Predicted spatio-temporal dynamics of radiocesium deposited onto forests following the Fukushima nuclear accident

PubMed Central

Hashimoto, Shoji; Matsuura, Toshiya; Nanko, Kazuki; Linkov, Igor; Shaw, George; Kaneko, Shinji

2013-01-01

The majority of the area contaminated by the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident is covered by forest. To facilitate effective countermeasure strategies to mitigate forest contamination, we simulated the spatio-temporal dynamics of radiocesium deposited into Japanese forest ecosystems in 2011 using a model that was developed after the Chernobyl accident in 1986. The simulation revealed that the radiocesium inventories in tree and soil surface organic layer components drop rapidly during the first two years after the fallout. Over a period of one to two years, the radiocesium is predicted to move from the tree and surface organic soil to the mineral soil, which eventually becomes the largest radiocesium reservoir within forest ecosystems. Although the uncertainty of our simulations should be considered, the results provide a basis for understanding and anticipating the future dynamics of radiocesium in Japanese forests following the Fukushima accident. PMID:23995073

Investigation of shipping accident injury severity and mortality.

PubMed

Weng, Jinxian; Yang, Dong

2015-03-01

Shipping movements are operated in a complex and high-risk environment. Fatal shipping accidents are the nightmares of seafarers. With ten years' worldwide ship accident data, this study develops a binary logistic regression model and a zero-truncated binomial regression model to predict the probability of fatal shipping accidents and corresponding mortalities. The model results show that both the probability of fatal accidents and mortalities are greater for collision, fire/explosion, contact, grounding, sinking accidents occurred in adverse weather conditions and darkness conditions. Sinking has the largest effects on the increment of fatal accident probability and mortalities. The results also show that the bigger number of mortalities is associated with shipping accidents occurred far away from the coastal area/harbor/port. In addition, cruise ships are found to have more mortalities than non-cruise ships. The results of this study are beneficial for policy-makers in proposing efficient strategies to prevent fatal shipping accidents. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Test-Analysis Correlation for Space Shuttle External Tank Foam Impacting RCC Wing Leading Edge Component Panels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lyle, Karen H.

2008-01-01

The Space Shuttle Columbia Accident Investigation Board recommended that NASA develop, validate, and maintain a modeling tool capable of predicting the damage threshold for debris impacts on the Space Shuttle Reinforced Carbon-Carbon (RCC) wing leading edge and nosecap assembly. The results presented in this paper are one part of a multi-level approach that supported the development of the predictive tool used to recertify the shuttle for flight following the Columbia Accident. The assessment of predictive capability was largely based on test analysis comparisons for simpler component structures. This paper provides comparisons of finite element simulations with test data for external tank foam debris impacts onto 6-in. square RCC flat panels. Both quantitative displacement and qualitative damage assessment correlations are provided. The comparisons show good agreement and provided the Space Shuttle Program with confidence in the predictive tool.

Rail-highway crossing accident prediction research results - FY80

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1981-01-01

This report presents the results of research performed at the : Transportation Systems Center (TSC) dealing with mathematical : methods of predicting accidents at rail-highway crossings. The : work consists of three parts : Part I - Revised DOT Accid...

Measuring pedestrian volumes and conflicts. Volume 2, Accident prediction model

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1987-12-01

This final report presents the findings, conclusions, and recommendations of the study conducted to model pedestrian/vehicle accidents. A group-type analysis approach for the prediction of pedestrian/vehicle accidents using pedestrian/vehicle conflic...

Performances of the PIPER scalable child human body model in accident reconstruction

PubMed Central

Giordano, Chiara; Kleiven, Svein

2017-01-01

Human body models (HBMs) have the potential to provide significant insights into the pediatric response to impact. This study describes a scalable/posable approach to perform child accident reconstructions using the Position and Personalize Advanced Human Body Models for Injury Prediction (PIPER) scalable child HBM of different ages and in different positions obtained by the PIPER tool. Overall, the PIPER scalable child HBM managed reasonably well to predict the injury severity and location of the children involved in real-life crash scenarios documented in the medical records. The developed methodology and workflow is essential for future work to determine child injury tolerances based on the full Child Advanced Safety Project for European Roads (CASPER) accident reconstruction database. With the workflow presented in this study, the open-source PIPER scalable HBM combined with the PIPER tool is also foreseen to have implications for improved safety designs for a better protection of children in traffic accidents. PMID:29135997

HAS INCREASED BODY WEIGHT MADE DRIVING SAFER?†

PubMed Central

DUNN, RICHARD A.; TEFFT, NATHAN W.

2014-01-01

We develop a model of alcohol consumption that incorporates the negative biological relationship between body mass and inebriation conditional on total alcohol consumption. Our model predicts that the elasticity of inebriation with respect to weight is equal to the own-price elasticity of alcohol, consistent with body mass increasing the effective price of inebriation. Given that alcohol is generally considered price inelastic, this result implies that as individuals gain weight, they consume more alcohol but become less inebriated. We test this prediction and find that driver blood alcohol content (BAC) is negatively associated with driver weight. In fatal accidents with driver BAC above 0.10, the driver was 7.8 percentage points less likely to be obese than drivers in fatal accidents that did not involve alcohol. This relationship is not explained by driver attributes (age and sex), driver behaviors (speed and seatbelt use), vehicle attributes (weight class, model year, and number of occupants), or accident context (county of accident, time of day, and day of week). PMID:24038409

Emergency Situation Prediction Mechanism: A Novel Approach for Intelligent Transportation System Using Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks

PubMed Central

Gokulakrishnan, P.

2015-01-01

In Indian four-lane express highway, millions of vehicles are travelling every day. Accidents are unfortunate and frequently occurring in these highways causing deaths, increase in death toll, and damage to infrastructure. A mechanism is required to avoid such road accidents at the maximum to reduce the death toll. An Emergency Situation Prediction Mechanism, a novel and proactive approach, is proposed in this paper for achieving the best of Intelligent Transportation System using Vehicular Ad Hoc Network. ESPM intends to predict the possibility of occurrence of an accident in an Indian four-lane express highway. In ESPM, the emergency situation prediction is done by the Road Side Unit based on (i) the Status Report sent by the vehicles in the range of RSU and (ii) the road traffic flow analysis done by the RSU. Once the emergency situation or accident is predicted in advance, an Emergency Warning Message is constructed and disseminated to all vehicles in the area of RSU to alert and prevent the vehicles from accidents. ESPM performs well in emergency situation prediction in advance to the occurrence of an accident. ESPM predicts the emergency situation within 0.20 seconds which is comparatively less than the statistical value. The prediction accuracy of ESPM against vehicle density is found better in different traffic scenarios. PMID:26065014

Use of questionnaires and an expert panel to judge the environmental consequences of chemical spills for the development of an environment-accident index.

PubMed

Andersson, Asa Scott; Stjernström, Olof; Fängmark, Ingrid

2005-05-01

Assessing the environmental consequences of a chemical accident is a complex task. To date, the methods used to evaluate the environmental effects of an acute release of a chemical have often been based on measurements of chemical and physical variables deemed to be important, such as the concentration of the chemical. However, a broader strategy is needed to predict the environmental consequences of potential accidents during the planning process. An Environment-Accident Index (EAI), a simple tool based on such a strategy, has been developed to facilitate the consideration of a multitude of influential variables. The objectives of this study were to evaluate whether questionnaire-based expert panel's judgements could provide useful data on the environmental consequences of chemical spills, and an effective basis for further development of the EAI. As expected, the judgements did not agree perfectly, but they do give rough indications of the environmental effects, and highlight consistent trends that should be useful inputs for planning, prevention and decontamination processes. The different accidents were also judged to have caused everything from minor to very major effects in the environment, implying that a wide range of accident scenarios were represented in the material and covered by the EAI. Therefore, questionnaires and expert panel judgements can be used to collect useful data for estimating the likely environmental consequences of chemical accidents and for further development of the EAI.

A novel grey-fuzzy-Markov and pattern recognition model for industrial accident forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edem, Inyeneobong Ekoi; Oke, Sunday Ayoola; Adebiyi, Kazeem Adekunle

2017-10-01

Industrial forecasting is a top-echelon research domain, which has over the past several years experienced highly provocative research discussions. The scope of this research domain continues to expand due to the continuous knowledge ignition motivated by scholars in the area. So, more intelligent and intellectual contributions on current research issues in the accident domain will potentially spark more lively academic, value-added discussions that will be of practical significance to members of the safety community. In this communication, a new grey-fuzzy-Markov time series model, developed from nondifferential grey interval analytical framework has been presented for the first time. This instrument forecasts future accident occurrences under time-invariance assumption. The actual contribution made in the article is to recognise accident occurrence patterns and decompose them into grey state principal pattern components. The architectural framework of the developed grey-fuzzy-Markov pattern recognition (GFMAPR) model has four stages: fuzzification, smoothening, defuzzification and whitenisation. The results of application of the developed novel model signify that forecasting could be effectively carried out under uncertain conditions and hence, positions the model as a distinctly superior tool for accident forecasting investigations. The novelty of the work lies in the capability of the model in making highly accurate predictions and forecasts based on the availability of small or incomplete accident data.

A system of safety management practices and worker engagement for reducing and preventing accidents: an empirical and theoretical investigation.

PubMed

Wachter, Jan K; Yorio, Patrick L

2014-07-01

The overall research objective was to theoretically and empirically develop the ideas around a system of safety management practices (ten practices were elaborated), to test their relationship with objective safety statistics (such as accident rates), and to explore how these practices work to achieve positive safety results (accident prevention) through worker engagement. Data were collected using safety manager, supervisor and employee surveys designed to assess and link safety management system practices, employee perceptions resulting from existing practices, and safety performance outcomes. Results indicate the following: there is a significant negative relationship between the presence of ten individual safety management practices, as well as the composite of these practices, with accident rates; there is a significant negative relationship between the level of safety-focused worker emotional and cognitive engagement with accident rates; safety management systems and worker engagement levels can be used individually to predict accident rates; safety management systems can be used to predict worker engagement levels; and worker engagement levels act as mediators between the safety management system and safety performance outcomes (such as accident rates). Even though the presence of safety management system practices is linked with incident reduction and may represent a necessary first-step in accident prevention, safety performance may also depend on mediation by safety-focused cognitive and emotional engagement by workers. Thus, when organizations invest in a safety management system approach to reducing/preventing accidents and improving safety performance, they should also be concerned about winning over the minds and hearts of their workers through human performance-based safety management systems designed to promote and enhance worker engagement. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

An Evaluation of the Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC) Software’s Ability to Model the Chornobyl Accident

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-03-01

source term. Several publications provided a thorough accounting of the accident, including “ Chernobyl Record” [Mould], and the NRC technical report...Report on the Accident at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Station” [NUREG-1250]. The most comprehensive study of transport models to predict the...from the Chernobyl Accident: The ATMES Report” [Klug, et al.]. The Atmospheric Transport 5 Model Evaluation Study (ATMES) report used data

Investigation of adolescent accident predictive variables in hilly regions.

PubMed

Mohanty, Malaya; Gupta, Ankit

2016-09-01

The study aims to determine the significant personal and environmental factors in predicting the adolescent accidents in the hilly regions taking into account two cities Hamirpur and Dharamshala, which lie at an average elevation of 700--1000 metres above the mean sea level (MSL). Detailed comparisons between the results of 2 cities are also studied. The results are analyzed to provide the list of most significant factors responsible for adolescent accidents. Data were collected from different schools and colleges of the city with the help of a questionnaire survey. Around 690 responses from Hamirpur and 460 responses from Dharamshala were taken for study and analysis. Standard deviations (SD) of various factors affecting accidents were calculated and factors with relatively very low SD were discarded and other variables were considered for correlations. Correlation was developed using Kendall's-tau and chi-square tests and factors those were found significant were used for modelling. They were - the victim's age, the character of road, the speed of vehicle, and the use of helmet for Hamirpur and for Dharamshala, the kind of vehicle involved was an added variable found responsible for adolescent accidents. A logistic regression was performed to know the effect of each category present in a variable on the occurrence of accidents. Though the age and the speed of vehicle were considered to be important factors for accident occurrence according to Indian accident data records, even the use of helmet comes out as a major concern. The age group of 15-18 and 18-21 years were found to be more susceptible to accidents than the higher age groups. Due to the presence of hilly area, the character of road becomes a major concern for cause of accidents and the topography of the area makes the kind of vehicle involved as a major variable for determining the severity of accidents.

Development of fission-products transport model in severe-accident scenarios for Scdap/Relap5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Honaiser, Eduardo Henrique Rangel

The understanding and estimation of the release of fission products during a severe accident became one of the priorities of the nuclear community after 1980, with the events of the Three-mile Island unit 2 (TMI-2), in 1979, and Chernobyl accidents, in 1986. Since this time, theoretical developments and experiments have shown that the primary circuit systems of light water reactors (LWR) have the potential to attenuate the release of fission products, a fact that had been neglected before. An advanced tool, compatible with nuclear thermal-hydraulics integral codes, is developed to predict the retention and physical evolution of the fission products in the primary circuit of LWRs, without considering the chemistry effects. The tool embodies the state-of-the-art models for the involved phenomena as well as develops new models. The capabilities acquired after the implementation of this tool in the Scdap/Relap5 code can be used to increase the accuracy of probability safety assessment (PSA) level 2, enhance the reactor accident management procedures and design new emergency safety features.

The Realization of Drilling Fault Diagnosis Based on Hybrid Programming with Matlab and VB

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jiangping; Hu, Yingcai

This paper presents a method using hybrid programming with Matlab and VB based on ActiveX to design the system of drilling accident prediction and diagnosis. So that the powerful calculating function and graphical display function of Matlab and visual development interface of VB are combined fully. The main interface of the diagnosis system is compiled in VB,and the analysis and fault diagnosis are implemented by neural network tool boxes in Matlab.The system has favorable interactive interface,and the fault example validation shows that the diagnosis result is feasible and can meet the demands of drilling accident prediction and diagnosis.

Predictive factors for acute stress disorder and posttraumatic stress disorder after motor vehicle accidents.

PubMed

Yaşan, Aziz; Guzel, Aslan; Tamam, Yusuf; Ozkan, Mustafa

2009-01-01

Since traffic accidents are more common in developing countries than in developed countries, we aimed to investigate the association of several factors with the development and persistence of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) after traffic accidents. In the study,95 participants with injuries from traffic accidents were evaluated at 4 different times: in the beginning, and after 3, 6 and 12 months. During the first evaluation, 41.1% (39) of our participants had acute stress disorder (ASD). It was found that lower perceived social support (OR = 0.0908, 95% CI = 0.834-0.989, p = 0.027) and higher peritraumatic dissociative experience scores (OR = 1.332, 95% CI = 1.170-1.516, p < 0.001) were significant predictors of ASD. In the evaluations after 3, 6 and 12 months after the accident, we found PTSD affected 29.8, 23.1 and 17.9% of the participants, respectively. Although limitations at work and in social life after a traffic accident were not related to PTSD at 3 months (OR = 122.43, 95% CI = 0.000, p = 0.999) or at 6 months (OR = 63.438, 95% CI = 0.529-76.059, p = 0.089), limitations at work and in social life were predictors of PTSD at 12 months (OR = 155.514, 95% CI = 2.321-104.22, p = 0.019). The persistence of PTSD at the 12-month evaluation is related to ASD, limitations in work and social life, and lower social support scores. In developing countries like Turkey, long-term PTSD is commonly seen after traffic accidents. 2009 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Prediction Of The Expected Safety Performance Of Rural Two-Lane Highways

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-12-01

This report presents an algorithm for predicting the safety performance of a rural two-lane highway. The accident prediction algorithm consists of base models and accident modification factors for both roadway segments and at-grade intersections on r...

The social accident: a theoretical model and a research agenda for studying the influence of social and cultural characteristics on motor vehicle accidents.

PubMed

Factor, Roni; Mahalel, David; Yair, Gad

2007-09-01

The paper develops a sociological model to explain collisions between two drivers or more. The "Social Accident" model presented here integrates empirical findings from prior studies and extant sociological theories. Sociological theory posits that social groups have unique cultural characteristics, which include a distinctive world view and ways of operating that influence its members. These cultural characteristics may cause drivers in different groups to interpret a given situation differently; therefore, they will make conflicting decisions that may possibly lead to road accidents. The proposed model may contribute to an understanding of the social mechanism related to interactions and communication among drivers by presenting new directions for understanding accidents and collisions. The paper concludes with suggestions for future research that will employ the model to assess its predictive and practical utility.

Predicting and analyzing the trend of traffic accidents deaths in Iran in 2014 and 2015.

PubMed

Mehmandar, Mohammadreza; Soori, Hamid; Mehrabi, Yadolah

2016-01-01

Predicting the trend in traffic accidents deaths and its analysis can be a useful tool for planning and policy-making, conducting interventions appropriate with death trend, and taking the necessary actions required for controlling and preventing future occurrences. Predicting and analyzing the trend of traffic accidents deaths in Iran in 2014 and 2015. It was a cross-sectional study. All the information related to fatal traffic accidents available in the database of Iran Legal Medicine Organization from 2004 to the end of 2013 were used to determine the change points (multi-variable time series analysis). Using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, traffic accidents death rates were predicted for 2014 and 2015, and a comparison was made between this rate and the predicted value in order to determine the efficiency of the model. From the results, the actual death rate in 2014 was almost similar to that recorded for this year, while in 2015 there was a decrease compared with the previous year (2014) for all the months. A maximum value of 41% was also predicted for the months of January and February, 2015. From the prediction and analysis of the death trends, proper application and continuous use of the intervention conducted in the previous years for road safety improvement, motor vehicle safety improvement, particularly training and culture-fostering interventions, as well as approval and execution of deterrent regulations for changing the organizational behaviors, can significantly decrease the loss caused by traffic accidents.

A combined M5P tree and hazard-based duration model for predicting urban freeway traffic accident durations.

PubMed

Lin, Lei; Wang, Qian; Sadek, Adel W

2016-06-01

The duration of freeway traffic accidents duration is an important factor, which affects traffic congestion, environmental pollution, and secondary accidents. Among previous studies, the M5P algorithm has been shown to be an effective tool for predicting incident duration. M5P builds a tree-based model, like the traditional classification and regression tree (CART) method, but with multiple linear regression models as its leaves. The problem with M5P for accident duration prediction, however, is that whereas linear regression assumes that the conditional distribution of accident durations is normally distributed, the distribution for a "time-to-an-event" is almost certainly nonsymmetrical. A hazard-based duration model (HBDM) is a better choice for this kind of a "time-to-event" modeling scenario, and given this, HBDMs have been previously applied to analyze and predict traffic accidents duration. Previous research, however, has not yet applied HBDMs for accident duration prediction, in association with clustering or classification of the dataset to minimize data heterogeneity. The current paper proposes a novel approach for accident duration prediction, which improves on the original M5P tree algorithm through the construction of a M5P-HBDM model, in which the leaves of the M5P tree model are HBDMs instead of linear regression models. Such a model offers the advantage of minimizing data heterogeneity through dataset classification, and avoids the need for the incorrect assumption of normality for traffic accident durations. The proposed model was then tested on two freeway accident datasets. For each dataset, the first 500 records were used to train the following three models: (1) an M5P tree; (2) a HBDM; and (3) the proposed M5P-HBDM, and the remainder of data were used for testing. The results show that the proposed M5P-HBDM managed to identify more significant and meaningful variables than either M5P or HBDMs. Moreover, the M5P-HBDM had the lowest overall mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

MELCOR Analysis of OSU Multi-Application Small Light Water Reactor (MASLWR) Experiment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yoon, Dhongik S.; Jo, HangJin; Fu, Wen

A multi-application small light water reactor (MASLWR) conceptual design was developed by Oregon State University (OSU) with emphasis on passive safety systems. The passive containment safety system employs condensation and natural circulation to achieve the necessary heat removal from the containment in case of postulated accidents. Containment condensation experiments at the MASLWR test facility at OSU are modeled and analyzed with MELCOR, a system-level reactor accident analysis computer code. The analysis assesses its ability to predict condensation heat transfer in the presence of noncondensable gas for accidents where high-energy steam is released into the containment. This work demonstrates MELCOR’s abilitymore » to predict the pressure-temperature response of the scaled containment. Our analysis indicates that the heat removal rates are underestimated in the experiment due to the limited locations of the thermocouples and applies corrections to these measurements by conducting integral energy analyses along with CFD simulation for confirmation. Furthermore, the corrected heat removal rate measurements and the MELCOR predictions on the heat removal rate from the containment show good agreement with the experimental data.« less

MELCOR Analysis of OSU Multi-Application Small Light Water Reactor (MASLWR) Experiment

DOE PAGES

Yoon, Dhongik S.; Jo, HangJin; Fu, Wen; ...

2017-05-23

A multi-application small light water reactor (MASLWR) conceptual design was developed by Oregon State University (OSU) with emphasis on passive safety systems. The passive containment safety system employs condensation and natural circulation to achieve the necessary heat removal from the containment in case of postulated accidents. Containment condensation experiments at the MASLWR test facility at OSU are modeled and analyzed with MELCOR, a system-level reactor accident analysis computer code. The analysis assesses its ability to predict condensation heat transfer in the presence of noncondensable gas for accidents where high-energy steam is released into the containment. This work demonstrates MELCOR’s abilitymore » to predict the pressure-temperature response of the scaled containment. Our analysis indicates that the heat removal rates are underestimated in the experiment due to the limited locations of the thermocouples and applies corrections to these measurements by conducting integral energy analyses along with CFD simulation for confirmation. Furthermore, the corrected heat removal rate measurements and the MELCOR predictions on the heat removal rate from the containment show good agreement with the experimental data.« less

The Analysis of the Contribution of Human Factors to the In-Flight Loss of Control Accidents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ancel, Ersin; Shih, Ann T.

2012-01-01

In-flight loss of control (LOC) is currently the leading cause of fatal accidents based on various commercial aircraft accident statistics. As the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) emerges, new contributing factors leading to LOC are anticipated. The NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP), along with other aviation agencies and communities are actively developing safety products to mitigate the LOC risk. This paper discusses the approach used to construct a generic integrated LOC accident framework (LOCAF) model based on a detailed review of LOC accidents over the past two decades. The LOCAF model is comprised of causal factors from the domain of human factors, aircraft system component failures, and atmospheric environment. The multiple interdependent causal factors are expressed in an Object-Oriented Bayesian belief network. In addition to predicting the likelihood of LOC accident occurrence, the system-level integrated LOCAF model is able to evaluate the impact of new safety technology products developed in AvSP. This provides valuable information to decision makers in strategizing NASA's aviation safety technology portfolio. The focus of this paper is on the analysis of human causal factors in the model, including the contributions from flight crew and maintenance workers. The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) taxonomy was used to develop human related causal factors. The preliminary results from the baseline LOCAF model are also presented.

Review the number of accidents in Tehran over a two-year period and prediction of the number of events based on a time-series model

PubMed Central

Teymuri, Ghulam Heidar; Sadeghian, Marzieh; Kangavari, Mehdi; Asghari, Mehdi; Madrese, Elham; Abbasinia, Marzieh; Ahmadnezhad, Iman; Gholizadeh, Yavar

2013-01-01

Background: One of the significant dangers that threaten people’s lives is the increased risk of accidents. Annually, more than 1.3 million people die around the world as a result of accidents, and it has been estimated that approximately 300 deaths occur daily due to traffic accidents in the world with more than 50% of that number being people who were not even passengers in the cars. The aim of this study was to examine traffic accidents in Tehran and forecast the number of future accidents using a time-series model. Methods: The study was a cross-sectional study that was conducted in 2011. The sample population was all traffic accidents that caused death and physical injuries in Tehran in 2010 and 2011, as registered in the Tehran Emergency ward. The present study used Minitab 15 software to provide a description of accidents in Tehran for the specified time period as well as those that occurred during April 2012. Results: The results indicated that the average number of daily traffic accidents in Tehran in 2010 was 187 with a standard deviation of 83.6. In 2011, there was an average of 180 daily traffic accidents with a standard deviation of 39.5. One-way analysis of variance indicated that the average number of accidents in the city was different for different months of the year (P < 0.05). Most of the accidents occurred in March, July, August, and September. Thus, more accidents occurred in the summer than in the other seasons. The number of accidents was predicted based on an auto-regressive, moving average (ARMA) for April 2012. The number of accidents displayed a seasonal trend. The prediction of the number of accidents in the city during April of 2012 indicated that a total of 4,459 accidents would occur with mean of 149 accidents per day during these three months. Conclusion: The number of accidents in Tehran displayed a seasonal trend, and the number of accidents was different for different seasons of the year. PMID:26120405

Model predictions of wind and turbulence profiles associated with an ensemble of aircraft accidents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williamson, G. G.; Lewellen, W. S.; Teske, M. E.

1977-01-01

The feasibility of predicting conditions under which wind/turbulence environments hazardous to aviation operations exist is studied by examining a number of different accidents in detail. A model of turbulent flow in the atmospheric boundary layer is used to reconstruct wind and turbulence profiles which may have existed at low altitudes at the time of the accidents. The predictions are consistent with available flight recorder data, but neither the input boundary conditions nor the flight recorder observations are sufficiently precise for these studies to be interpreted as verification tests of the model predictions.

Curve Estimation of Number of People Killed in Traffic Accidents in Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berkhan Akalin, Kadir; Karacasu, Murat; Altin, Arzu Yavuz; Ergül, Bariş

2016-10-01

One or more than one vehicle in motion on the highway involving death, injury and loss events which have resulted are called accidents. As a result of increasing population and traffic density, traffic accidents continue to increase and this leads to both human losses and harm to the economy. In addition, also leads to social problems. As a result of increasing population and traffic density, traffic accidents continue to increase and this leads to both human losses and harm to the economy. In addition to this, it also leads to social problems. As a result of traffic accidents, millions of people die year by year. A great majority of these accidents occur in developing countries. One of the most important tasks of transportation engineers is to reduce traffic accidents by creating a specific system. For that reason, statistical information about traffic accidents which occur in the past years should be organized by versed people. Factors affecting the traffic accidents are analyzed in various ways. In this study, modelling the number of people killed in traffic accidents in Turkey is determined. The dead people were modelled using curve fitting method with the number of people killed in traffic accidents in Turkey dataset between 1990 and 2014. It was also predicted the number of dead people by using various models for the future. It is decided that linear model is suitable for the estimates.

Predicting and analyzing the trend of traffic accidents deaths in Iran in 2014 and 2015

PubMed Central

Mehmandar, Mohammadreza; Soori, Hamid; Mehrabi, Yadolah

2016-01-01

Background: Predicting the trend in traffic accidents deaths and its analysis can be a useful tool for planning and policy-making, conducting interventions appropriate with death trend, and taking the necessary actions required for controlling and preventing future occurrences. Objective: Predicting and analyzing the trend of traffic accidents deaths in Iran in 2014 and 2015. Settings and Design: It was a cross-sectional study. Materials and Methods: All the information related to fatal traffic accidents available in the database of Iran Legal Medicine Organization from 2004 to the end of 2013 were used to determine the change points (multi-variable time series analysis). Using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, traffic accidents death rates were predicted for 2014 and 2015, and a comparison was made between this rate and the predicted value in order to determine the efficiency of the model. Results: From the results, the actual death rate in 2014 was almost similar to that recorded for this year, while in 2015 there was a decrease compared with the previous year (2014) for all the months. A maximum value of 41% was also predicted for the months of January and February, 2015. Conclusion: From the prediction and analysis of the death trends, proper application and continuous use of the intervention conducted in the previous years for road safety improvement, motor vehicle safety improvement, particularly training and culture-fostering interventions, as well as approval and execution of deterrent regulations for changing the organizational behaviors, can significantly decrease the loss caused by traffic accidents. PMID:27308255

Modeling when and where a secondary accident occurs.

PubMed

Wang, Junhua; Liu, Boya; Fu, Ting; Liu, Shuo; Stipancic, Joshua

2018-01-31

The occurrence of secondary accidents leads to traffic congestion and road safety issues. Secondary accident prevention has become a major consideration in traffic incident management. This paper investigates the location and time of a potential secondary accident after the occurrence of an initial traffic accident. With accident data and traffic loop data collected over three years from California interstate freeways, a shock wave-based method was introduced to identify secondary accidents. A linear regression model and two machine learning algorithms, including a back-propagation neural network (BPNN) and a least squares support vector machine (LSSVM), were implemented to explore the distance and time gap between the initial and secondary accidents using inputs of crash severity, violation category, weather condition, tow away, road surface condition, lighting, parties involved, traffic volume, duration, and shock wave speed generated by the primary accident. From the results, the linear regression model was inadequate in describing the effect of most variables and its goodness-of-fit and accuracy in prediction was relatively poor. In the training programs, the BPNN and LSSVM demonstrated adequate goodness-of-fit, though the BPNN was superior with a higher CORR and lower MSE. The BPNN model also outperformed the LSSVM in time prediction, while both failed to provide adequate distance prediction. Therefore, the BPNN model could be used to forecast the time gap between initial and secondary accidents, which could be used by decision makers and incident management agencies to prevent or reduce secondary collisions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

United States Department of Energy severe accident research following the Fukushima Daiichi accidents

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Farmer, M. T.; Corradini, M.; Rempe, J.

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has played a major role in the U.S. response to the events at Fukushima Daiichi. During the first several weeks following the accident, U.S. assistance efforts were guided by results from a significant and diverse set of analyses. In the months that followed, a coordinated analysis activity aimed at gaining a more thorough understanding of the accident sequence was completed using laboratory-developed, system-level best-estimate accident analysis codes, while a parallel analysis was conducted by U.S. industry. A comparison of predictions for Unit 1 from these two studies indicated significant differences between MAAP and MELCORmore » results for key plant parameters, such as in-core hydrogen production. On that basis, a crosswalk was completed to determine the key modeling variations that led to these differences. In parallel with these activities, it became clear that there was a need to perform a technology gap evaluation on accident-tolerant components and severe accident analysis methodologies with the goal of identifying any data and/or knowledge gaps that may exist given the current state of light water reactor (LWR) severe accident research and augmented by insights from Fukushima. In addition, there is growing international recognition that data from Fukushima could significantly reduce uncertainties related to severe accident progression, particularly for boiling water reactors. On these bases, a group of U. S. experts in LWR safety and plant operations was convened by the DOE Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) to complete technology gap analysis and Fukushima forensics data needs identification activities. The results from these activities were used as the basis for refining DOE-NE's severe accident research and development (R&D) plan. Finally, this paper provides a high-level review of DOE-sponsored R&D efforts in these areas, including planned activities on accident-tolerant components and accident analysis methods.« less

United States Department of Energy severe accident research following the Fukushima Daiichi accidents

DOE PAGES

Farmer, M. T.; Corradini, M.; Rempe, J.; ...

2016-11-02

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has played a major role in the U.S. response to the events at Fukushima Daiichi. During the first several weeks following the accident, U.S. assistance efforts were guided by results from a significant and diverse set of analyses. In the months that followed, a coordinated analysis activity aimed at gaining a more thorough understanding of the accident sequence was completed using laboratory-developed, system-level best-estimate accident analysis codes, while a parallel analysis was conducted by U.S. industry. A comparison of predictions for Unit 1 from these two studies indicated significant differences between MAAP and MELCORmore » results for key plant parameters, such as in-core hydrogen production. On that basis, a crosswalk was completed to determine the key modeling variations that led to these differences. In parallel with these activities, it became clear that there was a need to perform a technology gap evaluation on accident-tolerant components and severe accident analysis methodologies with the goal of identifying any data and/or knowledge gaps that may exist given the current state of light water reactor (LWR) severe accident research and augmented by insights from Fukushima. In addition, there is growing international recognition that data from Fukushima could significantly reduce uncertainties related to severe accident progression, particularly for boiling water reactors. On these bases, a group of U. S. experts in LWR safety and plant operations was convened by the DOE Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) to complete technology gap analysis and Fukushima forensics data needs identification activities. The results from these activities were used as the basis for refining DOE-NE's severe accident research and development (R&D) plan. Finally, this paper provides a high-level review of DOE-sponsored R&D efforts in these areas, including planned activities on accident-tolerant components and accident analysis methods.« less

Prediction of the Possibility a Right-Turn Driving Behavior at Intersection Leads to an Accident by Detecting Deviation of the Situation from Usual when the Behavior is Observed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayashi, Toshinori; Yamada, Keiichi

Deviation of driving behavior from usual could be a sign of human error that increases the risk of traffic accidents. This paper proposes a novel method for predicting the possibility a driving behavior leads to an accident from the information on the driving behavior and the situation. In a previous work, a method of predicting the possibility by detecting the deviation of driving behavior from usual one in that situation has been proposed. In contrast, the method proposed in this paper predicts the possibility by detecting the deviation of the situation from usual one when the behavior is observed. An advantage of the proposed method is the number of the required models is independent of the variety of the situations. The method was applied to a problem of predicting accidents by right-turn driving behavior at an intersection, and the performance of the method was evaluated by experiments on a driving simulator.

Random parameter models for accident prediction on two-lane undivided highways in India.

PubMed

Dinu, R R; Veeraragavan, A

2011-02-01

Generalized linear modeling (GLM), with the assumption of Poisson or negative binomial error structure, has been widely employed in road accident modeling. A number of explanatory variables related to traffic, road geometry, and environment that contribute to accident occurrence have been identified and accident prediction models have been proposed. The accident prediction models reported in literature largely employ the fixed parameter modeling approach, where the magnitude of influence of an explanatory variable is considered to be fixed for any observation in the population. Similar models have been proposed for Indian highways too, which include additional variables representing traffic composition. The mixed traffic on Indian highways comes with a lot of variability within, ranging from difference in vehicle types to variability in driver behavior. This could result in variability in the effect of explanatory variables on accidents across locations. Random parameter models, which can capture some of such variability, are expected to be more appropriate for the Indian situation. The present study is an attempt to employ random parameter modeling for accident prediction on two-lane undivided rural highways in India. Three years of accident history, from nearly 200 km of highway segments, is used to calibrate and validate the models. The results of the analysis suggest that the model coefficients for traffic volume, proportion of cars, motorized two-wheelers and trucks in traffic, and driveway density and horizontal and vertical curvatures are randomly distributed across locations. The paper is concluded with a discussion on modeling results and the limitations of the present study. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rail-highway crossing accident prediction analysis

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1987-04-01

This report contains technical results that have been produced in a study : to revise and update the DOT rail-highway crossing resource allocation : procedure. This work has resulted in new accident prediction and severity : formulas, a modified and ...

Operational atmospheric modeling system CARIS for effective emergency response associated with hazardous chemical releases in Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Cheol-Hee; Park, Jin-Ho; Park, Cheol-Jin; Na, Jin-Gyun

2004-03-01

The Chemical Accidents Response Information System (CARIS) was developed at the Center for Chemical Safety Management in South Korea in order to track and predict the dispersion of hazardous chemicals in the case of an accident or terrorist attack involving chemical companies. The main objective of CARIS is to facilitate an efficient emergency response to hazardous chemical accidents by rapidly providing key information in the decision-making process. In particular, the atmospheric modeling system implemented in CARIS, which is composed of a real-time numerical weather forecasting model and an air pollution dispersion model, can be used as a tool to forecast concentrations and to provide a wide range of assessments associated with various hazardous chemicals in real time. This article introduces the components of CARIS and describes its operational modeling system. Some examples of the operational modeling system and its use for emergency preparedness are presented and discussed. Finally, this article evaluates the current numerical weather prediction model for Korea.

Characterizing the Severe Turbulence Environments Associated With Commercial Aviation Accidents. Part 1; 44 Case Study Synoptic Observational Analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaplan, Michael L.; Huffman, Allan W.; Lux, Kevin M.; Charney, Joseph J.; Riordan, Allan J.; Lin, Yuh-Lang; Proctor, Fred H. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

A 44 case study analysis of the large-scale atmospheric structure associated with development of accident-producing aircraft turbulence is described. Categorization is a function of the accident location, altitude, time of year, time of day, and the turbulence category, which classifies disturbances. National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalyses data sets and satellite imagery are employed to diagnose synoptic scale predictor fields associated with the large-scale environment preceding severe turbulence. These analyses indicate a predominance of severe accident-producing turbulence within the entrance region of a jet stream at the synoptic scale. Typically, a flow curvature region is just upstream within the jet entrance region, convection is within 100 km of the accident, vertical motion is upward, absolute vorticity is low, vertical wind shear is increasing, and horizontal cold advection is substantial. The most consistent predictor is upstream flow curvature and nearby convection is the second most frequent predictor.

Light water reactor lower head failure analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rempe, J.L.; Chavez, S.A.; Thinnes, G.L.

1993-10-01

This document presents the results from a US Nuclear Regulatory Commission-sponsored research program to investigate the mode and timing of vessel lower head failure. Major objectives of the analysis were to identify plausible failure mechanisms and to develop a method for determining which failure mode would occur first in different light water reactor designs and accident conditions. Failure mechanisms, such as tube ejection, tube rupture, global vessel failure, and localized vessel creep rupture, were studied. Newly developed models and existing models were applied to predict which failure mechanism would occur first in various severe accident scenarios. So that a broadermore » range of conditions could be considered simultaneously, calculations relied heavily on models with closed-form or simplified numerical solution techniques. Finite element techniques-were employed for analytical model verification and examining more detailed phenomena. High-temperature creep and tensile data were obtained for predicting vessel and penetration structural response.« less

Development of Northeast Asia Nuclear Power Plant Accident Simulator.

PubMed

Kim, Juyub; Kim, Juyoul; Po, Li-Chi Cliff

2017-06-15

A conclusion from the lessons learned after the March 2011 Fukushima Daiichi accident was that Korea needs a tool to estimate consequences from a major accident that could occur at a nuclear power plant located in a neighboring country. This paper describes a suite of computer-based codes to be used by Korea's nuclear emergency response staff for training and potentially operational support in Korea's national emergency preparedness and response program. The systems of codes, Northeast Asia Nuclear Accident Simulator (NANAS), consist of three modules: source-term estimation, atmospheric dispersion prediction and dose assessment. To quickly assess potential doses to the public in Korea, NANAS includes specific reactor data from the nuclear power plants in China, Japan and Taiwan. The completed simulator is demonstrated using data for a hypothetical release. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The ARAC-RODOS-WSPEEDI Information Exchange Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sullivan, T J

1999-09-01

Under the auspices of a US DOE-JAPAN Memorandum of Understanding JAERI and LLNL agreed to develop and evaluate a prototype information exchange protocol for nuclear accident emergency situations. This project received some interest from the US DOS and FEMA as it fits nicely under the umbrella of the G-7's GEMINI (Global Emergency Management Information Network Initiative) project. Because of LLNL/ARAC and JAERV WSPEEDI interest in nuclear accident consequence assessment and hazard prediction on all scales, to include global, we were happy to participate. Subsequent to the Spring 1997 RODOS-ARAC Workshop a Memorandum of Agreement was developed to enhance mutual collaborationmore » on matters of emergency systems development. In the summer of 1998 the project leaders of RODOS, WSPEEDI and ARAC met at FZK and agreed to join in a triangular collaboration on the development and demonstration of an emergency information exchange protocol. JAERI and FZK are engaged in developing a formal cooperation agreement. The purpose of this project is to evaluate the prototype information protocol application for technical feasibility and mutual benefit through simulated (real) event; quick exchange of atmospheric modeling products and environmental data during emergencies, distribution of predicted results to other countries having no prediction capabilities, and utilization of the link for collaborative studies.« less

The role of personality traits and driving experience in self-reported risky driving behaviors and accident risk among Chinese drivers.

PubMed

Tao, Da; Zhang, Rui; Qu, Xingda

2017-02-01

The purpose of this study was to explore the role of personality traits and driving experience in the prediction of risky driving behaviors and accident risk among Chinese population. A convenience sample of drivers (n=511; mean (SD) age=34.2 (8.8) years) completed a self-report questionnaire that was designed based on validated scales for measuring personality traits, risky driving behaviors and self-reported accident risk. Results from structural equation modeling analysis demonstrated that the data fit well with our theoretical model. While showing no direct effects on accident risk, personality traits had direct effects on risky driving behaviors, and yielded indirect effects on accident risk mediated by risky driving behaviors. Both driving experience and risky driving behaviors directly predicted accident risk and accounted for 15% of its variance. There was little gender difference in personality traits, risky driving behaviors and accident risk. The findings emphasized the importance of personality traits and driving experience in the understanding of risky driving behaviors and accident risk among Chinese drivers and provided new insight into the design of evidence-based driving education and accident prevention interventions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Context-aware system for pre-triggering irreversible vehicle safety actuators.

PubMed

Böhmländer, Dennis; Dirndorfer, Tobias; Al-Bayatti, Ali H; Brandmeier, Thomas

2017-06-01

New vehicle safety systems have led to a steady improvement of road safety and a reduction in the risk of suffering a major injury in vehicle accidents. A huge leap forward in the development of new vehicle safety systems are actuators that have to be activated irreversibly shortly before a collision in order to mitigate accident consequences. The triggering decision has to be based on measurements of exteroceptive sensors currently used in driver assistance systems. This paper focuses on developing a novel context-aware system designed to detect potential collisions and to trigger safety actuators even before an accident occurs. In this context, the analysis examines the information that can be collected from exteroceptive sensors (pre-crash data) to predict a certain collision and its severity to decide whether a triggering is entitled or not. A five-layer context-aware architecture is presented, that is able to collect contextual information about the vehicle environment and the actual driving state using different sensors, to perform reasoning about potential collisions, and to trigger safety functions upon that information. Accident analysis is used in a data model to represent uncertain knowledge and to perform reasoning. A simulation concept based on real accident data is introduced to evaluate the presented system concept. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Thirty years after the Chernobyl accident: What lessons have we learnt?

PubMed

Beresford, N A; Fesenko, S; Konoplev, A; Skuterud, L; Smith, J T; Voigt, G

2016-06-01

April 2016 sees the 30(th) anniversary of the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant. As a consequence of the accident populations were relocated in Belarus, Russia and Ukraine and remedial measures were put in place to reduce the entry of contaminants (primarily (134+137)Cs) into the human food chain in a number of countries throughout Europe. Remedial measures are still today in place in a number of countries, and areas of the former Soviet Union remain abandoned. The Chernobyl accident led to a large resurgence in radioecological studies both to aid remediation and to be able to make future predictions on the post-accident situation, but, also in recognition that more knowledge was required to cope with future accidents. In this paper we discuss, what in the authors' opinions, were the advances made in radioecology as a consequence of the Chernobyl accident. The areas we identified as being significantly advanced following Chernobyl were: the importance of semi-natural ecosystems in human dose formation; the characterisation and environmental behaviour of 'hot particles'; the development and application of countermeasures; the "fixation" and long term bioavailability of radiocaesium and; the effects of radiation on plants and animals. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Road traffic accidents and self-reported Portuguese car driver's attitudes, behaviors, and opinions: Are they related?

PubMed

Bon de Sousa, Teresa; Santos, Carolina; Mateus, Ceu; Areal, Alain; Trigoso, Jose; Nunes, Carla

2016-10-02

This study aims to characterize Portuguese car drivers in terms of demographic characteristics, driving experience, and attitudes, opinions, and behaviors concerning road traffic safety. Furthermore, associations between these characteristics and self-reported involvement in a road traffic accident as a driver in the last 3 years were analyzed. A final goal was to develop a final predictive model of the risk of suffering a road traffic accident. A cross-sectional analytic study was developed, based on a convenience sample of 612 car drivers. A questionnaire was applied by trained interviewers, embracing various topics related to road safety such as driving under the influence of alcohol or drugs, phone use while driving, speeding, use of advanced driver assistance systems, and the transport infrastructure and environment (European Project SARTRE 4, Portuguese version). From the 52 initial questions, 19 variables were selected through principal component analysis. Then, and in addition to the usual descriptive measures, logistic binary regression models were used in order to describe associations and to develop a predictive model of being involved in a road traffic accident. Of the 612 car drivers, 37.3% (228) reported being involved in a road traffic accident with damage or injury in the past 3 years. In this group, the majority were male, older than 65, with no children, not employed, and living in an urban area. In the multivariate model, several factors were identified: being widowed (vs. single; odds ratio [OR] = 3.478, 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.159-10.434); living in a suburban area (vs. a rural area; OR = 5.023, 95% CI, 2.260-11.166); having been checked for alcohol once in the last 3 years (vs. not checked; OR = 3.124, 95% CI, 2.040-4,783); and seldom drinking an energetic beverage such as coffee when tired (vs. always do; OR = 6.822, 95% CI, 2.619-17.769) all suffered a higher risk of being involved in a car accident. The results obtained with regard to behavioral factors meet the majority of the risk factors associated with car accidents referred to in the literature. This study highlights the relation of relatively minor accidents (the majority with no injuries) with an urban (or semi-urban) context and involving older drivers. These accidents are not usually the focus of road safety literature (mainly death and serious health loss) but, in addition to the economic costs involved, they can have a huge impact on road safety (e.g., pedestrian). Specifically, the following interventions can be proposed: more detailed clinical examinations to identify real competencies to drive especially in older drivers (active aging can constitute a new challenge in road safety and new paradigms can arise) and education campaigns on how to cope with fatigue. Future studies in large samples and not based on self-reported behaviors should be developed.

Evaluation of methods for predicting rail-highway crossing hazards.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1986-01-01

The need for improvement at a rail/highway crossing typically is based on the Expected Accident Rate (EAR) in conjunction with other criteria carrying lesser weight. In recent years new models for assessing the need for improvements have been develop...

Modeling traffic accidents at signalized intersections in the city of Norfolk, VA.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-12-31

This study was an attempt to apply a proactive approach using traffic pattern and signalized intersection characteristics to predict accident rates at signalized intersections in a citys arterial network. An earlier analysis of accident data at se...

Risk analysis of urban gas pipeline network based on improved bow-tie model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, M. J.; You, Q. J.; Yue, Z.

2017-11-01

Gas pipeline network is a major hazard source in urban areas. In the event of an accident, there could be grave consequences. In order to understand more clearly the causes and consequences of gas pipeline network accidents, and to develop prevention and mitigation measures, the author puts forward the application of improved bow-tie model to analyze risks of urban gas pipeline network. The improved bow-tie model analyzes accident causes from four aspects: human, materials, environment and management; it also analyzes the consequences from four aspects: casualty, property loss, environment and society. Then it quantifies the causes and consequences. Risk identification, risk analysis, risk assessment, risk control, and risk management will be clearly shown in the model figures. Then it can suggest prevention and mitigation measures accordingly to help reduce accident rate of gas pipeline network. The results show that the whole process of an accident can be visually investigated using the bow-tie model. It can also provide reasons for and predict consequences of an unfortunate event. It is of great significance in order to analyze leakage failure of gas pipeline network.

Bus accident analysis of routes with/without bus priority.

PubMed

Goh, Kelvin Chun Keong; Currie, Graham; Sarvi, Majid; Logan, David

2014-04-01

This paper summarises findings on road safety performance and bus-involved accidents in Melbourne along roads where bus priority measures had been applied. Results from an empirical analysis of the accident types revealed significant reduction in the proportion of accidents involving buses hitting stationary objects and vehicles, which suggests the effect of bus priority in addressing manoeuvrability issues for buses. A mixed-effects negative binomial (MENB) regression and back-propagation neural network (BPNN) modelling of bus accidents considering wider influences on accident rates at a route section level also revealed significant safety benefits when bus priority is provided. Sensitivity analyses done on the BPNN model showed general agreement in the predicted accident frequency between both models. The slightly better performance recorded by the MENB model results suggests merits in adopting a mixed effects modelling approach for accident count prediction in practice given its capability to account for unobserved location and time-specific factors. A major implication of this research is that bus priority in Melbourne's context acts to improve road safety and should be a major consideration for road management agencies when implementing bus priority and road schemes. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling road accidents: An approach using structural time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Junus, Noor Wahida Md; Ismail, Mohd Tahir

2014-09-01

In this paper, the trend of road accidents in Malaysia for the years 2001 until 2012 was modelled using a structural time series approach. The structural time series model was identified using a stepwise method, and the residuals for each model were tested. The best-fitted model was chosen based on the smallest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and prediction error variance. In order to check the quality of the model, a data validation procedure was performed by predicting the monthly number of road accidents for the year 2012. Results indicate that the best specification of the structural time series model to represent road accidents is the local level with a seasonal model.

Clustering-based classification of road traffic accidents using hierarchical clustering and artificial neural networks.

PubMed

Taamneh, Madhar; Taamneh, Salah; Alkheder, Sharaf

2017-09-01

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been widely used in predicting the severity of road traffic crashes. All available information about previously occurred accidents is typically used for building a single prediction model (i.e., classifier). Too little attention has been paid to the differences between these accidents, leading, in most cases, to build less accurate predictors. Hierarchical clustering is a well-known clustering method that seeks to group data by creating a hierarchy of clusters. Using hierarchical clustering and ANNs, a clustering-based classification approach for predicting the injury severity of road traffic accidents was proposed. About 6000 road accidents occurred over a six-year period from 2008 to 2013 in Abu Dhabi were used throughout this study. In order to reduce the amount of variation in data, hierarchical clustering was applied on the data set to organize it into six different forms, each with different number of clusters (i.e., clusters from 1 to 6). Two ANN models were subsequently built for each cluster of accidents in each generated form. The first model was built and validated using all accidents (training set), whereas only 66% of the accidents were used to build the second model, and the remaining 34% were used to test it (percentage split). Finally, the weighted average accuracy was computed for each type of models in each from of data. The results show that when testing the models using the training set, clustering prior to classification achieves (11%-16%) more accuracy than without using clustering, while the percentage split achieves (2%-5%) more accuracy. The results also suggest that partitioning the accidents into six clusters achieves the best accuracy if both types of models are taken into account.

Serious injury prediction algorithm based on large-scale data and under-triage control.

PubMed

Nishimoto, Tetsuya; Mukaigawa, Kosuke; Tominaga, Shigeru; Lubbe, Nils; Kiuchi, Toru; Motomura, Tomokazu; Matsumoto, Hisashi

2017-01-01

The present study was undertaken to construct an algorithm for an advanced automatic collision notification system based on national traffic accident data compiled by Japanese police. While US research into the development of a serious-injury prediction algorithm is based on a logistic regression algorithm using the National Automotive Sampling System/Crashworthiness Data System, the present injury prediction algorithm was based on comprehensive police data covering all accidents that occurred across Japan. The particular focus of this research is to improve the rescue of injured vehicle occupants in traffic accidents, and the present algorithm assumes the use of an onboard event data recorder data from which risk factors such as pseudo delta-V, vehicle impact location, seatbelt wearing or non-wearing, involvement in a single impact or multiple impact crash and the occupant's age can be derived. As a result, a simple and handy algorithm suited for onboard vehicle installation was constructed from a sample of half of the available police data. The other half of the police data was applied to the validation testing of this new algorithm using receiver operating characteristic analysis. An additional validation was conducted using in-depth investigation of accident injuries in collaboration with prospective host emergency care institutes. The validated algorithm, named the TOYOTA-Nihon University algorithm, proved to be as useful as the US URGENCY and other existing algorithms. Furthermore, an under-triage control analysis found that the present algorithm could achieve an under-triage rate of less than 10% by setting a threshold of 8.3%. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

FY2016 Ceramic Fuels Development Annual Highlights

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mcclellan, Kenneth James

Key challenges for the Advanced Fuels Campaign are the development of fuel technologies to enable major increases in fuel performance (safety, reliability, power and burnup) beyond current technologies, and development of characterization methods and predictive fuel performance models to enable more efficient development and licensing of advanced fuels. Ceramic fuel development activities for fiscal year 2016 fell within the areas of 1) National and International Technical Integration, 2) Advanced Accident Tolerant Ceramic Fuel Development, 3) Advanced Techniques and Reference Materials Development, and 4) Fabrication of Enriched Ceramic Fuels. High uranium density fuels were the focus of the ceramic fuels efforts.more » Accomplishments for FY16 primarily reflect the prioritization of identification and assessment of new ceramic fuels for light water reactors which have enhanced accident tolerance while also maintaining or improving normal operation performance, and exploration of advanced post irradiation examination techniques which will support more efficient testing and qualification of new fuel systems.« less

A comparison of the hazard perception ability of accident-involved and accident-free motorcycle riders.

PubMed

Cheng, Andy S K; Ng, Terry C K; Lee, Hoe C

2011-07-01

Hazard perception is the ability to read the road and is closely related to involvement in traffic accidents. It consists of both cognitive and behavioral components. Within the cognitive component, visual attention is an important function of driving whereas driving behavior, which represents the behavioral component, can affect the hazard perception of the driver. Motorcycle riders are the most vulnerable types of road user. The primary purpose of this study was to deepen our understanding of the correlation of different subtypes of visual attention and driving violation behaviors and their effect on hazard perception between accident-free and accident-involved motorcycle riders. Sixty-three accident-free and 46 accident-involved motorcycle riders undertook four neuropsychological tests of attention (Digit Vigilance Test, Color Trails Test-1, Color Trails Test-2, and Symbol Digit Modalities Test), filled out the Chinese Motorcycle Rider Driving Violation (CMRDV) Questionnaire, and viewed a road-user-based hazard situation with an eye-tracking system to record the response latencies to potentially dangerous traffic situations. The results showed that both the divided and selective attention of accident-involved motorcycle riders were significantly inferior to those of accident-free motorcycle riders, and that accident-involved riders exhibited significantly higher driving violation behaviors and took longer to identify hazardous situations compared to their accident-free counterparts. However, the results of the regression analysis showed that aggressive driving violation CMRDV score significantly predicted hazard perception and accident involvement of motorcycle riders. Given that all participants were mature and experienced motorcycle riders, the most plausible explanation for the differences between them is their driving style (influenced by an undesirable driving attitude), rather than skill deficits per se. The present study points to the importance of conceptualizing the influence of different driving behaviors so as to enrich our understanding of the role of human factors in road accidents and consequently develop effective countermeasures to prevent traffic accidents involving motorcycles. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Identification of the actual state and entity availability forecasting in power engineering using neural-network technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Protalinsky, O. M.; Shcherbatov, I. A.; Stepanov, P. V.

2017-11-01

A growing number of severe accidents in RF call for the need to develop a system that could prevent emergency situations. In a number of cases accident rate is stipulated by careless inspections and neglects in developing repair programs. Across the country rates of accidents are growing because of a so-called “human factor”. In this regard, there has become urgent the problem of identification of the actual state of technological facilities in power engineering using data on engineering processes running and applying artificial intelligence methods. The present work comprises four model states of manufacturing equipment of engineering companies: defect, failure, preliminary situation, accident. Defect evaluation is carried out using both data from SCADA and ASEPCR and qualitative information (verbal assessments of experts in subject matter, photo- and video materials of surveys processed using pattern recognition methods in order to satisfy the requirements). Early identification of defects makes possible to predict the failure of manufacturing equipment using mathematical techniques of artificial neural network. In its turn, this helps to calculate predicted characteristics of reliability of engineering facilities using methods of reliability theory. Calculation of the given parameters provides the real-time estimation of remaining service life of manufacturing equipment for the whole operation period. The neural networks model allows evaluating possibility of failure of a piece of equipment consistent with types of actual defects and their previous reasons. The article presents the grounds for a choice of training and testing samples for the developed neural network, evaluates the adequacy of the neural networks model, and shows how the model can be used to forecast equipment failure. There have been carried out simulating experiments using a computer and retrospective samples of actual values for power engineering companies. The efficiency of the developed model for different types of manufacturing equipment has been proved. There have been offered other research areas in terms of the presented subject matter.

Dynamics Modeling and Simulation of Large Transport Airplanes in Upset Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Foster, John V.; Cunningham, Kevin; Fremaux, Charles M.; Shah, Gautam H.; Stewart, Eric C.; Rivers, Robert A.; Wilborn, James E.; Gato, William

2005-01-01

As part of NASA's Aviation Safety and Security Program, research has been in progress to develop aerodynamic modeling methods for simulations that accurately predict the flight dynamics characteristics of large transport airplanes in upset conditions. The motivation for this research stems from the recognition that simulation is a vital tool for addressing loss-of-control accidents, including applications to pilot training, accident reconstruction, and advanced control system analysis. The ultimate goal of this effort is to contribute to the reduction of the fatal accident rate due to loss-of-control. Research activities have involved accident analyses, wind tunnel testing, and piloted simulation. Results have shown that significant improvements in simulation fidelity for upset conditions, compared to current training simulations, can be achieved using state-of-the-art wind tunnel testing and aerodynamic modeling methods. This paper provides a summary of research completed to date and includes discussion on key technical results, lessons learned, and future research needs.

Predictive factors for cerebrovascular accidents after thoracic endovascular aortic repair.

PubMed

Mariscalco, Giovanni; Piffaretti, Gabriele; Tozzi, Matteo; Bacuzzi, Alessandro; Carrafiello, Giampaolo; Sala, Andrea; Castelli, Patrizio

2009-12-01

Cerebrovascular accidents are devastating and worrisome complications after thoracic endovascular aortic repair. The aim of this study was to determine cerebrovascular accident predictors after thoracic endovascular aortic repair. Between January 2001 and June 2008, 76 patients treated with thoracic endovascular aortic repair were prospectively enrolled. The study cohort included 61 men; mean age was 65.4 +/- 16.8 years. All patients underwent a specific neurologic assessment on an hourly basis postoperatively to detect neurologic deficits. Cerebrovascular accidents were diagnosed on the basis of physical examination, tomography scan or magnetic resonance imaging, or autopsy. Cerebrovascular accidents occurred in 8 (10.5%) patients, including 4 transient ischemic attack and 4 major strokes. Four cases were observed within the first 24-hours. Multivariable analysis revealed that anatomic incompleteness of the Willis circle (odds ratio [OR] 17.19, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.10 to 140.66), as well as the presence of coronary artery disease (OR 6.86, 95 CI% 1.18 to 40.05), were independently associated with postoperative cerebrovascular accident development. Overall hospital mortality was 9.2%, with no significant difference for patients hit by cerebrovascular accidents (25.0% vs 7.3%, p = 0.102). Preexisting coronary artery disease, reflecting a severe diseased aorta and anomalies of Willis circle are independent cerebrovascular accident predictors after thoracic endovascular aortic repair procedures. A careful evaluation of the arch vessels and cerebral vascularization should be mandatory for patients suitable for thoracic endovascular aortic repair.

Evaluation of Neutron Response of Criticality Accident Alarm System Detector to Quasi-Monoenergetic 24 keV Neutrons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsujimura, Norio; Yoshida, Tadayoshi; Yashima, Hiroshi

The criticality accident alarm system (CAAS), which was recently developed and installed at the Japan Atomic Energy Agency's Tokai Reprocessing Plant, consists of a plastic scintillator combined with a cadmium-lined polyethylene moderator and thereby responds to both neutrons and gamma rays. To evaluate the neutron absorbed dose rate response of the CAAS detector, a 24 keV quasi-monoenergetic neutron irradiation experiment was performed at the B-1 facility of the Kyoto University Research Reactor. The detector's evaluated neutron response was confirmed to agree reasonably well with prior computer-predicted responses.

Core cooling under accident conditions at the high flux beam reactor (HFBR)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tichler, P.; Cheng, L.; Fauske, H.

In certain accident scenarios, e.g. loss of coolant accidents (LOCA) all forced flow cooling is lost. Decay heating causes a temperature increase in the core coolant and the resulting thermal buoyancy causes a reversal of the flow direction to a natural circulation mode. Although there was experimental evidence during the reactor design period (1958--1963) that the heat removal capacity in the fully developed natural circulation cooling mode was relatively high, it was not possible to make a confident prediction of the heat removal capacity during the transition from downflow to natural circulation. In a LOCA scenario where even limited fuelmore » damage occurs and natural circulation is established, fission product gases could be carried from the damaged fuel by steam into areas where operator access is required to maintain the core in a coolable configuration. This would force evacuation of the building and lead to extensive core damage. As a result the HFBR was shut down by the Department of Energy (DOE) and an extensive review of the HFBR was initiated. In an effort to address this issue BNL developed a model designed to predict the heat removal limit during flow reversal that was found to be in good agreement with the test results. Currently a thermal-hydraulic test program is being developed to provide a more realistic and defensible estimate of the flow reversal heat removal limit so that the reactor power level can be increased.« less

Human Brain Modeling with Its Anatomical Structure and Realistic Material Properties for Brain Injury Prediction.

PubMed

Atsumi, Noritoshi; Nakahira, Yuko; Tanaka, Eiichi; Iwamoto, Masami

2018-05-01

Impairments of executive brain function after traumatic brain injury (TBI) due to head impacts in traffic accidents need to be obviated. Finite element (FE) analyses with a human brain model facilitate understanding of the TBI mechanisms. However, conventional brain FE models do not suitably describe the anatomical structure in the deep brain, which is a critical region for executive brain function, and the material properties of brain parenchyma. In this study, for better TBI prediction, a novel brain FE model with anatomical structure in the deep brain was developed. The developed model comprises a constitutive model of brain parenchyma considering anisotropy and strain rate dependency. Validation was performed against postmortem human subject test data associated with brain deformation during head impact. Brain injury analyses were performed using head acceleration curves obtained from reconstruction analysis of rear-end collision with a human whole-body FE model. The difference in structure was found to affect the regions of strain concentration, while the difference in material model contributed to the peak strain value. The injury prediction result by the proposed model was consistent with the characteristics in the neuroimaging data of TBI patients due to traffic accidents.

Psychological Distress and Post-Traumatic Symptoms Following Occupational Accidents

PubMed Central

Ghisi, Marta; Novara, Caterina; Buodo, Giulia; Kimble, Matthew O.; Scozzari, Simona; Di Natale, Arianna; Sanavio, Ezio; Palomba, Daniela

2013-01-01

Depression and post-traumatic stress disorder frequently occur as a consequence of occupational accidents. To date, research has been primarily focused on high-risk workers, such as police officers or firefighters, and has rarely considered individuals whose occupational environment involves the risk of severe, but not necessarily life-threatening, injury. Therefore, the present study was aimed at assessing the psychological consequences of accidents occurring in several occupational settings (e.g., construction and industry). Thirty-eight victims of occupational accidents (injured workers) and 38 gender-, age-, and years of education-matched workers who never experienced a work accident (control group) were recruited. All participants underwent a semi-structured interview administered by a trained psychologist, and then were requested to fill in the questionnaires. Injured workers reported more severe anxious, post-traumatic and depressive symptoms, and poorer coping skills, as compared to controls. In the injured group low levels of resilience predicted post-traumatic symptomatology, whereas the degree of physical injury and the length of time since the accident did not play a predictive role. The results suggest that occupational accidents may result in a disabling psychopathological condition, and that a brief psychological evaluation should be included in the assessment of seriously injured workers. PMID:25379258

Combined Prediction Model of Death Toll for Road Traffic Accidents Based on Independent and Dependent Variables

PubMed Central

Zhong-xiang, Feng; Shi-sheng, Lu; Wei-hua, Zhang; Nan-nan, Zhang

2014-01-01

In order to build a combined model which can meet the variation rule of death toll data for road traffic accidents and can reflect the influence of multiple factors on traffic accidents and improve prediction accuracy for accidents, the Verhulst model was built based on the number of death tolls for road traffic accidents in China from 2002 to 2011; and car ownership, population, GDP, highway freight volume, highway passenger transportation volume, and highway mileage were chosen as the factors to build the death toll multivariate linear regression model. Then the two models were combined to be a combined prediction model which has weight coefficient. Shapley value method was applied to calculate the weight coefficient by assessing contributions. Finally, the combined model was used to recalculate the number of death tolls from 2002 to 2011, and the combined model was compared with the Verhulst and multivariate linear regression models. The results showed that the new model could not only characterize the death toll data characteristics but also quantify the degree of influence to the death toll by each influencing factor and had high accuracy as well as strong practicability. PMID:25610454

Combined prediction model of death toll for road traffic accidents based on independent and dependent variables.

PubMed

Feng, Zhong-xiang; Lu, Shi-sheng; Zhang, Wei-hua; Zhang, Nan-nan

2014-01-01

In order to build a combined model which can meet the variation rule of death toll data for road traffic accidents and can reflect the influence of multiple factors on traffic accidents and improve prediction accuracy for accidents, the Verhulst model was built based on the number of death tolls for road traffic accidents in China from 2002 to 2011; and car ownership, population, GDP, highway freight volume, highway passenger transportation volume, and highway mileage were chosen as the factors to build the death toll multivariate linear regression model. Then the two models were combined to be a combined prediction model which has weight coefficient. Shapley value method was applied to calculate the weight coefficient by assessing contributions. Finally, the combined model was used to recalculate the number of death tolls from 2002 to 2011, and the combined model was compared with the Verhulst and multivariate linear regression models. The results showed that the new model could not only characterize the death toll data characteristics but also quantify the degree of influence to the death toll by each influencing factor and had high accuracy as well as strong practicability.

The "killing zone" revisited: serial nonlinearities predict general aviation accident rates from pilot total flight hours.

PubMed

Knecht, William R

2013-11-01

Is there a "killing zone" (Craig, 2001)-a range of pilot flight time over which general aviation (GA) pilots are at greatest risk? More broadly, can we predict accident rates, given a pilot's total flight hours (TFH)? These questions interest pilots, aviation policy makers, insurance underwriters, and researchers alike. Most GA research studies implicitly assume that accident rates are linearly related to TFH, but that relation may actually be multiply nonlinear. This work explores the ability of serial nonlinear modeling functions to predict GA accident rates from noisy rate data binned by TFH. Two sets of National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB)/Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) data were log-transformed, then curve-fit to a gamma-pdf-based function. Despite high rate-noise, this produced weighted goodness-of-fit (Rw(2)) estimates of .654 and .775 for non-instrument-rated (non-IR) and instrument-rated pilots (IR) respectively. Serial-nonlinear models could be useful to directly predict GA accident rates from TFH, and as an independent variable or covariate to control for flight risk during data analysis. Applied to FAA data, these models imply that the "killing zone" may be broader than imagined. Relatively high risk for an individual pilot may extend well beyond the 2000-h mark before leveling off to a baseline rate. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Quantifying the risk of extreme aviation accidents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, Kumer Pial; Dey, Asim Kumer

2016-12-01

Air travel is considered a safe means of transportation. But when aviation accidents do occur they often result in fatalities. Fortunately, the most extreme accidents occur rarely. However, 2014 was the deadliest year in the past decade causing 111 plane crashes, and among them worst four crashes cause 298, 239, 162 and 116 deaths. In this study, we want to assess the risk of the catastrophic aviation accidents by studying historical aviation accidents. Applying a generalized Pareto model we predict the maximum fatalities from an aviation accident in future. The fitted model is compared with some of its competitive models. The uncertainty in the inferences are quantified using simulated aviation accident series, generated by bootstrap resampling and Monte Carlo simulations.

