Predictive value of different prostate-specific antigen-based markers in men with baseline total prostate-specific antigen <2.0 ng/mL.

PubMed

Fujizuka, Yuji; Ito, Kazuto; Oki, Ryo; Suzuki, Rie; Sekine, Yoshitaka; Koike, Hidekazu; Matsui, Hiroshi; Shibata, Yasuhiro; Suzuki, Kazuhiro

2017-08-01

To investigate the predictive value of various molecular forms of prostate-specific antigen in men with baseline prostate-specific antigen <2.0 ng/mL. The case cohort comprised 150 men with a baseline prostate-specific antigen level <2.0 ng/mL, and who developed prostate cancer within 10 years. The control cohort was 300 baseline prostate-specific antigen- and age-adjusted men who did not develop prostate cancer. Serum prostate-specific antigen, free prostate-specific antigen, and [-2] proenzyme prostate-specific antigen were measured at baseline and last screening visit. The predictive impact of baseline prostate-specific antigen- and [-2] proenzyme prostate-specific antigen-related indices on developing prostate cancer was investigated. The predictive impact of those indices at last screening visit and velocities from baseline to final screening on tumor aggressiveness were also investigated. The baseline free to total prostate-specific antigen ratio was a significant predictor of prostate cancer development. The odds ratio was 6.08 in the lowest quintile baseline free to total prostate-specific antigen ratio subgroup. No serum indices at diagnosis were associated with tumor aggressiveness. The Prostate Health Index velocity and [-2] proenzyme prostate-specific antigen/free prostate-specific antigen velocity significantly increased in patients with higher risk D'Amico risk groups and higher Gleason scores. Free to total prostate-specific antigen ratio in men with low baseline prostate-specific antigen levels seems to predict the risk of developing prostate cancer, and it could be useful for a more effective individualized screening system. Longitudinal changes in [-2] proenzyme prostate-specific antigen-related indices seem to correlate with tumor aggressiveness, and they could be used as prognostic tool before treatment and during active surveillance. © 2017 The Japanese Urological Association.

Trainee and Instructor Task Quantification: Development of Quantitative Indices and a Predictive Methodology.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Whaton, George R.; And Others

As the first step in a program to develop quantitative techniques for prescribing the design and use of training systems, the present study attempted: to compile an initial set of quantitative indices, to determine whether these indices could be used to describe a sample of trainee tasks and differentiate among them, to develop a predictive…

Textile composite processing science

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Loos, Alfred C.; Hammond, Vincent H.; Kranbuehl, David E.; Hasko, Gregory H.

1993-01-01

A multi-dimensional model of the Resin Transfer Molding (RTM) process was developed for the prediction of the infiltration behavior of a resin into an anisotropic fiber preform. Frequency dependent electromagnetic sensing (FDEMS) was developed for in-situ monitoring of the RTM process. Flow visualization and mold filling experiments were conducted to verify sensor measurements and model predictions. Test results indicated good agreement between model predictions, sensor readings, and experimental data.

The evaluation of different forest structural indices to predict the stand aboveground biomass of even-aged Scotch pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) forests in Kunduz, Northern Turkey.

PubMed

Ercanli, İlker; Kahriman, Aydın

2015-03-01

We assessed the effect of stand structural diversity, including the Shannon, improved Shannon, Simpson, McIntosh, Margelef, and Berger-Parker indices, on stand aboveground biomass (AGB) and developed statistical prediction models for the stand AGB values, including stand structural diversity indices and some stand attributes. The AGB prediction model, including only stand attributes, accounted for 85 % of the total variance in AGB (R (2)) with an Akaike's information criterion (AIC) of 807.2407, Bayesian information criterion (BIC) of 809.5397, Schwarz Bayesian criterion (SBC) of 818.0426, and root mean square error (RMSE) of 38.529 Mg. After inclusion of the stand structural diversity into the model structure, considerable improvement was observed in statistical accuracy, including 97.5 % of the total variance in AGB, with an AIC of 614.1819, BIC of 617.1242, SBC of 633.0853, and RMSE of 15.8153 Mg. The predictive fitting results indicate that some indices describing the stand structural diversity can be employed as significant independent variables to predict the AGB production of the Scotch pine stand. Further, including the stand diversity indices in the AGB prediction model with the stand attributes provided important predictive contributions in estimating the total variance in AGB.

Interrelationships among invasive and non-invasive indicators of biological maturation in adolescent male soccer players.

PubMed

Malina, Robert M; Coelho E Silva, Manuel J; Figueiredo, António J; Carling, Christopher; Beunen, Gaston P

2012-01-01

The relationships among indicators of biological maturation were evaluated and concordance between classifications of maturity status in two age groups of youth soccer players examined (11-12 years, n = 87; 13-14 years, n = 93). Data included chronological age (CA), skeletal age (SA, Fels method), stage of pubic hair, predicted age at peak height velocity, and percent of predicted adult height. Players were classified as on time, late or early in maturation using the SA-CA difference, predicted age at peak height velocity, and percent of predicted mature height. Factor analyses indicated two factors in players aged 11-12 years (maturity status: percent of predicted mature height, stage of pubic hair, 59% of variance; maturity timing: SA/CA ratio, predicted age at peak height velocity, 26% of variance), and one factor in players aged 13-14 years (68% of variance). Kappa coefficients were low (0.02-0.23) and indicated poor agreement between maturity classifications. Spearman rank-order correlations between categories were low to moderate (0.16-0.50). Although the indicators were related, concordance of maturity classifications between skeletal age and predicted age at peak height velocity and percent predicted mature height was poor. Talent development programmes call for the classification of youth as early, average, and late maturing for the purpose of designing training and competition programmes. Non-invasive indicators of maturity status have limitations for this purpose.

A comprehensive performance evaluation on the prediction results of existing cooperative transcription factors identification algorithms.

PubMed

Lai, Fu-Jou; Chang, Hong-Tsun; Huang, Yueh-Min; Wu, Wei-Sheng

2014-01-01

Eukaryotic transcriptional regulation is known to be highly connected through the networks of cooperative transcription factors (TFs). Measuring the cooperativity of TFs is helpful for understanding the biological relevance of these TFs in regulating genes. The recent advances in computational techniques led to various predictions of cooperative TF pairs in yeast. As each algorithm integrated different data resources and was developed based on different rationales, it possessed its own merit and claimed outperforming others. However, the claim was prone to subjectivity because each algorithm compared with only a few other algorithms and only used a small set of performance indices for comparison. This motivated us to propose a series of indices to objectively evaluate the prediction performance of existing algorithms. And based on the proposed performance indices, we conducted a comprehensive performance evaluation. We collected 14 sets of predicted cooperative TF pairs (PCTFPs) in yeast from 14 existing algorithms in the literature. Using the eight performance indices we adopted/proposed, the cooperativity of each PCTFP was measured and a ranking score according to the mean cooperativity of the set was given to each set of PCTFPs under evaluation for each performance index. It was seen that the ranking scores of a set of PCTFPs vary with different performance indices, implying that an algorithm used in predicting cooperative TF pairs is of strength somewhere but may be of weakness elsewhere. We finally made a comprehensive ranking for these 14 sets. The results showed that Wang J's study obtained the best performance evaluation on the prediction of cooperative TF pairs in yeast. In this study, we adopted/proposed eight performance indices to make a comprehensive performance evaluation on the prediction results of 14 existing cooperative TFs identification algorithms. Most importantly, these proposed indices can be easily applied to measure the performance of new algorithms developed in the future, thus expedite progress in this research field.

Why do early mathematics skills predict later reading? The role of mathematical language.

PubMed

Purpura, David J; Logan, Jessica A R; Hassinger-Das, Brenna; Napoli, Amy R

2017-09-01

A growing body of evidence indicates that the development of mathematics and literacy skills is highly related. The importance of literacy skills-specifically language-for mathematics development has been well rationalized. However, despite several prominent studies indicating that mathematics skills are highly predictive of literacy development, the reason for this relation is not well understood. The purpose of this study was to identify how and why early mathematics is predictive of early literacy development. Participants included 125 preschool children 3-5 years old (M = 4 years 3 months). Participants were assessed on mathematics, literacy, and cognitive measures in both the fall and spring of their preschool year. Mediation analyses indicated that the relation between early mathematics and literacy skills is mediated by children's mathematical language skills. These findings suggest that, in prior research identifying mathematical performance as a significant predictor of later literacy skills, mathematical performance may have acted only as a proxy measure for more complex language skills such as those assessed on a mathematical language measure. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Prediction of high-risk areas for visceral leishmaniasis using socioeconomic indicators and remote sensing data

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Spatial heterogeneity in the incidence of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is an important aspect to be considered in planning control actions for the disease. The objective of this study was to predict areas at high risk for visceral leishmaniasis (VL) based on socioeconomic indicators and remote sensing data. We applied classification and regression trees to develop and validate prediction models. Performance of the models was assessed by means of sensitivity, specificity and area under the ROC curve. The model developed was able to discriminate 15 subsets of census tracts (CT) with different probabilities of containing CT with high risk of VL occurrence. The model presented, respectively, in the validation and learning samples, sensitivity of 79% and 52%, specificity of 75% and 66%, and area under the ROC curve of 83% and 66%. Considering the complex network of factors involved in the occurrence of VL in urban areas, the results of this study showed that the development of a predictive model for VL might be feasible and useful for guiding interventions against the disease, but it is still a challenge as demonstrated by the unsatisfactory predictive performance of the model developed. PMID:24885128

Evaluating the impact of bike network indicators on cyclist safety using macro-level collision prediction models.

PubMed

Osama, Ahmed; Sayed, Tarek

2016-12-01

Many cities worldwide are recognizing the important role that cycling plays in creating green and livable communities. However, vulnerable road users such as cyclists are usually subjected to an elevated level of injury risk which discourages many road users to cycle. This paper studies cyclist-vehicle collisions at 134 traffic analysis zones in the city of Vancouver to assess the impact of bike network structure on cyclist safety. Several network indicators were developed using Graph theory and their effect on cyclist safety was investigated. The indicators included measures of connectivity, directness, and topography of the bike network. The study developed several macro-level (zonal) collision prediction models that explicitly incorporated bike network indicators as explanatory variables. As well, the models incorporated the actual cyclist exposure (bike kilometers travelled) as opposed to relying on proxies such as population or bike network length. The macro-level collision prediction models were developed using generalized linear regression and full Bayesian techniques, with and without spatial effects. The models showed that cyclist collisions were positively associated with bike and vehicle exposure. The exponents of the exposure variables were less than one which supports the "safety in numbers" hypothesis. Moreover, the models showed positive associations between cyclist collisions and the bike network connectivity and linearity indicators. In contrast, negative associations were found between cyclist collisions and the bike network continuity and topography indicators. The spatial effects were statistically significant in all of the developed models. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A conceptual prediction model for seasonal drought processes using atmospheric and oceanic standardized anomalies: application to regional drought processes in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zhenchen; Lu, Guihua; He, Hai; Wu, Zhiyong; He, Jian

2018-01-01

Reliable drought prediction is fundamental for water resource managers to develop and implement drought mitigation measures. Considering that drought development is closely related to the spatial-temporal evolution of large-scale circulation patterns, we developed a conceptual prediction model of seasonal drought processes based on atmospheric and oceanic standardized anomalies (SAs). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is first applied to drought-related SAs at 200 and 500 hPa geopotential height (HGT) and sea surface temperature (SST). Subsequently, SA-based predictors are built based on the spatial pattern of the first EOF modes. This drought prediction model is essentially the synchronous statistical relationship between 90-day-accumulated atmospheric-oceanic SA-based predictors and SPI3 (3-month standardized precipitation index), calibrated using a simple stepwise regression method. Predictor computation is based on forecast atmospheric-oceanic products retrieved from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2), indicating the lead time of the model depends on that of CFSv2. The model can make seamless drought predictions for operational use after a year-to-year calibration. Model application to four recent severe regional drought processes in China indicates its good performance in predicting seasonal drought development, despite its weakness in predicting drought severity. Overall, the model can be a worthy reference for seasonal water resource management in China.

Interactions of timing and prediction error learning.

PubMed

Kirkpatrick, Kimberly

2014-01-01

Timing and prediction error learning have historically been treated as independent processes, but growing evidence has indicated that they are not orthogonal. Timing emerges at the earliest time point when conditioned responses are observed, and temporal variables modulate prediction error learning in both simple conditioning and cue competition paradigms. In addition, prediction errors, through changes in reward magnitude or value alter timing of behavior. Thus, there appears to be a bi-directional interaction between timing and prediction error learning. Modern theories have attempted to integrate the two processes with mixed success. A neurocomputational approach to theory development is espoused, which draws on neurobiological evidence to guide and constrain computational model development. Heuristics for future model development are presented with the goal of sparking new approaches to theory development in the timing and prediction error fields. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Summertime Thunderstorms Prediction in Belarus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lapo, Palina; Sokolovskaya, Yaroslava; Krasouski, Aliaksandr; Svetashev, Alexander; Turishev, Leonid; Barodka, Siarhei

2015-04-01

Mesoscale modeling with the Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) system makes it possible to predict thunderstorm formation events by direct numerical simulation. In the present study, we analyze the feasibility and quality of thunderstorm prediction on the territory of Belarus for the summer period of 2014 based on analysis of several characteristic parameters in WRF modeling results that can serve as indicators of thunderstorms formation. These parameters include vertical velocity distribution, convective available potential energy (CAPE), K-index, SWEAT-index, Thompson index, lifted condensation level (LCL), and others, all of them being indicators of favorable atmospheric conditions for thunderstorms development. We perform mesoscale simulations of several cases of thunderstorm development in Belarus with WRF-ARW modeling system using 3 km grid spacing, WSM6 microphysics parameterization and explicit convection (no convective parameterization). Typical modeling duration makes 48 hours, which is equivalent to next-day thunderstorm prediction in operational use. We focus our attention to most prominent cases of intense thunderstorms in Minsk. For validation purposes, we use radar and satellite data in addition to surface observations. In summertime, the territory of Belarus is quite often under the influence of atmospheric fronts and stationary anticyclones. In this study, we subdivide thunderstorm cases under consideration into 2 categories: thunderstorms related to free convection and those related to forced convection processes. Our aim is to study the differences in thunderstorm indicator parameters between these two categories of thunderstorms in order to elaborate a set of parameters that can be used for operational thunderstorm forecasting. For that purpose, we analyze characteristic features of thunderstorms development on cold atmospheric fronts as well as thunderstorms formation in stable air masses. Modeling results demonstrate good predictive skill for thunderstorms development forecasting in summertime, which is even better in cases of atmospheric fronts passage. Integrated use of thunderstorm indicator parameters makes it possible to further improve the predictive skill.

Predicting hydrological response to forest changes by simple statistical models: the selection of the best indicator of forest changes with a hydrological perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ning, D.; Zhang, M.; Ren, S.; Hou, Y.; Yu, L.; Meng, Z.

2017-01-01

Forest plays an important role in hydrological cycle, and forest changes will inevitably affect runoff across multiple spatial scales. The selection of a suitable indicator for forest changes is essential for predicting forest-related hydrological response. This study used the Meijiang River, one of the headwaters of the Poyang Lake as an example to identify the best indicator of forest changes for predicting forest change-induced hydrological responses. Correlation analysis was conducted first to detect the relationships between monthly runoff and its predictive variables including antecedent monthly precipitation and indicators for forest changes (forest coverage, vegetation indices including EVI, NDVI, and NDWI), and by use of the identified predictive variables that were most correlated with monthly runoff, multiple linear regression models were then developed. The model with best performance identified in this study included two independent variables -antecedent monthly precipitation and NDWI. It indicates that NDWI is the best indicator of forest change in hydrological prediction while forest coverage, the most commonly used indicator of forest change is insignificantly related to monthly runoff. This highlights the use of vegetation index such as NDWI to indicate forest changes in hydrological studies. This study will provide us with an efficient way to quantify the hydrological impact of large-scale forest changes in the Meijiang River watershed, which is crucial for downstream water resource management and ecological protection in the Poyang Lake basin.

Artificial neural network intelligent method for prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trifonov, Roumen; Yoshinov, Radoslav; Pavlova, Galya; Tsochev, Georgi

2017-09-01

Accounting and financial classification and prediction problems are high challenge and researchers use different methods to solve them. Methods and instruments for short time prediction of financial operations using artificial neural network are considered. The methods, used for prediction of financial data as well as the developed forecasting system with neural network are described in the paper. The architecture of a neural network used four different technical indicators, which are based on the raw data and the current day of the week is presented. The network developed is used for forecasting movement of stock prices one day ahead and consists of an input layer, one hidden layer and an output layer. The training method is algorithm with back propagation of the error. The main advantage of the developed system is self-determination of the optimal topology of neural network, due to which it becomes flexible and more precise The proposed system with neural network is universal and can be applied to various financial instruments using only basic technical indicators as input data.

Data-Driven Nonlinear Subspace Modeling for Prediction and Control of Molten Iron Quality Indices in Blast Furnace Ironmaking

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Ping; Song, Heda; Wang, Hong

Blast furnace (BF) in ironmaking is a nonlinear dynamic process with complicated physical-chemical reactions, where multi-phase and multi-field coupling and large time delay occur during its operation. In BF operation, the molten iron temperature (MIT) as well as Si, P and S contents of molten iron are the most essential molten iron quality (MIQ) indices, whose measurement, modeling and control have always been important issues in metallurgic engineering and automation field. This paper develops a novel data-driven nonlinear state space modeling for the prediction and control of multivariate MIQ indices by integrating hybrid modeling and control techniques. First, to improvemore » modeling efficiency, a data-driven hybrid method combining canonical correlation analysis and correlation analysis is proposed to identify the most influential controllable variables as the modeling inputs from multitudinous factors would affect the MIQ indices. Then, a Hammerstein model for the prediction of MIQ indices is established using the LS-SVM based nonlinear subspace identification method. Such a model is further simplified by using piecewise cubic Hermite interpolating polynomial method to fit the complex nonlinear kernel function. Compared to the original Hammerstein model, this simplified model can not only significantly reduce the computational complexity, but also has almost the same reliability and accuracy for a stable prediction of MIQ indices. Last, in order to verify the practicability of the developed model, it is applied in designing a genetic algorithm based nonlinear predictive controller for multivariate MIQ indices by directly taking the established model as a predictor. Industrial experiments show the advantages and effectiveness of the proposed approach.« less

Driver's mental workload prediction model based on physiological indices.

PubMed

Yan, Shengyuan; Tran, Cong Chi; Wei, Yingying; Habiyaremye, Jean Luc

2017-09-15

Developing an early warning model to predict the driver's mental workload (MWL) is critical and helpful, especially for new or less experienced drivers. The present study aims to investigate the correlation between new drivers' MWL and their work performance, regarding the number of errors. Additionally, the group method of data handling is used to establish the driver's MWL predictive model based on subjective rating (NASA task load index [NASA-TLX]) and six physiological indices. The results indicate that the NASA-TLX and the number of errors are positively correlated, and the predictive model shows the validity of the proposed model with an R 2 value of 0.745. The proposed model is expected to provide a reference value for the new drivers of their MWL by providing the physiological indices, and the driving lesson plans can be proposed to sustain an appropriate MWL as well as improve the driver's work performance.

4-Year Trajectory of Visceral Adiposity Index in the Development of Type 2 Diabetes: A Prospective Cohort Study.

PubMed

Zhang, Meilin; Zheng, Li; Li, Ping; Zhu, Yufeng; Chang, Hong; Wang, Xuan; Liu, Weiqiao; Zhang, Yuwen; Huang, Guowei

2016-01-01

Our aim was to evaluate whether visceral adiposity index (VAI) could predict the risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in different genders and to compare the predictive ability between VAI and other fatness indices. Four thousand seventy-eight participants including 1,817 men and 2,261 women, aged 18 and older and free of T2D at baseline were enrolled in 2010 and followed up for 4 years. New cases of T2D were identified via the annual medical examination. Cox regression analysis was used to assess the association between VAI and incidence of T2D. Receiver operating characteristic curve and area under the curves (AUC) were applied to compare the prediction ability of T2D between VAI and other fatness indices. During the 4-year follow-up, 153 (8.42%) of 1,817 men and 88 (3.89%) of 2,261 women developed T2D. The multivariable-adjusted hazards ratios for developing T2D in the highest tertile of VAI scores were 2.854 (95% CI 1.815-4.487) in men and 3.551 (95% CI 1.586-7.955) in women. The AUC of VAI was not higher than that of other fatness indices. VAI could predict the risk of T2D among Chinese adults, especially in women. However, the prediction ability of T2D risk for VAI was not higher than that of the other fatness indices. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

The Stability and Validity of Automated Vocal Analysis in Preverbal Preschoolers With Autism Spectrum Disorder

PubMed Central

Woynaroski, Tiffany; Oller, D. Kimbrough; Keceli-Kaysili, Bahar; Xu, Dongxin; Richards, Jeffrey A.; Gilkerson, Jill; Gray, Sharmistha; Yoder, Paul

2017-01-01

Theory and research suggest that vocal development predicts “useful speech” in preschoolers with autism spectrum disorder (ASD), but conventional methods for measurement of vocal development are costly and time consuming. This longitudinal correlational study examines the reliability and validity of several automated indices of vocalization development relative to an index derived from human coded, conventional communication samples in a sample of preverbal preschoolers with ASD. Automated indices of vocal development were derived using software that is presently “in development” and/or only available for research purposes and using commercially available Language ENvironment Analysis (LENA) software. Indices of vocal development that could be derived using the software available for research purposes: (a) were highly stable with a single day-long audio recording, (b) predicted future spoken vocabulary to a degree that was nonsignificantly different from the index derived from conventional communication samples, and (c) continued to predict future spoken vocabulary even after controlling for concurrent vocabulary in our sample. The score derived from standard LENA software was similarly stable, but was not significantly correlated with future spoken vocabulary. Findings suggest that automated vocal analysis is a valid and reliable alternative to time intensive and expensive conventional communication samples for measurement of vocal development of preverbal preschoolers with ASD in research and clinical practice. PMID:27459107

A machine learning approach for predicting the relationship between energy resources and economic development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cogoljević, Dušan; Alizamir, Meysam; Piljan, Ivan; Piljan, Tatjana; Prljić, Katarina; Zimonjić, Stefan

2018-04-01

The linkage between energy resources and economic development is a topic of great interest. Research in this area is also motivated by contemporary concerns about global climate change, carbon emissions fluctuating crude oil prices, and the security of energy supply. The purpose of this research is to develop and apply the machine learning approach to predict gross domestic product (GDP) based on the mix of energy resources. Our results indicate that GDP predictive accuracy can be improved slightly by applying a machine learning approach.

PCTFPeval: a web tool for benchmarking newly developed algorithms for predicting cooperative transcription factor pairs in yeast.

PubMed

Lai, Fu-Jou; Chang, Hong-Tsun; Wu, Wei-Sheng

2015-01-01

Computational identification of cooperative transcription factor (TF) pairs helps understand the combinatorial regulation of gene expression in eukaryotic cells. Many advanced algorithms have been proposed to predict cooperative TF pairs in yeast. However, it is still difficult to conduct a comprehensive and objective performance comparison of different algorithms because of lacking sufficient performance indices and adequate overall performance scores. To solve this problem, in our previous study (published in BMC Systems Biology 2014), we adopted/proposed eight performance indices and designed two overall performance scores to compare the performance of 14 existing algorithms for predicting cooperative TF pairs in yeast. Most importantly, our performance comparison framework can be applied to comprehensively and objectively evaluate the performance of a newly developed algorithm. However, to use our framework, researchers have to put a lot of effort to construct it first. To save researchers time and effort, here we develop a web tool to implement our performance comparison framework, featuring fast data processing, a comprehensive performance comparison and an easy-to-use web interface. The developed tool is called PCTFPeval (Predicted Cooperative TF Pair evaluator), written in PHP and Python programming languages. The friendly web interface allows users to input a list of predicted cooperative TF pairs from their algorithm and select (i) the compared algorithms among the 15 existing algorithms, (ii) the performance indices among the eight existing indices, and (iii) the overall performance scores from two possible choices. The comprehensive performance comparison results are then generated in tens of seconds and shown as both bar charts and tables. The original comparison results of each compared algorithm and each selected performance index can be downloaded as text files for further analyses. Allowing users to select eight existing performance indices and 15 existing algorithms for comparison, our web tool benefits researchers who are eager to comprehensively and objectively evaluate the performance of their newly developed algorithm. Thus, our tool greatly expedites the progress in the research of computational identification of cooperative TF pairs.

PCTFPeval: a web tool for benchmarking newly developed algorithms for predicting cooperative transcription factor pairs in yeast

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Background Computational identification of cooperative transcription factor (TF) pairs helps understand the combinatorial regulation of gene expression in eukaryotic cells. Many advanced algorithms have been proposed to predict cooperative TF pairs in yeast. However, it is still difficult to conduct a comprehensive and objective performance comparison of different algorithms because of lacking sufficient performance indices and adequate overall performance scores. To solve this problem, in our previous study (published in BMC Systems Biology 2014), we adopted/proposed eight performance indices and designed two overall performance scores to compare the performance of 14 existing algorithms for predicting cooperative TF pairs in yeast. Most importantly, our performance comparison framework can be applied to comprehensively and objectively evaluate the performance of a newly developed algorithm. However, to use our framework, researchers have to put a lot of effort to construct it first. To save researchers time and effort, here we develop a web tool to implement our performance comparison framework, featuring fast data processing, a comprehensive performance comparison and an easy-to-use web interface. Results The developed tool is called PCTFPeval (Predicted Cooperative TF Pair evaluator), written in PHP and Python programming languages. The friendly web interface allows users to input a list of predicted cooperative TF pairs from their algorithm and select (i) the compared algorithms among the 15 existing algorithms, (ii) the performance indices among the eight existing indices, and (iii) the overall performance scores from two possible choices. The comprehensive performance comparison results are then generated in tens of seconds and shown as both bar charts and tables. The original comparison results of each compared algorithm and each selected performance index can be downloaded as text files for further analyses. Conclusions Allowing users to select eight existing performance indices and 15 existing algorithms for comparison, our web tool benefits researchers who are eager to comprehensively and objectively evaluate the performance of their newly developed algorithm. Thus, our tool greatly expedites the progress in the research of computational identification of cooperative TF pairs. PMID:26677932

An auxiliary optimization method for complex public transit route network based on link prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Lin; Lu, Jian; Yue, Xianfei; Zhou, Jialin; Li, Yunxuan; Wan, Qian

2018-02-01

Inspired by the missing (new) link prediction and the spurious existing link identification in link prediction theory, this paper establishes an auxiliary optimization method for public transit route network (PTRN) based on link prediction. First, link prediction applied to PTRN is described, and based on reviewing the previous studies, the summary indices set and its algorithms set are collected for the link prediction experiment. Second, through analyzing the topological properties of Jinan’s PTRN established by the Space R method, we found that this is a typical small-world network with a relatively large average clustering coefficient. This phenomenon indicates that the structural similarity-based link prediction will show a good performance in this network. Then, based on the link prediction experiment of the summary indices set, three indices with maximum accuracy are selected for auxiliary optimization of Jinan’s PTRN. Furthermore, these link prediction results show that the overall layout of Jinan’s PTRN is stable and orderly, except for a partial area that requires optimization and reconstruction. The above pattern conforms to the general pattern of the optimal development stage of PTRN in China. Finally, based on the missing (new) link prediction and the spurious existing link identification, we propose optimization schemes that can be used not only to optimize current PTRN but also to evaluate PTRN planning.

Mid-infrared spectroscopy predictions as indicator traits in breeding programs for enhanced coagulation properties of milk.

PubMed

Cecchinato, A; De Marchi, M; Gallo, L; Bittante, G; Carnier, P

2009-10-01

The aims of this study were to investigate variation of milk coagulation property (MCP) measures and their predictions obtained by mid-infrared spectroscopy (MIR), to investigate the genetic relationship between measures of MCP and MIR predictions, and to estimate the expected response from a breeding program focusing on the enhancement of MCP using MIR predictions as indicator traits. Individual milk samples were collected from 1,200 Brown Swiss cows (progeny of 50 artificial insemination sires) reared in 30 herds located in northern Italy. Rennet coagulation time (RCT, min) and curd firmness (a(30), mm) were measured using a computerized renneting meter. The MIR data were recorded over the spectral range of 4,000 to 900 cm(-1). Prediction models for RCT and a(30) based on MIR spectra were developed using partial least squares regression. A cross-validation procedure was carried out. The procedure involved the partition of available data into 2 subsets: a calibration subset and a test subset. The calibration subset was used to develop a calibration equation able to predict individual MCP phenotypes using MIR spectra. The test subset was used to validate the calibration equation and to estimate heritabilities and genetic correlations for measured MCP and their predictions obtained from MIR spectra and the calibration equation. Point estimates of heritability ranged from 0.30 to 0.34 and from 0.22 to 0.24 for RCT and a(30), respectively. Heritability estimates for MCP predictions were larger than those obtained for measured MCP. Estimated genetic correlations between measures and predictions of RCT were very high and ranged from 0.91 to 0.96. Estimates of the genetic correlation between measures and predictions of a(30) were large and ranged from 0.71 to 0.87. Predictions of MCP provided by MIR techniques can be proposed as indicator traits for the genetic enhancement of MCP. The expected response of RCT and a(30) ensured by the selection using MIR predictions as indicator traits was equal to or slightly less than the response achievable through a single measurement of these traits. Breeding strategies for the enhancement of MCP based on MIR predictions as indicator traits could be easily and immediately implemented for dairy cattle populations where routine acquisition of spectra from individual milk samples is already performed.

Incorporation of satellite remote sensing pan-sharpened imagery into digital soil prediction and mapping models to characterize soil property variability in small agricultural fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Yiming; Smith, Scot E.; Grunwald, Sabine; Abd-Elrahman, Amr; Wani, Suhas P.

2017-01-01

Soil prediction models based on spectral indices from some multispectral images are too coarse to characterize spatial pattern of soil properties in small and heterogeneous agricultural lands. Image pan-sharpening has seldom been utilized in Digital Soil Mapping research before. This research aimed to analyze the effects of pan-sharpened (PAN) remote sensing spectral indices on soil prediction models in smallholder farm settings. This research fused the panchromatic band and multispectral (MS) bands of WorldView-2, GeoEye-1, and Landsat 8 images in a village in Southern India by Brovey, Gram-Schmidt and Intensity-Hue-Saturation methods. Random Forest was utilized to develop soil total nitrogen (TN) and soil exchangeable potassium (Kex) prediction models by incorporating multiple spectral indices from the PAN and MS images. Overall, our results showed that PAN remote sensing spectral indices have similar spectral characteristics with soil TN and Kex as MS remote sensing spectral indices. There is no soil prediction model incorporating the specific type of pan-sharpened spectral indices always had the strongest prediction capability of soil TN and Kex. The incorporation of pan-sharpened remote sensing spectral data not only increased the spatial resolution of the soil prediction maps, but also enhanced the prediction accuracy of soil prediction models. Small farms with limited footprint, fragmented ownership and diverse crop cycle should benefit greatly from the pan-sharpened high spatial resolution imagery for soil property mapping. Our results show that multiple high and medium resolution images can be used to map soil properties suggesting the possibility of an improvement in the maps' update frequency. Additionally, the results should benefit the large agricultural community through the reduction of routine soil sampling cost and improved prediction accuracy.

[Development of a predictive program for microbial growth under various temperature conditions].

PubMed

Fujikawa, Hiroshi; Yano, Kazuyoshi; Morozumi, Satoshi; Kimura, Bon; Fujii, Tateo

2006-12-01

A predictive program for microbial growth under various temperature conditions was developed with a mathematical model. The model was a new logistic model recently developed by us. The program predicts Escherichia coli growth in broth, Staphylococcus aureus growth and its enterotoxin production in milk, and Vibrio parahaemolyticus growth in broth at various temperature patterns. The program, which was built with Microsoft Excel (Visual Basic Application), is user-friendly; users can easily input the temperature history of a test food and obtain the prediction instantly on the computer screen. The predicted growth and toxin production can be important indices to determine whether a food is microbiologically safe or not. This program should be a useful tool to confirm the microbial safety of commercial foods.

Animal versus human oral drug bioavailability: Do they correlate?

PubMed Central

Musther, Helen; Olivares-Morales, Andrés; Hatley, Oliver J.D.; Liu, Bo; Rostami Hodjegan, Amin

2014-01-01

Oral bioavailability is a key consideration in development of drug products, and the use of preclinical species in predicting bioavailability in human has long been debated. In order to clarify whether any correlation between human and animal bioavailability exist, an extensive analysis of the published literature data was conducted. Due to the complex nature of bioavailability calculations inclusion criteria were applied to ensure integrity of the data. A database of 184 compounds was assembled. Linear regression for the reported compounds indicated no strong or predictive correlations to human data for all species, individually and combined. The lack of correlation in this extended dataset highlights that animal bioavailability is not quantitatively predictive of bioavailability in human. Although qualitative (high/low bioavailability) indications might be possible, models taking into account species-specific factors that may affect bioavailability are recommended for developing quantitative prediction. PMID:23988844

Predicting fibromyalgia, a narrative review: are we better than fools and children?

PubMed

Ablin, J N; Buskila, D

2014-09-01

Fibromyalgia syndrome (FMS) is a common and intriguing condition, manifest by chronic pain and fatigue. Although the pathogenesis of FMS is not yet completely understood, predicting the future development of FMS and chronic pain is a major challenge with great potential advantages, both from an individual as well as an epidemiological standpoint. Current knowledge indicates a genetic underpinning for FMS, and as increasing data are accumulated regarding the genetics involved, the prospect of utilizing these data for prediction becomes ever more attractive. The co-existence of FMS with multiple other functional disorders indicates that the clinical identification of such symptom constellations in a patient can alert the physician to the future development of FMS. Hypermobility syndrome is another clinical (as well as genetic) phenotype that has emerged as a risk factor for the development of FMS. Stressful events, including early life trauma, are also harbingers of the future development of FMS. Functional neuroimaging may help to elucidate the neural processes involved in central sensitization, and may ultimately also evolve into markers of predictive value. Last but not least, obesity and disturbed sleep are clinical (inter-related) features relevant for this spectrum. Future efforts will aim at integrating genetic, clinical and physiological data in the prediction of FMS and chronic pain. © 2014 European Pain Federation - EFIC®

Development of estrogen receptor beta binding prediction model using large sets of chemicals.

PubMed

Sakkiah, Sugunadevi; Selvaraj, Chandrabose; Gong, Ping; Zhang, Chaoyang; Tong, Weida; Hong, Huixiao

2017-11-03

We developed an ER β binding prediction model to facilitate identification of chemicals specifically bind ER β or ER α together with our previously developed ER α binding model. Decision Forest was used to train ER β binding prediction model based on a large set of compounds obtained from EADB. Model performance was estimated through 1000 iterations of 5-fold cross validations. Prediction confidence was analyzed using predictions from the cross validations. Informative chemical features for ER β binding were identified through analysis of the frequency data of chemical descriptors used in the models in the 5-fold cross validations. 1000 permutations were conducted to assess the chance correlation. The average accuracy of 5-fold cross validations was 93.14% with a standard deviation of 0.64%. Prediction confidence analysis indicated that the higher the prediction confidence the more accurate the predictions. Permutation testing results revealed that the prediction model is unlikely generated by chance. Eighteen informative descriptors were identified to be important to ER β binding prediction. Application of the prediction model to the data from ToxCast project yielded very high sensitivity of 90-92%. Our results demonstrated ER β binding of chemicals could be accurately predicted using the developed model. Coupling with our previously developed ER α prediction model, this model could be expected to facilitate drug development through identification of chemicals that specifically bind ER β or ER α .

Exploring the associations between drug side-effects and therapeutic indications.

PubMed

Wang, Fei; Zhang, Ping; Cao, Nan; Hu, Jianying; Sorrentino, Robert

2014-10-01

Drug therapeutic indications and side-effects are both measurable patient phenotype changes in response to the treatment. Inferring potential drug therapeutic indications and identifying clinically interesting drug side-effects are both important and challenging tasks. Previous studies have utilized either chemical structures or protein targets to predict indications and side-effects. In this study, we compared drug therapeutic indication prediction using various information including chemical structures, protein targets and side-effects. We also compared drug side-effect prediction with various information sources including chemical structures, protein targets and therapeutic indication. Prediction performance based on 10-fold cross-validation demonstrates that drug side-effects and therapeutic indications are the most predictive information source for each other. In addition, we extracted 6706 statistically significant indication-side-effect associations from all known drug-disease and drug-side-effect relationships. We further developed a novel user interface that allows the user to interactively explore these associations in the form of a dynamic bipartitie graph. Many relationship pairs provide explicit repositioning hypotheses (e.g., drugs causing postural hypotension are potential candidates for hypertension) and clear adverse-reaction watch lists (e.g., drugs for heart failure possibly cause impotence). All data sets and highly correlated disease-side-effect relationships are available at http://astro.temple.edu/∼tua87106/druganalysis.html. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The future of predictive microbiology: strategic research, innovative applications and great expectations.

PubMed

McMeekin, Tom; Bowman, John; McQuestin, Olivia; Mellefont, Lyndal; Ross, Tom; Tamplin, Mark

2008-11-30

This paper considers the future of predictive microbiology by exploring the balance that exists between science, applications and expectations. Attention is drawn to the development of predictive microbiology as a sub-discipline of food microbiology and of technologies that are required for its applications, including a recently developed biological indicator. As we move into the era of systems biology, in which physiological and molecular information will be increasingly available for incorporation into models, predictive microbiologists will be faced with new experimental and data handling challenges. Overcoming these hurdles may be assisted by interacting with microbiologists and mathematicians developing models to describe the microbial role in ecosystems other than food. Coupled with a commitment to maintain strategic research, as well as to develop innovative technologies, the future of predictive microbiology looks set to fulfil "great expectations".

Use of Family Care Indicators and Their Relationship with Child Development in Bangladesh

PubMed Central

Tofail, Fahmida; Hilaly, Afroza; Huda, Syed N.; Engle, Patrice; Grantham-McGregor, Sally M.

2010-01-01

Poor stimulation in the home is one of the main factors affecting the development of children living in poverty. The family care indicators (FCIs) were developed to measure home stimulation in large populations and were derived from the Home Observations for Measurement of the Environment (HOME). The FCIs were piloted with 801 rural Bangladeshi mothers of children aged 18 months. Five subscales were created: ‘play activities’ (PA), ‘varieties of play materials’ (VP), ‘sources of play materials’, ‘household books’, and ‘magazines and newspapers’ (MN). All subscales had acceptable short-term reliability. Mental and motor development of the children was assessed on the Bayley Scales of Infant Development and their language expression and comprehension by mothers’ report. After controlling for socioeconomic variables, VP and PA independently predicted four and three of the developmental outcomes respectively, and MN predicted both the Bayley scores. The FCI is promising as a survey-based indicator of the quality of children's home environment. PMID:20214083

Does a Dynamic Test of Phonological Awareness Predict Early Reading Difficulties? A Longitudinal Study from Kindergarten through Grade 1

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gellert, Anna S.; Elbro, Carsten

2017-01-01

A few studies have indicated that dynamic measures of phonological awareness may contribute uniquely to the prediction of early reading development. However, standard control measures have been few and limited by floor effects, thus limiting their predictive value. The purpose of the present study was to examine the predictive value of a dynamic…

Genetic programming based quantitative structure-retention relationships for the prediction of Kovats retention indices.

PubMed

Goel, Purva; Bapat, Sanket; Vyas, Renu; Tambe, Amruta; Tambe, Sanjeev S

2015-11-13

The development of quantitative structure-retention relationships (QSRR) aims at constructing an appropriate linear/nonlinear model for the prediction of the retention behavior (such as Kovats retention index) of a solute on a chromatographic column. Commonly, multi-linear regression and artificial neural networks are used in the QSRR development in the gas chromatography (GC). In this study, an artificial intelligence based data-driven modeling formalism, namely genetic programming (GP), has been introduced for the development of quantitative structure based models predicting Kovats retention indices (KRI). The novelty of the GP formalism is that given an example dataset, it searches and optimizes both the form (structure) and the parameters of an appropriate linear/nonlinear data-fitting model. Thus, it is not necessary to pre-specify the form of the data-fitting model in the GP-based modeling. These models are also less complex, simple to understand, and easy to deploy. The effectiveness of GP in constructing QSRRs has been demonstrated by developing models predicting KRIs of light hydrocarbons (case study-I) and adamantane derivatives (case study-II). In each case study, two-, three- and four-descriptor models have been developed using the KRI data available in the literature. The results of these studies clearly indicate that the GP-based models possess an excellent KRI prediction accuracy and generalization capability. Specifically, the best performing four-descriptor models in both the case studies have yielded high (>0.9) values of the coefficient of determination (R(2)) and low values of root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute percent error (MAPE) for training, test and validation set data. The characteristic feature of this study is that it introduces a practical and an effective GP-based method for developing QSRRs in gas chromatography that can be gainfully utilized for developing other types of data-driven models in chromatography science. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Long-Term Prediction of the Arctic Ionospheric TEC Based on Time-Varying Periodograms

PubMed Central

Liu, Jingbin; Chen, Ruizhi; Wang, Zemin; An, Jiachun; Hyyppä, Juha

2014-01-01

Knowledge of the polar ionospheric total electron content (TEC) and its future variations is of scientific and engineering relevance. In this study, a new method is developed to predict Arctic mean TEC on the scale of a solar cycle using previous data covering 14 years. The Arctic TEC is derived from global positioning system measurements using the spherical cap harmonic analysis mapping method. The study indicates that the variability of the Arctic TEC results in highly time-varying periodograms, which are utilized for prediction in the proposed method. The TEC time series is divided into two components of periodic oscillations and the average TEC. The newly developed method of TEC prediction is based on an extrapolation method that requires no input of physical observations of the time interval of prediction, and it is performed in both temporally backward and forward directions by summing the extrapolation of the two components. The backward prediction indicates that the Arctic TEC variability includes a 9 years period for the study duration, in addition to the well-established periods. The long-term prediction has an uncertainty of 4.8–5.6 TECU for different period sets. PMID:25369066

Seasonal Drought Prediction: Advances, Challenges, and Future Prospects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Zengchao; Singh, Vijay P.; Xia, Youlong

2018-03-01

Drought prediction is of critical importance to early warning for drought managements. This review provides a synthesis of drought prediction based on statistical, dynamical, and hybrid methods. Statistical drought prediction is achieved by modeling the relationship between drought indices of interest and a suite of potential predictors, including large-scale climate indices, local climate variables, and land initial conditions. Dynamical meteorological drought prediction relies on seasonal climate forecast from general circulation models (GCMs), which can be employed to drive hydrological models for agricultural and hydrological drought prediction with the predictability determined by both climate forcings and initial conditions. Challenges still exist in drought prediction at long lead time and under a changing environment resulting from natural and anthropogenic factors. Future research prospects to improve drought prediction include, but are not limited to, high-quality data assimilation, improved model development with key processes related to drought occurrence, optimal ensemble forecast to select or weight ensembles, and hybrid drought prediction to merge statistical and dynamical forecasts.

Quantitative and Systems Pharmacology. 1. In Silico Prediction of Drug-Target Interactions of Natural Products Enables New Targeted Cancer Therapy.

PubMed

Fang, Jiansong; Wu, Zengrui; Cai, Chuipu; Wang, Qi; Tang, Yun; Cheng, Feixiong

2017-11-27

Natural products with diverse chemical scaffolds have been recognized as an invaluable source of compounds in drug discovery and development. However, systematic identification of drug targets for natural products at the human proteome level via various experimental assays is highly expensive and time-consuming. In this study, we proposed a systems pharmacology infrastructure to predict new drug targets and anticancer indications of natural products. Specifically, we reconstructed a global drug-target network with 7,314 interactions connecting 751 targets and 2,388 natural products and built predictive network models via a balanced substructure-drug-target network-based inference approach. A high area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.96 was yielded for predicting new targets of natural products during cross-validation. The newly predicted targets of natural products (e.g., resveratrol, genistein, and kaempferol) with high scores were validated by various literature studies. We further built the statistical network models for identification of new anticancer indications of natural products through integration of both experimentally validated and computationally predicted drug-target interactions of natural products with known cancer proteins. We showed that the significantly predicted anticancer indications of multiple natural products (e.g., naringenin, disulfiram, and metformin) with new mechanism-of-action were validated by various published experimental evidence. In summary, this study offers powerful computational systems pharmacology approaches and tools for the development of novel targeted cancer therapies by exploiting the polypharmacology of natural products.

Effects of historical and predictive information on ability of transport pilot to predict an alert

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trujillo, Anna C.

1994-01-01

In the aviation community, the early detection of the development of a possible subsystem problem during a flight is potentially useful for increasing the safety of the flight. Commercial airlines are currently using twin-engine aircraft for extended transport operations over water, and the early detection of a possible problem might increase the flight crew's options for safely landing the aircraft. One method for decreasing the severity of a developing problem is to predict the behavior of the problem so that appropriate corrective actions can be taken. To investigate the pilots' ability to predict long-term events, a computer workstation experiment was conducted in which 18 airline pilots predicted the alert time (the time to an alert) using 3 different dial displays and 3 different parameter behavior complexity levels. The three dial displays were as follows: standard (resembling current aircraft round dial presentations); history (indicating the current value plus the value of the parameter 5 sec in the past); and predictive (indicating the current value plus the value of the parameter 5 sec into the future). The time profiles describing the behavior of the parameter consisted of constant rate-of-change profiles, decelerating profiles, and accelerating-then-decelerating profiles. Although the pilots indicated that they preferred the near term predictive dial, the objective data did not support its use. The objective data did show that the time profiles had the most significant effect on performance in estimating the time to an alert.

A comparative study of kinetic and connectionist modeling for shelf-life prediction of Basundi mix.

PubMed

Ruhil, A P; Singh, R R B; Jain, D K; Patel, A A; Patil, G R

2011-04-01

A ready-to-reconstitute formulation of Basundi, a popular Indian dairy dessert was subjected to storage at various temperatures (10, 25 and 40 °C) and deteriorative changes in the Basundi mix were monitored using quality indices like pH, hydroxyl methyl furfural (HMF), bulk density (BD) and insolubility index (II). The multiple regression equations and the Arrhenius functions that describe the parameters' dependence on temperature for the four physico-chemical parameters were integrated to develop mathematical models for predicting sensory quality of Basundi mix. Connectionist model using multilayer feed forward neural network with back propagation algorithm was also developed for predicting the storage life of the product employing artificial neural network (ANN) tool box of MATLAB software. The quality indices served as the input parameters whereas the output parameters were the sensorily evaluated flavour and total sensory score. A total of 140 observations were used and the prediction performance was judged on the basis of per cent root mean square error. The results obtained from the two approaches were compared. Relatively lower magnitudes of percent root mean square error for both the sensory parameters indicated that the connectionist models were better fitted than kinetic models for predicting storage life.

Health Education a Conceptual Approach. Growing and Developing, Interacting, Decision Making. Concept 2: Growing and Developing Follows a Predictable Sequence, Yet is Unique for Each Individual. Teacher-Student Resources.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Creswell, William H., Jr.; And Others

The following resource guide is one in a series which presents extensive bibliographic material oriented around a specific concept, in this guide, the predictability and uniqueness of growing and developing. A section is devoted to selected materials related to the concept; grade levels for which each resource might be useful are indicated beside…

Predicting diameters inside bark for 10 important hardwood species

Treesearch

Donald E. Hilt; Everette D. Rast; Herman J. Bailey

1983-01-01

General models for predicting DIB/DOB ratios up the stem, applicable over wide geographic areas, have been developed for 10 important hardwood species. Results indicate that the ratios either decrease or remain constant up the stem. Methods for adjusting the general models to local conditions are presented. The prediction models can be used in conjunction with optical...

NARX neural network Prediction of SYMH and ASYH indices for geomagnetic storms of solar cycle 24 including recent St. Patrick's day, 2015 storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhaskar, A. T.; Vichare, G.

2017-12-01

Here, an attempt is made to develop a prediction model for SYMH and ASYH geomagnetic indices using Artificial Neural Network (ANN). SYMH and ASYH indices represent longitudinal symmetric and asymmetric component of the ring current. The ring current state depends on its past conditions therefore, it is necessary to consider its history for prediction. To account this effect Nonlinear Autoregressive Network with eXogenous inputs (NARX) is implemented. This network considers input history of 30 minutes and output feedback of 120 minutes. Solar wind parameters mainly velocity, density and interplanetary magnetic field are used as inputs. SYMH and ASYH indices during geomagnetic storms of 1998-2013, having minimum SYMH <-85 nT are used as the target for training two independent networks. We present the prediction of SYMH and ASYH indices during 9 geomagnetic storms of solar cycle 24 including the recent largest storm occurred on St. Patrick's day, 2015. The present prediction model reproduces the entire time profile of SYMH and ASYH indices along with small variations of 10-30 minutes to good extent within noise level, indicating significant contribution of interplanetary sources and past state of the magnetosphere. However, during the main phase of major storms, residuals (observed-modeled) are found to be large, suggesting influence of internal factors such as magnetospheric processes.

Predicting Dengue Fever Outbreaks in French Guiana Using Climate Indicators.

PubMed

Adde, Antoine; Roucou, Pascal; Mangeas, Morgan; Ardillon, Vanessa; Desenclos, Jean-Claude; Rousset, Dominique; Girod, Romain; Briolant, Sébastien; Quenel, Philippe; Flamand, Claude

2016-04-01

Dengue fever epidemic dynamics are driven by complex interactions between hosts, vectors and viruses. Associations between climate and dengue have been studied around the world, but the results have shown that the impact of the climate can vary widely from one study site to another. In French Guiana, climate-based models are not available to assist in developing an early warning system. This study aims to evaluate the potential of using oceanic and atmospheric conditions to help predict dengue fever outbreaks in French Guiana. Lagged correlations and composite analyses were performed to identify the climatic conditions that characterized a typical epidemic year and to define the best indices for predicting dengue fever outbreaks during the period 1991-2013. A logistic regression was then performed to build a forecast model. We demonstrate that a model based on summer Equatorial Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures and Azores High sea-level pressure had predictive value and was able to predict 80% of the outbreaks while incorrectly predicting only 15% of the non-epidemic years. Predictions for 2014-2015 were consistent with the observed non-epidemic conditions, and an outbreak in early 2016 was predicted. These findings indicate that outbreak resurgence can be modeled using a simple combination of climate indicators. This might be useful for anticipating public health actions to mitigate the effects of major outbreaks, particularly in areas where resources are limited and medical infrastructures are generally insufficient.

Efficacy of extracting indices from large-scale acoustic recordings to monitor biodiversity.

PubMed

Buxton, Rachel; McKenna, Megan F; Clapp, Mary; Meyer, Erik; Stabenau, Erik; Angeloni, Lisa M; Crooks, Kevin; Wittemyer, George

2018-04-20

Passive acoustic monitoring has the potential to be a powerful approach for assessing biodiversity across large spatial and temporal scales. However, extracting meaningful information from recordings can be prohibitively time consuming. Acoustic indices offer a relatively rapid method for processing acoustic data and are increasingly used to characterize biological communities. We examine the ability of acoustic indices to predict the diversity and abundance of biological sounds within recordings. First we reviewed the acoustic index literature and found that over 60 indices have been applied to a range of objectives with varying success. We then implemented a subset of the most successful indices on acoustic data collected at 43 sites in temperate terrestrial and tropical marine habitats across the continental U.S., developing a predictive model of the diversity of animal sounds observed in recordings. For terrestrial recordings, random forest models using a suite of acoustic indices as covariates predicted Shannon diversity, richness, and total number of biological sounds with high accuracy (R 2 > = 0.94, mean squared error MSE < = 170.2). Among the indices assessed, roughness, acoustic activity, and acoustic richness contributed most to the predictive ability of models. Performance of index models was negatively impacted by insect, weather, and anthropogenic sounds. For marine recordings, random forest models predicted Shannon diversity, richness, and total number of biological sounds with low accuracy (R 2 < = 0.40, MSE > = 195), indicating that alternative methods are necessary in marine habitats. Our results suggest that using a combination of relevant indices in a flexible model can accurately predict the diversity of biological sounds in temperate terrestrial acoustic recordings. Thus, acoustic approaches could be an important contribution to biodiversity monitoring in some habitats in the face of accelerating human-caused ecological change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

The effect of geographical indices on left ventricular structure in healthy Han Chinese population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cen, Minyi; Ge, Miao; Liu, Yonglin; Wang, Congxia; Yang, Shaofang

2017-02-01

The left ventricular posterior wall thickness (LVPWT) and interventricular septum thickness (IVST) are generally regarded as the functional parts of the left ventricular (LV) structure. This paper aims to examine the effects of geographical indices on healthy Han adults' LV structural indices and to offer a scientific basis for developing a unified standard for the reference values of adults' LV structural indices in China. Fifteen terrain, climate, and soil indices were examined as geographical explanatory variables. Statistical analysis was performed using correlation analysis. Moreover, a back propagation neural network (BPNN) and a support vector regression (SVR) were applied to developing models to predict the values of two indices. After the prediction models were built, distribution maps were produced. The results show that LV structural indices are characteristically associated with latitude, longitude, altitude, average temperature, average wind velocity, topsoil sand fraction, topsoil silt fraction, topsoil organic carbon, and topsoil sodicity. The model test analyses show the BPNN model possesses better simulative and predictive ability in comparison with the SVR model. The distribution maps of the LV structural indices show that, in China, the values are higher in the west and lower in the east. These results demonstrate that the reference values of the adults' LV structural indices will be different affected by different geographical environment. The reference values of LV structural indices in one region can be calculated by setting up a BPNN, which showed better applicability in this study. The distribution of the reference values of the LV structural indices can be seen clearly on the geographical distribution map.

The effect of geographical indices on left ventricular structure in healthy Han Chinese population.

PubMed

Cen, Minyi; Ge, Miao; Liu, Yonglin; Wang, Congxia; Yang, Shaofang

2017-02-01

The left ventricular posterior wall thickness (LVPWT) and interventricular septum thickness (IVST) are generally regarded as the functional parts of the left ventricular (LV) structure. This paper aims to examine the effects of geographical indices on healthy Han adults' LV structural indices and to offer a scientific basis for developing a unified standard for the reference values of adults' LV structural indices in China. Fifteen terrain, climate, and soil indices were examined as geographical explanatory variables. Statistical analysis was performed using correlation analysis. Moreover, a back propagation neural network (BPNN) and a support vector regression (SVR) were applied to developing models to predict the values of two indices. After the prediction models were built, distribution maps were produced. The results show that LV structural indices are characteristically associated with latitude, longitude, altitude, average temperature, average wind velocity, topsoil sand fraction, topsoil silt fraction, topsoil organic carbon, and topsoil sodicity. The model test analyses show the BPNN model possesses better simulative and predictive ability in comparison with the SVR model. The distribution maps of the LV structural indices show that, in China, the values are higher in the west and lower in the east. These results demonstrate that the reference values of the adults' LV structural indices will be different affected by different geographical environment. The reference values of LV structural indices in one region can be calculated by setting up a BPNN, which showed better applicability in this study. The distribution of the reference values of the LV structural indices can be seen clearly on the geographical distribution map.

MODELING LEACHING OF VIRUSES BY THE MONTE CARLO METHOD

EPA Science Inventory

A predictive screening model was developed for fate and transport
of viruses in the unsaturated zone. A database of input parameters
allowed Monte Carlo analysis with the model. The resulting kernel
densities of predicted attenuation during percolation indicated very ...

Cancer Risk Prediction and Assessment

Cancer.gov

Cancer prediction models provide an important approach to assessing risk and prognosis by identifying individuals at high risk, facilitating the design and planning of clinical cancer trials, fostering the development of benefit-risk indices, and enabling estimates of the population burden and cost of cancer.

Sexual Anxiety and Eroticism Predict the Development of Sexual Problems in Youth With a History of Sexual Abuse

PubMed Central

Simon, Valerie A.; Feiring, Candice

2017-01-01

Youth with confirmed histories of sexual abuse (N = 118) were followed longitudinally to examine associations between their initial sexual reactions to abuse and subsequent sexual functioning. Participants were interviewed at abuse discovery (ages 8 through 15) and again 1 and 6 years later. Eroticism and sexual anxiety emerged as distinct indices of abuse-specific sexual reactions and predicted subsequent sexual functioning. Eroticism was associated with indicators of heightened sexuality, including more sexual risk behavior and views of sexual intimacy focused on partners’ needs. Sexual anxiety was associated with indicators of diminished sexuality, including few sexual partners and avoidant views of sexual intimacy. Age at abuse discovery moderated some associations, suggesting that the timing of abuse-specific reactions affects trajectories of sexual development. Findings point to the need for a developmental approach to understanding how abuse-specific sexual reactions disrupt sexual development and the need for early interventions promoting healthy sexual development. PMID:18408212

The stability and validity of automated vocal analysis in preverbal preschoolers with autism spectrum disorder.

PubMed

Woynaroski, Tiffany; Oller, D Kimbrough; Keceli-Kaysili, Bahar; Xu, Dongxin; Richards, Jeffrey A; Gilkerson, Jill; Gray, Sharmistha; Yoder, Paul

2017-03-01

Theory and research suggest that vocal development predicts "useful speech" in preschoolers with autism spectrum disorder (ASD), but conventional methods for measurement of vocal development are costly and time consuming. This longitudinal correlational study examines the reliability and validity of several automated indices of vocalization development relative to an index derived from human coded, conventional communication samples in a sample of preverbal preschoolers with ASD. Automated indices of vocal development were derived using software that is presently "in development" and/or only available for research purposes and using commercially available Language ENvironment Analysis (LENA) software. Indices of vocal development that could be derived using the software available for research purposes: (a) were highly stable with a single day-long audio recording, (b) predicted future spoken vocabulary to a degree that was nonsignificantly different from the index derived from conventional communication samples, and (c) continued to predict future spoken vocabulary even after controlling for concurrent vocabulary in our sample. The score derived from standard LENA software was similarly stable, but was not significantly correlated with future spoken vocabulary. Findings suggest that automated vocal analysis is a valid and reliable alternative to time intensive and expensive conventional communication samples for measurement of vocal development of preverbal preschoolers with ASD in research and clinical practice. Autism Res 2017, 10: 508-519. © 2016 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

RECIPROCAL RESPONSIBILITY AND SOCIAL SUPPORT AMONG WOMEN IN SUBSTANCE USE RECOVERY*

PubMed Central

BRERETON, KATE L.; ALVAREZ, JOSEFINA; JASON, LEONARD A.; STEVENS, EDWARD B.; DYSON, VIDA B.; MCNEILLY, CATHERINE; FERRARI, JOSEPH R.

2014-01-01

This study sought to identify individual- and house-level predictors of women's employment, education, and retention in self-run recovery homes. Data from a national study of 292 women in Oxford House, an international organization of recovery homes grounded on self-help/mutual aid and 12-step principles were analyzed. Results indicated that the house's Reciprocal Responsibility predicted number of days of paid work. Individual and house variables did not predict participation in education. The presence of recovery home members in personal social networks was statistically significant in predicting retention in the recovery home. Lastly, results indicated that number of days of paid work were not predictive of likelihood of substance use in the next 12 months. The findings of this study indicate that the ability to develop social networks and Reciprocal Responsibility in recovery homes can contribute to positive outcomes for women. PMID:25530699

RECIPROCAL RESPONSIBILITY AND SOCIAL SUPPORT AMONG WOMEN IN SUBSTANCE USE RECOVERY.

PubMed

Brereton, Kate L; Alvarez, Josefina; Jason, Leonard A; Stevens, Edward B; Dyson, Vida B; McNeilly, Catherine; Ferrari, Joseph R

2014-01-01

This study sought to identify individual- and house-level predictors of women's employment, education, and retention in self-run recovery homes. Data from a national study of 292 women in Oxford House, an international organization of recovery homes grounded on self-help/mutual aid and 12-step principles were analyzed. Results indicated that the house's Reciprocal Responsibility predicted number of days of paid work. Individual and house variables did not predict participation in education. The presence of recovery home members in personal social networks was statistically significant in predicting retention in the recovery home. Lastly, results indicated that number of days of paid work were not predictive of likelihood of substance use in the next 12 months. The findings of this study indicate that the ability to develop social networks and Reciprocal Responsibility in recovery homes can contribute to positive outcomes for women.

Developing Watershed Level Indicators for Predicting Aquatic Condition in Stream Networks

EPA Science Inventory

Landscape level information is critical for resource managers to monitor, assess and prioritize protection and restoration efforts within individual watersheds. Spatial landscape indicators incorporate information on natural infrastructure (undeveloped and vegetated riparian area...

Airborne Monitoring of Harmful Algal Blooms over Lake Erie

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tokars, Roger; Lekki, John

2013-01-01

The Hyperspectral Imager mounted to an aircraft was used to develop a remote sensing capability to detect the pigment Phycocyanin, an indicator of Microcystis, in low concentration as an early indicator of harmful algal bloom prediction.

Use of statistical and neural net approaches in predicting toxicity of chemicals.

PubMed

Basak, S C; Grunwald, G D; Gute, B D; Balasubramanian, K; Opitz, D

2000-01-01

Hierarchical quantitative structure-activity relationships (H-QSAR) have been developed as a new approach in constructing models for estimating physicochemical, biomedicinal, and toxicological properties of interest. This approach uses increasingly more complex molecular descriptors in a graduated approach to model building. In this study, statistical and neural network methods have been applied to the development of H-QSAR models for estimating the acute aquatic toxicity (LC50) of 69 benzene derivatives to Pimephales promelas (fathead minnow). Topostructural, topochemical, geometrical, and quantum chemical indices were used as the four levels of the hierarchical method. It is clear from both the statistical and neural network models that topostructural indices alone cannot adequately model this set of congeneric chemicals. Not surprisingly, topochemical indices greatly increase the predictive power of both statistical and neural network models. Quantum chemical indices also add significantly to the modeling of this set of acute aquatic toxicity data.

Sensitivity, Specificity, PPV, and NPV for Predictive Biomarkers

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Molecularly targeted cancer drugs are often developed with companion diagnostics that attempt to identify which patients will have better outcome on the new drug than the control regimen. Such predictive biomarkers are playing an increasingly important role in precision oncology. For diagnostic tests, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive are usually used as performance measures. This paper discusses these indices for predictive biomarkers, provides methods for their calculation with survival or response endpoints, and describes assumptions involved in their use. PMID:26109105

Experiments on the Acoustics of Whistling.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shadle, Christine H.

1983-01-01

The acoustics of speech production allows the prediction of resonances for a given vocal tract configuration. Combining these predictions with aerodynamic theory developed for mechanical whistles makes theories about human whistling more complete. Several experiments involving human whistling are reported which support the theory and indicate new…

Predictive Modeling of a Fecal Indicator at a Subtropical Marine Beach

EPA Science Inventory

The Virtual Beach Model Builder (VBMB) is a software tool that can be used to develop predictive models at beaches based on microbial data and observations (explanatory variables) that describe hydrometeorological and biogeochemical conditions. During the summer of 2008, a study...

Prediction of main factors’ values of air transportation system safety based on system dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spiridonov, A. Yu; Rezchikov, A. F.; Kushnikov, V. A.; Ivashchenko, V. A.; Bogomolov, A. S.; Filimonyuk, L. Yu; Dolinina, O. N.; Kushnikova, E. V.; Shulga, T. E.; Tverdokhlebov, V. A.; Kushnikov, O. V.; Fominykh, D. S.

2018-05-01

On the basis of the system-dynamic approach [1-8], a set of models has been developed that makes it possible to analyse and predict the values of the main safety indicators for the operation of aviation transport systems.

The Winding Paths of the Lonesome Cowboy: Evidence for Mutual Influences Between Personality, Subjective Health, and Loneliness.

PubMed

Mund, Marcus; Neyer, Franz J

2016-10-01

Prior research demonstrated influences of personality traits and their development on later status of subjective health and loneliness. In the present study, we intended to extend these findings by examining mutual influences between health-related characteristics and personality traits and their development over time. German adults were assessed at two time points across 15 years (NT1  = 654, NT2  = 271; Mage at Time 1 = 24.39, SD = 3.69). Data were analyzed with multivariate structural equation models and a multivariate latent change model. Neuroticism was found to predict later levels and the development of subjective health and loneliness. While subjective health likewise predicted later levels of Neuroticism, loneliness was found to be predictive of later levels as well as the development of Neuroticism, Extraversion, and Conscientiousness. Correlated changes indicated that developing a socially more desirable personality is associated with slower declines in subjective health and slower increases in loneliness. The findings indicate that characteristics related to an individual's health are reciprocally associated with personality traits. Thus, the study adds to the understanding of the development of personality and health-related characteristics. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Prediction of drug indications based on chemical interactions and chemical similarities.

PubMed

Huang, Guohua; Lu, Yin; Lu, Changhong; Zheng, Mingyue; Cai, Yu-Dong

2015-01-01

Discovering potential indications of novel or approved drugs is a key step in drug development. Previous computational approaches could be categorized into disease-centric and drug-centric based on the starting point of the issues or small-scaled application and large-scale application according to the diversity of the datasets. Here, a classifier has been constructed to predict the indications of a drug based on the assumption that interactive/associated drugs or drugs with similar structures are more likely to target the same diseases using a large drug indication dataset. To examine the classifier, it was conducted on a dataset with 1,573 drugs retrieved from Comprehensive Medicinal Chemistry database for five times, evaluated by 5-fold cross-validation, yielding five 1st order prediction accuracies that were all approximately 51.48%. Meanwhile, the model yielded an accuracy rate of 50.00% for the 1st order prediction by independent test on a dataset with 32 other drugs in which drug repositioning has been confirmed. Interestingly, some clinically repurposed drug indications that were not included in the datasets are successfully identified by our method. These results suggest that our method may become a useful tool to associate novel molecules with new indications or alternative indications with existing drugs.

Prediction of Drug Indications Based on Chemical Interactions and Chemical Similarities

PubMed Central

Huang, Guohua; Lu, Yin; Lu, Changhong; Cai, Yu-Dong

2015-01-01

Discovering potential indications of novel or approved drugs is a key step in drug development. Previous computational approaches could be categorized into disease-centric and drug-centric based on the starting point of the issues or small-scaled application and large-scale application according to the diversity of the datasets. Here, a classifier has been constructed to predict the indications of a drug based on the assumption that interactive/associated drugs or drugs with similar structures are more likely to target the same diseases using a large drug indication dataset. To examine the classifier, it was conducted on a dataset with 1,573 drugs retrieved from Comprehensive Medicinal Chemistry database for five times, evaluated by 5-fold cross-validation, yielding five 1st order prediction accuracies that were all approximately 51.48%. Meanwhile, the model yielded an accuracy rate of 50.00% for the 1st order prediction by independent test on a dataset with 32 other drugs in which drug repositioning has been confirmed. Interestingly, some clinically repurposed drug indications that were not included in the datasets are successfully identified by our method. These results suggest that our method may become a useful tool to associate novel molecules with new indications or alternative indications with existing drugs. PMID:25821813

Statistical prediction of dynamic distortion of inlet flow using minimum dynamic measurement. An application to the Melick statistical method and inlet flow dynamic distortion prediction without RMS measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schweikhard, W. G.; Chen, Y. S.

1986-01-01

The Melick method of inlet flow dynamic distortion prediction by statistical means is outlined. A hypothetic vortex model is used as the basis for the mathematical formulations. The main variables are identified by matching the theoretical total pressure rms ratio with the measured total pressure rms ratio. Data comparisons, using the HiMAT inlet test data set, indicate satisfactory prediction of the dynamic peak distortion for cases with boundary layer control device vortex generators. A method for the dynamic probe selection was developed. Validity of the probe selection criteria is demonstrated by comparing the reduced-probe predictions with the 40-probe predictions. It is indicated that the the number of dynamic probes can be reduced to as few as two and still retain good accuracy.

Lipoprotein metabolism indicators improve cardiovascular risk prediction

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Background: Cardiovascular disease risk increases when lipoprotein metabolism is dysfunctional. We have developed a computational model able to derive indicators of lipoprotein production, lipolysis, and uptake processes from a single lipoprotein profile measurement. This is the first study to inves...

Predictive sensor method and apparatus

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cambridge, Vivien J.; Koger, Thomas L.

1993-01-01

A microprocessor and electronics package employing predictive methodology was developed to accelerate the response time of slowly responding hydrogen sensors. The system developed improved sensor response time from approximately 90 seconds to 8.5 seconds. The microprocessor works in real-time providing accurate hydrogen concentration corrected for fluctuations in sensor output resulting from changes in atmospheric pressure and temperature. Following the successful development of the hydrogen sensor system, the system and predictive methodology was adapted to a commercial medical thermometer probe. Results of the experiment indicate that, with some customization of hardware and software, response time improvements are possible for medical thermometers as well as other slowly responding sensors.

Artificial neural network models for prediction of cardiovascular autonomic dysfunction in general Chinese population

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The present study aimed to develop an artificial neural network (ANN) based prediction model for cardiovascular autonomic (CA) dysfunction in the general population. Methods We analyzed a previous dataset based on a population sample consisted of 2,092 individuals aged 30–80 years. The prediction models were derived from an exploratory set using ANN analysis. Performances of these prediction models were evaluated in the validation set. Results Univariate analysis indicated that 14 risk factors showed statistically significant association with CA dysfunction (P < 0.05). The mean area under the receiver-operating curve was 0.762 (95% CI 0.732–0.793) for prediction model developed using ANN analysis. The mean sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were similar in the prediction models was 0.751, 0.665, 0.330 and 0.924, respectively. All HL statistics were less than 15.0. Conclusion ANN is an effective tool for developing prediction models with high value for predicting CA dysfunction among the general population. PMID:23902963

A Bayesian network approach to predicting nest presence of thefederally-threatened piping plover (Charadrius melodus) using barrier island features

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gieder, Katherina D.; Karpanty, Sarah M.; Fraser, James D.; Catlin, Daniel H.; Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Turecek, Aaron M.; Thieler, E. Robert

2014-01-01

Sea-level rise and human development pose significant threats to shorebirds, particularly for species that utilize barrier island habitat. The piping plover (Charadrius melodus) is a federally-listed shorebird that nests on barrier islands and rapidly responds to changes in its physical environment, making it an excellent species with which to model how shorebird species may respond to habitat change related to sea-level rise and human development. The uncertainty and complexity in predicting sea-level rise, the responses of barrier island habitats to sea-level rise, and the responses of species to sea-level rise and human development necessitate a modelling approach that can link species to the physical habitat features that will be altered by changes in sea level and human development. We used a Bayesian network framework to develop a model that links piping plover nest presence to the physical features of their nesting habitat on a barrier island that is impacted by sea-level rise and human development, using three years of data (1999, 2002, and 2008) from Assateague Island National Seashore in Maryland. Our model performance results showed that we were able to successfully predict nest presence given a wide range of physical conditions within the model’s dataset. We found that model predictions were more successful when the range of physical conditions included in model development was varied rather than when those physical conditions were narrow. We also found that all model predictions had fewer false negatives (nests predicted to be absent when they were actually present in the dataset) than false positives (nests predicted to be present when they were actually absent in the dataset), indicating that our model correctly predicted nest presence better than nest absence. These results indicated that our approach of using a Bayesian network to link specific physical features to nest presence will be useful for modelling impacts of sea-level rise- or human-related habitat change on barrier islands. We recommend that potential users of this method utilize multiple years of data that represent a wide range of physical conditions in model development, because the model performed less well when constructed using a narrow range of physical conditions. Further, given that there will always be some uncertainty in predictions of future physical habitat conditions related to sea-level rise and/or human development, predictive models will perform best when developed using multiple, varied years of data input.

