the change in the contacting areas at the gear teeth. The elastic behavior of the system is studied through the employment of three-dimensional isoparametric elements having six degrees-of-freedom at each node. The contact between the bodies is assumed at the various nodes, which could be either a line or a plane. The kinematical expressions, together with the equations of motion using Kane's method, strain energy concepts, are presented in a matrix form suitable for computer implementation. The constraint Jacobian matrices are generated automatically based on the contact information between the bodies. The concepts of the relative velocity at the contacting points at the tooth pairs and the subsequent use of the transmission ratios in the analysis is presented.

Dynamics of climate-based malaria transmission model with age-structured human population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Addawe, Joel; Pajimola, Aprimelle Kris

2016-10-01

In this paper, we proposed to study the dynamics of malaria transmission with periodic birth rate of the vector and an age-structure for the human population. The human population is divided into two compartments: pre-school (0-5 years) and the rest of the human population. We showed the existence of a disease-free equilibrium point. Using published epidemiological parameters, we use numerical simulations to show potential effect of climate change in the dynamics of age-structured malaria transmission. Numerical simulations suggest that there exists an asymptotically attractive solution that is positive and periodic.

Highly dynamic animal contact network and implications on disease transmission

PubMed Central

Chen, Shi; White, Brad J.; Sanderson, Michael W.; Amrine, David E.; Ilany, Amiyaal; Lanzas, Cristina

2014-01-01

Contact patterns among hosts are considered as one of the most critical factors contributing to unequal pathogen transmission. Consequently, networks have been widely applied in infectious disease modeling. However most studies assume static network structure due to lack of accurate observation and appropriate analytic tools. In this study we used high temporal and spatial resolution animal position data to construct a high-resolution contact network relevant to infectious disease transmission. The animal contact network aggregated at hourly level was highly variable and dynamic within and between days, for both network structure (network degree distribution) and individual rank of degree distribution in the network (degree order). We integrated network degree distribution and degree order heterogeneities with a commonly used contact-based, directly transmitted disease model to quantify the effect of these two sources of heterogeneity on the infectious disease dynamics. Four conditions were simulated based on the combination of these two heterogeneities. Simulation results indicated that disease dynamics and individual contribution to new infections varied substantially among these four conditions under both parameter settings. Changes in the contact network had a greater effect on disease dynamics for pathogens with smaller basic reproduction number (i.e. R0 < 2). PMID:24667241

Broad patterns in domestic vector-borne Trypanosoma cruzi transmission dynamics: synanthropic animals and vector control.

PubMed

Peterson, Jennifer K; Bartsch, Sarah M; Lee, Bruce Y; Dobson, Andrew P

2015-10-22

Chagas disease (caused by Trypanosoma cruzi) is the most important neglected tropical disease (NTD) in Latin America, infecting an estimated 5.7 million people in the 21 countries where it is endemic. It is one of the NTDs targeted for control and elimination by the 2020 London Declaration goals, with the first goal being to interrupt intra-domiciliary vector-borne T. cruzi transmission. A key question in domestic T. cruzi transmission is the role that synanthropic animals play in T. cruzi transmission to humans. Here, we ask, (1) do synanthropic animals need to be targeted in Chagas disease prevention policies?, and (2) how does the presence of animals affect the efficacy of vector control? We developed a simple mathematical model to simulate domestic vector-borne T. cruzi transmission and to specifically examine the interaction between the presence of synanthropic animals and effects of vector control. We used the model to explore how the interactions between triatomine bugs, humans and animals impact the number and proportion of T. cruzi-infected bugs and humans. We then examined how T. cruzi dynamics change when control measures targeting vector abundance are introduced into the system. We found that the presence of synanthropic animals slows the speed of T. cruzi transmission to humans, and increases the sensitivity of T. cruzi transmission dynamics to vector control measures at comparable triatomine carrying capacities. However, T. cruzi transmission is amplified when triatomine carrying capacity increases with the abundance of syntathoropic hosts. Our results suggest that in domestic T. cruzi transmission scenarios where no vector control measures are in place, a reduction in synanthropic animals may slow T. cruzi transmission to humans, but it would not completely eliminate transmission. To reach the 2020 goal of interrupting intra-domiciliary T. cruzi transmission, it is critical to target vector populations. Additionally, where vector control measures

Incorporating heterogeneity into the transmission dynamics of a waterborne disease model.

PubMed

Collins, O C; Govinder, K S

2014-09-07

We formulate a mathematical model that captures the essential dynamics of waterborne disease transmission to study the effects of heterogeneity on the spread of the disease. The effects of heterogeneity on some important mathematical features of the model such as the basic reproduction number, type reproduction number and final outbreak size are analysed accordingly. We conduct a real-world application of this model by using it to investigate the heterogeneity in transmission in the recent cholera outbreak in Haiti. By evaluating the measure of heterogeneity between the administrative departments in Haiti, we discover a significant difference in the dynamics of the cholera outbreak between the departments. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The dynamics, transmission, and population impacts of avian malaria in native hawaiian birds: A modeling approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Samuel, M.D.; Hobbelen, P.H.F.; Decastro, F.; Ahumada, J.A.; Lapointe, D.A.; Atkinson, C.T.; Woodworth, B.L.; Hart, P.J.; Duffy, D.C.

2011-01-01

We developed an epidemiological model of avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum) across an altitudinal gradient on the island of Hawaii that includes the dynamics of the host, vector, and parasite. This introduced mosquito-borne disease is hypothesized to have contributed to extinctions and major shifts in the altitudinal distribution of highly susceptible native forest birds. Our goal was to better understand how biotic and abiotic factors influence the intensity of malaria transmission and impact on susceptible populations of native Hawaiian forest birds. Our model illustrates key patterns in the malaria-forest bird system: high malaria transmission in low-elevation forests with minor seasonal or annual variation in infection;episodic transmission in mid-elevation forests with site-to-site, seasonal, and annual variation depending on mosquito dynamics;and disease refugia in high-elevation forests with only slight risk of infection during summer. These infection patterns are driven by temperature and rainfall effects on parasite incubation period and mosquito dynamics across an elevational gradient and the availability of larval habitat, especially in mid-elevation forests. The results from our model suggest that disease is likely a key factor in causing population decline or restricting the distribution of many susceptible Hawaiian species and preventing the recovery of other vulnerable species. The model also provides a framework for the evaluation of factors influencing disease transmission and alternative disease control programs, and to evaluate the impact of climate change on disease cycles and bird populations. ??2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

Environmental transmission of Mycobacterium ulcerans drives dynamics of Buruli ulcer in endemic regions of Cameroon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garchitorena, Andrés; Ngonghala, Calistus N.; Texier, Gaëtan; Landier, Jordi; Eyangoh, Sara; Bonds, Matthew H.; Guégan, Jean-François; Roche, Benjamin

2015-12-01

Buruli Ulcer is a devastating skin disease caused by the pathogen Mycobacterium ulcerans. Emergence and distribution of Buruli ulcer cases is clearly linked to aquatic ecosystems, but the specific route of transmission of M. ulcerans to humans remains unclear. Relying on the most detailed field data in space and time on M. ulcerans and Buruli ulcer available today, we assess the relative contribution of two potential transmission routes -environmental and water bug transmission- to the dynamics of Buruli ulcer in two endemic regions of Cameroon. The temporal dynamics of Buruli ulcer incidence are explained by estimating rates of different routes of transmission in mathematical models. Independently, we also estimate statistical models of the different transmission pathways on the spatial distribution of Buruli ulcer. The results of these two independent approaches are corroborative and suggest that environmental transmission pathways explain the temporal and spatial patterns of Buruli ulcer in our endemic areas better than the water bug transmission.

Dynamics of Pertussis Transmission in the United States

PubMed Central

Magpantay, F. M. G.; Rohani, P.

2015-01-01

Past patterns of infectious disease transmission set the stage on which modern epidemiologic dynamics are played out. Here, we present a comprehensive account of pertussis (whooping cough) transmission in the United States during the early vaccine era. We analyzed recently digitized weekly incidence records from Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports from 1938 to 1955, when the whole-cell pertussis vaccine was rolled out, and related them to contemporary patterns of transmission and resurgence documented in monthly incidence data from the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System. We found that, during the early vaccine era, pertussis epidemics in US states could be categorized as 1) annual, 2) initially annual and later multiennial, or 3) multiennial. States with predominantly annual cycles tended to have higher per capita birth rates, more household crowding, more children per family, and lower rates of school attendance than the states with multiennial cycles. Additionally, states that exhibited annual epidemics during 1938–1955 have had the highest recent (2001–2010) incidence, while those states that transitioned from annual cycles to multiennial cycles have had relatively low recent incidence. Our study provides an extensive picture of pertussis epidemiology in the United States dating back to the onset of vaccination, a back-story that could aid epidemiologists in understanding contemporary transmission patterns. PMID:26022662

Evolution and Use of Dynamic Transmission Models for Measles and Rubella Risk and Policy Analysis.

PubMed

Thompson, Kimberly M

2016-07-01

The devastation caused by periodic measles outbreaks motivated efforts over more than a century to mathematically model measles disease and transmission. Following the identification of rubella, which similarly presents with fever and rash and causes congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) in infants born to women first infected with rubella early in pregnancy, modelers also began to characterize rubella disease and transmission. Despite the relatively large literature, no comprehensive review to date provides an overview of dynamic transmission models for measles and rubella developed to support risk and policy analysis. This systematic review of the literature identifies quantitative measles and/or rubella dynamic transmission models and characterizes key insights relevant for prospective modeling efforts. Overall, measles and rubella represent some of the relatively simplest viruses to model due to their ability to impact only humans and the apparent life-long immunity that follows survival of infection and/or protection by vaccination, although complexities arise due to maternal antibodies and heterogeneity in mixing and some models considered potential waning immunity and reinfection. This review finds significant underreporting of measles and rubella infections and widespread recognition of the importance of achieving and maintaining high population immunity to stop and prevent measles and rubella transmission. The significantly lower transmissibility of rubella compared to measles implies that all countries could eliminate rubella and CRS by using combination of measles- and rubella-containing vaccines (MRCVs) as they strive to meet regional measles elimination goals, which leads to the recommendation of changing the formulation of national measles-containing vaccines from measles only to MRCV as the standard of care. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Measuring the transmission dynamics of a sexually transmitted disease

PubMed Central

Ryder, Jonathan J.; Webberley, K. Mary; Boots, Michael; Knell, Robert J.

2005-01-01

Sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) occur throughout the animal kingdom and are generally thought to affect host population dynamics and evolution very differently from other directly transmitted infectious diseases. In particular, STDs are not thought to have threshold densities for persistence or to be able to regulate host population density independently; they may also have the potential to cause host extinction. However, these expectations follow from a theory that assumes that the rate of STD spread depends on the proportion (rather than the density) of individuals infected in a population. We show here that this key assumption (“frequency dependence”), which has not previously been tested in an animal STD system, is invalid in a simple and general experimental model. Transmission of an STD in the two-spot ladybird depended more on the density of infected individuals in the study population than on their frequency. We argue that, in this system, and in many other animal STDs in which population density affects sexual contact rate, population dynamics may exhibit some characteristics that are normally reserved for diseases with density-dependent transmission. PMID:16204382

Dynamics of tuberculosis transmission with exogenous reinfections and endogenous reactivation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khajanchi, Subhas; Das, Dhiraj Kumar; Kar, Tapan Kumar

2018-05-01

We propose and analyze a mathematical model for tuberculosis (TB) transmission to study the role of exogenous reinfection and endogenous reactivation. The model exhibits two equilibria: a disease free and an endemic equilibria. We observe that the TB model exhibits transcritical bifurcation when basic reproduction number R0 = 1. Our results demonstrate that the disease transmission rate β and exogenous reinfection rate α plays an important role to change the qualitative dynamics of TB. The disease transmission rate β give rises to the possibility of backward bifurcation for R0 < 1, and hence the existence of multiple endemic equilibria one of which is stable and another one is unstable. Our analysis suggests that R0 < 1 may not be sufficient to completely eliminate the disease. We also investigate that our TB transmission model undergoes Hopf-bifurcation with respect to the contact rate β and the exogenous reinfection rate α. We conducted some numerical simulations to support our analytical findings.

The Characteristics of Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Transmission Dynamics in South Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Yunhwan; Lee, Sunmi; Chu, Chaeshin; Choe, Seoyun; Hong, Saeme; Shin, Youngseo

2016-02-01

The outbreak of Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) was one of the major events in South Korea in 2015. In particular, this study pays attention to formulating a mathematical model for MERS transmission dynamics and estimating transmission rates. Incidence data of MERS-CoV from the government authority was analyzed for the first aim and a mathematical model was built and analyzed for the second aim of the study. A mathematical model for MERS-CoV transmission dynamics is used to estimate the transmission rates in two periods due to the implementation of intensive interventions. Using the estimates of the transmission rates, the basic reproduction number was estimated in two periods. Due to the superspreader, the basic reproduction number was very large in the first period; however, the basic reproduction number of the second period has reduced significantly after intensive interventions. It turned out to be the intensive isolation and quarantine interventions that were the most critical factors that prevented the spread of the MERS outbreak. The results are expected to be useful to devise more efficient intervention strategies in the future.

Chancroid transmission dynamics: a mathematical modeling approach.

PubMed

Bhunu, C P; Mushayabasa, S

2011-12-01

Mathematical models have long been used to better understand disease transmission dynamics and how to effectively control them. Here, a chancroid infection model is presented and analyzed. The disease-free equilibrium is shown to be globally asymptotically stable when the reproduction number is less than unity. High levels of treatment are shown to reduce the reproduction number suggesting that treatment has the potential to control chancroid infections in any given community. This result is also supported by numerical simulations which show a decline in chancroid cases whenever the reproduction number is less than unity.

Modeling the Epidemiology of Cholera to Prevent Disease Transmission in Developing Countries

PubMed Central

MUKANDAVIRE, ZINDOGA; MORRIS, J. GLENN

2015-01-01

Cholera remains an important global cause of morbidity and mortality, which is capable of causing periodic epidemic disease. A number of mathematical models have been developed to help in understanding the dynamics of cholera outbreaks and for use as a tool in planning interventions, including vaccination campaigns. We have explored the utility of models in assessing the spread of cholera in the recent epidemics in Zimbabwe and Haiti. In both instances, a mathematical model was formulated and fitted to cumulative cholera cases to estimate the basic reproductive number ℜ0, and the partial reproductive numbers reflecting potential differences in environmental-to-human versus human-to-human transmission were quantified. In Zimbabwe, estimated ℜ0 for the epidemic using aggregated data at the national level was 1.15; in Haiti, it was 1.55. However, when calculated at a provincial/departmental level, estimated basic reproductive numbers were highly heterogeneous, with a range of 1.11 to 2.72 in Zimbabwe and 1.06 to 2.63 in Haiti. Our models suggest that the underlying patterns of cholera transmission varied widely from region to region, with a corresponding variation in the amenability of outbreaks to control measures such as immunization. These data underscore the heterogeneity of transmission dynamics, potentially linked to differences in environment, socio-economic conditions, and cultural practices. They also highlight the potential utility of these types of models in guiding development of public health intervention strategies. PMID:26185087

Plasmodium vivax population structure and transmission dynamics in Sabah Malaysia.

PubMed

Abdullah, Noor Rain; Barber, Bridget E; William, Timothy; Norahmad, Nor Azrina; Satsu, Umi Rubiah; Muniandy, Prem Kumar; Ismail, Zakiah; Grigg, Matthew J; Jelip, Jenarun; Piera, Kim; von Seidlein, Lorenz; Yeo, Tsin W; Anstey, Nicholas M; Price, Ric N; Auburn, Sarah

2013-01-01

Despite significant progress in the control of malaria in Malaysia, the complex transmission dynamics of P. vivax continue to challenge national efforts to achieve elimination. To assess the impact of ongoing interventions on P. vivax transmission dynamics in Sabah, we genotyped 9 short tandem repeat markers in a total of 97 isolates (8 recurrences) from across Sabah, with a focus on two districts, Kota Marudu (KM, n = 24) and Kota Kinabalu (KK, n = 21), over a 2 year period. STRUCTURE analysis on the Sabah-wide dataset demonstrated multiple sub-populations. Significant differentiation (F ST  = 0.243) was observed between KM and KK, located just 130 Km apart. Consistent with low endemic transmission, infection complexity was modest in both KM (mean MOI  = 1.38) and KK (mean MOI  = 1.19). However, population diversity remained moderate (H E  = 0.583 in KM and H E  = 0.667 in KK). Temporal trends revealed clonal expansions reflecting epidemic transmission dynamics. The haplotypes of these isolates declined in frequency over time, but persisted at low frequency throughout the study duration. A diverse array of low frequency isolates were detected in both KM and KK, some likely reflecting remnants of previous expansions. In accordance with clonal expansions, high levels of Linkage Disequilibrium (I A (S) >0.5 [P<0.0001] in KK and KM) declined sharply when identical haplotypes were represented once (I A (S)  = 0.07 [P = 0.0076] in KM, and I A (S) = -0.003 [P = 0.606] in KK). All 8 recurrences, likely to be relapses, were homologous to the prior infection. These recurrences may promote the persistence of parasite lineages, sustaining local diversity. In summary, Sabah's shrinking P. vivax population appears to have rendered this low endemic setting vulnerable to epidemic expansions. Migration may play an important role in the introduction of new parasite strains leading to epidemic expansions, with important implications for

Plasmodium vivax Population Structure and Transmission Dynamics in Sabah Malaysia

PubMed Central

Abdullah, Noor Rain; Barber, Bridget E.; William, Timothy; Norahmad, Nor Azrina; Satsu, Umi Rubiah; Muniandy, Prem Kumar; Ismail, Zakiah; Grigg, Matthew J.; Jelip, Jenarun; Piera, Kim; von Seidlein, Lorenz; Yeo, Tsin W.; Anstey, Nicholas M.; Price, Ric N.; Auburn, Sarah

2013-01-01

Despite significant progress in the control of malaria in Malaysia, the complex transmission dynamics of P. vivax continue to challenge national efforts to achieve elimination. To assess the impact of ongoing interventions on P. vivax transmission dynamics in Sabah, we genotyped 9 short tandem repeat markers in a total of 97 isolates (8 recurrences) from across Sabah, with a focus on two districts, Kota Marudu (KM, n = 24) and Kota Kinabalu (KK, n = 21), over a 2 year period. STRUCTURE analysis on the Sabah-wide dataset demonstrated multiple sub-populations. Significant differentiation (F ST  = 0.243) was observed between KM and KK, located just 130 Km apart. Consistent with low endemic transmission, infection complexity was modest in both KM (mean MOI  = 1.38) and KK (mean MOI  = 1.19). However, population diversity remained moderate (H E  = 0.583 in KM and H E  = 0.667 in KK). Temporal trends revealed clonal expansions reflecting epidemic transmission dynamics. The haplotypes of these isolates declined in frequency over time, but persisted at low frequency throughout the study duration. A diverse array of low frequency isolates were detected in both KM and KK, some likely reflecting remnants of previous expansions. In accordance with clonal expansions, high levels of Linkage Disequilibrium (I A S >0.5 [P<0.0001] in KK and KM) declined sharply when identical haplotypes were represented once (I A S  = 0.07 [P = 0.0076] in KM, and I A S = -0.003 [P = 0.606] in KK). All 8 recurrences, likely to be relapses, were homologous to the prior infection. These recurrences may promote the persistence of parasite lineages, sustaining local diversity. In summary, Sabah's shrinking P. vivax population appears to have rendered this low endemic setting vulnerable to epidemic expansions. Migration may play an important role in the introduction of new parasite strains leading to epidemic expansions, with important implications for malaria

A transmission-grating-modulated pump-probe absorption spectroscopy and demonstration of diffusion dynamics of photoexcited carriers in bulk intrinsic GaAs film.

PubMed

Chen, Ke; Wang, Wenfang; Chen, Jianming; Wen, Jinhui; Lai, Tianshu

2012-02-13

A transmission-grating-modulated time-resolved pump-probe absorption spectroscopy is developed and formularized. The spectroscopy combines normal time-resolved pump-probe absorption spectroscopy with a binary transmission grating, is sensitive to the spatiotemporal evolution of photoinjected carriers, and has extensive applicability in the study of diffusion transport dynamics of photoinjected carriers. This spectroscopy has many advantages over reported optical methods to measure diffusion dynamics, such as simple experimental setup and operation, and high detection sensitivity. The measurement of diffusion dynamics is demonstrated on bulk intrinsic GaAs films. A carrier density dependence of carrier diffusion coefficient is obtained and agrees well with reported results.

Multi-body Dynamic Contact Analysis Tool for Transmission Design

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-04-01

frequencies were computed in COSMIC NASTRAN, and were validated against the published experimental modal analysis [17]. • Using assumed time domain... modal superposition. • Results from the structural analysis (mode shapes or forced response) were converted into IDEAS universal format (dataset 55...ARMY RESEARCH LABORATORY Multi-body Dynamic Contact Analysis Tool for Transmission Design SBIR Phase II Final Report by

Tackling the Challenges of Dynamic Experiments Using Liquid-Cell Transmission Electron Microscopy.

PubMed

Parent, Lucas R; Bakalis, Evangelos; Proetto, Maria; Li, Yiwen; Park, Chiwoo; Zerbetto, Francesco; Gianneschi, Nathan C

2018-01-16

Revolutions in science and engineering frequently result from the development, and wide adoption, of a new, powerful characterization or imaging technique. Beginning with the first glass lenses and telescopes in astronomy, to the development of visual-light microscopy, staining techniques, confocal microscopy, and fluorescence super-resolution microscopy in biology, and most recently aberration-corrected, cryogenic, and ultrafast (4D) electron microscopy, X-ray microscopy, and scanning probe microscopy in nanoscience. Through these developments, our perception and understanding of the physical nature of matter at length-scales beyond ordinary perception have been fundamentally transformed. Despite this progression in microscopy, techniques for observing nanoscale chemical processes and solvated/hydrated systems are limited, as the necessary spatial and temporal resolution presents significant technical challenges. However, the standard reliance on indirect or bulk phase characterization of nanoscale samples in liquids is undergoing a shift in recent times with the realization ( Williamson et al. Nat. Mater . 2003 , 2 , 532 - 536 ) of liquid-cell (scanning) transmission electron microscopy, LC(S)TEM, where picoliters of solution are hermetically sealed between electron-transparent "windows," which can be directly imaged or videoed at the nanoscale using conventional transmission electron microscopes. This Account seeks to open a discussion on the topic of standardizing strategies for conducting imaging experiments with a view to characterizing dynamics and motion of nanoscale materials. This is a challenge that could be described by critics and proponents alike, as analogous to doing chemistry in a lightning storm; where the nature of the solution, the nanomaterial, and the dynamic behaviors are all potentially subject to artifactual influence by the very act of our observation.

Early animal farming and zoonotic disease dynamics: modelling brucellosis transmission in Neolithic goat populations.

PubMed

Fournié, Guillaume; Pfeiffer, Dirk U; Bendrey, Robin

2017-02-01

Zoonotic pathogens are frequently hypothesized as emerging with the origins of farming, but evidence of this is elusive in the archaeological records. To explore the potential impact of animal domestication on zoonotic disease dynamics and human infection risk, we developed a model simulating the transmission of Brucella melitensis within early domestic goat populations. The model was informed by archaeological data describing goat populations in Neolithic settlements in the Fertile Crescent, and used to assess the potential of these populations to sustain the circulation of Brucella . Results show that the pathogen could have been sustained even at low levels of transmission within these domestic goat populations. This resulted from the creation of dense populations and major changes in demographic characteristics. The selective harvesting of young male goats, likely aimed at improving the efficiency of food production, modified the age and sex structure of these populations, increasing the transmission potential of the pathogen within these populations. Probable interactions between Neolithic settlements would have further promoted pathogen maintenance. By fostering conditions suitable for allowing domestic goats to become reservoirs of Brucella melitensis , the early stages of agricultural development were likely to promote the exposure of humans to this pathogen.

Early animal farming and zoonotic disease dynamics: modelling brucellosis transmission in Neolithic goat populations

PubMed Central

Pfeiffer, Dirk U.; Bendrey, Robin

2017-01-01

Zoonotic pathogens are frequently hypothesized as emerging with the origins of farming, but evidence of this is elusive in the archaeological records. To explore the potential impact of animal domestication on zoonotic disease dynamics and human infection risk, we developed a model simulating the transmission of Brucella melitensis within early domestic goat populations. The model was informed by archaeological data describing goat populations in Neolithic settlements in the Fertile Crescent, and used to assess the potential of these populations to sustain the circulation of Brucella. Results show that the pathogen could have been sustained even at low levels of transmission within these domestic goat populations. This resulted from the creation of dense populations and major changes in demographic characteristics. The selective harvesting of young male goats, likely aimed at improving the efficiency of food production, modified the age and sex structure of these populations, increasing the transmission potential of the pathogen within these populations. Probable interactions between Neolithic settlements would have further promoted pathogen maintenance. By fostering conditions suitable for allowing domestic goats to become reservoirs of Brucella melitensis, the early stages of agricultural development were likely to promote the exposure of humans to this pathogen. PMID:28386446

Transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease and intervention effectiveness in Sierra Leone

PubMed Central

Fang, Li-Qun; Yang, Yang; Jiang, Jia-Fu; Yao, Hong-Wu; Kargbo, David; Li, Xin-Lou; Jiang, Bao-Gui; Kargbo, Brima; Tong, Yi-Gang; Wang, Ya-Wei; Liu, Kun; Kamara, Abdul; Dafae, Foday; Kanu, Alex; Jiang, Rui-Ruo; Sun, Ye; Sun, Ruo-Xi; Chen, Wan-Jun; Ma, Mai-Juan; Dean, Natalie E.; Thomas, Harold; Longini, Ira M.; Halloran, M. Elizabeth; Cao, Wu-Chun

2016-01-01

Sierra Leone is the most severely affected country by an unprecedented outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa. Although successfully contained, the transmission dynamics of EVD and the impact of interventions in the country remain unclear. We established a database of confirmed and suspected EVD cases from May 2014 to September 2015 in Sierra Leone and mapped the spatiotemporal distribution of cases at the chiefdom level. A Poisson transmission model revealed that the transmissibility at the chiefdom level, estimated as the average number of secondary infections caused by a patient per week, was reduced by 43% [95% confidence interval (CI): 30%, 52%] after October 2014, when the strategic plan of the United Nations Mission for Emergency Ebola Response was initiated, and by 65% (95% CI: 57%, 71%) after the end of December 2014, when 100% case isolation and safe burials were essentially achieved, both compared with before October 2014. Population density, proximity to Ebola treatment centers, cropland coverage, and atmospheric temperature were associated with EVD transmission. The household secondary attack rate (SAR) was estimated to be 0.059 (95% CI: 0.050, 0.070) for the overall outbreak. The household SAR was reduced by 82%, from 0.093 to 0.017, after the nationwide campaign to achieve 100% case isolation and safe burials had been conducted. This study provides a complete overview of the transmission dynamics of the 2014−2015 EVD outbreak in Sierra Leone at both chiefdom and household levels. The interventions implemented in Sierra Leone seem effective in containing the epidemic, particularly in interrupting household transmission. PMID:27035948

The Transmission Dynamics of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

May, R. M.; Anderson, R. M.

1988-10-01

The paper first reviews data on HIV infections and AIDS disease among homosexual men, heterosexuals, intravenous (IV) drug abusers and children born to infected mothers, in both developed and developing countries. We survey such information as is currently available about the distribution of incubation times that elapse between HIV infection and the appearance of AIDS, about the fraction of those infected with HIV who eventually go on to develop AIDS, about time-dependent patterns of infectiousness and about distributions of rates of acquiring new sexual or needle-sharing partners. With this information, models for the transmission dynamics of HIV are developed, beginning with deliberately oversimplified models and progressing - on the basis of the understanding thus gained - to more complex ones. Where possible, estimates of the model's parameters are derived from the epidemiological data, and predictions are compared with observed trends. We also combine these epidemiological models with demographic considerations to assess the effects that heterosexually-transmitted HIV/AIDS may eventually have on rates of population growth, on age profiles and on associated economic and social indicators, in African and other countries. The degree to which sexual or other habits must change to bring the `basic reproductive rate', R_0, of HIV infections below unity is discussed. We conclude by outlining some research needs, both in the refinement and development of models and in the collection of epidemiological data.

The primary case is not enough: Variation among individuals, groups and social networks modify bacterial transmission dynamics.

PubMed

Keiser, Carl N; Pinter-Wollman, Noa; Ziemba, Michael J; Kothamasu, Krishna S; Pruitt, Jonathan N

2018-03-01

The traits of the primary case of an infectious disease outbreak, and the circumstances for their aetiology, potentially influence the trajectory of transmission dynamics. However, these dynamics likely also depend on the traits of the individuals with whom the primary case interacts. We used the social spider Stegodyphus dumicola to test how the traits of the primary case, group phenotypic composition and group size interact to facilitate the transmission of a GFP-labelled cuticular bacterium. We also compared bacterial transmission across experimentally generated "daisy-chain" vs. "star" networks of social interactions. Finally, we compared social network structure across groups of different sizes. Groups of 10 spiders experienced more bacterial transmission events compared to groups of 30 spiders, regardless of groups' behavioural composition. Groups containing only one bold spider experienced the lowest levels of bacterial transmission regardless of group size. We found no evidence for the traits of the primary case influencing any transmission dynamics. In a second experiment, bacteria were transmitted to more individuals in experimentally induced star networks than in daisy-chains, on which transmission never exceeded three steps. In both experimental network types, transmission success depended jointly on the behavioural traits of the interacting individuals; however, the behavioural traits of the primary case were only important for transmission on star networks. Larger social groups exhibited lower interaction density (i.e. had a low ratio of observed to possible connections) and were more modular, i.e. they had more connections between nodes within a subgroup and fewer connections across subgroups. Thus, larger groups may restrict transmission by forming fewer interactions and by isolating subgroups that interacted with the primary case. These findings suggest that accounting for the traits of single exposed hosts has less power in predicting transmission

Exploring Migratory Dynamics on HIV Transmission: The Case of Mexicans in New York City and Puebla, Mexico

PubMed Central

Guilamo-Ramos, Vincent; McCarthy, Katharine; Muñoz-Laboy, Miguel A.; de Lourdes Rosas López, Maria

2014-01-01

Migration and population movement are increasingly viewed as important factors associated with HIV transmission risk. With growing awareness of the potential impact of migration on HIV transmission, several perspectives have emerged that posit differing dynamics of risk. We considered available data on the role of migration on HIV transmission among Mexican migrants in New York City and Puebla, Mexico. Specifically, we examined 3 distinct models of migratory dynamics of HIV transmission—namely, the structural model, the local contextual model, and the interplay model. In doing so, we reframed current public health perspectives on the role of migration on HIV transmission. PMID:24825203

Complex Dynamics of the Power Transmission Grid (and other Critical Infrastructures)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newman, David

2015-03-01

Our modern societies depend crucially on a web of complex critical infrastructures such as power transmission networks, communication systems, transportation networks and many others. These infrastructure systems display a great number of the characteristic properties of complex systems. Important among these characteristics, they exhibit infrequent large cascading failures that often obey a power law distribution in their probability versus size. This power law behavior suggests that conventional risk analysis does not apply to these systems. It is thought that much of this behavior comes from the dynamical evolution of the system as it ages, is repaired, upgraded, and as the operational rules evolve with human decision making playing an important role in the dynamics. In this talk, infrastructure systems as complex dynamical systems will be introduced and some of their properties explored. The majority of the talk will then be focused on the electric power transmission grid though many of the results can be easily applied to other infrastructures. General properties of the grid will be discussed and results from a dynamical complex systems power transmission model will be compared with real world data. Then we will look at a variety of uses of this type of model. As examples, we will discuss the impact of size and network homogeneity on the grid robustness, the change in risk of failure as generation mix (more distributed vs centralized for example) changes, as well as the effect of operational changes such as the changing the operational risk aversion or grid upgrade strategies. One of the important outcomes from this work is the realization that ``improvements'' in the system components and operational efficiency do not always improve the system robustness, and can in fact greatly increase the risk, when measured as a risk of large failure.

Enhanced model of gear transmission dynamics for condition monitoring applications: Effects of torque, friction and bearing clearance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez-del-Rincon, A.; Garcia, P.; Diez-Ibarbia, A.; de-Juan, A.; Iglesias, M.; Viadero, F.

2017-02-01

Gear transmissions remain as one of the most complex mechanical systems from the point of view of noise and vibration behavior. Research on gear modeling leading to the obtaining of models capable of accurately reproduce the dynamic behavior of real gear transmissions has spread out the last decades. Most of these models, although useful for design stages, often include simplifications that impede their application for condition monitoring purposes. Trying to filling this gap, the model presented in this paper allows us to simulate gear transmission dynamics including most of these features usually neglected by the state of the art models. This work presents a model capable of considering simultaneously the internal excitations due to the variable meshing stiffness (including the coupling among successive tooth pairs in contact, the non-linearity linked with the contacts between surfaces and the dissipative effects), and those excitations consequence of the bearing variable compliance (including clearances or pre-loads). The model can also simulate gear dynamics in a realistic torque dependent scenario. The proposed model combines a hybrid formulation for calculation of meshing forces with a non-linear variable compliance approach for bearings. Meshing forces are obtained by means of a double approach which combines numerical and analytical aspects. The methodology used provides a detailed description of the meshing forces, allowing their calculation even when gear center distance is modified due to shaft and bearing flexibilities, which are unavoidable in real transmissions. On the other hand, forces at bearing level were obtained considering a variable number of supporting rolling elements, depending on the applied load and clearances. Both formulations have been developed and applied to the simulation of the vibration of a sample transmission, focusing the attention on the transmitted load, friction meshing forces and bearing preloads.

Comparative dynamics, seasonality in transmission, and predictability of childhood infections in Mexico

PubMed Central

Mahmud, A. S.; Metcalf, C. J. E.; Grenfell, B. T.

2018-01-01

The seasonality and periodicity of infections, and the mechanisms underlying observed dynamics, can have implications for control efforts. This is particularly true for acute childhood infections. Among these, the dynamics of measles is the best understood and has been extensively studied, most notably in the UK prior to the start of vaccination. Less is known about the dynamics of other childhood diseases, particularly outside Europe and the US. In this paper, we leverage a unique dataset to examine the epidemiology of six childhood infections - measles, mumps, rubella, varicella, scarlet fever and pertussis - across 32 states in Mexico from 1985 to 2007. This dataset provides us with a spatiotemporal probe into the dynamics of six common childhood infections, and allows us to compare them in the same setting over the same time period. We examine three key epidemiological characteristics of these infections – the age profile of infections, spatiotemporal dynamics, and seasonality in transmission - and compare with predictions from existing theory and past findings. Our analysis reveals interesting epidemiological differences between the six pathogens, and variations across space. We find signatures of term time forcing (reduced transmission during the summer) for measles, mumps, rubella, varicella, and scarlet fever; for pertussis, a lack of term time forcing could not be rejected. PMID:27873563

Dynamic vs. static social networks in models of parasite transmission: predicting Cryptosporidium spread in wild lemurs.

PubMed

Springer, Andrea; Kappeler, Peter M; Nunn, Charles L

2017-05-01

Social networks provide an established tool to implement heterogeneous contact structures in epidemiological models. Dynamic temporal changes in contact structure and ranging behaviour of wildlife may impact disease dynamics. A consensus has yet to emerge, however, concerning the conditions in which network dynamics impact model outcomes, as compared to static approximations that average contact rates over longer time periods. Furthermore, as many pathogens can be transmitted both environmentally and via close contact, it is important to investigate the relative influence of both transmission routes in real-world populations. Here, we use empirically derived networks from a population of wild primates, Verreaux's sifakas (Propithecus verreauxi), and simulated networks to investigate pathogen spread in dynamic vs. static social networks. First, we constructed a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered model of Cryptosporidium spread in wild Verreaux's sifakas. We incorporated social and environmental transmission routes and parameterized the model for two different climatic seasons. Second, we used simulated networks and greater variation in epidemiological parameters to investigate the conditions in which dynamic networks produce larger outbreak sizes than static networks. We found that average outbreak size of Cryptosporidium infections in sifakas was larger when the disease was introduced in the dry season than in the wet season, driven by an increase in home range overlap towards the end of the dry season. Regardless of season, dynamic networks always produced larger average outbreak sizes than static networks. Larger outbreaks in dynamic models based on simulated networks occurred especially when the probability of transmission and recovery were low. Variation in tie strength in the dynamic networks also had a major impact on outbreak size, while network modularity had a weaker influence than epidemiological parameters that determine transmission and recovery

Experimental investigation of alternative transmission functions: Quantitative evidence for the importance of nonlinear transmission dynamics in host-parasite systems.

PubMed

Orlofske, Sarah A; Flaxman, Samuel M; Joseph, Maxwell B; Fenton, Andy; Melbourne, Brett A; Johnson, Pieter T J

2018-05-01

Understanding pathogen transmission is crucial for predicting and managing disease. Nonetheless, experimental comparisons of alternative functional forms of transmission remain rare, and those experiments that are conducted are often not designed to test the full range of possible forms. To differentiate among 10 candidate transmission functions, we used a novel experimental design in which we independently varied four factors-duration of exposure, numbers of parasites, numbers of hosts and parasite density-in laboratory infection experiments. We used interactions between amphibian hosts and trematode parasites as a model system and all candidate models incorporated parasite depletion. An additional manipulation involving anaesthesia addressed the effects of host behaviour on transmission form. Across all experiments, nonlinear transmission forms involving either a power law or a negative binomial function were the best-fitting models and consistently outperformed the linear density-dependent and density-independent functions. By testing previously published data for two other host-macroparasite systems, we also found support for the same nonlinear transmission forms. Although manipulations of parasite density are common in transmission studies, the comprehensive set of variables tested in our experiments revealed that variation in density alone was least likely to differentiate among competing transmission functions. Across host-pathogen systems, nonlinear functions may often more accurately represent transmission dynamics and thus provide more realistic predictions for infection. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

Numerical modeling of the transmission dynamics of drug-sensitive and drug-resistant HSV-2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gumel, A. B.

2001-03-01

A competitive finite-difference method will be constructed and used to solve a modified deterministic model for the spread of herpes simplex virus type-2 (HSV-2) within a given population. The model monitors the transmission dynamics and control of drug-sensitive and drug-resistant HSV-2. Unlike the fourth-order Runge-Kutta method (RK4), which fails when the discretization parameters exceed certain values, the novel numerical method to be developed in this paper gives convergent results for all parameter values.

Dynamics of a split torque helicopter transmission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krantz, Timothy L.

1994-06-01

Split torque designs, proposed as alternatives to traditional planetary designs for helicopter main rotor transmissions, can save weight and be more reliable than traditional designs. This report presents the results of an analytical study of the system dynamics and performance of a split torque gearbox that uses a balance beam mechanism for load sharing. The Lagrange method was applied to develop a system of equations of motion. The mathematical model includes time-varying gear mesh stiffness, friction, and manufacturing errors. Cornell's method for calculating the stiffness of spur gear teeth was extended and applied to helical gears. The phenomenon of sidebands spaced at shaft frequencies about gear mesh fundamental frequencies was simulated by modeling total composite gear errors as sinusoid functions. Although the gearbox has symmetric geometry, the loads and motions of the two power paths differ. Friction must be considered to properly evaluate the balance beam mechanism. For the design studied, the balance beam is not an effective device for load sharing unless the coefficient of friction is less than 0.003. The complete system stiffness as represented by the stiffness matrix used in this analysis must be considered to precisely determine the optimal tooth indexing position.

How robust are the natural history parameters used in chlamydia transmission dynamic models? A systematic review.

PubMed

Davies, Bethan; Anderson, Sarah-Jane; Turner, Katy M E; Ward, Helen

2014-01-30

Transmission dynamic models linked to economic analyses often form part of the decision making process when introducing new chlamydia screening interventions. Outputs from these transmission dynamic models can vary depending on the values of the parameters used to describe the infection. Therefore these values can have an important influence on policy and resource allocation. The risk of progression from infection to pelvic inflammatory disease has been extensively studied but the parameters which govern the transmission dynamics are frequently neglected. We conducted a systematic review of transmission dynamic models linked to economic analyses of chlamydia screening interventions to critically assess the source and variability of the proportion of infections that are asymptomatic, the duration of infection and the transmission probability. We identified nine relevant studies in Pubmed, Embase and the Cochrane database. We found that there is a wide variation in their natural history parameters, including an absolute difference in the proportion of asymptomatic infections of 25% in women and 75% in men, a six-fold difference in the duration of asymptomatic infection and a four-fold difference in the per act transmission probability. We consider that much of this variation can be explained by a lack of consensus in the literature. We found that a significant proportion of parameter values were referenced back to the early chlamydia literature, before the introduction of nucleic acid modes of diagnosis and the widespread testing of asymptomatic individuals. In conclusion, authors should use high quality contemporary evidence to inform their parameter values, clearly document their assumptions and make appropriate use of sensitivity analysis. This will help to make models more transparent and increase their utility to policy makers.

Quantifying Transmission Investment in Malaria Parasites

PubMed Central

Greischar, Megan A.; Mideo, Nicole; Read, Andrew F.; Bjørnstad, Ottar N.

2016-01-01

Many microparasites infect new hosts with specialized life stages, requiring a subset of the parasite population to forgo proliferation and develop into transmission forms. Transmission stage production influences infectivity, host exploitation, and the impact of medical interventions like drug treatment. Predicting how parasites will respond to public health efforts on both epidemiological and evolutionary timescales requires understanding transmission strategies. These strategies can rarely be observed directly and must typically be inferred from infection dynamics. Using malaria as a case study, we test previously described methods for inferring transmission stage investment against simulated data generated with a model of within-host infection dynamics, where the true transmission investment is known. We show that existing methods are inadequate and potentially very misleading. The key difficulty lies in separating transmission stages produced by different generations of parasites. We develop a new approach that performs much better on simulated data. Applying this approach to real data from mice infected with a single Plasmodium chabaudi strain, we estimate that transmission investment varies from zero to 20%, with evidence for variable investment over time in some hosts, but not others. These patterns suggest that, even in experimental infections where host genetics and other environmental factors are controlled, parasites may exhibit remarkably different patterns of transmission investment. PMID:26890485

Analysis of longitudinal multivariate outcome data from couples cohort studies: application to HPV transmission dynamics

PubMed Central

Kong, Xiangrong; Wang, Mei-Cheng; Gray, Ronald

2014-01-01

We consider a specific situation of correlated data where multiple outcomes are repeatedly measured on each member of a couple. Such multivariate longitudinal data from couples may exhibit multi-faceted correlations which can be further complicated if there are polygamous partnerships. An example is data from cohort studies on human papillomavirus (HPV) transmission dynamics in heterosexual couples. HPV is a common sexually transmitted disease with 14 known oncogenic types causing anogenital cancers. The binary outcomes on the multiple types measured in couples over time may introduce inter-type, intra-couple, and temporal correlations. Simple analysis using generalized estimating equations or random effects models lacks interpretability and cannot fully utilize the available information. We developed a hybrid modeling strategy using Markov transition models together with pairwise composite likelihood for analyzing such data. The method can be used to identify risk factors associated with HPV transmission and persistence, estimate difference in risks between male-to-female and female-to-male HPV transmission, compare type-specific transmission risks within couples, and characterize the inter-type and intra-couple associations. Applying the method to HPV couple data collected in a Ugandan male circumcision (MC) trial, we assessed the effect of MC and the role of gender on risks of HPV transmission and persistence. PMID:26195849

Understanding the transmission dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus using multiple time series and nested models.

PubMed

White, L J; Mandl, J N; Gomes, M G M; Bodley-Tickell, A T; Cane, P A; Perez-Brena, P; Aguilar, J C; Siqueira, M M; Portes, S A; Straliotto, S M; Waris, M; Nokes, D J; Medley, G F

2007-09-01

The nature and role of re-infection and partial immunity are likely to be important determinants of the transmission dynamics of human respiratory syncytial virus (hRSV). We propose a single model structure that captures four possible host responses to infection and subsequent reinfection: partial susceptibility, altered infection duration, reduced infectiousness and temporary immunity (which might be partial). The magnitude of these responses is determined by four homotopy parameters, and by setting some of these parameters to extreme values we generate a set of eight nested, deterministic transmission models. In order to investigate hRSV transmission dynamics, we applied these models to incidence data from eight international locations. Seasonality is included as cyclic variation in transmission. Parameters associated with the natural history of the infection were assumed to be independent of geographic location, while others, such as those associated with seasonality, were assumed location specific. Models incorporating either of the two extreme assumptions for immunity (none or solid and lifelong) were unable to reproduce the observed dynamics. Model fits with either waning or partial immunity to disease or both were visually comparable. The best fitting structure was a lifelong partial immunity to both disease and infection. Observed patterns were reproduced by stochastic simulations using the parameter values estimated from the deterministic models.

Analysis of Influenza and RSV dynamics in the community using a ‘Local Transmission Zone’ approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almogy, Gal; Stone, Lewi; Bernevig, B. Andrei; Wolf, Dana G.; Dorozko, Marina; Moses, Allon E.; Nir-Paz, Ran

2017-02-01

Understanding the dynamics of pathogen spread within urban areas is critical for the effective prevention and containment of communicable diseases. At these relatively small geographic scales, short-distance interactions and tightly knit sub-networks dominate the dynamics of pathogen transmission; yet, the effective boundaries of these micro-scale groups are generally not known and often ignored. Using clinical test results from hospital admitted patients we analyze the spatio-temporal distribution of Influenza Like Illness (ILI) in the city of Jerusalem over a period of three winter seasons. We demonstrate that this urban area is not a single, perfectly mixed ecology, but is in fact comprised of a set of more basic, relatively independent pathogen transmission units, which we term here Local Transmission Zones, LTZs. By identifying these LTZs, and using the dynamic pathogen-content information contained within them, we are able to differentiate between disease-causes at the individual patient level often with near-perfect predictive accuracy.

On the dynamic response of pressure transmission lines in the research of helium-charged free piston Stirling engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, Eric L.; Dudenhoefer, James E.

1989-01-01

In free piston Stirling engine research the integrity of both amplitude and phase of the dynamic pressure measurements is critical to the characterization of cycle dynamics and thermodynamics. It is therefore necessary to appreciate all possible sources of signal distortion when designing pressure measurement systems for this type of research. The signal distortion inherent to pressure transmission lines is discussed. Based on results from classical analysis, guidelines are formulated to describe the dynamic response properties of a volume-terminated transmission tube for applications involving helium-charged free piston Stirling engines. The scope and limitations of the dynamic response analysis are considered.

Transmission dynamics of the recently-identified BYD virus causing duck egg-drop syndrome.

PubMed

Vaidya, Naveen K; Wang, Feng-bin; Zou, Xingfu; Wahl, Lindi M

2012-01-01

Baiyangdian (BYD) virus is a recently-identified mosquito-borne flavivirus that causes severe disease in ducks, with extremely rapid transmission, up to 15% mortality within 10 days and 90% reduction in egg production on duck farms within 5 days of infection. Because of the zoonotic nature of flaviviruses, the characterization of BYD virus and its epidemiology are important public health concerns. Here, we develop a mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of this novel virus. We validate the model against BYD outbreak data collected from duck farms in Southeast China, as well as experimental data obtained from an animal facility. Based on our model, the basic reproductive number of BYD virus is high (R(0) = 21) indicating that this virus is highly transmissible, consistent with the dramatic epidemiology observed in BYDV-affected duck farms. Our results indicate that younger ducks are more vulnerable to BYD disease and that ducks infected with BYD virus reduce egg production (to about 33% on average) for about 3 days post-infection; after 3 days infected ducks are no longer able to produce eggs. Using our model, we predict that control measures which reduce contact between mosquitoes and ducks such as mosquito nets are more effective than insecticides.

Inferring HIV-1 Transmission Dynamics in Germany From Recently Transmitted Viruses.

PubMed

Pouran Yousef, Kaveh; Meixenberger, Karolin; Smith, Maureen R; Somogyi, Sybille; Gromöller, Silvana; Schmidt, Daniel; Gunsenheimer-Bartmeyer, Barbara; Hamouda, Osamah; Kücherer, Claudia; von Kleist, Max

2016-11-01

Although HIV continues to spread globally, novel intervention strategies such as treatment as prevention (TasP) may bring the epidemic to a halt. However, their effective implementation requires a profound understanding of the underlying transmission dynamics. We analyzed parameters of the German HIV epidemic based on phylogenetic clustering of viral sequences from recently infected seroconverters with known infection dates. Viral baseline and follow-up pol sequences (n = 1943) from 1159 drug-naïve individuals were selected from a nationwide long-term observational study initiated in 1997. Putative transmission clusters were computed based on a maximum likelihood phylogeny. Using individual follow-up sequences, we optimized our clustering threshold to maximize the likelihood of co-clustering individuals connected by direct transmission. The sizes of putative transmission clusters scaled inversely with their abundance and their distribution exhibited a heavy tail. Clusters based on the optimal clustering threshold were significantly more likely to contain members of the same or bordering German federal states. Interinfection times between co-clustered individuals were significantly shorter (26 weeks; interquartile range: 13-83) than in a null model. Viral intraindividual evolution may be used to select criteria that maximize co-clustering of transmission pairs in the absence of strong adaptive selection pressure. Interinfection times of co-clustered individuals may then be an indicator of the typical time to onward transmission. Our analysis suggests that onward transmission may have occurred early after infection, when individuals are typically unaware of their serological status. The latter argues that TasP should be combined with HIV testing campaigns to reduce the possibility of transmission before TasP initiation.

A combination of new screening assays for prioritization of transmission-blocking antimalarials reveals distinct dynamics of marketed and experimental drugs.

PubMed

Bolscher, J M; Koolen, K M J; van Gemert, G J; van de Vegte-Bolmer, M G; Bousema, T; Leroy, D; Sauerwein, R W; Dechering, K J

2015-05-01

The development of drugs to reduce malaria transmission is an important part of malaria eradication plans. We set out to develop and validate a combination of new screening assays for prioritization of transmission-blocking molecules. We developed high-throughput assays for screening compounds against gametocytes, the parasite stages responsible for onward transmission to mosquitoes. An existing gametocyte parasitic lactate dehydrogenase (pLDH) assay was adapted for use in 384-well plates, and a novel homogeneous immunoassay to monitor the functional transition of female gametocytes into gametes was developed. A collection of 48 marketed and experimental antimalarials was screened and subsequently tested for impact on sporogony in Anopheles mosquitoes, to directly quantify the transmission-blocking properties of antimalarials in relation to their effects on gametocyte pLDH activity or gametogenesis. The novel screening assays revealed distinct stage-specific kinetics and dynamics of drug effects. Peroxides showed the most potent transmission-blocking effects, with an intermediate speed of action and IC50 values that were 20-40-fold higher than the IC50s against the asexual stages causing clinical malaria. Finally, the novel synthetic peroxide OZ439 appeared to be a promising drug candidate as it exerted gametocytocidal and transmission-blocking effects at clinically relevant concentrations. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Co-infections and transmission dynamics in a tick-borne bacterium community exposed to songbirds.

PubMed

Heylen, Dieter; Fonville, Manoj; van Leeuwen, Arieke Docters; Sprong, Hein

2016-03-01

We investigated the transmission dynamics of a community of tick-borne pathogenic bacteria in a common European songbird (Parus major). Tick-naïve birds were infested with three successive batches (spaced 5 days apart) of field-collected Ixodes ricinus nymphs, carrying the following tick-borne bacteria: Rickettsia helvetica (16.9%), Borrelia garinii (1.9%), Borrelia miyamotoi (1.6%), Anaplasma phagocytophilum (1.2%) and Candidatus Neoehrlichia mikurensis (0.4%). Fed ticks were screened for the pathogens after moulting to the next developmental phase. We found evidence for early transmission (within 2.75 days after exposure) of R. helvetica and B. garinii, and to a lesser extent of A. phagocytophilum based on the increased infection rates of ticks during the first infestation. The proportion of ticks infected with R. helvetica remained constant over the three infestations. In contrast, the infection rate of B. garinii in the ticks increased over the three infestations, indicating a more gradual development of host tissue infection. No interactions were found among the different bacterium species during transmission. Birds did not transmit or amplify the other bacterial species. We show that individual birds can transmit several pathogenic bacterium species at the same time using different mechanisms, and that the transmission facilitation by birds increases the frequency of co-infections in ticks. © 2015 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Impact of combined vector-control and vaccination strategies on transmission dynamics of dengue fever: a model-based analysis.

PubMed

Knerer, Gerhart; Currie, Christine S M; Brailsford, Sally C

2015-06-01

Dengue fever is a vector-borne disease prevalent in tropical and subtropical regions. It is an important public health problem with a considerable and often under-valued disease burden in terms of frequency, cost and quality-of-life. Recent literature reviews have documented the development of mathematical models of dengue fever both to identify important characteristics for future model development as well as to assess the impact of dengue control interventions. Such reviews highlight the importance of short-term cross-protection; antibody-dependent enhancement; and seasonality (in terms of both favourable and unfavourable conditions for mosquitoes). The compartmental model extends work by Bartley (2002) and combines the following factors: seasonality, age-structure, consecutive infection by all four serotypes, cross-protection and immune enhancement, as well as combined vector-host transmission. The model is used to represent dengue transmission dynamics using parameters appropriate for Thailand and to assess the potential impact of combined vector-control and vaccination strategies including routine and catch-up vaccination strategies on disease dynamics. When seasonality and temporary cross-protection between serotypes are included, the model is able to approximate the observed incidence of dengue fever in Thailand. We find vaccination to be the most effective single intervention, albeit with imperfect efficacy (30.2 %) and limited duration of protection. However, in combination, control interventions and vaccination exhibit a marked impact on dengue fever transmission. This study shows that an imperfect vaccine can be a useful weapon in reducing disease spread within the community, although it will be most effective when promoted as one of several strategies for combating dengue fever transmission.

Variations in Modeled Dengue Transmission over Puerto Rico Using a Climate Driven Dynamic Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morin, Cory; Monaghan, Andrew; Crosson, William; Quattrochi, Dale; Luvall, Jeffrey

2014-01-01

Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne viral disease reemerging throughout much of the tropical Americas. Dengue virus transmission is explicitly influenced by climate and the environment through its primary vector, Aedes aegypti. Temperature regulates Ae. aegypti development, survival, and replication rates as well as the incubation period of the virus within the mosquito. Precipitation provides water for many of the preferred breeding habitats of the mosquito, including buckets, old tires, and other places water can collect. Because of variations in topography, ocean influences and atmospheric processes, temperature and rainfall patterns vary across Puerto Rico and so do dengue virus transmission rates. Using NASA's TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite for precipitation input, ground-based observations for temperature input, and laboratory confirmed dengue cases reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for parameter calibration, we modeled dengue transmission at the county level across Puerto Rico from 2010-2013 using a dynamic dengue transmission model that includes interacting vector ecology and epidemiological components. Employing a Monte Carlo approach, we performed ensembles of several thousands of model simulations for each county in order to resolve the model uncertainty arising from using different combinations of parameter values that are not well known. The top 1% of model simulations that best reproduced the reported dengue case data were then analyzed to determine the most important parameters for dengue virus transmission in each county, as well as the relative influence of climate variability on transmission. These results can be used by public health workers to implement dengue control methods that are targeted for specific locations and climate conditions.

Transmission Dynamics of Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus in Pigs

PubMed Central

Crombé, Florence; Argudín, M. Angeles; Vanderhaeghen, Wannes; Hermans, Katleen; Haesebrouck, Freddy; Butaye, Patrick

2013-01-01

From the mid-2000s on, numerous studies have shown that methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), renowned as human pathogen, has a reservoir in pigs and other livestock. In Europe and North America, clonal complex (CC) 398 appears to be the predominant lineage involved. Especially worrisome is its capacity to contaminate humans in close contact with affected animals. Indeed, the typical multi-resistant phenotype of MRSA CC398 and its observed ability of easily acquiring genetic material suggests that MRSA CC398 strains with an increased virulence potential may emerge, for which few therapeutic options would remain. This questions the need to implement interventions to control the presence and spread of MRSA CC398 among pigs. MRSA CC398 shows a high but not fully understood transmission potential in the pig population and is able to persist within that population. Although direct contact is probably the main route for MRSA transmission between pigs, also environmental contamination, the presence of other livestock, the herd size, and farm management are factors that may be involved in the dissemination of MRSA CC398. The current review aims at summarizing the research that has so far been done on the transmission dynamics and risk factors for introduction and persistence of MRSA CC398 in farms. PMID:23518663

Engineering science research issues in high power density transmission dynamics for aerospace applications. [rotorcraft geared rotors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Singh, Rajendra; Houser, Donald R.