A crash-prediction model for multilane roads.

PubMed

Caliendo, Ciro; Guida, Maurizio; Parisi, Alessandra

2007-07-01

Considerable research has been carried out in recent years to establish relationships between crashes and traffic flow, geometric infrastructure characteristics and environmental factors for two-lane rural roads. Crash-prediction models focused on multilane rural roads, however, have rarely been investigated. In addition, most research has paid but little attention to the safety effects of variables such as stopping sight distance and pavement surface characteristics. Moreover, the statistical approaches have generally included Poisson and Negative Binomial regression models, whilst Negative Multinomial regression model has been used to a lesser extent. Finally, as far as the authors are aware, prediction models involving all the above-mentioned factors have still not been developed in Italy for multilane roads, such as motorways. Thus, in this paper crash-prediction models for a four-lane median-divided Italian motorway were set up on the basis of accident data observed during a 5-year monitoring period extending between 1999 and 2003. The Poisson, Negative Binomial and Negative Multinomial regression models, applied separately to tangents and curves, were used to model the frequency of accident occurrence. Model parameters were estimated by the Maximum Likelihood Method, and the Generalized Likelihood Ratio Test was applied to detect the significant variables to be included in the model equation. Goodness-of-fit was measured by means of both the explained fraction of total variation and the explained fraction of systematic variation. The Cumulative Residuals Method was also used to test the adequacy of a regression model throughout the range of each variable. The candidate set of explanatory variables was: length (L), curvature (1/R), annual average daily traffic (AADT), sight distance (SD), side friction coefficient (SFC), longitudinal slope (LS) and the presence of a junction (J). Separate prediction models for total crashes and for fatal and injury crashes only were considered. For curves it is shown that significant variables are L, 1/R and AADT, whereas for tangents they are L, AADT and junctions. The effect of rain precipitation was analysed on the basis of hourly rainfall data and assumptions about drying time. It is shown that a wet pavement significantly increases the number of crashes. The models developed in this paper for Italian motorways appear to be useful for many applications such as the detection of critical factors, the estimation of accident reduction due to infrastructure and pavement improvement, and the predictions of accidents counts when comparing different design options. Thus this research may represent a point of reference for engineers in adjusting or designing multilane roads.

Do claim factors predict health care utilization after transport accidents?

PubMed

Elbers, Nieke A; Cuijpers, Pim; Akkermans, Arno J; Collie, Alex; Ruseckaite, Rasa; Bruinvels, David J

2013-04-01

Injured people who are involved in compensation processes have less recovery and less well-being compared to those not involved in claims settlement procedures. This study investigated whether claim factors, such as no-fault versus common law claims, the number of independent medical assessments, and legal disputes, predict health care utilization after transport accidents. The sample consisted of 68,911 claimants who lodged a compensation claim at the Transport Accident Commission (TAC) in Victoria, Australia, between 2000 and 2005. The main outcome measure was health care utilization, which was defined as the number of visits to health care providers (e.g. general practitioners, physiotherapists, psychologists) during the 5 year period post-accident. After correction for gender, age, role in accident, injury type, and severity of injury, it was found that independent medical assessments were associated with greater health care utilization (β=.36, p<.001). Involvement in common law claims and legal disputes were both significantly related to health care utilization (respectively β=.05, p<.001 and β=-.02, p<.001), however, the standardized betas were negligible, therefore the effect is not clinically relevant. A model including claim factors predicted the number of health care visits significantly better (ΔR(2)=.08, p<.001) than a model including only gender, age, role in accident, injury type, and severity of injury. The positive association between the number of independent medical assessments and health care utilization after transport accidents may imply that numerous medical assessments have a negative effect on claimants' health. However, further research is needed to determine a causal relationship. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analyzing the causation of a railway accident based on a complex network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Xin; Li, Ke-Ping; Luo, Zi-Yan; Zhou, Jin

2014-02-01

In this paper, a new model is constructed for the causation analysis of railway accident based on the complex network theory. In the model, the nodes are defined as various manifest or latent accident causal factors. By employing the complex network theory, especially its statistical indicators, the railway accident as well as its key causations can be analyzed from the overall perspective. As a case, the “7.23” China—Yongwen railway accident is illustrated based on this model. The results show that the inspection of signals and the checking of line conditions before trains run played an important role in this railway accident. In conclusion, the constructed model gives a theoretical clue for railway accident prediction and, hence, greatly reduces the occurrence of railway accidents.

A few seconds to have an accident, a long time to recover: consequences for road accident victims from the ESPARR cohort 2 years after the accident.

PubMed

Tournier, Charlène; Charnay, Pierrette; Tardy, Hélène; Chossegros, Laetitia; Carnis, Laurent; Hours, Martine

2014-11-01

The aim of the present study was to describe the consequences of a road accident in adults, taking account of the type of road user, and to determine predictive factors for consequences at 2 years. Prospective follow-up study. The cohort was composed of 1168 victims of road traffic accidents, aged ≥16 years. Two years after the accident, 912 victims completed a self-administered questionnaire. Weighted logistic regression models were implemented to compare casualties still reporting impact related to the accident versus those reporting no residual impact. Five outcomes were analysed: unrecovered health status, impact on occupation or studies, on familial or affective life, on leisure or sport activities and but also the financial difficulties related to the accident. 46.1% of respondents were motorised four-wheel users, 29.6% motorised two-wheel (including quad) users, 13.3% pedestrians (including inline skate and push scooter users) and 11.1% cyclists. 53.3% reported unrecovered health status, 32.0% persisting impact on occupation or studies, 25.2% on familial or affective life, 46.9% on leisure or sport activities and 20.2% still had accident-related financial difficulties. Type of user, adjusted on age and gender, was linked to unrecovered health status and to impact on leisure or sport activities. When global severity (as measured by NISS) was integrated in the previous model, type of user was also associated with impact on occupation or studies. Type of user was further associated with impact on occupation or studies and on leisure or sport activities when global severity and the sociodemographic data obtained at inclusion were taken into account. It was not, however, related to any of the outcomes studied here, when the models focused on the injured body region. Finally, type of road user did not seem, on the various predictive models, to be related to financial difficulties due to the accident or to impact on familial or affective life. Overall, victims were affected by their accident even 2 years after it occurred. The severity of lesions induced by the accident was the main predictive factor. However, considering lesion as intermediary factors between the accident and the recovery status at 2 year post-accident, impact on health status was lower for cyclists than M4W users or M2W users. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Prediction of trauma-specific death rates of pedestrians of Fars Province, Iran.

PubMed

Akbari, Maryam; Tabrizi, Reza; Heydari, Seyed Taghi; Sekhavati, Eghbal; Moosazadeh, Mahmood; Lankarani, Kamran Bagheri

2015-09-01

Pedestrians are the most vulnerable group to accidents among road users. Due to the well-known concerns and complications of accidents involving pedestrians, the aim of this study was to identify the rate of such accidents for five-year period. We analyzed all fatalities among pedestrians caused by traffic accidents during years of 2009-2013 in Fars Province in Iran. The study was a cross-sectional study in which logistic regression analysis was used to predict the death rate among pedestrians. Sensitivity analysis using the Monte Carlo method was used to increase the accuracy of the results. Then, we predicted the death rates for the years 2014-2018 predicted and compared the results with the actual data from the previous five-year period (2009-2013). During 2009-2013, 1723 out of 8689 (20.3%) of the people killed in traffic accidents were pedestrians. The death rate for male pedestrians in 2011 was estimated to be 10.86 per 100,000 (with an uncertainty interval of 95% giving a range of 9.85-12.05 per 100,000). Compared to the data for 2006, this represented a decrease of 20% (with a mean decrease of 4% per year). Based on these data, the death date in 2018n was projected to be 8.08 per 100,000 (with an uncertainty interval of 95% giving a range of 7.26-8.87). Similar data and analysis for women indicated that the reduction in the rate of fatalities has been smaller than that for men in recent years, i.e., 2.2% versus 4%. Although great progress has been made in reducing traffic accidents, to date, the death rate is still high among pedestrians. It is essential to continue to find ways to reduce traffic accidents and the pedestrians' deaths associated with them, especially among the elderly, who make up a disproportionate fraction of the deaths.

Prediction of trauma-specific death rates of pedestrians of Fars Province, Iran

PubMed Central

Akbari, Maryam; Tabrizi, Reza; Heydari, Seyed Taghi; Sekhavati, Eghbal; Moosazadeh, Mahmood; Lankarani, Kamran Bagheri

2015-01-01

Introduction: Pedestrians are the most vulnerable group to accidents among road users. Due to the well-known concerns and complications of accidents involving pedestrians, the aim of this study was to identify the rate of such accidents for five-year period. Methods: We analyzed all fatalities among pedestrians caused by traffic accidents during years of 2009–2013 in Fars Province in Iran. The study was a cross-sectional study in which logistic regression analysis was used to predict the death rate among pedestrians. Sensitivity analysis using the Monte Carlo method was used to increase the accuracy of the results. Then, we predicted the death rates for the years 2014–2018 predicted and compared the results with the actual data from the previous five-year period (2009–2013). Results: During 2009–2013, 1723 out of 8689 (20.3%) of the people killed in traffic accidents were pedestrians. The death rate for male pedestrians in 2011 was estimated to be 10.86 per 100,000 (with an uncertainty interval of 95% giving a range of 9.85–12.05 per 100,000). Compared to the data for 2006, this represented a decrease of 20% (with a mean decrease of 4% per year). Based on these data, the death date in 2018n was projected to be 8.08 per 100,000 (with an uncertainty interval of 95% giving a range of 7.26–8.87). Similar data and analysis for women indicated that the reduction in the rate of fatalities has been smaller than that for men in recent years, i.e., 2.2% versus 4%. Conclusion: Although great progress has been made in reducing traffic accidents, to date, the death rate is still high among pedestrians. It is essential to continue to find ways to reduce traffic accidents and the pedestrians’ deaths associated with them, especially among the elderly, who make up a disproportionate fraction of the deaths. PMID:26435824

Development of a tool for calculating early internal doses in the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident based on atmospheric dispersion simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurihara, Osamu; Kim, Eunjoo; Kunishima, Naoaki; Tani, Kotaro; Ishikawa, Tetsuo; Furuyama, Kazuo; Hashimoto, Shozo; Akashi, Makoto

2017-09-01

A tool was developed to facilitate the calculation of the early internal doses to residents involved in the Fukushima Nuclear Disaster based on atmospheric transport and dispersion model (ATDM) simulations performed using Worldwide version of System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Information 2nd version (WSPEEDI-II) together with personal behavior data containing the history of the whereabouts of individul's after the accident. The tool generates hourly-averaged air concentration data for the simulation grids nearest to an individual's whereabouts using WSPEEDI-II datasets for the subsequent calculation of internal doses due to inhalation. This paper presents an overview of the developed tool and provides tentative comparisons between direct measurement-based and ATDM-based results regarding the internal doses received by 421 persons from whom personal behavior data available.

ADAM: An Accident Diagnostic,Analysis and Management System - Applications to Severe Accident Simulation and Management

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zavisca, M.J.; Khatib-Rahbar, M.; Esmaili, H.

2002-07-01

The Accident Diagnostic, Analysis and Management (ADAM) computer code has been developed as a tool for on-line applications to accident diagnostics, simulation, management and training. ADAM's severe accident simulation capabilities incorporate a balance of mechanistic, phenomenologically based models with simple parametric approaches for elements including (but not limited to) thermal hydraulics; heat transfer; fuel heatup, meltdown, and relocation; fission product release and transport; combustible gas generation and combustion; and core-concrete interaction. The overall model is defined by a relatively coarse spatial nodalization of the reactor coolant and containment systems and is advanced explicitly in time. The result is to enablemore » much faster than real time (i.e., 100 to 1000 times faster than real time on a personal computer) applications to on-line investigations and/or accident management training. Other features of the simulation module include provision for activation of water injection, including the Engineered Safety Features, as well as other mechanisms for the assessment of accident management and recovery strategies and the evaluation of PSA success criteria. The accident diagnostics module of ADAM uses on-line access to selected plant parameters (as measured by plant sensors) to compute the thermodynamic state of the plant, and to predict various margins to safety (e.g., times to pressure vessel saturation and steam generator dryout). Rule-based logic is employed to classify the measured data as belonging to one of a number of likely scenarios based on symptoms, and a number of 'alarms' are generated to signal the state of the reactor and containment. This paper will address the features and limitations of ADAM with particular focus on accident simulation and management. (authors)« less

Prediction accident triangle in maintenance of underground mine facilities using Poisson distribution analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khuluqi, M. H.; Prapdito, R. R.; Sambodo, F. P.

2018-04-01

In Indonesia, mining is categorized as a hazardous industry. In recent years, a dramatic increase of mining equipment and technological complexities had resulted in higher maintenance expectations that accompanied by the changes in the working conditions, especially on safety. Ensuring safety during the process of conducting maintenance works in underground mine is important as an integral part of accident prevention programs. Accident triangle has provided a support to safety practitioner to draw a road map in preventing accidents. Poisson distribution is appropriate for the analysis of accidents at a specific site in a given time period. Based on the analysis of accident statistics in the underground mine maintenance of PT. Freeport Indonesia from 2011 through 2016, it is found that 12 minor accidents for 1 major accident and 66 equipment damages for 1 major accident as a new value of accident triangle. The result can be used for the future need for improving the accident prevention programs.

An investigation on fatality of drivers in vehicle-fixed object accidents on expressways in China: Using multinomial logistic regression model.

PubMed

Peng, Yong; Peng, Shuangling; Wang, Xinghua; Tan, Shiyang

2018-06-01

This study aims to identify the effects of characteristics of vehicle, roadway, driver, and environment on fatality of drivers in vehicle-fixed object accidents on expressways in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan district of Hunan province in China by developing multinomial logistic regression models. For this purpose, 121 vehicle-fixed object accidents from 2011-2017 are included in the modeling process. First, descriptive statistical analysis is made to understand the main characteristics of the vehicle-fixed object crashes. Then, 19 explanatory variables are selected, and correlation analysis of each two variables is conducted to choose the variables to be concluded. Finally, five multinomial logistic regression models including different independent variables are compared, and the model with best fitting and prediction capability is chosen as the final model. The results showed that the turning direction in avoiding fixed objects raised the possibility that drivers would die. About 64% of drivers died in the accident were found being ejected out of the car, of which 50% did not use a seatbelt before the fatal accidents. Drivers are likely to die when they encounter bad weather on the expressway. Drivers with less than 10 years of driving experience are more likely to die in these accidents. Fatigue or distracted driving is also a significant factor in fatality of drivers. Findings from this research provide an insight into reducing fatality of drivers in vehicle-fixed object accidents.

Assessment and prediction of road accident injuries trend using time-series models in Kurdistan.

PubMed

Parvareh, Maryam; Karimi, Asrin; Rezaei, Satar; Woldemichael, Abraha; Nili, Sairan; Nouri, Bijan; Nasab, Nader Esmail

2018-01-01

Road traffic accidents are commonly encountered incidents that can cause high-intensity injuries to the victims and have direct impacts on the members of the society. Iran has one of the highest incident rates of road traffic accidents. The objective of this study was to model the patterns of road traffic accidents leading to injury in Kurdistan province, Iran. A time-series analysis was conducted to characterize and predict the frequency of road traffic accidents that lead to injury in Kurdistan province. The injuries were categorized into three separate groups which were related to the car occupants, motorcyclists and pedestrian road traffic accident injuries. The Box-Jenkins time-series analysis was used to model the injury observations applying autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) from March 2009 to February 2015 and to predict the accidents up to 24 months later (February 2017). The analysis was carried out using R-3.4.2 statistical software package. A total of 5199 pedestrians, 9015 motorcyclists, and 28,906 car occupants' accidents were observed. The mean (SD) number of car occupant, motorcyclist and pedestrian accident injuries observed were 401.01 (SD 32.78), 123.70 (SD 30.18) and 71.19 (SD 17.92) per year, respectively. The best models for the pattern of car occupant, motorcyclist, and pedestrian injuries were the ARIMA (1, 0, 0), SARIMA (1, 0, 2) (1, 0, 0) 12 , and SARIMA (1, 1, 1) (0, 0, 1) 12 , respectively. The motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries showed a seasonal pattern and the peak was during summer (August). The minimum frequency for the motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries were observed during the late autumn and early winter (December and January). Our findings revealed that the observed motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries had a seasonal pattern that was explained by air temperature changes overtime. These findings call the need for close monitoring of the accidents during the high-risk periods in order to control and decrease the rate of the injuries.

International Exchange of Emergency Phase Information and Assessment: An Aid to Inter/National Decision Makers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sullivan, T J; Chino, M; Ehrhardt, J

2003-09-01

This paper discusses a collaborative project whose purpose is (1) to demonstrate the technical feasibility and mutual benefit of a system seeking early review or preview, in a ''quasi peer review'' mode, of nuclear accident plume and dose assessment predictions by four major international nuclear accident emergency response systems before release of their calculations to their respective national authorities followed by (2) sharing these results with responsible international authorities. The extreme sensitivity of the general public to any nuclear accident information has been a strong motivation to seek peer review prior to public release. Another intended objective of this workmore » is (3) the development of an affordable/accessible system for distribution of prediction results to countries having no prediction capabilities and (4) utilization of the link for exercises and collaboration studies. The project exploits the Internet as a ubiquitous communications medium, browser technology as a simple, user friendly interface, and low-cost PC level hardware. The participants are developing a web based dedicated node with ID and password access control, where the four systems can deposit a minimal set of XML-based data and graphics files, which are then displayed in a common identical map format. Side-by-side viewing and televideo conferencing will permit rapid evaluation, correction or elaboration of data, recalculation (if necessary) and should produce a strong level of consensus to assist international decision makers. Successful completion of this work could lead to easy utilization by national and international organizations, such as the IAEA and WHO, as well as by non-nuclear states at risk of a trans-boundary incursion on their territory.« less

Investigating the predictive of risk-taking attitudes and behaviors among Iranian drivers

PubMed Central

Habibi, Ehsanollah; Haghi, Azam; Maracy, Mohammad Reza

2014-01-01

Background: World Health Organization findings shows that up to year 2020 the number of fatality due to driving accidents will increases up to 65%, which is 80% is in developing countries. Iran has one of the highest rates of road traffic accident mortality rate in the world. Materials and Methods: The cross-sectional study was carried out in the center and west of Iran upon 540 ordinary and taxi drivers who were driving regularly from bus terminals and the travel agencies to other cities. Data collection tool is a questionnaire that measuring driving risk taking by two items of risky driving behaviors and risk taking attitudes. Findings: The results of this study showed that the averages of risk driving behaviors scores were higher than the average of risk taking attitudes scores. The results of logistic regression test showed that the risky driving behaviors can be a predictor of driving accidents due to individuals’ risk taking (P = 0.014). Among all these variables, attitude toward rule violations and speeding, aggressive driving and violation of the road laws respectively are important predictive of drivers’ risk taking (P < 0.0010). Discussion and Conclusion: Although attitude toward risk taking has been located at a low level by different ways, a desired result was not obtained from the reduction of those high risky behaviors; in fact, high-rate of accidents and traffic incidence in Iran indicates this matter well. PMID:24741659

Methods of measuring radioactivity in the environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Isaksson, Mats

In this thesis a variety of sampling methods have been utilised to assess the amount of deposited activity, mainly of 137Cs, from the Chernobyl accident and from the nuclear weapons tests. Starting with the Chernobyl accident in 1986 sampling of air and rain was used to determine the composition and amount of radioactive debris from this accident, brought to southern Sweden by the weather systems. The resulting deposition and its removal from urban areas was than studied through measurements on sewage sludge and water. The main part of the thesis considers methods of determining the amount of radiocaesium in the ground through soil sampling. In connection with soil sampling a method of optimising the sampling procedure has been developed and tested in the areas of Sweden which have a comparatively high amount of 137Cs from the Chernobyl accident. This method was then used in a survey of the activity in soil in Lund and Skane, divided between nuclear weapons fallout and fallout from the Chernobyl accident. By comparing the results from this survey with deposition calculated from precipitation measurements it was found possible to predict the deposition pattern over Skane for both nuclear weapons fallout and fallout from the Chernobyl accident. In addition, the vertical distribution of 137Cs has been modelled and the temporal variation of the depth distribution has been described.

A model for the release, dispersion and environmental impact of a postulated reactor accident from a submerged commercial nuclear power plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertch, Timothy Creston

1998-12-01

Nuclear power plants are inherently suitable for submerged applications and could provide power to the shore power grid or support future underwater applications. The technology exists today and the construction of a submerged commercial nuclear power plant may become desirable. A submerged reactor is safer to humans because the infinite supply of water for heat removal, particulate retention in the water column, sedimentation to the ocean floor and inherent shielding of the aquatic environment would significantly mitigate the effects of a reactor accident. A better understanding of reactor operation in this new environment is required to quantify the radioecological impact and to determine the suitability of this concept. The impact of release to the environment from a severe reactor accident is a new aspect of the field of marine radioecology. Current efforts have been centered on radioecological impacts of nuclear waste disposal, nuclear weapons testing fallout and shore nuclear plant discharges. This dissertation examines the environmental impact of a severe reactor accident in a submerged commercial nuclear power plant, modeling a postulated site on the Atlantic continental shelf adjacent to the United States. This effort models the effects of geography, decay, particle transport/dispersion, bioaccumulation and elimination with associated dose commitment. The use of a source term equivalent to the release from Chernobyl allows comparison between the impacts of that accident and the postulated submerged commercial reactor plant accident. All input parameters are evaluated using sensitivity analysis. The effect of the release on marine biota is determined. Study of the pathways to humans from gaseous radionuclides, consumption of contaminated marine biota and direct exposure as contaminated water reaches the shoreline is conducted. The model developed by this effort predicts a significant mitigation of the radioecological impact of the reactor accident release with a submerged commercial nuclear power plant. The two box models predict the most of the radio-ecological impact occurs during the first eight days after release. The most significant risk to humans is from consumption of biota. The reduction in impact to humans from a large radioactive release makes the concept worthy of further study.

Maritime Transportation Risk Assessment of Tianjin Port with Bayesian Belief Networks.

PubMed

Zhang, Jinfen; Teixeira, Ângelo P; Guedes Soares, C; Yan, Xinping; Liu, Kezhong

2016-06-01

This article develops a Bayesian belief network model for the prediction of accident consequences in the Tianjin port. The study starts with a statistical analysis of historical accident data of six years from 2008 to 2013. Then a Bayesian belief network is constructed to express the dependencies between the indicator variables and accident consequences. The statistics and expert knowledge are synthesized in the Bayesian belief network model to obtain the probability distribution of the consequences. By a sensitivity analysis, several indicator variables that have influence on the consequences are identified, including navigational area, ship type and time of the day. The results indicate that the consequences are most sensitive to the position where the accidents occurred, followed by time of day and ship length. The results also reflect that the navigational risk of the Tianjin port is at the acceptable level, despite that there is more room of improvement. These results can be used by the Maritime Safety Administration to take effective measures to enhance maritime safety in the Tianjin port. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 Accident Progression Uncertainty Analysis and Implications for Decommissioning of Fukushima Reactors - Volume I.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gauntt, Randall O.; Mattie, Patrick D.

Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) has conducted an uncertainty analysis (UA) on the Fukushima Daiichi unit (1F1) accident progression with the MELCOR code. The model used was developed for a previous accident reconstruction investigation jointly sponsored by the US Department of Energy (DOE) and Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). That study focused on reconstructing the accident progressions, as postulated by the limited plant data. This work was focused evaluation of uncertainty in core damage progression behavior and its effect on key figures-of-merit (e.g., hydrogen production, reactor damage state, fraction of intact fuel, vessel lower head failure). The primary intent of this studymore » was to characterize the range of predicted damage states in the 1F1 reactor considering state of knowledge uncertainties associated with MELCOR modeling of core damage progression and to generate information that may be useful in informing the decommissioning activities that will be employed to defuel the damaged reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. Additionally, core damage progression variability inherent in MELCOR modeling numerics is investigated.« less

Does Childhood Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder Predict Risk-Taking and Medical Illnesses in Adulthood?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ramos Olazagasti, Maria A.; Klein, Rachel G.; Mannuzza, Salvatore; Belsky, Erica Roizen; Hutchison, Jesse A.; Lashua-Shriftman, Erin C.; Castellanos, F. Xavier

2013-01-01

Objective: To test whether children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), free of conduct disorder (CD) in childhood (mean = 8 years), have elevated risk-taking, accidents, and medical illnesses in adulthood (mean = 41 years); whether development of CD influences risk-taking during adulthood; and whether exposure to…

Work time control, sleep & accident risk: A prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Tucker, Philip; Albrecht, Sophie; Kecklund, Göran; Beckers, Debby G J; Leineweber, Constanze

We examined whether the beneficial impact of work time control (WTC) on sleep leads to lower accident risk, using data from a nationally representative survey conducted in Sweden. Logistic regressions examined WTC in 2010 and 2012 as predictors of accidents occurring in the subsequent 2 years (N = 4840 and 4337, respectively). Sleep disturbance and frequency of short sleeps in 2012 were examined as potential mediators of the associations between WTC in 2010 and subsequent accidents as reported in 2014 (N = 3636). All analyses adjusted for age, sex, education, occupational category, weekly work hours, shift work status, job control and perceived accident risk at work. In both waves, overall WTC was inversely associated with accidents (p = 0.048 and p = 0.038, respectively). Analyses of the sub-dimensions of WTC indicated that Control over Daily Hours (influence over start and finish times, and over length of shift) did not predict accidents in either wave, while Control over Time-off (CoT; influence over taking breaks, running private errands during work and taking paid leave) predicted fewer accidents in both waves (p = 0.013 and p = 0.010). Sleep disturbance in 2012 mediated associations between WTC/CoT in 2010 and accidents in 2014, although effects' sizes were small (effectWTC = -0.006, 95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.018 to -0.001; effectCoT = -0.009, 95%CI = -0.022 to -0.001; unstandardized coefficients), with the indirect effects of sleep disturbance accounting for less than 5% of the total direct and indirect effects. Frequency of short sleeps was not a significant mediator. WTC reduces the risk of subsequently being involved in an accident, although sleep may not be a strong component of the mechanism underlying this association.

Implementation of numerical simulation techniques in analysis of the accidents in complex technological systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Klishin, G.S.; Seleznev, V.E.; Aleoshin, V.V.

1997-12-31

Gas industry enterprises such as main pipelines, compressor gas transfer stations, gas extracting complexes belong to the energy intensive industry. Accidents there can result into the catastrophes and great social, environmental and economic losses. Annually, according to the official data several dozens of large accidents take place at the pipes in the USA and Russia. That is why prevention of the accidents, analysis of the mechanisms of their development and prediction of their possible consequences are acute and important tasks nowadays. The accidents reasons are usually of a complicated character and can be presented as a complex combination of natural,more » technical and human factors. Mathematical and computer simulations are safe, rather effective and comparatively inexpensive methods of the accident analysis. It makes it possible to analyze different mechanisms of a failure occurrence and development, to assess its consequences and give recommendations to prevent it. Besides investigation of the failure cases, numerical simulation techniques play an important role in the treatment of the diagnostics results of the objects and in further construction of mathematical prognostic simulations of the object behavior in the period of time between two inspections. While solving diagnostics tasks and in the analysis of the failure cases, the techniques of theoretical mechanics, of qualitative theory of different equations, of mechanics of a continuous medium, of chemical macro-kinetics and optimizing techniques are implemented in the Conversion Design Bureau {number_sign}5 (DB{number_sign}5). Both universal and special numerical techniques and software (SW) are being developed in DB{number_sign}5 for solution of such tasks. Almost all of them are calibrated on the calculations of the simulated and full-scale experiments performed at the VNIIEF and MINATOM testing sites. It is worth noting that in the long years of work there has been established a fruitful and effective collaboration of theoreticians, mathematicians and experimentalists of the institute to solve such tasks.« less

The Initial Atmospheric Transport (IAT) Code: Description and Validation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morrow, Charles W.; Bartel, Timothy James

The Initial Atmospheric Transport (IAT) computer code was developed at Sandia National Laboratories as part of their nuclear launch accident consequences analysis suite of computer codes. The purpose of IAT is to predict the initial puff/plume rise resulting from either a solid rocket propellant or liquid rocket fuel fire. The code generates initial conditions for subsequent atmospheric transport calculations. The Initial Atmospheric Transfer (IAT) code has been compared to two data sets which are appropriate to the design space of space launch accident analyses. The primary model uncertainties are the entrainment coefficients for the extended Taylor model. The Titan 34Dmore » accident (1986) was used to calibrate these entrainment settings for a prototypic liquid propellant accident while the recent Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (JHU/APL, or simply APL) large propellant block tests (2012) were used to calibrate the entrainment settings for prototypic solid propellant accidents. North American Meteorology (NAM )formatted weather data profiles are used by IAT to determine the local buoyancy force balance. The IAT comparisons for the APL solid propellant tests illustrate the sensitivity of the plume elevation to the weather profiles; that is, the weather profile is a dominant factor in determining the plume elevation. The IAT code performed remarkably well and is considered validated for neutral weather conditions.« less

Early morning awakening and nonrestorative sleep are associated with increased minor non-fatal accidents during work and leisure time.

PubMed

Chiu, Hsiao-Yean; Wang, Mei-Yeh; Chang, Cheng-Kuei; Chen, Ching-Min; Chou, Kuei-Ru; Tsai, Jen-Chen; Tsai, Pei-Shan

2014-10-01

The relationship between a composite measure of insomnia and occupational or fatal accidents has been investigated previously; however, little is known regarding the effect of various insomnia symptoms on minor non-fatal accidents during work and leisure time. We investigated the predicting role of insomnia symptoms on minor non-fatal accidents during work and leisure time. Data from the 2005 Taiwan Social Development Trend Survey of 36,473 Taiwanese aged ≥18 years were analyzed in 2013. Insomnia symptoms, including difficulty in initiating sleep (DIS), difficulty in maintaining sleep (DMS), early morning awakening (EMA), and nonrestorative sleep (NRS) were investigated. A minor non-fatal accident was defined as any mishap such as forgetting to turn off the gas or faucets, accidental falls, and abrasions or cuts occurring during work and leisure time in the past month that do not require immediate medical attention. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to assess the odds ratios (ORs) and associated 95% confidence interval (CI) of minor non-fatal accidents (as a binary variable) for each insomnia symptom compared with those of people presenting no symptoms, while controlling for possible confounders. EMA and NRS increased the odds of minor non-fatal accidents occurring during work and leisure time (adjusted OR=1.19, 95% CI=1.08-1.32 and adjusted OR=1.27, 95% CI=1.17-1.37, respectively). EMA and NRS are two symptoms that are significantly associated with an increased likelihood of minor non-fatal accidents during work and leisure time after adjusting for of a range of covariates. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Developing techniques for cause-responsibility analysis of occupational accidents.

PubMed

Jabbari, Mousa; Ghorbani, Roghayeh

2016-11-01

The aim of this study was to specify the causes of occupational accidents, determine social responsibility and the role of groups involved in work-related accidents. This study develops occupational accidents causes tree, occupational accidents responsibility tree, and occupational accidents component-responsibility analysis worksheet; based on these methods, it develops cause-responsibility analysis (CRA) techniques, and for testing them, analyzes 100 fatal/disabling occupational accidents in the construction setting that were randomly selected from all the work-related accidents in Tehran, Iran, over a 5-year period (2010-2014). The main result of this study involves two techniques for CRA: occupational accidents tree analysis (OATA) and occupational accidents components analysis (OACA), used in parallel for determination of responsible groups and responsibilities rate. From the results, we find that the management group of construction projects has 74.65% responsibility of work-related accidents. The developed techniques are purposeful for occupational accidents investigation/analysis, especially for the determination of detailed list of tasks, responsibilities, and their rates. Therefore, it is useful for preventing work-related accidents by focusing on the responsible group's duties. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Usefulness of high resolution coastal models for operational oil spill forecast: the "Full City" accident

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broström, G.; Carrasco, A.; Hole, L. R.; Dick, S.; Janssen, F.; Mattsson, J.; Berger, S.

2011-11-01

Oil spill modeling is considered to be an important part of a decision support system (DeSS) for oil spill combatment and is useful for remedial action in case of accidents, as well as for designing the environmental monitoring system that is frequently set up after major accidents. Many accidents take place in coastal areas, implying that low resolution basin scale ocean models are of limited use for predicting the trajectories of an oil spill. In this study, we target the oil spill in connection with the "Full City" accident on the Norwegian south coast and compare operational simulations from three different oil spill models for the area. The result of the analysis is that all models do a satisfactory job. The "standard" operational model for the area is shown to have severe flaws, but by applying ocean forcing data of higher resolution (1.5 km resolution), the model system shows results that compare well with observations. The study also shows that an ensemble of results from the three different models is useful when predicting/analyzing oil spill in coastal areas.

Usefulness of high resolution coastal models for operational oil spill forecast: the Full City accident

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broström, G.; Carrasco, A.; Hole, L. R.; Dick, S.; Janssen, F.; Mattsson, J.; Berger, S.

2011-06-01

Oil spill modeling is considered to be an important decision support system (DeSS) useful for remedial action in case of accidents, as well as for designing the environmental monitoring system that is frequently set up after major accidents. Many accidents take place in coastal areas implying that low resolution basin scale ocean models is of limited use for predicting the trajectories of an oil spill. In this study, we target the oil spill in connection with the Full City accident on the Norwegian south coast and compare three different oil spill models for the area. The result of the analysis is that all models do a satisfactory job. The "standard" operational model for the area is shown to have severe flaws but including an analysis based on a higher resolution model (1.5 km resolution) for the area the model system show results that compare well with observations. The study also shows that an ensemble using three different models is useful when predicting/analyzing oil spill in coastal areas.

Dispersion of Fukushima radionuclides in the global atmosphere and the ocean.

PubMed

Povinec, P P; Gera, M; Holý, K; Hirose, K; Lujaniené, G; Nakano, M; Plastino, W; Sýkora, I; Bartok, J; Gažák, M

2013-11-01

Large quantities of radionuclides were released in March-April 2011 during the accident of the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant to the atmosphere and the ocean. Atmospheric and marine modeling has been carried out to predict the dispersion of radionuclides worldwide, to compare the predicted and measured radionuclide concentrations, and to assess the impact of the accident on the environment. Atmospheric Lagrangian dispersion modeling was used to simulate the dispersion of (137)Cs over America and Europe. Global ocean circulation model was applied to predict the dispersion of (137)Cs in the Pacific Ocean. The measured and simulated (137)Cs concentrations in atmospheric aerosols and in seawater are compared with global fallout and the Chernobyl accident, which represent the main sources of the pre-Fukushima radionuclide background in the environment. The radionuclide concentrations in the atmosphere have been negligible when compared with the Chernobyl levels. The maximum (137)Cs concentration in surface waters of the open Pacific Ocean will be around 20 Bq/m(3). The plume will reach the US coast 4-5 y after the accident, however, the levels will be below 3 Bq/m(3). All the North Pacific Ocean will be labeled with Fukushima (137)Cs 10 y after the accident with concentration bellow 1 Bq/m(3). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hair cortisol in relation to acute and post-traumatic stress symptoms in children and adolescents.

PubMed

Straub, Joana; Klaubert, Lena Marie; Schmiedgen, Susann; Kirschbaum, Clemens; Goldbeck, Lutz

2017-11-01

We report on the preliminary results of two independent studies that (1) compare the hair cortisol concentrations (HCC) of healthy controls with patients displaying post-traumatic stress symptoms (PTSS, study 1+2), (2) investigate whether pre-trauma HCC are predictive for the development of acute stress symptoms (ASS) and PTSS (study 1) and (3) determine whether HCC correlate with PTSS in a clinical sample of children (study 2). In study 1, the clinical symptoms of 35 minors were examined one (T1) and seven weeks (T2) after surgery following an accident. Hair samples were taken after the accident that reflect cortisol secretion over the past three months before the accident (healthy controls). In study 2, HCC and PTSS symptoms were cross-sectionally assessed in 22 minors who had experienced a psychological trauma. The HCC of patients with PTSS were lower than the HCC of healthy controls (study 1+2). Secondary analyses showed that HCC were significantly lower in male PTSS patients than in male healthy controls, whereas the HCC in females were comparably low in both groups. Pre-trauma HCC did not predict the total ASS and PTSS scores (study 1) and HCC were not directly related to the total PTSS scores (study 2).

A Study of Airline Passenger Susceptibility to Atmospheric Turbulence Hazard

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stewart, Eric C.

2000-01-01

A simple, generic, simulation math model of a commercial airliner has been developed to study the susceptibility of unrestrained passengers to large, discrete gust encounters. The math model simulates the longitudinal motion to vertical gusts and includes (1) motion of an unrestrained passenger in the rear cabin, (2) fuselage flexibility, (3) the lag in the downwash from the wing to the tail, and (4) unsteady lift effects. Airplane and passenger response contours are calculated for a matrix of gust amplitudes and gust lengths of a simulated mountain rotor. A comparison of the model-predicted responses to data from three accidents indicates that the accelerations in actual accidents are sometimes much larger than the simulated gust encounters.

The relationship between safety climate and recent accidents: behavioral learning and cognitive attributions.

PubMed

Desai, Vinit M; Roberts, Karlene H; Ciavarelli, Anthony P

2006-01-01

The association between accidents and subsequent work unit safety perceptions was assessed to address cognitive and behavioral changes following accidents. Many studies attempt to predict accident rates using measures of work unit safety, but effects vary considerably. Conversely, this study examined whether recent accidents may be positively associated with work unit safety perceptions, as suggested by behavioral learning mechanisms (increases in safety investments following accidents) or cognitive mechanisms (defensive attributions regarding accident causality). Lagged squadron-level accident experience was correlated with work unit safety perceptions obtained through a 61-question safety climate survey administered to 6,361 individuals in U.S. Navy flight squadrons. Positive associations between minor or intermediately severe accidents and future safety climate scores were found, although no effect was found for major accidents. We suggest that accident history should be considered when examining work unit safety perceptions because recent accidents may be associated with higher safety climate scores. We did not find that this varies systematically with accident severity, and longitudinal research on additional samples is needed to further test this possibility. This research may be used to refine measurement of work unit safety and to examine impacts of accidents or safety violations on workers' cognitive processes and group behavioral changes.

Long term radiocesium contamination of fruit trees following the Chernobyl accident.

PubMed

Antonopoulos-Domis, M; Clouvas, A; Gagianas, A

1996-12-01

Radiocesium contamination from the Chernobyl accident of fruits and leaves from various fruit trees was systematically studied from 1990 to 1995 on two agricultural experimentation farms in Northern Greece. The results are discussed in the framework of a previously published model describing the long-term radiocesium contamination mechanism of deciduous fruit trees after a nuclear accident. The results of the present work qualitatively verify the model predictions.

Heat up and potential failure of BWR upper internals during a severe accident

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robb, Kevin R

2015-01-01

In boiling water reactors, the steam dome, steam separators, and dryers above the core are comprised of approximately 100 tons of stainless steel. During a severe accident in which the coolant boils away and exothermic oxidation of zirconium occurs, gases (steam and hydrogen) are superheated in the core region and pass through the upper internals. Historically, the upper internals have been modeled using severe accident codes with relatively simple approximations. The upper internals are typically modeled in MELCOR as two lumped volumes with simplified heat transfer characteristics, with no structural integrity considerations, and with limited ability to oxidize, melt, andmore » relocate. The potential for and the subsequent impact of the upper internals to heat up, oxidize, fail, and relocate during a severe accident was investigated. A higher fidelity representation of the shroud dome, steam separators, and steam driers was developed in MELCOR v1.8.6 by extending the core region upwards. This modeling effort entailed adding 45 additional core cells and control volumes, 98 flow paths, and numerous control functions. The model accounts for the mechanical loading and structural integrity, oxidation, melting, flow area blockage, and relocation of the various components. The results indicate that the upper internals can reach high temperatures during a severe accident; they are predicted to reach a high enough temperature such that they lose their structural integrity and relocate. The additional 100 tons of stainless steel debris influences the subsequent in-vessel and ex-vessel accident progression.« less

The predictive validity of safety climate.

PubMed

Johnson, Stephen E

2007-01-01

Safety professionals have increasingly turned their attention to social science for insight into the causation of industrial accidents. One social construct, safety climate, has been examined by several researchers [Cooper, M. D., & Phillips, R. A. (2004). Exploratory analysis of the safety climate and safety behavior relationship. Journal of Safety Research, 35(5), 497-512; Gillen, M., Baltz, D., Gassel, M., Kirsch, L., & Vacarro, D. (2002). Perceived safety climate, job Demands, and coworker support among union and nonunion injured construction workers. Journal of Safety Research, 33(1), 33-51; Neal, A., & Griffin, M. A. (2002). Safety climate and safety behaviour. Australian Journal of Management, 27, 66-76; Zohar, D. (2000). A group-level model of safety climate: Testing the effect of group climate on microaccidents in manufacturing jobs. Journal of Applied Psychology, 85(4), 587-596; Zohar, D., & Luria, G. (2005). A multilevel model of safety climate: Cross-level relationships between organization and group-level climates. Journal of Applied Psychology, 90(4), 616-628] who have documented its importance as a factor explaining the variation of safety-related outcomes (e.g., behavior, accidents). Researchers have developed instruments for measuring safety climate and have established some degree of psychometric reliability and validity. The problem, however, is that predictive validity has not been firmly established, which reduces the credibility of safety climate as a meaningful social construct. The research described in this article addresses this problem and provides additional support for safety climate as a viable construct and as a predictive indicator of safety-related outcomes. This study used 292 employees at three locations of a heavy manufacturing organization to complete the 16 item Zohar Safety Climate Questionnaire (ZSCQ) [Zohar, D., & Luria, G. (2005). A multilevel model of safety climate: Cross-level relationships between organization and group-level climates. Journal of Applied Psychology, 90(4), 616-628]. In addition, safety behavior and accident experience data were collected for 5 months following the survey and were statistically analyzed (structural equation modeling, confirmatory factor analysis, exploratory factor analysis, etc.) to identify correlations, associations, internal consistency, and factorial structures. Results revealed that the ZSCQ: (a) was psychometrically reliable and valid, (b) served as an effective predictor of safety-related outcomes (behavior and accident experience), and (c) could be trimmed to an 11 item survey with little loss of explanatory power. Practitioners and researchers can use the ZSCQ with reasonable certainty of the questionnaire's reliability and validity. This provides a solid foundation for the development of meaningful organizational interventions and/or continued research into social factors affecting industrial accident experience.

Methods Developed by the Tools for Engine Diagnostics Task to Monitor and Predict Rotor Damage in Real Time

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baaklini, George Y.; Smith, Kevin; Raulerson, David; Gyekenyesi, Andrew L.; Sawicki, Jerzy T.; Brasche, Lisa

2003-01-01

Tools for Engine Diagnostics is a major task in the Propulsion System Health Management area of the Single Aircraft Accident Prevention project under NASA s Aviation Safety Program. The major goal of the Aviation Safety Program is to reduce fatal aircraft accidents by 80 percent within 10 years and by 90 percent within 25 years. The goal of the Propulsion System Health Management area is to eliminate propulsion system malfunctions as a primary or contributing factor to the cause of aircraft accidents. The purpose of Tools for Engine Diagnostics, a 2-yr-old task, is to establish and improve tools for engine diagnostics and prognostics that measure the deformation and damage of rotating engine components at the ground level and that perform intermittent or continuous monitoring on the engine wing. In this work, nondestructive-evaluation- (NDE-) based technology is combined with model-dependent disk spin experimental simulation systems, like finite element modeling (FEM) and modal norms, to monitor and predict rotor damage in real time. Fracture mechanics time-dependent fatigue crack growth and damage-mechanics-based life estimation are being developed, and their potential use investigated. In addition, wireless eddy current and advanced acoustics are being developed for on-wing and just-in-time NDE engine inspection to provide deeper access and higher sensitivity to extend on-wing capabilities and improve inspection readiness. In the long run, these methods could establish a base for prognostic sensing while an engine is running, without any overt actions, like inspections. This damage-detection strategy includes experimentally acquired vibration-, eddy-current- and capacitance-based displacement measurements and analytically computed FEM-, modal norms-, and conventional rotordynamics-based models of well-defined damages and critical mass imbalances in rotating disks and rotors.

Performance prediction of the Strong company's soft ground arrestor system using a numerical analysis.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-10-01

Air transportation has an outstanding safety record; however, accidents do occur. Aircraft accidents can occur while the aircraft is at cruise altitude or during land movements: taxiing, takeoff, and landing. Overruns occur when an aircraft is unable...

Facility Targeting, Protection and Mission Decision Making Using the VISAC Code

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morris, Robert H.; Sulfredge, C. David

2011-01-01

The Visual Interactive Site Analysis Code (VISAC) has been used by DTRA and several other agencies to aid in targeting facilities and to predict the associated collateral effects for the go, no go mission decision making process. VISAC integrates the three concepts of target geometric modeling, damage assessment capabilities, and an event/fault tree methodology for evaluating accident/incident consequences. It can analyze a variety of accidents/incidents at nuclear or industrial facilities, ranging from simple component sabotage to an attack with military or terrorist weapons. For nuclear facilities, VISAC predicts the facility damage, estimated downtime, amount and timing of any radionuclides released. Used in conjunction with DTRA's HPAC code, VISAC also can analyze transport and dispersion of the radionuclides, levels of contamination of the surrounding area, and the population at risk. VISAC has also been used by the NRC to aid in the development of protective measures for nuclear facilities that may be subjected to attacks by car/truck bombs.

Glider accidents: an analysis of 143 cases, 2001-2005.

PubMed

van Doorn, Robert R A; de Voogt, Alexander J

2007-01-01

The majority of aviation crashes and casualties take place in general and sport aviation. Although gliding has gained popularity in recent decades, we could find no systematic analysis of glider accidents. This study determined factors associated with both non-fatal and fatal glider accidents to document their position within sport and general aviation accidents, and to suggest preventive measures and improvements. We performed a retrospective review of glider accidents for the period 2001-2005 in the database maintained by the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB). A total of 117 non-fatal and 26 fatal glider accidents were reported for the 5-yr period. Adverse weather was the cause in 20% of all non-fatal accidents, 60% of which occurred in the cruise phase. Logistic regression revealed that fatal accidents were predicted by pilot error, flight phase, and home-built aircraft. Factors contributing to glider crashes are specific to this type of sport aviation. Owners of home-built gliders should pay particular attention to the aircraft's specifications and design limits.

How indicative is a self-reported driving behaviour profile of police registered traffic law offences?

PubMed

Martinussen, L M; Møller, M; Prato, C G; Haustein, S

2017-02-01

Although most motorised countries have experienced massive improvements in road safety over the last decades, human behaviour and differences in accident risk across sub-groups of drivers remains a key issue in the area of road safety. The identification of risk groups requires the identification of reliable predictors of safe or unsafe driving behaviour. Given this background, the aim of this study was to test whether driver sub-groups identified based on self-reported driving behaviour and skill differed in registered traffic law offences and accidents, and whether group membership was predictive of having traffic law offences. Sub-groups of drivers were identified based on the Driver Behaviour Questionnaire (DBQ) and the Driver Skill Inventory (DSI), while traffic offences and accidents were register-based (Statistics Denmark). The participants (N=3683) were aged 18-84 years and randomly selected from the Danish Driving License Register. Results show that the driver sub-groups differed significantly in registered traffic offences but not in registered accidents. In a logistic regression analysis, the sub-group "Violating unsafe drivers" was found predictive of having a traffic offence, even when socio-demographic variables and exposure were controlled for. The most important predictive factor, however, was having a criminal record for non-traffic offences, while gender, living without a partner, and being self-employed also had a significant effect. The study confirms the use of the DBQ and DSI as suitable instruments for predicting traffic offences while also confirming previous results on accumulation of problematic behaviours across life contexts. The finding that driver sub-groups did not differ in registered accidents supports the recent research activities in finding and modelling surrogate safety measures. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Do Cognitive Models Help in Predicting the Severity of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder, Phobia, and Depression After Motor Vehicle Accidents? A Prospective Longitudinal Study

PubMed Central

Ehring, Thomas; Ehlers, Anke; Glucksman, Edward

2008-01-01

The study investigated the power of theoretically derived cognitive variables to predict posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), travel phobia, and depression following injury in a motor vehicle accident (MVA). MVA survivors (N = 147) were assessed at the emergency department on the day of their accident and 2 weeks, 1 month, 3 months, and 6 months later. Diagnoses were established with the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM–IV. Predictors included initial symptom severities; variables established as predictors of PTSD in E. J. Ozer, S. R. Best, T. L. Lipsey, and D. S. Weiss's (2003) meta-analysis; and variables derived from cognitive models of PTSD, phobia, and depression. Results of nonparametric multiple regression analyses showed that the cognitive variables predicted subsequent PTSD and depression severities over and above what could be predicted from initial symptom levels. They also showed greater predictive power than the established predictors, although the latter showed similar effect sizes as in the meta-analysis. In addition, the predictors derived from cognitive models of PTSD and depression were disorder-specific. The results support the role of cognitive factors in the maintenance of emotional disorders following trauma. PMID:18377119

Diving accidents in sports divers in Orkney waters.

PubMed

Trevett, A J; Forbes, R; Rae, C K; Sheehan, C; Ross, J; Watt, S J; Stephenson, R

2001-12-01

Scapa Flow in Orkney is one of the major world centres for wreck diving. Because of the geography of Orkney and the nature of the diving, it is possible to make relatively accurate estimates of the number of dives taking place. The denominator of dive activity allows the unusual opportunity of precise calculation of accident rates. In 1999, one in every 178 sports divers visiting Orkney was involved in a significant accident, in 2000 the figure was one in 102. Some of these accidents appear to have been predictable and could be avoided by better education and preparation of visiting divers.

An exploration of the utility of mathematical modeling predicting fatigue from sleep/wake history and circadian phase applied in accident analysis and prevention: the crash of Comair Flight 5191.

PubMed

Pruchnicki, Shawn A; Wu, Lora J; Belenky, Gregory

2011-05-01

On 27 August 2006 at 0606 eastern daylight time (EDT) at Bluegrass Airport in Lexington, KY (LEX), the flight crew of Comair Flight 5191 inadvertently attempted to take off from a general aviation runway too short for their aircraft. The aircraft crashed killing 49 of the 50 people on board. To better understand this accident and to aid in preventing similar accidents, we applied mathematical modeling predicting fatigue-related degradation in performance for the Air Traffic Controller on-duty at the time of the crash. To provide the necessary input to the model, we attempted to estimate circadian phase and sleep/wake histories for the Captain, First Officer, and Air Traffic Controller. We were able to estimate with confidence the circadian phase for each. We were able to estimate with confidence the sleep/wake history for the Air Traffic Controller, but unable to do this for the Captain and First Officer. Using the sleep/wake history estimates for the Air Traffic Controller as input, the mathematical modeling predicted moderate fatigue-related performance degradation at the time of the crash. This prediction was supported by the presence of what appeared to be fatigue-related behaviors in the Air Traffic Controller during the 30 min prior to and in the minutes after the crash. Our modeling results do not definitively establish fatigue in the Air Traffic Controller as a cause of the accident, rather they suggest that had he been less fatigued he might have detected Comair Flight 5191's lining up on the wrong runway. We were not able to perform a similar analysis for the Captain and First Officer because we were not able to estimate with confidence their sleep/wake histories. Our estimates of sleep/wake history and circadian rhythm phase for the Air Traffic Controller might generalize to other air traffic controllers and to flight crew operating in the early morning hours at LEX. Relative to other times of day, the modeling results suggest an elevated risk of fatigue-related error, incident, or accident in the early morning due to truncated sleep from the early start and adverse circadian phase from the time of day. This in turn suggests that fatigue mitigation targeted to early morning starts might reduce fatigue risk. In summary, this study suggests that mathematical models predicting performance from sleep/wake history and circadian phase are (1) useful in retrospective accident analysis provided reliable sleep/wake histories are available for the accident personnel and, (2) useful in prospective fatigue-risk identification, mitigation, and accident prevention. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Results of a large-scale randomized behavior change intervention on road safety in Kenya.

PubMed

Habyarimana, James; Jack, William

2015-08-25

Road accidents kill 1.3 million people each year, most in the developing world. We test the efficacy of evocative messages, delivered on stickers placed inside Kenyan matatus, or minibuses, in reducing road accidents. We randomize the intervention, which nudges passengers to complain to their drivers directly, across 12,000 vehicles and find that on average it reduces insurance claims rates of matatus by between one-quarter and one-third and is associated with 140 fewer road accidents per year than predicted. Messages promoting collective action are especially effective, and evocative images are an important motivator. Average maximum speeds and average moving speeds are 1-2 km/h lower in vehicles assigned to treatment. We cannot reject the null hypothesis of no placebo effect. We were unable to discern any impact of a complementary radio campaign on insurance claims. Finally, the sticker intervention is inexpensive: we estimate the cost-effectiveness of the most impactful stickers to be between $10 and $45 per disability-adjusted life-year saved.

Double hull grounding experiments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rodd, J.L.; Sikora, J.P.

1995-12-31

In the last few years the public and governments of many nations have become increasingly aware of the need for improving oil tanker safety. The requirements for double hull tankers are an attempt to address this need through legislation. Even though a number of investigations on the mechanics of collisions have been done in the past, until recently very little research supported the development of structural improvements to reduce oil tanker damage during grounding and stranding accidents. An aggressive evaluation of double hull tanker crashworthiness in stranding and grounding accidents is underway at CD/NSWC (formerly the David Taylor Research Center).more » The ability to predict damage from grounding accidents accurately is not currently available. The objective of this paper is to present qualitatively the structural failure mechanisms associated with stranding and grounding events for candidate double hull tanker structures and to present some simple methods for comparing damage scenarios. A comparison of the structural performance of key features in several very different designs will provide useful information toward this understanding.« less

ENVIRONMENTAL REACTIVITY OF SOLID STATE HYDRIDE MATERIALS: MODELING AND TESTING FOR AIR AND WATER EXPOSURE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anton, D.; James, C.; Cortes-Concepcion, J.

2010-05-18

To make commercially acceptable condensed phase hydrogen storage systems, it is important to understand quantitatively the risks involved in using these materials. A rigorous set of environmental reactivity tests have been developed based on modified testing procedures codified by the United Nations for the transportation of dangerous goods. Potential hydrogen storage material, 2LiBH4{center_dot}MgH2 and NH3BH3, have been tested using these modified procedures to evaluate the relative risks of these materials coming in contact with the environment in hypothetical accident scenarios. It is apparent that an ignition event will only occur if both a flammable concentration of hydrogen and sufficient thermalmore » energy were available to ignite the hydrogen gas mixture. In order to predict hydride behavior for hypothesized accident scenarios, an idealized finite element model was developed for dispersed hydride from a breached system. Empirical thermodynamic calculations based on precise calorimetric experiments were performed in order to quantify the energy and hydrogen release rates and to quantify the reaction products resulting from water and air exposure. Both thermal and compositional predictions were made with identification of potential ignition event scenarios.« less

Organizational safety climate and supervisor safety enforcement: Multilevel explorations of the causes of accident underreporting.

PubMed

Probst, Tahira M

2015-11-01

According to national surveillance statistics, over 3 million employees are injured each year; yet, research indicates that these may be substantial underestimates of the true prevalence. The purpose of the current project was to empirically test the hypothesis that organizational safety climate and transactional supervisor safety leadership would predict the extent to which accidents go unreported by employees. Using hierarchical linear modeling and survey data collected from 1,238 employees in 33 organizations, employee-level supervisor safety enforcement behaviors (and to a less consistent extent, organizational-level safety climate) predicted employee accident underreporting. There was also a significant cross-level interaction, such that the effect of supervisor enforcement on underreporting was attenuated in organizations with a positive safety climate. These results may benefit human resources and safety professionals by pinpointing methods of increasing the accuracy of accident reporting, reducing actual safety incidents, and reducing the costs to individuals and organizations that result from underreporting. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

A study on industrial accident rate forecasting and program development of estimated zero accident time in Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Tae-gu; Kang, Young-sig; Lee, Hyung-won

2011-01-01

To begin a zero accident campaign for industry, the first thing is to estimate the industrial accident rate and the zero accident time systematically. This paper considers the social and technical change of the business environment after beginning the zero accident campaign through quantitative time series analysis methods. These methods include sum of squared errors (SSE), regression analysis method (RAM), exponential smoothing method (ESM), double exponential smoothing method (DESM), auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, and the proposed analytic function method (AFM). The program is developed to estimate the accident rate, zero accident time and achievement probability of an efficient industrial environment. In this paper, MFC (Microsoft Foundation Class) software of Visual Studio 2008 was used to develop a zero accident program. The results of this paper will provide major information for industrial accident prevention and be an important part of stimulating the zero accident campaign within all industrial environments.

Perspectives on multifield models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Banerjee, S.

1997-07-01

Multifield models for prediction of nuclear reactor thermalhydraulics are reviewed from the viewpoint of their structure and requirements for closure relationships. Their strengths and weaknesses are illustrated with examples, indicating that they are effective in predicting separated and distributed flow regimes, but have problems for flows with large oscillations. Needs for multifield models are also discussed in the context of reactor operations and accident simulations. The highest priorities for future developments appear to relate to closure relationships for three-dimensional multifield models with emphasis on those needed for calculations of phase separation and entrainment/de-entrainment in complex geometries.

Biomarkers for radiation pneumonitis using non-invasive molecular imaging

PubMed Central

Medhora, Meetha; Haworth, Steven; Liu, Yu; Narayanan, Jayashree; Gao, Feng; Zhao, Ming; Audi, Said; Jacobs, Elizabeth R.; Fish, Brian L.; Clough, Anne V.

2016-01-01

Rationale Our goal is to develop minimally-invasive biomarkers for predicting radiation-induced lung injury before symptoms develop. Currently there are no biomarkers that can predict radiation pneumonitis. Radiation damage to the whole lung is a serious risk in nuclear accidents or in case of radiological terrorism. Our previous studies have shown a single dose of 15 Gy X-rays to the thorax causes severe pneumonitis in rats by 6–8 weeks. We have also developed a mitigator for radiation pneumonitis and fibrosis that can be started as late as 5 weeks after radiation. Methods We used two functional single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) probes in vivo in irradiated rat lungs. Regional pulmonary perfusion was measured by injection of technetium labeled macroaggregated albumin (99mTc-MAA). Perfused volume was determined by comparing the volume of distribution of 99mTc-MAA to the anatomical lung volume obtained by micro-CT. A second probe, technetium labeled duramycin that binds to apoptotic cells, was used to measure pulmonary cell death in the same rat model. Results Perfused volume of lung was decreased by ~25% at 1, 2 and 3 weeks after 15 Gy and 99mTc-duramycin uptake was more than doubled at 2 and 3 weeks. There was no change in body weight, breathing rate or lung histology between irradiated and non-irradiated rats at these times. Pulmonary vascular resistance and vascular permeability measured in isolated perfused lungs ex vivo increased at 2 weeks after 15 Gy. Principal conclusions Our results suggest the potential for SPECT biomarkers for predicting radiation injury to the lungs before substantial functional or histological damage is observed. Early prediction of radiation pneumonitis will benefit those receiving radiation in the context of therapy, accidents or terrorism in time to initiate mitigation. PMID:27033892

Wind shear and turbulence around airports

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewellen, W. S.; Williamson, G. G.

1976-01-01

A two part study was conducted to determine the feasibility of predicting the conditions under which wind/turbulence environments hazardous to aviation operations exist. The computer model used to solve the velocity temperature, and turbulence distributions in the atmospheric boundary layer is described, and the results of a parameteric analysis to determine the expected range of wind shear and turbulence to be encountered in the vicinity of airports are given. The second part describes the delineation of an ensemble of aircraft accidents in which low level wind shear and/or turbulence appeared to be causative factors. This set of accidents, encompassing a wide range of meteorological conditions, should prove useful in developing techniques for reconstructing hazardous wind environments for aircraft safety investigation purposes.

Rate theory scenarios study on fission gas behavior of U 3 Si 2 under LOCA conditions in LWRs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miao, Yinbin; Gamble, Kyle A.; Andersson, David

Fission gas behavior of U3Si2 under various loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) conditions in light water reactors (LWRs) was simulated using rate theory. A rate theory model for U3Si2 that covers both steady-state operation and power transients was developed for the GRASS-SST code based on existing research reactor/ion irradiation experimental data and theoretical predictions of density functional theory (DFT) calculations. The steady-state and LOCA condition parameters were either directly provided or inspired by BISON simulations. Due to the absence of in-pile experiment data for U3Si2's fuel performance under LWR conditions at this stage of accident tolerant fuel (ATF) development, a variety ofmore » LOCA scenarios were taken into consideration to comprehensively and conservatively evaluate the fission gas behavior of U3Si2 during a LOCA.« less

Sleepy driver near-misses may predict accident risks.

PubMed

Powell, Nelson B; Schechtman, Kenneth B; Riley, Robert W; Guilleminault, Christian; Chiang, Rayleigh Ping-ying; Weaver, Edward M

2007-03-01

To quantify the prevalence of self-reported near-miss sleepy driving accidents and their association with self-reported actual driving accidents. A prospective cross-sectional internet-linked survey on driving behaviors. Dateline NBC News website. Results are given on 35,217 (88% of sample) individuals with a mean age of 37.2 +/- 13 years, 54.8% women, and 87% white. The risk of at least one accident increased monotonically from 23.2% if there were no near-miss sleepy accidents to 44.5% if there were > or = 4 near-miss sleepy accidents (P < 0.0001). After covariate adjustments, subjects who reported at least one near-miss sleepy accident were 1.13 (95% CI, 1.10 to 1.16) times as likely to have reported at least one actual accident as subjects reporting no near-miss sleepy accidents (P < 0.0001). The odds of reporting at least one actual accident in those reporting > or = 4 near-miss sleepy accidents as compared to those reporting no near-miss sleepy accidents was 1.87 (95% CI, 1.64 to 2.14). Furthermore, after adjustments, the summary Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS) score had an independent association with having a near-miss or actual accident. An increase of 1 unit of ESS was associated with a covariate adjusted 4.4% increase of having at least one accident (P < 0.0001). A statistically significant dose-response was seen between the numbers of self-reported sleepy near-miss accidents and an actual accident. These findings suggest that sleepy near-misses may be dangerous precursors to an actual accident.

Assembly and analysis of fragmentation data for liquid propellant vessels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, W. E.; Parr, V. B.; Bessey, R. L.; Cox, P. A.

1974-01-01

Fragmentation data was assembled and analyzed for exploding liquid propellant vessels. These data were to be retrieved from reports of tests and accidents, including measurements or estimates of blast yield, etc. A significant amount of data was retrieved from a series of tests conducted for measurement of blast and fireball effects of liquid propellant explosions (Project PYRO), a few well-documented accident reports, and a series of tests to determine auto-ignition properties of mixing liquid propellants. The data were reduced and fitted to various statistical functions. Comparisons were made with methods of prediction for blast yield, initial fragment velocities, and fragment range. Reasonably good correlation was achieved. Methods presented in the report allow prediction of fragment patterns, given type and quantity of propellant, type of accident, and time of propellant mixing.

Attitudes to emotional expression and personality in predicting post-traumatic stress disorder.

PubMed

Nightingale, J; Williams, R M

2000-09-01

To test hypotheses derived from a suggestion of Williams (1989) that negative attitudes towards emotional expression act as a predisposing or maintaining factor for post-traumatic stress reactions following a traumatic event. The study employed a prospective design in which attitudes to emotional expression, the 'Big Five' personality factors (Costa & McCrae, 1992a) and initial symptoms and injury severity within 1 week of a road traffic accident were used to predict the development of post-traumatic stress disorder 6 weeks post-accident. Sixty victims of road traffic accidents randomly selected from attenders at a large A&E department were assessed by questionnaire and interview. Measures comprised a 4-item scale relating to emotional expression, standardized scales for intrusion and avoidance features of traumatic experiences, and for anxiety and depression and the NEO-FFI Five Factor Personality Inventory. Forty-five of these participants responded to a postal questionnaire follow-up. In this survey the battery was repeated and also included a self-report diagnostic measure of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). The percentage of the sample meeting DSM-IV diagnostic criteria for PTSD at 6 weeks post-trauma was 30.8%. A small but significant relationship was found for negative attitudes to emotional expression at 1 week to predict intrusive symptoms and diagnosis at 6 weeks, over and above the independent relationships of initial symptoms, initial injury severity, personality and coping. The emotional expression measure was largely stable between the two points of measurement. More negative attitudes to emotional expression were related to less openness, extraversion and agreeableness personality domains. Some support for the hypotheses was found in relation to the development of PTSD and for the status of attitudes to emotion as a stable trait related to personality factors. The potential importance of attitudes to emotional expression in therapy and other work is discussed.

Analyses of non-fatal accidents in an opencast mine by logistic regression model - a case study.

