Population Growth and Economic Development: Lessons from Selected Asian Countries. Policy Development Studies, Number 10.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mason, Andrew; And Others

The major findings of a research project on the relationship between population growth and economic development are summarized in this monograph. The study compares recent demographic and economic trends in Japan, Korea, Thailand, and Indonesia to worldwide experience as described by an econometric model of population and development. The study…

Population stress: A spatiotemporal analysis of population change and land development at the county level in the contiguous United States, 2001-2011.

PubMed

Chi, Guangqing; Ho, Hung Chak

2018-01-01

The past century has witnessed rapidly increasing population-land conflicts due to exponential population growth and its many consequences. Although the measures of population-land conflicts are many, there lacks a model that appropriately considers both the social and physical contexts of population-land conflicts. In this study we introduce the concept of population stress , which identifies areas with populations growing faster than the lands available for sustainable development. Specifically, population stress areas are identified by comparing population growth and land development as measured by land developability in the contiguous United States from 2001 to 2011. Our approach is based on a combination of spatial multicriteria analysis, zonal statistics, and spatiotemporal modeling. We found that the population growth of a county is associated with the decrease of land developability, along with the spatial influences of surrounding counties. The Midwest and the traditional "Deep South" counties would have less population stress with future land development, whereas the Southeast Coast, Washington State, Northern Texas, and the Southwest would face more stress due to population growth that is faster than the loss of suitable lands for development. The factors contributing to population stress may differ from place to place. Our population stress concept is useful and innovative for understanding population stress due to land development and can be applied to other regions as well as global research. It can act as a basis towards developing coherent sustainable land use policies. Coordination among local governments and across different levels of governments in the twenty-first century is a must for effective land use planning.

Poverty-led higher population growth in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Nakibullah, A; Rahman, A

1996-01-01

This article discusses the issue whether population growth is exogenous or endogenous in the economic development of Bangladesh. Overpopulation adversely affects food supplies, foreign exchange, and human resources. Moreover, it depresses savings per capita and retards growth of physical capital per labor. Underdeveloped countries, like Bangladesh, are faced with the problem of allocating resources between infrastructure, education, and health service that are essential for human capital development and population control measures. With this, determination whether fertility is exogenous or endogenous is important for policy purposes in the context of Bangladesh. Results showed that there is a correlation between population growth and real gross domestic products per capita. Based on Granger causality test, population growth is endogenous in the development process of Bangladesh and its overpopulation is due to poverty. Thus, there is a need for appropriate policy to take measures to improve human capital and decrease fertility rates.

Mortality Reduction, Fertility Decline, and Population Growth: Toward a More Relevant Assessment of the Relationships among Them. World Bank Staff Working Papers No. 686 and Population and Development Series No. 11.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gwatkin, Davidson

One of a special series on population change and development, this paper focuses primarily on the programs and policies responsible for mortality or fertility change, rather than on the growth impact of a mortality or fertility change per se. The first portion of the document examines three models for assessing the population growth implications…

Urbanization and the problem of restricting the growth of very large cities.

PubMed

Bialkovskaia, V; Novikov, V

1983-10-01

This article discusses the problem of preventing the excessive growth of very large cities to the detriment of the development of smaller urban settlements in the USSR. The increase in size of the urban population throughout the entire USSR is mainly connected with the increase in the number of city dwellers. In 1960 and 1970 the number of largest cities in the USSR increased, along with a share of the nation's population living in these large cities. The low natural increase in population of very large cities creates a high demand for labor power which must come from the population of other cities. In 1970-1980, Moscow, one of the largest millionaire cities, had the lowest population growth rate of all major USSR cities (113.7%). The growth of Moscow and other very large cities in the last few years has been due to the mechanical increase in population and the increase in area. The analysis of Moscow's pattern of population growth over time focuses on changes in the level of availability of social and everyday services. The prewar period is characterized by a reserve of labor resources, the highest growth in industry and science, but a low overall population dynamic in the city. In the postwar period there was a significant decline in the annual increase of all indicators; this was a period of strong social development of the city. The period between 1966 and 1980 shows a further slowdown in the growth rate of city forming branches by an accelerated development of municipal service branches. The demand for measures to restrict the growth of very large Soviet cities depends on: 1) the reorientation of the development of the economic base, 2) the restructuring of their economy, and 3) the siting of various types of production of goods and services. Developing the specialization of the urban economy consists of planned development of the production of goods and services based on the use of available resources.

Population growth and economic development: two new U.S. perspectives.

PubMed

Wulf, D; Klitsch, M

1986-01-01

This report compares the research paths of economic development reports by the US National Academy of Sciences (NAS) and the American Assembly of Columbia University. The NAS group, made up principally of economists and demographers, refrained from recommending population reduction targets, in contrast to the stronger terms of its 1971 report. A 1965 report by the Assembly spoke of population as a serious negative influence for economic development, political stability, and world peace, while the new report speaks of negative socioeconomic effects, and of the limiting of a person's right to control family size. The NAS agenda was established before the US delegation to the UN population conference in Mexico City retreated from declaring population growth to be a necessarily negative influencer of socioeconomic progress. The Assembly took the position that possible benefits of population growth would be far outweighed by factors such as resource depletion and women's health. The NAS maintained that growth might provide incentives for institutional adjustments (market development, investment in education) and control of growth should not be considered a substitute for such interventions. Both reports agree that control of fertility is a human right, but the NAS report examined the question of the acceptable degree of compulsion to be used to encourage couples. The Assembly objected to limiting access to family planning by defunding abortion programs oversease. Differences exist between the 2 reports in questins such as the negative impact of 1950's population growth, the synergistic effect of growth on many areas of human activity, the extent to which welfare of future generations is considered relevant today, and the adequacy of pure economic analysis in assessing need. Much study of population/development linkages is still required.

Snowballing movement. Legislators are now active advocates regarding population and development.

PubMed

De Leon, B D

1992-08-01

Newly industrializing economies (NIEs) in East Asia have demonstrated that the population programs were part of their economic success, such as in Thailand and Indonesia where family planning (FP) was made a way of life. The population growth in the Philippines has put pressure on the environment by migration to uplands where slash-and-burn agriculture adds to deforestation. The Global Committee of Parliamentarians of Population and Development headquartered in New York serves as a liaison for 56 legislative groups sponsoring meetings and seminars. In October 1981 the Asian Conference on Parliamentarians on Population and Development was held in Beijing with the participation of legislators from 19 countries. It set up the Asian Forum for Parliamentarians on Population and Development to contribute and promote activities that facilitate population and development, and to improve the living standards and welfare of people in Asia. The Secretariat is located in Bangkok, Thailand. In October 1987 in Beijing and in October 1990 follow-up regional conferences were organized. The latter was attended by 21 Asian parliamentarians who endorsed the stabilization of population growth to achieve a 1% growth rate for Asia by 2000. The Philippine population numbered 63.9 million in mid-1992 with an annual growth rate of 2.3%. The Philippine House of Representatives started an inquiry about the disturbing demographic trends with implications on economic growth. In 1987 a movement commenced that hosted the Philippine Parliamentarians Conference on Human Survival, Population and Development (PARLCON '88) in Manila. It focused on sustainable development, the conditions of women and children, the environment, and the promotion of FP which was adopted by the House and involved a major segment of legislators.

New roads toward North-South cooperation.

PubMed

Terpstra, E G

1989-12-01

A Netherlands Parliament member gives a European Perspective on population and development, problems in urban development, and methods of cooperation between industrialized and developing countries. On population and development, the relationship between population explosion and poverty, underdevelopment, environment, social infrastructure, and food shortages is pointed out. Most population growth in the years ahead will be in developing countries. Rampant population growth and burgeoning poverty strain the world's carrying capacity and environment, both in industrial and developing countries. Development policy and cooperation will fail in the absence of efforts to stem population growth. On this front, religious and political leaders have groundbreaking cooperative steps in supporting international family planning efforts through the global forum of Spiritual and Parliamentary Leaders on Human Survival. Economic development, environment, and population issues are inexorably tied together. The numerous problems faced by uncontrolled Third World urbanization are discussed with potential solutions for change. Incorporating women in the development process is strongly encouraged. The interdependent North-South relationship is discussed. All nations, the private sector, nongovernmental organizations, and women must cooperate to find solutions and effect positive change on a case-by-case basis.

Population pressure. The road from Rio is paved with factions.

PubMed

Holloway, M

1992-09-01

Groups focused on women's rights, family planning and health, environmental protection, reduced consumption of natural resources, economic development and population control differ greatly in their views of population pressure's role in preventing sustainable development. Yet, it is these same groups that should be working together to achieve sustainable development. Some speakers at the 1991 UN Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, encouraged world leaders to take immediate steps to deal with population growth and stated that poverty, environment, and population are intertwined. At the same time in the same city, panel participants at the Global Forum, attended by almost 2000 nongovernmental organizations, considered population control as a violation of women's rights, as a means to circumvent poverty eradication in developing countries, and as a means to suppress the poor in developing countries. These debates, whether population control or economic development is the best means to reduce population growth have been occurring since 1968. In the interim, the world population has increased form 3.5-5.5 billion. The population growth rate has fallen from 2-1.7%, however, but 97 million more people will appear on this earth each year during the 1990s. Because any discussion of contraceptives and family planning may be misinterpreted by members as abortion, many environmental groups do not address it. They also fear undertaking immigration issues, since past attempts were labelled as racist. Nevertheless, more and more organizations, e.g., the Natural Resources Defense Council, are beginning to address the need to focus on population growth to prevent environmental degradation. Further, some foundations, e.g., the Pew Charitable Trusts, are offering grants to environmental groups to begin population programs. All too often development plans neglect family health and do not consider the concerns of the target population.

Population priorities: the challenge of continued rapid population growth.

PubMed

Turner, Adair

2009-10-27

Rapid population growth continues in the least developed countries. The revisionist case that rapid population could be overcome by technology, that population density was advantageous, that capital shallowing is not a vital concern and that empirical investigations had not proved a correlation between high population growth and low per capita income was both empirically and theoretically flawed. In the modern world, population density does not play the role it did in nineteenth-century Europe and rates of growth in some of today's least developed nations are four times than those in nineteenth-century Europe, and without major accumulation of capital per capita, no major economy has or is likely to make the low- to middle-income transition. Though not sufficient, capital accumulation for growth is absolutely essential to economic growth. While there are good reasons for objecting to the enforced nature of the Chinese one-child policy, we should not underestimate the positive impact which that policy has almost certainly had and will have over the next several decades on Chinese economic performance. And a valid reticence about telling developing countries that they must contain fertility should not lead us to underestimate the severely adverse impact of high fertility rates on the economic performance and prospects of many countries in Africa and the Middle East.

Nutrition, Development, and Population Growth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Berg, Alan

1973-01-01

Focuses on the problem of malnutrition in developing countries through a description of its interrelationships with human development, national economies, economic growth and income, agricultural advances, the crisis in infant feeding practices, new foods, and the population dilemma. Outlines possible future policy directions to significantly…

Effects of climate change on plant population growth rate and community composition change.

PubMed

Chang, Xiao-Yu; Chen, Bao-Ming; Liu, Gang; Zhou, Ting; Jia, Xiao-Rong; Peng, Shao-Lin

2015-01-01

The impacts of climate change on forest community composition are still not well known. Although directional trends in climate change and community composition change were reported in recent years, further quantitative analyses are urgently needed. Previous studies focused on measuring population growth rates in a single time period, neglecting the development of the populations. Here we aimed to compose a method for calculating the community composition change, and to testify the impacts of climate change on community composition change within a relatively short period (several decades) based on long-term monitoring data from two plots-Dinghushan Biosphere Reserve, China (DBR) and Barro Colorado Island, Panama (BCI)-that are located in tropical and subtropical regions. We proposed a relatively more concise index, Slnλ, which refers to an overall population growth rate based on the dominant species in a community. The results indicated that the population growth rate of a majority of populations has decreased over the past few decades. This decrease was mainly caused by population development. The increasing temperature had a positive effect on population growth rates and community change rates. Our results promote understanding and explaining variations in population growth rates and community composition rates, and are helpful to predict population dynamics and population responses to climate change.

[Doctoral thesis: Demographic growth and economic and social development in Mali].

PubMed

Dabo, K

1999-12-01

A doctoral thesis is described analyzing the relationships between demographic growth and economic and social development in Mali. The hypothesis is stated that demographic growth impedes economic development and any improvement in populations¿ standards of living. The hypothesis was verified using data for the period from 1960 to the present. Over that period, Mali conducted two general population censuses in 1976 and 1987, as well as several demographic research studies. The thesis is comprised of 4 parts, of which the first generally describes Mali. The second part analyzes the relationship between population growth and economic and social development in Mali. Study results are presented, followed by an analysis of the effects of economic and social development upon population growth in Mali through factors such as urbanization, education level, literacy, income, employment, occupation, gross domestic or gross national product by inhabitant, infant mortality rate, life expectancy at birth, contraceptive practice, fertility opinions and desires, women¿s status, and migration in Mali. Analysis indicates that Mali has not completely begun its demographic transition, but that traditional pronatalist behaviors are changing. Population policies and programs are explored in the third part of the thesis, followed by the fourth part which focuses upon methodological questions.

Statement by Minister Peng Peiyun at the International Conference on Population and Development.

PubMed

Peng, P

1994-10-01

The speech of Madam Peng Peiyun, state counselor and minister of the State Family Planning Commission in China, before the International Conference on Population and Development in Cairo in 1994, emphasized 6 basic points about fertility decline. 1) Population as an issue is about development. The only solution is to work toward sustained development of productivity while promoting social and economic development in environmentally protected ways. 2) Governments should provide "acceptable, obtainable, and affordable" quality family planning services. Governments should help couples and individuals freely and responsibly decide on childbearing without coercion. 3) There is no one recommended model for reducing rapid population growth and enhancing development. Countries have different cultures, levels of economic development, population conditions, and historical traditions. 4) Women's status should be improved through expansion of opportunities for education, involvement in politics and economic development, legal protection of women's rights and interests, and "realization of gender equality." Women need more information, education, and counseling on reproductive health and family planning. Males need to take more responsibility for family planning. 5) International cooperation and government responsibility are required for stabilization of population growth and attainment of sustainable development. Developing countries need improved economic conditions, increased investment in population and development programs, and transfers of technology from developed countries. The principles of mutual respect and mutual benefit according to the spirit of the UN Charter should prevail. UN organizational support should function according to the principles of universality and neutrality. 6) China's goal is to achieve sustained economic growth and development, to meet the material and cultural needs of the Chinese people, and to improve the quality of Chinese life. Without controlled population growth in China, 1.2 billion people will not have sufficient food and clothing and mass global migration will occur. About 80 million Chinese people currently are lacking in these basic necessities. China's Agenda 21 and the Outline for Social Development of China 1996-2010 will address these problems and provide strategies for integrated development and fertility decline. China aims to work harder at solving the population growth problems of its own and to try to contribute to global population stabilization, peace, and cooperation.

Population growth and development of Liposcelis pearmani (Psocoptera: Liposcelididae) at constant temperatures and relative humidities.

PubMed

Aminatou, B A; Gautam, S G; Opit, G P; Talley, J; Shakya, K

2011-08-01

Psocids of genus Liposcelis are now considered serious pests of stored products. We investigated the effects of eight temperatures (22.5, 25.0, 27.5, 30.0, 32.5, 35.0, 37.5, and 40.0°C) and four relative humidities (43, 55, 63, and 75%) on population growth and development of the psocid Liposcelis pearmani Lienhard. L. pearmani did not survive at 37.5 and 40.0°C, at all relative humidities tested; at 43% RH, at all temperatures tested; and at 55% RH, at 32.5 and 35°C. The greatest population growth was recorded at 32.5°C and 75% RH (32-fold growth). L. pearmani males have two to four nymphal instars, and the percentages of males with two, three, and four instars were 17, 63, and 20%, respectively. Female L. pearmani have two to five instars, and the percentages of females with two, three, four, and five instars were 5, 39, 55, and 1%, respectively. We developed temperature-dependent development equations for male and female eggs, individual nymphal, combined nymphal, and combined immature stages. Based on 30-d population growth, L. pearmani cannot survive at temperatures >35.0°C; does not thrive at low relative humidities (55%), at temperatures above 25°C; and has a high optimum relative humidity for population growth (75%). Therefore, we expect it to have a more limited distribution compared with other Liposcelis species. These data provide a better understanding of how temperature and RH may influence L. pearmani population dynamics and can be used in population growth models to help develop effective management strategies for this psocid, and to predict its occurrence.

Rapid population growth.

PubMed

1972-01-01

At the current rate of population growth, world population by 2000 is expected to reach 7 billion or more, with developing countries accounting for some 5.4 billion, and economically advanced nations accounting for 1.6 billion. 'Population explosion' is the result of falling mortality rates and continuing high birth rates. Many European countries, and Japan, have already completed what is termed as demographic transition, that is, birth rates have fallen to below 20 births per 1000 population, death rates to 10/1000 population, and annual growth rates are 1% or less; annual growth rates for less developed countries ranged from 2 to 3.5%. Less developed countries can be divided into 3 groups: 1) countries with both high birth and death rates; 2) countries with high birth rates and low death rates; and 3) countries with intermediate and declining birth rates and low death rates. Rapid population growth has serious economic consequences. It encourages inequities in income distribution; it limits rate of growth of gross national product by holding down level of savings and capital investments; it exerts pressure on agricultural production and land; and it creates unemployment problems. In addition, the quality of education for increasing number of chidren is adversely affected, as high proportions of children reduce the amount that can be spent for the education of each child out of the educational budget; the cost and adequacy of health and welfare services are affected in a similar way. Other serious consequences of rapid population growth are maternal death and illness, and physical and mental retardation of children of very poor families. It is very urgent that over a billion births be prevented in the next 30 years to reduce annual population growth rate from the current 2% to 1% per year.

Major impact: a global population policy can advance human development in the 21st century.

PubMed

Mcnamara, R S

1992-12-01

In Tokyo, Japan, former president of the World Bank, Robert McNamara, addressed the Global Industrial and Social Progress Research Institute Symposium in April 1992. He reiterated a statement he made during his first presentation as president of the World Bank in September 1968--rapid population growth is the leading obstacle to economic growth and social well-being for people living in developing countries. He called for both developed and developing countries to individually and collectively take immediate action to reduce population growth rates, otherwise coercive action will be needed. Rapid population growth prevents countries from achieving sustainable development and jeopardizes our physical environment. It also exacerbates poverty, does not improve the role and status of women, adversely affects the health of children, and does not allow children a chance at a quality life. Even if developing countries were to quickly adopt replacement level fertility rates, high birth rates in the recent past prevent them from reducing fast population growth for decades. For example, with more than 60% of females in Kenya being at least 19 years old (in Sweden they represent just 23%), the population would continue to grow rapidly for 70 years if immediate reduction to replacement level fertility occurred. Mr. McNamara emphasized than any population program must center on initiating or strengthening extensive family planning programs and increasing the rate of economic and social progress. Successful family planning programs require diverse enough family planning services and methods to meet the needs of various unique populations, stressing of family planning derived health benefits to women and children, participation of both the public and private sectors, and political commitment. McNamara calculated that a global family planning program for the year 2000 would cost about US$8 billion. He added that Japan should increase its share of funds to population growth reduction efforts.

From Experiment to Theory: What Can We Learn from Growth Curves?

PubMed

Kareva, Irina; Karev, Georgy

2018-01-01

Finding an appropriate functional form to describe population growth based on key properties of a described system allows making justified predictions about future population development. This information can be of vital importance in all areas of research, ranging from cell growth to global demography. Here, we use this connection between theory and observation to pose the following question: what can we infer about intrinsic properties of a population (i.e., degree of heterogeneity, or dependence on external resources) based on which growth function best fits its growth dynamics? We investigate several nonstandard classes of multi-phase growth curves that capture different stages of population growth; these models include hyperbolic-exponential, exponential-linear, exponential-linear-saturation growth patterns. The constructed models account explicitly for the process of natural selection within inhomogeneous populations. Based on the underlying hypotheses for each of the models, we identify whether the population that it best fits by a particular curve is more likely to be homogeneous or heterogeneous, grow in a density-dependent or frequency-dependent manner, and whether it depends on external resources during any or all stages of its development. We apply these predictions to cancer cell growth and demographic data obtained from the literature. Our theory, if confirmed, can provide an additional biomarker and a predictive tool to complement experimental research.

The earth: can it support 5.2 billion people?

PubMed

Sadik, N

1989-12-01

In the last 20 years the world's population has grown by 1.6 billion and has reached 5.2 billion. The gap in population growth between developing and developed areas will increase in the next decade: at present 77% of the earth's population lives in developing countries. A major demographic factor is the future of urban growth where the number of cities over 5 million will increase to 45 by the end of the century. The aging of the population is another demographic factor found worldwide. By the year 2000, 13% of the population will be over 60: 70% of those will be in developed areas. Most developing countries now have a population policy. The total fertility rate has dropped more than 20% in developing countries since 1970. The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) has devoted a recent report to the purpose of investing in women. The key to the future of mankind is related directly to the extent that women can make decisions affecting their lives. It is apparent that the effects of resource misuse, environmental damage, and population growth crosses national borders indiscriminately. The key elements to a new approach of development are population, environment, and the role and status of women. In the development of national conservation policies and in the implementing a world strategy, the population environmental relationship will need to be addressed. Since women are directly and indirectly related to the environment by the tasks they perform they are also the most directly effected by environmental degradation. A new approach is needed for balanced development that recognized social, economic, population and environmental relationships. A realistic set of goals for population policy would be to slow the rapid population growth, decrease infant, child and maternal mortality, raise the status of women, and regulate the migration and distribution of population.

WHO multicentre study for the development of growth standards from fetal life to childhood: the fetal component.

PubMed

Merialdi, Mario; Widmer, Mariana; Gülmezoglu, Ahmet Metin; Abdel-Aleem, Hany; Bega, George; Benachi, Alexandra; Carroli, Guillermo; Cecatti, Jose Guilherme; Diemert, Anke; Gonzalez, Rogelio; Hecher, Kurt; Jensen, Lisa N; Johnsen, Synnøve L; Kiserud, Torvid; Kriplani, Alka; Lumbiganon, Pisake; Tabor, Ann; Talegawkar, Sameera A; Tshefu, Antoinette; Wojdyla, Daniel; Platt, Lawrence

2014-05-02

In 2006 WHO presented the infant and child growth charts suggested for universal application. However, major determinants for perinatal outcomes and postnatal growth are laid down during antenatal development. Accordingly, monitoring fetal growth in utero by ultrasonography is important both for clinical and scientific reasons. The currently used fetal growth references are derived mainly from North American and European population and may be inappropriate for international use, given possible variances in the growth rates of fetuses from different ethnic population groups. WHO has, therefore, made it a high priority to establish charts of optimal fetal growth that can be recommended worldwide. This is a multi-national study for the development of fetal growth standards for international application by assessing fetal growth in populations of different ethnic and geographic backgrounds. The study will select pregnant women of high-middle socioeconomic status with no obvious environmental constraints on growth (adequate nutritional status, non-smoking), and normal pregnancy history with no complications likely to affect fetal growth. The study will be conducted in centres from ten developing and industrialized countries: Argentina, Brazil, Democratic Republic of Congo, Denmark, Egypt, France, Germany, India, Norway, and Thailand. At each centre, 140 pregnant women will be recruited between 8 + 0 and 12 + 6 weeks of gestation. Subsequently, visits for fetal biometry will be scheduled at 14, 18, 24, 28, 32, 36, and 40 weeks (+/- 1 week) to be performed by trained ultrasonographers.The main outcome of the proposed study will be the development of fetal growth standards (either global or population specific) for international applications. The data from this study will be incorporated into obstetric practice and national health policies at country level in coordination with the activities presently conducted by WHO to implement the use of the Child Growth Standards.

Population causes and consequences of leading chronic diseases: a comparative analysis of prevailing explanations.

PubMed

Stuckler, David

2008-06-01

The mortality numbers and rates of chronic disease are rising faster in developing than in developed countries. This article compares prevailing explanations of population chronic disease trends with theoretical and empirical models of population chronic disease epidemiology and assesses some economic consequences of the growth of chronic diseases in developing countries based on the experiences of developed countries. Four decades of male mortality rates of cardiovascular and chronic noncommunicable diseases were regressed on changes in and levels of country income per capita, market integration, foreign direct investment, urbanization rates, and population aging in fifty-six countries for which comparative data were available. Neoclassical economic growth models were used to estimate the effect of the mortality rates of chronic noncommunicable diseases on economic growth in high-income OECD countries. Processes of economic growth, market integration, foreign direct investment, and urbanization were significant determinants of long-term changes in mortality rates of heart disease and chronic noncommunicable disease, and the observed relationships with these social and economic factors were roughly three times stronger than the relationships with the population's aging. In low-income countries, higher levels of country income per capita, population urbanization, foreign direct investment, and market integration were associated with greater mortality rates of heart disease and chronic noncommunicable disease, less increased or sometimes reduced rates in middle-income countries, and decreased rates in high-income countries. Each 10 percent increase in the working-age mortality rates of chronic noncommunicable disease decreased economic growth rates by close to a half percent. Macrosocial and macroeconomic forces are major determinants of population rises in chronic disease mortality, and some prevailing demographic explanations, such as population aging, are incomplete on methodological, empirical, and policy grounds. Rising chronic disease mortality rates will significantly reduce economic growth in developing countries and further widen the health and economic gap between the developed and developing world.

Population Causes and Consequences of Leading Chronic Diseases: A Comparative Analysis of Prevailing Explanations

PubMed Central

Stuckler, David

2008-01-01

Context The mortality numbers and rates of chronic disease are rising faster in developing than in developed countries. This article compares prevailing explanations of population chronic disease trends with theoretical and empirical models of population chronic disease epidemiology and assesses some economic consequences of the growth of chronic diseases in developing countries based on the experiences of developed countries. Methods Four decades of male mortality rates of cardiovascular and chronic noncommunicable diseases were regressed on changes in and levels of country income per capita, market integration, foreign direct investment, urbanization rates, and population aging in fifty-six countries for which comparative data were available. Neoclassical economic growth models were used to estimate the effect of the mortality rates of chronic noncommunicable diseases on economic growth in high-income OECD countries. Findings Processes of economic growth, market integration, foreign direct investment, and urbanization were significant determinants of long-term changes in mortality rates of heart disease and chronic noncommunicable disease, and the observed relationships with these social and economic factors were roughly three times stronger than the relationships with the population's aging. In low-income countries, higher levels of country income per capita, population urbanization, foreign direct investment, and market integration were associated with greater mortality rates of heart disease and chronic noncommunicable disease, less increased or sometimes reduced rates in middle-income countries, and decreased rates in high-income countries. Each 10 percent increase in the working-age mortality rates of chronic noncommunicable disease decreased economic growth rates by close to a half percent. Conclusions Macrosocial and macroeconomic forces are major determinants of population rises in chronic disease mortality, and some prevailing demographic explanations, such as population aging, are incomplete on methodological, empirical, and policy grounds. Rising chronic disease mortality rates will significantly reduce economic growth in developing countries and further widen the health and economic gap between the developed and developing world. PMID:18522614

Consequences of Rapid Population Growth: An Overview. World Bank Staff Working Papers No. 691 and Population and Development Series No. 16.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McNicoll, Geoffrey

A systematic discussion of the consequences of rapid population growth for economics and social systems examines growth resulting from mortality decline in the absence of comparable fertility decline. Growth resulting from net migration is also considered. The background and rationale for the study are supplied in a brief introduction. Part 2…

Learning-by-doing, population pressure, and the theory of demographic transition.

PubMed

Strulik, H

1997-01-01

The long-term effects of two interdependent relations between economic growth and population growth are discussed. The empirical work of Boserup (1981) was utilized, which focused on rural, sparsely populated economies with low income per capita. According to the formulation of the population-push hypothesis, learning-by-doing effects in production lead to increasing returns to scale and, therefore, to a positive correlation between economic and population growth. In accordance with the theory of demographic transition, the population growth rate initially increases with rising income levels and then declines. The approach originating from Cigno (1984) modified the economic model, which allowed the establishment of two different stable equilibria. Regarding this relationship, the existence and stability of low-income and high-income equilibrium was shown in a neoclassical growth model. Under plausible conditions a demo-economic transition from the first to the second steady-state took place. The instability of the Malthusian steady-state is also possible when a country develops along a path of economic growth which is compatible with the demographic transition. In this context, learning means the application of new techniques of agrarian production. In developed economies with a stable population the learning-or-doing decision lead to accumulation of human capital and the invention of new technologies and goods. The interdependence of income-determined population growth and learning-by-doing may serve as an explanation for the weak and partly controversial empirical support for an overall correlation between income and population growth. The result yielded a meaningful interpretation of the population-push hypothesis, which is consistent with the empirical findings on the correlation between economic and population growth.

Population pressures: threat to democracy.

PubMed

1992-06-01

The desire for political freedom and representative government is spreading throughout the world. The stability of democratic bodies is dependent on wise leaders, foreign aid, and slowing population growth. Rapid population growth strains political institutions and increases pressure on services. A Population Crisis Committee study found that only a few democratic countries with serious demographic pressures remained stable. The most stable countries were ones with lower levels of population pressure. Most of the 31 unstable countries were in Africa and in a band stretching from the Middle East to South Asia, and almost all had serious demographic pressures. Only 5 stable countries had high or very high demographic pressures. Since countries in the world are interdependent, population pressures have adverse consequences everywhere. Population pressures in the developing world are considered enhanced by the rapid growth of cities. Both the developed and the developing world face the problems of clogged highways, loss of wilderness, polluted lakes and streams, and stifling smog and acid rain conditions. The sociopolitical implications of demographic changes vary from country to country, but rapid growth and maldistribution of population strains existing political, social, and economic structures and relations between nations. Urban areas are the arena for clashes of cultures, competition for scarce housing and jobs, the breakdown of traditional family and social structures, and juxtapositions of extreme wealth next to extreme poverty. The growth of independent nation states since the 1940s has not allowed much time for development of effective political institutions. There are many obstacles to national unity and popular political participation. The potential for political instability is correlated with a number of factors: large youth populations in overcrowded cities with too high expectations and limited opportunities, diverse and intense ethnic and religious factors, and oppressive governments which violate human rights. Rapid growth has a harmful impact on the environment.

The demography of the Arab Republic of Egypt: population issues and policies.

PubMed

Holmberg, I

1981-01-01

The author examines some aspects of population growth in Egypt. Recent trends in fertility, mortality, urbanization, industrialization, regional development, and internal migation are described. The demographic and socioeconomic consequences of rapid population growth are considered, and the possibility of formulating government policies to alleviate problems associated with rapid growth is discussed

Economic consequences of population size, structure and growth.

PubMed

Lee, R

1983-01-01

There seems to be 4 major approaches to conceptualizing and modeling demographic influences on economic and social welfare. These approaches are combined in various ways to construct richer and more comprehensive models. The basic approaches are: demographic influences on household or family behavior; population growth and reproducible capital; population size and fixed factors; and population and advantages of scale. These 4 models emphasize the supply side effects of population. A few of the ways in which these theories have been combined are sketched. Neoclassical growth models often have been combined with age distributed populations of individuals (or households), assumed to pursue optimal life cycle consumption and saving. In some well known development models, neoclassical growth models for the modern sector are linked by labor markets and migration to fixed factor (land) models of the traditional (agricultural) sector. A whole series of macro simulation models for developed and developing countries was based on single sector neoclassical growth models with age distributed populations. Yet, typically the household level foundations of assumed age distribution effects were not worked out. Simon's (1977) simulation models are in a class by themselves, for they are the only models that attempt to incorporate all the kinds of effects discussed. The economic demography of the individual and family cycle, as it is affected by regimes of fertility, mortality, and nuptiality, taken as given, are considered. The examination touches on many of the purported consequences of aggregate population growth and age composition, since so many of these are based implicitly or explicitly on assertions about micro level behavior. Demographic influences on saving and consumption, on general labor supply and female labor supply, and on problems of youth and old age dependency frequently fall in this category. Finally, attention is focused specifically on macro economic issues in the consequences of population in both developed and developing countries. In general cross national studies have failed to provide rough and stylized depiction of the consequences of rapid population growth, unless the absence of significant results is itself the result.

Country Profiles. Japan.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Muramatsu, Minoru

This occasional paper on Japan is one of a series setting forth the nature, scope, and accomplishments of population activities in specified countries. Here, an overview is given of population characteristics and growth patterns, the relationship of population growth to socioeconomic development, and the history of population concerns and…

A summary analysis of the 3rd inquiry.

PubMed

1977-01-01

20 ESCAP member countries responded to the "Third Population Inquiry among Governments: Population policies in the context of development in 1976." The questionnaire sent to the member countries covered economic and social development and population growth, mortality, fertility and family formation, population distribution and internal migration, international migration, population data collection and research, training, and institutional arrangements for the formulation of population policies within development. Most of the governments in the ESCAP region that responded indicate that the present rate of population growth constrains their social and economic development. Among the governments that consider the present rate of population growth to constrain economic and social development, 13 countries regarded the most appropriate response to the constraint would include an adjustment of both socioeconomic and demographic factors. 11 of the governments regarded their present levels of average life expectancy at birth "acceptable" and 7 identified their levels as "unacceptable." Most of the governments who responded consider that, in general, their present level of fertility is too high and constrains family well-being. Internal migration and population distribution are coming to be seen as concerns for government population policy. The most popular approaches to distributing economic and social activities are rural development, urban and regional development and industrial dispersion. There was much less concern among the governments returning the questionnaire about the effect of international migration than internal migration on social and economic development.

On the relationship between population growth and social and economic development.

PubMed

Xu, D

1983-01-01

China's population has grown rapidly since 1949, reaching a size of 1,008,170,000 by 1982. Rapid population growth has been encouraged by a high birth rate coupled with low mortality, traditional preference for sons, and the incorrect assumption that man is only a producer and not a consumer. Rapid population growth directly decreases economic development while producing a rapidly increasing labor force requiring an increase in the number of jobs available. Population growth has already reduced arable land from 3 MN in 1949 to 1.5 MN at present and can also cause sanitation and pollution problems. Only by adopting family plnning and the 1 child family can China gradually slow population growth to correspond with economic development; then the state will be able to improve health care and education and, therefore, population quality. China's population policy is not one of NeoMalthusianism, which advocates birth control and late marriage, and assumes the existence of a capitalist system and does not apply to communist systems. Malthus may have attempted to absolve the nourgeoisie from all blame by aiming his preaching against blind reproduction at the poor; he thought that overpopulation would be reduced by pestilence, war, and famine. Protecting capitalism motivated Malthus and other capitalists, but the Chinese want to promote economic development. Marx has refuted Malthus' views on population. While Chinese population policy and NeoMalthusianism agree on advocating birth control and late marriage, their underlying philosophies are different. The author supports laws and policies on fertility and family planning, and feels that population scientists must be involved in all aspects--study, propaganda, and education--relating to family planning.

Population growth and sustainable development in China.

PubMed

Gui, S

1998-12-01

This article identifies the adverse impacts of population growth in China and offers suggestions for attaining sustainable development. Although China has below replacement level fertility, population will continue to increase. Chinese demographers project that the total fertility rate will average 2.1 each year until 2010, 2.1 until 2050, or 1.88 until 2010 and 1.6 during 2010-2050 under high, medium, and low variants, respectively. Total population would number 1.69 billion, 1.50 billion, or 1.46 billion under various projections, respectively, by 2050. Continued growth is expected to seriously slow economic development, to hinder improvements in the quality of and full use of human resources, to depress increases in per-capita economic development levels, and to impact on reasonable use of resources and environmental protection. The averting of 5 million births would save 35.5 billion yuan. Population growth has reduced the per-capita share of cultivated land from 0.19 to 0.08 hectares during 1952-95. There are about 150-190 million surplus rural laborers. Registered unemployment in cities was 3.1% in 1997. 11.5 million were laid-off workers. The working-age population will exceed 900 million during 2007-26. China's gross national product (GNP) was the 8th highest in the world in 1990, but its per-capita GNP was in 100th place. China's abundant natural resources are seriously reduced when population is considered. Environmental damage is already evident. Population growth needs to be controlled through family planning, an old-age social security program, and long-term population policies. Society needs healthier births and childbearing and better educated children.

[On some characteristics of the population development in the Shenzhen Special Economic Region].

PubMed

Zhang, Z; Yang, Q; An, H; Fang, D

1984-03-29

Shenzhen was originally a town in Guandong Province. In 1979, it was made into a Special Economic Region in order to cope with the needs of modernization. Because of rapid economic development, the population has also been growing rapidly. Before 1979, the total population of Shenzhen was only 20,000, both industry and agriculture were backward, and the living standard was low. After it was made a Special Economic Region, its population figure reached 200,000 according to a 1982 report. The age structure of the local population is young, and there are more males than females. In the last two years, because of family planning measures, the natural population growth rate has shown an obvious downward trend. The population development of Shenzhen has several characteristics: 1) the pace of population growth is very fast; 2) the educational level for the population is high, and investment in education is emphasized; 3) population mobility is strong, and it has an extensive impact on the local market, transportation, and social order; 4) the social and economic systems of Hong Kong have a special influence on its population development. Special studies and discussions concerning how to control Shenzhen's population growth, how to determine the trends toward change in age structure, and how to promote population quality and spiritual civilization should be conducted according to characteristics of the local population development.

Political economy of population growth.

PubMed

Mehta, S; Mehta, H S

1987-01-01

Tracing the origin of political economy as a class-science, this paper focuses on the political economy of population growth. Exposing the limitations of Malthusian ideas and their invalidity even for the capitalist economies, it discusses the subsequent revival of the Malthusian model during the period of de-colonization and the misinterpretation of the relationship between population growth and development in the developing and developed countries. Taking India, China, and Japan as some case studies, the paper examines the relationship between birth rate levels and some correlates. It elaborates on the Indian experience, emphasizing the association of population growth with poverty and unemployment and lays bare some of the hidden causes of these phenomena. The authors examine some interstate variations in India and identify constraints and prospects of the existing population policy. The paper proposes outlines of a democratic population policy as an integral part of India's development strategy which should recognize human beings not simply as consumers but also as producers of material values. It pleads for 1) restructuring of property relations; 2) bringing down the mortality rates and raising of the literacy levels, especially among females; and 3) improving nutritional levels, as prerequisites for bringing down birth rates.

Malaysia.

PubMed

1980-10-01

The official government policy in Malaysia is to reduce the rate of population growth through decreasing fertility levels and a program of economic and social restructuring. Population policy was conceived as encompassing wider dimensions than family planning, with emphasis on spatial distribution policies. The first Population and Housing Census was undertaken by the government in 1970. Regular decennial census taking occurred between 1891 and 1957. Birth and death registrations are considered incomplete. Population issues are integrated by various organizations into their ongoing programs such as those of the Ministries of Health, Education or Agriculture. The National Family Planning Board, an interministerial body in the Prime Minister's Department, has input from development planning units. A population studies group was established within the Economic Planning Unit. The total 1980 population was 13,640,000; the rate of population growth was 2.6 from 1975-80. Life expectancy was 61.3. Morbidity and mortality rates have dropped because of disease control and malnutrition reduction. 7.4% of the population are foreign born. Spatial distribution is to be adjusted through rural land development and resettlement; promotion of industrial development in low-income states; development of new growth centers and towns; and, urban development and renewal.

Geographic distribution of habitat, development, and population growth rates of the Asian citrus psyllid, Diaphorina citri, in Mexico.

PubMed

López-Collado, José; Isabel López-Arroyo, J; Robles-García, Pedro L; Márquez-Santos, Magdalena

2013-01-01

The Asian citrus psyllid, Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Hemiptera: Psyllidae), is an introduced pest in Mexico and a vector of huanglongbing, a lethal citrus disease. Estimations of the habitat distribution and population growth rates of D. citri are required to establish regional and areawide management strategies and can be used as a pest risk analysis tools. In this study, the habitat distribution of D. citri in Mexico was computed with MaxEnt, an inductive, machine-learning program that uses bioclimatic layers and point location data. Geographic distributions of development and population growth rates were determined by fitting a temperature-dependent, nonlinear model and projecting the rates over the target area, using the annual mean temperature as the predictor variable. The results showed that the most suitable regions for habitat of D. citri comprise the Gulf of Mexico states, Yucatán Peninsula, and areas scattered throughout the Pacific coastal states. Less suitable areas occurred in northern and central states. The most important predictor variables were related to temperature. Development and growth rates had a distribution wider than habitat, reaching some of the northern states of México. Habitat, development, and population growth rates were correlated to each other and with the citrus producing area. These relationships indicated that citrus producing states are within the most suitable regions for the occurrence, development, and population growth of D. citri, therefore increasing the risk of huanglongbing dispersion.

Geographic Distribution of Habitat, Development, and Population Growth Rates of the Asian Citrus Psyllid, Diaphorina citri, in Mexico

PubMed Central

López-Collado, José; Isabel López-Arroyo, J.; Robles-García, Pedro L.; Márquez-Santos, Magdalena

2013-01-01

The Asian citrus psyllid, Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Hemiptera: Psyllidae), is an introduced pest in Mexico and a vector of huanglongbing, a lethal citrus disease. Estimations of the habitat distribution and population growth rates of D. citri are required to establish regional and areawide management strategies and can be used as a pest risk analysis tools. In this study, the habitat distribution of D. citri in Mexico was computed with MaxEnt, an inductive, machine-learning program that uses bioclimatic layers and point location data. Geographic distributions of development and population growth rates were determined by fitting a temperature-dependent, nonlinear model and projecting the rates over the target area, using the annual mean temperature as the predictor variable. The results showed that the most suitable regions for habitat of D. citri comprise the Gulf of Mexico states, Yucatán Peninsula, and areas scattered throughout the Pacific coastal states. Less suitable areas occurred in northern and central states. The most important predictor variables were related to temperature. Development and growth rates had a distribution wider than habitat, reaching some of the northern states of México. Habitat, development, and population growth rates were correlated to each other and with the citrus producing area. These relationships indicated that citrus producing states are within the most suitable regions for the occurrence, development, and population growth of D. citri, therefore increasing the risk of huanglongbing dispersion. PMID:24735280

The third population boom and corresponding macro-policies.

PubMed

Tian, X

1990-01-01

China's birth peak between 1962-1973, and the expected 3rd peak beginning in 1986 has and will create a need for better, stable family planning measures; economic planning between 1990 and 2020 needs to accommodate the working population which in 2010 is expected to be 71.4% of the population (956 million); and a macro-strategic policy needs to be developed of the elderly who may constitute 17.44% of the population. The aging trend in China's working age population is expected to rise so rapidly that in 48 years, between 1982 and 2040, the over 65 population will quadruple ( a process in developed countries usually taking 80 years), thus creating a significant impact on a society with a low level of economic development. It is suggested that along with the growth in the national economy should come a state-provided welfare and retirement system, with reforms necessary to generate the additional income for elderly support; it is important that the cultural pattern of family care of the elderly remain intact. Assisting the able elderly in earning income in the service sector is encouraged. China's population has historically undergone 2 peak growth periods, between 1685 and 1830 with a 1% growth rate and between 1949-89 with an annual growth rate of 1.8%. The 2nd period is marked by 2 smaller peaks, one between 1953- 1957 with a growth rate of 2.38% and 1962-73 with a growth rate of 2.56%. A decline after 1974 changed to another upward cycle in 1986 with an increase to a 1.43 % growth rate expected to continue to 1996. The 1st peak between 1953-57 has already affected population control and the job market, and the fecund population is of concern because of the absolute size of the population, and because the planned limit for population growth of 1.2 billion by the year 2000 may be exceeded; and the projected rates, which have been increasing as expected, mean a population of 1.5 billion by 2050.

Nigerian population growth and its implications for economic development.

PubMed

Okpala, A O

1990-12-01

The population of Nigeria is growing at a rate of 3.75%/year indicating a doubling of the population every 22 years. Demographers estimated the population to be 91,178,000 in 1985. Even though population density is high (288 people/square mile), it is not equally distributed. It is highest in the south and southwest urban areas such as Lagos (1045 people/square mile) and lowest in the northeast (75 people/square mile). Moreover rural-urban migration is growing. A major reason for rural-urban migration is the dual nature of the economy in Nigeria. In urban areas, economic development brings about higher standards of living, but, in rural areas, a subsistence economy predominates. This coupled with rapid population growth results in small or no growth in per capita income. Only if the government were to integrate redistribution policies into complete economic development plans should it consider redistributing the population. It should stress rural development (e.g., incentives for firms to set up in rural areas). Further it should move some government offices to rural areas. The government also needs to adopt population policies encouraging the lowering of fertility levels. If it were to provide education through the secondary and prevocational education level free of charge, educated women will lower their fertility. Sex education should be included in the curriculum. Further the government must play an active role in family planning programs, especially educating rural women about family planning. It should also use the mass media to promote small family size, but it should not dictate family size. It also needs to recognize that population growth puts much pressure on the environment. For example, population growth causes soil erosion, nutrient exhaustion, rapid deforestation, and other problems which render the land unusable for agriculture.

Population growth and development of the psocid Liposcelis brunnea (Psocoptera: Liposcelididae) at constant temperatures and relative humidities.

PubMed

Opit, G P; Throne, J E

2009-06-01

We studied the effects of temperature and relative humidity on population growth and development of the psocid Liposcelis brunnea Motschulsky. L. brunnea did not survive at 43% RH, but populations increased from 22.5 to 32.5 degrees C and 55-75% RH. Interestingly, we found population growth was higher at 63% RH than at 75% RH, and the greatest population growth was recorded at 32.5 degrees C and 63% RH. At 35 degrees C, L. brunnea nymphal survivorship was 33%, and populations declined or barely grew. L. brunnea males have two to four nymphal instars, and the percentages of males with two, three, and four instars were 13, 82, and 5%, respectively. Female L. brunnea have three to five instars, and the percentages of females with three, four, and five instars were 18, 78, and 4%, respectively. The life cycle was shorter for males than females. We developed temperature-dependent development equations for male and female eggs, individual nymphal, combined nymphal, and combined immature stages and nymphal survivorship. The ability of L. brunnea to multiply rather rapidly at 55% RH may allow it to thrive under conditions of low relative humidity where other Liposcelis species may not. These data give us a better understanding of L. brunnea population dynamics and can be used to help develop effective management strategies for this psocid.

[A tentative discussion on population control in Hangzhou and direction of its development].

PubMed

Gu, Y

1982-07-29

Hangzhou is a city noted for its scenic beauty. In recent years, developments in industrial and agricultural production, cultural and educational improvements, and various constructions have made Hangzhou a more modernized city, and its population growth has become more rapid. According to one estimate, the number of childbearing women in 1987 will increase by 61% over the 1978 figure. With the mechanic (mobility) growth rate being higher than the natural growth rate, a large population is moving into Hangzhou each year, and the problem of overpopulation is becoming increasingly serious. The supply of newly built residences cannot match the demand, and the living standard is declining. Cultural and educational establishments, health care, and public facilities are unable to catch up with the speed of the population growth. Problems such as unemployment, traffic congestion, and environmental pollution are becoming more serious. In order to cope with the overall situation, the natural growth rate of the urban population should be controlled, and every married couple should be urged to have only 1 child. Satellite cities should be established and developed to match the city's economic development. Another necessary step is the redistribution of existing factories and industries inside the city and of the city's population so as to reduce pollution and noise. The increased labor population should receive better care in order to increase their productivity. Work in gardening and services should be encouraged in order to ease the pressure of unemployment and increase the tourist income.

The effect of economic development on population health: a review of the empirical evidence.

PubMed

Lange, Simon; Vollmer, Sebastian

2017-01-01

Economic growth is considered an important determinant of population health. Relevant studies investigating the effect of economic growth on health outcomes were identified from Google Scholar and PubMed searches in economics and medical journals. Additional resources generated through economic growth are potentially useful for improving population health. The empirical evidence on the aggregate effect of economic growth on population health is rather mixed and inconclusive. The causal pathways from economic growth to population health are crucial and failure or success in completing the pathways explains differences in empirical findings. Future research should investigate how additional resources can more effectively reach those in need and how additional resources can be used more efficiently. It is particularly relevant to understand why preventive health care in developing countries is very price elastic whereas curative health care is very health inelastic and how this understanding can inform public health policy. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Population Growth Rate: Teaching Guide. Measures of Progress Poster Kit Number 2.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

World Bank, Washington, DC.

This teaching guide accompanies the Population Growth Rate poster kit which is designed to teach students about population growth differences between rich and poor nations and about what people in developing countries are doing to help improve their quality of life. The guide is designed for use with: (1) a poster map of the world providing social…

Gridded population projections for the coastal zone under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merkens, Jan-Ludolf; Reimann, Lena; Hinkel, Jochen; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.

2016-10-01

Existing quantifications of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) used for climate impact assessment do not account for subnational population dynamics such as coastward-migration that can be critical for coastal impact assessment. This paper extends the SSPs by developing spatial projections of global coastal population distribution for the five basic SSPs. Based on a series of coastal migration drivers we develop coastal narratives for each SSP. These narratives account for differences in coastal and inland population developments in urban and rural areas. To spatially distribute population, we use the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) national population and urbanisation projections and employ country-specific growth rates, which differ for coastal and inland as well as for urban and rural regions, to project coastal population for each SSP. These rates are derived from spatial analysis of historical population data and adjusted for each SSP based on the coastal narratives. Our results show that, compared to the year 2000 (638 million), the population living in the Low Elevated Coastal Zone (LECZ) increases by 58% to 71% until 2050 and exceeds one billion in all SSPs. By the end of the 21st century, global coastal population declines to 830-907 million in all SSPs except for SSP3, where coastal population growth continues and reaches 1.184 billion. Overall, the population living in the LECZ is higher by 85 to 239 million compared to the original IIASA projections. Asia expects the highest absolute growth (238-303 million), Africa the highest relative growth (153% to 218%). Our results highlight regions where high coastal population growth is expected and will therefore face an increased exposure to coastal flooding.

The interaction of energy, population and sustainable development

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mills, J.I.; Herring, J.S.

1995-12-31

The relationships among, energy, population growth, and sustainable economic development will be of critical importance during the next half century. In previous papers, the authors have modeled the interactions among energy, population and economic development. These studies have shown that the increased availability of economic alternatives, improved health conditions, and sustainable energy supplies have a direct interaction with the rate of population growth. Conversely, their studies and others have shown that poverty, poor health conditions, and the lack of economic alternatives contribute to a vicious cycle in which rapid population growth continues, poverty prevails, and health conditions deteriorate further. Reducingmore » population growth to a sustainable steady state value is, in part, a product of the improved health and living conditions brought on by a well-considered industrialization. Improving the availability and reliability of the electric supply is an integral part of that industrialization. Free trade zones surrounding major ports are becoming a major vehicle for development and gateways to the global economy. By providing the needed electricity to power these enterprise zones, US technology could furnish a vital link in development. Many current projects for providing power to preindustrial countries involve the construction of large, centralized projects. The construction of conventional fossil and nuclear plants requires that the developing countries first develop an infrastructure for both the construction and operation of such plants. Both hydro and steam plants require significant capital investment, either by the host country or by outside development agencies, before the first kilowatt-hour is delivered.« less

Nematode and grape rootstock interactions including an improved understanding of tolerance.

PubMed

McKenry, M V; Anwar, Safdar A

2006-09-01

Sixteen cultivars of grape were screened over a two-year period in the presence or absence of 10 different nematode populations. Populations of Meloidogyne spp., Xiphinema index, and Mesocriconema xenoplax developed more rapidly and caused greater damage than populations of X. americanum and Tylenchulus semipenetrans. Populations of mixed Meloidogyne spp. having a history of feeding on grape were among the fastest developing populations. Tolerance to nematode parasitism appeared to be based on different mechanisms. Slow developing, less pathogenic nematode populations often stimulated vine growth, thus vines appeared to possess tolerance. Likewise, cultivars selected for nematode resistance often stimulated vine growth when fed upon by the nematode. However, tolerance sources that resulted from nematode resistance are vulnerable due to the occurrence of populations that break resistance mechanisms. Growth of cultivars with phylloxera (Daktalospharia vitifoliae) resistance was unchanged by the presence of nematodes, indicating that phylloxera resistance may provide a useful source of nematode relief. These and several additional sources of specific tolerance are discussed.

Nematode and Grape Rootstock Interactions Including an Improved Understanding of Tolerance

PubMed Central

McKenry, M.V.; Anwar, Safdar A.

2006-01-01

Sixteen cultivars of grape were screened over a two-year period in the presence or absence of 10 different nematode populations. Populations of Meloidogyne spp., Xiphinema index, and Mesocriconema xenoplax developed more rapidly and caused greater damage than populations of X. americanum and Tylenchulus semipenetrans. Populations of mixed Meloidogyne spp. having a history of feeding on grape were among the fastest developing populations. Tolerance to nematode parasitism appeared to be based on different mechanisms. Slow developing, less pathogenic nematode populations often stimulated vine growth, thus vines appeared to possess tolerance. Likewise, cultivars selected for nematode resistance often stimulated vine growth when fed upon by the nematode. However, tolerance sources that resulted from nematode resistance are vulnerable due to the occurrence of populations that break resistance mechanisms. Growth of cultivars with phylloxera (Daktalospharia vitifoliae) resistance was unchanged by the presence of nematodes, indicating that phylloxera resistance may provide a useful source of nematode relief. These and several additional sources of specific tolerance are discussed. PMID:19259534

WHO multicentre study for the development of growth standards from fetal life to childhood: the fetal component

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background In 2006 WHO presented the infant and child growth charts suggested for universal application. However, major determinants for perinatal outcomes and postnatal growth are laid down during antenatal development. Accordingly, monitoring fetal growth in utero by ultrasonography is important both for clinical and scientific reasons. The currently used fetal growth references are derived mainly from North American and European population and may be inappropriate for international use, given possible variances in the growth rates of fetuses from different ethnic population groups. WHO has, therefore, made it a high priority to establish charts of optimal fetal growth that can be recommended worldwide. Methods This is a multi-national study for the development of fetal growth standards for international application by assessing fetal growth in populations of different ethnic and geographic backgrounds. The study will select pregnant women of high-middle socioeconomic status with no obvious environmental constraints on growth (adequate nutritional status, non-smoking), and normal pregnancy history with no complications likely to affect fetal growth. The study will be conducted in centres from ten developing and industrialized countries: Argentina, Brazil, Democratic Republic of Congo, Denmark, Egypt, France, Germany, India, Norway, and Thailand. At each centre, 140 pregnant women will be recruited between 8 + 0 and 12 + 6 weeks of gestation. Subsequently, visits for fetal biometry will be scheduled at 14, 18, 24, 28, 32, 36, and 40 weeks (+/− 1 week) to be performed by trained ultrasonographers. The main outcome of the proposed study will be the development of fetal growth standards (either global or population specific) for international applications. Discussion The data from this study will be incorporated into obstetric practice and national health policies at country level in coordination with the activities presently conducted by WHO to implement the use of the Child Growth Standards. PMID:24886101

Population increase, economic growth, educational inequality, and income distribution: some recent evidence.

PubMed

Ram, R

1984-04-01

The relationship between population increase, economic growth, education and income inequality was examined in a cross-section study based on data from 26 developing and 2 developed countries. As other studies have noted, high population growth is associated with a less equal income distribution. A 1 percentage point reduction in the rate of population growth tends to raise the income share of the poorest 80% in the less developed world by almost 5 percentage points and is associated with a 1.7 percentage point increase in the income share of the poorest 40%. The relationship between short-run income growth and equality, on the other hand, is strong and positive. Estimates suggest that a 1 percentage point increase in the short-run rate of growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) increases the income share of the bottom 80% by about 2 percentage points and that of the poorest 40% by almost 1 percentage point. Although higher mean schooling appears to be a mild equalizer, educational inequality does not appear to have an adverse effect on income distribution. Overall, these results challenge the widely held belief that there must be a growth-equity trade-off. Moreover, they suggest that the impact of educational inequality on income distribution may be different from that observed in earlier studies, implying a need for caution in using these earlier results as a basis for educational policy development.

Women and Population Growth: Choice beyond Childbearing. Worldwatch Paper 16.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Newland, Kathleen

The paper explores the relationship of women's childbearing attitudes to educational and work opportunities. Program administrators for family planning, educational programs, and national development efforts in developing countries must realize the importance of the social and cultural environment in designing programs to reduce population growth.…

Socio-Demographic Determinants of Economic Growth: Age-Structure, Preindustrial Heritage and Sociolinguistic Integration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crenshaw, Edward; Robison, Kristopher

2010-01-01

This study establishes a socio-demographic theory of international development derived from selected classical and contemporary sociological theories. Four hypotheses are tested: (1. population growth's effect on development depends on age-structure; (2. historic population density (used here as an indicator of preindustrial social complexity)…

Population, Resources, Environment: An Uncertain Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Repetto, Robert

1987-01-01

The links between population growth, resource use, and environmental quality are too complex to permit straightforward generalizations about causal relationships. However, rapid population growth has increased the number of poor people in developing countries, thus contributing to the degradation of the environment and the renewable resources of…

Growth curves and the international standard: How children's growth reflects challenging conditions in rural Timor-Leste.

PubMed

Spencer, Phoebe R; Sanders, Katherine A; Judge, Debra S

2018-02-01

Population-specific growth references are important in understanding local growth variation, especially in developing countries where child growth is poor and the need for effective health interventions is high. In this article, we use mixed longitudinal data to calculate the first growth curves for rural East Timorese children to identify where, during development, deviation from the international standards occurs. Over an eight-year period, 1,245 children from two ecologically distinct rural areas of Timor-Leste were measured a total of 4,904 times. We compared growth to the World Health Organization (WHO) standards using z-scores, and modeled height and weight velocity using the SuperImposition by Translation And Rotation (SITAR) method. Using the Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) method, we created the first growth curves for rural Timorese children for height, weight and body mass index (BMI). Relative to the WHO standards, children show early-life growth faltering, and stunting throughout childhood and adolescence. The median height and weight for this population tracks below the WHO fifth centile. Males have poorer growth than females in both z-BMI (p = .001) and z-height-for-age (p = .018) and, unlike females, continue to grow into adulthood. This is the most comprehensive investigation to date of rural Timorese children's growth, and the growth curves created may potentially be used to identify future secular trends in growth as the country develops. We show significant deviation from the international standard that becomes most pronounced at adolescence, similar to the growth of other Asian populations. Males and females show different growth responses to challenging conditions in this population. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Meteorological limits on the growth and development of screwworm populations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phinney, D. E.; Arp, G. K.

1978-01-01

A program to evaluate the use of remotely sensed data as an additional tool in existing and projected efforts to eradicate the screwworm began in 1973. Estimating weather conditions by use of remotely sensed data was part of the study. Next, the effect of weather on screwworm populations was modeled. A significant portion of the variation in screwworm population growth and development has been traced to weather-related parameters. This report deals with the salient points of the weather and the screwworm population interaction.

Genetic determinants of prepubertal and pubertal growth and development.

PubMed

Thomis, Martine A; Towne, Bradford

2006-12-01

This article surveys the current general understanding of genetic influences on within- and between-population variation in growth and development in the context of establishing an International Growth Standard for Preadolescent and Adolescent Children. Traditional genetic epidemiologic analysis methods are reviewed, and evidence from family studies for genetic effects on different measures of growth and development is then presented. Findings from linkage and association studies seeking to identify specific genomic locations and allelic variants of genes influencing variation in growth and maturation are then summarized. Special mention is made of the need to study the interactions between genes and environments. At present, specific genes and polymorphisms contributing to variation in growth and maturation are only beginning to be identified. Larger genetic epidemiologic studies are needed in different parts of the world to better explore population differences in gene frequencies and gene-environment interactions. As advances continue to be made in molecular and statistical genetic methods, the genetic architecture of complex processes, including those of growth and development, will become better elucidated. For now, it can only be concluded that although the fundamental genetic underpinnings of the growth and development of children worldwide are likely to be essentially the same, there are also likely to be differences between populations in the frequencies of allelic gene variants that influence growth and maturation and in the nature of gene-environment interactions. This does not necessarily preclude an international growth reference, but it does have important implications for the form that such a reference might ultimately take.

Making a stand: five centuries of population growth in colonizing populations of Pinus ponderosa.

PubMed

Lesser, Mark R; Jackson, Stephen T

2012-05-01

The processes underlying the development of new populations are important for understanding how species colonize new territory and form viable long-term populations. Life-history-mediated processes such as Allee effects and dispersal capability may interact with climate variability and site-specific factors to govern population success and failure over extended time frames. We studied four disjunct populations of ponderosa pine in the Bighorn Basin of north-central Wyoming to examine population growth spanning more than five centuries. The study populations are separated from continuous ponderosa pine forest by distances ranging from 15 to >100 km. Strong evidence indicates that the initial colonizing individuals are still present, yielding a nearly complete record of population history. All trees in each population were aged using dendroecological techniques. The populations were all founded between 1530 and 1655 cal yr CE. All show logistic growth patterns, with initial exponential growth followed by a slowing during the mid to late 20th century. Initial population growth was slower than expectations from a logistic regression model at all four populations, but increased during the mid-18th century. Initial lags in population growth may have been due to strong Allee effects. A combination of overcoming Allee effects and a transition to favorable climate conditions may have facilitated a mid-18th century pulse in population growth rate.

TOPICAL PROBLEMS: The phenomenological theory of world population growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kapitza, Sergei P.

1996-01-01

Of all global problems world population growth is the most significant. Demographic data describe this process in a concise and quantitative way in its past and present. Analysing this development it is possible by applying the concepts of systems analysis and synergetics, to work out a mathematical model for a phenomenological description of the global demographic process and to project its trends into the future. Assuming self-similarity as the dynamic principle of development, growth can be described practically over the whole of human history, assuming the growth rate to be proportional to the square of the number of people. The large parameter of the theory and the effective size of a coherent population group is of the order of 105 and the microscopic parameter of the phenomenology is the human lifespan. The demographic transition — a transition to a stabilised world population of some 14 billion in a foreseeable future — is a systemic singularity and is determined by the inherent pattern of growth of an open system, rather than by the lack of resources. The development of a quantitative nonlinear theory of the world population is of interest for interdisciplinary research in anthropology and demography, history and sociology, for population genetics and epidemiology, for studies in evolution of humankind and the origin of man. The model also provides insight into the stability of growth and the present predicament of humankind, and provides a setting for discussing the main global problems.

The World Summit for Social Development.

PubMed

1995-01-01

The three goals of the UN World Summit for Social Development are to attack poverty, build solidarity, and create jobs. Unprecedented population growth has led to recognition of the need for a new, people-centered vision of development to counter the mutually reinforcing threats posed to world stability by poverty, unemployment, and social disintegration. This population growth may result in an inability of humanity to adapt and create unrelenting pressure on the world's natural resources. It has become increasingly recognized that improvements in the status of women will be vital to ensuring the future of humanity. Giving women the ability to decide their family size will eliminate hundreds of thousands of maternal deaths each year and will slow population growth while it increases women's productivity and control over resources. As the industrialized nations engage in unsustainable patterns of production and consumption, the lowest-income countries are caught in a "poverty-population-environment spiral." Although population growth is gradually slowing, the population of the world could double by 2050, with 95% of the growth occurring in developing countries. Concern is also mounting over the increasing urbanization of the world as well as the fact that while the populations of poor countries are becoming larger and younger, the population of industrialized countries are becoming older and smaller. The new vision of sustainable development involves generating economic growth, distributing benefits equitably, and allowing the regeneration of the environment. Without such security, the world can not achieve peace. The symptoms of social discrimination include social exclusion, which affects 90% of the world's population; sex and racial discrimination, which lowers the quality of life and increases life-threatening risks for women, indigenous people, and Blacks; violence and abuse, reflected in fact that the US has the highest incidence of murder in the world, in the 200,000 street children in Brazil, in the 500,000 child prostitutes in Asia, and in violence against women world-wide; crime, which is increasing and is often drug-related; migration, which affects 1/115 people on earth; and conflict, which increasingly occurs within national borders and involves civilian casualties and which leads to military spending of approximately $800 billion a year.

[On the Cairo polemic: a comparative perspective].

PubMed

Vilar, D

1994-01-01

The International Conference on Population and Development held in Cairo in early September 1994 dealt with the subjects of sexuality and reproduction as well as the relationships of population growth, economic development, the environment, and population policies. The preceding conferences were held in Bucharest in 1974 and in Mexico City in 1984. At the 1974 conference a call for a new international order was voiced. China was in the midst of the Cultural Revolution and she rejected any suggestion of control of population growth, while the Vatican defended its traditional views against family planning and abortion. At the 1984 conference a number of developing countries already expressed the need for control of population growth in combination with the promotion of economic development. The US position under the Reagan Administration dismissed the idea that population growth presented a threat to stability and the environment, maintaining that economic growth would provide the solution. It also attacked the right to abortion and terminated its assistance to international family planning organizations. China introduced a new one-child family planning policy and this time she advocated the use of family planning. The 1994 Cairo Conference occurred in the wake of the end of the Cold War, the consolidation of the European Union, and the emergence of the threat of AIDS. It focused on the pivotal issue of the situation of women while emphasizing economic development. There was also progress in the final resolution compared to previous conferences: incorporation of the concepts of sexual and reproductive health, family planning, fertility regulation, safe motherhood, the elimination of unsafe abortion, the need for sex education, and the sexual health of young people. These items were forcefully opposed by the Vatican and Islamic fundamentalists. Nongovernmental organizations played a major role in preparing the final document, which stressed the interconnectedness of poverty and population growth.

Metropolitan migration and population growth in selected developing countries.

PubMed

1983-01-01

The purpose of this article is to estimate the components of metropolitan population growth in selected developing countries during 1960-1970 period. The study examines population growth in 26 cities: 5 are in Africa, 8 in Asia, and 13 in Latin America, using data from national census publications. These cities in general are the political capitals of their countries, but some additional large cities were selected in Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa. All cities, at the beginning of the 1960-1970 decade had over 500,000 population; Accra, the only exception, reached this population level during the 1960s. Some cities had over 4 million residents in 1970. Net migration contributed about 37% to total metropolitan population growth; the remainder of the growth is attributable to natural increase. Migration has a much stronger impact on metropolitan growth than suggested by the above figure: 1) Several metropolitan areas, for various reasons, are unlikely to receive many migrants; without those cities, the share of metropolitan growth from net migration is 44%. 2) Estimates of the natural increase of migrants after their arrival in the metropolitan areas, when added to migration itself, changes the total contribution of migration to 49% in some metropolitan areas. 3) Even where net migration contributes a smaller proportion to metropolitan growth than natural increase, the rates of net migration are generally high and should be viewed in the context of rapid metropolitan population growth from natural increase alone. Finally, the paper also compares the components of metropolitan growth with the components of growth in the remaining urban areas. The results show that the metropolitan areas, in general, grow faster than the remaining urban areas, and that this more rapid growth is mostly due to a higher rate of net migration. Given the significance of migration for metropolitan growth, further investigations of the effects of these migration streams, particularly with respect to in-migration and out-migration, would greatly benefit understanding of the detailed and interconnected process of population growth, migration, employment and social welfare of city residents.

The containment of world population growth.

PubMed

Caldwell, J C

1975-12-01

The world has reached the present position of unprecedentedly rapid population growth not by achieving uniquely high fertility but by bringing about extraordinarily low mortality. The high growth rate and the built-in momentum of the age structure are obstacles to achievement of an acceptable standard of living for most of the world's population. Although government population programs have the potential to curb this growth rate, this potential has not been realized, and such programs are too often perceived both by their administrators and the population concerned as an end in themselves rather than a means toward a better standard of living. It is in this latter perspective, and in the context of the total development process, that population programs should be implemented.

