Part 1: Pressure ulcer assessment - the development of Critical Care Pressure Ulcer Assessment Tool made Easy (CALCULATE).

PubMed

Richardson, Annette; Barrow, Isabel

2015-11-01

Critically ill patients are at high risk of developing pressure ulcers resulting in serious untoward patient and health care system outcomes. Pressure ulcer prevention is therefore an important patient safety priority and establishing a structured approach to pressure ulcer risk assessment to identify patients at risk is a critical first step. The literature was searched using three electronic databases from 2000 to 2011 to identify papers reporting on pressure ulcer risk factors and assessment in adult critical care. The review and appraisal of papers were conducted by two critical care nurses. Papers underwent detailed review if they met inclusion criteria where they identified pressure ulcer assessment scores, scales or risk factors and related to adult critical care patients Seven papers were reviewed. No single assessment tool was sufficiently validated for critically ill patients and seven key critical care risk factors were identified. These risk factors were: mechanical ventilation, impaired circulation, dialysis, long surgery, low protein and too unstable to turn. The tool Critical Care Pressure Ulcer Assessment Tool made Easy (CALCULATE) was developed utilizing the risk factors from the literature and expert critical care nursing consensus decision-making. In the absence of current consensus, valid assessment scales and limited evidence for the most appropriate pressure ulcer assessment for critically ill patients, this assessment tool offers an easy, appropriate alternative for critically ill patients than existing tools primarily validated for acute care wards. 'CALCULATE' offers an important contribution towards the advancement and development of critical care pressure ulcer risk assessment. Future research is needed to further enhance and inform pressure ulcer risk assessment of the critically ill patients. The identification of critical care risk factors may be an indicative method of assessing pressure ulcer risk in the critically ill patients. © 2015 British Association of Critical Care Nurses.

Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world-The Roskilde recommendations.

PubMed

Selck, Henriette; Adamsen, Peter B; Backhaus, Thomas; Banta, Gary T; Bruce, Peter K H; Burton, G Allen; Butts, Michael B; Boegh, Eva; Clague, John J; Dinh, Khuong V; Doorn, Neelke; Gunnarsson, Jonas S; Hauggaard-Nielsen, Henrik; Hazlerigg, Charles; Hunka, Agnieszka D; Jensen, John; Lin, Yan; Loureiro, Susana; Miraglia, Simona; Munns, Wayne R; Nadim, Farrokh; Palmqvist, Annemette; Rämö, Robert A; Seaby, Lauren P; Syberg, Kristian; Tangaa, Stine R; Thit, Amalie; Windfeld, Ronja; Zalewski, Maciej; Chapman, Peter M

2017-01-01

Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk-Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological context for assessments in human-modified systems; 8) assess risks and benefits to humans and the ecosystem and consider unintended consequences of management actions; 9) avoid excessive conservatism or possible underprotection resulting from sole reliance on binary, numerical benchmarks; and 10) develop adaptive risk-management and regulatory goals based on ranges of uncertainty. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:7-16. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

Review and comparison between the Wells-Riley and dose-response approaches to risk assessment of infectious respiratory diseases.

PubMed

Sze To, G N; Chao, C Y H

2010-02-01

Infection risk assessment is very useful in understanding the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases and in predicting the risk of these diseases to the public. Quantitative infection risk assessment can provide quantitative analysis of disease transmission and the effectiveness of infection control measures. The Wells-Riley model has been extensively used for quantitative infection risk assessment of respiratory infectious diseases in indoor premises. Some newer studies have also proposed the use of dose-response models for such purpose. This study reviews and compares these two approaches to infection risk assessment of respiratory infectious diseases. The Wells-Riley model allows quick assessment and does not require interspecies extrapolation of infectivity. Dose-response models can consider other disease transmission routes in addition to airborne route and can calculate the infectious source strength of an outbreak in terms of the quantity of the pathogen rather than a hypothetical unit. Spatial distribution of airborne pathogens is one of the most important factors in infection risk assessment of respiratory disease. Respiratory deposition of aerosol induces heterogeneous infectivity of intake pathogens and randomness on the intake dose, which are not being well accounted for in current risk models. Some suggestions for further development of the risk assessment models are proposed. This review article summarizes the strengths and limitations of the Wells-Riley and the dose-response models for risk assessment of respiratory diseases. Even with many efforts by various investigators to develop and modify the risk assessment models, some limitations still persist. This review serves as a reference for further development of infection risk assessment models of respiratory diseases. The Wells-Riley model and dose-response model offer specific advantages. Risk assessors can select the approach that is suitable to their particular conditions to perform risk assessment.

National-scale Assessment of Air Toxics Risks

EPA Science Inventory

The national-scale assessment of air toxics risks is a modeling assessment which combines emission inventory development, atmospheric fate and transport modeling, exposure modeling, and risk assessment to characterize the risk associated with inhaling air toxics from outdoor sour...

SURVEY OF METHODOLOGIES FOR DEVELOPING MEDIA SCREENING VALUES FOR ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Barron, Mace G. and Steve Wharton. Submitted. Survey of Methodologies for Developing Media Screening Values for Ecological Risk Assessment. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 44 p. (ERL,GB 1200).

Concurrent with the increase in the number of ecological risk assessments over the past...

Summary Report: Risk Assessment Forum Technical Workshop on Population-level Ecological Risk Assessment

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

2008 technical workshop regarding development of additional guidelines or best practices for planning, implementing and interpreting ecological risk assessments that involve population-level assessment endpoints.

Review of methods for developing probabilistic risk assessments

Treesearch

D. A. Weinstein; P.B. Woodbury

2010-01-01

We describe methodologies currently in use or those under development containing features for estimating fire occurrence risk assessment. We describe two major categories of fire risk assessment tools: those that predict fire under current conditions, assuming that vegetation, climate, and the interactions between them and fire remain relatively similar to their...

75 FR 82400 - Development of Health Risk Assessment Guidance; Public Forum

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-12-30

... Care Act (ACA) (Pub. L. 111-148) requires that a Health Risk Assessment be included in the annual... DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Development of Health Risk Assessment Guidance; Public Forum AGENCY: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC...

Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca

2015-07-01

Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.

Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk—Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological c

The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

PubMed Central

Bos, Peter M. J.; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J.; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F.; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J. G. M.; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C. E.; Oomen, Agnes G.

2015-01-01

An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy. PMID:26633430

The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials.

PubMed

Bos, Peter M J; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C E; Oomen, Agnes G

2015-11-27

An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

Design and implementation of a risk assessment module in a spatial decision support system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Kaixi; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim

2014-05-01

The spatial decision support system named 'Changes SDSS' is currently under development. The goal of this system is to analyze changing hydro-meteorological hazards and the effect of risk reduction alternatives to support decision makers in choosing the best alternatives. The risk assessment module within the system is to assess the current risk, analyze the risk after implementations of risk reduction alternatives, and analyze the risk in different future years when considering scenarios such as climate change, land use change and population growth. The objective of this work is to present the detailed design and implementation plan of the risk assessment module. The main challenges faced consist of how to shift the risk assessment from traditional desktop software to an open source web-based platform, the availability of input data and the inclusion of uncertainties in the risk analysis. The risk assessment module is developed using Ext JS library for the implementation of user interface on the client side, using Python for scripting, as well as PostGIS spatial functions for complex computations on the server side. The comprehensive consideration of the underlying uncertainties in input data can lead to a better quantification of risk assessment and a more reliable Changes SDSS, since the outputs of risk assessment module are the basis for decision making module within the system. The implementation of this module will contribute to the development of open source web-based modules for multi-hazard risk assessment in the future. This work is part of the "CHANGES SDSS" project, funded by the European Community's 7th Framework Program.

Chemical Mixtures Health Risk Assessment: Overview of Exposure Assessment, Whole Mixtures Assessments; Basic Concepts

EPA Science Inventory

This problems-based, half-day, introductory workshop focuses on methods to assess health risks posed by exposures to chemical mixtures in the environment. Chemical mixtures health risk assessment methods continue to be developed and evolve to address concerns over health risks f...

Assessing Academic Risk of Student-Athletes: Applicability of the NCAA Graduation Risk Overview Model to GPA

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, James

2013-01-01

In an effort to standardize academic risk assessment, the NCAA developed the graduation risk overview (GRO) model. Although this model was designed to assess graduation risk, its ability to predict grade-point average (GPA) remained unknown. Therefore, 134 individual risk assessments were made to determine GRO model effectiveness in the…

NATIONAL-SCALE ASSESSMENT OF AIR TOXICS RISKS ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The national-scale assessment of air toxics risks is a modeling assessment which combines emission inventory development, atmospheric fate and transport modeling, exposure modeling, and risk assessment to characterize the risk associated with inhaling air toxics from outdoor sources. This national-scale effort will be initiated for the base year 1996 and repeated every three years thereafter to track trends and inform program development. Provide broad-scale understanding of inhalation risks for a subset of atmospherically-emitted air toxics to inform further data-gathering efforts and priority-setting for the EPA's Air Toxics Programs.

Multifactorial screening for fall risk in community-dwelling older adults in the primary care office: development of the fall risk assessment & screening tool.

PubMed

Renfro, Mindy Oxman; Fehrer, Steven

2011-01-01

Unintentional falls is an increasing public health problem as incidence of falls rises and the population ages. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports that 1 in 3 adults aged 65 years and older will experience a fall this year; 20% to 30% of those who fall will sustain a moderate to severe injury. Physical therapists caring for older adults are usually engaged with these patients after the first injury fall and may have little opportunity to abate fall risk before the injuries occur. This article describes the content selection and development of a simple-to-administer, multifactorial, Fall Risk Assessment & Screening Tool (FRAST), designed specifically for use in primary care settings to identify those older adults with high fall risk. Fall Risk Assessment & Screening Tool incorporates previously validated measures within a new multifactorial tool and includes targeted recommendations for intervention. Development of the multifactorial FRAST used a 5-part process: identification of significant fall risk factors, review of best evidence, selection of items, creation of the scoring grid, and development of a recommended action plan. Fall Risk Assessment & Screening Tool has been developed to assess fall risk in the target population of older adults (older than 65 years) living and ambulating independently in the community. Many fall risk factors have been considered and 15 items selected for inclusion. Fall Risk Assessment & Screening Tool includes 4 previously validated measures to assess balance, depression, falls efficacy, and home safety. Reliability and validity studies of FRAST are under way. Fall risk for community-dwelling older adults is an urgent, multifactorial, public health problem. Providing primary care practitioners (PCPs) with a very simple screening tool is imperative. Fall Risk Assessment & Screening Tool was created to allow for safe, quick, and low-cost administration by minimally trained office staff with interpretation and follow-up provided by the PCP.

Historical relationship between performance assessment for radioactive waste disposal and other types of risk assessment.

PubMed

Rechard, R P

1999-10-01

This article describes the evolution of the process for assessing the hazards of a geologic disposal system for radioactive waste and, similarly, nuclear power reactors, and the relationship of this process with other assessments of risk, particularly assessments of hazards from manufactured carcinogenic chemicals during use and disposal. This perspective reviews the common history of scientific concepts for risk assessment developed until the 1950s. Computational tools and techniques developed in the late 1950s and early 1960s to analyze the reliability of nuclear weapon delivery systems were adopted in the early 1970s for probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power reactors, a technology for which behavior was unknown. In turn, these analyses became an important foundation for performance assessment of nuclear waste disposal in the late 1970s. The evaluation of risk to human health and the environment from chemical hazards is built on methods for assessing the dose response of radionuclides in the 1950s. Despite a shared background, however, societal events, often in the form of legislation, have affected the development path for risk assessment for human health, producing dissimilarities between these risk assessments and those for nuclear facilities. An important difference is the regulator's interest in accounting for uncertainty.

REGIONAL SCALE COMPARATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) is an approach to regional-scale ecological risk assessment that is currently under development by EPA's Office of Research and Development. The pilot assessment will be done for the mid-Atlantic region and builds on data collected for th...

Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy.

PubMed

Adger, W Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

2018-06-13

Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

2018-06-01

Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

PubMed Central

Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

2018-01-01

Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’. PMID:29712800

Sustainable nanotechnology decision support system: bridging risk management, sustainable innovation and risk governance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Subramanian, Vrishali; Semenzin, Elena; Hristozov, Danail; Zabeo, Alex; Malsch, Ineke; McAlea, Eamonn; Murphy, Finbarr; Mullins, Martin; van Harmelen, Toon; Ligthart, Tom; Linkov, Igor; Marcomini, Antonio

2016-04-01

The significant uncertainties associated with the (eco)toxicological risks of engineered nanomaterials pose challenges to the development of nano-enabled products toward greatest possible societal benefit. This paper argues for the use of risk governance approaches to manage nanotechnology risks and sustainability, and considers the links between these concepts. Further, seven risk assessment and management criteria relevant to risk governance are defined: (a) life cycle thinking, (b) triple bottom line, (c) inclusion of stakeholders, (d) risk management, (e) benefit-risk assessment, (f) consideration of uncertainty, and (g) adaptive response. These criteria are used to compare five well-developed nanotechnology frameworks: International Risk Governance Council framework, Comprehensive Environmental Assessment, Streaming Life Cycle Risk Assessment, Certifiable Nanospecific Risk Management and Monitoring System and LICARA NanoSCAN. A Sustainable Nanotechnology Decision Support System (SUNDS) is proposed to better address current nanotechnology risk assessment and management needs, and makes. Stakeholder needs were solicited for further SUNDS enhancement through a stakeholder workshop that included representatives from regulatory, industry and insurance sectors. Workshop participants expressed the need for the wider adoption of sustainability assessment methods and tools for designing greener nanomaterials.

Green Jobs: Definition and Method of Appraisal of Chemical and Biological Risks

PubMed Central

Cheneval, Erwan; Busque, Marc-Antoine; Ostiguy, Claude; Lavoie, Jacques; Bourbonnais, Robert; Labrèche, France; Bakhiyi, Bouchra; Zayed, Joseph

2016-01-01

In the wake of sustainable development, green jobs are developing rapidly, changing the work environment. However a green job is not automatically a safe job. The aim of the study was to define green jobs, and to establish a preliminary risk assessment of chemical substances and biological agents for workers in Quebec. An operational definition was developed, along with criteria and sustainable development principles to discriminate green jobs from regular jobs. The potential toxicity or hazard associated with their chemical and biological exposures was assessed, and the workers’ exposure appraised using an expert assessment method. A control banding approach was then used to assess risks for workers in selected green jobs. A double entry model allowed us to set priorities in terms of chemical or biological risk. Among jobs that present the highest risk potential, several are related to waste management. The developed method is flexible and could be adapted to better appraise the risks that workers are facing or to propose control measures. PMID:26718400

Integrated risk framework for onsite wastewater treatment systems.

PubMed

Carroll, Steven; Goonetilleke, Ashantha; Thomas, Evan; Hargreaves, Megan; Frost, Ray; Dawes, Les

2006-08-01

Onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTS) are becoming increasingly important for the treatment and dispersal of effluent in new urbanised developments that are not serviced by centralised wastewater collection and treatment systems. However, the current standards and guidelines adopted by many local authorities for assessing suitable site and soil conditions for OWTS are increasingly coming under scrutiny due to the public health and environmental impacts caused by poorly performing systems, in particular septic tank-soil adsorption systems. In order to achieve sustainable onsite wastewater treatment with minimal impacts on the environment and public health, more appropriate means of assessment are required. This paper highlights an integrated risk based approach for assessing the inherent hazards associated with OWTS in order to manage and mitigate the environmental and public health risks inherent with onsite wastewater treatment. In developing a sound and cohesive integrated risk framework for OWTS, several key issues must be recognised. These include the inclusion of relevant stakeholders throughout framework development, the integration of scientific knowledge, data and analysis with risk assessment and management ideals, and identification of the appropriate performance goals for successful management and mitigation of associated risks. These issues were addressed in the development of the risk framework to provide a generic approach to assessing risk from OWTS. The utilisation of the developed risk framework for achieving more appropriate assessment and management techniques for OWTS is presented in a case study for the Gold Coast region, Queensland State, Australia.

Integrated Risk Framework for Onsite Wastewater Treatment Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carroll, Steven; Goonetilleke, Ashantha; Thomas, Evan; Hargreaves, Megan; Frost, Ray; Dawes, Les

2006-08-01

Onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTS) are becoming increasingly important for the treatment and dispersal of effluent in new urbanised developments that are not serviced by centralised wastewater collection and treatment systems. However, the current standards and guidelines adopted by many local authorities for assessing suitable site and soil conditions for OWTS are increasingly coming under scrutiny due to the public health and environmental impacts caused by poorly performing systems, in particular septic tank-soil adsorption systems. In order to achieve sustainable onsite wastewater treatment with minimal impacts on the environment and public health, more appropriate means of assessment are required. This paper highlights an integrated risk based approach for assessing the inherent hazards associated with OWTS in order to manage and mitigate the environmental and public health risks inherent with onsite wastewater treatment. In developing a sound and cohesive integrated risk framework for OWTS, several key issues must be recognised. These include the inclusion of relevant stakeholders throughout framework development, the integration of scientific knowledge, data and analysis with risk assessment and management ideals, and identification of the appropriate performance goals for successful management and mitigation of associated risks. These issues were addressed in the development of the risk framework to provide a generic approach to assessing risk from OWTS. The utilisation of the developed risk framework for achieving more appropriate assessment and management techniques for OWTS is presented in a case study for the Gold Coast region, Queensland State, Australia.

Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

Cancer.gov

The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

Pre- and posttest evaluation of a breast cancer risk assessment program for nurse practitioners.

PubMed

Edwards, Quannetta T; Seibert, Diane

2010-07-01

Numerous studies have shown that healthcare providers, including nurse practitioners (NPs) fail to provide breast cancer risk assessment (BrCRA) in primary care settings. A potential barrier to the use of BrCRA is insufficient knowledge or training of risk assessment. The purpose of this study was to analyze the outcome of a BrCRA program developed to enhance NPs' knowledge of risk assessment and use of empiric risk assessment models. Thirty-five NPs participated in a before-after (pretest-posttest design) study evaluating the effectiveness of a BrCRA education program conducted at a national NP conference. Demographics, pre/post knowledge, and course satisfaction measures were all examined as a part of this pilot study. Continuing education through the implementation of a BrCRA program significantly increased NPs knowledge in assessing breast cancer risk and the use of empiric risk assessment models. Many healthcare providers, including NPs, are inadequately prepared to assess a woman's risk for breast cancer. Understanding breast cancer risk assessment is essential if NPs are to provide appropriate counseling, management, and referral strategies needed to reduce a woman's risk for developing the disease. Continuing education provides one means to enhance NP's knowledge of BrCRA.

Development of risk-based air quality management strategies under impacts of climate change.

PubMed

Liao, Kuo-Jen; Amar, Praveen; Tagaris, Efthimios; Russell, Armistead G

2012-05-01

Climate change is forecast to adversely affect air quality through perturbations in meteorological conditions, photochemical reactions, and precursor emissions. To protect the environment and human health from air pollution, there is an increasing recognition of the necessity of developing effective air quality management strategies under the impacts of climate change. This paper presents a framework for developing risk-based air quality management strategies that can help policy makers improve their decision-making processes in response to current and future climate change about 30-50 years from now. Development of air quality management strategies under the impacts of climate change is fundamentally a risk assessment and risk management process involving four steps: (1) assessment of the impacts of climate change and associated uncertainties; (2) determination of air quality targets; (3) selections of potential air quality management options; and (4) identification of preferred air quality management strategies that minimize control costs, maximize benefits, or limit the adverse effects of climate change on air quality when considering the scarcity of resources. The main challenge relates to the level of uncertainties associated with climate change forecasts and advancements in future control measures, since they will significantly affect the risk assessment results and development of effective air quality management plans. The concept presented in this paper can help decision makers make appropriate responses to climate change, since it provides an integrated approach for climate risk assessment and management when developing air quality management strategies. Development of climate-responsive air quality management strategies is fundamentally a risk assessment and risk management process. The risk assessment process includes quantification of climate change impacts on air quality and associated uncertainties. Risk management for air quality under the impacts of climate change includes determination of air quality targets, selections of potential management options, and identification of effective air quality management strategies through decision-making models. The risk-based decision-making framework can also be applied to develop climate-responsive management strategies for the other environmental dimensions and assess costs and benefits of future environmental management policies.

Incorporating Risk Assessment into the Formative Evaluation of an Authentic e-Learning Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vesper, James L.; Kartoglu, Ümit; Herrington, Jan; Reeves, Thomas C.

2016-01-01

This paper describes the use of two different risk assessment strategies during the design and development of a complex authentic task-based e-learning program developed by the World Health Organization (WHO). The first strategy involved the use of expert reviewers and the second strategy employed the engagement of a risk assessment expert…

Quantification of key long-term risks at CO₂ sequestration sites: Latest results from US DOE's National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) Project

DOE PAGES

Pawar, Rajesh; Bromhal, Grant; Carroll, Susan; ...

2014-12-31

Risk assessment for geologic CO₂ storage including quantification of risks is an area of active investigation. The National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) is a US-Department of Energy (US-DOE) effort focused on developing a defensible, science-based methodology and platform for quantifying risk profiles at geologic CO₂ sequestration sites. NRAP has been developing a methodology that centers round development of an integrated assessment model (IAM) using system modeling approach to quantify risks and risk profiles. The IAM has been used to calculate risk profiles with a few key potential impacts due to potential CO₂ and brine leakage. The simulation results are alsomore » used to determine long-term storage security relationships and compare the long-term storage effectiveness to IPCC storage permanence goal. Additionally, we also demonstrate application of IAM for uncertainty quantification in order to determine parameters to which the uncertainty in model results is most sensitive.« less

RISK ASSESSMENT AND EPIDEMIOLOGICAL INFORMATION FOR PATHOGENIC MICROORGANISMS APPLIED TO SOIL

EPA Science Inventory

There is increasing interest in the development of a microbial risk assessment methodology for regulatory and operational decision making. Initial interests in microbial risk assessments focused on drinking, recreational, and reclaimed water issues. More recently risk assessmen...

Time-Tagged Risk/Reliability Assessment Program for Development and Operation of Space System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kubota, Yuki; Takegahara, Haruki; Aoyagi, Junichiro

We have investigated a new method of risk/reliability assessment for development and operation of space system. It is difficult to evaluate risk of spacecraft, because of long time operation, maintenance free and difficulty of test under the ground condition. Conventional methods are FMECA, FTA, ETA and miscellaneous. These are not enough to assess chronological anomaly and there is a problem to share information during R&D. A new method of risk and reliability assessment, T-TRAP (Time-tagged Risk/Reliability Assessment Program) is proposed as a management tool for the development and operation of space system. T-TRAP consisting of time-resolved Fault Tree and Criticality Analyses, upon occurrence of anomaly in the system, facilitates the responsible personnel to quickly identify the failure cause and decide corrective actions. This paper describes T-TRAP method and its availability.

Future research needs associated with the assessment of potential human health risks from exposure to toxic ambient air pollutants.

PubMed Central

Möller, L; Schuetzle, D; Autrup, H

1994-01-01

This paper presents key conclusions and future research needs from a Workshop on the Risk Assessment of Urban Air, Emissions, Exposure, Risk Identification, and Quantification, which was held in Stockholm during June 1992 by 41 participants from 13 countries. Research is recommended in the areas of identification and quantification of toxics in source emissions and ambient air, atmospheric transport and chemistry, exposure level assessment, the development of improved in vitro bioassays, biomarker development, the development of more accurate epidemiological methodologies, and risk quantification techniques. Studies are described that will be necessary to assess and reduce the level of uncertainties associated with each step of the risk assessment process. International collaborative research efforts between industry and government organizations are recommended as the most effective way to carry out this research. PMID:7529703

Advancing environmental risk assessment for transgenic biofeedstock crops

PubMed Central

Wolt, Jeffrey D

2009-01-01

Transgenic modification of plants is a key enabling technology for developing sustainable biofeedstocks for biofuels production. Regulatory decisions and the wider acceptance and development of transgenic biofeedstock crops are considered from the context of science-based risk assessment. The risk assessment paradigm for transgenic biofeedstock crops is fundamentally no different from that of current generation transgenic crops, except that the focus of the assessment must consider the unique attributes of a given biofeedstock crop and its environmental release. For currently envisioned biofeedstock crops, particular emphasis in risk assessment will be given to characterization of altered metabolic profiles and their implications relative to non-target environmental effects and food safety; weediness and invasiveness when plants are modified for abiotic stress tolerance or are domesticated; and aggregate risk when plants are platforms for multi-product production. Robust risk assessments for transgenic biofeedstock crops are case-specific, initiated through problem formulation, and use tiered approaches for risk characterization. PMID:19883509

Validation of Risk Assessment Models of Venous Thromboembolism in Hospitalized Medical Patients.

PubMed

Greene, M Todd; Spyropoulos, Alex C; Chopra, Vineet; Grant, Paul J; Kaatz, Scott; Bernstein, Steven J; Flanders, Scott A

2016-09-01

Patients hospitalized for acute medical illness are at increased risk for venous thromboembolism. Although risk assessment is recommended and several at-admission risk assessment models have been developed, these have not been adequately derived or externally validated. Therefore, an optimal approach to evaluate venous thromboembolism risk in medical patients is not known. We conducted an external validation study of existing venous thromboembolism risk assessment models using data collected on 63,548 hospitalized medical patients as part of the Michigan Hospital Medicine Safety (HMS) Consortium. For each patient, cumulative venous thromboembolism risk scores and risk categories were calculated. Cox regression models were used to quantify the association between venous thromboembolism events and assigned risk categories. Model discrimination was assessed using Harrell's C-index. Venous thromboembolism incidence in hospitalized medical patients is low (1%). Although existing risk assessment models demonstrate good calibration (hazard ratios for "at-risk" range 2.97-3.59), model discrimination is generally poor for all risk assessment models (C-index range 0.58-0.64). The performance of several existing risk assessment models for predicting venous thromboembolism among acutely ill, hospitalized medical patients at admission is limited. Given the low venous thromboembolism incidence in this nonsurgical patient population, careful consideration of how best to utilize existing venous thromboembolism risk assessment models is necessary, and further development and validation of novel venous thromboembolism risk assessment models for this patient population may be warranted. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Development of a shared decision-making tool to assist patients and clinicians with decisions on oral anticoagulant treatment for atrial fibrillation.

PubMed

Kaiser, Karen; Cheng, Wendy Y; Jensen, Sally; Clayman, Marla L; Thappa, Andrew; Schwiep, Frances; Chawla, Anita; Goldberger, Jeffrey J; Col, Nananda; Schein, Jeff

2015-12-01

Decision aids (DAs) are increasingly used to operationalize shared decision-making (SDM) but their development is not often described. Decisions about oral anticoagulants (OACs) for atrial fibrillation (AF) involve a trade-off between lowering stroke risk and increasing OAC-associated bleeding risk, and consideration of how treatment affects lifestyle. The benefits and risks of OACs hinge upon a patient's risk factors for stroke and bleeding and how they value these outcomes. We present the development of a DA about AF that estimates patients' risks for stroke and bleeding and assesses their preferences for outcomes. Based on a literature review and expert discussions, we identified stroke and major bleeding risk prediction models and embedded them into risk assessment modules. We identified the most important factors in choosing OAC treatment (warfarin used as the default reference OAC) through focus group discussions with AF patients who had used warfarin and clinician interviews. We then designed preference assessment and introductory modules accordingly. We integrated these modules into a prototype AF SDM tool and evaluated its usability through interviews. Our tool included four modules: (1) introduction to AF and OAC treatment risks and benefits; (2) stroke risk assessment; (3) bleeding risk assessment; and (4) preference assessment. Interactive risk calculators estimated patient-specific stroke and bleeding risks; graphics were developed to communicate these risks. After cognitive interviews, the content was improved. The final AF tool calculates patient-specific risks and benefits of OAC treatment and couples these estimates with patient preferences to improve clinical decision-making. The AF SDM tool may help patients choose whether OAC treatment is best for them and represents a patient-centered, integrative approach to educate patients on the benefits and risks of OAC treatment. Future research is needed to evaluate this tool in a real-world setting. The development process presented can be applied to similar SDM tools.

Historical Relationship Between Performance Assessment for Radioactive Waste Disposal and Other Types of Risk Assessment in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

RECHARD,ROBERT P.

This paper describes the evolution of the process for assessing the hazards of a geologic disposal system for radioactive waste and, similarly, nuclear power reactors, and the relationship of this process with other assessments of risk, particularly assessments of hazards from manufactured carcinogenic chemicals during use and disposal. This perspective reviews the common history of scientific concepts for risk assessment developed to the 1950s. Computational tools and techniques developed in the late 1950s and early 1960s to analyze the reliability of nuclear weapon delivery systems were adopted in the early 1970s for probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power reactors, amore » technology for which behavior was unknown. In turn, these analyses became an important foundation for performance assessment of nuclear waste disposal in the late 1970s. The evaluation of risk to human health and the environment from chemical hazards is built upon methods for assessing the dose response of radionuclides in the 1950s. Despite a shared background, however, societal events, often in the form of legislation, have affected the development path for risk assessment for human health, producing dissimilarities between these risk assessments and those for nuclear facilities. An important difference is the regulator's interest in accounting for uncertainty and the tools used to evaluate it.« less

The EPA's human exposure research program for assessing cumulative risk in communities.

PubMed

Zartarian, Valerie G; Schultz, Bradley D

2010-06-01

Communities are faced with challenges in identifying and prioritizing environmental issues, taking actions to reduce their exposures, and determining their effectiveness for reducing human health risks. Additional challenges include determining what scientific tools are available and most relevant, and understanding how to use those tools; given these barriers, community groups tend to rely more on risk perception than science. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Research and Development, National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) and collaborators are developing and applying tools (models, data, methods) for enhancing cumulative risk assessments. The NERL's "Cumulative Communities Research Program" focuses on key science questions: (1) How to systematically identify and prioritize key chemical stressors within a given community?; (2) How to develop estimates of exposure to multiple stressors for individuals in epidemiologic studies?; and (3) What tools can be used to assess community-level distributions of exposures for the development and evaluation of the effectiveness of risk reduction strategies? This paper provides community partners and scientific researchers with an understanding of the NERL research program and other efforts to address cumulative community risks; and key research needs and opportunities. Some initial findings include the following: (1) Many useful tools exist for components of risk assessment, but need to be developed collaboratively with end users and made more comprehensive and user-friendly for practical application; (2) Tools for quantifying cumulative risks and impact of community risk reduction activities are also needed; (3) More data are needed to assess community- and individual-level exposures, and to link exposure-related information with health effects; and (4) Additional research is needed to incorporate risk-modifying factors ("non-chemical stressors") into cumulative risk assessments. The products of this research program will advance the science for cumulative risk assessments and empower communities with information so that they can make informed, cost-effective decisions to improve public health.

[Assessment of health risk in view of changes in labor code and methods used for protecting the environment].

PubMed

Indulski, J A; Rolecki, R

1994-01-01

In view of the present and proposed amendments to the Labor Code as well as bearing in mind anticipated harmonization of regulations in this area with those of EEC, the authors emphasize the need for well developed methodology for assessing chemical safety in an occupational environment with special reference to health effects in people exposed to chemicals. Methods for assessing health risk induced by work under conditions of exposure to chemicals were divided into: methods for assessing technological/processing risk, and methods for assessing health risk related to the toxic effect of chemicals. The need for developing means of risk communication in order to secure proper risk perception among people exposed to chemicals and risk managers responsible for prevention against chemical hazards was also stressed. It is suggested to establish a centre for chemical substances in order to settle down all issues pertaining to human exposure to chemicals. The centre would be responsible, under the provisions of the Chemical Substances Act, for the qualitative and quantitative analysis of the present situation and for the development of guidelines on assessment of health risk among persons exposed to chemicals.

Multi-hazard national-level risk assessment in Africa using global approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraser, Stuart; Jongman, Brenden; Simpson, Alanna; Murnane, Richard

2016-04-01

In recent years Sub-Saharan Africa has been characterized by unprecedented opportunity for transformation and sustained growth. However, natural disasters such as droughts, floods, cyclones, earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions and extreme temperatures cause significant economic and human losses, and major development challenges. Quantitative disaster risk assessments are an important basis for governments to understand disaster risk in their country, and to develop effective risk management and risk financing solutions. However, the data-scarce nature of many Sub-Saharan African countries as well as a lack of financing for risk assessments has long prevented detailed analytics. Recent advances in globally applicable disaster risk modelling practices and data availability offer new opportunities. In December 2013 the European Union approved a € 60 million contribution to support the development of an analytical basis for risk financing and to accelerate the effective implementation of a comprehensive disaster risk reduction. The World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) was selected as the implementing partner of the Program for Result Area 5: the "Africa Disaster Risk Assessment and Financing Program." As part of this effort, the GFDRR is overseeing the production of national-level multi-hazard risk profiles for a range of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, using a combination of national and global datasets and state-of-the-art hazard and risk assessment methodologies. In this presentation, we will highlight the analytical approach behind these assessments, and show results for the first five countries for which the assessment has been completed (Kenya, Uganda, Senegal, Niger and Ethiopia). The presentation will also demonstrate the visualization of the risk assessments into understandable and visually attractive risk profile documents.

APPROACHES TO RISK ASSESSMENT FOR MULTIPLE CHEMICAL EXPOSURES

EPA Science Inventory

The Environmental Criteria and Assessment Office (ECAO) in Cincinnati has developed health risk assessment methods for chronic exposure to single chemical from a single route of exposure. Risk assessments for carcinogens associated an exposure level with a particular incidence of...

Risk Assessment in Underground Coalmines Using Fuzzy Logic in the Presence of Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tripathy, Debi Prasad; Ala, Charan Kumar

2018-04-01

Fatal accidents are occurring every year as regular events in Indian coal mining industry. To increase the safety conditions, it has become a prerequisite to performing a risk assessment of various operations in mines. However, due to uncertain accident data, it is hard to conduct a risk assessment in mines. The object of this study is to present a method to assess safety risks in underground coalmines. The assessment of safety risks is based on the fuzzy reasoning approach. Mamdani fuzzy logic model is developed in the fuzzy logic toolbox of MATLAB. A case study is used to demonstrate the applicability of the developed model. The summary of risk evaluation in case study mine indicated that mine fire has the highest risk level among all the hazard factors. This study could help the mine management to prepare safety measures based on the risk rankings obtained.

Environmental risk assessment of a genetically-engineered microorganism: Erwinia carotovora

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Orvos, D.R.

1989-01-01

Environmental use of genetically-engineered microorganisms (GEMs) has raised concerns over potential ecological impact. Development of microcosm systems useful in preliminary testing for risk assessment will provide useful information for predicting potential structural, functional, and genetic effects of GEM release. This study was executed to develop techniques that may be useful in risk assessment and microbial ecology, to ascertain which parameters are useful in determining risk and to predict risk from releasing an engineered strain of Erwinia carotovora. A terrestrial microcosm system for use in GEM risk assessment studies was developed for use in assessing alterations of microbial structure and functionmore » that may be caused by introducing the engineered strain of E. carotovora. This strain is being developed for use as a biological control agent for plant soft rot. Parameters that were monitored included survival and intraspecific competition of E. carotovora, structural effects upon both total bacterial populations and numbers of selected bacterial genera, effects upon activities of dehydrogenase and alkaline phosphatase, effects upon soil nutrients, and potential for gene transfer into or out of the engineered strain.« less

Falls risk assessment begins with hello: lessons learned from the use of one home health agency's fall risk tool.

PubMed

Flemming, Patricia J; Ramsay, Katherine

2012-10-01

Identifying older adults at risk for falls is a challenge all home healthcare agencies (HHAs) face. The process of assessing for falls risk begins with the initial home visit. One HHA affiliated with an academic medical center describes its experience in development and use of a Falls Risk Assessment (FRA) tool over a 10-year period. The FRA tool has been modified since initial development to clarify elements of the tool based on research and to reflect changes in the Outcome and Assessment Information Set (OASIS) document. The primary purpose of this article is to share a validated falls risk assessment tool to facilitate identification of fall-related risk factors in the homebound population. A secondary purpose is to share lessons learned by the HHA during the 10 years using the FRA.

Phthalates and Cumulative Risk Assessment (NAS Final ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

On December 18, 2008, the National Academy of Sciences' National Research Council released a final report, requested and sponsored by the EPA, entitled Phthalates and Cumulative Risk Assessment: The Task Ahead. Risk assessment has become a dominant public policy tool for making choices, based on limited resources, to protect public health and the environment. It has been instrumental to the mission of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as well as other federal agencies in evaluating public health concerns, informing regulatory and technological decisions, prioritizing research needs and funding, and in developing approaches for cost-benefit analysis. People are exposed to a variety of chemicals throughout their daily lives. To protect public health, regulators use risk assessments to examine the effects of chemical exposures. This book provides guidance for assessing the risk of phthalates, chemicals found in many consumer products that have been shown to affect the development of the male reproductive system of laboratory animals. Because people are exposed to multiple phthalates and other chemicals that affect male reproductive development, a cumulative risk assessment should be conducted that evaluates the combined effects of exposure to all these chemicals. The book suggests an approach for cumulative risk assessment that can serve as a model for evaluating the health risks of other types of chemicals.

76 FR 58509 - Release of Risk and Exposure Assessment Planning Document for the Review of the National Ambient...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-09-21

... ISA) provides support for the development of quantitative assessments of risk and exposure for health... conclusions presented in the First Draft ISA provide support for the development of quantitative assessments...

Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

PubMed

Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

2008-07-01

The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would be useful to develop case studies and/or standards of practice for interpreting lines of evidence. In addition, tools for cumulative risk assessment should be developed because contaminants are often released into stressed environments.

DEVELOPMENT OF A COMPARATIVE POTENCY METHOD FOR CANCER RISK ASSESSMENT OF COMPLEX MIXTURES USING SHORT-TERM 'IN VIVO' AND 'IN VITRO' BIOASSAYS

EPA Science Inventory

A comparative potency method for cancer risk assessment has been developed based upon a constant relative potency hypothesis. This method was developed and tested using data from a battery of short-term mutagenesis bioassays, animal tumorigenicity data and human lung cancer risk ...

Periodontal Management by Risk Assessment: A Pragmatic Approach.

PubMed

Mullins, Joanna M; Even, Joshua B; White, Joel M

2016-06-01

An evidence-based periodontal disease risk assessment and diagnosis system has been developed and combined with a clinical decision support and management program to improve treatment and measure patient outcomes. There is little agreement on a universally accepted periodontal risk assessment, periodontal diagnosis, and treatment management tool and their incorporation into dental practice to improve patient care. This article highlights the development and use of a practical periodontal management and risk assessment program that can be implemented in dental settings. The approach taken by Willamette Dental Group to develop a periodontal disease risk assessment, periodontal diagnosis, and treatment management tool is described using evidence-based best practices. With goals of standardized treatment interventions while maintaining personalized care and improved communication, this process is described to facilitate its incorporation into other dental settings. Current electronic health records can be leveraged to enhance patient-centered care through the use of risk assessments and standardized guidelines to more effectively assess, diagnose, and treat patients to improve outcomes. Dental hygienists, and other committed providers, with their emphasis on prevention of periodontal disease can be principal drivers in creation and implementation of periodontal risk assessments and personalized treatment planning. Willamette Dental Group believes that such evidence-based tools can advance dentistry to new diagnostic and treatment standards. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Chemical Mixtures Health Risk Assessment of Environmental Contaminants: Concepts, Methods, Applications

EPA Science Inventory

This problems-based, introductory workshop focuses on methods to assess health risks posed by exposures to chemical mixtures in the environment. Chemical mixtures health risk assessment methods continue to be developed and evolve to address concerns over health risks from multic...

Chemical Mixtures Health Risk Assessment of Environmental Contaminants: Concepts, Methods, And Applications

EPA Science Inventory

This problems-based, introductory workshop focuses on methods to assess health risks posed by exposures to chemical mixtures in the environment. Chemical mixtures health risk assessment methods continue to be developed and evolve to address concerns over health risks from multic...

Risk assessment of storm surge disaster based on numerical models and remote sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Qingrong; Ruan, Chengqing; Zhong, Shan; Li, Jian; Yin, Zhonghui; Lian, Xihu

2018-06-01

Storm surge is one of the most serious ocean disasters in the world. Risk assessment of storm surge disaster for coastal areas has important implications for planning economic development and reducing disaster losses. Based on risk assessment theory, this paper uses coastal hydrological observations, a numerical storm surge model and multi-source remote sensing data, proposes methods for valuing hazard and vulnerability for storm surge and builds a storm surge risk assessment model. Storm surges in different recurrence periods are simulated in numerical models and the flooding areas and depth are calculated, which are used for assessing the hazard of storm surge; remote sensing data and GIS technology are used for extraction of coastal key objects and classification of coastal land use are identified, which is used for vulnerability assessment of storm surge disaster. The storm surge risk assessment model is applied for a typical coastal city, and the result shows the reliability and validity of the risk assessment model. The building and application of storm surge risk assessment model provides some basis reference for the city development plan and strengthens disaster prevention and mitigation.

Risk Assessment and Risk Management in Offenders with Intellectual Disabilities: Are We There Yet?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pouls, Claudia; Jeandarme, Inge

2015-01-01

Research on risk assessment and risk management in offenders with intellectual disabilities (OIDs), although far behind compared to the mainstream offender literature, is now expanding. The current review provides an overview of the predictive value of risk assessment and treatment outcome monitoring tools developed for both mainstream forensic…

Integrating Risk Context into Risk Assessments: The Risk Context Scale

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kroner, Daryl G.; Gray, Andrew L.; Goodrich, Ben

2013-01-01

The context in which offenders are released is an important component of conducting risk assessments. A sample of 257 supervised male parolees were followed in the community ("M" = 870 days) after an initial risk assessment. Drawing on community-based information, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the recently developed Risk…

Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This is the first step in a long-term effort to develop risk assessment guidelines for ecological effects. Its primary purpose is to offer a simple, flexible structure for conducting and evaluating ecological risk assessment within EPA.

Human and animal health risk assessments of chemicals in the food chain: Comparative aspects and future perspectives

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dorne, J.L.C.M., E-mail: jean-lou.dorne@efsa.europa.eu; Fink-Gremmels, J.

Chemicals from anthropogenic and natural origins enter animal feed, human food and water either as undesirable contaminants or as part of the components of a diet. Over the last five decades, considerable efforts and progress to develop methodologies to protect humans and animals against potential risks associated with exposure to such potentially toxic chemicals have been made. This special issue presents relevant methodological developments and examples of risk assessments of undesirable substances in the food chain integrating the animal health and the human health perspective and refers to recent Opinions of the Scientific Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chainmore » (CONTAM) of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). This introductory review aims to give a comparative account of the risk assessment steps used in human health and animal health risk assessments for chemicals in the food chain and provides a critical view of the data gaps and future perspectives for this cross-disciplinary field. - Highlights: ► Principles of human and animal health risk assessment. ► Data gaps for each step of animal health risk assessment. ► Implications of animal risk assessment on human risk assessment. ► Future perspectives on chemical risk assessment.« less

The development and testing of a skin tear risk assessment tool.

PubMed

Newall, Nelly; Lewin, Gill F; Bulsara, Max K; Carville, Keryln J; Leslie, Gavin D; Roberts, Pam A

2017-02-01

The aim of the present study is to develop a reliable and valid skin tear risk assessment tool. The six characteristics identified in a previous case control study as constituting the best risk model for skin tear development were used to construct a risk assessment tool. The ability of the tool to predict skin tear development was then tested in a prospective study. Between August 2012 and September 2013, 1466 tertiary hospital patients were assessed at admission and followed up for 10 days to see if they developed a skin tear. The predictive validity of the tool was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. When the tool was found not to have performed as well as hoped, secondary analyses were performed to determine whether a potentially better performing risk model could be identified. The tool was found to have high sensitivity but low specificity and therefore have inadequate predictive validity. Secondary analysis of the combined data from this and the previous case control study identified an alternative better performing risk model. The tool developed and tested in this study was found to have inadequate predictive validity. The predictive validity of an alternative, more parsimonious model now needs to be tested. © 2015 Medicalhelplines.com Inc and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Harmonization of cancer and noncancer risk assessment: proceedings of a consensus-building workshop.

PubMed

Bogdanffy, M S; Daston, G; Faustman, E M; Kimmel, C A; Kimmel, G L; Seed, J; Vu, V

2001-05-01

Significant advancements have been made toward the use of all relevant scientific information in health risk assessments. This principle has been set forth in risk-assessment guidance documents of international agencies including those of the World Health Organization's International Programme on Chemical Safety, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and Health Canada. Improving the scientific basis of risk assessment is a leading strategic goal of the Society of Toxicology. In recent years, there has been a plethora of mechanistic research on modes of chemical toxicity that establishes mechanistic links between noncancer responses to toxic agents and subsequent overt manifestations of toxicity such as cancer. The research suggests that differences in approaches to assessing risk of cancer and noncancer toxicity need to be resolved and a common broad paradigm for dose-response assessments developed for all toxicity endpoints. In November 1999, a workshop entitled "Harmonization of Cancer and Noncancer Risk Assessment" was held to discuss the most critical issues involved in developing a more consistent and unified approach to risk assessment for all endpoints. Invited participants from government, industry, and academia discussed focus questions in the areas of mode of action as the basis for harmonization, common levels of adverse effect across toxicities for use in dose-response assessments, and scaling and uncertainty factors. This report summarizes the results of those discussions. There was broad agreement, albeit not unanimous, that current science supports the development of a harmonized set of principles that guide risk assessments for all toxic endpoints. There was an acceptance among the participants that understanding the mode of action of a chemical is ultimately critical for nondefault risk assessments, that common modes of action for different toxicities can be defined, and that our approach to assessing toxicity should be biologically consistent.

Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

2017-04-01

The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended. The case studies of specific territories are performed using large-scale risk assessment methods. Thus, we discuss these problems by presenting an avalanche risk assessment approach on example of the developing but poorly researched ski resort areas in the North Caucasus. The suggested method includes the formulas to calculate collective and individual avalanche risk. The results of risk analysis are shown in quantitative data that can be used to determine levels of avalanche risk (acceptable, admissible and unacceptable) and to suggest methods to decrease the individual risk to acceptable level or better. It makes possible to compare risk quantitative data obtained from different mountain regions, analyze it and evaluate the economic feasibility of protection measures. At present, we are developing methods of avalanche risk assessment in economic performance. It conceder costs of objects located in avalanche prone area, traffic density values and probability of financial loss.

Green Jobs: Definition and Method of Appraisal of Chemical and Biological Risks.

PubMed

Cheneval, Erwan; Busque, Marc-Antoine; Ostiguy, Claude; Lavoie, Jacques; Bourbonnais, Robert; Labrèche, France; Bakhiyi, Bouchra; Zayed, Joseph

2016-04-01

In the wake of sustainable development, green jobs are developing rapidly, changing the work environment. However a green job is not automatically a safe job. The aim of the study was to define green jobs, and to establish a preliminary risk assessment of chemical substances and biological agents for workers in Quebec. An operational definition was developed, along with criteria and sustainable development principles to discriminate green jobs from regular jobs. The potential toxicity or hazard associated with their chemical and biological exposures was assessed, and the workers' exposure appraised using an expert assessment method. A control banding approach was then used to assess risks for workers in selected green jobs. A double entry model allowed us to set priorities in terms of chemical or biological risk. Among jobs that present the highest risk potential, several are related to waste management. The developed method is flexible and could be adapted to better appraise the risks that workers are facing or to propose control measures. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Occupational Hygiene Society.

Workshop-based methodology to understand the risks in grain export inspection and certification.

PubMed

Wilson, John R; Vaegen-Lloyd, Jo-Roxy; Caponecchia, Carlo

2009-07-01

Much of the human factors contribution in risk assessment and risk management has been focused on systems or product safety; the profession has a much smaller research base regarding risks to do with regulation, certification and public policy, for example. This paper discusses an explicitly human factors contribution to understanding and managing risk for the inspection and export certification of grain and plant products in Australia. Training and awareness workshops, incorporating elements of focus groups, were run for 12 groups of staff and managers from the government department concerned. As well as training in risk management the workshops were used to come to an understanding of the work of the inspectors and other staff, to identify the sources of risk to the successful completion of their work and to develop the basis for a risk assessment framework and tool. The paper is methodological in focus and describes the development and running of the workshops and explains how a human factors oriented risk register was developed on the basis of identification of potential threats and errors in the system. Whilst the contribution of ergonomics is increasingly important as regards safety risk assessment, professionals have been less active as regards business, public policy and even engineering risk. This paper describes an approach within which a new domain was studied and the risks of all kinds identified, preparatory to development of a risk assessment tool.

The hidden risk of deep vein thrombosis--the need for risk factor assessment: case reviews.

PubMed

Race, Tara Kay; Collier, Paul E

2007-01-01

Deep vein thrombosis (DVT) is a very serious, potentially fatal, and very preventable medical condition. It is important for all patients admitted to the hospital to be screened for the risk of developing a DVT. This could be easily accomplished by performing a risk factor assessment-screening tool on all patients. It is also important to educate the medical and nursing staff on the fact that all patients are at risk for developing DVT, not just surgical patients who are often believed to be at the highest risk of DVT. The implementation of the risk factor assessment could potentially save lives and reduce the hospital costs of treating and managing the complications of DVT and venous thromboembolic disease. The cases chosen for review in this article will demonstrate many risk factors that often go overlooked in nonsurgical patients. The implementation of a risk factor assessment tool could potentially aid in the recognition and appropriate prophylaxis of those patients who are at extremely high risk for DVT. Without appropriate recognition of the risk for DVT, patients may be placed at risk for DVT and the potentially fatal and/or debilitating complications associated with the development of DVT.

Evaluating the Risk of Child Abuse: The Child Abuse Risk Assessment Scale (CARAS)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chan, Ko Ling

2012-01-01

The present study developed the Child Abuse Risk Assessment Scale (CARAS), an actuarial instrument for the assessment of the risk of physical child abuse. Data of 2,363 Chinese parents (47.7% male) living in Hong Kong were used in the analyses. Participants were individually interviewed with a questionnaire assessing their perpetration of child…

Chemical Mixtures Health Risk Assessment of Environmental Contaminants: Concepts, Methods, Applications: Handbook

EPA Science Inventory

This problems-based, half-day, introductory workshop focuses on methods to assess health risks posed by exposures to chemical mixtures in the environment. Chemical mixtures health risk assessment methods continue to be developed and evolve to address concerns over health risks f...

Technology Development Risk Assessment for Space Transportation Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mathias, Donovan L.; Godsell, Aga M.; Go, Susie

2006-01-01

A new approach for assessing development risk associated with technology development projects is presented. The method represents technology evolution in terms of sector-specific discrete development stages. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to generate development probability distributions based on statistical models of the discrete transitions. Development risk is derived from the resulting probability distributions and specific program requirements. Two sample cases are discussed to illustrate the approach, a single rocket engine development and a three-technology space transportation portfolio.

Site-Specific Rules for Risk Assessment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tucker, William; And Others

1994-01-01

This article examines the development of regulatory guidance upon which the technology of risk assessment has matured into a decision-making method of choice. It examines in particular the role of site-specific risk assessment at Superfund sites. (LZ)

Assessing the assessments: Pharmaceuticals in the environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Enick, O.V.; Moore, M.M.

2007-11-15

The relatively new issue of pharmaceutical contamination of the environment offers the opportunity to explore the application of values to the construction, communication and management of risk. The still-developing regulatory policies regarding environmental contamination with pharmaceuticals provide fertile ground for the introduction of values into the definition and management of risk. In this report, we summarize the current knowledge regarding pharmaceutical contamination of the environment and discuss specific attributes of pharmaceuticals that require special consideration. We then present an analysis showing that if values are incorporated into assessing, characterizing and managing risk, the results of risk assessments will more accuratelymore » reflect the needs of various stakeholders. Originating from an acknowledgement of the inherent uncertainty and value-laden nature of risk assessment, the precautionary principle (and later, the multi-criteria, integrated risk assessment), provides a direction for further research and policy development.« less

DEVELOPMENT OF TOOLS TO ASSESS THE EFFECTS OF INDIVIDUAL, POPULATION, AND SPATIAL LEVELS: INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF MULTIPLE STRESSORS ON PISCIVOROUS BIRDS

EPA Science Inventory

The goal of the US Environmental Protection Agency's National Health and Environmental Research Laboratory's Wildlife Risk Assessment program is to develop scientifically valid methods to assess risks to wildlife and aquatic organisms from multiple stressors. To this end, the Loo...

[Development of HIV infection risk assessment tool for men who have sex with men based on Delphi method].

PubMed

Li, L L; Jiang, Z; Song, W L; Ding, Y Y; Xu, J; He, N

2017-10-10

Objective: To develop a HIV infection risk assessment tool for men who have sex with men (MSM) based on Delphi method. Methods: After an exhaustive literature review, we used Delphi method to determine the specific items and relative risk scores of the assessment tool through two rounds of specialist consultation and overall consideration of the opinions and suggestions of 17 specialists. Results: The positivity coefficient through first and second round specialist consultation was 100.0 % and 94.1 % , respectively. The mean of authority coefficients ( Cr ) was 0.86. Kendall's W coefficient of the specialist consultation was 0.55 for the first round consultation (χ(2)=84.426, P <0.001) and 0.46 for the second round consultation (χ(2)=65.734, P <0.001), respectively, suggesting that the specialists had similar opinions. The final HIV infection risk assessment tool for MSM has 8 items. Conclusions: The HIV infection risk assessment tool for MSM, developed under the Delphi method, can be used in the evaluation of HIV infection risk in MSM and individualized prevention and intervention. However, the reliability and validity of this risk assessment tool need to be further evaluated.

An approach for integrating toxicogenomic data in risk assessment: The dibutyl phthalate case study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Euling, Susan Y., E-mail: euling.susan@epa.gov; Thompson, Chad M.; Chiu, Weihsueh A.

An approach for evaluating and integrating genomic data in chemical risk assessment was developed based on the lessons learned from performing a case study for the chemical dibutyl phthalate. A case study prototype approach was first developed in accordance with EPA guidance and recommendations of the scientific community. Dibutyl phthalate (DBP) was selected for the case study exercise. The scoping phase of the dibutyl phthalate case study was conducted by considering the available DBP genomic data, taken together with the entire data set, for whether they could inform various risk assessment aspects, such as toxicodynamics, toxicokinetics, and dose–response. A descriptionmore » of weighing the available dibutyl phthalate data set for utility in risk assessment provides an example for considering genomic data for future chemical assessments. As a result of conducting the scoping process, two questions—Do the DBP toxicogenomic data inform 1) the mechanisms or modes of action?, and 2) the interspecies differences in toxicodynamics?—were selected to focus the case study exercise. Principles of the general approach include considering the genomics data in conjunction with all other data to determine their ability to inform the various qualitative and/or quantitative aspects of risk assessment, and evaluating the relationship between the available genomic and toxicity outcome data with respect to study comparability and phenotypic anchoring. Based on experience from the DBP case study, recommendations and a general approach for integrating genomic data in chemical assessment were developed to advance the broader effort to utilize 21st century data in risk assessment. - Highlights: • Performed DBP case study for integrating genomic data in risk assessment • Present approach for considering genomic data in chemical risk assessment • Present recommendations for use of genomic data in chemical risk assessment.« less

42 CFR 81.10 - Use of cancer risk assessment models in NIOSH IREP.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 42 Public Health 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Use of cancer risk assessment models in NIOSH IREP... Risk Models Used To Estimate Probability of Causation § 81.10 Use of cancer risk assessment models in... tables were developed from analyses of cancer mortality risk among the Japanese atomic bomb survivor...

42 CFR 81.10 - Use of cancer risk assessment models in NIOSH IREP.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 42 Public Health 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Use of cancer risk assessment models in NIOSH IREP... Risk Models Used To Estimate Probability of Causation § 81.10 Use of cancer risk assessment models in... tables were developed from analyses of cancer mortality risk among the Japanese atomic bomb survivor...

42 CFR 81.10 - Use of cancer risk assessment models in NIOSH IREP.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 42 Public Health 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Use of cancer risk assessment models in NIOSH IREP... Risk Models Used To Estimate Probability of Causation § 81.10 Use of cancer risk assessment models in... tables were developed from analyses of cancer mortality risk among the Japanese atomic bomb survivor...

42 CFR 81.10 - Use of cancer risk assessment models in NIOSH IREP.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 42 Public Health 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Use of cancer risk assessment models in NIOSH IREP... Risk Models Used To Estimate Probability of Causation § 81.10 Use of cancer risk assessment models in... tables were developed from analyses of cancer mortality risk among the Japanese atomic bomb survivor...

Problem formulation for risk assessment of combined exposures to chemicals and other stressors in humans.

