Estimating survival rates with time series of standing age‐structure data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Udevitz, Mark S.; Gogan, Peter J.

2012-01-01

It has long been recognized that age‐structure data contain useful information for assessing the status and dynamics of wildlife populations. For example, age‐specific survival rates can be estimated with just a single sample from the age distribution of a stable, stationary population. For a population that is not stable, age‐specific survival rates can be estimated using techniques such as inverse methods that combine time series of age‐structure data with other demographic data. However, estimation of survival rates using these methods typically requires numerical optimization, a relatively long time series of data, and smoothing or other constraints to provide useful estimates. We developed general models for possibly unstable populations that combine time series of age‐structure data with other demographic data to provide explicit maximum likelihood estimators of age‐specific survival rates with as few as two years of data. As an example, we applied these methods to estimate survival rates for female bison (Bison bison) in Yellowstone National Park, USA. This approach provides a simple tool for monitoring survival rates based on age‐structure data.

Proportional exponentiated link transformed hazards (ELTH) models for discrete time survival data with application

PubMed Central

Joeng, Hee-Koung; Chen, Ming-Hui; Kang, Sangwook

2015-01-01

Discrete survival data are routinely encountered in many fields of study including behavior science, economics, epidemiology, medicine, and social science. In this paper, we develop a class of proportional exponentiated link transformed hazards (ELTH) models. We carry out a detailed examination of the role of links in fitting discrete survival data and estimating regression coefficients. Several interesting results are established regarding the choice of links and baseline hazards. We also characterize the conditions for improper survival functions and the conditions for existence of the maximum likelihood estimates under the proposed ELTH models. An extensive simulation study is conducted to examine the empirical performance of the parameter estimates under the Cox proportional hazards model by treating discrete survival times as continuous survival times, and the model comparison criteria, AIC and BIC, in determining links and baseline hazards. A SEER breast cancer dataset is analyzed in details to further demonstrate the proposed methodology. PMID:25772374

Inactivation kinetics of Vibrio vulnificus in phosphate-buffered saline at different freezing and storage temperatures and times.

PubMed

Seminario, Diana M; Balaban, Murat O; Rodrick, Gary

2011-03-01

Vibrio vulnificus (Vv) is a pathogen that can be found in raw oysters. Freezing can reduce Vv and increase the shelf life of oysters. The objective of this study was to develop predictive inactivation kinetic models for pure cultures of Vv at different frozen storage temperatures and times. Vv was diluted in phosphate-buffered saline (PBS) to obtain about 10(7) CFU/mL. Samples were frozen at -10, -35, and -80 °C (different freezing rates), and stored at different temperatures. Survival of Vv was followed after freezing and storage at -10 °C (0, 3, 6, and 9 d) and at -35 and -80 °C (every week for 6 wk). For every treatment, time-temperature data was obtained using thermocouples in blank vials. Predictive models were developed using first-order, Weibull and Peleg inactivation kinetics. Different freezing temperatures did not significantly (α = 0.05) affect survival of Vv immediately after freezing. The combined effect of freezing and 1 wk frozen storage resulted in 1.5, 2.6, and 4.9 log10 reductions for samples stored at -80, -35, and -10 °C, respectively. Storage temperature was the critical parameter in survival of Vv. A modified Weibull model successfully predicted Vv survival during frozen storage: log10 Nt = log 10No - 1.22 - ([t/10{-1.163-0.0466T}][0.00025T(2) + 0.049325]). N(o) and N(t) are initial and time t (d) survival counts, T is frozen storage temperature, Celsius degree. Vibrio vulnificus can be inactivated by freezing. Models to predict survival of V. vulnificus at different freezing temperatures and times were developed. This is the first step towards the prediction of V. vulnificus related safety of frozen oysters.

Presidential Survival in Tough Times.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bowen, Raymond C.

Surviving the position of college president requires the development of a presidential survival kit filled with idiosyncratic items not normally associated with formal educational training. Strength, agility, control, and the ability to improvise are some of the talents required of a college president. In addition, the longevity and success of a…

Modelling lecturer performance index of private university in Tulungagung by using survival analysis with multivariate adaptive regression spline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasyim, M.; Prastyo, D. D.

2018-03-01

Survival analysis performs relationship between independent variables and survival time as dependent variable. In fact, not all survival data can be recorded completely by any reasons. In such situation, the data is called censored data. Moreover, several model for survival analysis requires assumptions. One of the approaches in survival analysis is nonparametric that gives more relax assumption. In this research, the nonparametric approach that is employed is Multivariate Regression Adaptive Spline (MARS). This study is aimed to measure the performance of private university’s lecturer. The survival time in this study is duration needed by lecturer to obtain their professional certificate. The results show that research activities is a significant factor along with developing courses material, good publication in international or national journal, and activities in research collaboration.

Accelerating Child Survival and Development in Dark Times.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grant, James P.

Measures were proposed that would enable UNICEF, in association with others and despite prevailing difficult economic circumstances, to more effectively bring well-being and hope to hundreds of millions of children. Specific proposals were designed to help most countries accelerate child survival and development. Most particularly, it was…

Influence of salinity on the larval development of the fiddler crab Uca vocator (Ocypodidae) as an indicator of ontogenetic migration towards offshore waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Jesus de Brito Simith, Darlan; de Souza, Adelson Silva; Maciel, Cristiana Ramalho; Abrunhosa, Fernando Araújo; Diele, Karen

2012-03-01

Larvae of many marine decapod crustaceans are released in unpredictable habitats with strong salinity fluctuations during the breeding season. In an experimental laboratory study, we investigated the influence of seven different salinities (0, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30) on the survival and development time of fiddler crab zoea larvae, Uca vocator, from northern Brazilian mangroves. The species reproduces during the rainy season when estuarine salinity strongly fluctuates and often reaches values below 10 and even 5. Salinity significantly affected the survival rate and development period from hatching to megalopa, while the number of zoeal stages remained constant. In salinities 0 and 5, no larvae reached the second zoeal stage, but they managed to survive for up to 3 (average of 2.3 days) and 7 days (average of 5.1 days), respectively. From salinity 10 onwards, the larvae developed to the megalopal stage. However, the survival rate was significantly lower (5-15%) and development took more time (average of 13.5 days) in salinity 10 than in the remaining salinities (15-30). In the latter, survival ranged from 80-95% and development took 10-11 days. Given the 100% larval mortality in extremely low salinities and their increased survival in intermediate and higher salinities, we conclude that U. vocator has a larval `export' strategy with its larvae developing in offshore waters where salinity conditions are more stable and higher than in mangrove estuaries. Thus, by means of ontogenetic migration, osmotic stress and resulting mortality in estuarine waters can be avoided.

Prognosis for dogs with stage III osteosarcoma following treatment with amputation and chemotherapy with and without metastasectomy.

PubMed

Turner, Hailey; Séguin, Bernard; Worley, Deanna R; Ehrhart, Nicole P; Lafferty, Mary H; Withrow, Stephen J; Selmic, Laura E

2017-12-01

OBJECTIVE To determine survival times of selected dogs with metastatic (stage III) osteosarcoma, whether disease-free interval (DFI) was associated with survival time after diagnosis of stage III disease (ie, stage III survival time), and whether a survival benefit of metastasectomy existed. DESIGN Retrospective case series with nested cohort study. ANIMALS 194 client-owned dogs treated for histologically confirmed appendicular osteosarcoma from 1997 through 2009. PROCEDURES Dogs were included if they had stage I or II osteosarcoma at the time of initial evaluation, had amputation of the affected appendage and ≥ 1 dose of chemotherapy afterward, and developed metastasis within the follow-up period or prior to death. Data collected from the medical records included signalment, primary tumor location, clinical and laboratory findings, whether metastasectomy was performed, and outcome. Various factors were examined for associations with outcome. RESULTS Dogs that received no treatment for the metastasis had a median survival time between 49 and 57 days after diagnosis of stage III osteosarcoma. Duration of the preceding DFI had no association with this period. Metastasectomy alone was associated with a longer median stage III survival time (232 days) than no metastasectomy (49 days). Among all dogs identified as qualifying for pulmonary metastasectomy on the basis of < 3 pulmonary nodules visible on thoracic radiographs and a DFI > 275 days (n = 21), a survival advantage was also identified for those that actually received pulmonary metastasectomy (6). CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE Preceding DFI had no influence on survival time of dogs with stage III osteosarcoma. Metastasectomy was associated with an increase in survival time for selected dogs.

New agreement measures based on survival processes

PubMed Central

Guo, Ying; Li, Ruosha; Peng, Limin; Manatunga, Amita K.

2013-01-01

Summary The need to assess agreement arises in many scenarios in biomedical sciences when measurements were taken by different methods on the same subjects. When the endpoints are survival outcomes, the study of agreement becomes more challenging given the special characteristics of time-to-event data. In this paper, we propose a new framework for assessing agreement based on survival processes that can be viewed as a natural representation of time-to-event outcomes. Our new agreement measure is formulated as the chance-corrected concordance between survival processes. It provides a new perspective for studying the relationship between correlated survival outcomes and offers an appealing interpretation as the agreement between survival times on the absolute distance scale. We provide a multivariate extension of the proposed agreement measure for multiple methods. Furthermore, the new framework enables a natural extension to evaluate time-dependent agreement structure. We develop nonparametric estimation of the proposed new agreement measures. Our estimators are shown to be strongly consistent and asymptotically normal. We evaluate the performance of the proposed estimators through simulation studies and then illustrate the methods using a prostate cancer data example. PMID:23844617

Geographic disparities in colorectal cancer survival

PubMed Central

Henry, Kevin A; Niu, Xiaoling; Boscoe, Francis P

2009-01-01

Background Examining geographic variation in cancer patient survival can help identify important prognostic factors that are linked by geography and generate hypotheses about the underlying causes of survival disparities. In this study, we apply a recently developed spatial scan statistic method, designed for time-to-event data, to determine whether colorectal cancer (CRC) patient survival varies by place of residence after adjusting survival times for several prognostic factors. Methods Using data from a population-based, statewide cancer registry, we examined a cohort of 25,040 men and women from New Jersey who were newly diagnosed with local or regional stage colorectal cancer from 1996 through 2003 and followed to the end of 2006. Survival times were adjusted for significant prognostic factors (sex, age, stage at diagnosis, race/ethnicity and census tract socioeconomic deprivation) and evaluated using a spatial scan statistic to identify places where CRC survival was significantly longer or shorter than the statewide experience. Results Age, sex and stage adjusted survival times revealed several areas in the northern part of the state where CRC survival was significantly different than expected. The shortest and longest survival areas had an adjusted 5-year survival rate of 73.1% (95% CI 71.5, 74.9) and 88.3% (95% CI 85.4, 91.3) respectively, compared with the state average of 80.0% (95% CI 79.4, 80.5). Analysis of survival times adjusted for age, sex and stage as well as race/ethnicity and area socioeconomic deprivation attenuated the risk of death from CRC in several areas, but survival disparities persisted. Conclusion The results suggest that in areas where additional adjustments for race/ethnicity and area socioeconomic deprivation changed the geographic survival patterns and reduced the risk of death from CRC, the adjustment factors may be contributing causes of the disparities. Further studies should focus on specific and modifiable individual and neighborhood factors in the high risk areas that may affect a person's chance of surviving cancer. PMID:19627576

Prevalence of hypertension and type 2 diabetes mellitus in patients with colorectal cancer and their median survival time: A cohort study.

PubMed

Ahmadi, Ali; Mobasheri, Mahmoud; Hashemi-Nazari, Seyed Saeed; Baradaran, Azar; Choobini, Zahra Molavi

2014-09-01

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) and hypertension are worldwide epidemic. Association between DM and colon cancer was obtained in previous studies. Prevalence of DM and hypertension in the patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) has not been reported in Iran. The present study was aimed to investigate the prevalence of hypertension and type 2 DM and their effect on median survival time in patients with CRC. Overall, 2570 individual-year follow-ups were conducted for 1127 patients with CRC. For the diagnosis of type 2 DM, fasting blood sugar test and glycosylated hemoglobin test were used and for hypertension, blood pressure was measured in two turns. The descriptive indices were calculated, and the mean and median survival from CRC diagnosis time was calculated using survival analysis and a comparison among survival times was done through log-rank test. Stata software 12 (Stata Corp. 2011. Stata Statistical Software: Release 12. College Station, TX: Stata Corp LP) was used for data analysis. The prevalence of hypertension and type 2 DM in the patients with CRC was respectively 13.38% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 11.1-15.8) and 8.69% (95% CI: 7-10.7). Median survival time in patients with hypertension and DM were 8.52 and 4.9 years. According to log-rank test, no significant difference was observed between the survival time of CRC patients suffering from hypertension and diabetes type 2. The obtained findings in this study indicate that survival time in patients with type 2 DM less than hypertension but two metabolic diseases have the same effect on survival rate of the patients with CRC. Understanding the risk factors for CRC may guide the development of strategies targeted toward its prevention.

Modeling Rabbit Responses to Single and Multiple Aerosol ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Journal Article Survival models are developed here to predict response and time-to-response for mortality in rabbits following exposures to single or multiple aerosol doses of Bacillus anthracis spores. Hazard function models were developed for a multiple dose dataset to predict the probability of death through specifying dose-response functions and the time between exposure and the time-to-death (TTD). Among the models developed, the best-fitting survival model (baseline model) has an exponential dose-response model with a Weibull TTD distribution. Alternative models assessed employ different underlying dose-response functions and use the assumption that, in a multiple dose scenario, earlier doses affect the hazard functions of each subsequent dose. In addition, published mechanistic models are analyzed and compared with models developed in this paper. None of the alternative models that were assessed provided a statistically significant improvement in fit over the baseline model. The general approach utilizes simple empirical data analysis to develop parsimonious models with limited reliance on mechanistic assumptions. The baseline model predicts TTDs consistent with reported results from three independent high-dose rabbit datasets. More accurate survival models depend upon future development of dose-response datasets specifically designed to assess potential multiple dose effects on response and time-to-response. The process used in this paper to dev

A survival tree method for the analysis of discrete event times in clinical and epidemiological studies.

PubMed

Schmid, Matthias; Küchenhoff, Helmut; Hoerauf, Achim; Tutz, Gerhard

2016-02-28

Survival trees are a popular alternative to parametric survival modeling when there are interactions between the predictor variables or when the aim is to stratify patients into prognostic subgroups. A limitation of classical survival tree methodology is that most algorithms for tree construction are designed for continuous outcome variables. Hence, classical methods might not be appropriate if failure time data are measured on a discrete time scale (as is often the case in longitudinal studies where data are collected, e.g., quarterly or yearly). To address this issue, we develop a method for discrete survival tree construction. The proposed technique is based on the result that the likelihood of a discrete survival model is equivalent to the likelihood of a regression model for binary outcome data. Hence, we modify tree construction methods for binary outcomes such that they result in optimized partitions for the estimation of discrete hazard functions. By applying the proposed method to data from a randomized trial in patients with filarial lymphedema, we demonstrate how discrete survival trees can be used to identify clinically relevant patient groups with similar survival behavior. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

On the relationship between tumour growth rate and survival in non-small cell lung cancer.

PubMed

Mistry, Hitesh B

2017-01-01

A recurrent question within oncology drug development is predicting phase III outcome for a new treatment using early clinical data. One approach to tackle this problem has been to derive metrics from mathematical models that describe tumour size dynamics termed re-growth rate and time to tumour re-growth. They have shown to be strong predictors of overall survival in numerous studies but there is debate about how these metrics are derived and if they are more predictive than empirical end-points. This work explores the issues raised in using model-derived metric as predictors for survival analyses. Re-growth rate and time to tumour re-growth were calculated for three large clinical studies by forward and reverse alignment. The latter involves re-aligning patients to their time of progression. Hence, it accounts for the time taken to estimate re-growth rate and time to tumour re-growth but also assesses if these predictors correlate to survival from the time of progression. I found that neither re-growth rate nor time to tumour re-growth correlated to survival using reverse alignment. This suggests that the dynamics of tumours up until disease progression has no relationship to survival post progression. For prediction of a phase III trial I found the metrics performed no better than empirical end-points. These results highlight that care must be taken when relating dynamics of tumour imaging to survival and that bench-marking new approaches to existing ones is essential.

Survival of high-risk pediatric neuroblastoma patients in a developing country.

PubMed

Easton, Joseph C; Gomez, Sergio; Asdahl, Peter H; Conner, J Michael; Fynn, Alcira B; Ruiz, Claudia; Ojha, Rohit P

2016-09-01

Little information is available about survival of high-risk pediatric neuroblastoma patients in developing countries. We aimed to assess survival among high-risk pediatric neuroblastoma patients in La Plata, Argentina. Individuals eligible for our cohort were aged <20 yr when diagnosed with high-risk neuroblastoma and received cancer-directed therapy including stem cell transplantation at Hospital de Niños Sor Maria Ludovica between February 1999 and February 2015. We estimated overall survival probabilities using an extended Kaplan-Meier approach. Our study population comprised 39 high-risk neuroblastoma patients, of whom 39% were aged >4 yr at diagnosis, 54% were male, and 62% had adrenal neuroblastoma. We observed 18 deaths, and the median survival time of our study population was 1.7 yr. The five-yr overall survival probability was 24% (95% CL: 10%, 41%). In contrast, five-yr survival of high-risk neuroblastoma patients ranges between 23% and 76% in developed countries. Survival among high-risk neuroblastoma patients is generally poor regardless of geographic location, but our results illustrate dramatically worse survival for patients in a developing country. We speculate that the observed survival differences could be attenuated or eliminated with improvements in treatment and supportive care, but addressing these issues will require creative solutions because of resource limitations. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Demographic response of Louisiana Waterthrush, a stream obligate songbird of conservation concern, to shale gas development

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frantz, Mack W.; Wood, Petra B.; Sheehan, James; George, Gregory

2018-01-01

Shale gas development continues to outpace the implementation of best management practices for wildlife affected by development. We examined demographic responses of the Louisiana Waterthrush (Parkesia motacilla) to shale gas development during 2009–2011 and 2013–2015 in a predominantly forested landscape in West Virginia, USA. Forest cover across the study area decreased from 95% in 2008 to 91% in 2015, while the area affected by shale gas development increased from 0.4% to 3.9%. We quantified nest survival and productivity, a source–sink threshold, riparian habitat quality, territory density, and territory length by monitoring 58.1 km of forested headwater streams (n = 14 streams). Across years, we saw annual variability in nest survival, with a general declining trend over time. Of 11 a priori models tested to explain nest survival (n = 280 nests), 4 models that included temporal, habitat, and shale gas covariates were supported, and 2 of these models accounted for most of the variation in daily nest survival rate. After accounting for temporal effects (rainfall, nest age, and time within season), shale gas development had negative effects on nest survival. Population-level nest productivity declined and individual productivity was lower in areas disturbed by shale gas development than in undisturbed areas, and a source–sink threshold suggested that disturbed areas were more at risk of being sink habitat. Riparian habitat quality scores, as measured by a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency index and a waterthrush-specific habitat suitability index, differed by year and were negatively related to the amount of each territory disturbed by shale gas development. Territory density was not related to the amount of shale gas disturbance, but decreased over time as territory lengths increased. Overall, our results suggest a decline in waterthrush site quality as shale gas development increases, despite relatively small site-wide forest loss.

Towards optimizing the sequence of bevacizumab and nitrosoureas in recurrent malignant glioma.

PubMed

Wiestler, Benedikt; Radbruch, Alexander; Osswald, Matthias; Combs, Stephanie E; Jungk, Christine; Winkler, Frank; Bendszus, Martin; Unterberg, Andreas; Platten, Michael; Wick, Wolfgang; Wick, Antje

2014-03-01

Studies on the monoclonal VEGF-A antibody bevacizumab gave raise to questions regarding the lack of an overall survival benefit, the optimal timing in the disease course and potential combination and salvage therapies. We retrospectively assessed survival, radiological progression type on bevacizumab and efficacy of salvage therapies in 42 patients with recurrent malignant gliomas who received bevacizumab and nitrosourea sequentially. 15 patients received bevacizumab followed by nitrosourea at progression and 27 patients vice versa. Time to treatment failure, defined as time from initiation of one to failure of the other treatment, was similar in both groups (9.6 vs. 9.2 months, log rank p = 0.19). Progression-free survival on nitrosoureas was comparable in both groups, while progression-free survival on bevacizumab was longer in the group receiving bevacizumab first (5.3 vs. 4.1 months, log rank p = 0.03). Survival times were similar for patients with grade III (n = 9) and grade IV (n = 33) tumors. Progression-free survival on bevacizumab for patients developing contrast-enhancing T1 progression was longer than for patients who displayed a non-enhancing T2 progression. However, post-progression survival times after bevacizumab failure were not different. Earlier treatment with bevacizumab was not associated with better outcome in this series. The fact that earlier as compared to later bevacizumab treatment does not result in a different time to treatment failure highlights the challenge for first-line or recurrence trials with bevacizumab to demonstrate an overall survival benefit if crossover of bevacizumab-naïve patients after progression occurs.

Geographical variation in cancer survival in England, 1991–2006: an analysis by Cancer Network

PubMed Central

Quaresma, Manuela; Coleman, Michel P; Gordon, Emma; Forman, David; Rachet, Bernard

2011-01-01

Background Reducing geographical inequalities in cancer survival in England was a key aim of the Calman–Hine Report (1995) and the NHS Cancer Plan (2000). This study assesses whether geographical inequalities changed following these policy developments by analysing the trend in 1-year relative survival in the 28 cancer networks of England. Methods Population-based age-standardised relative survival at 1 year is estimated for 1.4 million patients diagnosed with cancer of the oesophagus, stomach, colon, lung, breast (women) or cervix in England during 1991–2006 and followed up to 2007. Regional and deprivation-specific life tables are built to adjust survival estimates for differences in background mortality. Analysis is divided into three calendar periods: 1991–5, 1996–2000 and 2001–6. Funnel plots are used to assess geographical variation in survival over time. Results One-year relative survival improved for all cancers except cervical cancer. There was a wide geographical variation in survival with generally lower estimates in northern England. This north–south divide became less marked over time, although the overall number of cancer networks that were lower outliers compared with the England value remained stable. Breast cancer was the only cancer for which there was a marked reduction in geographical inequality in survival over time. Conclusion Policy changes over the past two decades coincided with improved relative survival, without an increase in geographical variation. The north–south divide in relative survival became less pronounced over time but geographical inequalities persist. The reduction in geographical inequality in breast cancer survival may be followed by a similar trend for other cancers, provided government recommendations are implemented similarly. PMID:21321064

Distinguishing suitable biotypes of Dactylopius tomentosus (Hemiptera: Dactylopiidae) for biological control of Cylindropuntia fulgida var. fulgida (Caryophyllales: Cactaceae) in South Africa.

PubMed

Mathenge, C W; Holford, P; Hoffmann, J H; Zimmermann, H G; Spooner-Hart, R; Beattie, G A C

2009-12-01

Cylindropuntia fulgida (Engelmann) F.M. Knuth var. fulgida (Engelmann) F.M. Knuth (Cff) (Caryophyllales: Cactaceae) is native to Mexico and Arizona and was introduced into South Africa for ornamental purposes. It subsequently became highly invasive, necessitating control. The cochineal insect, Dactylopius tomentosus (Lamarck) (Hemiptera: Dactylopiidae), was selected as a potential biological control agent based on its restricted host range among Cylindropuntia species and previous success in controlling C. imbricata (DC.) F. Knuth (Ci). Eight D. tomentosus provenances (Cholla, Cholla E, Fulgida, Mamillata, Imbricata, Tunicata U, Tunicata V and Rosea) from Cylindropuntia species in their native ranges were reared on Cff, whilst Cholla and Imbricata were also reared on Ci. Large differences were found in the development and survival of crawlers, and in the reproductive capacity of females. Three subjective categories of provenance interaction with host plants were identified based on a fitness index (FI) calculated from data relating to crawler survival, female development time and fecundity: (i) thriving (FI > or = 1) - insects had shorter developmental times, high crawler survival and highly fecund females (Cholla); (ii) surviving (FI<1 but >0) - insects had extended development times, low crawler survival and low fecundity (Imbricata, Fulgida and Mamillata); and (iii) dying (FI = 0) - insects died before or at the second instar (Rosea, Tunicata U and Tunicata V). Cholla, therefore, is highly suitable for biological control of Cff in South Africa. In addition, Cholla thrived on Cff but only survived on Ci whilst, in contrast, Imbricata thrived on Ci but only survived on Cff. This differential ability of provenances to thrive or survive on different host plants demonstrated that host adapted biotypes of D. tomentosus exist; therefore, biotypes should be taken into account when considering this species as a biological control agent of cactus weeds.

Predicting survival time in noncurative patients with advanced cancer: a prospective study in China.

PubMed

Cui, Jing; Zhou, Lingjun; Wee, B; Shen, Fengping; Ma, Xiuqiang; Zhao, Jijun

2014-05-01

Accurate prediction of prognosis for cancer patients is important for good clinical decision making in therapeutic and care strategies. The application of prognostic tools and indicators could improve prediction accuracy. This study aimed to develop a new prognostic scale to predict survival time of advanced cancer patients in China. We prospectively collected items that we anticipated might influence survival time of advanced cancer patients. Participants were recruited from 12 hospitals in Shanghai, China. We collected data including demographic information, clinical symptoms and signs, and biochemical test results. Log-rank tests, Cox regression, and linear regression were performed to develop a prognostic scale. Three hundred twenty patients with advanced cancer were recruited. Fourteen prognostic factors were included in the prognostic scale: Karnofsky Performance Scale (KPS) score, pain, ascites, hydrothorax, edema, delirium, cachexia, white blood cell (WBC) count, hemoglobin, sodium, total bilirubin, direct bilirubin, aspartate aminotransferase (AST), and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) values. The score was calculated by summing the partial scores, ranging from 0 to 30. When using the cutoff points of 7-day, 30-day, 90-day, and 180-day survival time, the scores were calculated as 12, 10, 8, and 6, respectively. We propose a new prognostic scale including KPS, pain, ascites, hydrothorax, edema, delirium, cachexia, WBC count, hemoglobin, sodium, total bilirubin, direct bilirubin, AST, and ALP values, which may help guide physicians in predicting the likely survival time of cancer patients more accurately. More studies are needed to validate this scale in the future.

Probability of survival during accidental immersion in cold water.

PubMed

Wissler, Eugene H

2003-01-01

Estimating the probability of survival during accidental immersion in cold water presents formidable challenges for both theoreticians and empirics. A number of theoretical models have been developed assuming that death occurs when the central body temperature, computed using a mathematical model, falls to a certain level. This paper describes a different theoretical approach to estimating the probability of survival. The human thermal model developed by Wissler is used to compute the central temperature during immersion in cold water. Simultaneously, a survival probability function is computed by solving a differential equation that defines how the probability of survival decreases with increasing time. The survival equation assumes that the probability of occurrence of a fatal event increases as the victim's central temperature decreases. Generally accepted views of the medical consequences of hypothermia and published reports of various accidents provide information useful for defining a "fatality function" that increases exponentially with decreasing central temperature. The particular function suggested in this paper yields a relationship between immersion time for 10% probability of survival and water temperature that agrees very well with Molnar's empirical observations based on World War II data. The method presented in this paper circumvents a serious difficulty with most previous models--that one's ability to survive immersion in cold water is determined almost exclusively by the ability to maintain a high level of shivering metabolism.

Embryonic critical windows: changes in incubation temperature alter survival, hatchling phenotype, and cost of development in lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis).

PubMed

Mueller, Casey A; Eme, John; Manzon, Richard G; Somers, Christopher M; Boreham, Douglas R; Wilson, Joanna Y

2015-04-01

The timing, success and energetics of fish embryonic development are strongly influenced by temperature. However, it is unclear if there are developmental periods, or critical windows, when oxygen use, survival and hatchling phenotypic characteristics are particularly influenced by changes in the thermal environment. Therefore, we examined the effects of constant incubation temperature and thermal shifts on survival, hatchling phenotype, and cost of development in lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) embryos. We incubated whitefish embryos at control temperatures of 2, 5, or 8 °C, and shifted embryos across these three temperatures at the end of gastrulation or organogenesis. We assessed hatch timing, mass at hatch, and yolk conversion efficiency (YCE). We determined cost of development, the amount of oxygen required to build a unit of mass, for the periods from fertilization-organogenesis, organogenesis-fin flutter, fin flutter-hatch, and for total development. An increase in incubation temperature decreased time to 50 % hatch (164 days at 2 °C, 104 days at 5 °C, and 63 days at 8 °C), survival decreased from 55 % at 2 °C, to 38 % at 5 °C, and 17 % at 8 °C, and hatchling yolk-free dry mass decreased from 1.27 mg at 2 °C to 0.61 mg at 8 °C. Thermal shifts altered time to 50 % hatch and hatchling yolk-free dry mass and revealed a critical window during gastrulation in which a temperature change reduced survival. YCE decreased and cost of development increased with increased incubation temperature, but embryos that hatched at 8 °C and were incubated at colder temperatures during fertilization-organogenesis had reduced cost. The relationship between cost of development and temperature was altered during fin flutter-hatch, indicating it may be a critical window during which temperature has the greatest impact on energetic processes. The increase in cost of development with an increase in temperature has not been documented in other fishes and suggests whitefish embryos are more energy efficient at colder temperatures.

Sample size calculation for studies with grouped survival data.

PubMed

Li, Zhiguo; Wang, Xiaofei; Wu, Yuan; Owzar, Kouros

2018-06-10

Grouped survival data arise often in studies where the disease status is assessed at regular visits to clinic. The time to the event of interest can only be determined to be between two adjacent visits or is right censored at one visit. In data analysis, replacing the survival time with the endpoint or midpoint of the grouping interval leads to biased estimators of the effect size in group comparisons. Prentice and Gloeckler developed a maximum likelihood estimator for the proportional hazards model with grouped survival data and the method has been widely applied. Previous work on sample size calculation for designing studies with grouped data is based on either the exponential distribution assumption or the approximation of variance under the alternative with variance under the null. Motivated by studies in HIV trials, cancer trials and in vitro experiments to study drug toxicity, we develop a sample size formula for studies with grouped survival endpoints that use the method of Prentice and Gloeckler for comparing two arms under the proportional hazards assumption. We do not impose any distributional assumptions, nor do we use any approximation of variance of the test statistic. The sample size formula only requires estimates of the hazard ratio and survival probabilities of the event time of interest and the censoring time at the endpoints of the grouping intervals for one of the two arms. The formula is shown to perform well in a simulation study and its application is illustrated in the three motivating examples. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Estimating the average treatment effect on survival based on observational data and using partly conditional modeling.

PubMed

Gong, Qi; Schaubel, Douglas E

2017-03-01

Treatments are frequently evaluated in terms of their effect on patient survival. In settings where randomization of treatment is not feasible, observational data are employed, necessitating correction for covariate imbalances. Treatments are usually compared using a hazard ratio. Most existing methods which quantify the treatment effect through the survival function are applicable to treatments assigned at time 0. In the data structure of our interest, subjects typically begin follow-up untreated; time-until-treatment, and the pretreatment death hazard are both heavily influenced by longitudinal covariates; and subjects may experience periods of treatment ineligibility. We propose semiparametric methods for estimating the average difference in restricted mean survival time attributable to a time-dependent treatment, the average effect of treatment among the treated, under current treatment assignment patterns. The pre- and posttreatment models are partly conditional, in that they use the covariate history up to the time of treatment. The pre-treatment model is estimated through recently developed landmark analysis methods. For each treated patient, fitted pre- and posttreatment survival curves are projected out, then averaged in a manner which accounts for the censoring of treatment times. Asymptotic properties are derived and evaluated through simulation. The proposed methods are applied to liver transplant data in order to estimate the effect of liver transplantation on survival among transplant recipients under current practice patterns. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

Factors affecting survival of women diagnosed with breast cancer in El-Minia Governorate, Egypt.

PubMed

Seedhom, Amany Edward; Kamal, Nashwa Nabil

2011-07-01

This study was conducted to determine breast cancer survival time and the association between breast cancer survival and socio-demographic and pathologic factors among women, in El-Minia, Egypt. While there has been much researches regarding prognostic factors for breast cancer but the majority of these studies were from developed countries. El-Minia has a population of approximately 4 million. To date, no research has been performed to determine breast cancer survival and the factors affecting it in El-minia. This retrospective study used data obtained from the cancer registry in the National Institute of Oncology in El-Minia and included 1207 women diagnosed with first primary breast cancer between 1(st) January 2005 and 31(st) December 2009 and followed to 30(th) June 2010. The association between survival and sociodemographic and pathological factors and distant metastasis at diagnosis, and treatment options was investigated using unifactorial chi-square test and multi-factorial (Cox regression) analyses. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to compare survival time among different groups. Median survival time was 83.8 ± 3.2. Cox regression showed that high vs low educational level (Hazard ratio (HR)= 0.35, 95% CI; 0.27-0.46), metastases to bone (HR = 3.22, 95% CI: 1.71-6.05), metastases to lung (HR= 2.314, 95% CI: 1.225-4.373), tumor size (≤ 2 cm vs ≥ 5 cm: HR = 1.4, 95% CI: 1.1-1.8) and number of involved nodes (1 vs > 10 HR = 5.21, 95%CI: 3.1-9.01) were significantly related to survival. The results showed the need to develop screening programs and standardized treatment regimens in a tax-funded health care system.

Economic Competition, Sustainability, and Survival Endurance: The Extinction of the Dodo, the Easter Island Case, and the Tragedy of the Commons Effect

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moreira, Pedro

2012-01-01

A fast developing industry worldwide, tourism demands a monumental extent of resources, and at times devastates and condemns the very own environments that are fundamental to the economic survival of organizations and the sustainability of travel destinations. The purpose of the study is to link three established scientific themes on survival and…

Modeling time-to-event (survival) data using classification tree analysis.

PubMed

Linden, Ariel; Yarnold, Paul R

2017-12-01

Time to the occurrence of an event is often studied in health research. Survival analysis differs from other designs in that follow-up times for individuals who do not experience the event by the end of the study (called censored) are accounted for in the analysis. Cox regression is the standard method for analysing censored data, but the assumptions required of these models are easily violated. In this paper, we introduce classification tree analysis (CTA) as a flexible alternative for modelling censored data. Classification tree analysis is a "decision-tree"-like classification model that provides parsimonious, transparent (ie, easy to visually display and interpret) decision rules that maximize predictive accuracy, derives exact P values via permutation tests, and evaluates model cross-generalizability. Using empirical data, we identify all statistically valid, reproducible, longitudinally consistent, and cross-generalizable CTA survival models and then compare their predictive accuracy to estimates derived via Cox regression and an unadjusted naïve model. Model performance is assessed using integrated Brier scores and a comparison between estimated survival curves. The Cox regression model best predicts average incidence of the outcome over time, whereas CTA survival models best predict either relatively high, or low, incidence of the outcome over time. Classification tree analysis survival models offer many advantages over Cox regression, such as explicit maximization of predictive accuracy, parsimony, statistical robustness, and transparency. Therefore, researchers interested in accurate prognoses and clear decision rules should consider developing models using the CTA-survival framework. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The effects of increased constant incubation temperature and cumulative acute heat shock exposures on morphology and survival of Lake Whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) embryos.

PubMed

Lee, Abigail H; Eme, John; Mueller, Casey A; Manzon, Richard G; Somers, Christopher M; Boreham, Douglas R; Wilson, Joanna Y

2016-04-01

Increasing incubation temperatures, caused by global climate change or thermal effluent from industrial processes, may influence embryonic development of fish. This study investigates the cumulative effects of increased incubation temperature and repeated heat shocks on developing Lake Whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) embryos. We studied the effects of three constant incubation temperatures (2°C, 5°C or 8°C water) and weekly, 1-h heat shocks (+3°C) on hatching time, survival and morphology of embryos, as these endpoints may be particularly susceptible to temperature changes. The constant temperatures represent the predicted magnitude of elevated water temperatures from climate change and industrial thermal plumes. Time to the pre-hatch stage decreased as constant incubation temperature increased (148d at 2°C, 92d at 5°C, 50d at 8°C), but weekly heat shocks did not affect time to hatch. Mean survival rates and embryo morphometrics were compared at specific developmental time-points (blastopore, eyed, fin flutter and pre-hatch) across all treatments. Constant incubation temperatures or +3°C heat-shock exposures did not significantly alter cumulative survival percentage (~50% cumulative survival to pre-hatch stage). Constant warm incubation temperatures did result in differences in morphology in pre-hatch stage embryos. 8°C and 5°C embryos were significantly smaller and had larger yolks than 2°C embryos, but heat-shocked embryos did not differ from their respective constant temperature treatment groups. Elevated incubation temperatures may adversely alter Lake Whitefish embryo size at hatch, but weekly 1-h heat shocks did not affect size or survival at hatch. These results suggest that intermittent bouts of warm water effluent (e.g., variable industrial emissions) are less likely to negatively affect Lake Whitefish embryonic development than warmer constant incubation temperatures that may occur due to climate change. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Developing an analytical tool for evaluating EMS system design changes and their impact on cardiac arrest outcomes: combining geographic information systems with register data on survival rates

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is a frequent and acute medical condition that requires immediate care. We estimate survival rates from OHCA in the area of Stockholm, through developing an analytical tool for evaluating Emergency Medical Services (EMS) system design changes. The study also is an attempt to validate the proposed model used to generate the outcome measures for the study. Methods and results This was done by combining a geographic information systems (GIS) simulation of driving times with register data on survival rates. The emergency resources comprised ambulance alone and ambulance plus fire services. The simulation model predicted a baseline survival rate of 3.9 per cent, and reducing the ambulance response time by one minute increased survival to 4.6 per cent. Adding the fire services as first responders (dual dispatch) increased survival to 6.2 per cent from the baseline level. The model predictions were validated using empirical data. Conclusion We have presented an analytical tool that easily can be generalized to other regions or countries. The model can be used to predict outcomes of cardiac arrest prior to investment in EMS design changes that affect the alarm process, e.g. (1) static changes such as trimming the emergency call handling time or (2) dynamic changes such as location of emergency resources or which resources should carry a defibrillator. PMID:23415045

Relative impact of human leukocyte antigen mismatching and graft ischemic time after lung transplantation.

PubMed

Brugière, Olivier; Thabut, Gabriel; Suberbielle, Caroline; Reynaud-Gaubert, Martine; Thomas, Pascal; Pison, Christophe; Saint Raymond, Christel; Mornex, Jean-François; Bertocchi, Michèle; Dromer, Claire; Velly, Jean-François; Stern, Marc; Philippe, Bruno; Dauriat, Gaëlle; Biondi, Giuseppina; Castier, Yves; Fournier, Michel

2008-06-01

Recent data strongly suggest that human leukocyte antigen (HLA) mismatching has a negative impact on development of bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome (BOS) and survival after lung transplantation (LTx). Because HLA matching is sometimes achieved by extending ischemic time in other solid-organ transplantation models and ischemic time is a risk factor per se for death after LTx, we sought to compare the theoretical benefit of HLA matching with the negative impact of lengthened ischemic time. In this collaborative study we compared the relative impact of HLA mismatching and ischemic time on BOS and survival in 182 LTx recipients. Using multivariate analyses, we observed a lower incidence of BOS (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.70, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.1 to 2.7, p = 0.03) and enhanced survival (HR = 1.91, 95% CI: 1.24 to 2.92, p = 0.01) in patients with zero or one HLA-A mismatch compared with those having two HLA-A mismatches. This beneficial effect on survival was equivalent to a reduction of ischemic time of 168 minutes. We observed a reduced incidence of BOS and a better survival rate in patients well-matched at the HLA-A locus, associated with an opposite effect of an enhanced ischemic time. This suggests that graft ischemic time should be taken into account in future studies of prospective HLA matching in LTx.

KMWin--a convenient tool for graphical presentation of results from Kaplan-Meier survival time analysis.

PubMed

Gross, Arnd; Ziepert, Marita; Scholz, Markus

2012-01-01

Analysis of clinical studies often necessitates multiple graphical representations of the results. Many professional software packages are available for this purpose. Most packages are either only commercially available or hard to use especially if one aims to generate or customize a huge number of similar graphical outputs. We developed a new, freely available software tool called KMWin (Kaplan-Meier for Windows) facilitating Kaplan-Meier survival time analysis. KMWin is based on the statistical software environment R and provides an easy to use graphical interface. Survival time data can be supplied as SPSS (sav), SAS export (xpt) or text file (dat), which is also a common export format of other applications such as Excel. Figures can directly be exported in any graphical file format supported by R. On the basis of a working example, we demonstrate how to use KMWin and present its main functions. We show how to control the interface, customize the graphical output, and analyse survival time data. A number of comparisons are performed between KMWin and SPSS regarding graphical output, statistical output, data management and development. Although the general functionality of SPSS is larger, KMWin comprises a number of features useful for survival time analysis in clinical trials and other applications. These are for example number of cases and number of cases under risk within the figure or provision of a queue system for repetitive analyses of updated data sets. Moreover, major adjustments of graphical settings can be performed easily on a single window. We conclude that our tool is well suited and convenient for repetitive analyses of survival time data. It can be used by non-statisticians and provides often used functions as well as functions which are not supplied by standard software packages. The software is routinely applied in several clinical study groups.

KMWin – A Convenient Tool for Graphical Presentation of Results from Kaplan-Meier Survival Time Analysis

PubMed Central

Gross, Arnd; Ziepert, Marita; Scholz, Markus

2012-01-01

Background Analysis of clinical studies often necessitates multiple graphical representations of the results. Many professional software packages are available for this purpose. Most packages are either only commercially available or hard to use especially if one aims to generate or customize a huge number of similar graphical outputs. We developed a new, freely available software tool called KMWin (Kaplan-Meier for Windows) facilitating Kaplan-Meier survival time analysis. KMWin is based on the statistical software environment R and provides an easy to use graphical interface. Survival time data can be supplied as SPSS (sav), SAS export (xpt) or text file (dat), which is also a common export format of other applications such as Excel. Figures can directly be exported in any graphical file format supported by R. Results On the basis of a working example, we demonstrate how to use KMWin and present its main functions. We show how to control the interface, customize the graphical output, and analyse survival time data. A number of comparisons are performed between KMWin and SPSS regarding graphical output, statistical output, data management and development. Although the general functionality of SPSS is larger, KMWin comprises a number of features useful for survival time analysis in clinical trials and other applications. These are for example number of cases and number of cases under risk within the figure or provision of a queue system for repetitive analyses of updated data sets. Moreover, major adjustments of graphical settings can be performed easily on a single window. Conclusions We conclude that our tool is well suited and convenient for repetitive analyses of survival time data. It can be used by non-statisticians and provides often used functions as well as functions which are not supplied by standard software packages. The software is routinely applied in several clinical study groups. PMID:22723912

Evaluation of outcome and prognostic factors for dogs living greater than one year after diagnosis of osteosarcoma: 90 cases (1997-2008).

PubMed

Culp, William T N; Olea-Popelka, Francisco; Sefton, Jennifer; Aldridge, Charles F; Withrow, Stephen J; Lafferty, Mary H; Rebhun, Robert B; Kent, Michael S; Ehrhart, Nicole

2014-11-15

To evaluate clinical characteristics, outcome, and prognostic variables in a cohort of dogs surviving > 1 year after an initial diagnosis of osteosarcoma. Retrospective case series. 90 client-owned dogs. Medical records for an 11-year period from 1997 through 2008 were reviewed, and patients with appendicular osteosarcoma that lived > 1 year after initial histopathologic diagnosis were studied. Variables including signalment, weight, serum alkaline phosphatase activity, tumor location, surgery, and adjuvant therapies were recorded. Median survival times were calculated by means of a Kaplan-Meier survival function. Univariate analysis was conducted to compare the survival function for categorical variables, and the Cox proportional hazard model was used to evaluate the likelihood of death > 1 year after diagnosis on the basis of the selected risk factors. 90 dogs met the inclusion criteria; clinical laboratory information was not available in all cases. Median age was 8.2 years (range, 2.7 to 13.3 years), and median weight was 38 kg (83.6 lb; range, 21 to 80 kg [46.2 to 176 lb]). Serum alkaline phosphatase activity was high in 29 of 60 (48%) dogs. The most common tumor location was the distal portion of the radius (54/90 [60%]). Eighty-nine of 90 (99%) dogs underwent surgery, and 78 (87%) received chemotherapy. Overall, 49 of 90 (54%) dogs developed metastatic disease. The median survival time beyond 1 year was 243 days (range, 1 to 1,899 days). Dogs that developed a surgical-site infection after limb-sparing surgery had a significantly improved prognosis > 1 year after osteosarcoma diagnosis, compared with dogs that did not develop infections. Results of the present study indicated that dogs with an initial diagnosis of osteosarcoma that lived > 1 year had a median survival time beyond the initial year of approximately 8 months. As reported previously, the development of a surgical-site infection in dogs undergoing a limb-sparing surgery significantly affected prognosis and warrants further study.

Effects of temperature on survival and development of early life stage Pacific and western brook lampreys

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meeuwig, M.H.; Bayer, J.M.; Seelye, J.G.

2005-01-01

We examined the effects of temperature (10, 14, 18, and 22??C) on survival and development of Pacific lampreys Lampetra tridentata and western brook lampreys L. richardsoni during embryological and early larval stages. The temperature for zero development was estimated for each species, and the response to temperature was measured as the proportion of individuals surviving to hatch, surviving to the larval stage, and exhibiting abnormalities at the larval stage (i.e., malformations of the body). The estimated temperature for zero development was 4.850C for Pacific lampreys and 4.97??C for western brook lampreys. Survival was greatest at 18??C, followed by 14, 10, and 22??C, significant differences being observed between 22??C and the other temperatures. Overall survival was significantly greater for western brook lampreys than for Pacific lampreys; however, the overall difference in proportion of individuals surviving was only 0.02. Overall survival significantly decreased from the time of hatch (proportion surviving = 0.85) to the larval stage (0.82; i.e., during the free-embryo stage). The proportion of individuals exhibiting abnormalities at the larval stage was greatest at 22??C, followed by 18, 10, and 14??C, significant differences being observed between 22??C and the other temperatures. These data provide baseline information on the thermal requirements of early life stage Pacific and western brook lampreys and will aid in assessment and prediction of suitable spawning and rearing habitats for these species.

Natural Regeneration and Development of Nuttall Oak and Associated Species

Treesearch

Robert L. Johnson

1975-01-01

Nuttall oaks from a dense seedling catch survived for 5 to 10 years in complete shade and for 15 years with 1 or 2 hours of daily sunlight. They made little growth, but they responded well when released after periods of 1 to 9 years. Time of release did not affect subsequent survival or growth. Green ash, water hickory, and sugarberry survived equally well and outgrew...

[(90)Yttrium-DOTA]-TOC response is associated with survival benefit in iodine-refractory thyroid cancer: long-term results of a phase 2 clinical trial.

PubMed

Iten, Fabienne; Muller, Beat; Schindler, Christian; Rasch, Helmut; Rochlitz, Christoph; Oertli, Daniel; Maecke, Helmut R; Muller-Brand, Jan; Walter, Martin A

2009-05-15

The authors aimed to explore the efficacy of (90)Yttrium-1,4,7,10-tetra-azacyclododecane N,N',N'',N'''-tetraacetic acid [(90)Y-DOTA]-Tyr(3)-octreotide (TOC) in advanced iodine-refractory thyroid cancer. In a phase 2 trial, the authors investigated biochemical response (assessed by serum thyroglobulin levels), survival, and the long-term safety profile of systemic [(90)Y-DOTA]-TOC treatment in metastasized iodine-refractory thyroid cancer. Adverse events were assessed according to the National Cancer Institute criteria. Survival analyses were performed by using multiple regression models. A total of 24 patients were enrolled. A median cumulative activity of 13.0 GBq (range, 1.7-30.3 GBq) was administered. Response was found in 7 (29.2%) patients. Eight (33.3%) patients developed hematologic toxicity grade 1-3, and 4 (16.7%) patients developed renal toxicity grade 1-4. The median survival was 33.4 months (range, 3.6-126.8 months) from time of diagnosis and 16.8 months (range, 1.8-99.1 months) from time of first [(90)Y-DOTA]-TOC treatment. Response to treatment was associated with longer survival from time of diagnosis (hazard ratio [HR], 0.17; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.03-0.92; P = .04) and from time of first [(90)Y-DOTA]-TOC therapy (HR, 0.20; 95% CI, 0.04-0.94; P = .04). The visual grade of scintigraphic tumor uptake was not associated with treatment response (odds ratio [OR], 0.98; 95% CI, 0.26-3.14; P = 1.00). Response to [(90)Y-DOTA]-TOC in metastasized iodine-refractory thyroid cancer was associated with longer survival. Upcoming trials should aim to increase the number of treatment cycles.

Survival Analysis of Patients with End Stage Renal Disease

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urrutia, J. D.; Gayo, W. S.; Bautista, L. A.; Baccay, E. B.

2015-06-01

This paper provides a survival analysis of End Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) under Kaplan-Meier Estimates and Weibull Distribution. The data were obtained from the records of V. L. MakabaliMemorial Hospital with respect to time t (patient's age), covariates such as developed secondary disease (Pulmonary Congestion and Cardiovascular Disease), gender, and the event of interest: the death of ESRD patients. Survival and hazard rates were estimated using NCSS for Weibull Distribution and SPSS for Kaplan-Meier Estimates. These lead to the same conclusion that hazard rate increases and survival rate decreases of ESRD patient diagnosed with Pulmonary Congestion, Cardiovascular Disease and both diseases with respect to time. It also shows that female patients have a greater risk of death compared to males. The probability risk was given the equation R = 1 — e-H(t) where e-H(t) is the survival function, H(t) the cumulative hazard function which was created using Cox-Regression.

Evaluation of the Persistence of Infectious Human Noroviruses on Food Surfaces by Using Real-Time Nucleic Acid Sequence-Based Amplification▿

PubMed Central

Lamhoujeb, Safaa; Fliss, Ismail; Ngazoa, Solange E.; Jean, Julie

2008-01-01

Noroviruses (NoV) are the major cause of nonbacterial gastroenteritis. However, there is no published study to ascertain their survival on foodstuffs which are directly related to human health risk. In the present study, we developed a rapid, simple, and sensitive real-time nucleic acid sequence-based amplification (NASBA) combined with an enzymatic treatment for distinguishing infectious from noninfectious human NoV. The developed method was validated using spiked ready-to-eat food samples. When feline calicivirus (FCV) was used as a NoV surrogate in the preliminary assays, it appeared more sensitive to heat inactivation and enzymatic pretreatment than the human NoV. This suggests that FCV may not be an ideal model for studying NoV. Our results reveal clearly that the developed enzymatic pretreatment/real-time NASBA combination successfully distinguished the infectious from heat-inactivated NoV. Moreover, we demonstrate that NoV survived for at least 10 days on refrigerated ready-to-eat foods, such as lettuce and turkey. However, the survival rate was higher on turkey than on lettuce, probably because of their different surface natures. The approach developed in this study may be suitable for more in-depth studies of the persistence and inactivation of human NoV and may be applied to other nonculturable RNA viruses. Moreover, the evaluation of infectious NoV survival provided valuable information concerning its persistence on ready-to-eat food. PMID:18378643

JCDSA: a joint covariate detection tool for survival analysis on tumor expression profiles.

PubMed

Wu, Yiming; Liu, Yanan; Wang, Yueming; Shi, Yan; Zhao, Xudong

2018-05-29

Survival analysis on tumor expression profiles has always been a key issue for subsequent biological experimental validation. It is crucial how to select features which closely correspond to survival time. Furthermore, it is important how to select features which best discriminate between low-risk and high-risk group of patients. Common features derived from the two aspects may provide variable candidates for prognosis of cancer. Based on the provided two-step feature selection strategy, we develop a joint covariate detection tool for survival analysis on tumor expression profiles. Significant features, which are not only consistent with survival time but also associated with the categories of patients with different survival risks, are chosen. Using the miRNA expression data (Level 3) of 548 patients with glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) as an example, miRNA candidates for prognosis of cancer are selected. The reliability of selected miRNAs using this tool is demonstrated by 100 simulations. Furthermore, It is discovered that significant covariates are not directly composed of individually significant variables. Joint covariate detection provides a viewpoint for selecting variables which are not individually but jointly significant. Besides, it helps to select features which are not only consistent with survival time but also associated with prognosis risk. The software is available at http://bio-nefu.com/resource/jcdsa .

Copula based flexible modeling of associations between clustered event times.

PubMed

Geerdens, Candida; Claeskens, Gerda; Janssen, Paul

2016-07-01

Multivariate survival data are characterized by the presence of correlation between event times within the same cluster. First, we build multi-dimensional copulas with flexible and possibly symmetric dependence structures for such data. In particular, clustered right-censored survival data are modeled using mixtures of max-infinitely divisible bivariate copulas. Second, these copulas are fit by a likelihood approach where the vast amount of copula derivatives present in the likelihood is approximated by finite differences. Third, we formulate conditions for clustered right-censored survival data under which an information criterion for model selection is either weakly consistent or consistent. Several of the familiar selection criteria are included. A set of four-dimensional data on time-to-mastitis is used to demonstrate the developed methodology.