[Publicizing the fundamental state policy and strengthening population research].

PubMed

Zheng, G

1983-11-29

In June 1983, a conference on population research was held at Fudan University. A total of more than 40 papers were presented to the conference, and participating scholars vigorously discussed the theme of "controlling population quantity and improving population quality," a policy guideline recommended by Primer Zhao Ziyang. All participants at the conference agreed that China's population growth has reached a climax and that population growth, especially the growth in rural areas, should be put under immediate control. Ideological education is needed to develop family work. In addition, appropriate economic measures in national finance, taxation, material incentives, and business and trade should be taken and linked with national family planning policy. In the area of population quality, more action should be taken to improve birth quality and infant care. Early education for young children should also be emphasized to develop their virtue, wisdom, and physical health in a comprehensive way. Studies of population science should be encouraged, and studies of methodology in population science should be strengthened.

[A general review of the discussion at the Beijing International Symposium on Population and Development].

PubMed

Ren, Y

1985-03-29

A general review of papers and discussions at the Beijing International Symposium on Population and Development held December 10-14, 1984 is presented. Discussions on population and development included China's population change 1949-1982, impacts of economic change on Tianjin's population, the population factor in economic development policy-making, Japanese population and development, recent population development in Hungary, population and economy, comprehensive long-term population development in Russia, fertility rate change factors in China, Shanghai's population change, and population and economic development in Mian County, Shaanxi Province. Fertility rate changes were discussed, including multinational borderline value assumptions, recent trends in life span fertility rate in China, fertility rate in Jiangsu Province, fertility rate change in Zhejiang Province, and sterilization in Yangjiaping, Thailand. Population and employment discussions included the economic impact of world population change, the 1984 International Population Conference, changes in economically productive population and employment strategy, employed/unemployed populations in Guangdong Province, and the economic composition of China's population. Urbanization discussions covered population and development methodological problems, population growth and economic development in the Pacific region, surplus rural population transfer and economic development in China, urbanization analysis, trends and urban population distribution problems, and Laioning Province population development. Issues in migration, population distribution, and regional population included migration and development of the Great Northwest, internal migration to Beijing, Chinese population growth and economic development by major region, and current population changes of Chinese Tibetans. Under social problems of population, discussions included women's status, development and population change, Shanghai's aging trend, analysis of the aged population, analysis of educational quality in Anhui Province, and the retirement system in Chinese villages.

[On the relationship between population and means of subsistence].

PubMed

Li, J

1984-01-29

Population is the basis of all social activites and social production. Population growth and development must have a definite means of subsistence to meet its cultural and material needs. The larger the population of a country, the greater is its demand for consumer goods and, likewise, the yield of its means of subsistence should be greater. Population brings about the unification of production and consumption. Furthermore, the ratio of population to the means of subsistence must be maintained at an appropriate level. Population growth must be slower then the growth of the means of subsistence in order to ensure continuous economic expansion and population increase. However, there are some people, notably Malthus, who believe that the balance between population growth and the means of subsistence should be equal. It is crucial to note differences between Marxist and Malthusian points of view. The basic outlook on the nature of the relationship between population and the means of subsistence is different. For Malthusians, it is a matter of the number of people and the quantity of the means of subsistence. For Marxists, the relationship is a historically determined social relationship. For Malthusians, population development is the primary force behind social development, i.e., the imbalance between population and the means of subsistence stems from social ills. Marxists differ from this in believing that population cannot be divorced from material production. Malthusians believe that population surplus derives from a population increase that is greater than an increase in the means of subsistence. Marxists believe a population surplus is also an historically determined social relationship. The Malthusian outlook for the future of population and the means of subsistence is pessimistic, whereas the Marxian view embodies the optimism of revolution.

Geographic Mobility of Manpower in the USSR.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kossov, V. V.; Tatevosoc, R. V.

1984-01-01

The Soviet Union is experiencing substantial reduction in the growth of the working-age population, accompanied by a shift in the distribution of population growth. The government is using various means to encourage workers to move to the sparsely populated developing regions and away from the large cities. (SK)

Demography and You: Teacher Edition.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCrea, Lester C.; And Others

This teacher's guide is the grades 7-9 unit for population education developed for the Baltimore public schools. This mini-demography course covers various factors of population growth and change. The activities of the unit focus on seven major concepts: (1) demography provides information for understanding population growth, trends, and changes;…

[Food and population: study of three countries].

PubMed

1988-12-01

In 1985, despite a nearly 25% worldwide surplus of cereals, more than 700 million poor people had insufficient food and some 17 million children died of malnutrition or related causes. 16% of the developing world's population is undernourished. Rapid population growth is a major reason for the world's hunger. Large families exhaust the resources of many urban couples and rural couples with little land. Closely spaced pregnancies deplete the nutritional resources of the mother and lead to low birth weight babies and inadequate lactation. Population growth in already densely populated countries reduces the land available for each family, inevitably contributing to poverty and rural malnutrition. Unemployment and underemployment reach alarming proportions in the city, where the combination of high fertility rates and migration from the countryside have produced growth twice that of the world population as a whole. Few developing countries have been able to generate sufficient investment to create new jobs for all seeking them. Unstable governments attempt to pacify urban unrest by subsidizing food prices and concentrating social and economic investments in the cities, causing further deterioration in rural conditions. Today more than 60 countries have food deficits, although not all are suffering. India, Kenya, and Mexico are 3 countries that have had some success in balancing population growth and food production, but each still has undernourished population sectors because of economic policies that fail to provide sufficient help to their poor and because of implacable population growth. Ending malnutrition in the 3 countries will require reducing the cost of food for households and increasing their incomes, but both objectives are made more difficult by rapid population growth. As a result of the green revolution and other factors, food production in India has tripled since 1950, but population has almost doubled in the same years. With rapid population growth, per capita agricultural productivity increased much more slowly than production. Kenya has enjoyed impressive economic growth since independence, but its rate of population growth of 4.2%/year, the highest in the world, has meant that per capita income increases have been modest. Average nutritional status has declined in Kenya since 1968. The rate of population growth in Mexico has declined to 2.3-2.6%/year in 1986 from the 3.5% of 1974, but population growth will be rapid for decades to come because of the young age structure. Agricultural production has increased but has not kept pace with population growth. Kenya, India, and Mexico have the human and natural resources to make further economic gains in the coming decades. The difficulty of feeding their populations adequately will increase to the extent that they fail to curb their rapid population increase.

The state of world population and its implications for the US.

PubMed

Fornos, W

1987-07-01

Before the end of the century, annual world population growth is expected to exceed 90 million. Among the consequences of this rapid population growth--most of which will take place in developing countries-- are environmental degradation, urban deterioration, unemployment, hunger, resource depletion, and economic stagnation. Despite this alarming situation, the US Government has reduced appropriations for international population aid from US$290 million in 1985 to $200 million in 1988. In addition, the US has stopped funding the 2 organizations that have been most effective in providing family planning assistance to developing countries: the United Nations Fund for Population Activities and the International Planned Parenthood Federation. The US has adapted a policy that asserts that population is a neutral factor in development and promotes capitalism as a means of lowering fertility. However, experience in developing countries such as Thailand, China, and the Philippines that have undergone dramatic fertility declines attests that family planning efforts can result in economic growth. Over 80% of developing countries have established population control policies yet they will require substantial financial and technical aid from industrialized nations. It is ironic that the US has turned away from a commitment to helping poor countries to voluntarily reduce their high fertility rates at a time when such countries have accepted the necessity of such a goal. It is further ironic that the US expresses concern about the threat of revolution in areas such as Central America, yet fails to comprehend the social unrest and threats to global stability that will emerge as a result of continued population growth. At least a doubling--preferably a tripling--of US population assistance is needed.

Microstructure development in Kolmogorov, Johnson-Mehl, and Avrami nucleation and growth kinetics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pineda, Eloi; Crespo, Daniel

1999-08-01

A statistical model with the ability to evaluate the microstructure developed in nucleation and growth kinetics is built in the framework of the Kolmogorov, Johnson-Mehl, and Avrami theory. A populational approach is used to compute the observed grain-size distribution. The impingement process which delays grain growth is analyzed, and the effective growth rate of each population is estimated considering the previous grain history. The proposed model is integrated for a wide range of nucleation and growth protocols, including constant nucleation, pre-existing nuclei, and intermittent nucleation with interface or diffusion-controlled grain growth. The results are compared with Monte Carlo simulations, giving quantitative agreement even in cases where previous models fail.

[World population growth and the food supply].

PubMed

Huang, Y

1982-07-29

The general trend in the last several hundred years has been that the speed of growth in the food supply exceeds the speed of the population growth. For the time being, 2 major problems still exist. The 1st problem is that food production is still influenced by natural conditions. For example, abnormal weather conditions may cause regional food shortages. The 2nd problem is the imbalance of food consumption by the world population. This phenomenon exists between different social classes as well as between developed and developing countries. According to statistics released by the World Bank, 1 billion suffer from malnutrition today and most of them are in developing countries. In developed countries, about half of their increase in the food supply is for feed grains, and those countries follow the policy of reducing farm land for the purpose of maintaing stabl e grain prices. Up to the present time, grain prices have been unstable, and this has become a rather heavy economic burden for numerous developing countries. Many developing countries are trying to increase grain production by increasing their arable land and promoting their cultivating techniques. However, these countries are facing the problems of finding and adequate water supply, fertilizer, and pesticides. In addition, a rapid population growth in these countries has offset their endeavors in agriculture. In recent years, these counties have realized the necessity of birth control. The world population growth rate has decreased from 2% to about 1.7% in 1981. Birth control and an increase in the food supply will bring new hope to the world's problems of overpopulation and food supply.

[The Marxist outlook on population].

PubMed

Qin, R

1984-09-29

Marxist population theory and world population are discussed. From his study of capitalist population theory Marx concluded, "In capitalist reproduction, poverty produces population," thus rejecting Malthusian population determinism theory and developing economic determinism. According to UN statistics, world population has stabilized since the middle of this century after having doubled every hundred years for the last 300; population in the developed countries showed a positive decrease and average net population growth of the developing countries also decreased. The premise of this paper is that population grows according to social economy development. During the last several hundred years, world wealth increased much faster than population; in the last 200 years alone, the population has increased fivefold, but wealth fortyfold. In addition, world population analysis reveals an inverse relationship between wealth and population in the developed and developing countries: the poorer the country, the greater the population. From this perspective, the study of population must begin with surplus labor. Accumulation of surplus production is the foundation of continuous social development and the basis for population growth. The major difference in methods between capitalist countries and China is that the capitalist-planned fertility affects the individual family while Chinese-planned fertility has the whole nation in mind. Human fertility is determined by the economic system. Private ownership determines the private nature of fertility and public ownership determines the public nature of fertility. Thus population development is determined by the accumulation of social wealth.

Brazil.

PubMed

1983-07-01

Attention in this discussion of Brazil focuses: the history of the country's demographic situation; government's overall approach to population problems; population data systems and development planning; institutional arrangements for the integration of population within development planning; government's view of the importance of population policy in achieving development objectives; population size, growth, and natural increase; fertility; international migration; and spatial distribution. The population of Brazil grew from 17 million in 1900 to about 119 million in 1960, making it the most populous country in the world and 1 of the relatively few countries to have sustained rates of population growth of more than 2% for over a century. The government has not adopted an explicit policy to modify fertility or population growth. Initially this was because of its positive perception of the benefits of population growth and a large population size and, amore recently, because of Brazil's gradual transition to more moderate levels of fertility and population growth. Brazil's main sources of demographic data are its 9 censuses, conducted in 1982, 1890, 1900, 1920, 1940, 1950, 1960, 1970, and most recently in August 1980. A nationwide system of vital registration data are still lacking in many geographic areas, researchers have had to rely on indirect estimation techniques to derive estimates of past trends in fertility and mortality. Population policy has been regarded as a highly sensitive issue by Brazilian officials, and the government remains cautious in regard to population issues. Preliminary results of Brazil's 1980 census indicate a population of 119 million and an annual rate of population growth of 2.1%, continuing the downward trend that was first evident in 1976. The government considers levels and trends of population growth to be satisfactory, and morbidity and mortality to be unacceptable, partly because of a lack of success in reducing the incidence of certain infectious and parasitic diseases. Among the various programs that have been established to increase the coverage of health care services is the Program for Grass Roots Health and Sanitation Action in North-East Brazil. Brazil experienceed a substantial decline in fertility between 1970-80, with the crude birthrate falling by about 25% to below 30/1000 population. The government considers levels and trends of fertility to be satisfactory, both in relation to population growth and family well-being. Fertility control in Brazil has been essentially a private matter. Contraceptives are sold freely in pharmacies and have been widely used for decades by the middle and upper classes. Immigration ceased to be demographically significant about 1940. Brazil has never experienced large-scale emigration. The government considers both immigration and emigration to be not significant and satisfactory. Although the rate of aggregate population growth declined modestly after the 1960s, the rate of urbanization slowed down only very slightly. The government regards present patterns of spatial distribution to be inappropriate and to require substantial modification.

THE NEBRASKA ECONOMY--MANPOWER AND ECONOMIC GROWTH.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

WYKSTRA, RONALD A.

NEBRASKA'S POPULATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH WERE COMPARED WITH THAT OF THE NATION FROM 1910 UNTIL THE PRESENT, WITH SPECIFIC ATTENTION TO NEBRASKA'S ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN RECENT YEARS. PUBLISHED MATERIAL WAS THE SOURCE OF THE DATA. FROM 1900 TO 1960, NEBRASKA'S POPULATION GROWTH RATE WAS ONE-THIRD THE NATIONAL RATE. THE NET OUT-MIGRATION AVERAGED…

Contribution of population growth to per capita income and sectoral output growth in Japan, 1880-1970.

PubMed

Yamaguchi, M; Kennedy, G

1984-09-01

The authors measured the positive and negative contributions of population and labor force growth to the growth of per capita income and sectoral output in Japan in the 1880-1970 period. A 2-sector growth accounting model that treats population and labor growth as separate variables was used. 3 alternative methods were used: the Residual method, the Verdoorn method, and the factor augmenting rate method. The total contribution of population cum labor growth to per capita income growth tended to be negative in the 1880-1930 period and positive in the 1930-40 and 1950-70. Over the 1880-1970 period as a whole, population cum labor growth made a positive contribution to per capita income growth under the Residual method (0.35%/year), the factor augmenting rate method (0.29%/year), and the Verdoorn method (0.01%/year). In addition, population cum labor growth contributed positively to sectoral output growth. The average contribution to agricultural output growth ranged from 1.03% (Verdoorn) - 1.46%/year (factor augmenting rate), while the average contribution to nonagricultural output growth ranged from 1.22% (Verdoorn) - 1.60%/year (Residual). Although these results are dependent on the model used, the fact that all 3 methods yielded consistent results suggests that population cum labor growth did make a positive contribution to per capita income and sectoral output growth in Japan. These findings imply that in economies where the rate of technical change in agricultural and nonagricultural sectors exceeds population growth, policies that reduce agricultural elasticities may be preferable; on the other hand, policies that reduce agricultural elasticities are to be avoided in economies with low rates of technical change. Moreover, in the early stages of economic development, policies that increase agricultural income and price elasticities should be considered.

Projecting county-level populations under three future scenarios: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

Treesearch

Stanley J. Zarnoch; H. Ken Cordell; Carter J. Betz

2010-01-01

County-level population projections from 2010 to 2060 are developed under three national population growth scenarios for reporting in the 2010 Renewable Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment. These population growth scenarios are tied to global futures scenarios defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a program within the United Nations...

Bahrain.

PubMed

1980-03-01

Focus in this discussion of Bahrain is on the following: history of the country's demographic situation; the government's overall approach to population problems; statistical systems and development planning; institutional arrangements for the integration of population within development planning; the government's view of the importance of population policy in realizing development objectives; population size, growth, and natural increase; morbidity and mortality; fertility; international migration; and spatial distribution. During the last 4 decades, the population has almost quadrupled as indicated by subsequent censuses. The rates of growth during this period fluctuated around 3-4%, with the highest (4.3%) observed during 1970-1975 and the lowest (2.8%) between 1975 and 1980, according to the estimates of the UN Population Division. The government has no official, comprehensive population policy with specific demographic objectives, but the growing significance of demographic changes has stimulated a high level of awareness of population issues in government circles. The government's major concerns in regard to population are presently those issues related to the international migration situation, to the spatial distribution of the population, to economic and social restructuring, and to overall family welfare. Since 1941, 6 censuses have been conducted, and the most recent census was in 1981. Bahrain's vital registration system has continued to be less developed than its censuses. The country is at an initial stage of coordinating development planning at the central level. At present there are no formal arrangements for integration of population within development planning. A comprehensive population policy is yet to be articulated. The government increasingly recognizes interlinkages between economic expansion and demographic growth, particularly in regard to immigration and spatial distribution. The rate of natural increase remained at a relatively steady 33.3/1000 population in the 1960s. It declined in the early 1970s to about 28.5/1000. In the 1980s the rate of natural increase is expected to decline further. The government has generally perceived the rate of population growth and natural increase as satisfactory. The crude death rate declined from 13.8 deaths/1000 between 1960-1965 to 6.3 during 1975-1980. The crude birthrate declined from 47.0 during 1960-1965 to 34.4 during 1975-1980.

Gambling on growth.

PubMed

Feeney, A

1990-01-01

When the assumption is made that economic growth must be increased by 10% to accommodate population increases and to reduce poverty, the question is raised as to whether or not sustainable development is possible. The human population increased 3 times since 1900, and global economic activity has increased 7 times faster than population. Use of fossil fuels has increased by 30 times, and industrial production has increased by 50 times. The by-products of population growth and economic activity are loss of tropical rainforests; species extinction; desertification in Africa, India, and the US; toxic and radioactive pollution; and greenhouse warming and ozone depletion. The atmosphere's stability and human habitation is threatened. Sustainable development, as defined by the World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED) in "Our Common Future," is meeting present needs but not at the expense of future needs. Economic growth must proceed at different rates in different countries to close the gap between the rich and poor. Economic expansion has been criticized by the president of Negative Population Growth and the Environmental Defense Fund's coordinator of reform for the World Bank's environmental policies and Third World countries. US government response during the Reagan administration has been indifference, while support has come from the World Resources Institute, the Worldwatch Institute, the US National Wildlife Federation, and the Population Reference Bureau. Recent support has come from signers of the "G-7 Summit" and from IBM and the Dow Chemical Company. A few shared tenets are 1) that economic development is not sustainable, 2) environmental reforms are necessary to make development sustainable, 3) a trade-off is needed to increase Third World energy use, and 4) population must be stabilized. Many proposals have been offered including reducing population to 2 billion, or 40% of the current level. Reducing poverty globally is an environmentally sound policy. High tariffs and protectionism, debt payments, and International Monetary Fund structural adjustment programs have made the situation worse for the Third World. Many suggestions have been made to correct the poverty imbalance, including no growth or steady state economics.

Impact of biology knowledge on the conservation and management of large pelagic sharks.

PubMed

Yokoi, Hiroki; Ijima, Hirotaka; Ohshimo, Seiji; Yokawa, Kotaro

2017-09-06

Population growth rate, which depends on several biological parameters, is valuable information for the conservation and management of pelagic sharks, such as blue and shortfin mako sharks. However, reported biological parameters for estimating the population growth rates of these sharks differ by sex and display large variability. To estimate the appropriate population growth rate and clarify relationships between growth rate and relevant biological parameters, we developed a two-sex age-structured matrix population model and estimated the population growth rate using combinations of biological parameters. We addressed elasticity analysis and clarified the population growth rate sensitivity. For the blue shark, the estimated median population growth rate was 0.384 with a range of minimum and maximum values of 0.195-0.533, whereas those values of the shortfin mako shark were 0.102 and 0.007-0.318, respectively. The maturity age of male sharks had the largest impact for blue sharks, whereas that of female sharks had the largest impact for shortfin mako sharks. Hypotheses for the survival process of sharks also had a large impact on the population growth rate estimation. Both shark maturity age and survival rate were based on ageing validation data, indicating the importance of validating the quality of these data for the conservation and management of large pelagic sharks.

Ester Boserup's theory of agrarian change: a critical review.

PubMed

Grigg, D

1979-01-01

As discussions of the positive effect of population growth upon agricutural change have been less common than focus on the negative effects, Ester Boserup's book, "The Conditions of Agricultural Growth," and her subsequent work in which it is argued that population growth is the prime cause of agricultural change is of great importance. The objective of this essay is to review earlier attempts to relate the intensification of agriculture to population growth, to outline Boserup's theory, and to examine the criticisms which have been made of the theory. Boserup maintains that population growth is the cause rather than the result of agricultural change and that the principal change is the intensification of land use. The theory of agricultural development posed by Boserup is more subtle and complex than that of any of her predecessors. She sees population pressure as a major cause of change in land use, agricultural technology, land tenure systems, and settlement form. Boserup argues that population growth is independent of food supply and that population increase is a cause of changes in agriculture. The principal means of increasing agricultural output is intensification. Boserup's work has had a varied response from readers; other economists have been less than enthusiastic. It might seem as if the critics of Boserup's theory have left it in tatters. Her central argument, that intensification reduces labor productivity, remains unproven. There are few who would agree that an increase in the frequency of cropping is the only possible response to population pressure; the extensive margin can be extended, higher yielding crops adopted, and methods that increase yields introduced independently of increases in the frequency of cropping. Emigration or the control of numbers may relieve population pressure. Intensification can also take place without population pressure, under the stimulus of urban growth or the development of trade. It is difficult to accept that population pressure is the only cause or agrarian change or that the increased frequency of cropping is the only response to population pressure, yet the thesis is a fruitful interpretation of agrarian change. Assuming population growth as a change mechanism can lead to important new conclusions regarding the nature of agrarian change in western European history.

The Population Growth and Carrying Capacity in Semarang City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hariyanto; Hadi, Sudharto P.; Buchori, Imam

2018-02-01

Population growth and development of city activities take some lands to carry them. As a result, land use competition happens among persons, society or sector. Land necessity for settlement, industry, or sector has taken over farm land, therefore farm land has been converted intensively and massively. Chronologically, population growth will cause land necessity increase. Unproductive land, especially farm land will be converted. Furthermore, farm land conversion will cause carrying capacity change. Carrying capacity has certain bio capacity. With the population growth, it will increase resource consumption; on the other side, farm land conversion will decrease carrying capacity. The objective of the study is to know about the influence of population growth towards carrying capacity (bio capacity) in Semarang city. Land consumption per capita is indeed influenced by city population, the higher the population is, the lower the land consumption per capita. With the population growth, it will influence carrying capacity. Carrying capacity here is the ratio of area to population. Analytical descriptive method is applied in the study with all sub-districts in Semarang city as the analysis unit. Population here is sub-district area and population per sub-district in Semarang city. Population growth data period is from 2000 until 2015. Main variables of the study are area per sub-district, population, population growth, carrying capacity. Result of the study shows significant influence of carrying capacity decrease, especially some outskirts in Semarang city. This condition happens because the outskirts in Semarang city tend to have dense population growth. Range of carrying capacity in Semarang city is from 0,007 to 0,117 of 0 to 1. Almost all sub-districts in Semarang city show miserable condition, except Mijen and Tugu. The conclusion of the study is that population will decrease carrying capacity. Therefore, the government should control population growth by paying attention to its distribution.

The Philippines: country statement prepared for the International Conference on Population, Mexico City, August 1984.

PubMed

1985-03-01

This statement, prepared for the 1984 International Conference on Population, summarizes the demographic situation in the Philippines, the Philippine position regarding implementation of the World Population Plan of Action, and current population policies. In 1980, the population of the Philippines stood at 48.1 million. The country's current population growth rate reflects the interplay between decreasing mortality and still high but declining fertility. The 1984-87 Philippine Development Plan aims to achieve sustainable economic growth, equitable distribution of the gains of development, and personal development. A net reproduction rate of unity by the year 2000 is sought, and preschool-age children, youth, premarriage-age groups, and married couples of reproductive age have been targeted for special outreach efforts. The national population program will concentrate on developing a network of public and private community-based organizations, strengthening the capacity of local government and community organizations to plan and manage the population program, developing community capacity to finance family planning services, upgrading the quality of natural family planning practice, continuing the promotion of effective contraceptive methods, developing a population data bank, and upgrading the technical and management capabilities of population program personnel. Increasing attention is being paid to regional development and spatial distribution. The average annual population growth rate is expected to decline from 2.8% in 1970-75 to 2.2% by 1987. The crude birth rate is expected to drop from 34/1000 in 1980 to 31/1000 in 1987. To help achieve this goal, the contraceptive prevalence rate should increase from 34% in 1983 to 41% in 1987 and 50% by 1993. In addition, attempts will be made to reduce the proportion of women marrying below the age of 20 years and to improve women's access to educational and employment opportunities.

Socio-Economic Instability and the Scaling of Energy Use with Population Size

PubMed Central

DeLong, John P.; Burger, Oskar

2015-01-01

The size of the human population is relevant to the development of a sustainable world, yet the forces setting growth or declines in the human population are poorly understood. Generally, population growth rates depend on whether new individuals compete for the same energy (leading to Malthusian or density-dependent growth) or help to generate new energy (leading to exponential and super-exponential growth). It has been hypothesized that exponential and super-exponential growth in humans has resulted from carrying capacity, which is in part determined by energy availability, keeping pace with or exceeding the rate of population growth. We evaluated the relationship between energy use and population size for countries with long records of both and the world as a whole to assess whether energy yields are consistent with the idea of an increasing carrying capacity. We find that on average energy use has indeed kept pace with population size over long time periods. We also show, however, that the energy-population scaling exponent plummets during, and its temporal variability increases preceding, periods of social, political, technological, and environmental change. We suggest that efforts to increase the reliability of future energy yields may be essential for stabilizing both population growth and the global socio-economic system. PMID:26091499

Socio-Economic Instability and the Scaling of Energy Use with Population Size.

PubMed

DeLong, John P; Burger, Oskar

2015-01-01

The size of the human population is relevant to the development of a sustainable world, yet the forces setting growth or declines in the human population are poorly understood. Generally, population growth rates depend on whether new individuals compete for the same energy (leading to Malthusian or density-dependent growth) or help to generate new energy (leading to exponential and super-exponential growth). It has been hypothesized that exponential and super-exponential growth in humans has resulted from carrying capacity, which is in part determined by energy availability, keeping pace with or exceeding the rate of population growth. We evaluated the relationship between energy use and population size for countries with long records of both and the world as a whole to assess whether energy yields are consistent with the idea of an increasing carrying capacity. We find that on average energy use has indeed kept pace with population size over long time periods. We also show, however, that the energy-population scaling exponent plummets during, and its temporal variability increases preceding, periods of social, political, technological, and environmental change. We suggest that efforts to increase the reliability of future energy yields may be essential for stabilizing both population growth and the global socio-economic system.

Urbanization in 21st century.

PubMed

Altarejos, R G

1990-01-01

Due to a combination of rapid population growth and high levels of rural-urban migration, overcrowding will be common in many cities around the world in the 21st century. Currently at 5.3 billion, the global population is expected to increase to 6 billion by the year 2000, and to 9 billion by 2025. Experts predict that urban centers will bear the brunt of the population growth. Rural areas have seen declines in the standard of living, partly due to natural disasters, civil war, and economic policies favoring urban centers. In search of jobs, better access to education, and health services, rural populations will flock to cities. But the rapid growth of cities will inevitably lead to the creation of slums, which will hamper urban development. Urban demographers predict that by the end of the century, 1/2 of the world's population will be urban, and 1/5 of these people will be concentrated in "mega cities," populations of 4 million or more. International migration will play a significant role, as people cross borders in search of opportunity. But contrary to the traditional model of urban growth, much of it will take place in developing countries. According to a 1985 study, developed nations had an urbanization level of 71%, compared to 31% in developing countries. However, experts calculate that by 2025, these levels will practically even out, with an urbanization level of 74% for developing countries and 77% for developed countries. By 2025, 25 cities will have populations of over 9 million, including Mexico City (25.8), Sao Paulo (24.0), Tokyo (20.2), Calcutta (16.5), Greater Bombay (16.0), and New York (15.8).

Projected effects of climate and development on California wildfire emissions through 2100.

PubMed

Hurteau, Matthew D; Westerling, Anthony L; Wiedinmyer, Christine; Bryant, Benjamin P

2014-02-18

Changing climatic conditions are influencing large wildfire frequency, a globally widespread disturbance that affects both human and natural systems. Understanding how climate change, population growth, and development patterns will affect the area burned by and emissions from wildfires and how populations will in turn be exposed to emissions is critical for climate change adaptation and mitigation planning. We quantified the effects of a range of population growth and development patterns in California on emission projections from large wildfires under six future climate scenarios. Here we show that end-of-century wildfire emissions are projected to increase by 19-101% (median increase 56%) above the baseline period (1961-1990) in California for a medium-high temperature scenario, with the largest emissions increases concentrated in northern California. In contrast to other measures of wildfire impacts previously studied (e.g., structural loss), projected population growth and development patterns are unlikely to substantially influence the amount of projected statewide wildfire emissions. However, increases in wildfire emissions due to climate change may have detrimental impacts on air quality and, combined with a growing population, may result in increased population exposure to unhealthy air pollutants.

[Study of the growth and development of Chlorella on "Kosmos-1887"].

PubMed

Sychev, V N; Levinskikh, M A; Livanskaia, O G

1989-01-01

The growth, development and population characteristics of Chlorella cells flown for 13 days in space were investigated during their postflight cultivation. The growth rate of flown algae did not differ from that of ground-based controls in terms of increases in the cell number and biomass. All basic parameters of the specimens (generation time, number of developing autospores, time ratio of developmental phases) were ontogentically normal. Exposure of the algae to space flight as a component of the algobacterial cenosis--fish autotrophic-heterotrophic system produced no significant effect of the population or individual specimens during their postflight cultivation.

Population growth and economic development.

PubMed

Corbridge, S

1989-01-01

The Malthusian and neo-Malthusian approaches to the role of population growth in economic development and resource depletion are briefly outlined. Three arguments are then presented that emphasize demographic determinism, empirical evidence, and cause and effect. The author concludes that non-coercive family planning programs may have a role to play in countries that are unable to reduce inequalities, particularly for the poor and for women.

[State of the world population, 1986].

PubMed

1987-01-01

The majority of the world population will soon reside in urban areas. At present, over 40% of the world's people are urban, and 50% will be urban soon after the year 2000. The proportion urban in developed countries has exceeded 50% since the mid-20th century, and in developing countries this level will be reached in the 1st quarter of the next century. Developing countries in Asia and Africa have less than 30% of their population urban. While over 70% of Latin America's population is urban. Within the next 50 years, the predominantly rural character of the developing countries will disappear forever. Currently the majority of the world's urban population lives in developing countries. In 1970, 695 million urban dwellers were in developed countries vs. 666 million in developing countries, but by 1985, there were only 849 million urban dwellers in developed countries vs. 1164 million in developing countries. By the year 2025, there will be nearly 4 times as many urban dwellers in developing countries. An increasing proportion of the urban population will reside in the largest cities. Around 2025, almost 30% of the urban population in developing countries will live in cities of over 4 million. Around 2000 there will be 5 cities of 15 million or more, 3 of them in developing countries. The proportion of the 20 largest cities in developing countries will increase from 9 in 1970 to 16 in 2000. The close relationship between city size and economic development that existed until the recent past is disappearing. It is possible that the very largest cities will no longer be at the center of international political and economic networks. Many developing countries will have to develop plans for cities of sizes never imagined in the developed countries of today. High rates of population increase in the developing countries are an inseparable aspect of their urbanization. Growth of the urban population in developing countries will continue to be rapid until well into the 21st century. The world rate of urban growth will continue to be about 2.5%/year during the 1st quarter of sthe 21st century. The annual rate of urban growth is 3.5% in developing countries and is highest in Africa, especially West Africa where it reaches 6.5%/year. Despite migration to cities, the rural population in developing countries will continue to grow at a rate of about 1%/year through the end of the century. In many rural areas, population density is already very high, and continued growth will hamper efforts to reduce urban migration. In developing countries, the increase in the urban population is due more to natural increase than to migration.

A Role for M-Matrices in Modelling Population Growth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

James, Glyn; Rumchev, Ventsi

2006-01-01

Adopting a discrete-time cohort-type model to represent the dynamics of a population, the problem of achieving a desired total size of the population under a balanced growth (contraction) and the problem of maintaining the desired size, once achieved, are studied. Properties of positive-time systems and M-matrices are used to develop the results,…

Monitoring human growth and development: a continuum from the womb to the classroom.

PubMed

Villar, José; Papageorghiou, Aris T; Pang, Ruyan; Salomon, Laurent J; Langer, Ana; Victora, Cesar; Purwar, Manorama; Chumlea, Cameron; Qingqing, Wu; Scherjon, Sicco A; Barros, Fernando C; Carvalho, Maria; Altman, Douglas G; Giuliani, Francesca; Bertino, Enrico; Jaffer, Yasmin A; Cheikh Ismail, Leila; Ohuma, Eric O; Lambert, Ann; Noble, J Alison; Gravett, Michael G; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A; Kennedy, Stephen H

2015-10-01

A comprehensive set of fully integrated anthropometric measures is needed to evaluate human growth from conception to infancy so that consistent judgments can be made about the appropriateness of fetal and infant growth. At present, there are 2 barriers to this strategy. First, descriptive reference charts, which are derived from local, unselected samples with inadequate methods and poor characterization of their putatively healthy populations, commonly are used rather than prescriptive standards. The use of prescriptive standards is justified by the extensive biologic, genetic, and epidemiologic evidence that skeletal growth is similar from conception to childhood across geographic populations, when health, nutrition, environmental, and health care needs are met. Second, clinicians currently screen fetuses, newborn infants, and infants at all levels of care with a wide range of charts and cutoff points, often with limited appreciation of the underlying population or quality of the study that generated the charts. Adding to the confusion, infants are evaluated after birth with a single prescriptive tool: the World Health Organization Child Growth Standards, which were derived from healthy, breastfed newborn infants, infants, and young children from populations that have been exposed to few growth-restricting factors. The International Fetal and Newborn Growth Consortium for the 21st Century Project addressed these issues by providing international standards for gestational age estimation, first-trimester fetal size, fetal growth, newborn size for gestational age, and postnatal growth of preterm infants, all of which complement the World Health Organization Child Growth Standards conceptually, methodologically, and analytically. Hence, growth and development can now, for the first time, be monitored globally across the vital first 1000 days and all the way to 5 years of age. It is clear that an integrative approach to monitoring growth and development from pregnancy to school age is desirable, scientifically supported, and likely to improve care, referral patterns, and reporting systems. Such integration can be achieved only through the use of international growth standards, especially in increasingly diverse, mixed ancestry populations. Resistance to new scientific developments has been hugely problematic in medicine; however, we are confident that the obstetric and neonatal communities will join their pediatric colleagues worldwide in the adoption of this integrative strategy. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An analysis of social consequences of rapid fertility decline in China.

PubMed

Liu, Z; Liu, L

1988-12-01

Rapid fertility decline in China has brought about 2 direct effects: 1) the natural increase of the population has slowed down, and 2) the age structure has changed from the young to the adult type. These 2 effects have caused a series of economic and social consequences. Rapid fertility decline increases the gross national product per capita and accelerates the improvement of people's lives. Rapid fertility decline slows population growth and speeds up the accumulation of capital and the development of the economy. Since 1981, accumulation growth has exceeded consumption growth. Fertility decline alleviates the enrollment pressure on primary and secondary schools, raises the efficiency of education funds, and promotes the popularization of education. The family planning program strengthens the maternal and child health care and the medical care systems. As the result of economic development, the people's nutritional levels are improving. The physical quality of teenagers has improved steadily. The change in the age structure will alleviate the tension of rapid population growth and benefit population control in the next century. Fertility decline forces the traditional attitude toward childbearing from "more children, more happiness" to improved quality of children. The rapid fertility decline has caused a great deal of concern both inside and outside China about the aging of the population. The labor force, however, will continue to grow for the next 60 years. At present, China's population problems are still those of population growth.

Venezuela.

PubMed

1982-02-01

This discussion of Venezuela reviews the following: the history of the country's demographic situation; the government's overall approach to population problems; statistical systems and development planning; institutional arrangements for the integration of population within development planning; the government's view of the importance of population policy in realizing development objectives; population size, growth, and natural increase; morbidity and mortality; fertility; international migration; and spatial distribution. Over the 1920-1961 period Venezuela's level of fertility was high and continued to rise gradually. The crude birth rate was around 40.0/1000 population in 1920, 44.0/1000 in 1950, and 45.0/1000 in 1961, and thereafter began to decline, dropping to a level of 38.4/1000 by 1971. During the same period, mortality underwent a steady decline, with the crude death rate falling from 30.0/1000 population in 1920 to 13.7 in 1950, 7.4 in 1961, and to 6.6 by 1971. Venezuela's government has no policy of intervention to modify fertility or population growth but has relied primarily on the benefits of rapid economic growth to achieve a rate of demographic growth that is compatible with its development objectives. Since 1920, 7 modern censuses have been conducted. The most recent census was in 1971. The registration data are classified as incomplete. Multiround sample household surveys were conducted in 1976-1977 and 1978. The government has not established a special unit for population policies. It assigned this function to the Central Planning Agency in 1975. The government has not announced a comprehensive population policy, but it has been moving in the direction of formulating more comprehensive policies in 2 areas of concern--international migration and spatial distribution. The government considers the current rate of population growth to be satisfactory despite the fact that it is rather high by Latin American standards. The government also considers levels and trends of mortality to be acceptable, given current economic and social circumstances. The government currently considers levels and trends of immigration to be significant and unsatisfactory because they are too high. The country is now more than 75% urban. The government considers the distribution of population within the national territory to be inappropriate and to require substantial modification.

Population dynamics and climate change: what are the links?

PubMed

Stephenson, Judith; Newman, Karen; Mayhew, Susannah

2010-06-01

Climate change has been described as the biggest global health threat of the 21(st) century. World population is projected to reach 9.1 billion by 2050, with most of this growth in developing countries. While the principal cause of climate change is high consumption in the developed countries, its impact will be greatest on people in the developing world. Climate change and population can be linked through adaptation (reducing vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change) and, more controversially, through mitigation (reducing the greenhouse gases that cause climate change). The contribution of low-income, high-fertility countries to global carbon emissions has been negligible to date, but is increasing with the economic development that they need to reduce poverty. Rapid population growth endangers human development, provision of basic services and poverty eradication and weakens the capacity of poor communities to adapt to climate change. Significant mass migration is likely to occur in response to climate change and should be regarded as a legitimate response to the effects of climate change. Linking population dynamics with climate change is a sensitive issue, but family planning programmes that respect and protect human rights can bring a remarkable range of benefits. Population dynamics have not been integrated systematically into climate change science. The contribution of population growth, migration, urbanization, ageing and household composition to mitigation and adaptation programmes needs urgent investigation.

Population Trends and Prospects.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mauldin, W. Parker

1980-01-01

Future trends in population are described as they relate to developed and developing nations. It is suggested that for the next 20 years there will be a decrease in population growth rates for all areas of the world except Africa. (Author/SA)

Population growth, economic security, and cultural change in wilderness counties

Treesearch

Paul A. Lorah

2000-01-01

A familiar version of the “jobs versus the environment” argument asserts that wilderness areas limit economic growth by locking up potentially productive natural resources. Analysis of the development paths of rural Western counties shows that this is unlikely: the presence of Wilderness is correlated with income, employment and population growth. Similarly, Wilderness...

Spotlight: Malaysia.

PubMed

Patriquin, W

1988-03-01

Focus is on Malaysia -- its population and land area, its total fertility rate and mortality rate, economic development, contraceptive usage, and population policy. In 1987 Malaysia's population was estimated to be 16.1 million with births 31/1000 population and deaths 7/1000 population. The rate of natural increase is 2.4%, the total fertility rate 3.9 children/woman, and the infant mortality rate 30/1000 live births. Ethnically, Malaysia is made up of several distinct groups. Indigenous Malays are the most numerous -- about 50% of the population. Their unique characteristics include that they are Moslem, rural, and usually of lower economic status. Chinese make up the 2nd largest group of Malaysians, nearly 1/3 of the population. This group is active in trade, business, and finance and possesses considerable economic power. About 10% of the population is of Indian descent. Malaysia has experienced much economic growth. Traditional exports grew in volume and value during the 1970; the petroleum sector expanded so rapidly it accounts for 1/4 of all exports. One reason for Malaysia's rapid economic growth is the government's promotion of industrialization and foreign investment. According to the 1982 contraceptive prevalence survey, 42% of currently married women 15-44 years were using contraception. The government considers the current rate of national increase to be satisfactory, but in 1984 it adopted a population policy to more than quadruple its population in 2100 to 70 million. It intends to accomplish this by instituting pronatalist incentives to help the fall in the national growth rate. The government's rationale for more population growth is that a larger domestic population could better support industrial growth that otherwise might be stymied by "protectionist policies practiced by developed countries." Incentives to encourage fertility include income-tax deductions and maternity benefits for women who have up to 5 children.

Selecting Populations for Non-Analogous Climate Conditions Using Universal Response Functions: The Case of Douglas-Fir in Central Europe.

PubMed

Chakraborty, Debojyoti; Wang, Tongli; Andre, Konrad; Konnert, Monika; Lexer, Manfred J; Matulla, Christoph; Schueler, Silvio

2015-01-01

Identifying populations within tree species potentially adapted to future climatic conditions is an important requirement for reforestation and assisted migration programmes. Such populations can be identified either by empirical response functions based on correlations of quantitative traits with climate variables or by climate envelope models that compare the climate of seed sources and potential growing areas. In the present study, we analyzed the intraspecific variation in climate growth response of Douglas-fir planted within the non-analogous climate conditions of Central and continental Europe. With data from 50 common garden trials, we developed Universal Response Functions (URF) for tree height and mean basal area and compared the growth performance of the selected best performing populations with that of populations identified through a climate envelope approach. Climate variables of the trial location were found to be stronger predictors of growth performance than climate variables of the population origin. Although the precipitation regime of the population sources varied strongly none of the precipitation related climate variables of population origin was found to be significant within the models. Overall, the URFs explained more than 88% of variation in growth performance. Populations identified by the URF models originate from western Cascades and coastal areas of Washington and Oregon and show significantly higher growth performance than populations identified by the climate envelope approach under both current and climate change scenarios. The URFs predict decreasing growth performance at low and middle elevations of the case study area, but increasing growth performance on high elevation sites. Our analysis suggests that population recommendations based on empirical approaches should be preferred and population selections by climate envelope models without considering climatic constrains of growth performance should be carefully appraised before transferring populations to planting locations with novel or dissimilar climate.

World health, populations, sanitation and resources. Part 1.

PubMed

Humphries, S V

1981-07-01

This paper discusses 5 crises that are confronted by mankind: 1) population pressure, 2) the environment, 3) food, 4) energy, and 5) raw materials. Developing countries are those with rapid population growth rates while developed countries have slow growth rates. Sweden, Austria, East and West Germany, and Luxemburg were the only 5 countries with zero population growth in 1980. Other developed countries such as Canada and the USA double in population every 88 and 99 years, respectively. In contrast, developing countries such as Kenya, Zimbabwe, Zambia, and South Africa double every 18, 21, 22, and 25 years respectively. Such population increases cause problems in the environment, transportation, education, crime, and riots. The level of foreign aid for food to developing countries needs to increase or else the economic gap between rich and poor nations will increase on an average from 5:1 to 8:1 in Latin America and to 20:1 in South Asia. Availability of food has increaseed in developed countries whereas in developing countries it has dropped. Use of tropical forest lands as well as the sea bed for a source of food is difficult. There ia an upper limit to the fresh water runoff from land areas of the earth and fresh water is non-renewable. There is also a scarcity of other non-renewable resources, including at least 20 minerals. Finally, the standard of living in prosperous countries must be lowered at the same time as raising it in developing countries.

The INTERGROWTH-21st fetal growth standards: toward the global integration of pregnancy and pediatric care.

PubMed

Papageorghiou, Aris T; Kennedy, Stephen H; Salomon, Laurent J; Altman, Douglas G; Ohuma, Eric O; Stones, William; Gravett, Michael G; Barros, Fernando C; Victora, Cesar; Purwar, Manorama; Jaffer, Yasmin; Noble, Julia A; Bertino, Enrico; Pang, Ruyan; Cheikh Ismail, Leila; Lambert, Ann; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A; Villar, José

2018-02-01

The purpose of the INTERGROWTH-21 st project was to develop international, prescriptive standards for fetal growth assessed by ultrasound and fundal height, preterm postnatal growth, newborn size and body composition, maternal weight gain, and infant development at the age of 2 years. Hence, we have produced, based on World Health Organization recommendations, the first comprehensive set of international standards of optimal fetal and newborn growth that perfectly match the existing World Health Organization child growth standards. Uniquely, the same population was followed up longitudinally from 9 weeks of fetal life to 2 years of age, with growth, health, and nutritional status assessment at 2 years supporting the appropriateness of the population for construction of growth standards. The resulting package of clinical tools allows, for the first time, growth and development to be monitored from early pregnancy to infancy. The INTERGROWTH-21 st fetal growth standards, which are based on observing >4500 healthy pregnancies, nested in a study of >59,000 pregnancies from populations with low rates of adverse perinatal outcomes, show how fetuses should grow-rather than the more limited objective of past references, which describe how they have grown at specific times and locations. Our work has confirmed the fundamental biological principle that variation in human growth across different populations is mostly dependent on environmental, nutritional, and socioeconomic factors. We found that when mothers' nutritional and health needs are met and there are few environmental constraints on growth, <3.5% of the total variability of skeletal growth was due to differences between populations. We propose that not recognizing the concept of optimal growth could deprive the most vulnerable mothers and their babies of optimal care, because local growth charts normalize those at highest risk for growth restriction and overweight, and can be valuable for policymakers to ensure rigorous evaluation and effective resource allocation. We strongly encourage colleagues to join efforts to provide integrated, evidence-based growth monitoring to pregnant women and their infants worldwide. Presently, there are 23.3 million infants born small for gestational age in low- to middle-income countries according to the INTERGROWTH-21 st newborn size standards. We suggest that misclassification of these infants by using local charts could affect the delivery of optimal health care. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Summary of regional response to the fourth inquiry.

PubMed

1979-01-01

Most of the governments that have responded to the 4th United Nations Population Growth Inquiry consider that the current rates of population growth are constraining the achievement of objectives of social economic development, and thus are unsatisfactory. The view of the governments of Iran, Pakistan, the Republic of Korea and Sri Lanka is that their current rates of growth constrain all aspects of development. The governments of Japan, Malaysia, and Singapore regard their current rates of growth as satisfactory and contributing to different aspects of economic and social development. As for mortality, most governments in the ESCAP region consider the current level of average life expectancy at birth acceptable, but present levels are unacceptable to the governments of Bangladesh, India, Iran, Nepal, Samoa and Thailand. Most governments consider their current levels of fertility to be too high and that they constrain the family well being, but the governments of Japan and Singapore believe that their fertility has contributed to the family well being. Additional attention in the inquiry was directed to obtaining information on the promotion of knowledge and policies (data collection and analysis; research; management, training, education and information; and development and evaluation of population policies). 10 governments have established a high level unit to deal with population policies, and 10 governments have indicated that they have integrated population measures and programs into comprehensive social and economic plans and programs.

U.S. Population: Where We Are; Where We're Going.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van der Tak, Jean, Ed.

1982-01-01

Recent trends in the dynamics and character of the U.S. population, outlook for the remainder of 1980s, and prospects for long-term growth are reviewed. Estimated at 232 million as of mid-1982, the U.S. population is currently growing at about 1 percent/year, one of the developed world's highest growth rates. Natural increase (births minus deaths)…

78 FR 43123 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; 6-Month Extension of Final Determinations on the...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-19

...; (4) Projections for future residential development and human population growth within Gunnison sage.... Specifically, commenters suggested that we may have overestimated the amount of future growth in human... population trends. Specifically, some scientists [[Page 43124

Energetics of growth and reproduction in a high-tidal population of the clam Ruditapes decussatus from Urdaibai Estuary (Basque Country, N. Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urrutia, M. B.; Ibarrola, I.; Iglesias, J. I. P.; Navarro, E.

1999-08-01

Energetics of growth and reproduction were studied in a high-tidal population of the clam Ruditapes decussatus living in the Mundaka Estuary in the Biosphere Reserve of Urdaibai (Basque Country, North Spain). The study included an analysis of growth rings on the shells to establish the growth curve as well as seasonal patterns of growth and body condition, and estimates of the breeding cycle including quantification of the reproductive output and reproductive effort. The simultaneous determination of the seasonal course of metabolism allowed estimates of assimilation, growth efficiency and reproductive costs. Growth rates were consistently lower in this population than in other populations from similar latitudes, and this effect is interpreted in terms of nutritional restrictions caused by the high tidal position of the population. Assimilation rapidly increased from March to July, as a consequence of optimal nutritional conditions and increasing water temperatures. Somatic growth (spring) and gonadal development (early summer) both took place during this period. Negative growth was restricted to the winter and late summer and was associated with poor nutritional conditions (winter) and high rates of metabolic expenditure induced by high temperatures (late summer). Net growth efficiencies (ranging from 27% in 1-y-old to 6% in 7-y-old individuals) ranked among the lowest recorded for populations of marine bivalves. Reduced reproductive-effort values were consistent with the poor growing conditions that appeared to characterise this population of clams.

Introduction: population migration and urbanization in developing countries.

PubMed

Kojima, R

1996-12-01

This introductory article discusses the correlation between migration and rapid urbanization and growth in the largest cities of the developing world. The topics include the characteristics of urbanization, government policies toward population migration, the change in absolute size of the rural population, and the problems of maintaining megacities. Other articles in this special issue are devoted to urbanization patterns in China, South Africa, Iran, Korea and Taiwan as newly industrialized economies (NIEs), informal sectors in the Philippines and Thailand, and low-income settlements in Bogota, Colombia, and India. It is argued that increased urbanization is produced by natural population growth, the expansion of the urban administrative area, and the in-migration from rural areas. A comparison of urbanization rates of countries by per capita gross national product (GNP) reveals that countries with per capita GNP of under US$2000 have urbanization rates of 10-60%. Rates are under 30% in Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, China, and Indonesia. Rapid urbanization appears to follow the economic growth curve. The rate of urbanization in Latin America is high enough to be comparable to urbanization in Europe and the US. Taiwan and Korea have high rates of urbanization that surpass the rate of industrialization. Thailand and Malaysia have low rates of urbanization compared to the size of their per capita GNP. Urbanization rates under 20% occur in countries without economic development. Rates between 20% and 50% occur in countries with or without industrialization. East Asian urbanization is progressing along with industrialization. Africa and the Middle East have urbanization without industrialization. In 1990 there were 20 developing countries and 5 developed countries with populations over 5 million. In 10 of 87 developing countries rural population declined in absolute size. The author identifies and discusses four patterns of urban growth.

Sustainability of population growth: a case study of urban settlements in Israel.

PubMed

Portnov, B A; Pearlmutter, D

1997-01-01

"One of the most sensitive criteria for gauging the degree of socio-economic prosperity of an urban settlement is the ability to sustain stable rates of population growth by attracting newcomers and retaining existing population. The present paper argues that after reaching a particular size (on the average, 20-30,000 residents), urban localities in Israel tend to experience substantial changes in components of their annual population growth. Starting with this inflection point, the growth of settlements gradually becomes less dependent on natural causes (birth and death rates) than on the ability to attract newcomers and retain current residents. On the basis of this conclusion, a strategy of ¿redirecting priorities' to developing the peripheral regions of the country is suggested." excerpt

Growing population causes of unemployment.

PubMed

1995-01-01

At the March, 1995, International Meeting on Population and Social Development in Copenhagen, during the session on unemployment, underemployment, and population it was stated that the problem of employment was the extent to which a nation's labor supply was not matched by labor demand or job opportunities. Population was thus a supply factor, and the country's economic situation was a demand factor. The demographic variables that were considered important in the supply of labor were: a) the size and rate of growth of the population, which was a function of the birth rate, the death rate, and migration; and b) the age structure of the population, which was also a product of the rate of growth of the population and its distribution. An imbalance between the supply of labor and the demand for it gave rise to unemployment and underemployment. The vicious cycle generated by a high dependency burden associated with a young age-structure led to low savings and investments, which in turn led to low economic growth and a low standard of living. This produced high fertility rates, which in turn heightened the dependency burden perpetuating the cycle. This vicious cycle could be broken at only two points: at the high fertility stage, primarily by introducing family planning programs; and at the stage of low economic growth, by adopting policies to accelerate economic growth. To be successful, however, both actions had to be pursued simultaneously. Numerous participants emphasized the global nature of the issue of unemployment and underemployment; the effects of international competition and restrictive trade policies on employment opportunities. The growing disparity between North and South had created a social injustice between countries. Several participants called for more humane policies that favored democracy and promoted human development, and asked for assistance to help create an enabling environment for social and economic development.

Perspectives on population growth.

PubMed

1996-09-01

Assume that everyone has the same information on population growth. There are many different opinions on what that information means and what should be done about it. Some people worry about current rates of growth, especially in the context of growing per capita consumption, and believe that all reasonable steps should be taken to reduce rates and stabilize population size. Others believe that growing populations can be accommodated by reducing consumption in rich countries, that technological progress will supply the new resources needed, that the development needed to support a larger population can be sustained, that large population size fosters prosperity, or that birth rates are falling and current growth is just temporary. These are all valid positions worthy of at least debate. Interest groups commonly acknowledgement population growth as a significant issue, but offer no response to it. Sometimes the issue goes unrecognized because it conflicts with a more highly valued personal agenda item. Finally, some responses come from confusion and anger rather than reasoning or self-interest. The proponents of these latter arguments bring nothing constructive to the debate.

Population facts that can spur women's well being.

PubMed

Harrison, P

1994-01-01

Although women's rights proposals included in the International Conference on Population and Development deserve support on their own merit, governments are more likely to increase funding for human development if the environmental and economic advantages of investing in women are spelled out. A significant negative association between income growth and population growth emerged in the 1980s. During this decade, 41 countries where population was growing more slowly demonstrated an average income growth of 1.23% per year, while average income fell by an average of 1.25% per year in 41 countries where there was more rapid population growth. In the 1965-80 period, there was no such correlation. Moreover, population control is among the most effective measures for protecting the environment. If--through female education, women's rights, maternal-child health, and family planning--the United Nations' low population projection existed in the year 2050 as opposed to the medium projection (2.2 billion higher), 4.4 million square kilometers of land would be saved and there would be 9.3 billion tones less in carbon dioxide emissions per year. This would be equivalent to halting all current deforestation and a 26% improvement in global energy improvement. Achievement of the low projection would further result in 342 million fewer cases of malnutrition than the medium projection.

Korea: balancing economic growth and social protection for older adults.

PubMed

Yoon, Hyun-Sook

2013-06-01

Population aging in Korea is projected to be the most rapid among Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries between 2000 and 2050. However, social spending in Korea remains low, reflecting Korea's relatively young population, limited health and long-term care insurance coverage, and immaturity of its pension system. As these factors evolve in coming years, social spending in Korea is likely to rise toward the OECD average. Sustaining economic growth requires policies to mitigate the impact of rapid population aging by providing social protection for the elderly population. Korea confronts difficult challenges in balancing economic growth and social protection for the elderly population, whereas also ensuring efficiency in social spending.

Computer Simulation of the Population Growth (Schizosaccharomyces Pombe) Experiment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Daley, Michael; Hillier, Douglas

1981-01-01

Describes a computer program (available from authors) developed to simulate "Growth of a Population (Yeast) Experiment." Students actively revise the counting techniques with realistically simulated haemocytometer or eye-piece grid and are reminded of the necessary dilution technique. Program can be modified to introduce such variables…

A tale of three regions : influence of highway investments on population and traffic growth in Virginia.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2005-01-01

To what extent may highway investments shape population growth and land development? To answer this question, three decades of data were examined in the Virginia locations of Fairfax County, Spotsylvania County, and Newport News. In each location, a ...

Population and development.

PubMed

Rao, S V

1992-01-01

A unified approach to development is recommended: one in which the social, economic, and political components are accounted for within a multidimensional process of reorganization and reorientation of structures and attitudes, customs, and beliefs. During the 1970s, development was construed as improvement in employment within a growing economy and elimination of poverty and inequality--a redistribution of growth. Development should increase and widen the distribution of basic life sustaining goods, increase levels of living, and expand economic and social choices and free people from dependence on other people and servitude to ignorance and poverty. Six basic issues linking population growth and development were identified; the interrelationships between economic, social, and demographic variables were explained. The aims of educational development and educational progress as affected by urbanization were discussed. It is inappropriate to isolate economic, social, and demographic concerns as separate entities and as separate from the development process. The population problem of rapid population growth is intertwined with the problem of unmet human needs; problematic are illiteracy, extreme deprivation, insufficient income to purchase essential health services and basic nutrition, and inadequate diets. Improvements have not kept pace with needs. The theories of Malthus are no longer germane, and demographic transition theory is not as effective in achieving or explaining the reduction of birth rates. An approach which attacks poverty and low quality of life would be directed to core motivations. The hidden momentum of population growth and the impact of literacy and age and sex composition are discussed as features of improvement in quality of life and of fertility reduction. Economic and social development are dependent on human resources, not on capital or material resources. The institutional mechanism for developing human potential is the educational system. Even though enrollments have increased over the past 30 years, employment opportunities and standard of living have not changed markedly. India was given as an example of the dynamics of facilities management. Education also impacts on fertility and is affected by the distribution of the population.

Lebensraum: paradoxically, population growth may eventually end wars.

PubMed

Simon, J L

1989-03-01

Population growth may progressively reduce 1 of the motives for making war. Namely, population growth threatens shortages of resources, and especially land. Impending shortages cause a search for ways to mitigate the shortages. The discoveries eventually produce greater availability of resources than if population growth and pressure on resources had never occurred. The argument runs as follows: 1) Rhetoric about resources scarcity induced by population density has often contributed to international conflict, even if economics has not been the main motive in making war. 2) In the pre-modern era, war to obtain land and other resources may sometimes have been an economically sound policy. 3) Politicians and others in industrially developed nations believe resources may still be a casus belli. 4) Land and other productive resources are no longer worth acquiring at the cost of war.

Urban growth as a component of global change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, Annemarie

Urbanization---both the shift in population to urban areas and the physical transformation of land---has accelerated in recent decades in nearly all parts of the world. Urban growth is known to affect local environments through microclimatic changes, pollution, and loss of natural and agricultural lands, and has the potential to influence global circulation, biogeochemistry, and energy balance. To assess these impacts, rates and patterns of urban expansion and their relation to socioeconomic drivers must be determined. A combination of multiple sources of coarse resolution remotely sensed data and a Bayesian data fusion approach result in global maps of urban areas that show reasonable accuracy in terms of the size and location of cities, and are suitable for use in regional-global climate models. To understand changes in urban form locally, medium-resolution remote sensing data, pattern metrics, and local census data are combined to provide a suite of urban growth indicators that facilitate comparison of trends across cities from different regions and different levels of economic development. Chengdu, a rapidly developing city in Western China, provides an ideal case study to test these methods. Results show that the city has increased in area over 350% from 1978 to 2002, while expanding primarily along transportation routes with fragmentation in periurban areas. Comparison of growth metrics for 25 cities from 13 countries for the period 1990-2000 reveals four city types: low-growth cities characterized by modest rates of infilling-type expansion, high-growth cities with rapid, fragmented development, expansive-growth cities with extensive dispersion at low population densities, and frantic-growth cities such as Chengdu, that exhibit extraordinary rates of growth at high population densities. Although all 25 cities are expanding at the urban-rural boundary, cities outside of the U.S. do not show evidence of the large, dispersed spatial forms characteristic of American urban sprawl. Empirical analysis of the linkages between urban growth and population, household, and labor data shows a limited relationship between urban expansion and population change, a factor conventionally thought to play a role in land conversion. Local economic restructuring to industry and service-oriented activities shows some importance in urban growth and dispersion.

National Rehabilitation and Development Plan, 1984-1987.

PubMed

1987-01-01

This document reprints sections of Bolivia's National Rehabilitation and Development Plan for 1984-87. The plan identifies Bolivia's greatest problem as the low growth rate of its productive population and calls for a redistribution of population in accordance with the optimal exploitation of the country's natural resources. A further objective, contingent upon a substantial improvement in the nutrition and health of the population, is to improve the country's educational system. The growth rate of the population must be increased in accordance with a strategy that allows productivity to increase even faster. The required changes in demographics include a rapid increase in life expectancy at birth, an increase in agriculturally-oriented immigration, and moderate urban growth. Specific policies include providing education to increase literacy, promoting breast feeding and health as well as the rights of women, eliminating sex discrimination in formal education, reducing mortality, influencing migration and population settlements, and promoting agricultural technology. Specific health initiatives should lead to increased accessibility to medical care, research to identify health problems related to specific populations, promotion of breast feeding, promotion of community participation in provision of health services, development of sanitation programs, and promotion of sex education to reduce the incidence of unsafe abortion.

Islamic Republic of Iran provides fresh data.

PubMed

1998-01-01

This article presents a demographic statistical profile of the Islamic Republic of Iran, based on 1996 census data. The discussion also focused on the government actions taken since the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development. Total population was 60.1 million. 61% of population lived in urban areas. 51.4% of the population were aged under 20 years of age. 4.3% were aged over 65 years. The annual rate of population growth was 2.7% during 1976-86, and 3.2% during 1986-96. Growth was accounted for by an increase in refugee flow, decreased mortality, and a higher birth rate. The Government in 1987, enacted the Family Planning Law as a measure to reduce the rapid population growth rate. The 1994-98 Five Year Plan integrates population issues with sustainable development strategies. The aim for 1998, is to reduce population growth to 1.5%, fertility to 2.5 children/woman, maternal mortality to 35/100,000 live births, and infant mortality to under 22/1000 live births. Islamic principles address gender issues having to do with equality, equity, and the empowerment of women. A Bureau of Women's Affairs, which was established under the President's Office, aims to promote the status of women and ensure their active participation within the development process. The government has advanced women's position by improving reproductive health and family planning programs. In late 1994, the government began to promote the activities of 70 nongovernmental organizations, many of which are concerned with women's issues. A high council for youth was set up in the President's Office.

Pediatric Dysphagia: Physiology, Assessment, and Management.

PubMed

Dodrill, Pamela; Gosa, Memorie M

2015-01-01

Infancy and childhood represent a time of unparalleled physical growth and cognitive development. In order for infants and children to reach their linear and neurological growth potential, they must be able to reliably and safely consume sufficient energy and nutrients. Swallowing difficulties (dysphagia) in pediatric populations can have a detrimental effect on dietary intake and, thus, growth and development. As a result, it is imperative to accurately identify and appropriately manage dysphagia in pediatric populations. This article provides an overview of dysphagia in children, as well as common causes of childhood swallowing difficulties, populations at risk for pediatric dysphagia, techniques used to assess swallowing in pediatric patients, and the current treatment options available for infants and children with dysphagia. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Kenya.

PubMed

1985-07-01

Kenya's 1st census, in 1948, counted 5.8 million people, the 1979 census counted 15.3 million, and the government estimates the 1984 population at 19.4 million. Development planning began in 1966; the current 5-year plan (1984-1988) stresses manpower, capital, and land development, mainly in the West. The government considers population growth an obstacle to meeting educational, health, housing, food, and employment needs. Kenya's high 4% growth rate results from a high birth rate and a declining death rate. The government intends to reduce population growth to 3.3% by 1988 by 1) informing Kenyans of the benefits of small families and 2) making family planning services easily available, especially in rural areas. Life expectancy is currently 52.9 years and infant mortality is 82/1000. Most health problems relate to childbearing, communicable diseases, malnutrition, and poor sanitation. The current development plan strives to expand services in 1) staff training, information, and education, 2) monitoring and evaluation, 3) contraceptive delivery, and 4) increasing family planning acceptors. Kenyan women desire 7 children and usually have 8. The government is trying to improve the status of women through education and employment, with the expectation of reducing fertility levels. Abortion for contraceptive purposes is illegal; sterilization and contraceptives are available. Neither emigration nor immigration are significant in Kenya. 90% of the people live on 20% of the land. Urban growth is increasing too rapidly and the government's policies to correct the population distribution inequity include 1) urban development, mainly in Western Kenya; 2) encouraging agricultural development; 3) development of export-oriented, resource based, and labor intensive industries; 4) funding development sites outside of Nairobi and Mombasa; 5) stimulating growth in undeveloped areas; 6) improving roads, rails, and ports; and 7) providing adequate water, housing, and energy.

Urban Ecology: Patterns of Population Growth and Ecological Effects

Treesearch

Wayne C. Zipperer; Steward T.A. Pickett

2012-01-01

Currently, over 50% of the world’s population lives in urban areas. By 2050, this estimate is expected to be 70%. This urban growth, however, is not uniformly distributed around the world. The majority of it will occur in developing nations and create megacities whose populations exceed at least 10 million people. Not all urban areas, however, are growing. Some are...

Framework for Creating a Smart Growth Economic Development Strategy

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This step-by-step guide can help small and mid-sized cities, particularly those that have limited population growth, areas of disinvestment, and/or a struggling economy, build a place-based economic development strategy.

Endless urban growth? On the mismatch of population, household and urban land area growth and its effects on the urban debate.

PubMed

Haase, Dagmar; Kabisch, Nadja; Haase, Annegret

2013-01-01

In European cities, the rate of population growth has declined significantly, while the number of households has increased. This increase in the number of households is associated with an increase in space for housing. To date, the effects of both a declining population and decreasing household numbers remain unclear. In this paper, we analyse the relationship between population and household number development in 188 European cities from 1990-2000 and 2000-2006 to the growth of urban land area and per capita living space. Our results support a trend toward decreasing population with simultaneously increasing household number. However, we also found cites facing both a declining population and a decreasing household number. Nevertheless, the urban land area of these "double-declining" cities has continued to spread because the increasing per capita living space counteracts a reduction in land consumption. We conclude that neither a decline in population nor in household number "automatically" solve the global problem of land consumption.

The role of density-dependent individual growth in the persistence of freshwater salmonid populations.

PubMed

Vincenzi, Simone; Crivelli, Alain J; Jesensek, Dusan; De Leo, Giulio A

2008-06-01

Theoretical and empirical models of populations dynamics have paid little attention to the implications of density-dependent individual growth on the persistence and regulation of small freshwater salmonid populations. We have therefore designed a study aimed at testing our hypothesis that density-dependent individual growth is a process that enhances population recovery and reduces extinction risk in salmonid populations in a variable environment subject to disturbance events. This hypothesis was tested in two newly introduced marble trout (Salmo marmoratus) populations living in Slovenian streams (Zakojska and Gorska) subject to severe autumn floods. We developed a discrete-time stochastic individual-based model of population dynamics for each population with demographic parameters and compensatory responses tightly calibrated on data from individually tagged marble trout. The occurrence of severe flood events causing population collapses was explicitly accounted for in the model. We used the model in a population viability analysis setting to estimate the quasi-extinction risk and demographic indexes of the two marble trout populations when individual growth was density-dependent. We ran a set of simulations in which the effect of floods on population abundance was explicitly accounted for and another set of simulations in which flood events were not included in the model. These simulation results were compared with those of scenarios in which individual growth was modelled with density-independent Von Bertalanffy growth curves. Our results show how density-dependent individual growth may confer remarkable resilience to marble trout populations in case of major flood events. The resilience to flood events shown by the simulation results can be explained by the increase in size-dependent fecundity as a consequence of the drop in population size after a severe flood, which allows the population to quickly recover to the pre-event conditions. Our results suggest that density-dependent individual growth plays a potentially powerful role in the persistence of freshwater salmonids living in streams subject to recurrent yet unpredictable flood events.