Dispersion development program. [development of a fin stabilized submissile and ejection system for the Little John warhead

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carlson, D. J.; Lusardi, R. J.; Phillips, W. H.

1975-01-01

The requirement for the predictable dispersion of small munitions over large areas from ground support missile systems has resulted in the development of a fin stabilized submissile and sling ejection system for the Little John warhead. The progressive development of this system is traced including a comparison of simulator, sled test, and flight test results. The results indicate that it is not only necessary but also possible to eject long slender bodies, from a missile warhead at Mach 1, in a stable, uniform and predictable manner.

Corruption, development and governance indicators predict invasive species risk from trade

PubMed Central

Brenton-Rule, Evan C.; Barbieri, Rafael F.; Lester, Philip J.

2016-01-01

Invasive species have an enormous global impact, with international trade being the leading pathway for their introduction. Current multinational trade deals under negotiation will dramatically change trading partnerships and pathways. These changes have considerable potential to influence biological invasions and global biodiversity. Using a database of 47 328 interceptions spanning 10 years, we demonstrate how development and governance socio-economic indicators of trading partners can predict exotic species interceptions. For import pathways associated with vegetable material, a significantly higher risk of exotic species interceptions was associated with countries that are poorly regulated, have more forest cover and have surprisingly low corruption. Corruption and indicators such as political stability or adherence to rule of law were important in vehicle or timber import pathways. These results will be of considerable value to policy makers, primarily by shifting quarantine procedures to focus on countries of high risk based on their socio-economic status. Further, using New Zealand as an example, we demonstrate how a ninefold reduction in incursions could be achieved if socio-economic indicators were used to select trade partners. International trade deals that ignore governance and development indicators may facilitate introductions and biodiversity loss. Development and governance within countries clearly have biodiversity implications beyond borders. PMID:27306055

Corruption, development and governance indicators predict invasive species risk from trade.

PubMed

Brenton-Rule, Evan C; Barbieri, Rafael F; Lester, Philip J

2016-06-15

Invasive species have an enormous global impact, with international trade being the leading pathway for their introduction. Current multinational trade deals under negotiation will dramatically change trading partnerships and pathways. These changes have considerable potential to influence biological invasions and global biodiversity. Using a database of 47 328 interceptions spanning 10 years, we demonstrate how development and governance socio-economic indicators of trading partners can predict exotic species interceptions. For import pathways associated with vegetable material, a significantly higher risk of exotic species interceptions was associated with countries that are poorly regulated, have more forest cover and have surprisingly low corruption. Corruption and indicators such as political stability or adherence to rule of law were important in vehicle or timber import pathways. These results will be of considerable value to policy makers, primarily by shifting quarantine procedures to focus on countries of high risk based on their socio-economic status. Further, using New Zealand as an example, we demonstrate how a ninefold reduction in incursions could be achieved if socio-economic indicators were used to select trade partners. International trade deals that ignore governance and development indicators may facilitate introductions and biodiversity loss. Development and governance within countries clearly have biodiversity implications beyond borders. © 2016 The Author(s).

Differential evolution-based multi-objective optimization for the definition of a health indicator for fault diagnostics and prognostics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baraldi, P.; Bonfanti, G.; Zio, E.

2018-03-01

The identification of the current degradation state of an industrial component and the prediction of its future evolution is a fundamental step for the development of condition-based and predictive maintenance approaches. The objective of the present work is to propose a general method for extracting a health indicator to measure the amount of component degradation from a set of signals measured during operation. The proposed method is based on the combined use of feature extraction techniques, such as Empirical Mode Decomposition and Auto-Associative Kernel Regression, and a multi-objective Binary Differential Evolution (BDE) algorithm for selecting the subset of features optimal for the definition of the health indicator. The objectives of the optimization are desired characteristics of the health indicator, such as monotonicity, trendability and prognosability. A case study is considered, concerning the prediction of the remaining useful life of turbofan engines. The obtained results confirm that the method is capable of extracting health indicators suitable for accurate prognostics.

Synchrophasor-Assisted Prediction of Stability/Instability of a Power System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saha Roy, Biman Kumar; Sinha, Avinash Kumar; Pradhan, Ashok Kumar

2013-05-01

This paper presents a technique for real-time prediction of stability/instability of a power system based on synchrophasor measurements obtained from phasor measurement units (PMUs) at generator buses. For stability assessment the technique makes use of system severity indices developed using bus voltage magnitude obtained from PMUs and generator electrical power. Generator power is computed using system information and PMU information like voltage and current phasors obtained from PMU. System stability/instability is predicted when the indices exceeds a threshold value. A case study is carried out on New England 10-generator, 39-bus system to validate the performance of the technique.

EFFECTS OF WATERSHED DISTURBANCE ON SMALL STREAMS

EPA Science Inventory

This presentation presents the effects of watershed disturbance on small streams. The South Fork Broad River Watershed was studied to evaluate the use of landscape indicators to predict pollutant loading at small spatial scales and to develop indicators of pollutants. Also studie...

Quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) for insecticides: development of predictive in vivo insecticide activity models.

PubMed

Naik, P K; Singh, T; Singh, H

2009-07-01

Quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) analyses were performed independently on data sets belonging to two groups of insecticides, namely the organophosphates and carbamates. Several types of descriptors including topological, spatial, thermodynamic, information content, lead likeness and E-state indices were used to derive quantitative relationships between insecticide activities and structural properties of chemicals. A systematic search approach based on missing value, zero value, simple correlation and multi-collinearity tests as well as the use of a genetic algorithm allowed the optimal selection of the descriptors used to generate the models. The QSAR models developed for both organophosphate and carbamate groups revealed good predictability with r(2) values of 0.949 and 0.838 as well as [image omitted] values of 0.890 and 0.765, respectively. In addition, a linear correlation was observed between the predicted and experimental LD(50) values for the test set data with r(2) of 0.871 and 0.788 for both the organophosphate and carbamate groups, indicating that the prediction accuracy of the QSAR models was acceptable. The models were also tested successfully from external validation criteria. QSAR models developed in this study should help further design of novel potent insecticides.

Acquisition of automatic imitation is sensitive to sensorimotor contingency.

PubMed

Cook, Richard; Press, Clare; Dickinson, Anthony; Heyes, Cecilia

2010-08-01

The associative sequence learning model proposes that the development of the mirror system depends on the same mechanisms of associative learning that mediate Pavlovian and instrumental conditioning. To test this model, two experiments used the reduction of automatic imitation through incompatible sensorimotor training to assess whether mirror system plasticity is sensitive to contingency (i.e., the extent to which activation of one representation predicts activation of another). In Experiment 1, residual automatic imitation was measured following incompatible training in which the action stimulus was a perfect predictor of the response (contingent) or not at all predictive of the response (noncontingent). A contingency effect was observed: There was less automatic imitation indicative of more learning in the contingent group. Experiment 2 replicated this contingency effect and showed that, as predicted by associative learning theory, it can be abolished by signaling trials in which the response occurs in the absence of an action stimulus. These findings support the view that mirror system development depends on associative learning and indicate that this learning is not purely Hebbian. If this is correct, associative learning theory could be used to explain, predict, and intervene in mirror system development.

Predicting First Graders' Development of Calculation versus Word-Problem Performance: The Role of Dynamic Assessment.

PubMed

Seethaler, Pamela M; Fuchs, Lynn S; Fuchs, Douglas; Compton, Donald L

2012-02-01

The purpose of this study was to assess the value of dynamic assessment (DA; degree of scaffolding required to learn unfamiliar mathematics content) for predicting 1(st)-grade calculations (CA) and word problems (WP) development, while controlling for the role of traditional assessments. Among 184 1(st) graders, predictors (DA, Quantity Discrimination, Test of Mathematics Ability, language, and reasoning) were assessed near the start of 1(st) grade. CA and WP were assessed near the end of 1(st) grade. Planned regression and commonality analyses indicated that for forecasting CA development, Quantity Discrimination, which accounted for 8.84% of explained variance, was the single most powerful predictor, followed by Test of Mathematics Ability and DA; language and reasoning were not uniquely predictive. By contrast, for predicting WP development, DA was the single most powerful predictor, which accounted for 12.01% of explained variance, with Test of Mathematics Ability, Quantity Discrimination, and language also uniquely predictive. Results suggest that different constellations of cognitive resources are required for CA versus WP development and that DA may be useful in predicting 1(st)-grade mathematics development, especially WP.

Predicting First Graders’ Development of Calculation versus Word-Problem Performance: The Role of Dynamic Assessment

PubMed Central

Seethaler, Pamela M.; Fuchs, Lynn S.; Fuchs, Douglas; Compton, Donald L.

2012-01-01

The purpose of this study was to assess the value of dynamic assessment (DA; degree of scaffolding required to learn unfamiliar mathematics content) for predicting 1st-grade calculations (CA) and word problems (WP) development, while controlling for the role of traditional assessments. Among 184 1st graders, predictors (DA, Quantity Discrimination, Test of Mathematics Ability, language, and reasoning) were assessed near the start of 1st grade. CA and WP were assessed near the end of 1st grade. Planned regression and commonality analyses indicated that for forecasting CA development, Quantity Discrimination, which accounted for 8.84% of explained variance, was the single most powerful predictor, followed by Test of Mathematics Ability and DA; language and reasoning were not uniquely predictive. By contrast, for predicting WP development, DA was the single most powerful predictor, which accounted for 12.01% of explained variance, with Test of Mathematics Ability, Quantity Discrimination, and language also uniquely predictive. Results suggest that different constellations of cognitive resources are required for CA versus WP development and that DA may be useful in predicting 1st-grade mathematics development, especially WP. PMID:22347725

Development of on package indicator sensor for real-time monitoring of meat quality

PubMed Central

Shukla, Vivek; Kandeepan, G.; Vishnuraj, M. R.

2015-01-01

Aim: The aim was to develop an indicator sensor for real-time monitoring of meat quality and to compare the response of indicator sensor with meat quality parameters at ambient temperature. Materials and Methods: Indicator sensor was prepared using bromophenol blue (1% w/v) as indicator solution and filter paper as indicator carrier. Indicator sensor was fabricated by coating indicator solution onto carrier by centrifugation. To observe the response of indicator sensor buffalo meat was packed in polystyrene foam trays covered with PVC film and indicator sensor was attached to the inner side of packaging film. The pattern of color change in indicator sensor was monitored and compared with meat quality parameters viz. total volatile basic nitrogen, D-glucose, standard plate count and tyrosine value to correlate ability of indicator sensor for its suitability to predict the meat quality and storage life. Results: The indicator sensor changed its color from yellow to blue starting from margins during the storage period of 24 h at ambient temperature and this correlated well with changes in meat quality parameters. Conclusions: The indicator sensor can be used for real-time monitoring of meat quality as the color of indicator sensor changed from yellow to blue starting from margins when meat deteriorates with advancement of the storage period. Thus by observing the color of indicator sensor quality of meat and shelf life can be predicted. PMID:27047103

Modeling the prediction of business intelligence system effectiveness.

PubMed

Weng, Sung-Shun; Yang, Ming-Hsien; Koo, Tian-Lih; Hsiao, Pei-I

2016-01-01

Although business intelligence (BI) technologies are continually evolving, the capability to apply BI technologies has become an indispensable resource for enterprises running in today's complex, uncertain and dynamic business environment. This study performed pioneering work by constructing models and rules for the prediction of business intelligence system effectiveness (BISE) in relation to the implementation of BI solutions. For enterprises, effectively managing critical attributes that determine BISE to develop prediction models with a set of rules for self-evaluation of the effectiveness of BI solutions is necessary to improve BI implementation and ensure its success. The main study findings identified the critical prediction indicators of BISE that are important to forecasting BI performance and highlighted five classification and prediction rules of BISE derived from decision tree structures, as well as a refined regression prediction model with four critical prediction indicators constructed by logistic regression analysis that can enable enterprises to improve BISE while effectively managing BI solution implementation and catering to academics to whom theory is important.

Racial and Ego Identity Development in Black Caribbean College Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sanchez, Delida

2013-01-01

This study explored the relationships between racial identity attitudes and ego identity statuses among 255 Black Caribbean college students in the Northeast United States. Findings indicated that racial identity attitudes were predictive of ego identity statuses. Specifically, preencounter racial identity attitudes were predictive of lower scores…

Key Skills Influencing Student Achievement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Balch, Tonya; Gruenert, Steve

2009-01-01

A predictive, non-experimental, cross-sectional design (Johnson, 2001) was used to conduct a study to determine if elementary administrators' key counseling skills and select demographics predicted state-level student performance indicators in their respective schools. A secondary purpose of this study was to develop a valid and reliable on-line…

Developing a Predictive Metric to Assess School Viability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

James, John T.; Tichy, Karen L.; Collins, Alan; Schwob, John

2008-01-01

This article examines a wide range of parish school indicators that can be used to predict long-term viability. The study reported in this article explored the relationship between demographic variables, financial variables, and parish grade school closures in the Archdiocese of Saint Louis. Specifically, this study investigated whether…

Emotional exhaustion and workload predict clinician-rated and objective patient safety

PubMed Central

Welp, Annalena; Meier, Laurenz L.; Manser, Tanja

2015-01-01

Aims: To investigate the role of clinician burnout, demographic, and organizational characteristics in predicting subjective and objective indicators of patient safety. Background: Maintaining clinician health and ensuring safe patient care are important goals for hospitals. While these goals are not independent from each other, the interplay between clinician psychological health, demographic and organizational variables, and objective patient safety indicators is poorly understood. The present study addresses this gap. Method: Participants were 1425 physicians and nurses working in intensive care. Regression analysis (multilevel) was used to investigate the effect of burnout as an indicator of psychological health, demographic (e.g., professional role and experience) and organizational (e.g., workload, predictability) characteristics on standardized mortality ratios, length of stay and clinician-rated patient safety. Results: Clinician-rated patient safety was associated with burnout, trainee status, and professional role. Mortality was predicted by emotional exhaustion. Length of stay was predicted by workload. Contrary to our expectations, burnout did not predict length of stay, and workload and predictability did not predict standardized mortality ratios. Conclusion: At least in the short-term, clinicians seem to be able to maintain safety despite high workload and low predictability. Nevertheless, burnout poses a safety risk. Subjectively, burnt-out clinicians rated safety lower, and objectively, units with high emotional exhaustion had higher standardized mortality ratios. In summary, our results indicate that clinician psychological health and patient safety could be managed simultaneously. Further research needs to establish causal relationships between these variables and support to the development of managerial guidelines to ensure clinicians’ psychological health and patients’ safety. PMID:25657627

Bridging a translational gap: using machine learning to improve the prediction of PTSD.

PubMed

Karstoft, Karen-Inge; Galatzer-Levy, Isaac R; Statnikov, Alexander; Li, Zhiguo; Shalev, Arieh Y

2015-03-16

Predicting Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) is a pre-requisite for targeted prevention. Current research has identified group-level risk-indicators, many of which (e.g., head trauma, receiving opiates) concern but a subset of survivors. Identifying interchangeable sets of risk indicators may increase the efficiency of early risk assessment. The study goal is to use supervised machine learning (ML) to uncover interchangeable, maximally predictive combinations of early risk indicators. Data variables (features) reflecting event characteristics, emergency department (ED) records and early symptoms were collected in 957 trauma survivors within ten days of ED admission, and used to predict PTSD symptom trajectories during the following fifteen months. A Target Information Equivalence Algorithm (TIE*) identified all minimal sets of features (Markov Boundaries; MBs) that maximized the prediction of a non-remitting PTSD symptom trajectory when integrated in a support vector machine (SVM). The predictive accuracy of each set of predictors was evaluated in a repeated 10-fold cross-validation and expressed as average area under the Receiver Operating Characteristics curve (AUC) for all validation trials. The average number of MBs per cross validation was 800. MBs' mean AUC was 0.75 (95% range: 0.67-0.80). The average number of features per MB was 18 (range: 12-32) with 13 features present in over 75% of the sets. Our findings support the hypothesized existence of multiple and interchangeable sets of risk indicators that equally and exhaustively predict non-remitting PTSD. ML's ability to increase prediction versatility is a promising step towards developing algorithmic, knowledge-based, personalized prediction of post-traumatic psychopathology.

Predicting protein interactions by Brownian dynamics simulations.

PubMed

Meng, Xuan-Yu; Xu, Yu; Zhang, Hong-Xing; Mezei, Mihaly; Cui, Meng

2012-01-01

We present a newly adapted Brownian-Dynamics (BD)-based protein docking method for predicting native protein complexes. The approach includes global BD conformational sampling, compact complex selection, and local energy minimization. In order to reduce the computational costs for energy evaluations, a shell-based grid force field was developed to represent the receptor protein and solvation effects. The performance of this BD protein docking approach has been evaluated on a test set of 24 crystal protein complexes. Reproduction of experimental structures in the test set indicates the adequate conformational sampling and accurate scoring of this BD protein docking approach. Furthermore, we have developed an approach to account for the flexibility of proteins, which has been successfully applied to reproduce the experimental complex structure from the structure of two unbounded proteins. These results indicate that this adapted BD protein docking approach can be useful for the prediction of protein-protein interactions.

On global gravity anomalies and two-scale mantle convection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marsh, B. D.; Marsh, J. G.

1976-01-01

The two-scale model of mantle convection developed by Richter and Parsons (1975) predicts that if the depth of the convective layer is about 600 km, then for a plate moving at 10 cm/yr, longitudinal convective rolls will be produced in about 50 million years, and the strike of these rolls indicates the direction of motion of the plate relative to the upper mantle. The paper tests these predictions by examining a new global free air gravity model complete to the 30th degree and order. The free air gravity map developed shows a series of linear positive and negative anomalies (with transverse wavelengths of about 2000 km) spanning the Pacific Ocean, crossing the Pacific rise and striking parallel to the Hawaiian seamounts. It is suggested that the pattern of these anomalies may indicate the presence of longitudinal convective rolls beneath the Pacific plates, a result which tends to support the predictions of Richter and Parsons.

A statistical approach based on accumulated degree-days to predict decomposition-related processes in forensic studies.

PubMed

Michaud, Jean-Philippe; Moreau, Gaétan

2011-01-01

Using pig carcasses exposed over 3 years in rural fields during spring, summer, and fall, we studied the relationship between decomposition stages and degree-day accumulation (i) to verify the predictability of the decomposition stages used in forensic entomology to document carcass decomposition and (ii) to build a degree-day accumulation model applicable to various decomposition-related processes. Results indicate that the decomposition stages can be predicted with accuracy from temperature records and that a reliable degree-day index can be developed to study decomposition-related processes. The development of degree-day indices opens new doors for researchers and allows for the application of inferential tools unaffected by climatic variability, as well as for the inclusion of statistics in a science that is primarily descriptive and in need of validation methods in courtroom proceedings. © 2010 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Gauging climate change effects at local scales: weather-based indices to monitor insect harassment in caribou.

PubMed

Witter, Leslie A; Johnson, Chris J; Croft, Bruno; Gunn, Anne; Poirier, Lisa M

2012-09-01

Climate change is occurring at an accelerated rate in the Arctic. Insect harassment may be an important link between increased summer temperature and reduced body condition in caribou and reindeer (both Rangifer tarandus). To examine the effects of climate change at a scale relevant to Rangifer herds, we developed monitoring indices using weather to predict activity of parasitic insects across the central Arctic. During 2007-2009, we recorded weather conditions and used carbon dioxide baited traps to monitor activity of mosquitoes (Culicidae), black flies (Simuliidae), and oestrid flies (Oestridae) on the post-calving and summer range of the Bathurst barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus) herd in Northwest Territories and Nunavut, Canada. We developed statistical models representing hypotheses about effects of weather, habitat, location, and temporal variables on insect activity. We used multinomial logistic regression to model mosquito and black fly activity, and logistic regression to model oestrid fly presence. We used information theory to select models to predict activity levels of insects. Using historical weather data, we used hindcasting to develop a chronology of insect activity on the Bathurst range from 1957 to 2008. Oestrid presence and mosquito and black fly activity levels were explained by temperature. Wind speed, light intensity, barometric pressure, relative humidity, vegetation, topography, location, time of day, and growing degree-days also affected mosquito and black fly levels. High predictive ability of all models justified the use of weather to index insect activity. Retrospective analyses indicated conditions favoring mosquito activity declined since the late 1950s, while predicted black fly and oestrid activity increased. Our indices can be used as monitoring tools to gauge potential changes in insect harassment due to climate change at scales relevant to caribou herds.

A Bayesian network to predict coastal vulnerability to sea level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gutierrez, B.T.; Plant, N.G.; Thieler, E.R.

2011-01-01

Sea level rise during the 21st century will have a wide range of effects on coastal environments, human development, and infrastructure in coastal areas. The broad range of complex factors influencing coastal systems contributes to large uncertainties in predicting long-term sea level rise impacts. Here we explore and demonstrate the capabilities of a Bayesian network (BN) to predict long-term shoreline change associated with sea level rise and make quantitative assessments of prediction uncertainty. A BN is used to define relationships between driving forces, geologic constraints, and coastal response for the U.S. Atlantic coast that include observations of local rates of relative sea level rise, wave height, tide range, geomorphic classification, coastal slope, and shoreline change rate. The BN is used to make probabilistic predictions of shoreline retreat in response to different future sea level rise rates. Results demonstrate that the probability of shoreline retreat increases with higher rates of sea level rise. Where more specific information is included, the probability of shoreline change increases in a number of cases, indicating more confident predictions. A hindcast evaluation of the BN indicates that the network correctly predicts 71% of the cases. Evaluation of the results using Brier skill and log likelihood ratio scores indicates that the network provides shoreline change predictions that are better than the prior probability. Shoreline change outcomes indicating stability (-1 1 m/yr) was not well predicted. We find that BNs can assimilate important factors contributing to coastal change in response to sea level rise and can make quantitative, probabilistic predictions that can be applied to coastal management decisions. Copyright ?? 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Examining the Self-Development Test for Race and Gender Fairness

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-07-01

apication of kowledge and the MOS Knowledge item involved direct knowledge. SDT verion SSM(2) contained three such MOS Knowledge items. Two required...and not its purpose as an indicator of motivation and ability to learn, is what gives it its power to predict performance at the next rank. However...then it should not be used regardless of its fairness. Related to the predictive power of the SDT is the mechanism by which it predicts. If it predicts

Turboexpander calculations using a generalized equation of state correlation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Han, M.S.; Starling, K.E.

1975-01-01

A generalized method for predicting the thermodynamic properties of natural gas fluids has been developed and tested. The results of several comparisons between thermodynamic property values predicted by the method and experimental data are presented. Comparisons of predicted and experimental vapor-liquid equilibrium are presented. These comparisons indicate that the generalized correlation can be used to predict many thermodynamic properties of natural gas and LNG. Turboexpander calculations are presented to show the utility of the generalized correlation for process design calculations.

LBSizeCleav: improved support vector machine (SVM)-based prediction of Dicer cleavage sites using loop/bulge length.

PubMed

Bao, Yu; Hayashida, Morihiro; Akutsu, Tatsuya

2016-11-25

Dicer is necessary for the process of mature microRNA (miRNA) formation because the Dicer enzyme cleaves pre-miRNA correctly to generate miRNA with correct seed regions. Nonetheless, the mechanism underlying the selection of a Dicer cleavage site is still not fully understood. To date, several studies have been conducted to solve this problem, for example, a recent discovery indicates that the loop/bulge structure plays a central role in the selection of Dicer cleavage sites. In accordance with this breakthrough, a support vector machine (SVM)-based method called PHDCleav was developed to predict Dicer cleavage sites which outperforms other methods based on random forest and naive Bayes. PHDCleav, however, tests only whether a position in the shift window belongs to a loop/bulge structure. In this paper, we used the length of loop/bulge structures (in addition to their presence or absence) to develop an improved method, LBSizeCleav, for predicting Dicer cleavage sites. To evaluate our method, we used 810 empirically validated sequences of human pre-miRNAs and performed fivefold cross-validation. In both 5p and 3p arms of pre-miRNAs, LBSizeCleav showed greater prediction accuracy than PHDCleav did. This result suggests that the length of loop/bulge structures is useful for prediction of Dicer cleavage sites. We developed a novel algorithm for feature space mapping based on the length of a loop/bulge for predicting Dicer cleavage sites. The better performance of our method indicates the usefulness of the length of loop/bulge structures for such predictions.

Progressive damage, fracture predictions and post mortem correlations for fiber composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1985-01-01

Lewis Research Center is involved in the development of computational mechanics methods for predicting the structural behavior and response of composite structures. In conjunction with the analytical methods development, experimental programs including post failure examination are conducted to study various factors affecting composite fracture such as laminate thickness effects, ply configuration, and notch sensitivity. Results indicate that the analytical capabilities incorporated in the CODSTRAN computer code are effective in predicting the progressive damage and fracture of composite structures. In addition, the results being generated are establishing a data base which will aid in the characterization of composite fracture.

Prediction of polypharmacological profiles of drugs by the integration of chemical, side effect, and therapeutic space.

PubMed

Cheng, Feixiong; Li, Weihua; Wu, Zengrui; Wang, Xichuan; Zhang, Chen; Li, Jie; Liu, Guixia; Tang, Yun

2013-04-22

Prediction of polypharmacological profiles of drugs enables us to investigate drug side effects and further find their new indications, i.e. drug repositioning, which could reduce the costs while increase the productivity of drug discovery. Here we describe a new computational framework to predict polypharmacological profiles of drugs by the integration of chemical, side effect, and therapeutic space. On the basis of our previous developed drug side effects database, named MetaADEDB, a drug side effect similarity inference (DSESI) method was developed for drug-target interaction (DTI) prediction on a known DTI network connecting 621 approved drugs and 893 target proteins. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.882 ± 0.011 averaged from 100 simulated tests of 10-fold cross-validation for the DSESI method, which is comparative with drug structural similarity inference and drug therapeutic similarity inference methods. Seven new predicted candidate target proteins for seven approved drugs were confirmed by published experiments, with the successful hit rate more than 15.9%. Moreover, network visualization of drug-target interactions and off-target side effect associations provide new mechanism-of-action of three approved antipsychotic drugs in a case study. The results indicated that the proposed methods could be helpful for prediction of polypharmacological profiles of drugs.

Machine learning study for the prediction of transdermal peptide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, Eunkyoung; Choi, Seung-Hoon; Lee, Nam Kyung; Kang, Sang-Kee; Choi, Yun-Jaie; Shin, Jae-Min; Choi, Kihang; Jung, Dong Hyun

2011-04-01

In order to develop a computational method to rapidly evaluate transdermal peptides, we report approaches for predicting the transdermal activity of peptides on the basis of peptide sequence information using Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Partial Least Squares (PLS) and Support Vector Machine (SVM). We identified 269 transdermal peptides by the phage display technique and use them as the positive controls to develop and test machine learning models. Combinations of three descriptors with neural network architectures, the number of latent variables and the kernel functions are tried in training to make appropriate predictions. The capacity of models is evaluated by means of statistical indicators including sensitivity, specificity, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC score). In the ROC score-based comparison, three methods proved capable of providing a reasonable prediction of transdermal peptide. The best result is obtained by SVM model with a radial basis function and VHSE descriptors. The results indicate that it is possible to discriminate between transdermal peptides and random sequences using our models. We anticipate that our models will be applicable to prediction of transdermal peptide for large peptide database for facilitating efficient transdermal drug delivery through intact skin.

A prediction model of drug-induced ototoxicity developed by an optimal support vector machine (SVM) method.

PubMed

Zhou, Shu; Li, Guo-Bo; Huang, Lu-Yi; Xie, Huan-Zhang; Zhao, Ying-Lan; Chen, Yu-Zong; Li, Lin-Li; Yang, Sheng-Yong

2014-08-01

Drug-induced ototoxicity, as a toxic side effect, is an important issue needed to be considered in drug discovery. Nevertheless, current experimental methods used to evaluate drug-induced ototoxicity are often time-consuming and expensive, indicating that they are not suitable for a large-scale evaluation of drug-induced ototoxicity in the early stage of drug discovery. We thus, in this investigation, established an effective computational prediction model of drug-induced ototoxicity using an optimal support vector machine (SVM) method, GA-CG-SVM. Three GA-CG-SVM models were developed based on three training sets containing agents bearing different risk levels of drug-induced ototoxicity. For comparison, models based on naïve Bayesian (NB) and recursive partitioning (RP) methods were also used on the same training sets. Among all the prediction models, the GA-CG-SVM model II showed the best performance, which offered prediction accuracies of 85.33% and 83.05% for two independent test sets, respectively. Overall, the good performance of the GA-CG-SVM model II indicates that it could be used for the prediction of drug-induced ototoxicity in the early stage of drug discovery. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Two approaches to estimating the effect of parenting on the development of executive function in early childhood.

PubMed

Blair, Clancy; Raver, C Cybele; Berry, Daniel J

2014-02-01

In the current article, we contrast 2 analytical approaches to estimate the relation of parenting to executive function development in a sample of 1,292 children assessed longitudinally between the ages of 36 and 60 months of age. Children were administered a newly developed and validated battery of 6 executive function tasks tapping inhibitory control, working memory, and attention shifting. Residualized change analysis indicated that higher quality parenting as indicated by higher scores on widely used measures of parenting at both earlier and later time points predicted more positive gain in executive function at 60 months. Latent change score models in which parenting and executive function over time were held to standards of longitudinal measurement invariance provided additional evidence of the association between change in parenting quality and change in executive function. In these models, cross-lagged paths indicated that in addition to parenting predicting change in executive function, executive function bidirectionally predicted change in parenting quality. Results were robust with the addition of covariates, including child sex, race, maternal education, and household income-to-need. Strengths and drawbacks of the 2 analytic approaches are discussed, and the findings are considered in light of emerging methodological innovations for testing the extent to which executive function is malleable and open to the influence of experience.

Financial Distress Prediction Using Discrete-time Hazard Model and Rating Transition Matrix Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, Bi-Huei; Chang, Chih-Huei

2009-08-01

Previous studies used constant cut-off indicator to distinguish distressed firms from non-distressed ones in the one-stage prediction models. However, distressed cut-off indicator must shift according to economic prosperity, rather than remains fixed all the time. This study focuses on Taiwanese listed firms and develops financial distress prediction models based upon the two-stage method. First, this study employs the firm-specific financial ratio and market factors to measure the probability of financial distress based on the discrete-time hazard models. Second, this paper further focuses on macroeconomic factors and applies rating transition matrix approach to determine the distressed cut-off indicator. The prediction models are developed by using the training sample from 1987 to 2004, and their levels of accuracy are compared with the test sample from 2005 to 2007. As for the one-stage prediction model, the model in incorporation with macroeconomic factors does not perform better than that without macroeconomic factors. This suggests that the accuracy is not improved for one-stage models which pool the firm-specific and macroeconomic factors together. In regards to the two stage models, the negative credit cycle index implies the worse economic status during the test period, so the distressed cut-off point is adjusted to increase based on such negative credit cycle index. After the two-stage models employ such adjusted cut-off point to discriminate the distressed firms from non-distressed ones, their error of misclassification becomes lower than that of one-stage ones. The two-stage models presented in this paper have incremental usefulness in predicting financial distress.

Ovary transcriptome profiling via artificial intelligence reveals a transcriptomic fingerprint predicting egg quality in striped bass, Morone saxatilis.

PubMed

Chapman, Robert W; Reading, Benjamin J; Sullivan, Craig V

2014-01-01

Inherited gene transcripts deposited in oocytes direct early embryonic development in all vertebrates, but transcript profiles indicative of embryo developmental competence have not previously been identified. We employed artificial intelligence to model profiles of maternal ovary gene expression and their relationship to egg quality, evaluated as production of viable mid-blastula stage embryos, in the striped bass (Morone saxatilis), a farmed species with serious egg quality problems. In models developed using artificial neural networks (ANNs) and supervised machine learning, collective changes in the expression of a limited suite of genes (233) representing <2% of the queried ovary transcriptome explained >90% of the eventual variance in embryo survival. Egg quality related to minor changes in gene expression (<0.2-fold), with most individual transcripts making a small contribution (<1%) to the overall prediction of egg quality. These findings indicate that the predictive power of the transcriptome as regards egg quality resides not in levels of individual genes, but rather in the collective, coordinated expression of a suite of transcripts constituting a transcriptomic "fingerprint". Correlation analyses of the corresponding candidate genes indicated that dysfunction of the ubiquitin-26S proteasome, COP9 signalosome, and subsequent control of the cell cycle engenders embryonic developmental incompetence. The affected gene networks are centrally involved in regulation of early development in all vertebrates, including humans. By assessing collective levels of the relevant ovarian transcripts via ANNs we were able, for the first time in any vertebrate, to accurately predict the subsequent embryo developmental potential of eggs from individual females. Our results show that the transcriptomic fingerprint evidencing developmental dysfunction is highly predictive of, and therefore likely to regulate, egg quality, a biologically complex trait crucial to reproductive fitness.

A New Method to Assess Asymmetry in Fingerprints Could Be Used as an Early Indicator of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

PubMed Central

Morris, Molly R.; Ludwar, Bjoern Ch.; Swingle, Evan; Mamo, Mahelet N.; Shubrook, Jay H.

2016-01-01

Background: Inexpensive screening tools are needed to identify individuals predisposed to developing diabetes mellitus (DM). Such early identification coupled with an effective intervention could help many people avoid the substantial health costs of this disease. We investigated the hypothesis that fluctuating asymmetry (FA) in fingerprints is an indicator of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Methods: Participants with T2DM, with T1DM, and without any indication or known family history of diabetes were fingerprinted with a Crossmatch Verifier 320 LC scanner. Asymmetry scores for each finger pair were assessed using both pattern analysis (ridge counts), and a wavelet-based analysis. Results: Both methods for scoring asymmetry predicted risk of T2DM for finger pair IV, controlling for gender and age. AUC scores were significantly greater than the null for pattern asymmetry scores (finger IV AUC = 0.74), and wavelet asymmetry scores for finger pair IV (AUC = 0.73) and finger pair V (AUC = 0.73), for predicting T2DM. In addition, wavelet asymmetry scores for finger pair IV (AUC = 0.80) and finger pair V (AUC = 0.85) significantly predicted risk of T1DM. Conclusions: A diagnostic tool based on FA in the fingerprints of finger pair IV, measured using a wavelet analysis could be developed for predicting risk prior to associated health problems for both T2DM and T1DM. In addition, given that that the prints for fingers IV and V develop during the 14-17 weeks of gestation, we predict that interventions during this time period of pregnancy will be most successful. PMID:26830490

A New Method to Assess Asymmetry in Fingerprints Could Be Used as an Early Indicator of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus.

PubMed

Morris, Molly R; Ludwar, Bjoern Ch; Swingle, Evan; Mamo, Mahelet N; Shubrook, Jay H

2016-07-01

Inexpensive screening tools are needed to identify individuals predisposed to developing diabetes mellitus (DM). Such early identification coupled with an effective intervention could help many people avoid the substantial health costs of this disease. We investigated the hypothesis that fluctuating asymmetry (FA) in fingerprints is an indicator of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Participants with T2DM, with T1DM, and without any indication or known family history of diabetes were fingerprinted with a Crossmatch Verifier 320 LC scanner. Asymmetry scores for each finger pair were assessed using both pattern analysis (ridge counts), and a wavelet-based analysis. Both methods for scoring asymmetry predicted risk of T2DM for finger pair IV, controlling for gender and age. AUC scores were significantly greater than the null for pattern asymmetry scores (finger IV AUC = 0.74), and wavelet asymmetry scores for finger pair IV (AUC = 0.73) and finger pair V (AUC = 0.73), for predicting T2DM. In addition, wavelet asymmetry scores for finger pair IV (AUC = 0.80) and finger pair V (AUC = 0.85) significantly predicted risk of T1DM. A diagnostic tool based on FA in the fingerprints of finger pair IV, measured using a wavelet analysis could be developed for predicting risk prior to associated health problems for both T2DM and T1DM. In addition, given that that the prints for fingers IV and V develop during the 14-17 weeks of gestation, we predict that interventions during this time period of pregnancy will be most successful. © 2016 Diabetes Technology Society.

Ovary Transcriptome Profiling via Artificial Intelligence Reveals a Transcriptomic Fingerprint Predicting Egg Quality in Striped Bass, Morone saxatilis

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Inherited gene transcripts deposited in oocytes direct early embryonic development in all vertebrates, but transcript profiles indicative of embryo developmental competence have not previously been identified. We employed artificial intelligence to model profiles of maternal ovary gene expression and their relationship to egg quality, evaluated as production of viable mid-blastula stage embryos, in the striped bass (Morone saxatilis), a farmed species with serious egg quality problems. In models developed using artificial neural networks (ANNs) and supervised machine learning, collective changes in the expression of a limited suite of genes (233) representing <2% of the queried ovary transcriptome explained >90% of the eventual variance in embryo survival. Egg quality related to minor changes in gene expression (<0.2-fold), with most individual transcripts making a small contribution (<1%) to the overall prediction of egg quality. These findings indicate that the predictive power of the transcriptome as regards egg quality resides not in levels of individual genes, but rather in the collective, coordinated expression of a suite of transcripts constituting a transcriptomic “fingerprint”. Correlation analyses of the corresponding candidate genes indicated that dysfunction of the ubiquitin-26S proteasome, COP9 signalosome, and subsequent control of the cell cycle engenders embryonic developmental incompetence. The affected gene networks are centrally involved in regulation of early development in all vertebrates, including humans. By assessing collective levels of the relevant ovarian transcripts via ANNs we were able, for the first time in any vertebrate, to accurately predict the subsequent embryo developmental potential of eggs from individual females. Our results show that the transcriptomic fingerprint evidencing developmental dysfunction is highly predictive of, and therefore likely to regulate, egg quality, a biologically complex trait crucial to reproductive fitness. PMID:24820964

Rapid prediction of particulate, humus and resistant fractions of soil organic carbon in reforested lands using infrared spectroscopy.

PubMed

Madhavan, Dinesh B; Baldock, Jeff A; Read, Zoe J; Murphy, Simon C; Cunningham, Shaun C; Perring, Michael P; Herrmann, Tim; Lewis, Tom; Cavagnaro, Timothy R; England, Jacqueline R; Paul, Keryn I; Weston, Christopher J; Baker, Thomas G

2017-05-15

Reforestation of agricultural lands with mixed-species environmental plantings can effectively sequester C. While accurate and efficient methods for predicting soil organic C content and composition have recently been developed for soils under agricultural land uses, such methods under forested land uses are currently lacking. This study aimed to develop a method using infrared spectroscopy for accurately predicting total organic C (TOC) and its fractions (particulate, POC; humus, HOC; and resistant, ROC organic C) in soils under environmental plantings. Soils were collected from 117 paired agricultural-reforestation sites across Australia. TOC fractions were determined in a subset of 38 reforested soils using physical fractionation by automated wet-sieving and 13 C nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. Mid- and near-infrared spectra (MNIRS, 6000-450 cm -1 ) were acquired from finely-ground soils from environmental plantings and agricultural land. Satisfactory prediction models based on MNIRS and partial least squares regression (PLSR) were developed for TOC and its fractions. Leave-one-out cross-validations of MNIRS-PLSR models indicated accurate predictions (R 2  > 0.90, negligible bias, ratio of performance to deviation > 3) and fraction-specific functional group contributions to beta coefficients in the models. TOC and its fractions were predicted using the cross-validated models and soil spectra for 3109 reforested and agricultural soils. The reliability of predictions determined using k-nearest neighbour score distance indicated that >80% of predictions were within the satisfactory inlier limit. The study demonstrated the utility of infrared spectroscopy (MNIRS-PLSR) to rapidly and economically determine TOC and its fractions and thereby accurately describe the effects of land use change such as reforestation on agricultural soils. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of a wideband pulse quaternary modulation system. [for an operational 400 Mbps baseband laser communication system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Federhofer, J. A.

1974-01-01

Laboratory data verifying the pulse quaternary modulation (PQM) theoretical predictions is presented. The first laboratory PQM laser communication system was successfully fabricated, integrated, tested and demonstrated. System bit error rate tests were performed and, in general, indicated approximately a 2 db degradation from the theoretically predicted results. These tests indicated that no gross errors were made in the initial theoretical analysis of PQM. The relative ease with which the entire PQM laboratory system was integrated and tested indicates that PQM is a viable candidate modulation scheme for an operational 400 Mbps baseband laser communication system.

Financial Time Series Prediction Using Elman Recurrent Random Neural Networks

PubMed Central

Wang, Jie; Wang, Jun; Fang, Wen; Niu, Hongli

2016-01-01

In recent years, financial market dynamics forecasting has been a focus of economic research. To predict the price indices of stock markets, we developed an architecture which combined Elman recurrent neural networks with stochastic time effective function. By analyzing the proposed model with the linear regression, complexity invariant distance (CID), and multiscale CID (MCID) analysis methods and taking the model compared with different models such as the backpropagation neural network (BPNN), the stochastic time effective neural network (STNN), and the Elman recurrent neural network (ERNN), the empirical results show that the proposed neural network displays the best performance among these neural networks in financial time series forecasting. Further, the empirical research is performed in testing the predictive effects of SSE, TWSE, KOSPI, and Nikkei225 with the established model, and the corresponding statistical comparisons of the above market indices are also exhibited. The experimental results show that this approach gives good performance in predicting the values from the stock market indices. PMID:27293423

Financial Time Series Prediction Using Elman Recurrent Random Neural Networks.

PubMed

Wang, Jie; Wang, Jun; Fang, Wen; Niu, Hongli

2016-01-01

In recent years, financial market dynamics forecasting has been a focus of economic research. To predict the price indices of stock markets, we developed an architecture which combined Elman recurrent neural networks with stochastic time effective function. By analyzing the proposed model with the linear regression, complexity invariant distance (CID), and multiscale CID (MCID) analysis methods and taking the model compared with different models such as the backpropagation neural network (BPNN), the stochastic time effective neural network (STNN), and the Elman recurrent neural network (ERNN), the empirical results show that the proposed neural network displays the best performance among these neural networks in financial time series forecasting. Further, the empirical research is performed in testing the predictive effects of SSE, TWSE, KOSPI, and Nikkei225 with the established model, and the corresponding statistical comparisons of the above market indices are also exhibited. The experimental results show that this approach gives good performance in predicting the values from the stock market indices.

Gestational Diabetes Mellitus Risk score: A practical tool to predict Gestational Diabetes Mellitus risk in Tanzania.

PubMed

Patrick Nombo, Anna; Wendelin Mwanri, Akwilina; Brouwer-Brolsma, Elske M; Ramaiya, Kaushik L; Feskens, Edith

2018-05-28

Universal screening for hyperglycemia during pregnancy may be in-practical in resource constrained countries. Therefore, the aim of this study was to develop a simple, non-invasive practical tool to predict undiagnosed Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) in Tanzania. We used cross-sectional data of 609 pregnant women, without known diabetes, collected in six health facilities from Dar es Salaam city (urban). Women underwent screening for GDM during ante-natal clinics visit. Smoking habit, alcohol consumption, pre-existing hypertension, birth weight of the previous child, high parity, gravida, previous caesarean section, age, MUAC ≥28 cm, previous stillbirth, haemoglobin level, gestational age (weeks), family history of type 2 diabetes, intake of sweetened drinks (soda), physical activity, vegetables and fruits consumption were considered as important predictors for GDM. Multivariate logistic regression modelling was used to create the prediction model, using a cut-off value of 2.5 to minimise the number of undiagnosed GDM (false negatives). Mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) ≥28 cm, previous stillbirth, and family history of type 2 diabetes were identified as significant risk factors of GDM with a sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of 69%, 53%, 12% and 95%, respectively. Moreover, the inclusion of these three predictors resulted in an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.64 (0.56-0.72), indicating that the current tool correctly classifies 64% of high risk individuals. The findings of this study indicate that MUAC, previous stillbirth, and family history of type 2 diabetes significantly predict GDM development in this Tanzanian population. However, the developed non-invasive practical tool to predict undiagnosed GDM only identified 6 out of 10 individuals at risk of developing GDM. Thus, further development of the tool is warranted, for instance by testing the impact of other known risk factors such as maternal age, pre-pregnancy BMI, hypertension during or before pregnancy and pregnancy weight gain. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

GIS ANALYSIS FOR EPIDEMIOLOGIC RECREATIONAL WATER SUTDIES

EPA Science Inventory

Introduction: The Beaches Act of 2000 requires that the Agency develop new rapid method water quality indicators (2 hours or less) that predict whether or not coastal water is safe for swimming. This new set of water quality indicators must be validated through the epidemiologi...

Boundary layer development as a function of chamber pressure in the NASA Lewis 1030:1 area ratio rocket nozzle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Tamara A.

1988-01-01

Through the use of theoretical predictions of fluid properties and experimental heat transfer and thrust measurements, the zones of laminar, transitional, and turbulent boundary layer flow were defined for the NASA Lewis 1039:1 area ratio rocket nozzle. Tests were performed on the nozzle at chamber pressures from 350 to 100 psia. For these conditions, the throat diameter Reynolds numbers varied from 300,000 to 1 million. The propellants used were gaseous hydrogen and gaseous oxygen. Thrust measurements and nozzle outer wall temperature measurements were taken during the 3-sec test runs. Comparison of experimental heat transfer and thrust data with the corresponding predictions from the Two-Dimensional Kinetics (TDK) nozzle analysis program indicated laminar flow in the nozzle at a throat diameter Reynolds number of 320,000 or chamber pressure of 360 psia. Comparison of experimental and predicted heat transfer data indicated transitional flow up to and including a chamber pressure of 1000 psia. Predicted values of the axisymmetric acceleration parameter within the convergent and divergent nozzle were consistent with the above results. Based upon an extrapolation of the heat transfer data and predicted distributions of the axisymmetric acceleration parameter, transitional flow was predicted up to a throat diameter Reynolds number of 220,000 or 2600-psia chamber pressure. Above 2600-psia chamber pressure, fully developed turbulent flow was predicted.

Boundary layer development as a function of chamber pressure in the NASA Lewis 1030:1 area ratio rocket nozzle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Tamara A.

1988-01-01

Through the use of theoretical predictions of fluid properties and experimental heat transfer and thrust measurements, the zones of laminar, transitional, and turbulent boundary layer flow were defined for the NASA Lewis 1030:1 area ratio rocket nozzle. Tests were performed on the nozzle at chamber pressures from 350 to 100 psia. For these conditions, the throat diameter Reynolds numbers varied from 300,000 to 1 million. The propellants used were gaseous hydrogen and gaseous oxygen. Thrust measurements and nozzle outer wall temperature measurements were taken during the 3-sec test runs. Comparison of experimental heat transfer and thrust data with the corresponding predictions from the Two-Dimensional Kinetics (TDK) nozzle analysis program indicated laminar flow in the nozzle at a throat diameter Reynolds number of 320,000 or chamber pressure of 360 psia. Comparison of experimental and predicted heat transfer data indicated transitional flow up to and including a chamber pressure of 1000 psia. Predicted values of the axisymmetric acceleration parameter within the convergent and divergent nozzle were consistent with the above results. Based upon an extrapolation of the heat transfer data and predicted distributions of the axisymmetric acceleration parameter, transitional flow was predicted up to a throat diameter Reynolds number of 220,000 or 2600-psia chamber pressure. Above 2600-psia chamber pressure, fully developed turbulent flow was predicted.

Toward a categorical drought prediction system based on U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) and climate forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Zengchao; Xia, Youlong; Luo, Lifeng; Singh, Vijay P.; Ouyang, Wei; Hao, Fanghua

2017-08-01

Disastrous impacts of recent drought events around the world have led to extensive efforts in drought monitoring and prediction. Various drought information systems have been developed with different indicators to provide early drought warning. The climate forecast from North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) has been among the most salient progress in climate prediction and its application for drought prediction has been considerably growing. Since its development in 1999, the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) has played a critical role in drought monitoring with different drought categories to characterize drought severity, which has been employed to aid decision making by a wealth of users such as natural resource managers and authorities. Due to wide applications of USDM, the development of drought prediction with USDM drought categories would greatly aid decision making. This study presented a categorical drought prediction system for predicting USDM drought categories in the U.S., based on the initial conditions from USDM and seasonal climate forecasts from NMME. Results of USDM drought categories predictions in the U.S. demonstrate the potential of the prediction system, which is expected to contribute to operational early drought warning in the U.S.

Thermal barrier coating life prediction model development, phase 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Demasi, Jeanine T.; Ortiz, Milton

1989-01-01

The objective of this program was to establish a methodology to predict thermal barrier coating (TBC) life on gas turbine engine components. The approach involved experimental life measurement coupled with analytical modeling of relevant degradation modes. Evaluation of experimental and flight service components indicate the predominant failure mode to be thermomechanical spallation of the ceramic coating layer resulting from propagation of a dominant near interface crack. Examination of fractionally exposed specimens indicated that dominant crack formation results from progressive structural damage in the form of subcritical microcrack link-up. Tests conducted to isolate important life drivers have shown MCrAlY oxidation to significantly affect the rate of damage accumulation. Mechanical property testing has shown the plasma deposited ceramic to exhibit a non-linear stress-strain response, creep and fatigue. The fatigue based life prediction model developed accounts for the unusual ceramic behavior and also incorporates an experimentally determined oxide rate model. The model predicts the growth of this oxide scale to influence the intensity of the mechanic driving force, resulting from cyclic strains and stresses caused by thermally induced and externally imposed mechanical loads.

Field-level validation of a CLIMEX model for Cactoblastis cactorum (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) using estimated larval growth rates.

PubMed

Legaspi, Benjamin C; Legaspi, Jesusa Crisostomo

2010-04-01

Invasive pests, such as the cactus moth, Cactoblastis cactorum (Berg) (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), have not reached equilibrium distributions and present unique opportunities to validate models by comparing predicted distributions with eventual realized geographic ranges. A CLIMEX model was developed for C. cactorum. Model validation was attempted at the global scale by comparing worldwide distribution against known occurrence records and at the field scale by comparing CLIMEX "growth indices" against field measurements of larval growth. Globally, CLIMEX predicted limited potential distribution in North America (from the Caribbean Islands to Florida, Texas, and Mexico), Africa (South Africa and parts of the eastern coast), southern India, parts of Southeast Asia, and the northeastern coast of Australia. Actual records indicate the moth has been found in the Caribbean (Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat Saint Kitts and Nevis, Cayman Islands, and U.S. Virgin Islands), Cuba, Bahamas, Puerto Rico, southern Africa, Kenya, Mexico, and Australia. However, the model did not predict that distribution would extend from India to the west into Pakistan. In the United States, comparison of the predicted and actual distribution patterns suggests that the moth may be close to its predicted northern range along the Atlantic coast. Parts of Texas and most of Mexico may be vulnerable to geographic range expansion of C. cactorum. Larval growth rates in the field were estimated by measuring differences in head capsules and body lengths of larval cohorts at weekly intervals. Growth indices plotted against measures of larval growth rates compared poorly when CLIMEX was run using the default historical weather data. CLIMEX predicted a single period conducive to insect development, in contrast to the three generations observed in the field. Only time and more complete records will tell whether C. cactorum will extend its geographical distribution to regions predicted by the CLIMEX model. In terms of small scale temporal predictions, this study suggests that CLIMEX indices may agree with field-specific population dynamics, provided an adequate metric for insect growth rate is used and weather data are location and time specific.

Development of a Predictive Corrosion Model Using Locality-Specific Corrosion Indices

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-09-12

6 3.2.1 Statistical data analysis methods ...6 3.2.2 Algorithm development method ...components, and method ) were compiled into an executable program that uses mathematical models of materials degradation, and statistical calcula- tions

Comparison of fecal indicators with pathogenic bacteria and rotavirus in groundwater.

PubMed

Ferguson, Andrew S; Layton, Alice C; Mailloux, Brian J; Culligan, Patricia J; Williams, Daniel E; Smartt, Abby E; Sayler, Gary S; Feighery, John; McKay, Larry D; Knappett, Peter S K; Alexandrova, Ekaterina; Arbit, Talia; Emch, Michael; Escamilla, Veronica; Ahmed, Kazi Matin; Alam, Md Jahangir; Streatfield, P Kim; Yunus, Mohammad; van Geen, Alexander

2012-08-01

Groundwater is routinely analyzed for fecal indicators but direct comparisons of fecal indicators to the presence of bacterial and viral pathogens are rare. This study was conducted in rural Bangladesh where the human population density is high, sanitation is poor, and groundwater pumped from shallow tubewells is often contaminated with fecal bacteria. Five indicator microorganisms (E. coli, total coliform, F+RNA coliphage, Bacteroides and human-associated Bacteroides) and various environmental parameters were compared to the direct detection of waterborne pathogens by quantitative PCR in groundwater pumped from 50 tubewells. Rotavirus was detected in groundwater filtrate from the largest proportion of tubewells (40%), followed by Shigella (10%), Vibrio (10%), and pathogenic E. coli (8%). Spearman rank correlations and sensitivity-specificity calculations indicate that some, but not all, combinations of indicators and environmental parameters can predict the presence of pathogens. Culture-dependent fecal indicator bacteria measured on a single date did not predict total bacterial pathogens, but annually averaged monthly measurements of culturable E. coli did improve prediction for total bacterial pathogens. A qPCR-based E. coli assay was the best indicator for the bacterial pathogens. F+RNA coliphage were neither correlated nor sufficiently sensitive towards rotavirus, but were predictive of bacterial pathogens. Since groundwater cannot be excluded as a significant source of diarrheal disease in Bangladesh and neighboring countries with similar characteristics, the need to develop more effective methods for screening tubewells with respect to microbial contamination is necessary. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparison of fecal indicators with pathogenic bacteria and rotavirus in groundwater

PubMed Central

Ferguson, Andrew S.; Layton, Alice C.; Mailloux, Brian J; Culligan, Patricia J.; Williams, Daniel E.; Smartt, Abby E.; Sayler, Gary S.; Feighery, John; McKay, Larry; Knappett, Peter S.K.; Alexandrova, Ekaterina; Arbit, Talia; Emch, Michael; Escamilla, Veronica; Ahmed, Kazi Matin; Alam, Md. Jahangir; Streatfield, P. Kim; Yunus, Mohammad; van Geen, Alexander

2012-01-01

Groundwater is routinely analyzed for fecal indicators but direct comparisons of fecal indicators to the presence of bacterial and viral pathogens are rare. This study was conducted in rural Bangladesh where the human population density is high, sanitation is poor, and groundwater pumped from shallow tubewells is often contaminated with fecal bacteria. Five indicator microorganisms (E. coli, total coliform, F+RNA coliphage, Bacteroides and human-associated Bacteroides) and various environmental parameters were compared to the direct detection of waterborne pathogens by quantitative PCR in groundwater pumped from 50 tubewells. Rotavirus was detected in groundwater filtrate from the largest proportion of tubewells (40%), followed by Shigella (10%), Vibrio (10%), and pathogenic E. coli (8%). Spearman rank correlations and sensitivity-specificity calculations indicate that some, but not all, combinations of indicators and environmental parameters can predict the presence of pathogens. Culture-dependent fecal indicator bacteria measured on a single date did not predict total bacterial pathogens, but annually averaged monthly measurements of culturable E. coli did improve prediction for total bacterial pathogens. A qPCR-based E. coli assay was the best indicator for the bacterial pathogens. F+RNA coliphage were neither correlated nor sufficiently sensitive towards rotavirus, but were predictive of bacterial pathogens. Since groundwater cannot be excluded as a significant source of diarrheal disease in Bangladesh and neighboring countries with similar characteristics, the need to develop more effective methods for screening tubewells with respect to microbial contamination is necessary. PMID:22705866

1/f neural noise and electrophysiological indices of contextual prediction in aging.

PubMed

Dave, S; Brothers, T A; Swaab, T Y

2018-07-15

Prediction of upcoming words during reading has been suggested to enhance the efficiency of discourse processing. Emerging models have postulated that predictive mechanisms require synchronous firing of neural networks, but to date, this relationship has been investigated primarily through oscillatory activity in narrow frequency bands. A recently-developed measure proposed to reflect broadband neural activity - and thereby synchronous neuronal firing - is 1/f neural noise extracted from EEG spectral power. Previous research has indicated that this measure of 1/f neural noise changes across the lifespan, and these neural changes predict age-related behavioral impairments in visual working memory. Using a cross-sectional sample of young and older adults, we examined age-related changes in 1/f neural noise and whether this measure predicted ERP correlates of successful lexical prediction during discourse comprehension. 1/f neural noise across two different language tasks revealed high within-subject correlations, indicating that this measure can provide a reliable index of individualized patterns of neural activation. In addition to age, 1/f noise was a significant predictor of N400 effects of successful lexical prediction; however, noise did not mediate age-related declines in other ERP effects. We discuss broader implications of these findings for theories of predictive processing, as well as potential applications of 1/f noise across research populations. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Real Time Monitoring and Prediction of the Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations: An index based on Nonlinear Laplacian Spectral Analysis Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cherumadanakadan Thelliyil, S.; Ravindran, A. M.; Giannakis, D.; Majda, A.

2016-12-01

An improved index for real time monitoring and forecast verification of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISO) is introduced using the recently developed Nonlinear Laplacian Spectral Analysis (NLSA) algorithm. Previous studies has demonstrated the proficiency of NLSA in capturing low frequency variability and intermittency of a time series. Using NLSA a hierarchy of Laplace-Beltrami (LB) eigen functions are extracted from the unfiltered daily GPCP rainfall data over the south Asian monsoon region. Two modes representing the full life cycle of complex northeastward propagating boreal summer MISO are identified from the hierarchy of Laplace-Beltrami eigen functions. These two MISO modes have a number of advantages over the conventionally used Extended Empirical Orthogonal Function (EEOF) MISO modes including higher memory and better predictability, higher fractional variance over the western Pacific, Western Ghats and adjoining Arabian Sea regions and more realistic representation of regional heat sources associated with the MISO. The skill of NLSA based MISO indices in real time prediction of MISO is demonstrated using hindcasts of CFSv2 extended range prediction runs. It is shown that these indices yield a higher prediction skill than the other conventional indices supporting the use of NLSA in real time prediction of MISO. Real time monitoring and prediction of MISO finds its application in agriculture, construction and hydro-electric power sectors and hence an important component of monsoon prediction.

Predicting The Type Of Pregnancy Using Flexible Discriminate Analysis And Artificial Neural Networks: A Comparison Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hooman, A.; Mohammadzadeh, M

Some medical and epidemiological surveys have been designed to predict a nominal response variable with several levels. With regard to the type of pregnancy there are four possible states: wanted, unwanted by wife, unwanted by husband and unwanted by couple. In this paper, we have predicted the type of pregnancy, as well as the factors influencing it using three different models and comparing them. Regarding the type of pregnancy with several levels, we developed a multinomial logistic regression, a neural network and a flexible discrimination based on the data and compared their results using tow statistical indices: Surface under curvemore » (ROC) and kappa coefficient. Based on these tow indices, flexible discrimination proved to be a better fit for prediction on data in comparison to other methods. When the relations among variables are complex, one can use flexible discrimination instead of multinomial logistic regression and neural network to predict the nominal response variables with several levels in order to gain more accurate predictions.« less

Estimating natural monthly streamflows in California and the likelihood of anthropogenic modification

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carlisle, Daren M.; Wolock, David M.; Howard, Jeannette K.; Grantham, Theodore E.; Fesenmyer, Kurt; Wieczorek, Michael

2016-12-12

Because natural patterns of streamflow are a fundamental property of the health of streams, there is a critical need to quantify the degree to which human activities have modified natural streamflows. A requirement for assessing streamflow modification in a given stream is a reliable estimate of flows expected in the absence of human influences. Although there are many techniques to predict streamflows in specific river basins, there is a lack of approaches for making predictions of natural conditions across large regions and over many decades. In this study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with The Nature Conservancy and Trout Unlimited, the primary objective was to develop empirical models that predict natural (that is, unaffected by land use or water management) monthly streamflows from 1950 to 2012 for all stream segments in California. Models were developed using measured streamflow data from the existing network of streams where daily flow monitoring occurs, but where the drainage basins have minimal human influences. Widely available data on monthly weather conditions and the physical attributes of river basins were used as predictor variables. Performance of regional-scale models was comparable to that of published mechanistic models for specific river basins, indicating the models can be reliably used to estimate natural monthly flows in most California streams. A second objective was to develop a model that predicts the likelihood that streams experience modified hydrology. New models were developed to predict modified streamflows at 558 streamflow monitoring sites in California where human activities affect the hydrology, using basin-scale geospatial indicators of land use and water management. Performance of these models was less reliable than that for the natural-flow models, but results indicate the models could be used to provide a simple screening tool for identifying, across the State of California, which streams may be experiencing anthropogenic flow modification.

GlobalSoilMap France: High-resolution spatial modelling the soils of France up to two meter depth.

PubMed

Mulder, V L; Lacoste, M; Richer-de-Forges, A C; Arrouays, D

2016-12-15

This work presents the first GlobalSoilMap (GSM) products for France. We developed an automatic procedure for mapping the primary soil properties (clay, silt, sand, coarse elements, pH, soil organic carbon (SOC), cation exchange capacity (CEC) and soil depth). The procedure employed a data-mining technique and a straightforward method for estimating the 90% confidence intervals (CIs). The most accurate models were obtained for pH, sand and silt. Next, CEC, clay and SOC were found reasonably accurate predicted. Coarse elements and soil depth were the least accurate of all models. Overall, all models were considered robust; important indicators for this were 1) the small difference in model diagnostics between the calibration and cross-validation set, 2) the unbiased mean predictions, 3) the smaller spatial structure of the prediction residuals in comparison to the observations and 4) the similar performance compared to other developed GlobalSoilMap products. Nevertheless, the confidence intervals (CIs) were rather wide for all soil properties. The median predictions became less reliable with increasing depth, as indicated by the increase of CIs with depth. In addition, model accuracy and the corresponding CIs varied depending on the soil variable of interest, soil depth and geographic location. These findings indicated that the CIs are as informative as the model diagnostics. In conclusion, the presented method resulted in reasonably accurate predictions for the majority of the soil properties. End users can employ the products for different purposes, as was demonstrated with some practical examples. The mapping routine is flexible for cloud-computing and provides ample opportunity to be further developed when desired by its users. This allows regional and international GSM partners with fewer resources to develop their own products or, otherwise, to improve the current routine and work together towards a robust high-resolution digital soil map of the world. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Novel prediction model of renal function after nephrectomy from automated renal volumetry with preoperative multidetector computed tomography (MDCT).

PubMed

Isotani, Shuji; Shimoyama, Hirofumi; Yokota, Isao; Noma, Yasuhiro; Kitamura, Kousuke; China, Toshiyuki; Saito, Keisuke; Hisasue, Shin-ichi; Ide, Hisamitsu; Muto, Satoru; Yamaguchi, Raizo; Ukimura, Osamu; Gill, Inderbir S; Horie, Shigeo

2015-10-01

The predictive model of postoperative renal function may impact on planning nephrectomy. To develop the novel predictive model using combination of clinical indices with computer volumetry to measure the preserved renal cortex volume (RCV) using multidetector computed tomography (MDCT), and to prospectively validate performance of the model. Total 60 patients undergoing radical nephrectomy from 2011 to 2013 participated, including a development cohort of 39 patients and an external validation cohort of 21 patients. RCV was calculated by voxel count using software (Vincent, FUJIFILM). Renal function before and after radical nephrectomy was assessed via the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Factors affecting postoperative eGFR were examined by regression analysis to develop the novel model for predicting postoperative eGFR with a backward elimination method. The predictive model was externally validated and the performance of the model was compared with that of the previously reported models. The postoperative eGFR value was associated with age, preoperative eGFR, preserved renal parenchymal volume (RPV), preserved RCV, % of RPV alteration, and % of RCV alteration (p < 0.01). The significant correlated variables for %eGFR alteration were %RCV preservation (r = 0.58, p < 0.01) and %RPV preservation (r = 0.54, p < 0.01). We developed our regression model as follows: postoperative eGFR = 57.87 - 0.55(age) - 15.01(body surface area) + 0.30(preoperative eGFR) + 52.92(%RCV preservation). Strong correlation was seen between postoperative eGFR and the calculated estimation model (r = 0.83; p < 0.001). The external validation cohort (n = 21) showed our model outperformed previously reported models. Combining MDCT renal volumetry and clinical indices might yield an important tool for predicting postoperative renal function.

Early declarative memory predicts productive language: A longitudinal study of deferred imitation and communication at 9 and 16months.

PubMed

Sundqvist, Annette; Nordqvist, Emelie; Koch, Felix-Sebastian; Heimann, Mikael

2016-11-01

Deferred imitation (DI) may be regarded as an early declarative-like memory ability shaping the infant's ability to learn about novelties and regularities of the surrounding world. In the current longitudinal study, infants were assessed at 9 and 16months. DI was assessed using five novel objects. Each infant's communicative development was measured by parental questionnaires. The results indicate stability in DI performance and early communicative development between 9 and 16months. The early achievers at 9months were still advanced at 16months. Results also identified a predictive relationship between the infant's gestural development at 9months and the infant's productive and receptive language at 16months. Moreover, the results show that declarative memory, measured with DI, and gestural communication at 9months independently predict productive language at 16months. These findings suggest a connection between the ability to form non-linguistic and linguistic mental representations. These results indicate that the child's DI ability when predominantly preverbal might be regarded as an early domain-general declarative memory ability underlying early productive language development. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

DEVELOPING SITE-SPECIFIC MODELS FOR FORECASTING BACTERIA LEVELS AT COASTAL BEACHES

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S.Beaches Environmental Assessment and Coastal Health Act of 2000 authorizes studies of pathogen indicators in coastal recreation waters that develop appropriate, accurate, expeditious, and cost-effective methods (including predictive models) for quantifying pathogens in co...

A neighborhood statistics model for predicting stream pathogen indicator levels.

PubMed

Pandey, Pramod K; Pasternack, Gregory B; Majumder, Mahbubul; Soupir, Michelle L; Kaiser, Mark S

2015-03-01

Because elevated levels of water-borne Escherichia coli in streams are a leading cause of water quality impairments in the U.S., water-quality managers need tools for predicting aqueous E. coli levels. Presently, E. coli levels may be predicted using complex mechanistic models that have a high degree of unchecked uncertainty or simpler statistical models. To assess spatio-temporal patterns of instream E. coli levels, herein we measured E. coli, a pathogen indicator, at 16 sites (at four different times) within the Squaw Creek watershed, Iowa, and subsequently, the Markov Random Field model was exploited to develop a neighborhood statistics model for predicting instream E. coli levels. Two observed covariates, local water temperature (degrees Celsius) and mean cross-sectional depth (meters), were used as inputs to the model. Predictions of E. coli levels in the water column were compared with independent observational data collected from 16 in-stream locations. The results revealed that spatio-temporal averages of predicted and observed E. coli levels were extremely close. Approximately 66 % of individual predicted E. coli concentrations were within a factor of 2 of the observed values. In only one event, the difference between prediction and observation was beyond one order of magnitude. The mean of all predicted values at 16 locations was approximately 1 % higher than the mean of the observed values. The approach presented here will be useful while assessing instream contaminations such as pathogen/pathogen indicator levels at the watershed scale.

Can terrestrial diversity be predicted from soil morphology?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fournier, Bertrand; Guenat, Claire; Mitchell, Edward

2010-05-01

Restoration ecology is a young discipline and, as a consequence, many concepts and methods are not yet mature. A good example of this is the case of floodplains which have been intensively embanked, dammed or otherwise engineered in industrialized countries, but are now increasingly being restored, often at high cost. There is however much confusion over the goals of floodplain restoration projects and the methods, criteria, and indicators to assess their success. Nature practitioners are interested in knowing how many and which variables are needed for an efficient monitoring and/or assessment. Although many restoration success assessment methods have been developed to meet this need, most indicators currently used are complicated and expensive or provide only spatially or temporally limited information on these complex systems. Perhaps as a result, no standard method has yet been defined and post-restoration monitoring is not systematically done. Optimizing indicators would help improve the credibility of restoration projects and would thus help to convince stakeholders and managers to support monitoring programs. As a result, defining the predictive power of restoration success indicators, as well as selecting the most pertinent variables among the ones currently used is of major importance for a sustainable and adaptive management of our river ecosystems. Soil characteristics determine key functions (e.g. decomposition) and ecosystem structure (e.g. vegetation) in terrestrial ecosystems. They therefore have a high potential information value that is, however, generally not considered in floodplain restoration assessment. In order to explore this potential, we recently developed a new synthetic indicator based on soil morphology for the evaluation of river restoration success. Following Hutchinson's ecological niche concept, we hypothesised that terrestrial biodiversity can be predicted based on soil characteristics, but that these characteristics do not perform equivalently for all taxonomic group. In this study, we explored the potential of soil morphology as a proxy for biodiversity. We used results of a previous research seeking at developing soil morphology based indicators for floodplain restoration assessment, as well as surveys of vegetation, bacteria, earthworms, and terrestrial arthropods from the same site (River Thur, CCES project RECORD: http://www.swiss-experiment.ch/index.php/Record:Home) to analyse the relationships among soil morphology and biodiversity variables and assess the efficiency of this river widening. Furthermore, we defined the best performing predictive soil variables for each taxa. Soil morphology indicators performed well in predicting terrestrial arthropod richness supporting the idea that this relatively simple indicator may represent a useful tool for the rapid assessment of floodplain restoration success. However, the indicators performed variously concerning other taxa highlighting the methods limitation and giving clues for future improvements. We conclude by discussing the potential of soil morphology in conservation biology and its possible applications for nature practitioners.

Response surface models for effects of temperature and previous growth sodium chloride on growth kinetics of Salmonella typhimurium on cooked chicken breast.

PubMed

Oscar, T P

1999-12-01

Response surface models were developed and validated for effects of temperature (10 to 40 degrees C) and previous growth NaCl (0.5 to 4.5%) on lag time (lambda) and specific growth rate (mu) of Salmonella Typhimurium on cooked chicken breast. Growth curves for model development (n = 55) and model validation (n = 16) were fit to a two-phase linear growth model to obtain lambda and mu of Salmonella Typhimurium on cooked chicken breast. Response surface models for natural logarithm transformations of lambda and mu as a function of temperature and previous growth NaCl were obtained by regression analysis. Both lambda and mu of Salmonella Typhimurium were affected (P < 0.0001) by temperature but not by previous growth NaCl. Models were validated against data not used in their development. Mean absolute relative error of predictions (model accuracy) was 26.6% for lambda and 15.4% for mu. Median relative error of predictions (model bias) was 0.9% for lambda and 5.2% for mu. Results indicated that the models developed provided reliable predictions of lambda and mu of Salmonella Typhimurium on cooked chicken breast within the matrix of conditions modeled. In addition, results indicated that previous growth NaCl (0.5 to 4.5%) was not a major factor affecting subsequent growth kinetics of Salmonella Typhimurium on cooked chicken breast. Thus, inclusion of previous growth NaCl in predictive models may not significantly improve our ability to predict growth of Salmonella spp. on food subjected to temperature abuse.