1993-01-01

This paper discusses analytical and experimental approaches that will be needed to understand dynamic, vibro-acoustic and design characteristics of high power density rotorcraft transmissions. Complexities associated with mathematical modeling of such systems will be discussed. An overview of research work planned during the next several years will be presented, with emphasis on engineering science issues such as gear contact mechanics, multi-mesh drive dynamics, parameter uncertainties, vibration transmission through bearings, and vibro-acoustic characteristics of geared rotor systems and housing-mount structures. A few examples of work in progress are cited.

The transmission dynamics and diversity of human metapneumovirus in Peru.

PubMed

Pollett, Simon; Trovão, Nidia S; Tan, Yi; Eden, John-Sebastian; Halpin, Rebecca A; Bera, Jayati; Das, Suman R; Wentworth, David; Ocaña, Victor; Mendocilla, Silvia M; Álvarez, Carlos; Calisto, Maria E; Garcia, Josefina; Halsey, Eric; Ampuero, Julia S; Nelson, Martha I; Leguia, Mariana

2017-12-29

The transmission dynamics of human metapneumovirus (HMPV) in tropical countries remain unclear. Further understanding of the genetic diversity of the virus could aid in HMPV vaccine design and improve our understanding of respiratory virus transmission dynamics in low- and middle-income countries. We examined the evolution of HMPV in Peru through phylogenetic analysis of 61 full genome HMPV sequences collected in three ecologically diverse regions of Peru (Lima, Piura, and Iquitos) during 2008-2012, comprising the largest data set of HMPV whole genomes sequenced from any tropical country to date. We revealed extensive genetic diversity generated by frequent viral introductions, with little evidence of local persistence. While considerable viral traffic between non-Peruvian countries and Peru was observed, HMPV epidemics in Peruvian locales were more frequently epidemiologically linked with other sites within Peru. We showed that Iquitos experienced greater HMPV traffic than the similar sized city of Piura by both Bayesian and maximum likelihood methods. There is extensive HMPV genetic diversity even within smaller and relatively less connected cities of Peru and this virus is spatially fluid. Greater diversity of HMPV in Iquitos compared to Piura may relate to higher volumes of human movement, including air traffic to this location. © 2017 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

HIV-1 diversity, transmission dynamics and primary drug resistance in Angola.

PubMed

Bártolo, Inês; Zakovic, Suzana; Martin, Francisco; Palladino, Claudia; Carvalho, Patrícia; Camacho, Ricardo; Thamm, Sven; Clemente, Sofia; Taveira, Nuno

2014-01-01

To assess HIV-1 diversity, transmission dynamics and prevalence of transmitted drug resistance (TDR) in Angola, five years after ART scale-up. Population sequencing of the pol gene was performed on 139 plasma samples collected in 2009 from drug-naive HIV-1 infected individuals living in Luanda. HIV-1 subtypes were determined using phylogenetic analysis. Drug resistance mutations were identified using the Calibrated Population Resistance Tool (CPR). Transmission networks were determined using phylogenetic analysis of all Angolan sequences present in the databases. Evolutionary trends were determined by comparison with a similar survey performed in 2001. 47.1% of the viruses were pure subtypes (all except B), 47.1% were recombinants and 5.8% were untypable. The prevalence of subtype A decreased significantly from 2001 to 2009 (40.0% to 10.8%, P = 0.0019) while the prevalence of unique recombinant forms (URFs) increased > 2-fold (40.0% to 83.1%, P < 0.0001). The most frequent URFs comprised untypable sequences with subtypes H (U/H, n = 7, 10.8%), A (U/A, n = 6, 9.2%) and G (G/U, n = 4, 6.2%). Newly identified U/H recombinants formed a highly supported monophyletic cluster suggesting a local and common origin. TDR mutation K103N was found in one (0.7%) patient (1.6% in 2001). Out of the 364 sequences sampled for transmission network analysis, 130 (35.7%) were part of a transmission network. Forty eight transmission clusters were identified; the majority (56.3%) comprised sequences sampled in 2008-2010 in Luanda which is consistent with a locally fuelled epidemic. Very low genetic distance was found in 27 transmission pairs sampled in the same year, suggesting recent transmission events. Transmission of drug resistant strains was still negligible in Luanda in 2009, five years after the scale-up of ART. The dominance of small and recent transmission clusters and the emergence of new URFs are consistent with a rising HIV-1 epidemics mainly driven by heterosexual

Contrasting Transmission Dynamics of Co-endemic Plasmodium vivax and P. falciparum: Implications for Malaria Control and Elimination

PubMed Central

Noviyanti, Rintis; Coutrier, Farah; Utami, Retno A. S.; Trimarsanto, Hidayat; Tirta, Yusrifar K.; Trianty, Leily; Kusuma, Andreas; Sutanto, Inge; Kosasih, Ayleen; Kusriastuti, Rita; Hawley, William A.; Laihad, Ferdinand; Lobo, Neil; Marfurt, Jutta; Clark, Taane G.; Price, Ric N.; Auburn, Sarah

2015-01-01

Background Outside of Africa, P. falciparum and P. vivax usually coexist. In such co-endemic regions, successful malaria control programs have a greater impact on reducing falciparum malaria, resulting in P. vivax becoming the predominant species of infection. Adding to the challenges of elimination, the dormant liver stage complicates efforts to monitor the impact of ongoing interventions against P. vivax. We investigated molecular approaches to inform the respective transmission dynamics of P. falciparum and P. vivax and how these could help to prioritize public health interventions. Methodology/ Principal Findings Genotype data generated at 8 and 9 microsatellite loci were analysed in 168 P. falciparum and 166 P. vivax isolates, respectively, from four co-endemic sites in Indonesia (Bangka, Kalimantan, Sumba and West Timor). Measures of diversity, linkage disequilibrium (LD) and population structure were used to gauge the transmission dynamics of each species in each setting. Marked differences were observed in the diversity and population structure of P. vivax versus P. falciparum. In Bangka, Kalimantan and Timor, P. falciparum diversity was low, and LD patterns were consistent with unstable, epidemic transmission, amenable to targeted intervention. In contrast, P. vivax diversity was higher and transmission appeared more stable. Population differentiation was lower in P. vivax versus P. falciparum, suggesting that the hypnozoite reservoir might play an important role in sustaining local transmission and facilitating the spread of P. vivax infections in different endemic settings. P. vivax polyclonality varied with local endemicity, demonstrating potential utility in informing on transmission intensity in this species. Conclusions/ Significance Molecular approaches can provide important information on malaria transmission that is not readily available from traditional epidemiological measures. Elucidation of the transmission dynamics circulating in a given

Contrasting Transmission Dynamics of Co-endemic Plasmodium vivax and P. falciparum: Implications for Malaria Control and Elimination.

PubMed

Noviyanti, Rintis; Coutrier, Farah; Utami, Retno A S; Trimarsanto, Hidayat; Tirta, Yusrifar K; Trianty, Leily; Kusuma, Andreas; Sutanto, Inge; Kosasih, Ayleen; Kusriastuti, Rita; Hawley, William A; Laihad, Ferdinand; Lobo, Neil; Marfurt, Jutta; Clark, Taane G; Price, Ric N; Auburn, Sarah

2015-05-01

Outside of Africa, P. falciparum and P. vivax usually coexist. In such co-endemic regions, successful malaria control programs have a greater impact on reducing falciparum malaria, resulting in P. vivax becoming the predominant species of infection. Adding to the challenges of elimination, the dormant liver stage complicates efforts to monitor the impact of ongoing interventions against P. vivax. We investigated molecular approaches to inform the respective transmission dynamics of P. falciparum and P. vivax and how these could help to prioritize public health interventions. Genotype data generated at 8 and 9 microsatellite loci were analysed in 168 P. falciparum and 166 P. vivax isolates, respectively, from four co-endemic sites in Indonesia (Bangka, Kalimantan, Sumba and West Timor). Measures of diversity, linkage disequilibrium (LD) and population structure were used to gauge the transmission dynamics of each species in each setting. Marked differences were observed in the diversity and population structure of P. vivax versus P. falciparum. In Bangka, Kalimantan and Timor, P. falciparum diversity was low, and LD patterns were consistent with unstable, epidemic transmission, amenable to targeted intervention. In contrast, P. vivax diversity was higher and transmission appeared more stable. Population differentiation was lower in P. vivax versus P. falciparum, suggesting that the hypnozoite reservoir might play an important role in sustaining local transmission and facilitating the spread of P. vivax infections in different endemic settings. P. vivax polyclonality varied with local endemicity, demonstrating potential utility in informing on transmission intensity in this species. Molecular approaches can provide important information on malaria transmission that is not readily available from traditional epidemiological measures. Elucidation of the transmission dynamics circulating in a given setting will have a major role in prioritising malaria control strategies

Dynamic sex roles among men who have sex with men and transmissions from primary HIV infection.

PubMed

Alam, Shah Jamal; Romero-Severson, Ethan; Kim, Jong-Hoon; Emond, Gilbert; Koopman, James S

2010-09-01

Previous studies estimating the fraction of transmissions from persons with primary HIV have not focused on the effects of switching sex role in male homosexual populations. Such behavioral fluctuations can increase the contribution of primary HIV in the overall population. We modeled HIV transmission with 8 compartments defined by 4 behavioral groups, with different anal-insertive and anal-receptive combinations, and 2 stages of infection. We explored the effects of fluctuating behavioral categories on endemic prevalence and the fraction of transmissions from primary HIV. We varied transition rates to develop the theory on how behavioral fluctuation affects infection patterns, and we used the transition rates in a Netherlands cohort to assess overall effects in a real setting. The dynamics of change in behavior-group status over time observed in the Netherlands cohort amplifies the prevalence of infection and the fraction of transmissions from primary HIV, resulting in the highest proportions of transmissions being from people with primary HIV. Fluctuation between dual- or receptive-role periods and no-anal-sex periods mainly determines this amplification. In terms of the total transmissions, the dual-role risk group is dominant. Fluctuation between insertive and receptive roles decreases the fraction of transmissions from primary HIV, but such fluctuation is infrequently observed. The fraction of transmissions from primary HIV is considerably raised by fluctuations in insertive and receptive anal sex behaviors. This increase occurs even when primary HIV or later infection status does not influence risk behavior. Thus, it is not simply biology but also behavior patterns and social contexts that determine the fraction of transmissions from primary HIV. Moreover, each primary HIV transmission has a larger population effect than each later infection transmission because the men to whom one transmits from primary HIV carry on more chains of transmissions than the men

Characterizing measles transmission in India: a dynamic modeling study using verbal autopsy data.

PubMed

Verguet, Stéphane; Jones, Edward O; Johri, Mira; Morris, Shaun K; Suraweera, Wilson; Gauvreau, Cindy L; Jha, Prabhat; Jit, Mark

2017-08-10

Decreasing trends in measles mortality have been reported in recent years. However, such estimates of measles mortality have depended heavily on assumed regional measles case fatality risks (CFRs) and made little use of mortality data from low- and middle-income countries in general and India, the country with the highest measles burden globally, in particular. We constructed a dynamic model of measles transmission in India with parameters that were empirically inferred using spectral analysis from a time series of measles mortality extracted from the Million Death Study, an ongoing longitudinal study recording deaths across 2.4 million Indian households and attributing causes of death using verbal autopsy. The model was then used to estimate the measles CFR, the number of measles deaths, and the impact of vaccination in 2000-2015 among under-five children in India and in the states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh (UP), two states with large populations and the highest numbers of measles deaths in India. We obtained the following estimated CFRs among under-five children for the year 2005: 0.63% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.40-1.00%) for India as a whole, 0.62% (0.38-1.00%) for Bihar, and 1.19% (0.80-1.75%) for UP. During 2000-2015, we estimated that 607,000 (95% CI: 383,000-958,000) under-five deaths attributed to measles occurred in India as a whole. If no routine vaccination or supplemental immunization activities had occurred from 2000 to 2015, an additional 1.6 (1.0-2.6) million deaths for under-five children would have occurred across India. We developed a data- and model-driven estimation of the historical measles dynamics, CFR, and vaccination impact in India, extracting the periodicity of epidemics using spectral and coherence analysis, which allowed us to infer key parameters driving measles transmission dynamics and mortality.

Developing a mathematical model for the evaluation of the potential impact of a partially efficacious vaccine on the transmission dynamics of Schistosoma mansoni in human communities.

PubMed

Stylianou, Andria; Hadjichrysanthou, Christoforos; Truscott, James E; Anderson, Roy M

2017-06-17

There is currently no vaccine available to protect humans against infection with the schistosome digenean parasites, although candidate formulations for Schistosoma mansoni are under trial in animal models, including rodents and primates. Current strategies for the control of infection are based on mass drug administration (MDA) targeted at school-aged children of age 5 to 14 years. This approach is unlikely to eliminate exposure to infection except in settings with very low levels of transmission. A deterministic mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of the parasite is described and employed to investigate community level outcomes. The model is defined to encompass two different delivery strategies for the vaccination of the population, namely, infant (cohort) and mass vaccination. However, in this paper the focus is on vaccination delivered in a cohort immunisation programme where infants are immunised within the first year of life before acquiring infection. An analysis of the parasite's transmission dynamics following the administration of a partially protective vaccine is presented. The vaccine acts on parasite mortality, fecundity or/and establishment. A vaccine with an efficacy of over 60% can interrupt transmission in low and moderate transmission settings. In higher transmission intensity areas, greater efficacy or higher infant vaccination coverage is required. Candidate vaccines that act either on parasite mortality, fecundity or establishment within the human host, can be similarly effective. In all cases, however, the duration of protection is important. The community level impact of vaccines with all modes of action, declines if vaccine protection is of a very short duration. However, durations of protection of 5-10 years or more are sufficient, with high coverage and efficacy levels, to halt transmission. The time taken to break transmission may be 18 years or more after the start of the cohort vaccination, depending on the intensity of

The transmission dynamics of groups A and B human respiratory syncytial virus (hRSV) in England & Wales and Finland: seasonality and cross-protection.

PubMed

White, L J; Waris, M; Cane, P A; Nokes, D J; Medley, G F

2005-04-01

Human respiratory syncytial virus (hRSV) transmission dynamics are inherently cyclical, and the observed genetic diversity (between groups A and B) also appears to have a repeating pattern. A key unknown is the extent to which genetic variants interact immunologically, and thus impact on epidemiology. We developed a novel mathematical model for hRSV transmission including seasonal forcing of incidence and temporary intra- and inter-group partial immunity. Simultaneous model fits to data from two locations (England & Wales, UK, and Turku, Finland) successfully reproduced the contrasting infection dynamics and group A/B dominance patterns. Parameter estimates are consistent with direct estimates. Differences in the magnitude and seasonal variation in contact rate between the two populations alone could account for the variation in dynamics between these populations. The A/B group dominance patterns are explained by reductions in susceptibility to and infectiousness of secondary homologous and heterologous infections. The consequences of the observed dynamic complexity are discussed.

MRI dynamic range and its compatibility with signal transmission media

PubMed Central

Gabr, Refaat E.; Schär, Michael; Edelstein, Arthur D.; Kraitchman, Dara L.; Bottomley, Paul A.; Edelstein, William A.

2010-01-01

As the number of MRI phased array coil elements grows, interactions among cables connecting them to the system receiver become increasingly problematic. Fiber optic or wireless links would reduce electromagnetic interference, but their dynamic range (DR) is generally less than that of coaxial cables. Raw MRI signals, however, have a large DR because of the high signal amplitude near the center of k-space. Here, we study DR in MRI in order to determine the compatibility of MRI multicoil imaging with non-coaxial cable signal transmission. Since raw signal data are routinely discarded, we have developed an improved method for estimating the DR of MRI signals from conventional magnitude images. Our results indicate that the DR of typical surface coil signals at 3 T for human subjects is less than 88 dB, even for three-dimensional acquisition protocols. Cardiac and spine coil arrays had a maximum DR of less than 75 dB and head coil arrays less than 88 dB. The DR derived from magnitude images is in good agreement with that measured from raw data. The results suggest that current analog fiber optic links, with a spurious-free DR of 60–70 dB at 500 kHz bandwidth, are not by themselves adequate for transmitting MRI data from volume or array coils with DR ~90 dB. However, combining analog links with signal compression might make non-coaxial cable signal transmission viable. PMID:19251444

MRI dynamic range and its compatibility with signal transmission media.

PubMed

Gabr, Refaat E; Schär, Michael; Edelstein, Arthur D; Kraitchman, Dara L; Bottomley, Paul A; Edelstein, William A

2009-06-01

As the number of MRI phased array coil elements grows, interactions among cables connecting them to the system receiver become increasingly problematic. Fiber optic or wireless links would reduce electromagnetic interference, but their dynamic range (DR) is generally less than that of coaxial cables. Raw MRI signals, however, have a large DR because of the high signal amplitude near the center of k-space. Here, we study DR in MRI in order to determine the compatibility of MRI multicoil imaging with non-coaxial cable signal transmission. Since raw signal data are routinely discarded, we have developed an improved method for estimating the DR of MRI signals from conventional magnitude images. Our results indicate that the DR of typical surface coil signals at 3T for human subjects is less than 88 dB, even for three-dimensional acquisition protocols. Cardiac and spine coil arrays had a maximum DR of less than 75 dB and head coil arrays less than 88 dB. The DR derived from magnitude images is in good agreement with that measured from raw data. The results suggest that current analog fiber optic links, with a spurious-free DR of 60-70 dB at 500 kHz bandwidth, are not by themselves adequate for transmitting MRI data from volume or array coils with DR approximately 90 dB. However, combining analog links with signal compression might make non-coaxial cable signal transmission viable.

Phylogenetic studies of transmission dynamics in generalized HIV epidemics: An essential tool where the burden is greatest?

PubMed Central

Dennis, Ann M.; Herbeck, Joshua T.; Brown, Andrew Leigh; Kellam, Paul; de Oliveira, Tulio; Pillay, Deenan; Fraser, Christophe; Cohen, Myron S.

2014-01-01

Efficient and effective HIV prevention measures for generalized epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa have not yet been validated at the population-level. Design and impact evaluation of such measures requires fine-scale understanding of local HIV transmission dynamics. The novel tools of HIV phylogenetics and molecular epidemiology may elucidate these transmission dynamics. Such methods have been incorporated into studies of concentrated HIV epidemics to identify proximate and determinant traits associated with ongoing transmission. However, applying similar phylogenetic analyses to generalized epidemics, including the design and evaluation of prevention trials, presents additional challenges. Here we review the scope of these methods and present examples of their use in concentrated epidemics in the context of prevention. Next, we describe the current uses for phylogenetics in generalized epidemics, and discuss their promise for elucidating transmission patterns and informing prevention trials. Finally, we review logistic and technical challenges inherent to large-scale molecular epidemiological studies of generalized epidemics, and suggest potential solutions. PMID:24977473

On the dynamic response of pressure transmission lines in the research of helium-charged free piston Stirling engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, Eric L.; Dudenhoefer, James E.

1989-01-01

The signal distortion inherent to pressure transmission lines in free-piston Stirling engine research is discussed. Based on results from classical analysis, guidelines are formulated to describe the dynamic response properties of a volume-terminated transmission tube for applications involving the helium-charged free-piston Stirling engines. The underdamped flow regime is described, the primary resonance frequency is derived, and the pressure phase and amplitude distortion are discussed. The scope and limitation of the dynamic response analysis are considered.

Neural dynamics underlying emotional transmissions between individuals

PubMed Central

Levit-Binnun, Nava; Hendler, Talma; Lerner, Yulia

2017-01-01

Abstract Emotional experiences are frequently shaped by the emotional responses of co-present others. Research has shown that people constantly monitor and adapt to the incoming social–emotional signals, even without face-to-face interaction. And yet, the neural processes underlying such emotional transmissions have not been directly studied. Here, we investigated how the human brain processes emotional cues which arrive from another, co-attending individual. We presented continuous emotional feedback to participants who viewed a movie in the scanner. Participants in the social group (but not in the control group) believed that the feedback was coming from another person who was co-viewing the same movie. We found that social–emotional feedback significantly affected the neural dynamics both in the core affect and in the medial pre-frontal regions. Specifically, the response time-courses in those regions exhibited increased similarity across recipients and increased neural alignment with the timeline of the feedback in the social compared with control group. Taken in conjunction with previous research, this study suggests that emotional cues from others shape the neural dynamics across the whole neural continuum of emotional processing in the brain. Moreover, it demonstrates that interpersonal neural alignment can serve as a neural mechanism through which affective information is conveyed between individuals. PMID:28575520

Predicting lymphatic filariasis transmission and elimination dynamics using a multi-model ensemble framework.

PubMed

Smith, Morgan E; Singh, Brajendra K; Irvine, Michael A; Stolk, Wilma A; Subramanian, Swaminathan; Hollingsworth, T Déirdre; Michael, Edwin

2017-03-01

Mathematical models of parasite transmission provide powerful tools for assessing the impacts of interventions. Owing to complexity and uncertainty, no single model may capture all features of transmission and elimination dynamics. Multi-model ensemble modelling offers a framework to help overcome biases of single models. We report on the development of a first multi-model ensemble of three lymphatic filariasis (LF) models (EPIFIL, LYMFASIM, and TRANSFIL), and evaluate its predictive performance in comparison with that of the constituents using calibration and validation data from three case study sites, one each from the three major LF endemic regions: Africa, Southeast Asia and Papua New Guinea (PNG). We assessed the performance of the respective models for predicting the outcomes of annual MDA strategies for various baseline scenarios thought to exemplify the current endemic conditions in the three regions. The results show that the constructed multi-model ensemble outperformed the single models when evaluated across all sites. Single models that best fitted calibration data tended to do less well in simulating the out-of-sample, or validation, intervention data. Scenario modelling results demonstrate that the multi-model ensemble is able to compensate for variance between single models in order to produce more plausible predictions of intervention impacts. Our results highlight the value of an ensemble approach to modelling parasite control dynamics. However, its optimal use will require further methodological improvements as well as consideration of the organizational mechanisms required to ensure that modelling results and data are shared effectively between all stakeholders. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling climate change and malaria transmission.

PubMed

Parham, Paul E; Michael, Edwin

2010-01-01

The impact of climate change on human health has received increasing attention in recent years, with potential impacts due to vector-borne diseases only now beginning to be understood. As the most severe vector-borne disease, with one million deaths globally in 2006, malaria is thought most likely to be affected by changes in climate variables due to the sensitivity of its transmission dynamics to environmental conditions. While considerable research has been carried out using statistical models to better assess the relationship between changes in environmental variables and malaria incidence, less progress has been made on developing process-based climate-driven mathematical models with greater explanatory power. Here, we develop a simple model of malaria transmission linked to climate which permits useful insights into the sensitivity of disease transmission to changes in rainfall and temperature variables. Both the impact of changes in the mean values of these key external variables and importantly temporal variation in these values are explored. We show that the development and analysis of such dynamic climate-driven transmission models will be crucial to understanding the rate at which P. falciparum and P. vivax may either infect, expand into or go extinct in populations as local environmental conditions change. Malaria becomes endemic in a population when the basic reproduction number R0 is greater than unity and we identify an optimum climate-driven transmission window for the disease, thus providing a useful indicator for determing how transmission risk may change as climate changes. Overall, our results indicate that considerable work is required to better understand ways in which global malaria incidence and distribution may alter with climate change. In particular, we show that the roles of seasonality, stochasticity and variability in environmental variables, as well as ultimately anthropogenic effects, require further study. The work presented here

Nonlinearity in the vertical transmissibility of seating: the role of the human body apparent mass and seat dynamic stiffness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tufano, Saverio; Griffin, Michael J.

2013-01-01

The efficiency of a seat in reducing vibration depends on the characteristics of the vibration, the dynamic characteristics of the seat, and the dynamic characteristics of the person sitting on the seat. However, it is not known whether seat cushions influence the dynamic response of the human body, whether the human body influences the dynamic response of seat cushions, or the relative importance of human body nonlinearity and seat nonlinearity in causing nonlinearity in measures of seat transmissibility. This study was designed to investigate the nonlinearity of the coupled seat and human body systems and to compare the apparent mass of the human body supported on rigid and foam seats. A frequency domain model was used to identify the dynamic parameters of seat foams and investigate their dependence on the subject-sitting weight and hip breadth. With 15 subjects, the force and acceleration at the seat base and acceleration at the subject interface were measured during random vertical vibration excitation (0.25-25 Hz) at each of five vibration magnitudes, (0.25-1.6 ms-2 r.m.s.) with four seating conditions (rigid flat seat and three foam cushions). The measurements are presented in terms of the subject's apparent mass on the rigid and foam seat surfaces, and the transmissibility and dynamic stiffness of each of the foam cushions. Both the human body and the foams showed nonlinear softening behaviour, which resulted in nonlinear cushion transmissibility. The apparent masses of subjects sitting on the rigid seat and on foam cushions were similar, but with an apparent increase in damping when sitting on the foams. The foam dynamic stiffness showed complex correlations with characteristics of the human body, which differed between foams. The nonlinearities in cushion transmissibilities, expressed in terms of changes in resonance frequencies and moduli, were more dependent on human body nonlinearity than on cushion nonlinearity.

Knowledge transmission model with differing initial transmission and retransmission process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Haiying; Wang, Jun; Small, Michael

2018-10-01

Knowledge transmission is a cyclic dynamic diffusion process. The rate of acceptance of knowledge differs upon whether or not the recipient has previously held the knowledge. In this paper, the knowledge transmission process is divided into an initial and a retransmission procedure, each with its own transmission and self-learning parameters. Based on epidemic spreading model, we propose a naive-evangelical-agnostic (VEA) knowledge transmission model and derive mean-field equations to describe the dynamics of knowledge transmission in homogeneous networks. Theoretical analysis identifies a criterion for the persistence of knowledge, i.e., the reproduction number R0 depends on the minor effective parameters between the initial and retransmission process. Moreover, the final size of evangelical individuals is only related to retransmission process parameters. Numerical simulations validate the theoretical analysis. Furthermore, the simulations indicate that increasing the initial transmission parameters, including first transmission and self-learning rates of naive individuals, can accelerate the velocity of knowledge transmission efficiently but have no effect on the final size of evangelical individuals. In contrast, the retransmission parameters, including retransmission and self-learning rates of agnostic individuals, have a significant effect on the rate of knowledge transmission, i.e., the larger parameters the greater final density of evangelical individuals.

Superconducting power transmission system development. Cable insulation development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1983-09-01

The development of an underground superconducting power transmission system which is economical and technically attractive to the utility industry is discussed. Suitable superconductors and dielectric insulation were developed. Cables several hundred feet long are tested under realistic conditions. Three operating runs of about 2 weeks duration each were accomplished. The 60 Hz steady state performance of the cables under rated conditions was explored. Over voltage endurance tests and emergency level current tests were performed.

Transmission dynamics of two dengue serotypes with vaccination scenarios.

PubMed

González Morales, N L; Núñez-López, M; Ramos-Castañeda, J; Velasco-Hernández, J X

2017-05-01

In this work we present a mathematical model that incorporates two Dengue serotypes. The model has been constructed to study both the epidemiological trends of the disease and conditions that allow coexistence in competing strains under vaccination. We consider two viral strains and temporary cross-immunity with one vector mosquito population. Results suggest that vaccination scenarios will not only reduce disease incidence but will also modify the transmission dynamics. Indeed, vaccination and cross immunity period are seen to decrease the frequency and magnitude of outbreaks but in a differentiated manner with specific effects depending upon the interaction vaccine and strain type. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mathematical Modeling of the Transmission Dynamics of Clostridium difficile Infection and Colonization in Healthcare Settings: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Gingras, Guillaume; Guertin, Marie-Hélène; Laprise, Jean-François; Drolet, Mélanie; Brisson, Marc

2016-01-01

Background We conducted a systematic review of mathematical models of transmission dynamic of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) in healthcare settings, to provide an overview of existing models and their assessment of different CDI control strategies. Methods We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and Web of Science up to February 3, 2016 for transmission-dynamic models of Clostridium difficile in healthcare settings. The models were compared based on their natural history representation of Clostridium difficile, which could include health states (S-E-A-I-R-D: Susceptible-Exposed-Asymptomatic-Infectious-Resistant-Deceased) and the possibility to include healthcare workers and visitors (vectors of transmission). Effectiveness of interventions was compared using the relative reduction (compared to no intervention or current practice) in outcomes such as incidence of colonization, CDI, CDI recurrence, CDI mortality, and length of stay. Results Nine studies describing six different models met the inclusion criteria. Over time, the models have generally increased in complexity in terms of natural history and transmission dynamics and number/complexity of interventions/bundles of interventions examined. The models were categorized into four groups with respect to their natural history representation: S-A-I-R, S-E-A-I, S-A-I, and S-E-A-I-R-D. Seven studies examined the impact of CDI control strategies. Interventions aimed at controlling the transmission, lowering CDI vulnerability and reducing the risk of recurrence/mortality were predicted to reduce CDI incidence by 3–49%, 5–43% and 5–29%, respectively. Bundles of interventions were predicted to reduce CDI incidence by 14–84%. Conclusions Although CDI is a major public health problem, there are very few published transmission-dynamic models of Clostridium difficile. Published models vary substantially in the interventions examined, the outcome measures used and the representation of the natural history of Clostridium

Dynamic facade module prototype development for solar radiation prevention in high rise building

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sega Sufia Purnama, Muhammad; Sutanto, Dalhar

2018-03-01

Solar radiation is an aspect that high rise building must avoid. The problem is, if high rise building facade can’t overcome, the solar thermal will come in the building, and its affects on the increasing of room temperature above comfort range. A type of additional facade element that could solve solar thermal in high rise building is adding a sun shading. A dynamic facade is a shade plane in high rise building that can moved or changed on outside condition such as solar movement and intensity. This research will discuss the dynamic facade module prototype development in high rise building in Jakarta. This research will be finish through some step. (1) Static shading shadow simulation. (2) Dynamic facade concept design development. (3) Dynamic shading shadow simulation. (4) Making of dynamic facade module prototype. (5) Field test for the dynamic facade module prototype. The dynamic facade in Jakarta case will be effective to solve solar transmission in high rise building rather than static facade.

Dynamics of a feline virus with two transmission modes within exponentially growing host populations.

PubMed Central

Berthier, K; Langlais, M; Auger, P; Pontier, D

2000-01-01

Feline panleucopenia virus (FPLV) was introduced in 1977 on Marion Island (in the southern Indian Ocean) with the aim of eradicating the cat population and provoked a huge decrease in the host population within six years. The virus can be transmitted either directly through contacts between infected and healthy cats or indirectly between a healthy cat and the contaminated environment: a specific feature of the virus is its high rate of survival outside the host. In this paper, a model was designed in order to take these two modes of transmission into account. The results showed that a mass-action incidence assumption was more appropriate than a proportionate mixing one in describing the dynamics of direct transmission. Under certain conditions the virus was able to control the host population at a low density. The indirect transmission acted as a reservoir supplying the host population with a low but sufficient density of infected individuals which allowed the virus to persist. The dynamics of the infection were more affected by the demographic parameters of the healthy hosts than by the epidemiological ones. Thus, demographic parameters should be precisely measured in field studies in order to obtain accurate predictions. The predicted results of our model were in good agreement with observations. PMID:11416908

Border Malaria Associated with Multidrug Resistance on Thailand-Myanmar and Thailand-Cambodia Borders: Transmission Dynamic, Vulnerability, and Surveillance

PubMed Central

Bhumiratana, Adisak; Intarapuk, Apiradee; Sorosjinda-Nunthawarasilp, Prapa; Maneekan, Pannamas; Koyadun, Surachart

2013-01-01

This systematic review elaborates the concepts and impacts of border malaria, particularly on the emergence and spread of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax multidrug resistance (MDR) malaria on Thailand-Myanmar and Thailand-Cambodia borders. Border malaria encompasses any complex epidemiological settings of forest-related and forest fringe-related malaria, both regularly occurring in certain transmission areas and manifesting a trend of increased incidence in transmission prone areas along these borders, as the result of interconnections of human settlements and movement activities, cross-border population migrations, ecological changes, vector population dynamics, and multidrug resistance. For regional and global perspectives, this review analyzes and synthesizes the rationales pertaining to transmission dynamics and the vulnerabilities of border malaria that constrain surveillance and control of the world's most MDR falciparum and vivax malaria on these chaotic borders. PMID:23865048

Network information analysis reveals risk perception transmission in a behaviour-influenza dynamics system.

PubMed

Liao, C-M; You, S-H; Cheng, Y-H

2015-01-01

Influenza poses a significant public health burden worldwide. Understanding how and to what extent people would change their behaviour in response to influenza outbreaks is critical for formulating public health policies. We incorporated the information-theoretic framework into a behaviour-influenza (BI) transmission dynamics system in order to understand the effects of individual behavioural change on influenza epidemics. We showed that information transmission of risk perception played a crucial role in the spread of health-seeking behaviour throughout influenza epidemics. Here a network BI model provides a new approach for understanding the risk perception spread and human behavioural change during disease outbreaks. Our study allows simultaneous consideration of epidemiological, psychological, and social factors as predictors of individual perception rates in behaviour-disease transmission systems. We suggest that a monitoring system with precise information on risk perception should be constructed to effectively promote health behaviours in preparation for emerging disease outbreaks.

MRSA Transmission Dynamics Among Interconnected Acute, Intermediate-Term, and Long-Term Healthcare Facilities in Singapore.

PubMed

Chow, Angela; Lim, Vanessa W; Khan, Ateeb; Pettigrew, Kerry; Lye, David C B; Kanagasabai, Kala; Phua, Kelvin; Krishnan, Prabha; Ang, Brenda; Marimuthu, Kalisvar; Hon, Pei-Yun; Koh, Jocelyn; Leong, Ian; Parkhill, Julian; Hsu, Li-Yang; Holden, Matthew T G

2017-05-15

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is the most common healthcare-associated multidrug-resistant organism. Despite the interconnectedness between acute care hospitals (ACHs) and intermediate- and long-term care facilities (ILTCFs), the transmission dynamics of MRSA between healthcare settings is not well understood. We conducted a cross-sectional study in a network comprising an ACH and 5 closely affiliated ILTCFs in Singapore. A total of 1700 inpatients were screened for MRSA over a 6-week period in 2014. MRSA isolates underwent whole-genome sequencing, with a pairwise single-nucleotide polymorphism (Hamming distance) cutoff of 60 core genome single-nucleotide polymorphisms used to define recent transmission clusters (clades) for the 3 major clones. MRSA prevalence was significantly higher in intermediate-term (29.9%) and long-term (20.4%) care facilities than in the ACH (11.8%) (P < .001). The predominant clones were sequence type [ST] 22 (n = 183; 47.8%), ST45 (n = 129; 33.7%), and ST239 (n = 26; 6.8%), with greater diversity of STs in ILTCFs relative to the ACH. A large proportion of the clades in ST22 (14 of 21 clades; 67%) and ST45 (7 of 13; 54%) included inpatients from the ACH and ILTCFs. The most frequent source of the interfacility transmissions was the ACH (n = 28 transmission events; 36.4%). MRSA transmission dynamics between the ACH and ILTCFs were complex. The greater diversity of STs in ILTCFs suggests that the ecosystem in such settings might be more conducive for intrafacility transmission events. ST22 and ST45 have successfully established themselves in ILTCFs. The importance of interconnected infection prevention and control measures and strategies cannot be overemphasized. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Impact of Public Safety Policies on Human Immunodeficiency Virus Transmission Dynamics in Tijuana, Mexico.

PubMed

Mehta, Sanjay R; Chaillon, Antoine; Gaines, Tommi L; Gonzalez-Zuniga, Patricia E; Stockman, Jamila K; Almanza-Reyes, Horatio; Chavez, Jose Roman; Vera, Alicia; Wagner, Karla D; Patterson, Thomas L; Scott, Brianna; Smith, Davey M; Strathdee, Steffanie A

2018-02-10

North Tijuana, Mexico is home to many individuals at high risk for transmitting and acquiring human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Recently, policy shifts by local government impacted how these individuals were handled by authorities. Here we examined how this affected regional HIV transmission dynamics. HIV pol sequences and associated demographic information were collected from 8 research studies enrolling persons in Tijuana and were used to infer viral transmission patterns. To evaluate the impact of recent policy changes on HIV transmission dynamics, qualitative interviews were performed on a subset of recently infected individuals. Between 2004 and 2016, 288 unique HIV pol sequences were obtained from individuals in Tijuana, including 46.4% from men who have sex with men, 42.1% from individuals reporting transactional sex, and 27.8% from persons who inject drugs (some individuals had >1 risk factor). Forty-two percent of sequences linked to at least 1 other sequence, forming 37 transmission clusters. Thirty-two individuals seroconverted during the observation period, including 8 between April and July 2016. Three of these individuals were putatively linked together. Qualitative interviews suggested changes in policing led individuals to shift locations of residence and injection drug use, leading to increased risk taking (eg, sharing needles). Near real-time molecular epidemiologic analyses identified a cluster of linked transmissions temporally associated with policy shifts. Interviews suggested these shifts may have led to increased risk taking among individuals at high risk for HIV acquisition. With all public policy shifts, downstream impacts need to be carefully considered, as even well-intentioned policies can have major public health consequences. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Development of the ITER ICH Transmission Line and Matching System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasmussen, D. A.; Goulding, R. H.; Pesavento, P. V.; Peters, B.; Swain, D. W.; Fredd, E. H.; Hosea, J.; Greenough, N.

2011-10-01

The ITER Ion Cyclotron Heating (ICH) System is designed to couple 20 MW of heating power for ion and electron heating. Prototype components for the ITER Ion Cyclotron Heating (ICH) transmission line and matching system are being designed and tested. The ICH transmission lines are pressurized 300 mm diameter coaxial lines with water-cooled aluminum outer conductor and gas-cooled and water-cooled copper inner conductor. Each ICH transmission line is designed to handle 40-55 MHz power at up to 6 MW/line. A total of 8 lines split to 16 antenna inputs on two ICH antennas. Industrial suppliers have designed coaxial transmission line and matching components and prototypes will be manufactured. The prototype components will be qualified on a test stand operating at the full power and pulse length needed for ITER. The matching system must accommodated dynamic changes in the plasma loading due to ELMS and the L to H-mode transition. Passive ELM tolerance will be performed using hybrid couplers and loads, which can absorb the transient reflected power. The system is also designed to compensate for the mutual inductances of the antenna current straps to limit the peak voltages on the antenna array elements.

Strain-specific estimation of epidemic success provides insights into the transmission dynamics of tuberculosis

PubMed Central

Rasigade, Jean-Philippe; Barbier, Maxime; Dumitrescu, Oana; Pichat, Catherine; Carret, Gérard; Ronnaux-Baron, Anne-Sophie; Blasquez, Ghislaine; Godin-Benhaim, Christine; Boisset, Sandrine; Carricajo, Anne; Jacomo, Véronique; Fredenucci, Isabelle; Pérouse de Montclos, Michèle; Flandrois, Jean-Pierre; Ader, Florence; Supply, Philip; Lina, Gérard; Wirth, Thierry

2017-01-01

The transmission dynamics of tuberculosis involves complex interactions of socio-economic and, possibly, microbiological factors. We describe an analytical framework to infer factors of epidemic success based on the joint analysis of epidemiological, clinical and pathogen genetic data. We derive isolate-specific, genetic distance-based estimates of epidemic success, and we represent success-related time-dependent concepts, namely epidemicity and endemicity, by restricting analysis to specific time scales. The method is applied to analyze a surveillance-based cohort of 1,641 tuberculosis patients with minisatellite-based isolate genotypes. Known predictors of isolate endemicity (older age, native status) and epidemicity (younger age, sputum smear positivity) were identified with high confidence (P < 0.001). Long-term epidemic success also correlated with the ability of Euro-American and Beijing MTBC lineages to cause active pulmonary infection, independent of patient age and country of origin. Our results demonstrate how important insights into the transmission dynamics of tuberculosis can be gained from active surveillance data. PMID:28349973

Dynamic Analysis of Spur Gear Transmissions (DANST). PC Version 3.00 User Manual

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oswald, Fred B.; Lin, Hsiang Hsi; Delgado, Irebert R.

1996-01-01

DANST is a FORTRAN computer program for static and dynamic analysis of spur gear systems. The program can be used for parametric studies to predict the static transmission error, dynamic load, tooth bending stress and other properties of spur gears as they are influenced by operating speed, torque, stiffness, damping, inertia, and tooth profile. DANST performs geometric modeling and dynamic analysis for low- or high-contact-ratio spur gears. DANST can simulate gear systems with contact ratios ranging from one to three. It was designed to be easy to use and it is extensively documented in several previous reports and by comments in the source code. This report describes installing and using a new PC version of DANST, covers input data requirements and presents examples.

Finite element analysis using NASTRAN applied to helicopter transmission vibration/noise reduction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Howells, R. W.; Sciarra, J. J.

1975-01-01

A finite element NASTRAN model of the complete forward rotor transmission housing for the Boeing Vertol CH-47 helicopter was developed and applied to reduce transmission vibration/noise at its source. In addition to a description of the model, a technique for vibration/noise prediction and reduction is outlined. Also included are the dynamic response as predicted by NASTRAN, test data, the use of strain energy methods to optimize the housing for minimum vibration/noise, and determination of design modifications which will be manufactured and tested. The techniques presented are not restricted to helicopters but are applicable to any power transmission system. The transmission housing model developed can be used further to evaluate static and dynamic stresses, thermal distortions, deflections and load paths, fail-safety/vulnerability, and composite materials.

Understanding the effects of different HIV transmission models in individual-based microsimulation of HIV epidemic dynamics in people who inject drugs

PubMed Central

MONTEIRO, J.F.G.; ESCUDERO, D.J.; WEINREB, C.; FLANIGAN, T.; GALEA, S.; FRIEDMAN, S.R.; MARSHALL, B.D.L.

2017-01-01

SUMMARY We investigated how different models of HIV transmission, and assumptions regarding the distribution of unprotected sex and syringe-sharing events (‘risk acts’), affect quantitative understanding of HIV transmission process in people who inject drugs (PWID). The individual-based model simulated HIV transmission in a dynamic sexual and injecting network representing New York City. We constructed four HIV transmission models: model 1, constant probabilities; model 2, random number of sexual and parenteral acts; model 3, viral load individual assigned; and model 4, two groups of partnerships (low and high risk). Overall, models with less heterogeneity were more sensitive to changes in numbers risk acts, producing HIV incidence up to four times higher than that empirically observed. Although all models overestimated HIV incidence, micro-simulations with greater heterogeneity in the HIV transmission modelling process produced more robust results and better reproduced empirical epidemic dynamics. PMID:26753627

Large rotorcraft transmission technology development program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mack, J. C.

1983-01-01

Testing of a U.S. Army XCH-62 HLH aft rotor transmission under NASA Contract NAS 3-22143 was successfully completed. This test establishes the feasibility of large, high power rotorcraft transmissions as well as demonstrating the resolution of deficiencies identified during the HLH advanced technology programs and reported by USAAMRDLTR-77-38. Over 100 hours of testing was conducted. At the 100% design power rating of 10,620 horsepower, the power transferred through a single spiral bevel gear mesh is more than twice that of current helicopter bevel gearing. In the original design of these gears, industry-wide design methods were employed and failures were experienced which identified problem areas unique to gear size. To remedy this technology shortfall, a program was developed to predict gear stresses using finite element analysis for complete and accurate representation of the gear tooth and supporting structure. To validate the finite element methodology gear strain data from the existing U.S. Army HLH aft transmission was acquired, and existing data from smaller gears were made available.

Investigation of hydraulic transmission noise sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klop, Richard J.

Advanced hydrostatic transmissions and hydraulic hybrids show potential in new market segments such as commercial vehicles and passenger cars. Such new applications regard low noise generation as a high priority, thus, demanding new quiet hydrostatic transmission designs. In this thesis, the aim is to investigate noise sources of hydrostatic transmissions to discover strategies for designing compact and quiet solutions. A model has been developed to capture the interaction of a pump and motor working in a hydrostatic transmission and to predict overall noise sources. This model allows a designer to compare noise sources for various configurations and to design compact and inherently quiet solutions. The model describes dynamics of the system by coupling lumped parameter pump and motor models with a one-dimensional unsteady compressible transmission line model. The model has been verified with dynamic pressure measurements in the line over a wide operating range for several system structures. Simulation studies were performed illustrating sensitivities of several design variables and the potential of the model to design transmissions with minimal noise sources. A semi-anechoic chamber has been designed and constructed suitable for sound intensity measurements that can be used to derive sound power. Measurements proved the potential to reduce audible noise by predicting and reducing both noise sources. Sound power measurements were conducted on a series hybrid transmission test bench to validate the model and compare predicted noise sources with sound power.

Modelling the effect of urbanization on the transmission of an infectious disease.

PubMed

Zhang, Ping; Atkinson, Peter M

2008-01-01

This paper models the impact of urbanization on infectious disease transmission by integrating a CA land use development model, population projection matrix model and CA epidemic model in S-Plus. The innovative feature of this model lies in both its explicit treatment of spatial land use development, demographic changes, infectious disease transmission and their combination in a dynamic, stochastic model. Heuristically-defined transition rules in cellular automata (CA) were used to capture the processes of both land use development with urban sprawl and infectious disease transmission. A population surface model and dwelling distribution surface were used to bridge the gap between urbanization and infectious disease transmission. A case study is presented involving modelling influenza transmission in Southampton, a dynamically evolving city in the UK. The simulation results for Southampton over a 30-year period show that the pattern of the average number of infection cases per day can depend on land use and demographic changes. The modelling framework presents a useful tool that may be of use in planning applications.

Household transmission of influenza virus

PubMed Central

Tsang, Tim K.; Lau, Lincoln L. H.; Cauchemez, Simon; Cowling, Benjamin J.

2015-01-01

Human influenza viruses cause regular epidemics and occasional pandemics with a substantial public health burden. Household transmission studies have provided valuable information on the dynamics of influenza transmission. We reviewed published studies and found that once one household member is infected with influenza, the risk of infection in a household contact can be up to 38%, and the delay between onset in index and secondary cases is around 3 days. Younger age was associated with higher susceptibility. In the future, household transmission studies will provide information on transmission dynamics including the correlation of virus shedding and symptoms with transmission, and the correlation of new measures of immunity with protection against infection. PMID:26612500

Internal migration and transmission dynamics of tuberculosis in Shanghai, China: an epidemiological, spatial, genomic analysis.

PubMed

Yang, Chongguang; Lu, Liping; Warren, Joshua L; Wu, Jie; Jiang, Qi; Zuo, Tianyu; Gan, Mingyu; Liu, Mei; Liu, Qingyun; DeRiemer, Kathryn; Hong, Jianjun; Shen, Xin; Colijn, Caroline; Guo, Xiaoqin; Gao, Qian; Cohen, Ted

2018-04-19

Massive internal migration from rural to urban areas poses new challenges for tuberculosis control in China. We aimed to combine genomic, spatial, and epidemiological data to describe the dynamics of tuberculosis in an urban setting with large numbers of migrants. We did a population-based study of culture-positive Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates in Songjiang, Shanghai. We used whole-genome sequencing to discriminate apparent genetic clusters of M tuberculosis sharing identical variable-number-tandem-repeat (VNTR) patterns, and analysed the relations between proximity of residence and the risk of genomically clustered M tuberculosis. Finally, we used genomic, spatial, and epidemiological data to estimate time of infection and transmission links among migrants and residents. Between Jan 1, 2009, and Dec 31, 2015, 1620 cases of culture-positive tuberculosis were recorded, 1211 (75%) of which occurred among internal migrants. 150 (69%) of 218 people sharing identical VNTR patterns had isolates within ten single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of at least one other strain, consistent with recent transmission of M tuberculosis. Pairs of strains collected from individuals living in close proximity were more likely to be genetically similar than those from individuals who lived far away-for every additional km of distance between patients' homes, the odds that genotypically matched strains were within ten SNPs of each other decreased by about 10% (OR 0·89 [95% CI 0·87-0·91]; p<0·0001). We inferred that transmission from residents to migrants occurs as commonly as transmission from migrants to residents, and we estimated that more than two-thirds of migrants in genomic clusters were infected locally after migration. The primary mechanism driving local incidence of tuberculosis in urban centres is local transmission between both migrants and residents. Combined analysis of epidemiological, genomic, and spatial data contributes to a richer understanding of local

A review of typhoid fever transmission dynamic models and economic evaluations of vaccination.

PubMed

Watson, Conall H; Edmunds, W John

2015-06-19

Despite a recommendation by the World Health Organization (WHO) that typhoid vaccines be considered for the control of endemic disease and outbreaks, programmatic use remains limited. Transmission models and economic evaluation may be informative in decision making about vaccine programme introductions and their role alongside other control measures. A literature search found few typhoid transmission models or economic evaluations relative to analyses of other infectious diseases of similar or lower health burden. Modelling suggests vaccines alone are unlikely to eliminate endemic disease in the short to medium term without measures to reduce transmission from asymptomatic carriage. The single identified data-fitted transmission model of typhoid vaccination suggests vaccines can reduce disease burden substantially when introduced programmatically but that indirect protection depends on the relative contribution of carriage to transmission in a given setting. This is an important source of epidemiological uncertainty, alongside the extent and nature of natural immunity. Economic evaluations suggest that typhoid vaccination can be cost-saving to health services if incidence is extremely high and cost-effective in other high-incidence situations, when compared to WHO norms. Targeting vaccination to the highest incidence age-groups is likely to improve cost-effectiveness substantially. Economic perspective and vaccine costs substantially affect estimates, with disease incidence, case-fatality rates, and vaccine efficacy over time also important determinants of cost-effectiveness and sources of uncertainty. Static economic models may under-estimate benefits of typhoid vaccination by omitting indirect protection. Typhoid fever transmission models currently require per-setting epidemiological parameterisation to inform their use in economic evaluation, which may limit their generalisability. We found no economic evaluation based on transmission dynamic modelling, and no

Modeling the Dynamic Transmission of Dengue Fever: Investigating Disease Persistence

PubMed Central

Medeiros, Líliam César de Castro; Castilho, César Augusto Rodrigues; Braga, Cynthia; de Souza, Wayner Vieira; Regis, Leda; Monteiro, Antonio Miguel Vieira

2011-01-01

Background Dengue is a disease of great complexity, due to interactions between humans, mosquitoes and various virus serotypes as well as efficient vector survival strategies. Thus, understanding the factors influencing the persistence of the disease has been a challenge for scientists and policy makers. The aim of this study is to investigate the influence of various factors related to humans and vectors in the maintenance of viral transmission during extended periods. Methodology/Principal Findings We developed a stochastic cellular automata model to simulate the spread of dengue fever in a dense community. Each cell can correspond to a built area, and human and mosquito populations are individually monitored during the simulations. Human mobility and renewal, as well as vector infestation, are taken into consideration. To investigate the factors influencing the maintenance of viral circulation, two sets of simulations were performed: (1st) varying human renewal rates and human population sizes and (2nd) varying the house index (fraction of infested buildings) and vector per human ratio. We found that viral transmission is inhibited with the combination of small human populations with low renewal rates. It is also shown that maintenance of viral circulation for extended periods is possible at low values of house index. Based on the results of the model and on a study conducted in the city of Recife, Brazil, which associates vector infestation with Aedes aegytpi egg counts, we question the current methodology used in calculating the house index, based on larval survey. Conclusions/Significance This study contributed to a better understanding of the dynamics of dengue subsistence. Using basic concepts of metapopulations, we concluded that low infestation rates in a few neighborhoods ensure the persistence of dengue in large cities and suggested that better strategies should be implemented to obtain measures of house index values, in order to improve the dengue

The Genealogical Population Dynamics of HIV-1 in a Large Transmission Chain: Bridging within and among Host Evolutionary Rates

PubMed Central

Vrancken, Bram; Rambaut, Andrew; Suchard, Marc A.; Drummond, Alexei; Baele, Guy; Derdelinckx, Inge; Van Wijngaerden, Eric; Vandamme, Anne-Mieke; Van Laethem, Kristel; Lemey, Philippe

2014-01-01

Transmission lies at the interface of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) evolution within and among hosts and separates distinct selective pressures that impose differences in both the mode of diversification and the tempo of evolution. In the absence of comprehensive direct comparative analyses of the evolutionary processes at different biological scales, our understanding of how fast within-host HIV-1 evolutionary rates translate to lower rates at the between host level remains incomplete. Here, we address this by analyzing pol and env data from a large HIV-1 subtype C transmission chain for which both the timing and the direction is known for most transmission events. To this purpose, we develop a new transmission model in a Bayesian genealogical inference framework and demonstrate how to constrain the viral evolutionary history to be compatible with the transmission history while simultaneously inferring the within-host evolutionary and population dynamics. We show that accommodating a transmission bottleneck affords the best fit our data, but the sparse within-host HIV-1 sampling prevents accurate quantification of the concomitant loss in genetic diversity. We draw inference under the transmission model to estimate HIV-1 evolutionary rates among epidemiologically-related patients and demonstrate that they lie in between fast intra-host rates and lower rates among epidemiologically unrelated individuals infected with HIV subtype C. Using a new molecular clock approach, we quantify and find support for a lower evolutionary rate along branches that accommodate a transmission event or branches that represent the entire backbone of transmitted lineages in our transmission history. Finally, we recover the rate differences at the different biological scales for both synonymous and non-synonymous substitution rates, which is only compatible with the ‘store and retrieve’ hypothesis positing that viruses stored early in latently infected cells

Transmission of Hepatitis E Virus in Developing Countries

PubMed Central

Khuroo, Mohammad S.; Khuroo, Mehnaaz S.; Khuroo, Naira S.

2016-01-01

Hepatitis E virus (HEV), an RNA virus of the Hepeviridae family, has marked heterogeneity. While all five HEV genotypes can cause human infections, genotypes HEV-1 and -2 infect humans alone, genotypes HEV-3 and -4 primarily infect pigs, boars and deer, and genotype HEV-7 primarily infects dromedaries. The global distribution of HEV has distinct epidemiological patterns based on ecology and socioeconomic factors. In resource-poor countries, disease presents as large-scale waterborne epidemics, and few epidemics have spread through person-to-person contact; however, endemic diseases within these countries can potentially spread through person-to-person contact or fecally contaminated water and foods. Vertical transmission of HEV from infected mother to fetus causes high fetal and perinatal mortality. Other means of transmission, such as zoonotic transmission, can fluctuate depending upon the region and strain of the virus. For instance, zoonotic transmission can sometimes play an insignificant role in human infections, such as in India, where human and pig HEV infections are unrelated. However, recently China and Southeast Asia have experienced a zoonotic spread of HEV-4 from pigs to humans and this has become the dominant mode of transmission of hepatitis E in eastern China. Zoonotic HEV infections in humans occur by eating undercooked pig flesh, raw liver, and sausages; through vocational contact; or via pig slurry, which leads to environmental contamination of agricultural products and seafood. Lastly, blood transfusion-associated HEV infections occur in many countries and screening of donors for HEV RNA is currently under serious consideration. To summarize, HEV genotypes 1 and 2 cause epidemic and endemic diseases in resource poor countries, primarily spreading through contaminated drinking water. HEV genotypes 3 and 4 on the other hand, cause autochthonous infections in developed, and many developing countries, by means of a unique zoonotic food

Genomics reveals historic and contemporary transmission dynamics of a bacterial disease among wildlife and livestock

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kamath, Pauline L.; Foster, Jeffrey T.; Drees, Kevin P.; Luikart, Gordon; Quance, Christine; Anderson, Neil J.; Clarke, P. Ryan; Cole, Eric K.; Drew, Mark L.; Edwards, William H.; Rhyan, Jack C.; Treanor, John J.; Wallen, Rick L.; White, Patrick J.; Robbe-Austerman, Suelee; Cross, Paul C.

2016-01-01

Whole-genome sequencing has provided fundamental insights into infectious disease epidemiology, but has rarely been used for examining transmission dynamics of a bacterial pathogen in wildlife. In the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), outbreaks of brucellosis have increased in cattle along with rising seroprevalence in elk. Here we use a genomic approach to examine Brucella abortus evolution, cross-species transmission and spatial spread in the GYE. We find that brucellosis was introduced into wildlife in this region at least five times. The diffusion rate varies among Brucella lineages (B3 to 8 km per year) and over time. We also estimate 12 host transitions from bison to elk, and 5 from elk to bison. Our results support the notion that free-ranging elk are currently a self-sustaining brucellosis reservoir and the source of livestock infections, and that control measures in bison are unlikely to affect the dynamics of unrelated strains circulating in nearby elk populations.