PubMed

Onder, Seyhan; Mutlu, Mert

2017-09-01

Accidents cause major damage for both workers and enterprises in the mining industry. To reduce the number of occupational accidents, these incidents should be properly registered and carefully analysed. This study efficiently examines the Aegean Lignite Enterprise (ELI) of Turkish Coal Enterprises (TKI) in Soma between 2006 and 2011, and opencast coal mine occupational accident records were used for statistical analyses. A total of 231 occupational accidents were analysed for this study. The accident records were categorized into seven groups: area, reason, occupation, part of body, age, shift hour and lost days. The SPSS package program was used in this study for logistic regression analyses, which predicted the probability of accidents resulting in greater or less than 3 lost workdays for non-fatal injuries. Social facilities-area of surface installations, workshops and opencast mining areas are the areas with the highest probability for accidents with greater than 3 lost workdays for non-fatal injuries, while the reasons with the highest probability for these types of accidents are transporting and manual handling. Additionally, the model was tested for such reported accidents that occurred in 2012 for the ELI in Soma and estimated the probability of exposure to accidents with lost workdays correctly by 70%.

New Nuclear Emergency Prognosis system in Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Hyun-Ha; Jeong, Seung-Young; Park, Sang-Hyun; Lee, Kwan-Hee

2016-04-01

This paper reviews the status of assessment and prognosis system for nuclear emergency response in Korea, especially atmospheric dispersion model. The Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety (KINS) performs the regulation and radiological emergency preparedness of the nuclear facilities and radiation utilizations. Also, KINS has set up the "Radiological Emergency Technical Advisory Plan" and the associated procedures such as an emergency response manual in consideration of the IAEA Safety Standards GS-R-2, GS-G-2.0, and GS-G-2.1. The Radiological Emergency Technical Advisory Center (RETAC) organized in an emergency situation provides the technical advice on radiological emergency response. The "Atomic Computerized Technical Advisory System for nuclear emergency" (AtomCARE) has been developed to implement assessment and prognosis by RETAC. KINS developed Accident Dose Assessment and Monitoring (ADAMO) system in 2015 to reflect the lessons learned from Fukushima accident. It incorporates (1) the dose assessment on the entire Korean peninsula, Asia region, and global region, (2) multi-units accident assessment (3) applying new methodology of dose rate assessment and the source term estimation with inverse modeling, (4) dose assessment and monitoring with the environmental measurements result. The ADAMO is the renovated version of current FADAS of AtomCARE. The ADAMO increases the accuracy of the radioactive material dispersion with applying the LDAPS(Local Data Assimilation Prediction System, Spatial resolution: 1.5 km) and RDAPS(Regional Data Assimilation Prediction System, Spatial resolution: 12km) of weather prediction data, and performing the data assimilation of automatic weather system (AWS) data from Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and data from the weather observation tower at NPP site. The prediction model of the radiological material dispersion is based on the set of the Lagrangian Particle model and Lagrangian Puff model. The dose estimation methodology incorporate the dose assessment methods of IAEA, WHO, and USNRC. The dose assessment result will express on the GIS (GIS (Geographic Information System) to provide to the local- governments and the central government. Acknowledgements This research has been supported by the Nuclear Safety and Security Commission [Reference No.1305020-0315-SB110

Development of Database for Accident Analysis in Indian Mines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tripathy, Debi Prasad; Guru Raghavendra Reddy, K.

2016-10-01

Mining is a hazardous industry and high accident rates associated with underground mining is a cause of deep concern. Technological developments notwithstanding, rate of fatal accidents and reportable incidents have not shown corresponding levels of decline. This paper argues that adoption of appropriate safety standards by both mine management and the government may result in appreciable reduction in accident frequency. This can be achieved by using the technology in improving the working conditions, sensitising workers and managers about causes and prevention of accidents. Inputs required for a detailed analysis of an accident include information on location, time, type, cost of accident, victim, nature of injury, personal and environmental factors etc. Such information can be generated from data available in the standard coded accident report form. This paper presents a web based application for accident analysis in Indian mines during 2001-2013. An accident database (SafeStat) prototype based on Intranet of the TCP/IP agreement, as developed by the authors, is also discussed.

M5 model tree based predictive modeling of road accidents on non-urban sections of highways in India.

PubMed

Singh, Gyanendra; Sachdeva, S N; Pal, Mahesh

2016-11-01

This work examines the application of M5 model tree and conventionally used fixed/random effect negative binomial (FENB/RENB) regression models for accident prediction on non-urban sections of highway in Haryana (India). Road accident data for a period of 2-6 years on different sections of 8 National and State Highways in Haryana was collected from police records. Data related to road geometry, traffic and road environment related variables was collected through field studies. Total two hundred and twenty two data points were gathered by dividing highways into sections with certain uniform geometric characteristics. For prediction of accident frequencies using fifteen input parameters, two modeling approaches: FENB/RENB regression and M5 model tree were used. Results suggest that both models perform comparably well in terms of correlation coefficient and root mean square error values. M5 model tree provides simple linear equations that are easy to interpret and provide better insight, indicating that this approach can effectively be used as an alternative to RENB approach if the sole purpose is to predict motor vehicle crashes. Sensitivity analysis using M5 model tree also suggests that its results reflect the physical conditions. Both models clearly indicate that to improve safety on Indian highways minor accesses to the highways need to be properly designed and controlled, the service roads to be made functional and dispersion of speeds is to be brought down. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Systematic strategies for the third industrial accident prevention plan in Korea.

PubMed

Kang, Young-sig; Yang, Sung-hwan; Kim, Tae-gu; Kim, Day-sung

2012-01-01

To minimize industrial accidents, it's critical to evaluate a firm's priorities for prevention factors and strategies since such evaluation provides decisive information for preventing industrial accidents and maintaining safety management. Therefore, this paper proposes the evaluation of priorities through statistical testing of prevention factors with a cause analysis in a cause and effect model. A priority matrix criterion is proposed to apply the ranking and for the objectivity of questionnaire results. This paper used regression method (RA), exponential smoothing method (ESM), double exponential smoothing method (DESM), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and proposed analytical function method (PAFM) to analyze trends of accident data that will lead to an accurate prediction. This paper standardized the questionnaire results of workers and managers in manufacturing and construction companies with less than 300 employees, located in the central Korean metropolitan areas where fatal accidents have occurred. Finally, a strategy was provided to construct safety management for the third industrial accident prevention plan and a forecasting method for occupational accident rates and fatality rates for occupational accidents per 10,000 people.

The Driver Behaviour Questionnaire as accident predictor; A methodological re-meta-analysis.

PubMed

Af Wåhlberg, A E; Barraclough, P; Freeman, J

2015-12-01

The Manchester Driver Behaviour Questionnaire (DBQ) is the most commonly used self-report tool in traffic safety research and applied settings. It has been claimed that the violation factor of this instrument predicts accident involvement, which was supported by a previous meta-analysis. However, that analysis did not test for methodological effects, or include unpublished results. The present study re-analysed studies on prediction of accident involvement from DBQ factors, including lapses, and many unpublished effects. Tests of various types of dissemination bias and common method variance were undertaken. Outlier analysis showed that some effects were probably not reliable data, but excluding them did not change the results. For correlations between violations and crashes, tendencies for published effects to be larger than unpublished ones and for effects to decrease over time were observed, but were not significant. Also, using the mean of accidents as proxy for effect indicated that studies where effects for violations are not reported have smaller effect sizes. These differences indicate dissemination bias. Studies using self-reported accidents as dependent variables had much larger effects than those using recorded accident data. Also, zero-order correlations were larger than partial correlations controlled for exposure. Similarly, violations/accidents effects were strong only when there was also a strong correlation between accidents and exposure. Overall, the true effect is probably very close to zero (r<.07) for violations versus traffic accident involvement, depending upon which tendencies are controlled for. Methodological factors and dissemination bias have inflated the published effect sizes of the DBQ. Strong evidence of various artefactual effects is apparent. A greater level of care should be taken if the DBQ continues to be used in traffic safety research. Also, validation of self-reports should be more comprehensive in the future, taking into account the possibility of common method variance. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

Methodological guidelines for developing accident modification functions.

PubMed

Elvik, Rune

2015-07-01

This paper proposes methodological guidelines for developing accident modification functions. An accident modification function is a mathematical function describing systematic variation in the effects of road safety measures. The paper describes ten guidelines. An example is given of how to use the guidelines. The importance of exploratory analysis and an iterative approach in developing accident modification functions is stressed. The example shows that strict compliance with all the guidelines may be difficult, but represents a level of stringency that should be strived for. Currently the main limitations in developing accident modification functions are the small number of good evaluation studies and the often huge variation in estimates of effect. It is therefore still not possible to develop accident modification functions for very many road safety measures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Health effects model for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis. Part I. Introduction, integration, and summary. Part II. Scientific basis for health effects models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Evans, J.S.; Moeller, D.W.; Cooper, D.W.

1985-07-01

Analysis of the radiological health effects of nuclear power plant accidents requires models for predicting early health effects, cancers and benign thyroid nodules, and genetic effects. Since the publication of the Reactor Safety Study, additional information on radiological health effects has become available. This report summarizes the efforts of a program designed to provide revised health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence modeling. The new models for early effects address four causes of mortality and nine categories of morbidity. The models for early effects are based upon two parameter Weibull functions. They permit evaluation of the influence ofmore » dose protraction and address the issue of variation in radiosensitivity among the population. The piecewise-linear dose-response models used in the Reactor Safety Study to predict cancers and thyroid nodules have been replaced by linear and linear-quadratic models. The new models reflect the most recently reported results of the follow-up of the survivors of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and permit analysis of both morbidity and mortality. The new models for genetic effects allow prediction of genetic risks in each of the first five generations after an accident and include information on the relative severity of various classes of genetic effects. The uncertainty in modeloling radiological health risks is addressed by providing central, upper, and lower estimates of risks. An approach is outlined for summarizing the health consequences of nuclear power plant accidents. 298 refs., 9 figs., 49 tabs.« less

Characterizing the Preturbulence Environment for Sensor Development, New Hazard Algorithms and NASA Experimental Flight Planning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaplan, Michael L.; Lin, Yuh-Lang

2004-01-01

During the grant period, several tasks were performed in support of the NASA Turbulence Prediction and Warning Systems (TPAWS) program. The primary focus of the research was on characterizing the preturbulence environment by developing predictive tools and simulating atmospheric conditions that preceded severe turbulence. The goal of the research being to provide both dynamical understanding of conditions that preceded turbulence as well as providing predictive tools in support of operational NASA B-757 turbulence research flights. The advancements in characterizing the preturbulence environment will be applied by NASA to sensor development for predicting turbulence onboard commercial aircraft. Numerical simulations with atmospheric models as well as multi-scale observational analyses provided insights into the environment organizing turbulence in a total of forty-eight specific case studies of severe accident producing turbulence on commercial aircraft. These accidents exclusively affected commercial aircraft. A paradigm was developed which diagnosed specific atmospheric circulation systems from the synoptic scale down to the meso-y scale that preceded turbulence in both clear air and in proximity to convection. The emphasis was primarily on convective turbulence as that is what the TPAWS program is most focused on in terms of developing improved sensors for turbulence warning and avoidance. However, the dynamical paradigm also has applicability to clear air and mountain turbulence. This dynamical sequence of events was then employed to formulate and test new hazard prediction indices that were first tested in research simulation studies and then ultimately were further tested in support of the NASA B-757 turbulence research flights. The new hazard characterization algorithms were utilized in a Real Time Turbulence Model (RTTM) that was operationally employed to support the NASA B-757 turbulence research flights. Improvements in the RTTM were implemented in an effort to increase the accuracy of the operational characterization of the preturbulence environment. Additionally, the initial research necessary to create a statistical evaluation scheme for the characterization indices utilized in the RTTM was undertaken. Results of all components of this research were then published in NASA contractor reports and scientific journal papers.

The role of visual attention in predicting driving impairment in older adults.

PubMed

Hoffman, Lesa; McDowd, Joan M; Atchley, Paul; Dubinsky, Richard

2005-12-01

This study evaluated the role of visual attention (as measured by the DriverScan change detection task and the Useful Field of View Test [UFOV]) in the prediction of driving impairment in 155 adults between the ages of 63 and 87. In contrast to previous research, participants were not oversampled for visual impairment or history of automobile accidents. Although a history of automobile accidents within the past 3 years could not be predicted using any variable, driving performance in a low-fidelity simulator could be significantly predicted by performance in the change detection task and by the divided and selection attention subtests of the UFOV in structural equation models. The sensitivity and specificity of each measure in identifying at-risk drivers were also evaluated with receiver operating characteristic curves.

Occurrence and countermeasures of urban power grid accident

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Wang; Tao, Zhang

2018-03-01

With the advance of technology, the development of network communication and the extensive use of power grids, people can get to know power grid accidents around the world through the network timely. Power grid accidents occur frequently. Large-scale power system blackout and casualty accidents caused by electric shock are also fairly commonplace. All of those accidents have seriously endangered the property and personal safety of the country and people, and the development of society and economy is severely affected by power grid accidents. Through the researches on several typical cases of power grid accidents at home and abroad in recent years and taking these accident cases as the research object, this paper will analyze the three major factors that cause power grid accidents at present. At the same time, combining with various factors and impacts caused by power grid accidents, the paper will put forward corresponding solutions and suggestions to prevent the occurrence of the accident and lower the impact of the accident.

Recent plant studies using Victoria 2.0

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

BIXLER,NATHAN E.; GASSER,RONALD D.

2000-03-08

VICTORIA 2.0 is a mechanistic computer code designed to analyze fission product behavior within the reactor coolant system (RCS) during a severe nuclear reactor accident. It provides detailed predictions of the release of radioactive and nonradioactive materials from the reactor core and transport and deposition of these materials within the RCS and secondary circuits. These predictions account for the chemical and aerosol processes that affect radionuclide behavior. VICTORIA 2.0 was released in early 1999; a new version VICTORIA 2.1, is now under development. The largest improvements in VICTORIA 2.1 are connected with the thermochemical database, which is being revised andmore » expanded following the recommendations of a peer review. Three risk-significant severe accident sequences have recently been investigated using the VICTORIA 2.0 code. The focus here is on how various chemistry options affect the predictions. Additionally, the VICTORIA predictions are compared with ones made using the MELCOR code. The three sequences are a station blackout in a GE BWR and steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) and pump-seal LOCA sequences in a 3-loop Westinghouse PWR. These sequences cover a range of system pressures, from fully depressurized to full system pressure. The chief results of this study are the fission product fractions that are retained in the core, RCS, secondary, and containment and the fractions that are released into the environment.« less

Thermophysical properties of liquid UO2, ZrO2 and corium by molecular dynamics and predictive models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Woong Kee; Shim, Ji Hoon; Kaviany, Massoud

2017-08-01

Predicting the fate of accident-melted nuclear fuel-cladding requires the understanding of the thermophysical properties which are lacking or have large scatter due to high-temperature experimental challenges. Using equilibrium classical molecular dynamics (MD), we predict the properties of melted UO2 and ZrO2 and compare them with the available experimental data and the predictive models. The existing interatomic potential models have been developed mainly for the polymorphic solid phases of these oxides, so they cannot be used to predict all the properties accurately. We compare and decipher the distinctions of those MD predictions using the specific property-related autocorrelation decays. The predicted properties are density, specific heat, heat of fusion, compressibility, viscosity, surface tension, and the molecular and electronic thermal conductivities. After the comparisons, we provide readily usable temperature-dependent correlations (including UO2-ZrO2 compounds, i.e. corium melt).

NASA Structural Analysis Report on the American Airlines Flight 587 Accident - Local Analysis of the Right Rear Lug

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raju, Ivatury S; Glaessgen, Edward H.; Mason, Brian H; Krishnamurthy, Thiagarajan; Davila, Carlos G

2005-01-01

A detailed finite element analysis of the right rear lug of the American Airlines Flight 587 - Airbus A300-600R was performed as part of the National Transportation Safety Board s failure investigation of the accident that occurred on November 12, 2001. The loads experienced by the right rear lug are evaluated using global models of the vertical tail, local models near the right rear lug, and a global-local analysis procedure. The right rear lug was analyzed using two modeling approaches. In the first approach, solid-shell type modeling is used, and in the second approach, layered-shell type modeling is used. The solid-shell and the layered-shell modeling approaches were used in progressive failure analyses (PFA) to determine the load, mode, and location of failure in the right rear lug under loading representative of an Airbus certification test conducted in 1985 (the 1985-certification test). Both analyses were in excellent agreement with each other on the predicted failure loads, failure mode, and location of failure. The solid-shell type modeling was then used to analyze both a subcomponent test conducted by Airbus in 2003 (the 2003-subcomponent test) and the accident condition. Excellent agreement was observed between the analyses and the observed failures in both cases. From the analyses conducted and presented in this paper, the following conclusions were drawn. The moment, Mx (moment about the fuselage longitudinal axis), has significant effect on the failure load of the lugs. Higher absolute values of Mx give lower failure loads. The predicted load, mode, and location of the failure of the 1985-certification test, 2003-subcomponent test, and the accident condition are in very good agreement. This agreement suggests that the 1985-certification and 2003- subcomponent tests represent the accident condition accurately. The failure mode of the right rear lug for the 1985-certification test, 2003-subcomponent test, and the accident load case is identified as a cleavage-type failure. For the accident case, the predicted failure load for the right rear lug from the PFA is greater than 1.98 times the limit load of the lugs. I.

CHAP-2 heat-transfer analysis of the Fort St. Vrain reactor core

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kotas, J.F.; Stroh, K.R.

1983-01-01

The Los Alamos National Laboratory is developing the Composite High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor Analysis Program (CHAP) to provide advanced best-estimate predictions of postulated accidents in gas-cooled reactor plants. The CHAP-2 reactor-core model uses the finite-element method to initialize a two-dimensional temperature map of the Fort St. Vrain (FSV) core and its top and bottom reflectors. The code generates a finite-element mesh, initializes noding and boundary conditions, and solves the nonlinear Laplace heat equation using temperature-dependent thermal conductivities, variable coolant-channel-convection heat-transfer coefficients, and specified internal fuel and moderator heat-generation rates. This paper discusses this method and analyzes an FSV reactor-core accident thatmore » simulates a control-rod withdrawal at full power.« less

Network-level accident-mapping: Distance based pattern matching using artificial neural network.

PubMed

Deka, Lipika; Quddus, Mohammed

2014-04-01

The objective of an accident-mapping algorithm is to snap traffic accidents onto the correct road segments. Assigning accidents onto the correct segments facilitate to robustly carry out some key analyses in accident research including the identification of accident hot-spots, network-level risk mapping and segment-level accident risk modelling. Existing risk mapping algorithms have some severe limitations: (i) they are not easily 'transferable' as the algorithms are specific to given accident datasets; (ii) they do not perform well in all road-network environments such as in areas of dense road network; and (iii) the methods used do not perform well in addressing inaccuracies inherent in and type of road environment. The purpose of this paper is to develop a new accident mapping algorithm based on the common variables observed in most accident databases (e.g. road name and type, direction of vehicle movement before the accident and recorded accident location). The challenges here are to: (i) develop a method that takes into account uncertainties inherent to the recorded traffic accident data and the underlying digital road network data, (ii) accurately determine the type and proportion of inaccuracies, and (iii) develop a robust algorithm that can be adapted for any accident set and road network of varying complexity. In order to overcome these challenges, a distance based pattern-matching approach is used to identify the correct road segment. This is based on vectors containing feature values that are common in the accident data and the network data. Since each feature does not contribute equally towards the identification of the correct road segments, an ANN approach using the single-layer perceptron is used to assist in "learning" the relative importance of each feature in the distance calculation and hence the correct link identification. The performance of the developed algorithm was evaluated based on a reference accident dataset from the UK confirming that the accuracy is much better than other methods. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Longitudinal relationship between economic development and occupational accidents in China.

PubMed

Song, Li; He, Xueqiu; Li, Chengwu

2011-01-01

The relativity between economic development and occupational accidents is a debated topic. Compared with the development courses of both economic development and occupational accidents in China during 1953-2008, this paper used statistic methods such as Granger causality test, cointegration test and impulse response function based on the vector autoregression model to investigate the relativity between economic development and occupational accidents in China from 1953 to 2008. Owing to fluctuation and growth scale characteristics of economic development, two dimensions including economic cycle and economic scale were divided. Results showed that there was no relationship between occupational accidents and economic scale during 1953-1978. Fatality rate per 10(5) workers was a conductive variable to gross domestic product per capita during 1979-2008. And economic cycle was an indicator to occupational accidents during 1979-2008. Variation of economic speed had important influence on occupational accidents in short term. Thus it is necessary to adjust Chinese occupational safety policy according to tempo variation of economic growth. Crown Copyright © 2010. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Safety climate as a mediator between foundation climates and occupational accidents: a group-level investigation.

PubMed

Wallace, J Craig; Popp, Eric; Mondore, Scott

2006-05-01

Building on recent work in occupational safety and climate, the authors examined 2 organizational foundation climates thought to be antecedents of specific safety climate and the relationships among these climates and occupational accidents. It is believed that both foundation climates (i.e., management-employee relations and organizational support) will predict safety climate, which will in turn mediate the relationship between occupational accidents and these 2 distal foundation climates. Using a sample of 9,429 transportation workers in 253 work groups, the authors tested the proposed relationships at the group level. Results supported all hypotheses. Overall it appears that different climates have direct and indirect effects on occupational accidents.

The clinical course over the first year of whiplash associated disorders (WAD): pain-related disability predicts outcome in a mildly affected sample.

PubMed

Åsenlöf, Pernilla; Bring, Annika; Söderlund, Anne

2013-12-21

Different recovery patterns are reported for those befallen a whip-lash injury, but little is known about the variability within subgroups. The aims were (1) to compare a self-selected mildly affected sample (MILD) with a self-selected moderately to severely affected sample (MOD/SEV) with regard to background characteristics and pain-related disability, pain intensity, functional self-efficacy, fear of movement/(re)injury, pain catastrophising, post-traumatic stress symptoms in the acute stage (at baseline), (2) to study the development over the first year after the accident for the above listed clinical variables in the MILD sample, and (3) to study the validity of a prediction model including baseline levels of clinical variables on pain-related disability one year after baseline assessments. The study had a prospective and correlative design. Ninety-eight participants were consecutively selected. Inclusion criteria; age 18 to 65 years, WAD grade I-II, Swedish language skills, and subjective report of not being in need of treatment due to mild symptoms. A multivariate linear regression model was applied for the prediction analysis. The MILD sample was less affected in all study variables compared to the MOD/SEV sample. Pain-related disability, pain catastrophising, and post-traumatic stress symptoms decreased over the first year after the accident, whereas functional self-efficacy and fear of movement/(re)injury increased. Pain intensity was stable. Pain-related disability at baseline emerged as the only statistically significant predictor of pain-related disability one year after the accident (Adj r² = 0.67). A good prognosis over the first year is expected for the majority of individuals with WAD grade I or II who decline treatment due to mild symptoms. The prediction model was not valid in the MILD sample except for the contribution of pain-related disability. An implication is that early observations of individuals with elevated levels of pain-related disability are warranted, although they may decline treatment.

Medical-encounter mental health diagnoses, non-fatal injury and polypharmacy indicators of risk for accident death in the US Army enlisted soldiers, 2004-2009.

PubMed

Lewandowski-Romps, Lisa; Schroeder, Heather M; Berglund, Patricia A; Colpe, Lisa J; Cox, Kenneth; Hauret, Keith; Hay, Jeffrey D; Jones, Bruce; Little, Roderick J A; Mitchell, Colter; Schoenbaum, Michael; Schulz, Paul; Stein, Murray B; Ursano, Robert J; Heeringa, Steven G

2018-06-01

Accidents are a leading cause of deaths in U.S. active duty personnel. Understanding accident deaths during wartime could facilitate future operational planning and inform risk prevention efforts. This study expands prior research, identifying health risk factors associated with U.S. Army accident deaths during the Afghanistan and Iraq war. Military records for 2004-2009 enlisted, active duty, Regular Army soldiers were analyzed using logistic regression modeling to identify mental health, injury, and polypharmacy (multiple narcotic and/or psychotropic medications) predictors of accident deaths for current, previously, and never deployed groups. Deployed soldiers with anxiety diagnoses showed higher risk for accident deaths. Over half had anxiety diagnoses prior to being deployed, suggesting anticipatory anxiety or symptom recurrence may contribute to high risk. For previously deployed soldiers, traumatic brain injury (TBI) indicated higher risk. Two-thirds of these soldiers had first TBI medical-encounter while non-deployed, but mild, combat-related TBIs may have been undetected during deployments. Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) predicted higher risk for never deployed soldiers, as did polypharmacy which may relate to reasons for deployment ineligibility. Health risk predictors for Army accident deaths are identified and potential practice and policy implications discussed. Further research could test for replicability and expand models to include unobserved factors or modifiable mechanisms related to high risk. PTSD predicted high risk among those never deployed, suggesting importance of identification, treatment, and prevention of non-combat traumatic events. Finally, risk predictors overlapped with those identified for suicides, suggesting effective intervention might reduce both types of deaths. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An Information Retrieval Approach for Robust Prediction of Road Surface States.

PubMed

Park, Jae-Hyung; Kim, Kwanho

2017-01-28

Recently, due to the increasing importance of reducing severe vehicle accidents on roads (especially on highways), the automatic identification of road surface conditions, and the provisioning of such information to drivers in advance, have recently been gaining significant momentum as a proactive solution to decrease the number of vehicle accidents. In this paper, we firstly propose an information retrieval approach that aims to identify road surface states by combining conventional machine-learning techniques and moving average methods. Specifically, when signal information is received from a radar system, our approach attempts to estimate the current state of the road surface based on the similar instances observed previously based on utilizing a given similarity function. Next, the estimated state is then calibrated by using the recently estimated states to yield both effective and robust prediction results. To validate the performances of the proposed approach, we established a real-world experimental setting on a section of actual highway in South Korea and conducted a comparison with the conventional approaches in terms of accuracy. The experimental results show that the proposed approach successfully outperforms the previously developed methods.

An Information Retrieval Approach for Robust Prediction of Road Surface States

PubMed Central

Park, Jae-Hyung; Kim, Kwanho

2017-01-01

Recently, due to the increasing importance of reducing severe vehicle accidents on roads (especially on highways), the automatic identification of road surface conditions, and the provisioning of such information to drivers in advance, have recently been gaining significant momentum as a proactive solution to decrease the number of vehicle accidents. In this paper, we firstly propose an information retrieval approach that aims to identify road surface states by combining conventional machine-learning techniques and moving average methods. Specifically, when signal information is received from a radar system, our approach attempts to estimate the current state of the road surface based on the similar instances observed previously based on utilizing a given similarity function. Next, the estimated state is then calibrated by using the recently estimated states to yield both effective and robust prediction results. To validate the performances of the proposed approach, we established a real-world experimental setting on a section of actual highway in South Korea and conducted a comparison with the conventional approaches in terms of accuracy. The experimental results show that the proposed approach successfully outperforms the previously developed methods. PMID:28134859

Linking Doses with Clinical Scores of Hematopoietic Acute Radiation Syndrome.

PubMed

Hu, Shaowen

2016-10-01

In radiation accidents, determining the radiation dose the victim received is a key step for medical decision making and patient prognosis. To reconstruct and evaluate the absorbed dose, researchers have developed many physical devices and biological techniques during the last decades. However, using the physical parameter "absorbed dose" alone is not sufficient to predict the clinical development of the various organs injured in an individual patient. In operational situations for radiation accidents, medical responders need more urgently to classify the severity of the radiation injury based on the signs and symptoms of the patient. In this work, the author uses a unified hematopoietic model to describe dose-dependent dynamics of granulocytes, lymphocytes, and platelets, and the corresponding clinical grading of hematopoietic acute radiation syndrome. This approach not only visualizes the time course of the patient's probable outcome in the form of graphs but also indirectly gives information of the remaining stem and progenitor cells, which are responsible for the autologous recovery of the hematopoietic system. Because critical information on the patient's clinical evolution can be provided within a short time after exposure and only peripheral cell counts are required for the simulation, these modeling tools will be useful to assess radiation exposure and injury in human-involved radiation accident/incident scenarios.

The impact of climate change on winter road maintenance and traffic accidents in West Midlands, UK.

PubMed

Andersson, Anna K; Chapman, Lee

2011-01-01

Winter weather can be a significant cause of road traffic accidents. This paper uses UKCIP climate change scenarios and a temporal analogue to investigate the relationship between temperature and severe road accidents in the West Midlands, UK. This approach also allows quantification of the changes in the severity of the winter season over the next century in the region. It is demonstrated that the predicted reduction in the number of frost days should in turn reduce the number of road accidents caused due to slipperiness by approximately 50%. However, the paper concludes by warning against complacency in winter maintenance regimes. A warmer climate may result in budget cuts for highway maintenance which in turn may well reverse declining accident trends. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Application of CICCT Accident Categories to Aviation Accidents in 1988-2004

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Evans, Joni K.

2007-01-01

Interventions or technologies developed to improve aviation safety often focus on specific causes or accident categories. Evaluation of the potential effectiveness of those interventions is dependent upon mapping the historical aviation accidents into those same accident categories. To that end, the United States civil aviation accidents occurring between 1988 and 2004 (n=26,117) were assigned accident categories based upon the taxonomy developed by the CAST/ICAO Common Taxonomy Team (CICTT). Results are presented separately for four main categories of flight rules: Part 121 (large commercial air carriers), Scheduled Part 135 (commuter airlines), Non-Scheduled Part 135 (on-demand air taxi) and Part 91 (general aviation). Injuries and aircraft damage are summarized by year and by accident category.

Optical measures of dust velocities and direction during loss of vacuum accidents in confined environment and correlation between dust positions and properties with the resuspension degrees and the velocity modules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrea, Malizia; Rossi, Riccardo; Gaudio, Pasquale

2017-08-01

Dust explosions are dangerous events that still today represent a risk to all the industries that produce and/or handle combustible dust like the agro-alimentary, pharmaceutical and energy ones. When a dust cloud is dispersed in an oxidant gas, like air, it may reach the explosive concentration range. A model to predict the dust critical conditions, that can cause explosions, is a key factor for safety of operators and the security of the plants. The key point to predict this dust resuspension is to measure the velocity vectors of dust under the accidental conditions. In order to achieve this goal the authors have developed an experimental facility, STARDUST-U, which allow to obtain different conditions of temperature and pressurization rates characteristic of accidents in confined environment. The authors have developed also optical methods and software to analyse different dust resuspension phenomena under different conditions in confined environment. In this paper, the author will present how they measure the dust velocity vectors in different experimental conditions (and for different type of dusts) and how they have related the dust characteristics and positions inside STARDUST-U with the resuspension degree and the velocity values.

MARTINS: A foam/film flow model for molten material relocation in HWRs with U-Al-fueled multi-tube assemblies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kalimullah

1994-03-01

Some special purpose heavy-water reactors (EM) are made of assemblies consisting of a number of coaxial aluminum-clad U-Al alloy fuel tubes and an outer Al sleeve surrounding the fuel tubes. The heavy water coolant flows in the annular gaps between the circular tubes. Analysis of severe accidents in such reactors requires a model for predicting the behavior of the fuel tubes as they melt and disrupt. This paper describes a detailed, mechanistic model for fuel tube heatup, melting, freezing, and molten material relocation, called MARTINS (Melting and Relocation of Tubes in Nuclear subassembly). The paper presents the modeling of themore » phenomena in MARTINS, and an application of the model to analysis of a reactivity insertion accident. Some models are being developed to compute gradual downward relocation of molten material at decay-heat power levels via candling along intact tubes, neglecting coolant vapor hydrodynamic forces on molten material. These models are inadequate for high power accident sequences involving significant hydrodynamic forces. These forces are included in MARTINS.« less

Core cooling under accident conditions at the high-flux beam reactor

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tichler, P.; Cheng, L.; Fauske, H.

The High-Flux Beam Reactor (HFBR) at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) is cooled and moderated by heavy water and contains {sup 235}U in the form of narrow-channel, parallel-plate-type fuel elements. During normal operation, the flow direction is downward through the core. This flow direction is maintained at a reduced flow rate during routine shutdown and on loss of commercial power by means of redundant pumps and power supplies. However, in certain accident scenarios, e.g. loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCAs), all forced-flow cooling is lost. Although there was experimental evidence during the reactor design period (1958-1963) that the heat removal capacity in the fullymore » developed natural circulation cooling mode was relatively high, it was not possible to make a confident prediction of the heat removal capacity during the transition from downflow to natural circulation. Accordingly, a test program was initiated using an electrically heated section to simulate the fuel channel and a cooling loop to simulate the balance of the primary cooling system.« less

Impact Assessment of Effective Parameters on Drivers' Attention Level to Urban Traffic Signs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kazemi, Mojtaba; Rahimi, Amir Masoud; Roshankhah, Sheida

2016-03-01

Traffic signs are one of the oldest safety and traffic control equipments. Drivers' reaction to installed signs is an important issue that could be studied using statistical models developed for target groups. There are 527 questionnaires have been filled up randomly in 45 days, some by drivers passing two northern cities of Iran and some by e-mail. Therefore, minimum sample size of 384 is fulfilled. In addition, Cronbach Alpha of more than 90 % verifies the questionnaire's validity. Ordinal logistic regression is used for 5-level answer variables. This relatively novel method predicts probability of different cases' considering other effective independent variables. There are 18 parameters of factor, man, vehicle, and environment are assessed and 5 parameters of number of accidents in last 5 years, occupation, driving time, number of accidents per day, and driving speed are eventually found as the most important ones. Age and gender, that are considered as key factors in other safety and accident studies, are not recognized as effective ones in this paper. The results could be useful for safety planning programs.

Mechanism-based modeling of solute strengthening: application to thermal creep in Zr alloy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tome, Carlos; Wen, Wei; Capolungo, Laurent

2017-08-01

This report focuses on the development of a physics-based thermal creep model aiming to predict the behavior of Zr alloy under reactor accident condition. The current models used for this kind of simulations are mostly empirical in nature, based generally on fits to the experimental steady-state creep rates under different temperature and stress conditions, which has the following limitations. First, reactor accident conditions, such as RIA and LOCA, usually take place in short times and involve only the primary, not the steady-state creep behavior stage. Moreover, the empirical models cannot cover the conditions from normal operation to accident environments. Formore » example, Kombaiah and Murty [1,2] recently reported a transition between the low (n~4) and high (n~9) power law creep regimes in Zr alloys depending on the applied stress. Capturing such a behavior requires an accurate description of the mechanisms involved in the process. Therefore, a mechanism-based model that accounts for the evolution with time of microstructure is more appropriate and reliable for this kind of simulation.« less

Advance of Hazardous Operation Robot and its Application in Special Equipment Accident Rescue

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Qin-Da; Zhou, Wei; Zheng, Geng-Feng

A survey of hazardous operation robot is given out in this article. Firstly, the latest researches such as nuclear industry robot, fire-fighting robot and explosive-handling robot are shown. Secondly, existing key technologies and their shortcomings are summarized, including moving mechanism, control system, perceptive technology and power technology. Thirdly, the trend of hazardous operation robot is predicted according to current situation. Finally, characteristics and hazards of special equipment accident, as well as feasibility of hazardous operation robot in the area of special equipment accident rescue are analyzed.

The relationships between organizational and individual variables to on-the-job driver accidents and accident-free kilometres.

PubMed

Caird, J K; Kline, T J

2004-12-01

Highway fatalities are the leading cause of fatal work injuries in the US, accounting for approximately 1 in 4 of the 5900 job-related deaths during 2001. The present study focused on the contribution of organizational factors and driver behaviours to on-the-job driving accidents in a large Western Canadian corporation. A structural equation modelling (SEM) approach was used which allows researchers to test a complex set of relationships within a global theoretical framework. A number of scales were used to assess organizational support, driver errors, and driver behaviours. The sample of professional drivers that participated allowed the recording of on-the-job accidents and accident-free kilometres from their personnel files. The pattern of relationships in the fitted model, after controlling for exposure and social desirability, provides insight into the role of organizational support, planning, environment adaptations, fatigue, speed, errors and moving citations to on-the-job accidents and accident-free kilometres. For example, organizational support affected the capacity to plan. Time to plan work-related driving was found to predict accidents, fatigue and adaptations to the environment. Other interesting model paths, SEM limitations, future research and recommendations are elaborated.

Study of Psycho-Social Factors Affecting Traffic Accidents Among Young Boys in Tehran

PubMed Central

Javadi, Seyyed Mohammad Hossein; Fekr Azad, Hossein; Tahmasebi, Siyamak; Rafiei, Hassan; Rahgozar, Mehdi; Tajlili, Alireza

2015-01-01

Background: Unprecedented growth of fatalities due to traffic accidents in the recent years has raised great concerns and efforts of authorities in order to identify and control the causes of these accidents. Objectives: In the present study, the contribution of psychological, social, demographic, environmental and behavioral factors on traffic accidents was studied for young boys in Tehran, emphasizing the importance of psychosocial factors. Patients and Methods: The design of the present study was quantitative (correlational) in which a sample population including 253 boys from Tehran (Iran) with an age range of 18 to 24 who had been referred to insurance institutions, hospitals, correctional facilities as well as prisons, were selected using stratified cluster sampling during the year 2013.The subjects completed the following questionnaires: demographic, general health, lifestyle, Manchester Driving Behavior Questionnaire (MDBQ), young parenting, and NEO-Five Factor Inventory (NEO-FFI). For data analysis, descriptive statistics, correlation coefficient, and inferential statistics including simultaneous regression, stepwise regression, and structural equations modeling were used. Results: The findings indicated that in the psychosocial model of driving behavior (including lapses, mistakes, and intentional violations) and accidents, psychological factors, depression (P < 0.02), personality trait of conscientiousness (P < 0.02), failure schema due to the parenting style of mother (P = 0.001), and perception of police commands (P < 0.002), played an important role in predicting driving behavior. Among social factors, perception of police regulations (P = 0.003), had an important effect on violations and mistakes. Among environmental and behavioral factors, major factors such as driving age (P = 0.001), drug and alcohol use (P = 0.001), having driver’s license (P = 0.013), records of imprisonment or committing a crime (P = 0.012) were also able to predict occurrence of accidents. Conclusions: As the results of this study show, different factors contribute to different driving behaviors and accidents. The broad scope of these factors links accidents to other social issues and damages. PMID:26421169

Study of Psycho-Social Factors Affecting Traffic Accidents Among Young Boys in Tehran.

PubMed

Javadi, Seyyed Mohammad Hossein; Fekr Azad, Hossein; Tahmasebi, Siyamak; Rafiei, Hassan; Rahgozar, Mehdi; Tajlili, Alireza

2015-07-01

Unprecedented growth of fatalities due to traffic accidents in the recent years has raised great concerns and efforts of authorities in order to identify and control the causes of these accidents. In the present study, the contribution of psychological, social, demographic, environmental and behavioral factors on traffic accidents was studied for young boys in Tehran, emphasizing the importance of psychosocial factors. The design of the present study was quantitative (correlational) in which a sample population including 253 boys from Tehran (Iran) with an age range of 18 to 24 who had been referred to insurance institutions, hospitals, correctional facilities as well as prisons, were selected using stratified cluster sampling during the year 2013.The subjects completed the following questionnaires: demographic, general health, lifestyle, Manchester Driving Behavior Questionnaire (MDBQ), young parenting, and NEO-Five Factor Inventory (NEO-FFI). For data analysis, descriptive statistics, correlation coefficient, and inferential statistics including simultaneous regression, stepwise regression, and structural equations modeling were used. The findings indicated that in the psychosocial model of driving behavior (including lapses, mistakes, and intentional violations) and accidents, psychological factors, depression (P < 0.02), personality trait of conscientiousness (P < 0.02), failure schema due to the parenting style of mother (P = 0.001), and perception of police commands (P < 0.002), played an important role in predicting driving behavior. Among social factors, perception of police regulations (P = 0.003), had an important effect on violations and mistakes. Among environmental and behavioral factors, major factors such as driving age (P = 0.001), drug and alcohol use (P = 0.001), having driver's license (P = 0.013), records of imprisonment or committing a crime (P = 0.012) were also able to predict occurrence of accidents. As the results of this study show, different factors contribute to different driving behaviors and accidents. The broad scope of these factors links accidents to other social issues and damages.

Predicting Posttraumatic Stress Symptoms in Children after Road Traffic Accidents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Landolt, Markus A.; Vollrath, Margarete; Timm, Karin; Gnehm, Hanspeter E.; Sennhauser, Felix H.

2005-01-01

Objective: To prospectively assess the prevalence, course, and predictors of posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTSSs) in children after road traffic accidents (RTAs). Method: Sixty-eight children (6.5-14.5 years old) were interviewed 4-6 weeks and 12 months after an RTA with the Child PTSD Reaction Index (response rate 58.6%). Their mothers (n = 60)…

Self-evaluative appraisals of coping capability and posttraumatic distress following motor vehicle accidents.

PubMed

Benight, Charles C; Cieslak, Roman; Molton, Ivan R; Johnson, Lesley E

2008-08-01

This study tested the importance of coping self-efficacy (CSE) perceptions and change in perceptions of CSE for recovery from motor vehicle accident (MVA) trauma. Data were collected 7 days following the accident (Time 1; n = 163), 1 month after the accident (Time 2; n = 91), and 3 months after the accident (Time 3; n = 70). Early changes in CSE (i.e., from Time 1 to Time 2) predicted posttraumatic distress at 3 months after MVA trauma, even after controlling for Time 1 or Time 2 posttraumatic distress and other trauma-related variables (i.e., accident responsibility, litigation involvement, and peritraumatic dissociation). Early changes in CSE perceptions, however, neither moderated nor mediated the effects of early posttraumatic distress (Time 1) on 3-month posttraumatic distress. Time 2 CSE levels, however, did mediate the relationship between acute posttraumatic distress (Time 1) and 3-month posttraumatic distress (Time 3). These findings highlight the importance of early interventions aimed at strengthening self-efficacy after MVA trauma. Copyright 2008 APA, all rights reserved.

Method for Assessing Risk of Road Accidents in Transportation of School Children

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pogotovkina, N. S.; Volodkin, P. P.; Demakhina, E. S.

2017-11-01

The rationale behind the problem being investigated is explained by the remaining high level of the accident rates with the participation of vehicles carrying groups of children, including school buses, in the Russian Federation over the period of several years. The article is aimed at the identification of new approaches to improve the safety of transportation of schoolchildren in accordance with the Concept of children transportation by buses and the plan for its implementation. The leading approach to solve the problem under consideration is the prediction of accidents in the schoolchildren transportation. The article presents the results of the accident rate analysis with the participation of school buses in the Russian Federation for five years. Besides, a system to monitor the transportation of schoolchildren is proposed; the system will allow analyzing and forecasting traffic accidents which involve buses carrying groups of children, including school buses. In addition, the article presents a methodology for assessing the risk of road accidents during the transportation of schoolchildren.

Modeling injury rates as a function of industrialized versus on-site construction techniques.

PubMed

Rubio-Romero, J C; Suárez-Cebador, M; Abad, Jesús

2014-05-01

It is often predicted that the industrialization of building activities will lead to a reduction of accident rates in the construction sector, particularly as a result of switching activities from building sites to factories. However, to date no scientific research has provided objective quantitative results to back up this claim. The aim of this paper is to evaluate how industrialization affects the accident rate in different industrialized building systems in Spain. Our results revealed that the industrialized steel modular system presents the lowest accident rate, while the highest accident rate was recorded in the construction method with cast-in-place concrete. The lightweight construction system also presents a high accident rate. Accordingly, industrialized building systems cannot claim to be safer than traditional ones. The different types of "on-site work" seem to be the main variable which would explain the accident rates recorded in industrialized construction systems. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of personality on risky driving behavior and accident involvement for Chinese drivers.

PubMed

Yang, Jiaoyan; Du, Feng; Qu, Weina; Gong, Zhun; Sun, Xianghong

2013-01-01

Motor vehicle accidents are the leading cause of injury-related fatalities in China and pose the most serious threat to driving safety. Driver personality is considered as an effective predictor for risky driving behavior and accident liability. Previous studies have focused on the relationship between personality and risky driving behavior, but only a few of them have explored the effects of personality variables on accident involvement. In addition, few studies have examined the effects of personality on Chinese drivers' risky driving and accident involvement. The present study aimed to examine the effects of personality variables on Chinese drivers' unsafe driving behaviors and accident involvement. Two hundred and twenty-four Chinese drivers aged 20 to 50 were required to complete questionnaires assessing their personality traits (anger, sensation-seeking, altruism, and normlessness), risky driving behaviors (aggressive violations, ordinary violations), and accident involvement (all accidents, serious accidents, at-fault accidents). Multivariate regression analyses, adjusting for gender, age, and overall mileage, were conducted to identify the personality traits related to risky driving behaviors and accident involvement. Participants' personality traits were found to be significantly correlated with both risky driving behavior and accident involvement. Specifically, the traits of anger and normlessness were effective predictors for aggressive violations. The traits of anger, sensation-seeking, normlessness, and altruism were effective predictors for ordinary violations. Moreover, altruism and normlessness were significant predictors for the total number of accidents participants had during the past 3 years. Consistent with previous studies, the present study revealed that personality traits play an important role in predicting Chinese drivers' risky driving behaviors. In addition, Chinese drivers' personality characteristics were also associated with accident involvement.

Identifying the causes of road crashes in Europe

PubMed Central

Thomas, Pete; Morris, Andrew; Talbot, Rachel; Fagerlind, Helen

2013-01-01

This research applies a recently developed model of accident causation, developed to investigate industrial accidents, to a specially gathered sample of 997 crashes investigated in-depth in 6 countries. Based on the work of Hollnagel the model considers a collision to be a consequence of a breakdown in the interaction between road users, vehicles and the organisation of the traffic environment. 54% of road users experienced interpretation errors while 44% made observation errors and 37% planning errors. In contrast to other studies only 11% of drivers were identified as distracted and 8% inattentive. There was remarkably little variation in these errors between the main road user types. The application of the model to future in-depth crash studies offers the opportunity to identify new measures to improve safety and to mitigate the social impact of collisions. Examples given include the potential value of co-driver advisory technologies to reduce observation errors and predictive technologies to avoid conflicting interactions between road users. PMID:24406942

Geographic analysis of road accident severity index in Nigeria.

PubMed

Iyanda, Ayodeji E

2018-05-28

Before 2030, deaths from road traffic accidents (RTAs) will surpass cerebrovascular disease, tuberculosis, and HIV/AIDS. Yet, there is little knowledge on the geographic distribution of RTA severity in Nigeria. Accident Severity Index is the proportion of deaths that result from a road accident. This study analysed the geographic pattern of RTA severity based on the data retrieved from Federal Road Safety Corps (FRSC). The study predicted a two-year data from a historic road accident data using exponential smoothing technique. To determine spatial autocorrelation, global and local indicators of spatial association were implemented in a geographic information system. Results show significant clusters of high RTA severity among states in the northeast and the northwest of Nigeria. Hence, the findings are discussed from two perspectives: Road traffic law compliance and poor emergency response. Conclusion, the severity of RTA is high in the northern states of Nigeria, hence, RTA remains a public health concern.

Applying data mining techniques to explore factors contributing to occupational injuries in Taiwan's construction industry.

PubMed

Cheng, Ching-Wu; Leu, Sou-Sen; Cheng, Ying-Mei; Wu, Tsung-Chih; Lin, Chen-Chung

2012-09-01

Construction accident research involves the systematic sorting, classification, and encoding of comprehensive databases of injuries and fatalities. The present study explores the causes and distribution of occupational accidents in the Taiwan construction industry by analyzing such a database using the data mining method known as classification and regression tree (CART). Utilizing a database of 1542 accident cases during the period 2000-2009, the study seeks to establish potential cause-and-effect relationships regarding serious occupational accidents in the industry. The results of this study show that the occurrence rules for falls and collapses in both public and private project construction industries serve as key factors to predict the occurrence of occupational injuries. The results of the study provide a framework for improving the safety practices and training programs that are essential to protecting construction workers from occasional or unexpected accidents. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Type A behavior pattern, accident optimism and fatalism: an investigation into non-compliance with safety work behaviors among hospital nurses.

PubMed

Ugwu, Fabian O; Onyishi, Ike E; Ugwu, Chidi; Onyishi, Charity N

2015-01-01

Safety work behavior has continued to attract the interest of organizational researchers and practitioners especially in the health sector. The goal of the study was to investigate whether personality type A, accident optimism and fatalism could predict non-compliance with safety work behaviors among hospital nurses. One hundred and fifty-nine nursing staff sampled from three government-owned hospitals in a state in southeast Nigeria, participated in the study. Data were collected through Type A Behavior Scale (TABS), Accident Optimism, Fatalism and Compliance with Safety Behavior (CSB) Scales. Our results showed that personality type A, accident optimism and fatalism were all related to non-compliance with safety work behaviors. Personality type A individuals tend to comply less with safety work behaviors than personality type B individuals. In addition, optimistic and fatalistic views about accidents and existing safety rules also have implications for compliance with safety work behaviors.

Alternative method of highway traffic safety analysis for developing countries using delphi technique and Bayesian network.

PubMed

Mbakwe, Anthony C; Saka, Anthony A; Choi, Keechoo; Lee, Young-Jae

2016-08-01

Highway traffic accidents all over the world result in more than 1.3 million fatalities annually. An alarming number of these fatalities occurs in developing countries. There are many risk factors that are associated with frequent accidents, heavy loss of lives, and property damage in developing countries. Unfortunately, poor record keeping practices are very difficult obstacle to overcome in striving to obtain a near accurate casualty and safety data. In light of the fact that there are numerous accident causes, any attempts to curb the escalating death and injury rates in developing countries must include the identification of the primary accident causes. This paper, therefore, seeks to show that the Delphi Technique is a suitable alternative method that can be exploited in generating highway traffic accident data through which the major accident causes can be identified. In order to authenticate the technique used, Korea, a country that underwent similar problems when it was in its early stages of development in addition to the availability of excellent highway safety records in its database, is chosen and utilized for this purpose. Validation of the methodology confirms the technique is suitable for application in developing countries. Furthermore, the Delphi Technique, in combination with the Bayesian Network Model, is utilized in modeling highway traffic accidents and forecasting accident rates in the countries of research. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

International transferability of accident modification functions for horizontal curves.

PubMed

Elvik, Rune

2013-10-01

Studies of the relationship between characteristics of horizontal curves and accident rate have been reported in several countries. The characteristic most often studied is the radius of a horizontal curve. Functions describing the relationship between the radius of horizontal curves and accident rate have been developed in Australia, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Great Britain, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Sweden, and the United States. Other characteristics of horizontal curves that have been studied include deflection angle, curve length, the presence of transition curves, super-elevation in curves and distance to adjacent curves. This paper assesses the international transferability of mathematical functions (accident modification functions) that have been developed to relate the radius of horizontal curves to their accident rate. The main research problem is whether these functions are similar, which enhances international transferability, or dissimilar, which reduces international transferability. Accident modification functions for horizontal curve radius developed in the countries listed above are synthesised. The sensitivity of the functions to other characteristics of curves than radius is examined. Accident modification functions developed in different countries have important similarities. The functions diverge with respect to accident rate in the sharpest curves. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Chest modelling and automotive accidents].

PubMed

Trosseille, Xavier

2011-11-01

Automobile development is increasingly based on mathematical modeling. Accurate models of the human body are now available and serve to develop new means of protection. These models used to consist of rigid, articulated bodies but are now made of several million finite elements. They are now capable of predicting some risks of injury. To develop these models, sophisticated tests were conducted on human cadavers. For example, chest modeling started with material characterization and led to complete validation in the automobile environment. Model personalization, based on medical imaging, will permit studies of the behavior and tolerances of the entire population.

Estimating Rates of Motor Vehicle Crashes Using Medical Encounter Data: A Feasibility Study

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-11-05

used to develop more detailed predictive risk models as well as strategies for preventing specific types of MVCs. Systematic Review of Evidence... used to estimate rates of accident-related injuries more generally,9 but not with specific reference to MVCs. For the present report, rates of...precise rate estimates based on person-years rather than active duty strength, (e) multivariable effects of specific risk /protective factors after

[Prevention of Occupational Injuries Related to Hands: Calculation of Subsequent Injury Costs for the Austrian Social Occupational Insurance Institution (AUVA)].

PubMed

Rauner, M S; Mayer, B; Schaffhauser-Linzatti, M M

2015-08-01

Occupational injuries cause short-term, direct costs as well as long-term follow-up costs over the lifetime of the casualties. Due to shrinking budgets accident insurance companies focus on cost reduction programmes and prevention measures. For this reason, a decision support system for consequential cost calculation of occupational injuries was developed for the main Austrian social occupational insurance institution (AUVA) during three projects. This so-called cost calculation tool combines the traditional instruments of accounting with quantitative methods such as micro-simulation. The cost data are derived from AUVA-internal as well as external economic data sources. Based on direct and indirect costs, the subsequent occupational accident costs from the time of an accident and, if applicable, beyond the death of the individual casualty are predicted for the AUVA, the companies in which the casualties are working, and the other economic sectors. By using this cost calculation tool, the AUVA classifies risk groups and derives related prevention campaigns. In the past, the AUVA concentrated on falling, accidents at construction sites and in agriculture/forestry, as well as commuting accidents. Currently, among others, a focus on hand injuries is given and first prevention programmes have been initiated. Hand injuries represent about 38% of all casualties with average costs of about 7,851 Euro/case. Main causes of these accidents are cutting injuries in production, agriculture, and forestry. Beside a low, but costly, number of amputations with average costs of more than 100,000 Euro/case, bone fractures and strains burden the AUVA-budget with about 17,500 and 10,500 € per case, respectively. Decision support systems such as this cost calculation tool represent necessary instruments to identify risk groups and their injured body parts, causes of accidents, and economic activities, which highly burden the budget of an injury company, and help derive countermeasures to avoid injuries. Target-group specific, suitable prevention measures for hand injuries can reduce accidents in a cost-effective way and lower their consequences. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Model of relationship between personal factors and Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) management toward unsafe actions: a case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syamtinningrum, M. D. P.; Partiwi, S. G.; Dewi, D. S.

2018-04-01

One indicator of a good company is when a safe business environment can be well maintained. In this work environment, the number of industrial accidents is minimum. Industrial accidents are the incidents that occurred in the workplace, especially in industrial area. Industrial accidents are generally caused by two main reasons, unsafe actions & unsafe conditions. Some research indicates that unsafe actions significantly affect the incidence in the workplace. Unsafe action is a failure to follow the proper procedures and requirements, which is led into accidents. From several previous studies it can be concluded that personal factors & OHS management are two most influential factors that affect unsafe actions. However, their relationship in influencing unsafe actions is not fully understood. Based on this reason the authors want to investigate the effect of personal factors and OHS management toward unsafe actions to workers. For this purpose, a company is selected as a case study. In this research, analyses were done by using univariate test, bivariate correlation and linear regression. The results of this study proves that two indicators of personal factors (i.e. knowledge of OHS & OHS training) and OHS management have significant effect on unsafe actions but in negative direction, while two indicators of personal factors (i.e. workload & fatigue) have positive direction of effect on unsafe actions. In addition, this research has developed a mathematical model that can be used to calculate and predict the value of unsafe actions performed by the worker. By using this model, the company will able to take preventive actions toward unsafe actions to reduce workers accidents.

Social-cognitive correlates of risky adolescent cycling behavior

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Bicycle use entails high safety and health risks especially for adolescents. Most safety education programs aimed at adolescents focus on accident statistics and risk perceptions. This paper proposes the investigation of the social-cognitive correlates of risky cycling behaviors of adolescents prior to developing safety education programs. Method Secondary school students aged 13 to 18 years (n = 1446) filled out questionnaires regarding bicycle behavior, risky intentions, accident experience, and social-cognitive determinants as suggested by the theory of planned behavior. Results Regression analysis revealed that the proximal variables (i.e., self-efficacy, attitudes towards drunk driving, personal norm regarding safekeeping of self and others, and compared risk) were able to predict 17% of the variance of risky behavior and 23% of the variance of risky intentions. The full model explained respectively 29% and 37% of the variance in risky behavior and risky intentions. Adolescents with positive attitudes towards risky behavior and low sense of responsibility report risky behavior, even when having been (close to) an accident. Conclusions Adolescents realize whether they are risk takers or not. This implies that the focus of education programs should not be on risk perceptions, but on decreasing positive attitudes towards alcohol in traffic and increasing sense of responsibility instead. Cognitions regarding near accidents should be studied, the role of safe cycling self-efficacy is unclear. PMID:20624293

Improvement of operational prediction system applied to the oil spill prediction in the Yellow Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, C.; Cho, Y.; Choi, B.; Jung, K.

2012-12-01

Multi-nested operational prediction system for the Yellow Sea (YS) has been developed to predict the movement of oil spill. Drifter trajectory simulations were performed to predict the path of the oil spill of the MV Hebei Spirit accident occurred on 7 December 2007. The oil spill trajectories at the surface predicted by numerical model without tidal forcing were remarkably faster than the observation. However the speed of drifters predicted by model considering tide was satisfactorily improved not only for the motion with tidal cycle but also for the motion with subtidal period. The subtidal flow of the simulation with tide was weaker than that without tide due to tidal stress. Tidal stress decelerated the southward subtidal flows driven by northwesterly wind along the Korean coast of the YS in winter. This result provides a substantial implication that tide must be included for accurate prediction of oil spill trajectory not only for variation within a tidal cycle but also for longer time scale advection in tide dominant area.

Rapid Prediction of Hematologic Acute Radiation Syndrome in Radiation Injury Patients Using Peripheral Blood Cell Counts.

PubMed

Port, M; Pieper, B; Knie, T; Dörr, H; Ganser, A; Graessle, D; Meineke, V; Abend, M

2017-08-01

Rapid clinical triage of radiation injury patients is essential for determining appropriate diagnostic and therapeutic interventions. We examined the utility of blood cell counts (BCCs) in the first three days postirradiation to predict clinical outcome, specifically for hematologic acute radiation syndrome (HARS). We analyzed BCC test samples from radiation accident victims (n = 135) along with their clinical outcome HARS severity scores (H1-4) using the System for Evaluation and Archiving of Radiation Accidents based on Case Histories (SEARCH) database. Data from nonirradiated individuals (H0, n = 132) were collected from an outpatient facility. We created binary categories for severity scores, i.e., 1 (H0 vs. H1-4), 2 (H0-1 vs. H2-4) and 3 (H0-2 vs. H3-4), to assess the discrimination ability of BCCs using unconditional logistic regression analysis. The test sample contained 454 BCCs from 267 individuals. We validated the discrimination ability on a second independent group comprised of 275 BCCs from 252 individuals originating from SEARCH (HARS 1-4), an outpatient facility (H0) and hospitals (e.g., leukemia patients, H4). Individuals with a score of H0 were easily separated from exposed individuals based on developing lymphopenia and granulocytosis. The separation of H0 and H1-4 became more prominent with increasing hematologic severity scores and time. On day 1, lymphocyte counts were most predictive for discriminating binary categories, followed by granulocytes and thrombocytes. For days 2 and 3, an almost complete separation was achieved when BCCs from different days were combined, supporting the measurement of sequential BCC. We found an almost complete discrimination of H0 vs. irradiated individuals during model validation (negative predictive value, NPV > 94%) for all three days, while the correct prediction of exposed individuals increased from day 1 (positive predictive value, PPV 78-89%) to day 3 (PPV > 90%). The models were unable to provide predictions for 10.9% of the test samples, because the PPVs or NPVs did not reach a 95% likelihood defined as the lower limit for a prediction. We developed a prediction model spreadsheet to provide early and prompt diagnostic predictions and therapeutic recommendations including identification of the worried well, requirement of hospitalization or development of severe hematopoietic syndrome. These results improve the provisional classification of HARS. For the final diagnosis, further procedures (sequential diagnosis, retrospective dosimetry, clinical follow-up, etc.) must be taken into account. Clinical outcome of radiation injury patients can be rapidly predicted within the first three days postirradiation using peripheral BCC.

Development and validation of a human biomechanical model for rib fracture and thorax injuries in blunt impact.

PubMed

Cai, Zhihua; Lan, Fengchong; Chen, Jiqing

2015-07-01

From 1990 to approximately 50,000-120,000 people die annually of road traffic accidents in China. Traffic accidents are the main cause of death of Chinese adults aged 15-45 years. This study aimed to determine the biomechanical response and injury tolerance of the human body in traffic accidents. The subject was a 35-year-old male with a height of 170 cm, weight of 70 kg and Chinese characteristics at the 50th percentile. Geometry was generated by computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging. A human-body biomechanical model was then developed. The model featured in great detail the main anatomical characteristics of skeletal tissues, soft tissues and internal organs, including the head, neck, shoulder, thoracic cage, abdomen, spine, pelvis, pleurae and lungs, heart, aorta, arms, legs, and other muscle tissues and skeletons. The material properties of all tissues in the human body model were obtained from the literature. Material properties were developed in the LS-DYNA code to simulate the mechanical behaviour of the biological tissues in the human body. The model was validated against cadaver responses to frontal and side impact. The predicted model response reasonably agreed with the experimental data, and the model can further be used to evaluate thoracic injury in real-world crashes. We believe that the transportation industry can use numerical models in the future to simultaneously reduce physical testing and improve automotive safety.

Biomarkers for Radiation Pneumonitis Using Noninvasive Molecular Imaging.

PubMed

Medhora, Meetha; Haworth, Steven; Liu, Yu; Narayanan, Jayashree; Gao, Feng; Zhao, Ming; Audi, Said; Jacobs, Elizabeth R; Fish, Brian L; Clough, Anne V

2016-08-01

Our goal is to develop minimally invasive biomarkers for predicting radiation-induced lung injury before symptoms develop. Currently, there are no biomarkers that can predict radiation pneumonitis. Radiation damage to the whole lung is a serious risk in nuclear accidents or in radiologic terrorism. Our previous studies have shown that a single dose of 15 Gy of x-rays to the thorax causes severe pneumonitis in rats by 6-8 wk. We have also developed a mitigator for radiation pneumonitis and fibrosis that can be started as late as 5 wk after radiation. We used 2 functional SPECT probes in vivo in irradiated rat lungs. Regional pulmonary perfusion was measured by injection of (99m)Tc-macroaggregated albumin. Perfused volume was determined by comparing the volume of distribution of (99m)Tc-macroaggregated albumin to the anatomic lung volume obtained by small-animal CT. A second probe, (99m)Tc-labeled Duramycin, which binds to apoptotic cells, was used to measure pulmonary cell death in the same rat model. The perfused volume of lung was decreased by about 25% at 1, 2, and 3 wk after receipt of 15 Gy, and (99m)Tc-Duramycin uptake was more than doubled at 2 and 3 wk. There was no change in body weight, breathing rate, or lung histology between irradiated and nonirradiated rats at these times. Pulmonary vascular resistance and vascular permeability measured in isolated perfused lungs ex vivo increased at 2 wk after 15 Gy of irradiation. Our results suggest that SPECT biomarkers have the potential to predict radiation injury to the lungs before substantial functional or histologic damage is observed. Early prediction of radiation pneumonitis in time to initiate mitigation will benefit those exposed to radiation in the context of therapy, accidents, or terrorism. © 2016 by the Society of Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging, Inc.

Development of a methodology for accident causation research

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1983-06-01

The obj ective of this study was to fully develop and apply a me thodology to : study accident causation, uhich was outlined in a previous study . " Causal" factors : are those pre-crash factors, which are statistically related to the accident rate :...

Radiation protection issues on preparedness and response for a severe nuclear accident: experiences of the Fukushima accident.

PubMed

Homma, T; Takahara, S; Kimura, M; Kinase, S

2015-06-01

Radiation protection issues on preparedness and response for a severe nuclear accident are discussed in this paper based on the experiences following the accident at Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. The criteria for use in nuclear emergencies in the Japanese emergency preparedness guide were based on the recommendations of International Commission of Radiological Protection (ICRP) Publications 60 and 63. Although the decision-making process for implementing protective actions relied heavily on computer-based predictive models prior to the accident, urgent protective actions, such as evacuation and sheltering, were implemented effectively based on the plant conditions. As there were no recommendations and criteria for long-term protective actions in the emergency preparedness guide, the recommendations of ICRP Publications 103, 109, and 111 were taken into consideration in determining the temporary relocation of inhabitants of heavily contaminated areas. These recommendations were very useful in deciding the emergency protective actions to take in the early stages of the Fukushima accident. However, some suggestions have been made for improving emergency preparedness and response in the early stages of a severe nuclear accident. © The Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers 2014.

Analytics of Radioactive Materials Released in the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Accident

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Egarievwe, Stephen U.; Nuclear Engineering Department, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN; Coble, Jamie B.

The 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident in Japan resulted in the release of radioactive materials into the atmosphere, the nearby sea, and the surrounding land. Following the accident, several meteorological models were used to predict the transport of the radioactive materials to other continents such as North America and Europe. Also of high importance is the dispersion of radioactive materials locally and within Japan. Based on the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Convention on Early Notification of a nuclear accident, several radiological data sets were collected on the accident by the Japanese authorities. Among the radioactive materials monitored, are I-131more » and Cs-137 which form the major contributions to the contamination of drinking water. The radiation dose in the atmosphere was also measured. It is impractical to measure contamination and radiation dose in every place of interest. Therefore, modeling helps to predict contamination and radiation dose. Some modeling studies that have been reported in the literature include the simulation of transport and deposition of I-131 and Cs-137 from the accident, Cs-137 deposition and contamination of Japanese soils, and preliminary estimates of I-131 and Cs-137 discharged from the plant into the atmosphere. In this paper, we present statistical analytics of I-131 and Cs-137 with the goal of predicting gamma dose from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident. The data sets used in our study were collected from the IAEA Fukushima Monitoring Database. As part of this study, we investigated several regression models to find the best algorithm for modeling the gamma dose. The modeling techniques used in our study include linear regression, principal component regression (PCR), partial least square (PLS) regression, and ridge regression. Our preliminary results on the first set of data showed that the linear regression model with one variable was the best with a root mean square error of 0.0133 μSv/h, compared to 0.0210 μSv/h for PCR, 0.231 μSv/h for ridge regression L-curve, 0.0856 μSv/h for PLS, and 0.0860 μSv/h for ridge regression cross validation. Complete results using the full datasets for these models will also be presented. (authors)« less

Bicycle safety highway users information report

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1978-01-01

This report presents a picture of the type and frequency of bicycling accidents common to adult bicyclists using America's streets and highways. It develops accident frequencies by type, offers profiles of accident versus non-accident riders, lists p...