The Importance of Human Ecology at the Threshold of the Next Millennium: How Can Population Growth Be Stopped?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nentwig, W.

Ecology is defined as the set of complex interactions between the biotic and abiotic environments. Human ecology concerns principally the population ecology "only" of Homo sapiens, but it also includes all aspects of global ecology because humans are the most important species. Human demography is characterized by a recent decline in mortality and fertility rates. These demographic transitions have largely been completed in industrialized countries, but not in the 140 developing countries. Approximately 100 countries are following the same demographic pattern as industrialized countries, however with a time delay of several generations. China has effectively reduced its population increase by means that would be unacceptable in Western democracies. Some 44 developing countries still show increasing population growth and no detectable demographic transition in birth rate. Thus one part of the world shows limited (and, in the long run, shrinking) population growth, and another continues with a strong increase. All populations are limited in their development by their sustainability by their environment, for example, food and energy resources, and the extent of pollution which the use of these resources produces. It is argued that in the case of human population the limits of sustainability have already been reached with the 6 billion humans alive today, since at least 20% of these suffer from hunger, natural resources are overexploited, and biodiversity is threatened. In the coming 200years it is more likely that the total population will substantially oscillate rather than approach the predicted 12 billion. The most important goal of human ecology should therefore be to slow population growth as far as possible.

Development and population growth: the Indian experience.

PubMed

Chandna, R C

1996-01-01

This paper analyzes the prevailing demographic trends and development processes in India. Data were taken from the World Development Report and the Human Development Reports of South Asia and India, Census of India, and Government of India's Economic Survey. A much slower economic progress and human development was observed in South Asia as compared to those in East Asia. At present, the income levels in East Asia are 27 times higher and have a human development index twice that of South Asia. India had a better economic performance as compared to other countries in South Asia. However, the human deprivations within India continue to hinder the country's emergence as a politico-economic power on the international scene. Investigation of the diversity in population growth and development in India was presented in this paper using indicators such as: average annual population growth; couple protection rate; female literacy; mean age at marriage for females; infrastructural facilities; proportion below poverty line; and the per capita income. Finally, specific suggestions on how to accelerate the fertility transition in the country were enumerated.

The impact of rapid population growth, expanding urbanisation, and other factors on development in sub-Saharan Africa: the contrasting responses of Tanzania and Kenya.

PubMed

Huth, M J

1984-01-01

This article analyzes the impact of the twin factors of rapid population growth and expanding urbanization on social and economic development in sub-Saharan Africa and compares policies that have been developed in Tanzania and Kenya in response to these factors. The principal consequences of overpopulation and overurbanization have been economic stagnation and physical and cultural malaise in urban population centers. Between 1960-80, per capita incomes in 19 countries of sub-Saharan Africa grew by less than 1%/year and 15 countries recorded a negative rate of growth in per capita income during the 1970s. Urban populations have increased at at overall rate of 6%/year as sub-Saharan Africans have migrated to cities in search of employment. Few national governments in the region have formulated longterm strategies to deal effectively with this double-faceted development constraint or have integrated new urban populations into the national economy. tanzania's development strategy is focused on the goals of socialism, rural development, and self-reliance. Urban development has remained a residual item in Tanzania's national development process, despite the fact that the urban population increased from 5.7% of the total population in 1967 to 12.7% in 1978 and is projected to comprise 24.7% by the year 2000. In contrast, Kenya, whose proportion of urban population increased from 9% to 15% between 1962 and 1979, has pursued an urban-focused development strategy. The strong urban-rural linkages of the economy have focused migration to the secondary towns. The national development plan includes urban spatial, employment, and investment policies. Although this plan constitutes a good basis for future planning, the magnitude of the urban problem is beyond the capabilities of the central government and requires the development of local capabilities.

Population education in the school curriculum: a comparative analysis of the American and Asian models.

PubMed

Okobiah, O S

1981-02-01

The content, strategies, and objectives of population education curriculum materials developed for use in school systems in a developed country (US) and in a developing country (Thailand) were compared. It was assumed that the objectives and strategies of population education developed in a specific country would reflect the way in which population matters were viewed by that country's policy makers and planners. In developed countries, population education is primarily an outgrowth of environmental concerns. In less developed countries population education is pursued mainly because of concerns about rapid population growth. The specific curriculum materials which were analyzed were the Population, Environmental-Ecological Education Project developed by the Missouri State Department of Education and the Population and Family Education Project developed in Bangkok. A conceptual framework for analyzing the content of the materials was developed. The framework included 5 major parameters. These parameters were 1) a description of the human population, 2) basic population concepts and processes, 3) population dynamics, 4) the causes and consequences of population change, and 5) population issues. Content analysis of the materials revealed that the content focus was similar for both of the curriculum materials. 74% of the Asian curricula and 73% of the US curricula focused on population issues and on the causes and consequences of population growth; however, the US materials emphasized environmental consequences and policies while the Asian materials emphasized family planning policies and the effects of population growth on family, community, sociocultural, and personal factors. Marked differences were revealed when the instructional strategies and course objectives of the materials were judged in reference to established educational standards of objectivity. All of the sampled instructional strategies in the US materials were judged as suitable for use in the formal school setting in that they encouraged students to analyze information and to develop their own generalizations. Most of the sampled strategies in the Asian materials were judged to be inappropriate for use in the formal school setting as they sought to indoctrinate students with specific attitudes and norms, e.g., the small family norm. The materials instructed the Asian teachers to manipulate, limit, and mold discussion sessions while the US materials encouraged teachers to develop the analytic skills of their students. The approach adopted in the Asian materials will ultimately defeat the goal of population education which is to prepare students to make informed and rational population related decisions when they reach adulthood.

Population Growth, Energy Use, and Pollution: Understanding the Driving Forces of Global Change. Hands-On! Developing Active Learning Modules on the Human Dimensions of Global Change.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kuby, Michael

Since the beginning of the scientific revolution in the 1700s, the absolute scale of the human economy has increased many times over, and, with it, the impact on the natural environment. This learning module's activities introduce the student to linkages among population growth, energy use, level of economic and technological development and their…

Growth and development of thermoregulation in nestling San Miguel Island Song Sparrows

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sogge, Mark K.; Kern, Michael D.; Kern, Robert; van Riper, Charles

1991-01-01

Patterns of growth (reviewed by Ricklefs 1968, 1969; O'Connor 1984) and the development of endothermy (reviewed by Dawson and Hudson 1970, Dunn 1975, Hill and Beaver 1982) have been well-studied in altricial wild birds, especially passerines. But few studies compare grown and thermogenesis in separate populations of the same species. Results of such studies with emberizids varied among species. King and Hubbard (1981), for example, found that nestlings from subarctic, subalpine, and low-altitude montane populations of White-crowned Sparrows (Zonotrichia leucophrys gambelii) grew at similar rates. In contrast, Rogers (1985) reported that the growth rates of nestlings in different populations of Savannah Sparrows (Passerculus sandwichensis) varied in response to the different environmental constraints of the localities in which they were reared. Nice (1937) and Smith et al. (1982) documented patterns of nestling growth in mainland (Ohio) and insular (Mandarte Island, British Columbia, Canada) populations of Song Sparrows (Melospiza melodia), respectively, and found that they were similar to those reported for most other passerines by Ricklefs (1968, 1969) and O'Connor (1984). In 1985-1986, we had the opportunity to examine the growth of nestlings from a third race of Song Sparrows, M. m. micronyx, which is endemic to San Miguel Island near Santa Barbara, California. We also studied the development of endothermy in these young birds, a process not hitherto described for nestling Song Sparrows. We report both in this paper.

Improving the quality of life.

PubMed

Suyono, H

1993-12-01

It is encouraging that most developing countries now have population policies, but it is discouraging that some countries have been unable to implement their policies. Therefore, Indonesia believes technical cooperation should be strengthened among developing countries. International cooperation is working in 108 developing countries, but the desired impact has yet to be reached, and the quality of life in many countries is still unacceptable. For example, life expectancy at birth in developing countries is 14-17 years shorter for females and 10-13 years shorter for males as compared to developed countries which have superior health and welfare systems. The speed of population growth is also hindering efforts to help improve living conditions, and the biggest increase in growth will occur in Asia and Africa. This will increase the numbers of poor, hungry, and illiterate in developing countries and will lead to a lack of arable land, deterioration in education, and increase in unsafe sanitation. In order to slow population growth, quality family planning (FP) services must be provided to those who want them. By the year 2000, developed countries and donors should be ready to provide half of the required US$10.5 billion to FP services in developing countries. In Indonesia, population programs and policies have been governed by the National FP Coordinating Board as well as by the State Ministry for Population and the Environment, which was divided into two ministries in 1993 in order to deal with the enormity and seriousness of the two issues.

Declining human population but increasing residential development around protected areas in Puerto Rico

Treesearch

J. Castro-Prieto; S. Martinuzzi; V.C. Radeloff; D.P. Helmers; M. Quiñones; W.A. Gould

2017-01-01

Increasing residential development around protected areas is a major threat for protected areas worldwide, and human population growth is often the most important cause. However, population is decreasing in many regions as a result of socio-economic changes, and it is unclear how residential development around protected areas is affected in these situations. We...

Seven ways of causing the less developed countries' population problem to disappear -- in theory.

PubMed

Keyfitz, N

1992-01-01

7 ways in which excessive population growth does not harm development are critically examined. 1) Population growth rates are declining; ignore the absolute numbers. If objectivity is relevant, then rates are for cross-country comparisons and numbers are for impact. 2) Twice as many people has resulted in taking better care of trees and soils. The context is important where less populated countries may be more environmentally concerned, and one can ignore that twice as many people may mean twice as much food and fuel use. There is no convincing empirical evidence even with intermediate variables. 3) Land and materials no longer set limits; the more people, the more brains, the more ideas, and the more technology to circumvent environmental limits. Land has been superseded by productivity advances due to technology. Capital accounts for maybe 10% of economic progress. Technology has transformed but also produced the ozone layer, the greenhouse effect, and the extinction of species. Those in less developed countries want few people and more land and capital. 4) Ignoring nonlinearities and discontinuities, countries with controlled population and rapid population growth have experienced similar patterns of slow income growth. 16% of economic growth is accounted for by lower population growth. However, economic growth may be due to other factors, such as economic riches in oil. A critical point is reached where renewable resources eventually decline. 5) The market will produce an optimum of people, if parents get all the benefits and pay all the costs of having children. Fertility reduction leads to loss of utility. The impact of this decision to bear children without social limits on others must be considered. Net externalities may occur within the nuclear family where the husband plans family size and the wife raises the child; within the community where couples plan the child and the community educates the child; and between the present and future generations where present childbearing affects future welfare. 6) Eliminate the environment from a production model. 7) Fault bad economic policies when rapid population growth occurs. This diversion may focus on bad technology such as replacing fossil fuels with solar energy, wrong economic policies such as in the need to trust the market more. The social and political issues are difficult to resolve. People want to live in the wrong places. Dualism in formal and informal economies occurs. The population problem must not be sidestepped.

Life-history correlations with seasonal cold hardiness in maritime pine.

PubMed

Prada, Eva; Climent, José; Alía, Ricardo; Díaz, Raquel

2016-12-01

Plants have developed mechanisms to withstand stressful environmental conditions, but the high energetic cost of these mechanisms may involve exchanges with other key functions. While trade-offs between cold hardiness and growth rates are a general assumption, we lack information regarding genetically based trade-offs between cold hardiness and other life-history traits. Such information has strong implications for tree conservation and breeding, especially in the context of ongoing climate change. We used a common garden progeny test to examine the relationships between seasonal cold hardiness and life-history traits of growth, reproduction, juvenile ontogeny, and phenology in 75 families of six maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.) populations, three of continental and three of coastal origins. We found a clear differentiation among populations with regard to cold hardiness and life-history traits. Two continental Iberian populations showed high cold tolerance and slower growth, but faster ontogenetic development in relation to both vegetative heteroblastic change in juveniles and the onset of female reproduction. The coastal populations displayed the opposite behavior, while the continental Moroccan population presented a unique combination of traits. We confirmed trade-offs between cold-hardiness and growth at the population level, but not within populations. There were no trade-offs with other life-history traits at either level. Relevant local adaptation syndromes were identified in the relationship between cold hardiness and life-history traits. These should be considered in developing tree management guidelines aimed at increasing productivity or adaptability under the expected conditions of climate change. © 2016 Botanical Society of America.

Selecting Populations for Non-Analogous Climate Conditions Using Universal Response Functions: The Case of Douglas-Fir in Central Europe

PubMed Central

Chakraborty, Debojyoti; Wang, Tongli; Andre, Konrad; Konnert, Monika; Lexer, Manfred J.; Matulla, Christoph; Schueler, Silvio

2015-01-01

Identifying populations within tree species potentially adapted to future climatic conditions is an important requirement for reforestation and assisted migration programmes. Such populations can be identified either by empirical response functions based on correlations of quantitative traits with climate variables or by climate envelope models that compare the climate of seed sources and potential growing areas. In the present study, we analyzed the intraspecific variation in climate growth response of Douglas-fir planted within the non-analogous climate conditions of Central and continental Europe. With data from 50 common garden trials, we developed Universal Response Functions (URF) for tree height and mean basal area and compared the growth performance of the selected best performing populations with that of populations identified through a climate envelope approach. Climate variables of the trial location were found to be stronger predictors of growth performance than climate variables of the population origin. Although the precipitation regime of the population sources varied strongly none of the precipitation related climate variables of population origin was found to be significant within the models. Overall, the URFs explained more than 88% of variation in growth performance. Populations identified by the URF models originate from western Cascades and coastal areas of Washington and Oregon and show significantly higher growth performance than populations identified by the climate envelope approach under both current and climate change scenarios. The URFs predict decreasing growth performance at low and middle elevations of the case study area, but increasing growth performance on high elevation sites. Our analysis suggests that population recommendations based on empirical approaches should be preferred and population selections by climate envelope models without considering climatic constrains of growth performance should be carefully appraised before transferring populations to planting locations with novel or dissimilar climate. PMID:26288363

Trading Population for Productivity: Theory and Evidence

PubMed Central

Galor, Oded; Mountford, Andrew

2013-01-01

This research argues that the differential effect of international trade on the demand for human capital across countries has been a major determinant of the distribution of income and population across the globe. In developed countries the gains from trade have been directed towards investment in education and growth in income per capita, whereas a significant portion of these gains in less developed economies have been channeled towards population growth. Cross-country regressions establish that indeed trade has positive effects on fertility and negative effects on education in non-OECD economies, while inducing fertility decline and human capital formation in OECD economies. PMID:25089061

Population pressures in Latin America. [Updated reprint].

PubMed

Merrick, T W

1991-04-01

This publication examines the main demographic changes in Latin America since World War II, and considers their social and economic impact on the region. The paper looks at the following demographic trends: population growth, fertility, death rate, internal migration, international migration, and age structure. It also examines other factors such as marriage and family structure, and employment and education. Furthermore, the publication provides a discussion of the relationship between population growth and economic development from both a neo-Malthusian and Structuralist view. Finally, the paper considers the region's current population policies and future population prospects. From 1950-65, annual population growth averaged 2.8%, which decreased moderately to 2.4% from 1965-85. The report identified 3 population growth patterns in the region: 1) countries which experienced early and gradual declines in birth and death rates and generally lower population growth rates (the group includes Argentina, Cuba, Uruguay, with Chile and Panama also closely fitting the description); 2) countries which underwent rapid declines in birth rate during the 1950s and which began experiencing declines in the birth rate after 1960 (Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Mexico, Paraguay, and Venezuela, with Ecuador and Peru as borderline cases); and 3) countries which didn't begin to experience declines in mortality rates until relatively late and which lag behind in fertility declines (Bolivia, Haiti, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua). Although population growth has slowed and will continue to fall, UN projections do not expect the population to stabilize until late in the 21st Century.

Stage-structured matrix models for organisms with non-geometric development times

Treesearch

Andrew Birt; Richard M. Feldman; David M. Cairns; Robert N. Coulson; Maria Tchakerian; Weimin Xi; James M. Guldin

2009-01-01

Matrix models have been used to model population growth of organisms for many decades. They are popular because of both their conceptual simplicity and their computational efficiency. For some types of organisms they are relatively accurate in predicting population growth; however, for others the matrix approach does not adequately model...

Counting the stunted children in a population: a criticism of old and new approaches and a conciliatory proposal.

PubMed

Monteiro, C A

1991-01-01

Two methods for estimating the prevalence of growth retardation in a population are evaluated: the classical method, which is based on the proportion of children whose height is more than 2 standard deviations below the expected mean of a reference population; and a new method recently proposed by Mora, which is based on the whole height distribution of observed and reference populations. Application of the classical method to several simulated populations leads to the conclusion that in most situations in developing countries the prevalence of growth retardation is grossly underestimated, and reflects only the presence of severe growth deficits. A second constraint with this method is a marked reduction of the relative differentials between more and less exposed strata. Application of Mora's method to the same simulated populations reduced but did not eliminate these constraints. A novel method for estimating the prevalence of growth retardation, which is based also on the whole height distribution of observed and reference populations, is also described and evaluated. This method produces better estimates of the true prevalence of growth retardation with no reduction in relative differentials.

Sustainable Development Policy for the Environomy: Population, Land-use, and Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravago, M.; Roumasset, J.

2009-12-01

Despite its inertia and avowed purpose of being practical and feasible, sustainability science has yet to embrace the policy sciences. The existing sustainability science agenda emphasizes the importance of taking a systems approach and stresses capturing many interactions between natural and human systems. In order to incorporate policy analysis, we first trace the history of thought of sustainable development, including its definition and operationalization. After rejecting the popular Venn diagram approach to sustainable development (environment, economy, society) as non-operational and unfettered preservationism as counterproductive, two promising approaches to sustainable growth are contrasted. Negative sustainability is an injunction not to deplete the total value of natural and produced capital, leaving all other questions of economic and environmental management unanswered. To fill the void, we offer positive sustainability, which maximizes intertemporal welfare while incorporating interlinkages within the total environomy. This provides an operational framework for sustainable growth, including the efficiency values of produced and natural capital. In addition, sustainable development must include the optimal patterns of production, consumption, and trade. We illustrate particular patterns of unsustainable development by drawing on lessons from cultivation patterns in the Philippines. In the province of Bukidnon, Philippines the traditional drivers of agricultural expansion were logging and forest fires. In recent decades, intense vegetable cultivation coupled with access to roads and lack of well-defined property rights drive intensification and environmental degradation. Population in the province has risen and grew more than the national average. The high population growth, combined with distorted economic policies, has resulted in extreme population pressure in the province, which decreased the fallow period and caused erosion, falling yields, and downstream pollution. At a national level, the combination of economic stagnation and high population growth results in high migration of labor to hillside agriculture, diminished per capita income, increased poverty, and deterioration of the natural resource base, all of which are negative drags on standards of living. These forces are exacerbated population pressure contributing to the vicious circle of unsustainable development. Thus, the process effectively traps the country in the vicious circle of poverty, population pressure and resource degradation - the essence of unsustainable development. We outline the principles of policy and institutional design that can potentially transform the socio-economic-environmental system into sustainable development. Designing policies and institutions conducive for specialization and innovation spurs growth by raising productivity. Rising standards of living reduce population pressure by substituting demands for child welfare, especially health and education, for demands for greater numbers of children. For sustainable development not to be at odds with policy science, positive sustainability must be combined with efficient development and poverty reduction. We emphasize the facilitative role of government and what it can do to transform the vicious circle into a virtuous circle.

Population policy.

PubMed

1987-03-01

Participants in the Seminar on Population Policies for Top-level Policy Makers and Program Managers, meeting in Thailand during January 1987, examined the challenges now facing them regarding the implementation of fertility regulation programs in their respective countries -- Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Nepal, Pakistan, the Philippines, the Republic of Korea, and Thailand. This Seminar was organized to coincide with the completion of an Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) study investigating the impact and efficiency of family planning programs in the region. Country studies were reviewed at the Seminar along with policy issues about the status of women, incentive and disincentive programs, and socioeconomic factors affecting fertility. In Bangladesh the government recognizes population growth as its top priority problem related to the socioeconomic development of the country and is working to promote a reorientation strategy from the previous clinic-oriented to a multidimensional family welfare program. China's family planning program seeks to postpone marraige, space the births of children between 3-5 years, and promote the 1-child family. Its goal is to reduce the rate of natural increase from 12/1000 in 1978 to 5/1000 by 1985 and 0 by 2000. India's 7th Five-Year-Plan (1986-90) calls for establishing a 2-child family norm by 2000. In Indonesia the government's population policy includes reducing the rate of population growth, achieving a redistribution of the population, adjusting economic factors, and creating prosperous families. The government of Indonesia reversed its policy to reduce the population growth rate in 1984 and announced its goal of achieving a population of 70 million by 2100 in order to support mass consumption industries. It has created an income tax deduction system favoring large families and maternity benefits for women who have up to 5 children as incentives. Nepal's official policy is to decrease fertility, control international migration, and modify the spatial distribution of the population. To reduce its population growth rate, Pakistan has adopted a multi-sectoral, multidimensional approach to family planning. The policy of the government of the Philippines is to bring the population growth rate in line with the availability of natural resources and employment opportunities. In its 5-year plan covering 1982-86, the government of the Republic of Korea emphasized social development, attempting to more fully integrate population and development policies and programs within relevant sectors. To reduce its population growth rate to 1.3% by 1992, the government of Thailand is expanding the reach of its family planning program.

Economic analyses of rapid population growth.

PubMed

Birdsall, N

1989-01-01

"Discussion of the macroeconomic consequences of rapid population growth is organized into three schools: pessimists, optimists, and the recent revisionists. For the revisionists, differing views are presented about the pervasiveness and relevance of market failures, such as the negative externalities of childbearing, and about the ability of families and institutions to adjust rapidly to changes brought on by rapid population growth. A welfare economics approach is used to review the merits of various public policies to reduce fertility, including public financing of family planning services and taxes and incentives associated with childbearing." The focus is on developing countries. excerpt

Population Growth and Development of the Psocid Liposcelis fusciceps (Psocoptera: Liposcelididae) at Constant Temperatures and Relative Humidities.

PubMed

Gautam, S G; Opit, G P; Shakya, K

2016-02-01

We investigated the effects of seven temperatures (22.5, 25.0, 27.5, 30.0, 32.5, 35.0, and 37.5°C) and four relative humidities (43, 55, 63, and 75%) on population growth and development of the psocid Liposcelis fusciceps Badonnel (Psocoptera: Liposcelididae). Results demonstrated that L. fusciceps did not survive at 43% RH, at all temperatures tested. At 55% RH, L. fusciceps did not survive at the highest three temperatures and no psocids survived at 37.5°C and 63% RH. The highest population growth was recorded at 30.0°C and 75% RH where populations increased 16-fold from an initial population of five females. L. fusciceps males have two to four nymphal instars, and the percentages of males with two, three, and four instars were 28, 70, and 2%, respectively. Female L. fusciceps have two to five instars, and the percentages of females with two, three, four, and five instars were 2, 33, 63, and 2%, respectively. The total developmental time for males was shorter than females. We developed temperature-dependent development equations for male and female eggs, individual nymphal, combined nymphal, and combined immature stages. Based on 30-d population growth, L. fusciceps can survive and multiply at a relative humidity of 55% at 22.5-30.0°C, but does better at 27.5-32.5°C and a higher relative humidity of 75%. Relative humidities of ≤ 63% and temperatures of ≥ 32.5°C are detrimental to L. fusciceps. These data provide a better understanding of L. fusciceps population dynamics and can be used to develop effective management strategies for this psocid. © The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Temporal growth and spatial distribution of the fast food industry and its relationship with economic development in China - 2005-2012.

PubMed

Xue, Hong; Cheng, Xi; Zhang, Qi; Wang, Huijun; Zhang, Bing; Qu, Weidong; Wang, Youfa

2017-09-01

The fast food (FF) industry has expanded rapidly in China during the past two decades, in parallel with an increase in the prevalence of obesity. Using government-reported longitudinal data from 21 provinces and cities in China, this study examined the growth over time and the spatial distribution patterns of the FF industry as well as the key social economic factors involved. We visualized the temporal and geographic distributions of FF industry development and conducted cross-sectional and longitudinal spatial analysis to assess associations between macroeconomic conditions, population dynamics, and the growth and distributional changes of the industry. It grew faster in the southeast coastal (more economically developed) areas since 2005 than in other regions. The industry was: 1) highly correlated with Gross Domestic Product; 2) highly correlated with per capita disposable income for urban residents; 3) moderately correlated with urban population; and 4) not correlated with an increase of population size. The mean center of the FF industry shifted westward as the mean center of the GDP moved in the same direction, while the mean center of the population shifted eastward. The results suggest that the rapid FF industry expansion in China was closely associated with economic growth and that improving the food environment should be a major component in local economic development planning. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

World Development Report 1984.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

World Bank, Washington, DC.

This report, seventh in a series of annual publications, examines the relationship between population change and development, showing why continuing rapid population growth in developing countries is likely to mean a lower quality of life for millions of people. The first part of the report concludes that the economies of developing countries can…

[Speech by Oscar Julian Bardeci, director of the Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia (CELADE), at the Latinamerican Regional Meeting prior to the International Conference on Population in recognition of the Second Meeting on Population by the Committee of Upper-Level Government Experts (CEGAN), Havana, Cuba, November 16-19, 1983].

PubMed

Bardeci, O J

1983-12-01

This work examines the relationship between population growth and economic development in Latin America and assesses progress in the 10 years since the Bucharest World Population Conference. The Latin American population increased from about 159 million in 1950 to 275 million in 1970 and around 325 million in 1980. The rate of growth reached a maximum of 2.8%/year in the early 1970s and has now declined to about 2.3%/year. The regional growth rate is a product of population dynamics that differ greatly in individual countries. Crude birth rates declined in every country of Latin America between 1975-80, but still exceeded 40/1000 in 1980-85 in Bolivia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Haiti, Honduras, and Nicaragua. Current fertility is the result of the different trajectories of the demographic transition in different countries. While fertility in Argentina, Cuba, and Uruguay underwent a slow but sustained decline that began prior to 1960, other countries including Colombia, Costa Rica, Chile, and Venezuela began an accelerated fertility decline in the 1960s that diffused rapidly through all age and social groups. Other countries have still not entered a definite phase of fertility decline. Mortality rates have declined appreciably in Latin America in the past few decades although they remain high in some countries. After the end of World War II and until the mid-1970s, most countries of the region experienced rapid economic growth coupled with profound changes in the productive structure. The industrial labor force grew in almost all countries along with urbanization, the decline of agricultural employment, and the increase of the tertiary sector. These and other important economic advances through the mid-1970s occurred despite rapid population growth, and the beginning of the fertility decline coincided with slowing economic growth that saw negative rates in 1981-82. Various studies have shown that not all population sectors were incorporated in the process of economic and social development. The proportion of the population in active age groups has increased dramatically, but no corresponding increase in employment opportunities has occurred. The informal sector has absorbed most of the excess growth, a trend reflected in the exclusion of a large segment of the population from the fruits of economic progress. Population growth and increased life expectancy have created demands for more retirement benefits, health and educational services, transportation, recreation, and housing. Nevertheless, it cannot be concluded that rapid population growth necessarily has negative consequences for economic development or social welfare. There are indications that the problem of poverty in Latin America could be solved if the political will to do so existed; obstacles to overcoming poverty are not primarily material or population-related. Urbanization, settlement of marginal areas, and relative decline of agricultural areas are 3 trends in spatial distribution of varying intensity and repercussions in different countries.

A health priority for developing countries: the prevention of chronic fetal malnutrition.

PubMed

Villar, J; Altobelli, L; Kestler, E; Beliźan, J

1986-01-01

A prospective study of 3557 consecutively born neonates from a lower middle class district in Guatemala City documented a 23.8% incidence of intrauterine growth retardation due to fetal malnutrition. Those infants whose weights are below the 10th percentile of a sex- and race-specific birthweight and gestational age distribution, based on a developed country population, were considered to manifest intrauterine growth retardation. Ponderal index values were then used to further classify this population as having chronic fetal malnutrition (above the 10th percentile of the standard distribution) or subacute fetal malnutrition (below the 10th percentile); the incidences of these conditions were 79.1% and 20.8%, respectively. The results of numerous studies carried out in various populations suggest that developing countries have a higher incidence of chronically malnourished infants within the intrauterine growth retardation population, while subacute fetal malnutrition is more prevalent in developed countries. Moreover, it has been shown that chronically malnourished infants do not recover from their intrauterine damage and score the lowest in mental development tests even up to school age. They remain lighter, shorter, and with a smaller head circumference until at least 3 years of age. Based on the incidence rates ascertained in this study, it can be estimated that at least 2 million infants born each year in Latin America are at risk of chronic intrauterine growth retardation. Screening programs are needed to identify at-risk mothers early in pregnancy so that medical and nutritional interventions can be implemented.

Physical Growth of the Shuar: Height, Weight, and BMI References for an Indigenous Amazonian Population

PubMed Central

URLACHER, SAMUEL S.; BLACKWELL, AARON D.; LIEBERT, MELISSA A.; MADIMENOS, FELICIA C.; CEPON-ROBINS, TARA J.; GILDNER, THERESA E.; SNODGRASS, J. JOSH; SUGIYAMA, LAWRENCE S.

2015-01-01

Objectives Information concerning physical growth among small-scale populations remains limited, yet such data are critical to local health efforts and to foster basic understandings of human life history and variation in childhood development. Using a large dataset and robust modeling methods, this study aims to describe growth from birth to adulthood among the indigenous Shuar of Amazonian Ecuador. Methods Mixed-longitudinal measures of height, weight, and BMI were collected from Shuar participants (n = 2,463; age 0–29 years). Centile growth curves and tables were created for each anthropometric variable of interest using GAMLSS. Pseudo-velocity and LMS curves were generated to further investigate Shuar patterns of growth and to facilitate comparison with U.S. CDC and multinational WHO growth references. Results The Shuar are small throughout life and exhibit complex patterns of growth that differ substantially from those of international references. Similar to other Amazonians, Shuar growth in weight compares more favorably to references than growth in height, resulting in BMI curves that approximate international medians. Several additional characteristics of Shuar development are noteworthy, including large observed variation in body size early in life, significant infant growth faltering, extended male growth into adulthood, and a markedly early female pubertal growth spurt in height. Phenotypic plasticity and genetic selection in response to local environmental factors may explain many of these patterns. Conclusions Providing a detailed reference of growth for the Shuar and other Amazonian populations, this study possesses direct clinical application and affords valuable insight into childhood health and the ecology of human growth. PMID:26126793

Population dynamics and environmental degradation in Nepal: an interpretation.

PubMed

Karki, Y B

1993-01-01

This paper examines the special problems that are faced by developing countries, specifically Nepal, which have to sustain increasing populations from a depleting natural resource base. Nepal is an example of a developing country where fertility is high and mortality is decreasing fast, resulting in a high rate of population growth. Nepal's rapid population growth has had a significant impact on natural resource depletion and consequently, environmental degradation. The case of Nepal demonstrates the difficulties confronting developing countries, which attempt practical implementation of the population policy guidelines set out in Agenda 21. Past and current population programs in this country have failed to address the population problem as multidimensional, and have failed to encourage grassroots participation. Economic stagnation and poverty encourage a large family size, and are delaying declines in fertility which subsequently leads to high land encroachment and fast depletion of natural resources like forests and water. The government needs to implement an integrated, multidimensional approach, which emphasizes literacy, education, lowering infant mortality, and providing contraceptives along with follow-ups. Finally, the greatest action must consist of fostering a higher rate of planned economic and social development that must be shown to have meaning for, and impact on the population in general.

Growth and development of male external genitalia: a cross-sectional study of 6200 males aged 0 to 19 years.

PubMed

Tomova, Analia; Deepinder, Fnu; Robeva, Ralitsa; Lalabonova, Hristina; Kumanov, Philip; Agarwal, Ashok

2010-12-01

To provide estimates of normal variations in penile measurements and testicular volumes, and to establish reference ranges for clinical use. Cross-sectional, population-based study. Schools, kindergartens, and child care centers in different parts of Bulgaria. A population of 6200 clinically healthy white males aged 0 to 19 years. The study physician chose schools, kindergartens, and child care centers randomly and examined children at random until he reached the required number. Each of the 20 age groups (age range, 0-19 years) had an equal number of males (ie, 310). The mean (SD) values and fifth, 50th, and 95th percentiles of height (Siber Hegner anthropometer), weight (beam balance), testicular volume (Prader orchidometer), penile length (rigid tape), and penile circumference (measuring tape) from birth to 19 years of age. Testes did not show any increase in size until the onset of puberty at age 11 years, whereas penile growth was gradual after birth. However, both penile and testicular development demonstrated peak growth from 12 to 16 years of age, which coincided with the maximal male pubertal growth spurt. Data indicate an earlier pubertal development for this study population than that for a similar population several decades ago. Significant differences between urban and rural populations regarding penile length were also noticed. Our study provides the contemporary reference range values for height, weight, testicular volume, and penile length and circumference of males aged 0 to 19 years. Our data show that, even by the end of 20th century, there is still some acceleration of male pubertal development. For the first time are reported somatic differences in genitalia within a population between urban and rural representatives.

Cairo conference to link population and sustainable development.

PubMed

1994-09-01

Couples who want to limit the size of their families but whom family planning services elude are a key factor in the persistence of high rates of fertility and rapid population growth in some countries of the Asian and Pacific region (ESCAP). High fertility and rapid growth are linked to high rates of maternal and child mortality, poverty, and increasing pressure on the environment. These issues will be considered at the International Conference on Population and Development at Cairo from 5 to 13 September, 1994. The Conference objectives entail the promotion of more effective national programs to meet individual needs of women, and to bring population into balance with available resources. The Conference is expected to adopt a program of action covering the period 1995-2015. A preparatory meeting, the Fourth Asian and Pacific Population Conference, adopted the Bali Declaration on Population and Development as a blueprint for ESCAP region countries. Unprecedented growth in human numbers, widespread poverty, social and economic in equality and wasteful consumption are accelerating the depletion of resources and environmental degradation. Rural-to-urban migration will also be major concerns at the Conference. Real poverty and unemployment are the leading causes of urbanization. Recent United Nations data show that by 2005 half the world's population will be urban. Development policies affecting the rural work-force need to emphasize gender equity and access to land tenure and credit. Economic growth and improvement in the quality of life have been fastest in those areas where the status of women is highest, therefore population policies will succeed only if women are equal to men in making and directing policy. The draft Program of Action would commit the world community to goals in education, especially for girls; reduction of infant, child and maternal mortality; and universal access to family planning and reproductive health services.

Urban growth in Korea, 1970-1980: an application of the human ecological perspective.

PubMed

Ko, S H

1994-07-01

This study supports the ecological perspective proposed by Duncan (population, environment, organization, and technology) explaining urban population growth. Data were obtained from the 1970 and 1980 Korean Population Census and Korean Municipal Yearbook on cities with a minimum size of 20,000-50,000 people (108 cities and towns). Urban growth is most strongly influenced by indigenous labor surplus and the population potential of the city to be in contact with another city. Nine multiple regression variables explained just under 66% of the variance in urban growth. Net migration was influential among those aged 15-24 years. The extent of differentiation of industry affected net migration only among those aged 15-24 years and those aged 35-44 years. Population redistribution was more affected directly by changes in industrial organization, and migration was affected indirectly by environmental and technological effects on organization. Urban growth through migration of older age groups was affected by government expenditure on public works. Urban growth was not much affected by transportation/communication concentration, manufacturing concentration, urban labor surplus, population size, and site. Urban growth was viewed as the interaction between the unemployment rate and the urban wage, following Todaro's equilibrium models. In Korea, larger cities only grew faster during the 1960s. By the 1970s, upper middle-sized cities grew faster. Location was not a significant factor in explaining urban growth, but growth was rapid along a corridor within 100 km from Seoul and 50 km from Pusan, the second largest city in Korea. Caution was urged in interpreting Korea's ecological urban growth patterns as indicative of developing countries.

Population growth and economic growth.

PubMed

Narayana, D L

1984-01-01

This discussion of the issues relating to the problem posed by population explosion in the developing countries and economic growth in the contemporary world covers the following: predictions of economic and social trends; the Malthusian theory of population; the classical or stationary theory of population; the medical triage model; ecological disaster; the Global 2000 study; the limits to growth; critiques of the Limits to Growth model; nonrenewable resources; food and agriculture; population explosion and stabilization; space and ocean colonization; and the limits perspective. The Limits to Growth model, a general equilibrium anti-growth model, is the gloomiest economic model ever constructed. None of the doomsday models, the Malthusian theory, the classical stationary state, the neo-Malthusian medical triage model, the Global 2000 study, are so far reaching in their consequences. The course of events that followed the publication of the "Limits to Growth" in 1972 in the form of 2 oil shocks, food shock, pollution shock, and price shock seemed to bear out formally the gloomy predictions of the thesis with a remarkable speed. The 12 years of economic experience and the knowledge of resource trends postulate that even if the economic pressures visualized by the model are at work they are neither far reaching nor so drastic. Appropriate action can solve them. There are several limitations to the Limits to Growth model. The central theme of the model, which is overshoot and collapse, is unlikely to be the course of events. The model is too aggregative to be realistic. It exaggerates the ecological disaster arising out of the exponential growth of population and industry. The gross underestimation of renewable resources is a basic flaw of the model. The most critical weakness of the model is its gross underestimation of the historical trend of technological progress and the technological possiblities within industry and agriculture. The model does correctly emphasize the exponential growth of population as the source of several complications for economic growth and human welfare. Stabilization of population by reducing fertility is conducive for improving the quality of population and also advances the longterm management of the population growth and work force utilization. The perspective of longterm economic management involves populatio n planning, control of environmental pollution, conservation of scarce resources, exploration of resources, realization of technological possibilities in agriculture and industry and in farm and factory, and achievement of economic growth and its equitable distribution.

The world population explosion: causes, backgrounds and projections for the future

PubMed Central

Van Bavel, J.

2013-01-01

At the beginning of the nineteenth century, the total world population crossed the threshold of 1 billion people for the first time in the history of the homo sapiens sapiens. Since then, growth rates have been increasing exponentially, reaching staggeringly high peaks in the 20th century and slowing down a bit thereafter. Total world population reached 7 billion just after 2010 and is expected to count 9 billion by 2045. This paper first charts the differences in population growth between the world regions. Next, the mechanisms behind unprecedented population growth are explained and plausible scenarios for future developments are discussed. Crucial for the long term trend will be the rate of decline of the number of births per woman, called total fertility. Improvements in education, reproductive health and child survival will be needed to speed up the decline of total fertility, particularly in Africa. But in all scenarios, world population will continue to grow for some time due to population momentum. Finally, the paper outlines the debate about the consequences of the population explosion, involving poverty and food security, the impact on the natural environment, and migration flows. Key words: Fertility, family planning, world population, population growth, demographic transition, urbanization, population momentum, population projections. PMID:24753956

Trends and predicted trends in presentations of older people to Australian emergency departments: effects of demand growth, population aging and climate change.

PubMed

Burkett, Ellen; Martin-Khan, Melinda G; Scott, Justin; Samanta, Mayukh; Gray, Leonard C

2017-07-01

Objectives The aim of the present study was to describe trends in and age and gender distributions of presentations of older people to Australian emergency departments (EDs) from July 2006 to June 2011, and to develop ED utilisation projections to 2050. Methods A retrospective analysis of data collected in the National Non-admitted Patient Emergency Department Care Database was undertaken to assess trends in ED presentations. Three standard Australian Bureau of Statistics population growth models, with and without adjustment for current trends in ED presentation growth and effects of climate change, were examined with projections of ED presentations across three age groups (0-64, 65-84 and ≥85 years) to 2050. Results From 2006-07 to 2010-11, ED presentations increased by 12.63%, whereas the Australian population over this time increased by only 7.26%. Rates of presentation per head of population were greatest among those aged ≥85 years. Projections of ED presentations to 2050 revealed that overall ED presentations are forecast to increase markedly, with the rate of increase being most marked for older people. Conclusion Growth in Australian ED presentations from 2006-07 to 2010-11 was greater than that expected from population growth alone. The predicted changes in demand for ED care will only be able to be optimally managed if Australian health policy, ED funding instruments and ED models of care are adjusted to take into account the specific care and resource needs of older people. What is known about the topic? Rapid population aging is anticipated over coming decades. International studies and specific local-level Australian studies have demonstrated significant growth in ED presentations. There have been no prior national-level Australian studies of ED presentation trends by age group. What does this paper add? The present study examined national ED presentation trends from July 2006 to June 2011, with specific emphasis on trends in presentation by age group. ED presentation growth was found to exceed population growth in all age groups. The rate of ED presentations per head of population was highest among those aged ≥85 years. ED utilisation projections to 2050, using standard Australian Bureau of Statistics population modelling, with and without adjustment for current ED growth, were developed. The projections demonstrated linear growth in ED presentation for those aged 0-84 years, with growth in ED presentations of the ≥85 year age group demonstrating marked acceleration after 2030. What are the implications for practitioners? Growth in ED presentations exceeding population growth suggests that current models of acute health care delivery require review to ensure that optimal care is delivered in the most fiscally efficient manner. Trends in presentation of older people emphasise the imperative for ED workforce planning and education in care of this complex patient cohort, and the requirement to review funding models to incentivise investment in ED avoidance and substitutive care models targeting older people.

Testing the role of phenotypic plasticity for local adaptation: growth and development in time-constrained Rana temporaria populations.

PubMed

Lind, M I; Johansson, F

2011-12-01

Phenotypic plasticity can be important for local adaptation, because it enables individuals to survive in a novel environment until genetic changes have been accumulated by genetic accommodation. By analysing the relationship between development rate and growth rate, it can be determined whether plasticity in life-history traits is caused by changed physiology or behaviour. We extended this to examine whether plasticity had been aiding local adaptation, by investigating whether the plastic response had been fixed in locally adapted populations. Tadpoles from island populations of Rana temporaria, locally adapted to different pool-drying regimes, were monitored in a common garden. Individual differences in development rate were caused by different foraging efficiency. However, developmental plasticity was physiologically mediated by trading off growth against development rate. Surprisingly, plasticity has not aided local adaptation to time-stressed environments, because local adaptation was not caused by genetic assimilation but on selection on the standing genetic variation in development time. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2011 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Economic development and coastal ecosystem change in China.

PubMed

He, Qiang; Bertness, Mark D; Bruno, John F; Li, Bo; Chen, Guoqian; Coverdale, Tyler C; Altieri, Andrew H; Bai, Junhong; Sun, Tao; Pennings, Steven C; Liu, Jianguo; Ehrlich, Paul R; Cui, Baoshan

2014-08-08

Despite their value, coastal ecosystems are globally threatened by anthropogenic impacts, yet how these impacts are driven by economic development is not well understood. We compiled a multifaceted dataset to quantify coastal trends and examine the role of economic growth in China's coastal degradation since the 1950s. Although China's coastal population growth did not change following the 1978 economic reforms, its coastal economy increased by orders of magnitude. All 15 coastal human impacts examined increased over time, especially after the reforms. Econometric analysis revealed positive relationships between most impacts and GDP across temporal and spatial scales, often lacking dropping thresholds. These relationships generally held when influences of population growth were addressed by analyzing per capita impacts, and when population density was included as explanatory variables. Historical trends in physical and biotic indicators showed that China's coastal ecosystems changed little or slowly between the 1950s and 1978, but have degraded at accelerated rates since 1978. Thus economic growth has been the cause of accelerating human damage to China's coastal ecosystems. China's GDP per capita remains very low. Without strict conservation efforts, continuing economic growth will further degrade China's coastal ecosystems.

Clinton administration forging population-foreign policy links.

PubMed

De Sherbinin, A

1994-12-01

In the US, the Clinton administration has renewed the link between global population and national security issues. These so-called "soft security issues" receive attention from the Under-Secretary of State for Global Affairs, Tim Wirth, and the senior director of the Global Environmental Affairs branch of the National Security Council, Eileen Claussen. Wirth and Claussen draft the US response to soft security issues such as environmental security, refugee and migration movements, political instability, and religious and ethnic conflict as well as the other nonmilitary threats of illegal drug trafficking, terrorism, and international organized crime. Population was first considered a foreign policy concern in the 1960s. By 1965, President Johnson decided that the US would provide family planning supplies and technical assistance to any country which asked for help. The initial justification for assuming a leading role in developing innovative population strategies for less developed countries was a humanitarian desire to forward economic development, the self-interest of maintaining access to resources, and concern that rapid growth produced more communists. Today the US remains concerned about resource access and economic development and is also wary of spill-over environmental effects, economic migration, diminished US trade opportunities, political asylum seekers and refugees, and increasing demand for US peacekeepers. It is also believed that rapid population growth leads to political destabilization. Critics of these views blame the development difficulties of less developed countries on poor governing decisions (inadequate institutions, trade barriers, or indifference). Women's reproductive rights advocates fear that using security as a rationale for population assistance could lead to restrictions on women's rights to choose the number and spacing of births. Despite such objections, the belief that population growth is an underlying problem in imploding states like Haiti, Rwanda, and Somalia has turned the attention of US policy-makers to these soft security issues.

Ranitidine modifies myeloid cell populations and inhibits breast tumor development and spread in mice

PubMed Central

Vila-Leahey, Ava; Oldford, Sharon A.; Marignani, Paola A.; Wang, Jun; Haidl, Ian D.; Marshall, Jean S.

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Histamine receptor 2 (H2) antagonists are widely used clinically for the control of gastrointestinal symptoms, but also impact immune function. They have been reported to reduce tumor growth in established colon and lung cancer models. Histamine has also been reported to modify populations of myeloid-derived suppressor cells (MDSCs). We have examined the impact of the widely used H2 antagonist ranitidine, on both myeloid cell populations and tumor development and spread, in three distinct models of breast cancer that highlight different stages of cancer progression. Oral ranitidine treatment significantly decreased the monocytic MDSC population in the spleen and bone marrow both alone and in the context of an orthotopic breast tumor model. H2 antagonists ranitidine and famotidine, but not H1 or H4 antagonists, significantly inhibited lung metastasis in the 4T1 model. In the E0771 model, ranitidine decreased primary tumor growth while omeprazole treatment had no impact on tumor development. Gemcitabine treatment prevented the tumor growth inhibition associated with ranitidine treatment. In keeping with ranitidine-induced changes in myeloid cell populations in non-tumor-bearing mice, ranitidine also delayed the onset of spontaneous tumor development, and decreased the number of tumors that developed in LKB1−/−/NIC mice. These results indicate that ranitidine alters monocyte populations associated with MDSC activity, and subsequently impacts breast tumor development and outcome. Ranitidine has potential as an adjuvant therapy or preventative agent in breast cancer and provides a novel and safe approach to the long-term reduction of tumor-associated immune suppression. PMID:27622015

Galactic civilizations - Population dynamics and interstellar diffusion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newman, W. I.; Sagan, C.

1981-01-01

A model is developed of the interstellar diffusion of galactic civilizations which takes into account the population dynamics of such civilizations. The problem is formulated in terms of potential theory, with a family of nonlinear partial differential and difference equations specifying population growth and diffusion for an organism with advantageous genes that undergoes random dispersal while increasing in population locally, and a population at zero population growth. In the case of nonlinear diffusion with growth and saturation, it is found that the colonization wavefront from the nearest independently arisen galactic civilization can have reached the earth only if its lifetime exceeds 2.6 million years, or 20 million years if discretization can be neglected. For zero population growth, the corresponding lifetime is 13 billion years. It is concluded that the earth is uncolonized not because interstellar spacefaring civilizations are rare, but because there are too many worlds to be colonized in the plausible colonization lifetime of nearby civilizations, and that there exist no very old galactic civilizations with a consistent policy of the conquest of inhabited worlds.

The population-development tangle. Aspects and actors.

PubMed

Sen, G

1993-01-01

Since the 1974 Population Conference, the population field has become of interest to members of the fundamentalist right wing, feminists, and environmentalists. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the areas of agreement and disagreement among each set of actors as well as how they define the issues. Currently, development discourse is characterized by considerations of: 1) economic growth, 2) the provision of livelihoods, 3) the provision of basic needs, 4) ecological sustainability and renewability, and 5) political participation. The actors who define the terms of this discourse include: 1) corporate interests, which concentrate on economic growth; 2) international and national agencies, which place primary importance on economic growth and some importance on basic needs and ecological sustainability; 3) popular organizations and social movements, which concentrate on livelihoods, basic needs, and political participation; and 4) environmentalists, who focus on ecological sustainability, economic growth, and (occasionally) political participation. The field of population, on the other hand, is dominated by traditional populationists, whose primary focus is economic growth; developmentalists; the fundamentalist right, who are most concerned with family and control over reproduction; environmentalists; and the women's movement, which is most concerned with reproductive rights and reproductive health. When the perspective of poor women is considered, it can be seen that economic growth and ecological sustainability must support the securing of livelihoods, basic needs, political participation, and reproductive rights, and that reproductive health programs must be part of an overall health agenda.

Rapid population growth and environmental degradation: ultimate versus proximate factors.

PubMed

Shaw, R P

1989-01-01

This philosophical review of 2 arguments about responsibility for and solutions to environmental degradation concludes that both sides are correct: the ultimate and the proximal causes. Ultimate causes of pollution are defined as the technology responsible for a given type of pollution, such as burning fossil fuel; proximate causes are defined as situation-specific factors confounding the problem, such as population density or rate of growth. Commoner and others argue that developed countries with low or negative population growth rates are responsible for 80% of world pollution, primarily in polluting technologies such as automobiles, power generation, plastics, pesticides, toxic wastes, garbage, warfaring, and nuclear weapons wastes. Distortionary policies also contribute; examples are agricultural trade protection, land mismanagement, urban bias in expenditures, and institutional rigidity., Poor nations are responsible for very little pollution because poverty allows little waste or expenditures for polluting, synthetic technologies. The proximal causes of pollution include numbers and rate of growth of populations responsible for the pollution. Since change in the ultimate cause of pollution remains out of reach, altering the numbers of polluters can make a difference. Predictions are made for proportions of the world's total waste production, assuming current 1.6 tons/capita for developed countries and 0.17 tons/capita for developing countries. If developing countries grow at current rates and become more wealthy, they will be emitting half the world's waste by 2025. ON the other hand, unsustainable population growth goes along with inadequate investment in human capital: education, health, employment, infrastructure. The solution is to improve farming technologies in the 117 non-self-sufficient countries, fund development in the most unsustainable enclaves of growing countries, break institutionalized socio-political rigidity in these enclaves, and focus on educating and empowering women in these enclaves. Women are in charge of birth spacing and all aspects of management of energy, food, water and the local environment, more so than men, in most countries.

Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions

PubMed Central

Raupach, Michael R.; Marland, Gregg; Ciais, Philippe; Le Quéré, Corinne; Canadell, Josep G.; Klepper, Gernot; Field, Christopher B.

2007-01-01

CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel burning and industrial processes have been accelerating at a global scale, with their growth rate increasing from 1.1% y−1 for 1990–1999 to >3% y−1 for 2000–2004. The emissions growth rate since 2000 was greater than for the most fossil-fuel intensive of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions scenarios developed in the late 1990s. Global emissions growth since 2000 was driven by a cessation or reversal of earlier declining trends in the energy intensity of gross domestic product (GDP) (energy/GDP) and the carbon intensity of energy (emissions/energy), coupled with continuing increases in population and per-capita GDP. Nearly constant or slightly increasing trends in the carbon intensity of energy have been recently observed in both developed and developing regions. No region is decarbonizing its energy supply. The growth rate in emissions is strongest in rapidly developing economies, particularly China. Together, the developing and least-developed economies (forming 80% of the world's population) accounted for 73% of global emissions growth in 2004 but only 41% of global emissions and only 23% of global cumulative emissions since the mid-18th century. The results have implications for global equity. PMID:17519334

Fire in the South 2: The southern wildfire risk assessment

Treesearch

A. Andreu; L.A. Hermansen-Baez

2008-01-01

The South is one of the fastest growing regions in the nation, with an estimated population growth of 1.5 million people per year. The South also consistently has the highest number of wildfires per year. Population growth is pushing housing developments further into natural and forested areas where most of these wildfires occur. This...

Is There Hidden Potential for Rural Population Growth in Sweden?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Niedomysl, Thomas; Amcoff, Jan

2011-01-01

Rural depopulation is a concern in many countries, and various policy initiatives have been taken to combat such trends. This article examines whether hidden potential for rural population growth can be found in Sweden. If such potential exists, it implies that the development prospects for many rural areas are not as unpromising as they may seem…

A Perspective: Educational Goals and Changes, 1988-2010. Educational Benchmarks 2000 Series

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Edmonds, Rick

2010-01-01

The author provides a perspective on progress in the Southern Regional Education Board (SREB) states since 1988, when SREB developed 12 goals to reach by the year 2000. Growth in population and school enrollment trends are highlighted--what was expected and the huge population and job growth that occurred. Looking ahead to 2010, projected job…

The Effect of Population Growth upon the Quantity of Education Children Receive.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Simon, Julian L.; Pilarski, Adam M.

1979-01-01

There is indeed some negative effect of population growth on the amount of education in developing nations, but the effect is less severe than has been thought. This finding is in sharp contrast to previous conclusions drawn from similar cross-national data. Available from Review of Economics and Statistics, M-8 Littauer Center, Cambridge, MA…

Convergent evolution of embryonic growth and development in the eastern fence lizard (Sceloporus undulatus).

PubMed

Oufieroi, Christopher E; Angilletta, Michael J

2006-05-01

Theory predicts that cold environments will select for strategies that enhance the growth of ectotherms, such as early emergence from nests and more efficient use of resources. We used a common garden experiment to detect parallel clines in rates of embryonic growth and development by eastern fence lizards (Sceloporus undulatus). Using realistic thermal conditions, we measured growth efficiencies and incubation periods of lizards from five populations representing two distinct clades. In both clades, embryos from cold environments (Indiana, New Jersey, and Virginia) grew more efficiently and hatched earlier than embryos from warm environments (Florida and South Carolina). Because eggs from cold environments were larger than eggs from warm environments, we experimentally miniaturized eggs from one population (Virginia) to determine whether rapid growth and development were caused by a greater maternal investment. Embryos in miniaturized eggs grew as efficiently and incubated for the same duration as embryos in unmanipulated eggs. Taken together, our results suggest countergradient variation has evolved at least twice in S. undulatus.

[Effect of the development phase and growth rate of a Shigella sonnei population on the reproduction of homologous bacteriophage].

PubMed

Voroshilova, N N; Kazakova, T B

1983-04-01

This study showed that the minimum latent period (20 minutes) of the intracellular multiplication of dysentery bacteriophage S-9 in the population of S. sonnei substrate strain under the conditions of static heterogeneous surface batch cultivation was observed at the end of the lag phase and at the growth acceleration phase, in the first and second thirds of the exponential curve, while the maximum latent period (35-40 minutes) was observed at the stationary phase. The maximum yield of phage S-9 from one infected bacterial cell (628.3 +/- 116.8) was registered during the first third of the phase of the exponential growth of the bacterial population and the minimum yield (18.66 +/- 6.6), at the beginning of the lag phase. The significant direct correlation between the specific growth rate of the bacterial population and the yield of the phage from one infected bacterial cell at the end of the lag phase, at the growth acceleration and deceleration phases, as well as the significant inverse correlation between the yield of the phage and the time of the generation of the bacterial population at the growth acceleration phase were established.

Afghanistan.

PubMed

1983-05-01

In this discussion of Afghanistan, attention focuses on: the history of the country's demographic situation; the government's overall approach to population problems; population data systems and development planning; institutional arrangements for the integration of population within development objectives; population size, growth, and natural increase; morbidity and mortality; fertility; international migration; and spatial distribution. Only recently has there been a population census in the country; consequently, there has been relatively little reliable demographic information available, especially in a historical context. Afghanistan's total population was officially estimated at nearly 16 million in late 1967. According to UN estimates, the population totaled 8.3 million in 1960 and increased to 9.8 and 12.3 million in the following 2 decades to over 14 million by 1975. The rate of population growth, as estimated by the UN, is reported to have increased from 1.6% during 1950-55 to 2.4% by the following decade, reaching 2.9% during 1970-75. The crude birthrate declined slightly from 50.4 births/1000 during 1950-55 to 49.2 during 1970-75. The crude death rate declined from 34.6/1000 to 23.4 deaths/1000 during the same period. Although the rate of population growth is considered to be fairly high, the government does not perceive this as presenting a population problem for the country as a whole since the overall population density is relatively low (approximately 20 persons per square kilometer). A national statistical information system has been developed in Afghanistan over the past decades. The government has no explicit population policy, and a clear association between population and development issues has not been expressed. Policies in the area of population distribution indicate the government's concern with settlement and resettlement of certain segments of the population in connection with the overall economic and social development of sparsely populated areas. The government perceives the current rate of population growth as unsatisfactory because it is too high, but does not view this as presenting any particular population problem. Data on mortality rates based primarily on the 1979 census indicate a crude death rate of 22/1000 for the sedentary population. The government regards the levels off mortality to bbe unacceptable, and its official goal is to rapidly reduce mortality and morbidity. High priority is given to the prevention and treatment of morbidity among young children. The fertility levels are quite high, compared acceptability of these levels. Direct governmental support is givenn to the family planning program in terms of both access to informartion and family planning methods. Levels of immigration are not significant. No official policy concerning the spatial distribution of the population has been formulated.

Population and the World Bank.

PubMed

Sankaran, S

1973-12-01

The World Bank Group regards excessive population growth as the single greatest obstacle to economic and social advance in the underdeveloped world. Since 1969 the Bank and the International Development Agency have provided countries with technical assistance through education, fact-finding, and analysis and given 65.7 million dollars for population projects. These projects, in India, Indonesia, Iran, Jamaica, and Malaysia provide training centers, population education, research, and evaluation as well as actual construction of clinics and mobile units. Because population planning touches sensitive areas of religion, caste, race, morality, and politics, the involved nation's political commitment to plan population growth is critical to the success of any program.

Africa: rapid population increase retards development.

PubMed

1993-10-01

The Organization of African Unity (OAU), the African Development Bank (ADB) and the UN Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) have criticized African governments for not taking the problem of unchecked population growth seriously enough. "Until recently most African governments did not view rapid population growth as a matter for concern," said the OAU assistant secretary-general for political affairs, Machivenyika Mapuranga, at a seminar on 'population and development'. The OAU estimates that an annual average population increase of 3.1% far outstrips Africa's economic growth, which in 1992 was less than 1%. Mapuranga acknowledged that cutting the population increase is an uphill struggle, especially among rural communities. African agriculture is largely labor intensive, sustained by smallholders, which encourages farmers to have more children. Like other wage earners, African farmers look to support from their family when they grow old and, for that reason, the number of children also counts. But with agricultural production growing at an average annual rate of 2.5%, self-sufficiency in food remains an elusive goal. Cities in sub-Saharan Africa are growing much faster than the overall rate of population increase of 3.1% per year. Between 1980 and 1988 the region's urban population increased at the rate of 6.9% a year. Urban areas now account for nearly 30% of the sub-Saharan Africa population, currently put at 680 million. By 2025, approximately 700 million people are expected to live in urban areas. Despite migration to towns, the rural population is expected to rise more than 68%, reaching over 590 million. full text

[Opening speech by President Suleyman Demirel for the meeting "Population Issues in Turkey: Policy Priorities"].

PubMed

Demirel, S

1994-01-01

Mr. Demirel says that at the root of all problems faced by society is population growth. He points out that with an annual population growth of about 2.5%, Turkey's standard of living will be low even if it is possible to feed the growing population, and he says Turkey's first goal should be to create public awareness of individual responsibilities. In this task, Mr. Demirel adds, the government, the parliament, educational institutions, the media, voluntary organizations, and scientists all have a role to play. Mr. Demirel states that Turkey's second goal should be to bring down the rate of population growth to around 1% within 20 years. The country's third goal, according to Mr. Demirel, should be to reduce the proportion of the population dependent on agriculture, since population growth is highest in rural areas and migration into urban areas is taxing city resources and creating slum communities. Mr. Demirel adds that dependence on agriculture will not create wealth for a nation and says that the goal should be to reduce Turkey's approximately 50% dependence on agriculture to about 10%, also within 20 years. Mr. Demirel goes on to point out that 50% of Turkey's population remains outside the social security umbrella and that in rural areas children represent a family's security during old age. It is therefore imperative to expand the social security umbrella. Turkey's fourth goal, as put forth by Mr. Demirel, should be to ensure orderly development. To increase the standard of living, the rate of population growth must be reduced while increasing the rate of development. He adds that it is also important to improve the distribution of wealth. This, says Mr. Demirel, is his fifth goal and can be achieved by overcoming the regional differences in rates of development with the aim of directing the inevitable migration from rural areas to nearby small cities, away from the large cities of Ankara, Istanbul, and Izmir. Mr. Demirel says that it will take time to achieve these goals, but that it is possible if the State adopts these goals as a national policy and if the Turkish people adopt the same goals as their own.

Global population trends and policy options.

PubMed

Ezeh, Alex C; Bongaarts, John; Mberu, Blessing

2012-07-14

Rapid population growth is a threat to wellbeing in the poorest countries, whereas very low fertility increasingly threatens the future welfare of many developed countries. The mapping of global trends in population growth from 2005-10 shows four distinct patterns. Most of the poorest countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, are characterised by rapid growth of more than 2% per year. Moderate annual growth of 1-2% is concentrated in large countries, such as India and Indonesia, and across north Africa and western Latin America. Whereas most advanced-economy countries and large middle-income countries, such as China and Brazil, are characterised by low or no growth (0-1% per year), most of eastern Europe, Japan, and a few western European countries are characterised by population decline. Countries with rapid growth face adverse social, economic, and environmental pressures, whereas those with low or negative growth face rapid population ageing, unsustainable burdens on public pensions and health-care systems, and slow economic growth. Countries with rapid growth should consider the implementation of voluntary family planning programmes as their main policy option to reduce the high unmet need for contraception, unwanted pregnancies, and probirth reproductive norms. In countries with low or negative growth, policies to address ageing and very low fertility are still evolving. Further research into the potential effect of demographic policies on other social systems, social groups, and fertility decisions and trends is therefore recommended. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Life-history plasticity and sustainable exploitation: a theory of growth compensation applied to walleye management.

PubMed

Lester, Nigel P; Shuter, Brian J; Venturelli, Paul; Nadeau, Daniel

2014-01-01

A simple population model was developed to evaluate the role of plastic and evolutionary life-history changes on sustainable exploitation rates. Plastic changes are embodied in density-dependent compensatory adjustments to somatic growth rate and larval/juvenile survival, which can compensate for the reductions in reproductive lifetime and mean population fecundity that accompany the higher adult mortality imposed by exploitation. Evolutionary changes are embodied in the selective pressures that higher adult mortality imposes on age at maturity, length at maturity, and reproductive investment. Analytical development, based on a biphasic growth model, led to simple equations that show explicitly how sustainable exploitation rates are bounded by each of these effects. We show that density-dependent growth combined with a fixed length at maturity and fixed reproductive investment can support exploitation-driven mortality that is 80% of the level supported by evolutionary changes in maturation and reproductive investment. Sustainable fishing mortality is proportional to natural mortality (M) times the degree of density-dependent growth, as modified by both the degree of density-dependent early survival and the minimum harvestable length. We applied this model to estimate sustainable exploitation rates for North American walleye populations (Sander vitreus). Our analysis of demographic data from walleye populations spread across a broad latitudinal range indicates that density-dependent variation in growth rate can vary by a factor of 2. Implications of this growth response are generally consistent with empirical studies suggesting that optimal fishing mortality is approximately 0.75M for teleosts. This approach can be adapted to the management of other species, particularly when significant exploitation is imposed on many, widely distributed, but geographically isolated populations.

Contrasting growth forecasts across the geographical range of Scots pine due to altitudinal and latitudinal differences in climatic sensitivity.

PubMed

Matías, Luis; Linares, Juan C; Sánchez-Miranda, Ángela; Jump, Alistair S

2017-10-01

Ongoing changes in global climate are altering ecological conditions for many species. The consequences of such changes are typically most evident at the edge of a species' geographical distribution, where differences in growth or population dynamics may result in range expansions or contractions. Understanding population responses to different climatic drivers along wide latitudinal and altitudinal gradients is necessary in order to gain a better understanding of plant responses to ongoing increases in global temperature and drought severity. We selected Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) as a model species to explore growth responses to climatic variability (seasonal temperature and precipitation) over the last century through dendrochronological methods. We developed linear models based on age, climate and previous growth to forecast growth trends up to year 2100 using climatic predictions. Populations were located at the treeline across a latitudinal gradient covering the northern, central and southernmost populations and across an altitudinal gradient at the southern edge of the distribution (treeline, medium and lower elevations). Radial growth was maximal at medium altitude and treeline of the southernmost populations. Temperature was the main factor controlling growth variability along the gradients, although the timing and strength of climatic variables affecting growth shifted with latitude and altitude. Predictive models forecast a general increase in Scots pine growth at treeline across the latitudinal distribution, with southern populations increasing growth up to year 2050, when it stabilizes. The highest responsiveness appeared at central latitude, and moderate growth increase is projected at the northern limit. Contrastingly, the model forecasted growth declines at lowland-southern populations, suggesting an upslope range displacement over the coming decades. Our results give insight into the geographical responses of tree species to climate change and demonstrate the importance of incorporating biogeographical variability into predictive models for an accurate prediction of species dynamics as climate changes. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Meeting the Sustainable Development Goals leads to lower world population growth

PubMed Central

Abel, Guy J.; Barakat, Bilal; KC, Samir; Lutz, Wolfgang

2016-01-01

Here we show the extent to which the expected world population growth could be lowered by successfully implementing the recently agreed-upon Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs include specific quantitative targets on mortality, reproductive health, and education for all girls by 2030, measures that will directly and indirectly affect future demographic trends. Based on a multidimensional model of population dynamics that stratifies national populations by age, sex, and level of education with educational fertility and mortality differentials, we translate these goals into SDG population scenarios, resulting in population sizes between 8.2 and 8.7 billion in 2100. Because these results lie outside the 95% prediction range given by the 2015 United Nations probabilistic population projections, we complement the study with sensitivity analyses of these projections that suggest that those prediction intervals are too narrow because of uncertainty in baseline data, conservative assumptions on correlations, and the possibility of new policies influencing these trends. Although the analysis presented here rests on several assumptions about the implementation of the SDGs and the persistence of educational, fertility, and mortality differentials, it quantitatively illustrates the view that demography is not destiny and that policies can make a decisive difference. In particular, advances in female education and reproductive health can contribute greatly to reducing world population growth. PMID:27911797

Meeting the Sustainable Development Goals leads to lower world population growth.

PubMed

Abel, Guy J; Barakat, Bilal; Kc, Samir; Lutz, Wolfgang

2016-12-13

Here we show the extent to which the expected world population growth could be lowered by successfully implementing the recently agreed-upon Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs include specific quantitative targets on mortality, reproductive health, and education for all girls by 2030, measures that will directly and indirectly affect future demographic trends. Based on a multidimensional model of population dynamics that stratifies national populations by age, sex, and level of education with educational fertility and mortality differentials, we translate these goals into SDG population scenarios, resulting in population sizes between 8.2 and 8.7 billion in 2100. Because these results lie outside the 95% prediction range given by the 2015 United Nations probabilistic population projections, we complement the study with sensitivity analyses of these projections that suggest that those prediction intervals are too narrow because of uncertainty in baseline data, conservative assumptions on correlations, and the possibility of new policies influencing these trends. Although the analysis presented here rests on several assumptions about the implementation of the SDGs and the persistence of educational, fertility, and mortality differentials, it quantitatively illustrates the view that demography is not destiny and that policies can make a decisive difference. In particular, advances in female education and reproductive health can contribute greatly to reducing world population growth.