Seasonality Impact on the Transmission Dynamics of Tuberculosis

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

The statistical data of monthly pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) incidence cases from January 2004 to December 2012 show the seasonality fluctuations in Shaanxi of China. A seasonality TB epidemic model with periodic varying contact rate, reactivation rate, and disease-induced death rate is proposed to explore the impact of seasonality on the transmission dynamics of TB. Simulations show that the basic reproduction number of time-averaged autonomous systems may underestimate or overestimate infection risks in some cases, which may be up to the value of period. The basic reproduction number of the seasonality model is appropriately given, which determines the extinction and uniform persistence of TB disease. If it is less than one, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable; if it is greater than one, the system at least has a positive periodic solution and the disease will persist. Moreover, numerical simulations demonstrate these theorem results. PMID:27042199

Cost-effectiveness of dengue vaccination in Yucatán, Mexico using a dynamic dengue transmission model

PubMed Central

Shim, Eunha

2017-01-01

Background The incidence of dengue fever (DF) is steadily increasing in Mexico, burdening health systems with consequent morbidities and mortalities. On December 9th, 2015, Mexico became the first country for which the dengue vaccine was approved for use. In anticipation of a vaccine rollout, analysis of the cost-effectiveness of the dengue vaccination program that quantifies the dynamics of disease transmission is essential. Methods We developed a dynamic transmission model of dengue in Yucatán, Mexico and its proposed vaccination program to incorporate herd immunity into our analysis of cost-effectiveness analysis. Our model also incorporates important characteristics of dengue epidemiology, such as clinical cross-immunity and susceptibility enhancement upon secondary infection. Using our model, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness and economic impact of an imperfect dengue vaccine in Yucatán, Mexico. Conclusions Our study indicates that a dengue vaccination program would prevent 90% of cases of symptomatic DF incidence as well as 90% of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) incidence and dengue-related deaths annually. We conclude that a dengue vaccine program in Yucatán, Mexico would be very cost-effective as long as the vaccination cost per individual is less than $140 and $214 from health care and societal perspectives, respectively. Furthermore, at an exemplary vaccination cost of $250 USD per individual on average, dengue vaccination is likely to be cost-effective 43% and 88% of the time from health care and societal perspectives, respectively. PMID:28380060

Cost-effectiveness of dengue vaccination in Yucatán, Mexico using a dynamic dengue transmission model.

PubMed

Shim, Eunha

2017-01-01

The incidence of dengue fever (DF) is steadily increasing in Mexico, burdening health systems with consequent morbidities and mortalities. On December 9th, 2015, Mexico became the first country for which the dengue vaccine was approved for use. In anticipation of a vaccine rollout, analysis of the cost-effectiveness of the dengue vaccination program that quantifies the dynamics of disease transmission is essential. We developed a dynamic transmission model of dengue in Yucatán, Mexico and its proposed vaccination program to incorporate herd immunity into our analysis of cost-effectiveness analysis. Our model also incorporates important characteristics of dengue epidemiology, such as clinical cross-immunity and susceptibility enhancement upon secondary infection. Using our model, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness and economic impact of an imperfect dengue vaccine in Yucatán, Mexico. Our study indicates that a dengue vaccination program would prevent 90% of cases of symptomatic DF incidence as well as 90% of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) incidence and dengue-related deaths annually. We conclude that a dengue vaccine program in Yucatán, Mexico would be very cost-effective as long as the vaccination cost per individual is less than $140 and $214 from health care and societal perspectives, respectively. Furthermore, at an exemplary vaccination cost of $250 USD per individual on average, dengue vaccination is likely to be cost-effective 43% and 88% of the time from health care and societal perspectives, respectively.

A fuzzy-theory-based method for studying the effect of information transmission on nonlinear crowd dispersion dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Libi; Song, Weiguo; Lo, Siuming

2017-01-01

Emergencies involved in mass events are related to a variety of factors and processes. An important factor is the transmission of information on danger that has an influence on nonlinear crowd dynamics during the process of crowd dispersion. Due to much uncertainty in this process, there is an urgent need to propose a method to investigate the influence. In this paper, a novel fuzzy-theory-based method is presented to study crowd dynamics under the influence of information transmission. Fuzzy functions and rules are designed for the ambiguous description of human states. Reasonable inference is employed to decide the output values of decision making such as pedestrian movement speed and directions. Through simulation under four-way pedestrian situations, good crowd dispersion phenomena are achieved. Simulation results under different conditions demonstrate that information transmission cannot always induce successful crowd dispersion in all situations. This depends on whether decision strategies in response to information on danger are unified and effective, especially in dense crowds. Results also suggest that an increase in drift strength at low density and the percentage of pedestrians, who choose one of the furthest unoccupied Von Neumann neighbors from the dangerous source as the drift direction at high density, is helpful in crowd dispersion. Compared with previous work, our comprehensive study improves an in-depth understanding of nonlinear crowd dynamics under the effect of information on danger.

Evaluation of power system security and development of transmission pricing method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Hyungchul

The electric power utility industry is presently undergoing a change towards the deregulated environment. This has resulted in unbundling of generation, transmission and distribution services. The introduction of competition into unbundled electricity services may lead system operation closer to its security boundaries resulting in smaller operating safety margins. The competitive environment is expected to lead to lower price rates for customers and higher efficiency for power suppliers in the long run. Under this deregulated environment, security assessment and pricing of transmission services have become important issues in power systems. This dissertation provides new methods for power system security assessment and transmission pricing. In power system security assessment, the following issues are discussed (1) The description of probabilistic methods for power system security assessment; (2) The computation time of simulation methods; (3) on-line security assessment for operation. A probabilistic method using Monte-Carlo simulation is proposed for power system security assessment. This method takes into account dynamic and static effects corresponding to contingencies. Two different Kohonen networks, Self-Organizing Maps and Learning Vector Quantization, are employed to speed up the probabilistic method. The combination of Kohonen networks and Monte-Carlo simulation can reduce computation time in comparison with straight Monte-Carlo simulation. A technique for security assessment employing Bayes classifier is also proposed. This method can be useful for system operators to make security decisions during on-line power system operation. This dissertation also suggests an approach for allocating transmission transaction costs based on reliability benefits in transmission services. The proposed method shows the transmission transaction cost of reliability benefits when transmission line capacities are considered. The ratio between allocation by transmission line

Parameterization and Sensitivity Analysis of a Complex Simulation Model for Mosquito Population Dynamics, Dengue Transmission, and Their Control

PubMed Central

Ellis, Alicia M.; Garcia, Andres J.; Focks, Dana A.; Morrison, Amy C.; Scott, Thomas W.

2011-01-01

Models can be useful tools for understanding the dynamics and control of mosquito-borne disease. More detailed models may be more realistic and better suited for understanding local disease dynamics; however, evaluating model suitability, accuracy, and performance becomes increasingly difficult with greater model complexity. Sensitivity analysis is a technique that permits exploration of complex models by evaluating the sensitivity of the model to changes in parameters. Here, we present results of sensitivity analyses of two interrelated complex simulation models of mosquito population dynamics and dengue transmission. We found that dengue transmission may be influenced most by survival in each life stage of the mosquito, mosquito biting behavior, and duration of the infectious period in humans. The importance of these biological processes for vector-borne disease models and the overwhelming lack of knowledge about them make acquisition of relevant field data on these biological processes a top research priority. PMID:21813844

Transmission dynamics and changing epidemiology of West Nile virus.

PubMed

Blitvich, Bradley J

2008-06-01

West Nile virus (WNV) is a flavivirus that is maintained in a bird-mosquito transmission cycle. Humans, horses and other non-avian vertebrates are usually incidental hosts, but evidence is accumulating that this might not always be the case. Historically, WNV has been associated with asymptomatic infections and sporadic disease outbreaks in humans and horses in Africa, Europe, Asia and Australia. However, since 1994, the virus has caused frequent outbreaks of severe neuroinvasive disease in humans and horses in Europe and the Mediterranean Basin. In 1999, WNV underwent a dramatic expansion of its geographic range, and was reported for the first time in the Western Hemisphere during an outbreak of human and equine encephalitis in New York City. The outbreak was accompanied by extensive and unprecedented avian mortality. Since then, WNV has dispersed across the Western Hemisphere and is now found throughout the USA, Canada, Mexico and the Caribbean, and parts of Central and South America. WNV has been responsible for >27,000 human cases, >25,000 equine cases and hundreds of thousands of avian deaths in the USA but, surprisingly, there have been only sparse reports of WNV disease in vertebrates in the Caribbean and Latin America. This review summarizes our current understanding of WNV with particular emphasis on its transmission dynamics and changing epidemiology.

Computer-aided Instructional System for Transmission Line Simulation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reinhard, Erwin A.; Roth, Charles H., Jr.

A computer-aided instructional system has been developed which utilizes dynamic computer-controlled graphic displays and which requires student interaction with a computer simulation in an instructional mode. A numerical scheme has been developed for digital simulation of a uniform, distortionless transmission line with resistive terminations and…

Comprehensive Modeling and Analysis of Rotorcraft Variable Speed Propulsion System With Coupled Engine/Transmission/Rotor Dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeSmidt, Hans A.; Smith, Edward C.; Bill, Robert C.; Wang, Kon-Well

2013-01-01

This project develops comprehensive modeling and simulation tools for analysis of variable rotor speed helicopter propulsion system dynamics. The Comprehensive Variable-Speed Rotorcraft Propulsion Modeling (CVSRPM) tool developed in this research is used to investigate coupled rotor/engine/fuel control/gearbox/shaft/clutch/flight control system dynamic interactions for several variable rotor speed mission scenarios. In this investigation, a prototypical two-speed Dual-Clutch Transmission (DCT) is proposed and designed to achieve 50 percent rotor speed variation. The comprehensive modeling tool developed in this study is utilized to analyze the two-speed shift response of both a conventional single rotor helicopter and a tiltrotor drive system. In the tiltrotor system, both a Parallel Shift Control (PSC) strategy and a Sequential Shift Control (SSC) strategy for constant and variable forward speed mission profiles are analyzed. Under the PSC strategy, selecting clutch shift-rate results in a design tradeoff between transient engine surge margins and clutch frictional power dissipation. In the case of SSC, clutch power dissipation is drastically reduced in exchange for the necessity to disengage one engine at a time which requires a multi-DCT drive system topology. In addition to comprehensive simulations, several sections are dedicated to detailed analysis of driveline subsystem components under variable speed operation. In particular an aeroelastic simulation of a stiff in-plane rotor using nonlinear quasi-steady blade element theory was conducted to investigate variable speed rotor dynamics. It was found that 2/rev and 4/rev flap and lag vibrations were significant during resonance crossings with 4/rev lagwise loads being directly transferred into drive-system torque disturbances. To capture the clutch engagement dynamics, a nonlinear stick-slip clutch torque model is developed. Also, a transient gas-turbine engine model based on first principles mean

Nonlinear Dynamics of a Multistage Gear Transmission System with Multi-Clearance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiang, Ling; Zhang, Yue; Gao, Nan; Hu, Aijun; Xing, Jingtang

The nonlinear torsional model of a multistage gear transmission system which consists of a planetary gear and two parallel gear stages is established with time-varying meshing stiffness, comprehensive gear error and multi-clearance. The nonlinear dynamic responses are analyzed by applying the reference of backlash bifurcation parameters. The motions of the system on the change of backlash are identified through global bifurcation diagram, largest Lyapunov exponent (LLE), FFT spectra, Poincaré maps, the phase diagrams and time series. The numerical results demonstrate that the system exhibits rich features of nonlinear dynamics such as the periodic motion, nonperiodic states and chaotic states. It is found that the sun-planet backlash has more complex effect on the system than the ring-planet backlash. The motions of the system with backlash of parallel gear are diverse including some different multi-periodic motions. Furthermore, the state of the system can change from chaos into quasi-periodic behavior, which means that the dynamic behavior of the system is composed of more stable components with the increase of the backlash. Correspondingly, the parameters of the system should be designed properly and controlled timely for better operation and enhancing the life of the system.

Analyzing transmission dynamics of cholera with public health interventions.

PubMed

Posny, Drew; Wang, Jin; Mukandavire, Zindoga; Modnak, Chairat

2015-06-01

Cholera continues to be a serious public health concern in developing countries and the global increase in the number of reported outbreaks suggests that activities to control the diseases and surveillance programs to identify or predict the occurrence of the next outbreaks are not adequate. These outbreaks have increased in frequency, severity, duration and endemicity in recent years. Mathematical models for infectious diseases play a critical role in predicting and understanding disease mechanisms, and have long provided basic insights in the possible ways to control infectious diseases. In this paper, we present a new deterministic cholera epidemiological model with three types of control measures incorporated into a cholera epidemic setting: treatment, vaccination and sanitation. Essential dynamical properties of the model with constant intervention controls which include local and global stabilities for the equilibria are carefully analyzed. Further, using optimal control techniques, we perform a study to investigate cost-effective solutions for time-dependent public health interventions in order to curb disease transmission in epidemic settings. Our results show that the basic reproductive number (R0) remains the model's epidemic threshold despite the inclusion of a package of cholera interventions. For time-dependent controls, the results suggest that these interventions closely interplay with each other, and the costs of controls directly affect the length and strength of each control in an optimal strategy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multi-Body Dynamic Contact Analysis. Tool for Transmission Design SBIR Phase II Final Report

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-04-01

shapes and natural frequencies were computed in COSMIC NASTRAN, and were validated against the published experimental modal analysis [17]. • Using...COSMIC NASTRAN via modal superposition. • Results from the structural analysis (mode shapes or forced response) were converted into IDEAS universal...ARMY RESEARCH LABORATORY Multi-body Dynamic Contact Analysis Tool for Transmission Design SBIR Phase II Final Report by

Transmission dynamics of schistosomiasis in Zimbabwe: A mathematical and GIS Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ngarakana-Gwasira, E. T.; Bhunu, C. P.; Masocha, M.; Mashonjowa, E.

2016-06-01

Temperature and presence of water bodies are known to influence the transmission dynamics of schistosomiasis. In this work, effects of water bodies (taken in context of rainfall patterns) and temperature from 1950 to 2000 are considered in the model. With the aid of Geographic Information System (GIS), the reproduction number is mapped on the Zimbabwean country. Results of the mapping show high reproduction numbers along the Lowveld and the Zambezi valley catchment area. High reproduction numbers suggest high levels of schistosomiasis. This result suggests more control efforts should be targeted in these areas with high reproduction numbers.

Transmission Dynamics of the Four Dengue Serotypes in Southern Vietnam and the Potential Impact of Vaccination

PubMed Central

Coudeville, Laurent; Garnett, Geoff P.

2012-01-01

Background With approximately 2.5 billion people at risk, dengue is a major international public health concern. Dengue vaccines currently in development should help reduce the burden associated with this disease but the most efficient way of using future dengue vaccines remains to be defined. Mathematical models of transmission can provide insight into the expected impact of different vaccination strategies at a population level and contribute to this definition. Methods and Findings We developed and analyzed an age-structured, host-vector and serotype-specific compartmental model, including seasonality. We first used this transmission model to identify the immunological interactions between serotypes that affect the risks and consequences of secondary infections (cross-protection, increased susceptibility, increased severity, and increased infectiousness) and reproduce the observed epidemiology of dengue. For populating this model, we used routine surveillance data from Southern Vietnam and the results of a prospective cohort study conducted in the same area. The model provided a good fit to the observed data for age, severity of cases, serotype distribution, and dynamics over time, using two scenarios of immunological interaction : short term cross-protection alone (6–17 months) or a combination of short term cross-protection with cross-enhancement (increased susceptibility, severity and infectiousness in the case of secondary infections). Finally, we explored the potential impact of vaccination for these two scenarios. Both highlighted that vaccination can substantially decrease dengue burden by reducing the magnitude and frequency of outbreaks. Conclusion Our model suggests that seasonality and short term cross-protection are key factors for explaining dengue dynamics in Southern Vietnam. Vaccination was predicted to significantly reduce the disease burden, even in the situation where immunological cross-enhancement affects the risks and consequences of

A non-linear mathematical model for dynamic analysis of spur gears including shaft and bearing dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ozguven, H. Nevzat

1991-01-01

A six-degree-of-freedom nonlinear semi-definite model with time varying mesh stiffness has been developed for the dynamic analysis of spur gears. The model includes a spur gear pair, two shafts, two inertias representing load and prime mover, and bearings. As the shaft and bearing dynamics have also been considered in the model, the effect of lateral-torsional vibration coupling on the dynamics of gears can be studied. In the nonlinear model developed several factors such as time varying mesh stiffness and damping, separation of teeth, backlash, single- and double-sided impacts, various gear errors and profile modifications have been considered. The dynamic response to internal excitation has been calculated by using the 'static transmission error method' developed. The software prepared (DYTEM) employs the digital simulation technique for the solution, and is capable of calculating dynamic tooth and mesh forces, dynamic factors for pinion and gear, dynamic transmission error, dynamic bearing forces and torsions of shafts. Numerical examples are given in order to demonstrate the effect of shaft and bearing dynamics on gear dynamics.

Modeling social transmission dynamics of unhealthy behaviors for evaluating prevention and treatment interventions on childhood obesity.

PubMed

Frerichs, Leah M; Araz, Ozgur M; Huang, Terry T-K

2013-01-01

Research evidence indicates that obesity has spread through social networks, but lever points for interventions based on overlapping networks are not well studied. The objective of our research was to construct and parameterize a system dynamics model of the social transmission of behaviors through adult and youth influence in order to explore hypotheses and identify plausible lever points for future childhood obesity intervention research. Our objectives were: (1) to assess the sensitivity of childhood overweight and obesity prevalence to peer and adult social transmission rates, and (2) to test the effect of combinations of prevention and treatment interventions on the prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity. To address the first objective, we conducted two-way sensitivity analyses of adult-to-child and child-to-child social transmission in relation to childhood overweight and obesity prevalence. For the second objective, alternative combinations of prevention and treatment interventions were tested by varying model parameters of social transmission and weight loss behavior rates. Our results indicated child overweight and obesity prevalence might be slightly more sensitive to the same relative change in the adult-to-child compared to the child-to-child social transmission rate. In our simulations, alternatives with treatment alone, compared to prevention alone, reduced the prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity more after 10 years (1.2-1.8% and 0.2-1.0% greater reduction when targeted at children and adults respectively). Also, as the impact of adult interventions on children was increased, the rank of six alternatives that included adults became better (i.e., resulting in lower 10 year childhood overweight and obesity prevalence) than alternatives that only involved children. The findings imply that social transmission dynamics should be considered when designing both prevention and treatment intervention approaches. Finally, targeting adults may

Modeling Social Transmission Dynamics of Unhealthy Behaviors for Evaluating Prevention and Treatment Interventions on Childhood Obesity

PubMed Central

Frerichs, Leah M.; Araz, Ozgur M.; Huang, Terry T. – K.

2013-01-01

Research evidence indicates that obesity has spread through social networks, but lever points for interventions based on overlapping networks are not well studied. The objective of our research was to construct and parameterize a system dynamics model of the social transmission of behaviors through adult and youth influence in order to explore hypotheses and identify plausible lever points for future childhood obesity intervention research. Our objectives were: (1) to assess the sensitivity of childhood overweight and obesity prevalence to peer and adult social transmission rates, and (2) to test the effect of combinations of prevention and treatment interventions on the prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity. To address the first objective, we conducted two-way sensitivity analyses of adult-to-child and child-to-child social transmission in relation to childhood overweight and obesity prevalence. For the second objective, alternative combinations of prevention and treatment interventions were tested by varying model parameters of social transmission and weight loss behavior rates. Our results indicated child overweight and obesity prevalence might be slightly more sensitive to the same relative change in the adult-to-child compared to the child-to-child social transmission rate. In our simulations, alternatives with treatment alone, compared to prevention alone, reduced the prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity more after 10 years (1.2–1.8% and 0.2–1.0% greater reduction when targeted at children and adults respectively). Also, as the impact of adult interventions on children was increased, the rank of six alternatives that included adults became better (i.e., resulting in lower 10 year childhood overweight and obesity prevalence) than alternatives that only involved children. The findings imply that social transmission dynamics should be considered when designing both prevention and treatment intervention approaches. Finally, targeting adults

Does interspecific competition have a moderating effect on Taenia solium transmission dynamics in Southeast Asia?

PubMed

Conlan, James V; Vongxay, Khamphouth; Fenwick, Stanley; Blacksell, Stuart D; Thompson, R C Andrew

2009-09-01

It is well understood that sociocultural practices strongly influence Taenia solium transmission; however, the extent to which interspecific parasite competition moderates Taenia transmission has yet to be determined. This is certainly the case in Southeast Asia where T. solium faces competition in both the definitive host (people) and the intermediate host (pigs). In people, adult worms of T. solium, T. saginata and T. asiatica compete through density-dependent crowding mechanisms. In pigs, metacestodes of T. solium, T. hydatigena and T. asiatica compete through density-dependent immune-mediated interactions. Here, we describe the biological and epidemiological implications of Taenia competition and propose that interspecific competition has a moderating effect on the transmission dynamics of T. solium in the region. Furthermore, we argue that this competitive ecological scenario should be considered in future research and surveillance activities examining T. solium cysticercosis and taeniasis in Southeast Asia.

Performance Analysis of Control Signal Transmission Technique for Cognitive Radios in Dynamic Spectrum Access Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakata, Ren; Tomioka, Tazuko; Kobayashi, Takahiro

When cognitive radio (CR) systems dynamically use the frequency band, a control signal is necessary to indicate which carrier frequencies are currently available in the network. In order to keep efficient spectrum utilization, this control signal also should be transmitted based on the channel conditions. If transmitters dynamically select carrier frequencies, receivers have to receive control signals without knowledge of their carrier frequencies. To enable such transmission and reception, this paper proposes a novel scheme called DCPT (Differential Code Parallel Transmission). With DCPT, receivers can receive low-rate information with no knowledge of the carrier frequencies. The transmitter transmits two signals whose carrier frequencies are spaced by a predefined value. The absolute values of the carrier frequencies can be varied. When the receiver acquires the DCPT signal, it multiplies the signal by a frequency-shifted version of the signal; this yields a DC component that represents the data signal which is then demodulated. The performance was evaluated by means of numerical analysis and computer simulation. We confirmed that DCPT operates successfully even under severe interference if its parameters are appropriately configured.

Dynamic Transmit-Receive Beamforming by Spatial Matched Filtering for Ultrasound Imaging with Plane Wave Transmission.

PubMed

Chen, Yuling; Lou, Yang; Yen, Jesse

2017-07-01

During conventional ultrasound imaging, the need for multiple transmissions for one image and the time of flight for a desired imaging depth limit the frame rate of the system. Using a single plane wave pulse during each transmission followed by parallel receive processing allows for high frame rate imaging. However, image quality is degraded because of the lack of transmit focusing. Beamforming by spatial matched filtering (SMF) is a promising method which focuses ultrasonic energy using spatial filters constructed from the transmit-receive impulse response of the system. Studies by other researchers have shown that SMF beamforming can provide dynamic transmit-receive focusing throughout the field of view. In this paper, we apply SMF beamforming to plane wave transmissions (PWTs) to achieve both dynamic transmit-receive focusing at all imaging depths and high imaging frame rate (>5000 frames per second). We demonstrated the capability of the combined method (PWT + SMF) of achieving two-way focusing mathematically through analysis based on the narrowband Rayleigh-Sommerfeld diffraction theory. Moreover, the broadband performance of PWT + SMF was quantified in terms of lateral resolution and contrast from both computer simulations and experimental data. Results were compared between SMF beamforming and conventional delay-and-sum (DAS) beamforming in both simulations and experiments. At an imaging depth of 40 mm, simulation results showed a 29% lateral resolution improvement and a 160% contrast improvement with PWT + SMF. These improvements were 17% and 48% for experimental data with noise.

Experimental pig-to-pig transmission dynamics for African swine fever virus, Georgia 2007/1 strain.

PubMed

Guinat, C; Gubbins, S; Vergne, T; Gonzales, J L; Dixon, L; Pfeiffer, D U

2016-01-01

African swine fever virus (ASFV) continues to cause outbreaks in domestic pigs and wild boar in Eastern European countries. To gain insights into its transmission dynamics, we estimated the pig-to-pig basic reproduction number (R 0) for the Georgia 2007/1 ASFV strain using a stochastic susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model with parameters estimated from transmission experiments. Models showed that R 0 is 2·8 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1·3-4·8] within a pen and 1·4 (95% CI 0·6-2·4) between pens. The results furthermore suggest that ASFV genome detection in oronasal samples is an effective diagnostic tool for early detection of infection. This study provides quantitative information on transmission parameters for ASFV in domestic pigs, which are required to more effectively assess the potential impact of strategies for the control of between-farm epidemic spread in European countries.

Wolbachia transmission dynamics in Formica wood ants

PubMed Central

2008-01-01

Background The role of Wolbachia endosymbionts in shaping the mitochondrial diversity of their arthropod host depends on the effects they have on host reproduction and on the mode of transmission of the bacteria. We have compared the sequence diversity of wsp (Wolbachia surface protein gene) and the host mtDNA in a group of Formica ant species that have diverged approximately 0.5 million years ago (MYA). The aim was to study the relationship of Wolbachia and its ant hosts in terms of vertical and horizontal transmission of the bacteria. Results All studied ant species were doubly infected with two Wolbachia strains (wFex1 and wFex4) all over their geographical distribution area in Eurasia. The most common haplotypes of these strains were identical with strains previously described from a more distantly related Formica ant, with an estimated divergence time of 3.5 – 4 MYA. Some strain haplotypes were associated to the same or closely related mtDNA haplotypes as expected under vertical transmission. However, in several cases the wsp haplotypes coexisted with distant mtDNA haplotypes, a pattern which is more compatible with horizontal transmission of the bacteria. Conclusion Two lines of evidence suggest that the sharing of Wolbachia strains by all F. rufa species is rather due to horizontal than vertical transmission. First, the fact that endosymbiont strains identical to those of F. rufa ants have been found in another species that diverged 3.5–4 MYA strongly suggests that horizontal transfer can and does occur between Formica ants. Second, the frequent sharing of identical Wolbachia strains by distant mitochondrial lineages within the F. rufa group further shows that horizontal transmission has occurred repeatedly. Nevertheless, our dataset also provides some evidence for longer-term persistence of infection, indicating that Wolbachia infection within this host clade has been shaped by both horizontal and vertical transmission of symbionts. The fact that all

Force transmissibility versus displacement transmissibility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lage, Y. E.; Neves, M. M.; Maia, N. M. M.; Tcherniak, D.

2014-10-01

It is well-known that when a single-degree-of-freedom (sdof) system is excited by a continuous motion of the foundation, the force transmissibility, relating the force transmitted to the foundation to the applied force, equals the displacement transmissibility. Recent developments in the generalization of the transmissibility to multiple-degree-of-freedom (mdof) systems have shown that similar simple and direct relations between both types of transmissibility do not appear naturally from the definitions, as happens in the sdof case. In this paper, the authors present their studies on the conditions under which it is possible to establish a relation between force transmissibility and displacement transmissibility for mdof systems. As far as the authors are aware, such a relation is not currently found in the literature, which is justified by being based on recent developments in the transmissibility concept for mdof systems. Indeed, it does not appear naturally, but the authors observed that the needed link is present when the displacement transmissibility is obtained between the same coordinates where the applied and reaction forces are considered in the force transmissibility case; this implies that the boundary conditions are not exactly the same and instead follow some rules. This work presents a formal derivation of the explicit relation between the force and displacement transmissibilities for mdof systems, and discusses its potential and limitations. The authors show that it is possible to obtain the displacement transmissibility from measured forces, and the force transmissibility from measured displacements, opening new perspectives, for example, in the identification of applied or transmitted forces. With this novel relation, it becomes possible, for example, to estimate the force transmissibility matrix with the structure off its supports, in free boundary conditions, and without measuring the forces. As far as force identification is concerned, this

Effects of gear box vibration and mass imbalance on the dynamics of multistage gear transmission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choy, F. K.; Tu, Y. K.; Zakrajsek, J. J.; Townsend, D. P.

1991-01-01

The dynamic behavior of multistage gear transmission system, with the effects of gear-box-induced vibrations and rotor mass-imbalances is analyzed. The model method, using undamped frequencies and planar mode shapes, is used to reduce the degree-of-freedom of the system. The various rotor-bearing stages as well as lateral and torsional vibrations of each individual stage are coupled through localized gear-mesh-tooth interactions. Gear-box vibrations are coupled to the gear stage dynamics through bearing support forces. Transient and steady state dynamics of lateral and torsional vibrations of the geared system are examined in both time and frequency domain. A typical three-staged geared system is used as an example. Effects of mass-imbalance and gear box vibrations on the system dynamic behavior are presented in terms of modal excitation functions for both lateral and torsional vibrations. Operational characteristics and conclusions are drawn from the results presented.

Dynamics of African swine fever virus shedding and excretion in domestic pigs infected by intramuscular inoculation and contact transmission.

PubMed

Guinat, Claire; Reis, Ana Luisa; Netherton, Christopher L; Goatley, Lynnette; Pfeiffer, Dirk U; Dixon, Linda

2014-09-26

African swine fever virus (ASFV) is a highly virulent swine pathogen that has spread across Eastern Europe since 2007 and for which there is no effective vaccine or treatment available. The dynamics of shedding and excretion is not well known for this currently circulating ASFV strain. Therefore, susceptible pigs were exposed to pigs intramuscularly infected with the Georgia 2007/1 ASFV strain to measure those dynamics through within- and between-pen transmission scenarios. Blood, oral, nasal and rectal fluid samples were tested for the presence of ASFV by virus titration (VT) and quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR). Serum was tested for the presence of ASFV-specific antibodies. Both intramuscular inoculation and contact transmission resulted in development of acute disease in all pigs although the experiments indicated that the pathogenesis of the disease might be different, depending on the route of infection. Infectious ASFV was first isolated in blood among the inoculated pigs by day 3, and then chronologically among the direct and indirect contact pigs, by day 10 and 13, respectively. Close to the onset of clinical signs, higher ASFV titres were found in blood compared with nasal and rectal fluid samples among all pigs. No infectious ASFV was isolated in oral fluid samples although ASFV genome copies were detected. Only one animal developed antibodies starting after 12 days post-inoculation. The results provide quantitative data on shedding and excretion of the Georgia 2007/1 ASFV strain among domestic pigs and suggest a limited potential of this isolate to cause persistent infection.

Dynamic, spatial models of parasite transmission in wildlife: Their structure, applications and remaining challenges.

PubMed

White, Lauren A; Forester, James D; Craft, Meggan E

2018-05-01

Individual differences in contact rate can arise from host, group and landscape heterogeneity and can result in different patterns of spatial spread for diseases in wildlife populations with concomitant implications for disease control in wildlife of conservation concern, livestock and humans. While dynamic disease models can provide a better understanding of the drivers of spatial spread, the effects of landscape heterogeneity have only been modelled in a few well-studied wildlife systems such as rabies and bovine tuberculosis. Such spatial models tend to be either purely theoretical with intrinsic limiting assumptions or individual-based models that are often highly species- and system-specific, limiting the breadth of their utility. Our goal was to review studies that have utilized dynamic, spatial models to answer questions about pathogen transmission in wildlife and identify key gaps in the literature. We begin by providing an overview of the main types of dynamic, spatial models (e.g., metapopulation, network, lattice, cellular automata, individual-based and continuous-space) and their relation to each other. We investigate different types of ecological questions that these models have been used to explore: pathogen invasion dynamics and range expansion, spatial heterogeneity and pathogen persistence, the implications of management and intervention strategies and the role of evolution in host-pathogen dynamics. We reviewed 168 studies that consider pathogen transmission in free-ranging wildlife and classify them by the model type employed, the focal host-pathogen system, and their overall research themes and motivation. We observed a significant focus on mammalian hosts, a few well-studied or purely theoretical pathogen systems, and a lack of studies occurring at the wildlife-public health or wildlife-livestock interfaces. Finally, we discuss challenges and future directions in the context of unprecedented human-mediated environmental change. Spatial models

A weather-driven model of malaria transmission.

PubMed

Hoshen, Moshe B; Morse, Andrew P

2004-09-06

Climate is a major driving force behind malaria transmission and climate data are often used to account for the spatial, seasonal and interannual variation in malaria transmission. This paper describes a mathematical-biological model of the parasite dynamics, comprising both the weather-dependent within-vector stages and the weather-independent within-host stages. Numerical evaluations of the model in both time and space show that it qualitatively reconstructs the prevalence of infection. A process-based modelling structure has been developed that may be suitable for the simulation of malaria forecasts based on seasonal weather forecasts.

Phase synchronization motion and neural coding in dynamic transmission of neural information.

PubMed

Wang, Rubin; Zhang, Zhikang; Qu, Jingyi; Cao, Jianting

2011-07-01

In order to explore the dynamic characteristics of neural coding in the transmission of neural information in the brain, a model of neural network consisting of three neuronal populations is proposed in this paper using the theory of stochastic phase dynamics. Based on the model established, the neural phase synchronization motion and neural coding under spontaneous activity and stimulation are examined, for the case of varying network structure. Our analysis shows that, under the condition of spontaneous activity, the characteristics of phase neural coding are unrelated to the number of neurons participated in neural firing within the neuronal populations. The result of numerical simulation supports the existence of sparse coding within the brain, and verifies the crucial importance of the magnitudes of the coupling coefficients in neural information processing as well as the completely different information processing capability of neural information transmission in both serial and parallel couplings. The result also testifies that under external stimulation, the bigger the number of neurons in a neuronal population, the more the stimulation influences the phase synchronization motion and neural coding evolution in other neuronal populations. We verify numerically the experimental result in neurobiology that the reduction of the coupling coefficient between neuronal populations implies the enhancement of lateral inhibition function in neural networks, with the enhancement equivalent to depressing neuronal excitability threshold. Thus, the neuronal populations tend to have a stronger reaction under the same stimulation, and more neurons get excited, leading to more neurons participating in neural coding and phase synchronization motion.

Intergenerational Wealth Transmission and the Dynamics of Inequality in Small-Scale Societies*

PubMed Central

Mulder, Monique Borgerhoff; Bowles, Samuel; Hertz, Tom; Bell, Adrian; Beise, Jan; Clark, Greg; Fazzio, Ila; Gurven, Michael; Hill, Kim; Hooper, Paul L.; Irons, William; Kaplan, Hillard; Leonetti, Donna; Low, Bobbi; Marlowe, Frank; McElreath, Richard; Naidu, Suresh; Nolin, David; Piraino, Patrizio; Quinlan, Rob; Schniter, Eric; Sear, Rebecca; Shenk, Mary; Smith, Eric Alden; von Rueden, Christopher; Wiessner, Polly

2009-01-01

Small-scale human societies range from foraging bands with a strong egalitarian ethos to more economically stratified agrarian and pastoral societies. We explain this variation in inequality using a dynamic model in which a population’s long-run steady-state level of inequality depends on the extent to which its most important forms of wealth are transmitted within families across generations. We estimate the degree of intergenerational transmission of three different types of wealth (material, embodied, and relational) as well as the extent of wealth inequality in 21 historical and contemporary populations. We show that intergenerational transmission of wealth and wealth inequality are substantial among pastoral and small-scale agricultural societies (on a par with or even exceeding the most unequal modern industrial economies) and quite limited among horticultural and foraging peoples (equivalent to the most egalitarian of modern industrial populations). Differences in the technology by which a people derive their livelihood and in the institutions and norms making up the economic system jointly contribute to this pattern. PMID:19900925

Study on the dynamics responses of a transmission system made from carbon nanotubes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yin, Hang; Cai, Kun, E-mail: kuicansj@163.com; Wei, Ning

2015-06-21

A rotational transmission system from coaxial carbon nanotubes (CNTs) is investigated using a computational molecular dynamics approach. The system consists of a motor from a single-walled carbon nanotube and a bearing from a double-walled carbon nanotube. The motor has a high fixed rotational frequency and the two ends of the outer tube in the bearing are fixed. The inner tube in the bearing works as a rotor. Because of the interlayer friction in the bearing, configurations of the joint between the adjacent ends of motor and rotor have significant effects on rotational transmission properties. Four factors are considered in simulation,more » i.e., the bonding types of atoms (sp{sup 1} and sp{sup 2}) on the ends of motor and rotor, the difference between motor and rotor radii, the rotational speed of motor, and the environmental temperature. It is found that the synchronous transmission happens if the sp{sup 1} atoms on the jointed ends of motor and rotor are bonded each other and become new sp{sup 2} atoms. Therefore, the lower difference between radii of motor and rotor, higher temperature of environment leads to synchronous rotational transmission easily. If the environmental temperature is too low (e.g., <150 K), the end of motor adjacent to rotor is easily under buckling and new sp{sup 2} atoms appear, too. With capped CNTs or higher radii difference between rotor and motor at an appropriate temperature, a stable asynchronous rotation of rotor can be generated, and the rotor's frequency varying linearly with motor's frequency between 230 and 270 GHz. A multi-signal transmission device combined with oscillating and rotational motion is proposed for motor and stator shares a same size in radius.« less

The transmission system as main actor in electricity market development in Romania

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Petrescu, A.M.; Mihailescu, F.

1998-07-01

At the beginning of 1998, Romanian Electricity Authority (RENEL) was a fully integrated generation, transmission and distribution company, which managed all aspects of planning, design, and operation of Romania' s electricity sector. This form of vertically integrated organization has enabled to develop the high voltage transmission system in order to transfer electricity from the large power plants on indigenous coal (lignite) to the deficit electricity areas. An analysis based on specific characteristics of Romanian Transmission System allows the identification of a suitable model cost for transmission services evaluation. The transmission electricity tariff as a market tool has become a necessitymore » for the heterogeneous Romanian power systems from the repartition of the generation against the demand location point of view. The experience of the power system development planner shows that the most suitable model for the transmission electricity system cost assessment is the rated zones in order to reflect the geographical imbalance of generation and demand and the ability of the transmission system to accommodate this imbalance. Setting principles for the cost evaluation has to be sustained by the service evaluation on the grid nodes at the interface between transmission system and distribution system. This cost evaluation under the form of incentives for new producers has to be reconsidered year by year taking into account the evolution in time both production side and demand side. The incentives have to be addressed directly to the producers and must be strong enough to provide an efficient reliable operation of the whole power system. Transmission planners have to develop new approaches to deal with the uncertainties of the market; a combination of market forces and regulation seems to ensure the best way for the quality and security of the power system beside of the efficiency of all actors from the electricity market.« less

Transmission Line Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model User Reference Guide

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goldberg, M.; Keyser, D.

The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models, developed through the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), are freely available, user-friendly tools that estimate the potential economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation projects for a range of conventional and renewable energy technologies. The Transmission Line JEDI model can be used to field questions about the economic impacts of transmission lines in a given state, region, or local community. This Transmission Line JEDI User Reference Guide was developed to provide basic instruction on operating the model and understanding the results. This guide also provides information on the model's underlying methodology,more » as well as the parameters and references used to develop the cost data contained in the model.« less

Who acquires infection from whom and how? Disentangling multi-host and multi-mode transmission dynamics in the ‘elimination’ era

PubMed Central

Borlase, Anna; Rudge, James W.

2017-01-01

Multi-host infectious agents challenge our abilities to understand, predict and manage disease dynamics. Within this, many infectious agents are also able to use, simultaneously or sequentially, multiple modes of transmission. Furthermore, the relative importance of different host species and modes can itself be dynamic, with potential for switches and shifts in host range and/or transmission mode in response to changing selective pressures, such as those imposed by disease control interventions. The epidemiology of such multi-host, multi-mode infectious agents thereby can involve a multi-faceted community of definitive and intermediate/secondary hosts or vectors, often together with infectious stages in the environment, all of which may represent potential targets, as well as specific challenges, particularly where disease elimination is proposed. Here, we explore, focusing on examples from both human and animal pathogen systems, why and how we should aim to disentangle and quantify the relative importance of multi-host multi-mode infectious agent transmission dynamics under contrasting conditions, and ultimately, how this can be used to help achieve efficient and effective disease control. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission’. PMID:28289259

System life and reliability modeling for helicopter transmissions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Savage, M.; Brikmanis, C. K.

1986-01-01

A computer program which simulates life and reliability of helicopter transmissions is presented. The helicopter transmissions may be composed of spiral bevel gear units and planetary gear units - alone, in series or in parallel. The spiral bevel gear units may have either single or dual input pinions, which are identical. The planetary gear units may be stepped or unstepped and the number of planet gears carried by the planet arm may be varied. The reliability analysis used in the program is based on the Weibull distribution lives of the transmission components. The computer calculates the system lives and dynamic capacities of the transmission components and the transmission. The system life is defined as the life of the component or transmission at an output torque at which the probability of survival is 90 percent. The dynamic capacity of a component or transmission is defined as the output torque which can be applied for one million output shaft cycles for a probability of survival of 90 percent. A complete summary of the life and dynamic capacity results is produced by the program.

Climate and dengue transmission: evidence and implications.

PubMed

Morin, Cory W; Comrie, Andrew C; Ernst, Kacey

2013-01-01

Climate influences dengue ecology by affecting vector dynamics, agent development, and mosquito/human interactions. Although these relationships are known, the impact climate change will have on transmission is unclear. Climate-driven statistical and process-based models are being used to refine our knowledge of these relationships and predict the effects of projected climate change on dengue fever occurrence, but results have been inconsistent. We sought to identify major climatic influences on dengue virus ecology and to evaluate the ability of climate-based dengue models to describe associations between climate and dengue, simulate outbreaks, and project the impacts of climate change. We reviewed the evidence for direct and indirect relationships between climate and dengue generated from laboratory studies, field studies, and statistical analyses of associations between vectors, dengue fever incidence, and climate conditions. We assessed the potential contribution of climate-driven, process-based dengue models and provide suggestions to improve their performance. Relationships between climate variables and factors that influence dengue transmission are complex. A climate variable may increase dengue transmission potential through one aspect of the system while simultaneously decreasing transmission potential through another. This complexity may at least partly explain inconsistencies in statistical associations between dengue and climate. Process-based models can account for the complex dynamics but often omit important aspects of dengue ecology, notably virus development and host-species interactions. Synthesizing and applying current knowledge of climatic effects on all aspects of dengue virus ecology will help direct future research and enable better projections of climate change effects on dengue incidence.

Simultaneous inference of phylogenetic and transmission trees in infectious disease outbreaks

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Whole-genome sequencing of pathogens from host samples becomes more and more routine during infectious disease outbreaks. These data provide information on possible transmission events which can be used for further epidemiologic analyses, such as identification of risk factors for infectivity and transmission. However, the relationship between transmission events and sequence data is obscured by uncertainty arising from four largely unobserved processes: transmission, case observation, within-host pathogen dynamics and mutation. To properly resolve transmission events, these processes need to be taken into account. Recent years have seen much progress in theory and method development, but existing applications make simplifying assumptions that often break up the dependency between the four processes, or are tailored to specific datasets with matching model assumptions and code. To obtain a method with wider applicability, we have developed a novel approach to reconstruct transmission trees with sequence data. Our approach combines elementary models for transmission, case observation, within-host pathogen dynamics, and mutation, under the assumption that the outbreak is over and all cases have been observed. We use Bayesian inference with MCMC for which we have designed novel proposal steps to efficiently traverse the posterior distribution, taking account of all unobserved processes at once. This allows for efficient sampling of transmission trees from the posterior distribution, and robust estimation of consensus transmission trees. We implemented the proposed method in a new R package phybreak. The method performs well in tests of both new and published simulated data. We apply the model to five datasets on densely sampled infectious disease outbreaks, covering a wide range of epidemiological settings. Using only sampling times and sequences as data, our analyses confirmed the original results or improved on them: the more realistic infection times place more

Simultaneous inference of phylogenetic and transmission trees in infectious disease outbreaks.

PubMed

Klinkenberg, Don; Backer, Jantien A; Didelot, Xavier; Colijn, Caroline; Wallinga, Jacco

2017-05-01

Whole-genome sequencing of pathogens from host samples becomes more and more routine during infectious disease outbreaks. These data provide information on possible transmission events which can be used for further epidemiologic analyses, such as identification of risk factors for infectivity and transmission. However, the relationship between transmission events and sequence data is obscured by uncertainty arising from four largely unobserved processes: transmission, case observation, within-host pathogen dynamics and mutation. To properly resolve transmission events, these processes need to be taken into account. Recent years have seen much progress in theory and method development, but existing applications make simplifying assumptions that often break up the dependency between the four processes, or are tailored to specific datasets with matching model assumptions and code. To obtain a method with wider applicability, we have developed a novel approach to reconstruct transmission trees with sequence data. Our approach combines elementary models for transmission, case observation, within-host pathogen dynamics, and mutation, under the assumption that the outbreak is over and all cases have been observed. We use Bayesian inference with MCMC for which we have designed novel proposal steps to efficiently traverse the posterior distribution, taking account of all unobserved processes at once. This allows for efficient sampling of transmission trees from the posterior distribution, and robust estimation of consensus transmission trees. We implemented the proposed method in a new R package phybreak. The method performs well in tests of both new and published simulated data. We apply the model to five datasets on densely sampled infectious disease outbreaks, covering a wide range of epidemiological settings. Using only sampling times and sequences as data, our analyses confirmed the original results or improved on them: the more realistic infection times place more

Transmission of vibration through gloves: effects of material thickness.

PubMed

Md Rezali, Khairil Anas; Griffin, Michael J

2016-08-01

It might be assumed that increasing the thickness of a glove would reduce the vibration transmitted to the hand. Three material samples from an anti-vibration glove were stacked to produce three thicknesses: 6.4, 12.8 and 19.2 mm. The dynamic stiffnesses of all three thicknesses, the apparent mass at the palm and the finger and the transmission of vibration to the palm and finger were measured. At frequencies from 20 to 350 Hz, the material reduced vibration at the palm but increased vibration at the finger. Increased thickness reduced vibration at the palm but increased vibration at the finger. The measured transmissibilities could be predicted from the material dynamic stiffness and the apparent mass of the palm and finger. Reducing the dynamic stiffness of glove material may increase or decrease the transmission of vibration, depending on the material, the frequency of vibration and the location of measurement (palm or finger). Practitioner Summary: Transmission of vibration through gloves depends on the dynamic response of the hand and the dynamic stiffness of glove material, which depends on material thickness. Measuring the transmission of vibration through gloves to the palm of the hand gives a misleading indication of the transmission of vibration to the fingers.

Role of vaccination-induced immunity and antigenic distance in the transmission dynamics of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1

PubMed Central

Rousou, Xanthoula; Kalthoff, Donata; Beer, Martin

2016-01-01

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 epidemics in poultry cause huge economic losses as well as sporadic human morbidity and mortality. Vaccination in poultry has often been reported as being ineffective in preventing transmission and as a potential driving force in the selection of immune escape mutants. We conducted transmission experiments to evaluate the transmission dynamics of HPAI H5N1 strains in chickens vaccinated with high and low doses of immune escape mutants we have previously selected, and analysed the data using mathematical models. Remarkably, we demonstrate that the effect of antigenic distances between the vaccine and challenge strains used in this study is too small to influence the transmission dynamics of the strains used. This is because the effect of a sufficient vaccine dose on antibody levels against the challenge viruses is large enough to compensate for any decrease in antibody titres due to antigenic differences between vaccine and challenge strains. Our results show that at least under experimental conditions, vaccination will remain effective even after antigenic changes as may be caused by the initial selection in vaccinated birds. PMID:26763336

A weather-driven model of malaria transmission

PubMed Central

Hoshen, Moshe B; Morse, Andrew P

2004-01-01

Background Climate is a major driving force behind malaria transmission and climate data are often used to account for the spatial, seasonal and interannual variation in malaria transmission. Methods This paper describes a mathematical-biological model of the parasite dynamics, comprising both the weather-dependent within-vector stages and the weather-independent within-host stages. Results Numerical evaluations of the model in both time and space show that it qualitatively reconstructs the prevalence of infection. Conclusion A process-based modelling structure has been developed that may be suitable for the simulation of malaria forecasts based on seasonal weather forecasts. PMID:15350206

Effects of gear box vibration and mass imbalance on the dynamics of multi-stage gear transmissions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choy, Fred K.; Tu, Yu K.; Zakrajsek, James J.; Townsend, Dennis P.

1991-01-01

The dynamic behavior of multistage gear transmission system, with the effects of gear-box-induced vibrations and rotor mass-imbalances is analyzed. The model method, using undamped frequencies and planar mode shapes, is used to reduce the degree-of-freedom of the system. The various rotor-bearing stages as well as lateral and torsional vibrations of each individual stage are coupled through localized gear-mesh-tooth interactions. Gear-box vibrations are coupled to the gear stage dynamics through bearing support forces. Transient and steady state dynamics of lateral and torsional vibrations of the geared system are examined in both time and frequency domain. A typical three-staged geared system is used as an example. Effects of mass-imbalance and gear box vibrations on the system dynamic behavior are presented in terms of modal excitation functions for both lateral and torsional vibrations. Operational characteristics and conclusions are drawn from the results presented.

THE ROLE OF REEF FISH IN THE TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS OF BLACK-BAND DISEASE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS

EPA Science Inventory

Aeby, Greta S. and Deborah L. Santavy. In press. Role of Reef Fish in the Transmission Dynamics of Black-Band Disease in the Florida Keys (Abstract). To be presented at the 10th International Coral Reef Symposium, 28 June-2 July 2004, Okinawa, Japan. 1 p. (ERL,GB R998).

T...

Modeling the transmission dynamics and control of rabies in China.

PubMed

Ruan, Shigui

2017-04-01

Human rabies was first recorded in ancient China in about 556 BC and is still one of the major public-health problems in China. From 1950 to 2015, 130,494 human rabies cases were reported in Mainland China with an average of 1977 cases per year. It is estimated that 95% of these human rabies cases are due to dog bites. The purpose of this article is to provide a review about the models, results, and simulations that we have obtained recently on studying the transmission of rabies in China. We first construct a basic susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered (SEIR) type model for the spread of rabies virus among dogs and from dogs to humans and use the model to simulate the human rabies data in China from 1996 to 2010. Then we modify the basic model by including both domestic and stray dogs and apply the model to simulate the human rabies data from Guangdong Province, China. To study the seasonality of rabies, in Section 4 we further propose a SEIR model with periodic transmission rates and employ the model to simulate the monthly data of human rabies cases reported by the Chinese Ministry of Health from January 2004 to December 2010. To understand the spatial spread of rabies, in Section 5 we add diffusion to the dog population in the basic SEIR model to obtain a reaction-diffusion equation model and determine the minimum wave speed connecting the disease-free equilibrium to the endemic equilibrium. Finally, in order to investigate how the movement of dogs affects the geographically inter-provincial spread of rabies in Mainland China, in Section 6 we propose a multi-patch model to describe the transmission dynamics of rabies between dogs and humans and use the two-patch submodel to investigate the rabies virus clades lineages and to simulate the human rabies data from Guizhou and Guangxi, Hebei and Fujian, and Sichuan and Shaanxi, respectively. Some discussions are provided in Section 7. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparison of transmission dynamics between Streptococcus uberis and Streptococcus agalactiae intramammary infections.

PubMed

Leelahapongsathon, Kansuda; Schukken, Ynte Hein; Pinyopummintr, Tanu; Suriyasathaporn, Witaya

2016-02-01

parameter and R0 values were not different between both pathogens; however, the duration of infection for Strep. agalactiae was longer than Strep. uberis. These suggest that Strep. uberis may have a different transmission dynamic compared with Strep. agalactiae. Copyright © 2016 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development of malaria transmission-blocking vaccines: from concept to product.

PubMed

Wu, Yimin; Sinden, Robert E; Churcher, Thomas S; Tsuboi, Takafumi; Yusibov, Vidadi

2015-06-01

Despite decades of effort battling against malaria, the disease is still a major cause of morbidity and mortality. Transmission-blocking vaccines (TBVs) that target sexual stage parasite development could be an integral part of measures for malaria elimination. In the 1950s, Huff et al. first demonstrated the induction of transmission-blocking immunity in chickens by repeated immunizations with Plasmodium gallinaceum-infected red blood cells. Since then, significant progress has been made in identification of parasite antigens responsible for transmission-blocking activity. Recombinant technologies accelerated evaluation of these antigens as vaccine candidates, and it is possible to induce effective transmission-blocking immunity in humans both by natural infection and now by immunization with recombinant vaccines. This chapter reviews the efforts to produce TBVs, summarizes the current status and advances and discusses the remaining challenges and approaches. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Load-resistant coaxial transmission line

DOEpatents

Hall, David R.; Fox, Joe

2006-01-03

A transmission line for downhole tools that make up all or part of a tool string for drilling and production of oil, gas, and geothermal wells that can withstand the dynamic gravitational forces and other accelerations associated with downhole excavations. The transmission line has a metal tube, or outer conductor, that houses a coaxial wire inner conductor. A non-metallic dielectric material is interposed between the inner and outer conductors. The outer and inner conductors and the dielectric are sufficiently compressed together so that independent motion between them is abated. Compression of the components of the transmission line may be achieved by drawing the transmission through one or more dies in order to draw down the outer conductor onto the dielectric, or by expanding the inner conductor against the dielectric using a mandrel or hydraulic pressure. Non-metallic bead segments may be used in aid of the compression necessary to resist the dynamic forces and accelerations of drilling.

Development of Topical Microbicides to Prevent the Sexual Transmission of HIV

PubMed Central

Buckheit, Robert W.; Watson, Karen M.; Morrow, Kathleen M.; Ham, Anthony S.

2009-01-01

Women comprise almost 50% of the population of people living with HIV and the majority of these women contracted the virus through sexual transmission in monogamous relationships in the developing world. In these environments, where women are not empowered to protect themselves through the negotiation of condom use, effective means of preventing HIV transmission are urgently needed. In the absence of an approved and effective vaccine, microbicides have become the strategy of choice to provide women with the ability to prevent HIV transmission from their infected partners. Topical microbicides are agents specifically developed and formulated for use in either the vaginal or rectal environment that prevent infection by sexually transmitted infectious organisms, including pathogenic viruses, bacteria and fungi. Although a microbicidal product will have many of the same properties as other anti-infective agents and would be similarly developed through human clinical trials, microbicide development bears its own challenges related to formulation and delivery and the unique environment in which the product must act, as well as the requirement to develop a product that is acceptable to the user. Herein, perspectives based on preclinical and clinical microbicide development experience, which have led to an evolving microbicide development algorithm, will be discussed. This article forms part of a special issue of Antiviral Research marking the 25th anniversary of antiretroviral drug discovery and development, Vol 85, issue 1, 2010”. PMID:19874851

Electron beam dynamics in an ultrafast transmission electron microscope with Wehnelt electrode.

PubMed

Bücker, K; Picher, M; Crégut, O; LaGrange, T; Reed, B W; Park, S T; Masiel, D J; Banhart, F

2016-12-01

High temporal resolution transmission electron microscopy techniques have shown significant progress in recent years. Using photoelectron pulses induced by ultrashort laser pulses on the cathode, these methods can probe ultrafast materials processes and have revealed numerous dynamic phenomena at the nanoscale. Most recently, the technique has been implemented in standard thermionic electron microscopes that provide a flexible platform for studying material's dynamics over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. In this study, the electron pulses in such an ultrafast transmission electron microscope are characterized in detail. The microscope is based on a thermionic gun with a Wehnelt electrode and is operated in a stroboscopic photoelectron mode. It is shown that the Wehnelt bias has a decisive influence on the temporal and energy spread of the picosecond electron pulses. Depending on the shape of the cathode and the cathode-Wehnelt distance, different emission patterns with different pulse parameters are obtained. The energy spread of the pulses is determined by space charge and Boersch effects, given by the number of electrons in a pulse. However, filtering effects due to the chromatic aberrations of the Wehnelt electrode allow the extraction of pulses with narrow energy spreads. The temporal spread is governed by electron trajectories of different length and in different electrostatic potentials. High temporal resolution is obtained by excluding shank emission from the cathode and aberration-induced halos in the emission pattern. By varying the cathode-Wehnelt gap, the Wehnelt bias, and the number of photoelectrons in a pulse, tradeoffs between energy and temporal resolution as well as beam intensity can be made as needed for experiments. Based on the characterization of the electron pulses, the optimal conditions for the operation of ultrafast TEMs with thermionic gun assembly are elaborated. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Molecular assessment of Hepatozoon (Apicomplexa: Adeleorina) infections in wild canids and rodents from north Africa, with implications for transmission dynamics across taxonomic groups.