PubMed

Solomon, Keith R; Wilks, Martin F; Bachman, Ammie; Boobis, Alan; Moretto, Angelo; Pastoor, Timothy P; Phillips, Richard; Embry, Michelle R

2016-11-01

When the human health risk assessment/risk management paradigm was developed, it did not explicitly include a "problem formulation" phase. The concept of problem formulation was first introduced in the context of ecological risk assessment (ERA) for the pragmatic reason to constrain and focus ERAs on the key questions. However, this need also exists for human health risk assessment, particularly for cumulative risk assessment (CRA), because of its complexity. CRA encompasses the combined threats to health from exposure via all relevant routes to multiple stressors, including biological, chemical, physical and psychosocial stressors. As part of the HESI Risk Assessment in the 21st Century (RISK21) Project, a framework for CRA was developed in which problem formulation plays a critical role. The focus of this effort is primarily on a chemical CRA (i.e., two or more chemicals) with subsequent consideration of non-chemical stressors, defined as "modulating factors" (ModFs). Problem formulation is a systematic approach that identifies all factors critical to a specific risk assessment and considers the purpose of the assessment, scope and depth of the necessary analysis, analytical approach, available resources and outcomes, and overall risk management goal. There are numerous considerations that are specific to multiple stressors, and proper problem formulation can help to focus a CRA to the key factors in order to optimize resources. As part of the problem formulation, conceptual models for exposures and responses can be developed that address these factors, such as temporal relationships between stressors and consideration of the appropriate ModFs.

[Investigation into the capacity for risk identification, assessment, and mitigation in managing public health emergencies in China].

PubMed

Hu, Guo-qing; Rao, Ke-qin; Sun, Zhen-qiu

2007-08-01

To investigate the capacity for risk identification, assessment, and mitigation in public health emergency management in China. Four provinces were randomly selected using stratified sampling. All the municipalities under these four provinces were assessed using the 3rd subscale (Risk Identification, Risk Assessment, and Risk Mitigation) of Preparedness and Response Capacity Questionnaire for Public Health Emergencies Used in Provincial or Municipal Governments, which was developed by the Center for Health Statistics and Information, Ministry of Health of the People's Republic of China. Sixty of 66 questionnaires (90.91%) were collected. Among 60 investigated municipalities, 35 (58%) identified the potential public health emergencies, 17 (28%) assessed the risks for the identified emergencies, and 5 (8%) conducted risk assessments for the locally accident-prone factories, mines, corporations, and big establishments, 6 (10%) identified the priorities in public health emergency management based on risk assessment, 6 (10%) developed special prevention strategies for main public health emergencies, 3 (5%) assessed the vulnerability of local residents to public health emergencies, and 34 (57%) assessed or were assessing the preparedness and response capacity for public health emergencies in the past 2 years. The mean of standard total score for risk identification, assessment, and mitigation was 24.05 (95% CI: 18.32, 29.77). Risk identification, assessment, and mitigation still require further improvement in China, and both the central and local authorities should implement more effective and efficient measures.

Towards an integrated approach to natural hazards risk assessment using GIS: with reference to bushfires.

PubMed

Chen, Keping; Blong, Russell; Jacobson, Carol

2003-04-01

This paper develops a GIS-based integrated approach to risk assessment in natural hazards, with reference to bushfires. The challenges for undertaking this approach have three components: data integration, risk assessment tasks, and risk decision-making. First, data integration in GIS is a fundamental step for subsequent risk assessment tasks and risk decision-making. A series of spatial data integration issues within GIS such as geographical scales and data models are addressed. Particularly, the integration of both physical environmental data and socioeconomic data is examined with an example linking remotely sensed data and areal census data in GIS. Second, specific risk assessment tasks, such as hazard behavior simulation and vulnerability assessment, should be undertaken in order to understand complex hazard risks and provide support for risk decision-making. For risk assessment tasks involving heterogeneous data sources, the selection of spatial analysis units is important. Third, risk decision-making concerns spatial preferences and/or patterns, and a multicriteria evaluation (MCE)-GIS typology for risk decision-making is presented that incorporates three perspectives: spatial data types, data models, and methods development. Both conventional MCE methods and artificial intelligence-based methods with GIS are identified to facilitate spatial risk decision-making in a rational and interpretable way. Finally, the paper concludes that the integrated approach can be used to assist risk management of natural hazards, in theory and in practice.

Development of an Ergonomics Checklist for Investigation of Work-Related Whole-Body Disorders in Farming - AWBA: Agricultural Whole-Body Assessment.

PubMed

Kong, Y K; Lee, S J; Lee, K S; Kim, G R; Kim, D M

2015-10-01

Researchers have been using various ergonomic tools to study occupational musculoskeletal diseases in industrial contexts. However, in agricultural work, where the work environment is poorer and the socio-psychological stress is high due to the high labor intensities of the industry, current research efforts have been scarce, and the number of available tools is small. In our preliminary studies, which focused on a limited number of body parts and other working elements, we developed separate evaluation tools for the upper and lower extremities. The current study was conducted to develop a whole-body ergonomic assessment tool for agricultural work that integrates the existing assessment tools for lower and upper extremities developed in the preliminary studies and to verify the relevance of the integrated assessment tool. To verify the relevance of the Agricultural Whole-Body Assessment (AWBA) tool, we selected 50 different postures that occur frequently in agricultural work. Our results showed that the AWBA-determined risk levels were similar to the subjective risk levels determined by experts. In addition, as the risk level increased, the average risk level increased to a similar extent. Moreover, the differences in risk levels between the AWBA and expert assessments were mostly smaller than the differences in risk levels between other assessment tools and the expert assessments in this study. In conclusion, the AWBA tool developed in this study was demonstrated to be appropriate for use as a tool for assessing various postures commonly assumed in agricultural work. Moreover, we believe that our verification of the assessment tools will contribute to the enhancement of the quality of activities designed to prevent and control work-related musculoskeletal diseases in other industries.

Development of a risk assessment tool for projecting individualized probabilities of developing breast cancer for Chinese women.

PubMed

Wang, Yuan; Gao, Ying; Battsend, Munkhzul; Chen, Kexin; Lu, Wenli; Wang, Yaogang

2014-11-01

The optimal approach regarding breast cancer screening for Chinese women is unclear due to the relative low incidence rate. A risk assessment tool may be useful for selection of high-risk subsets of population for mammography screening in low-incidence and resource-limited developing country. The odd ratios for six main risk factors of breast cancer were pooled by review manager after a systematic research of literature. Health risk appraisal (HRA) model was developed to predict an individual's risk of developing breast cancer in the next 5 years from current age. The performance of this HRA model was assessed based on a first-round screening database. Estimated risk of breast cancer increased with age. Increases in the 5-year risk of developing breast cancer were found with the existence of any of included risk factors. When individuals who had risk above median risk (3.3‰) were selected from the validation database, the sensitivity is 60.0% and the specificity is 47.8%. The unweighted area under the curve (AUC) was 0.64 (95% CI = 0.50-0.78). The risk-prediction model reported in this article is based on a combination of risk factors and shows good overall predictive power, but it is still weak at predicting which particular women will develop the disease. It would be very helpful for the improvement of a current model if more population-based prospective follow-up studies were used for the validation.

Improving the use of crop models for risk assessment and climate change adaptation.

PubMed

Challinor, Andrew J; Müller, Christoph; Asseng, Senthold; Deva, Chetan; Nicklin, Kathryn Jane; Wallach, Daniel; Vanuytrecht, Eline; Whitfield, Stephen; Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Koehler, Ann-Kristin

2018-01-01

Crop models are used for an increasingly broad range of applications, with a commensurate proliferation of methods. Careful framing of research questions and development of targeted and appropriate methods are therefore increasingly important. In conjunction with the other authors in this special issue, we have developed a set of criteria for use of crop models in assessments of impacts, adaptation and risk. Our analysis drew on the other papers in this special issue, and on our experience in the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017 and the MACSUR, AgMIP and ISIMIP projects. The criteria were used to assess how improvements could be made to the framing of climate change risks, and to outline the good practice and new developments that are needed to improve risk assessment. Key areas of good practice include: i. the development, running and documentation of crop models, with attention given to issues of spatial scale and complexity; ii. the methods used to form crop-climate ensembles, which can be based on model skill and/or spread; iii. the methods used to assess adaptation, which need broadening to account for technological development and to reflect the full range options available. The analysis highlights the limitations of focussing only on projections of future impacts and adaptation options using pre-determined time slices. Whilst this long-standing approach may remain an essential component of risk assessments, we identify three further key components: 1.Working with stakeholders to identify the timing of risks. What are the key vulnerabilities of food systems and what does crop-climate modelling tell us about when those systems are at risk?2.Use of multiple methods that critically assess the use of climate model output and avoid any presumption that analyses should begin and end with gridded output.3.Increasing transparency and inter-comparability in risk assessments. Whilst studies frequently produce ranges that quantify uncertainty, the assumptions underlying these ranges are not always clear. We suggest that the contingency of results upon assumptions is made explicit via a common uncertainty reporting format; and/or that studies are assessed against a set of criteria, such as those presented in this paper.

Human Health Risk Assessment (HHRA) for environmental development and transfer of antibiotic resistance.

PubMed

Ashbolt, Nicholas J; Amézquita, Alejandro; Backhaus, Thomas; Borriello, Peter; Brandt, Kristian K; Collignon, Peter; Coors, Anja; Finley, Rita; Gaze, William H; Heberer, Thomas; Lawrence, John R; Larsson, D G Joakim; McEwen, Scott A; Ryan, James J; Schönfeld, Jens; Silley, Peter; Snape, Jason R; Van den Eede, Christel; Topp, Edward

2013-09-01

Only recently has the environment been clearly implicated in the risk of antibiotic resistance to clinical outcome, but to date there have been few documented approaches to formally assess these risks. We examined possible approaches and sought to identify research needs to enable human health risk assessments (HHRA) that focus on the role of the environment in the failure of antibiotic treatment caused by antibiotic-resistant pathogens. The authors participated in a workshop held 4-8 March 2012 in Québec, Canada, to define the scope and objectives of an environmental assessment of antibiotic-resistance risks to human health. We focused on key elements of environmental-resistance-development "hot spots," exposure assessment (unrelated to food), and dose response to characterize risks that may improve antibiotic-resistance management options. Various novel aspects to traditional risk assessments were identified to enable an assessment of environmental antibiotic resistance. These include a) accounting for an added selective pressure on the environmental resistome that, over time, allows for development of antibiotic-resistant bacteria (ARB); b) identifying and describing rates of horizontal gene transfer (HGT) in the relevant environmental "hot spot" compartments; and c) modifying traditional dose-response approaches to address doses of ARB for various health outcomes and pathways. We propose that environmental aspects of antibiotic-resistance development be included in the processes of any HHRA addressing ARB. Because of limited available data, a multicriteria decision analysis approach would be a useful way to undertake an HHRA of environmental antibiotic resistance that informs risk managers.

Risk assessment of pesticides and other stressors in bees: Principles, data gaps and perspectives from the European Food Safety Authority.

PubMed

Rortais, Agnès; Arnold, Gérard; Dorne, Jean-Lou; More, Simon J; Sperandio, Giorgio; Streissl, Franz; Szentes, Csaba; Verdonck, Frank

2017-06-01

Current approaches to risk assessment in bees do not take into account co-exposures from multiple stressors. The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) is deploying resources and efforts to move towards a holistic risk assessment approach of multiple stressors in bees. This paper describes the general principles of pesticide risk assessment in bees, including recent developments at EFSA dealing with risk assessment of single and multiple pesticide residues and biological hazards. The EFSA Guidance Document on the risk assessment of plant protection products in bees highlights the need for the inclusion of an uncertainty analysis, other routes of exposures and multiple stressors such as chemical mixtures and biological agents. The EFSA risk assessment on the survival, spread and establishment of the small hive beetle, Aethina tumida, an invasive alien species, is provided with potential insights for other bee pests such as the Asian hornet, Vespa velutina. Furthermore, data gaps are identified at each step of the risk assessment, and recommendations are made for future research that could be supported under the framework of Horizon 2020. Finally, the recent work conducted at EFSA is presented, under the overarching MUST-B project ("EU efforts towards the development of a holistic approach for the risk assessment on MUltiple STressors in Bees") comprising a toolbox for harmonised data collection under field conditions and a mechanistic model to assess effects from pesticides and other stressors such as biological agents and beekeeping management practices, at the colony level and in a spatially complex landscape. Future perspectives at EFSA include the development of a data model to collate high quality data to calibrate and validate the model to be used as a regulatory tool. Finally, the evidence collected within the framework of MUST-B will support EFSA's activities on the development of a holistic approach to the risk assessment of multiple stressors in bees. In conclusion, EFSA calls for collaborative action at the EU level to establish a common and open access database to serve multiple purposes and different stakeholders. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk assessment of vector-borne diseases for public health governance.

PubMed

Sedda, L; Morley, D W; Braks, M A H; De Simone, L; Benz, D; Rogers, D J

2014-12-01

In the context of public health, risk governance (or risk analysis) is a framework for the assessment and subsequent management and/or control of the danger posed by an identified disease threat. Generic frameworks in which to carry out risk assessment have been developed by various agencies. These include monitoring, data collection, statistical analysis and dissemination. Due to the inherent complexity of disease systems, however, the generic approach must be modified for individual, disease-specific risk assessment frameworks. The analysis was based on the review of the current risk assessments of vector-borne diseases adopted by the main Public Health organisations (OIE, WHO, ECDC, FAO, CDC etc…). Literature, legislation and statistical assessment of the risk analysis frameworks. This review outlines the need for the development of a general public health risk assessment method for vector-borne diseases, in order to guarantee that sufficient information is gathered to apply robust models of risk assessment. Stochastic (especially spatial) methods, often in Bayesian frameworks are now gaining prominence in standard risk assessment procedures because of their ability to assess accurately model uncertainties. Risk assessment needs to be addressed quantitatively wherever possible, and submitted with its quality assessment in order to enable successful public health measures to be adopted. In terms of current practice, often a series of different models and analyses are applied to the same problem, with results and outcomes that are difficult to compare because of the unknown model and data uncertainties. Therefore, the risk assessment areas in need of further research are identified in this article. Copyright © 2014 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of Improved Caprock Integrity and Risk Assessment Techniques

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bruno, Michael

GeoMechanics Technologies has completed a geomechanical caprock integrity analysis and risk assessment study funded through the US Department of Energy. The project included: a detailed review of historical caprock integrity problems experienced in the natural gas storage industry; a theoretical description and documentation of caprock integrity issues; advanced coupled transport flow modelling and geomechanical simulation of three large-scale potential geologic sequestration sites to estimate geomechanical effects from CO₂ injection; development of a quantitative risk and decision analysis tool to assess caprock integrity risks; and, ultimately the development of recommendations and guidelines for caprock characterization and CO₂ injection operating practices. Historicalmore » data from gas storage operations and CO₂ sequestration projects suggest that leakage and containment incident risks are on the order of 10-1 to 10-2, which is higher risk than some previous studies have suggested for CO₂. Geomechanical analysis, as described herein, can be applied to quantify risks and to provide operating guidelines to reduce risks. The risk assessment tool developed for this project has been applied to five areas: The Wilmington Graben offshore Southern California, Kevin Dome in Montana, the Louden Field in Illinois, the Sleipner CO₂ sequestration operation in the North Sea, and the In Salah CO₂ sequestration operation in North Africa. Of these five, the Wilmington Graben area represents the highest relative risk while the Kevin Dome area represents the lowest relative risk.« less

BIG DARBY CREEK WATERSHED

EPA Science Inventory

What is an ecological risk assessment?

Middle Platte River Watershed

EPA Science Inventory

What is an ecological risk assessment?

An ecological risk assessment evaluates the potential adverse effects of human activities on the plants and animals that make up ecosystems. The risk assessment process provides a way to develop, organize and present sc...

INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT - RESULTS FROM AN INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP

EPA Science Inventory

The WHO International Programme on Chemical Safety and international partners have developed a framework for integrated assessment of human health and ecological risks and four case studies. An international workshop was convened to consider how ecological and health risk assess...

Strategic Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

2009-01-01

This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

Catchment scale assessment of risk posed by traffic generated heavy metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons.

PubMed

Ma, Yukun; McGree, James; Liu, An; Deilami, Kaveh; Egodawatta, Prasanna; Goonetilleke, Ashantha

2017-10-01

Heavy metals (HMs) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are among the most toxic chemical pollutants present in urban stormwater. Consequently, urban stormwater reuse is constrained due to the human health risk posed by these pollutants. This study developed a scientifically robust approach to assess the risk to human health posed by HMs and PAHs in urban stormwater in order to enhance its reuse. Accordingly, an innovative methodology was created consisting of four stages: quantification of traffic and land use parameters; estimation of pollutant concentrations for model development; risk assessment, and risk map presentation. This methodology will contribute to catchment scale assessment of the risk associated with urban stormwater and for risk mitigation. The risk map developed provides a simple and efficient approach to identify the critical areas within a large catchment. The study also found that heavy molecular weight PAHs (PAHs with 5-6 benzene rings) in urban stormwater pose higher risk to human health compared to light molecular PAHs (PAHs with 2-4 benzene rings). These outcomes will facilitate the development of practical approaches for applying appropriate mitigation measures for the safe management of urban stormwater pollution and for the identification of enhanced reuse opportunities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Environmental Assessment/Baseline Survey to Establish New Drop Zone (DZ) in Cadiz, Ohio

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-01

Force, along with other available information, to: • Develop sufficient information to assess the health and safety risks on the property surveyed and...Environmental Health Risks and Safety Risks . This EO directs federal agencies to identify and assess environmental health and safety risks that may...or prediction or forecast of, any environmental risk for any property. Only a Phase I Environmental Site Assessment performed by an environmental

Comparison of risk assessment procedures used in OCRA and ULRA methods

PubMed Central

Roman-Liu, Danuta; Groborz, Anna; Tokarski, Tomasz

2013-01-01

The aim of this study was to analyse the convergence of two methods by comparing exposure and the assessed risk of developing musculoskeletal disorders at 18 repetitive task workstations. The already established occupational repetitive actions (OCRA) and the recently developed upper limb risk assessment (ULRA) produce correlated results (R = 0.84, p = 0.0001). A discussion of the factors that influence the values of the OCRA index and ULRA's repetitive task indicator shows that both similarities and differences in the results produced by the two methods can arise from the concepts that underlie them. The assessment procedure and mathematical calculations that the basic parameters are subjected to are crucial to the results of risk assessment. The way the basic parameters are defined influences the assessment of exposure and risk assessment to a lesser degree. The analysis also proved that not always do great differences in load indicator values result in differences in risk zones. Practitioner Summary: We focused on comparing methods that, even though based on different concepts, serve the same purpose. The results proved that different methods with different assumptions can produce similar assessment of upper limb load; sharp criteria in risk assessment are not the best solution. PMID:24041375

Framework for Shared Drinking Water Risk Assessment.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Tidwell, Vincent C.; Peplinski, William John

Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for threemore » water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.« less

Risk assessment in the North Caucasus ski resorts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komarov, Anton Y.; Seliverstov, Yury G.; Glazovskaya, Tatyana G.; Turchaninova, Alla S.

2016-10-01

Avalanches pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of Russia. The constant growth of economic activity, and therefore the increased avalanche hazard, in the North Caucasus region lead to demand for the development of large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments.The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of the Russian Federation (Federal Law 21.12.1994 N 68-FZ, 2016). However, Russian guidelines (SNIP 11-02-96, 2013; SNIP 22-02-2003, 2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. Thus, we discuss these problems by presenting a new avalanche risk assessment approach, with the example of developing but poorly researched ski resort areas. The suggested method includes the formulas to calculate collective and individual avalanche risk. The results of risk analysis are shown in quantitative data that can be used to determine levels of avalanche risk (appropriate, acceptable and inappropriate) and to suggest methods to decrease the individual risk to an acceptable level or better. The analysis makes it possible to compare risk quantitative data obtained from different regions, analyze them and evaluate the economic feasibility of protection measures.

Methods Development for a Spatially Explicit Population-Level Risk Assessment, Uncertainty Analysis, and Comparison with Risk Quotient Approaches

EPA Science Inventory

The standard framework of Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) uses organism-level assessment endpoints to qualitatively determine the risk to populations. While organism-level toxicity data provide the pathway by which a species may be affected by a chemical stressor, they neither i...

Cheese Microbial Risk Assessments — A Review

PubMed Central

Choi, Kyoung-Hee; Lee, Heeyoung; Lee, Soomin; Kim, Sejeong; Yoon, Yohan

2016-01-01

Cheese is generally considered a safe and nutritious food, but foodborne illnesses linked to cheese consumption have occurred in many countries. Several microbial risk assessments related to Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli infections, causing cheese-related foodborne illnesses, have been conducted. Although the assessments of microbial risk in soft and low moisture cheeses such as semi-hard and hard cheeses have been accomplished, it has been more focused on the correlations between pathogenic bacteria and soft cheese, because cheese-associated foodborne illnesses have been attributed to the consumption of soft cheeses. As a part of this microbial risk assessment, predictive models have been developed to describe the relationship between several factors (pH, Aw, starter culture, and time) and the fates of foodborne pathogens in cheese. Predictions from these studies have been used for microbial risk assessment as a part of exposure assessment. These microbial risk assessments have identified that risk increased in cheese with high moisture content, especially for raw milk cheese, but the risk can be reduced by preharvest and postharvest preventions. For accurate quantitative microbial risk assessment, more data including interventions such as curd cooking conditions (temperature and time) and ripening period should be available for predictive models developed with cheese, cheese consumption amounts and cheese intake frequency data as well as more dose-response models. PMID:26950859

Monitoring At-Risk Infant and Toddler Development: A Transdisciplinary Approach.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Costarides, Anna H.; Shulman, Brian B.; Trimm, R. Franklin; Brady, Nancy R.

1998-01-01

Describes the evolution of a transdisciplinary team for assessing infants and toddlers identified as at-risk for developmental delay. The assessment process is outlined and includes information on instruments used in assessing the cognitive, language, and motor development of infants and toddlers. Obstacles encountered with families and methods…

Smarten

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metcalfe, C.; Bennett, E.; Chappell, M.; Steevens, J.; Depledge, M.; Goss, G.; Goudey, S.; Kaczmar, S.; O'Brien, N.; Picado, A.; Ramadan, A. B.

Traditional risk assessment procedures are inadequate for predicting the ecological risks associated with the release of nanomaterials (NM) into the environment. The root of the problem lies in an inadequate application of solid phase chemical principles (e.g. particle size, shape, functionality) for the risk assessment of NMs. Thus, the "solubility" paradigm used to evaluate the risks associated with other classes of contaminants must be replaced by a "dispersivity" paradigm for evaluating the risks associated with NM. The pace of development of NM will exceed the capacity to conduct adequate risk assessments using current methods and approaches. Each NM product will be available in a variety of size classes and with different surface functionalizations; probably requiring multiple risk assessments for each NM. The "SMARTEN" approach to risk assessment involves having risk assessors play a more proactive role in evaluating all aspects of the NM life cycle and in making decisions to develop lower risk NM products. Improved problem formulation could come from considering the chemical, physical and biological properties of NMs. New effects assessment techniques are needed to evaluate cellular binding and uptake potential, such as biological assays for binding to macromolecules or organelles, phagocytic activity, and active/passive uptake processes. Tests should be developed to evaluate biological effects with multiple species across a range of trophic levels. Despite our best efforts to assess the risks associated with NM, previous experience indicates that some NM products will enter the environment and cause biological effects. Therefore, risk assessors should support programs for reconnaissance and surveillance to detect the impacts of NM before irreversible damage occurs. New analytical tools are needed for surveillance, including sensors for detecting NMs, passive sampling systems, and improved methods for separation and characterization of NMs in environmental matrices, as well as biomarker techniques to evaluate exposure to NMs. Risk assessors should use this information to refine data quality, determine future risk assessment objectives and to communicate interim conclusions to a wide group of stakeholders.1

24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35.315 Housing and Urban Development Office of the Secretary, Department of Housing and Urban Development LEAD-BASED PAINT POISONING PREVENTION IN CERTAIN RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES Project-Based Assistance...

24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35.315 Housing and Urban Development Office of the Secretary, Department of Housing and Urban Development LEAD-BASED PAINT POISONING PREVENTION IN CERTAIN RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES Project-Based Assistance...

24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35.315 Housing and Urban Development Office of the Secretary, Department of Housing and Urban Development LEAD-BASED PAINT POISONING PREVENTION IN CERTAIN RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES Project-Based Assistance...

24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35.315 Housing and Urban Development Office of the Secretary, Department of Housing and Urban Development LEAD-BASED PAINT POISONING PREVENTION IN CERTAIN RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES Project-Based Assistance...

24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35.315 Housing and Urban Development Office of the Secretary, Department of Housing and Urban Development LEAD-BASED PAINT POISONING PREVENTION IN CERTAIN RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES Project-Based Assistance...

[Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

PubMed

Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

2014-03-01

With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

Development and Validation of a Video Measure for Assessing Women’s Risk Perception for Alcohol-Related Sexual Assault

PubMed Central

Parks, Kathleen A.; Levonyan-Radloff, Kristine; Dearing, Ronda L.; Hequembourg, Amy; Testa, Maria

2016-01-01

Objective Using an iterative process, a series of three video scenarios were developed for use as a standardized measure for assessing women’s perception of risks for alcohol-related sexual assault (SA). The videos included ambiguous and clear behavioral and environmental risk cues. Method Focus group discussions with young, female heavy drinkers (N = 42) were used to develop three videos at different risk levels (low, moderate, and high) in Study 1. Realism, reliability, and validity of the videos were assessed using multiple methods in Studies 2 and 3. One hundred-four women were used to compare differences in risk perception across the video risk level in Study 2. In Study 3 (N = 60), we assessed women’s perceptions of the low and high risk videos under conditions of no alcohol and alcohol. Results The realism and reliability of the videos were good. Women who viewed the low risk video compared to women who viewed the moderate and high risk videos perceived less risk for SA. We found an interaction between alcohol and risk perception such that, women in the alcohol condition were less likely to perceive risk when watching the high risk video. Conclusions As the video risk level increased, women’s perception of risk increased. These findings provide convergent evidence for the validity of the video measure. Given the limited number of standardized scenarios for assessing risk perception for sexual assault, our findings suggest that these videos may provide a needed standardized measure. PMID:27747131

Assessment Tools for the Evaluation of Risk

EPA Science Inventory

ASTER (Assessment Tools for the Evaluation of Risk) was developed by the U.S. EPA Mid-Continent Ecology Division, Duluth, MN to assist regulators in performing ecological risk assessments. ASTER is an integration of the ECOTOXicology Database (ECOTOX; Rapid Response Risk Assessment in New Project Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Graber, Robert R.

2010-01-01

A capability for rapidly performing quantitative risk assessments has been developed by JSC Safety and Mission Assurance for use on project design trade studies early in the project life cycle, i.e., concept development through preliminary design phases. A risk assessment tool set has been developed consisting of interactive and integrated software modules that allow a user/project designer to assess the impact of alternative design or programmatic options on the probability of mission success or other risk metrics. The risk and design trade space includes interactive options for selecting parameters and/or metrics for numerous design characteristics including component reliability characteristics, functional redundancy levels, item or system technology readiness levels, and mission event characteristics. This capability is intended for use on any project or system development with a defined mission, and an example project will used for demonstration and descriptive purposes, e.g., landing a robot on the moon. The effects of various alternative design considerations and their impact of these decisions on mission success (or failure) can be measured in real time on a personal computer. This capability provides a high degree of efficiency for quickly providing information in NASA s evolving risk-based decision environment

INDOOR AIR ASSESSMENT - A REVIEW OF INDOOR AIR QUALITY RISK CHARACTERIZATION

EPA Science Inventory

Risk assessment methodologies provide a mechanism for incorporating scientific evidence and Judgments Into the risk management decision process. isk characterization framework has been developed to provide a systematic approach for analysis and presentation of risk characterizati...

Field application of farm-food safety risk assessment (FRAMp) tool for small and medium fresh produce farms.

PubMed

Soon, J M; Davies, W P; Chadd, S A; Baines, R N

2013-02-15

The objective of this study was to develop a farm food safety-risk assessment tool (FRAMp) which serves as a self-assessment and educational tool for fresh produce farms. FRAMp was developed in Microsoft® Excel spreadsheet software using standard mathematical and logical functions and utilised a qualitative risk assessment approach for farmers to evaluate their food safety practices. The FRAMp tool has since been tested on 12 fresh produce farms throughout UK. All the farms determined that FRAMp was interesting but 17% found it too long while 25% of the farms felt the tool was too complicated. The instructions on FRAMp usage were revised and farmers were given the options to skip and select specific steps in the farm risk assessment. The end users (farmers/farm managers) determined that developing their own action plans and using it as proof of assessment for future third-party audits were most useful to them. FRAMp tool can be described as an illustrative risk ranking tool to facilitate farms to identify potential risk factors during their crop production. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Method for Evaluating Competency in Assessment and Management of Suicide Risk

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hung, Erick K.; Binder, Renee L.; Fordwood, Samantha R.; Hall, Stephen E.; Cramer, Robert J.; McNiel, Dale E.

2012-01-01

Objective: Although health professionals increasingly are expected to be able to assess and manage patients' risk for suicide, few methods are available to evaluate this competency. This report describes development of a competency-assessment instrument for suicide risk-assessment (CAI-S), and evaluates its use in an objective structured clinical…

A review of multi-risk methodologies for natural hazards: Consequences and challenges for a climate change impact assessment.

PubMed

Gallina, Valentina; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Sperotto, Anna; Glade, Thomas; Marcomini, Antonio

2016-03-01

This paper presents a review of existing multi-risk assessment concepts and tools applied by organisations and projects providing the basis for the development of a multi-risk methodology in a climate change perspective. Relevant initiatives were developed for the assessment of multiple natural hazards (e.g. floods, storm surges, droughts) affecting the same area in a defined timeframe (e.g. year, season, decade). Major research efforts were focused on the identification and aggregation of multiple hazard types (e.g. independent, correlated, cascading hazards) by means of quantitative and semi-quantitative approaches. Moreover, several methodologies aim to assess the vulnerability of multiple targets to specific natural hazards by means of vulnerability functions and indicators at the regional and local scale. The overall results of the review show that multi-risk approaches do not consider the effects of climate change and mostly rely on the analysis of static vulnerability (i.e. no time-dependent vulnerabilities, no changes among exposed elements). A relevant challenge is therefore to develop comprehensive formal approaches for the assessment of different climate-induced hazards and risks, including dynamic exposure and vulnerability. This requires the selection and aggregation of suitable hazard and vulnerability metrics to make a synthesis of information about multiple climate impacts, the spatial analysis and ranking of risks, including their visualization and communication to end-users. To face these issues, climate impact assessors should develop cross-sectorial collaborations among different expertise (e.g. modellers, natural scientists, economists) integrating information on climate change scenarios with sectorial climate impact assessment, towards the development of a comprehensive multi-risk assessment process. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

ROBIS: A new tool to assess risk of bias in systematic reviews was developed.

PubMed

Whiting, Penny; Savović, Jelena; Higgins, Julian P T; Caldwell, Deborah M; Reeves, Barnaby C; Shea, Beverley; Davies, Philippa; Kleijnen, Jos; Churchill, Rachel

2016-01-01

To develop ROBIS, a new tool for assessing the risk of bias in systematic reviews (rather than in primary studies). We used four-stage approach to develop ROBIS: define the scope, review the evidence base, hold a face-to-face meeting, and refine the tool through piloting. ROBIS is currently aimed at four broad categories of reviews mainly within health care settings: interventions, diagnosis, prognosis, and etiology. The target audience of ROBIS is primarily guideline developers, authors of overviews of systematic reviews ("reviews of reviews"), and review authors who might want to assess or avoid risk of bias in their reviews. The tool is completed in three phases: (1) assess relevance (optional), (2) identify concerns with the review process, and (3) judge risk of bias. Phase 2 covers four domains through which bias may be introduced into a systematic review: study eligibility criteria; identification and selection of studies; data collection and study appraisal; and synthesis and findings. Phase 3 assesses the overall risk of bias in the interpretation of review findings and whether this considered limitations identified in any of the phase 2 domains. Signaling questions are included to help judge concerns with the review process (phase 2) and the overall risk of bias in the review (phase 3); these questions flag aspects of review design related to the potential for bias and aim to help assessors judge risk of bias in the review process, results, and conclusions. ROBIS is the first rigorously developed tool designed specifically to assess the risk of bias in systematic reviews. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

ROBIS: A new tool to assess risk of bias in systematic reviews was developed

PubMed Central

Whiting, Penny; Savović, Jelena; Higgins, Julian P.T.; Caldwell, Deborah M.; Reeves, Barnaby C.; Shea, Beverley; Davies, Philippa; Kleijnen, Jos; Churchill, Rachel

2016-01-01

Objective To develop ROBIS, a new tool for assessing the risk of bias in systematic reviews (rather than in primary studies). Study Design and Setting We used four-stage approach to develop ROBIS: define the scope, review the evidence base, hold a face-to-face meeting, and refine the tool through piloting. Results ROBIS is currently aimed at four broad categories of reviews mainly within health care settings: interventions, diagnosis, prognosis, and etiology. The target audience of ROBIS is primarily guideline developers, authors of overviews of systematic reviews (“reviews of reviews”), and review authors who might want to assess or avoid risk of bias in their reviews. The tool is completed in three phases: (1) assess relevance (optional), (2) identify concerns with the review process, and (3) judge risk of bias. Phase 2 covers four domains through which bias may be introduced into a systematic review: study eligibility criteria; identification and selection of studies; data collection and study appraisal; and synthesis and findings. Phase 3 assesses the overall risk of bias in the interpretation of review findings and whether this considered limitations identified in any of the phase 2 domains. Signaling questions are included to help judge concerns with the review process (phase 2) and the overall risk of bias in the review (phase 3); these questions flag aspects of review design related to the potential for bias and aim to help assessors judge risk of bias in the review process, results, and conclusions. Conclusions ROBIS is the first rigorously developed tool designed specifically to assess the risk of bias in systematic reviews. PMID:26092286

Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

PubMed

2012-01-01

Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

A Programme for Risk Assessment and Minimisation of Progressive Multifocal Leukoencephalopathy Developed for Vedolizumab Clinical Trials.

PubMed

Parikh, Asit; Stephens, Kristin; Major, Eugene; Fox, Irving; Milch, Catherine; Sankoh, Serap; Lev, Michael H; Provenzale, James M; Shick, Jesse; Patti, Mark; McAuliffe, Megan; Berger, Joseph R; Clifford, David B

2018-05-08

Over the past decade, the potential for drug-associated progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML) has become an increasingly important consideration in certain drug development programmes, particularly those of immunomodulatory biologics. Whether the risk of PML with an investigational agent is proven (e.g. extrapolated from relevant experience, such as a class effect) or merely theoretical, the serious consequences of acquiring PML require careful risk minimisation and assessment. No single standard for such risk minimisation exists. Vedolizumab is a recently developed monoclonal antibody to α4β7 integrin. Its clinical development necessitated a dedicated PML risk minimisation assessment as part of a global preapproval regulatory requirement. The aim of this study was to describe the multiple risk minimisation elements that were incorporated in vedolizumab clinical trials in inflammatory bowel disease patients as part of the risk assessment and minimisation of PML programme for vedolizumab. A case evaluation algorithm was developed for sequential screening and diagnostic evaluation of subjects who met criteria that indicated a clinical suspicion of PML. An Independent Adjudication Committee provided an independent, unbiased opinion regarding the likelihood of PML. Although no cases were detected, all suspected PML events were thoroughly reviewed and successfully adjudicated, making it unlikely that cases were missed. We suggest that this programme could serve as a model for pragmatic screening for PML during the clinical development of new drugs.

Validation of Pre-operative Patient Self-Assessment of Cardiac Risk for Non-Cardiac Surgery: Foundations for Decision Support

PubMed Central

Manaktala, Sharad; Rockwood, Todd; Adam, Terrence J.

2013-01-01

Objectives: To better characterize patient understanding of their risk of cardiac complications from non-cardiac surgery and to develop a patient driven clinical decision support system for preoperative patient risk management. Methods: A patient-driven preoperative self-assessment decision support tool for perioperative assessment was created. Patient’ self-perception of cardiac risk and self-report data for risk factors were compared with gold standard preoperative physician assessment to evaluate agreement. Results: The patient generated cardiac risk profile was used for risk score generation and had excellent agreement with the expert physician assessment. However, patient subjective self-perception risk of cardiovascular complications had poor agreement with expert assessment. Conclusion: A patient driven cardiac risk assessment tool provides a high degree of agreement with expert provider assessment demonstrating clinical feasibility. The limited agreement between provider risk assessment and patient self-perception underscores a need for further work including focused preoperative patient education on cardiac risk. PMID:24551384

Operationalizing the assessment and management of violence risk in the short-term.

PubMed

Doyle, Michael; Logan, Caroline

2012-01-01

Assessing risk of violence in the short term is crucial for managing and preventing violence, especially in institutions such as psychiatric units and prisons. Despite a lack of consensus on the definition of "short term", a number of recent tools and guidelines have been developed to aid short-term clinical decision-making. Whereas the supporting evidence for the new tools is impressive, limitations remain in terms of the focus on prediction, limited consideration of strengths, and poor integration with formulation and risk management. The Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) is a brief clinical guide for the dynamic assessment of risks, strengths and treatability. It focuses on short-term risks and the characteristics of the individual that, if changed, might lead to an increase or decrease in risk. The START has the potential to operationalize the structured professional judgment (SPJ) approach in order to inform the evaluation of multiple risk domains relevant to everyday psychiatric clinical practice. However, explicit guidance on integrating risk assessment, formulation and management is limited in the START and this paper describes the SPJ approach, reviews recent developments in approaches to risk, and considers how the START can be used to inform SPJ approaches and link risk assessment, formulation, and management. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Assessing health risks of synthetic vitreous fibers: an integrative approach.

PubMed

McClellan, R O

1994-12-01

This paper reviews a tiered approach to acquiring information from multiple experimental systems to understand and assess the potential human health risks of exposure to airborne synthetic fibers. The approach is grounded in the now widely accepted research-risk assessment-risk management paradigm. It involves the acquisition of information that will provide mechanistic linkages within the exposure-dose-response paradigm. It advocates the use of the inhalation route of exposure for developing relevant information for assessing human health risks and calls attention to serious problems encountered using nonphysiologic routes of administration to assess human health risks.

A Pilot Study on Developing a Standardized and Sensitive School Violence Risk Assessment with Manual Annotation.

PubMed

Barzman, Drew H; Ni, Yizhao; Griffey, Marcus; Patel, Bianca; Warren, Ashaki; Latessa, Edward; Sorter, Michael

2017-09-01

School violence has increased over the past decade and innovative, sensitive, and standardized approaches to assess school violence risk are needed. In our current feasibility study, we initialized a standardized, sensitive, and rapid school violence risk approach with manual annotation. Manual annotation is the process of analyzing a student's transcribed interview to extract relevant information (e.g., key words) to school violence risk levels that are associated with students' behaviors, attitudes, feelings, use of technology (social media and video games), and other activities. In this feasibility study, we first implemented school violence risk assessments to evaluate risk levels by interviewing the student and parent separately at the school or the hospital to complete our novel school safety scales. We completed 25 risk assessments, resulting in 25 transcribed interviews of 12-18 year olds from 15 schools in Ohio and Kentucky. We then analyzed structured professional judgments, language, and patterns associated with school violence risk levels by using manual annotation and statistical methodology. To analyze the student interviews, we initiated the development of an annotation guideline to extract key information that is associated with students' behaviors, attitudes, feelings, use of technology and other activities. Statistical analysis was applied to associate the significant categories with students' risk levels to identify key factors which will help with developing action steps to reduce risk. In a future study, we plan to recruit more subjects in order to fully develop the manual annotation which will result in a more standardized and sensitive approach to school violence assessments.

Development and External Validation of a Melanoma Risk Prediction Model Based on Self-assessed Risk Factors.

PubMed

Vuong, Kylie; Armstrong, Bruce K; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Lund, Eiliv; Adami, Hans-Olov; Veierod, Marit B; Barrett, Jennifer H; Davies, John R; Bishop, D Timothy; Whiteman, David C; Olsen, Catherine M; Hopper, John L; Mann, Graham J; Cust, Anne E; McGeechan, Kevin

2016-08-01

Identifying individuals at high risk of melanoma can optimize primary and secondary prevention strategies. To develop and externally validate a risk prediction model for incident first-primary cutaneous melanoma using self-assessed risk factors. We used unconditional logistic regression to develop a multivariable risk prediction model. Relative risk estimates from the model were combined with Australian melanoma incidence and competing mortality rates to obtain absolute risk estimates. A risk prediction model was developed using the Australian Melanoma Family Study (629 cases and 535 controls) and externally validated using 4 independent population-based studies: the Western Australia Melanoma Study (511 case-control pairs), Leeds Melanoma Case-Control Study (960 cases and 513 controls), Epigene-QSkin Study (44 544, of which 766 with melanoma), and Swedish Women's Lifestyle and Health Cohort Study (49 259 women, of which 273 had melanoma). We validated model performance internally and externally by assessing discrimination using the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC). Additionally, using the Swedish Women's Lifestyle and Health Cohort Study, we assessed model calibration and clinical usefulness. The risk prediction model included hair color, nevus density, first-degree family history of melanoma, previous nonmelanoma skin cancer, and lifetime sunbed use. On internal validation, the AUC was 0.70 (95% CI, 0.67-0.73). On external validation, the AUC was 0.66 (95% CI, 0.63-0.69) in the Western Australia Melanoma Study, 0.67 (95% CI, 0.65-0.70) in the Leeds Melanoma Case-Control Study, 0.64 (95% CI, 0.62-0.66) in the Epigene-QSkin Study, and 0.63 (95% CI, 0.60-0.67) in the Swedish Women's Lifestyle and Health Cohort Study. Model calibration showed close agreement between predicted and observed numbers of incident melanomas across all deciles of predicted risk. In the external validation setting, there was higher net benefit when using the risk prediction model to classify individuals as high risk compared with classifying all individuals as high risk. The melanoma risk prediction model performs well and may be useful in prevention interventions reliant on a risk assessment using self-assessed risk factors.

The psychosocial environment at work: an assessment of the World Health Organization Regional Office for the Eastern Mediterranean.

PubMed

Join, A; Saeed, K; Arnaout, S; Kortum, E

2012-04-01

Psychosocial risks are widely recognised as major challenges to occupational health and safety. The risk management approach, which starts with an assessment of the risk that they pose, is acknowledged as the most effective way of preventing and managing psychosocial risks at the workplace. This paper presents the findings and action taken following a risk assessment of psychosocial risks, at the World health Organization Regional Officeforthe Eastern Mediterranean (EMRO) and country offices, carried outon behalf of the Committee on Health and Safety in the Workplace in EMRO. The findings show that psychosocial risks pose a threat to the mental well-being of staff. Management and co-worker support, rewards, possibilities for development, and trust mitigate the negative impact of psychosocial risks. The results of this risk assessment are being used to develop interventions aimed at enhancing the sense of well-being of staff, initially through actions at the employee level.

U.S. EPA Superfund Program's Policy for Risk and Dose Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Walker, Stuart

2008-01-15

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Office of Superfund Remediation and Technology Innovation (OSRTI) has primary responsibility for implementing the long-term (non-emergency) portion of a key U.S. law regulating cleanup: the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act, CERCLA, nicknamed 'Superfund'. The purpose of the Superfund program is to protect human health and the environment over the long term from releases or potential releases of hazardous substances from abandoned or uncontrolled hazardous waste sites. The focus of this paper is on risk and dose assessment policies and tools for addressing radioactively contaminated sites by the Superfund program. EPA has almost completedmore » two risk assessment tools that are particularly relevant to decommissioning activities conducted under CERCLA authority. These are the: 1. Building Preliminary Remediation Goals for Radionuclides (BPRG) electronic calculator, and 2. Radionuclide Outdoor Surfaces Preliminary Remediation Goals (SPRG) electronic calculator. EPA developed the BPRG calculator to help standardize the evaluation and cleanup of radiologically contaminated buildings at which risk is being assessed for occupancy. BPRGs are radionuclide concentrations in dust, air and building materials that correspond to a specified level of human cancer risk. The intent of SPRG calculator is to address hard outside surfaces such as building slabs, outside building walls, sidewalks and roads. SPRGs are radionuclide concentrations in dust and hard outside surface materials. EPA is also developing the 'Radionuclide Ecological Benchmark' calculator. This calculator provides biota concentration guides (BCGs), also known as ecological screening benchmarks, for use in ecological risk assessments at CERCLA sites. This calculator is intended to develop ecological benchmarks as part of the EPA guidance 'Ecological Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund: Process for Designing and Conducting Ecological Risk Assessments'. The calculator develops ecological benchmarks for ionizing radiation based on cell death only.« less

Development and evaluation of an automated fall risk assessment system.

PubMed

Lee, Ju Young; Jin, Yinji; Piao, Jinshi; Lee, Sun-Mi

2016-04-01

Fall risk assessment is the first step toward prevention, and a risk assessment tool with high validity should be used. This study aimed to develop and validate an automated fall risk assessment system (Auto-FallRAS) to assess fall risks based on electronic medical records (EMRs) without additional data collected or entered by nurses. This study was conducted in a 1335-bed university hospital in Seoul, South Korea. The Auto-FallRAS was developed using 4211 fall-related clinical data extracted from EMRs. Participants included fall patients and non-fall patients (868 and 3472 for the development study; 752 and 3008 for the validation study; and 58 and 232 for validation after clinical application, respectively). The system was evaluated for predictive validity and concurrent validity. The final 10 predictors were included in the logistic regression model for the risk-scoring algorithm. The results of the Auto-FallRAS were shown as high/moderate/low risk on the EMR screen. The predictive validity analyzed after clinical application of the Auto-FallRAS was as follows: sensitivity = 0.95, NPV = 0.97 and Youden index = 0.44. The validity of the Morse Fall Scale assessed by nurses was as follows: sensitivity = 0.68, NPV = 0.88 and Youden index = 0.28. This study found that the Auto-FallRAS results were better than were the nurses' predictions. The advantage of the Auto-FallRAS is that it automatically analyzes information and shows patients' fall risk assessment results without requiring additional time from nurses. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press in association with the International Society for Quality in Health Care; all rights reserved.

Advancing effects analysis for integrated, large-scale wildfire risk assessment

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; David E. Calkin; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day; Alan A. Ager

2011-01-01

In this article, we describe the design and development of a quantitative, geospatial risk assessment tool intended to facilitate monitoring trends in wildfire risk over time and to provide information useful in prioritizing fuels treatments and mitigation measures. The research effort is designed to develop, from a strategic view, a first approximation of how both...

The Development and Validation of the Contextualized Assessment Tool for Risk and Protection Management (CAT-RPM)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bower, Julie M.; Carroll, Annemaree; Ashman, Adrian

2014-01-01

Traditional resources for ascertaining risk and protection for disengaged youth are often unsuitable, due to the stamina and skill required to complete them. Many of these tools assess risk without considering participants' potential for personal growth. The present study outlines the development and initial validation of a tool titled the…

Risk assessment model for development of advanced age-related macular degeneration.

PubMed

Klein, Michael L; Francis, Peter J; Ferris, Frederick L; Hamon, Sara C; Clemons, Traci E

2011-12-01

To design a risk assessment model for development of advanced age-related macular degeneration (AMD) incorporating phenotypic, demographic, environmental, and genetic risk factors. We evaluated longitudinal data from 2846 participants in the Age-Related Eye Disease Study. At baseline, these individuals had all levels of AMD, ranging from none to unilateral advanced AMD (neovascular or geographic atrophy). Follow-up averaged 9.3 years. We performed a Cox proportional hazards analysis with demographic, environmental, phenotypic, and genetic covariates and constructed a risk assessment model for development of advanced AMD. Performance of the model was evaluated using the C statistic and the Brier score and externally validated in participants in the Complications of Age-Related Macular Degeneration Prevention Trial. The final model included the following independent variables: age, smoking history, family history of AMD (first-degree member), phenotype based on a modified Age-Related Eye Disease Study simple scale score, and genetic variants CFH Y402H and ARMS2 A69S. The model did well on performance measures, with very good discrimination (C statistic = 0.872) and excellent calibration and overall performance (Brier score at 5 years = 0.08). Successful external validation was performed, and a risk assessment tool was designed for use with or without the genetic component. We constructed a risk assessment model for development of advanced AMD. The model performed well on measures of discrimination, calibration, and overall performance and was successfully externally validated. This risk assessment tool is available for online use.

DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF POPULATION MODELS TO SUPPORT EPA'S ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESSES FOR PESTICIDES

EPA Science Inventory

As part of a broader exploratory effort to develop ecological risk assessment approaches to estimate potential chemical effects on non-target populations, we describe an approach for developing simple population models to estimate the extent to which acute effects on individual...

Considerations for Developing a Dosimetry-Based Cumulative Risk Assessment Approach for Mixtures of Environmental Contaminants (Final Report)

EPA Science Inventory

EPA announced the availability of the final report, Considerations for Developing a Dosimetry-Based Cumulative Risk Assessment Approach for Mixtures of Environmental Contaminants. This report describes a process that can be used to determine the potential value of develop...

Seismic hazard assessment of Oregon highway truck routes.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-06-01

This research project developed a seismic risk assessment model along the major truck routes in Oregon. The study had adopted federally : developed software tools called Risk for Earthquake Damage to Roadway Systems (REDARS2) and HAZUS-MH. The model ...

A new approach to criteria for health risk assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Spickett, Jeffery, E-mail: J.Spickett@curtin.edu.au; Faculty of Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Curtin University, Perth, Western Australia; Katscherian, Dianne

2012-01-15

Health Impact Assessment (HIA) is a developing component of the overall impact assessment process and as such needs access to procedures that can enable more consistent approaches to the stepwise process that is now generally accepted in both EIA and HIA. The guidelines developed during this project provide a structured process, based on risk assessment procedures which use consequences and likelihood, as a way of ranking risks to adverse health outcomes from activities subjected to HIA or HIA as part of EIA. The aim is to assess the potential for both acute and chronic health outcomes. The consequences component alsomore » identifies a series of consequences for the health care system, depicted as expressions of financial expenditure and the capacity of the health system. These more specific health risk assessment characteristics should provide for a broader consideration of health consequences and a more consistent estimation of the adverse health risks of a proposed development at both the scoping and risk assessment stages of the HIA process. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A more objective approach to health risk assessment is provided. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer An objective set of criteria for the consequences for chronic and acute impacts. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer An objective set of criteria for the consequences on the health care system. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer An objective set of criteria for event frequency that could impact on health. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The approach presented is currently being trialled in Australia.« less

Development and validation of risk models and molecular diagnostics to permit personalized management of cancer.

PubMed

Pu, Xia; Ye, Yuanqing; Wu, Xifeng

2014-01-01

Despite the advances made in cancer management over the past few decades, improvements in cancer diagnosis and prognosis are still poor, highlighting the need for individualized strategies. Toward this goal, risk prediction models and molecular diagnostic tools have been developed, tailoring each step of risk assessment from diagnosis to treatment and clinical outcomes based on the individual's clinical, epidemiological, and molecular profiles. These approaches hold increasing promise for delivering a new paradigm to maximize the efficiency of cancer surveillance and efficacy of treatment. However, they require stringent study design, methodology development, comprehensive assessment of biomarkers and risk factors, and extensive validation to ensure their overall usefulness for clinical translation. In the current study, the authors conducted a systematic review using breast cancer as an example and provide general guidelines for risk prediction models and molecular diagnostic tools, including development, assessment, and validation. © 2013 American Cancer Society.

Development and Validation of Osteoporosis Risk-Assessment Model for Korean Men

PubMed Central

Oh, Sun Min; Song, Bo Mi; Nam, Byung-Ho; Rhee, Yumie; Moon, Seong-Hwan; Kim, Deog Young; Kang, Dae Ryong

2016-01-01

Purpose The aim of the present study was to develop an osteoporosis risk-assessment model to identify high-risk individuals among Korean men. Materials and Methods The study used data from 1340 and 1110 men ≥50 years who participated in the 2009 and 2010 Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, respectively, for development and validation of an osteoporosis risk-assessment model. Osteoporosis was defined as T score ≤-2.5 at either the femoral neck or lumbar spine. Performance of the candidate models and the Osteoporosis Self-assessment Tool for Asian (OSTA) was compared with sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC). A net reclassification improvement was further calculated to compare the developed Korean Osteoporosis Risk-Assessment Model for Men (KORAM-M) with OSTA. Results In the development dataset, the prevalence of osteoporosis was 8.1%. KORAM-M, consisting of age and body weight, had a sensitivity of 90.8%, a specificity of 42.4%, and an AUC of 0.666 with a cut-off score of -9. In the validation dataset, similar results were shown: sensitivity 87.9%, specificity 39.7%, and AUC 0.638. Additionally, risk categorization with KORAM-M showed improved reclassification over that of OSTA up to 22.8%. Conclusion KORAM-M can be simply used as a pre-screening tool to identify candidates for dual energy X-ray absorptiometry tests. PMID:26632400

A PROPOSED FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING RISK FROM LESS-THAN-LIFETIME EXPOSURES TO CARCINOGENS

EPA Science Inventory

Quantitative cancer risk assessment methods have been developed for daily, lifetime human exposures, but not for exposures that are less than lifetime. Few examples for less-than-Iifetime exposures exist in the published literature. To move cancer risk assessment beyond reliance ...

ARSENIC: CARCINOGENIC MECHANISMS, RISK ASSESSMENT AND THE MAXIMUM CONTAMINANT LEVEL (MCL)

EPA Science Inventory

This workshop will provide an up-to-date overview on key issues related to cancer risk assessment of arsenic: carcinogenic mechanisms; application of mechanistic information to risk assessment models; and the development of the MCL for arsenic in drinking water. The two prese...

Predicting Risk of Suicide Attempt Using History of Physical Illnesses From Electronic Medical Records

PubMed Central

Luo, Wei; Tran, Truyen; Berk, Michael; Venkatesh, Svetha

2016-01-01

Background Although physical illnesses, routinely documented in electronic medical records (EMR), have been found to be a contributing factor to suicides, no automated systems use this information to predict suicide risk. Objective The aim of this study is to quantify the impact of physical illnesses on suicide risk, and develop a predictive model that captures this relationship using EMR data. Methods We used history of physical illnesses (except chapter V: Mental and behavioral disorders) from EMR data over different time-periods to build a lookup table that contains the probability of suicide risk for each chapter of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, 10th Revision (ICD-10) codes. The lookup table was then used to predict the probability of suicide risk for any new assessment. Based on the different lengths of history of physical illnesses, we developed six different models to predict suicide risk. We tested the performance of developed models to predict 90-day risk using historical data over differing time-periods ranging from 3 to 48 months. A total of 16,858 assessments from 7399 mental health patients with at least one risk assessment was used for the validation of the developed model. The performance was measured using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results The best predictive results were derived (AUC=0.71) using combined data across all time-periods, which significantly outperformed the clinical baseline derived from routine risk assessment (AUC=0.56). The proposed approach thus shows potential to be incorporated in the broader risk assessment processes used by clinicians. Conclusions This study provides a novel approach to exploit the history of physical illnesses extracted from EMR (ICD-10 codes without chapter V-mental and behavioral disorders) to predict suicide risk, and this model outperforms existing clinical assessments of suicide risk. PMID:27400764

Use of screening tests to assess cancer risk and to estimate the risk of adult T-cell leukemia/lymphoma.

PubMed Central

Yanagawa, T; Tokudome, S

1990-01-01

We developed methods to assess the cancer risks by screening tests. These methods estimate the size of the high risk group adjusted for the characteristics of screening tests and estimate the incidence rates of cancer among the high risk group adjusted for the characteristics of the tests. A method was also developed for selecting the cut-off point of a screening test. Finally, the methods were applied to estimate the risk of the adult T-cell leukemia/lymphoma. PMID:2269244

75 FR 1770 - An Approach to Using Toxicogenomic Data in U.S. EPA Human Health Risk Assessments: A Dibutyl...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-01-13

... qualitative aspects of the risk assessment because of the type of genomic data available for DBP. It is... Assessment (NCEA) within EPA's Office of Research and Development (ORD). Toxicogenomics is the application of... exploratory methods for analyzing genomic data for application to risk assessment and some preliminary results...

Cancer Risk Prediction and Assessment

Cancer.gov

Cancer prediction models provide an important approach to assessing risk and prognosis by identifying individuals at high risk, facilitating the design and planning of clinical cancer trials, fostering the development of benefit-risk indices, and enabling estimates of the population burden and cost of cancer.