Modeling the survival kinetics of Salmonella in tree nuts for use in risk assessment.

PubMed

Santillana Farakos, Sofia M; Pouillot, Régis; Anderson, Nathan; Johnson, Rhoma; Son, Insook; Van Doren, Jane

2016-06-16

Salmonella has been shown to survive in tree nuts over long periods of time. This survival capacity and its variability are key elements for risk assessment of Salmonella in tree nuts. The aim of this study was to develop a mathematical model to predict survival of Salmonella in tree nuts at ambient storage temperatures that considers variability and uncertainty separately and can easily be incorporated into a risk assessment model. Data on Salmonella survival on raw almonds, pecans, pistachios and walnuts were collected from the peer reviewed literature. The Weibull model was chosen as the baseline model and various fixed effect and mixed effect models were fit to the data. The best model identified through statistical analysis testing was then used to develop a hierarchical Bayesian model. Salmonella in tree nuts showed slow declines at temperatures ranging from 21°C to 24°C. A high degree of variability in survival was observed across tree nut studies reported in the literature. Statistical analysis results indicated that the best applicable model was a mixed effect model that included a fixed and random variation of δ per tree nut (which is the time it takes for the first log10 reduction) and a fixed variation of ρ per tree nut (parameter which defines the shape of the curve). Higher estimated survival rates (δ) were obtained for Salmonella on pistachios, followed in decreasing order by pecans, almonds and walnuts. The posterior distributions obtained from Bayesian inference were used to estimate the variability in the log10 decrease levels in survival for each tree nut, and the uncertainty of these estimates. These modeled uncertainty and variability distributions of the estimates can be used to obtain a complete exposure assessment of Salmonella in tree nuts when including time-temperature parameters for storage and consumption data. The statistical approach presented in this study may be applied to any studies that aim to develop predictive models to be implemented in a probabilistic exposure assessment or a quantitative microbial risk assessment. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Enhanced secondary analysis of survival data: reconstructing the data from published Kaplan-Meier survival curves.

PubMed

Guyot, Patricia; Ades, A E; Ouwens, Mario J N M; Welton, Nicky J

2012-02-01

The results of Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) on time-to-event outcomes that are usually reported are median time to events and Cox Hazard Ratio. These do not constitute the sufficient statistics required for meta-analysis or cost-effectiveness analysis, and their use in secondary analyses requires strong assumptions that may not have been adequately tested. In order to enhance the quality of secondary data analyses, we propose a method which derives from the published Kaplan Meier survival curves a close approximation to the original individual patient time-to-event data from which they were generated. We develop an algorithm that maps from digitised curves back to KM data by finding numerical solutions to the inverted KM equations, using where available information on number of events and numbers at risk. The reproducibility and accuracy of survival probabilities, median survival times and hazard ratios based on reconstructed KM data was assessed by comparing published statistics (survival probabilities, medians and hazard ratios) with statistics based on repeated reconstructions by multiple observers. The validation exercise established there was no material systematic error and that there was a high degree of reproducibility for all statistics. Accuracy was excellent for survival probabilities and medians, for hazard ratios reasonable accuracy can only be obtained if at least numbers at risk or total number of events are reported. The algorithm is a reliable tool for meta-analysis and cost-effectiveness analyses of RCTs reporting time-to-event data. It is recommended that all RCTs should report information on numbers at risk and total number of events alongside KM curves.

Survival and development of horseshoe crab (Limulus polyphemus) embryos and larvae in hypersaline conditions.

PubMed

Ehlinger, Gretchen S; Tankersley, Richard A

2004-04-01

The horseshoe crab Limulus polyphemus spawns in the mid- to upper intertidal zone where females deposit eggs in nests below the sediment surface. Although adult crabs generally inhabit subtidal regions of estuaries with salinities from 5 to 34 ppt, developing embryos and larvae within nests are often exposed to more extreme conditions of salinity and temperature during summer spawning periods. To test whether these conditions have a negative impact on early development and survival, we determined development time, survival, and molt cycle duration for L. polyphemus embryos and larvae raised at 20 combinations of salinity (range: 30-60 ppt) and temperature (range: 25-40 degrees C). Additionally, the effect of hyperosmotic and hypoosmotic shock on the osmolarity of the perivitelline fluid of embryos was determined at salinities between 5 and 90 ppt. The embryos completed their development and molted at salinities below 60 ppt, yet failed to develop at temperatures of 35 degrees C or higher. Larval survival was high at salinities of 10-70 ppt but declined significantly at more extreme salinities (i.e., 5, 80, and 90 ppt). Perivitelline fluid remained nearly isoosmotic over the range of salinities tested. Results indicate that temperature and salinity influence the rate of crab development, but only the extremes of these conditions have an effect on survival.

Ethical issues in neonatal intensive care units.

PubMed

Liu, Jing; Chen, Xin-Xin; Wang, Xin-Ling

2016-01-01

On one hand, advances in neonatal care and rescue technology allow for the healthy survival or prolonged survival time of critically ill newborns who, in the past, would have been non-viable. On the other hand, many of the surviving critically ill infants have serious long-term disabilities. If an infant eventually cannot survive or is likely to suffer severe disability after surviving, ethical issues in the treatment process are inevitable, and this problem arises not only in developed countries but is also becoming increasingly prominent in developing countries. In addition, ethical concerns cannot be avoided in medical research. This review article introduces basic ethical guidelines that should be followed in clinical practice, including respecting the autonomy of the parents, giving priority to the best interests of the infant, the principle of doing no harm, and consent and the right to be informed. Furthermore, the major ethical concerns in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) in China are briefly introduced.

HIS-based Kaplan-Meier plots--a single source approach for documenting and reusing routine survival information.

PubMed

Breil, Bernhard; Semjonow, Axel; Müller-Tidow, Carsten; Fritz, Fleur; Dugas, Martin

2011-02-16

Survival or outcome information is important for clinical routine as well as for clinical research and should be collected completely, timely and precisely. This information is relevant for multiple usages including quality control, clinical trials, observational studies and epidemiological registries. However, the local hospital information system (HIS) does not support this documentation and therefore this data has to generated by paper based or spreadsheet methods which can result in redundantly documented data. Therefore we investigated, whether integrating the follow-up documentation of different departments in the HIS and reusing it for survival analysis can enable the physician to obtain survival curves in a timely manner and to avoid redundant documentation. We analysed the current follow-up process of oncological patients in two departments (urology, haematology) with respect to different documentation forms. We developed a concept for comprehensive survival documentation based on a generic data model and implemented a follow-up form within the HIS of the University Hospital Muenster which is suitable for a secondary use of these data. We designed a query to extract the relevant data from the HIS and implemented Kaplan-Meier plots based on these data. To re-use this data sufficient data quality is needed. We measured completeness of forms with respect to all tumour cases in the clinic and completeness of documented items per form as incomplete information can bias results of the survival analysis. Based on the form analysis we discovered differences and concordances between both departments. We identified 52 attributes from which 13 were common (e.g. procedures and diagnosis dates) and were used for the generic data model. The electronic follow-up form was integrated in the clinical workflow. Survival data was also retrospectively entered in order to perform survival and quality analyses on a comprehensive data set. Physicians are now able to generate timely Kaplan-Meier plots on current data. We analysed 1029 follow-up forms of 965 patients with survival information between 1992 and 2010. Completeness of forms was 60.2%, completeness of items ranges between 94.3% and 98.5%. Median overall survival time was 16.4 years; median event-free survival time was 7.7 years. It is feasible to integrate survival information into routine HIS documentation such that Kaplan-Meier plots can be generated directly and in a timely manner.

Effect of temperature on life history traits during immature development of Aedes aegypti and Culex quinquefasciatus (Diptera: Culicidae) from Córdoba city, Argentina.

PubMed

Grech, Marta G; Sartor, Paolo D; Almirón, Walter R; Ludueña-Almeida, Francisco F

2015-06-01

We investigated how ambient temperature under fluctuating conditions affects the larval-pupal immature traits of Aedes aegypti and Culex quinquefasciatus mosquitoes from Córdoba city, Argentina, and established each species development threshold and physiological time. Based on life tables, three cohorts of each mosquito species were reared in the laboratory under small fluctuating temperatures conditions of 15.2±1.7°C, 17.9±1.6°C, 21.6±0.7°C and 25.3±0.4°C for Ae. aegypti, and 16.6±1.7°C, 18.7±1.7°C and 25.2±0.3°C for Cx. quinquefasciatus. Immature development time and survival values, and also thermal development threshold and physiological time were estimated. Development times of all larval and pupal stages of Ae. aegypti and Cx. quinquefasciatus were significantly affected by the rearing temperatures, decreasing when temperature increased. Mean Ae. aegypti total (larva+pupa) development time ranged from 21.9 to 8.6 days, at 15.2 and 25.3°C, whereas, for Cx. quinquefasciatus varied between 23.5 to 9.2 days at 16.6 and 25.2°C, respectively. Larval and pupal survival of both species was affected by different rearing temperatures, increasing in general as temperature increased. For Ae. aegypti the total immature survival ranged from 26% at 15.2°C to 92% at 21.6°C; however, temperature did not have significant effect on this variable. The total immature survival of Cx. quinquefasciatus was significantly and positively affected by temperatures, ranging from 32 to 88%, at 16.6 and 25.2°C. The temperature development threshold and the physiological time estimated for Ae. aegypti and Cx. quinquefasciatus were 11.11°C and 93.74 degree-days, and 10.96°C and 136.87 degree-days, respectively. The results of the present study showed that temperature significantly affects the larval-pupal immature traits of these mosquito species of sanitary importance, from the central region of Argentina. All the parameters recorded are useful for the development of mosquito management models. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Recurrence and Survival Outcomes After Percutaneous Thermal Ablation of Oligometastatic Melanoma.

PubMed

White, Mariah L; Atwell, Thomas D; Kurup, A Nicholas; Schmit, Grant D; Carter, Rickey E; Geske, Jennifer R; Kottschade, Lisa A; Pulido, Jose S; Block, Matthew S; Jakub, James W; Callstrom, Matthew R; Markovic, Svetomir N

2016-03-01

To evaluate focal treatment of melanoma metastases and to explore whether any potential extended survival benefit exists in a select patient population. All patients who underwent image-guided local thermal ablation of metastatic melanoma over an 11-year period (January 1, 2002, to December 31, 2013) were retrospectively identified using an internally maintained clinical registry. Only patients with oligometastatic stage IV disease amenable to complete ablation of all clinical disease at the time of ablation were included in the analysis. Overall survival and median progression-free survival periods were calculated. Thirty-three patients with primary ocular or nonocular melanoma had 66 metastases treated in the lungs, liver, bones, or soft tissues. Eleven (33%) patients were on systemic medical therapy at the time of the procedure. The median survival time was 3.8 years (range, 0.5-10.5 years), with a 4-year estimated survival of 44.1% (95% CI, 28%-68%). Local recurrence at the ablation site developed in 15.1% (5 of 33) of the patients and 13.6% of the tumors (9 of 66). The median progression-free survival time was 4.4 months (95% CI, 1.4 months to 10.5 years), with an estimated 1-year progression-free survival of 30.3% (95% CI, 18%-51%). A subgroup analysis identified 11 patients with primary ocular melanoma and 22 with nonocular melanoma, with a median survival time of 3.9 years (range, 0.9-4.7 years) and 3.8 years (range, 0.5-10.5 years), respectively (P=.58). There were no major complications and no deaths within 30 days of the procedure. Selective use of image-guided thermal ablation of oligometastatic melanoma may provide results similar to surgical resection in terms of technical effectiveness and oncologic outcomes with minimal risk. Copyright © 2016 Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Survival time with pacemaker implantation for dogs diagnosed with persistent atrial standstill.

PubMed

Cervenec, R M; Stauthammer, C D; Fine, D M; Kellihan, H B; Scansen, B A

2017-06-01

To evaluate survival time in dogs with persistent atrial standstill after pacemaker implantation and to compare the survival times for cardiac-related vs. non-cardiac deaths. Secondary objectives were to evaluate the effects of breed and the presence of congestive heart failure (CHF) at the time of diagnosis on survival time. Twenty dogs with persistent atrial standstill and pacemaker implantation. Medical records were searched to identify dogs diagnosed with persistent atrial standstill based on electrocardiogram that underwent pacemaker implantation. Survival after pacemaker implantation was analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method. The median survival time after pacemaker implantation for all-cause mortality was 866 days. There was no significant difference (p=0.573) in median survival time for cardiac (506 days) vs. non-cardiac deaths (400 days). The presence of CHF at the time of diagnosis did not affect the survival time (P=0.854). No difference in median survival time was noted between breeds (P=0.126). Dogs with persistent atrial standstill have a median survival time of 866 days with pacemaker implantation, though a wide range of survival times was observed. There was no difference in the median survival time for dogs with cardiac-related deaths and those without. Patient breed and the presence of CHF before pacemaker implantation did not affect median survival time. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

And the first one now will later be last: Time-reversal in cormack-jolly-seber models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, James D.

2016-01-01

The models of Cormack, Jolly and Seber (CJS) are remarkable in providing a rich set of inferences about population survival, recruitment, abundance and even sampling probabilities from a seemingly limited data source: a matrix of 1's and 0's reflecting animal captures and recaptures at multiple sampling occasions. Survival and sampling probabilities are estimated directly in CJS models, whereas estimators for recruitment and abundance were initially obtained as derived quantities. Various investigators have noted that just as standard modeling provides direct inferences about survival, reversing the time order of capture history data permits direct modeling and inference about recruitment. Here we review the development of reverse-time modeling efforts, emphasizing the kinds of inferences and questions to which they seem well suited.

Long-term results of children with acute myeloid leukemia: a report of three consecutive Phase III trials by the Children's Cancer Group: CCG 251, CCG 213 and CCG 2891.

PubMed

Smith, F O; Alonzo, T A; Gerbing, R B; Woods, W G; Arceci, R J

2005-12-01

The Children's Cancer Group (CCG) conducted three Phase III prospective clinical trials for children with de novo acute myeloid leukemia between the years 1979 and 1995. A total of 1903 eligible children ages birth to 21 years of age were enrolled on CCG 251 (n=485), CCG 213 (n=532) and CCG 2891 (n=886). Follow-up is ongoing, with medians of 7.9, 10.9 and 8.6 years, respectively. These three clinical trials developed dose- and time-intensive induction regimens based upon high-dose cytarabine and daunomycin and randomly assigned patients to allogeneic bone marrow transplantation in first remission if an HLA-matched related donor was identified. Despite dose- and time-intensive induction regimens, remission induction rates remained relatively stable at 77-78%. However, overall survival, event-free survival and disease-free survival (DFS) increased for patients receiving intensive-timing induction therapy in comparison to patients who received standard-timing induction, regardless of the type of postremission therapy. Outcomes were best for patients receiving intensive-timing induction followed by matched related donor allogeneic transplantation with DFS of 65+/-9% at 6 years. These three clinical trials have established a strong foundation for the development of future studies focusing on further risk group stratification and the development of novel, molecularly-targeted therapies.

Liver recurrence in endometrial cancer: a multi-institutional analysis of factors predictive of postrecurrence survival.

PubMed

Toptas, Tayfun; Karalok, Alper; Ureyen, Isin; Tasci, Tolga; Erol, Onur; Bozkurt, Selen; Tulunay, Gokhan; Simsek, Tayup; Turan, Taner

2016-10-01

Predictive factors for survival following liver metastasis in endometrial cancer (EC) have not been studied to date. It is expected that patients who initially presented with liver metastasis or developed liver metastasis as the subsequent metastatic site of progressive disease are likely to have poor outcomes. However, patients developing liver metastasis as the first site of recurrence may have a chance of benefiting from the salvage therapies. Therefore, we aimed to determine factors influencing postrecurrence survival in EC patients who developed liver metastasis as the first site of recurrence. Patients with EC who underwent primary surgery at three centers between 1993 and 2013 were reviewed. Liver recurrence was defined as documentation of parenchymal liver metastasis either by radiologically or biopsy, after a disease-free interval of ≥3 months. Patients with liver metastasis at presentation, or liver metastasis as the subsequent metastatic site of progressive disease were excluded. Forty-six patients were identified. Median time to liver recurrence was 12 months, with 91.3 % of recurrences detected within 3 years. Most patients (73.9 %) had liver recurrence concomitant with extra-hepatic disease. Median survival after the diagnosis of liver recurrence was 9 months. While in univariate analysis, time to liver recurrence (p < 0.001) and presence of concomitant extra-hepatic metastasis (p = 0.048) were potential predictors of survival, multivariate analysis revealed that time to liver recurrence (p < 0.001) was the only independent predictor. This criterion may be used as a marker for stratifying patients into different prognostic risk groups and for selection of patients for salvage therapies.

Generalized Accelerated Failure Time Spatial Frailty Model for Arbitrarily Censored Data

PubMed Central

Zhou, Haiming; Hanson, Timothy; Zhang, Jiajia

2017-01-01

Flexible incorporation of both geographical patterning and risk effects in cancer survival models is becoming increasingly important, due in part to the recent availability of large cancer registries. Most spatial survival models stochastically order survival curves from different subpopulations. However, it is common for survival curves from two subpopulations to cross in epidemiological cancer studies and thus interpretable standard survival models can not be used without some modification. Common fixes are the inclusion of time-varying regression effects in the proportional hazards model or fully non-parametric modeling, either of which destroys any easy interpretability from the fitted model. To address this issue, we develop a generalized accelerated failure time model which allows stratification on continuous or categorical covariates, as well as providing per-variable tests for whether stratification is necessary via novel approximate Bayes factors. The model is interpretable in terms of how median survival changes and is able to capture crossing survival curves in the presence of spatial correlation. A detailed Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is presented for posterior inference and a freely available function frailtyGAFT is provided to fit the model in the R package spBayesSurv. We apply our approach to a subset of the prostate cancer data gathered for Louisiana by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program of the National Cancer Institute. PMID:26993982

Incubation media affect the survival, pathway and time of embryo development in Neotropical annual fish Austrolebias nigrofasciatus (Rivulidae).

PubMed

da Fonseca, A P; Volcan, M V; Robaldo, R B

2018-01-01

To analyse the survival, pathway and time of embryo development in the annual fish Austrolebias nigrofasciatus eggs were monitored in four liquid media and two damp media under experimental conditions for 130 days until their development was complete. Eggs kept in the same breeding water from oviposition remained in diapause I (DI) during all experiments. In constrast, up to the stage prior to entering diapause II (DII), the other media had no influence on development. Embryos at this stage (DII), however, show longer development time when treated in medium with water and powdered coconut shell so that about 80% of embryos remained in DII at 100 days. In contrast, all other treatments had a significantly lower proportion of embryos remaining in DII. When treated with Yamamoto's solution in humid media, embryos showed the fastest development. The first fully developed embryos (DIII) were seen at 27 days after oviposition. It took an average of 46-58 days for 50% of eggs in each treatment to reach DIII. Compared with other studies, survival in all incubation media was high at between 70 and 98%. Taken together, it can be concluded that all incubation media were found to be viable for maintaining embryos. Altering developmental trajectories through the manipulation of diapauses in different media makes this species a potential model organism for laboratory studies. © 2017 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Challenges in economic modeling of anticancer therapies: an example of modeling the survival benefit of olaparib maintenance therapy for patients with BRCA-mutated platinum-sensitive relapsed ovarian cancer.

PubMed

Hettle, Robert; Posnett, John; Borrill, John

2015-01-01

The aim of this paper is to describe a four health-state, semi-Markov model structure with health states defined by initiation of subsequent treatment, designed to make best possible use of the data available from a phase 2 clinical trial. The approach is illustrated using data from a sub-group of patients enrolled in a phase 2 clinical trial of olaparib maintenance therapy in patients with platinum-sensitive relapsed ovarian cancer and a BRCA mutation (NCT00753545). A semi-Markov model was developed with four health states: progression-free survival (PFS), first subsequent treatment (FST), second subsequent treatment (SST), and death. Transition probabilities were estimated by fitting survival curves to trial data for time from randomization to FST, time from FST to SST, and time from SST to death. Survival projections generated by the model are broadly consistent with the outcomes observed in the clinical trial. However, limitations of the trial data (small sample size, immaturity of the PFS and overall survival [OS] end-points, and treatment switching) create uncertainty in estimates of survival. The model framework offers a promising approach to evaluating cost-effectiveness of a maintenance therapy for patients with cancer, which may be generalizable to other chronic diseases.

Dynamic frailty models based on compound birth-death processes.

PubMed

Putter, Hein; van Houwelingen, Hans C

2015-07-01

Frailty models are used in survival analysis to model unobserved heterogeneity. They accommodate such heterogeneity by the inclusion of a random term, the frailty, which is assumed to multiply the hazard of a subject (individual frailty) or the hazards of all subjects in a cluster (shared frailty). Typically, the frailty term is assumed to be constant over time. This is a restrictive assumption and extensions to allow for time-varying or dynamic frailties are of interest. In this paper, we extend the auto-correlated frailty models of Henderson and Shimakura and of Fiocco, Putter and van Houwelingen, developed for longitudinal count data and discrete survival data, to continuous survival data. We present a rigorous construction of the frailty processes in continuous time based on compound birth-death processes. When the frailty processes are used as mixtures in models for survival data, we derive the marginal hazards and survival functions and the marginal bivariate survival functions and cross-ratio function. We derive distributional properties of the processes, conditional on observed data, and show how to obtain the maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the model using a (stochastic) expectation-maximization algorithm. The methods are applied to a publicly available data set. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Determinants of graft survival in pediatric and adolescent live donor kidney transplant recipients: a single center experience.

PubMed

El-Husseini, Amr A; Foda, Mohamed A; Shokeir, Ahmed A; Shehab El-Din, Ahmed B; Sobh, Mohamed A; Ghoneim, Mohamed A

2005-12-01

To study the independent determinants of graft survival among pediatric and adolescent live donor kidney transplant recipients. Between March 1976 and March 2004, 1600 live donor kidney transplants were carried out in our center. Of them 284 were 20 yr old or younger (mean age 13.1 yr, ranging from 5 to 20 yr). Evaluation of the possible variables that may affect graft survival were carried out using univariate and multivariate analyses. Studied factors included age, gender, relation between donor and recipient, original kidney disease, ABO blood group, pretransplant blood transfusion, human leukocyte antigen (HLA) matching, pretransplant dialysis, height standard deviation score (SDS), pretransplant hypertension, cold ischemia time, number of renal arteries, ureteral anastomosis, time to diuresis, time of transplantation, occurrence of acute tubular necrosis (ATN), primary and secondary immunosuppression, total dose of steroids in the first 3 months, development of acute rejection and post-transplant hypertension. Using univariate analysis, the significant predictors for graft survival were HLA matching, type of primary urinary recontinuity, time to diuresis, ATN, acute rejection and post-transplant hypertension. The multivariate analysis restricted the significance to acute rejection and post-transplant hypertension. The independent determinants of graft survival in live-donor pediatric and adolescent renal transplant recipients are acute rejection and post-transplant hypertension.

Nonparametric and Semiparametric Regression Estimation for Length-biased Survival Data

PubMed Central

Shen, Yu; Ning, Jing; Qin, Jing

2016-01-01

For the past several decades, nonparametric and semiparametric modeling for conventional right-censored survival data has been investigated intensively under a noninformative censoring mechanism. However, these methods may not be applicable for analyzing right-censored survival data that arise from prevalent cohorts when the failure times are subject to length-biased sampling. This review article is intended to provide a summary of some newly developed methods as well as established methods for analyzing length-biased data. PMID:27086362

Evaluation of outcome and prognostic factors for dogs living greater than one year after diagnosis of osteosarcoma: 90 cases (1997–2008)

PubMed Central

Culp, William T. N.; Olea-Popelka, Francisco; Sefton, Jennifer; Aldridge, Charles F.; Withrow, Stephen J.; Lafferty, Mary H.; Rebhun, Robert B.; Kent, Michael S.; Ehrhart, Nicole

2015-01-01

Objective To evaluate clinical characteristics, outcome, and prognostic variables in a cohort of dogs surviving > 1 year after an initial diagnosis of osteosarcoma. Design Retrospective case series. Animals 90 client-owned dogs. Procedures Medical records for an 11-year period from 1997 through 2008 were reviewed, and patients with appendicular osteosarcoma that lived > 1 year after initial histopathologic diagnosis were studied. Variables including signalment, weight, serum alkaline phosphatase activity, tumor location, surgery, and adjuvant therapies were recorded. Median survival times were calculated by means of a Kaplan-Meier survival function. Univariate analysis was conducted to compare the survival function for categorical variables, and the Cox proportional hazard model was used to evaluate the likelihood of death > 1 year after diagnosis on the basis of the selected risk factors. Results 90 dogs met the inclusion criteria; clinical laboratory information was not available in all cases. Median age was 8.2 years (range, 2.7 to 13.3 years), and median weight was 38 kg (83.6 lb; range, 21 to 80 kg [46.2 to 176 lb]). Serum alkaline phosphatase activity was high in 29 of 60 (48%) dogs. The most common tumor location was the distal portion of the radius (54/90 [60%]). Eighty-nine of 90 (99%) dogs underwent surgery, and 78 (87%) received chemotherapy. Overall, 49 of 90 (54%) dogs developed metastatic disease. The median survival time beyond 1 year was 243 days (range, 1 to 1,899 days). Dogs that developed a surgical-site infection after limb-sparing surgery had a significantly improved prognosis > 1 year after osteosarcoma diagnosis, compared with dogs that did not develop infections. Conclusions and Clinical Relevance Results of the present study indicated that dogs with an initial diagnosis of osteosarcoma that lived > 1 year had a median survival time beyond the initial year of approximately 8 months. As reported previously, the development of a surgical-site infection in dogs undergoing a limb-sparing surgery significantly affected prognosis and warrants further study. PMID:25356715

Application of hazard models for patients with breast cancer in Cuba

PubMed Central

Alfonso, Anet Garcia; de Oca, Néstor Arcia Montes

2011-01-01

There has been a rapid development in hazard models and survival analysis in the last decade. This article aims to assess the overall survival time of breast cancer in Cuba, as well as to determine plausible factors that may have a significant impact in the survival time. The data are obtained from the National Cancer Register of Cuba. The data set used in this study relates to 6381 patients diagnosed with breast cancer between January 2000 and December 2002. Follow-up data are available until the end of December 2007, by which time 2167 (33.9%) had died and 4214 (66.1%) were still alive. The adequacy of six parametric models is assessed by using their Akaike information criterion values. Five of the six parametric models (Exponential, Weibull, Log-logistic, Lognormal, and Generalized Gamma) are parameterized by using the accelerated failure-time metric, and the Gompertz model is parameterized by using the proportional hazard metric. The main result in terms of survival is found for the different categories of the clinical stage covariate. The survival time among patients who have been diagnosed at early stage of breast cancer is about 60% higher than the one among patients diagnosed at more advanced stage of the disease. Differences among provinces have not been found. The age is another significant factor, but there is no important difference between patient ages. PMID:21686138

Application of hazard models for patients with breast cancer in Cuba.

PubMed

Alfonso, Anet Garcia; de Oca, Néstor Arcia Montes

2011-01-01

There has been a rapid development in hazard models and survival analysis in the last decade. This article aims to assess the overall survival time of breast cancer in Cuba, as well as to determine plausible factors that may have a significant impact in the survival time. The data are obtained from the National Cancer Register of Cuba. The data set used in this study relates to 6381 patients diagnosed with breast cancer between January 2000 and December 2002. Follow-up data are available until the end of December 2007, by which time 2167 (33.9%) had died and 4214 (66.1%) were still alive. The adequacy of six parametric models is assessed by using their Akaike information criterion values. Five of the six parametric models (Exponential, Weibull, Log-logistic, Lognormal, and Generalized Gamma) are parameterized by using the accelerated failure-time metric, and the Gompertz model is parameterized by using the proportional hazard metric. The main result in terms of survival is found for the different categories of the clinical stage covariate. The survival time among patients who have been diagnosed at early stage of breast cancer is about 60% higher than the one among patients diagnosed at more advanced stage of the disease. Differences among provinces have not been found. The age is another significant factor, but there is no important difference between patient ages.

An exploratory discrete-time multilevel analysis of the effect of social support on the survival of elderly people in China

PubMed Central

Feng, Zhixin; Jones, Kelvyn; Wang, Wenfei Winnie

2015-01-01

This study undertakes a survival analysis of elderly persons in China using Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey 2002–2008. Employing discrete-time multilevel models, we explored the effect of social support on the survival of elderly people in China. This study focuses on objective (living arrangements and received support) and subjective activities (perceived support) of social support, finding that the effect of different activities of social support on the survival of elderly people varies according to the availability of different support resources. Specifically, living with a spouse, financial independence, perceiving care support from any resource is associated with higher survival rates for elderly people. Separate analysis focusing on urban elderly and rural elderly revealed broadly similar results. There is a larger difference between those perceiving care support from family or social service and not perceiving care support in urban areas comparing to those in rural areas. Those who cannot pay medical expenses are the least likely to survive. The higher level of economic development in province has no significant effect on the survival of elderly people for the whole sample model and the elderly people in urban areas; however, there is a negative influence on the survival of the rural elderly people. PMID:25703671

Development of prognostic model for predicting survival after retrograde placement of ureteral stent in advanced gastrointestinal cancer patients and its evaluation by decision curve analysis.

PubMed

Kawano, Shingo; Komai, Yoshinobu; Ishioka, Junichiro; Sakai, Yasuyuki; Fuse, Nozomu; Ito, Masaaki; Kihara, Kazunori; Saito, Norio

2016-10-01

The aim of this study was to determine risk factors for survival after retrograde placement of ureteral stents and develop a prognostic model for advanced gastrointestinal tract (GIT: esophagus, stomach, colon and rectum) cancer patients. We examined the clinical records of 122 patients who underwent retrograde placement of a ureteral stent against malignant extrinsic ureteral obstruction. A prediction model for survival after stenting was developed. We compared its clinical usefulness with our previous model based on the results from nephrostomy cases by decision curve analysis. Median follow-up period was 201 days (8-1490) and 97 deaths occurred. The 1-year survival rate in this cohort was 29%. Based on multivariate analysis, primary site of colon origin, absence of retroperitoneal lymph node metastasis and serum albumin >3g/dL were significantly associated with a prolonged survival time. To develop a prognostic model, we divided the patients into 3 risk groups of favorable: 0-1 factors (N.=53), intermediate: 2 risk factors (N.=54), and poor: 3 risk factors (N.=15). There were significant differences in the survival profiles of these 3 risk groups (P<0.0001). Decision curve analyses revealed that the current model has a superior net benefit than our previous model for most of the examined probabilities. We have developed a novel prognostic model for GIT cancer patients who were treated with retrograde placement of a ureteral stent. The current model should help urologists and medical oncologists to predict survival in cases of malignant extrinsic ureteral obstruction.

Learning Through Survival: An Approach to Foreign Language Teaching. A Program Description and Evaluation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Travers, Claudia S.; Reilly, Joseph T. M.

A foreign travel program for eighth grade French language students from Shoreham, New York was developed to provide language speaking practice in Quebec, Canada. The program was designed to allow students to spend as much time as possible speaking the language and interacting with the people. The following "survival through speaking"…

[Retrospective cohort study on period of incubation and survival among former commercial plasma donors infected with HIV in Hebei province].

PubMed

Chen, Su-liang; Bai, Guang-yi; Li, Qiao-min; Li, Bao-jun; Hui, Yan-liang; Liang, Liang; Wang, Wei; Chen, Zhi-qiang; Lu, Xin-li; Wang, Xiao-feng; Zhang, Yu-qi; Zhao, Hong-ru

2012-04-01

To examine the state of incubation period and survival time of former commercial plasma donors (FCPDs) infected with HIV. All objects infected with HIV were from Hebei province and found from general investigation for FCPDs in 1995. The infector cohort by 142 cases was used to estimate incubation period. In the infector cohort, the time which infectors entered the cohort was their infection time, which was the middle value of the origin date, which was January 1, 1995. The onset of AIDS was defined as an outcome event. End point of observation was Dec 31, 2010. There were 192 months in all from beginning to end. The AIDS cohort by 57 cases was used to estimate the survival of the patients. In the patient cohort, the time of AIDS onset was defined as the time entering the cohort, and death of AIDS was defined as an outcome event. The cumulative incidence ratio, cumulative mortality, illness intensity and mortality intensity were analyzed through Kaplan-Meier. During the observation period, 123 cases of 142 infectors developed into AIDS, the cumulative incidence was 86.42% (123/142) and the intensity was 8.53/100 person-years and the median time of incubation period was 112.0 months (95%CI: 108.8 - 115.2). The death dates of 57 patients were from 1 to 24 months after onset. The cumulative mortality was 100%, and the intensity was 250.66/100 person-years and the median survival time was 3.0 months (95%CI: 1.8 - 4.2). It was estimated that the median time was 115.0 months (9.6 years) from infection to death. The median times of incubation and median survival time were 112.0 and 3.0 months, respectively.

Effects of fine sediment, hyporheic flow, and spawning site characteristics on survival and development of bull trout embryos

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bowerman, Tracy; Neilson, Bethany; Budy, Phaedra

2014-01-01

Successful spawning is imperative for the persistence of salmonid populations, but relatively little research has been conducted to evaluate factors affecting early life-stage survival for bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus), a threatened char. We conducted a field experiment to assess the relationship between site-specific environmental factors and bull trout embryo survival and fry emergence timing. Survival from egg to hatch was negatively related to percent fine sediment (<1 mm) in the redd and positively related to the strength of downwelling at spawning sites. Survival of eggs to fry emergence was also negatively related to fine sediment, and the best statistical models included additional variables that described the rate of downwelling and intragravel flow within the incubation environment. Fry emerged at an earlier stage in development from redds with high percentages of fine sediment. Increased hydraulic conductivity via redd construction and selection of spawning sites with strong downwelling appear to enhance hyporheic flow rates and bull trout egg survival, but early life-stage success may ultimately be limited by intrusion of fine sediment into the incubation environment.

Development and Validation of a Quality Assurance Score for Robot-assisted Radical Cystectomy: A 10-year Analysis.

PubMed

Hussein, Ahmed A; Dibaj, Shiva; Hinata, Nobuyuki; Field, Erinn; O'leary, Kathleen; Kuvshinoff, Boris; Mohler, James L; Wilding, Gregory; Guru, Khurshid A

2016-11-01

To develop quality assessment tool to evaluate surgical performance for robot-assisted radical cystectomy program. A prospectively maintained quality assurance database of 425 consecutive robot-assisted radical cystectomies performed by a single surgeon between 2005 and 2015 was retrospectively reviewed. Potentially modifiable factors, related to the management and perioperative care of patients, were used to evaluate patient care. Criteria included the following: preoperative (administration of neoadjuvant chemotherapy); operative (operative time <6.5 hours and estimated blood loss <500 cc); pathologic (negative soft tissue surgical margins and lymph node yield ≥20); and postoperative (no high-grade complications, readmission, or noncancer-related mortality within 30 days).The Quality Cystectomy Score (QCS) was developed (1 star: achieving ≤2 criteria or mortality within 30 days; 2 stars: 3 or 4 criteria met; 3 stars: 5 or 6 criteria met; and 4 stars: 7 or all criteria met). Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression models were fitted to test for the association between QCS and survival outcomes. Most patients (85%) achieved at least 3 stars, and more patients achieved 4 stars with time. High QCS was associated with better recurrence-free, cancer-specific, and overall survival (P values <.05). None of the patients with 1-star were alive at 1 year. Patients with 4 stars achieved the best survival rates (recurrence-free survival [62%], cancer-specific survival [70%], and overall survival [53%] at 5 years) (log rank P < .0001). Continuous assessment for quality improvement facilitated implementation and maintenance of robot-assisted program for bladder cancer. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Nonparametric Discrete Survival Function Estimation with Uncertain Endpoints Using an Internal Validation Subsample

PubMed Central

Zee, Jarcy; Xie, Sharon X.

2015-01-01

Summary When a true survival endpoint cannot be assessed for some subjects, an alternative endpoint that measures the true endpoint with error may be collected, which often occurs when obtaining the true endpoint is too invasive or costly. We develop an estimated likelihood function for the situation where we have both uncertain endpoints for all participants and true endpoints for only a subset of participants. We propose a nonparametric maximum estimated likelihood estimator of the discrete survival function of time to the true endpoint. We show that the proposed estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal. We demonstrate through extensive simulations that the proposed estimator has little bias compared to the naïve Kaplan-Meier survival function estimator, which uses only uncertain endpoints, and more efficient with moderate missingness compared to the complete-case Kaplan-Meier survival function estimator, which uses only available true endpoints. Finally, we apply the proposed method to a dataset for estimating the risk of developing Alzheimer's disease from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. PMID:25916510

Analysis of individual- and time-specific covariate effects on survival of Serinus serinus in north-eastern Spain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conroy, M.J.; Senar, J.C.; Domenech, J.

2002-01-01

We developed models for the analysis of recapture data for 2678 serins (Serinus serinus) ringed in north-eastern Spain since 1985. We investigated several time- and individual-specific factors as potential predictors of overall mortality and dispersal patterns, and of gender and age differences in these patterns. Time-specific covariates included minimum daily temperature, days below freezing, and abundance of a strong competitor, siskins (Carduelis spinus) during winter, and maximum temperature and rainfall during summer. Individual covariates included body mass (i.e. body condition), and wing length (i.e. flying ability), and interactions between body mass and environmental factors. We found little support of a predictive relationship between environmental factors and survival, but good evidence of relationships between body mass and survival, especially for juveniles. Juvenile survival appears to vary in a curvilinear manner with increasing mass, suggesting that there may exist an optimal mass beyond which increases are detrimental. The mass-survival relationship does seem to be influenced by at least one environmental factor, namely the abundance of wintering siskins. When siskins are abundant, increases in body mass appear to relate strongly to increasing survival. When siskin numbers are average or low the relationship is largely reversed, suggesting that the presence of strong competition mitigates the otherwise largely negative aspects of greater body mass. Wing length in juveniles also appears to be related positively to survival, perhaps largely due to the influence of a few unusually large juveniles with adult-like survival. Further work is needed to test these relationships, ideally under experimentation.

Conditional survival of all primary brain tumor patients by age, behavior, and histology.

PubMed

Porter, Kimberly R; McCarthy, Bridget J; Berbaum, Michael L; Davis, Faith G

2011-01-01

Survival statistics commonly reflect survival from the time of diagnosis but do not take into account survival already achieved after a diagnosis. The objective of this study was to provide conditional survival estimates for brain tumor patients as a more accurate measure of survival for those who have already survived for a specified amount of time after diagnosis. Data on primary malignant and nonmalignant brain tumor cases diagnosed from 1985-2005 from selected SEER state cancer registries were obtained. Relative survival up to 15 years postdiagnosis and varying relative conditional survival rates were computed using the life-table method. The overall 1-year relative survival estimate derived from time of diagnosis was 67.8% compared to the 6-month relative conditional survival rate of 85.7% for 6-month survivors (the probability of surviving to 1 year given survival to 6 months). The 10-year overall relative survival rate was 49.5% from time of diagnosis compared to the 8-year relative conditional survival rate of 79.2% for 2-year survivors. Conditional survival estimates and standard survival estimates varied by histology, behavior, and age at diagnosis. The 5-year relative survival estimate derived from time of diagnosis for glioblastoma was 3.6% compared to the 3-year relative conditional survival rate of 36.4% for 2-year survivors. For most nonmalignant tumors, the difference between relative survival and the corresponding conditional survival estimates were minimal. Older age groups had greater numeric gains in survival but lower conditional survival estimates than other age groups. Similar findings were seen for other conditional survival intervals. Conditional survival is a useful disease surveillance measure for clinicians and brain tumor survivors to provide them with better 'real-time' estimates and hope. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Survival in patients with metachronous second primary lung cancer.

PubMed

Ha, Duc; Choi, Humberto; Chevalier, Cory; Zell, Katrina; Wang, Xiao-Feng; Mazzone, Peter J

2015-01-01

Four to 10% of patients with non-small cell lung cancer subsequently develop a metachronous second primary lung cancer. The decision to perform surveillance or screening imaging for patients with potentially cured lung cancer must take into account the outcomes expected when detecting metachronous second primaries. To assess potential survival differences between patients with metachronous second primary lung cancer compared to matched patients with first primary lung cancer. We retrospectively reviewed patients diagnosed with lung cancer at the Cleveland Clinic (2006-2010). Metachronous second primary lung cancer was defined as lung cancer diagnosed after a 4-year, disease-free interval from the first lung cancer, or if there were two different histologic subtypes diagnosed at different times. Patients with first primary lung cancer diagnosed in the same time period served as control subjects. Propensity score matching was performed using age, sex, smoking history, histologic subtype, and collaborative stage, with a 1:3 case-control ratio. Survival analyses were performed by Cox proportional hazards modeling and Kaplan-Meier estimates. Forty-four patients met criteria for having a metachronous second primary lung cancer. There were no statistically significant differences between case subjects and control subjects in prognostic variables. The median survival time and 2-year overall survival rate for the metachronous second primary group, compared with control subjects, were as follows: 11.8 versus 18.4 months (P = 0.18) and 31.0 versus 40.9% (P = 0.28). The survival difference was largest in those with stage I metachronous second primaries (median survival time, 26.8 vs. 60.4 mo, P = 0.09; 2-year overall survival, 56.3 vs. 71.2%, P = 0.28). Patients with stage I metachronous second primary lung cancer may have worse survival than those who present with a first primary lung cancer. This could influence the benefit-risk balance of screening the high-risk cohort with a previously treated lung cancer.

Survival of Campylobacter jejuni and Campylobacter coli in retail broiler meat stored at -20, 4 and 12C, and development of predictive models of survival based on temperature and time

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Retail broiler meat undergoes variable freezing and refrigeration temperatures during storage, transportation, display in retail outlets and in consumers’ refrigerators. Due to the relatively high prevalence of Campylobacter found in retail broilers and the low infective dose required to cause human...

Predicting analysis time in events-driven clinical trials using accumulating time-to-event surrogate information.

PubMed

Wang, Jianming; Ke, Chunlei; Yu, Zhinuan; Fu, Lei; Dornseif, Bruce

2016-05-01

For clinical trials with time-to-event endpoints, predicting the accrual of the events of interest with precision is critical in determining the timing of interim and final analyses. For example, overall survival (OS) is often chosen as the primary efficacy endpoint in oncology studies, with planned interim and final analyses at a pre-specified number of deaths. Often, correlated surrogate information, such as time-to-progression (TTP) and progression-free survival, are also collected as secondary efficacy endpoints. It would be appealing to borrow strength from the surrogate information to improve the precision of the analysis time prediction. Currently available methods in the literature for predicting analysis timings do not consider utilizing the surrogate information. In this article, using OS and TTP as an example, a general parametric model for OS and TTP is proposed, with the assumption that disease progression could change the course of the overall survival. Progression-free survival, related both to OS and TTP, will be handled separately, as it can be derived from OS and TTP. The authors seek to develop a prediction procedure using a Bayesian method and provide detailed implementation strategies under certain assumptions. Simulations are performed to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. An application to a real study is also provided. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

End points for adjuvant therapy trials: has the time come to accept disease-free survival as a surrogate end point for overall survival?

PubMed

Gill, Sharlene; Sargent, Daniel

2006-06-01

The intent of adjuvant therapy is to eradicate micro-metastatic residual disease following curative resection with the goal of preventing or delaying recurrence. The time-honored standard for demonstrating efficacy of new adjuvant therapies is an improvement in overall survival (OS). This typically requires phase III trials of large sample size with lengthy follow-up. With the intent of reducing the cost and time of completing such trials, there is considerable interest in developing alternative or surrogate end points. A surrogate end point may be employed as a substitute to directly assess the effects of an intervention on an already accepted clinical end point such as mortality. When used judiciously, surrogate end points can accelerate the evaluation of new therapies, resulting in the more timely dissemination of effective therapies to patients. The current review provides a perspective on the suitability and validity of disease-free survival (DFS) as an alternative end point for OS. Criteria for establishing surrogacy and the advantages and limitations associated with the use of DFS as a primary end point in adjuvant clinical trials and as the basis for approval of new adjuvant therapies are discussed.

Cyclicality, Mortality, and the Value of Time: The Case of Coffee Price Fluctuations and Child Survival in Colombia

PubMed Central

Miller, Grant; Urdinola, B. Piedad

2011-01-01

Recent studies demonstrate procyclical mortality in wealthy countries, but there are reasons to expect a countercyclical relationship in developing nations. We investigate how child survival in Colombia responds to fluctuations in world Arabica coffee prices – and document starkly procyclical child deaths. In studying this result’s behavioral underpinnings, we highlight that: (1) The leading determinants of child health are inexpensive but require considerable time, and (2) As the value of time declines with falling coffee prices, so does the relative price of health. We find a variety of direct evidence consistent with the primacy of time in child health production. PMID:22090662

A simple prognostic model for overall survival in metastatic renal cell carcinoma.

PubMed

Assi, Hazem I; Patenaude, Francois; Toumishey, Ethan; Ross, Laura; Abdelsalam, Mahmoud; Reiman, Tony

2016-01-01

The primary purpose of this study was to develop a simpler prognostic model to predict overall survival for patients treated for metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) by examining variables shown in the literature to be associated with survival. We conducted a retrospective analysis of patients treated for mRCC at two Canadian centres. All patients who started first-line treatment were included in the analysis. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model was constructed using a stepwise procedure. Patients were assigned to risk groups depending on how many of the three risk factors from the final multivariate model they had. There were three risk factors in the final multivariate model: hemoglobin, prior nephrectomy, and time from diagnosis to treatment. Patients in the high-risk group (two or three risk factors) had a median survival of 5.9 months, while those in the intermediate-risk group (one risk factor) had a median survival of 16.2 months, and those in the low-risk group (no risk factors) had a median survival of 50.6 months. In multivariate analysis, shorter survival times were associated with hemoglobin below the lower limit of normal, absence of prior nephrectomy, and initiation of treatment within one year of diagnosis.

A simple prognostic model for overall survival in metastatic renal cell carcinoma

PubMed Central

Assi, Hazem I.; Patenaude, Francois; Toumishey, Ethan; Ross, Laura; Abdelsalam, Mahmoud; Reiman, Tony

2016-01-01

Introduction: The primary purpose of this study was to develop a simpler prognostic model to predict overall survival for patients treated for metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) by examining variables shown in the literature to be associated with survival. Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis of patients treated for mRCC at two Canadian centres. All patients who started first-line treatment were included in the analysis. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model was constructed using a stepwise procedure. Patients were assigned to risk groups depending on how many of the three risk factors from the final multivariate model they had. Results: There were three risk factors in the final multivariate model: hemoglobin, prior nephrectomy, and time from diagnosis to treatment. Patients in the high-risk group (two or three risk factors) had a median survival of 5.9 months, while those in the intermediate-risk group (one risk factor) had a median survival of 16.2 months, and those in the low-risk group (no risk factors) had a median survival of 50.6 months. Conclusions: In multivariate analysis, shorter survival times were associated with hemoglobin below the lower limit of normal, absence of prior nephrectomy, and initiation of treatment within one year of diagnosis. PMID:27217858

Life-table studies revealed significant effects of deforestation on the development and survivorship of Anopheles minimus larvae.

PubMed

Wang, Xiaoming; Zhou, Guofa; Zhong, Daibin; Wang, Xiaoling; Wang, Ying; Yang, Zhaoqing; Cui, Liwang; Yan, Guiyun

2016-06-06

Many developing countries are experiencing rapid ecological changes such as deforestation and shifting agricultural practices. These environmental changes may have an important consequence on malaria due to their impact on vector survival and reproduction. Despite intensive deforestation and malaria transmission in the China-Myanmar border area, the impact of deforestation on malaria vectors in the border area is unknown. We conducted life table studies on Anopheles minimus larvae to determine the pupation rate and development time in microcosms under deforested, banana plantation, and forested environments. The pupation rate of An. minimus was 3.8 % in the forested environment. It was significantly increased to 12.5 % in banana plantations and to 52.5 % in the deforested area. Deforestation reduced larval-to-pupal development time by 1.9-3.3 days. Food supplementation to aquatic habitats in forested environments and banana plantations significantly increased larval survival rate to a similar level as in the deforested environment. Deforestation enhanced the survival and development of An. minimus larvae, a major malaria vector in the China-Myanmar border area. Experimental determination of the life table parameters on mosquito larvae under a variety of environmental conditions is valuable to model malaria transmission dynamics and impact by climate and environmental changes.

First recovery in anorexia nervosa patients in the long-term course: a discrete-time survival analysis.

PubMed

Herzog, W; Schellberg, D; Deter, H C

1997-02-01

The results of a 12-year follow-up study of occurrence and timing of first recovery in 69 hospitalized patients with severe anorexia nervosa (AN) are presented. For the first time discrete-time survival analysis methods were used to determine the likelihood of recovery in AN patients. Furthermore, predictors gleaned from pretreatment-posttreatment studies of long-term outcome in AN could be evaluated as to their effect on a change in the time course structure of the likelihood of first recovery. Results show that AN condition did not improve until after 6 years after the first inpatient treatment in 50% of patients. However, a restricter-type AN and low serum creatinine levels were predictors for earlier recovery. One specific effect was that AN patients who show purging behavior in combination with additional social disturbances have a lower chance of recovering. The use of discrete-time survival analysis methodology in further prospective studies will contribute to the development of more tailored treatment of AN, which also takes the individual phase of illness and specific aspects of the symptomatology into account.

A blastema-predominant canine renal nephroblastoma with gingival metastasis: case report and literature review.

PubMed

Chen, Bo; Li, Wen-Ta; Wang, Fun-In

2018-05-01

Nephroblastomas are uncommon embryonal tumors in dogs. We report herein a blastema-predominant nephroblastoma with gingival metastasis in an 8-y-old Miniature Pinscher dog. Histologically, the mass was composed mainly of blastemal elements with minor epithelial and mesenchymal differentiation. Metastatic masses in the gingiva had histologic and immunohistochemical features similar to those of the primary renal nephroblastoma. Neoplastic cells were extensively positive for both vimentin and PAX8, and scattered positive for cytokeratin. Using the clinical staging of human Wilms tumor, we staged our case as stage IV with <4 mo of survival time. We summarized previous studies of canine renal and spinal nephroblastomas, and analyzed the correlations among clinical staging, histologic classification, and mean survival time of dogs with renal nephroblastomas. Clinical staging was significantly correlated with survival time, as shown in humans. In dogs, however, additional factors can potentially influence the outcome of treatment and disease development.

Developing a mentoring program in clinical nutrition.

PubMed

Martindale, Robert G; McClave, Stephen; Heyland, Daren; August, David

2010-01-01

Mentoring programs in nutrition are essential to the survival of clinical nutrition as we know it today. The best method known to maintain an influx of talent to a discipline is by developing an active mentoring program. This paper describes 1 concept for development of a viable mentor program. Mentoring should be flexible and based on mentees' training background. Realistic goals should be set, with written and verbal feedback, to sustain a successful program. Programs should incorporate the Socratic Method whenever possible. Factors that leave doubt about the survival of nutrition as a viable area of focus for physicians include the inability to generate adequate funds to support oneself and limited numbers of mentors available with dedicated time to be a mentor. A healthy, sustainable mentoring program in clinical nutrition will ensure survival of physician-based nutrition programs.