PubMed

Maia, João P; Alvares, Francisco; Boratyński, Zbyszek; Brito, José C; Leite, João V; Harris, D James

2014-10-01

Parasites play a major role in ecosystems, and understanding of host-parasite interactions is important for predicting parasite transmission dynamics and epidemiology. However, there is still a lack of knowledge about the distribution, diversity, and impact of parasites in wildlife, especially from remote areas. Hepatozoon is a genus of apicomplexan parasites that is transmitted by ingestion of infected arthropod vectors. However, alternative modes of transmission have been identified such as trophic transmission. Using the 18S rRNA gene as a marker, we provide an assessment of Hepatozoon prevalence in six wild canid and two rodent species collected between 2003 and 2012 from remote areas in North Africa. By combining this with other predator-prey systems in a phylogenetic framework, we investigate Hepatozoon transmission dynamics in distinct host taxa. Prevalence was high overall among host species (African jerboa Jaculus jaculus [17/47, 36%], greater Egyptian jerboa Jaculus orientalis [5/7, 71%], side-striped jackal Canis adustus [1/2, 50%], golden jackal Canis aureus [6/32, 18%], pale fox Vulpes pallida [14/28, 50%], Rüppell's fox Vulpes rueppellii [6/11, 55%], red fox Vulpes vulpes [8/16, 50%], and fennec fox Vulpes zerda [7/11, 42%]). Phylogenetic analysis showed further evidence of occasional transmission of Hepatozoon lineages from prey to canid predators, which seems to occur less frequently than in other predator-prey systems such as between snakes and lizards. Due to the complex nature of the Hepatozoon lifecycle (heteroxenous and vector-borne), future studies on these wild host species need to clarify the dynamics of alternative modes of Hepatozoon transmission and identify reservoir and definitive hosts in natural populations. We also detected putative Babesia spp. (Apicomplexa: Piroplasmida) infections in two canid species from this region, V. pallida (1/28) and V. zerda (1/11).

Transmission Loss Calculation using A and B Loss Coefficients in Dynamic Economic Dispatch Problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jethmalani, C. H. Ram; Dumpa, Poornima; Simon, Sishaj P.; Sundareswaran, K.

2016-04-01

This paper analyzes the performance of A-loss coefficients while evaluating transmission losses in a Dynamic Economic Dispatch (DED) Problem. The performance analysis is carried out by comparing the losses computed using nominal A loss coefficients and nominal B loss coefficients in reference with load flow solution obtained by standard Newton-Raphson (NR) method. Density based clustering method based on connected regions with sufficiently high density (DBSCAN) is employed in identifying the best regions of A and B loss coefficients. Based on the results obtained through cluster analysis, a novel approach in improving the accuracy of network loss calculation is proposed. Here, based on the change in per unit load values between the load intervals, loss coefficients are updated for calculating the transmission losses. The proposed algorithm is tested and validated on IEEE 6 bus system, IEEE 14 bus, system IEEE 30 bus system and IEEE 118 bus system. All simulations are carried out using SCILAB 5.4 (www.scilab.org) which is an open source software.

The potential for sexual transmission to compromise control of Ebola virus outbreaks.

PubMed

Vinson, John E; Drake, John M; Rohani, Pejman; Park, Andrew W

2016-06-01

Recent evidence suggests that sexual contact may give rise to transmission of Ebola virus long after infection has been cleared from blood. We develop a simple mathematical model that incorporates contact transmission and sexual transmission parametrized from data relating to the 2013-2015 West African Ebola epidemic. The model explores scenarios where contact transmission is reduced following infection events, capturing behaviour change, and quantifies how these actions reducing transmission may be compromised by sexual transmission in terms of increasing likelihood, size and duration of outbreaks. We characterize the extent to which sexual transmission operates in terms of the probability of initial infection resolving to sexual infectiousness and the sexual transmission rate, and relate these parameters to the overall case burden. We find that sexual transmission can have large effects on epidemic dynamics (increasing attack ratios from 25% in scenarios without sexual transmission but with contact-transmission-reducing behaviour, up to 80% in equivalent scenarios with sexual transmission). © 2016 The Author(s).

Transmission dynamics of Bacillus thuringiensis infecting Plodia interpunctella: a test of the mass action assumption with an insect pathogen.

PubMed

Knell, R J; Begon, M; Thompson, D J

1996-01-22

Central to theoretical studies of host-pathogen population dynamics is a term describing transmission of the pathogen. This usually assumes that transmission is proportional to the density of infectious hosts or particles and of susceptible individuals. We tested this assumption with the bacterial pathogen Bacillus thuringiensis infecting larvae of Plodia interpunctella, the Indian meal moth. Transmission was found to increase in a more than linear way with host density in fourth and fifth instar P. interpunctella, and to decrease with the density of infectious cadavers in the case of fifth instar larvae. Food availability was shown to play an important part in this process. Therefore, on a number of counts, the usual assumption was found not to apply in our experimental system.

Predicting the Impact of Vaccination on the Transmission Dynamics of Typhoid in South Asia: A Mathematical Modeling Study

PubMed Central

Pitzer, Virginia E.; Bowles, Cayley C.; Baker, Stephen; Kang, Gagandeep; Balaji, Veeraraghavan; Farrar, Jeremy J.; Grenfell, Bryan T.

2014-01-01

Background Modeling of the transmission dynamics of typhoid allows for an evaluation of the potential direct and indirect effects of vaccination; however, relevant typhoid models rooted in data have rarely been deployed. Methodology/Principal Findings We developed a parsimonious age-structured model describing the natural history and immunity to typhoid infection. The model was fit to data on culture-confirmed cases of typhoid fever presenting to Christian Medical College hospital in Vellore, India from 2000–2012. The model was then used to evaluate the potential impact of school-based vaccination strategies using live oral, Vi-polysaccharide, and Vi-conjugate vaccines. The model was able to reproduce the incidence and age distribution of typhoid cases in Vellore. The basic reproductive number (R 0) of typhoid was estimated to be 2.8 in this setting. Vaccination was predicted to confer substantial indirect protection leading to a decrease in the incidence of typhoid in the short term, but (intuitively) typhoid incidence was predicted to rebound 5–15 years following a one-time campaign. Conclusions/Significance We found that model predictions for the overall and indirect effects of vaccination depend strongly on the role of chronic carriers in transmission. Carrier transmissibility was tentatively estimated to be low, consistent with recent studies, but was identified as a pivotal area for future research. It is unlikely that typhoid can be eliminated from endemic settings through vaccination alone. PMID:24416466

Column-by-column observation of dislocation motion in CdTe: Dynamic scanning transmission electron microscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Chen; Zhang, Yu-Yang; Pennycook, Timothy J.; Wu, Yelong; Lupini, Andrew R.; Paudel, Naba; Pantelides, Sokrates T.; Yan, Yanfa; Pennycook, Stephen J.

2016-10-01

The dynamics of partial dislocations in CdTe have been observed at the atomic scale using aberration-corrected scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM), allowing the mobility of different dislocations to be directly compared: Cd-core Shockley partial dislocations are more mobile than Te-core partials, and dislocation cores with unpaired columns have higher mobility than those without unpaired columns. The dynamic imaging also provides insight into the process by which the dislocations glide. Dislocations with dangling bonds on unpaired columns are found to be more mobile because the dangling bonds mediate the bond exchanges required for the dislocations to move. Furthermore, a screw dislocation has been resolved to dissociate into a Shockley partial-dislocation pair along two different directions, revealing a way for the screw dislocation to glide in the material. The results show that dynamic STEM imaging has the potential to uncover the details of dislocation motion not easily accessible by other means.

[Modelling the effect of local climatic variability on dengue transmission in Medellin (Colombia) by means of time series analysis].

PubMed

Rúa-Uribe, Guillermo L; Suárez-Acosta, Carolina; Chauca, José; Ventosilla, Palmira; Almanza, Rita

2013-09-01

Dengue fever is a major impact on public health vector-borne disease, and its transmission is influenced by entomological, sociocultural and economic factors. Additionally, climate variability plays an important role in the transmission dynamics. A large scientific consensus has indicated that the strong association between climatic variables and disease could be used to develop models to explain the incidence of the disease. To develop a model that provides a better understanding of dengue transmission dynamics in Medellin and predicts increases in the incidence of the disease. The incidence of dengue fever was used as dependent variable, and weekly climatic factors (maximum, mean and minimum temperature, relative humidity and precipitation) as independent variables. Expert Modeler was used to develop a model to better explain the behavior of the disease. Climatic variables with significant association to the dependent variable were selected through ARIMA models. The model explains 34% of observed variability. Precipitation was the climatic variable showing statistically significant association with the incidence of dengue fever, but with a 20 weeks delay. In Medellin, the transmission of dengue fever was influenced by climate variability, especially precipitation. The strong association dengue fever/precipitation allowed the construction of a model to help understand dengue transmission dynamics. This information will be useful to develop appropriate and timely strategies for dengue control.

Syphilis transmission: a review of the current evidence

PubMed Central

Stoltey, Juliet E.; Cohen, Stephanie E.

2018-01-01

Syphilis remains widespread worldwide, with increasing rates among men who have sex with men. This paper reviews available evidence regarding syphilis transmission, including data on: sexual transmission (transmission probability per sexual partnership), vertical transmission, transmission via blood products and organ donation, and other rare modes of transmission. In addition, host susceptibility to syphilis infection is discussed. Syphilis screening and treatment, condoms and risk-reduction counselling and how they modify syphilis transmission dynamics are considered. PMID:25702043

Transmission of vibration through glove materials: effects of contact force.

PubMed

Md Rezali, Khairil Anas; Griffin, Michael J

2018-04-26

This study investigated effects of applied force on the apparent mass of the hand, the dynamic stiffness of glove materials and the transmission of vibration through gloves to the hand. For 10 subjects, 3 glove materials and 3 contact forces, apparent masses and glove transmissibilities were measured at the palm and at a finger at frequencies in the range 5-300 Hz. The dynamic stiffnesses of the materials were also measured. With increasing force, the dynamic stiffnesses of the materials increased, the apparent mass at the palm increased at frequencies greater than the resonance and the apparent mass at the finger increased at low frequencies. The effects of force on transmissibilities therefore differed between materials and depended on vibration frequency, but changes in apparent mass and dynamic stiffness had predictable effects on material transmissibility. Depending on the glove material, the transmission of vibration through a glove can be increased or decreased when increasing the applied force. Practitioner summary: Increasing the contact force (i.e. push force or grip force) can increase or decrease the transmission of vibration through a glove. The vibration transmissibilities of gloves should be assessed with a range of contact forces to understand their likely influence on the exposure of the hand and fingers to vibration.

Genetic diversity, transmission dynamics and drug resistance of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Angola.

PubMed

Perdigão, João; Clemente, Sofia; Ramos, Jorge; Masakidi, Pedro; Machado, Diana; Silva, Carla; Couto, Isabel; Viveiros, Miguel; Taveira, Nuno; Portugal, Isabel

2017-02-23

Tuberculosis (TB) poses a serious public health problem in Angola. No surveillance data on drug resistance is available and nothing is known regarding the genetic diversity and population structure of circulating Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains. Here, we have genotyped and evaluated drug susceptibility of 89 Mycobacterium tuberculosis clinical isolates from Luanda. Thirty-three different spoligotype profiles corresponding to 24 different Shared International Types (SIT) and 9 orphan profiles were detected. SIT 20 (LAM1) was the most prevalent (n = 16, 18.2%) followed by SIT 42 (LAM9; n = 15, 17.1%). Overall, the M. tuberculosis population structure in this sample was dominated by LAM (64.8%) and T (33.0%) strains. Twenty-four-loci MIRU-VNTR analysis revealed that a total of 13 isolates were grouped in 5 distinct clusters. Drug susceptibility data showed that 22 (24.7%) of the 89 clinical isolates were resistant to one or more antibacillary drugs of which 4 (4.5%) were multidrug resistant. In conclusion, this study demonstrates a high predominance of LAM strains circulating in the Luanda setting and the presence of recent transmission events. The rate and the emergence dynamics of drug resistant TB found in this sample are significant and highlight the need of further studies specifically focused on MDR-TB transmission.

High-speed nanoscale characterization of dewetting via dynamic transmission electron microscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hihath, Sahar; Santala, Melissa K.; Campbell, Geoffrey; van Benthem, Klaus

2016-08-01

The dewetting of thin films can occur in either the solid or the liquid state for which different mass transport mechanisms are expected to control morphological changes. Traditionally, dewetting dynamics have been examined on time scales between several seconds to hours, and length scales ranging between nanometers and millimeters. The determination of mass transport mechanisms on the nanoscale, however, requires nanoscale spatial resolution and much shorter time scales. This study reports the high-speed observation of dewetting phenomena for kinetically constrained Ni thin films on crystalline SrTiO3 substrates. Movie-mode Dynamic Transmission Electron Microscopy (DTEM) was used for high-speed image acquisition during thin film dewetting at different temperatures. DTEM imaging confirmed that the initial stages of film agglomeration include edge retraction, hole formation, and growth. Finite element modeling was used to simulate temperature distributions within the DTEM samples after laser irradiation with different energies. For pulsed laser irradiation at 18 μJ, experimentally observed hole growth suggests that Marangoni flow dominates hole formation in the liquid nickel film. After irradiation with 13.8 μJ, however, the observations suggest that dewetting was initiated by nucleation of voids followed by hole growth through solid-state surface diffusion.

High-speed nanoscale characterization of dewetting via dynamic transmission electron microscopy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hihath, Sahar; Department of Physics, University of California, Davis, 1 Shields Ave., Davis, California 95616; Santala, Melissa K.

The dewetting of thin films can occur in either the solid or the liquid state for which different mass transport mechanisms are expected to control morphological changes. Traditionally, dewetting dynamics have been examined on time scales between several seconds to hours, and length scales ranging between nanometers and millimeters. The determination of mass transport mechanisms on the nanoscale, however, requires nanoscale spatial resolution and much shorter time scales. This study reports the high-speed observation of dewetting phenomena for kinetically constrained Ni thin films on crystalline SrTiO{sub 3} substrates. Movie-mode Dynamic Transmission Electron Microscopy (DTEM) was used for high-speed image acquisitionmore » during thin film dewetting at different temperatures. DTEM imaging confirmed that the initial stages of film agglomeration include edge retraction, hole formation, and growth. Finite element modeling was used to simulate temperature distributions within the DTEM samples after laser irradiation with different energies. For pulsed laser irradiation at 18 μJ, experimentally observed hole growth suggests that Marangoni flow dominates hole formation in the liquid nickel film. After irradiation with 13.8 μJ, however, the observations suggest that dewetting was initiated by nucleation of voids followed by hole growth through solid-state surface diffusion.« less

Dynamics of a split torque helicopter transmission. M.S. Thesis - Cleveland State Univ.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krantz, Timothy L.

1994-01-01

Split torque designs, proposed as alternatives to traditional planetary designs for helicopter main rotor transmissions, can save weight and be more reliable than traditional designs. This report presents the results of an analytical study of the system dynamics and performance of a split torque gearbox that uses a balance beam mechanism for load sharing. The Lagrange method was applied to develop a system of equations of motion. The mathematical model includes time-varying gear mesh stiffness, friction, and manufacturing errors. Cornell's method for calculating the stiffness of spur gear teeth was extended and applied to helical gears. The phenomenon of sidebands spaced at shaft frequencies about gear mesh fundamental frequencies was simulated by modeling total composite gear errors as sinusoid functions. Although the gearbox has symmetric geometry, the loads and motions of the two power paths differ. Friction must be considered to properly evaluate the balance beam mechanism. For the design studied, the balance beam is not an effective device for load sharing unless the coefficient of friction is less than 0.003. The complete system stiffness as represented by the stiffness matrix used in this analysis must be considered to precisely determine the optimal tooth indexing position.

Hydrologic variability and the dynamics of West Nile virus transmission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaman, J. L.

2011-12-01

West Nile virus (WNV) first emerged in North America in New York City during 1999 and since that time has spread throughout the continent and settled into a pattern of local endemicity in which outbreaks of variable size develop in some years but not others. Predicting where and when these outbreaks will develop is an issue of considerable public health importance. Spillover transmission of WNV to humans typically occurs when infection rates among vector mosquitoes are elevated. Mosquito infection rates are not constant through time but instead increase when newly emergent mosquitoes can more readily acquire WNV by blood-meal feeding on available, infected animal hosts. Such an increase of vector mosquito infection rates is termed amplification and is facilitated for WNV by intense zoonotic transmission of the virus among vector mosquitoes and avian hosts. Theory, observation and model simulations indicate that amplification is favored when mosquito breeding habitats and bird nesting and roosting habitats overlap. Both vector mosquitoes and vertebrate hosts depend on water resources; mosquitoes are critically dependent on the availability of standing water, as the first 3 stages of the mosquito life cycle, egg, larvae, pupae, are aquatic. Here it is shown that hydrologic variability often determines where and when vector mosquitoes and avian hosts congregate together, and when the amplification of WNV is more likely. Measures of land surface wetness and pooling, from ground observation, satellite observation, or numerical modeling, can provide reliable estimates of where and when WNV transmission hotspots will arise. Examples of this linkage between hydrology and WNV activity are given for Florida, Colorado and New York, and an operational system for monitoring and forecasting WNV risk in space and time is presented for Florida.

Transmission dynamics of an insect-specific flavivirus in a naturally infected Culex pipiens laboratory colony and effects of co-infection on vector competence for West Nile virus

PubMed Central

Bolling, Bethany G.; Olea-Popelka, Francisco J.; Eisen, Lars; Moore, Chester G.; Blair, Carol D.

2012-01-01

We established a laboratory colony of Culex pipiens mosquitoes from eggs collected in Colorado and discovered that mosquitoes in the colony are naturally infected with Culex flavivirus (CxFV), an insect-specific flavivirus. In this study we examined transmission dynamics of CxFV and effects of persistent CxFV infection on vector competence for West Nile virus (WNV). We found that vertical transmission is the primary mechanism for persistence of CxFV in Cx. pipiens, with venereal transmission potentially playing a minor role. Vector competence experiments indicated possible early suppression of WNV replication by persistent CxFV infection in Cx. pipiens. This is the first description of insect-specific flavivirus transmission dynamics in a naturally infected mosquito colony and the observation of delayed dissemination of superinfecting WNV suggests that the presence of CxFV may impact the intensity of enzootic transmission of WNV and the risk of human exposure to this important pathogen. PMID:22425062

Transmission dynamics of an insect-specific flavivirus in a naturally infected Culex pipiens laboratory colony and effects of co-infection on vector competence for West Nile virus.

PubMed

Bolling, Bethany G; Olea-Popelka, Francisco J; Eisen, Lars; Moore, Chester G; Blair, Carol D

2012-06-05

We established a laboratory colony of Culex pipiens mosquitoes from eggs collected in Colorado and discovered that mosquitoes in the colony are naturally infected with Culex flavivirus (CxFV), an insect-specific flavivirus. In this study we examined transmission dynamics of CxFV and effects of persistent CxFV infection on vector competence for West Nile virus (WNV). We found that vertical transmission is the primary mechanism for persistence of CxFV in Cx. pipiens, with venereal transmission potentially playing a minor role. Vector competence experiments indicated possible early suppression of WNV replication by persistent CxFV infection in Cx. pipiens. This is the first description of insect-specific flavivirus transmission dynamics in a naturally infected mosquito colony and the observation of delayed dissemination of superinfecting WNV suggests that the presence of CxFV may impact the intensity of enzootic transmission of WNV and the risk of human exposure to this important pathogen. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The effect of sexual transmission on Zika virus dynamics.

PubMed

Saad-Roy, C M; Ma, Junling; van den Driessche, P

2018-04-25

Zika virus is a human disease that may lead to neurological disorders in affected individuals, and may be transmitted vectorially (by mosquitoes) or sexually. A mathematical model of Zika virus transmission is formulated, taking into account mosquitoes, sexually active males and females, inactive individuals, and considering both vector transmission and sexual transmission from infectious males to susceptible females. Basic reproduction numbers are computed, and disease control strategies are evaluated. The effect of the incidence function used to model sexual transmission from infectious males to susceptible females is investigated. It is proved that for such functions that are sublinear, if the basic reproduction [Formula: see text], then the disease dies out and [Formula: see text] is a sharp threshold. Moreover, under certain conditions on model parameters and assuming mass action incidence for sexual transmission, it is proved that if [Formula: see text], there exists a unique endemic equilibrium that is globally asymptotically stable. However, under nonlinear incidence, it is shown that for certain functions backward bifurcation and Hopf bifurcation may occur, giving rise to subthreshold equilibria and periodic solutions, respectively. Numerical simulations for various parameter values are displayed to illustrate these behaviours.

Understanding African Swine Fever infection dynamics in Sardinia using a spatially explicit transmission model in domestic pig farms.

PubMed

Mur, L; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, J M; Fernández-Carrión, E; Jurado, C; Rolesu, S; Feliziani, F; Laddomada, A; Martínez-López, B

2018-02-01

African swine fever virus (ASFV) has been endemic in Sardinia since 1978, resulting in severe losses for local pig producers and creating important problems for the island's veterinary authorities. This study used a spatially explicit stochastic transmission model followed by two regression models to investigate the dynamics of ASFV spread amongst domestic pig farms, to identify geographic areas at highest risk and determine the role of different susceptible pig populations (registered domestic pigs, non-registered domestic pigs [brado] and wild boar) in ASF occurrence. We simulated transmission within and between farms using an adapted version of the previously described model known as Be-FAST. Results from the model revealed a generally low diffusion of ASF in Sardinia, with only 24% of the simulations resulting in disease spread, and for each simulated outbreak on average only four farms and 66 pigs were affected. Overall, local spread (indirect transmission between farms within a 2 km radius through fomites) was the most common route of transmission, being responsible for 98.6% of secondary cases. The risk of ASF occurrence for each domestic pig farm was estimated from the spread model results and integrated in two regression models together with available data for brado and wild boar populations. There was a significant association between the density of all three populations (domestic pigs, brado, and wild boar) and ASF occurrence in Sardinia. The most significant risk factors were the high densities of brado (OR = 2.2) and wild boar (OR = 2.1). The results of both analyses demonstrated that ASF epidemiology and infection dynamics in Sardinia create a complex and multifactorial disease situation, where all susceptible populations play an important role. To stop ASF transmission in Sardinia, three main factors (improving biosecurity on domestic pig farms, eliminating brado practices and better management of wild boars) need to be addressed. © 2017

Respiratory virus transmission dynamics determine timing of asthma exacerbation peaks: Evidence from a population-level model.

PubMed

Eggo, Rosalind M; Scott, James G; Galvani, Alison P; Meyers, Lauren Ancel

2016-02-23

Asthma exacerbations exhibit a consistent annual pattern, closely mirroring the school calendar. Although respiratory viruses--the "common cold" viruses--are implicated as a principal cause, there is little evidence to link viral prevalence to seasonal differences in risk. We jointly fit a common cold transmission model and a model of biological and environmental exacerbation triggers to estimate effects on hospitalization risk. Asthma hospitalization rate, influenza prevalence, and air quality measures are available, but common cold circulation is not; therefore, we generate estimates of viral prevalence using a transmission model. Our deterministic multivirus transmission model includes transmission rates that vary when school is closed. We jointly fit the two models to 7 y of daily asthma hospitalizations in adults and children (66,000 events) in eight metropolitan areas. For children, we find that daily viral prevalence is the strongest predictor of asthma hospitalizations, with transmission reduced by 45% (95% credible interval =41-49%) during school closures. We detect a transient period of nonspecific immunity between infections lasting 19 (17-21) d. For adults, hospitalizations are more variable, with influenza driving wintertime peaks. Neither particulate matter nor ozone was an important predictor, perhaps because of the large geographic area of the populations. The school calendar clearly and predictably drives seasonal variation in common cold prevalence, which results in the "back-to-school" asthma exacerbation pattern seen in children and indirectly contributes to exacerbation risk in adults. This study provides a framework for anticipating the seasonal dynamics of common colds and the associated risks for asthmatics.

Respiratory virus transmission dynamics determine timing of asthma exacerbation peaks: Evidence from a population-level model

PubMed Central

Scott, James G.; Galvani, Alison P.; Meyers, Lauren Ancel

2016-01-01

Asthma exacerbations exhibit a consistent annual pattern, closely mirroring the school calendar. Although respiratory viruses—the “common cold” viruses—are implicated as a principal cause, there is little evidence to link viral prevalence to seasonal differences in risk. We jointly fit a common cold transmission model and a model of biological and environmental exacerbation triggers to estimate effects on hospitalization risk. Asthma hospitalization rate, influenza prevalence, and air quality measures are available, but common cold circulation is not; therefore, we generate estimates of viral prevalence using a transmission model. Our deterministic multivirus transmission model includes transmission rates that vary when school is closed. We jointly fit the two models to 7 y of daily asthma hospitalizations in adults and children (66,000 events) in eight metropolitan areas. For children, we find that daily viral prevalence is the strongest predictor of asthma hospitalizations, with transmission reduced by 45% (95% credible interval =41–49%) during school closures. We detect a transient period of nonspecific immunity between infections lasting 19 (17–21) d. For adults, hospitalizations are more variable, with influenza driving wintertime peaks. Neither particulate matter nor ozone was an important predictor, perhaps because of the large geographic area of the populations. The school calendar clearly and predictably drives seasonal variation in common cold prevalence, which results in the “back-to-school” asthma exacerbation pattern seen in children and indirectly contributes to exacerbation risk in adults. This study provides a framework for anticipating the seasonal dynamics of common colds and the associated risks for asthmatics. PMID:26858436

Dynamic horizontal cultural transmission of humpback whale song at the ocean basin scale.

PubMed

Garland, Ellen C; Goldizen, Anne W; Rekdahl, Melinda L; Constantine, Rochelle; Garrigue, Claire; Hauser, Nan Daeschler; Poole, M Michael; Robbins, Jooke; Noad, Michael J

2011-04-26

Cultural transmission, the social learning of information or behaviors from conspecifics, is believed to occur in a number of groups of animals, including primates, cetaceans, and birds. Cultural traits can be passed vertically (from parents to offspring), obliquely (from the previous generation via a nonparent model to younger individuals), or horizontally (between unrelated individuals from similar age classes or within generations). Male humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) have a highly stereotyped, repetitive, and progressively evolving vocal sexual display or "song" that functions in sexual selection (through mate attraction and/or male social sorting). All males within a population conform to the current version of the display (song type), and similarities may exist among the songs of populations within an ocean basin. Here we present a striking pattern of horizontal transmission: multiple song types spread rapidly and repeatedly in a unidirectional manner, like cultural ripples, eastward through the populations in the western and central South Pacific over an 11-year period. This is the first documentation of a repeated, dynamic cultural change occurring across multiple populations at such a large geographic scale. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influence of birth rates and transmission rates on the global seasonality of rotavirus incidence.

PubMed

Pitzer, Virginia E; Viboud, Cécile; Lopman, Ben A; Patel, Manish M; Parashar, Umesh D; Grenfell, Bryan T

2011-11-07

Rotavirus is a major cause of mortality in developing countries, and yet the dynamics of rotavirus in such settings are poorly understood. Rotavirus is typically less seasonal in the tropics, although recent observational studies have challenged the universality of this pattern. While numerous studies have examined the association between environmental factors and rotavirus incidence, here we explore the role of intrinsic factors. By fitting a mathematical model of rotavirus transmission dynamics to published age distributions of cases from 15 countries, we obtain estimates of local transmission rates. Model-predicted patterns of seasonal incidence based solely on differences in birth rates and transmission rates are significantly correlated with those observed (Spearman's ρ = 0.65, p < 0.05). We then examine seasonal patterns of rotavirus predicted across a range of different birth rates and transmission rates and explore how vaccination may impact these patterns. Our results suggest that the relative lack of rotavirus seasonality observed in many tropical countries may be due to the high birth rates and transmission rates typical of developing countries rather than being driven primarily by environmental conditions. While vaccination is expected to decrease the overall burden of disease, it may increase the degree of seasonal variation in the incidence of rotavirus in some settings.

Seasonal and Regional Dynamics of M. ulcerans Transmission in Environmental Context: Deciphering the Role of Water Bugs as Hosts and Vectors

PubMed Central

Marion, Estelle; Eyangoh, Sara; Yeramian, Edouard; Doannio, Julien; Landier, Jordi; Aubry, Jacques; Fontanet, Arnaud; Rogier, Christophe; Cassisa, Viviane; Cottin, Jane; Marot, Agnès; Eveillard, Matthieu; Kamdem, Yannick; Legras, Pierre; Deshayes, Caroline; Saint-André, Jean-Paul; Marsollier, Laurent

2010-01-01

Background Buruli ulcer, the third mycobacterial disease after tuberculosis and leprosy, is caused by the environmental mycobacterium M. ulcerans. Various modes of transmission have been suspected for this disease, with no general consensus acceptance for any of them up to now. Since laboratory models demonstrated the ability of water bugs to transmit M. ulcerans, a particular attention is focused on the transmission of the bacilli by water bugs as hosts and vectors. However, it is only through detailed knowledge of the biodiversity and ecology of water bugs that the importance of this mode of transmission can be fully assessed. It is the objective of the work here to decipher the role of water bugs in M. ulcerans ecology and transmission, based on large-scale field studies. Methodology/Principal Findings The distribution of M. ulcerans-hosting water bugs was monitored on previously unprecedented time and space scales: a total of 7,407 water bugs, belonging to large number of different families, were collected over one year, in Buruli ulcer endemic and non endemic areas in central Cameroon. This study demonstrated the presence of M. ulcerans in insect saliva. In addition, the field results provided a full picture of the ecology of transmission in terms of biodiversity and detailed specification of seasonal and regional dynamics, with large temporal heterogeneity in the insect tissue colonization rate and detection of M. ulcerans only in water bug tissues collected in Buruli ulcer endemic areas. Conclusion/Significance The large-scale detection of bacilli in saliva of biting water bugs gives enhanced weight to their role in M. ulcerans transmission. On practical grounds, beyond the ecological interest, the results concerning seasonal and regional dynamics can provide an efficient tool in the hands of sanitary authorities to monitor environmental risks associated with Buruli ulcer. PMID:20625552

Studying Dynamic Processes of Nano-sized Objects in Liquid using Scanning Transmission Electron Microscopy.

PubMed

Hermannsdörfer, Justus; de Jonge, Niels

2017-02-05

Samples fully embedded in liquid can be studied at a nanoscale spatial resolution with Scanning Transmission Electron Microscopy (STEM) using a microfluidic chamber assembled in the specimen holder for Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM) and STEM. The microfluidic system consists of two silicon microchips supporting thin Silicon Nitride (SiN) membrane windows. This article describes the basic steps of sample loading and data acquisition. Most important of all is to ensure that the liquid compartment is correctly assembled, thus providing a thin liquid layer and a vacuum seal. This protocol also includes a number of tests necessary to perform during sample loading in order to ensure correct assembly. Once the sample is loaded in the electron microscope, the liquid thickness needs to be measured. Incorrect assembly may result in a too-thick liquid, while a too-thin liquid may indicate the absence of liquid, such as when a bubble is formed. Finally, the protocol explains how images are taken and how dynamic processes can be studied. A sample containing AuNPs is imaged both in pure water and in saline.

Studying Dynamic Processes of Nano-sized Objects in Liquid using Scanning Transmission Electron Microscopy

PubMed Central

Hermannsdörfer, Justus; de Jonge, Niels

2017-01-01

Samples fully embedded in liquid can be studied at a nanoscale spatial resolution with Scanning Transmission Electron Microscopy (STEM) using a microfluidic chamber assembled in the specimen holder for Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM) and STEM. The microfluidic system consists of two silicon microchips supporting thin Silicon Nitride (SiN) membrane windows. This article describes the basic steps of sample loading and data acquisition. Most important of all is to ensure that the liquid compartment is correctly assembled, thus providing a thin liquid layer and a vacuum seal. This protocol also includes a number of tests necessary to perform during sample loading in order to ensure correct assembly. Once the sample is loaded in the electron microscope, the liquid thickness needs to be measured. Incorrect assembly may result in a too-thick liquid, while a too-thin liquid may indicate the absence of liquid, such as when a bubble is formed. Finally, the protocol explains how images are taken and how dynamic processes can be studied. A sample containing AuNPs is imaged both in pure water and in saline. PMID:28190028

A Fiber Bragg Grating-Based Dynamic Tension Detection System for Overhead Transmission Line Galloping.

PubMed

Ma, Guo-Ming; Li, Ya-Bo; Mao, Nai-Qiang; Shi, Cheng; Zhang, Bo; Li, Cheng-Rong

2018-01-26

Galloping of overhead transmission lines (OHTLs) may induce conductor breakage and tower collapse, and there is no effective method for long distance distribution on-line galloping monitoring. To overcome the drawbacks of the conventional galloping monitoring systems, such as sensitivity to electromagnetic interference, the need for onsite power, and short lifetimes, a novel optical remote passive measuring system is proposed in the paper. Firstly, to solve the hysteresis and eccentric load problem in tension sensing, and to extent the dynamic response range, an 'S' type elastic element structure with flanges was proposed. Then, a tension experiment was carried out to demonstrate the dynamic response characteristics. Moreover, the designed tension sensor was stretched continuously for 30 min to observe its long time stability. Last but not the least, the sensor was mounted on a 70 m conductor model, and the conductor was oscillated at different frequencies to investigate the dynamic performance of the sensor. The experimental results demonstrate the sensor is suitable for the OHTL galloping detection. Compared with the conventional sensors for OHTL monitoring, the system has many advantages, such as easy installation, no flashover risk, distribution monitoring, better bandwidth, improved accuracy and higher reliability.

Closed loop computer control for an automatic transmission

DOEpatents

Patil, Prabhakar B.

1989-01-01

In an automotive vehicle having an automatic transmission that driveably connects a power source to the driving wheels, a method to control the application of hydraulic pressure to a clutch, whose engagement produces an upshift and whose disengagement produces a downshift, the speed of the power source, and the output torque of the transmission. The transmission output shaft torque and the power source speed are the controlled variables. The commanded power source torque and commanded hydraulic pressure supplied to the clutch are the control variables. A mathematical model is formulated that describes the kinematics and dynamics of the powertrain before, during and after a gear shift. The model represents the operating characteristics of each component and the structural arrangement of the components within the transmission being controlled. Next, a close loop feedback control is developed to determine the proper control law or compensation strategy to achieve an acceptably smooth gear ratio change, one in which the output torque disturbance is kept to a minimum and the duration of the shift is minimized. Then a computer algorithm simulating the shift dynamics employing the mathematical model is used to study the effects of changes in the values of the parameters established from a closed loop control of the clutch hydraulic and the power source torque on the shift quality. This computer simulation is used also to establish possible shift control strategies. The shift strategies determined from the prior step are reduced to an algorithm executed by a computer to control the operation of the power source and the transmission.

Modelling the transmission of healthcare associated infections: a systematic review

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Dynamic transmission models are increasingly being used to improve our understanding of the epidemiology of healthcare-associated infections (HCAI). However, there has been no recent comprehensive review of this emerging field. This paper summarises how mathematical models have informed the field of HCAI and how methods have developed over time. Methods MEDLINE, EMBASE, Scopus, CINAHL plus and Global Health databases were systematically searched for dynamic mathematical models of HCAI transmission and/or the dynamics of antimicrobial resistance in healthcare settings. Results In total, 96 papers met the eligibility criteria. The main research themes considered were evaluation of infection control effectiveness (64%), variability in transmission routes (7%), the impact of movement patterns between healthcare institutes (5%), the development of antimicrobial resistance (3%), and strain competitiveness or co-colonisation with different strains (3%). Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus was the most commonly modelled HCAI (34%), followed by vancomycin resistant enterococci (16%). Other common HCAIs, e.g. Clostridum difficile, were rarely investigated (3%). Very few models have been published on HCAI from low or middle-income countries. The first HCAI model has looked at antimicrobial resistance in hospital settings using compartmental deterministic approaches. Stochastic models (which include the role of chance in the transmission process) are becoming increasingly common. Model calibration (inference of unknown parameters by fitting models to data) and sensitivity analysis are comparatively uncommon, occurring in 35% and 36% of studies respectively, but their application is increasing. Only 5% of models compared their predictions to external data. Conclusions Transmission models have been used to understand complex systems and to predict the impact of control policies. Methods have generally improved, with an increased use of stochastic models, and

Mathematical modeling of climate change and malaria transmission dynamics: a historical review.

PubMed

Eikenberry, Steffen E; Gumel, Abba B

2018-04-24

Malaria, one of the greatest historical killers of mankind, continues to claim around half a million lives annually, with almost all deaths occurring in children under the age of five living in tropical Africa. The range of this disease is limited by climate to the warmer regions of the globe, and so anthropogenic global warming (and climate change more broadly) now threatens to alter the geographic area for potential malaria transmission, as both the Plasmodium malaria parasite and Anopheles mosquito vector have highly temperature-dependent lifecycles, while the aquatic immature Anopheles habitats are also strongly dependent upon rainfall and local hydrodynamics. A wide variety of process-based (or mechanistic) mathematical models have thus been proposed for the complex, highly nonlinear weather-driven Anopheles lifecycle and malaria transmission dynamics, but have reached somewhat disparate conclusions as to optimum temperatures for transmission, and the possible effect of increasing temperatures upon (potential) malaria distribution, with some projecting a large increase in the area at risk for malaria, but others predicting primarily a shift in the disease's geographic range. More generally, both global and local environmental changes drove the initial emergence of P. falciparum as a major human pathogen in tropical Africa some 10,000 years ago, and the disease has a long and deep history through the present. It is the goal of this paper to review major aspects of malaria biology, methods for formalizing these into mathematical forms, uncertainties and controversies in proper modeling methodology, and to provide a timeline of some major modeling efforts from the classical works of Sir Ronald Ross and George Macdonald through recent climate-focused modeling studies. Finally, we attempt to place such mathematical work within a broader historical context for the "million-murdering Death" of malaria.

Within-farm transmission dynamics of foot and mouth disease as revealed by the 2001 epidemic in Great Britain.

PubMed

Chis Ster, Irina; Dodd, Peter J; Ferguson, Neil M

2012-08-01

This paper uses statistical and mathematical models to examine the potential impact of within-farm transmission dynamics on the spread of the 2001 foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in Great Britain. We partly parameterize a simple within farm transmission model using data from experimental studies of FMD pathogenesis, embed this model within an existing between-farm transmission model, and then estimate unknown parameters (such as the species-specific within-farm reproduction number) from the 2001 epidemic case data using Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) methods. If the probability of detecting an infected premises depends on farm size and species mix then the within-farm species specific basic reproduction ratios for baseline models are estimated to be 21 (16, 25) and 14 (10, 19) for cattle and sheep, respectively. Alternatively, if detection is independent of farm size, then the corresponding estimates are 49 (41, 61) and 10 (1.4, 21). Both model variants predict that the average fraction of total farm infectiousness accumulated prior to detection of infection on an IP is about 30-50% in cattle or mixed farms. The corresponding estimate for sheep farms depended more on the detection model, being 65-80% if detection was linked to the farms' characteristics, but only 25% if not. We highlighted evidence which reinforces the role of within-farm dynamics in contributing to the long tail of the 2001 epidemic. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

HIV Infection: Transmission, Effects on Early Development, and Interventions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lowenthal, Barbara

1997-01-01

Describes the modes of transmission of HIV and the course of the disease in infants and toddlers. Information is provided on its effects on early development, medical screening and treatments, therapies, psychosocial assistance, and interventions, including nutritional therapy, occupational and physical therapies, and speech and language therapy.…

Life and reliability models for helicopter transmissions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Savage, M.; Knorr, R. J.; Coy, J. J.

1982-01-01

Computer models of life and reliability are presented for planetary gear trains with a fixed ring gear, input applied to the sun gear, and output taken from the planet arm. For this transmission the input and output shafts are co-axial and the input and output torques are assumed to be coaxial with these shafts. Thrust and side loading are neglected. The reliability model is based on the Weibull distributions of the individual reliabilities of the in transmission components. The system model is also a Weibull distribution. The load versus life model for the system is a power relationship as the models for the individual components. The load-life exponent and basic dynamic capacity are developed as functions of the components capacities. The models are used to compare three and four planet, 150 kW (200 hp), 5:1 reduction transmissions with 1500 rpm input speed to illustrate their use.

Dynamical tuning between nearly perfect reflection, absorption, and transmission of light via graphene/dielectric structures

PubMed Central

Linder, Jacob; Halterman, Klaus

2016-01-01

Exerting well-defined control over the reflection (R), absorption (A), and transmission (T) of electromagnetic waves is a key objective in quantum optics. To this end, one often utilizes hybrid structures comprised of elements with different optical properties in order to achieve features such as high R or high A for incident light. A desirable goal would be the possibility to tune between all three regimes of nearly perfect reflection, absorption, and transmission within the same device, thus swapping between the cases R → 1, A → 1, and T → 1 dynamically. We here show that a dielectric interfaced with a graphene layer on each side allows for precisely this: by tuning only the Fermi level of graphene, all three regimes can be reached in the THz regime and below. Moreover, we show that the inclusion of cylindrical defects in the system offers a different type of control of the scattering of electromagnetic waves by means of the graphene layers. PMID:27917886

Contact, Travel, and Transmission: The Impact of Winter Holidays on Influenza Dynamics in the United States

PubMed Central

Ewing, Anne; Lee, Elizabeth C.; Viboud, Cécile

2017-01-01

Abstract Background. The seasonality of influenza is thought to vary according to environmental factors and human behavior. During winter holidays, potential disease-causing contact and travel deviate from typical patterns. We aim to understand these changes on age-specific and spatial influenza transmission. Methods. We characterized the changes to transmission and epidemic trajectories among children and adults in a spatial context before, during, and after the winter holidays among aggregated physician medical claims in the United States from 2001 to 2009 and among synthetic data simulated from a deterministic, age-specific spatial metapopulation model. Results. Winter holidays reduced influenza transmission and delayed the trajectory of influenza season epidemics. The holiday period was marked by a shift in the relative risk of disease from children toward adults. Model results indicated that holidays delayed epidemic peaks and synchronized incidence across locations, and that contact reductions from school closures, rather than age-specific mixing and travel, produced these observed holiday influenza dynamics. Conclusions. Winter holidays delay seasonal influenza epidemic peaks and shift disease risk toward adults because of changes in contact patterns. These findings may inform targeted influenza information and vaccination campaigns during holiday periods. PMID:28031259

Heterogeneity, Mixing, and the Spatial Scales of Mosquito-Borne Pathogen Transmission

PubMed Central

Perkins, T. Alex; Scott, Thomas W.; Le Menach, Arnaud; Smith, David L.

2013-01-01

The Ross-Macdonald model has dominated theory for mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control for over a century. The model, like many other basic population models, makes the mathematically convenient assumption that populations are well mixed; i.e., that each mosquito is equally likely to bite any vertebrate host. This assumption raises questions about the validity and utility of current theory because it is in conflict with preponderant empirical evidence that transmission is heterogeneous. Here, we propose a new dynamic framework that is realistic enough to describe biological causes of heterogeneous transmission of mosquito-borne pathogens of humans, yet tractable enough to provide a basis for developing and improving general theory. The framework is based on the ecological context of mosquito blood meals and the fine-scale movements of individual mosquitoes and human hosts that give rise to heterogeneous transmission. Using this framework, we describe pathogen dispersion in terms of individual-level analogues of two classical quantities: vectorial capacity and the basic reproductive number, . Importantly, this framework explicitly accounts for three key components of overall heterogeneity in transmission: heterogeneous exposure, poor mixing, and finite host numbers. Using these tools, we propose two ways of characterizing the spatial scales of transmission—pathogen dispersion kernels and the evenness of mixing across scales of aggregation—and demonstrate the consequences of a model's choice of spatial scale for epidemic dynamics and for estimation of , both by a priori model formulas and by inference of the force of infection from time-series data. PMID:24348223

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Scrub Typhus Transmission in Mainland China, 2006-2014

PubMed Central

Hu, Wen-Biao; Haque, Ubydul; Weppelmann, Thomas A.; Wang, Yong; Liu, Yun-Xi; Li, Xin-Lou; Sun, Hai-Long; Sun, Yan-Song; Clements, Archie C. A.; Li, Shen-Long; Zhang, Wen-Yi

2016-01-01

Background Scrub typhus is endemic in the Asia-Pacific region including China, and the number of reported cases has increased dramatically in the past decade. However, the spatial-temporal dynamics and the potential risk factors in transmission of scrub typhus in mainland China have yet to be characterized. Objective This study aims to explore the spatiotemporal dynamics of reported scrub typhus cases in mainland China between January 2006 and December 2014, to detect the location of high risk spatiotemporal clusters of scrub typhus cases, and identify the potential risk factors affecting the re-emergence of the disease. Method Monthly cases of scrub typhus reported at the county level between 2006 and 2014 were obtained from the Chinese Center for Diseases Control and Prevention. Time-series analyses, spatiotemporal cluster analyses, and spatial scan statistics were used to explore the characteristics of the scrub typhus incidence. To explore the association between scrub typhus incidence and environmental variables panel Poisson regression analysis was conducted. Results During the time period between 2006 and 2014 a total of 54,558 scrub typhus cases were reported in mainland China, which grew exponentially. The majority of cases were reported each year between July and November, with peak incidence during October every year. The spatiotemporal dynamics of scrub typhus varied over the study period with high-risk clusters identified in southwest, southern, and middle-eastern part of China. Scrub typhus incidence was positively correlated with the percentage of shrub and meteorological variables including temperature and precipitation. Conclusions The results of this study demonstrate areas in China that could be targeted with public health interventions to mitigate the growing threat of scrub typhus in the country. PMID:27479297

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Scrub Typhus Transmission in Mainland China, 2006-2014.

PubMed

Wu, Yi-Cheng; Qian, Quan; Soares Magalhaes, Ricardo J; Han, Zhi-Hai; Hu, Wen-Biao; Haque, Ubydul; Weppelmann, Thomas A; Wang, Yong; Liu, Yun-Xi; Li, Xin-Lou; Sun, Hai-Long; Sun, Yan-Song; Clements, Archie C A; Li, Shen-Long; Zhang, Wen-Yi

2016-08-01

Scrub typhus is endemic in the Asia-Pacific region including China, and the number of reported cases has increased dramatically in the past decade. However, the spatial-temporal dynamics and the potential risk factors in transmission of scrub typhus in mainland China have yet to be characterized. This study aims to explore the spatiotemporal dynamics of reported scrub typhus cases in mainland China between January 2006 and December 2014, to detect the location of high risk spatiotemporal clusters of scrub typhus cases, and identify the potential risk factors affecting the re-emergence of the disease. Monthly cases of scrub typhus reported at the county level between 2006 and 2014 were obtained from the Chinese Center for Diseases Control and Prevention. Time-series analyses, spatiotemporal cluster analyses, and spatial scan statistics were used to explore the characteristics of the scrub typhus incidence. To explore the association between scrub typhus incidence and environmental variables panel Poisson regression analysis was conducted. During the time period between 2006 and 2014 a total of 54,558 scrub typhus cases were reported in mainland China, which grew exponentially. The majority of cases were reported each year between July and November, with peak incidence during October every year. The spatiotemporal dynamics of scrub typhus varied over the study period with high-risk clusters identified in southwest, southern, and middle-eastern part of China. Scrub typhus incidence was positively correlated with the percentage of shrub and meteorological variables including temperature and precipitation. The results of this study demonstrate areas in China that could be targeted with public health interventions to mitigate the growing threat of scrub typhus in the country.

Dynamic Control over the Optical Transmission of Nanoscale Dielectric Metasurface by Alkali Vapors.

PubMed

Bar-David, Jonathan; Stern, Liron; Levy, Uriel

2017-02-08

In recent years, dielectric and metallic nanoscale metasurfaces are attracting growing attention and are being used for variety of applications. Resulting from the ability to introduce abrupt changes in optical properties at nanoscale dimensions, metasurfaces enable unprecedented control over light's different degrees of freedom, in an essentially two-dimensional configuration. Yet, the dynamic control over metasurface properties still remains one of the ultimate goals of this field. Here, we demonstrate the optical resonant interaction between a form birefringent dielectric metasurface made of silicon and alkali atomic vapor to control and effectively tune the optical transmission pattern initially generated by the nanoscale dielectric metasurface. By doing so, we present a controllable metasurface system, the output of which may be altered by applying magnetic fields, changing input polarization, or shifting the optical frequency. Furthermore, we also demonstrate the nonlinear behavior of our system taking advantage of the saturation effect of atomic transition. The demonstrated approach paves the way for using metasurfaces in applications where dynamic tunability of the metasurface is in need, for example, for scanning systems, tunable focusing, real time displays, and more.

Determination of the Optimal Fourier Number on the Dynamic Thermal Transmission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruzgevičius, P.; Burlingis, A.; Norvaišienė, R.

2016-12-01

This article represents the result of experimental research on transient heat transfer in a multilayered (heterogeneous) wall. Our non-steady thermal transmission simulation is based on a finite-difference calculation method. The value of a Fourier number shows the similarity of thermal variation in conditional layers of an enclosure. Most scientists recommend using no more than a value of 0.5 for the Fourier number when performing calculations on dynamic (transient) heat transfer. The value of the Fourier number is determined in order to acquire reliable calculation results with optimal accuracy. To compare the results of simulation with experimental research, a transient heat transfer calculation spreadsheet was created. Our research has shown that a Fourier number of around 0.5 or even 0.32 is not sufficient ({≈ }17 % of oscillation amplitude) for calculations of transient heat transfer in a multilayered wall. The least distorted calculation results were obtained when the multilayered enclosure was divided into conditional layers with almost equal Fourier number values and when the value of the Fourier number was around 1/6, i.e., approximately 0.17. Statistical deviation analysis using the Statistical Analysis System was applied to assess the accuracy of the spreadsheet calculation and was developed on the basis of our established methodology. The mean and median absolute error as well as their confidence intervals has been estimated by the two methods with optimal accuracy ({F}_{oMDF}= 0.177 and F_{oEPS}= 0.1633 values).

Natural Characteristics of The Herringbone Gear Transmission System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Jianxing; Sun, Wenlei; Cao, Li

2018-03-01

According to the structure characteristics of herringbone gear transmission, a more realistic dynamic model of the transmission system is built in consideration of the inner excitation, herringbone gears axial positioning and sliding bearing etc. The natural frequencies of the system are calculated, and the vibration mode is divided into symmetric vibration modes and asymmetric vibration modes. The time history of system dynamic force is obtained by solving the dynamic model. The effects of the connection stiffness of left and right sides of herringbone gears and axial support stiffness on natural characteristics are discussed.

76 FR 20973 - Northeast Transmission Development, LLC; Notice of Petition for Declaratory Order

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-04-14

... DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Federal Energy Regulatory Commission [Docket No. EL11-33-000] Northeast Transmission Development, LLC; Notice of Petition for Declaratory Order Take notice that on April 6, 2011... (Commission) Rules of Practice and Procedure, 18 CFR 385.207, and Order No. 679,\\2\\ Northeast Transmission...

Effect of a preventive vaccine on the dynamics of HIV transmission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gumel, A. B.; Moghadas, S. M.; Mickens, R. E.

2004-12-01

A deterministic mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of HIV infection in the presence of a preventive vaccine is considered. Although the equilibria of the model could not be expressed in closed form, their existence and threshold conditions for their stability are theoretically investigated. It is shown that the disease-free equilibrium is locally-asymptotically stable if the basic reproductive number R<1 (thus, HIV disease can be eradicated from the community) and unstable if R>1 (leading to the persistence of HIV within the community). A robust, positivity-preserving, non-standard finite-difference method is constructed and used to solve the model equations. In addition to showing that the anti-HIV vaccine coverage level and the vaccine-induced protection are critically important in reducing the threshold quantity R, our study predicts the minimum threshold values of vaccine coverage and efficacy levels needed to eradicate HIV from the community.

The dynamic process and microscopic mechanism of extraordinary terahertz transmission through perforated superconducting films

PubMed Central

Wu, J. B.; Zhang, X.; Jin, B. B.; Liu, H. T.; Chen, Y. H.; Li, Z. Y.; Zhang, C. H.; Kang, L.; Xu, W. W.; Chen, J.; Wang, H. B.; Tonouchi, M.; Wu, P. H.

2015-01-01

Superconductor is a compelling plasmonic medium at terahertz frequencies owing to its intrinsic low Ohmic loss and good tuning property. However, the microscopic physics of the interaction between terahertz wave and superconducting plasmonic structures is still unknown. In this paper, we conducted experiments of the enhanced terahertz transmission through a series of superconducting NbN subwavelength hole arrays, and employed microscopic hybrid wave model in theoretical analysis of the role of hybrid waves in the enhanced transmission. The theoretical calculation provided a good match of experimental data. In particular, we obtained the following results. When the width of the holes is far below wavelength, the enhanced transmission is mainly caused by localized resonance around individual holes. On the contrary, when the holes are large, hybrid waves scattered by the array of holes dominate the extraordinary transmission. The surface plasmon polaritions are proved to be launched on the surface of superconducting film and the excitation efficiency increases when the temperature approaches critical temperature and the working frequency goes near energy gap frequency. This work will enrich our knowledge on the microscopic physics of extraordinary optical transmission at terahertz frequencies and contribute to developing terahertz plasmonic devices. PMID:26498994

Design and dynamic simulation of a fixed pitch 56 kW wind turbine drive train with a continuously variable transmission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gallo, C.; Kasuba, R.; Pintz, A.; Spring, J.

1986-01-01

The dynamic analysis of a horizontal axis fixed pitch wind turbine generator (WTG) rated at 56 kW is discussed. A mechanical Continuously Variable Transmission (CVT) was incorporated in the drive train to provide variable speed operation capability. One goal of the dynamic analysis was to determine if variable speed operation, by means of a mechanical CVT, is capable of capturing the transient power in the WTG/wind environment. Another goal was to determine the extent of power regulation possible with CVT operation.

Transcriptome Dynamics during Maize Endosperm Development

PubMed Central

Feng, Jiaojiao; Xu, Shutu; Wang, Lei; Li, Feifei; Li, Yibo; Zhang, Renhe; Zhang, Xinghua; Xue, Jiquan; Guo, Dongwei

2016-01-01

The endosperm is a major organ of the seed that plays vital roles in determining seed weight and quality. However, genome-wide transcriptome patterns throughout maize endosperm development have not been comprehensively investigated to date. Accordingly, we performed a high-throughput RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) analysis of the maize endosperm transcriptome at 5, 10, 15 and 20 days after pollination (DAP). We found that more than 11,000 protein-coding genes underwent alternative splicing (AS) events during the four developmental stages studied. These genes were mainly involved in intracellular protein transport, signal transmission, cellular carbohydrate metabolism, cellular lipid metabolism, lipid biosynthesis, protein modification, histone modification, cellular amino acid metabolism, and DNA repair. Additionally, 7,633 genes, including 473 transcription factors (TFs), were differentially expressed among the four developmental stages. The differentially expressed TFs were from 50 families, including the bZIP, WRKY, GeBP and ARF families. Further analysis of the stage-specific TFs showed that binding, nucleus and ligand-dependent nuclear receptor activities might be important at 5 DAP, that immune responses, signalling, binding and lumen development are involved at 10 DAP, that protein metabolic processes and the cytoplasm might be important at 15 DAP, and that the responses to various stimuli are different at 20 DAP compared with the other developmental stages. This RNA-seq analysis provides novel, comprehensive insights into the transcriptome dynamics during early endosperm development in maize. PMID:27695101

Development of a full-scale transmission testing procedure to evaluate advanced lubricants

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewicki, David G.; Decker, Harry J.; Shimski, John T.

1992-01-01

Experimental tests were performed on the OH-58A helicopter main rotor transmission in the NASA Lewis 500-hp Helicopter Transmission Test Stand. The testing was part of a joint Navy/NASA/Army lubrication program. The objective of the program was to develop a separate lubricant for gearboxes and demonstrate an improved performance in life and load-carrying capacity. The goal of the experiments was to develop a testing procedure to fail certain transmission components using a MIL-L-23699 base reference oil, then run identical tests with improved lubricants and demonstrate performance. The tests were directed at failing components that the Navy has had problems with due to marginal lubrication. These failures included mast shaft bearing micropitting, sun gear and planet bearing fatigue, and spiral bevel gear scoring. A variety of tests were performed and over 900 hours of total run time accumulated for these tests. Some success was achieved in developing a testing procedure to produce sun gear and planet bearing fatigue failures. Only marginal success was achieved in producing mast shaft bearing micropitting and spiral bevel gear scoring.