Human Health Risk Assessment (HHRA) for Environmental Development and Transfer of Antibiotic Resistance

PubMed Central

Amézquita, Alejandro; Backhaus, Thomas; Borriello, Peter; Brandt, Kristian K.; Collignon, Peter; Coors, Anja; Finley, Rita; Gaze, William H.; Heberer, Thomas; Lawrence, John R.; Larsson, D.G. Joakim; McEwen, Scott A.; Ryan, James J.; Schönfeld, Jens; Silley, Peter; Snape, Jason R.; Van den Eede, Christel; Topp, Edward

2013-01-01

Background: Only recently has the environment been clearly implicated in the risk of antibiotic resistance to clinical outcome, but to date there have been few documented approaches to formally assess these risks. Objective: We examined possible approaches and sought to identify research needs to enable human health risk assessments (HHRA) that focus on the role of the environment in the failure of antibiotic treatment caused by antibiotic-resistant pathogens. Methods: The authors participated in a workshop held 4–8 March 2012 in Québec, Canada, to define the scope and objectives of an environmental assessment of antibiotic-resistance risks to human health. We focused on key elements of environmental-resistance-development “hot spots,” exposure assessment (unrelated to food), and dose response to characterize risks that may improve antibiotic-resistance management options. Discussion: Various novel aspects to traditional risk assessments were identified to enable an assessment of environmental antibiotic resistance. These include a) accounting for an added selective pressure on the environmental resistome that, over time, allows for development of antibiotic-resistant bacteria (ARB); b) identifying and describing rates of horizontal gene transfer (HGT) in the relevant environmental “hot spot” compartments; and c) modifying traditional dose–response approaches to address doses of ARB for various health outcomes and pathways. Conclusions: We propose that environmental aspects of antibiotic-resistance development be included in the processes of any HHRA addressing ARB. Because of limited available data, a multicriteria decision analysis approach would be a useful way to undertake an HHRA of environmental antibiotic resistance that informs risk managers. Citation: Ashbolt NJ, Amézquita A, Backhaus T, Borriello P, Brandt KK, Collignon P, Coors A, Finley R, Gaze WH, Heberer T, Lawrence JR, Larsson DG, McEwen SA, Ryan JJ, Schönfeld J, Silley P, Snape JR, Van den Eede C, Topp E. 2013. Human health risk assessment (HHRA) for environmental development and transfer of antibiotic resistance. Environ Health Perspect 121:993–1001; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1206316 PMID:23838256

OPPT workplan risk assessment for Trichloroethylene ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The assessment will focus on uses of TCE as a degreaser and in consumer products used by individuals in the arts/crafts field. Given the range of endpoints (cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), it is expected that susceptible populations would be children (as bystanders physically near the actual consumer use of the products) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women). Thus, the assessment will focus on all human/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.

How to Assess the Biomechanical Risk Levels in Beekeeping.

PubMed

Maina, G; Rossi, F; Baracco, A

2016-01-01

Beekeepers are at particular risk of developing work-related musculoskeletal disorders, but many of the studies lack detailed exposure assessment. To evaluate the biomechanical overload exposure in a specific farming activity, a multitasking model has been developed through the characterization of 37 basic operational tasks typical of the beekeeping activity. The Occupational Repetitive Actions (OCRA) Checklist and the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) Lifting Index methodologies have been applied to these elementary tasks to evaluate the exposure, and the resulting risk indices have been time-weighted averaged. Finally, an easy access, computer-assisted toolkit has been developed to help the beekeepers in the biomechanical risk assessment process. The risk of biomechanical overload for the upper limbs ranges from acceptable (maintenance and recovery of woody material and honey packaging with dosing machine tasks) to high (distribution of the top supers) risk level. The risk for back injury is always borderline in women and increases with exposure time, whereas it ranges from acceptable to borderline in men. The definition of the biomechanical risk levels allows for planning of corrective actions aimed at preventing and reducing the risk of musculoskeletal disorders through engineering, administrative, and behavioral interventions. The methodology can be used for risk assessment in other mainly manual agricultural activities.

Integrated Environmental Risk Assessment and Whole-Process Management System in Chemical Industry Parks

PubMed Central

Shao, Chaofeng; Yang, Juan; Tian, Xiaogang; Ju, Meiting; Huang, Lei

2013-01-01

Chemical industry parks in China are considered high-risk areas because they present numerous risks that can damage the environment, such as pollution incidents. In order to identify the environmental risks and the principal risk factors in these areas, we have developed a simple physical model of a regional environmental risk field (ERF) using existing dispersal patterns and migration models. The regional ERF zoning was also conducted and a reference value for diagnostic methods was developed to determine risk-acceptable, risk-warning, and risk-mitigation zones, which can provide a risk source layout for chemical industry parks. In accordance with the environmental risk control requirements, this study focused on the three stages of control and management of environmental risk and established an environmental risk management system including risk source identification and assessment, environmental safety planning, early risk warning, emergency management, assessment of environmental effects, and environmental remediation of pollution accidents. By using this model, the environmental risks in Tianjin Binhai New Area, the largest chemical industry park in China, were assessed and the environmental risk zoning map was drawn, which suggested the existence of many unacceptable environmental risks in this area. Thus, relevant suggestions have been proposed from the perspective of the adjustment of risk source layout, intensified management of environmental risk control and so on. PMID:23603866

Integrated environmental risk assessment and whole-process management system in chemical industry parks.

PubMed

Shao, Chaofeng; Yang, Juan; Tian, Xiaogang; Ju, Meiting; Huang, Lei

2013-04-19

Chemical industry parks in China are considered high-risk areas because they present numerous risks that can damage the environment, such as pollution incidents. In order to identify the environmental risks and the principal risk factors in these areas, we have developed a simple physical model of a regional environmental risk field (ERF) using existing dispersal patterns and migration models. The regional ERF zoning was also conducted and a reference value for diagnostic methods was developed to determine risk-acceptable, risk-warning, and risk-mitigation zones, which can provide a risk source layout for chemical industry parks. In accordance with the environmental risk control requirements, this study focused on the three stages of control and management of environmental risk and established an environmental risk management system including risk source identification and assessment, environmental safety planning, early risk warning, emergency management, assessment of environmental effects, and environmental remediation of pollution accidents. By using this model, the environmental risks in Tianjin Binhai New Area, the largest chemical industry park in China, were assessed and the environmental risk zoning map was drawn, which suggested the existence of many unacceptable environmental risks in this area. Thus, relevant suggestions have been proposed from the perspective of the adjustment of risk source layout, intensified management of environmental risk control and so on.

Assessment of the Casualty Risk of Multiple Meteorological Hazards in China

PubMed Central

Xu, Wei; Zhuo, Li; Zheng, Jing; Ge, Yi; Gu, Zhihui; Tian, Yugang

2016-01-01

A study of the frequency, intensity, and risk of extreme climatic events or natural hazards is important for assessing the impacts of climate change. Many models have been developed to assess the risk of multiple hazards, however, most of the existing approaches can only model the relative levels of risk. This paper reports the development of a method for the quantitative assessment of the risk of multiple hazards based on information diffusion. This method was used to assess the risks of loss of human lives from 11 types of meteorological hazards in China at the prefectural and provincial levels. Risk curves of multiple hazards were obtained for each province and the risks of 10-year, 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year return periods were mapped. The results show that the provinces (municipalities, autonomous regions) in southeastern China are at higher risk of multiple meteorological hazards as a result of their geographical location and topography. The results of this study can be used as references for the management of meteorological disasters in China. The model can be used to quantitatively calculate the risks of casualty, direct economic losses, building collapse, and agricultural losses for any hazards at different spatial scales. PMID:26901210

Assessment of the Casualty Risk of Multiple Meteorological Hazards in China.

PubMed

Xu, Wei; Zhuo, Li; Zheng, Jing; Ge, Yi; Gu, Zhihui; Tian, Yugang

2016-02-17

A study of the frequency, intensity, and risk of extreme climatic events or natural hazards is important for assessing the impacts of climate change. Many models have been developed to assess the risk of multiple hazards, however, most of the existing approaches can only model the relative levels of risk. This paper reports the development of a method for the quantitative assessment of the risk of multiple hazards based on information diffusion. This method was used to assess the risks of loss of human lives from 11 types of meteorological hazards in China at the prefectural and provincial levels. Risk curves of multiple hazards were obtained for each province and the risks of 10-year, 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year return periods were mapped. The results show that the provinces (municipalities, autonomous regions) in southeastern China are at higher risk of multiple meteorological hazards as a result of their geographical location and topography. The results of this study can be used as references for the management of meteorological disasters in China. The model can be used to quantitatively calculate the risks of casualty, direct economic losses, building collapse, and agricultural losses for any hazards at different spatial scales.

Improving risk assessment of violence among military veterans: an evidence-based approach for clinical decision-making.

PubMed

Elbogen, Eric B; Fuller, Sara; Johnson, Sally C; Brooks, Stephanie; Kinneer, Patricia; Calhoun, Patrick S; Beckham, Jean C

2010-08-01

Increased media attention to post-deployment violence highlights the need to develop effective models to guide risk assessment among military Veterans. Ideally, a method would help identify which Veterans are most at risk for violence so that it can be determined what could be done to prevent violent behavior. This article suggests how empirical approaches to risk assessment used successfully in civilian populations can be applied to Veterans. A review was conducted of the scientific literature on Veteran populations regarding factors related to interpersonal violence generally and to domestic violence specifically. A checklist was then generated of empirically-supported risk factors for clinicians to consider in practice. To conceptualize how these known risk factors relate to a Veteran's violence potential, risk assessment scholarship was utilized to develop an evidence-based method to guide mental health professionals. The goals of this approach are to integrate science into practice, overcome logistical barriers, and permit more effective assessment, monitoring, and management of violence risk for clinicians working with Veterans, both in Department of Veteran Affairs settings and in the broader community. Research is needed to test the predictive validity of risk assessment models. Ultimately, the use of a systematic, empirical framework could lead to improved clinical decision-making in the area of risk assessment and potentially help prevent violence among Veterans. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

BIOLOGICAL RESPONSES OF THE SEA URCHIN, ARBACIA PUNTULATA, TO LEAD CONTAMINATION FOR AN ESTUARINE ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

An estuarine ecological risk assessment for the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard (PNS) Kittery, ME, was conducted utilizing the U.S. EPA's Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA). As part of the analysis phase of the ERA, laboratory studies were conducted to develop quantitative ...

Response to Ecological Risk Assessment Forum Request for Information on the Benefits of PCB Congener-Specific Analyses

EPA Science Inventory

In August, 2001, the Ecological Risk Assessment Forum (ERAF) submitted a formal question to the Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center (ERASC) on the benefits of evaluating PCB congeners in environmental samples. This question was developed by ERAF members Bruce Duncan and Cla...

Developing Statistical Models to Assess Transplant Outcomes Using National Registries: The Process in the United States.

PubMed

Snyder, Jon J; Salkowski, Nicholas; Kim, S Joseph; Zaun, David; Xiong, Hui; Israni, Ajay K; Kasiske, Bertram L

2016-02-01

Created by the US National Organ Transplant Act in 1984, the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR) is obligated to publicly report data on transplant program and organ procurement organization performance in the United States. These reports include risk-adjusted assessments of graft and patient survival, and programs performing worse or better than expected are identified. The SRTR currently maintains 43 risk adjustment models for assessing posttransplant patient and graft survival and, in collaboration with the SRTR Technical Advisory Committee, has developed and implemented a new systematic process for model evaluation and revision. Patient cohorts for the risk adjustment models are identified, and single-organ and multiorgan transplants are defined, then each risk adjustment model is developed following a prespecified set of steps. Model performance is assessed, the model is refit to a more recent cohort before each evaluation cycle, and then it is applied to the evaluation cohort. The field of solid organ transplantation is unique in the breadth of the standardized data that are collected. These data allow for quality assessment across all transplant providers in the United States. A standardized process of risk model development using data from national registries may enhance the field.

Multisite Parent-Centered Risk Assessment to Reduce Pediatric Oral Chemotherapy Errors

PubMed Central

Walsh, Kathleen E.; Mazor, Kathleen M.; Roblin, Douglas; Biggins, Colleen; Wagner, Joann L.; Houlahan, Kathleen; Li, Justin W.; Keuker, Christopher; Wasilewski-Masker, Karen; Donovan, Jennifer; Kanaan, Abir; Weingart, Saul N.

2013-01-01

Purpose: Observational studies describe high rates of errors in home oral chemotherapy use in children. In hospitals, proactive risk assessment methods help front-line health care workers develop error prevention strategies. Our objective was to engage parents of children with cancer in a multisite study using proactive risk assessment methods to identify how errors occur at home and propose risk reduction strategies. Methods: We recruited parents from three outpatient pediatric oncology clinics in the northeast and southeast United States to participate in failure mode and effects analyses (FMEA). An FMEA is a systematic team-based proactive risk assessment approach in understanding ways a process can fail and develop prevention strategies. Steps included diagram the process, brainstorm and prioritize failure modes (places where things go wrong), and propose risk reduction strategies. We focused on home oral chemotherapy administration after a change in dose because prior studies identified this area as high risk. Results: Parent teams consisted of four parents at two of the sites and 10 at the third. Parents developed a 13-step process map, with two to 19 failure modes per step. The highest priority failure modes included miscommunication when receiving instructions from the clinician (caused by conflicting instructions or parent lapses) and unsafe chemotherapy handling at home. Recommended risk assessment strategies included novel uses of technology to improve parent access to information, clinicians, and other parents while at home. Conclusion: Parents of pediatric oncology patients readily participated in a proactive risk assessment method, identifying processes that pose a risk for medication errors involving home oral chemotherapy. PMID:23633976

Risk assessment for produced water discharges to Louisiana open bays. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meinhold, A.F.; DePhillips, M.P.; Holtzman, S.

1996-03-22

The US Department of Energy (USDOE) has a program of research in the environmental aspects of oil and gas extraction. This sampling project will characterize the environmental impacts associated with the discharge of naturally occurring radioactive materials (NORM), metals and organics in produced water. This report is part of a series of studies of the health and ecological risks from discharges of produced water to the Gulf of Mexico, supported by the USDOE. These assessments are being coordinated with the field study, using the collected data to perform human health and ecological risk assessments. These assessments will provide input tomore » regulators in the development of guidelines and permits, and to industry in the development and use of appropriate discharge practices. The initial human health and ecological risk assessments consist of conservative screening analyses meant to identify potentially important contaminants, and to eliminate others from further consideration. More quantitative assessments were done for contaminants identified, in the screening analysis, as being of potential concern. Section 2 gives an overview of human health and ecological risk assessment to help put the analyses presented here in perspective. Section 3 provides the hazard assessment portion of the risk assessment, and identifies the important receptors and pathways of concern. Section 3 also outlines the approach taken to the risk assessments presented in the rest of the report. The remaining sections (4 through 9) present the human health and ecological risk assessments for discharges of produced water to open bays in Louisiana.« less

ARIES Oxide Production Program Assessment of Risk to Long-term Sustainable Production Rate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Whitworth, Julia; Lloyd, Jane Alexandria; Majors, Harry W.

2017-05-04

This report describes an assessment of risks and the development of a risk watch list for the ARIES Oxide Production Program conducted in the Plutonium Facility at LANL. The watch list is an active list of potential risks and opportunities that the management team periodically considers to maximize the likelihood of program success. The initial assessments were made in FY 16. The initial watch list was reviewed in September 2016. The initial report was not issued. Revision 1 has been developed based on management review of the original watch list and includes changes that occurred during FY-16.

Risk analysis for veterinary biologicals released into the environment.

PubMed

Silva, S V; Samagh, B S; Morley, R S

1995-12-01

All veterinary biologicals licensed in Canada must be shown to be pure, potent, safe and effective. A risk-based approach is used to evaluate the safety of all biologicals, whether produced by conventional methods or by molecular biological techniques. Traditionally, qualitative risk assessment methods have been used for this purpose. More recently, quantitative risk assessment has become available for complex issues. The quantitative risk assessment method uses "scenario tree analysis' to predict the likelihood of various outcomes and their respective impacts. The authors describe the quantitative risk assessment approach which is used within the broader context of risk analysis (i.e. risk assessment, risk management and risk communication) to develop recommendations for the field release of veterinary biologicals. The general regulatory framework for the licensing of veterinary biologicals in Canada is also presented.

Falls risk assessment in older patients in hospital.

PubMed

Matarese, Maria; Ivziku, Dhurata

2016-07-27

Falls are the most frequent adverse event reported in hospitals, usually affecting older patients. All hospitals in NHS organisations develop risk prevention policies that include falls risk assessment. Falls risk assessment involves the use of risk screening tools, aimed at identifying patients at increased risk of falls, and risk assessment tools, which identify a patient's risk factors for falls. Various risk screening tools have been used in clinical practice, but no single tool is able to identify all patients at risk of falls or to accurately exclude all those who are not at risk of falls. Guidelines recommend that patients aged 65 years and over who are admitted to hospital should be considered at high risk of falls and that a multifactorial falls risk assessment should be performed. Therefore, falls risk assessment tools should be used to identify the risk factors for each inpatient aged 65 years or over, in order to determine the most appropriate care plan for falls prevention and to maximise patient mobility and independence.

Fall Risk Assessment in Geriatric-Psychiatric Inpatients to Lower Events (FRAGILE).

PubMed

Nanda, Sudip; Dey, Tanujit; Gulstrand, Rudolph E; Cudnik, Daniel; Haller, Harold S

2011-02-01

The objectives of this retrospective case-control study were to identify risk factors of falls in geriatric-psychiatric inpatients and develop a screening tool to accurately predict falls. The study sample consisted of 225 geriatric-psychiatric inpatients at a Midwestern referral facility. The sample included 136 inpatients who fell and a random stratified sample of 89 inpatients who did not fall. Data collected included age, gender, activities of daily living, and nursing parameters such as bathing assistance, bed height, use of bed rails, one-on-one observation, fall warning system, Conley Scale fall risk assessment, medical diagnosis, and medications. History of falls, impaired judgment, impaired gait, dizziness, delusions, delirium, chronic use of sedative or antipsychotic agents, and anticholinergic urinary bladder medications significantly increased fall risk. Alzheimer's disease, acute use of sedative or anti-psychotic agents, and depression reduced fall risk. A falls risk tool, Fall Risk Assessment in Geriatric-psychiatric Inpatients to Lower Events (FRAGILE), was developed for assessment and risk stratification with new diagnoses or medications. Copyright 2011, SLACK Incorporated.

Development of risk matrices for evaluating climatic change responses of forested habitats

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary. Yohe

2012-01-01

We present an approach to assess and compare risk from climate change among multiple species through a risk matrix, in which managers can quickly prioritize for species that need to have strategies developed, evaluated further, or watched. We base the matrix upon earlier work towards the National Climate Assessment for potential damage to infrastructures from climate...

Three methods for integration of environmental risk into the benefit-risk assessment of veterinary medicinal products.

PubMed

Chapman, Jennifer L; Porsch, Lucas; Vidaurre, Rodrigo; Backhaus, Thomas; Sinclair, Chris; Jones, Glyn; Boxall, Alistair B A

2017-12-15

Veterinary medicinal products (VMPs) require, as part of the European Union (EU) authorization process, consideration of both risks and benefits. Uses of VMPs have multiple risks (e.g., risks to the animal being treated, to the person administering the VMP) including risks to the environment. Environmental risks are not directly comparable to therapeutic benefits; there is no standardized approach to compare both environmental risks and therapeutic benefits. We have developed three methods for communicating and comparing therapeutic benefits and environmental risks for the benefit-risk assessment that supports the EU authorization process. Two of these methods support independent product evaluation (i.e., a summative classification and a visual scoring matrix classification); the other supports a comparative evaluation between alternative products (i.e., a comparative classification). The methods and the challenges to implementing a benefit-risk assessment including environmental risk are presented herein; how these concepts would work in current policy is discussed. Adaptability to scientific and policy development is considered. This work is an initial step in the development of a standardized methodology for integrated decision-making for VMPs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Innovative Models of Dental Care Delivery and Coverage: Patient-Centric Dental Benefits Based on Digital Oral Health Risk Assessment.

PubMed

Martin, John; Mills, Shannon; Foley, Mary E

2018-04-01

Innovative models of dental care delivery and coverage are emerging across oral health care systems causing changes to treatment and benefit plans. A novel addition to these models is digital risk assessment, which offers a promising new approach that incorporates the use of a cloud-based technology platform to assess an individual patient's risk for oral disease. Risk assessment changes treatment by including risk as a modifier of treatment and as a determinant of preventive services. Benefit plans are being developed to use risk assessment to predetermine preventive benefits for patients identified at elevated risk for oral disease. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Carbon/graphite fiber risk analysis and assessment study: Assessment of risk to the Lockheed Model L-1011 commercial transport aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daniledes, J.; Koch, J. R.

1980-01-01

The risk associated with the accidental release of carbon/graphite fibers (CF) from fires on commercial transport aircraft incorporating composite materials was assessed. Data are developed to evaluate the potential for CF damage to electrical and electronic equipment, assess the cost risk, and evaluate the hazard to continued operation. The subjects covered include identification of susceptible equipments, determination of infiltration transfer functions, analysis of airport operations, calculation of probabilities of equipment failures, assessment of the cost risk, and evaluation of the hazard to continued operation. The results show the risks associated with CF contamination are negligible through 1993.

Review of the scientific evidence to support environmental risk assessment of shale gas development in the UK.

PubMed

Prpich, George; Coulon, Frédéric; Anthony, Edward J

2016-09-01

Interest in the development of shale gas resources using hydraulic fracturing techniques is increasing worldwide despite concerns about the environmental risks associated with this activity. In the United Kingdom (UK), early attempts to hydraulically fracture a shale gas well resulted in a seismic event that led to the suspension of all hydraulic fracturing operations. In response to this occurrence, UK regulators have requested that future shale gas operations that use hydraulic fracturing should be accompanied by a high-level environmental risk assessment (ERA). Completion of an ERA can demonstrate competency, communicate understanding, and ultimately build trust that environmental risks are being managed properly, however, this assessment requires a scientific evidence base. In this paper we discuss how the ERA became a preferred assessment technique to understand the risks related to shale gas development in the UK, and how it can be used to communicate information between stakeholders. We also provide a review of the evidence base that describes the environmental risks related to shale gas operations, which could be used to support an ERA. Finally, we conclude with an update of the current environmental risks associated with shale gas development in the UK and present recommendations for further research. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing secondary soil salinization risk based on the PSR sustainability framework.

PubMed

Zhou, De; Lin, Zhulu; Liu, Liming; Zimmermann, David

2013-10-15

Risk assessment of secondary soil salinization, which is caused in part by the way people manage the land, is an essential challenge to agricultural sustainability. The objective of our study was to develop a soil salinity risk assessment methodology by selecting a consistent set of risk factors based on the conceptual Pressure-State-Response (PSR) sustainability framework and incorporating the grey relational analysis and the Analytic Hierarchy Process methods. The proposed salinity risk assessment methodology was demonstrated through a case study of developing composite risk index maps for the Yinchuan Plain, a major irrigation agriculture district in northwest China. Fourteen risk factors were selected in terms of the three PSR criteria: pressure, state, and response. The results showed that the salinity risk in the Yinchuan Plain was strongly influenced by the subsoil and groundwater salinity, land use, distance to irrigation canals, and depth to groundwater. To maintain agricultural sustainability in the Yinchuan Plain, a suite of remedial and preventative actions were proposed to manage soil salinity risk in the regions that are affected by salinity at different levels and by different salinization processes. The weight sensitivity analysis results also showed that the overall salinity risk of the Yinchuan Plain would increase or decrease as the weights for pressure or response risk factors increased, signifying the importance of human activities on secondary soil salinization. Ideally, the proposed methodology will help us develop more consistent management tools for risk assessment and management and for control of secondary soil salinization. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Conceptual Launch Vehicle and Spacecraft Design for Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Motiwala, Samira A.; Mathias, Donovan L.; Mattenberger, Christopher J.

2014-01-01

One of the most challenging aspects of developing human space launch and exploration systems is minimizing and mitigating the many potential risk factors to ensure the safest possible design while also meeting the required cost, weight, and performance criteria. In order to accomplish this, effective risk analyses and trade studies are needed to identify key risk drivers, dependencies, and sensitivities as the design evolves. The Engineering Risk Assessment (ERA) team at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) develops advanced risk analysis approaches, models, and tools to provide such meaningful risk and reliability data throughout vehicle development. The goal of the project presented in this memorandum is to design a generic launch 7 vehicle and spacecraft architecture that can be used to develop and demonstrate these new risk analysis techniques without relying on other proprietary or sensitive vehicle designs. To accomplish this, initial spacecraft and launch vehicle (LV) designs were established using historical sizing relationships for a mission delivering four crewmembers and equipment to the International Space Station (ISS). Mass-estimating relationships (MERs) were used to size the crew capsule and launch vehicle, and a combination of optimization techniques and iterative design processes were employed to determine a possible two-stage-to-orbit (TSTO) launch trajectory into a 350-kilometer orbit. Primary subsystems were also designed for the crewed capsule architecture, based on a 24-hour on-orbit mission with a 7-day contingency. Safety analysis was also performed to identify major risks to crew survivability and assess the system's overall reliability. These procedures and analyses validate that the architecture's basic design and performance are reasonable to be used for risk trade studies. While the vehicle designs presented are not intended to represent a viable architecture, they will provide a valuable initial platform for developing and demonstrating innovative risk assessment capabilities.

Evaluation of the validity of osteoporosis and fracture risk assessment tools (IOF One Minute Test, SCORE, and FRAX) in postmenopausal Palestinian women.

PubMed

Kharroubi, Akram; Saba, Elias; Ghannam, Ibrahim; Darwish, Hisham

2017-12-01

The need for simple self-assessment tools is necessary to predict women at high risk for developing osteoporosis. In this study, tools like the IOF One Minute Test, Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX), and Simple Calculated Osteoporosis Risk Estimation (SCORE) were found to be valid for Palestinian women. The threshold for predicting women at risk for each tool was estimated. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the validity of the updated IOF (International Osteoporosis Foundation) One Minute Osteoporosis Risk Assessment Test, FRAX, SCORE as well as age alone to detect the risk of developing osteoporosis in postmenopausal Palestinian women. Three hundred eighty-two women 45 years and older were recruited including 131 women with osteoporosis and 251 controls following bone mineral density (BMD) measurement, 287 completed questionnaires of the different risk assessment tools. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were evaluated for each tool using bone BMD as the gold standard for osteoporosis. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was the highest for FRAX calculated with BMD for predicting hip fractures (0.897) followed by FRAX for major fractures (0.826) with cut-off values ˃1.5 and ˃7.8%, respectively. The IOF One Minute Test AUC (0.629) was the lowest compared to other tested tools but with sufficient accuracy for predicting the risk of developing osteoporosis with a cut-off value ˃4 total yes questions out of 18. SCORE test and age alone were also as good predictors of risk for developing osteoporosis. According to the ROC curve for age, women ≥64 years had a higher risk of developing osteoporosis. Higher percentage of women with low BMD (T-score ≤-1.5) or osteoporosis (T-score ≤-2.5) was found among women who were not exposed to the sun, who had menopause before the age of 45 years, or had lower body mass index (BMI) compared to controls. Women who often fall had lower BMI and approximately 27% of the recruited postmenopausal Palestinian women had accidents that caused fractures. Simple self-assessment tools like FRAX without BMD, SCORE, and the IOF One Minute Tests were valid for predicting Palestinian postmenopausal women at high risk of developing osteoporosis.

Do doctors accurately assess coronary risk in their patients? Preliminary results of the coronary health assessment study.

PubMed Central

Grover, S. A.; Lowensteyn, I.; Esrey, K. L.; Steinert, Y.; Joseph, L.; Abrahamowicz, M.

1995-01-01

OBJECTIVE--To evaluate the ability of doctors in primary care to assess risk patients' risk of coronary heart disease. DESIGN--Questionnaire survey. SETTING--Continuing medical education meetings, Ontario and Quebec, Canada. SUBJECTS--Community based doctors who agreed to enroll in the coronary health assessment study. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--Ratings of coronary risk factors and estimates by doctors of relative and absolute coronary risk of two hypothetical patients and the "average" 40 year old Canadian man and 70 year old Canadian woman. RESULTS--253 doctors answered the questionnaire. For 30 year olds the doctors rated cigarette smoking as the most important risk factor and raised serum triglyceride concentrations as the least important; for 70 year old patients they rated diabetes as the most important risk factor and raised serum triglyceride concentrations as the least important. They rated each individual risk factor as significantly less important for 70 year olds than for 30 year olds (all risk factors, P < 0.001). They showed a strong understanding of the relative importance of specific risk factors, and most were confident in their ability to estimate coronary risk. While doctors accurately estimated the relative risk of a specific patient (compared with the average adult) they systematically overestimated the absolute baseline risk of developing coronary disease and the risk reductions associated with specific interventions. CONCLUSIONS--Despite guidelines on targeting patients at high risk of coronary disease accurate assessment of coronary risk remains difficult for many doctors. Additional strategies must be developed to help doctors to assess better their patients' coronary risk. PMID:7728035

75 FR 70009 - Development of Health Risk Assessment Guidance

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-11-16

... DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Development of Health Risk Assessment Guidance AGENCY: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). ACTION: Request for Information. SUMMARY: The Centers for Disease...

INTEGRATION OF PATHOLOGY AND TOXICOLOGY IN RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

In order to develop a scientifically defensible assessment of the risk for the development of cancer after long-term exposure to xenobiotics, regulatory agencies have adopted a uniform approach which includes the characterization of a carcinogenic mode of action and its biologica...

A Summary of Publications on Methods and Tools for Assessing Cumulative Risk, Project Summary

EPA Science Inventory

This collection of eight publications on cumulative risk assessment was developed collaboratively among scientists within EPA’s Office of Research and Development and three other organizations. These include scientific collaborations through an Interagency Agreement with Argonne...

Security Risks: Management and Mitigation in the Software Life Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gilliam, David P.

2004-01-01

A formal approach to managing and mitigating security risks in the software life cycle is requisite to developing software that has a higher degree of assurance that it is free of security defects which pose risk to the computing environment and the organization. Due to its criticality, security should be integrated as a formal approach in the software life cycle. Both a software security checklist and assessment tools should be incorporated into this life cycle process and integrated with a security risk assessment and mitigation tool. The current research at JPL addresses these areas through the development of a Sotfware Security Assessment Instrument (SSAI) and integrating it with a Defect Detection and Prevention (DDP) risk management tool.

Science-Driven Approach to Disaster Risk and Crisis Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ismail-Zadeh, A.

2014-12-01

Disasters due to natural extreme events continue to grow in number and intensity. Disaster risk and crisis management requires long-term planning, and to undertake that planning, a science-driven approach is needed to understand and assess disaster risks and to help in impact assessment and in recovery processes after a disaster. Science is used in assessments and rapid modeling of the disaster impact, in forecasting triggered hazards and risk (e.g., a tsunami or a landslide after a large earthquake), in contacts with and medical treatment of the affected population, and in some other actions. At the stage of response to disaster, science helps to analyze routinely the disaster happened (e.g., the physical processes led to this extreme event; hidden vulnerabilities; etc.) At the stage of recovery, natural scientists improve the existing regional hazard assessments; engineers try to use new science to produce new materials and technologies to make safer houses and infrastructure. At the stage of disaster risk mitigation new scientific methods and approaches are being developed to study natural extreme events; vulnerability of society is periodically investigated, and the measures for increasing the resilience of society to extremes are developed; existing disaster management regulations are improved. At the stage of preparedness, integrated research on disaster risks should be developed to understand the roots of potential disasters. Enhanced forecasting and early warning systems are to be developed reducing predictive uncertainties, and comprehensive disaster risk assessment is to be undertaken at local, regional, national and global levels. Science education should be improved by introducing trans-disciplinary approach to disaster risks. Science can help society by improving awareness about extreme events, enhancing risk communication with policy makers, media and society, and assisting disaster risk management authorities in organization of local and regional training and exercises.

Completion of risk assessment and monitoring within forensic psychiatry.

PubMed

Galappathie, Nuwan; Heeramun, Ragini; Jethwa, Krishma

2009-04-01

There is a clear need for high standards of risk assessment and monitoring within forensic psychiatry. This has been highlighted by a number of high profile homicide enquires which have called for better standards of multidisciplinary risk assessment and monitoring. There are no national standards for risk assessment. We conducted a study to audit electronically the completion rate of a service-designed risk assessment document within Fromside, a medium secure unit in the UK. The completion rates for key sections of 64 risk assessment documents were assessed. Only 48 of the 64 (75%) documents were electronically available. The completion rates ranged from 59/64 (92%) for the retrospective risk review to 46/64 (72%) for relapse indicators. Only 35/64 (55%) risk documents were updated within the last three months. We found that the use of risk profile documents has helped achieve good standards of risk assessment, however greater priority needs to be given to ongoing monitoring. We recommend that consideration is given to the development of national guidelines for multidisciplinary risk assessment and monitoring.

US EPA's Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

BackgroundThe ERASC provides technical information and addresses scientific questions of concern or interest on topics relevant to ecological risk assessment at hazardous waste sites for EPA's Office of Solid Waste and Emergency Response (OSWER) personnel and the Office of Resource Conservation and Recovery (ORCR) staff. Requests are channeled to ERASC through the Ecological Risk Assessment Forum (ERAF). To assess emerging and complex scientific issues that require expert judgment, the ERASC relies on the expertise of scientists and engineers located throughout EPA's Office of Research and Development (ORD) labs and centers.ResponseERASC develops responses that reflect the state of the science for ecological risk assessment and also provides a communication point for the distribution of the responses to other interested parties. For further information, contact Ecology_ERASC@epa.gov or call 513-569-7940.

Thrombocalc: implementation and uptake of personalized postpartum venous thromboembolism risk assessment in a high-throughput obstetric environment.

PubMed

O'Shaughnessy, Fergal; Donnelly, Jennifer C; Cooley, Sharon M; Deering, Mary; Raman, Ajita; Gannon, Geraldine; Hickey, Jane; Holland, Alan; Hayes, Niamh; Bennett, Kathleen; Ní Áinle, Fionnuala; Cleary, Brian J

2017-11-01

Venous thromboembolism risk assessment (VTERA) is recommended in all pregnant and postpartum women. Our objective was to develop, pilot and implement a user-friendly electronic VTERA tool. We developed "Thrombocalc", an electronic VTERA tool using Microsoft EXCEL ™ . Thrombocalc was designed as a score-based tool to facilitate rapid assessment of all women after childbirth. Calculation of a total score estimated risk of venous thromboembolism in line with consensus guidelines. Recommendations for thromboprophylaxis were included in the VTERA output. Implementation was phased. Uptake of the VTERA tool was assessed prospectively by monitoring the proportion of women who gave birth in our institution and had a completed risk assessment. Factors affecting completion and accuracy of risk assessments were also assessed. Thrombocalc was used prospectively to risk-assess 8380 women between September 2014 and December 2015. Compliance with this tool increased dramatically throughout the study period; over 92% of women were risk-assessed in the last quarter of data collection. Compliance was not adversely affected if delivery took place out of working hours [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.03, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.93-1.14]. Risk assessment was less likely in the case of cesarean deliveries (aOR 0.66, 95% CI 0.60-0.73) and stillborn infants (aOR 0.48, 95% CI 0.29-0.79). Misclassification of risk factors led to approximately 207 (2.5%) inaccurate thromboprophylaxis recommendations. Our electronic, score-based VTERA tool provides a highly effective mechanism for rapid assessment of individual postpartum venous thromboembolism risk in a high-throughput environment. © 2017 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

A macro environmental risk assessment methodology for establishing priorities among risks to human health and the environment in the Philippines

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gernhofer, S.; Oliver, T.J.; Vasquez, R.

1994-12-31

A macro environmental risk assessment (ERA) methodology was developed for the Philippine Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) as part of the US Agency for International Development Industrial Environmental Management Project. The DENR allocates its limited resources to mitigate those environmental problems that pose the greatest threat to human health and the environment. The National Regional Industry Prioritization Strategy (NRIPS) methodology was developed as a risk assessment tool to establish a national ranking of industrial facilities. The ranking establishes regional and national priorities, based on risk factors, that DENR can use to determine the most effective allocation of itsmore » limited resources. NRIPS is a systematic framework that examines the potential risk to human health and the environment from hazardous substances released from a facility, and, in doing so, generates a relative numerical score that represents that risk. More than 3,300 facilities throughout the Philippines were evaluated successfully with the NRIPS.« less

Assessment of health risks of policies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ádám, Balázs, E-mail: badam@cmss.sdu.dk; Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen; Molnár, Ágnes, E-mail: MolnarAg@smh.ca

The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidancemore » and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.« less

BBN-Based Portfolio Risk Assessment for NASA Technology R&D Outcome

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Geuther, Steven C.; Shih, Ann T.

2016-01-01

The NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) vision falls into six strategic thrusts that are aimed to support the challenges of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). In order to achieve the goals of the ARMD vision, the Airspace Operations and Safety Program (AOSP) is committed to developing and delivering new technologies. To meet the dual challenges of constrained resources and timely technology delivery, program portfolio risk assessment is critical for communication and decision-making. This paper describes how Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is applied to assess the probability of a technology meeting the expected outcome. The network takes into account the different risk factors of technology development and implementation phases. The use of BBNs allows for all technologies of projects in a program portfolio to be separately examined and compared. In addition, the technology interaction effects are modeled through the application of object-oriented BBNs. The paper discusses the development of simplified project risk BBNs and presents various risk results. The results presented include the probability of project risks not meeting success criteria, the risk drivers under uncertainty via sensitivity analysis, and what-if analysis. Finally, the paper shows how program portfolio risk can be assessed using risk results from BBNs of projects in the portfolio.

Wind energy development: methods for assessing risks to birds and bats pre-construction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Katzner, Todd E.; Bennett, Victoria; Miller, Tricia A.; Duerr, Adam E.; Braham, Melissa A.; Hale, Amanda

2016-01-01

Wind power generation is rapidly expanding. Although wind power is a low-carbon source of energy, it can impact negatively birds and bats, either directly through fatality or indirectly by displacement or habitat loss. Pre-construction risk assessment at wind facilities within the United States is usually required only on public lands. When conducted, it generally involves a 3-tier process, with each step leading to more detailed and rigorous surveys. Preliminary site assessment (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Tier 1) is usually conducted remotely and involves evaluation of existing databases and published materials. If potentially at-risk wildlife are present and the developer wishes to continue the development process, then on-site surveys are conducted (Tier 2) to verify the presence of those species and to assess site-specific features (e.g., topography, land cover) that may influence risk from turbines. The next step in the process (Tier 3) involves quantitative or scientific studies to assess the potential risk of the proposed project to wildlife. Typical Tier-3 research may involve acoustic, aural, observational, radar, capture, tracking, or modeling studies, all designed to understand details of risk to specific species or groups of species at the given site. Our review highlights several features lacking from many risk assessments, particularly the paucity of before-and-after-control- impact (BACI) studies involving modeling and a lack of understanding of cumulative effects of wind facilities on wildlife. Both are essential to understand effective designs for pre-construction monitoring and both would help expand risk assessment beyond eagles.

School environment assessment tools to address behavioural risk factors of non-communicable diseases: A scoping review.

PubMed

Saluja, Kiran; Rawal, Tina; Bassi, Shalini; Bhaumik, Soumyadeep; Singh, Ankur; Park, Min Hae; Kinra, Sanjay; Arora, Monika

2018-06-01

We aimed to identify, describe and analyse school environment assessment (SEA) tools that address behavioural risk factors (unhealthy diet, physical inactivity, tobacco and alcohol consumption) for non-communicable diseases (NCD). We searched in MEDLINE and Web of Science, hand-searched reference lists and contacted experts. Basic characteristics, measures assessed and measurement properties (validity, reliability, usability) of identified tools were extracted. We narratively synthesized the data and used content analysis to develop a list of measures used in the SEA tools. Twenty-four SEA tools were identified, mostly from developed countries. Out of these, 15 were questionnaire based, 8 were checklists or observation based tools and one tool used a combined checklist/observation based and telephonic questionnaire approach. Only 1 SEA tool had components related to all the four NCD risk factors, 2 SEA tools has assessed three NCD risk factors (diet/nutrition, physical activity, tobacco), 10 SEA tools has assessed two NCD risk factors (diet/nutrition and physical activity) and 11 SEA tools has assessed only one of the NCD risk factor. Several measures were used in the tools to assess the four NCD risk factors, but tobacco and alcohol was sparingly included. Measurement properties were reported for 14 tools. The review provides a comprehensive list of measures used in SEA tools which could be a valuable resource to guide future development of such tools. A valid and reliable SEA tool which could simultaneously evaluate all NCD risk factors, that has been tested in different settings with varying resource availability is needed.

Developing predictive systems models to address complexity and relevance for ecological risk assessment.

PubMed

Forbes, Valery E; Calow, Peter

2013-07-01

Ecological risk assessments (ERAs) are not used as well as they could be in risk management. Part of the problem is that they often lack ecological relevance; that is, they fail to grasp necessary ecological complexities. Adding realism and complexity can be difficult and costly. We argue that predictive systems models (PSMs) can provide a way of capturing complexity and ecological relevance cost-effectively. However, addressing complexity and ecological relevance is only part of the problem. Ecological risk assessments often fail to meet the needs of risk managers by not providing assessments that relate to protection goals and by expressing risk in ratios that cannot be weighed against the costs of interventions. Once more, PSMs can be designed to provide outputs in terms of value-relevant effects that are modulated against exposure and that can provide a better basis for decision making than arbitrary ratios or threshold values. Recent developments in the modeling and its potential for implementation by risk assessors and risk managers are beginning to demonstrate how PSMs can be practically applied in risk assessment and the advantages that doing so could have. Copyright © 2013 SETAC.

Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

2013-01-01

This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

Assessment scale of risk for surgical positioning injuries 1

PubMed Central

Lopes, Camila Mendonça de Moraes; Haas, Vanderlei José; Dantas, Rosana Aparecida Spadoti; de Oliveira, Cheila Gonçalves; Galvão, Cristina Maria

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Objective: to build and validate a scale to assess the risk of surgical positioning injuries in adult patients. Method: methodological research, conducted in two phases: construction and face and content validation of the scale and field research, involving 115 patients. Results: the Risk Assessment Scale for the Development of Injuries due to Surgical Positioning contains seven items, each of which presents five subitems. The scale score ranges between seven and 35 points in which, the higher the score, the higher the patient's risk. The Content Validity Index of the scale corresponded to 0.88. The application of Student's t-test for equality of means revealed the concurrent criterion validity between the scores on the Braden scale and the constructed scale. To assess the predictive criterion validity, the association was tested between the presence of pain deriving from surgical positioning and the development of pressure ulcer, using the score on the Risk Assessment Scale for the Development of Injuries due to Surgical Positioning (p<0.001). The interrater reliability was verified using the intraclass correlation coefficient, equal to 0.99 (p<0.001). Conclusion: the scale is a valid and reliable tool, but further research is needed to assess its use in clinical practice. PMID:27579925

Assessment of BTEX-induced health risk under multiple uncertainties at a petroleum-contaminated site: An integrated fuzzy stochastic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xiaodong; Huang, Guo H.

2011-12-01

Groundwater pollution has gathered more and more attention in the past decades. Conducting an assessment of groundwater contamination risk is desired to provide sound bases for supporting risk-based management decisions. Therefore, the objective of this study is to develop an integrated fuzzy stochastic approach to evaluate risks of BTEX-contaminated groundwater under multiple uncertainties. It consists of an integrated interval fuzzy subsurface modeling system (IIFMS) and an integrated fuzzy second-order stochastic risk assessment (IFSOSRA) model. The IIFMS is developed based on factorial design, interval analysis, and fuzzy sets approach to predict contaminant concentrations under hybrid uncertainties. Two input parameters (longitudinal dispersivity and porosity) are considered to be uncertain with known fuzzy membership functions, and intrinsic permeability is considered to be an interval number with unknown distribution information. A factorial design is conducted to evaluate interactive effects of the three uncertain factors on the modeling outputs through the developed IIFMS. The IFSOSRA model can systematically quantify variability and uncertainty, as well as their hybrids, presented as fuzzy, stochastic and second-order stochastic parameters in health risk assessment. The developed approach haw been applied to the management of a real-world petroleum-contaminated site within a western Canada context. The results indicate that multiple uncertainties, under a combination of information with various data-quality levels, can be effectively addressed to provide supports in identifying proper remedial efforts. A unique contribution of this research is the development of an integrated fuzzy stochastic approach for handling various forms of uncertainties associated with simulation and risk assessment efforts.

Development of a Psychosocial Risk Screener for Siblings of Children With Cancer: Incorporating the Perspectives of Parents.

PubMed

Long, Kristin A; Pariseau, Emily M; Muriel, Anna C; Chu, Andrea; Kazak, Anne E; Alderfer, Melissa A

2018-04-03

Although many siblings experience distress after a child's cancer diagnosis, their psychosocial functioning is seldom assessed in clinical oncology settings. One barrier to systematic sibling screening is the lack of a validated, sibling-specific screening instrument. Thus, this study developed sibling-specific screening modules in English and Spanish for the Psychosocial Assessment Tool (PAT), a well-validated screener of family psychosocial risk. A purposive sample of English- and Spanish-speaking parents of children with cancer (N = 29) completed cognitive interviews to provide in-depth feedback on the development of the new PAT sibling modules. Interviews were transcribed verbatim, cleaned, and analyzed using applied thematic analysis. Items were updated iteratively according to participants' feedback. Data collection continued until saturation was reached (i.e., all items were clear and valid). Two sibling modules were developed to assess siblings' psychosocial risk at diagnosis (preexisting risk factors) and several months thereafter (reactions to cancer). Most prior PAT items were retained; however, parents recommended changes to improve screening format (separately assessing each sibling within the family and expanding response options to include "sometimes"), developmental sensitivity (developing or revising items for ages 0-2, 3-4, 5-9, and 10+ years), and content (adding items related to sibling-specific social support, global assessments of sibling risk, emotional/behavioral reactions to cancer, and social ecological factors such as family and school). Psychosocial screening requires sibling-specific screening items that correspond to preexisting risk (at diagnosis) and reactions to cancer (several months after diagnosis). Validated, sibling-specific screeners will facilitate identification of siblings with elevated psychosocial risk.

Security risk assessment: applying the concepts of fuzzy logic.

PubMed

Bajpai, Shailendra; Sachdeva, Anish; Gupta, J P

2010-01-15

Chemical process industries (CPI) handling hazardous chemicals in bulk can be attractive targets for deliberate adversarial actions by terrorists, criminals and disgruntled employees. It is therefore imperative to have comprehensive security risk management programme including effective security risk assessment techniques. In an earlier work, it has been shown that security risk assessment can be done by conducting threat and vulnerability analysis or by developing Security Risk Factor Table (SRFT). HAZOP type vulnerability assessment sheets can be developed that are scenario based. In SRFT model, important security risk bearing factors such as location, ownership, visibility, inventory, etc., have been used. In this paper, the earlier developed SRFT model has been modified using the concepts of fuzzy logic. In the modified SRFT model, two linguistic fuzzy scales (three-point and four-point) are devised based on trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. Human subjectivity of different experts associated with previous SRFT model is tackled by mapping their scores to the newly devised fuzzy scale. Finally, the fuzzy score thus obtained is defuzzyfied to get the results. A test case of a refinery is used to explain the method and compared with the earlier work.

Cost, Time, and Risk Assessment of Different Wave Energy Converter Technology Development Trajectories: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Weber, Jochem W; Laird, Daniel; Costello, Ronan

This paper presents a comparative assessment of three fundamentally different wave energy converter technology development trajectories. The three technology development trajectories are expressed and visualised as a function of technology readiness levels and technology performance levels. The assessment shows that development trajectories that initially prioritize technology readiness over technology performance are likely to require twice the development time, consume a threefold of the development cost, and are prone to a risk of technical or commercial failure of one order of magnitude higher than those development trajectories that initially prioritize technology performance over technology readiness.

Review on pen-and-paper-based observational methods for assessing ergonomic risk factors of computer work.

PubMed

Rahman, Mohd Nasrull Abdol; Mohamad, Siti Shafika

2017-01-01

Computer works are associated with Musculoskeletal Disorders (MSDs). There are several methods have been developed to assess computer work risk factor related to MSDs. This review aims to give an overview of current techniques available for pen-and-paper-based observational methods in assessing ergonomic risk factors of computer work. We searched an electronic database for materials from 1992 until 2015. The selected methods were focused on computer work, pen-and-paper observational methods, office risk factors and musculoskeletal disorders. This review was developed to assess the risk factors, reliability and validity of pen-and-paper observational method associated with computer work. Two evaluators independently carried out this review. Seven observational methods used to assess exposure to office risk factor for work-related musculoskeletal disorders were identified. The risk factors involved in current techniques of pen and paper based observational tools were postures, office components, force and repetition. From the seven methods, only five methods had been tested for reliability. They were proven to be reliable and were rated as moderate to good. For the validity testing, from seven methods only four methods were tested and the results are moderate. Many observational tools already exist, but no single tool appears to cover all of the risk factors including working posture, office component, force, repetition and office environment at office workstations and computer work. Although the most important factor in developing tool is proper validation of exposure assessment techniques, the existing observational method did not test reliability and validity. Futhermore, this review could provide the researchers with ways on how to improve the pen-and-paper-based observational method for assessing ergonomic risk factors of computer work.

Development and application of a species sensitivity distribution for temperature-induced mortality in the aquatic environment.

PubMed

de Vries, Pepijn; Tamis, Jacqueline E; Murk, Albertinka J; Smit, Mathijs G D

2008-12-01

Current European legislation has static water quality objectives for temperature effects, based on the most sensitive species. In the present study a species sensitivity distribution (SSD) for elevated temperatures is developed on the basis of temperature sensitivity data (mortality) of 50 aquatic species. The SSD applies to risk assessment of heat discharges that are localized in space or time. As collected median lethal temperatures (LT50 values) for different species depend on the acclimation temperature, the SSD is also a function of the acclimation temperature. Data from a thermal discharge in The Netherlands are used to show the applicability of the developed SSD in environmental risk assessment. Although restrictions exist in the application of the developed SSD, it is concluded that the SSD approach can be applied to assess the effects of elevated temperature. Application of the concept of SSD to temperature changes allows harmonization of environmental risk assessment for stressors in the aquatic environment. When a synchronization of the assessment methods is achieved, the steps to integration of risks from toxic and nontoxic stressors can be made.

The relevance of the early history of probability theory to current risk assessment practices in mental health care.

PubMed

Large, Matthew

2013-12-01

Probability theory is at the base of modern concepts of risk assessment in mental health. The aim of the current paper is to review the key developments in the early history of probability theory in order to enrich our understanding of current risk assessment practices.

24 CFR 35.715 - Multifamily properties receiving more than $5,000 per unit.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

..., Department of Housing and Urban Development LEAD-BASED PAINT POISONING PREVENTION IN CERTAIN RESIDENTIAL... more than $5,000 per assisted dwelling unit annually in project-based assistance. (a) Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with § 35.1320(b). A risk assessment is...

DEVELOPMENT OF LANDSCAPE INDICATORS FOR USE IN REGIONAL ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENTS

EPA Science Inventory

There is a growing need for cost effective ways to assess conditions of and risks to ecological resources at a variety of scales over broad regions. Indicators, models and assessment tools are needed to evaluate water bodies at risk to non-point source pollution and to be able t...

24 CFR 35.815 - Evaluation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... Housing and Urban Development Office of the Secretary, Department of Housing and Urban Development LEAD... Multifamily Property § 35.815 Evaluation. HUD shall conduct a risk assessment and a lead-based paint... 15, 2000, the lead-based paint inspection and risk assessment shall be conducted no later than...

Human Health Risk Assessment Strategic Research Action Plan 2016-2019

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA has designed the HHRA program to develop and apply state-of-the-science risk assessment methods to estimate risks from exposures to individual chemicals, chemical mixtures, and mixtures of chemical of chemicals and non-chemical stressors.

MULTI-MEDIA MICROBIOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY FOR MUNICIPAL WASTEWATER SLUDGES

EPA Science Inventory

In order to reduce the risk of municipal sludge to acceptable levels, the U.S. EPA has undertaken a regulatory program based on risk assessment and risk management. The key to such a program is the development of a methodology which allows the regulatory agency to quantify the re...

Development and evaluation of RAMP I - a practitioner's tool for screening of musculoskeletal disorder risk factors in manual handling.

PubMed

Lind, Carl Mikael; Forsman, Mikael; Rose, Linda Maria

2017-10-16

RAMP I is a screening tool developed to support practitioners in screening for work-related musculoskeletal disorder risk factors related to manual handling. RAMP I, which is part of the RAMP tool, is based on research-based studies combined with expert group judgments. More than 80 practitioners participated in the development of RAMP I. The tool consists of dichotomous assessment items grouped into seven categories. Acceptable reliability was found for a majority of the assessment items for 15 practitioners who were given 1 h of training. The usability evaluation points to RAMP I being usable for screening for musculoskeletal disorder risk factors, i.e., usable for assessing risks, being usable as a decision base, having clear results and that the time needed for an assessment is acceptable. It is concluded that RAMP I is a usable tool for practitioners.

Preparing for Euro 2012: developing a hazard risk assessment.

PubMed

Wong, Evan G; Razek, Tarek; Luhovy, Artem; Mogilevkina, Irina; Prudnikov, Yuriy; Klimovitskiy, Fedor; Yutovets, Yuriy; Khwaja, Kosar A; Deckelbaum, Dan L

2015-04-01

Risk assessment is a vital step in the disaster-preparedness continuum as it is the foundation of subsequent phases, including mitigation, response, and recovery. To develop a risk assessment tool geared specifically towards the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) Euro 2012. In partnership with the Donetsk National Medical University, Donetsk Research and Development Institute of Traumatology and Orthopedics, Donetsk Regional Public Health Administration, and the Ministry of Emergency of Ukraine, a table-based tool was created, which, based on historical evidence, identifies relevant potential threats, evaluates their impacts and likelihoods on graded scales based on previous available data, identifies potential mitigating shortcomings, and recommends further mitigation measures. This risk assessment tool has been applied in the vulnerability-assessment-phase of the UEFA Euro 2012. Twenty-three sub-types of potential hazards were identified and analyzed. Ten specific hazards were recognized as likely to very likely to occur, including natural disasters, bombing and blast events, road traffic collisions, and disorderly conduct. Preventative measures, such as increased stadium security and zero tolerance for impaired driving, were recommended. Mitigating factors were suggested, including clear, incident-specific preparedness plans and enhanced inter-agency communication. This hazard risk assessment tool is a simple aid in vulnerability assessment, essential for disaster preparedness and response, and may be applied broadly to future international events.

Twelve Month Prevalence of and Risk Factors for Suicide Attempts in the WHO World Mental Health Surveys

PubMed Central

Borges, Guilherme; Nock, Matthew K.; Haro Abad, Josep M.; Hwang, Irving; Sampson, Nancy A.; Alonso, Jordi; Andrade, Laura Helena; Angermeyer, Matthias C.; Beautrais, Annette; Bromet, Evelyn; Bruffaerts, Ronny; de Girolamo, Giovanni; Florescu, Silvia; Gureje, Oye; Hu, Chiyi; Karam, Elie G; Kovess-Masfety, Viviane; Lee, Sing; Levinson, Daphna; Medina-Mora, Maria Elena; Ormel, Johan; Posada-Villa, Jose; Sagar, Rajesh; Tomov, Toma; Uda, Hidenori; Williams, David R.; Kessler, Ronald C.

2009-01-01

Objective Although suicide is a leading cause of death worldwide, clinicians and researchers lack a data-driven method to assess the risk of suicide attempts. This study reports the results of an analysis of a large cross-national epidemiological survey database that estimates the 12-month prevalence of suicidal behaviors, identifies risk factors for suicide attempts, and combines these factors to create a risk index for 12-month suicide attempts separately for developed and developing countries. Method Data come from the WHO World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys (conducted 2001–2007) in which 108,705 adults from 21 countries were interviewed using the WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). The survey assessed suicidal behaviors and potential risk factors across multiple domains including: socio-demographics, parent psychopathology, childhood adversities, DSM-IV disorders, and history of suicidal behavior. Results Twelve-month prevalence estimates of suicide ideation, plans and attempts are 2.0%, 0.6% and 0.3% respectively for developed countries and 2.1%, 0.7% and 0.4% for developing countries. Risk factors for suicidal behaviors in both developed and developing countries include: female sex, younger age, lower education and income, unmarried status, unemployment, parent psychopathology, childhood adversities, and presence of diverse 12-month DSM-IV mental disorders. Combining risk factors from multiple domains produced risk indices that accurately predicted 12-month suicide attempts in both developed and developing countries (AUC=.74–.80). Conclusion Suicidal behaviors occur at similar rates in both developed and developing countries. Risk indices assessing multiple domains can predict suicide attempts with fairly good accuracy and may be useful in aiding clinicians in the prediction of these behaviors. PMID:20816034

Assessing Pesticides under the Endangered Species Act

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA’s pesticide risk assessment and regulatory processes ensure that protections are in place for all populations of non-target species. We have developed risk assessment procedures to determine potential for harm to individuals of a listed species.

Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk Assessment for the Hypothetical PDC17 Impact Exercise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wheeler, Lorien; Mathias, Donovan

2017-01-01

Performing impact risk assessment for the 2017 Planetary Defense Conference (PDC17) hypothetical impact exercise, to take place at the PDC17 conference, May 15-20, 2017. Impact scenarios and trajectories are developed and provided by NASA's Near Earth Objects Office at JPL (Paul Chodas). These results represent purely hypothetical impact scenarios, and do not reflect any known asteroid threat. Risk assessment was performed using the Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) model developed by the Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP) at NASA Ames Research Center. This presentation includes sample results that may be presented or used in discussions during the various stages of the impact exercisecenter dot Some cases represent alternate scenario options that may not be used during the actual impact exercise at the PDC17 conference. Updates to these initial assessments and/or additional scenario assessments may be performed throughout the impact exercise as different scenario options unfold.