Predicting synoptic water quality indicators of wadeable streams in the U.S. using National Soil Database

EPA Science Inventory

Nationwide assessment of water quality is a goal of the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), and the EPA’s Wadeable Stream Assessment (WSA) was developed in response to that goal. The observed chemical, physical, and biological water quality indicators (WQI) fro...

Predicting synoptic water quality indicators of wadeable streams in the U.S. using national soil database - Shirazi

EPA Science Inventory

Nationwide assessment of water quality is a goal of the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), and the EPA’s Wadeable Stream Assessment (WSA) was developed in response to that goal. The observed chemical, physical, and biological water quality indicators (WQI) fro...

The Power of Student Empowerment: Measuring Classroom Predictors and Individual Indicators

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kirk, Chris Michael; Lewis, Rhonda K.; Brown, Kyrah; Karibo, Brittany; Park, Elle

2016-01-01

Despite spending more money per student than almost all developed nations, the United States lags behind in educational indicators with persistent disparities between privileged and marginalized students. Most approaches have ignored the role of power dynamics in predicting student performance. Building on the existing literature in school climate…

Use the predictive models to explore the key factors affecting phytoplankton succession in Lake Erhai, China.

PubMed

Zhu, Rong; Wang, Huan; Chen, Jun; Shen, Hong; Deng, Xuwei

2018-01-01

Increasing algae in Lake Erhai has resulted in frequent blooms that have not only led to water ecosystem degeneration but also seriously influenced the quality of the water supply and caused extensive damage to the local people, as the lake is a water resource for Dali City. Exploring the key factors affecting phytoplankton succession and developing predictive models with easily detectable parameters for phytoplankton have been proven to be practical ways to improve water quality. To this end, a systematic survey focused on phytoplankton succession was conducted over 2 years in Lake Erhai. The data from the first study year were used to develop predictive models, and the data from the second year were used for model verification. The seasonal succession of phytoplankton in Lake Erhai was obvious. The dominant groups were Cyanobacteria in the summer, Chlorophyta in the autumn and Bacillariophyta in the winter. The developments and verification of predictive models indicated that compared to phytoplankton biomass, phytoplankton density is more effective for estimating phytoplankton variation in Lake Erhai. CCA (canonical correlation analysis) indicated that TN (total nitrogen), TP (total phosphorus), DO (dissolved oxygen), SD (Secchi depth), Cond (conductivity), T (water temperature), and ORP (oxidation reduction potential) had significant influences (p < 0.05) on the phytoplankton community. The CCA of the dominant species found that Microcystis was significantly influenced by T. The dominant Chlorophyta, Psephonema aenigmaticum and Mougeotia, were significantly influenced by TN. All results indicated that TN and T were the two key factors driving phytoplankton succession in Lake Erhai.

Theory of mind and switching predict prospective memory performance in adolescents.

PubMed

Altgassen, Mareike; Vetter, Nora C; Phillips, Louise H; Akgün, Canan; Kliegel, Matthias

2014-11-01

Research indicates ongoing development of prospective memory as well as theory of mind and executive functions across late childhood and adolescence. However, so far the interplay of these processes has not been investigated. Therefore, the purpose of the current study was to investigate whether theory of mind and executive control processes (specifically updating, switching, and inhibition) predict prospective memory development across adolescence. In total, 42 adolescents and 41 young adults participated in this study. Young adults outperformed adolescents on tasks of prospective memory, theory of mind, and executive functions. Switching and theory of mind predicted prospective memory performance in adolescents. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development of an accident duration prediction model on the Korean Freeway Systems.

PubMed

Chung, Younshik

2010-01-01

Since duration prediction is one of the most important steps in an accident management process, there have been several approaches developed for modeling accident duration. This paper presents a model for the purpose of accident duration prediction based on accurately recorded and large accident dataset from the Korean Freeway Systems. To develop the duration prediction model, this study utilizes the log-logistic accelerated failure time (AFT) metric model and a 2-year accident duration dataset from 2006 to 2007. Specifically, the 2006 dataset is utilized to develop the prediction model and then, the 2007 dataset was employed to test the temporal transferability of the 2006 model. Although the duration prediction model has limitations such as large prediction error due to the individual differences of the accident treatment teams in terms of clearing similar accidents, the results from the 2006 model yielded a reasonable prediction based on the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) scale. Additionally, the results of the statistical test for temporal transferability indicated that the estimated parameters in the duration prediction model are stable over time. Thus, this temporal stability suggests that the model may have potential to be used as a basis for making rational diversion and dispatching decisions in the event of an accident. Ultimately, such information will beneficially help in mitigating traffic congestion due to accidents.

Fetal Heart Rate and Variability: Stability and Prediction to Developmental Outcomes in Early Childhood

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DiPietro, Janet A.; Bornstein, Marc H.; Hahn, Chun-Shin; Costigan, Kathleen; Achy-Brou, Aristide

2007-01-01

Stability in cardiac indicators before birth and their utility in predicting variation in postnatal development were examined. Fetal heart rate and variability were measured longitudinally from 20 through 38 weeks gestation (n = 137) and again at age 2 (n = 79). Significant within-individual stability during the prenatal period and into childhood…

A Soil Temperature Model for Closed Canopied Forest Stands

Treesearch

James M. Vose; Wayne T. Swank

1991-01-01

A microcomputer-based soil temperature model was developed to predict temperature at the litter-soil interface and soil temperatures at three depths (0.10 m, 0.20 m, and 1.25 m) under closed forest canopies. Comparisons of predicted and measured soil temperatures indicated good model performance under most conditions. When generalized parameters describing soil...

The Role of Home and School Factors in Predicting English Vocabulary among Bilingual Kindergarten Children in Singapore

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dixon, L. Quentin

2011-01-01

Research in monolingual populations indicate that vocabulary knowledge is essential to reading achievement, but how vocabulary develops in bilingual children has been understudied. The current study investigated the role of home and school factors in predicting English vocabulary among 284 bilingual kindergartners (168 Chinese, 65 Malay, 51…

A data mining approach to predict in situ chlorinated ethene detoxification potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J.; Im, J.; Kim, U.; Loeffler, F. E.

2015-12-01

Despite major advances in physicochemical remediation technologies, in situ biostimulation and bioaugmentation treatment aimed at stimulating Dehalococcoides mccartyi (Dhc) reductive dechlorination activity remains a cornerstone approach to remedy sites impacted with chlorinated ethenes. In practice, selecting the best remedial strategy is challenging due to uncertainties associated with the microbiology (e.g., presence and activity of Dhc) and geochemical factors influencing Dhc activity. Extensive groundwater datasets collected over decades of monitoring exist, but have not been systematically analyzed. In the present study, geochemical and microbial data sets collected from 35 wells at 5 contaminated sites were used to develop a predictive empirical model using a machine learning algorithm (i) to rank the relative importance of parameters that affect in situ reductive dechlorination potential, and (ii) to provide recommendations for selecting the optimal remediation strategy at a specific site. Classification and regression tree (CART) analysis was applied, and a representative classification tree model was developed that allowed short-term prediction of dechlorination potential. Indirect indicators for low dissolved oxygen (e.g., low NO3-and NO2-, high Fe2+ and CH4) were the most influential factors for predicting dechlorination potential, followed by total organic carbon content (TOC) and Dhc cell abundance. These findings indicate that machine learning-based data mining techniques applied to groundwater monitoring data can lead to the development of predictive groundwater remediation models. A major need for improving the predictive capabilities of the data mining approach is a curated, up-to-date and comprehensive collection of groundwater monitoring data.

The development of vaccines: how the past led to the future.

PubMed

Plotkin, Stanley A; Plotkin, Susan L

2011-10-03

The history of vaccine development has seen many accomplishments, but there are still many diseases that are difficult to target, and new technologies are being brought to bear on them. Past successes have been largely due to elicitation of protective antibodies based on predictions made from the study of animal models, natural infections and seroepidemiology. Those predictions have often been correct, as indicated by the decline of many infections for which vaccines have been made over the past 200 years.

Estimating Inflows to Lake Okeechobee Using Climate Indices: A Machine Learning Modeling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalra, A.; Ahmad, S.

2008-12-01

The operation of regional water management systems that include lakes and storage reservoirs for flood control and water supply can be significantly improved by using climate indices. This research is focused on forecasting Lag 1 annual inflow to Lake Okeechobee, located in South Florida, using annual oceanic- atmospheric indices of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and El Nino-Southern Oscillations (ENSO). Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM), belonging to the class of data driven models, are developed to forecast annual lake inflow using annual oceanic-atmospheric indices data from 1914 to 2003. The models were trained with 80 years of data and tested for 10 years of data. Based on Correlation Coefficient, Root Means Square Error, and Mean Absolute Error model predictions were in good agreement with measured inflow volumes. Sensitivity analysis, performed to evaluate the effect of individual and coupled oscillations, revealed a strong signal for AMO and ENSO indices compared to PDO and NAO indices for one year lead-time inflow forecast. Inflow predictions from the SVM models were better when compared with the predictions obtained from feed forward back propagation Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models.

Language and reading development in the brain today: neuromarkers and the case for prediction.

PubMed

Buchweitz, Augusto

2016-01-01

The goal of this article is to provide an account of language development in the brain using the new information about brain function gleaned from cognitive neuroscience. This account goes beyond describing the association between language and specific brain areas to advocate the possibility of predicting language outcomes using brain-imaging data. The goal is to address the current evidence about language development in the brain and prediction of language outcomes. Recent studies will be discussed in the light of the evidence generated for predicting language outcomes and using new methods of analysis of brain data. The present account of brain behavior will address: (1) the development of a hardwired brain circuit for spoken language; (2) the neural adaptation that follows reading instruction and fosters the "grafting" of visual processing areas of the brain onto the hardwired circuit of spoken language; and (3) the prediction of language development and the possibility of translational neuroscience. Brain imaging has allowed for the identification of neural indices (neuromarkers) that reflect typical and atypical language development; the possibility of predicting risk for language disorders has emerged. A mandate to develop a bridge between neuroscience and health and cognition-related outcomes may pave the way for translational neuroscience. Copyright © 2016 Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Predicting geogenic arsenic contamination in shallow groundwater of south Louisiana, United States.

PubMed

Yang, Ningfang; Winkel, Lenny H E; Johannesson, Karen H

2014-05-20

Groundwater contaminated with arsenic (As) threatens the health of more than 140 million people worldwide. Previous studies indicate that geology and sedimentary depositional environments are important factors controlling groundwater As contamination. The Mississippi River delta has broadly similar geology and sedimentary depositional environments to the large deltas in South and Southeast Asia, which are severely affected by geogenic As contamination and therefore may also be vulnerable to groundwater As contamination. In this study, logistic regression is used to develop a probability model based on surface hydrology, soil properties, geology, and sedimentary depositional environments. The model is calibrated using 3286 aggregated and binary-coded groundwater As concentration measurements from Bangladesh and verified using 78 As measurements from south Louisiana. The model's predictions are in good agreement with the known spatial distribution of groundwater As contamination of Bangladesh, and the predictions also indicate high risk of As contamination in shallow groundwater from Holocene sediments of south Louisiana. Furthermore, the model correctly predicted 79% of the existing shallow groundwater As measurements in the study region, indicating good performance of the model in predicting groundwater As contamination in shallow aquifers of south Louisiana.

Potentiality Prediction of Electric Power Replacement Based on Power Market Development Strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miao, Bo; Yang, Shuo; Liu, Qiang; Lin, Jingyi; Zhao, Le; Liu, Chang; Li, Bin

2017-05-01

The application of electric power replacement plays an important role in promoting the development of energy conservation and emission reduction in our country. To exploit the potentiality of regional electric power replacement, the regional GDP (gross domestic product) and energy consumption are taken as potentiality evaluation indicators. The principal component factors are extracted with PCA (principal component analysis), and the integral potentiality analysis is made to the potentiality of electric power replacement in the national various regions; a region is taken as a research object, and the potentiality of electric power replacement is defined and quantified. The analytical model for the potentiality of multi-scenario electric power replacement is developed, and prediction is made to the energy consumption with the grey prediction model. The relevant theoretical research is utilized to realize prediction analysis on the potentiality amount of multi-scenario electric power replacement.

lazar: a modular predictive toxicology framework

PubMed Central

Maunz, Andreas; Gütlein, Martin; Rautenberg, Micha; Vorgrimmler, David; Gebele, Denis; Helma, Christoph

2013-01-01

lazar (lazy structure–activity relationships) is a modular framework for predictive toxicology. Similar to the read across procedure in toxicological risk assessment, lazar creates local QSAR (quantitative structure–activity relationship) models for each compound to be predicted. Model developers can choose between a large variety of algorithms for descriptor calculation and selection, chemical similarity indices, and model building. This paper presents a high level description of the lazar framework and discusses the performance of example classification and regression models. PMID:23761761

Understanding heat and fluid flow in linear GTA welds

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zacharia, T.; David, S.A.; Vitek, J.M.

1992-01-01

A transient heat flow and fluid flow model was used to predict the development of gas tungsten arc (GTA) weld pools in 1.5 mm thick AISI 304 SS. The welding parameters were chosen so as to correspond to an earlier experimental study which produced high-resolution surface temperature maps. The motivation of the present study was to verify the predictive capability of the computational model. Comparison of the numerical predictions and experimental observations indicate good agreement.

Understanding heat and fluid flow in linear GTA welds

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zacharia, T.; David, S.A.; Vitek, J.M.

1992-12-31

A transient heat flow and fluid flow model was used to predict the development of gas tungsten arc (GTA) weld pools in 1.5 mm thick AISI 304 SS. The welding parameters were chosen so as to correspond to an earlier experimental study which produced high-resolution surface temperature maps. The motivation of the present study was to verify the predictive capability of the computational model. Comparison of the numerical predictions and experimental observations indicate good agreement.

A Prediction Model for ROS1-Rearranged Lung Adenocarcinomas based on Histologic Features.

PubMed

Zhou, Jianya; Zhao, Jing; Zheng, Jing; Kong, Mei; Sun, Ke; Wang, Bo; Chen, Xi; Ding, Wei; Zhou, Jianying

2016-01-01

To identify the clinical and histological characteristics of ROS1-rearranged non-small-cell lung carcinomas (NSCLCs) and build a prediction model to prescreen suitable patients for molecular testing. We identified 27 cases of ROS1-rearranged lung adenocarcinomas in 1165 patients with NSCLCs confirmed by real-time PCR and FISH and performed univariate and multivariate analyses to identify predictive factors associated with ROS1 rearrangement and finally developed prediction model. Detected with ROS1 immunochemistry, 59 cases of 1165 patients had a certain degree of ROS1 expression. Among these cases, 19 cases (68%, 19/28) with 3+ and 8 cases (47%, 8/17) with 2+ staining were ROS1 rearrangement verified by real-time PCR and FISH. In the resected group, the acinar-predominant growth pattern was the most commonly observed (57%, 8/14), while in the biopsy group, solid patterns were the most frequently observed (78%, 7/13). Based on multiple logistic regression analysis, we determined that female sex, cribriform structure and the presence of psammoma body were the three most powerful indicators of ROS1 rearrangement, and we have developed a predictive model for the presence of ROS1 rearrangements in lung adenocarcinomas. Female, cribriform structure and presence of psammoma body were the three most powerful indicator of ROS1 rearrangement status, and predictive formula was helpful in screening ROS1-rearranged NSCLC, especially for ROS1 immunochemistry equivocal cases.

Remotely sensed rice yield prediction using multi-temporal NDVI data derived from NOAA's-AVHRR.

PubMed

Huang, Jingfeng; Wang, Xiuzhen; Li, Xinxing; Tian, Hanqin; Pan, Zhuokun

2013-01-01

Grain-yield prediction using remotely sensed data have been intensively studied in wheat and maize, but such information is limited in rice, barley, oats and soybeans. The present study proposes a new framework for rice-yield prediction, which eliminates the influence of the technology development, fertilizer application, and management improvement and can be used for the development and implementation of provincial rice-yield predictions. The technique requires the collection of remotely sensed data over an adequate time frame and a corresponding record of the region's crop yields. Longer normalized-difference-vegetation-index (NDVI) time series are preferable to shorter ones for the purposes of rice-yield prediction because the well-contrasted seasons in a longer time series provide the opportunity to build regression models with a wide application range. A regression analysis of the yield versus the year indicated an annual gain in the rice yield of 50 to 128 kg ha(-1). Stepwise regression models for the remotely sensed rice-yield predictions have been developed for five typical rice-growing provinces in China. The prediction models for the remotely sensed rice yield indicated that the influences of the NDVIs on the rice yield were always positive. The association between the predicted and observed rice yields was highly significant without obvious outliers from 1982 to 2004. Independent validation found that the overall relative error is approximately 5.82%, and a majority of the relative errors were less than 5% in 2005 and 2006, depending on the study area. The proposed models can be used in an operational context to predict rice yields at the provincial level in China. The methodologies described in the present paper can be applied to any crop for which a sufficient time series of NDVI data and the corresponding historical yield information are available, as long as the historical yield increases significantly.

Remotely Sensed Rice Yield Prediction Using Multi-Temporal NDVI Data Derived from NOAA's-AVHRR

PubMed Central

Huang, Jingfeng; Wang, Xiuzhen; Li, Xinxing; Tian, Hanqin; Pan, Zhuokun

2013-01-01

Grain-yield prediction using remotely sensed data have been intensively studied in wheat and maize, but such information is limited in rice, barley, oats and soybeans. The present study proposes a new framework for rice-yield prediction, which eliminates the influence of the technology development, fertilizer application, and management improvement and can be used for the development and implementation of provincial rice-yield predictions. The technique requires the collection of remotely sensed data over an adequate time frame and a corresponding record of the region's crop yields. Longer normalized-difference-vegetation-index (NDVI) time series are preferable to shorter ones for the purposes of rice-yield prediction because the well-contrasted seasons in a longer time series provide the opportunity to build regression models with a wide application range. A regression analysis of the yield versus the year indicated an annual gain in the rice yield of 50 to 128 kg ha−1. Stepwise regression models for the remotely sensed rice-yield predictions have been developed for five typical rice-growing provinces in China. The prediction models for the remotely sensed rice yield indicated that the influences of the NDVIs on the rice yield were always positive. The association between the predicted and observed rice yields was highly significant without obvious outliers from 1982 to 2004. Independent validation found that the overall relative error is approximately 5.82%, and a majority of the relative errors were less than 5% in 2005 and 2006, depending on the study area. The proposed models can be used in an operational context to predict rice yields at the provincial level in China. The methodologies described in the present paper can be applied to any crop for which a sufficient time series of NDVI data and the corresponding historical yield information are available, as long as the historical yield increases significantly. PMID:23967112

Turbine Vane External Heat Transfer. Volume 2. Numerical Solutions of the Navier-stokes Equations for Two- and Three-dimensional Turbine Cascades with Heat Transfer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, R. J.; Weinberg, B. C.; Shamroth, S. J.; Mcdonald, H.

1985-01-01

The application of the time-dependent ensemble-averaged Navier-Stokes equations to transonic turbine cascade flow fields was examined. In particular, efforts focused on an assessment of the procedure in conjunction with a suitable turbulence model to calculate steady turbine flow fields using an O-type coordinate system. Three cascade configurations were considered. Comparisons were made between the predicted and measured surface pressures and heat transfer distributions wherever available. In general, the pressure predictions were in good agreement with the data. Heat transfer calculations also showed good agreement when an empirical transition model was used. However, further work in the development of laminar-turbulent transitional models is indicated. The calculations showed most of the known features associated with turbine cascade flow fields. These results indicate the ability of the Navier-Stokes analysis to predict, in reasonable amounts of computation time, the surface pressure distribution, heat transfer rates, and viscous flow development for turbine cascades operating at realistic conditions.

Prediction of air temperature for thermal comfort of people in outdoor environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Jianhua

2007-05-01

Current thermal comfort indices do not take into account the effects of wind and body movement on the thermal resistance and vapor resistance of clothing. This may cause public health problem, e.g. cold-related mortality. Based on the energy balance equation and heat exchanges between a clothed body and the outdoor environment, a mathematical model was developed to determine the air temperature at which an average adult, wearing a specific outdoor clothing and engaging in a given activity, attains thermal comfort under outdoor environment condition. The results indicated low clothing insulation, less physical activity and high wind speed lead to high air temperature prediction for thermal comfort. More accurate air temperature prediction is able to prevent wearers from hypothermia under cold conditions.

Two Approaches to Estimating the Effect of Parenting on the Development of Executive Function in Early Childhood

PubMed Central

Blair, Clancy; Raver, C. Cybele; Berry, Daniel J.

2015-01-01

In the current article, we contrast 2 analytical approaches to estimate the relation of parenting to executive function development in a sample of 1,292 children assessed longitudinally between the ages of 36 and 60 months of age. Children were administered a newly developed and validated battery of 6 executive function tasks tapping inhibitory control, working memory, and attention shifting. Residualized change analysis indicated that higher quality parenting as indicated by higher scores on widely used measures of parenting at both earlier and later time points predicted more positive gain in executive function at 60 months. Latent change score models in which parenting and executive function over time were held to standards of longitudinal measurement invariance provided additional evidence of the association between change in parenting quality and change in executive function. In these models, cross-lagged paths indicated that in addition to parenting predicting change in executive function, executive function bidirectionally predicted change in parenting quality. Results were robust with the addition of covariates, including child sex, race, maternal education, and household income-to-need. Strengths and drawbacks of the 2 analytic approaches are discussed, and the findings are considered in light of emerging methodological innovations for testing the extent to which executive function is malleable and open to the influence of experience. PMID:23834294

Disturbance metrics predict a wetland Vegetation Index of Biotic Integrity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stapanian, Martin A.; Mack, John; Adams, Jean V.; Gara, Brian; Micacchion, Mick

2013-01-01

Indices of biological integrity of wetlands based on vascular plants (VIBIs) have been developed in many areas in the USA. Knowledge of the best predictors of VIBIs would enable management agencies to make better decisions regarding mitigation site selection and performance monitoring criteria. We use a novel statistical technique to develop predictive models for an established index of wetland vegetation integrity (Ohio VIBI), using as independent variables 20 indices and metrics of habitat quality, wetland disturbance, and buffer area land use from 149 wetlands in Ohio, USA. For emergent and forest wetlands, predictive models explained 61% and 54% of the variability, respectively, in Ohio VIBI scores. In both cases the most important predictor of Ohio VIBI score was a metric that assessed habitat alteration and development in the wetland. Of secondary importance as a predictor was a metric that assessed microtopography, interspersion, and quality of vegetation communities in the wetland. Metrics and indices assessing disturbance and land use of the buffer area were generally poor predictors of Ohio VIBI scores. Our results suggest that vegetation integrity of emergent and forest wetlands could be most directly enhanced by minimizing substrate and habitat disturbance within the wetland. Such efforts could include reducing or eliminating any practices that disturb the soil profile, such as nutrient enrichment from adjacent farm land, mowing, grazing, or cutting or removing woody plants.

The Role of ADHD in Predicting the Development of Violent Behavior Among Juvenile Offenders: Participation Versus Frequency.

PubMed

Wojciechowski, Thomas W

2017-10-01

Past research has identified attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) as a risk factor for engagement in violent offending. Despite the link between the disorder and violent offending, this risk factor has yet to be examined as a predictor of heterogeneity in the development of violent offending among juvenile offenders. It is likely that the impulsivity, genetic link, and generally chronic disorder course which are characteristics of the disorder play roles in predicting violent offending, which is consistent with both self-control theory and general developmental theory related to early life deficits and life-course persistent offending. Past research has also elucidated a developmental trajectory model of violent offending, which is utilized by the present research. The present research examines ADHD as a risk factor predicting trajectory group assignment. The Pathways to Desistance data followed 1,354 juvenile offenders for 84 months following conviction for a serious offense. Using multinomial logistic regression, this study extends past research on the development of violent offending among juvenile offenders by examining ADHD as a risk factor predicting assignment to violent offending trajectory groups. Results indicate that meeting criteria for ADHD at baseline predicted membership to all trajectory groups relative to the Abstaining group when all covariates were included. This increase in risk is highest for the trajectory group characterized by the highest frequency of violent offending. This indicates the relevance of identifying and treating ADHD among juvenile offenders to best mitigate risk of violent recidivism throughout adolescence and early adulthood.

Achievement Emotions and Academic Performance: Longitudinal Models of Reciprocal Effects.

PubMed

Pekrun, Reinhard; Lichtenfeld, Stephanie; Marsh, Herbert W; Murayama, Kou; Goetz, Thomas

2017-09-01

A reciprocal effects model linking emotion and achievement over time is proposed. The model was tested using five annual waves of the Project for the Analysis of Learning and Achievement in Mathematics (PALMA) longitudinal study, which investigated adolescents' development in mathematics (Grades 5-9; N = 3,425 German students; mean starting age = 11.7 years; representative sample). Structural equation modeling showed that positive emotions (enjoyment, pride) positively predicted subsequent achievement (math end-of-the-year grades and test scores), and that achievement positively predicted these emotions, controlling for students' gender, intelligence, and family socioeconomic status. Negative emotions (anger, anxiety, shame, boredom, hopelessness) negatively predicted achievement, and achievement negatively predicted these emotions. The findings were robust across waves, achievement indicators, and school tracks, highlighting the importance of emotions for students' achievement and of achievement for the development of emotions. © 2017 The Authors. Child Development © 2017 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

Determination of heat capacity of ionic liquid based nanofluids using group method of data handling technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadi, Maryam

2018-01-01

In this study a group method of data handling model has been successfully developed to predict heat capacity of ionic liquid based nanofluids by considering reduced temperature, acentric factor and molecular weight of ionic liquids, and nanoparticle concentration as input parameters. In order to accomplish modeling, 528 experimental data points extracted from the literature have been divided into training and testing subsets. The training set has been used to predict model coefficients and the testing set has been applied for model validation. The ability and accuracy of developed model, has been evaluated by comparison of model predictions with experimental values using different statistical parameters such as coefficient of determination, mean square error and mean absolute percentage error. The mean absolute percentage error of developed model for training and testing sets are 1.38% and 1.66%, respectively, which indicate excellent agreement between model predictions and experimental data. Also, the results estimated by the developed GMDH model exhibit a higher accuracy when compared to the available theoretical correlations.

Comparison of Prediction Model for Cardiovascular Autonomic Dysfunction Using Artificial Neural Network and Logistic Regression Analysis

PubMed Central

Zeng, Fangfang; Li, Zhongtao; Yu, Xiaoling; Zhou, Linuo

2013-01-01

Background This study aimed to develop the artificial neural network (ANN) and multivariable logistic regression (LR) analyses for prediction modeling of cardiovascular autonomic (CA) dysfunction in the general population, and compare the prediction models using the two approaches. Methods and Materials We analyzed a previous dataset based on a Chinese population sample consisting of 2,092 individuals aged 30–80 years. The prediction models were derived from an exploratory set using ANN and LR analysis, and were tested in the validation set. Performances of these prediction models were then compared. Results Univariate analysis indicated that 14 risk factors showed statistically significant association with the prevalence of CA dysfunction (P<0.05). The mean area under the receiver-operating curve was 0.758 (95% CI 0.724–0.793) for LR and 0.762 (95% CI 0.732–0.793) for ANN analysis, but noninferiority result was found (P<0.001). The similar results were found in comparisons of sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values in the prediction models between the LR and ANN analyses. Conclusion The prediction models for CA dysfunction were developed using ANN and LR. ANN and LR are two effective tools for developing prediction models based on our dataset. PMID:23940593

Development of a flood-induced health risk prediction model for Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, D.; Block, P. J.

2017-12-01

Globally, many floods occur in developing or tropical regions where the impact on public health is substantial, including death and injury, drinking water, endemic disease, and so on. Although these flood impacts on public health have been investigated, integrated management of floods and flood-induced health risks is technically and institutionally limited. Specifically, while the use of climatic and hydrologic forecasts for disaster management has been highlighted, analogous predictions for forecasting the magnitude and impact of health risks are lacking, as is the infrastructure for health early warning systems, particularly in developing countries. In this study, we develop flood-induced health risk prediction model for African regions using season-ahead flood predictions with climate drivers and a variety of physical and socio-economic information, such as local hazard, exposure, resilience, and health vulnerability indicators. Skillful prediction of flood and flood-induced health risks can contribute to practical pre- and post-disaster responses in both local- and global-scales, and may eventually be integrated into multi-hazard early warning systems for informed advanced planning and management. This is especially attractive for areas with limited observations and/or little capacity to develop flood-induced health risk warning systems.

Mean Expected Error in Prediction of Total Body Water: A True Accuracy Comparison between Bioimpedance Spectroscopy and Single Frequency Regression Equations

PubMed Central

Abtahi, Shirin; Abtahi, Farhad; Ellegård, Lars; Johannsson, Gudmundur; Bosaeus, Ingvar

2015-01-01

For several decades electrical bioimpedance (EBI) has been used to assess body fluid distribution and body composition. Despite the development of several different approaches for assessing total body water (TBW), it remains uncertain whether bioimpedance spectroscopic (BIS) approaches are more accurate than single frequency regression equations. The main objective of this study was to answer this question by calculating the expected accuracy of a single measurement for different EBI methods. The results of this study showed that all methods produced similarly high correlation and concordance coefficients, indicating good accuracy as a method. Even the limits of agreement produced from the Bland-Altman analysis indicated that the performance of single frequency, Sun's prediction equations, at population level was close to the performance of both BIS methods; however, when comparing the Mean Absolute Percentage Error value between the single frequency prediction equations and the BIS methods, a significant difference was obtained, indicating slightly better accuracy for the BIS methods. Despite the higher accuracy of BIS methods over 50 kHz prediction equations at both population and individual level, the magnitude of the improvement was small. Such slight improvement in accuracy of BIS methods is suggested insufficient to warrant their clinical use where the most accurate predictions of TBW are required, for example, when assessing over-fluidic status on dialysis. To reach expected errors below 4-5%, novel and individualized approaches must be developed to improve the accuracy of bioimpedance-based methods for the advent of innovative personalized health monitoring applications. PMID:26137489

Predictive occurrence models for coastal wetland plant communities: Delineating hydrologic response surfaces with multinomial logistic regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snedden, Gregg A.; Steyer, Gregory D.

2013-02-01

Understanding plant community zonation along estuarine stress gradients is critical for effective conservation and restoration of coastal wetland ecosystems. We related the presence of plant community types to estuarine hydrology at 173 sites across coastal Louisiana. Percent relative cover by species was assessed at each site near the end of the growing season in 2008, and hourly water level and salinity were recorded at each site Oct 2007-Sep 2008. Nine plant community types were delineated with k-means clustering, and indicator species were identified for each of the community types with indicator species analysis. An inverse relation between salinity and species diversity was observed. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) effectively segregated the sites across ordination space by community type, and indicated that salinity and tidal amplitude were both important drivers of vegetation composition. Multinomial logistic regression (MLR) and Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) were used to predict the probability of occurrence of the nine vegetation communities as a function of salinity and tidal amplitude, and probability surfaces obtained from the MLR model corroborated the CCA results. The weighted kappa statistic, calculated from the confusion matrix of predicted versus actual community types, was 0.7 and indicated good agreement between observed community types and model predictions. Our results suggest that models based on a few key hydrologic variables can be valuable tools for predicting vegetation community development when restoring and managing coastal wetlands.

Systematic drug repositioning for a wide range of diseases with integrative analyses of phenotypic and molecular data.

PubMed

Iwata, Hiroaki; Sawada, Ryusuke; Mizutani, Sayaka; Yamanishi, Yoshihiro

2015-02-23

Drug repositioning, or the application of known drugs to new indications, is a challenging issue in pharmaceutical science. In this study, we developed a new computational method to predict unknown drug indications for systematic drug repositioning in a framework of supervised network inference. We defined a descriptor for each drug-disease pair based on the phenotypic features of drugs (e.g., medicinal effects and side effects) and various molecular features of diseases (e.g., disease-causing genes, diagnostic markers, disease-related pathways, and environmental factors) and constructed a statistical model to predict new drug-disease associations for a wide range of diseases in the International Classification of Diseases. Our results show that the proposed method outperforms previous methods in terms of accuracy and applicability, and its performance does not depend on drug chemical structure similarity. Finally, we performed a comprehensive prediction of a drug-disease association network consisting of 2349 drugs and 858 diseases and described biologically meaningful examples of newly predicted drug indications for several types of cancers and nonhereditary diseases.

Extraction and prediction of indices for monsoon intraseasonal oscillations: an approach based on nonlinear Laplacian spectral analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabeerali, C. T.; Ajayamohan, R. S.; Giannakis, Dimitrios; Majda, Andrew J.

2017-11-01

An improved index for real-time monitoring and forecast verification of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs) is introduced using the recently developed nonlinear Laplacian spectral analysis (NLSA) technique. Using NLSA, a hierarchy of Laplace-Beltrami (LB) eigenfunctions are extracted from unfiltered daily rainfall data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project over the south Asian monsoon region. Two modes representing the full life cycle of the northeastward-propagating boreal summer MISO are identified from the hierarchy of LB eigenfunctions. These modes have a number of advantages over MISO modes extracted via extended empirical orthogonal function analysis including higher memory and predictability, stronger amplitude and higher fractional explained variance over the western Pacific, Western Ghats, and adjoining Arabian Sea regions, and more realistic representation of the regional heat sources over the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Real-time prediction of NLSA-derived MISO indices is demonstrated via extended-range hindcasts based on NCEP Coupled Forecast System version 2 operational output. It is shown that in these hindcasts the NLSA MISO indices remain predictable out to ˜3 weeks.

Establishment and validation of the scoring system for preoperative prediction of central lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid carcinoma.

PubMed

Liu, Wen; Cheng, Ruochuan; Ma, Yunhai; Wang, Dan; Su, Yanjun; Diao, Chang; Zhang, Jianming; Qian, Jun; Liu, Jin

2018-05-03

Early preoperative diagnosis of central lymph node metastasis (CNM) is crucial to improve survival rates among patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). Here, we analyzed clinical data from 2862 PTC patients and developed a scoring system using multivariable logistic regression and testified by the validation group. The predictive diagnostic effectiveness of the scoring system was evaluated based on consistency, discrimination ability, and accuracy. The scoring system considered seven variables: gender, age, tumor size, microcalcification, resistance index >0.7, multiple nodular lesions, and extrathyroid extension. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.742, indicating a good discrimination. Using 5 points as a diagnostic threshold, the validation results for validation group had an AUC of 0.758, indicating good discrimination and consistency in the scoring system. The sensitivity of this predictive model for preoperative diagnosis of CNM was 4 times higher than a direct ultrasound diagnosis. These data indicate that the CNM prediction model would improve preoperative diagnostic sensitivity for CNM in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma.

Development and testing of the Shenandoah collector

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kinoshita, G. S.

1981-01-01

The test and development of the 7-meter Shenandoah parabolic dish collector incorporating an FEK-244 film reflective surface and cavity receiver are described. Four prototypes tested in the midtemperature Solar System Test Facility indicate, with changes incorporated from these development tests, that the improvements should lead to predicted performance levels in the production collectors.

Integrating predictive information into an agro-economic model to guide agricultural management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Block, P.

2016-12-01

Skillful season-ahead climate predictions linked with responsive agricultural planning and management have the potential to reduce losses, if adopted by farmers, particularly for rainfed-dominated agriculture such as in Ethiopia. Precipitation predictions during the growing season in major agricultural regions of Ethiopia are used to generate predicted climate yield factors, which reflect the influence of precipitation amounts on crop yields and serve as inputs into an agro-economic model. The adapted model, originally developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute, produces outputs of economic indices (GDP, poverty rates, etc.) at zonal and national levels. Forecast-based approaches, in which farmers' actions are in response to forecasted conditions, are compared with no-forecast approaches in which farmers follow business as usual practices, expecting "average" climate conditions. The effects of farmer adoption rates, including the potential for reduced uptake due to poor predictions, and increasing forecast lead-time on economic outputs are also explored. Preliminary results indicate superior gains under forecast-based approaches.

Educator Perceptions of the Optimal Professional Development Experience

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pettet, Kent Lloyd

2013-01-01

The purpose of this quantitative study was to examine the educator's perception of the optimal professional development experience. Research studies have concluded that the biggest indicator to predict student achievement is teacher effectiveness (Aaronson, Barrow, & Sander, 2007; Marzano, 2003; Sanders & Horn, 1998; Wong 2001). Guskey…

Spanish Readability Formulas for Elementary-Level Texts: A Validation Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Parker, Richard I.; Hasbrouck, Jan E.; Weaver, Laurie

2001-01-01

Uses two formulas developed for Spanish language text to analyze 9 stories that were read by 36 Spanish-speaking second graders with limited English proficiency. Finds that the Spanish readability formulas only weakly predicted student performance, indicating the need to pursue broader, qualitative indices of difficulty for Spanish text. (SG)

Sensitivity, Specificity, PPV, and NPV for Predictive Biomarkers.

PubMed

Simon, Richard

2015-08-01

Molecularly targeted cancer drugs are often developed with companion diagnostics that attempt to identify which patients will have better outcome on the new drug than the control regimen. Such predictive biomarkers are playing an increasingly important role in precision oncology. For diagnostic tests, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive are usually used as performance measures. This paper discusses these indices for predictive biomarkers, provides methods for their calculation with survival or response endpoints, and describes assumptions involved in their use. Published by Oxford University Press 2015. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

Numerical modeling of particle generation from ozone reactions with human-worn clothing in indoor environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rai, Aakash C.; Lin, Chao-Hsin; Chen, Qingyan

2015-02-01

Ozone-terpene reactions are important sources of indoor ultrafine particles (UFPs), a potential health hazard for human beings. Humans themselves act as possible sites for ozone-initiated particle generation through reactions with squalene (a terpene) that is present in their skin, hair, and clothing. This investigation developed a numerical model to probe particle generation from ozone reactions with clothing worn by humans. The model was based on particle generation measured in an environmental chamber as well as physical formulations of particle nucleation, condensational growth, and deposition. In five out of the six test cases, the model was able to predict particle size distributions reasonably well. The failure in the remaining case demonstrated the fundamental limitations of nucleation models. The model that was developed was used to predict particle generation under various building and airliner cabin conditions. These predictions indicate that ozone reactions with human-worn clothing could be an important source of UFPs in densely occupied classrooms and airliner cabins. Those reactions could account for about 40% of the total UFPs measured on a Boeing 737-700 flight. The model predictions at this stage are indicative and should be improved further.

Wind noise measured at the ground surface.

PubMed

Yu, Jiao; Raspet, Richard; Webster, Jeremy; Abbott, Johnpaul

2011-02-01

Measurements of the wind noise measured at the ground surface outdoors are analyzed using the mirror flow model of anisotropic turbulence by Kraichnan [J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 28(3), 378-390 (1956)]. Predictions of the resulting behavior of the turbulence spectrum with height are developed, as well as predictions of the turbulence-shear interaction pressure at the surface for different wind velocity profiles and microphone mounting geometries are developed. The theoretical results of the behavior of the velocity spectra with height are compared to measurements to demonstrate the applicability of the mirror flow model to outdoor turbulence. The use of a logarithmic wind velocity profile for analysis is tested using meteorological models for wind velocity profiles under different stability conditions. Next, calculations of the turbulence-shear interaction pressure are compared to flush microphone measurements at the surface and microphone measurements with a foam covering flush with the surface. The measurements underneath the thin layers of foam agree closely with the predictions, indicating that the turbulence-shear interaction pressure is the dominant source of wind noise at the surface. The flush microphones measurements are intermittently larger than the predictions which may indicate other contributions not accounted for by the turbulence-shear interaction pressure.

Chinese Preschool Children’s Socioemotional Development: The Effects of Maternal and Paternal Psychological Control

PubMed Central

Xing, Shufen; Gao, Xin; Song, Xinxin; Archer, Marc; Zhao, Demao; Zhang, Mengting; Ding, Bilei; Liu, Xia

2017-01-01

The present study examined the relative prediction and joint effects of maternal and paternal psychological control on children’s socioemotional development. A total of 325 preschool children between the ages of 34 and 57 months (M = 4 years 2 months) and their parents participated in the study. Fathers and mothers, respectively, reported their levels of psychological control and mothers evaluated the socioemotional development of children using two indicators (i.e., behavioral problems and prosocial behaviors). The results indicated that the relative predictive effects of maternal and paternal psychological control on children’s socioemotional development differed. Specifically, maternal psychological control was a significant predictor of children’s behavioral problems and prosocial behaviors, whereas the levels of paternal psychological control were unrelated to children’s socioemotional development. With regard to the combined effects of maternal and paternal psychological control, the results of ANOVAs and simple slope analysis both indicated that children would be at risk of behavioral problems as long as they had one highly psychologically controlling parent. High levels of paternal psychological control were associated with increased behavioral problems of children only when maternal psychological control was low. However, the association between maternal psychological control and children’s behavioral behaviors was significant, despite paternal psychological control. PMID:29093691

Modeling and Characterization of a Graphite Nanoplatelet/Epoxy Composite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Odegard, Gregory M.; Chasiotis, I.; Chen, Q.; Gates, T. S.

2004-01-01

A micromechanical modeling procedure is developed to predict the viscoelastic properties of a graphite nanoplatelet/epoxy composite as a function of volume fraction and nanoplatelet diameter. The predicted storage and loss moduli from the model are compared to measured values from the same material using Dynamical Mechanical Analysis, nanoindentation, and tensile tests. In most cases, the model and experiments indicate that for increasing volume fractions of nanoplatelets, both the storage and loss moduli increase. Also, in most cases, the model and experiments indicate that as the nanoplatelet diameter is increased, the storage and loss moduli decrease and increase, respectively.

a Process-Based Drought Early Warning Indicator for Supporting State Drought Mitigation Decision

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, R.; Fernando, D. N.; Pu, B.

2014-12-01

Drought prone states such as Texas requires creditable and actionable drought early warning ranging from seasonal to multi-decadal scales. Such information cannot be simply extracted from the available climate prediction and projections because of their large uncertainties at regional scales and unclear connections to the needs of the decision makers. In particular, current dynamic seasonal predictions and climate projections, such as those produced by the NOAA national multi-models ensemble experiment (NMME) and the IPCC AR5 (CMIP5) models, are much more reliable for winter and spring than for the summer season for the US Southern Plains. They also show little connection between the droughts in winter/spring and those in summer, in contrast to the observed dry memory from spring to summer over that region. To mitigate the weakness of dynamic prediction/projections, we have identified three key processes behind the spring-to-summer dry memory through observational studies. Based on these key processes and related fields, we have developed a multivariate principle component statistical model to provide a probabilistic summer drought early warning indicator, using the observed or predicted climate conditions in winter and spring on seasonal scale and climate projection for the mid-21stcentury. The summer drought early warning indicator is constructed in a similar way to the NOAA probabilistic predictions that are familiar to water resource managers. The indicator skill is assessed using the standard NOAA climate prediction assessment tools, i.e., the two alternative forced choice (2AFC) and the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC). Comparison with long-term observations suggest that this summer drought early warning indicator is able to capture nearly all the strong summer droughts and outperform the dynamic prediction in this regard over the US Southern Plains. This early warning indicator has been used by the state water agency in May 2014 in briefing the state drought preparedness council and will be provided to stake holders through the website of the Texas state water planning agency. We will also present the results of our ongoing work on using NASA satellite based soil moisture and vegetation stress measurements to further improve the reliability of the summer drought early warning indicator.

The application of SHERPA (Systematic Human Error Reduction and Prediction Approach) in the development of compensatory cognitive rehabilitation strategies for stroke patients with left and right brain damage.

PubMed

Hughes, Charmayne M L; Baber, Chris; Bienkiewicz, Marta; Worthington, Andrew; Hazell, Alexa; Hermsdörfer, Joachim

2015-01-01

Approximately 33% of stroke patients have difficulty performing activities of daily living, often committing errors during the planning and execution of such activities. The objective of this study was to evaluate the ability of the human error identification (HEI) technique SHERPA (Systematic Human Error Reduction and Prediction Approach) to predict errors during the performance of daily activities in stroke patients with left and right hemisphere lesions. Using SHERPA we successfully predicted 36 of the 38 observed errors, with analysis indicating that the proportion of predicted and observed errors was similar for all sub-tasks and severity levels. HEI results were used to develop compensatory cognitive strategies that clinicians could employ to reduce or prevent errors from occurring. This study provides evidence for the reliability and validity of SHERPA in the design of cognitive rehabilitation strategies in stroke populations.

Predictive accuracy of a ground-water model--Lessons from a postaudit

USGS Publications Warehouse

Konikow, Leonard F.

1986-01-01

Hydrogeologic studies commonly include the development, calibration, and application of a deterministic simulation model. To help assess the value of using such models to make predictions, a postaudit was conducted on a previously studied area in the Salt River and lower Santa Cruz River basins in central Arizona. A deterministic, distributed-parameter model of the ground-water system in these alluvial basins was calibrated by Anderson (1968) using about 40 years of data (1923–64). The calibrated model was then used to predict future water-level changes during the next 10 years (1965–74). Examination of actual water-level changes in 77 wells from 1965–74 indicates a poor correlation between observed and predicted water-level changes. The differences have a mean of 73 ft that is, predicted declines consistently exceeded those observed and a standard deviation of 47 ft. The bias in the predicted water-level change can be accounted for by the large error in the assumed total pumpage during the prediction period. However, the spatial distribution of errors in predicted water-level change does not correlate with the spatial distribution of errors in pumpage. Consequently, the lack of precision probably is not related only to errors in assumed pumpage, but may indicate the presence of other sources of error in the model, such as the two-dimensional representation of a three-dimensional problem or the lack of consideration of land-subsidence processes. This type of postaudit is a valuable method of verifying a model, and an evaluation of predictive errors can provide an increased understanding of the system and aid in assessing the value of undertaking development of a revised model.

An empirical, graphical, and analytical study of the relationship between vegetation indices. [derived from LANDSAT data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lautenschlager, L.; Perry, C. R., Jr. (Principal Investigator)

1981-01-01

The development of formulae for the reduction of multispectral scanner measurements to a single value (vegetation index) for predicting and assessing vegetative characteristics is addressed. The origin, motivation, and derivation of some four dozen vegetation indices are summarized. Empirical, graphical, and analytical techniques are used to investigate the relationships among the various indices. It is concluded that many vegetative indices are very similar, some being simple algebraic transforms of others.

Review of Cuttability Indices and A New Rockmass Classification Approach for Selection of Surface Miners

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dey, Kaushik; Ghose, A. K.

2011-09-01

Rock excavation is carried out either by drilling and blasting or using rock-cutting machines like rippers, bucket wheel excavators, surface miners, road headers etc. Economics of mechanised rock excavation by rock-cutting machines largely depends on the achieved production rates. Thus, assessment of the performance (productivity) is important prior to deploying a rock-cutting machine. In doing so, several researchers have classified rockmass in different ways and have developed cuttability indices to correlate machine performance directly. However, most of these indices were developed to assess the performance of road headers/tunnel-boring machines apart from a few that were developed in the earlier days when the ripper was a popular excavating equipment. Presently, around 400 surface miners are in operation around the world amongst which, 105 are in India. Until now, no rockmass classification system is available to assess the performance of surface miners. Surface miners are being deployed largely on trial and error basis or based on the performance charts provided by the manufacturer. In this context, it is logical to establish a suitable cuttability index to predict the performance of surface miners. In this present paper, the existing cuttability indices are reviewed and a new cuttability indexes proposed. A new relationship is also developed to predict the output from surface miners using the proposed cuttability index.

Assessment and prediction of drying shrinkage cracking in bonded mortar overlays

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beushausen, Hans, E-mail: hans.beushausen@uct.ac.za; Chilwesa, Masuzyo

2013-11-15

Restrained drying shrinkage cracking was investigated on composite beams consisting of substrate concrete and bonded mortar overlays, and compared to the performance of the same mortars when subjected to the ring test. Stress development and cracking in the composite specimens were analytically modeled and predicted based on the measurement of relevant time-dependent material properties such as drying shrinkage, elastic modulus, tensile relaxation and tensile strength. Overlay cracking in the composite beams could be very well predicted with the analytical model. The ring test provided a useful qualitative comparison of the cracking performance of the mortars. The duration of curing wasmore » found to only have a minor influence on crack development. This was ascribed to the fact that prolonged curing has a beneficial effect on tensile strength at the onset of stress development, but is in the same time not beneficial to the values of tensile relaxation and elastic modulus. -- Highlights: •Parameter study on material characteristics influencing overlay cracking. •Analytical model gives good quantitative indication of overlay cracking. •Ring test presents good qualitative indication of overlay cracking. •Curing duration has little effect on overlay cracking.« less

Prediction of laser cutting heat affected zone by extreme learning machine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anicic, Obrad; Jović, Srđan; Skrijelj, Hivzo; Nedić, Bogdan

2017-01-01

Heat affected zone (HAZ) of the laser cutting process may be developed based on combination of different factors. In this investigation the HAZ forecasting, based on the different laser cutting parameters, was analyzed. The main goal was to predict the HAZ according to three inputs. The purpose of this research was to develop and apply the Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) to predict the HAZ. The ELM results were compared with genetic programming (GP) and artificial neural network (ANN). The reliability of the computational models were accessed based on simulation results and by using several statistical indicators. Based upon simulation results, it was demonstrated that ELM can be utilized effectively in applications of HAZ forecasting.

Low predictability of anthropometric indicators of obesity in metabolic syndrome (MS) risks among elderly women.

PubMed

Chu, Fu-Ling; Hsu, Chung-Huei; Jeng, Chii

2012-01-01

While diagnostic criteria for MS may vary depending on ethnicity, obesity remains a key risk factor in its development. In Taiwan, the incidence of obesity and MS among women has been increasing; however cut-off values for defining obesity for the diagnosis of MS among different groups of women have not been clearly established. The goal of this research was to examine the suitability of various anthropometric indicators of obesity in predicting the presence of MS criteria and to determine appropriate cut-off values of these indicators for women of different age and menstrual status. The sample was derived from the 2002 "Taiwan Three High Prevalence Survey" database. Women were divided into three groups based on age and menstrual status. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves was applied to the anthropometric indicators of obesity including, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), to ascertain its value in predicting MS. 2848 cases were included. It was found that most MS component values were worse with age and following menopause. Obesity indicators showed poor predictability for MS risks in post-menopausal women over 65 years, but good predictability in women under 65 years; our study revealed the following as ideal cut-off values for non-menopausal female: WHtR<0.49, WC<78 cm, WHR<0.79, BMI<24 kg/m(2); for menopausal women, WHtR<0.54, WC<83 cm, WHR<0.84, BMI<24.4 kg/m(2). It was concluded that obesity alone is not a reliable predictor of MS risks in women over the age of 65, and cut-off values for obesity indicators need to be further reduced in non-menopausal women. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

RELATIONSHIPS AMONG SEMEN ENDPOINTS USED AS INDICATORS OF SPERM NUCLEAR INTEGRITY

EPA Science Inventory

Recent attention has been directed towards developing assays that measure the genomic integrity of the sperm nucleus with the objective of predicting infertility, and/or the risk of sperm-mediated miscarriage or development deficits. These assays are also being used in efforts t...

Dynamic value assessments in oncology supported by the PACE Continuous Innovation Indicators.

PubMed

Paddock, Silvia; Goodman, Clifford; Shortenhaus, Scott; Grainger, David; Zummo, Jacqueline; Thomas, Samuel

2017-10-01

Several recently developed frameworks aim to assess the value of cancer treatments, but the most appropriate metrics remain uncertain. We use data from the Patient Access to Cancer care Excellence Continuous Innovation Indicators to examine the relationship between hazard ratios (HRs) from clinical trials and dynamic therapeutic value accumulating over time. Our analysis shows that HRs from initial clinical trials poorly predict the eventual therapeutic value of cancer treatments. Relying strongly on HRs from registration trials to predict the long-term success of treatments leaves a lot of the variance unexplained. The Continuous Innovation Indicators offer a complementing, dynamic method to track the therapeutic value of cancer treatments and continuously update value assessments as additional evidence accumulates.

Predict and Analyze Protein Glycation Sites with the mRMR and IFS Methods

PubMed Central

Gu, Wenxiang; Zhang, Wenyi; Wang, Jianan

2015-01-01

Glycation is a nonenzymatic process in which proteins react with reducing sugar molecules. The identification of glycation sites in protein may provide guidelines to understand the biological function of protein glycation. In this study, we developed a computational method to predict protein glycation sites by using the support vector machine classifier. The experimental results showed that the prediction accuracy was 85.51% and an overall MCC was 0.70. Feature analysis indicated that the composition of k-spaced amino acid pairs feature contributed the most for glycation sites prediction. PMID:25961025

A method for neighborhood-level surveillance of food purchasing.

PubMed

Buckeridge, David L; Charland, Katia; Labban, Alice; Ma, Yu

2014-12-01

Added sugar, particularly in carbonated soft drinks (CSDs), represents a considerable proportion of caloric intake in North America. Interventions to decrease the intake of added sugar have been proposed, but monitoring their effectiveness can be difficult due to the costs and limitations of dietary surveys. We developed, assessed the accuracy of, and took an initial step toward validating an indicator of neighborhood-level purchases of CSDs using automatically captured store scanner data in Montreal, Canada, between 2008 and 2010 and census data describing neighborhood socioeconomic characteristics. Our indicator predicted total monthly neighborhood sales based on historical sales and promotions and characteristics of the stores and neighborhoods. The prediction error for monthly sales in sampled stores was low (2.2%), and we demonstrated a negative association between predicted total sales and median personal income. For each $10,000 decrease in median personal income, we observed a fivefold increase in predicted monthly sales of CSDs. This indicator can be used by public health agencies to implement automated systems for neighborhood-level monitoring of an important upstream determinant of health. Future refinement of this indicator is possible to account for factors such as store catchment areas and to incorporate nutritional information about products. © 2014 New York Academy of Sciences.

Conceptual Model for Basement and Surface Structure Relationships in an Oblique Collision, Sawtooth Range, MT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palu, J. M.; Burberry, C. M.

2014-12-01

The reactivation potential of pre-existing basement structures affects the geometry of subsequent deformation structures. A conceptual model depicting the results of these interactions can be applied to multiple fold-thrust systems and lead to valuable deformation predictions. These predictions include the potential for hydrocarbon traps or seismic risk in an actively deforming area. The Sawtooth Range, Montana, has been used as a study area. A model for the development of structures close to the Augusta Syncline in the Sawtooth Range is being developed using: 1) an ArcGIS map of the basement structures of the belt based on analysis of geophysical data indicating gravity anomalies and aeromagnetic lineations, seismic data indicating deformation structures, and well logs for establishing lithologies, previously collected by others and 2) an ArcGIS map of the surface deformation structures of the belt based on interpretation of remote sensing images and verification through the collection of surface field data indicating stress directions and age relationships, resulting in a conceptual model based on the understanding of the interaction of the two previous maps including statistical correlations of data and development of balanced cross-sections using Midland Valley's 2D/3D Move software. An analysis of the model will then indicate viable deformation paths where prominent basement structures influenced subsequently developed deformation structures and reactivated faults. Preliminary results indicate that the change in orientation of thrust faults observed in the Sawtooth Range, from a NNW-SSE orientation near the Gibson Reservoir to a WNW-ESE trend near Haystack Butte correlates with pre-existing deformation structures lying within the Great Falls Tectonic Zone. The Scapegoat-Bannatyne trend appears to be responsible for this orientation change and rather than being a single feature, may be composed of up to 4 NE-SW oriented basement strike-slip faults. This indicates that the pre-existing basement features have a profound effect on the geometry of the later deformation. This conceptual model can also be applied to other deformed belts to provide a prediction for the potential hydrocarbon trap locations of the belt as well as their seismic risk.

A Predictive Model of Daily Seismic Activity Induced by Mining, Developed with Data Mining Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakubowski, Jacek

2014-12-01

The article presents the development and evaluation of a predictive classification model of daily seismic energy emissions induced by longwall mining in sector XVI of the Piast coal mine in Poland. The model uses data on tremor energy, basic characteristics of the longwall face and mined output in this sector over the period from July 1987 to March 2011. The predicted binary variable is the occurrence of a daily sum of tremor seismic energies in a longwall that is greater than or equal to the threshold value of 105 J. Three data mining analytical methods were applied: logistic regression,neural networks, and stochastic gradient boosted trees. The boosted trees model was chosen as the best for the purposes of the prediction. The validation sample results showed its good predictive capability, taking the complex nature of the phenomenon into account. This may indicate the applied model's suitability for a sequential, short-term prediction of mining induced seismic activity.

Combining Traditional Cyber Security Audit Data with Psychosocial Data: Towards Predictive Modeling for Insider Threat Mitigation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Greitzer, Frank L.; Frincke, Deborah A.

2010-09-01

The purpose of this chapter is to motivate the combination of traditional cyber security audit data with psychosocial data, so as to move from an insider threat detection stance to one that enables prediction of potential insider presence. Two distinctive aspects of the approach are the objective of predicting or anticipating potential risks and the use of organizational data in addition to cyber data to support the analysis. The chapter describes the challenges of this endeavor and progress in defining a usable set of predictive indicators, developing a framework for integrating the analysis of organizational and cyber security data tomore » yield predictions about possible insider exploits, and developing the knowledge base and reasoning capability of the system. We also outline the types of errors that one expects in a predictive system versus a detection system and discuss how those errors can affect the usefulness of the results.« less

An indigenously developed nitrite kit to aid in the diagnosis of urinary tract infection.

PubMed

Sood, S; Upadhyaya, P; Kapil, A; Lodha, R; Jain, Y; Bagga, A

1999-09-01

To evaluate the utility of an indigenously developed nitrite kit for the rapid diagnosis of urinary tract infection (UTI) METHODS: 1018 urine specimens were collected from all cases where there was clinical suspicion of UTI. Samples were cultured as per standard microbiological protocol. Presence of nitrites was indicated by the development of purple color on addition of color developing solution and compared with the set of graded positive and negative controls also provided in the Kit. The results of the nitrite kit were compared with the semi-quantitative urine culture as the gold standard. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive and negative predictive values were 47%, 87%, 31% and 93%, respectively. Nitrite kit as a screening test can decrease the work load in the clinical bacteriology laboratory. More importantly in a field set up that is devoid of culture facilities, it can be used to correctly predict the absence of UTI.

Development of a traveltime prediction equation for streams in Arkansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funkhouser, Jaysson E.; Barks, C. Shane

2004-01-01

During 1971 and 1981 and 2001 and 2003, traveltime measurements were made at 33 sample sites on 18 streams throughout northern and western Arkansas using fluorescent dye. Most measurements were made during steady-state base-flow conditions with the exception of three measurements made during near steady-state medium-flow conditions (for the study described in this report, medium-flow is approximately 100-150 percent of the mean monthly streamflow during the month the dye trace was conducted). These traveltime data were compared to the U.S. Geological Survey?s national traveltime prediction equation and used to develop a specific traveltime prediction equation for Arkansas streams. In general, the national traveltime prediction equation yielded results that over-predicted the velocity of the streams for 29 of the 33 sites measured. The standard error for the national traveltime prediction equation was 105 percent. The coefficient of determination was 0.78. The Arkansas prediction equation developed from a regression analysis of dye-tracing results was a significant improvement over the national prediction equation. This regression analysis yielded a standard error of 46 percent and a coefficient of determination of 0.74. The predicted velocities using this equation compared better to measured velocities. Using the variables in a regression analysis, the Arkansas prediction equation derived for the peak velocity in feet per second was: (Actual Equation Shown in report) In addition to knowing when the peak concentration will arrive at a site, it is of great interest to know when the leading edge of a contaminant plume will arrive. The traveltime of the leading edge of a contaminant plume indicates when a potential problem might first develop and also defines the overall shape of the concentration response function. Previous USGS reports have shown no significant relation between any of the variables and the time from injection to the arrival of the leading edge of the dye plume. For this report, the analysis of the dye-tracing data yielded a significant correlation between traveltime of the leading edge and traveltime of the peak concentration with an R2 value of 0.99. These data indicate that the traveltime of the leading edge can be estimated from: (Actual Equation Shown in Report)

Assessing the predictive value of the American Board of Family Practice In-training Examination.

PubMed

Replogle, William H; Johnson, William D

2004-03-01

The American Board of Family Practice In-training Examination (ABFP ITE) is a cognitive examination similar in content to the ABFP Certification Examination (CE). The ABFP ITE is widely used in family medicine residency programs. It was originally developed and intended to be used for assessment of groups of residents. Despite lack of empirical support, however, some residency programs are using ABFP ITE scores as individual resident performance indicators. This study's objective was to estimate the positive predictive value of the ABFP ITE for identifying residents at risk for poor performance on the ABFP CE or a subsequent ABFP ITE. We used a normal distribution model for correlated test scores and Monte Carlo simulation to investigate the effect of test reliability (measurement errors) on the positive predictive value of the ABFP ITE. The positive predictive value of the composite score was .72. The positive predictive value of the eight specialty subscales ranged from .26 to .57. Only the composite score of the ABFP ITE has acceptable positive predictive value to be used as part of a comprehension resident evaluation system. The ABFP ITE specialty subscales do not have sufficient positive predictive value or reliability to warrant use as performance indicators.

Prediction of severe thunderstorms over Sriharikota Island by using the WRF-ARW operational model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papa Rao, G.; Rajasekhar, M.; Pushpa Saroja, R.; Sreeshna, T.; Rajeevan, M.; Ramakrishna, S. S. V. S.

2016-05-01

Operational short range prediction of Meso-scale thunderstorms for Sriharikota(13.7°N ,80.18°E) has been performed using two nested domains 27 & 9Km configuration of Weather Research & Forecasting-Advanced Research Weather Model (WRF- ARW V3.4).Thunderstorm is a Mesoscale system with spatial scale of few kilometers to a couple of 100 kilometers and time scale of less than an one hour to several hours, which produces heavy rain, lightning, thunder, surface wind squalls and down-bursts. Numerical study of Thunderstorms at Sriharikota and its neighborhood have been discussed with its antecedent thermodynamic stability indices and Parameters that are usually favorable for the development of convective instability based on WRF ARW model predictions. Instability is a prerequisite for the occurrence of severe weather, the greater the instability, the greater will be the potential of thunderstorm. In the present study, K Index, Total totals Index (TTI), Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), Convective Inhibition Energy (CINE), Lifted Index (LI), Precipitable Water (PW), etc. are the instability indices used for the short range prediction of thunderstorms. In this study we have made an attempt to estimate the skill of WRF ARW predictability and diagnosed three thunderstorms that occurred during the late evening to late night of 31st July, 20th September and 2nd October of 2015 over Sriharikota Island which are validated with Local Electric Field Mill (EFM), rainfall observations and Chennai Doppler Weather Radar products. The model predicted thermodynamic indices (CAPE, CINE, K Index, LI, TTI and PW) over Sriharikota which act as good indicators for severe thunderstorm activity.

Evaluation of decadal hindcasts by application of a satellite simulator for SSM/I & SSMIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spangehl, T.; Schroeder, M.; Glowienka-Hense, R.; Hense, A.; Bodas-Salcedo, A.; Hollmann, R.

2017-12-01

A satellite simulator for the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) and for the Special Sensor Microwave Imager and Sounder (SSMIS) is developed and applied to decadal hindcast simulations performed within the MiKlip project (http://fona-miklip.de, funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research in Germany). The aim is to evaluate the climatological and predictive skill of the hindcasts focusing on water cycle components. Classical evaluation approaches commonly focus on geophysical parameters such as temperature, precipitation or wind speed using observational datasets and reanalysis as reference. The employment of the satellite simulator enables an evaluation in the instrument's parameter and thereby reduces uncertainties on the reference side. The simulators are developed utilizing the CFMIP Observation Simulator Package (COSP, http://cfmip.metoffice.com/COSP.html). On the reference side the SSM/I & SSMIS Fundamental Climate Data Record (FCDR) provided by the CM SAF (DOI: 10.5676/EUM_SAF_CM/FCDR_MWI/V003) is used which constitutes a quality controlled, recalibrated and intercalibrated record of brightness temperatures for the period from 1978 to 2015. Simulated brightness temperatures for selected channels which are sensitive to either water vapor content (22 GHz) or hydrometeor content (85 GHz, vertical minus horizontal polarization) as an indicator for precipitation are used. For lead year 1 analysis of variance (ANOVA) reveals potential predictability for large parts of the tropical ocean areas for both water vapor and precipitation related channels. Furthermore, the Conditional Ranked Probability Skill Score (CRPSS) indicates predictive skill for large parts of the tropical/sub-tropical Pacific, parts of the tropical/sub-tropical Atlantic and the equatorial Indian Ocean. For lead years 2-3 ANOVA still indicates potential predictability for equatorial ocean areas. Moreover, CRPSS indicates predictive skill for parts of the tropical/subtropical ocean areas. These results suggest that the hindcasts show skill even beyond lead year 1 when comparing against climatology as a reference forecast.

Development and evaluation of a regression-based model to predict cesium-137 concentration ratios for saltwater fish.

PubMed

Pinder, John E; Rowan, David J; Smith, Jim T

2016-02-01

Data from published studies and World Wide Web sources were combined to develop a regression model to predict (137)Cs concentration ratios for saltwater fish. Predictions were developed from 1) numeric trophic levels computed primarily from random resampling of known food items and 2) K concentrations in the saltwater for 65 samplings from 41 different species from both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. A number of different models were initially developed and evaluated for accuracy which was assessed as the ratios of independently measured concentration ratios to those predicted by the model. In contrast to freshwater systems, were K concentrations are highly variable and are an important factor in affecting fish concentration ratios, the less variable K concentrations in saltwater were relatively unimportant in affecting concentration ratios. As a result, the simplest model, which used only trophic level as a predictor, had comparable accuracies to more complex models that also included K concentrations. A test of model accuracy involving comparisons of 56 published concentration ratios from 51 species of marine fish to those predicted by the model indicated that 52 of the predicted concentration ratios were within a factor of 2 of the observed concentration ratios. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Prediction Model for ROS1-Rearranged Lung Adenocarcinomas based on Histologic Features

PubMed Central

Zheng, Jing; Kong, Mei; Sun, Ke; Wang, Bo; Chen, Xi; Ding, Wei; Zhou, Jianying

2016-01-01

Aims To identify the clinical and histological characteristics of ROS1-rearranged non-small-cell lung carcinomas (NSCLCs) and build a prediction model to prescreen suitable patients for molecular testing. Methods and Results We identified 27 cases of ROS1-rearranged lung adenocarcinomas in 1165 patients with NSCLCs confirmed by real-time PCR and FISH and performed univariate and multivariate analyses to identify predictive factors associated with ROS1 rearrangement and finally developed prediction model. Detected with ROS1 immunochemistry, 59 cases of 1165 patients had a certain degree of ROS1 expression. Among these cases, 19 cases (68%, 19/28) with 3+ and 8 cases (47%, 8/17) with 2+ staining were ROS1 rearrangement verified by real-time PCR and FISH. In the resected group, the acinar-predominant growth pattern was the most commonly observed (57%, 8/14), while in the biopsy group, solid patterns were the most frequently observed (78%, 7/13). Based on multiple logistic regression analysis, we determined that female sex, cribriform structure and the presence of psammoma body were the three most powerful indicators of ROS1 rearrangement, and we have developed a predictive model for the presence of ROS1 rearrangements in lung adenocarcinomas. Conclusions Female, cribriform structure and presence of psammoma body were the three most powerful indicator of ROS1 rearrangement status, and predictive formula was helpful in screening ROS1-rearranged NSCLC, especially for ROS1 immunochemistry equivocal cases. PMID:27648828

Differences in the Vocational Interests of Research and Development Managers versus Technical Specialists.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hill, Raymond E.; Roselle, Pamela F.

1985-01-01

Compared the occupational interests of research and development managers (N=110) and technical specialists (N=55). Analysis on the general occupational themes and basic interest scales of the Strong-Campbell Interest Inventory indicated the social, enterprising, and conventional areas predicted managerial group membership, whereas the artistic…

Phonological and Non-Phonological Language Skills as Predictors of Early Reading Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Batson-Magnuson, LuAnn

2010-01-01

Accurate prediction of early childhood reading performance could help identify at-risk students, aid in the development of evidence-based intervention strategies, and further our theoretical understanding of reading development. This study assessed the validity of the Developmental Indicator for the Assessment of Learning (DIAL) language-based…

Design and Validation of Assessment Tests for Young Children in Zambia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Matafwali, Beatrice; Serpell, Robert

2014-01-01

Early childhood education has received unprecedented attention among African policymakers in recent years, recognizing that the early years form an important foundation upon which later development is anchored and noting evidence that various Early Childhood Development (ECD) indicators are predictive of future academic success. Central to the…

Measures of Hindu Pathways: Development and Preliminary Evidence of Reliability and Validity.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tarakeshwar, Nalini; Pargament, Kenneth I.; Mahoney, Annette

2003-01-01

Examines religious practices of Hindus in the United States and develops measures of their religious pathways. Four religious pathways were identified: devotion, ethical action, knowledge, and physical restraint/yoga. Results indicate that the measures of the religious pathways possessed adequate psychometric properties and were predictive of…

Detection of Glutamic Acid in Oilseed Rape Leaves Using Near Infrared Spectroscopy and the Least Squares-Support Vector Machine

PubMed Central

Bao, Yidan; Kong, Wenwen; Liu, Fei; Qiu, Zhengjun; He, Yong

2012-01-01

Amino acids are quite important indices to indicate the growth status of oilseed rape under herbicide stress. Near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy combined with chemometrics was applied for fast determination of glutamic acid in oilseed rape leaves. The optimal spectral preprocessing method was obtained after comparing Savitzky-Golay smoothing, standard normal variate, multiplicative scatter correction, first and second derivatives, detrending and direct orthogonal signal correction. Linear and nonlinear calibration methods were developed, including partial least squares (PLS) and least squares-support vector machine (LS-SVM). The most effective wavelengths (EWs) were determined by the successive projections algorithm (SPA), and these wavelengths were used as the inputs of PLS and LS-SVM model. The best prediction results were achieved by SPA-LS-SVM (Raw) model with correlation coefficient r = 0.9943 and root mean squares error of prediction (RMSEP) = 0.0569 for prediction set. These results indicated that NIR spectroscopy combined with SPA-LS-SVM was feasible for the fast and effective detection of glutamic acid in oilseed rape leaves. The selected EWs could be used to develop spectral sensors, and the important and basic amino acid data were helpful to study the function mechanism of herbicide. PMID:23203052

Poor early response to methotrexate portends inadequate long-term outcomes in patients with moderate-to-severe psoriasis: Evidence from 2 phase 3 clinical trials.