Modeling microbial survival in buildup biofilm for complex medical devices

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background Flexible endoscopes undergo repeated rounds of patient-use and reprocessing. Some evidence indicates that there is an accumulation or build-up of organic material that occurs over time in endoscope channels. This "buildup biofilm" (BBF) develops as a result of cyclical exposure to wet and dry phases during usage and reprocessing. This study investigated whether the BBF matrix represents a greater challenge to disinfectant efficacy and microbial eradication than traditional biofilm (TBF), which forms when a surface is constantly bathed in fluid. Methods Using the MBEC (Minimum Biofilm Eradication Concentration) system, a unique modelling approach was developed to evaluate microbial survival in BBF formed by repetitive cycles of drying, disinfectant exposure and re-exposure to the test organism. This model mimics the cumulative effect of the reprocessing protocol on flexible endoscopes. Glutaraldehyde (GLUT) and accelerated hydrogen peroxide (AHP) were evaluated to assess the killing of microbes in TBF and BBF. Results The data showed that the combination of an organic matrix and aldehyde disinfection quickly produced a protective BBF that facilitated high levels of organism survival. In cross-linked BBF formed under high nutrient conditions the maximum colony forming units (CFU) reached ~6 Log10 CFU/peg. However, if an oxidizing agent was used for disinfection and if organic levels were kept low, organism survival did not occur. A key finding was that once established, the microbial load of BBF formed by GLUT exposure had a faster rate of accumulation than in TBF. The rate of biofilm survival post high-level disinfection (HLD) determined by the maximum Log10CFU/initial Log10CFU for E. faecalis and P. aeruginosa in BBF was 10 and 8.6 respectively; significantly different compared to a survival rate in TBF of ~2 for each organism. Data from indirect outgrowth testing demonstrated for the first time that there is organism survival in the matrix. Both TBF and BBF had surviving organisms when GLUT was used. For AHP survival was seen less frequently in BBF than in TBF. Conclusion This BBF model demonstrated for the first time that survival of a wide range of microorganisms does occur in BBF, with significantly more rapid outgrowth compared to TBF. This is most pronounced when GLUT is used compared to AHP. The data supports the need for meticulous cleaning of reprocessed endoscopes since the presence of organic material and microorganisms prevents effective disinfection when GLUT and AHP are used. However, cross-linking agents like GLUT are not as effective when there is BBF. The data from the MBEC model of BBF suggest that for flexible endoscopes that are repeatedly used and reprocessed, the assurance of effective high-level disinfection may decrease if BBF develops within the channels. PMID:19426471

[The survival and development conditions of community-based organizations for HIV/AIDS prevention and control among men who have sex with men in three Chinese cities].

PubMed

Fu, Xiaojing; Shan, Duo; Qi, Jinlei; Ouyang, Lin; Wang, Hui; Fu, Jie; Sun, Jiangping

2015-06-01

To investigate the survival and development conditions of community-based organizations (CBOs) for HIV/AIDS prevention and control among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Chinese cities including Shanghai, Hangzhou, Chongqing. This study employed both qualitative (focus groups) and quantitative (questionnaire survey) methods to obtain information from 15 MSM CBOs in three Chinese cities. The mean work time of the 15 CBOs for HIV/AIDS prevention and control among MSM was 6.7 years (2.1-11.3 years), and the majority of their funds was from international cooperation projects (80 447 000 RMB, 73.0%) from 2006 to 2013. The survival cost of MSM CBOs apart from expenditure of activities was 2 240-435 360 RMB per year. As it was shown in the graph, the survival and development of MSM CBOs was closely related to the development of international cooperation projects. There was a few small size MSM CBOs taking part in the prevention and control of HIV/AIDS and their work content was limited before 2006. From 2006 to 2008, some international cooperation projects were launched in China, such as the China Global Fund AIDS project and the China-Gates Foundation HIV Prevention Cooperation program. As a result, the number of MSM CBOs was increased sharply, and both the scale and 2012, the performance of these programs further promote the establishment of new MSM CBOs and the development of all MSM CBOs with regard to the work places, full-time staffs, work contents, work patterns and the specific targeted population. After 2012, most international cooperation programs were completed and the local department of disease prevention and control continued to cooperate with MSM CBOs. However, the degree of support funds from the local department was different among different regions. Where the funds were below the half of program funds, the development of MSM CBOs ceased and work slowed down. Besides, there were still some constraints for the survival and development of MSM CBOs, such as insufficient funds, no legitimate identity, the outflow of talents and the unsustainable development. The survival and development of MSM CBOs was closely related to the development of international cooperation projects in China. Some departments of disease prevention and control took over the cooperation with MSM CBOs when the international cooperation projects were completed. Given the survival cost of MSM CBOs and the constraints of MSM CBOs development, it needs further investigation on how to ensure the local departments of disease prevention and control to take over the cooperation with MSM CBOs and how to cooperate with MSM CBOs.

Determine the Influence of Time Held in “Knockdown” Anesthesia on Survival and Stress of Surgically Implanted Juvenile Salmonids

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Woodley, Christa M.; Wagner, Katie A.; Knox, Kasey M.

2012-01-31

The Juvenile Salmon Acoustic Telemetry System (JSATS) was developed for the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers Portland District (USACE) to address questions related to survival and performance measures of juvenile salmonids as they pass through the Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS). Researchers using JSATS acoustic transmitters (ATs) were tasked with standardizing the surgical implantation procedure to ensure that the stressors of handling and surgery on salmonids were consistent and less likely to cause effects of tagging in survival studies. Researchers questioned whether the exposure time in 'knockdown' anesthesia (or induction) to prepare fish for surgery could influence the survivalmore » of study fish (CBSPSC 2011). Currently, fish are held in knockdown anesthesia after they reach Stage 4 anesthesia until the completion of the surgical implantation of a transmitter, varies from 5 to 15 minutes for studies conducted in the Columbia Basin. The Columbia Basin Surgical Protocol Steering Committee (CBSPSC ) expressed concern that its currently recommended 10-minute maximum time limit during which fish are held in anesthetic - tricaine methanesulfonate (MS-222, 80 mg L-1 water) - could increase behavioral and physiological costs, and/or decrease survival of outmigrating juvenile salmonids. In addition, the variability in the time fish are held at Stage 4 could affect the data intended for direct comparison of fish within or among survival studies. Under the current recommended protocol, if fish exceed the 10-minute time limit, they are to be released without surgical implantation, thereby increasing the number of fish handled and endangered species 'take' at the bypass systems for FCRPS survival studies.« less

In vitro effects of household products on Calliphoridae larvae development: implication for forensic entomology.

PubMed

Aubernon, Cindy; Devigne, Cedric; Hedouin, Valery; Gosset, Didier; Charabidze, Damien

2015-01-01

Several parameters can delay the first arrival of flies on a corpse and the subsequent development of the larvae. This study focuses on the development of Lucilia sericata (Diptera: Calliphoridae) (Meigen, 1826) on household chemical-contaminated substrates. bleach, perfume, hydrochloric acid, caustic soda, insecticide, mosquito repellent, and gasoline in quantities consistent with an amount that could possibly be spilled on a corpse were mixed with beef liver to simulate contaminated fleshes. Larvae were bred at 25 °C on these media until emergence. Four developmental parameters were followed: survival rates, development times, sex ratios, and adult sizes. Hydrochloric acid, insecticide, and gasoline killed all larvae. In low quantities, caustic soda and mosquito repellent increased the development time and decreased the adult size. However, high quantities of these chemicals killed all larvae. Lastly, bleach and perfume did not affect the survival rate and barely impacted the development time or adult size. These results demonstrate common household products spilled on a corpse can strongly affect the development of Calliphoridae larvae. The effects of such products should be considered in forensic entomology cases. © 2014 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Clinical chemistry of congenic mice with quantitative trait loci for predicted responses to Trypanosoma congolense infection.

PubMed

Rathkolb, Birgit; Noyes, Harry A; Brass, Andy; Dark, Paul; Fuchs, Helmut; Gailus-Durner, Valérie; Gibson, John; de Angelis, Martin Hrabé; Ogugo, Moses; Iraqi, Fuad; Kemp, Steve J; Naessens, Jan; Pope, Mathew E; Wolf, Eckhard; Agaba, Morris

2009-09-01

Trypanosoma congolense is a protozoan parasite that causes severe diseases in livestock. Three major quantative trait loci (QTL), Tir1, Tir2, and Tir3, control the survival time of mice after infection with T. congolense. Congenic mice carrying the C57BL/6 resistance alleles on the A/J background were developed for each of these loci. The congenic mice were used to physically map the regions containing the QTL gene(s) and to investigate the physiological effect of each locus. Clinical chemistry data for infected A/J, C57BL/6, and BALB/c mice were obtained for 15 analytes at five time points. Congenic mice were assessed for survival, parasitemia, and anemia as well as seven clinical-chemical analytes. The survival times were significantly increased in the Tir1 and Tir2 mice but not Tir3 congenic mice. The survival time of the parental inbred mice correlated negatively with parasitemia but positively with alanine aminotransferase activities in serum, suggesting that inflammatory reactions in the liver had a beneficial effect possibly associated with reduced parasitemia. However, there was no difference in parasitemia or liver enzyme activities of Tir1 and Tir2 congenic mice relative to their controls, showing that survival, parasitemia, and degree of liver damage are not associated with each other, despite the correlation in the parental lines. These data suggest that the congenic loci affect survival but do not affect control of parasite number. They may therefore act by limiting the pathological consequences of T. congolense infection.

Effects of yearling, juvenile and adult survival on reef manta ray (Manta alfredi) demography

PubMed Central

van der Ouderaa, Isabelle B.C.; Tibiriçá, Yara

2016-01-01

Background The trade in manta ray gill plates has considerably increased over the last two decades. The resulting increases in ray mortality, in addition to mortality caused by by-catch, has caused many ray populations to decrease in size. The aim of this study was to ascertain how yearling and juvenile growth and survival, and adult survival and reproduction affect reef manta ray (Manta alfredi) population change, to increase our understanding of manta ray demography and thereby improve conservation research and measures for these fish. Methods We developed a population projection model for reef manta rays, and used published life history data on yearling and juvenile growth and adult reproduction to parameterise the model. Because little is known about reef manta ray yearling and juvenile survival, we conducted our analyses using a range of plausible survival rate values for yearlings, juveniles and adults. Results The model accurately captured observed variation in population growth rate, lifetime reproductive success and cohort generation time in different reef manta ray populations. Our demographic analyses revealed a range of population consequences in response to variation in demographic rates. For example, an increase in yearling or adult survival rates always elicited greater responses in population growth rate, lifetime reproductive success and cohort generation time than the same increase in juvenile survival rate. The population growth rate increased linearly, but lifetime reproductive success and cohort generation time increased at an accelerating rate with increasing yearling or adult survival rates. Hence, even a small increase in survival rate could increase lifetime reproductive success by one pup, and cohort generation time by several years. Elasticity analyses revealed that, depending on survival rate values of all life stages, the population growth rate is either most sensitive to changes in the rate with which juveniles survive but stay juveniles (i.e., do not mature into adults) or to changes in adult survival rate. However, when assessing these results against estimates on population growth and adult survival rates for populations off the coasts of Mozambique and Japan, we found that the population growth rate is predicted to be always most sensitive to changes in the adult survival rate. Discussion It is important to gain an in-depth understanding of reef manta ray life histories, particularly of yearling and adult survival rates, as these can influence reef manta ray population dynamics in a variety of ways. For declining populations in particular, it is crucial to know which life stage should be targeted for their conservation. For one such declining population off the coast of Mozambique, adult annual survival rate has the greatest effect on population growth, and by increasing adult survival by protecting adult aggregation sites, this population’s decline could be halted or even reversed. PMID:27635337

Identification of repaglinide as a therapeutic drug for glioblastoma multiforme.

PubMed

Xiao, Zui Xuan; Chen, Ruo Qiao; Hu, Dian Xing; Xie, Xiao Qiang; Yu, Shang Bin; Chen, Xiao Qian

2017-06-17

Glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) is a highly aggressive brain tumor with a median survival time of only 14 months after treatment. It is urgent to find new therapeutic drugs that increase survival time of GBM patients. To achieve this goal, we screened differentially expressed genes between long-term and short-term survived GBM patients from Gene Expression Omnibus database and found gene expression signature for the long-term survived GBM patients. The signaling networks of all those differentially expressed genes converged to protein binding, extracellular matrix and tissue development as revealed in BiNGO and Cytoscape. Drug repositioning in Connectivity Map by using the gene expression signature identified repaglinide, a first-line drug for diabetes mellitus, as the most promising novel drug for GBM. In vitro experiments demonstrated that repaglinide significantly inhibited the proliferation and migration of human GBM cells. In vivo experiments demonstrated that repaglinide prominently prolonged the median survival time of mice bearing orthotopic glioma. Mechanistically, repaglinide significantly reduced Bcl-2, Beclin-1 and PD-L1 expression in glioma tissues, indicating that repaglinide may exert its anti-cancer effects via apoptotic, autophagic and immune checkpoint signaling. Taken together, repaglinide is likely to be an effective drug to prolong life span of GBM patients. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Returning fire to Ozark Highland forest ecosystems: Effects on advance regeneration

Treesearch

Daniel C. Dey; George Hartman

2005-01-01

In mature forests of the Ozark Highlands, MO, USA, we evaluated fire effects on the survival and growth of tree seedlings and saplings (i.e., advance regeneration), and used this information to develop species-specific models that predict the probability of survival based on initial tree size and number of times burned. A 1000 ha forest area was divided into five units...

Incubation of Phytophthora ramorum-infested leaf debris in soil affects survival, sporulation capacity, and subsequent risk of epidemic development within nurseries

Treesearch

Ebba K. Peterson; Niklaus J. Grünwald; Jennifer L. Parke

2017-01-01

Soilborne inoculum (infested leaf debris which has become incorporated into the soil) may be an important contributor to the persistence of the sudden oak death pathogen Phytophthora ramorum in recurrently positive nurseries. To initiate new epidemics, soilborne inoculum must not only be able to survive over time, but also be capable of producing...

Testing the effect of dietary carotenoids on larval survival, growth and development in the critically endangered southern corroboree frog.

PubMed

Byrne, Phillip G; Silla, Aimee J

2017-03-01

The success of captive breeding programs (CBPs) for threatened species is often limited due to a lack of knowledge of the nutritional conditions required for optimal growth and survival. Carotenoids are powerful antioxidants known to accelerate vertebrate growth and reduce mortality. However, the effect of carotenoids on amphibian life-history traits remains poorly understood. The aim of our study was to use a manipulative laboratory experiment to test the effect of dietary-carotenoid supplementation during the larval life stage on the survival, growth and development of the critically endangered southern corroboree frog (Pseudophryne corroboree). Larvae were fed either a carotenoid supplemented diet or an unsupplemented diet and the survival, growth and development of individuals was monitored and compared. There was no significant effect of dietary treatment on larval survival, growth rate, time taken to reach metamorphosis, or body size at metamorphosis. Our findings provide no evidence that carotenoid supplementation during the larval life stage improves the growth and development of southern corroboree frogs. However, because the carotenoid dose used in our study did not have any detrimental effects on P. corroboree larvae, but has previously been shown to improve adult coloration, immunity, and exercise performance, carotenoid supplementation should be considered when evaluating the nutritional requirements of P. corroboree in captivity. Carotenoid supplementation studies are now required for a diversity of anuran species to determine the effects of carotenoids on amphibian survival, growth and development. Understanding the effects of dietary carotenoids on different life-history traits may assist with amphibian captive breeding and conservation. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Identification of repaglinide as a therapeutic drug for glioblastoma multiforme

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xiao, Zui Xuan; Chen, Ruo Qiao; Hu, Dian Xing

Glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) is a highly aggressive brain tumor with a median survival time of only 14 months after treatment. It is urgent to find new therapeutic drugs that increase survival time of GBM patients. To achieve this goal, we screened differentially expressed genes between long-term and short-term survived GBM patients from Gene Expression Omnibus database and found gene expression signature for the long-term survived GBM patients. The signaling networks of all those differentially expressed genes converged to protein binding, extracellular matrix and tissue development as revealed in BiNGO and Cytoscape. Drug repositioning in Connectivity Map by using the genemore » expression signature identified repaglinide, a first-line drug for diabetes mellitus, as the most promising novel drug for GBM. In vitro experiments demonstrated that repaglinide significantly inhibited the proliferation and migration of human GBM cells. In vivo experiments demonstrated that repaglinide prominently prolonged the median survival time of mice bearing orthotopic glioma. Mechanistically, repaglinide significantly reduced Bcl-2, Beclin-1 and PD-L1 expression in glioma tissues, indicating that repaglinide may exert its anti-cancer effects via apoptotic, autophagic and immune checkpoint signaling. Taken together, repaglinide is likely to be an effective drug to prolong life span of GBM patients. - Highlights: • Gene expression signarue in long-term survived GBM patients are identified from Gene Expression Omnibus database. • Repaglinide is identified as a survival-related drug for GBM via drug repositioning in CMap. • Repaglinide effectively kills GBM cells, inhibits GBM cell migration and increases survival of mice bearing orthotopic glioma. • Repaglinide reduces Bcl-2, Beclin-1 and PD-L1 in GBM tissues.« less

Association of Bystander Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation and Survival According to Ambulance Response Times After Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest.

PubMed

Rajan, Shahzleen; Wissenberg, Mads; Folke, Fredrik; Hansen, Steen Møller; Gerds, Thomas A; Kragholm, Kristian; Hansen, Carolina Malta; Karlsson, Lena; Lippert, Freddy K; Køber, Lars; Gislason, Gunnar H; Torp-Pedersen, Christian

2016-12-20

Bystander-initiated cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) increases patient survival after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, but it is unknown to what degree bystander CPR remains positively associated with survival with increasing time to potential defibrillation. The main objective was to examine the association of bystander CPR with survival as time to advanced treatment increases. We studied 7623 out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients between 2005 and 2011, identified through the nationwide Danish Cardiac Arrest Registry. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to examine the association between time from 911 call to emergency medical service arrival (response time) and survival according to whether bystander CPR was provided (yes or no). Reported are 30-day survival chances with 95% bootstrap confidence intervals. With increasing response times, adjusted 30-day survival chances decreased for both patients with bystander CPR and those without. However, the contrast between the survival chances of patients with versus without bystander CPR increased over time: within 5 minutes, 30-day survival was 14.5% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 12.8-16.4) versus 6.3% (95% CI: 5.1-7.6), corresponding to 2.3 times higher chances of survival associated with bystander CPR; within 10 minutes, 30-day survival chances were 6.7% (95% CI: 5.4-8.1) versus 2.2% (95% CI: 1.5-3.1), corresponding to 3.0 times higher chances of 30-day survival associated with bystander CPR. The contrast in 30-day survival became statistically insignificant when response time was >13 minutes (bystander CPR vs no bystander CPR: 3.7% [95% CI: 2.2-5.4] vs 1.5% [95% CI: 0.6-2.7]), but 30-day survival was still 2.5 times higher associated with bystander CPR. Based on the model and Danish out-of-hospital cardiac arrest statistics, an additional 233 patients could potentially be saved annually if response time was reduced from 10 to 5 minutes and 119 patients if response time was reduced from 7 (the median response time in this study) to 5 minutes. The absolute survival associated with bystander CPR declined rapidly with time. Yet bystander CPR while waiting for an ambulance was associated with a more than doubling of 30-day survival even in case of long ambulance response time. Decreasing ambulance response time by even a few minutes could potentially lead to many additional lives saved every year. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Improvement of vitrification of in vitro produced buffalo embryos with special reference to sex ratio following vitrification

PubMed Central

Mahmoud, K. Gh. M; Scholkamy, T. H; Darwish, S. F

2015-01-01

Cryopreservation and sexing of embryos are integrated into commercial embryo transfer technologies. To improve the effectiveness of vitrification of in vitro produced buffalo embryos, two experiments were conducted. The first evaluated the effect of exposure time (2 and 3 min) and developmental stage (morula and blastocysts) on the viability and development of vitrified buffalo embryos. Morphologically normal embryos and survival rates (re-expansion) significantly increased when vitrified morulae were exposed for 2 min compared to 3 min (P<0.001). On the other hand, morphologically normal and survival rates of blastocysts significantly increased when exposed for 3 min compared to 2 min (P<0.001). However, there were no significant differences between the two developmental stages (morulae and blastocystes) in the percentages of morphologically normal embryos and re-expansion rates after a 24 h culture. The second experiment aimed to evaluate the effect of viability on the sex ratio of buffalo embryos after vitrification and whether male and female embryos survived vitrification differently. A total number of 61 blastocysts were vitrified for 3 min with the same cryoprotectant as experiment 1. Higher percentages of males were recorded for live as compared to dead embryos; however, this difference was not significant. In conclusion, the post-thaw survival and development of in vitro produced morulae and blastocysts were found to be affected by exposure time rather than developmental stage. Survivability had no significant effect on the sex ratio of vitrified blastocysts; nevertheless, the number of surviving males was higher than dead male embryos. PMID:27175197

An integrated analysis of phenotypic selection on insect body size and development time.

PubMed

Eck, Daniel J; Shaw, Ruth G; Geyer, Charles J; Kingsolver, Joel G

2015-09-01

Most studies of phenotypic selection do not estimate selection or fitness surfaces for multiple components of fitness within a unified statistical framework. This makes it difficult or impossible to assess how selection operates on traits through variation in multiple components of fitness. We describe a new generation of aster models that can evaluate phenotypic selection by accounting for timing of life-history transitions and their effect on population growth rate, in addition to survival and reproductive output. We use this approach to estimate selection on body size and development time for a field population of the herbivorous insect, Manduca sexta (Lepidoptera: Sphingidae). Estimated fitness surfaces revealed strong and significant directional selection favoring both larger adult size (via effects on egg counts) and more rapid rates of early larval development (via effects on larval survival). Incorporating the timing of reproduction and its influence on population growth rate into the analysis resulted in larger values for size in early larval development at which fitness is maximized, and weaker selection on size in early larval development. These results illustrate how the interplay of different components of fitness can influence selection on size and development time. This integrated modeling framework can be readily applied to studies of phenotypic selection via multiple fitness components in other systems. © 2015 The Author(s). Evolution © 2015 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Smart Extraction and Analysis System for Clinical Research.

PubMed

Afzal, Muhammad; Hussain, Maqbool; Khan, Wajahat Ali; Ali, Taqdir; Jamshed, Arif; Lee, Sungyoung

2017-05-01

With the increasing use of electronic health records (EHRs), there is a growing need to expand the utilization of EHR data to support clinical research. The key challenge in achieving this goal is the unavailability of smart systems and methods to overcome the issue of data preparation, structuring, and sharing for smooth clinical research. We developed a robust analysis system called the smart extraction and analysis system (SEAS) that consists of two subsystems: (1) the information extraction system (IES), for extracting information from clinical documents, and (2) the survival analysis system (SAS), for a descriptive and predictive analysis to compile the survival statistics and predict the future chance of survivability. The IES subsystem is based on a novel permutation-based pattern recognition method that extracts information from unstructured clinical documents. Similarly, the SAS subsystem is based on a classification and regression tree (CART)-based prediction model for survival analysis. SEAS is evaluated and validated on a real-world case study of head and neck cancer. The overall information extraction accuracy of the system for semistructured text is recorded at 99%, while that for unstructured text is 97%. Furthermore, the automated, unstructured information extraction has reduced the average time spent on manual data entry by 75%, without compromising the accuracy of the system. Moreover, around 88% of patients are found in a terminal or dead state for the highest clinical stage of disease (level IV). Similarly, there is an ∼36% probability of a patient being alive if at least one of the lifestyle risk factors was positive. We presented our work on the development of SEAS to replace costly and time-consuming manual methods with smart automatic extraction of information and survival prediction methods. SEAS has reduced the time and energy of human resources spent unnecessarily on manual tasks.

Using Concurrent Cardiovascular Information to Augment Survival Time Data from Orthostatic Tilt Tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feiveson, Alan H.; Fiedler, James; Lee, Stuart M. M.; Westby, Christian M.; Stenger, Michael B.; Platts, Steven H.

2014-01-01

Orthostatic Intolerance (OI) is the propensity to develop symptoms of fainting during upright standing. OI is associated with changes in heart rate, blood pressure and other measures of cardiac function. Problem: NASA astronauts have shown increased susceptibility to OI on return from space missions. Current methods for counteracting OI in astronauts include fluid loading and the use of compression garments. Multivariate trajectory spread is greater as OI increases. Pairwise comparisons at the same time within subjects allows incorporation of pass/fail outcomes. Path length, convex hull area, and covariance matrix determinant do well as statistics to summarize this spread Missing data problems Time series analysis need many more time points per OTT session treatment of trend? how incorporate survival information?

Effects of temperature and Ca2+ on the larval development of the decapoda crustacean: Eriocheir sinensis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Bo; Du, Nan-Shan; Lai, Wei

2001-09-01

With increasing demand in China for the mitten crab larvae, understanding its survival mechanism gets more important. This research focused on the effects of temperature and Ca2+ on the larval growth and development. Eriocheir sinensis larvae were reared in laboratory under, 21 different combinations of temperature (15, 20, 25°C) and Ca2+ content (120, 130, 140, 150, 160, 170, 180 mg/l) and constant salinity (20) and pH (8). The results suggested that the survival rate increases with temperature and Ca2+ content. These combinations of temperature and Ca2+ content maximized survival rate in our study and it may be the optimum water environmental conditions for culturing, the larvae. To predict surviving larvae number under different water environmental conditions, 21 dynamic mathematical models were developed. This for the first time observation of the zoeal VI larvae of the Changjiang River E. sinesis population showed that they occurred under stressed water environmental conditions: temperature of 15°C and Ca2+ content of 120, 130 mg/l.

Malignant melanoma in 63 dogs (2001-2011): the effect of carboplatin chemotherapy on survival.

PubMed

Brockley, L K; Cooper, M A; Bennett, P F

2013-01-01

The aim of the study was to compare the effect of carboplatin chemotherapy on the survival of canine patients diagnosed with malignant melanoma after loco-regional control or as a sole therapy. A retrospective study of 63 dogs with oral, digital or cutaneous malignant melanoma treated with surgery and/or chemotherapy was undertaken. Dogs were grouped based on the anatomical site of melanoma development. For oral melanoma, dogs were subclassified into two groups: loco-regional control and gross disease. All patients in the digital and cutaneous groups had achieved loco-regional control with surgery. Comparisons between survival data for each group at each anatomical site were then made. Within the loco-regional control groups survival time was compared between those treated with and without chemotherapy post surgery. For the oral melanoma patients with gross disease survival was compared between those treated with chemotherapy and palliative therapy. The toxicity of carboplatin chemotherapy was evaluated overall. The overall median survival times for patients with oral, digital and cutaneous melanoma were 389, 1,350 days and not reached (with a median follow-up of 776 days) respectively. Median survival time was defined as "not reached" when less than 50% of the subjects died of the disease at the end of the follow-up period, or at the time they were lost to follow-up. The addition of chemotherapy to surgery did not confer a survival benefit in the loco-regional control setting when assessing survival for each anatomical site. For oral melanoma patients with gross disease there was no difference between survival of patients treated with chemotherapy and palliative intent therapy. There was however an improvement in survival in the three dogs that responded to chemotherapy (978 days; p=0.039) compared to the eight non-responders (147 days). On univariate and multivariate analysis, anatomic location was the only variable that was significantly related to survival (p=0.0002 and p=0.009, respectively). The addition of chemotherapy to local treatments for canine melanoma at oral, digital and cutaneous sites did not lead to a significant increase in survival times. Carboplatin was well tolerated and appeared to have activity against oral melanoma in a subset of patients with gross disease that responded to treatment. Carboplatin with piroxicam could be considered for patients with gross disease when more traditional therapies, such as surgery or radiation therapy, are declined or are not available. In the loco-regional control setting, prospective randomised blinded studies with matched control groups are required to determine if chemotherapy has a role in the treatment of these types of cancer.

Factors affecting survival in neonatal surgery unit in a tertiary care university hospital during 26 years.

PubMed

Özden, Önder; Karnak, İbrahim; Çiftçi, Arbay Özden; Tanyel, F Cahit; Şenocak, Mehmet Emin

2016-01-01

This clinical study was designed to evaluate mortality rate and the factors that may affect survival in neonatal surgery unit. Randomly chosen 300 (ß: 0.20) patients among 1,439 patients treated in neonatal surgery unit during years 1983 to 2009, were evaluated retrospectively. The patients were separated into three groups according to date of treatment; Group A: 1983 - 1995, Group B: 1996 - 2005 and Group C: 2005 - 2009. M/F ratios did not differ between non-survived and survived patient populations. Mortality rates were 37%, 22% and 13% in Group A, B, and C respectively (p < 0.001). Parenteral nutrition, maternal age, time until admission and gestational age did not affect mortality rate, however median age of newborn was lower in non-survived cases (1 day vs. 3 days, p < 0.001). Associating abnormality, low birth weight ( < 1,500 g), associating sepsis, need of globulin and requirement of respiratory support were determinants of lower survival (p < 0.001). The mortality rate for patients that underwent thoracotomy (42%) and laparotomy (41%) were higher than patients that underwent other operations (8%) and observation (10%) (p < 0.001). Diaphragmatic hernia had higher mortality rates than the other pathologies (p < 0.001). Survival rate is increasing to date in newborn pediatric surgery unit; it is independent from parenteral nutrition, maternal age, time to admission and gestational age however it is affected adversely by the age of patient, associating abnormality, low birth weight, presence of sepsis and requirement of respiratory support. Increase in survival could be related to various additional factors such as development of delicate respiratory support machines, broad spectrum antibiotics, hospital infection control teams, central venous catheters, use of TPN by central route, volume adjustable infusion pumps, monitoring devices, neonatal surgical techniques, prenatal diagnosis of pediatric surgical conditions and developments of environmental control methods in neonatal surgical units.

Abnormal early cleavage events predict early embryo demise: sperm oxidative stress and early abnormal cleavage.

PubMed

Burruel, Victoria; Klooster, Katie; Barker, Christopher M; Pera, Renee Reijo; Meyers, Stuart

2014-10-13

Human embryos resulting from abnormal early cleavage can result in aneuploidy and failure to develop normally to the blastocyst stage. The nature of paternal influence on early embryo development has not been directly demonstrated although many studies have suggested effects from spermatozoal chromatin packaging, DNA damage, centriolar and mitotic spindle integrity, and plasma membrane integrity. The goal of this study was to determine whether early developmental events were affected by oxidative damage to the fertilizing sperm. Survival analysis was used to compare patterns of blastocyst formation based on P2 duration. Kaplan-Meier survival curves demonstrate that relatively few embryos with short (<1 hr) P2 times reached blastocysts, and the two curves diverged beginning on day 4, with nearly all of the embryos with longer P2 times reaching blastocysts by day 6 (p < .01). We determined that duration of the 2nd to 3rd mitoses were sensitive periods in the presence of spermatozoal oxidative stress. Embryos that displayed either too long or too short cytokineses demonstrated an increased failure to reach blastocyst stage and therefore survive for further development. Although paternal-derived gene expression occurs later in development, this study suggests a specific role in early mitosis that is highly influenced by paternal factors.

Effects of the chitin synthesis inhibitor buprofezin on survival and development of immatures of Chrysoperla rufilabris (Neuroptera: Chrysopidae).

PubMed

Liu, T X; Chen, T Y

2000-04-01

Effects of buprofezin (Applaud), a chitin synthesis inhibitor, on survival and development of eggs, three instars, and pupae of Chrysoperla rufilabris (Burmeister) were determined in the laboratory. Buprofezin at three tested concentrations (100, 500, and 1,000 mg [AI]/liter) did not affect the viability and development of eggs when the eggs were treated, or third instars and pupae when those stages were treated. Although the degree of effects by buprofezin on larvae varied with instar, buprofezin at the higher concentrations (500 and 1,000 mg [AI]/liter) reduced survival rates 17-47% and prolonged the overall development from first instars to adult emergence by 2 or 3 d when first instars were treated, indicating that the first instar is the most vulnerable stage. When second instars were treated, the survival of C. rufilabris from second instars to pupae was not significantly affected. However, the developmental time from second instar to adult emergence was longer in the treatments with the highest concentration (1,000 mg [AI]/liter) than that with the lowest concentration (100 mg [AI]/liter). The compatibility of buprofezin with natural enemies in integrated pest management programs is discussed.

Pulmonary Metastasis After Resection of Cholangiocarcinoma: Incidence, Resectability, and Survival.

PubMed

Yamada, Mihoko; Ebata, Tomoki; Yokoyama, Yukihiro; Igami, Tsuyoshi; Sugawara, Gen; Mizuno, Takashi; Yamaguchi, Junpei; Nagino, Masato

2017-06-01

There are few reports on pulmonary metastasis from cholangiocarcinoma; therefore, its incidence, resectability, and survival are unclear. Patients who underwent surgical resection for cholangiocarcinoma, including intrahepatic, perihilar, and distal cholangiocarcinoma were retrospectively reviewed, and this study focused on patients with pulmonary metastasis. Between January 2003 and December 2014, 681 patients underwent surgical resection for cholangiocarcinoma. Of these, 407 patients experienced disease recurrence, including 46 (11.3%) who developed pulmonary metastasis. Of these 46 patients, 9 underwent resection for pulmonary metastasis; no resection was performed in the remaining 37 patients. R0 resection was achieved in all patients, and no complications related to pulmonary metastasectomy were observed. The median time to recurrence was significantly longer in the 9 patients who underwent surgery than in the 37 patients without surgery (2.5 vs 1.0 years, p < 0.010). Survival after surgery for primary cancer and survival after recurrence were significantly better in the former group than in the latter group (after primary cancer: 66.7 vs 0% at 5 years, p < 0.001; after recurrence: 40.0 vs 8.7% at 3 years, p = 0.003). Multivariate analysis identified the time to recurrence and resection for pulmonary metastasis as independent prognostic factors for survival after recurrence. Resection for pulmonary metastasis originating from cholangiocarcinoma can be safely performed and confers survival benefits for select patients, especially those with a longer time to recurrence after initial surgery.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hristov, Boris; Reddy, Sushanth; Lin, Steven H.

Purpose: Surgery followed by chemotherapy and radiation (CRT) offers patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma a chance for extended survival. In some patients, however, resection is difficult because of vascular involvement by the carcinoma, necessitating resection and grafting of the mesenterico-portal vessels. The purpose of this study was to compare outcomes between pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) with and without mesenterico-portal vein resection (VR) in patients receiving adjuvant CRT for pancreatic adenocarcinoma. Methods and Materials: Between 1993 and 2005, 160 patients underwent PD with 5-FU-based adjuvant CRT followed by maintenance chemotherapy at the Johns Hopkins Hospital; 20 (12.5%) of the 160 underwent VR. Clinical outcomes,more » including median survival, overall survival, and complication rates were assessed for both groups. Results: Patients who underwent VR had significantly longer operative times (p = 0.009), greater intraoperative blood loss (p = 0.01), and longer postoperative lengths of stay (p = 0.03). However, postoperative morbidity, median survival, and overall survival rates were similar between the two groups. Most patients (70%) from both groups were able to complete CRT, and a subgroup analysis demonstrated no appreciable differences in terms of complications. None of the VR patients who received adjuvant CRT developed veno-occlusive disease or graft failure/leakage. Conclusion: In a cohort of patients treated with adjuvant 5-FU-based CRT at the Johns Hopkins Hospital, having a VR at the time of PD resulted in similar complication rates and survival. These data support the feasibility and safety of adjuvant CRT in patients undergoing VR at the time of PD.« less

Beyond Survival: Educational Development and the Maturing of the POD Network

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ortquist-Ahrens, Leslie

2016-01-01

Scholarship about the growth of educational development has charted major shifts in developers' focuses and roles through time and, especially in recent years, has explored the professionalization of the field around the globe. This essay uses a lifecycle analogy to consider the development of one organization, the POD Network (The Professional…

Analysing child mortality in Nigeria with geoadditive discrete-time survival models.

PubMed

Adebayo, Samson B; Fahrmeir, Ludwig

2005-03-15

Child mortality reflects a country's level of socio-economic development and quality of life. In developing countries, mortality rates are not only influenced by socio-economic, demographic and health variables but they also vary considerably across regions and districts. In this paper, we analysed child mortality in Nigeria with flexible geoadditive discrete-time survival models. This class of models allows us to measure small-area district-specific spatial effects simultaneously with possibly non-linear or time-varying effects of other factors. Inference is fully Bayesian and uses computationally efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation techniques. The application is based on the 1999 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey. Our method assesses effects at a high level of temporal and spatial resolution not available with traditional parametric models, and the results provide some evidence on how to reduce child mortality by improving socio-economic and public health conditions. Copyright (c) 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Erythrocyte survival time in Greyhounds as assessed by use of in vivo biotinylation.

PubMed

Garon, Catherine L; Cohn, Leah A; Scott, Michael A

2010-09-01

To determine erythrocyte survival time in Greyhounds. 6 Greyhounds used as blood donors and 3 privately owned non-Greyhound dogs. In vivo biotinylation of erythrocytes was performed by infusion of biotin-N-hydroxysuccinimide into each dog via a jugular vein catheter. Blood samples were collected 12 hours later and then at weekly intervals and were used to determine the percentage of biotin-labeled erythrocytes at each time point. Erythrocytes were washed, incubated with avidin-fluorescein isothiocyanate, and washed again before the percentage of biotinylated erythrocytes was measured by use of flow cytometry. Survival curves for the percentage of biotinylated erythrocytes were generated, and erythrocyte survival time was defined as the x-intercept of a least squares best-fit line for the linear portion of each curve. The R2 for survival curves ranged from 0.93 to 0.99 during the first 10 weeks after infusion of erythrocytes. Erythrocyte survival time for the 3 non-Greyhound dogs was 94, 98, and 116 days, respectively, which was consistent with previously reported values. Erythrocyte survival time for the 6 Greyhounds ranged from 83 to 110 days (mean, 93 days; median, 88 days). As determined by use of in vivo biotinylation, erythrocyte survival times in Greyhounds were similar to those determined for non-Greyhound dogs and did not differ significantly from erythrocyte survival times reported previously for non-Greyhound dogs. Erythrocyte survival time was similar in Greyhounds and non-Greyhound dogs. Greyhounds can be used as erythrocyte donors without concerns about inherently shorter erythrocyte survival time.

Modelling the Ozone-Based Treatments for Inactivation of Microorganisms.

PubMed

Brodowska, Agnieszka Joanna; Nowak, Agnieszka; Kondratiuk-Janyska, Alina; Piątkowski, Marcin; Śmigielski, Krzysztof

2017-10-09

The paper presents the development of a model for ozone treatment in a dynamic bed of different microorganisms ( Bacillus subtilis , B. cereus , B. pumilus , Escherichia coli , Pseudomonas fluorescens , Aspergillus niger , Eupenicillium cinnamopurpureum ) on a heterogeneous matrix (juniper berries, cardamom seeds) initially treated with numerous ozone doses during various contact times was studied. Taking into account various microorganism susceptibility to ozone, it was of great importance to develop a sufficiently effective ozone dose to preserve food products using different strains based on the microbial model. For this purpose, we have chosen the Weibull model to describe the survival curves of different microorganisms. Based on the results of microorganism survival modelling after ozone treatment and considering the least susceptible strains to ozone, we selected the critical ones. Among tested strains, those from genus Bacillus were recognized as the most critical strains. In particular, B. subtilis and B. pumilus possessed the highest resistance to ozone treatment because the time needed to achieve the lowest level of its survival was the longest (up to 17.04 min and 16.89 min for B. pumilus reduction on juniper berry and cardamom seed matrix, respectively). Ozone treatment allow inactivate microorganisms to achieving lower survival rates by ozone dose (20.0 g O₃/m³ O₂, with a flow rate of 0.4 L/min) and contact time (up to 20 min). The results demonstrated that a linear correlation between parameters p and k in Weibull distribution, providing an opportunity to calculate a fitted equation of the process.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rafat, M; Bazalova, M; Palma, B

Purpose: To characterize the effect of very rapid dose delivery as compared to conventional therapeutic irradiation times on clonogenic cell survival. Methods: We used a Varian Trilogy linear accelerator to deliver doses up to 10 Gy using a 6 MV SRS photon beam. We irradiated four cancer cell lines in times ranging from 30 sec to 30 min. We also used a Varian TrueBeam linear accelerator to deliver 9 MeV electrons at 10 Gy in 10 s to 30 min to determine the effect of irradiation time on cell survival. We then evaluated the effect of using 60 and 120more » MeV electrons on cell survival using the Next Linear Collider Test Accelerator (NLCTA) beam line at the SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory. During irradiation, adherent cells were maintained at 37oC with 20%O2/5%CO2. Clonogenic assays were completed following irradiation to determine changes in cell survival due to dose delivery time and beam quality, and the survival data were fitted with the linear-quadratic model. Results: Cell lines varied in radiosensitivity, ranging from two to four logs of cell kill at 10 Gy for both conventional and very rapid irradiation. Delivering radiation in shorter times decreased survival in all cell lines. Log differences in cell kill ranged from 0.2 to 0.7 at 10 Gy for the short compared to the long irradiation time. Cell kill differences between short and long irradiations were more pronounced as doses increased for all cell lines. Conclusion: Our findings suggest that shortening delivery of therapeutic radiation doses to less than 1 minute may improve tumor cell kill. This study demonstrates the potential advantage of technologies under development to deliver stereotactic ablative radiation doses very rapidly. Bill Loo and Peter Maxim have received Honoraria from Varian and Research Support from Varian and RaySearch.« less

Prognostic Factors After Extraneural Metastasis of Medulloblastoma

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mazloom, Ali; Zangeneh, Azy H.; Paulino, Arnold C., E-mail: apaulino@tmhs.or

2010-09-01

Purpose: To review the existing literature regarding the characteristics, prognostic factors, treatment, and survival of patients with medulloblastoma, who develop extraneural metastasis (ENM). Methods and Materials: A PubMed search of English language articles from 1961 to 2007 was performed, yielding 47 articles reporting on 119 patients. Factors analyzed included age, time interval to development of ENM, ENM location, central nervous system (CNS) involvement, treatment, and outcome. Results: Sites of ENM included bone in 84% of patients, bone marrow in 27% of patients, lymph nodes in 15% of patients, lung in 6% of patients, and liver in 6% of patients. Medianmore » survival was 8 months after diagnosis of ENM. The 1-, 2-, and 5-year overall survival (OS) rates after diagnosis of ENM were 41.9%, 31.0%, and 26.0%, respectively. The 1-, 2-, and 5-year progression-free survival (PFS) rates after diagnosis of ENM were 34.5%, 23.2%, and 13.4%, respectively. For patients without CNS involvement at the time of ENM diagnosis, the 1-, 2-, and 5-year OS rates for those treated with and without radiotherapy (RT) were 82.4%, 64.8%, and 64.8% vs. 51.0%, 36.6%, and 30.5%, respectively (p = 0.03, log-rank test). RT did not significantly improve OS or PFS rates for those with CNS involvement. Concurrent CNS involvement, ENM in the lung or liver, a time interval of <18 months to development of ENM, and a patient age of <16 years at ENM diagnosis were found to be negative prognostic factors for both OS and PFS. Conclusions: Several prognostic factors were identified for patients with ENM from medulloblastoma. Patients without concurrent CNS involvement, who received RT after ENM diagnosis had an OS and PFS benefit compared to those who did not receive RT.« less

Biological variation in two Anopheles vestitipennis populations with different feeding preferences in southern Mexico.

PubMed

Ulloa, Armando; Rodríguez, Mario H; Arredondo-Jimenez, Juan I; Fernandez-Salas, Ildefonso

2005-12-01

The lengths of gonotrophic cycle and egg development and survival rate were studied in Anopheles vestitipennis collected in horse and human-baited traps in southern Mexico. The gonotrophic cycle duration was estimated using cross-correlation analysis, whereas the survival rate was assessed using a vertical method. Daily changes of parity rates gave significant correlation indices at 3 and 4 days in the zoophilic and anthropophilic populations, respectively. The minimum time required to develop mature eggs after blood feeding was 54 and 60 h, and the survival rate was 0.93 and 0.88 in zoophilic and anthropophilic female mosquito populations, respectively. These biological differences provide additional support for the existence of subpopulations with distinctive feeding preferences within An. vestitipennis in southern Mexico.

A look backward and forward in the regulatory and treatment history of multiple myeloma: Approval of novel-novel agents, new drug development, and longer patient survival.

PubMed

Kazandjian, Dickran; Landgren, Ola

2016-12-01

The past decade has seen significant advances in our understanding and treatment of multiple myeloma (MM) and its precursor diseases. These advances include gains in knowledge of the underlying pathobiology including molecular and cellular prognostic factors for disease progression. In parallel we have witnessed the availability of novel therapeutics. Together these advances have translated into improvements in long-term clinical benefit and survival in MM. Indeed, it has been shown that patients diagnosed in the last decade have experienced almost doubling of median survival time. We aim to review and give further insight into drug development and novel drug approvals that have revolutionized the treatment of MM. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Ensemble survival tree models to reveal pairwise interactions of variables with time-to-events outcomes in low-dimensional setting

PubMed Central

Dazard, Jean-Eudes; Ishwaran, Hemant; Mehlotra, Rajeev; Weinberg, Aaron; Zimmerman, Peter

2018-01-01

Unraveling interactions among variables such as genetic, clinical, demographic and environmental factors is essential to understand the development of common and complex diseases. To increase the power to detect such variables interactions associated with clinical time-to-events outcomes, we borrowed established concepts from random survival forest (RSF) models. We introduce a novel RSF-based pairwise interaction estimator and derive a randomization method with bootstrap confidence intervals for inferring interaction significance. Using various linear and nonlinear time-to-events survival models in simulation studies, we first show the efficiency of our approach: true pairwise interaction-effects between variables are uncovered, while they may not be accompanied with their corresponding main-effects, and may not be detected by standard semi-parametric regression modeling and test statistics used in survival analysis. Moreover, using a RSF-based cross-validation scheme for generating prediction estimators, we show that informative predictors may be inferred. We applied our approach to an HIV cohort study recording key host gene polymorphisms and their association with HIV change of tropism or AIDS progression. Altogether, this shows how linear or nonlinear pairwise statistical interactions of variables may be efficiently detected with a predictive value in observational studies with time-to-event outcomes. PMID:29453930

Ensemble survival tree models to reveal pairwise interactions of variables with time-to-events outcomes in low-dimensional setting.

PubMed

Dazard, Jean-Eudes; Ishwaran, Hemant; Mehlotra, Rajeev; Weinberg, Aaron; Zimmerman, Peter

2018-02-17

Unraveling interactions among variables such as genetic, clinical, demographic and environmental factors is essential to understand the development of common and complex diseases. To increase the power to detect such variables interactions associated with clinical time-to-events outcomes, we borrowed established concepts from random survival forest (RSF) models. We introduce a novel RSF-based pairwise interaction estimator and derive a randomization method with bootstrap confidence intervals for inferring interaction significance. Using various linear and nonlinear time-to-events survival models in simulation studies, we first show the efficiency of our approach: true pairwise interaction-effects between variables are uncovered, while they may not be accompanied with their corresponding main-effects, and may not be detected by standard semi-parametric regression modeling and test statistics used in survival analysis. Moreover, using a RSF-based cross-validation scheme for generating prediction estimators, we show that informative predictors may be inferred. We applied our approach to an HIV cohort study recording key host gene polymorphisms and their association with HIV change of tropism or AIDS progression. Altogether, this shows how linear or nonlinear pairwise statistical interactions of variables may be efficiently detected with a predictive value in observational studies with time-to-event outcomes.

Comparing of Cox model and parametric models in analysis of effective factors on event time of neuropathy in patients with type 2 diabetes.

PubMed

Kargarian-Marvasti, Sadegh; Rimaz, Shahnaz; Abolghasemi, Jamileh; Heydari, Iraj

2017-01-01

Cox proportional hazard model is the most common method for analyzing the effects of several variables on survival time. However, under certain circumstances, parametric models give more precise estimates to analyze survival data than Cox. The purpose of this study was to investigate the comparative performance of Cox and parametric models in a survival analysis of factors affecting the event time of neuropathy in patients with type 2 diabetes. This study included 371 patients with type 2 diabetes without neuropathy who were registered at Fereydunshahr diabetes clinic. Subjects were followed up for the development of neuropathy between 2006 to March 2016. To investigate the factors influencing the event time of neuropathy, significant variables in univariate model ( P < 0.20) were entered into the multivariate Cox and parametric models ( P < 0.05). In addition, Akaike information criterion (AIC) and area under ROC curves were used to evaluate the relative goodness of fitted model and the efficiency of each procedure, respectively. Statistical computing was performed using R software version 3.2.3 (UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS). Using Kaplan-Meier, survival time of neuropathy was computed 76.6 ± 5 months after initial diagnosis of diabetes. After multivariate analysis of Cox and parametric models, ethnicity, high-density lipoprotein and family history of diabetes were identified as predictors of event time of neuropathy ( P < 0.05). According to AIC, "log-normal" model with the lowest Akaike's was the best-fitted model among Cox and parametric models. According to the results of comparison of survival receiver operating characteristics curves, log-normal model was considered as the most efficient and fitted model.

Predicting 6- and 12-Month Risk of Mortality in Patients With Platinum-Resistant Advanced-Stage Ovarian Cancer: Prognostic Model to Guide Palliative Care Referrals.

PubMed

Foote, Jonathan; Lopez-Acevedo, Micael; Samsa, Gregory; Lee, Paula S; Kamal, Arif H; Alvarez Secord, Angeles; Havrilesky, Laura J

2018-02-01

Predictive models are increasingly being used in clinical practice. The aim of the study was to develop a predictive model to identify patients with platinum-resistant ovarian cancer with a prognosis of less than 6 to 12 months who may benefit from immediate referral to hospice care. A retrospective chart review identified patients with platinum-resistant epithelial ovarian cancer who were treated at our institution between 2000 and 2011. A predictive model for survival was constructed based on the time from development of platinum resistance to death. Multivariate logistic regression modeling was used to identify significant survival predictors and to develop a predictive model. The following variables were included: time from diagnosis to platinum resistance, initial stage, debulking status, number of relapses, comorbidity score, albumin, hemoglobin, CA-125 levels, liver/lung metastasis, and the presence of a significant clinical event (SCE). An SCE was defined as a malignant bowel obstruction, pleural effusion, or ascites occurring on or before the diagnosis of platinum resistance. One hundred sixty-four patients met inclusion criteria. In the regression analysis, only an SCE and the presence of liver or lung metastasis were associated with poorer short-term survival (P < 0.001). Nine percent of patients with an SCE or liver or lung metastasis survived 6 months or greater and 0% survived 12 months or greater, compared with 85% and 67% of patients without an SCE or liver or lung metastasis, respectively. Patients with platinum-resistant ovarian cancer who have experienced an SCE or liver or lung metastasis have a high risk of death within 6 months and should be considered for immediate referral to hospice care.

Interactions of an insecticide, herbicide, and natural stressors in amphibian community mesocosms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boone, M.D.; James, S.M.

2003-01-01

Amphibians developing in wetlands embedded within or near agricultural lands may frequently encounter chemical mixtures. The objectives of our study were to determine the effects that post-application concentrations of an insecticide (carbaryl) and an herbicide (atrazine) have on body mass, development, and survival of two anuran species (southern leopard frog, Rana sphenocephala; American toad, Bufo americanus) and two caudate species (spotted salamander, Ambystoma maculatum; small-mouthed salamander, A. texanum) reared in outdoor cattle tank mesocosms. In one experiment, we manipulated tadpole density (low or high), carbaryl exposure (0, 3.5, 7.0 mg/L), and atrazine exposure (0 or 200 μg/L) to test for effects on development, mass, and survival of larvae. In a second experiment, we manipulated pond hydroperiod (constant or drying), carbaryl exposure (0 or 5 mg/L), and atrazine exposure (0 or 200 μg/L) to test for effects on mass, time, and survival to metamorphosis. Salamanders were virtually eliminated in carbaryl treatments, indicating that at realistic levels, this insecticide could cause population declines for salamanders in contaminated habitats. Carbaryl also had negative effects on toad survival. Exposure to atrazine had negative effects on body size, development, and time to metamorphosis in anuran species, which were associated with reduced chlorophyll levels. Both chemicals interacted significantly with density or hydroperiod, indicating that the environmental conditions could influence the impact of a contaminant. A significant atrazine-by-carbaryl interaction resulted in smaller and less developed spotted salamander larvae than in control ponds. Atrazine exposure, however, appeared to moderate negative effects of carbaryl for spotted salamanders. Our research suggests that important changes in the community's food web result from chemical exposure, which influence the susceptibility of amphibian species to contaminants.

Thermal control unit for long-time survival of scientific instruments on lunar surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogawa, Kazunori; Iijima, Yuichi; Tanaka, Satoshi

A thermal control unit (lunar survival module) is being developed for scientific instruments placed on the lunar surface. This unit is designed to be used on the future Japanese lunar landing mission SELENE-2. The lunar surface is a severe environment for scientific instruments. The absence of convective cooling by an atmosphere makes the ground surface temperature variable in the wide range of -200 to 100 degC, an environment in which space electronics can hardly survive. The surface elements must have a thermal control structure to maintain the inner temperature within the operable ranges of the instruments for long-time measurements, such as 1 month or longer beyond the lunar nights. The objectives of this study are to develop a thermal control unit for the SELENE-2 mission. So far, we conducted the concept design of the lunar survival module, and estimated its potential by a thermal mathematical model on the assumption of using a lunar seismometer designed for SELENE-2. The basic structure of the thermal module is rather simple in that a heat insulating shell covers the scientific instruments. The concept is that the conical insulator retains heat in the regolith soil in the daylight, and it can keep the device warm in the night. Results of the model calculations indicated the high potential of long-time survival. A bread board model (BBM) was manufactured, and its thermal-vacuum tests were conducted in order to estimate the validity of some thermal parameters assumed in the computed thermal model. The thermal condition of the lunar surface was simulated by glass beads paved in a vacuum chamber, and a temperature-controlled container. Temperature variations of the BBM in thermal cycling tests were compared to a thermal mathematical model, and the thermal parameters were finally assessed. Feeding the test results back into the thermal model for the lunar surface, some thermal parameters were updated but there was no critical effect on the survivability. The experimental results indicated a sufficient survivability potential of the concept of our thermal control system.