Weather Regulates Location, Timing, and Intensity of Dengue Virus Transmission between Humans and Mosquitoes

PubMed Central

Campbell, Karen M.; Haldeman, Kristin; Lehnig, Chris; Munayco, Cesar V.; Halsey, Eric S.; Laguna-Torres, V. Alberto; Yagui, Martín; Morrison, Amy C.; Lin, Chii-Dean; Scott, Thomas W.

2015-01-01

Background Dengue is one of the most aggressively expanding mosquito-transmitted viruses. The human burden approaches 400 million infections annually. Complex transmission dynamics pose challenges for predicting location, timing, and magnitude of risk; thus, models are needed to guide prevention strategies and policy development locally and globally. Weather regulates transmission-potential via its effects on vector dynamics. An important gap in understanding risk and roadblock in model development is an empirical perspective clarifying how weather impacts transmission in diverse ecological settings. We sought to determine if location, timing, and potential-intensity of transmission are systematically defined by weather. Methodology/Principal Findings We developed a high-resolution empirical profile of the local weather-disease connection across Peru, a country with considerable ecological diversity. Applying 2-dimensional weather-space that pairs temperature versus humidity, we mapped local transmission-potential in weather-space by week during 1994-2012. A binary classification-tree was developed to test whether weather data could classify 1828 Peruvian districts as positive/negative for transmission and into ranks of transmission-potential with respect to observed disease. We show that transmission-potential is regulated by temperature-humidity coupling, enabling epidemics in a limited area of weather-space. Duration within a specific temperature range defines transmission-potential that is amplified exponentially in higher humidity. Dengue-positive districts were identified by mean temperature >22°C for 7+ weeks and minimum temperature >14°C for 33+ weeks annually with 95% sensitivity and specificity. In elevated-risk locations, seasonal peak-incidence occurred when mean temperature was 26-29°C, coincident with humidity at its local maximum; highest incidence when humidity >80%. We profile transmission-potential in weather-space for temperature

Weather Regulates Location, Timing, and Intensity of Dengue Virus Transmission between Humans and Mosquitoes.

PubMed

Campbell, Karen M; Haldeman, Kristin; Lehnig, Chris; Munayco, Cesar V; Halsey, Eric S; Laguna-Torres, V Alberto; Yagui, Martín; Morrison, Amy C; Lin, Chii-Dean; Scott, Thomas W

2015-01-01

Dengue is one of the most aggressively expanding mosquito-transmitted viruses. The human burden approaches 400 million infections annually. Complex transmission dynamics pose challenges for predicting location, timing, and magnitude of risk; thus, models are needed to guide prevention strategies and policy development locally and globally. Weather regulates transmission-potential via its effects on vector dynamics. An important gap in understanding risk and roadblock in model development is an empirical perspective clarifying how weather impacts transmission in diverse ecological settings. We sought to determine if location, timing, and potential-intensity of transmission are systematically defined by weather. We developed a high-resolution empirical profile of the local weather-disease connection across Peru, a country with considerable ecological diversity. Applying 2-dimensional weather-space that pairs temperature versus humidity, we mapped local transmission-potential in weather-space by week during 1994-2012. A binary classification-tree was developed to test whether weather data could classify 1828 Peruvian districts as positive/negative for transmission and into ranks of transmission-potential with respect to observed disease. We show that transmission-potential is regulated by temperature-humidity coupling, enabling epidemics in a limited area of weather-space. Duration within a specific temperature range defines transmission-potential that is amplified exponentially in higher humidity. Dengue-positive districts were identified by mean temperature >22°C for 7+ weeks and minimum temperature >14°C for 33+ weeks annually with 95% sensitivity and specificity. In elevated-risk locations, seasonal peak-incidence occurred when mean temperature was 26-29°C, coincident with humidity at its local maximum; highest incidence when humidity >80%. We profile transmission-potential in weather-space for temperature-humidity ranging 0-38°C and 5-100% at 1°C x 2

Impact of biodiversity and seasonality on Lyme-pathogen transmission.

PubMed

Lou, Yijun; Wu, Jianhong; Wu, Xiaotian

2014-11-28

Lyme disease imposes increasing global public health challenges. To better understand the joint effects of seasonal temperature variation and host community composition on the pathogen transmission, a stage-structured periodic model is proposed by integrating seasonal tick development and activity, multiple host species and complex pathogen transmission routes between ticks and reservoirs. Two thresholds, one for tick population dynamics and the other for Lyme-pathogen transmission dynamics, are identified and shown to fully classify the long-term outcomes of the tick invasion and disease persistence. Seeding with the realistic parameters, the tick reproduction threshold and Lyme disease spread threshold are estimated to illustrate the joint effects of the climate change and host community diversity on the pattern of Lyme disease risk. It is shown that climate warming can amplify the disease risk and slightly change the seasonality of disease risk. Both the "dilution effect" and "amplification effect" are observed by feeding the model with different possible alternative hosts. Therefore, the relationship between the host community biodiversity and disease risk varies, calling for more accurate measurements on the local environment, both biotic and abiotic such as the temperature and the host community composition.

Transmission Line Ampacity Improvements of AltaLink Wind Plant Overhead Tie-Lines Using Weather-Based Dynamic Line Rating

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bhattarai, Bishnu P.; Gentle, Jake P.; Hill, Porter

Abstract—Overhead transmission lines (TLs) are conventionally given seasonal ratings based on conservative environmental assumptions. Such an approach often results in underutilization of the line ampacity as the worst conditions prevail only for a short period over a year/season. We presents dynamic line rating (DLR) as an enabling smart grid technology that adaptively computes ratings of TLs based on local weather conditions to utilize additional headroom of existing lines. In particular, general line ampacity state solver utilizes measured weather data for computing the real-time thermal rating of the TLs. The performance of the presented method is demonstrated from a field studymore » of DLR technology implementation on four TL segments at AltaLink, Canada. The performance is evaluated and quantified by comparing the existing static and proposed dynamic line ratings, and the potential benefits of DLR for enhanced transmission assets utilization. For the given line segments, the proposed DLR results in real-time ratings above the seasonal static ratings for most of the time; up to 95.1% of the time, with a mean increase of 72% over static rating.« less

Transmission of vibration through gloves: effects of contact area.

PubMed

Md Rezali, Khairil Anas; Griffin, Michael J

2017-01-01

For three samples of material (12.5, 25.0 and 37.5 mm diameter) from each of three gloves, the dynamic stiffnesses and the vibration transmissibilities of the materials (to both the palm of the hand and the thenar eminence) were measured at frequencies from 10 to 300 Hz. Additional measurements showed the apparent masses of the hand at the palm and the thenar eminence were independent of contact area at frequencies less than about 40 Hz, but increased with increasing area at higher frequencies. The stiffness and damping of the glove materials increased with increasing area. These changes caused material transmissibilities to the hand to increase with increasing area. It is concluded that the size of the area of contact has a large influence on the transmission of vibration through a glove to the hand. The area of contact should be well-defined and controlled when evaluating the transmission of vibration through gloves. Practitioner Summary: The transmission of vibration through gloves depends on both the dynamic stiffness of glove material and the dynamic response of the hand. Both of these depend on the size of the contact area between a glove material and the hand, which should be taken into account when assessing glove transmissibility.

Toward the development of effective transmission-blocking vaccines for malaria.

PubMed

Nikolaeva, Daria; Draper, Simon J; Biswas, Sumi

2015-05-01

The continued global burden of malaria can in part be attributed to a complex lifecycle, with both human hosts and mosquito vectors serving as transmission reservoirs. In preclinical models of vaccine-induced immunity, antibodies to parasite sexual-stage antigens, ingested in the mosquito blood meal, can inhibit parasite survival in the insect midgut as judged by ex vivo functional studies such as the membrane feeding assay. In an era of renewed political momentum for malaria elimination and eradication campaigns, such observations have fueled support for the development and implementation of so-called transmission-blocking vaccines. While leading candidates are being evaluated using a variety of promising vaccine platforms, the field is also beginning to capitalize on global '-omics' data for the rational genome-based selection and unbiased characterization of parasite and mosquito proteins to expand the candidate list. This review covers the progress and prospects of these recent developments.

Successes and shortcomings of polio eradication: a transmission modeling analysis.

PubMed

Mayer, Bryan T; Eisenberg, Joseph N S; Henry, Christopher J; Gomes, M Gabriela M; Ionides, Edward L; Koopman, James S

2013-06-01

Polio eradication is on the cusp of success, with only a few regions still maintaining transmission. Improving our understanding of why some regions have been successful and others have not will help with both global eradication of polio and development of more effective vaccination strategies for other pathogens. To examine the past 25 years of eradication efforts, we constructed a transmission model for wild poliovirus that incorporates waning immunity (which affects both infection risk and transmissibility of any resulting infection), age-mediated vaccination rates, and transmission of oral polio vaccine. The model produces results consistent with the 4 country categories defined by the Global Polio Eradication Program: elimination with no subsequent outbreaks; elimination with subsequent transient outbreaks; elimination with subsequent outbreaks and transmission detected for more than 12 months; and endemic polio transmission. Analysis of waning immunity rates and oral polio vaccine transmissibility reveals that higher waning immunity rates make eradication more difficult because of increasing numbers of infectious adults, and that higher oral polio vaccine transmission rates make eradication easier as adults become reimmunized. Given these dynamic properties, attention should be given to intervention strategies that complement childhood vaccination. For example, improvement in sanitation can reduce the reproduction number in problematic regions, and adult vaccination can lower adult transmission.

System for computer controlled shifting of an automatic transmission

DOEpatents

Patil, Prabhakar B.

1989-01-01

In an automotive vehicle having an automatic transmission that driveably connects a power source to the driving wheels, a method to control the application of hydraulic pressure to a clutch, whose engagement produces an upshift and whose disengagement produces a downshift, the speed of the power source, and the output torque of the transmission. The transmission output shaft torque and the power source speed are the controlled variables. The commanded power source torque and commanded hydraulic pressure supplied to the clutch are the control variables. A mathematical model is formulated that describes the kinematics and dynamics of the powertrain before, during and after a gear shift. The model represents the operating characteristics of each component and the structural arrangement of the components within the transmission being controlled. Next, a close loop feedback control is developed to determine the proper control law or compensation strategy to achieve an acceptably smooth gear ratio change, one in which the output torque disturbance is kept to a minimum and the duration of the shift is minimized. Then a computer algorithm simulating the shift dynamics employing the mathematical model is used to study the effects of changes in the values of the parameters established from a closed loop control of the clutch hydraulic and the power source torque on the shift quality. This computer simulation is used also to establish possible shift control strategies. The shift strategies determine from the prior step are reduced to an algorithm executed by a computer to control the operation of the power source and the transmission.

Contact, Travel, and Transmission: The Impact of Winter Holidays on Influenza Dynamics in the United States.

PubMed

Ewing, Anne; Lee, Elizabeth C; Viboud, Cécile; Bansal, Shweta

2017-03-01

The seasonality of influenza is thought to vary according to environmental factors and human behavior. During winter holidays, potential disease-causing contact and travel deviate from typical patterns. We aim to understand these changes on age-specific and spatial influenza transmission. We characterized the changes to transmission and epidemic trajectories among children and adults in a spatial context before, during, and after the winter holidays among aggregated physician medical claims in the United States from 2001 to 2009 and among synthetic data simulated from a deterministic, age-specific spatial metapopulation model. Winter holidays reduced influenza transmission and delayed the trajectory of influenza season epidemics. The holiday period was marked by a shift in the relative risk of disease from children toward adults. Model results indicated that holidays delayed epidemic peaks and synchronized incidence across locations, and that contact reductions from school closures, rather than age-specific mixing and travel, produced these observed holiday influenza dynamics. Winter holidays delay seasonal influenza epidemic peaks and shift disease risk toward adults because of changes in contact patterns. These findings may inform targeted influenza information and vaccination campaigns during holiday periods. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Transportation properties of a high-current magnetically insulated transmission line and dynamics of the electrode plasma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anan'ev, S. S.; Bakshaev, Yu. L.; Bartov, A. V.; Blinov, P. I.; Dan'ko, S. A.; Zhuzhunashvili, A. I.; Kazakov, E. D.; Kalinin, Yu. G.; Kingsep, A. S.; Korolev, V. D.; Mizhiritskii, V. I.; Smirnov, V. P.; Tkachenko, S. I.; Chernenko, A. S.

2008-07-01

Results are presented from experimental studies of a section of a magnetically insulated transmission line (MITL) with a current density of up to 500 MA/cm2 and linear current density of up to 7 MA/cm (the parameters close to those in a fast-Z-pinch-driven fusion reactor projected at Sandia Laboratories). The experiments were performed in the S-300 facility (3 MA, 0.15 Ω, 100 ns). At high linear current densities, the surface of the ohmically heated MITL electrode can explode and a plasma layer can form near the electrode surface. As a result, the MITL can lose its transmission properties due to the shunting of the vacuum gap by the plasma produced. In this series of experiments, the dynamics of the electrode plasma and the dependence of the transmission properties of the MITL on the material and cleanness of the electrode surface were studied. It is shown experimentally that, when the current with a linear density of up to 7 MA/cm begins to flow along a model MITL, the input and output currents differ by less than 10% over a time interval of up to 230 ns for nickel electrodes and up to 350 ns for a line with a gold central electrode. No effect of the oil film present on the electrode surface on the loss of the transmission properties of the line was observed. It is also shown that electron losses insignificantly contribute to the total current balance. The experimental results are compared with calculations of the electrode explosion and the subsequent expansion of the plasma layer. A conclusion is made that the life-time of the model MITL satisfies the requirements imposed on the transmission lines intended for use in the projected thermonuclear reactor.

Estimation of the dynamics and rate of transmission of classical swine fever (hog cholera) in wild pigs.

PubMed Central

Hone, J.; Pech, R.; Yip, P.

1992-01-01

Infectious diseases establish in a population of wildlife hosts when the number of secondary infections is greater than or equal to one. To estimate whether establishment will occur requires extensive experience or a mathematical model of disease dynamics and estimates of the parameters of the disease model. The latter approach is explored here. Methods for estimating key model parameters, the transmission coefficient (beta) and the basic reproductive rate (RDRS), are described using classical swine fever (hog cholera) in wild pigs as an example. The tentative results indicate that an acute infection of classical swine fever will establish in a small population of wild pigs. Data required for estimation of disease transmission rates are reviewed and sources of bias and alternative methods discussed. A comprehensive evaluation of the biases and efficiencies of the methods is needed. PMID:1582476

Transmission Dynamics, Border Entry Screening, and School Holidays during the 2009 Influenza A (H1N1) Pandemic, China

PubMed Central

Yu, Hongjie; Cauchemez, Simon; Donnelly, Christl A.; Zhou, Lei; Feng, Luzhao; Xiang, Nijuan; Zheng, Jiandong; Ye, Min; Huai, Yang; Liao, Qiaohong; Peng, Zhibin; Feng, Yunxia; Jiang, Hui; Yang, Weizhong; Wang, Yu; Feng, Zijian

2012-01-01

Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus spread rapidly around the world in 2009. We used multiple data sources from surveillance systems and specific investigations to characterize the transmission patterns of this virus in China during May–November 2009 and analyze the effectiveness of border entry screening and holiday-related school closures on transmission. In China, age distribution and transmission dynamic characteristics were similar to those in Northern Hemisphere temperate countries. The epidemic was focused in children, with an effective reproduction number of ≈1.2–1.3. The 8 days of national holidays in October reduced the effective reproduction number by 37% (95% credible interval 28%–45%) and increased underreporting by ≈20%–30%. Border entry screening detected at most 37% of international travel–related cases, with most (89%) persons identified as having fever at time of entry. These findings suggest that border entry screening was unlikely to have delayed spread in China by >4 days. PMID:22515989

Development of Matlab Simulink model for dynamics analysis of passive suspension system for lightweight vehicle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jamali, M. S.; Ismail, K. A.; Taha, Z.; Aiman, M. F.

2017-10-01

In designing suitable isolators to reduce unwanted vibration in vehicles, the response from a mathematical model which characterizes the transmissibility ratio of the input and output of the vehicle is required. In this study, a Matlab Simulink model is developed to study the dynamic behaviour performance of passive suspension system for a lightweight electric vehicle. The Simulink model is based on the two degrees of freedom system quarter car model. The model is compared to the theoretical plots of the transmissibility ratios between the amplitudes of the displacements and accelerations of the sprung and unsprung masses to the amplitudes of the ground, against the frequencies at different damping values. It was found that the frequency responses obtained from the theoretical calculations and from the Simulink simulation is comparable to each other. Hence, the model may be extended to a full vehicle model.

A systematic review of transmission dynamic studies of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in non-hospital residential facilities.

PubMed

Kwok, Kin On; Read, Jonathan M; Tang, Arthur; Chen, Hong; Riley, Steven; Kam, Kai Man

2018-04-18

Non-hospital residential facilities are important reservoirs for MRSA transmission. However, conclusions and public health implications drawn from the many mathematical models depicting nosocomial MRSA transmission may not be applicable to these settings. Therefore, we reviewed the MRSA transmission dynamics studies in defined non-hospital residential facilities to: (1) provide an overview of basic epidemiology which has been addressed; (2) identify future research direction; and (3) improve future model implementation. A review was conducted by searching related keywords in PUBMED without time restriction as well as internet searches via Google search engine. We included only articles describing the epidemiological transmission pathways of MRSA/community-associated MRSA within and between defined non-hospital residential settings. Among the 10 included articles, nursing homes (NHs) and correctional facilities (CFs) were two settings considered most frequently. Importation of colonized residents was a plausible reason for MRSA outbreaks in NHs, where MRSA was endemic without strict infection control interventions. The importance of NHs over hospitals in increasing nosocomial MRSA prevalence was highlighted. Suggested interventions in NHs included: appropriate staffing level, screening and decolonizing, and hand hygiene. On the other hand, the small population amongst inmates in CFs has no effect on MRSA community transmission. Included models ranged from system-level compartmental models to agent-based models. There was no consensus over the course of disease progression in these models, which were mainly featured with NH residents /CF inmates/ hospital patients as transmission pathways. Some parameters used by these models were outdated or unfit. Importance of NHs has been highlighted from these current studies addressing scattered aspects of MRSA epidemiology. However, the wide variety of non-hospital residential settings suggest that more work is needed before

Vibration signature analysis of multistage gear transmission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choy, F. K.; Tu, Y. K.; Savage, M.; Townsend, D. P.

1989-01-01

An analysis is presented for multistage multimesh gear transmission systems. The analysis predicts the overall system dynamics and the transmissibility to the gear box or the enclosed structure. The modal synthesis approach of the analysis treats the uncoupled lateral/torsional model characteristics of each stage or component independently. The vibration signature analysis evaluates the global dynamics coupling in the system. The method synthesizes the interaction of each modal component or stage with the nonlinear gear mesh dynamics and the modal support geometry characteristics. The analysis simulates transient and steady state vibration events to determine the resulting torque variations, speeds, changes, rotor imbalances, and support gear box motion excitations. A vibration signature analysis examines the overall dynamic characteristics of the system, and the individual model component responses. The gear box vibration analysis also examines the spectral characteristics of the support system.

Dynamic quality of service model for improving performance of multimedia real-time transmission in industrial networks.

PubMed

Gopalakrishnan, Ravichandran C; Karunakaran, Manivannan

2014-01-01

Nowadays, quality of service (QoS) is very popular in various research areas like distributed systems, multimedia real-time applications and networking. The requirements of these systems are to satisfy reliability, uptime, security constraints and throughput as well as application specific requirements. The real-time multimedia applications are commonly distributed over the network and meet various time constraints across networks without creating any intervention over control flows. In particular, video compressors make variable bit-rate streams that mismatch the constant-bit-rate channels typically provided by classical real-time protocols, severely reducing the efficiency of network utilization. Thus, it is necessary to enlarge the communication bandwidth to transfer the compressed multimedia streams using Flexible Time Triggered- Enhanced Switched Ethernet (FTT-ESE) protocol. FTT-ESE provides automation to calculate the compression level and change the bandwidth of the stream. This paper focuses on low-latency multimedia transmission over Ethernet with dynamic quality-of-service (QoS) management. This proposed framework deals with a dynamic QoS for multimedia transmission over Ethernet with FTT-ESE protocol. This paper also presents distinct QoS metrics based both on the image quality and network features. Some experiments with recorded and live video streams show the advantages of the proposed framework. To validate the solution we have designed and implemented a simulator based on the Matlab/Simulink, which is a tool to evaluate different network architecture using Simulink blocks.

A dynamic, climate-driven model of Rift Valley fever.

PubMed

Leedale, Joseph; Jones, Anne E; Caminade, Cyril; Morse, Andrew P

2016-03-31

Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in eastern Africa have previously occurred following specific rainfall dynamics and flooding events that appear to support the emergence of large numbers of mosquito vectors. As such, transmission of the virus is considered to be sensitive to environmental conditions and therefore changes in climate can impact the spatiotemporal dynamics of epizootic vulnerability. Epidemiological information describing the methods and parameters of RVF transmission and its dependence on climatic factors are used to develop a new spatio-temporal mathematical model that simulates these dynamics and can predict the impact of changes in climate. The Liverpool RVF (LRVF) model is a new dynamic, process-based model driven by climate data that provides a predictive output of geographical changes in RVF outbreak susceptibility as a result of the climate and local livestock immunity. This description of the multi-disciplinary process of model development is accessible to mathematicians, epidemiological modellers and climate scientists, uniting dynamic mathematical modelling, empirical parameterisation and state-of-the-art climate information.

Preventing mother-to-child transmission of HIV in Vietnam and Indonesia: diverging care dynamics.

PubMed

Hardon, Anita Petra; Oosterhoff, Pauline; Imelda, Johanna D; Anh, Nguyen Thu; Hidayana, Irwan

2009-09-01

How do women and frontline health workers engage in preventing mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT) in urban areas of Vietnam and Indonesia, where HIV is highly stigmatized and is associated with injecting drug use and sex work? This qualitative study explores local dynamics of care, using a mix of observations, focus group discussions, and interviews. In Indonesia the study was conducted in a community-based PMTCT program run by an NGO, while in Vietnam the study explored the care dynamics in routine PMTCT services, implemented by district and provincial public health facilities. In both of these PMTCT arrangements (the routine provider initiated approach in Vietnam and a more client-oriented system in Indonesia), pregnant women value the provision of HIV tests in antenatal care (ANC). Concerns are raised, however, by the unhappy few who test positive. These women are unsatisfied with the quality of counselling, and the failure to provide antiretroviral treatments. Acceptability of HIV testing in ANC is high, but the key policy issue from the perspective of pregnant women is whether the PMTCT services can provide good quality counselling and the necessary follow-up care. We find local level providers of PMTCT are pleased with the PMTCT program. In Vietnam, the PMTCT program offers health workers protection against HIV, since they can refer women away from the district health service for delivery. In Indonesia, community cadres are pleased with the financial incentives gained by mobilizing clients for the program. We conclude that achieving the global aims of reducing HIV infections in children by 50% requires a tailoring of globally designed public health programs to context-specific gendered transmission pathways of HIV, as well as local opportunities for follow-up care and social support.

Estimating malaria transmission from humans to mosquitoes in a noisy landscape.

PubMed

Reiner, Robert C; Guerra, Carlos; Donnelly, Martin J; Bousema, Teun; Drakeley, Chris; Smith, David L

2015-10-06

A basic quantitative understanding of malaria transmission requires measuring the probability a mosquito becomes infected after feeding on a human. Parasite prevalence in mosquitoes is highly age-dependent, and the unknown age-structure of fluctuating mosquito populations impedes estimation. Here, we simulate mosquito infection dynamics, where mosquito recruitment is modelled seasonally with fractional Brownian noise, and we develop methods for estimating mosquito infection rates. We find that noise introduces bias, but the magnitude of the bias depends on the 'colour' of the noise. Some of these problems can be overcome by increasing the sampling frequency, but estimates of transmission rates (and estimated reductions in transmission) are most accurate and precise if they combine parity, oocyst rates and sporozoite rates. These studies provide a basis for evaluating the adequacy of various entomological sampling procedures for measuring malaria parasite transmission from humans to mosquitoes and for evaluating the direct transmission-blocking effects of a vaccine. © 2015 The Authors.

Estimating malaria transmission from humans to mosquitoes in a noisy landscape

PubMed Central

Reiner, Robert C.; Guerra, Carlos; Donnelly, Martin J.; Bousema, Teun; Drakeley, Chris; Smith, David L.

2015-01-01

A basic quantitative understanding of malaria transmission requires measuring the probability a mosquito becomes infected after feeding on a human. Parasite prevalence in mosquitoes is highly age-dependent, and the unknown age-structure of fluctuating mosquito populations impedes estimation. Here, we simulate mosquito infection dynamics, where mosquito recruitment is modelled seasonally with fractional Brownian noise, and we develop methods for estimating mosquito infection rates. We find that noise introduces bias, but the magnitude of the bias depends on the ‘colour' of the noise. Some of these problems can be overcome by increasing the sampling frequency, but estimates of transmission rates (and estimated reductions in transmission) are most accurate and precise if they combine parity, oocyst rates and sporozoite rates. These studies provide a basis for evaluating the adequacy of various entomological sampling procedures for measuring malaria parasite transmission from humans to mosquitoes and for evaluating the direct transmission-blocking effects of a vaccine. PMID:26400195

The complex relationship between weather and dengue virus transmission in Thailand.

PubMed

Campbell, Karen M; Lin, C D; Iamsirithaworn, Sopon; Scott, Thomas W

2013-12-01

Using a novel analytical approach, weather dynamics and seasonal dengue virus transmission cycles were profiled for each Thailand province, 1983-2001, using monthly assessments of cases, temperature, humidity, and rainfall. We observed systematic differences in the structure of seasonal transmission cycles of different magnitude, the role of weather in regulating seasonal cycles, necessary versus optimal transmission "weather-space," basis of large epidemics, and predictive indicators that estimate risk. Larger epidemics begin earlier, develop faster, and are predicted at Onset change-point when case counts are low. Temperature defines a viable range for transmission; humidity amplifies the potential within that range. This duality is central to transmission. Eighty percent of 1.2 million severe dengue cases occurred when mean temperature was 27-29.5°C and mean humidity was > 75%. Interventions are most effective when applied early. Most cases occur near Peak, yet small reductions at Onset can substantially reduce epidemic magnitude. Monitoring the Quiet-Phase is fundamental in effectively targeting interventions pre-emptively.

Basic Reproduction Number and Transmission Dynamics of Common Serogroups of Enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli.

PubMed

Chen, Shi; Sanderson, Michael W; Lee, Chihoon; Cernicchiaro, Natalia; Renter, David G; Lanzas, Cristina

2016-09-15

Understanding the transmission dynamics of pathogens is essential to determine the epidemiology, ecology, and ways of controlling enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC) in animals and their environments. Our objective was to estimate the epidemiological fitness of common EHEC strains in cattle populations. For that purpose, we developed a Markov chain model to characterize the dynamics of 7 serogroups of enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (O26, O45, O103, O111, O121, O145, and O157) in cattle production environments based on a set of cross-sectional data on infection prevalence in 2 years in two U.S. states. The basic reproduction number (R0) was estimated using a Bayesian framework for each serogroup based on two criteria (using serogroup alone [the O-group data] and using O serogroup, Shiga toxin gene[s], and intimin [eae] gene together [the EHEC data]). In addition, correlations between external covariates (e.g., location, ambient temperature, dietary, and probiotic usage) and prevalence/R0 were quantified. R0 estimates varied substantially among different EHEC serogroups, with EHEC O157 having an R0 of >1 (∼1.5) and all six other EHEC serogroups having an R0 of less than 1. Using the O-group data substantially increased R0 estimates for the O26, O45, and O103 serogroups (R0 > 1) but not for the others. Different covariates had distinct influences on different serogroups: the coefficients for each covariate were different among serogroups. Our modeling and analysis of this system can be readily expanded to other pathogen systems in order to estimate the pathogen and external factors that influence spread of infectious agents. In this paper we describe a Bayesian modeling framework to estimate basic reproduction numbers of multiple serotypes of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli according to a cross-sectional study. We then coupled a compartmental model to reconstruct the infection dynamics of these serotypes and quantify their risk in the population. We

Basic Reproduction Number and Transmission Dynamics of Common Serogroups of Enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli

PubMed Central

Sanderson, Michael W.; Lee, Chihoon; Cernicchiaro, Natalia; Renter, David G.; Lanzas, Cristina

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Understanding the transmission dynamics of pathogens is essential to determine the epidemiology, ecology, and ways of controlling enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC) in animals and their environments. Our objective was to estimate the epidemiological fitness of common EHEC strains in cattle populations. For that purpose, we developed a Markov chain model to characterize the dynamics of 7 serogroups of enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (O26, O45, O103, O111, O121, O145, and O157) in cattle production environments based on a set of cross-sectional data on infection prevalence in 2 years in two U.S. states. The basic reproduction number (R0) was estimated using a Bayesian framework for each serogroup based on two criteria (using serogroup alone [the O-group data] and using O serogroup, Shiga toxin gene[s], and intimin [eae] gene together [the EHEC data]). In addition, correlations between external covariates (e.g., location, ambient temperature, dietary, and probiotic usage) and prevalence/R0 were quantified. R0 estimates varied substantially among different EHEC serogroups, with EHEC O157 having an R0 of >1 (∼1.5) and all six other EHEC serogroups having an R0 of less than 1. Using the O-group data substantially increased R0 estimates for the O26, O45, and O103 serogroups (R0 > 1) but not for the others. Different covariates had distinct influences on different serogroups: the coefficients for each covariate were different among serogroups. Our modeling and analysis of this system can be readily expanded to other pathogen systems in order to estimate the pathogen and external factors that influence spread of infectious agents. IMPORTANCE In this paper we describe a Bayesian modeling framework to estimate basic reproduction numbers of multiple serotypes of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli according to a cross-sectional study. We then coupled a compartmental model to reconstruct the infection dynamics of these serotypes and quantify their risk

Split torque transmission load sharing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krantz, T. L.; Rashidi, M.; Kish, J. G.

1992-01-01

Split torque transmissions are attractive alternatives to conventional planetary designs for helicopter transmissions. The split torque designs can offer lighter weight and fewer parts but have not been used extensively for lack of experience, especially with obtaining proper load sharing. Two split torque designs that use different load sharing methods have been studied. Precise indexing and alignment of the geartrain to produce acceptable load sharing has been demonstrated. An elastomeric torque splitter that has large torsional compliance and damping produces even better load sharing while reducing dynamic transmission error and noise. However, the elastomeric torque splitter as now configured is not capable over the full range of operating conditions of a fielded system. A thrust balancing load sharing device was evaluated. Friction forces that oppose the motion of the balance mechanism are significant. A static analysis suggests increasing the helix angle of the input pinion of the thrust balancing design. Also, dynamic analysis of this design predicts good load sharing and significant torsional response to accumulative pitch errors of the gears.

Vertical Transmission of Hepatitis C Virus: Variable Transmission Bottleneck and Evidence of Midgestation In Utero Infection.

PubMed

Fauteux-Daniel, Sébastien; Larouche, Ariane; Calderon, Virginie; Boulais, Jonathan; Béland, Chanel; Ransy, Doris G; Boucher, Marc; Lamarre, Valérie; Lapointe, Normand; Boucoiran, Isabelle; Le Campion, Armelle; Soudeyns, Hugo

2017-12-01

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) can be transmitted from mother to child during pregnancy and childbirth. However, the timing and precise biological mechanisms that are involved in this process are incompletely understood, as are the determinants that influence transmission of particular HCV variants. Here we report results of a longitudinal assessment of HCV quasispecies diversity and composition in 5 cases of vertical HCV transmission, including 3 women coinfected with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1). The population structure of HCV variant spectra based on E2 envelope gene sequences (nucleotide positions 1491 to 1787), including hypervariable regions 1 and 2, was characterized using next-generation sequencing and median-joining network analysis. Compatible with a loose transmission bottleneck, larger numbers of shared HCV variants were observed in the presence of maternal coinfection. Coalescent Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations revealed median times of transmission between 24.9 weeks and 36.1 weeks of gestation, with some confidence intervals ranging into the 1st trimester, considerably earlier than previously thought. Using recombinant autologous HCV pseudoparticles, differences were uncovered in HCV-specific antibody responses between coinfected mothers and mothers infected with HCV alone, in whom generalized absence of neutralization was observed. Finally, shifts in HCV quasispecies composition were seen in children around 1 year of age, compatible with the disappearance of passively transferred maternal immunoglobulins and/or the development of HCV-specific humoral immunity. Taken together, these results provide insights into the timing, dynamics, and biologic mechanisms involved in vertical HCV transmission and inform preventative strategies. IMPORTANCE Although it is well established that hepatitis C virus (HCV) can be transmitted from mother to child, the manner and the moment at which transmission operates have been the subject of

X-ray transmission microscope development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaukler, William F.; Rosenberger, Franz E.

1995-01-01

We are developing a hard x-ray microscope for direct observation of solidification dynamics in metal alloys and metal matrix composites. The Fein-Focus Inc. x-ray source was delivered in September and found to perform better than expected. Confirmed resolution of better than 2 micrometers was obtained and magnifications up to 800X were measured. Nickel beads of 30 micrometer diameter were easily detected through 6mm of aluminum. X-ray metallography was performed on several specimens showing high resolution and clear definition of 3-dimensional structures. Prototype furnace installed and tested.

Transmission dynamics and prospective environmental sampling of adenovirus in a military recruit setting.

PubMed

Russell, Kevin L; Broderick, Michael P; Franklin, Suzanne E; Blyn, Lawrence B; Freed, Nikki E; Moradi, Emily; Ecker, David J; Kammerer, Peter E; Osuna, Miguel A; Kajon, Adriana E; Morn, Cassandra B; Ryan, Margaret A K

2006-10-01

High levels of morbidity caused by adenovirus among US military recruits have returned since the loss of adenovirus vaccines in 1999. The transmission dynamics of adenovirus have never been well understood, which complicates prevention efforts. Enrollment and end-of-study samples were obtained and active surveillance for febrile respiratory illnesses (FRIs) was performed for 341 recruits and support personnel. Environmental samples were collected simultaneously. Classic and advanced diagnostic techniques were used. Seventy-nine percent (213/271) of new recruits were seronegative for either adenovirus serotype 4 (Ad-4) or adenovirus serotype 7 (Ad-7). FRI caused by Ad-4 was observed in 25% (67/271) of enrolled recruits, with 100% of them occurring in individuals with enrollment titers <1 : 4. The percentage of recruits seropositive for Ad-4 increased from 34% at enrollment to 97% by the end of the study. Adenovirus was most commonly detected in the environment on pillows, lockers, and rifles. Potential sources of adenovirus transmission among US military recruits included the presence of adenovirus on surfaces in living quarters and extended pharyngeal viral shedding over the course of several days. The introduction of new recruits, who were still shedding adenovirus, into new training groups was documented. Serological screening could identify susceptible recruits for the optimal use of available vaccines. New high-throughput technologies show promise in providing valuable data for clinical and research applications.

Transmission blocking malaria vaccines: Assays and candidates in clinical development.

PubMed

Sauerwein, R W; Bousema, T

2015-12-22

Stimulated by recent advances in malaria control and increased funding, the elimination of malaria is now considered to be an attainable goal for an increasing number of malaria-endemic regions. This has boosted the interest in transmission-reducing interventions including vaccines that target sexual, sporogenic, and/or mosquito-stage antigens to interrupt malaria transmission (SSM-VIMT). SSM-VIMT aim to prevent human malaria infection in vaccinated communities by inhibiting parasite development within the mosquito after a blood meal taken from a gametocyte carrier. Only a handful of target antigens are in clinical development and progress has been slow over the years. Major stumbling blocks include (i) the expression of appropriately folded target proteins and their downstream purification, (ii) insufficient induction of sustained functional blocking antibody titers by candidate vaccines in humans, and (iii) validation of a number of (bio)-assays as correlate for blocking activity in the field. Here we discuss clinical manufacturing and testing of current SSM-VIMT candidates and the latest bio-assay development for clinical evaluation. New testing strategies are discussed that may accelerate the evaluation and application of SSM-VIMT. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Disease transmission by cannibalism: rare event or common occurrence?

PubMed

Rudolf, Volker H W; Antonovics, Janis

2007-05-07

Cannibalism has been documented as a possible disease transmission route in several species, including humans. However, the dynamics resulting from this type of disease transmission are not well understood. Using a theoretical model, we explore how cannibalism (i.e. killing and consumption of dead conspecifics) and intraspecific necrophagy (i.e. consumption of dead conspecifics) affect host-pathogen dynamics. We show that group cannibalism, i.e. shared consumption of victims, is a necessary condition for disease spread by cannibalism in the absence of alternative transmission modes. Thus, endemic diseases transmitted predominantly by cannibalism are likely to be rare, except in social organisms that share conspecific prey. These results are consistent with a review of the literature showing that diseases transmitted by cannibalism are infrequent in animals, even though both cannibalism and trophic transmission are very common.

Towards development of a fiber optic-based transmission monitoring system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baldwin, Chris S.; Kiddy, Jason S.; Samuel, Paul D.

2011-06-01

There is interest in the rotorcraft community to develop health monitoring technologies. Among these technologies is the ability to monitor the transmission planetary gear system. The gearbox environment does not lend itself to traditional sensing technologies due to the harsh environment and crowed space. Traditional vibration-based diagnostics are based on the output from externally mounted sensors, usually accelerometers fixed to the gearbox exterior. This type of system relies on the ability of the vibration signal to travel from the gears through the gearbox housing. These sensors are also susceptible to other interference including electrical magnetic interference (EMI). For these reasons, the development of a fiber optic-based transmission monitoring system represents an appealing alternative to the accelerometer due to their resistance to EMI and other signal corrupting influences. Aither Engineering has been working on integrating the fiber optic sensors into the gearbox environment to measure strain on the ring gear of the planetary gear system. This application utilizes a serial array of wavelength division multiplexed fiber Bragg grating (FBG) sensors. Work in this area has been conducted at both the University of Maryland, College Park and more recently at the NASA Glenn Research Center (NGRC) OH-58 transmission test rig facility. This paper discusses some of the testing results collected from the fiber optic ring gear sensor array. Based on these results, recommendations for system requirements are addressed in terms of the capabilities of the FBG instrumentation.

Bordetella pertussis transmission

PubMed Central

Trainor, Elizabeth A.; Nicholson, Tracy L.; Merkel, Tod J.

2015-01-01

Bordetella pertussis and B. bronchiseptica are Gram-negative bacterial respiratory pathogens. Bordetella pertussis is the causative agent of whooping cough and is considered a human-adapted variant of B. bronchiseptica. Bordetella pertussis and B. bronchiseptica share mechanisms of pathogenesis and are genetically closely related. However, despite the close genetic relatedness, these Bordetella species differ in several classic fundamental aspects of bacterial pathogens such as host range, pathologies and persistence. The development of the baboon model for the study of B. pertussis transmission, along with the development of the swine and mouse model for the study of B. bronchiseptica, has enabled the investigation of different aspects of transmission including the route, attack rate, role of bacterial and host factors, and the impact of vaccination on transmission. This review will focus on B. pertussis transmission and how animal models of B. pertussis transmission and transmission models using the closely related B. bronchiseptica have increased our understanding of B. pertussis transmission. PMID:26374235

Transmission seal development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brien, M.

1977-01-01

An experimental evaluation was performed on a high-speed (72.9 m/s, 14,349 ft/min) transmission seal of the synergistic type. During testing of the seal, oil leakage occurred at positive bearing cavity pressures. Modifications were made in an attempt to eliminate the leakage but none were completely successful. Leakage appears to be the result of questionable positioning of the sealing elements resulting in inadequate shaft contact by the oil side sealing element. This condition may be related to the nonsymmetrical shape of the elastomeric retainer and to dimensional changes caused by swelling of the elastomeric retainer from exposure to the sealed fluid. Indications of a speed dependent leakage characteristic were also observed.

Adaptive Modulation for DFIG and STATCOM With High-Voltage Direct Current Transmission.

PubMed

Tang, Yufei; He, Haibo; Ni, Zhen; Wen, Jinyu; Huang, Tingwen

2016-08-01

This paper develops an adaptive modulation approach for power system control based on the approximate/adaptive dynamic programming method, namely, the goal representation heuristic dynamic programming (GrHDP). In particular, we focus on the fault recovery problem of a doubly fed induction generator (DFIG)-based wind farm and a static synchronous compensator (STATCOM) with high-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission. In this design, the online GrHDP-based controller provides three adaptive supplementary control signals to the DFIG controller, STATCOM controller, and HVDC rectifier controller, respectively. The mechanism is to observe the system states and their derivatives and then provides supplementary control to the plant according to the utility function. With the GrHDP design, the controller can adaptively develop an internal goal representation signal according to the observed power system states, therefore, to achieve more effective learning and modulating. Our control approach is validated on a wind power integrated benchmark system with two areas connected by HVDC transmission lines. Compared with the classical direct HDP and proportional integral control, our GrHDP approach demonstrates the improved transient stability under system faults. Moreover, experiments under different system operating conditions with signal transmission delays are also carried out to further verify the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed approach.

Modelling Parasite Transmission in a Grazing System: The Importance of Host Behaviour and Immunity

PubMed Central

Fox, Naomi J.; Marion, Glenn; Davidson, Ross S.; White, Piran C. L.; Hutchings, Michael R.

2013-01-01

Parasitic helminths present one of the most pervasive challenges to grazing herbivores. Many macro-parasite transmission models focus on host physiological defence strategies, omitting more complex interactions between hosts and their environments. This work represents the first model that integrates both the behavioural and physiological elements of gastro-intestinal nematode transmission dynamics in a managed grazing system. A spatially explicit, individual-based, stochastic model is developed, that incorporates both the hosts’ immunological responses to parasitism, and key grazing behaviours including faecal avoidance. The results demonstrate that grazing behaviour affects both the timing and intensity of parasite outbreaks, through generating spatial heterogeneity in parasite risk and nutritional resources, and changing the timing of exposure to the parasites’ free-living stages. The influence of grazing behaviour varies with the host-parasite combination, dependent on the development times of different parasite species and variations in host immune response. Our outputs include the counterintuitive finding that under certain conditions perceived parasite avoidance behaviours (faecal avoidance) can increase parasite risk, for certain host-parasite combinations. Through incorporating the two-way interaction between infection dynamics and grazing behaviour, the potential benefits of parasite-induced anorexia are also demonstrated. Hosts with phenotypic plasticity in grazing behaviour, that make grazing decisions dependent on current parasite burden, can reduce infection with minimal loss of intake over the grazing season. This paper explores how both host behaviours and immunity influence macro-parasite transmission in a spatially and temporally heterogeneous environment. The magnitude and timing of parasite outbreaks is influenced by host immunity and behaviour, and the interactions between them; the incorporation of both regulatory processes is required to

PSHFT - COMPUTERIZED LIFE AND RELIABILITY MODELLING FOR TURBOPROP TRANSMISSIONS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Savage, M.

1994-01-01

The computer program PSHFT calculates the life of a variety of aircraft transmissions. A generalized life and reliability model is presented for turboprop and parallel shaft geared prop-fan aircraft transmissions. The transmission life and reliability model is a combination of the individual reliability models for all the bearings and gears in the main load paths. The bearing and gear reliability models are based on the statistical two parameter Weibull failure distribution method and classical fatigue theories. The computer program developed to calculate the transmission model is modular. In its present form, the program can analyze five different transmissions arrangements. Moreover, the program can be easily modified to include additional transmission arrangements. PSHFT uses the properties of a common block two-dimensional array to separate the component and transmission property values from the analysis subroutines. The rows correspond to specific components with the first row containing the values for the entire transmission. Columns contain the values for specific properties. Since the subroutines (which determine the transmission life and dynamic capacity) interface solely with this property array, they are separated from any specific transmission configuration. The system analysis subroutines work in an identical manner for all transmission configurations considered. Thus, other configurations can be added to the program by simply adding component property determination subroutines. PSHFT consists of a main program, a series of configuration specific subroutines, generic component property analysis subroutines, systems analysis subroutines, and a common block. The main program selects the routines to be used in the analysis and sequences their operation. The series of configuration specific subroutines input the configuration data, perform the component force and life analyses (with the help of the generic component property analysis subroutines), fill the

Modeling the transmission of community-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus: a dynamic agent-based simulation.

PubMed

Macal, Charles M; North, Michael J; Collier, Nicholson; Dukic, Vanja M; Wegener, Duane T; David, Michael Z; Daum, Robert S; Schumm, Philip; Evans, James A; Wilder, Jocelyn R; Miller, Loren G; Eells, Samantha J; Lauderdale, Diane S

2014-05-12

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) has been a deadly pathogen in healthcare settings since the 1960s, but MRSA epidemiology changed since 1990 with new genetically distinct strain types circulating among previously healthy people outside healthcare settings. Community-associated (CA) MRSA strains primarily cause skin and soft tissue infections, but may also cause life-threatening invasive infections. First seen in Australia and the U.S., it is a growing problem around the world. The U.S. has had the most widespread CA-MRSA epidemic, with strain type USA300 causing the great majority of infections. Individuals with either asymptomatic colonization or infection may transmit CA-MRSA to others, largely by skin-to-skin contact. Control measures have focused on hospital transmission. Limited public health education has focused on care for skin infections. We developed a fine-grained agent-based model for Chicago to identify where to target interventions to reduce CA-MRSA transmission. An agent-based model allows us to represent heterogeneity in population behavior, locations and contact patterns that are highly relevant for CA-MRSA transmission and control. Drawing on nationally representative survey data, the model represents variation in sociodemographics, locations, behaviors, and physical contact patterns. Transmission probabilities are based on a comprehensive literature review. Over multiple 10-year runs with one-hour ticks, our model generates temporal and geographic trends in CA-MRSA incidence similar to Chicago from 2001 to 2010. On average, a majority of transmission events occurred in households, and colonized rather than infected agents were the source of the great majority (over 95%) of transmission events. The key findings are that infected people are not the primary source of spread. Rather, the far greater number of colonized individuals must be targeted to reduce transmission. Our findings suggest that current paradigms in MRSA control in

Dynamic analysis and assessment for sustainable development.

PubMed

Shi, Xiao-qing

2002-01-01

The assessment of sustainable development is crucial for constituting sustainable development strategies. Assessment methods that exist so far usually only use an indicator system for making sustainable judgement. These indicators rarely reflect dynamic characteristics. However, sustainable development is influenced by changes in the social-economic system and in the eco-environmental system at different times. Besides the spatial character, sustainable development has a temporal character that can not be neglected; therefore the research system should also be dynamic. This paper focuses on this dynamic trait, so that the assessment results obtained provide more information for judgements in decision-making processes. Firstly the dynamic characteristics of sustainable development are analyzed, which point to a track of sustainable development that is an upward undulating curve. According to the dynamic character and the development rules of a social, economic and ecological system, a flexible assessment approach that is based on tendency analysis, restrictive conditions and a feedback system is then proposed for sustainable development.

Transmission dispatch and congestion management in open market systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Risheng

This thesis is located in the domain of electricity supply industry restructuring. It deals with emerging issues, whose understanding is essential to advancing knowledge of open access transmission theory and proceeds to develop approaches for solving the transmission dispatch and congestion management problem. An overview of current trends and experiences in utility restructuring and the main models for restructuring, as well as the classifications of system operators, is first presented. A fully unbundled competitive electricity market model, called the bilateral/multilateral trades model, is then developed. A survey of current research in transmission dispatch and congestion management is included with discussion of transmission capacity and ancillary services. A methodology for the power dispatch problem in a structure dominated by bilateral and multilateral transmission contracts is presented. Group structures are mathematically formulated and explored and three basic types of curtailment strategies proposed for use by market participants. A more complex model is then developed, which takes into account the co-existence of bilateral and multilateral contracts with pool type dynamic supplies and demands based on bids and market clearing prices. An integrated dispatch strategy to reconcile all three types of transactions (bilateral, multilateral and pool) is then developed. Prioritization of electricity transactions and related curtailment strategies are explored and a mechanism for coordination between market participants to achieve additional economic advantages is described. A theory of security based rescheduling is presented in order to investigate the security-related aspects of operation in an unbundled and deregulated system. The impact of post-contingency corrective capability on optimal rescheduling results has been identified and the advantage of incorporating post-contingency corrective rescheduling into the objective function demonstrated. Finally

Detectable signals of episodic risk effects on acute HIV transmission: Strategies for analyzing transmission systems using genetic data

PubMed Central

Alam, Shah Jamal; Zhang, Xinyu; Romero-Severson, Ethan Obie; Henry, Christopher; Zhong, Lin; Volz, Erik M.; Brenner, Bluma G.; Koopman, James S.

2013-01-01

Episodic high-risk sexual behavior is common and can have a profound effect on HIV transmission. In a model of HIV transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM), changing the frequency, duration and contact rates of high-risk episodes can take endemic prevalence from zero to 50% and more than double transmissions during acute HIV infection (AHI). Undirected test and treat could be inefficient in the presence of strong episodic risk effects. Partner services approaches that use a variety of control options will be likely to have better effects under these conditions, but the question remains: What data will reveal if a population is experiencing episodic risk effects? HIV sequence data from Montreal reveals genetic clusters whose size distribution stabilizes over time and reflects the size distribution of acute infection outbreaks (AIOs). Surveillance provides complementary behavioral data. In order to use both types of data efficiently, it is essential to examine aspects of models that affect both the episodic risk effects and the shape of transmission trees. As a demonstration, we use a deterministic compartmental model of episodic risk to explore the determinants of the fraction of transmissions during acute HIV infection (AHI) at the endemic equilibrium. We use a corresponding individual-based model to observe AIO size distributions and patterns of transmission within AIO. Episodic risk parameters determining whether AHI transmission trees had longer chains, more clustered transmissions from single individuals, or different mixes of these were explored. Encouragingly for parameter estimation, AIO size distributions reflected the frequency of transmissions from acute infection across divergent parameter sets. Our results show that episodic risk dynamics influence both the size and duration of acute infection outbreaks, thus providing a possible link between genetic cluster size distributions and episodic risk dynamics. PMID:23438430

Deciphering the physics and chemistry of perovskites with transmission electron microscopy.

PubMed

Polking, Mark J

2016-03-28

Perovskite oxides exhibit rich structural complexity and a broad range of functional properties, including ferroelectricity, ferromagnetism, and superconductivity. The development of aberration correction for the transmission electron microscope and concurrent progress in electron spectroscopy, electron holography, and other techniques has fueled rapid progress in the understanding of the physics and chemistry of these materials. New techniques based on the transmission electron microscope are first surveyed, and the applications of these techniques for the study of the structure, chemistry, electrostatics, and dynamics of perovskite oxides are then explored in detail, with a particular focus on ferroelectric materials.

Generic solar photovoltaic system dynamic simulation model specification

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ellis, Abraham; Behnke, Michael Robert; Elliott, Ryan Thomas

This document is intended to serve as a specification for generic solar photovoltaic (PV) system positive-sequence dynamic models to be implemented by software developers and approved by the WECC MVWG for use in bulk system dynamic simulations in accordance with NERC MOD standards. Two specific dynamic models are included in the scope of this document. The first, a Central Station PV System model, is intended to capture the most important dynamic characteristics of large scale (> 10 MW) PV systems with a central Point of Interconnection (POI) at the transmission level. The second, a Distributed PV System model, is intendedmore » to represent an aggregation of smaller, distribution-connected systems that comprise a portion of a composite load that might be modeled at a transmission load bus.« less

Development of a transmission-blocking malaria vaccine: progress, challenges, and the path forward.

PubMed

Nunes, Julia K; Woods, Colleen; Carter, Terrell; Raphael, Theresa; Morin, Merribeth J; Diallo, Diadier; Leboulleux, Didier; Jain, Sanjay; Loucq, Christian; Kaslow, David C; Birkett, Ashley J

2014-09-29

New interventions are needed to reduce morbidity and mortality associated with malaria, as well as to accelerate elimination and eventual eradication. Interventions that can break the cycle of parasite transmission, and prevent its reintroduction, will be of particular importance in achieving the eradication goal. In this regard, vaccines that interrupt malaria transmission (VIMT) have been highlighted as an important intervention, including transmission-blocking vaccines that prevent human-to-mosquito transmission by targeting the sexual, sporogonic, or mosquito stages of the parasite (SSM-VIMT). While the significant potential of this vaccine approach has been appreciated for decades, the development and licensure pathways for vaccines that target transmission and the incidence of infection, as opposed to prevention of clinical malaria disease, remain ill-defined. This article describes the progress made in critical areas since 2010, highlights key challenges that remain, and outlines important next steps to maximize the potential for SSM-VIMTs to contribute to the broader malaria elimination and eradication objectives. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Between-group transmission dynamics of the swallow bug, Oeciacus vicarius.

PubMed

Brown, Charles R; Brown, Mary Bomberger

2005-06-01

The parasitic cimicid swallow bug, Oeciacus vicarius, is the principal invertebrate vector for Buggy Creek virus (BCRV) and has also been associated with Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus. To help understand the spread of this vector, we experimentally measured the transmission of O. vicarius between groups (colonies) of its main host, the cliff swallow (Petrochelidonpyrrhonota), in the field. Transmission of bugs between colonies varied significantly with year, size of the colony, and week within the season. Bug immigration into sites tended to peak in mid-summer. Swallow nests in larger colonies had more consistent rates of bug introduction than did nests in small colonies, but within a colony a given nest's weekly immigrant-bug count varied widely across the season. Transmission of O. vicarius between host social groups follows broadly predictable seasonal patterns, but there is nevertheless temporal and spatial heterogeneity in bug transmission. By understanding how long-distance movement by this vector varies in time and space, we can better predict where and when BCRV epizootics may occur.

Modelling the transmission dynamics of Theileria annulata: model structure and validation for the Turkish context

PubMed Central

SUTTON, A. J.; KARAGENC, T.; BAKIRCI, S.; SARALI, H.; PEKEL, G.; MEDLEY, G. F.

2012-01-01

SUMMARY A mathematical model that describes the transmission dynamics of Theileria annulata is proposed that consists of 2 host components: the Hyalomma tick population and a compartmental model of T. annulata infection in the cattle population. The model was parameterized using data describing tick infestation and the infection status of cattle in Turkey from 2006 to 2008. The tick attachment rates are highly seasonal and because of the temporal separation of infectious and susceptible ticks virtually all ticks are infected by carrier cattle, so that annual peaks of disease in cattle do not impact on infection in the Hyalomma tick population. The impact of intervention measures that target the tick population both on the host and in the environment and their impact on the transmission of T. annulata were investigated. Interventions that have a limited ‘one-off’ impact and interventions that have a more permanent impact were both considered. The results from the model show the importance of targeting ticks during the period when they have left their first host as nymphs but have yet to feed on their second host. PMID:22309815

Disease transmission by cannibalism: rare event or common occurrence?

PubMed Central

Rudolf, Volker H.W; Antonovics, Janis

2007-01-01

Cannibalism has been documented as a possible disease transmission route in several species, including humans. However, the dynamics resulting from this type of disease transmission are not well understood. Using a theoretical model, we explore how cannibalism (i.e. killing and consumption of dead conspecifics) and intraspecific necrophagy (i.e. consumption of dead conspecifics) affect host–pathogen dynamics. We show that group cannibalism, i.e. shared consumption of victims, is a necessary condition for disease spread by cannibalism in the absence of alternative transmission modes. Thus, endemic diseases transmitted predominantly by cannibalism are likely to be rare, except in social organisms that share conspecific prey. These results are consistent with a review of the literature showing that diseases transmitted by cannibalism are infrequent in animals, even though both cannibalism and trophic transmission are very common. PMID:17327205

Research on cost control and management in high voltage transmission line construction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Xiaobin

2017-05-01

Enterprises. The cost control is of vital importance to the construction enterprises. It is the key to the profitability of the transmission line project, which is related to the survival and development of the electric power construction enterprises. Due to the long construction line, complex and changeable construction terrain as well as large construction costs of transmission line, it is difficult for us to take accurate and effective cost control on the project implementation of entire transmission line. Therefore, the cost control of transmission line project is a complicated and arduous task. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the cost control scheme of transmission line project by a more scientific and efficient way. Based on the characteristics of the construction project of the transmission line project, this paper analyzes the construction cost structure of the transmission line project and the current cost control problem of the transmission line project, and demonstrates the necessity and feasibility of studying the cost control scheme of the transmission line project more accurately. In this way, the dynamic cycle cost control process including plan, implementation, feedback, correction, modification and re-implement is achieved to realize the accurate and effective cost control of entire electric power transmission line project.

Bordetella pertussis transmission.