Understanding the demographic drivers of realized population growth rates.

PubMed

Koons, David N; Arnold, Todd W; Schaub, Michael

2017-10-01

Identifying the demographic parameters (e.g., reproduction, survival, dispersal) that most influence population dynamics can increase conservation effectiveness and enhance ecological understanding. Life table response experiments (LTRE) aim to decompose the effects of change in parameters on past demographic outcomes (e.g., population growth rates). But the vast majority of LTREs and other retrospective population analyses have focused on decomposing asymptotic population growth rates, which do not account for the dynamic interplay between population structure and vital rates that shape realized population growth rates (λt=Nt+1/Nt) in time-varying environments. We provide an empirical means to overcome these shortcomings by merging recently developed "transient life-table response experiments" with integrated population models (IPMs). IPMs allow for the estimation of latent population structure and other demographic parameters that are required for transient LTRE analysis, and Bayesian versions additionally allow for complete error propagation from the estimation of demographic parameters to derivations of realized population growth rates and perturbation analyses of growth rates. By integrating available monitoring data for Lesser Scaup over 60 yr, and conducting transient LTREs on IPM estimates, we found that the contribution of juvenile female survival to long-term variation in realized population growth rates was 1.6 and 3.7 times larger than that of adult female survival and fecundity, respectively. But a persistent long-term decline in fecundity explained 92% of the decline in abundance between 1983 and 2006. In contrast, an improvement in adult female survival drove the modest recovery in Lesser Scaup abundance since 2006, indicating that the most important demographic drivers of Lesser Scaup population dynamics are temporally dynamic. In addition to resolving uncertainty about Lesser Scaup population dynamics, the merger of IPMs with transient LTREs will strengthen our understanding of demography for many species as we aim to conserve biodiversity during an era of non-stationary global change. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Physical growth and development of the malnourished child: contributions from 50 years of research at INCAP.

PubMed

Martorell, Reynaldo

2010-03-01

This paper reviews the main findings and policy implications of 50 years (1949-1999) of research conducted by INCAP on growth and development. Topical areas reviewed include a) maternal size and birthweight and the causes of intrauterine growth retardation (IUGR), b) patterns and causes of postnatal growth retardation, c) the relative importance of genetics and the environment in explaining differences in growth among populations, d) the implications of being small, for both children and adults, e) bone growth and maturation and dental development, f) menarche, and g) methodological contributions such as anthropometric reference data, quality control of data collection, development of risk indicators and use of anthropometry in nutrition surveillance systems. Key contributions to knowledge by INCAP include a) characterization of growth failure and maturational delays as mainly occurring during the intrauterine period and the first 3 years of life b) clarification of the role of small maternal size and of inadequate dietary intakes during pregnancy as major causes of intrauterine growth failure, c) evidence that diarrheal diseases and poor dietary intakes are the principal causes of growth failure in early childhood, d) demonstration that environmental factors related to poverty, and not genetic or racial ancestry, account for most of the differences in growth between populations, e) evidence that growth failure predicts functional impairment in the child as well as in the adult andf) demonstration that nutrition interventions are effective in preventing growth failure and its consequences, if targeted to needy women and young children. INCAP's work has contributed knowledge that has informed and improved policies and programs aimed at overcoming maternal and child undernutrition and promoting optimal growth and development.

Global Population Profile: 2002. International Population Reports

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Christenson, Matthew; McDevitt, Thomas; Stanecki, Karen

2004-01-01

Global Population Profile: 2002 summarizes the most important trends in global population at the dawn of the 21st century. The presentation is organized around four themes: (1) Global Population; (2) Growth, Global Population; (3) Composition, Contraceptive Prevalence in the Developing World; and (4) the AIDS Pandemic in the 21st Century. This…

Projection of Big Cities Waste Management and Cost Based on Economic and Demographic Factors in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prajati, Gita; Padmi, Tri; Benno Rahardyan, dan

2017-12-01

Nowadays, solid waste management continues to be a major challenge in urban areas, especially in developing country. It is triggered by population growth, economic growth, industrialization and urbanization. Indonesia itselfs categorized into developing country. Indonesia's government has many program in order to increase the economic growth. One of them is MP3EI (Masterplan Percepatan dan Perluasan Pembangunan Ekonomi Indonesia. This program should be suppported by right waste management system. If Indonesia's waste management system can't afford the economic growth, it will trigger health and environmental problems. This study's purpose is to develop the socio-economic-environment model that can be used as a basis planning for the facility and cost of waste management systems. In this paper we used the development of Khajuria model test method. This method used six variables, which are GDP, population, population density, illiteracy, school's period and economic growth. The result showed that development of Khajuria test could explained the influence of economic and demographic factors to waste generation, 65.6%. The projection of waste generation shows that Pangkalpinang, Pekanbaru and Serang are the cities with the highest waste generation for the next five years. The number of dump truck and TPS in DKI Jakarata is the highest within another city, which is 39.37%. For the next five years, the waste management system in our study areas cost maximum 0.8% from GDP (Gross Domestic Products).

Gender Bias: Roadblock to Sustainable Development.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jacobson, Jodi L.

1993-01-01

Suggests that the problems of social justice, particularly related to the status of women, are closely associated with worldwide population issues, especially in the developing world. Ties gender bias to poverty, rapid population growth, and environmental degradation in government policy perpetuated cycles. (MCO)

The World Social Situation: Development Challenges at the Outset of a New Century

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Estes, Richard J.

2010-01-01

World social development has arrived at a critical turning point. Economically advanced nations have made significant progress toward meeting the basic needs of their populations; however, the majority of developing countries have not. Problems of rapid population growth, failing economies, famine, environmental devastation, majority-minority…

Demographic, Employment and Development Trends: The Need for Integrated Planning.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Farooq, Ghazi M.; MacKellar, F. Landis

1990-01-01

The authors contend that problems associated with rapid population growth in developing countries must be tackled through comprehensive planning. They discuss impacts of demography on labor supply and demand and migration. Then they propose a practical framework for population and human resource development planning and policy formation. (SK)

Environmental Flow Modeling Challenges for Rapidly Urbanizing Watersheds

EPA Science Inventory

It is a challenge for land use planners and water resource managers to balance water needs that support urban growth and economic development of a growing population and yet maintain ecological flow needs. Urban growth and the associated water resources development in a watershed...

Association between pregnancy complications and small-for-gestational-age birth weight defined by customized fetal growth standard versus a population-based standard.

PubMed

Odibo, Anthony O; Francis, Andre; Cahill, Alison G; Macones, George A; Crane, James P; Gardosi, Jason

2011-03-01

To derive coefficients for developing a customized growth chart for a Mid-Western US population, and to estimate the association between pregnancy outcomes and smallness for gestational age (SGA) defined by the customized growth chart compared with a population-based growth chart for the USA. A retrospective cohort study of an ultrasound database using 54,433 pregnancies meeting inclusion criteria was conducted. Coefficients for customized centiles were derived using 42,277 pregnancies and compared with those obtained from other populations. Two adverse outcome indicators were defined (greater than 7 day stay in the neonatal unit and stillbirth [SB]), and the risk for each outcome was calculated for the groups of pregnancies defined as SGA by the population standard and SGA by the customized standard using 12,456 pregnancies for the validation sample. The growth potential expressed as weight at 40 weeks in this population was 3524 g (standard error: 402 g). In the validation population, 4055 cases of SGA were identified using both population and customized standards. The cases additionally identified as SGA by the customized method had a significantly increased risk of each of the adverse outcome categories. The sensitivity and specificity of those identified as SGA by customized method only for detecting pregnancies at risk for SB was 32.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 27.0-38.8%) and 95.1% (95% CI: 94.7-95.0%) versus 0.8% (95% CI 0.1-2.7%) and 98.0% (95% CI 97.8-98.2%)for those identified by only the population-based method, respectively. SGA defined by customized growth potential is able to identify substantially more pregnancies at a risk for adverse outcome than the currently used national standard for fetal growth.

Connectivity, passability and heterogeneity interact to determine fish population persistence in river networks

PubMed Central

Samia, Yasmine; Lutscher, Frithjof; Hastings, Alan

2015-01-01

The movement of fish in watersheds is frequently inhibited by human-made migration barriers such as dams or culverts. The resulting lack of connectivity of spatial subpopulations is often cited as a cause for observed population decline. We formulate a matrix model for a spatially distributed fish population in a watershed, and we investigate how location and other characteristics of a single movement barrier impact the asymptotic growth rate of the population. We find that while population growth rate often decreases with the introduction of a movement obstacle, it may also increase due to a ‘retention effect’. Furthermore, obstacle mortality greatly affects population growth rate. In practice, different connectivity indices are used to predict population effects of migration barriers, but the relation of these indices to population growth rates in demographic models is often unclear. When comparing our results with the dentritic connectivity index, we see that the index captures neither the retention effect nor the influences of obstacle mortality. We argue that structural indices cannot entirely replace more detailed demographic models to understand questions of persistence and extinction. We advocate the development of novel functional indices and characteristics. PMID:26311313

Connectivity, passability and heterogeneity interact to determine fish population persistence in river networks.

PubMed

Samia, Yasmine; Lutscher, Frithjof; Hastings, Alan

2015-09-06

The movement of fish in watersheds is frequently inhibited by human-made migration barriers such as dams or culverts. The resulting lack of connectivity of spatial subpopulations is often cited as a cause for observed population decline. We formulate a matrix model for a spatially distributed fish population in a watershed, and we investigate how location and other characteristics of a single movement barrier impact the asymptotic growth rate of the population. We find that while population growth rate often decreases with the introduction of a movement obstacle, it may also increase due to a 'retention effect'. Furthermore, obstacle mortality greatly affects population growth rate. In practice, different connectivity indices are used to predict population effects of migration barriers, but the relation of these indices to population growth rates in demographic models is often unclear. When comparing our results with the dentritic connectivity index, we see that the index captures neither the retention effect nor the influences of obstacle mortality. We argue that structural indices cannot entirely replace more detailed demographic models to understand questions of persistence and extinction. We advocate the development of novel functional indices and characteristics. © 2015 The Author(s).

[China's population policies: attempting to "resolve the wrong problem"?].

PubMed

Ratcliffe, J W

1989-03-01

This work argues that international efforts to resolve the population problem have failed primarily because they have been based on misconceptions concerning the definition of the problem and the relationship between population growth and development. The demographic experience of the People's Republic of China since the Revolution is used to illustrate these commonly shared misconceptions. The difficulty of defining the population problem results from differing interpretations of the basic fact that poor population groups tend to have higher fertility rates and faster growth than wealthier population groups. The Western industrial nations maintain that peoples or countries are poor because they have many children; the solution to the problem would require that they be provided access to modern contraception and associated services such as population and family planning education. Many Third World countries argue on the other hand that people have many children because they are poor, a view implying that greater social and economic development will provide the solution. The disagreement as to whether rapid population growth is a cause or a consequence of underdevelopment results in part from viewing overpopulation and underdevelopment as separate and distinct problems. Results of several carefully conducted evaluation studies have demonstrated that very little of the world fertility decline in the late 1960s and early 1970s was attributable to national family planning programs. Research has shown that equitable division of national wealth, education--especially of women, some employment factors such as a lack of opportunities for children, and a reliable social security system are the most powerful determinants of fertility. The studies indicate that fertility declines are induced by models of development that stress widespread social progress rather than provision of contraceptives and associated services. Examination of the Chinese demographic experience suggests that it falls into 5 clearly identifiable stages, beginning with high mortality and even higher fertility until 1957, the Great Leap Forward and its aftermath, the demographic transition from 1969 to 1979, and the stage of renewed growth from 1980 to the present. China has followed 3 radically different development models since 1957. Its experience demonstrates that development policies that result directly in generalized improvements in social conditions in areas such as nutrition, education, employment, and social security are the fundamental determinants of fertility decline. Chinese experience also suggests that when development policies are modified to stress national economic growth at the expense of social improvements, the need for children is also stimulated.

Impact of population growth and population ethics on climate change mitigation policy

PubMed Central

Scovronick, Noah; Budolfson, Mark B.; Dennig, Francis; Fleurbaey, Marc; Siebert, Asher; Socolow, Robert H.; Spears, Dean; Wagner, Fabian

2017-01-01

Future population growth is uncertain and matters for climate policy: higher growth entails more emissions and means more people will be vulnerable to climate-related impacts. We show that how future population is valued importantly determines mitigation decisions. Using the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy model, we explore two approaches to valuing population: a discounted version of total utilitarianism (TU), which considers total wellbeing and is standard in social cost of carbon dioxide (SCC) models, and of average utilitarianism (AU), which ignores population size and sums only each time period’s discounted average wellbeing. Under both approaches, as population increases the SCC increases, but optimal peak temperature decreases. The effect is larger under TU, because it responds to the fact that a larger population means climate change hurts more people: for example, in 2025, assuming the United Nations (UN)-high rather than UN-low population scenario entails an increase in the SCC of 85% under TU vs. 5% under AU. The difference in the SCC between the two population scenarios under TU is comparable to commonly debated decisions regarding time discounting. Additionally, we estimate the avoided mitigation costs implied by plausible reductions in population growth, finding that large near-term savings ($billions annually) occur under TU; savings under AU emerge in the more distant future. These savings are larger than spending shortfalls for human development policies that may lower fertility. Finally, we show that whether lowering population growth entails overall improvements in wellbeing—rather than merely cost savings—again depends on the ethical approach to valuing population. PMID:29087298

Impact of population growth and population ethics on climate change mitigation policy.

PubMed

Scovronick, Noah; Budolfson, Mark B; Dennig, Francis; Fleurbaey, Marc; Siebert, Asher; Socolow, Robert H; Spears, Dean; Wagner, Fabian

2017-11-14

Future population growth is uncertain and matters for climate policy: higher growth entails more emissions and means more people will be vulnerable to climate-related impacts. We show that how future population is valued importantly determines mitigation decisions. Using the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy model, we explore two approaches to valuing population: a discounted version of total utilitarianism (TU), which considers total wellbeing and is standard in social cost of carbon dioxide (SCC) models, and of average utilitarianism (AU), which ignores population size and sums only each time period's discounted average wellbeing. Under both approaches, as population increases the SCC increases, but optimal peak temperature decreases. The effect is larger under TU, because it responds to the fact that a larger population means climate change hurts more people: for example, in 2025, assuming the United Nations (UN)-high rather than UN-low population scenario entails an increase in the SCC of 85% under TU vs. 5% under AU. The difference in the SCC between the two population scenarios under TU is comparable to commonly debated decisions regarding time discounting. Additionally, we estimate the avoided mitigation costs implied by plausible reductions in population growth, finding that large near-term savings ($billions annually) occur under TU; savings under AU emerge in the more distant future. These savings are larger than spending shortfalls for human development policies that may lower fertility. Finally, we show that whether lowering population growth entails overall improvements in wellbeing-rather than merely cost savings-again depends on the ethical approach to valuing population. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Regulation of water resources for sustaining global future socioeconomic development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, J.; SHI, H.; Sivakumar, B.

2016-12-01

With population projections indicating continued growth during this century, socio-economic problems (e.g., water, food, and energy shortages) will be most likely to occur, especially if proper planning, development, and management strategies are not adopted. In the present study, firstly, we explore the vital role of dams in promoting economic growth through analyzing the relationship between dams and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at both global and national scales. Secondly, we analyze the current situation of global water scarcity based on the data representing water resources availability, dam development, and the level of economic development. Third, with comprehensive consideration of population growth as the major driving force, water resources availability as the basic supporting factor, and topography as the important constraint, this study addresses the question of dam development in the future and predicts the locations of future dams around the world.

The future is urban.

PubMed

1992-05-01

Urban centers are growing due to natural increase and the movement of people from rural areas. Urban areas are the traditional centers of trade, science, and culture, but growth over a threshold results in crime, congestion, and pollution. Sustainability is threatened in modern towns that are dependent on other sources for food, fuel, or water. Housing, water, food supplies, and sanitation, communication, and transportation services are threatened in rapidly growing cities. In 1990 45/100 people lived in towns or cities. Hyper-cities have grown in number to 20, of which 14 are in developing countries. 83% of world population increase is expected to occur in cities. In 48 countries with faster population growth cities had growth rates averaging about 6.1% per year, and the urban share of total population averaged 2.8%. In 49 countries with slower population growth, urban growth rates averaged only 3.6% per year, and the urban share of total population averaged about 1.8%. Squatter settlements are endemic to urban areas that are congested and without basic services, limited housing particularly for the poor, and few job opportunities. The number of street children in urban areas has risen. This child population is subjected to low wages, overwork, auto accidents, poor health, and lack of social services. Malnutrition is a more serious issue in urban areas. In the Philippines malnutrition is 3% nationally and 9% in Metro Manila. Rural land reform in the Philippines is no longer a viable solution. In Metro Manila squatters are expected to increase in number to 4 million people by the year 2000, which would be almost 50% of total population. The squatter areas are areas of neglect, decay, and poverty. Cities are viewed as development's "blind alleys."

Are we using the appropriate reference samples to develop juvenile age estimation methods based on bone size? An exploration of growth differences between average children and those who become victims of homicide.

PubMed

Spake, Laure; Cardoso, Hugo F V

2018-01-01

The population on which forensic juvenile skeletal age estimation methods are applied has not been critically considered. Previous research suggests that child victims of homicide tend to be from socioeconomically disadvantaged contexts, and that these contexts impair linear growth. This study investigates whether juvenile skeletal remains examined by forensic anthropologists are short for age compared to their normal healthy peers. Cadaver lengths were obtained from records of autopsies of 1256 individuals, aged birth to eighteen years at death, conducted between 2000 and 2015 in Australia, New Zealand, and the U.S. Growth status of the forensic population, represented by homicide victims, and general population, represented by accident victims, were compared using height for age Z-scores and independent sample t-tests. Cadaver lengths of the accident victims were compared to growth references using one sample t-tests to evaluate whether accident victims reflect the general population. Homicide victims are shorter for age than accident victims in samples from the U.S., but not in Australia and New Zealand. Accident victims are more representative of the general population in Australia and New Zealand. Different results in Australia and New Zealand as opposed to the U.S. may be linked to socioeconomic inequality. These results suggest that physical anthropologists should critically select reference samples when devising forensic juvenile skeletal age estimation methods. Children examined in forensic investigations may be short for age, and thus methods developed on normal healthy children may yield inaccurate results. A healthy reference population may not necessarily constitute an appropriate growth comparison for the forensic anthropology population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling Global Spatial-Temporal Evolution of Society: Hyperbolic Growth and Historical Cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurkina, E. S.

2011-09-01

The global historical processes are under consideration; and laws of global evolution of the world community are studied. The world community is considered as a united complex self-developing and self-organizing system. It supposed that the main driving force of social-economical evolution was the positive feedback between the population size and the level of technological development, which was a cause of growth in blow-up regime both of population and of global economic indexes. The study is supported by the results of mathematical modeling founded on a nonlinear heat equation with a source. Every social-economical epoch characterizes by own specific spatial distributed structures. So the global dynamics of world community during the whole history is investigated throughout the prism of the developing of spatial-temporal structures. The model parameters have been chosen so that 1) total population follows stable hyperbolic growth, consistently with the demographic data; 2) the evolution of the World-System goes through 11 stages corresponding to the main historical epochs.

The Effect of Temperature and Host Plant Resistance on Population Growth of the Soybean Aphid Biotype 1 (Hemiptera: Aphididae).

PubMed

Hough, Ashley R; Nechols, James R; McCornack, Brian P; Margolies, David C; Sandercock, Brett K; Yan, Donglin; Murray, Leigh

2017-02-01

A laboratory experiment was conducted to evaluate direct and indirect effects of temperature on demographic traits and population growth of biotype 1 of the soybean aphid, Aphis glycines Matsumura. Our objectives were to better understand how temperature influences the expression of host plant resistance, quantify the individual and interactive effects of plant resistance and temperature on soybean aphid population growth, and generate thermal constants for predicting temperature-dependent development on both susceptible and resistant soybeans. To assess indirect (plant-mediated) effects, soybean aphids were reared under a range of temperatures (15-30 °C) on soybean seedlings from a line expressing a Rag1 gene for resistance, and life history traits were quantified and compared to those obtained for soybean aphids on a susceptible soybean line. Direct effects of temperature were obtained by comparing relative differences in the magnitude of life-history traits among temperatures on susceptible soybeans. We predicted that temperature and host plant resistance would have a combined, but asymmetrical, effect on soybean aphid fitness and population growth. Results showed that temperature and plant resistance influenced preimaginal development and survival, progeny produced, and adult longevity. There also appeared to be a complex interaction between temperature and plant resistance for survival and developmental rate. Evidence suggested that the level of plant resistance increased at higher, but not lower, temperature. Soybean aphids required about the same number of degree-days to develop on resistant and susceptible plants. Our results will be useful for making predictions of soybean aphid population growth on resistant plants under different seasonal temperatures. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

On European Population, Demographic Developments, Part A [and] Part B, Visual Material.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Verduin, Jan A.; Verduin-Muller, Henriette S.

Demographic developments in Western Europe are examined in this report. It can be used by secondary and college level teachers in preparing lessons or by students themselves. There are three major parts. The first part, "Past Trends," focuses on the increase in European population. The size of that population and its growth over a long…

Resource Trends and Population Policy: A Time for Reassessment. Worldwatch Paper 29.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Lester R.

Population growth and resource depletion are discussed. The need is stressed for policy makers to understand how population projections relate to the carrying capacity of the earth's basic biological systems. Because the earth's resources are limited, it is essential that policy makers in developed and developing nations be able to analyze the…

[Population and crisis. Economic inflexibility or demographic subordination].

PubMed

Morelos, J B

1989-01-01

Much speculation, fact-based and subjective, has centered on the links between population and economic crisis, and between population and progress. In the past, famines directly affected the size and dynamics of population in affected regions, and such cycles inspired theories that regarded subsistence as the adjustment mechanism for demographic regimes. Population has alternatively been viewed as a crucial factor of production and a force for modernization and progress. After World War I and the Great Depression, many economists believed that population growth would be indispensable for renewing economic expansion. The favorable view of population growth in Mexico led to measures to repatriate emigrants, attract immigrants, and improve health conditions. The gross national product grew by around 6.0% annually on average between 1940 and 1960, and the per capita GNP by about 3%. Demographic dynamics acquired momentum by the 1960s, with high growth rates, a young age structure, considerable demographic inertia, and relative predominance of the urban population. Indications began to appear that a primarily economic solution to achieving full development would be unlikely. The polarization of development, distributive insufficiency, distortions in exchange relations for agricultural products, and incorporation of inappropriate technologies were factors decreasing the ability of the economy to respond adequately to population demands. National development was insufficient to meet growing demographic pressures in the labor market, educational system, housing, and urban services. The adjustment programs reduced even further the flexibility of the government to respond to pressures. Expectations for the future have been seriously compromised by the fall of real incomes.

Population and economics.

PubMed

Wright, W

1995-06-01

The first world consists of the developed industrial countries, the second consists of rapidly developing countries, and the third of less developed, largely pre-industrial countries. The economies of most developed countries in recent years have been relatively stagnant. Most people in the developed world therefore assume that the bottom of the business cycle has arrived and that an upturn will soon be forthcoming. With the exception of the USA and Chile, which have been moderately prosperous in the last few years, the bottom has persisted for a very long time. Indeed, the developed world is not caught in a conventional business cycle, but in something quite new and different. The first world is struggling to stay at the top of countries worldwide both economically and politically, but the second world is rapidly catching up. Populations in these latter countries are both better educated and willing to work harder per unit of capital compared to people in the first world. Marketplace forces and the communication highway are increasingly bring about a scenario in which the first and second worlds will be economic peers. Faced with increased competition from the second world and a larger number of countries capable of providing foreign aid to the third world, it should be clear that the first world will turn inward and reduce its annual aid contributions to less developed countries. It is, however, in the first world's interest to promote family planning toward the goal of reduced population growth. Developed countries should insist that a substantial fraction of whatever foreign aid is provided goes toward reducing the rate of population growth. The first priority should be to make contraceptives available and promote their use worldwide. Efforts should then be taken to empower women through educational and other programs. This approach will slow population growth and improve the economic productivity of both men and women. The Third World should also seriously address its own population problems, and stop looking to the day when their enormous populations will overwhelm the first world.

Physical growth of the shuar: Height, Weight, and BMI references for an indigenous amazonian population.

PubMed

Urlacher, Samuel S; Blackwell, Aaron D; Liebert, Melissa A; Madimenos, Felicia C; Cepon-Robins, Tara J; Gildner, Theresa E; Snodgrass, J Josh; Sugiyama, Lawrence S

2016-01-01

Information concerning physical growth among small-scale populations remains limited, yet such data are critical to local health efforts and to foster basic understandings of human life history and variation in childhood development. Using a large dataset and robust modeling methods, this study aims to describe growth from birth to adulthood among the indigenous Shuar of Amazonian Ecuador. Mixed-longitudinal measures of height, weight, and body mass index (BMI) were collected from Shuar participants (n = 2,463; age: 0-29 years). Centile growth curves and tables were created for each anthropometric variable of interest using Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale, and Shape (GAMLSS). Pseudo-velocity and Lambda-Mu-Sigma curves were generated to further investigate Shuar patterns of growth and to facilitate comparison with United States Center for Disease Control and Prevention and multinational World Health Organization growth references. The Shuar are small throughout life and exhibit complex patterns of growth that differ substantially from those of international references. Similar to other Amazonians, Shuar growth in weight compares more favorably to references than growth in height, resulting in BMI curves that approximate international medians. Several additional characteristics of Shuar development are noteworthy, including large observed variation in body size early in life, significant infant growth faltering, extended male growth into adulthood, and a markedly early female pubertal growth spurt in height. Phenotypic plasticity and genetic selection in response to local environmental factors may explain many of these patterns. Providing a detailed reference of growth for the Shuar and other Amazonian populations, this study possesses direct clinical application and affords valuable insight into childhood health and the ecology of human growth. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The Cairo conference: feminists vs. the Pope.

PubMed

Grant, L

1994-07-01

The draft Programme of Action to be discussed at the UN International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) in Cairo is not about population and development, but about women and related agendas, supporting the various family forms (which promote population growth), and incalculable amounts of funding to increase the breadth of goals (e.g., more funding to improve the quality of life in cities). It does little to link those goals with global population growth. The US Department of State supports the militant feminists' agenda, which is for money to be directed to women's advancement activities rather than to direct population programs. Their reasoning is that women will achieve the socially desirable fertility level if they have unimpeded freedom of choice. The Vatican, which opposes birth control and abortion, is chastising the women's groups and the population movement. The US government has shifted its position to accommodate the militant feminists. It is not listening to bioscientists, demographers, and others who might have mellowed the advocacy approach. The draft Programme of Action has no population goals, which are needed to operate a population program. The US government should call for meeting unmet needs for contraception, expansion of family planning facilities and services in developing countries, and reinstatement of goals in the international population dialogue. It should also continue efforts to persuade developing country leaders of the importance of the population issue and of incentives and disincentives. Its first priority should be population, followed by development assistance to maternal and child health services coordinated with family planning services.

Some implications of changing patterns of mineral consumption

USGS Publications Warehouse

Menzie, W. David; DeYoung,, John H.; Steblez, Walter G.

2003-01-01

DeYoung and Menzie (1999) examined the relations among population, Gross Domestic Product, and mineral consumption (aluminum, cement, copper, and salt) for Japan, Korea, and the United States between 1965 and 1995. They noted the extremely rapid growth of consumption in Korea between 1975 and 1995. Concomitantly, Korea's population growth rate declined. This paper extends that earlier work by examining patterns of consumption of these same commodities in the twenty most populous countries for the period 1970 through 1995. Developed countries, such as France, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States, show patterns of consumption that are stable (cement, copper, and salt) or grow slowly (aluminum). Some developing countries, including China, Thailand, and Turkey, show more rapid growth of consumption, especially of cement, copper, and aluminum. These changing patterns of mineral consumption in developing countries have important implications -- if they continue, there could be major increases in world mineral consumption and major increases in environmental residuals from mineral production and use. If China reaches the level of consumption of copper of developed countries, world consumption could reach levels more than twice that of 1995 (10.5 million tons).

Decades of urban growth and development on the Asian megadeltas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Small, Christopher; Sousa, Daniel; Yetman, Gregory; Elvidge, Christopher; MacManus, Kytt

2018-06-01

The current and ongoing expansion of urban areas worldwide represents the largest mass migration in human history. It is well known that the world's coastal zones are associated with large and growing concentrations of population, urban development and economic activity. Among coastal environments, deltas have long been recognized for both benefits and hazards. This is particularly true on the Asian megadeltas, where the majority of the world's deltaic populations reside. Current trends in urban migration, combined with demographic momentum suggest that the already large populations on the Asian megadeltas will continue to grow. In this study, we combine recently released gridded population density (circa 2010) with a newly developed night light change product (1992 to 2012) and a digital elevation model to quantify the spatial distribution of population and development on the nine Asian megadeltas. Bivariate distributions of population as functions of elevation and coastal proximity quantify potential exposure of deltaic populations to flood and coastal hazards. Comparison of these distributions for the Asian megadeltas show very different patterns of habitation with peak population elevations ranging from 2 to 11 m above sea level over a wide range of coastal proximities. Over all nine megadeltas, over 174 million people reside below a peak population elevation of 7 m. Changes in the spatial extent of anthropogenic night light from 1992 to 2012 show widely varying extents and changes of lighted urban development. All of the deltas except the Indus show the greatest increases in night light brightness occurring at elevations <10 m. At global and continental scales, growth of settlements of all sizes takes the form of evolving spatial networks of development. Spatial networks of lighted urban development in Asia show power law scaling properties consistent with other continents, but much higher rates of growth. The three largest networks of development in China all occur on deltas and adjacent lowlands, and are growing faster than the rest of the urban network in China. Since 2000, the Huanghe Delta + North China Plain urban network has surpassed the Japanese urban network in size and may soon connect with the Changjiang Delta + Yangtze River urban network to form the largest conurbation in Asia.

Consumers' Perspectives on Water Issues: Directions for Educational Campaigns.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DeLorme, Denise E.; Hagen, Scott C.; Stout, I. Jack

2003-01-01

Explores the relationship between population growth, development, and water resources to glean insight for environmental education campaigns. Reports high awareness and moderate concern about rapid growth and development, dissatisfaction with water resource quantity and quality, and varied water management strategies among consumers. (Contains 37…

Post-term growth and cognitive development at 5 years of age in preterm children: Evidence from a prospective population-based cohort.

PubMed

Simon, Laure; Nusinovici, Simon; Flamant, Cyril; Cariou, Bertrand; Rouger, Valérie; Gascoin, Géraldine; Darmaun, Dominique; Rozé, Jean-Christophe; Hanf, Matthieu

2017-01-01

While the effects of growth from birth to expected term on the subsequent development of preterm children has attracted plentiful attention, less is known about the effects of post-term growth. We aimed to delineate distinct patterns of post-term growth and to determine their association with the cognitive development of preterm children. Data from a prospective population-based cohort of 3,850 surviving infants born at less than 35 weeks of gestational age were used. Growth was assessed as the Body Mass Index (BMI) Z-scores at 3, 9, 18, 24, 36, 48, and 60 months. Cognitive development at five years of age was evaluated by the Global School Adaptation score (GSA). Latent class analysis was implemented to identify distinct growth patterns and logistic regressions based on propensity matching were used to evaluate the relationship between identified growth trajectories and cognitive development. Four patterns of post-term growth were identified: a normal group with a Z-score consistently around zero during childhood (n = 2,469; 64%); a group with an early rapid rise in the BMI Z-score, but only up to 2 years of age (n = 195; 5%); a group with a slow yet steady rise in the BMI Z-score during childhood (n = 510; 13%); and a group with a negative Z-score growth until 3 years of age (n = 676; 18%). The group with a slow yet steady rise in the BMI Z-score was significantly associated with low GSA scores. Our findings indicate heterogeneous post-term growth of preterm children, with potential for association with their cognitive development.

Population dynamics and rural poverty.

PubMed

Fong, M S

1985-01-01

An overview of the relationship between demographic factors and rural poverty in developing countries is presented. The author examines both the micro- and macro-level perspectives of this relationship and the determinants and consequences of population growth. The author notes the prospects for a rapid increase in the rural labor force and considers its implications for the agricultural production structure and the need for institutional change. Consideration is also given to the continuing demand for high fertility at the family level and the role of infant and child mortality in the poverty cycle. "The paper concludes by drawing attention to the need for developing the mechanism for reconciliation of social and individual optima with respect to family size and population growth." The need for rural development projects that take demographic factors into account is stressed as is the need for effective population programs. (summary in FRE, ITA) excerpt

Singapore.

PubMed

1982-09-01

Attention in this discussion of Singapore is directed to the following: history of the country's demographic situation; government's overall approach to population problems; population data systems and development planning; institutional arrangements for the integration of population within development planning; government's view of the importance of population policy in achieving development objectives; population size, growth and natural increase; morbidity and mortality; fertility; international migration; and spatial distribution. The Republic of Singapore has experienced high population growth rates for some time, with its population of 1.02 million in 1950 increasing to an estimated 2.39 million in 1980. In recent years the rate has declined significantly, decreasing from nearly 5% per year in the early 1950s to 2.8 in 1960-65 and 1.5 in 1970-75. At the present growth rate of about 1.2% per annum, and anticipating the further declines that have been projected for 1995-2000, the population of Singapore is expected to reach about 2.97 million by the end of this century. The government considers the stabilization of the country's population to be 1 of its important objectives. In 1961 population growth was recognized as a serious problem. Singapore has a long history of census taking, having recently conducted its 11th decennial census. Because of the rapid decline in fertility in recent years, the government perceives the nation's current rates of natural increase and fertility as satisfactory, neither constraining development nor inhibiting economic growth. Yet, the government has established as a social norm a goal of a 2 child family and supports policies that discourage early marriage and childbearing at very young ages. The government maintains that Singapore's current rate of population growth is satisfactory, which is a recent change of position that is based on the rapid decline in fertility in the 1960s and 1970s. The crude death rate declined from about 10.6/1000 in 1950-55 to 7.1 in 1960-65 and to 5.1 in both 1970-75 and 1975-80, according to UN estimates. The average life expectancy at birth for both sexes has been improving. To reduce the need for high cost hospital services, the government has recently given more attention to promotive and preventive medicine. The crude birthrate, which was estimated to be around 44 births/1000 in 1950-55, has declined in the past several decades, decreasing to 17.2/1000 in 1975-80 according to UN estimates. The government regards the current level of fertility as satisfactory and has implemented incentive and disincentive schemes to maintain low rates. The government considers levels and trends of immigration to be not significant and satisfactory. The government regards the spatial distribution of the population to be appropriate and has no policies of intervention concerning either internal migration or the rural and urban configuration of settlement.

[Population pressure: a factor of political destabilization].

PubMed

Tallon, F

1993-04-01

Political stability throughout the world appears to be greater in countries with slowly growing populations than in those with rapid growth. Population is not the only influence on political stability, however. The relationship between political stability and development is strong. The rich countries with the slowest growth are the most stable, while poor developing countries with rapid growth suffer from chronic instability. Demographic pressure and density are not the same thing and must be distinguished. A fragile environment like that of the Sahel will experience demographic pressure despite low density. Japan has a greater population density than Rwanda and little cultivable land, but the population has a high standard of living. demographic pressure is not comparable in Japan and Rwanda because Japan has slow population growth and stable democratic political institutions. The rate of growth seems to be a more important element in destabilization than density. Rapid growth creates enormous political tensions especially when profound ethnic divisions exist, and it complicates problems of government by encouraging rapid urbanization. The unbalanced age structures resulting from rapid growth hinder the satisfaction of employment, educational, and health care needs for the ever-increasing masses of young people. 49% of Rwanda's population is under 15 and 66% is under 25. Rwanda is already densely populated, with around 300 inhabitants/sq km, and its population is projected to double in 20 years. 95% of the population is dependent on agriculture, but by 1988 the average landholding per family was only 1.25 hectares and 58% of families did not grown sufficient food for household needs. Further reduction in the size of holdings or a growing landless population will have multiple consequences. Urban migration will inevitably increase, bringing with it all the problems so evident in other poor countries where the process is more advanced than in Rwanda. Chaotic urbanization is in itself a destabilizing force. The phenomenon of potential political destabilization due to demographic pressure had been analyzed according to different criteria. Unconstitutional sudden changes of government, incomplete civil and political liberties, violent conflicts between ethnic and other subgroups, and the frustrated aspirations of large numbers of young persons are among possible indicators of political instability. A report by the Population Crisis committee which evaluated these indicators in different countries placed Rwanda 39th among 120 countries for potential destabilization. But the period of observation avoided the 1973 disturbances and the 1990 war in Rwanda. The results would undoubtedly be considerably less favorable if the period of observation extended to the present.

Importance of the habitat choice behavior assumed when modeling the effects of food and temperature on fish populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wildhaber, Mark L.; Lamberson, Peter J.

2004-01-01

Various mechanisms of habitat choice in fishes based on food and/or temperature have been proposed: optimal foraging for food alone; behavioral thermoregulation for temperature alone; and behavioral energetics and discounted matching for food and temperature combined. Along with development of habitat choice mechanisms, there has been a major push to develop and apply to fish populations individual-based models that incorporate various forms of these mechanisms. However, it is not known how the wide variation in observed and hypothesized mechanisms of fish habitat choice could alter fish population predictions (e.g. growth, size distributions, etc.). We used spatially explicit, individual-based modeling to compare predicted fish populations using different submodels of patch choice behavior under various food and temperature distributions. We compared predicted growth, temperature experience, food consumption, and final spatial distribution using the different models. Our results demonstrated that the habitat choice mechanism assumed in fish population modeling simulations was critical to predictions of fish distribution and growth rates. Hence, resource managers who use modeling results to predict fish population trends should be very aware of and understand the underlying patch choice mechanisms used in their models to assure that those mechanisms correctly represent the fish populations being modeled.

Population: fiction and fact.

PubMed

1979-09-01

This article was written to refute some common misunderstandings regarding worldwide population levels and worldwide nutrition levels. The world food supply is able to keep pace with high population growth levels. Worl food production currently meets world need; the problem is a distribution system which allocates food only to those who can pay rather than to those who need it. In many developing countries, the best agricultural lands are reserved for commercial crops rather than for subsistence crops. The U.S. food aid program does not help the most needy nations generally. The rate of world population growth is already slowing down. The desire for large families in developing countries is very often a realistic reaction to the prevailing economic system. Family planning programs will succeed. They will succeed even better in countries where general development planning is undertaken concurrently with family planning. Environmental problems are attributable to the consumption explosion in the rich countries rather than to the population explosion in the poor countries.

Assessment of Population Status for a White Sucker (Catostomus commersoni) Population Exposed to Bleached Kraft Pulp Mill Effluent

EPA Science Inventory

A predictive model was developed to translate changes in the fecundity and the age structure of a breeding population of white sucker (Catostomus commersoni) collected in the field to alterations in population growth rate. Application of this density dependent population ...

Bucharest: poverty or population?

PubMed

1974-01-01

The controversy that occurred in Bucharest over the World Population Plan of Action had not been totally anticipated. Prior to the Conference, there appeared to be a general consensus that population growth was the crucial issue although it was recognized that population growth had to be considered in the context of socioeconomic and cultural development. What developed at Bucharest was a clear division between the developed countries who favored population control and implementation of family planning programs by 1986 and the developing countries who rejected the idea of population control unless it was associated with the redistribution of world resources. The reality of people having large families because they are poor cannot be denied, but, simultaneously, the problem of increasing numbers and their impact on the quality of life, nutrition, housing, education, and employment must be faced. Since affluent countries cannot be relied upon concerning the redistribution of their wealth, developing countries can bring about some change by redistributing the wealth within their countries. Adult literacy programs have been identified as a means to promote socioeconomic development, but these programs will only prove successful if they involve the adults in the process of learning by means of problem solving and cause them to reflect on their socioeconomic situation with the result of reinvolving themselves in society in order to change it.

Bangladesh.

PubMed

1987-04-01

The population of Bangladesh was 104 million in 1986, with an annual growth rate of 2.6%. The country's infant mortality rate is 12.1%, and life expectancy stands at 54 years. The literacy rate is 29%. The work force of 34.1 million is distributed among agriculture (74%), industry (11%), and services (15%). The gross domestic product (GDP) is US$15.3 billion, with a real annual growth rate of 3.6% and a per capita GDP of $151. As one of the world's poorest and most densely populated countries, Bangladesh must struggle to produce domestically and import enough food to feed its rapidly increasing population. The country's transportation, communications, and power infrastructure is relatively poorly developed. Since 1971, an emphasis has been placed on developing new industrial capacity and rehabilitating the economy. The statist economic model, including nationalization of the key jute industry, had resulted in inefficiency and economic stagnation. At present, rapid population growth, inefficiency in the public sector, and restricted natural resources and capital continue to impede economic development. On the other hand, economic policies aimed at encouraging private enterprise and investment, denationalizing public industries, reinstating budgetary discipline, and mobilizing domestic resources are beginning to have an impact. Underemployment remains a serious problem, and there are growing concerns regarding the ability of the agricultural sector to absorb additional manpower. To reach the goal of 10% annual industrial growth for the 1986-89 period, the government is aggressively seeking foreign investment.

Rates of urbanisation and the resiliency of air and water quality.

PubMed

Duh, Jiunn-Der; Shandas, Vivek; Chang, Heejun; George, Linda A

2008-08-01

Global human population and urban development are increasing at unprecedented rates and creating tremendous stress on local, regional, and global air and water quality. However, little is known about how urban areas vary in their capacity to address effectively air and water quality impacts associated to urban development. There exists a need to better understanding the factors that mediate the interactions between urbanisation and variations of environmental quality. By synthesizing literatures on the relationship between urban development and air and water quality, we assess the amount of scholarship for each of these cities, characterize population growth rates in one hundred of the largest global cities, and link growth trends to changes in air and water quality. Our results suggest that, while there is a growing literature linking urbanisation and environmental quality, some regions of the globe are better represented than others, and that these trends are consistent with our characterization of population growth rates. In addition, the comparison between population growth rates and air and water quality suggest that multiple factors affect the environmental quality, and that approaching rates of urbanisation through the lens of 'resiliency' can be an effective integrative concept for studying the capacity of urban areas to respond to rapid rates of change. Based on these results we offer a framework for systematically assessing changes in air and water quality in megacities.

New biomarkers of post-settlement growth in the sea urchin Strongylocentrotus purpuratus.

PubMed

Fadl, Alyaa Elsaid Abdelaziz; Mahfouz, Magdy Elsayed; El-Gamal, Mona Mabrouk Taha; Heyland, Andreas

2017-10-01

Some sea urchins, including the purple sea urchin Strongylocentrotus purpuratus, have been successfully used in aquaculture, but their slow growth and late reproduction are challenging to overcome when developing efficient aquaculture production techniques. S. purpuratus develops via an indirect life history that is characterized by a drastic settlement process at the end of a larval period that lasts for several weeks. During this transition, the bilateral larva is transformed into a pentaradial juvenile, which will start feeding and growing in the benthic habitat. Due to predation and other ecological factors, settlement is typically associated with high mortality rates in juvenile populations. Additionally, juveniles require several days to develop a functional mouth and digestive system. During this perimetamorphic period, juveniles use up larval resources until they are capable to digest adult food. Mechanisms underlying the onset of juvenile feeding and metabolism have implications for the recruitment of natural populations as well as aquaculture and are relatively poorly understood in S. purpuratus . The insulin/insulin-like growth factor signalling (IIS)/Target of Rapamycin (TOR) pathway (IIS/TOR) is well conserved among animal phyla and regulates physiological and developmental functions, such as growth, reproduction, aging and nutritional status. We analyzed the expression of FoxO, TOR, and ILPs in post-settlement juveniles in conjunction with their early growth trajectories. We also tested how pre-settlement starvation affected post-settlement expression of IIS. We found that FoxO provides a useful molecular marker in early juveniles as its expression is strongly correlated with juvenile growth. We also found that pre-settlement starvation affects juvenile growth trajectories as well as IIS. Our findings provide preliminary insights into the mechanisms underlying post-settlement growth and metabolism in S. purpuratus . They also have important implications for sea urchin aquaculture, as they show that pre-settlement nutrient environment significantly affects both early growth trajectories and gene expression. This information can be used to develop new biomarkers for juvenile health in sea urchin population ecology and aquaculture aquaculture.

Current demographics suggest future energy supplies will be inadequate to slow human population growth.

PubMed

DeLong, John P; Burger, Oskar; Hamilton, Marcus J

2010-10-05

Influential demographic projections suggest that the global human population will stabilize at about 9-10 billion people by mid-century. These projections rest on two fundamental assumptions. The first is that the energy needed to fuel development and the associated decline in fertility will keep pace with energy demand far into the future. The second is that the demographic transition is irreversible such that once countries start down the path to lower fertility they cannot reverse to higher fertility. Both of these assumptions are problematic and may have an effect on population projections. Here we examine these assumptions explicitly. Specifically, given the theoretical and empirical relation between energy-use and population growth rates, we ask how the availability of energy is likely to affect population growth through 2050. Using a cross-country data set, we show that human population growth rates are negatively related to per-capita energy consumption, with zero growth occurring at ∼13 kW, suggesting that the global human population will stop growing only if individuals have access to this amount of power. Further, we find that current projected future energy supply rates are far below the supply needed to fuel a global demographic transition to zero growth, suggesting that the predicted leveling-off of the global population by mid-century is unlikely to occur, in the absence of a transition to an alternative energy source. Direct consideration of the energetic constraints underlying the demographic transition results in a qualitatively different population projection than produced when the energetic constraints are ignored. We suggest that energetic constraints be incorporated into future population projections.

Population growth and development of the psocid Liposcelis rufa (Psocoptera: Liposcelididae) at constant temperatures and relative humidities.

PubMed

Gautam, S G; Opit, G P; Giles, K L

2010-10-01

We investigated the effects of eight temperatures (22.5, 25.0, 27.5, 30.0, 32.5, 35.0, 37.5, and 40.0 degrees C) and four relative humidities (43, 55, 63, and 75%) on population growth and development of the psocid Liposcelis rufa Broadhead (Psocoptera: Liposcelididae). L. rufa did not survive at 43% RH, at all temperatures tested; at 55% RH, at the highest four temperatures; and at 63% RH and 40.0 degrees C. The greatest population growth was recorded at 35.0 degrees C and 75% RH (73-fold growth). At 40.0 degrees C, L. rufa populations declined or barely grew. L. rufa males have two to four nymphal instars, and the percentages of males with two, three, and four instars were 31, 54, and 15%, respectively. Female L. rufa have two to five instars, and the percentages of females with two, three, four, and five instars were 2, 44, 42, and 12%, respectively. The life cycle was shorter for males than females. We developed temperature-dependent developmental equations for male and female eggs, individual nymphal, combined nymphal, and combined immature stages. The ability of L. rufa to reproduce at a relative humidity of 55% and temperatures of 22.5-30.0 degrees C and at relative humidities of 63-75% and temperatures of 22.5-37.5 degrees C, in addition to being able to survive at 40.0 degrees C, suggests that this species would be expected to have a broader distribution than other Liposcelis species. These data provide a better understanding of L. rufa population dynamics and can be used to help develop effective management strategies for this psocid.

Urbanization and depopulation in the Alps.

PubMed

Batzing, W; Perlik, M; Dekleva, M

1996-11-01

Demographic developments in the European Alpine region are analyzed over the period 1870-1990. The region is defined as including parts of Germany, France, Italy, Liechtenstein, Austria, Switzerland, and Slovenia. "Studies of growth, stagnation, decline, commune size, and altitude in almost 6,000 communes are presented on three colored maps.... It is apparent that two highly divergent processes are at work and, accordingly, statistical mean values reveal little of importance. Approximately one-half of Alpine Europe is undergoing general economic and demographic growth and has experienced significant increase in population since the end of the agricultural era. This development has taken place primarily in low-lying valleys and basins and in areas bordering the Alps that have good access to transport routes. Tourism is not as widespread as generally assumed and is usually characterized by a punctate pattern. Only in the western part of the Eastern Alps does tourism account for widespread population growth at higher altitudes; elsewhere the Alps have not been affected by modern development and the economy and population are declining, with some areas in danger of becoming completely abandoned. The results challenge the earlier concept of the Alps as a rural region, once populated by peasants, where tourism now plays a major role." (EXCERPT)

Population and development.

PubMed

Okita, S

1989-03-01

This speech on the life and work of Rafael Salas, who had been the first executive director of the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) and who contributed immensely to global awareness of population as a vital issue, inaugurated the Rafael M. Salas Lecture Series at the UN. Salas was concerned with individual rights and socioeconomic development while maintaining a balance between population and the environment. He built a large multinational assistance program for population activities and increased funding from $2.5 million in 1969 to $175 million to support 2500 projects in 130 developing countries. He organized both the 1974 World Population Conference and the 1984 International Conference on Population. In developing countries malnutrition and poverty are intertwined, lowering productivity and making people prone to diseases. Infant and child mortality rises with the malnutrition of mothers, therefore campaigns modelled after the postwar Japanese efforts are needed to improve nutrition, to train dietitians, and to introduce school lunch programs. Population stabilization could also be achieved in developing countries by raising income levels, although in Latin American countries birth rates have stayed the same despite increasing income. Direct measures are effective in reducing the birth rate: primary school education, increased income, improved nutrition, decline in infant mortality, higher status of women, and decisive governmental population policy. The Club of Rome report The Limits to Growth predicted that sometime in the 21st century a sudden decline in both population and industrial capacity will be reached at the present growth trends.

Clinical growth charts for pre-school children.

PubMed

Al-Amoud, Maysoon M; Al-Mazrou, Yagob Y; El-Gizouli, Sirrag E; Khoja, Tawfik A; Al-Turki, Khalid A

2004-11-01

Growth standards are indicators for normal growth of the children and growth charts are important tools for their growth monitoring. Children from different populations are different in their growth pattern, it is important to create national standards for the growth of children in each population to develop local growth charts, and since these were not available in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), the aim of this study was to construct national growth standards and to develop growth charts for 0-5-years Saudi children. A cross-sectional study following World Health Organization (WHO) criteria in determining sample size was adopted, where by 24000 children from 5 regions in the KSA were selected during the period 1992 to 1995 to be the desired sample. One hundred and two Primary Health Care centers (PHCCs) were selected randomly from the 5 regions, from where the sample was drawn, and a special questionnaire was designed. Weight, height and head circumference were measured by standard procedures. The total number of children examined was 23821 (11913 boys and 11908 girls). Saudi (0-5-years) boys weight and height for age measurements were significantly different from girls. The same difference was found between urban and rural boys and girls and between boys and girls from the different regions of the country (p<0.05). These national standards derived from this study were used to develop national growth charts that are currently utilized to monitor growth in all Saudi health institutes.

The population problem and policy in Mainland China 1949-1980: a demographic and anthropological observation.

PubMed

Yin, C C

1981-12-01

This research focuses on Mainland China's population problems and the formation of population policy. It attempts to analyze the relationships between economy and population and between modernization and Communist party decisionmaking. The second hand data used from 4 sources: related newspapers, magazines, official reports and documents from Mainland China; some related Western studies; some Communist China watchers' reports and studies from Hong Kong and the Republic of China; and some related studies of demographic, social, and economic theory. The analysis covers: population growth the Mainland China; sociocultural background of population growth; Communist China's point of view of population problems; Communist China's economy and population problems; and a diachronic approach to population policy. The August 1979 article "For the Realization of the Four Modernizations" suggests that Communist China faces a crisis. First, from the macroeconomic viewpoint Marxian ideology must be reconciled with Malthus' theory. As a result of the increasingly ambitious mainlandwide goals of trimming population growth, the Communit regime set a goal of lowering the natural population growth rate to 0.5% by 1985 and zero population growth at 2000. It also established an incentive/disincentive policy to reach the goal of a 1-child family. In the sphere of economic development, they turn to a nonsocialist model which seems to be a revision back to Liu Shao-chi's line. Finally, it seems at this time that the top officianls realize the need to raise the standard of living for the people. Yet, the question remains as to how long this policy can survive. 30 years after Mainland China became the biggest human laboratory for Communism the Communists have failed to solve most of the salient problems, including educational and scientific development, cultural development, socioeconomic development, and the population problem. They also have created many unprecedented problems, including a low standard of living and a low per capita income, a lack of incentive among the working people, and numerous power struggles and economic policy vacillations. To carry out the 4 modernizations Mainland China is giving up the Maoist and Marxist line. The policy is shifting to revisionism. It is also necessary to reconcile with the Malthusian theory in order to carry out the birth control campaign. The population is 80% rural. More than 50% of the total populations is in the 0-21 age group. The Communist Party always attempts political solutions to solve the population problem, and it now uses the reward and penalty system. The regime attempts to create the image that the 1-child family policy will decide the success or failure of the 4 modernizations. It is believed that the success or failure of the 4 modernizations depends upon the reformation of the regime's institution as a whole rather than a single policy -- the 1-child family.

[Population planning unit is developed in the Congo].

PubMed

Amouali, C; Poukouta, P

1989-01-01

This article is an update on the demographic situation in the Congo and the institutionalization of a population unit in The Ministry of Plan. From 1974-84 the population increased 44.9% going from 1,319,790 to 1,912,429 at a growth rate of 3.48% and possibly doubling in 20 years (2005). However, the major transformation has been the growth of the urban areas over the rural. From 1974-84 the rural population went from 819,430 to 934,849 while the urban population went from 500,360 in 1974 to 977,580 in 1984. The growth rate of the rural areas was 1.22% while that for the urban was 6.38% Infant mortality rate stands at 73/1000; life expectancy is 46.9 for men and 50.0 for women. The average fertility rate is 6. This demographic situation with the inherent problems of the rapidly growing urbanization of the 2 principal cities, Brazzaville and Pointe-Noire, has led to problems in health services and high morbidity and mortality rates. The Government has created 3 national organizations to coordinate population activities in the country: 1) The National Council on Population, (1988) an interministerial council, presided over by the Prime Minister, that defines and formulates national population policies as integral components to the country's socioeconomic development plans; 2) The National Commission on Population (CONAPO), headed by the Minister of Plan, Finance and Economics as the administrative organ of The National Council on Population, and responsible for the technical and evaluation activities of The National Council on Population; and 3) The Population Planning Unit headed by the Director of Human Resources in the Ministry of Plan responsible for identifying, formulating and evaluating population policies in the Congo. These institutions were created as a result of the 1974 Bucharest Conference and the 1984 Arusha Conference were population and development were considered integral components, and of results of 2 censuses and population surveys highlighting the demographic situation in the Congo.

Iowa Population Trends.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tait, John L.; Johnson, Arthur H.

The trends in population distribution and the composition of Iowa's population are reported in this document in order to provide the leaders and citizens of Iowa with information to assist them in making decisions relating to growth and development. Birth and death rates, rural and urban residence, population by race, and age structure are…

Economic development and coastal ecosystem change in China

PubMed Central

He, Qiang; Bertness, Mark D.; Bruno, John F.; Li, Bo; Chen, Guoqian; Coverdale, Tyler C.; Altieri, Andrew H.; Bai, Junhong; Sun, Tao; Pennings, Steven C.; Liu, Jianguo; Ehrlich, Paul R.; Cui, Baoshan

2014-01-01

Despite their value, coastal ecosystems are globally threatened by anthropogenic impacts, yet how these impacts are driven by economic development is not well understood. We compiled a multifaceted dataset to quantify coastal trends and examine the role of economic growth in China's coastal degradation since the 1950s. Although China's coastal population growth did not change following the 1978 economic reforms, its coastal economy increased by orders of magnitude. All 15 coastal human impacts examined increased over time, especially after the reforms. Econometric analysis revealed positive relationships between most impacts and GDP across temporal and spatial scales, often lacking dropping thresholds. These relationships generally held when influences of population growth were addressed by analyzing per capita impacts, and when population density was included as explanatory variables. Historical trends in physical and biotic indicators showed that China's coastal ecosystems changed little or slowly between the 1950s and 1978, but have degraded at accelerated rates since 1978. Thus economic growth has been the cause of accelerating human damage to China's coastal ecosystems. China's GDP per capita remains very low. Without strict conservation efforts, continuing economic growth will further degrade China's coastal ecosystems. PMID:25104138

[Latin America: reasons for hope].

PubMed

Orrego, F

1993-08-01

According to official figures, Latin America is almost an empty continent. The low population density, the decrease in population growth, the low use of the land and the improvement in the availability of food, health and education indexes, point to the fact that restrictive politics in population growth are not of interest to this region. On the contrary, an increase in population density is important in the development of this new civilization. In order to avoid the defects found in some industrialized countries, the anthropocetrism has to be linked to reality which is transcendent and has God as his foundation.

Game dynamic model for yeast development.

PubMed

Huang, Yuanyuan; Wu, Zhijun

2012-07-01

Game theoretic models, along with replicator equations, have been applied successfully to the study of evolution of populations of competing species, including the growth of a population, the reaching of the population to an equilibrium state, and the evolutionary stability of the state. In this paper, we analyze a game model proposed by Gore et al. (Nature 456:253-256, 2009) in their recent study on the co-development of two mixed yeast strains. We examine the mathematical properties of this model with varying experimental parameters. We simulate the growths of the yeast strains and compare them with the experimental results. We also compute and analyze the equilibrium state of the system and prove that it is asymptotically and evolutionarily stable.

Effect of Methyl Bromide on Mycorrhizae and Growth of Sweetgum Seedlings

Treesearch

T. H. Filer; E. R. Toole

1968-01-01

Fumigation of nursery beds with methyl bromide improved sweetgum, growth by reducing the population of soil-inhabiting pathogens . Although mycorrhizal fungi were reduced, sufficient inoculum survived for rapid mycorrhizal development

Sectoral output, energy use, and CO2 emission in middle-income countries.

PubMed

Sohag, Kazi; Al Mamun, Md; Uddin, Gazi Salah; Ahmed, Ali M

2017-04-01

Middle-income countries are currently undergoing massive structural changes towards more industrialized economies. In this paper, we carefully examine the impact of these transformations on the environmental quality of middle-income countries. Specifically, we examine the role of sector value addition to GDP on CO 2 emission nexus for middle-income economies controlling for the effects of population growth, energy use, and trade openness. Using recently developed panel methods that consider cross-sectional dependence and allow for heterogeneous slope coefficients, we show that energy use and growth of industrial and service sectors positively explain CO 2 emissions in middle-income economies. We also find that population growth is insignificantly associated with CO 2 emission. Hence, our paper provides a solid ground for developing a sustainable and pro-growth policy for middle-income countries.

Population crisis in the Arab world: an alternative view.

PubMed

Bean, L L

1981-01-01

Aspects of population policy that are relevant to the Arab world are examined. The topics considered include the relationship between population growth and socioeconomic development in the region, the diversity in conditions among countries, political factors, and legislation designed to have a demographic impact. The need for each country to develop a policy appropriate to its own perceived needs is stressed.

Economic development and population policy in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Khan, M R

1984-09-01

This paper deals with Bangladesh's growth rate and the policy implications for its economy. Despite its obvious influence on the economy, population has never been integrated as an endogenous variable in any planning model. Development planning is mostly supported by donor agencies, involving little micro-level planning and practically no trickle-down effect. This paper examines the interaction of population and other development variables in the country's planning process. Much of the rural population consists of landless farmers share croppers, so that the land ownership pattern contributes to low productivity. Population increase is making the rural masses even poorer. This process is further compounded by increasing foreign aid dependence, adverse terms of trade in the international market, low savings and investments, and the rural sector's worsening terms of trade. During 1950-1970 real per capita gross domestic product (GDP) increased only at a rate of 1% per annum and during 1950-1970 real growth of GDP fell behind the population growth rate. A cost benefit analysis of fertility reduction is needed. The cost benefit ratio of most countries varies between 1:10 to 1:30; for Bangladesh it is 1:16. Macro-model studies indicate that the higher the fertility reduction and shorter the period of required decline, the higher will be the benefits in terms of gains in per capita income. There is, however, a contradiction between national and household interests. The latter's decision to have more children has a negative spillover effect, which nullifies the gains of the community. The national family planning program suffered a serious setback during and after the liberation of Bangladesh, mainly due to lack of administrative leadership and support. In order for the population growth rate to be checked and to increase the quality of life for the entire population, the family planning program must be revitalized by mobilizing the entire government machinery and involving the people at the grass roots level.

An evaluation of density-dependent and density-independent influences on population growth rates in Weddell seals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rotella, J.J.; Link, W.A.; Nichols, J.D.; Hadley, G.L.; Garrott, R.A.; Proffitt, K.M.

2009-01-01

Much of the existing literature that evaluates the roles of density-dependent and density-independent factors on population dynamics has been called into question in recent years because measurement errors were not properly dealt with in analyses. Using state-space models to account for measurement errors, we evaluated a set of competing models for a 22-year time series of mark-resight estimates of abundance for a breeding population of female Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii) studied in Erebus Bay, Antarctica. We tested for evidence of direct density dependence in growth rates and evaluated whether equilibrium population size was related to seasonal sea-ice extent and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). We found strong evidence of negative density dependence in annual growth rates for a population whose estimated size ranged from 438 to 623 females during the study. Based on Bayes factors, a density-dependence-only model was favored over models that also included en! vironmental covariates. According to the favored model, the population had a stationary distribution with a mean of 497 females (SD = 60.5), an expected growth rate of 1.10 (95% credible interval 1.08-1.15) when population size was 441 females, and a rate of 0.90 (95% credible interval 0.87-0.93) for a population of 553 females. A model including effects of SOI did receive some support and indicated a positive relationship between SOI and population size. However, effects of SOI were not large, and including the effect did not greatly reduce our estimate of process variation. We speculate that direct density dependence occurred because rates of adult survival, breeding, and temporary emigration were affected by limitations on per capita food resources and space for parturition and pup-rearing. To improve understanding of the relative roles of various demographic components and their associated vital rates to population growth rate, mark-recapture methods can be applied that incorporate both environmental covariates and the seal abundance estimates that were developed here. An improved understanding of why vital rates change with changing population abundance will only come as we develop a better understanding of the processes affecting marine food resources in the Southern Ocean.

Consequences of increased longevity for wealth, fertility, and population growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bogojević, A.; Balaž, A.; Karapandža, R.

2008-01-01

We present, solve and numerically simulate a simple model that describes the consequences of increased longevity for fertility rates, population growth and the distribution of wealth in developed societies. We look at the consequences of the repeated use of life extension techniques and show that they represent a novel commodity whose introduction will profoundly influence key aspects of the economy and society in general. In particular, we uncover two phases within our simplified model, labeled as ‘mortal’ and ‘immortal’. Within the life extension scenario it is possible to have sustainable economic growth in a population of stable size, as a result of dynamical equilibrium between the two phases.

Expert Group Meeting on Population, Environment and Development.

PubMed

1993-01-01

As part of the preparation for the up-coming International Conference on Population and Development, an expert group met at UN headquarters on January 20-24, 1992. The group noted that the momentum of population growth was expected to add 3 billion people to the global population between 1985 and 2025, with more than 90% of the growth occurring in the developing countries which are least able to respond to the attendant resource and environmental demands. The expert group discussed the interaction of population and resources, specifically the impact of population growth on the environment and carrying capacity. The meeting then focused on environmental discontinuities and uncertainties and on environmental degradation, specifically the loss of agricultural land, the destruction of tropical forests, fresh-water resource, the loss of biological diversify, and climate change. Following their deliberations, the expert group drafted 18 recommendations addressed to governments, social institutions, and international organizations. The group urged that governments establish or strengthen the integration of environmental and population concerns into development policy-making and planning and support technologies to achieve sustained economic growth and development while striving to replace the use of fossil fuels with renewable resources. Areas of the environment subject to acute population pressure should be identified and policies devised to reduce that pressure. Ecologically helpful labor-intensive projects should be implemented for their dual benefits. Women should be included in these activities, and their status in society, therefore, should be improved through improved education and participatory opportunities. The uses of water should be optimized to acknowledge its scarcity. The delivery of service to alleviate poverty should proceed in a manner that invites community participation, which, along with education, will be vital to institute these changes. Adequate resources for urban management should be allocated to local authorities. Environmentally displaced people should receive assistance while the cause of their uprooting is simultaneously addressed. Land-use planning and promotion of emergency prevention is increasingly important as populations settle in areas vulnerable to natural disasters. International organizations are urged to support efforts to minimize the health impacts of environmental degradation and increase their assistance in the areas of population, sustainable development, and the environment, especially in training and national planning. Awareness of the interrelatedness of these issues should be promoted in every way possible, especially through education, training, and the support of databases. Policy-oriented research should focus on identifying critically endangered areas. As policies are devised for sustainable development, special attention should be paid to improving the circumstances of indigenous people, and their accumulated experience with sustainable development should be sought and used. Finally, conflicting goals between countries should be identified by governments to allow open analysis, successful negotiation, and satisfactory solutions.

Modeling the growth of individuals in plant populations: local density variation in a strand population of Xanthium strumarium (Asteraceae).

PubMed

Weiner, J; Kinsman, S; Williams, S

1998-11-01

We studied the growth of individual Xanthium strumarium plants growing at four naturally occurring local densities on a beach in Maine: (1) isolated plants, (2) pairs of plants ≤1 cm apart, (3) four plants within 4 cm of each other, and (4) discrete dense clumps of 10-39 plants. A combination of nondestructive measurements every 2 wk and parallel calibration harvests provided very good estimates of the growth in aboveground biomass of over 400 individual plants over 8 wk and afforded the opportunity to fit explicit growth models to 293 of them. There was large individual variation in growth and resultant size within the population and within all densities. Local crowding played a role in determining plant size within the population: there were significant differences in final size between all densities except pairs and quadruples, which were almost identical. Overall, plants growing at higher densities were more variable in growth and final size than plants growing at lower densities, but this was due to increased variation among groups (greater variation in local density and/or greater environmental heterogeneity), not to increased variation within groups. Thus, there was no evidence of size asymmetric competition in this population. The growth of most plants was close to exponential over the study period, but half the plants were slightly better fit by a sigmoidal (logistic) model. The proportion of plants better fit by the logistic model increased with density and with initial plant size. The use of explicit growth models over several growth intervals to describe stand development can provide more biological content and more statistical power than "growth-size" methods that analyze growth intervals separately.

Assessment of water availability and demand in Lake Guiers , Senegal.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sambou, D.; Weihrauch, D.; Hellwing, V.; Diekkrüger, B.; Höllermann, B.; Gaye, A. T.

2015-12-01

Assessment of water availability and demand in Lake Guiers, SenegalWater resources are critical to economic growth and social development. In most African countries, supply of drinking water to satisfy population needs is a key issue because of population growth and climate and land use change. During the last three decades, increasing population, changing patterns of water demand, and concentration of population and economic activities in urban areas has pressurize Senegal's freshwater resources. To overcome this deficit, Senegal turned, to the exploitation of the Lake Guiers. It is the sole water reservoir which can be used extensively as a stable freshwater. Its water is use for irrigating crops and sugar refinery and as a drinking water resource for urban centres, including Dakar, the capital city of Senegal, as well as for the local population and animal herds. To ensure sustainability, a greater understanding of Lake Guiers's water resources and effective management of its use will be required. In this study we developed and quantified future water situation (water availability and demand) in Lake Guiers under scenarios of climate change and population growth until 2050, using the water management model WEAP (Water Evaluation And Planning system). The results show that the pressure on Lake Guiers's water resources will increase, leading to greater competition between agriculture and municipal demand site. Decreasing inflows due to climate change will aggravate this situation. WEAP results offer basis to assister lake Guiers water resources manager for an efficient long-term planning and management. Keywords: climate change, population growth , IWRM, Lake Guiers, Senegal

Global rates of habitat loss and implications for amphibian conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gallant, Alisa L.; Klaver, R.W.; Casper, G.S.; Lannoo, M.J.