Temperature-Dependent Development and Survival of Brazilian Populations of the Mediterranean Fruit Fly, Ceratitis capitata, from Tropical, Subtropical and Temperate Regions

PubMed Central

Ricalde, Marcelo P.; Nava, Dori E.; Loeck, Alci E.; Donatti, Michele G.

2012-01-01

The Mediterranean fruit fly Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann) (Diptera: Tephritidae) is one of the principal exotic pests affecting Brazilian production in the northeastern and southeastern regions of Brazil. In the south, it is has potential as a serious threat to temperate-climate fruit farms, since it is already found in urban and suburban communities in this region. We studied the biological characteristics of C. capitata populations from Pelotas-RS (temperate climate), Petrolina-PE (tropical), and Campinas-SP (subtropical). Ceratitis capitata biology was studied under controlled temperature (15, 20, 25, 30, and 35 ± 1 °C), 70 ± 10% RH, and 14:10 L:D photoperiod. The duration and survival rate of the egg, larval, and pupal stages were evaluated and the thermal requirements of these three populations were determined. The duration and survival of these developmental stages varied with temperature, with similar values for the three populations, except for some variation in the egg phase. Egg to adult developmental time for all three populations was inversely proportional to temperature; from 15 to 30 °C developmental time varied from 71.2 to 17.1, 70.2 to 17.1, and 68.5 to 16.9 days, respectively. Survival during development was affected at 15 to 30 °C, and differed significantly from survival at 20 to 25 °C. At 35 °C, immature stages did not develop. The basal temperature and degree-day requirement were similar for all immature stages except for the egg stage. The basal temperatures and thermal constants were 9.30 and 350, 8.47 and 341, and 9.60 °C and 328 degree-days for the Pelotas, Petrolina, and Campinas populations, respectively. Results suggested that survival and thermal requirements are similar for these tropical, subtropical, and temperate populations of C. capitata, and demonstrate the species' capacity to adapt to different climate conditions. PMID:22963468

Biologic and social determinants of sequelae and long-term survival of pediatric HIV in Romania.

PubMed

Kozinetz, Claudia A; Matusa, Rodica; Hacker, Carl S

2006-08-01

The aim of the study is to investigate the effect of social context and clinical factors on survival in a cohort of 333 children to identify issues useful in the treatment and care of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected youth in developing countries. A prospective cohort study design was used, and data were gathered at baseline and 1-year follow-up. The study cohort consisted of children given a diagnosis of HIV between 1995 and 1999 and receiving medical care in Constanta, Romania. Data were examined by means of multivariate Cox regression analysis models. The majority of the cohort were in the moderate (41%) or severe (40%) stages of HIV at baseline. Multivariate analysis indicated that social-context factors were the most significant determinants of HIV survival. The hazard for death for those with mothers or fathers with a higher level of education was approximately one quarter (relative hazard, 0.3-0.4; confidence interval, 0.1-1.0) that for a parent with a lower level of education. Subjects with employed mothers were four times more likely to survive than subjects with unemployed mothers. Results suggest that recognition of social-context risk factors for HIV disease progression and survival is important in developing countries, as it is in developed countries.

Test method development to evaluate hot, humid air decontamination of materials contaminated with Bacillus anthracis ∆Sterne and B. thuringiensis Al Hakam spores.

PubMed

Buhr, T L; Young, A A; Minter, Z A; Wells, C M; McPherson, D C; Hooban, C L; Johnson, C A; Prokop, E J; Crigler, J R

2012-11-01

To develop test methods and evaluate the survival of Bacillus anthracis ∆Sterne and Bacillus thuringiensis Al Hakam spores after exposure to hot, humid air. Spores (>7 logs) of both strains were dried on six different test materials. Response surface methodology was employed to identify the limits of spore survival at optimal test combinations of temperature (60, 68, 77°C), relative humidity (60, 75, 90%) and time (1, 4, 7 days). No spores survived the harshest test run (77°C, 90% r.h., 7 days), while > 6·5 logs of spores survived the mildest test run (60°C, 60% r.h., 1 day). Spores of both strains inoculated on nylon webbing and polypropylene had greater survival rates at 68°C, 75% r.h., 4 days than spores on other materials. Electron microscopy showed no obvious physical damage to spores using hot, humid air, which contrasted with pH-adjusted bleach decontamination. Test methods were developed to show that hot, humid air effectively inactivates B. anthracis ∆Sterne and B. thuringiensis Al Hakam spores with similar kinetics. Hot, humid air is a potential alternative to conventional chemical decontamination. © 2012 The Authors Journal of Applied Microbiology © 2012 The Society for Applied Microbiology.

Association of cardiac implantable electronic devices with survival in bifascicular block and prolonged PR interval on electrocardiogram.

PubMed

Moulki, Naeem; Kealhofer, Jessica V; Benditt, David G; Gravely, Amy; Vakil, Kairav; Garcia, Santiago; Adabag, Selcuk

2018-06-16

Bifascicular block and prolonged PR interval on the electrocardiogram (ECG) have been associated with complete heart block and sudden cardiac death. We sought to determine if cardiac implantable electronic devices (CIED) improve survival in these patients. We assessed survival in relation to CIED status among 636 consecutive patients with bifascicular block and prolonged PR interval on the ECG. In survival analyses, CIED was considered as a time-varying covariate. Average age was 76 ± 9 years, and 99% of the patients were men. A total of 167 (26%) underwent CIED (127 pacemaker only) implantation at baseline (n = 23) or during follow-up (n = 144). During 5.4 ± 3.8 years of follow-up, 83 (13%) patients developed complete or high-degree atrioventricular block and 375 (59%) died. Patients with a CIED had a longer survival compared to those without a CIED in the traditional, static analysis (log-rank p < 0.0001) but not when CIED was considered as a time-varying covariate (log-rank p = 0.76). In the multivariable model, patients with a CIED had a 34% lower risk of death (hazard ratio 0.66, 95% confidence interval 0.52-0.83; p = 0.001) than those without CIED in the traditional analysis but not in the time-varying covariate analysis (hazard ratio 1.05, 95% confidence interval 0.79-1.38; p = 0.76). Results did not change in the subgroup with a pacemaker only. Bifascicular block and prolonged PR interval on ECG are associated with a high incidence of complete atrioventricular block and mortality. However, CIED implantation does not have a significant influence on survival when time-varying nature of CIED implantation is considered.

Application of Survival Analysis and Multistate Modeling to Understand Animal Behavior: Examples from Guide Dogs

PubMed Central

Asher, Lucy; Harvey, Naomi D.; Green, Martin; England, Gary C. W.

2017-01-01

Epidemiology is the study of patterns of health-related states or events in populations. Statistical models developed for epidemiology could be usefully applied to behavioral states or events. The aim of this study is to present the application of epidemiological statistics to understand animal behavior where discrete outcomes are of interest, using data from guide dogs to illustrate. Specifically, survival analysis and multistate modeling are applied to data on guide dogs comparing dogs that completed training and qualified as a guide dog, to those that were withdrawn from the training program. Survival analysis allows the time to (or between) a binary event(s) and the probability of the event occurring at or beyond a specified time point. Survival analysis, using a Cox proportional hazards model, was used to examine the time taken to withdraw a dog from training. Sex, breed, and other factors affected time to withdrawal. Bitches were withdrawn faster than dogs, Labradors were withdrawn faster, and Labrador × Golden Retrievers slower, than Golden Retriever × Labradors; and dogs not bred by Guide Dogs were withdrawn faster than those bred by Guide Dogs. Multistate modeling (MSM) can be used as an extension of survival analysis to incorporate more than two discrete events or states. Multistate models were used to investigate transitions between states of training to qualification as a guide dog or behavioral withdrawal, and from qualification as a guide dog to behavioral withdrawal. Sex, breed (with purebred Labradors and Golden retrievers differing from F1 crosses), and bred by Guide Dogs or not, effected movements between states. We postulate that survival analysis and MSM could be applied to a wide range of behavioral data and key examples are provided. PMID:28804710

Impact of travel time and rurality on presentation and outcomes of symptomatic colorectal cancer: a cross-sectional cohort study in primary care.

PubMed

Murage, Peninah; Murchie, Peter; Bachmann, Max; Crawford, Michael; Jones, Andy

2017-07-01

Several studies have reported a survival disadvantage for rural dwellers who develop colorectal cancer, but the underlying mechanisms remain obscure. Delayed presentation to GPs may be a contributory factor, but evidence is lacking. To examine the association between rurality and travel time on diagnosis and survival of colorectal cancer in a cohort from northeast Scotland. The authors used a database linking GP records to routine data for patients diagnosed between 1997 and 1998, and followed up to 2011. Primary outcomes were alarm symptoms, emergency admissions, stage, and survival. Travel time in minutes from patients to GP was estimated. Logistic and Cox regression were used to model outcomes. Interaction terms were used to determine if travelling time impacted differently on urban versus rural patients. Rural patients and patients travelling farther to the GP had better 3-year survival. When the travel outcome associations were explored using interaction terms, the associations differed between rural and urban areas. Longer travel in urban areas significantly reduced the odds of emergency admissions (odds ratio [OR] 0.62, P <0.05), and increased survival (hazard ratio 0.75, P <0.05). Longer travel also increased the odds of presenting with alarm symptoms in urban areas; this was nearly significant (OR 1.34, P = 0.06). Presence of alarm symptoms reduced the likelihood of emergency admissions (OR 0.36, P <0.01). Living in a rural area, and travelling farther to a GP in urban areas, may reduce the likelihood of emergency admissions and poor survival. This may be related to how patients present with alarm symptoms. © British Journal of General Practice 2017.

The size of the primary tumor and age at initial diagnosis are independent predictors of the metastatic behavior and survival of patients with SDHB-related pheochromocytoma and paraganglioma: a retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Schovanek, Jan; Martucci, Victoria; Wesley, Robert; Fojo, Tito; Del Rivero, Jaydira; Huynh, Thanh; Adams, Karen; Kebebew, Electron; Frysak, Zdenek; Stratakis, Constantine A; Pacak, Karel

2014-07-21

Succinate dehydrogenase subunit B (SDHB) mutations are associated with aggressive pheochromocytoma (PHEO)/paraganglioma (PGL) behavior, often resulting in metastatic disease and fatal outcomes. These tumors are often larger, extra-adrenal, and contain lower catecholamine concentrations than other hereditary PHEOs/PGLs. This study evaluated the size and age at diagnosis of primary SDHB-related PHEOs/PGLs as independent predictors of their metastatic behavior and outcome (survival). One hundred six patients with SDHB mutation-related PHEO/PGL were included in this retrospective study. The recorded largest diameters, locations, and patient ages at initial diagnosis of SDHB-related primary tumors were analyzed in the context of time to metastasis and patient survival. First, the development of metastatic disease in patients with primary tumors ≥4.5 cm was significantly earlier than in patients with smaller tumors (P = 0.003). Second, patients with primary tumors larger than 5.5 cm also had worse overall survival than patients with smaller tumors (P = 0.008). Third, age at initial diagnosis was found to be an independent predictor of patient survival (PHEOs: P = 0.041; PGLs: P < 0.001). Fourth, we did not observe a significant difference in survival based on the specific SDHB mutations or patient sex. Receiver operating characteristic curves established 4.5 cm as the best value to dichotomize the primary SDHB-related PHEO/PGL in order to evaluate the development of metastatic disease and 5.5 cm as the best value for survival prediction. Subsequently, the size of the primary tumor was found as an age-independent predictor of patient survival and metastases development in PGL. In both PHEO and PGL, age at diagnosis was found to be a size-independent predictor of patient survival. No significant difference was found in metastases development or patient survival between males and females or among specific SDHB mutations. This data further extends and supports previous recommendations that carriers with SDHB mutations must undergo early and regular evaluations to detect PHEO/PGL in order to achieve the best clinical outcome.

Thrombin-antithrombin levels are associated with survival in patients resuscitated from cardiac arrest.

PubMed

Wertz, Jonathon; Doshi, Ankur A; Guyette, Francis X; Callaway, Clifton W; Rittenberger, Jon C

2013-10-01

Following successful resuscitation from cardiac arrest, a prothrombotic state may contribute to end-organ dysfunction. We examined whether the level of serum thrombin-antithrombin (TAT) in patients hospitalized after cardiac arrest was associated with survival or the development of multiple organ failure (MOF). A prospective cohort study of subjects with in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) or out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) treated between 1/1/2007 and 5/30/2010 at a single tertiary care referral center. TAT levels were measured at hospital arrival and 24h after cardiac arrest. Logistic regression was used to determine associations between TAT levels and survival and development of MOF. Data were available for 86 subjects. TAT levels decreased over time. Initial TAT levels (OR 0.03; 95%CI 0.001, 0.62) and category of illness severity (OR 0.39; 95% CI 0.21, 0.73) were associated with survival. Male gender (OR 3.86; 95% CI 1.17, 12.75) and category of illness severity (OR 1.86; 95% CI 1.09, 3.20), but not TAT levels were associated with development of MOF. Neither the 24-h TAT level, nor the change in TAT from initial to 24h was associated with survival when adjusted for category of illness severity. Initial serum TAT levels and category of illness severity are associated with survival. TAT levels are not associated with development of MOF. Initial TAT levels may be a useful prognostic adjunct in the post arrest population. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Apalutamide Treatment and Metastasis-free Survival in Prostate Cancer.

PubMed

Smith, Matthew R; Saad, Fred; Chowdhury, Simon; Oudard, Stéphane; Hadaschik, Boris A; Graff, Julie N; Olmos, David; Mainwaring, Paul N; Lee, Ji Youl; Uemura, Hiroji; Lopez-Gitlitz, Angela; Trudel, Géralyn C; Espina, Byron M; Shu, Youyi; Park, Youn C; Rackoff, Wayne R; Yu, Margaret K; Small, Eric J

2018-04-12

Apalutamide, a competitive inhibitor of the androgen receptor, is under development for the treatment of prostate cancer. We evaluated the efficacy of apalutamide in men with nonmetastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer who were at high risk for the development of metastasis. We conducted a double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial involving men with nonmetastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer and a prostate-specific antigen doubling time of 10 months or less. Patients were randomly assigned, in a 2:1 ratio, to receive apalutamide (240 mg per day) or placebo. All the patients continued to receive androgen-deprivation therapy. The primary end point was metastasis-free survival, which was defined as the time from randomization to the first detection of distant metastasis on imaging or death. A total of 1207 men underwent randomization (806 to the apalutamide group and 401 to the placebo group). In the planned primary analysis, which was performed after 378 events had occurred, median metastasis-free survival was 40.5 months in the apalutamide group as compared with 16.2 months in the placebo group (hazard ratio for metastasis or death, 0.28; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.23 to 0.35; P<0.001). Time to symptomatic progression was significantly longer with apalutamide than with placebo (hazard ratio, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.32 to 0.63; P<0.001). The rate of adverse events leading to discontinuation of the trial regimen was 10.6% in the apalutamide group and 7.0% in the placebo group. The following adverse events occurred at a higher rate with apalutamide than with placebo: rash (23.8% vs. 5.5%), hypothyroidism (8.1% vs. 2.0%), and fracture (11.7% vs. 6.5%). Among men with nonmetastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer, metastasis-free survival and time to symptomatic progression were significantly longer with apalutamide than with placebo. (Funded by Janssen Research and Development; SPARTAN ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01946204 .).

High-grade extremity soft tissue sarcomas: factors predictive of local recurrence and its effect on morbidity and mortality.

PubMed

Eilber, Fritz C; Rosen, Gerald; Nelson, Scott D; Selch, Michael; Dorey, Frederick; Eckardt, Jeffery; Eilber, Frederick R

2003-02-01

To identify patient characteristics associated with the development of local recurrence and the effect of local recurrence on subsequent morbidity and mortality in patients with intermediate- to high-grade extremity soft tissue sarcomas. Numerous studies on extremity soft tissue sarcomas have consistently shown that presentation with locally recurrent disease is associated with the development of subsequent local recurrences and that large tumor size and high histologic grade are significant factors associated with decreased survival. However, the effect of local recurrence on patient survival remains unclear. From 1975 to 1997, 753 patients with intermediate- to high-grade extremity soft tissue sarcomas were treated at UCLA. Treatment outcomes and patient characteristics were analyzed to identify factors associated with both local recurrence and survival. Patients with locally recurrent disease were at a significantly increased risk of developing a subsequent local recurrence. Local recurrence was a morbid event requiring amputation in 38% of the cases. The development of a local recurrence was the most significant factor associated with decreased survival. Once a patient developed a local recurrence, he or she was about three times more likely to die of disease compared to similar patients who had not developed a local recurrence. Local recurrence in patients with intermediate- to high-grade extremity soft tissue sarcomas is associated with the development of subsequent local recurrences, a morbid event decreasing functional outcomes and the most significant factor associated with decreased survival. Although 85% to 90% of patients with high-grade extremity soft tissue sarcomas are treatable with a limb salvage approach, patients who develop a local recurrence need aggressive treatment and should be considered for trials of adjuvant systemic therapy.

Effect of temperature during embryonic development and first feeding of Trichogaster leeri larvae.

PubMed

Pereira, Samuel Louzada; de Andrade, Dalcio Ricardo; Radael, Marcella Costa; Fosse Filho, João Carlos; de Azevedo, Rafael Vieira; Mattos, Douglas da Cruz; Vidal Junior, Manuel Vazquez

2016-10-01

Temperature is an environmental factor that influences the development of fish, and when changed abruptly can lead to high mortality. Some species of fish are influenced by this factor, exhibiting a longer time for embryonic development and time to first feeding. This study aims to evaluate the effect of water temperature on embryonic and larval development up to first feeding, to describe the time in hours post fertilization (hpf) of the emergence of different structures and to determine the best hatching rate and survival of animals under different treatments. Five different egg incubation temperatures were used (24, 26, 28, 30 or 32°C, respectively). The eggs were observed at regular intervals of 30 min up to 24 h, every 2 h until 48 h and every 4 h until the display of first feeding in all treatments. Embryonic development was longer for eggs incubated at 24°C and the best results for hatching rate and survival of spawning efficiency were at 28°C. We recommend that incubation of Trichogaster leeri eggs is carried out at 28°C up to the first feeding of larvae.

Clinical outcome in 94 cases of dermal haemangiosarcoma in dogs treated with surgical excision: 1993-2007*.

PubMed

Szivek, A; Burns, R E; Gericota, B; Affolter, V K; Kent, M S; Rodriguez, C O; Skorupski, K A

2012-03-01

Canine dermal haemangiosarcoma (HSA) is believed to have a better prognosis compared to HSA in other organs, but outcome has only been reported in a small number of dogs. The purpose of this study was to assess outcome and prognostic factors in a larger cohort of dogs with dermal HSA. Clinical data was collected retrospectively for 94 dogs and histopathology was reviewed in 53 dogs. Median overall survival time was 987 days. Dogs of predisposed breed with ventral location and histologic solar changes had longer survivals. Loco-regional recurrence occurred in 72/94 (77%) dogs. Predisposed breeds with ventral location and multiple masses were more likely to develop recurrence. Non-predisposed breeds with invasive tumours were more likely to develop metastasis. Results suggest that dogs with solar-induced dermal HSA may have high recurrence rates, but prolonged survivals. Dogs with non-solar tumours may be at increased risk for metastasis and shorter survival. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

QUANTIFICATION OF HEAT FLUX FROM A REACTING THERMITE SPRAY

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eric Nixon; Michelle Pantoya

2009-07-01

Characterizing the combustion behaviors of energetic materials requires diagnostic tools that are often not readily or commercially available. For example, a jet of thermite spray provides a high temperature and pressure reaction that can also be highly corrosive and promote undesirable conditions for the survivability of any sensor. Developing a diagnostic to quantify heat flux from a thermite spray is the objective of this study. Quick response sensors such as thin film heat flux sensors can not survive the harsh conditions of the spray, but more rugged sensors lack the response time for the resolution desired. A sensor that willmore » allow for adequate response time while surviving the entire test duration was constructed. The sensor outputs interior temperatures of the probes at known locations and utilizes an inverse heat conduction code to calculate heat flux values. The details of this device are discussed and illustrated. Temperature and heat flux measurements of various thermite spray conditions are reported. Results indicate that this newly developed energetic material heat flux sensor provides quantitative data with good repeatability.« less

Long-Term Outcomes in Patients With Isolated Supraclavicular Nodal Recurrence After Mastectomy and Doxorubicin-Based Chemotherapy for Breast Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reddy, Jay P.; Levy, Larry; Oh, Julia L.

Purpose: To examine the outcome of patients who developed an isolated locoregional recurrence (LRR) involving the supraclavicular fossa (SCV) after initial treatment with modified radical mastectomy and chemotherapy. Methods and Materials: Records from 140 breast cancer patients treated on five prospective trials with mastectomy and doxorubicin-based chemotherapy, with or without radiation, who developed a LRR were reviewed. Kaplan-Meier survival times were calculated using date of LRR as time zero. Results: The median follow-up after LRR was 2.9 years (N = 140; interquartile range, 1.3-6.6 years). In all, 47 of 140 patients (34%) had an SCV component to their LRR. Thesemore » patients had lower 3-y distant metastasis-free survival (40% vs. 54%, p = 0.003) and overall survival (49% vs. 69%, p = 0.04) than patients without an SCV component. Multivariate analysis revealed that LRR involving an SCV component (hazard ratio, 1.96, p = 0.004) and patients with lymphovascular space invasion in their primary tumors (hazard ratio, 1.65, p = 0.029) were independently associated with a poor distant metastasis-free survival. However, among 23 patients with isolated SCV recurrence, Overall survival was not statistically significantly different between isolated chest wall recurrence and isolated SCV recurrence. Patients with isolated SCV recurrence displayed a median follow-up of 3.3 years (IR, 1.2-5.2). Only 6 LRR of 23 patients were treated with aggressive local therapy, including surgery, chemotherapy, and radiation (alone or in combination). Conclusions: Although breast cancer recurrence with SCV involvement carries a high risk of distant metastasis and death, among women with recurrence limited to the SCV alone, overall survival after isolated SCV recurrence can be long (25% >5 years).« less

Mathematical modeling of damage function when attacking file server

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kozlov, V. G.; Skrypnikov, A. V.; Chernyshova, E. V.; Mogutnov, R. V.; Levushkin, D. M.

2018-05-01

The development of information technologies in Russia and the prospects for their further improvement allow us to identify a stable trend of expansion of both functions of the corresponding automated information systems (AIS) and the spheres of their application. At the same time, many threats to information processes in the AIS are expanding, which in turn stimulates the development of adequate means and systems for ensuring the information security of the AS and methods for assessing their protection. It is necessary to assess the ability of the system to continue its normal functioning under the conditions of permanent destructive influences and to resist them, to adapt the functioning algorithms to new conditions and to organize functional restoration or to ensure functioning with a gradual process of degradation, possibly without losing the most significant “critical” information functions. The analysis and evaluation of reliability are needed to be transformed into the analysis and evaluation of survivability. Survivability can be considered as the ability of the information system to store and restore the performance of basic functions in a given volume and for a given time in the case of a change in the system structure and / or algorithms and the conditions of its functioning due to adverse effects. One of the system survivability indicators is the reserve of survivability (S-survivability) that is the critical number of defects reduced by a unit. The authors will consider defect as a unit of measurement of damage to the information system by adverse impact. U is denoted as the critical number of defects, then S = 1-U is the index of S-survivability. The article gives the definition of an analytical formula for the function of damage and risk.

Primary Localization and Tumor Thickness as Prognostic Factors of Survival in Patients with Mucosal Melanoma

PubMed Central

Mehra, Tarun; Grözinger, Gerd; Mann, Steven; Guenova, Emmanuella; Moos, Rudolf; Röcken, Martin; Claussen, Claus Detlef; Dummer, Reinhard; Clasen, Stephan

2014-01-01

Background Data on survival with mucosal melanoma and on prognostic factors of are scarce. It is still unclear if the disease course allows for mucosal melanoma to be treated as primary cutaneous melanoma or if differences in overall survival patterns require adapted therapeutic approaches. Furthermore, this investigation is the first to present 10-year survival rates for mucosal melanomas of different anatomical localizations. Methodology 116 cases from Sep 10 1984 until Feb 15 2011 retrieved from the Comprehensive Cancer Center and of the Central Register of the German Dermatologic Society databases in Tübingen were included in our analysis. We recorded anatomical location and tumor thickness, and estimated overall survival at 2, 5 and 10 years and the mean overall survival time. Survival times were analyzed with the Kaplan-Meier method. The log-rank test was used to compare survival times by localizations and by T-stages. Principal Findings We found a median overall survival time of 80.9 months, with an overall 2-year survival of 71.7%, 5-year survival of 55.8% and 10-year survival of 38.3%. The 10-year survival rates for patients with T1, T2, T3 or T4 stage tumors were 100.0%, 77.9%, 66.3% and 10.6% respectively. 10-year survival of patients with melanomas of the vulva was 64.5% in comparison to 22.3% of patients with non-vulva mucosal melanomas. Conclusion Survival times differed significantly between patients with melanomas of the vulva compared to the rest (p = 0.0006). It also depends on T-stage at the time of diagnosis (p<0.0001). PMID:25383553

Primary localization and tumor thickness as prognostic factors of survival in patients with mucosal melanoma.

PubMed

Mehra, Tarun; Grözinger, Gerd; Mann, Steven; Guenova, Emmanuella; Moos, Rudolf; Röcken, Martin; Claussen, Claus Detlef; Dummer, Reinhard; Clasen, Stephan; Naumann, Aline; Garbe, Claus

2014-01-01

Data on survival with mucosal melanoma and on prognostic factors of are scarce. It is still unclear if the disease course allows for mucosal melanoma to be treated as primary cutaneous melanoma or if differences in overall survival patterns require adapted therapeutic approaches. Furthermore, this investigation is the first to present 10-year survival rates for mucosal melanomas of different anatomical localizations. 116 cases from Sep 10 1984 until Feb 15 2011 retrieved from the Comprehensive Cancer Center and of the Central Register of the German Dermatologic Society databases in Tübingen were included in our analysis. We recorded anatomical location and tumor thickness, and estimated overall survival at 2, 5 and 10 years and the mean overall survival time. Survival times were analyzed with the Kaplan-Meier method. The log-rank test was used to compare survival times by localizations and by T-stages. We found a median overall survival time of 80.9 months, with an overall 2-year survival of 71.7%, 5-year survival of 55.8% and 10-year survival of 38.3%. The 10-year survival rates for patients with T1, T2, T3 or T4 stage tumors were 100.0%, 77.9%, 66.3% and 10.6% respectively. 10-year survival of patients with melanomas of the vulva was 64.5% in comparison to 22.3% of patients with non-vulva mucosal melanomas. Survival times differed significantly between patients with melanomas of the vulva compared to the rest (p = 0.0006). It also depends on T-stage at the time of diagnosis (p < 0.0001).

Adult out-of-hospital cardiac arrest based on chain of survival in Taoyuan County, northern Taiwan.

PubMed

Kuo, Chan-Wei; See, Lai-Chu; Tu, Hui-Tzu; Chen, Jih-Chang

2014-06-01

Most out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) studies have been conducted in developed countries or metropolitan areas, and few in developing countries or rural areas. The aims of this study were to determine the weak links in the chain of survival and to estimate the outcomes of OHCA patients in Taoyuan, a nonmetropolitan area in Taiwan. A retrospective review and analysis of OHCA data was conducted. The three outcomes were whether a return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) was achieved, whether the patient survived to admission, or whether the patient survived to hospital discharge. From April to December 2008, 1048 OHCA patients were resuscitated, and 712 (67.9%) adult cardiac patients were used in this study. Among these 712 patients, 17.8% achieved ROSC (95% confidence interval [CI] 15.2-20.8%), 16.3% survived to admission (95% CI 13.6-19.0%), and 1.4% survived to discharge (95% CI 0.5-2.3%). Factors significantly associated with the three outcomes were witness status, response time to emergency medical services, and whether the patient had a shockable rhythm. Bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) did not add a notable benefit to the outcomes of OHCA. The survival rate of OHCA patients in nonmetropolitan Taiwan was very low (1.4%). Lower witnessed rate, lower bystander CPR rate, and longer response interval in remote areas are the main causes of inferior survival rate. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) Results on Sikorsky Aircraft Survivable Affordable Reparable Airframe Program (SARAP) Samples

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zalameda, Joseph N.; Anastasi, Robert F.; Madaras, Eric I.

2004-01-01

The Survivable, Affordable, Reparable Airframe Program (SARAP) will develop/produce new structural design concepts with lower structural weight, reduced manufacturing complexity and development time, increased readiness, and improved threat protection. These new structural concepts will require advanced field capable inspection technologies to help meet the SARAP structural objectives. In the area of repair, damage assessment using nondestructive inspection (NDI) is critical to identify repair location and size. The purpose of this work is to conduct an assessment of new and emerging NDI methods that can potentially satisfy the SARAP program goals.

Advanced Online Survival Analysis Tool for Predictive Modelling in Clinical Data Science.

PubMed

Montes-Torres, Julio; Subirats, José Luis; Ribelles, Nuria; Urda, Daniel; Franco, Leonardo; Alba, Emilio; Jerez, José Manuel

2016-01-01

One of the prevailing applications of machine learning is the use of predictive modelling in clinical survival analysis. In this work, we present our view of the current situation of computer tools for survival analysis, stressing the need of transferring the latest results in the field of machine learning to biomedical researchers. We propose a web based software for survival analysis called OSA (Online Survival Analysis), which has been developed as an open access and user friendly option to obtain discrete time, predictive survival models at individual level using machine learning techniques, and to perform standard survival analysis. OSA employs an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based method to produce the predictive survival models. Additionally, the software can easily generate survival and hazard curves with multiple options to personalise the plots, obtain contingency tables from the uploaded data to perform different tests, and fit a Cox regression model from a number of predictor variables. In the Materials and Methods section, we depict the general architecture of the application and introduce the mathematical background of each of the implemented methods. The study concludes with examples of use showing the results obtained with public datasets.

Advanced Online Survival Analysis Tool for Predictive Modelling in Clinical Data Science

PubMed Central

Montes-Torres, Julio; Subirats, José Luis; Ribelles, Nuria; Urda, Daniel; Franco, Leonardo; Alba, Emilio; Jerez, José Manuel

2016-01-01

One of the prevailing applications of machine learning is the use of predictive modelling in clinical survival analysis. In this work, we present our view of the current situation of computer tools for survival analysis, stressing the need of transferring the latest results in the field of machine learning to biomedical researchers. We propose a web based software for survival analysis called OSA (Online Survival Analysis), which has been developed as an open access and user friendly option to obtain discrete time, predictive survival models at individual level using machine learning techniques, and to perform standard survival analysis. OSA employs an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based method to produce the predictive survival models. Additionally, the software can easily generate survival and hazard curves with multiple options to personalise the plots, obtain contingency tables from the uploaded data to perform different tests, and fit a Cox regression model from a number of predictor variables. In the Materials and Methods section, we depict the general architecture of the application and introduce the mathematical background of each of the implemented methods. The study concludes with examples of use showing the results obtained with public datasets. PMID:27532883

[Effect of Fuzheng Huayu capsules on survival rate of patients with liver cirrhosis].

PubMed

Ge, X J; Zhao, C Q; Xu, L M

2017-11-20

Objective: To investigate the effect of Fuzheng Huayu capsules on the survival rate of patients with liver cirrhosis. Methods: A retrospective analysis was performed for the clinical data of the patients with various types of liver cirrhosis who were hospitalized in Shuguang Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine from January 1, 2006 to December 31, 2008. The data collected for these patients included their basic information, diagnosis and treatment, and results of laboratory examination. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to analyze the effect of Fuzheng Huayu capsules on the survival rate of patients with liver cancer. The starting point of observation was the first day of the patient's admission and the ending point of follow-up observation was the date of death or the end of follow-up April 1, 2014. The cut-off value was obtained if the patient did not experience any outcome event (death) at the end of follow-up. With reference to the outcome, the time when the outcome occurred, and the cut-off value, the life-table method was used to calculate survival rates and survival curves were plotted. The Kaplan-Meier product-limit method was used to calculate the arithmetic mean of survival time and median survival time, and the log-rank test was used to compare the survival data. Results: A total of 430 patients with liver cirrhosis were enrolled, among whom 191 died and 239 survived or were censored. The average constituent ratio of death was 55.6% and the average constituent ratio of survival was 44.4%. The life-table method showed that the half-, 1-, 2-, and 5-year survival rates were 70%, 64%, 58%, and 48%, respectively. The median survival time was 112.1 weeks for the patients who did not take Fuzheng Huayu capsules and 351.6 weeks for those who did, and there was a significant difference in survival rate between the two groups ( P = 0.000). Among 313 patients who had an etiology of hepatitis B, 164 did not take Fuzheng Huayu capsules and had a median survival time of 195.9 weeks and a 5-year survival rate of 44%, and 149 took Fuzheng Huayu capsules and had a median survival time of 336.9 weeks and a 5-year survival rate of 59%; there was a significant difference in survival rate between the two groups ( P = 0.038). Among 117 patients who did not have hepatitis B, 68 did not take Fuzheng Huayu capsules and had a median survival time of 78.1 weeks and a 5-year survival rate of 32%, and 49 took Fuzheng Huayu capsules and had a median survival time of 277.4 weeks and a 5-year survival rate of 53%; there was a significant difference in survival rate between the two groups ( P = 0.013). Among 92 patients with compensated liver cirrhosis, 47 did not take Fuzheng Huayu capsules and had a 5-year survival rate of 65%, and 45 took Fuzheng Huayu capsules and had a 5-year survival rate of 82%; both groups of patients had a median survival of 440 weeks; there was a significant difference in survival rate between the two groups ( P = 0.027). Among 338 patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis, 185 did not take Fuzheng Huayu capsules and had a median survival time of 60.3 weeks and a 5-year survival rate of 33%, and 153 took Fuzheng Huayu capsules and had a median survival time of 267.7 weeks and a 5-year survival rate of 51%; there was a significant difference in survival rate between the two groups ( P = 0.001). Conclusion: Fuzheng Huayu capsules can improve the prognosis of patients with liver cirrhosis and increase their survival rates and have good long-term efficacy.

Drug-Resistant Bacteria: On the Edge of a Crisis | NIH MedlinePlus the Magazine

MedlinePlus

... such as understanding how microbes survive in different environments and exploiting that to fight them. We also spend a lot of time working with the pharmaceutical companies on concept development towards the ultimate development of new antibiotics. While ...

Long-term survival with modern therapeutic agents against metastatic melanoma-vemurafenib and ipilimumab in a daily life setting.

PubMed

Lang, B M; Peveling-Oberhag, A; Faidt, D; Hötker, A M; Weyer-Elberich, V; Grabbe, S; Loquai, C

2018-01-31

Despite new therapeutic options, metastatic melanoma remains to be one of the most fatal tumors. With the development of BRAF inhibitors and immune checkpoint inhibitors, overall survival could be prolonged significantly for the first time. Clinical studies implied that even long-term survival is possible with both types of drugs, but predictive markers are so far missing. In this study, we analyzed survival data from patients that received the first-in-class substances vemurafenib and ipilimumab, respectively, during the time period from registration of the drugs until availability of combination treatments. We aimed to evaluate the possibility of long-term survival in a daily life setting and to characterize patients that benefit from these drugs in order to gain insight into predictive attributes. Eighty patients were evaluated who were treated with either vemurafenib (n = 40) or ipilimumab (n = 40), and overall survival was analyzed. Subgroup analysis was performed for patients who were still alive 24 months after induction of therapy (long-term survival). Median overall survival (OS) was 8.0 months for patients treated with vemurafenib and 10.0 months for patients treated with ipilimumab (log-rank P value = 0.689). Long-term survival was achieved in 32.5% of patients (42.3% vemurafenib, 57.7% ipilimumab). Negative predictors of long-term survival in the vemurafenib group were brain and liver metastases, as well as elevated LDH, S100ß and liver enzymes. For ipilimumab, an increase in lymphocytes and eosinophils during course of treatment correlated with long-term survival. Our real-life experience shows that long-term survival is possible with using both therapeutic agents, vemurafenib and ipilimumab. Pattern of metastases and laboratory values might be of interest in decision making for a specific therapeutic approach. Combination of drugs and observational studies in larger patient cohorts are necessary to further validate our findings.

The influence of spatially and temporally varying oceanographic conditions on meroplanktonic metapopulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Botsford, L. W.; Moloney, C. L.; Hastings, A.; Largier, J. L.; Powell, T. M.; Higgins, K.; Quinn, J. F.

We synthesize the results of several modelling studies that address the influence of variability in larval transport and survival on the dynamics of marine metapopulations distributed along a coast. Two important benthic invertebrates in the California Current System (CCS), the Dungeness crab and the red sea urchin, are used as examples of the way in which physical oceanographic conditions can influence stability, synchrony and persistence of meroplanktonic metapopulations. We first explore population dynamics of subpopulations and metapopulations. Even without environmental forcing, isolated local subpopulations with density-dependence can vary on time scales roughly twice the generation time at high adult survival, shifting to annual time scales at low survivals. The high frequency behavior is not seen in models of the Dungeness crab, because of their high adult survival rates. Metapopulations with density-dependent recruitment and deterministic larval dispersal fluctuate in an asynchronous fashion. Along the coast, abundance varies on spatial scales which increase with dispersal distance. Coastwide, synchronous, random environmental variability tends to synchronize these metapopulations. Climate change could cause a long-term increase or decrease in mean larval survival, which in this model leads to greater synchrony or extinction respectively. Spatially managed metapopulations of red sea urchins go extinct when distances between harvest refugia become greater than the scale of larval dispersal. All assessments of population dynamics indicate that metapopulation behavior in general dependes critically on the temporal and spatial nature of larval dispersal, which is largely determined by physical oceanographic conditions. We therfore explore physical influences on larval dispersal patterns. Observed trends in temperature and salinity applied to laboratory-determined responses indicate that natural variability in temperature and salinity can lead to variability in larval development period on interannual (50%), intra-annual (20%) and latitudinal (200%) scales. Variability in development period significantly influences larval survival and, thus, net transport. Larval drifters that undertake diel vertical migration in a primitive equation model of coastal circulation (SPEM) demonstrate the importance of vertical migration in determining horizontal transport. Empirically derived estimates of the effects of wind forcing on larval transport of vertically migrating larvae (wind drift when near the surface and Ekman transport below the surface) match cross-shelf distributions in 4 years of existing larval data. We use a one-dimensional advection-diffusion model, which includes intra-annual timing of cross-shelf flows in the CCS, to explore the combined effects on settlement: (1) temperature- and salinity-dependent development and survival rates and (2) possible horizontal transport due to vertical migration of crab larvae. Natural variability in temperature, wind forcing, and the timing of the spring transition can cause the observed variability in recruitment. We conclude that understanding the dynamics of coastally distributed metapopulations in response to physically-induced variability in larval dispersal will be a critical step in assessing the effects of climate change on marine populations.

Effect of a long-term high-protein diet on survival, obesity development, and gut microbiota in mice.

PubMed

Kiilerich, Pia; Myrmel, Lene Secher; Fjære, Even; Hao, Qin; Hugenholtz, Floor; Sonne, Si Brask; Derrien, Muriel; Pedersen, Lone Møller; Petersen, Rasmus Koefoed; Mortensen, Alicja; Licht, Tine Rask; Rømer, Maria Unni; Vogel, Ulla Birgitte; Waagbø, Linn Jeanette; Giallourou, Natasa; Feng, Qiang; Xiao, Liang; Liu, Chuan; Liaset, Bjørn; Kleerebezem, Michiel; Wang, Jun; Madsen, Lise; Kristiansen, Karsten

2016-06-01

Female C57BL/6J mice were fed a regular low-fat diet or high-fat diets combined with either high or low protein-to-sucrose ratios during their entire lifespan to examine the long-term effects on obesity development, gut microbiota, and survival. Intake of a high-fat diet with a low protein/sucrose ratio precipitated obesity and reduced survival relative to mice fed a low-fat diet. By contrast, intake of a high-fat diet with a high protein/sucrose ratio attenuated lifelong weight gain and adipose tissue expansion, and survival was not significantly altered relative to low-fat-fed mice. Our findings support the notion that reduced survival in response to high-fat/high-sucrose feeding is linked to obesity development. Digital gene expression analyses, further validated by qPCR, demonstrated that the protein/sucrose ratio modulated global gene expression over time in liver and adipose tissue, affecting pathways related to metabolism and inflammation. Analysis of fecal bacterial DNA using the Mouse Intestinal Tract Chip revealed significant changes in the composition of the gut microbiota in relation to host age and dietary fat content, but not the protein/sucrose ratio. Accordingly, dietary fat rather than the protein/sucrose ratio or adiposity is a major driver shaping the gut microbiota, whereas the effect of a high-fat diet on survival is dependent on the protein/sucrose ratio. Copyright © 2016 the American Physiological Society.

SOLITARY CHEMORECEPTOR CELL SURVIVAL IS INDEPENDENT OF INTACT TRIGEMINAL INNERVATION

PubMed Central

Gulbransen, Brian; Silver, Wayne; Finger, Tom

2008-01-01

Nasal solitary chemoreceptor cells (SCCs) are a population of specialized chemosensory epithelial cells presumed to broaden trigeminal chemoreceptivity in mammals (Finger et al., 2003). SCCs are innervated by peptidergic trigeminal nerve fibers (Finger et al., 2003) but it is currently unknown if intact innervation is necessary for SCC development or survival. We tested the dependence of SCCs on innervation by eliminating trigeminal nerve fibers during development with neurogenin-1 knockout mice, during early postnatal development with capsaicin desensitization, and during adulthood with trigeminal lesioning. Our results demonstrate that elimination of innervation at any of these times does not result in decreased SCC numbers. In conclusion, neither SCC development nor mature cell maintenance is dependent on intact trigeminal innervation. PMID:18300260

Impact of latency time on survival for adolescents and young adults with a second primary malignancy.

PubMed

Goldfarb, Melanie; Rosenberg, Aaron S; Li, Qian; Keegan, Theresa H M

2018-03-15

The adverse impact of second primary malignancies (SPMs) on survival is substantial for adolescents and young adults (AYAs; ie, those 15-39 years old). No studies have evaluated whether the latency time between the first malignancy (the primary malignancy [PM]) and the SPM affects cancer-specific survival (CSS). A multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression with Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data for 13 regions from 1992 to 2008 was used to ascertain whether the latency time (1-5 vs ≥ 6 years) to the development of an SPM affected the CSS and overall survival with respect to either the PM or SPM for AYAs with common SPMs. The majority of 1515 AYAs with an SPM had their PM diagnosed between the ages of 26 and 39 years (74.2%) and an SPM diagnosed within 1 to 5 years (72.9%) of the PM's diagnosis. Overall, AYAs that developed an SPM 1 to 5 years after the diagnosis (vs ≥ 6 years) had an increased risk of death from cancer (hazard ratio [HR], 2.52; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.92-3.29) as well as any cause (HR, 2.60; 95% CI, 2.04-3.32). Specifically, for AYAs with an SPM that was leukemia or a colorectal, breast, or central nervous system malignancy, a shorter latency time (1-5 years) from their PM diagnosis was associated with an overall significantly increased risk of death (2.6-fold) from either their PM or that particular SPM. However, latency did not appear to affect the CSS with respect to either the PM or SPM for AYA patients with a lymphoma or sarcoma SPM. Most AYAs who develop an SPM do so within 1 to 5 years of their primary cancer diagnosis, and they have an increased risk of death from cancer in comparison with AYAs with an SPM developing after longer survivorship intervals. Cancer 2018;124:1260-8. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Grass Pollen Affects Survival and Development of Larval Anopheles arabiensis (Diptera: Culicidae).

PubMed

Asmare, Yelfwagash; Hopkins, Richard J; Tekie, Habte; Hill, Sharon R; Ignell, Rickard

2017-09-01

Nutrients in breeding sites are critical for the survival and development of malaria mosquitoes, having a direct impact on vectorial capacity. Yet, there is a limited understanding about the natural larval diet and its impact on the individual fitness of mosquitoes. Recent studies have shown that gravid Anopheles arabiensis Patton (Diptera: Culicidae) are attracted by and oviposit in grass-associated habitats. The pollen provided by these grasses is a potential source of nutrients for the larvae. Here, we assess the effect of Typha latifolia L. (Poales: Typhaceae), Echinochloa pyramidalis Lamarck, Pennisetum setaceum Forsskål, and Zea mays L. pollen on larval survival and rate of development in An. arabiensis under laboratory conditions. In addition, we characterize the carbon to nitrogen ratio and the size of pollen grains as a measure of diet quality. Carbon-rich pollen with a small grain size (T. latifolia and P. setaceum; 9.7 ± 0.3 × 103 and 5.5 ± 0.2 × 104 µm3, respectively) resulted in enhanced rates of development of An. arabiensis. In contrast, the larva fed on the nitrogen-rich control diet (TetraMin) was slower to develop, but demonstrated the highest larval survival. Larvae fed on carbon-rich and large-grained Z. mays pollen (4.1 ± 0.2 × 105 µm3) survived at similar levels as those fed on the control diet and also took a longer time to develop compared with larvae fed on the other pollens. While males and females did not appear to develop differently on the different pollen diets, males consistently emerged faster than their female counterparts. These results are discussed in relation to integrated vector management. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America.

Semiparametric methods to contrast gap time survival functions: Application to repeat kidney transplantation.

PubMed

Shu, Xu; Schaubel, Douglas E

2016-06-01

Times between successive events (i.e., gap times) are of great importance in survival analysis. Although many methods exist for estimating covariate effects on gap times, very few existing methods allow for comparisons between gap times themselves. Motivated by the comparison of primary and repeat transplantation, our interest is specifically in contrasting the gap time survival functions and their integration (restricted mean gap time). Two major challenges in gap time analysis are non-identifiability of the marginal distributions and the existence of dependent censoring (for all but the first gap time). We use Cox regression to estimate the (conditional) survival distributions of each gap time (given the previous gap times). Combining fitted survival functions based on those models, along with multiple imputation applied to censored gap times, we then contrast the first and second gap times with respect to average survival and restricted mean lifetime. Large-sample properties are derived, with simulation studies carried out to evaluate finite-sample performance. We apply the proposed methods to kidney transplant data obtained from a national organ transplant registry. Mean 10-year graft survival of the primary transplant is significantly greater than that of the repeat transplant, by 3.9 months (p=0.023), a result that may lack clinical importance. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.

Lung cancer incidence and survival among HIV-infected and uninfected women and men.

PubMed

Hessol, Nancy A; Martínez-Maza, Otoniel; Levine, Alexandra M; Morris, Alison; Margolick, Joseph B; Cohen, Mardge H; Jacobson, Lisa P; Seaberg, Eric C

2015-06-19

To determine the lung cancer incidence and survival time among HIV-infected and uninfected women and men. Two longitudinal studies of HIV infection in the United States. Data from 2549 women in the Women's Interagency HIV Study (WIHS) and 4274 men in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS), all with a history of cigarette smoking, were analyzed. Lung cancer incidence rates and incidence rate ratios were calculated using Poisson regression analyses. Survival time was assessed using Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional-hazard analyses. Thirty-seven women and 23 men developed lung cancer (46 HIV-infected and 14 HIV-uninfected) during study follow-up. In multivariable analyses, the factors that were found to be independently associated with a higher lung cancer incidence rate ratios were older age, less education, 10 or more pack-years of smoking, and a prior diagnosis of AIDS pneumonia (vs. HIV-uninfected women). In an adjusted Cox model that allowed different hazard functions for each cohort, a history of injection drug use was associated with shorter survival, and a lung cancer diagnosis after 2001 was associated with longer survival. In an adjusted Cox model restricted to HIV-infected participants, nadir CD4 lymphocyte cell count less than 200 was associated with shorter survival time. Our data suggest that pulmonary damage and inflammation associated with HIV infection may be causative for the increased risk of lung cancer. Encouraging and assisting younger HIV-infected smokers to quit and to sustain cessation of smoking is imperative to reduce the lung cancer burden in this population.

High emergency organ allocation rule in lung transplantation: a simulation study.

PubMed

Riou, Julien; Boëlle, Pierre-Yves; Christie, Jason D; Thabut, Gabriel

2017-10-01

The scarcity of suitable organ donors leads to protracted waiting times and mortality in patients awaiting lung transplantation. This study aims to assess the short- and long-term effects of a high emergency organ allocation policy on the outcome of lung transplantation. We developed a simulation model of lung transplantation waiting queues under two allocation strategies, based either on waiting time only or on additional criteria to prioritise the sickest patients. The model was informed by data from the United Network for Organ Sharing. We compared the impact of these strategies on waiting time, waiting list mortality and overall survival in various situations of organ scarcity. The impact of a high emergency allocation strategy depends largely on the organ supply. When organ supply is sufficient (>95 organs per 100 patients), it may prevent a small number of early deaths (1 year survival: 93.7% against 92.4% for waiting time only) without significant impact on waiting times or long-term survival. When the organ/recipient ratio is lower, the benefits in early mortality are larger but are counterbalanced by a dramatic increase of the size of the waiting list. Consequently, we observed a progressive increase of mortality on the waiting list (although still lower than with waiting time only), a deterioration of patients' condition at transplant and a decrease of post-transplant survival times. High emergency organ allocation is an effective strategy to reduce mortality on the waiting list, but causes a disruption of the list equilibrium that may have detrimental long-term effects in situations of significant organ scarcity.

High emergency organ allocation rule in lung transplantation: a simulation study

PubMed Central

Boëlle, Pierre-Yves; Christie, Jason D.; Thabut, Gabriel

2017-01-01

The scarcity of suitable organ donors leads to protracted waiting times and mortality in patients awaiting lung transplantation. This study aims to assess the short- and long-term effects of a high emergency organ allocation policy on the outcome of lung transplantation. We developed a simulation model of lung transplantation waiting queues under two allocation strategies, based either on waiting time only or on additional criteria to prioritise the sickest patients. The model was informed by data from the United Network for Organ Sharing. We compared the impact of these strategies on waiting time, waiting list mortality and overall survival in various situations of organ scarcity. The impact of a high emergency allocation strategy depends largely on the organ supply. When organ supply is sufficient (>95 organs per 100 patients), it may prevent a small number of early deaths (1 year survival: 93.7% against 92.4% for waiting time only) without significant impact on waiting times or long-term survival. When the organ/recipient ratio is lower, the benefits in early mortality are larger but are counterbalanced by a dramatic increase of the size of the waiting list. Consequently, we observed a progressive increase of mortality on the waiting list (although still lower than with waiting time only), a deterioration of patients’ condition at transplant and a decrease of post-transplant survival times. High emergency organ allocation is an effective strategy to reduce mortality on the waiting list, but causes a disruption of the list equilibrium that may have detrimental long-term effects in situations of significant organ scarcity. PMID:29181383

Teacher Survival Rates--A Current Look

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mark, Jonathan H.; Anderson, Barry D.

1978-01-01

To examine how survival rates change with time, each cohort of new entrants to the public school teaching profession between 1968 and 1976 was examined. Results replicated Charters' downward sloping survival curve, although the curve has shifted up steadily through time. The survival rate differential between men and women is decreasing over time.…

A Porcine Model for Endolaparoscopic Abdominal Aortic Repair and Endoscopic Training

PubMed Central

Zarins, Christopher K.; Daunt, David A.; Coleman, Leslie A.; Saenz, Yamil; Fogarty, Thomas J.; Hermann, George D.; Nezhat, Camran R.; Olsen, Eric K.