Overview of DOE-NE Proliferation and Terrorism Risk Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sadasivan, Pratap

2012-08-24

Research objectives are: (1) Develop technologies and other solutions that can improve the reliability, sustain the safety, and extend the life of current reactors; (2) Develop improvements in the affordability of new reactors to enable nuclear energy; (3) Develop Sustainable Nuclear Fuel Cycles; and (4) Understand and minimize the risks of nuclear proliferation and terrorism. The goal is to enable the use of risk information to inform NE R&D program planning. The PTRA program supports DOE-NE's goal of using risk information to inform R&D program planning. The FY12 PTRA program is focused on terrorism risk. The program includes a mixmore » of innovative methods that support the general practice of risk assessments, and selected applications.« less

Got risk? risk-centric perspective for spacecraft technology decision-making

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feather, Martin S.; Cornford, Steven L.; Moran, Kelly

2004-01-01

A risk-based decision-making methodology conceived and developed at JPL and NASA has been used to aid in decision making for spacecraft technology assessment, adoption, development and operation. It takes a risk-centric perspective, through which risks are used as a reasoning step to interpose between mission objectives and risk mitigation measures.

Safety assessment, detection and traceability, and societal aspects of genetically modified foods. European Network on Safety Assessment of Genetically Modified Food Crops (ENTRANSFOOD). Concluding remarks.

PubMed

Kuiper, H A; König, A; Kleter, G A; Hammes, W P; Knudsen, I

2004-07-01

The most important results from the EU-sponsored ENTRANSFOOD Thematic Network project are reviewed, including the design of a detailed step-wise procedure for the risk assessment of foods derived from genetically modified crops based on the latest scientific developments, evaluation of topical risk assessment issues, and the formulation of proposals for improved risk management and public involvement in the risk analysis process. Copyright 2004 Elsevier Ltd.

Risk analysis and technology assessment in support of technology development: Putting responsible innovation in practice in a case study for nanotechnology.

PubMed

van Wezel, Annemarie P; van Lente, Harro; van de Sandt, Johannes Jm; Bouwmeester, Hans; Vandeberg, Rens Lj; Sips, Adrienne Jam

2018-01-01

Governments invest in "key enabling technologies," such as nanotechnology, to solve societal challenges and boost the economy. At the same time, governmental agencies demand risk reduction to prohibit any often unknown adverse effects, and industrial parties demand smart approaches to reduce uncertainties. Responsible research and innovation (RRI) is therefore a central theme in policy making. Risk analysis and technology assessment, together referred to as "RATA," can provide a basis to assess human, environmental, and societal risks of new technological developments during the various stages of technological development. This assessment can help both governmental authorities and innovative industry to move forward in a sustainable manner. Here we describe the developed procedures and products and our experiences to bring RATA in practice within a large Dutch nanotechnology consortium. This is an example of how to put responsible innovation in practice as an integrated part of a research program, how to increase awareness of RATA, and how to help technology developers perform and use RATA. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:9-16. © 2017 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC). © 2017 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Development of good modelling practice for phsiologically based pharmacokinetic models for use in risk assessment: The first steps

EPA Science Inventory

The increasing use of tissue dosimetry estimated using pharmacokinetic models in chemical risk assessments in multiple countries necessitates the need to develop internationally recognized good modelling practices. These practices would facilitate sharing of models and model eva...

NONINDIGENOUS PATHOGENIC SHRIMP VIRUS INTRODUCTIONS INTO THE UNITED STATES: DEVELOPING A QUALITATIVE ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Nonindigenous Pathogenic Shrimp Virus Introductions into the United States: Developing a Qualitative Ecological Risk Assessment. Austin, R.K.; van der Schalie, W.R.; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC; Menzie, C.; Menzie-Cura and Associates, Chelmsford, MA; Fair...

APPLICATION OF METABOLOMICS FOR IMPROVING ECOLOGICAL EXPOSURE AND RISK ASSESSMENTS

EPA Science Inventory

We have developed a research program in metabolomics that involves numerous partners across EPA, other federal labs, academia, and the private sector. A primary goal is to develop metabolite-based markers that can be used by EPA in ecological exposure and risk assessments. We are...

Systematic Review: Concept and Tool Development with Application in the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Assessment Process

EPA Science Inventory

Systematic Review: Concept and tool development with application to the National Toxicology Program (NTP) and the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Assessment Processes. There is growing interest within the environmental health community to incorporate systematic review m...

Automated Pressure Injury Risk Assessment System Incorporated Into an Electronic Health Record System.

PubMed

Jin, Yinji; Jin, Taixian; Lee, Sun-Mi

Pressure injury risk assessment is the first step toward preventing pressure injuries, but traditional assessment tools are time-consuming, resulting in work overload and fatigue for nurses. The objectives of the study were to build an automated pressure injury risk assessment system (Auto-PIRAS) that can assess pressure injury risk using data, without requiring nurses to collect or input additional data, and to evaluate the validity of this assessment tool. A retrospective case-control study and a system development study were conducted in a 1,355-bed university hospital in Seoul, South Korea. A total of 1,305 pressure injury patients and 5,220 nonpressure injury patients participated for the development of a risk scoring algorithm: 687 and 2,748 for the validation of the algorithm and 237 and 994 for validation after clinical implementation, respectively. A total of 4,211 pressure injury-related clinical variables were extracted from the electronic health record (EHR) systems to develop a risk scoring algorithm, which was validated and incorporated into the EHR. That program was further evaluated for predictive and concurrent validity. Auto-PIRAS, incorporated into the EHR system, assigned a risk assessment score of high, moderate, or low and displayed this on the Kardex nursing record screen. Risk scores were updated nightly according to 10 predetermined risk factors. The predictive validity measures of the algorithm validation stage were as follows: sensitivity = .87, specificity = .90, positive predictive value = .68, negative predictive value = .97, Youden index = .77, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = .95. The predictive validity measures of the Braden Scale were as follows: sensitivity = .77, specificity = .93, positive predictive value = .72, negative predictive value = .95, Youden index = .70, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = .85. The kappa of the Auto-PIRAS and Braden Scale risk classification result was .73. The predictive performance of the Auto-PIRAS was similar to Braden Scale assessments conducted by nurses. Auto-PIRAS is expected to be used as a system that assesses pressure injury risk automatically without additional data collection by nurses.

The development and validation of a carer questionnaire to assess cognitive function in neuropsychiatric patients.

PubMed

Randhawa, Sharan; Walterfang, Mark; Miller, Kathryn; Scholes, Amelia; Mocellin, Ramon; Velakoulis, Dennis

2007-07-01

The carer history is an integral part of the assessment of patients with cognitive impairment. We aimed to develop a comprehensive yet concise carer questionnaire, the CogRisk, which captures actuarial risk variables for cognitive impairment in addition to key symptoms suggestive of cognitive decline in a number of cognitive domains, and to then assess its validity and reliability in a neuropsychiatric population. Carers of patients assessed for cognitive impairment completed the CogRisk, and patients were clinically assessed using the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and Neuropsychiatry Unit COGnitive assessment tool (NUCOG). Reliability was assessed using test-retest and interrater measures and measures of internal consistency. Construct and concurrent validity was assessed using correlation between total and subscale scores on the CogRisk, total scores on the NUCOG and MMSE, and subscale scores on the NUCOG. Predictive validity was determined using measures of sensitivity and specificity and using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) methods. The CogRisk was completed by all carers in less than 10 min. The total CogRisk score correlated significantly with total MMSE and NUCOG scores (r=-0.511 and -0.563, respectively) and remained highly significant when age and education were controlled for. Internal consistency of CogRisk items was high (alpha=0.943). Intrarater reliability of the CogRisk was high with an intraclass correlation coefficient of .978 (P<.001), and interrater reliability between carers was also high at 0.868 (P<.05). Sensitivity and specificity for the detection of dementia were .70 and .73, respectively, with area under the ROC curve not significantly different from that of the MMSE or NUCOG. The CogRisk is a brief carer-rated tool of a patient's cognitive functioning developed for use within a neuropsychiatric setting. It exhibited good concurrent validity, internal consistency, and interrater and intrarater reliability. The CogRisk also demonstrated good sensitivity and specificity for dementia. The CogRisk provides carer information, which complements the clinical assessment and can be used to focus on direct carer interview.

Distance education course on spatial multi-hazard risk assessment, using Open Source software

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Westen, C. J.; Frigerio, S.

2009-04-01

As part of the capacity building activities of the United Nations University - ITC School on Disaster Geo-Information Management (UNU-ITC DGIM) the International Institute for Geoinformation Science and Earth Observation (ITC) has developed a distance education course on the application of Geographic Information Systems for multi-hazard risk assessment. This course is designed for academic staff, as well as for professionals working in (non-) governmental organizations where knowledge of disaster risk management is essential. The course guides the participants through the entire process of risk assessment, on the basis of a case study of a city exposed to multiple hazards, in a developing country. The courses consists of eight modules, each with a guide book explaining the theoretical background, and guiding the participants through spatial data requirements for risk assessment, hazard assessment procedures, generation of elements at risk databases, vulnerability assessment, qualitative and quantitative risk assessment methods, risk evaluation and risk reduction. Linked to the theory is a large set of exercises, with exercise descriptions, answer sheets, demos and GIS data. The exercises deal with four different types of hazards: earthquakes, flooding, technological hazards, and landslides. One important consideration in designing the course is that people from developing countries should not be restricted in using it due to financial burdens for software acquisition. Therefore the aim was to use Open Source software as a basis. The GIS exercises are written for the ILWIS software. All exercises have also been integrated into a WebGIS, using the Open source software CartoWeb (based on GNU License). It is modular and customizable thanks to its object-oriented architecture and based on a hierarchical structure (to manage and organize every package of information of every step required in risk assessment). Different switches for every component of the risk assessment course have been defined and through various menus the user can define the options for every exercise. For every layer of information tools for querying, printing, searching and surface analysis are implemented, allowing the option to compare maps at different scale and for on-line interpretations.

Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World – the Roskilde Recommendations

EPA Science Inventory

Roskilde University hosted a November 2015 workshop on “Environmental Risk – Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World”. Thirty attendees from 9 countries developed consensus recommendations regarding: implementation of a common currency (ecosyst...

Ecological Risk Assessment and Implications for Environmental Management

EPA Science Inventory

Environmental risk assessment was developed to provide scientific input to environmental decision making. Managers need to know the conditions in the environment, the causes of those conditions, the risks and benefits or alternative actions, and the actual outcomes of the impleme...

Realization of a service for the long-term risk assessment of diabetes-related complications.

PubMed

Lagani, Vincenzo; Chiarugi, Franco; Manousos, Dimitris; Verma, Vivek; Fursse, Joanna; Marias, Kostas; Tsamardinos, Ioannis

2015-07-01

We present a computerized system for the assessment of the long-term risk of developing diabetes-related complications. The core of the system consists of a set of predictive models, developed through a data-mining/machine-learning approach, which are able to evaluate individual patient profiles and provide personalized risk assessments. Missing data is a common issue in (electronic) patient records, thus the models are paired with a module for the intelligent management of missing information. The system has been deployed and made publicly available as Web service, and it has been fully integrated within the diabetes-management platform developed by the European project REACTION. Preliminary usability tests showed that the clinicians judged the models useful for risk assessment and for communicating the risk to the patient. Furthermore, the system performs as well as the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Risk Engine when both systems are tested on an independent cohort of UK diabetes patients. Our work provides a working example of risk-stratification tool that is (a) specific for diabetes patients, (b) able to handle several different diabetes related complications, (c) performing as well as the widely known UKPDS Risk Engine on an external validation cohort. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk-based Process Development of Biosimilars as Part of the Quality by Design Paradigm.

PubMed

Zalai, Dénes; Dietzsch, Christian; Herwig, Christoph

2013-01-01

In the last few years, several quality by design (QbD) studies demonstrated the benefit of systematic approaches for biopharmaceutical development. However, only very few studies identified biosimilars as a special case of product development. The targeted quality profile of biosimilars is strictly defined by the originator's product characteristic. Moreover, the major source of prior knowledge is the experience with the originator product itself. Processing this information in biosimilar development has a major effect on risk management and process development strategies. The main objective of this contribution is to demonstrate how risk management can facilitate the implementation of QbD in early-stage product development with special emphasis on fitting the reported approaches to biosimilars. Risk assessments were highlighted as important tools to integrate prior knowledge in biosimilar development. The risk assessment process as suggested by the International Conference on Harmonization (ICH Q9) was reviewed and three elements were identified to play a key role in targeted risk assessment approaches: proper understanding of target linkage, risk assessment tool compliance, and criticality threshold value. Adjusting these steps to biosimilar applications helped to address some unique challenges of these products such as a strictly defined quality profile or a lack of process knowledge. This contribution demonstrates the need for tailored risk management approaches for the risk-based development of biosimilars and provides novel tools for the integration of additional knowledge available for these products. The pharmaceutical industry is facing challenges such as profit loss and price competition. Companies are forced to rationalize business models and to cut costs in development as well as manufacturing. These trends recently hinder the implementation of any concepts that do not offer certain financial benefit or promise a long return of investment. Quality by design (QbD) is a concept that is currently struggling for more acceptance from the side of the pharmaceutical industry. To achieve this, the major goals of QbD have to be revisited and QbD tools have to be subsequently developed. This contribution offers an example as to how implement risk management in early-stage biosimilar development as part of the QbD concept. The main goal was to go beyond the conventional QbD workflow and to adjust risk management to the challenges of biosimilar products. Accordingly, instead of using methods like failure mode and effects analysis, recommendations of the ICH Q9 guideline were reviewed and put into practice by creating tailored risk assessment tools. The novelty of this contribution is to report those tailored tools ready-to-use for early bioprocess development of biosimilars along QbD principles.

Assessment and evaluation of the high risk neonate: the NICU Network Neurobehavioral Scale.

PubMed

Lester, Barry M; Andreozzi-Fontaine, Lynne; Tronick, Edward; Bigsby, Rosemarie

2014-08-25

There has been a long-standing interest in the assessment of the neurobehavioral integrity of the newborn infant. The NICU Network Neurobehavioral Scale (NNNS) was developed as an assessment for the at-risk infant. These are infants who are at increased risk for poor developmental outcome because of insults during prenatal development, such as substance exposure or prematurity or factors such as poverty, poor nutrition or lack of prenatal care that can have adverse effects on the intrauterine environment and affect the developing fetus. The NNNS assesses the full range of infant neurobehavioral performance including neurological integrity, behavioral functioning, and signs of stress/abstinence. The NNNS is a noninvasive neonatal assessment tool with demonstrated validity as a predictor, not only of medical outcomes such as cerebral palsy diagnosis, neurological abnormalities, and diseases with risks to the brain, but also of developmental outcomes such as mental and motor functioning, behavior problems, school readiness, and IQ. The NNNS can identify infants at high risk for abnormal developmental outcome and is an important clinical tool that enables medical researchers and health practitioners to identify these infants and develop intervention programs to optimize the development of these infants as early as possible. The video shows the NNNS procedures, shows examples of normal and abnormal performance and the various clinical populations in which the exam can be used.

Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems: Modeling Individual Steps of a Risk Assessment Process

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shah, Anuj; Castleton, Karl J.; Hoopes, Bonnie L.

2004-06-01

The study of the release and effects of chemicals in the environment and their associated risks to humans is central to public and private decision making. FRAMES 1.X, Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems, is a systems modeling software platform, developed by PNNL, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, that helps scientists study the release and effects of chemicals on a source to outcome basis, create environmental models for similar risk assessment and management problems. The unique aspect of FRAMES is to dynamically introduce software modules representing individual components of a risk assessment (e.g., source release of contaminants, fate andmore » transport in various environmental media, exposure, etc.) within a software framework, manipulate their attributes and run simulations to obtain results. This paper outlines the fundamental constituents of FRAMES 2.X, an enhanced version of FRAMES 1.X, that greatly improve the ability of the module developers to “plug” their self-developed software modules into the system. The basic design, the underlying principles and a discussion of the guidelines for module developers are presented.« less

Development of the Methodology Needed to Quantify Risks to Groundwater at CO2 Storage Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, C. F.; Birkholzer, J. T.; Carroll, S.; Hakala, A.; Keating, E. H.; Lopano, C. L.; Newell, D. L.; Spycher, N.

2011-12-01

The National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) is an effort that harnesses capabilities across five U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) national laboratories into a mission-focused platform to develop a defensible, science-based quantitative methodology for determining risk profiles at CO2 storage sites. NRAP is conducting risk and uncertainty analysis in the areas of reservoir performance, natural leakage pathways, wellbore integrity, groundwater protection, monitoring, and systems level modeling. The mission of NRAP is "to provide the scientific underpinning for risk assessment with respect to the long-term storage of CO2, including assessment of residual risk associated with a site post-closure." Additionally, NRAP will develop a strategic, risk-based monitoring protocol, such that monitoring at all stages of a project effectively minimizes uncertainty in the predicted behavior of the site, thereby increasing confidence in storage integrity. NRAP's research focus in the area of groundwater protection is divided into three main tasks: 1) development of quantitative risk profiles for potential groundwater impacts; 2) filling key science gaps in developing those risk profiles; and 3) field-based confirmation. Within these three tasks, researchers are engaged in collaborative studies to determine metrics to identify system perturbation and their associated risk factors. Reservoir simulations are being performed to understand/predict consequences of hypothetical leakage scenarios, from which reduced order models are being developed to feed risk profile development. Both laboratory-based experiments and reactive transport modeling studies provide estimates of geochemical impacts over a broad range of leakage scenarios. This presentation will provide an overview of the research objectives within NRAP's groundwater protection focus area, as well as select accomplishments achieved to date.

Water risk assessment in China based on the improved Water Risk Filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, G.; Yaqin, Q.; Qiong, L.; Cunwen, N.; Na, W.; Jiajia, L.; Jongde, G.; Na, Z.; Xiangyi, D.

2014-09-01

Finding an effective way to deal with the water crisis and the relationship between water and development is a major issue for all levels of government and different economic sectors across the world. Scientific understanding of water risk is the basis for achieving a scientific relationship between water and development, and water risk assessment is currently an important research focus. To effectively deal with the global water crisis, the World Wide Fund for Nature and German Investment and Development Company Limited proposed the concept of water risk and released an online Water Risk Filter in March 2012, which has been applied to at least 85 countries. To comprehensively and accurately reflect the situation of water risk in China, this study adjusts the water risk assessment indicators in the Water Risk Filter, taking the actual situation in China and the difficulty of obtaining the information about the indicators into account, and proposes an index system for water risk evaluation for China which consists of physical risk, regulatory risk and reputational risk. The improved Water Risk Filter is further used to assess the sources and causes of the water risks in 10 first-class and seven second-class water resource areas (WRAs). The results indicate that the water risk for the whole country is generally medium and low, while those for different regions in the country vary greatly, and those for southern regions are generally lower than those for northern regions. Government regulatory and policy implementation as well as media supervision in northern regions should be strengthened to reduce the water risk. The research results may provide decision support and references for both governments and industrial enterprises in identifying water risks, formulating prevention and control policies, and improving water resources management in China.

Risk analysis within environmental impact assessment of proposed construction activity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zeleňáková, Martina; Zvijáková, Lenka

Environmental impact assessment is an important process, prior to approval of the investment plan, providing a detailed examination of the likely and foreseeable impacts of proposed construction activity on the environment. The objective of this paper is to develop a specific methodology for the analysis and evaluation of environmental impacts of selected constructions – flood protection structures using risk analysis methods. The application of methodology designed for the process of environmental impact assessment will develop assumptions for further improvements or more effective implementation and performance of this process. The main objective of the paper is to improve the implementation ofmore » the environmental impact assessment process. Through the use of risk analysis methods in environmental impact assessment process, the set objective has been achieved. - Highlights: This paper is informed by an effort to develop research with the aim of: • Improving existing qualitative and quantitative methods for assessing the impacts • A better understanding of relations between probabilities and consequences • Methodology for the EIA of flood protection constructions based on risk analysis • Creative approaches in the search for environmentally friendly proposed activities.« less

Fall risk assessment and prevention.

PubMed

Kline, Nancy E; Davis, Mary Elizabeth; Thom, Bridgette

2011-02-01

Patient falls are a common cause of morbidity and are the leading cause of injury deaths in adults age 65 years and older. Injuries sustained as result of falls in a cancer hospital are often severe, regardless of patient age, due to the nature of the underlying cancer. Falls are a nursing-sensitive indicator and nurses are in a unique position to assess, design, implement, and evaluate programs for fall risk reduction. We analyzed our nursing processes related to falls and fall prevention in conjunction with an evidence-based review, a research study to improve our fall risk-assessment process, and development of a comprehensive fall-reduction program. This article outlines how our institution developed a fall risk assessment for the oncology patient population, and utilized this assessment in a comprehensive nursing approach to fall prevention in both inpatient and outpatient settings.

Violence prevention at work. A business perspective.

PubMed

Wilkinson, C W

2001-02-01

The risk of workplace violence varies depending on the type and location of the business. Business managers should assess violence risk and develop a program based on the level of risk faced by their employees. This assessment should include: (1) a review of workplace security and identification of positions with increased risk of exposure to violence, (2) risk reduction through environmental design and employee training, (3) development of a plan and identification of professional resources to respond to incidents should they occur, and (4) communication of the employer's commitment to providing a safe work environment for employees. For most businesses, threat assessment and management comprise the cornerstone of a workplace violence-prevention program. Planning and preparation are key to workplace violence prevention.

Review of various approaches for assessing public health risks in regulatory decision making: choosing the right approach for the problem.

PubMed

Dearfield, Kerry L; Hoelzer, Karin; Kause, Janell R

2014-08-01

Stakeholders in the public health risk analysis community can possess differing opinions about what is meant by "conduct a risk assessment." In reality, there is no one-size-fits-all risk assessment that can address all public health issues, problems, and regulatory needs. Although several international and national organizations (e.g., Codex Alimentarius Commission, Office International des Epizooties, Food and Agricultural Organization, World Health Organization, National Research Council, and European Food Safety Authority) have addressed this issue, confusion remains. The type and complexity of a risk assessment must reflect the risk management needs to appropriately inform a regulatory or nonregulatory decision, i.e., a risk assessment is ideally "fit for purpose" and directly applicable to risk management issues of concern. Frequently however, there is a lack of understanding by those not completely familiar with risk assessment regarding the specific utility of different approaches for assessing public health risks. This unfamiliarity can unduly hamper the acceptance of risk assessment results by risk managers and may reduce the usefulness of such results for guiding public health policies, practices, and operations. Differences in interpretation of risk assessment terminology further complicate effective communication among risk assessors, risk managers, and stakeholders. This article provides an overview of the types of risk assessments commonly conducted, with examples primarily from the food and agricultural sectors, and a discussion of the utility and limitations of these specific approaches for assessing public health risks. Clarification of the risk management issues and corresponding risk assessment design needs during the formative stages of the risk analysis process is a key step for ensuring that the most appropriate assessment of risk is developed and used to guide risk management decisions.

76 FR 50729 - Science Advisory Board Staff Office; Notification of a Public Teleconference of the Chartered...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-08-16

... SAB report, Peer Review of EPA's Draft National-Scale Mercury Risk Assessment (08/04/11) Draft. DATES... SAB draft report entitled Peer Review of EPA's Draft National-Scale Mercury Risk Assessment (08/04/1...)(1)(A) of the Clean Air Act (CAA). EPA developed a draft risk assessment for mercury, entitled...

Contribution of European research to risk analysis.

PubMed

Boenke, A

2001-12-01

The European Commission's, Quality of Life Research Programme, Key Action 1-Health, Food & Nutrition is mission-oriented and aims, amongst other things, at providing a healthy, safe and high-quality food supply leading to reinforced consumer confidence in the safety, of European food. Its objectives also include the enhancing of the competitiveness of the European food supply. Key Action 1 is currently supporting a number of different types of European collaborative projects in the area of risk analysis. The objectives of these projects range from the development and validation of prevention strategies including the reduction of consumers risks; development and validation of new modelling approaches, harmonization of risk assessment principles methodologies and terminology; standardization of methods and systems used for the safety evaluation of transgenic food; providing of tools for the evaluation of human viral contamination of shellfish and quality control; new methodologies for assessing the potential of unintended effects of genetically modified (genetically modified) foods; development of a risk assessment model for Cryptosporidium parvum related to the food and water industries, to the development of a communication platform for genetically modified organism, producers, retailers, regulatory authorities and consumer groups to improve safety assessment procedures, risk management strategies and risk communication; development and validation of new methods for safety testing of transgenic food; evaluation of the safety and efficacy of iron supplementation in pregnant women, evaluation of the potential cancer-preventing activity of pro- and pre-biotic ('synbiotic') combinations in human volunteers. An overview of these projects is presented here.

Genetically modified crops and aquatic ecosystems: considerations for environmental risk assessment and non-target organism testing.

PubMed

Carstens, Keri; Anderson, Jennifer; Bachman, Pamela; De Schrijver, Adinda; Dively, Galen; Federici, Brian; Hamer, Mick; Gielkens, Marco; Jensen, Peter; Lamp, William; Rauschen, Stefan; Ridley, Geoff; Romeis, Jörg; Waggoner, Annabel

2012-08-01

Environmental risk assessments (ERA) support regulatory decisions for the commercial cultivation of genetically modified (GM) crops. The ERA for terrestrial agroecosystems is well-developed, whereas guidance for ERA of GM crops in aquatic ecosystems is not as well-defined. The purpose of this document is to demonstrate how comprehensive problem formulation can be used to develop a conceptual model and to identify potential exposure pathways, using Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) maize as a case study. Within problem formulation, the insecticidal trait, the crop, the receiving environment, and protection goals were characterized, and a conceptual model was developed to identify routes through which aquatic organisms may be exposed to insecticidal proteins in maize tissue. Following a tiered approach for exposure assessment, worst-case exposures were estimated using standardized models, and factors mitigating exposure were described. Based on exposure estimates, shredders were identified as the functional group most likely to be exposed to insecticidal proteins. However, even using worst-case assumptions, the exposure of shredders to Bt maize was low and studies supporting the current risk assessments were deemed adequate. Determining if early tier toxicity studies are necessary to inform the risk assessment for a specific GM crop should be done on a case by case basis, and should be guided by thorough problem formulation and exposure assessment. The processes used to develop the Bt maize case study are intended to serve as a model for performing risk assessments on future traits and crops.

Risk assessment principle for engineered nanotechnology in food and drug.

PubMed

Hwang, Myungsil; Lee, Eun Ji; Kweon, Se Young; Park, Mi Sun; Jeong, Ji Yoon; Um, Jun Ho; Kim, Sun Ah; Han, Bum Suk; Lee, Kwang Ho; Yoon, Hae Jung

2012-06-01

While the ability to develop nanomaterials and incorporate them into products is advancing rapidly worldwide, understanding of the potential health safety effects of nanomaterials has proceeded at a much slower pace. Since 2008, Korea Food and Drug Administration (KFDA) started an investigation to prepare "Strategic Action Plan" to evaluate safety and nano risk management associated with foods, drugs, medical devices and cosmetics using nano-scale materials. Although there are some studies related to potential risk of nanomaterials, physical-chemical characterization of nanomaterials is not clear yet and these do not offer enough information due to their limitations. Their uncertainties make it impossible to determine whether nanomaterials are actually hazardous to human. According to the above mention, we have some problems to conduct the human exposure risk assessment currently. On the other hand, uncertainty about safety may lead to polarized public debate and to businesses unwillingness for further nanotechnology investigation. Therefore, the criteria and methods to assess possible adverse effects of nanomaterials have been vigorously taken into consideration by many international organizations: the World Health Organization, the Organization for Economic and Commercial Development and the European Commission. The object of this study was to develop risk assessment principles for safety management of future nanoproducts and also to identify areas of research to strengthen risk assessment for nanomaterials. The research roadmaps which were proposed in this study will be helpful to fill up the current gaps in knowledge relevant nano risk assessment.

Exploring barriers to assessment of bereavement risk in palliative care: perspectives of key stakeholders.

PubMed

Sealey, Margaret; O'Connor, Moira; Aoun, Samar M; Breen, Lauren J

2015-10-14

Palliative care standards advocate support for grieving caregivers, given that some bereaved people fail to integrate their loss, experience ongoing emotional suffering and adverse health outcomes. Research shows that bereavement support tends to be delivered on an ad hoc basis without formal assessment of risk or need. To align support with need, assessment of bereavement risk is necessary. The overall aim is to develop a bereavement risk assessment model, based on a three-tiered public health model, congruent with palliative care bereavement standards for use in palliative care in Western Australia. The specific aim of this phase of the study was to explore the perspectives of key stakeholders and to highlight issues in relation to the practice of bereavement risk assessment in palliative care. Action research, a cyclical process that involves working collaboratively with stakeholders, was considered as the best method to effect feasible change in practice. The nine participants were multidisciplinary health professionals from five palliative care services, and a bereaved former caregiver. Data were obtained from participants via three 90 min group meetings conducted over five weeks. An inductive thematic analysis approach was used to analyse data following each meeting until saturation was reached, and the research team was satisfied that the themes were congruent with research aims. Existing measures were found unsuitable to assess bereavement risk in palliative care. Assessment following the patient's death presented substantial barriers, directing assessment to the pre-death period. Four themes were identified relating to issues in need of consideration to develop a risk assessment model. These were systems of care, encompassing logistics of contact with caregivers; gatekeeping; conflation between caregiver stress, burden and grief; and a way forward. These group discussions provide a data-driven explanation of the issues affecting bereavement risk assessment in palliative care settings. A number of barriers will need to be overcome before assessment can become routine practice. We recommend the development of a brief, pre-death caregiver self-report measure of bereavement risk that may empower caregivers, lead to early intervention, and allow staff to remain focused on patient care, reducing burden on staff and palliative care services.

Development of a Fall-Risk Self-Assessment for Community-Dwelling Seniors

PubMed Central

Vivrette, Rebecca L.; Rubenstein, Laurence Z.; Martin, Jennifer L.; Josephson, Karen R.; Kramer, B. Josea

2012-01-01

Objective To determine seniors’ beliefs about falls and design a fall-risk self-assessment and educational materials to promote early identification of evidence-based fall risks and encourage prevention behaviors. Methods Focus groups with community-dwelling seniors, conducted in two phases to identify perceptions about fall risks and risk reduction and to assess face validity of the fall-risk self-assessment and acceptability of educational materials. Results Lay perception of fall risks was in general concordance with evidence-based research. Maintaining independence and positive tone were perceived as key motivators for fall prevention. Seniors intended to use information in the educational tool to stimulate discussions about falls with health care providers. Implications An evidence-based, educational fall-risk self-assessment acceptable to older adults can build on existing lay knowledge about fall risks and perception that falls are a relevant problem and can educate seniors about their specific risks and how to minimize them. PMID:21285473

Bridging the etiologic and prognostic outlooks in individualized assessment of absolute risk of an illness: application in lung cancer.

PubMed

Karp, Igor; Sylvestre, Marie-Pierre; Abrahamowicz, Michal; Leffondré, Karen; Siemiatycki, Jack

2016-11-01

Assessment of individual risk of illness is an important activity in preventive medicine. Development of risk-assessment models has heretofore relied predominantly on studies involving follow-up of cohort-type populations, while case-control studies have generally been considered unfit for this purpose. To present a method for individualized assessment of absolute risk of an illness (as illustrated by lung cancer) based on data from a 'non-nested' case-control study. We used data from a case-control study conducted in Montreal, Canada in 1996-2001. Individuals diagnosed with lung cancer (n = 920) and age- and sex-matched lung-cancer-free subjects (n = 1288) completed questionnaires documenting life-time cigarette-smoking history and occupational, medical, and family history. Unweighted and weighted logistic models were fitted. Model overfitting was assessed using bootstrap-based cross-validation and 'shrinkage.' The discriminating ability was assessed by the c-statistic, and the risk-stratifying performance was assessed by examination of the variability in risk estimates over hypothetical risk-profiles. In the logistic models, the logarithm of incidence-density of lung cancer was expressed as a function of age, sex, cigarette-smoking history, history of respiratory conditions and exposure to occupational carcinogens, and family history of lung cancer. The models entailed a minimal degree of overfitting ('shrinkage' factor: 0.97 for both unweighted and weighted models) and moderately high discriminating ability (c-statistic: 0.82 for the unweighted model and 0.66 for the weighted model). The method's risk-stratifying performance was quite high. The presented method allows for individualized assessment of risk of lung cancer and can be used for development of risk-assessment models for other illnesses.

How credible are the study results? Evaluating and applying internal validity tools to literature-based assessments of environmental health hazards

PubMed Central

Rooney, Andrew A.; Cooper, Glinda S.; Jahnke, Gloria D.; Lam, Juleen; Morgan, Rebecca L.; Boyles, Abee L.; Ratcliffe, Jennifer M.; Kraft, Andrew D.; Schünemann, Holger J.; Schwingl, Pamela; Walker, Teneille D.; Thayer, Kristina A.; Lunn, Ruth M.

2016-01-01

Environmental health hazard assessments are routinely relied upon for public health decision-making. The evidence base used in these assessments is typically developed from a collection of diverse sources of information of varying quality. It is critical that literature-based evaluations consider the credibility of individual studies used to reach conclusions through consistent, transparent and accepted methods. Systematic review procedures address study credibility by assessing internal validity or “risk of bias” — the assessment of whether the design and conduct of a study compromised the credibility of the link between exposure/intervention and outcome. This paper describes the commonalities and differences in risk-of-bias methods developed or used by five groups that conduct or provide methodological input for performing environmental health hazard assessments: the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) Working Group, the Navigation Guide, the National Toxicology Program’s (NTP) Office of Health Assessment and Translation (OHAT) and Office of the Report on Carcinogens (ORoC), and the Integrated Risk Information System of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA-IRIS). Each of these groups have been developing and applying rigorous assessment methods for integrating across a heterogeneous collection of human and animal studies to inform conclusions on potential environmental health hazards. There is substantial consistency across the groups in the consideration of risk-of-bias issues or “domains” for assessing observational human studies. There is a similar overlap in terms of domains addressed for animal studies; however, the groups differ in the relative emphasis placed on different aspects of risk of bias. Future directions for the continued harmonization and improvement of these methods are also discussed. PMID:26857180

How credible are the study results? Evaluating and applying internal validity tools to literature-based assessments of environmental health hazards.

PubMed

Rooney, Andrew A; Cooper, Glinda S; Jahnke, Gloria D; Lam, Juleen; Morgan, Rebecca L; Boyles, Abee L; Ratcliffe, Jennifer M; Kraft, Andrew D; Schünemann, Holger J; Schwingl, Pamela; Walker, Teneille D; Thayer, Kristina A; Lunn, Ruth M

2016-01-01

Environmental health hazard assessments are routinely relied upon for public health decision-making. The evidence base used in these assessments is typically developed from a collection of diverse sources of information of varying quality. It is critical that literature-based evaluations consider the credibility of individual studies used to reach conclusions through consistent, transparent and accepted methods. Systematic review procedures address study credibility by assessing internal validity or "risk of bias" - the assessment of whether the design and conduct of a study compromised the credibility of the link between exposure/intervention and outcome. This paper describes the commonalities and differences in risk-of-bias methods developed or used by five groups that conduct or provide methodological input for performing environmental health hazard assessments: the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) Working Group, the Navigation Guide, the National Toxicology Program's (NTP) Office of Health Assessment and Translation (OHAT) and Office of the Report on Carcinogens (ORoC), and the Integrated Risk Information System of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA-IRIS). Each of these groups have been developing and applying rigorous assessment methods for integrating across a heterogeneous collection of human and animal studies to inform conclusions on potential environmental health hazards. There is substantial consistency across the groups in the consideration of risk-of-bias issues or "domains" for assessing observational human studies. There is a similar overlap in terms of domains addressed for animal studies; however, the groups differ in the relative emphasis placed on different aspects of risk of bias. Future directions for the continued harmonization and improvement of these methods are also discussed. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Risk assessment [Chapter 9

Treesearch

Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

2014-01-01

What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

Development and application of a geospatial wildfire exposure and risk calculation tool

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; Jessica R. Haas; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day; Joe H. Scott; Paul Langowski; Elise Bowne; David E. Calkin

2015-01-01

Applying wildfire risk assessment models can inform investments in loss mitigation and landscape restoration, and can be used to monitor spatiotemporal trends in risk. Assessing wildfire risk entails the integration of fire modeling outputs, maps of highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs), characterization of fire effects, and articulation of relative importance...

An Approach for Integrating Toxicogenomic Data in Risk Assessment: The Dibutyl Phthalate Case Study

EPA Science Inventory

An approach for evaluating and integrating genomic data in chemical risk assessment was developed based on the lessons learned from performing a case study for the chemical dibutyl phthalate. A case study prototype approach was first developed in accordance with EPA guidance and ...

DEVELOPING MECHANISTIC DATA FOR INCORPORATION INTO CANCER AND GENETIC RISK ASSESSMENTS: OLD PROBLEMS AND NEW APPROACHES

EPA Science Inventory

26th Lauriston S. Taylor Lecture
DEVELOPING MECHANISTIC DATA FOR INCORPORATION INTO CANCER AND
GENETIC RISK ASSESSMENTS: OLD PROBLEMS AND NEW APPROACHES
R. Julian Preston, Environmental Carcinogenesis Division, U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, NHEERL, Research Tr...

Engine non-containment: UK risk assessment methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wallin, J. C.

1977-01-01

More realistic guideline data must be developed for use in aircraft design in order to comply with recent changes in British civil airworthiness requirements. Unrealistically pessimistic results were obtained when the methodology developed during the Concorde SST certification program was extended to assess catastrophic risks resulting from uncontained engine rotors.

Integrating human behaviour dynamics into flood disaster risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Botzen, W. J.; Clarke, K. C.; Cutter, S. L.; Hall, J. W.; Merz, B.; Michel-Kerjan, E.; Mysiak, J.; Surminski, S.; Kunreuther, H.

2018-03-01

The behaviour of individuals, businesses, and government entities before, during, and immediately after a disaster can dramatically affect the impact and recovery time. However, existing risk-assessment methods rarely include this critical factor. In this Perspective, we show why this is a concern, and demonstrate that although initial efforts have inevitably represented human behaviour in limited terms, innovations in flood-risk assessment that integrate societal behaviour and behavioural adaptation dynamics into such quantifications may lead to more accurate characterization of risks and improved assessment of the effectiveness of risk-management strategies and investments. Such multidisciplinary approaches can inform flood-risk management policy development.

Back-end Science Model Integration for Ecological Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) relies on a number of ecological risk assessment models that have been developed over 30-plus years of regulating pesticide exposure and risks under Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) and the Endangered Spe...

Back-end Science Model Integration for Ecological Risk Assessment.

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) relies on a number of ecological risk assessment models that have been developed over 30-plus years of regulating pesticide exposure and risks under Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) and the Endangered Spe...

An integrated approach to evaluating alternative risk prediction strategies: a case study comparing alternative approaches for preventing invasive fungal disease.

PubMed

Sadique, Z; Grieve, R; Harrison, D A; Jit, M; Allen, E; Rowan, K M

2013-12-01

This article proposes an integrated approach to the development, validation, and evaluation of new risk prediction models illustrated with the Fungal Infection Risk Evaluation study, which developed risk models to identify non-neutropenic, critically ill adult patients at high risk of invasive fungal disease (IFD). Our decision-analytical model compared alternative strategies for preventing IFD at up to three clinical decision time points (critical care admission, after 24 hours, and end of day 3), followed with antifungal prophylaxis for those judged "high" risk versus "no formal risk assessment." We developed prognostic models to predict the risk of IFD before critical care unit discharge, with data from 35,455 admissions to 70 UK adult, critical care units, and validated the models externally. The decision model was populated with positive predictive values and negative predictive values from the best-fitting risk models. We projected lifetime cost-effectiveness and expected value of partial perfect information for groups of parameters. The risk prediction models performed well in internal and external validation. Risk assessment and prophylaxis at the end of day 3 was the most cost-effective strategy at the 2% and 1% risk threshold. Risk assessment at each time point was the most cost-effective strategy at a 0.5% risk threshold. Expected values of partial perfect information were high for positive predictive values or negative predictive values (£11 million-£13 million) and quality-adjusted life-years (£11 million). It is cost-effective to formally assess the risk of IFD for non-neutropenic, critically ill adult patients. This integrated approach to developing and evaluating risk models is useful for informing clinical practice and future research investment. © 2013 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) Published by International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) All rights reserved.

The Application of Integrated Knowledge-based Systems for the Biomedical Risk Assessment Intelligent Network (BRAIN)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Loftin, Karin C.; Ly, Bebe; Webster, Laurie; Verlander, James; Taylor, Gerald R.; Riley, Gary; Culbert, Chris; Holden, Tina; Rudisill, Marianne

1993-01-01

One of NASA's goals for long duration space flight is to maintain acceptable levels of crew health, safety, and performance. One way of meeting this goal is through the Biomedical Risk Assessment Intelligent Network (BRAIN), an integrated network of both human and computer elements. The BRAIN will function as an advisor to flight surgeons by assessing the risk of in-flight biomedical problems and recommending appropriate countermeasures. This paper describes the joint effort among various NASA elements to develop BRAIN and an Infectious Disease Risk Assessment (IDRA) prototype. The implementation of this effort addresses the technological aspects of the following: (1) knowledge acquisition; (2) integration of IDRA components; (3) use of expert systems to automate the biomedical prediction process; (4) development of a user-friendly interface; and (5) integration of the IDRA prototype and Exercise Countermeasures Intelligent System (ExerCISys). Because the C Language, CLIPS (the C Language Integrated Production System), and the X-Window System were portable and easily integrated, they were chosen as the tools for the initial IDRA prototype. The feasibility was tested by developing an IDRA prototype that predicts the individual risk of influenza. The application of knowledge-based systems to risk assessment is of great market value to the medical technology industry.

Ethics and transparent risk communication start with proper risk assessment methodologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oboni, Franco; Oboni, Cesar

2014-05-01

We will use throught this paper a "dialogue" between two professionals. One is aware of the misleading character of many risk assessments and wants to foster better approaches. A discomforting set of statements sets the background of the "story": public reactions to risk assessments are generally negative, the developer find it difficult to understand the reasons for general public negative reactions, many projects get often rejected without valid reasons by the public, anywhere in the world. Common practice approaches in Risk Assessment are discussed from the angle of public rejection, taking into account various studies that explicitly expose common practices limitations and voids. The hiatus between rational and well-balanced risk assessments and common practices is explored. Finally solutions to overcome the limitations of common practices and deliver to the public more realistic risk assessment on which to build a widespread consensus are reviewed. The paper conclusions relate to the need of: properly communicating risk throughout the life of a project, from cradle to grave, avoiding conflict of interest, having estimates that are understandable to foster good understanding of what a risk assessment can bring to better Human existence, in an ethical and fair way. The paper delivers a list of possible remedies and shows that "Common Practices" do not equate to "Best Practices": common practices are not to be proposed/used any longer if we want to avoid public distrust and misrepresentations. Many of the "modern" issues ranging from public distrust to insurance denial could be relieved or mitigated ahead of time if misrepresentation was kept at bay using five simple rules. Common practice Risk Assessments, especially those developed under conflict of interest situations, generally misrepresent risks and fail to give the "big picture", hence do not help taking valid decision and are prone to generating/fostering public distrust.

Improving risk assessment of violence among military Veterans: An evidence-based approach for clinical decision-making

PubMed Central

Elbogen, Eric B.; Fuller, Sara; Johnson, Sally C.; Brooks, Stephanie; Kinneer, Patricia; Calhoun, Patrick; Beckham, Jean C.

2010-01-01

Despite increased media attention on violent acts against others committed by military Veterans, few models have been developed to systematically guide violence risk assessment among Veterans. Ideally, a model would identify which Veterans are most at risk for violence and increased attention could then be turned to determining what could be done to prevent violent behavior. This article suggests how empirical approaches to risk assessment used successfully in civilian populations can be applied to Veterans. A review was conducted of the scientific literature on Veteran populations regarding factors related to interpersonal violence generally and to domestic violence specifically. A list was then generated of empirically-supported risk factors for clinicians to consider in practice. To conceptualize how these known risk factors relate to a Veteran’s violence potential, risk assessment scholarship was utilized to develop an evidence-based method to guide mental health professionals. The goals of this approach are to integrate science into practice, overcome logistical barriers, and permit more effective assessment, monitoring, and management of violence risk for clinicians working with Veterans, both in Veteran Administration settings and in the broader community. It is likely that the use of a systematic, empirical framework could lead to improved clinical decision-making in the area of risk assessment, and help reduce violence among Veterans. PMID:20627387

Thyroid Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

Cancer.gov

The R package thyroid implements a risk prediction model developed by NCI researchers to calculate the absolute risk of developing a second primary thyroid cancer (SPTC) in individuals who were diagnosed with a cancer during their childhood.

Family history assessment for colorectal cancer (CRC) risk analysis - comparison of diagram- and questionnaire-based web interfaces.

PubMed

Schultz, Michael; Seo, Steven Bohwan; Holt, Alec; Regenbrecht, Holger

2015-11-18

Colorectal cancer (CRC) has a high incidence, especially in New Zealand. The reasons for this are unknown. While most cancers develop sporadically, a positive family history, determined by the number and age at diagnosis of affected first and second degree relatives with CRC is one of the major factors, which may increase an individual's lifetime risk. Before a patient can be enrolled in a surveillance program a detailed assessment and documentation of the family history is important but time consuming and often inaccurate. The documentation is usually paper-based. Our aim was therefore to develop and validate the usability and efficacy of a web-based family history assessment tool for CRC suitable for the general population. The tool was also to calculate the risk and make a recommendation for surveillance. Two versions of an electronic assessment tool, diagram-based and questionnaire-based, were developed with the risk analysis and recommendations for surveillance based on the New Zealand Guidelines Group recommendations. Accuracy of our tool was tested prior to the study by comparing risk calculations based on family history by experienced gastroenterologists with the electronic assessment. The general public, visiting a local science fair were asked to use and comment on the usability of the two interfaces. Ninety people assessed and commented on the two interfaces. Both interfaces were effective in assessing the risk to develop CRC through their familial history for CRC. However, the questionnaire-based interface performed with significantly better satisfaction (p = 0.001) than the diagram-based interface. There was no difference in efficacy though. We conclude that a web-based questionnaire tool can assist in the accurate documentation and analysis of the family history relevant to determine the individual risk of CRC based on local guidelines. The calculator is now implemented and assessable through the web-page of a local charity for colorectal cancer awareness and integral part of the local general practitioners' e-referral system for colonic imaging.

Nanotoxicology and nanomedicine: making development decisions in an evolving governance environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rycroft, Taylor; Trump, Benjamin; Poinsatte-Jones, Kelsey; Linkov, Igor

2018-02-01

The fields of nanomedicine, risk analysis, and decision science have evolved considerably in the past decade, providing developers of nano-enabled therapies and diagnostic tools with more complete information than ever before and shifting a fundamental requisite of the nanomedical community from the need for more information about nanomaterials to the need for a streamlined method of integrating the abundance of nano-specific information into higher-certainty product design decisions. The crucial question facing nanomedicine developers that must select the optimal nanotechnology in a given situation has shifted from "how do we estimate nanomaterial risk in the absence of good risk data?" to "how can we derive a holistic characterization of the risks and benefits that a given nanomaterial may pose within a specific nanomedical application?" Many decision support frameworks have been proposed to assist with this inquiry; however, those based in multicriteria decision analysis have proven to be most adaptive in the rapidly evolving field of nanomedicine—from the early stages of the field when conditions of significant uncertainty and incomplete information dominated, to today when nanotoxicology and nano-environmental health and safety information is abundant but foundational paradigms such as chemical risk assessment, risk governance, life cycle assessment, safety-by-design, and stakeholder engagement are undergoing substantial reformation in an effort to address the needs of emerging technologies. In this paper, we reflect upon 10 years of developments in nanomedical engineering and demonstrate how the rich knowledgebase of nano-focused toxicological and risk assessment information developed over the last decade enhances the capability of multicriteria decision analysis approaches and underscores the need to continue the transition from traditional risk assessment towards risk-based decision-making and alternatives-based governance for emerging technologies.

III: Use of biomarkers as Risk Indicators in Environmental Risk Assessment of oil based discharges offshore.

PubMed

Sanni, Steinar; Lyng, Emily; Pampanin, Daniela M

2017-06-01

Offshore oil and gas activities are required not to cause adverse environmental effects, and risk based management has been established to meet environmental standards. In some risk assessment schemes, Risk Indicators (RIs) are parameters to monitor the development of risk affecting factors. RIs have not yet been established in the Environmental Risk Assessment procedures for management of oil based discharges offshore. This paper evaluates the usefulness of biomarkers as RIs, based on their properties, existing laboratory biomarker data and assessment methods. Data shows several correlations between oil concentrations and biomarker responses, and assessment principles exist that qualify biomarkers for integration into risk procedures. Different ways that these existing biomarkers and methods can be applied as RIs in a probabilistic risk assessment system when linked with whole organism responses are discussed. This can be a useful approach to integrate biomarkers into probabilistic risk assessment related to oil based discharges, representing a potential supplement to information that biomarkers already provide about environmental impact and risk related to these kind of discharges. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Community, State, and Federal Approaches to Cumulative Risk Assessment: Challenges and Opportunities for Integration

PubMed Central

Barzyk, Timothy M.; Wilson, Sacoby; Wilson, Anthony

2015-01-01

Community, state, and federal approaches to conventional and cumulative risk assessment (CRA) were described and compared to assess similarities and differences, and develop recommendations for a consistent CRA approach, acceptable across each level as a rigorous scientific methodology, including partnership formation and solution development as necessary practices. Community, state, and federal examples were described and then summarized based on their adherence to CRA principles of: (1) planning, scoping, and problem formulation; (2) risk analysis and ranking, and (3) risk characterization, interpretation, and management. While each application shared the common goal of protecting human health and the environment, they adopted different approaches to achieve this. For a specific project-level analysis of a particular place or instance, this may be acceptable, but to ensure long-term applicability and transferability to other projects, recommendations for developing a consistent approach to CRA are provided. This approach would draw from best practices, risk assessment and decision analysis sciences, and historical lessons learned to provide results in an understandable and accepted manner by all entities. This approach is intended to provide a common ground around which to develop CRA methods and approaches that can be followed at all levels. PMID:25918910

Different type 2 diabetes risk assessments predict dissimilar numbers at 'high risk': a retrospective analysis of diabetes risk-assessment tools.

PubMed

Gray, Benjamin J; Bracken, Richard M; Turner, Daniel; Morgan, Kerry; Thomas, Michael; Williams, Sally P; Williams, Meurig; Rice, Sam; Stephens, Jeffrey W

2015-12-01

Use of a validated risk-assessment tool to identify individuals at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes is currently recommended. It is under-reported, however, whether a different risk tool alters the predicted risk of an individual. This study explored any differences between commonly used validated risk-assessment tools for type 2 diabetes. Cross-sectional analysis of individuals who participated in a workplace-based risk assessment in Carmarthenshire, South Wales. Retrospective analysis of 676 individuals (389 females and 287 males) who participated in a workplace-based diabetes risk-assessment initiative. Ten-year risk of type 2 diabetes was predicted using the validated QDiabetes(®), Leicester Risk Assessment (LRA), FINDRISC, and Cambridge Risk Score (CRS) algorithms. Differences between the risk-assessment tools were apparent following retrospective analysis of individuals. CRS categorised the highest proportion (13.6%) of individuals at 'high risk' followed by FINDRISC (6.6%), QDiabetes (6.1%), and, finally, the LRA was the most conservative risk tool (3.1%). Following further analysis by sex, over one-quarter of males were categorised at high risk using CRS (25.4%), whereas a greater percentage of females were categorised as high risk using FINDRISC (7.8%). The adoption of a different valid risk-assessment tool can alter the predicted risk of an individual and caution should be used to identify those individuals who really are at high risk of type 2 diabetes. © British Journal of General Practice 2015.

Indicators for Environment Health Risk Assessment in the Jiangsu Province of China

PubMed Central

Zhang, Shujie; Wei, Zhengzheng; Liu, Wenliang; Yao, Ling; Suo, Wenyu; Xing, Jingjing; Huang, Bingzhao; Jin, Di; Wang, Jiansheng

2015-01-01

According to the framework of “Pressure-State-Response”, this study established an indicator system which can reflect comprehensive risk of environment and health for an area at large scale. This indicator system includes 17 specific indicators covering social and economic development, pollution emission intensity, air pollution exposure, population vulnerability, living standards, medical and public health, culture and education. A corresponding weight was given to each indicator through Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. Comprehensive risk assessment of the environment and health of 58 counties was conducted in the Jiangsu province, China, and the assessment result was divided into four types according to risk level. Higher-risk counties are all located in the economically developed southern region of Jiangsu province and relatively high-risk counties are located along the Yangtze River and Xuzhou County and its surrounding areas. The spatial distribution of relatively low-risk counties is dispersive, and lower-risk counties mainly located in the middle region where the economy is somewhat weaker in the province. The assessment results provide reasonable and scientific basis for Jiangsu province Government in formulating environment and health policy. Moreover, it also provides a method reference for the comprehensive risk assessment of environment and health within a large area (provinces, regions and countries). PMID:26371016

Indicators for Environment Health Risk Assessment in the Jiangsu Province of China.

PubMed

Zhang, Shujie; Wei, Zhengzheng; Liu, Wenliang; Yao, Ling; Suo, Wenyu; Xing, Jingjing; Huang, Bingzhao; Jin, Di; Wang, Jiansheng

2015-09-07

According to the framework of "Pressure-State-Response", this study established an indicator system which can reflect comprehensive risk of environment and health for an area at large scale. This indicator system includes 17 specific indicators covering social and economic development, pollution emission intensity, air pollution exposure, population vulnerability, living standards, medical and public health, culture and education. A corresponding weight was given to each indicator through Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. Comprehensive risk assessment of the environment and health of 58 counties was conducted in the Jiangsu province, China, and the assessment result was divided into four types according to risk level. Higher-risk counties are all located in the economically developed southern region of Jiangsu province and relatively high-risk counties are located along the Yangtze River and Xuzhou County and its surrounding areas. The spatial distribution of relatively low-risk counties is dispersive, and lower-risk counties mainly located in the middle region where the economy is somewhat weaker in the province. The assessment results provide reasonable and scientific basis for Jiangsu province Government in formulating environment and health policy. Moreover, it also provides a method reference for the comprehensive risk assessment of environment and health within a large area (provinces, regions and countries).

SCAP: a new methodology for safety management based on feedback from credible accident-probabilistic fault tree analysis system.

PubMed

Khan, F I; Iqbal, A; Ramesh, N; Abbasi, S A

2001-10-12

As it is conventionally done, strategies for incorporating accident--prevention measures in any hazardous chemical process industry are developed on the basis of input from risk assessment. However, the two steps-- risk assessment and hazard reduction (or safety) measures--are not linked interactively in the existing methodologies. This prevents a quantitative assessment of the impacts of safety measures on risk control. We have made an attempt to develop a methodology in which risk assessment steps are interactively linked with implementation of safety measures. The resultant system tells us the extent of reduction of risk by each successive safety measure. It also tells based on sophisticated maximum credible accident analysis (MCAA) and probabilistic fault tree analysis (PFTA) whether a given unit can ever be made 'safe'. The application of the methodology has been illustrated with a case study.

Development of a risk assessment tool for volcanic urban environments: RiskScape and the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deligne, N. I.; Leonard, G.; King, A.; Wilson, G.; Wilson, T.; Lindsay, J. M.

2013-12-01

Auckland city, home to a third of New Zealand's population, is situated on top of the Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF), which last erupted roughly 500 years ago. Since 2008, the Determining Volcanic Risk in Auckland (DEVORA) program has investigated the geologic context of the AVF, improved timing constraints of past eruptions, explored possible tempo-spatial-volume eruption trends, and identified likely styles and hazards of future eruptions. DEVORA is now moving into development of risk and societal models for Auckland. The volcanic module of RiskScape, a multi-hazard risk assessment tool developed by Crown Research Institutes GNS Science and NIWA, will be expanded and used to model risk and impact to the built environment and population caused by a future AVF eruption. RiskScape models casualties, damage and disruption caused by various hazards, the resulting reduced functionality of assets, and associated clean up costs. A strength of RiskScape is that the effect of various mitigation strategies can be explored by strengthening asset attributes and examining resulting changes in the output risk evaluation. We present our framework for building a volcano hazard exposure module for RiskScape along with our approach for assessing asset vulnerability through the development of fragility functions. We also present the framework for engagement with regional Auckland stakeholders, including representatives of local and regional governments and utility companies, to identify complementary needs to ensure that final risk products are relevant and useable by end users.