2007-01-01

A large number of factors are known to affect amphibian population viability, but most authors agree that the principal causes of amphibian declines are habitat loss, alteration, and fragmentation. We provide a global assessment of land use dynamics in the context of amphibian distributions. We accomplished this by compiling global maps of amphibian species richness and recent rates of change in land cover, land use, and human population growth. The amphibian map was developed using a combination of published literature and digital databases. We used an ecoregion framework to help interpret species distributions across environmental, rather than political, boundaries. We mapped rates of land cover and use change with statistics from the World Resources Institute, refined with a global digital dataset on land cover derived from satellite data. Temporal maps of human population were developed from the World Resources Institute database and other published sources. Our resultant map of amphibian species richness illustrates that amphibians are distributed in an uneven pattern around the globe, preferring terrestrial and freshwater habitats in ecoregions that are warm and moist. Spatiotemporal patterns of human population show that, prior to the 20th century, population growth and spread was slower, most extensive in the temperate ecoregions, and largely exclusive of major regions of high amphibian richness. Since the beginning of the 20th century, human population growth has been exponential and has occurred largely in the subtropical and tropical ecoregions favored by amphibians. Population growth has been accompanied by broad-scale changes in land cover and land use, typically in support of agriculture. We merged information on land cover, land use, and human population growth to generate a composite map showing the rates at which humans have been changing the world. When compared with the map of amphibian species richness, we found that many of the regions of the earth supporting the richest assemblages of amphibians are currently undergoing the highest rates of landscape modification.

Population education in Sierra Leone.

PubMed

Lucan, T A

1985-06-01

The 1977 Sierra Leone 3 year population education project had 5 objectives: 1) to develop a core of Sierra Leoneans qualified in population education, 2) to integrate population education concepts into the curriculum for secondary schools and teachers colleges, 3) to train teachers already engaged in trial teaching in pilot schools in the new integrated curricula to give support to their colleagues, 4) to integrate population education into the whole Sierra Leone educational system, and 5) to create an awareness of the implications of population growth on the socioeconomic development of the country. A 1977 seminar on the Social Studies and Population Education Program discussed population issues and economic and social development. The strategy recommended at the seminar was that both the minor and the major revision approaches be used in the integration of population education concepts into the existing curriculum of the National Program in Social Studies for the lower secondary level. A Spiral Curriculum was established in 1981 constructed of 6 topics: 1) man's origins, development, and characteristics; 2) man's environment; 3) man's culture; 4) population and resources; 5) communication in the service of man; and 6) global issues-achievement and problems. Both at in-service and at pre-servicetraining, the enquiry method of teaching was emphasized. By the end of December 1981, the curriculum in Social Studies integrated with Population Education was completed for secondary schools and secondary teachers' colleges. The availability of the textbooks that secondary school students will take to their homes for their parents to read will contribute immensely to the attainment of the development objective of creating an awareness of the implications and consequences of population growth on the socioeconomic development of the country.

Growth velocity in constitutional delay of growth and development.

PubMed

Butenandt, Otfrid; Kunze, Detlef

2010-01-01

Growth velocity was determined in 121 boys and 58 girls with constitutional delay of growth and development (CDGD) of familial origin. No data were included from patients suffering from growth hormone insufficiency (i.e. neurosecretory dysfunction for growth hormone) or any disease. From 479 values obtained in boys and 230 values obtained in girls the 25th, 50th and 75th percentiles were calculated. The mean growth velocity in children and adolescents with CDGD before the beginning of puberty was lower than the mean growth velocity of other European (British, German or Swiss) standards. Specific data of growth velocity should be used in patients with CDGD since population-based data may underestimate the normal growth velocity of these patients.

Age, growth and population structure of invasive lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles) in northeast Florida using a length-based, age-structured population model.

PubMed

Johnson, Eric G; Swenarton, Mary Katherine

2016-01-01

The effective management of invasive species requires detailed understanding of the invader's life history. This information is essential for modeling population growth and predicting rates of expansion, quantifying ecological impacts and assessing the efficacy of removal and control strategies. Indo-Pacific lionfish ( Pterois volitans/miles ) have rapidly invaded the western Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea with documented negative impacts on native ecosystems. To better understand the life history of this species, we developed and validated a length-based, age-structured model to investigate age, growth and population structure in northeast Florida. The main findings of this study were: (1) lionfish exhibited rapid growth with seasonal variation in growth rates; (2) distinct cohorts were clearly identifiable in the length-frequency data, suggesting that lionfish are recruiting during a relatively short period in summer; and (3) the majority of lionfish were less than two years old with no lionfish older than three years of age, which may be the result of culling efforts as well as ontogenetic habitat shifts to deeper water.

Age, growth and population structure of invasive lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles) in northeast Florida using a length-based, age-structured population model

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

The effective management of invasive species requires detailed understanding of the invader’s life history. This information is essential for modeling population growth and predicting rates of expansion, quantifying ecological impacts and assessing the efficacy of removal and control strategies. Indo-Pacific lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles) have rapidly invaded the western Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea with documented negative impacts on native ecosystems. To better understand the life history of this species, we developed and validated a length-based, age-structured model to investigate age, growth and population structure in northeast Florida. The main findings of this study were: (1) lionfish exhibited rapid growth with seasonal variation in growth rates; (2) distinct cohorts were clearly identifiable in the length-frequency data, suggesting that lionfish are recruiting during a relatively short period in summer; and (3) the majority of lionfish were less than two years old with no lionfish older than three years of age, which may be the result of culling efforts as well as ontogenetic habitat shifts to deeper water. PMID:27920953

Climate change and functional traits affect population dynamics of a long-lived seabird.

PubMed

Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Desprez, Marine; Fay, Remi; Barbraud, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri; Delord, Karine; Caswell, Hal

2018-07-01

Recent studies unravelled the effect of climate changes on populations through their impact on functional traits and demographic rates in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, but such understanding in marine ecosystems remains incomplete. Here, we evaluate the impact of the combined effects of climate and functional traits on population dynamics of a long-lived migratory seabird breeding in the southern ocean: the black-browed albatross (Thalassarche melanophris, BBA). We address the following prospective question: "Of all the changes in the climate and functional traits, which would produce the biggest impact on the BBA population growth rate?" We develop a structured matrix population model that includes the effect of climate and functional traits on the complete BBA life cycle. A detailed sensitivity analysis is conducted to understand the main pathway by which climate and functional trait changes affect the population growth rate. The population growth rate of BBA is driven by the combined effects of climate over various seasons and multiple functional traits with carry-over effects across seasons on demographic processes. Changes in sea surface temperature (SST) during late winter cause the biggest changes in the population growth rate, through their effect on juvenile survival. Adults appeared to respond to changes in winter climate conditions by adapting their migratory schedule rather than by modifying their at-sea foraging activity. However, the sensitivity of the population growth rate to SST affecting BBA migratory schedule is small. BBA foraging activity during the pre-breeding period has the biggest impact on population growth rate among functional traits. Finally, changes in SST during the breeding season have little effect on the population growth rate. These results highlight the importance of early life histories and carry-over effects of climate and functional traits on demographic rates across multiple seasons in population response to climate change. Robust conclusions about the roles of various phases of the life cycle and functional traits in population response to climate change rely on an understanding of the relationships of traits to demographic rates across the complete life cycle. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd oxn behalf of British Ecological Society.

A Longitudinal Investigation of Reading Development from Kindergarten to Grade Eight in a Spanish-Speaking Bilingual Population

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grimm, Ryan P.; Solari, Emily J.; Gerber, Michael M.

2018-01-01

This longitudinal study used latent growth curve modeling to investigate English literacy development in a sample of Spanish-speaking language minority students from third through eighth grade. This study also compared the sample's literacy development to the entire population of California students using state standardized test data. Second, this…

Population, internal migration, and economic growth: an empirical analysis.

PubMed

Moreland, R S

1982-01-01

The role of population growth in the development process has received increasing attention during the last 15 years, as manifested in the literature in 3 broad categories. In the 1st category, the effects of rapid population growth on the growth of income have been studied with the use of simulation models, which sometimes include endogenous population growth. The 2nd category of the literature is concerned with theoretical and empirical studies of the economic determinants of various demographic rates--most usually fertility. Internal migration and dualism is the 3rd population development category to recieve attention. An attempt is made to synthesize developments in these 3 categories by estimating from a consistent set of data a 2 sector economic demographic model in which the major demographic rates are endogenous. Due to the fact that the interactions between economic and demographic variables are nonlinear and complex, the indirect effects of changes in a particular variable may depend upon the balance of numerical coefficients. For this reason it was felt that the model should be empirically grounded. A brief overview of the model is provided, and the model is compared to some similar existing models. Estimation of the model's 9 behavior equations is discussed, followed by a "base run" simulation of a developing country "stereotype" and a report of a number of policy experiments. The relatively new field of economic determinants of demographic variables was drawn upon in estimating equations to endogenize demographic phenomena that are frequently left exogenous in simulation models. The fertility and labor force participation rate functions are fairly standard, but a step beyong existing literature was taken in the life expectancy and intersectorial migration equations. On the economic side, sectoral savings functions were estimated, and it was found that the marginal propensity to save is lower in agriculture than in nonagriculture. Testing to see the effect of a population's age structure on savings rather than assuming a particular direction as Coale-Hoover and Simon do in their models, it was found that a higher proportion of children compete with savings in agriculture but complement savings in industrial areas. This was consistent with the economic value of children in agricultural and nonagricultural regions of less developed countries. The estimated production functions showed that marginal products of labor were considerably higher in agriculture than in nonagriculture. As with other simulation models, the effect of reducing fertility was to accelerate income growth. Reductions in rural fertility were more equitable and raised the overall level of per capita income more than similar efforts directed to urban areas only.

Resurrecting social infrastructure as a determinant of urban tuberculosis control in Delhi, India

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The key to universal coverage in tuberculosis (TB) management lies in community participation and empowerment of the population. Social infrastructure development generates social capital and addresses the crucial social determinants of TB, thereby improving program performance. Recently, there has been renewed interest in the concept of social infrastructure development for TB control in developing countries. This study aims to revive this concept and highlight the fact that documentation on ways to operationalize urban TB control is required from a holistic development perspective. Further, it explains how development of social infrastructure impacts health and development outcomes, especially with respect to TB in urban settings. Methods A wide range of published Government records pertaining to social development parameters and TB program surveillance, between 2001 and 2011 in Delhi, were studied. Social infrastructure development parameters like human development index along with other indicators reflecting patient profile and habitation in urban settings were selected as social determinants of TB. These include adult literacy rates, per capita income, net migration rates, percentage growth in slum population, and percentage of urban population living in one-room dwelling units. The impact of the Revised National Tuberculosis Control Program on TB incidence was assessed as an annual decline in new TB cases notified under the program. Univariate linear regression was employed to examine the interrelationship between social development parameters and TB program outcomes. Results The decade saw a significant growth in most of the social development parameters in the State. TB program performance showed 46% increment in lives saved among all types of TB cases per 100,000 population. The 7% reduction in new TB case notifications from the year 2001 to 2011, translates to a logarithmic decline of 5.4 new TB cases per 100,000 population. Except per capita income, literacy, and net migration rates, other social determinants showed significant correlation with decline in new TB cases per 100,000 population. Conclusions Social infrastructure development leads to social capital generation which engenders positive growth in TB program outcomes. Strategies which promote social infrastructure development should find adequate weightage in the overall policy framework for urban TB control in developing countries. PMID:24438431

Resurrecting social infrastructure as a determinant of urban tuberculosis control in Delhi, India.

PubMed

Chandra, Shivani; Sharma, Nandini; Joshi, Kulanand; Aggarwal, Nishi; Kannan, Anjur Tupil

2014-01-17

The key to universal coverage in tuberculosis (TB) management lies in community participation and empowerment of the population. Social infrastructure development generates social capital and addresses the crucial social determinants of TB, thereby improving program performance. Recently, there has been renewed interest in the concept of social infrastructure development for TB control in developing countries. This study aims to revive this concept and highlight the fact that documentation on ways to operationalize urban TB control is required from a holistic development perspective. Further, it explains how development of social infrastructure impacts health and development outcomes, especially with respect to TB in urban settings. A wide range of published Government records pertaining to social development parameters and TB program surveillance, between 2001 and 2011 in Delhi, were studied. Social infrastructure development parameters like human development index along with other indicators reflecting patient profile and habitation in urban settings were selected as social determinants of TB. These include adult literacy rates, per capita income, net migration rates, percentage growth in slum population, and percentage of urban population living in one-room dwelling units. The impact of the Revised National Tuberculosis Control Program on TB incidence was assessed as an annual decline in new TB cases notified under the program. Univariate linear regression was employed to examine the interrelationship between social development parameters and TB program outcomes. The decade saw a significant growth in most of the social development parameters in the State. TB program performance showed 46% increment in lives saved among all types of TB cases per 100,000 population. The 7% reduction in new TB case notifications from the year 2001 to 2011, translates to a logarithmic decline of 5.4 new TB cases per 100,000 population. Except per capita income, literacy, and net migration rates, other social determinants showed significant correlation with decline in new TB cases per 100,000 population. Social infrastructure development leads to social capital generation which engenders positive growth in TB program outcomes. Strategies which promote social infrastructure development should find adequate weightage in the overall policy framework for urban TB control in developing countries.

A systematic review and meta-analysis to revise the Fenton growth chart for preterm infants.

PubMed

Fenton, Tanis R; Kim, Jae H

2013-04-20

The aim of this study was to revise the 2003 Fenton Preterm Growth Chart, specifically to: a) harmonize the preterm growth chart with the new World Health Organization (WHO) Growth Standard, b) smooth the data between the preterm and WHO estimates, informed by the Preterm Multicentre Growth (PreM Growth) study while maintaining data integrity from 22 to 36 and at 50 weeks, and to c) re-scale the chart x-axis to actual age (rather than completed weeks) to support growth monitoring. Systematic review, meta-analysis, and growth chart development. We systematically searched published and unpublished literature to find population-based preterm size at birth measurement (weight, length, and/or head circumference) references, from developed countries with: Corrected gestational ages through infant assessment and/or statistical correction; Data percentiles as low as 24 weeks gestational age or lower; Sample with greater than 500 infants less than 30 weeks. Growth curves for males and females were produced using cubic splines to 50 weeks post menstrual age. LMS parameters (skew, median, and standard deviation) were calculated. Six large population-based surveys of size at preterm birth representing 3,986,456 births (34,639 births < 30 weeks) from countries Germany, United States, Italy, Australia, Scotland, and Canada were combined in meta-analyses. Smooth growth chart curves were developed, while ensuring close agreement with the data between 24 and 36 weeks and at 50 weeks. The revised sex-specific actual-age growth charts are based on the recommended growth goal for preterm infants, the fetus, followed by the term infant. These preterm growth charts, with the disjunction between these datasets smoothing informed by the international PreM Growth study, may support an improved transition of preterm infant growth monitoring to the WHO growth charts.

Understanding Urban Development In Canada. "Understanding Economics" Series No. 3.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Plunkett, T. J.

This booklet for Canadian secondary school students examines urbanization and its relationship to other factors of the economy. Five sections analyze urbanization, the pattern of urban development, community needs, the management of urban growth, and urban governance. Part I traces the growth of the Canadian population, noting that 10% of the…

Fire Risk and Residential Development: A GIS Analysis

Treesearch

Jennifer L. Rechel; James B. Davis; Ted K. Bradshaw

1992-01-01

Population growth is rapid in rural areas in California. This growth into the wildland-urban interface makes fire protection and suppression more difficult. Fire managers have opportunities to reduce fire danger by improving housing development patterns; however, the overall density and placement of houses is usually set by criteria other than fire danger. By...

Development of a dynamic energy budget modeling approach to investigate the effects of temperature and resource limitation on mercury bioaccumulation in Fundulus heteroclitus.

EPA Science Inventory

Dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory provides a generalizable and broadly applicable framework to connect sublethal toxic effects on individuals to changes in population survival and growth. To explore this approach, we are developing growth and bioaccumulation studies that contrib...

Construction and analysis of a giant gartersnake (Thamnophis gigas) population projection model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rose, Jonathan P.; Ersan, Julia S. M.; Wylie, Glenn D.; Casazza, Michael L.; Halstead, Brian J.

2018-03-19

The giant gartersnake (Thamnophis gigas) is a state and federally threatened species precinctive to California. The range of the giant gartersnake has contracted in the last century because its wetland habitat has been drained for agriculture and development. As a result of this habitat alteration, giant gartersnakes now largely persist in and near rice agriculture in the Sacramento Valley, because the system of canals that conveys water for rice growing approximates historical wetland habitat. Many aspects of the demography of giant gartersnakes are unknown, including how individuals grow throughout their life, how size influences reproduction, and how survival varies over time and among populations. We studied giant gartersnakes throughout the Sacramento Valley of California from 1995 to 2016 using capture-mark-recapture to study the growth, reproduction, and survival of this threatened species. We then use these data to construct an Integral Projection Model, and analyze this demographic model to understand which vital rates contribute most to the growth rate of giant gartersnake populations. We find that giant gartersnakes exhibit indeterminate growth; growth slows as individuals’ age. Fecundity, probability of reproduction, and survival all increase with size, although survival may decline for the largest female giant gartersnakes. The population growth rate of giant gartersnakes is most influenced by the survival and growth of large adult females, and the size at which 1 year old recruits enter the population. Our results indicate that management actions benefitting these influential demographic parameters will have the greatest positive effect on giant gartersnake population growth rates, and therefore population persistence. This study informs the conservation and management of giant gartersnakes and their habitat, and illustrates the effectiveness of hierarchical Bayesian models for the study of rare and elusive species.

Population growth, interest rate, and housing tax in the transitional China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Ling-Yun; Wen, Xing-Chun

2017-03-01

This paper combines and develops the models in Lastrapes (2002) and Mankiw and Weil (1989), which enables us to analyze the effects of interest rate and population growth shocks on housing price in one integrated framework. Based on this model, we carry out policy simulations to examine whether the housing (stock or flow) tax reduces the housing price fluctuations caused by interest rate or population growth shocks. Simulation results imply that the choice of housing tax tools depends on the kind of shock that housing market faces. In the situation where the housing price volatility is caused by the population growth shock, the flow tax can reduce the volatility of housing price while the stock tax makes no difference to it. If the shock is resulting from the interest rate, the policy maker should not impose any kind of the housing taxes. Furthermore, the effect of one kind of the housing tax can be strengthened by that of the other type of housing tax.

Prenatal head growth and child neuropsychological development at age 14 months.

PubMed

Álamo-Junquera, Dolores; Sunyer, Jordi; Iñiguez, Carmen; Ballester, Ferran; Garcia-Esteban, Raquel; Forns, Joan; Turner, Michelle C; Lertxundi, Aitana; Lertxundi, Nerea; Fernandez-Somoano, Ana; Rodriguez-Dehli, Cristina; Julvez, Jordi

2015-05-01

We sought to assess the association between prenatal head growth and child neuropsychological development in the general population. We evaluated 2104 children at the age of 14 months from a population-based birth cohort in Spain. Head circumference (HC) was measured by ultrasound examinations at weeks 12, 20, and 34 of gestation and by a nurse at birth. Head growth was assessed using conditional SD scores between weeks 12-20 and 20-34. Trained psychologists assessed neuropsychological functioning using the Bayley Scales of Infant Development. Head size measurements at birth were transformed into a 3-category variable: microcephalic (<10th percentile), normocephalic (≥10th and <90th percentile), and macrocephalic (≥90th percentile) based on the cohort distribution. P values<.05 were considered statistically significant. No overall associations were observed between HC or head growth and mental and psychomotor scores. In particular, no associations were found between HC at birth and mental scores (coefficient, 0.04; 95% confidence interval, -0.02 to 0.09) and between interval head growth (20-34 weeks) and mental scores (0.31; 95% confidence interval, -0.36 to 0.99). Upon stratification by microcephalic, normocephalic, or macrocephalic head size, results were imprecise, although there were some significant associations in the microcephalic and macrocephalic groups. Adjustment by various child and maternal cofactors did not affect results. The minimum sample size required for present study was 883 patients (β=2, α=0.05, power=0.80). Overall prenatal and perinatal HC was not associated with 14-month-old neuropsychological development. Findings suggest HC growth during uterine life among healthy infants may not be an important marker of early-life neurodevelopment but may be marginally useful with specific populations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Phenotypic plasticity in a complex world: interactive effects of food and temperature on fitness components of a seed beetle.

PubMed

Stillwell, R Craig; Wallin, William G; Hitchcock, Lisa J; Fox, Charles W

2007-08-01

Most studies of phenotypic plasticity investigate the effects of an individual environmental factor on organism phenotypes. However, organisms exist in an ecologically complex world where multiple environmental factors can interact to affect growth, development and life histories. Here, using a multifactorial experimental design, we examine the separate and interactive effects of two environmental factors, rearing host species (Vigna radiata, Vigna angularis and Vigna unguiculata) and temperature (20, 25, 30 and 35 degrees C), on growth and life history traits in two populations [Burkina Faso (BF) and South India (SI)] of the seed beetle, Callosobruchus maculatus. The two study populations of beetles responded differently to both rearing host and temperature. We also found a significant interaction between rearing host and temperature for body size, growth rate and female lifetime fecundity but not larval development time or larval survivorship. The interaction was most apparent for growth rate; the variance in growth rate among hosts increased with increasing temperature. However, the details of host differences differed between our two study populations; the degree to which V. unguiculata was a better host than V. angularis or V. radiata increased at higher temperatures for BF beetles, whereas the degree to which V. unguiculata was the worst host increased at higher temperatures for SI beetles. We also found that the heritabilities of body mass, growth rate and fecundity were similar among rearing hosts and temperatures, and that the cross-temperature genetic correlation was not affected by rearing host, suggesting that genetic architecture is generally stable across rearing conditions. The most important finding of our study is that multiple environmental factors can interact to affect organism growth, but the degree of interaction, and thus the degree of complexity of phenotypic plasticity, varies among traits and between populations.

Population structure in the Arab world and its impact on integration and development trends.

PubMed

El-hallak, M N

1986-12-01

The author examines three issues: "population structure in the Arab world; trends making for integration and unity among the Arab countries; and economic and social development trends." Data from the United Nations for 1985 and from recent censuses are used to discuss population size, growth, and spatial distribution; the labor force; age and sex distribution; and fertility, mortality, and natural increase. Figures are presented separately for 22 Arab countries. Attention is then given to the relationships between population structure and economic and social development and between development and Arab unity and integration. excerpt

A geometric morphometric study of regional differences in the ontogeny of the modern human facial skeleton.

PubMed

Vioarsdóttir, Una Strand; O'Higgins, Paul; Stringer, Chris

2002-09-01

This study examines interpopulation variations in the facial skeleton of 10 modern human populations and places these in an ontogenetic perspective. It aims to establish the extent to which the distinctive features of adult representatives of these populations are present in the early post natal period and to what extent population differences in ontogenetic scaling and allometric trajectories contribute to distinct facial forms. The analyses utilize configurations of facial landmarks and are carried out using geometric morphometric methods. The results of this study show that modern human populations can be distinguished based on facial shape alone, irrespective of age or sex, indicating the early presence of differences. Additionally, some populations have statistically distinct facial ontogenetic trajectories that lead to the development of further differences later in ontogeny. We conclude that population-specific facial morphologies develop principally through distinctions in facial shape probably already present at birth and further accentuated and modified to variable degrees during growth. These findings raise interesting questions regarding the plasticity of facial growth patterns in modern humans. Further, they have important implications in relation to the study of growth in the face of fossil hominins and in relation to the possibility of developing effective discriminant functions for the identification of population affinities of immature facial skeletal material. Such tools would be of value in archaeological, forensic and anthropological applications. The findings of this study underline the need to examine more deeply, and in more detail, the ontogenetic basis of other causes of craniometric variation, such as sexual dimorphism and hominin species differentiation.

[Effect of the population density on growth and regeneration in the snail Achatina fulica].

PubMed

Sidel'nikov, A P; Stepanov, I I

2000-01-01

In the laboratory, the growth rate of the giant African snail Achatina fulica, as estimated by the weight and shell length was shown to decrease when the population density increased from 10 to 60 snails/m2 of the total terrarium area for five months. In the second experiment, when the population density increased from 48 to 193 snails/m2, the growth rate had already decreased by six weeks. In the groups with a high population density the feeding behavior was weakened, expressed by a greater amount of nonconsumed food, according to visual observations, than in the groups with lower population densities. At the population density of 10 to 60 snails/m2, the proliferative activity in the course of the optic tentacle regeneration, as expressed by the mitotic index, did not differ reliably within five months. In the second experiment, the mitotic indices at the population densities of 96 and 193 snails/m2 within 1.5 months exceeded that of 48 snails/m2. Recommendations are given concerning the population density from the viewpoint of commercial growth of the snails. It was proposed that, based on the analysis of the mechanism underlying the inhibition of feeding behavior in populations with extra high densities, one may develop a new approach to the production of chemical agents to control land snails as agricultural pests.

Population and development in Asia and the Pacific: a demographic analysis.

PubMed

Debavalya, N

1982-06-01

Close examinations of population trends shows that the new trends reflect demographic changes that have occurred in many developing countries in Asia and the Pacific. In East Asia the population growth rate has declined rather rapidly from 1.94% in 1960-65 to 1.38% in 1975-80 and 1.24% in 1980-85. Since nearly 85% of this region's population is accounted for by China, demographic trends there virtually dictate the trends for the region as a whole. The available data suggest that the growth rate in China declined from 2.02% in 1970-75 to 1.4% in 1975-80 and is expected to reach 1.27% during 1980-85. The sharp decline in China's population growth rate is expected to continue. It is anticipated that the population of East Asia will increase to 1.4 billion by the year 2000. In addition, the growth rate has declined significantly in Japan and the Republic of Korea. The growth rate is declining in Eastern South and Middle South Asia as well. Longterm declines have brought growth rates down in Sri Lanka and Singapore. More recently, the rate of growth also has begun to fall in India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand, while it remains generally at high levels in Bangladesh, Nepal, and Pakistan. In the Oceania region, 79% of which is made up of Australia and New Zealand, the growth rate is also steadily decreasing. Despite the decrease in the growth rate of Asia and the Pacific, especially during 1980-2000, in absolute terms its growth will be the largest in the world during these 29 years; 908 million out of 1687 million of the total growth. Asia and the Pacific will contribute more than 45 million people a year during the final 20 years of this century. For the world as a whole, the new estimates and projections indicate a slow but steady decline of the crude birthrate from 36.3/1000 in 1950-55 to 28.5 in 1975-80, then to 23.9 in 1995-2000, and finally to 17.9 in 2020-2025. China had a birthrate estimated at about 21 in 1975-80; and India and Indonesia had estimated rates in the range of 33-35. Japan, Australia, and New Zealand had estimated birthrates in the range of 15-18 in 1975-80. As was the case with fertility, the largest gains in mortality reduction have accrued among the less developed regions. In Asia mortality declines have slowed during recent years. Some substantial shifts in patterns of international migration have occurred in the flow of workers into the oil rich countries of Middle and Western South Asia. Migrants come closely from countries within the region, and there are growing numbers from India, Pakistan, the Philippines, Thailand, and elsewhere. The number of people living in urban centers in Asia is increasing very rapidly. Meeting basic needs requires a dual target for each less developed country--an increase in gross national product per capita and a redistribution of income.

Variation in freshwater growth and development among five New England Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) populations reared in a common environment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Obedzinski, M.; Letcher, B.H.

2004-01-01

We examined phenotypic variation in growth and development from the eyed-egg stage to the age-1+ smolt stage among five New England populations of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar: East Machias, Narraguagus, Sheepscot, Penobscot, Connecticut) reared in a common laboratory environment. Study populations originated from rivers varying in size, latitude, and level of hatchery supplementation and included one reintroduced population (Connecticut was a recipient of Penobscot origin stock). Phenotypic trait differences were found among populations, and the degree of stock variation depended on ontogeny. Eggs were smaller and hatched sooner in the Penobscot (a northern, intensively managed population), but no stock differences were detected in size or growth efficiency from the onset of exogenous feeding to age 0+ summer. Differences again emerged in age 0+ autumn, with the degree of bimodality in length-frequency distributions differing among stocks; the Connecticut had the highest proportion of upper-mode fish and, ultimately, age-1+ smolts. Although genetic effects could not be entirely separated from maternal effects for egg size variation, it is likely that differences in hatch timing and smolt age had a genetic basis. Early emphasis on age-1+ hatchery-reared smolts in the Connecticut may have led to divergence in smolt age between the Penobscot and Connecticut populations in less than eight generations. ?? 2004 NRC Canada.

About ICLUS

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

ICLUS is a project for developing scenarios broadly consistent with global-scale, peer-reviewed storylines of population growth and economic development, which are used by climate change modelers to develop projections of future climate.

Response of fish population dynamics to mitigation activities in a large regulated river

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watkins, Carson J.; Ross, Tyler J.; Quist, Michael C.; Hardy, Ryan S.

2017-01-01

Extensive water development in large rivers has precipitated many negative ecological effects on native fish populations. Mitigation for such development often focuses on restoring biological integrity through remediation of the physical and chemical properties of regulated rivers. However, evaluating and defining the success of those programs can be difficult. We modeled the influence of mitigation-related environmental factors on growth and recruitment of two ecologically important native fish species (Largescale Sucker Catostomus macrocheilus and Mountain Whitefish Prosopium williamsoni) in the Kootenai River, Idaho. Artificial nutrient (phosphorus) addition best predicted the variability in annual growth of both species. Nutrient addition was positively related to Largescale Sucker growth but negatively related to Mountain Whitefish growth. The best model explained 82% of the annual variability in incremental growth for Largescale Suckers and 61% of the annual variability for Mountain Whitefish. Year-class strength of Largescale Suckers was not closely related to any of the environmental variables evaluated; however, year-class strength of Mountain Whitefish was closely associated with nutrient addition, discharge, and temperature. Most research has focused on biotic assemblages to evaluate the effects of mitigation activities on fishes, but there is an increased need to identify the influence of rehabilitation activities on fish population dynamics within those assemblages. Here, we demonstrate how fish growth can serve as an indicator of rehabilitation success in a highly regulated large river. Future fish restoration projects can likely benefit from a change in scope and from consideration of an evaluation framework involving the response of population rate functions to mitigation.

Physiological, Behavioral and Maternal Factors That Contribute to Size Variation in Larval Amphibian Populations

PubMed Central

Warne, Robin W.; Kardon, Adam; Crespi, Erica J.

2013-01-01

Size variance among similarly aged individuals within populations is a pattern common to many organisms that is a result of interactions between intrinsic and extrinsic traits of individuals. While genetic and maternal effects, as well as physiological and behavioral traits have been shown to contribute to size variation in animal populations, teasing apart the influence of such factors on individual growth rates remain a challenge. Furthermore, tracing the effects of these interactions across life stages and in shaping adult phenotypes also requires further exploration. In this study we investigated the relationship between genetics, hatching patterns, behaviors, neuroendocrine stress axis activity and variance in growth and metamorphosis among same-aged larval amphibians. Through parallel experiments we found that in the absence of conspecific interactions, hatch time and to a lesser extent egg clutch identity (i.e. genetics and maternal effects) influenced the propensity for growth and development in individual tadpoles and determined metamorphic traits. Within experimental groups we found that variance in growth rates was associated with size-dependent foraging behaviors and responses to food restriction. We also found an inverse relationship between glucocorticoid (GC) hormone levels and body mass and developmental stage among group-reared tadpoles, which suggests that GC expression plays a role in regulating differing within-population growth trajectories in response to density-dependent conditions. Taken together these findings suggest that factors that influence hatching conditions can have long-term effects on growth and development. These results also raise compelling questions regarding the extent to which maternal and genetic factors influence physiological and behavioral profiles in amphibians. PMID:24143188

Fertility decline and population growth: China's dilemma.

PubMed

Gu, B

1996-02-01

This article includes the assertion by the deputy director and demographer of the China Information and Research Center that China must maintain and implement a strict population policy in order to feed its large population. China has 22% of the world's total population but only 7% of the world's total cultivated land. The population rate varies by province and region in China and ranges from replacement level fertility in Shanghai to high growth in remote and underdeveloped provinces. About 70 million people live under the poverty line or have an annual family income of under 500 yuan. The family planning programs should emphasize a service oriented approach. The increased power of women and improved educational status of women are also desired. Concern is recognized in government circles about the rapid aging of the population. Rural-urban migration has improved the economic climate in cities, but migration has also resulted in "some serious social problems." China has a low fertility level but rapid population growth. In the 1990s about 21 million babies were born, which is a net increase of about 14 million annually. Population growth is serious because of a strong population momentum from the previous baby boom of the 1960s. China has accomplished a great deal in a short period of time in reducing fertility under unfavorable socioeconomic conditions. Credit must be given to the Chinese government, its various departments, and public response. Present population is over 1.2 billion, which is higher than the total population of developed countries of the world.

The Rise and Fall of a Yeast Community, An Environmental Investigation into the Dynamics of Population Growth.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Minnesota Environmental Sciences Foundation, Inc., Minneapolis.

In this unit students study populations by observing some of the activities that go on in one particular population. Specifically, yeast plants are examined and some of the effects which various environmental factors have on yeast plant populations are investigated. A population curve is developed showing how easily it is affected by the…

Farm Population Estimates for 1977. Rural Development Research Report No. 4.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Banks, Vera J.

The U.S. farm population continued its long-term downward trend during 1977, indicating that the population growth characteristic of nonmetropolitan counties since 1970 has not extended to population living on farms. In the 12-month period centered on April 1977, the farm population was 7,806,000, or 450,000 fewer farm residents (5.4%) than in…

Reproductive Health: An Introduction to IUCD in India

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tripathi, Vrijesh; Nandan, Deoki

2006-01-01

The world has a population of 6 billion. India alone has a population of 1 billion. This is despite the fact that India was the first country in the world to have a population policy. It is important to understand the factors that led to this population explosion and the complex links between population growth rates and levels of development.…

The long-term label retaining population of the renal papilla arises through divergent regional growth of the kidney.

PubMed

Adams, Derek C; Oxburgh, Leif

2009-09-01

Long-term pulse chase experiments previously identified a sizable population of BrdU-retaining cells within the renal papilla. The origin of these cells has been unclear, and in this work we test the hypothesis that they become quiescent early during the course of kidney development and organ growth. Indeed, we find that BrdU-retaining cells of the papilla can be labeled only by pulsing with BrdU from embryonic (E) day 11.25 to postnatal (P) day 7, the approximate period of kidney development in the mouse. BrdU signal in the cortex and outer medulla is rapidly diluted by cellular proliferation during embryonic development and juvenile growth, whereas cells within the papilla differentiate and exit the cell cycle during organogenesis. Indeed, by E17.5, little or no active proliferation can be seen in the distal papilla, indicating maturation of this structure in a distal-to-proximal manner during organogenesis. We conclude that BrdU-retaining cells of the papilla represent a population of cells that quiesce during embryonic development and localize within a region of the kidney that matures early. We therefore propose that selective papillary retention of BrdU arises through a combination of regionalized slowing of, and exit from, the cell cycle within the papilla during the period of ongoing kidney development, and extensive proliferative growth of the juvenile kidney resulting in dilution of BrdU below the detection level in extra-papillary regions.

STATISTICAL GROWTH MODELING OF LONGITUDINAL DT-MRI FOR REGIONAL CHARACTERIZATION OF EARLY BRAIN DEVELOPMENT.

PubMed

Sadeghi, Neda; Prastawa, Marcel; Fletcher, P Thomas; Gilmore, John H; Lin, Weili; Gerig, Guido

2012-01-01

A population growth model that represents the growth trajectories of individual subjects is critical to study and understand neurodevelopment. This paper presents a framework for jointly estimating and modeling individual and population growth trajectories, and determining significant regional differences in growth pattern characteristics applied to longitudinal neuroimaging data. We use non-linear mixed effect modeling where temporal change is modeled by the Gompertz function. The Gompertz function uses intuitive parameters related to delay, rate of change, and expected asymptotic value; all descriptive measures which can answer clinical questions related to growth. Our proposed framework combines nonlinear modeling of individual trajectories, population analysis, and testing for regional differences. We apply this framework to the study of early maturation in white matter regions as measured with diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). Regional differences between anatomical regions of interest that are known to mature differently are analyzed and quantified. Experiments with image data from a large ongoing clinical study show that our framework provides descriptive, quantitative information on growth trajectories that can be directly interpreted by clinicians. To our knowledge, this is the first longitudinal analysis of growth functions to explain the trajectory of early brain maturation as it is represented in DTI.

The importance of fetal gender in intrauterine growth restriction

PubMed Central

Radulescu, L; Ferechide, D; Popa, F

2013-01-01

One of the most important causes of perinatal mortality and morbidity complicating significant percentage pregnancies is intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR). Fetal growth restriction is the main cause of intrauterine fetal death and the second leading cause of death in the neonatal period. Numerous studies in different populations reveal an association between intrauterine growth restriction and perinatal and postnatal developments, which differ according to the sex of newborns with intrauterine growth restriction. However, the mechanisms of intrauterine programming, the critical time necessary to cause injury and involvement of other factors are unclear and although several authors’ opinions differ, it seems that females are more likely to develop intrauterine growth restriction. Abbreviations: IUGR=intrauterine growth restriction PMID:23599816

Trends in the growth of population and labour force in Pakistan.

PubMed

Hashmi, S S

1990-01-01

Trends in the growth of the population and labor force in Pakistan are examined and future prospects for growth of population and labor, particularly agriculture, are estimated. The definition of labor force as employed or seeking work after a short period of employment has led to a great disparity in results for women in the labor force. Past trends in population growth reflected a growth rate of 1.6% for the 1950's, and 2.4% in 1960. The population rose to 84.3 million in 1981 from 42.6 million in 1961, which intercensally was an increase of 3.6% per annum for 1961-72 and 3.1% per annum for 1972-81. The estimated rate for 1981-86 was 2.9%/year. The rural population doubled and the urban tripled. There was a net migration of 2.123 million to urban areas reported in the 1981 census. There is also evidence of a high sex ratio. Balochistan (7.1%) and Sindh (3.6%) provinces have the highest growth rates. Although the largest population is in the Punjab, the growth is the lowest at 2.7%. The population is primarily young -- 44.5% 15 years in 1981, which is the highest in the world. Under high, medium, and low levels of fertility, prospective trends are estimated for 2006 and 2031, and by sex every 5 years from 1981. Population under high fertility is expected to reach 270 million by 2031, which is 3.39 persons/hectare. The population/hectare of land under cultivation was 4.25 in 1981 and is expected to rise to 13.49 persons/hectare in 2031. 11 million acres could be brought under cultivation to reduce the ratio. However, there are ecological considerations as well as an employment problem. The dependency ratio under the high variant will decline from 76.8 persons 0-14 and 65 years/100 persons 15-64 years in 1986 to 70.3 in 2006 which is still considerably higher than other developing countries. It is suggested that replacement level fertility be attained as soon as possible. Under low fertility, replacement level can be reached by 2011 with strong political commitment. Past trends in the labor force, employment and unemployment, and employment by major industry are reported. The labor force participation rate of 29.6% in 1985 is among the lowest in the world. The age structure of the population, inadequate human resource development, and underreporting of females in the labor force account for the low rates. Population grew by 96.5% between 1961 and 81, but labor force increased 77.3% and employment 74.4%. The greatest growth was in the nonagricultural sector. Prospective trends show agricultural labor force growing from 15.1 million in 1981 to 20.2 million in 2006, which is expected to put pressure on agricultural land. Female nonagricultural sector labor force is expected to grow due to increased literacy and fertility declines.

Landscape urbanization and economic growth in China: positive feedbacks and sustainability dilemmas.

PubMed

Bai, Xuemei; Chen, Jing; Shi, Peijun

2012-01-03

Accelerating urbanization has been viewed as an important instrument for economic development and reducing regional income disparity in some developing countries, including China. Recent studies (Bloom et al. 2008) indicate that demographic urbanization level has no causal effect on economic growth. However, due to the varying and changing definition of urban population, the use of demographic indicators as a sole representing indicator for urbanization might be misleading. Here, we re-examine the causal relationship between urbanization and economic growth in Chinese cities and provinces in recent decades, using built-up areas as a landscape urbanization indicator. Our analysis shows that (1) larger cities, both in terms of population size and built-up area, and richer cities tend to gain more income, have larger built-up area expansion, and attract more population, than poorer cities or smaller cities; and (2) that there is a long-term bidirectional causality between urban built-up area expansion and GDP per capita at both city and provincial level, and a short-term bidirectional causality at provincial level, revealing a positive feedback between landscape urbanization and urban and regional economic growth in China. Our results suggest that urbanization, if measured by a landscape indicator, does have causal effect on economic growth in China, both within the city and with spillover effect to the region, and that urban land expansion is not only the consequences of economic growth in cities, but also drivers of such growth. The results also suggest that under its current economic growth model, it might be difficult for China to control urban expansion without sacrificing economic growth, and China's policy to stop the loss of agricultural land, for food security, might be challenged by its policy to promote economic growth through urbanization.

Landscape Urbanization and Economic Growth in China: Positive Feedbacks and Sustainability Dilemmas

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Accelerating urbanization has been viewed as an important instrument for economic development and reducing regional income disparity in some developing countries, including China. Recent studies (Bloom et al. 2008) indicate that demographic urbanization level has no causal effect on economic growth. However, due to the varying and changing definition of urban population, the use of demographic indicators as a sole representing indicator for urbanization might be misleading. Here, we re-examine the causal relationship between urbanization and economic growth in Chinese cities and provinces in recent decades, using built-up areas as a landscape urbanization indicator. Our analysis shows that (1) larger cities, both in terms of population size and built-up area, and richer cities tend to gain more income, have larger built-up area expansion, and attract more population, than poorer cities or smaller cities; and (2) that there is a long-term bidirectional causality between urban built-up area expansion and GDP per capita at both city and provincial level, and a short-term bidirectional causality at provincial level, revealing a positive feedback between landscape urbanization and urban and regional economic growth in China. Our results suggest that urbanization, if measured by a landscape indicator, does have causal effect on economic growth in China, both within the city and with spillover effect to the region, and that urban land expansion is not only the consequences of economic growth in cities, but also drivers of such growth. The results also suggest that under its current economic growth model, it might be difficult for China to control urban expansion without sacrificing economic growth, and China’s policy to stop the loss of agricultural land, for food security, might be challenged by its policy to promote economic growth through urbanization. PMID:22103244

Effects of wind energy production on growth, demography, and survivorship of a Desert Tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) population in Southern California with comparisons to natural populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lovich, J.E.; Ennen, J.R.; Madrak, S.; Meyer, K.; Loughran, C.; Bjurlin, C.; Arundel, T.; Turner, W.; Jones, C.; Groenendaal, G.M.

2011-01-01

We studied a Desert Tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) population at a large wind energy generation facility near Palm Springs, California over six field seasons from 1997 to 2010. We compared growth and demographic parameters to populations living in less disturbed areas; as well as populations of the closely-related and newly-described G. morafkai elsewhere in the Sonoran Desert of Arizona. We marked 69 individuals of all size classes and estimated a population size of 96 tortoises, or about 15.4/km2. Growth rates for males were lower than reported elsewhere, although maximum body size was larger. The smallest female with shelled eggs was 221 mm and males mature at over 200 mm. Mean male size was greater than that of females. The adult sex ratio was not significantly different from unity. Size frequency histograms were similar over time and when compared to most, but not all, G. morafkai populations in the Sonoran Desert. For a cohort of adult females, we estimated mortality at 8.4% annually due, in part, to site operations. This value was low in comparison to many other populations during the same time period. Other than possible differences in growth rate of males and the high survivorship of females, there appear to be few differences between this population and those in more natural areas. The high productivity of food plants at the site and its limited public access may contribute to the overall stability of the population. However, the effects of utility-scale renewable energy development on tortoises in other, less productive, areas are unknown. Additional research (especially controlled and replicated before and after studies) is urgently needed to address this deficiency because of forecasted expansion of utility-scale renewable energy development in the future.

Having quality population.

PubMed

Ramos, F V

1993-06-01

This speech was delivered during Population and Development Week in the Philippines. Attention was drawn to population statistics: an annual growth rate of 2.3%, density of 202 persons/sq km, and an expected population of 75 million by the year 2000. Coupled with rapid population growth is the uneven distribution of wealth: the top 20% have over 50% of the total income and the lowest 20% have only 5% of the income. In such a social situation, it is women and children who are the most vulnerable. In cities, unemployment is high due to population growth and the migration of the rural poor. The rural poor living in areas of declining resources also move onto marginal uplands, which adds pressure to the already fragile ecology. Everyone must accept that the nation's problems are due to overpopulation. The government's development plans aim for sustainable growth, poverty alleviation, reduction in equality, generation of job opportunities, and achievement of social justice. People in government are determined to lead the Philippines toward a higher standard comparable with other dynamic Asian neighbors. The strategy is empowerment of the people. THe value is in the welfare of individuals and their families and the welfare of the nation. Couples have the right to manage their family size voluntarily and responsibly. The government's role is to provide adequate information on family planning in accordance with individual's religious convictions. Policies will also be directed to improved access to quality education, child survival, and maternal health, employment opportunities, and access and control over resources for people. There must be fuller participation of women in development. Support for the government's population program is sought from government officials, the private sector, and nongovernmental organizations. All provincial governors, city and municipal mayors, and all local executives will be directed to formulate population plans and to provide family planning information and services. Public funds will be sought for population management and family planning. A National Plan of Action will be strictly followed over the next 6 years. The people are urged to follow the example of the national leader, the late Rafael Montinola Sales, who was awarded, posthumously, the Sikatuna Degree of Datu.

The impact of population growth on environment: the debate heats up.

PubMed

Shaw, R P

1992-02-01

A proposed framework, which was introduced at the 1989 meetings of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, included political constraints as well as population growth as a proximate cause with potentially important impacts on the environment in Paul and Ann Ehrlich's well-known PAT equation. PAT limitations are identified as the 1.2 billion people caught in the debt-poverty trap, less developed countries' balance of payments deficits, and "distortionary factors" that undermined economic incentives and contributed to mismanagement of resources. Such factors could be keeping farm prices low and have an impact on deterring use of environmentally sound traditional agricultural practices. Mismanagement of public lands occurs when large commercial enterprises or large scale mechanization displace population onto marginal or less productive lands. Intergroup warfare is a new form impacting on the environment. In Burma loggers are authorized to clear cut large tracts of teak forests in order to ferret out Karen guerrillas. Over 15 million refugees were thus displaced and forced to live in encampments that require trees for shelter, firewood for survival, and overgrazing of livestock. Social and economic environments are also undermined by "dependency" factors such as trade protectionism, brain drain, and limited foreign aid. The Group of 77 Non-Aligned Developing Countries proposed that discussions of the links between population and the environment be omitted from the agenda of the 1994 UN Conference on Population and Development. Basic clarifications are needed to distinguish ultimate versus proximate factors and current versus future concerns. The debate ignores distribution patterns, migration, or changing age structures. The debate blames unjustifiably rapid population growth as the ultimate cause of global environmental degradation and links population growth to a host of other social problems such as famine and refugees, while ignoring civil unrest. The evidence suggests that population limitation will probably prevent environmental degradation in poor, resource constrained countries from getting worse. Resource conservation will remain unaffected. The World Bank proposes National Environmental Action Plans or the Cleaver Schreiber proposal for a "nexus strategy" for balancing food supply and population in Africa.

On Dinosaur Growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erickson, Gregory M.

2014-05-01

Despite nearly two centuries of investigation, a comprehensive understanding of dinosaur biology has proven intractable. The recent development of means to study tissue-level growth, age these animals, and make growth curves has revolutionized our knowledge of dinosaur lives. From such data it is now understood that dinosaurs grew both disruptively and determinately; that they rarely if ever exceeded a century in age; that they became giants through accelerated growth and dwarfed through truncated development; that they were likely endothermic, sexually matured like crocodiles, and showed survivorship like populations of large mammals; and that basal birds retained dinosaurian physiology.

Dally Proteoglycan Mediates the Autonomous and Nonautonomous Effects on Tissue Growth Caused by Activation of the PI3K and TOR Pathways

PubMed Central

Ferreira, Ana; Milán, Marco

2015-01-01

How cells acquiring mutations in tumor suppressor genes outcompete neighboring wild-type cells is poorly understood. The phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase (PI3K)–phosphatase with tensin homology (PTEN) and tuberous sclerosis complex (TSC)-target of rapamycin (TOR) pathways are frequently activated in human cancer, and this activation is often causative of tumorigenesis. We utilized the Gal4-UAS system in Drosophila imaginal primordia, highly proliferative and growing tissues, to analyze the impact of restricted activation of these pathways on neighboring wild-type cell populations. Activation of these pathways leads to an autonomous induction of tissue overgrowth and to a remarkable nonautonomous reduction in growth and proliferation rates of adjacent cell populations. This nonautonomous response occurs independently of where these pathways are activated, is functional all throughout development, takes place across compartments, and is distinct from cell competition. The observed autonomous and nonautonomous effects on tissue growth rely on the up-regulation of the proteoglycan Dally, a major element involved in modulating the spreading, stability, and activity of the growth promoting Decapentaplegic (Dpp)/transforming growth factor β(TGF-β) signaling molecule. Our findings indicate that a reduction in the amount of available growth factors contributes to the outcompetition of wild-type cells by overgrowing cell populations. During normal development, the PI3K/PTEN and TSC/TOR pathways play a major role in sensing nutrient availability and modulating the final size of any developing organ. We present evidence that Dally also contributes to integrating nutrient sensing and organ scaling, the fitting of pattern to size. PMID:26313758

"A minimum of urbanism and a maximum of ruralism": the Cuban experience.

PubMed

Gugler, J

1980-01-01

The case of Cuba provides social scientists with reasonably good information on urbanization policies and their implementation in 1 developing country committed to socialism. The demographic context is considered, and Cuban efforts to eliminate the rural-urban contradiction and to redefine the role of Havana are described. The impact of these policies is analyzed in terms of available data on urbanization patterns since January 1959 when the revolutionaries marched into Havana. Prerevolutionary urbanization trends are considered. Fertility in Cuba has declined simultaneously with mortality and even more rapidly. Projections assume a 1.85% annual growth rate, resulting in a population of nearly 15 million by the year 2000. Any estimate regarding the future trend in population growth must depend on prognosis of general living conditions and of specific government policies regarding contraception, abortion, female labor force participation, and child care facilities. If population growth in Cuba has been substantial, but less dramatic than that of many other developing countries, urban growth presents a similar picture. Cuba's highest rate of growth of the population living in urban centers with a population over 20,000, in any intercensal period during the 20th century, was 4.1%/year for 1943-1953. It dropped to 3.0% in the 1953-1970 period. Government policies achieved a measure of success in stemming the tide of rural-urban migration, but the aims of the revolutionary leadership went further. The objective was for urban dwellers to be involved in agriculture, and the living standards of the rural population were to be raised to approximate those of city dwellers. The goal of "urbanizing" the countryside found expression in a program designed to construct new small towns which could more easily be provided with services. A slowdown in the growth of Havana, and the concomitant weakening of its dominant position, was intended by the revolutionary leadership. Offical policies have been enunciated that connect the reduction in the dominance of Havana with the slowdown in urban growth and the urbanization of the countryside. Evidence is presented which suggests achievements along all of these dimensions, but by 1970 they were, as yet, quite limited.

Effects of yearling, juvenile and adult survival on reef manta ray (Manta alfredi) demography

PubMed Central

van der Ouderaa, Isabelle B.C.; Tibiriçá, Yara

2016-01-01

Background The trade in manta ray gill plates has considerably increased over the last two decades. The resulting increases in ray mortality, in addition to mortality caused by by-catch, has caused many ray populations to decrease in size. The aim of this study was to ascertain how yearling and juvenile growth and survival, and adult survival and reproduction affect reef manta ray (Manta alfredi) population change, to increase our understanding of manta ray demography and thereby improve conservation research and measures for these fish. Methods We developed a population projection model for reef manta rays, and used published life history data on yearling and juvenile growth and adult reproduction to parameterise the model. Because little is known about reef manta ray yearling and juvenile survival, we conducted our analyses using a range of plausible survival rate values for yearlings, juveniles and adults. Results The model accurately captured observed variation in population growth rate, lifetime reproductive success and cohort generation time in different reef manta ray populations. Our demographic analyses revealed a range of population consequences in response to variation in demographic rates. For example, an increase in yearling or adult survival rates always elicited greater responses in population growth rate, lifetime reproductive success and cohort generation time than the same increase in juvenile survival rate. The population growth rate increased linearly, but lifetime reproductive success and cohort generation time increased at an accelerating rate with increasing yearling or adult survival rates. Hence, even a small increase in survival rate could increase lifetime reproductive success by one pup, and cohort generation time by several years. Elasticity analyses revealed that, depending on survival rate values of all life stages, the population growth rate is either most sensitive to changes in the rate with which juveniles survive but stay juveniles (i.e., do not mature into adults) or to changes in adult survival rate. However, when assessing these results against estimates on population growth and adult survival rates for populations off the coasts of Mozambique and Japan, we found that the population growth rate is predicted to be always most sensitive to changes in the adult survival rate. Discussion It is important to gain an in-depth understanding of reef manta ray life histories, particularly of yearling and adult survival rates, as these can influence reef manta ray population dynamics in a variety of ways. For declining populations in particular, it is crucial to know which life stage should be targeted for their conservation. For one such declining population off the coast of Mozambique, adult annual survival rate has the greatest effect on population growth, and by increasing adult survival by protecting adult aggregation sites, this population’s decline could be halted or even reversed. PMID:27635337

Scan-o-matic: High-Resolution Microbial Phenomics at a Massive Scale

PubMed Central

Zackrisson, Martin; Hallin, Johan; Ottosson, Lars-Göran; Dahl, Peter; Fernandez-Parada, Esteban; Ländström, Erik; Fernandez-Ricaud, Luciano; Kaferle, Petra; Skyman, Andreas; Stenberg, Simon; Omholt, Stig; Petrovič, Uroš; Warringer, Jonas; Blomberg, Anders

2016-01-01

The capacity to map traits over large cohorts of individuals—phenomics—lags far behind the explosive development in genomics. For microbes, the estimation of growth is the key phenotype because of its link to fitness. We introduce an automated microbial phenomics framework that delivers accurate, precise, and highly resolved growth phenotypes at an unprecedented scale. Advancements were achieved through the introduction of transmissive scanning hardware and software technology, frequent acquisition of exact colony population size measurements, extraction of population growth rates from growth curves, and removal of spatial bias by reference-surface normalization. Our prototype arrangement automatically records and analyzes close to 100,000 growth curves in parallel. We demonstrate the power of the approach by extending and nuancing the known salt-defense biology in baker’s yeast. The introduced framework represents a major advance in microbial phenomics by providing high-quality data for extensive cohorts of individuals and generating well-populated and standardized phenomics databases PMID:27371952

Inheritable copper tolerance in the chlorophyte macroalga Enteromorpha intestinalis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lewis, S.; Williams, P.; Donkin, M.

1995-12-31

A study was carried out to determine if a population of Enteromorpha intestinalis, from a metal polluted site, exhibited copper tolerance. This work was in preparation for investigating stress protein patterns in copper tolerant and sensitive populations. The effects of copper on growth of E. intestinalis from three clean and one metal polluted site were compared. Growth was assessed by incubating thallus sections in a range of copper solutions and measuring increase in length. Offspring were cultured from clean and polluted sites and the effects of copper on their growth assessed, to determine if any tolerance was inheritable. Concentrations ofmore » the trace metals; copper, zinc and manganese in the populations were also determined. Over the range of copper concentrations tested (0--150 {micro}g/i), growth of the polluted site populations was not significantly affected (P > 0.05). However growth of the clean site populations was significantly depressed by exposure to 50 {micro}g/l. This pattern of response was also exhibited by the offspring. Trace metal concentrations in the clean site populations were very similar, however the polluted site population contained {sup {minus}}10 times the control site values of manganese and {approximately}35 times the values of zinc and copper. The results suggest that the polluted site population of E. intestinalis has developed a degree of copper tolerance which appears to have a genetic basis. This investigation is consistent with previous work into copper tolerance in ship-fouling populations of E. intestinalis var. compressa. A commercially available HSP70 antibody with a high degree of cross-reactivity to E. intestinalis has been identified and used to screen samples of the seaweed from the aforementioned populations.« less

Ultrasonographic fetal growth charts: an informatic approach by quantitative analysis of the impact of ethnicity on diagnoses based on a preliminary report on Salentinian population.

PubMed

Tinelli, Andrea; Bochicchio, Mario Alessandro; Vaira, Lucia; Malvasi, Antonio

2014-01-01

Clear guidance on fetal growth assessment is important because of the strong links between growth restriction or macrosomia and adverse perinatal outcome in order to reduce associated morbidity and mortality. Fetal growth curves are extensively adopted to track fetal sizes from the early phases of pregnancy up to delivery. In the literature, a large variety of reference charts are reported but they are mostly up to five decades old. Furthermore, they do not address several variables and factors (e.g., ethnicity, foods, lifestyle, smoke, and physiological and pathological variables), which are very important for a correct evaluation of the fetal well-being. Therefore, currently adopted fetal growth charts are inadequate to support the melting pot of ethnic groups and lifestyles of our society. Customized fetal growth charts are needed to provide an accurate fetal assessment and to avoid unnecessary obstetric interventions at the time of delivery. Starting from the development of a growth chart purposely built for a specific population, in the paper, authors quantify and analyse the impact of the adoption of wrong growth charts on fetal diagnoses. These results come from a preliminary evaluation of a new open service developed to produce personalized growth charts for specific ethnicity, lifestyle, and other parameters.

A Self-Sustained Education System for a Developing Country: The Case of the Socialist Republic of Viet Nam.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tran, Dien Ngoc

Viet Nam's average annual population growth rate is 2.6%, which accounts for a large youth population: 37.7% of the total population is under age 15, compared with an average of 20% in developed or newly industrialized countries. A free basic education for all children is almost impossible to provide. With consideration of the Vietnamese people's…

Development of Morphological Awareness and Vocabulary Knowledge in Spanish-Speaking Language Minority Learners: A Parallel Process Latent Growth Curve Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kieffer, Michael J.; Lesaux, Nonie K.

2012-01-01

Despite acknowledgement of the limited English vocabularies demonstrated by many language minority (LM) learners, few studies have identified skills that relate to variation in vocabulary growth in this population. This study investigated the concurrent development of morphological awareness (i.e., students' understanding of complex words as…

Past and projected rural land conversion in the US at state, regional, and national levels

EPA Science Inventory

The developed land area of the US increased by 14.2 million hectares between 1982 and 2003. Along with a projected US population increase to more than 360 million individuals by 2030 is an expected continuation of expanding rural land development. Related to population growth, ru...

Community Change and the Farm Sector: Impacts of Rural Development on Agriculture.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beaulieu, Lionel J.; Molnar, Joseph J.

Findings from current literature form the basis for this examination of five critical elements of change and development within the local community setting which impact on agriculture: population, employment, land, water, and environment. Renewed rural population growth during the 1970's has reversed small farm trends but placed strains on local…

Population Growth and Family Planning. IN Visitors' Information Special Report. SO 6.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Heisse, Thomas

The rapid and still-accelerating increase in the world's population, especially in developing nations, will have a number of serious economic, social, and ecological consequences for the whole world. Germany is attempting to help solve these problems by providing family planning and poverty alleviation assistance to developing nations. German…

Population growth, agrarian peasant economy and environmental degradation in Tanzania.

PubMed

Madulu, N F

1995-03-01

Population strategies to relieve the density pressures on land and resources in Tanzania have not considered the basic causes of population growth. Resettlement results in the same environmental degradation as in the original settlement. There should be a reduction in the population growth and planning of proper land use and resource exploitation before resettlement. Rural development must include a decline in the dependency on subsistence agriculture. Population in Tanzania increased by 213% during 1948-88. An absolute increase in population size during 1978-88 is recorded despite a slight decline in the rate of growth. Death rates declined, but birth rates were relatively stable at around 50 per 1000 population. Regions with the highest growth rates were Dar es Salaam (4.8%), Rukwa (4.3%), Arusha (3.8%), Mbeya (3.1%), and Ruvuma (3.2%). The regions with the lowest rates were Tanga and Kilimanjaro (2.1%), Coast (2.1%), Lindi (2%), and Mtwara (1.4%). Low growth rates are attributed to low fertility and high infertility. Other factors affecting high growth rates are culture, rates of natural increase, intensity of internal and international migration, climatic conditions, and availability of resources. In 1988 46% of the population was under 15 years old. Per capita land availability declined from 11.8 hectares in 1948 to 3.8 hectares in 1988. The number of landless peasants increased. Productivity declined, and distances to farms increased. The total fertility rate was 6.5 children per woman in 1988 and 6.1 during 1991-92. Slight declines were apparent in the crude birth rate also. High fertility was a response to universal marriage, low contraceptive use (7% using modern methods during 1991-92), declining lactation periods, high mortality rates, and old traditions favoring large families. Children were used extensively in time-consuming and labor-intensive activities, such as fetching water. The mean number of children ever born was higher among women with 1-4 years of schooling compared to women with no formal education and women with 5 or more years of education. Population growth contributes to deforestation, soil erosion, desertification, famine, drought, flooding, and demand for firewood.

Vast differences.

PubMed

Tabai, I

1994-06-01

There are many islands in the South Pacific, each with its own population, socioeconomic, and cultural concerns and interests. The Secretary-General of the South Pacific Forum and former president of Kiribati stresses the need to consider population growth and size as well as population distribution. In the island countries of the Pacific, some populations reside in remote, rural areas, while others inhabit densely-populated, urban settlements. Both situations present different problems for the provision of services and for bringing about social and economic development. Current political and economic relationships establish the direction of population movement in the South Pacific, while the level of social and economic development and the existence of established kinship networks provide the means of migration. Evidence points toward an increasing level of urbanization in the region. To a lesser extent, there is also movement between islands and between rural areas on the larger islands. While migrants to more developed areas may earn better standards of living and send remittances home, second generation migrants may not find steady employment unless there is growth in economic opportunity in urban areas. Remittances will also likely decline as decision-making responsibility shifts to younger generations. Governments need to focus greater attention on these issues.

Population and Human Development: A Course Curriculum Including Lesson Plans, Activities, and Bibliography. Revised.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murphy, Elaine M.; Long, Alison T.

This course outline suggests materials and learning activities on the interrelated causes and consequences of population growth and other population matters. The document describes 15 class sessions which integrate information for sociology, anthropology, psychology, biology, animal behavior, and education. Topics include the history of human…

World Population in Transition.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Merrick, Thomas W.; And Others

1986-01-01

This issue discusses world population trends and their implications for more and less developed countries. There have been two periods of major population expansion since 1750 with the first lasting almost 200 years and the second surge occurring after World War II. Growth rates in industrialized countries are now very low with fertility below…

Understanding Underrepresented Populations in the Business School Pipeline. GMAC® Research Report RR-16-02

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Daniel, Rhonda; Caruthers, Devina

2016-01-01

This white paper, "Understanding Underrepresented Populations in the Business School Pipeline," examines the shifting US racial and ethnic demographics and projected growth among US minority populations and the challenges--and incentives--these developments pose for US business schools to increase the opportunities for minority students…

[Problems of population and agricultural development in Rwanda].

PubMed

Sibomana, J M

1984-01-01

The primary goal of law 3/81 created by the National Office of Population (l'Office National de la Population--ONAPU) in 1981, is to establish a demographic policy consistent with national realities and designed to ease the problem of overpopulation. ONAPU supports family planning for all of Rwanda as an approach to the population situation. The family planning objective promotes conscientious and wanted procreation. It encourages couples to have children in accordance with a preestablished plan, which takes into account the size of the family and the calendar of procreation. Unmatched population growth with limited economic growth have been major concerns for ONAPU; hence, emphasis on maintaining a level of equilibrium between the 2 is a national priority. In the meantime, increased population growth has been causing agricultural problems. Small amounts of land available for cultivation and rudimentary agricultural technology necessitate a change in the financial organization of this sector. Simultaneously, there is an abundance of agricultural workers and a threat of famine due to population demands outstripping subsistence yields. If the population growth rate of Rwanda remains at 3.79%, the land will be insufficient. To avoid future problems, a financial revolution which involves both the agricultural and nonagricultural sectors must be planned. Economic, social, and cultural reorganization is critical, especially for family planning. The policy of spacing births will not be accepted without amelioration 1st family and community health.

Development of genetic diversity, differentiation and structure over 500 years in four ponderosa pine populations.

PubMed

Lesser, M R; Parchman, T L; Jackson, S T

2013-05-01

Population history plays an important role in shaping contemporary levels of genetic variation and geographic structure. This is especially true in small, isolated range-margin populations, where effects of inbreeding, genetic drift and gene flow may be more pronounced than in large continuous populations. Effects of landscape fragmentation and isolation distance may have implications for persistence of range-margin populations if they are demographic sinks. We studied four small, disjunct populations of ponderosa pine over a 500-year period. We coupled demographic data obtained through dendroecological methods with microsatellite data to discern how and when contemporary levels of allelic diversity, among and within-population levels of differentiation, and geographic structure, arose. Alleles accumulated rapidly following initial colonization, demonstrating proportionally high levels of gene flow into the populations. At population sizes of approximately 100 individuals, allele accumulation saturated. Levels of genetic differentiation among populations (F(ST) and Jost's D(est)) and diversity within populations (F(IS)) remained stable through time. There was no evidence of geographic genetic structure at any time in the populations' history. Proportionally, high gene flow in the early stages of population growth resulted in rapid accumulation of alleles and quickly created relatively homogenous genetic patterns among populations. Our study demonstrates that contemporary levels of genetic diversity were formed quickly and early in population development. How contemporary genetic diversity accumulates over time is a key facet of understanding population growth and development. This is especially relevant given the extent and speed at which species ranges are predicted to shift in the coming century. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Echoes from the past: Regional variations in recovery within a harbour seal population

PubMed Central

Reijnders, Peter J. H.; Cremer, Jenny; Meesters, Erik; Kirkwood, Roger; Jensen, Lasse Fast; Jeβ, Armin; Galatius, Anders; Teilmann, Jonas; Aarts, Geert

2018-01-01

Terrestrial and marine wildlife populations have been severely reduced by hunting, fishing and habitat destruction, especially in the last centuries. Although management regulations have led to the recovery of some populations, the underlying processes are not always well understood. This study uses a 40-year time series of counts of harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) in the Wadden Sea to study these processes, and demonstrates the influence of historical regional differences in management regimes on the recovery of this population. While the Wadden Sea is considered one ecologically coupled zone, with a distinct harbour seal population, the area is divided into four geo-political regions i.e. the Netherlands, Lower Saxony including Hamburg, Schleswig-Holstein and Denmark. Gradually, seal hunting was banned between 1962 and 1977 in the different regions. Counts of moulting harbour seals and pup counts, obtained during aerial surveys between 1974 and 2014, show a population growth from approximately 4500 to 39,000 individuals. Population growth models were developed to assess if population growth differed between regions, taking into account two Phocine Distemper Virus (PDV) epizootics, in 1988 and 2002 which seriously affected the population. After a slow start prior to the first epizootic, the overall population grew exponentially at rates close to assumed maximum rates of increase in a harbour seal population. Recently, growth slowed down, potentially indicative of approaching carrying capacity. Regional differences in growth rates were demonstrated, with the highest recovery in Netherlands after the first PDV epizootic (i.e. 17.9%), suggesting that growth was fuelled by migration from the other regions, where growth remained at or below the intrinsic growth rate (13%). The seals’ distribution changed, and although the proportion of seals counted in the German regions declined, they remained by far the most important pupping region, with approximately 70% of all pups being born there. It is hypothesised that differences in hunting regime, preceding the protection in the 1960’s and 1970’s, created unbalance in the distribution of breeding females throughout the Wadden Sea, which prevailed for decades. Breeding site fidelity promoted the growth in pup numbers at less affected breeding sites, while recolonisation of new breeding areas would be suppressed by the philopatry displayed by the animals born there. This study shows that for long-lived species, variable management regimes in this case hunting regulations, across a species’ range can drive population dynamics for several generations. PMID:29298310

Echoes from the past: Regional variations in recovery within a harbour seal population.