2003-01-01

Objective: The goals of this laboratory model were to evaluate the performance of the surgical team and endolaparoscopic techniques in the porcine model of infrarenal abdominal aortic repair. Methods: Twenty-four pigs underwent full endolaparoscopic aorto-aortic graft implantation with voice-activated computerized robotics. The first group of 10 pigs (acute) was sacrificed while under anesthesia at 0.5 hours (5 animals) and 2 hours (5 animals). The second group of 14 pigs (survival) were recovered from anesthesia and maintained for 7 hours (5 pigs) and 7 days (9 pigs) prior to sacrifice. Survival animals were observed for evidence of hind limb dysfunction. All grafts were visually inspected at autopsy. Results: All animals survived the operation. All grafts were successfully implanted, and all were patent with intact anastomoses at autopsy. Mean aortic clamp time for each group was as follows: acute, 92.9±28.04 minutes; survival, 59.6±13.8 minutes; P=0.0008. Total operative time for each group was as follows: acute, 179±39.6 minutes; survival, 164.6±48 minutes; P=0.44 ns. Estimated blood loss for each group was as follows: acute, 214±437.8 mL; survival 169.2±271 mL; P=0.76 ns. The following outcomes were observed: 1 animal died from respiratory arrest; 1 animal suffered motor sensory dysfunction of the hind limbs (spinal cord ischemia); significant bleeding occurred in 6 of 24 pigs; 8 of the 9 seven-day survivors required minimal pain medication and had normal hind limb function. Conclusions: The reduction in aortic clamp time, total operative time, and blood loss as the study progressed indicate the feasibility of this surgical protocol and the maturation of the learning process, which is paramount in prevention of 2 main sources of morbidity: bleeding and spinal cord ischemia. The reduction in aortic clamp time between the acute and survival groups was dramatic and statistically significant. An intensive formal training program combining dry and live surgical laboratories is deemed essential for the development of endoscopic skill sets necessary for this challenging procedure. PMID:12856843

Improving Our Ability to Evaluate Underlying Mechanisms of Behavioral Onset and Other Event Occurrence Outcomes: A Discrete-Time Survival Mediation Model

PubMed Central

Fairchild, Amanda J.; Abara, Winston E.; Gottschall, Amanda C.; Tein, Jenn-Yun; Prinz, Ronald J.

2015-01-01

The purpose of this article is to introduce and describe a statistical model that researchers can use to evaluate underlying mechanisms of behavioral onset and other event occurrence outcomes. Specifically, the article develops a framework for estimating mediation effects with outcomes measured in discrete-time epochs by integrating the statistical mediation model with discrete-time survival analysis. The methodology has the potential to help strengthen health research by targeting prevention and intervention work more effectively as well as by improving our understanding of discretized periods of risk. The model is applied to an existing longitudinal data set to demonstrate its use, and programming code is provided to facilitate its implementation. PMID:24296470

Contralateral Cruciate Survival in Dogs with Unilateral Non-Contact Cranial Cruciate Ligament Rupture

PubMed Central

Muir, Peter; Schwartz, Zeev; Malek, Sarah; Kreines, Abigail; Cabrera, Sady Y.; Buote, Nicole J.; Bleedorn, Jason A.; Schaefer, Susan L.; Holzman, Gerianne; Hao, Zhengling

2011-01-01

Background Non-contact cranial cruciate ligament rupture (CrCLR) is an important cause of lameness in client-owned dogs and typically occurs without obvious injury. There is a high incidence of bilateral rupture at presentation or subsequent contralateral rupture in affected dogs. Although stifle synovitis increases risk of contralateral CrCLR, relatively little is known about risk factors for subsequent contralateral rupture, or whether therapeutic intervention may modify this risk. Methodology/Principal Findings We conducted a longitudinal study examining survival of the contralateral CrCL in client-owned dogs with unilateral CrCLR in a large baseline control population (n = 380), and a group of dogs that received disease-modifying therapy with arthroscopic lavage, intra-articular hyaluronic acid and oral doxycycline (n = 16), and were followed for one year. Follow-up in treated dogs included analysis of mobility, radiographic evaluation of stifle effusion and arthritis, and quantification of biomarkers of synovial inflammation. We found that median survival of the contralateral CrCL was 947 days. Increasing tibial plateau angle decreased contralateral ligament survival, whereas increasing age at diagnosis increased survival. Contralateral ligament survival was reduced in neutered dogs. Our disease-modifying therapy did not significantly influence contralateral ligament survival. Correlative analysis of clinical and biomarker variables with development of subsequent contralateral rupture revealed few significant results. However, increased expression of T lymphocyte-associated genes in the index unstable stifle at diagnosis was significantly related to development of subsequent non-contact contralateral CrCLR. Conclusion Subsequent contralateral CrCLR is common in client-owned dogs, with a median ligament survival time of 947 days. In this naturally occurring model of non-contact cruciate ligament rupture, cranial tibial translation is preceded by development of synovial inflammation. However, treatment with arthroscopic lavage, intra-articular hyaluronic acid and oral doxycycline does not significantly influence contralateral CrCL survival. PMID:21998650

Impact of triple-negative phenotype on prognosis of patients with breast cancer brain metastases.

PubMed

Xu, Zhiyuan; Schlesinger, David; Toulmin, Sushila; Rich, Tyvin; Sheehan, Jason

2012-11-01

To elucidate survival times and identify potential prognostic factors in patients with triple-negative (TN) phenotype who harbored brain metastases arising from breast cancer and who underwent stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS). A total of 103 breast cancer patients with brain metastases were treated with SRS and then studied retrospectively. Twenty-four patients (23.3%) were TN. Survival times were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method, with a log-rank test computing the survival time difference between groups. Univariate and multivariate analyses to predict potential prognostic factors were performed using a Cox proportional hazard regression model. The presence of TN phenotype was associated with worse survival times, including overall survival after the diagnosis of primary breast cancer (43 months vs. 82 months), neurologic survival after the diagnosis of intracranial metastases, and radiosurgical survival after SRS, with median survival times being 13 months vs. 25 months and 6 months vs. 16 months, respectively (p < 0.002 in all three comparisons). On multivariate analysis, radiosurgical survival benefit was associated with non-TN status and lower recursive partitioning analysis class at the initial SRS. The TN phenotype represents a significant adverse prognostic factor with respect to overall survival, neurologic survival, and radiosurgical survival in breast cancer patients with intracranial metastasis. Recursive partitioning analysis class also served as an important and independent prognostic factor. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effect of developmental stage of unfed fry on survival and growth of steelhead released in a stream and hatchery ponds (Study sites: Dworshak Hatchery and North Fork Palouse River; Stock: Dworshak hatchery; Year class: 1996): Chapter 6

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rubin, Stephen P.; Reisenbichler, Reginald R.; Wetzel, Lisa A.; Stenberg, Karl D.; Rubin, Stephen P.; Reisenbichler, Reginald R.; Wetzel, Lisa A.; Hayes, Michael C.

2012-01-01

We tested whether differences in developmental stage of unfed fry at release affected subsequent survival and growth of steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss in a stream and hatchery ponds. Differences in development were created by artificially spawning hatchery steelhead from the Clearwater River, Idaho, and incubating their progeny at three different temperatures (means=10.9, 11.3, and 11.7°C). Time between fertilization and maximum alevin wet weight (MAWW) was predicted from incubation temperature using a model. MAWW is equivalent to the button - up fry stage of development. Developmental stages at release were “underdeveloped” (97.7% of model - predicted time to MAWW, mean weight=0.177 g, proportion yolk=0.087), “intermediate” (102.5%, 0.179 g, 0.044), and “overdeveloped” (107.9%, 0.156 g, 0.030). Neither survival nor growth in the hatchery to near the end of the standard one year rearing period differed among groups. In the stream, frequency of overdeveloped fish relative to the other two groups decreased fro m release in May to September, probably indicating lower survival for the overdeveloped fish during that interval since emigration of sub - yearlings is typically negligible. Length in September was less for overdeveloped than for intermediate fish and was in between for underdeveloped fish, suggesting that growth between May and September was less for overdeveloped fish than for intermediate fish. Although changes in relative frequency and size occurred among fry development groups from September to one ye ar later, those changes may have reflected differences in emigration rate during the interval rather than differential survival or growth. Our results show a cost to survival and growth in a stream, but not in a hatchery, from overdevelopment characterize d by loss of weight and yolk reserves relative to fry closer to MAWW at release. We didn’t find any cost from underdevelopment; however, our underdeveloped fry were closer to MAWW than the overdeveloped fry, and they may have been no farther from MAWW than the intermediate fry based on percentage of model - predicted time to MAWW at release. 

A Generalizable Methodology for Quantifying User Satisfaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Te-Yuan; Chen, Kuan-Ta; Huang, Polly; Lei, Chin-Laung

Quantifying user satisfaction is essential, because the results can help service providers deliver better services. In this work, we propose a generalizable methodology, based on survival analysis, to quantify user satisfaction in terms of session times, i. e., the length of time users stay with an application. Unlike subjective human surveys, our methodology is based solely on passive measurement, which is more cost-efficient and better able to capture subconscious reactions. Furthermore, by using session times, rather than a specific performance indicator, such as the level of distortion of voice signals, the effects of other factors like loudness and sidetone, can also be captured by the developed models. Like survival analysis, our methodology is characterized by low complexity and a simple model-developing process. The feasibility of our methodology is demonstrated through case studies of ShenZhou Online, a commercial MMORPG in Taiwan, and the most prevalent VoIP application in the world, namely Skype. Through the model development process, we can also identify the most significant performance factors and their impacts on user satisfaction and discuss how they can be exploited to improve user experience and optimize resource allocation.

Insect growth regulator effects of azadirachtin and neem oil on survivorship, development and fecundity of Aphis glycines (Homoptera: Aphididae) and its predator, Harmonia axyridis (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae).

PubMed

Kraiss, Heidi; Cullen, Eileen M

2008-06-01

Aphis glycines Matsumura, an invasive insect pest in North American soybeans, is fed upon by a key biological control agent, Harmonia axyridis Pallas. Although biological control is preferentially relied upon to suppress insect pests in organic agriculture, approved insecticides, such as neem, are periodically utilized to reduce damaging pest populations. The authors evaluated direct spray treatments of two neem formulations, azadirachtin and neem seed oil, under controlled conditions for effects on survivorship, development time and fecundity in A. glycines and H. axyridis. Both azadirachtin and neem seed oil significantly increased aphid nymphal mortality (80 and 77% respectively) while significantly increasing development time of those surviving to adulthood. First-instar H. axyridis survival to adulthood was also significantly reduced by both neem formulations, while only azadirachtin reduced third-instar survivorship. Azadirachtin increased H. axyridis development time to adult when applied to both instars, while neem oil only increased time to adult when applied to first instar. Neither neem formulation affected the fecundity of either insect. Results are discussed within the context of future laboratory and field studies aimed at clarifying if neem-derived insecticides can be effectively integrated with biological control for soybean aphid management in organic soybeans. Copyright (c) 2008 Society of Chemical Industry.

The reduced-risk insecticide azadirachtin poses a toxicological hazard to stingless bee Partamona helleri (Friese, 1900) queens.

PubMed

Bernardes, Rodrigo Cupertino; Barbosa, Wagner Faria; Martins, Gustavo Ferreira; Lima, Maria Augusta Pereira

2018-06-01

Large-scale pesticide application poses a major threat to bee biodiversity by causing a decline in bee populations that, in turn, compromises ecosystem maintenance and agricultural productivity. Biopesticides are considered an alternative to synthetic pesticides with a focus on reducing potential detrimental effects to beneficial organisms such as bees. The production of healthy queen stingless bees is essential for the survival and reproduction of hives, although it remains unknown whether biopesticides influence stingless bee reproduction. In the present study, we investigated the effects of the biopesticide azadirachtin on the survival, behavior, morphology, development, and reproduction of queens of the stingless bee Partamona helleri (Friese, 1900). The neonicotinoid imidacloprid was used as a toxic reference standard. Queens were orally exposed in vitro to a contaminated diet (containing azadirachtin and imidacloprid) during development. Azadirachtin resulted in reduced survival, similarly to imidacloprid, altered development time, caused deformations, and reduced the size of the queens' reproductive organs. All of these factors could potentially compromise colony survival. Results from the present study showed azadirachtin posed a toxicological hazard to P. helleri queens. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling the Ozone-Based Treatments for Inactivation of Microorganisms

PubMed Central

Brodowska, Agnieszka Joanna; Nowak, Agnieszka; Kondratiuk-Janyska, Alina; Piątkowski, Marcin; Śmigielski, Krzysztof

2017-01-01

The paper presents the development of a model for ozone treatment in a dynamic bed of different microorganisms (Bacillus subtilis, B. cereus, B. pumilus, Escherichia coli, Pseudomonas fluorescens, Aspergillus niger, Eupenicillium cinnamopurpureum) on a heterogeneous matrix (juniper berries, cardamom seeds) initially treated with numerous ozone doses during various contact times was studied. Taking into account various microorganism susceptibility to ozone, it was of great importance to develop a sufficiently effective ozone dose to preserve food products using different strains based on the microbial model. For this purpose, we have chosen the Weibull model to describe the survival curves of different microorganisms. Based on the results of microorganism survival modelling after ozone treatment and considering the least susceptible strains to ozone, we selected the critical ones. Among tested strains, those from genus Bacillus were recognized as the most critical strains. In particular, B. subtilis and B. pumilus possessed the highest resistance to ozone treatment because the time needed to achieve the lowest level of its survival was the longest (up to 17.04 min and 16.89 min for B. pumilus reduction on juniper berry and cardamom seed matrix, respectively). Ozone treatment allow inactivate microorganisms to achieving lower survival rates by ozone dose (20.0 g O3/m3 O2, with a flow rate of 0.4 L/min) and contact time (up to 20 min). The results demonstrated that a linear correlation between parameters p and k in Weibull distribution, providing an opportunity to calculate a fitted equation of the process. PMID:28991199

Rhabdomyosarcoma Arising in a Previously Irradiated Field: An Analysis of 43 Patients

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dang, Nguyen D.; Teh, Bin S.; Paulino, Arnold C., E-mail: apaulino@tmhs.org

2013-03-01

Patients with soft tissue sarcomas that arise from previously irradiated fields have traditionally been reported to have a poor prognosis. In this report, we examined the characteristics and outcomes of patients who developed a rhabdomyosarcoma in a previously irradiated field (RMS-RIF); we hypothesize that these patients should have a better outcome compared to other postradiation soft tissue sarcomas as these tumors are chemosensitive and radiosensitive. A PubMed search of the literature from 1961-2010 yielded 33 studies with data for patients with RMS-RIF. The study included 43 patients with a median age of 6.5 years at the time of radiation therapymore » (RT) for the initial tumor. The median RT dose was 48 Gy. The median latency period, the time from RT to development of RMS-RIF, was 8 years. The 3-year overall survival for RMS-RIF was 42%. The 3-year overall survival was 66% for patients receiving chemotherapy and local treatment (surgery and/or RT) compared to 29% for those who had systemic treatment only or local treatment only (P=.049). Other factors associated with increased 3-year overall survival included retinoblastoma initial diagnosis (P<.001), age ≤18 years at diagnosis of RMS-RIF (P=.003), favorable site (P=.008), and stage 1 disease (P=.002). Age at time of RMS-RIF, retinoblastoma initial tumor, favorable site, stage 1 disease, and use of both systemic and local treatment were found to be favorable prognostic factors for 3-year overall survival.« less

Linking age, survival, and transit time distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calabrese, Salvatore; Porporato, Amilcare

2015-10-01

Although the concepts of age, survival, and transit time have been widely used in many fields, including population dynamics, chemical engineering, and hydrology, a comprehensive mathematical framework is still missing. Here we discuss several relationships among these quantities by starting from the evolution equation for the joint distribution of age and survival, from which the equations for age and survival time readily follow. It also becomes apparent how the statistical dependence between age and survival is directly related to either the age dependence of the loss function or the survival-time dependence of the input function. The solution of the joint distribution equation also allows us to obtain the relationships between the age at exit (or death) and the survival time at input (or birth), as well as to stress the symmetries of the various distributions under time reversal. The transit time is then obtained as a sum of the age and survival time, and its properties are discussed along with the general relationships between their mean values. The special case of steady state case is analyzed in detail. Some examples, inspired by hydrologic applications, are presented to illustrate the theory with the specific results. This article was corrected on 11 Nov 2015. See the end of the full text for details.

Test for age-specificity in survival of the common tern

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nisbet, I.C.T.; Cam, E.

2002-01-01

Much effort in life-history theory has been addressed to the dependence of life-history traits on age, especially the phenomenon of senescence and its evolution. Although senescent declines in survival are well documented in humans and in domestic and laboratory animals, evidence for their occurrence and importance in wild animal species remains limited and equivocal. Several recent papers have suggested that methodological issues may contribute to this problem, and have encouraged investigators to improve sampling designs and to analyse their data using recently developed approaches to modelling of capture-mark-recapture data. Here we report on a three-year, two-site, mark-recapture study of known-aged common terns (Sterna hirundo) in the north-eastern USA. The study was nested within a long-term ecological study in which large numbers of chicks had been banded in each year for > 25 years. We used a range of models to test the hypothesis of an influence of age on survival probability. We also tested for a possible influence of sex on survival. The cross-sectional design of the study (one year's parameter estimates) avoided the possible confounding of effects of age and time. The study was conducted at a time when one of the study sites was being colonized and numbers were increasing rapidly. We detected two-way movements between the sites and estimated movement probabilities in the year for which they could be modelled. We also obtained limited data on emigration from our study area to more distant sites. We found no evidence that survival depended on either sex or age, except that survival was lower among the youngest birds (ages 2-3 years). Despite the large number of birds included in the study (1599 known-aged birds, 2367 total), confidence limits on estimates of survival probability were wide, especially for the oldest age-classes, so that a slight decline in survival late in life could not have been detected. In addition, the cross-sectional design of this study meant that a decline in survival probability within individuals (actuarial senescence) could have been masked by heterogeneity in survival probability among individuals (mortality selection). This emphasizes the need for the development of modelling tools permitting separation of these two phenomena, valid under field conditions in which the recapture probabilities are less than one.

Selection by mating competitiveness improves the performance of Anastrepha ludens males of the genetic sexing strain Tapachula-7.

PubMed

Quintero-Fong, L; Toledo, J; Ruiz, L; Rendón, P; Orozco-Dávila, D; Cruz, L; Liedo, P

2016-10-01

The sexual performance of Anastrepha ludens males of the Tapachula-7 genetic sexing strain, produced via selection based on mating success, was compared with that of males produced without selection in competition with wild males. Mating competition, development time, survival, mass-rearing quality parameters and pheromone production were compared. The results showed that selection based on mating competitiveness significantly improved the sexual performance of offspring. Development time, survival of larvae, pupae and adults, and weights of larvae and pupae increased with each selection cycle. Differences in the relative quantity of the pheromone compounds (Z)-3-nonenol and anastrephin were observed when comparing the parental males with the F4 and wild males. The implications of this colony management method on the sterile insect technique are discussed.

[The reasons and background for the rise of college education of Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) in modern times].

PubMed

Yang, Wen-jie; Huang, Ying; Li, Jie

2009-09-01

With western learning spreading throughout the orient, the survival and development of TCM was restrained to a large degree due to the medical administrative policy, educational system and diffusion of western medicine at different social levels. Facing this adversity, the TCM sector complied with the changing times and survived through persistent efforts as well as wide and solid popular foundations, striving actively for the legitimacy status of TCM education and establishing several TCM colleges. During the course of running the colleges, the TCM sector was brave in changing ideas and giving and accepting new knowledge, it explored a comprehensive educational syllabus, which not only promoted the development of TCM education in the Republican period of China, but also laid a foundation for TCM education in the new period.

CT texture features of liver parenchyma for predicting development of metastatic disease and overall survival in patients with colorectal cancer.

PubMed

Lee, Scott J; Zea, Ryan; Kim, David H; Lubner, Meghan G; Deming, Dustin A; Pickhardt, Perry J

2018-04-01

To determine if identifiable hepatic textural features are present at abdominal CT in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) prior to the development of CT-detectable hepatic metastases. Four filtration-histogram texture features (standard deviation, skewness, entropy and kurtosis) were extracted from the liver parenchyma on portal venous phase CT images at staging and post-treatment surveillance. Surveillance scans corresponded to the last scan prior to the development of CT-detectable CRC liver metastases in 29 patients (median time interval, 6 months), and these were compared with interval-matched surveillance scans in 60 CRC patients who did not develop liver metastases. Predictive models of liver metastasis-free survival and overall survival were built using regularised Cox proportional hazards regression. Texture features did not significantly differ between cases and controls. For Cox models using all features as predictors, all coefficients were shrunk to zero, suggesting no association between any CT texture features and outcomes. Prognostic indices derived from entropy features at surveillance CT incorrectly classified patients into risk groups for future liver metastases (p < 0.001). On surveillance CT scans immediately prior to the development of CRC liver metastases, we found no evidence suggesting that changes in identifiable hepatic texture features were predictive of their development. • No correlation between liver texture features and metastasis-free survival was observed. • Liver texture features incorrectly classified patients into risk groups for liver metastases. • Standardised texture analysis workflows need to be developed to improve research reproducibility.

Survival and Neurodevelopmental Outcomes among Periviable Infants.

PubMed

Younge, Noelle; Goldstein, Ricki F; Bann, Carla M; Hintz, Susan R; Patel, Ravi M; Smith, P Brian; Bell, Edward F; Rysavy, Matthew A; Duncan, Andrea F; Vohr, Betty R; Das, Abhik; Goldberg, Ronald N; Higgins, Rosemary D; Cotten, C Michael

2017-02-16

Data reported during the past 5 years indicate that rates of survival have increased among infants born at the borderline of viability, but less is known about how increased rates of survival among these infants relate to early childhood neurodevelopmental outcomes. We compared survival and neurodevelopmental outcomes among infants born at 22 to 24 weeks of gestation, as assessed at 18 to 22 months of corrected age, across three consecutive birth-year epochs (2000-2003 [epoch 1], 2004-2007 [epoch 2], and 2008-2011 [epoch 3]). The infants were born at 11 centers that participated in the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Neonatal Research Network. The primary outcome measure was a three-level outcome - survival without neurodevelopmental impairment, survival with neurodevelopmental impairment, or death. After accounting for differences in infant characteristics, including birth center, we used multinomial generalized logit models to compare the relative risk of survival without neurodevelopmental impairment, survival with neurodevelopmental impairment, and death. Data on the primary outcome were available for 4274 of 4458 infants (96%) born at the 11 centers. The percentage of infants who survived increased from 30% (424 of 1391 infants) in epoch 1 to 36% (487 of 1348 infants) in epoch 3 (P<0.001). The percentage of infants who survived without neurodevelopmental impairment increased from 16% (217 of 1391) in epoch 1 to 20% (276 of 1348) in epoch 3 (P=0.001), whereas the percentage of infants who survived with neurodevelopmental impairment did not change significantly (15% [207 of 1391] in epoch 1 and 16% [211 of 1348] in epoch 3, P=0.29). After adjustment for changes in the baseline characteristics of the infants over time, both the rate of survival with neurodevelopmental impairment (as compared with death) and the rate of survival without neurodevelopmental impairment (as compared with death) increased over time (adjusted relative risks, 1.27 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.01 to 1.59] and 1.59 [95% CI, 1.28 to 1.99], respectively). The rate of survival without neurodevelopmental impairment increased between 2000 and 2011 in this large cohort of periviable infants. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and others; ClinicalTrials.gov numbers, NCT00063063 and NCT00009633 .).

A Single Center Study of 1,179 Heart Transplant Patients-Factors Affecting Pacemaker Implantation.

PubMed

Wellmann, Petra; Herrmann, Florian Ernst Martin; Hagl, Christian; Juchem, Gerd

2017-03-01

After around 10% of heart transplant patients require pacemaker implantation. The bradyarrhythmias causing pacemaker requirement include sinus node dysfunction (SND) and atrioventricular block (AVB). This study sought to define clinical predictors for pacemaker requirement as well as identify differences in the patient groups developing SND and AVB. Our operative database was used to collect retrospective recipient, donor, and operative data of all patients receiving orthotopic heart transplants between 1981 and 2016. In the 35-year period 1,179 transplants were performed (mean recipient age 45.5 ± 0.5 years, 20.4% female, 90.6% biatrial technique) with bradyarrhythmias requiring pacemaker implantation developing in 135 patients (11.5%). Independent risk factors were prolonged operative time 340 minutes versus 313 minutes (P = 0.027) and a biatrial anastomosis (P = 0.036). Ischemia time, cardiopulmonary bypass time, aortic cross clamp time, and reperfusion time all had no significant effect on pacemaker implantation rates. Similarly, whether the transplant was a reoperation, a retransplant, or performed after primary assist implantation had no effects on pacemaker implantation rates. There was no survival difference between the paced and nonpaced groups. The donor age was higher in the patients who developed AVB as the indication for pacemaker implantation (43 vs 34 years, P = 0.031). Patients with AVB had longer aortic cross clamp times and developed the arrhythmia later than those who developed SND. Use of the bicaval instead of the biatrial technique and shortened operative times should reduce pacemaker requirement after heart transplantation. Survival is not affected by this complication. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Association between bacterial survival and free chlorine concentration during commercial fresh-cut produce wash operation.

PubMed

Luo, Yaguang; Zhou, Bin; Van Haute, Sam; Nou, Xiangwu; Zhang, Boce; Teng, Zi; Turner, Ellen R; Wang, Qin; Millner, Patricia D

2018-04-01

Determining the minimal effective free chlorine (FC) concentration for preventing pathogen survival and cross-contamination during produce washing is critical for developing science- and risk-based food safety practices. The correlation between dynamic FC concentrations and bacterial survival was investigated during commercial washing of chopped Romaine lettuce, shredded Iceberg lettuce, and diced cabbage as pathogen inoculation study during commercial operation is not feasible. Wash water was sampled every 30 min and assayed for organic loading, FC, and total aerobic mesophilic bacteria after chlorine neutralization. Water turbidity, chemical oxygen demand, and total dissolved solids increased significantly over time, with more rapid increases in diced cabbage water. Combined chlorine increased consistently while FC fluctuated in response to rates of chlorine dosing, product loading, and water replenishment. Total bacterial survival showed a strong correlation with real-time FC concentration. Under approximately 10 mg/L, increasing FC significantly reduced the frequency and population of surviving bacteria detected. Increasing FC further resulted in the reduction of the aerobic plate count to below the detection limit (50 CFU/100 mL), except for a few sporadic positive samples with low cell counts. This study confirms that maintaining at least 10 mg/L FC in wash water strongly reduced the likelihood of bacterial survival and thus potential cross contamination of washed produce. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Factors limiting mallard brood survival in prairie pothole landscapes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krapu, Gary L.; Pietz, Pamela J.; Brandt, David A.; Cox, Robert R.

2000-01-01

In order to estimate mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) production from managed and unmanaged lands, waterfowl biologists need measurable predictors of brood survival. We evaluated effects of percent of seasonal basins holding water (WETSEAS), percent of upland landscape in perennial cover (PERNCOVER), rainfall (RAIN), daily minimum ambient temperature (TMIN), hatch date (HATCHDATE), brood age (BA; 0-7 or 8-30 days), age of brood females, and brood size on mallard brood survival in prairie pothole landscapes, and developed a predictive model using factors found to have significant effects. Sixteen of 56 radiomarked broods experienced total loss during 1,250 exposure days. Our final fitted model of brood survival contained only main effects of WETSEAS, HATCHDATE, and RAIN. Total brood loss during the first 30 days of exposure was 11.2 times more likely for broods hatched on areas with 59% WETSEAS. Total brood loss was 5.2 times more likely during rainy conditions than during dry periods, and the hazard of total brood loss increased by 5% for each 1-day delay in hatching between 17 May and 12 August. High survival of mallard broods in landscapes where most seasonal basins contain water underscores the importance of maintaining seasonal wetlands as a major component of wetland complexes managed for mallard production. Because early hatched broods have higher survival, we also suggest that waterfowl managers focus their efforts on enhancing nest success of early laid clutches, especially in wet years.

Nonparametric Bayesian inference for mean residual life functions in survival analysis.

PubMed

Poynor, Valerie; Kottas, Athanasios

2018-01-19

Modeling and inference for survival analysis problems typically revolves around different functions related to the survival distribution. Here, we focus on the mean residual life (MRL) function, which provides the expected remaining lifetime given that a subject has survived (i.e. is event-free) up to a particular time. This function is of direct interest in reliability, medical, and actuarial fields. In addition to its practical interpretation, the MRL function characterizes the survival distribution. We develop general Bayesian nonparametric inference for MRL functions built from a Dirichlet process mixture model for the associated survival distribution. The resulting model for the MRL function admits a representation as a mixture of the kernel MRL functions with time-dependent mixture weights. This model structure allows for a wide range of shapes for the MRL function. Particular emphasis is placed on the selection of the mixture kernel, taken to be a gamma distribution, to obtain desirable properties for the MRL function arising from the mixture model. The inference method is illustrated with a data set of two experimental groups and a data set involving right censoring. The supplementary material available at Biostatistics online provides further results on empirical performance of the model, using simulated data examples. © The Author 2018. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Effect of initial microbial density on inactivation of Giardia muris by ozone.

PubMed

Haas, Charles N; Kaymak, Baris

2003-07-01

Inactivation of microorganisms by disinfectants frequently shows non-linear behavior on a semilogarithmic plot of log survival ratio versus time. A number of models have been developed to depict these deviations from Chick's Law. Some of the models predict that the log survival ratio (at a particular disinfectant dose and contact time, even in absence of demand) would be a function of the initial concentration of microorganisms (N(0)), while other models do not predict such an effect. The effect of N(0) on the survival ratio has not been deliberately tested. This work examined the inactivation of Giardia muris by ozone in batch systems, deliberately varying the disinfectant dose and N(0). It was found that the models predicting a dependency of survival on N(0) gave a better description to the data than models that did not predict such a dependency. Hence there is an apparent decrease in disinfection efficiency of ozone against Giardia muris (at pH 8 and 15 degrees C) as the initial microorganism concentration decreases. This phenomena should be taken into account by both disinfection researchers and by process design engineers.

The Interplay Between Predation, Competition, and Nutrient Levels Influences the Survival of Escherichia coli in Aquatic Environments.

PubMed

Wanjugi, P; Fox, G A; Harwood, V J

2016-10-01

Nutrient levels, competition from autochthonous microorganisms, and protozoan predation may all influence survival of fecal microorganisms as they transition from the gastrointestinal tract to aquatic habitats. Although Escherichia coli is an important indicator of waterborne pathogens, the effects of environmental stressors on its survival in aquatic environments remain poorly understood. We manipulated organic nutrient, predation, and competition levels in outdoor microcosms containing natural river water, sediments, and microbial populations to determine their relative contribution to E. coli survival. The activities of predator (protozoa) and competitor (indigenous bacteria) populations were inhibited by adding cycloheximide or kanamycin. We developed a statistical model of E. coli density over time that fits with the data under all experimental conditions. Predation and competition had significant negative effects on E. coli survival, while higher nutrient levels increased survival. Among the main effects, predation accounted for the greatest variation (40 %) compared with nutrients (25 %) or competition (15 %). The highest nutrient level mitigated the effect of predation on E. coli survival. Thus, elevated organic nutrients may disproportionately enhance the survival of E. coli, and potentially that of other enteric bacteria, in aquatic habitats.

Influence of host tree condition on the performance of Tetropium fuscum (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae).

PubMed

Flaherty, Leah; Sweeney, Jon D; Pureswaran, Deepa; Quiring, Dan T

2011-10-01

Tetropium fuscum (F.) attacks weakened Norway spruce, Picea abies (L.) Karst., in its native Europe and may colonize healthy spruce in Nova Scotia, Canada. We used manipulative field experiments to evaluate: 1) the development of T. fuscum on apparently healthy red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) in Nova Scotia; 2) the influence of red spruce physiological condition (healthy, girdled or cut) on T. fuscum performance; and 3) the impact of natural enemies and competitors on T. fuscum performance when developing on trees of varying condition. Tetropium fuscum successfully developed on healthy red spruce. Survival was higher on healthy than on girdled or cut trees when larvae were exposed to natural enemies and competitors. The benefits of reduced competition and parasitism on healthy trees appeared to compensate for any reductions in nutritional quality, increase in host resistance, or both. In contrast, when T. fuscum were protected from natural enemies, apparent survival was highest on girdled trees. Tetropium fuscum development took longer on healthy than on cut or girdled trees, and emerged adults were largest on healthy trees. The disparities in adult sizes among the three treatments may mean that healthy trees are more nutritious. Alternatively, the differences may indicate that a greater amount of time was spent feeding in healthy than in girdled or cut trees. Tree condition appears to have a direct impact on the success of T. fuscum, influencing survival, development time, and adult size, and may mediate the impact of natural enemies and competitors, further affecting T. fuscum performance.

Survival time of dogs with splenic hemangiosarcoma treated by splenectomy with or without adjuvant chemotherapy: 208 cases (2001-2012).

PubMed

Wendelburg, Kristin M; Price, Lori Lyn; Burgess, Kristine E; Lyons, Jeremiah A; Lew, Felicia H; Berg, John

2015-08-15

To determine survival time for dogs with splenic hemangiosarcoma treated with splenectomy alone, identify potential prognostic factors, and evaluate the efficacy of adjuvant chemotherapy. Retrospective case series. 208 dogs. Medical records were reviewed, long-term follow-up information was obtained, and survival data were analyzed statistically. 154 dogs were treated with surgery alone, and 54 were treated with surgery and chemotherapy. Twenty-eight dogs received conventional chemotherapy, 13 received cyclophosphamide-based metronomic chemotherapy, and 13 received both conventional and metronomic chemotherapy. Median survival time of dogs treated with splenectomy alone was 1.6 months. Clinical stage was the only prognostic factor significantly associated with survival time. When the entire follow-up period was considered, there was no significant difference in survival time between dogs treated with surgery alone and dogs treated with surgery and chemotherapy. However, during the first 4 months of follow-up, after adjusting for the effects of clinical stage, survival time was significantly prolonged among dogs receiving any type of chemotherapy (hazard ratio, 0.6) and among dogs receiving both conventional and metronomic chemotherapy (hazard ratio, 0.4). Clinical stage was strongly associated with prognosis for dogs with splenic hemangiosarcoma. Chemotherapy was effective in prolonging survival time during the early portion of the follow-up period. Combinations of doxorubicin-based conventional protocols and cyclophosphamide-based metronomic protocols appeared to be more effective than either type of chemotherapy alone, but prolongations in survival time resulting from current protocols were modest.

How Diverse Detrital Environments Influence Nutrient Stoichiometry between Males and Females of the Co-Occurring Container Mosquitoes Aedes albopictus, Ae. aegypti, and Culex quinquefasciatus

PubMed Central

Yee, Donald A.; Kaufman, Michael G.; Ezeakacha, Nnaemeka F.

2015-01-01

Allocation patterns of carbon and nitrogen in animals are influenced by food quality and quantity, as well as by inherent metabolic and physiological constraints within organisms. Whole body stoichiometry also may vary between the sexes who differ in development rates and reproductive allocation patterns. In aquatic containers, such as tree holes and tires, detrital inputs, which vary in amounts of carbon and nitrogen, form the basis of the mosquito-dominated food web. Differences in development times and mass between male and female mosquitoes may be the result of different reproductive constraints, which could also influence patterns of nutrient allocation. We examined development time, survival, and adult mass for males and females of three co-occurring species, Aedes albopictus, Ae. aegypti, and Culex quinquefasciatus, across environments with different ratios of animal and leaf detritus. We quantified the contribution of detritus to biomass using stable isotope analysis and measured tissue carbon and nitrogen concentrations among species and between the sexes. Development times were shorter and adults were heavier for Aedes in animal versus leaf-only environments, whereas Culex development times were invariant across detritus types. Aedes displayed similar survival across detritus types whereas C. quinquefasciatus showed decreased survival with increasing leaf detritus. All species had lower values of 15N and 13C in leaf-only detritus compared to animal, however, Aedes generally had lower tissue nitrogen compared to C. quinquefasciatus. There were no differences in the C:N ratio between male and female Aedes, however, Aedes were different than C. quinquefasciatus adults, with male C. quinquefasciatus significantly higher than females. Culex quinquefasciatus was homeostatic across detrital environments. These results allow us to hypothesize an underlying stoichiometric explanation for the variation in performance of different container species under similar detrital environments, and if supported may assist in explaining the production of vector populations in nature. PMID:26244643

How Diverse Detrital Environments Influence Nutrient Stoichiometry between Males and Females of the Co-Occurring Container Mosquitoes Aedes albopictus, Ae. aegypti, and Culex quinquefasciatus.

PubMed

Yee, Donald A; Kaufman, Michael G; Ezeakacha, Nnaemeka F

2015-01-01

Allocation patterns of carbon and nitrogen in animals are influenced by food quality and quantity, as well as by inherent metabolic and physiological constraints within organisms. Whole body stoichiometry also may vary between the sexes who differ in development rates and reproductive allocation patterns. In aquatic containers, such as tree holes and tires, detrital inputs, which vary in amounts of carbon and nitrogen, form the basis of the mosquito-dominated food web. Differences in development times and mass between male and female mosquitoes may be the result of different reproductive constraints, which could also influence patterns of nutrient allocation. We examined development time, survival, and adult mass for males and females of three co-occurring species, Aedes albopictus, Ae. aegypti, and Culex quinquefasciatus, across environments with different ratios of animal and leaf detritus. We quantified the contribution of detritus to biomass using stable isotope analysis and measured tissue carbon and nitrogen concentrations among species and between the sexes. Development times were shorter and adults were heavier for Aedes in animal versus leaf-only environments, whereas Culex development times were invariant across detritus types. Aedes displayed similar survival across detritus types whereas C. quinquefasciatus showed decreased survival with increasing leaf detritus. All species had lower values of 15N and 13C in leaf-only detritus compared to animal, however, Aedes generally had lower tissue nitrogen compared to C. quinquefasciatus. There were no differences in the C:N ratio between male and female Aedes, however, Aedes were different than C. quinquefasciatus adults, with male C. quinquefasciatus significantly higher than females. Culex quinquefasciatus was homeostatic across detrital environments. These results allow us to hypothesize an underlying stoichiometric explanation for the variation in performance of different container species under similar detrital environments, and if supported may assist in explaining the production of vector populations in nature.

Time to death analysis of road traffic accidents in relation to delta V, drunk driving, and restraint systems.

PubMed

Ju, Yonghan; Sohn, So Young

2014-01-01

The main goal of this research is to identify variables related to the expected time to death due to road traffic accidents (RTAs). Such research is expected to be useful in improving safety laws and regulations and developing new safety systems. The resulting information is crucial not only for reducing accident fatalities but for assessing related insurance policies. In this article, we analyze factors that are potentially associated with variation in the expected survival time after a road traffic accident using Weibull regression. In particular, we consider the association with alcohol involvement, delta V, and restraint systems. Our empirical results, obtained based on the NASS-CDS, indicate that the expected survival time for non-alcohol-impaired drivers is 3.23 times longer at a delta V of 50 km/h than that for alcohol-impaired drivers under the same conditions. In addition, it was observed that, even when occupants were alcohol-impaired, if they were protected by both air bags and seat belts, their expected survival time after an RTA increased 2.59-fold compared to alcohol-impaired drivers who used only seat belts. Our findings may be useful in improving road traffic safety and insurance policies by offering insights into the factors that reduce fatalities.

Search Strategy to Identify Dental Survival Analysis Articles Indexed in MEDLINE.

PubMed

Layton, Danielle M; Clarke, Michael

2016-01-01

Articles reporting survival outcomes (time-to-event outcomes) in patients over time are challenging to identify in the literature. Research shows the words authors use to describe their dental survival analyses vary, and that allocation of medical subject headings by MEDLINE indexers is inconsistent. Together, this undermines accurate article identification. The present study aims to develop and validate a search strategy to identify dental survival analyses indexed in MEDLINE (Ovid). A gold standard cohort of articles was identified to derive the search terms, and an independent gold standard cohort of articles was identified to test and validate the proposed search strategies. The first cohort included all 6,955 articles published in the 50 dental journals with the highest impact factors in 2008, of which 95 articles were dental survival articles. The second cohort included all 6,514 articles published in the 50 dental journals with the highest impact factors for 2012, of which 148 were dental survival articles. Each cohort was identified by a systematic hand search. Performance parameters of sensitivity, precision, and number needed to read (NNR) for the search strategies were calculated. Sensitive, precise, and optimized search strategies were developed and validated. The performances of the search strategy maximizing sensitivity were 92% sensitivity, 14% precision, and 7.11 NNR; the performances of the strategy maximizing precision were 93% precision, 10% sensitivity, and 1.07 NNR; and the performances of the strategy optimizing the balance between sensitivity and precision were 83% sensitivity, 24% precision, and 4.13 NNR. The methods used to identify search terms were objective, not subjective. The search strategies were validated in an independent group of articles that included different journals and different publication years. Across the three search strategies, dental survival articles can be identified with sensitivity up to 92%, precision up to 93%, and NNR of less than two articles to identify relevant records. This research has highlighted the impact that variation in reporting and indexing has on article identification and has improved researchers' ability to identify dental survival articles.

Timely disclosure of progress in long-term cancer survival: the boomerang method substantially improved estimates in a comparative study.

PubMed

Brenner, Hermann; Jansen, Lina

2016-02-01

Monitoring cancer survival is a key task of cancer registries, but timely disclosure of progress in long-term survival remains a challenge. We introduce and evaluate a novel method, denoted "boomerang method," for deriving more up-to-date estimates of long-term survival. We applied three established methods (cohort, complete, and period analysis) and the boomerang method to derive up-to-date 10-year relative survival of patients diagnosed with common solid cancers and hematological malignancies in the United States. Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results 9 database, we compared the most up-to-date age-specific estimates that might have been obtained with the database including patients diagnosed up to 2001 with 10-year survival later observed for patients diagnosed in 1997-2001. For cancers with little or no increase in survival over time, the various estimates of 10-year relative survival potentially available by the end of 2001 were generally rather similar. For malignancies with strongly increasing survival over time, including breast and prostate cancer and all hematological malignancies, the boomerang method provided estimates that were closest to later observed 10-year relative survival in 23 of the 34 groups assessed. The boomerang method can substantially improve up-to-dateness of long-term cancer survival estimates in times of ongoing improvement in prognosis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Survival times for canine intranasal sarcomas treated with radiation therapy: 86 cases (1996-2011).

PubMed

Sones, Evan; Smith, Annette; Schleis, Stephanie; Brawner, William; Almond, Gregory; Taylor, Kathryn; Haney, Siobhan; Wypij, Jackie; Keyerleber, Michele; Arthur, Jennifer; Hamilton, Terrance; Lawrence, Jessica; Gieger, Tracy; Sellon, Rance; Wright, Zack

2013-01-01

Sarcomas comprise approximately one-third of canine intranasal tumors, however few veterinary studies have described survival times of dogs with histologic subtypes of sarcomas separately from other intranasal tumors. One objective of this study was to describe median survival times for dogs treated with radiation therapy for intranasal sarcomas. A second objective was to compare survival times for dogs treated with three radiation therapy protocols: daily-fractionated radiation therapy; Monday, Wednesday, and Friday fractionated radiation therapy; and palliative radiation therapy. Medical records were retrospectively reviewed for dogs that had been treated with radiation therapy for confirmed intranasal sarcoma. A total of 86 dogs met inclusion criteria. Overall median survival time for included dogs was 444 days. Median survival time for dogs with chondrosarcoma (n = 42) was 463 days, fibrosarcoma (n = 12) 379 days, osteosarcoma (n = 6) 624 days, and undifferentiated sarcoma (n = 22) 344 days. Dogs treated with daily-fractionated radiation therapy protocols; Monday, Wednesday and Friday fractionated radiation therapy protocols; and palliative radiation therapy protocols had median survival times of 641, 347, and 305 days, respectively. A significant difference in survival time was found for dogs receiving curative intent radiation therapy vs. palliative radiation therapy (P = 0.032). A significant difference in survival time was also found for dogs receiving daily-fractionated radiation therapy vs. Monday, Wednesday and Friday fractionated radiation therapy (P = 0.0134). Findings from this study support the use of curative intent radiation therapy for dogs with intranasal sarcoma. Future prospective, randomized trials are needed for confirmation of treatment benefits. © 2012 Veterinary Radiology & Ultrasound.

Application of accelerated failure time models for breast cancer patients' survival in Kurdistan Province of Iran.

PubMed

Karimi, Asrin; Delpisheh, Ali; Sayehmiri, Kourosh

2016-01-01

Breast cancer is the most common cancer and the second common cause of cancer-induced mortalities in Iranian women. There has been a rapid development in hazard models and survival analysis in the last decade. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic factors of overall survival (OS) in breast cancer patients using accelerated failure time models (AFT). This was a retrospective-analytic cohort study. About 313 women with a pathologically proven diagnosis of breast cancer who had been treated during a 7-year period (since January 2006 until March 2014) in Sanandaj City, Kurdistan Province of Iran were recruited. Performance among AFT was assessed using the goodness of fit methods. Discrimination among the exponential, Weibull, generalized gamma, log-logistic, and log-normal distributions was done using Akaik information criteria and maximum likelihood. The 5 years OS was 75% (95% CI = 74.57-75.43). The main results in terms of survival were found for the different categories of the clinical stage covariate, tumor metastasis, and relapse of cancer. Survival time in breast cancer patients without tumor metastasis and relapse were 4, 2-fold longer than other patients with metastasis and relapse, respectively. One of the most important undermining prognostic factors in breast cancer is metastasis; hence, knowledge of the mechanisms of metastasis is necessary to prevent it so occurrence and treatment of metastatic breast cancer and ultimately extend the lifetime of patients.

Solitary chemoreceptor cell survival is independent of intact trigeminal innervation.

PubMed

Gulbransen, Brian; Silver, Wayne; Finger, Thomas E

2008-05-01

Nasal solitary chemoreceptor cells (SCCs) are a population of specialized chemosensory epithelial cells presumed to broaden trigeminal chemoreceptivity in mammals (Finger et al. [2003] Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 100:8981-8986). SCCs are innervated by peptidergic trigeminal nerve fibers (Finger et al. [2003]) but it is currently unknown if intact innervation is necessary for SCC development or survival. We tested the dependence of SCCs on innervation by eliminating trigeminal nerve fibers during development with neurogenin-1 knockout mice, during early postnatal development with capsaicin desensitization, and during adulthood with trigeminal lesioning. Our results demonstrate that elimination of innervation at any of these times does not result in decreased SCC numbers. In conclusion, neither SCC development nor mature cell maintenance is dependent on intact trigeminal innervation. (c) 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Benefits of marriage on relative and conditional relative cancer survival differ between males and females in the USA.

PubMed

Merrill, Ray M; Johnson, Erin

2017-10-01

The purpose of the paper is to assess the influence of marital status on conditional relative survival of cancer according to sex. Analyses involved 779,978 males and 1,032,868 females diagnosed with 1 of 13 cancer types between 2000 and 2008, and followed through 2013. Data are from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program. Regression models were adjusted for age, sex, race, and tumor stage. Five-year relative survival conditional on years already survived is higher among married patients with less lethal cancers (oral cavity and pharynx, colon and rectum, breast, urinary bladder, kidney and renal pelvis, melanoma of the skin, thyroid, lymphoma). For more lethal cancers, married patients have similar (liver, lung and bronchus, pancreas, leukemia) or poorer (brain and other nervous system) cancer survival. Separated/divorced or widowed patients have the lowest conditional relative survival rates. For most cancers, 5-year cancer relative survival rates conditional on time already survived through 5 years approach 70 to 90% of that for the general population. The beneficial effect of marriage on survival decreases with years already survived. Superior conditional relative survival rates in females decrease with time already survived and are less pronounced in married patients. Five-year relative survival rates improve with time already survived. The benefits of marriage on conditional relative survival are greater for less lethal cancers. Greater 5-year conditional relative survival rates in females narrow with time already survived and are less pronounced in married patients. Conditional relative survival rates of cancer can lead to more informed decisions and understanding regarding treatment and prognosis.

Common spaceborne multicomputer operating system and development environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Craymer, L. G.; Lewis, B. F.; Hayes, P. J.; Jones, R. L.

1994-01-01

A preliminary technical specification for a multicomputer operating system is developed. The operating system is targeted for spaceborne flight missions and provides a broad range of real-time functionality, dynamic remote code-patching capability, and system fault tolerance and long-term survivability features. Dataflow concepts are used for representing application algorithms. Functional features are included to ensure real-time predictability for a class of algorithms which require data-driven execution on an iterative steady state basis. The development environment supports the development of algorithm code, design of control parameters, performance analysis, simulation of real-time dataflow applications, and compiling and downloading of the resulting application.

Changes in case-mix and outcomes of critically ill patients in an Australian tertiary intensive care unit.

PubMed

Williams, T A; Ho, K M; Dobb, G J; Finn, J C; Knuiman, M W; Webb, S A R

2010-07-01

Critical care service is expensive and the demand for such service is increasing in many developed countries. This study aimed to assess the changes in characteristics of critically ill patients and their effect on long-term outcome. This cohort study utilised linked data between the intensive care unit database and state-wide morbidity and mortality databases. Logistic and Cox regression was used to examine hospital survival and five-year survival of 22,298 intensive care unit patients, respectively. There was a significant increase in age, severity of illness and Charlson Comorbidity Index of the patients over a 16-year study period. Although hospital mortality and median length of intensive care unit and hospital stay remained unchanged, one- and five-year survival had significantly improved with time, after adjusting for age, gender; severity of illness, organ failure, comorbidity, 'new' cancer and diagnostic group. Stratified analyses showed that the improvement in five-year survival was particularly strong among patients admitted after cardiac surgery (P = 0.001). In conclusion, although critical care service is increasingly being provided to patients with a higher severity of acute and chronic illnesses, long-term survival outcome has improved with time suggesting that critical care service may still be cost-effectiveness despite the changes in case-mix.

Survival in 76 cats with epilepsy of unknown cause: a retrospective study

PubMed Central

Szelecsenyi, A.; Giger, U.; Golini, L.; Mothersill, I.; Torgerson, P. R.; Steffen, F.

2017-01-01

Survival of cats with epilepsy of unknown cause (EUC) has not been reported. Seizure semiology and its relationship to treatment outcome and survival was studied in a population of 76 cats. A questionnaire for seizure semiology was developed based upon experimental data. Seizure semiology was characterized by owner interviews at least one year after discharge. Seizures were classified as: (1) primary generalized and (2) focal without and (3) with secondary generalization. Median age at seizure onset was four (range 0.3 to 18) years. One third of cats with EUC presented with primary generalized seizures and 78% of those with initially focal seizures progressed to secondary generalized seizures. Clinical signs of generalized seizures included sudden onset of loss of consciousness and tonic-clonic seizures, while cats with focal seizures had unilateral signs. Antiepileptic drug (AED) therapy was initiated in 62 cats. Complete remission rate was 42% and median survival time was 3.2 (range 1 to 11) years with or without AED, and 91% were still alive at the time of interview. Neither semiology nor seizure type predicted survival, response to treatment, and outcome in cats with EUC. A seizure-free status of >12 months was observed in 79% of cats without AED. PMID:29097567

Toward computer simulation of high-LET in vitro survival curves.

PubMed

Heuskin, A-C; Michiels, C; Lucas, S

2013-09-21

We developed a Monte Carlo based computer program called MCSC (Monte Carlo Survival Curve) able to predict the survival fraction of cells irradiated in vitro with a broad beam of high linear energy transfer particles. Three types of cell responses are studied: the usual high dose response, the bystander effect and the low-dose hypersensitivity (HRS). The program models the broad beam irradiation and double strand break distribution following Poisson statistics. The progression of cells through the cell cycle is taken into account while the repair takes place. Input parameters are experimentally determined for A549 lung carcinoma cells irradiated with 10 and 20 keV µm(-1) protons, 115 keV µm(-1) alpha particles and for EAhy926 endothelial cells exposed to 115 keV µm(-1) alpha particles. Results of simulations are presented and compared with experimental survival curves obtained for A549 and EAhy296 cells. Results are in good agreement with experimental data for both cell lines and all irradiation protocols. The benefits of MCSC are several: the gain of time that would have been spent performing time-consuming clonogenic assays, the capacity to estimate survival fraction of cell lines not forming colonies and possibly the evaluation of radiosensitivity parameters of given individuals.

Composite Partial Likelihood Estimation Under Length-Biased Sampling, With Application to a Prevalent Cohort Study of Dementia

PubMed Central

Huang, Chiung-Yu; Qin, Jing

2013-01-01

The Canadian Study of Health and Aging (CSHA) employed a prevalent cohort design to study survival after onset of dementia, where patients with dementia were sampled and the onset time of dementia was determined retrospectively. The prevalent cohort sampling scheme favors individuals who survive longer. Thus, the observed survival times are subject to length bias. In recent years, there has been a rising interest in developing estimation procedures for prevalent cohort survival data that not only account for length bias but also actually exploit the incidence distribution of the disease to improve efficiency. This article considers semiparametric estimation of the Cox model for the time from dementia onset to death under a stationarity assumption with respect to the disease incidence. Under the stationarity condition, the semiparametric maximum likelihood estimation is expected to be fully efficient yet difficult to perform for statistical practitioners, as the likelihood depends on the baseline hazard function in a complicated way. Moreover, the asymptotic properties of the semiparametric maximum likelihood estimator are not well-studied. Motivated by the composite likelihood method (Besag 1974), we develop a composite partial likelihood method that retains the simplicity of the popular partial likelihood estimator and can be easily performed using standard statistical software. When applied to the CSHA data, the proposed method estimates a significant difference in survival between the vascular dementia group and the possible Alzheimer’s disease group, while the partial likelihood method for left-truncated and right-censored data yields a greater standard error and a 95% confidence interval covering 0, thus highlighting the practical value of employing a more efficient methodology. To check the assumption of stable disease for the CSHA data, we also present new graphical and numerical tests in the article. The R code used to obtain the maximum composite partial likelihood estimator for the CSHA data is available in the online Supplementary Material, posted on the journal web site. PMID:24000265

Does framing of cancer survival affect perceived value of care? A willingness-to-pay survey of US residents.