Development of multivariate exposure and fatal accident involvement rates for 1977

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1985-10-01

The need for multivariate accident involvement rates is often encounted in : accident analysis. The FARS (Fatal Accident Reporting System) files contain : records of fatal involvements characterized by many variables while NPTS : (National Personal T...

An Evidential Reasoning-Based CREAM to Human Reliability Analysis in Maritime Accident Process.

PubMed

Wu, Bing; Yan, Xinping; Wang, Yang; Soares, C Guedes

2017-10-01

This article proposes a modified cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM) for estimating the human error probability in the maritime accident process on the basis of an evidential reasoning approach. This modified CREAM is developed to precisely quantify the linguistic variables of the common performance conditions and to overcome the problem of ignoring the uncertainty caused by incomplete information in the existing CREAM models. Moreover, this article views maritime accident development from the sequential perspective, where a scenario- and barrier-based framework is proposed to describe the maritime accident process. This evidential reasoning-based CREAM approach together with the proposed accident development framework are applied to human reliability analysis of a ship capsizing accident. It will facilitate subjective human reliability analysis in different engineering systems where uncertainty exists in practice. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Overview of the U.S. DOE Accident Tolerant Fuel Development Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jon Carmack; Frank Goldner; Shannon M. Bragg-Sitton

2013-09-01

The United States Fuel Cycle Research and Development Advanced Fuels Campaign has been given the responsibility to conduct research and development on enhanced accident tolerant fuels with the goal of performing a lead test assembly or lead test rod irradiation in a commercial reactor by 2022. The Advanced Fuels Campaign has defined fuels with enhanced accident tolerance as those that, in comparison with the standard UO2-Zircaloy system currently used by the nuclear industry, can tolerate loss of active cooling in the reactor core for a considerably longer time period (depending on the LWR system and accident scenario) while maintaining ormore » improving the fuel performance during normal operations and operational transients, as well as design-basis and beyond design-basis events. This paper provides an overview of the FCRD Accident Tolerant Fuel program. The ATF attributes will be presented and discussed. Attributes identified as potentially important to enhance accident tolerance include reduced hydrogen generation (resulting from cladding oxidation), enhanced fission product retention under severe accident conditions, reduced cladding reaction with high-temperature steam, and improved fuel-cladding interaction for enhanced performance under extreme conditions. To demonstrate the enhanced accident tolerance of candidate fuel designs, metrics must be developed and evaluated using a combination of design features for a given LWR design, potential improvements to that design, and the design of an advanced fuel/cladding system. The aforementioned attributes provide qualitative guidance for parameters that will be considered for fuels with enhanced accident tolerance. It may be unnecessary to improve in all attributes and it is likely that some attributes or combination of attributes provide meaningful gains in accident tolerance, while others may provide only marginal benefits. Thus, an initial step in program implementation will be the development of quantitative metrics. A companion paper in these proceedings provides an update on the status of establishing these quantitative metrics for accident tolerant LWR fuel.1 The United States FCRD Advanced Fuels Campaign has embarked on an aggressive schedule for development of enhanced accident tolerant LWR fuels. The goal of developing such a fuel system that can be deployed in the U.S. LWR fleet in the next 10 to 20 years supports the sustainability of clean nuclear power generation in the United States.« less

Validation of the CALSPAN gross-motion-simulation code with actually occurring injury patterns in aircraft accidents.

PubMed

Ballo, J M; Dunne, M J; McMeekin, R R

1978-01-01

Digital simulation of aircraft-accident kinematics has heretofore been used almost exclusively as a design tool to explore structural load limits, precalculate decelerative forces at various cabin stations, and describe the effect of protective devices in the crash environment. In an effort to determine the value of digital computer simulation of fatal aircraft accidents, a fatality involving an ejection-system failure (out-of-envelope ejection) was modeled, and the injuries actually incurred were compared to those predicted; good agreement was found. The simulation of fatal aircraft accidents is advantageous because of a well-defined endpoint (death), lack of therapeutic intervention, and a static anatomic situation that can be minutely investigated. Such simulation techniques are a useful tool in the study of experimental trauma.

Road Traffic Accident Analysis of Ajmer City Using Remote Sensing and GIS Technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhalla, P.; Tripathi, S.; Palria, S.

2014-12-01

With advancement in technology, new and sophisticated models of vehicle are available and their numbers are increasing day by day. A traffic accident has multi-facet characteristics associated with it. In India 93% of crashes occur due to Human induced factor (wholly or partly). For proper traffic accident analysis use of GIS technology has become an inevitable tool. The traditional accident database is a summary spreadsheet format using codes and mileposts to denote location, type and severity of accidents. Geo-referenced accident database is location-referenced. It incorporates a GIS graphical interface with the accident information to allow for query searches on various accident attributes. Ajmer city, headquarter of Ajmer district, Rajasthan has been selected as the study area. According to Police records, 1531 accidents occur during 2009-2013. Maximum accident occurs in 2009 and the maximum death in 2013. Cars, jeeps, auto, pickup and tempo are mostly responsible for accidents and that the occurrence of accidents is mostly concentrated between 4PM to 10PM. GIS has proved to be a good tool for analyzing multifaceted nature of accidents. While road safety is a critical issue, yet it is handled in an adhoc manner. This Study is a demonstration of application of GIS for developing an efficient database on road accidents taking Ajmer City as a study. If such type of database is developed for other cities, a proper analysis of accidents can be undertaken and suitable management strategies for traffic regulation can be successfully proposed.

Middle Range Sea Ice Prediction System of Voyage Environmental Information System in Arctic Sea Route

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, H. S.

2017-12-01

Due to global warming, the sea ice in the Arctic Ocean is melting dramatically in summer, which is providing a new opportunity to exploit the Northern Sea Route (NSR) connecting Asia and Europe ship route. Recent increases in logistics transportation through NSR and resource development reveal the possible threats of marine pollution and marine transportation accidents without real-time navigation system. To develop a safe Voyage Environmental Information System (VEIS) for vessels operating, the Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology (KIOST) which is supported by the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries, Korea has initiated the development of short-term and middle range prediction system for the sea ice concentration (SIC) and sea ice thickness (SIT) in NSR since 2014. The sea ice prediction system of VEIS consists of AMSR2 satellite composite images (a day), short-term (a week) prediction system, and middle range (a month) prediction system using a statistical method with re-analysis data (TOPAZ) and short-term predicted model data. In this study, the middle range prediction system for the SIC and SIT in NSR is calibrated with another middle range predicted atmospheric and oceanic data (NOAA CFSv2). The system predicts one month SIC and SIT on a daily basis, as validated with dynamic composite SIC data extracted from AMSR2 L2 satellite images.

FASTGRASS: A mechanistic model for the prediction of Xe, I, Cs, Te, Ba, and Sr release from nuclear fuel under normal and severe-accident conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rest, J.; Zawadzki, S.A.

The primary physical/chemical models that form the basis of the FASTGRASS mechanistic computer model for calculating fission-product release from nuclear fuel are described. Calculated results are compared with test data and the major mechanisms affecting the transport of fission products during steady-state and accident conditions are identified.

Structural Analysis of the Right Rear Lug of American Airlines Flight 587

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raju, Ivatury S.; Glaessgen, Edward H.; Mason, Brian H.; Krishnamurthy, Thiagarajan; Davila, Carlos G.

2006-01-01

A detailed finite element analysis of the right rear lug of the American Airlines Flight 587 - Airbus A300-600R was performed as part of the National Transportation Safety Board s failure investigation of the accident that occurred on November 12, 2001. The loads experienced by the right rear lug are evaluated using global models of the vertical tail, local models near the right rear lug, and a global-local analysis procedure. The right rear lug was analyzed using two modeling approaches. In the first approach, solid-shell type modeling is used, and in the second approach, layered-shell type modeling is used. The solid-shell and the layered-shell modeling approaches were used in progressive failure analyses (PFA) to determine the load, mode, and location of failure in the right rear lug under loading representative of an Airbus certification test conducted in 1985 (the 1985-certification test). Both analyses were in excellent agreement with each other on the predicted failure loads, failure mode, and location of failure. The solid-shell type modeling was then used to analyze both a subcomponent test conducted by Airbus in 2003 (the 2003-subcomponent test) and the accident condition. Excellent agreement was observed between the analyses and the observed failures in both cases. The moment, Mx (moment about the fuselage longitudinal axis), has significant effect on the failure load of the lugs. Higher absolute values of Mx give lower failure loads. The predicted load, mode, and location of the failure of the 1985- certification test, 2003-subcomponent test, and the accident condition are in very good agreement. This agreement suggests that the 1985-certification and 2003-subcomponent tests represent the accident condition accurately. The failure mode of the right rear lug for the 1985-certification test, 2003-subcomponent test, and the accident load case is identified as a cleavage-type failure. For the accident case, the predicted failure load for the right rear lug from the PFA is greater than 1.98 times the limit load of the lugs.

HIGH-FIDELITY SIMULATION-DRIVEN MODEL DEVELOPMENT FOR COARSE-GRAINED COMPUTATIONAL FLUID DYNAMICS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hanna, Botros N.; Dinh, Nam T.; Bolotnov, Igor A.

Nuclear reactor safety analysis requires identifying various credible accident scenarios and determining their consequences. For a full-scale nuclear power plant system behavior, it is impossible to obtain sufficient experimental data for a broad range of risk-significant accident scenarios. In single-phase flow convective problems, Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) and Large Eddy Simulation (LES) can provide us with high fidelity results when physical data are unavailable. However, these methods are computationally expensive and cannot be afforded for simulation of long transient scenarios in nuclear accidents despite extraordinary advances in high performance scientific computing over the past decades. The major issue is themore » inability to make the transient computation parallel, thus making number of time steps required in high-fidelity methods unaffordable for long transients. In this work, we propose to apply a high fidelity simulation-driven approach to model sub-grid scale (SGS) effect in Coarse Grained Computational Fluid Dynamics CG-CFD. This approach aims to develop a statistical surrogate model instead of the deterministic SGS model. We chose to start with a turbulent natural convection case with volumetric heating in a horizontal fluid layer with a rigid, insulated lower boundary and isothermal (cold) upper boundary. This scenario of unstable stratification is relevant to turbulent natural convection in a molten corium pool during a severe nuclear reactor accident, as well as in containment mixing and passive cooling. The presented approach demonstrates how to create a correction for the CG-CFD solution by modifying the energy balance equation. A global correction for the temperature equation proves to achieve a significant improvement to the prediction of steady state temperature distribution through the fluid layer.« less

Evolution of Sports-related Headgear.

PubMed

Salvaterra, George

2016-09-01

The major focus of this review is to establish concussion in sport as a silent epidemic in our society that is not an accident. Brain injury has a definitive pattern and distinct nonrandom predictable characteristic. The development of successful head protection requires a scientific database approach to the mechanics of headgear. It is the responsibility of the health care clinician to help with the maintenance of protective standards for headgear and support rule changes to decrease the morbidity and mortality of athletes.

Rate Theory Modeling and Simulation of Silicide Fuel at LWR Conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miao, Yinbin; Ye, Bei; Hofman, Gerard

As a promising candidate for the accident tolerant fuel (ATF) used in light water reactors (LWRs), the fuel performance of uranium silicide (U 3Si 2) at LWR conditions needs to be well understood. In this report, rate theory model was developed based on existing experimental data and density functional theory (DFT) calculations so as to predict the fission gas behavior in U 3Si 2 at LWR conditions. The fission gas behavior of U 3Si 2 can be divided into three temperature regimes. During steady-state operation, the majority of the fission gas stays in intragranular bubbles, whereas the dominance of intergranularmore » bubbles and fission gas release only occurs beyond 1000 K. The steady-state rate theory model was also used as reference to establish a gaseous swelling correlation of U 3Si 2 for the BISON code. Meanwhile, the overpressurized bubble model was also developed so that the fission gas behavior at LOCA can be simulated. LOCA simulation showed that intragranular bubbles are still dominant after a 70 second LOCA, resulting in a controllable gaseous swelling. The fission gas behavior of U 3Si 2 at LWR conditions is benign according to the rate theory prediction at both steady-state and LOCA conditions, which provides important references to the qualification of U 3Si 2 as a LWR fuel material with excellent fuel performance and enhanced accident tolerance.« less

Numerical investigation on super-cooled large droplet icing of fan rotor blade in jet engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Isobe, Keisuke; Suzuki, Masaya; Yamamoto, Makoto

2014-10-01

Icing (or ice accretion) is a phenomenon in which super-cooled water droplets impinge and accrete on a body. It is well known that ice accretion on blades and vanes leads to performance degradation and has caused severe accidents. Although various anti-icing and deicing systems have been developed, such accidents still occur. Therefore, it is important to clarify the phenomenon of ice accretion on an aircraft and in a jet engine. However, flight tests for ice accretion are very expensive, and in the wind tunnel it is difficult to reproduce all climate conditions where ice accretion can occur. Therefore, it is expected that computational fluid dynamics (CFD), which can estimate ice accretion in various climate conditions, will be a useful way to predict and understand the ice accretion phenomenon. On the other hand, although the icing caused by super-cooled large droplets (SLD) is very dangerous, the numerical method has not been established yet. This is why SLD icing is characterized by splash and bounce phenomena of droplets and they are very complex in nature. In the present study, we develop an ice accretion code considering the splash and bounce phenomena to predict SLD icing, and the code is applied to a fan rotor blade. The numerical results with and without the SLD icing model are compared. Through this study, the influence of the SLD icing model is numerically clarified.

A systems approach to accident causation in mining: an application of the HFACS method.

PubMed

Lenné, Michael G; Salmon, Paul M; Liu, Charles C; Trotter, Margaret

2012-09-01

This project aimed to provide a greater understanding of the systemic factors involved in mining accidents, and to examine those organisational and supervisory failures that are predictive of sub-standard performance at operator level. A sample of 263 significant mining incidents in Australia across 2007-2008 were analysed using the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS). Two human factors specialists independently undertook the analysis. Incidents occurred more frequently in operations concerning the use of surface mobile equipment (38%) and working at heights (21%), however injury was more frequently associated with electrical operations and vehicles and machinery. Several HFACS categories appeared frequently: skill-based errors (64%) and violations (57%), issues with the physical environment (56%), and organisational processes (65%). Focussing on the overall system, several factors were found to predict the presence of failures in other parts of the system, including planned inappropriate operations and team resource management; inadequate supervision and team resource management; and organisational climate and inadequate supervision. It is recommended that these associations deserve greater attention in future attempts to develop accident countermeasures, although other significant associations should not be ignored. In accordance with findings from previous HFACS-based analyses of aviation and medical incidents, efforts to reduce the frequency of unsafe acts or operations should be directed to a few critical HFACS categories at the higher levels: organisational climate, planned inadequate operations, and inadequate supervision. While remedial strategies are proposed it is important that future efforts evaluate the utility of the measures proposed in studies of system safety. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Air oxidation of Zircaloy-4 in the 600-1000 °C temperature range: Modeling for ASTEC code application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coindreau, O.; Duriez, C.; Ederli, S.

2010-10-01

Progress in the treatment of air oxidation of zirconium in severe accident (SA) codes are required for a reliable analysis of severe accidents involving air ingress. Air oxidation of zirconium can actually lead to accelerated core degradation and increased fission product release, especially for the highly-radiotoxic ruthenium. This paper presents a model to simulate air oxidation kinetics of Zircaloy-4 in the 600-1000 °C temperature range. It is based on available experimental data, including separate-effect experiments performed at IRSN and at Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe. The kinetic transition, named "breakaway", from a diffusion-controlled regime to an accelerated oxidation is taken into account in the modeling via a critical mass gain parameter. The progressive propagation of the locally initiated breakaway is modeled by a linear increase in oxidation rate with time. Finally, when breakaway propagation is completed, the oxidation rate stabilizes and the kinetics is modeled by a linear law. This new modeling is integrated in the severe accident code ASTEC, jointly developed by IRSN and GRS. Model predictions and experimental data from thermogravimetric results show good agreement for different air flow rates and for slow temperature transient conditions.

Creep failure of a reactor pressure vessel lower head under severe accident conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pilch, M.M.; Ludwigsen, J.S.; Chu, T.Y.

A severe accident in a nuclear power plant could result in the relocation of large quantities of molten core material onto the lower head of he reactor pressure vessel (RPV). In the absence of inherent cooling mechanisms, failure of the RPV ultimately becomes possible under the combined effects of system pressure and the thermal heat-up of the lower head. Sandia National Laboratories has performed seven experiments at 1:5th scale simulating creep failure of a RPV lower head. This paper describes a modeling program that complements the experimental program. Analyses have been performed using the general-purpose finite-element code ABAQUS-5.6. In ordermore » to make ABAQUS solve the specific problem at hand, a material constitutive model that utilizes temperature dependent properties has been developed and attached to ABAQUS-executable through its UMAT utility. Analyses of the LHF-1 experiment predict instability-type failure. Predicted strains are delayed relative to the observed strain histories. Parametric variations on either the yield stress, creep rate, or both (within the range of material property data) can bring predictions into agreement with experiment. The analysis indicates that it is necessary to conduct material property tests on the actual material used in the experimental program. The constitutive model employed in the present analyses is the subject of a separate publication.« less

Cancer risk estimation in Belarussian children due to thyroid irradiation as a consequence of the Chernobyl nuclear accident

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Buglova, E.; Kenigsberg, J.E.; Sergeeva, N.V.

1996-07-01

The thyroid doses received by the juvenile population of Belarus following the Chernobyl accident ranged up to about 10 Gy. The thyroid cancer risk estimate recommended in NCRP Report No. 80 was used to predict the number of thyroid cancer cases among children during 1990-1992 in selected Belarussian regions and cities. The results obtained using this risk estimate show an excess of thyroid cancer cases being registered vs. the predicted cases. Thyroid cancer incidence rate among boys under investigation is higher than among girls in the postaccident period. The excess of the observed over the expected incidence in the generalmore » juvenile population is caused by the high thyroid cancer incidence rate among boys. These results, which can be considered part of the first stage of a thorough thyroid cancer risk estimation after the Chernobyl accident, demonstrate the critical need to complete these studies in depth. 6 refs., 5 figs., 3 tabs.« less

Precursors of dangerous substances formed in the loss of control of chemical systems.

PubMed

Cozzani, V; Zanelli, S

1999-03-01

Article 2 of Directive 96/82/EC on the control of major accident hazards caused by dangerous substances requires to consider also the hazards due to the dangerous substances "which it is believed may be generated during loss of control of an industrial chemical process", although no generally accepted guidelines are available for the identification of these substances. In the present study, the accidents involving the unwanted formation of dangerous substances as a consequence of the loss of control of chemical systems were investigated. A specifically developed database was used, containing data on more than 400 of these accidents and on the substances involved. The hazardous substances formed in the accidents and the precursors of these substances were identified. The influence of accident characteristics on the substances formed was investigated. In the context of the application of Directive 96/82/EC, an accident severity index and a hazard rating of the precursors of dangerous substances formed in the accidents were proposed. A lumping approach was used in order to develop schemes for the preliminary identification of substances that may be formed in the loss of control of chemical system. The results of accident analysis were used to test the schemes developed.

Railway crossing risk area detection using linear regression and terrain drop compensation techniques.

PubMed

Chen, Wen-Yuan; Wang, Mei; Fu, Zhou-Xing

2014-06-16

Most railway accidents happen at railway crossings. Therefore, how to detect humans or objects present in the risk area of a railway crossing and thus prevent accidents are important tasks. In this paper, three strategies are used to detect the risk area of a railway crossing: (1) we use a terrain drop compensation (TDC) technique to solve the problem of the concavity of railway crossings; (2) we use a linear regression technique to predict the position and length of an object from image processing; (3) we have developed a novel strategy called calculating local maximum Y-coordinate object points (CLMYOP) to obtain the ground points of the object. In addition, image preprocessing is also applied to filter out the noise and successfully improve the object detection. From the experimental results, it is demonstrated that our scheme is an effective and corrective method for the detection of railway crossing risk areas.

Railway Crossing Risk Area Detection Using Linear Regression and Terrain Drop Compensation Techniques

PubMed Central

Chen, Wen-Yuan; Wang, Mei; Fu, Zhou-Xing

2014-01-01

Most railway accidents happen at railway crossings. Therefore, how to detect humans or objects present in the risk area of a railway crossing and thus prevent accidents are important tasks. In this paper, three strategies are used to detect the risk area of a railway crossing: (1) we use a terrain drop compensation (TDC) technique to solve the problem of the concavity of railway crossings; (2) we use a linear regression technique to predict the position and length of an object from image processing; (3) we have developed a novel strategy called calculating local maximum Y-coordinate object points (CLMYOP) to obtain the ground points of the object. In addition, image preprocessing is also applied to filter out the noise and successfully improve the object detection. From the experimental results, it is demonstrated that our scheme is an effective and corrective method for the detection of railway crossing risk areas. PMID:24936948

The situation of hazardous chemical accidents in China between 2000 and 2006.

PubMed

Duan, Weili; Chen, Guohua; Ye, Qing; Chen, Qingguang

2011-02-28

From the aspects of the total quantity of accidents, regional inequality, enterprises scale and environmental pollution accidents, this study makes an analysis of hazardous chemical accidents in China for the period spanning from 2000 to 2006. The following results are obtained: firstly, there were lots of accidents and fatalities in hazardous chemical business, i.e., the number of casualty accidents fluctuated between 200 and 600/year, the number of fatality fluctuated between 220 and 1100/year. Secondly, the accident rate in developed southeast coastal areas, e.g., Guangdong, Zhejiang and Jiangsu, was far higher than that in the northwest regions, e.g., Xizang, Xinjiang, and Qinghai. Thirdly, nearly 80% of dangerous chemical accidents had occurred in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Finally, various sudden environmental pollution accidents resulted from hazardous chemicals were frequent in recent years, causing a huge damage to human and property. Then, based on the readjustment of economic structure in the last decades, the development status of Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) in SMEs and other factors, the paper explores the main causes, which offers valuable insight into measures that should be taken to reduce hazardous chemical accidents. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Developing an ontological explosion knowledge base for business continuity planning purposes.

PubMed

Mohammadfam, Iraj; Kalatpour, Omid; Golmohammadi, Rostam; Khotanlou, Hasan

2013-01-01

Industrial accidents are among the most known challenges to business continuity. Many organisations have lost their reputation following devastating accidents. To manage the risks of such accidents, it is necessary to accumulate sufficient knowledge regarding their roots, causes and preventive techniques. The required knowledge might be obtained through various approaches, including databases. Unfortunately, many databases are hampered by (among other things) static data presentations, a lack of semantic features, and the inability to present accident knowledge as discrete domains. This paper proposes the use of Protégé software to develop a knowledge base for the domain of explosion accidents. Such a structure has a higher capability to improve information retrieval compared with common accident databases. To accomplish this goal, a knowledge management process model was followed. The ontological explosion knowledge base (EKB) was built for further applications, including process accident knowledge retrieval and risk management. The paper will show how the EKB has a semantic feature that enables users to overcome some of the search constraints of existing accident databases.

Safety leadership at construction sites: the importance of rule-oriented and participative leadership.

PubMed

Grill, Martin; Pousette, Anders; Nielsen, Kent; Grytnes, Regine; Törner, Marianne

2017-07-01

Objectives The construction industry accounted for >20% of all fatal occupational accidents in Europe in 2014. Leadership is an essential antecedent to occupational safety. The aim of the present study was to assess the influence of transformational, active transactional, rule-oriented, participative, and laissez-faire leadership on safety climate, safety behavior, and accidents in the Swedish and Danish construction industry. Sweden and Denmark are similar countries but have a large difference in occupational accidents rates. Methods A questionnaire study was conducted among a random sample of construction workers in both countries: 811 construction workers from 85 sites responded, resulting in site and individual response rates of 73% and 64%, respectively. Results The results indicated that transformational, active transactional, rule-oriented and participative leadership predict positive safety outcomes, and laissez-faire leadership predict negative safety outcomes. For example, rule-oriented leadership predicts a superior safety climate (β=0.40, P<0.001), enhanced safety behavior (β=0.15, P<0.001), and fewer accidents [odds ratio (OR) 0.78, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.62-0.98]. The effect of rule-oriented leadership on workers' safety behavior was moderated by the level of participative leadership (β=0.10, P<0.001), suggesting that when rules and plans are established in a collaborative manner, workers' motivation to comply with safety regulations and participate in proactive safety activities is elevated. The influence of leadership behaviors on safety outcomes were largely similar in Sweden and Denmark. Rule-oriented and participative leadership were more common in the Swedish than Danish construction industry, which may partly explain the difference in occupational accident rates. Conclusions Applying less laissez-faire leadership and more transformational, active transactional, participative and rule-oriented leadership appears to be an effective way for construction site managers to improve occupational safety in the industry.

Survey of Thermal-Fluids Evaluation and Confirmatory Experimental Validation Requirements of Accident Tolerant Cladding Concepts with Focus on Boiling Heat Transfer Characteristics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brown, Nicholas R.; Wysocki, Aaron J.; Terrani, Kurt A.

The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) Advanced Fuels Campaign (AFC) is working closely with the nuclear industry to develop fuel and cladding candidates with potentially enhanced accident tolerance, also known as accident tolerant fuel (ATF). Thermal-fluids characteristics are a vital element of a holistic engineering evaluation of ATF concepts. One vital characteristic related to boiling heat transfer is the critical heat flux (CHF). CHF plays a vital role in determining safety margins during normal operation and also in the progression of potential transient or accident scenarios. This deliverable is a scoping survey of thermal-fluids evaluation andmore » confirmatory experimental validation requirements of accident tolerant cladding concepts with a focus on boiling heat transfer characteristics. The key takeaway messages of this report are: 1. CHF prediction accuracy is important and the correlations may have significant uncertainty. 2. Surface conditions are important factors for CHF, primarily the wettability that is characterized by contact angle. Smaller contact angle indicates greater wettability, which increases the CHF. Surface roughness also impacts wettability. Results in the literature for pool boiling experiments indicate changes in CHF by up to 60% for several ATF cladding candidates. 3. The measured wettability of FeCrAl (i.e., contact angle and roughness) indicates that CHF should be investigated further through pool boiling and flow boiling experiments. 4. Initial measurements of static advancing contact angle and surface roughness indicate that FeCrAl is expected to have a higher CHF than Zircaloy. The measured contact angle of different FeCrAl alloy samples depends on oxide layer thickness and composition. The static advancing contact angle tends to decrease as the oxide layer thickness increases.« less

Do aggressive driving and negative emotional driving mediate the link between impulsiveness and risky driving among young Italian drivers?

PubMed

Smorti, Martina; Guarnieri, Silvia

2016-01-01

The present study examined the contribution of impulsiveness and aggressive and negative emotional driving to the prediction of traffic violations and accidents taking into account potential mediation effects. Three hundred and four young drivers completed self-report measures assessing impulsiveness, aggressive and negative emotional driving, driving violations, and accidents. Structural equation modeling was used to assess the direct and indirect effects of impulsiveness on violations and accidents among young drivers through aggressive and negative emotional driving. Impulsiveness only indirectly influenced drivers' violations on the road via both the behavioral and emotional states of the driver. On the contrary, impulsiveness was neither directly nor indirectly associated with traffic accidents. Therefore, impulsiveness modulates young drivers' behavioral and emotional states while driving, which in turn influences risky driving.

A Report of the Joint Development of a Prototype Communications Link to Share Nuclear Accident Dispersion and Dose Assessment Modeling Products Between JAERI/WSPEEDI and LLNL/NARAC

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sullivan, T J; Belles, R D; Ellis, J S

2001-05-01

In June of 1997, under an umbrella Memorandum of Understanding between the Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI) and the U.S. Department of Energy (US/DOE) concerning matters of nuclear research and development, a Specific Memorandum of Agreement (SMA) entitled ''A Collaborative Programme of Development of a Prototype Communication Link to Share Atmospheric Dispersion and Dose Assessment Modelling Products'' was signed. This SMA formalized an informal collaborative exchange between the DOE's Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) center and the Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI) Worldwide System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information (WSPEEDI). Themore » intended objective of this agreement was to explore various modes of information exchange, beyond facsimile transmission, which could provide for the quick exchange of information between two major nuclear emergency dose assessment and prediction national centers to provide consistency checks and data exchange before public release of their calculations. The extreme sensitivity of the general public to any nuclear accident information has been a strong motivation to seek peer preview prior to public release. Other intended objectives of this work are the development of an affordable/accessible system for distribution of prediction results to other countries having no prediction capabilities and utilization of the link for collaboration studies. To fulfill the objectives of this project JAERI and LLNL scientists determined to assess the evolving Internet and rapidly emerging communications application software. Our timing was a little early in 1997-1998 but nonetheless a few candidate software packages were found, evaluated and a selection was made for initial test and evaluation. Subsequently several new candidate software packages have arrived, albeit with limitations. This report outlines the ARAC and JAERI emergency response assessment systems, describes the prototype communications protocol system established and the tools evaluated in that process. Three real-time applications of the information exchange protocol and lessons learned are discussed and then some conclusions and future plans are presented.« less

The clinical course over the first year of Whiplash Associated Disorders (WAD): pain-related disability predicts outcome in a mildly affected sample

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Different recovery patterns are reported for those befallen a whip-lash injury, but little is known about the variability within subgroups. The aims were (1) to compare a self-selected mildly affected sample (MILD) with a self-selected moderately to severely affected sample (MOD/SEV) with regard to background characteristics and pain-related disability, pain intensity, functional self-efficacy, fear of movement/(re)injury, pain catastrophising, post-traumatic stress symptoms in the acute stage (at baseline), (2) to study the development over the first year after the accident for the above listed clinical variables in the MILD sample, and (3) to study the validity of a prediction model including baseline levels of clinical variables on pain-related disability one year after baseline assessments. Methods The study had a prospective and correlative design. Ninety-eight participants were consecutively selected. Inclusion criteria; age 18 to 65 years, WAD grade I-II, Swedish language skills, and subjective report of not being in need of treatment due to mild symptoms. A multivariate linear regression model was applied for the prediction analysis. Results The MILD sample was less affected in all study variables compared to the MOD/SEV sample. Pain-related disability, pain catastrophising, and post-traumatic stress symptoms decreased over the first year after the accident, whereas functional self-efficacy and fear of movement/(re)injury increased. Pain intensity was stable. Pain-related disability at baseline emerged as the only statistically significant predictor of pain-related disability one year after the accident (Adj r2 = 0.67). Conclusion A good prognosis over the first year is expected for the majority of individuals with WAD grade I or II who decline treatment due to mild symptoms. The prediction model was not valid in the MILD sample except for the contribution of pain-related disability. An implication is that early observations of individuals with elevated levels of pain-related disability are warranted, although they may decline treatment. PMID:24359208

Atmospheric dispersion prediction and source estimation of hazardous gas using artificial neural network, particle swarm optimization and expectation maximization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, Sihang; Chen, Bin; Wang, Rongxiao; Zhu, Zhengqiu; Wang, Yuan; Qiu, Xiaogang

2018-04-01

Hazardous gas leak accident has posed a potential threat to human beings. Predicting atmospheric dispersion and estimating its source become increasingly important in emergency management. Current dispersion prediction and source estimation models cannot satisfy the requirement of emergency management because they are not equipped with high efficiency and accuracy at the same time. In this paper, we develop a fast and accurate dispersion prediction and source estimation method based on artificial neural network (ANN), particle swarm optimization (PSO) and expectation maximization (EM). The novel method uses a large amount of pre-determined scenarios to train the ANN for dispersion prediction, so that the ANN can predict concentration distribution accurately and efficiently. PSO and EM are applied for estimating the source parameters, which can effectively accelerate the process of convergence. The method is verified by the Indianapolis field study with a SF6 release source. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the method.

Improving a prediction system for oil spills in the Yellow Sea: effect of tides on subtidal flow.

PubMed

Kim, Chang-Sin; Cho, Yang-Ki; Choi, Byoung-Ju; Jung, Kyung Tae; You, Sung Hyup

2013-03-15

A multi-nested prediction system for the Yellow Sea using drifter trajectory simulations was developed to predict the movements of an oil spill after the MV Hebei Spirit accident. The speeds of the oil spill trajectories predicted by the model without tidal forcing were substantially faster than the observations; however, predictions taking into account the tides, including both tidal cycle and subtidal periods, were satisfactorily improved. Subtidal flow in the simulation without tides was stronger than in that with tides because of reduced frictional effects. Friction induced by tidal stress decelerated the southward subtidal flows driven by northwesterly winter winds along the Korean coast of the Yellow Sea. These results strongly suggest that in order to produce accurate predictions of oil spill trajectories, simulations must include tidal effects, such as variations within a tidal cycle and advections over longer time scales in tide-dominated areas. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Scaling Equations for Ballistic Modeling of Solid Rocket Motor Case Breach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McMillin, Joshua E.

2006-01-01

This paper explores the development of a series of scaling equations that can take a known nominal motor performance and scale it for small and growing case failures. This model was developed for the Malfunction-Turn Study as part of Return to Flight activities for the Space Shuttle program. To verify the model, data from the Challenger accident (STS- 51L) were used. The model is able to predict the motor performance beyond the last recorded Challenger data and show how the failed right hand booster would have performed if the vehicle had remained intact.

Development of water environment information management and water pollution accident response system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, J.; Ruan, H.

2009-12-01

In recent years, many water pollution accidents occurred with the rapid economical development. In this study, water environment information management and water pollution accident response system are developed based on geographic information system (GIS) techniques. The system integrated spatial database, attribute database, hydraulic model, and water quality model under a user-friendly interface in a GIS environment. System ran in both Client/Server (C/S) and Browser/Server (B/S) platform which focused on model and inquiry respectively. System provided spatial and attribute data inquiry, water quality evaluation, statics, water pollution accident response case management (opening reservoir etc) and 2D and 3D visualization function, and gave assistant information to make decision on water pollution accident response. Polluted plume in Huaihe River were selected to simulate the transport of pollutes.

As assessment of power system vulnerability to release of carbon fibers during commercial aviation accidents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Larocque, G. R.

1980-01-01

The vulnerability of a power distribution system in Bedford and Lexington, Massachusetts to power outages as a result of exposure to carbon fibers released in a commercial aviation accident in 1993 was examined. Possible crash scenarios at Logan Airport based on current operational data and estimated carbon fiber usage levels were used to predict exposure levels and occurrence probabilities. The analysis predicts a mean time between carbon fiber induced power outages of 2300 years with an expected annual consequence of 0.7 persons losing power. In comparison to historical outage data for the system, this represents a 0.007% increase in outage rate and 0.07% increase in consequence.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schwantes, Jon M.

Kelly Fitzgerald Kelly Fitzgerald assisted with laboratory testing for an ongoing R&D project known as Electrochemically Modulated Separation (EMS) for on-line rapid preseparations of actinides prior to mass spectrometry analysis. Ryne Burgess Ryne Burgess used SCALE 5.1 ORIGEN-ARP to predict isotope libraries for the Units 1, 2 and 3 reactors and Unit 4 spent fuel pool for comparing against measurements of environmental sampled collected at the site in order to identify the source terms of the accident. Comparison of the cesium 134/137 and cesium 136/137 ratios observed in environmental samples and ORIGEN-ARP predictions indicated that the Unit 4 Spent Fuelmore » Pool did not significantly contribute to radionuclide release during the Fukushima Daiichi accident.« less

Insights Gained from Forensic Analysis with MELCOR of the Fukushima-Daiichi Accidents.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Andrews, Nathan C.; Gauntt, Randall O.

Since the accidents at Fukushima-Daiichi, Sandia National Laboratories has been modeling these accident scenarios using the severe accident analysis code, MELCOR. MELCOR is a widely used computer code developed at Sandia National Laboratories since ~1982 for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Insights from the modeling of these accidents is being used to better inform future code development and potentially improved accident management. To date, our necessity to better capture in-vessel thermal-hydraulic and ex-vessel melt coolability and concrete interactions has led to the implementation of new models. The most recent analyses, presented in this paper, have been in support of themore » of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Nuclear Energy Agency’s (OECD/NEA) Benchmark Study of the Accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (BSAF) Project. The goal of this project is to accurately capture the source term from all three releases and then model the atmospheric dispersion. In order to do this, a forensic approach is being used in which available plant data and release timings is being used to inform the modeled MELCOR accident scenario. For example, containment failures, core slumping events and lower head failure timings are all enforced parameters in these analyses. This approach is fundamentally different from a blind code assessment analysis often used in standard problem exercises. The timings of these events are informed by representative spikes or decreases in plant data. The combination of improvements to the MELCOR source code resulting from analysis previous accident analysis and this forensic approach has allowed Sandia to generate representative and plausible source terms for all three accidents at Fukushima Daiichi out to three weeks after the accident to capture both early and late releases. In particular, using the source terms developed by MELCOR, the MACCS software code, which models atmospheric dispersion and deposition, we are able to reasonably capture the deposition of radionuclides to the northwest of the reactor site.« less

TRAC-PF1 code verification with data from the OTIS test facility. [Once-Through Intergral System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Childerson, M.T.; Fujita, R.K.

1985-01-01

A computer code (TRAC-PF1/MOD1) developed for predicting transient thermal and hydraulic integral nuclear steam supply system (NSSS) response was benchmarked. Post-small break loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) data from a scaled, experimental facility, designated the One-Through Integral System (OTIS), were obtained for the Babcock and Wilcox NSSS and compared to TRAC predictions. The OTIS tests provided a challenging small break LOCA data set for TRAC verification. The major phases of a small break LOCA observed in the OTIS tests included pressurizer draining and loop saturation, intermittent reactor coolant system circulation, boiler-condenser mode, and the initial stages of refill. The TRAC code wasmore » successful in predicting OTIS loop conditions (system pressures and temperatures) after modification of the steam generator model. In particular, the code predicted both pool and auxiliary-feedwater initiated boiler-condenser mode heat transfer.« less

Prediction of movement intention using connectivity within motor-related network: An electrocorticography study.

PubMed

Kang, Byeong Keun; Kim, June Sic; Ryun, Seokyun; Chung, Chun Kee

2018-01-01

Most brain-machine interface (BMI) studies have focused only on the active state of which a BMI user performs specific movement tasks. Therefore, models developed for predicting movements were optimized only for the active state. The models may not be suitable in the idle state during resting. This potential maladaptation could lead to a sudden accident or unintended movement resulting from prediction error. Prediction of movement intention is important to develop a more efficient and reasonable BMI system which could be selectively operated depending on the user's intention. Physical movement is performed through the serial change of brain states: idle, planning, execution, and recovery. The motor networks in the primary motor cortex and the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex are involved in these movement states. Neuronal communication differs between the states. Therefore, connectivity may change depending on the states. In this study, we investigated the temporal dynamics of connectivity in dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and primary motor cortex to predict movement intention. Movement intention was successfully predicted by connectivity dynamics which may reflect changes in movement states. Furthermore, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex is crucial in predicting movement intention to which primary motor cortex contributes. These results suggest that brain connectivity is an excellent approach in predicting movement intention.

NASA Turbulence Technologies In-Service Evaluation: Delta Air Lines Report-Out

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Amaral, Christian; Dickson, Steve; Watts, Bill

2007-01-01

Concluding an in-service evaluation of two new turbulence detection technologies developed in the Turbulence Prediction and Warning Systems (TPAWS) element of the NASA Aviation Safety and Security Program's Weather Accident Prevention Project (WxAP), this report documents Delta's experience working with the technologies, feedback gained from pilots and dispatchers concerning current turbulence techniques and procedures, and Delta's recommendations regarding directions for further efforts by the research community. Technologies evaluated included an automatic airborne turbulence encounter reporting technology called the Turbulence Auto PIREP System (TAPS), and a significant enhancement to the ability of modern airborne weather radars to predict and display turbulence of operational significance, called E-Turb radar.

Safer passenger car front shapes for pedestrians: A computational approach to reduce overall pedestrian injury risk in realistic impact scenarios.

PubMed

Li, Guibing; Yang, Jikuang; Simms, Ciaran

2017-03-01

Vehicle front shape has a significant influence on pedestrian injuries and the optimal design for overall pedestrian protection remains an elusive goal, especially considering the variability of vehicle-to-pedestrian accident scenarios. Therefore this study aims to develop and evaluate an efficient framework for vehicle front shape optimization for pedestrian protection accounting for the broad range of real world impact scenarios and their distributions in recent accident data. Firstly, a framework for vehicle front shape optimization for pedestrian protection was developed based on coupling of multi-body simulations and a genetic algorithm. This framework was then applied for optimizing passenger car front shape for pedestrian protection, and its predictions were evaluated using accident data and kinematic analyses. The results indicate that the optimization shows a good convergence and predictions of the optimization framework are corroborated when compared to the available accident data, and the optimization framework can distinguish 'good' and 'poor' vehicle front shapes for pedestrian safety. Thus, it is feasible and reliable to use the optimization framework for vehicle front shape optimization for reducing overall pedestrian injury risk. The results also show the importance of considering the broad range of impact scenarios in vehicle front shape optimization. A safe passenger car for overall pedestrian protection should have a wide and flat bumper (covering pedestrians' legs from the lower leg up to the shaft of the upper leg with generally even contacts), a bonnet leading edge height around 750mm, a short bonnet (<800mm) with a shallow or steep angle (either >17° or <12°) and a shallow windscreen (≤30°). Sensitivity studies based on simulations at the population level indicate that the demands for a safe passenger car front shape for head and leg protection are generally consistent, but partially conflict with pelvis protection. In particular, both head and leg injury risk increase with increasing bumper lower height and depth, and decrease with increasing bonnet leading edge height, while pelvis injury risk increases with increasing bonnet leading edge height. However, the effects of bonnet leading edge height and windscreen design on head injury risk are complex and require further analysis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

14 CFR 420.59 - Launch site accident investigation plan.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Launch site accident investigation plan... Licensee § 420.59 Launch site accident investigation plan. (a) General. A licensee shall develop and implement a launch site accident investigation plan that contains the licensee's procedures for reporting...

14 CFR 420.59 - Launch site accident investigation plan.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Launch site accident investigation plan... Licensee § 420.59 Launch site accident investigation plan. (a) General. A licensee shall develop and implement a launch site accident investigation plan that contains the licensee's procedures for reporting...

Recent MELCOR and VICTORIA Fission Product Research at the NRC

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bixler, N.E.; Cole, R.K.; Gauntt, R.O.

1999-01-21

The MELCOR and VICTORIA severe accident analysis codes, which were developed at Sandia National Laboratories for the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, are designed to estimate fission product releases during nuclear reactor accidents in light water reactors. MELCOR is an integrated plant-assessment code that models the key phenomena in adequate detail for risk-assessment purposes. VICTORIA is a more specialized fission- product code that provides detailed modeling of chemical reactions and aerosol processes under the high-temperature conditions encountered in the reactor coolant system during a severe reactor accident. This paper focuses on recent enhancements and assessments of the two codes inmore » the area of fission product chemistry modeling. Recently, a model for iodine chemistry in aqueous pools in the containment building was incorporated into the MELCOR code. The model calculates dissolution of iodine into the pool and releases of organic and inorganic iodine vapors from the pool into the containment atmosphere. The main purpose of this model is to evaluate the effect of long-term revolatilization of dissolved iodine. Inputs to the model include dose rate in the pool, the amount of chloride-containing polymer, such as Hypalon, and the amount of buffering agents in the containment. Model predictions are compared against the Radioiodine Test Facility (RTF) experiments conduced by Atomic Energy of Canada Limited (AECL), specifically International Standard Problem 41. Improvements to VICTORIA's chemical reactions models were implemented as a result of recommendations from a peer review of VICTORIA that was completed last year. Specifically, an option is now included to model aerosols and deposited fission products as three condensed phases in addition to the original option of a single condensed phase. The three-condensed-phase model results in somewhat higher predicted fission product volatilities than does the single-condensed-phase model. Modeling of U02 thermochemistry was also improved, and results in better prediction of vaporization of uranium from fuel, which can react with released fission products to affect their volatility. This model also improves the prediction of fission product release rates from fuel. Finally, recent comparisons of MELCOR and VICTORIA with International Standard Problem 40 (STORM) data are presented. These comparisons focus on predicted therrnophoretic deposition, which is the dominant deposition mechanism. Sensitivity studies were performed with the codes to examine experimental and modeling uncertainties.« less

Application of a predictive Bayesian model to environmental accounting.

PubMed

Anex, R P; Englehardt, J D

2001-03-30

Environmental accounting techniques are intended to capture important environmental costs and benefits that are often overlooked in standard accounting practices. Environmental accounting methods themselves often ignore or inadequately represent large but highly uncertain environmental costs and costs conditioned by specific prior events. Use of a predictive Bayesian model is demonstrated for the assessment of such highly uncertain environmental and contingent costs. The predictive Bayesian approach presented generates probability distributions for the quantity of interest (rather than parameters thereof). A spreadsheet implementation of a previously proposed predictive Bayesian model, extended to represent contingent costs, is described and used to evaluate whether a firm should undertake an accelerated phase-out of its PCB containing transformers. Variability and uncertainty (due to lack of information) in transformer accident frequency and severity are assessed simultaneously using a combination of historical accident data, engineering model-based cost estimates, and subjective judgement. Model results are compared using several different risk measures. Use of the model for incorporation of environmental risk management into a company's overall risk management strategy is discussed.

29 CFR 1960.29 - Accident investigation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... accident shall be left untouched until inspectors have an opportunity to examine it. (c) Any information or evidence uncovered during accident investigations which would be of benefit in developing a new OSHA...

29 CFR 1960.29 - Accident investigation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... accident shall be left untouched until inspectors have an opportunity to examine it. (c) Any information or evidence uncovered during accident investigations which would be of benefit in developing a new OSHA...

Modified ensemble Kalman filter for nuclear accident atmospheric dispersion: prediction improved and source estimated.

PubMed

Zhang, X L; Su, G F; Yuan, H Y; Chen, J G; Huang, Q Y

2014-09-15

Atmospheric dispersion models play an important role in nuclear power plant accident management. A reliable estimation of radioactive material distribution in short range (about 50 km) is in urgent need for population sheltering and evacuation planning. However, the meteorological data and the source term which greatly influence the accuracy of the atmospheric dispersion models are usually poorly known at the early phase of the emergency. In this study, a modified ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation method in conjunction with a Lagrangian puff-model is proposed to simultaneously improve the model prediction and reconstruct the source terms for short range atmospheric dispersion using the off-site environmental monitoring data. Four main uncertainty parameters are considered: source release rate, plume rise height, wind speed and wind direction. Twin experiments show that the method effectively improves the predicted concentration distribution, and the temporal profiles of source release rate and plume rise height are also successfully reconstructed. Moreover, the time lag in the response of ensemble Kalman filter is shortened. The method proposed here can be a useful tool not only in the nuclear power plant accident emergency management but also in other similar situation where hazardous material is released into the atmosphere. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Public Response to a Near-Miss Nuclear Accident Scenario Varying in Causal Attributions and Outcome Uncertainty.

PubMed

Cui, Jinshu; Rosoff, Heather; John, Richard S

2018-05-01

Many studies have investigated public reactions to nuclear accidents. However, few studies focused on more common events when a serious accident could have happened but did not. This study evaluated public response (emotional, cognitive, and behavioral) over three phases of a near-miss nuclear accident. Simulating a loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) scenario, we manipulated (1) attribution for the initial cause of the incident (software failure vs. cyber terrorist attack vs. earthquake), (2) attribution for halting the incident (fail-safe system design vs. an intervention by an individual expert vs. a chance coincidence), and (3) level of uncertainty (certain vs. uncertain) about risk of a future radiation leak after the LOCA is halted. A total of 773 respondents were sampled using a 3 × 3 × 2 between-subjects design. Results from both MANCOVA and structural equation modeling (SEM) indicate that respondents experienced more negative affect, perceived more risk, and expressed more avoidance behavioral intention when the near-miss event was initiated by an external attributed source (e.g., earthquake) compared to an internally attributed source (e.g., software failure). Similarly, respondents also indicated greater negative affect, perceived risk, and avoidance behavioral intentions when the future impact of the near-miss incident on people and the environment remained uncertain. Results from SEM analyses also suggested that negative affect predicted risk perception, and both predicted avoidance behavior. Affect, risk perception, and avoidance behavior demonstrated high stability (i.e., reliability) from one phase to the next. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Road Accident Prevention with Instant Emergency Warning Message Dissemination in Vehicular Ad-Hoc Network.

PubMed

Gokulakrishnan, P; Ganeshkumar, P

2015-01-01

A Road Accident Prevention (RAP) scheme based on Vehicular Backbone Network (VBN) structure is proposed in this paper for Vehicular Ad-hoc Network (VANET). The RAP scheme attempts to prevent vehicles from highway road traffic accidents and thereby reduces death and injury rates. Once the possibility of an emergency situation (i.e. an accident) is predicted in advance, instantly RAP initiates a highway road traffic accident prevention scheme. The RAP scheme constitutes the following activities: (i) the Road Side Unit (RSU) constructs a Prediction Report (PR) based on the status of the vehicles and traffic in the highway roads, (ii) the RSU generates an Emergency Warning Message (EWM) based on an abnormal PR, (iii) the RSU forms a VBN structure and (iv) the RSU disseminates the EWM to the vehicles that holds the high Risk Factor (RF) and travels in High Risk Zone (HRZ). These vehicles might reside either within the RSU's coverage area or outside RSU's coverage area (reached using VBN structure). The RAP scheme improves the performance of EWM dissemination in terms of increase in notification and decrease in end-to-end delay. The RAP scheme also reduces infrastructure cost (number of RSUs) by formulating and deploying the VBN structure. The RAP scheme with VBN structure improves notification by 19 percent and end-to-end delay by 14.38 percent for a vehicle density of 160 vehicles. It is also proved from the simulation experiment that the performance of RAP scheme is promising in 4-lane highway roads.

Road Accident Prevention with Instant Emergency Warning Message Dissemination in Vehicular Ad-Hoc Network

PubMed Central

P, Gokulakrishnan; P, Ganeshkumar

2015-01-01

A Road Accident Prevention (RAP) scheme based on Vehicular Backbone Network (VBN) structure is proposed in this paper for Vehicular Ad-hoc Network (VANET). The RAP scheme attempts to prevent vehicles from highway road traffic accidents and thereby reduces death and injury rates. Once the possibility of an emergency situation (i.e. an accident) is predicted in advance, instantly RAP initiates a highway road traffic accident prevention scheme. The RAP scheme constitutes the following activities: (i) the Road Side Unit (RSU) constructs a Prediction Report (PR) based on the status of the vehicles and traffic in the highway roads, (ii) the RSU generates an Emergency Warning Message (EWM) based on an abnormal PR, (iii) the RSU forms a VBN structure and (iv) the RSU disseminates the EWM to the vehicles that holds the high Risk Factor (RF) and travels in High Risk Zone (HRZ). These vehicles might reside either within the RSU’s coverage area or outside RSU’s coverage area (reached using VBN structure). The RAP scheme improves the performance of EWM dissemination in terms of increase in notification and decrease in end-to-end delay. The RAP scheme also reduces infrastructure cost (number of RSUs) by formulating and deploying the VBN structure. The RAP scheme with VBN structure improves notification by 19 percent and end-to-end delay by 14.38 percent for a vehicle density of 160 vehicles. It is also proved from the simulation experiment that the performance of RAP scheme is promising in 4-lane highway roads. PMID:26636576

Analysis of defects of overhead facade systems and other light thin-walled structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Endzhievskiy, L.; Frolovskaia, A.; Petrova, Y.

2017-04-01

This paper analyzes the defects and the causes of contemporary design solutions with an example of overhead facade systems with ventilated air gaps and light steel thin-walled structures on the basis of field experiments. The analysis is performed at all stages of work: design, manufacture, including quality, construction, and operation. Practical examples are given. The main causes of accidents and the accident rate prediction are looked upon and discussed.

Visualization of Traffic Accidents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Jie; Shen, Yuzhong; Khattak, Asad

2010-01-01

Traffic accidents have tremendous impact on society. Annually approximately 6.4 million vehicle accidents are reported by police in the US and nearly half of them result in catastrophic injuries. Visualizations of traffic accidents using geographic information systems (GIS) greatly facilitate handling and analysis of traffic accidents in many aspects. Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI), Inc. is the world leader in GIS research and development. ArcGIS, a software package developed by ESRI, has the capabilities to display events associated with a road network, such as accident locations, and pavement quality. But when event locations related to a road network are processed, the existing algorithm used by ArcGIS does not utilize all the information related to the routes of the road network and produces erroneous visualization results of event locations. This software bug causes serious problems for applications in which accurate location information is critical for emergency responses, such as traffic accidents. This paper aims to address this problem and proposes an improved method that utilizes all relevant information of traffic accidents, namely, route number, direction, and mile post, and extracts correct event locations for accurate traffic accident visualization and analysis. The proposed method generates a new shape file for traffic accidents and displays them on top of the existing road network in ArcGIS. Visualization of traffic accidents along Hampton Roads Bridge Tunnel is included to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Monitoring seabird populations in areas of oil and gas development on the Alaskan Continental Shelf: A computerized pelagic seabird atlas for Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Piatt, John F.; Ford, R. Glenn

2000-01-01

Seabirds are the most visible and vulnerable victims of oil pollution in marine waters. As demonstrated by the "Exxon Valdez" spill (Piatt et al. 1990), we cannot predict when or where an accident leading to pollution might occur in Alaska, or where oil will eventually end up traveling from a point source of pollution. It is therefore prudent to document the abundance and distribution of seabirds throughout Alaska in order to: i) assist in the planning and development of future oil fields, ii) identify areas with significant and predictable aggregations of seabirds so that these areas might be avoided, if possible, in the extraction and shipment of oil, and, iii) mitigate and assess the impact of oil pollution if and when it occurs.

Industrial accidents are related to relative body weight: the Israeli CORDIS study.

PubMed Central

Froom, P; Melamed, S; Kristal-Boneh, E; Gofer, D; Ribak, J

1996-01-01

OBJECTIVES: The accident rate might be influenced by intrinsic characteristics of the workers, by risks inherent in the work environment, or a combination of these factors. As increased weight may be associated with sleep disturbances and fatigue, a high body mass index (BMI) might be an independent risk factor for accidents in industrial workers. METHODS: 3801 men were examined and followed up for two years for the occurrence of accidents. The objective environmental conditions were recorded and translated into a single score of ergonomic stress levels. Height and weight were recorded, as were possible confounding factors including measures of fatigue, type A personality, total night time sleep, job satisfaction, somatic complaints, smoking, and education levels. RESULTS: Both BMI and ergonomic stress levels independently predicted involvement in accidents (two or more) with those in the highest BMI quartile who worked in an environment with high ergonomic stress levels having a 4-6 times increased risk of accidents compared with those in the lowest BMI quartile who worked in an environment with low ergonomic stress levels (95% confidence interval (95% CI) 2.4-9.0, P < 0.001). Although increasing somatic complaints and a low educational level also were predictors of accidents, they did not mediate the effect of the BMI on the accident rate. Increasing age, less smoking, and decreased sleep hours were significantly associated with an increased BMI, but the association of BMI and involvement in accidents also could not be explained by those factors or the other confounders. CONCLUSIONS: BMI independently influences the accident rate. Further studies warranted to confirm these findings and to explore mechanisms supporting biological plausibility. PMID:9004929

Condensation model for the ESBWR passive condensers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Revankar, S. T.; Zhou, W.; Wolf, B.

2012-07-01

In the General Electric's Economic simplified boiling water reactor (GE-ESBWR) the passive containment cooling system (PCCS) plays a major role in containment pressure control in case of an loss of coolant accident. The PCCS condenser must be able to remove sufficient energy from the reactor containment to prevent containment from exceeding its design pressure following a design basis accident. There are three PCCS condensation modes depending on the containment pressurization due to coolant discharge; complete condensation, cyclic venting and flow through mode. The present work reviews the models and presents model predictive capability along with comparison with existing data frommore » separate effects test. The condensation models in thermal hydraulics code RELAP5 are also assessed to examine its application to various flow modes of condensation. The default model in the code predicts complete condensation well, and basically is Nusselt solution. The UCB model predicts through flow well. None of condensation model in RELAP5 predict complete condensation, cyclic venting, and through flow condensation consistently. New condensation correlations are given that accurately predict all three modes of PCCS condensation. (authors)« less

Physiologic, demographic and mechanistic factors predicting New Injury Severity Score (NISS) in motor vehicle accident victims.

PubMed

Staff, T; Eken, T; Wik, L; Røislien, J; Søvik, S

2014-01-01

Current literature on motor vehicle accidents (MVAs) has few reports regarding field factors that predict the degree of injury. Also, studies of mechanistic factors rarely consider concurrent predictive effects of on-scene patient physiology. The New Injury Severity Score (NISS) has previously been found to correlate with mortality, need for ICU admission, length of hospital stay, and functional recovery after trauma. To potentially increase future precision of trauma triage, we assessed how the NISS is associated with physiologic, demographic and mechanistic variables from the accident site. Using mixed-model linear regression analyses, we explored the association between NISS and pre-hospital Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score, Revised Trauma Score (RTS) categories of respiratory rate (RR) and systolic blood pressure (SBP), gender, age, subject position in the vehicle, seatbelt use, airbag deployment, and the estimated squared change in vehicle velocity on impact ((Δv)(2)). Missing values were handled with multiple imputation. We included 190 accidents with 353 dead or injured subjects (mean NISS 17, median NISS 8, IQR 1-27). For the 307 subjects in front-impact MVAs, the mean increase in NISS was -2.58 per GCS point, -2.52 per RR category level, -2.77 per SBP category level, -1.08 for male gender, 0.18 per year of age, 4.98 for driver vs. rear passengers, 4.83 for no seatbelt use, 13.52 for indeterminable seatbelt use, 5.07 for no airbag deployment, and 0.0003 per (km/h)(2) velocity change (all p<0.002). This study in victims of MVAs demonstrated that injury severity (NISS) was concurrently and independently predicted by poor pre-hospital physiologic status, increasing age and female gender, and several mechanistic measures of localised and generalised trauma energy. Our findings underscore the need for precise information from the site of trauma, to reduce undertriage, target diagnostic efforts, and anticipate need for high-level care and rehabilitative resources. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The pattern of childhood accidents in south-western Nigeria

PubMed Central

Sinnette, Calvin H.

1969-01-01

All childhood accidents treated at the University College Hospital, Ibadan, Nigeria, during a 4-year period are analysed. The pattern of childhood injuries in the part of Nigeria served by this hospital does not differ significantly from the pattern reported in studies from other parts of the world. The chain of events leading to an accident appears in large measure to be directly influenced by the mode of life in the community. This in turn is related to the prevailing level of technological development. There is an obvious need for more exhaustive studies of childhood accidents in developing countries. However, these countries need not wait for this information to become available before initiating accident-prevention programmes. PMID:5309535

Predicting the impact of chronic health conditions on workplace productivity and accidents: results from two US Department of Energy national laboratories.

PubMed

Frey, Jodi Jacobson; Osteen, Philip J; Berglund, Patricia A; Jinnett, Kimberly; Ko, Jungyai

2015-04-01

Examine associations of chronic health conditions on workplace productivity and accidents among US Department of Energy employees. The Health and Work Performance Questionnaire-Select was administered to a random sample of two Department of Energy national laboratory employees (46% response rate; N = 1854). The majority (87.4%) reported having one or more chronic health conditions, with 43.4% reporting four or more conditions. A population-attributable risk proportions analysis suggests improvements of 4.5% in absenteeism, 5.1% in presenteeism, 8.9% in productivity, and 77% of accidents by reducing the number of conditions by one level. Depression was the only health condition associated with all four outcomes. Results suggest that chronic conditions in this workforce are prevalent and costly. Efforts to prevent or reduce condition comorbidity among employees with multiple conditions can significantly reduce costs and workplace accident rates.

Heat transfer of molten metal layers in severe accidents

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wong, Seung Kai; Walton, A.; Yang, Zhilin

1997-12-01

In some scenarios of severe accidents of light water reactors, a layer of molten metal from internal structural components of the pressure vessel is predicted to occur on top of a ceramic core debris in the lower head. The layer transfers the heat generated in the ceramic pool to the side wall of the vessel, causing the latter to melt. This problem has been investigated by Theofanous et al. for the advanced light water reactor AP600 in the context of the accident management strategy of ex-vessel cooling, and the conclusion was drawn that the melting does not seriously compromise themore » integrity of the pressure vessel.« less

Single vehicle accident study

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1977-11-01

The general objectives of this study were to determine the nature and causes of single vehicle accidents, describe their resulting consequences, and develop recommendations to effect a reduction in the frequency and severity of these accidents. Analy...

Investigation of life changes as a contributing factor in aircraft accidents: a prospectus.

PubMed

Haakonson, N H

1980-09-01

The author presents a personal perspective on attempts to reduce aircraft accidents resulting from human failure in the cockpit. The premise is that accidents result from an imbalance between performance ability and performance demand. Advances in decreasing pilot-induced accidents must come from methods that will prevent the stresses that diminish performance ability. It is suggested that the investigation of life change as a contributing factor in aircraft accidents will be fruitful because of the tremendous amount of research that has already been done in this field. A review of previous work leads to three recommendations: the Recent Life Change Questionnaire (RLCQ) should be developed as a tool for management and individual aircrew; a character assurance program should be adopted; and a technique to remove accident-prone individuals should be developed.

Mental health status, aggression, and poor driving distinguish traffic offenders from non-offenders but health status predicts driving behavior in both groups

PubMed Central

Abdoli, Nasrin; Farnia, Vahid; Delavar, Ali; Dortaj, Fariborz; Esmaeili, Alireza; Farrokhi, Noorali; Karami, Majid; Shakeri, Jalal; Holsboer-Trachsler, Edith; Brand, Serge

2015-01-01

Background In Iran, traffic accidents and deaths from traffic accidents are among the highest in the world, and generally, driver behavior rather than technical failures or environmental conditions are responsible for traffic accidents. In a previous study, we showed that among young Iranian male traffic offenders, poor mental health status, along with aggression, predicted poor driving behavior. The aims of the present study were twofold, to determine whether this pattern could be replicated among non-traffic offenders, and to compare the mental health status, aggression, and driving behavior of male traffic offenders and non-offenders. Methods A total of 850 male drivers (mean age =34.25 years, standard deviation =10.44) from Kermanshah (Iran) took part in the study. Of these, 443 were offenders (52.1%) and 407 (47.9%) were non-offenders with lowest driving penalty scores applying for attaining an international driving license. Participants completed a questionnaire booklet covering socio-demographic variables, traits of aggression, health status, and driving behavior. Results Compared to non-offenders, offenders reported higher aggression, poorer mental health status, and worse driving behavior. Among non-offenders, multiple regression indicated that poor health status, but not aggression, independently predicted poor driving behavior. Conclusion Compared to non-offenders, offenders reported higher aggression, poorer health status and driving behavior. Further, the predictive power of poorer mental health status, but not aggression, for driving behavior was replicated for male non-offenders. PMID:26300646

Comparisons of Traffic Collisions between Expressways and Rural Roads in Truck Drivers.

PubMed

Lee, Sangbok; Jeong, Byung Yong

2016-03-01

Truck driving is known as one of the occupations with the highest accident rate. This study investigates the characteristics of traffic collisions according to road types (expressway and rural road). Classifying 267 accidents into expressway and rural road, we analyzed them based on driver characteristics (age, working experience, size of employment), time characteristics (day of accident, time, weather), and accident characteristics (accident causes, accident locations, accident types, driving conditions). When we compared the accidents by road conditions, no differences were found between the driver characteristics. However, from the accident characteristics, the injured person distributions were different by the road conditions. In particular, driving while drowsy is shown to be highly related with the accident characteristics. This study can be used as a guideline and a base line to develop a plan of action to prevent traffic accidents. It can also help to prepare formal regulations about a truck driver's vehicle maintenance and driving attitude for a precaution on road accidents.

Comparisons of Traffic Collisions between Expressways and Rural Roads in Truck Drivers

PubMed Central

Lee, Sangbok; Jeong, Byung Yong

2015-01-01

Background Truck driving is known as one of the occupations with the highest accident rate. This study investigates the characteristics of traffic collisions according to road types (expressway and rural road). Methods Classifying 267 accidents into expressway and rural road, we analyzed them based on driver characteristics (age, working experience, size of employment), time characteristics (day of accident, time, weather), and accident characteristics (accident causes, accident locations, accident types, driving conditions). Results When we compared the accidents by road conditions, no differences were found between the driver characteristics. However, from the accident characteristics, the injured person distributions were different by the road conditions. In particular, driving while drowsy is shown to be highly related with the accident characteristics. Conclusion This study can be used as a guideline and a base line to develop a plan of action to prevent traffic accidents. It can also help to prepare formal regulations about a truck driver's vehicle maintenance and driving attitude for a precaution on road accidents. PMID:27014489

Government regulation of occupational safety: underground coal mine accidents 1973-75.

PubMed Central

Boden, L I

1985-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to determine the influence of federal mine safety inspections on underground coal mine accidents. An economic incentives model is developed to relate federal enforcement activities to accident rates. The determinants of accident rates are analyzed for 535 coal mines during the period 1973-75. Estimates based on these data when applied to the model indicate that increasing inspections by 25 per cent would have produced a 13 per cent decline in fatal accidents and an 18 per cent decline in disabling accidents. PMID:3985237

Government regulation of occupational safety: underground coal mine accidents 1973-75.