PubMed

Brasseur, Sophie M J M; Reijnders, Peter J H; Cremer, Jenny; Meesters, Erik; Kirkwood, Roger; Jensen, Lasse Fast; Jeβ, Armin; Galatius, Anders; Teilmann, Jonas; Aarts, Geert

2018-01-01

Terrestrial and marine wildlife populations have been severely reduced by hunting, fishing and habitat destruction, especially in the last centuries. Although management regulations have led to the recovery of some populations, the underlying processes are not always well understood. This study uses a 40-year time series of counts of harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) in the Wadden Sea to study these processes, and demonstrates the influence of historical regional differences in management regimes on the recovery of this population. While the Wadden Sea is considered one ecologically coupled zone, with a distinct harbour seal population, the area is divided into four geo-political regions i.e. the Netherlands, Lower Saxony including Hamburg, Schleswig-Holstein and Denmark. Gradually, seal hunting was banned between 1962 and 1977 in the different regions. Counts of moulting harbour seals and pup counts, obtained during aerial surveys between 1974 and 2014, show a population growth from approximately 4500 to 39,000 individuals. Population growth models were developed to assess if population growth differed between regions, taking into account two Phocine Distemper Virus (PDV) epizootics, in 1988 and 2002 which seriously affected the population. After a slow start prior to the first epizootic, the overall population grew exponentially at rates close to assumed maximum rates of increase in a harbour seal population. Recently, growth slowed down, potentially indicative of approaching carrying capacity. Regional differences in growth rates were demonstrated, with the highest recovery in Netherlands after the first PDV epizootic (i.e. 17.9%), suggesting that growth was fuelled by migration from the other regions, where growth remained at or below the intrinsic growth rate (13%). The seals' distribution changed, and although the proportion of seals counted in the German regions declined, they remained by far the most important pupping region, with approximately 70% of all pups being born there. It is hypothesised that differences in hunting regime, preceding the protection in the 1960's and 1970's, created unbalance in the distribution of breeding females throughout the Wadden Sea, which prevailed for decades. Breeding site fidelity promoted the growth in pup numbers at less affected breeding sites, while recolonisation of new breeding areas would be suppressed by the philopatry displayed by the animals born there. This study shows that for long-lived species, variable management regimes in this case hunting regulations, across a species' range can drive population dynamics for several generations.

How Much Nutrition for How Much Growth?
.

PubMed

Hermanussen, Michael; Wit, Jan M

2017-01-01

Increasing agreement exists about the use of length-for-age as the indicator of choice in monitoring the long-term impact of chronic nutritional deficiency. Yet, already shortly after World War I, a causal link between nutrition and growth was questioned. Also, modern meta-analyses of controlled nutrition intervention studies show that the net effect of nutrition on body height is small. Broad evidence obtained from historic observations on human starvation made since the 19th century questions an obligatory association between nutrition and growth. Many additional explanations for the apparent shortness of people from developing countries have been published since, focusing on genetic factors, environment, economy, epigenetics, and, recently, psychosocial factors, such as strategic growth adjustments suggesting stature to be a social signal. The marked variability in average population height of up to 20 cm within a few generations complicates the use of normative growth charts, even though they have been widely propagated. We support the concept of local growth references, for example using the "Synthetic Growth References" methodology. These references combine local growth information obtained from a given population of interest and common features of human population growth, with LMS values for height, weight, and BMI from birth to maturity.
. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

A comparison of three infant skinfold reference standards: Tanner-Whitehouse, Cambridge Infant Growth Study, and WHO Child Growth Standards.

PubMed

Miller, Elizabeth M

2015-10-01

As researchers increasingly focus on early infancy as a critical period of development, there is a greater need for methodological tools that can address all aspects of infant growth. Infant skinfold measures, in particular, are measurements in need of reliable reference standards that encompass all ages of infants and provide an accurate assessment of the relative fatness of a population. This report evaluates three published reference standards for infant skinfold measurements: Tanner-Whitehouse, Cambridge Infant Growth Study, and the World Health Organization (WHO) Child Growth Standards. To assess these standards, triceps skinfolds from a population of rural Kenyan infants (n = 250) and triceps skinfolds and subscapular skinfolds from infants in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999-2002 (NHANES; n = 1197) were calculated as z-scores from the lambda-mu-sigma curves provided by each reference population. The Tanner-Whitehouse standards represented both the Kenyan and US populations as lean, while the Cambridge standards represented both populations as overfat. The distribution of z-scores based on the WHO standards fell in the middle, but excluded infants from both populations who were below the age of 3 months. Based on these results, the WHO reference standard is the best skinfold reference standard for infants over the age of 3 months. For populations with infants of all ages, the Tanner-Whitehouse standards are recommended, despite representing both study populations as underfat. Ideally, the WHO will extend their reference standard to include infants between the ages of 0 and 3 months. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Projecting Future Urbanization with Prescott College's Spatial Growth Model to Promote Environmental Sustainability and Smart Growth, A Case Study in Atlanta, Georgia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Crosson, William; Limaye, Ashutosh; Johnson, Hoyt; Quattrochi, Dale; Lapenta, William; Khan, Maudood

2006-01-01

Planning is an integral element of good management and necessary to anticipate events not merely respond to them. Projecting the quantity and spatial distribution of urban growth is essential to effectively plan for the delivery of city services and to evaluate potential environmental impacts. The major drivers of growth in large urban areas are increasing population, employment opportunities, and quality of life attractors such as a favorable climate and recreation opportunities. The spatial distribution of urban growth is dictated by the amount and location of developable land, topography, energy and water resources, transportation network, climate change, and the existing land use configuration. The Atlanta region is growing very rapidly both in population and the consumption of forestland or low-density residential development. Air pollution and water availability are significant ongoing environmental issues. The Prescott Spatial Growth Model (SGM) was used to make growth projections for the metropolitan Atlanta region to 2010,2020 and 2030 and results used for environmental assessment in both business as usual and smart growth scenarios. The Prescott SGM is a tool that uses an ESRI ArcView extension and can be applied at the parcel level or more coarse spatial scales and can accommodate a wide range of user inputs to develop any number of growth rules each of which can be weighted depending on growth assumptions. These projections were used in conjunction with meteorological and air quality models to evaluate future environmental impacts. This presentation will focus on the application of the SGM to the 13-County Atlanta Regional Commission planning jurisdiction as a case study. The SGM will be described, including how rule sets are developed and the decision process for allocation of future development to available land use categories. Data inputs required to effectively run the model will be discussed. Spatial growth projections for ten, twenty, and thirty year planning horizons will be presented and results discussed, including regional climate and air quality impacts.

Population control II: The population establishment today.

PubMed

Hartmann, B

1997-01-01

Although population assistance represents a relatively small share of official development assistance, it influences many other aspects of development planning. The organizations that comprise the population establishment have a common purpose--the reduction of population growth in the Third World--but they are not homogeneous and sometimes have conflicting goals and strategies. National governments, multilateral agencies, nongovernmental organizations, foundations, academic centers, and pressure groups all contribute to creating and sustaining what has become a virtual population control industry. Through scholarships, travel grants, awards, and favorable publicity, Third World elites have been encouraged to join the population establishment. The World Bank, the U.S. Agency for International Development, and the U.N. Fund for Population Activities have pursued explicit strategies for pressuring Third World governments to design and implement population policies, most recently in Africa.

Projected Regional Climate in 2025 Due to Urban Growth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, J. Marshall; Manyin, Michael; Messen, Dmitry

2005-01-01

By 2025, 60 to 80 percent of the world s population will live in urban environments. Additionally, the following facts published by the United Nations further illustrates how cities will evolve in the future. Urban areas in the developing world are growing very rapidly. The urban growth rate will continue to be particularly rapid in the urban areas of less developed regions, averaging 2.4 per cent per year during 2000-2030, consistent with a doubling time of 29 years. The urbanization process will continue worldwide. The concentration of population in cities is expected to continue so that, by 2030, 84 percent of the inhabitants of more developed countries will be urban dwellers. Urbanization impacts the whole hierarchy of human settlements. In 2000,24.8 per cent of the world population lived in urban settlements with fewer than 500,000 inhabitants and by 2015 that proportion will likely rise to 27.1 per cent.

A PROJECTION OF URBAN GROWTH IN ATLANTA, GEORGIA

EPA Science Inventory

The U. S. Environmental Protection Agency's Regional Vulnerability Assessment Program(ReVA) is designed to develop and demonstrate approaches to identify the ecosystems at the greatest risk from regional population growth and economic activity. As part of this program, a cellular...

Trends in transit-oriented development 2000-2010.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-05-01

After decades of decline, public transportation ridership grew 36 percent from 1995 through 2008, almost three times the growth rate of : the U.S. population (14%) and substantially more than the growth for vehicle miles of travel on our nations s...

Time indices of multiphasic development in genotypes of sweet cherry are similar from dormancy to cessation of pit growth.

PubMed

Gibeaut, David M; Whiting, Matthew D; Einhorn, Todd

2017-02-01

The archetypical double sigmoid-shaped growth curve of the sweet cherry drupe (Prunus avium) does not address critical development from eco-dormancy to anthesis and has not been correlated to reproductive bud development. Accurate representation of the growth and development of post-anthesis ovaries is confounded by anthesis timing, fruiting-density and the presence of unfertilized and defective ovaries whose growth differs from those that persist to maturation. These factors were addressed to assess pre-anthesis and full-season growth and development of three sweet cherry cultivars, 'Chelan', 'Bing' and 'Sweetheart', differing primarily in seasonal duration and fruit size. Volume was calculated from photographic measurements of reproductive buds, ovaries and pits at all phases of development. A population of unfertilized ovaries was produced using bee-exclusion netting to enable a statistical comparison with an open pollinated population to detect differences in size and shape between successful and failing fruit growth. Anthesis timing and fruiting-density were manipulated by floral extinction at the spur and whole-tree scales. Developmental time indices were analysed using polynomial curve fitting of log-transformed data supported by Richards and logistic functions of asymptotic growth of the pit and maturing fruit, respectively. Pre-anthesis growth began at the completion of eco-dormancy. A slight decline in relative growth rate (RGR) was observed during bud scale separation approx. -16 d from anthesis (DFA) before resumption of exponential growth to a maximum about 14 DFA. After anthesis, reduced growth of unfertilized or defective ovaries was partly discriminated from successful fruit at 5 DFA and completely at 25 DFA. Time indices of RGR inflections were similar among cultivars when adjusted for anthesis date alone, until the end of pit growth. Asymptotic growth of the pit underpinned the declining growth rate of fruit at the end of the first exponential growth phase. Duration of the subsequent expansive growth phase accounted for genotypic differences in seasonal duration and final size. Pit size and final fruit size were inversely related to fruiting-density. Developmental differences among early, mid and late maturing cultivars were not detected until the final growth period. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Time indices of multiphasic development in genotypes of sweet cherry are similar from dormancy to cessation of pit growth

PubMed Central

Gibeaut, David M.; Whiting, Matthew D.; Einhorn, Todd

2017-01-01

Background and Aims The archetypical double sigmoid-shaped growth curve of the sweet cherry drupe (Prunus avium) does not address critical development from eco-dormancy to anthesis and has not been correlated to reproductive bud development. Accurate representation of the growth and development of post-anthesis ovaries is confounded by anthesis timing, fruiting-density and the presence of unfertilized and defective ovaries whose growth differs from those that persist to maturation. These factors were addressed to assess pre-anthesis and full-season growth and development of three sweet cherry cultivars, ‘Chelan’, ‘Bing’ and ‘Sweetheart’, differing primarily in seasonal duration and fruit size. Methods Volume was calculated from photographic measurements of reproductive buds, ovaries and pits at all phases of development. A population of unfertilized ovaries was produced using bee-exclusion netting to enable a statistical comparison with an open pollinated population to detect differences in size and shape between successful and failing fruit growth. Anthesis timing and fruiting-density were manipulated by floral extinction at the spur and whole-tree scales. Developmental time indices were analysed using polynomial curve fitting of log-transformed data supported by Richards and logistic functions of asymptotic growth of the pit and maturing fruit, respectively. Key Results Pre-anthesis growth began at the completion of eco-dormancy. A slight decline in relative growth rate (RGR) was observed during bud scale separation approx. −16 d from anthesis (DFA) before resumption of exponential growth to a maximum about 14 DFA. After anthesis, reduced growth of unfertilized or defective ovaries was partly discriminated from successful fruit at 5 DFA and completely at 25 DFA. Time indices of RGR inflections were similar among cultivars when adjusted for anthesis date alone, until the end of pit growth. Asymptotic growth of the pit underpinned the declining growth rate of fruit at the end of the first exponential growth phase. Duration of the subsequent expansive growth phase accounted for genotypic differences in seasonal duration and final size. Pit size and final fruit size were inversely related to fruiting-density. Conclusions Developmental differences among early, mid and late maturing cultivars were not detected until the final growth period. PMID:28064193

Population growth and development in the Third World: the neocolonial context.

PubMed

Patterson, J G; Shrestha, N R

1988-01-01

Less developed countries (LDCs) that were colonies of other nations continued operating under the same social and political structures set up by the former ruling nations. The small minority of elites in the LDCs held on to the power acquired during colonial times. In order to preserve their political and financial status after independence, they maintained their close linkages to the capitalist nations and their multinational corporations (MNCs). The elites did not generally have popular support, however. These capitalist nations and their commercial interests continue to dictate most LDCs development process which supports the financial interests of the MNCs and the local elites and not those of the majority, the poor. The poor realize that they are trapped and unable to break away from the economic and political structures, therefore, to assure some form of security, they have many children which exacerbates their poverty. Yet population control policies based on Malthusian theory and those that rely on such undimensional, technical approaches as family planning alone cannot cure the multidimensional social problems of high population growth and poverty. Neither the Malthusian nor Marxist theories totally explain the situation in the LDCs or even provide workable solutions. Research on population and development in LDCs needs to address both the Malthusian concern for the problems posed by high growth rates and the Marxist critique of class struggle in development trends. To eliminate the trap of poverty and dependent economies, each country must design its own remedies based on its history, culture, and geography and alter the prevailing social, economic, and political power structures in favor of the poor. 6 propositions that must be modified to each nation's particular problems and needs are presented to guide LDCs in formulating or reformulating policies to alleviate the problems of population and poverty.

Order of events matter: comparing discrete models for optimal control of species augmentation.

PubMed

Bodine, Erin N; Gross, Louis J; Lenhart, Suzanne

2012-01-01

We investigate optimal timing of augmentation of an endangered/threatened species population in a target region by moving individuals from a reserve or captive population. This is formulated as a discrete-time optimal control problem in which augmentation occurs once per time period over a fixed number of time periods. The population model assumes the Allee effect growth functions in both target and reserve populations and the control objective is to maximize the target and reserve population sizes over the time horizon while accounting for costs of augmentation. Two possible orders of events are considered for different life histories of the species relative to augmentation time: move individuals either before or after population growth occurs. The control variable is the proportion of the reserve population to be moved to the target population. We develop solutions and illustrate numerical results which indicate circumstances for which optimal augmentation strategies depend upon the order of events.

Numerical solution of a logistic growth model for a population with Allee effect considering fuzzy initial values and fuzzy parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amarti, Z.; Nurkholipah, N. S.; Anggriani, N.; Supriatna, A. K.

2018-03-01

Predicting the future of population number is among the important factors that affect the consideration in preparing a good management for the population. This has been done by various known method, one among them is by developing a mathematical model describing the growth of the population. The model usually takes form in a differential equation or a system of differential equations, depending on the complexity of the underlying properties of the population. The most widely used growth models currently are those having a sigmoid solution of time series, including the Verhulst logistic equation and the Gompertz equation. In this paper we consider the Allee effect of the Verhulst’s logistic population model. The Allee effect is a phenomenon in biology showing a high correlation between population size or density and the mean individual fitness of the population. The method used to derive the solution is the Runge-Kutta numerical scheme, since it is in general regarded as one among the good numerical scheme which is relatively easy to implement. Further exploration is done via the fuzzy theoretical approach to accommodate the impreciseness of the initial values and parameters in the model.

Population perspective is widening. Interview: Louise Lassonde.

PubMed

1992-01-01

Commentary is provided on the link between poverty and population growth, the link between population growth and the environment, solutions in general and at the village level, integrated programs, urban growth, and critical policies. Developing countries do recognize that rural poverty is part of the cycle of urban migration and population dynamics. Poverty also must be treated separately from population growth issues. An important issue is the reproductive health of women, their economic opportunities, and empowerment in decision making and access to information. Another important issue is the link between human species survival and the biosphere. Both issues need to be addressed and there is no contradiction between the issues; each is reinforcing of the other in policy. At the village level improving the personal, social, and environmental gains for women in villages with high fertility and soil erosion, deforestation, and water shortages serves both concerns. Programmatically, this means more information for women, better reproductive health services for women, improved social services, tree planting programs, water use programs, and environmental protection programs. Central planning is needed, but also decentralization in implementation and decision making. Urban population growth does not lend itself to ready-made solutions. The positive is that it offers modernization and the possibility of improved social services; the negative is how to provide the services. Both population dynamics and underlying infrastructure and urban management must work together. Recommendations are 3-fold. 1) Technology, the production/consumption process, and population dynamics are the major driving forces of environmental change. 2) The planning approach needs to be reconsidered: population dynamics and implications must be integrated at every level of planning. 3) Policies that recognize the aforementioned points will induce political will to implement activities and programs.

Past and projected rural land conversion in the US at state, regional, and national levels

Treesearch

Eric M. White; Anita T. Morzillo; Ralph J. Alig

2009-01-01

The developed land area of the United States increased by 14,2 million hectares between 1982 and 2003. Along with a projected U.S. population increase to more than 360 million individuals by 2030, is an expected continuation of expanding rural land development. Related to population growth, rural land development and the associated loss of rural open space are expected...

Population and development problems: a critical assessment of conventional wisdom. The case of Zimbabwe.

PubMed

Sibanda, A E

1988-01-01

Conventional wisdom, as reflected in reports by the World Bank and the Whitsun Foundation, maintains that control of population growth is the key strategy for stimulating socioeconomic development and ending widespread poverty. The Witsun Foundation has criticized the Government of Zimbabwe for failing to include specific policies for population control in its National Transitional Development Plan. the report further expressed alarm about future availability of land to contain Zimbabwe's growing population. Communal areas are designed for a maximum of 325,000 families yet presently contain 700-800,000 families. This Malthusian, deterministic emphasis on population growth as the source of social ills ignores the broader, complex set of socioeconomic, historical, and political factors that determine material life. Any analysis of population that fails to consider the class structure of society, the type of division of labor, and forms of property and production can produce only meaningless abstractions. For example, consideration of crowding in communal areas must include consideration of inequitable patterns of land ownership in sub-Saharan Africa. Unemployment must be viewed within the context of a capitalist economic structure that relies on an industrial reserve army of labor to ensure acceptance of low wages and labor-intensive conditions. While it is accepted that population growth is creating specific and real problems in Zimbabwe and other African countries, these problems could be ameliorated by land reform and restructuring of the export-oriented colonial economies. Similarly, birth control should not be promoted as the solution to social problems, yet family planning services should be available to raise the status of women. Literacy, agrarian reform, agricultural modernization, and industrialization campaigns free from the dominance of Western capitalism represent the true solutions to Zimbabwe's problems.

A thought on the integration of poverty relief with family planning.

PubMed

Yang, K

1997-01-01

This article discusses the relationship between population growth and poverty in China, the issue of overpopulation in poor areas, and the need for programs that integrate population control with economic development. The number of Chinese living in poverty declined from about 250 million in 1978 to 80 million in 1993. In March 1994, the government initiated a poverty relief program that aimed to eliminate all poverty by 2001. By 1995, the number of poor declined to 65 million. The causes of poverty are numerous, but include overpopulation. Over the decades, demographic trends in poor areas reveal higher fertility, lower mortality, and higher growth. Poverty appears to be concentrated in 18 provinces and autonomous regions. Poor areas have higher rates of early marriage, early childbirth, and multiple children. Poor areas also have higher rates of disabilities and disease and lower levels of education. Poor areas have double the national percentage of illiterates. Many people living in poor areas are disadvantaged by poor transportation, remote locations, backward production methods, and a lack of a social security system. Scientific knowledge about contraception and quality child care are difficult to diffuse in poor areas. The size of the population denominator directly affects per capita income and per capita grain production. Increases in population put pressure on investment resources for production and development. A larger work force adds to the problem of unemployment. A large population size puts pressure on arable land. Poor areas need a better educated population. Sustainable development requires fertility decline. Integrated family planning programs popularize slogans such as "stabilize grain yield, increase income, and control population growth." Integrated programs have had variable success. Countermeasures must be taken to prevent the association of large families with wealth. Leadership is essential.

Resource demand growth and sustainability due to increased world consumption

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Balatsky, Alexander V.; Balatsky, Galina I.; Borysov, Stanislav S.

The paper aims at continuing the discussion on sustainability and attempts to forecast the impossibility of the expanding consumption worldwide due to the planet’s limited resources. As the population of China, India and other developing countries continue to increase, they would also require more natural and financial resources to sustain their growth. We coarsely estimate the volumes of these resources (energy, food, freshwater) and the gross domestic product (GDP) that would need to be achieved to bring the population of India and China to the current levels of consumption in the United States. We also provide estimations for potentially neededmore » immediate growth of the world resource consumption to meet this equality requirement. Given the tight historical correlation between GDP and energy consumption, the needed increase of GDP per capita in the developing world to the levels of the U.S. would deplete explored fossil fuel reserves in less than two decades. These estimates predict that the world economy would need to find a development model where growth would be achieved without heavy dependence on fossil fuels.« less

Resource demand growth and sustainability due to increased world consumption

DOE PAGES

Balatsky, Alexander V.; Balatsky, Galina I.; Borysov, Stanislav S.

2015-03-20

The paper aims at continuing the discussion on sustainability and attempts to forecast the impossibility of the expanding consumption worldwide due to the planet’s limited resources. As the population of China, India and other developing countries continue to increase, they would also require more natural and financial resources to sustain their growth. We coarsely estimate the volumes of these resources (energy, food, freshwater) and the gross domestic product (GDP) that would need to be achieved to bring the population of India and China to the current levels of consumption in the United States. We also provide estimations for potentially neededmore » immediate growth of the world resource consumption to meet this equality requirement. Given the tight historical correlation between GDP and energy consumption, the needed increase of GDP per capita in the developing world to the levels of the U.S. would deplete explored fossil fuel reserves in less than two decades. These estimates predict that the world economy would need to find a development model where growth would be achieved without heavy dependence on fossil fuels.« less

Growth performance of affluent Indian children is similar to that in developed countries.

PubMed Central

Bhandari, Nita; Bahl, Rajiv; Taneja, Sunita; de Onis, Mercedes; Bhan, Maharaj K.

2002-01-01

OBJECTIVE: A cross-sectional survey was conducted in order to determine whether an affluent population in south Delhi had a growth performance similar to that in developed countries and to identify socioeconomic factors that militated against optimal growth in this group. METHODS: The weights and lengths of 395 children aged 12-23 months and the heights of 331 mothers and 153 grandmothers were measured and information was obtained on family socioeconomic status and child-feeding practices. Children born prematurely, i.e. before 37 weeks of gestation, and those with illness adversely affecting growth, were excluded from the analysis, as with the NCHS/WHO reference population. RESULTS: In 341 children included in the analysis, the mean Z-scores for weight-for-age, length-for-age and weight-for-length were -0.45, -0.28 and -0.32 respectively. About 6% of the children were underweight (weight-for-age Z-score < or =-2), 3% were stunted (length-for-age Z-score < or =-2), and 4% were wasted (weight-for-length Z-score < or =-2). The factors that were significantly associated with higher length-for-age were one or both parents having 17 years or more of education (mean length-for-age Z-score -0.17) and non-vegetarian diet (mean length-for-age Z-score - 0.18). No socioeconomic factors were associated with mean weight-for-length. CONCLUSION: The children in this affluent population were close to the NCHS/WHO reference population with regard to anthropometric indicators. The subpopulation with higher parental education had even better growth. It is intended to include this subpopulation in the WHO Multicentre Growth Reference Study. PMID:11984604

Nutrition and growth: assessing the impact of regional nutritional intake on childhood development and metacarpal parameters.

PubMed

Moro, Christian; Covino, Jessica

2018-03-01

Measuring skeletal development throughout juvenile growth can provide a greater understanding into the health, hormonal function and genetics of children. The metacarpals have been of interest for their potential to provide insights into healthy juvenile skeletal development. This study investigated the growth patterns of developing females from isolated communities who had varied diets. Anthropometrical measurements and hand-wrist X-rays were taken of 353 juvenile females from three populations: Pari Coastal Village and Bundi Highlands Village, Papua New Guinea (PNG); and Brisbane, Australia between 1968 to 1983. Radiographs were digitized, and the length and width of the second and third metacarpals compared to each subject's height and weight. As subject heights increased, metacarpal length and width increased. However, stature and second metacarpal length indicated the strongest correlation ( P <0.01), compared to third metacarpal length ( P <0.01) or width. From 11 to 13 years of age, Brisbane subjects were significantly heavier and taller in comparison to subjects from PNG, and coastal females were heavier and taller than the highland females. A prominent difference between the two PNG populations was the regional intake of protein in their diets. The second metacarpal presents particularly accurate measurements when determining the height or development of a child. Nutritional intake appears to have a major influence normal childhood growth, with a potential for protein deficiency to strongly inhibit growth. Any delayed growth is particularly evident in the child's stature, as well as in the development of the metacarpal long bones of the hand.

Canopy gaps affect long-term patterns of tree growth and mortality in mature and old-growth forests in the Pacific Northwest

Treesearch

Andrew N. Gray; Thomas A. Spies; Robert J. Pabst

2012-01-01

Canopy gaps created by tree mortality can affect the speed and trajectory of vegetation growth. Species’ population dynamics, and spatial heterogeneity in mature forests. Most studies focus on plant development within gaps, yet gaps also affect the mortality and growth of surrounding trees, which influence shading and root encroachment into gaps and determine whether,...

Effects of water temperature on breeding phenology, growth, and metamorphosis of foothill yellow-legged frogs (Rana boylii): a case study of the regulated mainstem and unregulated tributaries of California's Trinity River

Treesearch

Clara Wheeler; James Bettaso; Donald Ashton; Hartwell Welsh

2014-01-01

Many riverine organisms are well adapted to seasonally dynamic environments, but extreme changes in flow and thermal regimes can threaten sustainability of their populations in regulated rivers. Altered thermal regimes may limit recruitment to populations by shifting the timing of breeding activities and affecting the growth and development of early life stages. Stream...

The effects of population growth on timber management and inventories in Virginia

Treesearch

David N. Wear; Rei Liu; J. Michael Foreman; Raymond M. Sheffield

1999-01-01

Expanding human populations may have important effects on the availability of timber from private lands in the South. To examine the effects of development on timber supply, the authors compared the density of populations and various site variables with expert opinions on the future location of commercial timberland for a study site in Virginia. Population density is a...

Disease introduction is associated with a phase transition in bighorn sheep demographics

PubMed Central

Manlove, Kezia; Cassirer, E. Frances; Cross, Paul Chafee; Plowright, Raina K.; Hudson, Peter J.

2016-01-01

Ecological theory suggests that pathogens are capable of regulating or limiting host population dynamics, and this relationship has been empirically established in several settings. However, although studies of childhood diseases were integral to the development of disease ecology, few studies show population limitation by a disease affecting juveniles. Here, we present empirical evidence that disease in lambs constrains population growth in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) based on 45 years of population-level and 18 years of individual-level monitoring across 12 populations. While populations generally increased (lambda =1.11) prior to disease introduction, most of these same populations experienced an abrupt change in trajectory at the time of disease invasion, usually followed by stagnant-to-declining growth rates (lambda = 0.98) over the next twenty years. Disease-induced juvenile mortality imposed strong constraints on population growth that were not observed prior to disease introduction, even as adult survival returned to pre-invasion levels. Simulations suggested that models including persistent disease-induced mortality in juveniles qualitatively matched observed population trajectories, whereas models that only incorporated all-age disease events did not. We use these results to argue that pathogen persistence may pose a lasting, but under-recognized, threat to host populations, particularly in cases where clinical disease manifests primarily in juveniles. PMID:27859120

Disease introduction is associated with a phase transition in bighorn sheep demographics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Manlove, Kezia; Cassirer, E. Frances; Cross, Paul C.; Plowright, Raina K.; Hudson, Peter J.

2016-01-01

Ecological theory suggests that pathogens are capable of regulating or limiting host population dynamics, and this relationship has been empirically established in several settings. However, although studies of childhood diseases were integral to the development of disease ecology, few studies show population limitation by a disease affecting juveniles. Here, we present empirical evidence that disease in lambs constrains population growth in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) based on 45 years of population-level and 18 years of individual-level monitoring across 12 populations. While populations generally increased (λ = 1.11) prior to disease introduction, most of these same populations experienced an abrupt change in trajectory at the time of disease invasion, usually followed by stagnant-to-declining growth rates (λ = 0.98) over the next 20 years. Disease-induced juvenile mortality imposed strong constraints on population growth that were not observed prior to disease introduction, even as adult survival returned to pre-invasion levels. Simulations suggested that models including persistent disease-induced mortality in juveniles qualitatively matched observed population trajectories, whereas models that only incorporated all-age disease events did not. We use these results to argue that pathogen persistence may pose a lasting, but under-recognized, threat to host populations, particularly in cases where clinical disease manifests primarily in juveniles.

Entrepreneurship Education in Delta State Tertiary Institution as a Means of Achieving National Growth and Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Osakwe, Regina N.

2015-01-01

This study examined entrepreneurship education in Delta Sate tertiary institutions as a means of national growth and development. Two research questions were asked to guide the study. The population comprised all the 1,898 academic staff in eight tertiary institutions in the state. A sample of 800 lecturers was drawn through the multi stage and…

A History of the Clark County Library District: Its Founding and Growth in Southern Nevada.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guy, Jewel

This paper describes the development from 1963 to 1986 of the Clark County (Nevada) Library District, which includes the rapidly growing urban area of Las Vegas. It notes that, besides responding successfully to a population growth of 330% over two decades, the system was also able to fulfill its original goal of developing local libraries that…

Life-history theory and climate change: resolving population and parental investment paradoxes.

PubMed

Caudell, Mark; Quinlan, Robert

2016-11-01

Population growth in the next half-century is on pace to raise global carbon emissions by half. Carbon emissions are associated with fertility as a by-product of somatic and parental investment, which is predicted to involve time orientation/preference as a mediating psychological mechanism. Here, we draw upon life-history theory (LHT) to investigate associations between future orientation and fertility, and their impacts on carbon emissions. We argue ' K -strategy' life history (LH) in high-income countries has resulted in parental investment behaviours involving future orientation that, paradoxically, promote unsustainable carbon emissions, thereby lowering the Earth's K or carrying capacity. Increasing the rate of approach towards this capacity are ' r -strategy' LHs in low-income countries that promote population growth. We explore interactions between future orientation and development that might slow the rate of approach towards global K . Examination of 67 000 individuals across 75 countries suggests that future orientation interacts with the relationship between environmental risk and fertility and with development related parental investment, particularly investment in higher education, to slow population growth and mitigate per capita carbon emissions. Results emphasize that LHT will be an important tool in understanding the demographic and consumption patterns that drive anthropogenic climate change.

Community development : local growth issues : federal opportunities and challenges

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-09-06

Faced with a projected 50-percent increase in the U.S. population in the next 50 years, communities across the nation must address the challenges of planning for and managing growth. State and local governments are balancing the need for sustainable ...

Middle East assessment.

PubMed

Mahran, M

1984-06-01

All governments of the Arab world are aware of the population issue, and there has been increasing interest in policies designed to bring about a lower rate of natural increase and older population age structure. Overpopulation is believed to be a major obstacle to economic development. The population activities of the Arab countries can be divided into 3 categories: national policy to reduce population growth; nongovernmental efforts to reduce population growth; and countries with pronatalist policies. The countries with a national policy to reduce population growth include Egypt, Tunisia, and Morocco. All suffer severe problems of high density, young age structure, and lack of balance between the population and the economy. In these countries an active national family planning program operates alongside many active nongovernmental family planning associations. Reduction of the growth rate is regarded as urgent, and emigration is encouraged. In egypt contraceptives are readily available through commerical outlets, and village level social and economic activities are promoted in conjunction with family planning services. Tunisia is the only country to offer voluntary sterilization and 1st trimester abortion on request. Morocco includes family planning in its health and welfare services and there is an active voluntary family planning association. Countries in the group who have made nongovernmental efforts to reduce population growth include Algeria, Bahrain, Iarq, Jordan, Lebanon, Sudan, Syria, and Democratic Yemen. all have major population problems and generally support reduced growth rated but as yet have no national family planning. In this group the highest rate of population increase is in Syria, 3.8% a year; the highest total fertility rate is in Bahrain with almost 8 children per women. Saudi Arabia, Kewait, Qwatar, Libya, and Oman have pronatalist policies. Methods of contraception are available in the private sector. The outstanding feature of these oil rich countries is their high per capita gross national product. A 1981 estimate showed Qatar's at US$27,790, to be the highest in the world. Generally, all the governments of the Arab world have become aware of population issues and of the population pressures within their own borders.

Analysis of Urban Growth in Edwardsville Illinois Using Remote Sensing and Population Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Onuoha, Hilda U.

Rapid urbanization is one of the many critical, global issues. This very significant social and economic phenomenon has brought about much debate in the past twenty years and has become a very important policy issue. Understanding its dynamics and patterns is important to develop appropriate policies and make more informed planning decisions. Many dimensions to the urban land growth have been identified in related literature including drivers, relationship with other factors like population, impacts, and methods of measurement. In this study, urban growth in the Edwardsville area (composed of Edwardsville and Glen Carbon, Illinois) is analyzed spatio-temporally using remote sensing and population change from 1990 to 2015. The objectives of this study are (a) identifying the major land use changes in the Edwardsville area from 1990 to 2015, (b) analyzing the rate of urban growth and its relationship to population change in the area from 1990 to 2015, (c) identifying the general pattern and direction of urban growth in the study area. Using multi-temporal satellite images to classify and derive changes in land cover classes during the study period, results showed that the land cover classes with major changes are the urban/built-up land and agricultural/grassland, with a steady increase in the former and steady decrease in the later. Results also show the highest rate of increase in urban land was between 2000 and 2010. In comparison to population, the both show increase over the study years but urban land shows a higher rate of increase indicating dispersion. To analyze urban growth pattern in the area, the study area was divided into three zones: NE, SE, and W. The SE zone showed the highest amount of the growth and from the results, the infill type of growth was inferred.

Determinants of infant growth: Evidence from Hong Kong's "Children of 1997" birth cohort.

PubMed

Hui, L L; Leung, Gabriel M; Cowling, Benjamin J; Lam, T H; Schooling, C Mary

2010-11-01

A high rate of infant growth may be associated with adult cardiovascular disease. We investigated factors associated with infant weight growth in a large sample from the recently transitioned population of Hong Kong. We used a nonlinear shape invariant model with random effects among 5949 term, singletons (77% follow-up) from a population-representative Hong Kong Chinese birth cohort "Children of 1997" to investigate factors associated with weight growth in the first year of life. Overall birth weight was lower but infant growth was more rapid than the 2006 WHO standards. Shorter gestation and lower birth order were associated with lower birth weight and faster infant growth. Female sex, maternal smoking in pregnancy, and a mother born in Hong Kong were associated with lower birth weight, but not with faster growth. Higher maternal education was associated with faster infant growth, grades 10-11 (1.03, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.03-1.05), greater than or equal to grade12 (1.07, CI = 1.04-1.09) compared with less than or equal to grade 9. Infant growth may respond more rapidly to socio-economic development than birth weight. Whether mother's education is associated with rapid infant growth via current conditions or her own "constitution" is unclear, nevertheless we believe this study illustrates the importance of contextually specific research for understanding the determinants of population health. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

75 FR 52547 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; Draft Ocelot (Leopardus pardalis

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-08-26

... populations of the ocelot in the borderlands of the United States and Mexico; Reduction of effects of human population growth and development to ocelot survival and mortality; Maintenance or improvement of genetic... are necessary for ocelot dispersal. In south Texas, 2 remaining ocelot populations of less than 25...

Incoming Population: Where Will the People Live? Coping with Growth.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Siegler, Theodore R.

The guide describes an assessment procedure that can be used by sparsely populated communities located near a potential development to help predict where the incoming population will choose to live and shop. First, a numerical model, the "gravity model," is presented which utilizes community size and the distance from the community to…

STUDENT-TEACHER POPULATION GROWTH MODEL--DYNAMOD II.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

ZABROWSKI, EDWARD K.; AND OTHERS

DYNAMOD II IS A COMPUTERIZED MARKOVIAN-TYPE FLOW MODEL DEVELOPED TO PROVIDE ESTIMATES OF THE EDUCATIONAL POPULATION OF STUDENTS AND TEACHERS OVER SELECTED INTERVALS OF TIME. THE POPULATION IS CROSS-CLASSIFIED INTO 108 GROUPS BY SEX, RACE, AGE, AND EDUCATIONAL CATEGORY. THIS NOTE DESCRIBES THE METHODOLOGY USED IN DYNAMOD II, COMPARES DYNAMOD II…

Population. Global Issues Education Packet.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Holm, Amy E.

One of the most critical issues that faces humanity is the world population boom. The high rate of population growth can directly affect sensitive issues such as the state of the environment, economic development, health, resource uses, and consumption. Though we have achieved the capability to override many of nature's limitations, we live in a…

Cultural Factors and Population in Developing Countries. Occasional Monograph Series, No. Six. ICP Work Agreement Reports.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smithsonian Institution, Washington, DC.

Five studies focus on the cultural components of population issues in Thailand, Jamaica, Korea, Kenya, and Indonesia. The reports explore the influence of cultural factors on contraceptive practice, family planning, abortion, and education. Recommendations are made for policymakers in areas that impinge on population growth. "Birth Control…

Diversity as valued and troubled: social identities and demographic categories in understandings of rapid urban growth in Vanuatu.

PubMed

Widmer, Alexandra

2013-01-01

This paper deals with the simultaneous mainstreaming and diversification of ni-Vanuatu social categories associated with the ways in which population growth is understood as a possible crisis in both demographic knowledge and everyday ni-Vanuatu knowledge. The author is interested in understanding the downplaying but primarily the amplification of difference with respect to place, generation and gender identities. The relationship between reproduction, social reproduction and the multiple meanings of modernity is at issue. In the expert knowledge of demography that proffers advice for the ni-Vanuatu state, it is the lack of modern development - in the form of adequate biomedical birth control, western education, and the equality of women - that is the implicit cause of population growth. Yet, many ni-Vanuatu see population growth as tied to the troubles that arise from the dilution of traditional social forms: there is too much modernity. In both demographic and ni-Vanuatu everyday narrations of the potential population crisis, diversification and mainstreaming take place and vulnerabilities are produced.

Fibroblast growth factor signaling is required for early somatic gonad development in zebrafish.

PubMed

Leerberg, Dena M; Sano, Kaori; Draper, Bruce W

2017-09-01

The vertebrate ovary and testis develop from a sexually indifferent gonad. During early development of the organism, primordial germ cells (the gamete lineage) and somatic gonad cells coalesce and begin to undergo growth and morphogenesis to form this bipotential gonad. Although this aspect of development is requisite for a fertile adult, little is known about the genetic regulation of early gonadogenesis in any vertebrate. Here, we provide evidence that fibroblast growth factor (Fgf) signaling is required for the early growth phase of a vertebrate bipotential gonad. Based on mutational analysis in zebrafish, we show that the Fgf ligand 24 (Fgf24) is required for proliferation, differentiation, and morphogenesis of the early somatic gonad, and as a result, most fgf24 mutants are sterile as adults. Additionally, we describe the ultrastructural elements of the early zebrafish gonad and show that distinct somatic cell populations can be identified soon after the gonad forms. Specifically, we show that fgf24 is expressed in an epithelial population of early somatic gonad cells that surrounds an inner population of mesenchymal somatic gonad cells that are in direct contact with the germ cells, and that fgf24 is required for stratification of the somatic tissue. Furthermore, based on gene expression analysis, we find that differentiation of the inner mesenchymal somatic gonad cells into functional cell types in the larval and early juvenile-stage gonad is dependent on Fgf24 signaling. Finally, we argue that the role of Fgf24 in zebrafish is functionally analogous to the role of tetrapod FGF9 in early gonad development.

Nineteenth Century Harbors: Accounting for Coastal Urban Development in Hydrologic Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlichting, K. M.; Ruffing, C. M.; McCormack, S. M.; Urbanova, T.; Powell, L. J.; Hermans, C. M.

2009-12-01

Harbors complicate the analytical framework of quantifying nineteenth-century hydrologic change in the northeastern United States. The hydrology of the region was fundamentally altered by the growth of water engineering such as canals as well as by land cover changes as deforestation in the region peaked and urban centers grew. Urban coastal growth epitomized nineteenth-century development as northeastern colonial ports evolved into manufacturing and industrial centers. Coastal urban industrial development concentrated tanneries, machineries, and paper processing companies along cities’ trading rivers. Additionally, the populations of cities such as Boston, New Haven, New York, Newark, and Baltimore reached unprecedented numbers, forcing urban municipalities to confront sewerage and drinking water infrastructure in the face of shortages and waterborne disease. We discuss how the concentration of industry and population at river mouths complicates the process of quantifying the effects of municipal drinking water and sewage infrastructure on regional hydrology and how the growth of nineteenth-century urban centers shaped regional hydrologic hinterlands. Additionally, harbors oblige a reconsideration of hydrologic boundaries by forcing hydrologists and environmental historians to account for fisheries and harbor engineering alongside population and industry as factors in changes to water quality and quantity in and human response to urban nineteenth-century hydrologic change.

Human Population: Fundamentals of Growth and Change.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stauffer, Cheryl Lynn, Ed.

This booklet focuses on eight elements of population dynamics: "Population Growth and Distribution"; "Natural Increase and Future Growth"; "Effect of Migration on Population Growth"; "Three Patterns of Population Change"; "Patterns of World Urbanization"; "The Status of Women";…

[Trends and characteristics of urbanization in the Third World, the day before yesterday to the day after tomorrow (1900-2025)].

PubMed

Bairoch, P

1983-01-01

This article reviews the history of Third World urbanization, examines the evolution of the urban population from 1970-80 based on the 1st results of the 1980 round of censuses, and examines the prospects for urbanization through the end of the century and the year 2025. From 1910 to World War II the urban population in all Third World countries grew more rapidly than the total population. Both rates of growth were moderate compared to subsequent rates. Total Third World population grew by about .9%/year while the urban population grew at 2.2%/year. From 1950-80 total population grew at 2.2% and the urban population by 4.6%. The urban growth took place in the absence of economic developments capable of explaining or justifying it. Urban growth accounted in large part for the extraordinary increase in cereal importation to the Third World. In 1980 it was estimated that 26.5% of the population if Africa, 63.1% in Latin America, and 25.4% in Asian countries excluding China were urban. A characteristic of third World urbanization is the strong concentration of population in large cities; 43% of the urban population currently lives in cities with population of over 500,000. In Third World market countries, total population growth from 1970-80 is provisionally estimated at 2.5-2.6%/year, while according to UN estimates urban population growth amounted to 4.2%/year and other estimates place population growth amounted to 4.2%/year and other estimates place it at 4.4%/year. The growth of the urban population in China from 1970-80 was estimated at 3.3%/year by the UN. During the 75 years from 1950-2025, the Third World urban population is expected to multiply by a factor of 16, from less than 200 million to over 3 billion. The urban population in 2025 projected by the UN amounts to 837 million in Africa, 724 million in Latin America, and 1.6 billion in Asian market countries, but there is some suggestion that the projection errs on the low side. Increases in food production on the order of 1.9%/year will be required through 2025 to feed the new urban population at the current level. Around the year 2000, cities of 1 million or more will contain about 46% of the urban population and 21% of the total population. The largest Third World cities will continue to grow despite their poor living conditions and lack of economic justification, and the low incomes of the inhabitants will increase the difficulty of improving living standards. Predictions as far ahead as 2025 are hazardous, but it is likely that the rate of growth of the largest cities will have abated somewhat.

Microgeographic differentiation in thermal performance curves between rural and urban populations of an aquatic insect.

PubMed

Tüzün, Nedim; Op de Beeck, Lin; Brans, Kristien I; Janssens, Lizanne; Stoks, Robby

2017-12-01

The rapidly increasing rate of urbanization has a major impact on the ecology and evolution of species. While increased temperatures are a key aspect of urbanization ("urban heat islands"), we have very limited knowledge whether this generates differentiation in thermal responses between rural and urban populations. In a common garden experiment, we compared the thermal performance curves (TPCs) for growth rate and mortality in larvae of the damselfly Coenagrion puella from three urban and three rural populations. TPCs for growth rate shifted vertically, consistent with the faster-slower theoretical model whereby the cold-adapted rural larvae grew faster than the warm-adapted urban larvae across temperatures. In line with costs of rapid growth, rural larvae showed lower survival than urban larvae across temperatures. The relatively lower temperatures hence expected shorter growing seasons in rural populations compared to the populations in the urban heat islands likely impose stronger time constraints to reach a certain developmental stage before winter, thereby selecting for faster growth rates. In addition, higher predation rates at higher temperature may have contributed to the growth rate differences between urban and rural ponds. A faster-slower differentiation in TPCs may be a widespread pattern along the urbanization gradient. The observed microgeographic differentiation in TPCs supports the view that urbanization may drive life-history evolution. Moreover, because of the urban heat island effect, urban environments have the potential to aid in developing predictions on the impact of climate change on rural populations.

Causes of mortality in California sea otters during periods of population growth and decline

USGS Publications Warehouse

Estes, J.A.; Hatfield, B.B.; Ralls, K.; Ames, J.

2003-01-01

Elevated mortality appears to be the main reason for both sluggish growth and periods of decline in the threatened California sea otter population. We assessed causes of mortality from salvage records of 3,105 beach-cast carcasses recovered from 1968 through 1999, contrasting two periods of growth with two periods of decline. Overall, an estimated 40%-60% of the deaths were not recovered and 70% of the recovered carcasses died from unknown causes. Nonetheless, several common patterns were evident in the salvage records during the periods of population decline. These included greater percentages of (1) prime age animals (3-10 yr), (2) carcasses killed by great white shark attacks, (3) carcasses recovered in spring and summer, and (4) carcasses for which the cause of death was unknown. Neither sex composition nor the proportion of carcasses dying of infectious disease varied consistently between periods of population increase and decline. The population decline from 1976 to 1984 was likely due to incidental mortality in a set-net fishery, and the decline from 1995 to 1999 may be related to a developing live-fish fishery. Long-term trends unrelated to periods of growth and decline included a decrease in per capita pup production and mass/length ratios of adult carcasses over the 31-yr study. The generally high proportion of deaths from infectious disease suggests that this factor has contributed to the chronically sluggish growth rate of the California sea otter population.

Development of Growth Charts of Pakistani Children Aged 4-15 Years Using Quantile Regression: A Cross-sectional Study

PubMed Central

Khan, Nazeer; Siddiqui, Junaid S; Baig-Ansari, Naila

2018-01-01

Background Growth charts are essential tools used by pediatricians as well as public health researchers in assessing and monitoring the well-being of pediatric populations. Development of these growth charts, especially for children above five years of age, is challenging and requires current anthropometric data and advanced statistical analysis. These growth charts are generally presented as a series of smooth centile curves. A number of modeling approaches are available for generating growth charts and applying these on national datasets is important for generating country-specific reference growth charts. Objective To demonstrate that quantile regression (QR) as a viable statistical approach to construct growth reference charts and to assess the applicability of the World Health Organization (WHO) 2007 growth standards to a large Pakistani population of school-going children. Methodology This is a secondary data analysis using anthropometric data of 9,515 students from a Pakistani survey conducted between 2007 and 2014 in four cities of Pakistan. Growth reference charts were created using QR as well as the LMS (Box-Cox transformation (L), the median (M), and the generalized coefficient of variation (S)) method and then compared with WHO 2007 growth standards. Results Centile values estimated by the LMS method and QR procedure had few differences. The centile values attained from QR procedure of BMI-for-age, weight-for-age, and height-for-age of Pakistani children were lower than the standard WHO 2007 centile. Conclusion QR should be considered as an alternative method to develop growth charts for its simplicity and lack of necessity to transform data. WHO 2007 standards are not suitable for Pakistani children. PMID:29632748

Development of Growth Charts of Pakistani Children Aged 4-15 Years Using Quantile Regression: A Cross-sectional Study.

PubMed

Iftikhar, Sundus; Khan, Nazeer; Siddiqui, Junaid S; Baig-Ansari, Naila

2018-02-02

Background Growth charts are essential tools used by pediatricians as well as public health researchers in assessing and monitoring the well-being of pediatric populations. Development of these growth charts, especially for children above five years of age, is challenging and requires current anthropometric data and advanced statistical analysis. These growth charts are generally presented as a series of smooth centile curves. A number of modeling approaches are available for generating growth charts and applying these on national datasets is important for generating country-specific reference growth charts. Objective To demonstrate that quantile regression (QR) as a viable statistical approach to construct growth reference charts and to assess the applicability of the World Health Organization (WHO) 2007 growth standards to a large Pakistani population of school-going children. Methodology This is a secondary data analysis using anthropometric data of 9,515 students from a Pakistani survey conducted between 2007 and 2014 in four cities of Pakistan. Growth reference charts were created using QR as well as the LMS (Box-Cox transformation (L), the median (M), and the generalized coefficient of variation (S)) method and then compared with WHO 2007 growth standards. Results Centile values estimated by the LMS method and QR procedure had few differences. The centile values attained from QR procedure of BMI-for-age, weight-for-age, and height-for-age of Pakistani children were lower than the standard WHO 2007 centile. Conclusion QR should be considered as an alternative method to develop growth charts for its simplicity and lack of necessity to transform data. WHO 2007 standards are not suitable for Pakistani children.

Energy Consumption Trends in Energy Scarce and Rich Countries: Comparative Study for Pakistan and Saudi Arabia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gazder, Uneb

2017-11-01

Energy crisis is raising serious concerns throughout the world. There has been constant rise in energy consumption corresponding to the increase in global population. This sector affects the other pillars of national economy including industries and transportation. Because of these reasons, the traditional fossil-based energy sources are depleting rapidly, resulting in high and unstable energy prices. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, although different from each other in terms of their economic stability and political systems, still rely heavily on the traditional fossil fuels. This paper presents the comparison of these two countries in terms of their energy consumption and factors affecting it. These factors include, but not limited to, economic development, and growth in population and other sectors such as; industries, transportation, etc. The comparison is also made with the regional and global energy consumption trends and these countries. Moreover, regression models were built to predict energy consumption till 2040 and compare the growth in this sector and share in global energy demand. Energy consumption in oil-rich countries (Saudi Arabia) has been driven through its economic development, while for energy insecure country (Pakistan) it is mainly because of population growth. It was also found that in the next two decades the share of Pakistan in the global energy demand will increase. This concludes that population growth will have more impact on energy consumption than economic growth. It could mean that the shift in energy sector would shift towards sustenance instead of using energy for commercial or industrial usage. Conference Track: Policy and Finance and Strategies

Effects of constant and fluctuating temperature on the development of the oriental fruit moth, Grapholita molesta (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae).

PubMed

Chen, Z-Z; Xu, L-X; Li, L-L; Wu, H-B; Xu, Y-Y

2018-06-21

The oriental fruit moth, Grapholita molesta, is an important pest in many commercial orchards including apple, pear and peach orchards, and responsible for substantial economic losses every year. To help in attaining a comprehensive and thorough understanding of the ecological tolerances of G. molesta, we collected life history data of individuals reared on apples under different constant temperature regimes and compared the data with moths reared under a variable outdoor temperature environment. Because G. molesta individuals reared at a constant 25°C had the heaviest pupal weight, the highest survival rate from egg to adult, highest finite rate of increase, and greatest fecundity, 25°C was considered as the optimum developmental temperature. The G. molesta population reared at a constant 31°C had the shortest development time, lowest survival rate and fecundity, resulting in population parameters of r < 0, λ < 1, lead to negative population growth. The population parameters r and λ reared under fluctuating temperature were higher than that reared under constant temperatures, the mean generation time (T) was shorter than it was in all of the constant temperatures treatments. This would imply that the outdoor G. molesta population would have a higher population growth potential and faster growth rate than indoor populations raised at constant temperatures. G. molesta moths reared under fluctuating temperature also had a higher fertility than moths reared under constant temperatures (except at 25°C). Our findings indicated that the population raised under outdoor fluctuating temperature conditions had strong environment adaptiveness.

A systematic review and meta-analysis to revise the Fenton growth chart for preterm infants

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The aim of this study was to revise the 2003 Fenton Preterm Growth Chart, specifically to: a) harmonize the preterm growth chart with the new World Health Organization (WHO) Growth Standard, b) smooth the data between the preterm and WHO estimates, informed by the Preterm Multicentre Growth (PreM Growth) study while maintaining data integrity from 22 to 36 and at 50 weeks, and to c) re-scale the chart x-axis to actual age (rather than completed weeks) to support growth monitoring. Methods Systematic review, meta-analysis, and growth chart development. We systematically searched published and unpublished literature to find population-based preterm size at birth measurement (weight, length, and/or head circumference) references, from developed countries with: Corrected gestational ages through infant assessment and/or statistical correction; Data percentiles as low as 24 weeks gestational age or lower; Sample with greater than 500 infants less than 30 weeks. Growth curves for males and females were produced using cubic splines to 50 weeks post menstrual age. LMS parameters (skew, median, and standard deviation) were calculated. Results Six large population-based surveys of size at preterm birth representing 3,986,456 births (34,639 births < 30 weeks) from countries Germany, United States, Italy, Australia, Scotland, and Canada were combined in meta-analyses. Smooth growth chart curves were developed, while ensuring close agreement with the data between 24 and 36 weeks and at 50 weeks. Conclusions The revised sex-specific actual-age growth charts are based on the recommended growth goal for preterm infants, the fetus, followed by the term infant. These preterm growth charts, with the disjunction between these datasets smoothing informed by the international PreM Growth study, may support an improved transition of preterm infant growth monitoring to the WHO growth charts. PMID:23601190

Catch-Up Growth and Neurobehavioral Development among Full-Term, Small-for-Gestational-Age Children: A Nationwide Japanese Population-Based Study.

PubMed

Takeuchi, Akihito; Yorifuji, Takashi; Nakamura, Kazue; Tamai, Kei; Mori, Shigehiro; Nakamura, Makoto; Kageyama, Misao; Kubo, Toshihide; Ogino, Tatsuya; Kobayashi, Katsuhiro; Doi, Hiroyuki

2018-01-01

To examine the relationship between catch-up growth of full-term, small for gestational age (SGA) children and their neurobehavioral development. Data were obtained from a population-based nationwide Japanese longitudinal survey that started in 2001. Study participants were full-term children with information on height at 2 years of age (n = 32 533). Catch-up growth for SGA infants was defined as achieving a height at 2 years of age of more than -2.0 standard deviations for chronological age. Logistic regression analyses were used to estimate ORs and 95% CIs for the associations of SGA and catch-up growth status with neurobehavioral development at 2.5 and 8 years of age, adjusting for potential infant- and parent-related confounding factors. Fifteen percent of term SGA infants failed to catch up in height. At 2.5 years of age, SGA children without catch-up growth were more likely to be unable to climb stairs (OR, 10.42; 95% CI, 5.55-19.56) and unable to compose a 2-word sentence (OR, 3.58; 95% CI, 1.81-7.08) compared with children with normal growth at birth. Furthermore, SGA children without catch-up growth were at increased risk for aggressive behaviors (OR, 3.85; 95% CI, 1.19-12.47) at 8 years of age. Continuous follow-up for full-term SGA infants with failure of catch-up growth or poor postnatal growth may be beneficial for early detection and intervention for behavioral problems. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Detection of a new QTL/gene for growth habit in chickpea CaLG1 using wide and narrow crosses

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A recombinant inbred line population (RIP-9) derived from an interspecific cross (ILC72 × Cr5-10) was evaluated for growth habit during two years (2003 and 2004). This RIP was used to develop a pair of near isogenic lines (NILs) for erect vs prostrate growth habit in chickpea. Molecular characteriza...

Growth and Change in Rural America. Management and Control of Growth Series.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fuguitt, Glenn V.; And Others

Growth in nonmetropolitan areas is expected to cause some of the most important land use debates of the 1980's. This volume is intended to provide professionals in the land use field with a better understanding of the extent and nature of population change in nonmetropolitan areas, the type of development associated with this change, and the…

Plasticity as Phenotype: G x E Interaction in a Freshwater Snail

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brunkow, P. E.; Calloway, S. A.

2005-05-01

Plasticity in morphological development allows species to accommodate environmental variation experienced during growth; however, genetic variation for phenotypic plasticity per se has been relatively under-studied. We utilized the well-documented plastic response of shell development to predator cues in a freshwater snail to quantify genetic variation for plasticity in growth rate and shell shape. Field-caught pairs of snails reproduced in the laboratory to create families of full siblings, which were then divided and allowed to grow in control and predator cue treatments. Predator (crayfish) cues had significant effects on both size-corrected growth rate and shell shape; family identity also significantly affected both final shell shape and growth rate. The interaction between predator treatment and family identity significantly affected snail growth rate but not final shell shape, suggesting genetic variation in the plastic response to predator cues for a physiological variable (growth rate) but not for a variable known to mechanically reduce the risk of predation (shell shape), at least in this population of snails. The possibility that risk of multiple modes of predation (i.e., both fish and crayfish) in some populations might maintain genetic variation in morphological plasticity is discussed.

Projection of Chinese motor vehicle growth, oil demand, and CO2 emissions through 2050

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-01-01

During this study a methodology was developed to project growth trends of the motor vehicle population and associated oil demand and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in China through 2050. In particular, the numbers of highway vehicles, motorcycles, an...

EXAMINING REGIONAL LAND USE CHANGE: THE COMMUNITY GROWTH MODEL (CGM)

EPA Science Inventory

The U. S. Environmental Protection Agency's Regional Vulnerability Assessment
Program (ReV A) is designed to develop and demonstrate approaches to identify the ecosystems at the greatest risk from regional population growth and economic activity.
As part of this program, ...

Multivariate Analysis of Income Inequality: Data from 32 Nations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stack, Steven

To analyze income inequality in 32 nations, the research tested hypotheses based upon eight socioeconomic variables. The first seven variables, often tested in income research, were: political participation, industrial development, population growth, educational level, inflation rate, economic growth, and technological complexity. The eighth…

The Impact of Accelerating Faster than Exponential Population Growth on Genetic Variation

PubMed Central

Reppell, Mark; Boehnke, Michael; Zöllner, Sebastian

2014-01-01

Current human sequencing projects observe an abundance of extremely rare genetic variation, suggesting recent acceleration of population growth. To better understand the impact of such accelerating growth on the quantity and nature of genetic variation, we present a new class of models capable of incorporating faster than exponential growth in a coalescent framework. Our work shows that such accelerated growth affects only the population size in the recent past and thus large samples are required to detect the models’ effects on patterns of variation. When we compare models with fixed initial growth rate, models with accelerating growth achieve very large current population sizes and large samples from these populations contain more variation than samples from populations with constant growth. This increase is driven almost entirely by an increase in singleton variation. Moreover, linkage disequilibrium decays faster in populations with accelerating growth. When we instead condition on current population size, models with accelerating growth result in less overall variation and slower linkage disequilibrium decay compared to models with exponential growth. We also find that pairwise linkage disequilibrium of very rare variants contains information about growth rates in the recent past. Finally, we demonstrate that models of accelerating growth may substantially change estimates of present-day effective population sizes and growth times. PMID:24381333

The impact of accelerating faster than exponential population growth on genetic variation.

PubMed

Reppell, Mark; Boehnke, Michael; Zöllner, Sebastian

2014-03-01

Current human sequencing projects observe an abundance of extremely rare genetic variation, suggesting recent acceleration of population growth. To better understand the impact of such accelerating growth on the quantity and nature of genetic variation, we present a new class of models capable of incorporating faster than exponential growth in a coalescent framework. Our work shows that such accelerated growth affects only the population size in the recent past and thus large samples are required to detect the models' effects on patterns of variation. When we compare models with fixed initial growth rate, models with accelerating growth achieve very large current population sizes and large samples from these populations contain more variation than samples from populations with constant growth. This increase is driven almost entirely by an increase in singleton variation. Moreover, linkage disequilibrium decays faster in populations with accelerating growth. When we instead condition on current population size, models with accelerating growth result in less overall variation and slower linkage disequilibrium decay compared to models with exponential growth. We also find that pairwise linkage disequilibrium of very rare variants contains information about growth rates in the recent past. Finally, we demonstrate that models of accelerating growth may substantially change estimates of present-day effective population sizes and growth times.

[Driving forces of carbon emission from energy consumption in China old industrial cities: a case study of Shenyang City, Northeast China].

PubMed

Ren, Wan-Xia; Geng, Yong; Xue, Bing

2012-10-01

To quantitatively analyze the effects of anthropogenic factors on regional environmental quality is a hot topic in the field of sustainable development research. Taking the typical old industrial city Shenyang in Northeast China as a case, and by using the IPCC method for calculating carbon emission from energy consumption, this paper estimated the carbon emission from energy consumption in the city in 1978-2009, and a time series analysis on the anthropogenic factors driving this carbon emission was made by the STIRPAT model based upon Kaya equation and ridge regression. In 1978-2009, the carbon emission in the city had a slow increase first, slow decrease then, and a rapid increase thereafter. The total carbon emission in 2009 was 4.6 times of that in 1978. Population growth was the main factor driving the growth of the emission, and there existed an equal-proportional variation between the population growth and the carbon emission growth. Urbanization was another main driving factor followed by population growth, and the per capita GDP was positively correlated with the carbon emission. Kuznets curve did not exist for the relationship between economic development and carbon emission in Shenyang. Energy source intensity reduction (representing technology improvement) was the main factor driving the reduction of the total carbon emission.

Optimizing the ‘demographic dividend’ in young developing countries: The role of contractual savings and insurance for financing education

PubMed Central

Ssewamala, Fred M.

2014-01-01

Many developing regions are facing a youth bulge, meaning that young people comprise the highest proportion of the population. These regions are at risk of losing what could be a tremendous opportunity for economic growth and development if they do not capitalize on this young and economically productive population - also referred to as the “demographic dividend,” defined as the increase in economic growth that tends to follow increases in the ratio of the working-age population - essentially the labor force - to dependents. Nations undergoing this population transition have the opportunity to capitalize on the demographic dividend if the right social, economic, and human capital policies are in place. In particular, sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and North Africa are at risk of losing the demographic dividend. These regions face high youth unemployment, low primary school completion, and low secondary school enrollment. This results in an undereducated and unskilled segment of the population. The prohibitive costs of education prevent young people from finishing school, thereby entering the labor market unprepared. This article presents a case for youth-focused financial inclusion programs as one of the antidotes to the masses of poor, undereducated, and low-skilled young people swelling the labor markets of poor developing countries. PMID:26273211

[A brief discussion on the effect of religion and feudal superstitions on China's population growth].

PubMed

Chen, G

1983-05-29

According to Marxism, population development is subject to the determination of production means under certain social and historical conditions, but it is also influenced by ideology, religions, and other factors. China is a country with numerous religions and traditional superstitions. Their impact on China's population growth cannot be underestimated. All religions and feudal superstitions have a role in the increase of the population, and they oppose birth control and abortion. Similarly, traditional feudal concepts of having more children for good fortune, ancestral worship, and filial piety also encouraged early marriage and having more children, and they have contributed to population growth. On the contrary, "individualism" practiced by Buddhist monks and nuns, the "sacred war" believed by Islamic people, and the offering of human sacrifices by many primitive religions, and the murdering of baby twins have served to reduce the population. Most of the religions and feudal superstitions are in favor of increasing the population. The popularity of Buddhism in the past was caused by an oversupply of the labor force. Many farmers became Buddhist monks as a way to earn a living. Since liberation, unhealthy religions and feudal superstitions have been prohibited but their everlasting infulence upon the people cannot be ignored. Uncontrolled population growth is harmful to the nation's economy and improvement of people's livelihood. In family planning work, attention should also be given to the prevention of interference from religions and feudal superstitions in people's ideology.

Suitability of oyster restoration sites along the Louisiana coast: Examining site and stock × site interaction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schwarting Miller, Lindsay; La Peyre, Jerome F.; LaPeyre, Megan K.

2017-01-01

Recognition of the global loss of subtidal oyster reefs has led to a rise in reef restoration efforts, including in the Gulf of Mexico. Created reef success depends entirely on selecting a location that supports long-term oyster growth and survival, including the recruitment and survival of on-reef oysters. Significant changes in estuarine salinity through management of freshwater inflows and through changed precipitation patterns may significantly impact the locations of optimal oyster restoration sites. These rapid shifts in conditions necessitate a need to better understand both impacts to on-reef oyster growth and population development, and variation in oyster stock performance. Oyster growth, mortality, condition, and disease prevalence were examined in three different stocks of oysters located in protected cages, as well as oyster recruitment and mortality on experimental reef units in three different locations representing a salinity gradient, along the Louisiana Gulf coast in 2011 and 2012. Over a 2-y period, the high-salinity site had highest oyster growth rate in protected cages but demonstrated the least likelihood for reef development based on on-reef oyster population failure, likely because of predation-related mortality (high recruitment and 100% mortality). In contrast, the midsalinity site with moderate oyster growth and on-reef recruitment and low mortality demonstrated a higher likelihood for reef development. The lowest salinity site exhibited extreme variability in all oyster responses between years because of extreme variation in environmental conditions during the study, indicating a low likelihood of long-term reef development. Whereas limited differences in stock performance between sites were found, the range of site environmental conditions tested was ultimately much lower than expected and may not have provided a wide enough range of conditions. In areas with limited, low recruitment, or rapidly changing environmental conditions, seeding with stocks selected for best growth and survival under expected future environmental conditions could better ensure reef development by using oyster populations best suited to the predicted conditions. With rapidly changing estuarine conditions from anthropogenic activities and climate change, siting of oyster reef restoration incorporating both oyster population dynamics and in situ biotic and abiotic interactions is critical in better directing site selection for reef restoration efforts.

[Socioenvironmental dilemmas of sustainable development].