PubMed

Lin, Pei-Jung; Concannon, Thomas W; Greenberg, Dan; Cohen, Joshua T; Rossi, Gregory; Hille, Jeffrey; Auerbach, Hannah R; Fang, Chi-Hui; Nadler, Eric S; Neumann, Peter J

2013-08-01

To investigate the relationship between the framing of survival gains and the perceived value of cancer care. Through a population-based survey of 2040 US adults, respondents were randomized to one of the two sets of hypothetical scenarios, each of which described the survival benefit for a new treatment as either an increase in median survival time (median survival), or an increase in the probability of survival for a given length of time (landmark survival). Each respondent was presented with two randomly selected scenarios with different prognosis and survival improvements, and asked about their willingness to pay (WTP) for the new treatments. Predicted WTP increased with survival benefits and respondents' income, regardless of how survival benefits were described. Framing therapeutic benefits as improvements in landmark rather than median time survival increased the proportion of the population willing to pay for that gain by 11-35%, and the mean WTP amount by 42-72% in the scenarios we compared. How survival benefits are described may influence the value people place on cancer care.

Transient, heat-induced thermal resistance in the small intestine of mouse

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hume, S.P.; Marigold, J.C.L.

Heat-induced thermal resistance has been investigated in mouse jejunum by assaying crypt survival 24 h after treatment. Hyperthermia was achieved by immersing an exteriorized loop of intestine in a bath of Krebs-Ringer solution. Two approaches have been used. In the first, thermal survival curves were obtained following single hyperthermal treatments at temperatures in the range 42 to 44/sup 0/C. Transient thermal resistance, inducted by a plateau in the crypt survival curve, developed during heating at temperatures around 42.5/sup 0/C after 60 to 80 min. In the second series of experiments, a priming heat treatment (40.0, 41.0, 41.5, or 42.0/sup 0/Cmore » for 60 min) was followed at varying intervals by a test treatment at 43.0/sup 0/C. A transient resistance to the second treatment was induced, the extent and time of development being dependent upon the priming treatment. Crypt survival curves for thermally resistant intestine showed an increase in thermal D/sub 0/ and a decrease in n compared with curves from previously unheated intestine.« less

Differences in patterns of survival in metastatic adenoid cystic carcinoma of the head and neck.

PubMed

van Weert, Stijn; Reinhard, Rinze; Bloemena, Elisabeth; Buter, Jan; Witte, Birgit I; Vergeer, Marije R; Leemans, C René

2017-03-01

We examined the assumption in conventional teaching about metastatic adenoid cystic carcinoma (ACC) being an indolent type of disease. A single center analysis of 105 cases of ACC was performed. Radiographs were reviewed and tumor response to chemotherapy was measured. Distant disease-free survival (DDFS) and time to death since distant metastases diagnosis were analyzed. Forty-two percent of the patients were diagnosed with distant metastases. DDFS showed significant negative associations with advanced T classification, N+ classification, solid type tumor, and positive surgical margins. Distant metastases (91%) developed in the first 5 years after presentation. Median distant metastatic survival was 13.8 months. The most frequent organ sited was the lung. Solid type ACC showed a preponderance for multiorgan metastases (17/28; 61%). Distant metastases seemed not to occur in case of clear surgical margins. Solid type ACC had a significant poorer survival after development of distant metastases. Metastatic ACC is not always an indolent disease. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Head Neck 39: 456-463, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Effects of sediment cover on survival and development of white sturgeon embryos

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kock, T.J.; Congleton, J.L.; Anders, P.J.

2006-01-01

A simple, inexpensive apparatus (embryo incubation unit [EIU]) was developed and used to assess the relationship between sediment cover (Kootenai River sediments, 97% by weight in the 0.83-mm- to 1.0-mm-diameter range) and survival of white sturgeon Acipenser transmontanus embryos in the laboratory. An apparatus-testing trial assessed the effects of two sediment depths (5 and 20 mm), three EIU ventilation hole sizes (4.8, 6.8, and 9.5 mm) providing three levels of intrasediment flow, and EIU location (upstream or downstream in laboratory troughs) on embryo survival at two above-substrate flow velocities (0.05 and 0.15 m/s). A second trial assessed the effects of sediment cover duration (5-mm sediment cover for 4, 7, 9, 11, or 14 d, with a ventilation hole size of 9.5 mm and a flow velocity of 0.17 m/s) on mean embryo survival and larval length and weight. In the apparatus-testing trial, embryo survival was reduced (P < 0.0001) to 0-5% under sediment covers of either 5 or 20 mm in both the higher-flow and lower-flow troughs; survival in control EIUs without sediments exceeded 80%. Survival was not significantly affected by ventilation hole size but was weakly affected by EIU location. In the second trial, embryo survival was negatively correlated (P = 0.001) with increasing duration of sediment cover and was significantly higher for embryos covered for 4 d (50% survival) or 7 d (30% survival) than for those covered for 9, 11, or 14 d (15-20% survival). Sediment cover also delayed hatch timing (P < 0.0001) and decreased mean larval length (P < 0.0001). Our results suggest that sediment cover may be an important early life stage mortality factor in rivers where white sturgeon spawn over fine-sediment substrates. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2006.

Quantifying Temperature Effects on Fall Chinook Salmon

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jager, Yetta

2011-11-01

The motivation for this study was to recommend relationships for use in a model of San Joaquin fall Chinook salmon. This report reviews literature pertaining to relationships between water temperature and fall Chinook salmon. The report is organized into three sections that deal with temperature effects on development and timing of freshwater life stages, temperature effects on incubation survival for eggs and alevin, and temperature effects on juvenile survival. Recommendations are made for modeling temperature influences for all three life stages.

Management of metastatic renal cell carcinoma in the era of targeted therapies.

PubMed

Webber, K; Cooper, A; Kleiven, H; Yip, D; Goldstein, D

2011-08-01

Metastatic renal cell cancer is associated with poor prognosis and survival and is resistant to conventional chemotherapy. Therapeutic targeting of molecular pathways for tumour angiogenesis and other specific activation mechanisms offers improved tumour response and prolonged survival. To conduct a retrospective audit of metastatic renal cell carcinoma patients treated with targeted therapies. Data were extracted from clinical records of patients undergoing targeted treatment between 2005 and 2009 at two hospital sites. Data collected included pathology, systemic therapy class, toxicity and survival. Univariate and multivariate survival analyses were performed. Sixty-one patients were treated with 102 lines of therapy with a median overall survival (OS) of 23 months, median time to failure of first-line treatment (TTF1) of 10 months and median time to failure of second-line treatment (TTF2) of 5.2 months. Time from first diagnosis to treatment >12 months was significantly associated with improved OS, longer TTF1, TTF2 and response to first-line anti-vascular endothelial growth factor receptor tyrosine kinase inhibitors (anti-VEGF TKI) therapy. Variables associated with tumour biology, natural history and the systemic inflammatory response were associated with improved OS and TTF1. Development of hypertension was predictive of anti-VEGF TKI outcome. Toxicities were as expected for each drug class.   Survival and toxicity outcomes from two Australian sites are comparable to published data. The adverse event profile differs to conventional chemotherapy. Clinicians caring for patients with metastatic renal cancer will need to become familiar with these toxicities and their management as these agents enter widespread use. © 2011 The Authors. Internal Medicine Journal © 2011 Royal Australasian College of Physicians.

The Influence of Pituitary Size on Outcome After Transsphenoidal Hypophysectomy in a Large Cohort of Dogs with Pituitary-Dependent Hypercortisolism.

PubMed

van Rijn, S J; Galac, S; Tryfonidou, M A; Hesselink, J W; Penning, L C; Kooistra, H S; Meij, B P

2016-07-01

Transsphenoidal hypophysectomy is one of the treatment strategies in the comprehensive management of dogs with pituitary-dependent hypercortisolism (PDH). To describe the influence of pituitary size at time of pituitary gland surgery on long-term outcome. Three-hundred-and-six dogs with PDH. Survival and disease-free fractions were analyzed and related to pituitary size; dogs with and without recurrence were compared. Four weeks after surgery, 91% of dogs were alive and remission was confirmed in 92% of these dogs. The median survival time was 781 days, median disease-free interval was 951 days. Over time, 27% of dogs developed recurrence of hypercortisolism after a median period of 555 days. Dogs with recurrence had significantly higher pituitary height/brain area (P/B) ratio and pre-operative basal urinary corticoid-to-creatinine ratio (UCCR) than dogs without recurrence. Survival time and disease-free interval of dogs with enlarged pituitary glands was significantly shorter than that of dogs with a non-enlarged pituitary gland. Pituitary size at the time of surgery significantly increased over the 20-year period. Although larger tumors have a less favorable prognosis, outcome in larger tumors improved over time. Transsphenoidal hypophysectomy is an effective treatment for PDH in dogs, with an acceptable long-term outcome. Survival time and disease-free fractions are correlated negatively with pituitary gland size, making the P/B ratio an important pre-operative prognosticator. However, with increasing experience, and for large tumors, pituitary gland surgery remains an option to control the pituitary mass and hypercortisolism. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Veterinary Internal Medicine published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of the American College of Veterinary Internal Medicine.

Practical application of cure mixture model for long-term censored survivor data from a withdrawal clinical trial of patients with major depressive disorder.

PubMed

Arano, Ichiro; Sugimoto, Tomoyuki; Hamasaki, Toshimitsu; Ohno, Yuko

2010-04-23

Survival analysis methods such as the Kaplan-Meier method, log-rank test, and Cox proportional hazards regression (Cox regression) are commonly used to analyze data from randomized withdrawal studies in patients with major depressive disorder. However, unfortunately, such common methods may be inappropriate when a long-term censored relapse-free time appears in data as the methods assume that if complete follow-up were possible for all individuals, each would eventually experience the event of interest. In this paper, to analyse data including such a long-term censored relapse-free time, we discuss a semi-parametric cure regression (Cox cure regression), which combines a logistic formulation for the probability of occurrence of an event with a Cox proportional hazards specification for the time of occurrence of the event. In specifying the treatment's effect on disease-free survival, we consider the fraction of long-term survivors and the risks associated with a relapse of the disease. In addition, we develop a tree-based method for the time to event data to identify groups of patients with differing prognoses (cure survival CART). Although analysis methods typically adapt the log-rank statistic for recursive partitioning procedures, the method applied here used a likelihood ratio (LR) test statistic from a fitting of cure survival regression assuming exponential and Weibull distributions for the latency time of relapse. The method is illustrated using data from a sertraline randomized withdrawal study in patients with major depressive disorder. We concluded that Cox cure regression reveals facts on who may be cured, and how the treatment and other factors effect on the cured incidence and on the relapse time of uncured patients, and that cure survival CART output provides easily understandable and interpretable information, useful both in identifying groups of patients with differing prognoses and in utilizing Cox cure regression models leading to meaningful interpretations.

Sepsis and Shock Response Team: Impact of a Multidisciplinary Approach to Implementing Surviving Sepsis Campaign Guidelines and Surviving the Process.

PubMed

Grek, Ami; Booth, Sandra; Festic, Emir; Maniaci, Michael; Shirazi, Ehsan; Thompson, Kristine; Starbuck, Angela; Mcree, Chad; Naessens, James M; Moreno Franco, Pablo

The Surviving Sepsis Campaign guidelines are designed to decrease mortality through consistent application of a 7-element bundle. This study evaluated the impact of improvement in bundle adherence using a time-series analysis of compliance with the bundle elements before and after interventions intended to improve the process, while also looking at hospital mortality. This article describes interventions used to improve bundle compliance and hospital mortality in patients admitted through the emergency department with sepsis, severe sepsis, or septic shock. Quality improvement methodology was used to develop high-impact interventions that led to dramatically improved adherence to the Surviving Sepsis Campaign guidelines bundle. Improved performance was associated with a significant decrease in the in-hospital mortality of severe sepsis patients presenting to the emergency department.

Comparative Study of Survival following Videothoracoscopic Lobectomy Procedures for Lung Cancer: Single- versus Multiple-port Approaches.

PubMed

Borro, José M; Regueiro, Francisco; Pértega, Sonia; Constenla, Manuel; Pita, Salvador

2017-04-01

Video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery has become the technique of choice in the early stages of lung cancer in many centers although there is no evidence that all of the surgical approaches achieve the same long-term survival. We carried out a retrospective review of 276 VATS lobectomies performed in our department, analyzing age, sex, comorbidities, current smoker, FEV1 and FCV, surgical approach, TNM and pathological stage, histologic type, neoadjuvant or coadjuvant chemotherapy, relapse and metastasis time, with the main aim of evaluating the survival rate and disease-free time, especially with regard to the two/three versus single port approach. The one/four year global survival rate was 88.1 and 67.6% respectively. Bivariate analysis found that the variables associated with survival are comorbidity, histological type, stage, surgical approach and need for chemotherapy. When we independently analyzed the surgical approach, we found a lower survival rate in the single-port group vs. the two/three-port group (VATS). Stratifying by tumoral stage (stage I) and by tumor size (T2) survival was significantly lower for patients with single-port group in comparison to VATS approach. In the multivariate analysis, single-port group is associated with a higher risk of death (HR=1.78). In analyzing disease-free survival, differences were found in both cases in favor of two/three port VATS: p=.093 for local relapses and p=.091 for the development of metastasis. These results challenge the use of the single port technique in malignant lung pathologies, suggesting the need for clinical trials in order to identify the role this technique may have in lung cancer surgery. Copyright © 2016 SEPAR. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Nursing diagnoses in children with congenital heart disease: a survival analysis.

PubMed

Martins da Silva, Viviane; Lopes, Marcos Venícios de Oliveira; Leite de Araujo, Thelma

2007-01-01

To analyze the relationship between nursing diagnoses and survival rates in children with congenital heart disease. A total of 270 observations were carried out in 45 children with congenital heart disease who were followed for 15 days. Differences in mean survival times were identified in children not more than 4 months of age with respect to the following diagnoses: impaired gas exchange, ineffective breathing pattern, activity intolerance, delayed growth and development, and decreased cardiac output. The main diagnoses are identified early in the hospitalization period and are conditions resulting from hemodynamic alterations and prescribed medical treatment. Congenital heart disease provokes serious hemodynamic alterations that generate human responses, which should be treated proactively.

Measuring survival time: a probability-based approach useful in healthcare decision-making.

PubMed

2011-01-01

In some clinical situations, the choice between treatment options takes into account their impact on patient survival time. Due to practical constraints (such as loss to follow-up), survival time is usually estimated using a probability calculation based on data obtained in clinical studies or trials. The two techniques most commonly used to estimate survival times are the Kaplan-Meier method and the actuarial method. Despite their limitations, they provide useful information when choosing between treatment options.

The lived experience of surviving breast cancer.

PubMed

Pelusi, J

1997-09-01

To explore women's perspectives of the experience of surviving breast cancer. Descriptive, phenomenologic. A community in the Southwestern United States. Eight women, ages 34-70 (mean = 54.6 years), who had completed breast cancer therapy. Average time since completion of therapy was 7.6 years (range = 2-15 years). Open-ended, audiotaped interviews were transcribed and analyzed using Colaizzi's method. Woman's description of the experience of surviving breast cancer. Nine theme categories were identified from the data: a future of uncertainty, abandonment, sanctuaries along the way, self-transcendence, finding resolution to the financial cost of cancer, mediating expectations of others, survivors' lifelines, circle of influences, and the journey. The themes were developed into an essential structure. The essential structure of the experience of surviving breast cancer is one of facing the unknown and experiencing many losses. At the same time, this journey evolves into one of growth and enlightenment, providing the woman with many unexpected and new opportunities. In searching for the meaning of the journey (which changes over time), one grows and finds comfort and challenge in the midst of uncertainty. The journey affects not only the women themselves but also those around them. Surviving breast cancer evokes many feelings and concerns for the women and those around them. By identifying, acknowledging, and addressing these feelings and concerns, women can find meaning in their journey, which provides comfort and self-growth while facing the unknown future. This journey continues and changes over time, as does the meaning of the journey. An awareness and description of current issues and feelings surrounding survivors of breast cancer can assist the multidisciplinary healthcare team in caring for and supporting women and their families and friends during this experience.

Conjunctival epithelial flap in continuous contact lens wear.

PubMed

Graham, Andrew D; Truong, Tan N; Lin, Meng C

2009-04-01

Composed of sheets of cells detached from the underlying conjunctiva, conjunctival epithelial flap (CEF) is a recently reported phenomenon associated with contact lens wear with potential consequences for ocular health. Although CEF is generally asymptomatic, it is not known to what extent it might increase the longer-term risk of discomfort, inflammatory response, or infection. In this study, we use survival analysis methods to obtain unbiased estimates of the probability of developing CEF, the mean survival time free of CEF, and the effects of age, gender, ethnicity, and contact lens type. Two hundred four subjects were recruited for a continuous wear (CW) study of silicone hydrogel (SiH) and gas permeable (GP) contact lenses. Subjects were examined by optometrists throughout contact lens adaptation and CW periods. Statistical methods included the Kaplan-Meier nonparametric estimator of the survival function and the Cox proportional hazards model for estimating the relative effects of covariates. Of the 204 subjects, 72 (35%) developed CEF. In 64% of cases, CEFs were observed bilaterally. The majority of cases (90.3%) presented with CEF in the superior conjunctiva. Mean survival time free of CEF was longer for GP lenses (94.3 days) than for SiH lenses (76.5 days), and the probability of developing CEF was significantly greater for SiH lenses (p = 0.002). Although there was some evidence that women and non-Asians remain free of CEF longer, the effects of age, gender, and ethnicity were not statistically significant. There was a significantly increased risk of CEF in subjects wearing SiH lenses, compared with GP lenses. Subjects wearing SiH lenses remained free of CEF for a shorter time on average. Further study is needed to determine whether the increased incidence of CEF in CW with SiH lenses poses an increased risk of adverse ocular response or infection.

Maintenance therapy with toceranib following doxorubicin-based chemotherapy for canine splenic hemangiosarcoma.

PubMed

Gardner, Heather L; London, Cheryl A; Portela, Roberta A; Nguyen, Sandra; Rosenberg, Mona P; Klein, Mary K; Clifford, Craig; Thamm, Douglas H; Vail, David M; Bergman, Phil; Crawford-Jakubiak, Martin; Henry, Carolyn; Locke, Jennifer; Garrett, Laura D

2015-06-11

Spenic hemangiosarcoma (HSA) in dogs treated with surgery alone is associated with short survival times, and the addition of doxorubicin (DOX) chemotherapy only modestly improves outcome. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of toceranib administration on progression free survival in dogs with stage I or II HSA following splenectomy and single agent DOX chemotherapy. We hypothesized that dogs with splenic HSA treated with adjuvant DOX followed by toceranib would have prolonged disease-free interval (DFI) and overall survival time (OS) when compared to historical dogs treated with DOX-based chemotherapy alone. Dogs with stage I or II splenic HSA were administered 5 cycles of single-agent DOX every 2 weeks beginning within 14 days of splenectomy. Dogs were restaged 2 weeks after completing DOX, and those without evidence of metastatic disease began toceranib therapy at 3.25 mg/kg every other day. Forty-three dogs were enrolled in this clinical trial. Seven dogs had evidence of metastatic disease either before or at re-staging, and an additional 3 dogs were found to have metastatic disease within 1 week of toceranib administration. Therefore 31 dogs went on to receive toceranib following completion of doxorubicin treatment. Twenty-five dogs that received toceranib developed metastatic disease. The median disease free interval for all dogs enrolled in this study (n = 43) was 138 days, and the median disease free interval for those dogs that went on to receive toceranib (n = 31) was 161 days. The median survival time for all dogs enrolled in this study was 169 days, and the median survival time for those dogs that went on to receive toceranib was 172 days. The use of toceranib following DOX chemotherapy does not improve either disease free interval or overall survival in dogs with stage I or II HSA.

Development of a ten-signature classifier using a support vector machine integrated approach to subdivide the M1 stage into M1a and M1b stages of nasopharyngeal carcinoma with synchronous metastases to better predict patients' survival.

PubMed

Jiang, Rou; You, Rui; Pei, Xiao-Qing; Zou, Xiong; Zhang, Meng-Xia; Wang, Tong-Min; Sun, Rui; Luo, Dong-Hua; Huang, Pei-Yu; Chen, Qiu-Yan; Hua, Yi-Jun; Tang, Lin-Quan; Guo, Ling; Mo, Hao-Yuan; Qian, Chao-Nan; Mai, Hai-Qiang; Hong, Ming-Huang; Cai, Hong-Min; Chen, Ming-Yuan

2016-01-19

The aim of this study was to develop a prognostic classifier and subdivided the M1 stage for nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients with synchronous metastases (mNPC). A retrospective cohort of 347 mNPC patients was recruited between January 2000 and December 2010. Thirty hematological markers and 11 clinical characteristics were collected, and the association of these factors with overall survival (OS) was evaluated. Advanced machine learning schemes of a support vector machine (SVM) were used to select a subset of highly informative factors and to construct a prognostic model (mNPC-SVM). The mNPC-SVM classifier identified ten informative variables, including three clinical indexes and seven hematological markers. The median survival time for low-risk patients (M1a) as identified by the mNPC-SVM classifier was 38.0 months, and survival time was dramatically reduced to 13.8 months for high-risk patients (M1b) (P < 0.001). Multivariate adjustment using prognostic factors revealed that the mNPC-SVM classifier remained a powerful predictor of OS (M1a vs. M1b, hazard ratio, 3.45; 95% CI, 2.59 to 4.60, P < 0.001). Moreover, combination treatment of systemic chemotherapy and loco-regional radiotherapy was associated with significantly better survival outcomes than chemotherapy alone (the 5-year OS, 47.0% vs. 10.0%, P < 0.001) in the M1a subgroup but not in the M1b subgroup (12.0% vs. 3.0%, P = 0.101). These findings were validated by a separate cohort. In conclusion, the newly developed mNPC-SVM classifier led to more precise risk definitions that offer a promising subdivision of the M1 stage and individualized selection for future therapeutic regimens in mNPC patients.

Survival time estimation using Injury Severity Score (ISS) in homicide cases.

PubMed

Cros, Jérôme; Alvarez, Jean-Claude; Sbidian, Emilie; Charlier, Philippe; de la Grandmaison, Geoffroy Lorin

2013-12-10

The aim of our study was to assess the value of ISS to estimate survival time in a retrospective study of all homicidal deaths in the Western suburbs of Paris between 1994 and 2008. Stab wounds were the most common cause of death. Survival time between assault and death, determined in 107 cases out of 511 homicide cases, ranged from 0 min to 25 days (mean 39 h). There was an overall significant association between the survival time and the ISS score. ISS and survival time were strongly associated with male victims and a clear trend was seen with women. Regarding the type of wounds, a trend was seen with gunshot wounds and blunt injuries, but not with stab wounds. There was no influence of blood toxicological results and resuscitation attempts. Overall, ISS was a good predictor of a survival under 30 min. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Challenges faced in long term ventricular assist device support.

PubMed

Ikegami, Hirohisa; Kurlansky, Paul; Takeda, Koji; Naka, Yoshifumi

2016-08-01

The development of ventricular assist device (VAD) has been one of the revolutionary advancements in end-stage heart failure management. Although the device has developed and improved significantly over the last few decades, we still face multiple challenges. This review will discuss quality of life, survival, and clinically encountered complications in patients with VAD support. The literature was extensively reviewed for studies describing the above topic area. We describe the impact of major challenges faced in VAD support and discuss their future and expectations. Expert commentary: The technological advancement of VADs has contributed to major improvement of overall survival, enhancement of quality of life and decrease of incidence of complications. It is expected that technologies will continue to evolve. At the same time, the indications for and timing of device implantation, and selection of device type are continuously important in clinical practice setting.

Feed Conversion, Survival and Development, and Composition of Four Insect Species on Diets Composed of Food By-Products.

PubMed

Oonincx, Dennis G A B; van Broekhoven, Sarah; van Huis, Arnold; van Loon, Joop J A

2015-01-01

A large part of the environmental impact of animal production systems is due to the production of feed. Insects are suggested to efficiently convert feed to body mass and might therefore form a more sustainable food and/or feed source. Four diets were composed from by-products of food manufacturing and formulated such as to vary in protein and fat content. These were offered to newly hatched Argentinean cockroaches, black soldier flies, yellow mealworms, and house crickets. The first two species are potentially interesting as a feed ingredient, while the latter two are considered edible for humans. Feed conversion efficiency, survival, development time, as well as chemical composition (nitrogen, phosphorus, and fatty acids), were determined. The Argentinean cockroaches and the black soldier flies converted feed more efficiently than yellow mealworms, and house crickets. The first two were also more efficient than conventional production animals. On three of the four diets yellow mealworms and house crickets had a feed conversion efficiency similar to pigs. Furthermore, on the most suitable diet, they converted their feed as efficiently as poultry, when corrected for edible portion. All four species had a higher nitrogen-efficiency than conventional production animals, when corrected for edible portion. Offering carrots to yellow mealworms increased dry matter- and nitrogen-efficiency and decreased development time. Diet affected survival in all species but black soldier flies, and development time was strongly influenced in all four species. The chemical composition of Argentinean cockroaches was highly variable between diets, for black soldier flies it remained similar. The investigated species can be considered efficient production animals when suitable diets are provided. Hence, they could form a sustainable alternative to conventional production animals as a source of feed or food.

Feed Conversion, Survival and Development, and Composition of Four Insect Species on Diets Composed of Food By-Products

PubMed Central

Oonincx, Dennis G. A. B.; van Broekhoven, Sarah; van Huis, Arnold; van Loon, Joop J. A.

2015-01-01

A large part of the environmental impact of animal production systems is due to the production of feed. Insects are suggested to efficiently convert feed to body mass and might therefore form a more sustainable food and/or feed source. Four diets were composed from by-products of food manufacturing and formulated such as to vary in protein and fat content. These were offered to newly hatched Argentinean cockroaches, black soldier flies, yellow mealworms, and house crickets. The first two species are potentially interesting as a feed ingredient, while the latter two are considered edible for humans. Feed conversion efficiency, survival, development time, as well as chemical composition (nitrogen, phosphorus, and fatty acids), were determined. The Argentinean cockroaches and the black soldier flies converted feed more efficiently than yellow mealworms, and house crickets. The first two were also more efficient than conventional production animals. On three of the four diets yellow mealworms and house crickets had a feed conversion efficiency similar to pigs. Furthermore, on the most suitable diet, they converted their feed as efficiently as poultry, when corrected for edible portion. All four species had a higher nitrogen-efficiency than conventional production animals, when corrected for edible portion. Offering carrots to yellow mealworms increased dry matter- and nitrogen-efficiency and decreased development time. Diet affected survival in all species but black soldier flies, and development time was strongly influenced in all four species. The chemical composition of Argentinean cockroaches was highly variable between diets, for black soldier flies it remained similar. The investigated species can be considered efficient production animals when suitable diets are provided. Hence, they could form a sustainable alternative to conventional production animals as a source of feed or food. PMID:26699129

Cancer survival in patients with HIV/AIDS in the era of highly active antiretroviral therapy in Taiwan: a population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Lin, Chih-Shin; Lin, Charlene; Weng, Shih-Feng; Lin, Shih-Wei; Lin, Yung-Song

2013-10-01

HIV-related immunosuppression has been associated with the development of AIDS-defining malignancies. We examined the overall survival of HIV-infected patients who developed cancer. A retrospective cohort study. Using the Taiwan Longitudinal Health Insurance Database, we compared patients diagnosed with HIV (n=9918) between January 1, 2002, and December 31, 2007 with age-matched controls (n=99,180). Each patient was followed until the end of 2009 (least 2 years after the initial HIV diagnosis) to evaluate the incidence of malignancies. The risk of overall malignancies in the HIV-infected cohort was 1.88 times higher than the risk of a first malignancy in the age-matched non-HIV infected cohort (incidence rate ratio [IRR])=2.05, p<0.0001). The diagnosis of a malignancy was negatively correlated with survival in the HIV-infected cohort (p<0.0011), and HIV infection had a synergistic effect on the survival of patients with malignancies compared with the non-HIV infected cohort, all of who had been newly diagnosed with cancer (p<0.0001). However, the difference in the risk of developing nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC), a highly prevalent malignancy in Taiwan, between the two cohorts was not significant (IRR=0.22, 95% CI=0.03-1.65). The risk of cancer in HIV-infected patients in Taiwan has increased significantly in the era of highly active antiretroviral therapy. A history of HIV significantly affected the survival of the patients in our study cohort after they developed cancer. Evidence level: 2B. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A comparative study of machine learning methods for time-to-event survival data for radiomics risk modelling.

PubMed

Leger, Stefan; Zwanenburg, Alex; Pilz, Karoline; Lohaus, Fabian; Linge, Annett; Zöphel, Klaus; Kotzerke, Jörg; Schreiber, Andreas; Tinhofer, Inge; Budach, Volker; Sak, Ali; Stuschke, Martin; Balermpas, Panagiotis; Rödel, Claus; Ganswindt, Ute; Belka, Claus; Pigorsch, Steffi; Combs, Stephanie E; Mönnich, David; Zips, Daniel; Krause, Mechthild; Baumann, Michael; Troost, Esther G C; Löck, Steffen; Richter, Christian

2017-10-16

Radiomics applies machine learning algorithms to quantitative imaging data to characterise the tumour phenotype and predict clinical outcome. For the development of radiomics risk models, a variety of different algorithms is available and it is not clear which one gives optimal results. Therefore, we assessed the performance of 11 machine learning algorithms combined with 12 feature selection methods by the concordance index (C-Index), to predict loco-regional tumour control (LRC) and overall survival for patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma. The considered algorithms are able to deal with continuous time-to-event survival data. Feature selection and model building were performed on a multicentre cohort (213 patients) and validated using an independent cohort (80 patients). We found several combinations of machine learning algorithms and feature selection methods which achieve similar results, e.g. C-Index = 0.71 and BT-COX: C-Index = 0.70 in combination with Spearman feature selection. Using the best performing models, patients were stratified into groups of low and high risk of recurrence. Significant differences in LRC were obtained between both groups on the validation cohort. Based on the presented analysis, we identified a subset of algorithms which should be considered in future radiomics studies to develop stable and clinically relevant predictive models for time-to-event endpoints.

Surviving collapsed structure entrapment after earthquakes: a "time-to-rescue" analysis.

PubMed

Macintyre, Anthony G; Barbera, Joseph A; Smith, Edward R

2006-01-01

Massive earthquakes often cause structures to collapse, trapping victims under dense rubble for long periods of time. Commonly, this spurs resource intensive, dangerous, and frustrating attempts to find and extricate live victims. The search and rescue phase usually is maintained for many days beyond the last "save," potentially diverting critical attention and resources away from the pressing needs of non-trapped survivors and the devastated community. This recurring phenomenon is driven by the often-unanswered question "Can anyone still be alive under there?" The maximum survival time in entrapment is an important issue for responders, yet little formal research has been conducted on this issue. Knowing the maximum survival time in entrapment helps responders: (1) decide whether or not they should continue to assign limited resources to search and rescue activities; (2) assess the safety risks versus the benefits; (3) determine when search and rescue activities no longer are indicated; and (4) time and pace the important transition to community recovery efforts. The time period of 1985-2004 was selected for investigation. Medline and Lexis-Nexis databases were searched for earthquake events that occurred within this timeframe. Medical literature articles providing time-torescue data for victims of earthquakes were identified. Lexis-Nexis reports were scanned to select those with time-to-rescue data for victims of earthquakes. Reports from both databases were examined for information that might contribute to prolonged survival of entrapped individuals. A total of 34 different earthquake events met study criteria. Forty-eight medical articles containing time-to-rescue data were identified. Of these, the longest time to rescue was "13-19 days" post-event (secondhand data and the author is not specific). The second longest time to rescue in the medical articles was 8.7 days (209 hours). Twenty-five medical articles report multiple rescues that occurred after two days (48 hours). Media reports describe rescues occurring beyond Day 2 in 18 of 34 earthquakes. Of these, the longest reliably reported survival is 14 days after impact, with the next closest having survived 13 days. The average maximum times reported from these 18 earthquakes was 6.8 days (median = 5.75 days). The event with the most media reports of distinct rescue events was the 1999 Marmara, Turkey earthquake (43 victims). Times range from 0.5 days (12 hours) to 6.2 days (146 hours) for this event. Both databases provide little formal data to develop detailed insight into factors affecting survivability during entrapment. A thorough search of the English-language medical literature and media accounts provides a provocative picture of numerous survivors beyond 48 hours of entrapment under rubble, with a few successfully enduring entrapment of 13-14 days. These data are not necessarily applicable to non-earthquake collapsed-structure events. For incident managers and their medical advisors, the study findings and discussion may be useful for post-impact decision-making and in establishing and/or revising incident priorities as the response evolves.

Overall Survival After Whole-Brain Radiation Therapy for Intracerebral Metastases from Testicular Cancer.

PubMed

Rades, Dirk; Dziggel, Liesa; Veninga, Theo; Bajrovic, Amira; Schild, Steven E

2016-09-01

To identify predictors and develop a score for overall survival of patients with intracerebral metastasis from testicular cancer. Whole-brain radiation therapy program, age, Karnofsky performance score (KPS), number of intracerebral metastases, number of other metastatic sites and time between testicular cancer diagnosis and radiation therapy were analyzed for their association with overall survival in eight patients. KPS of 80-90% was significantly associated with better overall survival (p=0.006), one or no other metastatic sites showed a trend for a better outcome (p=0.10). The following scores were assigned: KPS 60-70%=0 points, KPS 80-90%=1 point, ≥2 other metastatic sites=0 points, 0-1 other metastatic sites=1 point. Two groups, with 0 and with 1-2 points, were formed. Overall survival rates were 33% vs. 100% at 6 months and 0% vs. 100% at 12 months (p=0.006), respectively. A simple instrument enabling physicians to judge the overall survival of patients with intracerebral metastasis from testicular cancer is provided. Copyright© 2016 International Institute of Anticancer Research (Dr. John G. Delinassios), All rights reserved.

Systemic lupus erythematosus. I. Outcome and survival: Dutch experience with 110 patients studied prospectively.

PubMed Central

Swaak, A J; Nossent, J C; Bronsveld, W; Van Rooyen, A; Nieuwenhuys, E J; Theuns, L; Smeenk, R J

1989-01-01

This report presents an analysis of the cumulative survival in 110 well defined patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) who were followed up over a prolonged period of time. Special attention was paid to possible differences between patients who died and those who were still alive at the end of the study. Of the 110 patients with SLE, 96 (87%) were still alive after 10 years; the cumulative survival for men was 69% (11/16) and for women 90% (85/94). Patients who never developed a new exacerbation after the diagnosis for SLE had been established had a 10 year survival of 100%; for patients with one, two, or three exacerbations the 10 year survival was 91%, 69%, and 33% respectively. From these prospective studies it was found that the exacerbation frequency is most closely related to survival. Disease symptoms of renal involvement or neurological involvement, or both, present at the onset or at the moment the SLE diagnosis was established, were predominantly seen in patients who died during the follow up. PMID:2742399

Covariate analysis of bivariate survival data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bennett, L.E.

1992-01-01

The methods developed are used to analyze the effects of covariates on bivariate survival data when censoring and ties are present. The proposed method provides models for bivariate survival data that include differential covariate effects and censored observations. The proposed models are based on an extension of the univariate Buckley-James estimators which replace censored data points by their expected values, conditional on the censoring time and the covariates. For the bivariate situation, it is necessary to determine the expectation of the failure times for one component conditional on the failure or censoring time of the other component. Two different methodsmore » have been developed to estimate these expectations. In the semiparametric approach these expectations are determined from a modification of Burke's estimate of the bivariate empirical survival function. In the parametric approach censored data points are also replaced by their conditional expected values where the expected values are determined from a specified parametric distribution. The model estimation will be based on the revised data set, comprised of uncensored components and expected values for the censored components. The variance-covariance matrix for the estimated covariate parameters has also been derived for both the semiparametric and parametric methods. Data from the Demographic and Health Survey was analyzed by these methods. The two outcome variables are post-partum amenorrhea and breastfeeding; education and parity were used as the covariates. Both the covariate parameter estimates and the variance-covariance estimates for the semiparametric and parametric models will be compared. In addition, a multivariate test statistic was used in the semiparametric model to examine contrasts. The significance of the statistic was determined from a bootstrap distribution of the test statistic.« less

Locoregional Failure Rate After Preoperative Chemoradiation of Esophageal Adenocarcinoma and the Outcomes of Salvage Strategies

PubMed Central

Sudo, Kazuki; Taketa, Takashi; Correa, Arlene M.; Campagna, Maria-Claudia; Wadhwa, Roopma; Blum, Mariela A.; Komaki, Ritsuko; Lee, Jeffrey H.; Bhutani, Manoop S.; Weston, Brian; Skinner, Heath D.; Maru, Dipen M.; Rice, David C.; Swisher, Stephen G.; Hofstetter, Wayne L.; Ajani, Jaffer A.

2013-01-01

Purpose The primary purpose of surveillance of patients with esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) and/or esophagogastric junction adenocarcinoma after local therapy (eg, chemoradiotherapy followed by surgery or trimodality therapy [TMT]) is to implement a potentially beneficial salvage therapy to overcome possible morbidity/mortality caused by locoregional failure (LRF). However, the benefits of surveillance are not well understood. We report on LRFs and salvage strategies in a large cohort. Patients and Methods Between 2000 and 2010, 518 patients with EAC who completed TMT were analyzed for the frequency of LRF over time and salvage therapy outcomes. Standard statistical techniques were used. Results For 518 patients, the median follow-up time was 29.3 months (range, 1 to 149 months). Distant metastases (with or without LRF) occurred in 188 patients (36%), and LRF only occurred in 27 patients (5%). Eleven of 27 patients had lumen-only LRF. Most LRFs (89%) occurred within 36 months of surgery. Twelve patients had salvage chemoradiotherapy, but only five survived more than 2 years. Four patients needed salvage surgery, and three who survived more than 2 years developed distant metastases. The median overall survival of 27 patients with LRF was 17 months, and 10 patients (37%) survived more than 2 years. Thus, only 2% of all 518 patients benefited from surveillance/salvage strategies. Conclusion Our surveillance strategy, which is representative of many others currently being used, raises doubts about its effectiveness and benefits (along with concerns regarding types and times of studies and costs implications) to patients with EAC who have LRF only after TMT. Fortunately, LRFs are rare after TMT, but the salvage strategies are not highly beneficial. Our data can help develop an evidence-based surveillance strategy. PMID:24145339

Cost-effectiveness of pembrolizumab versus docetaxel for the treatment of previously treated PD-L1 positive advanced NSCLC patients in the United States.

PubMed

Huang, Min; Lou, Yanyan; Pellissier, James; Burke, Thomas; Liu, Frank Xiaoqing; Xu, Ruifeng; Velcheti, Vamsidhar

2017-02-01

This analysis aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of pembrolizumab compared with docetaxel in patients with previously treated advanced non-squamous cell lung cancer (NSCLC) with PD-L1 positive tumors (total proportion score [TPS] ≥ 50%). The analysis was conducted from a US third-party payer perspective. A partitioned-survival model was developed using data from patients from the KEYNOTE 010 clinical trial. The model used Kaplan-Meier (KM) estimates of progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) from the trial for patients treated with either pembrolizumab 2 mg/kg or docetaxel 75 mg/m 2 with extrapolation based on fitted parametric functions and long-term registry data. Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were derived based on EQ-5D data from KEYNOTE 010 using a time to death approach. Costs of drug acquisition/administration, adverse event management, and clinical management of advanced NSCLC were included in the model. The base-case analysis used a time horizon of 20 years. Costs and health outcomes were discounted at a rate of 3% per year. A series of one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to test the robustness of the results. Base case results project for PD-L1 positive (TPS ≥50%) patients treated with pembrolizumab a mean survival of 2.25 years. For docetaxel, a mean survival time of 1.07 years was estimated. Expected QALYs were 1.71 and 0.76 for pembrolizumab and docetaxel, respectively. The incremental cost per QALY gained with pembrolizumab vs docetaxel is $168,619/QALY, which is cost-effective in the US using a threshold of 3-times GDP per capita. Sensitivity analyses showed the results to be robust over plausible values of the majority of inputs. Results were most sensitive to extrapolation of overall survival. Pembrolizumab improves survival, increases QALYs, and can be considered as a cost-effective option compared to docetaxel in PD-L1 positive (TPS ≥50%) pre-treated advanced NSCLC patients in the US.

Evaluation of the natural history of patients who aspirate.

PubMed

Bock, Jonathan M; Varadarajan, Varun; Brawley, Mary C; Blumin, Joel H

2017-12-01

The natural clinical progression of aspiration to eventual pulmonary compromise is not well understood. We hypothesized that dietary modification recommendations, Penetration-Aspiration Scale (PAS) score, and dysphagia etiology would be associated with changes in time to first pulmonary event and overall survival for patients with documented aspiration on radiologic testing. This study identified a cohort of patients with detectable unsensed penetration or aspiration on videofluoroscopic swallowing study (VFSS), and followed this cohort over time for development of pulmonary events and death. We then evaluated the association of aspiration severity and dietary modification recommendations on incidence of these endpoints. Retrospective chart review. A total of 2,616 VFSS exam reports were reviewed from our institution performed between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2010. Aspiration or unsensed penetration (PAS of 5 or greater) was detected in 564 (21.5%) of these patients, who were then included in the study cohort. Medical records were reviewed retrospectively for development of pulmonary events (pneumonia, pneumonitis, or other life-threatening pulmonary illness) and all-cause mortality for up to 54 months after initial VFSS. Univariate Kaplan-Meier analysis and multivariate Cox regression were performed for time to first pulmonary event and survival predicted by recommended diet, PAS score, and dysphagia etiology. Dysphagia etiology was highly associated with increased development of pulmonary events for some patients, especially those with generalized nonspecific dysphagia due to deconditioning or frailty (hazard ratio [HZ] vs. stroke 2.95, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.53-5.69, P = .001) and esophageal dysphagia (HZ: 2.66, 95% CI: 1.17-6.02, P = .019). Dysphagia etiology was also associated with increased mortality for patients with generalized nonspecific dysphagia due to deconditioning or frailty (HZ: 3.32, 95% CI: 2.0-5.52, P < .001), postsurgical patients (HZ: 1.73, 95% CI: 1.05-2.86, P = .032), and chronic neurologic disease (HZ: 1.87, 95% CI: 1.12-3.13, P = .017). Dietary modification recommendations at the time of VFSS (prohibition of oral intake or modification of food consistency) had no significant impact on time to first pulmonary event (P = .37) or survival (P = .17), whereas PAS score was associated with decreased time to first pulmonary event on univariate but not multivariate analysis (HZ for 1-point increase: 1.6, 95% CI: 0.99-1.36, P = .067). Kaplan-Meier estimate of overall 3-year mortality for this patient cohort was 39%. Etiology of dysphagia is associated with a higher mortality rate and development of pulmonary events in patients with unsensed penetration or aspiration on VFSS, especially for those patients with generalized deconditioning and frailty or esophageal dysphagia. Severity of aspiration as defined by PAS was not associated with altered overall survival. Recommendations for dietary modification to a nothing by mouth status or modified food consistency had no statistically significant association with development of pulmonary events or survival in patients with detectable unsensed penetration or aspiration on VFSS compared to full-diet recommendation. 4. Laryngoscope, 127:S1-S10, 2017. © 2017 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Mitochondrial complex II is a source of the reserve respiratory capacity that is regulated by metabolic sensors and promotes cell survival.

PubMed

Pfleger, J; He, M; Abdellatif, M

2015-07-30

The survival of a cell depends on its ability to meet its energy requirements. We hypothesized that the mitochondrial reserve respiratory capacity (RRC) of a cell is a critical component of its bioenergetics that can be utilized during an increase in energy demand, thereby, enhancing viability. Our goal was to identify the elements that regulate and contribute to the development of RRC and its involvement in cell survival. The results show that activation of metabolic sensors, including pyruvate dehydrogenase and AMP-dependent kinase, increases cardiac myocyte RRC via a Sirt3-dependent mechanism. Notably, we identified mitochondrial complex II (cII) as a target of these metabolic sensors and the main source of RRC. Moreover, we show that RRC, via cII, correlates with enhanced cell survival after hypoxia. Thus, for the first time, we show that metabolic sensors via Sirt3 maximize the cellular RRC through activating cII, which enhances cell survival after hypoxia.

Response rates and survival times for cats with lymphoma treated with the University of Wisconsin-Madison chemotherapy protocol: 38 cases (1996-2003).

PubMed

Milner, Rowan J; Peyton, Jamie; Cooke, Kirsten; Fox, Leslie E; Gallagher, Alexander; Gordon, Patti; Hester, Juli

2005-10-01

To determine response rates and survival times for cats with lymphoma treated with the University of Wisconsin-Madison chemotherapy protocol. Retrospective study. 38 cats with lymphoma. Medical records were reviewed, and information on age, sex, breed, FeLV and FIV infection status, anatomic form, clinical stage, and survival time was obtained. Immunophenotyping was not performed. Mean +/- SD age of the cats was 10.9 +/- 4.4 years. Overall median survival time was 210 days (interquartile range, 90 to 657 days), and overall duration of first remission was 156 days (interquartile range, 87 to 316 days). Age, sex, anatomic form, and clinical stage were not significantly associated with duration of first remission or survival time. Eighteen of the 38 (47%) cats had complete remission, 14 (37%) had partial remission, and 6 (16%) had no response. Duration of first remission was significantly longer for cats with complete remission (654 days) than for cats with partial remission (114 days). Median survival time for cats with complete remission (654 days) was significantly longer than median survival time for cats with partial remission (122 days) and for cats with no response (11 days). Results suggested that a high percentage of cats with lymphoma will respond to treatment with the University of Wisconsin-Madison chemotherapy protocol. Age, sex, anatomic form, and clinical stage were not significantly associated with duration of first response or survival time, but initial response to treatment was.

Parental identity influences progeny responses to incubation thermal stress in sockeye salmon Onchorhynchus nerka.

PubMed

Burt, J M; Hinch, S G; Patterson, D A

2012-02-01

The influence of individual parentage on progeny responses to early developmental temperature stress was examined in a cross-fertilization experiment using sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka. Differences in survival, hatch timing and size were examined among five paternally linked and five maternally linked offspring families (Weaver Creek population, British Columbia, Canada) incubated at 12, 14 and 16° C from just after fertilization to hatch. Mean embryonic survival was significantly lower at 14 and 16° C; however, offspring families had substantially different survival responses across the thermal gradient (crossing reaction norms). Within temperature treatments, substantial variation in embryonic survival, alevin mass, time-to-hatch and hatch duration were attributable to family identity; however, most traits were governed by significant temperature-family interactions. For embryonic survival, large differences between families at 16° C were due to both female and male spawner influence, whereas inter-family differences were obscured at 14° C (high intra-family variation), and minimal at 12° C (only maternal influence detected). Despite post-hatch rearing under a common cool thermal regime, persistent effects of both temperature and parentage were detected in alevin and 3 week-old fry. Collectively, these findings highlight the crucial role that parental influences on offspring may have in shaping future selection within salmonid populations exposed to elevated thermal regimes. An increased understanding of parental and temperature influences and their persistence in early development will be essential to developing a more comprehensive view of population spawning success and determining the adaptive capacity of O. nerka populations in the face of environmental change. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2011 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Influence of Ribeiroia ondatrae (Trematoda: Digenea) infection on limb development and survival of northern leopard frogs (Rana pipiens): effects of host stage and parasite-exposure level

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schotthoefer, Anna M.; Koehler, Anson V.; Meteyer, Carol U.; Cole, Rebecca A.

2003-01-01

Recent evidence suggests that infection by larvae of the trematode Ribeiroia ondatrae accounts for a significant proportion of limb malformations currently observed in amphibian populations of North America. However, the effects of R. ondatrae infection on northern leopard frogs (Rana pipiens), one of the species most frequently reported with malformations, have not been adequately explored. Moreover, the risk factors associated with R. ondatrae-induced malformations have not been clearly identified. We examined the effects of timing of infection on tadpole survival and limb development. Rana pipiens tadpoles were individually exposed to R. ondatrae cercariae at the pre-limb-bud (Gosner stages 24 and 25), limb-bud (Gosner stages 27 and 28), or paddle (Gosner stages 31–33) stages of development and monitored through metamorphosis. The effects of infection were stage-specific. Infections acquired at the pre-limb-bud stage resulted in a high mortality rate (47.5–97.5%), whereas tadpoles infected at the limb-bud stage displayed a high malformation rate (16% overall), and the magnitude of effects increased with the level of exposure to cercariae. In contrast, infections acquired at the paddle stage had no effect on limb development or tadpole survival, which suggests that the timing of R. ondatrae infection in relation to the stage structure of tadpole populations in the wild is an important determinant of the degree to which populations are affected by R. ondatrae.

Estimating latent time of maturation and survival costs of reproduction in continuous time from capture-recapture data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ergon, T.; Yoccoz, N.G.; Nichols, J.D.; Thomson, David L.; Cooch, Evan G.; Conroy, Michael J.

2009-01-01

In many species, age or time of maturation and survival costs of reproduction may vary substantially within and among populations. We present a capture-mark-recapture model to estimate the latent individual trait distribution of time of maturation (or other irreversible transitions) as well as survival differences associated with the two states (representing costs of reproduction). Maturation can take place at any point in continuous time, and mortality hazard rates for each reproductive state may vary according to continuous functions over time. Although we explicitly model individual heterogeneity in age/time of maturation, we make the simplifying assumption that death hazard rates do not vary among individuals within groups of animals. However, the estimates of the maturation distribution are fairly robust against individual heterogeneity in survival as long as there is no individual level correlation between mortality hazards and latent time of maturation. We apply the model to biweekly capture?recapture data of overwintering field voles (Microtus agrestis) in cyclically fluctuating populations to estimate time of maturation and survival costs of reproduction. Results show that onset of seasonal reproduction is particularly late and survival costs of reproduction are particularly large in declining populations.

Survival after total body irradiation: Effects of irradiation of exteriorized small intestine. (Reannouncement with new availability information)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vriesendorp, H.M.; Vigneulle, R.M.; Kitto, G.

1993-12-31

Rats receiving lethal irradiation to their exteriorized small intestine with pulsed 18 MVp bremsstrahlung radiation live about 4 days longer than rats receiving a dose of total-body irradiation (TBI) causing intestinal death. The LD50 for intestinal irradiation is approximately 6 Gy higher than the LD50 for intestinal death after TBI. Survival time after exteriorized intestinal irradiation can be decreased, by adding abdominal irradiation. Adding thoracic or pelvic irradiation does not alter survival time. Shielding of large intestine improves survival after irradiation of the rest of the abdomen while the small intestine is also shielded. The kinetics of histological changes inmore » small intestinal tissues implicate the release of humoral factors after irradiation of the abdomen. Radiation injury develops faster in the first (proximal) 40 cm of the small intestine and is expressed predominantly as shortening in villus height. In the last (distal) 40 cm of the small intestine, the most pronounced radiation effect is a decrease in the number of crypts per millimeter. Irradiation (20 Gy) of the proximal small intestine causes 92 % mortality (median survival 10 days). Irradiation (20 Gy) of the distal small intestine causes 27% mortality (median survival > 30 days). In addition to depletion of crypt stem cells in the small intestine, other issues (humoral factors, irradiated subsection of the small intestine and shielding of the large intestine) appear to influence radiation-induced intestinal mortality.« less

Prognostic and survival analysis of presbyopia: The healthy twin study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lira, Adiyani; Sung, Joohon

2015-12-01

Presbyopia, a vision condition in which the eye loses its flexibility to focus on near objects, is part of ageing process which mostly perceptible in the early or mid 40s. It is well known that age is its major risk factor, while sex, alcohol, poor nutrition, ocular and systemic diseases are known as common risk factors. However, many other variables might influence the prognosis. Therefore in this paper we developed a prognostic model to estimate survival from presbyopia. 1645 participants which part of the Healthy Twin Study, a prospective cohort study that has recruited Korean adult twins and their family members based on a nation-wide registry at public health agencies since 2005, were collected and analyzed by univariate analysis as well as Cox proportional hazard model to reveal the prognostic factors for presbyopia while survival curves were calculated by Kaplan-Meier method. Besides age, sex, diabetes, and myopia; the proposed model shows that education level (especially engineering program) also contribute to the occurrence of presbyopia as well. Generally, at 47 years old, the chance of getting presbyopia becomes higher with the survival probability is less than 50%. Furthermore, our study shows that by stratifying the survival curve, MZ has shorter survival with average onset time about 45.8 compare to DZ and siblings with 47.5 years old. By providing factors that have more effects and mainly associate with presbyopia, we expect that we could help to design an intervention to control or delay its onset time.