PubMed

Gordon, Kenneth B; Betts, Keith A; Sundaram, Murali; Signorovitch, James E; Li, Junlong; Xie, Meng; Wu, Eric Q; Okun, Martin M

2017-12-01

Most methotrexate-treated psoriasis patients do not achieve a long-term PASI75 (75% reduction from baseline Psoriasis Area and Severity Index score) response. Indications of nonresponse can be apparent after only 4 weeks of treatment. To develop a prediction rule to identify patients unlikely to respond adequately to methotrexate. Patient-level data from CHAMPION (NCT00235820, N = 110) was used to construct a prediction model for week 16 PASI75 by using patient baseline characteristics and week 4 PASI25. A prediction rule was determined on the basis of the sensitivity and specificity and validated in terms of week 16 PASI75 response in an independent validation sample from trial M10-255 (NCT00679731, N = 163). PASI25 achievement at week 4 (odds ratio = 8.917) was highly predictive of response with methotrexate at week 16. Patients with a predicted response probability <30% were recommended to discontinue methotrexate. The rates of week 16 PASI75 response were 65.8% and 21.1% (P < .001) for patients recommended to continue and discontinue methotrexate, respectively. The CHAMPION trial excluded patients previously treated with biologics, and the M10-255 trial had no restrictions. A prediction rule was developed and validated to identify patients unlikely to respond adequately to methotrexate. The rule indicates that 4 weeks of methotrexate might be sufficient to predict long-term response with limited safety risk. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting Tree Diameter Breast Height from Stump Measurements in the Southeast

Treesearch

Joe P. McClure

1968-01-01

When a tree has been cut and only the stump remains as an indicator of tree size, a prediction equation can be used to estimate d.b.h. from stump measurements.An improved equation model was developed from stump measurement data collected by Forest Survey special study crews in North Carolina, Virginia, and South Carolina.Independent samples from Virginia and South...

Some simulation estimates of mean annual increment of Douglas-fir: results, limitations, and implications for management.

Treesearch

Robert O. Curtis

1994-01-01

Patterns of development of mean annual increment in relation to age predicted by the widely used DFSIM, SPS, TASS, and ORGANON simulators were examined. Although predictions differ considerably among simulators for portions of the range of sites, ages, and treatments, comparisons indicated that (1) culmination is relatively late, (2) the curve is relatively flat in the...

Targeted On-Demand Team Performance App Development

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-10-01

from three sites; 6) Preliminary analysis indicates larger than estimate effect size and study is sufficiently powered for generalizable outcomes...statistical analyses, and examine any resulting qualitative data for trends or connections to statistical outcomes. On Schedule 21 Predictive...Preliminary analysis indicates larger than estimate effect size and study is sufficiently powered for generalizable outcomes.  What opportunities for

Development of predictive mapping techniques for soil survey and salinity mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elnaggar, Abdelhamid A.

Conventional soil maps represent a valuable source of information about soil characteristics, however they are subjective, very expensive, and time-consuming to prepare. Also, they do not include explicit information about the conceptual mental model used in developing them nor information about their accuracy, in addition to the error associated with them. Decision tree analysis (DTA) was successfully used in retrieving the expert knowledge embedded in old soil survey data. This knowledge was efficiently used in developing predictive soil maps for the study areas in Benton and Malheur Counties, Oregon and accessing their consistency. A retrieved soil-landscape model from a reference area in Harney County was extrapolated to develop a preliminary soil map for the neighboring unmapped part of Malheur County. The developed map had a low prediction accuracy and only a few soil map units (SMUs) were predicted with significant accuracy, mostly those shallow SMUs that have either a lithic contact with the bedrock or developed on a duripan. On the other hand, the developed soil map based on field data was predicted with very high accuracy (overall was about 97%). Salt-affected areas of the Malheur County study area are indicated by their high spectral reflectance and they are easily discriminated from the remote sensing data. However, remote sensing data fails to distinguish between the different classes of soil salinity. Using the DTA method, five classes of soil salinity were successfully predicted with an overall accuracy of about 99%. Moreover, the calculated area of salt-affected soil was overestimated when mapped using remote sensing data compared to that predicted by using DTA. Hence, DTA could be a very helpful approach in developing soil survey and soil salinity maps in more objective, effective, less-expensive and quicker ways based on field data.

Predictability of the Indian Ocean Dipole in the coupled models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Huafeng; Tang, Youmin; Chen, Dake; Lian, Tao

2017-03-01

In this study, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) predictability, measured by the Indian Dipole Mode Index (DMI), is comprehensively examined at the seasonal time scale, including its actual prediction skill and potential predictability, using the ENSEMBLES multiple model ensembles and the recently developed information-based theoretical framework of predictability. It was found that all model predictions have useful skill, which is normally defined by the anomaly correlation coefficient larger than 0.5, only at around 2-3 month leads. This is mainly because there are more false alarms in predictions as leading time increases. The DMI predictability has significant seasonal variation, and the predictions whose target seasons are boreal summer (JJA) and autumn (SON) are more reliable than that for other seasons. All of models fail to predict the IOD onset before May and suffer from the winter (DJF) predictability barrier. The potential predictability study indicates that, with the model development and initialization improvement, the prediction of IOD onset is likely to be improved but the winter barrier cannot be overcome. The IOD predictability also has decadal variation, with a high skill during the 1960s and the early 1990s, and a low skill during the early 1970s and early 1980s, which is very consistent with the potential predictability. The main factors controlling the IOD predictability, including its seasonal and decadal variations, are also analyzed in this study.

Organic-rich shale lithofacies geophysical prediction: A case study in the fifth organic-matter-rich interval of Paleogene Hetaoyuan Formation, Biyang Depression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fei, S.; Xinong, X.

2017-12-01

The fifth organic-matter-rich interval (ORI 5) in the He-third Member of the Paleogene Hetaoyuan Formation is believed to be the main exploration target for shale oil in Biyang Depression, eastern China. An important part of successful explorating and producing shale oil is to identify and predict organic-rich shale lithofacies with different reservoir capacities and rock geomechanical properties, which are related to organic matter content and mineral components. In this study, shale lithofacies are defined by core analysis data, well-logging and seismic data, and the spatial-temporal distribution of various lithologies are predicted qualitatively by seismic attribute technology and quantitatively by geostatistical inversion analysis, and the prediction results are confirmed by the logging data and geological background. ORI 5 is present in lacustrine expanding system tract and can be further divided into four parasequence sets based on the analysis of conventional logs, TOC content and wavelet transform. Calcareous shale, dolomitic shale, argillaceous shale, silty shale and muddy siltstone are defined within ORI 5, and can be separated and predicted in regional-scale by root mean square amplitude (RMS) analysis and wave impedance. The results indicate that in the early expansion system tract, dolomitic shale and calcareous shale widely developed in the study area, and argillaceous shale, silty shale, and muddy siltstone only developed in periphery of deep depression. With the lake level rising, argillaceous shale and calcareous shale are well developed, and argillaceous shale interbeded with silty shale or muddy siltstone developed in deep or semi-deep lake. In the late expansion system tract, argillaceous shale is widely deposited in the deepest depression, calcareous shale presented band distribution in the east of the depression. Actual test results indicate that these methods are feasible to predict the spatial distribution of shale lithofacies.

Development of 1RM Prediction Equations for Bench Press in Moderately Trained Men.

PubMed

Macht, Jordan W; Abel, Mark G; Mullineaux, David R; Yates, James W

2016-10-01

Macht, JW, Abel, MG, Mullineaux, DR, and Yates, JW. Development of 1RM prediction equations for bench press in moderately trained men. J Strength Cond Res 30(10): 2901-2906, 2016-There are a variety of established 1 repetition maximum (1RM) prediction equations, however, very few prediction equations use anthropometric characteristics exclusively or in part, to estimate 1RM strength. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to develop an original 1RM prediction equation for bench press using anthropometric and performance characteristics in moderately trained male subjects. Sixty male subjects (21.2 ± 2.4 years) completed a 1RM bench press and were randomly assigned a load to complete as many repetitions as possible. In addition, body composition, upper-body anthropometric characteristics, and handgrip strength were assessed. Regression analysis was used to develop a performance-based 1RM prediction equation: 1RM = 1.20 repetition weight + 2.19 repetitions to fatigue - 0.56 biacromial width (cm) + 9.6 (R = 0.99, standard error of estimate [SEE] = 3.5 kg). Regression analysis to develop a nonperformance-based 1RM prediction equation yielded: 1RM (kg) = 0.997 cross-sectional area (CSA) (cm) + 0.401 chest circumference (cm) - 0.385%fat - 0.185 arm length (cm) + 36.7 (R = 0.81, SEE = 13.0 kg). The performance prediction equations developed in this study had high validity coefficients, minimal mean bias, and small limits of agreement. The anthropometric equations had moderately high validity coefficient but larger limits of agreement. The practical applications of this study indicate that the inclusion of anthropometric characteristics and performance variables produce a valid prediction equation for 1RM strength. In addition, the CSA of the arm uses a simple nonperformance method of estimating the lifter's 1RM. This information may be used to predict the starting load for a lifter performing a 1RM prediction protocol or a 1RM testing protocol.

An investigation of the Sutcliffe development theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dushan, J. D.

1973-01-01

Two case studies were used to test the Sutcliffe-Peterssen development theory for both cyclonic and anticyclonic development over the eastern United States. Each term was examined to determine when and where it made a significant contribution to the development process. Results indicate the advection of vorticity at the level of non-divergence exerts the dominant influence for initial cyclone development, and that the thermal terms (advection of thickness, stability, and diabatic influence) become important after development has begun. Anticyclonic development, however, depends primarily on the stability term throughout the life cycle of the anticyclone. Simple procedures for forecasting the development and movement of cyclones and anticyclones are listed. These rules indicate that routine National Meteorological Center analyses may be used to locate areas where the positive advection of 500-mb vorticity, indicative of cyclonic development, coincides with regions of severe weather activity. The development of anticyclones also is predicted easily. Regions of increasing stability, indicating anticyclonic development, may be located by use of National Meteorological Center radar summaries and analyses for 1000-500-mb thickness. A test of these techniques found them to be satisfactory for the case examined.

Client-Friendly Forecasting: Seasonal Runoff Predictions Using Out-of-the-Box Indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weil, P.

2013-12-01

For more than a century, statistical relationships have been recognized between atmospheric conditions at locations separated by thousands of miles, referred to as teleconnections. Some of the recognized teleconnections provide useful information about expected hydrologic conditions, so certain records of atmospheric conditions are quantified and published as hydroclimate indices. Certain hydroclimate indices can serve as strong leading indicators of climate patterns over North America and can be used to make skillful forecasts of seasonal runoff. The methodology described here creates a simple-to-use model that utilizes easily accessed data to make forecasts of April through September runoff months before the runoff season begins. For this project, forecasting models were developed for two snowmelt-driven river systems in Colorado and Wyoming. In addition to the global hydroclimate indices, the methodology uses several local hydrologic variables including the previous year's drought severity, headwater snow water equivalent and the reservoir contents for the major reservoirs in each basin. To improve the skill of the forecasts, logistic regression is used to develop a model that provides the likelihood that a year will fall into the upper, middle or lower tercile of historical flows. Categorical forecasting has two major advantages over modeling of specific flow amounts: (1) with less prediction outcomes models tend to have better predictive skill and (2) categorical models are very useful to clients and agencies with specific flow thresholds that dictate major changes in water resources management. The resulting methodology and functional forecasting model product is highly portable, applicable to many major river systems and easily explained to a non-technical audience.

Durability predictions of adhesively bonded composite structures using accelerated characterization methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brinson, H. F.

1985-01-01

The utilization of adhesive bonding for composite structures is briefly assessed. The need for a method to determine damage initiation and propagation for such joints is outlined. Methods currently in use to analyze both adhesive joints and fiber reinforced plastics is mentioned and it is indicated that all methods require the input of the mechanical properties of the polymeric adhesive and composite matrix material. The mechanical properties of polymers are indicated to be viscoelastic and sensitive to environmental effects. A method to analytically characterize environmentally dependent linear and nonlinear viscoelastic properties is given. It is indicated that the methodology can be used to extrapolate short term data to long term design lifetimes. That is, the method can be used for long term durability predictions. Experimental results for near adhesive resins, polymers used as composite matrices and unidirectional composite laminates is given. The data is fitted well with the analytical durability methodology. Finally, suggestions are outlined for the development of an analytical methodology for the durability predictions of adhesively bonded composite structures.

Stata Modules for Calculating Novel Predictive Performance Indices for Logistic Models.

PubMed

Barkhordari, Mahnaz; Padyab, Mojgan; Hadaegh, Farzad; Azizi, Fereidoun; Bozorgmanesh, Mohammadreza

2016-01-01

Prediction is a fundamental part of prevention of cardiovascular diseases (CVD). The development of prediction algorithms based on the multivariate regression models loomed several decades ago. Parallel with predictive models development, biomarker researches emerged in an impressively great scale. The key question is how best to assess and quantify the improvement in risk prediction offered by new biomarkers or more basically how to assess the performance of a risk prediction model. Discrimination, calibration, and added predictive value have been recently suggested to be used while comparing the predictive performances of the predictive models' with and without novel biomarkers. Lack of user-friendly statistical software has restricted implementation of novel model assessment methods while examining novel biomarkers. We intended, thus, to develop a user-friendly software that could be used by researchers with few programming skills. We have written a Stata command that is intended to help researchers obtain cut point-free and cut point-based net reclassification improvement index and (NRI) and relative and absolute Integrated discriminatory improvement index (IDI) for logistic-based regression analyses.We applied the commands to a real data on women participating the Tehran lipid and glucose study (TLGS) to examine if information of a family history of premature CVD, waist circumference, and fasting plasma glucose can improve predictive performance of the Framingham's "general CVD risk" algorithm. The command is addpred for logistic regression models. The Stata package provided herein can encourage the use of novel methods in examining predictive capacity of ever-emerging plethora of novel biomarkers.

Towards good practice for health statistics: lessons from the Millennium Development Goal health indicators.

PubMed

Murray, Christopher J L

2007-03-10

Health statistics are at the centre of an increasing number of worldwide health controversies. Several factors are sharpening the tension between the supply and demand for high quality health information, and the health-related Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) provide a high-profile example. With thousands of indicators recommended but few measured well, the worldwide health community needs to focus its efforts on improving measurement of a small set of priority areas. Priority indicators should be selected on the basis of public-health significance and several dimensions of measurability. Health statistics can be divided into three types: crude, corrected, and predicted. Health statistics are necessary inputs to planning and strategic decision making, programme implementation, monitoring progress towards targets, and assessment of what works and what does not. Crude statistics that are biased have no role in any of these steps; corrected statistics are preferred. For strategic decision making, when corrected statistics are unavailable, predicted statistics can play an important part. For monitoring progress towards agreed targets and assessment of what works and what does not, however, predicted statistics should not be used. Perhaps the most effective method to decrease controversy over health statistics and to encourage better primary data collection and the development of better analytical methods is a strong commitment to provision of an explicit data audit trail. This initiative would make available the primary data, all post-data collection adjustments, models including covariates used for farcasting and forecasting, and necessary documentation to the public.

Predicting rates of inbreeding in populations undergoing selection.

PubMed Central

Woolliams, J A; Bijma, P

2000-01-01

Tractable forms of predicting rates of inbreeding (DeltaF) in selected populations with general indices, nonrandom mating, and overlapping generations were developed, with the principal results assuming a period of equilibrium in the selection process. An existing theorem concerning the relationship between squared long-term genetic contributions and rates of inbreeding was extended to nonrandom mating and to overlapping generations. DeltaF was shown to be approximately (1)/(4)(1 - omega) times the expected sum of squared lifetime contributions, where omega is the deviation from Hardy-Weinberg proportions. This relationship cannot be used for prediction since it is based upon observed quantities. Therefore, the relationship was further developed to express DeltaF in terms of expected long-term contributions that are conditional on a set of selective advantages that relate the selection processes in two consecutive generations and are predictable quantities. With random mating, if selected family sizes are assumed to be independent Poisson variables then the expected long-term contribution could be substituted for the observed, providing (1)/(4) (since omega = 0) was increased to (1)/(2). Established theory was used to provide a correction term to account for deviations from the Poisson assumptions. The equations were successfully applied, using simple linear models, to the problem of predicting DeltaF with sib indices in discrete generations since previously published solutions had proved complex. PMID:10747074

Thermal Stabilization of Dihydrofolate Reductase Using Monte Carlo Unfolding Simulations and Its Functional Consequences

PubMed Central

Whitney, Anna; Shakhnovich, Eugene I.

2015-01-01

Design of proteins with desired thermal properties is important for scientific and biotechnological applications. Here we developed a theoretical approach to predict the effect of mutations on protein stability from non-equilibrium unfolding simulations. We establish a relative measure based on apparent simulated melting temperatures that is independent of simulation length and, under certain assumptions, proportional to equilibrium stability, and we justify this theoretical development with extensive simulations and experimental data. Using our new method based on all-atom Monte-Carlo unfolding simulations, we carried out a saturating mutagenesis of Dihydrofolate Reductase (DHFR), a key target of antibiotics and chemotherapeutic drugs. The method predicted more than 500 stabilizing mutations, several of which were selected for detailed computational and experimental analysis. We find a highly significant correlation of r = 0.65–0.68 between predicted and experimentally determined melting temperatures and unfolding denaturant concentrations for WT DHFR and 42 mutants. The correlation between energy of the native state and experimental denaturation temperature was much weaker, indicating the important role of entropy in protein stability. The most stabilizing point mutation was D27F, which is located in the active site of the protein, rendering it inactive. However for the rest of mutations outside of the active site we observed a weak yet statistically significant positive correlation between thermal stability and catalytic activity indicating the lack of a stability-activity tradeoff for DHFR. By combining stabilizing mutations predicted by our method, we created a highly stable catalytically active E. coli DHFR mutant with measured denaturation temperature 7.2°C higher than WT. Prediction results for DHFR and several other proteins indicate that computational approaches based on unfolding simulations are useful as a general technique to discover stabilizing mutations. PMID:25905910

Prediction of high incidence of dengue in the Philippines.

PubMed

Buczak, Anna L; Baugher, Benjamin; Babin, Steven M; Ramac-Thomas, Liane C; Guven, Erhan; Elbert, Yevgeniy; Koshute, Phillip T; Velasco, John Mark S; Roque, Vito G; Tayag, Enrique A; Yoon, In-Kyu; Lewis, Sheri H

2014-04-01

Accurate prediction of dengue incidence levels weeks in advance of an outbreak may reduce the morbidity and mortality associated with this neglected disease. Therefore, models were developed to predict high and low dengue incidence in order to provide timely forewarnings in the Philippines. Model inputs were chosen based on studies indicating variables that may impact dengue incidence. The method first uses Fuzzy Association Rule Mining techniques to extract association rules from these historical epidemiological, environmental, and socio-economic data, as well as climate data indicating future weather patterns. Selection criteria were used to choose a subset of these rules for a classifier, thereby generating a Prediction Model. The models predicted high or low incidence of dengue in a Philippines province four weeks in advance. The threshold between high and low was determined relative to historical incidence data. Model accuracy is described by Positive Predictive Value (PPV), Negative Predictive Value (NPV), Sensitivity, and Specificity computed on test data not previously used to develop the model. Selecting a model using the F0.5 measure, which gives PPV more importance than Sensitivity, gave these results: PPV = 0.780, NPV = 0.938, Sensitivity = 0.547, Specificity = 0.978. Using the F3 measure, which gives Sensitivity more importance than PPV, the selected model had PPV = 0.778, NPV = 0.948, Sensitivity = 0.627, Specificity = 0.974. The decision as to which model has greater utility depends on how the predictions will be used in a particular situation. This method builds prediction models for future dengue incidence in the Philippines and is capable of being modified for use in different situations; for diseases other than dengue; and for regions beyond the Philippines. The Philippines dengue prediction models predicted high or low incidence of dengue four weeks in advance of an outbreak with high accuracy, as measured by PPV, NPV, Sensitivity, and Specificity.

Prediction of High Incidence of Dengue in the Philippines

PubMed Central

Buczak, Anna L.; Baugher, Benjamin; Babin, Steven M.; Ramac-Thomas, Liane C.; Guven, Erhan; Elbert, Yevgeniy; Koshute, Phillip T.; Velasco, John Mark S.; Roque, Vito G.; Tayag, Enrique A.; Yoon, In-Kyu; Lewis, Sheri H.

2014-01-01

Background Accurate prediction of dengue incidence levels weeks in advance of an outbreak may reduce the morbidity and mortality associated with this neglected disease. Therefore, models were developed to predict high and low dengue incidence in order to provide timely forewarnings in the Philippines. Methods Model inputs were chosen based on studies indicating variables that may impact dengue incidence. The method first uses Fuzzy Association Rule Mining techniques to extract association rules from these historical epidemiological, environmental, and socio-economic data, as well as climate data indicating future weather patterns. Selection criteria were used to choose a subset of these rules for a classifier, thereby generating a Prediction Model. The models predicted high or low incidence of dengue in a Philippines province four weeks in advance. The threshold between high and low was determined relative to historical incidence data. Principal Findings Model accuracy is described by Positive Predictive Value (PPV), Negative Predictive Value (NPV), Sensitivity, and Specificity computed on test data not previously used to develop the model. Selecting a model using the F0.5 measure, which gives PPV more importance than Sensitivity, gave these results: PPV = 0.780, NPV = 0.938, Sensitivity = 0.547, Specificity = 0.978. Using the F3 measure, which gives Sensitivity more importance than PPV, the selected model had PPV = 0.778, NPV = 0.948, Sensitivity = 0.627, Specificity = 0.974. The decision as to which model has greater utility depends on how the predictions will be used in a particular situation. Conclusions This method builds prediction models for future dengue incidence in the Philippines and is capable of being modified for use in different situations; for diseases other than dengue; and for regions beyond the Philippines. The Philippines dengue prediction models predicted high or low incidence of dengue four weeks in advance of an outbreak with high accuracy, as measured by PPV, NPV, Sensitivity, and Specificity. PMID:24722434

Selected Streamflow Statistics and Regression Equations for Predicting Statistics at Stream Locations in Monroe County, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, Ronald E.; Hoffman, Scott A.

2006-01-01

A suite of 28 streamflow statistics, ranging from extreme low to high flows, was computed for 17 continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations and predicted for 20 partial-record stations in Monroe County and contiguous counties in north-eastern Pennsylvania. The predicted statistics for the partial-record stations were based on regression analyses relating inter-mittent flow measurements made at the partial-record stations indexed to concurrent daily mean flows at continuous-record stations during base-flow conditions. The same statistics also were predicted for 134 ungaged stream locations in Monroe County on the basis of regression analyses relating the statistics to GIS-determined basin characteristics for the continuous-record station drainage areas. The prediction methodology for developing the regression equations used to estimate statistics was developed for estimating low-flow frequencies. This study and a companion study found that the methodology also has application potential for predicting intermediate- and high-flow statistics. The statistics included mean monthly flows, mean annual flow, 7-day low flows for three recurrence intervals, nine flow durations, mean annual base flow, and annual mean base flows for two recurrence intervals. Low standard errors of prediction and high coefficients of determination (R2) indicated good results in using the regression equations to predict the statistics. Regression equations for the larger flow statistics tended to have lower standard errors of prediction and higher coefficients of determination (R2) than equations for the smaller flow statistics. The report discusses the methodologies used in determining the statistics and the limitations of the statistics and the equations used to predict the statistics. Caution is indicated in using the predicted statistics for small drainage area situations. Study results constitute input needed by water-resource managers in Monroe County for planning purposes and evaluation of water-resources availability.

Developing a NIR multispectral imaging for prediction and visualization of peanut protein content using variable selection algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Jun-Hu; Jin, Huali; Liu, Zhiwei

2018-01-01

The feasibility of developing a multispectral imaging method using important wavelengths from hyperspectral images selected by genetic algorithm (GA), successive projection algorithm (SPA) and regression coefficient (RC) methods for modeling and predicting protein content in peanut kernel was investigated for the first time. Partial least squares regression (PLSR) calibration model was established between the spectral data from the selected optimal wavelengths and the reference measured protein content ranged from 23.46% to 28.43%. The RC-PLSR model established using eight key wavelengths (1153, 1567, 1972, 2143, 2288, 2339, 2389 and 2446 nm) showed the best predictive results with the coefficient of determination of prediction (R2P) of 0.901, and root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) of 0.108 and residual predictive deviation (RPD) of 2.32. Based on the obtained best model and image processing algorithms, the distribution maps of protein content were generated. The overall results of this study indicated that developing a rapid and online multispectral imaging system using the feature wavelengths and PLSR analysis is potential and feasible for determination of the protein content in peanut kernels.

Predictive occurrence models for coastal wetland plant communities: delineating hydrologic response surfaces with multinomial logistic regression

USGS Publications Warehouse

Snedden, Gregg A.; Steyer, Gregory D.

2013-01-01

Understanding plant community zonation along estuarine stress gradients is critical for effective conservation and restoration of coastal wetland ecosystems. We related the presence of plant community types to estuarine hydrology at 173 sites across coastal Louisiana. Percent relative cover by species was assessed at each site near the end of the growing season in 2008, and hourly water level and salinity were recorded at each site Oct 2007–Sep 2008. Nine plant community types were delineated with k-means clustering, and indicator species were identified for each of the community types with indicator species analysis. An inverse relation between salinity and species diversity was observed. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) effectively segregated the sites across ordination space by community type, and indicated that salinity and tidal amplitude were both important drivers of vegetation composition. Multinomial logistic regression (MLR) and Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) were used to predict the probability of occurrence of the nine vegetation communities as a function of salinity and tidal amplitude, and probability surfaces obtained from the MLR model corroborated the CCA results. The weighted kappa statistic, calculated from the confusion matrix of predicted versus actual community types, was 0.7 and indicated good agreement between observed community types and model predictions. Our results suggest that models based on a few key hydrologic variables can be valuable tools for predicting vegetation community development when restoring and managing coastal wetlands.

Summer precipitation prediction in the source region of the Yellow River using climate indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, F.

2016-12-01

The source region of the Yellow River contributes about 35% of the total water yield in the Yellow River basin playing an important role in meeting downstream water resources requirements. The summer precipitation from June to September in the source region of the Yellow River accounts for about 70% of the annual total, and its decrease would cause further water shortage problems. Consequently, the objectives of this study are to improve the understanding of the linkages between the precipitation in the source region of the Yellow River and global teleconnection patterns, and to predict the summer precipitation based on revealed teleconnections. Spatial variability of precipitation was investigated based on three homogeneous sub-regions. Principal component analysis and singular value decomposition were used to find significant relations between the precipitation in the source region of the Yellow River and global teleconnection patterns using climate indices. A back-propagation neural network was developed to predict the summer precipitation using significantly correlated climate indices. It was found that precipitation in the study area is positively related to North Atlantic Oscillation, West Pacific Pattern and El Nino Southern Oscillation, and inversely related to Polar Eurasian pattern. Summer precipitation was overall well predicted using these significantly correlated climate indices, and the Pearson correlation coefficient between predicted and observed summer precipitation was in general larger than 0.6. The results are useful for integrated water resources management in the Yellow River basin.

Improving predictions of protein-protein interfaces by combining amino acid-specific classifiers based on structural and physicochemical descriptors with their weighted neighbor averages.

PubMed

de Moraes, Fábio R; Neshich, Izabella A P; Mazoni, Ivan; Yano, Inácio H; Pereira, José G C; Salim, José A; Jardine, José G; Neshich, Goran

2014-01-01

Protein-protein interactions are involved in nearly all regulatory processes in the cell and are considered one of the most important issues in molecular biology and pharmaceutical sciences but are still not fully understood. Structural and computational biology contributed greatly to the elucidation of the mechanism of protein interactions. In this paper, we present a collection of the physicochemical and structural characteristics that distinguish interface-forming residues (IFR) from free surface residues (FSR). We formulated a linear discriminative analysis (LDA) classifier to assess whether chosen descriptors from the BlueStar STING database (http://www.cbi.cnptia.embrapa.br/SMS/) are suitable for such a task. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis indicates that the particular physicochemical and structural descriptors used for building the linear classifier perform much better than a random classifier and in fact, successfully outperform some of the previously published procedures, whose performance indicators were recently compared by other research groups. The results presented here show that the selected set of descriptors can be utilized to predict IFRs, even when homologue proteins are missing (particularly important for orphan proteins where no homologue is available for comparative analysis/indication) or, when certain conformational changes accompany interface formation. The development of amino acid type specific classifiers is shown to increase IFR classification performance. Also, we found that the addition of an amino acid conservation attribute did not improve the classification prediction. This result indicates that the increase in predictive power associated with amino acid conservation is exhausted by adequate use of an extensive list of independent physicochemical and structural parameters that, by themselves, fully describe the nano-environment at protein-protein interfaces. The IFR classifier developed in this study is now integrated into the BlueStar STING suite of programs. Consequently, the prediction of protein-protein interfaces for all proteins available in the PDB is possible through STING_interfaces module, accessible at the following website: (http://www.cbi.cnptia.embrapa.br/SMS/predictions/index.html).

Improving Predictions of Protein-Protein Interfaces by Combining Amino Acid-Specific Classifiers Based on Structural and Physicochemical Descriptors with Their Weighted Neighbor Averages

PubMed Central

de Moraes, Fábio R.; Neshich, Izabella A. P.; Mazoni, Ivan; Yano, Inácio H.; Pereira, José G. C.; Salim, José A.; Jardine, José G.; Neshich, Goran

2014-01-01

Protein-protein interactions are involved in nearly all regulatory processes in the cell and are considered one of the most important issues in molecular biology and pharmaceutical sciences but are still not fully understood. Structural and computational biology contributed greatly to the elucidation of the mechanism of protein interactions. In this paper, we present a collection of the physicochemical and structural characteristics that distinguish interface-forming residues (IFR) from free surface residues (FSR). We formulated a linear discriminative analysis (LDA) classifier to assess whether chosen descriptors from the BlueStar STING database (http://www.cbi.cnptia.embrapa.br/SMS/) are suitable for such a task. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis indicates that the particular physicochemical and structural descriptors used for building the linear classifier perform much better than a random classifier and in fact, successfully outperform some of the previously published procedures, whose performance indicators were recently compared by other research groups. The results presented here show that the selected set of descriptors can be utilized to predict IFRs, even when homologue proteins are missing (particularly important for orphan proteins where no homologue is available for comparative analysis/indication) or, when certain conformational changes accompany interface formation. The development of amino acid type specific classifiers is shown to increase IFR classification performance. Also, we found that the addition of an amino acid conservation attribute did not improve the classification prediction. This result indicates that the increase in predictive power associated with amino acid conservation is exhausted by adequate use of an extensive list of independent physicochemical and structural parameters that, by themselves, fully describe the nano-environment at protein-protein interfaces. The IFR classifier developed in this study is now integrated into the BlueStar STING suite of programs. Consequently, the prediction of protein-protein interfaces for all proteins available in the PDB is possible through STING_interfaces module, accessible at the following website: (http://www.cbi.cnptia.embrapa.br/SMS/predictions/index.html). PMID:24489849

Striatal dopamine transporter binding for predicting the development of delayed neuropsychological sequelae in suicide attempters by carbon monoxide poisoning: A SPECT study.

PubMed

Yang, Kai-Chun; Ku, Hsiao-Lun; Wu, Chia-Liang; Wang, Shyh-Jen; Yang, Chen-Chang; Deng, Jou-Fang; Lee, Ming-Been; Chou, Yuan-Hwa

2011-12-30

Carbon monoxide poisoning (COP) after charcoal burning results in delayed neuropsychological sequelae (DNS), which show clinical resemblance to Parkinson's disease, without adequate predictors at present. This study examined the role of dopamine transporter (DAT) binding for the prediction of DNS. Twenty-seven suicide attempters with COP were recruited. Seven of them developed DNS, while the remainder did not. The striatal DAT binding was measured by single photon emission computed tomography with (99m)Tc-TRODAT. The specific uptake ratio was derived based on a ratio equilibrium model. Using a logistic regression model, multiple clinical variables were examined as potential predictors for DNS. COP patients with DNS had a lower binding on left striatal DAT binding than patients without DNS. Logistic regression analysis showed that a combination of initial loss of consciousness and lower left striatal DAT binding predicted the development of DNS. Our data indicate that the left striatal DAT binding could help to predict the development of DNS. This finding not only demonstrates the feasibility of brain imaging techniques for predicting the development of DNS but will also help clinicians to improve the quality of care for COP patients. 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Key Questions in Building Defect Prediction Models in Practice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramler, Rudolf; Wolfmaier, Klaus; Stauder, Erwin; Kossak, Felix; Natschläger, Thomas

The information about which modules of a future version of a software system are defect-prone is a valuable planning aid for quality managers and testers. Defect prediction promises to indicate these defect-prone modules. However, constructing effective defect prediction models in an industrial setting involves a number of key questions. In this paper we discuss ten key questions identified in context of establishing defect prediction in a large software development project. Seven consecutive versions of the software system have been used to construct and validate defect prediction models for system test planning. Furthermore, the paper presents initial empirical results from the studied project and, by this means, contributes answers to the identified questions.

Adolescent dosing and labeling since the Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act of 2007.

PubMed

Momper, Jeremiah D; Mulugeta, Yeruk; Green, Dionna J; Karesh, Alyson; Krudys, Kevin M; Sachs, Hari C; Yao, Lynn P; Burckart, Gilbert J

2013-10-01

During pediatric drug development, dedicated pharmacokinetic studies are generally performed in all relevant age groups to support dose selection for subsequent efficacy trials. To our knowledge, no previous assessments regarding the need for an intensive pharmacokinetic study in adolescents have been performed. To compare U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved adult and adolescent drug dosing and to assess the utility of allometric scaling for the prediction of drug clearance in the adolescent population. Adult and adolescent dosing and drug clearance data were obtained from FDA-approved drug labels and publicly available databases containing reviews of pediatric trials submitted to the FDA. Dosing information was compared for products with concordant indications for adolescent and adult patients. Adolescent drug clearance was predicted from adult pharmacokinetic data by using allometric scaling and compared with observed values. Adolescent and adult dosing information and drug clearance. There were 126 unique products with pediatric studies submitted to the FDA since the FDA Amendments Act of 2007, of which 92 had at least 1 adolescent indication concordant with an adult indication. Of these 92 products, 87 (94.5%) have equivalent dosing for adults and adolescent patients. For 18 of these 92 products, a minimum weight or body surface area threshold is recommended for adolescents to receive adult dosing. Allometric scaling predicted adolescent drug clearance with an overall mean absolute percentage error of 17.0%. Approved adult and adolescent drug dosing is equivalent for 94.5% of products with an adolescent indication studied since the FDA Amendments Act of 2007. Allometric scaling may be a useful tool to avoid unnecessary dedicated pharmacokinetic studies in the adolescent population during pediatric drug development, although each development program in adolescents requires a full discussion of drug dosing with the FDA.

Incorporation of in silico biodegradability screening in early drug development--a feasible approach?

PubMed

Steger-Hartmann, Thomas; Länge, Reinhard; Heuck, Klaus

2011-05-01

The concentration of a pharmaceutical found in the environment is determined by the amount used by the patient, the excretion and metabolism pattern, and eventually by its persistence. Biological degradation or persistence of a pharmaceutical is experimentally tested rather late in the development of a pharmaceutical, often shortly before submission of the dossier to regulatory authorities. To investigate whether the aspect of persistence of a compound could be assessed early during drug development, we investigated whether biodegradation of pharmaceuticals could be predicted with the help of in silico tools. To assess the value of in silico prediction, we collected results for the OECD 301 degradation test ("ready biodegradability") of 42 drugs or drug synthesis intermediates and compared them to the prediction of the in silico tool BIOWIN. Of these compounds, 38 were predictable with BIOWIN, which is a module of the Estimation Programs Interface (EPI) Suite™ provided by the US EPA. The program failed to predict the two drugs which proved to be readily biodegradable in the degradation tests. On the other hand, BIOWIN predicted two compounds to be readily biodegradable which, however, proved to be persistent in the test setting. The comparison of experimental data with the predicted one resulted in a specificity of 94% and a sensitivity of 0%. The results of this study do not indicate that application of the biodegradation prediction tool BIOWIN is a feasible approach to assess the ready biodegradability during early drug development.

Prediction of Early Childhood Caries via Spatial-Temporal Variations of Oral Microbiota.

PubMed

Teng, Fei; Yang, Fang; Huang, Shi; Bo, Cunpei; Xu, Zhenjiang Zech; Amir, Amnon; Knight, Rob; Ling, Junqi; Xu, Jian

2015-09-09

Microbiota-based prediction of chronic infections is promising yet not well established. Early childhood caries (ECC) is the most common infection in children. Here we simultaneously tracked microbiota development at plaque and saliva in 50 4-year-old preschoolers for 2 years; children either stayed healthy, transitioned into cariogenesis, or experienced caries exacerbation. Caries onset delayed microbiota development, which is otherwise correlated with aging in healthy children. Both plaque and saliva microbiota are more correlated with changes in ECC severity (dmfs) during onset than progression. By distinguishing between aging- and disease-associated taxa and exploiting the distinct microbiota dynamics between onset and progression, we developed a model, Microbial Indicators of Caries, to diagnose ECC from healthy samples with 70% accuracy and predict, with 81% accuracy, future ECC onsets for samples clinically perceived as healthy. Thus, caries onset in apparently healthy teeth can be predicted using microbiota, when appropriately de-trended for age. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Anthropometric Indices Predict the Development of Hypertension in Normotensive and Pre-Hypertensive Middle-Aged Women in Tianjin, China: A Prospective Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Wang, Qing; Wang, Zhuoqun; Yao, Wei; Wu, Xianming; Huang, Jingjing; Huang, Lei

2018-01-01

Background The aims of this study were to investigate the relationship between optimal anthropometric indices and their cut-off values and the incidence of hypertension in a cohort of middle-aged women in China. Material/Methods A cohort of 812 women, aged between 40–70 years were recruited between May 2011 and June 2013. An ideal baseline blood pressure was defined as <120/80 mmHg; pre-hypertension was 120–139/80–89 mmHg; hypertension was ≥140/≥90 mmHg. Anthropometric measurements included waist circumference (WC), body mass index (BMI), waist-hip ratio (WHR), and waist-height ratio (WHtR). The cohort was divided into an ideal blood pressure group (Group 1) and a pre-hypertensive group (Group 2). Two-year follow-up blood pressure measurements were performed. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis determined the optimal anthropometric indices and cut-off values for developing hypertension. Results At two-year follow-up, hypertension developed in 9.0% (n=31) in Group 1 and 32.3% (n=121) in Group 2. Logistic regression analysis showed that in both groups, women in the highest quartile for WC, BMI, WHR, and WHtR had a significantly increased risk of developing hypertension compared with the lowest quartile (P<0.05). ROC curve area under the curve (AUC) for these anthropometric indices were greater in Group 1, and for WC in Groups 1 and 2, with the optimal cut-off values greater in Group 1. Conclusions In a cohort of middle-aged women in China, anthropometric indices of obesity were predictive of the development of hypertension during a two-year follow-up period. PMID:29601569

[Development and Application of a Performance Prediction Model for Home Care Nursing Based on a Balanced Scorecard using the Bayesian Belief Network].

PubMed

Noh, Wonjung; Seomun, Gyeongae

2015-06-01

This study was conducted to develop key performance indicators (KPIs) for home care nursing (HCN) based on a balanced scorecard, and to construct a performance prediction model of strategic objectives using the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN). This methodological study included four steps: establishment of KPIs, performance prediction modeling, development of a performance prediction model using BBN, and simulation of a suggested nursing management strategy. An HCN expert group and a staff group participated. The content validity index was analyzed using STATA 13.0, and BBN was analyzed using HUGIN 8.0. We generated a list of KPIs composed of 4 perspectives, 10 strategic objectives, and 31 KPIs. In the validity test of the performance prediction model, the factor with the greatest variance for increasing profit was maximum cost reduction of HCN services. The factor with the smallest variance for increasing profit was a minimum image improvement for HCN. During sensitivity analysis, the probability of the expert group did not affect the sensitivity. Furthermore, simulation of a 10% image improvement predicted the most effective way to increase profit. KPIs of HCN can estimate financial and non-financial performance. The performance prediction model for HCN will be useful to improve performance.

Predictivity of dog co-culture model, primary human hepatocytes and HepG2 cells for the detection of hepatotoxic drugs in humans

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Atienzar, Franck A., E-mail: franck.atienzar@ucb.com; Novik, Eric I.; Gerets, Helga H.

Drug Induced Liver Injury (DILI) is a major cause of attrition during early and late stage drug development. Consequently, there is a need to develop better in vitro primary hepatocyte models from different species for predicting hepatotoxicity in both animals and humans early in drug development. Dog is often chosen as the non-rodent species for toxicology studies. Unfortunately, dog in vitro models allowing long term cultures are not available. The objective of the present manuscript is to describe the development of a co-culture dog model for predicting hepatotoxic drugs in humans and to compare the predictivity of the canine modelmore » along with primary human hepatocytes and HepG2 cells. After rigorous optimization, the dog co-culture model displayed metabolic capacities that were maintained up to 2 weeks which indicates that such model could be also used for long term metabolism studies. Most of the human hepatotoxic drugs were detected with a sensitivity of approximately 80% (n = 40) for the three cellular models. Nevertheless, the specificity was low approximately 40% for the HepG2 cells and hepatocytes compared to 72.7% for the canine model (n = 11). Furthermore, the dog co-culture model showed a higher superiority for the classification of 5 pairs of close structural analogs with different DILI concerns in comparison to both human cellular models. Finally, the reproducibility of the canine system was also satisfactory with a coefficient of correlation of 75.2% (n = 14). Overall, the present manuscript indicates that the dog co-culture model may represent a relevant tool to perform chronic hepatotoxicity and metabolism studies. - Highlights: • Importance of species differences in drug development. • Relevance of dog co-culture model for metabolism and toxicology studies. • Hepatotoxicity: higher predictivity of dog co-culture vs HepG2 and human hepatocytes.« less

Using models to manage systems subject to sustainability indicators

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hill, M.C.

2006-01-01

Mathematical and numerical models can provide insight into sustainability indicators using relevant simulated quantities, which are referred to here as predictions. To be useful, many concerns need to be considered. Four are discussed here: (a) mathematical and numerical accuracy of the model; (b) the accuracy of the data used in model development, (c) the information observations provide to aspects of the model important to predictions of interest as measured using sensitivity analysis; and (d) the existence of plausible alternative models for a given system. The four issues are illustrated using examples from conservative and transport modelling, and using conceptual arguments. Results suggest that ignoring these issues can produce misleading conclusions.

Self-Concept Predicts Academic Achievement Across Levels of the Achievement Distribution: Domain Specificity for Math and Reading.

PubMed

Susperreguy, Maria Ines; Davis-Kean, Pamela E; Duckworth, Kathryn; Chen, Meichu

2017-09-18

This study examines whether self-concept of ability in math and reading predicts later math and reading attainment across different levels of achievement. Data from three large-scale longitudinal data sets, the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, National Institute of Child Health and Human Development-Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development, and Panel Study of Income Dynamics-Child Development Supplement, were used to answer this question by employing quantile regression analyses. After controlling for demographic variables, child characteristics, and early ability, the findings indicate that self-concept of ability in math and reading predicts later achievement in each respective domain across all quantile levels of achievement. These results were replicated across the three data sets representing different populations and provide robust evidence for the role of self-concept of ability in understanding achievement from early childhood to adolescence across the spectrum of performance (low to high). © 2017 The Authors. Child Development © 2017 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

Predicting East African spring droughts using Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funk, C.; Hoell, A.; Shukla, S.; Bladé, I.; Liebmann, B.; Roberts, J. B.; Robertson, F. R.; Husak, G.

2014-03-01

In southern Ethiopia, Eastern Kenya, and southern Somalia, poor boreal spring rains in 1999, 2000, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2011 contributed to severe food insecurity and high levels of malnutrition. Predicting rainfall deficits in this region on seasonal and decadal time frames can help decision makers implement disaster risk reduction measures while guiding climate-smart adaptation and agricultural development. Building on recent research that links more frequent droughts in that region to a stronger Walker Circulation, warming in the Indo-Pacific warm pool, and an increased western Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, we show that the two dominant modes of East African boreal spring rainfall variability are tied, respectively, to western-central Pacific and central Indian Ocean SST. Variations in these rainfall modes can be predicted using two previously defined SST indices - the West Pacific Gradient (WPG) and Central Indian Ocean index (CIO), with the WPG and CIO being used, respectively, to predict the first and second rainfall modes. These simple indices can be used in concert with more sophisticated coupled modeling systems and land surface data assimilations to help inform early warning and guide climate outlooks.

Groundwater-level prediction using multiple linear regression and artificial neural network techniques: a comparative assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahoo, Sasmita; Jha, Madan K.

2013-12-01

The potential of multiple linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN) techniques in predicting transient water levels over a groundwater basin were compared. MLR and ANN modeling was carried out at 17 sites in Japan, considering all significant inputs: rainfall, ambient temperature, river stage, 11 seasonal dummy variables, and influential lags of rainfall, ambient temperature, river stage and groundwater level. Seventeen site-specific ANN models were developed, using multi-layer feed-forward neural networks trained with Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation algorithms. The performance of the models was evaluated using statistical and graphical indicators. Comparison of the goodness-of-fit statistics of the MLR models with those of the ANN models indicated that there is better agreement between the ANN-predicted groundwater levels and the observed groundwater levels at all the sites, compared to the MLR. This finding was supported by the graphical indicators and the residual analysis. Thus, it is concluded that the ANN technique is superior to the MLR technique in predicting spatio-temporal distribution of groundwater levels in a basin. However, considering the practical advantages of the MLR technique, it is recommended as an alternative and cost-effective groundwater modeling tool.

Evaluation of average daily gain prediction by level one of the 1996 National Research Council beef model and development of net energy adjusters.

PubMed

Block, H C; Klopfenstein, T J; Erickson, G E

2006-04-01

Two data sets were developed to evaluate and refine feed energy predictions with the beef National Research Council (NRC, 1996) model level 1. The first data set included pen means of group-fed cattle from 31 growing trials (201 observations) and 17 finishing trials (154 observations) representing over 7,700 animals fed outside in dirt lots. The second data set consisted of 15 studies with individually fed cattle (916 observations) fed in a barn. In each data set, actual ADG was compared with ADG predicted with the NRC model level 1, assuming thermoneutral environmental conditions. Next, the observed ADG (kg), TDN intake (kg/d), and TDN concentration (kg/kg of DM) were used to develop equations to adjust the level 1 predicted diet NEm and NEg (diet NE adjusters) to be applied to more accurately predict ADG. In both data sets, the NRC (1996) model level 1 inaccurately predicted ADG (P < 0.001 for slope = 1; intercept = 0 when observed ADG was regressed on predicted ADG). The following nonlinear relationships to adjust NE based on observed ADG, TDN intake, and TDN concentration were all significant (P < 0.001): NE adjuster = 0.7011 x 10(-0.8562 x ADG) + 0.8042, R2 = 0.325, s(y.x) = 0.136 kg; NE adjuster = 4.795 10(-0.3689 x TDN intake) + 0.8233, R2 x = 0.714, s(y.x) = 0.157 kg; and NE adjuster = 357 x 10(-5.449 x TDN concentration) + 0.8138, R2 = 0.754, s(y.x) = 0.127 kg. An NE adjuster < 1 indicates overprediction of ADG. The average NE adjustment required for the pen-fed finishing trials was 0.820, whereas the (P < 0.001) adjustment of 0.906 for individually fed cattle indicates that the pen-fed environment increased NE requirements. The use of these equations should improve ADG prediction by the NRC (1996) model level 1, although the equations reflect limitations of the data from which they were developed and are appropriate only over the range of the developmental data set. There is a need for independent evaluation of the ability of the equations to improve ADG prediction by the NRC (1996) model level 1.

Temperament, Parenting, and Moral Development: Specificity of Behavior and Context.

PubMed

Augustine, Mairin E; Stifter, Cynthia A

2015-05-01

This longitudinal study highlights the role of specific parenting behaviors in specific contexts when predicting moral development in children of varying temperament types. A sample of mother-child dyads took part in a competing demands task involving differing "do" and "don't" contextual demands when the child was 2 years of age. Child temperament was also assessed at this time, yielding inhibited, exuberant, and low-reactive temperament groups. Children's moral behavior was assessed at 5.5 years of age. Models examining the interaction of temperament and mother behaviors in each context indicated that mother's reasoning/explanation and ignoring in the "do" context predicted later moral behavior in inhibited children, whereas redirection and commands in the "don't" context predicted moral behavior in exuberant children.

A density functional theory for colloids with two multiple bonding associating sites.

PubMed

Haghmoradi, Amin; Wang, Le; Chapman, Walter G

2016-06-22

Wertheim's multi-density formalism is extended for patchy colloidal fluids with two multiple bonding patches. The theory is developed as a density functional theory to predict the properties of an associating inhomogeneous fluid. The equation of state developed for this fluid depends on the size of the patch, and includes formation of cyclic, branched and linear clusters of associated species. The theory predicts the density profile and the fractions of colloids in different bonding states versus the distance from one wall as a function of bulk density and temperature. The predictions from our theory are compared with previous results for a confined fluid with four single bonding association sites. Also, comparison between the present theory and Monte Carlo simulation indicates a good agreement.

Prediction of rectal temperature using non-invasive physiologic variable measurements in hair pregnant ewes subjected to natural conditions of heat stress.

PubMed

Vicente-Pérez, Ricardo; Avendaño-Reyes, Leonel; Mejía-Vázquez, Ángel; Álvarez-Valenzuela, F Daniel; Correa-Calderón, Abelardo; Mellado, Miguel; Meza-Herrera, Cesar A; Guerra-Liera, Juan E; Robinson, P H; Macías-Cruz, Ulises

2016-01-01

Rectal temperature (RT) is the foremost physiological variable indicating if an animal is suffering hyperthermia. However, this variable is traditionally measured by invasive methods, which may compromise animal welfare. Models to predict RT have been developed for growing pigs and lactating dairy cows, but not for pregnant heat-stressed ewes. Our aim was to develop a prediction equation for RT using non-invasive physiological variables in pregnant ewes under heat stress. A total of 192 records of respiratory frequency (RF) and hair coat temperature in various body regions (i.e., head, rump, flank, shoulder, and belly) obtained from 24 Katahdin × Pelibuey pregnant multiparous ewes were collected during the last third of gestation (i.e., d 100 to lambing) with a 15 d sampling interval. Hair coat temperatures were taken using infrared thermal imaging technology. Initially, a Pearson correlation analysis examined the relationship among variables, and then multiple linear regression analysis was used to develop the prediction equations. All predictor variables were positively correlated (P<0.01; r=0.59-0.67) with RT. The adjusted equation which best predicted RT (P<0.01; Radj(2)=56.15%; CV=0.65%) included as predictors RF and head and belly temperatures. Comparison of predicted and observed values for RT indicates a suitable agreement (P<0.01) between them with moderate accuracy (Radj(2)=56.15%) when RT was calculated with the adjusted equation. In general, the final equation does not violate any assumption of multiple regression analysis. The RT in heat-stressed pregnant ewes can be predicted with an adequate accuracy using non-invasive physiologic variables, and the final equation was: RT=35.57+0.004 (RF)+0.067 (heat temperature)+0.028 (belly temperature). Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A maximum likelihood convolutional decoder model vs experimental data comparison

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, R. Y.

1979-01-01

This article describes the comparison of a maximum likelihood convolutional decoder (MCD) prediction model and the actual performance of the MCD at the Madrid Deep Space Station. The MCD prediction model is used to develop a subroutine that has been utilized by the Telemetry Analysis Program (TAP) to compute the MCD bit error rate for a given signal-to-noise ratio. The results indicate that that the TAP can predict quite well compared to the experimental measurements. An optimal modulation index also can be found through TAP.

Measuring Socioeconomic Status in Health Research in Developing Countries: Should We Be Focusing on Households, Communities or Both?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fotso, Jean-Christophe; Kuate-Defo, Barthelemy

2005-01-01

Research on the effects of socioeconomic well-being on health is important for policy makers in developing countries, where limited resources make it crucial to use existing health care resources to the best advantage. This paper develops and tests a set of measures of socioeconomic status indicators for predicting health status in developing…

Twelve Month Prevalence of and Risk Factors for Suicide Attempts in the WHO World Mental Health Surveys

PubMed Central

Borges, Guilherme; Nock, Matthew K.; Haro Abad, Josep M.; Hwang, Irving; Sampson, Nancy A.; Alonso, Jordi; Andrade, Laura Helena; Angermeyer, Matthias C.; Beautrais, Annette; Bromet, Evelyn; Bruffaerts, Ronny; de Girolamo, Giovanni; Florescu, Silvia; Gureje, Oye; Hu, Chiyi; Karam, Elie G; Kovess-Masfety, Viviane; Lee, Sing; Levinson, Daphna; Medina-Mora, Maria Elena; Ormel, Johan; Posada-Villa, Jose; Sagar, Rajesh; Tomov, Toma; Uda, Hidenori; Williams, David R.; Kessler, Ronald C.

2009-01-01

Objective Although suicide is a leading cause of death worldwide, clinicians and researchers lack a data-driven method to assess the risk of suicide attempts. This study reports the results of an analysis of a large cross-national epidemiological survey database that estimates the 12-month prevalence of suicidal behaviors, identifies risk factors for suicide attempts, and combines these factors to create a risk index for 12-month suicide attempts separately for developed and developing countries. Method Data come from the WHO World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys (conducted 2001–2007) in which 108,705 adults from 21 countries were interviewed using the WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). The survey assessed suicidal behaviors and potential risk factors across multiple domains including: socio-demographics, parent psychopathology, childhood adversities, DSM-IV disorders, and history of suicidal behavior. Results Twelve-month prevalence estimates of suicide ideation, plans and attempts are 2.0%, 0.6% and 0.3% respectively for developed countries and 2.1%, 0.7% and 0.4% for developing countries. Risk factors for suicidal behaviors in both developed and developing countries include: female sex, younger age, lower education and income, unmarried status, unemployment, parent psychopathology, childhood adversities, and presence of diverse 12-month DSM-IV mental disorders. Combining risk factors from multiple domains produced risk indices that accurately predicted 12-month suicide attempts in both developed and developing countries (AUC=.74–.80). Conclusion Suicidal behaviors occur at similar rates in both developed and developing countries. Risk indices assessing multiple domains can predict suicide attempts with fairly good accuracy and may be useful in aiding clinicians in the prediction of these behaviors. PMID:20816034

Real-time eutrophication status evaluation of coastal waters using support vector machine with grid search algorithm.

PubMed

Kong, Xianyu; Sun, Yuyan; Su, Rongguo; Shi, Xiaoyong

2017-06-15

The development of techniques for real-time monitoring of the eutrophication status of coastal waters is of great importance for realizing potential cost savings in coastal monitoring programs and providing timely advice for marine health management. In this study, a GS optimized SVM was proposed to model relationships between 6 easily measured parameters (DO, Chl-a, C1, C2, C3 and C4) and the TRIX index for rapidly assessing marine eutrophication states of coastal waters. The good predictive performance of the developed method was indicated by the R 2 between the measured and predicted values (0.92 for the training dataset and 0.91 for the validation dataset) at a 95% confidence level. The classification accuracy of the eutrophication status was 86.5% for the training dataset and 85.6% for the validation dataset. The results indicated that it is feasible to develop an SVM technique for timely evaluation of the eutrophication status by easily measured parameters. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Volunteers, Head Start Children, and Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wooden, Howard E.; And Others

1976-01-01

Investigated with 12 preschool children were whether IQ scores are a predictive indicator of potential learning disability and whether nonprofessional volunteers can remediate possible motor, perceptual, or verbal deficiencies with a concomitant increase in IQ score. (DB)

Early Prediction of Intensive Care Unit-Acquired Weakness: A Multicenter External Validation Study.

PubMed

Witteveen, Esther; Wieske, Luuk; Sommers, Juultje; Spijkstra, Jan-Jaap; de Waard, Monique C; Endeman, Henrik; Rijkenberg, Saskia; de Ruijter, Wouter; Sleeswijk, Mengalvio; Verhamme, Camiel; Schultz, Marcus J; van Schaik, Ivo N; Horn, Janneke

2018-01-01

An early diagnosis of intensive care unit-acquired weakness (ICU-AW) is often not possible due to impaired consciousness. To avoid a diagnostic delay, we previously developed a prediction model, based on single-center data from 212 patients (development cohort), to predict ICU-AW at 2 days after ICU admission. The objective of this study was to investigate the external validity of the original prediction model in a new, multicenter cohort and, if necessary, to update the model. Newly admitted ICU patients who were mechanically ventilated at 48 hours after ICU admission were included. Predictors were prospectively recorded, and the outcome ICU-AW was defined by an average Medical Research Council score <4. In the validation cohort, consisting of 349 patients, we analyzed performance of the original prediction model by assessment of calibration and discrimination. Additionally, we updated the model in this validation cohort. Finally, we evaluated a new prediction model based on all patients of the development and validation cohort. Of 349 analyzed patients in the validation cohort, 190 (54%) developed ICU-AW. Both model calibration and discrimination of the original model were poor in the validation cohort. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC-ROC) was 0.60 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.54-0.66). Model updating methods improved calibration but not discrimination. The new prediction model, based on all patients of the development and validation cohort (total of 536 patients) had a fair discrimination, AUC-ROC: 0.70 (95% CI: 0.66-0.75). The previously developed prediction model for ICU-AW showed poor performance in a new independent multicenter validation cohort. Model updating methods improved calibration but not discrimination. The newly derived prediction model showed fair discrimination. This indicates that early prediction of ICU-AW is still challenging and needs further attention.

Climate Drivers of Spatiotemporal Variability of Precipitation in the Source Region of Yangtze River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Y.; Berndtsson, R.; An, D.; Yuan, F.

2017-12-01

Variability of precipitation regime has significant influence on the environment sustainability in the source region of Yangtze River, especially when the vegetation degradation and biodiversity reduction have already occurred. Understanding the linkage between variability of local precipitation and global teleconnection patterns is essential for water resources management. Based on physical reasoning, indices of the climate drivers can provide a practical way of predicting precipitation. Due to high seasonal variability of precipitation, climate drivers of the seasonal precipitation also varies. However, few reports have gone through the teleconnections between large scale patterns with seasonal precipitation in the source region of Yangtze River. The objectives of this study are therefore (1) assessment of temporal trend and spatial variability of precipitation in the source region of Yangtze River; (2) identification of climate indices with strong influence on seasonal precipitation anomalies; (3) prediction of seasonal precipitation based on revealed climate indices. Principal component analysis and Spearman rank correlation were used to detect significant relationships. A feed-forward artificial neural network(ANN) was developed to predict seasonal precipitation using significant correlated climate indices. Different influencing climate indices were revealed for precipitation in each season, with significant level and lag times. Significant influencing factors were selected to be the predictors for ANN model. With correlation coefficients between observed and simulated precipitation over 0.5, the results were eligible to predict the precipitation of spring, summer and winter using teleconnections, which can improve integrated water resources management in the source region of Yangtze River.

Modeling and Testing of the Viscoelastic Properties of a Graphite Nanoplatelet/Epoxy Composite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Odegard, Gregory M.; Gates, Thomas S.

2005-01-01

In order to facilitate the interpretation of experimental data, a micromechanical modeling procedure is developed to predict the viscoelastic properties of a graphite nanoplatelet/epoxy composite as a function of volume fraction and nanoplatelet diameter. The predicted storage and loss moduli for the composite are compared to measured values from the same material using three test methods; Dynamical Mechanical Analysis, nanoindentation, and quasi-static tensile tests. In most cases, the model and experiments indicate that for increasing volume fractions of nanoplatelets, both the storage and loss moduli increase. Also, the results indicate that for nanoplatelet sizes above 15 microns, nanoindentation is capable of measuring properties of individual constituents of a composite system. Comparison of the predicted values to the measured data helps illustrate the relative similarities and differences between the bulk and local measurement techniques.

Comparison of watershed disturbance predictive models for stream benthic macroinvertebrates for three distinct ecoregions in western US

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waite, Ian R.; Brown, Larry R.; Kennen, Jonathan G.; May, Jason T.; Cuffney, Thomas F.; Orlando, James L.; Jones, Kimberly A.

2010-01-01

The successful use of macroinvertebrates as indicators of stream condition in bioassessments has led to heightened interest throughout the scientific community in the prediction of stream condition. For example, predictive models are increasingly being developed that use measures of watershed disturbance, including urban and agricultural land-use, as explanatory variables to predict various metrics of biological condition such as richness, tolerance, percent predators, index of biotic integrity, functional species traits, or even ordination axes scores. Our primary intent was to determine if effective models could be developed using watershed characteristics of disturbance to predict macroinvertebrate metrics among disparate and widely separated ecoregions. We aggregated macroinvertebrate data from universities and state and federal agencies in order to assemble stream data sets of high enough density appropriate for modeling in three distinct ecoregions in Oregon and California. Extensive review and quality assurance of macroinvertebrate sampling protocols, laboratory subsample counts and taxonomic resolution was completed to assure data comparability. We used widely available digital coverages of land-use and land-cover data summarized at the watershed and riparian scale as explanatory variables to predict macroinvertebrate metrics commonly used by state resource managers to assess stream condition. The “best” multiple linear regression models from each region required only two or three explanatory variables to model macroinvertebrate metrics and explained 41–74% of the variation. In each region the best model contained some measure of urban and/or agricultural land-use, yet often the model was improved by including a natural explanatory variable such as mean annual precipitation or mean watershed slope. Two macroinvertebrate metrics were common among all three regions, the metric that summarizes the richness of tolerant macroinvertebrates (RICHTOL) and some form of EPT (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera) richness. Best models were developed for the same two invertebrate metrics even though the geographic regions reflect distinct differences in precipitation, geology, elevation, slope, population density, and land-use. With further development, models like these can be used to elicit better causal linkages to stream biological attributes or condition and can be used by researchers or managers to predict biological indicators of stream condition at unsampled sites.

Cortical Thickness Predicts the First Onset of Major Depression in Adolescence

PubMed Central

Foland-Ross, Lara C.; Sacchet, Matthew D.; Prasad, Gautam; Gilbert, Brooke; Thompson, Paul M.; Gotlib, Ian H.

2015-01-01

Given the increasing prevalence of Major Depressive Disorder and recent advances in preventative treatments for this disorder, an important challenge in pediatric neuroimaging is the early identification of individuals at risk for depression. We examined whether machine learning can be used to predict the onset of depression at the individual level. Thirty-three never-disordered adolescents (10–15 years old) underwent structural MRI. Participants were followed for 5 years to monitor the emergence of clinically significant depressive symptoms. We used support vector machines (SVMs) to test whether baseline cortical thickness could reliably distinguish adolescents who develop depression from adolescents who remained free of any Axis I disorder. Accuracies from subsampled cross-validated classification were used to assess classifier performance. Baseline cortical thickness correctly predicted the future onset of depression with an overall accuracy of 70% (69% sensitivity, 70% specificity; p = 0.021). Examination of SVM feature weights indicated that the right medial orbitofrontal, right precentral, left anterior cingulate, and bilateral insular cortex contributed most strongly to this classification. These findings indicate that cortical gray matter structure can predict the subsequent onset of depression. An important direction for future research is to elucidate mechanisms by which these anomalies in gray matter structure increase risk for developing this disorder. PMID:26315399

Cortical thickness predicts the first onset of major depression in adolescence.

PubMed

Foland-Ross, Lara C; Sacchet, Matthew D; Prasad, Gautam; Gilbert, Brooke; Thompson, Paul M; Gotlib, Ian H

2015-11-01

Given the increasing prevalence of Major Depressive Disorder and recent advances in preventative treatments for this disorder, an important challenge in pediatric neuroimaging is the early identification of individuals at risk for depression. We examined whether machine learning can be used to predict the onset of depression at the individual level. Thirty-three never-disordered adolescents (10-15 years old) underwent structural MRI. Participants were followed for 5 years to monitor the emergence of clinically significant depressive symptoms. We used support vector machines (SVMs) to test whether baseline cortical thickness could reliably distinguish adolescents who develop depression from adolescents who remained free of any Axis I disorder. Accuracies from subsampled cross-validated classification were used to assess classifier performance. Baseline cortical thickness correctly predicted the future onset of depression with an overall accuracy of 70% (69% sensitivity, 70% specificity; p=0.021). Examination of SVM feature weights indicated that the right medial orbitofrontal, right precentral, left anterior cingulate, and bilateral insular cortex contributed most strongly to this classification. These findings indicate that cortical gray matter structure can predict the subsequent onset of depression. An important direction for future research is to elucidate mechanisms by which these anomalies in gray matter structure increase risk for developing this disorder. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating the fuel moisture content of indicator sticks from selected weather variables

Treesearch

Theodore G. Storey

1965-01-01

Equations were developed to predict the fuel moisture content of indicator sticks from the controlling weather variables. Moisture content of ⅛-inch thick basswood slats used in the South and East could be determined with about equal precision by equation in the critical low moisture range or by weighing at fire danger stations. The most useful equation...

Social Competence in Infants and Toddlers with Special Health Care Needs: The Roles of Parental Knowledge, Expectations, Attunement, and Attitudes toward Child Independence

PubMed Central

Zand, Debra; Pierce, Katherine; Thomson, Nicole; Baig, M. Waseem; Teodorescu, Cristiana; Nibras, Sohail; Maxim, Rolanda

2014-01-01

Little research has empirically addressed the relationships among parental knowledge of child development, parental attunement, parental expectations, and child independence in predicting the social competence of infants and toddlers with special health care needs. We used baseline data from the Strengthening Families Project, a prevention intervention study that tested Bavolek’s Nurturing Program for Parents and Their Children with Health Challenges to explore the roles of these variables in predicting social competence in infants and toddlers with special health care needs. Bivariate relationships among the study variables were explored and used to develop and test a model for predicting social competence among these children. Study findings pointed to a combination of indirect and direct influences of parent variables in predicting social competence. Results indicated that parents who encouraged healthy behaviors for developing a sense of power/independence were more likely to have children with social competence developing on schedule. Elements related to parental expectations, however, did not have the hypothesized relationships to social competence. The present study provides preliminary data to support the development of knowledge based interventions. Within medical settings, such interventions may indeed maximize benefit while minimizing cost. PMID:27417463

Help Me Where I Am: Scaffolding Writing in Preschool Classrooms

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Quinn, Margaret F.; Gerde, Hope K.; Bingham, Gary E.

2016-01-01

Early writing is important to young children's development--research indicates that writing is predictive of later reading and writing. Despite this, preschool teachers often do not focus on writing and offer limited scaffolding to foster children's writing development. This article shares innovative ways to scaffold early writing across the three…

Establishing a Sense of Personal Control in the Transition to Adulthood.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lewis, Susan K.; Mirowsky, John; Ross, Catherine E.

1999-01-01

National Longitudinal Survey of Youth data indicate that sense of personal control increased from age 14 to 22. Dropping out of school hampered development; teen pregnancy did not. Adolescent sense of control and further adult development correlated positively with cognitive skill and parental education. Low perceived control predicted subsequent…

NON-NEOPLASTIC LESIONS: USE OF DATA FROM PRE- OR NON-NEOPLASTIC LESIONS THAT MAY INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR CARCINOGENESIS

EPA Science Inventory

The Toxicology and Microbiology Division of the US EPA, Health Effects Research Laboratory has initiated a research program to develop a matrix of short-term tests to distinguish carcinogens from non-carcinogens among genotoxic substances and to develop methods for predicting rel...

Worry and Metacognitions as Predictors of Anxiety Symptoms: A Prospective Study

PubMed Central

Ryum, Truls; Kennair, Leif Edward Ottesen; Hjemdal, Odin; Hagen, Roger; Halvorsen, Joar Øveraas; Solem, Stian

2017-01-01

Both worry and metacognitive beliefs have been found to be related to the development of anxiety, but metacognitive theory (Wells and Matthews, 1994; Wells, 2009) suggest that metacognitive beliefs may play a more prominent role. The aim of the present prospective study was to examine whether worry, metacognitive beliefs or the interaction between worry and metacognitive beliefs, were the best predictor of anxiety over time, utilizing a longitudinal, prospective study design. An undergraduate student sample (N = 190) was assessed on measures of worry (PSWQ), metacognitive beliefs (MCQ-30) and anxiety (BAI) at three points in time over a 7-month period. A mixed-model analysis revealed that both worry and metacognitive beliefs predicted development of anxiety, independently of each other, with no indication of an interaction-effect (PSWQ * MCQ-30). Further, analyses of the MCQ-30 subscales indicated that negative metacognitive beliefs may be particularly important in the development of anxiety. While gender was correlated with worry, gender predicted anxiety beyond the effect of worry. Taken together, the results imply that both worry and metacognitive beliefs play a prominent role for the development of anxiety. PMID:28620338

Operational indicators for measuring agricultural sustainability in developing countries.

PubMed

Zhen, Lin; Routray, Jayant K

2003-07-01

This paper reviews relevant literature on the sustainability indicators theoretically proposed and practically applied by scholars over the past 15 years. Although progress is being made in the development and critical analysis of sustainability indicators, in many cases existing or proposed indicators are not the most sensitive or useful measures in developing countries. Indicator selection needs to meet the following criteria: relative availability of data representing the indicators, sensitivity to stresses on the system, existence of threshold values and guidelines, predictivity, integratability and known response to disturbances, anthropogenic stresses, and changes over time. Based on these criteria, this paper proposes a set of operational indicators for measuring agricultural sustainability in developing countries. These indicators include ecological indicators involving amounts of fertilizers and pesticides used, irrigation water used, soil nutrient content, depth to the groundwater table, water use efficiency, quality of groundwater for irrigation, and nitrate content of both groundwater and crops. Economic indicators include crop productivity, net farm income, benefit-cost ratio of production, and per capita food grain production. Social indicators encompass food self-sufficiency, equality in food and income distribution among farmers, access to resources and support services, and farmers' knowledge and awareness of resource conservation. This article suggests that the selection of indicators representing each aspect of sustainability should be prioritized according to spatial and temporal characteristics under consideration.

Opening up the blackbox: an interpretable deep neural network-based classifier for cell-type specific enhancer predictions.