PubMed

Torres, H D

1992-01-01

The literature on sustainable development published in advance of the 1992 United Nations Conference on the Environment and Development, in Rio de Janeiro, focuses on the social politics of the environment and the problems of the correlation of population and the environment. There is an intense preoccupation with the Brazilian environmental agenda and excessive treatment of topics related to the natural environment and the tropical forest of the Amazon. The fact that 75% of the Brazilian population lives in urban areas is ignored. Some works maintain that there is profound division between the conservators of the contemporary predatory and wasteful civilization and those progressive forces that point to the direction of a socially just and ecologically sustainable civilization. Issues that cannot be reduced to environmental questions have come into the forefront in recent years: race, gender, human rights, and pacifism. The question of population growth and pressure on the finite resources have also forcefully featured in debates. The sociology of environment submits that the contemporary civilization cannot be sustained in the medium or long term because of exponential population growth, spatial concentration of the population, depletion of natural resources, systems of production that utilized polluting technologies and low energy efficiency, and values that encourage unlimited material consumption.

Reproductive health, population growth, economic development and environmental change.

PubMed

Lincoln, D W

1993-01-01

World population will increase by 1000 million, or by 20%, within 10 years. Ninety-five per cent of this increase will occur in the South, in areas that are already economically, environmentally and politically fragile. Morbidity and mortality associated with reproduction will be greater in the current decade than in any period in human history. Annually, 40-60 million pregnancies will be terminated and 5-10 million children will die within one year of birth. AIDS-related infections, e.g. tuberculosis, will undermine health care in Africa (and elsewhere) and in places AIDS-related deaths will decimate the work-force. The growth in population and associated morbidity will inhibit global economic development and spawn new problems. The key issues are migration, the spread of disease, the supply of water and the degradation of land, and fiscal policies with respect to family planning, pharmaceuticals and Third-World debt. Full education, particularly of women, and more effective family planning in the South have the power to unlock the problem. Failure will see the developed countries, with their 800 million population, swamped by the health, economic and environmental problems of the South, with its projected population of 5400 million people for the year 2000.

Relevant microclimate for determining the development rate of malaria mosquitoes and possible implications of climate change.

PubMed

Paaijmans, Krijn P; Imbahale, Susan S; Thomas, Matthew B; Takken, Willem

2010-07-09

The relationship between mosquito development and temperature is one of the keys to understanding the current and future dynamics and distribution of vector-borne diseases such as malaria. Many process-based models use mean air temperature to estimate larval development times, and hence adult vector densities and/or malaria risk. Water temperatures in three different-sized water pools, as well as the adjacent air temperature in lowland and highland sites in western Kenya were monitored. Both air and water temperatures were fed into a widely-applied temperature-dependent development model for Anopheles gambiae immatures, and subsequently their impact on predicted vector abundance was assessed. Mean water temperature in typical mosquito breeding sites was 4-6 degrees C higher than the mean temperature of the adjacent air, resulting in larval development rates, and hence population growth rates, that are much higher than predicted based on air temperature. On the other hand, due to the non-linearities in the relationship between temperature and larval development rate, together with a marginal buffering in the increase in water temperature compared with air temperature, the relative increases in larval development rates predicted due to climate change are substantially less. Existing models will tend to underestimate mosquito population growth under current conditions, and may overestimate relative increases in population growth under future climate change. These results highlight the need for better integration of biological and environmental information at the scale relevant to mosquito biology.

Indonesia [Population education in countries of the region].

PubMed

Hardjosawarmono, S

1982-06-01

Indonesia currently faces 5 population problems: 1) large total population, estimated by 1980 census data at 147,383,075; 2) rapid population growth, increasing at the rate of 2.8 million annually by 1980; 3) a young population distribution, with 44% of the population under age 15; 4) uneven population distribution; and 5) rapid urbanization. The National Family Planning Coordinating Board (NFPCB), established in 1970 to plan and control family planning and population education, has set the goal of reducing the 1971 fertility rate by 50% by 1990. Population education is aimed at achieving voluntary acceptance of the small family idea. This is to be attained through awareness of the factors causing rapid population growth and the close interaction between such growth and development programs to enhance the standard of living. The population education program, which is administered by the Department of Education and Culture in cooperation with the NFPCB, underwent an orientation stage in 1970-72 and a pilot project stage in 1973-75. In the latter stage, teaching materials were developed and tested in 30 junior high schools. During the institutionalization stage, 1976-79, the program was systematically integrated into the educational system. Population topics are integrated with relevant subject areas from the 4th grade of elementary school to the 3rd grade of senior high school. A cell system is used to train teachers, who in turn train teachers in their respective schools. Population education has also been introduced into Indonesia's subsidiary schools under religious and Armed Forces jurisdiction. Current population education activities include the training of an additional 50,000 teachers and provision of teaching kits, slide projectors, and textbooks to all of the 160 nonformal learning centers. In addition, a number of government agencies, including the Ministries of Sports and Culture, Education, Health, Transmigration, Information, Religious Affairs, Home Affairs, and Defense, are involved in education programs aimed at those ages 10-45 who are outside of the educational system.

Long-term urban carbon dioxide observations reveal spatial and temporal dynamics related to urban characteristics and growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, Logan E.; Lin, John C.; Bowling, David R.; Pataki, Diane E.; Strong, Courtenay; Schauer, Andrew J.; Bares, Ryan; Bush, Susan E.; Stephens, Britton B.; Mendoza, Daniel; Mallia, Derek; Holland, Lacey; Gurney, Kevin R.; Ehleringer, James R.

2018-03-01

Cities are concentrated areas of CO2 emissions and have become the foci of policies for mitigation actions. However, atmospheric measurement networks suitable for evaluating urban emissions over time are scarce. Here we present a unique long-term (decadal) record of CO2 mole fractions from five sites across Utah’s metropolitan Salt Lake Valley. We examine “excess” CO2 above background conditions resulting from local emissions and meteorological conditions. We ascribe CO2 trends to changes in emissions, since we did not find long-term trends in atmospheric mixing proxies. Three contrasting CO2 trends emerged across urban types: negative trends at a residential-industrial site, positive trends at a site surrounded by rapid suburban growth, and relatively constant CO2 over time at multiple sites in the established, residential, and commercial urban core. Analysis of population within the atmospheric footprints of the different sites reveals approximately equal increases in population influencing the observed CO2, implying a nonlinear relationship with CO2 emissions: Population growth in rural areas that experienced suburban development was associated with increasing emissions while population growth in the developed urban core was associated with stable emissions. Four state-of-the-art global-scale emission inventories also have a nonlinear relationship with population density across the city; however, in contrast to our observations, they all have nearly constant emissions over time. Our results indicate that decadal scale changes in urban CO2 emissions are detectable through monitoring networks and constitute a valuable approach to evaluate emission inventories and studies of urban carbon cycles.

Growth changes in plaice, cod, haddock and saithe in the North Sea: a comparison of (post-)medieval and present-day growth rates based on otolith measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bolle, Loes J.; Rijnsdorp, Adriaan D.; van Neer, Wim; Millner, Richard S.; van Leeuwen, Piet I.; Ervynck, Anton; Ayers, Richard; Ongenae, Ellen

2004-05-01

Fishing effort has strongly increased in the North Sea since the mid-19th century, causing a substantial reduction in the population size of exploited fish stocks. As fisheries research has developed simultaneously with the industrialisation of the fisheries, our knowledge of population dynamics at low levels of exploitations is limited. Otoliths retrieved from archaeological excavations offer a unique opportunity to study growth rates in the past. This study compares historical and present-day growth rates for four commercially important demersal fish species. A total of 2532 modern otoliths (AD 1984-1999) and 1286 historical otoliths (AD 1200-1925) obtained from archaeological excavations in Belgium and Scotland were analysed. Comparison of the growth patterns between eras revealed a major increase in growth rate of haddock, whereas growth changes were not observed in saithe and only in the smaller size classes of plaice and cod. Comparison of our results with literature data indicates that the observed growth rate changes in plaice and cod occurred within the 20th century. Apparently the onset of industrialised fisheries has not greatly affected the growth of plaice, cod and saithe populations in the North Sea. This result contradicts the expectation of density-dependent limitation of growth during the era of pre-industrialised fishing, but is in agreement with the concentration hypothesis of Beverton (Neth. J. Sea Res. 34 (1995) 1) stating that species which concentrate spatially into nursery grounds during their early life-history may 'saturate' the carrying capacity of the juvenile habitat even though the adult part of the population is not limited by the adult habitat.

Development of growth equations from longitudinal studies of body weight and height in the full term and preterm neonate: From birth to four years postnatal age.

PubMed

Troutman, John A; Sullivan, Mary C; Carr, Gregory J; Fisher, Jeffrey

2018-03-14

Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models are developed from compound-independent information to describe important anatomical and physiological characteristics of an individual or population of interest. Modeling pediatric populations is challenging because of the rapid changes that occur during growth, particularly in the first few weeks and months after birth. Neonates who are born premature pose several unique challenges in PBPK model development. To provide appropriate descriptions for body weight (BW) and height (Ht) for age and appropriate incremental gains in PBPK models of the developing preterm and full term neonate, anthropometric measurements collected longitudinally from 1,063 preterm and 158 full term neonates were combined with 2,872 cross-sectional measurements obtained from the NHANES 2007-2010 survey. Age-specific polynomial growth equations for BW and Ht were created for male and female neonates with corresponding gestational birth ages of 25, 28, 31, 34, and 40 weeks. Model-predicted weights at birth were within 20% of published fetal/neonatal reference standards. In comparison to full term neonates, postnatal gains in BW and Ht were slower in preterm subgroups, particularly in those born at earlier gestational ages. Catch up growth for BW in neonates born at 25, 28, 31, and 34 weeks gestational age was complete by 13, 8, 6, and 2 months of life (males) and by 10, 6, 5, and 2 months of life (females), respectively. The polynomial growth equations reported in this paper represent extrauterine growth in full term and preterm neonates and differ from the intrauterine growth standards that were developed for the healthy unborn fetus. © 2018 The Authors. Birth Defects Research Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Genetic differentiation among populations of Pinus ponderosa from the upper Colorado River Basin

Treesearch

Gerald Rehfeldt

1990-01-01

Genetic variation among 62 populations of ponderosa pine was studied by comparing seedlings from all populations according to (1) growth and development of 4-yr-old seedlings in three disparate common gardens and (2) patterns of shoot elongation of 2-yr-old seedlings in a greenhouse. Genetic variation was detected among populations for 19 of the variables, most of...

Recent and prospective population trends in Malaysia.

PubMed

Jones, G W; Tan, P C

1985-09-01

Recent population trends in Malaysia are reviewed, with the focus on Peninsular Malaysia. Separate consideration is given to population growth between 1970 and 1980; mortality trends; period and cohort fertility trends; factors affecting fertility, including changes in age structure, nuptiality, and other socioeconomic and demographic changes; and the recent development of a pro-natalist policy involving a goal of a population of 70 million by 2050.

Driving factors of urban land growth in Guangzhou and its implications for sustainable development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Xuezhu; Li, Shaoying; Wang, Xuetong; Xue, Xiaolong

2018-04-01

Since 2000, China's urban land has expanded at a dramatic speed because of the country's rapid urbanization. The country has been experiencing unbalanced development between rural and urban areas, causing serious challenges such as agricultural security and land resources waste. Effectively evaluating the driving factors of urban land growth is essential for improving efficient land use management and sustainable urban development. This study established a principal component regression model based on eight indicators to identify their influences on urban land growth in Guangzhou. The results provided a grouping analysis of the driving factors, and found that economic growth, urban population, and transportation development are the driving forces of urban land growth of Guangzhou, while the tertiary industry has an opposite effect. The findings led to further suggestions and recommendations for urban sustainable development. Hence, local governments should design relevant policies for achieving the rational development of urban land use and strategic planning on urban sustainable development.

Population Growth Types in India, 1961-71

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chakravarti, A. K.

1976-01-01

An effective means of cartographic representation of India's population growth and its spatial characteristics is the focus of this paper. A population growth index and population growth types are discussed. (Author/ND)

Relationships between population and environment in rural areas of developing countries.

PubMed

Rudel, T I

1991-01-01

Studies that have assessed the impact of population change on the environment in rural areas of selected developing countries are reviewed. The implications are that both developed and developing countries might focus on single aspects of a much larger global problem. Rural areas were selected because the bulk of the world's population lives in rural areas. Population environment interactions are 1st discussed at the global level. Studies on changing import patterns of developing countries are usless in accounting for agricultural policy shifts or other factors that may be unrelated to population growth but may be related to food imports. When the magnitude of food production and population growth is examined, there is a balance established between the two. However, analysis of the spatial distribution of desertification and soil degradation shows greater local level effects. Population/environment relationships are examined in critical ecological zones: tropical deforestation, desertification, land degradation in resource poor zones, and responses to population pressures and resource degradation. The conclusions reached are that better statistics on degradation are needed and that the trends in the human ecology of rural populations have clear implications for government policies on the environment. Agricultural development has been uneven and inequitable such that many peasant populations have suffered a decline in standards of living, particularly in Africa. There has also been an accelerated increase in rates of land degradation in resource poor areas, which are densely populated. The population response has been migration shifts out of resource poor areas to ecologically marginal areas, which has resulted in extensive desertification and deforestation. Expansion of the areas under cultivation has not just increased agricultural production but agriculture and population have invaded ecologically marginal zones in deserts and rain forests. Measurement of the magnitude and geographic distribution of deforestation is enhanced with the use of remote sensing techniques, such as those used in the 1982 UN Food and Agriculture baseline study. Soil degradation is not so easily measured. The implications are that regional development funds need to directed away from critical zones or areas adjacent to critical zones. Research is needed to understand rural to rural migration.

Population and Human Development: A Course Curriculum Including Lesson Plans, Activities and Bibliography.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murphy, Elaine M.

This course outline suggests materials and learning activities on the interrelated causes and consequences of population growth and other population concerns. Designed to educate general college audiences, it is also intended for use as a preservice course for teachers. In addition, the course can be modified for high school students. The course…

International Assistance in the Population Field: Roads Taken, Paths Ahead. Occasional Paper Series, Number 7, Volume II.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zeidenstein, George

American attitudes toward foreign aid for population control have changed dramatically since the period following World War II, when birth control assistance was considered too controversial for government funding. With growing national and international concern about population growth and poverty in the developing nations and through the efforts…

Population Growth and Policies in Mega-Cities. Sao Paulo.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

United Nations New York, NY. Dept. of Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis.

This document is one in a series of studies that focus on the population policies and plans of a number of mega-cities in developing countries. The object of the series is to examine the formulation, implementation, and evaluation of the population policies of mega-cities from a broad perspective, emphasizing the reciprocal links between…

Overcrowding and Population Growth: The Nature and Relevance of Animal Behavior.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stettner, Laurence J.

This paper provides a descriptive overview of research on the consequences of overcrowding and the development of high population densities in animals, and speculates on the relevance of these studies for similar human phenomena. Three major foci are distinguished: (1) the effect of high population densities on animal behavior; (2) the nature of…

[Statistical surveys].

PubMed

1981-01-01

Data are included on territory and population in Czechoslovakia; population development, 1869-1980; number of women aged 15-49 and 15-29, 1970-1979; live births, 1970-1979; reproduction rates, 1970-1979; fertility of women by five-year age group, 1970-1979; fertility of women by age for Czechoslovakia, the Czech SSR, and the Slovak SSR; and natural growth of population, 1975-1980

Elucidating the Population Dynamics of Japanese Knotweed Using Integral Projection Models

PubMed Central

Dauer, Joseph T.; Jongejans, Eelke

2013-01-01

Plant demographic studies coupled with population modeling are crucial components of invasive plant management because they inform managers when in a plant’s life cycle it is most susceptible to control efforts. Providing land managers with appropriate data can be especially challenging when there is limited data on potentially important transitions that occur belowground. For 2 years, we monitored 4 clonal Japanese knotweed ( Polygonum cuspidatum ) infestations for emergence, survival, shoot height until leaf senescence, dry shoot biomass after senescence, and rhizome connections for 424 shoots. We developed an integral projection model using both final autumn shoot height and shoot biomass as predictors of survival between years, growth from year to year, and number of rhizomes produced by a shoot (fecundity). Numbers of new shoots within an infestation (population growth rate λ) were projected to increase 13-233% in a year, with the greatest increase at the most frequently disturbed site. Elasticity analysis revealed population growth at 3 of the 4 sites was primarily due to ramet survival between years and to year-to-year growth in shoot height and shoot biomass. Population growth at the fourth site, the most disturbed, was due to the large production of new rhizomes and associated shoots. In contrast to previous studies, our excavation revealed that most of the shoots were not interconnected, suggesting rhizome production may be limited by the size or age of the plants, resource availability, disturbance frequency, or other factors. Future integration of plant population models with more data on belowground growth structures will clarify the critical stages in Japanese knotweed life cycle and support land managers in their management decisions. PMID:24073249

Community development : local growth issues--federal opportunities and challenges : report to Congressional requesters

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-09-01

Faced with a projected 50-percent increase in the U.S. population in the next 50 years, communities across the nation must address the challenges of planning for and managing growth. State and local governments are balancing the need for sustainable ...

Ecological relationships between xerophilic fungi and house-dust mites (Acarida: Pyroglyphidae).

PubMed

Lustgraaf, B V D

1978-01-01

At. 75 and 80% relative humidity (RH), on a wheat germ flake medium, Aspergillus penicilloides grew abundantly and suppressed the population growth of Dermatophagoides pteronyssiunus. At 71% RH, A. penicilloides grew moderately and was only antagonistic to D. pteronyssinus when the fungus was previously incubated on the medium.On a human dander medium and on mattress dust, A. penicilloides grew moderately at 71% and 75% RH and stimulated the development of D. pteronyssinus populations. Also a moderate growth of Eurotium repens on human dander positively influenced D. pteronyssinus. Wallemia sebi and Penicillium brevicompactum grew slightly or did not grow at all at 75% RH. No effect was observed on D. pteronyssinus.It appears that xerophilic fungi may stimulate, and occasionally may reduce, the growth of house-dust mite populations in the natural environment.

The Philippine Parliamentarians Conference on Human Survival, Population and Development. Summary.

PubMed

1988-12-01

Proceedings of the 1st Philippine Parliamentarians' Conference on Human Survival, Population and Development (PARLCON '88) are summarized in this report. Conference participants included the House and Senate, government officials, representatives of nongovernmental organizations, international organizations, the diplomatic corps and the media. A message from the President was read, referring the "silent emergency" of malnutrition and infant mortality of over 100,000 yearly. The events taking place were a statement of objectives, a Senate Resolution welcoming the convening of the conference, an opening ceremony, a posthumous award to R. M. Sales, executive director of the UNFPA, and a final a plan of action. Much of the content of the above events was duplicated in the final plan, which was formulated in 17 points. Some of these key points were: recognition of the need for quality of life, the detrimental effect of rapid population growth on development, the right of spouses to plan family size within their ethical beliefs, and the need for political will to address development concerns. The conference recommended that parliament and local governments strive for a consensus on national policy regarding population; ensure that economic gains are not decimated by population growth, protect the environment, develop social and industrial infrastructure in outlying areas, pursue national self-reliance, promote the human right of choosing desired family size, endorse the small family norm, empower women by educational and income generating opportunities, gather national data on population, strengthen the Population Commission, support nongovernmental agencies that provide family planning services, and promote education on family planning.

Extending the durability of cultivar resistance by limiting epidemic growth rates.

PubMed

Carolan, Kevin; Helps, Joe; van den Berg, Femke; Bain, Ruairidh; Paveley, Neil; van den Bosch, Frank

2017-09-27

Cultivar resistance is an essential part of disease control programmes in many agricultural systems. The use of resistant cultivars applies a selection pressure on pathogen populations for the evolution of virulence, resulting in loss of disease control. Various techniques for the deployment of host resistance genes have been proposed to reduce the selection for virulence, but these are often difficult to apply in practice. We present a general technique to maintain the effectiveness of cultivar resistance. Derived from classical population genetics theory; any factor that reduces the population growth rates of both the virulent and avirulent strains will reduce selection. We model the specific example of fungicide application to reduce the growth rates of virulent and avirulent strains of a pathogen, demonstrating that appropriate use of fungicides reduces selection for virulence, prolonging cultivar resistance. This specific example of chemical control illustrates a general principle for the development of techniques to manage the evolution of virulence by slowing epidemic growth rates. © 2017 The Author(s).

Impacts of population growth, urbanisation and sanitation changes on global human Cryptosporidium emissions to surface water.

PubMed

Hofstra, Nynke; Vermeulen, Lucie C

2016-10-01

Cryptosporidium is a pathogenic protozoan parasite and is a leading cause of diarrhoea worldwide. The concentration of Cryptosporidium in the surface water is a determinant for probability of exposure and the risk of disease. Surface water concentrations are expected to change with population growth, urbanisation and changes in sanitation. The objective of this paper is to assess the importance of future changes in population, urbanisation and sanitation on global human emissions of Cryptosporidium to surface water. The GloWPa-Crypto H1 (the Global Waterborne Pathogen model for Human Cryptosporidium emissions version 1) model is presented and run for 2010 and with scenarios for 2050. The new scenarios are based on the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) developed for the climate community. The scenarios comprise assumptions on sanitation changes in line with the storylines and population and urbanisation changes from the SSPs. In SSP1 population growth is limited, urbanisation large and sanitation and waste water treatment strongly improve. SSP1* is the same as SSP1, but waste water treatment does not improve. SSP3 sees large population growth, moderate urbanisation and sanitation and waste water treatment fractions that are the same as in 2010. Total global Cryptosporidium emissions to surface water for 2010 are estimated to be 1.6×10 17 oocysts per year, with hotspots in the most urbanised parts of the world. In 2050 emissions are expected to decrease by 24% or increase by 52% and 70% for SSP1, SSP3 and SSP1* respectively. The emissions increase in all scenarios for countries in the Middle East and Africa (MAF) region, while emissions in large parts in Europe decrease in scenarios SSP1 and SSP3. Improving sanitation by connecting the population to sewers, should be combined with waste water treatment, otherwise (SSP1*) emissions in 2050 are expected to be much larger than in a situation with strong population growth and slow development of safe water and improved sanitation (SSP3). The results show that population increase, urbanisation and changes in sanitation should be considered when water quality and resulting health risks are estimated by water managers or public health specialists. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Evaluating spatial and temporal variability in growth and mortality for recreational fisheries with limited catch data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Li, Yan; Wagner, Tyler; Jiao, Yan; Lorantas, Robert M.; Murphy, Cheryl

2018-01-01

Understanding the spatial and temporal variability in life-history traits among populations is essential for the management of recreational fisheries. However, valuable freshwater recreational fish species often suffer from a lack of catch information. In this study, we demonstrated the use of an approach to estimate the spatial and temporal variability in growth and mortality in the absence of catch data and apply the method to riverine smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) populations in Pennsylvania, USA. Our approach included a growth analysis and a length-based analysis that estimates mortality. Using a hierarchical Bayesian approach, we examined spatial variability in growth and mortality by assuming parameters vary spatially but remain constant over time and temporal variability by assuming parameters vary spatially and temporally. The estimated growth and mortality of smallmouth bass showed substantial variability over time and across rivers. We explored the relationships of the estimated growth and mortality with spring water temperature and spring flow. Growth rate was likely to be positively correlated with these two factors, while young mortality was likely to be positively correlated with spring flow. The spatially and temporally varying growth and mortality suggest that smallmouth bass populations across rivers may respond differently to management plans and disturbance such as environmental contamination and land-use change. The analytical approach can be extended to other freshwater recreational species that also lack of catch data. The approach could also be useful in developing population assessments with erroneous catch data or be used as a model sensitivity scenario to verify traditional models even when catch data are available.

Simulating Population Growth.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Byington, Scott

1997-01-01

Presents a strategy to help students grasp the important implications of population growth. Involves an interactive demonstration that allows students to experience exponential and logistic population growth followed by a discussion of the implications of population-growth principles. (JRH)

Transition of population reproduction patterns in China.

PubMed

Zhou, X

1985-04-01

Rapid and drastic changes have taken place in the population reproduction pattern in China over the last 3 decades during which the traditional pattern of high birth rate and death rate gave way to the modern pattern of low birth rate and death rate. Man's capacity to reduce disease incidence and to lower mortality rates relies directly on the economic development of the society that makes the necessary conditions availiable to him. The drastic drop of the mortality rate in China since 1949 is not a result of the "propagation of Western medical knowledge and technology" alone; it is mainly an upshot of the changes in the social, political, and economic spheres that have taken place in the country. In the recent 10 years, China has brought down its birth rate and put population growth under plans, reflecting a deepening understanding of the objective laws in the realm of population development. This understanding includes the following aspects: 1) multiplication of human numbers is not the sole purpose of population growth, 2) the establishment of the socialist system has accelerated the mortality rate decline without being able to bring down the birth rate rapidly, and 3) population growth must be subjected to planning. With these points of understanding gradually deepened, China has made full use of its socialist institutional advantages to bring down its birth rate in a short time. The credit of the successful completion of fertility transition is due to China's advanced production relations and superior social system.

[New population curves in spanish extremely preterm neonates].

PubMed

García-Muñoz Rodrigo, F; García-Alix Pérez, A; Figueras Aloy, J; Saavedra Santana, P

2014-08-01

Most anthropometric reference data for extremely preterm infants used in Spain are outdated and based on non-Spanish populations, or are derived from small hospital-based samples that failed to include neonates of borderline viability. To develop gender-specific, population-based curves for birth weight, length, and head circumference in extremely preterm Caucasian infants, using a large contemporary sample size of Spanish singletons. Anthropometric data from neonates ≤ 28 weeks of gestational age were collected between January 2002 and December 2010 using the Spanish database SEN1500. Gestational age was estimated according to obstetric data (early pregnancy ultrasound). The data were analyzed with the SPSS.20 package, and centile tables were created for males and females using the Cole and Green LMS method. This study presents the first population-based growth curves for extremely preterm infants, including those of borderline viability, in Spain. A sexual dimorphism is evident for all of the studied parameters, starting at early gestation. These new gender-specific and population-based data could be useful for the improvement of growth assessments of extremely preterm infants in our country, for the development of epidemiological studies, for the evaluation of temporal trends, and for clinical or public health interventions seeking to optimize fetal growth. Copyright © 2013 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Population demographics of two local South Carolina mourning dove populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, D.P.; Otis, D.L.

1998-01-01

The mourning dove (Zenaida macroura) call-count index had a significant (P 2,300 doves and examined >6,000 individuals during harvest bag checks. An age-specific band recovery model with time- and area-specific recovery rates, and constant survival rates, was chosen for estimation via Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC), likelihood ratio, and goodness-of-fit criteria. After-hatching-year (AHY) annual survival rate was 0.359 (SE = 0.056), and hatching-year (HY) annual survival rate was 0.118 (SE = 0.042). Average estimated recruitment per adult female into the prehunting season population was 3.40 (SE = 1.25) and 2.32 (SE = 0.46) for the 2 study areas. Our movement data support earlier hypotheses of nonmigratory breeding and harvested populations in South Carolina. Low survival rates and estimated population growth rate in the study areas may be representative only of small-scale areas that are heavily managed for dove hunting. Source-sink theory was used to develop a model of region-wide populations that is composed of source areas with positive growth rates and sink areas of declining growth. We suggest management of mourning doves in the Southeast might benefit from improved understanding of local population dynamics, as opposed to regional-scale population demographics.

An energy-economy-environment model for simulating the impacts of socioeconomic development on energy and environment.

PubMed

Wang, Wenyi; Zeng, Weihua; Yao, Bo

2014-01-01

Many rapidly developing regions have begun to draw the attention of the world. Meanwhile, the energy and environmental issues associated with rapid economic growth have aroused widespread critical concern. Therefore, studying energy, economic, and environmental systems is of great importance. This study establishes a system dynamic model that covers multiple aspects of those systems, such as energy, economy, population, water pollution, air pollution, solid waste, and technology. The model designed here attempts to determine the impacts of socioeconomic development on the energy and environment of Tongzhou District in three scenarios: under current, planning, and sustainable conditions. The results reveal that energy shortages and water pollutions are very serious and are the key issues constraining future social and economic development. Solid waste emissions increase with population growth. The prediction results provide valuable insights into social advancement.

Life histories and conservation of long-lived reptiles, an illustration with the American crocodile (Crocodylus acutus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Briggs-Gonzalez, Venetia; Bonefant, Christophe; Basille, Mathieu; Cherkiss, Michael S.; Beauchamp, Jeff; Mazzotti, Frank J.

2017-01-01

Successful species conservation is dependent on adequate estimates of population dynamics, but age-specific demographics are generally lacking for many long-lived iteroparous species such as large reptiles. Accurate demographic information allows estimation of population growth rate, as well as projection of future population sizes and quantitative analyses of fitness trade-offs involved in the evolution of life-history strategies.Here, a long-term capture–recapture study was conducted from 1978 to 2014 on the American crocodile (Crocodylus acutus) in southern Florida. Over the study period, 7,427 hatchlings were marked and 380 individuals were recaptured for as many as 25 years. We estimated survival to be strongly age dependent with hatchlings having the lowest survival rates (16%) but increasing to nearly 90% at adulthood based on mark–recapture models. More than 5% of the female population were predicted to be reproductive by age 8 years; the age-specific proportion of reproductive females steadily increased until age 18 when more than 95% of females were predicted to be reproductive. Population growth rate, estimated from a Leslie–Lefkovitch stage-class model, showed a positive annual growth rate of 4% over the study period.Using a prospective sensitivity analysis, we revealed that the adult stage, as expected, was the most critical stage for population growth rate; however, the survival of younger crocodiles before they became reproductive also had a surprisingly high elasticity. We found that variation in age-specific fecundity has very limited impact on population growth rate in American crocodiles.We used a comparative approach to show that the original life-history strategy of American crocodiles is actually shared by other large, long-lived reptiles: while adult survival rates always have a large impact on population growth, this decreases with declining increasing growth rates, in favour of a higher elasticity of the juvenile stage.Crocodiles, as a long-lived and highly fecund species, deviate from the usual association of life histories of “slow” species. Current management practices are focused on nests and hatchling survival; however, protection efforts that extend to juvenile crocodiles would be most effective for conservation of the species, especially in an ever-developing landscape.

Disease introduction is associated with a phase transition in bighorn sheep demographics.

PubMed

Manlove, Kezia; Cassirer, E Frances; Cross, Paul C; Plowright, Raina K; Hudson, Peter J

2016-10-01

Ecological theory suggests that pathogens are capable of regulating or limiting host population dynamics, and this relationship has been empirically established in several settings. However, although studies of childhood diseases were integral to the development of disease ecology, few studies show population limitation by a disease affecting juveniles. Here, we present empirical evidence that disease in lambs constrains population growth in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) based on 45 years of population-level and 18 years of individual-level monitoring across 12 populations. While populations generally increased (λ = 1.11) prior to disease introduction, most of these same populations experienced an abrupt change in trajectory at the time of disease invasion, usually followed by stagnant-to-declining growth rates (λ = 0.98) over the next 20 years. Disease-induced juvenile mortality imposed strong constraints on population growth that were not observed prior to disease introduction, even as adult survival returned to pre-invasion levels. Simulations suggested that models including persistent disease-induced mortality in juveniles qualitatively matched observed population trajectories, whereas models that only incorporated all-age disease events did not. We use these results to argue that pathogen persistence may pose a lasting, but under-recognized, threat to host populations, particularly in cases where clinical disease manifests primarily in juveniles. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Estimating the effects of 17α-ethinylestradiol on stochastic population growth rate of fathead minnows: a population synthesis of empirically derived vital rates.

PubMed

Schwindt, Adam R; Winkelman, Dana L

2016-09-01

Urban freshwater streams in arid climates are wastewater effluent dominated ecosystems particularly impacted by bioactive chemicals including steroid estrogens that disrupt vertebrate reproduction. However, more understanding of the population and ecological consequences of exposure to wastewater effluent is needed. We used empirically derived vital rate estimates from a mesocosm study to develop a stochastic stage-structured population model and evaluated the effect of 17α-ethinylestradiol (EE2), the estrogen in human contraceptive pills, on fathead minnow Pimephales promelas stochastic population growth rate. Tested EE2 concentrations ranged from 3.2 to 10.9 ng L(-1) and produced stochastic population growth rates (λ S ) below 1 at the lowest concentration, indicating potential for population decline. Declines in λ S compared to controls were evident in treatments that were lethal to adult males despite statistically insignificant effects on egg production and juvenile recruitment. In fact, results indicated that λ S was most sensitive to the survival of juveniles and female egg production. More broadly, our results document that population model results may differ even when empirically derived estimates of vital rates are similar among experimental treatments, and demonstrate how population models integrate and project the effects of stressors throughout the life cycle. Thus, stochastic population models can more effectively evaluate the ecological consequences of experimentally derived vital rates.

Age-related variation in genetic control of height growth in Douglas-fir.

PubMed

Namkoong, G; Usanis, R A; Silen, R R

1972-01-01

The development of genetic variances in height growth of Douglas-fir over a 53-year period is analyzed and found to fall into three periods. In the juvenile period, variances in environmental error increase logarithmically, genetic variance within populations exists at moderate levels, and variance among populations is low but increasing. In the early reproductive period, the response to environmental sources of error variance is restricted, genetic variance within populations disappears, and populational differences strongly emerge but do not increase as expected. In the later period, environmental error again increases rapidly, but genetic variance within populations does not reappear and population differences are maintained at about the same level as established in the early reproductive period. The change between the juvenile and early reproductive periods is perhaps associated with the onset of ecological dominance and significant allocations of energy to reproduction.

Evolutionary demography of agricultural expansion in preindustrial northern Finland

PubMed Central

Helle, Samuli; Brommer, Jon E.; Pettay, Jenni E.; Lummaa, Virpi; Enbuske, Matti; Jokela, Jukka

2014-01-01

A shift from nomadic foraging to sedentary agriculture was a major turning point in human evolutionary history, increasing our population size and eventually leading to the development of modern societies. We however lack understanding of the changes in life histories that contributed to the increased population growth rate of agriculturalists, because comparable individual-based reproductive records of sympatric populations of agriculturalists and foragers are rarely found. Here, we compared key life-history traits and population growth rate using comprehensive data from the seventieth to nineteenth century Northern Finland: indigenous Sami were nomadic hunter-fishers and reindeer herders, whereas sympatric agricultural Finns relied predominantly on animal husbandry. We found that agriculture-based families had higher lifetime fecundity, faster birth spacing and lower maternal mortality. Furthermore, agricultural Finns had 6.2% higher annual population growth rate than traditional Sami, which was accounted by differences between the subsistence modes in age-specific fecundity but not in mortality. Our results provide, to our knowledge, the most detailed demonstration yet of the demographic changes and evolutionary benefits that resulted from agricultural revolution. PMID:25232134

Stochastic Assembly of Bacteria in Microwell Arrays Reveals the Importance of Confinement in Community Development

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hansen, Ryan H.; Timm, Andrea C.; Timm, Collin M.

The structure, function and evolving composition of microbial communities is deeply influenced by the physical and chemical architecture of the local microenvironment. The complexity of this parameter space in naturally occurring systems has made a clear understanding of the key drivers of community development elusive. Here, we examine the role of spatial confinement on community development using a microwell platform that allows for assembly and monitoring of unique microbial communities en masse. This platform was designed to contain microwells with varied size features in order to mimic various levels of spatial confinement found in natural systems. Microbial populations assembled inmore » wells with incrementally smaller size features showed increasingly larger variations in inoculum levels. By exploiting this size dependence, large wells were used to assemble homogenous initial populations of Pseudomonas aeruginosa, allowing for reproducible, directed growth trajectories. In contrast, smaller wells were used to assemble a heterogeneous range of initial populations, resulting in a variety of growth and decay trajectories. This allowed for parallel screening of single member communities across different levels of confinement to identify initial conditions in which P. aeruginosa colonies have dramatically higher probabilities of survival. These results demonstrate a unique approach for manipulating the distribution of initial microbial populations assembled into controlled microenvironments to rapidly identify population and environmental parameters conducive or inhibitive to growth. Additionally, multi-member community assembly was characterized to demonstrate the power of this platform for studying the role of member abundance on microbial competition, mutualism and community succession.« less

Stochastic Assembly of Bacteria in Microwell Arrays Reveals the Importance of Confinement in Community Development

DOE PAGES

Hansen, Ryan H.; Timm, Andrea C.; Timm, Collin M.; ...

2016-05-06

The structure, function and evolving composition of microbial communities is deeply influenced by the physical and chemical architecture of the local microenvironment. The complexity of this parameter space in naturally occurring systems has made a clear understanding of the key drivers of community development elusive. Here, we examine the role of spatial confinement on community development using a microwell platform that allows for assembly and monitoring of unique microbial communities en masse. This platform was designed to contain microwells with varied size features in order to mimic various levels of spatial confinement found in natural systems. Microbial populations assembled inmore » wells with incrementally smaller size features showed increasingly larger variations in inoculum levels. By exploiting this size dependence, large wells were used to assemble homogenous initial populations of Pseudomonas aeruginosa, allowing for reproducible, directed growth trajectories. In contrast, smaller wells were used to assemble a heterogeneous range of initial populations, resulting in a variety of growth and decay trajectories. This allowed for parallel screening of single member communities across different levels of confinement to identify initial conditions in which P. aeruginosa colonies have dramatically higher probabilities of survival. These results demonstrate a unique approach for manipulating the distribution of initial microbial populations assembled into controlled microenvironments to rapidly identify population and environmental parameters conducive or inhibitive to growth. Additionally, multi-member community assembly was characterized to demonstrate the power of this platform for studying the role of member abundance on microbial competition, mutualism and community succession.« less

An agent-based modeling framework for evaluating hypotheses on risks for developing autism: effects of the gut microbial environment.

PubMed

Weston, Bronson; Fogal, Benjamin; Cook, Daniel; Dhurjati, Prasad

2015-04-01

The number of cases diagnosed with Autism Spectrum Disorders is rising at an alarming rate with the Centers for Disease Control estimating the 2014 incidence rate as 1 in 68. Recently, it has been hypothesized that gut bacteria may contribute to the development of autism. Specifically, the relative balances between the inflammatory microbes clostridia and desulfovibrio and the anti-inflammatory microbe bifidobacteria may become destabilized prior to autism development. The imbalance leads to a leaky gut, characterized by a more porous epithelial membrane resulting in microbial toxin release into the blood, which may contribute to brain inflammation and autism development. To test how changes in population dynamics of the gut microbiome may lead to the imbalanced microbial populations associated with autism patients, we constructed a novel agent-based model of clostridia, desulfovibrio, and bifidobacteria population interactions in the gut. The model demonstrates how changing physiological conditions in the gut can affect the population dynamics of the microbiome. Simulations using our agent-based model indicate that despite large perturbations to initial levels of bacteria, the populations robustly achieve a single steady-state given similar gut conditions. These simulation results suggests that disturbance such as a prebiotic or antibiotic treatment may only transiently affect the gut microbiome. However, sustained prebiotic treatments may correct low population counts of bifidobacteria. Furthermore, our simulations suggest that clostridia growth rate is a key determinant of risk of autism development. Treatment of high-risk infants with supra-physiological levels of lysozymes may suppress clostridia growth rate, resulting in a steep decrease in the clostridia population and therefore reduced risk of autism development. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Population dynamics among Asmat hunter-gatherers of New Guinea: data, methods, comparisons.

PubMed

Van Arsdale, P W

1978-12-01

Since 1953 the Asmat hunter-gatherers of Irian Jaya have been experiencing rapid cultural change, yet demographically they still can be classified as "living primitives." Methods of nonstandard data analysis are used in an effort to provide specific information on age-sex structure, fertility, birthrates, death rates, population growth, internal migration, and life expectancy and to aid in the development of a 2-part model of population growth encompassing the immediate precontact and contact eras. The population data upon which the discussion is based were obtained in 1973 and 1974 as part of a broader field study that aimed at assessing the impact of externally induced culture change. Special attention is given to the continuing although reduced impact of infanticide. Brief comparisons with other Melanesian and 3rd world societies are presented; the Asmat average annual growth rate of 1.5% since 1st permanent contact in 1953 contrasts with the generally higher rates reported for most of these other groups.

Report of the Microbial Development Working Group

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nelson, G.

1985-01-01

In formulating ideas on the relationship of gravity to the development, growth, and reproduction of microorganisms, a rather liberal definition of microorganisms is used which includes bacteria, yeasts, protists, filamentous fungi, and single cells in culture. A principal advantage of microorganisms as experimental subjects is the rigor with which they can be defined and controlled. As single cells, each cell may be regarded as identical to the others in the population. This property applies to the morphology, physiology, and genetic parameters of the cells. The growth and development of the population is subject to precise manipulation as the nutritional requirements are known and minimal media formulations have been developed. Growth and differentiation can be manipulated in a variety of ways, such as alteration of the culture temperature and food supply, or by use of mutants. Finally, the short generation times of microorganisms provide the opportunity to conduct multigenerational studies within practical time limits and, in a similar vein, cellular responses to various stimuli or stresses are conveniently monitored because of the rapid response times of single cells.

[Economic growth with zero population growth and with declining population].

PubMed

Kurz, R

1982-05-01

The effects of both zero population growth and a declining population on economic growth are considered. Although the neoclassical theory of economic growth leads to optimistic results in such cases, the author suggests that this theory cannot be used as a basis for political action. The need for further research into the economic effects of a stationary or declining population is stressed. (summary in ENG)

Reproductive responses of northern goshawks to variable prey populations

Treesearch

Susan R. Salafsky; Richard T. Reynolds; Barry R. Noon; John A. Wiens

2007-01-01

Developing comprehensive conservation strategies requires knowledge of factors influencing population growth and persistence. Although variable prey resources are often associated with fluctuations in raptor demographic parameters, the mechanisms of food limitation are poorly understood, especially for a generalist predator like the northern goshawk (Accipiter...

Utilizing Healthcare Developments, Demographic Data with Statistical Techniques to Estimate the Diarrhoea Prevalence in India.

PubMed

Srivastava, Shweta; Vatsalya, Vatsalya; Arora, Ashoo; Arora, Kashmiri L; Karch, Robert

2012-03-22

Diarrhoea is one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in developing countries in Africa and South Asia such as India. Prevalence of diarrheal diseases in those countries is higher than developed western world and largely has been associated with socio-economic and sanitary conditions. However, present available data has not been sufficiently evaluated to study the role of other factors like healthcare development, population density, sex and regional influence on diarrheal prevalence pattern. Study was performed to understand the relationship of diarrheal prevalence with specific measures namely; healthcare services development, demographics, population density, socio-economic conditions, sex, and regional prevalence patterns in India. Data from Annual national health reports and other epidemiological studies were included and statistically analyzed. Our results demonstrate significant correlation of the disease prevalence pattern with certain measures like healthcare centers, population growth rate, sex and region-specific morbidity. Available information on sanitation like water supply and toilet availability and socioeconomic conditions like poverty and literacy measures could only be associated as trends of significance. This study can be valuable for improvisation of appropriate strategies focused on important measures like healthcare resources, population growth and regional significances to evaluate prevalence patterns and management of the diarrhoea locally and globally.

Effects of binge drinking on infant growth and development in an Inuit sample.

PubMed

Fraser, Sarah L; Muckle, Gina; Abdous, Belkacem B; Jacobson, Joseph L; Jacobson, Sandra W

2012-05-01

Prenatal exposure to an average of 0.5 oz absolute alcohol per day (the equivalent of 7 standard drinks per week) during pregnancy has been found to be associated with numerous adverse effects on pre- and postnatal development. In the animal model, concentrated alcohol exposure has been found to lead to more adverse effects than exposure to the same total quantity of alcohol ingested in smaller doses over a longer period of time. The primary aim of this study is to determine whether, in a population where binge drinking is common but total alcohol consumption across pregnancy is low, prenatal exposure to alcohol is associated with effects on prenatal growth, visual acuity and cognitive development during infancy. The second aim is to determine which of several indicators of alcohol consumption best predicts pre- and postnatal outcomes. Data were collected from 216 Inuit women and their infants living in Nunavik, the northern region of Québec. Maternal interviews were conducted during mid-pregnancy and at 1 and 6 months postpartum. Birth weight, length, and head circumference were assessed at delivery. Visual acuity and cognitive development were assessed at 6 months of age. In this population in which infrequent heavy episodic drinking is common, even occasional binge exposure was associated with reduced prenatal growth and poorer visual acuity at 6 months of age. A simple dichotomous measure of binge drinking during pregnancy provided the best predictor of fetal growth and 6-month acuity. The population studied here is unusual in terms of its pattern of binge alcohol consumption. To our knowledge, this is the first study to observe effects of binge drinking during pregnancy on infant growth and development in a sample where the average daily alcohol intake is low (<0.5 ounces). Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A reexamination of age-related variation in body weight and morphometry of Maryland nutria

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sherfy, M.H.; Mollett, T.A.; McGowan, K.R.; Daugherty, S.L.

2006-01-01

Age-related variation in morphometry has been documented for many species. Knowledge of growth patterns can be useful for modeling energetics, detecting physiological influences on populations, and predicting age. These benefits have shown value in understanding population dynamics of invasive species, particularly in developing efficient control and eradication programs. However, development and evaluation of descriptive and predictive models is a critical initial step in this process. Accordingly, we used data from necropsies of 1,544 nutria (Myocastor coypus) collected in Maryland, USA, to evaluate the accuracy of previously published models for prediction of nutria age from body weight. Published models underestimated body weights of our animals, especially for ages <3. We used cross-validation procedures to develop and evaluate models for describing nutria growth patterns and for predicting nutria age. We derived models from a randomly selected model-building data set (n = 192-193 M, 217-222 F) and evaluated them with the remaining animals (n = 487-488 M, 642-647 F). We used nonlinear regression to develop Gompertz growth-curve models relating morphometric variables to age. Predicted values of morphometric variables fell within the 95% confidence limits of their true values for most age classes. We also developed predictive models for estimating nutria age from morphometry, using linear regression of log-transformed age on morphometric variables. The evaluation data set corresponded with 95% prediction intervals from the new models. Predictive models for body weight and length provided greater accuracy and less bias than models for foot length and axillary girth. Our growth models accurately described age-related variation in nutria morphometry, and our predictive models provided accurate estimates of ages from morphometry that will be useful for live-captured individuals. Our models offer better accuracy and precision than previously published models, providing a capacity for modeling energetics and growth patterns of Maryland nutria as well as an empirical basis for determining population age structure from live-captured animals.

Language Growth in Children with Heterogeneous Language Disorders: A Population Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Norbury, Courtenay Frazier; Vamvakas, George; Gooch, Debbie; Baird, Gillian; Charman, Tony; Simonoff, Emily; Pickles, Andrew

2017-01-01

Background: Language development has been characterised by significant individual stability from school entry. However, the extent to which trajectories of language growth vary in children with language disorder as a function of co-occurring developmental challenges is a question of theoretical import, with implications for service provision.…

Population Issues: From Obscurity to Worldwide Interest. Population: Before and after Bucharest [And] Ford Foundation Programs: Review and Projection. A Ford Foundation Reprint.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Saunders, Lyle; Harkavy, Oscar

This essay traces the actions taken by governments and private agencies in the past two decades to limit population growth and examines the growing emphasis on linking population and development concerns. It was presented to the annual conference of the Ford Foundation's International Division on September 22, 1975. The time between the end of…

An SNP in the MyoD1 gene intron 2 associated with growth and carcass traits in three duck populations.

PubMed

Wu, Y; Pi, J S; Pan, A L; Pu, Y J; Du, J P; Shen, J; Liang, Z H; Zhang, J R

2012-12-01

Myogenic differentiation 1 (MyoD1) genes belong to the MyoD gene family and play key roles in growth and muscle development. This study was designed to investigate the effects of variants in the MyoD1 gene on duck growth and carcass traits. Three duck populations (Cherry Valley, Jingjiang, and Muscovy) were sampled, their growth and carcass traits were measured, and they were genotyped using the PCR-RFLP method. The results showed one novel polymorphism, an alteration in intron 2 of the MyoD1 gene (A to T). It was associated with the traits of weight at 8 weeks, carcass weight, breast muscle weight, leg muscle weight, eviscerated percentage, percentage of leg muscle weight, dressing percentage, and lean meat percentage. This alteration in intron 2 of MyoD1 may be linked with potential major loci or genes affecting some growth and carcass traits.

Scale-dependent portfolio effects explain growth inflation and volatility reduction in landscape demography

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Population demography is central to fundamental ecology and for predicting range shifts, decline of threatened species, and spread of invasive organisms. There is a mismatch between most demographic work, carried out on few populations and at local scales, and the need to predict dynamics at landscape and regional scales. Inspired by concepts from landscape ecology and Markowitz’s portfolio theory, we develop a landscape portfolio platform to quantify and predict the behavior of multiple populations, scaling up the expectation and variance of the dynamics of an ensemble of populations. We illustrate this framework using a 35-y time series on gypsy moth populations. We demonstrate the demography accumulation curve in which the collective growth of the ensemble depends on the number of local populations included, highlighting a minimum but adequate number of populations for both regional-scale persistence and cross-scale inference. The attainable set of landscape portfolios further suggests tools for regional population management for both threatened and invasive species. PMID:29109261

Exploring the multidimensionality of stature variation in the past through comparisons of archaeological and living populations.

PubMed

Vercellotti, Giuseppe; Piperata, Barbara A; Agnew, Amanda M; Wilson, Warren M; Dufour, Darna L; Reina, Julio C; Boano, Rosa; Justus, Hedy M; Larsen, Clark Spencer; Stout, Sam D; Sciulli, Paul W

2014-10-01

Adult stature variation is commonly attributed to differential stress-levels during development. However, due to selective mortality and heterogeneous frailty, a population's tall stature may be more indicative of high selective pressures than of positive life conditions. This article examines stature in a biocultural context and draws parallels between bioarchaeological and living populations to explore the multidimensionality of stature variation in the past. This study investigates: 1) stature differences between archaeological populations exposed to low or high stress (inferred from skeletal indicators); 2) similarities in growth retardation patterns between archaeological and living groups; and 3) the apportionment of variance in growth outcomes at the regional level in archaeological and living populations. Anatomical stature estimates were examined in relation to skeletal stress indicators (cribra orbitalia, porotic hyperostosis, linear enamel hypoplasia) in two medieval bioarchaeological populations. Stature and biocultural information were gathered for comparative living samples from South America. Results indicate 1) significant (P < 0.01) differences in stature between groups exposed to different levels of skeletal stress; 2) greater prevalence of stunting among living groups, with similar patterns in socially stratified archaeological and modern groups; and 3) a degree of regional variance in growth outcomes consistent with that observed for highly selected traits. The relationship between early stress and growth is confounded by several factors-including catch-up growth, cultural buffering, and social inequality. The interpretations of early life conditions based on the relationship between stress and stature should be advanced with caution. Copyright © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The Development of Cottonwood Plantations on Alluvial Soils: Dimensions, Volume, Phytomass, Nutrient Content and Other Characteristics

Treesearch

M. G. Shelton; G. L. Switzer; L. E. Nelson; J. B. Baker; C. W. Mueller

1982-01-01

Phytomass and nutrient accumulation are reported for eight intensively managed cottonwood plantations, ranging in age from four to 16 years on good sites. The results were developed from 24 sample trees and stand populations using the mean tree technique. The early growth of cottonwood plantations was rapid, and diameter and height growth averaged 3.6 cm and 2.6 m,...

Life-history theory and climate change: resolving population and parental investment paradoxes

PubMed Central

Quinlan, Robert

2016-01-01

Population growth in the next half-century is on pace to raise global carbon emissions by half. Carbon emissions are associated with fertility as a by-product of somatic and parental investment, which is predicted to involve time orientation/preference as a mediating psychological mechanism. Here, we draw upon life-history theory (LHT) to investigate associations between future orientation and fertility, and their impacts on carbon emissions. We argue ‘K-strategy’ life history (LH) in high-income countries has resulted in parental investment behaviours involving future orientation that, paradoxically, promote unsustainable carbon emissions, thereby lowering the Earth's K or carrying capacity. Increasing the rate of approach towards this capacity are ‘r-strategy’ LHs in low-income countries that promote population growth. We explore interactions between future orientation and development that might slow the rate of approach towards global K. Examination of 67 000 individuals across 75 countries suggests that future orientation interacts with the relationship between environmental risk and fertility and with development related parental investment, particularly investment in higher education, to slow population growth and mitigate per capita carbon emissions. Results emphasize that LHT will be an important tool in understanding the demographic and consumption patterns that drive anthropogenic climate change. PMID:28018631

TRIENNIAL LACTATION SYMPOSIUM/BOLFA: Plasticity of mammary development in the prepubertal bovine mammary gland.

PubMed

Akers, R M

2017-12-01

Although peripubertal mammary development represents only a small fraction of the total mass of mammary parenchyma present in the udder at the end of gestation and into lactation, there is increasing evidence that the tissue foundations created in early life can affect future mammary development and function. Studies on expression of estrogen and progesterone receptors seem to confirm the relevance of these steroids in prepubertal mammary development, but connections with other growth factors, hormones, and local tissue factors remain elusive. Enhanced preweaning feeding in the bovine appears to enhance the capacity of mammary tissue to response to mammogenic stimulation. This suggests the possibility that improved early nutrition might allow for creation of stem or progenitor cell populations to better support the massive ductal growth and lobulo-alveolar development during gestation. Increasing evidence that immune cells are involved in mammary development suggests there are unexpected and poorly understood connections between the immune system and mammary development. This is nearly unexplored in ruminants. Development of new tools to identify, isolate, and characterize cell populations within the developing bovine mammary gland offer the possibility of identifying and perhaps altering populations of mammary stem cells or selected progenitor cells to modulate mammary development and, possibly, mammary function.

Toward the year 2000.

PubMed

1973-12-01

If the world population continues to grow at its present rate, in only about 35 more years there will be an additional 3.5 billion people. Although it is likely that the growth rate will slow down in the future, there will be an increase of between 2.3-3.5 billion people by the year 2000. At that time the Asian, African, and Latin American regions of the world will account for between 81-84% of world population, regardless of whether there is a fertility decline. Simultaneously, the populations of Europe and North America will decrease from 26 to between 16-19%. The People's Republic of China is now working to contain population increase, but despite the efforts for every 10 Chinese alive in 1970 there will be 15 in the year 2000. For the other 9 most populous less developed countries, there will be nearly 20 persons for every 10. As this figure is 12 in the year 2000 for every 10 Russians or Americans in 1970, a significant reduction in the growth rate of population in the 10 largest less developed countries would do much to reduce the world's population problems. The number of children born between now and the year 2000 depends on the fertility of all women in the childbearing ages during that period. Finally, as the population of the world continues to increase, there will be a marked concentration of the world's children in the poorer nations, and this will be a major problem in these developing countries.

[Population dynamics and development in the Caribbean].

PubMed

Boland, B

1995-12-01

The impact is examined of socioeconomic factors on Caribbean population dynamics. This work begins by describing the socioeconomic context of the late 1980s and early 1990s, under the influence of the economic changes and crises of the 1980s. The small size, openness, dependency, and lack of diversification of the Caribbean economies have made them vulnerable to external pressures. The Bahamas and Belize had economic growth rates exceeding 5% annually during 1981-90, but most of the countries had low or negative growth. Unemployment, poverty, the structural adjustment measures adopted in the mid-1980s, and declines in social spending exacerbated general economic conditions. In broad terms, the population situation of the Caribbean is marked by diversity of sizes and growth rates. A few countries oriented toward services and tourism had demographic growth rates exceeding 3%, while at least 7 had almost no growth or negative growth. Population growth rates reflected different combinations of natural increase and migration. Crude death rates ranged from around 5/1000 to 11/1000, except in Haiti, and all countries of the region except Haiti had life expectancies of 70 years or higher. Despite fertility decline, the average crude birth rate was still relatively high at 26/1000, and the rate of natural increase was 1.8% annually for the region. Nearly half of the regional population was under 15 or over 65 years old. The body of this work provides greater detail on mortality patterns, variations by sex, infant mortality, causes of death, and implications for policy. The discussion of fertility includes general patterns and trends, age specific fertility rates, contraceptive prevalence, levels of adolescent fertility and age factors in adolescent sexual behavior, characteristics of adolescent unions, contraceptive usage, health and social consequences of adolescent childbearing, and the search for solutions. The final section describes the magnitude and causes of emigration from the Caribbean and the impact of emigration on population composition, with attention to intraregional and return migration.

Precise, High-throughput Analysis of Bacterial Growth.

PubMed

Kurokawa, Masaomi; Ying, Bei-Wen

2017-09-19

Bacterial growth is a central concept in the development of modern microbial physiology, as well as in the investigation of cellular dynamics at the systems level. Recent studies have reported correlations between bacterial growth and genome-wide events, such as genome reduction and transcriptome reorganization. Correctly analyzing bacterial growth is crucial for understanding the growth-dependent coordination of gene functions and cellular components. Accordingly, the precise quantitative evaluation of bacterial growth in a high-throughput manner is required. Emerging technological developments offer new experimental tools that allow updates of the methods used for studying bacterial growth. The protocol introduced here employs a microplate reader with a highly optimized experimental procedure for the reproducible and precise evaluation of bacterial growth. This protocol was used to evaluate the growth of several previously described Escherichia coli strains. The main steps of the protocol are as follows: the preparation of a large number of cell stocks in small vials for repeated tests with reproducible results, the use of 96-well plates for high-throughput growth evaluation, and the manual calculation of two major parameters (i.e., maximal growth rate and population density) representing the growth dynamics. In comparison to the traditional colony-forming unit (CFU) assay, which counts the cells that are cultured in glass tubes over time on agar plates, the present method is more efficient and provides more detailed temporal records of growth changes, but has a stricter detection limit at low population densities. In summary, the described method is advantageous for the precise and reproducible high-throughput analysis of bacterial growth, which can be used to draw conceptual conclusions or to make theoretical observations.

Urban and rural land use in Puerto Rico

Treesearch

Sebastian Martinuzzi; William A. Gould; Olga M. Ramos Gonzalez; Maya Quinones; Michael E. Jimenez

2008-01-01

We have developed three land use regions for Puerto Rico: Urban, Suburban, and Rural (Gould et al. 2008; Martinuzzi et al. 2007). These three regions can also be considered urban, densely-populated rural, and sparsely-populated rural or as urban and wildland with a wildland-urban interface. The suburban use is the most dynamic in terms of population growth and land...

A Method for Mapping Future Urbanization in the United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bounoua, Lahouari; Nigro, Joseph; Thome, Kurtis; Zhang, Ping; Fathi, Najlaa; Lachir, Asia

2018-01-01

Cities are poised to absorb additional people. Their sustainability, or ability to accommodate a population increase without depleting resources or compromising future growth, depends on whether they harness the efficiency gains from urban land management. Population is often projected as a bulk national number without details about spatial distribution. We use Landsat and population data in a methodology to project and map U.S. urbanization for the year 2020 and document its spatial pattern. This methodology is important to spatially disaggregate projected population and assist land managers to monitor land use, assess infrastructure and distribute resources. We found the U.S. west coast urban areas to have the fastest population growth with relatively small land consumption resulting in future decrease in per capita land use. Except for Miami (FL), most other U.S. large urban areas, especially in the Midwest, are growing spatially faster than their population and inadvertently consuming land needed for ecosystem services. In large cities, such as New York, Chicago, Houston and Miami, land development is expected more in suburban zones than urban cores. In contrast, in Los Angeles land development within the city core is greater than in its suburbs.

Sampling through time and phylodynamic inference with coalescent and birth–death models

PubMed Central

Volz, Erik M.; Frost, Simon D. W.

2014-01-01

Many population genetic models have been developed for the purpose of inferring population size and growth rates from random samples of genetic data. We examine two popular approaches to this problem, the coalescent and the birth–death-sampling model (BDM), in the context of estimating population size and birth rates in a population growing exponentially according to the birth–death branching process. For sequences sampled at a single time, we found the coalescent and the BDM gave virtually indistinguishable results in terms of the growth rates and fraction of the population sampled, even when sampling from a small population. For sequences sampled at multiple time points, we find that the birth–death model estimators are subject to large bias if the sampling process is misspecified. Since BDMs incorporate a model of the sampling process, we show how much of the statistical power of BDMs arises from the sequence of sample times and not from the genealogical tree. This motivates the development of a new coalescent estimator, which is augmented with a model of the known sampling process and is potentially more precise than the coalescent that does not use sample time information. PMID:25401173

Life History theory hypotheses on child growth: Potential implications for short and long-term child growth, development and health.

PubMed

Said-Mohamed, Rihlat; Pettifor, John M; Norris, Shane A

2018-01-01

Life history theory integrates ecological, physiological, and molecular layers within an evolutionary framework to understand organisms' strategies to optimize survival and reproduction. Two life history hypotheses and their implications for child growth, development, and health (illustrated in the South African context) are reviewed here. One hypothesis suggests that there is an energy trade-off between linear growth and brain growth. Undernutrition in infancy and childhood may trigger adaptive physiological mechanisms prioritizing the brain at the expense of body growth. Another hypothesis is that the period from conception to infancy is a critical window of developmental plasticity of linear growth, the duration of which may vary between and within populations. The transition from infancy to childhood may mark the end of a critical window of opportunity for improving child growth. Both hypotheses emphasize the developmental plasticity of linear growth and the potential determinants of growth variability (including the role of parent-offspring conflict in maternal resources allocation). Implications of these hypotheses in populations with high burdens of undernutrition and infections are discussed. In South Africa, HIV/AIDS during pregnancy (associated with adverse birth outcomes, short duration of breastfeeding, and social consequences) may lead to a shortened window of developmental plasticity of growth. Furthermore, undernutrition and infectious diseases in children living in South Africa, a country undergoing a rapid nutrition transition, may have adverse consequences on individuals' cognitive abilities and risks of cardio-metabolic diseases. Studies are needed to identify physiological mechanisms underlying energy allocation between biological functions and their potential impacts on health. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

[A model of world population growth as an experiment in systematic research].

PubMed

Kapitsa, S

1997-01-01

A mathematical model was developed for the estimation of global population growth, and the estimates were compared with those of the UN and covered the stretch of 4.4 million years B.C. to the years 2175 and 2500 A.D. The estimates were also broken down into human, geological, and technological historical periods. The model showed that human population would stabilize at the level of 14 billion around 2500 A.D. and 13 billion around 2200 A.D., in accordance with UN projections. It also revealed the history of human population growth through the following stages (UN figures are listed in parentheses): 100,000, about 1.6 million years ago; 5 (1-5) million, 35,000 B.C.; 21 (10-15) million, 7000 B.C.; 46 (47) million, 2000 B.C.; 93 (100-230) million, at the time of Christ; 185 (275-345) million, 1000 A.D.; 366 (450-540) million, 1500 A.D.; 887 (907) million, 1800 A.D.; 1158 (1170) million, 1850 A.D.; 1656 (1650-1710) million, 1900 A.D.; 2812 (2515) million, 1950 A.D.; 5253 (5328) million, 1990 A.D.; 6265 (6261) million, 2000 A.D.; 10,487 (10,019) million, 2050 A.D.; 12,034 (11,186) million, 2100 A.D.; 12,648 (11,543) million, 2150 A.D.; 12,946 (11,600) million, 2200 A.D.; and 13,536 million, 2500 A.D. The model advanced the investigation of phenomena by studying the interactions between economical, technological, social, cultural, and biological processes. The analysis showed that humanity has reached a critical phase in its growth and that development in each period depended on external, not internal, factors. This permits the formulation of the principle of demographic imperative (distinct from the Malthusian principle), which states that resources determine the speed and extent of the growth of population.

Combination of a higher-tier flow-through system and population modeling to assess the effects of time-variable exposure of isoproturon on the green algae Desmodesmus subspicatus and Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata.

PubMed

Weber, Denis; Schaefer, Dieter; Dorgerloh, Michael; Bruns, Eric; Goerlitz, Gerhard; Hammel, Klaus; Preuss, Thomas G; Ratte, Hans Toni

2012-04-01

A flow-through system was developed to investigate the effects of time-variable exposure of pesticides on algae. A recently developed algae population model was used for simulations supported and verified by laboratory experiments. Flow-through studies with Desmodesmus subspicatus and Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata under time-variable exposure to isoproturon were performed, in which the exposure patterns were based on the results of FOrum for Co-ordination of pesticide fate models and their USe (FOCUS) model calculations for typical exposure situations via runoff or drain flow. Different types of pulsed exposure events were realized, including a whole range of repeated pulsed and steep peaks as well as periods of constant exposure. Both species recovered quickly in terms of growth from short-term exposure and according to substance dissipation from the system. Even at a peak 10 times the maximum predicted environmental concentration of isoproturon, only transient effects occurred on algae populations. No modified sensitivity or reduced growth was observed after repeated exposure. Model predictions of algal growth in the flow-through tests agreed well with the experimental data. The experimental boundary conditions and the physiological properties of the algae were used as the only model input. No calibration or parameter fitting was necessary. The combination of the flow-through experiments with the algae population model was revealed to be a powerful tool for the assessment of pulsed exposure on algae. It allowed investigating the growth reduction and recovery potential of algae after complex exposure, which is not possible with standard laboratory experiments alone. The results of the combined approach confirm the beneficial use of population models as supporting tools in higher-tier risk assessments of pesticides. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

Population and the American future: excerpts.

PubMed

1972-05-01

In the report by the Commission on Population Growth and the American Future, one of the basic themes is the recommendation for the substitution of quality for quantity. To improve the quality of our existence while slowing growth will require a recasting of American values. The immediate goal is to modernize demographic behavior by encouraging the American people to make population choices on the basis of greater rationality rather than tradition or custom, ignorance or chance. A reduction in the rate of population growth would bring important benefits economically. Population growth is one of the factors affecting the demand for resources and the deterioration of the environment in the U.S. With slower population growth leading to a stabilized population, we gain time to devise solutions, resources to implement them, and greater freedom of choice in deciding how we want to live in the future. Unless we address our major domestic social problems in the short run, beginning with racism and poverty, we will not be able to resolve fully the question of population growth. The Commission recommends enactment of a Population Education Act to assist school systems in establishing well planned population education programs. Sex education should be available to all, and should be presented in a responsible manner through community organizations, mass media and schools. Both public and private forces should join to assure that adequate childcare programs be available. The Commission recommends that all children, regardless of the circumstances of their birth, be accorded fair and equal status socially, morally and legally. It recommends changes in attitudes and practices to encourage adoption. Congress and the states should approve the Equal Rights Amendment and all levels of government should undertake positive programs to ensure freedom from discrimination based on sex. States should eliminate existing legal inhibitions and restrictions on access to contraceptive information, procedures and supplies, and develop statutes affirming the desirability of this. They should adopt affirmative legislation permitting minors to receive contraceptive and prophylactic information and services. All administrative restrictions on access to voluntary contraceptive sterilization should be eliminated. State laws on abortion should be liberalized but abortion should not be considered a primary means of fertility control. Priority in research should be in reproductive biology and in the search for improved methods of fertility control. There should be a national policy and voluntary program to reduce unwanted fertility, improve the outcome of pregnancy and the health of children. America should welcome and plan for a stablized population. The situation of illegal immigration is serious. Immigration levels should not be increased. Action needs to be taken to increase freedom of choice of residential location through the elimination of current patterns of racial and economic segregation. Improvements are recommended for the basic statistics and research in the federal government. Organizational changes are needed to improve the government's capacity to develop and implement population related programs.

Family Planning and Deforestation: Evidence from the Ecuadorian Amazon.