Towards a better reliability of risk assessment: development of a qualitative & quantitative risk evaluation model (Q2REM) for different trades of construction works in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Fung, Ivan W H; Lo, Tommy Y; Tung, Karen C F

2012-09-01

Since the safety professionals are the key decision makers dealing with project safety and risk assessment in the construction industry, their perceptions of safety risk would directly affect the reliability of risk assessment. The safety professionals generally tend to heavily rely on their own past experiences to make subjective decisions on risk assessment without systematic decision making. Indeed, understanding of the underlying principles of risk assessment is significant. In this study, the qualitative analysis on the safety professionals' beliefs of risk assessment and their perceptions towards risk assessment, including their recognitions of possible accident causes, the degree of differentiations on their perceptions of risk levels of different trades of works, recognitions of the occurrence of different types of accidents, and their inter-relationships with safety performance in terms of accident rates will be explored in the Stage 1. At the second stage, the deficiencies of the current general practice for risk assessment can be sorted out firstly. Based on the findings from Stage 1 and the historical accident data from 15 large-scaled construction projects in 3-year average, a risk evaluation model prioritizing the risk levels of different trades of works and which cause different types of site accident due to various accident causes will be developed quantitatively. With the suggested systematic accident recording techniques, this model can be implemented in the construction industry at both project level and organizational level. The model (Q(2)REM) not only act as a useful supplementary guideline of risk assessment for the construction safety professionals, but also assists them to pinpoint the potential risks on site for the construction workers under respective trades of works through safety trainings and education. It, in turn, arouses their awareness on safety risk. As the Q(2)REM can clearly show the potential accident causes leading to different types of accident by trade of works, it helps the concerned safety professionals and parties to plan effective accident prevention measures with reference to the priority of the risk levels. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

mHealth and Mobile Medical Apps: A Framework to Assess Risk and Promote Safer Use

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

The use of mobile medical apps by clinicians and others has grown considerably since the introduction of mobile phones. Medical apps offer clinicians the ability to access medical knowledge and patient data at the point of care, but several studies have highlighted apps that could compromise patient safety and are potentially dangerous. This article identifies a range of different kinds of risks that medical apps can contribute to and important contextual variables that can modify these risks. We have also developed a simple generic risk framework that app users, developers, and other stakeholders can use to assess the likely risks posed by a specific app in a specific context. This should help app commissioners, developers, and users to manage risks and improve patient safety. PMID:25223398

mHealth and mobile medical Apps: a framework to assess risk and promote safer use.

PubMed

Lewis, Thomas Lorchan; Wyatt, Jeremy C

2014-09-15

The use of mobile medical apps by clinicians and others has grown considerably since the introduction of mobile phones. Medical apps offer clinicians the ability to access medical knowledge and patient data at the point of care, but several studies have highlighted apps that could compromise patient safety and are potentially dangerous. This article identifies a range of different kinds of risks that medical apps can contribute to and important contextual variables that can modify these risks. We have also developed a simple generic risk framework that app users, developers, and other stakeholders can use to assess the likely risks posed by a specific app in a specific context. This should help app commissioners, developers, and users to manage risks and improve patient safety.

Managing Risk for Cassini During Mission Operations and Data Analysis (MOandDA)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Witkowski, Mona M.

2002-01-01

A Risk Management Process has been tailored for Cassini that not only satisfies the requirements of NASA and JPL, but also allows the Program to proactively identify and assess risks that threaten mission objectives. Cassini Risk Management is a team effort that involves both management and engineering staff. The process is managed and facilitated by the Mission Assurance Manager (MAM), but requires regular interactions with Program Staff and team members to instill the risk management philosophy into the day to day mission operations. While Risk Management is well defined for projects in the development phase, it is a relatively new concept for Mission Operations. The Cassini team has embraced this process and has begun using it in an effective, proactive manner, to ensure mission success. It is hoped that the Cassini Risk Management Process will form the basis by which risk management is conducted during MO&DA on future projects. proactive in identifying, assessing and mitigating risks before they become problems. Cost ehtiveness is achieved by: Comprehensively identifying risks Rapidly assessing which risks require the expenditure of pruject cewums Taking early actions to mitigate these risks Iterating the process frequently, to be responsive to the dynamic internal and external environments The Cassini Program has successfully implemented a Risk Management Process for mission operations, The initial SRL has been developed and input into he online tool. The Risk Management webbased system has been rolled out for use by the flight team and risk owners we working proactive in identifying, assessing and mitigating risks before they become problems. Cost ehtiveness is achieved by: Comprehensively identifying risks Rapidly assessing which risks require the expenditure of pruject cewums Taking early actions to mitigate these risks Iterating the process frequently, to be responsive to the dynamic internal and external environments The Cassini Program has successfully implemented a Risk Management Process for mission operations, The initial SRL has been developed and input into he online tool. The Risk Management webbased system has been rolled out for use by the flight team and risk owners we working put into place will become visible and will be illusmted in future papers.

A Topical Overview of Cumulative Risk Assessment Concepts, Methods, and Applications (2007–2016)

EPA Science Inventory

Cumulative risk assessments (CRAs) address combined risks from exposures to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors and may focus on vulnerable communities or populations. Significant contributions have been made to the development of concepts, methods, and applications for C...

DOE-NE Proliferation and Terrorism Risk Assessment: FY12 Plans Update

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sadasivan, Pratap

2012-06-21

This presentation provides background information on FY12 plans for the DOE Office of Nuclear Energy Proliferation and Terrorism Risk Assessment program. Program plans, organization, and individual project elements are described. Research objectives are: (1) Develop technologies and other solutions that can improve the reliability, sustain the safety, and extend the life of current reactors; (2) Develop improvements in the affordability of new reactors to enable nuclear energy; (3) Develop Sustainable Nuclear Fuel Cycles; and (4) Understand and minimize the risks of nuclear proliferation and terrorism - Goal is to enable the use of risk information to inform NE R&D programmore » planning.« less

Match of psychosocial risk and psychosocial care in families of a child with cancer.

PubMed

Sint Nicolaas, S M; Schepers, S A; van den Bergh, E M M; de Boer, Y; Streng, I; van Dijk-Lokkart, E M; Grootenhuis, M A; Verhaak, C M

2017-12-01

The Psychosocial Assessment Tool (PAT) was developed to screen for psychosocial risk, aimed to be supportive in directing psychosocial care to families of a child with cancer. This study aimed to determine (i) the match between PAT risk score and provided psychosocial care with healthcare professionals blind to outcome of PAT assessment, and (ii) the match between PAT risk score and team risk estimation. Eighty-three families of children with cancer from four pediatric oncology centers in the Netherlands participated (59% response rate). The PAT and team risk estimation was assessed at diagnosis (M = 40.2 days, SD = 14.1 days), and the content of provided psychosocial care in the 5-month period thereafter resulting in basic or specialized care. According to the PAT, 65% of families were defined as having low (universal), 30% medium (targeted), and 5% high (clinical) risk for developing psychosocial problems. Thirty percent of patients from universal group got basic psychosocial care, 63% got specialized care, and 7% did not get any care. Fourteen percent of the families at risk got basic care, 86% got specialized care. Team risk estimations and PAT risk scores matched with 58% of the families. This study showed that families at risk, based on standardized risk assessment with the PAT, received more specialized care than families without risk. However, still 14% of the families with high risks only received basic care, and 63% of the families with standard risk got specialized care. Standardized risk assessment can be used as part of comprehensive care delivery, complementing the team. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Methods to assess landscape-scale risk of bark beetle infestation to support forest management decisions

Treesearch

T. L. Shore; A. Fall; W. G. Riel; J. Hughes; M. Eng

2010-01-01

The objective of our paper is to provide practitioners with suggestions on how to select appropriate methods for risk assessment of bark beetle infestations at the landscape scale in order to support their particular management decisions and to motivate researchers to refine novel risk assessment methods. Methods developed to assist and inform management decisions for...

Sulfur Oxides Risk and Exposure Assessment Planning ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

In conducting risk/exposure assessments for the Sulfur Oxides NAAQS review, EPA will first develop a draft Scope and Methods Plan which will describe the proposed scope of the quantitative and qualitative analyses to be performed and the tools/methods that may be employed Provide opportunity for CASAC feedback on EPA's plans for the risk and exposure assessment for the Sulfur Oxides NAAQS review

Risk assessment for construction projects of transport infrastructure objects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Titarenko, Boris

2017-10-01

The paper analyzes and compares different methods of risk assessment for construction projects of transport objects. The management of such type of projects demands application of special probabilistic methods due to large level of uncertainty of their implementation. Risk management in the projects requires the use of probabilistic and statistical methods. The aim of the work is to develop a methodology for using traditional methods in combination with robust methods that allow obtaining reliable risk assessments in projects. The robust approach is based on the principle of maximum likelihood and in assessing the risk allows the researcher to obtain reliable results in situations of great uncertainty. The application of robust procedures allows to carry out a quantitative assessment of the main risk indicators of projects when solving the tasks of managing innovation-investment projects. Calculation of damage from the onset of a risky event is possible by any competent specialist. And an assessment of the probability of occurrence of a risky event requires the involvement of special probabilistic methods based on the proposed robust approaches. Practice shows the effectiveness and reliability of results. The methodology developed in the article can be used to create information technologies and their application in automated control systems for complex projects.

Development of standardized inspections in restaurants using visual assessments and microbiological sampling to quantify the risks.

PubMed Central

Tebbutt, G. M.

1991-01-01

The relationship between visual inspections carried out by environmental health officers and microbiological examination was studied in 89 restaurants. Using 30 variables a standardized inspection procedure was developed and each of the premises was assessed in six main areas-structure and design, cleaning and cleanliness, personal hygiene, risk of contamination, temperature control, and training and knowledge about food hygiene. Selected foods and specimens from hands, surfaces, and wiping cloths were examined. There were significant associations between all six areas of the inspections. The structure and design were significantly related to the combined score from all the other areas (P less than 0.001). There were no highly significant associations between microbiological examination and visual assessments. The microbial contamination of wiping cloths, however, was related to the cleaning and cleanliness (P = 0.005). Microbial sampling provided additional information to inspections and was a valuable aid. Further development of this risk-assessment approach could provide an effective system for monitoring potential health risks in high-risk food premises. PMID:1936161

Assessing ergonomic risks of software: Development of the SEAT.

PubMed

Peres, S Camille; Mehta, Ranjana K; Ritchey, Paul

2017-03-01

Software utilizing interaction designs that require extensive dragging or clicking of icons may increase users' risks for upper extremity cumulative trauma disorders. The purpose of this research is to develop a Self-report Ergonomic Assessment Tool (SEAT) for assessing the risks of software interaction designs and facilitate mitigation of those risks. A 28-item self-report measure was developed by combining and modifying items from existing industrial ergonomic tools. Data were collected from 166 participants after they completed four different tasks that varied by method of input (touch or keyboard and mouse) and type of task (selecting or typing). Principal component analysis found distinct factors associated with stress (i.e., demands) and strain (i.e., response). Repeated measures analyses of variance showed that participants could discriminate the different strain induced by the input methods and tasks. However, participants' ability to discriminate between the stressors associated with that strain was mixed. Further validation of the SEAT is necessary but these results indicate that the SEAT may be a viable method of assessing ergonomics risks presented by software design. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Different type 2 diabetes risk assessments predict dissimilar numbers at ‘high risk’: a retrospective analysis of diabetes risk-assessment tools

PubMed Central

Gray, Benjamin J; Bracken, Richard M; Turner, Daniel; Morgan, Kerry; Thomas, Michael; Williams, Sally P; Williams, Meurig; Rice, Sam; Stephens, Jeffrey W

2015-01-01

Background Use of a validated risk-assessment tool to identify individuals at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes is currently recommended. It is under-reported, however, whether a different risk tool alters the predicted risk of an individual. Aim This study explored any differences between commonly used validated risk-assessment tools for type 2 diabetes. Design and setting Cross-sectional analysis of individuals who participated in a workplace-based risk assessment in Carmarthenshire, South Wales. Method Retrospective analysis of 676 individuals (389 females and 287 males) who participated in a workplace-based diabetes risk-assessment initiative. Ten-year risk of type 2 diabetes was predicted using the validated QDiabetes®, Leicester Risk Assessment (LRA), FINDRISC, and Cambridge Risk Score (CRS) algorithms. Results Differences between the risk-assessment tools were apparent following retrospective analysis of individuals. CRS categorised the highest proportion (13.6%) of individuals at ‘high risk’ followed by FINDRISC (6.6%), QDiabetes (6.1%), and, finally, the LRA was the most conservative risk tool (3.1%). Following further analysis by sex, over one-quarter of males were categorised at high risk using CRS (25.4%), whereas a greater percentage of females were categorised as high risk using FINDRISC (7.8%). Conclusion The adoption of a different valid risk-assessment tool can alter the predicted risk of an individual and caution should be used to identify those individuals who really are at high risk of type 2 diabetes. PMID:26541180

Towards the assessment and management of contaminated dredged materials.

PubMed

Agius, Suzanne J; Porebski, Linda

2008-04-01

Environment Canada's Disposal at Sea Programme hosted the Contaminated Dredged Material Management Decisions Workshop in Montreal, Quebec, Canada, on 28-30 November 2006. The workshop brought together over 50 sediment assessment and management experts from academic, industrial, and regulatory backgrounds and charged them with drafting a potential framework to assess contaminated dredged materials and compare the risks of various disposal alternatives. This article summarizes the recommendations made during the workshop concerning the development of sediment assessment tools, the interpretation of these tools, and the essential attributes of a comparative risk assessment process. The major outcomes of the workshop include a strong recommendation to develop a national dredging or sediment management strategy, a potential decision-making framework for the assessment of dredged materials and comparative risk assessment of disposal options, and the expansion of minimum sediment characterization requirements for nonroutine disposal permit applications.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stayner, L.T.; Meinhardt, T.; Hardin, B.

Under the Occupational Safety and Health, and Mine Safety and Health Acts, the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) is charged with development of recommended occupational safety and health standards, and with conducting research to support the development of these standards. Thus, NIOSH has been actively involved in the analysis of risk associated with occupational exposures, and in the development of research information that is critical for the risk assessment process. NIOSH research programs and other information resources relevant to the risk assessment process are described in this paper. Future needs for information resources are also discussed.

Risk assessment of bronchial asthma development in children with atopic dermatitis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vуsotska, Olena V.; Klymenko, Viktoriia A.; Trubitcin, Alexei A.; Pecherska, Anna I.; Savchuk, Tamara O.; Kolimoldayev, Maksat; Wójcik, Waldemar; Szatkowska, Małgorzata; Burlibay, Aron

2017-08-01

This article offers a risk assessment of bronchial asthma development in children with atopic dermatitis by applying fuzzy-set theory to accumulated statistical data. It is shown that with a view to executing the said task one should exercise a complex approach involving factors such as "IgE level", "existence of obstructions" and "burdened bronchial asthma heredity of immediate relatives". The obtained results will assist in making adequate and well-informed medical decisions as well as facilitate the decrease of the risk of developing bronchial asthma in children with atopic dermatitis.

Integrated national-scale assessment of wildfire risk to human and ecological values

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; David E. Calkin; Mark A. Finney; Alan A. Ager; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day

2011-01-01

The spatial, temporal, and social dimensions of wildfire risk are challenging U.S. federal land management agencies to meet societal needs while maintaining the health of the lands they manage. In this paper we present a quantitative, geospatial wildfire risk assessment tool, developed in response to demands for improved risk-based decision frameworks. The methodology...

Scientific Opinion on Risk Assessment of Synthetic Biology.

PubMed

Epstein, Michelle M; Vermeire, Theo

2016-08-01

In 2013, three Scientific Committees of the European Commission (EC) drafted Scientific Opinions on synthetic biology that provide an operational definition and address risk assessment methodology, safety aspects, environmental risks, knowledge gaps, and research priorities. These Opinions contribute to the international discussions on the risk governance for synthetic biology developments. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How Engineers Really Think About Risk: A Study of JPL Engineers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hihn, Jairus; Chattopadhyay, Deb; Valerdi, Ricardo

2011-01-01

The objectives of this work are: To improve risk assessment practices as used during the mission design process by JPL's concurrent engineering teams. (1) Developing effective ways to identify and assess mission risks (2) Providing a process for more effective dialog between stakeholders about the existence and severity of mission risks (3) Enabling the analysis of interactions of risks across concurrent engineering roles.

A framework for weight of evidence in ecological assessment

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Risk Assessment Forum has developed a framework and guidelines for inference by weight of evidence. Like the Agency’s Guidelines for Ecological Risk Assessment, these guidelines are sufficiently general to be adapted to a wi...

Tools Available to Communities for Conducting Cumulative Exposure and Risk Assessments

EPA Science Inventory

This paper summarizes and assesses over 70 tools that could aid with gathering information and taking action on environmental issues related to community-based cumulative risk assessments (CBCRA). Information on tool use, development and research needs, was gathered from websites...

A 21st Century Roadmap for Human Health Risk Assessment ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

For decades human health risk assessment has depended primarily on animal testing to predict adverse effects in humans, but that paradigm has come under question because of calls for more accurate information, less use of animals, and more efficient use of resources. Moreover, the disproportionate use of hazard information has overshadowed the important role of exposure science in determinations of human safety. In addition, major risk assessments lack the clarity and transparency that hinder an understanding of the analysis and communication of key safety messages. To help answer these challenges, the HESI-managed RISK21 project was initiated to develop a scientific, transparent, and efficient approach to the evolving world of human health risk assessment. RISK21 involved over 120 participants from 12 countries, 15 government institutions, 20 universities, 2 non-governmental organizations, and 12 corporations. RISK21 developed a tiered approach that is problem formulation-based, makes maximum use of prior knowledge, and is led by exposure science to produce a highly transparent and flexible visualization of and approach to assessing human safety and risk. The general principles underlying the RISK21 approach as well as an overview of the RISK21 Roadmap are presented here. This paper will be followed by a series of publications that will articulate the details that comprise this systematic approach. The purpose of this manuscript is to provide an overview

DEVELOPMENT OF 3-D COMPUTER MODELS OF HUMAN LUNG MORPHOLOGY FOR IMPROOVED RISK ASSESSMENT OF INHALED PARTICULATE MATTER

EPA Science Inventory

DEVELOPMENT OF 3-D COMPUTER MODELS OF HUMAN LUNG MORPHOLOGY FOR IMPROVED RISK ASSESSMENT OF INHALED PARTICULATE MATTER

Jeffry D. Schroeter, Curriculum in Toxicology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599; Ted B. Martonen, ETD, NHEERL, USEPA, RTP, NC 27711; Do...

Assessment of the Risk of Bias in Rehabilitation Reviews

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Farmer, Sybil E.; Wood, Duncan; Swain, Ian D.; Pandyan, Anand D.

2012-01-01

Systematic reviews are used to inform practice, and develop guidelines and protocols. A questionnaire to quantify the risk of bias in systematic reviews, the review paper assessment (RPA) tool, was developed and tested. A search of electronic databases provided a data set of review articles that were then independently reviewed by two assessors…

Ares Project Technology Assessment: Approach and Tools

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hueter, Uwe; Tyson, Richard

2010-01-01

Technology assessments provide a status of the development maturity of specific technologies. Along with benefit analysis, the risks the project assumes can be quantified. Normally due to budget constraints, the competing technologies are prioritized and decisions are made which ones to fund. A detailed technology development plan is produced for the selected technologies to provide a roadmap to reach the desired maturity by the project s critical design review. Technology assessments can be conducted for both technology only tasks or for product development programs. This paper is primarily biased toward the product development programs. The paper discusses the Ares Project s approach to technology assessment. System benefit analysis, risk assessment, technology prioritization, and technology readiness assessment are addressed. A description of the technology readiness level tool being used is provided.

National-Level Multi-Hazard Risk Assessments in Sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murnane, R. J.; Balog, S.; Fraser, S. A.; Jongman, B.; Van Ledden, M.; Phillips, E.; Simpson, A.

2017-12-01

National-level risk assessments can provide important baseline information for decision-making on risk management and risk financing strategies. In this study, multi-hazard risk assessments were undertaken for 9 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa: Cape Verde, Ethiopia, Kenya, Niger, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Senegal and Uganda. The assessment was part of the Building Disaster Resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa Program and aimed at supporting the development of multi-risk financing strategies to help African countries make informed decisions to mitigate the socio-economic, fiscal and financial impacts of disasters. The assessments considered hazards and exposures consistent with the years 2010 and 2050. We worked with multiple firms to develop the hazard, exposure and vulnerability data and the risk results. The hazards include: coastal flood, drought, earthquake, landslide, riverine flood, tropical cyclone wind and storm surge, and volcanoes. For hazards expected to vary with climate, the 2050 hazard is based on the IPCC RCP 6.0. Geolocated exposure data for 2010 and 2050 at a 15 arc second ( 0.5 km) resolution includes: structures as a function of seven development patterns; transportation networks including roads, bridges, tunnels and rail; critical facilities such as schools, hospitals, energy facilities and government buildings; crops; population; and, gross domestic product (GDP). The 2050 exposure values for population are based on the IPCC SSP 2. Values for other exposure data are a function of population change. Vulnerability was based on openly available vulnerability functions. Losses were based on replacement values (e.g., cost/m2 or cost/km). Risk results are provided in terms of annual average loss and a variety of return periods at the national and Admin 1 levels. Assessments of recent historical events are used to validate the model results. In the future, it would be useful to use hazard footprints of historical events for validation purposes. The results will be visualized in a set of national risk profile documents intended to form the basis for conversations with governments on risk reduction and risk financing strategies.

A New Method for Post-introduction Risk Assessment of Biological Invasions Among Introduced Shrubs in Developing Countries.

PubMed

Seburanga, J L; Bizuru, E; Mwavu, E N; Kampungu, K G; Gatesire, T; Kaplin, B A

2016-03-01

Risk-assessment methods are useful in collecting data that can help decision making to prevent the introduction of new species that have the potential of invading as well as in management of established taxa. Not only the complexity and unaffordability of available pre-introduction risk-assessment models make them rarely or inconsistently applied in the least-developed countries, but also there is lack of tools to assess the status of already introduced plant species. In this study, an affordable and rapid method of assessment of invasiveness among introduced plant species was developed and tested in Rwanda. This method defines three invasion stages (potential, effective, and suppressive invaders) and four levels of risk assessment: post-introduction assessment of species inherent invasive potential (Level 1), post-establishment assessment of species capacity of regeneration (Level 2), post-naturalization assessment of species range of occurrence and ability for long-distance dispersal (Level 3), and post-naturalization assessment of species ability to outcompete other plants in the community and transform the landscape (Level 4). A review of invasive species in Rwanda was developed through desk review, examination of herbarium records, and vegetation surveys. This method should be applicable in other countries that lack the means for a more conventional scientific investigation or under any circumstance where a quick and inexpensive assessment is needed. The method could be useful to environmental managers for timely intervention with strategies specific to different stages of invasion (post-introduction, post-establishment, or post-naturalization) and allocate resources accordingly.

A New Method for Post-introduction Risk Assessment of Biological Invasions Among Introduced Shrubs in Developing Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seburanga, J. L.; Bizuru, E.; Mwavu, E. N.; Kampungu, K. G.; Gatesire, T.; Kaplin, B. A.

2016-03-01

Risk-assessment methods are useful in collecting data that can help decision making to prevent the introduction of new species that have the potential of invading as well as in management of established taxa. Not only the complexity and unaffordability of available pre-introduction risk-assessment models make them rarely or inconsistently applied in the least-developed countries, but also there is lack of tools to assess the status of already introduced plant species. In this study, an affordable and rapid method of assessment of invasiveness among introduced plant species was developed and tested in Rwanda. This method defines three invasion stages (potential, effective, and suppressive invaders) and four levels of risk assessment: post-introduction assessment of species inherent invasive potential ( Level 1), post-establishment assessment of species capacity of regeneration ( Level 2), post-naturalization assessment of species range of occurrence and ability for long-distance dispersal ( Level 3), and post-naturalization assessment of species ability to outcompete other plants in the community and transform the landscape ( Level 4). A review of invasive species in Rwanda was developed through desk review, examination of herbarium records, and vegetation surveys. This method should be applicable in other countries that lack the means for a more conventional scientific investigation or under any circumstance where a quick and inexpensive assessment is needed. The method could be useful to environmental managers for timely intervention with strategies specific to different stages of invasion (post-introduction, post-establishment, or post-naturalization) and allocate resources accordingly.

Psychometric properties of the Blood-borne Virus Transmission Risk Assessment Questionnaire (BBV-TRAQ).

PubMed

Fry, Craig L; Lintzeris, Nick

2003-02-01

To develop a standard measure of blood-borne virus transmission risk behaviour, and examine the underlying psychometric properties. The Blood-borne Virus Transmission Risk Assessment Questionnaire (BBV-TRAQ) was developed over three consecutive phases of the original BBV-TRAQ study in adherence to classical scale development procedures, culminating in the recruitment of a development sample of current injecting drug users via convenience and snowball sampling. Needle and syringe programmes (NSPs), medical clinics, alcohol/drug agencies, peer-based and outreach organizations across inner and outer metropolitan Melbourne. Two hundred and nine current injecting drug users. The mean age was 27 years, 68% were male, 65% unemployed, 36% with prison history and 25% in methadone maintenance. BBV-TRAQ items cover specific injecting, sexual and skin penetration risk practices. BBV-TRAQ characteristics were assessed via measures of internal and test-retest reliability; collateral validation; and principal components analyses. The BBV-TRAQ has satisfactory psychometric properties. Internal (a=0.87), test-retest (r=0.84) and inter-observer reliability results were high, suggesting that the instrument provides a reliable measure of BBV risk behaviour and is reliable over time and across interviewers. A principal components analysis with varimax rotation produced a parsimonious factor solution despite modest communality, and indicated that three factors (injecting, sex and skin penetration/hygiene risks) are required to describe BBV risk behaviour. The BBV-TRAQ is reliable and represents the first risk assessment tool to incorporate sufficient coverage of injecting, sex and other skin penetration risk practices to be considered truly content valid. The questionnaire is indicated for use in addictions research, clinical, peer education and BBV risk behaviour surveillance settings.

Partial meniscectomy is associated with increased risk of incident radiographic osteoarthritis and worsening cartilage damage in the following year

PubMed Central

Roemer, Frank W.; Kwoh, C. Kent; Hannon, Michael J.; Hunter, David J.; Eckstein, Felix; Grago, Jason; Boudreau, Robert M.; Englund, Martin; Guermazi, Ali

2016-01-01

Objectives To assess whether partial meniscectomy is associated with increased risk of radiographic osteoarthritis (ROA) and worsening cartilage damage in the following year. Methods We studied 355 knees from the Osteoarthritis Initiative that developed ROA (Kellgren-Lawrence grade ≥ 2), which were matched with control knees. The MR images were assessed using the semi-quantitative MOAKS system. Conditional logistic regression was applied to estimate risk of incident ROA. Logistic regression was used to assess the risk of worsening cartilage damage in knees with partial meniscectomy that developed ROA. Results In the group with incident ROA, 4.4% underwent partial meniscectomy during the year prior to the case-defining visit, compared with none of the knees that did not develop ROA. All (n=31) knees that had partial meniscectomy and 58.9% (n=165) of the knees with prevalent meniscal damage developed ROA (OR=2.51, 95% CI [1.73, 3.64]). In knees that developed ROA, partial meniscectomy was associated with an increased risk of worsening cartilage damage (OR=4.51, 95% CI [1.53, 13.33]). Conclusions The probability of having had partial meniscectomy was higher in knees that developed ROA. When looking only at knees that developed ROA, partial meniscectomy was associated with greater risk of worsening cartilage damage. PMID:27121931

Guidance for Considering and Using Open Literature Toxicity Studies to Support Human Health Risk Assessment

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This guidance was developed to assist OPP scientists and is intended for use in OPP’s risk assessments. It is intended to ensure consistent consideration, use, and documentation of information in the open literature by OPP scientists and risk assessors.

A Simplified Approach to Risk Assessment Based on System Dynamics: An Industrial Case Study.

PubMed

Garbolino, Emmanuel; Chery, Jean-Pierre; Guarnieri, Franck

2016-01-01

Seveso plants are complex sociotechnical systems, which makes it appropriate to support any risk assessment with a model of the system. However, more often than not, this step is only partially addressed, simplified, or avoided in safety reports. At the same time, investigations have shown that the complexity of industrial systems is frequently a factor in accidents, due to interactions between their technical, human, and organizational dimensions. In order to handle both this complexity and changes in the system over time, this article proposes an original and simplified qualitative risk evaluation method based on the system dynamics theory developed by Forrester in the early 1960s. The methodology supports the development of a dynamic risk assessment framework dedicated to industrial activities. It consists of 10 complementary steps grouped into two main activities: system dynamics modeling of the sociotechnical system and risk analysis. This system dynamics risk analysis is applied to a case study of a chemical plant and provides a way to assess the technological and organizational components of safety. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Cumulative environmental risk in substance abusing women: early intervention, parenting stress, child abuse potential and child development☆

PubMed Central

Schuler, Maureen E.; Black, Maureen M.; Kettinger, Laurie; Harrington, Donna

2011-01-01

Objective To assess the relationship between cumulative environmental risks and early intervention, parenting attitudes, potential for child abuse and child development in substance abusing mothers. Method We studied 161 substance-abusing women, from a randomized longitudinal study of a home based early intervention, who had custody of their children through 18 months. The intervention group received weekly home visits in the first 6 months and biweekly visits from 6 to 18 months. Parenting stress and child abuse potential were assessed at 6 and 18 months postpartum. Children’s mental and motor development (Bayley MDI and PDI) and language development (REEL) were assessed at 6, 12, and 18 months postpartum. Ten maternal risk factors were assessed: maternal depression, domestic violence, nondomestic violence, family size, incarceration, no significant other in home, negative life events, psychiatric problems, homelessness, and severity of drug use. Level of risk was recoded into four categories (2 or less, 3, 4, and 5 or more), which had adequate cell sizes for repeated measures analysis. Data analysis Repeated measures analyses were run to examine how level of risk and group (intervention or control) were related to parenting stress, child abuse potential, and children’s mental, motor and language development over time. Results Parenting stress and child abuse potential were higher for women with five risks or more compared with women who had four or fewer risks; children’s mental, motor, and language development were not related to level of risk. Children in the intervention group had significantly higher scores on the PDI at 6 and 18 months (107.4 vs. 103.6 and 101.1 vs. 97.2) and had marginally better scores on the MDI at 6 and 12 months (107.7 vs. 104.2 and 103.6 vs. 100.1), compared to the control group. Conclusion Compared to drug-abusing women with fewer than five risks, women with five or more risks found parenting more stressful and indicated greater inclination towards abusive and neglectful behavior, placing their infants at increased risk for poor parenting, abuse and neglect. Early home-based intervention in high-risk families may be beneficial to infant development. PMID:14550327

An information diffusion technique to assess integrated hazard risks.

PubMed

Huang, Chongfu; Huang, Yundong

2018-02-01

An integrated risk is a scene in the future associated with some adverse incident caused by multiple hazards. An integrated probability risk is the expected value of disaster. Due to the difficulty of assessing an integrated probability risk with a small sample, weighting methods and copulas are employed to avoid this obstacle. To resolve the problem, in this paper, we develop the information diffusion technique to construct a joint probability distribution and a vulnerability surface. Then, an integrated risk can be directly assessed by using a small sample. A case of an integrated risk caused by flood and earthquake is given to show how the suggested technique is used to assess the integrated risk of annual property loss. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Control of the development and prevalence of antimicrobial resistance in bacteria of food animal origin in Japan: a new approach for risk management of antimicrobial veterinary medicinal products in Japan.

PubMed

Asai, Tetsuo; Hiki, Mototaka; Ozawa, Manao; Koike, Ryoji; Eguchi, Kaoru; Kawanishi, Michiko; Kojima, Akemi; Endoh, Yuuko S; Hamamoto, Shuichi; Sakai, Masato; Sekiya, Tatsuro

2014-03-01

Antimicrobial agents are essential for controlling bacterial disease in food-producing animals and contribute to the stable production of safe animal products. The use of antimicrobial agents in these animals affects the emergence and prevalence of antimicrobial resistance in bacteria isolated from animals and animal products. As disease-causing bacteria are often transferred from food-producing animals to humans, the food chain is considered a route of transmission for the resistant bacteria and/or resistance genes. The Food Safety Commission of Japan (FSC) has been assessing the risk posed to human health by the transmission of antimicrobial-resistant bacteria from livestock products via the food chain. In addition to the FSC's risk assessments, the Japanese Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries has developed risk-management guidelines to determine feasible risk-management options for the use of antimicrobial veterinary medicinal products during farming practices. This report includes information on risk assessment and novel approaches for risk management of antimicrobial veterinary medicinal products for mitigating the risk of development and prevalence of antimicrobial resistance in bacteria originating from food-producing animals in Japan.

Project risk management in the construction of high-rise buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Titarenko, Boris; Hasnaoui, Amir; Titarenko, Roman; Buzuk, Liliya

2018-03-01

This paper shows the project risk management methods, which allow to better identify risks in the construction of high-rise buildings and to manage them throughout the life cycle of the project. One of the project risk management processes is a quantitative analysis of risks. The quantitative analysis usually includes the assessment of the potential impact of project risks and their probabilities. This paper shows the most popular methods of risk probability assessment and tries to indicate the advantages of the robust approach over the traditional methods. Within the framework of the project risk management model a robust approach of P. Huber is applied and expanded for the tasks of regression analysis of project data. The suggested algorithms used to assess the parameters in statistical models allow to obtain reliable estimates. A review of the theoretical problems of the development of robust models built on the methodology of the minimax estimates was done and the algorithm for the situation of asymmetric "contamination" was developed.

The Colorado Sex Offender Risk Scale.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

English, Kim; Retzlaff, Paul; Kleinsasser, Dennis

2002-01-01

Documents the development of an adult sex offender risk assessment tool. A risk scale was developed based upon criminal and therapeutic outcomes of 494 sex offenders. The final risk scale included prior juvenile felony convictions, prior adult felony convictions, victim being intoxicated, denial in therapy, sexual deviance in therapy, and…

Managing Risk Assessment in Science Departments.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Forlin, Peter; Forlin, Chris

1997-01-01

Describes a health-and-safety risk-management audit in four Queensland, Australia high schools. One major outcome of this research project is the development of a comprehensive risk-management policy in compliance with the law. Other outcomes include the preparation of a professional-development package in risk-management policy for use as a…

European Social Work Research Association SIG to Study Decisions, Assessment, and Risk.

PubMed

Taylor, Brian; Killick, Campbell; Bertotti, Teresa; Enosh, Guy; Gautschi, Joel; Hietamäki, Johanna; Sicora, Alessandro; Whittaker, Andrew

2018-01-01

The increasing interest in professional judgement and decision making is often separate from the discourse about "risk," and the time-honored focus on assessment. The need to develop research in and across these topics was recognized in the founding of a Decisions, Assessment, and Risk Special Interest Group (DARSIG) by the European Social Work Research Association in 2014. The Group's interests include cognitive judgements; decision processes with clients, families, other professionals and courts; assessment tools and processes; the assessment, communication, and management of risk; and legal, ethical, and emotional aspects of these. This article outlines the founding and scope of DARSIG; gives an overview of decision making, assessment, and risk for practice; illustrates connections between these; and highlights future research directions. Professional knowledge about decision making, assessment, and risk complements knowledge about effectiveness of interventions. DARSIG promises to be a useful mechanism for the purpose.

OPPT workplan risk assessment for antimony trioxide (CASRN ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This assessment will focus on the ecological hazards that may be associated with ATO use in flame retardants. Because ATO’s use in PET plastics was previously evaluated and determined to present minimal concerns for human health and the environment (EU, 2008), this use scenario will not be evaluated here. Human health risks have been evaluated previously and will be summarized in this assessment. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.

Reducing Risk in DoD Software-Intensive Systems Development

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-03-01

intensive systems development risk. This research addresses the use of the Technical Readiness Assessment (TRA) using the nine-level software Technology...The software TRLs are ineffective in reducing technical risk for the software component development. • Without the software TRLs, there is no...effective method to perform software TRA or reduce the technical development risk. The software component will behave as a new, untried technology in nearly

Review of Chinese Environmental Risk Assessment Regulations and Case Studies

PubMed Central

Meng, Xiaojie; Zhang, Yan; Zhao, Yuchao; Lou, In Chio; Gao, Jixi

2012-01-01

Environmental risk assessment is an essential step in the development of solutions for pollution problems and new environmental regulations. An assessment system for environmental risks has been developed in China in recent decades. However, many of the Chinese technical guidelines, standards, and regulations were directly adapted from those of developed countries, and were not based on the Chinese environmental and socioeconomic context. Although existing environmental regulations for pollutants are usually obtained by extrapolations from high-dose toxicological data to low-dose scenarios using linear-non-threshold (LNT) models, toxicologists have argued that J-shaped or inverse J-shaped curves may dominate the dose–response relationships for environmental pollutants at low doses because low exposures stimulate biological protective mechanisms that are ineffective at higher doses. The costs of regulations based on LNT and J-shaped models could therefore be dramatically different. Since economic factors strongly affect the decision-making process, particularly for developing countries, it is time to strengthen basic research to provide more scientific support for Chinese environmental regulations. In this paper, we summarize current Chinese environmental policies and standards and the application of environmental risk assessment in China, and recommend a more scientific approach to the development of Chinese regulations. PMID:22740787

A Framework for Incorporating Patient Preferences Regarding Benefits and Risks into Regulatory Assessment of Medical Technologies.

PubMed

Ho, Martin; Saha, Anindita; McCleary, K Kimberly; Levitan, Bennett; Christopher, Stephanie; Zandlo, Kristen; Braithwaite, R Scott; Hauber, A Brett

In response to 2012 guidance in which the US Food and Drug Administration's (FDA) Center for Devices and Radiological Health (CDRH) stated the importance of patient-centric measures in regulatory benefit-risk assessments, the Medical Device Innovation Consortium (MDIC) initiated a project. The project was used to develop a framework to help the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and industry sponsors understand how patient preferences regarding benefit and risk might be integrated into the review of innovative medical devices. A public-private partnership of experts from medical device industry, government, academia and non-profits collaborated on development of the MDIC patient centered benefit-risk framework. The MDIC Framework examines what patient preference information is and the potential use and value of patient preference information in the regulatory process and across the product development life cycle. The MDIC Framework also includes a catalog of patient preference assessment methods and an agenda for future research to advance the field. This article discusses key concepts in patient preference assessment of particular importance for regulators and researchers that are addressed in the MDIC Framework for patient centered benefit-risk assessment as well as the unique public-private collaboration that led its development. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessing Risk/Benefit for Trials Using Preclinical Evidence: A Proposal

PubMed Central

Kimmelman, Jonathan; Henderson, Valerie C.

2015-01-01

Abstract Moral evaluation of risk/benefit in early phase studies requires assessing the clinical promise of a candidate intervention using preclinical evidence. Yet there is little to guide ethics committees, investigators, sponsors or other stakeholders morally charged with making these assessments (“evaluators”). In what follows, we draw on published guidelines for preclinical study design to develop a structured process for assessing the clinical promise of new interventions. In the first step, evaluators gather all relevant preclinical studies, assess the magnitude of treatment effects, and determine clinical promise in light of various threats to valid clinical inference. In the second step, evaluators adjust assessments of clinical promise from preclinical studies by examining how other agents in the same reference class-and supported by similar evidence- have fared in clinical development. Assessments of clinical promise can then be fed into moral evaluation of risk and benefit in early phase trials. Though our approach has limitations, it offers a systematic and transparent method for assessing risk/benefit in early phase trials of novel interventions. PMID:26463620

Evidence-based guidelines for fall prevention in Korea

PubMed Central

Kim, Kwang-Il; Jung, Hye-Kyung; Kim, Chang Oh; Kim, Soo-Kyung; Cho, Hyun-Ho; Kim, Dae Yul; Ha, Yong-Chan; Hwang, Sung-Hee; Won, Chang Won; Lim, Jae-Young; Kim, Hyun Jung; Kim, Jae Gyu

2017-01-01

Falls and fall-related injuries are common in older populations and have negative effects on quality of life and independence. Falling is also associated with increased morbidity, mortality, nursing home admission, and medical costs. Korea has experienced an extreme demographic shift with its population aging at the fastest pace among developed countries, so it is important to assess fall risks and develop interventions for high-risk populations. Guidelines for the prevention of falls were first developed by the Korean Association of Internal Medicine and the Korean Geriatrics Society. These guidelines were developed through an adaptation process as an evidence-based method; four guidelines were retrieved via systematic review and the Appraisal of Guidelines for Research and Evaluation II process, and seven recommendations were developed based on the Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation framework. Because falls are the result of various factors, the guidelines include a multidimensional assessment and multimodal strategy. The guidelines were developed for primary physicians as well as patients and the general population. They provide detailed recommendations and concrete measures to assess risk and prevent falls among older people. PMID:28049285

Recommendations for assessing the risk of bias in systematic reviews of health-care interventions.

PubMed

Viswanathan, Meera; Patnode, Carrie D; Berkman, Nancy D; Bass, Eric B; Chang, Stephanie; Hartling, Lisa; Murad, M Hassan; Treadwell, Jonathan R; Kane, Robert L

2018-05-01

Risk-of-bias assessment is a central component of systematic reviews, but little conclusive empirical evidence exists on the validity of such assessments. In the context of such uncertainty, we present pragmatic recommendations that promote transparency and reproducibility in processes, address methodological advances in the risk-of-bias assessment, and can be applied consistently across review topics. Epidemiological study design principles; available empirical evidence, risk-of-bias tools, and guidance; and workgroup consensus. We developed recommendations for assessing the risk of bias of studies of health-care interventions specific to framing the focus and scope of risk-of-bias assessment; selecting the risk-of-bias categories; choosing assessment instruments; and conducting, analyzing, and presenting results of risk-of-bias assessments. Key recommendations include transparency and reproducibility of judgments, separating risk of bias from other constructs such as applicability and precision, and evaluating the risk of bias per outcome. We recommend against certain past practices, such as focusing on reporting quality, relying solely on study design or numerical quality scores, and automatically downgrading for industry sponsorship. Risk-of-bias assessment remains a challenging but essential step in systematic reviews. We presented standards to promote transparency of judgments. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessing Arsenic Bioavailability In Soil When In Vitro Gastrointestinal Methods Are The Only Option

EPA Science Inventory

Human health risk assessment science continues to mature with bioavailability-based risk assessment frameworks being developed and/or considered for implementation in the U.S., Canada, the European Union, Australia and other countries. Incidental ingestion is an important exposu...

Community, State, and Federal Approaches to Cumulative Risk Assessment: Challenges and Opportunities for Integration

EPA Science Inventory

Community, state, and federal approaches to conventional and cumulative risk assessment (CRA) were described and compared to assess similarities and differences, and develop recommendations for a consistent CRA approach, acceptable across each level as a rigorous scientific metho...

An EPA FRAMEWORK ?FOR WEIGHT OF EVIDENCE ?IN ENVIRONMENTal ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Risk Assessment Forum has developed a framework and guidelines for inference by weight of evidence. Like the Agency’s Guidelines for Ecological Risk Assessment, these guidelines are sufficiently general to be adapted to a wi...

Predicting child maltreatment: A meta-analysis of the predictive validity of risk assessment instruments.

PubMed

van der Put, Claudia E; Assink, Mark; Boekhout van Solinge, Noëlle F

2017-11-01

Risk assessment is crucial in preventing child maltreatment since it can identify high-risk cases in need of child protection intervention. Despite widespread use of risk assessment instruments in child welfare, it is unknown how well these instruments predict maltreatment and what instrument characteristics are associated with higher levels of predictive validity. Therefore, a multilevel meta-analysis was conducted to examine the predictive accuracy of (characteristics of) risk assessment instruments. A literature search yielded 30 independent studies (N=87,329) examining the predictive validity of 27 different risk assessment instruments. From these studies, 67 effect sizes could be extracted. Overall, a medium significant effect was found (AUC=0.681), indicating a moderate predictive accuracy. Moderator analyses revealed that onset of maltreatment can be better predicted than recurrence of maltreatment, which is a promising finding for early detection and prevention of child maltreatment. In addition, actuarial instruments were found to outperform clinical instruments. To bring risk and needs assessment in child welfare to a higher level, actuarial instruments should be further developed and strengthened by distinguishing risk assessment from needs assessment and by integrating risk assessment with case management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Teaching Tool for Establishing Risk of Oral Health Deterioration in Elderly Patients: Development, Implementation, and Evaluation at a U.S. Dental School.

PubMed

Marchini, Leonardo; Hartshorn, Jennifer E; Cowen, Howard; Dawson, Deborah V; Johnsen, David C

2017-11-01

The aim of this study was to develop and evaluate a learning strategy using critical thinking to teach dental students how to assess the risk of rapid oral health deterioration (ROHD) among elderly patients. A learning guide was developed using risk factors identified in the literature and the steps that expert faculty members apply in their clinical decision making, summarized in a set of ten steps. A new system of labeling risk was developed for the elderly population, which correlates the level of risk with the amount of disease. Participants in the study were all 91 fourth-year dental students in two subsequent classes who took part in a five-week Geriatrics and Special Needs Clinic rotation in the spring of 2015 and 2016. The students were introduced to the ROHD concept and asked to use the guide in a presentation during their rotation. The students were graded on an A, G, or M scale (Applied concept, Grasped and applied concept, or Missed application of concept). Students were also asked to assess their learning experience, and their answers were thematically grouped and analyzed. For eight of the ten steps, at least 93% of the students were graded A or G. The exceptions were the steps about developing a communications plan, which was missed by 23.1%, and self-assessment, which was missed by 30.8%. Interexaminer agreement on students' applying (A + G grades) versus missing the step was moderate or high on six of ten items. Nearly all the students (98.7%) considered assessing the risk of ROHD an important or very important skill. In this study, a learning strategy to teach dental students how to assess the risk of ROHD among elderly patients was developed and successfully implemented.

HKF-R 10 - screening for predicting chronicity in acute low back pain (LBP): a prospective clinical trial.

PubMed

Neubauer, Eva; Junge, Astrid; Pirron, Peter; Seemann, Hanne; Schiltenwolf, Marcus

2006-08-01

Prospective cohort study. To develop a short instrument to reliably predict chronicity in low back pain (LBP). Health care expenditures on the treatment of low back pain continue to increase. It is therefore important to prevent the development of chronicity. In Germany, there is at present no early risk assessment tool to predict the risk of developing chronic LBP for patients presenting with acute LBP. Undertaken in an orthopedic practice setting, this study examined known risk factors for chronicity. It resulted in the development of a short questionnaire that successfully predicted the course of chronicity with an accuracy of 78%. A cohort of 192 orthopaedic outpatients was assessed for clinical, behavioral, emotional, and cognitive parameters bsed on a self-report test battery of 167 established items predictive for chronicity in LBP. Chronicity was defined as back pain persisting for longer than six months. Logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate the predictive value of all items significantly associated with the dependent variable. The study found the following items to have the strongest predictive value in the development of chronicity: "How strong was your back pain during the last week when it was most tolerable?" and the question "How much residual pain would you be willing to tolerate while still considering the therapy successful?" These were followed by the variables for "Duration of existing LBP" (more than eight days), the patient's educational level (low levels are related to higher risks of chronicity) and pain being experienced elsewhere in the body. Other significant factors were five items assessing depression (Zung) and the palliative effect of therapeutic massage (where a positive correlation was found). Female patients have a higher risk for chronicity, as do patients with a high total score on the scales assessing "catastrophizing thoughts" and thoughts of "helplessness". Using the items listed above, the study was able to predict a patient's risk of developing chronic LBP with a probability of 78%. These items were assembled in a brief questionnaire and were paired with a corresponding evaluative tool. This enables practitioners to assess an individual patient's risk for chronicity by means of a simple calculator in just a few minutes. A validation study for the questionnaire is currently being prepared. MINI ABSTRACT: The objective of this study was the development of a brief questionnaire to assess the risk for chronicity for LBP.

Development and evaluation of the McKnight Risk Factor Survey for assessing potential risk and protective factors for disordered eating in preadolescent and adolescent girls.

PubMed

Shisslak, C M; Renger, R; Sharpe, T; Crago, M; McKnight, K M; Gray, N; Bryson, S; Estes, L S; Parnaby, O G; Killen, J; Taylor, C B

1999-03-01

To describe the development, test-retest reliability, internal consistency, and convergent validity of the McKnight Risk Factor Survey-III (MRFS-III). The MRFS-III was designed to assess a number of potential risk and protective factors for the development of disordered eating in preadolescent and adolescent girls. Several versions of the MRFS were pilot tested before the MRFS-III was administered to a sample of 651 4th through 12th- grade girls to establish its psychometric properties. Most of the test-retest reliability coefficients of individual items on the MRFS-III were r > .40. Alpha coefficients for each risk and protective factor domain on the MRFS-III were also computed. The majority of these coefficients were r > .60. High convergent validity coefficients were obtained for specific items on the MRFS-III and measures of self-esteem (Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale) and weight concerns (Weight Concerns Scale). The test-retest reliability, internal consistency, and convergent validity of the MRFS-III suggest that it is a useful new instrument to assess potential risk and protective factors for the development of disordered eating in preadolescent and adolescent girls.

Risk Assessment and Risk Governance of Liquefied Natural Gas Development in Gladstone, Australia.

PubMed

van der Vegt, R G

2018-02-26

This article is a retrospective analysis of liquefied natural gas development (LNG) in Gladstone, Australia by using the structure of the risk governance framework developed by the International Risk Governance Council (IRGC). Since 2010 the port of Gladstone has undergone extensive expansion to facilitate the increasing coal export as well as the new development of three recently completed LNG facilities. Significant environmental and socio-economic impacts and concerns have occurred as a result of these developments. The overall aim of the article, therefore, is to identify the risk governance deficits that arose and to formulate processes capable of improving similar decision-making problems in the future. The structure of the IRGC framework is followed because it represents a broad analytical approach for considering risk assessment and risk governance in Gladstone in ways that include, but also go beyond, the risk approach of the ISO 31000:2009 standard that was employed at the time. The IRGC risk framework is argued to be a consistent and comprehensive risk governance framework that integrates scientific, economic, social, and cultural aspects and advocates the notion of inclusive risk governance through stakeholder communication and involvement. Key aspects related to risk preassessment, risk appraisal, risk tolerability and acceptability, risk management, and stakeholder communication and involvement are considered. The results indicate that the risk governance deficits include aspects related to (i) the risk matrix methodology, (ii) reflecting uncertainties, (iii) cumulative risks, (iv) the regulatory process, and (v) stakeholder communication and involvement. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

The Dynamic Risk Assessment and Management System: An Assessment of Immediate Risk of Violence for Individuals with Offending and Challenging Behaviour

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lindsay, William R.; Murphy, Lesley; Smith, Gordon; Murphy, Daniel; Edwards, Zoe; Chittock, Chris; Grieve, Alan; Young, Steven J.

2004-01-01

Purpose: Research on dynamic risk assessment has developed over the last 10 years and a number of variables have emerged as being possible predictors of future sexual and violent offences. These variables include hostile attitude/anger and compliance with routine. In 2002, Thornton ("Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research & Treatment" 14, 139)…

Ecological impact assessments fail to reduce risk of bat casualties at wind farms.

PubMed

Lintott, Paul R; Richardson, Suzanne M; Hosken, David J; Fensome, Sophie A; Mathews, Fiona

2016-11-07

Demand for renewable energy is rising exponentially. While this has benefits in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, there may be costs to biodiversity [1]. Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) are the main tool used across the world to predict the overall positive and negative effects of renewable energy developments before planning consent is given, and the Ecological Impact Assessments (EcIAs) within them assess their species-specific effects. Given that EIAs are undertaken globally, are extremely expensive, and are enshrined in legislation, their place in evidence-based decision making deserves evaluation. Here we assess how well EIAs of wind-farm developments protect bats. We found they do not predict the risks to bats accurately, and even in those cases where high risk was correctly identified, the mitigation deployed did not avert the risk. Given that the primary purpose of an EIA is to make planning decisions evidence-based, our results indicate that EIA mitigation strategies used to date have been ineffective in protecting bats. In the future, greater emphasis should be placed on assessing the actual impacts post-construction and on developing effective mitigation strategies. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Post-disaster Risk Assessment for Hilly Terrain exposed to Seismic Loading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yates, Katherine; Villeneuve, Marlene; Wilson, Thomas

2013-04-01

The 2010-present Canterbury earthquake sequence in the central South Island of New Zealand has identified and highlighted the value of practical, standardised and coordinated geotechnical risk assessment guidelines for inhabited structures in the aftermath of a geotechnical disaster. The lack of such guidelines and provisions to enforce risk assessments was a major gap which hindered coordinated, timely and transparent management of geotechnical risk. The earthquake sequence initiated a series of rockfall, cliff collapse and landslide events around the Port Hills southeast of Christchurch. This was particularly the case with the 22 February 2011 earthquakes, which put thousands of people inhabiting the area at risk. Lives were lost and thousands of houses and critical infrastructure were damaged. Given the highly seismic environment in New Zealand and a significant number of active faults near population centres, it is prudent to develop such guidelines to ensure response mechanisms and geotechnical risk assessment is effective following an earthquake rupture in a largely populated urban environment. For response and associated risk assessments to be effective, the mechanisms of the geotechnical failure should be taken into consideration as part of the life safety assessment. This is to ensure that the hazard's potential risk is fully assessed and encompassed in decisions regarding life safety. This paper examines the event sequence, slope failure mechanisms and the geotechnical risk management approach that developed immediately post-earthquake. It highlights experiences from key municipal, management and operational stakeholders who were involved in geotechnical risk assessment during the Canterbury earthquake sequence, and sheds light on the evolution of information needed through time during the emergency response and identify the hard won lessons. It then discusses what is needed for life safety assessment post-earthquake and create awareness of potential geotechnical hazards. This is not only important to New Zealand but has international implications as there are many other regions of the world also subject to high seismic risk.

Sexual Risk Assessment for People with Intellectual Disabilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Embregts, P.; van den Bogaard, K.; Hendriks, L.; Heestermans, M.; Schuitemaker, M.; van Wouwe, H.

2010-01-01

Given that sexually offensive behavior on the part of people with intellectual disabilities has been identified as a significant problem, we developed a risk assessment questionnaire, that takes not only various static and dynamic factors into account but also environmental risk variables. Psychologists and staff members completed this Risk…

School Security Assessment Programme in Australia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marrapodi, John

2007-01-01

This article describes a successful security risk management programme in Australia. The state-wide programme follows a structured risk management approach focusing on the safety and security of people, information, provision, and assets in the school environment. To assist school principals, a Security Risk Assessment Programme was developed on a…

77 FR 41784 - Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS); Announcement of Availability of Literature Searches...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-07-16

... health assessment program that evaluates quantitative and qualitative risk information on effects that..., National Center for Environmental Assessment, (mail code: 8601P), Office of Research and Development, U.S... quantitative and qualitative risk information on effects that may result from exposure to specific chemical...

Regional risk assessment for contaminated sites part 2: ranking of potentially contaminated sites.

PubMed

Pizzol, Lisa; Critto, Andrea; Agostini, Paola; Marcomini, Antonio

2011-11-01

Environmental risks are traditionally assessed and presented in non spatial ways although the heterogeneity of the contaminants spatial distributions, the spatial positions and relations between receptors and stressors, as well as the spatial distribution of the variables involved in the risk assessment, strongly influence exposure estimations and hence risks. Taking into account spatial variability is increasingly being recognized as a further and essential step in sound exposure and risk assessment. To address this issue an innovative methodology which integrates spatial analysis and a relative risk approach was developed. The purpose of this methodology is to prioritize sites at regional scale where a preliminary site investigation may be required. The methodology aimed at supporting the inventory of contaminated sites was implemented within the spatial decision support sYstem for Regional rIsk Assessment of DEgraded land, SYRIADE, and was applied to the case-study of the Upper Silesia region (Poland). The developed methodology and tool are both flexible and easy to adapt to different regional contexts, allowing the user to introduce the regional relevant parameters identified on the basis of user expertise and regional data availability. Moreover, the used GIS functionalities, integrated with mathematical approaches, allow to take into consideration, all at once, the multiplicity of sources and impacted receptors within the region of concern, to assess the risks posed by all contaminated sites in the region and, finally, to provide a risk-based ranking of the potentially contaminated sites. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Clinical risk management approach for long-duration space missions.

PubMed

Gray, Gary W; Sargsyan, Ashot E; Davis, Jeffrey R

2010-12-01

In the process of crewmember evaluation and certification for long-duration orbital missions, the International Space Station (ISS) Multilateral Space Medicine Board (MSMB) encounters a surprisingly wide spectrum of clinical problems. Some of these conditions are identified within the ISS Medical Standards as requiring special consideration, or as falling outside the consensus Medical Standards promulgated for the ISS program. To assess the suitability for long-duration missions on ISS for individuals with medical problems that fall outside of standards or are otherwise of significant concern, the MSMB has developed a risk matrix approach to assess the risks to the individual, the mission, and the program. The goal of this risk assessment is to provide a more objective, evidence- and risk-based approach for aeromedical disposition. Using a 4 x 4 risk matrix, the probability of an event is plotted against the potential impact. Event probability is derived from a detailed review of clinical and aerospace literature, and based on the best available evidence. The event impact (consequences) is assessed and assigned within the matrix. The result has been a refinement of MSMB case assessment based on evidence-based data incorporated into a risk stratification process. This has encouraged an objective assessment of risk and, in some cases, has resulted in recertification of crewmembers with medical conditions which hitherto would likely have been disqualifying. This paper describes a risk matrix approach developed for MSMB disposition decisions. Such an approach promotes objective, evidence-based decision-making and is broadly applicable within the aerospace medicine community.

Characterizing risk assessments for the development of occupational exposure limits for engineered nanomaterials.