PubMed

Kim, Seong Gon; Theera-Ampornpunt, Nawanol; Fang, Chih-Hao; Harwani, Mrudul; Grama, Ananth; Chaterji, Somali

2016-08-01

Gene expression is mediated by specialized cis-regulatory modules (CRMs), the most prominent of which are called enhancers. Early experiments indicated that enhancers located far from the gene promoters are often responsible for mediating gene transcription. Knowing their properties, regulatory activity, and genomic targets is crucial to the functional understanding of cellular events, ranging from cellular homeostasis to differentiation. Recent genome-wide investigation of epigenomic marks has indicated that enhancer elements could be enriched for certain epigenomic marks, such as, combinatorial patterns of histone modifications. Our efforts in this paper are motivated by these recent advances in epigenomic profiling methods, which have uncovered enhancer-associated chromatin features in different cell types and organisms. Specifically, in this paper, we use recent state-of-the-art Deep Learning methods and develop a deep neural network (DNN)-based architecture, called EP-DNN, to predict the presence and types of enhancers in the human genome. It uses as features, the expression levels of the histone modifications at the peaks of the functional sites as well as in its adjacent regions. We apply EP-DNN to four different cell types: H1, IMR90, HepG2, and HeLa S3. We train EP-DNN using p300 binding sites as enhancers, and TSS and random non-DHS sites as non-enhancers. We perform EP-DNN predictions to quantify the validation rate for different levels of confidence in the predictions and also perform comparisons against two state-of-the-art computational models for enhancer predictions, DEEP-ENCODE and RFECS. We find that EP-DNN has superior accuracy and takes less time to make predictions. Next, we develop methods to make EP-DNN interpretable by computing the importance of each input feature in the classification task. This analysis indicates that the important histone modifications were distinct for different cell types, with some overlaps, e.g., H3K27ac was important in cell type H1 but less so in HeLa S3, while H3K4me1 was relatively important in all four cell types. We finally use the feature importance analysis to reduce the number of input features needed to train the DNN, thus reducing training time, which is often the computational bottleneck in the use of a DNN. In this paper, we developed EP-DNN, which has high accuracy of prediction, with validation rates above 90 % for the operational region of enhancer prediction for all four cell lines that we studied, outperforming DEEP-ENCODE and RFECS. Then, we developed a method to analyze a trained DNN and determine which histone modifications are important, and within that, which features proximal or distal to the enhancer site, are important.

Genomic Prediction of Seed Quality Traits Using Advanced Barley Breeding Lines.

PubMed

Nielsen, Nanna Hellum; Jahoor, Ahmed; Jensen, Jens Due; Orabi, Jihad; Cericola, Fabio; Edriss, Vahid; Jensen, Just

2016-01-01

Genomic selection was recently introduced in plant breeding. The objective of this study was to develop genomic prediction for important seed quality parameters in spring barley. The aim was to predict breeding values without expensive phenotyping of large sets of lines. A total number of 309 advanced spring barley lines tested at two locations each with three replicates were phenotyped and each line was genotyped by Illumina iSelect 9Kbarley chip. The population originated from two different breeding sets, which were phenotyped in two different years. Phenotypic measurements considered were: seed size, protein content, protein yield, test weight and ergosterol content. A leave-one-out cross-validation strategy revealed high prediction accuracies ranging between 0.40 and 0.83. Prediction across breeding sets resulted in reduced accuracies compared to the leave-one-out strategy. Furthermore, predicting across full and half-sib-families resulted in reduced prediction accuracies. Additionally, predictions were performed using reduced marker sets and reduced training population sets. In conclusion, using less than 200 lines in the training set can result in low prediction accuracy, and the accuracy will then be highly dependent on the family structure of the selected training set. However, the results also indicate that relatively small training sets (200 lines) are sufficient for genomic prediction in commercial barley breeding. In addition, our results indicate a minimum marker set of 1,000 to decrease the risk of low prediction accuracy for some traits or some families.

Genomic Prediction of Seed Quality Traits Using Advanced Barley Breeding Lines

PubMed Central

Nielsen, Nanna Hellum; Jahoor, Ahmed; Jensen, Jens Due; Orabi, Jihad; Cericola, Fabio; Edriss, Vahid; Jensen, Just

2016-01-01

Genomic selection was recently introduced in plant breeding. The objective of this study was to develop genomic prediction for important seed quality parameters in spring barley. The aim was to predict breeding values without expensive phenotyping of large sets of lines. A total number of 309 advanced spring barley lines tested at two locations each with three replicates were phenotyped and each line was genotyped by Illumina iSelect 9Kbarley chip. The population originated from two different breeding sets, which were phenotyped in two different years. Phenotypic measurements considered were: seed size, protein content, protein yield, test weight and ergosterol content. A leave-one-out cross-validation strategy revealed high prediction accuracies ranging between 0.40 and 0.83. Prediction across breeding sets resulted in reduced accuracies compared to the leave-one-out strategy. Furthermore, predicting across full and half-sib-families resulted in reduced prediction accuracies. Additionally, predictions were performed using reduced marker sets and reduced training population sets. In conclusion, using less than 200 lines in the training set can result in low prediction accuracy, and the accuracy will then be highly dependent on the family structure of the selected training set. However, the results also indicate that relatively small training sets (200 lines) are sufficient for genomic prediction in commercial barley breeding. In addition, our results indicate a minimum marker set of 1,000 to decrease the risk of low prediction accuracy for some traits or some families. PMID:27783639

Global integrated drought monitoring and prediction system

PubMed Central

Hao, Zengchao; AghaKouchak, Amir; Nakhjiri, Navid; Farahmand, Alireza

2014-01-01

Drought is by far the most costly natural disaster that can lead to widespread impacts, including water and food crises. Here we present data sets available from the Global Integrated Drought Monitoring and Prediction System (GIDMaPS), which provides drought information based on multiple drought indicators. The system provides meteorological and agricultural drought information based on multiple satellite-, and model-based precipitation and soil moisture data sets. GIDMaPS includes a near real-time monitoring component and a seasonal probabilistic prediction module. The data sets include historical drought severity data from the monitoring component, and probabilistic seasonal forecasts from the prediction module. The probabilistic forecasts provide essential information for early warning, taking preventive measures, and planning mitigation strategies. GIDMaPS data sets are a significant extension to current capabilities and data sets for global drought assessment and early warning. The presented data sets would be instrumental in reducing drought impacts especially in developing countries. Our results indicate that GIDMaPS data sets reliably captured several major droughts from across the globe. PMID:25977759

Global integrated drought monitoring and prediction system.

PubMed

Hao, Zengchao; AghaKouchak, Amir; Nakhjiri, Navid; Farahmand, Alireza

2014-01-01

Drought is by far the most costly natural disaster that can lead to widespread impacts, including water and food crises. Here we present data sets available from the Global Integrated Drought Monitoring and Prediction System (GIDMaPS), which provides drought information based on multiple drought indicators. The system provides meteorological and agricultural drought information based on multiple satellite-, and model-based precipitation and soil moisture data sets. GIDMaPS includes a near real-time monitoring component and a seasonal probabilistic prediction module. The data sets include historical drought severity data from the monitoring component, and probabilistic seasonal forecasts from the prediction module. The probabilistic forecasts provide essential information for early warning, taking preventive measures, and planning mitigation strategies. GIDMaPS data sets are a significant extension to current capabilities and data sets for global drought assessment and early warning. The presented data sets would be instrumental in reducing drought impacts especially in developing countries. Our results indicate that GIDMaPS data sets reliably captured several major droughts from across the globe.

Machine health prognostics using the Bayesian-inference-based probabilistic indication and high-order particle filtering framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Jianbo

2015-12-01

Prognostics is much efficient to achieve zero-downtime performance, maximum productivity and proactive maintenance of machines. Prognostics intends to assess and predict the time evolution of machine health degradation so that machine failures can be predicted and prevented. A novel prognostics system is developed based on the data-model-fusion scheme using the Bayesian inference-based self-organizing map (SOM) and an integration of logistic regression (LR) and high-order particle filtering (HOPF). In this prognostics system, a baseline SOM is constructed to model the data distribution space of healthy machine under an assumption that predictable fault patterns are not available. Bayesian inference-based probability (BIP) derived from the baseline SOM is developed as a quantification indication of machine health degradation. BIP is capable of offering failure probability for the monitored machine, which has intuitionist explanation related to health degradation state. Based on those historic BIPs, the constructed LR and its modeling noise constitute a high-order Markov process (HOMP) to describe machine health propagation. HOPF is used to solve the HOMP estimation to predict the evolution of the machine health in the form of a probability density function (PDF). An on-line model update scheme is developed to adapt the Markov process changes to machine health dynamics quickly. The experimental results on a bearing test-bed illustrate the potential applications of the proposed system as an effective and simple tool for machine health prognostics.

Predictive value of serum sST2 in preschool wheezers for development of asthma with high FeNO.

PubMed

Ketelaar, M E; van de Kant, K D; Dijk, F N; Klaassen, E M; Grotenboer, N S; Nawijn, M C; Dompeling, E; Koppelman, G H

2017-11-01

Wheezing is common in childhood. However, current prediction models of pediatric asthma have only modest accuracy. Novel biomarkers and definition of subphenotypes may improve asthma prediction. Interleukin-1-receptor-like-1 (IL1RL1 or ST2) is a well-replicated asthma gene and associates with eosinophilia. We investigated whether serum sST2 predicts asthma and asthma with elevated exhaled NO (FeNO), compared to the commonly used Asthma Prediction Index (API). Using logistic regression modeling, we found that serum sST2 levels in 2-3 years-old wheezers do not predict doctors' diagnosed asthma at age 6 years. Instead, sST2 predicts a subphenotype of asthma characterized by increased levels of FeNO, a marker for eosinophilic airway inflammation. Herein, sST2 improved the predictive value of the API (AUC=0.70, 95% CI 0.56-0.84), but had also significant predictive value on its own (AUC=0.65, 95% CI 0.52-0.79). Our study indicates that sST2 in preschool wheezers has predictive value for the development of eosinophilic airway inflammation in asthmatic children at school age. © 2017 EAACI and John Wiley and Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley and Sons Ltd.

SR-121463. Sanofi-Synthélabo.

PubMed

Martinez-Castelao, A

2001-10-01

Sanofi-Synthélabo (formerly Sanofi) is developing SR-121463, a vasopressin V, receptor antagonist, as a potential treatment for cardiovascular indications such as congestive heart failure (CHF) and hypertension [330073], [341858]. By September 2001, it had entered phase IIa trials for these indications [421268]. SR-121463 was in phase I clinical trials for CHF and hypertension in June 2001 [359231], [413342]. It was also being evaluated for the potential treatment of glaucoma but its development has been discontinued for this indication [367094]. In October 1999, Lehman Brothers predicted a 5% chance of the compound reaching market, with a launch anticipated in 2004 and potential peak sales of $100 million in 2012 [346267].

The cognitive bases of the development of past and future episodic cognition in preschoolers.

PubMed

Ünal, Gülten; Hohenberger, Annette

2017-10-01

The aim of this study was to use a minimalist framework to examine the joint development of past and future episodic cognition and their underlying cognitive abilities in 3- to 5-year-old Turkish preschoolers. Participants engaged in two main tasks, a what-where-when (www) task to measure episodic memory and a future prediction task to measure episodic future thinking. Three additional tasks were used for predicting children's performance in the two main tasks: a temporal language task, an executive function task, and a spatial working memory task. Results indicated that past and future episodic tasks were significantly correlated with each other even after controlling for age. Hierarchical multiple regressions showed that, after controlling for age, the www task was predicted by executive functions, possibly supporting binding of episodic information and by linguistic abilities. The future prediction task was predicted by linguistic abilities alone, underlining the importance of language for episodic past and future thinking. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

How well can wave runup be predicted? comment on Laudier et al. (2011) and Stockdon et al. (2006)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Plant, Nathaniel G.; Stockdon, Hilary F.

2015-01-01

Laudier et al. (2011) suggested that there may be a systematic bias error in runup predictions using a model developed by Stockdon et al. (2006). Laudier et al. tested cases that sampled beach and wave conditions that differed from those used to develop the Stockdon et al. model. Based on our re-analysis, we found that in two of the three Laudier et al. cases observed overtopping was actually consistent with the Stockdon et al. predictions. In these cases, the revised predictions indicated substantial overtopping with, in one case, a freeboard deficit of 1 m. In the third case, the revised prediction had a low likelihood of overtopping, which reflected a large uncertainty due to wave conditions that included a broad and bi-modal frequency distribution. The discrepancy between Laudier et al. results and our re-analysis appear to be due, in part, to simplifications made by Laudier et al. when they implemented a reduced version of the Stockdon et al. model.

Thermodynamic and Kinematic Flow Characteristics of Some Developing and Non-Developing Disturbances in Predict

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-12-01

normal ( 1S ) and parallel ( 2S ) strain rates squared. U and V are the zonal and meridional velocities and the x and y subscripts indicate partial...between developing and non-developing tropical disturbances appears to lie with the kinematic flow boundary structure and thermodynamic properties ...tropical disturbances appears to lie with the kinematic flow boundary structure and thermodynamic properties hypothesized in the marsupial paradigm

A comparison of predicted and measured inlet distortion flows in a subsonic axial inlet flow compressor rotor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Owen, Albert K.

1992-01-01

Detailed flow measurements were taken inside an isolated axial compressor rotor operating subsonically near peak efficiency. These Laser Anemometer measurements were made with two inlet velocity profiles. One profile consisted of an unmodified baseline flow, and the second profile was distorted by placing axisymmetric screens on the hub and shroud well upstream of the rotor. A detailed comparison in the rotor relative reference frame between a Navier-Stokes solver and the measured experimental results showed good agreement between the predicted and measured flows. A primary flow is defined in the rotor and deviations and the computed predictions is made to assess the development of a passage vortex due to the distortion of the inlet flow. Computer predictions indicate that a distorted inlet profile has a minimal effect on the development of the flow in the rotor passage and the resulting passage vortex.

Analytical prediction of the interior noise for cylindrical models of aircraft fuselages for prescribed exterior noise fields. Phase 2: Models for sidewall trim, stiffened structures and cabin acoustics with floor partition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pope, L. D.; Wilby, E. G.

1982-01-01

An airplane interior noise prediction model is developed to determine the important parameters associated with sound transmission into the interiors of airplanes, and to identify apropriate noise control methods. Models for stiffened structures, and cabin acoustics with floor partition are developed. Validation studies are undertaken using three test articles: a ring stringer stiffened cylinder, an unstiffened cylinder with floor partition, and ring stringer stiffened cylinder with floor partition and sidewall trim. The noise reductions of the three test articles are computed using the heoretical models and compared to measured values. A statistical analysis of the comparison data indicates that there is no bias in the predictions although a substantial random error exists so that a discrepancy of more than five or six dB can be expected for about one out of three predictions.

Forecasting seasonal outbreaks of influenza.

PubMed

Shaman, Jeffrey; Karspeck, Alicia

2012-12-11

Influenza recurs seasonally in temperate regions of the world; however, our ability to predict the timing, duration, and magnitude of local seasonal outbreaks of influenza remains limited. Here we develop a framework for initializing real-time forecasts of seasonal influenza outbreaks, using a data assimilation technique commonly applied in numerical weather prediction. The availability of real-time, web-based estimates of local influenza infection rates makes this type of quantitative forecasting possible. Retrospective ensemble forecasts are generated on a weekly basis following assimilation of these web-based estimates for the 2003-2008 influenza seasons in New York City. The findings indicate that real-time skillful predictions of peak timing can be made more than 7 wk in advance of the actual peak. In addition, confidence in those predictions can be inferred from the spread of the forecast ensemble. This work represents an initial step in the development of a statistically rigorous system for real-time forecast of seasonal influenza.

Forecasting seasonal outbreaks of influenza

PubMed Central

Shaman, Jeffrey; Karspeck, Alicia

2012-01-01

Influenza recurs seasonally in temperate regions of the world; however, our ability to predict the timing, duration, and magnitude of local seasonal outbreaks of influenza remains limited. Here we develop a framework for initializing real-time forecasts of seasonal influenza outbreaks, using a data assimilation technique commonly applied in numerical weather prediction. The availability of real-time, web-based estimates of local influenza infection rates makes this type of quantitative forecasting possible. Retrospective ensemble forecasts are generated on a weekly basis following assimilation of these web-based estimates for the 2003–2008 influenza seasons in New York City. The findings indicate that real-time skillful predictions of peak timing can be made more than 7 wk in advance of the actual peak. In addition, confidence in those predictions can be inferred from the spread of the forecast ensemble. This work represents an initial step in the development of a statistically rigorous system for real-time forecast of seasonal influenza. PMID:23184969

The taxonomic distinctness of macroinvertebrate communities of Atlantic Forest streams cannot be predicted by landscape and climate variables, but traditional biodiversity indices can.

PubMed

Roque, F O; Guimarães, E A; Ribeiro, M C; Escarpinati, S C; Suriano, M T; Siqueira, T

2014-11-01

Predicting how anthropogenic activities may influence the various components of biodiversity is essential for finding ways to reduce diversity loss. This challenge involves: a) understanding how environmental factors influence diversity across different spatial scales, and b) developing ways to measure these relationships in a way that is fast, economical, and easy to communicate. In this study, we investigate whether landscape and bioclimatic variables could explain variation in biodiversity indices in macroinvertebrate communities from 39 Atlantic Forest streams. In addition to traditional diversity measures, i.e., species richness, abundance and Shannon index, we used a taxonomic distinctness index that measures the degree of phylogenetic relationship among taxa. The amount of variation in the diversity measures that was explained by environmental and spatial variables was estimated using variation partitioning based on multiple regression. Our study demonstrates that taxonomic distinctness does not respond in the same way as the traditional used in biodiversity studies. We found no evidence that taxonomic distinctness responds predictably to variation in landscape metrics, indicating the need for the incorporation of predictors at multiple scales in this type of study. The lack of congruence between taxonomic distinctness and other indices and its low predictability may be related to the fact that this measure expresses long-term evolutionary adaptation to ecosystem conditions, while the other traditional biodiversity metrics respond to short-term environmental changes.

Regional prediction of basin-scale brown trout habitat suitability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceola, S.; Pugliese, A.

2014-09-01

In this study we propose a novel method for the estimation of ecological indices describing the habitat suitability of brown trout (Salmo trutta). Traditional hydrological tools are coupled with an innovative regional geostatistical technique, aiming at the prediction of the brown trout habitat suitability index where partial or totally ungauged conditions occur. Several methods for the assessment of ecological indices are already proposed in the scientific literature, but the possibility of exploiting a geostatistical prediction model, such as Topological Kriging, has never been investigated before. In order to develop a regional habitat suitability model we use the habitat suitability curve, obtained from measured data of brown trout adult individuals collected in several river basins across the USA. The Top-kriging prediction model is then employed to assess the spatial correlation between upstream and downstream habitat suitability indices. The study area is the Metauro River basin, located in the central part of Italy (Marche region), for which both water depth and streamflow data were collected. The present analysis focuses on discharge values corresponding to the 0.1-, 0.5-, 0.9-empirical quantiles derived from flow-duration curves available for seven gauging stations located within the study area, for which three different suitability indices (i.e. ψ10, ψ50 and ψ90) are evaluated. The results of this preliminary analysis are encouraging showing Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies equal to 0.52, 0.65, and 0.69, respectively.

Motor Development and Physical Activity: A Longitudinal Discordant Twin-Pair Study.

PubMed

Aaltonen, Sari; Latvala, Antti; Rose, Richard J; Pulkkinen, Lea; Kujala, Urho M; Kaprio, Jaakko; Silventoinen, Karri

2015-10-01

Previous longitudinal research suggests that motor proficiency in early life predicts physical activity in adulthood. Familial effects including genetic and environmental factors could explain the association, but no long-term follow-up studies have taken into account potential confounding by genetic and social family background. The present twin study investigated whether childhood motor skill development is associated with leisure-time physical activity levels in adulthood independent of family background. Altogether, 1550 twin pairs from the FinnTwin12 study and 1752 twin pairs from the FinnTwin16 study were included in the analysis. Childhood motor development was assessed by the parents' report of whether one of the co-twins had been ahead of the other in different indicators of motor skill development in childhood. Leisure-time physical activity (MET·h·d) was self-reported by the twins in young adulthood and adulthood. Statistical analyses included conditional and ordinary linear regression models within twin pairs. Using all activity-discordant twin pairs, the within-pair difference in a sum score of motor development in childhood predicted the within-pair difference in the leisure-time physical activity level in young adulthood (P < 0.001). Within specific motor development indicators, learning to stand unaided earlier in infancy predicted higher leisure-time MET values in young adulthood statistically significantly in both samples (FinnTwin12, P = 0.02; and FinnTwin16, P = 0.001) and also in the pooled data set of the FinnTwin12 and FinnTwin16 studies (P < 0.001). Having been more agile than the co-twin as a child predicted higher leisure-time MET values up to adulthood (P = 0.03). More advanced childhood motor development is associated with higher leisure-time MET values in young adulthood at least partly independent of family background in both men and women.

MOTOR DEVELOPMENT AND PHYSICAL ACTIVITY: A LONGITUDINAL DISCORDANT TWIN-PAIR STUDY

PubMed Central

Aaltonen, Sari; Latvala, Antti; Rose, Richard J.; Pulkkinen, Lea; Kujala, Urho M.; Kaprio, Jaakko; Silventoinen, Karri

2015-01-01

Introduction Previous longitudinal research suggests that motor proficiency in early life predicts physical activity in adulthood. Familial effects including genetic and environmental factors could explain the association, but no long-term follow-up studies have taken into account potential confounding by genetic and social family background. The present twin study investigated whether childhood motor skill development is associated with leisure-time physical activity levels in adulthood independent of family background. Methods Altogether, 1 550 twin pairs from the FinnTwin12 study and 1 752 twin pairs from the FinnTwin16 study were included in the analysis. Childhood motor development was assessed by the parents’ report of whether one of the co-twins had been ahead of the other in different indicators of motor skill development in childhood. Leisure-time physical activity (MET hours/day) was self-reported by the twins in young adulthood and adulthood. Statistical analyses included conditional and ordinary linear regression models within twin pairs. Results Using all activity-discordant twin pairs, the within-pair difference in a sum score of motor development in childhood predicted the within-pair difference in the leisure-time physical activity level in young adulthood (p<0.001). Within specific motor development indicators, learning to stand unaided earlier in infancy predicted higher leisure-time MET values in young adulthood statistically significantly in both samples (FinnTwin12 p=0.02, FinnTwin16 p=0.001) and also in the pooled dataset of the FinnTwin12 and FinnTwin16 studies (p<0.001). Having been more agile than the co-twin as a child predicted higher leisure-time MET values up to adulthood (p=0.03). Conclusions More advanced childhood motor development is associated with higher leisure-time MET values in young adulthood at least partly independent of family background, in both men and women. PMID:26378945

The home literacy and numeracy environment in preschool: Cross-domain relations of parent-child practices and child outcomes.

PubMed

Napoli, Amy R; Purpura, David J

2018-02-01

There is a growing body of evidence indicating that home literacy and numeracy environments are predictive of children's literacy and numeracy skills within their respective domains. However, there is limited research on the relations between the home literacy environment and numeracy outcomes and between the home numeracy environment and literacy outcomes. Specifically, there is limited information on relations between the home numeracy environment and specific literacy outcomes (e.g., vocabulary). The purpose of the current study was to investigate the relations of the home literacy and numeracy environments to children's literacy and numeracy outcomes both within and across domains. Participants were 114 preschool children and their parents. Children ranged in age from 3.01 to 5.17 years (M = 4.09 years) and were 54% female and 72% Caucasian. Parents reported the frequency of parent-child literacy (code-related practices and storybook reading) and numeracy practices. Children were assessed in the fall and spring of their preschool year on their literacy (definitional vocabulary, phonological awareness, and print knowledge) and numeracy skills. Four mixed-effects regression analyses were conducted to predict each of the child outcomes. Results indicate that although code-related literacy practices and storybook reading were not broadly predictive of children's literacy and numeracy outcomes, the home numeracy environment was predictive of numeracy and definitional vocabulary outcomes. These findings demonstrate a relation between the home numeracy environment and children's language development and contribute to the growing body of research indicating the important relations between early numeracy and language development. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of particle-based flow characteristics using novel Eulerian indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cho, Youngmoon; Kang, Seongwon

2017-11-01

The main objective of this study is to evaluate flow characteristics in complex particle-laden flows efficiently using novel Eulerian indices. For flows with a large number of particles, a Lagrangian approach leads to accurate yet inefficient prediction in many engineering problems. We propose a technique based on Eulerian transport equation and ensemble-averaged particle properties, which enables efficient evaluation of various particle-based flow characteristics such as the residence time, accumulated travel distance, mean radial force, etc. As a verification study, we compare the developed Eulerian indices with those using Lagrangian approaches for laminar flows with and without a swirling motion and density ratio. The results show satisfactory agreement between two approaches. The accumulated travel distance is modified to analyze flow motions inside IC engines and, when applied to flow bench cases, it can predict swirling and tumbling motions successfully. For flows inside a cyclone separator, the mean radial force is applied to predict the separation of particles and is shown to have a high correlation to the separation efficiency for various working conditions. In conclusion, the proposed Eulerian indices are shown to be useful tools to analyze complex particle-based flow characteristics. Corresponding author.

An online air pollution forecasting system using neural networks.

PubMed

Kurt, Atakan; Gulbagci, Betul; Karaca, Ferhat; Alagha, Omar

2008-07-01

In this work, an online air pollution forecasting system for Greater Istanbul Area is developed. The system predicts three air pollution indicator (SO(2), PM(10) and CO) levels for the next three days (+1, +2, and +3 days) using neural networks. AirPolTool, a user-friendly website (http://airpol.fatih.edu.tr), publishes +1, +2, and +3 days predictions of air pollutants updated twice a day. Experiments presented in this paper show that quite accurate predictions of air pollutant indicator levels are possible with a simple neural network. It is shown that further optimizations of the model can be achieved using different input parameters and different experimental setups. Firstly, +1, +2, and +3 days' pollution levels are predicted independently using same training data, then +2 and +3 days are predicted cumulatively using previously days predicted values. Better prediction results are obtained in the cumulative method. Secondly, the size of training data base used in the model is optimized. The best modeling performance with minimum error rate is achieved using 3-15 past days in the training data set. Finally, the effect of the day of week as an input parameter is investigated. Better forecasts with higher accuracy are observed using the day of week as an input parameter.

ProTox: a web server for the in silico prediction of rodent oral toxicity

PubMed Central

Drwal, Malgorzata N.; Banerjee, Priyanka; Dunkel, Mathias; Wettig, Martin R.; Preissner, Robert

2014-01-01

Animal trials are currently the major method for determining the possible toxic effects of drug candidates and cosmetics. In silico prediction methods represent an alternative approach and aim to rationalize the preclinical drug development, thus enabling the reduction of the associated time, costs and animal experiments. Here, we present ProTox, a web server for the prediction of rodent oral toxicity. The prediction method is based on the analysis of the similarity of compounds with known median lethal doses (LD50) and incorporates the identification of toxic fragments, therefore representing a novel approach in toxicity prediction. In addition, the web server includes an indication of possible toxicity targets which is based on an in-house collection of protein–ligand-based pharmacophore models (‘toxicophores’) for targets associated with adverse drug reactions. The ProTox web server is open to all users and can be accessed without registration at: http://tox.charite.de/tox. The only requirement for the prediction is the two-dimensional structure of the input compounds. All ProTox methods have been evaluated based on a diverse external validation set and displayed strong performance (sensitivity, specificity and precision of 76, 95 and 75%, respectively) and superiority over other toxicity prediction tools, indicating their possible applicability for other compound classes. PMID:24838562

Contra-Rotating Open Rotor Tone Noise Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Envia, Edmane

2014-01-01

Reliable prediction of contra-rotating open rotor (CROR) noise is an essential element of any strategy for the development of low-noise open rotor propulsion systems that can meet both the community noise regulations and the cabin noise limits. Since CROR noise spectra typically exhibits a preponderance of tones, significant efforts have been directed towards predicting their tone spectra. To that end, there has been an ongoing effort at NASA to assess various in-house open rotor tone noise prediction tools using a benchmark CROR blade set for which significant aerodynamic and acoustic data had been acquired in wind tunnel tests. In the work presented here, the focus is on the near-field noise of the benchmark open rotor blade set at the cruise condition. Using an analytical CROR tone noise model with input from high-fidelity aerodynamic simulations, detailed tone noise spectral predictions have been generated and compared with the experimental data. Comparisons indicate that the theoretical predictions are in good agreement with the data, especially for the dominant CROR tones and their overall sound pressure level. The results also indicate that, whereas individual rotor tones are well predicted by the linear sources (i.e., thickness and loading), for the interaction tones it is essential that the quadrupole sources be included in the analysis.

Contra-Rotating Open Rotor Tone Noise Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Envia, Edmane

2014-01-01

Reliable prediction of contra-rotating open rotor (CROR) noise is an essential element of any strategy for the development of low-noise open rotor propulsion systems that can meet both the community noise regulations and cabin noise limits. Since CROR noise spectra exhibit a preponderance of tones, significant efforts have been directed towards predicting their tone content. To that end, there has been an ongoing effort at NASA to assess various in-house open rotor tone noise prediction tools using a benchmark CROR blade set for which significant aerodynamic and acoustic data have been acquired in wind tunnel tests. In the work presented here, the focus is on the nearfield noise of the benchmark open rotor blade set at the cruise condition. Using an analytical CROR tone noise model with input from high-fidelity aerodynamic simulations, tone noise spectra have been predicted and compared with the experimental data. Comparisons indicate that the theoretical predictions are in good agreement with the data, especially for the dominant tones and for the overall sound pressure level of tones. The results also indicate that, whereas the individual rotor tones are well predicted by the combination of the thickness and loading sources, for the interaction tones it is essential that the quadrupole source is also included in the analysis.

Development and validation of anthropometric prediction equations for estimation of lean body mass and appendicular lean soft tissue in Indian men and women.

PubMed

Kulkarni, Bharati; Kuper, Hannah; Taylor, Amy; Wells, Jonathan C; Radhakrishna, K V; Kinra, Sanjay; Ben-Shlomo, Yoav; Smith, George Davey; Ebrahim, Shah; Byrne, Nuala M; Hills, Andrew P

2013-10-15

Lean body mass (LBM) and muscle mass remain difficult to quantify in large epidemiological studies due to the unavailability of inexpensive methods. We therefore developed anthropometric prediction equations to estimate the LBM and appendicular lean soft tissue (ALST) using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) as a reference method. Healthy volunteers (n = 2,220; 36% women; age 18-79 yr), representing a wide range of body mass index (14-44 kg/m(2)), participated in this study. Their LBM, including ALST, was assessed by DXA along with anthropometric measurements. The sample was divided into prediction (60%) and validation (40%) sets. In the prediction set, a number of prediction models were constructed using DXA-measured LBM and ALST estimates as dependent variables and a combination of anthropometric indices as independent variables. These equations were cross-validated in the validation set. Simple equations using age, height, and weight explained >90% variation in the LBM and ALST in both men and women. Additional variables (hip and limb circumferences and sum of skinfold thicknesses) increased the explained variation by 5-8% in the fully adjusted models predicting LBM and ALST. More complex equations using all of the above anthropometric variables could predict the DXA-measured LBM and ALST accurately, as indicated by low standard error of the estimate (LBM: 1.47 kg and 1.63 kg for men and women, respectively), as well as good agreement by Bland-Altman analyses (Bland JM, Altman D. Lancet 1: 307-310, 1986). These equations could be a valuable tool in large epidemiological studies assessing these body compartments in Indians and other population groups with similar body composition.

Development and validation of anthropometric prediction equations for estimation of lean body mass and appendicular lean soft tissue in Indian men and women

PubMed Central

Kuper, Hannah; Taylor, Amy; Wells, Jonathan C.; Radhakrishna, K. V.; Kinra, Sanjay; Ben-Shlomo, Yoav; Smith, George Davey; Ebrahim, Shah; Byrne, Nuala M.; Hills, Andrew P.

2013-01-01

Lean body mass (LBM) and muscle mass remain difficult to quantify in large epidemiological studies due to the unavailability of inexpensive methods. We therefore developed anthropometric prediction equations to estimate the LBM and appendicular lean soft tissue (ALST) using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) as a reference method. Healthy volunteers (n = 2,220; 36% women; age 18-79 yr), representing a wide range of body mass index (14–44 kg/m2), participated in this study. Their LBM, including ALST, was assessed by DXA along with anthropometric measurements. The sample was divided into prediction (60%) and validation (40%) sets. In the prediction set, a number of prediction models were constructed using DXA-measured LBM and ALST estimates as dependent variables and a combination of anthropometric indices as independent variables. These equations were cross-validated in the validation set. Simple equations using age, height, and weight explained >90% variation in the LBM and ALST in both men and women. Additional variables (hip and limb circumferences and sum of skinfold thicknesses) increased the explained variation by 5–8% in the fully adjusted models predicting LBM and ALST. More complex equations using all of the above anthropometric variables could predict the DXA-measured LBM and ALST accurately, as indicated by low standard error of the estimate (LBM: 1.47 kg and 1.63 kg for men and women, respectively), as well as good agreement by Bland-Altman analyses (Bland JM, Altman D. Lancet 1: 307–310, 1986). These equations could be a valuable tool in large epidemiological studies assessing these body compartments in Indians and other population groups with similar body composition. PMID:23950165

Evaluation of the DAVROS (Development And Validation of Risk-adjusted Outcomes for Systems of emergency care) risk-adjustment model as a quality indicator for healthcare

PubMed Central

Wilson, Richard; Goodacre, Steve W; Klingbajl, Marcin; Kelly, Anne-Maree; Rainer, Tim; Coats, Tim; Holloway, Vikki; Townend, Will; Crane, Steve

2014-01-01

Background and objective Risk-adjusted mortality rates can be used as a quality indicator if it is assumed that the discrepancy between predicted and actual mortality can be attributed to the quality of healthcare (ie, the model has attributional validity). The Development And Validation of Risk-adjusted Outcomes for Systems of emergency care (DAVROS) model predicts 7-day mortality in emergency medical admissions. We aimed to test this assumption by evaluating the attributional validity of the DAVROS risk-adjustment model. Methods We selected cases that had the greatest discrepancy between observed mortality and predicted probability of mortality from seven hospitals involved in validation of the DAVROS risk-adjustment model. Reviewers at each hospital assessed hospital records to determine whether the discrepancy between predicted and actual mortality could be explained by the healthcare provided. Results We received 232/280 (83%) completed review forms relating to 179 unexpected deaths and 53 unexpected survivors. The healthcare system was judged to have potentially contributed to 10/179 (8%) of the unexpected deaths and 26/53 (49%) of the unexpected survivors. Failure of the model to appropriately predict risk was judged to be responsible for 135/179 (75%) of the unexpected deaths and 2/53 (4%) of the unexpected survivors. Some 10/53 (19%) of the unexpected survivors died within a few months of the 7-day period of model prediction. Conclusions We found little evidence that deaths occurring in patients with a low predicted mortality from risk-adjustment could be attributed to the quality of healthcare provided. PMID:23605036

Global assessment of predictability of water availability: A bivariate probabilistic Budyko analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Weiguang; Fu, Jianyu

2018-02-01

Estimating continental water availability is of great importance for water resources management, in terms of maintaining ecosystem integrity and sustaining society development. To more accurately quantify the predictability of water availability, on the basis of univariate probabilistic Budyko framework, a bivariate probabilistic Budyko approach was developed using copula-based joint distribution model for considering the dependence between parameter ω of Wang-Tang's equation and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and was applied globally. The results indicate the predictive performance in global water availability is conditional on the climatic condition. In comparison with simple univariate distribution, the bivariate one produces the lower interquartile range under the same global dataset, especially in the regions with higher NDVI values, highlighting the importance of developing the joint distribution by taking into account the dependence structure of parameter ω and NDVI, which can provide more accurate probabilistic evaluation of water availability.

Stata Modules for Calculating Novel Predictive Performance Indices for Logistic Models

PubMed Central

Barkhordari, Mahnaz; Padyab, Mojgan; Hadaegh, Farzad; Azizi, Fereidoun; Bozorgmanesh, Mohammadreza

2016-01-01

Background Prediction is a fundamental part of prevention of cardiovascular diseases (CVD). The development of prediction algorithms based on the multivariate regression models loomed several decades ago. Parallel with predictive models development, biomarker researches emerged in an impressively great scale. The key question is how best to assess and quantify the improvement in risk prediction offered by new biomarkers or more basically how to assess the performance of a risk prediction model. Discrimination, calibration, and added predictive value have been recently suggested to be used while comparing the predictive performances of the predictive models’ with and without novel biomarkers. Objectives Lack of user-friendly statistical software has restricted implementation of novel model assessment methods while examining novel biomarkers. We intended, thus, to develop a user-friendly software that could be used by researchers with few programming skills. Materials and Methods We have written a Stata command that is intended to help researchers obtain cut point-free and cut point-based net reclassification improvement index and (NRI) and relative and absolute Integrated discriminatory improvement index (IDI) for logistic-based regression analyses.We applied the commands to a real data on women participating the Tehran lipid and glucose study (TLGS) to examine if information of a family history of premature CVD, waist circumference, and fasting plasma glucose can improve predictive performance of the Framingham’s “general CVD risk” algorithm. Results The command is addpred for logistic regression models. Conclusions The Stata package provided herein can encourage the use of novel methods in examining predictive capacity of ever-emerging plethora of novel biomarkers. PMID:27279830

Identifying and Assessing Gaps in Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Skill using the North American Multi-model Ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pegion, K.; DelSole, T. M.; Becker, E.; Cicerone, T.

2016-12-01

Predictability represents the upper limit of prediction skill if we had an infinite member ensemble and a perfect model. It is an intrinsic limit of the climate system associated with the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Producing a forecast system that can make predictions very near to this limit is the ultimate goal of forecast system development. Estimates of predictability together with calculations of current prediction skill are often used to define the gaps in our prediction capabilities on subseasonal to seasonal timescales and to inform the scientific issues that must be addressed to build the next forecast system. Quantification of the predictability is also important for providing a scientific basis for relaying to stakeholders what kind of climate information can be provided to inform decision-making and what kind of information is not possible given the intrinsic predictability of the climate system. One challenge with predictability estimates is that different prediction systems can give different estimates of the upper limit of skill. How do we know which estimate of predictability is most representative of the true predictability of the climate system? Previous studies have used the spread-error relationship and the autocorrelation to evaluate the fidelity of the signal and noise estimates. Using a multi-model ensemble prediction system, we can quantify whether these metrics accurately indicate an individual model's ability to properly estimate the signal, noise, and predictability. We use this information to identify the best estimates of predictability for 2-meter temperature, precipitation, and sea surface temperature from the North American Multi-model Ensemble and compare with current skill to indicate the regions with potential for improving skill.

Predicting Adverse Outcomes After Myocardial Infarction Among Patients With Diabetes Mellitus.

PubMed

Arnold, Suzanne V; Spertus, John A; Jones, Philip G; McGuire, Darren K; Lipska, Kasia J; Xu, Yaping; Stolker, Joshua M; Goyal, Abhinav; Kosiborod, Mikhail

2016-07-01

Although patients with diabetes mellitus experience high rates of adverse events after acute myocardial infarction (AMI), including death and recurrent ischemia, some diabetic patients are likely at low risk, whereas others are at high risk. We sought to develop prediction models to stratify risk after AMI in patients with diabetes mellitus. We developed prediction models for long-term mortality and angina among 1613 patients with diabetes mellitus discharged alive after AMI from 24 US hospitals and then validated the models in a separate, multicenter registry of 786 patients with diabetes mellitus. Event rates in the derivation cohort were 27% for 5-year mortality and 27% for 1-year angina. Parsimonious prediction models demonstrated good discrimination (c-indices=0.78 and 0.69, respectively) and excellent calibration. Within the context of the predictors we estimated, the strongest predictors for mortality were higher creatinine, not working at the time of the AMI, older age, lower hemoglobin, left ventricular dysfunction, and chronic heart failure. The strongest predictors for angina were angina burden in the 4 weeks before the AMI, younger age, history of prior coronary bypass graft surgery, and non-white race. The lowest and highest deciles of predicted risk ranged from 4% to 80% for mortality and 12% to 59% for angina. The models also performed well in external validation (c-indices=0.78 and 0.73, respectively). We found a wide range of risk for adverse outcomes after AMI in diabetic patients. Predictive models can identify patients with diabetes mellitus for whom closer follow-up and aggressive secondary prevention strategies should be considered. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Developing and implementing the use of predictive models for estimating water quality at Great Lakes beaches

USGS Publications Warehouse

Francy, Donna S.; Brady, Amie M.G.; Carvin, Rebecca B.; Corsi, Steven R.; Fuller, Lori M.; Harrison, John H.; Hayhurst, Brett A.; Lant, Jeremiah; Nevers, Meredith B.; Terrio, Paul J.; Zimmerman, Tammy M.

2013-01-01

Predictive models have been used at beaches to improve the timeliness and accuracy of recreational water-quality assessments over the most common current approach to water-quality monitoring, which relies on culturing fecal-indicator bacteria such as Escherichia coli (E. coli.). Beach-specific predictive models use environmental and water-quality variables that are easily and quickly measured as surrogates to estimate concentrations of fecal-indicator bacteria or to provide the probability that a State recreational water-quality standard will be exceeded. When predictive models are used for beach closure or advisory decisions, they are referred to as “nowcasts.” During the recreational seasons of 2010-12, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with 23 local and State agencies, worked to improve existing nowcasts at 4 beaches, validate predictive models at another 38 beaches, and collect data for predictive-model development at 7 beaches throughout the Great Lakes. This report summarizes efforts to collect data and develop predictive models by multiple agencies and to compile existing information on the beaches and beach-monitoring programs into one comprehensive report. Local agencies measured E. coli concentrations and variables expected to affect E. coli concentrations such as wave height, turbidity, water temperature, and numbers of birds at the time of sampling. In addition to these field measurements, equipment was installed by the USGS or local agencies at or near several beaches to collect water-quality and metrological measurements in near real time, including nearshore buoys, weather stations, and tributary staff gages and monitors. The USGS worked with local agencies to retrieve data from existing sources either manually or by use of tools designed specifically to compile and process data for predictive-model development. Predictive models were developed by use of linear regression and (or) partial least squares techniques for 42 beaches that had at least 2 years of data (2010-11 and sometimes earlier) and for 1 beach that had 1 year of data. For most models, software designed for model development by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (Virtual Beach) was used. The selected model for each beach was based on a combination of explanatory variables including, most commonly, turbidity, day of the year, change in lake level over 24 hours, wave height, wind direction and speed, and antecedent rainfall for various time periods. Forty-two predictive models were validated against data collected during an independent year (2012) and compared to the current method for assessing recreational water quality-using the previous day’s E. coli concentration (persistence model). Goals for good predictive-model performance were responses that were at least 5 percent greater than the persistence model and overall correct responses greater than or equal to 80 percent, sensitivities (percentage of exceedances of the bathing-water standard that were correctly predicted by the model) greater than or equal to 50 percent, and specificities (percentage of nonexceedances correctly predicted by the model) greater than or equal to 85 percent. Out of 42 predictive models, 24 models yielded over-all correct responses that were at least 5 percent greater than the use of the persistence model. Predictive-model responses met the performance goals more often than the persistence-model responses in terms of overall correctness (28 versus 17 models, respectively), sensitivity (17 versus 4 models), and specificity (34 versus 25 models). Gaining knowledge of each beach and the factors that affect E. coli concentrations is important for developing good predictive models. Collection of additional years of data with a wide range of environmental conditions may also help to improve future model performance. The USGS will continue to work with local agencies in 2013 and beyond to develop and validate predictive models at beaches and improve existing nowcasts, restructuring monitoring activities to accommodate future uncertainties in funding and resources.

Applying network analysis and Nebula (neighbor-edges based and unbiased leverage algorithm) to ToxCast data.

PubMed

Ye, Hao; Luo, Heng; Ng, Hui Wen; Meehan, Joe; Ge, Weigong; Tong, Weida; Hong, Huixiao

2016-01-01

ToxCast data have been used to develop models for predicting in vivo toxicity. To predict the in vivo toxicity of a new chemical using a ToxCast data based model, its ToxCast bioactivity data are needed but not normally available. The capability of predicting ToxCast bioactivity data is necessary to fully utilize ToxCast data in the risk assessment of chemicals. We aimed to understand and elucidate the relationships between the chemicals and bioactivity data of the assays in ToxCast and to develop a network analysis based method for predicting ToxCast bioactivity data. We conducted modularity analysis on a quantitative network constructed from ToxCast data to explore the relationships between the assays and chemicals. We further developed Nebula (neighbor-edges based and unbiased leverage algorithm) for predicting ToxCast bioactivity data. Modularity analysis on the network constructed from ToxCast data yielded seven modules. Assays and chemicals in the seven modules were distinct. Leave-one-out cross-validation yielded a Q(2) of 0.5416, indicating ToxCast bioactivity data can be predicted by Nebula. Prediction domain analysis showed some types of ToxCast assay data could be more reliably predicted by Nebula than others. Network analysis is a promising approach to understand ToxCast data. Nebula is an effective algorithm for predicting ToxCast bioactivity data, helping fully utilize ToxCast data in the risk assessment of chemicals. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Early Predictors of Middle School Fraction Knowledge

PubMed Central

Bailey, Drew H.; Siegler, Robert S.; Geary, David C.

2014-01-01

Recent findings that earlier fraction knowledge predicts later mathematics achievement raise the question of what predicts later fraction knowledge. Analyses of longitudinal data indicated that whole number magnitude knowledge in first grade predicted knowledge of fraction magnitudes in middle school, controlling for whole number arithmetic proficiency, domain general cognitive abilities, parental income and education, race, and gender. Similarly, knowledge of whole number arithmetic in first grade predicted knowledge of fraction arithmetic in middle school, controlling for whole number magnitude knowledge in first grade and the other control variables. In contrast, neither type of early whole number knowledge uniquely predicted middle school reading achievement. We discuss the implications of these findings for theories of numerical development and for improving mathematics learning. PMID:24576209

Prediction of renal crystalline size distributions in space using a PBE analytic model. 2. Effect of dietary countermeasures.

PubMed

Kassemi, Mohammad; Thompson, David

2016-09-01

An analytic Population Balance Equation model is used to assess the efficacy of citrate, pyrophosphate, and augmented fluid intake as dietary countermeasures aimed at reducing the risk of renal stone formation for astronauts. The model uses the measured biochemical profile of the astronauts as input and predicts the steady-state size distribution of the nucleating, growing, and agglomerating renal calculi subject to biochemical changes brought about by administration of these dietary countermeasures. Numerical predictions indicate that an increase in citrate levels beyond its average normal ground-based urinary values is beneficial but only to a limited extent. Unfortunately, results also indicate that any decline in the citrate levels during space travel below its normal urinary values on Earth can easily move the astronaut into the stone-forming risk category. Pyrophosphate is found to be an effective inhibitor since numerical predictions indicate that even at quite small urinary concentrations, it has the potential of shifting the maximum crystal aggregate size to a much smaller and plausibly safer range. Finally, our numerical results predict a decline in urinary volume below 1.5 liters/day can act as a dangerous promoter of renal stone development in microgravity while urinary volume levels of 2.5-3 liters/day can serve as effective space countermeasures. Copyright © 2016 the American Physiological Society.

Chemical graphs, molecular matrices and topological indices in chemoinformatics and quantitative structure-activity relationships.

PubMed

Ivanciuc, Ovidiu

2013-06-01

Chemical and molecular graphs have fundamental applications in chemoinformatics, quantitative structureproperty relationships (QSPR), quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSAR), virtual screening of chemical libraries, and computational drug design. Chemoinformatics applications of graphs include chemical structure representation and coding, database search and retrieval, and physicochemical property prediction. QSPR, QSAR and virtual screening are based on the structure-property principle, which states that the physicochemical and biological properties of chemical compounds can be predicted from their chemical structure. Such structure-property correlations are usually developed from topological indices and fingerprints computed from the molecular graph and from molecular descriptors computed from the three-dimensional chemical structure. We present here a selection of the most important graph descriptors and topological indices, including molecular matrices, graph spectra, spectral moments, graph polynomials, and vertex topological indices. These graph descriptors are used to define several topological indices based on molecular connectivity, graph distance, reciprocal distance, distance-degree, distance-valency, spectra, polynomials, and information theory concepts. The molecular descriptors and topological indices can be developed with a more general approach, based on molecular graph operators, which define a family of graph indices related by a common formula. Graph descriptors and topological indices for molecules containing heteroatoms and multiple bonds are computed with weighting schemes based on atomic properties, such as the atomic number, covalent radius, or electronegativity. The correlation in QSPR and QSAR models can be improved by optimizing some parameters in the formula of topological indices, as demonstrated for structural descriptors based on atomic connectivity and graph distance.

Basic Remote Sensing Investigations for Beach Reconnaissance.

DTIC Science & Technology

Progress is reported on three tasks designed to develop remote sensing beach reconnaissance techniques applicable to the benthic, beach intertidal...and beach upland zones. Task 1 is designed to develop remote sensing indicators of important beach composition and physical parameters which will...ultimately prove useful in models to predict beach conditions. Task 2 is designed to develop remote sensing techniques for survey of bottom features in

Use of chemical indicators of beer aging for ex-post checking of storage conditions and prediction of the sensory stability of beer.

PubMed

Cejka, Pavel; Culík, Jiří; Horák, Tomáš; Jurková, Marie; Olšovská, Jana

2013-12-26

The rate of beer aging is affected by storage conditions including largely time and temperature. Although bottled beer is commonly stored for up to 1 year, sensorial damage of it is quite frequent. Therefore, a method for retrospective determination of temperature of stored beer was developed. The method is based on the determination of selected carbonyl compounds called as "aging indicators", which are formed during beer aging. The aging indicators were determined using GC-MS after precolumn derivatization with O-(2,3,4,5,6-pentaflourobenzyl)hydroxylamine hydrochloride, and their profile was correlated with the development of old flavor evolving under defined conditions (temperature, time) using both a mathematical and statistical apparatus. Three approaches, including calculation from regression graph, multiple linear regression, and neural networks, were employed. The ultimate uncertainty of the method ranged from 3.0 to 11.0 °C depending on the approach used. Furthermore, the assay was extended to include prediction of beer tendency to sensory aging from freshly bottled beer.

Natural language processing in an intelligent writing strategy tutoring system.

PubMed

McNamara, Danielle S; Crossley, Scott A; Roscoe, Rod

2013-06-01

The Writing Pal is an intelligent tutoring system that provides writing strategy training. A large part of its artificial intelligence resides in the natural language processing algorithms to assess essay quality and guide feedback to students. Because writing is often highly nuanced and subjective, the development of these algorithms must consider a broad array of linguistic, rhetorical, and contextual features. This study assesses the potential for computational indices to predict human ratings of essay quality. Past studies have demonstrated that linguistic indices related to lexical diversity, word frequency, and syntactic complexity are significant predictors of human judgments of essay quality but that indices of cohesion are not. The present study extends prior work by including a larger data sample and an expanded set of indices to assess new lexical, syntactic, cohesion, rhetorical, and reading ease indices. Three models were assessed. The model reported by McNamara, Crossley, and McCarthy (Written Communication 27:57-86, 2010) including three indices of lexical diversity, word frequency, and syntactic complexity accounted for only 6% of the variance in the larger data set. A regression model including the full set of indices examined in prior studies of writing predicted 38% of the variance in human scores of essay quality with 91% adjacent accuracy (i.e., within 1 point). A regression model that also included new indices related to rhetoric and cohesion predicted 44% of the variance with 94% adjacent accuracy. The new indices increased accuracy but, more importantly, afford the means to provide more meaningful feedback in the context of a writing tutoring system.

Issues in the Development of the AIDMAN VISION SCREENER

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-12-01

relationship between the P-T ratio and disease prevalence . As indicated in the bottom portion of Figure 2, the predictive value of any screening test is...absence of disease/injury The Importance of Disease/Injury Prevalence Disease Prevalence - (TP + FN) / TOTAL The specificity and sensitivity The positive...and negative (and their corresponding inverses) predictive values of a given test of a given test are not affected by disease prevalence ! are affected

Improvement and Application of the Softened Strut-and-Tie Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Guoxi; Wang, Debin; Diao, Yuhong; Shang, Huaishuai; Tang, Xiaocheng; Sun, Hai

2017-11-01

Previous experimental researches indicate that reinforced concrete beam-column joints play an important role in the mechanical properties of moment resisting frame structures, so as to require proper design. The aims of this paper are to predict the joint carrying capacity and cracks development theoretically. Thus, a rational model needs to be developed. Based on the former considerations, the softened strut-and-tie model is selected to be introduced and analyzed. Four adjustments including modifications of the depth of the diagonal strut, the inclination angle of diagonal compression strut, the smeared stress of mild steel bars embedded in concrete, as well as the softening coefficient are made. After that, the carrying capacity of beam-column joint and cracks development are predicted using the improved softened strut-and-tie model. Based on the test results, it is not difficult to find that the improved softened strut-and-tie model can be used to predict the joint carrying capacity and cracks development with sufficient accuracy.

Water Pollution Prediction in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area and Countermeasures for Sustainable Development of the Water Environment.

PubMed

Li, Yinghui; Huang, Shuaijin; Qu, Xuexin

2017-10-27

The Three Gorges Project was implemented in 1994 to promote sustainable water resource use and development of the water environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (hereafter "Reservoir Area"). However, massive discharge of wastewater along the river threatens these goals; therefore, this study employs a grey prediction model (GM) to predict the annual emissions of primary pollution sources, including industrial wastewater, domestic wastewater, and oily and domestic wastewater from ships, that influence the Three Gorges Reservoir Area water environment. First, we optimize the initial values of a traditional GM (1,1) model, and build a new GM (1,1) model that minimizes the sum of squares of the relative simulation errors. Second, we use the new GM (1,1) model to simulate historical annual emissions data for the four pollution sources and thereby test the effectiveness of the model. Third, we predict the annual emissions of the four pollution sources in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area for a future period. The prediction results reveal the annual emission trends for the major wastewater types, and indicate the primary sources of water pollution in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. Based on our predictions, we suggest several countermeasures against water pollution and towards the sustainable development of the water environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area.

Enhancing interacting residue prediction with integrated contact matrix prediction in protein-protein interaction.

PubMed

Du, Tianchuan; Liao, Li; Wu, Cathy H

2016-12-01

Identifying the residues in a protein that are involved in protein-protein interaction and identifying the contact matrix for a pair of interacting proteins are two computational tasks at different levels of an in-depth analysis of protein-protein interaction. Various methods for solving these two problems have been reported in the literature. However, the interacting residue prediction and contact matrix prediction were handled by and large independently in those existing methods, though intuitively good prediction of interacting residues will help with predicting the contact matrix. In this work, we developed a novel protein interacting residue prediction system, contact matrix-interaction profile hidden Markov model (CM-ipHMM), with the integration of contact matrix prediction and the ipHMM interaction residue prediction. We propose to leverage what is learned from the contact matrix prediction and utilize the predicted contact matrix as "feedback" to enhance the interaction residue prediction. The CM-ipHMM model showed significant improvement over the previous method that uses the ipHMM for predicting interaction residues only. It indicates that the downstream contact matrix prediction could help the interaction site prediction.

Traveller Information System for Heterogeneous Traffic Condition: A Case Study in Thiruvananthapuram City, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satyakumar, M.; Anil, R.; Sreeja, G. S.

2017-12-01

Traffic in Kerala has been growing at a rate of 10-11% every year, resulting severe congestion especially in urban areas. Because of the limitation of spaces it is not always possible to construct new roads. Road users rely on travel time information for journey planning and route choice decisions, while road system managers are increasingly viewing travel time as an important network performance indicator. More recently Advanced Traveler Information Systems (ATIS) are being developed to provide real-time information to roadway users. For ATIS various methodologies have been developed for dynamic travel time prediction. For this work the Kalman Filter Algorithm was selected for dynamic travel time prediction of different modes. The travel time data collected using handheld GPS device were used for prediction. Congestion Index were calculated and Range of CI values were determined according to the percentage speed drop. After prediction using Kalman Filter, the predicted values along with the GPS data was integrated to GIS and using Network Analysis of ArcGIS the offline route navigation guide was prepared. Using this database a program for route navigation based on travel time was developed. This system will help the travelers with pre-trip information.

Risk Prediction Models for Acute Kidney Injury in Critically Ill Patients: Opus in Progressu.

PubMed

Neyra, Javier A; Leaf, David E

2018-05-31

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a complex systemic syndrome associated with high morbidity and mortality. Among critically ill patients admitted to intensive care units (ICUs), the incidence of AKI is as high as 50% and is associated with dismal outcomes. Thus, the development and validation of clinical risk prediction tools that accurately identify patients at high risk for AKI in the ICU is of paramount importance. We provide a comprehensive review of 3 clinical risk prediction tools that have been developed for incident AKI occurring in the first few hours or days following admission to the ICU. We found substantial heterogeneity among the clinical variables that were examined and included as significant predictors of AKI in the final models. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves was ∼0.8 for all 3 models, indicating satisfactory model performance, though positive predictive values ranged from only 23 to 38%. Hence, further research is needed to develop more accurate and reproducible clinical risk prediction tools. Strategies for improved assessment of AKI susceptibility in the ICU include the incorporation of dynamic (time-varying) clinical parameters, as well as biomarker, functional, imaging, and genomic data. © 2018 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Deriving common comorbidity indices from the MedDRA classification and exploring their performance on key outcomes in patients with rheumatoid arthritis.

PubMed

Putrik, Polina; Ramiro, Sofia; Lie, Elisabeth; Michaud, Kaleb; Kvamme, Maria K; Keszei, Andras P; Kvien, Tore K; Uhlig, Till; Boonen, Annelies

2018-03-01

To develop algorithms for calculating the Rheumatic Diseases Comorbidity Index (RDCI), Charlson-Deyo Index (CDI) and Functional Comorbidity Index (FCI) from the Medical Dictionary for Regulatory Activities (MedDRA), and to assess how these MedDRA-derived indices predict clinical outcomes, utility and health resource utilization (HRU). Two independent researchers linked the preferred terms of the MedDRA classification into the conditions included in the RDCI, the CDI and the FCI. Next, using data from the Norwegian Register-DMARD study (a register of patients with inflammatory joint diseases treated with DMARDs), the explanatory value of these indices was studied in models adjusted for age, gender and DAS28. Model fit statistics were compared in generalized estimating equation (prediction of outcome over time) models using as outcomes: modified HAQ, HAQ, physical and mental component summary of SF-36, SF6D and non-RA related HRU. Among 4126 patients with RA [72% female, mean (s.d.) age 56 (14) years], median (interquartile range) of RDCI at baseline was 0.0 (1.0) [range 0-6], CDI 0.0 (0.0) [0-7] and FCI 0.0 (1.0) [0-6]. All the comorbidity indices were associated with each outcome, and differences in their performance were moderate. The RDCI and FCI performed better on clinical outcomes: modified HAQ and HAQ, hospitalization, physical and mental component summary, and SF6D. Any non-RA related HRU was best predicted by RDCI followed by CDI. An algorithm is now available to compute three commonly used comorbidity indices from MedDRA classification. Indices performed comparably well in predicting a variety of outcomes, with the CDI performing slightly worse when predicting outcomes reflecting functioning and health. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

Wind shear and wet and dry thermodynamic indices as predictors of thunderstorm motion and severity and application to the AVE 4 experimental data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Connell, J. R.; Ey, L.

1977-01-01

Two types of parameters are computed and mapped for use in assessing their individual merits as predictors of occurrence and severity of thunderstorms. The first group is comprised of equivalent potential temperature, potential temperature, water vapor mixing ratio, and wind speed. Equivalent potential temperature maxima and strong gradients of equivalent potential temperature at the surface correlate well with regions of thunderstorm activity. The second type, comprised of the energy index, shear index, and energy shear index, incorporates some model dynamics of thunderstorms, including nonthermodynamic forcing. The energy shear index is found to improve prediction of tornadic and high-wind situations slightly better than other indices. It is concluded that further development and refinement of nonthermodynamic aspects of predictive indices are definitely warranted.

Measurements and Predictions for a Distributed Exhaust Nozzle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kinzie, Kevin W.; Brown, Martha C.; Schein, David B.; Solomon, W. David, Jr.

2001-01-01

The acoustic and aerodynamic performance characteristics of a distributed exhaust nozzle (DEN) design concept were evaluated experimentally and analytically with the purpose of developing a design methodology for developing future DEN technology. Aerodynamic and acoustic measurements were made to evaluate the DEN performance and the CFD design tool. While the CFD approach did provide an excellent prediction of the flowfield and aerodynamic performance characteristics of the DEN and 2D reference nozzle, the measured acoustic suppression potential of this particular DEN was low. The measurements and predictions indicated that the mini-exhaust jets comprising the distributed exhaust coalesced back into a single stream jet very shortly after leaving the nozzles. Even so, the database provided here will be useful for future distributed exhaust designs with greater noise reduction and aerodynamic performance potential.

Modeling of surface tension effects in venturi scrubbing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ott, Robert M.; Wu, Tatsu K. L.; Crowder, Jerry W.

A modified model of venturi scrubber performance has been developed that addresses two effects of liquid surface tension: its effect on droplet size and its effect on particle penetration into the droplet. The predictions of the model indicate that, in general, collection efficiency increases with a decrease in liquid surface tension, but the range over which this increase is significant depends on the particle size and on the scrubber operating parameters. The predictions further indicate that the increases in collection efficiency are almost totally due to the effect of liquid surface tension on the mean droplet size, and that the collection efficiency is not significantly affected by the ability of the particle to penetrate the droplet.

Energy-confinement scaling for high-beta plasmas in the W7-AS stellarator.

PubMed

Preuss, R; Dinklage, A; Weller, A

2007-12-14

High-beta energy-confinement data are subjected to comparisons of scaling invariant, first-principles physical models. The models differ in the inclusion of basic equations indicating the nature of transport. The result for high-beta data of the W7-AS stellarator is that global transport is described best with a collisional high-beta model, which is different from previous outcomes for low-beta data. Model predictive calculations indicate the validation of energy-confinement prediction with respect to plasma beta and collisionality nu*. The finding of different transport behaviors in distinct beta regimes is important for the development of fusion energy based on magnetic confinement and for the assessment of different confinement concepts.

Up with Emotional Health.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pool, Carolyn R.

1997-01-01

Daniel Goleman, author of the bestseller "Emotional Intelligence," spoke at the Association for Supervision and Curriculum Development annual conference about children's declining emotional health indicators. He noted that emotional well-being predicts success in academic achievement, employment, marriage, and physical health; and that…

Improved Geothermometry Through Multivariate Reaction-path Modeling and Evaluation of Geomicrobiological Influences on Geochemical Temperature Indicators: Final Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mattson, Earl; Smith, Robert; Fujita, Yoshiko

2015-03-01

The project was aimed at demonstrating that the geothermometric predictions can be improved through the application of multi-element reaction path modeling that accounts for lithologic and tectonic settings, while also accounting for biological influences on geochemical temperature indicators. The limited utilization of chemical signatures by individual traditional geothermometer in the development of reservoir temperature estimates may have been constraining their reliability for evaluation of potential geothermal resources. This project, however, was intended to build a geothermometry tool which can integrate multi-component reaction path modeling with process-optimization capability that can be applied to dilute, low-temperature water samples to consistently predict reservoirmore » temperature within ±30 °C. The project was also intended to evaluate the extent to which microbiological processes can modulate the geochemical signals in some thermal waters and influence the geothermometric predictions.« less

Detecting Human Hydrologic Alteration from Diversion Hydropower Requires Universal Flow Prediction Tools: A Proposed Framework for Flow Prediction in Poorly-gauged, Regulated Rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kibler, K. M.; Alipour, M.

2016-12-01

Achieving the universal energy access Sustainable Development Goal will require great investment in renewable energy infrastructure in the developing world. Much growth in the renewable sector will come from new hydropower projects, including small and diversion hydropower in remote and mountainous regions. Yet, human impacts to hydrological systems from diversion hydropower are poorly described. Diversion hydropower is often implemented in ungauged rivers, thus detection of impact requires flow analysis tools suited to prediction in poorly-gauged and human-altered catchments. We conduct a comprehensive analysis of hydrologic alteration in 32 rivers developed with diversion hydropower in southwestern China. As flow data are sparse, we devise an approach for estimating streamflow during pre- and post-development periods, drawing upon a decade of research into prediction in ungauged basins. We apply a rainfall-runoff model, parameterized and forced exclusively with global-scale data, in hydrologically-similar gauged and ungauged catchments. Uncertain "soft" data are incorporated through fuzzy numbers and confidence-based weighting, and a multi-criteria objective function is applied to evaluate model performance. Testing indicates that the proposed framework returns superior performance (NSE = 0.77) as compared to models parameterized by rote calibration (NSE = 0.62). Confident that the models are providing `the right answer for the right reasons', our analysis of hydrologic alteration based on simulated flows indicates statistically significant hydrologic effects of diversion hydropower across many rivers. Mean annual flows, 7-day minimum and 7-day maximum flows decreased. Frequency and duration of flow exceeding Q25 decreased while duration of flows sustained below the Q75 increased substantially. Hydrograph rise and fall rates and flow constancy increased. The proposed methodology may be applied to improve diversion hydropower design in data-limited regions.

Free energy minimization to predict RNA secondary structures and computational RNA design.

PubMed

Churkin, Alexander; Weinbrand, Lina; Barash, Danny

2015-01-01

Determining the RNA secondary structure from sequence data by computational predictions is a long-standing problem. Its solution has been approached in two distinctive ways. If a multiple sequence alignment of a collection of homologous sequences is available, the comparative method uses phylogeny to determine conserved base pairs that are more likely to form as a result of billions of years of evolution than by chance. In the case of single sequences, recursive algorithms that compute free energy structures by using empirically derived energy parameters have been developed. This latter approach of RNA folding prediction by energy minimization is widely used to predict RNA secondary structure from sequence. For a significant number of RNA molecules, the secondary structure of the RNA molecule is indicative of its function and its computational prediction by minimizing its free energy is important for its functional analysis. A general method for free energy minimization to predict RNA secondary structures is dynamic programming, although other optimization methods have been developed as well along with empirically derived energy parameters. In this chapter, we introduce and illustrate by examples the approach of free energy minimization to predict RNA secondary structures.

An empirical model for prediction of household solid waste generation rate - A case study of Dhanbad, India.

PubMed

Kumar, Atul; Samadder, S R

2017-10-01

Accurate prediction of the quantity of household solid waste generation is very much essential for effective management of municipal solid waste (MSW). In actual practice, modelling methods are often found useful for precise prediction of MSW generation rate. In this study, two models have been proposed that established the relationships between the household solid waste generation rate and the socioeconomic parameters, such as household size, total family income, education, occupation and fuel used in the kitchen. Multiple linear regression technique was applied to develop the two models, one for the prediction of biodegradable MSW generation rate and the other for non-biodegradable MSW generation rate for individual households of the city Dhanbad, India. The results of the two models showed that the coefficient of determinations (R 2 ) were 0.782 for biodegradable waste generation rate and 0.676 for non-biodegradable waste generation rate using the selected independent variables. The accuracy tests of the developed models showed convincing results, as the predicted values were very close to the observed values. Validation of the developed models with a new set of data indicated a good fit for actual prediction purpose with predicted R 2 values of 0.76 and 0.64 for biodegradable and non-biodegradable MSW generation rate respectively. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting Barrett's Esophagus in Families: An Esophagus Translational Research Network (BETRNet) Model Fitting Clinical Data to a Familial Paradigm.

PubMed

Sun, Xiangqing; Elston, Robert C; Barnholtz-Sloan, Jill S; Falk, Gary W; Grady, William M; Faulx, Ashley; Mittal, Sumeet K; Canto, Marcia; Shaheen, Nicholas J; Wang, Jean S; Iyer, Prasad G; Abrams, Julian A; Tian, Ye D; Willis, Joseph E; Guda, Kishore; Markowitz, Sanford D; Chandar, Apoorva; Warfe, James M; Brock, Wendy; Chak, Amitabh

2016-05-01

Barrett's esophagus is often asymptomatic and only a small portion of Barrett's esophagus patients are currently diagnosed and under surveillance. Therefore, it is important to develop risk prediction models to identify high-risk individuals with Barrett's esophagus. Familial aggregation of Barrett's esophagus and esophageal adenocarcinoma, and the increased risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma for individuals with a family history, raise the necessity of including genetic factors in the prediction model. Methods to determine risk prediction models using both risk covariates and ascertained family data are not well developed. We developed a Barrett's Esophagus Translational Research Network (BETRNet) risk prediction model from 787 singly ascertained Barrett's esophagus pedigrees and 92 multiplex Barrett's esophagus pedigrees, fitting a multivariate logistic model that incorporates family history and clinical risk factors. The eight risk factors, age, sex, education level, parental status, smoking, heartburn frequency, regurgitation frequency, and use of acid suppressant, were included in the model. The prediction accuracy was evaluated on the training dataset and an independent validation dataset of 643 multiplex Barrett's esophagus pedigrees. Our results indicate family information helps to predict Barrett's esophagus risk, and predicting in families improves both prediction calibration and discrimination accuracy. Our model can predict Barrett's esophagus risk for anyone with family members known to have, or not have, had Barrett's esophagus. It can predict risk for unrelated individuals without knowing any relatives' information. Our prediction model will shed light on effectively identifying high-risk individuals for Barrett's esophagus screening and surveillance, consequently allowing intervention at an early stage, and reducing mortality from esophageal adenocarcinoma. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 25(5); 727-35. ©2016 AACR. ©2016 American Association for Cancer Research.

Summary of recent NASA propeller research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mikkelson, D. C.; Mitchell, G. A.; Bober, L. J.

1984-01-01

Advanced high-speed propellers offer large performance improvements for aircraft that cruise in the Mach 0.7 to 0.8 speed regime. At these speeds, studies indicate that there is a 15 to near 40 percent block fuel savings and associated operating cost benefits for advanced turboprops compared to equivalent technology turbofan powered aircraft. Recent wind tunnel results for five eight to ten blade advanced models are compared with analytical predictions. Test results show that blade sweep was important in achieving net efficiencies near 80 percent at Mach 0.8 and reducing nearfield cruise noise by about 6 dB. Lifting line and lifting surface aerodynamic analysis codes are under development and some results are compared with propeller force and probe data. Also, analytical predictions are compared with some initial laser velocimeter measurements of the flow field velocities of an eightbladed 45 swept propeller. Experimental aeroelastic results indicate that cascade effects and blade sweep strongly affect propeller aeroelastic characteristics. Comparisons of propeller near-field noise data with linear acoustic theory indicate that the theory adequately predicts near-field noise for subsonic tip speeds but overpredicts the noise for supersonic tip speeds.

Summary of recent NASA propeller research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mikkelson, D. C.; Mitchell, G. A.; Bober, L. J.

1985-01-01

Advanced high speed propellers offer large performance improvements for aircraft that cruise in the Mach 0.7 to 0.8 speed regime. At these speeds, studies indicate that there is a 15 to near 40 percent block fuel savings and associated operating cost benefits for advanced turboprops compared to equivalent technology turbofan powered aircraft. Recent wind tunnel results for five eight to ten blade advanced models are compared with analytical predictions. Test results show that blade sweep was important in achieving net efficiencies near 80 percent at Mach 0.8 and reducing nearfield cruise noise about 6 dB. Lifting line and lifting surface aerodynamic analysis codes are under development and some results are compared with propeller force and probe data. Also, analytical predictions are compared with some initial laser velocimeter measurements of the flow field velocities of an eight bladed 45 swept propeller. Experimental aeroelastic results indicate that cascade effects and blade sweep strongly affect propeller aeroelastic characteristics. Comparisons of propeller nearfield noise data with linear acoustic theory indicate that the theory adequately predicts nearfield noise for subsonic tip speeds, but overpredicts the noise for supersonic tip speeds.