PubMed

Trainor, Elizabeth A; Nicholson, Tracy L; Merkel, Tod J

2015-11-01

Bordetella pertussis and B. bronchiseptica are Gram-negative bacterial respiratory pathogens. Bordetella pertussis is the causative agent of whooping cough and is considered a human-adapted variant of B. bronchiseptica. Bordetella pertussis and B. bronchiseptica share mechanisms of pathogenesis and are genetically closely related. However, despite the close genetic relatedness, these Bordetella species differ in several classic fundamental aspects of bacterial pathogens such as host range, pathologies and persistence. The development of the baboon model for the study of B. pertussis transmission, along with the development of the swine and mouse model for the study of B. bronchiseptica, has enabled the investigation of different aspects of transmission including the route, attack rate, role of bacterial and host factors, and the impact of vaccination on transmission. This review will focus on B. pertussis transmission and how animal models of B. pertussis transmission and transmission models using the closely related B. bronchiseptica have increased our understanding of B. pertussis transmission. © FEMS 2015. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Well-posed and stable transmission problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nordström, Jan; Linders, Viktor

2018-07-01

We introduce the notion of a transmission problem to describe a general class of problems where different dynamics are coupled in time. Well-posedness and stability are analysed for continuous and discrete problems using both strong and weak formulations, and a general transmission condition is obtained. The theory is applied to the coupling of fluid-acoustic models, multi-grid implementations, adaptive mesh refinements, multi-block formulations and numerical filtering.

Unraveling the Transmission Ecology of Polio.

PubMed

Martinez-Bakker, Micaela; King, Aaron A; Rohani, Pejman

2015-06-01

Sustained and coordinated vaccination efforts have brought polio eradication within reach. Anticipating the eradication of wild poliovirus (WPV) and the subsequent challenges in preventing its re-emergence, we look to the past to identify why polio rose to epidemic levels in the mid-20th century, and how WPV persisted over large geographic scales. We analyzed an extensive epidemiological dataset, spanning the 1930s to the 1950s and spatially replicated across each state in the United States, to glean insight into the drivers of polio's historical expansion and the ecological mode of its persistence prior to vaccine introduction. We document a latitudinal gradient in polio's seasonality. Additionally, we fitted and validated mechanistic transmission models to data from each US state independently. The fitted models revealed that: (1) polio persistence was the product of a dynamic mosaic of source and sink populations; (2) geographic heterogeneity of seasonal transmission conditions account for the latitudinal structure of polio epidemics; (3) contrary to the prevailing "disease of development" hypothesis, our analyses demonstrate that polio's historical expansion was straightforwardly explained by demographic trends rather than improvements in sanitation and hygiene; and (4) the absence of clinical disease is not a reliable indicator of polio transmission, because widespread polio transmission was likely in the multiyear absence of clinical disease. As the world edges closer to global polio eradication and continues the strategic withdrawal of the Oral Polio Vaccine (OPV), the regular identification of, and rapid response to, these silent chains of transmission is of the utmost importance.

Development of a Converter-Based Transmission Line Emulator with Three-Phase Short-Circuit Fault Emulation Capability

DOE PAGES

Zhang, Shuoting; Liu, Bo; Zheng, Sheng; ...

2018-01-01

A transmission line emulator has been developed to flexibly represent interconnected ac lines under normal operating conditions in a voltage source converter (VSC)-based power system emulation platform. As the most serious short-circuit fault condition, the three-phase short-circuit fault emulation is essential for power system studies. Here, this paper proposes a model to realize a three-phase short-circuit fault emulation at different locations along a single transmission line or one of several parallel-connected transmission lines. At the same time, a combination method is proposed to eliminate the undesired transients caused by the current reference step changes while switching between the fault statemore » and the normal state. Experiment results verify the developed transmission line three-phase short-circuit fault emulation capability.« less

Development of a Converter-Based Transmission Line Emulator with Three-Phase Short-Circuit Fault Emulation Capability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Shuoting; Liu, Bo; Zheng, Sheng

A transmission line emulator has been developed to flexibly represent interconnected ac lines under normal operating conditions in a voltage source converter (VSC)-based power system emulation platform. As the most serious short-circuit fault condition, the three-phase short-circuit fault emulation is essential for power system studies. Here, this paper proposes a model to realize a three-phase short-circuit fault emulation at different locations along a single transmission line or one of several parallel-connected transmission lines. At the same time, a combination method is proposed to eliminate the undesired transients caused by the current reference step changes while switching between the fault statemore » and the normal state. Experiment results verify the developed transmission line three-phase short-circuit fault emulation capability.« less

The effect of dietary antioxidant supplementation in a vertebrate host on the infection dynamics and transmission of avian malaria to the vector.

PubMed

Delhaye, Jessica; Glaizot, Olivier; Christe, Philippe

2018-05-09

Host susceptibility to parasites is likely to be influenced by intrinsic factors, such as host oxidative status determined by the balance between pro-oxidant production and antioxidant defences. As a result, host oxidative status acts as an environmental factor for parasites and may constrain parasite development. We evaluated the role of host oxidative status on infection dynamics of an avian malarial parasite by providing canaries (Serinus canaria) with an antioxidant supplementation composed of vitamin E (a lipophilic antioxidant) and olive oil, a source of monounsaturated fatty acids. Another group received a standard, non-supplemented food. Half of the birds in each group where then infected with the haemosporidian parasite, Plasmodium relictum. We monitored the parasitaemia, haematocrit level, and red cell membrane resistance, as well as the transmission success of the parasite to its mosquito vector, Culex pipiens. During the acute phase, the negative effect of the infection was more severe in the supplemented group, as shown by a lower haematocrit level. Parasitaemia was lower in the supplemented group during the chronic phase only. Mosquitoes fed on supplemented hosts were more often infected than mosquitoes fed on the control group. These results suggest that dietary antioxidant supplementation conferred protection against Plasmodium in the long term, at the expense of a short-term negative effect. Malaria parasites may take advantage of antioxidants, as shown by the increased transmission rate in the supplemented group. Overall, our results suggest an important role of oxidative status in infection outcome and parasite transmission.

Dynamic Transmission Economic Evaluation of Infectious Disease Interventions in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Systematic Literature Review.

PubMed

Drake, Tom L; Devine, Angela; Yeung, Shunmay; Day, Nicholas P J; White, Lisa J; Lubell, Yoel

2016-02-01

Economic evaluation using dynamic transmission models is important for capturing the indirect effects of infectious disease interventions. We examine the use of these methods in low- and middle-income countries, where infectious diseases constitute a major burden. This review is comprised of two parts: (1) a summary of dynamic transmission economic evaluations across all disease areas published between 2011 and mid-2014 and (2) an in-depth review of mosquito-borne disease studies focusing on health economic methods and reporting. Studies were identified through a systematic search of the MEDLINE database and supplemented by reference list screening. Fifty-seven studies were eligible for inclusion in the all-disease review. The most common subject disease was HIV/AIDS, followed by malaria. A diverse range of modelling methods, outcome metrics and sensitivity analyses were used, indicating little standardisation. Seventeen studies were included in the mosquito-borne disease review. With notable exceptions, most studies did not employ economic evaluation methods beyond calculating a cost-effectiveness ratio or net benefit. Many did not adhere to health care economic evaluations reporting guidelines, particularly with respect to full model reporting and uncertainty analysis. We present a summary of the state-of-the-art and offer recommendations for improved implementation and reporting of health economic methods in this crossover discipline. © 2016 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Nonlinear dynamics analysis of the spur gear system for railway locomotive

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Junguo; He, Guangyue; Zhang, Jie; Zhao, Yongxiang; Yao, Yuan

2017-02-01

Considering the factors such as the nonlinearity backlash, static transmission error and time-varying meshing stiffness, a three-degree-of-freedom torsional vibration model of spur gear transmission system for a typical locomotive is developed, in which the wheel/rail adhesion torque is considered as uncertain but bounded parameter. Meantime, the Ishikawa method is used for analysis and calculation of the time-varying mesh stiffness of the gear pair in meshing process. With the help of bifurcation diagrams, phase plane diagrams, Poincaré maps, time domain response diagrams and amplitude-frequency spectrums, the effects of the pinion speed and stiffness on the dynamic behavior of gear transmission system for locomotive are investigated in detail by using the numerical integration method. Numerical examples reveal various types of nonlinear phenomena and dynamic evolution mechanism involving one-period responses, multi-periodic responses, bifurcation and chaotic responses. Some research results present useful information to dynamic design and vibration control of the gear transmission system for railway locomotive.

A wearable wireless ECG monitoring system with dynamic transmission power control for long-term homecare.

PubMed

Wang, Yishan; Doleschel, Sammy; Wunderlich, Ralf; Heinen, Stefan

2015-03-01

This paper presents a wearable wireless ECG monitoring system based on novel 3-Lead electrode placements for long-term homecare. The experiment for novel 3-Lead electrode placements is carried out, and the results show that the distance between limb electrodes can be significantly reduced. Based on the new electrode position, a small size sensor node, which is powered by a rechargeable battery, is designed to detect, amplify, filter and transmit the ECG signals. The coordinator receives the data and sends it to PC. Finally the signals are displayed on the GUI. In order to control the power consumption of sensor node, a dynamic power adjustment method is applied to automatically adjust the transmission power of the sensor node according to the received signal strength indicator (RSSI), which is related to the distance and obstacle between sensor node and coordinator. The system is evaluated when the user, who wears the sensor, is walking and running. A promising performance is achieved even under body motion. The power consumption can be significantly reduced with this dynamic power adjustment method.

The Complex Relationship between Weather and Dengue Virus Transmission in Thailand

PubMed Central

Campbell, Karen M.; Lin, C. D.; Iamsirithaworn, Sopon; Scott, Thomas W.

2013-01-01

Using a novel analytical approach, weather dynamics and seasonal dengue virus transmission cycles were profiled for each Thailand province, 1983–2001, using monthly assessments of cases, temperature, humidity, and rainfall. We observed systematic differences in the structure of seasonal transmission cycles of different magnitude, the role of weather in regulating seasonal cycles, necessary versus optimal transmission “weather-space,” basis of large epidemics, and predictive indicators that estimate risk. Larger epidemics begin earlier, develop faster, and are predicted at Onset change-point when case counts are low. Temperature defines a viable range for transmission; humidity amplifies the potential within that range. This duality is central to transmission. Eighty percent of 1.2 million severe dengue cases occurred when mean temperature was 27–29.5°C and mean humidity was > 75%. Interventions are most effective when applied early. Most cases occur near Peak, yet small reductions at Onset can substantially reduce epidemic magnitude. Monitoring the Quiet-Phase is fundamental in effectively targeting interventions pre-emptively. PMID:23958906

Transmission Heterogeneity and Autoinoculation in a Multisite Infection Model of HPV

PubMed Central

Brouwer, Andrew F.; Meza, Rafael; Eisenberg, Marisa C.

2015-01-01

The human papillomavirus (HPV) is sexually transmitted and can infect oral, genital, and anal sites in the human epithelium. Here, we develop a multisite transmission model that includes autoinoculation, to study HPV and other multisite diseases. Under a homogeneous-contacts assumption, we analyze the basic reproduction number R0, as well as type and target reproduction numbers, for a two-site model. In particular, we find that R0 occupies a space between taking the maximum of next generation matrix terms for same site transmission and taking the geometric average of cross-site transmission terms in such a way that heterogeneity in the same-site transmission rates increases R0 while heterogeneity in the cross-site transmission decreases it. Additionally, autoinoculation adds considerable complexity to the form of R0. We extend this analysis to a heterosexual population, which additionally yields dynamics analogous to those of vector–host models. We also examine how these issues of heterogeneity may affect disease control, using type and target reproduction numbers. PMID:26518265

Towards clinical development of a Pfs48/45-based transmission blocking malaria vaccine.

PubMed

Theisen, Michael; Jore, Matthijs M; Sauerwein, Robert

2017-04-01

Malaria is a devastating vector-borne disease caused by the Plasmodium parasite, resulting in almost 0.5 million casualties per year. The parasite has a complex life-cycle that includes asexual replication in human red blood cells, causing symptomatic malaria, and sexual stages which are essential for the transmission to the mosquito vector. A vaccine targeting the sexual stages of the parasite and thus blocking transmission will be instrumental for the eradication of malaria. One of the leading transmission blocking vaccine candidates is the sexual stage antigen Pfs48/45. Areas covered: PubMed was searched to review the progress and future prospects for clinical development of a Pfs48/45-based subunit vaccine. We will focus on biological function, naturally acquired immunity, functional activity of specific antibodies, sequence diversity, production of recombinant protein and preclinical studies. Expert commentary: Pfs48/45 is one of the lead-candidates for a transmission blocking vaccine and should be further explored in clinical trials.

Effect of lactation therapy on Staphylococcus aureus transmission dynamics in two commercial dairy herds

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Treatment of subclinical mastitis during lactation can have both direct (individual animal level) and indirect (population level) effects. With a few exceptions, prior research has focused on evaluating the direct effects of mastitis treatment, and to date no controlled field trials have been conducted to test whether beneficial indirect effects of lactation treatment strategies targeting subclinical mastitis can be demonstrated on commercial dairy farms. Furthermore, there is limited knowledge on the impact of such interventions on the population dynamics of specific bacterial strains. The purpose of this study was to test the hypothesis that lactation therapy targeting S. aureus subclinical intramammary infection reduces transmission of S. aureus strains within dairy herds. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) and multilocus sequence typing (MLST) were used to determine strain specific infection dynamics in treated and control groups in a split herd trial conducted on 2 commercial dairy farms. Results The direct effect of 8 days intramammary lactation therapy with pirlimycin hydrochloride was demonstrated by an increased proportion of cure and a reduction in duration of infection in quarters receiving treatment compared to untreated controls. The indirect effect of lactation therapy was demonstrated by reduction of new S. aureus intramammary infections (IMI) caused by the dominant strain type in both herds. Strain typing of representative isolates taken over the duration of all IMI, including pre- and post-treatment isolates, provided more precise estimates of new infection, cure, and re-infection rates. New S. aureus infections in recovered susceptible quarters and the emergence of a new strain type in one herd influenced incidence measures. Conclusion In addition to demonstrating positive direct effects of lactation therapy, this study provides evidence that treatment of subclinical S. aureus mastitis during lactation can have indirect effects

Effect of lactation therapy on Staphylococcus aureus transmission dynamics in two commercial dairy herds.

PubMed

Barlow, John W; Zadoks, Ruth N; Schukken, Ynte H

2013-02-11

Treatment of subclinical mastitis during lactation can have both direct (individual animal level) and indirect (population level) effects. With a few exceptions, prior research has focused on evaluating the direct effects of mastitis treatment, and to date no controlled field trials have been conducted to test whether beneficial indirect effects of lactation treatment strategies targeting subclinical mastitis can be demonstrated on commercial dairy farms. Furthermore, there is limited knowledge on the impact of such interventions on the population dynamics of specific bacterial strains. The purpose of this study was to test the hypothesis that lactation therapy targeting S. aureus subclinical intramammary infection reduces transmission of S. aureus strains within dairy herds. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) and multilocus sequence typing (MLST) were used to determine strain specific infection dynamics in treated and control groups in a split herd trial conducted on 2 commercial dairy farms. The direct effect of 8 days intramammary lactation therapy with pirlimycin hydrochloride was demonstrated by an increased proportion of cure and a reduction in duration of infection in quarters receiving treatment compared to untreated controls. The indirect effect of lactation therapy was demonstrated by reduction of new S. aureus intramammary infections (IMI) caused by the dominant strain type in both herds. Strain typing of representative isolates taken over the duration of all IMI, including pre- and post-treatment isolates, provided more precise estimates of new infection, cure, and re-infection rates. New S. aureus infections in recovered susceptible quarters and the emergence of a new strain type in one herd influenced incidence measures. In addition to demonstrating positive direct effects of lactation therapy, this study provides evidence that treatment of subclinical S. aureus mastitis during lactation can have indirect effects including preventing new IMI and

AUTOMOTIVE DIESEL MAINTENANCE 2. UNIT XXII, MICHIGAN/CLARK TRANSMISSION--CONVERTER/TRANSMISSION.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Minnesota State Dept. of Education, St. Paul. Div. of Vocational and Technical Education.

THIS MODULE OF A 25-MODULE COURSE IS DESIGNED TO DEVELOP A DETAILED UNDERSTANDING OF A SPECIFIC POWER CONVERTER AND TRANSMISSION USED ON DIESEL POWERED EQUIPMENT. TOPICS ARE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE CONVERTER, CONVERTER ASSEMBLY AND INSTALLATION, TRANSMISSION FUNCTION, AND TRANSMISSION SHIFTING. THE MODULE CONSISTS OF A SELF-INSTRUCTIONAL PROGRAMED…

Towards interruption of schistosomiasis transmission in sub-Saharan Africa: developing an appropriate environmental surveillance framework to guide and to support 'end game' interventions.

PubMed

Stothard, J Russell; Campbell, Suzy J; Osei-Atweneboana, Mike Y; Durant, Timothy; Stanton, Michelle C; Biritwum, Nana-Kwadwo; Rollinson, David; Ombede, Dieudonné R Eloundou; Tchuem-Tchuenté, Louis-Albert

2017-01-14

Schistosomiasis is a waterborne parasitic disease in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly common in rural populations living in impoverished conditions. With the scale-up of preventive chemotherapy, national campaigns will transition from morbidity- to transmission-focused interventions thus formal investigation of actual or expected declines in environmental transmission is needed as 'end game' scenarios arise. Surprisingly, there are no international or national guidelines to do so in sub-Saharan Africa. Our article therefore provides an introduction to key practicalities and pitfalls in the development of an appropriate environmental surveillance framework. In this context, we discuss how strategies need to be adapted and tailored to the local level to better guide and support future interventions through this transition. As detection of egg-patent infection in people becomes rare, careful sampling of schistosome larvae in freshwater and in aquatic snails with robust species-specific DNA assays will be required. Appropriate metrics, derived from observed prevalence(s) as compared with predetermined thresholds, could each provide a clearer insight into contamination- and exposure-related dynamics. Application could be twofold, first to certify areas currently free from schistosomiasis transmission or second to red-flag recalcitrant locations where extra effort or alternative interventions are needed.

Spur, helical, and spiral bevel transmission life modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Savage, Michael; Rubadeux, Kelly L.; Coe, Harold H.; Coy, John J.

1994-01-01

A computer program, TLIFE, which estimates the life, dynamic capacity, and reliability of aircraft transmissions, is presented. The program enables comparisons of transmission service life at the design stage for optimization. A variety of transmissions may be analyzed including: spur, helical, and spiral bevel reductions as well as series combinations of these reductions. The basic spur and helical reductions include: single mesh, compound, and parallel path plus revert star and planetary gear trains. A variety of straddle and overhung bearing configurations on the gear shafts are possible as is the use of a ring gear for the output. The spiral bevel reductions include single and dual input drives with arbitrary shaft angles. The program is written in FORTRAN 77 and has been executed both in the personal computer DOS environment and on UNIX workstations. The analysis may be performed in either the SI metric or the English inch system of units. The reliability and life analysis is based on the two-parameter Weibull distribution lives of the component gears and bearings. The program output file describes the overall transmission and each constituent transmission, its components, and their locations, capacities, and loads. Primary output is the dynamic capacity and 90-percent reliability and mean lives of the unit transmissions and the overall system which can be used to estimate service overhaul frequency requirements. Two examples are presented to illustrate the information available for single element and series transmissions.

Transmissible cancers in an evolutionary context.

PubMed

Ujvari, Beata; Papenfuss, Anthony T; Belov, Katherine

2016-07-01

Cancer is an evolutionary and ecological process in which complex interactions between tumour cells and their environment share many similarities with organismal evolution. Tumour cells with highest adaptive potential have a selective advantage over less fit cells. Naturally occurring transmissible cancers provide an ideal model system for investigating the evolutionary arms race between cancer cells and their surrounding micro-environment and macro-environment. However, the evolutionary landscapes in which contagious cancers reside have not been subjected to comprehensive investigation. Here, we provide a multifocal analysis of transmissible tumour progression and discuss the selection forces that shape it. We demonstrate that transmissible cancers adapt to both their micro-environment and macro-environment, and evolutionary theories applied to organisms are also relevant to these unique diseases. The three naturally occurring transmissible cancers, canine transmissible venereal tumour (CTVT) and Tasmanian devil facial tumour disease (DFTD) and the recently discovered clam leukaemia, exhibit different evolutionary phases: (i) CTVT, the oldest naturally occurring cell line is remarkably stable; (ii) DFTD exhibits the signs of stepwise cancer evolution; and (iii) clam leukaemia shows genetic instability. While all three contagious cancers carry the signature of ongoing and fairly recent adaptations to selective forces, CTVT appears to have reached an evolutionary stalemate with its host, while DFTD and the clam leukaemia appear to be still at a more dynamic phase of their evolution. Parallel investigation of contagious cancer genomes and transcriptomes and of their micro-environment and macro-environment could shed light on the selective forces shaping tumour development at different time points: during the progressive phase and at the endpoint. A greater understanding of transmissible cancers from an evolutionary ecology perspective will provide novel avenues for

NASA transmission research and its probable effects on helicopter transmission design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaretsky, E. V.; Coy, J. J.; Townsend, D. P.

1983-01-01

Transmissions studied for application to helicopters in addition to the more conventional geared transmissions include hybrid (traction/gear), bearingless planetary, and split torque transmissions. Research is being performed to establish the validity of analysis and computer codes developed to predict the performance, efficiency, life, and reliability of these transmissions. Results of this research should provide the transmission designer with analytical tools to design for minimum weight and noise with maximum life and efficiency. In addition, the advantages and limitations of drive systems as well as the more conventional systems will be defined.

NASA transmission research and its probable effects on helicopter transmission design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaretsky, E. V.; Coy, J. J.; Townsend, D. P.

1984-01-01

Transmissions studied for application to helicopters in addition to the more conventional geared transmissions include hybrid (traction/gear), bearingless planetary, and split torque transmissions. Research is being performed to establish the validity of analysis and computer codes developed to predict the performance, efficiency, life, and reliability of these transmissions. Results of this research should provide the transmission designer with analytical tools to design for minimum weight and noise with maximum life and efficiency. In addition, the advantages and limitations of drive systems as well as the more conventional systems will be defined.

Assessing the role of landscape connectivity on Opisthorchis viverrini transmission dynamics.

PubMed

Wang, Yi-Chen; Yuen, Roy; Feng, Chen-Chieh; Sithithaworn, Paiboon; Kim, Ick-Hoi

2017-08-01

Opisthorchis viverrini (Ov) is one of the most important human parasitic diseases in Southeast Asia. Although the concept of connectivity is widely used to comprehend disease dispersal, knowledge of the influences of landscape connectivity on Ov transmission is still rudimentary. This study aimed to investigate the role of landscape connectivity in Ov transmission between the human and the first intermediate snail hosts. Fieldwork was conducted in three villages respectively in Kamalasai District, Kalasin Province, Phu Wiang District, Khon Kaen Province, and Nong Saeng District, Udon Thani Province. Bithynia snails were collected to examine parasitic infections, water samples were analyzed for fecal contamination, and locations of septic tanks and connections between habitat patches with observable water movement were surveyed. Euclidean distance, topological link and distance, and graph measures were employed to quantify the connectivity between human and snail habitats. The findings showed that snail patches with higher fecal contents were generally located nearer to septic tanks. The statistically significant results for the topological link and distance measures highlighted the importance of water in functionally facilitating Ov transmission. Graph measures revealed differences in landscape connectivity across the sites. The site with the largest landscape component size and the most mutually connected snail patches coincided with the presence of Ov parasite, reinforcing its higher risk for human to snail transmission. The site with the dissected landscape structure potentially limited the transmission. This study underscored the potential effect of landscape connectivity on Ov transmission, contributing to the understanding of the spatial variation of Ov infection risk. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Jobs and Economic Development from New Transmission and Generation in Wyoming Fact Sheet

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

2011-05-10

Wyoming is a significant energy exporter, producing nearly 40% of the nation's coal and 10% of the nation's natural gas. However, opportunities to add new energy exports in the form of power generation are limited by insufficient transmission capacity. This fact sheet summarizes results from a recent analysis conducted by NREL for the Wyoming Infrastructure Authority that estimates jobs and economic development activity that could occur in Wyoming should the market support new investments in power generation and transmission in the state.

Jobs and Economic Development from New Transmission and Generation in Wyoming (Fact Sheet)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

2011-05-01

Wyoming is a significant energy exporter, producing nearly 40% of the nation's coal and 10% of the nation's natural gas. However, opportunities to add new energy exports in the form of power generation are limited by insufficient transmission capacity. This fact sheet summarizes results from a recent analysis conducted by NREL for the Wyoming Infrastructure Authority (WIA) that estimates jobs and economic development activity that could occur in Wyoming should the market support new investments in power generation and transmission in the state.

Transmission dynamics and economics of rabies control in dogs and humans in an African city.

PubMed

Zinsstag, J; Dürr, S; Penny, M A; Mindekem, R; Roth, F; Menendez Gonzalez, S; Naissengar, S; Hattendorf, J

2009-09-01

Human rabies in developing countries can be prevented through interventions directed at dogs. Potential cost-savings for the public health sector of interventions aimed at animal-host reservoirs should be assessed. Available deterministic models of rabies transmission between dogs were extended to include dog-to-human rabies transmission. Model parameters were fitted to routine weekly rabid-dog and exposed-human cases reported in N'Djaména, the capital of Chad. The estimated transmission rates between dogs (beta(d)) were 0.0807 km2/(dogs x week) and between dogs and humans (beta(dh)) 0.0002 km2/(dogs x week). The effective reproductive ratio (R(e)) at the onset of our observations was estimated at 1.01, indicating low-level endemic stability of rabies transmission. Human rabies incidence depended critically on dog-related transmission parameters. We simulated the effects of mass dog vaccination and the culling of a percentage of the dog population on human rabies incidence. A single parenteral dog rabies-mass vaccination campaign achieving a coverage of least 70% appears to be sufficient to interrupt transmission of rabies to humans for at least 6 years. The cost-effectiveness of mass dog vaccination was compared to postexposure prophylaxis (PEP), which is the current practice in Chad. PEP does not reduce future human exposure. Its cost-effectiveness is estimated at US $46 per disability adjusted life-years averted. Cost-effectiveness for PEP, together with a dog-vaccination campaign, breaks even with cost-effectiveness of PEP alone after almost 5 years. Beyond a time-frame of 7 years, it appears to be more cost-effective to combine parenteral dog-vaccination campaigns with human PEP compared to human PEP alone.

Practical aspects of monochromators developed for transmission electron microscopy

PubMed Central

Kimoto, Koji

2014-01-01

A few practical aspects of monochromators recently developed for transmission electron microscopy are briefly reviewed. The basic structures and properties of four monochromators, a single Wien filter monochromator, a double Wien filter monochromator, an omega-shaped electrostatic monochromator and an alpha-shaped magnetic monochromator, are outlined. The advantages and side effects of these monochromators in spectroscopy and imaging are pointed out. A few properties of the monochromators in imaging, such as spatial or angular chromaticity, are also discussed. PMID:25125333

High Dynamic Range Pixel Array Detector for Scanning Transmission Electron Microscopy.

PubMed

Tate, Mark W; Purohit, Prafull; Chamberlain, Darol; Nguyen, Kayla X; Hovden, Robert; Chang, Celesta S; Deb, Pratiti; Turgut, Emrah; Heron, John T; Schlom, Darrell G; Ralph, Daniel C; Fuchs, Gregory D; Shanks, Katherine S; Philipp, Hugh T; Muller, David A; Gruner, Sol M

2016-02-01

We describe a hybrid pixel array detector (electron microscope pixel array detector, or EMPAD) adapted for use in electron microscope applications, especially as a universal detector for scanning transmission electron microscopy. The 128×128 pixel detector consists of a 500 µm thick silicon diode array bump-bonded pixel-by-pixel to an application-specific integrated circuit. The in-pixel circuitry provides a 1,000,000:1 dynamic range within a single frame, allowing the direct electron beam to be imaged while still maintaining single electron sensitivity. A 1.1 kHz framing rate enables rapid data collection and minimizes sample drift distortions while scanning. By capturing the entire unsaturated diffraction pattern in scanning mode, one can simultaneously capture bright field, dark field, and phase contrast information, as well as being able to analyze the full scattering distribution, allowing true center of mass imaging. The scattering is recorded on an absolute scale, so that information such as local sample thickness can be directly determined. This paper describes the detector architecture, data acquisition system, and preliminary results from experiments with 80-200 keV electron beams.

Transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome in dynamical small-world networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masuda, Naoki; Konno, Norio; Aihara, Kazuyuki

2004-03-01

The outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is still threatening the world because of a possible resurgence. In the current situation that effective medical treatments such as antiviral drugs are not discovered yet, dynamical features of the epidemics should be clarified for establishing strategies for tracing, quarantine, isolation, and regulating social behavior of the public at appropriate costs. Here we propose a network model for SARS epidemics and discuss why superspreaders emerged and why SARS spread especially in hospitals, which were key factors of the recent outbreak. We suggest that superspreaders are biologically contagious patients, and they may amplify the spreads by going to potentially contagious places such as hospitals. To avoid mass transmission in hospitals, it may be a good measure to treat suspected cases without hospitalizing them. Finally, we indicate that SARS probably propagates in small-world networks associated with human contacts and that the biological nature of individuals and social group properties are factors more important than the heterogeneous rates of social contacts among individuals. This is in marked contrast with epidemics of sexually transmitted diseases or computer viruses to which scale-free network models often apply.

Simulation model of an electrohydraulic-actuated double-clutch transmission vehicle: modelling and system design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schoeftner, J.; Ebner, W.

2017-12-01

Automated and manual transmissions are the main link between engine and powertrain. The technical term when the transmission provides the desired torque during all possible driving conditions is denoted as powertrain matching. Recent developments in the last years show that double-clutch-transmissions (DCTs) are a reasonable compromise in terms of production costs, shifting quality, drivability and fuel efficiency. They have several advantages compared to other automatic transmissions (AT). Most DCTs nowadays consist of a hydraulic actuation control unit, which controls the clutches of the gearbox in order to induce a desired drivetrain torque into the driveline. The main functions of hydraulic systems are manifold: they initiate gear shifts, they provide sufficient oil for lubrication and they control the shift quality by suitably providing a desired oil flow or pressure for the clutch actuation. In this paper, a mathematical model of a passenger car equipped with a DCT is presented. The objective of this contribution is to get an increased understanding for the dynamics of the hydraulic circuit and its coupling to the vehicle drivetrain. The simulation model consists of a hydraulic and a mechanical domain: the hydraulic actuation circuit is described by nonlinear differential equations and includes the dynamics of the line pressure and the proportional valve, as well as the influence of the pressure reducing valve, pipe resistances and accumulator dynamics. The drivetrain with its gear ratios, moments of inertia, torsional stiffness of the rotating shafts and a simple longitudinal vehicle model represent the mechanical domain. The link between hydraulic and mechanical domain is given by the clutch, which combines hydraulic equations and Newton's laws. The presented mathematical model may not only be used as a simulation model for developing the transmission control software, it may also serve as a virtual layout for the design process phase. At the end of this

The evolution of plant virus transmission pathways.

PubMed

Hamelin, Frédéric M; Allen, Linda J S; Prendeville, Holly R; Hajimorad, M Reza; Jeger, Michael J

2016-05-07

The evolution of plant virus transmission pathways is studied through transmission via seed, pollen, or a vector. We address the questions: under what circumstances does vector transmission make pollen transmission redundant? Can evolution lead to the coexistence of multiple virus transmission pathways? We restrict the analysis to an annual plant population in which reproduction through seed is obligatory. A semi-discrete model with pollen, seed, and vector transmission is formulated to investigate these questions. We assume vector and pollen transmission rates are frequency-dependent and density-dependent, respectively. An ecological stability analysis is performed for the semi-discrete model and used to inform an evolutionary study of trade-offs between pollen and seed versus vector transmission. Evolutionary dynamics critically depend on the shape of the trade-off functions. Assuming a trade-off between pollen and vector transmission, evolution either leads to an evolutionarily stable mix of pollen and vector transmission (concave trade-off) or there is evolutionary bi-stability (convex trade-off); the presence of pollen transmission may prevent evolution of vector transmission. Considering a trade-off between seed and vector transmission, evolutionary branching and the subsequent coexistence of pollen-borne and vector-borne strains is possible. This study contributes to the theory behind the diversity of plant-virus transmission patterns observed in nature. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Transmission of whole body vibration to the lower body in static and dynamic half-squat exercises.

PubMed

Munera, Marcela; Bertucci, William; Duc, Sebastien; Chiementin, Xavier

2016-11-01

Whole body vibration (WBV) is used as a training method but its physical risk is not yet clear. Hence, the aim of this study is to assess the exposure to WBV by a measure of acceleration at the lower limb under dynamic and static postural conditions. The hypothesis of this paper is that this assessment is influenced by the frequency, position, and movement of the body. Fifteen healthy males are exposed to vertical sinusoidal vibration at different frequencies (20-60 Hz), while adopting three different static postures (knee extension angle: 180°, 120° and 90°) or performing a dynamic half-squat exercise. Accelerations at input source and at three joints of the lower limb (ankle, knee, and hip) are measured using skin-mounted accelerometers. Acceleration values (g) in static conditions show a decrease in the vibrational dose when it is measured at a more proximal location in the lower extremity. The results of the performed statistical test show statistically significant differences (p < 0.05) in the transmissibility values caused by the frequency, the position, and to the presence of the movement and its direction at the different conditions. The results confirm the initial hypothesis and justify the importance of a vibration assessment in dynamic conditions.

The Population Biology and Transmission Dynamics of Loa loa.

PubMed

Whittaker, Charles; Walker, Martin; Pion, Sébastien D S; Chesnais, Cédric B; Boussinesq, Michel; Basáñez, María-Gloria

2018-04-01

Endemic to Central Africa, loiasis - or African eye worm (caused by the filarial nematode Loa loa) - affects more than 10 million people. Despite causing ocular and systemic symptoms, it has typically been considered a benign condition, only of public health relevance because it impedes mass drug administration-based interventions against onchocerciasis and lymphatic filariasis in co-endemic areas. Recent research has challenged this conception, demonstrating excess mortality associated with high levels of infection, implying that loiasis warrants attention as an intrinsic public health problem. This review summarises available information on the key parasitological, entomological, and epidemiological characteristics of the infection and argues for the mobilisation of resources to control the disease, and the development of a mathematical transmission model to guide deployment of interventions. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Multi-Speed Transmission For Commercial Delivery Medium Duty PEDVs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chavdar, Bulent

Successful completion of the proposed project will set a course for improving quality of life by overcoming key challenges in the gearbox for commercial-delivery, medium-duty, plug-in electric drive vehicles: It will reduce US dependency on foreign oil through the use of electric driven propulsion instead of fuel driven. It will reduce health risks by replacing tailpipe emissions in densely populated city centers. Finally, it will improve the performance-cost basis to meet or exceed the expectations of the targeted medium duty vehicle fleet owners and the independent customers. The proposed multi-speed transmission will narrow motor operation to the peak efficiency region,more » thereby increasing the electric powertrain efficiency to help close the range gap. Further, it will enhance customer satisfaction by improving vehicle acceleration, top speed and gradeability over the baseline. The project was conducted in three budget periods: In BP1: Technology Development, High-level vehicle powertrain models were used to optimize candidate transmission architectures and ratios along with a variety of traction motor characteristics for concept selection. The detailed driveline designs and component dynamics were investigated to meet medium-duty EV requirements; In BP2: Technology Development and Prototype Demonstration, The modeling and simulations with multi-speed transmissions were extended to other MD and HD EV platforms. Clean sheet design of a compact, lightweight, flexible, and modular, four-speed transmission was completed. Development of novel shifting and controls strategies were started and procurement of the prototype transmission and the controller hardware was begun; In BP3: Technology Integration, Testing, and Demonstration, Prototyping the four-speed automated mechanical transmission was completed. The transmission controls system and software development and preliminary gearbox dyno tests were done at Eaton. ORNL conducted integrated powertrain HIL

Distributed dynamic strain measurement using long-gauge FBG and DTR3 interrogator based on delayed transmission/reflection ratiometric reflectometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishiyama, M.; Igawa, H.; Kasai, T.; Watanabe, N.

2013-09-01

In this paper, we reveal characteristics of static and dynamic distributed strain measurement using a long-gauge fiber Bragg grating (FBG) and a Delayed Transmission/Reflection Ratiometric Reflectometry (DTR3) scheme. The DTR3 scheme has capability of detecting distributed strain using the long-gauge FBG with 50-cm spatial resolution. Additionally, dynamic strain measurement can be achieved using this technique in 100-Hz sampling rate. We evaluated strain sensing characteristics of the long-gauge FBG attached on 2.5-m aluminum bar by a four-point bending equipment. Experimental results showed that the DTR3 using the long-gauge FBG could detect distributed strain in static tests and resonance frequency of structure in free vibration tests. As a result, it is suggested that the DTR3 scheme using the longgauge FBG is attractive to structural health monitoring (SHM) as dynamic deformation detection of a few and tensmeters structure such as the airplane wing and the helicopter blade.

Developing stochastic epidemiological models to quantify the dynamics of infectious diseases in domestic livestock.

PubMed

MacKenzie, K; Bishop, S C

2001-08-01

A stochastic model describing disease transmission dynamics for a microparasitic infection in a structured domestic animal population is developed and applied to hypothetical epidemics on a pig farm. Rational decision making regarding appropriate control strategies for infectious diseases in domestic livestock requires an understanding of the disease dynamics and risk profiles for different groups of animals. This is best achieved by means of stochastic epidemic models. Methodologies are presented for 1) estimating the probability of an epidemic, given the presence of an infected animal, whether this epidemic is major (requires intervention) or minor (dies out without intervention), and how the location of the infected animal on the farm influences the epidemic probabilities; 2) estimating the basic reproductive ratio, R0 (i.e., the expected number of secondary cases on the introduction of a single infected animal) and the variability of the estimate of this parameter; and 3) estimating the total proportion of animals infected during an epidemic and the total proportion infected at any point in time. The model can be used for assessing impact of altering farm structure on disease dynamics, as well as disease control strategies, including altering farm structure, vaccination, culling, and genetic selection.

Determinants of Rotavirus Transmission: A Lag Nonlinear Time Series Analysis.

PubMed

van Gaalen, Rolina D; van de Kassteele, Jan; Hahné, Susan J M; Bruijning-Verhagen, Patricia; Wallinga, Jacco

2017-07-01

Rotavirus is a common viral infection among young children. As in many countries, the infection dynamics of rotavirus in the Netherlands are characterized by an annual winter peak, which was notably low in 2014. Previous study suggested an association between weather factors and both rotavirus transmission and incidence. From epidemic theory, we know that the proportion of susceptible individuals can affect disease transmission. We investigated how these factors are associated with rotavirus transmission in the Netherlands, and their impact on rotavirus transmission in 2014. We used available data on birth rates and rotavirus laboratory reports to estimate rotavirus transmission and the proportion of individuals susceptible to primary infection. Weather data were directly available from a central meteorological station. We developed an approach for detecting determinants of seasonal rotavirus transmission by assessing nonlinear, delayed associations between each factor and rotavirus transmission. We explored relationships by applying a distributed lag nonlinear regression model with seasonal terms. We corrected for residual serial correlation using autoregressive moving average errors. We inferred the relationship between different factors and the effective reproduction number from the most parsimonious model with low residual autocorrelation. Higher proportions of susceptible individuals and lower temperatures were associated with increases in rotavirus transmission. For 2014, our findings suggest that relatively mild temperatures combined with the low proportion of susceptible individuals contributed to lower rotavirus transmission in the Netherlands. However, our model, which overestimated the magnitude of the peak, suggested that other factors were likely instrumental in reducing the incidence that year.

Development of a model to simulate infection dynamics of Mycobacterium bovis in cattle herds in the United States

PubMed Central

Smith, Rebecca L.; Schukken, Ynte H.; Lu, Zhao; Mitchell, Rebecca M.; Grohn, Yrjo T.

2013-01-01

Objective To develop a mathematical model to simulate infection dynamics of Mycobacterium bovis in cattle herds in the United States and predict efficacy of the current national control strategy for tuberculosis in cattle. Design Stochastic simulation model. Sample Theoretical cattle herds in the United States. Procedures A model of within-herd M bovis transmission dynamics following introduction of 1 latently infected cow was developed. Frequency- and density-dependent transmission modes and 3 tuberculin-test based culling strategies (no test-based culling, constant (annual) testing with test-based culling, and the current strategy of slaughterhouse detection-based testing and culling) were investigated. Results were evaluated for 3 herd sizes over a 10-year period and validated via simulation of known outbreaks of M bovis infection. Results On the basis of 1,000 simulations (1000 herds each) at replacement rates typical for dairy cattle (0.33/y), median time to detection of M bovis infection in medium-sized herds (276 adult cattle) via slaughterhouse surveillance was 27 months after introduction, and 58% of these herds would spontaneously clear the infection prior to that time. Sixty-two percent of medium-sized herds without intervention and 99% of those managed with constant test-based culling were predicted to clear infection < 10 years after introduction. The model predicted observed outbreaks best for frequency-dependent transmission, and probability of clearance was most sensitive to replacement rate. Conclusions and Clinical Relevance Although modeling indicated the current national control strategy was sufficient for elimination of M bovis infection from dairy herds after detection, slaughterhouse surveillance was not sufficient to detect M bovis infection in all herds and resulted in subjectively delayed detection, compared with the constant testing method. Further research is required to economically optimize this strategy. PMID:23865885

Dynamical malaria models reveal how immunity buffers effect of climate variability

PubMed Central

Laneri, Karina; Paul, Richard E.; Tall, Adama; Faye, Joseph; Diene-Sarr, Fatoumata; Sokhna, Cheikh; Trape, Jean-François; Rodó, Xavier

2015-01-01

Assessing the influence of climate on the incidence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria worldwide and how it might impact local malaria dynamics is complex and extrapolation to other settings or future times is controversial. This is especially true in the light of the particularities of the short- and long-term immune responses to infection. In sites of epidemic malaria transmission, it is widely accepted that climate plays an important role in driving malaria outbreaks. However, little is known about the role of climate in endemic settings where clinical immunity develops early in life. To disentangle these differences among high- and low-transmission settings we applied a dynamical model to two unique adjacent cohorts of mesoendemic seasonal and holoendemic perennial malaria transmission in Senegal followed for two decades, recording daily P. falciparum cases. As both cohorts are subject to similar meteorological conditions, we were able to analyze the relevance of different immunological mechanisms compared with climatic forcing in malaria transmission. Transmission was first modeled by using similarly unique datasets of entomological inoculation rate. A stochastic nonlinear human–mosquito model that includes rainfall and temperature covariates, drug treatment periods, and population variability is capable of simulating the complete dynamics of reported malaria cases for both villages. We found that under moderate transmission intensity climate is crucial; however, under high endemicity the development of clinical immunity buffers any effect of climate. Our models open the possibility of forecasting malaria from climate in endemic regions but only after accounting for the interaction between climate and immunity. PMID:26124134

Dynamical malaria models reveal how immunity buffers effect of climate variability.

PubMed

Laneri, Karina; Paul, Richard E; Tall, Adama; Faye, Joseph; Diene-Sarr, Fatoumata; Sokhna, Cheikh; Trape, Jean-François; Rodó, Xavier

2015-07-14

Assessing the influence of climate on the incidence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria worldwide and how it might impact local malaria dynamics is complex and extrapolation to other settings or future times is controversial. This is especially true in the light of the particularities of the short- and long-term immune responses to infection. In sites of epidemic malaria transmission, it is widely accepted that climate plays an important role in driving malaria outbreaks. However, little is known about the role of climate in endemic settings where clinical immunity develops early in life. To disentangle these differences among high- and low-transmission settings we applied a dynamical model to two unique adjacent cohorts of mesoendemic seasonal and holoendemic perennial malaria transmission in Senegal followed for two decades, recording daily P. falciparum cases. As both cohorts are subject to similar meteorological conditions, we were able to analyze the relevance of different immunological mechanisms compared with climatic forcing in malaria transmission. Transmission was first modeled by using similarly unique datasets of entomological inoculation rate. A stochastic nonlinear human-mosquito model that includes rainfall and temperature covariates, drug treatment periods, and population variability is capable of simulating the complete dynamics of reported malaria cases for both villages. We found that under moderate transmission intensity climate is crucial; however, under high endemicity the development of clinical immunity buffers any effect of climate. Our models open the possibility of forecasting malaria from climate in endemic regions but only after accounting for the interaction between climate and immunity.

The Reduction of Measles Transmission During School Vacations.

PubMed

Klinkenberg, Don; Hahné, Susan J M; Woudenberg, Tom; Wallinga, Jacco

2018-07-01

Historically, measles incidence has shown clear seasonal patterns driven by the school calendar, but since the start of mass vaccination in developed countries there are only occasional outbreaks, which may have changed the effect of school vacations on transmission. In 2013-2014, a large measles epidemic took place in a low vaccination coverage area in The Netherlands, allowing us to quantify current-day measles transmission and the effect of school vacations. We fitted a dynamic transmission model to notification and hospitalization time series data of the Dutch 2013-2014 measles epidemic. Our primary aim was to estimate the reduction in contact rate during school vacations and the number of cases averted due to the vacation. In addition, because the summer vacations were time-staggered in three regions, we could distinguish within-region from across-region effects of school vacations. We estimated a 53% (95% credible interval: 45%, 60%) reduction in contact rate during school vacations, resulting in 4900 (3400-7100) averted cases (estimated outbreak size: 16,600 [12,600-23,200]). There was a shift from mainly local transmission during school term to mainly cross-regional transmission during vacations. With seroprevalence data, we derived a current-day estimate of 15 to 27 for R0 (number of secondary cases per primary case in a susceptible population). School vacations are associated with greatly reduced overall measles transmission. However, transmission is not eliminated, and increased long-distance travel may even promote spread to other areas. Therefore, we estimate that school closure is unlikely to prevent measles epidemics unless there are still few cases and the community is well vaccinated.

Recent developments in chaotic dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ott, E.

1994-02-01

Before the relatively recent wide acceptance of the existence of chaotic dynamics, many physicists and engineers were under the impression that simple systems could necessarily only display simple solutions. This feeling had been unintentionally reinforced by conventional college courses which emphasize linear dynamics (partly because that is the only case with nice general solutions). More recently, physical experiments and numerical examples have abundantly demonstrated how wrong this feeling is. A brief review of chaotic dynamics is presented. Topics discussed include basic concepts, recent developments, and applications.

Dynamic Radioisotope Power System Development for Space Explorations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Qualls, A L

Dynamic power conversion offers the potential to produce radioisotope power systems (RPS) that generate higher power outputs and utilize the Pu-238 radioisotope more efficiently than Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators (RTG). Additionally, dynamic systems also offer the potential of producing generators with significantly reduced power degradation over the course of deep space missions so that more power will be available at the end of the mission when it is needed for both powering the science and transmitting the results. The development of dynamic generators involves addressing technical issues not typically associated with traditional thermoelectric generators. Developing long-life, robust and reliable dynamic conversionmore » technology is challenging yet essential to building a suitable generator. Considerations include working within existing handling infrastructure where possible so that development costs can be kept low and integrating dynamic generators into spacecraft, which may be more complex than integration of static systems. Methods of interfacing to and controlling a dynamic generator must be considered and new potential failure modes must be taken into account. This paper will address some of the key issues of dynamic RPS design, development and adaption.Dynamic power conversion offers the potential to produce Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) that generate higher power outputs and utilize the available heat source plutonium fuel more efficiently than Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators. Additionally, dynamic systems offer the potential of producing generators with significantly reduced power degradation over the course of deep space missions so that more power would be available at the end of the mission, when it is needed most for both powering science instruments and transmitting the resulting data. The development of dynamic generators involves addressing technical issues not typically associated with traditional thermoelectric

Relating phylogenetic trees to transmission trees of infectious disease outbreaks.

PubMed

Ypma, Rolf J F; van Ballegooijen, W Marijn; Wallinga, Jacco

2013-11-01

Transmission events are the fundamental building blocks of the dynamics of any infectious disease. Much about the epidemiology of a disease can be learned when these individual transmission events are known or can be estimated. Such estimations are difficult and generally feasible only when detailed epidemiological data are available. The genealogy estimated from genetic sequences of sampled pathogens is another rich source of information on transmission history. Optimal inference of transmission events calls for the combination of genetic data and epidemiological data into one joint analysis. A key difficulty is that the transmission tree, which describes the transmission events between infected hosts, differs from the phylogenetic tree, which describes the ancestral relationships between pathogens sampled from these hosts. The trees differ both in timing of the internal nodes and in topology. These differences become more pronounced when a higher fraction of infected hosts is sampled. We show how the phylogenetic tree of sampled pathogens is related to the transmission tree of an outbreak of an infectious disease, by the within-host dynamics of pathogens. We provide a statistical framework to infer key epidemiological and mutational parameters by simultaneously estimating the phylogenetic tree and the transmission tree. We test the approach using simulations and illustrate its use on an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. The approach unifies existing methods in the emerging field of phylodynamics with transmission tree reconstruction methods that are used in infectious disease epidemiology.

Reconstruction of Rift Valley fever transmission dynamics in Madagascar: estimation of force of infection from seroprevalence surveys using Bayesian modelling

PubMed Central

Olive, Marie-Marie; Grosbois, Vladimir; Tran, Annelise; Nomenjanahary, Lalaina Arivony; Rakotoarinoro, Mihaja; Andriamandimby, Soa-Fy; Rogier, Christophe; Heraud, Jean-Michel; Chevalier, Veronique

2017-01-01

The force of infection (FOI) is one of the key parameters describing the dynamics of transmission of vector-borne diseases. Following the occurrence of two major outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in Madagascar in 1990–91 and 2008–09, recent studies suggest that the pattern of RVF virus (RVFV) transmission differed among the four main eco-regions (East, Highlands, North-West and South-West). Using Bayesian hierarchical models fitted to serological data from cattle of known age collected during two surveys (2008 and 2014), we estimated RVF FOI and described its variations over time and space in Madagascar. We show that the patterns of RVFV transmission strongly differed among the eco-regions. In the North-West and Highlands regions, these patterns were synchronous with a high intensity in mid-2007/mid-2008. In the East and South-West, the peaks of transmission were later, between mid-2008 and mid-2010. In the warm and humid northwestern eco-region favorable to mosquito populations, RVFV is probably transmitted all year-long at low-level during inter-epizootic period allowing its maintenance and being regularly introduced in the Highlands through ruminant trade. The RVF surveillance of animals of the northwestern region could be used as an early warning indicator of an increased risk of RVF outbreak in Madagascar. PMID:28051125

Reconstruction of Rift Valley fever transmission dynamics in Madagascar: estimation of force of infection from seroprevalence surveys using Bayesian modelling.

PubMed

Olive, Marie-Marie; Grosbois, Vladimir; Tran, Annelise; Nomenjanahary, Lalaina Arivony; Rakotoarinoro, Mihaja; Andriamandimby, Soa-Fy; Rogier, Christophe; Heraud, Jean-Michel; Chevalier, Veronique

2017-01-04

The force of infection (FOI) is one of the key parameters describing the dynamics of transmission of vector-borne diseases. Following the occurrence of two major outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in Madagascar in 1990-91 and 2008-09, recent studies suggest that the pattern of RVF virus (RVFV) transmission differed among the four main eco-regions (East, Highlands, North-West and South-West). Using Bayesian hierarchical models fitted to serological data from cattle of known age collected during two surveys (2008 and 2014), we estimated RVF FOI and described its variations over time and space in Madagascar. We show that the patterns of RVFV transmission strongly differed among the eco-regions. In the North-West and Highlands regions, these patterns were synchronous with a high intensity in mid-2007/mid-2008. In the East and South-West, the peaks of transmission were later, between mid-2008 and mid-2010. In the warm and humid northwestern eco-region favorable to mosquito populations, RVFV is probably transmitted all year-long at low-level during inter-epizootic period allowing its maintenance and being regularly introduced in the Highlands through ruminant trade. The RVF surveillance of animals of the northwestern region could be used as an early warning indicator of an increased risk of RVF outbreak in Madagascar.

Research on investment decisions model of trans-regional transmission network based on the theory of NPV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zai, Wenjiao; Wang, Bo; Liu, Jichun; Shi, Haobo; Zeng, Pingliang

2018-02-01

The investment decision model of trans-regional transmission network in the context of Global Energy Internet was studied in this paper. The key factors affecting the trans-regional transmission network investment income: the income tax rate, the loan interest rate, the expected return on investment of the investment subject, the per capita GDP and so on were considered in the transmission network investment income model. First, according to the principle of system dynamics, the causality diagram of key factors was constructed. Then, the dynamic model of transmission investment decision was established. A case study of the power transmission network between China and Mongolia, through the simulation of the system dynamic model, the influence of the above key factors on the investment returns was analyzed, and the feasibility and effectiveness of the model was proved.

TLIFE: a Program for Spur, Helical and Spiral Bevel Transmission Life and Reliability Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Savage, M.; Prasanna, M. G.; Rubadeux, K. L.

1994-01-01

This report describes a computer program, 'TLIFE', which models the service life of a transmission. The program is written in ANSI standard Fortran 77 and has an executable size of about 157 K bytes for use on a personal computer running DOS. It can also be compiled and executed in UNIX. The computer program can analyze any one of eleven unit transmissions either singly or in a series combination of up to twenty-five unit transmissions. Metric or English unit calculations are performed with the same routines using consistent input data and a units flag. Primary outputs are the dynamic capacity of the transmission and the mean lives of the transmission and of the sum of its components. The program uses a modular approach to separate the load analyses from the system life calculations. The program and its input and output data files are described herein. Three examples illustrate its use. A development of the theory behind the analysis in the program is included after the examples.

Autochthonous Chikungunya Transmission and Extreme Climate Events in Southern France.

PubMed

Roiz, David; Boussès, Philippe; Simard, Frédéric; Paupy, Christophe; Fontenille, Didier

2015-06-01

Extreme precipitation events are increasing as a result of ongoing global warming, but controversy surrounds the relationship between flooding and mosquito-borne diseases. A common view among the scientific community and public health officers is that heavy rainfalls have a flushing effect on breeding sites, which negatively affects vector populations, thereby diminishing disease transmission. During 2014 in Montpellier, France, there were at least 11 autochthonous cases of chikungunya caused by the invasive tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus in the vicinity of an imported case. We show that an extreme rainfall event increased and extended the abundance of the disease vector Ae. albopictus, hence the period of autochthonous transmission of chikungunya. We report results from close monitoring of the adult and egg population of the chikungunya vector Ae. albopictus through weekly sampling over the entire mosquito breeding season, which revealed an unexpected pattern. Statistical analysis of the seasonal dynamics of female abundance in relation to climatic factors showed that these relationships changed after the heavy rainfall event. Before the inundations, accumulated temperatures are the most important variable predicting Ae. albopictus seasonal dynamics. However, after the inundations, accumulated rainfall over the 4 weeks prior to capture predicts the seasonal dynamics of this species and extension of the transmission period. Our empirical data suggests that heavy rainfall events did increase the risk of arbovirus transmission in Southern France in 2014 by favouring a rapid rise in abundance of vector mosquitoes. Further studies should now confirm these results in different ecological contexts, so that the impact of global change and extreme climatic events on mosquito population dynamics and the risk of disease transmission can be adequately understood.

Pneumatic Valve Operated by Multiplex Pneumatic Transmission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishioka, Yasutaka; Suzumori, Koichi; Kanda, Takefumi; Wakimoto, Shuichi

A pneumatic system has several advantages, which are cheapness, lightweight, and reliability to human and environment. These advantages are adapted to some research areas, such as industrial lines, medical and nursing cares, and rehabilitation tools. However, the pneumatic system needs several devices; compressor, air tube, and control valve. This research aim to downsize pneumatic system. In this paper, a new method of multiplex pneumatic transmission for multi-pneumatic servo system is proposed. The valve for this system consists of two vibrators supported by springs, which was designed with simple and cheap structure. The working principle of the valve is vibrators resonance from multiplex pneumatic transmission and it is possible to work as ON/OFF valves without electric wire. Dynamic simulation was used to confirm the working principle of the resonance driving system. A prototype device confirming the principle was designed and developed based on the simulation. The experiments show that this new control system works very well to control two separated valves through single pneumatic tube.

Unsafe injections in the developing world and transmission of bloodborne pathogens: a review.

PubMed Central

Simonsen, L.; Kane, A.; Lloyd, J.; Zaffran, M.; Kane, M.