PubMed

Schulte, P A; Kuempel, E D; Drew, N M

2018-06-01

The commercialization of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) began in the early 2000's. Since then the number of commercial products and the number of workers potentially exposed to ENMs is growing, as is the need to evaluate and manage the potential health risks. Occupational exposure limits (OELs) have been developed for some of the first generation of ENMs. These OELs have been based on risk assessments that progressed from qualitative to quantitative as nanotoxicology data became available. In this paper, that progression is characterized. It traces OEL development through the qualitative approach of general groups of ENMs based primarily on read-across with other materials to quantitative risk assessments for nanoscale particles including titanium dioxide, carbon nanotubes and nanofibers, silver nanoparticles, and cellulose nanocrystals. These represent prototypic approaches to risk assessment and OEL development for ENMs. Such substance-by-substance efforts are not practical given the insufficient data for many ENMs that are currently being used or potentially entering commerce. Consequently, categorical approaches are emerging to group and rank ENMs by hazard and potential health risk. The strengths and limitations of these approaches are described, and future derivations and research needs are discussed. Critical needs in moving forward with understanding the health effects of the numerous EMNs include more standardized and accessible quantitative data on the toxicity and physicochemical properties of ENMs. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Resources for global risk assessment: the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) and Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) databases.

PubMed

Wullenweber, Andrea; Kroner, Oliver; Kohrman, Melissa; Maier, Andrew; Dourson, Michael; Rak, Andrew; Wexler, Philip; Tomljanovic, Chuck

2008-11-15

The rate of chemical synthesis and use has outpaced the development of risk values and the resolution of risk assessment methodology questions. In addition, available risk values derived by different organizations may vary due to scientific judgments, mission of the organization, or use of more recently published data. Further, each organization derives values for a unique chemical list so it can be challenging to locate data on a given chemical. Two Internet resources are available to address these issues. First, the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) database (www.tera.org/iter) provides chronic human health risk assessment data from a variety of organizations worldwide in a side-by-side format, explains differences in risk values derived by different organizations, and links directly to each organization's website for more detailed information. It is also the only database that includes risk information from independent parties whose risk values have undergone independent peer review. Second, the Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) is a database of in progress chemical risk assessment work, and includes non-chemical information related to human health risk assessment, such as training modules, white papers and risk documents. RiskIE is available at http://www.allianceforrisk.org/RiskIE.htm, and will join ITER on National Library of Medicine's TOXNET (http://toxnet.nlm.nih.gov/). Together, ITER and RiskIE provide risk assessors essential tools for easily identifying and comparing available risk data, for sharing in progress assessments, and for enhancing interaction among risk assessment groups to decrease duplication of effort and to harmonize risk assessment procedures across organizations.

Understanding Interrater Reliability and Validity of Risk Assessment Tools Used to Predict Adverse Clinical Events.

PubMed

Siedlecki, Sandra L; Albert, Nancy M

This article will describe how to assess interrater reliability and validity of risk assessment tools, using easy-to-follow formulas, and to provide calculations that demonstrate principles discussed. Clinical nurse specialists should be able to identify risk assessment tools that provide high-quality interrater reliability and the highest validity for predicting true events of importance to clinical settings. Making best practice recommendations for assessment tool use is critical to high-quality patient care and safe practices that impact patient outcomes and nursing resources. Optimal risk assessment tool selection requires knowledge about interrater reliability and tool validity. The clinical nurse specialist will understand the reliability and validity issues associated with risk assessment tools, and be able to evaluate tools using basic calculations. Risk assessment tools are developed to objectively predict quality and safety events and ultimately reduce the risk of event occurrence through preventive interventions. To ensure high-quality tool use, clinical nurse specialists must critically assess tool properties. The better the tool's ability to predict adverse events, the more likely that event risk is mediated. Interrater reliability and validity assessment is relatively an easy skill to master and will result in better decisions when selecting or making recommendations for risk assessment tool use.

Earthquake Loss Assessment for the Evaluation of the Sovereign Risk and Financial Sustainability of Countries and Cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cardona, O. D.

2013-05-01

Recently earthquakes have struck cities both from developing as well as developed countries, revealing significant knowledge gaps and the need to improve the quality of input data and of the assumptions of the risk models. The quake and tsunami in Japan (2011) and the disasters due to earthquakes in Haiti (2010), Chile (2010), New Zealand (2011) and Spain (2011), only to mention some unexpected impacts in different regions, have left several concerns regarding hazard assessment as well as regarding the associated uncertainties to the estimation of the future losses. Understanding probable losses and reconstruction costs due to earthquakes creates powerful incentives for countries to develop planning options and tools to cope with sovereign risk, including allocating the sustained budgetary resources necessary to reduce those potential damages and safeguard development. Therefore the use of robust risk models is a need to assess the future economic impacts, the country's fiscal responsibilities and the contingent liabilities for governments and to formulate, justify and implement risk reduction measures and optimal financial strategies of risk retention and transfer. Special attention should be paid to the understanding of risk metrics such as the Loss Exceedance Curve (empiric and analytical) and the Expected Annual Loss in the context of conjoint and cascading hazards.

Risk Factors for Developing Work-Related Musculoskeletal Disorders during Dairy Farming.

PubMed

Taghavi, Sayed Mohammad; Mokarami, Hamidreza; Ahmadi, Omran; Stallones, Lorann; Abbaspour, Asghar; Marioryad, Hossein

2017-01-01

Dairy farming work involves frequent use of poor postures. These postures may increase the risk of developing musculoskeletal disorders among dairy workers. To assess postural load during performance of various tasks related to dairy farming. This cross-sectional study was conducted on a dairy farm in Iran. In order to assess postural load, tasks related to dairy farming were divided into 3 categories: feeding, milking, and manure disposal. Each task was then divided into its constituent work subdivisions (tasks). Finally, the working posture for each work subdivision was evaluated using Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA). Based on the results from the REBA score, the poorest risk scores (risk level 4) were associated with the following tasks: (1) manure disposal, (2) filling feed bags, and (3) pouring milk into a bucket. Other tasks such as filling corn containers, pouring corn into the milling machine, preparing the feed, pouring food into mangers, attaching the milking machine, and pouring milk from a bucket into a tank imposed high risk (risk level 3). The risk for the tasks of washing and disinfecting the udders were assessed as medium risks. The risk levels associated with most of the tasks on the studied farm were unacceptably high. Therefore, it is essential to implement ergonomic interventions to reduce risk levels of the tasks.

Development of a Korean Fracture Risk Score (KFRS) for Predicting Osteoporotic Fracture Risk: Analysis of Data from the Korean National Health Insurance Service

PubMed Central

Jang, Eun Jin; Park, ByeongJu; Kim, Tae-Young; Shin, Soon-Ae

2016-01-01

Background Asian-specific prediction models for estimating individual risk of osteoporotic fractures are rare. We developed a Korean fracture risk prediction model using clinical risk factors and assessed validity of the final model. Methods A total of 718,306 Korean men and women aged 50–90 years were followed for 7 years in a national system-based cohort study. In total, 50% of the subjects were assigned randomly to the development dataset and 50% were assigned to the validation dataset. Clinical risk factors for osteoporotic fracture were assessed at the biennial health check. Data on osteoporotic fractures during the follow-up period were identified by ICD-10 codes and the nationwide database of the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS). Results During the follow-up period, 19,840 osteoporotic fractures were reported (4,889 in men and 14,951 in women) in the development dataset. The assessment tool called the Korean Fracture Risk Score (KFRS) is comprised of a set of nine variables, including age, body mass index, recent fragility fracture, current smoking, high alcohol intake, lack of regular exercise, recent use of oral glucocorticoid, rheumatoid arthritis, and other causes of secondary osteoporosis. The KFRS predicted osteoporotic fractures over the 7 years. This score was validated using an independent dataset. A close relationship with overall fracture rate was observed when we compared the mean predicted scores after applying the KFRS with the observed risks after 7 years within each 10th of predicted risk. Conclusion We developed a Korean specific prediction model for osteoporotic fractures. The KFRS was able to predict risk of fracture in the primary population without bone mineral density testing and is therefore suitable for use in both clinical setting and self-assessment. The website is available at http://www.nhis.or.kr. PMID:27399597

Development of a Korean Fracture Risk Score (KFRS) for Predicting Osteoporotic Fracture Risk: Analysis of Data from the Korean National Health Insurance Service.

PubMed

Kim, Ha Young; Jang, Eun Jin; Park, ByeongJu; Kim, Tae-Young; Shin, Soon-Ae; Ha, Yong-Chan; Jang, Sunmee

2016-01-01

Asian-specific prediction models for estimating individual risk of osteoporotic fractures are rare. We developed a Korean fracture risk prediction model using clinical risk factors and assessed validity of the final model. A total of 718,306 Korean men and women aged 50-90 years were followed for 7 years in a national system-based cohort study. In total, 50% of the subjects were assigned randomly to the development dataset and 50% were assigned to the validation dataset. Clinical risk factors for osteoporotic fracture were assessed at the biennial health check. Data on osteoporotic fractures during the follow-up period were identified by ICD-10 codes and the nationwide database of the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS). During the follow-up period, 19,840 osteoporotic fractures were reported (4,889 in men and 14,951 in women) in the development dataset. The assessment tool called the Korean Fracture Risk Score (KFRS) is comprised of a set of nine variables, including age, body mass index, recent fragility fracture, current smoking, high alcohol intake, lack of regular exercise, recent use of oral glucocorticoid, rheumatoid arthritis, and other causes of secondary osteoporosis. The KFRS predicted osteoporotic fractures over the 7 years. This score was validated using an independent dataset. A close relationship with overall fracture rate was observed when we compared the mean predicted scores after applying the KFRS with the observed risks after 7 years within each 10th of predicted risk. We developed a Korean specific prediction model for osteoporotic fractures. The KFRS was able to predict risk of fracture in the primary population without bone mineral density testing and is therefore suitable for use in both clinical setting and self-assessment. The website is available at http://www.nhis.or.kr.

Comparison of concepts in easy-to-use methods for MSD risk assessment.

PubMed

Roman-Liu, Danuta

2014-05-01

This article presents a comparative analysis of easy-to-use methods for assessing musculoskeletal load and the risk for developing musculoskeletal disorders. In all such methods, assessment of load consists in defining input data, the procedure and the system of assessment. This article shows what assessment steps the methods have in common; it also shows how those methods differ in each step. In addition, the methods are grouped according to their characteristic features. The conclusion is that the concepts of assessing risk in different methods can be used to develop solutions leading to a comprehensive method appropriate for all work tasks and all parts of the body. However, studies are necessary to verify the accepted premises and to introduce some standardization that would make consolidation possible. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

The role of deposits in tsunami risk assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jaffe, B.

2008-01-01

An incomplete catalogue of tsunamis in the written record hinders tsunami risk assessment. Tsunami deposits, hard evidence of tsunami, can be used to extend the written record. The two primary factors in tsunami risk, tsunami frequency and magnitude, can be addressed through field and modeling studies of tsunami deposits. Recent research has increased the utility of tsunami deposits in tsunami risk assessment by improving the ability to identify tsunami deposits and developing models to determine tsunami magnitude from deposit characteristics. Copyright ASCE 2008.

Integrative Application of Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment to Environmental Impacts of Anthropogenic Pollutants at a Watershed Scale.

PubMed

Lin, Xiaodan; Yu, Shen; Ma, Hwongwen

2018-01-01

Intense human activities have led to increasing deterioration of the watershed environment via pollutant discharge, which threatens human health and ecosystem function. To meet a need of comprehensive environmental impact/risk assessment for sustainable watershed development, a biogeochemical process-based life cycle assessment and risk assessment (RA) integration for pollutants aided by geographic information system is proposed in this study. The integration is to frame a conceptual protocol of "watershed life cycle assessment (WLCA) for pollutants". The proposed WLCA protocol consists of (1) geographic and environmental characterization mapping; (2) life cycle inventory analysis; (3) integration of life-cycle impact assessment (LCIA) with RA via characterization factor of pollutant of interest; and (4) result analysis and interpretation. The WLCA protocol can visualize results of LCIA and RA spatially for the pollutants of interest, which might be useful for decision or policy makers for mitigating impacts of watershed development.

Model Development for Risk Assessment of Driving on Freeway under Rainy Weather Conditions

PubMed Central

Cai, Xiaonan; Wang, Chen; Chen, Shengdi; Lu, Jian

2016-01-01

Rainy weather conditions could result in significantly negative impacts on driving on freeways. However, due to lack of enough historical data and monitoring facilities, many regions are not able to establish reliable risk assessment models to identify such impacts. Given the situation, this paper provides an alternative solution where the procedure of risk assessment is developed based on drivers’ subjective questionnaire and its performance is validated by using actual crash data. First, an ordered logit model was developed, based on questionnaire data collected from Freeway G15 in China, to estimate the relationship between drivers’ perceived risk and factors, including vehicle type, rain intensity, traffic volume, and location. Then, weighted driving risk for different conditions was obtained by the model, and further divided into four levels of early warning (specified by colors) using a rank order cluster analysis. After that, a risk matrix was established to determine which warning color should be disseminated to drivers, given a specific condition. Finally, to validate the proposed procedure, actual crash data from Freeway G15 were compared with the safety prediction based on the risk matrix. The results show that the risk matrix obtained in the study is able to predict driving risk consistent with actual safety implications, under rainy weather conditions. PMID:26894434

Preliminary Development of an Attrition Risk Assessment Instrument for Secondary Agricultural Educators

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Greenhaw, Laura L.; Brashears, M. Todd; Burris, Scott; Meyers, Courtney; Morrison, Carley C.

2017-01-01

Secondary agricultural education has consistently faced a shortage of teachers for the past several decades. Because there are not enough newly qualified teachers certified annually to fill all the vacancies, attrition must be addressed. The purpose of this research was to develop and pilot test an attrition risk assessment instrument. Items were…

Development of an In Silico Metabolic Simulator and Searchable Metabolism Database for Chemical Risk Assessments

EPA Science Inventory

The US EPA is faced with long lists of chemicals that need to be assessed for hazard, and a gap in evaluating chemical risk is accounting for metabolic activation resulting in increased toxicity. The goals of this project are to develop a capability to predict metabolic maps of x...

A Longitudinal Study of Vocabulary Size and Composition in Low Risk Preterm Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pérez-Pereira, Miguel; Cruz, Raquel

2018-01-01

The vocabulary size and composition of one group of full-term and three groups of low risk preterm children with different gestational ages (GA) were longitudinally compared at 10, 22 and 30 months of age. Expressive vocabulary development was assessed through the CDI. Cognitive development was also assessed at 22 months (Batelle Developmental…

PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessments) Participation versus Validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeMott, Diana; Banke, Richard

2013-01-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) are performed for projects or programs where the consequences of failure are highly undesirable. PRAs primarily address the level of risk those projects or programs posed during operations. PRAs are often developed after the design has been completed. Design and operational details used to develop models include approved and accepted design information regarding equipment, components, systems and failure data. This methodology basically validates the risk parameters of the project or system design. For high risk or high dollar projects, using PRA methodologies during the design process provides new opportunities to influence the design early in the project life cycle to identify, eliminate or mitigate potential risks. Identifying risk drivers before the design has been set allows the design engineers to understand the inherent risk of their current design and consider potential risk mitigation changes. This can become an iterative process where the PRA model can be used to determine if the mitigation technique is effective in reducing risk. This can result in more efficient and cost effective design changes. PRA methodology can be used to assess the risk of design alternatives and can demonstrate how major design changes or program modifications impact the overall program or project risk. PRA has been used for the last two decades to validate risk predictions and acceptability. Providing risk information which can positively influence final system and equipment design the PRA tool can also participate in design development, providing a safe and cost effective product.

The evaluation of daily living activities, pressure sores and risk factors.

PubMed

Aydın, Gökçen; Mucuk, Salime

2015-01-01

This study was conducted to assess daily living activities, pressure sores and risk factors. This was a descriptive study. The study was conducted at a rehabilitation center with 188 individuals participating in the study. Data were collected with a questionnaire form, Activities of Daily Living Scale (ADLS), Instrumental Activities of Daily Living Scale (IADLS) and Braden Risk Assessment Scale (BRAS). Among the participants, 48.9% were dependent according to activities of daily living and 71.8% were dependent on instrumental activities of daily living. It was noted that 4.8% had pressure sores and 38.8% were at high risk. A strong and positive correlation was found among ADLS, IADLS, and BRAS scores (p < .001). Participants who had a low body mass index, had lived at the rehabilitation center for a long time, and were fed on regime 1 or 2, had a higher risk of developing pressure sores (p < .001). Individuals who were dependent according to ADLS and IADLS were at increased risk for the development of pressure sores. Individuals who are treated at rehabilitation centers should be periodically assessed in terms of risk. Pressure sore development can be prevented with appropriate nursing interventions. To reduce the risk of developing pressure sores, nurses should describe the individual's degree of dependency according to ADLS and IADLS and initiate preventive nursing care. © 2014 Association of Rehabilitation Nurses.

Study on the Application of the Kent Index Method on the Risk Assessment of Disastrous Accidents in Subway Engineering

PubMed Central

Lu, Hao; Wang, Mingyang; Yang, Baohuai; Rong, Xiaoli

2013-01-01

With the development of subway engineering, according to uncertain factors and serious accidents involved in the construction of subways, implementing risk assessment is necessary and may bring a number of benefits for construction safety. The Kent index method extensively used in pipeline construction is improved to make risk assessment much more practical for the risk assessment of disastrous accidents in subway engineering. In the improved method, the indexes are divided into four categories, namely, basic, design, construction, and consequence indexes. In this study, a risk assessment model containing four kinds of indexes is provided. Three kinds of risk occurrence modes are listed. The probability index model which considers the relativity of the indexes is established according to the risk occurrence modes. The model provides the risk assessment process through the fault tree method and has been applied in the risk assessment of Nanjing subway's river-crossing tunnel construction. Based on the assessment results, the builders were informed of what risks should be noticed and what they should do to avoid the risks. The need for further research is discussed. Overall, this method may provide a tool for the builders, and improve the safety of the construction. PMID:23710136

Therapeutic risk management of the suicidal patient: augmenting clinical suicide risk assessment with structured instruments.

PubMed

Homaifar, Beeta; Matarazzo, Bridget; Wortzel, Hal S

2013-09-01

This column is the second in a series presenting a model for therapeutic risk management of the suicidal patient. As discussed in the first part of the series, the model involves several elements including augmenting clinical risk assessment with structured instruments, stratifying risk in terms of both severity and temporality, and developing and documenting a safety plan. This column explores in more detail how to augment clinical risk assessment with structured instruments. Unstructured clinical interviews have the potential to miss important aspects of suicide risk assessment. By augmenting the free-form clinical interview with structured instruments that demonstrate reliability and validity, a more nuanced and multifaceted approach to suicide risk assessment is achieved. Incorporating structured instruments into practice also serves a medicolegal function, since these instruments may become a living part of the medical record, establishing baseline levels of suicidal thoughts and behaviors and facilitating future clinical determinations regarding safety needs. We describe several instruments used in a multidisciplinary suicide consultation service, each of which has demonstrated relevance to suicide risk assessment and screening, ease of administration, and strong psychometric properties. In addition, we emphasize the importance of viewing suicide risk assessment as an ongoing process rather than as a singular event. Finally, we discuss special considerations in the evolving practice of risk assessment.

Assessing and managing breast cancer risk: clinicians' current practice and future needs.

PubMed

Collins, Ian M; Steel, Emma; Mann, G Bruce; Emery, Jon D; Bickerstaffe, Adrian; Trainer, Alison; Butow, Phyllis; Pirotta, Marie; Antoniou, Antonis C; Cuzick, Jack; Hopper, John; Phillips, Kelly-Anne; Keogh, Louise A

2014-10-01

Decision support tools for the assessment and management of breast cancer risk may improve uptake of prevention strategies. End-user input in the design of such tools is critical to increase clinical use. Before developing such a computerized tool, we examined clinicians' practice and future needs. Twelve breast surgeons, 12 primary care physicians and 5 practice nurses participated in 4 focus groups. These were recorded, coded, and analyzed to identify key themes. Participants identified difficulties assessing risk, including a lack of available tools to standardize practice. Most expressed confidence identifying women at potentially high risk, but not moderate risk. Participants felt a tool could especially reassure young women at average risk. Desirable features included: evidence-based, accessible (e.g. web-based), and displaying absolute (not relative) risks in multiple formats. The potential to create anxiety was a concern. Development of future tools should address these issues to optimize translation of knowledge into clinical practice. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Frameworks and tools for risk assessment of manufactured nanomaterials.

PubMed

Hristozov, Danail; Gottardo, Stefania; Semenzin, Elena; Oomen, Agnes; Bos, Peter; Peijnenburg, Willie; van Tongeren, Martie; Nowack, Bernd; Hunt, Neil; Brunelli, Andrea; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; Tran, Lang; Marcomini, Antonio

2016-10-01

Commercialization of nanotechnologies entails a regulatory requirement for understanding their environmental, health and safety (EHS) risks. Today we face challenges to assess these risks, which emerge from uncertainties around the interactions of manufactured nanomaterials (MNs) with humans and the environment. In order to reduce these uncertainties, it is necessary to generate sound scientific data on hazard and exposure by means of relevant frameworks and tools. The development of such approaches to facilitate the risk assessment (RA) of MNs has become a dynamic area of research. The aim of this paper was to review and critically analyse these approaches against a set of relevant criteria. The analysis concluded that none of the reviewed frameworks were able to fulfill all evaluation criteria. Many of the existing modelling tools are designed to provide screening-level assessments rather than to support regulatory RA and risk management. Nevertheless, there is a tendency towards developing more quantitative, higher-tier models, capable of incorporating uncertainty into their analyses. There is also a trend towards developing validated experimental protocols for material identification and hazard testing, reproducible across laboratories. These tools could enable a shift from a costly case-by-case RA of MNs towards a targeted, flexible and efficient process, based on grouping and read-across strategies and compliant with the 3R (Replacement, Reduction, Refinement) principles. In order to facilitate this process, it is important to transform the current efforts on developing databases and computational models into creating an integrated data and tools infrastructure to support the risk assessment and management of MNs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrating pixel- and polygon-based approaches to wildfire risk assessment: Application to a high-value watershed on the Pike and San Isabel National Forests, Colorado, USA

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day; Joe H. Scott

2015-01-01

We develop a novel risk assessment approach that integrates complementary, yet distinct, spatial modeling approaches currently used in wildfire risk assessment. Motivation for this work stems largely from limitations of existing stochastic wildfire simulation systems, which can generate pixel-based outputs of fire behavior as well as polygon-based outputs of simulated...

Technologies for Assessing Behavioral and Cognitive Markers of Suicide Risk

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-10-01

AWARD NUMBER: W81XWH-15-1-0632 TITLE: Technologies for Assessing Behavioral and Cognitive Markers of Suicide Risk PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Brian...CONTRACT NUMBER Technologies for Assessing Behavioral and Cognitive Markers of Suicide Risk 5b. GRANT NUMBER W81XWH-15-1-0632 5c. PROGRAM...Public Release; Distribution Unlimited 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT The primary aim of the proposed project is to develop cognitive and

Integrating expert opinion with modelling for quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment in the Eastern Italian Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Lixia; van Westen, Cees J.; Hussin, Haydar; Ciurean, Roxana L.; Turkington, Thea; Chavarro-Rincon, Diana; Shrestha, Dhruba P.

2016-11-01

Extreme rainfall events are the main triggering causes for hydro-meteorological hazards in mountainous areas, where development is often constrained by the limited space suitable for construction. In these areas, hazard and risk assessments are fundamental for risk mitigation, especially for preventive planning, risk communication and emergency preparedness. Multi-hazard risk assessment in mountainous areas at local and regional scales remain a major challenge because of lack of data related to past events and causal factors, and the interactions between different types of hazards. The lack of data leads to a high level of uncertainty in the application of quantitative methods for hazard and risk assessment. Therefore, a systematic approach is required to combine these quantitative methods with expert-based assumptions and decisions. In this study, a quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment was carried out in the Fella River valley, prone to debris flows and flood in the north-eastern Italian Alps. The main steps include data collection and development of inventory maps, definition of hazard scenarios, hazard assessment in terms of temporal and spatial probability calculation and intensity modelling, elements-at-risk mapping, estimation of asset values and the number of people, physical vulnerability assessment, the generation of risk curves and annual risk calculation. To compare the risk for each type of hazard, risk curves were generated for debris flows, river floods and flash floods. Uncertainties were expressed as minimum, average and maximum values of temporal and spatial probability, replacement costs of assets, population numbers, and physical vulnerability. These result in minimum, average and maximum risk curves. To validate this approach, a back analysis was conducted using the extreme hydro-meteorological event that occurred in August 2003 in the Fella River valley. The results show a good performance when compared to the historical damage reports.

Psychometric validation of the Chinese version of the Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool for older Chinese inpatients.

PubMed

Zhang, Junhong; Wang, Min; Liu, Yu

2016-10-01

To culturally adapt and evaluate the reliability and validity of the Chinese version of the Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool among older inpatients in the mainland of China. Patient falls are an important safety consideration within hospitals among older inpatients. Nurses need specific risk assessment tools for older inpatients to reliably identify at-risk populations and guide interventions that highlight fixable risk factors for falls and consequent injuries. In China, a few tools have been developed to measure fall risk. However, they lack the solid psychometric development necessary to establish their validity and reliability, and they are not widely used for elderly inpatients. A cross-sectional study. A convenient sampling was used to recruit 201 older inpatients from two tertiary-level hospitals in Beijing and Xiamen, China. The Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool was translated using forward and backward translation procedures and was administered to these 201 older inpatients. Reliability of the tool was calculated by inter-rater reliability and Cronbach's alpha. Validity was analysed through content validity index and construct validity. The Inter-rater reliability of Chinese version of Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool was 97·14% agreement with Cohen's Kappa of 0·903. Cronbach's α was 0·703. Content of Validity Index was 0·833. Two factors represented intrinsic and extrinsic risk factors were explored that together explained 58·89% of the variance. This study provided evidence that Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool is an acceptable, valid and reliable tool to identify older inpatients at risk of falls and falls with injury. Further psychometric testing on criterion validity and evaluation of its advanced utility in geriatric clinical settings are warranted. The Chinese version of Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool may be useful for health care personnel to identify older Chinese inpatients at risk of falls and falls with injury. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Risk Assessment at the Cosmetic Product Manufacturer by Expert Judgment Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vtorushina, A. N.; Larionova, E. V.; Mezenceva, I. L.; Nikonova, E. D.

2017-05-01

A case study was performed in a cosmetic product manufacturer. We have identified the main risk factors of occupational accidents and their causes. Risk of accidents is assessed by the expert judgment method. Event tree for the most probable accident is built and recommendations on improvement of occupational health and safety protection system at the cosmetic product manufacturer are developed. The results of this paper can be used to develop actions to improve the occupational safety and health system in the chemical industry.

Demonstration of the Military Ecological Risk Assessment Framework (MERAF): Apache Longbow - Hell Missile Test at Yuma Proving Ground

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Efroymson, R.A.

2002-05-09

This ecological risk assessment for a testing program at Yuma Proving Ground, Arizona, is a demonstration of the Military Ecological Risk Assessment Framework (MERAF; Suter et al. 2001). The demonstration is intended to illustrate how risk assessment guidance concerning-generic military training and testing activities and guidance concerning a specific type of activity (e.g., low-altitude aircraft overflights) may be implemented at a military installation. MERAF was developed with funding from the Strategic Research and Development Program (SERDP) of the Department of Defense. Novel aspects of MERAF include: (1) the assessment of risks from physical stressors using an ecological risk assessment framework,more » (2) the consideration of contingent or indirect effects of stressors (e.g., population-level effects that are derived from habitat or hydrological changes), (3) the integration of risks associated with different component activities or stressors, (4) the emphasis on quantitative risk estimates and estimates of uncertainty, and (5) the modularity of design, permitting components of the framework to be used in various military risk assessments that include similar activities. The particular subject of this report is the assessment of ecological risks associated with a testing program at Cibola Range of Yuma Proving Ground, Arizona. The program involves an Apache Longbow helicopter firing Hellfire missiles at moving targets, i.e., M60-A1 tanks. Thus, the three component activities of the Apache-Hellfire test were: (1) helicopter overflight, (2) missile firing, and (3) tracked vehicle movement. The demonstration was limited, to two ecological endpoint entities (i.e., potentially susceptible and valued populations or communities): woody desert wash communities and mule deer populations. The core assessment area is composed of about 126 km{sup 2} between the Chocolate and Middle Mountains. The core time of the program is a three-week period, including fourteen days of activity in August of 2000.« less

Designing trials for pressure ulcer risk assessment research: methodological challenges.

PubMed

Balzer, K; Köpke, S; Lühmann, D; Haastert, B; Kottner, J; Meyer, G

2013-08-01

For decades various pressure ulcer risk assessment scales (PURAS) have been developed and implemented into nursing practice despite uncertainty whether use of these tools helps to prevent pressure ulcers. According to current methodological standards, randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are required to conclusively determine the clinical efficacy and safety of this risk assessment strategy. In these trials, PURAS-aided risk assessment has to be compared to nurses' clinical judgment alone in terms of its impact on pressure ulcer incidence and adverse outcomes. However, RCTs evaluating diagnostic procedures are prone to specific risks of bias and threats to the statistical power which may challenge their validity and feasibility. This discussion paper critically reflects on the rigour and feasibility of experimental research needed to substantiate the clinical efficacy of PURAS-aided risk assessment. Based on reflections of the methodological literature, a critical appraisal of available trials on this subject and an analysis of a protocol developed for a methodologically robust cluster-RCT, this paper arrives at the following conclusions: First, available trials do not provide reliable estimates of the impact of PURAS-aided risk assessment on pressure ulcer incidence compared to nurses' clinical judgement alone due to serious risks of bias and insufficient sample size. Second, it seems infeasible to assess this impact by means of rigorous experimental studies since sample size would become extremely high if likely threats to validity and power are properly taken into account. Third, means of evidence linkages seem to currently be the most promising approaches for evaluating the clinical efficacy and safety of PURAS-aided risk assessment. With this kind of secondary research, the downstream effect of use of PURAS on pressure ulcer incidence could be modelled by combining best available evidence for single parts of this pathway. However, to yield reliable modelling results, more robust experimental research evaluating specific parts of the pressure ulcer risk assessment-prevention pathway is needed. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Support of personalized medicine through risk-stratified treatment recommendations - an environmental scan of clinical practice guidelines

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Risk-stratified treatment recommendations facilitate treatment decision-making that balances patient-specific risks and preferences. It is unclear if and how such recommendations are developed in clinical practice guidelines (CPGs). Our aim was to assess if and how CPGs develop risk-stratified treatment recommendations for the prevention or treatment of common chronic diseases. Methods We searched the United States National Guideline Clearinghouse for US, Canadian and National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (United Kingdom) CPGs for heart disease, stroke, cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and diabetes that make risk-stratified treatment recommendations. We included only those CPGs that made risk-stratified treatment recommendations based on risk assessment tools. Two reviewers independently identified CPGs and extracted information on recommended risk assessment tools; type of evidence about treatment benefits and harms; methods for linking risk estimates to treatment evidence and for developing treatment thresholds; and consideration of patient preferences. Results We identified 20 CPGs that made risk-stratified treatment recommendations out of 133 CPGs that made any type of treatment recommendations for the chronic diseases considered in this study. Of the included 20 CPGs, 16 (80%) used evidence about treatment benefits from randomized controlled trials, meta-analyses or other guidelines, and the source of evidence was unclear in the remaining four (20%) CPGs. Nine CPGs (45%) used evidence on harms from randomized controlled trials or observational studies, while 11 CPGs (55%) did not clearly refer to harms. Nine CPGs (45%) explained how risk prediction and evidence about treatments effects were linked (for example, applying estimates of relative risk reductions to absolute risks), but only one CPG (5%) assessed benefit and harm quantitatively and three CPGs (15%) explicitly reported consideration of patient preferences. Conclusions Only a small proportion of CPGs for chronic diseases make risk-stratified treatment recommendations with a focus on heart disease and stroke prevention, diabetes and breast cancer. For most CPGs it is unclear how risk-stratified treatment recommendations were developed. As a consequence, it is uncertain if CPGs support patients and physicians in finding an acceptable benefit- harm balance that reflects both profile-specific outcome risks and preferences. PMID:23302096

Progress of environmental management and risk assessment of industrial chemicals in China.

PubMed

Wang, Hong; Yan, Zhen-Guang; Li, Hong; Yang, Ni-Yun; Leung, Kenneth M Y; Wang, Yi-Zhe; Yu, Ruo-Zhen; Zhang, Lai; Wang, Wan-Hua; Jiao, Cong-Ying; Liu, Zheng-Tao

2012-06-01

With China's rapid economic growth, chemical-related environmental issues have become increasingly prominent, and the environmental management of chemicals has garnered increased attention from the government. This review focuses on the current situation and the application of risk assessment in China's environmental management of industrial chemicals. The related challenges and research needs of the country are also discussed. The Chinese government promulgated regulations for the import and export of toxic chemicals in 1994. Regulations for new chemical substances came into force in 2003, and were revised in 2010 based on the concept of risk management. In order to support the implementation of new regulations, Guidance for Risk Assessment of Chemicals is under development in an attempt to provide the concepts and techniques of risk assessment. With increasing concern and financial support from Chinese government, China is embarking on the fast track of research and development in environmental management of industrial chemicals. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Developing ecosystem services-based assessment endpoints for determining ecological risks to estuarine environments

EPA Science Inventory

Current U.S. EPA ecological risk assessment (ERA) guidance defines an assessment endpoint (AE) as an explicit expression of the environmental value that is to be protected, and recommends that AEs are selected based on ecological relevance, susceptibility to known or potential st...

76 FR 10896 - Science Advisory Board Staff Office; Request for Nominations; CASAC Mercury Review Panel

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-02-28

... the emissions of hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) released from coal-burning electric generating units...-based standard for reducing HAP emissions. EPA is developing a draft risk assessment for mercury, entitled Technical Support Document: National- Scale Mercury Risk Assessment. This draft assessment...

Assessing Requirements Volatility and Risk Using Bayesian Networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Russell, Michael S.

2010-01-01

There are many factors that affect the level of requirements volatility a system experiences over its lifecycle and the risk that volatility imparts. Improper requirements generation, undocumented user expectations, conflicting design decisions, and anticipated / unanticipated world states are representative of these volatility factors. Combined, these volatility factors can increase programmatic risk and adversely affect successful system development. This paper proposes that a Bayesian Network can be used to support reasonable judgments concerning the most likely sources and types of requirements volatility a developing system will experience prior to starting development and by doing so it is possible to predict the level of requirements volatility the system will experience over its lifecycle. This assessment offers valuable insight to the system's developers, particularly by providing a starting point for risk mitigation planning and execution.

Risk assessment and management approaches on mental health units.

PubMed

Woods, P

2013-11-01

This exploratory and descriptive study took place in one Canadian province. The study aimed to: (1) to identify and describe the nature and extent of current risk assessment and management approaches used in the adult inpatient mental health and forensic units; and (2) to identify good practice and shortfalls in the nature and extent of the approaches currently utilized. Data were collected from 48 participants through nine focus groups. Participants reported that they used a clinical approach to risk assessment. They had also not considered risk assessment and management as a proactive structured process. Education and training was also limited and skills were developed over time through practice. Five keys issues are discussed as important: reliance on clinical judgement alone is not the best choice to make; the need to consider risk as a whole concept; risk management being more reactive than proactive; education and training; and client involvement in risk assessment. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Fuzzy-probabilistic model for risk assessment of radioactive material railway transportation.

PubMed

Avramenko, M; Bolyatko, V; Kosterev, V

2005-01-01

Transportation of radioactive materials is obviously accompanied by a certain risk. A model for risk assessment of emergency situations and terrorist attacks may be useful for choosing possible routes and for comparing the various defence strategies. In particular, risk assessment is crucial for safe transportation of excess weapons-grade plutonium arising from the removal of plutonium from military employment. A fuzzy-probabilistic model for risk assessment of railway transportation has been developed taking into account the different natures of risk-affecting parameters (probabilistic and not probabilistic but fuzzy). Fuzzy set theory methods as well as standard methods of probability theory have been used for quantitative risk assessment. Information-preserving transformations are applied to realise the correct aggregation of probabilistic and fuzzy parameters. Estimations have also been made of the inhalation doses resulting from possible accidents during plutonium transportation. The obtained data show the scale of possible consequences that may arise from plutonium transportation accidents.

Partial meniscectomy is associated with increased risk of incident radiographic osteoarthritis and worsening cartilage damage in the following year.

PubMed

Roemer, Frank W; Kwoh, C Kent; Hannon, Michael J; Hunter, David J; Eckstein, Felix; Grago, Jason; Boudreau, Robert M; Englund, Martin; Guermazi, Ali

2017-01-01

To assess whether partial meniscectomy is associated with increased risk of radiographic osteoarthritis (ROA) and worsening cartilage damage in the following year. We studied 355 knees from the Osteoarthritis Initiative that developed ROA (Kellgren-Lawrence grade ≥ 2), which were matched with control knees. The MR images were assessed using the semi-quantitative MOAKS system. Conditional logistic regression was applied to estimate risk of incident ROA. Logistic regression was used to assess the risk of worsening cartilage damage in knees with partial meniscectomy that developed ROA. In the group with incident ROA, 4.4 % underwent partial meniscectomy during the year prior to the case-defining visit, compared with none of the knees that did not develop ROA. All (n = 31) knees that had partial meniscectomy and 58.9 % (n = 165) of the knees with prevalent meniscal damage developed ROA (OR = 2.51, 95 % CI [1.73, 3.64]). In knees that developed ROA, partial meniscectomy was associated with an increased risk of worsening cartilage damage (OR = 4.51, 95 % CI [1.53, 13.33]). The probability of having had partial meniscectomy was higher in knees that developed ROA. When looking only at knees that developed ROA, partial meniscectomy was associated with greater risk of worsening cartilage damage. • Partial meniscectomy is a controversial treatment option for degenerative meniscal tears. • Partial meniscectomy is strongly associated with incident osteoarthritis within 1 year. • Partial meniscectomy is associated with increased risk of worsening cartilage damage.

EVALUATION OF VADOSE ZONE AND SORUCE MODULES FOR MULTI-MEDIA, MULTI-PATHWAY, AND MULTI-RECEPTOR RISK ASSESSMENT USING LARGE-SOIL-COLUMN EXPERIMENTAL DATA

EPA Science Inventory

The United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is developing a comprehensive environmental exposure and risk analysis software system for agency-wide application using the methodology of a Multi-media, Multi-pathway, Multi-receptor Risk Assessment (3MRA) model. This sof...

12 CFR Appendix B to Part 364 - Interagency Guidelines Establishing Information Security Standards

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... Relationships Risk Management Principles,” Nov. 1, 2001; FDIC FIL 68-99, Risk Assessment Tools and Practices for... Customer Information A. Information Security Program B. Objectives III. Development and Implementation of Customer Information Security Program A. Involve the Board of Directors B. Assess Risk C. Manage and...

Assessing Violence Risk: A Review and Clinical Recommendations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haggard-Grann, Ulrika

2007-01-01

Guidance to identify and manage clients with a perceived high risk for future violence is of great importance for mental health professionals. In the past decade, several structured instruments have been developed to assess risk of future violence. Awareness of the limits and abilities of such instruments is required. This article reviews the most…

EVALUATION OF VADOSE ZONE AND SOURCE MODELS FOR MULTI-MEDIA, MULTI-PATHWAY, MULTI-RECEPTOR RISK ASSESSMENT USING LARGE SOIL COLUMN EXPERIMENT DATA

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is developing a comprehensive environmental exposure and risk analysis software system for agency-wide application using the methodology of a Multi-media, Multi-pathway, Multi-receptor Risk Assessment (3MRA) model. This software sys...

A wildfire risk assessment framework for land and resource management

Treesearch

Joe H. Scott; Matthew P. Thompson; David E. Calkin

2013-01-01

Wildfires can result in significant, long-lasting impacts to ecological, social, and economic systems. It is necessary, therefore, to identify and understand the risks posed by wildland fire, and to develop cost-effective mitigation strategies accordingly. This report presents a general framework with which to assess wildfire risk and explore mitigation options, and...

Assessing reliability of short and tick box forms of the ANU-ADRI: Convenient alternatives of a self-report Alzheimer's disease risk assessment.

PubMed

Kim, Sarang; Cherbuin, Nicolas; Anstey, Kaarin J

2016-06-01

To assess the reliability of short versions of the Australian National University Alzheimer's Disease Risk Index (ANU-ADRI). A short form of the ANU-ADRI (ANU-ADRI-SF) was developed by assessing risk and protective factors with single questions where possible and with short forms of sub-questionnaires where available. The tick box form of the ANU-ADRI (ANU-ADRI-TB) was developed with unique questions for each risk and protective factor for Alzheimer's disease. The short versions were evaluated in an independent community sample of 504 participants with a mean age of 45.01 (SD = 14.85, range = 18-81). The short versions demonstrated high reliabilities when compared with the ANU-ADRI. However, the proportion of misclassification was high for some risk factors and particularly for the ANU-ADRI-TB. The ANU-ADRI-SF may be considered if less reliable questions from the ANU-ADRI-SF can be replaced with more reliable questions from the ANU-ADRI for risk/protective factors with high misclassification.

[Psychosocial Risk Evaluation in the Workplace: Expert-based Development of a Checklist for Occupational Physicians].

PubMed

Weigl, M; Müller, A; Angerer, P; Petru, R

2016-03-01

The implementation of psychosocial risk assessment at the workplace often fails in practice. One reason is the lack of competence of those who are in charge of the process. We present a checklist for the effective implementation of psychosocial risk assessment at workplace. This tool shall support occupational physicians in the preparation, planning and implementation of a psychosocial risks assessment process. Based on a stepwise development and validation process, specific steps and factors for the successful implementation were identified qualitatively with 15 occupational physicians and experts. This was conducted in a 2-stage Delphi study. In the following, the identified steps and factors were transferred into a checklist. Subsequently, the checklist was evaluated in a focus group of occupational physicians (user evaluation). Thereafter, the contents were subjected to an expert evaluation. Our checklist for the effective implementation of the process of psychosocial risk management in the workplace aims to strengthen the competence of occupational physicians, especially in the implementation of risk assessments in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Differences in risk factors for suicide attempts among 9th and 11th grade youth: a longitudinal perspective.

PubMed

Fried, Lise E; Williams, Sandra; Cabral, Howard; Hacker, Karen

2013-04-01

The purpose of the study is to assess the relationship between timing of adolescent development and risk factors for suicide. Nationally representative data from the Add Health survey were used. The relationship of sociodemographic characteristics, known risk factors, and physical developmental timing and cognitive developmental style to suicide attempt was assessed. Depression was a risk factor for suicide attempts in both 9th and 11th grade. Other risk factors differed. Use of illegal drugs, homosexual orientation, using public assistance, and physical development were the important risk factors for ninth graders. For 11th graders, sexual abuse, being in counseling, and being of "other" race or ethnicity (mainly Asian or Native American) were risk factors. The cognitive development variable of using a systematic problem-solving method was protective for 11th graders. Recognizing that risk factors for adolescent suicide attempts change over time and with developmental timing of puberty is an important factor for suicide prevention strategies.

Fire risk in San Diego County, California: A weighted Bayesian model approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kolden, Crystal A.; Weigel, Timothy J.

2007-01-01

Fire risk models are widely utilized to mitigate wildfire hazards, but models are often based on expert opinions of less understood fire-ignition and spread processes. In this study, we used an empirically derived weights-of-evidence model to assess what factors produce fire ignitions east of San Diego, California. We created and validated a dynamic model of fire-ignition risk based on land characteristics and existing fire-ignition history data, and predicted ignition risk for a future urbanization scenario. We then combined our empirical ignition-risk model with a fuzzy fire behavior-risk model developed by wildfire experts to create a hybrid model of overall fire risk. We found that roads influence fire ignitions and that future growth will increase risk in new rural development areas. We conclude that empirically derived risk models and hybrid models offer an alternative method to assess current and future fire risk based on management actions.

Assessing pesticide risks to threatened and endangered species using population models: Findings and recommendations from a CropLife America Science Forum.

PubMed

Forbes, V E; Brain, R; Edwards, D; Galic, N; Hall, T; Honegger, J; Meyer, C; Moore, D R J; Nacci, D; Pastorok, R; Preuss, T G; Railsback, S F; Salice, C; Sibly, R M; Tenhumberg, B; Thorbek, P; Wang, M

2015-07-01

This brief communication reports on the main findings and recommendations from the 2014 Science Forum organized by CropLife America. The aim of the Forum was to gain a better understanding of the current status of population models and how they could be used in ecological risk assessments for threatened and endangered species potentially exposed to pesticides in the United States. The Forum panelists' recommendations are intended to assist the relevant government agencies with implementation of population modeling in future endangered species risk assessments for pesticides. The Forum included keynote presentations that provided an overview of current practices, highlighted the findings of a recent National Academy of Sciences report and its implications, reviewed the main categories of existing population models and the types of risk expressions that can be produced as model outputs, and provided examples of how population models are currently being used in different legislative contexts. The panel concluded that models developed for listed species assessments should provide quantitative risk estimates, incorporate realistic variability in environmental and demographic factors, integrate complex patterns of exposure and effects, and use baseline conditions that include present factors that have caused the species to be listed (e.g., habitat loss, invasive species) or have resulted in positive management action. Furthermore, the panel advocates for the formation of a multipartite advisory committee to provide best available knowledge and guidance related to model implementation and use, to address such needs as more systematic collection, digitization, and dissemination of data for listed species; consideration of the newest developments in good modeling practice; comprehensive review of existing population models and their applicability for listed species assessments; and development of case studies using a few well-tested models for particular species to demonstrate proof of concept. To advance our common goals, the panel recommends the following as important areas for further research and development: quantitative analysis of the causes of species listings to guide model development; systematic assessment of the relative role of toxicity versus other factors in driving pesticide risk; additional study of how interactions between density dependence and pesticides influence risk; and development of pragmatic approaches to assessing indirect effects of pesticides on listed species. © 2015 SETAC.

Determination of a risk management primer at petroleum-contaminated sites: developing new human health risk assessment strategy.

PubMed

Park, In-Sun; Park, Jae-Woo

2011-01-30

Total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH) is an important environmental contaminant that is toxic to human and environmental receptors. However, human health risk assessment for petroleum, oil, and lubricant (POL)-contaminated sites is especially challenging because TPH is not a single compound, but rather a mixture of numerous substances. To address this concern, this study recommends a new human health risk assessment strategy for POL-contaminated sites. The strategy is based on a newly modified TPH fractionation method and includes an improved analytical protocol. The proposed TPH fractionation method is composed of ten fractions (e.g., aliphatic and aromatic EC8-10, EC10-12, EC12-16, EC16-22 and EC22-40). Physicochemical properties and toxicity values of each fraction were newly defined in this study. The stepwise ultrasonication-based analytical process was established to measure TPH fractions. Analytical results were compared with those from the TPH Criteria Working Group (TPHCWG) Direct Method. Better analytical efficiencies in TPH, aliphatic, and aromatic fractions were achieved when contaminated soil samples were analyzed with the new analytical protocol. Finally, a human health risk assessment was performed based on the developed tiered risk assessment framework. Results showed that a detailed quantitative risk assessment should be conducted to determine scientifically and economically appropriate cleanup target levels, although the phase II process is useful for determining the potency of human health risks posed by POL-contamination. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Juvenile Delinquency and Teenage Pregnancy: A Comparison of Ecological Risk Profiles among Midwestern White and Black Female Juvenile Offenders

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Khurana, Atika; Cooksey, Elizabeth C.; Gavazzi, Stephen M.

2011-01-01

The authors examined ecological risk factors associated with teen pregnancy with a sample of 1,190 court-involved female juvenile offenders between 11 and 18 years of age. Data were obtained from five Midwestern juvenile county courts using a recently developed youth risk assessment instrument called the global risk assessment device (GRAD). In…

Molecular profiling--a tool for addressing emerging gaps in the comparative risk assessment of GMOs.

PubMed

Heinemann, Jack A; Kurenbach, Brigitta; Quist, David

2011-10-01

Assessing the risks of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) is required by both international agreement and domestic legislation. Many view the use of the "omics" tools for profiling classes of molecules as useful in risk assessment, but no consensus has formed on the need or value of these techniques for assessing the risks of all GMOs. In this and many other cases, experts support case-by-case use of molecular profiling techniques for risk assessment. We review the latest research on the applicability and usefulness of molecular profiling techniques for GMO risk assessment. As more and more kinds of GMOs and traits are developed, broader use of molecular profiling in a risk assessment may be required to supplement the comparative approach to risk assessment. The literature-based discussions on the use of profiling appear to have settled on two findings: 1. profiling techniques are reliable and relevant, at least no less so than other techniques used in risk assessment; and 2. although not required routinely, regulators should be aware of when they are needed. The dismissal of routine molecular profiling may be confusing to regulators who then lack guidance on when molecular profiling might be worthwhile. Molecular profiling is an important way to increase confidence in risk assessments if the profiles are properly designed to address relevant risks and are applied at the correct stage of the assessment. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment.

PubMed

Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace

2015-01-01

Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology. © The Author(s) 2015.

Evolving PBPK applications in regulatory risk assessment: current situation and future goals

EPA Science Inventory

The presentation includes current applications of PBPK modeling in regulatory risk assessment and discussions on conflicts between assuring consistency with experimental data in current situation and the desire for animal-free model development.

USE OF GENOMIC DATA IN RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Use of Genomic Data in Risk Assessment
John C. Rockett
Reproductive Toxicology Division, National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, USA<...

[Contaminants from food packaging : New developments in risk assessment].

PubMed

Pfaff, Karla; Wölfle, Detlef; Luch, Andreas

2017-07-01

Diverse materials intended for contact with food are important sources of food contamination. Harmonised European regulations including whitelists (so-called "positive lists") of substances along with migration limits and restrictions exist for plastics and regenerated cellulose films only. The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) is responsible for the risk assessment of substances prior to their authorization and inclusion into the positive lists. In 2016 the EFSA issued an opinion on recent developments in the risk assessment of substances migrating into food for public consideration. Also migration related to non-intentionally added substances (NIASs), e. g. impurities, degradations products or oligomers, may be relevant for risk assessment. For substances migrating in quantities up to 50 ppb the requested data are restricted to genotoxicity testing based on a tiered approach for toxicological data requirements. In the case of higher migration levels (>50 ppb) experimental animal studies are also requested. Along with an evaluation of the available information, toxicological data on structurally similar substances may be used for the assessment if sufficiently justified with the aim to reduce animal studies as far as possible. For the risk assessment of NIASs it is possible to apply in silico methods in the absence of experimental toxicological data. Additionally, new technologies such as the use of nanomaterials, active and intelligent packaging and recycled plastics are challenging tasks in EFSA's risk assessment in accordance with the regulations by the European Commission.

Empirical assessment of debris flow risk on a regional scale in Yunnan province, southwestern China.

PubMed

Liu, Xilin; Yue, Zhong Qi; Tham, Lesliw George; Lee, Chack Fan

2002-08-01

Adopting the definition suggested by the United Nations, a risk model for regional debris flow assessment is presented. Risk is defined as the product of hazard and vulnerability, both of which are necessary for evaluation. A Multiple-Factor Composite Assessment Model is developed for quantifying regional debris flow hazard by taking into account eight variables that contribute to debris flow magnitude and its frequency of occurrence. Vulnerability is a measure of the potential total losses. On a regional scale, it can be measured by the fixed asset, gross domestic product, land resources, population density, as well as the age, education, and wealth of the inhabitants. A nonlinear power-function assessment model that accounts for these indexes is developed. As a case study, the model is applied to compute the hazard, vulnerability and risk for each prefecture of the Yunnan province in southwestern China.

The role of environmental accidental risk assessment in the process of granting development consent.

PubMed

Kontic, Branko; Gerbec, Marko

2009-11-01

Environmental impact assessment (EIA) is a procedure that must be followed for certain types of development before they are granted development consent. The procedure requires the developer to compile an environmental impact report (EIR) describing the likely significant effects of the project on the environment. A regulatory requirement in Slovenia is that an accidental risk assessment for a new installation should be a part of an EIR. The article shows how risk assessment (RA) related to accidental release of methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) or a polyvalent alcohol mixture from a new planned unit of a chemical factory in the Alpine region of Slovenia was performed in the framework of an EIA for the purpose of obtaining a construction permit. Two accidental scenarios were considered: (a) a spill of 20 m(3) of MDI or polyvalent alcohol mixture into the river Soca (the river runs close to the chemical factory) and (b) a fire in the warehouse storing the raw material, where emission of toxic gases HCN, NO(x), and CO is expected during combustion of MDI. One of the most important results of this case is the agreement among the developer, the competent authority, and a consultant in the field of EIA and RA to positively conclude the licensing process despite the absence of formal (regulatory) limit values for risk. It has been approved that transparent, reasonably uncertain, and semi-quantitative environmental risk assessment is an inevitable component of an EIA, and an essential factor in informed, licensing-related decision making.

Regional risk assessment approaches to land planning for industrial polluted areas in China: the Hulunbeier region case study.

PubMed

Li, Daiqing; Zhang, Chen; Pizzol, Lisa; Critto, Andrea; Zhang, Haibo; Lv, Shihai; Marcomini, Antonio

2014-04-01

The rapid industrial development and urbanization processes that occurred in China over the past 30years has increased dramatically the consumption of natural resources and raw materials, thus exacerbating the human pressure on environmental ecosystems. In result, large scale environmental pollution of soil, natural waters and urban air were recorded. The development of effective industrial planning to support regional sustainable economy development has become an issue of serious concern for local authorities which need to select safe sites for new industrial settlements (i.e. industrial plants) according to assessment approaches considering cumulative impacts, synergistic pollution effects and risks of accidental releases. In order to support decision makers in the development of efficient and effective regional land-use plans encompassing the identification of suitable areas for new industrial settlements and areas in need of intervention measures, this study provides a spatial regional risk assessment methodology which integrates relative risk assessment (RRA) and socio-economic assessment (SEA) and makes use of spatial analysis (GIS) methodologies and multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques. The proposed methodology was applied to the Chinese region of Hulunbeier which is located in eastern Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, adjacent to the Republic of Mongolia. The application results demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed methodology in the identification of the most hazardous and risky industrial settlements, the most vulnerable regional receptors and the regional districts which resulted to be the most relevant for intervention measures since they are characterized by high regional risk and excellent socio-economic development conditions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cognitive mapping tools: review and risk management needs.

PubMed

Wood, Matthew D; Bostrom, Ann; Bridges, Todd; Linkov, Igor

2012-08-01

Risk managers are increasingly interested in incorporating stakeholder beliefs and other human factors into the planning process. Effective risk assessment and management requires understanding perceptions and beliefs of involved stakeholders, and how these beliefs give rise to actions that influence risk management decisions. Formal analyses of risk manager and stakeholder cognitions represent an important first step. Techniques for diagramming stakeholder mental models provide one tool for risk managers to better understand stakeholder beliefs and perceptions concerning risk, and to leverage this new understanding in developing risk management strategies. This article reviews three methodologies for assessing and diagramming stakeholder mental models--decision-analysis-based mental modeling, concept mapping, and semantic web analysis--and assesses them with regard to their ability to address risk manager needs. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Ethnic and cultural determinants influence risk assessment for hepatitis C acquisition.

PubMed

Dev, Anouk; Sundararajan, Vijaya; Sievert, William

2004-07-01

In the developed world hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is predominantly associated with sharing contaminated equipment between injecting drug users (IDU). In developing countries inadequately sterilized medical equipment, transmission of infected blood and cultural practices have been implicated. Accurate risk factor assessment is essential for education targeted at risk reduction in culturally diverse populations. Ninety Australian-born Caucasians and 72 South-east Asian (SEA) HCV patients attending a Melbourne hospital liver clinic completed a questionnaire which assessed risk factor profile, perceived risk factors, knowledge of risk factors and methods to minimize transmission. Medical records were audited to identify doctor assessment of risk factors. Risk factors in Caucasians were IDU, body piercing and tattooing (89%, 47% and 32%, respectively). Risk factors in SEA patients were injection therapy, dental therapy and surgery (89%, 70% and 38%, respectively). Most Caucasian patients (94%) correctly identified their mode of acquisition compared with 33% of SEA patients (P < 0.0001). Accurate risk factor documentation in medical records was more common in Caucasians (96 vs 32%; P < 0.0001). The majority of patients identified blood-to-blood and sexual/vertical transmission as important modes of acquisition. However, 33% of SEA patients believed transmission occurred through food, water and poor hygiene and 80% did not identify therapeutic injection or traditional medical practices as risk factors. Education provided to SEA patients did not address less well established routes of transmission. Ethnicity influences perception and knowledge of risk factors. Improved assessment of risk factors in high-risk ethnic groups is needed. Education should be culturally appropriate and address the concerns of all populations with HCV. Copyright 2004 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd

Constellation Program (CxP) Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) Project Integrated Landing System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, John D.; Yuchnovicz, Daniel E.; Eisenman, David J.; Peer, Scott G.; Fasanella, Edward L.; Lawrence, Charles

2009-01-01

Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) Chief Engineer requested a risk comparison of the Integrated Landing System design developed by NASA and the design developed by Contractor- referred to as the LM 604 baseline. Based on the results of this risk comparison, the CEV Chief engineer requested that the NESC evaluate identified risks and develop strategies for their reduction or mitigation. The assessment progressed in two phases. A brief Phase I analysis was performed by the Water versus Land-Landing Team to compare the CEV Integrated Landing System proposed by the Contractor against the NASA TS-LRS001 baseline with respect to risk. A phase II effort examined the areas of critical importance to the overall landing risk, evaluating risk to the crew and to the CEV Crew Module (CM) during a nominal land-landing. The findings of the assessment are contained in this report.