PubMed

Boden, L I

1985-05-01

The purpose of this paper is to determine the influence of federal mine safety inspections on underground coal mine accidents. An economic incentives model is developed to relate federal enforcement activities to accident rates. The determinants of accident rates are analyzed for 535 coal mines during the period 1973-75. Estimates based on these data when applied to the model indicate that increasing inspections by 25 per cent would have produced a 13 per cent decline in fatal accidents and an 18 per cent decline in disabling accidents.

Development of a bespoke human factors taxonomy for gliding accident analysis and its revelations about highly inexperienced UK glider pilots.

PubMed

Jarvis, Steve; Harris, Don

2009-08-01

Low-hours solo glider pilots have a high risk of accidents compared to more experienced pilots. Numerous taxonomies for causal accident analysis have been produced for powered aviation but none of these is suitable for gliding, so a new taxonomy was required. A human factors taxonomy specifically for glider operations was developed and used to analyse all UK gliding accidents from 2002 to 2006 for their overall causes as well as factors specific to low hours pilots. Fifty-nine categories of pilot-related accident causation emerged, which were formed into progressively larger categories until four overall human factors groups were arrived at: 'judgement'; 'handling'; 'strategy'; 'attention'. 'Handling' accounted for a significantly higher proportion of injuries than other categories. Inexperienced pilots had considerably more accidents in all categories except 'strategy'. Approach control (path judgement, airbrake and speed handling) as well as landing flare misjudgement were chiefly responsible for the high accident rate in early solo glider pilots.

An uncertainty analysis of the hydrogen source term for a station blackout accident in Sequoyah using MELCOR 1.8.5

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gauntt, Randall O.; Bixler, Nathan E.; Wagner, Kenneth Charles

2014-03-01

A methodology for using the MELCOR code with the Latin Hypercube Sampling method was developed to estimate uncertainty in various predicted quantities such as hydrogen generation or release of fission products under severe accident conditions. In this case, the emphasis was on estimating the range of hydrogen sources in station blackout conditions in the Sequoyah Ice Condenser plant, taking into account uncertainties in the modeled physics known to affect hydrogen generation. The method uses user-specified likelihood distributions for uncertain model parameters, which may include uncertainties of a stochastic nature, to produce a collection of code calculations, or realizations, characterizing themore » range of possible outcomes. Forty MELCOR code realizations of Sequoyah were conducted that included 10 uncertain parameters, producing a range of in-vessel hydrogen quantities. The range of total hydrogen produced was approximately 583kg 131kg. Sensitivity analyses revealed expected trends with respected to the parameters of greatest importance, however, considerable scatter in results when plotted against any of the uncertain parameters was observed, with no parameter manifesting dominant effects on hydrogen generation. It is concluded that, with respect to the physics parameters investigated, in order to further reduce predicted hydrogen uncertainty, it would be necessary to reduce all physics parameter uncertainties similarly, bearing in mind that some parameters are inherently uncertain within a range. It is suspected that some residual uncertainty associated with modeling complex, coupled and synergistic phenomena, is an inherent aspect of complex systems and cannot be reduced to point value estimates. The probabilistic analyses such as the one demonstrated in this work are important to properly characterize response of complex systems such as severe accident progression in nuclear power plants.« less

Development of a Universal Safety Behavior Management System for Coal Mine Workers

PubMed Central

LI, Jizu; LI, Yuejiao; LIU, Xiaoguang

2015-01-01

Background: In China, over 80% of all work-related deaths in the mining industry occur in coal mines and human factors constitute 85% of the direct causes of coal mine accidents, which indicates that significant shortcomings currently exist in the safety behavior management of Chinese coal mine workers. We aimed to verify the impact of human psychological behavior in coal mine accidents systematically through experimental study, theoretical analysis and management application. Methods: Four test instruments (Sensory and cognitive capacity test, Sixteen-Personal Factor Questionnaire, Symptom Checklist 90 Questionnaire and the supervisors’ evaluation) were employed from November 2013 to June 2014 to identify unsafe behavior factors, the self-established Questionnaire of Safety Behavior Norms (QSBN) was also used to propose the safety behavior countermeasures of coal mine employees. Results: The mental health of most coal mine workers’ is relatively poor. The sensory and cognitive capacity of those in different work posts varies greatly, as does the sense of responsibility. Workers are susceptible to external influences, and score low in site management. When the 16-PF and SCL-90 sensory and cognitive assessments were combined, the psychological index predictive power was greatest for estimating sense of efficiency and degree of satisfaction in internal evaluations, while at the same time lowest for estimating control of introversion-extroversion and stress character. Conclusion: The psychological indicators can predict part of employee safety behavior, and assist a coal mine enterprise to recruit staff, develop occupational safety norms and improve the working environment. PMID:26258088

Preliminary calculations related to the accident at Three Mile Island

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kirchner, W.L.; Stevenson, M.G.

This report discusses preliminary studies of the Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI-2) accident based on available methods and data. The work reported includes: (1) a TRAC base case calculation out to 3 hours into the accident sequence; (2) TRAC parametric calculations, these are the same as the base case except for a single hypothetical change in the system conditions, such as assuming the high pressure injection (HPI) system operated as designed rather than as in the accident; (3) fuel rod cladding failure, cladding oxidation due to zirconium metal-steam reactions, hydrogen release due to cladding oxidation, cladding ballooning, cladding embrittlement,more » and subsequent cladding breakup estimates based on TRAC calculated cladding temperatures and system pressures. Some conclusions of this work are: the TRAC base case accident calculation agrees very well with known system conditions to nearly 3 hours into the accident; the parametric calculations indicate that, loss-of-core cooling was most influenced by the throttling of High-Pressure Injection (HPI) flows, given the accident initiating events and the pressurizer electromagnetic-operated valve (EMOV) failing to close as designed; failure of nearly all the rods and gaseous fission product gas release from the failed rods is predicted to have occurred at about 2 hours and 30 minutes; cladding oxidation (zirconium-steam reaction) up to 3 hours resulted in the production of approximately 40 kilograms of hydrogen.« less

Assessment of an explosive LPG release accident: a case study.

PubMed

Bubbico, Roberto; Marchini, Mauro

2008-07-15

In the present paper, an accident occurred during a liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) tank filling activity has been taken into consideration. During the transfer of LPG from the source road tank car to the receiving fixed storage vessel, an accidental release of LPG gave rise to different final consequences ranging from a pool fire, to a fireball and to the catastrophic rupture of the tank with successive explosion of its contents. The sequence of events has been investigated by using some of the consequence calculation models most commonly adopted in risk analysis and accident investigation. On one hand, this allows to better understand the link between the various events of the accident. On the other hand, a comparison between the results of the calculations and the damages actually observed after the accident, allows to check the accuracy of the prediction models and to critically assess their validity. In particular, it was shown that the largest uncertainty is associated with the calculation of the energy involved in the physical expansion of the fluid (both liquid and vapor) after the catastrophic rupture of the tank.

Soil vulnerability for cesium transfer.

PubMed

Vandenhove, Hildegarde; Sweeck, Lieve

2011-07-01

The recent events at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in Japan have raised questions about the accumulation of radionuclides in soils and the possible impacts on agriculture surrounding nuclear power plants. This article summarizes the knowledge gained after the nuclear power plant accident in Chernobyl, Ukraine, on how soil parameters influence soil vulnerability for radiocesium bioavailability, discusses some potential agrochemical countermeasures, and presents some predictions of radiocesium crop concentrations for areas affected by the Fukushima accident. Copyright © 2011 SETAC.

A method to relate chemical accident properties and expert judgements in order to derive useful information for the development of Environment-Accident Index.

PubMed

Scott Andersson, Asa; Tysklind, Mats; Fängmark, Ingrid

2007-08-17

The environment consists of a variety of different compartments and processes that act together in a complex system that complicate the environmental risk assessment after a chemical accident. The Environment-Accident Index (EAI) is an example of a tool based on a strategy to join the properties of a chemical with site-specific properties to facilitate this assessment and to be used in the planning process. In the development of the EAI it is necessary to make an unbiased judgement of relevant variables to include in the formula and to estimate their relative importance. The development of EAI has so far included the assimilation of chemical accidents, selection of a representative set of chemical accidents, and response values (representing effects in the environment after a chemical accident) have been developed by means of an expert panel. The developed responses were then related to the chemical and site-specific properties, through a mathematical model based on multivariate modelling (PLS), to create an improved EAI model. This resulted in EAI(new), a PLS based EAI model connected to a new classification scale. The advantages of EAI(new) compared to the old EAI (EAI(old)) is that it can be calculated without the use of tables, it can estimate the effects for all included responses and make a rough classification of chemical accidents according to the new classification scale. Finally EAI(new) is a more stable model than EAI(old), built on a valid base of accident scenarios which makes it more reliable to use for a variety of chemicals and situations as it covers a broader spectra of accident scenarios. EAI(new) can be expressed as a regression model to facilitate the calculation of the index for persons that do not have access to PLS. Future work can be; an external validation of EAI(new); to complete the formula structure; to adjust the classification scale; and to make a real life evaluation of EAI(new).

Assessing accident phobia in mild traumatic brain injury: The Accident Fear Questionnaire.

PubMed

Sutherland, Jessica; Middleton, Jason; Ornstein, Tisha J; Lawson, Kerry; Vickers, Kristin

2016-08-01

Despite a documented prevalence of accident phobia in almost 40% of motor vehicle accident (MVA) survivors, the onset of accident phobia after traumatic brain injury (TBI) remains poorly understood. There is currently a body of knowledge about posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in patients with TBI, but less is known about accident phobia following TBI, particularly in cases of mild TBI (mTBI). Accident phobia can impede safe return to driving or motor vehicle travel, inhibiting return to daily functioning. In addition, pain complaints have been found to correlate positively with postinjury anxiety disorders. The present study sought to determine the reliability and validity of the Accident Fear Questionnaire (AFQ), a measure used to assess accident phobia, in 72 patients with mTBI using secondary data analysis and the subsequent development of accident phobia postinjury. Furthermore, we sought to examine the impact of pain, anxiety, and depression complaints on the AFQ. Results reveal convergent validity and reliability in mTBI populations. Additionally, pain, anxiety, and depression measures were significantly correlated with scores on the AFQ. Psychometrically, the phobia avoidance subscale of the AFQ is a reliable measure for use with mTBI populations, although some limitations were found. In particular, the accident profile (AP) subscale was not found to be reliable or valid and could be eliminated from the AFQ. Collectively, the present study contributes to the small body of published literature evaluating accident phobia in patients with mTBI and the impact of pain on the development of postinjury anxiety disorders. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Station Blackout at Browns Ferry Unit One - accident sequence analysis. Volume 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cook, D.H.; Harrington, R.M.; Greene, S.R.

1981-11-01

This study describes the predicted response of Unit 1 at the Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant to Station Blackout, defined as a loss of offsite power combined with failure of all onsite emergency diesel-generators to start and load. Every effort has been made to employ the most realistic assumptions during the process of defining the sequence of events for this hypothetical accident. DC power is assumed to remain available from the unit batteries during the initial phase and the operator actions and corresponding events during this period are described using results provided by an analysis code developed specifically for this purpose.more » The Station Blackout is assumed to persist beyond the point of battery exhaustion and the events during this second phase of the accident in which dc power would be unavailable were determined through use of the MARCH code. Without dc power, cooling water could no longer be injected into the reactor vessel and the events of the second phase include core meltdown and subsequent containment failure. An estimate of the magnitude and timing of the concomitant release of the noble gas, cesium, and iodine-based fission products to the environment is provided in Volume 2 of this report. 58 refs., 75 figs., 8 tabs.« less

Multiscale Multiphysics Developments for Accident Tolerant Fuel Concepts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gamble, K. A.; Hales, J. D.; Yu, J.

2015-09-01

U 3Si 2 and iron-chromium-aluminum (Fe-Cr-Al) alloys are two of many proposed accident-tolerant fuel concepts for the fuel and cladding, respectively. The behavior of these materials under normal operating and accident reactor conditions is not well known. As part of the Department of Energy’s Accident Tolerant Fuel High Impact Problem program significant work has been conducted to investigate the U 3Si 2 and FeCrAl behavior under reactor conditions. This report presents the multiscale and multiphysics effort completed in fiscal year 2015. The report is split into four major categories including Density Functional Theory Developments, Molecular Dynamics Developments, Mesoscale Developments, andmore » Engineering Scale Developments. The work shown here is a compilation of a collaborative effort between Idaho National Laboratory, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Argonne National Laboratory and Anatech Corp.« less

A finite element model of a six-year-old child for simulating pedestrian accidents.

PubMed

Meng, Yunzhu; Pak, Wansoo; Guleyupoglu, Berkan; Koya, Bharath; Gayzik, F Scott; Untaroiu, Costin D

2017-01-01

Child pedestrian protection deserves more attention in vehicle safety design since they are the most vulnerable road users who face the highest mortality rate. Pediatric Finite Element (FE) models could be used to simulate and understand the pedestrian injury mechanisms during crashes in order to mitigate them. Thus, the objective of the study was to develop a computationally efficient (simplified) six-year-old (6YO-PS) pedestrian FE model and validate it based on the latest published pediatric data. The 6YO-PS FE model was developed by morphing the existing GHBMC adult pedestrian model. Retrospective scan data were used to locally adjust the geometry as needed for accuracy. Component test simulations focused only the lower extremities and pelvis, which are the first body regions impacted during pedestrian accidents. Three-point bending test simulations were performed on the femur and tibia with adult material properties and then updated using child material properties. Pelvis impact and knee bending tests were also simulated. Finally, a series of pediatric Car-to-Pedestrian Collision (CPC) were simulated with pre-impact velocities ranging from 20km/h up to 60km/h. The bone models assigned pediatric material properties showed lower stiffness and a good match in terms of fracture force to the test data (less than 6% error). The pelvis impact force predicted by the child model showed a similar trend with test data. The whole pedestrian model was stable during CPC simulations and predicted common pedestrian injuries. Overall, the 6YO-PS FE model developed in this study showed good biofidelity at component level (lower extremity and pelvis) and stability in CPC simulations. While more validations would improve it, the current model could be used to investigate the lower limb injury mechanisms and in the prediction of the impact parameters as specified in regulatory testing protocols. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

2001 South Dakota motor vehicle traffic accident summary

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2002-05-01

The South Dakota Motor Vehicle Traffic Accident Summary was developed to provide : an overview of the South Dakota traffic accident picture, as well as make frequently : requested information available. Information from 2001 comprises the major porti...

1999 South Dakota motor vehicle traffic accident summary

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-05-01

The South Dakota Motor Vehicle Traffic Accident Summary was developed to provide : an overview of the South Dakota traffic accident picture, as well as make frequently : requested information available. Information from 1999 comprises the major porti...

2000 South Dakota motor vehicle traffic accident summary

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-01-01

The South Dakota Motor Vehicle Traffic Accident Summary was developed to provide : an overview of the South Dakota traffic accident picture, as well as make frequently : requested information available. Information from 2000 comprises the major porti...

1998 South Dakota motor vehicle traffic accident summary

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-01-01

The South Dakota Motor Vehicle Traffic Accident Summary was developed to provide : an overview of the South Dakota traffic accident picture, as well as make frequently : requested information available. Information from 1998 comprises the major porti...

1997 South Dakota motor vehicle traffic accident summary

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-01-01

The South Dakota Motor Vehicle Traffic Accident Summary was developed to provide an : overview of the South Dakota traffic accident picture, as well as make frequently requested : information available. Information from 1997 comprises the major porti...

50 CFR 401.17 - Safety and accident prevention.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 7 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Safety and accident prevention. 401.17... FISHERIES CONSERVATION, DEVELOPMENT AND ENHANCEMENT § 401.17 Safety and accident prevention. In the... governing safety, health and sanitation. ...

Preliminary assessment of accident-tolerant fuels on LWR performance during normal operation and under DB and BDB accident conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ott, L. J.; Robb, K. R.; Wang, D.

2014-05-01

Following the severe accidents at the Japanese Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station in 2011, the US Department of Energy initiated research and development on the enhancement of the accident tolerance of light water reactors by the development of fuels/cladding that, in comparison with the standard UO2/Zircaloy (Zr) system, can tolerate loss of active cooling in the core for a considerably longer time period while maintaining or improving the fuel performance during normal operations. Analyses are presented that illustrate the impact of these new candidate fuel/cladding materials on the fuel performance at normal operating conditions and on the reactor system under DB and BDB accident conditions.

Scientific basis for modelling and calculation of acoustic vibrations in the nuclear power plant coolant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Proskuryakov, K. N.

2017-11-01

Created new scientific direction: “Diagnosis, prognosis and prevention of vibration - acoustic resonances in the nuclear power plant (NPP) equipment. The possibility of using methods for calculating and analyzing electric oscillation systems in the study of the properties of acoustic systems with a two-phase medium is proved, based on the similarity of the differential equations describing the state of these systems. Is shown that the developed methods can be used to predict and prevent the occurrence of vibration - acoustic resonances in the NPP equipment. Is shown that the volume of pressurizer at NPPs with VVER and PWR as well as boiling water reactor that exploded at Japan’s NPP Fukushima Daiichi is a Helmholtz resonator, which contain water and steam volumes and able many times increases the impact on them of outside periodic oscillations. Paper presents most important results published long before the severe accidents at NPPs Three Mile Island (TMI), Chernobyl and Fukushima Daiichi that could be used for the prediction of a severe accident scenario, identification of measuring data and process control in order to minimize the damage. Worked out results also could be useful in another industrial technologies based on applications of single and two-phase flows.

Development of a bespoke human factors taxonomy for gliding accident analysis and its revelations about highly inexperienced UK glider pilots.

PubMed

Jarvis, Steve; Harris, Don

2010-02-01

Low-hours solo glider pilots have a high risk of accidents compared to more experienced pilots. Numerous taxonomies for causal accident analysis have been produced for powered aviation but none of these is suitable for gliding, so a new taxonomy was required. A human factors taxonomy specifically for glider operations was developed and used to analyse all UK gliding accidents from 2002 to 2006 for their overall causes as well as factors specific to low hours pilots. Fifty-nine categories of pilot-related accident causation emerged, which were formed into progressively larger categories until four overall human factors groups were arrived at: 'judgement'; 'handling'; 'strategy'; 'attention'. 'Handling' accounted for a significantly higher proportion of injuries than other categories. Inexperienced pilots had considerably more accidents in all categories except 'strategy'. Approach control (path judgement, airbrake and speed handling) as well as landing flare misjudgement were chiefly responsible for the high accident rate in early solo glider pilots. Statement of Relevance: This paper uses extant accident data to produce a taxonomy of underlying human factors causes to analyse gliding accidents and identify the specific causes associated with low hours pilots. From this specific, well-targeted remedial measures can be identified.

A predictive model of nuclear power plant crew decision-making and performance in a dynamic simulation environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coyne, Kevin Anthony

The safe operation of complex systems such as nuclear power plants requires close coordination between the human operators and plant systems. In order to maintain an adequate level of safety following an accident or other off-normal event, the operators often are called upon to perform complex tasks during dynamic situations with incomplete information. The safety of such complex systems can be greatly improved if the conditions that could lead operators to make poor decisions and commit erroneous actions during these situations can be predicted and mitigated. The primary goal of this research project was the development and validation of a cognitive model capable of simulating nuclear plant operator decision-making during accident conditions. Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment methods can improve the prediction of human error events by providing rich contextual information and an explicit consideration of feedback arising from man-machine interactions. The Accident Dynamics Simulator paired with the Information, Decision, and Action in a Crew context cognitive model (ADS-IDAC) shows promise for predicting situational contexts that might lead to human error events, particularly knowledge driven errors of commission. ADS-IDAC generates a discrete dynamic event tree (DDET) by applying simple branching rules that reflect variations in crew responses to plant events and system status changes. Branches can be generated to simulate slow or fast procedure execution speed, skipping of procedure steps, reliance on memorized information, activation of mental beliefs, variations in control inputs, and equipment failures. Complex operator mental models of plant behavior that guide crew actions can be represented within the ADS-IDAC mental belief framework and used to identify situational contexts that may lead to human error events. This research increased the capabilities of ADS-IDAC in several key areas. The ADS-IDAC computer code was improved to support additional branching events and provide a better representation of the IDAC cognitive model. An operator decision-making engine capable of responding to dynamic changes in situational context was implemented. The IDAC human performance model was fully integrated with a detailed nuclear plant model in order to realistically simulate plant accident scenarios. Finally, the improved ADS-IDAC model was calibrated, validated, and updated using actual nuclear plant crew performance data. This research led to the following general conclusions: (1) A relatively small number of branching rules are capable of efficiently capturing a wide spectrum of crew-to-crew variabilities. (2) Compared to traditional static risk assessment methods, ADS-IDAC can provide a more realistic and integrated assessment of human error events by directly determining the effect of operator behaviors on plant thermal hydraulic parameters. (3) The ADS-IDAC approach provides an efficient framework for capturing actual operator performance data such as timing of operator actions, mental models, and decision-making activities.

Development of emergency response tools for accidental radiological contamination of French coastal areas.

PubMed

Duffa, Céline; Bailly du Bois, Pascal; Caillaud, Matthieu; Charmasson, Sabine; Couvez, Céline; Didier, Damien; Dumas, Franck; Fievet, Bruno; Morillon, Mehdi; Renaud, Philippe; Thébault, Hervé

2016-01-01

The Fukushima nuclear accident resulted in the largest ever accidental release of artificial radionuclides in coastal waters. This accident has shown the importance of marine assessment capabilities for emergency response and the need to develop tools for adequately predicting the evolution and potential impact of radioactive releases to the marine environment. The French Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety (IRSN) equips its emergency response centre with operational tools to assist experts and decision makers in the event of accidental atmospheric releases and contamination of the terrestrial environment. The on-going project aims to develop tools for the management of marine contamination events in French coastal areas. This should allow us to evaluate and anticipate post-accident conditions, including potential contamination sites, contamination levels and potential consequences. In order to achieve this goal, two complementary tools are developed: site-specific marine data sheets and a dedicated simulation tool (STERNE, Simulation du Transport et du transfert d'Eléments Radioactifs dans l'environNEment marin). Marine data sheets are used to summarize the marine environment characteristics of the various sites considered, and to identify vulnerable areas requiring implementation of population protection measures, such as aquaculture areas, beaches or industrial water intakes, as well as areas of major ecological interest. Local climatological data (dominant sea currents as a function of meteorological or tidal conditions) serving as the basis for an initial environmental sampling strategy is provided whenever possible, along with a list of possible local contacts for operational management purposes. The STERNE simulation tool is designed to predict radionuclide dispersion and contamination in seawater and marine species by incorporating spatio-temporal data. 3D hydrodynamic forecasts are used as input data. Direct discharge points or atmospheric deposition source terms can be taken into account. STERNE calculates Eulerian radionuclide dispersion using advection and diffusion equations established offline from hydrodynamic calculations. A radioecological model based on dynamic transfer equations is implemented to evaluate activity concentrations in aquatic organisms. Essential radioecological parameters (concentration factors and single or multicomponent biological half-lives) have been compiled for main radionuclides and generic marine species (fish, molluscs, crustaceans and algae). Dispersion and transfer calculations are performed simultaneously on a 3D grid. Results can be plotted on maps, with possible tracking of spatio-temporal evolution. Post-processing and visualization can then be performed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Application Law of Large Numbers That Predicts The Amount of Actual Loss in Insurance of Life

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tinungki, Georgina Maria

2018-03-01

The law of large numbers is a statistical concept that calculates the average number of events or risks in a sample or population to predict something. The larger the population is calculated, the more accurate predictions. In the field of insurance, the Law of Large Numbers is used to predict the risk of loss or claims of some participants so that the premium can be calculated appropriately. For example there is an average that of every 100 insurance participants, there is one participant who filed an accident claim, then the premium of 100 participants should be able to provide Sum Assured to at least 1 accident claim. The larger the insurance participant is calculated, the more precise the prediction of the calendar and the calculation of the premium. Life insurance, as a tool for risk spread, can only work if a life insurance company is able to bear the same risk in large numbers. Here apply what is called the law of large number. The law of large numbers states that if the amount of exposure to losses increases, then the predicted loss will be closer to the actual loss. The use of the law of large numbers allows the number of losses to be predicted better.

A virtual test system representing the distribution of pedestrian impact configurations for future vehicle front-end optimization.

PubMed

Li, Guibing; Yang, Jikuang; Simms, Ciaran

2016-07-03

The purpose of this study is to define a computationally efficient virtual test system (VTS) to assess the aggressivity of vehicle front-end designs to pedestrians considering the distribution of pedestrian impact configurations for future vehicle front-end optimization. The VTS should represent real-world impact configurations in terms of the distribution of vehicle impact speeds, pedestrian walking speeds, pedestrian gait, and pedestrian height. The distribution of injuries as a function of body region, vehicle impact speed, and pedestrian size produced using this VTS should match the distribution of injuries observed in the accident data. The VTS should have the predictive ability to distinguish the aggressivity of different vehicle front-end designs to pedestrians. The proposed VTS includes 2 parts: a simulation test sample (STS) and an injury weighting system (IWS). The STS was defined based on MADYMO multibody vehicle to pedestrian impact simulations accounting for the range of vehicle impact speeds, pedestrian heights, pedestrian gait, and walking speed to represent real world impact configurations using the Pedestrian Crash Data Study (PCDS) and anthropometric data. In total 1,300 impact configurations were accounted for in the STS. Three vehicle shapes were then tested using the STS. The IWS was developed to weight the predicted injuries in the STS using the estimated proportion of each impact configuration in the PCDS accident data. A weighted injury number (WIN) was defined as the resulting output of the VTS. The WIN is the weighted number of average Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) 2+ injuries recorded per impact simulation in the STS. Then the predictive capability of the VTS was evaluated by comparing the distributions of AIS 2+ injuries to different pedestrian body regions and heights, as well as vehicle types and impact speeds, with that from the PCDS database. Further, a parametric analysis was performed with the VTS to assess the sensitivity of the injury predictions to changes in vehicle shape (type) and stiffness to establish the potential for using the VTS for future vehicle front-end optimization. An STS of 1,300 multibody simulations and an IWS based on the distribution of impact speed, pedestrian height, gait stance, and walking speed is broadly capable of predicting the distribution of pedestrian injuries observed in the PCDS database when the same vehicle type distribution as the accident data is employed. The sensitivity study shows significant variations in the WIN when either vehicle type or stiffness is altered. Injury predictions derived from the VTS give a good representation of the distribution of injuries observed in the PCDS and distinguishing ability on the aggressivity of vehicle front-end designs to pedestrians. The VTS can be considered as an effective approach for assessing pedestrian safety performance of vehicle front-end designs at the generalized level. However, the absolute injury number is substantially underpredicted by the VTS, and this needs further development.

Statistical Models of At-Grade Intersection Accidents. Addendum.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-03-01

This report is an addendum to the work published in FHWA-RD-96-125 titled Statistical Models of At-Grade Intersection Accidents. The objective of both research studies was to develop statistical models of the relationship between traffic accide...

Research requirements to improve safety of civil helicopters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Waters, K. T.

1977-01-01

Helicopter and fixed-wing accident data were reviewed and major accident causal factors were established. The impact of accidents on insurance rates was examined and the differences in fixed-wing and helicopter accident costs discussed. The state of the art in civil helicopter safety was compared to military helicopters. Goals were established based on incorporation of known technology and achievable improvements that require development, as well as administrative-type changes such as the impact of improved operational planning, training, and human factors effects. Specific R and D recommendations are provided with an estimation of the payoffs, timing, and development costs.

Potential effects of climate change on the risk of accidents with poisonous species of the genus Tityus (Scorpiones, Buthidae) in Argentina.

PubMed

Martinez, Pablo Ariel; Andrade, Mayane Alves; Bidau, Claudio Juan

2018-06-01

The temporal pattern of co-occurrence of human beings and venomous species (scorpions, spiders, snakes) is changing. Thus, the temporal pattern of areas with risk of accidents with such species tends to become dynamic in time. We analyze the areas of occurrence of species of Tityus in Argentina and assess the impact of global climate change on their area of distribution by the construction of risk maps. Using data of occurrence of the species and climatic variables, we constructed models of species distribution (SMDs) under current and future climatic conditions. We also created maps that allow the detection of temporal shifts in the distribution patterns of each Tityus species. Finally, we developed risk maps for the analyzed species. Our results predict that climate change will have an impact on the distribution of Tityus species which will clearly expand to more southern latitudes, with the exception of T. argentinus. T. bahiensis, widely distributed in Brazil, showed a considerable increase of its potential area (ca. 37%) with future climate change. The species T. confluens and T. trivittatus that cause the highest number of accidents in Argentina are expected to show significant changes of their distributions in future scenarios. The former fact is worrying because Buenos Aires province is the more densely populated district in Argentina thus iable to become the most affected by T. trivittatus. These alterations of distributional patterns can lead to amplify the accident risk zones of venomous species, becoming an important subject of concern for public health policies. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mathematical model to predict drivers' reaction speeds.

PubMed

Long, Benjamin L; Gillespie, A Isabella; Tanaka, Martin L

2012-02-01

Mental distractions and physical impairments can increase the risk of accidents by affecting a driver's ability to control the vehicle. In this article, we developed a linear mathematical model that can be used to quantitatively predict drivers' performance over a variety of possible driving conditions. Predictions were not limited only to conditions tested, but also included linear combinations of these tests conditions. Two groups of 12 participants were evaluated using a custom drivers' reaction speed testing device to evaluate the effect of cell phone talking, texting, and a fixed knee brace on the components of drivers' reaction speed. Cognitive reaction time was found to increase by 24% for cell phone talking and 74% for texting. The fixed knee brace increased musculoskeletal reaction time by 24%. These experimental data were used to develop a mathematical model to predict reaction speed for an untested condition, talking on a cell phone with a fixed knee brace. The model was verified by comparing the predicted reaction speed to measured experimental values from an independent test. The model predicted full braking time within 3% of the measured value. Although only a few influential conditions were evaluated, we present a general approach that can be expanded to include other types of distractions, impairments, and environmental conditions.

Fukushima Daiichi Radionuclide Inventories

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cardoni, Jeffrey N.; Jankovsky, Zachary Kyle

Radionuclide inventories are generated to permit detailed analyses of the Fukushima Daiichi meltdowns. This is necessary information for severe accident calculations, dose calculations, and source term and consequence analyses. Inventories are calculated using SCALE6 and compared to values predicted by international researchers supporting the OECD/NEA's Benchmark Study on the Accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (BSAF). Both sets of inventory information are acceptable for best-estimate analyses of the Fukushima reactors. Consistent nuclear information for severe accident codes, including radionuclide class masses and core decay powers, are also derived from the SCALE6 analyses. Key nuclide activity ratios are calculated asmore » functions of burnup and nuclear data in order to explore the utility for nuclear forensics and support future decommissioning efforts.« less

Explosion/Blast Dynamics for Constellation Launch Vehicles Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baer, Mel; Crawford, Dave; Hickox, Charles; Kipp, Marlin; Hertel, Gene; Morgan, Hal; Ratzel, Arthur; Cragg, Clinton H.

2009-01-01

An assessment methodology is developed to guide quantitative predictions of adverse physical environments and the subsequent effects on the Ares-1 crew launch vehicle associated with the loss of containment of cryogenic liquid propellants from the upper stage during ascent. Development of the methodology is led by a team at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) with guidance and support from a number of National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) personnel. The methodology is based on the current Ares-1 design and feasible accident scenarios. These scenarios address containment failure from debris impact or structural response to pressure or blast loading from an external source. Once containment is breached, the envisioned assessment methodology includes predictions for the sequence of physical processes stemming from cryogenic tank failure. The investigative techniques, analysis paths, and numerical simulations that comprise the proposed methodology are summarized and appropriate simulation software is identified in this report.

Altered molecular profile in thyroid cancers from patients affected by the Three Mile Island nuclear accident.

PubMed

Goldenberg, David; Russo, Mariano; Houser, Kenneth; Crist, Henry; Derr, Jonathan B; Walter, Vonn; Warrick, Joshua I; Sheldon, Kathryn E; Broach, James; Bann, Darrin V

2017-07-01

In 1979, Three Mile Island (TMI) nuclear power plant experienced a partial meltdown with release of radioactive material. The effects of the accident on thyroid cancer (TC) in the surrounding population remain unclear. Radiation-induced TCs have a lower incidence of single nucleotide oncogenic driver mutations and higher incidence of gene fusions. We used next generation sequencing (NGS) to identify molecular signatures of radiation-induced TC in a cohort of TC patients residing near TMI during the time of the accident. Case series. We identified 44 patients who developed papillary thyroid carcinoma between 1974 and 2014. Patients who developed TC between 1984 and 1996 were at risk for radiation-induced TC, patients who developed TC before 1984 or after 1996 were the control group. We used targeted NGS of paired tumor and normal tissue from each patient to identify single nucleotide oncogenic driver mutations. Oncogenic gene fusions were identified using quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction. We identified 15 patients in the at-risk group and 29 patients in the control group. BRAF V600E mutations were identified in 53% patients in the at-risk group and 83% patients in the control group. The proportion of patients with BRAF mutations in the at-risk group was significantly lower than predicted by the The Cancer Genome Atlas cohort. Gene fusion or somatic copy number alteration drivers were identified in 33% tumors in the at-risk group and 14% of tumors in the control group. Findings were consistent with observations from other radiation-exposed populations. These data raise the possibility that radiation released from TMI may have altered the molecular profile of TC in the population surrounding TMI. 4 Laryngoscope, 127:S1-S9, 2017. © 2017 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Complaints of Poor Sleep and Risk of Traffic Accidents: A Population-Based Case-Control Study.

PubMed

Philip, Pierre; Chaufton, Cyril; Orriols, Ludivine; Lagarde, Emmanuel; Amoros, Emmanuelle; Laumon, Bernard; Akerstedt, Torbjorn; Taillard, Jacques; Sagaspe, Patricia

2014-01-01

This study aimed to determine the sleepiness-related factors associated with road traffic accidents. A population based case-control study was conducted in 2 French agglomerations. 272 road accident cases hospitalized in emergency units and 272 control drivers matched by time of day and randomly stopped by police forces were included in the study. Odds ratios were calculated for the risk of road traffic accidents. As expected, the main predictive factor for road traffic accidents was having a sleep episode at the wheel just before the accident (OR 9.97, CI 95%: 1.57-63.50, p<0.05). The increased risk of traffic accidents was 3.35 times higher in subjects who reported very poor quality sleep during the last 3 months (CI 95%: 1.30-8.63, p<0.05), 1.69 times higher in subjects reporting sleeping 6 hours or fewer per night during the last 3 months (CI 95%: 1.00-2.85, p<0.05), 2.02 times higher in subjects reporting symptoms of anxiety or nervousness in the previous day (CI 95%: 1.03-3.97, p<0.05), and 3.29 times higher in subjects reporting taking more than 2 medications in the last 24 h (CI 95%: 1.14-9.44, p<0.05). Chronic daytime sleepiness measured by the Epworth Sleepiness Scale, expressed heavy snoring and nocturnal leg movements did not explain traffic accidents. Physicians should be attentive to complaints of poor sleep quality and quantity, symptoms of anxiety-nervousness and/or drug consumption in regular car drivers.

Factors associated with automobile accidents and survival.

PubMed

Kim, Hong Sok; Kim, Hyung Jin; Son, Bongsoo

2006-09-01

This paper develops an econometric model for vehicles' inherent mortality rate and estimates the probability of accidents and survival in the United States. Logistic regression model is used to estimate probability of survival, and censored regression model is used to estimate probability of accidents. The estimation results indicated that the probability of accident and survival are influenced by the physical characteristics of the vehicles involved in the accident, and by the characteristics of the driver and the occupants. Using restrain system and riding in heavy vehicle increased the survival rate. Middle-aged drivers are less susceptible to involve in an accident, and surprisingly, female drivers are more likely to have an accident than male drivers. Riding in powerful vehicles (high horsepower) and driving late night increase the probability of accident. Overall, the driving behavior and characteristics of vehicle does matter and affects the probabilities of having a fatal accident for different types of vehicles.

Regional long-term model of radioactivity dispersion and fate in the Northwestern Pacific and adjacent seas: application to the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident.

PubMed

Maderich, V; Bezhenar, R; Heling, R; de With, G; Jung, K T; Myoung, J G; Cho, Y-K; Qiao, F; Robertson, L

2014-05-01

The compartment model POSEIDON-R was modified and applied to the Northwestern Pacific and adjacent seas to simulate the transport and fate of radioactivity in the period 1945-2010, and to perform a radiological assessment on the releases of radioactivity due to the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident for the period 2011-2040. The model predicts the dispersion of radioactivity in the water column and in sediments, the transfer of radionuclides throughout the marine food web, and subsequent doses to humans due to the consumption of marine products. A generic predictive dynamic food-chain model is used instead of the biological concentration factor (BCF) approach. The radionuclide uptake model for fish has as a central feature the accumulation of radionuclides in the target tissue. The three layer structure of the water column makes it possible to describe the vertical structure of radioactivity in deep waters. In total 175 compartments cover the Northwestern Pacific, the East China and Yellow Seas and the East/Japan Sea. The model was validated from (137)Cs data for the period 1945-2010. Calculated concentrations of (137)Cs in water, bottom sediments and marine organisms in the coastal compartment, before and after the accident, are in close agreement with measurements from the Japanese agencies. The agreement for water is achieved when an additional continuous flux of 3.6 TBq y(-1) is used for underground leakage of contaminated water from the Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP, during the three years following the accident. The dynamic food web model predicts that due to the delay of the transfer throughout the food web, the concentration of (137)Cs for piscivorous fishes returns to background level only in 2016. For the year 2011, the calculated individual dose rate for Fukushima Prefecture due to consumption of fishery products is 3.6 μSv y(-1). Following the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident the collective dose due to ingestion of marine products for Japan increased in 2011 by a factor of 6 in comparison with 2010. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

New techniques on oil spill modelling applied in the Eastern Mediterranean sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zodiatis, George; Kokinou, Eleni; Alves, Tiago; Lardner, Robin

2016-04-01

Small or large oil spills resulting from accidents on oil and gas platforms or due to the maritime traffic comprise a major environmental threat for all marine and coastal systems, and they are responsible for huge economic losses concerning the human infrastructures and the tourism. This work aims at presenting the integration of oil-spill model, bathymetric, meteorological, oceanographic, geomorphological and geological data to assess the impact of oil spills in maritime regions such as bays, as well as in the open sea, carried out in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea within the frame of NEREIDs, MEDESS-4MS and RAOP-Med EU projects. The MEDSLIK oil spill predictions are successfully combined with bathymetric analyses, the shoreline susceptibility and hazard mapping to predict the oil slick trajectories and the extend of the coastal areas affected. Based on MEDSLIK results, oil spill spreading and dispersion scenarios are produced both for non-mitigated and mitigated oil spills. MEDSLIK model considers three response combating methods of floating oil spills: a) mechanical recovery using skimmers or similar mechanisms; b) destruction by fire, c) use of dispersants or other bio-chemical means and deployment of booms. Shoreline susceptibility map can be compiled for the study areas based on the Environmental Susceptibility Index. The ESI classification considers a range of values between 1 and 9, with level 1 (ESI 1) representing areas of low susceptibility, impermeable to oil spilt during accidents, such as linear shorelines with rocky cliffs. In contrast, ESI 9 shores are highly vulnerable, and often coincide with natural reserves and special protected areas. Additionally, hazard maps of the maritime and coastal areas, possibly exposed to the danger on an oil spill, evaluate and categorize the hazard in levels from low to very high. This is important because a) Prior to an oil spill accident, hazard and shoreline susceptibility maps are made available to design preparedness and prevention plans in an effective way, b) After an oil spill accident, oil spill predictions can be combined with hazard maps to provide information on the oil spill dispersion and their impacts. This way, prevention plans can be directly modified at any time after the accident.

49 CFR 225.1 - Purpose.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... TRANSPORTATION RAILROAD ACCIDENTS/INCIDENTS: REPORTS CLASSIFICATION, AND INVESTIGATIONS § 225.1 Purpose. The... information for determining comparative trends of railroad safety and to develop hazard elimination and risk... accident/incident and injury/illness reports filed with FRA under this part, for accidents/incidents and...

TRAC-P1: an advanced best estimate computer program for PWR LOCA analysis. I. Methods, models, user information, and programming details

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1978-05-01

The Transient Reactor Analysis Code (TRAC) is being developed at the Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory (LASL) to provide an advanced ''best estimate'' predictive capability for the analysis of postulated accidents in light water reactors (LWRs). TRAC-Pl provides this analysis capability for pressurized water reactors (PWRs) and for a wide variety of thermal-hydraulic experimental facilities. It features a three-dimensional treatment of the pressure vessel and associated internals; two-phase nonequilibrium hydrodynamics models; flow-regime-dependent constitutive equation treatment; reflood tracking capability for both bottom flood and falling film quench fronts; and consistent treatment of entire accident sequences including the generation of consistent initial conditions.more » The TRAC-Pl User's Manual is composed of two separate volumes. Volume I gives a description of the thermal-hydraulic models and numerical solution methods used in the code. Detailed programming and user information is also provided. Volume II presents the results of the developmental verification calculations.« less

Phased Development of Accident Tolerant Fue

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bragg-Sitton, Shannon M.; Carmack, W. Jon

2016-09-01

The United States Department of Energy (U.S. DOE) Advanced Fuels Campaign (AFC) has adopted a three-phase approach for the development and eventual commercialization of enhanced, accident tolerant fuel (ATF) for light water reactors (LWRs). Extending from 2012 to 2016, AFC is currently coming to the end of Phase 1 research that has entailed Feasibility Assessment and Prioritization for a large number of proposed fuel systems (fuel and cladding) that could provide improved performance under accident conditions. Phase 1 activities will culminate with a prioritization of concepts for both near-term and long-term development based on the available experimental data and modelingmore » predictions. This process will provide guidance to DOE on what concepts should be prioritized for investment in Phase 2 Development/Qualification activities based on technical performance improvements and probability of meeting the aggressive schedule to insert a lead fuel rod (LFR) in a commercial power reactor by 2022. While Phase 1 activities include small-scale fabrication work, materials characterization, and limited irradiation of samples, Phase 2 will require development teams to expand to industrial fabrication methods, conduct irradiation tests under more prototypic reactor conditions (i.e. in contact with reactor primary coolant at LWR conditions and in-pile transient testing), conduct additional characterization and post-irradiation examination, and develop a fuel performance code for the candidate ATF. Phase 2 will culminate in the insertion of an LFR (or lead fuel assembly) in a commercial power reactor. The Phase 3 Commercialization work will extend past 2022. Following post-irradiation examination of LFRs, partial-core reloads will be demonstrated. The commercialization phase will further entail the establishment of commercial fabrication capabilities and the transition of LWR cores to the new fuel. The three development phases described roughly correspond to the technology readiness levels (TRL) defined for nuclear fuel development. TRL 1–3 corresponds to the “proof-of-concept” stage (Phase 1), TRL 4–6 to “proof-of-principle” (Phase 2), and TRL 7–9 to “proof-of-performance” (Phase 3). This paper will provide an overview of the anticipated activities within each phase of development and will provide an update on the current ATF development status.« less

Identification and testing of countermeasures for specific alcohol accident types and problems. Volume 4, Appendices

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1984-12-01

This report summarizes work conducted to investigate the feasibility of developing effective countermeasures directed at specific alcohol-related accidents or problems. In Phase I, literature and accident data were reviewed to determine the scope and...

Comparison of interior crashworthiness observed in passenger train accidents and 8G dynamic seat sled tests

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-04-17

The Office of Research and Development of the Federal Railroad Administration conducts engineering research to address protection of passengers and crew during train accidents. This research includes accident investigations and dynamic seat testing t...

Wet weather highway accident analysis and skid resistance data management system (volume I).

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1992-06-01

The objectives and scope of this research are to establish an effective methodology for wet weather accident analysis and to develop a database management system to facilitate information processing and storage for the accident analysis process, skid...

Identification and testing of countermeasures for specific alcohol accident types and problems. Volume 1, Executive summary

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1984-12-01

This report summarizes work conducted to investigate the feasibility of developing effective countermeasures directed at specific alcohol-related accidents or problems. In Phase I, literature and accident data were reviewed to determine the scope and...

Explorative spatial analysis of traffic accident statistics and road mortality among the provinces of Turkey.

PubMed

Erdogan, Saffet

2009-10-01

The aim of the study is to describe the inter-province differences in traffic accidents and mortality on roads of Turkey. Two different risk indicators were used to evaluate the road safety performance of the provinces in Turkey. These indicators are the ratios between the number of persons killed in road traffic accidents (1) and the number of accidents (2) (nominators) and their exposure to traffic risk (denominator). Population and the number of registered motor vehicles in the provinces were used as denominators individually. Spatial analyses were performed to the mean annual rate of deaths and to the number of fatal accidents that were calculated for the period of 2001-2006. Empirical Bayes smoothing was used to remove background noise from the raw death and accident rates because of the sparsely populated provinces and small number of accident and death rates of provinces. Global and local spatial autocorrelation analyses were performed to show whether the provinces with high rates of deaths-accidents show clustering or are located closer by chance. The spatial distribution of provinces with high rates of deaths and accidents was nonrandom and detected as clustered with significance of P<0.05 with spatial autocorrelation analyses. Regions with high concentration of fatal accidents and deaths were located in the provinces that contain the roads connecting the Istanbul, Ankara, and Antalya provinces. Accident and death rates were also modeled with some independent variables such as number of motor vehicles, length of roads, and so forth using geographically weighted regression analysis with forward step-wise elimination. The level of statistical significance was taken as P<0.05. Large differences were found between the rates of deaths and accidents according to denominators in the provinces. The geographically weighted regression analyses did significantly better predictions for both accident rates and death rates than did ordinary least regressions, as indicated by adjusted R(2) values. Geographically weighted regression provided values of 0.89-0.99 adjusted R(2) for death and accident rates, compared with 0.88-0.95, respectively, by ordinary least regressions. Geographically weighted regression has the potential to reveal local patterns in the spatial distribution of rates, which would be ignored by the ordinary least regression approach. The application of spatial analysis and modeling of accident statistics and death rates at provincial level in Turkey will help to identification of provinces with outstandingly high accident and death rates. This could help more efficient road safety management in Turkey.

Work-related accidents among the Iranian population: a time series analysis, 2000–2011

PubMed Central

Karimlou, Masoud; Imani, Mehdi; Hosseini, Agha-Fatemeh; Dehnad, Afsaneh; Vahabi, Nasim; Bakhtiyari, Mahmood

2015-01-01

Background Work-related accidents result in human suffering and economic losses and are considered as a major health problem worldwide, especially in the economically developing world. Objectives To introduce seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) models for time series analysis of work-related accident data for workers insured by the Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) between 2000 and 2011. Methods In this retrospective study, all insured people experiencing at least one work-related accident during a 10-year period were included in the analyses. We used Box–Jenkins modeling to develop a time series model of the total number of accidents. Results There was an average of 1476 accidents per month (1476·05±458·77, mean±SD). The final ARIMA (p,d,q) (P,D,Q)s model for fitting to data was: ARIMA(1,1,1)×(0,1,1)12 consisting of the first ordering of the autoregressive, moving average and seasonal moving average parameters with 20·942 mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Conclusions The final model showed that time series analysis of ARIMA models was useful for forecasting the number of work-related accidents in Iran. In addition, the forecasted number of work-related accidents for 2011 explained the stability of occurrence of these accidents in recent years, indicating a need for preventive occupational health and safety policies such as safety inspection. PMID:26119774

Work-related accidents among the Iranian population: a time series analysis, 2000-2011.

PubMed

Karimlou, Masoud; Salehi, Masoud; Imani, Mehdi; Hosseini, Agha-Fatemeh; Dehnad, Afsaneh; Vahabi, Nasim; Bakhtiyari, Mahmood

2015-01-01

Work-related accidents result in human suffering and economic losses and are considered as a major health problem worldwide, especially in the economically developing world. To introduce seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) models for time series analysis of work-related accident data for workers insured by the Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) between 2000 and 2011. In this retrospective study, all insured people experiencing at least one work-related accident during a 10-year period were included in the analyses. We used Box-Jenkins modeling to develop a time series model of the total number of accidents. There was an average of 1476 accidents per month (1476·05±458·77, mean±SD). The final ARIMA (p,d,q) (P,D,Q)s model for fitting to data was: ARIMA(1,1,1)×(0,1,1)12 consisting of the first ordering of the autoregressive, moving average and seasonal moving average parameters with 20·942 mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The final model showed that time series analysis of ARIMA models was useful for forecasting the number of work-related accidents in Iran. In addition, the forecasted number of work-related accidents for 2011 explained the stability of occurrence of these accidents in recent years, indicating a need for preventive occupational health and safety policies such as safety inspection.

Seizure detection, seizure prediction, and closed-loop warning systems in epilepsy.

PubMed

Ramgopal, Sriram; Thome-Souza, Sigride; Jackson, Michele; Kadish, Navah Ester; Sánchez Fernández, Iván; Klehm, Jacquelyn; Bosl, William; Reinsberger, Claus; Schachter, Steven; Loddenkemper, Tobias

2014-08-01

Nearly one-third of patients with epilepsy continue to have seizures despite optimal medication management. Systems employed to detect seizures may have the potential to improve outcomes in these patients by allowing more tailored therapies and might, additionally, have a role in accident and SUDEP prevention. Automated seizure detection and prediction require algorithms which employ feature computation and subsequent classification. Over the last few decades, methods have been developed to detect seizures utilizing scalp and intracranial EEG, electrocardiography, accelerometry and motion sensors, electrodermal activity, and audio/video captures. To date, it is unclear which combination of detection technologies yields the best results, and approaches may ultimately need to be individualized. This review presents an overview of seizure detection and related prediction methods and discusses their potential uses in closed-loop warning systems in epilepsy. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Protective Behaviour of Citizens to Transport Accidents Involving Hazardous Materials: A Discrete Choice Experiment Applied to Populated Areas nearby Waterways

PubMed Central

de Bekker-Grob, Esther W.; Bergstra, Arnold D.; Bliemer, Michiel C. J.; Trijssenaar-Buhre, Inge J. M.; Burdorf, Alex

2015-01-01

Background To improve the information for and preparation of citizens at risk to hazardous material transport accidents, a first important step is to determine how different characteristics of hazardous material transport accidents will influence citizens’ protective behaviour. However, quantitative studies investigating citizens’ protective behaviour in case of hazardous material transport accidents are scarce. Methods A discrete choice experiment was conducted among subjects (19–64 years) living in the direct vicinity of a large waterway. Scenarios were described by three transport accident characteristics: odour perception, smoke/vapour perception, and the proportion of people in the environment that were leaving at their own discretion. Subjects were asked to consider each scenario as realistic and to choose the alternative that was most appealing to them: staying, seeking shelter, or escaping. A panel error component model was used to quantify how different transport accident characteristics influenced subjects’ protective behaviour. Results The response was 44% (881/1,994). The predicted probability that a subject would stay ranged from 1% in case of a severe looking accident till 62% in case of a mild looking accident. All three transport accident characteristics proved to influence protective behaviour. Particularly a perception of strong ammonia or mercaptan odours and visible smoke/vapour close to citizens had the strongest positive influence on escaping. In general, ‘escaping’ was more preferred than ‘seeking shelter’, although stated preference heterogeneity among subjects for these protective behaviour options was substantial. Males were less willing to seek shelter than females, whereas elderly people were more willing to escape than younger people. Conclusion Various characteristics of transport accident involving hazardous materials influence subjects’ protective behaviour. The preference heterogeneity shows that information needs to be targeted differently depending on gender and age to prepare citizens properly. PMID:26571374

Off-road truck-related accidents in U.S. mines

PubMed Central

Dindarloo, Saeid R.; Pollard, Jonisha P.; Siami-Irdemoosa, Elnaz

2016-01-01

Introduction Off-road trucks are one of the major sources of equipment-related accidents in the U.S. mining industries. A systematic analysis of all off-road truck-related accidents, injuries, and illnesses, which are reported and published by the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA), is expected to provide practical insights for identifying the accident patterns and trends in the available raw database. Therefore, appropriate safety management measures can be administered and implemented based on these accident patterns/trends. Methods A hybrid clustering-classification methodology using K-means clustering and gene expression programming (GEP) is proposed for the analysis of severe and non-severe off-road truck-related injuries at U.S. mines. Using the GEP sub-model, a small subset of the 36 recorded attributes was found to be correlated to the severity level. Results Given the set of specified attributes, the clustering sub-model was able to cluster the accident records into 5 distinct groups. For instance, the first cluster contained accidents related to minerals processing mills and coal preparation plants (91%). More than two-thirds of the victims in this cluster had less than 5 years of job experience. This cluster was associated with the highest percentage of severe injuries (22 severe accidents, 3.4%). Almost 50% of all accidents in this cluster occurred at stone operations. Similarly, the other four clusters were characterized to highlight important patterns that can be used to determine areas of focus for safety initiatives. Conclusions The identified clusters of accidents may play a vital role in the prevention of severe injuries in mining. Further research into the cluster attributes and identified patterns will be necessary to determine how these factors can be mitigated to reduce the risk of severe injuries. Practical application Analyzing injury data using data mining techniques provides some insight into attributes that are associated with high accuracies for predicting injury severity. PMID:27620937

Off-road truck-related accidents in U.S. mines.

PubMed

Dindarloo, Saeid R; Pollard, Jonisha P; Siami-Irdemoosa, Elnaz

2016-09-01

Off-road trucks are one of the major sources of equipment-related accidents in the U.S. mining industries. A systematic analysis of all off-road truck-related accidents, injuries, and illnesses, which are reported and published by the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA), is expected to provide practical insights for identifying the accident patterns and trends in the available raw database. Therefore, appropriate safety management measures can be administered and implemented based on these accident patterns/trends. A hybrid clustering-classification methodology using K-means clustering and gene expression programming (GEP) is proposed for the analysis of severe and non-severe off-road truck-related injuries at U.S. mines. Using the GEP sub-model, a small subset of the 36 recorded attributes was found to be correlated to the severity level. Given the set of specified attributes, the clustering sub-model was able to cluster the accident records into 5 distinct groups. For instance, the first cluster contained accidents related to minerals processing mills and coal preparation plants (91%). More than two-thirds of the victims in this cluster had less than 5years of job experience. This cluster was associated with the highest percentage of severe injuries (22 severe accidents, 3.4%). Almost 50% of all accidents in this cluster occurred at stone operations. Similarly, the other four clusters were characterized to highlight important patterns that can be used to determine areas of focus for safety initiatives. The identified clusters of accidents may play a vital role in the prevention of severe injuries in mining. Further research into the cluster attributes and identified patterns will be necessary to determine how these factors can be mitigated to reduce the risk of severe injuries. Analyzing injury data using data mining techniques provides some insight into attributes that are associated with high accuracies for predicting injury severity. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

A comparative study of road traffic accidents in West Malaysia.

PubMed Central

Silva, J. F.

1978-01-01

The problem of road traffic accidents in developing countries is now becoming a cause for concern. This is more so as preventive measures have not kept pace with economic progress and development. This paper reviews the present situation in West Malaysia, one of the better developed countries of the East, during the period 1970 to 1975. A comparative study has been made between the United States and Malaysia. To enable the urgency of the problem in developing countries to be appreciated the increases in the country's population and in the number of vehicles in use and their relation to the lesser increase in road mileage over the period of study have been discussed. The study has considered every aspect of the causative factors leading to traffic accidents, such as the effects of weather, seasonal variation, and road and lighting conditions. The common human errors leading to accidents have been discussed. Other factors, such as the ethnic distribution in Malaysia, and their relation to road accidents have shown the effect of the social structure on the problems. The data evaluated in this study make it clear that preventive measures are very necessary in underdeveloped as well as in developed countries. PMID:718073

A comparative study of road traffic accidents in West Malaysia.

PubMed

Silva, J F

1978-11-01

The problem of road traffic accidents in developing countries is now becoming a cause for concern. This is more so as preventive measures have not kept pace with economic progress and development. This paper reviews the present situation in West Malaysia, one of the better developed countries of the East, during the period 1970 to 1975. A comparative study has been made between the United States and Malaysia. To enable the urgency of the problem in developing countries to be appreciated the increases in the country's population and in the number of vehicles in use and their relation to the lesser increase in road mileage over the period of study have been discussed. The study has considered every aspect of the causative factors leading to traffic accidents, such as the effects of weather, seasonal variation, and road and lighting conditions. The common human errors leading to accidents have been discussed. Other factors, such as the ethnic distribution in Malaysia, and their relation to road accidents have shown the effect of the social structure on the problems. The data evaluated in this study make it clear that preventive measures are very necessary in underdeveloped as well as in developed countries.

Intelligent Home Control System Based on ARM10

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, G. X.; Jiang, J.; Zhong, L. H.

2017-10-01

Intelligent home is becoming the hot spot of social attention in the 21st century. When it is in China, it is a really new industry. However, there is no doubt that Intelligent home will become a new economic growth point of social development; it will change the life-style of human being. To develop the intelligent home, we should keep up with the development trend of technology. This is the reason why I talk about the intelligent home control system here. In this paper, intelligent home control system is designed for alarm and remote control on gas- leaking, fire disaster, earthquake prediction, etc., by examining environmental changes around house. When the Intelligent home control system has detected an accident occurs, the processor will communicate with the GSM module, informing the house keeper the occurrence of accident. User can receive and send the message to the system to cut the power by mobile phone. The system can get access to DCCthrough ARM10 JTAG interface, using DCC to send and receive messages. At the same time, the debugger on the host is mainly used to receive the user’s command and send it to the debug component in the target system. The data that returned from the target system is received and displayed to the user in a certain format.

[Morphological verification problems of Chernobyl factor influence on the testis of coal miners of Donbas-liquidators of Chernobyl accident].

PubMed

Danylov, Iu V; Motkov, K V; Shevchenko, T I

2013-01-01

Problem of a diagnostic of Chernobyl factor influences on different organs and systems of Chernobyl accident liquidators are remain actually until now. Though morbidly background which development at unfavorable work conditions in underground coalminers prevents from objective identification features of Chernobyl factor influences. The qualitative and quantitative histological and immunohistochemical law of morphogenesis changes in testis of Donbas's coalminer - non-liquidators Chernobyl accident in comparison with the group of Donbas's coalminers-liquidators Chernobyl accident, which we were stationed non determined problem. This reason stipulates to development and practical use of mathematical model of morphogenesis of a testis changes.

[Morphological verification problems of Chernobyl factor influence on the prostate of coalminers of Donbas--liquidators of Chernobyl accident].

PubMed

Danylov, Iu V; Motkov, K V; Shevchenko, T I

2013-12-01

Problem of a diagnostic of Chernobyl factor influences on different organs and systems of Chernobyl accident liquidators are remain actually until now. Though morbidly background which development at unfavorable work conditions in underground coalminers prevents from objective identification features of Chernobyl factor influences. The qualitative and quantitative histological and immunohistochemical law of morphogenesis changes in prostate of Donbas's coalminer-non-liquidators Chernobyl accident in comparison with the group of Donbas's coalminers-liquidators Chernobyl accident which we were stationed non determined problem. This reason stipulates to development and practical use of mathematical model of morphogenesis of a prostatic gland changes.

Environmental accident and its treatment in a developing country: a case study on China.

PubMed

Hou, Yu

2012-08-01

Along with their rapid progress, developing countries have had to deal with more environmental problems, which have been a cause for concern among policy makers and the public in general. This study cites two accidents that happened in China in 2006 that caused serious environmental problems in nearby communities and discusses the problems these accidents created and the resulting disputes among the concerned people. Pollution-causing accidents not only pose threats to the health of the victims but also give rise to environmental disputes that jeopardise national security and social stability. Conflicts normally ensue following a pollution-causing accident, which are more likely to happen within a development zone or industrial park. Few environmental conflicts in the past decades were resolved through litigation. Nevertheless, there are lapses in the regulatory system, which have to be addressed to ensure that the public's rights and interests are protected. Currently, reports on pollution-causing accidents are difficult to obtain and are often released very late. A majority of industrial firms operate without environmental clearance, thus highlighting the government's inefficiency in environmental management. It is about time that the Chinese government takes seriously the use of the Environmental Impact Assessment.

ATWS at Browns Ferry Unit One - accident sequence analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harrington, R.M.; Hodge, S.A.

1984-07-01

This study describes the predicted response of Unit One at the Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant to a postulated complete failure to scram following a transient occurrence that has caused closure of all Main Steam Isolation Valves (MSIVs). This hypothetical event constitutes the most severe example of the type of accident classified as Anticipated Transient Without Scram (ATWS). Without the automatic control rod insertion provided by scram, the void coefficient of reactivity and the mechanisms by which voids are formed in the moderator/coolant play a dominant role in the progression of the accident. Actions taken by the operator greatly influence themore » quantity of voids in the coolant and the effect is analyzed in this report. The progression of the accident sequence under existing and under recommended procedures is discussed. For the extremely unlikely cases in which equipment failure and wrongful operator actions might lead to severe core damage, the sequence of emergency action levels and the associated timing of events are presented.« less

Safety of high-speed guided ground transportation systems : collision avoidance and accident survivability : volume 3 : accident survivability

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1993-03-01

This report is the third of four volumes concerned with developing safety guidelines and specifications for high-speed guided ground transportation (HSGGT) collision avoidance and accident survivability. The overall approach taken in this study is to...

Identification and testing of countermeasures for specific alcohol accident types and problems. Volume 2, General driver alcohol problem

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1984-12-01

This report summarizes work conducted to investigate the feasibility of developing effective countermeasures directed at specific alcohol-related accidents or problems. In Phase I, literature and accident data were reviewed to determine the scope and...

Wet weather highway accident analysis and skid resistance data management system (volume II : user's manual).

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1992-06-01

The objectives and scope of this research are to establish an effective methodology for wet weather accident analysis and to develop a database management system to facilitate information processing and storage for the accident analysis process, skid...

Emergency drinking water treatment during source water pollution accidents in China: origin analysis, framework and technologies.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiao-Jian; Chen, Chao; Lin, Peng-Fei; Hou, Ai-Xin; Niu, Zhang-Bin; Wang, Jun

2011-01-01

China has suffered frequent source water contamination accidents in the past decade, which has resulted in severe consequences to the water supply of millions of residents. The origins of typical cases of contamination are discussed in this paper as well as the emergency response to these accidents. In general, excessive pursuit of rapid industrialization and the unreasonable location of factories are responsible for the increasing frequency of accidental pollution events. Moreover, insufficient attention to environmental protection and rudimentary emergency response capability has exacerbated the consequences of such accidents. These environmental accidents triggered or accelerated the promulgation of stricter environmental protection policy and the shift from economic development mode to a more sustainable direction, which should be regarded as the turning point of environmental protection in China. To guarantee water security, China is trying to establish a rapid and effective emergency response framework, build up the capability of early accident detection, and develop efficient technologies to remove contaminants from water.

Fitting methods to paradigms: are ergonomics methods fit for systems thinking?

PubMed

Salmon, Paul M; Walker, Guy H; M Read, Gemma J; Goode, Natassia; Stanton, Neville A

2017-02-01

The issues being tackled within ergonomics problem spaces are shifting. Although existing paradigms appear relevant for modern day systems, it is worth questioning whether our methods are. This paper asks whether the complexities of systems thinking, a currently ubiquitous ergonomics paradigm, are outpacing the capabilities of our methodological toolkit. This is achieved through examining the contemporary ergonomics problem space and the extent to which ergonomics methods can meet the challenges posed. Specifically, five key areas within the ergonomics paradigm of systems thinking are focused on: normal performance as a cause of accidents, accident prediction, system migration, systems concepts and ergonomics in design. The methods available for pursuing each line of inquiry are discussed, along with their ability to respond to key requirements. In doing so, a series of new methodological requirements and capabilities are identified. It is argued that further methodological development is required to provide researchers and practitioners with appropriate tools to explore both contemporary and future problems. Practitioner Summary: Ergonomics methods are the cornerstone of our discipline. This paper examines whether our current methodological toolkit is fit for purpose given the changing nature of ergonomics problems. The findings provide key research and practice requirements for methodological development.

Hematological aftermath of the radiation accident in Istanbul.

PubMed

Engin, Velittin Selcuk; Tufan, Fatih; Kalayoglu Besisik, Sevgi; Engin, Gulgun; Ozturk, Mustafa; Ersoy, Suleyman

2015-01-01

The effects of radiation exposure are long-lasting. Long-term monitoring is imperative to diagnose late effects and improve our far-sightedness about possible events in the future. A radiation accident occurred in Istanbul in 1998 that resulted in mild to moderate acute radiation syndrome (ARS). In this study we aimed to investigate the changes in hematological parameters at the long-term follow-up of ARS patients. Ten adults were hospitalized after exposure to a 60Co source. Seven were diagnosed as having ARS and had severe and symptomatic pancytopenia. All of the exposed people recovered following intensive treatment. Treatment was supportive with transfusion, granulocyte-colony stimulating factor, and anti- infective management covering antifungal agents. Patients were closely monitored. Nine years after the accident, the initial and follow-up complete blood count examinations and peripheral blood smears (PBS) were comparatively evaluated by an experienced hematologist. The hematological laboratory values of the patients on admission, after treatment, and nine years after the accident were documented and compared. Biodosimetric analysis revealed that whole-body doses ranged from 1-1.9 Gy. All subjects have shown complete recovery of the hematological laboratory values after treatment. All but one of the subjects showed complete blood cell recovery. The improvement of the blood cell count of the excepted patient stalled at a mildly reduced level and his bone marrow was still hypocellular nine years after the accident; however, no malignant changes were detected. Values at admission were significantly different compared with post treatment and present values of all patients. Post treatment and follow-up values were similar. One of the patients died of lung cancer. None of the patients developed hematological malignancy. In this study, the recovery from ARS was complete after treatment. The small population, short follow-up period, and the relatively small doses resulted in no long-term adverse effects, as would be predicted.