PubMed

Sellers, Samuel

2017-06-01

Despite an abundant body of literature exploring the relationship between population growth and forest cover change, comparatively little research has explored the forest cover impacts of family planning use, which is a key determinant of the rate of population growth in many developing country contexts. Using data from a farm-level panel survey in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon, this paper addresses whether family planning use impacts forest cover change. Longitudinal model results show that after controlling for household life cycle and land use variables, family planning use did not have an independent effect on deforestation, reforestation, or net forest loss between 1990 and 2008. Forest cover change patterns appear indicative of farm life cycle effects. However, family planning use is associated with reduced subsequent fertility among households, suggesting that the relationship between population growth from births and forest cover change may be limited in this setting.

Family Planning and Deforestation: Evidence from the Ecuadorian Amazon

PubMed Central

Sellers, Samuel

2017-01-01

Despite an abundant body of literature exploring the relationship between population growth and forest cover change, comparatively little research has explored the forest cover impacts of family planning use, which is a key determinant of the rate of population growth in many developing country contexts. Using data from a farm-level panel survey in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon, this paper addresses whether family planning use impacts forest cover change. Longitudinal model results show that after controlling for household life cycle and land use variables, family planning use did not have an independent effect on deforestation, reforestation, or net forest loss between 1990 and 2008. Forest cover change patterns appear indicative of farm life cycle effects. However, family planning use is associated with reduced subsequent fertility among households, suggesting that the relationship between population growth from births and forest cover change may be limited in this setting. PMID:29056808

Population Dynamics of a Salmonella Lytic Phage and Its Host: Implications of the Host Bacterial Growth Rate in Modelling

PubMed Central

Santos, Sílvio B.; Carvalho, Carla; Azeredo, Joana; Ferreira, Eugénio C.

2014-01-01

The prevalence and impact of bacteriophages in the ecology of bacterial communities coupled with their ability to control pathogens turn essential to understand and predict the dynamics between phage and bacteria populations. To achieve this knowledge it is essential to develop mathematical models able to explain and simulate the population dynamics of phage and bacteria. We have developed an unstructured mathematical model using delay-differential equations to predict the interactions between a broad-host-range Salmonella phage and its pathogenic host. The model takes into consideration the main biological parameters that rule phage-bacteria interactions likewise the adsorption rate, latent period, burst size, bacterial growth rate, and substrate uptake rate, among others. The experimental validation of the model was performed with data from phage-interaction studies in a 5 L bioreactor. The key and innovative aspect of the model was the introduction of variations in the latent period and adsorption rate values that are considered as constants in previous developed models. By modelling the latent period as a normal distribution of values and the adsorption rate as a function of the bacterial growth rate it was possible to accurately predict the behaviour of the phage-bacteria population. The model was shown to predict simulated data with a good agreement with the experimental observations and explains how a lytic phage and its host bacteria are able to coexist. PMID:25051248

Saugus River and Tributaries Flood Damage Reduction Study; Lynn, Malden, Revere and Saugus, Massachusetts. Section 2. Final Environmental Impact Statement and Final Environmental Impact Report

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-12-01

Growth Commercial Fishing and Commercial Fishing 91 Fleet Q Employment 92 R Population and Community Growth , Including 92 Displacement S Public Facilities...Community Growth , Including 128 Displacement S Public Facilities and Services 129 T Transportation 129 U Navigation 130 V Recreation and Open Space 133 W... Growth and more intensive development in this already densely built-up area, plus rising sea levels, guarantee the continuation of a dangerous

Plastic rates of development and the effect of thermal extremes on offspring fitness in a cold-climate viviparous lizard.

PubMed

Cunningham, George D; Fitzpatrick, Luisa J; While, Geoffrey M; Wapstra, Erik

2018-05-23

Populations at the climatic margins of a species' distribution can be exposed to conditions that cause developmental stress, resulting in developmental abnormalities. Even within the thermal range of normal development, phenotypes often vary with developmental temperature (i.e., thermal phenotypic plasticity). These effects can have significant consequences for organismal fitness and, thus, population persistence. Reptiles, as ectotherms, are particularly vulnerable to thermal effects on development and are, therefore, considered to be at comparatively high risk from changing climates. Understanding the extent and direction of thermal effects on phenotypes and their fitness consequences is crucial if we are to make meaningful predictions of how populations and species will respond as climates warm. Here, we experimentally manipulated the thermal conditions experienced by females from a high-altitude, cold-adapted population of the viviparous skink, Niveoscincus ocellatus, to examine the consequences of thermal conditions at the margins of this population's normal temperature range. We found strong effects of thermal conditions on the development of key phenotypic traits that have implications for fitness. Specifically, we found that offspring born earlier as a result of high temperatures during gestation had increased growth over the first winter of life, but there was no effect on offspring survival, nor was there an effect of developmental temperature on the incidence of developmental abnormalities. Combined, our results suggest that advancing birth dates that result from warming climates may have positive effects in this population via increased growth. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The timid crusade.

PubMed

Grant, L

1994-01-01

US population at present growth rates will approach 400 million and maybe pass 500 million by year 2050. Population growth may, however, be reduced by lowering fertility and/or reducing immigration flows. The author opens with the argument that President Bill Clinton should follow ex-President Nixon's recommendation to establish a national goal of providing adequate family planning services for all who want them and notes early efforts to affect population policy in the US. The National Commission on Population Growth and the American Future concluded in 1972 that the government should establish a long-term strategy to monitor demographic, resource, and environmental trends; reform government archaic organizations in anticipation of growing urbanization; adopt a national, publicly funded, volunteer program to reduce unwanted fertility, improve pregnancy outcomes, and improve child health; and forcibly limit immigration. These recommendations were shelved, but certainly warrant consideration and adoption two decades later. A less pointed Global 2000 Report was present to President Carter in 1980. Environmentalist groups began to address population in the late 1970s and 1980s, with eighteen environmental organizations joining forces in 1988 to develop the Blueprint for the Environment as a guide for the incoming US administration. The author describes the views of these groups on US population and stresses the need for them to lobby on population. Potential approaches are suggested.

Clarifying the effects of dwarfing rootstock on vegetative and reproductive growth during tree development: a study on apple trees.

PubMed

Costes, E; García-Villanueva, E

2007-08-01

Despite the widespread use of dwarfing rootstocks in the fruit-tree industry, their impact on tree architectural development and possible role in the within-tree balance between growth and flowering are still poorly understood, in particular during the early years of growth. The present study addressed this question in apple trees, through a detailed analysis of shoot populations, i.e. both vegetative and flowering shoots, during tree development. Architectural databases were constructed for trees of two cultivars that were either own-rooted or grafted on dwarfing rootstock. Within-tree shoot demographics and annual shoot characteristics, i.e. their dimensions, number of laterals and flowering, were observed from the first to the fifth year of growth and compared among scion/root system combinations. Differences in axis demographics appeared among scion/root system combinations after the second year of growth. Differences were found (a) in the number of long axes and (b) the number of medium axes. Dwarfing rootstock reduced the total number of axes developed in a tree, and this reduction resulted from proportionally more medium axes and spurs than long axes. The life span of spurs was also shortened. These phenomena appeared after an increase in flowering that started in the second year of growth and involved both axillary and terminal positions. Flowering regularity was also increased in grafted trees. These results confirm that the number of long shoots and flowering potential depend on the cultivar. They indicate that tree architectural plasticity in response to its root system mainly derives from the number of medium shoots developed and follows priorities within the whole tree axis population. There was also evidence for dwarfing rootstock involvement in adjusting the flowering abundance and that differences in flowering occurrence take precedence over those regarding vegetative growth during tree development.

A Gompertz population model with Allee effect and fuzzy initial values

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amarti, Zenia; Nurkholipah, Nenden Siti; Anggriani, Nursanti; Supriatna, Asep K.

2018-03-01

Growth and population dynamics models are important tools used in preparing a good management for society to predict the future of population or species. This has been done by various known methods, one among them is by developing a mathematical model that describes population growth. Models are usually formed into differential equations or systems of differential equations, depending on the complexity of the underlying properties of the population. One example of biological complexity is Allee effect. It is a phenomenon showing a high correlation between very small population size and the mean individual fitness of the population. In this paper the population growth model used is the Gompertz equation model by considering the Allee effect on the population. We explore the properties of the solution to the model numerically using the Runge-Kutta method. Further exploration is done via fuzzy theoretical approach to accommodate uncertainty of the initial values of the model. It is known that an initial value greater than the Allee threshold will cause the solution rises towards carrying capacity asymptotically. However, an initial value smaller than the Allee threshold will cause the solution decreases towards zero asymptotically, which means the population is eventually extinct. Numerical solutions show that modeling uncertain initial value of the critical point A (the Allee threshold) with a crisp initial value could cause the extinction of population of a certain possibilistic degree, depending on the predetermined membership function of the initial value.

Popullution: A Position Paper on Population.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Durner, Mary Beth

This position paper presents an interdisciplinary approach to the study of population. Six main sections are included in the paper: Introduction, The Growth of the Human Population, The Psychological Effects of Population Growth, Overpopulated America, Myths Concerning Population Growth and Control, and Population Education. Section 1, an…

Population growth, inequality and poverty.

PubMed

Rodgers, G

1983-01-01

In this discussion of population growth, inequality, and poverty, the type of relationships that can be observed in intercountry comparisons are explored, reviewing the findings of several other authors, presenting some new estimates using an International Labor Office data bank, considering some basic conceptual problems, and examining some of the theoretical and empirical issues that call for investigation at the national level. Intercountry comparisons, despite their limitations, appear to be the easiest starting point for empirical analysis. The approach adopted by most researchers has been to select 1 or more population indicators and a measure of national income inequality and to explain intercountry differences in 1 or both of these variables in terms of each other and of other indicators of economic and social development. Underlying this methodology is the assumption that there are aspects of demographic and economic change that are common to all countries included in the study, so that differences between countries give some guide to the likely evolution over time within any 1 country. This can be accepted at best with reservations, but given the scarcity of data on the evolution of inequality over time, a working hypothesis of this type appears unavoidable. But, as many of the factors likely to cause population growth and inequality operate over extended periods of time, a dynamic model is indicated. A simpler model, which pays particular attention to lags and variations over time, may generate new insights. A summary of the results of a new international cross-section analysis set up on these lines is presented. Results suggest that contrary to expectations, reducing population growth does not seem to generate longterm benefits for the poor in this model, though some short term gains are found. Increasing equality does appear to generate some decline in population growth, as well as persistent gains in incomes among the poor, but the reductions in population growth look small when set against the substantial reduction in inequality assumed. The central problem is that inequality and poverty are complex variables conceptually and empirically. 3 major sets of issues are particularly relevant: the nature of the unit of analysis; the reference period; and the conceptualization and measurement of welfare in relation to inequality and demographic change. In interpreting empirical findings, it is necessary to be aware of the different aspects of inequality and the correspondingly varied links with demographic change. The issues raised by the effects of inequality on population growth are distinct from those of population growth on the generation of inequality, and these are separated. Future research possibly will be most productive if it concentrates on the multiple roles of population growth in the transformation of systems of production.

Spatial variability and macro‐scale drivers of growth for native and introduced Flathead Catfish populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Massie, Danielle L.; Smith, Geoffrey; Bonvechio, Timothy F.; Bunch, Aaron J.; Lucchesi, David O.; Wagner, Tyler

2018-01-01

Quantifying spatial variability in fish growth and identifying large‐scale drivers of growth are fundamental to many conservation and management decisions. Although fish growth studies often focus on a single population, it is becoming increasingly clear that large‐scale studies are likely needed for addressing transboundary management needs. This is particularly true for species with high recreational value and for those with negative ecological consequences when introduced outside of their native range, such as the Flathead Catfish Pylodictis olivaris. This study quantified growth variability of the Flathead Catfish across a large portion of its contemporary range to determine whether growth differences existed between habitat types (i.e., reservoirs and rivers) and between native and introduced populations. Additionally, we investigated whether growth parameters varied as a function of latitude and time since introduction (for introduced populations). Length‐at‐age data from 26 populations across 11 states in the USA were modeled using a Bayesian hierarchical von Bertalanffy growth model. Population‐specific growth trajectories revealed large variation in Flathead Catfish growth and relatively high uncertainty in growth parameters for some populations. Relatively high uncertainty was also evident when comparing populations and when quantifying large‐scale patterns. Growth parameters (Brody growth coefficient [K] and theoretical maximum average length [L∞]) were not different (based on overlapping 90% credible intervals) between habitat types or between native and introduced populations. For populations within the introduced range of Flathead Catfish, latitude was negatively correlated with K. For native populations, we estimated an 85% probability that L∞ estimates were negatively correlated with latitude. Contrary to predictions, time since introduction was not correlated with growth parameters in introduced populations of Flathead Catfish. Results of this study suggest that Flathead Catfish growth patterns are likely shaped more strongly by finer‐scale processes (e.g., exploitation or prey abundances) as opposed to macro‐scale drivers.

Digital Image Analysis of Yeast Single Cells Growing in Two Different Oxygen Concentrations to Analyze the Population Growth and to Assist Individual-Based Modeling.

PubMed

Ginovart, Marta; Carbó, Rosa; Blanco, Mónica; Portell, Xavier

2017-01-01

Nowadays control of the growth of Saccharomyces to obtain biomass or cellular wall components is crucial for specific industrial applications. The general aim of this contribution is to deal with experimental data obtained from yeast cells and from yeast cultures to attempt the integration of the two levels of information, individual and population, to progress in the control of yeast biotechnological processes by means of the overall analysis of this set of experimental data, and to assist in the improvement of an individual-based model, namely, INDISIM- Saccha . Populations of S. cerevisiae growing in liquid batch culture, in aerobic and microaerophilic conditions, were studied. A set of digital images was taken during the population growth, and a protocol for the treatment and analyses of the images obtained was established. The piecewise linear model of Buchanan was adjusted to the temporal evolutions of the yeast populations to determine the kinetic parameters and changes of growth phases. In parallel, for all the yeast cells analyzed, values of direct morphological parameters, such as area, perimeter, major diameter, minor diameter, and derived ones, such as circularity and elongation, were obtained. Graphical and numerical methods from descriptive statistics were applied to these data to characterize the growth phases and the budding state of the yeast cells in both experimental conditions, and inferential statistical methods were used to compare the diverse groups of data achieved. Oxidative metabolism of yeast in a medium with oxygen available and low initial sugar concentration can be taken into account in order to obtain a greater number of cells or larger cells. Morphological parameters were analyzed statistically to identify which were the most useful for the discrimination of the different states, according to budding and/or growth phase, in aerobic and microaerophilic conditions. The use of the experimental data for subsequent modeling work was then discussed and compared to simulation results generated with INDISIM- Saccha , which allowed us to advance in the development of this yeast model, and illustrated the utility of data at different levels of observation and the needs and logic behind the development of a microbial individual-based model.

Contributions of long-distance dispersal to population growth in colonising Pinus ponderosa populations.

PubMed

Lesser, Mark R; Jackson, Stephen T

2013-03-01

Long-distance dispersal is an integral part of plant species migration and population development. We aged and genotyped 1125 individuals in four disjunct populations of Pinus ponderosa that were initially established by long-distance dispersal in the 16th and 17th centuries. Parentage analysis was used to determine if individuals were the product of local reproductive events (two parents present), long-distance pollen dispersal (one parent present) or long-distance seed dispersal (no parents present). All individuals established in the first century at each site were the result of long-distance dispersal. Individuals reproduced at younger ages with increasing age of the overall population. These results suggest Allee effects, where populations were initially unable to expand on their own, and were dependent on long-distance dispersal to overcome a minimum-size threshold. Our results demonstrate that long-distance dispersal was not only necessary for initial colonisation but also to sustain subsequent population growth during early phases of expansion. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

In the national interest: the PCSD puts population growth back on the agenda.

PubMed

Dixon, B

1995-01-01

In 1972, President Nixon launched the Rockefeller Commission on Population Growth and the American Future. The US population has grown by more than 50 million people since 1972. In 1995, a report by the President's Council on Sustainable Development (PCSD) states that failure on the part of the US to stabilize its population will jeopardize any effort to achieve sustainable development. As a follow-up to the Earth Summit, President Clinton established the PCSD in 1993 to identify ways to encourage sustainable development in the US. The Council has 25 members representing government, business, and public interest organizations and has 8 critical issues task forces, including Energy, Transportation, Sustainable Community, Education and Outreach, Natural Resources, Eco Efficiency and Sustainable Agriculture. Timothy Wirth, Under Secretary of State for Global Affairs, spearheaded efforts to create a task force on the twin issues of population and consumption. The Population and Consumption Task Force, which began its official discussions in the spring of 1994, aimed to solicit public comment on critical population-related issues. These meetings sought both general public and expert participation on subjects such as teen pregnancy, resource use, and economic indicators. Among these recommendations are improving access to family planning services for all Americans; focusing on special efforts to reduce teen pregnancy and childbearing; improving external factors such as poverty and a lack of economic opportunities for girls and women; and reducing immigration to the US. A combination of actions are needed, including a tax shift from labor and earnings to natural resource use; development of environmentally sound technologies; and public understanding of the importance of sustainable life style and consumption choices. Individual and community action is crucial since the current Congress is unlikely to adopt policies to promote sustainable development without significant public pressure.

Causes, trends, and policy of population migration and the floating population.

PubMed

Cai, F

1996-01-01

This study provides a discussion of migration theory, a description of the main characteristics of migrants and floating population in China, and a migration impact assessment and potential social policy directions. It is argued that the impetus for migration in China was the population distribution pattern and an uneven industrial structure that favored heavy industry. Another factor affecting migration is the gap in income between urban and rural areas, which has widened since reforms in the mid-1980s. The author finds the Todaro or the Harris-Todaro theories inappropriate for understanding migration in developing countries and flawed. Evidence about migrants' characteristics suggest that migration in China was part of a process governed by the laws of economic growth and market development. Legal migrants are defined as those who legally migrated according to the household registration system. China's development strategy during the 1950s relied on growth of capital-intensive heavy industry. The cost was underwritten by adoption of a price system that shifted the price of products in order to lower the cost of heavy industrial development. During 1952-78, agricultural output dropped sharply, but the employment structure changed very little and the rate of urbanization changed slightly. Regional inequality was obvious by 1978. As reform progressed, patterns emerged that favored eastern coastal development. Microlevel reform outdistanced macrolevel reform. Obstacles to migration were reduced: the breakup of the commune system and changes in the urban food supply system and housing. In 1990 there were 34.128 million migrants, of which 32.42% were interprovincial and 42.99% involved job-related shifts. In 1992, 8.1% of urban population were not registered; 94.909 million were floating population. Cities have established policies to match the size of the floating population to the current carrying capacity.

Development of a model forecasting Dermanyssus gallinae's population dynamics for advancing Integrated Pest Management in laying hen facilities.

PubMed

Mul, Monique F; van Riel, Johan W; Roy, Lise; Zoons, Johan; André, Geert; George, David R; Meerburg, Bastiaan G; Dicke, Marcel; van Mourik, Simon; Groot Koerkamp, Peter W G

2017-10-15

The poultry red mite, Dermanyssus gallinae, is the most significant pest of egg laying hens in many parts of the world. Control of D. gallinae could be greatly improved with advanced Integrated Pest Management (IPM) for D. gallinae in laying hen facilities. The development of a model forecasting the pests' population dynamics in laying hen facilities without and post-treatment will contribute to this advanced IPM and could consequently improve implementation of IPM by farmers. The current work describes the development and demonstration of a model which can follow and forecast the population dynamics of D. gallinae in laying hen facilities given the variation of the population growth of D. gallinae within and between flocks. This high variation could partly be explained by house temperature, flock age, treatment, and hen house. The total population growth variation within and between flocks, however, was in part explained by temporal variation. For a substantial part this variation was unexplained. A dynamic adaptive model (DAP) was consequently developed, as models of this type are able to handle such temporal variations. The developed DAP model can forecast the population dynamics of D. gallinae, requiring only current flock population monitoring data, temperature data and information of the dates of any D. gallinae treatment. Importantly, the DAP model forecasted treatment effects, while compensating for location and time specific interactions, handling the variability of these parameters. The characteristics of this DAP model, and its compatibility with different mite monitoring methods, represent progression from existing approaches for forecasting D. gallinae that could contribute to advancing improved Integrated Pest Management (IPM) for D. gallinae in laying hen facilities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Study of Optimum Population Levels—A Progress Report*

PubMed Central

Singer, S. Fred

1972-01-01

The purpose of this study is to explore different approaches and to develop a methodology that will allow a calculation of “optimum levels of population.” The discussion is specialized to the United States, but the methodology should be broad enough to handle other countries, including less-developed countries. The study is based on economics, but with major inputs from the areas of technology, natural resources management, environmental effects, and demography. The general approach will be to develop an index for quality of life (IQL or Q-index) and to maximize this index as a function of level and distribution of population. The technique consists of a reshuffling of national income accounts so as to be able to go from the Gross National Product (GNP) to the index for quality of life, plus a careful discussion of what is and what is not to be included. The initial part of the study consists of a projection of the index for quality of life as population level increases and as population distribution changes, under the assumption of various technologies, particularly as these relate to the consumption of minerals, energy, and other natural resources. One would expect that as economic growth continues, an increasing fraction of expenditures would be for the diseconomics produced by population growth and economic growth. This study should be useful by providing a rational base for governmental policies regarding population, both in the United States and abroad. Another application of the study is to technology assessment, by measurement of the impact on economic well-being through the introduction of new technologies. Therefore, one can gauge the necessary and desirable investments in certain new technologies. In general, mathematical models resulting from this study can become useful diagnostic tools to analyze the consequences of various public and private policy decisions. PMID:4509346

The Demographic Crisis and Global Migration - Selected Issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frątczak, Ewa Zofia

2016-01-01

Currently the world is undergoing a serious demographic shift, characterised by slowing population growth in developed countries. However, the population in certain less-developed regions of the world is still increasing. According to UN data, as of 2015, (World...2015), 244 million people (or 3.3% of the global population) lived outside their country of birth. While most of these migrants travel abroad looking for better economic and social conditions, there are also those forced to move by political crises, revolutions and war. Such migration is being experienced currently in Europe, a continent which is thus going through both a demographic crisis related to the low fertility rate and population ageing, and a migration crisis. Global migrations link up inseparably with demographic transformation processes taking place globally and resulting in the changing tempo of population growth. Attracting and discouraging migration factors are changing at the same time, as is the scale and range of global migration, and with these also the global consequences. The focus of work addressed in this paper is on global population, the demographic transformation and the role of global migrations, as well as the range and scale of international migration, and selected aspects of global migrations including participation in the global labour market, the scale of monetary transfers (remittances) and the place of global migration in the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (Transforming...2015) and the Europe of two crises (Domeny 2016).

An Energy-Economy-Environment Model for Simulating the Impacts of Socioeconomic Development on Energy and Environment

PubMed Central

Yao, Bo

2014-01-01

Many rapidly developing regions have begun to draw the attention of the world. Meanwhile, the energy and environmental issues associated with rapid economic growth have aroused widespread critical concern. Therefore, studying energy, economic, and environmental systems is of great importance. This study establishes a system dynamic model that covers multiple aspects of those systems, such as energy, economy, population, water pollution, air pollution, solid waste, and technology. The model designed here attempts to determine the impacts of socioeconomic development on the energy and environment of Tongzhou District in three scenarios: under current, planning, and sustainable conditions. The results reveal that energy shortages and water pollutions are very serious and are the key issues constraining future social and economic development. Solid waste emissions increase with population growth. The prediction results provide valuable insights into social advancement. PMID:24683332

Future development of animal welfare science and use of new technologies

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The expected human population growth to 9 billion people by 2050 will impact all animals with which we share this planet. We will see more farm animals, greater companion animal ownership, increasing feral populations, increased use of laboratory animals and threatened wildlife species diversity, im...

Some Aspects of Sustainable Development in Kindergartens in Slovenia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vodopivec, Jurka Lepicnik

2011-01-01

Aspects of environmental crisis (industrialization, explosive growth of population and urbanization) have a negative effect on the environment. However, they also impact the mentality of population (for example, urbanization has lead to the decreasing numbers of adults and children having a direct contact with the natural environment).…

Population and Development Issues.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cohen, Sharon; Garran, Christopher

1998-01-01

Describes a unit on demographics for a high school world-history course that addresses questions of uneven population growth and the "problem of global overpopulation." Provides a detailed outline of the two-day unit including unit and daily goals and objectives, daily activities and questions, and ideas for further student research. (DSK)

The stability of colorectal cancer mathematical models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khairudin, Nur Izzati; Abdullah, Farah Aini

2013-04-01

Colorectal cancer is one of the most common types of cancer. To better understand about the kinetics of cancer growth, mathematical models are used to provide insight into the progression of this natural process which enables physicians and oncologists to determine optimal radiation and chemotherapy schedules and develop a prognosis, both of which are indispensable for treating cancer. This thesis investigates the stability of colorectal cancer mathematical models. We found that continuous saturating feedback is the best available model of colorectal cancer growth. We also performed stability analysis. The result shows that cancer progress in sequence of genetic mutations or epigenetic which lead to a very large number of cells population until become unbounded. The cell population growth initiate and its saturating feedback is overcome when mutation changes causing the net per-capita growth rate of stem or transit cells exceed critical threshold.

Our Crowded Shores: Balancing Growth and Resource Protection. [CD-ROM].

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (DOC), Washington, DC. Environmental Data Service.

This interactive educational CD-ROM is designed for the general public and examines the extent of coastal population growth and development and their impact on coastal resources. High schools will find it a useful complement to environmental sciences curricula while science and visitors centers, museums, and aquariums will discover it to be a…

Development of a Dynamic Energy Budget Modeling Approach to Investigate the Effects of Temperature and Resource Limitation on Mercury Bioaccumulation in Fundulus Heteroclitus

EPA Science Inventory

Dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory provides a generalizable and broadly applicable framework to connect sublethal toxic effects on individuals to changes in population persistence and growth. To explore this approach, we are conducting growth and bioaccumulation studies that cont...

Development of a dynamic energy budget modeling approach to investigate the effects of temperature and resource limitation on mercury bioaccumulation in Fundulus heteroclitus-presentation

EPA Science Inventory

Dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory provides a generalizable and broadly applicable framework to connect sublethal toxic effects on individuals to changes in population survival and growth. To explore this approach, we are conducting growth and bioaccumulation studies that contrib...

Quantifying Impacts of Urban Growth Potential on Army Training Capabilities

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-09-12

Capacity” ERDC/CERL TR-17-34 ii Abstract Building on previous studies of urban growth and population effects on U.S. military installations and...combat team studies . CAA has developed an iterative process that builds on Military Value Anal- ysis (MVA) models that include a set of attributes that...Methods and tools were developed to support a nationwide analysis. This study focused on installations operating training areas that were high

Evolution of plant growth and defense in a continental introduction.

PubMed

Agrawal, Anurag A; Hastings, Amy P; Bradburd, Gideon S; Woods, Ellen C; Züst, Tobias; Harvey, Jeffrey A; Bukovinszky, Tibor

2015-07-01

Substantial research has addressed adaptation of nonnative biota to novel environments, yet surprisingly little work has integrated population genetic structure and the mechanisms underlying phenotypic differentiation in ecologically important traits. We report on studies of the common milkweed Asclepias syriaca, which was introduced from North America to Europe over the past 400 years and which lacks most of its specialized herbivores in the introduced range. Using 10 populations from each continent grown in a common environment, we identified several growth and defense traits that have diverged, despite low neutral genetic differentiation between continents. We next developed a Bayesian modeling approach to account for relationships between molecular and phenotypic differences, confirming that continental trait differentiation was greater than expected from neutral genetic differentiation. We found evidence that growth-related traits adaptively diverged within and between continents. Inducible defenses triggered by monarch butterfly herbivory were substantially reduced in European populations, and this reduction in inducibility was concordant with altered phytohormonal dynamics, reduced plant growth, and a trade-off with constitutive investment. Freedom from the community of native and specialized herbivores may have favored constitutive over induced defense. Our replicated analysis of plant growth and defense, including phenotypically plastic traits, suggests adaptive evolution following a continental introduction.

Polymorphisms in the Myostatin-1 gene and their association with growth traits in Ancherythroculter nigrocauda

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Yanhong; Li, Qing; Wang, Guiying; Zhu, Dongmei; Chen, Jian; Li, Pei; Tong, Jingou

2017-05-01

Myostatin ( MSTN) is a member of the transforming growth factor-β gene superfamily that negatively regulates skeletal muscle development and growth. In the present study, partial genomic fragments of Myostatin-1 ( MSTN-1) in two commercial hatchery populations of Ancherythroculter nigrocauda, an economically important freshwater fish, were screened for single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and then genotyped by direct sequencing of PCR products. Five SNPs were identified in intron 1 and exon 2, including a non-synonymous mutation causing an amino acid change (Val to Ile) at position 180. Association analyses based on 300 individuals revealed that the g.1129T>C SNP locus was significantly associated with total length (TL), body length (BL), body height (BH) and body weight (BW) in 6- and 18-month-old populations, while the g.1289G>A locus was significantly associated with BH and BW in the 6-month-old population. Haplotype analyses revealed that fish with the genotype combinations TC/TC or TC/GA showed better growth performance. Our results suggest that g.1129T>C and g.1289G>A have positive effects on growth traits and may be candidate gene markers for marker-assisted selection in A. nigrocauda.

Intraspecific competition and density dependence of food consumption and growth in Arctic charr.

PubMed

Amundsen, Per-Arne; Knudsen, Rune; Klemetsen, Anders

2007-01-01

1. Intraspecific competition for restricted food resources is considered to play a fundamental part in density dependence of somatic growth and other population characteristics, but studies simultaneously addressing the interrelationships between population density, food acquisition and somatic growth have been missing. 2. We explored the food consumption and individual growth rates of Arctic charr Salvelinus alpinus in a long-term survey following a large-scale density manipulation experiment in a subarctic lake. 3. Prior to the initiation of the experiment, the population density was high and the somatic growth rates low, revealing a severely overcrowded and stunted fish population. 4. During the 6-year period of stock depletion the population density of Arctic charr was reduced with about 75%, resulting in an almost twofold increase in food consumption rates and enhanced individual growth rates of the fish. 5. Over the decade following the density manipulation experiment, the population density gradually rose to intermediate levels, accompanied by corresponding reductions in food consumption and somatic growth rates. 6. The study revealed negative relationships with population density for both food consumption and individual growth rates, reflecting a strong positive correlation between quantitative food intake and somatic growth rates. 7. Both the growth and consumption rate relationships with population density were well described by negative power curves, suggesting that large density perturbations are necessary to induce improved feeding conditions and growth rates in stunted fish populations. 8. The findings demonstrate that quantitative food consumption represents the connective link between population density and individual growth rates, apparently being highly influenced by intraspecific competition for limited resources.

World Population: Fundamentals of Growth. Student Chartbook. Third Edition.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kent, Mary Mederios

This booklet is designed for K-12 students and educators to learn about world population growth factors. Data are shown through charts and graphs with brief explanations. The booklet contains: (1) "World Population Growth and Regional Distribution through History"; (2) "Population Growth through Natural Increase"; (3) "Effect of Migration on…

[Growth and development of children in Cuba].

PubMed

Jordán Rodríguez, J; Bebel Agua, A; Rubén, M; Hernández, J

1980-01-01

During the years 1972 to 1974, a great scale study was carried out on development and growth taking at random a stratified sample of multiple stages of 50,311 children from birth to 20 years. Fifteen anthropometric dimensions were considered and evaluation was made of sexual development in both sexes. In girls, the age of menarche was registered. An X-ray of the hand was taken to 10% of the sample. One year later, 30% of the sample was X-rayed again to determine speed of growth. Response of the population was close to 94%. The importance of a national system of growth is recognized, together with the colaboration of the orgaism of masses to achieve these purposes. Information related with some of measurements reported is offered and comments related with these findings are made.

IMF / World Bank boards of governors discuss population, migration.

PubMed

1994-05-01

A brief presentation was given of the statements Dr. Nafis Sadik, Executive Director of the UN Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA) and Secretary General of the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD), made before a meeting of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank on resource flows to developing countries, population, international trade, and migration. The meeting was attended by finance ministers from 24 countries. The IMF Managing Director gave an overview at the meeting of the world economic situation and the need for international assistance for effective population and family planning programs. Dr. Sadik emphasized this need as a requirement for implementation of the 20-year ICPD Programme of Action. The increased investment was considered beneficial because it would increase life expectancy, lower demand for health and education services, reduce pressure in the job market, reduce economic hardship, and increase social stability. The growth of prosperity was considered by Dr. Sadik to be tied to increased demand for housing, energy, and utilities. A slower and more balanced population growth would allow for government services to meet demands and for the world to adjust to increasing numbers of people. Several ministers supported the call for increased funding of population programs and poverty reduction programs. A special communique by ministers recognized that the connections between economic growth, population, poverty reduction, health, investment in human resources, and environmental degradation must be integrated into population policy. Ministers urged the ICPD to emphasize improvements in primary school enrollment in low income countries, in access to family planning and health services, and in maternal and child mortality rates. Ministers wanted to see increases in the proportion of aid directed to population programs above the current 1.25%. Requests were made for more research into the social, political, and economic impact of international migration among both host and origin countries.

Egypt: urban growth encroaches on farmland.

PubMed

1981-12-01

In 1980 Egypt's population was 42 million, with 9 million, or 21%, residing in metropolitan Cairo. Throughout the country the urban population makes up about 44% of the total population; in the 2 largest cities, Cairo and Alexandria, public utilities and basic services are becoming more and more ineffective. The problem is complicated by the fact that the urban population is concentrated along the Nile valley, which is the most fertile, cultivated, and well watered area of the country. An estimated 20,000 acres of farmland are lost each year to urban spread, while the government spends an average $2 million yearly to subsidize food imports. The Egyptian government is not only aiming at reducing natural growth through the provision of free family planning services, but it is encouraging rural development and trying to raise the standard of living for farmers. A strategy to redistribute the population into smaller cities or on land suitable for reclamation is also being planned.

Multicultural Issues in Oral Health

PubMed Central

Garcia, Raul I.; Cadoret, Cindy; Henshaw, Michelle

2008-01-01

Synopsis Demographic changes over the coming decades will heighten the challenges to the dental profession and to the nation. The expected growth in the numbers of racial and ethnic minorities, and the concomitant growth of immigrant populations are likely to lead to worsening of oral health disparities. Their consequences are becoming increasingly evident as the profession strives to improve the oral health of all Americans. The increasing diversity of the population, together with the importance of cultural beliefs and behaviors that affect health outcomes, will require ways to enhance provider-patient communications and oral health literacy. We discuss the nature and challenges presented by multicultural patient populations. One important means by which to promote oral health in diverse populations is to develop a dental workforce that is both culturally and linguistically competent, as well as one that is as culturally diverse as the American population. PMID:18329446

A Development Program for Metropolitan Junior College, Kansas City. Volume Three: The Economy, Population, and Manpower Requirements of the Kansas City Metropolitan Area.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Little (Arthur D.), Inc., San Francisco, CA.

The economy, population, and manpower requirements of the Kansas City metropolitan area are examined in this volume of a report for the planning and development of Metropolitan Junior College (MJC). Part I looks at the Kansas City economy, first from a historical perspective and then in terms of recent trends in economic growth; the comparative…

The use of Ampelisca abdita growth rate as an indicator of sediment quality

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Weston, D.P.; Thompson, B.

1995-12-31

Acute lethal bioassays with amphipod crustaceans are routinely used to assess toxicity of bulk sediments. A study within the San Francisco Bay Regional Monitoring Program (RMP) is in progress to develop a chronic bioassay with the amphipod Ampelisca abdita, measuring both survivorship and growth rates. This approach is attractive because depression of growth rate is likely to be a more sensitive indicator of toxic effects than acute lethality, and natural populations of A. abdita exist throughout the Bay. Spiked sediment bioassays, using cadmium and crude oil, were used to demonstrate the relative sensitivity of the standard 10-day lethal test vs.more » the 30-day growth test. Sediments were also collected from 9 sites throughout the Bay, ranging from areas adjacent to municipal wastewater discharges to areas distant from known point source inputs. These samples were then split, and used for side-by-side comparison of acute (lethal) and chronic (growth) toxicity tests. Survivorship exceeded 90% in all tests, including those sediments collected nearest the wastewater outfalls. Growth rates were contrasted among the various treatments to examine the utility of this end point in discriminating the outfall sites. Data on the spatial distribution, abundance, and size-frequency distribution of native populations was examined within the context of using growth rate as an indicator of toxic effects in natural populations as well.« less

Mankind under threat -- Vatican.

PubMed

Sakala, C

1994-01-01

The United Nations has noted that 250,000 people are added to the global population daily. Urgent steps must be taken to curb such growth and stabilize the size of the global population. Existing population consumes available resources at an unsustainable rate, littering the environment with its waste. Even the global climate is changing as a result of these unsustainable patterns of production and consumption. The 1994 International Conference on Population and Development scheduled to be held in Cairo, September 5-13, will bring together delegates from countries around the world to discuss these issues and develop a plan to curb population growth and save the environment. Unlike the rest of the world, the Pope and the Vatican fail to see reason. Despite the pragmatic call to increase the practice of modern family planning, especially in developing countries, the Church has actually intensified its campaign against the conference and its objectives. The Pope argues that the conference will accelerate moral decline and charged that respect for the rights of the unborn and the importance of the family are contradicted by its proposals. He is especially up in arms over the UN proposition that women should be able to control their fertility through contraception and safe abortion. Approving only of natural family planning, the Pope believes that achieving world population goals by using contraception threatens mankind. Population experts, however, are urging the Vatican to face reality and help especially those women who feel their living conditions do not allow the practice of natural family planning.

Estimating the effects of 17α-ethinylestradiol on stochastic population growth rate of fathead minnows: a population synthesis of empirically derived vital rates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schwindt, Adam R.; Winkelman, Dana L.

2016-01-01

Urban freshwater streams in arid climates are wastewater effluent dominated ecosystems particularly impacted by bioactive chemicals including steroid estrogens that disrupt vertebrate reproduction. However, more understanding of the population and ecological consequences of exposure to wastewater effluent is needed. We used empirically derived vital rate estimates from a mesocosm study to develop a stochastic stage-structured population model and evaluated the effect of 17α-ethinylestradiol (EE2), the estrogen in human contraceptive pills, on fathead minnow Pimephales promelas stochastic population growth rate. Tested EE2 concentrations ranged from 3.2 to 10.9 ng L−1 and produced stochastic population growth rates (λ S ) below 1 at the lowest concentration, indicating potential for population decline. Declines in λ S compared to controls were evident in treatments that were lethal to adult males despite statistically insignificant effects on egg production and juvenile recruitment. In fact, results indicated that λ S was most sensitive to the survival of juveniles and female egg production. More broadly, our results document that population model results may differ even when empirically derived estimates of vital rates are similar among experimental treatments, and demonstrate how population models integrate and project the effects of stressors throughout the life cycle. Thus, stochastic population models can more effectively evaluate the ecological consequences of experimentally derived vital rates.

Uncertainty: A little bit not sure. Parental concern about child growth or development.

PubMed

Mulcahy, Helen; Savage, Eileen

2016-09-01

Delays in child growth or development are significant problems for children, their families and population health. Eliciting parental concerns as early as possible to promote child growth and development requires close collaborative working with parents. There is evidence that parents delay expressing concern and that health-care professionals are not always effective at eliciting and attending to parental concerns. The aim of this study was to understand the experiences of parents of preschool children who had expressed a child growth or development concern. An Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis (IPA) study design was used with a purposive sample of parents of 15 preschool children in Ireland. Data were collected by semi-structured interviews and analysed using IPA. One key superordinate theme - Uncertainty - 'a little bit not sure' captured how parents made sense of their concerns about their child's growth and development. In addition to watching, comparing and wondering, parents assessed whether their child could 'do other things' or if something in particular could have caused the growth or development problem. Parents, particularly mothers, grapple with uncertainty associated with unfamiliar cues in the complex and multifaceted nature of child growth and development in their efforts to make sense of what is happening with their child. © The Author(s) 2015.

The shape of things to come.

PubMed

Gallagher, C F

1979-01-01

Basic projections for the future made by various international and national planning organizations form the basis for a report on the demographic, economic, and social implications of population growth for the year 2000, both as to the statistics involved and what they mean. The most signficiant factor is that by the end of the century, global population will be greater than 6 billion. Statistics on population patterns are presented for Asia; India; China; Africa; Latin America; North America; Europe, Oceania, and the USSR, including population growth; birthrate; mortality; population projections; population distribution; age of populations; and urbanization. The realities that stand behind these abstract and impersonal statistics of population change will pose significant problems in several major respects: how these increasing populations will support themselves; where they will live; and how they will be fed. These question are closely related, but the need to create jobs might come 1st since decisions about the kind of employment opportunities to be offered and where will directly affect the rural-urban population equation. It is clear that an enormous number of jobs must be found in developing countries by the end of the century, estimated at 500 million more. The economic implications of increasing urbanization in the developing world are explored, and it is noted that Asia, Latin America, and Africa now face the prospect of having to feed as many as 800 million more urbanites by the year 2000. Also, rural population will also continue to grow, and whether agricultural resources can be increased to what extent and how is a critical question. It is concluded that no matter how agriculture is improved or jobs found in developing countries, many will be poorly nourished, badly housed, and inadequately educated. It is finally suggested that by 2000 the Third World as such will no longer exist; instead the world will consist of older developed countries; rapidly developing countries; middle-income countries; oil-surplus countries; and still poor countries, with a movement toward a constantly more diversified echelon of socioeconomic levels of development, both among and within countries.

[The decline in the population growth rate--a priority issue in international politics].

PubMed

Rhein, E

1994-08-25

The Third International UN Conference on Population and Development took place in Cairo in early September 1994 with the participation of 200 governments and 1000 nongovernmental organizations to discuss ways of stabilizing world population at the possible lowest level and how industrialized countries could contribute to this effort. As a consequence of the advances in reproductive medicine the use of contraceptives skyrocketed: in 1994 more than half of men and women were using contraception compared to only 5% in 1950. However, the demographic momentum would still increase world population for another 100 years, even if fertility would drop to 2.2 children per couple (compared to 4 children in 1990). Nevertheless, the present generation could be instrumental in deciding whether the world's population will remain around 8 billion or reach 12 billion between 2050 and 2150. Poor countries can no longer afford an annual growth rate of 2-4% while also trying to improve living standards; this would require an economic growth rate of 6-8%. For the control of population growth both a sustainable environmental policy in the North, with rapid transition to renewable energy and recycling, and a more effective population policy in the South are needed. Family planning (FP) is the precondition of stabilization. The global FP outlays are envisioned to double from the 1994 figure of $5 billion to over $10 billion in the year 2000, with donor contributions to increase from 20% to 40% of the total. The US contribution is to double from $500 million by 2000, while the European Commission decided to boost expenditures for FP from DM 30 million in 1994 to DM 600 million by 2000. Japan is also expending $3 billion during this period. Recent promising developments have emerged: national pronatalist policies have diminished sharply and the pronatalist influence of religions has also declined. Political commitment at the highest level is central to a successful population policy as demonstrated in Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Egypt, whereas its lack resulted in failures in Pakistan, Turkey, and Algeria.

Model structure of the stream salmonid simulator (S3)—A dynamic model for simulating growth, movement, and survival of juvenile salmonids

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, Russell W.; Plumb, John M.; Jones, Edward C.; Som, Nicholas A.; Hetrick, Nicholas J.; Hardy, Thomas B.

2018-04-06

Fisheries and water managers often use population models to aid in understanding the effect of alternative water management or restoration actions on anadromous fish populations. We developed the Stream Salmonid Simulator (S3) to help resource managers evaluate the effect of management alternatives on juvenile salmonid populations. S3 is a deterministic stage-structured population model that tracks daily growth, movement, and survival of juvenile salmon. A key theme of the model is that river flow affects habitat availability and capacity, which in turn drives density dependent population dynamics. To explicitly link population dynamics to habitat quality and quantity, the river environment is constructed as a one-dimensional series of linked habitat units, each of which has an associated daily time series of discharge, water temperature, and usable habitat area or carrying capacity. The physical characteristics of each habitat unit and the number of fish occupying each unit, in turn, drive survival and growth within each habitat unit and movement of fish among habitat units.The purpose of this report is to outline the underlying general structure of the S3 model that is common among different applications of the model. We have developed applications of the S3 model for juvenile fall Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in the lower Klamath River. Thus, this report is a companion to current application of the S3 model to the Trinity River (in review). The general S3 model structure provides a biological and physical framework for the salmonid freshwater life cycle. This framework captures important demographics of juvenile salmonids aimed at translating management alternatives into simulated population responses. Although the S3 model is built on this common framework, the model has been constructed to allow much flexibility in application of the model to specific river systems. The ability for practitioners to include system-specific information for the physical stream structure, survival, growth, and movement processes ensures that simulations provide results that are relevant to the questions asked about the population under study.

Emergent multicellular life cycles in filamentous bacteria owing to density-dependent population dynamics.

PubMed

Rossetti, Valentina; Filippini, Manuela; Svercel, Miroslav; Barbour, A D; Bagheri, Homayoun C

2011-12-07

Filamentous bacteria are the oldest and simplest known multicellular life forms. By using computer simulations and experiments that address cell division in a filamentous context, we investigate some of the ecological factors that can lead to the emergence of a multicellular life cycle in filamentous life forms. The model predicts that if cell division and death rates are dependent on the density of cells in a population, a predictable cycle between short and long filament lengths is produced. During exponential growth, there will be a predominance of multicellular filaments, while at carrying capacity, the population converges to a predominance of short filaments and single cells. Model predictions are experimentally tested and confirmed in cultures of heterotrophic and phototrophic bacterial species. Furthermore, by developing a formulation of generation time in bacterial populations, it is shown that changes in generation time can alter length distributions. The theory predicts that given the same population growth curve and fitness, species with longer generation times have longer filaments during comparable population growth phases. Characterization of the environmental dependence of morphological properties such as length, and the number of cells per filament, helps in understanding the pre-existing conditions for the evolution of developmental cycles in simple multicellular organisms. Moreover, the theoretical prediction that strains with the same fitness can exhibit different lengths at comparable growth phases has important implications. It demonstrates that differences in fitness attributed to morphology are not the sole explanation for the evolution of life cycles dominated by multicellularity.

Why sustainable population growth is a key to climate change and public health equity.

PubMed

Howat, Peter; Stoneham, Melissa

2011-12-01

Australia's population could reach 42 million by 2050. This rapid population growth, if unabated, will have significant social, public health and environmental implications. On the one hand, it is a major driver of climate change and environmental degradation; on the other it is likely to be a major contributor to growing social and health issues including a decline in quality of life for many residents. Disadvantaged and vulnerable groups will be most affected. The environmental, social and health-related issues include: pressure on the limited arable land in Australia; increased volumes of industrial and domestic waste; inadequate essential services; traffic congestion; lack of affordable housing; declining mental health; increased obesity problems; and inadequate aged care services. Many of these factors are related to the aggravation of climate change and health inequities. It is critical that the Australian Government develops a sustainable population plan with stabilisation of population growth as an option. The plan needs to ensure adequate hospitals and healthcare services, education facilities, road infrastructure, sustainable transport options, water quality and quantity, utilities and other amenities that are already severely overburdened in Australian cities. There is a need for a guarantee that affordable housing will be available and priority be given to training young people and Indigenous people for employment. This paper presents evidence to support the need for the stabilisation of population growth as one of the most significant measures to control climate change as well as to improve public health equity.

Health impact assessment in Mongolia: current situation, directions, and challenges.

PubMed

Spickett, Jeff; Batmunkh, Tsetsegsaikhan; Jones, Sarah

2015-03-01

Many developing countries have limited capacity to adequately assess and manage health impacts associated with environmental change. In Mongolia, methodologies to introduce health impact assessment (HIA) as part of the environmental impact assessment (EIA) process have been investigated, and a mechanism to incorporate HIA into the current EIA process is proposed. Some challenges to the implementation of HIA are discussed. The country is now in a position to incorporate HIA as part of the approvals process for development projects. Given the recent growth in population, industrial development, and urbanization together with the interest from international mining companies in the resources of the country, it is important for Mongolia to have such tools in place in order to take advantage of economic growth while improving health and well-being outcomes for the population. © 2012 APJPH.

The Increase of Energy Consumption and Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emission in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sasana, Hadi; Putri, Annisa Eka

2018-02-01

In the last decade, the increase of energy consumption that has multiplied carbondioxide emissions becomes world problems, especially in the developing countries undergoing industrialization to be developed ones like Indonesia. This aim of this study was to analyze the effect of fossil energy consumption, population growth, and consumption of renewable energy on carbon dioxide emission. The method used was multiple linear regression analysis with Ordinary Least Square approach using time series in the period of 1990 - 2014. The result showed that fossil energy consumption and population growth have a positive influence on carbon dioxide emission in Indonesia. Meanwhile, the consumption variable of renewable energy has a negative effect on the level of carbon dioxide emissions produced.

[Effects of red tide microalgae Alexandrium tamarense on the life history of rotifer Brachionus plicatilis].

PubMed

Xie, Zhi-Hao; Xiao, Huh; Cai, Heng-Jiang; Wang, Ren-Jun; Tang, Xue-Xi

2007-12-01

In this paper, life-table method was used to study the effects of different concentration Alexandrium tamarense on the durations of different development stages of Brachionus plicatilis and the characters of its population growth. The results showed that A. tamarense had significant effects on the growth and development of B. plicatilis via prolonging the durations of the rotifer' s pre-reproduction and generation succession, shortening the durations of its reproduction and post-reproduction and its mean lifespan, and reducing its laying eggs and fecundity. The net reproduction rate and intrinsic increasing rate of B. plicatilis decreased significantly, in comparison with those of the control. B. plicatilis could maintain definite population increase at the presence of different concentration A. tamarense.

Neonicotinoid pesticide reduces bumble bee colony growth and queen production.

PubMed

Whitehorn, Penelope R; O'Connor, Stephanie; Wackers, Felix L; Goulson, Dave

2012-04-20

Growing evidence for declines in bee populations has caused great concern because of the valuable ecosystem services they provide. Neonicotinoid insecticides have been implicated in these declines because they occur at trace levels in the nectar and pollen of crop plants. We exposed colonies of the bumble bee Bombus terrestris in the laboratory to field-realistic levels of the neonicotinoid imidacloprid, then allowed them to develop naturally under field conditions. Treated colonies had a significantly reduced growth rate and suffered an 85% reduction in production of new queens compared with control colonies. Given the scale of use of neonicotinoids, we suggest that they may be having a considerable negative impact on wild bumble bee populations across the developed world.

Population Genetics of Three Dimensional Range Expansions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lavrentovich, Maxim; Nelson, David

2014-03-01

We develop a simple model of genetic diversity in growing spherical cell clusters, where the growth is confined to the cluster surface. This kind of growth occurs in cells growing in soft agar, and can also serve as a simple model of avascular tumors. Mutation-selection balance in these radial expansions is strongly influenced by scaling near a neutral, voter model critical point and by the inflating frontier. We develop a scaling theory to describe how the dynamics of mutation-selection balance is cut off by inflation. Genetic drift, i.e., local fluctuations in the genetic diversity, also plays an important role, and can lead to the extinction even of selectively advantageous strains. We calculate this extinction probability, taking into account the effect of rough population frontiers.

Impacts of population growth and economic development on water quality of a lake: case study of Lake Victoria Kenya water.

PubMed

Juma, Dauglas Wafula; Wang, Hongtao; Li, Fengting

2014-04-01

Anthropogenic-induced water quality pollution is a major environmental problem in freshwater ecosystems today. As a result of this, eutrophication of lakes occurs. Population and economic development are key drivers of water resource pollution. To evaluate how growth in the riparian population and in the gross domestic product (GDP) with unplanned development affects the water quality of the lake, this paper evaluates Lake Victoria Kenyan waters basin. Waters quality data between 1990 and 2012 were analyzed along with reviews of published literature, papers, and reports. The nitrate-nitrogen (NO3-N), soluble phosphorus (PO4-P), chlorophyll a, and Secchi transparencies were evaluated as they are key water quality indicators. The NO3-N increased from 10 μg l(-1) in 1990 to 98 μg 1(-1) in 2008, while PO4-P increased from 4 μg l(-1) in 1990 to 57 μg l(-1) in 2008. The population and economic growth of Kenya are increasing with both having minimums in 1990 of 24.143 million people and 12.18 billion US dollars, to maximums in 2010 of 39.742 million people and 32.163 billion US dollars, respectively. A Secchi transparency is reducing with time, indicating an increasing pollution. This was confirmed by an increase in aquatic vegetation using an analysis of moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) images of 2000 and 2012 of Kenyan waters. This study found that increasing population and GDP increases pollution discharge thus polluting lakes. One of major factors causing lake water pollution is the unplanned or poor waste management policy and service.

Supporting development of rural settlements as a means for controlling the growth of large cities: three case studies in Colombia.

PubMed

Noriega, M

1994-01-01

A hypothesis is advanced that forceful support to small rural settlements can fundamentally redefine regional development and alleviate acute problems facing cities. Colombia is divided into 32 territorial units (departments), 1056 municipalities, which are agglomerations of four or five villages. The three projects were carried out under one contract during early 1993 for the department of Valle de Cauca, a prosperous area located in the Pacific southwest. A master plan for urban development was designed for each of the three villages. The population of the village of Villagorgona was 13,399, which was to exceed 18,000 in less than 5 years. Community development priorities were centered on converting an irrigation canal into the axis of a linear park, building a civic center, and creating a road system. The village of El Placer had a population of 8349 and its priorities included the construction of an upgraded aqueduct and a civic center, the improvement of roadways, the rehabilitation of the river and integrating it into the fabric of the settlement, and the creation of an urban code for local authorities to control growth and development. The village of Amaime had a population of 3730 in 1992. The development plan called for integration with the aqueduct being planned in El Placer, creation of a civic center, construction of a sewage treatment plant, rehabilitation of existing river banks, development of a recreational center, and creation of an urban code. These case studies demonstrated that the villages had higher population growth than the capital city of Cali, the inhabitants preferred to remain in the villages because of their satisfaction with the quality of life, the communities were interested in creating neighborhood organizations for improving the environment, the villages served as service centers for outlying farm inhabitants, and manifest interest was identified in changing from the village status to municipal status.

Mapping and analyzing urban growth in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adhikari, P.; de Beurs, K. M.

2014-12-01

Africa has experienced the highest urban growth (~3.5% per year) in the developing world. West Africa in particular has seen significant urban growth mainly driven by the high natural population growth rate and the increasing percentage of population moving to urban areas. Urban growth in West Africa is expected to continue in decades to come. This study uses Landsat data at five different time steps (1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2010) to map four cities from four different eco-regions of West Africa since the early 1970s. The selected four cities, Kumasi in Ghana, Abuja in Nigeria, Tahoua in Niger and Ouagadoughou in Burkina Faso, are some of the fastest growing cities in the region. We selected the cities in the following ecoregions: Eastern Guinean Forest, Guinean Forest-Savanna Mosaic, Sahelian Acacia Savanna and West Sudanian Savanna. We hypothesize that urban growth in West Africa is different compared to the other parts of the world primarily due to the dependency of about 60 percent of active labor force on subsistence agriculture in the region. As agriculture productivity is dependent on favorable climatic conditions (i.e., good rainfall, suitable temperature), any variability in climate impends the livelihood of subsistence farmers triggering the movements of more people towards the cities. Therefore, studying urban growth based on ecoregions help to better explain the urban development in West Africa. After mapping the urban areas, this study makes a comparative analysis of the temporal and spatial pattern of the urban growths across the ecoregions in West Africa.

The decisive decade. What we can do about population.

PubMed

Hinrichsen, D

1990-01-01

In a speech given by former West German Chancellor Willy Brandt to the International Forum on Population in the 21st Century, the suggested mandate for international and regional organizations was to create the equivalent of a security council on global environment and population concerns. Nafis Sadik, Executive Director of the US Population Fund, stated that the present decisions will affect the future of humanity and life on Earth. Effective decision-making in the next 10 years in crucial. There must be integrated planning on a national and international level. A global population increase of 250,000 persons/day or 90 million/year adds to the sharing of the earth and its resources. 75% of Latin America, 42% of Africa, and 37% of Asia will become urbanized. Urban air pollution in developing countries is very high. Expectations of growth, even with fertility decline, are another 3 billion by 2025 and 14 billion by 2100. Growth is occurring in countries where governments are unable to deal with the resource and environmental consequences. Growth rates are uneven, with developed countries increasing 5.2% while developing countries increase 25%. The global underclass of poverty is expected to reach 1 billion by 2000. Environmental destruction occurs due to 1) the bottom billion poorest people overexploiting the environment for food and a livelihood and 2) the top billion richest people indirectly causing distraction through consumer preferences. 15 million acres of prime agricultural land are lost every year. Decertification threatens 33% of the land surface. 25 million acres/year of rain forest are being destroyed. Several million species will be extinct. The highest growth rates are in Africa and the Middle East, where children (6-8/woman) are seen as assets, not liabilities. Lack of access to family planning (FP) and health services is a critical issue for women with unmet needs and a desire for fewer children. FP will be brought to the attention of policymakers and national planners at international meetings. Ambitious goals to keep population at 6.2 billion in 2000 and 10.5 billion by 2100 are to increase contraception users to 535 million from 326 million, to increase spending to 9 billion US dollars from 3.5 billion, to improve the status of women, to guarantee the right to decide freely and responsibly the number and spacing of children, to increase national population programs, to promote community participation and youth involvement, to ensure the UN development strategy and the 1992 Conference on the Environment and the 1994 UN Population Meeting includes the results of this meeting, and to adopt integrated population, environment, and natural resource management policies.

Theoretical and Experimental Study of Bacterial Colony Growth in 3D

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, Xinxian; Mugler, Andrew; Nemenman, Ilya

2014-03-01

Bacterial cells growing in liquid culture have been well studied and modeled. However, in nature, bacteria often grow as biofilms or colonies in physically structured habitats. A comprehensive model for population growth in such conditions has not yet been developed. Based on the well-established theory for bacterial growth in liquid culture, we develop a model for colony growth in 3D in which a homogeneous colony of cells locally consume a diffusing nutrient. We predict that colony growth is initially exponential, as in liquid culture, but quickly slows to sub-exponential after nutrient is locally depleted. This prediction is consistent with our experiments performed with E. coli in soft agar. Our model provides a baseline to which studies of complex growth process, such as such as spatially and phenotypically heterogeneous colonies, must be compared.

Growth in pediatric renal transplant recipients.

PubMed

Vasudevan, A; Phadke, K

2007-04-01

One of the fundamental challenges in managing pediatric renal transplant recipient is to ensure normal growth and development. The goal of renal transplant is not just to prolong life but to optimize quality of life. Short stature during childhood may be associated with academic underachievement and development of comorbidities such as attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, learning disability, and mood disorders. The most important factors affecting growth are use of corticosteroids, allograft function, and age and height deficit at the time of transplant. Aggressive conservative management of chronic renal failure and early use of growth hormone therapy will help in optimizing height at time of transplant. Early transplant, steroid minimization or withdrawal, and growth hormone therapy will help in achieving normal adult height in a majority of renal post transplant population. Steroid avoidance to achieve good growth still needs to be validated.

Long-term urban carbon dioxide observations reveal spatial and temporal dynamics related to urban characteristics and growth

DOE PAGES

Mitchell, Logan E.; Lin, John C.; Bowling, David R.; ...

2018-03-05

Cities are concentrated areas of CO 2 emissions and have become the foci of policies for mitigation actions. However, atmospheric measurement networks suitable for evaluating urban emissions over time are scarce. Here we present a unique long-term (decadal) record of CO 2 mole fractions from five sites across Utah’s metropolitan Salt Lake Valley. We examine “excess” CO 2 above background conditions resulting from local emissions and meteorological conditions. We ascribe CO 2 trends to changes in emissions, since we did not find longterm trends in atmospheric mixing proxies. Three contrasting CO 2 trends emerged across urban types: negative trends atmore » a residentialindustrial site, positive trends at a site surrounded by rapid suburban growth, and relatively constant CO 2 over time at multiple sites in the established, residential, and commercial urban core. Analysis of populationwithin the atmospheric footprints of the different sites reveals approximately equal increases in population influencing the observed CO 2, implying a nonlinear relationshipwith CO 2 emissions: Population growth in rural areas that experienced suburban development was associated with increasing emissions while population growth in the developed urban core was associated with stable emissions. Four state-of-the-art global-scale emission inventories also have a nonlinear relationship with population density across the city; however, in contrast to our observations, they all have nearly constant emissions over time. Our results indicate that decadal scale changes in urban CO 2 emissions are detectable through monitoring networks and constitute a valuable approach to evaluate emission inventories and studies of urban carbon cycles.« less

Anthropometric growth study of the ear in a Chinese population.

PubMed

Zhao, Shichun; Li, Dianguo; Liu, Zhenzhong; Wang, Yibiao; Liu, Lei; Jiang, Duyin; Pan, Bo

2018-04-01

A large number of anthropometric studies of the auricle have been reported in different nations, but little data were available in the Chinese population. The aim of this study was to analyze growth changes in the ear by measuring the width and length of ears in a Chinese population. A total of 480 participants were enrolled and classified into 1-, 3-, 5-, 7-, 9-, 12-, 14-, and 18-year groups (half were boys and half were girls in each group). Ear length, ear width, body weight, and body length were measured and recorded; ear index was calculated according to ear length and ear width. The growth of auricle and differences between genders were analyzed. Growth of ear in relation to body height and weight and the degree of emphasis on the length and width of the auricle were also analyzed. Ear length and width increased with age. Ear length achieved its mature size in both 14-year-old males and females. Ear width reached its mature size in males at 7 years and in females at 5 years. Different trends of ear index were shown between males and females. People in this population paid more attention to the length than the width of the auricle. The data indicated that ear development followed increase in age. There were gender and ethnic difference in the development of ear. These results may have potential implications for the diagnosis of congenital malformations, syndromes, and planning of ear reconstruction surgery. Copyright © 2017 British Association of Plastic, Reconstructive and Aesthetic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-term urban carbon dioxide observations reveal spatial and temporal dynamics related to urban characteristics and growth

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mitchell, Logan E.; Lin, John C.; Bowling, David R.

Cities are concentrated areas of CO 2 emissions and have become the foci of policies for mitigation actions. However, atmospheric measurement networks suitable for evaluating urban emissions over time are scarce. Here we present a unique long-term (decadal) record of CO 2 mole fractions from five sites across Utah’s metropolitan Salt Lake Valley. We examine “excess” CO 2 above background conditions resulting from local emissions and meteorological conditions. We ascribe CO 2 trends to changes in emissions, since we did not find longterm trends in atmospheric mixing proxies. Three contrasting CO 2 trends emerged across urban types: negative trends atmore » a residentialindustrial site, positive trends at a site surrounded by rapid suburban growth, and relatively constant CO 2 over time at multiple sites in the established, residential, and commercial urban core. Analysis of populationwithin the atmospheric footprints of the different sites reveals approximately equal increases in population influencing the observed CO 2, implying a nonlinear relationshipwith CO 2 emissions: Population growth in rural areas that experienced suburban development was associated with increasing emissions while population growth in the developed urban core was associated with stable emissions. Four state-of-the-art global-scale emission inventories also have a nonlinear relationship with population density across the city; however, in contrast to our observations, they all have nearly constant emissions over time. Our results indicate that decadal scale changes in urban CO 2 emissions are detectable through monitoring networks and constitute a valuable approach to evaluate emission inventories and studies of urban carbon cycles.« less

Population differences in host use by a seed-beetle: local adaptation, phenotypic plasticity and maternal effects.

PubMed

Amarillo-Suárez, Angela R; Fox, Charles W

2006-11-01

For insects that develop inside discrete hosts, both host size and host quality constrain offspring growth, influencing the evolution of body size and life history traits. Using a two-generation common garden experiment, we quantified the contribution of maternal and rearing hosts to differences in growth and life history traits between populations of the seed-feeding beetle Stator limbatus that use a large-seeded host, Acacia greggii, and a small-seeded host, Pseudosamanea guachapele. Populations differed genetically for all traits when beetles were raised in a common garden. Contrary to expectations from the local adaptation hypothesis, beetles from all populations were larger, developed faster and had higher survivorship when reared on seeds of A. greggii (the larger host), irrespective of their native host. We observed two host plant-mediated maternal effects: offspring matured sooner, regardless of their rearing host, when their mothers were reared on P. guachapele (this was not caused by an effect of rearing host on egg size), and females laid larger eggs on P. guachapele. This is the first study to document plasticity by S. limbatus in response to P. guachapele, suggesting that plasticity is an ancestral trait in S. limbatus that likely plays an important role in diet expansion. Although differences between populations in growth and life history traits are likely adaptations to their host plants, host-associated maternal effects, partly mediated by maternal egg size plasticity, influence growth and life history traits and likely play an important role in the evolution of the breadth of S. limbatus' diet. More generally, phenotypic plasticity mediates the fitness consequences of using novel hosts, likely facilitating colonization of new hosts, but also buffering herbivores from selection post-colonization. Plasticity in response to novel versus normal hosts varied among our study populations such that disentangling the historical role of plasticity in mediating diet evolution requires the consideration of evolutionary history.

Four decades urban growth and land use change in Samara Russia through remote sensing and GIS techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boori, Mukesh Singh; Choudhary, Komal; Kupriyanov, Alexander; Kovelskiy, Viktor

2015-12-01

This study illustrates the spatio-temporal dynamics of urban growth and land use changes in Samara city, Russia from 1975 to 2015. Landsat satellite imageries of five different time periods from 1975 to 2015 were acquired and quantify the changes with the help of ArcGIS 10.1 Software. By applying classification methods to the satellite images four main types of land use were extracted: water, built-up, forest and grassland. Then, the area coverage for all the land use types at different points in time were measured and coupled with population data. The results demonstrate that, over the entire study period, population was increased from 1146 thousand people to 1244 thousand from 1975 to 1990 but later on first reduce and then increase again, now 1173 thousand population. Built-up area is also change according to population. The present study revealed an increase in built-up by 37.01% from 1975 to 1995, than reduce -88.83% till 2005 and an increase by 39.16% from 2005 to 2015, along with the increase in population, migration from rural areas owing to the economic growth and technological advantages associated with urbanization. Information on urban growth, land use and land cover change study is very useful to local government and urban planners for the betterment of future plans to sustainable development of the city.

Linking vital rates to invasiveness of a perennial herb.

PubMed

Ramula, Satu

2014-04-01

Invaders generally show better individual performance than non-invaders and, therefore, vital rates (survival, growth, fecundity) could potentially be used to predict species invasiveness outside their native range. Comparative studies have usually correlated vital rates with the invasiveness status of species, while few studies have investigated them in relation to population growth rate. Here, I examined the influence of five vital rates (plant establishment, survival, growth, flowering probability, seed production) and their variability (across geographic regions, habitat types, population sizes and population densities) on population growth rate (λ) using data from 37 populations of an invasive, iteroparous herb (Lupinus polyphyllus) in a part of its invaded range in Finland. Variation in vital rates was often related to habitat type and population density. The performance of the populations varied from declining to rapidly increasing independently of habitat type, population size or population density, but differed between regions. The population growth rate increased linearly with plant establishment, and with the survival and growth of vegetative individuals, while the survival of flowering individuals and annual seed production were not related to λ. The vital rates responsible for rapid population growth varied among populations. These findings highlight the importance of both regional and local conditions to plant population dynamics, demonstrating that individual vital rates do not necessarily correlate with λ. Therefore, to understand the role of individual vital rates in a species ability to invade, it is necessary to quantify their effect on population growth rate.