In-vivo detectability index: development and validation of an automated methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Taylor Brunton; Solomon, Justin; Samei, Ehsan

2017-03-01

The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a method to estimate patient-specific detectability indices directly from patients' CT images (i.e., "in vivo"). The method works by automatically extracting noise (NPS) and resolution (MTF) properties from each patient's CT series based on previously validated techniques. Patient images are thresholded into skin-air interfaces to form edge-spread functions, which are further binned, differentiated, and Fourier transformed to form the MTF. The NPS is likewise estimated from uniform areas of the image. These are combined with assumed task functions (reference function: 10 mm disk lesion with contrast of -15 HU) to compute detectability indices for a non-prewhitening matched filter model observer predicting observer performance. The results were compared to those from a previous human detection study on 105 subtle, hypo-attenuating liver lesions, using a two-alternative-forcedchoice (2AFC) method, over 6 dose levels using 16 readers. The in vivo detectability indices estimated for all patient images were compared to binary 2AFC outcomes with a generalized linear mixed-effects statistical model (Probit link function, linear terms only, no interactions, random term for readers). The model showed that the in vivo detectability indices were strongly predictive of 2AFC outcomes (P < 0.05). A linear comparison between the human detection accuracy and model-predicted detection accuracy (for like conditions) resulted in Pearson and Spearman correlations coefficients of 0.86 and 0.87, respectively. These data provide evidence that the in vivo detectability index could potentially be used to automatically estimate and track image quality in a clinical operation.

Efficacy of duplex ultrasound surveillance after infrainguinal vein bypass may be enhanced by identification of characteristics predictive of graft stenosis development.

PubMed

Tinder, Chelsey N; Chavanpun, Joe P; Bandyk, Dennis F; Armstrong, Paul A; Back, Martin R; Johnson, Brad L; Shames, Murray L

2008-09-01

Controversy regarding the efficacy of duplex ultrasound surveillance after infrainguinal vein bypass led to an analysis of patient and bypass graft characteristics predictive for development of graft stenosis and a decision of secondary intervention. Retrospective analysis of a contemporary, consecutive series of 353 clinically successful infrainguinal vein bypasses performed in 329 patients for critical (n = 284; 80%) or noncritical (n = 69; 20%) limb ischemia enrolled in a surveillance program to identify and repair duplex-detected graft stenosis. Variables correlated with graft stenosis and bypass repair included: procedure indication, conduit type (saphenous vs nonsaphenous vein; reversed vs nonreversed orientation), prior bypass graft failure, postoperative ankle-brachial index (ABI) < 0.85, and interpretation of the first duplex surveillance study as "normal" or "abnormal" based on peak systolic velocity (PSV) and velocity ratio (Vr) criteria. Overall, 126 (36%) of the 353 infrainguinal bypasses had 174 secondary interventions (endovascular, 100; surgery, 74) based on duplex surveillance; resulting in 3-year Kaplan-Meier primary (46%), assisted-primary (80%), and secondary (81%) patency rates. Characteristics predictive of duplex-detected stenosis leading to intervention (PSV: 443 +/- 94 cm/s; Vr: 8.6 +/- 9) were: "abnormal" initial duplex testing indicating moderate (PSV: 180-300 cm/s, Vr: 2-3.5) stenosis (P < .0001), non-single segment saphenous vein conduit (P < .01), warfarin drug therapy (P < .01), and redo bypass grafting (P < .001). Procedure indication, postoperative ABI level, statin drug therapy, and vein conduit orientation were not predictive of graft revision. The natural history of 141 (40%) bypasses with an abnormal first duplex scan differed from "normal" grafts by more frequent (51% vs 24%, P < .001) and earlier (7 months vs 11 months) graft revision for severe stenosis and a lower 3-year assisted primary patency (68% vs 87%; P < .001). In 52 (15%) limbs, the bypass graft failed and 20 (6%) limbs required amputation. The efficacy of duplex surveillance after infrainguinal vein bypass may be enhanced by modifying testing protocols, eg, rigorous surveillance for "higher risk" bypasses, based on the initial duplex scan results and other characteristics (warfarin therapy, non- single segment saphenous vein conduit, redo bypass) predictive for stenosis development.

Probabilistic models for the prediction of target growth interfaces of Listeria monocytogenes on ham and turkey breast products.

PubMed

Yoon, Yohan; Geornaras, Ifigenia; Scanga, John A; Belk, Keith E; Smith, Gary C; Kendall, Patricia A; Sofos, John N

2011-08-01

This study developed growth/no growth models for predicting growth boundaries of Listeria monocytogenes on ready-to-eat cured ham and uncured turkey breast slices as a function of lactic acid concentration (0% to 4%), dipping time (0 to 4 min), and storage temperature (4 to 10 °C). A 10-strain composite of L. monocytogenes was inoculated (2 to 3 log CFU/cm²) on slices, followed by dipping into lactic acid and storage in vacuum packages for up to 30 d. Total bacterial (tryptic soy agar plus 0.6% yeast extract) and L. monocytogenes (PALCAM agar) populations were determined on day 0 and at the endpoint of storage. The combinations of parameters that allowed increases in cell counts of L. monocytogenes of at least l log CFU/cm² were assigned the value of 1, while those limiting growth to <1 log CFU/cm² were given the value of 0. The binary data were used in logistic regression analysis for development of models to predict boundaries between growth and no growth of the pathogen at desired probabilities. Indices of model performance and validation with limited available data indicated that the models developed had acceptable goodness of fit. Thus, the described procedures using bacterial growth data from studies with food products may be appropriate in developing growth/no growth models to predict growth and to select lactic acid concentrations and dipping times for control of L. monocytogenes. The models developed in this study may be useful in selecting lactic acid concentrations and dipping times to control growth of Listeria monocytogenes on cured ham and uncured turkey breast during product storage, and in determining probabilities of growth under selected conditions. The modeling procedures followed may also be used for application in model development for other products, conditions, or pathogens. © 2011 Institute of Food Technologists®

Prediction of light aircraft interior noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Howlett, J. T.; Morales, D. A.

1976-01-01

At the present time, predictions of aircraft interior noise depend heavily on empirical correction factors derived from previous flight measurements. However, to design for acceptable interior noise levels and to optimize acoustic treatments, analytical techniques which do not depend on empirical data are needed. This paper describes a computerized interior noise prediction method for light aircraft. An existing analytical program (developed for commercial jets by Cockburn and Jolly in 1968) forms the basis of some modal analysis work which is described. The accuracy of this modal analysis technique for predicting low-frequency coupled acoustic-structural natural frequencies is discussed along with trends indicating the effects of varying parameters such as fuselage length and diameter, structural stiffness, and interior acoustic absorption.

9.4 COMPLEX SYSTEM THEORY AND THE TRANSDIAGNOSTIC USE OF EARLY WARNING SIGNALS TO FORESEE THE TYPE OF FUTURE TRANSITIONS IN SYMPTOMS

PubMed Central

Wichers, Marieke; Schreuder, Marieke; Hartman, Catharina; Wigman, Hanneke

2018-01-01

Abstract Background Recently, we showed that assumptions from complex system theory seem applicable in the field of psychiatry. This means that indicators of critical slowing down in the system signal the risk for a critical transition in the near future. In the current study we wanted to explore whether the principle of critical slowing down may also be informative to anticipate on the type of symptoms that individuals are most likely to develop. This is relevant as it may lead to personalized prediction of risk of whether adolescents with mixed complaints are most likely to develop either depression, anxiety, somatic or psychotic symptoms in the near future. For example, we hypothesized that critical slowing down in feeling ‘suspicious’ more strongly indicates risk for a future transition to psychotic symptoms, while critical slowing down in feeling ‘down’ more strongly indicates risk for a transition to depressive symptoms. Methods We examined this in a population of adolescents (most between 15 and 18 years) as adolescents are an at-risk group for the development of psychopathology. At baseline experience sampling was performed for 6 days, 10 measurements a day. Affect items were used to assess autocorrelation as an indicator of ‘critical slowing down’ of the system. At baseline and follow-up SCL-90 questionnaires were administered. In total, 147 adolescents participated both in baseline and follow-up measures and showed increases in at least one of the defined symptom dimensions. We examined whether autocorrelation was positively associated with the size of symptom transition and whether different type of transitions (in depression, anxiety etc.) were differentially predicted by autocorrelations in specific affect states. Results The analyses were done very recently, and findings have not been presented before. We found both shared and specific indicators of risk in the development for transition to various symptom dimensions. First, autocorrelation in ‘feeling suspicious’ appeared to be the strongest signal for all assessed psychopathology dimensions (SCL-90 depression: std beta: 0.185; p <0.001; SCL-90 anxiety: std beta: 0.093; p=0.006; SCL-90 interpersonal sensitivity: std beta: 0.176, p<0.001). Second, we found that the combination of ‘feeling suspicious’ and the affect with the second-highest autocorrelation together predicted the precise type of symptom transition. Thus, the combination of feeling suspicious (std beta: 0.185; p<0.001) and down (std beta: 0.108; p=0.001) predicted larger increases in depressive symptoms one year later on the SCL-90, while the combination of feeling suspicious (std beta: 0.093; p=0.006) with feeling anxious (std beta: 0.086; p=0.014) predicted larger increases in anxiety symptoms a year later on the SCL-90. Discussion These findings support the hypothesis that indicators of slowing down can not only be used to predict risk for a mean level shift in symptoms, but that they can also be informative for the type of symptom transitions at hand. In a next step these findings could be translated to designs measuring personalized early warnings for future direction of symptom shifts, and if successful to clinical implementation of these techniques.

Predicting groundwater redox status on a regional scale using linear discriminant analysis.

PubMed

Close, M E; Abraham, P; Humphries, B; Lilburne, L; Cuthill, T; Wilson, S

2016-08-01

Reducing conditions are necessary for denitrification, thus the groundwater redox status can be used to identify subsurface zones where potentially significant nitrate reduction can occur. Groundwater chemistry in two contrasting regions of New Zealand was classified with respect to redox status and related to mappable factors, such as geology, topography and soil characteristics using discriminant analysis. Redox assignment was carried out for water sampled from 568 and 2223 wells in the Waikato and Canterbury regions, respectively. For the Waikato region 64% of wells sampled indicated oxic conditions in the water; 18% indicated reduced conditions and 18% had attributes indicating both reducing and oxic conditions termed "mixed". In Canterbury 84% of wells indicated oxic conditions; 10% were mixed; and only 5% indicated reduced conditions. The analysis was performed over three different well depths, <25m, 25 to 100 and >100m. For both regions, the percentage of oxidised groundwater decreased with increasing well depth. Linear discriminant analysis was used to develop models to differentiate between the three redox states. Models were derived for each depth and region using 67% of the data, and then subsequently validated on the remaining 33%. The average agreement between predicted and measured redox status was 63% and 70% for the Waikato and Canterbury regions, respectively. The models were incorporated into GIS and the prediction of redox status was extended over the whole region, excluding mountainous land. This knowledge improves spatial prediction of reduced groundwater zones, and therefore, when combined with groundwater flow paths, improves estimates of denitrification. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development and evaluation of clear-water pier and contraction scour envelope curves in the Coastal Plain and Piedmont Provinces of South Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Benedict, Stephen T.; Caldwell, Andral W.

2016-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the South Carolina Department of Transportation collected clear-water pier- and contraction-scour data at 116 bridges in the Coastal Plain and Piedmont Physiographic Provinces of South Carolina. Pier-scour depths collected in both provinces ranged from 0 to 8.0 feet. Contraction-scour depths collected in the Coastal Plain ranged from 0 to 3.9 feet. Using hydraulic data estimated with a one-dimensional flow model, predicted clear-water scour depths were computed with scour equations from the Federal Highway Administration Hydraulic Engineering Circular 18 and compared with measured scour. This comparison indicated that predicted clear-water scour depths, in general, exceeded measured scour depths and at times were excessive. Predicted clear-water contraction scour, however, was underpredicted approximately 30 percent of the time by as much as 7.1 feet. The investigation focused on clear-water pier scour, comparing trends in the laboratory and field data. This comparison indicated that the range of dimensionless variables (relative depth, flow intensity, relative grain size) used in laboratory investigations of pier scour, were similar to the range for field data in South Carolina, further indicating that laboratory relations may have some applicability to field conditions in South Carolina. Variables determined to be important in developing pier scour in laboratory studies were investigated to understand their influence on the South Carolina field data, and many of these variables appeared to be insignificant under field conditions in South Carolina. The strongest explanatory variables were pier width and approach velocity. Envelope curves developed from the field data are useful tools for evaluating reasonable ranges of clear-water pier and contraction scour in South Carolina. A modified version of the Hydraulic Engineering Circular 18 pier-scour equation also was developed as a tool for evaluating clearwater pier scour. The envelope curves and modified equation offer an improvement over the current methods for predicting clear-water scour in South Carolina. Data from this study were compiled into a database that includes photographs, measured scour depths, predicted scour depths, limited basin characteristics, limited soil data, and modeled hydraulic data. The South Carolina database can be used to compare studied sites with unstudied sites to evaluate the potential for scour at the unstudied sites. In addition, the database can be used to evaluate the performance of various methods for predicting clear-water pier and contraction scour.

An empirical propellant response function for combustion stability predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hessler, R. O.

1980-01-01

An empirical response function model was developed for ammonium perchlorate propellants to supplant T-burner testing at the preliminary design stage. The model was developed by fitting a limited T-burner data base, in terms of oxidizer size and concentration, to an analytical two parameter response function expression. Multiple peaks are predicted, but the primary effect is of a single peak for most formulations, with notable bulges for the various AP size fractions. The model was extended to velocity coupling with the assumption that dynamic response was controlled primarily by the solid phase described by the two parameter model. The magnitude of velocity coupling was then scaled using an erosive burning law. Routine use of the model for stability predictions on a number of propulsion units indicates that the model tends to overpredict propellant response. It is concluded that the model represents a generally conservative prediction tool, suited especially for the preliminary design stage when T-burner data may not be readily available. The model work included development of a rigorous summation technique for pseudopropellant properties and of a concept for modeling ordered packing of particulates.

Developing Health-Related Indicators of Climate Change: Australian Stakeholder Perspectives.

PubMed

Navi, Maryam; Hansen, Alana; Nitschke, Monika; Hanson-Easey, Scott; Pisaniello, Dino

2017-05-22

Climate-related health indicators are potentially useful for tracking and predicting the adverse public health effects of climate change, identifying vulnerable populations, and monitoring interventions. However, there is a need to understand stakeholders' perspectives on the identification, development, and utility of such indicators. A qualitative approach was used, comprising semi-structured interviews with key informants and service providers from government and non-government stakeholder organizations in South Australia. Stakeholders saw a need for indicators that could enable the monitoring of health impacts and time trends, vulnerability to climate change, and those which could also be used as communication tools. Four key criteria for utility were identified, namely robust and credible indicators, specificity, data availability, and being able to be spatially represented. The variability of risk factors in different regions, lack of resources, and data and methodological issues were identified as the main barriers to indicator development. This study demonstrates a high level of stakeholder awareness of the health impacts of climate change, and the need for indicators that can inform policy makers regarding interventions.

Development of fear and guilt in young children: stability over time and relations with psychopathology.

PubMed

Baker, Erika; Baibazarova, Eugenia; Ktistaki, Georgia; Shelton, Katherine H; van Goozen, Stephanie H M

2012-08-01

Extremes in fearful temperament have long been associated with later psychopathology and risk pathways. Whereas fearful children are inhibited and anxious and avoid novel events, fearless individuals are disinhibited and more likely to engage in aggressive behavior. However, very few studies have examined fear in infants from a multimethod and prospective longitudinal perspective. This study had the following objectives: to examine behavioral, maternal reported, and physiological indices of fearful temperament in infancy, together with their relations and stability over time; and to establish whether early indices of fear predict fear later in toddlerhood. We also examined the association between behavioral and physiological measures of fear and guilt and whether fear in infancy predicts guilt in toddlers. Finally, we investigated infant risk factors for later psychopathology. We recorded skin conductance level (SCL) and heart rate (HR) and observed children's responses during a Laboratory Temperament Assessment Battery fear paradigm across the first 3 years of life and during a guilt induction procedure at age 3 (N = 70). The results indicate that different measures of infant fear were associated across time. Observed fearlessness in infancy predicted observed fearlessness and low levels of SCL arousal to fear and guilt in toddlers. Low levels of HR and SCL to fear in infancy predicted low levels of physiological arousal to the same situation and to guilt 2 years later. Fear and guilt were significantly associated across measures. Finally, toddlers with clinically significant internalizing problems at age 3 were already notably more fearful in Year 1 as reflected by their significantly higher HR levels. The results indicated that assessments of children in infancy are predictive of how these children react 2 years later and therefore lend support to the idea that the emotional thermostat is set in the first 3 years of life. They also showed, for the first time, that infant fear is a predictor of guilt, which is an emotion that develops later. The implications of these findings for our understanding of developmental psychopathology are discussed.

Do treatment quality indicators predict cardiovascular outcomes in patients with diabetes?

PubMed

Sidorenkov, Grigory; Voorham, Jaco; de Zeeuw, Dick; Haaijer-Ruskamp, Flora M; Denig, Petra

2013-01-01

Landmark clinical trials have led to optimal treatment recommendations for patients with diabetes. Whether optimal treatment is actually delivered in practice is even more important than the efficacy of the drugs tested in trials. To this end, treatment quality indicators have been developed and tested against intermediate outcomes. No studies have tested whether these treatment quality indicators also predict hard patient outcomes. A cohort study was conducted using data collected from >10.000 diabetes patients in the Groningen Initiative to Analyze Type 2 Treatment (GIANTT) database and Dutch Hospital Data register. Included quality indicators measured glucose-, lipid-, blood pressure- and albuminuria-lowering treatment status and treatment intensification. Hard patient outcome was the composite of cardiovascular events and all-cause death. Associations were tested using Cox regression adjusting for confounding, reporting hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals. Lipid and albuminuria treatment status, but not blood pressure lowering treatment status, were associated with the composite outcome (HR = 0.77, 0.67-0.88; HR = 0.75, 0.59-0.94). Glucose lowering treatment status was associated with the composite outcome only in patients with an elevated HbA1c level (HR = 0.72, 0.56-0.93). Treatment intensification with glucose-lowering but not with lipid-, blood pressure- and albuminuria-lowering drugs was associated with the outcome (HR = 0.73, 0.60-0.89). Treatment quality indicators measuring lipid- and albuminuria-lowering treatment status are valid quality measures, since they predict a lower risk of cardiovascular events and mortality in patients with diabetes. The quality indicators for glucose-lowering treatment should only be used for restricted populations with elevated HbA1c levels. Intriguingly, the tested indicators for blood pressure-lowering treatment did not predict patient outcomes. These results question whether all treatment indicators are valid measures to judge quality of health care and its economics.

Identification and testing of early indicators for N leaching from urine patches.

PubMed

Vogeler, Iris; Cichota, Rogerio; Snow, Val

2013-11-30

Nitrogen leaching from urine patches has been identified as a major source of nitrogen loss under intensive grazing dairy farming. Leaching is notoriously variable, influenced by management, soil type, year-to-year variation in climate and timing and rate of urine depositions. To identify early indicators for the risk of N leaching from urine patches for potential usage in a precision management system, we used the simulation model APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems SIMulator) to produce an extensive N leaching dataset for the Waikato region of New Zealand. In total, nearly forty thousand simulation runs with different combinations of soil type and urine deposition times, in 33 different years, were done. The risk forecasting indicators were chosen based on their practicality: being readily measured on farm (soil water content, temperature and pasture growth) or that could be centrally supplied to farms (such as actual and forecast weather data). The thresholds of the early indicators that are used to forecast a period for high risk of N leaching were determined via classification and regression tree analysis. The most informative factors were soil temperature, pasture dry matter production, and average soil water content in the top soil over the two weeks prior to the urine N application event. Rainfall and air temperature for the two weeks following urine deposition were also important to fine-tune the predictions. The identified early indicators were then tested for their potential to predict the risk of N leaching in two typical soils from the Waikato region in New Zealand. The accuracy of the predictions varied with the number of indicators, the soil type and the risk level, and the number of correct predictions ranged from about 45 to over 90%. Further expansion and fine-tuning of the indicators and the development of a practical N risk tool based on these indicators is needed. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Atmospheric effects of stratospheric aircraft - A status report from NASA's High-Speed Research Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wesoky, Howard L.; Prather, Michael J.

1991-01-01

Studies have indicated that, with sufficient technology development, future high-speed civil transport aircraft could be economically competitive with long-haul subsonic aircraft. However, uncertainty about atmospheric pollution, along with community noise and sonic boom, continues to be a major concern which is being addressed in the planned six-year High-Speed Research Program begun in 1990. Building on NASA's research in atmospheric science and emissions reduction, current analytical predictions indicate that an operating range may exist at altitudes below 20 km (i.e., corresponding to a cruise Mach number of approximately 2.4) where the goal level of 5 gm equivalent NO2 emissions/kg fuel will deplete less than one percent of column ozone. Because it will not be possible to directly measure the impact of an aircraft fleet on the atmosphere, the only means of assessment will be prediction. The process of establishing credibility for the predicted effects will likely be complex and involve continued model development and testing against climatological patterns. In particular, laboratory simulation of heterogeneous chemistry and other effects, and direct measurements of well understood tracers in the troposphere and stratosphere are being used to improve the current models.

SU-E-T-629: Prediction of the ViewRay Radiotherapy Treatment Time for Clinical Logistics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, S; Wooten, H; Wu, Y

Purpose: An algorithm is developed in our clinic, given a new treatment plan, to predict treatment delivery time for radiation therapy (RT) treatments of patients on ViewRay magnetic resonance-image guided radiation therapy (MR-IGRT) delivery system. This algorithm is necessary for managing patient treatment appointments, and is useful as an indicator to assess the treatment plan complexity. Methods: A patient’s total treatment delivery time, not including time required for localization, may be described as the sum of four components: (1) the treatment initialization time; (2) the total beam-on time; (3) the gantry rotation time; and (4) the multileaf collimator (MLC) motionmore » time. Each of the four components is predicted separately. The total beam-on time can be calculated using both the planned beam-on time and the decay-corrected delivery dose rate. To predict the remaining components, we quantitatively analyze the patient treatment delivery record files. The initialization time is demonstrated to be random since it depends on the final gantry angle and MLC leaf positions of the previous treatment. Based on modeling the relationships between the gantry rotation angles and the corresponding rotation time, and between the furthest MLC leaf moving distance and the corresponding MLC motion time, the total delivery time is predicted using linear regression. Results: The proposed algorithm has demonstrated the feasibility of predicting the ViewRay treatment delivery time for any treatment plan of any patient. The average prediction error is 0.89 minutes or 5.34%, and the maximal prediction error is 2.09 minutes or 13.87%. Conclusion: We have developed a treatment delivery time prediction algorithm based on the analysis of previous patients’ treatment delivery records. The accuracy of our prediction is sufficient for guiding and arranging patient treatment appointments on a daily basis. The predicted delivery time could also be used as an indicator to assess the treatment plan complexity. This work was supported by a research grant from Viewray Inc.« less

An Inventory Battery to Predict Navy and Marine Corps Recruiter Performance: Development and Validation

DTIC Science & Technology

1979-05-01

Cross-Validation Strategies to Diferent Sections of the Predictor Batery ..................... 27 Personality Scales . . . . . . . . . . . . 0. . a...he generated several performance indices on the basis of assumptions about the recruiting environment and geographical differences in production

Developing Landscape Level Indicators for Predicting Watershed Condition

EPA Science Inventory

Drainage basins (watersheds) exert a strong influence on the condition of water bodies such as streams and lakes. Watersheds and associated aquatic systems respond differently to stressors (e.g., land use change) or restoration activities depending on the climatic setting, bedroc...

Evidence for maximal acceleration and singularity resolution in covariant loop quantum gravity.

PubMed

Rovelli, Carlo; Vidotto, Francesca

2013-08-30

A simple argument indicates that covariant loop gravity (spin foam theory) predicts a maximal acceleration and hence forbids the development of curvature singularities. This supports the results obtained for cosmology and black holes using canonical methods.

Analysis of hourly crash likelihood using unbalanced panel data mixed logit model and real-time driving environmental big data.

PubMed

Chen, Feng; Chen, Suren; Ma, Xiaoxiang

2018-06-01

Driving environment, including road surface conditions and traffic states, often changes over time and influences crash probability considerably. It becomes stretched for traditional crash frequency models developed in large temporal scales to capture the time-varying characteristics of these factors, which may cause substantial loss of critical driving environmental information on crash prediction. Crash prediction models with refined temporal data (hourly records) are developed to characterize the time-varying nature of these contributing factors. Unbalanced panel data mixed logit models are developed to analyze hourly crash likelihood of highway segments. The refined temporal driving environmental data, including road surface and traffic condition, obtained from the Road Weather Information System (RWIS), are incorporated into the models. Model estimation results indicate that the traffic speed, traffic volume, curvature and chemically wet road surface indicator are better modeled as random parameters. The estimation results of the mixed logit models based on unbalanced panel data show that there are a number of factors related to crash likelihood on I-25. Specifically, weekend indicator, November indicator, low speed limit and long remaining service life of rutting indicator are found to increase crash likelihood, while 5-am indicator and number of merging ramps per lane per mile are found to decrease crash likelihood. The study underscores and confirms the unique and significant impacts on crash imposed by the real-time weather, road surface, and traffic conditions. With the unbalanced panel data structure, the rich information from real-time driving environmental big data can be well incorporated. Copyright © 2018 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of anthropometric indices (body mass index, waist circumference, waist to hip ratio and waist to height ratio) in predicting risk of type II diabetes in the population of Yazd, Iran.

PubMed

Mirzaei, Masoud; Khajeh, Mohammad

2018-04-13

The purpose of this study was to determine the best anthropometric index and calculate the cut-off point for each anthropometric index in predicting the risk of type II diabetes in the population of Yazd city in Iran. The present analytical cross-sectional study was performed using the data from Yazd Health Study (YaHS) with a sample size of 9293. All required data including anthropometric indices BMI, WC, WHR, and WHtR were extracted from the YAHS questionnaire. The ROC curve was employed to compare the predictive power of each anthropometric index in the risk of developing the type II diabetes. WHtR in both genders had better predictive power for the risk of type II diabetes (AUC = 0.692 for males and AUC = 0.708 for females), and BMI showed a weaker predictive power (AUC = 0.603 for males and AUC = 0.632 for females), WC and WHR also revealed similar predictive power in the risk of type II diabetes. The cut-off point of BMI for predicting the risk of diabetes was almost identical in both genders (26.2 in males and 25.9 in females), the cut-off point of WC (91 cm), and WHtR (0.56) in males was lower than in the females (96 cm for WC and 0.605 for WHtR). The cut-off point of WHR in males (0.939) was higher than in females (0.892). The WHtR showed the best predictor of diabetes risk compared to other indices, and the BMI was the weakest predictor of the risk for diabetes. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Glycemic Control Indices and Their Aggregation in the Prediction of Nocturnal Hypoglycemia From Intermittent Blood Glucose Measurements.

PubMed

Sampath, Sivananthan; Tkachenko, Pavlo; Renard, Eric; Pereverzev, Sergei V

2016-11-01

Despite the risk associated with nocturnal hypoglycemia (NH) there are only a few methods aiming at the prediction of such events based on intermittent blood glucose monitoring data. One of the first methods that potentially can be used for NH prediction is based on the low blood glucose index (LBGI) and suggested, for example, in Accu-Chek® Connect as a hypoglycemia risk indicator. On the other hand, nowadays there are other glucose control indices (GCI), which could be used for NH prediction in the same spirit as LBGI. In the present study we propose a general approach of combining NH predictors constructed from different GCI. The approach is based on a recently developed strategy for aggregating ranking algorithms in machine learning. NH predictors have been calibrated and tested on data extracted from clinical trials, performed in EU FP7-funded project DIAdvisor. Then, to show a portability of the method we have tested it on another dataset that was received from EU Horizon 2020-funded project AMMODIT. We exemplify the proposed approach by aggregating NH predictors that have been constructed based on 4 GCI associated with hypoglycemia. Even though these predictors have been preliminary optimized to exhibit better performance on the considered dataset, our aggregation approach allows a further performance improvement. On the dataset, where a portability of the proposed approach has been demonstrated, the aggregating predictor has exhibited the following performance: sensitivity 77%, specificity 83.4%, positive predictive value 80.2%, negative predictive value 80.6%, which is higher than conventionally considered as acceptable. The proposed approach shows potential to be used in telemedicine systems for NH prediction. © 2016 Diabetes Technology Society.

Re-assess Vector Indices Threshold as an Early Warning Tool for Predicting Dengue Epidemic in a Dengue Non-endemic Country

PubMed Central

Hsu, Pi-Shan; Chen, Chaur-Dong; Lian, Ie-Bin; Chao, Day-Yu

2015-01-01

Background Despite dengue dynamics being driven by complex interactions between human hosts, mosquito vectors and viruses that are influenced by climate factors, an operational model that will enable health authorities to anticipate the outbreak risk in a dengue non-endemic area has not been developed. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the temporal relationship between meteorological variables, entomological surveillance indices and confirmed dengue cases; and to establish the threshold for entomological surveillance indices including three mosquito larval indices [Breteau (BI), Container (CI) and House indices (HI)] and one adult index (AI) as an early warning tool for dengue epidemic. Methodology/Principal Findings Epidemiological, entomological and meteorological data were analyzed from 2005 to 2012 in Kaohsiung City, Taiwan. The successive waves of dengue outbreaks with different magnitudes were recorded in Kaohsiung City, and involved a dominant serotype during each epidemic. The annual indigenous dengue cases usually started from May to June and reached a peak in October to November. Vector data from 2005–2012 showed that the peak of the adult mosquito population was followed by a peak in the corresponding dengue activity with a lag period of 1–2 months. Therefore, we focused the analysis on the data from May to December and the high risk district, where the inspection of the immature and mature mosquitoes was carried out on a weekly basis and about 97.9% dengue cases occurred. The two-stage model was utilized here to estimate the risk and time-lag effect of annual dengue outbreaks in Taiwan. First, Poisson regression was used to select the optimal subset of variables and time-lags for predicting the number of dengue cases, and the final results of the multivariate analysis were selected based on the smallest AIC value. Next, each vector index models with selected variables were subjected to multiple logistic regression models to examine the accuracy of predicting the occurrence of dengue cases. The results suggested that Model-AI, BI, CI and HI predicted the occurrence of dengue cases with 83.8, 87.8, 88.3 and 88.4% accuracy, respectively. The predicting threshold based on individual Model-AI, BI, CI and HI was 0.97, 1.16, 1.79 and 0.997, respectively. Conclusion/Significance There was little evidence of quantifiable association among vector indices, meteorological factors and dengue transmission that could reliably be used for outbreak prediction. Our study here provided the proof-of-concept of how to search for the optimal model and determine the threshold for dengue epidemics. Since those factors used for prediction varied, depending on the ecology and herd immunity level under different geological areas, different thresholds may be developed for different countries using a similar structure of the two-stage model. PMID:26366874

[Formulation of combined predictive indicators using logistic regression model in predicting sepsis and prognosis].

PubMed

Duan, Liwei; Zhang, Sheng; Lin, Zhaofen

2017-02-01

To explore the method and performance of using multiple indices to diagnose sepsis and to predict the prognosis of severe ill patients. Critically ill patients at first admission to intensive care unit (ICU) of Changzheng Hospital, Second Military Medical University, from January 2014 to September 2015 were enrolled if the following conditions were satisfied: (1) patients were 18-75 years old; (2) the length of ICU stay was more than 24 hours; (3) All records of the patients were available. Data of the patients was collected by searching the electronic medical record system. Logistic regression model was formulated to create the new combined predictive indicator and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for the new predictive indicator was built. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) for both the new indicator and original ones were compared. The optimal cut-off point was obtained where the Youden index reached the maximum value. Diagnostic parameters such as sensitivity, specificity and predictive accuracy were also calculated for comparison. Finally, individual values were substituted into the equation to test the performance in predicting clinical outcomes. A total of 362 patients (218 males and 144 females) were enrolled in our study and 66 patients died. The average age was (48.3±19.3) years old. (1) For the predictive model only containing categorical covariants [including procalcitonin (PCT), lipopolysaccharide (LPS), infection, white blood cells count (WBC) and fever], increased PCT, increased WBC and fever were demonstrated to be independent risk factors for sepsis in the logistic equation. The AUC for the new combined predictive indicator was higher than that of any other indictor, including PCT, LPS, infection, WBC and fever (0.930 vs. 0.661, 0.503, 0.570, 0.837, 0.800). The optimal cut-off value for the new combined predictive indicator was 0.518. Using the new indicator to diagnose sepsis, the sensitivity, specificity and diagnostic accuracy rate were 78.00%, 93.36% and 87.47%, respectively. One patient was randomly selected, and the clinical data was substituted into the probability equation for prediction. The calculated value was 0.015, which was less than the cut-off value (0.518), indicating that the prognosis was non-sepsis at an accuracy of 87.47%. (2) For the predictive model only containing continuous covariants, the logistic model which combined acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) score and sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score to predict in-hospital death events, both APACHE II score and SOFA score were independent risk factors for death. The AUC for the new predictive indicator was higher than that of APACHE II score and SOFA score (0.834 vs. 0.812, 0.813). The optimal cut-off value for the new combined predictive indicator in predicting in-hospital death events was 0.236, and the corresponding sensitivity, specificity and diagnostic accuracy for the combined predictive indicator were 73.12%, 76.51% and 75.70%, respectively. One patient was randomly selected, and the APACHE II score and SOFA score was substituted into the probability equation for prediction. The calculated value was 0.570, which was higher than the cut-off value (0.236), indicating that the death prognosis at an accuracy of 75.70%. The combined predictive indicator, which is formulated by logistic regression models, is superior to any single indicator in predicting sepsis or in-hospital death events.

A Predictive Statistical Model of Navy Career Enlisted Retention Behavior Utilizing Economic Variables.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-12-01

career retention rates , and to predict future career retention rates in the Navy. The statistical model utilizes economic variables as predictors...The model developed r has a high correlation with Navy career retention rates . The problem of Navy career retention has not been adequately studied, 0D...findings indicate Navy policymakers must be cognizant of the relationships of economic factors to Navy career retention rates . Accrzsiofl ’or NTIS GRA&I

Prediction of chronic post-operative pain: pre-operative DNIC testing identifies patients at risk.

PubMed

Yarnitsky, David; Crispel, Yonathan; Eisenberg, Elon; Granovsky, Yelena; Ben-Nun, Alon; Sprecher, Elliot; Best, Lael-Anson; Granot, Michal

2008-08-15

Surgical and medical procedures, mainly those associated with nerve injuries, may lead to chronic persistent pain. Currently, one cannot predict which patients undergoing such procedures are 'at risk' to develop chronic pain. We hypothesized that the endogenous analgesia system is key to determining the pattern of handling noxious events, and therefore testing diffuse noxious inhibitory control (DNIC) will predict susceptibility to develop chronic post-thoracotomy pain (CPTP). Pre-operative psychophysical tests, including DNIC assessment (pain reduction during exposure to another noxious stimulus at remote body area), were conducted in 62 patients, who were followed 29.0+/-16.9 weeks after thoracotomy. Logistic regression revealed that pre-operatively assessed DNIC efficiency and acute post-operative pain intensity were two independent predictors for CPTP. Efficient DNIC predicted lower risk of CPTP, with OR 0.52 (0.33-0.77 95% CI, p=0.0024), i.e., a 10-point numerical pain scale (NPS) reduction halves the chance to develop chronic pain. Higher acute pain intensity indicated OR of 1.80 (1.28-2.77, p=0.0024) predicting nearly a double chance to develop chronic pain for each 10-point increase. The other psychophysical measures, pain thresholds and supra-threshold pain magnitudes, did not predict CPTP. For prediction of acute post-operative pain intensity, DNIC efficiency was not found significant. Effectiveness of the endogenous analgesia system obtained at a pain-free state, therefore, seems to reflect the individual's ability to tackle noxious events, identifying patients 'at risk' to develop post-intervention chronic pain. Applying this diagnostic approach before procedures that might generate pain may allow individually tailored pain prevention and management, which may substantially reduce suffering.

Harm avoidance and persistence are associated with somatoform disorder psychopathology: A study in Taiwan.

PubMed

Huang, Wei-Lieh; Chen, Tzu-Ting; Chen, I-Ming; Chang, Li-Ren; Lin, Yu-Hsuan; Liao, Shih-Cheng; Gau, Susan Shur-Fen

2016-05-15

Whether personality features affect the development of somatoform disorders and their psychopathologies is an important issue. Aim of this study was to resolve this issue by comparing indicators of psychopathology and personality features in subjects with somatoform disorders and healthy controls. This study recruited 148 subjects with somatoform disorders and 146 healthy controls. The severity of psychopathology was measured with the Patient Health Questionnaire-15 (PHQ-15), Health Anxiety Questionnaire (HAQ), Beck Depression Inventory-II (BDI-II), and Beck Anxiety Inventory (BAI). The Tridimensional Personality Questionnaire (TPQ) was used to assess personality features. Demographic data, psychopathology indicators, and TPQ scores were compared between groups. Correlation and multivariate linear regression analysis were used to identify the personality dimensions or demographic variables associated with psychopathology. The somatoform group had lower novelty seeking (NS) and reward dependence (RD) and higher harm avoidance (HA) and severity of psychopathologies. Multiple regression analysis revealed that fatigability, persistence, gender, and education level were predictive of PHQ-15; HA, educational level, persistence, and dependence were predictive of HAQ; HA, persistence, education level, and NS were predictive of BDII-II; and fatigability, education level, persistence, and anticipatory worry were predictive of BAI. The development of somatoform disorders was associated with fatigability, age, residence location, education level, and attachment. The limitations include heterogeneity of the diagnosis, the high proportion of undifferentiated somatoform disorder, and the cross-sectional study design. HA/fatigability, persistence, and education level are associated with each type of psychopathology. Fatigability is a powerful predictor of somatoform disorder development. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Construction of a model predicting the risk of tube feeding intolerance after gastrectomy for gastric cancer based on 225 cases from a single Chinese center

PubMed Central

Xiaoyong, Wu; Xuzhao, Li; Deliang, Yu; Pengfei, Yu; Zhenning, Hang; Bin, Bai; zhengyan, Li; Fangning, Pang; Shiqi, Wang; Qingchuan, Zhao

2017-01-01

Identifying patients at high risk of tube feeding intolerance (TFI) after gastric cancer surgery may prevent the occurrence of TFI; however, a predictive model is lacking. We therefore analyzed the incidence of TFI and its associated risk factors after gastric cancer surgery in 225 gastric cancer patients divided into without-TFI (n = 114) and with-TFI (n = 111) groups. A total of 49.3% of patients experienced TFI after gastric cancer. Multivariate analysis identified a history of functional constipation (FC), a preoperative American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score of III, a high pain score at 6-hour postoperation, and a high white blood cell (WBC) count on the first day after surgery as independent risk factors for TFI. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.756, with an optimal cut-off value of 0.5410. In order to identify patients at high risk of TFI after gastric cancer surgery, we constructed a predictive nomogram model based on the selected independent risk factors to indicate the probability of developing TFI. Use of our predictive nomogram model in screening, if a probability > 0.5410, indicated a high-risk patients would with a 70.1% likelihood of developing TFI. These high-risk individuals should take measures to prevent TFI before feeding with enteral nutrition. PMID:29245951

Development of a single-frequency bioimpedance prediction equation for fat-free mass in an adult Indigenous Australian population.

PubMed

Hughes, J T; Maple-Brown, L J; Piers, L S; Meerkin, J; O'Dea, K; Ward, L C

2015-01-01

To describe the development of a single-frequency bioimpedance prediction equation for fat-free mass (FFM) suitable for adult Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples with and without diabetes or indicators of chronic kidney disease (CKD). FFM was measured by whole-body dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry in 147 adult Indigenous Australians. Height, weight, body circumference and resistance were also measured. Adults with and without diabetes and indicators of CKD were examined. A random split sample with internal cross-validation approach was used to predict and subsequently validate FFM using resistance, height, weight, age and gender against measured FFM. Among 147 adults with a median body mass index of 31 kg/m(2), the final model of FFM was FFM (kg)=0.432 (height, cm(2)/resistance, ohm)-0.086 (age, years)+0.269 (weight, kg)-6.422 (if female)+16.429. Adjusted R(2) was 0.94 and the root mean square error was 3.33 kg. The concordance was high (rc=0.97) between measured and predicted FFM across a wide range of FFM (31-85 kg). In the context of the high burden of diabetes and CKD among adult Indigenous Australians, this new equation for FFM was both accurate and precise and based on easily acquired variables (height, weight, age, gender and resistance) among a heterogeneous adult cohort.

Modelling of dissolved oxygen content using artificial neural networks: Danube River, North Serbia, case study.

PubMed

Antanasijević, Davor; Pocajt, Viktor; Povrenović, Dragan; Perić-Grujić, Aleksandra; Ristić, Mirjana

2013-12-01

The aims of this study are to create an artificial neural network (ANN) model using non-specific water quality parameters and to examine the accuracy of three different ANN architectures: General Regression Neural Network (GRNN), Backpropagation Neural Network (BPNN) and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), for prediction of dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration in the Danube River. The neural network model has been developed using measured data collected from the Bezdan monitoring station on the Danube River. The input variables used for the ANN model are water flow, temperature, pH and electrical conductivity. The model was trained and validated using available data from 2004 to 2008 and tested using the data from 2009. The order of performance for the created architectures based on their comparison with the test data is RNN > GRNN > BPNN. The ANN results are compared with multiple linear regression (MLR) model using multiple statistical indicators. The comparison of the RNN model with the MLR model indicates that the RNN model performs much better, since all predictions of the RNN model for the test data were within the error of less than ± 10 %. In case of the MLR, only 55 % of predictions were within the error of less than ± 10 %. The developed RNN model can be used as a tool for the prediction of DO in river waters.

Early Adolescents' Emotional Well-Being in the Classroom: The Role of Personal and Contextual Assets.

PubMed

Oberle, Eva

2018-02-01

The objective was to predict early adolescents' emotional well-being from personal and contextual assets in the classroom. Emotional well-being is a key indicator of health. Aligned with the positive youth development (PYD) framework, a supportive classroom environment and positive relationships with teachers and peers were contextual assets in the present study; positive self-concept was a personal asset. The sample was 406 grade 4 to 7 public elementary school students from diverse backgrounds (mean = 11.27 years; SD = 0.89; 50% female). Data were self-, teacher-, and peer-reported. Structural equation modeling (SEM) analyses were used to evaluate model fit and identify significant pathways. SEM indicated a good model fit. Overall, 68% of variability in early adolescents' emotional well-being was explained. Positive self-concept directly predicted emotional well-being. Supportive classroom environment predicted emotional well-being directly and indirectly through increases in positive social relationships and self-concept. Positive social relationships predicted well-being only indirectly through positive self-concept. Contextual and personal assets are central for early adolescents' emotional well-being. The interrelation among assets needs to be considered when understanding, and ultimately promoting students' emotional well-being. The present findings extend previous research and inform school-based intervention and prevention programming and teacher professional development. © 2018, American School Health Association.

Seasonal prediction of East Asian summer rainfall using a multi-model ensemble system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahn, Joong-Bae; Lee, Doo-Young; Yoo, Jin‑Ho

2015-04-01

Using the retrospective forecasts of seven state-of-the-art coupled models and their multi-model ensemble (MME) for boreal summers, the prediction skills of climate models in the western tropical Pacific (WTP) and East Asian region are assessed. The prediction of summer rainfall anomalies in East Asia is difficult, while the WTP has a strong correlation between model prediction and observation. We focus on developing a new approach to further enhance the seasonal prediction skill for summer rainfall in East Asia and investigate the influence of convective activity in the WTP on East Asian summer rainfall. By analyzing the characteristics of the WTP convection, two distinct patterns associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation developing and decaying modes are identified. Based on the multiple linear regression method, the East Asia Rainfall Index (EARI) is developed by using the interannual variability of the normalized Maritime continent-WTP Indices (MPIs), as potentially useful predictors for rainfall prediction over East Asia, obtained from the above two main patterns. For East Asian summer rainfall, the EARI has superior performance to the East Asia summer monsoon index or each MPI. Therefore, the regressed rainfall from EARI also shows a strong relationship with the observed East Asian summer rainfall pattern. In addition, we evaluate the prediction skill of the East Asia reconstructed rainfall obtained by hybrid dynamical-statistical approach using the cross-validated EARI from the individual models and their MME. The results show that the rainfalls reconstructed from simulations capture the general features of observed precipitation in East Asia quite well. This study convincingly demonstrates that rainfall prediction skill is considerably improved by using a hybrid dynamical-statistical approach compared to the dynamical forecast alone. Acknowledgements This work was carried out with the support of Rural Development Administration Cooperative Research Program for Agriculture Science and Technology Development under grant project PJ009353 and Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under grant CATER 2012-3100, Republic of Korea.

[Detection of the main quality indicators in red wine with infrared spectroscopy based on FastICA and neural network].

PubMed

Fang, Li-Min; Lin, Min

2009-08-01

For the rapid detection of the ethanol, pH and rest sugar in red wine, infrared (IR) spectra of 44 wine samples were analyzed. The algorithm of fast independent component analysis (FastICA) was used to decompose the data of IR spectra, and their independent components and the mixing matrix were obtained. Then, the ICA-NNR calibration model with three-level artificial neural network (ANN) structure was built by using back-propagation (BP) algorithm. The models were used to estimate the contents of ethanol, pH and rest sugar in red wine samples for both in calibration set and predicted set. Correlation coefficient (r) of prediction and root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) were used as the evaluation indexes. The results indicate that the r and RMSEP for the prediction of ethanol content, pH and rest sugar content are 0.953, 0.983 and 0.994, and 0.161, 0.017 and 0.181, respectively. The maximum relative deviations between the ICA-NNR method predicted value and referenced value of the 22 samples in predicted set are less than 4%. The results of this paper provide a foundation for the application and further development of IR on-line red wine analyzer.

An index predictive of cognitive outcome in retired professional American Football players with a history of sports concussion.

PubMed

Wright, Mathew J; Woo, Ellen; Birath, J Brandon; Siders, Craig A; Kelly, Daniel F; Wang, Christina; Swerdloff, Ronald; Romero, Elizabeth; Kernan, Claudia; Cantu, Robert C; Guskiewicz, Kevin

2016-01-01

Various concussion characteristics and personal factors are associated with cognitive recovery in athletes. We developed an index based on concussion frequency, severity, and timeframe, as well as cognitive reserve (CR), and we assessed its predictive power regarding cognitive ability in retired professional football players. Data from 40 retired professional American football players were used in the current study. On average, participants had been retired from football for 20 years. Current neuropsychological performances, indicators of CR, concussion history, and play data were used to create an index for predicting cognitive outcome. The sample displayed a range of concussions, concussion severities, seasons played, CR, and cognitive ability. Many of the participants demonstrated cognitive deficits. The index strongly predicted global cognitive ability (R(2) = .31). The index also predicted the number of areas of neuropsychological deficit, which varied as a function of the deficit classification system used (Heaton: R(2) = .15; Wechsler: R(2) = .28). The current study demonstrated that a unique combination of CR, sports concussion, and game-related data can predict cognitive outcomes in participants who had been retired from professional American football for an average of 20 years. Such indices may prove to be useful for clinical decision making and research.

Propeller noise prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zorumski, W. E.

1983-01-01

Analytic propeller noise prediction involves a sequence of computations culminating in the application of acoustic equations. The prediction sequence currently used by NASA in its ANOPP (aircraft noise prediction) program is described. The elements of the sequence are called program modules. The first group of modules analyzes the propeller geometry, the aerodynamics, including both potential and boundary layer flow, the propeller performance, and the surface loading distribution. This group of modules is based entirely on aerodynamic strip theory. The next group of modules deals with the actual noise prediction, based on data from the first group. Deterministic predictions of periodic thickness and loading noise are made using Farassat's time-domain methods. Broadband noise is predicted by the semi-empirical Schlinker-Amiet method. Near-field predictions of fuselage surface pressures include the effects of boundary layer refraction and (for a cylinder) scattering. Far-field predictions include atmospheric and ground effects. Experimental data from subsonic and transonic propellers are compared and NASA's future direction is propeller noise technology development are indicated.

Evaluation and comparison of the ability of online available prediction programs to predict true linear B-cell epitopes.

PubMed

Costa, Juan G; Faccendini, Pablo L; Sferco, Silvano J; Lagier, Claudia M; Marcipar, Iván S

2013-06-01

This work deals with the use of predictors to identify useful B-cell linear epitopes to develop immunoassays. Experimental techniques to meet this goal are quite expensive and time consuming. Therefore, we tested 5 free, online prediction methods (AAPPred, ABCpred, BcePred, BepiPred and Antigenic) widely used for predicting linear epitopes, using the primary structure of the protein as the only input. We chose a set of 65 experimentally well documented epitopes obtained by the most reliable experimental techniques as our true positive set. To compare the quality of the predictor methods we used their positive predictive value (PPV), i.e. the proportion of the predicted epitopes that are true, experimentally confirmed epitopes, in relation to all the epitopes predicted. We conclude that AAPPred and ABCpred yield the best results as compared with the other programs and with a random prediction procedure. Our results also indicate that considering the consensual epitopes predicted by several programs does not improve the PPV.

3D-quantitative structure-activity relationship studies on benzothiadiazepine hydroxamates as inhibitors of tumor necrosis factor-alpha converting enzyme.

PubMed

Murumkar, Prashant R; Giridhar, Rajani; Yadav, Mange Ram

2008-04-01

A set of 29 benzothiadiazepine hydroxamates having selective tumor necrosis factor-alpha converting enzyme inhibitory activity were used to compare the quality and predictive power of 3D-quantitative structure-activity relationship, comparative molecular field analysis, and comparative molecular similarity indices models for the atom-based, centroid/atom-based, data-based, and docked conformer-based alignment. Removal of two outliers from the initial training set of molecules improved the predictivity of models. Among the 3D-quantitative structure-activity relationship models developed using the above four alignments, the database alignment provided the optimal predictive comparative molecular field analysis model for the training set with cross-validated r(2) (q(2)) = 0.510, non-cross-validated r(2) = 0.972, standard error of estimates (s) = 0.098, and F = 215.44 and the optimal comparative molecular similarity indices model with cross-validated r(2) (q(2)) = 0.556, non-cross-validated r(2) = 0.946, standard error of estimates (s) = 0.163, and F = 99.785. These models also showed the best test set prediction for six compounds with predictive r(2) values of 0.460 and 0.535, respectively. The contour maps obtained from 3D-quantitative structure-activity relationship studies were appraised for activity trends for the molecules analyzed. The comparative molecular similarity indices models exhibited good external predictivity as compared with that of comparative molecular field analysis models. The data generated from the present study helped us to further design and report some novel and potent tumor necrosis factor-alpha converting enzyme inhibitors.

Development of Decision Support Formulas for the Prediction of Bladder Outlet Obstruction and Prostatic Surgery in Patients With Lower Urinary Tract Symptom/Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia: Part II, External Validation and Usability Testing of a Smartphone App.

PubMed

Choo, Min Soo; Jeong, Seong Jin; Cho, Sung Yong; Yoo, Changwon; Jeong, Chang Wook; Ku, Ja Hyeon; Oh, Seung-June

2017-04-01

We aimed to externally validate the prediction model we developed for having bladder outlet obstruction (BOO) and requiring prostatic surgery using 2 independent data sets from tertiary referral centers, and also aimed to validate a mobile app for using this model through usability testing. Formulas and nomograms predicting whether a subject has BOO and needs prostatic surgery were validated with an external validation cohort from Seoul National University Bundang Hospital and Seoul Metropolitan Government-Seoul National University Boramae Medical Center between January 2004 and April 2015. A smartphone-based app was developed, and 8 young urologists were enrolled for usability testing to identify any human factor issues of the app. A total of 642 patients were included in the external validation cohort. No significant differences were found in the baseline characteristics of major parameters between the original (n=1,179) and the external validation cohort, except for the maximal flow rate. Predictions of requiring prostatic surgery in the validation cohort showed a sensitivity of 80.6%, a specificity of 73.2%, a positive predictive value of 49.7%, and a negative predictive value of 92.0%, and area under receiver operating curve of 0.84. The calibration plot indicated that the predictions have good correspondence. The decision curve showed also a high net benefit. Similar evaluation results using the external validation cohort were seen in the predictions of having BOO. Overall results of the usability test demonstrated that the app was user-friendly with no major human factor issues. External validation of these newly developed a prediction model demonstrated a moderate level of discrimination, adequate calibration, and high net benefit gains for predicting both having BOO and requiring prostatic surgery. Also a smartphone app implementing the prediction model was user-friendly with no major human factor issue.

Inferring diagnosis and trajectory of wet age-related macular degeneration from OCT imagery of retina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Irvine, John M.; Ghadar, Nastaran; Duncan, Steve; Floyd, David; O'Dowd, David; Lin, Kristie; Chang, Tom

2017-03-01

Quantitative biomarkers for assessing the presence, severity, and progression of age-related macular degeneration (AMD) would benefit research, diagnosis, and treatment. This paper explores development of quantitative biomarkers derived from OCT imagery of the retina. OCT images for approximately 75 patients with Wet AMD, Dry AMD, and no AMD (healthy eyes) were analyzed to identify image features indicative of the patients' conditions. OCT image features provide a statistical characterization of the retina. Healthy eyes exhibit a layered structure, whereas chaotic patterns indicate the deterioration associated with AMD. Our approach uses wavelet and Frangi filtering, combined with statistical features that do not rely on image segmentation, to assess patient conditions. Classification analysis indicates clear separability of Wet AMD from other conditions, including Dry AMD and healthy retinas. The probability of correct classification of was 95.7%, as determined from cross validation. Similar classification analysis predicts the response of Wet AMD patients to treatment, as measured by the Best Corrected Visual Acuity (BCVA). A statistical model predicts BCVA from the imagery features with R2 = 0.846. Initial analysis of OCT imagery indicates that imagery-derived features can provide useful biomarkers for characterization and quantification of AMD: Accurate assessment of Wet AMD compared to other conditions; image-based prediction of outcome for Wet AMD treatment; and features derived from the OCT imagery accurately predict BCVA; unlike many methods in the literature, our techniques do not rely on segmentation of the OCT image. Next steps include larger scale testing and validation.

Predicting East African spring droughts using Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funk, C.; Hoell, A.; Shukla, S.; Bladé, I.; Liebmann, B.; Roberts, J. B.; Robertson, F. R.; Husak, G.

2014-12-01

In eastern East Africa (the southern Ethiopia, eastern Kenya and southern Somalia region), poor boreal spring (long wet season) rains in 1999, 2000, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2011 contributed to severe food insecurity and high levels of malnutrition. Predicting rainfall deficits in this region on seasonal and decadal time frames can help decision makers implement disaster risk reduction measures while guiding climate-smart adaptation and agricultural development. Building on recent research that links more frequent East African droughts to a stronger Walker circulation, resulting from warming in the Indo-Pacific warm pool and an increased east-to-west sea surface temperature (SST) gradient in the western Pacific, we show that the two dominant modes of East African boreal spring rainfall variability are tied to SST fluctuations in the western central Pacific and central Indian Ocean, respectively. Variations in these two rainfall modes can thus be predicted using two SST indices - the western Pacific gradient (WPG) and central Indian Ocean index (CIO), with our statistical forecasts exhibiting reasonable cross-validated skill (rcv ≈ 0.6). In contrast, the current generation of coupled forecast models show no skill during the long rains. Our SST indices also appear to capture most of the major recent drought events such as 2000, 2009 and 2011. Predictions based on these simple indices can be used to support regional forecasting efforts and land surface data assimilations to help inform early warning and guide climate outlooks.

Simulation Modeling of Software Development Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Calavaro, G. F.; Basili, V. R.; Iazeolla, G.

1996-01-01

A simulation modeling approach is proposed for the prediction of software process productivity indices, such as cost and time-to-market, and the sensitivity analysis of such indices to changes in the organization parameters and user requirements. The approach uses a timed Petri Net and Object Oriented top-down model specification. Results demonstrate the model representativeness, and its usefulness in verifying process conformance to expectations, and in performing continuous process improvement and optimization.

Predicting soil quality indices with near infrared analysis in a wildfire chronosequence.

PubMed

Cécillon, Lauric; Cassagne, Nathalie; Czarnes, Sonia; Gros, Raphaël; Vennetier, Michel; Brun, Jean-Jacques

2009-01-15

We investigated the power of near infrared (NIR) analysis for the quantitative assessment of soil quality in a wildfire chronosequence. The effect of wildfire disturbance and soil engineering activity of earthworms on soil organic matter quality was first assessed with principal component analysis of NIR spectra. Three soil quality indices were further calculated using an adaptation of the method proposed by Velasquez et al. [Velasquez, E., Lavelle, P., Andrade, M. GISQ, a multifunctional indicator of soil quality. Soil Biol Biochem 2007; 39: 3066-3080.], each one addressing an ecosystem service provided by soils: organic matter storage, nutrient supply and biological activity. Partial least squares regression models were developed to test the predicting ability of NIR analysis for these soil quality indices. All models reached coefficients of determination above 0.90 and ratios of performance to deviation above 2.8. This finding provides new opportunities for the monitoring of soil quality, using NIR scanning of soil samples.

Novel risk predictor for thrombus deposition in abdominal aortic aneurysms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nestola, M. G. C.; Gizzi, A.; Cherubini, C.; Filippi, S.; Succi, S.

2015-10-01

The identification of the basic mechanisms responsible for cardiovascular diseases stands as one of the most challenging problems in modern medical research including various mechanisms which encompass a broad spectrum of space and time scales. Major implications for clinical practice and pre-emptive medicine rely on the onset and development of intraluminal thrombus in which effective clinical therapies require synthetic risk predictors/indicators capable of informing real-time decision-making protocols. In the present contribution, two novel hemodynamics synthetic indicators, based on a three-band decomposition (TBD) of the shear stress signal, are introduced. Extensive fluid-structure computer simulations of patient-specific scenarios confirm the enhanced risk-prediction capabilities of the TBD indicators. In particular, they permit a quantitative and accurate localization of the most likely thrombus deposition in realistic aortic geometries, where previous indicators would predict healthy operation. The proposed methodology is also shown to provide additional information and discrimination criteria on other factors of major clinical relevance, such as the size of the aneurysm.

Forecasting Precipitation over the MENA Region: A Data Mining and Remote Sensing Based Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elkadiri, R.; Sultan, M.; Elbayoumi, T.; Chouinard, K.

2015-12-01

We developed and applied an integrated approach to construct predictive tools with lead times of 1 to 12 months to forecast precipitation amounts over the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The following steps were conducted: (1) acquire and analyze temporal remote sensing-based precipitation datasets (i.e. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission [TRMM]) over five main water source regions in the MENA area (i.e. Atlas Mountains in Morocco, Southern Sudan, Red Sea Hills of Yemen, and Blue Nile and White Nile source areas) throughout the investigation period (1998 to 2015), (2) acquire and extract monthly values for all of the climatic indices that are likely to influence the climatic patterns over the MENA region (e.g., Northern Atlantic Oscillation [NOI], Southern Oscillation Index [SOI], and Tropical North Atlantic Index [TNA]); and (3) apply data mining methods to extract relationships between the observed precipitation and the controlling factors (climatic indices) and use predictive tools to forecast monthly precipitation over each of the identified pilot study areas. Preliminary results indicate that by using the period from January 1998 until August 2012 for model training and the period from September 2012 to January 2015 for testing, precipitation can be successfully predicted with a three-months lead over South West Yemen, Atlas Mountains in Morocco, Southern Sudan, Blue Nile sources and White Nile sources with confidence (Pearson correlation coefficient: 0.911, 0.823, 0.807, 0.801 and 0.895 respectively). Future work will focus on applying this technique for prediction of precipitation over each of the climatically contiguous areas of the MENA region. If our efforts are successful, our findings will lead the way to the development and implementation of sound water management scenarios for the MENA countries.

Digit-Length Ratios (2D:4D) as a Phenotypic Indicator of in Utero Androgen Exposure is Not Prognostic for Androgenic Alopecia: a Descriptive-Analytic Study of 1200 Iranian Men.

PubMed

Feily, Amir; Hosseinpoor, Masoomeh; Bakhti, Ali; Nekuyi, Mohamad; Sobhanian, Saeed; Fathinezhad, Zahra; Sahraei, Reza; Ramirez-Fort, Marigdalia K

2016-06-15

The etiology of androgenic alopecia (AGA) involves several factors, including genetics, androgens, age and nutrition. Digit-length ratio of the index and ring finger (2D:4D) is an indicator of prenatal exposure to sex hormones. There is a paucity of studies that systemically review the possible positive predictive value of 2D:4D in the development of AGA. We performed a single-site, descriptive-analytical study among a racially homogeneous population. Our results revealed that no significant association was determined between right 2D:4D and AGA severity within our entire population (P=0.384, r=0.025), however a positive correlation coefficient was identified in subjects above the age of 40. Based on the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, 2D:4D does not predict the development of AGA. AGA is truly a multifactorial disease. Further, our findings suggest that increased in utero exposure to androgens as a fetus does not predispose men to develop AGA.

When high working memory capacity is and is not beneficial for predicting nonlinear processes.

PubMed

Fischer, Helen; Holt, Daniel V

2017-04-01

Predicting the development of dynamic processes is vital in many areas of life. Previous findings are inconclusive as to whether higher working memory capacity (WMC) is always associated with using more accurate prediction strategies, or whether higher WMC can also be associated with using overly complex strategies that do not improve accuracy. In this study, participants predicted a range of systematically varied nonlinear processes based on exponential functions where prediction accuracy could or could not be enhanced using well-calibrated rules. Results indicate that higher WMC participants seem to rely more on well-calibrated strategies, leading to more accurate predictions for processes with highly nonlinear trajectories in the prediction region. Predictions of lower WMC participants, in contrast, point toward an increased use of simple exemplar-based prediction strategies, which perform just as well as more complex strategies when the prediction region is approximately linear. These results imply that with respect to predicting dynamic processes, working memory capacity limits are not generally a strength or a weakness, but that this depends on the process to be predicted.

Predictive modeling: Solubility of C60 and C70 fullerenes in diverse solvents.

PubMed

Gupta, Shikha; Basant, Nikita

2018-06-01

Solubility of fullerenes imposes a major limitation to further advanced research and technological development using these novel materials. There have been continued efforts to discover better solvents and their properties that influence the solubility of fullerenes. Here, we have developed QSPR (quantitative structure-property relationship) models based on structural features of diverse solvents and large experimental data for predicting the solubility of C 60 and C 70 fullerenes. The developed models identified most relevant features of the solvents that encode the polarizability, polarity and lipophilicity properties which largely influence the solubilizing potential of the solvent for the fullerenes. We also established Inter-moieties solubility correlations (IMSC) based quantitative property-property relationship (QPPR) models for predicting solubility of C 60 and C 70 fullerenes. The QSPR and QPPR models were internally and externally validated deriving the most stringent statistical criteria and predicted C 60 and C 70 solubility values in different solvents were in close agreement with the experimental values. In test sets, the QSPR models yielded high correlations (R 2  > 0.964) and low root mean squared error of prediction errors (RMSEP< 0.25). Results of comparison with other studies indicated that the proposed models could effectively improve the accuracy and ability for predicting solubility of C 60 and C 70 fullerenes in solvents with diverse structures and would be useful in development of more effective solvents. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Thermal Indices and Thermophysiological Modeling for Heat Stress.

PubMed

Havenith, George; Fiala, Dusan

2015-12-15

The assessment of the risk of human exposure to heat is a topic as relevant today as a century ago. The introduction and use of heat stress indices and models to predict and quantify heat stress and heat strain has helped to reduce morbidity and mortality in industrial, military, sports, and leisure activities dramatically. Models used range from simple instruments that attempt to mimic the human-environment heat exchange to complex thermophysiological models that simulate both internal and external heat and mass transfer, including related processes through (protective) clothing. This article discusses the most commonly used indices and models and looks at how these are deployed in the different contexts of industrial, military, and biometeorological applications, with focus on use to predict related thermal sensations, acute risk of heat illness, and epidemiological analysis of morbidity and mortality. A critical assessment is made of tendencies to use simple indices such as WBGT in more complex conditions (e.g., while wearing protective clothing), or when employed in conjunction with inappropriate sensors. Regarding the more complex thermophysiological models, the article discusses more recent developments including model individualization approaches and advanced systems that combine simulation models with (body worn) sensors to provide real-time risk assessment. The models discussed in the article range from historical indices to recent developments in using thermophysiological models in (bio) meteorological applications as an indicator of the combined effect of outdoor weather settings on humans. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

The wisdom of crowds in action: Forecasting epidemic diseases with a web-based prediction market system.

PubMed

Li, Eldon Y; Tung, Chen-Yuan; Chang, Shu-Hsun

2016-08-01

The quest for an effective system capable of monitoring and predicting the trends of epidemic diseases is a critical issue for communities worldwide. With the prevalence of Internet access, more and more researchers today are using data from both search engines and social media to improve the prediction accuracy. In particular, a prediction market system (PMS) exploits the wisdom of crowds on the Internet to effectively accomplish relatively high accuracy. This study presents the architecture of a PMS and demonstrates the matching mechanism of logarithmic market scoring rules. The system was implemented to predict infectious diseases in Taiwan with the wisdom of crowds in order to improve the accuracy of epidemic forecasting. The PMS architecture contains three design components: database clusters, market engine, and Web applications. The system accumulated knowledge from 126 health professionals for 31 weeks to predict five disease indicators: the confirmed cases of dengue fever, the confirmed cases of severe and complicated influenza, the rate of enterovirus infections, the rate of influenza-like illnesses, and the confirmed cases of severe and complicated enterovirus infection. Based on the winning ratio, the PMS predicts the trends of three out of five disease indicators more accurately than does the existing system that uses the five-year average values of historical data for the same weeks. In addition, the PMS with the matching mechanism of logarithmic market scoring rules is easy to understand for health professionals and applicable to predict all the five disease indicators. The PMS architecture of this study affords organizations and individuals to implement it for various purposes in our society. The system can continuously update the data and improve prediction accuracy in monitoring and forecasting the trends of epidemic diseases. Future researchers could replicate and apply the PMS demonstrated in this study to more infectious diseases and wider geographical areas, especially the under-developed countries across Asia and Africa. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Applying linear discriminant analysis to predict groundwater redox conditions conducive to denitrification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, S. R.; Close, M. E.; Abraham, P.

2018-01-01

Diffuse nitrate losses from agricultural land pollute groundwater resources worldwide, but can be attenuated under reducing subsurface conditions. In New Zealand, the ability to predict where groundwater denitrification occurs is important for understanding the linkage between land use and discharges of nitrate-bearing groundwater to streams. This study assesses the application of linear discriminant analysis (LDA) for predicting groundwater redox status for Southland, a major dairy farming region in New Zealand. Data cases were developed by assigning a redox status to samples derived from a regional groundwater quality database. Pre-existing regional-scale geospatial databases were used as training variables for the discriminant functions. The predictive accuracy of the discriminant functions was slightly improved by optimising the thresholds between sample depth classes. The models predict 23% of the region as being reducing at shallow depths (<15 m), and 37% at medium depths (15-75 m). Predictions were made at a sub-regional level to determine whether improvements could be made with discriminant functions trained by local data. The results indicated that any gains in predictive success were offset by loss of confidence in the predictions due to the reduction in the number of samples used. The regional scale model predictions indicate that subsurface reducing conditions predominate at low elevations on the coastal plains where poorly drained soils are widespread. Additional indicators for subsurface denitrification are a high carbon content of the soil, a shallow water table, and low-permeability clastic sediments. The coastal plains are an area of widespread groundwater discharge, and the soil and hydrology characteristics require the land to be artificially drained to render the land suitable for farming. For the improvement of water quality in coastal areas, it is therefore important that land and water management efforts focus on understanding hydrological bypassing that may occur via artificial drainage systems.

Moss and vascular plant indices in Ohio wetlands have similar environmental predictors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stapanian, Martin A.; Schumacher, William; Gara, Brian; Adams, Jean V.; Viau, Nick

2016-01-01

Mosses and vascular plants have been shown to be reliable indicators of wetland habitat delineation and environmental quality. Knowledge of the best ecological predictors of the quality of wetland moss and vascular plant communities may determine if similar management practices would simultaneously enhance both populations. We used Akaike's Information Criterion to identify models predicting a moss quality assessment index (MQAI) and a vascular plant index of biological integrity based on floristic quality (VIBI-FQ) from 27 emergent and 13 forested wetlands in Ohio, USA. The set of predictors included the six metrics from a wetlands disturbance index (ORAM) and two landscape development intensity indices (LDIs). The best single predictor of MQAI and one of the predictors of VIBI-FQ was an ORAM metric that assesses habitat alteration and disturbance within the wetland, such as mowing, grazing, and agricultural practices. However, the best single predictor of VIBI-FQ was an ORAM metric that assessed wetland vascular plant communities, interspersion, and microtopography. LDIs better predicted MQAI than VIBI-FQ, suggesting that mosses may either respond more rapidly to, or recover more slowly from, anthropogenic disturbance in the surrounding landscape than vascular plants. These results supported previous predictive studies on amphibian indices and metrics and a separate vegetation index, indicating that similar wetland management practices may result in qualitatively the same ecological response for three vastly different wetland biological communities (amphibians, vascular plants, and mosses).

ProTox: a web server for the in silico prediction of rodent oral toxicity.

PubMed

Drwal, Malgorzata N; Banerjee, Priyanka; Dunkel, Mathias; Wettig, Martin R; Preissner, Robert

2014-07-01

Animal trials are currently the major method for determining the possible toxic effects of drug candidates and cosmetics. In silico prediction methods represent an alternative approach and aim to rationalize the preclinical drug development, thus enabling the reduction of the associated time, costs and animal experiments. Here, we present ProTox, a web server for the prediction of rodent oral toxicity. The prediction method is based on the analysis of the similarity of compounds with known median lethal doses (LD50) and incorporates the identification of toxic fragments, therefore representing a novel approach in toxicity prediction. In addition, the web server includes an indication of possible toxicity targets which is based on an in-house collection of protein-ligand-based pharmacophore models ('toxicophores') for targets associated with adverse drug reactions. The ProTox web server is open to all users and can be accessed without registration at: http://tox.charite.de/tox. The only requirement for the prediction is the two-dimensional structure of the input compounds. All ProTox methods have been evaluated based on a diverse external validation set and displayed strong performance (sensitivity, specificity and precision of 76, 95 and 75%, respectively) and superiority over other toxicity prediction tools, indicating their possible applicability for other compound classes. © The Author(s) 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

Measurement properties of comorbidity indices in maternal health research: a systematic review.