Clinical data from one year follow-up of victims of the radiation accident with 60Co in Bulgaria.

PubMed

Djounova, J; Guleva, I; Negoicheva, K; Mileva, I; Panova, D; Rupova, I

2014-09-01

A severe radiation accident occurred on 14 June 2011 in an industrial irradiation facility for medical equipment sterilization in Bulgaria. Five people were exposed for 5-10 min to a 60Co source containing 137 TBq. The Emergency Department of the National Centre of Radiobiology and Radiation Protection (NCRRP), Bulgaria, put into practice the plans for providing medical care in radiation accidents and the procedures developed for assessment of injury severity, the decision-making algorithm regarding subsequent treatment, and the therapy for persons affected. The activities performed for initial assessment of the severity of injury of irradiated patients were published in 2012. Based on predictive assessments of the severity of radiation damage, it was decided that the victims required hospitalization at a specialized hematology clinic. Percy Hospital in Paris was chosen for this purpose. The aim of this report is to present the results of 1-y follow-up for three of the victims. Sadly, 1 mo after the accident, Patient 4 died from a heart attack. The medical opinion was that this was not a direct outcome of the irradiation. Patient 5 was only followed up for 4 mo (118 d) because medical follow-up is voluntary, and despite repeated calls, the patient did not respond. Medical examinations by a physician as well as hematology and biochemical tests were performed using standard laboratory methods. The obtained results were compared to the victims' personal reference limits obtained from annual health monitoring. After the accident, the recovery to normal content of peripheral blood cells was observed in all victims. Nevertheless, there were observed cases of thrombocytopenia, granulocytopenia, and leucocytopenia at various times after exposure. During the period of observation, morphological changes in red blood cells such as anisomicrocitosis, macrocytes, megalocytes, and polychromatic erythrocytes were demonstrated. During the 1-y observation period, all victims showed immediate hematopoietic recovery within 2 mo after irradiation. Slight hypocellularity of bone marrow was noted at the end of the year.

A Police and Insurance Joint Management System Based on High Precision BDS/GPS Positioning

PubMed Central

Zuo, Wenwei; Guo, Chi; Liu, Jingnan; Peng, Xuan; Yang, Min

2018-01-01

Car ownership in China reached 194 million vehicles at the end of 2016. The traffic congestion index (TCI) exceeds 2.0 during rush hour in some cities. Inefficient processing for minor traffic accidents is considered to be one of the leading causes for road traffic jams. Meanwhile, the process after an accident is quite troublesome. The main reason is that it is almost always impossible to get the complete chain of evidence when the accident happens. Accordingly, a police and insurance joint management system is developed which is based on high precision BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS)/Global Positioning System (GPS) positioning to process traffic accidents. First of all, an intelligent vehicle rearview mirror terminal is developed. The terminal applies a commonly used consumer electronic device with single frequency navigation. Based on the high precision BDS/GPS positioning algorithm, its accuracy can reach sub-meter level in the urban areas. More specifically, a kernel driver is built to realize the high precision positioning algorithm in an Android HAL layer. Thus the third-party application developers can call the general location Application Programming Interface (API) of the original standard Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) to get high precision positioning results. Therefore, the terminal can provide lane level positioning service for car users. Next, a remote traffic accident processing platform is built to provide big data analysis and management. According to the big data analysis of information collected by BDS high precision intelligent sense service, vehicle behaviors can be obtained. The platform can also automatically match and screen the data that uploads after an accident to achieve accurate reproduction of the scene. Thus, it helps traffic police and insurance personnel to complete remote responsibility identification and survey for the accident. Thirdly, a rapid processing flow is established in this article to meet the requirements to quickly handle traffic accidents. The traffic police can remotely identify accident responsibility and the insurance personnel can remotely survey an accident. Moreover, the police and insurance joint management system has been carried out in Wuhan, Central China’s Hubei Province, and Wuxi, Eastern China’s Jiangsu Province. In a word, a system is developed to obtain and analyze multisource data including precise positioning and visual information, and a solution is proposed for efficient processing of traffic accidents. PMID:29320406

A Police and Insurance Joint Management System Based on High Precision BDS/GPS Positioning.

PubMed

Zuo, Wenwei; Guo, Chi; Liu, Jingnan; Peng, Xuan; Yang, Min

2018-01-10

Car ownership in China reached 194 million vehicles at the end of 2016. The traffic congestion index (TCI) exceeds 2.0 during rush hour in some cities. Inefficient processing for minor traffic accidents is considered to be one of the leading causes for road traffic jams. Meanwhile, the process after an accident is quite troublesome. The main reason is that it is almost always impossible to get the complete chain of evidence when the accident happens. Accordingly, a police and insurance joint management system is developed which is based on high precision BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS)/Global Positioning System (GPS) positioning to process traffic accidents. First of all, an intelligent vehicle rearview mirror terminal is developed. The terminal applies a commonly used consumer electronic device with single frequency navigation. Based on the high precision BDS/GPS positioning algorithm, its accuracy can reach sub-meter level in the urban areas. More specifically, a kernel driver is built to realize the high precision positioning algorithm in an Android HAL layer. Thus the third-party application developers can call the general location Application Programming Interface (API) of the original standard Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) to get high precision positioning results. Therefore, the terminal can provide lane level positioning service for car users. Next, a remote traffic accident processing platform is built to provide big data analysis and management. According to the big data analysis of information collected by BDS high precision intelligent sense service, vehicle behaviors can be obtained. The platform can also automatically match and screen the data that uploads after an accident to achieve accurate reproduction of the scene. Thus, it helps traffic police and insurance personnel to complete remote responsibility identification and survey for the accident. Thirdly, a rapid processing flow is established in this article to meet the requirements to quickly handle traffic accidents. The traffic police can remotely identify accident responsibility and the insurance personnel can remotely survey an accident. Moreover, the police and insurance joint management system has been carried out in Wuhan, Central China's Hubei Province, and Wuxi, Eastern China's Jiangsu Province. In a word, a system is developed to obtain and analyze multisource data including precise positioning and visual information, and a solution is proposed for efficient processing of traffic accidents.

90Sr specific activity of teeth of abandoned cattle after the Fukushima accident - teeth as an indicator of environmental pollution.

PubMed

Koarai, Kazuma; Kino, Yasushi; Takahashi, Atsushi; Suzuki, Toshihiko; Shimizu, Yoshinaka; Chiba, Mirei; Osaka, Ken; Sasaki, Keiichi; Urushihara, Yusuke; Fukuda, Tomokazu; Isogai, Emiko; Yamashiro, Hideaki; Oka, Toshitaka; Sekine, Tsutomu; Fukumoto, Manabu; Shinoda, Hisashi

2018-03-01

90 Sr specific activity in the teeth of young cattle that were abandoned in Kawauchi village and Okuma town located in the former evacuation areas of the Fukushima-Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP) accident were measured. Additionally, specific activity in contaminated surface soils sampled from the same area was measured. (1) All cattle teeth examined were contaminated with 90 Sr. The specific activity, however, varied depending on the developmental stage of the teeth during the FNPP accident; teeth that had started development before the accident exhibited comparatively lower values, while teeth developed mainly after the accident showed higher values. (2) Values of 90 Sr-specific activity in teeth formed after the FNPP accident were higher than those of the bulk soil but similar to those in the exchangeable fraction (water and CH 3 COONH 4 soluble fractions) of the soil. The findings suggest that 90 Sr was incorporated into the teeth during the process of development, and that 90 Sr in the soluble and/or leachable fractions of the soil might migrate into teeth and contribute to the amount of 90 Sr in the teeth. Thus, the concentration of 90 Sr in teeth formed after the FNPP accident might reflect the extent of 90 Sr pollution in the environment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Overview of the NASA Systems Approach to Crashworthiness Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Lisa E.

2002-01-01

The NASA Aviation Safety Program was developed in response to the federal government's goal to reduce the fatal accident rate for aviation by 80% within 10 years. Accident Mitigation is a primary element of the Aviation Safety Program. The overall Accident Mitigation goal is to provide technology to the air transport industry to enable a decrease in the rate of fatalities and injury from crash loads and from in-flight and post-crash explosion and/or fire. Accident Mitigation is divided into two main elements - Fire Prevention and Systems Approach to Crashworthiness. The Systems Approach to Crashworthiness goal is to develop and promote technology that will increase the human survival rate or reduce the fatality rate in survivable accidents. The technical background and planning, selected technical activities, and summary of future efforts will be presented in this paper.

Traffic accidents on expressways: new threat to China.

PubMed

Zhao, Jinbao; Deng, Wei

2012-01-01

As China is building one of the largest expressway systems in the world, expressway safety problems have become serious concerns to China. This article analyzed the trends in expressway accidents in China from 1995 to 2010 and examined the characteristics of these accidents. Expressway accident data were obtained from the Annual Report for Road Traffic Accidents published by the Ministry of Public Security of China. Expressway mileage data were obtained from the National Statistics Yearbook published by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. Descriptive statistical analyses were conducted based on these data. Expressway deaths increased by 10.2-fold from 616 persons in 1995 to 6300 persons in 2010, and the average annual increase was 17.9 percent over the past 15 years, and the overall other road traffic deaths was -0.33 percent. China's expressway mileage accounted for only 1.85 percent of highway mileage driven in 2010, but expressway deaths made up 13.54 percent of highway traffic deaths. The average annual accident lethality rate [accident deaths/(accident deaths + accident injuries)] for China's expressways was 27.76 percent during the period 1995 to 2010, which was 1.33 times higher than the accident lethality rate of highway traffic accidents. China's government should pay attention to expressway construction and safety interventions during the rapid development period of expressways. Related causes, such as geographic patterns, speeding, weather conditions, and traffic flow composition, need to be studied in the near future. An effective and scientific expressway safety management services system, composed of a speed monitoring system, warning system, and emergency rescue system, should be established in developed and underdeveloped provinces in China to improve safety on expressway.

NASA Medical Response to Human Spacecraft Accidents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patlach, Robert

2010-01-01

Manned space flight is risky business. Accidents have occurred and may occur in the future. NASA's manned space flight programs, with all their successes, have had three fatal accidents, one at the launch pad and two in flight. The Apollo fire and the Challenger and Columbia accidents resulted in a loss of seventeen crewmembers. Russia's manned space flight programs have had three fatal accidents, one ground-based and two in flight. These accidents resulted in the loss of five crewmembers. Additionally, manned spacecraft have encountered numerous close calls with potential for disaster. The NASA Johnson Space Center Flight Safety Office has documented more than 70 spacecraft incidents, many of which could have become serious accidents. At the Johnson Space Center (JSC), medical contingency personnel are assigned to a Mishap Investigation Team. The team deploys to the accident site to gather and preserve evidence for the Accident Investigation Board. The JSC Medical Operations Branch has developed a flight surgeon accident response training class to capture the lessons learned from the Columbia accident. This presentation will address the NASA Mishap Investigation Team's medical objectives, planned response, and potential issues that could arise subsequent to a manned spacecraft accident. Educational Objectives are to understand the medical objectives and issues confronting the Mishap Investigation Team medical personnel subsequent to a human space flight accident.

50 CFR 401.17 - Safety and accident prevention.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 9 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Safety and accident prevention. 401.17 Section 401.17 Wildlife and Fisheries JOINT REGULATIONS (UNITED STATES FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE... FISHERIES CONSERVATION, DEVELOPMENT AND ENHANCEMENT § 401.17 Safety and accident prevention. In the...

Relationship between Recent Flight Experience and Pilot Error General Aviation Accidents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nilsson, Sarah J.

Aviation insurance agents and fixed-base operation (FBO) owners use recent flight experience, as implied by the 90-day rule, to measure pilot proficiency in physical airplane skills, and to assess the likelihood of a pilot error accident. The generally accepted premise is that more experience in a recent timeframe predicts less of a propensity for an accident, all other factors excluded. Some of these aviation industry stakeholders measure pilot proficiency solely by using time flown within the past 90, 60, or even 30 days, not accounting for extensive research showing aeronautical decision-making and situational awareness training decrease the likelihood of a pilot error accident. In an effort to reduce the pilot error accident rate, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has seen the need to shift pilot training emphasis from proficiency in physical airplane skills to aeronautical decision-making and situational awareness skills. However, current pilot training standards still focus more on the former than on the latter. The relationship between pilot error accidents and recent flight experience implied by the FAA's 90-day rule has not been rigorously assessed using empirical data. The intent of this research was to relate recent flight experience, in terms of time flown in the past 90 days, to pilot error accidents. A quantitative ex post facto approach, focusing on private pilots of single-engine general aviation (GA) fixed-wing aircraft, was used to analyze National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) accident investigation archival data. The data were analyzed using t-tests and binary logistic regression. T-tests between the mean number of hours of recent flight experience of tricycle gear pilots involved in pilot error accidents (TPE) and non-pilot error accidents (TNPE), t(202) = -.200, p = .842, and conventional gear pilots involved in pilot error accidents (CPE) and non-pilot error accidents (CNPE), t(111) = -.271, p = .787, indicate there is no statistically significant relationship between groups. Binary logistic regression indicate that recent flight experience does not reliably distinguish between pilot error and non-pilot error accidents for TPE/TNPE, chi2 = 0.040 (df=1, p = .841) and CPE/CNPE, chi2= 0.074 (df =1, p = .786). Future research could focus on different pilot populations, and to broaden the scope, analyze several years of data.

A methodology for the transfer of probabilities between accident severity categories

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Whitlow, J. D.; Neuhauser, K. S.

A methodology has been developed which allows the accident probabilities associated with one accident-severity category scheme to be transferred to another severity category scheme. The methodology requires that the schemes use a common set of parameters to define the categories. The transfer of accident probabilities is based on the relationships between probability of occurrence and each of the parameters used to define the categories. Because of the lack of historical data describing accident environments in engineering terms, these relationships may be difficult to obtain directly for some parameters. Numerical models or experienced judgement are often needed to obtain the relationships.more » These relationships, even if they are not exact, allow the accident probability associated with any severity category to be distributed within that category in a manner consistent with accident experience, which in turn will allow the accident probability to be appropriately transferred to a different category scheme.« less

Reactor Safety Gap Evaluation of Accident Tolerant Components and Severe Accident Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Farmer, Mitchell T.; Bunt, R.; Corradini, M.

The overall objective of this study was to conduct a technology gap evaluation on accident tolerant components and severe accident analysis methodologies with the goal of identifying any data and/or knowledge gaps that may exist, given the current state of light water reactor (LWR) severe accident research, and additionally augmented by insights obtained from the Fukushima accident. The ultimate benefit of this activity is that the results can be used to refine the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Reactor Safety Technology (RST) research and development (R&D) program plan to address key knowledge gaps in severe accident phenomena and analyses that affectmore » reactor safety and that are not currently being addressed by the industry or the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC).« less

Key Parameters for Operator Diagnosis of BWR Plant Condition during a Severe Accident

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clayton, Dwight A.; Poore, III, Willis P.

2015-01-01

The objective of this research is to examine the key information needed from nuclear power plant instrumentation to guide severe accident management and mitigation for boiling water reactor (BWR) designs (specifically, a BWR/4-Mark I), estimate environmental conditions that the instrumentation will experience during a severe accident, and identify potential gaps in existing instrumentation that may require further research and development. This report notes the key parameters that instrumentation needs to measure to help operators respond to severe accidents. A follow-up report will assess severe accident environmental conditions as estimated by severe accident simulation model analysis for a specific US BWR/4-Markmore » I plant for those instrumentation systems considered most important for accident management purposes.« less

Quantitative modelling in cognitive ergonomics: predicting signals passed at danger.

PubMed

Moray, Neville; Groeger, John; Stanton, Neville

2017-02-01

This paper shows how to combine field observations, experimental data and mathematical modelling to produce quantitative explanations and predictions of complex events in human-machine interaction. As an example, we consider a major railway accident. In 1999, a commuter train passed a red signal near Ladbroke Grove, UK, into the path of an express. We use the Public Inquiry Report, 'black box' data, and accident and engineering reports to construct a case history of the accident. We show how to combine field data with mathematical modelling to estimate the probability that the driver observed and identified the state of the signals, and checked their status. Our methodology can explain the SPAD ('Signal Passed At Danger'), generate recommendations about signal design and placement and provide quantitative guidance for the design of safer railway systems' speed limits and the location of signals. Practitioner Summary: Detailed ergonomic analysis of railway signals and rail infrastructure reveals problems of signal identification at this location. A record of driver eye movements measures attention, from which a quantitative model for out signal placement and permitted speeds can be derived. The paper is an example of how to combine field data, basic research and mathematical modelling to solve ergonomic design problems.

Complaints of Poor Sleep and Risk of Traffic Accidents: A Population-Based Case-Control Study

PubMed Central

Philip, Pierre; Chaufton, Cyril; Orriols, Ludivine; Lagarde, Emmanuel; Amoros, Emmanuelle; Laumon, Bernard; Akerstedt, Torbjorn; Taillard, Jacques; Sagaspe, Patricia

2014-01-01

Introduction This study aimed to determine the sleepiness-related factors associated with road traffic accidents. Methods A population based case-control study was conducted in 2 French agglomerations. 272 road accident cases hospitalized in emergency units and 272 control drivers matched by time of day and randomly stopped by police forces were included in the study. Odds ratios were calculated for the risk of road traffic accidents. Results As expected, the main predictive factor for road traffic accidents was having a sleep episode at the wheel just before the accident (OR 9.97, CI 95%: 1.57–63.50, p<0.05). The increased risk of traffic accidents was 3.35 times higher in subjects who reported very poor quality sleep during the last 3 months (CI 95%: 1.30–8.63, p<0.05), 1.69 times higher in subjects reporting sleeping 6 hours or fewer per night during the last 3 months (CI 95%: 1.00–2.85, p<0.05), 2.02 times higher in subjects reporting symptoms of anxiety or nervousness in the previous day (CI 95%: 1.03–3.97, p<0.05), and 3.29 times higher in subjects reporting taking more than 2 medications in the last 24 h (CI 95%: 1.14–9.44, p<0.05). Chronic daytime sleepiness measured by the Epworth Sleepiness Scale, expressed heavy snoring and nocturnal leg movements did not explain traffic accidents. Conclusion Physicians should be attentive to complaints of poor sleep quality and quantity, symptoms of anxiety-nervousness and/or drug consumption in regular car drivers. PMID:25494198

Comparison of the RTS and ISS scores on prediction of survival chances in multiple trauma patients.

PubMed

Akhavan Akbari, G; Mohammadian, A

2012-01-01

Trauma represents the third cause of death after cardio vascular disease and tumors. Also in Iran, road accidents are one of the leading causes of death. Rapid evaluation of trauma severity and prediction of prognosis and mortality rate and probability of survival and rapid treatment of patients is necessary. One of the useful instruments for this is ISS and RTS scoring systems. This study evaluated 70 multi trauma patients in Fatemi trauma center affiliated to Ardabil University of medical science. This study was prospective study populations were 70 trauma patients admitted in Fatemi trauma center. During the II month, and patients data was collected by clinical evaluating of patients and follow up them and arranged as a questionnaire then related findings were evaluated by SPSS software. The average age of patients was 37.6±23.5 years and minimum and maximum age was 1 and 85 years. The most common involved group was 10-19 years (13 men and 1 woman). 81.4% of patients (57 cases were male) and 18.6% were female (13 cases). The most common causes of trauma was car accident with 64.2% frequency (43 cases) and then motorcycle accident with 16.4% frequency (11 cases) and all injured patient due to motorcycle accident compose the age group less than 40 years old. Also car accident had the highest frequency in both gender. Other causes of trauma were fall down with 13.5% frequency (9 cases) and under debris 5.9% (4 cases). Also from 70 studied patients, 67 cases (95.7%) had blunt trauma and 3 cases (4.3%) had penetrating trauma. The most penetrating trauma occurs in ages less than 50 years and was in the range of 30-50 years. The average RTS and ISS was 10.67±1.45 and 18.11±8.64, high and low scores of ISS existed in all age groups but a low score of RTS was highest in the children age group. The average length of ICU stay was 12.14±11.11 days. Overall mortality was 15.7 (11 cases). In this study, by the ISS increasing, the mortality rate also increased. But there is no relation between the mortality rate and RTS ratio. The ISS scoring system performed better than the RTS in predicting of mortality and probability of survival and the length of ICU stay and had high accuracy and can predict patients' outcome better by ISS measuring.

Utilization of accident databases and fuzzy sets to estimate frequency of HazMat transport accidents.

PubMed

Qiao, Yuanhua; Keren, Nir; Mannan, M Sam

2009-08-15

Risk assessment and management of transportation of hazardous materials (HazMat) require the estimation of accident frequency. This paper presents a methodology to estimate hazardous materials transportation accident frequency by utilizing publicly available databases and expert knowledge. The estimation process addresses route-dependent and route-independent variables. Negative binomial regression is applied to an analysis of the Department of Public Safety (DPS) accident database to derive basic accident frequency as a function of route-dependent variables, while the effects of route-independent variables are modeled by fuzzy logic. The integrated methodology provides the basis for an overall transportation risk analysis, which can be used later to develop a decision support system.

Modeling secondary accidents identified by traffic shock waves.

PubMed

Junhua, Wang; Boya, Liu; Lanfang, Zhang; Ragland, David R

2016-02-01

The high potential for occurrence and the negative consequences of secondary accidents make them an issue of great concern affecting freeway safety. Using accident records from a three-year period together with California interstate freeway loop data, a dynamic method for more accurate classification based on the traffic shock wave detecting method was used to identify secondary accidents. Spatio-temporal gaps between the primary and secondary accident were proven be fit via a mixture of Weibull and normal distribution. A logistic regression model was developed to investigate major factors contributing to secondary accident occurrence. Traffic shock wave speed and volume at the occurrence of a primary accident were explicitly considered in the model, as a secondary accident is defined as an accident that occurs within the spatio-temporal impact scope of the primary accident. Results show that the shock waves originating in the wake of a primary accident have a more significant impact on the likelihood of a secondary accident occurrence than the effects of traffic volume. Primary accidents with long durations can significantly increase the possibility of secondary accidents. Unsafe speed and weather are other factors contributing to secondary crash occurrence. It is strongly suggested that when police or rescue personnel arrive at the scene of an accident, they should not suddenly block, decrease, or unblock the traffic flow, but instead endeavor to control traffic in a smooth and controlled manner. Also it is important to reduce accident processing time to reduce the risk of secondary accident. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Preliminary Investigation of Time Remaining Display on the Computer-based Emergency Operating Procedure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suryono, T. J.; Gofuku, A.

2018-02-01

One of the important thing in the mitigation of accidents in nuclear power plant accidents is time management. The accidents should be resolved as soon as possible in order to prevent the core melting and the release of radioactive material to the environment. In this case, operators should follow the emergency operating procedure related with the accident, in step by step order and in allowable time. Nowadays, the advanced main control rooms are equipped with computer-based procedures (CBPs) which is make it easier for operators to do their tasks of monitoring and controlling the reactor. However, most of the CBPs do not include the time remaining display feature which informs operators of time available for them to execute procedure steps and warns them if the they reach the time limit. Furthermore, the feature will increase the awareness of operators about their current situation in the procedure. This paper investigates this issue. The simplified of emergency operating procedure (EOP) of steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) accident of PWR plant is applied. In addition, the sequence of actions on each step of the procedure is modelled using multilevel flow modelling (MFM) and influenced propagation rule. The prediction of action time on each step is acquired based on similar case accidents and the Support Vector Regression. The derived time will be processed and then displayed on a CBP user interface.

Perception of risk and the attribution of responsibility for accidents.

PubMed

Rickard, Laura N

2014-03-01

Accidents, one often hears, "happen"; we accept, and even expect, that they will be part of daily life. But in situations in which injury or death result, judgments of responsibility become critical. How might our perceptions of risk influence the ways in which we allocate responsibility for an accident? Drawing from attribution and risk perception theory, this study investigates how perceived controllability and desirability of risk, in addition to perceived danger and recreational risk-taking, relate to attributions of responsibility for the cause of unintentional injury in a unique setting: U.S. national parks. Three parks, Mount Rainier, Olympic, and Delaware Water Gap, provide the setting for this survey-based study, which considers how park visitors (N = 447) attribute responsibility for the cause of a hypothetical visitor accident. Results suggest that respondents tended to make more internal (i.e., related to characteristics of the victim), rather than external (i.e., related to characteristics of the park, or park management) attributions. As respondents viewed park-related risk as controllable, they were more likely to attribute the cause of the accident to the victim. Moreover, among other significant variables, having experienced a similar accident predicted lower internal causal attribution. Opportunities for future research linking risk perception and attribution variables, as well as practical implications for the management of public outdoor settings, are presented. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Emergency Preparedness technology support to the Health and Safety Executive (HSE), Nuclear Installations Inspectorate (NII) of the United Kingdom. Appendix A

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

O`Kula, K.R.

1994-03-01

The Nuclear Installations Inspectorate (NII) of the United Kingdom (UK) suggested the use of an accident progression logic model method developed by Westinghouse Savannah River Company (WSRC) and Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) for K Reactor to predict the magnitude and timing of radioactivity releases (the source term) based on an advanced logic model methodology. Predicted releases are output from the personal computer-based model in a level-of-confidence format. Additional technical discussions eventually led to a request from the NII to develop a proposal for assembling a similar technology to predict source terms for the UK`s advanced gas-cooled reactor (AGR) type.more » To respond to this request, WSRC is submitting a proposal to provide contractual assistance as specified in the Scope of Work. The work will produce, document, and transfer technology associated with a Decision-Oriented Source Term Estimator for Emergency Preparedness (DOSE-EP) for the NII to apply to AGRs in the United Kingdom. This document, Appendix A is a part of this proposal.« less

The potential of clustering methods to define intersection test scenarios: Assessing real-life performance of AEB.

PubMed

Sander, Ulrich; Lubbe, Nils

2018-04-01

Intersection accidents are frequent and harmful. The accident types 'straight crossing path' (SCP), 'left turn across path - oncoming direction' (LTAP/OD), and 'left-turn across path - lateral direction' (LTAP/LD) represent around 95% of all intersection accidents and one-third of all police-reported car-to-car accidents in Germany. The European New Car Assessment Program (Euro NCAP) have announced that intersection scenarios will be included in their rating from 2020; however, how these scenarios are to be tested has not been defined. This study investigates whether clustering methods can be used to identify a small number of test scenarios sufficiently representative of the accident dataset to evaluate Intersection Automated Emergency Braking (AEB). Data from the German In-Depth Accident Study (GIDAS) and the GIDAS-based Pre-Crash Matrix (PCM) from 1999 to 2016, containing 784 SCP and 453 LTAP/OD accidents, were analyzed with principal component methods to identify variables that account for the relevant total variances of the sample. Three different methods for data clustering were applied to each of the accident types, two similarity-based approaches, namely Hierarchical Clustering (HC) and Partitioning Around Medoids (PAM), and the probability-based Latent Class Clustering (LCC). The optimum number of clusters was derived for HC and PAM with the silhouette method. The PAM algorithm was both initiated with random start medoid selection and medoids from HC. For LCC, the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) was used to determine the optimal number of clusters. Test scenarios were defined from optimal cluster medoids weighted by their real-life representation in GIDAS. The set of variables for clustering was further varied to investigate the influence of variable type and character. We quantified how accurately each cluster variation represents real-life AEB performance using pre-crash simulations with PCM data and a generic algorithm for AEB intervention. The usage of different sets of clustering variables resulted in substantially different numbers of clusters. The stability of the resulting clusters increased with prioritization of categorical over continuous variables. For each different set of cluster variables, a strong in-cluster variance of avoided versus non-avoided accidents for the specified Intersection AEB was present. The medoids did not predict the most common Intersection AEB behavior in each cluster. Despite thorough analysis using various cluster methods and variable sets, it was impossible to reduce the diversity of intersection accidents into a set of test scenarios without compromising the ability to predict real-life performance of Intersection AEB. Although this does not imply that other methods cannot succeed, it was observed that small changes in the definition of a scenario resulted in a different avoidance outcome. Therefore, we suggest using limited physical testing to validate more extensive virtual simulations to evaluate vehicle safety. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Interview protocols and ergonomics checklist for analysing overexertion back accidents among nursing personnel.

PubMed

Engkvist, I L; Hagberg, M; Wigaeus-Hjelm, E; Menckel, E; Ekenvall, L

1995-06-01

No documented strategy, including preventive strategies, for systematic investigation of overexertion back accidents among nursing personnel has yet been published. One aim of the present study was to develop standardized instruments for the systematic investigation of back accidents among nursing personnel in order to develop preventive strategies. Another aim was to produce a screening tool that could easily be used for identifying potential overexertion back accident hazards. Two structured interview protocols were developed, one for the injured person and one for the supervisor. An ergonomics checklist was designed for the most important spaces according to accident statistics: patient's room, corridor, toilet, and also one for 'other space', eg X-ray and treatment rooms. The instruments were developed by frequent discussions and adjustments in a task force of researchers and occupational health personnel. The protocols were tested in two steps before a final version was established. The construct validity and interobserver reliability of the checklist were tested by ten ergonomists, who checked a patient's room, a toilet and a corridor with some known hazards. The constructed validity agreement was 90% in 19 of 26 items in the checklist. The interobserver reliability had the same figures as the validity for all items in the checklist. The interview protocols and checklist appear to be suitable for systematic investigation of overexertion back accidents.

'Fatalism', accident causation and prevention: issues for health promotion from an exploratory study in a Yoruba town, Nigeria.

PubMed

Dixey, R A

1999-04-01

As countries experience the 'epidemiological transition' with a relative decline in infectious diseases, accident rates tend to increase, particularly road traffic accidents. The health promotion interventions intended to prevent or minimize the consequences of accidents have been developed in predominantly Western, industrialized countries. Although some of these solutions have been applied with success to less developed countries, there are also good reasons why such solutions are ineffective when tried in a different context. Health promotion as developed in the West has a particular ideological bias, being framed within a secular, individualist and rationalist culture. Different cosmologies exist outside this culture, often described as 'fatalist' by Western commentators and as obstructing change. Changing these cosmologies or worldviews may not fit with the ethic of paying due respect to the cultural traditions of the 'target group'. Health promotion is therefore faced with a dilemma. In addition to different worldviews, the different levels of development also mean that solutions formulated in richer countries do not suit poorer countries. This paper uses a small exploratory study in a Yoruba town in Nigeria to examine these points. Interviews with key informants were held in March 1994 in Igbo-Ora and data were extracted from hospital records. Levels of accidents from available records are noted and people's ideas about accident prevention are discussed. Recommendations as to the way forward are then proposed.

Understanding transit accidents using the National Transit Database and the role of Transit Intelligent Vehicle Initiative Technology in reducing accidents

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2004-06-01

This report documents the results of bus accident data analysis using the 2002 National Transit Database (NTD) and discusses the potential of using advanced technology being studied and developed under the U.S. Department of Transportations (U.S. ...

Accident Avoidance Skill Training and Performance Testing. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hatterick, G. Richard; Barthurst, James R.

A two-phased study was conducted to determine the feasibility of training drivers to acquire skills needed to avoid critical conflict motor vehicle accidents, and to develop the procedures and materials necessary for such training. Basic data were derived from indepth accident investigations and task analyses of driver behavior. Principal…

Computational modeling of driver speed control with its applications in developing intelligent transportation system to prevent speeding-related accidents.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-08-01

Speeding is the leading contributing factor in fatal accidents in NY state, according to NY State Department of Motor : Vehicle Accidents Statistical Summary (2009). Understanding and modeling speeding and speed control is one of major : challenges i...

Development of South Dakota accident reduction factors

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-08-01

This report offers the methodology and findings of the first project to develop Accident Reduction Factors (ARFs) and Severity Reduction Ratios (SRRs) for the state of South Dakota. The ARFs and SRRs of this project focused on Hazard Elimination and ...

[A spatially explicit analysis of traffic accidents involving pedestrians and cyclists in Berlin].

PubMed

Lakes, Tobia

2017-12-01

In many German cities and counties, sustainable mobility concepts that strengthen pedestrian and cyclist traffic are promoted. From the perspectives of urban development, traffic planning and public healthcare, a spatially differentiated analysis of traffic accident data is decisive. 1) The identification of spatial and temporal patterns of the distribution of accidents involving cyclists and pedestrians, 2) the identification of hotspots and exploration of possible underlying causes and 3) the critical discussion of benefits and challenges of the results and the derivation of conclusions. Spatio-temporal distributions of data from accident statistics in Berlin involving pedestrians and cyclists from 2011 to 2015 were analysed with geographic information systems (GIS). While the total number of accidents remains relatively stable for pedestrian and cyclist accidents, the spatial distribution analysis shows, however, that there are significant spatial clusters (hotspots) of traffic accidents with a strong concentration in the inner city area. In a critical discussion, the benefits of geographic concepts are identified, such as spatially explicit health data (in this case traffic accident data), the importance of the integration of other data sources for the evaluation of the health impact of areas (traffic accident statistics of the police), and the possibilities and limitations of spatial-temporal data analysis (spatial point-density analyses) for the derivation of decision-supported recommendations and for the evaluation of policy measures of health prevention and of health-relevant urban development.

[Sports accidents: 1963-1973 statistics].

PubMed

Fasler, S

1976-01-01

Every year, the Swiss Accident Insurance Administration is paying a considerable amount of money for sports accidents. From 1963 to 1973 the number of these accidents has increased more markedly than other types of accidents. Different tendencies can be observed in the different types of sports: skiing accidents have, after a long period of retrogression until 1973, shown a noticeable augmentation again. Football accidents and accidents in other types of sports have on the other hand increased year by year. Mountaineering and aquatic sports often result in fatal accidents. The numerous preventive measures in skiing accidents have obviously been successful. Not only the fractures have decreased, but also the average number of days where sickness benefit was paid. Next to the traffic accidents, the skiing accidents are the most expensive ones. The nature of the healing cost in sports accidents has changed during the period from 1967 to 1972, depending on the different types of sports. In particular, hospital costs have changed considerably. The number of medical consultations per accident has decreased. Payment of sickness benefit has followed the development of the salaries on the one hand and the modifications of the number of lost days on the other. Finally, the costs of the annuities show more or less the same tendency as the ones for sickness benefit. A very gross estimation on the economical losses through sports accidents in Switzerland makes us believe that the direct and indirect costs actually amount to more than one thousand millions of Swiss Francs per year.

Machine-related injuries in the US mining industry and priorities for safety research.

PubMed

Ruff, Todd; Coleman, Patrick; Martini, Laura

2011-03-01

Researchers at the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health studied mining accidents that involved a worker entangled in, struck by, or in contact with machinery or equipment in motion. The motivation for this study came from the large number of severe accidents, i.e. accidents resulting in a fatality or permanent disability, that are occurring despite available interventions. Accident descriptions were taken from an accident database maintained by the United States Department of Labor, Mine Safety and Health Administration, and 562 accidents that occurred during 2000-2007 fit the search criteria. Machine-related accidents accounted for 41% of all severe accidents in the mining industry during this period. Machinery most often involved in these accidents included conveyors, rock bolting machines, milling machines and haulage equipment such as trucks and loaders. The most common activities associated with these accidents were operation of the machine and maintenance and repair. The current methods to safeguard workers near machinery include mechanical guarding around moving components, lockout/tagout of machine power during maintenance and backup alarms for mobile equipment. To decrease accidents further, researchers recommend additional efforts in the development of new control technologies, training materials and dissemination of information on best practices.

Quality evaluation of official accident reports conducted by Labour Authorities in Andalusia (Spain).

PubMed

Salguero-Caparros, Francisco; Suarez-Cebador, Manuel; Carrillo-Castrillo, Jesús A; Rubio-Romero, Juan Carlos

2018-01-01

A public accident investigation is carried out when the consequences of the incident are significant or the accident has occurred in unusual circumstances. We evaluated the quality of the official accident investigations being conducted by Safety Specialists of the Labour Authorities in Andalusia. To achieve this objective, we analysed 98 occupational accident investigations conducted by the Labour Authorities in Andalusia in the last quarter of 2014. Various phases in the accident investigation process were examined, such as the use of the Eurostat variables within European Statistics on Accidents at Work (ESAW), detection of causes, determination of preventive measures, cost analysis of the accidents, identification of noncompliance with legal requirements or the investigation method used. The results of this study show that 77% of the official occupational accident investigation reports analysed were conducted in accordance with all the quality criteria recommended in the literature. To enhance glogal learning, and optimize allocation of resources, we propose the development of a harmonized European model for the public investigation of occupational accidents. Further it would be advisable to create a common classification and coding system for the causes of accidents for all European Union Member States.

Multi-Robot Interfaces and Operator Situational Awareness: Study of the Impact of Immersion and Prediction

PubMed Central

Peña-Tapia, Elena; Martín-Barrio, Andrés; Olivares-Méndez, Miguel A.

2017-01-01

Multi-robot missions are a challenge for operators in terms of workload and situational awareness. These operators have to receive data from the robots, extract information, understand the situation properly, make decisions, generate the adequate commands, and send them to the robots. The consequences of excessive workload and lack of awareness can vary from inefficiencies to accidents. This work focuses on the study of future operator interfaces of multi-robot systems, taking into account relevant issues such as multimodal interactions, immersive devices, predictive capabilities and adaptive displays. Specifically, four interfaces have been designed and developed: a conventional, a predictive conventional, a virtual reality and a predictive virtual reality interface. The four interfaces have been validated by the performance of twenty-four operators that supervised eight multi-robot missions of fire surveillance and extinguishing. The results of the workload and situational awareness tests show that virtual reality improves the situational awareness without increasing the workload of operators, whereas the effects of predictive components are not significant and depend on their implementation. PMID:28749407

Determination of influence factors and accident rates for the Armored Tractor/Safe Secure Trailer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Phillips, J.S.; Clauss, D.B.; Blower, D.F.

1994-04-01

Operating environments, such as road type, road location, and time of day, play an important role in the observed accident rates of heavy trucks used in general commerce. These same factors influence the accident rate of the Armored Tractor/Safe Secure Trailer (AT/SST) used by the Department of Energy to transport hazardous cargos within the continental United States. This report discusses the development of accident rate influence factors. These factors, based on heavy trucks used in general commerce, are used to modify the observed overall AT/SST accident rate to account for the different operating environments.

[The medical organizational aspects of decreasing of preventable mortality in the case of traffic accident in municipal district].

PubMed

Voloshina, L V; Plutnitskiĭ, A N

2010-01-01

The article deals with the results of the study of such actual issue as decreasing of preventable mortality in the case of traffic accident in municipal district. The analysis was based on the mortality statistical data and the expertise of causes of lethal outcomes of traffic accidents. The results are used to develop the measures of improving the organization and quality of medical care of victims of road accident on the pre-hospital and hospital stages on the level of municipal health care to decrease the human losses caused by traffic accident.

Joint release rate estimation and measurement-by-measurement model correction for atmospheric radionuclide emission in nuclear accidents: An application to wind tunnel experiments.

PubMed

Li, Xinpeng; Li, Hong; Liu, Yun; Xiong, Wei; Fang, Sheng

2018-03-05

The release rate of atmospheric radionuclide emissions is a critical factor in the emergency response to nuclear accidents. However, there are unavoidable biases in radionuclide transport models, leading to inaccurate estimates. In this study, a method that simultaneously corrects these biases and estimates the release rate is developed. Our approach provides a more complete measurement-by-measurement correction of the biases with a coefficient matrix that considers both deterministic and stochastic deviations. This matrix and the release rate are jointly solved by the alternating minimization algorithm. The proposed method is generic because it does not rely on specific features of transport models or scenarios. It is validated against wind tunnel experiments that simulate accidental releases in a heterogonous and densely built nuclear power plant site. The sensitivities to the position, number, and quality of measurements and extendibility of the method are also investigated. The results demonstrate that this method effectively corrects the model biases, and therefore outperforms Tikhonov's method in both release rate estimation and model prediction. The proposed approach is robust to uncertainties and extendible with various center estimators, thus providing a flexible framework for robust source inversion in real accidents, even if large uncertainties exist in multiple factors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Epidemiology of occupational accidents in iran based on social security organization database.

PubMed

Mehrdad, Ramin; Seifmanesh, Shahdokht; Chavoshi, Farzaneh; Aminian, Omid; Izadi, Nazanin

2014-01-01

Today, occupational accidents are one of the most important problems in industrial world. Due to lack of appropriate system for registration and reporting, there is no accurate statistics of occupational accidents all over the world especially in developing countries. The aim of this study is epidemiological assessment of occupational accidents in Iran. Information of available occupational accidents in Social Security Organization was extracted from accident reporting and registration forms. In this cross-sectional study, gender, age, economic activity, type of accident and injured body part in 22158 registered accidents during 2008 were described. The occupational accidents rate was 253 in 100,000 workers in 2008. 98.2% of injured workers were men. The mean age of injured workers was 32.07 ± 9.12 years. The highest percentage belonged to age group of 25-34 years old. In our study, most of the accidents occurred in basic metals industry, electrical and non-electrical machines and construction industry. Falling down from height and crush injury were the most prevalent accidents. Upper and lower extremities were the most common injured body parts. Due to the high rate of accidents in metal and construction industries, engineering controls, the use of appropriate protective equipment and safety worker training seems necessary.

Epidemiology of Occupational Accidents in Iran Based on Social Security Organization Database

PubMed Central

Mehrdad, Ramin; Seifmanesh, Shahdokht; Chavoshi, Farzaneh; Aminian, Omid; Izadi, Nazanin

2014-01-01

Background: Background: Today, occupational accidents are one of the most important problems in industrial world. Due to lack of appropriate system for registration and reporting, there is no accurate statistics of occupational accidents all over the world especially in developing countries. Objectives: The aim of this study is epidemiological assessment of occupational accidents in Iran. Materials and Methods: Information of available occupational accidents in Social Security Organization was extracted from accident reporting and registration forms. In this cross-sectional study, gender, age, economic activity, type of accident and injured body part in 22158 registered accidents during 2008 were described. Results: The occupational accidents rate was 253 in 100,000 workers in 2008. 98.2% of injured workers were men. The mean age of injured workers was 32.07 ± 9.12 years. The highest percentage belonged to age group of 25-34 years old. In our study, most of the accidents occurred in basic metals industry, electrical and non-electrical machines and construction industry. Falling down from height and crush injury were the most prevalent accidents. Upper and lower extremities were the most common injured body parts. Conclusion: Due to the high rate of accidents in metal and construction industries, engineering controls, the use of appropriate protective equipment and safety worker training seems necessary. PMID:24719699

Investigation of air cleaning system response to accident conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Andrae, R.W.; Bolstad, J.W.; Foster, R.D.

1980-01-01

Air cleaning system response to the stress of accident conditions are being investigated. A program overview and hghlight recent results of our investigation are presented. The program includes both analytical and experimental investigations. Computer codes for predicting effects of tornados, explosions, fires, and material transport are described. The test facilities used to obtain supportive experimental data to define structural integrity and confinement effectiveness of ventilation system components are described. Examples of experimental results for code verification, blower response to tornado transients, and filter response to tornado and explosion transients are reported.

[No-fault medical accidents: review of two years' activity of the regional commission for the compensation of medical accidents of the Provence-Alpes-Côtes d'Azur region (PACA)].

PubMed

Piercecchi-Marti, M-D; Sastre, B; Zuck, S; François, A; Genety, C; Bartoli, C; Leonetti, G

2008-01-01

Compensation for victims of medical accidents identified as no-fault medical accidents (NFMA) will be financed by national solidarity: this is a major and innovative feature of the Law of March 4, 2002 relative to Patients' Rights. In this review, we analyse the decisions of the regional commission on compensation of medical accidents in the Provence-Alpes-Côtes d'Azur (PACA) region of France in 2004 and 2005, and we attempt to identify the prevalence of certain surgical procedures liable to result in NFMA and to define the concept of "unintended consequences" in the context of state of health of the patient and the predictable course of the malady. We hope to improve the medical information given to the patient and thereby the overall quality of management. NFMA was acknowledged in 57 claims, about 10% of all those received by the commission during this period. Nearly half of the claims were within the competence of the commission because of the existence of serious sequelae (Permanent Partial Disability) in 47%. No typical profile of age or gender emerged in the patients with NFMA. The majority of cases occurred after surgical procedures, in particular gastrointestinal surgery and orthopaedic surgery; 91% were planned procedures. We did not identify increased risk related to any given type of surgery, particular disease condition, or precise anatomic region. Complications were those usually observed such as neurological complications in vascular surgery or perforations in gastrointestinal surgery. The interpretation of NFMA has undergone an evolution during this two-year period. In 2004, previous poor health status precluded acknowledgment of a medical accident, the argument being that there was a predisposition to the complication which occurred. In 2005, compensation was based on a reduced Partial Permanent Disability score compared to the patient's previous health status. This became a means of measuring the impact of the medical complication on an already predictably unfavorable clinical course without medical intervention, and the legal aspect of the "ineluctable nature" of this course.

Accident tolerant fuel cladding development: Promise, status, and challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terrani, Kurt A.

2018-04-01

The motivation for transitioning away from zirconium-based fuel cladding in light water reactors to significantly more oxidation-resistant materials, thereby enhancing safety margins during severe accidents, is laid out. A review of the development status for three accident tolerant fuel cladding technologies, namely coated zirconium-based cladding, ferritic alumina-forming alloy cladding, and silicon carbide fiber-reinforced silicon carbide matrix composite cladding, is offered. Technical challenges and data gaps for each of these cladding technologies are highlighted. Full development towards commercial deployment of these technologies is identified as a high priority for the nuclear industry.

Accident Proneness in Children and Adolescents Affected by ADHD and the Impact of Medication.

PubMed

Lange, Hannah; Buse, Judith; Bender, Stephan; Siegert, Joachim; Knopf, Hildtraud; Roessner, Veit

2016-06-01

This study aims to ascertain once and for all whether children and adolescents affected by ADHD show a higher risk for accidents, as well as investigating a possible association between the administration of ADHD-specific medication and the occurrence of accidents. Two exceptionally large sets of data were implemented in this analysis. Participants included children and adolescents representative of the entire German population. Data for Survey 1 was collected through extensive administration of questionnaires. Data for Survey 2 stemmed from the records of a leading German health insurance company. In terms of statistical analysis, chi-square tests as well as logistic regression analyses were applied and odds ratios (ORs) were determined. Innovative results are presented showing a significantly higher likelihood for ADHD-affected youngsters to be involved in accidents compared with their nonaffected counterparts (Survey 1: OR = 1.60; Survey 2: OR = 1.89) but lacking an overall significant influence of medication regarding the occurrence of accidents (Survey 1: OR = 1.28; Survey 2: OR = 0.97). Frequency of accidents could be predicted by ADHD, gender, and age in both samples. Medication intake served as a weak predictor only in Survey 2. It has been determined in two representative and independent German samples that youngsters with ADHD are at a significantly higher risk of being involved in accidents. In the future, this should always be considered when setting up a treatment plan to ensure a safer and healthier coming of age without relying solely on specific effects of medication. (J. of Att. Dis. 2016; 20(6) 501-509). © The Author(s) 2014.

A Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) Examination of Commercial Vessel Accidents

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-01

Naval Operations before the Congress on FY2013 Department of Navy posture. Heinrich , H . W. (1941). Industrial accident prevention : A scientific...Theory The core of the Domino Theory, developed by Herbert W. Heinrich who studied industrial safety in the early 1900s, is that accidents are a result...chain of events resulting in an accident . Heinrich likened the dominos to unsafe conditions or unsafe acts, where their subsequent removal prevents a

A synthetic method for atmospheric diffusion simulation and environmental impact assessment of accidental pollution in the chemical industry in a WEBGIS context.

PubMed

Ni, Haochen; Rui, Yikang; Wang, Jiechen; Cheng, Liang

2014-09-05

The chemical industry poses a potential security risk to factory personnel and neighboring residents. In order to mitigate prospective damage, a synthetic method must be developed for an emergency response. With the development of environmental numeric simulation models, model integration methods, and modern information technology, many Decision Support Systems (DSSs) have been established. However, existing systems still have limitations, in terms of synthetic simulation and network interoperation. In order to resolve these limitations, the matured simulation model for chemical accidents was integrated into the WEB Geographic Information System (WEBGIS) platform. The complete workflow of the emergency response, including raw data (meteorology information, and accident information) management, numeric simulation of different kinds of accidents, environmental impact assessments, and representation of the simulation results were achieved. This allowed comprehensive and real-time simulation of acute accidents in the chemical industry. The main contribution of this paper is that an organizational mechanism of the model set, based on the accident type and pollutant substance; a scheduling mechanism for the parallel processing of multi-accident-type, multi-accident-substance, and multi-simulation-model; and finally a presentation method for scalar and vector data on the web browser on the integration of a WEB Geographic Information System (WEBGIS) platform. The outcomes demonstrated that this method could provide effective support for deciding emergency responses of acute chemical accidents.

A Synthetic Method for Atmospheric Diffusion Simulation and Environmental Impact Assessment of Accidental Pollution in the Chemical Industry in a WEBGIS Context

PubMed Central

Ni, Haochen; Rui, Yikang; Wang, Jiechen; Cheng, Liang

2014-01-01

The chemical industry poses a potential security risk to factory personnel and neighboring residents. In order to mitigate prospective damage, a synthetic method must be developed for an emergency response. With the development of environmental numeric simulation models, model integration methods, and modern information technology, many Decision Support Systems (DSSs) have been established. However, existing systems still have limitations, in terms of synthetic simulation and network interoperation. In order to resolve these limitations, the matured simulation model for chemical accidents was integrated into the WEB Geographic Information System (WEBGIS) platform. The complete workflow of the emergency response, including raw data (meteorology information, and accident information) management, numeric simulation of different kinds of accidents, environmental impact assessments, and representation of the simulation results were achieved. This allowed comprehensive and real-time simulation of acute accidents in the chemical industry. The main contribution of this paper is that an organizational mechanism of the model set, based on the accident type and pollutant substance; a scheduling mechanism for the parallel processing of multi-accident-type, multi-accident-substance, and multi-simulation-model; and finally a presentation method for scalar and vector data on the web browser on the integration of a WEB Geographic Information System (WEBGIS) platform. The outcomes demonstrated that this method could provide effective support for deciding emergency responses of acute chemical accidents. PMID:25198686

Risk Assessment at the Cosmetic Product Manufacturer by Expert Judgment Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vtorushina, A. N.; Larionova, E. V.; Mezenceva, I. L.; Nikonova, E. D.

2017-05-01

A case study was performed in a cosmetic product manufacturer. We have identified the main risk factors of occupational accidents and their causes. Risk of accidents is assessed by the expert judgment method. Event tree for the most probable accident is built and recommendations on improvement of occupational health and safety protection system at the cosmetic product manufacturer are developed. The results of this paper can be used to develop actions to improve the occupational safety and health system in the chemical industry.

Atmospheric transport of radioactive debris to Norway in case of a hypothetical accident related to the recovery of the Russian submarine K-27.

PubMed

Bartnicki, Jerzy; Amundsen, Ingar; Brown, Justin; Hosseini, Ali; Hov, Øystein; Haakenstad, Hilde; Klein, Heiko; Lind, Ole Christian; Salbu, Brit; Szacinski Wendel, Cato C; Ytre-Eide, Martin Album

2016-01-01

The Russian nuclear submarine K-27 suffered a loss of coolant accident in 1968 and with nuclear fuel in both reactors it was scuttled in 1981 in the outer part of Stepovogo Bay located on the eastern coast of Novaya Zemlya. The inventory of spent nuclear fuel on board the submarine is of concern because it represents a potential source of radioactive contamination of the Kara Sea and a criticality accident with potential for long-range atmospheric transport of radioactive particles cannot be ruled out. To address these concerns and to provide a better basis for evaluating possible radiological impacts of potential releases in case a salvage operation is initiated, we assessed the atmospheric transport of radionuclides and deposition in Norway from a hypothetical criticality accident on board the K-27. To achieve this, a long term (33 years) meteorological database has been prepared and used for selection of the worst case meteorological scenarios for each of three selected locations of the potential accident. Next, the dispersion model SNAP was run with the source term for the worst-case accident scenario and selected meteorological scenarios. The results showed predictions to be very sensitive to the estimation of the source term for the worst-case accident and especially to the sizes and densities of released radioactive particles. The results indicated that a large area of Norway could be affected, but that the deposition in Northern Norway would be considerably higher than in other areas of the country. The simulations showed that deposition from the worst-case scenario of a hypothetical K-27 accident would be at least two orders of magnitude lower than the deposition observed in Norway following the Chernobyl accident. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Typical pedestrian accident scenarios for the development of autonomous emergency braking test protocols.

PubMed

Lenard, James; Badea-Romero, Alexandro; Danton, Russell

2014-12-01

An increasing proportion of new vehicles are being fitted with autonomous emergency braking systems. It is difficult for consumers to judge the effectiveness of these safety systems for individual models unless their performance is evaluated through track testing under controlled conditions. This paper aimed to contribute to the development of relevant test conditions by describing typical circumstances of pedestrian accidents. Cluster analysis was applied to two large British databases and both highlighted an urban scenario in daylight and fine weather where a small pedestrian walks across the road, especially from the near kerb, in clear view of a driver who is travelling straight ahead. For each dataset a main test configuration was defined to represent the conditions of the most common accident scenario along with test variations to reflect the characteristics of less common accident scenarios. Some of the variations pertaining to less common accident circumstances or to a minority of casualties in these scenarios were proposed as optional or supplementary test elements for an outstanding performance rating. Many considerations are incorporated into the final design and implementation of an actual testing regime, such as cost and the state of development of technology; only the representation of accident data lay within the scope of this paper. It would be desirable to ascertain the wider representativeness of the results by analysing accident data from other countries in a similar manner. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kastenberg, W.E.; Apostolakis, G.; Dhir, V.K.

Severe accident management can be defined as the use of existing and/or altemative resources, systems and actors to prevent or mitigate a core-melt accident. For each accident sequence and each combination of severe accident management strategies, there may be several options available to the operator, and each involves phenomenological and operational considerations regarding uncertainty. Operational uncertainties include operator, system and instrumentation behavior during an accident. A framework based on decision trees and influence diagrams has been developed which incorporates such criteria as feasibility, effectiveness, and adverse effects, for evaluating potential severe accident management strategies. The framework is also capable ofmore » propagating both data and model uncertainty. It is applied to several potential strategies including PWR cavity flooding, BWR drywell flooding, PWR depressurization and PWR feed and bleed.« less

Archetypes for Organisational Safety

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marais, Karen; Leveson, Nancy G.

2003-01-01

We propose a framework using system dynamics to model the dynamic behavior of organizations in accident analysis. Most current accident analysis techniques are event-based and do not adequately capture the dynamic complexity and non-linear interactions that characterize accidents in complex systems. In this paper we propose a set of system safety archetypes that model common safety culture flaws in organizations, i.e., the dynamic behaviour of organizations that often leads to accidents. As accident analysis and investigation tools, the archetypes can be used to develop dynamic models that describe the systemic and organizational factors contributing to the accident. The archetypes help clarify why safety-related decisions do not always result in the desired behavior, and how independent decisions in different parts of the organization can combine to impact safety.

Risk factors affecting the severity of traffic accidents at Shanghai river-crossing tunnel.

PubMed

Lu, Jian John; Xing, Yingying; Wang, Chen; Cai, Xiaonan

2016-01-01

With increasing traffic volume and urban development, increasing numbers of underground tunnels have been constructed to relieve conflict between strained land and heavy traffic. However, as more long tunnels are constructed, tunnel traffic safety is becoming increasingly serious. Thus, it is necessary to acquire their implications and impacts. This study examined 4,539 traffic accidents that have occurred in 14 Shanghai river-crossing tunnels for the period 2011-2012 and analyze the correlation between potential factors and accident injury severity. An ordered logit model was developed to examine the correlation between potential factors and accident injury severity. Results show that increased injury severity is associated with male drivers, drivers aged 65 years or older, accident time from midnight to dawn, weekends, wet road surface, goods vehicles, 3 or more vehicles, 4 or more lanes, middle speed limits (50-79 km/h), zone 3, extra-long tunnels (over 3,000 m), and maximum longitudinal gradient. This article aims to provide useful information for engineers to develop interventions and countermeasures to improve tunnel safety in China.

Developing an aviation exposure index to inform risk-based fire management decisions

Treesearch

Crystal S. Stonesifer; David E. Calkin; Matthew P. Thompson; Jeffrey D. Kaiden

2014-01-01

Wildland firefighting is an inherently dangerous activity, and aviation-related accidents in particular comprise a large share of firefighter fatalities. Due to limited understanding of operational factors that lead to aviation accidents, it is unclear how local decisionmakers, responsible for requesting aviation support, can mitigate the risk of an aviation accident...

'Remixing Rasmussen': The evolution of Accimaps within systemic accident analysis.

PubMed

Waterson, Patrick; Jenkins, Daniel P; Salmon, Paul M; Underwood, Peter

2017-03-01

Throughout Jens Rasmussen's career there has been a continued emphasis on the development of methods, techniques and tools for accident analysis and investigation. In this paper we focus on the evolution and development of one specific example, namely Accimaps and their use for accident analysis. We describe the origins of Accimaps followed by a review of 27 studies which have applied and adapted Accimaps over the period 2000-2015 to a range of domains and types of accident. Aside from demonstrating the versatility and popularity of the method, part of the motivation for the review of the use of Accimaps is to address the question of what constitutes a sound, usable, valid and reliable approach to systemic accident analysis. The findings from the review demonstrate continuity with the work carried out by Rasmussen, as well as significant variation (e.g., changes to the Accimap, used of additional theoretical and practice-oriented perspectives on safety). We conclude the paper with some speculations regarding future extension and adaptation of the Accimap approach including the possibility of using hybrid models for accident analysis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The influence of the infrastructure characteristics in urban road accidents occurrence.

PubMed

Vieira Gomes, Sandra

2013-11-01

This paper summarizes the result of a study regarding the creation of tools that can be used in intervention methods in the planning and management of urban road networks in Portugal. The first tool relates the creation of a geocoded database of road accidents occurred in Lisbon between 2004 and 2007, which allowed the definition of digital maps, with the possibility of a wide range of consultations and crossing of information. The second tool concerns the development of models to estimate the frequency of accidents on urban networks, according to different desegregations: road element (intersections and segments); type of accident (accidents with and without pedestrians); and inclusion of explanatory variables related to the road environment. Several methods were used to assess the goodness of fit of the developed models, allowing more robust conclusions. This work aims to contribute to the scientific knowledge of accidents phenomenon in Portugal, with detailed and accurate information on the factors affecting its occurrence. This allows to explicitly include safety aspects in planning and road management tasks. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Best practices to reduce the accident rate hotel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García Revilla, M. R.; Kahale Carrillo, D. T.

2014-10-01

Examining the available databases and existing tourism organizations can conclude that appear studies on accidents and their relationship with other variables. But in our case we want to assess this relationship in the performance of the hotel in relation to lower the accident rate. The Industrial Safety studies analyzing this accident causes (why they happen), their sources (committed activities), their agents (participants work means), its type (how the events occur or develop), all in order to develop prevention. In our case, as accidents happen because people commit wrongful acts or because the equipment, tools, machinery or workplaces are not in proper conditions, the preventive point of view we analyze through the incidence of workplace accidents hotel subsector. The crash occurs because there is a risk, so that adequate control of it would avoid despite individual factors. Absenteeism or absence from work was taken into account first by Dubois in 1977, as he realized the time lost in the nineteenth century due to the long working hours, which included the holidays. Motivation and job satisfaction were the elements that have been most important in the phenomenon of social psychology.

Paralysis from sport and diving accidents.

PubMed

Schmitt, H; Gerner, H J

2001-01-01

To examine the causes of sport-related spinal cord injuries that developed into paraplegia or tetraplegia, and to compare data from different sports with previous studies in the same geographical region. A retrospective epidemiological study and comparison with previous studies. The Orthopedic Department, specializing in the treatment and rehabilitation of paralyzed patients, at the University of Heidelberg, Germany. Between 1985 and 1997, 1,016 cases of traumatic spinal cord injury presented at the Orthopedic Department at the University of Heidelberg: 6.8% were caused by sport and 7.7% by diving accidents. Sport-related spinal cord injuries with paralysis. A total of 1.016 cases of traumatic spinal cord injury were reviewed. Of these, 14.5% were caused by sport accidents (n = 69) or diving accidents (n = 78). Age of patients ranged from 9 to 52 years. 83% were male. 77% of the patients developed tetraplegia, and 23%, paraplegia. 16 of the sport accidents resulted from downhill skiing, 9 resulted from horseback riding, 7 from modern air sports, 6 from gymnastics, 5 from trampolining, and 26 from other sports. Previous analyses had revealed that paraplegia had mainly occurred from gymnastics, trampolining, or high diving accidents. More recently, however, the number of serious spinal injuries caused by risk-filled sports such as hang gliding and paragliding has significantly increased (p = 0.095), as it has for horseback riding and skiing. Examinations have shown that all patients who were involved in diving accidents developed tetraplegia. An analysis of injury from specific sports is still under way. Analysis of accidents resulting in damage to the spinal cord in respect to different sports shows that sports that have become popular during the last 10 years show an increasing risk of injury. Modern air sports hold the most injuries. Injury-preventing strategies also are presented.

Preliminary Analysis of Aircraft Loss of Control Accidents: Worst Case Precursor Combinations and Temporal Sequencing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Belcastro, Christine M.; Groff, Loren; Newman, Richard L.; Foster, John V.; Crider, Dennis H.; Klyde, David H.; Huston, A. McCall

2014-01-01

Aircraft loss of control (LOC) is a leading cause of fatal accidents across all transport airplane and operational classes, and can result from a wide spectrum of hazards, often occurring in combination. Technologies developed for LOC prevention and recovery must therefore be effective under a wide variety of conditions and uncertainties, including multiple hazards, and their validation must provide a means of assessing system effectiveness and coverage of these hazards. This requires the definition of a comprehensive set of LOC test scenarios based on accident and incident data as well as future risks. This paper defines a comprehensive set of accidents and incidents over a recent 15 year period, and presents preliminary analysis results to identify worst-case combinations of causal and contributing factors (i.e., accident precursors) and how they sequence in time. Such analyses can provide insight in developing effective solutions for LOC, and form the basis for developing test scenarios that can be used in evaluating them. Preliminary findings based on the results of this paper indicate that system failures or malfunctions, crew actions or inactions, vehicle impairment conditions, and vehicle upsets contributed the most to accidents and fatalities, followed by inclement weather or atmospheric disturbances and poor visibility. Follow-on research will include finalizing the analysis through a team consensus process, defining future risks, and developing a comprehensive set of test scenarios with correlation to the accidents, incidents, and future risks. Since enhanced engineering simulations are required for batch and piloted evaluations under realistic LOC precursor conditions, these test scenarios can also serve as a high-level requirement for defining the engineering simulation enhancements needed for generating them.

The SAS4A/SASSYS-1 Safety Analysis Code System, Version 5

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fanning, T. H.; Brunett, A. J.; Sumner, T.

The SAS4A/SASSYS-1 computer code is developed by Argonne National Laboratory for thermal, hydraulic, and neutronic analysis of power and flow transients in liquidmetal- cooled nuclear reactors (LMRs). SAS4A was developed to analyze severe core disruption accidents with coolant boiling and fuel melting and relocation, initiated by a very low probability coincidence of an accident precursor and failure of one or more safety systems. SASSYS-1, originally developed to address loss-of-decay-heat-removal accidents, has evolved into a tool for margin assessment in design basis accident (DBA) analysis and for consequence assessment in beyond-design-basis accident (BDBA) analysis. SAS4A contains detailed, mechanistic models of transientmore » thermal, hydraulic, neutronic, and mechanical phenomena to describe the response of the reactor core, its coolant, fuel elements, and structural members to accident conditions. The core channel models in SAS4A provide the capability to analyze the initial phase of core disruptive accidents, through coolant heat-up and boiling, fuel element failure, and fuel melting and relocation. Originally developed to analyze oxide fuel clad with stainless steel, the models in SAS4A have been extended and specialized to metallic fuel with advanced alloy cladding. SASSYS-1 provides the capability to perform a detailed thermal/hydraulic simulation of the primary and secondary sodium coolant circuits and the balance-ofplant steam/water circuit. These sodium and steam circuit models include component models for heat exchangers, pumps, valves, turbines, and condensers, and thermal/hydraulic models of pipes and plena. SASSYS-1 also contains a plant protection and control system modeling capability, which provides digital representations of reactor, pump, and valve controllers and their response to input signal changes.« less

MELCOR simulations of the severe accident at Fukushima Daiichi Unit 3

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cardoni, Jeffrey; Gauntt, Randall; Kalinich, Donald

In response to the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station in Japan, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and U.S. Department of Energy agreed to jointly sponsor an accident reconstruction study as a means of assessing the severe accident modeling capability of the MELCOR code. Objectives of the project included reconstruction of the accident progressions using computer models and accident data, and validation of the MELCOR code and the Fukushima models against plant data. A MELCOR 2.1 model of the Fukushima Daiichi Unit 3 reactor is developed using plant-specific information and accident-specific boundary conditions, which involve considerable uncertainty duemore » to the inherent nature of severe accidents. Publicly available thermal-hydraulic data and radioactivity release estimates have evolved significantly since the accidents. Such data are expected to continually change as the reactors are decommissioned and more measurements are performed. As a result, the MELCOR simulations in this work primarily use boundary conditions that are based on available plant data as of May 2012.« less

Occupational injuries and sick leaves in household moving works.