1999-01-01

Unsafe injections are suspected to occur routinely in developing countries. We carried out a literature review to quantify the prevalence of unsafe injections and to assess the disease burden of bloodborne infections attributable to this practice. Quantitative information on injection use and unsafe injections (defined as the reuse of syringe or needle between patients without sterilization) was obtained by reviewing the published literature and unpublished WHO reports. The transmissibility of hepatitis B and C viruses and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) was estimated using data from studies of needle-stick injuries. Finally, all epidemiological studies that linked unsafe injections and bloodborne infections were evaluated to assess the attributable burden of bloodborne infections. It was estimated that each person in the developing world receives 1.5 injections per year on average. However, institutionalized children, and children and adults who are ill or hospitalized, including those infected with HIV, are often exposed to 10-100 times as many injections. An average of 95% of all injections are therapeutic, the majority of which were judged to be unnecessary. At least 50% of injections were unsafe in 14 of 19 countries (representing five developing world regions) for which data were available. Eighteen studies reported a convincing link between unsafe injections and the transmission of hepatitis B and C, HIV, Ebola and Lassa virus infections and malaria. Five studies attributed 20-80% of all new hepatitis B infections to unsafe injections, while three implicated unsafe injections as a major mode of transmission of hepatitis C. In conclusion, unsafe injections occur routinely in most developing world regions, implying a significant potential for the transmission of any bloodborne pathogen. Unsafe injections currently account for a significant proportion of all new hepatitis B and C infections. This situation needs to be addressed immediately, as a political

Adult vector control, mosquito ecology and malaria transmission

PubMed Central

Brady, Oliver J.; Godfray, H. Charles J.; Tatem, Andrew J.; Gething, Peter W.; Cohen, Justin M.; McKenzie, F. Ellis; Alex Perkins, T.; Reiner, Robert C.; Tusting, Lucy S.; Scott, Thomas W.; Lindsay, Steven W.; Hay, Simon I.; Smith, David L.

2015-01-01

Background Standard advice regarding vector control is to prefer interventions that reduce the lifespan of adult mosquitoes. The basis for this advice is a decades-old sensitivity analysis of ‘vectorial capacity’, a concept relevant for most malaria transmission models and based solely on adult mosquito population dynamics. Recent advances in micro-simulation models offer an opportunity to expand the theory of vectorial capacity to include both adult and juvenile mosquito stages in the model. Methods In this study we revisit arguments about transmission and its sensitivity to mosquito bionomic parameters using an elasticity analysis of developed formulations of vectorial capacity. Results We show that reducing adult survival has effects on both adult and juvenile population size, which are significant for transmission and not accounted for in traditional formulations of vectorial capacity. The elasticity of these effects is dependent on various mosquito population parameters, which we explore. Overall, control is most sensitive to methods that affect adult mosquito mortality rates, followed by blood feeding frequency, human blood feeding habit, and lastly, to adult mosquito population density. Conclusions These results emphasise more strongly than ever the sensitivity of transmission to adult mosquito mortality, but also suggest the high potential of combinations of interventions including larval source management. This must be done with caution, however, as policy requires a more careful consideration of costs, operational difficulties and policy goals in relation to baseline transmission. PMID:25733562

Adult vector control, mosquito ecology and malaria transmission.

PubMed

Brady, Oliver J; Godfray, H Charles J; Tatem, Andrew J; Gething, Peter W; Cohen, Justin M; McKenzie, F Ellis; Alex Perkins, T; Reiner, Robert C; Tusting, Lucy S; Scott, Thomas W; Lindsay, Steven W; Hay, Simon I; Smith, David L

2015-03-01

Standard advice regarding vector control is to prefer interventions that reduce the lifespan of adult mosquitoes. The basis for this advice is a decades-old sensitivity analysis of 'vectorial capacity', a concept relevant for most malaria transmission models and based solely on adult mosquito population dynamics. Recent advances in micro-simulation models offer an opportunity to expand the theory of vectorial capacity to include both adult and juvenile mosquito stages in the model. In this study we revisit arguments about transmission and its sensitivity to mosquito bionomic parameters using an elasticity analysis of developed formulations of vectorial capacity. We show that reducing adult survival has effects on both adult and juvenile population size, which are significant for transmission and not accounted for in traditional formulations of vectorial capacity. The elasticity of these effects is dependent on various mosquito population parameters, which we explore. Overall, control is most sensitive to methods that affect adult mosquito mortality rates, followed by blood feeding frequency, human blood feeding habit, and lastly, to adult mosquito population density. These results emphasise more strongly than ever the sensitivity of transmission to adult mosquito mortality, but also suggest the high potential of combinations of interventions including larval source management. This must be done with caution, however, as policy requires a more careful consideration of costs, operational difficulties and policy goals in relation to baseline transmission. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of HIV-1 transmission in France (1999-2014) and impact of targeted prevention strategies.

PubMed

Chaillon, Antoine; Essat, Asma; Frange, Pierre; Smith, Davey M; Delaugerre, Constance; Barin, Francis; Ghosn, Jade; Pialoux, Gilles; Robineau, Olivier; Rouzioux, Christine; Goujard, Cécile; Meyer, Laurence; Chaix, Marie-Laure

2017-02-21

Characterizing HIV-1 transmission networks can be important in understanding the evolutionary patterns and geospatial spread of the epidemic. We reconstructed the broad molecular epidemiology of HIV from individuals with primary HIV-1 infection (PHI) enrolled in France in the ANRS PRIMO C06 cohort over 15 years. Sociodemographic, geographic, clinical, biological and pol sequence data from 1356 patients were collected between 1999 and 2014. Network analysis was performed to infer genetic relationships, i.e. clusters of transmission, between HIV-1 sequences. Bayesian coalescent-based methods were used to examine the temporal and spatial dynamics of identified clusters from different regions in France. We also evaluated the use of network information to target prevention efforts. Participants were mostly Caucasian (85.9%) and men (86.7%) who reported sex with men (MSM, 71.4%). Overall, 387 individuals (28.5%) were involved in clusters: 156 patients (11.5%) in 78 dyads and 231 participants (17%) in 42 larger clusters (median size: 4, range 3-41). Compared to individuals with single PHI (n = 969), those in clusters were more frequently men (95.9 vs 83%, p < 0.01), MSM (85.8 vs 65.6%, p < 0.01) and infected with CRF02_AG (20.4 vs 13.4%, p < 0.01). Reconstruction of viral migrations across time suggests that Paris area was the major hub of dissemination of both subtype B and CRF02_AG epidemics. By targeting clustering individuals belonging to the identified active transmission network before 2010, 60 of the 143 onward transmissions could have been prevented. These analyses support the hypothesis of a recent and rapid rise of CRF02_AG within the French HIV-1 epidemic among MSM. Combined with a short turnaround time for sample processing, targeting prevention efforts based on phylogenetic monitoring may be an efficient way to deliver prevention interventions but would require near real time targeted interventions on the identified index cases and their partners.

The biology of sexual development of Plasmodium: the design and implementation of transmission-blocking strategies.

PubMed

Sinden, Robert E; Carter, Richard; Drakeley, Chris; Leroy, Didier

2012-03-16

A meeting to discuss the latest developments in the biology of sexual development of Plasmodium and transmission-control was held April 5-6, 2011, in Bethesda, MD. The meeting was sponsored by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIH/NIAID) in response to the challenge issued at the Malaria Forum in October 2007 that the malaria community should re-engage with the objective of global eradication. The consequent rebalancing of research priorities has brought to the forefront of the research agenda the essential need to reduce parasite transmission. A key component of any transmission reduction strategy must be methods to attack the parasite as it passes from man to the mosquito (and vice versa). Such methods must be rationally based on a secure understanding of transmission from the molecular-, cellular-, population- to the evolutionary-levels. The meeting represented a first attempt to draw together scientists with expertise in these multiple layers of understanding to discuss the scientific foundations and resources that will be required to provide secure progress toward the design and successful implementation of effective interventions.

Progress on Fault Mechanisms for Gear Transmissions in Coal Cutting Machines: From Macro to Nano Models.

PubMed

Jiang, Yu; Zhang, Xiaogang; Zhang, Chao; Li, Zhixiong; Sheng, Chenxing

2017-04-01

Numerical modeling has been recognized as the dispensable tools for mechanical fault mechanism analysis. Techniques, ranging from macro to nano levels, include the finite element modeling boundary element modeling, modular dynamic modeling, nano dynamic modeling and so forth. This work firstly reviewed the progress on the fault mechanism analysis for gear transmissions from the tribological and dynamic aspects. Literature review indicates that the tribological and dynamic properties were separately investigated to explore the fault mechanism in gear transmissions. However, very limited work has been done to address the links between the tribological and dynamic properties and scarce researches have been done for coal cutting machines. For this reason, the tribo-dynamic coupled model was introduced to bridge the gap between the tribological and dynamic models in fault mechanism analysis for gear transmissions in coal cutting machines. The modular dynamic modeling and nano dynamic modeling techniques are expected to establish the links between the tribological and dynamic models. Possible future research directions using the tribo dynamic coupled model were summarized to provide potential references for researchers in the field.

Zika Virus: Transmission, Detection, Control, and Prevention

PubMed Central

Sharma, Anshika; Lal, Sunil K.

2017-01-01

Zika virus (ZIKV) is a mosquito-borne Flavivirus discovered in Uganda in the 1940s. To date, three major ZIKV outbreaks have been reported. ZIKV infections have known to be primarily asymptomatic while causing mild illness in a few cases. However, the recent emergence and spread of ZIKV in the Americas has resulted in the declaration of “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” due to the potential association between the infection and prenatal microcephaly or other brain anomalies. In Brazil, a 20-fold increase in prenatal microcephaly cases and 19% increase in Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS) cases were reported in 2015, as compared to the preceding year. The probable deleterious effects of ZIKV infection prompt the urgent development of diagnostics and therapeutics. To this end, the existing evidences supporting the increasingly common prenatal microcephaly and GBS association and the current known ZIKV transmission dynamics, modes of detection (molecular and serology-based), and current control strategies are summarized in this review. This review also emphasizes the importance of understanding ZIKV transmission in order to design a sensitive yet cost and time-efficient detection technique. Development of an efficient detection technique would subsequently allow for better surveillance and control of ZIKV infection. Currently, limited literature is available on the pathogenesis of ZIKV, hence, focusing on the modes of ZIKV transmission could potentially contribute to the understanding of the disease spectrum and formulation of targeted treatment and control. PMID:28217114

Effect of Bearing Dynamic Stiffness on Gear Vibration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fleming, David P.

2002-01-01

Noise is a major consideration in the design of high performance geared transmissions, such as for helicopters. Transmission error, that is, the accuracy with which the driven gear follows the driver gear, is a common indicator of noise generation. It is well known that bearing properties have a strong influence on shaft dynamics. However, up to now the contribution of bearings to transmission error has received little attention. In this paper, a torsional-axial-lateral geared rotor analysis is used to determine dynamic transmission error as a function of bearing stiffness and damping. Bearings have a similar effect as found in shaft dynamics; transmission error can be reduced more than 10 decibels by appropriate selection of bearing properties.

The 1918 influenza pandemic in New York City: age-specific timing, mortality, and transmission dynamics

PubMed Central

Yang, Wan; Petkova, Elisaveta; Shaman, Jeffrey

2014-01-01

Background The 1918 influenza pandemic caused disproportionately high mortality among certain age groups. The mechanisms underlying these differences are not fully understood. Objectives To explore the dynamics of the 1918 pandemic and to identify potential age-specific transmission patterns. Methods We examined 1915–1923 daily mortality data in New York City (NYC) and estimated the outbreak duration and initial effective reproductive number (Re) for each 1-year age cohort. Results Four pandemic waves occurred from February 1918 to April 1920. The fractional mortality increase (i.e. ratio of excess mortality to baseline mortality) was highest among teenagers during the first wave. This peak shifted to 25- to 29-year-olds in subsequent waves. The distribution of age-specific mortality during the last three waves was strongly correlated (r = 0·94 and 0·86). With each wave, the pandemic appeared to spread with a comparable early growth rate but then attenuate with varying rates. For the entire population, Re estimates made assuming 2-day serial interval were 1·74 (1·27), 1·74 (1·43), 1·66 (1·25), and 1·86 (1·37), respectively, during the first week (first 3 weeks) of each wave. Using age-specific mortality, the average Re estimates over the first week of each wave were 1·62 (95% CI: 1·55–1·68), 1·68 (1·65–1·72), 1·67 (1·61–1·73), and 1·69 (1·63–1·74), respectively; Re was not significantly different either among age cohorts or between waves. Conclusions The pandemic generally caused higher mortality among young adults and might have spread mainly among school-aged children during the first wave. We propose mechanisms to explain the timing and transmission dynamics of the four NYC pandemic waves. PMID:24299150

Modeling the transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease in Liberia.

PubMed

Xia, Zhi-Qiang; Wang, Shi-Fu; Li, Shen-Long; Huang, Liu-Yu; Zhang, Wen-Yi; Sun, Gui-Quan; Gai, Zhong-Tao; Jin, Zhen

2015-09-08

Ebola virus disease (EVD) has erupted many times in some zones since it was first found in 1976. The 2014 EVD outbreak in West Africa is the largest ever, which has caused a large number of deaths and the most serious country is Liberia during the outbreak period. Based on the data released by World Health Organization and the actual transmission situations, we investigate the impact of different transmission routes on the EVD outbreak in Liberia and estimate the basic reproduction number R0 = 2.012 in the absence of effective control measures. Through sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, we reveal that the transmission coefficients of suspected and probable cases have stronger correlations on the basic reproduction number. Furthermore, we study the influence of control measures (isolation and safe burial measures) on EVD outbreak. It is found that if combined control measures are taken, the basic reproduction number will be less than one and thus EVD in Liberia may be well contained. The obtained results may provide new guidance to prevent and control the spread of disease.

Controllable asymmetric transmission via gap-tunable acoustic metasurface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Bingyi; Jiang, Yongyuan

2018-04-01

In this work, we utilize the acoustic gradient metasurface (AGM) of a bilayer configuration to realize the controllable asymmetric transmission. Relying on the adjustable gap between the two composing layers, the metasurface could switch from symmetric transmission to asymmetric transmission at a certain gap value. The underlying mechanism is attributed to the interference between the forward diffracted waves scattered by the surface bound waves at two air-AGM interfaces, which is apparently influenced by the interlayer distance. We further utilize the hybrid acoustic elements to construct the desired gradient metasurface with a tunable gap and validate the controllable asymmetric transmission with full-wave simulations. Our work provides the solution for actively controlling the transmission property of an acoustic element, which shows potential application in acoustic communication as a dynamic tunable acoustic diode.

Transmission dynamics of parasitic sea lice from farm to wild salmon.

PubMed

Krkosek, Martin; Lewis, Mark A; Volpe, John P

2005-04-07

Marine salmon farming has been correlated with parasitic sea lice infestations and concurrent declines of wild salmonids. Here, we report a quantitative analysis of how a single salmon farm altered the natural transmission dynamics of sea lice to juvenile Pacific salmon. We studied infections of sea lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis and Caligus clemensi) on juvenile pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) and chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) as they passed an isolated salmon farm during their seaward migration down two long and narrow corridors. Our calculations suggest the infection pressure imposed by the farm was four orders of magnitude greater than ambient levels, resulting in a maximum infection pressure near the farm that was 73 times greater than ambient levels and exceeded ambient levels for 30 km along the two wild salmon migration corridors. The farm-produced cohort of lice parasitizing the wild juvenile hosts reached reproductive maturity and produced a second generation of lice that re-infected the juvenile salmon. This raises the infection pressure from the farm by an additional order of magnitude, with a composite infection pressure that exceeds ambient levels for 75 km of the two migration routes. Amplified sea lice infestations due to salmon farms are a potential limiting factor to wild salmonid conservation.

Transmission dynamics of parasitic sea lice from farm to wild salmon

PubMed Central

Krkošek, Martin; Lewis, Mark A; Volpe, John P

2005-01-01

Marine salmon farming has been correlated with parasitic sea lice infestations and concurrent declines of wild salmonids. Here, we report a quantitative analysis of how a single salmon farm altered the natural transmission dynamics of sea lice to juvenile Pacific salmon. We studied infections of sea lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis and Caligus clemensi ) on juvenile pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) and chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) as they passed an isolated salmon farm during their seaward migration down two long and narrow corridors. Our calculations suggest the infection pressure imposed by the farm was four orders of magnitude greater than ambient levels, resulting in a maximum infection pressure near the farm that was 73 times greater than ambient levels and exceeded ambient levels for 30 km along the two wild salmon migration corridors. The farm-produced cohort of lice parasitizing the wild juvenile hosts reached reproductive maturity and produced a second generation of lice that re-infected the juvenile salmon. This raises the infection pressure from the farm by an additional order of magnitude, with a composite infection pressure that exceeds ambient levels for 75 km of the two migration routes. Amplified sea lice infestations due to salmon farms are a potential limiting factor to wild salmonid conservation. PMID:15870031

Emergence of airway smooth muscle mechanical behavior through dynamic reorganization of contractile units and force transmission pathways

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Airway hyperresponsiveness (AHR) in asthma remains poorly understood despite significant research effort to elucidate relevant underlying mechanisms. In particular, a significant body of experimental work has focused on the effect of tidal fluctuations on airway smooth muscle (ASM) cells, tissues, lung slices, and whole airways to understand the bronchodilating effect of tidal breathing and deep inspirations. These studies have motivated conceptual models that involve dynamic reorganization of both cytoskeletal components as well as contractile machinery. In this article, a biophysical model of the whole ASM cell is presented that combines 1) crossbridge cycling between actin and myosin; 2) actin-myosin disconnectivity, under imposed length changes, to allow dynamic reconfiguration of “force transmission pathways”; and 3) dynamic parallel-to-serial transitions of contractile units within these pathways that occur through a length fluctuation. Results of this theoretical model suggest that behavior characteristic of experimentally observed force-length loops of maximally activated ASM strips can be explained by interactions among the three mechanisms. Crucially, both sustained disconnectivity and parallel-to-serial transitions are necessary to explain the nature of hysteresis and strain stiffening observed experimentally. The results provide strong evidence that dynamic rearrangement of contractile machinery is a likely mechanism underlying many of the phenomena observed at timescales associated with tidal breathing. This theoretical cell-level model captures many of the salient features of mechanical behavior observed experimentally and should provide a useful starting block for a bottom-up approach to understanding tissue-level mechanical behavior. PMID:24481961

Photocathode Optimization for a Dynamic Transmission Electron Microscope: Final Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ellis, P; Flom, Z; Heinselman, K

2011-08-04

The Dynamic Transmission Electron Microscope (DTEM) team at Harvey Mudd College has been sponsored by LLNL to design and build a test setup for optimizing the performance of the DTEM's electron source. Unlike a traditional TEM, the DTEM achieves much faster exposure times by using photoemission from a photocathode to produce electrons for imaging. The DTEM team's work is motivated by the need to improve the coherence and current density of the electron cloud produced by the electron gun in order to increase the image resolution and contrast achievable by DTEM. The photoemission test setup is nearly complete and themore » team will soon complete baseline tests of electron gun performance. The photoemission laser and high voltage power supply have been repaired; the optics path for relaying the laser to the photocathode has been finalized, assembled, and aligned; the internal setup of the vacuum chamber has been finalized and mostly implemented; and system control, synchronization, and data acquisition has been implemented in LabVIEW. Immediate future work includes determining a consistent alignment procedure to place the laser waist on the photocathode, and taking baseline performance measurements of the tantalum photocathode. Future research will examine the performance of the electron gun as a function of the photoemission laser profile, the photocathode material, and the geometry and voltages of the accelerating and focusing components in the electron gun. This report presents the team's progress and outlines the work that remains.« less

Identifiability and estimation of multiple transmission pathways in cholera and waterborne disease.

PubMed

Eisenberg, Marisa C; Robertson, Suzanne L; Tien, Joseph H

2013-05-07

Cholera and many waterborne diseases exhibit multiple characteristic timescales or pathways of infection, which can be modeled as direct and indirect transmission. A major public health issue for waterborne diseases involves understanding the modes of transmission in order to improve control and prevention strategies. An important epidemiological question is: given data for an outbreak, can we determine the role and relative importance of direct vs. environmental/waterborne routes of transmission? We examine whether parameters for a differential equation model of waterborne disease transmission dynamics can be identified, both in the ideal setting of noise-free data (structural identifiability) and in the more realistic setting in the presence of noise (practical identifiability). We used a differential algebra approach together with several numerical approaches, with a particular emphasis on identifiability of the transmission rates. To examine these issues in a practical public health context, we apply the model to a recent cholera outbreak in Angola (2006). Our results show that the model parameters-including both water and person-to-person transmission routes-are globally structurally identifiable, although they become unidentifiable when the environmental transmission timescale is fast. Even for water dynamics within the identifiable range, when noisy data are considered, only a combination of the water transmission parameters can practically be estimated. This makes the waterborne transmission parameters difficult to estimate, leading to inaccurate estimates of important epidemiological parameters such as the basic reproduction number (R0). However, measurements of pathogen persistence time in environmental water sources or measurements of pathogen concentration in the water can improve model identifiability and allow for more accurate estimation of waterborne transmission pathway parameters as well as R0. Parameter estimates for the Angola outbreak suggest

Development of an accurate transmission line fault locator using the global positioning system satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Harry

1994-01-01

A highly accurate transmission line fault locator based on the traveling-wave principle was developed and successfully operated within B.C. Hydro. A transmission line fault produces a fast-risetime traveling wave at the fault point which propagates along the transmission line. This fault locator system consists of traveling wave detectors located at key substations which detect and time tag the leading edge of the fault-generated traveling wave as if passes through. A master station gathers the time-tagged information from the remote detectors and determines the location of the fault. Precise time is a key element to the success of this system. This fault locator system derives its timing from the Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites. System tests confirmed the accuracy of locating faults to within the design objective of +/-300 meters.

Structural and Dynamic Insights into the Mechanism of Allosteric Signal Transmission in ERK2-Mediated MKP3 Activation.

PubMed

Lu, Chang; Liu, Xin; Zhang, Chen-Song; Gong, Haipeng; Wu, Jia-Wei; Wang, Zhi-Xin

2017-11-21

The mitogen-activated protein kinases (MAPKs) are key components of cellular signal transduction pathways, which are down-regulated by the MAPK phosphatases (MKPs). Catalytic activity of the MKPs is controlled both by their ability to recognize selective MAPKs and by allosteric activation upon binding to MAPK substrates. Here, we use a combination of experimental and computational techniques to elucidate the molecular mechanism for the ERK2-induced MKP3 activation. Mutational and kinetic study shows that the 334 FNFM 337 motif in the MKP3 catalytic domain is essential for MKP3-mediated ERK2 inactivation and is responsible for ERK2-mediated MKP3 activation. The long-term molecular dynamics (MD) simulations further reveal a complete dynamic process in which the catalytic domain of MKP3 gradually changes to a conformation that resembles an active MKP catalytic domain over the time scale of the simulation, providing a direct time-dependent observation of allosteric signal transmission in ERK2-induced MKP3 activation.

Development of a Protocol for Automated Glucose Measurement Transmission Used in Clinical Decision Support Systems Based on the Continua Design Guidelines.

PubMed

Meyer, Markus; Donsa, Klaus; Truskaller, Thomas; Frohner, Matthias; Pohn, Birgit; Felfernig, Alexander; Sinner, Frank; Pieber, Thomas

2018-01-01

A fast and accurate data transmission from glucose meter to clinical decision support systems (CDSSs) is crucial for the management of type 2 diabetes mellitus since almost all therapeutic interventions are derived from glucose measurements. Aim was to develop a prototype of an automated glucose measurement transmission protocol based on the Continua Design Guidelines and to embed the protocol into a CDSS used by healthcare professionals. A literature and market research was performed to analyze the state-of-the-art and thereupon develop, integrate and validate an automated glucose measurement transmission protocol in an iterative process. Findings from literature and market research guided towards the development of a standardized glucose measurement transmission protocol using a middleware. The interface description to communicate with the glucose meter was illustrated and embedded into a CDSS. A prototype of an interoperable transmission of glucose measurements was developed and implemented in a CDSS presenting a promising way to reduce medication errors and improve user satisfaction.

Climate Variability, Social and Environmental Factors, and Ross River Virus Transmission: Research Development and Future Research Needs

PubMed Central

Tong, Shilu; Dale, Pat; Nicholls, Neville; Mackenzie, John S.; Wolff, Rodney; McMichael, Anthony J.

2008-01-01

Background Arbovirus diseases have emerged as a global public health concern. However, the impact of climatic, social, and environmental variability on the transmission of arbovirus diseases remains to be determined. Objective Our goal for this study was to provide an overview of research development and future research directions about the interrelationship between climate variability, social and environmental factors, and the transmission of Ross River virus (RRV), the most common and widespread arbovirus disease in Australia. Methods We conducted a systematic literature search on climatic, social, and environmental factors and RRV disease. Potentially relevant studies were identified from a series of electronic searches. Results The body of evidence revealed that the transmission cycles of RRV disease appear to be sensitive to climate and tidal variability. Rainfall, temperature, and high tides were among major determinants of the transmission of RRV disease at the macro level. However, the nature and magnitude of the interrelationship between climate variability, mosquito density, and the transmission of RRV disease varied with geographic area and socioenvironmental condition. Projected anthropogenic global climatic change may result in an increase in RRV infections, and the key determinants of RRV transmission we have identified here may be useful in the development of an early warning system. Conclusions The analysis indicates that there is a complex relationship between climate variability, social and environmental factors, and RRV transmission. Different strategies may be needed for the control and prevention of RRV disease at different levels. These research findings could be used as an additional tool to support decision making in disease control/surveillance and risk management. PMID:19079707

Climate variability, social and environmental factors, and ross river virus transmission: research development and future research needs.

PubMed

Tong, Shilu; Dale, Pat; Nicholls, Neville; Mackenzie, John S; Wolff, Rodney; McMichael, Anthony J

2008-12-01

Arbovirus diseases have emerged as a global public health concern. However, the impact of climatic, social, and environmental variability on the transmission of arbovirus diseases remains to be determined. Our goal for this study was to provide an overview of research development and future research directions about the interrelationship between climate variability, social and environmental factors, and the transmission of Ross River virus (RRV), the most common and widespread arbovirus disease in Australia. We conducted a systematic literature search on climatic, social, and environmental factors and RRV disease. Potentially relevant studies were identified from a series of electronic searches. The body of evidence revealed that the transmission cycles of RRV disease appear to be sensitive to climate and tidal variability. Rainfall, temperature, and high tides were among major determinants of the transmission of RRV disease at the macro level. However, the nature and magnitude of the interrelationship between climate variability, mosquito density, and the transmission of RRV disease varied with geographic area and socioenvironmental condition. Projected anthropogenic global climatic change may result in an increase in RRV infections, and the key determinants of RRV transmission we have identified here may be useful in the development of an early warning system. The analysis indicates that there is a complex relationship between climate variability, social and environmental factors, and RRV transmission. Different strategies may be needed for the control and prevention of RRV disease at different levels. These research findings could be used as an additional tool to support decision making in disease control/surveillance and risk management.

Transmission Dynamics of Rift Valley Fever Virus: Effects of Live and Killed Vaccines on Epizootic Outbreaks and Enzootic Maintenance

PubMed Central

Chamchod, Farida; Cosner, Chris; Cantrell, R. Stephen; Beier, John C.; Ruan, Shigui

2016-01-01

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is an arthropod-borne viral pathogen that causes significant morbidity and mortality in small ruminants throughout Africa and the Middle East. Due to the sporadic and explosive nature of RVF outbreaks, vaccination has proved challenging to reduce RVFV infection in the ruminant population. Currently, there are two available types of vaccines, live and killed, in endemic areas. In this study, two mathematical models have been developed to explore the impact of live and killed vaccines on the transmission dynamics of RVFV. We demonstrate in general that vaccination helps reduce the severity of RVF outbreaks and that less delay in implementation and more vaccination attempts and effective vaccines can reduce the outbreak magnitude and the endemic number of RVFV. However, an introduction of a number of ruminants vaccinated by live vaccines in RVFV-free areas may cause an outbreak and RVFV may become endemic if there is sustained use of live vaccines. Other factors that are the important determinants of RVF outbreaks include: unsustained vaccination programs, recruitment of susceptible ruminants, and the seasonal abundance of mosquitoes. PMID:26869999

Impacts of Climate Change on Malaria Transmission in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eltahir, E. A. B.; Endo, N.; Yamana, T. K.

2017-12-01

Malaria is a major vector-borne parasitic disease transmitted to humans by Anopheles spp mosquitoes. Africa is the hotspot for malaria transmission where more than 90% of malaria deaths occur every year. Malaria transmission is an intricate function of climatic factors, which non-linearly affect the development of vectors and parasites. We project that the risk of malaria will increase towards the end of the 21st century in east Africa, but decrease in west Africa. We combine a novel malaria transmission simulator, HYDREMATS, that has been developed based on comprehensive multi-year field surveys both in East Africa and West Africa, and the most reliable climate projections through regional dynamical downscaling and rigorous selection of GCMs from among CMIP5 models. We define a bell-shaped relation between malaria intensity and temperature, centered around a temperature of 30°C. Future risks of malaria are projected for two highly populated regions in Africa: the highlands in East Africa and the fringes of the desert in West Africa. In the highlands of East Africa, temperature is substantially colder than this optimal temperature; warmer future climate exacerbate malaria conditions. In the Sahel fringes in West Africa, temperature is around this optimal temperature; warming is not likely to exacerbate and might even reduce malaria burden. Unlike the highlands of East Africa, which receive significant amounts of annual rainfall, dry conditions also limit malaria transmission in the Sahel fringes in West Africa. This disproportionate risk of malaria due to climate change should guide strategies for climate adaptation over Africa.

Bayesian estimation of the dynamics of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza transmission in Queensland: A space-time SIR-based model.

PubMed

Huang, Xiaodong; Clements, Archie C A; Williams, Gail; Mengersen, Kerrie; Tong, Shilu; Hu, Wenbiao

2016-04-01

A pandemic strain of influenza A spread rapidly around the world in 2009, now referred to as pandemic (H1N1) 2009. This study aimed to examine the spatiotemporal variation in the transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 associated with changes in local socio-environmental conditions from May 7-December 31, 2009, at a postal area level in Queensland, Australia. We used the data on laboratory-confirmed H1N1 cases to examine the spatiotemporal dynamics of transmission using a flexible Bayesian, space-time, Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) modelling approach. The model incorporated parameters describing spatiotemporal variation in H1N1 infection and local socio-environmental factors. The weekly transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 was negatively associated with the weekly area-mean maximum temperature at a lag of 1 week (LMXT) (posterior mean: -0.341; 95% credible interval (CI): -0.370--0.311) and the socio-economic index for area (SEIFA) (posterior mean: -0.003; 95% CI: -0.004--0.001), and was positively associated with the product of LMXT and the weekly area-mean vapour pressure at a lag of 1 week (LVAP) (posterior mean: 0.008; 95% CI: 0.007-0.009). There was substantial spatiotemporal variation in transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 across Queensland over the epidemic period. High random effects of estimated transmission rates were apparent in remote areas and some postal areas with higher proportion of indigenous populations and smaller overall populations. Local SEIFA and local atmospheric conditions were associated with the transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009. The more populated regions displayed consistent and synchronized epidemics with low average transmission rates. The less populated regions had high average transmission rates with more variations during the H1N1 epidemic period. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Epidemic characterization and modeling within herd transmission dynamics of an "emerging trans-boundary" camel disease epidemic in Ethiopia.

PubMed

Megersa, Bekele; Biffa, Demelash; Abunna, Fufa; Regassa, Alemayehu; Bohlin, Jon; Skjerve, Eystein

2012-10-01

A highly acute and contagious camel disease, an epidemic wave of unknown etiology, referred to here as camel sudden death syndrome, has plagued camel population in countries in the Horn of Africa. To better understand its epidemic patterns and transmission dynamics, we used epidemiologic parameters and differential equation deterministic modeling (SEIR/D-model) to predict the outcome likelihood following an exposure of susceptible camel population. Our results showed 45.7, 17.6, and 38.6 % overall morbidity, mortality, and case fatality rates of the epidemic, respectively. Pregnant camels had the highest mortality and case fatality rates, followed by breeding males, and lactating females, implying serious socioeconomic consequences. Disease dynamics appeared to be linked to livestock trade route and animal movements. The epidemic exhibited a strong basic reproductive number (R (0)) with an average of 16 camels infected by one infectious case during the entire infectious period. The epidemic curve suggested that the critical moment of the disease development is approximately between 30 and 40 days, where both infected/exposed and infectious camels are at their highest numbers. The lag between infected/infectious curves indicates a time-shift of approximately 3-5 days from when a camel is infected and until it becomes infectious. According to this predictive model, of all animals exposed to the infection, 66.8 % (n = 868) and 33.2 % (n = 431) had recovered and died, respectively, at the end of epidemic period. Hence, if early measures are not taken, such an epidemic could cause a much more devastative effect, within short period of time than the anticipated proportion.

Transmission of Influenza on International Flights, May 2009

PubMed Central

Foxwell, A. Ruth; Roberts, Leslee; Lokuge, Kamalini

2011-01-01

Understanding the dynamics of influenza transmission on international flights is necessary for prioritizing public health response to pandemic incursions. A retrospective cohort study to ascertain in-flight transmission of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 and influenza-like illness (ILI) was undertaken for 2 long-haul flights entering Australia during May 2009. Combined results, including survey responses from 319 (43%) of 738 passengers, showed that 13 (2%) had an ILI in flight and an ILI developed in 32 (5%) passengers during the first week post arrival. Passengers were at 3.6% increased risk of contracting pandemic (H1N1) 2009 if they sat in the same row as or within 2 rows of persons who were symptomatic preflight. A closer exposed zone (2 seats in front, 2 seats behind, and 2 seats either side) increased the risk for postflight disease to 7.7%. Efficiency of contact tracing without compromising the effectiveness of the public health intervention might be improved by limiting the exposed zone. PMID:21762571

Development of helicopter transmission seals, task 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hayden, T. S.; Keller, C. H., Jr.

1973-01-01

High speed helicopter transmission seal concepts were designed, fabricated and tested. The concepts were a dual element split ring seal and a circumferential seal. The tests were performed in a rig using an actual input quill assembly. The test conditions were selected to simulate transmission operation and were 230 F oil temperature, and a sliding speed of 9400 ft/min. The split ring seal exhibited gross leakage and was considered unsatisfactory, while the circumferential seal leakage was less than 1 c.c./hour; this leakage is within acceptable limits. The circumferential seal wear was only to .0005 inches during a 100 hour run (40 starts and stops). During a 40 hour contamination test (mesh silica flour) the seal total wear was a maximum of .004 inches. This wear is considered acceptable.

The Transmission Dynamics and Control of Cholera in Haiti: An Epidemic Model

PubMed Central

Andrews, Jason R.; Basu, Sanjay

2011-01-01

Background Haiti is experiencing a cholera epidemic. Official epidemic projections, to date, have failed to incorporate existing disease trends or patterns of transmission, while proposed interventions have been debated without comparative estimates of their impact. Methods We designed mathematical models of cholera transmission and fit them to Haiti’s provincial incidence data. We then simulated future epidemic trajectories to estimate the impact of clean water, vaccination and enhanced antibiotic distribution programs. Findings The natural dynamics of cholera are expected to produce a prevalence decline by mid-January 2011. Between March and December 2011, we project 779,000 (95% CI: 599,000–914,000) cases and 11,100 (95% CI: 7,300–17,400) deaths from cholera in Haiti, over half of which would be expected to occur in the Artibonite and Oueste provinces. If contaminated water consumption were reduced by 1% per week, as per current efforts, we expect 105,000 cases (95% CI: 88,000–116,000) and 1,500 (95% CI: 1,100–2,300) deaths to be averted. A plan to vaccinate 10% of the population beginning on March 1 would be predicted to avert 63,000 (95% CI: 48,000–78,000) cases and 900 (95% CI: 600–1,500) deaths over the same period. By contrast, the proposal to extend antibiotic use to all patients with severe dehydration and half of patients with moderate dehydration would be expected to avert 9,000 (95% CI: 8,000–10,000) cases and 1,300 (95% CI: 900–2,000) deaths. Interpretation A decline in cholera prevalence in early 2011 is part of the natural history of the epidemic, and should not be interpreted as reflective of the success of human interventions. Vibrio cholerae in Haiti is expected to produce at least 750,000 cholera cases by November 2011, substantially higher than official estimates currently used for resource allocation. In addition to clean water provision and vaccination, expanded access to antibiotics may avert thousands of deaths. PMID

Optimal packing for cascaded regenerative transmission based on phase sensitive amplifiers.

PubMed

Sorokina, Mariia; Sygletos, Stylianos; Ellis, Andrew D; Turitsyn, Sergei

2013-12-16

We investigate the transmission performance of advanced modulation formats in nonlinear regenerative channels based on cascaded phase sensitive amplifiers. We identify the impact of amplitude and phase noise dynamics along the transmission line and show that after a cascade of regenerators, densely packed single ring PSK constellations outperform multi-ring constellations. The results of this study will greatly simplify the design of future nonlinear regenerative channels for ultra-high capacity transmission.

SSME structural dynamic model development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Foley, M. J.; Tilley, D. M.; Welch, C. T.

1983-01-01

A mathematical model of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) as a complete assembly, with detailed emphasis on LOX and High Fuel Turbopumps is developed. The advantages of both complete engine dynamics, and high fidelity modeling are incorporated. Development of this model, some results, and projected applications are discussed.

Kinetics of liquid-mediated crystallization of amorphous Ge from multi-frame dynamic transmission electron microscopy

DOE PAGES

Santala, M. K.; Raoux, S.; Campbell, G. H.

2015-12-24

The kinetics of laser-induced, liquid-mediated crystallization of amorphous Ge thin films were studied using multi-frame dynamic transmission electron microscopy (DTEM), a nanosecond-scale photo-emission transmission electron microscopy technique. In these experiments, high temperature gradients are established in thin amorphous Ge films with a 12-ns laser pulse with a Gaussian spatial profile. The hottest region at the center of the laser spot crystallizes in ~100 ns and becomes nano-crystalline. Over the next several hundred nanoseconds crystallization continues radially outward from the nano-crystalline region forming elongated grains, some many microns long. The growth rate during the formation of these radial grains is measuredmore » with time-resolved imaging experiments. Crystal growth rates exceed 10 m/s, which are consistent with crystallization mediated by a very thin, undercooled transient liquid layer, rather than a purely solid-state transformation mechanism. The kinetics of this growth mode have been studied in detail under steady-state conditions, but here we provide a detailed study of liquid-mediated growth in high temperature gradients. Unexpectedly, the propagation rate of the crystallization front was observed to remain constant during this growth mode even when passing through large local temperature gradients, in stark contrast to other similar studies that suggested the growth rate changed dramatically. As a result, the high throughput of multi-frame DTEM provides gives a more complete picture of the role of temperature and temperature gradient on laser crystallization than previous DTEM experiments.« less

Kinetics of liquid-mediated crystallization of amorphous Ge from multi-frame dynamic transmission electron microscopy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Santala, M. K., E-mail: melissa.santala@oregonstate.edu; Campbell, G. H.; Raoux, S.

2015-12-21

The kinetics of laser-induced, liquid-mediated crystallization of amorphous Ge thin films were studied using multi-frame dynamic transmission electron microscopy (DTEM), a nanosecond-scale photo-emission transmission electron microscopy technique. In these experiments, high temperature gradients are established in thin amorphous Ge films with a 12-ns laser pulse with a Gaussian spatial profile. The hottest region at the center of the laser spot crystallizes in ∼100 ns and becomes nano-crystalline. Over the next several hundred nanoseconds crystallization continues radially outward from the nano-crystalline region forming elongated grains, some many microns long. The growth rate during the formation of these radial grains is measured withmore » time-resolved imaging experiments. Crystal growth rates exceed 10 m/s, which are consistent with crystallization mediated by a very thin, undercooled transient liquid layer, rather than a purely solid-state transformation mechanism. The kinetics of this growth mode have been studied in detail under steady-state conditions, but here we provide a detailed study of liquid-mediated growth in high temperature gradients. Unexpectedly, the propagation rate of the crystallization front was observed to remain constant during this growth mode even when passing through large local temperature gradients, in stark contrast to other similar studies that suggested the growth rate changed dramatically. The high throughput of multi-frame DTEM provides gives a more complete picture of the role of temperature and temperature gradient on laser crystallization than previous DTEM experiments.« less

Population Dynamics of Staphylococcus aureus in Cystic Fibrosis Patients To Determine Transmission Events by Use of Whole-Genome Sequencing

PubMed Central

Hall, Barry G.

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Strict infection control practices have been implemented for health care visits by cystic fibrosis (CF) patients in an attempt to prevent transmission of important pathogens. This study used whole-genome sequencing (WGS) to determine strain relatedness and assess population dynamics of Staphylococcus aureus isolates from a cohort of CF patients as assessed by strain relatedness. A total of 311 S. aureus isolates were collected from respiratory cultures of 115 CF patients during a 22-month study period. Whole-genome sequencing was performed, and using single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) analysis, phylogenetic trees were assembled to determine relatedness between isolates. Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) phenotypes were predicted using PPFS2 and compared to the observed phenotype. The accumulation of SNPs in multiple isolates obtained over time from the same patient was examined to determine if a genomic molecular clock could be calculated. Pairs of isolates with ≤71 SNP differences were considered to be the “same” strain. All of the “same” strain isolates were either from the same patient or siblings pairs. There were 47 examples of patients being superinfected with an unrelated strain. The predicted MRSA phenotype was accurate in all but three isolates. Mutation rates were unable to be determined because the branching order in the phylogenetic tree was inconsistent with the order of isolation. The observation that transmissions were identified between sibling patients shows that WGS is an effective tool for determining transmission between patients. The observation that transmission only occurred between siblings suggests that Staphylococcus aureus acquisition in our CF population occurred outside the hospital environment and indicates that current infection prevention efforts appear effective. PMID:28446577

Development of Novel Methods for the Reduction of Noise and Weight in Helicopter Transmissions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dimofte, Florin; Keith, Theo G., Jr.

2003-01-01

Over the 70-year evolution of the helicopter, man's understanding of vibration control has greatly increased. However, in spite of the increased performance, the extent of helicopter vibration problems has not significantly diminished. Crew vibration and noise remains important factors in the design of all current helicopters. With more complex and critical demands being placed on aircrews, it is essential that vibration and noise not impair their performance. A major source of helicopter cabin noise (which has been measured at a sound pressure level of over 100 dB) is the gearbox. Reduction of this noise has been a goal of NASA and the U.S. Army. Gear mesh noise is typically in the frequency range of 1000 to 3000 Hz, a range important for speech. A requirement for U.S. Army/NASA Advanced Rotorcraft Transmission project has been a 10-dB reduction compared to current designs. A combined analytical/experimental effort has been underway, since the end of the 80's, to study effects of design parameters on noise production. The noise generated by the gear mesh can be transmitted to the surrounding media through the bearings that support the gear shaft. Therefore, the use of fluid film bearings instead of rolling element bearings could reduce the transmission noise by 10 dB. In addition, the fluid film bearings that support the gear shaft can change the dynamics of the gear assembly by providing damping to the system and by being softer than rolling element bearings. Wave bearings can attenuate, and filter, the noise generated by a machine component due to the dynamic stiffness and damping coefficients. The attenuation ratio could be as large as 35-40 dB. The noise components at higher frequencies than a synchronous frequency can be almost eliminated.

Control and dynamics study for the satellite power system. Volume 1: MPTS/SPS collector dynamic analysis and surface deformation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, S. J.

1980-01-01

The basic dynamic properties and performance characteristics of the microwave power transmission satellite antenna were analyzed in an effort to develop criteria, requirements, and constraints for the control and structure design. The vibrational properties, the surface deformation, and the corresponding scan loss under the influence of disturbances are considered.

Advanced Gas Turbine (AGT) powertrain system development for automotive applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1981-01-01

Compressor development, turbine, combustion, regenerator system, gearbox/transmission, ceramic material and component development, foil gas bearings, bearings and seals, rotor dynamics development, and controls and accessories are discussed.

[Approximation to the dynamics of meningococcal meningitis through dynamic systems and time series].

PubMed

Canals, M

1996-02-01

Meningococcal meningitis is subjected to epidemiological surveillance due to its severity and the occasional presentation of epidemic outbreaks. This work analyses previous disease models, generate new ones and analyses monthly cases using ARIMA time series models. The results show that disease dynamics for closed populations is epidemic and the epidemic size is related to the proportion of carriers and the transmissiveness of the agent. In open populations, disease dynamics depends on the admission rate of susceptible and the relative admission of infected individuals. Our model considers a logistic populational growth and carrier admission proportional to populational size, generating an endemic dynamics. Considering a non-instantaneous system response, a greater realism is obtained establishing that the endemic situation may present a dynamics highly sensitive to initial conditions, depending on the transmissiveness and proportion of susceptible individuals in the population. Time series model showed an adequate predictive capacity in terms no longer than 10 months. The lack of long term predictability was attributed to local changes in the proportion of carriers or on transmissiveness that lead to chaotic dynamics over a seasonal pattern. Predictions for 1995 and 1996 were obtained.

Laser drive development for the APS Dynamic Compression Sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lagrange, Thomas; Swift, Damian; Reed, Bryan; Bernier, Joel; Kumar, Mukul; Hawreliak, James; Eggert, Jon; Dixit, Sham; Collins, Gilbert

2013-06-01

The Dynamic Compression Sector (DCS) at the APS synchrotron offers unprecedented possibilities for x-ray diffraction and scattering measurements in-situ during dynamic loading, including single-shot data collection with x-ray energies high enough (tens of kV) to study high-Z samples in transmission as well as reflection. Dynamic loading induced by laser ablation is an important component of load generation, as the duration, strain rate, and pressure can be controlled via the energy, spot size, and pulse shape. Using radiation hydrodynamics simulations, validated by experiments at several laser facilities, we have investigated the relationship between irradiance history and pressure for ablative loads designed to induce shock and ramp loading in the nanosecond to microsecond range, and including free ablation and also ablation confined by a transparent substrate. We have investigated the effects of lateral release, which constrains the minimum diameter of the focal spot for a given drive duration. In this way, we are able to relate the desired drive conditions to the total laser energy needed, which dictates the laser technologies suitable for a given type of experiment. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Stage-structured transmission of phocine distemper virus in the Dutch 2002 outbreak

PubMed Central

Klepac, Petra; Pomeroy, Laura W.; Bjørnstad, Ottar N.; Kuiken, Thijs; Osterhaus, Albert D.M.E.; Rijks, Jolianne M.

2009-01-01

Heterogeneities in transmission among hosts can be very important in shaping infectious disease dynamics. In mammals with strong social organization, such heterogeneities are often structured by functional stage: juveniles, subadults and adults. We investigate the importance of such stage-related heterogeneities in shaping the 2002 phocine distemper virus (PDV) outbreak in the Dutch Wadden Sea, when more than 40 per cent of the harbour seals were killed. We do this by comparing the statistical fit of a hierarchy of models with varying transmission complexity: homogeneous versus heterogeneous mixing and density- versus frequency-dependent transmission. We use the stranding data as a proxy for incidence and use Poisson likelihoods to estimate the ‘who acquires infection from whom’ (WAIFW) matrix. Statistically, the model with strong heterogeneous mixing and density-dependent transmission was found to best describe the transmission dynamics. However, patterns of incidence support a model of frequency-dependent transmission among adults and juveniles. Based on the maximum-likelihood WAIFW matrix estimates, we use the next-generation formalism to calculate an R0 between 2 and 2.5 for the Dutch 2002 PDV epidemic. PMID:19364743

77 FR 32183 - Transmission Planning and Cost Allocation by Transmission Owning and Operating Public Utilities

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-05-31

... it would not wait for systemic problems to undermine transmission planning before action is taken... that the development of transmission facilities can involve long lead times and complex problems... rather than allowing the problems in transmission planning and cost allocation to continue or to increase...

Predicting optimal transmission investment in malaria parasites

PubMed Central

Greischar, Megan A.; Mideo, Nicole; Read, Andrew F.; Bjørnstad, Ottar N.

2016-01-01

In vertebrate hosts, malaria parasites face a tradeoff between replicating and the production of transmission stages that can be passed onto mosquitoes. This tradeoff is analogous to growth-reproduction tradeoffs in multicellular organisms. We use a mathematical model tailored to the life cycle and dynamics of malaria parasites to identify allocation strategies that maximize cumulative transmission potential to mosquitoes. We show that plastic strategies can substantially outperform fixed allocation because parasites can achieve greater fitness by investing in proliferation early and delaying the production of transmission stages. Parasites should further benefit from restraining transmission investment later in infection, because such a strategy can help maintain parasite numbers in the face of resource depletion. Early allocation decisions are predicted to have the greatest impact on parasite fitness. If the immune response saturates as parasite numbers increase, parasites should benefit from even longer delays prior to transmission investment. The presence of a competing strain selects for consistently lower levels of transmission investment and dramatically increased exploitation of the red blood cell resource. While we provide a detailed analysis of tradeoffs pertaining to malaria life history, our approach for identifying optimal plastic allocation strategies may be broadly applicable. PMID:27271841

Stochastic Models of Emerging Infectious Disease Transmission on Adaptive Random Networks

PubMed Central

Pipatsart, Navavat; Triampo, Wannapong

2017-01-01

We presented adaptive random network models to describe human behavioral change during epidemics and performed stochastic simulations of SIR (susceptible-infectious-recovered) epidemic models on adaptive random networks. The interplay between infectious disease dynamics and network adaptation dynamics was investigated in regard to the disease transmission and the cumulative number of infection cases. We found that the cumulative case was reduced and associated with an increasing network adaptation probability but was increased with an increasing disease transmission probability. It was found that the topological changes of the adaptive random networks were able to reduce the cumulative number of infections and also to delay the epidemic peak. Our results also suggest the existence of a critical value for the ratio of disease transmission and adaptation probabilities below which the epidemic cannot occur. PMID:29075314

Recent developments of the in situ wet cell technology for transmission electron microscopies.

PubMed

Chen, Xin; Li, Chang; Cao, Hongling

2015-03-21

In situ wet cells for transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) allow studying structures and processes in a liquid environment with high temporal and spatial resolutions, and have been attracting increasing research interests in many fields. In this review, we highlight the structural and functional developments of the wet cells for TEM and STEM. One of the key features of the wet cells is the sealing technique used to isolate the liquid sample from the TEM/STEM vacuum environments, thus the existing in situ wet cells are grouped by different sealing methods. In this study, the advantages and shortcomings of each type of in situ wet cells are discussed, the functional developments of different wet cells are presented, and the future trends of the wet cell technology are addressed. It is suggested that in the future the in situ wet cell TEM/STEM technology will have an increasing impact on frontier nanoscale research.

Joint effects of climate variability and socioecological factors on dengue transmission: epidemiological evidence.

PubMed

Akter, Rokeya; Hu, Wenbiao; Naish, Suchithra; Banu, Shahera; Tong, Shilu

2017-06-01

To assess the epidemiological evidence on the joint effects of climate variability and socioecological factors on dengue transmission. Following PRISMA guidelines, a detailed literature search was conducted in PubMed, Web of Science and Scopus. Peer-reviewed, freely available and full-text articles, considering both climate and socioecological factors in relation to dengue, published in English from January 1993 to October 2015 were included in this review. Twenty studies have met the inclusion criteria and assessed the impact of both climatic and socioecological factors on dengue dynamics. Among those, four studies have further investigated the relative importance of climate variability and socioecological factors on dengue transmission. A few studies also developed predictive models including both climatic and socioecological factors. Due to insufficient data, methodological issues and contextual variability of the studies, it is hard to draw conclusion on the joint effects of climate variability and socioecological factors on dengue transmission. Future research should take into account socioecological factors in combination with climate variables for a better understanding of the complex nature of dengue transmission as well as for improving the predictive capability of dengue forecasting models, to develop effective and reliable early warning systems. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Breaking beta: deconstructing the parasite transmission function

PubMed Central

McCallum, Hamish; Fenton, Andy; Hudson, Peter J.; Lee, Brian; Levick, Beth; Norman, Rachel

2017-01-01

Transmission is a fundamental step in the life cycle of every parasite but it is also one of the most challenging processes to model and quantify. In most host–parasite models, the transmission process is encapsulated by a single parameter β. Many different biological processes and interactions, acting on both hosts and infectious organisms, are subsumed in this single term. There are, however, at least two undesirable consequences of this high level of abstraction. First, nonlinearities and heterogeneities that can be critical to the dynamic behaviour of infections are poorly represented; second, estimating the transmission coefficient β from field data is often very difficult. In this paper, we present a conceptual model, which breaks the transmission process into its component parts. This deconstruction enables us to identify circumstances that generate nonlinearities in transmission, with potential implications for emergent transmission behaviour at individual and population scales. Such behaviour cannot be explained by the traditional linear transmission frameworks. The deconstruction also provides a clearer link to the empirical estimation of key components of transmission and enables the construction of flexible models that produce a unified understanding of the spread of both micro- and macro-parasite infectious disease agents. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission’. PMID:28289252

Parasite transmission in a natural multihost-multiparasite community.

PubMed

Auld, Stuart K J R; Searle, Catherine L; Duffy, Meghan A

2017-05-05

Understanding the transmission and dynamics of infectious diseases in natural communities requires understanding the extent to which the ecology, evolution and epidemiology of those diseases are shaped by alternative hosts. We performed laboratory experiments to test how parasite spillover affected traits associated with transmission in two co-occurring parasites: the bacterium Pasteuria ramosa and the fungus Metschnikowia bicuspidata Both parasites were capable of transmission from the reservoir host ( Daphnia dentifera ) to the spillover host ( Ceriodaphnia dubia ), but this occurred at a much higher rate for the fungus than the bacterium. We quantified transmission potential by combining information on parasite transmission and growth rate, and used this to compare parasite fitness in the two host species. For both parasites, transmission potential was lower in the spillover host. For the bacterium, virulence was higher in the spillover host. Transmission back to the original host was high for both parasites, with spillover influencing transmission rate of the fungus but not the bacterium. Thus, while inferior, the spillover host is not a dead-end for either parasite. Overall, our results demonstrate that the presence of multiple hosts in a community can have important consequences for disease transmission, and host and parasite fitness.This article is part of the themed issue 'Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Vector development and vitellogenin determine the transovarial transmission of begomoviruses.

PubMed

Wei, Jing; He, Ya-Zhou; Guo, Qi; Guo, Tao; Liu, Yin-Quan; Zhou, Xue-Ping; Liu, Shu-Sheng; Wang, Xiao-Wei

2017-06-27

The majority of plant viruses are transmitted by insect vectors between hosts, and transovarial transmission of viruses from vector parents to offspring has great significance to their epidemiology. Begomoviruses are transmitted by the whitefly Bemisia tabaci in a circulative manner and are maintained through a plant-insect-plant cycle. Other routes of begomovirus transmission are not clearly known. Here, we report that transovarial transmission from female whiteflies to offspring often happens for one begomovirus, Tomato yellow leaf curl virus (TYLCV), and may have contributed significantly to its global spread. We found that TYLCV entry of the reproductive organ of its vector mainly depended on the developmental stage of the whitefly ovary, and the transovarial transmission of TYLCV to offspring increased with whitefly adult age. The specific interaction between virus coat protein (CP) and whitefly vitellogenin (Vg) was vital for virus entry into whitefly ovary. When knocking down the expression of Vg, the entry of TYLCV into ovary was inhibited and the transovarial transmission efficiency decreased. In contrast, another begomovirus, Papaya leaf curl China virus (PaLCuCNV), CP did not interact with whitefly Vg, and PaLCuCNV could not be transovarially transmitted by whiteflies. We further showed that TYLCV could be maintained for at least two generations in the absence of virus-infected plants, and the adult progenies were able to infect healthy plants in both the laboratory and field. This study reports the transovarial transmission mechanism of begomoviruses, and it may help to explain the evolution and global spread of some begomoviruses.

Thermal and Structural Analysis of Helicopter Transmission Housings Using NASTRAN

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Howells, R. W.; Sciarra, J. J.; Ng, G. S.

1976-01-01

The application of NASTRAN to improve the design of helicopter transmission housings is described. A finite element model of the complete forward rotor transmission housing for the Boeing Vertol CH-47C helicopter was used to study thermal distortion and stress, stress and deflection due to static and dynamic loads, load paths, and design optimization by the control of structural energy distribution. The analytical results are correlated with test data and used to reduce weight and to improve strength, service life, failsafety, and reliability. The techniques presented, although applied herein to helicopter transmissions, are sufficiently general to be applicable to any power transmission system.