PubMed

Aoyama, Kazuyoshi; D'Souza, Rohan; Inada, Eiichi; Lapinsky, Stephen E; Fowler, Robert A

2017-11-13

Maternal critical illness occurs in 1.2 to 4.7 of every 1000 live births in the United States and approximately 1 in 100 women who become critically ill will die. Patient characteristics and comorbid conditions are commonly summarized as an index or score for the purpose of predicting the likelihood of dying; however, most such indices have arisen from non-pregnant patient populations. We sought to systematically review comorbidity indices used in health administrative datasets of pregnant women, in order to critically appraise their measurement properties and recommend optimal tools for clinicians and maternal health researchers. We conducted a systematic search of MEDLINE and EMBASE to identify studies published from 1946 and 1947, respectively, to May 2017 that describe predictive validity of comorbidity indices using health administrative datasets in the field of maternal health research. We applied a methodological PubMed search filter to identify all studies of measurement properties for each index. Our initial search retrieved 8944 citations. The full text of 61 articles were identified and assessed for final eligibility. Finally, two eligible articles, describing three comorbidity indices appropriate for health administrative data remained: The Maternal comorbidity index, the Charlson comorbidity index and the Elixhauser Comorbidity Index. These studies of identified indices had a low risk of bias. The lack of an established consensus-building methodology in generating each index resulted in marginal sensibility for all indices. Only the Maternal Comorbidity Index was derived and validated specifically from a cohort of pregnant and postpartum women, using an administrative dataset, and had an associated c-statistic of 0.675 (95% Confidence Interval 0.647-0.666) in predicting mortality. Only the Maternal Comorbidity Index directly evaluated measurement properties relevant to pregnant women in health administrative datasets; however, it has only modest predictive ability for mortality among development and validation studies. Further research to investigate the feasibility of applying this index in clinical research, and its reliability across a variety of health administrative datasets would be incrementally helpful. Evolution of this and other tools for risk prediction and risk adjustment in pregnant and post-partum patients is an important area for ongoing study.

Clinical Nomograms to Predict Stone-Free Rates after Shock-Wave Lithotripsy: Development and Internal-Validation

PubMed Central

Kim, Jung Kwon; Ha, Seung Beom; Jeon, Chan Hoo; Oh, Jong Jin; Cho, Sung Yong; Oh, Seung-June; Kim, Hyeon Hoe; Jeong, Chang Wook

2016-01-01

Purpose Shock-wave lithotripsy (SWL) is accepted as the first line treatment modality for uncomplicated upper urinary tract stones; however, validated prediction models with regards to stone-free rates (SFRs) are still needed. We aimed to develop nomograms predicting SFRs after the first and within the third session of SWL. Computed tomography (CT) information was also modeled for constructing nomograms. Materials and Methods From March 2006 to December 2013, 3028 patients were treated with SWL for ureter and renal stones at our three tertiary institutions. Four cohorts were constructed: Total-development, Total-validation, CT-development, and CT-validation cohorts. The nomograms were developed using multivariate logistic regression models with selected significant variables in a univariate logistic regression model. A C-index was used to assess the discrimination accuracy of nomograms and calibration plots were used to analyze the consistency of prediction. Results The SFR, after the first and within the third session, was 48.3% and 68.8%, respectively. Significant variables were sex, stone location, stone number, and maximal stone diameter in the Total-development cohort, and mean Hounsfield unit (HU) and grade of hydronephrosis (HN) were additional parameters in the CT-development cohort. The C-indices were 0.712 and 0.723 for after the first and within the third session of SWL in the Total-development cohort, and 0.755 and 0.756, in the CT-development cohort, respectively. The calibration plots showed good correspondences. Conclusions We constructed and validated nomograms to predict SFR after SWL. To the best of our knowledge, these are the first graphical nomograms to be modeled with CT information. These may be useful for patient counseling and treatment decision-making. PMID:26890006

[Determination of soluble solids content in Nanfeng Mandarin by Vis/NIR spectroscopy and UVE-ICA-LS-SVM].

PubMed

Sun, Tong; Xu, Wen-Li; Hu, Tian; Liu, Mu-Hua

2013-12-01

The objective of the present research was to assess soluble solids content (SSC) of Nanfeng mandarin by visible/near infrared (Vis/NIR) spectroscopy combined with new variable selection method, simplify prediction model and improve the performance of prediction model for SSC of Nanfeng mandarin. A total of 300 Nanfeng mandarin samples were used, the numbers of Nanfeng mandarin samples in calibration, validation and prediction sets were 150, 75 and 75, respectively. Vis/NIR spectra of Nanfeng mandarin samples were acquired by a QualitySpec spectrometer in the wavelength range of 350-1000 nm. Uninformative variables elimination (UVE) was used to eliminate wavelength variables that had few information of SSC, then independent component analysis (ICA) was used to extract independent components (ICs) from spectra that eliminated uninformative wavelength variables. At last, least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM) was used to develop calibration models for SSC of Nanfeng mandarin using extracted ICs, and 75 prediction samples that had not been used for model development were used to evaluate the performance of SSC model of Nanfeng mandarin. The results indicate t hat Vis/NIR spectroscopy combinedwith UVE-ICA-LS-SVM is suitable for assessing SSC o f Nanfeng mandarin, and t he precision o f prediction ishigh. UVE--ICA is an effective method to eliminate uninformative wavelength variables, extract important spectral information, simplify prediction model and improve the performance of prediction model. The SSC model developed by UVE-ICA-LS-SVM is superior to that developed by PLS, PCA-LS-SVM or ICA-LS-SVM, and the coefficient of determination and root mean square error in calibration, validation and prediction sets were 0.978, 0.230%, 0.965, 0.301% and 0.967, 0.292%, respectively.

Use of Case History Data for the Development of Equations in Predicting High Risk, Reading Disabled Students.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stratton, Beverly D.; And Others

Demographic data on 92 subjects identified as having reading problems were used to develop equations useful in identifying high risk, reading disabled students. Multiple linear regression analysis of the data indicated that reading disability (1) had a significant positive relationship with birth order and number of siblings; (2) had a positive…

Developing a probability-based model of aquifer vulnerability in an agricultural region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Shih-Kai; Jang, Cheng-Shin; Peng, Yi-Huei

2013-04-01

SummaryHydrogeological settings of aquifers strongly influence the regional groundwater movement and pollution processes. Establishing a map of aquifer vulnerability is considerably critical for planning a scheme of groundwater quality protection. This study developed a novel probability-based DRASTIC model of aquifer vulnerability in the Choushui River alluvial fan, Taiwan, using indicator kriging and to determine various risk categories of contamination potentials based on estimated vulnerability indexes. Categories and ratings of six parameters in the probability-based DRASTIC model were probabilistically characterized according to the parameter classification methods of selecting a maximum estimation probability and calculating an expected value. Moreover, the probability-based estimation and assessment gave us an excellent insight into propagating the uncertainty of parameters due to limited observation data. To examine the prediction capacity of pollutants for the developed probability-based DRASTIC model, medium, high, and very high risk categories of contamination potentials were compared with observed nitrate-N exceeding 0.5 mg/L indicating the anthropogenic groundwater pollution. The analyzed results reveal that the developed probability-based DRASTIC model is capable of predicting high nitrate-N groundwater pollution and characterizing the parameter uncertainty via the probability estimation processes.

Predicting Individual Characteristics from Digital Traces on Social Media: A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Settanni, Michele; Azucar, Danny; Marengo, Davide

2018-04-01

The increasing utilization of social media provides a vast and new source of user-generated ecological data (digital traces), which can be automatically collected for research purposes. The availability of these data sets, combined with the convergence between social and computer sciences, has led researchers to develop automated methods to extract digital traces from social media and use them to predict individual psychological characteristics and behaviors. In this article, we reviewed the literature on this topic and conducted a series of meta-analyses to determine the strength of associations between digital traces and specific individual characteristics; personality, psychological well-being, and intelligence. Potential moderator effects were analyzed with respect to type of social media platform, type of digital traces examined, and study quality. Our findings indicate that digital traces from social media can be studied to assess and predict theoretically distant psychosocial characteristics with remarkable accuracy. Analysis of moderators indicated that the collection of specific types of information (i.e., user demographics), and the inclusion of different types of digital traces, could help improve the accuracy of predictions.

Crack propagation analysis and fatigue life prediction for structural alloy steel based on metal magnetic memory testing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ni, Chen; Hua, Lin; Wang, Xiaokai

2018-09-01

To monitor the crack propagation and predict the fatigue life of ferromagnetic material, the metal magnetic memory (MMM) testing was carried out to the single edge notched specimen made from structural alloy steel under three-point bending fatigue experiment in this paper. The variation of magnetic memory signal Hp (y) in process of fatigue crack propagation was investigated. The gradient K of Hp (y) was investigated and compared with the stress of specimen obtained by finite element analysis. It indicated that the gradient K can qualitatively reflect the distribution and variation of stress. The maximum gradient Kmax and crack size showed a good linear relationship, which indicated that the crack propagation can be estimated by MMM testing. Furthermore, the damage model represented by magnetic memory characteristic was created and a fatigue life prediction method was developed. The fatigue life can be evaluated by the relationship between damage parameter and normalized life. The method was also verified by another specimen. Because of MMM testing, it provided a new approach for predicting fatigue life.

Characterizing the Preturbulence Environment for Sensor Development, New Hazard Algorithms and NASA Experimental Flight Planning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaplan, Michael L.; Lin, Yuh-Lang

2004-01-01

During the grant period, several tasks were performed in support of the NASA Turbulence Prediction and Warning Systems (TPAWS) program. The primary focus of the research was on characterizing the preturbulence environment by developing predictive tools and simulating atmospheric conditions that preceded severe turbulence. The goal of the research being to provide both dynamical understanding of conditions that preceded turbulence as well as providing predictive tools in support of operational NASA B-757 turbulence research flights. The advancements in characterizing the preturbulence environment will be applied by NASA to sensor development for predicting turbulence onboard commercial aircraft. Numerical simulations with atmospheric models as well as multi-scale observational analyses provided insights into the environment organizing turbulence in a total of forty-eight specific case studies of severe accident producing turbulence on commercial aircraft. These accidents exclusively affected commercial aircraft. A paradigm was developed which diagnosed specific atmospheric circulation systems from the synoptic scale down to the meso-y scale that preceded turbulence in both clear air and in proximity to convection. The emphasis was primarily on convective turbulence as that is what the TPAWS program is most focused on in terms of developing improved sensors for turbulence warning and avoidance. However, the dynamical paradigm also has applicability to clear air and mountain turbulence. This dynamical sequence of events was then employed to formulate and test new hazard prediction indices that were first tested in research simulation studies and then ultimately were further tested in support of the NASA B-757 turbulence research flights. The new hazard characterization algorithms were utilized in a Real Time Turbulence Model (RTTM) that was operationally employed to support the NASA B-757 turbulence research flights. Improvements in the RTTM were implemented in an effort to increase the accuracy of the operational characterization of the preturbulence environment. Additionally, the initial research necessary to create a statistical evaluation scheme for the characterization indices utilized in the RTTM was undertaken. Results of all components of this research were then published in NASA contractor reports and scientific journal papers.

Predicting rheological behavior and baking quality of wheat flour using a GlutoPeak test.

PubMed

Rakita, Slađana; Dokić, Ljubica; Dapčević Hadnađev, Tamara; Hadnađev, Miroslav; Torbica, Aleksandra

2018-06-01

The purpose of this research was to gain an insight into the ability of the GlutoPeak instrument to predict flour functionality for bread making, as well as to determine which of the GlutoPeak parameters show the best potential in predicting dough rheological behavior and baking performance. Obtained results showed that GlutoPeak parameters correlated better with the indices of extensional rheological tests which consider constant dough hydration than with those which were performed at constant dough consistency. The GlutoPeak test showed that it is suitable for discriminating wheat varieties of good quality from those of poor quality, while the most discriminating index was maximum torque (MT). Moreover, MT value of 50 BU and aggregation energy value of 1,300 GPU were set as limits of wheat flour quality. The backward stepwise regression analysis revealed that a high-level prediction of indices which are highly affected by protein content (gluten content, flour water absorption, and dough tenacity) was achieved by using the GlutoPeak indices. Concerning bread quality, a moderate prediction of specific loaf volume and an intense level prediction of breadcrumb textural properties were accomplished by using the GlutoPeak parameters. The presented results indicated that the application of this quick test in wheat transformation chain for the assessment of baking quality would be useful. Baking test is considered as the most reliable method for assessing wheat-baking quality. However, baking test requires trained stuff, time, and large sample amount. These disadvantages have led to a growing demand to develop new rapid tests which would enable prediction of baked product quality with a limited flour size. Therefore, we tested the possibility of using a GlutoPeak tester to predict loaf volume and breadcrumb textural properties. Discrimination of wheat varieties according to quality with a restricted flour amount was also examined. Furthermore, we proposed the limit values of GlutoPeak parameters which would be highly beneficial for millers and bakers when determine suitability of flour for end-use. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Spatial Models for Prediction and Early Warning of Aedes aegypti Proliferation from Data on Climate Change and Variability in Cuba.

PubMed

Ortiz, Paulo L; Rivero, Alina; Linares, Yzenia; Pérez, Alina; Vázquez, Juan R

2015-04-01

Climate variability, the primary expression of climate change, is one of the most important environmental problems affecting human health, particularly vector-borne diseases. Despite research efforts worldwide, there are few studies addressing the use of information on climate variability for prevention and early warning of vector-borne infectious diseases. Show the utility of climate information for vector surveillance by developing spatial models using an entomological indicator and information on predicted climate variability in Cuba to provide early warning of danger of increased risk of dengue transmission. An ecological study was carried out using retrospective and prospective analyses of time series combined with spatial statistics. Several entomological and climatic indicators were considered using complex Bultó indices -1 and -2. Moran's I spatial autocorrelation coefficient specified for a matrix of neighbors with a radius of 20 km, was used to identify the spatial structure. Spatial structure simulation was based on simultaneous autoregressive and conditional autoregressive models; agreement between predicted and observed values for number of Aedes aegypti foci was determined by the concordance index Di and skill factor Bi. Spatial and temporal distributions of populations of Aedes aegypti were obtained. Models for describing, simulating and predicting spatial patterns of Aedes aegypti populations associated with climate variability patterns were put forward. The ranges of climate variability affecting Aedes aegypti populations were identified. Forecast maps were generated for the municipal level. Using the Bultó indices of climate variability, it is possible to construct spatial models for predicting increased Aedes aegypti populations in Cuba. At 20 x 20 km resolution, the models are able to provide warning of potential changes in vector populations in rainy and dry seasons and by month, thus demonstrating the usefulness of climate information for epidemiological surveillance.

Comparative Study of foF2 Measurements with IRI-2007 Model Predictions During Extended Solar Minimum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zakharenkova, I. E.; Krankowski, A.; Bilitza, D.; Cherniak, Iu.V.; Shagimuratov, I.I.; Sieradzki, R.

2013-01-01

The unusually deep and extended solar minimum of cycle 2324 made it very difficult to predict the solar indices 1 or 2 years into the future. Most of the predictions were proven wrong by the actual observed indices. IRI gets its solar, magnetic, and ionospheric indices from an indices file that is updated twice a year. In recent years, due to the unusual solar minimum, predictions had to be corrected downward with every new indices update. In this paper we analyse how much the uncertainties in the predictability of solar activity indices affect the IRI outcome and how the IRI values calculated with predicted and observed indices compared to the actual measurements.Monthly median values of F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) derived from the ionosonde measurements at the mid-latitude ionospheric station Juliusruh were compared with the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI-2007) model predictions. The analysis found that IRIprovides reliable results that compare well with actual measurements, when the definite (observed and adjusted) indices of solar activityare used, while IRI values based on earlier predictions of these indices noticeably overestimated the measurements during the solar minimum.One of the principal objectives of this paper is to direct attention of IRI users to update their solar activity indices files regularly.Use of an older index file can lead to serious IRI overestimations of F-region electron density during the recent extended solar minimum.

Capital market based warning indicators of bank runs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vakhtina, Elena; Wosnitza, Jan Henrik

2015-01-01

In this investigation, we examine the univariate as well as the multivariate capabilities of the log-periodic [super-exponential] power law (LPPL) for the prediction of bank runs. The research is built upon daily CDS spreads of 40 international banks for the period from June 2007 to March 2010, i.e. at the heart of the global financial crisis. For this time period, 20 of the financial institutions received federal bailouts and are labeled as defaults while the remaining institutions are categorized as non-defaults. The employed multivariate pattern recognition approach represents a modification of the CORA3 algorithm. The approach is found to be robust regardless of reasonable changes of its inputs. Despite the fact that distinct alarm indices for banks do not clearly demonstrate predictive capabilities of the LPPL, the synchronized alarm indices confirm the multivariate discriminative power of LPPL patterns in CDS spread developments acknowledged by bootstrap intervals with 70% confidence level.

PREDICTORS OF INFANT AND TODDLER BLACK BOYS' EARLY LEARNING: SEIZING OPPORTUNITIES AND MINIMIZING RISKS.

PubMed

Iruka, Iheoma U

2017-01-01

Using the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Birth Cohort (ECLS-B) data set (U.S. Department of Education Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Education Statistics, 2001), this study examined child, family, and community factors in the early years (infant and toddler years) to predict the cognitive and language outcomes for preschool-age Black boys in relation to Black girls and White boys. Findings indicate that Black children face many challenges, with Black boys experiencing less sensitive parenting as compared to their peers. We live in a highly complex, racialized environment. While there are universal indicators that predict children's preschool outcomes such as strong social positioning and positive parenting, there are, in addition, some indicators that are more beneficial for Black boys' early development, including a stable, less urban home environment with parents engaging in "tough love." © 2016 Michigan Association for Infant Mental Health.

ECOTOXICOGENOMICS: EXPOSURE INDICATORS USING ESTS AND SUBTRACTIVE LIBRARIES FOR MULTI-LIFE STAGES OF PIMEPHALES

EPA Science Inventory

Ecotoxicogenomics is research that identifies patterns of gene expression in wildlife and predicts effects of environmental stressors. We are developing a multiple stressor, multiple life stage exposure model using the fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas), initially studying fou...

Permutation auto-mutual information of electroencephalogram in anesthesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Zhenhu; Wang, Yinghua; Ouyang, Gaoxiang; Voss, Logan J.; Sleigh, Jamie W.; Li, Xiaoli

2013-04-01

Objective. The dynamic change of brain activity in anesthesia is an interesting topic for clinical doctors and drug designers. To explore the dynamical features of brain activity in anesthesia, a permutation auto-mutual information (PAMI) method is proposed to measure the information coupling of electroencephalogram (EEG) time series obtained in anesthesia. Approach. The PAMI is developed and applied on EEG data collected from 19 patients under sevoflurane anesthesia. The results are compared with the traditional auto-mutual information (AMI), SynchFastSlow (SFS, derived from the BIS index), permutation entropy (PE), composite PE (CPE), response entropy (RE) and state entropy (SE). Performance of all indices is assessed by pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) modeling and prediction probability. Main results. The PK/PD modeling and prediction probability analysis show that the PAMI index correlates closely with the anesthetic effect. The coefficient of determination R2 between PAMI values and the sevoflurane effect site concentrations, and the prediction probability Pk are higher in comparison with other indices. The information coupling in EEG series can be applied to indicate the effect of the anesthetic drug sevoflurane on the brain activity as well as other indices. The PAMI of the EEG signals is suggested as a new index to track drug concentration change. Significance. The PAMI is a useful index for analyzing the EEG dynamics during general anesthesia.

Adding insult to injury

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friebele, Elaine

New predictions and observations suggest that global warming will exact the highest costs on developing countries. A recent economic analysis of global climate change indicates that developed countries, the primary emitters of carbon dioxide, would benefit by $82 billion per year from a 2°C increase in global mean temperature, while underdeveloped countries would lose $40 billion per year.For the economic analysis, global climate predictions were combined with economic data (for agriculture, forestry, coastal resources, energy, and tourism), but natural climate variability, including frosts, droughts, or severe thunderstorms, was not included. Countries predicted to suffer the greatest economic losses from global warming are island nations, said Michael Schlesinger, a University of Illinois atmospheric scientist who performed the economic analysis with colleagues from Yale University and Middlebury College. “These countries have long coast lines, sensitive tourism industries, and small, undeveloped economies.”

Longitudinal associations between marital instability and child sleep problems across infancy and toddlerhood in adoptive families.

PubMed

Mannering, Anne M; Harold, Gordon T; Leve, Leslie D; Shelton, Katherine H; Shaw, Daniel S; Conger, Rand D; Neiderhiser, Jenae M; Scaramella, Laura V; Reiss, David

2011-01-01

This study examined the longitudinal association between marital instability and child sleep problems at ages 9 and 18 months in 357 families with a genetically unrelated infant adopted at birth. This design eliminates shared genes as an explanation for similarities between parent and child. Structural equation modeling indicated that T1 marital instability predicted T2 child sleep problems, but T1 child sleep problems did not predict T2 marital instability. This result was replicated when models were estimated separately for mothers and fathers. Thus, even after controlling for stability in sleep problems and marital instability and eliminating shared genetic influences on associations using a longitudinal adoption design, marital instability prospectively predicts early childhood sleep patterns. © 2011 The Authors. Child Development © 2011 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

Suitability of different comfort indices for the prediction of thermal conditions in tree-covered outdoor spaces in arid cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz, María Angélica; Correa, Erica Norma

2015-10-01

Outdoor thermal comfort is one of the most influential factors in the habitability of a space. Thermal level is defined not only by climate variables but also by the adaptation of people to the environment. This study presents a comparison between inductive and deductive thermal comfort models, contrasted with subjective reports, in order to identify which of the models can be used to most correctly predict thermal comfort in tree-covered outdoor spaces of the Mendoza Metropolitan Area, an intensely forested and open city located in an arid zone. Interviews and microclimatic measurements were carried out in winter 2010 and in summer 2011. Six widely used indices were selected according to different levels of complexity: the Temperature-Humidity Index (THI), Vinje's Comfort Index (PE), Thermal Sensation Index (TS), the Predicted Mean Vote (PMV), the COMFA model's energy balance (S), and the Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET). The results show that the predictive models evaluated show percentages of predictive ability lower than 25 %. Despite this low indicator, inductive methods are adequate for obtaining a diagnosis of the degree and frequency in which a space is comfortable or not whereas deductive methods are recommended to influence urban design strategies. In addition, it is necessary to develop local models to evaluate perceived thermal comfort more adequately. This type of tool is very useful in the design and evaluation of the thermal conditions in outdoor spaces, based not only to climatic criteria but also subjective sensations.

A New Method for Predicting Patient Survivorship Using Efficient Bayesian Network Learning

PubMed Central

Jiang, Xia; Xue, Diyang; Brufsky, Adam; Khan, Seema; Neapolitan, Richard

2014-01-01

The purpose of this investigation is to develop and evaluate a new Bayesian network (BN)-based patient survivorship prediction method. The central hypothesis is that the method predicts patient survivorship well, while having the capability to handle high-dimensional data and be incorporated into a clinical decision support system (CDSS). We have developed EBMC_Survivorship (EBMC_S), which predicts survivorship for each year individually. EBMC_S is based on the EBMC BN algorithm, which has been shown to handle high-dimensional data. BNs have excellent architecture for decision support systems. In this study, we evaluate EBMC_S using the Molecular Taxonomy of Breast Cancer International Consortium (METABRIC) dataset, which concerns breast tumors. A 5-fold cross-validation study indicates that EMBC_S performs better than the Cox proportional hazard model and is comparable to the random survival forest method. We show that EBMC_S provides additional information such as sensitivity analyses, which covariates predict each year, and yearly areas under the ROC curve (AUROCs). We conclude that our investigation supports the central hypothesis. PMID:24558297

A new method for predicting patient survivorship using efficient bayesian network learning.

PubMed

Jiang, Xia; Xue, Diyang; Brufsky, Adam; Khan, Seema; Neapolitan, Richard

2014-01-01

The purpose of this investigation is to develop and evaluate a new Bayesian network (BN)-based patient survivorship prediction method. The central hypothesis is that the method predicts patient survivorship well, while having the capability to handle high-dimensional data and be incorporated into a clinical decision support system (CDSS). We have developed EBMC_Survivorship (EBMC_S), which predicts survivorship for each year individually. EBMC_S is based on the EBMC BN algorithm, which has been shown to handle high-dimensional data. BNs have excellent architecture for decision support systems. In this study, we evaluate EBMC_S using the Molecular Taxonomy of Breast Cancer International Consortium (METABRIC) dataset, which concerns breast tumors. A 5-fold cross-validation study indicates that EMBC_S performs better than the Cox proportional hazard model and is comparable to the random survival forest method. We show that EBMC_S provides additional information such as sensitivity analyses, which covariates predict each year, and yearly areas under the ROC curve (AUROCs). We conclude that our investigation supports the central hypothesis.

Statistical Analysis of CO 2 Exposed Wells to Predict Long Term Leakage through the Development of an Integrated Neural-Genetic Algorithm

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Guo, Boyun; Duguid, Andrew; Nygaard, Ronar

The objective of this project is to develop a computerized statistical model with the Integrated Neural-Genetic Algorithm (INGA) for predicting the probability of long-term leak of wells in CO 2 sequestration operations. This object has been accomplished by conducting research in three phases: 1) data mining of CO 2-explosed wells, 2) INGA computer model development, and 3) evaluation of the predictive performance of the computer model with data from field tests. Data mining was conducted for 510 wells in two CO 2 sequestration projects in the Texas Gulf Coast region. They are the Hasting West field and Oyster Bayou fieldmore » in the Southern Texas. Missing wellbore integrity data were estimated using an analytical and Finite Element Method (FEM) model. The INGA was first tested for performances of convergence and computing efficiency with the obtained data set of high dimension. It was concluded that the INGA can handle the gathered data set with good accuracy and reasonable computing time after a reduction of dimension with a grouping mechanism. A computerized statistical model with the INGA was then developed based on data pre-processing and grouping. Comprehensive training and testing of the model were carried out to ensure that the model is accurate and efficient enough for predicting the probability of long-term leak of wells in CO 2 sequestration operations. The Cranfield in the southern Mississippi was select as the test site. Observation wells CFU31F2 and CFU31F3 were used for pressure-testing, formation-logging, and cement-sampling. Tools run in the wells include Isolation Scanner, Slim Cement Mapping Tool (SCMT), Cased Hole Formation Dynamics Tester (CHDT), and Mechanical Sidewall Coring Tool (MSCT). Analyses of the obtained data indicate no leak of CO 2 cross the cap zone while it is evident that the well cement sheath was invaded by the CO 2 from the storage zone. This observation is consistent with the result predicted by the INGA model which indicates the well has a CO 2 leak-safe probability of 72%. This comparison implies that the developed INGA model is valid for future use in predicting well leak probability.« less

Mental health indicator interaction in predicting substance abuse treatment outcomes in nevada.

PubMed

Greenfield, Lawrence; Wolf-Branigin, Michael

2009-01-01

Indicators of co-occurring mental health and substance abuse problems routinely collected at treatment admission in 19 State substance abuse treatment systems include a dual diagnosis and a State mental health (cognitive impairment) agency referral. These indicators have yet to be compared as predictors of treatment outcomes. 1. Compare both indices as outcomes predictors individually and interactively. 2. Assess relationship of both indices to other client risk factors, e.g., physical/sexual abuse. Client admission and discharge records from the Nevada substance abuse treatment program, spanning 1995-2001 were reviewed (n = 17,591). Logistic regression analyses predicted treatment completion with significant improvement (33%) and treatment readmission following discharge (21%). Using Cox regression, the number of days from discharge to treatment readmission was predicted. Examined as predictors were two mental health indicators and their interaction with other admission and treatment variables controlled. Neither mental health indicator alone significantly predicted any of the three outcomes; however, the interaction between the two indicators significantly predicted each outcome (p < .05). Having both indices was highly associated with physical/sexual abuse, domestic violence, homelessness, out of labor force and prior treatment. Indicator interactions may help improve substance abuse treatment outcomes prediction.

Wind Prediction Accuracy for Air Traffic Management Decision Support Tools

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cole, Rod; Green, Steve; Jardin, Matt; Schwartz, Barry; Benjamin, Stan

2000-01-01

The performance of Air Traffic Management and flight deck decision support tools depends in large part on the accuracy of the supporting 4D trajectory predictions. This is particularly relevant to conflict prediction and active advisories for the resolution of conflicts and the conformance with of traffic-flow management flow-rate constraints (e.g., arrival metering / required time of arrival). Flight test results have indicated that wind prediction errors may represent the largest source of trajectory prediction error. The tests also discovered relatively large errors (e.g., greater than 20 knots), existing in pockets of space and time critical to ATM DST performance (one or more sectors, greater than 20 minutes), are inadequately represented by the classic RMS aggregate prediction-accuracy studies of the past. To facilitate the identification and reduction of DST-critical wind-prediction errors, NASA has lead a collaborative research and development activity with MIT Lincoln Laboratories and the Forecast Systems Lab of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This activity, begun in 1996, has focussed on the development of key metrics for ATM DST performance, assessment of wind-prediction skill for state of the art systems, and development/validation of system enhancements to improve skill. A 13 month study was conducted for the Denver Center airspace in 1997. Two complementary wind-prediction systems were analyzed and compared to the forecast performance of the then standard 60 km Rapid Update Cycle - version 1 (RUC-1). One system, developed by NOAA, was the prototype 40-km RUC-2 that became operational at NCEP in 1999. RUC-2 introduced a faster cycle (1 hr vs. 3 hr) and improved mesoscale physics. The second system, Augmented Winds (AW), is a prototype en route wind application developed by MITLL based on the Integrated Terminal Wind System (ITWS). AW is run at a local facility (Center) level, and updates RUC predictions based on an optimal interpolation of the latest ACARS reports since the RUC run. This paper presents an overview of the study's results including the identification and use of new large mor wind-prediction accuracy metrics that are key to ATM DST performance.

Micromolecular modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guillet, J. E.

1984-01-01

A reaction kinetics based model of the photodegradation process, which measures all important rate constants, and a computerized model capable of predicting the photodegradation rate and failure modes of a 30 year period, were developed. It is shown that the computerized photodegradation model for polyethylene correctly predicts failure of ELVAX 15 and cross linked ELVAX 150 on outdoor exposure. It is indicated that cross linking ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) does not significantly change its degradation rate. It is shown that the effect of the stabilizer package is approximately equivalent on both polymers. The computerized model indicates that peroxide decomposers and UV absorbers are the most effective stabilizers. It is found that a combination of UV absorbers and a hindered amine light stabilizer (HALS) is the most effective stabilizer system.

Comparative Bacterial Proteomics: Analysis of the Core Genome Concept

PubMed Central

Callister, Stephen J.; McCue, Lee Ann; Turse, Joshua E.; Monroe, Matthew E.; Auberry, Kenneth J.; Smith, Richard D.; Adkins, Joshua N.; Lipton, Mary S.

2008-01-01

While comparative bacterial genomic studies commonly predict a set of genes indicative of common ancestry, experimental validation of the existence of this core genome requires extensive measurement and is typically not undertaken. Enabled by an extensive proteome database developed over six years, we have experimentally verified the expression of proteins predicted from genomic ortholog comparisons among 17 environmental and pathogenic bacteria. More exclusive relationships were observed among the expressed protein content of phenotypically related bacteria, which is indicative of the specific lifestyles associated with these organisms. Although genomic studies can establish relative orthologous relationships among a set of bacteria and propose a set of ancestral genes, our proteomics study establishes expressed lifestyle differences among conserved genes and proposes a set of expressed ancestral traits. PMID:18253490

Sequence stratigraphy and sedimentary study on Mishrif formation of Fauqi Oilfield of Missan in south east Iraq

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sang, Hua; Lin, Changsong; Jiang, Yiming

2017-05-01

The reservoir of Mishrif formation has a large scale distribution of marine facies carbonate sediments in great thickness in central and south east Iraq. Rudist reef and shoal facies limestones of the Mishrif Formation (Late Cenomanian - Middle Turonian) form a great potential reservoir rocks at oilfields and structures of Iraq. Facies modelling was applied to predict the relationship between facies distribution and reservoir characteristics to construct a predictive geologic model which will assist future exploration and development in south east Iraq. Microfacies analysis and electrofacies identification and correlations indicate that the limestone of the Mishrif Formation were mainly deposited in open platform setting. Sequence stratigraphic analyses of the Mishrif Formation indicate 3 third order depositional sequences.

Predicting writing development in dual language instructional contexts: exploring cross-linguistic relationships.

PubMed

Savage, Robert; Kozakewich, Meagan; Genesee, Fred; Erdos, Caroline; Haigh, Corinne

2017-01-01

This study examined whether decoding and linguistic comprehension abilities, broadly defined by the Simple View of Reading, in grade 1 each uniquely predicted the grade 6 writing performance of English-speaking children (n = 76) who were educated bilingually in both English their first language and French, a second language. Prediction was made from (1) English to English; (2) French to French; and (3) English to French. Results showed that both decoding and linguistic comprehension scores predicted writing accuracy but rarely predicted persuasive writing. Within the linguistic comprehension cluster of tests, Formulating Sentences was a strong consistent within- and between-language predictor of writing accuracy. In practical terms, the present results indicate that early screening for later writing ability using measures of sentence formulation early in students' schooling, in their L1 or L2, can provide greatest predictive power and allow teachers to differentiate instruction in the primary grades. Theoretically, the present results argue that there are correlations between reading-related abilities and writing abilities not only within the same language but also across languages, adding to the growing body of evidence for facilitative cross-linguistic relationships between bilinguals' developing languages. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Key risk indicators for accident assessment conditioned on pre-crash vehicle trajectory.

PubMed

Shi, X; Wong, Y D; Li, M Z F; Chai, C

2018-08-01

Accident events are generally unexpected and occur rarely. Pre-accident risk assessment by surrogate indicators is an effective way to identify risk levels and thus boost accident prediction. Herein, the concept of Key Risk Indicator (KRI) is proposed, which assesses risk exposures using hybrid indicators. Seven metrics are shortlisted as the basic indicators in KRI, with evaluation in terms of risk behaviour, risk avoidance, and risk margin. A typical real-world chain-collision accident and its antecedent (pre-crash) road traffic movements are retrieved from surveillance video footage, and a grid remapping method is proposed for data extraction and coordinates transformation. To investigate the feasibility of each indicator in risk assessment, a temporal-spatial case-control is designed. By comparison, Time Integrated Time-to-collision (TIT) performs better in identifying pre-accident risk conditions; while Crash Potential Index (CPI) is helpful in further picking out the severest ones (the near-accident). Based on TIT and CPI, the expressions of KRIs are developed, which enable us to evaluate risk severity with three levels, as well as the likelihood. KRI-based risk assessment also reveals predictive insights about a potential accident, including at-risk vehicles, locations and time. Furthermore, straightforward thresholds are defined flexibly in KRIs, since the impact of different threshold values is found not to be very critical. For better validation, another independent real-world accident sample is examined, and the two results are in close agreement. Hierarchical indicators such as KRIs offer new insights about pre-accident risk exposures, which is helpful for accident assessment and prediction. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Heat sink effects in VPPA welding

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steranka, Paul O., Jr.

1990-01-01

The development of a model for prediction of heat sink effects associated with the Variable Polarity Plasma Arc (VPPA) Welding Process is discussed. The long term goal of this modeling is to provide means for assessing potential heat sink effects and, eventually, to provide indications as to changes in the welding process that could be used to compensate for these effects and maintain the desired weld quality. In addition to the development of a theoretical model, a brief experimental investigation was conducted to demonstrate heat sink effects and to provide an indication of the accuracy of the model.

Personalized prediction of chronic wound healing: an exponential mixed effects model using stereophotogrammetric measurement.

PubMed

Xu, Yifan; Sun, Jiayang; Carter, Rebecca R; Bogie, Kath M

2014-05-01

Stereophotogrammetric digital imaging enables rapid and accurate detailed 3D wound monitoring. This rich data source was used to develop a statistically validated model to provide personalized predictive healing information for chronic wounds. 147 valid wound images were obtained from a sample of 13 category III/IV pressure ulcers from 10 individuals with spinal cord injury. Statistical comparison of several models indicated the best fit for the clinical data was a personalized mixed-effects exponential model (pMEE), with initial wound size and time as predictors and observed wound size as the response variable. Random effects capture personalized differences. Other models are only valid when wound size constantly decreases. This is often not achieved for clinical wounds. Our model accommodates this reality. Two criteria to determine effective healing time outcomes are proposed: r-fold wound size reduction time, t(r-fold), is defined as the time when wound size reduces to 1/r of initial size. t(δ) is defined as the time when the rate of the wound healing/size change reduces to a predetermined threshold δ < 0. Healing rate differs from patient to patient. Model development and validation indicates that accurate monitoring of wound geometry can adaptively predict healing progression and that larger wounds heal more rapidly. Accuracy of the prediction curve in the current model improves with each additional evaluation. Routine assessment of wounds using detailed stereophotogrammetric imaging can provide personalized predictions of wound healing time. Application of a valid model will help the clinical team to determine wound management care pathways. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Rapid assessment of lamp spectrum to quantify ecological effects of light at night.

PubMed

Longcore, Travis; Rodríguez, Airam; Witherington, Blair; Penniman, Jay F; Herf, Lorna; Herf, Michael

2018-06-12

For many decades, the spectral composition of lighting was determined by the type of lamp, which also influenced potential effects of outdoor lights on species and ecosystems. Light-emitting diode (LED) lamps have dramatically increased the range of spectral profiles of light that is economically viable for outdoor lighting. Because of the array of choices, it is necessary to develop methods to predict the effects of different spectral profiles without conducting field studies, especially because older lighting systems are being replaced rapidly. We describe an approach to predict responses of exemplar organisms and groups to lamps of different spectral output by calculating an index based on action spectra from behavioral or visual characteristics of organisms and lamp spectral irradiance. We calculate relative response indices for a range of lamp types and light sources and develop an index that identifies lamps that minimize predicted effects as measured by ecological, physiological, and astronomical indices. Using these assessment metrics, filtered yellow-green and amber LEDs are predicted to have lower effects on wildlife than high pressure sodium lamps, while blue-rich lighting (e.g., K ≥ 2200) would have greater effects. The approach can be updated with new information about behavioral or visual responses of organisms and used to test new lighting products based on spectrum. Together with control of intensity, direction, and duration, the approach can be used to predict and then minimize the adverse effects of lighting and can be tailored to individual species or taxonomic groups. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Genomic-Enabled Prediction of Ordinal Data with Bayesian Logistic Ordinal Regression.

PubMed

Montesinos-López, Osval A; Montesinos-López, Abelardo; Crossa, José; Burgueño, Juan; Eskridge, Kent

2015-08-18

Most genomic-enabled prediction models developed so far assume that the response variable is continuous and normally distributed. The exception is the probit model, developed for ordered categorical phenotypes. In statistical applications, because of the easy implementation of the Bayesian probit ordinal regression (BPOR) model, Bayesian logistic ordinal regression (BLOR) is implemented rarely in the context of genomic-enabled prediction [sample size (n) is much smaller than the number of parameters (p)]. For this reason, in this paper we propose a BLOR model using the Pólya-Gamma data augmentation approach that produces a Gibbs sampler with similar full conditional distributions of the BPOR model and with the advantage that the BPOR model is a particular case of the BLOR model. We evaluated the proposed model by using simulation and two real data sets. Results indicate that our BLOR model is a good alternative for analyzing ordinal data in the context of genomic-enabled prediction with the probit or logit link. Copyright © 2015 Montesinos-López et al.

Comparing statistical and machine learning classifiers: alternatives for predictive modeling in human factors research.

PubMed

Carnahan, Brian; Meyer, Gérard; Kuntz, Lois-Ann

2003-01-01

Multivariate classification models play an increasingly important role in human factors research. In the past, these models have been based primarily on discriminant analysis and logistic regression. Models developed from machine learning research offer the human factors professional a viable alternative to these traditional statistical classification methods. To illustrate this point, two machine learning approaches--genetic programming and decision tree induction--were used to construct classification models designed to predict whether or not a student truck driver would pass his or her commercial driver license (CDL) examination. The models were developed and validated using the curriculum scores and CDL exam performances of 37 student truck drivers who had completed a 320-hr driver training course. Results indicated that the machine learning classification models were superior to discriminant analysis and logistic regression in terms of predictive accuracy. Actual or potential applications of this research include the creation of models that more accurately predict human performance outcomes.

Artificial neural network modelling of a large-scale wastewater treatment plant operation.

PubMed

Güçlü, Dünyamin; Dursun, Sükrü

2010-11-01

Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), a method of artificial intelligence method, provide effective predictive models for complex processes. Three independent ANN models trained with back-propagation algorithm were developed to predict effluent chemical oxygen demand (COD), suspended solids (SS) and aeration tank mixed liquor suspended solids (MLSS) concentrations of the Ankara central wastewater treatment plant. The appropriate architecture of ANN models was determined through several steps of training and testing of the models. ANN models yielded satisfactory predictions. Results of the root mean square error, mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error were 3.23, 2.41 mg/L and 5.03% for COD; 1.59, 1.21 mg/L and 17.10% for SS; 52.51, 44.91 mg/L and 3.77% for MLSS, respectively, indicating that the developed model could be efficiently used. The results overall also confirm that ANN modelling approach may have a great implementation potential for simulation, precise performance prediction and process control of wastewater treatment plants.

Exploring the QSAR's predictive truthfulness of the novel N-tuple discrete derivative indices on benchmark datasets.

PubMed

Martínez-Santiago, O; Marrero-Ponce, Y; Vivas-Reyes, R; Rivera-Borroto, O M; Hurtado, E; Treto-Suarez, M A; Ramos, Y; Vergara-Murillo, F; Orozco-Ugarriza, M E; Martínez-López, Y

2017-05-01

Graph derivative indices (GDIs) have recently been defined over N-atoms (N = 2, 3 and 4) simultaneously, which are based on the concept of derivatives in discrete mathematics (finite difference), metaphorical to the derivative concept in classical mathematical analysis. These molecular descriptors (MDs) codify topo-chemical and topo-structural information based on the concept of the derivative of a molecular graph with respect to a given event (S) over duplex, triplex and quadruplex relations of atoms (vertices). These GDIs have been successfully applied in the description of physicochemical properties like reactivity, solubility and chemical shift, among others, and in several comparative quantitative structure activity/property relationship (QSAR/QSPR) studies. Although satisfactory results have been obtained in previous modelling studies with the aforementioned indices, it is necessary to develop new, more rigorous analysis to assess the true predictive performance of the novel structure codification. So, in the present paper, an assessment and statistical validation of the performance of these novel approaches in QSAR studies are executed, as well as a comparison with those of other QSAR procedures reported in the literature. To achieve the main aim of this research, QSARs were developed on eight chemical datasets widely used as benchmarks in the evaluation/validation of several QSAR methods and/or many different MDs (fundamentally 3D MDs). Three to seven variable QSAR models were built for each chemical dataset, according to the original dissection into training/test sets. The models were developed by using multiple linear regression (MLR) coupled with a genetic algorithm as the feature wrapper selection technique in the MobyDigs software. Each family of GDIs (for duplex, triplex and quadruplex) behaves similarly in all modelling, although there were some exceptions. However, when all families were used in combination, the results achieved were quantitatively higher than those reported by other authors in similar experiments. Comparisons with respect to external correlation coefficients (q 2 ext ) revealed that the models based on GDIs possess superior predictive ability in seven of the eight datasets analysed, outperforming methodologies based on similar or more complex techniques and confirming the good predictive power of the obtained models. For the q 2 ext values, the non-parametric comparison revealed significantly different results to those reported so far, which demonstrated that the models based on DIVATI's indices presented the best global performance and yielded significantly better predictions than the 12 0-3D QSAR procedures used in the comparison. Therefore, GDIs are suitable for structure codification of the molecules and constitute a good alternative to build QSARs for the prediction of physicochemical, biological and environmental endpoints.

A new method for enhancer prediction based on deep belief network.

PubMed

Bu, Hongda; Gan, Yanglan; Wang, Yang; Zhou, Shuigeng; Guan, Jihong

2017-10-16

Studies have shown that enhancers are significant regulatory elements to play crucial roles in gene expression regulation. Since enhancers are unrelated to the orientation and distance to their target genes, it is a challenging mission for scholars and researchers to accurately predicting distal enhancers. In the past years, with the high-throughout ChiP-seq technologies development, several computational techniques emerge to predict enhancers using epigenetic or genomic features. Nevertheless, the inconsistency of computational models across different cell-lines and the unsatisfactory prediction performance call for further research in this area. Here, we propose a new Deep Belief Network (DBN) based computational method for enhancer prediction, which is called EnhancerDBN. This method combines diverse features, composed of DNA sequence compositional features, DNA methylation and histone modifications. Our computational results indicate that 1) EnhancerDBN outperforms 13 existing methods in prediction, and 2) GC content and DNA methylation can serve as relevant features for enhancer prediction. Deep learning is effective in boosting the performance of enhancer prediction.

Prediction of Size Effects in Notched Laminates Using Continuum Damage Mechanics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Camanho, D. P.; Maimi, P.; Davila, C. G.

2007-01-01

This paper examines the use of a continuum damage model to predict strength and size effects in notched carbon-epoxy laminates. The effects of size and the development of a fracture process zone before final failure are identified in an experimental program. The continuum damage model is described and the resulting predictions of size effects are compared with alternative approaches: the point stress and the inherent flaw models, the Linear-Elastic Fracture Mechanics approach, and the strength of materials approach. The results indicate that the continuum damage model is the most accurate technique to predict size effects in composites. Furthermore, the continuum damage model does not require any calibration and it is applicable to general geometries and boundary conditions.

The Natural History of IgE-Mediated Food Allergy: Can Skin Prick Tests and Serum-Specific IgE Predict the Resolution of Food Allergy?

PubMed Central

Peters, Rachel L.; Gurrin, Lyle C.; Dharmage, Shyamali C.; Koplin, Jennifer J.; Allen, Katrina J.

2013-01-01

IgE-mediated food allergy is a transient condition for some children, however there are few indices to predict when and in whom food allergy will resolve. Skin prick test (SPT) and serum-specific IgE levels (sIgE) are usually monitored in the management of food allergy and are used to predict the development of tolerance or persistence of food allergy. The aim of this article is to review the published literature that investigated the predictive value of SPT and sIgE in development of tolerance in children with a previous diagnosis of peanut, egg and milk allergy. A systematic search identified twenty-six studies, of which most reported SPT or sIgE thresholds which predicted persistent or resolved allergy. However, results were inconsistent between studies. Previous research was hampered by several limitations including the absence of gold standard test to diagnose food allergy or tolerance, biased samples in retrospective audits and lack of systematic protocols for triggering re-challenges. There is a need for population-based, prospective studies that use the gold standard oral food challenge (OFC) to diagnose food allergy at baseline and follow-up to develop SPT and sIgE thresholds that predict the course of food allergy. PMID:24132133

Water Pollution Prediction in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area and Countermeasures for Sustainable Development of the Water Environment

PubMed Central

Huang, Shuaijin; Qu, Xuexin

2017-01-01

The Three Gorges Project was implemented in 1994 to promote sustainable water resource use and development of the water environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (hereafter “Reservoir Area”). However, massive discharge of wastewater along the river threatens these goals; therefore, this study employs a grey prediction model (GM) to predict the annual emissions of primary pollution sources, including industrial wastewater, domestic wastewater, and oily and domestic wastewater from ships, that influence the Three Gorges Reservoir Area water environment. First, we optimize the initial values of a traditional GM (1,1) model, and build a new GM (1,1) model that minimizes the sum of squares of the relative simulation errors. Second, we use the new GM (1,1) model to simulate historical annual emissions data for the four pollution sources and thereby test the effectiveness of the model. Third, we predict the annual emissions of the four pollution sources in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area for a future period. The prediction results reveal the annual emission trends for the major wastewater types, and indicate the primary sources of water pollution in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. Based on our predictions, we suggest several countermeasures against water pollution and towards the sustainable development of the water environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. PMID:29077006

The Development of Statistical Models for Predicting Surgical Site Infections in Japan: Toward a Statistical Model-Based Standardized Infection Ratio.

PubMed

Fukuda, Haruhisa; Kuroki, Manabu

2016-03-01

To develop and internally validate a surgical site infection (SSI) prediction model for Japan. Retrospective observational cohort study. We analyzed surveillance data submitted to the Japan Nosocomial Infections Surveillance system for patients who had undergone target surgical procedures from January 1, 2010, through December 31, 2012. Logistic regression analyses were used to develop statistical models for predicting SSIs. An SSI prediction model was constructed for each of the procedure categories by statistically selecting the appropriate risk factors from among the collected surveillance data and determining their optimal categorization. Standard bootstrapping techniques were applied to assess potential overfitting. The C-index was used to compare the predictive performances of the new statistical models with those of models based on conventional risk index variables. The study sample comprised 349,987 cases from 428 participant hospitals throughout Japan, and the overall SSI incidence was 7.0%. The C-indices of the new statistical models were significantly higher than those of the conventional risk index models in 21 (67.7%) of the 31 procedure categories (P<.05). No significant overfitting was detected. Japan-specific SSI prediction models were shown to generally have higher accuracy than conventional risk index models. These new models may have applications in assessing hospital performance and identifying high-risk patients in specific procedure categories.

Clinical use of computational modeling for surgical planning of arteriovenous fistula for hemodialysis.

PubMed

Bozzetto, Michela; Rota, Stefano; Vigo, Valentina; Casucci, Francesco; Lomonte, Carlo; Morale, Walter; Senatore, Massimo; Tazza, Luigi; Lodi, Massimo; Remuzzi, Giuseppe; Remuzzi, Andrea

2017-03-14

Autogenous arteriovenous fistula (AVF) is the best vascular access (VA) for hemodialysis, but its creation is still a critical procedure. Physical examination, vascular mapping and doppler ultrasound (DUS) evaluation are recommended for AVF planning, but they can not provide direct indication on AVF outcome. We recently developed and validated in a clinical trial a patient-specific computational model to predict pre-operatively the blood flow volume (BFV) in AVF for different surgical configuration on the basis of demographic, clinical and DUS data. In the present investigation we tested power of prediction and usability of the computational model in routine clinical setting. We developed a web-based system (AVF.SIM) that integrates the computational model in a single procedure, including data collection and transfer, simulation management and data storage. A usability test on observational data was designed to compare predicted vs. measured BFV and evaluate the acceptance of the system in the clinical setting. Six Italian nephrology units were involved in the evaluation for a 6-month period that included all incident dialysis patients with indication for AVF surgery. Out of the 74 patients, complete data from 60 patients were included in the final dataset. Predicted brachial BFV at 40 days after surgery showed a good correlation with measured values (in average 787 ± 306 vs. 751 ± 267 mL/min, R = 0.81, p < 0.001). For distal AVFs the mean difference (±SD) between predicted vs. measured BFV was -2.0 ± 20.9%, with 50% of predicted values in the range of 86-121% of measured BFV. Feedbacks provided by clinicians indicate that AVF.SIM is easy to use and well accepted in clinical routine, with limited additional workload. Clinical use of computational modeling for AVF surgical planning can help the surgeon to select the best surgical strategy, reducing AVF early failures and complications. This approach allows individualization of VA care, with the aim to reduce the costs associated with VA dysfunction, and to improve AVF clinical outcome.

Psychometric prediction of penitentiary recidivism.

PubMed

Medina García, Pedro M; Baños Rivera, Rosa M

2016-05-01

Attempts to predict prison recidivism based on the personality have not been very successful. This study aims to provide data on recidivism prediction based on the scores on a personality questionnaire. For this purpose, a predictive model combining the actuarial procedure with a posteriori probability was developed, consisting of the probabilistic calculation of the effective verification of the event once it has already occurred. Cuestionario de Personalidad Situacional (CPS; Fernández, Seisdedos, & Mielgo, 1998) was applied to 978 male inmates classified as recidivists or non-recidivists. High predictive power was achieved, with the area under the curve (AUC) of 0.85 (p <.001; Se = 0.012; 95% CI [0.826, 0.873]. The answers to the CPS items made it possible to properly discriminate 77.3% of the participants. These data indicate the important role of the personality as a key factor in understanding delinquency and predicting recidivism.

Modulation of Bjerknes feedback on the decadal variations in ENSO predictability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Fei; Fang, Xiang-Hui; Zhu, Jiang; Yu, Jin-Yi; Li, Xi-Chen

2016-12-01

Clear decadal variations exist in the predictability of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with the most recent decade having the lowest ENSO predictability in the past six decades. The Bjerknes Feedback (BF) intensity, which dominates the development of ENSO, has been proposed to determine ENSO predictability. Here we demonstrate that decadal variations in BF intensity are largely a result of the sensitivity of the zonal winds to the zonal sea level pressure (SLP) gradient in the equatorial Pacific. Furthermore, the results show that during low-ENSO predictability decades, zonal wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific are more linked to SLP variations in the off-equatorial Pacific, which can then transfer this information into surface temperature and precipitation fields through the BF, suggesting a weakening in the ocean-atmosphere coupling in the tropical Pacific. This result indicates that more attention should be paid to off-equatorial processes in the prediction of ENSO.

HART-II: Prediction of Blade-Vortex Interaction Loading

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lim, Joon W.; Tung, Chee; Yu, Yung H.; Burley, Casey L.; Brooks, Thomas; Boyd, Doug; vanderWall, Berend; Schneider, Oliver; Richard, Hugues; Raffel, Markus

2003-01-01

During the HART-I data analysis, the need for comprehensive wake data was found including vortex creation and aging, and its re-development after blade-vortex interaction. In October 2001, US Army AFDD, NASA Langley, German DLR, French ONERA and Dutch DNW performed the HART-II test as an international joint effort. The main objective was to focus on rotor wake measurement using a PIV technique along with the comprehensive data of blade deflections, airloads, and acoustics. Three prediction teams made preliminary correlation efforts with HART-II data: a joint US team of US Army AFDD and NASA Langley, German DLR, and French ONERA. The predicted results showed significant improvements over the HART-I predicted results, computed about several years ago, which indicated that there has been better understanding of complicated wake modeling in the comprehensive rotorcraft analysis. All three teams demonstrated satisfactory prediction capabilities, in general, though there were slight deviations of prediction accuracies for various disciplines.

The predictive performance of a path-dependent exotic-option credit risk model in the emerging market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Dar-Hsin; Chou, Heng-Chih; Wang, David; Zaabar, Rim

2011-06-01

Most empirical research of the path-dependent, exotic-option credit risk model focuses on developed markets. Taking Taiwan as an example, this study investigates the bankruptcy prediction performance of the path-dependent, barrier option model in the emerging market. We adopt Duan's (1994) [11], (2000) [12] transformed-data maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method to directly estimate the unobserved model parameters, and compare the predictive ability of the barrier option model to the commonly adopted credit risk model, Merton's model. Our empirical findings show that the barrier option model is more powerful than Merton's model in predicting bankruptcy in the emerging market. Moreover, we find that the barrier option model predicts bankruptcy much better for highly-leveraged firms. Finally, our findings indicate that the prediction accuracy of the credit risk model can be improved by higher asset liquidity and greater financial transparency.

NASA progress in aircraft noise prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raney, J. P.; Padula, S. L.; Zorumski, W. E.

1981-01-01

Langley Research Center efforts to develop a methodology for predicting the effective perceived noise level (EPNL) produced by jet-powered CTOL aircraft to an accuracy of + or - 1.5 dB are summarized with emphasis on the aircraft noise prediction program (ANOPP) which contains a complete set of prediction methods for CTOL aircraft including propulsion system noise sources, aerodynamic or airframe noise sources, forward speed effects, a layered atmospheric model with molecular absorption, ground impedance effects including excess ground attenuation, and a received noise contouring capability. The present state of ANOPP is described and its accuracy and applicability to the preliminary aircraft design process is assessed. Areas are indicated where further theoretical and experimental research on noise prediction are needed. Topics covered include the elements of the noise prediction problem which are incorporated in ANOPP, results of comparisons of ANOPP calculations with measured noise levels, and progress toward treating noise as a design constraint in aircraft system studies.

Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Model for Long-Circulating Inorganic Nanoparticles.

PubMed

Liang, Xiaowen; Wang, Haolu; Grice, Jeffrey E; Li, Li; Liu, Xin; Xu, Zhi Ping; Roberts, Michael S

2016-02-10

A physiologically based pharmacokinetic model was developed for accurately characterizing and predicting the in vivo fate of long-circulating inorganic nanoparticles (NPs). This model is built based on direct visualization of NP disposition details at the organ and cellular level. It was validated with multiple data sets, indicating robust inter-route and interspecies predictive capability. We suggest that the biodistribution of long-circulating inorganic NPs is determined by the uptake and release of NPs by phagocytic cells in target organs.

The Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool: A Study of Reliability and Validity.

PubMed

Poe, Stephanie S; Dawson, Patricia B; Cvach, Maria; Burnett, Margaret; Kumble, Sowmya; Lewis, Maureen; Thompson, Carol B; Hill, Elizabeth E

Patient falls and fall-related injury remain a safety concern. The Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool (JHFRAT) was developed to facilitate early detection of risk for anticipated physiologic falls in adult inpatients. Psychometric properties in acute care settings have not yet been fully established; this study sought to fill that gap. Results indicate that the JHFRAT is reliable, with high sensitivity and negative predictive validity. Specificity and positive predictive validity were lower than expected.

The potential of at-home prediction of the formation of urolithiasis by simple multi-frequency electrical conductivity of the urine and the comparison of its performance with urine ion-related indices, color and specific gravity.

PubMed

Silverio, Angelito A; Chung, Wen-Yaw; Cheng, Cheanyeh; Wang, Hai-Lung; Kung, Chien-Min; Chen, Jun; Tsai, Vincent F S

2016-04-01

It is important to control daily diet, water intake and life style as well as monitor the quality of urine for urolithiasis prevention. For decades, many ion-related indices have been developed for predicting the formation of urinary stones or urolithiasis, such as EQUILs, relative supersaturation (RSS), Tiselius indices (TI), Robertson risk factor algorithms (RRFA) and more recently, the Bonn risk index. However, they mostly demand robust laboratory analysis, are work-intensive, and even require complex computational programs to get the concentration patterns of several urine analytes. A simple and fast platform for measuring multi-frequency electrical conductivity (MFEC) of morning spot urine (random urine) to predict the onset of urolithiasis was implemented in this study. The performance thereof was compared to ion-related indices, urine color and specific gravity. The concentrations of relevant ions, color, specific gravity (SG) and MFEC (MFEC tested at 1, 10, 100, 5001 KHz and 1 MHz) of 80 random urine samples were examined after collection. Then, the urine samples were stored at 4 °C for 24 h to determine whether sedimentation would occur or not. Ion-activity product index of calcium oxalate (AP(CaOx) EQ2) was calculated. The correlation between AP(CaOx) EQ2, urine color, SG and MFEC were analyzed. AP(CaOx) EQ2, urine color and MFEC (at 5 frequencies) all demonstrated good prediction (p = 0.01, 0.01, 0.01, respectively) for stone formation. The positive correlation between AP(CaOx) EQ2 and MFEC is also significant (p = 0.01). MFEC provides a good metric for predicting the onset of urolithiasis, which is comparable to conventional ion-related indices and urine color. This technology can be implemented with much ease for objectively monitoring the quality of urine at points-of-care or at home.

Development and application of a tyrosinase-based time-temperature indicator (TTI) for determining the quality of turbot sashimi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Fengjuan; Ge, Lei; Li, Zhenxing; Lin, Hong; Mao, Xiangzhao

2017-10-01

Time-temperature indicators (TTIs) are convenient intuitive devices that are widely used to predict food quality. The aim of this study is to develop a new simple device which can be attached to food packages as a quality indicator for turbot sashimi. In this study, a solid TTI based on the reaction between tyrosinase and tyrosine was developed. The Arrhenius behavior of this enzymatic TTI was studied. The kinetics of the tyrosinase-based TTI was investigated in the form of color change from colorless to dark black induced by the enzymatic reaction. The mathematical formula for the color alterations as a function of time and temperature was established. The longest indication time for the developed TTI was 50 hours at 4°C. The activation energy of the tyrosinase-based TTI was 0.409 kJ mol-1. The suitability of the tyrosinase-based TTI was validated for turbot sashimi using total plate count. The feasibility of using this TTI as a quality indicator for turbot sashimi was assessed based on the activation energy and indication time. Therefore, the tyrosinasebased TTI system developed in this study could be used as an effective tool for monitoring the quality changes of turbot sashimi during the distribution and storage.

Predicting the mental health of college students with psychological capital.

PubMed

Selvaraj, Priscilla Rose; Bhat, Christine Suniti

2018-06-01

Behavioral health treatment is grounded in the medical model with language of deficits and problems, rather than resources and strengths. With developments in the field of positive psychology, re-focusing on well-being rather than illness is possible. The primary purpose of this study was to examine relationships and predictions that exist between levels of mental health in college students, i.e., flourishing, moderate mental health, and languishing, and psychological capital (PsyCap). For this cross-sectional, exploratory study survey method was used for data collection and for analyses of results a series of descriptive, correlation, ANOVA, and multiple regression analyses were done. Results indicated that developing positive psychological strengths such as hope, efficacy, resilience, and optimism (acronym HERO) within college students significantly increased their positive mental health. Based on the predictive nature of PsyCap, mental health professionals may engage more in creating programs incorporating PsyCap development intervention for college students. Implications for counseling and programmatic services for college students are presented along with suggestions for future research.

Predictive modeling studies for the ecotoxicity of ionic liquids towards the green algae Scenedesmus vacuolatus.

PubMed

Das, Rudra Narayan; Roy, Kunal

2014-06-01

Hazardous potential of ionic liquids is becoming an issue of high concern with increasing application of these compounds in various industrial processes. Predictive toxicological modeling on ionic liquids provides a rational assessment strategy and aids in developing suitable guidance for designing novel analogues. The present study attempts to explore the chemical features of ionic liquids responsible for their ecotoxicity towards the green algae Scenedesmus vacuolatus by developing mathematical models using extended topochemical atom (ETA) indices along with other categories of chemical descriptors. The entire study has been conducted with reference to the OECD guidelines for QSAR model development using predictive classification and regression modeling strategies. The best models from both the analyses showed that ecotoxicity of ionic liquids can be decreased by reducing chain length of cationic substituents and increasing hydrogen bond donor feature in cations, and replacing bulky unsaturated anions with simple saturated moiety having less lipophilic heteroatoms. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hygrothermomechanical fracture stress criteria for fiber composites with sense-parity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, C. C.; Ginty, C. A.

1983-01-01

Hygrothermomechanical fracture stress criteria are developed and evaluated for unidirectional composites (plies) with sense-parity. These criteria explicity quantify the individual contributions of applied, hygral and thermal stresses as well as couplings among these stresses. The criteria are for maximum stress, maximum strain, internal friction, work-to-fracture and combined-stress fracture. Predicted results obtained indicate that first ply failure will occur at stress levels lower than those predicted using criteria currently available in the literature. Also, the contribution of the various stress couplings (predictable only by fracture criteria with sense-parity) is significant to first ply failure and attendant fracture modes.

Extension-twist coupling of composite circular tubes with application to tilt rotor blade design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nixon, Mark W.

1987-01-01

This investigation was conducted to determine if twist deformation required for the design of full-scale extension-twist-coupled tilt-rotor blades can be achieved within material design limit loads, and to demonstrate the accuracy of a coupled-beam analysis in predicting twist deformations. Two extension-twist-coupled tilt-rotor blade designs were developed based on theoretically optimum aerodynamic twist distributions. The designs indicated a twist rate requirement of between .216 and .333 deg/in. Agreement between axial tests and analytical predictions was within 10 percent at design limit loads. Agreement between the torsion tests and predictions was within 11 percent.

Development and validation of a predictive equation for lean body mass in children and adolescents.

PubMed

Foster, Bethany J; Platt, Robert W; Zemel, Babette S

2012-05-01

Lean body mass (LBM) is not easy to measure directly in the field or clinical setting. Equations to predict LBM from simple anthropometric measures, which account for the differing contributions of fat and lean to body weight at different ages and levels of adiposity, would be useful to both human biologists and clinicians. To develop and validate equations to predict LBM in children and adolescents across the entire range of the adiposity spectrum. Dual energy X-ray absorptiometry was used to measure LBM in 836 healthy children (437 females) and linear regression was used to develop sex-specific equations to estimate LBM from height, weight, age, body mass index (BMI) for age z-score and population ancestry. Equations were validated using bootstrapping methods and in a local independent sample of 332 children and in national data collected by NHANES. The mean difference between measured and predicted LBM was - 0.12% (95% limits of agreement - 11.3% to 8.5%) for males and - 0.14% ( - 11.9% to 10.9%) for females. Equations performed equally well across the entire adiposity spectrum, as estimated by BMI z-score. Validation indicated no over-fitting. LBM was predicted within 5% of measured LBM in the validation sample. The equations estimate LBM accurately from simple anthropometric measures.

A calibration hierarchy for risk models was defined: from utopia to empirical data.

PubMed

Van Calster, Ben; Nieboer, Daan; Vergouwe, Yvonne; De Cock, Bavo; Pencina, Michael J; Steyerberg, Ewout W

2016-06-01

Calibrated risk models are vital for valid decision support. We define four levels of calibration and describe implications for model development and external validation of predictions. We present results based on simulated data sets. A common definition of calibration is "having an event rate of R% among patients with a predicted risk of R%," which we refer to as "moderate calibration." Weaker forms of calibration only require the average predicted risk (mean calibration) or the average prediction effects (weak calibration) to be correct. "Strong calibration" requires that the event rate equals the predicted risk for every covariate pattern. This implies that the model is fully correct for the validation setting. We argue that this is unrealistic: the model type may be incorrect, the linear predictor is only asymptotically unbiased, and all nonlinear and interaction effects should be correctly modeled. In addition, we prove that moderate calibration guarantees nonharmful decision making. Finally, results indicate that a flexible assessment of calibration in small validation data sets is problematic. Strong calibration is desirable for individualized decision support but unrealistic and counter productive by stimulating the development of overly complex models. Model development and external validation should focus on moderate calibration. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Microgravity Propellant Tank Geyser Analysis and Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thornton, Randall J.; Hochstein, John I.; Turner, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

An established correlation for geyser height prediction of an axial jet inflow into a microgravity propellant tank was analyzed and an effort to develop an improved correlation was made. The original correlation, developed using data from ethanol flow in small-scale drop tower tests, uses the jet-Weber number and the jet-Bond number to predict geyser height. A new correlation was developed from the same set of experimental data using the jet-Weber number and both the jet-Bond number and tank-Bond number to describe the geyser formation. The resulting correlation produced nearly a 40% reduction in geyser height predictive error compared to the original correlation with experimental data. Two additional tanks were computationally modeled in addition to the small-scale tank used in the drop tower testing. One of these tanks was a 50% enlarged small-scale tank and the other a full-scale 2 m radius tank. Simulations were also run for liquid oxygen and liquid hydrogen. Results indicated that the new correlation outperformed the original correlation in geyser height prediction under most circumstances. The new correlation has also shown a superior ability to recognize the difference between flow patterns II (geyser formation only) and III (pooling at opposite end of tank from the bulk fluid region).

Neural Network Model for Survival and Growth of Salmonella enterica Serotype 8,20:-:z6 in Ground Chicken Thigh Meat during Cold Storage: Extrapolation to Other Serotypes.

PubMed

Oscar, T P

2015-10-01

Mathematical models that predict the behavior of human bacterial pathogens in food are valuable tools for assessing and managing this risk to public health. A study was undertaken to develop a model for predicting the behavior of Salmonella enterica serotype 8,20:-:z6 in chicken meat during cold storage and to determine how well the model would predict the behavior of other serotypes of Salmonella stored under the same conditions. To develop the model, ground chicken thigh meat (0.75 cm(3)) was inoculated with 1.7 log Salmonella 8,20:-:z6 and then stored for 0 to 8 -8 to 16°C. An automated miniaturized most-probable-number (MPN) method was developed and used for the enumeration of Salmonella. Commercial software (Excel and the add-in program NeuralTools) was used to develop a multilayer feedforward neural network model with one hidden layer of two nodes. The performance of the model was evaluated using the acceptable prediction zone (APZ) method. The number of Salmonella in ground chicken thigh meat stayed the same (P > 0.05) during 8 days of storage at -8 to 8°C but increased (P < 0.05) during storage at 9°C (+0.6 log) to 16°C (+5.1 log). The proportion of residual values (observed minus predicted values) in an APZ (pAPZ) from -1 log (fail-safe) to 0.5 log (fail-dangerous) was 0.939 for the data (n = 426 log MPN values) used in the development of the model. The model had a pAPZ of 0.944 or 0.954 when it was extrapolated to test data (n = 108 log MPN per serotype) for other serotypes (S. enterica serotype Typhimurium var 5-, Kentucky, Typhimurium, and Thompson) of Salmonella in ground chicken thigh meat stored for 0 to 8 days at -4, 4, 12, or 16°C under the same experimental conditions. A pAPZ of ≥0.7 indicates that a model provides predictions with acceptable bias and accuracy. Thus, the results indicated that the model provided valid predictions of the survival and growth of Salmonella 8,20:-:z6 in ground chicken thigh meat stored for 0 to 8 days at -8 to 16°C and that the model was validated for extrapolation to four other serotypes of Salmonella.

Early identification of posttraumatic stress following military deployment: Application of machine learning methods to a prospective study of Danish soldiers.

PubMed

Karstoft, Karen-Inge; Statnikov, Alexander; Andersen, Søren B; Madsen, Trine; Galatzer-Levy, Isaac R

2015-09-15

Pre-deployment identification of soldiers at risk for long-term posttraumatic stress psychopathology after home coming is important to guide decisions about deployment. Early post-deployment identification can direct early interventions to those in need and thereby prevents the development of chronic psychopathology. Both hold significant public health benefits given large numbers of deployed soldiers, but has so far not been achieved. Here, we aim to assess the potential for pre- and early post-deployment prediction of resilience or posttraumatic stress development in soldiers by application of machine learning (ML) methods. ML feature selection and prediction algorithms were applied to a prospective cohort of 561 Danish soldiers deployed to Afghanistan in 2009 to identify unique risk indicators and forecast long-term posttraumatic stress responses. Robust pre- and early postdeployment risk indicators were identified, and included individual PTSD symptoms as well as total level of PTSD symptoms, previous trauma and treatment, negative emotions, and thought suppression. The predictive performance of these risk indicators combined was assessed by cross-validation. Together, these indicators forecasted long term posttraumatic stress responses with high accuracy (pre-deployment: AUC = 0.84 (95% CI = 0.81-0.87), post-deployment: AUC = 0.88 (95% CI = 0.85-0.91)). This study utilized a previously collected data set and was therefore not designed to exhaust the potential of ML methods. Further, the study relied solely on self-reported measures. Pre-deployment and early post-deployment identification of risk for long-term posttraumatic psychopathology are feasible and could greatly reduce the public health costs of war. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

DEVELOPMENT OF MICROBIAL METAGENOMIC MARKERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

The microbiological water quality standards established by EPA depend on culturing fecal indicator bacteria to predict the risks associated with water usage. For decades this has been the favored approach to microbiological monitoring in spite of the fact that culture-based meth...