PubMed

Hwan Park, Myoung; Jeong, Byung Yong

2017-09-01

This study is concerned with household moving works and the characteristics of occupational injuries and sick leaves in each step of the moving process. Accident data for 392 occupational accidents were categorized by the moving processes in which the accidents occurred, and possible incidents and sick leaves were assessed for each moving process and hazard factor. Accidents occurring during specific moving processes showed different characteristics depending on the type of accident and agency of accidents. The most critical form in the level of risk management was falls from a height in the 'lifting by ladder truck' process. Incidents ranked as a 'High' level of risk management were in the forms of slips, being struck by objects and musculoskeletal disorders in the 'manual materials handling' process. Also, falls in 'loading/unloading', being struck by objects during 'lifting by ladder truck' and driving accidents in the process of 'transport' were ranked 'High'. The findings of this study can be used to develop more effective accident prevention policy reflecting different circumstances and conditions to reduce occupational accidents in household moving works.

The work of the Child Accident Prevention Trust.

PubMed Central

Jackson, R H; Cooper, S; Hayes, H R

1988-01-01

In 1983 an article was published in this Journal describing the work of the Child Accident Prevention Trust. Since that time many developments have taken place in the field of child accident prevention. There has been an increased recognition of the role of accidents and injuries in child health and the importance of accident prevention at an international, national, and local level. This has, in part, been a result of work undertaken by the Child Accident Prevention Trust. Much remains to be done, however, and doctors and other health workers involved with children must recognise the part that they can play in reducing this epidemic. Mortality and morbidity from accidents is the largest single problem in the health of children after the first year of life. The aim of this article is to stimulate interest in the problem of accidents in childhood especially among community paediatricians and clinical medical officers. Hospital doctors and general practitioners also have a particular part to play in drawing the attention of appropriate authorities to factors which have led to accidents that may have been preventable (see Annotation in this issue). PMID:3355217

MELCOR simulations of the severe accident at Fukushima Daiichi Unit 3

DOE PAGES

Cardoni, Jeffrey; Gauntt, Randall; Kalinich, Donald; ...

2014-05-01

In response to the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station in Japan, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and U.S. Department of Energy agreed to jointly sponsor an accident reconstruction study as a means of assessing the severe accident modeling capability of the MELCOR code. Objectives of the project included reconstruction of the accident progressions using computer models and accident data, and validation of the MELCOR code and the Fukushima models against plant data. A MELCOR 2.1 model of the Fukushima Daiichi Unit 3 reactor is developed using plant-specific information and accident-specific boundary conditions, which involve considerable uncertainty duemore » to the inherent nature of severe accidents. Publicly available thermal-hydraulic data and radioactivity release estimates have evolved significantly since the accidents. Such data are expected to continually change as the reactors are decommissioned and more measurements are performed. As a result, the MELCOR simulations in this work primarily use boundary conditions that are based on available plant data as of May 2012.« less

Differences in Characteristics of Aviation Accidents During 1993-2012 Based on Aircraft Type

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Evans, Joni K.

2015-01-01

Civilian aircraft are available in a variety of sizes, engine types, construction materials and instrumentation complexity. For the analysis reported here, eleven aircraft categories were developed based mostly on aircraft size and engine type, and these categories were applied to twenty consecutive years of civil aviation accidents. Differences in various factors were examined among these aircraft types, including accident severity, pilot characteristics and accident occurrence categories. In general, regional jets and very light sport aircraft had the lowest rates of adverse outcomes (injuries, fatal accidents, aircraft destruction, major accidents), while aircraft with twin (piston) engines or with a single (piston) engine and retractable landing gear carried the highest incidence of adverse outcomes. The accident categories of abnormal runway contact, runway excursions and non-powerplant system/component failures occur frequently within all but two or three aircraft types. In contrast, ground collisions, loss of control - on ground/water and powerplant system/component failure occur frequently within only one or two aircraft types. Although accidents in larger aircraft tend to have less severe outcomes, adverse outcome rates also differ among accident categories. It may be that the type of accident has as much or more influence on the outcome as the type of aircraft.

ARAMIS project: a comprehensive methodology for the identification of reference accident scenarios in process industries.

PubMed

Delvosalle, Christian; Fievez, Cécile; Pipart, Aurore; Debray, Bruno

2006-03-31

In the frame of the Accidental Risk Assessment Methodology for Industries (ARAMIS) project, this paper aims at presenting the work carried out in the part of the project devoted to the definition of accident scenarios. This topic is a key-point in risk assessment and serves as basis for the whole risk quantification. The first result of the work is the building of a methodology for the identification of major accident hazards (MIMAH), which is carried out with the development of generic fault and event trees based on a typology of equipment and substances. The term "major accidents" must be understood as the worst accidents likely to occur on the equipment, assuming that no safety systems are installed. A second methodology, called methodology for the identification of reference accident scenarios (MIRAS) takes into account the influence of safety systems on both the frequencies and possible consequences of accidents. This methodology leads to identify more realistic accident scenarios. The reference accident scenarios are chosen with the help of a tool called "risk matrix", crossing the frequency and the consequences of accidents. This paper presents both methodologies and an application on an ethylene oxide storage.

Loss of control air at Browns Ferry Unit One: accident sequence analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harrington, R.M.; Hodge, S.A.

1986-04-01

This study describes the predicted response of the Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant to a postulated complete failure of plant control air. The failure of plant control air cascades to include the loss of drywell control air at Units 1 and 2. Nevertheless, this is a benign accident unless compounded by simultaneous failures in the turbine-driven high pressure injection systems. Accident sequence calculations are presented for Loss of Control Air sequences with assumed failure upon demand of the Reactor Core Isolation Cooling (RCIC) and the High Pressure Coolant Injection (HPCI) at Unit 1. Sequences with and without operator action are considered.more » Results show that the operators can prevent core uncovery if they take action to utilize the Control Rod Drive Hydraulic System as a backup high pressure injection system.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dobromir Panayotov; Andrew Grief; Brad J. Merrill

'Fusion for Energy' (F4E) develops designs and implements the European Test Blanket Systems (TBS) in ITER - Helium-Cooled Lithium-Lead (HCLL) and Helium-Cooled Pebble-Bed (HCPB). Safety demonstration is an essential element for the integration of TBS in ITER and accident analyses are one of its critical segments. A systematic approach to the accident analyses had been acquired under the F4E contract on TBS safety analyses. F4E technical requirements and AMEC and INL efforts resulted in the development of a comprehensive methodology for fusion breeding blanket accident analyses. It addresses the specificity of the breeding blankets design, materials and phenomena and atmore » the same time is consistent with the one already applied to ITER accident analyses. Methodology consists of several phases. At first the reference scenarios are selected on the base of FMEA studies. In the second place elaboration of the accident analyses specifications we use phenomena identification and ranking tables to identify the requirements to be met by the code(s) and TBS models. Thus the limitations of the codes are identified and possible solutions to be built into the models are proposed. These include among others the loose coupling of different codes or code versions in order to simulate multi-fluid flows and phenomena. The code selection and issue of the accident analyses specifications conclude this second step. Furthermore the breeding blanket and ancillary systems models are built on. In this work challenges met and solutions used in the development of both MELCOR and RELAP5 codes models of HCLL and HCPB TBSs will be shared. To continue the developed models are qualified by comparison with finite elements analyses, by code to code comparison and sensitivity studies. Finally, the qualified models are used for the execution of the accident analyses of specific scenario. When possible the methodology phases will be illustrated in the paper by limited number of tables and figures. Description of each phase and its results in detail as well the methodology applications to EU HCLL and HCPB TBSs will be published in separate papers. The developed methodology is applicable to accident analyses of other TBSs to be tested in ITER and as well to DEMO breeding blankets.« less

Prediction and Prevention of Chemical Reaction Hazards: Learning by Simulation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shacham, Mordechai; Brauner, Neima; Cutlip, Michael B.

2001-01-01

Points out that chemical hazards are the major cause of accidents in chemical industry and describes a safety teaching approach using a simulation. Explains a problem statement on exothermic liquid-phase reactions. (YDS)

Investigations on optimization of accident management measures following a station blackout accident in a VVER-1000 pressurized water reactor

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tusheva, P.; Schaefer, F.; Kliem, S.

2012-07-01

The reactor safety issues are of primary importance for preserving the health of the population and ensuring no release of radioactivity and fission products into the environment. A part of the nuclear research focuses on improvement of the safety of existing nuclear power plants. Studies, research and efforts are a continuing process at improving the safety and reliability of existing and newly developed nuclear power plants at prevention of a core melt accident. Station blackout (loss of AC power supply) is one of the dominant accidents taken into consideration at performing accident analysis. In case of multiple failures of safetymore » systems it leads to a severe accident. To prevent an accident to turn into a severe one or to mitigate the consequences, accident management measures must be performed. The present paper outlines possibilities for application and optimization of accident management measures following a station blackout accident. Assessed is the behaviour of the nuclear power plant during a station blackout accident without accident management measures and with application of primary/secondary side oriented accident management measures. Discussed are the possibilities for operators ' intervention and the influence of the performed accident management measures on the course of the accident. Special attention has been paid to the effectiveness of the passive feeding and physical phenomena having an influence on the system behaviour. The performed simulations show that the effectiveness of the secondary side feeding procedure can be limited due to an early evaporation or flashing effects in the feed water system. The analyzed cases show that the effectiveness of the accident management measures strongly depends on the initiation criteria applied for depressurization of the reactor coolant system. (authors)« less

[Characterization of severe acute occupational poisoning accidents related to irritating gases in China between 1989 and 2003].

PubMed

Du, Xie-Yi; Zhang, Min; Wang, Huan-Qiang; Li, Tao; Wang, Hong-Fei; Chen, Shu-Yang; Zhang, Shuang; Qin, Jian; Ji, Li-Ying

2006-12-01

To analyze severe acute occupational poisoning accidents related to irritating gases reported in China between 1989 and 2003, and to study the characteristics of severe acute occupational poisoning accidents and provide scientific evidences for prevention and control strategies. The data from the national occupational poisoning case reporting system were analyzed with descriptive methods. (1) There were 92 severe acute occupational poisoning accidents related to asphyxiating gases during 15 years, which showed that there were 14.5 accidents occurred each year. Forty types of chemicals were reported to cause poisoning accidents directly. On average, there were 14.5 persons poisoned and 0.8 persons died of poisoning in each event. The number of death of poisoning reached 7 in most of the severe accidents. Chlorine was the main irritating gas resulting in poisoning accidents according to the number of accidents, cases and death. (1) The severe acute occupational poisoning related to irritating gases are more dangerous than others because of it is involved in more cases in each accident. (2) The accidents have concentricity in the certain types of chemicals, industries and jobs, and should be focused on control. (3) It is important to develop the program about early warning and forecast and the first aid.

Heterogeneity of road traffic accident rate in the Russian cities and the need of usage various methods of transport safety management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrov, A. I.; Petrova, D. A.

2017-10-01

The article considers one of the topical problems of road safety management at the federal level - the problem of the heterogeneity of road traffic accident rate in Russian cities. The article analyzes actual statistical data on road traffic accident rate in the administrative centers of Russia. The histograms of the distribution of the values of two most important road accidents characteristics - Social Risk HR and Severity Rate of Road Accidents - formed in 2016 in administrative centers of Russia are presented. On the basis of the regression model of the statistical connection between Severity Rate of Road Accidents and Social Risk HR, a classification of the Russian cities based on the level of actual road traffic accident rate was developed. On the basis of this classification a differentiated system of priority methods for organizing the safe functioning of transport systems in the cities of Russia is proposed.

Introduction of Bayesian network in risk analysis of maritime accidents in Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, Sohanur

2017-12-01

Due to the unique geographic location, complex navigation environment and intense vessel traffic, a considerable number of maritime accidents occurred in Bangladesh which caused serious loss of life, property and environmental contamination. Based on the historical data of maritime accidents from 1981 to 2015, which has been collected from Department of Shipping (DOS) and Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authority (BIWTA), this paper conducted a risk analysis of maritime accidents by applying Bayesian network. In order to conduct this study, a Bayesian network model has been developed to find out the relation among parameters and the probability of them which affect accidents based on the accident investigation report of Bangladesh. Furthermore, number of accidents in different categories has also been investigated in this paper. Finally, some viable recommendations have been proposed in order to ensure greater safety of inland vessels in Bangladesh.

Farm accidents and injuries among farm families and workers. A pilot study.

PubMed

Cummings, P H

1991-09-01

Farm accident facts traditionally have been difficult to collect because of the wide array of farm family and non-family involvement in farming practices. Areas commonly involved in farm related accidents include farm machinery, tractor overturns, farm animals, farm trucks, hand and power tools, household items, chemicals, and garden equipment. Two purposes of this descriptive study were to examine, over a 1 year period, the demographic features and types, severity, and mechanisms of injury among farm families and their workers in a representative county in South Carolina, and to develop a two part mail-out questionnaire for data collection relative to farm work related accidents. The researcher concluded that farm accidents are sparsely researched; that traditional data collection methods are difficult, expensive, and time consuming; and that mail-out questionnaires are not a very effective method of collecting data relative to farm accidents, since farmers proved very reluctant to report accidents.

Safety-in-numbers: Estimates based on a sample of pedestrian crossings in Norway.

PubMed

Elvik, Rune

2016-06-01

Safety-in-numbers denotes the tendency for the risk of accident for each road user to decline as the number of road users increases. Safety-in-numbers implies that a doubling of the number of road users will be associated with less than a doubling of the number of accidents. This paper investigates safety-in-numbers in 239 pedestrian crossings in Oslo and its suburbs. Accident prediction models were fitted by means of negative binomial regression. The models indicate a very strong safety-in-numbers effect. In the final model, the coefficients for traffic volume were 0.05 for motor vehicles, 0.07 for pedestrians and 0.12 for cyclists. The coefficient for motor vehicles implies that the number of accidents is almost independent of the number of motor vehicles. The safety-in-numbers effect found in this paper is stronger than reported in any other study dealing with safety-in-numbers. It should be noted that the model explained only 21% of the systematic variation in the number of accidents. It therefore cannot be ruled out that the results are influenced by omitted variable bias. Any such bias would, however, have to be very large to eliminate the safety-in-numbers effect. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Analysis of radiation-hygienic and medical consequences of the Chernobyl accident].

PubMed

Onishchenko, G G

2013-01-01

Since the day of "the Chernobyl accident" in 1986 more than 25 years have been past. Radioactively contaminated areas 14 subjects of the Russian Federation with a total area of more than 50 thousand km2, where 1.5 million people now reside were exposed to radioactive contamination. Currently, a system of comprehensive evaluation of radiation doses of the population affected by the "Chernobyl accidents", including 11 guidance documents has been created. There are methodically provided works on the assessment of average annual, accumulated and predicted radiation doses of population and its critical groups, as well as doses to the thyroid gland The relevance of the analysis of the consequences of the "Chernobyl accident" is demonstrated by the events in Japan, at nuclear power Fukusima-1. In 2011 - 20/2 there were carried out comprehensive maritime expeditions under the auspices of the Russian Geographical Society with the participation of relevant ministries and agencies, leading academic institutions in Russia. In 2012, work was carried out on radiation protection of the population from the potential transboundary impact of the accident at the Japanese nuclear power plant Fukushima-l. The results provide a basis for the favorable outlook for the radiation environment in our Far East and the Pacific coast of Russia.

Emergency preparedness for the accidental release of radionuclides from the Uljin Nuclear Power Plant in Korea.

PubMed

Park, Soon-Ung; Lee, In-Hye; Joo, Seung Jin; Ju, Jae-Won

2017-12-01

Site specific radionuclide dispersion databases were archived for the emergency response to the hypothetical releases of 137 Cs from the Uljin nuclear power plant in Korea. These databases were obtained with the horizontal resolution of 1.5 km in the local domain centered the power plant site by simulations of the Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model (LPDM) with the Unified Model (UM)-Local Data Assimilation Prediction System (LDAPS). The Eulerian Dispersion Model-East Asia (EDM-EA) with the UM-Global Data Assimilation Prediction System (UM-GDAPS) meteorological models was used to get dispersion databases in the regional domain. The LPDM model was performed for a year with a 5-day interval yielding 72 synoptic time-scale cases in a year. For each case hourly mean near surface concentrations, hourly mean column integrated concentrations, hourly total depositions for 5 consecutive days were archived by the LPDM model in the local domain and by the EDM-EA model in the regional domain of Asia. Among 72 synoptic cases in a year the worst synoptic case that showed the highest mean surface concentration averaged for 5 days in the LPDM model domain was chosen to illustrate the emergency preparedness to the hypothetical accident at the site. The simulated results by the LPDM model with the 137 Cs emission rate of the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident for the first 5-day period were found to be able to provide prerequisite information for the emergency response to the early phase of the accident whereas those of the EDM-EA model could provide information required for the environmental impact assessment of the accident in the regional domain. The archived site-specific database of 72 synoptic cases in a year could have a great potential to be used as a prognostic information on the emergency preparedness for the early phase of accident. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dispersion and fate of ⁹⁰Sr in the Northwestern Pacific and adjacent seas: global fallout and the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident.

PubMed

Maderich, V; Jung, K T; Bezhenar, R; de With, G; Qiao, F; Casacuberta, N; Masque, P; Kim, Y H

2014-10-01

The 3D compartment model POSEIDON-R was applied to the Northwestern Pacific and adjacent seas to simulate the transport and fate of (90)Sr in the period 1945-2010 and to perform a radiological assessment on the releases of (90)Sr due to the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident for the period 2011-2040. The contamination due to runoff of (90)Sr from terrestrial surfaces was taken into account using a generic predictive model. A dynamical food-chain model describes the transfer of (90)Sr to phytoplankton, zooplankton, molluscs, crustaceans, piscivorous and non-piscivorous fishes. Results of the simulations were compared with observation data on (90)Sr for the period 1955-2010 and the budget of (90)Sr activity was estimated. It was found that in the East China Sea and Yellow Sea the riverine influx was 1.5% of the ocean influx and it was important only locally. Calculated concentrations of (90)Sr in water, bottom sediment and marine organisms before and after the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident are in good agreement with available experimental measurements. The concentration of (90)Sr in seawater would return to the background levels within one year after leakages were stopped. The model predicts that the concentration of (90)Sr in fish after the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident shall return to the background concentrations only 2 years later due to the delay of the transfer throughout the food web and specific accumulation of (90)Sr. The contribution of (90)Sr to the maximal dose rate due to the FDNPP accident was three orders of magnitude less than that due to (137)Cs, and thus well below the maximum effective dose limits for the public. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Progressive Damage Methodology for Residual Strength Predictions of Center-Crack Tension Composite Panels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coats, Timothy William

1996-01-01

An investigation of translaminate fracture and a progressive damage methodology was conducted to evaluate and develop a residual strength prediction capability for laminated composites with through penetration notches. This is relevant to the damage tolerance of an aircraft fuselage that might suffer an in-flight accident such as an uncontained engine failure. An experimental characterization of several composite materials systems revealed an R-curve type of behavior. Fractographic examinations led to the postulate that this crack growth resistance could be due to fiber bridging, defined here as fractured fibers of one ply bridged by intact fibers of an adjacent ply. The progressive damage methodology is currently capable of predicting the initiation and growth of matrix cracks and fiber fracture. Using two difference fiber failure criteria, residual strength was predicted for different size panel widths and notch lengths. A ply discount fiber failure criterion yielded extremely conservative results while an elastic-perfectly plastic fiber failure criterion showed that the fiber bridging concept is valid for predicting residual strength for tensile dominated failure loads. Furthermore, the R-curves predicted by the model using the elastic-perfectly plastic fiber criterion compared very well with the experimental R-curves.

Prognosis of outcome in adult survivors of road accidents in France: one-year follow-Up in the ESPARR cohort.

PubMed

Nhac-Vu, Hoang-Thy; Hours, Martine; Chossegros, Laetitia; Charnay, Pierrette; Tardy, Helene; Martin, Jean-Louis; Mazaux, Jean-Michel; Laumon, Bernard

2014-01-01

The consequences of road crashes are various, and few studies have dealt with the multidimensionality of outcomes. The aim of the present study was to assess the multidimensional nature of outcomes one year after a crash and to determine predictive factors that could help in adapting medical and social care to prevent such consequences to improve road crash victims' prognosis. The study population was the 886 respondents to the one-year follow-up from the ESPARR (Etude et Suivi d'une Population d'Accidentés de la Route du Rhône) cohort, aged ≥ 16 years; the analysis was carried out only on the 616 subjects who fully completed a self-report questionnaire on health, social, emotional, and financial status one year after a crash. Multiple correspondence analysis and hierarchical clustering was implemented to produce homogeneous groups according to differences in outcome. Groups were compared using the World Health Organization Quality of Life Assessment (WHOQOL-BREF, a standard instrument of quality of life, assessing physical health, psychological health, social relationships, and environment) and the Injury Impairment Scale (IIS), a tool to predict road crash sequelae. Baseline predictive factors for group attribution were analyzed by weighted multinomial logistic regression models. Three hundred seventeen of the 616 subjects (60.1%) were men. Mean age was 36.9 years (SD = 16.5). Five victim groups were identified in terms of consequences at one year: one group (206 subjects, 33.4%) with few problems, one with essentially physical sequelae, one with problems that were essentially both physical and social, and 2 groups with a wider range of problems (one including psychological problems but fewer environmental problems; the last one reported negative physical, psychological, social, and environmental impact; notably, all had post-concussion syndrome [PCS]). There were significant differences between groups in terms of family status, injury severity, and certain types of injury (thorax, spine, lower limbs). Comparison on the WHOQOL-BREF confirmed that groups reporting more adverse outcomes had a lower quality of life. Description of the 5 groups by IIS indicators showed that IIS underestimated physical consequences one year after the crash. In addition to the known prognostic factors such as age, initial injury severity, and injury type, socioeconomic fragility and having a relative involved in the accident emerged as predictive of poor outcome at one year. One year after the crash, victims may still be experiencing multiple problems in terms of not only physical health but also of mental health, social life, and environment. Poor outcome may be predicted from both accident-related factors and socioeconomic fragility. Our results are useful in catching the attention of both clinicians and the public administration regarding victims at risk of suffering from important consequences after an accident. If those suffering head injuries are recognized, it would be very important to better consider and treat posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) or PCS. Furthermore, subjects from lower socioeconomic backgrounds, with or without lower limb injuries, have numerous difficulties after an accident, notably for returning to work. An objective would be to provide them with more specific support. Supplemental materials are available for this article. Go to the publisher's online edition of Traffic Injury Prevention to view the supplemental file.

Personal factors and working conditions as predictors of work injuries among industrial workers.

PubMed

Kamel, M I; Atta, H Y; Foda, N T; Mostafa, Y A; Youssef, R M

1998-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the personal factors and working conditions that predict work injuries among industrial workers. To fulfill this aim, a case control study was conducted including 2003 industrial workers who sustained a work injury and an equal number of controls. All were subjected to an interview questionnaire to collect relevant information. Moreover, records were reviewed to obtain the medical history of enrolled workers. Data revealed that workers in the index and control groups are comparable in respect to their sociodemographic characteristics. The multivariate logistic regression analysis pointed out that safety training significantly reduces the risk of work accidents among industrial workers. On the other hand, work accidents are more likely to occur in the main working shift. Moreover, workers who suffer from chronic health problems calling for surgical treatment, as well as those who reported family problems, are more likely to experience work accidents. These workers should receive considerable attention to reduce the extent of work injuries. More importantly, safety-training programs are mandatory for accident prevention in industrial settings.

Impulsivity, risky behaviors and accidents in alcohol-dependent patients

PubMed Central

Jakubczyk, Andrzej; Klimkiewicz, Anna; Wnorowska, Anna; Mika, Katarzyna; Bugaj, Marcin; Podgórska, Anna; Barry, Kristen; Blow, Frederic C.; Brower, Kirk J.; Wojnar, Marcin

2013-01-01

Impulsivity and alcohol drinking are both considered as important predictors of unintentional as well as intentional injuries. However, relationships of impulsivity with risky behaviors and a history of accidents have not been investigated in alcohol dependence. The aim of this study was to analyze relationships between the frequency of risky behaviors and level of behavioral as well as cognitive impulsivity in alcohol-dependent patients. By means of Barratt’s Impulsiveness Scale (BIS) and stop-signal task, the levels of cognitive and behavioral impulsivity among 304 alcohol-dependent patients were measured. Also, patients were asked to answer questions from the Short Inventory of Problems applying to risky behaviors and accidents after alcohol drinking. In addition participants completed a questionnaire to assess frequency of other behaviors from the analyzed spectrum (use of other drugs, driving or aggressive behavior after alcohol drinking). The statistical analysis revealed a significant association between impulsivity and frequency of risky behaviors in alcohol-dependent patients. Individuals with higher scores in BIS behaved more frequently in a risky way and had significantly more accidents after alcohol drinking. The association with risky behaviors was strongest for non-planning and attentional impulsivity subscales, whereas frequency of accidents was particularly associated with motor impulsivity. A multivariate analysis revealed that impulsivity was the most important predictor of risky behaviors, but did not significantly predict a history of accidents. Our study confirms that impulsivity is an important correlate of risky behaviors in alcohol-dependent individuals, along with global psychopathology and severity of alcohol dependence. PMID:23246707

Prospective Safety Analysis and the Complex Aviation System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Brian E.

2013-01-01

Fatal accident rates in commercial passenger aviation are at historic lows yet have plateaued and are not showing evidence of further safety advances. Modern aircraft accidents reflect both historic causal factors and new unexpected "Black Swan" events. The ever-increasing complexity of the aviation system, along with its associated technology and organizational relationships, provides fertile ground for fresh problems. It is important to take a proactive approach to aviation safety by working to identify novel causation mechanisms for future aviation accidents before they happen. Progress has been made in using of historic data to identify the telltale signals preceding aviation accidents and incidents, using the large repositories of discrete and continuous data on aircraft and air traffic control performance and information reported by front-line personnel. Nevertheless, the aviation community is increasingly embracing predictive approaches to aviation safety. The "prospective workshop" early assessment tool described in this paper represents an approach toward this prospective mindset-one that attempts to identify the future vectors of aviation and asks the question: "What haven't we considered in our current safety assessments?" New causation mechanisms threatening aviation safety will arise in the future because new (or revised) systems and procedures will have to be used under future contextual conditions that have not been properly anticipated. Many simulation models exist for demonstrating the safety cases of new operational concepts and technologies. However the results from such models can only be as valid as the accuracy and completeness of assumptions made about the future context in which the new operational concepts and/or technologies will be immersed. Of course that future has not happened yet. What is needed is a reasonably high-confidence description of the future operational context, capturing critical contextual characteristics that modulate both the likelihood of occurrence of hazards, and the likelihood that those hazards will lead to negative safety events. Heuristics extracted from scenarios, questionnaires, and observed trends from scanning the aviation horizon may be helpful in capturing those future changes in a way conducive to safety assessment. What is also needed is a checklist of potential sources of emerging risk that arise from organizational features that are frequently overlooked. The ultimate goal is to develop a pragmatic, workable method for using descriptions of the future aviation context, to generate valid predictions of safety risks.

The MELTSPREAD Code for Modeling of Ex-Vessel Core Debris Spreading Behavior, Code Manual – Version3-beta

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Farmer, M. T.

MELTSPREAD3 is a transient one-dimensional computer code that has been developed to predict the gravity-driven flow and freezing behavior of molten reactor core materials (corium) in containment geometries. Predictions can be made for corium flowing across surfaces under either dry or wet cavity conditions. The spreading surfaces that can be selected are steel, concrete, a user-specified material (e.g., a ceramic), or an arbitrary combination thereof. The corium can have a wide range of compositions of reactor core materials that includes distinct oxide phases (predominantly Zr, and steel oxides) plus metallic phases (predominantly Zr and steel). The code requires input thatmore » describes the containment geometry, melt “pour” conditions, and cavity atmospheric conditions (i.e., pressure, temperature, and cavity flooding information). For cases in which the cavity contains a preexisting water layer at the time of RPV failure, melt jet breakup and particle bed formation can be calculated mechanistically given the time-dependent melt pour conditions (input data) as well as the heatup and boiloff of water in the melt impingement zone (calculated). For core debris impacting either the containment floor or previously spread material, the code calculates the transient hydrodynamics and heat transfer which determine the spreading and freezing behavior of the melt. The code predicts conditions at the end of the spreading stage, including melt relocation distance, depth and material composition profiles, substrate ablation profile, and wall heatup. Code output can be used as input to other models such as CORQUENCH that evaluate long term core-concrete interaction behavior following the transient spreading stage. MELTSPREAD3 was originally developed to investigate BWR Mark I liner vulnerability, but has been substantially upgraded and applied to other reactor designs (e.g., the EPR), and more recently to the plant accidents at Fukushima Daiichi. The most recent round of improvements that are documented in this report have been specifically implemented to support industry in developing Severe Accident Water Management (SAWM) strategies for Boiling Water Reactors.« less

Statistical Analysis And Treatment Of Accident Black Spots: A Case Study Of Nandyal Mandal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sudharshan Reddy, B.; Vishnu Vardhan Reddy, L.; Sreenivasa Reddy, G., Dr

2017-08-01

Background: Increased, economic activity raised the consumption levels of the people across the country. This created scope for increase in travel and transportation. The increase in the vehicles since last 10 years has put lot of pressure on the existing roads and ultimately resulting in road accidents. Nandyal Mandal is located in the Kurnool district of Andhra Pradesh and well developed in both agricultural and industrial sectors after Kurnool. 567 accidents occurred in the last seven years at 143 locations shows the severity of the accidents in the Nandyal Mandal. There is a need to carry out some work in the Nandyal Mandal to improve the accidents black spots for reducing the accidents. Methods: Last seven years (2010-2016) of accident data collected from Police Stations. Weighted Severity Index (WSI), a scientific method is used for identifying the accident black spots. Statistical analysis has carried out for the collected data using Chi-Square Test to determine the independence of accidents with other attributes. Chi-Square Goodness of fit test conducted for test whether the accidents are occurring by chance or following any pattern. Results: WSI values are determined for the 143 locations. The Locations with high WSI are treated as accident black spots. Five black spots are taken for field study. After field observations and interaction with the public, some improvements are suggested for improving the accident black spots. There is no relationship between the severity of accidents and the other attributes like month, season, day, hours in day and the age group except type of vehicle. Road accidents are distributed throughout the Year, Month and Season. Road accidents are not distributed throughout the day.

The application of a piezo-resistive cardiorespiratory sensor system in an automobile safety belt.

PubMed

Hamdani, Syed Talha Ali; Fernando, Anura

2015-03-30

Respiratory and heart failure are conditions that can occur with little warning and may also be difficult to predict. Therefore continuous monitoring of these bio-signals is advantageous for ensuring human health. The car safety belt is mainly designed to secure the occupants of the vehicle in the event of an accident. In the current research a prototype safety belt is developed, which is used to acquire respiratory and heart signals, under laboratory conditions. The current safety belt is constructed using a copper ink based nonwoven material, which works based on the piezo-resistive effect due to the pressure exerted on the sensor as a result of expansion of the thorax/abdomen area of the body for respiration and due to the principle of ballistocardiography (BCG) in heart signal sensing. In this research, the development of a theoretical model to qualitatively describe the piezo-resistive material is also presented in order to predict the relative change in the resistance of the piezo-resistive material due to the pressure applied.

Cavity Heating Experiments Supporting Shuttle Columbia Accident Investigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Everhart, Joel L.; Berger, Karen T.; Bey, Kim S.; Merski, N. Ronald; Wood, William A.

2011-01-01

The two-color thermographic phosphor method has been used to map the local heating augmentation of scaled idealized cavities at conditions simulating the windward surface of the Shuttle Orbiter Columbia during flight STS-107. Two experiments initiated in support of the Columbia Accident Investigation were conducted in the Langley 20-Inch Mach 6 Tunnel. Generally, the first test series evaluated open (length-to-depth less than 10) rectangular cavity geometries proposed as possible damage scenarios resulting from foam and ice impact during launch at several discrete locations on the vehicle windward surface, though some closed (length-to-depth greater than 13) geometries were briefly examined. The second test series was designed to parametrically evaluate heating augmentation in closed rectangular cavities. The tests were conducted under laminar cavity entry conditions over a range of local boundary layer edge-flow parameters typical of re-entry. Cavity design parameters were developed using laminar computational predictions, while the experimental boundary layer state conditions were inferred from the heating measurements. An analysis of the aeroheating caused by cavities allowed exclusion of non-breeching damage from the possible loss scenarios being considered during the investigation.

Core thermal response and hydrogen generation of the N Reactor hydrogen mitigation design basis accident

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

White, M.D.; Lombardo, N.J.; Heard, F.J.

1988-04-01

Calculations were performed to determine core heatup, core damage, and subsequent hydrogen production of a hypothetical loss-of-cooling accident at the Department of Energy's N Reactor. The thermal transient response of the reactor core was solved using the TRUMP-BD computer program. Estimates of whole-core thermal damage and hydrogen production were made by weighting the results of multiple half-length pressure tube simulations at various power levels. The Baker-Just and Wilson parabolic rate equations for the metal-water chemical reactions modeled the key phenomena of chemical energy and hydrogen evolution. Unlimited steam was assumed available for continuous oxidation of exposed Zircaloy-2 surfaces and formore » uranium metal with fuel cladding beyond the failure temperature (1038 C). Intact fuel geometry was modeled. Maximum fuel temperatures (1181 C) in the cooled central regions of the core were predicted to occur one-half hour into the accident scenario. Maximum fuel temperatures of 1447 C occurred in the core GSCS-regions at the end of the 10-h transient. After 10-h 26% of the fuel inventory was predicted to have failed. Peak hydrogen evolution equaled 42 g/s, while 10-h integrated hydrogen evolution equaled 167 kg. 12 refs., 12 figs., 2 tabs.« less

A methodology for accident analysis of fusion breeder blankets and its application to helium-cooled lead–lithium blanket

DOE PAGES

Panayotov, Dobromir; Poitevin, Yves; Grief, Andrew; ...

2016-09-23

'Fusion for Energy' (F4E) is designing, developing, and implementing the European Helium-Cooled Lead-Lithium (HCLL) and Helium-Cooled Pebble-Bed (HCPB) Test Blanket Systems (TBSs) for ITER (Nuclear Facility INB-174). Safety demonstration is an essential element for the integration of these TBSs into ITER and accident analysis is one of its critical components. A systematic approach to accident analysis has been developed under the F4E contract on TBS safety analyses. F4E technical requirements, together with Amec Foster Wheeler and INL efforts, have resulted in a comprehensive methodology for fusion breeding blanket accident analysis that addresses the specificity of the breeding blanket designs, materials,more » and phenomena while remaining consistent with the approach already applied to ITER accident analyses. Furthermore, the methodology phases are illustrated in the paper by its application to the EU HCLL TBS using both MELCOR and RELAP5 codes.« less

Economic development, mobility and traffic accidents in Algeria.

PubMed

Bougueroua, M; Carnis, L

2016-07-01

The aim of this contribution is to estimate the impact of road economic conditions and mobility on traffic accidents for the case of Algeria. Using the cointegration approach and vector error correction model (VECM), we will examine simultaneously short term and long-term impacts between the number of traffic accidents, fuel consumption and gross domestic product (GDP) per capital, over the period 1970-2013. The main results of the estimation show that the number of traffic accidents in Algeria is positively influenced by the GDP per capita in the short and long term. It implies that a higher economic development worsens the road safety situation. However, the new traffic rules adopted in 2009 have an impact on the forecast trend of traffic accidents, meaning efficient public policy could improve the situation. This result calls for a strong political commitment with effective countermeasures for avoiding the further deterioration of road safety record in Algeria. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An operational centre for managing major chemical industrial accidents.

PubMed

Kiranoudis, C T; Kourniotis, S P; Christolis, M; Markatos, N C; Zografos, K G; Giannouli, I M; Androutsopoulos, K N; Ziomas, I; Kosmidis, E; Simeonidis, P; Poupkou, N

2002-01-28

The most important characteristic of major chemical accidents, from a societal perspective, is their tendency to produce off-site effects. The extent and severity of the accident may significantly affect the population and the environment of the adjacent areas. Following an accident event, effort should be made to limit such effects. Management decisions should be based on rational and quantitative information based on the site specific circumstances and the possible consequences. To produce such information we have developed an operational centre for managing large-scale industrial accidents. Its architecture involves an integrated framework of geographical information system (GIS) and RDBMS technology systems equipped with interactive communication capabilities. The operational centre was developed for Windows 98 platforms, for the region of Thriasion Pedion of West Attica, where the concentration of industrial activity and storage of toxic chemical is immense within areas of high population density. An appropriate case study is given in order to illuminate the use and necessity of the operational centre.

An Empirical Non-TNT Approach to Launch Vehicle Explosion Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blackwood, James M.; Skinner, Troy; Richardson, Erin H.; Bangham, Michal E.

2015-01-01

In an effort to increase crew survivability from catastrophic explosions of Launch Vehicles (LV), a study was conducted to determine the best method for predicting LV explosion environments in the near field. After reviewing such methods as TNT equivalence, Vapor Cloud Explosion (VCE) theory, and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), it was determined that the best approach for this study was to assemble all available empirical data from full scale launch vehicle explosion tests and accidents. Approximately 25 accidents or full-scale tests were found that had some amount of measured blast wave, thermal, or fragment explosion environment characteristics. Blast wave overpressure was found to be much lower in the near field than predicted by most TNT equivalence methods. Additionally, fragments tended to be larger, fewer, and slower than expected if the driving force was from a high explosive type event. In light of these discoveries, a simple model for cryogenic rocket explosions is presented. Predictions from this model encompass all known applicable full scale launch vehicle explosion data. Finally, a brief description of on-going analysis and testing to further refine the launch vehicle explosion environment is discussed.

a Study of the Interferences with the On-Line Radioiodine Measurement Under Nuclear Accident Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tseng, Tung-Tse

In this research the interferences with the on -line detection of radioiodines, under nuclear accident conditions, were studied. The special tool employed for this research is the developed on-line radioiodine monitor (the Penn State Radioiodine Monitor), which is capable of detecting low levels of radioiodine on-line in air containing orders of magnitude higher levels of radioactive noble gases. Most of the data reported in this thesis were collected during a series of experiments called "Source -Term Experiment Program (STEP)." The experiments were conducted at the Argonne National Laboratory's TREAT reactor located at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). In these tests, fission products were released from the Light Water Reactor (LWR) test fuels as a result of simulating a reactor accident. The Penn State Monitor was then used to sample the fission products accumulated in a large container which simulated the reactor containment building. The test results proved that the Penn State Monitor was not affected significantly by the passage of large amounts of noble gases through the system. Also, it confirmed the predicted results that the operation of conventional on-line radioiodine detectors would, under nuclear accident conditions, be seriously impaired by the passage of high concentrations of radioactive noble gases through such systems. This work also demonstrated that under conditions of high noble gas concentrations and low radioiodine concentrations, the formation of noble-gas-decayed alkali metals can seriously interfere with the on-line detection of radioiodine, especially during the 24 hours immediately after the accident. The decayed alkali metal particulates were also found to be much more penetrating than the ordinary type of particulates, since a large fraction (15%) of the particulates were found to penetrate through the commonly used High Efficiency Particulate Air (HEPA) filter (rated >99.97% for 0.3 (mu)m particulate). Also, a significant fraction ((TURN)40%) of these particles became deposited on silver zeolite iodine filters inside the counting chamber. Finally, the Penn State Monitor proved itself to be a powerful research tool for the on-line source term studies since it can easily produce near noble-gas-free spectra during the real time studies occurring under simulated nuclear accident conditions.

[Regulations for decontamination of surfaces polluted as a result of chemical accidents (concept approaches)].

PubMed

Filatov, B N; Britanov, N G; Tochilkina, L P; Zhukov, V E; Maslennikov, A A; Ignatenko, M N; Volchek, K

2011-01-01

The threat of industrial chemical accidents and terrorist attacks requires the development of safety regulations for the cleanup of contaminated surfaces. This paper presents principles and a methodology for the development of a new toxicological parameter, "relative value unit" (RVU) as the primary decontamination standard.

Accident Journalism and Traffic Safety Education: A Three-Phase Investigation of Accident Reporting in the Canadian Daily Press.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilde, Gerald J. S.; Ackersviller, Melody J.

A study examined the potential for development of a traffic accident-reporting form in the Canadian daily press that strengthens concern for road safety in the general population and enhances knowledge, attitudes, and behavior leading to greater safety. The investigation was conducted on three levels: a content analysis, a readership analysis, and…

Study of aircraft crashworthiness for fire protection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cominsky, A.

1981-01-01

Impact-survivable postcrash fire accidents were surveyed. The data base developed includes foreign and domestic accidents involving airlines and jet aircraft. The emphasis was placed on domestic accidents, airlines, and jet aircraft due principally to availability of information. Only transport category aircraft in commercial service designed under FAR Part 25 were considered. A matrix was prepared to show the relationships between the accident characteristics and the fire fatalities. Typical postcrash fire scenaries were identified. Safety concepts were developed for three engineering categories: cabin interiors - cabin subsystems; power plant - engines and fuel systems; and structural mechanics - primary and secondary structures. The parameters identified for concept evaluation are cost, effectiveness, and societal concerns. Three concepts were selected for design definition and cost and effectiveness analysis: improved fire-resistant seat materials; anti-misting kerosene; and additional cabin emergency exits.

Investigating accident causation through information network modelling.

PubMed

Griffin, T G C; Young, M S; Stanton, N A

2010-02-01

Management of risk in complex domains such as aviation relies heavily on post-event investigations, requiring complex approaches to fully understand the integration of multi-causal, multi-agent and multi-linear accident sequences. The Event Analysis of Systemic Teamwork methodology (EAST; Stanton et al. 2008) offers such an approach based on network models. In this paper, we apply EAST to a well-known aviation accident case study, highlighting communication between agents as a central theme and investigating the potential for finding agents who were key to the accident. Ultimately, this work aims to develop a new model based on distributed situation awareness (DSA) to demonstrate that the risk inherent in a complex system is dependent on the information flowing within it. By identifying key agents and information elements, we can propose proactive design strategies to optimize the flow of information and help work towards avoiding aviation accidents. Statement of Relevance: This paper introduces a novel application of an holistic methodology for understanding aviation accidents. Furthermore, it introduces an ongoing project developing a nonlinear and prospective method that centralises distributed situation awareness and communication as themes. The relevance of findings are discussed in the context of current ergonomic and aviation issues of design, training and human-system interaction.

Extracting recurrent scenarios from narrative texts using a Bayesian network: application to serious occupational accidents with movement disturbance.

PubMed

Abdat, F; Leclercq, S; Cuny, X; Tissot, C

2014-09-01

A probabilistic approach has been developed to extract recurrent serious Occupational Accident with Movement Disturbance (OAMD) scenarios from narrative texts within a prevention framework. Relevant data extracted from 143 accounts was initially coded as logical combinations of generic accident factors. A Bayesian Network (BN)-based model was then built for OAMDs using these data and expert knowledge. A data clustering process was subsequently performed to group the OAMDs into similar classes from generic factor occurrence and pattern standpoints. Finally, the Most Probable Explanation (MPE) was evaluated and identified as the associated recurrent scenario for each class. Using this approach, 8 scenarios were extracted to describe 143 OAMDs in the construction and metallurgy sectors. Their recurrent nature is discussed. Probable generic factor combinations provide a fair representation of particularly serious OAMDs, as described in narrative texts. This work represents a real contribution to raising company awareness of the variety of circumstances, in which these accidents occur, to progressing in the prevention of such accidents and to developing an analysis framework dedicated to this kind of accident. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bilateral cerebrovascular accidents in incontinentia pigmenti.

PubMed

Fiorillo, Loretta; Sinclair, D Barry; O'Byrne, Mary L; Krol, Alfons L

2003-07-01

Incontinentia Pigmenti is an X-linked dominant neurocutaneous disorder with central nervous system manifestations in 30% of cases, including seizures and mental retardation. Ischemic or hemorrhagic cerebrovascular accidents have been reported rarely in incontinentia pigmenti. Chart review and literature search was performed following identification of the index case. We describe a patient with incontinentia pigmenti who developed bilateral cerebrovascular accidents in the neonatal period, with resultant severe neurologic sequelae. This is the second reported case of bilateral cerebrovascular accidents in a patient with incontinentia pigmenti. This finding may be secondary to cerebrovascular anomalies, similar to those observed in the retina. Recognition of cerebrovascular accidents as a complication of incontinentia pigmenti will hopefully lead to earlier recognition and treatment.

Performance of U3Si2 Fuel in a Reactivity Insertion Accident

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cheng, Lap Y.; Cuadra, Arantxa; Todosow, Michael

In this study we examined the performance of the U3Si2 fuel cladded with Zircaloy (Zr) in a reactivity insertion accident (RIA) in a PWR core. The power excursion as a result of a $1 reactivity insertion was calculated by a TRACE PWR plant model using point-kinetics, for alternative cores with UO2 and U3Si2 fuel assemblies. The point-kinetics parameters (feedback coefficients, prompt-neutron lifetime and group constants for six delayed-neutron groups) were obtained from beginning-of-cycle equilibrium full core calculations with PARCS. In the PARCS core calculations, the few-group parameters were developed utilizing the TRITON/NEWT tools in the SCALE package. In order tomore » assess the fuel response in finer detail (e.g. the maximum fuel temperature) the power shape and thermal boundary conditions from the TRACE/PARCS calculations were used to drive a BISON model of a fuel pin with U3Si2 and UO2 respectively. For a $1 reactivity transient both TRACE and BISON predicted a higher maximum fuel temperature for the UO2 fuel than the U3Si2 fuel. Furthermore, BISON is noted to calculate a narrower gap and a higher gap heat transfer coefficient than TRACE. This resulted in BISON predicting consistently lower fuel temperatures than TRACE. This study also provides a systematic comparison between TRACE and BISON using consistent transient boundary conditions. The TRACE analysis of the RIA only reflects the core-wide response in power. A refinement to the analysis would be to predict the local peaking in a three-dimensional core as a result of control rod ejection.« less

An expert system for the quantification of fault rates in construction fall accidents.

PubMed

Talat Birgonul, M; Dikmen, Irem; Budayan, Cenk; Demirel, Tuncay

2016-01-01

Expert witness reports, prepared with the aim of quantifying fault rates among parties, play an important role in a court's final decision. However, conflicting fault rates assigned by different expert witness boards lead to iterative objections raised by the related parties. This unfavorable situation mainly originates due to the subjectivity of expert judgments and unavailability of objective information about the causes of accidents. As a solution to this shortcoming, an expert system based on a rule-based system was developed for the quantification of fault rates in construction fall accidents. The aim of developing DsSafe is decreasing the subjectivity inherent in expert witness reports. Eighty-four inspection reports prepared by the official and authorized inspectors were examined and root causes of construction fall accidents in Turkey were identified. Using this information, an evaluation form was designed and submitted to the experts. Experts were asked to evaluate the importance level of the factors that govern fall accidents and determine the fault rates under different scenarios. Based on expert judgments, a rule-based expert system was developed. The accuracy and reliability of DsSafe were tested with real data as obtained from finalized court cases. DsSafe gives satisfactory results.

A new method for assessing the risk of accident associated with darkness.

PubMed

Johansson, Osten; Wanvik, Per Ole; Elvik, Rune

2009-07-01

This paper presents a new method for assessing the risk of accidents associated with darkness. The method estimates the risk of accident associated with darkness in terms of an odds ratio, which is defined as follows: [(number of accidents in darkness in a given hour of the day)/(number of accidents in daylight in the same hour of the day)]/[(Number of accidents in a given comparison hour when the case hour is dark)/(Number of accidents in a given comparison hour when the case hour is in daylight)]. This estimate of the risk of accident associated with darkness does not require data on exposure, but relies on the count of accidents in the same pair of hours throughout the year. One of the hours is dark part of the year, but has daylight the rest of the year. The comparison hour, which has daylight the whole year, is used to control for seasonal variations. The aim of relying on the same pair of hours throughout the year is to minimise the influence of potentially confounding factors. Estimates of the risk of injury accidents associated with darkness are developed on the basis of accident data for Norway, Sweden and the Netherlands. It is found that the risk of an injury accident increases by nearly 30% in darkness in urban areas, by nearly 50% in rural areas, and by about 40% for urban and rural areas combined (adjusted estimate).

[Trends in traffic accident mortality in Spain, 1962-1994].

PubMed

Redondo Calderón, J; Luna Del Castillo, J D; Jiménez Moleón, J J; Lardelli Claret, P; Gálvez Vargas, R

2000-01-01

To assess the evolution of the traffic accident mortality rate in Spain from 1962 to 1994, and the role played by its four theoretical components: motorization index (vehicles/population), accidentability index (accidents/vehicles), harmfulness index (victims/accidents) and fatality index (deaths/victims). Data from the National Population Census and the Bulletin of the Dirección General de Tráfico were collected to estimate the above mentioned indicators for all accidents and accidents in road and urban zones. Simple and multiple partial correlation coefficients among variables were calculated. Poisson regression models were also obtained. An increasing trend during the whole period was observed for the national traffic accident mortality rate, especially from 1982 to 1989 in the younger age groups, followed by a decrease since 1990. The aforementioned four components were significatively associated with the mortality rate. The strength of this association was especially high for the motorization index and for the harmfulness index when all accidents and road accidents were considered. For urban accidents, the fatality index rate is the component most strongly associated with mortality rate. The role played by the accidentability index in the magnitude of the mortality rate seems less important. The growing exposure rate to traffic accidents observed in Spain (measured by the motorization index) is not directly influenced by public heath strategies. Therefore, it seems advisable to emphasize the development of measures focused to control the other three components of traffic accident mortality rate, especially those related with harmfulness and fatality.

Study on the Accident-causing of Foundation Pit Engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shuicheng, Tian; Xinyue, Zhang; Pengfei, Yang; Longgang, Chen

2018-05-01

With the development of high-rise buildings and underground space, a large number of foundation pit projects have occurred. Frequent accidents of it cause great losses to the society, how to reduce the frequency of pit accidents has become one of the most urgent problems to be solved. Therefore, analysing the influencing factors of foundation pit engineering accidents and studying the causes of foundation pit accidents, which of great significance for improving the safety management level of foundation pit engineering and reducing the incidence of foundation pit accidents. Firstly, based on literature review and questionnaires, this paper selected construction management, survey, design, construction, supervision and monitoring as research factors, we used the AHP method and the Dematel method to analyze the weights of various influencing factors to screen indicators to determine the ultimate system of accidents caused by foundation pit accidents; Secondly, SPSS 21.0 software was used to test the reliability and validity of the recovered questionnaire data. AMOS 7.0 software was used to fit, evaluate, and explain the set model; Finally, this paper analysed the influencing factors of foundation pit engineering accidents, corresponding management countermeasures and suggestions were put forward.

Construction of a technique plan repository and evaluation system based on AHP group decision-making for emergency treatment and disposal in chemical pollution accidents.

PubMed

Shi, Shenggang; Cao, Jingcan; Feng, Li; Liang, Wenyan; Zhang, Liqiu

2014-07-15

The environmental pollution resulting from chemical accidents has caused increasingly serious concerns. Therefore, it is very important to be able to determine in advance the appropriate emergency treatment and disposal technology for different types of chemical accidents. However, the formulation of an emergency plan for chemical pollution accidents is considerably difficult due to the substantial uncertainty and complexity of such accidents. This paper explains how the event tree method was used to create 54 different scenarios for chemical pollution accidents, based on the polluted medium, dangerous characteristics and properties of chemicals involved. For each type of chemical accident, feasible emergency treatment and disposal technology schemes were established, considering the areas of pollution source control, pollutant non-proliferation, contaminant elimination and waste disposal. Meanwhile, in order to obtain the optimum emergency disposal technology schemes as soon as the chemical pollution accident occurs from the plan repository, the technique evaluation index system was developed based on group decision-improved analytical hierarchy process (AHP), and has been tested by using a sudden aniline pollution accident that occurred in a river in December 2012. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

French policy for managing the post-accident phase of a nuclear accident.

PubMed

Gallay, F; Godet, J L; Niel, J C

2015-06-01

In 2005, at the request of the French Government, the Nuclear Safety Authority (ASN) established a Steering Committee for the Management of the Post-Accident Phase of a Nuclear Accident or a Radiological Emergency, with the objective of establishing a policy framework. Under the supervision of ASN, this Committee, involving several tens of experts from different backgrounds (e.g. relevant ministerial offices, expert agencies, local information commissions around nuclear installations, non-governmental organisations, elected officials, licensees, and international experts), developed a number of recommendations over a 7-year period. First published in November 2012, these recommendations cover the immediate post-emergency situation, and the transition and longer-term periods of the post-accident phase in the case of medium-scale nuclear accidents causing short-term radioactive release (less than 24 h) that might occur at French nuclear facilities. They also apply to actions to be undertaken in the event of accidents during the transportation of radioactive materials. These recommendations are an important first step in preparation for the management of a post-accident situation in France in the case of a nuclear accident. © The Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers 2014.

Predicting Fog in the Nocturnal Boundary Layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Izett, Jonathan; van de Wiel, Bas; Baas, Peter; van der Linden, Steven; van Hooft, Antoon; Bosveld, Fred

2017-04-01

Fog is a global phenomenon that presents a hazard to navigation and human safety, resulting in significant economic impacts for air and shipping industries as well as causing numerous road traffic accidents. Accurate prediction of fog events, however, remains elusive both in terms of timing and occurrence itself. Statistical methods based on set threshold criteria for key variables such as wind speed have been developed, but high rates of correct prediction of fog events still lead to similarly high "false alarms" when the conditions appear favourable, but no fog forms. Using data from the CESAR meteorological observatory in the Netherlands, we analyze specific cases and perform statistical analyses of event climatology, in order to identify the necessary conditions for correct prediction of fog. We also identify potential "missing ingredients" in current analysis that could help to reduce the number of false alarms. New variables considered include the indicators of boundary layer stability, as well as the presence of aerosols conducive to droplet formation. The poster presents initial findings of new research as well as plans for continued research.

Longitudinal Associations Between PTSD Symptoms and Dyadic Conflict Communication Following a Severe Motor Vehicle Accident.

PubMed

Fredman, Steffany J; Beck, J Gayle; Shnaider, Philippe; Le, Yunying; Pukay-Martin, Nicole D; Pentel, Kimberly Z; Monson, Candice M; Simon, Naomi M; Marques, Luana

2017-03-01

There are well-documented associations between posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms and intimate relationship impairments, including dysfunctional communication at times of relationship conflict. To date, the extant research on the associations between PTSD symptom severity and conflict communication has been cross-sectional and focused on military and veteran couples. No published work has evaluated the extent to which PTSD symptom severity and communication at times of relationship conflict influence each other over time or in civilian samples. The current study examined the prospective bidirectional associations between PTSD symptom severity and dyadic conflict communication in a sample of 114 severe motor vehicle accident (MVA) survivors in a committed intimate relationship at the time of the accident. PTSD symptom severity and dyadic conflict communication were assessed at 4 and 16weeks post-MVA, and prospective associations were examined using path analysis. Total PTSD symptom severity at 4weeks prospectively predicted greater dysfunctional communication at 16weeks post-MVA but not vice versa. Examination at the level of PTSD symptom clusters revealed that effortful avoidance at 4weeks prospectively predicted greater dysfunctional communication at 16weeks, whereas dysfunctional communication 4weeks after the MVA predicted more severe emotional numbing at 16weeks. Findings highlight the role of PTSD symptoms in contributing to dysfunctional communication and the importance of considering PTSD symptom clusters separately when investigating the dynamic interplay between PTSD symptoms and relationship functioning over time, particularly during the early posttrauma period. Clinical implications for the prevention of chronic PTSD and associated relationship problems are discussed. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Qualification of CASMO5 / SIMULATE-3K against the SPERT-III E-core cold start-up experiments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grandi, G.; Moberg, L.

SIMULATE-3K is a three-dimensional kinetic code applicable to LWR Reactivity Initiated Accidents. S3K has been used to calculate several international recognized benchmarks. However, the feedback models in the benchmark exercises are different from the feedback models that SIMULATE-3K uses for LWR reactors. For this reason, it is worth comparing the SIMULATE-3K capabilities for Reactivity Initiated Accidents against kinetic experiments. The Special Power Excursion Reactor Test III was a pressurized-water, nuclear-research facility constructed to analyze the reactor kinetic behavior under initial conditions similar to those of commercial LWRs. The SPERT III E-core resembles a PWR in terms of fuel type, moderator,more » coolant flow rate, and system pressure. The initial test conditions (power, core flow, system pressure, core inlet temperature) are representative of cold start-up, hot start-up, hot standby, and hot full power. The qualification of S3K against the SPERT III E-core measurements is an ongoing work at Studsvik. In this paper, the results for the 30 cold start-up tests are presented. The results show good agreement with the experiments for the reactivity initiated accident main parameters: peak power, energy release and compensated reactivity. Predicted and measured peak powers differ at most by 13%. Measured and predicted reactivity compensations at the time of the peak power differ less than 0.01 $. Predicted and measured energy release differ at most by 13%. All differences are within the experimental uncertainty. (authors)« less

Frequency of Specific Categories of Aviation Accidents and Incidents During 2001-2010

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Evans, Joni K.

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the types of accidents or incidents that are most important to the aviation safety risk. All accidents and incidents from 2001-2010 were assigned occurrence categories based on the taxonomy developed by the Commercial Aviation Safety Team/International Civil Aviation Organization (CAST/ICAO) Common Taxonomy Team (CICTT). The most frequently recorded categories were selected within each of five metrics: total accidents, fatal accidents, total injuries, fatal injuries and total incidents. This analysis was done separately for events within Part 121, Scheduled Part 135, Non-Scheduled Part 135 and Part 91. Combining those five sets of categories resulted in groups of between seven and eleven occurrence categories, depending on the flight operation. These groups represent 65-85% of all accidents and 68-81% of incidents.

SESAME: a software tool for the numerical dosimetric reconstruction of radiological accidents involving external sources and its application to the accident in Chile in December 2005.

PubMed

Huet, C; Lemosquet, A; Clairand, I; Rioual, J B; Franck, D; de Carlan, L; Aubineau-Lanièce, I; Bottollier-Depois, J F

2009-01-01

Estimating the dose distribution in a victim's body is a relevant indicator in assessing biological damage from exposure in the event of a radiological accident caused by an external source. This dose distribution can be assessed by physical dosimetric reconstruction methods. Physical dosimetric reconstruction can be achieved using experimental or numerical techniques. This article presents the laboratory-developed SESAME--Simulation of External Source Accident with MEdical images--tool specific to dosimetric reconstruction of radiological accidents through numerical simulations which combine voxel geometry and the radiation-material interaction MCNP(X) Monte Carlo computer code. The experimental validation of the tool using a photon field and its application to a radiological accident in Chile in December 2005 are also described.

Severe accidents in the energy sector: comparative perspective.

PubMed

Hirschberg, Stefan; Burgherr, Peter; Spiekerman, Gerard; Dones, Roberto

2004-07-26

This paper addresses one of the controversial issues in the current comparative studies of the environmental and health impacts of energy systems, i.e. the treatment of severe accidents. The work covers technical aspects of severe accidents and thus primarily reflects an engineering perspective on the energy-related risk issues, though some social implications are also touched upon. The assessment concerns fossil energy sources (coal, oil and gas), nuclear power and hydro power. The scope is not limited to the power production (conversion) step of these energy chains but, whenever applicable, also includes exploration, extraction, transports, processing, storage and waste disposal. With the exception of the nuclear chain the focus of the work has been on the evaluation of the historical experience of accidents. The basis used for this evaluation is a comprehensive database ENSAD (Energy-related Severe Accident Database), established by the Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI). For hypothetical nuclear accidents the probabilistic technique has also been employed and extended to cover the assessment of economic consequences of such accidents. The broader picture obtained by coverage of full energy chains leads on the world-wide basis to aggregated immediate fatality rates being much higher for the fossil chains than what one would expect if only power plants were considered. Generally, the immediate fatality rates are for all considered energy carriers significantly higher for the non-OECD countries than for OECD countries. In the case of hydro and nuclear the difference is in fact dramatic. The presentation of results is not limited to the aggregated values specific for each energy chain. Also frequency-consequence curves are provided. They reflect implicitly the ranking based on the aggregated values but include also such information as the observed or predicted chain-specific maximum extents of damages. This perspective on severe accidents may lead to different system rankings, depending on the individual risk aversion.

Persistence of airline accidents.

PubMed

Barros, Carlos Pestana; Faria, Joao Ricardo; Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko

2010-10-01

This paper expands on air travel accident research by examining the relationship between air travel accidents and airline traffic or volume in the period from 1927-2006. The theoretical model is based on a representative airline company that aims to maximise its profits, and it utilises a fractional integration approach in order to determine whether there is a persistent pattern over time with respect to air accidents and air traffic. Furthermore, the paper analyses how airline accidents are related to traffic using a fractional cointegration approach. It finds that airline accidents are persistent and that a (non-stationary) fractional cointegration relationship exists between total airline accidents and airline passengers, airline miles and airline revenues, with shocks that affect the long-run equilibrium disappearing in the very long term. Moreover, this relation is negative, which might be due to the fact that air travel is becoming safer and there is greater competition in the airline industry. Policy implications are derived for countering accident events, based on competition and regulation. © 2010 The Author(s). Journal compilation © Overseas Development Institute, 2010.

Root causes and impacts of severe accidents at large nuclear power plants.

PubMed

Högberg, Lars

2013-04-01

The root causes and impacts of three severe accidents at large civilian nuclear power plants are reviewed: the Three Mile Island accident in 1979, the Chernobyl accident in 1986, and the Fukushima Daiichi accident in 2011. Impacts include health effects, evacuation of contaminated areas as well as cost estimates and impacts on energy policies and nuclear safety work in various countries. It is concluded that essential objectives for reactor safety work must be: (1) to prevent accidents from developing into severe core damage, even if they are initiated by very unlikely natural or man-made events, and, recognizing that accidents with severe core damage may nevertheless occur; (2) to prevent large-scale and long-lived ground contamination by limiting releases of radioactive nuclides such as cesium to less than about 100 TBq. To achieve these objectives the importance of maintaining high global standards of safety management and safety culture cannot be emphasized enough. All three severe accidents discussed in this paper had their root causes in system deficiencies indicative of poor safety management and poor safety culture in both the nuclear industry and government authorities.

Benchmarking MARS (accident management software) with the Browns Ferry fire

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dawson, S.M.; Liu, L.Y.; Raines, J.C.

1992-01-01

The MAAP Accident Response System (MARS) is a userfriendly computer software developed to provide management and engineering staff with the most needed insights, during actual or simulated accidents, of the current and future conditions of the plant based on current plant data and its trends. To demonstrate the reliability of the MARS code in simulatng a plant transient, MARS is being benchmarked with the available reactor pressure vessel (RPV) pressure and level data from the Browns Ferry fire. The MRS software uses the Modular Accident Analysis Program (MAAP) code as its basis to calculate plant response under accident conditions. MARSmore » uses a limited set of plant data to initialize and track the accidnt progression. To perform this benchmark, a simulated set of plant data was constructed based on actual report data containing the information necessary to initialize MARS and keep track of plant system status throughout the accident progression. The initial Browns Ferry fire data were produced by performing a MAAP run to simulate the accident. The remaining accident simulation used actual plant data.« less

Estimating Driving Performance Based on EEG Spectrum Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Chin-Teng; Wu, Ruei-Cheng; Jung, Tzyy-Ping; Liang, Sheng-Fu; Huang, Teng-Yi

2005-12-01

The growing number of traffic accidents in recent years has become a serious concern to society. Accidents caused by driver's drowsiness behind the steering wheel have a high fatality rate because of the marked decline in the driver's abilities of perception, recognition, and vehicle control abilities while sleepy. Preventing such accidents caused by drowsiness is highly desirable but requires techniques for continuously detecting, estimating, and predicting the level of alertness of drivers and delivering effective feedbacks to maintain their maximum performance. This paper proposes an EEG-based drowsiness estimation system that combines electroencephalogram (EEG) log subband power spectrum, correlation analysis, principal component analysis, and linear regression models to indirectly estimate driver's drowsiness level in a virtual-reality-based driving simulator. Our results demonstrated that it is feasible to accurately estimate quantitatively driving performance, expressed as deviation between the center of the vehicle and the center of the cruising lane, in a realistic driving simulator.

SBLOCA outside containment at Browns Ferry Unit One: accident sequence analysis. [Small break

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Condon, W.A.; Harrington, R.M.; Greene, S.R.

1982-11-01

This study describes the predicted response of Unit 1 at the Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant to a postulated small-break loss-of-coolant accident outside of the primary containment. The break has been assumed to occur in the scram discharge volume piping immediately following a reactor scram that cannot be reset. The events before core uncovering are discussed for both the worst-case accident sequence without operator action and for the more likely sequences with operator action. Without operator action, the events after core uncovering would include core meltdown and subsequent containment failure, and this event sequence has been determined through use of themore » MARCH code. An estimate of the magnitude and timing of the concomitant release of the noble gas, cesium, and iodine-based fission products to the environment is provided in Volume 2 of this report.« less

Integrated Speed Limiter and Fatigue Analyzer System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pranoto, Hadi; Leman, A. M.; Wahab, Abdi; Sebayang, Darwin

2018-03-01

The traffic accident increase in line with the growth of the vehicle, so the safety system must be developed to decrease the accident. This paper will purpose the integrated between speed limiter and fatigue analyser to improve the safety for vehicle, and also to analyse if there is an accident. The device and the software or application are developed and then integrated into one system. The testing held to prove the integrated between device and the application, and it show the system can work well. The next improvement for this system can be developing the server to collect data from internet, so the driver and the vehicle owner can monitor the system by internet.