Assessing the performance of the generalized propensity score for estimating the effect of quantitative or continuous exposures on survival or time-to-event outcomes.

PubMed

Austin, Peter C

2018-01-01

Propensity score methods are frequently used to estimate the effects of interventions using observational data. The propensity score was originally developed for use with binary exposures. The generalized propensity score (GPS) is an extension of the propensity score for use with quantitative or continuous exposures (e.g. pack-years of cigarettes smoked, dose of medication, or years of education). We describe how the GPS can be used to estimate the effect of continuous exposures on survival or time-to-event outcomes. To do so we modified the concept of the dose-response function for use with time-to-event outcomes. We used Monte Carlo simulations to examine the performance of different methods of using the GPS to estimate the effect of quantitative exposures on survival or time-to-event outcomes. We examined covariate adjustment using the GPS and weighting using weights based on the inverse of the GPS. The use of methods based on the GPS was compared with the use of conventional G-computation and weighted G-computation. Conventional G-computation resulted in estimates of the dose-response function that displayed the lowest bias and the lowest variability. Amongst the two GPS-based methods, covariate adjustment using the GPS tended to have the better performance. We illustrate the application of these methods by estimating the effect of average neighbourhood income on the probability of survival following hospitalization for an acute myocardial infarction.

Clinical characteristics and treatment outcomes of patients with colorectal cancer who develop brain metastasis: a single institution experience.

PubMed

Fountzilas, Christos; Chang, Katherine; Hernandez, Brian; Michalek, Joel; Crownover, Richard; Floyd, John; Mahalingam, Devalingam

2017-02-01

The development of brain metastasis (BM) in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) is a rare and late event. We sought to investigate the clinical characteristics, disease course and safety using biologic agents in our patients with CRC who develop brain metastases. A retrospective review of patients with CRC with brain metastases treated at our institution from 01/2005-01/2015 was performed. Survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method. Forty patients were included in the analysis. Median age was 55.5 years, 67.5% were males, and 28% had a KRAS mutation. Twenty-four percent were treatment-naive at the time of BM diagnosis. Patients had a median of two brain lesions. Sixty-five percent of the patients were treated with radiotherapy alone, 22.5% had both surgical resection and brain radiotherapy. Median overall survival was 3.2 months after development of BM. Overall survival was longer in patients who received combined modality local therapy compared to patients treated with surgical resection or radiotherapy alone. Patients who received systemic treatment incorporating biologics following development of BM had a median overall survival of 18.6 months. Overall, the administration of biologic agents was safe and well tolerated. In summary, BM is an uncommon and late event in the natural history of metastatic CRC. The ability to deliver combined-modality local brain therapy as well as availability of more systemic therapy options appear to lead to improved outcomes.

Surgical therapy of canine nasal tumors: A retrospective study (1982-1986)

PubMed Central

Laing, Elizabeth J.; Binnington, Allen G.

1988-01-01

The results of surgical therapy in 15 dogs with histologically confirmed nasal tumors were analyzed retrospectively and compared to previous reports. Median survival time for all dogs was seven months. When adjusted for nontumor-related deaths, median survival increased to nine months. These values are two to three times longer than previous reports. To determine possible prognostic indicators, tumor stage, location, and histological type were compared to survival time. Dogs with unilateral nasal tumors had a median survival of 11 months, as compared to three months for dogs with bilateral tumors (p = 0.005). Tumor stage and histological type were not significant factors in comparing survival times. PMID:17423139

Long leukocyte telomere length in prostate cancer patients at diagnosis is associated with poor metastasis-free and cancer-specific survival.

PubMed

Svenson, Ulrika; Roos, Göran; Wikström, Pernilla

2017-02-01

Previous studies have suggested that leukocyte telomere length is associated with risk of developing prostate cancer. Investigations of leukocyte telomere length as a prognostic factor in prostate cancer are, however, lacking. In this study, leukocyte telomere length was investigated both as a risk marker, comparing control subjects and patient risk groups (based on serum levels of prostate-specific antigen, tumor differentiation, and tumor stage), and as a prognostic marker for metastasis-free and cancer-specific survival. Relative telomere length was measured by a well-established quantitative polymerase chain reaction method in 415 consecutively sampled individuals. Statistical evaluation included 162 control subjects without cancer development during follow-up and 110 untreated patients with newly diagnosed localized prostate cancer at the time of blood draw. Leukocyte telomere length did not differ significantly between control subjects and patients, or between patient risk groups. Interestingly, however, and in line with our previous results in breast and kidney cancer patients, relative telomere length at diagnosis was an independent prognostic factor. Patients with long leukocyte telomeres (⩾median) had a significantly worse prostate cancer-specific and metastasis-free survival compared to patients with short telomere length. In contrast, for patients who died of other causes than prostate cancer, long relative telomere length was not coupled to shorter survival time. To our knowledge, these results are novel and give further strength to our hypothesis that leukocyte telomere length might be used as a prognostic marker in malignancy.

Role of survivor bias in pancreatic cancer case-control studies.

PubMed

Hu, Zhen-Huan; Connett, John E; Yuan, Jian-Min; Anderson, Kristin E

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of survivor bias on pancreatic cancer case-control studies. The authors constructed five case-loss scenarios based on the Iowa Women's Health Study cohort to reflect how case recruitment in population-based studies varies by case survival time. Risk factors for disease incidence included smoking, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, diabetes, and alcohol consumption. Odds ratios (ORs) were estimated by conditional logistic regression and quantitatively compared by the interactions between risk factors and 3-month survival time. Additionally, Kaplan-Meier estimates for overall survival were compared within the subset cohort of pancreatic cancer cases. BMI and waist circumference showed a significant inverse relationship with survival time. Decreasing trends in ORs for BMI and waist circumference were observed with increasing case survival time. The interaction between BMI and survival time based on a cutpoint of 3 months was significant (P < .01) as was the interaction between waist circumference and survival time (P < .01). The findings suggested that case losses could result in survivor bias causing underestimated odds ratios for both BMI and waist circumference, whereas other risk factors were not significantly affected by case losses. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Individual traits as determinants of time to death under extreme drought in Pinus sylvestris L.

PubMed

Garcia-Forner, Núria; Sala, Anna; Biel, Carme; Savé, Robert; Martínez-Vilalta, Jordi

2016-10-01

Plants exhibit a variety of drought responses involving multiple interacting traits and processes, which makes predictions of drought survival challenging. Careful evaluation of responses within species, where individuals share broadly similar drought resistance strategies, can provide insight into the relative importance of different traits and processes. We subjected Pinus sylvestris L. saplings to extreme drought (no watering) leading to death in a greenhouse to (i) determine the relative effect of predisposing factors and responses to drought on survival time, (ii) identify and rank the importance of key predictors of time to death and (iii) compare individual characteristics of dead and surviving trees sampled concurrently. Time until death varied over 3 months among individual trees (from 29 to 147 days). Survival time was best predicted (higher explained variance and impact on the median survival time) by variables related to carbon uptake and carbon/water economy before and during drought. Trees with higher concentrations of monosaccharides before the beginning of the drought treatment and with higher assimilation rates prior to and during the treatment survived longer (median survival time increased 25-70 days), even at the expense of higher water loss. Dead trees exhibited less than half the amount of nonstructural carbohydrates (NSCs) in branches, stem and relative to surviving trees sampled concurrently. Overall, our results indicate that the maintenance of carbon assimilation to prevent acute depletion of NSC content above some critical level appears to be the main factor explaining survival time of P. sylvestris trees under extreme drought. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Pulmonary retransplantation in the Nordic countries.

PubMed

Lindstedt, Sandra; Dellgren, Göran; Iversen, Martin; Riise, Gerdt C; Bjørtuft, Øystein; Hämmäinen, Pekka; Skog, Ingrid; Fiane, Arnt; Wierup, Per

2015-05-01

The increasing demand for pulmonary retransplantation (re-LTx) raises ethical issues on the correct allocation of the scarce donor pool. Thus, we performed a thorough review of the current results for re-LTx in the Nordic countries. Seventy-five patients with a median age of 50 years (range, 22 to 64 years) underwent re-LTx from 1992 until June 2013, of which 53 had single re-LTx, 21 had double re-LTx, and 1 patient underwent a heart-lung retransplantation. Primary graft dysfunction (PGD) was the primary indication in 9 cases, bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome (BOS) in 62 cases, and airway complications in 4 cases. Patients who underwent re-LTx in the period 1992 to 1999 (n = 16) had a 1-year survival of 37.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 19.9 to 70.6), whereas patients who underwent re-LTx in the period 2000 to 2013 (n = 64) had a 1-year survival of 81.0% (95% CI, 71.5 to 91.8). Corresponding 5-year survival was 25.0% (95% CI, 10.7 to 58.4) in the early era group (1992 to 1999) and 57.2% (95% CI, 44.3 to 73.7) in the more recent era group (2000 to 2013; p = 0.0151). Patients with BOS who underwent re-LTx in the period 1992 to 1999 (n = 13) had a 1-year survival of 38.5% (95% CI, 19.3 to 76.5), whereas patients with BOS who underwent re-LTx in the period 2000 to 2013 (n = 49) had a 1-year survival of 85.4% (95% CI, 75.9 to 96.0). Corresponding 5-year survival was 23.1% (95% CI, 8.6 to 62.3) in the early era group (1992 to 1999) and 56.1% (95% CI, 41.9 to 75.2) in the more recent era group (2000 to 2013; p = 0.0199). The cumulative incidence among patients who underwent re-LTx because of BOS and developed BOS again after re-LTX was analyzed. The cumulative incidence curves for time periods 1992 to 1999 and 2000 to 2013 are not statistically different for repeat BOS (p = 0.5087), but they are highly significant for time periods among patients who died (p = 0.02381). Results for re-LTx have improved over time, especially when BOS is the primary indication. The cumulative incidence among patients who underwent re-LTx because of BOS and developed repeat BOS after re-LTX showed equal risk between 1992 to 1999 and 2000 to 2013 in the aspect of developing repeat BOS, but in the later era the patients had a significantly higher chance of surviving. Copyright © 2015 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Effects of pomegranate varieties on the development and fecundity of Assara inouei Yamanaka (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae)].

PubMed

He, Chao; Shen, Deng Rong; Yin, Li Hong; Li, Xi Liang; He, Jian Cai; Yuan, Sheng Yong; Tian, Xue Jun

2017-03-18

Assara inouei Yanmanaka is an important pest of pomegranate fruits in Yunnan Province. To examine the effects of different pomegranate varieties on the development and reproduction of A. inouei, the biological characteristics, such as the developmental duration, the survival rate and reproduction of this pest feeding on five pomegranate varieties including Tianlvzi, Houpitianshazi, Tianguangyan, Suanlvzi and Suanshazi were observed respectively, and the life table parameters were established under the laboratory conditions of (25±1) ℃, RH (70±10)% and a photoperiod of 15 L:9 D. The results showed that there were no significant differences in the egg stage, larval stage, pupal stage, the longevity of male adults, generation duration form egg to adult and egg hatch rate among the five varieties. There were significant differences in the pre-pupal stage, the longevity of female adults, larval survival, pupation, eclosion and total survival rates, the number of eggs laid per female as well as male and female pupal mass among the five varieties, and all of which except the larval survival were higher on Suanlvzi, followed by Houpitianshazi, but there was no significant difference between these two varieties. The results of life table showed the net reproduction rate, the intrinsic rate of increase and finite rate of increase of the Suanlvzi population were the highest. There were no significant differences in the mean generation time among the five varieties, but significant difference was observed in the population doubling time, which was the shortest on Suanlvzi population. The development and reproduction of A. inouei were better on the Suanlvzi and Houpitianshazi among the five varieties.

Evaluation of clinical and histologic factors associated with survival time in dogs with stage II splenic hemangiosarcoma treated by splenectomy and adjuvant chemotherapy: 30 cases (2011-2014).

PubMed

Moore, Antony S; Rassnick, Kenneth M; Frimberger, Angela E

2017-09-01

OBJECTIVE To determine histologic and clinical factors associated with survival time in dogs with stage II splenic hemangiosarcoma treated by splenectomy and a chemotherapy protocol in which an anthracycline was alternated with lomustine. DESIGN Retrospective case series. ANIMALS 30 dogs with stage II splenic hemangiosarcoma. PROCEDURES Medical records of 3 facilities were reviewed to identify dogs treated for stage II splenic hemangiosarcoma between June 2011 and October 2014. Information collected included signalment, disease staging data, whether anemia was present, date of splenectomy, chemotherapy protocol, adverse effects, and date of death or last follow-up. Histologic slides were reviewed and scored by pathologists. Associations between variables of interest and survival data were evaluated statistically. RESULTS Median survival time for all dogs was 158 days (range, 55 to 560 days), and the 1-year survival rate was 16%. On multivariate analysis, only the histologically determined mitotic score was significantly associated with survival time. The median survival time of 292 days for dogs with a mitotic score of 0 (< 11 mitoses/10 hpf; n = 9) was significantly longer than that for dogs with higher scores (indicating higher mitotic rates); the 1-year survival rate for these dogs was 42%. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE Results suggested that future studies should take histologic factors, particularly mitotic rate, as well as tumor stage into account when assessing treatment effects on survival time of dogs with splenic hemangiosarcoma.

A Prospective Outcomes Study of Proton Therapy for Chordomas and Chondrosarcomas of the Spine

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Indelicato, Daniel J., E-mail: dindelicato@floridaproton.org; Rotondo, Ronny L.; Begosh-Mayne, Dustin

Purpose: To evaluate the effectiveness of definitive or adjuvant external beam proton therapy on survival in patients with chordomas and chondrosarcomas of the spine. Methods and Materials: Between March 2007 and May 2013, 51 patients with a median age of 58 years (range, 22-83 years) with chordoma (n=34) or chondrosarcomas (n=17) of the sacrum (n=21), the cervical spine (n=20), and the thoracolumbar spine (n=10) were treated with external beam proton therapy to a median dose of 70.2 Gy(RBE) [range, 64.2-75.6 Gy(RBE)] at our institution. Distant metastases, overall survival, cause-specific survival, local control, and disease-free survival were calculated. Results: The mean follow-up time was 3.7 yearsmore » (range, 0.3-7.7 years). Across all time points, 25 patients experienced disease recurrence: 18 local recurrences, 6 local and distant recurrences, and 1 distant metastasis. The 4-year rates of overall survival and cause-specific survival were 72%; disease-free survival was 57%, local control was 58%, and freedom from distant metastases was 86%. The median time to local progression was 1.7 years (range, 0.2-6.0 years), and the median time to distant progression was 1.6 years (range, 0.2-6.0 years). The risk factors for local recurrence were age ≤58 years (62% vs 26%; P=.04) and recurrence after prior surgery (29% vs 81%; P=.01). Secondary cancers developed in 2 patients: B-cell lymphoma 5.5 years after treatment and bladder cancer 2 years after treatment. We observed the following toxicities: sacral soft tissue necrosis requiring surgery (n=2), T1 vertebral fracture requiring fusion surgery (n=1), chronic urinary tract infections (n=1), surgery for necrotic bone cyst (n=1), and grade 2 bilateral radiation nephritis (n=1). Conclusion: High-dose proton therapy controls more than half of spinal chordomas and chondrosarcomas and compares favorably with historic photon data. Local progression is the dominant mode of treatment failure and may be reduced by treating patients at the time of initial diagnosis. The impact of age is a novel finding of this study.« less

Mining gene link information for survival pathway hunting.

PubMed

Jing, Gao-Jian; Zhang, Zirui; Wang, Hong-Qiang; Zheng, Hong-Mei

2015-08-01

This study proposes a gene link-based method for survival time-related pathway hunting. In this method, the authors incorporate gene link information to estimate how a pathway is associated with cancer patient's survival time. Specifically, a gene link-based Cox proportional hazard model (Link-Cox) is established, in which two linked genes are considered together to represent a link variable and the association of the link with survival time is assessed using Cox proportional hazard model. On the basis of the Link-Cox model, the authors formulate a new statistic for measuring the association of a pathway with survival time of cancer patients, referred to as pathway survival score (PSS), by summarising survival significance over all the gene links in the pathway, and devise a permutation test to test the significance of an observed PSS. To evaluate the proposed method, the authors applied it to simulation data and two publicly available real-world gene expression data sets. Extensive comparisons with previous methods show the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method for survival pathway hunting.

Survival and Neurodevelopmental Outcomes among Periviable Infants

PubMed Central

Younge, Noelle; Goldstein, Ricki F.; Bann, Carla M.; Hintz, Susan R.; Patel, Ravi M.; Smith, P. Brian; Bell, Edward F.; Rysavy, Matthew A.; Duncan, Andrea F.; Vohr, Betty R.; Das, Abhik; Goldberg, Ronald N.; Higgins, Rosemary D.; Cotten, C. Michael

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND Data reported during the past 5 years indicate that rates of survival have increased among infants born at the borderline of viability, but less is known about how increased rates of survival among these infants relate to early childhood neurodevelopmental outcomes. METHODS We compared survival and neurodevelopmental outcomes among infants born at 22 to 24 weeks of gestation, as assessed at 18 to 22 months of corrected age, across three consecutive birth-year epochs (2000–2003 [epoch 1], 2004–2007 [epoch 2], and 2008–2011 [epoch 3]). The infants were born at 11 centers that participated in the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Neonatal Research Network. The primary outcome measure was a three-level outcome — survival without neurodevelopmental impairment, survival with neurodevelopmental impairment, or death. After accounting for differences in infant characteristics, including birth center, we used multinomial generalized logit models to compare the relative risk of survival without neurodevelopmental impairment, survival with neurodevelopmental impairment, and death. RESULTS Data on the primary outcome were available for 4274 of 4458 infants (96%) born at the 11 centers. The percentage of infants who survived increased from 30% (424 of 1391 infants) in epoch 1 to 36% (487 of 1348 infants) in epoch 3 (P<0.001). The percentage of infants who survived without neurodevelopmental impairment increased from 16% (217 of 1391) in epoch 1 to 20% (276 of 1348) in epoch 3 (P = 0.001), whereas the percentage of infants who survived with neurodevelopmental impairment did not change significantly (15% [207 of 1391] in epoch 1 and 16% [211 of 1348] in epoch 3, P = 0.29). After adjustment for changes in the baseline characteristics of the infants over time, both the rate of survival with neurodevelopmental impairment (as compared with death) and the rate of survival without neurodevelopmental impairment (as compared with death) increased over time (adjusted relative risks, 1.27 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.01 to 1.59] and 1.59 [95% CI, 1.28 to 1.99], respectively). CONCLUSIONS The rate of survival without neurodevelopmental impairment increased between 2000 and 2011 in this large cohort of periviable infants. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and others; ClinicalTrials.gov numbers, NCT00063063 and NCT00009633.) PMID:28199816

Effect of smoking on survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma.

PubMed

Kolly, Philippe; Knöpfli, Marina; Dufour, Jean-François

2017-11-01

Lifestyle factors such as smoking, obesity and physical activity have gained interest in the field of hepatocellular carcinoma. These factors play a significant role in the development of hepatocellular carcinoma. Several studies revealed the impact of tobacco consumption on the development of hepatocellular carcinoma and its synergistic effects with viral etiologies (hepatitis B and C). The effects of smoking on survival in patients with a diagnosed hepatocellular carcinoma have not yet been investigated in a Western cohort where hepatitis C infection is a major risk factor. Using data from a prospective cohort of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma who were followed at the University Hospital of Bern, Switzerland, survival was compared by Kaplan-Meier analysis in smokers and nonsmokers, and multivariate Cox regression was applied to control for confounding variables. Of 238 eligible hepatocellular carcinoma patients, 64 were smokers at the time of inclusion and 174 were nonsmokers. Smokers had a significant worse overall survival than nonsmokers (hazard ratio 1.77, 95% confidence interval: 1.22-2.58, P=.003). Analysis of patients according to their underlying liver disease, revealed that smoking, and not nonsmoking, affected survival of hepatitis B virus and C virus-infected patients only. In this subgroup, smoking was an independent predictor for survival (hazard ratio 2.99, 95% confidence interval: 1.7-5.23, P<.001) and remained independently predictive when adjusted for confounding variables. This study shows that smoking is an independent predictor of survival in hepatitis B virus/hepatitis C virus-infected patients with hepatocellular carcinoma. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Light ion irradiation for unfavorable soft tissue sarcoma

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Linstadt, D.; Castro, J.R.; Phillips, T.L.

1990-09-01

Between 1978 and 1989, 32 patients with unfavorable soft tissue sarcoma underwent light ion (helium, neon) irradiation with curative intent at Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory. The tumors were located in the trunk in 22 patients and head and neck in 10. Macroscopic tumor was present in 22 at the time of irradiation. Two patients had tumors apparently induced by previous therapeutic irradiation. Follow-up times for surviving patients ranged from 4 to 121 months (median 27 months). The overall 3-year actuarial local control rate was 62%; the corresponding survival rate was 50%. The 3-year actuarial control rate for patients irradiated with macroscopicmore » tumors was 48%, while none of the patients with microscopic disease developed local recurrence (100%). The corresponding 3-year actuarial survival rates were 40% (macroscopic) and 78% (microscopic). Patients with retroperitoneal sarcoma did notably well; the local control rate and survival rate were 64% and 62%, respectively. Complications were acceptable; there were no radiation related deaths, while two patients (6%) required operations to correct significant radiation-related injuries. These results appear promising compared to those achieved by low -LET irradiation, and suggest that this technique merits further investigation.« less

Surgical Treatment of Recurrent Endometrial Cancer: Time for a Paradigm Shift.

PubMed

Papadia, Andrea; Bellati, Filippo; Ditto, Antonino; Bogani, Giorgio; Gasparri, Maria Luisa; Di Donato, Violante; Martinelli, Fabio; Lorusso, Domenica; Benedetti-Panici, Pierluigi; Raspagliesi, Francesco

2015-12-01

Although surgery represents the cornerstone treatment of endometrial cancer at initial diagnosis, scarce data are available in recurrent setting. The purpose of this study was to review the outcome of surgery in these patients. Medical records of all patients undergoing surgery for recurrent endometrial cancer at NCI Milano between January 2003 and January 2014 were reviewed. Survival was determined from the time of surgery for recurrence to last follow-up. Survival was estimated using Kaplan-Meier methods. Differences in survival were analyzed using the log-rank test. The Fisher's exact test was used to compare optimal versus suboptimal cytoreduction against possible predictive factors. Sixty-four patients were identified. Median age was 66 years. Recurrences were multiple in 38 % of the cases. Optimal cytoreduction was achieved in 65.6 %. Median OR time was 165 min, median postoperative hemoglobin drop was 2.4 g/dl, and median length hospital stay was 5.5 days. Eleven patients developed postoperative complications, but only four required surgical management. Estimated 5-year progression-free survival (PFS) was 42 and 19 % in optimally and suboptimally cytoreduced patients, respectively. At multivariate analysis, only residual disease was associated with PFS. Estimated 5-year overall survival (OS) was 60 and 30 % in optimally and suboptimally cytoreduced patients, respectively. At multivariate analysis, residual disease and histotype were associated with OS. At multivariate analysis, only performance status was associated with optimal cytoreduction. Secondary cytoreduction in endometrial cancer is associated with long PFS and OS. The only factors associated with improved long-term outcome are the absence of residual disease at the end of surgical resection and histotype.

Effects of carbaryl on green frog (Rana clamitans) tadpoles: Timing of exposure versus multiple exposures

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boone, M.D.; Bridges, C.M.

2003-01-01

The majority of studies on pesticide impacts have evaluated the effects of single exposures. However, multiple exposures to a pesticide may be more prevalent. The objective of our study was to determine how multiple exposures versus single exposure at different times during development affected survival to metamorphosis, tadpole survival, tadpole mass, and tadpole developmental stage of green frog (Rana clamitans) tadpoles reared at low and high density in outdoor cattle tank ponds. Tadpoles were exposed to carbaryl zero, one, two, or three times at 14-d intervals. We applied single doses of carbaryl at one of three times, specifically during early, mid, or late development. Overall, we found that multiple exposures had a greater impact than single exposures during development. More individuals reached metamorphosis in ponds exposed to multiple doses of carbaryl compared with controls, indicating that the presence of carbaryl stimulated metamorphosis. The presence of carbaryl in the aquatic environment also resulted in more developed tadpoles compared with controls. Tadpoles in control ponds did not reach metamorphosis and were less developed than individuals exposed to carbaryl; this effect indicates that, under ideal conditions, green frogs could overwinter in ponds so that greater size could be attained before metamorphosis in the following spring or summer. Our study demonstrated the importance of including realistic application procedures when evaluating the effects of a pesticide and that multiple exposures to a short-lived pesticide are more likely to affect an amphibian population.

Impact of educational differences as measure of socioeconomic status on survival for breast cancer patients.

PubMed

Nowara, Elżbieta; Suwiński, Rafał

2012-01-01

Breast cancer is the most frequent malignancy affecting women. Some reports suggest the influence of socioeconomic status, including education, on survival rates for cancer patients. This report analyzes the effect of patients' education level on their survival. A retrospective analysis of the group of 810 breast cancer patients treated in single center in Poland was performed. The analyzed group included women with elementary education (24%), vocational training (19%), secondary (38%) or higher education (16%). Overall, recurrence-free and metastasis free survival times were analyzed. The actuarial 5-year overall survival was 72% (median 4.7 years), 5-year local recurrence-free survival was 84%, whereas metastasis-free survival 76%. Multivariate Cox model has shown that lower education had independent significantly negative influence on local recurrence-free survival time (p = 0.024). The highest risk of recurrence was found for patients with elementary education (p = 0.009). The same was confirmed for distant metastasis-free survival (p = 0.001), with the highest risk of metastases in patients with vocational education and stage IIIB breast cancer (p < 0.001). Education level had significant impact on overall survival. The patients with higher-level education lived longer (p = 0.042). Shorter recurrence-free survival time among women attaining lowest education level and longer overall survival time for women with higher education level suggest the necessity for intensified cancer awareness educational effort and screening among less-educated healthy Polish women.

Validation of the Hong Kong Liver Cancer Staging System in Determining Prognosis of the North American Patients Following Intra-arterial Therapy

PubMed Central

Sohn, Jae Ho; Duran, Rafael; Zhao, Yan; Fleckenstein, Florian; Chapiro, Julius; Sahu, Sonia P.; Schernthaner, Rüdiger E.; Qian, Tianchen; Lee, Howard; Zhao, Li; Hamilton, James; Frangakis, Constantine; Lin, MingDe; Salem, Riad; Geschwind, Jean-Francois

2018-01-01

Background & Aims There is debate over the best way to stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We attempted to validate the prognostic and clinical utility of the recently developed Hong Kong Liver Cancer (HKLC) staging system, a hepatitis B-based model, and compared data with that from the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging system in a North American population who underwent intra-arterial therapy (IAT). Methods We performed a retrospective analysis of data from 1009 patients with HCC who underwent intra-arterial therapy from 2000 through 2014. Most patients had hepatitis C or unresectable tumors; all patients underwent IAT, with or without resection, transplantation, and/or systemic chemotherapy. We calculated HCC stage for each patient using 5-stage HKLC (HKLC-5) and 9-stage HKLC (HKLC-9) system classifications, as well as the BCLC system. Survival information was collected up until end of 2014 at which point living or unconfirmed patients were censored. We compared performance of the BCLC, HKLC-5, and HKLC-9 systems in predicting patient outcomes using Kaplan-Meier estimates, calibration plots, c-statistic, Akaike information criterion, and the likelihood ratio test. Results Median overall survival time, calculated from first IAT until date of death or censorship, for the entire cohort (all stages) was 9.8 months. The BCLC and HKLC staging systems predicted patient survival times with significance (P<.001). HKLC-5 and HKLC-9 each demonstrated good calibration. The HKLC-5 system outperformed the BCLC system in predicting patient survival times (HKLC c=0.71, Akaike information criterion=6242; BCLC c=0.64, Akaike information criterion=6320), reducing error in predicting survival time (HKLC reduced error by 14%, BCLC reduced error by 12%), and homogeneity (HKLC χ2=201; P<.001; BCLC χ2=119; P<.001) and monotonicity (HKLC linear trend χ2=193; P<.001; BCLC linear trend χ2=111; P<.001). Small proportions of patients with HCC of stages IV or V, according to the HKLC system, survived for 6 months and 4 months, respectively. Conclusion In a retrospective analysis of patients who underwent IAT for unresectable HCC, we found the HKLC-5 staging system to have the best combination of performances in survival separation, calibration, and discrimination; it consistently outperformed the BCLC system in predicting survival times of patients. The HKLC system identified patients with HCC of stages IV and V who are unlikely to benefit from IAT. PMID:27847278

Validation of the Hong Kong Liver Cancer Staging System in Determining Prognosis of the North American Patients Following Intra-arterial Therapy.

PubMed

Sohn, Jae Ho; Duran, Rafael; Zhao, Yan; Fleckenstein, Florian; Chapiro, Julius; Sahu, Sonia; Schernthaner, Rüdiger E; Qian, Tianchen; Lee, Howard; Zhao, Li; Hamilton, James; Frangakis, Constantine; Lin, MingDe; Salem, Riad; Geschwind, Jean-Francois

2017-05-01

There is debate over the best way to stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We attempted to validate the prognostic and clinical utility of the recently developed Hong Kong Liver Cancer (HKLC) staging system, a hepatitis B-based model, and compared data with that from the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging system in a North American population that underwent intra-arterial therapy (IAT). We performed a retrospective analysis of data from 1009 patients with HCC who underwent IAT from 2000 through 2014. Most patients had hepatitis C or unresectable tumors; all patients underwent IAT, with or without resection, transplantation, and/or systemic chemotherapy. We calculated HCC stage for each patient using 5-stage HKLC (HKLC-5) and 9-stage HKLC (HKLC-9) system classifications, and the BCLC system. Survival information was collected up until the end of 2014 at which point living or unconfirmed patients were censored. We compared performance of the BCLC, HKLC-5, and HKLC-9 systems in predicting patient outcomes using Kaplan-Meier estimates, calibration plots, C statistic, Akaike information criterion, and the likelihood ratio test. Median overall survival time, calculated from first IAT until date of death or censorship, for the entire cohort (all stages) was 9.8 months. The BCLC and HKLC staging systems predicted patient survival times with significance (P < .001). HKLC-5 and HKLC-9 each demonstrated good calibration. The HKLC-5 system outperformed the BCLC system in predicting patient survival times (HKLC C = 0.71, Akaike information criterion = 6242; BCLC C = 0.64, Akaike information criterion = 6320), reducing error in predicting survival time (HKLC reduced error by 14%, BCLC reduced error by 12%), and homogeneity (HKLC chi-square = 201, P < .001; BCLC chi-square = 119, P < .001) and monotonicity (HKLC linear trend chi-square = 193, P < .001; BCLC linear trend chi-square = 111, P < .001). Small proportions of patients with HCC of stages IV or V, according to the HKLC system, survived for 6 months and 4 months, respectively. In a retrospective analysis of patients who underwent IAT for unresectable HCC, we found the HKLC-5 staging system to have the best combination of performances in survival separation, calibration, and discrimination; it consistently outperformed the BCLC system in predicting survival times of patients. The HKLC system identified patients with HCC of stages IV and V who are unlikely to benefit from IAT. Copyright © 2017 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prediction of Conditional Probability of Survival After Surgery for Gastric Cancer: A Study Based on Eastern and Western Large Data Sets.

PubMed

Zhong, Qing; Chen, Qi-Yue; Li, Ping; Xie, Jian-Wei; Wang, Jia-Bin; Lin, Jian-Xian; Lu, Jun; Cao, Long-Long; Lin, Mi; Tu, Ru-Hong; Zheng, Chao-Hui; Huang, Chang-Ming

2018-04-20

The dynamic prognosis of patients who have undergone curative surgery for gastric cancer has yet to be reported. Our objective was to devise an accurate tool for predicting the conditional probability of survival for these patients. We analyzed 11,551 gastric cancer patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Two-thirds of the patients were selected randomly for the development set and one-third for the validation set. Two nomograms were constructed to predict the conditional probability of overall survival and the conditional probability of disease-specific survival, using conditional survival methods. We then applied these nomograms to the 4,001 patients in the database from Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, Fuzhou, China, one of the most active Chinese institutes. The 5-year conditional probability of overall survival of the patients was 41.6% immediately after resection and increased to 52.8%, 68.2%, and 80.4% at 1, 2, and 3 years after gastrectomy. The 5-year conditional probability of disease-specific survival "increased" from 48.9% at the time of gastrectomy to 59.8%, 74.7%, and 85.5% for patients surviving 1, 2, and 3 years, respectively. Sex; race; age; depth of tumor invasion; lymph node metastasis; and tumor size, site, and grade were associated with overall survival and disease-specific survival (P <.05). Within the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results validation set, the accuracy of the conditional probability of overall survival nomogram was 0.77, 0.81, 0.82, and 0.82 at 1, 3, 5, and 10 years after gastrectomy, respectively. Within the other validation set from the Fujian Medical University Union Hospital (n = 4,001), the accuracy of the conditional probability of overall survival nomogram was 0.76, 0.79, 0.77, and 0.77 at 1, 3, 5, and 10 years, respectively. The accuracy of the conditional probability of disease-specific survival model was also favorable. The calibration curve demonstrated good agreement between the predicted and observed survival rates. Based on the large Eastern and Western data sets, we developed and validated the first conditional nomogram for prediction of conditional probability of survival for patients with gastric cancer to allow consideration of the duration of survivorship. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Association of Time between Surgery and Adjuvant Therapy with Survival in Oral Cavity Cancer.

PubMed

Chen, Michelle M; Harris, Jeremy P; Orosco, Ryan K; Sirjani, Davud; Hara, Wendy; Divi, Vasu

2018-06-01

Objective The National Cancer Center Network recommends starting radiation therapy within 6 weeks after surgery for oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma (OCSCC), but there is limited evidence of the importance of the total time from surgery to completion of radiation therapy (package time). We set out to determine if there was an association between package time and survival in OCSCC and to evaluate the impact of treatment location on outcomes. Study Design Retrospective cohort study. Setting Tertiary academic medical center. Subjects and Methods We reviewed the records of patients with OCSCC who completed postoperative radiation therapy at an academic medical center from 2008 to 2016. The primary endpoints were overall survival and recurrence-free survival. Statistical analysis included χ 2 tests and Cox proportional hazards regressions. Results We identified 132 patients with an average package time of 12.6 weeks. On multivariate analysis, package time >11 weeks was independently associated with decreased overall survival (hazard ratio, 6.68; 95% CI, 1.42-31.44) and recurrence-free survival (hazard ratio, 2.94; 95% CI, 1.20-7.18). Patients who received radiation therapy at outside facilities were more likely to have treatment delays (90.2% vs 62.9%, P = .001). Conclusions Prolonged package times are associated with decreased overall and recurrence-free survival among patients with OCSCC. Patients who received radiation therapy at outside facilities are more likely to have prolonged package times.

Fitness costs of intrinsic competition in two egg parasitoids of a true bug.

PubMed

Cusumano, Antonino; Peri, Ezio; Boivin, Guy; Colazza, Stefano

2015-10-01

Intrinsic competition in insect parasitoids occurs when supernumerary larvae develop in the same host as consequence of multiple ovipositions by females of the same species (intra-specific competition) or by females of different species (inter-specific competition). Studies on intrinsic competition have mainly focused on understanding the factors that play a role in the outcome of competition, while fitness-related effects for the parasitoid surviving the competition have been poorly investigated, especially in egg parasitoids. Interestingly, even the winning parasitoid can experience fitness costs due to larval development in a host in which multiple factors have been injected by the ovipositing females or released by their larvae. In this paper we studied fitness-related traits associated with intra- and inter-specific competition between Trissolcus basalis (Wollaston) and Ooencyrtus telenomicida (Vassiliev), the main egg parasitoids associated with the southern green stink bug Nezara viridula (L.) in Italy. We investigated the impact of intrinsic competition for the surviving parasitoid in terms of body size, developmental time, number and size of oocytes. Our results indicated that T. basalis adults did not experience fitness-related costs when surviving intra-specific competition; however, adults were smaller, took longer to develop and females produced fewer oocytes after surviving inter-specific competition. A different outcome was found for O. telenomicida where the emerging females were smaller, produced fewer and smaller oocytes when suffering intra-specific competition whereas no fitness costs were found when adults survived inter-specific competition. These results support the hypothesis that the impact of intrinsic competition in egg parasitoids depends on the severity of the competitive interaction, as fitness costs were more pronounced when the surviving parasitoid interacted with the most detrimental competitor. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Architecture for Survivable System Processing (ASSP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, Richard J.

1991-11-01

The Architecture for Survivable System Processing (ASSP) Program is a multi-phase effort to implement Department of Defense (DOD) and commercially developed high-tech hardware, software, and architectures for reliable space avionics and ground based systems. System configuration options provide processing capabilities to address Time Dependent Processing (TDP), Object Dependent Processing (ODP), and Mission Dependent Processing (MDP) requirements through Open System Architecture (OSA) alternatives that allow for the enhancement, incorporation, and capitalization of a broad range of development assets. High technology developments in hardware, software, and networking models, address technology challenges of long processor life times, fault tolerance, reliability, throughput, memories, radiation hardening, size, weight, power (SWAP) and security. Hardware and software design, development, and implementation focus on the interconnectivity/interoperability of an open system architecture and is being developed to apply new technology into practical OSA components. To insure for widely acceptable architecture capable of interfacing with various commercial and military components, this program provides for regular interactions with standardization working groups (e.g.) the International Standards Organization (ISO), American National Standards Institute (ANSI), Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE), and Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers (IEEE). Selection of a viable open architecture is based on the widely accepted standards that implement the ISO/OSI Reference Model.

Architecture for Survivable System Processing (ASSP)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wood, Richard J.

1991-01-01

The Architecture for Survivable System Processing (ASSP) Program is a multi-phase effort to implement Department of Defense (DOD) and commercially developed high-tech hardware, software, and architectures for reliable space avionics and ground based systems. System configuration options provide processing capabilities to address Time Dependent Processing (TDP), Object Dependent Processing (ODP), and Mission Dependent Processing (MDP) requirements through Open System Architecture (OSA) alternatives that allow for the enhancement, incorporation, and capitalization of a broad range of development assets. High technology developments in hardware, software, and networking models, address technology challenges of long processor life times, fault tolerance, reliability, throughput, memories, radiation hardening, size, weight, power (SWAP) and security. Hardware and software design, development, and implementation focus on the interconnectivity/interoperability of an open system architecture and is being developed to apply new technology into practical OSA components. To insure for widely acceptable architecture capable of interfacing with various commercial and military components, this program provides for regular interactions with standardization working groups (e.g.) the International Standards Organization (ISO), American National Standards Institute (ANSI), Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE), and Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers (IEEE). Selection of a viable open architecture is based on the widely accepted standards that implement the ISO/OSI Reference Model.

[Liver cirrhosis patogenetics: polymorphism of glutation S-transferase genes].

PubMed

Goncharova, I A; Rachkovskiĭ, M I; Beloborodova, E V; Gamal' Abd El'-Aziz Nasar, Kh; Puzyrev, V P

2010-01-01

Association of deletion polymorphism in GSTT1 and GSTM1 genes and polymorphic variant A313G of GSTP1 gene with cirrhosis diseases and 4-year survival rate for the Tomsk region (West Siberia) patients were tested. Homozygous deletion of GSTM1 gene (null genotype) was a protective factor for alcoholic and mixed (HCV, HBV and alcohol) liver cirrhosis development. The patients from the joint group (all etiology forms) as well as having alcoholic and mixed cirrhosis had lower frequency of GSTM1 null genotype (39.2, 39.0, and 34.2%, respectively) in comparison with the control group (64.6%). The GSTM1 null genotype and GSTP1 gene A313G polymorphic variant correlated with the patients' survival rate. The patients survived in comparison with the dead had higher frequency of a GSTM1 null genotype (46.6 vs. 30.2%) and GSTP1 AA genotype (63.1 vs. 40.5%), and lower frequency of GSTP1 AG (A313G) genotype (31.1 vs. 51.2%). A survival rate was 2.5 times higher for patients having GSTP1 AA genotype in comparison with the GG and AG genotype carriers and 2 times higher for patients having GSTM1 null genotype than the gene carriers. A 4-year fatal case probability was 2.3 times higher among the patients having heterozygous AG GSTP1 genotype in comparison with homozygous AA and GG genotype carriers.

Development of thermotolerance in CHO cells: modification by procaine.

PubMed

Rastogi, D; Henle, K J; Nagle, W A; Moss, A J; Neilan, B A; Rastogi, S P

1987-01-01

We have tested the reported ability of procaine to inhibit the induction and the development of thermotolerance in Chinese hamster ovary cells. Thermotolerance was induced either by hyperthermia alone (10 min, 45 degrees C) or by combining hyperthermia and procaine (5 min, 45 degrees C + 10 mM procaine) with heating times adjusted to yield similar cell survival after the conditioning treatments. Both the kinetics of thermotolerance development in fresh medium without procaine and the magnitude of thermotolerance 6 h after heat conditioning were similar for the two treatment groups. Development of thermotolerance in the presence of procaine was tested by adding the drug at 5 or 10 mM to culture medium between, but not during two fractionated heat treatments. Thermotolerance development was observed even in the presence of 10 mM procaine, but only if cell survival was corrected for the 37 degrees C-procaine toxicity. Complete survival curves of cells incubated for 6 h at 37 degrees C in 7.5 mM procaine between heat conditioning and test heating showed a D0 that was only 35 per cent lower than that of thermotolerant controls. The data are consistent with the reported sensitization to heat killing by procaine, but show that thermotolerance induction and development were only minimally perturbed by procaine.

Survival time and effect of selected predictor variables on survival in owned pet cats seropositive for feline immunodeficiency and leukemia virus attending a referral clinic in northern Italy.

PubMed

Spada, Eva; Perego, Roberta; Sgamma, Elena Assunta; Proverbio, Daniela

2018-02-01

Feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) and feline leukemia virus (FeLV) are among the most important feline infectious diseases worldwide. This retrospective study investigated survival times and effects of selected predictor factors on survival time in a population of owned pet cats in Northern Italy testing positive for the presence of FIV antibodies and FeLV antigen. One hundred and three retrovirus-seropositive cats, 53 FIV-seropositive cats, 40 FeLV-seropositive cats, and 10 FIV+FeLV-seropositive cats were included in the study. A population of 103 retrovirus-seronegative age and sex-matched cats was selected. Survival time was calculated and compared between retrovirus-seronegative, FIV, FeLV and FIV+FeLV-seropositive cats using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Cox proportional-hazards regression analysis was used to study the effect of selected predictor factors (male gender, peripheral blood cytopenia as reduced red blood cells - RBC- count, leukopenia, neutropenia and lymphopenia, hypercreatininemia and reduced albumin to globulin ratio) on survival time in retrovirus-seropositive populations. Median survival times for seronegative cats, FIV, FeLV and FIV+FeLV-seropositive cats were 3960, 2040, 714 and 77days, respectively. Compared to retrovirus-seronegative cats median survival time was significantly lower (P<0.000) in FeLV and FIV+FeLV-seropositive cats. Median survival time in FeLV and FIV+FeLV-seropositive cats was also significant lower (P<0.000) when compared to FIV-seropositive cats. Hazard ratio of death in FeLV and FIV+FeLV-seropositive cats being respectively 3.4 and 7.4 times higher, in comparison to seronegative cats and 2.3 and 4.8 times higher in FeLV and FIV+FeLV-seropositive cats as compared to FIV-seropositive cats. A Cox proportional-hazards regression analysis showed that FIV and FeLV-seropositive cats with reduced RBC counts at time of diagnosis of seropositivity had significantly shorter survival times when compared to FIV and FeLV-seropositive cats with normal RBC counts at diagnosis. In summary, FIV-seropositive status did not significantly affect longevity of cats in this study, unlike FeLV and FIV+FeLV-seropositivity. Reduced RBC counts at time of FIV and FeLV diagnosis could impact negatively on the longevity of seropositive cats and therefore blood counts should always be evaluated at diagnosis and follow-up of retrovirus-seropositive cats. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The role of school engagement in preventing adolescent delinquency and substance use: a survival analysis.

PubMed

Li, Yibing; Zhang, Wei; Liu, Jianjun; Arbeit, Miriam R; Schwartz, Seth J; Bowers, Edmond P; Lerner, Richard M

2011-12-01

The present study was designed to examine the effects of school engagement on risky behavior in adolescence. Using data from the 4-H Study of Positive Youth Development (PYD), a longitudinal study of U.S. adolescents, discrete-time survival analyses were conducted to assess the effect of behavioral and emotional school engagement on the initiation of drug use and delinquency. The current analyses used seven years of longitudinal data collected from youth and their parents. Results of discrete-time survival analysis indicated that, controlling for demographic variables, higher degrees of behavioral and emotional school engagement predicted a significantly lower risk of substance use and involvement in delinquency. Substance use prevention programs and other health-risk reduction programs should include components (i.e., adolescents' participation in and emotional attachment to school) to capitalize on the protective role of the school context against youth risk behavior. Copyright © 2011 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Local Agreement Pattern Measure Based on Hazard Functions for Survival Outcomes

PubMed Central

Dai, Tian; Guo, Ying; Peng, Limin; Manatunga, Amita K.

2017-01-01

Summary Assessing agreement is often of interest in biomedical and clinical research when measurements are obtained on the same subjects by different raters or methods. Most classical agreement methods have been focused on global summary statistics, which cannot be used to describe various local agreement patterns. The objective of this work is to study the local agreement pattern between two continuous measurements subject to censoring. In this paper, we propose a new agreement measure based on bivariate hazard functions to characterize the local agreement pattern between two correlated survival outcomes. The proposed measure naturally accommodates censored observations, fully captures the dependence structure between bivariate survival times and provides detailed information on how the strength of agreement evolves over time. We develop a nonparametric estimation method for the proposed local agreement pattern measure and study theoretical properties including strong consistency and asymptotical normality. We then evaluate the performance of the estimator through simulation studies and illustrate the method using a prostate cancer data example. PMID:28724196

A local agreement pattern measure based on hazard functions for survival outcomes.

PubMed

Dai, Tian; Guo, Ying; Peng, Limin; Manatunga, Amita K

2018-03-01

Assessing agreement is often of interest in biomedical and clinical research when measurements are obtained on the same subjects by different raters or methods. Most classical agreement methods have been focused on global summary statistics, which cannot be used to describe various local agreement patterns. The objective of this work is to study the local agreement pattern between two continuous measurements subject to censoring. In this article, we propose a new agreement measure based on bivariate hazard functions to characterize the local agreement pattern between two correlated survival outcomes. The proposed measure naturally accommodates censored observations, fully captures the dependence structure between bivariate survival times and provides detailed information on how the strength of agreement evolves over time. We develop a nonparametric estimation method for the proposed local agreement pattern measure and study theoretical properties including strong consistency and asymptotical normality. We then evaluate the performance of the estimator through simulation studies and illustrate the method using a prostate cancer data example. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

Aerogenic vaccination with a Burkholderia mallei auxotroph protects against aerosol-initiated glanders in mice.

PubMed

Ulrich, Ricky L; Amemiya, Kei; Waag, David M; Roy, Chad J; DeShazer, David

2005-03-14

Burkholderia mallei is an obligate mammalian pathogen that causes the zoonotic disease glanders. Two live attenuated B. mallei strains, a capsule mutant and a branched-chain amino acid auxotroph, were evaluated for use as vaccines against aerosol-initiated glanders in mice. Animals were aerogenically vaccinated and serum samples were obtained before aerosol challenge with a high-dose (>300 times the LD50) of B. mallei ATCC 23344. Mice vaccinated with the capsule mutant developed a Th2-like Ig subclass antibody response and none survived beyond 5 days. In comparison, the auxotrophic mutant elicited a Th1-like Ig subclass antibody response and 25% of the animals survived for 1 month postchallenge. After a low-dose (5 times the LD50) aerosol challenge, the survival rates of auxotroph-vaccinated and unvaccinated animals were 50 and 0%, respectively. Thus, live attenuated strains that promote a Th1-like Ig response may serve as promising vaccine candidates against aerosol infection with B. mallei.

DELETERIOUS EFFECTS OF HIGH FAT DIETS ON SURVIVAL TIME OF X-IRRADIATED MICE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ershoff, B.H.

1961-02-01

The effects of multiple sublethal doses of total body x-irradiation were determined on survival time of male mice fed either a purified fat-free ration or a similar diet supplemented with 2, 10, 20, or 30% cottonseed oil, marganine fat, or butter fat. The effects obtnined were dependent on the amount and source of dietary fat. At levels of 2 or 10% of the diet, cottonseed oil and margarine fat increased survival time over that on the fat-free ration. When these fats were fed at higher levels (i.e., 20 or 30% of the diet), however, survival time was decreased below thatmore » obtained at the lower levels of supplementation. In contrast to the results obtained with the cottonseed oil or margarine fat supplements, butter fat at levels of 2 or 10% of the diet did not prolong survival over that on the fat-free ration; nor did it decrease survival time when fed at higher levels in the diet. (auth)« less

Comparative survival study of glial cells and cells composing walls of blood vessels in crustacean ventral nerve cord after photodynamic treatment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolosov, Mikhail S.; Shubina, Elena

2015-03-01

Photodynamic therapy is a prospective treatment modality of brain cancers. It is of importance to have information about relative survival rate of different cell types in nerve tissue during photodynamic treatment. Particularly, for development of sparing strategy of the photodynamic therapy of brain tumors, which pursuits both total elimination of malignant cells, which are usually of glial origin, and, at the same time, preservation of normal blood circulation as well as normal glial cells in the brain. The aim of this work was to carry out comparative survival study of glial cells and cells composing walls of blood vessels after photodynamic treatment, using simple model object - ventral nerve cord of crustacean.

Joint modelling of repeated measurement and time-to-event data: an introductory tutorial.

PubMed

Asar, Özgür; Ritchie, James; Kalra, Philip A; Diggle, Peter J

2015-02-01

The term 'joint modelling' is used in the statistical literature to refer to methods for simultaneously analysing longitudinal measurement outcomes, also called repeated measurement data, and time-to-event outcomes, also called survival data. A typical example from nephrology is a study in which the data from each participant consist of repeated estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) measurements and time to initiation of renal replacement therapy (RRT). Joint models typically combine linear mixed effects models for repeated measurements and Cox models for censored survival outcomes. Our aim in this paper is to present an introductory tutorial on joint modelling methods, with a case study in nephrology. We describe the development of the joint modelling framework and compare the results with those obtained by the more widely used approaches of conducting separate analyses of the repeated measurements and survival times based on a linear mixed effects model and a Cox model, respectively. Our case study concerns a data set from the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Standards Implementation Study (CRISIS). We also provide details of our open-source software implementation to allow others to replicate and/or modify our analysis. The results for the conventional linear mixed effects model and the longitudinal component of the joint models were found to be similar. However, there were considerable differences between the results for the Cox model with time-varying covariate and the time-to-event component of the joint model. For example, the relationship between kidney function as measured by eGFR and the hazard for initiation of RRT was significantly underestimated by the Cox model that treats eGFR as a time-varying covariate, because the Cox model does not take measurement error in eGFR into account. Joint models should be preferred for simultaneous analyses of repeated measurement and survival data, especially when the former is measured with error and the association between the underlying error-free measurement process and the hazard for survival is of scientific interest. © The Author 2015; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

Causal Mediation Analysis of Survival Outcome with Multiple Mediators.

PubMed

Huang, Yen-Tsung; Yang, Hwai-I

2017-05-01

Mediation analyses have been a popular approach to investigate the effect of an exposure on an outcome through a mediator. Mediation models with multiple mediators have been proposed for continuous and dichotomous outcomes. However, development of multimediator models for survival outcomes is still limited. We present methods for multimediator analyses using three survival models: Aalen additive hazard models, Cox proportional hazard models, and semiparametric probit models. Effects through mediators can be characterized by path-specific effects, for which definitions and identifiability assumptions are provided. We derive closed-form expressions for path-specific effects for the three models, which are intuitively interpreted using a causal diagram. Mediation analyses using Cox models under the rare-outcome assumption and Aalen additive hazard models consider effects on log hazard ratio and hazard difference, respectively; analyses using semiparametric probit models consider effects on difference in transformed survival time and survival probability. The three models were applied to a hepatitis study where we investigated effects of hepatitis C on liver cancer incidence mediated through baseline and/or follow-up hepatitis B viral load. The three methods show consistent results on respective effect scales, which suggest an adverse estimated effect of hepatitis C on liver cancer not mediated through hepatitis B, and a protective estimated effect mediated through the baseline (and possibly follow-up) of hepatitis B viral load. Causal mediation analyses of survival outcome with multiple mediators are developed for additive hazard and proportional hazard and probit models with utility demonstrated in a hepatitis study.