Comparison of ergonomic risk assessment outputs from rapid entire body assessment and quick exposure check in an engine oil company.

PubMed

Motamedzade, Majid; Ashuri, Mohammad Reza; Golmohammadi, Rostam; Mahjub, Hossein

2011-06-13

During the last decades, to assess the risk factors of work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs), enormous observational methods have been developed. Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA) and Quick Exposure Check (QEC) are two general methods in this field. This study aimed to compare ergonomic risk assessment outputs from QEC and REBA in terms of agreement in distribution of postural loading scores based on analysis of working postures. This cross-sectional study was conducted in an engine oil company in which 40 jobs were studied. All jobs were observed by a trained occupational health practitioner. Job information was collected to ensure the completion of ergonomic risk assessment tools, including QEC, and REBA. The result revealed that there was a significant correlation between final scores (r=0.731) and the action levels (r =0.893) of two applied methods. Comparison between the action levels and final scores of two methods showed that there was no significant difference among working departments. Most of studied postures acquired low and moderate risk level in QEC assessment (low risk=20%, moderate risk=50% and High risk=30%) and in REBA assessment (low risk=15%, moderate risk=60% and high risk=25%). There is a significant correlation between two methods. They have a strong correlation in identifying risky jobs, and determining the potential risk for incidence of WMSDs. Therefore, there is possibility for researchers to apply interchangeably both methods, for postural risk assessment in appropriate working environments.

Use of new scientific developments in regulatory risk assessments: challenges and opportunities.

PubMed

Tarazona, Jose V

2013-07-01

Since the 1990s, science based ecological risk assessments constitute an essential tool for supporting decision making in the regulatory context. Using the European REACH Regulation as example, this article presents the challenges and opportunities for new scientific developments within the area of chemical control and environmental protection. These challenges can be sorted out in 3 main related topics (sets). In the short term, the challenges are directly associated with the regulatory requirements, required for facilitating a scientifically sound implementation of the different obligations for industry and authorities. It is important to mention that although the actual tools are different due to the regulatory requirements, the basic needs are still the same as those addressed in the early 1990s: understanding the ecological relevance of the predicted effects, including the uncertainty, and facilitating the link with the socio-economic assessment. The second set of challenges covers the opportunities for getting an added value from the regulatory efforts. The information compiled through REACH registration and notification processes is analyzed as source for new integrative developments for assessing the combined chemical risk at the regional level. Finally, the article discusses the challenge of inverting the process and developing risk assessment methods focusing on the receptor, the individual or ecosystem, instead of on the stressor or source. These approaches were limited in the past due to the lack of information, but the identification and dissemination of standard information, including uses, manufacturing sites, physical-chemical, environmental, ecotoxicological, and toxicological properties as well as operational conditions and risk management measures for thousands of chemicals, combined by the knowledge gathered through large scale monitoring programs and spatial information systems is generating new opportunities. The challenge is liking predictions and measured data in an integral "-omic type" approach, considering collectively data from different sources and offering a complete assessment of the chemical risk of individuals and ecosystems, with new conceptual approaches that could be defined as "risk-omics based" paradigms and models. Copyright © 2013 SETAC.

RAMPART (TM): Risk Assessment Method-Property Analysis and Ranking Tool v.4.0

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carson, Susan D.; Hunter, Regina L.; Link, Madison D.

RAMPART{trademark}, Risk Assessment Method-property Analysis and Ranking Tool, is a new type of computer software package for the assessment of risk to buildings. RAMPART{trademark} has been developed by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) for the U.S. General Services Administration (GSA). RAMPART {trademark} has been designed and developed to be a risk-based decision support tool that requires no risk analysis expertise on the part of the user. The RAMPART{trademark} user interface elicits information from the user about the building. The RAMPART{trademark} expert system is a set of rules that embodies GSA corporate knowledge and SNL's risk assessment experience. The RAMPART{trademark} database containsmore » both data entered by the user during a building analysis session and large sets of natural hazard and crime data. RAMPART{trademark} algorithms use these data to assess the risk associated with a given building in the face of certain hazards. Risks arising from five natural hazards (earthquake, hurricane, winter storm, tornado and flood); crime (inside and outside the building); fire and terrorism are calculated. These hazards may cause losses of various kinds. RAMPART{trademark} considers death, injury, loss of mission, loss of property, loss of contents, loss of building use, and first-responder loss. The results of each analysis are presented graphically on the screen and in a written report.« less

Using cognitive pre-testing methods in the development of a new evidenced-based pressure ulcer risk assessment instrument.

PubMed

Coleman, S; Nixon, J; Keen, J; Muir, D; Wilson, L; McGinnis, E; Stubbs, N; Dealey, C; Nelson, E A

2016-11-16

Variation in development methods of Pressure Ulcer Risk Assessment Instruments has led to inconsistent inclusion of risk factors and concerns about content validity. A new evidenced-based Risk Assessment Instrument, the Pressure Ulcer Risk Primary Or Secondary Evaluation Tool - PURPOSE-T was developed as part of a National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) funded Pressure Ulcer Research Programme (PURPOSE: RP-PG-0407-10056). This paper reports the pre-test phase to assess and improve PURPOSE-T acceptability, usability and confirm content validity. A descriptive study incorporating cognitive pre-testing methods and integration of service user views was undertaken over 3 cycles comprising PURPOSE-T training, a focus group and one-to-one think-aloud interviews. Clinical nurses from 2 acute and 2 community NHS Trusts, were grouped according to job role. Focus group participants used 3 vignettes to complete PURPOSE-T assessments and then participated in the focus group. Think-aloud participants were interviewed during their completion of PURPOSE-T. After each pre-test cycle analysis was undertaken and adjustment/improvements made to PURPOSE-T in an iterative process. This incorporated the use of descriptive statistics for data completeness and decision rule compliance and directed content analysis for interview and focus group data. Data were collected April 2012-June 2012. Thirty-four nurses participated in 3 pre-test cycles. Data from 3 focus groups, 12 think-aloud interviews incorporating 101 PURPOSE-T assessments led to changes to improve instrument content and design, flow and format, decision support and item-specific wording. Acceptability and usability were demonstrated by improved data completion and appropriate risk pathway allocation. The pre-test also confirmed content validity with clinical nurses. The pre-test was an important step in the development of the preliminary PURPOSE-T and the methods used may have wider instrument development application. PURPOSE-T proposes a new approach to pressure ulcer risk assessment, incorporating a screening stage, the inclusion of skin status to distinguish between those who require primary prevention and those who require secondary prevention/treatment and the use of colour to support pathway allocation and decision making. Further clinical evaluation is planned to assess the reliability and validity of PURPOSE-T and it's impact on care processes and patient outcomes.

Consideration of Collision "Consequence" in Satellite Conjunction Assessment and Risk Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hejduk, M.; Laporte, F.; Moury, M.; Newman, L.; Shepperd, R.

2017-01-01

Classic risk management theory requires the assessment of both likelihood and consequence of deleterious events. Satellite conjunction risk assessment has produced a highly-developed theory for assessing collision likelihood but holds a completely static solution for collision consequence, treating all potential collisions as essentially equally worrisome. This may be true for the survival of the protected asset, but the amount of debris produced by the potential collision, and therefore the degree to which the orbital corridor may be compromised, can vary greatly among satellite conjunctions. This study leverages present work on satellite collision modeling to develop a method by which it can be estimated, to a particular confidence level, whether a particular collision is likely to produce a relatively large or relatively small amount of resultant debris and how this datum might alter conjunction remediation decisions. The more general question of orbital corridor protection is also addressed, and a preliminary framework presented by which both collision likelihood and consequence can be jointly considered in the risk assessment process.

DEVELOPMENT AND REVIEW OF MONITORING METHODS AND RISK ASSESSMENT MODELS USED TO DETERMINE THE EFFECTS OF BIOSOLIDS LAND APPLICATION ON HUMAN HEALTH AND THE ENVIRONMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Development and Review of monitoring methods and risk assessment models for biosolids land application impacts on air and land

Ronald F Herrmann (NRMRL), Mike Broder (NCEA), and Mike Ware (NERL)

Science Questions .

MYP Science Question: What additional model...

Assessing nanoparticle risk poses prodigious challenges.

PubMed

MacPhail, Robert C; Grulke, Eric A; Yokel, Robert A

2013-01-01

Risk assessment is used both formally and informally to estimate the likelihood of an adverse event occurring, for example, as a consequence of exposure to a hazardous chemical, drug, or other agent. Formal risk assessments in government regulatory agencies have a long history of practice. The precision with which risk can be estimated is inevitably constrained, however, by uncertainties arising from the lack of pertinent data. Developing accurate risk assessments for nanoparticles and nanoparticle-containing products may present further challenges because of the unique properties of the particles, uncertainties about their composition and the populations exposed to them, and how these may change throughout the particle's life cycle. This review introduces the evolving practice of risk assessment followed by some of the uncertainties that need to be addressed to improve our understanding of nanoparticle risks. Given the clarion call for life-cycle assessments of nanoparticles, an unprecedented degree of national and international coordination between scientific organizations, regulatory agencies, and stakeholders will be required to achieve this goal. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A method for evaluating competency in assessment and management of suicide risk.

PubMed

Hung, Erick K; Binder, Renée L; Fordwood, Samantha R; Hall, Stephen E; Cramer, Robert J; McNiel, Dale E

2012-01-01

Although health professionals increasingly are expected to be able to assess and manage patients' risk for suicide, few methods are available to evaluate this competency. This report describes development of a competency-assessment instrument for suicide risk-assessment (CAI-S), and evaluates its use in an objective structured clinical examination (OSCE). The authors developed the CAI-S on the basis of the literature on suicide risk-assessment and management, and consultation with faculty focus groups from three sites in a large academic psychiatry department. The CAI-S structures faculty ratings regarding interviewing and data collection, case formulation and presentation, treatment-planning, and documentation. To evaluate the CAI-S, 31 faculty members used it to rate the performance of 31 learners (26 psychiatric residents and 5 clinical psychology interns) who participated in an OSCE. After interviewing a standardized patient, learners presented their risk-assessment findings and treatment plans. Faculty used the CAI-S to structure feedback to the learners. In a subsidiary study of interrater reliability, six faculty members rated video-recorded suicide risk-assessments. The CAI-S showed good internal consistency, reliability, and interrater reliability. Concurrent validity was supported by the finding that CAI-S ratings were higher for senior learners than junior learners, and were higher for learners with more clinical experience with suicidal patients than learners with less clinical experience. Faculty and learners rated the method as helpful for structuring feedback and supervision. The findings support the usefulness of the CAI-S for evaluating competency in suicide risk-assessment and management.

Indo-Canadian Collaboration for Suicide Prevention: Training Needs Assessment for Healthcare Professionals in India.

PubMed

Shah, Ravi; Eynan, Rahel; Srivastava, Amresh; Reiss, Leanna; Sathyanarayana Rao, T S; Parkar, Shubhangi; Dutt, Lakshman; Kadam, Kranti; Links, Paul S

2016-07-01

The main purpose of the study was to conduct a comprehensive needs assessment of primary healthcare professionals in order to develop a training program aimed at enhancing competencies in suicide risk assessment and management. A total of 144 primary healthcare professionals (physicians = 46; primary care workers = 98) completed the needs assessment questionnaire. The majority of healthcare professionals rated their level of comfort and competence in assessing, treating, and referring suicidal patients as medium or high. However, their knowledge about suicide, risk factors for suicide, asking about suicidal behaviour, and helping a suicidal patient was rated low or medium. Overall, the scarcity of qualified healthcare professionals and the existing gaps in core competencies for suicide risk assessment and management was identified. Development of innovative and effective competencies-based suicide specific training for primary care providers in India is urgently required.

What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, Philip; Jongman, Brenden; Salamon, Peter; Simpson, Alanna; Winsemius, Hessel

2015-04-01

In recent years, several global scale flood risk models have become available. Within the scientific community these have been, and are being, used to assess and map the current levels of risk faced by countries and societies. Increasingly, they are also being used to assess how that level of risk may change in the future, under scenarios of climate change and/or socioeconomic development. More and more, these 'quick and not so dirty' methods are also being used in practice, for a large range of uses and applications, and by an increasing range of practitioners and decision makers. For example, assessments can be used by: International Financing Institutes for prioritising investments in the most promising natural disaster risk reduction measures and strategies; intra-national institutes in the monitoring of progress on risk reduction activities; the (re-)insurance industry in assessing their risk portfolios and potential changes in those portfolios under climate change; by multinational companies in assessing risks to their regional investments and supply chains; and by international aid organisations for improved resource planning. However, global scale flood risk models clearly have their limits, and therefore both modellers and users need to critically address the question 'What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?'. This contribution is intended to start a dialogue between model developers, users, and decision makers to better answer this question. We will provide a number of examples of how the GLOFRIS global flood risk model has recently been used in several practical applications, and share both the positive and negative insights gained through these experiences. We wish to discuss similar experiences with other groups of modelers, users, and decision-makers, in order to better understand and harness the potential of this new generation of models, understand the differences in model approaches followed and their impacts on applicability, and develop clarity on their limits and potential misuses.

Advancing human health risk assessment: Integrating recent advisory committee recommendations

PubMed Central

Becker, Richard A.; Haber, Lynne T.; Pottenger, Lynn H.; Bredfeldt, Tiffany; Fenner-Crisp, Penelope A.

2013-01-01

Over the last dozen years, many national and international expert groups have considered specific improvements to risk assessment. Many of their stated recommendations are mutually supportive, but others appear conflicting, at least in an initial assessment. This review identifies areas of consensus and difference and recommends a practical, biology-centric course forward, which includes: (1) incorporating a clear problem formulation at the outset of the assessment with a level of complexity that is appropriate for informing the relevant risk management decision; (2) using toxicokinetics and toxicodynamic information to develop Chemical Specific Adjustment Factors (CSAF); (3) using mode of action (MOA) information and an understanding of the relevant biology as the key, central organizing principle for the risk assessment; (4) integrating MOA information into dose–response assessments using existing guidelines for non-cancer and cancer assessments; (5) using a tiered, iterative approach developed by the World Health Organization/International Programme on Chemical Safety (WHO/IPCS) as a scientifically robust, fit-for-purpose approach for risk assessment of combined exposures (chemical mixtures); and (6) applying all of this knowledge to enable interpretation of human biomonitoring data in a risk context. While scientifically based defaults will remain important and useful when data on CSAF or MOA to refine an assessment are absent or insufficient, assessments should always strive to use these data. The use of available 21st century knowledge of biological processes, clinical findings, chemical interactions, and dose–response at the molecular, cellular, organ and organism levels will minimize the need for extrapolation and reliance on default approaches. PMID:23844697

Assessment of seismic risk in Tashkent, Uzbekistan and Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erdik, M.; Rashidov, T.; Safak, E.; Turdukulov, A.

2005-01-01

The impact of earthquakes in urban centers prone to disastrous earthquakes necessitates the analysis of associated risk for rational formulation of contingency plans and mitigation strategies. In urban centers the seismic risk is best quantified and portrayed through the preparation of 'Earthquake damage and Loss Scenarios'. The components of such scenarios are the assessment of the hazard, inventories and the vulnerabilities of elements at risk. For the development of earthquake risk scenario in Tashkent-Uzbekistan and Bishkek-Kyrgyzstan an approach based on spectral displacements is utilized. This paper will present the important features of a comprehensive study, highlight the methodology, discuss the results and provide insights to the future developments. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Redefining risk research priorities for nanomaterials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grieger, Khara D.; Baun, Anders; Owen, Richard

2010-02-01

Chemical-based risk assessment underpins the current approach to responsible development of nanomaterials (NM). It is now recognised, however, that this process may take decades, leaving decision makers with little support in the near term. Despite this, current and near future research efforts are largely directed at establishing (eco)toxicological and exposure data for NM, and comparatively little research has been undertaken on tools or approaches that may facilitate near-term decisions, some of which we briefly outline in this analysis. We propose a reprioritisation of NM risk research efforts to redress this imbalance, including the development of more adaptive risk governance frameworks, alternative/complementary tools to risk assessment, and health and environment surveillance.

Cumulative risk assessment for combined health effects from chemical and nonchemical stressors.

PubMed

Sexton, Ken; Linder, Stephen H

2011-12-01

Cumulative risk assessment is a science policy tool for organizing and analyzing information to examine, characterize, and possibly quantify combined threats from multiple environmental stressors. We briefly survey the state of the art regarding cumulative risk assessment, emphasizing challenges and complexities of moving beyond the current focus on chemical mixtures to incorporate nonchemical stressors, such as poverty and discrimination, into the assessment paradigm. Theoretical frameworks for integrating nonchemical stressors into cumulative risk assessments are discussed, the impact of geospatial issues on interpreting results of statistical analyses is described, and four assessment methods are used to illustrate the diversity of current approaches. Prospects for future progress depend on adequate research support as well as development and verification of appropriate analytic frameworks.

Cumulative Risk Assessment for Combined Health Effects From Chemical and Nonchemical Stressors

PubMed Central

Linder, Stephen H.

2011-01-01

Cumulative risk assessment is a science policy tool for organizing and analyzing information to examine, characterize, and possibly quantify combined threats from multiple environmental stressors. We briefly survey the state of the art regarding cumulative risk assessment, emphasizing challenges and complexities of moving beyond the current focus on chemical mixtures to incorporate nonchemical stressors, such as poverty and discrimination, into the assessment paradigm. Theoretical frameworks for integrating nonchemical stressors into cumulative risk assessments are discussed, the impact of geospatial issues on interpreting results of statistical analyses is described, and four assessment methods are used to illustrate the diversity of current approaches. Prospects for future progress depend on adequate research support as well as development and verification of appropriate analytic frameworks. PMID:21551386

The short- to medium-term predictive accuracy of static and dynamic risk assessment measures in a secure forensic hospital.

PubMed

Chu, Chi Meng; Thomas, Stuart D M; Ogloff, James R P; Daffern, Michael

2013-04-01

Although violence risk assessment knowledge and practice has advanced over the past few decades, it remains practically difficult to decide which measures clinicians should use to assess and make decisions about the violence potential of individuals on an ongoing basis, particularly in the short to medium term. Within this context, this study sought to compare the predictive accuracy of dynamic risk assessment measures for violence with static risk assessment measures over the short term (up to 1 month) and medium term (up to 6 months) in a forensic psychiatric inpatient setting. Results showed that dynamic measures were generally more accurate than static measures for short- to medium-term predictions of inpatient aggression. These findings highlight the necessity of using risk assessment measures that are sensitive to important clinical risk state variables to improve the short- to medium-term prediction of aggression within the forensic inpatient setting. Such knowledge can assist with the development of more accurate and efficient risk assessment procedures, including the selection of appropriate risk assessment instruments to manage and prevent the violence of offenders with mental illnesses during inpatient treatment.

NASA Langley Systems Analysis & Concepts Directorate Technology Assessment/Portfolio Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cavanaugh, Stephen; Chytka, Trina; Arcara, Phil; Jones, Sharon; Stanley, Doug; Wilhite, Alan W.

2006-01-01

Systems analysis develops and documents candidate mission and architectures, associated system concepts, enabling capabilities and investment strategies to achieve NASA s strategic objectives. The technology assessment process connects the mission and architectures to the investment strategies. In order to successfully implement a technology assessment, there is a need to collect, manipulate, analyze, document, and disseminate technology-related information. Information must be collected and organized on the wide variety of potentially applicable technologies, including: previous research results, key technical parameters and characteristics, technology readiness levels, relationships to other technologies, costs, and potential barriers and risks. This information must be manipulated to facilitate planning and documentation. An assessment is included of the programmatic and technical risks associated with each technology task as well as potential risk mitigation plans. Risks are assessed and tracked in terms of likelihood of the risk occurring and consequences of the risk if it does occur. The risk assessments take into account cost, schedule, and technical risk dimensions. Assessment data must be simplified for presentation to decision makers. The Systems Analysis and Concepts Directorate (SACD) at NASA Langley Research Center has a wealth of experience in performing Technology Assessment and Portfolio Analysis as this has been a business line since 1978.

Suicide risk assessment practices: a national survey of generalist drug and alcohol residential rehabilitation services.

PubMed

Ross, Joanne; Darke, Shane; Kelly, Erin; Hetherington, Kate

2012-09-01

Clients of drug and alcohol treatment services represent a high-risk group for attempted and completed suicide. The current study sought to examine suicide risk assessment practices in Australian generalist residential rehabilitation services. Semistructured interviews were conducted with managers of residential rehabilitation services and with volunteers from staff responsible for the case management/treatment of clients. Ninety per cent of services participated. In total, 64 managers and 142 staff were interviewed. One-third of services had no documented policy for the assessment and management of suicide risk, and one-quarter of staff had never received formal training in risk assessment. In more than one-third of agencies staff were not expected to use a structured suicide risk assessment tool when assessing a client's acute risk. To varying degrees agencies were gathering information about psychiatric comorbidity, but this information did not appear to be routinely integrated into the client's suicide risk assessment. The development of clearly documented polices, standardised assessment tools and the provision of annual training for all staff would help to address some of the gaps identified in current practice. © 2012 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

Offshore safety case approach and formal safety assessment of ships.

PubMed

Wang, J

2002-01-01

Tragic marine and offshore accidents have caused serious consequences including loss of lives, loss of property, and damage of the environment. A proactive, risk-based "goal setting" regime is introduced to the marine and offshore industries to increase the level of safety. To maximize marine and offshore safety, risks need to be modeled and safety-based decisions need to be made in a logical and confident way. Risk modeling and decision-making tools need to be developed and applied in a practical environment. This paper describes both the offshore safety case approach and formal safety assessment of ships in detail with particular reference to the design aspects. The current practices and the latest development in safety assessment in both the marine and offshore industries are described. The relationship between the offshore safety case approach and formal ship safety assessment is described and discussed. Three examples are used to demonstrate both the offshore safety case approach and formal ship safety assessment. The study of risk criteria in marine and offshore safety assessment is carried out. The recommendations on further work required are given. This paper gives safety engineers in the marine and offshore industries an overview of the offshore safety case approach and formal ship safety assessment. The significance of moving toward a risk-based "goal setting" regime is given.

Development, reliability, and validity testing of Toddler NutriSTEP: a nutrition risk screening questionnaire for children 18-35 months of age.

PubMed

Randall Simpson, Janis; Gumbley, Jillian; Whyte, Kylie; Lac, Jane; Morra, Crystal; Rysdale, Lee; Turfryer, Mary; McGibbon, Kim; Beyers, Joanne; Keller, Heather

2015-09-01

Nutrition is vital for optimal growth and development of young children. Nutrition risk screening can facilitate early intervention when followed by nutritional assessment and treatment. NutriSTEP (Nutrition Screening Tool for Every Preschooler) is a valid and reliable nutrition risk screening questionnaire for preschoolers (aged 3-5 years). A need was identified for a similar questionnaire for toddlers (aged 18-35 months). The purpose was to develop a reliable and valid Toddler NutriSTEP. Toddler NutriSTEP was developed in 4 phases. Content and face validity were determined with a literature review, parent focus groups (n = 6; 48 participants), and experts (n = 13) (phase A). A draft questionnaire was refined with key intercept interviews of 107 parents/caregivers (phase B). Test-retest reliability (phase C), based on intra-class correlations (ICC), Kappa (κ) statistics, and Wilcoxon tests was assessed with 133 parents/caregivers. Criterion validity (phase D) was assessed using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves by comparing scores on the Toddler NutriSTEP to a comprehensive nutritional assessment of 200 toddlers with a registered dietitian (RD). The Toddler NutriSTEP was reliable between 2 administrations (ICC = 0.951, F = 20.53, p < 0.001); most questions had moderate (κ ≥ 0.6) or excellent (κ ≥ 0.8) agreement. Scores on the RD nutrition risk rating and the Toddler NutriSTEP were correlated (r = 0.67, p < 0.000). The area under the ROC curve for moderate and high RD risk ratings were 84.6% and 82.7%, respectively. Cut-points of ≥21 (sensitivity 86%; specificity 61%) (moderate risk) and ≥26 (sensitivity 95%; specificity 63%) (high risk) were determined. The Toddler NutriSTEP questionnaire is both reliable and valid for screening for nutritional risk in toddlers.

Ecological Risk Assessment with MCDM of Some Invasive Alien Plants in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Guowen; Chen, Weiguang; Lin, Meizhen; Zheng, Yanling; Guo, Peiguo; Zheng, Yisheng

Alien plant invasion is an urgent global issue that threatens the sustainable development of the ecosystem health. The study of its ecological risk assessment (ERA) could help us to prevent and reduce the invasion risk more effectively. Based on the theory of ERA and methods of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) of multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM), and through the analyses of the characteristics and processes of alien plant invasion, this paper discusses the methodologies of ERA of alien plant invasion. The assessment procedure consisted of risk source analysis, receptor analysis, exposure and hazard assessment, integral assessment, and countermeasure of risk management. The indicator system of risk source assessment as well as the indices and formulas applied to measure the ecological loss and risk were established, and the method for comprehensively assessing the ecological risk of alien plant invasion was worked out. The result of ecological risk analysis to 9 representative invasive alien plants in China shows that the ecological risk of Erigeron annuus, Ageratum conyzoides, Alternanthera philoxeroides and Mikania midrantha is high (grade1-2), that of Oxalis corymbosa and Wedelia chinensis comes next (grade3), while Mirabilis jalapa, Pilea microphylla and Calendula officinalis of the last (grade 4). Risk strategies are put forward on this basis.

Use of Influenza Risk Assessment Tool for Prepandemic Preparedness

PubMed Central

Trock, Susan C.

2018-01-01

In 2010, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention began to develop an Influenza Risk Assessment Tool (IRAT) to methodically capture and assess information relating to influenza A viruses not currently circulating among humans. The IRAT uses a multiattribute, additive model to generate a summary risk score for each virus. Although the IRAT is not intended to predict the next pandemic influenza A virus, it has provided input into prepandemic preparedness decisions. PMID:29460739

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Post, G.B.; Baratta, M.; Wolfson, S.

The New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection`s responsibilities related to health-based risk assessment are described, including its research projects and its development of health based compound specific standards and guidance levels. The resources used by the agency to support health risk assessment work are outlined.

Web-enabling Ecological Risk Assessment for Accessibility and Transparency

EPA Science Inventory

Ecological risk methods and tools are necessarily diverse to account for different combinations of receptors, exposure processes, effects estimation, and degree of conservatism/realism necessary to support chemical-based assessments. These tools have been continuously developed s...

IMPROVING THE TMDL PROCESS USING WATERSHED RISK ASSESSMENT PRINCIPLES

EPA Science Inventory

Watershed ecological risk assessment (WERA) evaluates potential causal relationships between multiple sources and stressors and impacts on valued ecosystem components. This has many similarities tothe placed-based analuses that are undertaken to develop total maximum daily loads...

Human Health Risk Assessment Strategic Research Action Plan 2012-2016

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This document outlines the strategic plan for EPA’s Human Health Risk Assessment research efforts, and how they support and are integrated into the overall research portfolio of the Agency’s Office of Research and Development.

Post-exposure prophylaxis against Ebola virus disease with experimental antiviral agents: a case-series of health-care workers.

PubMed

Jacobs, Michael; Aarons, Emma; Bhagani, Sanjay; Buchanan, Ruaridh; Cropley, Ian; Hopkins, Susan; Lester, Rebecca; Martin, Daniel; Marshall, Neal; Mepham, Stephen; Warren, Simon; Rodger, Alison

2015-11-01

Although a few international health-care workers who have assisted in the current Ebola outbreak in west Africa have been medically evacuated for treatment of Ebola virus disease, more commonly they were evacuated after potential accidental exposure to Ebola virus. An urgent need exists for a consensus about the risk assessment of Ebola virus transmission after accidental exposure, and to investigate the use of post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP). Experimental vaccines have occasionally been used for Ebola PEP, but newly developed experimental antiviral agents have potential advantages. Here, we describe a new method for risk assessment and management of health-care workers potentially exposed to Ebola virus and report the use of experimental antiviral therapies for Ebola PEP in people. We devised a risk assessment and management algorithm for health-care workers potentially exposed to Ebola virus and applied this to eight consecutive individuals who were medically evacuated to the UK from west Africa between January, and March, 2015. PEP with antiviral agents was given to health-care workers assessed to have had substantial risk exposures to Ebola virus. Participants were followed up for 42 days after potential exposure. Four of eight health-care workers were classified as having had low risk exposures and managed by watchful waiting in the community. None of these health-care workers developed Ebola virus disease. The other four health-care workers had intermediate or maximum risk exposures and were given PEP with antiviral agents. PEP was well tolerated with no serious adverse effects. None of these four health-care workers, including two with maximum risk exposures from penetrating injuries with freshly used hollow-bore needles, developed Ebola virus disease. Standardised risk assessment should be adopted and consensus guidelines developed to systematically study the efficacy and safety of PEP with experimental agents. New experimental antiviral treatments are a viable option for PEP against Ebola. Royal Free London NHS Foundation Trust. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Examining alternative fuel management strategies and the relative contribution of National Forest System land to wildfire risk to adjacent homes - A pilot assessment on the Sierra National Forest, California, USA

Treesearch

Joe H. Scott; Matthew P. Thompson; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day

2016-01-01

Determining the degree of risk that wildfires pose to homes, where across the landscape the risk originates, and who can best mitigate risk are integral elements of effective co-management of wildfire risk. Developing assessments and tools to help provide this information is a high priority for federal land management agencies such as the US Forest Service (...

Effects of organizational complexity and resources on construction site risk.

PubMed

Forteza, Francisco J; Carretero-Gómez, Jose M; Sesé, Albert

2017-09-01

Our research is aimed at studying the relationship between risk level and organizational complexity and resources on constructions sites. Our general hypothesis is that site complexity increases risk, whereas more resources of the structure decrease risk. A Structural Equation Model (SEM) approach was adopted to validate our theoretical model. To develop our study, 957 building sites in Spain were visited and assessed in 2003-2009. All needed data were obtained using a specific tool developed by the authors to assess site risk, structure and resources (Construction Sites Risk Assessment Tool, or CONSRAT). This tool operationalizes the variables to fit our model, specifically, via a site risk index (SRI) and 10 organizational variables. Our random sample is composed largely of small building sites with general high levels of risk, moderate complexity, and low resources on site. The model obtained adequate fit, and results showed empirical evidence that the factors of complexity and resources can be considered predictors of site risk level. Consequently, these results can help companies, managers of construction and regulators to identify which organizational aspects should be improved to prevent risks on sites and consequently accidents. Copyright © 2017 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Efforts to standardize wildlife toxicity values remain unrealized.

PubMed

Mayfield, David B; Fairbrother, Anne

2013-01-01

Wildlife toxicity reference values (TRVs) are routinely used during screening level and baseline ecological risk assessments (ERAs). Risk assessment professionals often adopt TRVs from published sources to expedite risk analyses. The US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) developed ecological soil screening levels (Eco-SSLs) to provide a source of TRVs that would improve consistency among risk assessments. We conducted a survey and evaluated more than 50 publicly available, large-scale ERAs published in the last decade to evaluate if USEPA's goal of uniformity in the use of wildlife TRVs has been met. In addition, these ERAs were reviewed to understand current practices for wildlife TRV use and development within the risk assessment community. The use of no observed and lowest observed adverse effect levels culled from published compendia was common practice among the majority of ERAs reviewed. We found increasing use over time of TRVs established in the Eco-SSL documents; however, Eco-SSL TRV values were not used in the majority of recent ERAs and there continues to be wide variation in TRVs for commonly studied contaminants (e.g., metals, pesticides, PAHs, and PCBs). Variability in the toxicity values was driven by differences in the key studies selected, dose estimation methods, and use of uncertainty factors. These differences result in TRVs that span multiple orders of magnitude for many of the chemicals examined. This lack of consistency in TRV development leads to highly variable results in ecological risk assessments conducted throughout the United States. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

Development and Psychometric Assessment of the Measure of Globalization Influence on Health Risk (MGIHR) Among Mexican Women with Breast Cancer.

PubMed

Nodora, Jesse N; Carvajal, Scott C; Robles-Garcia, Rebeca; Agraz, Francisco Páez; Daneri-Navarro, Adrian; Meza-Montenegro, Maria Mercedes; Gutierrez-Millan, Luis Enrique; Martinez, Maria Elena

2015-08-01

Lacking in the literature are data addressing the extent to which changes in reproductive and lifestyle factors predispose women in developing nations to higher breast cancer rates, and the degree to which these are due to globalization influences. This article describes the development and psychometric assessment of an instrument intended to measure global, predominantly U.S., influences on breast cancer risk profile among women residing in Mexico. Using investigator consensus and a focus group methodology, the Measure of Globalization Influence on Health Risk (MGIHR) was developed and completed by 341 women. Psychometric analysis support the use of an 11-item Consumerism and Modernity scale and 7-item Reproductive Control and Gender Role scale. The MGIHR is a valid and reliable instrument for understanding changing lifestyle and reproductive factors for breast cancer risk and may provide a more complete understanding of breast cancer development and needed interventions.

Research and application of borehole structure optimization based on pre-drill risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Guohui; Liu, Xinyun; Chenrong; Hugui; Yu, Wenhua; Sheng, Yanan; Guan, Zhichuan

2017-11-01

Borehole structure design based on pre-drill risk assessment and considering risks related to drilling operation is the pre-condition for safe and smooth drilling operation. Major risks of drilling operation include lost circulation, blowout, sidewall collapsing, sticking and failure of drilling tools etc. In the study, studying data from neighboring wells was used to calculate the profile of formation pressure with credibility in the target well, then the borehole structure design for the target well assessment by using the drilling risk assessment to predict engineering risks before drilling. Finally, the prediction results were used to optimize borehole structure design to prevent such drilling risks. The newly-developed technique provides a scientific basis for lowering probability and frequency of drilling engineering risks, and shortening time required to drill a well, which is of great significance for safe and high-efficient drilling.

Predictive models to assess risk of type 2 diabetes, hypertension and comorbidity: machine-learning algorithms and validation using national health data from Kuwait--a cohort study.

PubMed

Farran, Bassam; Channanath, Arshad Mohamed; Behbehani, Kazem; Thanaraj, Thangavel Alphonse

2013-05-14

We build classification models and risk assessment tools for diabetes, hypertension and comorbidity using machine-learning algorithms on data from Kuwait. We model the increased proneness in diabetic patients to develop hypertension and vice versa. We ascertain the importance of ethnicity (and natives vs expatriate migrants) and of using regional data in risk assessment. Retrospective cohort study. Four machine-learning techniques were used: logistic regression, k-nearest neighbours (k-NN), multifactor dimensionality reduction and support vector machines. The study uses fivefold cross validation to obtain generalisation accuracies and errors. Kuwait Health Network (KHN) that integrates data from primary health centres and hospitals in Kuwait. 270 172 hospital visitors (of which, 89 858 are diabetic, 58 745 hypertensive and 30 522 comorbid) comprising Kuwaiti natives, Asian and Arab expatriates. Incident type 2 diabetes, hypertension and comorbidity. Classification accuracies of >85% (for diabetes) and >90% (for hypertension) are achieved using only simple non-laboratory-based parameters. Risk assessment tools based on k-NN classification models are able to assign 'high' risk to 75% of diabetic patients and to 94% of hypertensive patients. Only 5% of diabetic patients are seen assigned 'low' risk. Asian-specific models and assessments perform even better. Pathological conditions of diabetes in the general population or in hypertensive population and those of hypertension are modelled. Two-stage aggregate classification models and risk assessment tools, built combining both the component models on diabetes (or on hypertension), perform better than individual models. Data on diabetes, hypertension and comorbidity from the cosmopolitan State of Kuwait are available for the first time. This enabled us to apply four different case-control models to assess risks. These tools aid in the preliminary non-intrusive assessment of the population. Ethnicity is seen significant to the predictive models. Risk assessments need to be developed using regional data as we demonstrate the applicability of the American Diabetes Association online calculator on data from Kuwait.

The NASA Space Radiobiology Risk Assessment Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Huff, Janice; Ponomarev, Artem; Patel, Zarana; Kim, Myung-Hee

The current first phase (2006-2011) has the three major goals of: 1) optimizing the conventional cancer risk models currently used based on the double-detriment life-table and radiation quality functions; 2) the integration of biophysical models of acute radiation syndromes; and 3) the development of new systems radiation biology models of cancer processes. The first-phase also includes continued uncertainty assessment of space radiation environmental models and transport codes, and relative biological effectiveness factors (RBE) based on flight data and NSRL results, respectively. The second phase of the (2012-2016) will: 1) develop biophysical models of central nervous system risks (CNS); 2) achieve comphrensive systems biology models of cancer processes using data from proton and heavy ion studies performed at NSRL; and 3) begin to identify computational models of biological countermeasures. Goals for the third phase (2017-2021) include: 1) the development of a systems biology model of cancer risks for operational use at NASA; 2) development of models of degenerative risks, 2) quantitative models of counter-measure impacts on cancer risks; and 3) indiviudal based risk assessments. Finally, we will support a decision point to continue NSRL research in support of NASA's exploration goals beyond 2021, and create an archival of NSRL research results for continued analysis. Details on near term goals, plans for a WEB based data resource of NSRL results, and a space radiation Wikepedia are described.

75 FR 6031 - Policy Paper on Revised Risk Assessment Methods for Workers, Children of Workers in Agricultural...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-02-05

... and its relationship to several other key Agency initiatives that are currently under development and... Assessment Methods for Workers, Children of Workers in Agricultural Fields, and Pesticides with No Food Uses... for comment a policy paper entitled ``Revised Risk Assessment Methods for Workers, Children of Workers...

Experts workshop on the ecotoxicological risk assessment of ionizable organic chemicals: Towards a science-based framework for chemical assessment

EPA Science Inventory

There is a growing need to develop analytical methods and tools that can be applied to assess the environmental risks associated with charged, polar, and ionisable organic chemicals, such as those used as active pharmaceutical ingredients, biocides, and surface active chemicals. ...

Assessing wildfire risks at multiple spatial scales

Treesearch

Justin Fitch

2008-01-01

In continuation of the efforts to advance wildfire science and develop tools for wildland fire managers, a spatial wildfire risk assessment was carried out using Classification and Regression Tree analysis (CART) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The analysis was performed at two scales. The small-scale assessment covered the entire state of New Mexico, while...

OPPT workplan risk assessment Methylene Chloride ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

These assessments will focus on the use of DCM and NMP in paint stripping. NMP exposures scenarios for this use result in inhalation and dermal exposure to consumers and workers. The low concern for environmental effects of NMP will be discussed in the assessment. In the case of DCM, there are human health concerns for both cancer and non-cancer effects. This DCM assessment of paint stripping uses will focus only on inhalation exposure to consumers and workers. The low concern for environmental effects of DCM will be discussed in the assessment. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.

Risk assessment can be a game-changing information technology--but too often it isn't.

PubMed

Goble, Robert; Bier, Vicki M

2013-11-01

The printing press was a game-changing information technology. Risk assessment could be also. At present, risk assessments are commonly used as one-time decision aids: they provide justification for a particular decision, and afterwards usually sit on a shelf. However, when viewed as information technologies, their potential uses are much broader. Risk assessments: (1) are repositories of structured information and a medium for communication; (2) embody evaluative structures for setting priorities; (3) can preserve information over time and permit asynchronous communication, thus encouraging learning and adaptation; and (4) explicitly address uncertain futures. Moreover, because of their "what-if" capabilities, risk assessments can serve as a platform for constructive discussion among parties that hold different values. The evolution of risk assessment in the nuclear industry shows how such attributes have been used to lower core-melt risks substantially through improved templates for maintenance and more effective coordination with regulators (although risk assessment has been less commonly used in improving emergency-response capabilities). The end result of this evolution in the nuclear industry has been the development of "living" risk assessments that are updated more or less in real time to answer even routine operational questions. Similar but untapped opportunities abound for the use of living risk assessments to reduce risks in small operational decisions as well as large policy decisions in other areas of hazard management. They can also help improve understanding of and communication about risks, and future risk assessment and management. Realization of these opportunities will require significant changes in incentives and active promotion by the risk analytic community. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Safety Assurance Factors for Electronic Health Record Resilience (SAFER): study protocol

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Implementation and use of electronic health records (EHRs) could lead to potential improvements in quality of care. However, the use of EHRs also introduces unique and often unexpected patient safety risks. Proactive assessment of risks and vulnerabilities can help address potential EHR-related safety hazards before harm occurs; however, current risk assessment methods are underdeveloped. The overall objective of this project is to develop and validate proactive assessment tools to ensure that EHR-enabled clinical work systems are safe and effective. Methods/Design This work is conceptually grounded in an 8-dimension model of safe and effective health information technology use. Our first aim is to develop self-assessment guides that can be used by health care institutions to evaluate certain high-risk components of their EHR-enabled clinical work systems. We will solicit input from subject matter experts and relevant stakeholders to develop guides focused on 9 specific risk areas and will subsequently pilot test the guides with individuals representative of likely users. The second aim will be to examine the utility of the self-assessment guides by beta testing the guides at selected facilities and conducting on-site evaluations. Our multidisciplinary team will use a variety of methods to assess the content validity and perceived usefulness of the guides, including interviews, naturalistic observations, and document analysis. The anticipated output of this work will be a series of self-administered EHR safety assessment guides with clear, actionable, checklist-type items. Discussion Proactive assessment of patient safety risks increases the resiliency of health care organizations to unanticipated hazards of EHR use. The resulting products and lessons learned from the development of the assessment guides are expected to be helpful to organizations that are beginning the EHR selection and implementation process as well as those that have already implemented EHRs. Findings from our project, currently underway, will inform future efforts to validate and implement tools that can be used by health care organizations to improve the safety of EHR-enabled clinical work systems. PMID:23587208

Assessing Risk for Sexual Offenders in New Zealand: Development and Validation of a Computer-Scored Risk Measure

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Skelton, Alexander; Riley, David; Wales, David; Vess, James

2006-01-01

A growing research base supports the predictive validity of actuarial methods of risk assessment with sexual offenders. These methods use clearly defined variables with demonstrated empirical association with re-offending. The advantages of actuarial measures for screening large numbers of offenders quickly and economically are further enhanced…

DEVELOPMENT OF A SYSTEMATIC APPROACH TO ACCURATELY MEASURE TRACE LEVELS OF VOCS AND SVOCS IN SOIL AND SEDIMENT WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT

EPA Science Inventory

Risk assessment is a crucial component of the site remediation decision-making process. Some current EPA methods do not have detection limits low enough for risk assessment of many VOCs (e.g., EPA Region 3 Risk Based Concentration levels, EPA Region 9 Preliminary Remediation Goa...

Environmental Risk Assessment System for Phosphogypsum Tailing Dams

PubMed Central

Sun, Xin; Tang, Xiaolong; Yi, Honghong; Li, Kai; Zhou, Lianbi; Xu, Xianmang

2013-01-01

This paper may be of particular interest to the readers as it provides a new environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams. In this paper, we studied the phosphogypsum tailing dams which include characteristics of the pollution source, environmental risk characteristics and evaluation requirements to identify the applicable environmental risk assessment methods. Two analytical methods, that is, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy logic, were used to handle the complexity of the environmental and nonquantitative data. Using our assessment method, different risk factors can be ranked according to their contributions to the environmental risk, thereby allowing the calculation of their relative priorities during decision making. Thus, environmental decision-makers can use this approach to develop alternative management strategies for proposed, ongoing, and completed PG tailing dams. PMID:24382947

Environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams.

PubMed

Sun, Xin; Ning, Ping; Tang, Xiaolong; Yi, Honghong; Li, Kai; Zhou, Lianbi; Xu, Xianmang

2013-01-01

This paper may be of particular interest to the readers as it provides a new environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams. In this paper, we studied the phosphogypsum tailing dams which include characteristics of the pollution source, environmental risk characteristics and evaluation requirements to identify the applicable environmental risk assessment methods. Two analytical methods, that is, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy logic, were used to handle the complexity of the environmental and nonquantitative data. Using our assessment method, different risk factors can be ranked according to their contributions to the environmental risk, thereby allowing the calculation of their relative priorities during decision making. Thus, environmental decision-makers can use this approach to develop alternative management strategies for proposed, ongoing, and completed PG tailing dams.

The Development of Louis MACRO (Mother and Child Risk Observation) Forms: Assessing Parent-Infant-Child Risk in the Presence of Maternal Mental Illness.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Louis, Andrea; And Others

1997-01-01

An Australian study of 110 mother-infant dyads and 85 mother-toddler dyads in which the mothers were mentally ill evaluated the effectiveness of the Mother and Child Risk Observation (MACRO). Results found that MACRO offers a convenient framework for assessing risk and interpreting the impact of maternal mental illness upon children. (Author/CR)

Technical Guidelines for Environmental Dredging of Contaminated Sediments

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-09-01

health and ecological risk assessments . • Evaluate the need for and effectiveness of source control. • Evaluate potential remedies. • Document... risk , resource damage assessments , remedy selec- tion, and remedy design). It is therefore important to consult as many data users as possible (e.g...Contaminated Sediment Risks at Hazardous Waste Sites (USEPA 2002a). Risk Management Prin- ciple Number 4 is: “Develop and refine a conceptual site model that

Risk Scan: A Review of Risk Assessment Capability and Maturity within the Canadian Safety and Security Program

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-06-01

SCADA / ICS Cyber Test Lab initiated in 2013 Psychosocial – academic research exists,; opportunity for sharing and developing impact assessment...ecosystems and species at risk), accidents / system failure (rail; pipelines ; ferries CSSP strategy for the North Focus on regional l(and local) problem...Guidance; business planning; environmental scan; proposal evaluation; and performance measurement Program Risk Management – Guidelines for project

Is adaptation or transformation needed? Active nanomaterials and risk analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuzma, Jennifer; Roberts, John Patrick

2016-07-01

Nanotechnology has been a key area of funding and policy for the United States and globally for the past two decades. Since nanotechnology research and development became a focus and nanoproducts began to permeate the market, scholars and scientists have been concerned about how to assess the risks that they may pose to human health and the environment. The newest generation of nanomaterials includes biomolecules that can respond to and influence their environments, and there is a need to explore whether and how existing risk-analysis frameworks are challenged by such novelty. To fill this niche, we used a modified approach of upstream oversight assessment (UOA), a subset of anticipatory governance. We first selected case studies of "active nanomaterials," that are early in research and development and designed for use in multiple sectors, and then considered them under several, key risk-analysis frameworks. We found two ways in which the cases challenge the frameworks. The first category relates to how to assess risk under a narrow framing of the term (direct health and environmental harm), and the second involves the definition of what constitutes a "risk" worthy of assessment and consideration in decision making. In light of these challenges, we propose some changes for risk analysis in the face of active nanostructures in order to improve risk governance.

Survey of mental health nurses' attitudes towards risk assessment, risk assessment tools and positive risk.

PubMed

Downes, C; Gill, A; Doyle, L; Morrissey, J; Higgins, A

2016-04-01

WHAT IS KNOWN ON THE SUBJECT?: Risk assessment and safety planning are a core aspect of the role of the mental health nurse. Conflicting views exist on the value of risk assessment tools. Few studies have examined mental health nurses' attitudes towards risk, including use of tools and the role of positive risk in recovery. WHAT THE PAPER ADDS TO EXISTING KNOWLEDGE?: Mental health nurses view risk assessment as a core dimension of their role and not merely an exercise to fulfil organizational clinical safety and governance obligations. The majority of nurses hold positive attitudes towards therapeutic or positive risk, and consider creative risk taking as vital to people's recovery. The majority of nurses believe that risk assessment tools facilitate professional decision making, however, some are concerned that tools may negatively impact upon therapeutic relationships. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE?: Ongoing education on the use of risk assessment tools is required to minimize views that their use is incompatible with therapeutic engagement, and to enable nurses to develop confidence to engage with positive risk and to allow service users make decisions and take responsibility. Introduction Risk assessment and safety planning are considered core components of the role of the mental health nurse; however, little is known about nurses' attitudes towards risk assessment, use of tools to assess risk or therapeutic risk taking. Aim This study aimed to explore mental health nurses' attitudes towards completing risk assessments, use of tools as an aid, and therapeutic or positive risk. Method An anonymous survey which included 13 attitudinal statements, rated on a five-point Likert scale, was completed by 381 mental health nurses working in adult services in Ireland. Findings Findings indicate strong support for the practice of risk assessment in mental health practice. The vast majority of nurses believe that risk assessment tools facilitate professional decision making; however, there is concern that the use of these tools may negatively impact upon therapeutic engagement with service users. The majority of participants have positive attitudes towards therapeutic risk, believing that service users have the right to take informed risks in the context of recovery-orientated care. Discussion The provision of education on the use of risk assessment tools within the context of engagement may help minimize views that the use of assessment tools are incompatible with therapeutic engagement. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Implementation of health risk assessments with family health history: barriers and benefits.

PubMed

Wu, R Ryanne; Orlando, Lori A

2015-09-01

Health risk assessments provide an opportunity to emphasise health promotion and disease prevention for individuals and populations at large. A key component of health risk assessments is the detailed collection of family health history information. This information is helpful in determining risk both for common chronic conditions and more rare diseases as well. While the concept of health risk assessments has been around since the Framingham Heart Study was launched in the 1950s, and such assessments are commonly performed in the workplace today, the US healthcare system has been slow to embrace them and the emphasis on prevention that they represent. Before wider implementation of health risk assessments within healthcare can be seen, several concerns must be addressed: (1) provider impact, (2) patient impact, (3) validity of patient-entered data and (4) health outcomes effect. Here, we describe recent developments in health risk assessment design that are helping to address these issues. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Environmental risk assessment of pesticides: state of the art and prospective improvement from science.

PubMed

Boivin, Arnaud; Poulsen, Véronique

2017-03-01

Pesticide risk assessment in the European regulatory framework is mandatory performed for active substances (pesticides) and the plant protection products they are constituents of. The aim is to guarantee that safe use can be achieved for the intended use of the product. This paper provides a feedback on the regulatory environmental risk assessment performed for pesticide registration at the EU and member state levels. The different steps of pesticide registration are addressed considering both exposure and hazard. In this paper, we focus on the environmental fate and behaviour in surface water together with the aquatic ecotoxicity of the substances to illustrate pesticide regulatory risk assessment performed for aquatic organisms. Current methodologies are presented along with highlights on potential improvements. For instance, as regards exposure aspects, moving from field based to landscape risk assessments is promising. Regarding ecotoxicology, ecological models may be valuable tools when applied to chemical risk assessment. In addition, interest and further developments to better take into account mitigation measures in risk assessment and management are also presented.

Risk Assessment of Alzheimer's Disease using the Information Diffusion Model from Structural Magnetic Resonance Imaging.

PubMed

Beheshti, Iman; Olya, Hossain G T; Demirel, Hasan

2016-04-05

Recently, automatic risk assessment methods have been a target for the detection of Alzheimer's disease (AD) risk. This study aims to develop an automatic computer-aided AD diagnosis technique for risk assessment of AD using information diffusion theory. Information diffusion is a fuzzy mathematics logic of set-value that is used for risk assessment of natural phenomena, which attaches fuzziness (uncertainty) and incompleteness. Data were obtained from voxel-based morphometry analysis of structural magnetic resonance imaging. The information diffusion model results revealed that the risk of AD increases with a reduction of the normalized gray matter ratio (p > 0.5, normalized gray matter ratio <40%). The information diffusion model results were evaluated by calculation of the correlation of two traditional risk assessments of AD, the Mini-Mental State Examination and the Clinical Dementia Rating. The correlation results revealed that the information diffusion model findings were in line with Mini-Mental State Examination and Clinical Dementia Rating results. Application of information diffusion model contributes to the computerization of risk assessment of AD, which has a practical implication for the early detection of AD.

Cardiovascular risk assessment in type 2 diabetes mellitus: comparison of the World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension risk prediction charts versus UK Prospective Diabetes Study risk engine.

PubMed

Herath, Herath M Meththananda; Weerarathna, Thilak Priyantha; Umesha, Dilini

2015-01-01

Patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) are at higher risk of developing cardiovascular diseases, and assessment of their cardiac risk is important for preventive strategies. The Ministry of Health of Sri Lanka has recommended World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) charts for cardiac risk assessment in individuals with T2DM. However, the most suitable cardiac risk assessment tool for Sri Lankans with T2DM has not been studied. This study was designed to evaluate the performance of two cardiac risk assessments tools; WHO/ISH charts and UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk engine. Cardiac risk assessments were done in 2,432 patients with T2DM attending a diabetes clinic in Southern Sri Lanka using the two risk assessment tools. Validity of two assessment tools was further assessed by their ability to recognize individuals with raised low-density lipoprotein (LDL) and raised diastolic blood pressure in a cohort of newly diagnosed T2DM patients (n=332). WHO/ISH charts identified 78.4% of subjects as low cardiac risk whereas the UKPDS risk engine categorized 52.3% as low cardiac risk (P<0.001). In the risk categories of 10%-<20%, the UKPDS risk engine identified higher proportions of patients (28%) compared to WHO/ISH charts (7%). Approximately 6% of subjects were classified as low cardiac risk (<10%) by WHO/ISH when UKPDS recognized them as cardiac risk of >20%. Agreement between the two tools was poor (κ value =0.144, P<0.01). Approximately 82% of individuals categorized as low cardiac risk by WHO/ISH had higher LDL cholesterol than the therapeutic target of 100 mg/dL. There is a significant discrepancy between the two assessment tools with WHO/ISH risk chart recognizing higher proportions of patients having low cardiac risk than the UKPDS risk engine. Risk assessment by both assessment tools demonstrated poor sensitivity in identifying those with treatable levels of LDL cholesterol and diastolic blood pressure.

Development of a methodology to assess man-made risks in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borst, D.; Jung, D.; Murshed, S. M.; Werner, U.

2006-09-01

Risk is a concept used to describe future potential outcomes of certain actions or events. Within the project "CEDIM - Risk Map Germany - Man-made Hazards" it is intended to develop methods for assessing and mapping the risk due to different human-induced hazards. This is a task that has not been successfully performed for Germany so far. Concepts of catastrophe modelling are employed including the spatial modelling of hazard, the compilation of different kinds of exposed elements, the estimation of their vulnerability and the direct loss potential in terms of human life and health. The paper is divided in two sections: First, an analytic framework for assessing the broad spectrum of human-induced risks is introduced. This approach is then applied for three important types of human-induced hazards that are representative for a whole class of hazards: Accidents due to nuclear power plants (NPP) or air traffic, and terrorism. For the analysis of accidents, risk is measured with respect to getting injured or dying when living in certain buffer zones around hazard locations. NPP hazard expert knowledge is used and supplemented with observations on aging effects leading to a proprietary index value for the risk. Air traffic risk is modelled as an area related phenomenon based on available accident statistics leading to an expected value of risk. Terrorism risk is assessed by the attraction certain elements (like embassies in the case of conventional threats) display in the eye of potential aggressors. For non-conventional targets like football games, a detailed approach measuring their susceptibility to different kinds of attacks within predefined scenarios was developed; this also allows a ranking of attack modes.

Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Bone Fracture - Bone Fracture Risk Module (BFxRM)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Licata, Angelo; Myers, Jerry G.; Lewandowski, Beth

2013-01-01

This presentation summarizes the concepts, development, and application of NASA's Bone Fracture Risk Module (BFxRM). The overview includes an assessmnet of strenghts and limitations of the BFxRM and proposes a numebr of discussion questions to the panel regarding future development avenues for this simulation system.

Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation-Based Disaster Risk Assessment of Desertification in Horqin Sand Land, China

PubMed Central

Wang, Yongfang; Zhang, Jiquan; Guo, Enliang; Sun, Zhongyi

2015-01-01

Desertification is a typical disaster risk event in which human settlements and living environments are destroyed. Desertification Disaster Risk Assessment can control and prevent the occurrence and development of desertification disasters and reduce their adverse influence on human society. This study presents the methodology and procedure for risk assessment and zoning of desertification disasters in Horqin Sand Land. Based on natural disaster risk theory and the desertification disaster formation mechanism, the Desertification Disaster Risk Index (DDRI) combined hazard, exposure, vulnerability and restorability factors and was developed mainly by using multi-source data and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The results showed that high risk and middle risk areas account for 28% and 23% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed with an “S” type in the study area. Low risk and very low risk areas account for 21% and 10% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed in the west-central and southwestern parts. Very high risk areas account for 18% of the study area and are distributed in the northeastern parts. The results can be used to know the desertification disaster risk level. It has important theoretical and practical significance to prevention and control of desertification in Horqin Sand Land and even in Northern China. PMID:25654772

Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation-based disaster risk assessment of desertification in Horqin Sand Land, China.