Introduction of the Space Shuttle Columbia Accident, Investigation Details, Findings and Crew Survival Investigation Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chandler, Michael

2010-01-01

As the Space Shuttle Program comes to an end, it is important that the lessons learned from the Columbia accident be captured and understood by those who will be developing future aerospace programs and supporting current programs. Aeromedical lessons learned from the Accident were presented at AsMA in 2005. This Panel will update that information, closeout the lessons learned, provide additional information on the accident and provide suggestions for the future. To set the stage, an overview of the accident is required. The Space Shuttle Columbia was returning to Earth with a crew of seven astronauts on 1Feb, 2003. It disintegrated along a track extending from California to Louisiana and observers along part of the track filmed the breakup of Columbia. Debris was recovered from Littlefield, Texas to Fort Polk, Louisiana, along a 567 statute mile track; the largest ever recorded debris field. The Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB) concluded its investigation in August 2003, and released their findings in a report published in February 2004. NASA recognized the importance of capturing the lessons learned from the loss of Columbia and her crew and the Space Shuttle Program managers commissioned the Spacecraft Crew Survival Integrated Investigation Team (SCSIIT) to accomplish this. Their task was to perform a comprehensive analysis of the accident, focusing on factors and events affecting crew survival, and to develop recommendations for improving crew survival, including the design features, equipment, training and procedures intended to protect the crew. NASA released the Columbia Crew Survival Investigation Report in December 2008. Key personnel have been assembled to give you an overview of the Space Shuttle Columbia accident, the medical response, the medico-legal issues, the SCSIIT findings and recommendations and future NASA flight surgeon spacecraft accident response training. Educational Objectives: Set the stage for the Panel to address the investigation, medico-legal issues, the Spacecraft Crew Survival Integrated Investigation Team report and training for accident response.

Accidents with biological material among undergraduate nursing students in a public Brazilian university.

PubMed

Reis, Renata Karina; Gir, Elucir; Canini, Silvia Rita M S

2004-02-01

During their academic activities, undergraduate nursing students are exposed to contamination by bloodborne pathogens, as well as by others found in body fluids, among which are the Human Immunodeficiency (HIV), Hepatitis B and C viruses. We developed a profile of victimized students, characterizing accidents with biological material occurring among undergraduate nursing students at a public university in São Paulo State, Brazil. We identified the main causes and evaluated the conduct adopted by students and their reactions and thoughts concerning the accidents. Seventy-two accidents were identified, of which 17% involved potentially contaminated biological material. Needles were the predominant cause of accidents. The most frequently involved topographic areas were the fingers. Only five students reported the accidents and sought medical care. Among these, two students were advised to begin prophylactic treatment against HIV infection by means of antiretroviral drugs. It was found that the risk of accidents is underestimated and that strategies such as formal teaching and continual training are necessary in order to make students aware of biosafety measures.

Design and application of a tool for structuring, capitalizing and making more accessible information and lessons learned from accidents involving machinery.

PubMed

Sadeghi, Samira; Sadeghi, Leyla; Tricot, Nicolas; Mathieu, Luc

2017-12-01

Accident reports are published in order to communicate the information and lessons learned from accidents. An efficient accident recording and analysis system is a necessary step towards improvement of safety. However, currently there is a shortage of efficient tools to support such recording and analysis. In this study we introduce a flexible and customizable tool that allows structuring and analysis of this information. This tool has been implemented under TEEXMA®. We named our prototype TEEXMA®SAFETY. This tool provides an information management system to facilitate data collection, organization, query, analysis and reporting of accidents. A predefined information retrieval module provides ready access to data which allows the user to quickly identify the possible hazards for specific machines and provides information on the source of hazards. The main target audience for this tool includes safety personnel, accident reporters and designers. The proposed data model has been developed by analyzing different accident reports.

Identifying black swans in NextGen: predicting human performance in off-nominal conditions.

PubMed

Wickens, Christopher D; Hooey, Becky L; Gore, Brian F; Sebok, Angelia; Koenicke, Corey S

2009-10-01

The objective is to validate a computational model of visual attention against empirical data--derived from a meta-analysis--of pilots' failure to notice safety-critical unexpected events. Many aircraft accidents have resulted, in part, because of failure to notice nonsalient unexpected events outside of foveal vision, illustrating the phenomenon of change blindness. A model of visual noticing, N-SEEV (noticing-salience, expectancy, effort, and value), was developed to predict these failures. First, 25 studies that reported objective data on miss rate for unexpected events in high-fidelity cockpit simulations were identified, and their miss rate data pooled across five variables (phase of flight, event expectancy, event location, presence of a head-up display, and presence of a highway-in-the-sky display). Second, the parameters of the N-SEEV model were tailored to mimic these dichotomies. The N-SEEV model output predicted variance in the obtained miss rate (r = .73). The individual miss rates of all six dichotomous conditions were predicted within 14%, and four of these were predicted within 7%. The N-SEEV model, developed on the basis of an independent data set, was able to successfully predict variance in this safety-critical measure of pilot response to abnormal circumstances, as collected from the literature. As new technology and procedures are envisioned for the future airspace, it is important to predict if these may compromise safety in terms of pilots' failing to notice unexpected events. Computational models such as N-SEEV support cost-effective means of making such predictions.

Health status recovery at one year in children injured in a road accident: a cohort study.

PubMed

Batailler, Pierre; Hours, Martine; Maza, Maud; Charnay, Pierrette; Tardy, Hélène; Tournier, Charlène; Javouhey, Etienne

2014-10-01

Despite the frequency of traumatic injuries due to road accidents and potential importance of identifying children at risk of impaired recovery one year after a road accident, there is a lack of data on long-term recovery of health status, except in children with severe traumatic brain injury. The aim of the present study was to evaluate predictive factors of recovery in children one year after road traffic injuries. The prospective cohort study was composed of children aged <16 years, admitted to public or private sector hospitals in the Rhône administrative area of France following a road accident. Recovery of health status one year after the accident and information concerning quality of life and the consequences of the accident for the child or family 1 year after the accident were collected by questionnaire, usually completed by the parents. Victims were in majority male (64.6%) and had mild or moderate injuries (81.9% with Maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale (M-AIS) <3). One year after the accident, 75.0% of the mild-to-moderate and 34.8% of the severe cases estimated health status as fully recovered. After adjustment, severity score (M-AIS≥3) and lower limb injury (AIS>1) were associated with incomplete recovery of health status: weighted odds ratio (ORw), 4.3 [95% confidence interval (95% CI), 1.3-14.6] and ORw, 6.5 [95% CI, 1.9-21.7], respectively. Recovery status correlated significantly with quality of life physical scores (r=0.46), especially body pain (r=0.48) and role/social-physical (r=0.50) and, to a lesser extent, quality of life psychosocial scores (r=0.21). In a cohort of children injured in a road accident, those with high injury severity score and those with lower limb injuries are less likely to recover full health status by 1 year. Impaired health status was associated with a lower physical quality of life score at 1 year. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Development and Validation of Accident Models for FeCrAl Cladding

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gamble, Kyle Allan Lawrence; Hales, Jason Dean

2016-08-01

The purpose of this milestone report is to present the work completed in regards to material model development for FeCrAl cladding and highlight the results of applying these models to Loss of Coolant Accidents (LOCA) and Station Blackouts (SBO). With the limited experimental data available (essentially only the data used to create the models) true validation is not possible. In the absence of another alternative, qualitative comparisons during postulated accident scenarios between FeCrAl and Zircaloy-4 cladded rods have been completed demonstrating the superior performance of FeCrAl.

Using Immersive Virtual Reality to Reduce Work Accidents in Developing Countries.

PubMed

Nedel, Luciana; de Souza, Vinicius Costa; Menin, Aline; Sebben, Lucia; Oliveira, Jackson; Faria, Frederico; Maciel, Anderson

2016-01-01

Thousands of people die or are injured in work accidents every year. Although the lack of safety equipment is one of the causes, especially in developing countries, behavioral issues caused by psychosocial factors are also to blame. This article introduces the use of immersive VR simulators to preventively reduce accidents in the workplace by detecting behavioral patterns that may lead to an increased predisposition to risk exposure. The system simulates day-to-day situations, analyzes user reactions, and classifies the behaviors according to four psychosocial groups. The results of a user study support the effectiveness of this approach.

Aviation Safety Program: Weather Accident Prevention (WxAP) Development of WxAP System Architecture And Concepts of Operation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grantier, David

2003-01-01

This paper presents viewgraphs on the development of the Weather Accident Prevention (WxAP) System architecture and Concept of Operation (CONOPS) activities. The topics include: 1) Background Information on System Architecture/CONOPS Activity; 2) Activity Work in Progress; and 3) Anticipated By-Products.

Formulating accident occurrence as a survival process.

PubMed

Chang, H L; Jovanis, P P

1990-10-01

A conceptual framework for accident occurrence is developed based on the principle of the driver as an information processor. The framework underlies the development of a modeling approach that is consistent with the definition of exposure to risk as a repeated trial. Survival theory is proposed as a statistical technique that is consistent with the conceptual structure and allows the exploration of a wide range of factors that contribute to highway operating risk. This survival model of accident occurrence is developed at a disaggregate level, allowing safety researchers to broaden the scope of studies which may be limited by the use of traditional aggregate approaches. An application of the approach to motor carrier safety is discussed as are potential applications to a variety of transportation industries. Lastly, a typology of highway safety research methodologies is developed to compare the properties of four safety methodologies: laboratory experiments, on-the-road studies, multidisciplinary accident investigations, and correlational studies. The survival theory formulation has a mathematical structure that is compatible with each safety methodology, so it may facilitate the integration of findings across methodologies.

Motion perception tasks as potential correlates to driving difficulty in the elderly

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raghuram, A.; Lakshminarayanan, V.

2006-09-01

Changes in the demographics indicates that the population older than 65 is on the rise because of the aging of the ‘baby boom’ generation. This aging trend and driving related accident statistics reveal the need for procedures and tests that would assess the driving ability of older adults and predict whether they would be safe or unsafe drivers. Literature shows that an attention based test called the useful field of view (UFOV) was a significant predictor of accident rates compared to any other visual function tests. The present study evaluates a qualitative trend on using motion perception tasks as a potential visual perceptual correlates in screening elderly drivers who might have difficulty in driving. Data was collected from 15 older subjects with a mean age of 71. Motion perception tasks included—speed discrimination with radial and lamellar motion, time to collision using prediction motion and estimating direction of heading. A motion index score was calculated which was indicative of performance on all of the above-mentioned motion tasks. Scores on visual attention was assessed using UFOV. A driving habit questionnaire was also administered for a self report on the driving difficulties and accident rates. A qualitative trend based on frequency distributions show that thresholds on the motion perception tasks are successful in identifying subjects who reported to have had difficulty in certain aspects of driving and had accidents. Correlation between UFOV and motion index scores was not significant indicating that probably different aspects of visual information processing that are crucial to driving behaviour are being tapped by these two paradigms. UFOV and motion perception tasks together can be a better predictor for identifying at risk or safe drivers than just using either one of them.

Testing prediction capabilities of an 131I terrestrial transport model by using measurements collected at the Hanford nuclear facility.

PubMed

Apostoaei, A Iulian

2005-05-01

A model describing transport of 131I in the environment was developed by SENES Oak Ridge, Inc., for assessment of radiation doses and excess lifetime risk from 131I atmospheric releases from Oak Ridge Reservation in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, and from Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory in southeast Idaho. This paper describes the results of an exercise designed to test the reliability of this model and to identify the main sources of uncertainty in doses and risks estimated by this model. The testing of the model was based on materials published by the International Atomic Energy Agency BIOMASS program, specifically environmental data collected after the release into atmosphere of 63 curies of 131I during 2-5 September 1963, after an accident at the Hanford PUREX Chemical Separations Plant, in Hanford, Washington. Measurements of activity in air, vegetation, and milk were collected in nine counties around Hanford during the first couple of months after the accident. The activity of 131I in the thyroid glands of two children was measured 47 d after the accident. The model developed by SENES Oak Ridge, Inc., was used to estimate concentrations of 131I in environmental media, thyroid doses for the general population, and the activity of 131I in thyroid glands of the two children. Predicted concentrations of 131I in pasture grass and milk and thyroid doses were compared with similar estimates produced by other modelers. The SENES model was also used to estimate excess lifetime risk of thyroid cancer due to the September 1963 releases of 131I from Hanford. The SENES model was first calibrated and then applied to all locations of interest around Hanford without fitting the model parameters to a given location. Predictions showed that the SENES model reproduces satisfactorily the time-dependent and the time-integrated measured concentrations in vegetation and milk, and provides reliable estimates of 131I activity in thyroids of children. SENES model generated concentrations of 131I closer to observed concentrations, as compared to the predictions produced with other models. The inter-model comparison showed that variation of thyroid doses among all participating models (SENES model included) was a factor of 3 for the general population, but a factor of 10 for the two studied children. As opposed to other models, SENES model allows a complete analysis of uncertainties in every predicted quantity, including estimated thyroid doses and risk of thyroid cancer. The uncertainties in the risk-per-unit-dose and the dose-per-unit-intake coefficients are major contributors to the uncertainty in the estimated lifetime risk and thyroid dose, respectively. The largest contributors to the uncertainty in the estimated concentration in milk are the feed-to-milk transfer factor (F(m)), the dry deposition velocity (V(d)), and the mass interception factor (r/Y)dry for the elemental form of iodine (I2). Exposure to the 1963 PUREX/Hanford accident produced low doses and risks for people living at the studied locations. The upper 97.5th percentile of the excess lifetime risk of thyroid cancer for the most extreme situations is about 10(-4). Measurements in pasture grass and milk at all locations around Hanford indicate a very low transfer of 131I from pasture to cow's milk (e.g., a feed-to-milk transfer coefficient, F(m), for commercial cows of about 0.0022 d L(-1)). These values are towards the low end of F(m) values measured elsewhere and they are low compared to the F(m) values used in other dose reconstruction studies, including the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction.

Prediction of Return-to-original-work after an Industrial Accident Using Machine Learning and Comparison of Techniques

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Background Many studies have tried to develop predictors for return-to-work (RTW). However, since complex factors have been demonstrated to predict RTW, it is difficult to use them practically. This study investigated whether factors used in previous studies could predict whether an individual had returned to his/her original work by four years after termination of the worker's recovery period. Methods An initial logistic regression analysis of 1,567 participants of the fourth Panel Study of Worker's Compensation Insurance yielded odds ratios. The participants were divided into two subsets, a training dataset and a test dataset. Using the training dataset, logistic regression, decision tree, random forest, and support vector machine models were established, and important variables of each model were identified. The predictive abilities of the different models were compared. Results The analysis showed that only earned income and company-related factors significantly affected return-to-original-work (RTOW). The random forest model showed the best accuracy among the tested machine learning models; however, the difference was not prominent. Conclusion It is possible to predict a worker's probability of RTOW using machine learning techniques with moderate accuracy. PMID:29736160

A Predictive Safety Management System Software Package Based on the Continuous Hazard Tracking and Failure Prediction Methodology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quintana, Rolando

2003-01-01

The goal of this research was to integrate a previously validated and reliable safety model, called Continuous Hazard Tracking and Failure Prediction Methodology (CHTFPM), into a software application. This led to the development of a safety management information system (PSMIS). This means that the theory or principles of the CHTFPM were incorporated in a software package; hence, the PSMIS is referred to as CHTFPM management information system (CHTFPM MIS). The purpose of the PSMIS is to reduce the time and manpower required to perform predictive studies as well as to facilitate the handling of enormous quantities of information in this type of studies. The CHTFPM theory encompasses the philosophy of looking at the concept of safety engineering from a new perspective: from a proactive, than a reactive, viewpoint. That is, corrective measures are taken before a problem instead of after it happened. That is why the CHTFPM is a predictive safety because it foresees or anticipates accidents, system failures and unacceptable risks; therefore, corrective action can be taken in order to prevent all these unwanted issues. Consequently, safety and reliability of systems or processes can be further improved by taking proactive and timely corrective actions.

Estimating Traffic Accidents in Turkey Using Differential Evolution Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akgüngör, Ali Payıdar; Korkmaz, Ersin

2017-06-01

Estimating traffic accidents play a vital role to apply road safety procedures. This study proposes Differential Evolution Algorithm (DEA) models to estimate the number of accidents in Turkey. In the model development, population (P) and the number of vehicles (N) are selected as model parameters. Three model forms, linear, exponential and semi-quadratic models, are developed using DEA with the data covering from 2000 to 2014. Developed models are statistically compared to select the best fit model. The results of the DE models show that the linear model form is suitable to estimate the number of accidents. The statistics of this form is better than other forms in terms of performance criteria which are the Mean Absolute Percentage Errors (MAPE) and the Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE). To investigate the performance of linear DE model for future estimations, a ten-year period from 2015 to 2024 is considered. The results obtained from future estimations reveal the suitability of DE method for road safety applications.

Child pedestrian supervision/guidance

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1983-01-01

The purpose of this study was to identify and evaluate the pedestrian accident risk associated with play activities performed in and near the street, as well as other situational characteristics, and to develop accident countermeasures emphasizing su...

[Psychological effects of road accidents: a challenge for public health].

PubMed

Waszkowska, Małgorzata; Merecz, Dorota

2006-01-01

The authors discuss psychological consequences of road accidents and the need for providing support for the victims and their families. The most common psychological effects include mental health problems, increased use of psychotropic drugs, and difficulty in performing occupational functions. Therefore, it is necessary to remodel the system of traffic safety and supplement it with a comprehensive system of support for both direct victims of accidents and their close relatives. To reach this goal, we need to develop optimal conditions for multidisciplinary research to investigate the effects of road accidents in Poland. This would make it possible to design effective psychological treatment and develop an institutional system for relevant support. However, some preventive measures can be taken right now, e.g., early intervention for severely injured victims during their hospital stay or providing support for non-injured victims and their families.

Another Approach to Enhance Airline Safety: Using Management Safety Tools

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lu, Chien-tsug; Wetmore, Michael; Przetak, Robert

2006-01-01

The ultimate goal of conducting an accident investigation is to prevent similar accidents from happening again and to make operations safer system-wide. Based on the findings extracted from the investigation, the "lesson learned" becomes a genuine part of the safety database making risk management available to safety analysts. The airline industry is no exception. In the US, the FAA has advocated the usage of the System Safety concept in enhancing safety since 2000. Yet, in today s usage of System Safety, the airline industry mainly focuses on risk management, which is a reactive process of the System Safety discipline. In order to extend the merit of System Safety and to prevent accidents beforehand, a specific System Safety tool needs to be applied; so a model of hazard prediction can be formed. To do so, the authors initiated this study by reviewing 189 final accident reports from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) covering FAR Part 121 scheduled operations. The discovered accident causes (direct hazards) were categorized into 10 groups Flight Operations, Ground Crew, Turbulence, Maintenance, Foreign Object Damage (FOD), Flight Attendant, Air Traffic Control, Manufacturer, Passenger, and Federal Aviation Administration. These direct hazards were associated with 36 root factors prepared for an error-elimination model using Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), a leading tool for System Safety experts. An FTA block-diagram model was created, followed by a probability simulation of accidents. Five case studies and reports were provided in order to fully demonstrate the usefulness of System Safety tools in promoting airline safety.

Comparing the Identification of Recommendations by Different Accident Investigators Using a Common Methodology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Chris W.; Oltedal, H. A.; Holloway, C. M.

2012-01-01

Accident reports play a key role in the safety of complex systems. These reports present the recommendations that are intended to help avoid any recurrence of past failures. However, the value of these findings depends upon the causal analysis that helps to identify the reasons why an accident occurred. Various techniques have been developed to help investigators distinguish root causes from contributory factors and contextual information. This paper presents the results from a study into the individual differences that can arise when a group of investigators independently apply the same technique to identify the causes of an accident. This work is important if we are to increase the consistency and coherence of investigations following major accidents.

Serum homocysteine levels in cerebrovascular accidents.

PubMed

Zongte, Zolianthanga; Shaini, L; Debbarma, Asis; Singh, Th Bhimo; Devi, S Bilasini; Singh, W Gyaneshwar

2008-04-01

Hyperhomocysteinemia has been considered an independent risk factor in the development of stroke. The present study was undertaken to evaluate serum homocysteine levels in patients with cerebrovascular accidents among the Manipuri population and to compare with the normal cases. Ninety-three cerebrovascular accident cases admitted in the hospital were enrolled for the study and twenty-seven age and sex matched individuals free from cerebrovascular diseases were taken as control group. Serum homocysteine levels were estimated by ELISA method using Axis homocysteine EIA kit manufactured by Ranbaxy Diagnostic Ltd. India. The finding suggests that hyperhomocysteinemia is associated with cerebrovascular accident with male preponderance, which increases with advancing age. However, whether hyperhomocysteinemia is the cause or the result of cerebrovascular accidents needs further investigations.

The practical application of mishap data in Army aircraft system safety programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Darrah, J. T., Jr.

1971-01-01

The means are discussed by which the the United States Army Board for Aviation Accident Research (USABAAR) now utilizes the vast store of historical accident data in the application of the system safety concept for developmental aircraft. USABAAR serves as the central agency for the Army Accident Prevention Program which includes the receipt, processing, and analysis of all data and information related to Army aircraft accident experience. It is pointed out that methods which served the cause of accident prevention so well in the past are no longer adequate and that traditional parameters used to measure mishap experience have become obsolete. USABAAR has developed, and recently put into use, completely revised accident reporting forms which greatly expand the scope and detail of information provided as a result of investigation. This and other factors which have resulted in an improved data system are discussed in detail.

Emotional Intelligence and the Occurrence of Accidents in Motorcycle Drivers in Kashan, Iran.

PubMed

Asgarian, Fatemeh Sadat; Aghajani, Mohammad; Alavi, Negin Masoudi

There is an inherent risk of death and injury for motorcyclists. Some factors such as personality and psychological characteristics may be contributors of motor vehicle accidents/crashes. This study aimed to determine the relationship between emotional intelligence and its related components and the occurrence of accidents/crashes in motorcycle drivers. In this case-control study, 280 motorcycle drivers with and without a history of motorcycle-related accidents or crashes in Kashan, Iran, were selected for convenience sampling. The tool used was the Bar-On Emotional Intelligence Questionnaire and included 90 items. Logistic regression revealed that components of emotional intelligence identified as happiness, optimism, flexibility, self-actualization, autonomy, and interpersonal relationships were different between motorcycle drivers with and without an accident/crash. Our findings emphasized the important role of developing and enhancing the skills of emotional intelligence as related to the prevention of accidents/crashes.

Incorporating real-time traffic and weather data to explore road accident likelihood and severity in urban arterials.

PubMed

Theofilatos, Athanasios

2017-06-01

The effective treatment of road accidents and thus the enhancement of road safety is a major concern to societies due to the losses in human lives and the economic and social costs. The investigation of road accident likelihood and severity by utilizing real-time traffic and weather data has recently received significant attention by researchers. However, collected data mainly stem from freeways and expressways. Consequently, the aim of the present paper is to add to the current knowledge by investigating accident likelihood and severity by exploiting real-time traffic and weather data collected from urban arterials in Athens, Greece. Random Forests (RF) are firstly applied for preliminary analysis purposes. More specifically, it is aimed to rank candidate variables according to their relevant importance and provide a first insight on the potential significant variables. Then, Bayesian logistic regression as well finite mixture and mixed effects logit models are applied to further explore factors associated with accident likelihood and severity respectively. Regarding accident likelihood, the Bayesian logistic regression showed that variations in traffic significantly influence accident occurrence. On the other hand, accident severity analysis revealed a generally mixed influence of traffic variations on accident severity, although international literature states that traffic variations increase severity. Lastly, weather parameters did not find to have a direct influence on accident likelihood or severity. The study added to the current knowledge by incorporating real-time traffic and weather data from urban arterials to investigate accident occurrence and accident severity mechanisms. The identification of risk factors can lead to the development of effective traffic management strategies to reduce accident occurrence and severity of injuries in urban arterials. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

Global trend according to estimated number of occupational accidents and fatal work-related diseases at region and country level.

PubMed

Hämäläinen, Päivi; Leena Saarela, Kaija; Takala, Jukka

2009-01-01

Although occupational accidents and work-related diseases have been of interest for a long time, due to lack of proper recording and notification systems the official numbers of occupational accidents and work-related diseases are missing for many countries. Presently, the demand for effectiveness and an interest in the economic aspects of accidents have increased prevention activities at company and country levels. Occupational accident data of selected countries and of World Health Organization regional divisions together with the global burden of disease were used in estimating global occupational accidents and fatal work-related diseases. The trend of global occupational accidents and work-related diseases is presented at region and country levels. The years 1998, 2001, and 2003 are compared in the case of occupational accidents and the years 2000 and 2002 in the case of work-related diseases. The total number of occupational accidents and fatal work-related diseases has increased, but the fatality rates per 100,000 workers have decreased. There were almost 360,000 fatal occupational accidents in 2003 and almost 2 million fatal work-related diseases in 2002. Every day more than 960,000 workers get hurt because of accidents. Each day 5,330 people die because of work-related diseases. Information on occupational accidents and work-related diseases is needed so that countries may understand better the importance of occupational health and safety at country and company level. Especially companies in developing countries are not familiar with occupational safety and health. Statistical data is essential for accident prevention; it is a starting point for the safety work.

National and regional analysis of road accidents in Spain.

PubMed

Tolón-Becerra, A; Lastra-Bravo, X; Flores-Parra, I

2013-01-01

In Spain, the absolute fatality figures decreased almost 50 percent between 1998 and 2009. Despite this great effort, road mortality is still of great concern to political authorities. Further progress requires efficient road safety policy based on an optimal set of measures and targets that consider the initial conditions and characteristics in each region. This study attempts to analyze road accidents in Spain and its provinces in time and space during 1998-2009. First, we analyzed daily, monthly, and nationwide (NUTS 0) development of road accidents, the correlation between logarithmic transformations of road accidents and territorial and socioeconomic variables, the causality by simple linear regression of road accidents and territorial and socioeconomic variables, and preliminary frequency by fast Fourier transform. Then we analyzed the annual trend in accidents in the Spanish provinces (NUTS 3) and found a correlation between the logarithmic transformations of the mortality rate, fatalities per fatal accident, and accidents resulting in injuries per inhabitant variables and population, population density, gross domestic product (GDP), length of road network, and area. Finally, causality was analyzed by simple linear regression. The most outstanding results were the negative correlation between mortality rate and population density in Spanish provinces, which has increased over time, and that road accidents in Spain have an approximate periodicity of 57 days. The fast Fourier transform analysis of road accident frequency in Spain was useful in identifying the periodic, harmonic components of accidents and casualties. The periodicity observed both for the period 1998-2009 and by year showed that the highest intensity in road accidents was bimonthly, despite the lower number of accidents and casualties in the spectra of amplitude and power and efforts to reduce the intensity and concentration during off-season travel (summer and December).

Analysis of data on Air Force personnel collected at Lackland Air Force Base

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1969-10-01

In July, 1967, a report was published by the Personnel Research Laboratory, Lackland Air Force Base, entitled "An Attempt to Predict Automobile Accidents Among Air Force Personnnel". Approximately twelve thousand basic airmen and eleven hundred offic...

Quantifying non-recurring delay on New York City's arterial highways.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-12-01

This research project was undertaken for NYSDOT to provide a better understanding of the impacts of traffic incidents/accident s on traffic delays on New York Citys Arterial Highways, and to better quantify and predict non-recurring traffic delay ...

Crisis Management

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brock, Stephen E., Ed.

2011-01-01

This paper presents summaries of four articles relevant to school crisis response. The first article, "Peritraumatic Dissociation Predicts Posttraumatic Stress in Youth Following Accidents" summarized by Jim Matthews, suggests that peritraumatic dissociation is a powerful predictor of PTSD symptoms among youth who have been in a car…

Predicting General Aviation Accident Frequency From Pilot Total Flight Hours

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-10-01

Craig (2001) hypothesized a killing zonea range of pilot total flight hours (TFH) from about 50-350, over : which general aviation (GA) pilots are at greatest risk. The current work tested a number of candidate modeling : functions on eight ...

Risk-based design of process plants with regard to domino effects and land use planning.

PubMed

Khakzad, Nima; Reniers, Genserik

2015-12-15

Land use planning (LUP) as an effective and crucial safety measure has widely been employed by safety experts and decision makers to mitigate off-site risks posed by major accidents. Accordingly, the concept of LUP in chemical plants has traditionally been considered from two perspectives: (i) land developments around existing chemical plants considering potential off-site risks posed by major accidents and (ii) development of existing chemical plants considering nearby land developments and the level of additional off-site risks the land developments would be exposed to. However, the attempts made to design chemical plants with regard to LUP requirements have been few, most of which have neglected the role of domino effects in risk analysis of major accidents. To overcome the limitations of previous work, first, we developed a Bayesian network methodology to calculate both on-site and off-site risks of major accidents while taking domino effects into account. Second, we combined the results of risk analysis with Analytic Hierarchical Process to design an optimal layout for which the levels of on-site and off-site risks would be minimum. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Safety training priorities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, N. A.; Ruck, H. W.

1984-04-01

The Air Force is interested in identifying potentially hazardous tasks and prevention of accidents. This effort proposes four methods for determining safety training priorities for job tasks in three enlisted specialties. These methods can be used to design training aimed at avoiding loss of people, time, materials, and money associated with on-the-job accidents. Job tasks performed by airmen were measured using task and job factor ratings. Combining accident reports and job inventories, subject-matter experts identified tasks associated with accidents over a 3-year period. Applying correlational, multiple regression, and cost-benefit analysis, four methods were developed for ordering hazardous tasks to determine safety training priorities.

Scenario analysis of freight vehicle accident risks in Taiwan.

PubMed

Tsai, Ming-Chih; Su, Chien-Chih

2004-07-01

This study develops a quantitative risk model by utilizing Generalized Linear Interactive Model (GLIM) to analyze the major freight vehicle accidents in Taiwan. Eight scenarios are established by interacting three categorical variables of driver ages, vehicle types and road types, each of which contains two levels. The database that consists of 2043 major accidents occurring between 1994 and 1998 in Taiwan is utilized to fit and calibrate the model parameters. The empirical results indicate that accident rates of freight vehicles in Taiwan were high in the scenarios involving trucks and non-freeway systems, while; accident consequences were severe in the scenarios involving mature drivers or non-freeway systems. Empirical evidences also show that there is no significant relationship between accident rates and accident consequences. This is to stress that safety studies that describe risk merely as accident rates rather than the combination of accident rates and consequences by definition might lead to biased risk perceptions. Finally, the study recommends using number of vehicle as an alternative of traffic exposure in commercial vehicle risk analysis. The merits of this would be that it is simple and thus reliable; meanwhile, the resulted risk that is termed as fatalities per vehicle could provide clear and direct policy implications for insurance practices and safety regulations.

Analytical measurements of fission products during a severe nuclear accident

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doizi, D.; Reymond la Ruinaz, S.; Haykal, I.; Manceron, L.; Perrin, A.; Boudon, V.; Vander Auwera, J.; tchana, F. Kwabia; Faye, M.

2018-01-01

The Fukushima accident emphasized the fact that ways to monitor in real time the evolution of a nuclear reactor during a severe accident remain to be developed. No fission products were monitored during twelve days; only dose rates were measured, which is not sufficient to carry out an online diagnosis of the event. The first measurements were announced with little reliability for low volatile fission products. In order to improve the safety of nuclear plants and minimize the industrial, ecological and health consequences of a severe accident, it is necessary to develop new reliable measurement systems, operating at the earliest and closest to the emission source of fission products. Through the French program ANR « Projet d'Investissement d'Avenir », the aim of the DECA-PF project (diagnosis of core degradation from fission products measurements) is to monitor in real time the release of the major fission products (krypton, xenon, gaseous forms of iodine and ruthenium) outside the nuclear reactor containment. These products are released at different times during a nuclear accident and at different states of the nuclear core degradation. Thus, monitoring these fission products gives information on the situation inside the containment and helps to apply the Severe Accident Management procedures. Analytical techniques have been proposed and evaluated. The results are discussed here.

Source, dispersion and combustion modelling of an accidental release of hydrogen in an urban environment.

PubMed

Venetsanos, A G; Huld, T; Adams, P; Bartzis, J G

2003-12-12

Hydrogen is likely to be the most important future energy carrier, for many stationary and mobile applications, with the potential to make significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions especially if renewable primary energy sources are used to produce the hydrogen. A safe transition to the use of hydrogen by members of the general public requires that the safety issues associated with hydrogen applications have to be investigated and fully understood. In order to assess the risks associated with hydrogen applications, its behaviour in realistic accident scenarios has to be predicted, allowing mitigating measures to be developed where necessary. A key factor in this process is predicting the release, dispersion and combustion of hydrogen in appropriate scenarios. This paper illustrates an application of CFD methods to the simulation of an actual hydrogen explosion. The explosion occurred on 3 March 1983 in a built up area of central Stockholm, Sweden, after the accidental release of approximately 13.5 kg of hydrogen from a rack of 18 interconnected 50 l industrial pressure vessels (200 bar working pressure) being transported by a delivery truck. Modelling of the source term, dispersion and combustion were undertaken separately using three different numerical tools, due to the differences in physics and scales between the different phenomena. Results from the dispersion calculations together with the official accident report were used to identify a possible ignition source and estimate the time at which ignition could have occurred. Ignition was estimated to occur 10s after the start of the release, coinciding with the time at which the maximum flammable hydrogen mass and cloud volume were found to occur (4.5 kg and 600 m(3), respectively). The subsequent simulation of the combustion adopts initial conditions for mean flow and turbulence from the dispersion simulations, and calculates the development of a fireball. This provides physical values, e.g. maximum overpressure and far-field overpressure that may be used as a comparison with the known accident details to give an indication of the validity of the models. The simulation results are consistent with both the reported near-field damage to buildings and persons and with the far-field damage to windows. The work was undertaken as part of the European Integrated Hydrogen Project-Phase 2 (EIHP2) with partial funding from the European Commission via the Fifth Framework Programme.

Minimum training criteria for police traffic accident reconstruction.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1987-03-01

This report summarizes the development of a set of minimum training criteria for police accident reconstructionists. Prior to this effort, no nationally accepted standards or criteria were recognized for evaluating the qualifications of police engage...

Advanced Vehicle Control Systems Potential Tort Liability For Developers

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1993-12-01

AUTOMOBILE ACCIDENTS AVOIDED BECAUSE THE AUTOMATIC COLLISION AVOIDANCE SYSTEM APPLIES THE BRAKES, HIGHWAYS WHICH ACCOMMODATE MORE VEHICLES WITH FEWER ACCIDENTS, AND EVEN CARS WHICH ARE PILOTED ENTIRELY BY SOPHISTICATED ELECTRONIC SYSTEMS -- ALL OF TH...

Multi-phase model development to assess RCIC system capabilities under severe accident conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kirkland, Karen Vierow; Ross, Kyle; Beeny, Bradley

The Reactor Core Isolation Cooling (RCIC) System is a safety-related system that provides makeup water for core cooling of some Boiling Water Reactors (BWRs) with a Mark I containment. The RCIC System consists of a steam-driven Terry turbine that powers a centrifugal, multi-stage pump for providing water to the reactor pressure vessel. The Fukushima Dai-ichi accidents demonstrated that the RCIC System can play an important role under accident conditions in removing core decay heat. The unexpectedly sustained, good performance of the RCIC System in the Fukushima reactor demonstrates, firstly, that its capabilities are not well understood, and secondly, that themore » system has high potential for extended core cooling in accident scenarios. Better understanding and analysis tools would allow for more options to cope with a severe accident situation and to reduce the consequences. The objectives of this project were to develop physics-based models of the RCIC System, incorporate them into a multi-phase code and validate the models. This Final Technical Report details the progress throughout the project duration and the accomplishments.« less

Validation and Verification (V&V) of Safety-Critical Systems Operating Under Off-Nominal Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Belcastro, Christine M.

2012-01-01

Loss of control (LOC) remains one of the largest contributors to aircraft fatal accidents worldwide. Aircraft LOC accidents are highly complex in that they can result from numerous causal and contributing factors acting alone or more often in combination. Hence, there is no single intervention strategy to prevent these accidents. Research is underway at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in the development of advanced onboard system technologies for preventing or recovering from loss of vehicle control and for assuring safe operation under off-nominal conditions associated with aircraft LOC accidents. The transition of these technologies into the commercial fleet will require their extensive validation and verification (V&V) and ultimate certification. The V&V of complex integrated systems poses highly significant technical challenges and is the subject of a parallel research effort at NASA. This chapter summarizes the V&V problem and presents a proposed process that could be applied to complex integrated safety-critical systems developed for preventing aircraft LOC accidents. A summary of recent research accomplishments in this effort is referenced.

Validation and Verification of Future Integrated Safety-Critical Systems Operating under Off-Nominal Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Belcastro, Christine M.

2010-01-01

Loss of control remains one of the largest contributors to aircraft fatal accidents worldwide. Aircraft loss-of-control accidents are highly complex in that they can result from numerous causal and contributing factors acting alone or (more often) in combination. Hence, there is no single intervention strategy to prevent these accidents and reducing them will require a holistic integrated intervention capability. Future onboard integrated system technologies developed for preventing loss of vehicle control accidents must be able to assure safe operation under the associated off-nominal conditions. The transition of these technologies into the commercial fleet will require their extensive validation and verification (V and V) and ultimate certification. The V and V of complex integrated systems poses major nontrivial technical challenges particularly for safety-critical operation under highly off-nominal conditions associated with aircraft loss-of-control events. This paper summarizes the V and V problem and presents a proposed process that could be applied to complex integrated safety-critical systems developed for preventing aircraft loss-of-control accidents. A summary of recent research accomplishments in this effort is also provided.

Modification of knowledge on occupational accidents among schoolchildren who resided in a landfill impacted area.

PubMed

Gomes, Rosangela Maiara Vindoura; Câmara, Volney de Magalhães; Souza, Delma Perpétua Oliveira de

2016-01-01

The prevalence of occupational accidents is very high in Brazil, having impacts on the health system and social security. This requires prevention, which must start with students of the Basic Education. The knowledge on this kind of accidents among children and adolescents studying in an area near a sanitary landfill was evaluated, before and after the development of activities on health education. A cross-sectional study was conducted in 2013 and included the application of the same questionnaire among students from a school in Cuiabá-MT, Brazil, before and after educational health activities related to the definition of occupational accidents. Univariate analyses of absolute and relative frequencies and bivariate analyses using the χ2 Test and Fisher's Exact Test were performed with a significance level of 0.05 and 95%CI. There was a statistically significant increase of the knowledge on these types of accidents after the educational activities (p < 0.05). The activities carried out indicate that schools are important for the development and systematization of knowledge arising from reality.

An Examination of Aviation Accidents Associated with Turbulence, Wind Shear and Thunderstorm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Evans, Joni K.

2013-01-01

The focal point of the study reported here was the definition and examination of turbulence, wind shear and thunderstorm in relation to aviation accidents. NASA project management desired this information regarding distinct subgroups of atmospheric hazards, in order to better focus their research portfolio. A seven category expansion of Kaplan's turbulence categories was developed, which included wake turbulence, mountain wave turbulence, clear air turbulence, cloud turbulence, convective turbulence, thunderstorm without mention of turbulence, and low altitude wind shear, microburst or turbulence (with no mention of thunderstorms).More than 800 accidents from flights based in the United States during 1987-2008 were selected from a National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) database. Accidents were selected for inclusion in this study if turbulence, thunderstorm, wind shear or microburst was considered either a cause or a factor in the accident report, and each accident was assigned to only one hazard category. This report summarizes the differences between the categories in terms of factors such as flight operations category, aircraft engine type, the accident's geographic location and time of year, degree of injury to aircraft occupants, aircraft damage, age and certification of the pilot and the phase of flight at the time of the accident.

Facial trauma among victims of terrestrial transport accidents.

PubMed

d'Avila, Sérgio; Barbosa, Kevan Guilherme Nóbrega; Bernardino, Ítalo de Macedo; da Nóbrega, Lorena Marques; Bento, Patrícia Meira; E Ferreira, Efigênia Ferreira

2016-01-01

In developing countries, terrestrial transport accidents - TTA, especially those involving automobiles and motorcycles - are a major cause of facial trauma, surpassing urban violence. This cross-sectional census study attempted to determine facial trauma occurrence with terrestrial transport accidents etiology, involving cars, motorcycles, or accidents with pedestrians in the northeastern region of Brazil, and examine victims' socio-demographic characteristics. Morbidity data from forensic service reports of victims who sought care from January to December 2012 were analyzed. Altogether, 2379 reports were evaluated, of which 673 were related to terrestrial transport accidents and 103 involved facial trauma. Three previously trained and calibrated researchers collected data using a specific form. Facial trauma occurrence rate was 15.3% (n=103). The most affected age group was 20-29 years (48.3%), and more men than women were affected (2.81:1). Motorcycles were involved in the majority of accidents resulting in facial trauma (66.3%). The occurrence of facial trauma in terrestrial transport accident victims tends to affect a greater proportion of young and male subjects, and the most prevalent accidents involve motorcycles. Copyright © 2015 Associação Brasileira de Otorrinolaringologia e Cirurgia Cérvico-Facial. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

The effect of road characteristics on motorcycle accident in Batu east Java Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abusini, Sobri

2013-09-01

Safe of transportation on road is global problem with not only transportation problem, but also social teritory problem in sosial life. WHO pay attention to safe transportation on road to decide healthy day in the world 2004 with caption: Road Safety is no Accident. WHO is clariafy that road accident level in the world have to reach 1.2 mellion victim death and over 30 mellion injuries every year. As much 85% sacrifice death are accident in develop state, where vehicle number only 32% from vehicle number in the world. That becouse as the objective is to decide influence road charakteristics geometrics for motorcycle accident in Batu East Java Indonesia. Using some statistical analysis it is found that the best-fit motorcycle accident model is: Acc = 0,009F0,703exp(-0,334SW-0,361G+0.077S) Where: Acc = number of accident, F = Flow, pcu/hr, SW = shoulder width (m), S = speed, km/hr, G = Gradient (0,1) The model shows that the affecting factors are flow, shoulder width and speed, therefore local government should improve some related factor (flow, shoulder width, Gradient and speed) that can reduce the number of motorcycle accident at crossing road in Batu.

Human error and commercial aviation accidents: an analysis using the human factors analysis and classification system.

PubMed

Shappell, Scott; Detwiler, Cristy; Holcomb, Kali; Hackworth, Carla; Boquet, Albert; Wiegmann, Douglas A

2007-04-01

The aim of this study was to extend previous examinations of aviation accidents to include specific aircrew, environmental, supervisory, and organizational factors associated with two types of commercial aviation (air carrier and commuter/ on-demand) accidents using the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS). HFACS is a theoretically based tool for investigating and analyzing human error associated with accidents and incidents. Previous research has shown that HFACS can be reliably used to identify human factors trends associated with military and general aviation accidents. Using data obtained from both the National Transportation Safety Board and the Federal Aviation Administration, 6 pilot-raters classified aircrew, supervisory, organizational, and environmental causal factors associated with 1020 commercial aviation accidents that occurred over a 13-year period. The majority of accident causal factors were attributed to aircrew and the environment, with decidedly fewer associated with supervisory and organizational causes. Comparisons were made between HFACS causal categories and traditional situational variables such as visual conditions, injury severity, and regional differences. These data will provide support for the continuation, modification, and/or development of interventions aimed at commercial aviation safety. HFACS provides a tool for assessing human factors associated with accidents and incidents.

Military Curricula for Vocational and Technical Education. Traffic Management and Accident Investigation, 17-8.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Air Force, Washington, DC.

This teaching guide and student workbook for a postsecondary level course in traffic management and accident investigation is one of a number of military-developed curriculum packages selected for adaptation to vocational instruction and curriculum development in a civilian setting. Purpose stated for the 132-hour course is to expose students to…

Decision support system for emergency management of oil spill accidents in the Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liubartseva, Svitlana; Coppini, Giovanni; Pinardi, Nadia; De Dominicis, Michela; Lecci, Rita; Turrisi, Giuseppe; Cretì, Sergio; Martinelli, Sara; Agostini, Paola; Marra, Palmalisa; Palermo, Francesco

2016-08-01

This paper presents an innovative web-based decision support system to facilitate emergency management in the case of oil spill accidents, called WITOIL (Where Is The Oil). The system can be applied to create a forecast of oil spill events, evaluate uncertainty of the predictions, and calculate hazards based on historical meteo-oceanographic datasets. To compute the oil transport and transformation, WITOIL uses the MEDSLIK-II oil spill model forced by operational meteo-oceanographic services. Results of the modeling are visualized through Google Maps. A special application for Android is designed to provide mobile access for competent authorities, technical and scientific institutions, and citizens.

A Study on Measures of Safety and Health against Accidents in Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hikiji, Rikio; Matsuda, Tadahiro

The purpose of this report is to exclude risk factors based on the instance of Hiyari Hatto (near-miss accidents) experienced by school personnel and students and to make the environment in which students can participate safely in the class and extracurricular activities. By means of the risk assessment and KYT (training for predicting dangers, K : Kiken, Y : Yochi, T : Training) , it has been considered how the college should control the students‧ experiments. As a result, the students have been able to work on the experiments without affecting the school facilities and the students‧ working site, and the number of injuries has decreased.

Exploratory reconstructability analysis of accident TBI data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zwick, Martin; Carney, Nancy; Nettleton, Rosemary

2018-02-01

This paper describes the use of reconstructability analysis to perform a secondary study of traumatic brain injury data from automobile accidents. Neutral searches were done and their results displayed with a hypergraph. Directed searches, using both variable-based and state-based models, were applied to predict performance on two cognitive tests and one neurological test. Very simple state-based models gave large uncertainty reductions for all three DVs and sizeable improvements in percent correct for the two cognitive test DVs which were equally sampled. Conditional probability distributions for these models are easily visualized with simple decision trees. Confounding variables and counter-intuitive findings are also reported.

Retrospection of Chernobyl nuclear accident for decision analysis concerning remedial actions in Ukraine

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Georgievskiy, Vladimir

2007-07-01

It is considered the efficacy of decisions concerning remedial actions when of-site radiological monitoring in the early and (or) in the intermediate phases was absent or was not informative. There are examples of such situations in the former Soviet Union where many people have been exposed: releases of radioactive materials from 'Krasnoyarsk-26' into Enisey River, releases of radioactive materials from 'Chelabinsk-65' (the Kishtim accident), nuclear tests at the Semipalatinsk Test Site, the Chernobyl nuclear accident etc. If monitoring in the early and (or) in the intermediate phases is absent the decisions concerning remedial actions are usually developed on the basemore » of permanent monitoring. However decisions of this kind may be essentially erroneous. For these cases it is proposed to make retrospection of radiological data of the early and intermediate phases of nuclear accident and to project decisions concerning remedial actions on the base of both retrospective data and permanent monitoring data. In this Report the indicated problem is considered by the example of the Chernobyl accident for Ukraine. Their of-site radiological monitoring in the early and intermediate phases was unsatisfactory. In particular, the pasture-cow-milk monitoring had not been made. All official decisions concerning dose estimations had been made on the base of measurements of {sup 137}Cs in body (40 measurements in 135 days and 55 measurements in 229 days after the Chernobyl accident). For the retrospection of radiological data of the Chernobyl accident dynamic model has been developed. This model has structure similar to the structure of Pathway model and Farmland model. Parameters of the developed model have been identified for agricultural conditions of Russia and Ukraine. By means of this model dynamics of 20 radionuclides in pathways and dynamics of doses have been estimated for the early, intermediate and late phases of the Chernobyl accident. The main results are following: - During the first year after the Chernobyl accident 75-93% of Commitment Effective Dose had been formed; - During the first year after the Chernobyl accident 85-90% of damage from radiation exposure had been formed. During the next 50 years (the late phase of accident) only 10-15% of damage from radiation exposure will have been formed; - Remedial actions (agricultural remedial actions as most effective) in Ukraine are intended for reduction of the damage from consumption of production which is contaminated in the late phase of accident. I.e. agricultural remedial actions have been intended for minimization only 10 % of the total damage from radiation exposure; - Medical countermeasures can minimize radiation exposure damage by an order of magnitude greater than agricultural countermeasures. - Thus, retrospection of nuclear accident has essentially changed type of remedial actions and has given a chance to increase effectiveness of spending by an order of magnitude. This example illustrates that in order to optimize remedial actions it is required to use data of retrospection of nuclear accidents in all cases when monitoring in the early and (or) intermediate phases is unsatisfactory. (author)« less

Two Dimensional Finite Element Analysis for the Effect of a Pressure Wave in the Human Brain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ponce L., Ernesto; Ponce S., Daniel

2008-11-01

Brain injuries in people of all ages is a serious, world-wide health problem, with consequences as varied as attention or memory deficits, difficulties in problem-solving, aggressive social behavior, and neuro degenerative diseases such as Alzheimer's and Parkinson's. Brain injuries can be the result of a direct impact, but also pressure waves and direct impulses. The aim of this work is to develop a predictive method to calculate the stress generated in the human brain by pressure waves such as high power sounds. The finite element method is used, combined with elastic wave theory. The predictions of the generated stress levels are compared with the resistance of the arterioles that pervade the brain. The problem was focused to the Chilean mining where there are some accidents happen by detonations and high sound level. There are not formal medical investigation, however these pressure waves could produce human brain damage.

Psychological and sociodemographic characteristics of accident involved drivers : a survey of the literature.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1976-01-01

This report reviews selected portions of the literature concerning the psychology of negligent driving. In particular, it stresses those studies which attempt to quantify and predict aberrant driving behavior. Reviewed are such topics as the role of ...

Evaluation of fog predictions and detection.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-03-01

On January 29, 2012 at about 4:00 am a thick fog and smoke caused a multiple car : crash just south of Gainesville, Florida. 11 people were killed and 18 were : hospitalized. Nationally there are about 38,000 fog related accidents which result in : a...

Historical analysis of US pipeline accidents triggered by natural hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girgin, Serkan; Krausmann, Elisabeth

2015-04-01

Natural hazards, such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, or lightning, can initiate accidents in oil and gas pipelines with potentially major consequences on the population or the environment due to toxic releases, fires and explosions. Accidents of this type are also referred to as Natech events. Many major accidents highlight the risk associated with natural-hazard impact on pipelines transporting dangerous substances. For instance, in the USA in 1994, flooding of the San Jacinto River caused the rupture of 8 and the undermining of 29 pipelines by the floodwaters. About 5.5 million litres of petroleum and related products were spilled into the river and ignited. As a results, 547 people were injured and significant environmental damage occurred. Post-incident analysis is a valuable tool for better understanding the causes, dynamics and impacts of pipeline Natech accidents in support of future accident prevention and mitigation. Therefore, data on onshore hazardous-liquid pipeline accidents collected by the US Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) was analysed. For this purpose, a database-driven incident data analysis system was developed to aid the rapid review and categorization of PHMSA incident reports. Using an automated data-mining process followed by a peer review of the incident records and supported by natural hazard databases and external information sources, the pipeline Natechs were identified. As a by-product of the data-collection process, the database now includes over 800,000 incidents from all causes in industrial and transportation activities, which are automatically classified in the same way as the PHMSA record. This presentation describes the data collection and reviewing steps conducted during the study, provides information on the developed database and data analysis tools, and reports the findings of a statistical analysis of the identified hazardous liquid pipeline incidents in terms of accident dynamics and consequences.

Trends of Training Courses Conducted in the Human Resources Development Center of the National Institute for Quantum and Radiological Science and Technology After the Fukushima Dai-Ichi Nuclear Power Plant Accident.

PubMed

Shimizu, Yuko; Iida, Haruzo; Nenoi, Mitsuru

2017-07-01

Environmental contamination with radioactive materials caused by the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) accident in 2011 raised a serious health concern among residents in Japan, and the demand for radiation experts who can handle the radiation-associated problems has increased. The Human Resources Development Center (HRDC) of the National Institute of for Quantum and Radiological Science and Technology in Japan has offered a variety of training programs covering a wide range of technologies associated with radiation since 1959. In this study, the time-course change in the number and age of the applicants for training programs regularly scheduled at HRDC were analyzed to characterize the demand after the NPP accident. The results suggested that the demand for the training of industrial radiation experts elevated sharply after the NPP accident followed by a prompt decrease, and that young people were likely stimulated to learn the basics of radiation. The demand for the training of medical radiation experts was kept high regardless of the NPP accident. The demand for the training of radiation emergency experts fluctuated apparently with three components: a terminating demand after the criticality accident that occurred in 1999, an urgent demand for handling of the NPP accident, and a sustained demand from local governments that undertook reinforcement of their nuclear disaster prevention program. The demand for the training of school students appeared to be increasing after the NPP accident. It could be foreseen that the demand for training programs targeting young people and medical radiation experts would be elevated in future.

Science in Service to Society - A Review of Applied Science & Decision Support Development Serving Multiple Economic Sectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahoney, W. P., III

2015-12-01

For more than 30 years, the Research Applications Laboratory (RAL) of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has conducted fundamental and applied research focused on developing decision support tools spanning multiple end-user groups representing a variety of economic sectors. Technology transfer is a primary mission of the laboratory where innovation is a key attribute and multidisciplinary research and development are the norm. Application areas include, aviation, surface transportation, wind and solar energy prediction, climate, weather and health, numerical weather prediction, biological and chemical plume dispersion for homeland security, flood prediction and water resource management, soil condition and crop maturity prediction among other application areas. The majority of the developed capabilities have been operationalized by the public, private, and academic sectors. Several commercial companies have been successfully formed around the technologies (e.g., Weather Information Technologies, Inc., Peak Weather Resources, Inc., and Global Weather Corporation) and many existing companies have improved their products by utilizing the RAL-developed weather system advancements (The Weather Channel, WSI, Schneider Electric, Xcel Energy, United Airlines, Vaisala, Panasonic, Idaho Power, etc.). The economic benefit estimates of implementing these technologies have ranged from billions of dollars in avoided commercial aircraft accidents over the last 30 years to 10s of millions of dollars of annual savings by state departments of transportation via more efficient ice and snow maintenance operations. Research and development at RAL is connected to the Broader Impacts Criterion of NSF and its focus on research that results in significant economic or societal impact. This talk will describe our research-to-operations process and discuss several technology transfer examples that have led to commercial opportunities.

Evaluation of a procedure for reducing vehicle-tree accidents.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1987-01-01

A procedure for reducing vehicle-tree accidents was evaluated. The procedure, developed by the Michigan Department of Transportation, consists of five steps: (1) preparing a base map and plotting roadway information, (2) assigning priorities for fiel...

Psychosocial reconstruction inventory : a postdictal instrument in aircraft accident investigation.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1972-01-01

A new approach to the investigation of aviation accidents has recently been initiated, utilizing a follow-on to the psychological autopsy. This approach, the psychosocial reconstruction inventory, enables the development of a dynamic, retrospective p...

Accident Data Use and Geographic Information System (GIS)

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-09-16

Project Description: The Cheyenne Area Transportation Planning Process (ChATTP) : has developed a PowerPoint presentation demonstrating how to use an existing : accident database with GIS software. The slides are followed by a hands-on : demonstratio...

Data mining and visualization of the Alabama accident database

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-08-01

The Alabama Department of Public Safety has developed and maintains a centralized database that contain traffic accident data collected from crash report completed by local police officers and state troopers. The Critical Analysis Reporting Environme...

Final safety analysis report for the Galileo Mission: Volume 2, Book 2: Accident model document: Appendices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1988-12-15

This section of the Accident Model Document (AMD) presents the appendices which describe the various analyses that have been conducted for use in the Galileo Final Safety Analysis Report II, Volume II. Included in these appendices are the approaches, techniques, conditions and assumptions used in the development of the analytical models plus the detailed results of the analyses. Also included in these appendices are summaries of the accidents and their associated probabilities and environment models taken from the Shuttle Data Book (NSTS-08116), plus summaries of the several segments of the recent GPHS safety test program. The information presented in thesemore » appendices is used in Section 3.0 of the AMD to develop the Failure/Abort Sequence Trees (FASTs) and to determine the fuel releases (source terms) resulting from the potential Space Shuttle/IUS accidents throughout the missions.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Panayotov, Dobromir; Poitevin, Yves; Grief, Andrew

'Fusion for Energy' (F4E) is designing, developing, and implementing the European Helium-Cooled Lead-Lithium (HCLL) and Helium-Cooled Pebble-Bed (HCPB) Test Blanket Systems (TBSs) for ITER (Nuclear Facility INB-174). Safety demonstration is an essential element for the integration of these TBSs into ITER and accident analysis is one of its critical components. A systematic approach to accident analysis has been developed under the F4E contract on TBS safety analyses. F4E technical requirements, together with Amec Foster Wheeler and INL efforts, have resulted in a comprehensive methodology for fusion breeding blanket accident analysis that addresses the specificity of the breeding blanket designs, materials,more » and phenomena while remaining consistent with the approach already applied to ITER accident analyses. Furthermore, the methodology phases are illustrated in the paper by its application to the EU HCLL TBS using both MELCOR and RELAP5 codes.« less

Latin American Clinical Epidemiology Network Series - Paper 5: Years of life lost due to premature death in traffic accidents in Bogota, Colombia.

PubMed

Quitian-Reyes, Hoover; Gómez-Restrepo, Carlos; Gómez, Maria Juliana; Naranjo, Salome; Heredia, Patricia; Villegas, John

2017-06-01

This study aimed to quantify the number of years of life lost in traffic accidents in Bogota, Colombia. The years of life lost were calculated using the 'age-standardized expected years of life lost' method, the table of Japanese adjusted life expectancy and the database of the Institute of Legal Medicine and Forensic Science between September 2012 and August 2013. During a period of 1 year, 430 people died and 10,056.3 years of life were lost in Bogota due to traffic accidents. The mortality burden of traffic accidents in Bogota is high. Further studies are required in order to characterize the accidents and develop effective policy decisions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An analysis of pilot error-related aircraft accidents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kowalsky, N. B.; Masters, R. L.; Stone, R. B.; Babcock, G. L.; Rypka, E. W.

1974-01-01

A multidisciplinary team approach to pilot error-related U.S. air carrier jet aircraft accident investigation records successfully reclaimed hidden human error information not shown in statistical studies. New analytic techniques were developed and applied to the data to discover and identify multiple elements of commonality and shared characteristics within this group of accidents. Three techniques of analysis were used: Critical element analysis, which demonstrated the importance of a subjective qualitative approach to raw accident data and surfaced information heretofore unavailable. Cluster analysis, which was an exploratory research tool that will lead to increased understanding and improved organization of facts, the discovery of new meaning in large data sets, and the generation of explanatory hypotheses. Pattern recognition, by which accidents can be categorized by pattern conformity after critical element identification by cluster analysis.

Injury protection and accident causation parameters for vulnerable road users based on German In-Depth Accident Study GIDAS.

PubMed

Otte, Dietmar; Jänsch, Michael; Haasper, Carl

2012-01-01

Within a study of accident data from GIDAS (German In-Depth Accident Study), vulnerable road users are investigated regarding injury risk in traffic accidents. GIDAS is the largest in-depth accident study in Germany. Due to a well-defined sampling plan, representativeness with respect to the federal statistics is also guaranteed. A hierarchical system ACASS (Accident Causation Analysis with Seven Steps) was developed in GIDAS, describing the human causation factors in a chronological sequence. The accordingly classified causation factors - derived from the systematic of the analysis of human accident causes ("7 steps") - can be used to describe the influence of accident causes on the injury outcome. The bases of the study are accident documentations over ten years from 1999 to 2008 with 8204 vulnerable road users (VRU), of which 3 different groups were selected as pedestrians n=2041, motorcyclists n=2199 and bicyclists n=3964, and analyzed on collisions with cars and trucks as well as vulnerable road users alone. The paper will give a description of the injury pattern and injury mechanisms of accidents. The injury frequencies and severities are pointed out considering different types of VRU and protective measures of helmet and clothes of the human body. The impact points are demonstrated on the car, following to conclusion of protective measures on the vehicle. Existing standards of protection devices as well as interdisciplinary research, including accident and injury statistics, are described. With this paper, a summarization of the existing possibilities on protective measures for pedestrians, bicyclists and motorcyclists is given and discussed by comparison of all three groups of vulnerable road users. Also the relevance of special impact situations and accident causes mainly responsible for severe injuries are pointed out, given the new orientation of research for the avoidance and reduction of accident patterns. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Review of Global Menace of Road Accidents with Special Reference to Malaysia- A Social Perspective

PubMed Central

Kareem, Abdul

2003-01-01

Road accident is ‘a global tragedy’ with ever-rising trend. The goal of this article includes review of the causes and nature of accidents, statistical data regarding road accidents and the economical impact. 1.17 million deaths occur each year worldwide due to road accidents 70 % of which occur in developing countries. 65% of deaths involve pedestrians, 35 % of which are children. Estimates suggest that 23–34 million people are injured worldwide every year in road crashes - a value almost twice that previously estimated. It is estimated that more than 200 U.S. citizens die each year due to road accidents abroad. Every year in Europe, more than 50,000 peoples are killed in road accidents, and more than 150,000 remain disabled. It is a sad fact that the total number of road accidents in Malaysia exceeded 223,000 in 1999. On the average, 16 persons died from these road accidents, every single day in 1999. Lack of attention, reckless driving, lack of proper protection, speeding, bad personal habits, social and behavioral misconduct and inconsiderate drivers of larger vehicles are some of the problems that cause accidents. In Malaysia, motorcycle fatal accidents (60%) warrant a high degree of concern. Young children and senior citizens are found to be in the vulnerable age group. In Malaysia, in 1999 alone, general insurers paid RM1.67 billion or an average of RM4.6 million a day on motor claims. It is now recognized that road traffic accidents represent a major public health problem, because of the high number of victims involved and because of the seriousness of the consequences for themselves and for their families. PMID:23386795

[Occupational exposure risk to body fluids in the Felix Bulnes Hospital during eleven years].

PubMed

Villarroel, Julia; Bustamante, M Cecilia; Manríquez, Iván; Bertoglia, M Paz; Mora, María; Galarce, Natalie

2012-06-01

Accidents with risk of occupational exposure to body fluids constitute more of a third of labor accidents. To describe the annual incidence of accidents with exposure to body fluids in the Felix Bulnes Hospital from 1998 to 2008. A retrospective analysis of reports from the Infection Control Committee. During 11 years, there were 415 accidents with exposure to body fluids, with the cumulative incidence of 3,4% (range 1.3% to 6%). Sharp instrument accidents accounted for 92,5% of cases. The main health care providers affected were the paramedical technicians and the students. The highest frequency of accidents occurred in the obstetrical operating rooms (20%) and in the central operating rooms (17%). There were no cases of seroconversion and no exposure to HCV or HBV. The estimated costs were USD $35638,6 or USD $271 per 1000 staff per year. The incidence increased during the first years of the study and then remained stable since 2001, despite efforts in training personnel. Many factors contribute to the development of these accidents, such as lack of experience, type of clinical benefit and even daytime working hours.

Numerical reconstruction and injury biomechanism in a car-pedestrian crash accident.

PubMed

Zou, Dong-Hua; Li, Zheng-Dong; Shao, Yu; Feng, Hao; Chen, Jian-Guo; Liu, Ning-Guo; Huang, Ping; Chen, Yi-Jiu

2012-12-01

To reconstruct a car-pedestrian crash accident using numerical simulation technology and explore the injury biomechanism as forensic evidence for injury identification. An integration of multi-body dynamic, finite element (FE), and classical method was applied to a car-pedestrian crash accident. The location of the collision and the details of the traffic accident were determined by vehicle trace verification and autopsy. The accident reconstruction was performed by coupling the three-dimensional car behavior from PC-CRASH with a MADYMO dummy model. The collision FE models of head and leg, developed from CT scans of human remains, were loaded with calculated dummy collision parameters. The data of the impact biomechanical responses were extracted in terms of von Mises stress, relative displacement, strain and stress fringes. The accident reconstruction results were identical with the examined ones and the biomechanism of head and leg injuries, illustrated through the FE methods, were consistent with the classical injury theories. The numerical simulation technology is proved to be effective in identifying traffic accidents and exploring of injury biomechanism.

Accidents on board merchant ships. Suggestions based on Centro Internazionale Radio Medico (CIRM) experience.

PubMed

Napoleone, Paolo

2016-01-01

This statistical study was performed to find out the occurrence of accidents on board ships assisted by Centro Internazionale Radio Medico (CIRM) during the years 2010-2015, with the aim of providing suggestions in accident prevention, based on such a wide experience. The case histories of CIRM in the years 2010-2015 were examined. The total number of accidents per year was calculated and compared as a percentage with the total number of cases assisted by CIRM per year. The incidence of accidents on board in these years ranged between 14.4% and 18.4% of total cases assisted per year, which is constantly increasing. The most common injuries on board among cases treated by CIRM were contusions and wounds. Also burns and eye injuries were significantly represented. Multiple injuries and head injuries were found to be the most frequent cause of death on board due to an accident. More information on the occurrence and type of accidents and on the body injured areas should represent the basis for developing strategies and campaigns for their prevention.

Characteristics of motorcyclists involved in road traffic accidents attended at public urgent and emergency services.

PubMed

Mascarenhas, Márcio Dênis Medeiros; Souto, Rayone Moreira Costa Veloso; Malta, Deborah Carvalho; Silva, Marta Maria Alves da; Lima, Cheila Marina de; Montenegro, Marli de Mesquita Silva

2016-12-01

Injuries resulting from motorcycle road traffic accidents are an important public health issue in Brazil. This study aimed to describe the characteristics of motorcyclists involved in traffic accidents attended in public urgent and emergency services in the state capitals and the Federal District. This is a cross-sectional study based on data from the Violence and Accident Surveillance System (VIVA Survey) in 2014. Data were analyzed according to sociodemographic, event and attendance characteristics. Proportional differences between genders were analyzed by chi-square test (Rao-Scott) with 5% significance level. Motorcyclist-related attendances (n = 9,673) reported a prevalence of men (gender ratio = 3.2), young people aged 20-39 years (65.7%), black / brown (73.6%), paid work (76.4%). Helmet use was reported by 79.1% of the victims, 13.3% had consumed alcohol in the six hours prior to the accident, 41.4% of the events were related to the victim's work. Accidents were more frequent on weekends, in the morning and late afternoon. These characteristics can support the development of public accident prevention policies and health promotion.