Phenodynamics of production and chemical pools in mayapple and flowering dogwood

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Taylor, F.G. Jr.

1991-01-01

The objective of this study is to provide an understanding of the seasonality of biomass production and chemical storage among selected forest species as an aid to the analysis and management of a forest ecosystem model. The specific goals to accomplish the objectives included: (1) the construction of phenological calendars to be superimposed on the civil calendar, such that the seasons of the year are not marked by calendar dates but rather by dated groups of phenological events; (2) to develop a capability to predict onset of the generative phase (flowering) from heat unit summation methods; (3) to illustrate themore » role of phenology to biomass production and chemical storage in two indicator species, mayapple and flowering dogwood; and (4) to develop the capability to predict aboveground and below ground standing crop biomass in dogwood. Observations in this study focused on the generative phases (flowering) of individual plants and colonies of plants as indicators of productivity. 16 figs., 11 tabs.« less

Non-invasive prediction of hematocrit levels by portable visible and near-infrared spectrophotometer.

PubMed

Sakudo, Akikazu; Kato, Yukiko Hakariya; Kuratsune, Hirohiko; Ikuta, Kazuyoshi

2009-10-01

After blood donation, in some individuals having polycythemia, dehydration causes anemia. Although the hematocrit (Ht) level is closely related to anemia, the current method of measuring Ht is performed after blood drawing. Furthermore, the monitoring of Ht levels contributes to a healthy life. Therefore, a non-invasive test for Ht is warranted for the safe donation of blood and good quality of life. A non-invasive procedure for the prediction of hematocrit levels was developed on the basis of a chemometric analysis of visible and near-infrared (Vis-NIR) spectra of the thumbs using portable spectrophotometer. Transmittance spectra in the 600- to 1100-nm region from thumbs of Japanese volunteers were subjected to a partial least squares regression (PLSR) analysis and leave-out cross-validation to develop chemometric models for predicting Ht levels. Ht levels of masked samples predicted by this model from Vis-NIR spectra provided a coefficient of determination in prediction of 0.6349 with a standard error of prediction of 3.704% and a detection limit in prediction of 17.14%, indicating that the model is applicable for normal and abnormal value in Ht level. These results suggest portable Vis-NIR spectrophotometer to have potential for the non-invasive measurement of Ht levels with a combination of PLSR analysis.

Usefulness of nutritional indices and classifications in predicting death of malnourished children.

PubMed Central

Briend, A; Dykewicz, C; Graven, K; Mazumder, R N; Wojtyniak, B; Bennish, M

1986-01-01

The usefulness of nutritional indices and classifications in predicting the death of children under 5 years old was evaluated by comparing measurements of 34 children with diarrhoea who died in a Dhaka hospital with those of 318 patients who were discharged in a satisfactory condition. In a logistic regression analysis mid-upper arm circumference was found to be as effective as other nutritional indices in predicting death. Combinations of different indices did not improve the prediction. Arm circumference might be preferable to more complex criteria for predicting the death of malnourished children. PMID:3089529

An Investigation into How Measures of Student Teacher Performance that Indicate Developmentally Informed Practice Are Related to a Measure of Overall Student Teaching Proficiency at a Private Northwest Comprehensive University

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Buchanan, Thomas D.

2011-01-01

Indicators of the proficiency of teacher candidates at applying knowledge of child development to teaching and learning were examined to see if they predict the overall success of the candidates full-time student teaching. The assessment instrument, the Full-Time Student Teaching Summary Report (FSTSR), was found statistically reliable and…

An assay that may predict the development of IgG enhancing allergen-specific IgE binding during birch immunotherapy

PubMed Central

Selb, R.; Eckl-Dorna, J.; Vrtala, S.; Valenta, R.; Niederberger, V.

2017-01-01

Background It has been shown that birch pollen immunotherapy can induce IgG antibodies which enhance IgE binding to Bet v 1. We aimed to develop a serological assay to predict the development of antibodies which enhance IgE binding to Bet v 1 during immunotherapy. Methods In 18 patients treated by Bet v 1-fragment-specific immunotherapy, the effects of IgG antibodies specific for the fragments on the binding of IgE antibodies to Bet v 1 were measured by ELISA. Blocking and possible enhancing effects on IgE binding were compared with skin sensitivity to Bet v 1 after treatment. Results We found that fragment-specific IgG enhanced IgE binding to Bet v 1 in two patients who also showed an increase of skin sensitivity to Bet v 1. Conclusion Our results indicate that it may be possible to develop serological tests which predict the induction of unfavourable IgG antibodies enhancing the binding of IgE to Bet v 1 during immunotherapy. PMID:23998344

Exposure to Family Violence and Internalizing and Externalizing Problems Among Spanish Adolescents.

PubMed

Izaguirre, Ainhoa; Calvete, Esther

2018-04-01

Exposure to intimate partner violence (IPV) and child maltreatment may have devastating consequences on children's development. The aim of this research was to examine the predictive associations between exposure to violence at home (witnessing violence against the mother and/or direct victimization by the parents) and adolescent internalizing and externalizing problems. A total of 613 Spanish adolescents (13-18 years) took part in this study. Results indicate that psychological victimization by the parents predicted an increase in anxious/depressive symptoms, aggressive and rule-breaking behavior, and substance abuse at Time 2. In addition, rule-breaking behavior predicted an increase in adolescents' substance abuse at Time 2. Concerning gender, psychological victimization predicted an increase in anxiety/depression, aggressive behavior, rule-breaking behavior, and substance abuse in boys; whereas in girls, psychological victimization only predicted an increase in anxiety/depression.

The Processing of Attended and Predicted Sounds in Time.

PubMed

Paris, Tim; Kim, Jeesun; Davis, Chris

2016-01-01

Neural responses to an attended event are typically enhanced relative to those from an unattended one (attention enhancement). Conversely, neural responses to a predicted event are typically reduced relative to those from an unpredicted one (prediction suppression). What remains to be established is what happens with attended and predicted events. To examine the interaction between attention and prediction, we combined two robust paradigms developed for studying attention and prediction effects on ERPs into an orthogonal design. Participants were presented with sounds in attended or unattended intervals with onsets that were either predicted by a moving visual cue or unpredicted (no cue was provided). We demonstrated an N1 enhancement effect for attended sounds and an N1 suppression effect for predicted sounds; furthermore, an interaction between these effects was found that emerged early in the N1 (50-95 msec), indicating that attention enhancement only occurred when the sound was unpredicted. This pattern of results can be explained by the precision of the predictive cue that reduces the need for attention selection in the attended and predicted condition.

Predicting the digestible energy of corn determined with growing swine from nutrient composition and cross-species measurements.

PubMed

Smith, B; Hassen, A; Hinds, M; Rice, D; Jones, D; Sauber, T; Iiams, C; Sevenich, D; Allen, R; Owens, F; McNaughton, J; Parsons, C

2015-03-01

The DE values of corn grain for pigs will differ among corn sources. More accurate prediction of DE may improve diet formulation and reduce diet cost. Corn grain sources ( = 83) were assayed with growing swine (20 kg) in DE experiments with total collection of feces, with 3-wk-old broiler chick in nitrogen-corrected apparent ME (AME) trials and with cecectomized adult roosters in nitrogen-corrected true ME (TME) studies. Additional AME data for the corn grain source set was generated based on an existing near-infrared transmittance prediction model (near-infrared transmittance-predicted AME [NIT-AME]). Corn source nutrient composition was determined by wet chemistry methods. These data were then used to 1) test the accuracy of predicting swine DE of individual corn sources based on available literature equations and nutrient composition and 2) develop models for predicting DE of sources from nutrient composition and the cross-species information gathered above (AME, NIT-AME, and TME). The overall measured DE, AME, NIT-AME, and TME values were 4,105 ± 11, 4,006 ± 10, 4,004 ± 10, and 4,086 ± 12 kcal/kg DM, respectively. Prediction models were developed using 80% of the corn grain sources; the remaining 20% was reserved for validation of the developed prediction equation. Literature equations based on nutrient composition proved imprecise for predicting corn DE; the root mean square error of prediction ranged from 105 to 331 kcal/kg, an equivalent of 2.6 to 8.8% error. Yet among the corn composition traits, 4-variable models developed in the current study provided adequate prediction of DE (model ranging from 0.76 to 0.79 and root mean square error [RMSE] of 50 kcal/kg). When prediction equations were tested using the validation set, these models had a 1 to 1.2% error of prediction. Simple linear equations from AME, NIT-AME, or TME provided an accurate prediction of DE for individual sources ( ranged from 0.65 to 0.73 and RMSE ranged from 50 to 61 kcal/kg). Percentage error of prediction based on the validation data set was greater (1.4%) for the TME model than for the NIT-AME or AME models (1 and 1.2%, respectively), indicating that swine DE values could be accurately predicted by using AME or NIT-AME. In conclusion, regression equations developed from broiler measurements or from analyzed nutrient composition proved adequate to reliably predict the DE of commercially available corn hybrids for growing pigs.

Intergenerational transmission of adaptive functioning: a test of the interactionist model of SES and human development.

PubMed

Schofield, Thomas J; Martin, Monica J; Conger, Katherine J; Neppl, Tricia M; Donnellan, M Brent; Conger, Rand D

2011-01-01

The interactionist model (IM) of human development (R. D. Conger & M. B. Donellan, 2007) proposes that the association between socioeconomic status (SES) and human development involves a dynamic interplay that includes both social causation (SES influences human development) and social selection (individual characteristics affect SES). Using a multigenerational data set involving 271 families, the current study finds empirical support for the IM. Adolescent personality characteristics indicative of social competence, goal-setting, hard work, and emotional stability predicted later SES, parenting, and family characteristics that were related to the positive development of a third-generation child. Processes of both social selection and social causation appear to account for the association between SES and dimensions of human development indicative of healthy functioning across multiple generations. © 2011 The Authors. Child Development © 2011 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

Developing a Measure of General Academic Ability: An Application of Maximal Reliability and Optimal Linear Combination to High School Students' Scores

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dimitrov, Dimiter M.; Raykov, Tenko; AL-Qataee, Abdullah Ali

2015-01-01

This article is concerned with developing a measure of general academic ability (GAA) for high school graduates who apply to colleges, as well as with the identification of optimal weights of the GAA indicators in a linear combination that yields a composite score with maximal reliability and maximal predictive validity, employing the framework of…

Global predictability of temperature extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coughlan de Perez, Erin; van Aalst, Maarten; Bischiniotis, Konstantinos; Mason, Simon; Nissan, Hannah; Pappenberger, Florian; Stephens, Elisabeth; Zsoter, Ervin; van den Hurk, Bart

2018-05-01

Extreme temperatures are one of the leading causes of death and disease in both developed and developing countries, and heat extremes are projected to rise in many regions. To reduce risk, heatwave plans and cold weather plans have been effectively implemented around the world. However, much of the world’s population is not yet protected by such systems, including many data-scarce but also highly vulnerable regions. In this study, we assess at a global level where such systems have the potential to be effective at reducing risk from temperature extremes, characterizing (1) long-term average occurrence of heatwaves and coldwaves, (2) seasonality of these extremes, and (3) short-term predictability of these extreme events three to ten days in advance. Using both the NOAA and ECMWF weather forecast models, we develop global maps indicating a first approximation of the locations that are likely to benefit from the development of seasonal preparedness plans and/or short-term early warning systems for extreme temperature. The extratropics generally show both short-term skill as well as strong seasonality; in the tropics, most locations do also demonstrate one or both. In fact, almost 5 billion people live in regions that have seasonality and predictability of heatwaves and/or coldwaves. Climate adaptation investments in these regions can take advantage of seasonality and predictability to reduce risks to vulnerable populations.

Interpersonal maladjustment as predictor of mothers' response to a relational parenting intervention.

PubMed

Suchman, Nancy E; McMahon, Thomas J; Luthar, Suniya S

2004-09-01

In previous work, Luthar and Suchman (2000, Development & Psychopathology, 12, 235) reported results of a randomized clinical trial testing the efficacy of the Relational Psychotherapy Mothers' Group (RPMG) for methadone-maintained mothers. In this extension, we examined maternal interpersonal maladjustment as a predictor of differential response to RPMG versus standard drug counseling (DC). We predicted that RPMG mothers with high levels of interpersonal maladjustment would improve on parent-child relationship indices, whereas DC mothers with high levels of interpersonal maladjustment would show no improvement. Fifty-two mothers enrolled in the study completed baseline, post-treatment and 6-month followup assessments and a subset of 24 "target" children between the ages of 7 and 16 completed measures on mothers' parenting. As predicted, results of hierarchical regression analyses indicated moderate interpersonal maladjustment x treatment interaction effects for all parenting outcomes at post-treatment and for a subset of outcomes at followup. Plotted interactions confirmed predictions that, as maternal interpersonal maladjustment increased, parenting problems improved for RPMG mothers and remained the same or worsened for DC mothers. Results indicate the potential value of interpersonally oriented interventions for substance-abusing mothers and their children.

Personality Predictors of Successful Development: Toddler Temperament and Adolescent Personality Traits Predict Well-Being and Career Stability in Middle Adulthood

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

The aim of the study was to predict both adaptive psychological functioning (well-being) and adaptive social functioning (career stability) in middle adulthood based on behaviors observed in toddlerhood and personality traits measured in adolescence. 83 people participated in an ongoing longitudinal study started in 1961 (58% women). Based on children’s behavior in toddlerhood, three temperamental dimensions were identified – positive affectivity, negative affectivity and disinhibition. In adolescence, extraversion and neuroticism were measured at the age of 16 years. Various aspects of well-being were used as indicators of adaptive psychological functioning in adulthood: life satisfaction, self-esteem and self-efficacy. Career stability was used as an indicator of adaptive social functioning. Job careers of respondents were characterized as stable, unstable or changeable. Extraversion measured at the age of 16 proved to be the best predictor of well-being indicators; in case of self-efficacy it was also childhood disinhibition. Extraversion in adolescence, childhood disinhibition and negative affectivity predicted career stability. Findings are discussed in the context of a theoretical framework of higher order factors of the Big Five personality constructs, stability and plasticity. PMID:25919394

Anemia and Red Blood Cell Indices Predict HIV-Associated Neurocognitive Impairment in the Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy Era

PubMed Central

Kallianpur, Asha R.; Wang, Quan; Jia, Peilin; Hulgan, Todd; Zhao, Zhongming; Letendre, Scott L.; Ellis, Ronald J.; Heaton, Robert K.; Franklin, Donald R.; Barnholtz-Sloan, Jill; Collier, Ann C.; Marra, Christina M.; Clifford, David B.; Gelman, Benjamin B.; McArthur, Justin C.; Morgello, Susan; Simpson, David M.; McCutchan, J. A.; Grant, Igor

2016-01-01

Background. Anemia has been linked to adverse human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) outcomes, including dementia, in the era before highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). Milder forms of HIV-associated neurocognitive disorder (HAND) remain common in HIV-infected persons, despite HAART, but whether anemia predicts HAND in the HAART era is unknown. Methods. We evaluated time-dependent associations of anemia and cross-sectional associations of red blood cell indices with neurocognitive impairment in a multicenter, HAART-era HIV cohort study (N = 1261), adjusting for potential confounders, including age, nadir CD4+ T-cell count, zidovudine use, and comorbid conditions. Subjects underwent comprehensive neuropsychiatric and neuromedical assessments. Results. HAND, defined according to standardized criteria, occurred in 595 subjects (47%) at entry. Mean corpuscular volume and mean corpuscular hemoglobin were positively associated with the global deficit score, a continuous measure of neurocognitive impairment (both P < .01), as well as with all HAND, milder forms of HAND, and HIV-associated dementia in multivariable analyses (all P < .05). Anemia independently predicted development of HAND during a median follow-up of 72 months (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.55; P < .01). Conclusions. Anemia and red blood cell indices predict HAND in the HAART era and may contribute to risk assessment. Future studies should address whether treating anemia may help to prevent HAND or improve cognitive function in HIV-infected persons. PMID:26690344

Development of drug-loaded polymer microcapsules for treatment of epilepsy.

PubMed

Chen, Yu; Gu, Qi; Yue, Zhilian; Crook, Jeremy M; Moulton, Simon E; Cook, Mark J; Wallace, Gordon G

2017-09-26

Despite significant progress in developing new drugs for seizure control, epilepsy still affects 1% of the global population and is drug-resistant in more than 30% of cases. To improve the therapeutic efficacy of epilepsy medication, a promising approach is to deliver anti-epilepsy drugs directly to affected brain areas using local drug delivery systems. The drug delivery systems must meet a number of criteria, including high drug loading efficiency, biodegradability, neuro-cytocompatibility and predictable drug release profiles. Here we report the development of fibre- and sphere-based microcapsules that exhibit controllable uniform morphologies and drug release profiles as predicted by mathematical modelling. Importantly, both forms of fabricated microcapsules are compatible with human brain derived neural stem cells and differentiated neurons and neuroglia, indicating clinical compliance for neural implantation and therapeutic drug delivery.

Visual Versus Fully Automated Analyses of 18F-FDG and Amyloid PET for Prediction of Dementia Due to Alzheimer Disease in Mild Cognitive Impairment.

PubMed

Grimmer, Timo; Wutz, Carolin; Alexopoulos, Panagiotis; Drzezga, Alexander; Förster, Stefan; Förstl, Hans; Goldhardt, Oliver; Ortner, Marion; Sorg, Christian; Kurz, Alexander

2016-02-01

Biomarkers of Alzheimer disease (AD) can be imaged in vivo and can be used for diagnostic and prognostic purposes in people with cognitive decline and dementia. Indicators of amyloid deposition such as (11)C-Pittsburgh compound B ((11)C-PiB) PET are primarily used to identify or rule out brain diseases that are associated with amyloid pathology but have also been deployed to forecast the clinical course. Indicators of neuronal metabolism including (18)F-FDG PET demonstrate the localization and severity of neuronal dysfunction and are valuable for differential diagnosis and for predicting the progression from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to dementia. It is a matter of debate whether to analyze these images visually or using automated techniques. Therefore, we compared the usefulness of both imaging methods and both analyzing strategies to predict dementia due to AD. In MCI participants, a baseline examination, including clinical and imaging assessments, and a clinical follow-up examination after a planned interval of 24 mo were performed. Of 28 MCI patients, 9 developed dementia due to AD, 2 developed frontotemporal dementia, and 1 developed moderate dementia of unknown etiology. The positive and negative predictive values and the accuracy of visual and fully automated analyses of (11)C-PiB for the prediction of progression to dementia due to AD were 0.50, 1.00, and 0.68, respectively, for the visual and 0.53, 1.00, and 0.71, respectively, for the automated analyses. Positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy of fully automated analyses of (18)F-FDG PET were 0.37, 0.78, and 0.50, respectively. Results of visual analyses were highly variable between raters but were superior to automated analyses. Both (18)F-FDG and (11)C-PiB imaging appear to be of limited use for predicting the progression from MCI to dementia due to AD in short-term follow-up, irrespective of the strategy of analysis. On the other hand, amyloid PET is extremely useful to rule out underlying AD. The findings of the present study favor a fully automated method of analysis for (11)C-PiB assessments and a visual analysis by experts for (18)F-FDG assessments. © 2016 by the Society of Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging, Inc.

Configuration and validation of a novel prostate disease nomogram predicting prostate biopsy outcome: A prospective study correlating clinical indicators among Filipino adult males with elevated PSA level.

PubMed

Chua, Michael E; Tanseco, Patrick P; Mendoza, Jonathan S; Castillo, Josefino C; Morales, Marcelino L; Luna, Saturnino L

2015-04-01

To configure and validate a novel prostate disease nomogram providing prostate biopsy outcome probabilities from a prospective study correlating clinical indicators and diagnostic parameters among Filipino adult male with elevated serum total prostate specific antigen (PSA) level. All men with an elevated serum total PSA underwent initial prostate biopsy at our institution from January 2011 to August 2014 were included. Clinical indicators, diagnostic parameters, which include PSA level and PSA-derivatives, were collected as predictive factors for biopsy outcome. Multiple logistic-regression analysis involving a backward elimination selection procedure was used to select independent predictors. A nomogram was developed to calculate the probability of the biopsy outcomes. External validation of the nomogram was performed using separate data set from another center for determination of sensitivity and specificity. A receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to assess the accuracy in predicting differential biopsy outcome. Total of 552 patients was included. One hundred and ninety-one (34.6%) patients had benign prostatic hyperplasia, and 165 (29.9%) had chronic prostatitis. The remaining 196 (35.5%) patients had prostate adenocarcinoma. The significant independent variables used to predict biopsy outcome were age, family history of prostate cancer, prior antibiotic intake, PSA level, PSA-density, PSA-velocity, echogenic findings on ultrasound, and DRE status. The areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for prostate cancer using PSA alone and the nomogram were 0.688 and 0.804, respectively. The nomogram configured based on routinely available clinical parameters, provides high predictive accuracy with good performance characteristics in predicting the prostate biopsy outcome such as presence of prostate cancer, high Gleason prostate cancer, benign prostatic hyperplasia, and chronic prostatitis.

Predicting the 10-Year Risks of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease in Chinese Population: The China-PAR Project (Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China).

PubMed

Yang, Xueli; Li, Jianxin; Hu, Dongsheng; Chen, Jichun; Li, Ying; Huang, Jianfeng; Liu, Xiaoqing; Liu, Fangchao; Cao, Jie; Shen, Chong; Yu, Ling; Lu, Fanghong; Wu, Xianping; Zhao, Liancheng; Wu, Xigui; Gu, Dongfeng

2016-11-08

The accurate assessment of individual risk can be of great value to guiding and facilitating the prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). However, prediction models in common use were formulated primarily in white populations. The China-PAR project (Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China) is aimed at developing and validating 10-year risk prediction equations for ASCVD from 4 contemporary Chinese cohorts. Two prospective studies followed up together with a unified protocol were used as the derivation cohort to develop 10-year ASCVD risk equations in 21 320 Chinese participants. The external validation was evaluated in 2 independent Chinese cohorts with 14 123 and 70 838 participants. Furthermore, model performance was compared with the Pooled Cohort Equations reported in the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guideline. Over 12 years of follow-up in the derivation cohort with 21 320 Chinese participants, 1048 subjects developed a first ASCVD event. Sex-specific equations had C statistics of 0.794 (95% confidence interval, 0.775-0.814) for men and 0.811 (95% confidence interval, 0.787-0.835) for women. The predicted rates were similar to the observed rates, as indicated by a calibration χ 2 of 13.1 for men (P=0.16) and 12.8 for women (P=0.17). Good internal and external validations of our equations were achieved in subsequent analyses. Compared with the Chinese equations, the Pooled Cohort Equations had lower C statistics and much higher calibration χ 2 values in men. Our project developed effective tools with good performance for 10-year ASCVD risk prediction among a Chinese population that will help to improve the primary prevention and management of cardiovascular disease. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Predicting Bacteria Removal by Enhanced Stormwater Control Measures (SCMs) at the Watershed Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolfand, J.; Bell, C. D.; Boehm, A. B.; Hogue, T. S.; Luthy, R. G.

2017-12-01

Urban stormwater is a major cause of water quality impairment, resulting in surface waters that fail to meet water quality standards and support their designated uses. Fecal indicator bacteria are present in high concentrations in stormwater and are strictly regulated in receiving waters; yet, their fate and transport in urban stormwater is poorly understood. Stormwater control measures (SCMs) are often used to treat, infiltrate, and release urban runoff, but field measurements show that the removal of bacteria by these structural solutions is limited (median log removal = 0.24, n = 370). Researchers have therefore looked to improve bacterial removal by enhancing SCMs through alterations in flow regimes or adding geomedia such as biochar. The present research seeks to develop a model to predict removal of fecal indicator bacteria by enhanced SCMs at the watershed scale in a semi-arid climate. Using the highly developed Ballona Creek watershed (290 km2) located in Los Angeles County as a case study, a hydrologic model is coupled with a stochastic water quality model to predict E. coli concentration near the outfall of the Ballona Creek, Santa Monica Bay. A hydrologic model was developed using EPA SWMM, calibrated for flow from water year 1998-2006 (NSE = 0.94; R2 = 0.94), and validated from water year 2007-2015 (NSE = 0.90; R2 = 0.93). This bacterial loading model was then linked to EPA SUSTAIN and a SCM bacterial removal script to simulate log removal of bacteria by various SCMs and predict bacterial concentrations in Ballona Creek. Preliminary results suggest small enhancements to SCMs that improve bacterial removal (<0.5 log removal) may offer large benefits to surface water quality and enable communities such as Los Angeles to meet their regulatory requirements.

Compassion satisfaction, burnout, and secondary traumatic stress in UK therapists who work with adult trauma clients.

PubMed

Sodeke-Gregson, Ekundayo A; Holttum, Sue; Billings, Jo

2013-01-01

Therapists who work with trauma clients are impacted both positively and negatively. However, most studies have tended to focus on the negative impact of the work, the quantitative evidence has been inconsistent, and the research has primarily been conducted outside the United Kingdom. This study aimed to assess the prevalence of, and identify predictor variables for, compassion satisfaction, burnout, and secondary traumatic stress in a group of UK therapists (N=253) working with adult trauma clients. An online questionnaire was developed which used The Professional Quality of Life Scale (Version 5) to assess compassion satisfaction, burnout, and secondary traumatic stress and collect demographics and other pertinent information. Whilst the majority of therapists scored within the average range for compassion satisfaction and burnout, 70% of scores indicated that therapists were at high risk of secondary traumatic stress. Maturity, time spent engaging in research and development activities, a higher perceived supportiveness of management, and supervision predicted higher potential for compassion satisfaction. Youth and a lower perceived supportiveness of management predicted higher risk of burnout. A higher risk of secondary traumatic stress was predicted in therapists engaging in more individual supervision and self-care activities, as well as those who had a personal trauma history. UK therapists working with trauma clients are at high risk of being negatively impacted by their work, obtaining scores which suggest a risk of developing secondary traumatic stress. Of particular note was that exposure to trauma stories did not significantly predict secondary traumatic stress scores as suggested by theory. However, the negative impact of working with trauma clients was balanced by the potential for a positive outcome from trauma work as a majority indicated an average potential for compassion satisfaction.

Influences on emergency department length of stay for older people.

PubMed

Street, Maryann; Mohebbi, Mohammadreza; Berry, Debra; Cross, Anthony; Considine, Julie

2018-02-14

The aim of this study was to examine the influences on emergency department (ED) length of stay (LOS) for older people and develop a predictive model for an ED LOS more than 4 h. This retrospective cohort study used organizational data linkage at the patient level from a major Australian health service. The study population was aged 65 years or older, attending an ED during the 2013/2014 financial year. We developed and internally validated a clinical prediction rule. Discriminatory performance of the model was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. An integer-based risk score was developed using multivariate logistic regression. The risk score was evaluated using ROC analysis. There were 33 926 ED attendances: 57.5% (n=19 517) had an ED LOS more than 4 h. The area under ROC for age, usual accommodation, triage category, arrival by ambulance, arrival overnight, imaging, laboratory investigations, overcrowding, time to be seen by doctor, ED visits with admission and access block relating to ED LOS more than 4 h was 0.796, indicating good performance. In the validation set, area under ROC was 0.80, P-value was 0.36 and prediction mean square error was 0.18, indicating good calibration. The risk score value attributed to each risk factor ranged from 2 to 68 points. The clinical prediction rule stratified patients into five levels of risk on the basis of the total risk score. Objective identification of older people at intermediate and high risk of an ED LOS more than 4 h early in ED care enables targeted approaches to streamline the patient journey, decrease ED LOS and optimize emergency care for older people.

Compassion satisfaction, burnout, and secondary traumatic stress in UK therapists who work with adult trauma clients

PubMed Central

Sodeke-Gregson, Ekundayo A.; Holttum, Sue; Billings, Jo

2013-01-01

Background Therapists who work with trauma clients are impacted both positively and negatively. However, most studies have tended to focus on the negative impact of the work, the quantitative evidence has been inconsistent, and the research has primarily been conducted outside the United Kingdom. Objectives This study aimed to assess the prevalence of, and identify predictor variables for, compassion satisfaction, burnout, and secondary traumatic stress in a group of UK therapists (N=253) working with adult trauma clients. Method An online questionnaire was developed which used The Professional Quality of Life Scale (Version 5) to assess compassion satisfaction, burnout, and secondary traumatic stress and collect demographics and other pertinent information. Results Whilst the majority of therapists scored within the average range for compassion satisfaction and burnout, 70% of scores indicated that therapists were at high risk of secondary traumatic stress. Maturity, time spent engaging in research and development activities, a higher perceived supportiveness of management, and supervision predicted higher potential for compassion satisfaction. Youth and a lower perceived supportiveness of management predicted higher risk of burnout. A higher risk of secondary traumatic stress was predicted in therapists engaging in more individual supervision and self-care activities, as well as those who had a personal trauma history. Conclusions UK therapists working with trauma clients are at high risk of being negatively impacted by their work, obtaining scores which suggest a risk of developing secondary traumatic stress. Of particular note was that exposure to trauma stories did not significantly predict secondary traumatic stress scores as suggested by theory. However, the negative impact of working with trauma clients was balanced by the potential for a positive outcome from trauma work as a majority indicated an average potential for compassion satisfaction. PMID:24386550

Prognostic value of three-dimensional ultrasound for fetal hydronephrosis

PubMed Central

WANG, JUNMEI; YING, WEIWEN; TANG, DAXING; YANG, LIMING; LIU, DONGSHENG; LIU, YUANHUI; PAN, JIAOE; XIE, XING

2015-01-01

The present study evaluated the prognostic value of three-dimensional ultrasound for fetal hydronephrosis. Pregnant females with fetal hydronephrosis were enrolled and a novel three-dimensional ultrasound indicator, renal parenchymal volume/kidney volume, was introduced to predict the postnatal prognosis of fetal hydronephrosis in comparison with commonly used ultrasound indicators. All ultrasound indicators of fetal hydronephrosis could predict whether postnatal surgery was required for fetal hydronephrosis; however, the predictive performance of renal parenchymal volume/kidney volume measurements as an individual indicator was the highest. In conclusion, ultrasound is important in predicting whether postnatal surgery is required for fetal hydronephrosis, and the three-dimensional ultrasound indicator renal parenchymal volume/kidney volume has a high predictive performance. Furthermore, the majority of cases of fetal hydronephrosis spontaneously regress subsequent to birth, and the regression time is closely associated with ultrasound indicators. PMID:25667626

Prediction of Body Fluids where Proteins are Secreted into Based on Protein Interaction Network

PubMed Central

Hu, Le-Le; Huang, Tao; Cai, Yu-Dong; Chou, Kuo-Chen

2011-01-01

Determining the body fluids where secreted proteins can be secreted into is important for protein function annotation and disease biomarker discovery. In this study, we developed a network-based method to predict which kind of body fluids human proteins can be secreted into. For a newly constructed benchmark dataset that consists of 529 human-secreted proteins, the prediction accuracy for the most possible body fluid location predicted by our method via the jackknife test was 79.02%, significantly higher than the success rate by a random guess (29.36%). The likelihood that the predicted body fluids of the first four orders contain all the true body fluids where the proteins can be secreted into is 62.94%. Our method was further demonstrated with two independent datasets: one contains 57 proteins that can be secreted into blood; while the other contains 61 proteins that can be secreted into plasma/serum and were possible biomarkers associated with various cancers. For the 57 proteins in first dataset, 55 were correctly predicted as blood-secrete proteins. For the 61 proteins in the second dataset, 58 were predicted to be most possible in plasma/serum. These encouraging results indicate that the network-based prediction method is quite promising. It is anticipated that the method will benefit the relevant areas for both basic research and drug development. PMID:21829572

Limb-Enhancer Genie: An accessible resource of accurate enhancer predictions in the developing limb

DOE PAGES

Monti, Remo; Barozzi, Iros; Osterwalder, Marco; ...

2017-08-21

Epigenomic mapping of enhancer-associated chromatin modifications facilitates the genome-wide discovery of tissue-specific enhancers in vivo. However, reliance on single chromatin marks leads to high rates of false-positive predictions. More sophisticated, integrative methods have been described, but commonly suffer from limited accessibility to the resulting predictions and reduced biological interpretability. Here we present the Limb-Enhancer Genie (LEG), a collection of highly accurate, genome-wide predictions of enhancers in the developing limb, available through a user-friendly online interface. We predict limb enhancers using a combination of > 50 published limb-specific datasets and clusters of evolutionarily conserved transcription factor binding sites, taking advantage ofmore » the patterns observed at previously in vivo validated elements. By combining different statistical models, our approach outperforms current state-of-the-art methods and provides interpretable measures of feature importance. Our results indicate that including a previously unappreciated score that quantifies tissue-specific nuclease accessibility significantly improves prediction performance. We demonstrate the utility of our approach through in vivo validation of newly predicted elements. Moreover, we describe general features that can guide the type of datasets to include when predicting tissue-specific enhancers genome-wide, while providing an accessible resource to the general biological community and facilitating the functional interpretation of genetic studies of limb malformations.« less

The contribution of children's time-specific and longitudinal expressive language skills on developmental trajectories of executive function.

PubMed

Kuhn, Laura J; Willoughby, Michael T; Vernon-Feagans, Lynne; Blair, Clancy B

2016-08-01

To investigate whether children's early language skills support the development of executive functions (EFs), the current study used an epidemiological sample (N=1121) to determine whether two key language indicators, vocabulary and language complexity, were predictive of EF abilities over the preschool years. We examined vocabulary and language complexity both as time-varying covariates that predicted time-specific indicators of EF at 36 and 60 months of age and as time-invariant covariates that predicted children's EF at 60 months and change in EF from 36 to 60 months. We found that the rate of change in children's vocabulary between 15 and 36 months was associated with both the trajectory of EF from 36 to 60 months and the resulting abilities at 60 months. In contrast, children's language complexity had a time-specific association with EF only at 60 months. These findings suggest that children's early gains in vocabulary may be particularly relevant for emerging EF abilities. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Numerical formulation for the prediction of solid/liquid change of a binary alloy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schneider, G. E.; Tiwari, S. N.

1990-01-01

A computational model is presented for the prediction of solid/liquid phase change energy transport including the influence of free convection fluid flow in the liquid phase region. The computational model considers the velocity components of all non-liquid phase change material control volumes to be zero but fully solves the coupled mass-momentum problem within the liquid region. The thermal energy model includes the entire domain and uses an enthalpy like model and a recently developed method for handling the phase change interface nonlinearity. Convergence studies are performed and comparisons made with experimental data for two different problem specifications. The convergence studies indicate that grid independence was achieved and the comparison with experimental data indicates excellent quantitative prediction of the melt fraction evolution. Qualitative data is also provided in the form of velocity vector diagrams and isotherm plots for selected times in the evolution of both problems. The computational costs incurred are quite low by comparison with previous efforts on solving these problems.

Development and transfer of vocabulary knowledge in Spanish-speaking language minority preschool children.

PubMed

Goodrich, J Marc; Lonigan, Christopher J; Kleuver, Cherie G; Farver, Joann M

2016-09-01

In this study we evaluated the predictive validity of conceptual scoring. Two independent samples of Spanish-speaking language minority preschoolers (Sample 1: N = 96, mean age = 54·51 months, 54·3% male; Sample 2: N = 116, mean age = 60·70 months, 56·0% male) completed measures of receptive, expressive, and definitional vocabulary in their first (L1) and second (L2) languages at two time points approximately 9-12 months apart. We examined whether unique L1 and L2 vocabulary at time 1 predicted later L2 and L1 vocabulary, respectively. Results indicated that unique L1 vocabulary did not predict later L2 vocabulary after controlling for initial L2 vocabulary. An identical pattern of results emerged for L1 vocabulary outcomes. We also examined whether children acquired translational equivalents for words known in one language but not the other. Results indicated that children acquired translational equivalents, providing partial support for the transfer of vocabulary knowledge across languages.

Early Reading and Concrete Operations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Polk, Cindy L. Howes; Goldstein, David

1980-01-01

Indicated that early readers are more likely to be advanced in cognitive development than are nonearly-reading peers. After one year of formal reading instruction, early readers maintained their advantage in reading achievement. Measures of concrete operations were found to predict reading achievement for early and nonearly readers. (Author/DB)

A predictive index of biotic integrity model for aquatic-vertebrate assemblages of Western U.S. streams

EPA Science Inventory

Because of natural environmental and faunal differences and scientific perspectives, numerous indices of biological integrity (IBIs) have been developed at local state, and regional scales in the USA. These multiple IBIs, plus different criteria for judging impairment, hinder ri...

A gender study investigating physics self-efficacy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sawtelle, Vashti

The underrepresentation of women in physics has been well documented and a source of concern for both policy makers and educators. My dissertation focuses on understanding the role self-efficacy plays in retaining students, particularly women, in introductory physics. I use an explanatory mixed methods approach to first investigate quantitatively the influence of self-efficacy in predicting success and then to qualitatively explore the development of self-efficacy. In the initial quantitative studies, I explore the utility of self-efficacy in predicting the success of introductory physics students, both women and men. Results indicate that self-efficacy is a significant predictor of success for all students. I then disaggregate the data to examine how self-efficacy develops differently for women and men in the introductory physics course. Results show women rely on different sources of self-efficacy than do men, and that a particular instructional environment, Modeling Instruction, has a positive impact on these sources of self-efficacy. In the qualitative phase of the project, this dissertation focuses on the development of self-efficacy. Using the qualitative tool of microanalysis, I introduce a methodology for understanding how self-efficacy develops moment-by-moment using the lens of self-efficacy opportunities. I then use the characterizations of self-efficacy opportunities to focus on a particular course environment and to identify and describe a mechanism by which Modeling Instruction impacts student self-efficacy. Results indicate that the emphasizing the development and deployment of models affords opportunities to impact self-efficacy. The findings of this dissertation indicate that introducing key elements into the classroom, such as cooperative group work, model development and deployment, and interaction with the instructor, create a mechanism by which instructors can impact the self-efficacy of their students. Results from this study indicate that creating a model to impact the retention rates of women in physics should include attending to self-efficacy and designing activities in the classroom that create self-efficacy opportunities.

A nomogram for predicting complications in patients with solid tumours and seemingly stable febrile neutropenia.

PubMed

Fonseca, Paula Jiménez; Carmona-Bayonas, Alberto; García, Ignacio Matos; Marcos, Rosana; Castañón, Eduardo; Antonio, Maite; Font, Carme; Biosca, Mercè; Blasco, Ana; Lozano, Rebeca; Ramchandani, Avinash; Beato, Carmen; de Castro, Eva Martínez; Espinosa, Javier; Martínez-García, Jerónimo; Ghanem, Ismael; Cubero, Jorge Hernando; Manrique, Isabel Aragón; Navalón, Francisco García; Sevillano, Elena; Manzano, Aránzazu; Virizuela, Juan; Garrido, Marcelo; Mondéjar, Rebeca; Arcusa, María Ángeles; Bonilla, Yaiza; Pérez, Quionia; Gallardo, Elena; Del Carmen Soriano, Maria; Cardona, Mercè; Lasheras, Fernando Sánchez; Cruz, Juan Jesús; Ayala, Francisco

2016-05-24

We sought to develop and externally validate a nomogram and web-based calculator to individually predict the development of serious complications in seemingly stable adult patients with solid tumours and episodes of febrile neutropenia (FN). The data from the FINITE study (n=1133) and University of Salamanca Hospital (USH) FN registry (n=296) were used to develop and validate this tool. The main eligibility criterion was the presence of apparent clinical stability, defined as events without acute organ dysfunction, abnormal vital signs, or major infections. Discriminatory ability was measured as the concordance index and stratification into risk groups. The rate of infection-related complications in the FINITE and USH series was 13.4% and 18.6%, respectively. The nomogram used the following covariates: Eastern Cooperative Group (ECOG) Performance Status ⩾2, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic cardiovascular disease, mucositis of grade ⩾2 (National Cancer Institute Common Toxicity Criteria), monocytes <200/mm(3), and stress-induced hyperglycaemia. The nomogram predictions appeared to be well calibrated in both data sets (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, P>0.1). The concordance index was 0.855 and 0.831 in each series. Risk group stratification revealed a significant distinction in the proportion of complications. With a ⩾116-point cutoff, the nomogram yielded the following prognostic indices in the USH registry validation series: 66% sensitivity, 83% specificity, 3.88 positive likelihood ratio, 48% positive predictive value, and 91% negative predictive value. We have developed and externally validated a nomogram and web calculator to predict serious complications that can potentially impact decision-making in patients with seemingly stable FN.

Target specific proteochemometric model development for BACE1 - protein flexibility and structural water are critical in virtual screening.

PubMed

Manoharan, Prabu; Chennoju, Kiranmai; Ghoshal, Nanda

2015-07-01

BACE1 is an attractive target in Alzheimer's disease (AD) treatment. A rational drug design effort for the inhibition of BACE1 is actively pursued by researchers in both academic and pharmaceutical industries. This continued effort led to the steady accumulation of BACE1 crystal structures, co-complexed with different classes of inhibitors. This wealth of information is used in this study to develop target specific proteochemometric models and these models are exploited for predicting the prospective BACE1 inhibitors. The models developed in this study have performed excellently in predicting the computationally generated poses, separately obtained from single and ensemble docking approaches. The simple protein-ligand contact (SPLC) model outperforms other sophisticated high end models, in virtual screening performance, developed during this study. In an attempt to account for BACE1 protein active site flexibility information in predictive models, we included the change in the area of solvent accessible surface and the change in the volume of solvent accessible surface in our models. The ensemble and single receptor docking results obtained from this study indicate that the structural water mediated interactions improve the virtual screening results. Also, these waters are essential for recapitulating bioactive conformation during docking study. The proteochemometric models developed in this study can be used for the prediction of BACE1 inhibitors, during the early stage of AD drug discovery.

A Network-Based Classification Model for Deriving Novel Drug-Disease Associations and Assessing Their Molecular Actions

PubMed Central

Oh, Min; Ahn, Jaegyoon; Yoon, Youngmi

2014-01-01

The growing number and variety of genetic network datasets increases the feasibility of understanding how drugs and diseases are associated at the molecular level. Properly selected features of the network representations of existing drug-disease associations can be used to infer novel indications of existing drugs. To find new drug-disease associations, we generated an integrative genetic network using combinations of interactions, including protein-protein interactions and gene regulatory network datasets. Within this network, network adjacencies of drug-drug and disease-disease were quantified using a scored path between target sets of them. Furthermore, the common topological module of drugs or diseases was extracted, and thereby the distance between topological drug-module and disease (or disease-module and drug) was quantified. These quantified scores were used as features for the prediction of novel drug-disease associations. Our classifiers using Random Forest, Multilayer Perceptron and C4.5 showed a high specificity and sensitivity (AUC score of 0.855, 0.828 and 0.797 respectively) in predicting novel drug indications, and displayed a better performance than other methods with limited drug and disease properties. Our predictions and current clinical trials overlap significantly across the different phases of drug development. We also identified and visualized the topological modules of predicted drug indications for certain types of cancers, and for Alzheimer’s disease. Within the network, those modules show potential pathways that illustrate the mechanisms of new drug indications, including propranolol as a potential anticancer agent and telmisartan as treatment for Alzheimer’s disease. PMID:25356910

Large-scale exploration and analysis of drug combinations.

PubMed

Li, Peng; Huang, Chao; Fu, Yingxue; Wang, Jinan; Wu, Ziyin; Ru, Jinlong; Zheng, Chunli; Guo, Zihu; Chen, Xuetong; Zhou, Wei; Zhang, Wenjuan; Li, Yan; Chen, Jianxin; Lu, Aiping; Wang, Yonghua

2015-06-15

Drug combinations are a promising strategy for combating complex diseases by improving the efficacy and reducing corresponding side effects. Currently, a widely studied problem in pharmacology is to predict effective drug combinations, either through empirically screening in clinic or pure experimental trials. However, the large-scale prediction of drug combination by a systems method is rarely considered. We report a systems pharmacology framework to predict drug combinations (PreDCs) on a computational model, termed probability ensemble approach (PEA), for analysis of both the efficacy and adverse effects of drug combinations. First, a Bayesian network integrating with a similarity algorithm is developed to model the combinations from drug molecular and pharmacological phenotypes, and the predictions are then assessed with both clinical efficacy and adverse effects. It is illustrated that PEA can predict the combination efficacy of drugs spanning different therapeutic classes with high specificity and sensitivity (AUC = 0.90), which was further validated by independent data or new experimental assays. PEA also evaluates the adverse effects (AUC = 0.95) quantitatively and detects the therapeutic indications for drug combinations. Finally, the PreDC database includes 1571 known and 3269 predicted optimal combinations as well as their potential side effects and therapeutic indications. The PreDC database is available at http://sm.nwsuaf.edu.cn/lsp/predc.php. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Active-Optical Sensors Using Red NDVI Compared to Red Edge NDVI for Prediction of Corn Grain Yield in North Dakota, U.S.A.

PubMed Central

Sharma, Lakesh K.; Bu, Honggang; Denton, Anne; Franzen, David W.

2015-01-01

Active-optical sensor readings from an N non-limiting area standard established within a farm field are used to predict yield in the standard. Lower yield predictions from sensor readings obtained from other parts of the field outside of the N non-limiting standard area indicate a need for supplemental N. Active-optical sensor algorithms for predicting corn (Zea mays, L.) yield to direct in-season nitrogen (N) fertilization in corn utilize red NDVI (normalized differential vegetative index). Use of red edge NDVI might improve corn yield prediction at later growth stages when corn leaves cover the inter-row space resulting in “saturation” of red NDVI readings. The purpose of this study was to determine whether the use of red edge NDVI in two active-optical sensors (GreenSeeker™ and Holland Scientific Crop Circle™) improved corn yield prediction. Nitrogen rate experiments were established at 15 sites in North Dakota (ND). Sensor readings were conducted at V6 and V12 corn. Red NDVI and red edge NDVI were similar in the relationship of readings with yield at V6. At V12, the red edge NDVI was superior to the red NDVI in most comparisons, indicating that it would be most useful in developing late-season N application algorithms. PMID:26540057

Active-Optical Sensors Using Red NDVI Compared to Red Edge NDVI for Prediction of Corn Grain Yield in North Dakota, U.S.A.

PubMed

Sharma, Lakesh K; Bu, Honggang; Denton, Anne; Franzen, David W

2015-11-02

Active-optical sensor readings from an N non-limiting area standard established within a farm field are used to predict yield in the standard. Lower yield predictions from sensor readings obtained from other parts of the field outside of the N non-limiting standard area indicate a need for supplemental N. Active-optical sensor algorithms for predicting corn (Zea mays, L.) yield to direct in-season nitrogen (N) fertilization in corn utilize red NDVI (normalized differential vegetative index). Use of red edge NDVI might improve corn yield prediction at later growth stages when corn leaves cover the inter-row space resulting in "saturation" of red NDVI readings. The purpose of this study was to determine whether the use of red edge NDVI in two active-optical sensors (GreenSeeker™ and Holland Scientific Crop Circle™) improved corn yield prediction. Nitrogen rate experiments were established at 15 sites in North Dakota (ND). Sensor readings were conducted at V6 and V12 corn. Red NDVI and red edge NDVI were similar in the relationship of readings with yield at V6. At V12, the red edge NDVI was superior to the red NDVI in most comparisons, indicating that it would be most useful in developing late-season N application algorithms.

Evaluation of classifier topologies for the real-time classification of simultaneous limb motions.

PubMed

Ortiz-Catalan, Max; Branemark, Rickard; Hakansson, Bo

2013-01-01

The prediction of motion intent through the decoding of myoelectric signals has the potential to improve the functionally of limb prostheses. Considerable research on individual motion classifiers has been done to exploit this idea. A drawback with the individual prediction approach, however, is its limitation to serial control, which is slow, cumbersome, and unnatural. In this work, different classifier topologies suitable for the decoding of mixed classes, and thus capable of predicting simultaneous motions, were investigated in real-time. These topologies resulted in higher offline accuracies than previously achieved, but more importantly, positive indications of their suitability for real-time systems were found. Furthermore, in order to facilitate further development, benchmarking, and cooperation, the algorithms and data generated in this study are freely available as part of BioPatRec, an open source framework for the development of advanced prosthetic control strategies.

Relations between colorblind socialization and children's racial bias: evidence from European American mothers and their preschool children.

PubMed

Pahlke, Erin; Bigler, Rebecca S; Suizzo, Marie-Anne

2012-01-01

To examine European American parents' racial socialization, mothers (n = 84) were videotaped while reading 2 race-themed books to their 4- to 5-year-old children and completed surveys concerning their racial attitudes and behaviors. Children completed measures of their racial attitudes and both groups (mothers and preschoolers) predicted the others' racial attitudes. Results indicated that nearly all mothers adopted "colormute" and "colorblind" approaches to socialization. Furthermore, neither children nor mothers accurately predicted the others' views. Children's racial attitudes were unrelated to their mothers' attitudes but were predicted by their mothers' cross-race friendships; those children whose mothers had a higher percentage of non-European American friends showed lower levels of racial biases than those children whose mothers had a lower percentage of non-European American friends. © 2012 The Authors. Child Development © 2012 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

Preliminary study of soil permeability properties using principal component analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yulianti, M.; Sudriani, Y.; Rustini, H. A.

2018-02-01

Soil permeability measurement is undoubtedly important in carrying out soil-water research such as rainfall-runoff modelling, irrigation water distribution systems, etc. It is also known that acquiring reliable soil permeability data is rather laborious, time-consuming, and costly. Therefore, it is desirable to develop the prediction model. Several studies of empirical equations for predicting permeability have been undertaken by many researchers. These studies derived the models from areas which soil characteristics are different from Indonesian soil, which suggest a possibility that these permeability models are site-specific. The purpose of this study is to identify which soil parameters correspond strongly to soil permeability and propose a preliminary model for permeability prediction. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to 16 parameters analysed from 37 sites consist of 91 samples obtained from Batanghari Watershed. Findings indicated five variables that have strong correlation with soil permeability, and we recommend a preliminary permeability model, which is potential for further development.

Adolescents Occupational and Educational Goals: A Test of Reciprocal Relations

PubMed Central

Beal, Sarah J.; Crockett, Lisa J.

2013-01-01

During adolescence, young people’s future aspirations and expectations begin to crystallize, especially in the domains of education and occupation. Much of the research in this area has emphasized development within a particular domain (e.g., education) and relations between aspirations and expectations across domains remain largely unexplored, resulting in a lack of information on how goals develop in tandem and affect each other. It is also unclear whether these developmental processes differ by gender and socioeconomic status. We tested reciprocal effects between occupational and educational goals using a longitudinal sample of 636 adolescents (52% boys). Results from dynamic systems models indicated change in occupational and educational goals across high school. For all youth, occupational aspirations predicted change in occupational expectations. Educational expectations predicted change in occupational aspirations for youth in high but not low parent education groups, and occupational expectations predicted change in educational expectations for girls but not boys. PMID:23997383

Sources of Variability in Children’s Language Growth

PubMed Central

Huttenlocher, Janellen; Waterfall, Heidi; Vasilyeva, Marina; Vevea, Jack; Hedges, Larry V.

2010-01-01

The present longitudinal study examines the role of caregiver speech in language development, especially syntactic development, using 47 parent-child pairs of diverse SES background from 14 to 46 months. We assess the diversity (variety) of words and syntactic structures produced by caregivers and children. We use lagged correlations to examine language growth and its relation to caregiver speech. Results show substantial individual differences among children, and indicate that diversity of earlier caregiver speech significantly predicts corresponding diversity in later child speech. For vocabulary, earlier child speech also predicts later caregiver speech, suggesting mutual influence. However, for syntax, earlier child speech does not significantly predict later caregiver speech, suggesting a causal flow from caregiver to child. Finally, demographic factors, notably SES, are related to language growth, and are, at least partially, mediated by differences in caregiver speech, showing the pervasive influence of caregiver speech on language growth. PMID:20832781

QSAR study of anthranilic acid sulfonamides as inhibitors of methionine aminopeptidase-2 using LS-SVM and GRNN based on principal components.

PubMed

Shahlaei, Mohsen; Sabet, Razieh; Ziari, Maryam Bahman; Moeinifard, Behzad; Fassihi, Afshin; Karbakhsh, Reza

2010-10-01

Quantitative relationships between molecular structure and methionine aminopeptidase-2 inhibitory activity of a series of cytotoxic anthranilic acid sulfonamide derivatives were discovered. We have demonstrated the detailed application of two efficient nonlinear methods for evaluation of quantitative structure-activity relationships of the studied compounds. Components produced by principal component analysis as input of developed nonlinear models were used. The performance of the developed models namely PC-GRNN and PC-LS-SVM were tested by several validation methods. The resulted PC-LS-SVM model had a high statistical quality (R(2)=0.91 and R(CV)(2)=0.81) for predicting the cytotoxic activity of the compounds. Comparison between predictability of PC-GRNN and PC-LS-SVM indicates that later method has higher ability to predict the activity of the studied molecules. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Empirical Evaluation of Hunk Metrics as Bug Predictors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferzund, Javed; Ahsan, Syed Nadeem; Wotawa, Franz

Reducing the number of bugs is a crucial issue during software development and maintenance. Software process and product metrics are good indicators of software complexity. These metrics have been used to build bug predictor models to help developers maintain the quality of software. In this paper we empirically evaluate the use of hunk metrics as predictor of bugs. We present a technique for bug prediction that works at smallest units of code change called hunks. We build bug prediction models using random forests, which is an efficient machine learning classifier. Hunk metrics are used to train the classifier and each hunk metric is evaluated for its bug prediction capabilities. Our classifier can classify individual hunks as buggy or bug-free with 86 % accuracy, 83 % buggy hunk precision and 77% buggy hunk recall. We find that history based and change level hunk metrics are better predictors of bugs than code level hunk metrics.

Constitutive flow behaviour of austenitic stainless steels under hot deformation: artificial neural network modelling to understand, evaluate and predict

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandal, Sumantra; Sivaprasad, P. V.; Venugopal, S.; Murthy, K. P. N.

2006-09-01

An artificial neural network (ANN) model is developed to predict the constitutive flow behaviour of austenitic stainless steels during hot deformation. The input parameters are alloy composition and process variables whereas flow stress is the output. The model is based on a three-layer feed-forward ANN with a back-propagation learning algorithm. The neural network is trained with an in-house database obtained from hot compression tests on various grades of austenitic stainless steels. The performance of the model is evaluated using a wide variety of statistical indices. Good agreement between experimental and predicted data is obtained. The correlation between individual alloying elements and high temperature flow behaviour is investigated by employing the ANN model. The results are found to be consistent with the physical phenomena. The model can be used as a guideline for new alloy development.

Seasonal Extratropical Storm Activity Potential Predictability and its Origins during the Cold Seasons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pingree-Shippee, K. A.; Zwiers, F. W.; Atkinson, D. E.

2016-12-01

Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) often produce extreme hazardous weather conditions, such as high winds, blizzard conditions, heavy precipitation, and flooding, all of which can have detrimental socio-economic impacts. The North American east and west coastal regions are both strongly influenced by ETCs and, subsequently, land-based, coastal, and maritime economic sectors in Canada and the USA all experience strong adverse impacts from extratropical storm activity from time to time. Society would benefit if risks associated with ETCs and storm activity variability could be reliably predicted for the upcoming season. Skillful prediction would enable affected sectors to better anticipate, prepare for, manage, and respond to storm activity variability and the associated risks and impacts. In this study, the potential predictability of seasonal variations in extratropical storm activity is investigated using analysis of variance to provide quantitative and geographical observational evidence indicative of whether it may be possible to predict storm activity on the seasonal timescale. This investigation will also identify origins of the potential predictability using composite analysis and large-scale teleconnections (Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation), providing the basis upon which seasonal predictions can be developed. Seasonal potential predictability and its origins are investigated for the cold seasons (OND, NDJ, DJF, JFM) during the 1979-2015 time period using daily mean sea level pressure, absolute pressure tendency, and 10-m wind speed from the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis as proxies for extratropical storm activity. Results indicate potential predictability of seasonal variations in storm activity in areas strongly influenced by ETCs and with origins in the investigated teleconnections. For instance, the North Pacific storm track has considerable potential predictability and with notable origins in the SO and PDO.

Using pattern recognition as a method for predicting extreme events in natural and socio-economic systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Intriligator, M.

2011-12-01

Vladimir (Volodya) Keilis-Borok has pioneered the use of pattern recognition as a technique for analyzing and forecasting developments in natural as well as socio-economic systems. Keilis-Borok's work on predicting earthquakes and landslides using this technique as a leading geophysicist has been recognized around the world. Keilis-Borok has also been a world leader in the application of pattern recognition techniques to the analysis and prediction of socio-economic systems. He worked with Allan Lichtman of American University in using such techniques to predict presidential elections in the U.S. Keilis-Borok and I have worked together with others on the use of pattern recognition techniques to analyze and to predict socio-economic systems. We have used this technique to study the pattern of macroeconomic indicators that would predict the end of an economic recession in the U.S. We have also worked with officers in the Los Angeles Police Department to use this technique to predict surges of homicides in Los Angeles.

Revisiting the Holy Grail: using plant functional traits to understand ecological processes.

PubMed

Funk, Jennifer L; Larson, Julie E; Ames, Gregory M; Butterfield, Bradley J; Cavender-Bares, Jeannine; Firn, Jennifer; Laughlin, Daniel C; Sutton-Grier, Ariana E; Williams, Laura; Wright, Justin

2017-05-01

One of ecology's grand challenges is developing general rules to explain and predict highly complex systems. Understanding and predicting ecological processes from species' traits has been considered a 'Holy Grail' in ecology. Plant functional traits are increasingly being used to develop mechanistic models that can predict how ecological communities will respond to abiotic and biotic perturbations and how species will affect ecosystem function and services in a rapidly changing world; however, significant challenges remain. In this review, we highlight recent work and outstanding questions in three areas: (i) selecting relevant traits; (ii) describing intraspecific trait variation and incorporating this variation into models; and (iii) scaling trait data to community- and ecosystem-level processes. Over the past decade, there have been significant advances in the characterization of plant strategies based on traits and trait relationships, and the integration of traits into multivariate indices and models of community and ecosystem function. However, the utility of trait-based approaches in ecology will benefit from efforts that demonstrate how these traits and indices influence organismal, community, and ecosystem processes across vegetation types, which may be achieved through meta-analysis and enhancement of trait databases. Additionally, intraspecific trait variation and species interactions need to be incorporated into predictive models using tools such as Bayesian hierarchical modelling. Finally, existing models linking traits to community and ecosystem processes need to be empirically tested for their applicability to be realized. © 2016 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Understanding less than nothing: children's neural response to negative numbers shifts across age and accuracy.

PubMed

Gullick, Margaret M; Wolford, George

2013-01-01

We examined the brain activity underlying the development of our understanding of negative numbers, which are amounts lacking direct physical counterparts. Children performed a paired comparison task with positive and negative numbers during an fMRI session. As previously shown in adults, both pre-instruction fifth-graders and post-instruction seventh-graders demonstrated typical behavioral and neural distance effects to negative numbers, where response times and parietal and frontal activity increased as comparison distance decreased. We then determined the factors impacting the distance effect in each age group. Behaviorally, the fifth-grader distance effect for negatives was significantly predicted only by positive comparison accuracy, indicating that children who were generally better at working with numbers were better at comparing negatives. In seventh-graders, negative number comparison accuracy significantly predicted their negative number distance effect, indicating that children who were better at working with negative numbers demonstrated a more typical distance effect. Across children, as age increased, the negative number distance effect increased in the bilateral IPS and decreased frontally, indicating a frontoparietal shift consistent with previous numerical development literature. In contrast, as negative comparison task accuracy increased, the parietal distance effect increased in the left IPS and decreased in the right, possibly indicating a change from an approximate understanding of negatives' values to a more exact, precise representation (particularly supported by the left IPS) with increasing expertise. These shifts separately indicate the effects of increasing maturity generally in numeric processing and specifically in negative number understanding.

Modeling to predict growth/no growth boundaries and kinetic behavior of Salmonella on cutting board surfaces.

PubMed

Yoon, Hyunjoo; Lee, Joo-Yeon; Suk, Hee-Jin; Lee, Sunah; Lee, Heeyoung; Lee, Soomin; Yoon, Yohan

2012-12-01

This study developed models to predict the growth probabilities and kinetic behavior of Salmonella enterica strains on cutting boards. Polyethylene coupons (3 by 5 cm) were rubbed with pork belly, and pork purge was then sprayed on the coupon surface, followed by inoculation of a five-strain Salmonella mixture onto the surface of the coupons. These coupons were stored at 13 to 35°C for 12 h, and total bacterial and Salmonella cell counts were enumerated on tryptic soy agar and xylose lysine deoxycholate (XLD) agar, respectively, every 2 h, which produced 56 combinations. The combinations that had growth of ≥0.5 log CFU/cm(2) of Salmonella bacteria recovered on XLD agar were given the value 1 (growth), and the combinations that had growth of <0.5 log CFU/cm(2) were assigned the value 0 (no growth). These growth response data from XLD agar were analyzed by logistic regression for producing growth/no growth interfaces of Salmonella bacteria. In addition, a linear model was fitted to the Salmonella cell counts to calculate the growth rate (log CFU per square centimeter per hour) and initial cell count (log CFU per square centimeter), following secondary modeling with the square root model. All of the models developed were validated with observed data, which were not used for model development. Growth of total bacteria and Salmonella cells was observed at 28, 30, 33, and 35°C, but there was no growth detected below 20°C within the time frame investigated. Moreover, various indices indicated that the performance of the developed models was acceptable. The results suggest that the models developed in this study may be useful in predicting the growth/no growth interface and kinetic behavior of Salmonella bacteria on polyethylene cutting boards.

Evaluating the validity of using unverified indices of body condition

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schamber, J.L.; Esler, Daniel N.; Flint, Paul L.

2009-01-01

Condition indices are commonly used in an attempt to link body condition of birds to ecological variables of interest, including demographic attributes such as survival and reproduction. Most indices are based on body mass adjusted for structural body size, calculated as simple ratios or residuals from regressions. However, condition indices are often applied without confirming their predictive value (i.e., without being validated against measured values of fat and protein), which we term ‘unverified’ use. We evaluated the ability of a number of unverified indices frequently found in the literature to predict absolute and proportional levels of fat and protein across five species of waterfowl. Among indices we considered, those accounting for body size never predicted absolute protein more precisely than body mass, however, some indices improved predictability of fat, although the form of the best index varied by species. Further, the gain in precision by using a condition index to predict either absolute or percent fat was minimal (rise in r2≤0.13), and in many cases model fit was actually reduced. Our data agrees with previous assertions that the assumption that indices provide more precise indicators of body condition than body mass alone is often invalid. We strongly discourage the use of unverified indices, because subjectively selecting indices likely does little to improve precision and might in fact decrease predictability relative to using body mass alone.

Microvascular fractal dimension predicts prognosis and response to chemotherapy in glioblastoma: an automatic image analysis study.

PubMed

Chen, Cong; He, Zhi-Cheng; Shi, Yu; Zhou, Wenchao; Zhang, Xia; Xiao, Hua-Liang; Wu, Hai-Bo; Yao, Xiao-Hong; Luo, Wan-Chun; Cui, You-Hong; Bao, Shideng; Kung, Hsiang-Fu; Bian, Xiu-Wu; Ping, Yi-Fang

2018-05-15

The microvascular profile has been included in the WHO glioma grading criteria. Nevertheless, microvessels in gliomas of the same WHO grade, e.g., WHO IV glioblastoma (GBM), exhibit heterogeneous and polymorphic morphology, whose possible clinical significance remains to be determined. In this study, we employed a fractal geometry-derived parameter, microvascular fractal dimension (mvFD), to quantify microvessel complexity and developed a home-made macro in Image J software to automatically determine mvFD from the microvessel-stained immunohistochemical images of GBM. We found that mvFD effectively quantified the morphological complexity of GBM microvasculature. Furthermore, high mvFD favored the survival of GBM patients as an independent prognostic indicator and predicted a better response to chemotherapy of GBM patients. When investigating the underlying relations between mvFD and tumor growth by deploying Ki67/mvFD as an index for microvasculature-normalized tumor proliferation, we discovered an inverse correlation between mvFD and Ki67/mvFD. Furthermore, mvFD inversely correlated with the expressions of a glycolytic marker, LDHA, which indicated poor prognosis of GBM patients. Conclusively, we developed an automatic approach for mvFD measurement, and demonstrated that mvFD could predict the prognosis and response to chemotherapy of GBM patients.

Predictable weathering of puparial hydrocarbons of necrophagous flies for determining the postmortem interval: a field experiment using Chrysomya rufifacies.

PubMed

Zhu, Guang-Hui; Jia, Zheng-Jun; Yu, Xiao-Jun; Wu, Ku-Sheng; Chen, Lu-Shi; Lv, Jun-Yao; Eric Benbow, M

2017-05-01

Preadult development of necrophagous flies is commonly recognized as an accurate method for estimating the minimum postmortem interval (PMImin). However, once the PMImin exceeds the duration of preadult development, the method is less accurate. Recently, fly puparial hydrocarbons were found to significantly change with weathering time in the field, indicating their potential use for PMImin estimates. However, additional studies are required to demonstrate how the weathering varies among species. In this study, the puparia of Chrysomya rufifacies were placed in the field to experience natural weathering to characterize hydrocarbon composition change over time. We found that weathering of the puparial hydrocarbons was regular and highly predictable in the field. For most of the hydrocarbons, the abundance decreased significantly and could be modeled using a modified exponent function. In addition, the weathering rate was significantly correlated with the hydrocarbon classes. The weathering rate of 2-methyl alkanes was significantly lower than that of alkenes and internal methyl alkanes, and alkenes were higher than the other two classes. For mono-methyl alkanes, the rate was significantly and positively associated with carbon chain length and branch position. These results indicate that puparial hydrocarbon weathering is highly predictable and can be used for estimating long-term PMImin.

Sex differences in personality traits and gender-related occupational preferences across 53 nations: testing evolutionary and social-environmental theories.

PubMed

Lippa, Richard A

2010-06-01

Using data from over 200,000 participants from 53 nations, I examined the cross-cultural consistency of sex differences for four traits: extraversion, agreeableness, neuroticism, and male-versus-female-typical occupational preferences. Across nations, men and women differed significantly on all four traits (mean ds = -.15, -.56, -.41, and 1.40, respectively, with negative values indicating women scoring higher). The strongest evidence for sex differences in SDs was for extraversion (women more variable) and for agreeableness (men more variable). United Nations indices of gender equality and economic development were associated with larger sex differences in agreeableness, but not with sex differences in other traits. Gender equality and economic development were negatively associated with mean national levels of neuroticism, suggesting that economic stress was associated with higher neuroticism. Regression analyses explored the power of sex, gender equality, and their interaction to predict men's and women's 106 national trait means for each of the four traits. Only sex predicted means for all four traits, and sex predicted trait means much more strongly than did gender equality or the interaction between sex and gender equality. These results suggest that biological factors may contribute to sex differences in personality and that culture plays a negligible to small role in moderating sex differences in personality.

New developments in cerebral blood flow autoregulation analysis in preterm infants: a mechanistic approach.

PubMed

Riera, Joan; Cabañas, Fernando; Serrano, José Javier; Madero, Rosario; Pellicer, Adelina

2016-03-01

Impaired autoregulation capacity implies that changes in cerebral perfusion follow changes in blood pressure; however, no analytical method has explored such a signal causality relationship in infants. We sought to develop a method to assess cerebral autoregulation from a mechanistic point of view and explored the predictive capacity of the method to classify infants at risk for adverse outcomes. The partial directed coherence (PDC) method, which considers synchronicity and directionality of signal dependence across frequencies, was used to analyze the relationship between spontaneous changes in mean arterial pressure (MAP) and the cerebral tissue oxygenation index (TOI). PDCMAP>TOI indicated that changes in TOI were induced by MAP changes, and PDCTOI>MAP indicated the opposite. The PDCMAP>TOI and PDCTOI>MAP values differed. PDCMAP>TOI adjusted by gestational age predicted low superior vena cava flow (≤41 ml/kg per min), with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.72 (95% CI: 0.63-0.81; P < 0.001), whereas PDCTOI>MAP did not. The adjusted pPDCMAP>TOI (the average value per patient) predicted severe intracranial hemorrhage and mortality. PDCMAP>TOI allows for a noninvasive physiological interpretation of the pressure autoregulation process in neonates. PDCMAP>TOI is a good classifier for infants at risk of brain hypoperfusion and adverse outcomes.

Seasonal forecasting of high wind speeds over Western Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palutikof, J. P.; Holt, T.

2003-04-01

As financial losses associated with extreme weather events escalate, there is interest from end users in the forestry and insurance industries, for example, in the development of seasonal forecasting models with a long lead time. This study uses exceedences of the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles of daily maximum wind speed over the period 1958 to present to derive predictands of winter wind extremes. The source data is the 6-hourly NCEP Reanalysis gridded surface wind field. Predictor variables include principal components of Atlantic sea surface temperature and several indices of climate variability, including the NAO and SOI. Lead times of up to a year are considered, in monthly increments. Three regression techniques are evaluated; multiple linear regression (MLR), principal component regression (PCR), and partial least squares regression (PLS). PCR and PLS proved considerably superior to MLR with much lower standard errors. PLS was chosen to formulate the predictive model since it offers more flexibility in experimental design and gave slightly better results than PCR. The results indicate that winter windiness can be predicted with considerable skill one year ahead for much of coastal Europe, but that this deteriorates rapidly in the hinterland. The experiment succeeded in highlighting PLS as a very useful method for developing more precise forecasting models, and in identifying areas of high predictability.

DPDR-CPI, a server that predicts Drug Positioning and Drug Repositioning via Chemical-Protein Interactome.

PubMed

Luo, Heng; Zhang, Ping; Cao, Xi Hang; Du, Dizheng; Ye, Hao; Huang, Hui; Li, Can; Qin, Shengying; Wan, Chunling; Shi, Leming; He, Lin; Yang, Lun

2016-11-02

The cost of developing a new drug has increased sharply over the past years. To ensure a reasonable return-on-investment, it is useful for drug discovery researchers in both industry and academia to identify all the possible indications for early pipeline molecules. For the first time, we propose the term computational "drug candidate positioning" or "drug positioning", to describe the above process. It is distinct from drug repositioning, which identifies new uses for existing drugs and maximizes their value. Since many therapeutic effects are mediated by unexpected drug-protein interactions, it is reasonable to analyze the chemical-protein interactome (CPI) profiles to predict indications. Here we introduce the server DPDR-CPI, which can make real-time predictions based only on the structure of the small molecule. When a user submits a molecule, the server will dock it across 611 human proteins, generating a CPI profile of features that can be used for predictions. It can suggest the likelihood of relevance of the input molecule towards ~1,000 human diseases with top predictions listed. DPDR-CPI achieved an overall AUROC of 0.78 during 10-fold cross-validations and AUROC of 0.76 for the independent validation. The server is freely accessible via http://cpi.bio-x.cn/dpdr/.