PubMed

Wang, Yongfang; Zhang, Jiquan; Guo, Enliang; Sun, Zhongyi

2015-02-03

Desertification is a typical disaster risk event in which human settlements and living environments are destroyed. Desertification Disaster Risk Assessment can control and prevent the occurrence and development of desertification disasters and reduce their adverse influence on human society. This study presents the methodology and procedure for risk assessment and zoning of desertification disasters in Horqin Sand Land. Based on natural disaster risk theory and the desertification disaster formation mechanism, the Desertification Disaster Risk Index (DDRI) combined hazard, exposure, vulnerability and restorability factors and was developed mainly by using multi-source data and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The results showed that high risk and middle risk areas account for 28% and 23% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed with an "S" type in the study area. Low risk and very low risk areas account for 21% and 10% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed in the west-central and southwestern parts. Very high risk areas account for 18% of the study area and are distributed in the northeastern parts. The results can be used to know the desertification disaster risk level. It has important theoretical and practical significance to prevention and control of desertification in Horqin Sand Land and even in Northern China.

PHOTOTOXIC POLYCYCLIC AROMATIC HYDROCARBONS IN SEDIMENTS: A MODEL-BASED APPROACH FOR ASSESSING RISK

EPA Science Inventory

Over the past five years we have developed a number of models which will be combined in an integrated framework with chemical-monitoring information to assess the potential for widespread risk of phototoxic PAHs in sediments.

Organism and population-level ecological models for chemical risk assessment

EPA Science Inventory

Ecological risk assessment typically focuses on animal populations as endpoints for regulatory ecotoxicology. Scientists at USEPA are developing models for animal populations exposed to a wide range of chemicals from pesticides to emerging contaminants. Modeled taxa include aquat...

Cumulative Aggregate Risk Evaluation Software

EPA Science Inventory

CARES is a state-of-the-art software program designed to conduct complex exposure and risk assessments for pesticides, such as the assessments required under the 1996 Food Quality Protection Act (FQPA). CARES was originally developed under the auspices of CropLife America (CLA),...

Parameters for Pyrethroid Insecticide QSAR and PBPK/PD Models for Human Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

This pyrethroid insecticide parameter review is an extension of our interest in developing quantitative structure–activity relationship–physiologically based pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (QSAR-PBPK/PD) models for assessing health risks, which interest started with the organoph...

Food consumption risks associated with animal clones: what should be investigated?

PubMed

Rudenko, Larisa; Matheson, John C; Adams, Amey L; Dubbin, Eric S; Greenlees, Kevin J

2004-01-01

Somatic Cell Nuclear Transfer (SCNT), or cloning, is likely to be used for the expansion of elite breeding stock of agronomically important livestock used for food. The Center for Veterinary Medicine at the US Food and Drug Administration has been developing a risk assessment to identify hazards and characterize food consumption risks that may result from cloning. The risk assessment is comprised of two prongs. The first evaluates the health of animal clones, and is referred to as the Critical Biological Systems Approach. The second considers the composition of meat and milk from animal clones. Assessing the safety of food products from animal clones and their progeny, at least during these early stages of the development of the technology, is best accomplished by using both approaches: prospectively drawing on our knowledge of biological systems in development and maturation, and in retrograde, from an analysis of food products. Subtle hazards and potential risks that may be posed by animal clones must, however, be considered in the context of other mutations and epigenetic changes that occur in all food animal populations.

Radiation Risk Assessment of the Individual Astronaut: A Complement to Radiation Interests at the NIH

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richmond, Robert C.

2004-01-01

Predicting human risks following exposure to space radiation is uncertain in part because of unpredictable distribution of high-LET and low-dose-derived damage amongst cells in tissues, unknown synergistic effects of microgravity upon gene- and protein-expression, and inadequately modeled processing of radiation-induced damage within cells to produce rare and late-appearing malignant cancers. Furthermore, estimation of risks of radiogenic outcome within small numbers of astronauts is not possible using classic epidemiologic study. It therefore seems useful to develop strategies of risk-assessment based upon large datasets acquired from correlated biological models useful for resolving radiogenic risk-assessment for irradiated individuals. In this regard, it is suggested that sensitive cellular biodosimeters that simultaneously report 1) the quantity of absorbed dose after exposure to ionizing radiation, 2) the quality of radiation delivering that dose, and 3) the biomolecular risk of malignant transformation be developed in order to resolve these NASA-specific challenges. Multiparametric cellular biodosimeters could be developed using analyses of gene-expression and protein-expression whereby large datasets of cellular response to radiation-induced damage are analyzed for markers predictive for acute response as well as cancer-risk. A new paradigm is accordingly addressed wherein genomic and proteomic datasets are registered and interrogated in order to provide statistically significant dose-dependent risk estimation in individual astronauts. This evaluation of the individual for assessment of radiogenic outcomes connects to NIH program in that such a paradigm also supports assignment of a given patient to a specific therapy, the diagnosis of response of that patient to therapy, and the prediction of risks accumulated by that patient during therapy - such as risks incurred by scatter and neutrons produced during high-energy Intensity-Modulated Radiation Therapy. Value of assessment of radiogenic outcome for individuals exposed to radiation is suggested to be common to both NASA and NIH.

Effect of genetic testing for risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus on health behaviors and outcomes: study rationale, development and design.

PubMed

Cho, Alex H; Killeya-Jones, Ley A; O'Daniel, Julianne M; Kawamoto, Kensaku; Gallagher, Patrick; Haga, Susanne; Lucas, Joseph E; Trujillo, Gloria M; Joy, Scott V; Ginsburg, Geoffrey S

2012-01-18

Type 2 diabetes is a prevalent chronic condition globally that results in extensive morbidity, decreased quality of life, and increased health services utilization. Lifestyle changes can prevent the development of diabetes, but require patient engagement. Genetic risk testing might represent a new tool to increase patients' motivation for lifestyle changes. Here we describe the rationale, development, and design of a randomized controlled trial (RCT) assessing the clinical and personal utility of incorporating type 2 diabetes genetic risk testing into comprehensive diabetes risk assessments performed in a primary care setting. Patients are recruited in the laboratory waiting areas of two primary care clinics and enrolled into one of three study arms. Those interested in genetic risk testing are randomized to receive either a standard risk assessment (SRA) for type 2 diabetes incorporating conventional risk factors plus upfront disclosure of the results of genetic risk testing ("SRA+G" arm), or the SRA alone ("SRA" arm). Participants not interested in genetic risk testing will not receive the test, but will receive SRA (forming a third, "no-test" arm). Risk counseling is provided by clinic staff (not study staff external to the clinic). Fasting plasma glucose, insulin levels, body mass index (BMI), and waist circumference are measured at baseline and 12 months, as are patients' self-reported behavioral and emotional responses to diabetes risk information. Primary outcomes are changes in insulin resistance and BMI after 12 months; secondary outcomes include changes in diet patterns, physical activity, waist circumference, and perceived risk of developing diabetes. The utility, feasibility, and efficacy of providing patients with genetic risk information for common chronic diseases in primary care remain unknown. The study described here will help to establish whether providing type 2 diabetes genetic risk information in a primary care setting can help improve patients' clinical outcomes, risk perceptions, and/or their engagement in healthy behavior change. In addition, study design features such as the use of existing clinic personnel for risk counseling could inform the future development and implementation of care models for the use of individual genetic risk information in primary care. ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00849563.

Development and Psychometric Evaluation of the Reasons for Living-Older Adults Scale: A Suicide Risk Assessment Inventory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Edelstein, Barry A.; Heisel, Marnin J.; McKee, Deborah R.; Martin, Ronald R.; Koven, Lesley P.; Duberstein, Paul R.; Britton, Peter C.

2009-01-01

Purpose: The purposes of these studies were to develop and initially evaluate the psychometric properties of the Reasons for Living Scale-Older Adult version (RFL-OA), an older adults version of a measure designed to assess reasons for living among individuals at risk for suicide. Design and Methods: Two studies are reported. Study 1 involved…

A Methodology to Evaluate Ecological Resources and Risk Using Two Case Studies at the Department of Energy's Hanford Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael; Bunn, Amoret; Downs, Janelle; Jeitner, Christian; Pittfield, Taryn; Salisbury, Jennifer; Kosson, David

2017-03-01

An assessment of the potential risks to ecological resources from remediation activities or other perturbations should involve a quantitative evaluation of resources on the remediation site and in the surrounding environment. We developed a risk methodology to rapidly evaluate potential impact on ecological resources for the U.S. Department of Energy's Hanford Site in southcentral Washington State. We describe the application of the risk evaluation for two case studies to illustrate its applicability. The ecological assessment involves examining previous sources of information for the site, defining different resource levels from 0 to 5. We also developed a risk rating scale from non-discernable to very high. Field assessment is the critical step to determine resource levels or to determine if current conditions are the same as previously evaluated. We provide a rapid assessment method for current ecological conditions that can be compared to previous site-specific data, or that can be used to assess resource value on other sites where ecological information is not generally available. The method is applicable to other Department of Energy's sites, where its development may involve a range of state regulators, resource trustees, Tribes and other stakeholders. Achieving consistency across Department of Energy's sites for valuation of ecological resources on remediation sites will assure Congress and the public that funds and personnel are being deployed appropriately.

A Methodology to Evaluate Ecological Resources and Risk Using Two Case Studies at the Department of Energy's Hanford Site.

PubMed

Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael; Bunn, Amoret; Downs, Janelle; Jeitner, Christian; Pittfield, Taryn; Salisbury, Jennifer; Kosson, David

2017-03-01

An assessment of the potential risks to ecological resources from remediation activities or other perturbations should involve a quantitative evaluation of resources on the remediation site and in the surrounding environment. We developed a risk methodology to rapidly evaluate potential impact on ecological resources for the U.S. Department of Energy's Hanford Site in southcentral Washington State. We describe the application of the risk evaluation for two case studies to illustrate its applicability. The ecological assessment involves examining previous sources of information for the site, defining different resource levels from 0 to 5. We also developed a risk rating scale from non-discernable to very high. Field assessment is the critical step to determine resource levels or to determine if current conditions are the same as previously evaluated. We provide a rapid assessment method for current ecological conditions that can be compared to previous site-specific data, or that can be used to assess resource value on other sites where ecological information is not generally available. The method is applicable to other Department of Energy's sites, where its development may involve a range of state regulators, resource trustees, Tribes and other stakeholders. Achieving consistency across Department of Energy's sites for valuation of ecological resources on remediation sites will assure Congress and the public that funds and personnel are being deployed appropriately.

La Conchita Landslide Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kropp, A.; Johnson, L.; Magnusen, W.; Hitchcock, C. S.

2009-12-01

Following the disastrous landslide in La Conchita in 2005 that resulted in ten deaths, the State of California selected our team to prepare a risk assessment for a committee of key stakeholders. The stakeholders represented the State of California, Ventura County, members of the La Conchita community, the railroad, and the upslope ranch owner (where the slide originated); a group with widely varying views and interests. Our team was charged with characterizing the major hazards, developing a series of mitigation concepts, evaluating the benefits and costs of mitigation, and gathering stakeholder input throughout the process. Two unique elements of the study were the methodologies utilized for the consequence assessment and for the decision-making framework. La Conchita is exposed to multiple slope hazards, each with differing geographical distributions, as well as depth and velocity characteristics. Three consequence matrices were developed so that the potential financial losses, structural vulnerabilities, and human safety exposure could be evaluated. The matrices utilized semi-quantitative loss evaluations (both financial and life safety) based on a generalized understanding of likely vulnerability and hazard characteristics. The model provided a quantitative estimate of cumulative losses over a 50-year period, including losses of life based on FEMA evaluation criteria. Conceptual mitigation options and loss estimates were developed to provide a range of risk management solutions that were feasible from a cost-benefit standpoint. A decision tree approach was adopted to focus on fundamental risk management questions rather than on specific outcomes since the committee did not have a consensus view on the preferred solution. These questions included: 1. Over what time period can risks be tolerated before implementation of decisions? 2. Whose responsibility is it to identify a workable risk management solution? 3. Who will own the project? The decision tree developed for assessment can also be used in the reverse direction to evaluate a project impasse or to evaluate owners and time-frames associated with a particular risk management outcome. Although the processes developed were specific to the La Conchita study, we believe that they are applicable elsewhere for localized multi-hazard assessments and/or committee-led risk management efforts.

Relative risk analysis of the use of radiation-emitting medical devices: A preliminary application

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, E.D.

This report describes the development of a risk analysis approach for evaluating the use of radiation-emitting medial devices. This effort was performed by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The assessment approach has bee applied to understand the risks in using the Gamma Knife, a gamma irradiation therapy device. This effort represents an initial step to evaluate the potential role of risk analysis for developing regulations and quality assurance requirements in the use of nuclear medical devices. The risk approach identifies and assesses the most likely risk contributors and their relative importance for the medicalmore » system. The approach uses expert screening techniques and relative risk profiling to incorporate the type, quality, and quantity of data available and to present results in an easily understood form.« less

Developing a pressure ulcer risk assessment scale for patients in long-term care.

PubMed

Lepisto, Mervi; Eriksson, Elina; Hietanen, Helvi; Lepisto, Jyri; Lauri, Sirkka

2006-02-01

Previous pressure ulcer risk assessment scales appear to have relied on opinions about risk factors and are based on care setting rather than research evidence. Utilizing 21 existing risk assessment scales and relevant risk factor literature, an instrument was developed by Finnish researchers that takes into account individual patient risk factors, devices and methods applied in nursing care, and organizational characteristics. The instrument underwent two pilot tests to assess the relevance and clarity of the instrument: the first involved 43 nurses and six patients; the second involved 50 nurses with expertise in wound care. Changes to questionnaire items deemed necessary as a result of descriptive analysis and agreement percentages were completed. After pilot testing, the final instrument addressed the following issues: 1) patient risks: activity, mobility in bed, mental status, nutrition, urinary incontinence, fecal incontinence, sensory perception, and skin condition; 2) devices and methods used in patient care: technical devices, bed type, mattress, overlay, seat cushions, and care methods; and 3) staff number and structure, maximum number of beds, and beds in use (the last group of questions were included to ensure participants understood the items; results were not analyzed). The phases of the study provided an expeditious means of data collection and a suitable opportunity to assess how the instrument would function in practice. Instrument reliability and validity were improved as a result of the pilot testing and can be enhanced further with continued use and assessment.

Biosecurity Risk Assessment Methodology (BioRAM) v. 2.0

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

CASKEY, SUSAN; GAUDIOSO, JENNIFER; SALERNO, REYNOLDS

Sandia National Laboratories International Biological Threat Reduction Dept (SNL/IBTR) has an ongoing mission to enhance biosecurity assessment methodologies, tools, and guise. These will aid labs seeking to implement biosecurity as advocated in the recently released WHO's Biorisk Management: Lab Biosecurity Guidance. BioRAM 2.0 is the software tool developed initially using the SNL LDRD process and designed to complement the "Laboratory Biosecurity Risk Handbook" written by Ren Salerno and Jennifer Gaudioso defining biosecurity risk assessment methodologies.

Development of risk assessment tool for foundry workers.

PubMed

Mohan, G Madhan; Prasad, P S S; Mokkapati, Anil Kumar; Venkataraman, G

2008-01-01

Occupational ill-health and work-related disorders are predominant in manufacturing industries due to the inevitable presence of manual work even after several waves of industrial automation and technological advancements. Ergonomic risk factors and musculoskeletal disorders like low-back symptoms have been noted amongst foundry workers. The purpose of this study was to formulate and develop a Physical Effort Index to assess risk factor. The questionnaire tool applicable to foundry environment has been designed and validated. The data recorded through survey across the foundries has been subjected to regression analysis to correlate between proposed physical effort index and the standard Borg's Ratings of Perceived Exertion (RPE) scale. The physical efforts of sixty seven workers in various foundry shop floors were assessed subjectively. The 'Job factors' and 'Work environment' were the two major parameters considered in assessing the worker discomfort level at workplace. A relation between Borg's RPE scale and the above two parameters were arrived at, through regression analysis. The study demonstrates the prevalence of risk factors amongst foundry workers and the effectiveness of the proposed index in estimating the risk factor levels. RELEVANCE TO THE INDUSTRY: The proposed tool will assist foundry supervisors and managers to assess the risk factors and helps in better understanding of the workplace to avoid work-related disorders, ensuring better output.

Development and evaluation of a risk communication curriculum for medical students.

PubMed

Han, Paul K J; Joekes, Katherine; Elwyn, Glyn; Mazor, Kathleen M; Thomson, Richard; Sedgwick, Philip; Ibison, Judith; Wong, John B

2014-01-01

To develop, pilot, and evaluate a curriculum for teaching clinical risk communication skills to medical students. A new experience-based curriculum, "Risk Talk," was developed and piloted over a 1-year period among students at Tufts University School of Medicine. An experimental study of 2nd-year students exposed vs. unexposed to the curriculum was conducted to evaluate the curriculum's efficacy. Primary outcome measures were students' objective (observed) and subjective (self-reported) risk communication competence; the latter was assessed using an Observed Structured Clinical Examination (OSCE) employing new measures. Twenty-eight 2nd-year students completed the curriculum, and exhibited significantly greater (p<.001) objective and subjective risk communication competence than a convenience sample of 24 unexposed students. New observational measures of objective competence in risk communication showed promising evidence of reliability and validity. The curriculum was resource-intensive. The new experience-based clinical risk communication curriculum was efficacious, although resource-intensive. More work is needed to develop the feasibility of curriculum delivery, and to improve the measurement of competence in clinical risk communication. Risk communication is an important advanced communication skill, and the Risk Talk curriculum provides a model educational intervention and new assessment tools to guide future efforts to teach and evaluate this skill. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of the Nutrition and Swallowing Checklist, a Screening Tool for Nutrition Risk and Swallowing Risk in People with Intellectual Disability.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stewart, Lyn

2003-01-01

This article discusses nutrition problems in people with intellectual disabilities, the need for nutrition risk screening, and the development of the Nutrition and Swallowing Checklist in New South Wales. The checklist ensures carer involvement in identifying risks and an interdisciplinary approach to the assessment and management of nutrition and…

Development of funding project risk management tools.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-11-01

Funding project risk management is a process for identifying, assessing, and prioritizing project funding risks. To plan to : minimize or eliminate the impact of negative events, one must identify what projects have higher risk to respond to potentia...

All Hazards Risk Assessment Transition Project: Report on Capability Assessment Management System (CAMS) Automation

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-04-01

All Hazards Risk Assessment Transition Project : Report on Capability Assessment Management System (CAMS) Automation...Prepared by: George Giroux Computer Applications Specialist Modis155 Queen Street, Suite 1206 Ottawa, ON K1P 6L1 Contract # THS 2335474-2 Project ...Under a Canadian Safety and Security Program (CSSP) targeted investigation (TI) project (CSSP-2012-TI- 1108), Defence Research and Development

A Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Groundwater-Related Risks at Excavation Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jurado, A.; de Gaspari, F.; Vilarrasa, V.; Sanchez-Vila, X.; Fernandez-Garcia, D.; Tartakovsky, D. M.; Bolster, D.

2010-12-01

Excavation sites such as those associated with the construction of subway lines, railways and highway tunnels are hazardous places, posing risks to workers, machinery and surrounding buildings. Many of these risks can be groundwater related. In this work we develop a general framework based on a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) to quantify such risks. This approach is compatible with standard PRA practices and it employs many well-developed risk analysis tools, such as fault trees. The novelty and computational challenges of the proposed approach stem from the reliance on stochastic differential equations, rather than reliability databases, to compute the probabilities of basic events. The general framework is applied to a specific case study in Spain. It is used to estimate and minimize risks for a potential construction site of an underground station for the new subway line in the Barcelona metropolitan area.

Applying the Land Use Portfolio Model with Hazus to analyse risk from natural hazard events

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dinitz, Laura B.; Taketa, Richard A.

2013-01-01

This paper describes and demonstrates the integration of two geospatial decision-support systems for natural-hazard risk assessment and management. Hazus is a risk-assessment tool developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency to identify risks and estimate the severity of risk from natural hazards. The Land Use Portfolio Model (LUPM) is a risk-management tool developed by the U.S. Geological Survey to evaluate plans or actions intended to reduce risk from natural hazards. We analysed three mitigation policies for one earthquake scenario in the San Francisco Bay area to demonstrate the added value of using Hazus and the LUPM together. The demonstration showed that Hazus loss estimates can be input to the LUPM to obtain estimates of losses avoided through mitigation, rates of return on mitigation investment, and measures of uncertainty. Together, they offer a more comprehensive approach to help with decisions for reducing risk from natural hazards.

A framework for cumulative risk assessment in the 21st century.

PubMed

Moretto, Angelo; Bachman, Ammie; Boobis, Alan; Solomon, Keith R; Pastoor, Timothy P; Wilks, Martin F; Embry, Michelle R

2017-02-01

The ILSI Health and Environmental Sciences Institute (HESI) has developed a framework to support a transition in the way in which information for chemical risk assessment is obtained and used (RISK21). The approach is based on detailed problem formulation, where exposure drives the data acquisition process in order to enable informed decision-making on human health safety as soon as sufficient evidence is available. Information is evaluated in a transparent and consistent way with the aim of optimizing available resources. In the context of risk assessment, cumulative risk assessment (CRA) poses additional problems and questions that can be addressed using the RISK21 approach. The focus in CRA to date has generally been on chemicals that have common mechanisms of action. Recently, concern has also been expressed about chemicals acting on multiple pathways that lead to a common health outcome, and non-chemical other conditions (non-chemical stressors) that can lead to or modify a common outcome. Acknowledging that CRAs, as described above, are more conceptually, methodologically and computationally complex than traditional single-stressor risk assessments, RISK21 further developed the framework for implementation of workable processes and procedures for conducting assessments of combined effects from exposure to multiple chemicals and non-chemical stressors. As part of the problem formulation process, this evidence-based framework allows the identification of the circumstances in which it is appropriate to conduct a CRA for a group of compounds. A tiered approach is then proposed, where additional chemical stressors and/or non-chemical modulating factors (ModFs) are considered sequentially. Criteria are provided to facilitate the decision on whether or not to include ModFs in the formal quantitative assessment, with the intention to help focus the use of available resources to have the greatest potential to protect public health.

Applying comprehensive environmental assessment to research planning for multiwalled carbon nanotubes: Refinements to inform future stakeholder engagement.

PubMed

Powers, Christina M; Grieger, Khara; Meacham, Connie A; Gooding, Meredith Lassiter; Gift, Jeffrey S; Lehmann, Geniece M; Hendren, Christine O; Davis, J Michael; Burgoon, Lyle

2016-01-01

Risk assessments and risk management efforts to protect human health and the environment can benefit from early, coordinated research planning by researchers, risk assessors, and risk managers. However, approaches for engaging these and other stakeholders in research planning have not received much attention in the environmental scientific literature. The Comprehensive Environmental Assessment (CEA) approach under development by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) is a means to manage complex information and input from diverse stakeholder perspectives on research planning that will ultimately support environmental and human health decision making. The objectives of this article are to 1) describe the outcomes of applying lessons learned from previous CEA applications to planning research on engineered nanomaterial, multiwalled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) and 2) discuss new insights and refinements for future efforts to engage stakeholders in research planning for risk assessment and risk management of environmental issues. Although framed in terms of MWCNTs, this discussion is intended to enhance research planning to support assessments for other environmental issues as well. Key insights for research planning include the potential benefits of 1) ensuring that participants have research, risk assessment, and risk management expertise in addition to diverse disciplinary backgrounds; 2) including an early scoping step before rounds of formal ratings; 3) using a familiar numeric scale (e.g., US dollars) versus ordinal rating scales of "importance"; 4) applying virtual communication tools to supplement face-to-face interaction between participants; and 5) refining criteria to guide development of specific, actionable research questions. © 2015 SETAC.

American Society of Clinical Oncology Policy Statement: The Role of the Oncologist in Cancer Prevention and Risk Assessment

PubMed Central

Zon, Robin T.; Goss, Elizabeth; Vogel, Victor G.; Chlebowski, Rowan T.; Jatoi, Ismail; Robson, Mark E.; Wollins, Dana S.; Garber, Judy E.; Brown, Powel; Kramer, Barnett S.

2009-01-01

Oncologists have a critical opportunity to utilize risk assessment and cancer prevention strategies to interrupt the initiation or progression of cancer in cancer survivors and individuals at high risk of developing cancer. Expanding knowledge about the natural history and prognosis of cancers positions oncologists to advise patients regarding the risk of second malignancies and treatment-related cancers. In addition, as recognized experts in the full spectrum of cancer care, oncologists are afforded opportunities for involvement in community-based cancer prevention activities. Although oncologists are currently providing many cancer prevention and risk assessment services to their patients, economic barriers exist, including inadequate or lack of insurance, that may compromise uniform patient access to these services. Additionally, insufficient reimbursement for existing and developing interventions may discourage patient access to these services. The American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO), the medical society representing cancer specialists involved in patient care and clinical research, is committed to supporting oncologists in their wide-ranging involvement in cancer prevention. This statement on risk assessment and prevention counseling, although not intended to be a comprehensive overview of cancer prevention describes the current role of oncologists in risk assessment and prevention; provides examples of risk assessment and prevention activities that should be offered by oncologists; identifies potential opportunities for coordination between oncologists and primary care physicians in prevention education and coordination of care for cancer survivors; describes ASCO's involvement in education and training of oncologists regarding prevention; and proposes improvement in the payment environment to encourage patient access to these services. PMID:19075281

Developing a tool for nurses to assess risk of infection in pediatric oncology patients in China: a modified Delphi study.

PubMed

Zhou, Yufeng; Cui, Yan; Wang, Hong; Wang, Fang; Lu, Chao; Shen, Yan

2016-09-01

Infections are identified as the most common preventable cause of death in pediatric oncology patients. Assessing and stratifying risk of infections are essential to prevent infection in these patients. To date, no tool can fulfill this demand in China. This study aimed to develop a nursing work-based and Chinese-specific tool for pediatric nurses to assess risk of infection in oncology patients. This research was a modified Delphi study. Based on a literature review, a 37-item questionnaire rating on a 0-5 scale was developed. Twenty-four experts from 8 hospitals in 6 provinces of China were consulted for three rounds. Consensus for each item in the first round was defined as: the rating mean was>3 and the coefficient of variation (CV) was<0.5. Consensus for each item in the second round was defined as CV<0.3. Consensus among experts was defined as: P value of Kendall's coefficient of concordance ( W )<0.05. After three rounds of consultation, a two-part tool was developed: the Immune Status Scale (ISS) and the Checklist of Risk Factors of Infection (CRFI). There were 5 items in the ISS and 14 in the CRFI. Based on the ISS score, nurses could stratify children into the low-risk and high-risk groups. For high-risk children, nurses should screen risk factors of infection every day by the CRFI, and twice weekly for low-risk children. Further study is needed to verify this tool's efficacy. © 2016 the Journal of Biomedical Research. All rights reserved.

Taking Risk Assessment and Management to the Next Level: Program-Level Risk Analysis to Enable Solid Decision-Making on Priorities and Funding

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nelson, J. G.; Morton, R. L.; Castillo, C.

2011-02-01

A multi-level (facility and programmatic) risk assessment was conducted for the facilities in the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) Readiness in Technical Base and Facilities (RTBF) Program and results were included in a new Risk Management Plan (RMP), which was incorporated into the fiscal year (FY) 2010 Integrated Plans. Risks, risk events, probability, consequence(s), and mitigation strategies were identified and captured, for most scope areas (i.e., risk categories) during the facilitated risk workshops. Risk mitigations (i.e., efforts in addition to existing controls) were identified during the facilitated risk workshops when the risk event was identified. Risk mitigation strategies fell intomore » two broad categories: threats or opportunities. Improvement projects were identified and linked to specific risks they mitigate, making the connection of risk reduction through investments for the annual Site Execution Plan. Due to the amount of that was collected, analysis to be performed, and reports to be generated, a Risk Assessment/ Management Tool (RAMtool) database was developed to analyze the risks in real-time, at multiple levels, which reinforced the site-level risk management process and procedures. The RAMtool database was developed and designed to assist in the capturing and analysis of the key elements of risk: probability, consequence, and impact. The RAMtool calculates the facility-level and programmatic-level risk factors to enable a side-by-side comparison to see where the facility manager and program manager should focus their risk reduction efforts and funding. This enables them to make solid decisions on priorities and funding to maximize the risk reduction. A more active risk management process was developed where risks and opportunities are actively managed, monitored, and controlled by each facility more aggressively and frequently. risk owners have the responsibility and accountability to manage their assigned risk in real-time, using the RAMtool database.« less

Brief Opioid Overdose Knowledge (BOOK): A Questionnaire to Assess Overdose Knowledge in Individuals Who Use Illicit or Prescribed Opioids.

PubMed

Dunn, Kelly E; Barrett, Frederick S; Yepez-Laubach, Claudia; Meyer, Andrew C; Hruska, Bryce J; Sigmon, Stacey C; Fingerhood, Michael; Bigelow, George E

2016-01-01

Opioid overdose is a public health crisis. This study describes efforts to develop and validate the Brief Opioid Overdose Knowledge (BOOK) questionnaire to assess patient knowledge gaps related to opioid overdose risks. Two samples of illicit opioid users and a third sample of patients receiving an opioid for the treatment of chronic pain (total N = 848) completed self-report items pertaining to opioid overdose risks. A 3-factor scale was established, representing Opioid Knowledge (4 items), Opioid Overdose Knowledge (4 items), and Opioid Overdose Response Knowledge (4 items). The scale had strong internal and face validity. Patients with chronic pain performed worse than illicit drug users in almost all items assessed, highlighting the need to increase knowledge of opioid overdose risk to this population. This study sought to develop a brief, internally valid method for quickly assessing deficits in opioid overdose risk areas within users of illicit and prescribed opioids, to provide an efficient metric for assessing and comparing educational interventions, facilitate conversations between physicians and patients about overdose risks, and help formally identify knowledge deficits in other patient populations.

Venous thromboembolism: patient awareness and education in the pre-operative assessment clinic.

PubMed

Haymes, Adam

2016-04-01

Each year venous thromboembolism (VTE) causes up to 60,000 deaths in the UK, many resulting from hospital-acquired thromboses following elective surgery. National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) guidelines state that all elective surgical patients should receive verbal and written information pre-operatively regarding the risks of developing VTE. This audit assessed elective surgical patient's prior awareness of VTE and examined how effective targeted patient education during the pre-operative assessment is in increasing this awareness. A 13 point questionnaire designed to assess a pre-operative patient's understanding of topics relating to VTE was provided to consecutive patients identified as being at risk of developing VTE at the end of their pre-operative assessment over a two-week period. A total of 68 questionnaires were completed. Provision of verbal and written information was poor (47 %, n = 32 and 47 %, n = 32 respectively). Despite this, 71 % (n = 48) of patients were aware of the consequences of developing VTE. Many patients correctly identified surgery (71 %, n = 48), immobility (71 %, n = 48) and being overweight (68 %, n = 46) as risk factors, but not dehydration (47 %, n = 32). Lack of awareness regarding personal methods to reduce the risk of developing a VTE post-operatively (24 %, n = 16) and potential side-effects of medical prophylaxis (32 %, n = 22) were also identified. Many patients already possess an awareness of VTE, however, specific knowledge regarding its risk factors and methods of prevention is lacking. Provision of targeted written and verbal educational information during the pre-operative assessment is an effective method of increasing a patient's awareness of these topics. Increased patient awareness may empower patients in their post-operative recovery and enable them to make more informed decisions regarding VTE prophylaxis options.

Investigation of nuclear nano-morphology marker as a biomarker for cancer risk assessment using a mouse model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bista, Rajan K.; Uttam, Shikhar; Hartman, Douglas J.; Qiu, Wei; Yu, Jian; Zhang, Lin; Brand, Randall E.; Liu, Yang

2012-06-01

The development of accurate and clinically applicable tools to assess cancer risk is essential to define candidates to undergo screening for early-stage cancers at a curable stage or provide a novel method to monitor chemoprevention treatments. With the use of our recently developed optical technology--spatial-domain low-coherence quantitative phase microscopy (SL-QPM), we have derived a novel optical biomarker characterized by structure-derived optical path length (OPL) properties from the cell nucleus on the standard histology and cytology specimens, which quantifies the nano-structural alterations within the cell nucleus at the nanoscale sensitivity, referred to as nano-morphology marker. The aim of this study is to evaluate the feasibility of the nuclear nano-morphology marker from histologically normal cells, extracted directly from the standard histology specimens, to detect early-stage carcinogenesis, assess cancer risk, and monitor the effect of chemopreventive treatment. We used a well-established mouse model of spontaneous carcinogenesis--ApcMin mice, which develop multiple intestinal adenomas (Min) due to a germline mutation in the adenomatous polyposis coli (Apc) gene. We found that the nuclear nano-morphology marker quantified by OPL detects the development of carcinogenesis from histologically normal intestinal epithelial cells, even at an early pre-adenomatous stage (six weeks). It also exhibits a good temporal correlation with the small intestine that parallels the development of carcinogenesis and cancer risk. To further assess its ability to monitor the efficacy of chemopreventive agents, we used an established chemopreventive agent, sulindac. The nuclear nano-morphology marker is reversed toward normal after a prolonged treatment. Therefore, our proof-of-concept study establishes the feasibility of the SL-QPM derived nuclear nano-morphology marker OPL as a promising, simple and clinically applicable biomarker for cancer risk assessment and evaluation of chemopreventive treatment.

Risk factors for the development of posttraumatic stress disorder following combat trauma: a semiprospective study.

PubMed

Zohar, Joseph; Fostick, Leah; Cohen, Ayala; Bleich, Avi; Dolfin, Dan; Weissman, Zeev; Doron, Miki; Kaplan, Zeev; Klein, Ehud; Shalev, Arieh Y

2009-12-01

When positioned in a combat situation, soldiers may be subjected to extreme stress. However, only a few combat-exposed soldiers develop long-term disturbance, namely, posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). This study aimed to explore risk factors for developing PTSD in order to improve the psychiatric screening process of new recruits. In a semiprospective design, we compared 2,362 war veterans who developed PTSD (according to DSM-IV criteria) with an equal number of war veterans who did not develop PTSD. Controls were matched on the basis of sequential army identification numbers, that is, the soldier drafted immediately after the index PTSD veteran (usually on the same day). This method ensured similar demographic variables such as socioeconomic level and education. Data were collected from the Israeli Defense Force database and used in a comprehensive survey conducted between January 2000 and March 2001. Comparisons were made on predrafting personal factors (behavioral assessment, cognitive assessment, linguistic ability, and education) and pretrauma army characteristics (ie, rank and training). Neither behavioral assessment nor training were found to predict PTSD. The predictive factors that were found were essentially nonspecific, such as cognitive functioning, education, rank, and position during the trauma, with little effect from training. In an armed force that uses universal recruitment, carefully structured predrafting psychological assessment of social and individual qualifications (including motivation) failed to identify increased risk factors for PTSD. However, nonspecific factors were found to be associated with an increased risk for PTSD. This study suggests that the focus of future research on risk factors for PTSD should incorporate other domains rather than behavioral assessment alone. clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00229359. Copyright 2009 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

Risk assessments for dating violence in mid to late adolescence and early adulthood.

PubMed

Tapp, James; Moore, Estelle

2016-10-01

The objective of this paper is to review risk instruments that have been used in the assessment of the potential for violence within the dating relationships of young people. A review of the dating violence literature was conducted to identify risk assessment approaches that have been used to predict harmful behaviour within the dating relationships of people aged between 15 and 30 years. Risk assessments were evaluated on recommended quality criteria: predictive validity, accuracy (sensitivity and specificity) and inter-rater reliability. Only five studies describing assessments that focused specifically on dating violence risk factors were selected for review. Three assessments encompassed dating behaviours by victims that have been associated with an increased risk of further victimisation. Drawing on this evidence, we conclude that young people appear to be at greater risk of encountering dating violence if they have experienced violence in earlier attachment relationships; if their skills for coping with conflict and responding to coercion are limited and if the presence of peer influences reinforces offence supportive attitudes. The reliability and validity of existing intimate partner violence risk assessments that conceptually overlap with elements of dating violence risk warrant investigation to inform risk assessment developments in this field and, building on this, possible interventions to minimise future harm. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Population modeling for pesticide risk assessment of threatened species-A case study of a terrestrial plant, Boltonia decurrens.

PubMed

Schmolke, Amelie; Brain, Richard; Thorbek, Pernille; Perkins, Daniel; Forbes, Valery

2017-02-01

Although population models are recognized as necessary tools in the ecological risk assessment of pesticides, particularly for species listed under the Endangered Species Act, their application in this context is currently limited to very few cases. The authors developed a detailed, individual-based population model for a threatened plant species, the decurrent false aster (Boltonia decurrens), for application in pesticide risk assessment. Floods and competition with other plant species are known factors that drive the species' population dynamics and were included in the model approach. The authors use the model to compare the population-level effects of 5 toxicity surrogates applied to B. decurrens under varying environmental conditions. The model results suggest that the environmental conditions under which herbicide applications occur may have a higher impact on populations than organism-level sensitivities to an herbicide within a realistic range. Indirect effects may be as important as the direct effects of herbicide applications by shifting competition strength if competing species have different sensitivities to the herbicide. The model approach provides a case study for population-level risk assessments of listed species. Population-level effects of herbicides can be assessed in a realistic and species-specific context, and uncertainties can be addressed explicitly. The authors discuss how their approach can inform the future development and application of modeling for population-level risk assessments of listed species, and ecological risk assessment in general. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:480-491. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

Introduction of risk size in the determination of uncertainty factor UFL in risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Jinling; Lu, Yun; Velasquez, Natalia; Yu, Ruozhen; Hu, Hongying; Liu, Zhengtao; Meng, Wei

2012-09-01

The methodology for using uncertainty factors in health risk assessment has been developed for several decades. A default value is usually applied for the uncertainty factor UFL, which is used to extrapolate from LOAEL (lowest observed adverse effect level) to NAEL (no adverse effect level). Here, we have developed a new method that establishes a linear relationship between UFL and the additional risk level at LOAEL based on the dose-response information, which represents a very important factor that should be carefully considered. This linear formula makes it possible to select UFL properly in the additional risk range from 5.3% to 16.2%. Also the results remind us that the default value 10 may not be conservative enough when the additional risk level at LOAEL exceeds 16.2%. Furthermore, this novel method not only provides a flexible UFL instead of the traditional default value, but also can ensure a conservative estimation of the UFL with fewer errors, and avoid the benchmark response selection involved in the benchmark dose method. These advantages can improve the estimation of the extrapolation starting point in the risk assessment.

Cost-effectiveness of electronic training in domestic violence risk assessment: ODARA 101.

PubMed

Hilton, N Zoe; Ham, Elke

2015-03-01

The need for domestic violence training has increased with the development of evidence-based risk assessment tools, which must be scored correctly for valid application. Emerging research indicates that training in domestic violence risk assessment can increase scoring accuracy, but despite the increasing popularity of electronic training, it is not yet known whether it can be an effective method of risk assessment training. In the present study, 87 assessors from various professions had training in the Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment either face-to-face or using an electronic training program. The two conditions were equally effective, as measured by performance on a post-training skill acquisition test. Completion rates were 100% for face-to-face and 86% for electronic training, an improvement over a previously evaluated manual-only condition. The estimated per-trainee cost of electronic training was one third that of face-to-face training and expected to decrease. More rigorous evaluations of electronic training for risk assessment are recommended. © The Author(s) 2014.

Pollinator Risk Assessment: an International Workshop

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This 2011 Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) workshop brought together statisticians, bee biologists, modelers, beekeepers, risk assessors and risk managers to develop exposure measurement methods and identify pesticide effects.

The role of amino acid profiles in diabetes risk assessment.

PubMed

Nagao, Kenji; Yamakado, Minoru

2016-07-01

The concentrations of plasma-free amino acids, such as branched-chain amino acids and aromatic amino acids, are associated with visceral obesity, insulin resistance, and the future development of diabetes and cardiovascular diseases. This review discusses recent progress in the early assessment of the risk of developing diabetes and the reversal of altered plasma-free amino acids through interventions. Additionally, recent developments that have increased the utility of amino acid profiling technology are also described. Plasma-free amino acid alterations in the early stage of lifestyle-related diseases are because of obesity and insulin resistance-related inflammation, and these alterations are reversed by appropriate (nutritional, drug, or surgical) interventions that improve insulin sensitivity. For clinical applications, procedures for measuring amino acids are being standardized and automated. Plasma-free amino acid profiles have potential as biomarkers for both assessing diabetes risk and monitoring the effects of strategies designed to lower that risk. In addition, the methodology for measuring amino acids has been refined, with the goal of routine clinical application.

Molecular markers in bladder cancer: Novel research frontiers.

PubMed

Sanguedolce, Francesca; Cormio, Antonella; Bufo, Pantaleo; Carrieri, Giuseppe; Cormio, Luigi

2015-01-01

Bladder cancer (BC) is a heterogeneous disease encompassing distinct biologic features that lead to extremely different clinical behaviors. In the last 20 years, great efforts have been made to predict disease outcome and response to treatment by developing risk assessment calculators based on multiple standard clinical-pathological factors, as well as by testing several molecular markers. Unfortunately, risk assessment calculators alone fail to accurately assess a single patient's prognosis and response to different treatment options. Several molecular markers easily assessable by routine immunohistochemical techniques hold promise for becoming widely available and cost-effective tools for a more reliable risk assessment, but none have yet entered routine clinical practice. Current research is therefore moving towards (i) identifying novel molecular markers; (ii) testing old and new markers in homogeneous patients' populations receiving homogeneous treatments; (iii) generating a multimarker panel that could be easily, and thus routinely, used in clinical practice; (iv) developing novel risk assessment tools, possibly combining standard clinical-pathological factors with molecular markers. This review analyses the emerging body of literature concerning novel biomarkers, ranging from genetic changes to altered expression of a huge variety of molecules, potentially involved in BC outcome and response to treatment. Findings suggest that some of these indicators, such as serum circulating tumor cells and tissue mitochondrial DNA, seem to be easily assessable and provide reliable information. Other markers, such as the phosphoinositide-3-kinase (PI3K)/AKT (serine-threonine kinase)/mTOR (mammalian target of rapamycin) pathway and epigenetic changes in DNA methylation seem to not only have prognostic/predictive value but also, most importantly, represent valuable therapeutic targets. Finally, there is increasing evidence that the development of novel risk assessment tools combining standard clinical-pathological factors with molecular markers represents a major quest in managing this poorly predictable disease.

Mechanisms and Permanence of Sequestered Pb and As in Soils: Impact on Human Bioavailability

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-12-01

Human health risk assessment ICP-MS Inductively coupled plasma - mass spectrometry ICP-OES Inductively coupled plasma – optical emission spectrometry...the most common contaminants of concern exceeding risk criteria because soil ingestion is the primary human health risk driver at many DoD sites...development activities must address to realize the use of bioavailability in human health risk assessment (HHRA). Our proposal addressed three of the

Assessing and managing risk of terrorism to Virginia's interdependent transportation systems.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2004-01-01

This study expanded on the scope of two previous contract studies for the Virginia Transportation Research Council (VTRC) completed in March 2002 and April 2003. The objective was to develop a methodology for the assessment and management of the risk...

Estimating greenspace exposure and benefits for cumulative risk assessment applications

Treesearch

Rebecca Gernes; Richard Hertzberg; Margaret MacDonell; Glenn Rice; J. Michael Wright; Glennon Beresin; Travis Miller; Julia Africa; Geoffrey Donovan; J. Aaron Hipp; Perry Hystad; Laura Jackson; Michelle Kondo; Richard Mitchell; Mark Nieuwenhuijsen; Patrick Ryan; William Sullivan; Matilda Annerstedt. van den Bosch

2016-01-01

This document provides a summary of the technical meeting on greenspace and cumulative risk assessment (GS-CRA) convened May 4−5, 2015 in Cincinnati, OH, by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Office of Research and Development (ORD) National Center for Environmental Assessment (NCEA). This report highlights the presentations, discussions, and practical...

RESEARCH TOWARD THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BIOLOGICALLY BASED DOSE RESPONSE ASSESSMENT FOR INORGANIC ARSENIC CARCINOGENICITY: A PROGRESS REPORT

EPA Science Inventory

Cancer risk assessments for inorganic arsenic have been based on human epidemiological data, assuming a linear dose-response below the range of observation of tumors. Part of the reason for the continued use of the linear approach in arsenic risk assessments is the lack of an ad...

RiskScape Volcano: Development of a risk assessment tool for volcanic hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deligne, Natalia; King, Andrew; Jolly, Gill; Wilson, Grant; Wilson, Tom; Lindsay, Jan

2013-04-01

RiskScape is a multi-hazard risk assessment tool developed by GNS Science and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd. (NIWA) in New Zealand that models the risk and impact of various natural hazards on a given built environment. RiskScape has a modular structure: the hazard module models hazard exposure (e.g., ash thickness at a given location), the asset module catalogues assets (built environment, infrastructure, and people) and their attributes exposed to the hazard, and the vulnerability module models the consequences of asset exposure to the hazard. Hazards presently included in RiskScape are earthquakes, river floods, tsunamis, windstorms, and ash from volcanic eruptions (specifically from Ruapehu). Here we present our framework for incorporating other volcanic hazards (e.g., pyroclastic density currents, lava flows, lahars, ground deformation) into RiskScape along with our approach for assessing asset vulnerability. We also will discuss the challenges of evaluating risk for 'point source' (e.g., stratovolcanoes) vs 'diffuse' (e.g., volcanic fields) volcanism using Ruapehu and the Auckland volcanic field as examples. Once operational, RiskScape Volcano will be a valuable resource both in New Zealand and internationally as a practical tool for evaluating risk and also as an example for how to predict the consequences of volcanic eruptions on both rural and urban environments.

Novel public health risk assessment process developed to support syndromic surveillance for the 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games.

PubMed

Smith, Gillian E; Elliot, Alex J; Ibbotson, Sue; Morbey, Roger; Edeghere, Obaghe; Hawker, Jeremy; Catchpole, Mike; Endericks, Tina; Fisher, Paul; McCloskey, Brian

2017-09-01

Syndromic surveillance aims to provide early warning and real time estimates of the extent of incidents; and reassurance about lack of impact of mass gatherings. We describe a novel public health risk assessment process to ensure those leading the response to the 2012 Olympic Games were alerted to unusual activity that was of potential public health importance, and not inundated with multiple statistical 'alarms'. Statistical alarms were assessed to identify those which needed to result in 'alerts' as reliably as possible. There was no previously developed method for this. We identified factors that increased our concern about an alarm suggesting that an 'alert' should be made. Between 2 July and 12 September 2012, 350 674 signals were analysed resulting in 4118 statistical alarms. Using the risk assessment process, 122 'alerts' were communicated to Olympic incident directors. Use of a novel risk assessment process enabled the interpretation of large number of statistical alarms in a manageable way for the period of a sustained mass gathering. This risk assessment process guided the prioritization and could be readily adapted to other surveillance systems. The process, which is novel to our knowledge, continues as a legacy of the Games. © Crown copyright 2016.

Development of Relative Risk Model for Regional Groundwater Risk Assessment: A Case Study in the Lower Liaohe River Plain, China

PubMed Central

Li, Xianbo; Zuo, Rui; Teng, Yanguo; Wang, Jinsheng; Wang, Bin

2015-01-01

Increasing pressure on water supply worldwide, especially in arid areas, has resulted in groundwater overexploitation and contamination, and subsequent deterioration of the groundwater quality and threats to public health. Environmental risk assessment of regional groundwater is an important tool for groundwater protection. This study presents a new approach for assessing the environmental risk assessment of regional groundwater. It was carried out with a relative risk model (RRM) coupled with a series of indices, such as a groundwater vulnerability index, which includes receptor analysis, risk source analysis, risk exposure and hazard analysis, risk characterization, and management of groundwater. The risk map is a product of the probability of environmental contamination and impact. The reliability of the RRM was verified using Monte Carlo analysis. This approach was applied to the lower Liaohe River Plain (LLRP), northeastern China, which covers 23604 km2. A spatial analysis tool within GIS which was used to interpolate and manipulate the data to develop environmental risk maps of regional groundwater, divided the level of risk from high to low into five ranks (V, IV, III, II, I). The results indicate that areas of relative risk rank (RRR) V cover 2324 km2, covering 9.8% of the area; RRR IV covers 3986 km2, accounting for 16.9% of the area. It is a new and appropriate method for regional groundwater resource management and land use planning, and is a rapid and effective tool for improving strategic decision making to protect groundwater and reduce environmental risk. PMID:26020518

Risk assessment of urban flood disaster in Jingdezhen City based on analytic hierarchy process and geographic information system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, D. C.; Huang, J.; Wang, H. M.; Wang, Z. Q.; Wang, W. Q.

2017-08-01

The research of urban flood risk assessment and management are of great academic and practical importance, which has become a widespread concern throughout the world. It’s significant to understand the spatial-temporal distribution of the flood risk before making the risk response measures. In this study, the urban region of Jingdezhen City is selected as the study area. The assessment indicators are selected from four aspects: disaster-causing factors, disaster-pregnant environment, disaster-bearing body and the prevention and mitigation ability, by consideration of the formation process of urban flood risk. And then, a small-scale flood disaster risk assessment model is developed based on Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) and Geographic Information System(GIS), and the spatial-temporal distribution of flood risk in Jingdezhen City is analysed. The results show that the risk decreases gradually from the centre line of Changjiang River to the surrounding, and the areas of high flood disaster risk is decreasing from 2010 to 2013 while the risk areas are more concentred. The flood risk of the areas along the Changjiang River is the largest, followed by the low-lying areas in Changjiang District. And the risk is also large in Zhushan District where the population, the industries and commerce are concentrated. The flood risk in the western part of Changjiang District and the north-eastern part of the study area is relatively low. The results can provide scientific support for flood control construction and land development planning in Jingdezhen City.

Documentary analysis of risk-assessment and safety-planning policies and tools in a mental health context.

PubMed

Higgins, Agnes; Doyle, Louise; Morrissey, Jean; Downes, Carmel; Gill, Ailish; Bailey, Sive

2016-08-01

Despite the articulated need for policies and processes to guide risk assessment and safety planning, limited guidance exists on the processes or procedures to be used to develop such policies, and there is no body of research that examines the quality or content of the risk-management policies developed. The aim of the present study was to analyse the policies of risk and safety management used to guide mental health nursing practice in Ireland. A documentary analysis was performed on 123 documents received from 22 of the 23 directors of nursing contacted. Findings from the analysis revealed a wide variation in how risk, risk assessment, and risk management were defined. Emphasis within the risk documentation submitted was on risk related to self and others, with minimal attention paid to other types of risks. In addition, there was limited evidence of recovery-focused approaches to positive risk taking that involved service users and their families within the risk-related documentation. Many of the risk-assessment tools had not been validated, and lacked consistency or guidance in relation to how they were to be used or applied. The tick-box approach and absence of space for commentary within documentation have the potential to impact severely on the quality of information collected and documented, and subsequent clinical decision-making. Managers, and those tasked with ensuring safety and quality, need to ensure that policies and processes are, where possible, informed by best evidence and are in line with national mental health policy on recovery. © 2016 Australian College of Mental Health Nurses Inc.

Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) user manual (version 2006.01.18)

Treesearch

Peter R. Robichaud; William J. Elliot; Fredrick B. Pierson; David E. Hall; Corey A. Moffet; Louise E. Ashmun

2007-01-01

The decision of where, when, and how to apply the most effective post-fire erosion mitigation treatments requires land managers to assess the risk of damaging runoff and erosion events occurring after a fire. To aid in this assessment, the Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) was developed. This user manual describes the input parameters, input interface, model...

Promoting Service User Inclusion in Risk Assessment and Management: A Pilot Project Developing a Human Rights-Based Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Greenhill, Beth; Whitehead, Richard

2011-01-01

Recent reports highlight the extent to which many people with learning disabilities are not afforded access to their basic human rights. In addition, traditional approaches to risk management often focus on professional assessments of risks and challenging behaviour and exclude service user perspectives. In this paper, we outline what we believe…

Integrated wildfire risk assessment: Framework development and application on the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, USA

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; Joe Scott; Don Helmbrecht; Dave E. Calkin

2013-01-01

The financial, socioeconomic, and ecological impacts of wildfire continue to challenge federal land management agencies in the United States. In recent years, policymakers and managers have increasingly turned to the field of risk analysis to better manage wildfires and to mitigate losses to highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs). Assessing wildfire risk entails...

Association of Risk Estimates of Three Different Cardiovascular Risk Assessment Tools with Carotid Intima Media Thickness in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes.

PubMed

Herath, Herath Mudiyanselage Meththananda; Weerarathna, Thilak Priyantha; Dulanjalee, Ranasinghe Bethmi Arachige Thilini; Jayawardana, Madumekala Rupasinghe; Edirisingha, Udara Priyadarshani; Rathnayake, Madushanka

2016-07-01

Risk assessment tools used to calculate the Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) risk such as the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes study (UKPDS) risk engine and the World Health Organization (WHO) risk score have not been tested on their ability to detect subclinical atherosclerosis in most developing countries. To study the association between the calculated CVD risk scores using each of these tools and Carotid Intima Medial Thickness (CIMT), a surrogate marker of atherosclerosis, in a group of patients with Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) in Sri Lanka. We calculated CVD risk scores of 68 randomly selected patients with T2DM with no history or symptoms of CVD and measured their CIMT using B-mode ultrasonography (USS). Carotid USS was considered positive when the maximum carotid IMT was 0.9mm or when arteriosclerotic plaques were detected. The 10-year CVD risk was calculated using the FRS, the UKPDS risk engine and the WHO risk score. Pearson correlation was used to study the association between CVD risk scores with CIMT. Of the 68 patients studied, 50% were males and their mean age (SD) was 56.9 (±9.6) years. The mean age at onset and duration of diabetes were 44.3(±9.1) and 12.2(±7.6) years respectively. Of the scoring methods, UKPDS tool had weak, but significantly positive (r = 0.26, p < 0.05) and FRS had positive but not significant association (r= 0. 21) with CIMT. There was a negative association between CIMT and WHO risk score (r= - 0.07). Of the three CVD risk assessment tools, both UKPDS risk engine and FRS have almost equal ability (former being marginally superior) in predicting underlying atherosclerotic vascular disease in patients with T2DM. Negative association of the WHO risk score with CIMT argues against its utility for CVD screening. These findings highlight the need for developing more sensitive and reliable CVD risk assessment tools for developing countries.

Association of Risk Estimates of Three Different Cardiovascular Risk Assessment Tools with Carotid Intima Media Thickness in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes

PubMed Central

Weerarathna, Thilak Priyantha; Dulanjalee, Ranasinghe Bethmi Arachige Thilini; Jayawardana, Madumekala Rupasinghe; Edirisingha, Udara Priyadarshani; Rathnayake, Madushanka

2016-01-01

Introduction Risk assessment tools used to calculate the Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) risk such as the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes study (UKPDS) risk engine and the World Health Organization (WHO) risk score have not been tested on their ability to detect subclinical atherosclerosis in most developing countries. Aim To study the association between the calculated CVD risk scores using each of these tools and Carotid Intima Medial Thickness (CIMT), a surrogate marker of atherosclerosis, in a group of patients with Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) in Sri Lanka. Materials and Methods We calculated CVD risk scores of 68 randomly selected patients with T2DM with no history or symptoms of CVD and measured their CIMT using B-mode ultrasonography (USS). Carotid USS was considered positive when the maximum carotid IMT was 0.9mm or when arteriosclerotic plaques were detected. The 10-year CVD risk was calculated using the FRS, the UKPDS risk engine and the WHO risk score. Pearson correlation was used to study the association between CVD risk scores with CIMT. Results Of the 68 patients studied, 50% were males and their mean age (SD) was 56.9 (±9.6) years. The mean age at onset and duration of diabetes were 44.3(±9.1) and 12.2(±7.6) years respectively. Of the scoring methods, UKPDS tool had weak, but significantly positive (r = 0.26, p < 0.05) and FRS had positive but not significant association (r= 0. 21) with CIMT. There was a negative association between CIMT and WHO risk score (r= - 0.07). Conclusion Of the three CVD risk assessment tools, both UKPDS risk engine and FRS have almost equal ability (former being marginally superior) in predicting underlying atherosclerotic vascular disease in patients with T2DM. Negative association of the WHO risk score with CIMT argues against its utility for CVD screening. These findings highlight the need for developing more sensitive and reliable CVD risk assessment tools for developing countries. PMID:27630880

Risk, Uncertainty and Precaution in Science: The Threshold of the Toxicological Concern Approach in Food Toxicology.

PubMed

Bschir, Karim

2017-04-01

Environmental risk assessment is often affected by severe uncertainty. The frequently invoked precautionary principle helps to guide risk assessment and decision-making in the face of scientific uncertainty. In many contexts, however, uncertainties play a role not only in the application of scientific models but also in their development. Building on recent literature in the philosophy of science, this paper argues that precaution should be exercised at the stage when tools for risk assessment are developed as well as when they are used to inform decision-making. The relevance and consequences of this claim are discussed in the context of the threshold of the toxicological concern approach in food toxicology. I conclude that the approach does not meet the standards of an epistemic version of the precautionary principle.