Effects of tooth profile modification on dynamic responses of a high speed gear-rotor-bearing system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Zehua; Tang, Jinyuan; Zhong, Jue; Chen, Siyu; Yan, Haiyan

2016-08-01

A finite element node dynamic model of a high speed gear-rotor-bearing system considering the time-varying mesh stiffness, backlash, gyroscopic effect and transmission error excitation is developed. Different tooth profile modifications are introduced into the gear pair and corresponding time-varying mesh stiffness curves are obtained. Effects of the tooth profile modification on mesh stiffness are analyzed, and the natural frequencies and mode shapes of the gear-rotor-bearing transmission system are given. The dynamic responses with respect to a wide input speed region including dynamic factor, vibration amplitude near the bearing and dynamic transmission error are obtained by introducing the time-varying mesh stiffness in different tooth profile modification cases into the gear-rotor-bearing dynamic system. Effects of the tooth profile modification on the dynamic responses are studied in detail. The numerical simulation results show that both the short profile modification and the long profile modification can affect the mutation of the mesh stiffness when the number of engaging tooth pairs changes. A short profile modification with an appropriate modification amount can improve the dynamic property of the system in certain work condition.

Final Report Navajo Transmission Project (NTP)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bennie Hoisington; Steven Begay

2006-09-14

The Diné Power Authority is developing the Navajo Transmission Project (NTP) to relieve the constraints on the transmission of electricity west of the Four Corners area and to improve the operation flexibility and reliability of the extra-high-voltage transmission system in the region. The NTP creates the wholesale transmission capacity for more economical power transfers, sales, and purchases in the region. It will facilitate the development of Navajo energy resources, improve economic conditions on the Navajo Nation as well as allow DPA to participate in the western electrical utility industry.

Advanced Transmission Components Investigation Program. Bearing and Seal Development.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-08-01

STATEMENT The purpose of the program was to evaluate a modified tapered roller bearing component incorporating a VASCO-X2 integral inner race and ribbed...cup for use on the spiral bevel input shaft of an advanced helicopter main transmission. The test results indicated that this bearing concept, with its...in future transmissions. The limited oil-off survivability testing conducted did not produce expected results; however, it shovged that this type of

An SIR-Dengue transmission model with seasonal effects and impulsive control.

PubMed

Páez Chávez, Joseph; Götz, Thomas; Siegmund, Stefan; Wijaya, Karunia Putra

2017-07-01

In recent decades, Dengue fever and its deadly complications, such as Dengue hemorrhagic fever, have become one of the major mosquito-transmitted diseases, with an estimate of 390 million cases occurring annually in over 100 tropical and subtropical countries, most of which belonging to the developing world. Empirical evidence indicates that the most effective mechanism to reduce Dengue infections is to combat the disease-carrying vector, which is often implemented via chemical pesticides to destroy mosquitoes in their adult or larval stages. The present paper considers an SIR epidemiological model describing the vector-to-host and host-to-vector transmission dynamics. The model includes pesticide control represented in terms of periodic impulsive perturbations, as well as seasonal fluctuations of the vector growth and transmission rates of the disease. The effectiveness of the control strategy is studied numerically in detail by means of path-following techniques for non-smooth dynamical systems. Special attention is given to determining the optimal timing of the pesticide applications, in such a way that the number of infections and the required amount of pesticide are minimized. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Finite Element Development of Honeycomb Panel Configurations with Improved Transmission Loss

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grosveld, Ferdinand W.; Palumbo, Daniel L.; Klos, Jacob; Castle, William D.

2006-01-01

The higher stiffness-to-mass ratio of a honeycomb panel compared to a homogeneous panel results in a lower acoustic critical frequency. Above the critical frequency the panel flexural wave speed is acoustically fast and the structure becomes a more efficient radiator with associated lower sound transmission loss. Finite element models of honeycomb sandwich structures are presented featuring areas where the core is removed from the radiating face sheet disrupting the supersonic flexural and shear wave speeds that exist in the baseline honeycomb panel. These modified honeycomb panel structures exhibit improved transmission loss for a pre-defined diffuse field sound excitation. The models were validated by the sound transmission loss of honeycomb panels measured in the Structural Acoustic Loads and Transmission (SALT) facility at the NASA Langley Research Center. A honeycomb core panel configuration is presented exhibiting a transmission loss improvement of 3-11 dB compared to a honeycomb baseline panel over a frequency range from 170 Hz to 1000 Hz. The improved transmission loss panel configuration had a 5.1% increase in mass over the baseline honeycomb panel, and approximately twice the deflection when excited by a static force.

Pellicle transmission uniformity requirements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Thomas L.; Ito, Kunihiro

1998-12-01

Controlling critical dimensions of devices is a constant battle for the photolithography engineer. Current DUV lithographic process exposure latitude is typically 12 to 15% of the total dose. A third of this exposure latitude budget may be used up by a variable related to masking that has not previously received much attention. The emphasis on pellicle transmission has been focused on increasing the average transmission. Much less, attention has been paid to transmission uniformity. This paper explores the total demand on the photospeed latitude budget, the causes of pellicle transmission nonuniformity and examines reasonable expectations for pellicle performance. Modeling is used to examine how the two primary errors in pellicle manufacturing contribute to nonuniformity in transmission. World-class pellicle transmission uniformity standards are discussed and a comparison made between specifications of other components in the photolithographic process. Specifications for other materials or parameters are used as benchmarks to develop a proposed industry standard for pellicle transmission uniformity.

Identifying Nodes of Transmission in Disease Diffusion Through Social Media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamb, David Sebastian

The spread of infectious diseases can be described in terms of three interrelated components: interaction, movement, and scale. Transmission between individuals requires some form of interaction, which is dependent on the pathogen, to occur. Diseases spread through the movement of their hosts; they spread across many spatial scales from local neighborhoods to countries, or temporal scales from days to years, or periodic intervals. Prior research into the spread of disease have examined diffusion processes retrospectively at regional or country levels, or developed differential equation or simulation models of the dynamics of disease transmission. While some of the more recent models incorporate all three components, they are limited in the way they understand where interactions occur. The focus has been on home or work, including contact with family or coworkers. The models reflect a lack of knowledge about how transmissions are made at specific locations in time, so-called nodes of transmission. That is, how individuals' intersections in time and space function in disease transmission. This project sought to use the three factors of interaction, movement, and scale to better understand the spread of disease in terms of the place of interaction called the node of transmission. The overarching objective of this research was: how can nodes of transmission be identified through individual activity spaces incorporating the three factors of infectious disease spread: interaction, movement, and scale?. This objective fed into three main sub-objectives: defining nodes of transmission, developing an appropriate methodology to identifying nodes of transmission, and applying it using geotagged social media data from Twitter. To develop an appropriate framework, this research relied on time geography, and traditional disease. This particularly relied on the idea of bundling to create the nodes, and a nesting effect that integrated scale. The data source used to identify nodes

Dynamic autophagic activity affected the development of thoracic aortic dissection by regulating functional properties of smooth muscle cells

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Yang; Zhao, Zhi-Min; Zhang, Guan-Xin

The aortic medial degeneration is the key histopathologic feature of Thoracic aortic dissection (TAD). The aim of this study was to identify the change of autophagic activity in the aortic wall during TAD development, and to explore the roles of autophagy on regulating functional properties of smooth muscle cells (SMCs). Firstly, compared with control group (n = 11), the increased expression of autophagic markers Beclin1 and LC3 was detected in the aortic wall from TAD group (n = 23) by immunochemistry and western blot. We found that more autophagic vacuoles were present in the aortic wall of TAD patients using Transmission electron microscopy. Next,more » autophagic activity was examined in AD mice model established by β-aminopropionitrile fumarate (BAPN) and angiotensin II. Immunochemistry proved that autophagic activity was dynamically changed during AD development. Beclin1 and LC3 were detected up-regulated in the aortic wall in the second week after BAPN feeding, earlier than the fragmentation or loss of elastic fibers. When AD occurred in the 4th week, the expression of Beclin1 and LC3 began to decrease, but still higher than the control. Furthermore, autophagy was found to inhibit starvation-induced apoptosis of SMCs. Meanwhile, blockage of autophagy could suppress PDGF-induced phenotypic switch of SMCs. Taken together, autophagic activity was dynamically changed in the aortic wall during TAD development. The abnormal autophagy could regulate the functional properties of aortic SMCs, which might be the potential pathogenesis of TAD. - Highlights: • Autophagy is up-regulated in aorta wall from thoracic aorta dissection (TAD) patient. • Autophagic activity is dynamically changed during TAD development. • Dynamically change of autophagy is associated with pathological process of TAD. • Autophagy participate in the development of TAD by regulating function of SMCs.« less

How Stuttering Develops: The Multifactorial Dynamic Pathways Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Anne; Weber, Christine

2017-01-01

Purpose: We advanced a multifactorial, dynamic account of the complex, nonlinear interactions of motor, linguistic, and emotional factors contributing to the development of stuttering. Our purpose here is to update our account as the multifactorial dynamic pathways theory. Method: We review evidence related to how stuttering develops, including…

The global transmission network of HIV-1.

PubMed

Wertheim, Joel O; Leigh Brown, Andrew J; Hepler, N Lance; Mehta, Sanjay R; Richman, Douglas D; Smith, Davey M; Kosakovsky Pond, Sergei L

2014-01-15

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) is pandemic, but its contemporary global transmission network has not been characterized. A better understanding of the properties and dynamics of this network is essential for surveillance, prevention, and eventual eradication of HIV. Here, we apply a simple and computationally efficient network-based approach to all publicly available HIV polymerase sequences in the global database, revealing a contemporary picture of the spread of HIV-1 within and between countries. This approach automatically recovered well-characterized transmission clusters and extended other clusters thought to be contained within a single country across international borders. In addition, previously undescribed transmission clusters were discovered. Together, these clusters represent all known modes of HIV transmission. The extent of international linkage revealed by our comprehensive approach demonstrates the need to consider the global diversity of HIV, even when describing local epidemics. Finally, the speed of this method allows for near-real-time surveillance of the pandemic's progression.

Design and control of a novel two-speed Uninterrupted Mechanical Transmission for electric vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Shengnan; Song, Jian; Song, Haijun; Tai, Yuzhuo; Li, Fei; Sinh Nguyen, Truong

2016-06-01

Conventional all-electric vehicles (EV) adopt single-speed transmission due to its low cost and simple construction. However, with the adoption of this type of driveline system, development of EV technology leads to the growing performance requirements of drive motor. Introducing a multi-speed or two-speed transmission to EV offers the possibility of efficiency improvement of the whole powertrain. This paper presents an innovative two-speed Uninterrupted Mechanical Transmission (UMT), which consists of an epicyclic gearing system, a centrifugal clutch and a brake band, allowing the seamless shifting between two gears. Besides, driver's intention is recognized by the control system which is based on fuzzy logic controller (FLC), utilizing the signals of vehicle velocity and accelerator pedal position. The novel UMT shows better dynamic and comfort performance in compare with the optimized AMT with the same gear ratios. Comparison between the control strategy with recognition of driver intention and the conventional two-parameter gear shifting strategy is presented. And the simulation and analysis of the middle layer of optimal gearshift control algorithm is detailed. The results indicate that the UMT adopting FLC and optimal control method provides a significant improvement of energy efficiency, dynamic performance and shifting comfort for EV.

Analysis of the Effects of Surface Pitting and Wear on the Vibrations of a Gear Transmission System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choy, F. K.; Polyshchuk, V.; Zakrajsek, J. J.; Handschuh, R. F.; Townsend, D. P.

1994-01-01

A comprehensive procedure to simulate and analyze the vibrations in a gear transmission system with surface pitting, 'wear' and partial tooth fracture of the gear teeth is presented. An analytical model was developed where the effects of surface pitting and wear of the gear tooth were simulated by phase and magnitude changes in the gear mesh stiffness. Changes in the gear mesh stiffness were incorporated into each gear-shaft model during the global dynamic simulation of the system. The overall dynamics of the system were evaluated by solving for the transient dynamics of each shaft system simultaneously with the vibration of the gearbox structure. In order to reduce the number of degrees-of-freedom in the system, a modal synthesis procedure was used in the global transient dynamic analysis of the overall transmission system. An FFT procedure was used to transform the averaged time signal into the frequency domain for signature analysis. In addition, the Wigner-Ville distribution was also introduced to examine the gear vibration in the joint time frequency domain for vibration pattern recognition. Experimental results obtained from a gear fatigue test rig at NASA Lewis Research Center were used to evaluate the analytical model.

Parasite transmission in a natural multihost–multiparasite community

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Understanding the transmission and dynamics of infectious diseases in natural communities requires understanding the extent to which the ecology, evolution and epidemiology of those diseases are shaped by alternative hosts. We performed laboratory experiments to test how parasite spillover affected traits associated with transmission in two co-occurring parasites: the bacterium Pasteuria ramosa and the fungus Metschnikowia bicuspidata. Both parasites were capable of transmission from the reservoir host (Daphnia dentifera) to the spillover host (Ceriodaphnia dubia), but this occurred at a much higher rate for the fungus than the bacterium. We quantified transmission potential by combining information on parasite transmission and growth rate, and used this to compare parasite fitness in the two host species. For both parasites, transmission potential was lower in the spillover host. For the bacterium, virulence was higher in the spillover host. Transmission back to the original host was high for both parasites, with spillover influencing transmission rate of the fungus but not the bacterium. Thus, while inferior, the spillover host is not a dead-end for either parasite. Overall, our results demonstrate that the presence of multiple hosts in a community can have important consequences for disease transmission, and host and parasite fitness. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission’. PMID:28289264

Vibration transmission through rolling element bearings in geared rotor system, part 1. Ph.D. Thesis Final Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Singh, Rajendra; Lim, Teik Chin

1989-01-01

A mathematical model is proposed to examine the vibration transmission through rolling element bearings in geared rotor systems. Current bearing models, based on either ideal boundary conditions for the shaft or purely translational stiffness element description, cannot explain how the vibratory motion may be transmitted from the rotating shaft to the casing. This study clarifies this issue qualitatively and quantitatively by developing a comprehensive bearing stiffness matrix of dimension 6 model for the precision rolling element bearings from basic principles. The proposed bearing formulation is extended to analyze the overall geared rotor system dynamics including casing and mounts. The bearing stiffness matrix is included in discrete system models using lumped parameter and/or dynamic finite element techniques. Eigensolution and forced harmonic response due to rotating mass unbalance or kinematic transmission error excitation for a number of examples are computed.

Resource-driven changes to host population stability alter the evolution of virulence and transmission.

PubMed

Hite, Jessica L; Cressler, Clayton E

2018-05-05

What drives the evolution of parasite life-history traits? Recent studies suggest that linking within- and between-host processes can provide key insight into both disease dynamics and parasite evolution. Still, it remains difficult to understand how to pinpoint the critical factors connecting these cross-scale feedbacks, particularly under non-equilibrium conditions; many natural host populations inherently fluctuate and parasites themselves can strongly alter the stability of host populations. Here, we develop a general model framework that mechanistically links resources to parasite evolution across a gradient of stable and unstable conditions. First, we dynamically link resources and between-host processes (host density, stability, transmission) to virulence evolution, using a 'non-nested' model. Then, we consider a 'nested' model where population-level processes (transmission and virulence) depend on resource-driven changes to individual-level (within-host) processes (energetics, immune function, parasite production). Contrary to 'non-nested' model predictions, the 'nested' model reveals complex effects of host population dynamics on parasite evolution, including regions of evolutionary bistability; evolution can push parasites towards strongly or weakly stabilizing strategies. This bistability results from dynamic feedbacks between resource-driven changes to host density, host immune function and parasite production. Together, these results highlight how cross-scale feedbacks can provide key insights into the structuring role of parasites and parasite evolution.This article is part of the theme issue 'Anthropogenic resource subsidies and host-parasite dynamics in wildlife'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Host heterogeneity affects both parasite transmission to and fitness on subsequent hosts

PubMed Central

Young, Kyle A.; Fox, Jordan; Jokela, Jukka

2017-01-01

Infectious disease dynamics depend on the speed, number and fitness of parasites transmitting from infected hosts (‘donors’) to parasite-naive ‘recipients’. Donor heterogeneity likely affects these three parameters, and may arise from variation between donors in traits including: (i) infection load, (ii) resistance, (iii) stage of infection, and (iv) previous experience of transmission. We used the Trinidadian guppy, Poecilia reticulata, and a directly transmitted monogenean ectoparasite, Gyrodactylus turnbulli, to experimentally explore how these sources of donor heterogeneity affect the three transmission parameters. We exposed parasite-naive recipients to donors (infected with a single parasite strain) differing in their infection traits, and found that donor infection traits had diverse and sometimes interactive effects on transmission. First, although transmission speed increased with donor infection load, the relationship was nonlinear. Second, while the number of parasites transmitted generally increased with donor infection load, more resistant donors transmitted more parasites, as did those with previous transmission experience. Finally, parasites transmitting from experienced donors exhibited lower population growth rates on recipients than those from inexperienced donors. Stage of infection had little effect on transmission parameters. These results suggest that a more holistic consideration of within-host processes will improve our understanding of between-host transmission and hence disease dynamics. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission’. PMID:28289260

Dynamical Systems Approaches to Emotional Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Camras, Linda A.; Witherington, David C.

2005-01-01

Within the last 20 years, transitions in the conceptualization of emotion and its development have given rise to calls for an explanatory framework that captures emotional development in all its organizational complexity and variability. Recent attempts have been made to couch emotional development in terms of a dynamical systems approach through…

An agent-based model of tsetse fly response to seasonal climatic drivers: Assessing the impact on sleeping sickness transmission rates.

PubMed

Alderton, Simon; Macleod, Ewan T; Anderson, Neil E; Palmer, Gwen; Machila, Noreen; Simuunza, Martin; Welburn, Susan C; Atkinson, Peter M

2018-02-01

This paper presents the development of an agent-based model (ABM) to incorporate climatic drivers which affect tsetse fly (G. m. morsitans) population dynamics, and ultimately disease transmission. The model was used to gain a greater understanding of how tsetse populations fluctuate seasonally, and investigate any response observed in Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense human African trypanosomiasis (rHAT) disease transmission, with a view to gaining a greater understanding of disease dynamics. Such an understanding is essential for the development of appropriate, well-targeted mitigation strategies in the future. The ABM was developed to model rHAT incidence at a fine spatial scale along a 75 km transect in the Luangwa Valley, Zambia. The model incorporates climatic factors that affect pupal mortality, pupal development, birth rate, and death rate. In combination with fine scale demographic data such as ethnicity, age and gender for the human population in the region, as well as an animal census and a sample of daily routines, we create a detailed, plausible simulation model to explore tsetse population and disease transmission dynamics. The seasonally-driven model suggests that the number of infections reported annually in the simulation is likely to be a reasonable representation of reality, taking into account the high levels of under-detection observed. Similar infection rates were observed in human (0.355 per 1000 person-years (SE = 0.013)), and cattle (0.281 per 1000 cattle-years (SE = 0.025)) populations, likely due to the sparsity of cattle close to the tsetse interface. The model suggests that immigrant tribes and school children are at greatest risk of infection, a result that derives from the bottom-up nature of the ABM and conditioning on multiple constraints. This result could not be inferred using alternative population-level modelling approaches. In producing a model which models the tsetse population at a very fine resolution, we were able to analyse

Transmission eigenvalues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cakoni, Fioralba; Haddar, Houssem

2013-10-01

In inverse scattering theory, transmission eigenvalues can be seen as the extension of the notion of resonant frequencies for impenetrable objects to the case of penetrable dielectrics. The transmission eigenvalue problem is a relatively late arrival to the spectral theory of partial differential equations. Its first appearance was in 1986 in a paper by Kirsch who was investigating the denseness of far-field patterns for scattering solutions of the Helmholtz equation or, in more modern terminology, the injectivity of the far-field operator [1]. The paper of Kirsch was soon followed by a more systematic study by Colton and Monk in the context of developing the dual space method for solving the inverse scattering problem for acoustic waves in an inhomogeneous medium [2]. In this paper they showed that for a spherically stratified media transmission eigenvalues existed and formed a discrete set. Numerical examples were also given showing that in principle transmission eigenvalues could be determined from the far-field data. This first period of interest in transmission eigenvalues was concluded with papers by Colton et al in 1989 [3] and Rynne and Sleeman in 1991 [4] showing that for an inhomogeneous medium (not necessarily spherically stratified) transmission eigenvalues, if they existed, formed a discrete set. For the next seventeen years transmission eigenvalues were ignored. This was mainly due to the fact that, with the introduction of various sampling methods to determine the shape of an inhomogeneous medium from far-field data, transmission eigenvalues were something to be avoided and hence the fact that transmission eigenvalues formed at most a discrete set was deemed to be sufficient. In addition, questions related to the existence of transmission eigenvalues or the structure of associated eigenvectors were recognized as being particularly difficult due to the nonlinearity of the eigenvalue problem and the special structure of the associated transmission

Detailed Knowledge About HIV Epidemiology and Transmission Dynamics and Their Associations With Preventive and Risk Behaviors Among Gay, Bisexual, and Other Men Who Have Sex With Men in the United States

PubMed Central

Sullivan, Stephen P; Stephenson, Rob B

2017-01-01

Background Gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM) in the United States remain disproportionately affected by human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Yet their testing frequency is suboptimal and condomless anal sex (CAS) is increasing. Behavioral theories posit that information about HIV is a pivotal construct in individual risk reduction. However, measurements of knowledge have traditionally focused on ever hearing about HIV and being aware of the most common routes of spread. Objective Using a national Web-based sample of sexually active GBMSM, we sought to (1) quantify levels of detailed knowledge about HIV epidemiology and transmission dynamics, (2) describe variations in detailed knowledge levels across demographic strata, and (3) evaluate potential associations of increasing levels of detailed knowledge with HIV testing in the past year and engaging in CAS with a male partner in the past 3 months. Methods GBMSM were recruited through a social networking website (Facebook) from August to September 2015 and asked 17 knowledge-based questions pertaining to the following 2 domains using a Web-based survey: HIV epidemiology (9 questions including statistics on incidence, prevalence, and distribution) and HIV transmission dynamics (8 questions including modes of spread and per-act transmission probabilities). Ordinal domain-specific indices of detailed knowledge were created for each respondent by summing their number of correct responses. Separate cumulative logit models were used to identify factors independently associated with each index, and multivariable logistic regression models were used to characterize associations with HIV testing history and recently engaging in CAS. Results Of the 1064 participants in our study, only half (49.62%, 528/1064) had been tested for HIV in the past year, and almost half (47.84%, 509/1064) had engaged in CAS with a male partner in the past 3 months. Majority scored 3 of 9 epidemiology questions correct (26

Transmission Planning Analysis Tool

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

2015-06-23

Developed to solve specific problem: Assist transmission planning for regional transfers in interconnected power systems. This work was originated in a study for the U.S. Department of State, to recommend transmission reinforcements for the Central American regional system that interconnects 6 countries. Transmission planning analysis is currently performed by engineers with domainspecific and systemspecific knowledge without a unique methodology. The software codes of this disclosure assists engineers by defining systematic analysis procedures to help identify weak points and make decisions on transmission planning of regional interconnected power systems. Transmission Planning Analysis Tool groups PSS/E results of multiple AC contingency analysismore » and voltage stability analysis and QV analysis of many scenarios of study and arrange them in a systematic way to aid power system planning engineers or transmission operators in effective decision]making process or in the off]line study environment.« less

A Theoretical Approach to Understanding Population Dynamics with Seasonal Developmental Durations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lou, Yijun; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

2017-04-01

There is a growing body of biological investigations to understand impacts of seasonally changing environmental conditions on population dynamics in various research fields such as single population growth and disease transmission. On the other side, understanding the population dynamics subject to seasonally changing weather conditions plays a fundamental role in predicting the trends of population patterns and disease transmission risks under the scenarios of climate change. With the host-macroparasite interaction as a motivating example, we propose a synthesized approach for investigating the population dynamics subject to seasonal environmental variations from theoretical point of view, where the model development, basic reproduction ratio formulation and computation, and rigorous mathematical analysis are involved. The resultant model with periodic delay presents a novel term related to the rate of change of the developmental duration, bringing new challenges to dynamics analysis. By investigating a periodic semiflow on a suitably chosen phase space, the global dynamics of a threshold type is established: all solutions either go to zero when basic reproduction ratio is less than one, or stabilize at a positive periodic state when the reproduction ratio is greater than one. The synthesized approach developed here is applicable to broader contexts of investigating biological systems with seasonal developmental durations.

Economics, cultural transmission, and the dynamics of the sex ratio at birth in China.

PubMed

Lipatov, Mikhail; Li, Shuzhuo; Feldman, Marcus W

2008-12-09

In rural China, the ratio of newborn boys to newborn girls [sex ratio at birth (SRB)] has been rising for several decades, to values significantly above its biological norm. This trend has a number of alarming societal consequences, and has attracted the attention of scholars and politicians. The root of the problem lies in a 2,500-year-old culture of son preference. This culture is intricately linked with the economic reality of each couple's life, so that there are financial and psychological repercussions to parents who have no sons. To bring greater clarity and understanding to this issue, we present a quantitative framework that describes the interaction between economics and cultural transmission. We start with an explicit mechanism by which economic incentives can change cultural beliefs of a given individual, and go on to include a mechanism of cultural inheritance from generation to generation. We then show how economic conditions can affect the dynamics of cultural change in an entire society, and may lead to a decrease in the country's sex ratio at birth.

Economics, cultural transmission, and the dynamics of the sex ratio at birth in China

PubMed Central

Lipatov, Mikhail; Li, Shuzhuo; Feldman, Marcus W.

2008-01-01

In rural China, the ratio of newborn boys to newborn girls [sex ratio at birth (SRB)] has been rising for several decades, to values significantly above its biological norm. This trend has a number of alarming societal consequences, and has attracted the attention of scholars and politicians. The root of the problem lies in a 2,500-year-old culture of son preference. This culture is intricately linked with the economic reality of each couple's life, so that there are financial and psychological repercussions to parents who have no sons. To bring greater clarity and understanding to this issue, we present a quantitative framework that describes the interaction between economics and cultural transmission. We start with an explicit mechanism by which economic incentives can change cultural beliefs of a given individual, and go on to include a mechanism of cultural inheritance from generation to generation. We then show how economic conditions can affect the dynamics of cultural change in an entire society, and may lead to a decrease in the country's sex ratio at birth. PMID:19047641

Development of Laser Beam Transmission Strategies for Future Ground-to-Space Optical Communications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Keith E.; Kovalik, Joseph M.; Biswas, Abhijit; Roberts, William T.

2007-01-01

Optical communications is a key technology to meet the bandwidth expansion required in the global information grid. High bandwidth bi-directional links between sub-orbital platforms and ground and space terminals can provide a seamless interconnectivity for rapid return of critical data to analysts. The JPL Optical Communications Telescope Laboratory (OCTL) is located in Wrightwood California at an altitude of 2.2.km. This 200 sq-m facility houses a state-of- the-art 1-m telescope and is used to develop operational strategies for ground-to-space laser beam propagation that include safe beam transmission through navigable air space, adaptive optics correction and multi-beam scintillation mitigation, and line of sight optical attenuation monitoring. JPL has received authorization from international satellite owners to transmit laser beams to more than twenty retro-reflecting satellites. This paper presents recent progress in the development of these operational strategies tested by narrow laser beam transmissions from the OCTL to retro-reflecting satellites. We present experimental results and compare our measurements with predicted performance for a variety of atmospheric conditions.

DPSK-3ASK transmission optimization by adapting modulation levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eiselt, Michael H.; Teipen, Brian T.

2008-11-01

For metro and regional 100-Gbps transmission, a transparent channel reach of 500-600 km is required and a 100-GHz channel grid is typically used. For these applications, a cost effective modulation format is introduced which can make use of electronic components designed for the already established 40-Gbps market, bypassing the requirements for novel electronic developments and therefore reducing the component cost. With this DPSK-3ASK modulation format, five information bits are transmitted in two consecutive symbols, leading to a symbol rate of 45 Gbaud, including overhead for framing and FEC. To minimize hardware requirements and to create a cost-effective solution, a single Mach-Zehnder modulator can be used to create the optical DPSK-3ASK signal after combining the phase and amplitude modulation signals into a 6-level modulator drive voltage. In this paper, it is demonstrated by numerical simulations that these voltage levels can be modified to adapt to varying signal distortions and thereby yield improved transmission performance. It is shown that by dynamically modifying the modulation levels based on the channel performance, dynamic signal impairments such as the non-linear effects from varying power levels, changes in chromatic dispersion, or varying PMD levels can be mitigated. Error-free performance (with FEC) can be obtained with 24 dB OSNR and 7ps DGD for a 112-Gbps (45-Gbaud) optical signal.

Evolutionary suicide through a non-catastrophic bifurcation: adaptive dynamics of pathogens with frequency-dependent transmission.

PubMed

Boldin, Barbara; Kisdi, Éva

2016-03-01

Evolutionary suicide is a riveting phenomenon in which adaptive evolution drives a viable population to extinction. Gyllenberg and Parvinen (Bull Math Biol 63(5):981-993, 2001) showed that, in a wide class of deterministic population models, a discontinuous transition to extinction is a necessary condition for evolutionary suicide. An implicit assumption of their proof is that the invasion fitness of a rare strategy is well-defined also in the extinction state of the population. Epidemic models with frequency-dependent incidence, which are often used to model the spread of sexually transmitted infections or the dynamics of infectious diseases within herds, violate this assumption. In these models, evolutionary suicide can occur through a non-catastrophic bifurcation whereby pathogen adaptation leads to a continuous decline of host (and consequently pathogen) population size to zero. Evolutionary suicide of pathogens with frequency-dependent transmission can occur in two ways, with pathogen strains evolving either higher or lower virulence.

The dynamic development of gender variability.

PubMed

Fausto-Sterling, Anne

2012-01-01

We diagram and discuss theories of gender identity development espoused by the clinical groups represented in this special issue. We contend that theories of origin relate importantly to clinical practice, and argue that the existing clinical theories are under-developed. Therefore, we develop a dynamic systems framework for gender identity development. Specifically, we suggest that critical aspects of presymbolic gender embodiment occur during infancy as part of the synchronous interplay of caregiver-infant dyads. By 18 months, a transition to symbolic representation and the beginning of an internalization of a sense of gender can be detected and consolidation is quite evident by 3 years of age. We conclude by suggesting empirical studies that could expand and test this framework. With the belief that better, more explicit developmental theory can improve clinical practice, we urge that clinicians take a dynamic developmental view of gender identity formation into account.

ACHP | Energy Development, Transmission, and Historic Preservation

Science.gov Websites

review process established in Section 106 of the National Historic Preservation Act (NHPA), when applied review process established in Section 106 of the NHPA. Federal agencies reviewing or approving these regarding Coordination in Federal Agency Review of Electric Transmission Facilities on Federal Land Gateway

Advanced Rotorcraft Transmission (ART) program summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krantz, T. L.; Kish, J. G.

1992-01-01

The Advanced Rotorcraft Transmission (ART) Program was initiated to advance the state of the art for rotorcraft transmissions. The goal of the ART Program was to develop and demonstrate the technologies needed to reduce transmission weight by 25 pct. and reduce noise by 10 dB while obtaining a 5000 hr 'mean time between failure'. The research done under the ART Program is summarized. A split path design was selected as best able to meet the program goals. Key part technologies needed for this design were identified, studied, and developed. Two of these technologies are discussed in detail: the load sharing of split path designs including the use of a compliant elastomeric torque splitter and the application of a high ratio, low pitch line velocity gear mesh. Development of an angular contact spherical roller bearing, transmission error analysis, and fretting fatigue testing are discussed. The technologies for a light weight, quiet, and reliable rotorcraft transmission were demonstrated.

Contributions from the silent majority dominate dengue virus transmission

PubMed Central

Duong, Veasna; Althouse, Benjamin M.; Lloyd, Alun L.; Waller, Lance A.; Morrison, Amy C.; Kitron, Uriel

2018-01-01

Despite estimates that, each year, as many as 300 million dengue virus (DENV) infections result in either no perceptible symptoms (asymptomatic) or symptoms that are sufficiently mild to go undetected by surveillance systems (inapparent), it has been assumed that these infections contribute little to onward transmission. However, recent blood-feeding experiments with Aedes aegypti mosquitoes showed that people with asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic DENV infections are capable of infecting mosquitoes. To place those findings into context, we used models of within-host viral dynamics and human demographic projections to (1) quantify the net infectiousness of individuals across the spectrum of DENV infection severity and (2) estimate the fraction of transmission attributable to people with different severities of disease. Our results indicate that net infectiousness of people with asymptomatic infections is 80% (median) that of people with apparent or inapparent symptomatic infections (95% credible interval (CI): 0–146%). Due to their numerical prominence in the infectious reservoir, clinically inapparent infections in total could account for 84% (CI: 82–86%) of DENV transmission. Of infections that ultimately result in any level of symptoms, we estimate that 24% (95% CI: 0–79%) of onward transmission results from mosquitoes biting individuals during the pre-symptomatic phase of their infection. Only 1% (95% CI: 0.8–1.1%) of DENV transmission is attributable to people with clinically detected infections after they have developed symptoms. These findings emphasize the need to (1) reorient current practices for outbreak response to adoption of pre-emptive strategies that account for contributions of undetected infections and (2) apply methodologies that account for undetected infections in surveillance programs, when assessing intervention impact, and when modeling mosquito-borne virus transmission. PMID:29723307

Vectors and transmission dynamics for Setaria tundra (Filarioidea; Onchocercidae), a parasite of reindeer in Finland

PubMed Central

Laaksonen, Sauli; Solismaa, Milla; Kortet, Raine; Kuusela, Jussi; Oksanen, Antti

2009-01-01

Background Recent studies have revealed expansion by an array of Filarioid nematodes' into the northern boreal region of Finland. The vector-borne nematode, Setaria tundra, caused a serious disease outbreak in the Finnish reindeer population in 2003–05. The main aim of this study was to understand the outbreak dynamics and the rapid expansion of S. tundra in the sub arctic. We describe the vectors of S. tundra, and its development in vectors, for the first time. Finally we discuss the results in the context of the host-parasite ecology of S. tundra in Finland Results Development of S. tundra to the infective stage occurs in mosquitoes, (genera Aedes and Anopheles). We consider Aedes spp. the most important vectors. The prevalence of S. tundra naturally infected mosquitoes from Finland varied from 0.5 to 2.5%. The rate of development in mosquitoes was temperature-dependent. Infective larvae were present approximately 14 days after a blood meal in mosquitoes maintained at room temperature (mean 21 C), but did not develop in mosquitoes maintained outside for 22 days at a mean temperature of 14.1 C. The third-stage (infective) larvae were elongated (mean length 1411 μm (SD 207), and width 28 μm (SD 2)). The anterior end was blunt, and bore two liplike structures, the posterior end slight tapering with a prominent terminal papilla. Infective larvae were distributed anteriorly in the insect's body, the highest abundance being 70 larvae in one mosquito. A questionnaire survey revealed that the peak activity of Culicidae in the reindeer herding areas of Finland was from the middle of June to the end of July and that warm summer weather was associated with reindeer flocking behaviour on mosquito-rich wetlands. Conclusion In the present work, S. tundra vectors and larval development were identified and described for the first time. Aedes spp. mosquitoes likely serve as the most important and competent vectors for S. tundra in Finland. Warm summers apparently promote

Contributions of Dynamic Systems Theory to Cognitive Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Spencer, John P.; Austin, Andrew; Schutte, Anne R.

2012-01-01

We examine the contributions of dynamic systems theory to the field of cognitive development, focusing on modeling using dynamic neural fields. After introducing central concepts of dynamic field theory (DFT), we probe empirical predictions and findings around two examples--the DFT of infant perseverative reaching that explains Piaget's A-not-B…

Microglial Dynamics During Human Brain Development

PubMed Central

Menassa, David A.; Gomez-Nicola, Diego

2018-01-01

Microglial cells are thought to colonize the human cerebrum between the 4th and 24th gestational weeks. Rodent studies have demonstrated that these cells originate from yolk sac progenitors though it is not clear whether this directly pertains to human development. Our understanding of microglial cell dynamics in the developing human brain comes mostly from postmortem studies demonstrating that the beginning of microglial colonization precedes the appearance of the vasculature, the blood–brain barrier, astrogliogenesis, oligodendrogenesis, neurogenesis, migration, and myelination of the various brain areas. Furthermore, migrating microglial populations cluster by morphology and express differential markers within the developing brain and according to developmental age. With the advent of novel technologies such as RNA-sequencing in fresh human tissue, we are beginning to identify the molecular features of the adult microglial signature. However, this is may not extend to the much more dynamic and rapidly changing antenatal microglial population and this is further complicated by the scarcity of tissue resources. In this brief review, we first describe the various historic schools of thought that had debated the origin of microglial cells while examining the evidence supporting the various theories. We then proceed to examine the evidence we have accumulated on microglial dynamics in the developing human brain, present evidence from rodent studies on the functional role of microglia during development and finally identify limitations for the used approaches in human studies and highlight under investigated questions. PMID:29881376

The Midland fiber-optic analog transmission system development project (FATS)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baumgart, J.S.; Anaya, R.; Morris, G.

1988-07-01

This report was written to document the overall effort related to the development and testing of the various components comprising the fiber optic analog transmission system (FATS) and to the validation of the FATS itself. The overall project was approached as a joint effort between the Los Alamos National Laboratory; the Atomic Weapons Research Establishment (AWRE); and EGandG Energy Measurements. The ultimate goal of the project was to develop a system, based on laser diodes and a streak camera system, to measure alpha. Although the FATS was not fielded on the MIDLAND event, in the course of the project wemore » did in fact answer technology questions identified on previous experiments and develop a better understanding of system needs. We hope that the information contained in this report will provide a basis for planning future experiments, as well as defining the direction for additional laboratory measurements. 94 figs.« less

Incorporating individual health-protective decisions into disease transmission models: a mathematical framework.

PubMed

Durham, David P; Casman, Elizabeth A

2012-03-07

It is anticipated that the next generation of computational epidemic models will simulate both infectious disease transmission and dynamic human behaviour change. Individual agents within a simulation will not only infect one another, but will also have situational awareness and a decision algorithm that enables them to modify their behaviour. This paper develops such a model of behavioural response, presenting a mathematical interpretation of a well-known psychological model of individual decision making, the health belief model, suitable for incorporation within an agent-based disease-transmission model. We formalize the health belief model and demonstrate its application in modelling the prevalence of facemask use observed over the course of the 2003 Hong Kong SARS epidemic, a well-documented example of behaviour change in response to a disease outbreak.

Incorporating individual health-protective decisions into disease transmission models: a mathematical framework

PubMed Central

Durham, David P.; Casman, Elizabeth A.

2012-01-01

It is anticipated that the next generation of computational epidemic models will simulate both infectious disease transmission and dynamic human behaviour change. Individual agents within a simulation will not only infect one another, but will also have situational awareness and a decision algorithm that enables them to modify their behaviour. This paper develops such a model of behavioural response, presenting a mathematical interpretation of a well-known psychological model of individual decision making, the health belief model, suitable for incorporation within an agent-based disease-transmission model. We formalize the health belief model and demonstrate its application in modelling the prevalence of facemask use observed over the course of the 2003 Hong Kong SARS epidemic, a well-documented example of behaviour change in response to a disease outbreak. PMID:21775324

Two-dimensional solitary waves and periodic waves on coupled nonlinear electrical transmission lines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Heng; Zheng, Shuhua

2017-06-01

By using the dynamical system approach, the exact travelling wave solutions for a system of coupled nonlinear electrical transmission lines are studied. Based on this method, the bifurcations of phase portraits of a dynamical system are given. The two-dimensional solitary wave solutions and periodic wave solutions on coupled nonlinear transmission lines are obtained. With the aid of Maple, the numerical simulations are conducted for solitary wave solutions and periodic wave solutions to the model equation. The results presented in this paper improve upon previous studies.

Development of a PLC modem for data transmission over a PWM power supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Batard, Christophe; Ginot, Nicolas; Mannah, Marc Anthony; Millet, Christophe; Poitiers, Frédéric

2014-04-01

In variable-speed electrical drive and online conditioning monitoring, a feedback loop is required in order to transmit the sensor information from the motor to the controller close to the inverter. Additional cabling is used for signalling. This extra cabling has a significant cost and data transmission may not be reliable. Thus, the use of power line communication (PLC) technology to transmit data in motor drive application is quite interesting. The use of a PLC modem dedicated to the home network in a three-phase inverter-fed motor power cable does not work. Therefore, specific coupling interfaces are developed to transmit data through a pulse-width modulated power supply. Laboratory tests have shown that the couplers are operating properly. They ensure reliable data transmission in a motor drive application.

Development of Live-working Robot for Power Transmission Lines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Yu; Liu, Xiaqing; Ren, Chengxian; Li, Jinliang; Li, Hui

2017-07-01

Dream-I, the first reconfigurable live-working robot for power transmission lines successfully developed in China, has the functions of autonomous walking on lines and accurately positioning. This paper firstly described operation task and object of the robot; then designed a general platform, an insulator replacement end and a drainage plate bolt fastening end of the robot, presented a control system of the robot, and performed simulation analysis on operation plan of the robot; and finally completed electrical field withstand voltage tests in a high voltage hall as well as online test and trial on actual lines. Experimental results show that by replacing ends of manipulators, the robot can fulfill operation tasks of live replacement of suspension insulators and live drainage plate bolt fastening.

Contributions of Dynamic Systems Theory to Cognitive Development

PubMed Central

Spencer, John P.; Austin, Andrew; Schutte, Anne R.

2015-01-01

This paper examines the contributions of dynamic systems theory to the field of cognitive development, focusing on modeling using dynamic neural fields. A brief overview highlights the contributions of dynamic systems theory and the central concepts of dynamic field theory (DFT). We then probe empirical predictions and findings generated by DFT around two examples—the DFT of infant perseverative reaching that explains the Piagetian A-not-B error, and the DFT of spatial memory that explain changes in spatial cognition in early development. A systematic review of the literature around these examples reveals that computational modeling is having an impact on empirical research in cognitive development; however, this impact does not extend to neural and clinical research. Moreover, there is a tendency for researchers to interpret models narrowly, anchoring them to specific tasks. We conclude on an optimistic note, encouraging both theoreticians and experimentalists to work toward a more theory-driven future. PMID:26052181

Power transmission cable development for the Space Station Freedom electrical power system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmitz, Gregory V.; Biess, John J.

1989-01-01

Power transmission cable is presently being evaluated under a NASA Lewis Research Center advanced development contract for application in the Space Station Freedom (SSF) electrical power system (EPS). Evaluation testing has been performed by TRW and NASA Lewis Research Center. The results of this development contract are presented. The primary cable design goals are to provide (1) a low characteristic inductance to minimize line voltage drop at 20 kHz, (2) electromagnetic compatibility control of the 20-kHz ac power current, (3) a physical configuration that minimizes ac resistance and (4) release of trapped air for corona-free operation.

Staphylococcus aureus infections: transmission within households and the community

PubMed Central

Knox, Justin; Uhlemann, Anne-Catrin; Lowy, Franklin D.

2015-01-01

Staphylococcus aureus , both methicillin susceptible and resistant, are now major community-based pathogens worldwide. The basis for this is multifactorial and includes the emergence of epidemic clones with enhanced virulence, antibiotic resistance, colonization potential, or transmissibility. Household reservoirs of these unique strains are crucial to their success as community-based pathogens. Staphylococci become resident in households, either as colonizers or environmental contaminants, increasing the risk for recurrent infections. Interactions of household members with others in different households or at community sites including schools and daycare facilities play a critical role in the ability of these strains to become endemic. Colonization density at these sites appears to play an important role in facilitating transmission. The integration of research tools including whole genome sequencing, mathematical modeling and social network analysis have provided additional insight into the transmission dynamics of these strains. Thus far, interventions designed to reduce recurrent infections among household members have had limited success, likely due to the multiplicity of potential sources for recolonization. The development of better strategies to reduce the number of household-based infections will depend on greater insight into the different factors that contribute to the success of these uniquely successful epidemic clones of S. aureus. PMID:25864883

Cost-effectiveness of vaccination with a quadrivalent HPV vaccine in Germany using a dynamic transmission model

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Introduction Persistent infections with human papillomavirus (HPV) are a necessary cause of cervical cancer and are responsible for important morbidity in men and women. Since 2007, HPV vaccination has been recommended and funded for all girls aged 12 to 17 in Germany. A previously published cost-effectiveness analysis, using a static model, showed that a quadrivalent HPV vaccination programme for 12-year-old girls in Germany would be cost effective. Here we present the results from a dynamic transmission model that can be used to evaluate the impact and cost-effectiveness of different vaccination schemas. Methods We adapted a HPV dynamic transmission model, which has been used in other countries, to the German context. The model was used to compare a cervical cancer screening only strategy with a strategy of combining vaccination of females aged 12–17 years old and cervical cancer screening, based on the current recommendations in Germany. In addition, the impact of increasing vaccination coverage in this cohort of females aged 12–17 years old was evaluated in sensitivity analysis. Results The results from this analysis show that the current quadrivalent HPV vaccination programme of females ages 12 to 17 in Germany is cost-effective with an ICER of 5,525€/QALY (quality adjusted life year). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) increased to 10,293€/QALY when the vaccine effects on HPV6/11 diseases were excluded. At steady state, the model predicted that vaccinating girls aged 12 to 17 could reduce the number of HPV 6/11/16/18-related cervical cancers by 65% and genital warts among women and men by 70% and 48%, respectively. The impact on HPV-related disease incidence and costs avoided would occur relatively soon after initiating the vaccine programme, with much of the early impact being due to the prevention of HPV6/11-related genital warts. Conclusions These results show that the current quadrivalent HPV vaccination and cervical cancer screening

Cost-effectiveness of vaccination with a quadrivalent HPV vaccine in Germany using a dynamic transmission model.

PubMed

Schobert, Deniz; Remy, Vanessa; Schoeffski, Oliver

2012-09-25

Persistent infections with human papillomavirus (HPV) are a necessary cause of cervical cancer and are responsible for important morbidity in men and women. Since 2007, HPV vaccination has been recommended and funded for all girls aged 12 to 17 in Germany. A previously published cost-effectiveness analysis, using a static model, showed that a quadrivalent HPV vaccination programme for 12-year-old girls in Germany would be cost effective. Here we present the results from a dynamic transmission model that can be used to evaluate the impact and cost-effectiveness of different vaccination schemas. We adapted a HPV dynamic transmission model, which has been used in other countries, to the German context. The model was used to compare a cervical cancer screening only strategy with a strategy of combining vaccination of females aged 12-17 years old and cervical cancer screening, based on the current recommendations in Germany. In addition, the impact of increasing vaccination coverage in this cohort of females aged 12-17 years old was evaluated in sensitivity analysis. The results from this analysis show that the current quadrivalent HPV vaccination programme of females ages 12 to 17 in Germany is cost-effective with an ICER of 5,525€/QALY (quality adjusted life year). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) increased to 10,293€/QALY when the vaccine effects on HPV6/11 diseases were excluded. At steady state, the model predicted that vaccinating girls aged 12 to 17 could reduce the number of HPV 6/11/16/18-related cervical cancers by 65% and genital warts among women and men by 70% and 48%, respectively. The impact on HPV-related disease incidence and costs avoided would occur relatively soon after initiating the vaccine programme, with much of the early impact being due to the prevention of HPV6/11-related genital warts. These results show that the current quadrivalent HPV vaccination and cervical cancer screening programmes in Germany will substantially

Timing and Order of Transmission Events Is Not Directly Reflected in a Pathogen Phylogeny

PubMed Central

Romero-Severson, Ethan; Skar, Helena; Bulla, Ingo; Albert, Jan; Leitner, Thomas

2014-01-01

Pathogen phylogenies are often used to infer spread among hosts. There is, however, not an exact match between the pathogen phylogeny and the host transmission history. Here, we examine in detail the limitations of this relationship. First, all splits in a pathogen phylogeny of more than 1 host occur within hosts, not at the moment of transmission, predating the transmission events as described by the pretransmission interval. Second, the order in which nodes in a phylogeny occur may be reflective of the within-host dynamics rather than epidemiologic relationships. To investigate these phenomena, motivated by within-host diversity patterns, we developed a two-phase coalescent model that includes a transmission bottleneck followed by linear outgrowth to a maximum population size followed by either stabilization or decline of the population. The model predicts that the pretransmission interval shrinks compared with predictions based on constant population size or a simple transmission bottleneck. Because lineages coalesce faster in a small population, the probability of a pathogen phylogeny to resemble the transmission history depends on when after infection a donor transmits to a new host. We also show that the probability of inferring the incorrect order of multiple transmissions from the same host is high. Finally, we compare time of HIV-1 infection informed by genetic distances in phylogenies to independent biomarker data, and show that, indeed, the pretransmission interval biases phylogeny-based estimates of when transmissions occurred. We describe situations where caution is needed not to misinterpret which parts of a phylogeny that may indicate outbreaks and tight transmission clusters. PMID:24874208

Red alder stand development and dynamics.

Treesearch

R.L. Deal

2006-01-01

This paper synthesizes information on the development of natural pure red alder stands and dynamics of mixed alder-conifer stands. Early research on red alder growth and yield focused on developing stand volume and normal yield. tables for alder in the Pacific Northwest. Recent site-index estimation and height-growth curves were developed on a 20-year site base age....

Development of a solid propellant viscoelastic dynamic model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hufferd, W. L.; Fitzgerald, J. E.

1976-01-01

The results of a one year study to develop a dynamic response model for the Space Shuttle Solid Rocket Motor (SRM) propellant are presented. An extensive literature survey was conducted, from which it was concluded that the only significant variables affecting the dynamic response of the SRM propellant are temperature and frequency. Based on this study, and experimental data on propellants related to the SRM propellant, a dynamic constitutive model was developed in the form of a simple power law with temperature incorporated in the form of a modified power law. A computer program was generated which performs a least-squares curve-fit of laboratory data to determine the model parameters and it calculates dynamic moduli at any desired temperature and frequency. Additional studies investigated dynamic scaling laws and the extent of coupling between the SRM propellant and motor cases. It was found, in agreement with other investigations, that the propellant provides all of the mass and damping characteristics whereas the case provides all of the stiffness.

Minimization of Vibroacoustic Effects as a Criterion for Operation of Gear Transmissions in Accordance with Sustainable Development Principles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wieczorek, Andrzej N.; Kruk, Radosław

2016-03-01

In correctly functioning maintenance systems it is most important to prevent possible failures. A reduction of the vibroacoustic effects accompanying the operation of machines and equipment, including transmissions, is among the factors that lower the probability of a failure. The paper presents the results of the research on the impact of operational factors on vibroacoustic conditions of transmissions. The factors covered by the analysis included a change in the mating conditions of gear wheels associated with the wear of tooth surfaces, operation of transmissions in subharmonic conditions of the main resonance and the temperature of the lubricating oil. The study demonstrated that it was possible to reduce the vibroacoustic effects generated by gear transmissions by changing the conditions of their operation. Based on the results obtained, it has been found that the operation of gear transmissions in accordance with the sustainable development principles requires technical services to take active measures consisting in the search for optimal operating conditions in terms of the vibroacoustic conditions.

Complexities of Organization Dynamics and Development: Leaders and Managers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nderu-Boddington, Eulalee

2008-01-01

This article shows the theoretical framework for understanding organizational dynamics and development - the change theory and subordinate relationships within contemporary organizations. The emphasis is on power strategies and the relationship to organizational dynamics and development. The integrative process broadens the understanding of…

Pull-pull position control of dual motor wire rope transmission.

PubMed

Guo, Quan; Jiao, Zongxia; Yan, Liang; Yu, Qian; Shang, Yaoxing

2016-08-01

Wire rope transmission is very efficient because of the small total moving object mass. The wire rope could only transmit pulling force. Therefore it has to be kept in a tightened state during transmission; in high speed applications the dynamic performance depends on the rope's stiffness, which can be adjusted by the wire rope tension. To improve the system dynamic performance output, this paper proposes a novel pull-pull method based on dual motors connected by wire ropes, for precise, high speed position control applications. The method can regulate target position and wire rope tension simultaneously. Wire ropes remain in a pre-tightening state at all times, which prevents the influence of elasticity and reduces the position tracking error in the changing direction process. Simulations and experiments were conducted; the results indicate that both position precision and superior dynamic performance can be synchronously achieved. The research is relevant to space craft precision pointing instruments.

Synchronization transmission of laser pattern signal within uncertain switched network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lü, Ling; Li, Chengren; Li, Gang; Sun, Ao; Yan, Zhe; Rong, Tingting; Gao, Yan

2017-06-01

We propose a new technology for synchronization transmission of laser pattern signal within uncertain network with controllable topology. In synchronization process, the connection of dynamic network can vary at all time according to different demands. Especially, we construct the Lyapunov function of network through designing a special semi-positive definite function, and the synchronization transmission of laser pattern signal within uncertain network with controllable topology can be realized perfectly, which effectively avoids the complicated calculation for solving the second largest eignvalue of the coupling matrix of the dynamic network in order to obtain the network synchronization condition. At the same time, the uncertain parameters in dynamic equations belonging to network nodes can also be identified accurately via designing the identification laws of uncertain parameters. In addition, there are not any limitations for the synchronization target of network in the new technology, in other words, the target can either be a state variable signal of an arbitrary node within the network or an exterior signal.

Link-state-estimation-based transmission power control in wireless body area networks.

PubMed

Kim, Seungku; Eom, Doo-Seop

2014-07-01

This paper presents a novel transmission power control protocol to extend the lifetime of sensor nodes and to increase the link reliability in wireless body area networks (WBANs). We first experimentally investigate the properties of the link states using the received signal strength indicator (RSSI). We then propose a practical transmission power control protocol based on both short- and long-term link-state estimations. Both the short- and long-term link-state estimations enable the transceiver to adapt the transmission power level and target the RSSI threshold range, respectively, to simultaneously satisfy the requirements of energy efficiency and link reliability. Finally, the performance of the proposed protocol is experimentally evaluated in two experimental scenarios-body posture change and dynamic body motion-and compared with the typical WBAN transmission power control protocols, a real-time reactive scheme, and a dynamic postural position inference mechanism. From the experimental results, it is found that the proposed protocol increases the lifetime of the sensor nodes by a maximum of 9.86% and enhances the link reliability by reducing the packet loss by a maximum of 3.02%.

Optimal topologies for maximizing network transmission capacity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Zhenhao; Wu, Jiajing; Rong, Zhihai; Tse, Chi K.

2018-04-01

It has been widely demonstrated that the structure of a network is a major factor that affects its traffic dynamics. In this work, we try to identify the optimal topologies for maximizing the network transmission capacity, as well as to build a clear relationship between structural features of a network and the transmission performance in terms of traffic delivery. We propose an approach for designing optimal network topologies against traffic congestion by link rewiring and apply them on the Barabási-Albert scale-free, static scale-free and Internet Autonomous System-level networks. Furthermore, we analyze the optimized networks using complex network parameters that characterize the structure of networks, and our simulation results suggest that an optimal network for traffic transmission is more likely to have a core-periphery structure. However, assortative mixing and the rich-club phenomenon may have negative impacts on network performance. Based on the observations of the optimized networks, we propose an efficient method to improve the transmission capacity of large-scale networks.

Predicting optimal transmission investment in malaria parasites.

PubMed

Greischar, Megan A; Mideo, Nicole; Read, Andrew F; Bjørnstad, Ottar N

2016-07-01

In vertebrate hosts, malaria parasites face a tradeoff between replicating and the production of transmission stages that can be passed onto mosquitoes. This tradeoff is analogous to growth-reproduction tradeoffs in multicellular organisms. We use a mathematical model tailored to the life cycle and dynamics of malaria parasites to identify allocation strategies that maximize cumulative transmission potential to mosquitoes. We show that plastic strategies can substantially outperform fixed allocation because parasites can achieve greater fitness by investing in proliferation early and delaying the production of transmission stages. Parasites should further benefit from restraining transmission investment later in infection, because such a strategy can help maintain parasite numbers in the face of resource depletion. Early allocation decisions are predicted to have the greatest impact on parasite fitness. If the immune response saturates as parasite numbers increase, parasites should benefit from even longer delays prior to transmission investment. The presence of a competing strain selects for consistently lower levels of transmission investment and dramatically increased exploitation of the red blood cell resource. While we provide a detailed analysis of tradeoffs pertaining to malaria life history, our approach for identifying optimal plastic allocation strategies may be broadly applicable. © 2016 The Author(s). Evolution published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The Society for the Study of Evolution.