Semiparametric temporal process regression of survival-out-of-hospital.

PubMed

Zhan, Tianyu; Schaubel, Douglas E

2018-05-23

The recurrent/terminal event data structure has undergone considerable methodological development in the last 10-15 years. An example of the data structure that has arisen with increasing frequency involves the recurrent event being hospitalization and the terminal event being death. We consider the response Survival-Out-of-Hospital, defined as a temporal process (indicator function) taking the value 1 when the subject is currently alive and not hospitalized, and 0 otherwise. Survival-Out-of-Hospital is a useful alternative strategy for the analysis of hospitalization/survival in the chronic disease setting, with the response variate representing a refinement to survival time through the incorporation of an objective quality-of-life component. The semiparametric model we consider assumes multiplicative covariate effects and leaves unspecified the baseline probability of being alive-and-out-of-hospital. Using zero-mean estimating equations, the proposed regression parameter estimator can be computed without estimating the unspecified baseline probability process, although baseline probabilities can subsequently be estimated for any time point within the support of the censoring distribution. We demonstrate that the regression parameter estimator is asymptotically normal, and that the baseline probability function estimator converges to a Gaussian process. Simulation studies are performed to show that our estimating procedures have satisfactory finite sample performances. The proposed methods are applied to the Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study (DOPPS), an international end-stage renal disease study.

Colonization dynamic of various crop residues by Fusarium graminearum monitored through real-time PCR measurements.

PubMed

Leplat, J; Heraud, C; Gautheron, E; Mangin, P; Falchetto, L; Steinberg, C

2016-11-01

To evaluate the effect of the type of crop residues on the colonization dynamic of Fusarium graminearum in soil. The ability of F. graminearum to survive in the presence of various crop residues was assessed on Petri dishes and in microcosms. These microcosms comprised soil that had or had not been previously disinfested with or without amendment with various crop residues. The colonization dynamic of F. graminearum was monitored through real-time PCR. Fusarium graminearum development was higher in disinfested soil than in non-disinfested one. The fungal growth was enhanced to various extents according to the type of crop residues, except for mustard residues which inhibited it. The biochemical and physical properties of the residues were likely to account for the differences in the survival of F. graminearum. Fusarium graminearum is a poor competitor in soil but it can use maize, wheat, and rape residues to ensure its survival. Conversely alfalfa, which is assimilated by micro-organisms very easily, avoids long-lasting survival of the fungus. And finally, mustard producing glucosinolates could be used as an intermediate crop to reduce the inoculum amount. This study is contributing to the knowledge about F. graminearum saprotophic abilities and proposes interesting paths to limit its survival in soil. © 2016 The Society for Applied Microbiology.

A subset of skin tumor modifier loci determines survival time of tumor-bearing mice

PubMed Central

Nagase, Hiroki; Mao, Jian-Hua; Balmain, Allan

1999-01-01

Studies of mouse models of human cancer have established the existence of multiple tumor modifiers that influence parameters of cancer susceptibility such as tumor multiplicity, tumor size, or the probability of malignant progression. We have carried out an analysis of skin tumor susceptibility in interspecific Mus musculus/Mus spretus hybrid mice and have identified another seven loci showing either significant (six loci) or suggestive (one locus) linkage to tumor susceptibility or resistance. A specific search was carried out for skin tumor modifier loci associated with time of survival after development of a malignant tumor. A combination of resistance alleles at three markers [D6Mit15 (Skts12), D7Mit12 (Skts2), and D17Mit7 (Skts10)], all of which are close to or the same as loci associated with carcinoma incidence and/or papilloma multiplicity, is significantly associated with increased survival of mice with carcinomas, whereas the reverse combination of susceptibility alleles is significantly linked to early mortality caused by rapid carcinoma growth (χ2 = 25.22; P = 5.1 × 10−8). These data indicate that host genetic factors may be used to predict carcinoma growth rate and/or survival of individual backcross mice exposed to the same carcinogenic stimulus and suggest that mouse models may provide an approach to the identification of genetic modifiers of cancer survival in humans. PMID:10611333

75 FR 44267 - Government-Owned Inventions; Availability for Licensing

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-07-28

... of federally-funded research and development. Foreign patent applications are filed on selected... Clinical Research Description of Invention: Available for licensing is software that can provide prognostic... particular genotype has a significant association with survival time for an [[Page 44268

Escherichia coli inactivation kinetics in anaerobic digestion of dairy manure under moderate, mesophilic and thermophilic temperatures

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Batch anaerobic digestion experiments using dairy manure as feedstocks were performed at moderate (25°C), mesophilic (37°C), and thermophilic (52.5°C) temperatures to understand E. coli, an indicator organism for pathogens, inactivation in dairy manure. Incubation periods at 25, 37, and 52.5°C, were 61, 41, and 28 days respectively. Results were used to develop models for predicting E. coli inactivation and survival in anaerobic digestion. For modeling we used the decay of E. coli at each temperature to calculate the first-order inactivation rate coefficients, and these rates were used to formulate the time - temperature - E. coli survival relationships. We found the inactivation rate coefficient at 52.5°C was 17 and 15 times larger than the inactivation rate coefficients at 25 and 37°C, respectively. Decimal reduction times (D10; time to achieve one log removal) at 25, 37, and 52.5°C, were 9 -10, 7 - 8 days, and < 1 day, respectively. The Arrhenius correlation between inactivation rate coefficients and temperatures over the range 25 -52.5°C was developed to understand the impacts of temperature on E. coli inactivation rate. Using this correlation, the time - temperature - E. coli survival relationships were derived. Besides E. coli inactivation, impacts of temperature on biogas production, methane content, pH change, ORP, and solid reduction were also studied. At higher temperatures, biogas production and methane content was greater than that at low temperatures. While at thermophilic temperature pH was increased, at mesophilic and moderate temperatures pH were reduced over the incubation period. These results can be used to understand pathogen inactivation during anaerobic digestion of dairy manure, and impacts of temperatures on performance of anaerobic digesters treating dairy manure. PMID:21906374

Survival analysis: Part I — analysis of time-to-event

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Length of time is a variable often encountered during data analysis. Survival analysis provides simple, intuitive results concerning time-to-event for events of interest, which are not confined to death. This review introduces methods of analyzing time-to-event. The Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, log-rank test, and Cox proportional hazards regression modeling method are described with examples of hypothetical data. PMID:29768911

Toward a Probabilistic Phenological Model for Wheat Growing Degree Days (GDD)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahmani, E.; Hense, A.

2017-12-01

Are there deterministic relations between phenological and climate parameters? The answer is surely `No'. This answer motivated us to solve the problem through probabilistic theories. Thus, we developed a probabilistic phenological model which has the advantage of giving additional information in terms of uncertainty. To that aim, we turned to a statistical analysis named survival analysis. Survival analysis deals with death in biological organisms and failure in mechanical systems. In survival analysis literature, death or failure is considered as an event. By event, in this research we mean ripening date of wheat. We will assume only one event in this special case. By time, we mean the growing duration from sowing to ripening as lifetime for wheat which is a function of GDD. To be more precise we will try to perform the probabilistic forecast for wheat ripening. The probability value will change between 0 and 1. Here, the survivor function gives the probability that the not ripened wheat survives longer than a specific time or will survive to the end of its lifetime as a ripened crop. The survival function at each station is determined by fitting a normal distribution to the GDD as the function of growth duration. Verification of the models obtained is done using CRPS skill score (CRPSS). The positive values of CRPSS indicate the large superiority of the probabilistic phonologic survival model to the deterministic models. These results demonstrate that considering uncertainties in modeling are beneficial, meaningful and necessary. We believe that probabilistic phenological models have the potential to help reduce the vulnerability of agricultural production systems to climate change thereby increasing food security.

Technique for rapid establishment of American lotus in remediation efforts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ryon, M. G.; Jett, R. T.; McCracken, M. K.

A technique for increasing the establishment rate of American lotus (Nelumbo lutea) and simplifying planting was developed as part of a pond remediation project. Lotus propagation techniques typically require scarification of the seed, germination in heated water, and planting in nursery containers. Then mature (~ 1 yr) nursery-grown stock is transferred to planting site or scarified seed are broadcast applied. Mature plants should grow more quickly, but can be sensitive to handling, require more time to plant, and cost more. Scarified seeds are easier to plant and inexpensive, but have a lag time in growth, can fail to germinate, andmore » can be difficult to site precisely. We developed an intermediate technique using small burlap bags that makes planting easier, provides greater germination success, and avoids lag time in growth. Data on survival and growth from experiments using mature stock, scarified seeds, and bag lotus demonstrate that bag lotus grow rapidly in a variety of conditions, have a high survival rate, can be processed and planted easily and quickly, and are very suitable for a variety of remediation projects« less

Combined doxorubicin and cyclophosphamide chemotherapy for nonresectable feline fibrosarcoma.

PubMed

Barber, L G; Sørenmo, K U; Cronin, K L; Shofer, F S

2000-01-01

A retrospective evaluation was performed on 12 cats with nonresectable, histopathologically confirmed fibrosarcomas that were treated with doxorubicin and cyclophosphamide chemotherapy. All of the tumors were located in sites potentially used for vaccination. Six cats had a greater than 50% decrease in gross tumor burden. However, the responses were not durable, with a median response duration of 125 days. All cats developed progressive disease. When animals that received other treatments after doxorubicin-based chemotherapy were eliminated from the analysis, median survival time was significantly longer for cats that responded to chemotherapy compared with the median survival time for nonresponders (242 and 83 days, respectively). These findings may serve as a basis for further evaluating the role of chemotherapy in the treatment of vaccine-associated sarcomas.

Effects of smolt release timing and size on the survival of hatchery-origin coho salmon in the Strait of Georgia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Irvine, J. R.; O'Neill, M.; Godbout, L.; Schnute, J.

2013-08-01

Altering release sizes and timings of coho salmon smolts from hatcheries in the Strait of Georgia will not reverse the precipitous survival declines of the past three decades. We modeled the effects on survival of ocean entry year, mean smolt size (weight), and release day. Ocean entry year was by far the most important. During 1979-2006, smolt to adult survivals declined similarly for hatchery and wild coho salmon, although wild salmon consistently survived at higher rates. Best models differed among hatcheries, implying location-specific differences in the optimal size and timing of release. At four of five hatcheries, heavier smolts survived significantly better than lighter smolts. At one hatchery, a significant interaction between ocean entry year and smolt weight reflected an increased positive effect of weight later in the time series. At two Vancouver Island hatcheries, early release groups appeared to survive better than later releases in early years, while later release groups survived best in recent years. We recommend: (1) hatchery managers release coho salmon smolts throughout the outmigration period of higher surviving wild coho salmon smolts and (2) an experimental approach using hatcheries to evaluate density-dependent effects on coho salmon growth and survival.

A Validated Prediction Model for Overall Survival From Stage III Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: Toward Survival Prediction for Individual Patients.

PubMed

Oberije, Cary; De Ruysscher, Dirk; Houben, Ruud; van de Heuvel, Michel; Uyterlinde, Wilma; Deasy, Joseph O; Belderbos, Jose; Dingemans, Anne-Marie C; Rimner, Andreas; Din, Shaun; Lambin, Philippe

2015-07-15

Although patients with stage III non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) are homogeneous according to the TNM staging system, they form a heterogeneous group, which is reflected in the survival outcome. The increasing amount of information for an individual patient and the growing number of treatment options facilitate personalized treatment, but they also complicate treatment decision making. Decision support systems (DSS), which provide individualized prognostic information, can overcome this but are currently lacking. A DSS for stage III NSCLC requires the development and integration of multiple models. The current study takes the first step in this process by developing and validating a model that can provide physicians with a survival probability for an individual NSCLC patient. Data from 548 patients with stage III NSCLC were available to enable the development of a prediction model, using stratified Cox regression. Variables were selected by using a bootstrap procedure. Performance of the model was expressed as the c statistic, assessed internally and on 2 external data sets (n=174 and n=130). The final multivariate model, stratified for treatment, consisted of age, gender, World Health Organization performance status, overall treatment time, equivalent radiation dose, number of positive lymph node stations, and gross tumor volume. The bootstrapped c statistic was 0.62. The model could identify risk groups in external data sets. Nomograms were constructed to predict an individual patient's survival probability (www.predictcancer.org). The data set can be downloaded at https://www.cancerdata.org/10.1016/j.ijrobp.2015.02.048. The prediction model for overall survival of patients with stage III NSCLC highlights the importance of combining patient, clinical, and treatment variables. Nomograms were developed and validated. This tool could be used as a first building block for a decision support system. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Spatiotemporal variation in survival rates: implications for population dynamics of yellow-bellied marmots.

PubMed

Ozgul, Arpat; Armitage, Kenneth B; Blumstein, Daniel T; Oli, Madan K

2006-04-01

Spatiotemporal variation in age-specific survival rates can profoundly influence population dynamics, but few studies of vertebrates have thoroughly investigated both spatial and temporal variability in age-specific survival rates. We used 28 years (1976-2003) of capture-mark-recapture (CMR) data from 17 locations to parameterize an age-structured Cormack-Jolly-Seber model, and investigated spatial and temporal variation in age-specific annual survival rates of yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventris). Survival rates varied both spatially and temporally, with survival of younger animals exhibiting the highest degree of variation. Juvenile survival rates varied from 0.52 +/- 0.05 to 0.78 +/- 0.10 among sites and from 0.15 +/- 0.14 to 0.89 +/- 0.06 over time. Adult survival rates varied from 0.62 +/- 0.09 to 0.80 +/- 0.03 among sites, but did not vary significantly over time. We used reverse-time CMR models to estimate the realized population growth rate (lamda), and to investigate the influence of the observed variation in age-specific survival rates on lamda. The realized growth rate of the population closely covaried with, and was significantly influenced by, spatiotemporal variation in juvenile survival rate. High variability in juvenile survival rates over space and time clearly influenced the dynamics of our study population and is also likely to be an important determinant of the spatiotemporal variation in the population dynamics of other mammals with similar life history characteristics.

Supplemental ascorbate in the supportive treatment of cancer: Reevaluation of prolongation of survival times in terminal human cancer*

PubMed Central

Cameron, Ewan; Pauling, Linus

1978-01-01

A study has been made of the survival times of 100 terminal cancer patients who were given supplemental ascorbate, usually 10 g/day, as part of their routine management and 1000 matched controls, similar patients who had received the same treatment except for the ascorbate. The two sets of patients were in part the same as those used in our earlier study [Cameron, E. & Pauling, L. (1976) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 73, 3685-3689]. Tests confirm that the ascorbate-treated patients and the matched controls are representative subpopulations of the same population of “untreatable” patients. Survival times were measured not only from the date of “untreatability” but also from the precisely known date of first hospital attendance for the cancer that eventually reached the terminal stage. The ascorbate-treated patients were found to have a mean survival time about 300 days greater than that of the controls. Survival times greater than 1 yr after the date of untreatability were observed for 22% of the ascorbate-treated patients and for 0.4% of the controls. The mean survival time of these 22 ascorbate-treated patients is 2.4 yr after reaching the apparently terminal stage; 8 of the ascorbate-treated patients are still alive, with a mean survival time after untreatability of 3.5 yr. PMID:279931

Effects of capture and handling on survival of female northern pintails

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cox, R.R.; Afton, A.D.

1998-01-01

Identification of capture and handling procedures that influence survival of waterfowl has important research and management implications. We captured 347 female Northern Pintails (Anas acuta) using rocket nets, fitted them with harness (backpack-type) radio transmitters, and monitored their survival during the first 10 d following release. Females were 16 times more likely to die during the first 4 d of exposure than during days 5-10. Survival of females captured with small numbers of waterfowl (n < 172) was not related to holding time (time from capture until release), but survival of females captured with large numbers of waterfowl (n = 594) declined as holding time increased. Survival did not vary with age (immature or adult) or body condition (body mass adjusted for body size) of females. Survival was positively related to flight quality (scored as poor, moderate, or good) of females upon release; poor and moderate fliers were twice as likely to die as those scored in the next higher level of flight quality. Flight quality of females captured with small numbers of waterfowl was unrelated to holding time, but that of females captured with large numbers of waterfowl declined as holding time increased. In all cases where cause of mortalities could be determined (n = 12), we attributed proximate cause of death to predation. We recommend that holding time of ducks be minimized, particularly for those captured with large numbers of waterfowl in rocket nets.

Risk-adjusted survival for adults following in-hospital cardiac arrest by day of week and time of day: observational cohort study

PubMed Central

Robinson, Emily J; Power, Geraldine S; Nolan, Jerry; Soar, Jasmeet; Spearpoint, Ken; Gwinnutt, Carl; Rowan, Kathryn M

2016-01-01

Background Internationally, hospital survival is lower for patients admitted at weekends and at night. Data from the UK National Cardiac Arrest Audit (NCAA) indicate that crude hospital survival was worse after in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) at night versus day, and at weekends versus weekdays, despite similar frequency of events. Objective To describe IHCA demographics during three day/time periods—weekday daytime (Monday to Friday, 08:00 to 19:59), weekend daytime (Saturday and Sunday, 08:00 to 19:59) and night-time (Monday to Sunday, 20:00 to 07:59)—and to compare the associated rates of return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) for >20 min (ROSC>20 min) and survival to hospital discharge, adjusted for risk using previously developed NCAA risk models. To consider whether any observed difference could be attributed to differences in the case mix of patients resident in hospital and/or the administered care. Methods We performed a prospectively defined analysis of NCAA data from 27 700 patients aged ≥16 years receiving chest compressions and/or defibrillation and attended by a hospital-based resuscitation team in response to a resuscitation (2222) call in 146 UK acute hospitals. Results Risk-adjusted outcomes (OR (95% CI)) were worse (p<0.001) for both weekend daytime (ROSC>20 min 0.88 (0.81 to 0.95); hospital survival 0.72 (0.64 to 0.80)), and night-time (ROSC>20 min 0.72 (0.68 to 0.76); hospital survival 0.58 (0.54 to 0.63)) compared with weekday daytime. The effects were stronger for non-shockable than shockable rhythms, but there was no significant interaction between day/time of arrest and age, or day/time of arrest and arrest location. While many daytime IHCAs involved procedures, restricting the analyses to IHCAs in medical admissions with an arrest location of ward produced results that are broadly in line with the primary analyses. Conclusions IHCAs attended by the hospital-based resuscitation team during nights and weekends have substantially worse outcomes than during weekday daytimes. Organisational or care differences at night and weekends, rather than patient case mix, appear to be responsible. PMID:26658774

Risk-adjusted survival for adults following in-hospital cardiac arrest by day of week and time of day: observational cohort study.

PubMed

Robinson, Emily J; Smith, Gary B; Power, Geraldine S; Harrison, David A; Nolan, Jerry; Soar, Jasmeet; Spearpoint, Ken; Gwinnutt, Carl; Rowan, Kathryn M

2016-11-01

Internationally, hospital survival is lower for patients admitted at weekends and at night. Data from the UK National Cardiac Arrest Audit (NCAA) indicate that crude hospital survival was worse after in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) at night versus day, and at weekends versus weekdays, despite similar frequency of events. To describe IHCA demographics during three day/time periods-weekday daytime (Monday to Friday, 08:00 to 19:59), weekend daytime (Saturday and Sunday, 08:00 to 19:59) and night-time (Monday to Sunday, 20:00 to 07:59)-and to compare the associated rates of return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) for >20 min (ROSC>20 min) and survival to hospital discharge, adjusted for risk using previously developed NCAA risk models. To consider whether any observed difference could be attributed to differences in the case mix of patients resident in hospital and/or the administered care. We performed a prospectively defined analysis of NCAA data from 27 700 patients aged ≥16 years receiving chest compressions and/or defibrillation and attended by a hospital-based resuscitation team in response to a resuscitation (2222) call in 146 UK acute hospitals. Risk-adjusted outcomes (OR (95% CI)) were worse (p<0.001) for both weekend daytime (ROSC>20 min 0.88 (0.81 to 0.95); hospital survival 0.72 (0.64 to 0.80)), and night-time (ROSC>20 min 0.72 (0.68 to 0.76); hospital survival 0.58 (0.54 to 0.63)) compared with weekday daytime. The effects were stronger for non-shockable than shockable rhythms, but there was no significant interaction between day/time of arrest and age, or day/time of arrest and arrest location. While many daytime IHCAs involved procedures, restricting the analyses to IHCAs in medical admissions with an arrest location of ward produced results that are broadly in line with the primary analyses. IHCAs attended by the hospital-based resuscitation team during nights and weekends have substantially worse outcomes than during weekday daytimes. Organisational or care differences at night and weekends, rather than patient case mix, appear to be responsible. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Survival and recovery rates of American woodcock banded in Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krementz, David G.; Hines, James E.; Luukkonen, David R.

2003-01-01

American woodcock (Scolopax minor) population indices have declined since U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) monitoring began in 1968. Management to stop and/or reverse this population trend has been hampered by the lack of recent information on woodcock population parameters. Without recent information on survival rate trends, managers have had to assume that the recent declines in recruitment indices are the only parameter driving woodcock declines. Using program MARK, we estimated annual survival and recovery rates of adult and juvenile American woodcock, and estimated summer survival of local (young incapable of sustained flight) woodcock banded in Michigan between 1978 and 1998. We constructed a set of candidate models from a global model with age (local, juvenile, adult) and time (year)-dependent survival and recovery rates to no age or time-dependent survival and recovery rates. Five models were supported by the data, with all models suggesting that survival rates differed among age classes, and 4 models had survival rates that were constant over time. The fifth model suggested that juvenile and adult survival rates were linear on a logit scale over time. Survival rates averaged over likelihood-weighted model results were 0.8784 +/- 0.1048 (SE) for locals, 0.2646 +/- 0.0423 (SE) for juveniles, and 0.4898 +/- 0.0329 (SE) for adults. Weighted average recovery rates were 0.0326 +/- 0.0053 (SE) for juveniles and 0.0313 +/- 0.0047 (SE) for adults. Estimated differences between our survival estimates and those from prior years were small, and our confidence around those differences was variable and uncertain. juvenile survival rates were low.

Rates of retinal nerve fiber layer thinning in glaucoma suspect eyes

PubMed Central

Miki, Atsuya; Medeiros, Felipe A.; Weinreb, Robert N.; Jain, Sonia; He, Feng; Sharpsten, Lucie; Khachatryan, Naira; Hammel, Na’ama; Liebmann, Jeffrey M.; Girkin, Christopher A.; Sample, Pamela A.; Zangwill, Linda M.

2015-01-01

Purpose To compare the rates of retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) loss in patients suspect of having glaucoma who developed visual field damage (VFD) to those who did not develop VFD, and to determine whether the rate of RNFL loss can be used to predict who will develop VFD.. Design Prospective observational cohort study Participants Glaucoma suspects, defined as having glaucomatous optic neuropathy or ocular hypertension (Intraocular pressure (IOP)>21 mmHg) without repeatable VFD at baseline from the Diagnostic Innovations in Glaucoma Study, and the African Descent and Glaucoma Evaluation Study. Methods Global and quadrant RNFL thickness (RNFLT) were measured with the Spectralis spectral-domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT). VFD was defined as having 3 consecutive abnormal visual fields. The rate of RNFL loss in eyes developing VFD was compared with eyes not developing VFD using multivariable linear mixed-effects models. A joint longitudinal survival model utilized the estimated RNFLT slope to predict the risk of developing VFD, while adjusting for potential confounding variables. Main Outcome Measures The rate of RNFL thinning and the probability of developing VFD. Results Four hundred and fifty-four eyes of 294 glaucoma suspects were included. The average number of SD-OCT examinations was 4.6 (range, 2–9) with median follow-up time of 2.2 (0.4–4.1) years. Forty eyes (8.8%) developed VFD. The estimated mean rate of global RNFL loss was significantly faster in eyes developing VFD compared with eyes that did not (−2.02μm/year vs. −0.82μm/year, P<0.001). The joint longitudinal survival model showed that each 1μm/year faster rate of global RNFL loss corresponded to a 2.05 times higher risk of developing VFD (Hazards Ratio (HR)=2.05, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.14–3.71; p=0.017). Conclusions The rate of global RNFL loss was more than twice as fast in eyes developing VFD compared with eyes that did not develop them. Joint longitudinal survival model showed that a 1μm/year faster rate of RNFLT loss corresponded to a 2.05 times higher risk of developing VFD. These results suggest that measuring the rate of SD-OCT RNFL loss may be a useful tool to help identify patients who are at a high risk of developing visual field loss. PMID:24629619

Survival of Salmonella enterica in poultry feed is strain dependent

PubMed Central

Andino, Ana; Pendleton, Sean; Zhang, Nan; Chen, Wei; Critzer, Faith; Hanning, Irene

2014-01-01

Feed components have low water activity, making bacterial survival difficult. The mechanisms of Salmonella survival in feed and subsequent colonization of poultry are unknown. The purpose of this research was to compare the ability of Salmonella serovars and strains to survive in broiler feed and to evaluate molecular mechanisms associated with survival and colonization by measuring the expression of genes associated with colonization (hilA, invA) and survival via fatty acid synthesis (cfa, fabA, fabB, fabD). Feed was inoculated with 1 of 15 strains of Salmonella enterica consisting of 11 serovars (Typhimurium, Enteriditis, Kentucky, Seftenburg, Heidelberg, Mbandanka, Newport, Bairely, Javiana, Montevideo, and Infantis). To inoculate feed, cultures were suspended in PBS and survival was evaluated by plating samples onto XLT4 agar plates at specific time points (0 h, 4 h, 8 h, 24 h, 4 d, and 7 d). To evaluate gene expression, RNA was extracted from the samples at the specific time points (0, 4, 8, and 24 h) and gene expression measured with real-time PCR. The largest reduction in Salmonella occurred at the first and third sampling time points (4 h and 4 d) with the average reductions being 1.9 and 1.6 log cfu per g, respectively. For the remaining time points (8 h, 24 h, and 7 d), the average reduction was less than 1 log cfu per g (0.6, 0.4, and 0.6, respectively). Most strains upregulated cfa (cyclopropane fatty acid synthesis) within 8 h, which would modify the fluidity of the cell wall to aid in survival. There was a weak negative correlation between survival and virulence gene expression indicating downregulation to focus energy on other gene expression efforts such as survival-related genes. These data indicate the ability of strains to survive over time in poultry feed was strain dependent and that upregulation of cyclopropane fatty acid synthesis and downregulation of virulence genes were associated with a response to desiccation stress. PMID:24570467

Survival of Salmonella enterica in poultry feed is strain dependent.

PubMed

Andino, Ana; Pendleton, Sean; Zhang, Nan; Chen, Wei; Critzer, Faith; Hanning, Irene

2014-02-01

Feed components have low water activity, making bacterial survival difficult. The mechanisms of Salmonella survival in feed and subsequent colonization of poultry are unknown. The purpose of this research was to compare the ability of Salmonella serovars and strains to survive in broiler feed and to evaluate molecular mechanisms associated with survival and colonization by measuring the expression of genes associated with colonization (hilA, invA) and survival via fatty acid synthesis (cfa, fabA, fabB, fabD). Feed was inoculated with 1 of 15 strains of Salmonella enterica consisting of 11 serovars (Typhimurium, Enteriditis, Kentucky, Seftenburg, Heidelberg, Mbandanka, Newport, Bairely, Javiana, Montevideo, and Infantis). To inoculate feed, cultures were suspended in PBS and survival was evaluated by plating samples onto XLT4 agar plates at specific time points (0 h, 4 h, 8 h, 24 h, 4 d, and 7 d). To evaluate gene expression, RNA was extracted from the samples at the specific time points (0, 4, 8, and 24 h) and gene expression measured with real-time PCR. The largest reduction in Salmonella occurred at the first and third sampling time points (4 h and 4 d) with the average reductions being 1.9 and 1.6 log cfu per g, respectively. For the remaining time points (8 h, 24 h, and 7 d), the average reduction was less than 1 log cfu per g (0.6, 0.4, and 0.6, respectively). Most strains upregulated cfa (cyclopropane fatty acid synthesis) within 8 h, which would modify the fluidity of the cell wall to aid in survival. There was a weak negative correlation between survival and virulence gene expression indicating downregulation to focus energy on other gene expression efforts such as survival-related genes. These data indicate the ability of strains to survive over time in poultry feed was strain dependent and that upregulation of cyclopropane fatty acid synthesis and downregulation of virulence genes were associated with a response to desiccation stress.

["That flesh, pink and perishable": analysis of disease-free survival analysis in breast cancer in Gipuzkoa (Spain) in the presence of competing risks].

PubMed

Martínez-Camblor, Pablo; Larrañaga, Nerea; Sarasqueta, Cristina; Mitxelena, María José; Basterretxea, Mikel

2009-01-01

To analyze time of disease-free survival and relative survival in women diagnosed with breast cancer in the province of Gipuzkoa within the context of competing risks by assessing differences between the direct use of the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the multiple decrement method on the one hand, and relative survival on the other. All registered breast cancer cases in Gipuzkoa in 1995 and 1996 with stages other than stage IV were included. An 8-year follow-up for recurrence and a 10-year follow-up for survival were performed. Time of disease-free survival was studied by the multiple decrement model. Observed survival and survival corrected by the expected mortality in the population (relative survival) were also studied. Estimation of the probability of recurrence at 8 years with the multiple decrement method was 8.8% lower than that obtained with the Kaplan-Meier method. The difference between the observed and relative survival rates at 10 years was 10.8%. Both results show how, in this case, the Kaplan-Meier estimator overestimates both the probability of recurrence and that of mortality from the disease. Two issues are often overlooked when performing survival analyses: firstly, because of the lack of independence between survival time and censoring time, the results obtained by the Kaplan-Meier estimator are uninterpretable; secondly, it is an incontrovertible fact that one way or another, everyone causes failures. In this approach, survival analyses must take into account the probability of failure in the general population of reference. The results obtained in this study show that superficial use of the Kaplan Meier estimator overestimates both the probability of recurrence and that of mortality caused by the disease.

Adjusting survival estimates for premature transmitter failure: A case study from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holbrook, Christopher M.; Perry, Russell W.; Brandes, Patricia L.; Adams, Noah S.

2013-01-01

In telemetry studies, premature tag failure causes negative bias in fish survival estimates because tag failure is interpreted as fish mortality. We used mark-recapture modeling to adjust estimates of fish survival for a previous study where premature tag failure was documented. High rates of tag failure occurred during the Vernalis Adaptive Management Plan’s (VAMP) 2008 study to estimate survival of fall-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) during migration through the San Joaquin River and Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California. Due to a high rate of tag failure, the observed travel time distribution was likely negatively biased, resulting in an underestimate of tag survival probability in this study. Consequently, the bias-adjustment method resulted in only a small increase in estimated fish survival when the observed travel time distribution was used to estimate the probability of tag survival. Since the bias-adjustment failed to remove bias, we used historical travel time data and conducted a sensitivity analysis to examine how fish survival might have varied across a range of tag survival probabilities. Our analysis suggested that fish survival estimates were low (95% confidence bounds range from 0.052 to 0.227) over a wide range of plausible tag survival probabilities (0.48–1.00), and this finding is consistent with other studies in this system. When tags fail at a high rate, available methods to adjust for the bias may perform poorly. Our example highlights the importance of evaluating the tag life assumption during survival studies, and presents a simple framework for evaluating adjusted survival estimates when auxiliary travel time data are available.

Using Concurrent Cardiovascular Information to Augment Survival Time Data for Evaluating Orthostatic Tilt Test Performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feiveson, Alan H.; Fiedler, James; Lee, Stuart M. C.; Koslovsky, Matthew D.; Stenger, Michael B.; Platts, Steven H.

2018-01-01

Head-up tilt (HUT) tests often are used in research to measure orthostatic intolerance (OI) (inability to appropriately control blood pressure while upright) in clinical populations and otherwise healthy individuals after interventions. Post-space flight orthostatic intolerance is a well-known phenomenon, and countermeasures to its development has been an active area of research at NASA. In the NASA HUT protocol, subjects lie horizontally on an automatic tilt table for baseline measurements before being raised to 80deg head-up tilt for a defined period of time or until signs or symptoms of presyncope ensues (light-headedness, nausea, dizziness, sweating, weakness or fainting). Multiple measures are collected to evaluate the cardiovascular system's ability to respond appropriately to the orthostatic challenge. However if the intended duration of the HUT is short, the ability to detect changes in OI due to an intervention or its prevention by a countermeasure may be limited by a small number of failures to permit comparisons based on survival time alone. Thus, the time-trajectory of the cardiovascular data becomes an important additional source of information. In particular, we will show how various measures of trajectory variability can effectively augment survival analysis for the assessment of OI in a joint model when high censoring rates are present.

Assessing fish predation on migrating juvenile steelhead and a retrospective comparison to steelhead survival through the Priest Rapids Hydroelectric Project, Columbia River, Washington, 2009-11

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hardiman, Jill M.; Counihan, Timothy D.; Burgess, Dave S.; Simmons, Katrina E.; Holmberg, Glen S.; Rogala, Josh; Polacek, Rochelle

2012-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW) have been working with the Public Utility District No. 2 of Grant County, Washington (Grant PUD), to increase their understanding of predator-prey interactions in the Priest Rapids Hydroelectric Project (PRP), Columbia River, Washington. For this study, the PRP is defined as the area approximately 6 kilometers upstream of Wanapum Dam to the Priest Rapids Dam tailrace, 397.1 miles from the mouth of the Columbia River. Past year’s low survival numbers of juvenile steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) through Wanapum and Priest Rapids Dams has prompted Grant PUD, on behalf of the Priest Rapids Coordinating Committee, to focus research efforts on steelhead migration and potential causal mechanisms for low survival. Steelhead passage survival in 2009 was estimated at 0.944 through the Wanapum Development (dam and reservoir) and 0.881 through the Priest Rapids Development and for 2010, steelhead survival was 0.855 for Wanapum Development and 0.904 for Priest Rapids Development. The USGS and WDFW implemented field collection efforts in 2011 for northern pikeminnow (Ptychocheilus oregonensis), smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu), and walleye (Sander vitreus, formerly Stizostedion vitreum) and their diets in the PRP. For predator indexing, we collected 948 northern pikeminnow, 237 smallmouth bass, 18 walleye, and two largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides). The intent of this study was to provide standardized predation indices within individual reaches of the PRP to discern spatial variability in predation patterns. Furthermore, the results of the 2011 study were compared to results of a concurrent steelhead survival study. Our results do not indicate excessively high predation of Oncorhynchus spp. occurring by northern pikeminnow or smallmouth bass in any particular reach throughout the study area. Although we found Oncorhynchus spp. in the predator diets, the relative proportion was small. Predation index values in 2011 were highest in the Priest Rapids mid-reservoir reach for northern pikeminnow and smallmouth bass. Predation indices generally were high in the tailrace areas for northern pikeminnow, and high in the forebay areas for smallmouth bass. Steelhead survival in 2011 was consistently high throughout the study period and the PRP, although predation indices were relatively low, which suggests that fish predation did not significantly affect steelhead survival throughout the study area. Our efforts to correlate retrospective predation indices with survival estimates for 2009 and 2010 did provide some evidence for high predation occurring in some of the same reaches, which had low steelhead survival, such as the Priest Rapids tailrace in 2009. However, for 2010, our results indicated that the loss of salmonids to predation were more contradictory to the survival results, where predation indices were higher for reaches in the Priest Rapids Development than in the Wanapum Development. Establishing correlations between steelhead survival and observed predation indices for previous research years, in 2009 and 2010 was confounded by the lack of coordination of these two studies during the initial study design, implementation period for such an analysis. Future efforts to correlate steelhead survival with fish predation would benefit from efforts to better coordinate the studies with consistent study reaches, and better timing of concurrent efforts.

[Effects of relic microorganism B. sp. on development, gaseous exchange, spontaneous motor activity, stress resistance and survival of Drosophila melanogaster].

PubMed

Brushkov, A V; Bezrukov, V V; Griva, G I; Muradian, Kh K

2011-01-01

The effect of relic microorganism B. sp., living in severe environment of Siberian permafrost during thousands and millions of years, on development and stress resistance of Drosophila melanogaster has been studied. In manipulating with such objects with practically "eternal life span", molecular carriers of the unprecedented longevity potential and possibilities of their transmission to other biological objects should primarily be addressed. Here we discuss for the first time the influence of B. sp. application on development, survival, stress resistance and the gross physiological predictors of aging rate in D. melanogaster. To establish optimal and toxic doses, wide range of B. sp. concentrations were tested (1-500 million cells of B. sp. per 1 ml of the flies feeding medium). Surprisingly, no toxic effects of B. sp. could be registered even on such a "sensitive" model as the developing larvae. In fact, the rate of development, survival and body mass gradually increased with elevation of B. sp. concentration. The gain of higher body mass within shorter periods of development could indicate enhanced anabolic and/ or declined catabolic effects of B. sp. Higher motor activity and gaseous exchange rates were observed in imagoes developed on the mediums with B. sp. application. Survival of these flies at the heat shock (30 min at 38 degrees C) and ultraviolet irradiation (60 min, 50W UV lamp) was increased, indicating elevated stress resistance, apparently due to stimulation of DNA-repair and chaperone-mediated protection of macromolecules. Further research is clearly warranted to identify more efficient anti-stress and antiaging preparations and schemes of B. sp. application on models of laboratory mammals and human cell cultures.

Twenty five years long survival analysis of an individual shortleaf pine trees

Treesearch

Pradip Saud; Thomas B. Lynch; James M. Guldin

2016-01-01

A semi parametric cox proportion hazard model is preferred when censored data and survival time information is available (Kleinbaum and Klein 1996; Alison 2010). Censored data are observations that have incomplete information related to survival time or event time of interest. In repeated forest measurements, usually observations are either right censored or...

Survival time of the susceptible-infected-susceptible infection process on a graph.

PubMed

van de Bovenkamp, Ruud; Van Mieghem, Piet

2015-09-01

The survival time T is the longest time that a virus, a meme, or a failure can propagate in a network. Using the hitting time of the absorbing state in an uniformized embedded Markov chain of the continuous-time susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) Markov process, we derive an exact expression for the average survival time E[T] of a virus in the complete graph K_{N} and the star graph K_{1,N-1}. By using the survival time, instead of the average fraction of infected nodes, we propose a new method to approximate the SIS epidemic threshold τ_{c} that, at least for K_{N} and K_{1,N-1}, correctly scales with the number of nodes N and that is superior to the epidemic threshold τ_{c}^{(1)}=1/λ_{1} of the N-intertwined mean-field approximation, where λ_{1} is the spectral radius of the adjacency matrix of the graph G. Although this new approximation of the epidemic threshold offers a more intuitive understanding of the SIS process, it remains difficult to compare outbreaks in different graph types. For example, the survival in an arbitrary graph seems upper bounded by the complete graph and lower bounded by the star graph as a function of the normalized effective infection rate τ/τ_{c}^{(1)}. However, when the average fraction of infected nodes is used as a basis for comparison, the virus will survive in the star graph longer than in any other graph, making the star graph the worst-case graph instead of the complete graph. Finally, in non-Markovian SIS, the distribution of the spreading attempts over the infectious period of a node influences the survival time, even if the expected number of spreading attempts during an infectious period (the non-Markovian equivalent of the effective infection rate) is kept constant. Both early and late infection attempts lead to shorter survival times. Interestingly, just as in Markovian SIS, the survival times appear to be exponentially distributed, regardless of the infection and curing time distributions.

Chronic variable stress in fathers alters paternal and social behavior but not pup development in the biparental California mouse (Peromyscus californicus).

PubMed

Harris, Breanna N; de Jong, Trynke R; Yang, Vanessa; Saltzman, Wendy

2013-11-01

Stress and chronically elevated glucocorticoid levels have been shown to disrupt parental behavior in mothers; however, almost no studies have investigated corresponding effects in fathers. The present experiment tested the hypothesis that chronic variable stress inhibits paternal behavior and consequently alters pup development in the monogamous, biparental California mouse (Peromyscus californicus). First-time fathers were assigned to one of three experimental groups: chronic variable stress (CVS, n=8), separation control (SC, n=7), or unmanipulated control (UC, n=8). The CVS paradigm (3 stressors per day for 7 days) successfully stressed mice, as evidenced by increased baseline plasma corticosterone concentrations, increased adrenal mass, decreased thymus mass, and a decrease in body mass over time. CVS altered paternal and social behavior of fathers, but major differences were observed only on day 6 of the 7-day paradigm. At that time point, CVS fathers spent less time with their pairmate and pups, and more time autogrooming, as compared to UC fathers; SC fathers spent more time behaving paternally and grooming the female mate than CVS and UC fathers. Thus, CVS blocked the separation-induced increase in social behaviors observed in the SC fathers. Nonetheless, chronic stress in fathers did not appear to alter survival or development of their offspring: pups from the three experimental conditions did not differ in body mass gain over time, in the day of eye opening, or in basal or post-stress corticosterone levels. These results demonstrate that chronic stress can transiently disrupt paternal and social behavior in P. californicus fathers, but does not alter pup development or survival under controlled, non-challenging laboratory conditions. © 2013.

Chronic variable stress in fathers alters paternal and social behavior but not pup development in the biparental California mouse (Peromyscus californicus)

PubMed Central

Harris, Breanna N.; de Jong, Trynke R.; Yang, Vanessa; Saltzman, Wendy

2013-01-01

Stress and chronically elevated glucocorticoid levels have been shown to disrupt parental behavior in mothers; however, almost no studies have investigated corresponding effects in fathers. The present experiment tested the hypothesis that chronic variable stress inhibits paternal behavior and consequently alters pup development in the monogamous, biparental California mouse (Peromyscus californicus). First-time fathers were assigned to one of three experimental groups: chronic variable stress (CVS, n=8), separation control (SC, n=7), or unmanipulated control (UC, n=8). The CVS paradigm (3 stressors per day for 7 days) successfully stressed mice, as evidenced by increased baseline plasma corticosterone concentrations, increased adrenal mass, decreased thymus mass, and a decrease in body mass over time. CVS altered paternal and social behavior of fathers, but major differences were observed only on day 6 of the 7-day paradigm. At that time point, CVS fathers spent less time with their pairmate and pups, and more time autogrooming, as compared to UC fathers; SC fathers spent more time behaving paternally and grooming the female mate than CVS and UC fathers. Thus, CVS blocked the separation-induced increase in social behaviors observed in the SC fathers. Nonetheless, chronic stress in fathers did not appear to alter survival or development of their offspring: pups from the three experimental conditions did not differ in body mass gain over time, in day of eye opening, or in basal or post-stress corticosterone levels. These results demonstrate that chronic stress can transiently disrupt paternal and social behavior in P. californicus fathers, but does not alter pup development or survival under controlled, nonchallenging laboratory conditions. PMID:24157379

Biological behavior of oral and perioral mast cell tumors in dogs: 44 cases (1996-2006).

PubMed

Hillman, Lorin A; Garrett, Laura D; de Lorimier, Louis-Philippe; Charney, Sarah C; Borst, Luke B; Fan, Timothy M

2010-10-15

To describe clinical outcome of dogs with mast cell tumors (MCTs) arising from the oral mucosa, oral mucocutaneous junction, or perioral region of the muzzle and evaluate the potential role of the chemokine receptor type 7 (CCR7) in the biological behavior of these tumors. Retrospective case series. 44 dogs with MCTs of the oral mucosa (n=14), oral mucocutaneous junction (19), or perioral region of the muzzle (11). Medical records were reviewed for information on signalment, regional metastasis, treatments, cause of death, and survival time. Twenty of the 44 cases had stored histologic samples available for immunohistochemical staining for CCR7 For all dogs, median survival time was 52 months. Twenty-six (59%) dogs had regional lymph node metastasis on admission. Median survival time for dogs with lymph node metastasis was 14 months, whereas median survival time was not reached for dogs without lymph node metastasis. Intensity of staining for CCR7 was not significantly associated with the presence of regional lymph node metastasis or survival time. Results suggested that in dogs with MCTs arising from the oral mucosa, oral mucocutaneous junction, or perioral region of the muzzle, the presence of regional lymph node metastasis at the time of diagnosis was a negative prognostic factor. However, prolonged survival times could be achieved with treatment. In addition, CCR7 expression in the primary tumor was not significantly associated with the presence of regional lymph node metastasis or survival time.

[Size-based classification of choroidal melanoma and its role in treatment decision-making].

PubMed

Brovkina, A F; Stoyukhina, A S; Chesalin, I P

2016-01-01

To specify indications for brachytherapy (BT) in large choroidal melanoma (CM) so that tumor size and vital prognosis were considered. We retrospectively analyzed data from 161 CM patients who were treated with BT and followed-up at either the Ophthalmological Clinical Hospital or some other Moscow medical facility and also registered by the City Cancer Registry. Patient age at the time of starting the treatment lied within the range of 17 to 84 years and averaged 56.89±1.93 years. During the follow-up period (12-275 months, 95.65±8.4 months on average) hematogenous metastases were found in 23 (14.29%) patients. Liver involvement was diagnosed in 8 patients within the average of 23.13 months after treatment. Their average survival time was 11 months. A total of 142 patients were followed up for more than 36 months (104.87 months on average). Of them, 15 patients were diagnosed with metastatic CM within 37-167 months after BT (80.27 months on average). Despite metastatic disease they generally survived 2.8 time longer than the aforementioned patients (30.8 months). The cases were then divided into 3 groups according to J. Shields classification of CM. Small melanoma patients did not develop metastases within 99.96±12.47 months of follow-up. In medium melanomas, as many as 13.35% of cases were metastatic (with the average survival time of 20.66 months); in large melanomas - 19.51% (with the average survival time of 13.5 months). Treatment modality and follow-up periods being the same (7-8 years after BT), larger choroidal melanomas has been shown to be associated with higher risk of hematogenous metastases. For local treatment to be successive, the maximal diameter of the tumor should not exceed 10 mm. Every fifth patient of those with CM larger than 15 mm is likely to develop hematogenous metastases. The results obtained indicate the necessity of decreasing the size thresholds for choroidal melanomas, small and medium in the first place.

Impact of Prophylactic Cranial Irradiation Timing on Brain Relapse Rates in Patients With Stage IIIB Non-Small-Cell Lung Carcinoma Treated With Two Different Chemoradiotherapy Regimens

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Topkan, Erkan, E-mail: docdretopkan@gmail.com; Parlak, Cem; Kotek, Ayse

2012-07-15

Purpose: To retrospectively assess the influence of prophylactic cranial irradiation (PCI) timing on brain relapse rates in patients treated with two different chemoradiotherapy (CRT) regimens for Stage IIIB non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Methods and Materials: A cohort of 134 patients, with Stage IIIB NSCLC in recursive partitioning analysis Group 1, was treated with PCI (30 Gy at 2 Gy/fr) following one of two CRT regimens. Regimen 1 (n = 58) consisted of three cycles of induction chemotherapy (ICT) followed by concurrent CRT (C-CRT). Regimen 2 (n = 76) consisted of immediate C-CRT during thoracic radiotherapy. Results: At a median follow-upmore » of 27.6 months (range, 7.2-40.4), 65 patients were alive. Median, progression-free, and brain metastasis-free survival (BMFS) times for the whole study cohort were 23.4, 15.4, and 23.0 months, respectively. Median survival time and the 3-year survival rate for regimens 1 and 2 were 19.3 vs. 26.1 months (p = 0.001) and 14.4% vs. 34.4% (p < .001), respectively. Median time from the initiation of primary treatment to PCI was 123.2 (range, 97-161) and 63.4 (range, 55-74) days for regimens 1 and 2, respectively (p < 0.001). Overall, 11 (8.2%) patients developed brain metastasis (BM) during the follow-up period: 8 (13.8%) in regimen 1 and 3 (3.9%) in regimen 2 (p = 0.03). Only 3 (2.2%) patients developed BM at the site of first failure, and for 2 of them, it was also the sole site of recurrence. Median BMFS for regimens 1 and 2 were 17.4 (13.5-21.3) vs. 26.0 (22.9-29.1 months), respectively (p < 0.001). Conclusion: These results suggest that in Stage IIIB NSCLC patients treated with PCI, lower BM incidence and longer survival rates result from immediate C-CRT rather than ITC-first regimens. This indicates the benefit of earlier PCI use without delay because of induction protocols.« less

Talking to Your Child about Puberty

MedlinePlus

... should know about puberty ahead of time. Many kids receive some sex education at school. Often, though, the lessons are ... January 2015 More on this topic for: Parents Kids Teens Sexual Development Questions and Answers About Sex A Parent's Guide to Surviving the Teen Years ...

Surviving an Information Systems Conversion.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Neel, Don

1999-01-01

Prompted by the "millennium bug," many school districts are in the process of replacing non-Y2K-compliant information systems. Planners should establish a committee to develop performance criteria and select the winning proposal, estimate time requirements, and schedule retraining during low-activity periods. (MLH)

Understanding survival analysis: Kaplan-Meier estimate.

PubMed

Goel, Manish Kumar; Khanna, Pardeep; Kishore, Jugal

2010-10-01

Kaplan-Meier estimate is one of the best options to be used to measure the fraction of subjects living for a certain amount of time after treatment. In clinical trials or community trials, the effect of an intervention is assessed by measuring the number of subjects survived or saved after that intervention over a period of time. The time starting from a defined point to the occurrence of a given event, for example death is called as survival time and the analysis of group data as survival analysis. This can be affected by subjects under study that are uncooperative and refused to be remained in the study or when some of the subjects may not experience the event or death before the end of the study, although they would have experienced or died if observation continued, or we lose touch with them midway in the study. We label these situations as censored observations. The Kaplan-Meier estimate is the simplest way of computing the survival over time in spite of all these difficulties associated with subjects or situations. The survival curve can be created assuming various situations. It involves computing of probabilities of occurrence of event at a certain point of time and multiplying these successive probabilities by any earlier computed probabilities to get the final estimate. This can be calculated for two groups of subjects and also their statistical difference in the survivals. This can be used in Ayurveda research when they are comparing two drugs and looking for survival of subjects.

Survival of Plasmodium falciparum in human blood during refrigeration.

PubMed

Chattopadhyay, Rana; Majam, Victoria F; Kumar, Sanjai

2011-03-01

Transfusion-transmitted malaria remains a serious concern for blood safety. Viable Plasmodium parasites must be present in human blood to transmit malaria, but their survival in blood over time stored under refrigeration has never been carefully investigated. We spiked leukoreduced normal human blood with Plasmodium falciparum (3D7 strain) asexual ring-stage parasites and stored it at 4 °C for 28 days, taking samples at different days intervals. We evaluated the samples for parasitemia by blood film microscopy and by culturing red blood cells (RBCs) to allow further development of parasites. We observed a significant reduction in parasitemia (0.5% vs. 0.12%) after only 1 day in storage at 4 °C. Thereafter, reduction in parasitemia was relatively gradual. Microscopically detectable parasites were present even after 28 days of storage. However, after storing for more than 14 days at 4 °C, parasites no longer replicated when cultured in vitro. Although the storage of asexual blood-stage P. falciparum parasites at 4 °C is detrimental to their survival (a 7.1-fold reduction in parasitemia after 14 days in storage), parasites remained microscopically detectable for 28 days, the end time point of our study. Further in vitro and in vivo studies will be needed to confirm loss of viability of P. falciparum after 14 days in storage, but our initial efforts repeatedly failed to show maturation and development of the parasites in cultured RBCs after that time. © 2010 American Association of Blood Banks.

Functional Response and Matrix Population Model of Podisus nigrispinus (Dallas, 1851) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) fed on Chrysomya putoria (Wiedemann, 1818) (Diptera: Calliphoridae) as Alternative Prey.

PubMed

Botteon, V W; Neves, J A; Godoy, W A C

2017-04-01

Among the predators with high potential for use in biological control, the species of the genus Podisus (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) have received special attention for laboratory rearing, since they feed on different agricultural and forestry pest insects. However, the type of diet offered to insects in the laboratory may affect the viability of populations, expressed essentially by demographic parameters such as survival and fecundity. This study assessed demographic and development aspects in experimental populations of Podisus nigrispinus (Dallas, 1851) fed on larvae of Chrysomya putoria (Wiedemann, 1818) (Diptera: Calliphoridae) as an alternative prey. The demographic parameters fecundity and survival were investigated in life stages of P. nigrispinus with ecological modeling, by applying the Leslie matrix population model, producing histograms of life stages in successive time steps. The functional response of P. nigrispinus was also investigated on seven densities of C. putoria third-instar larvae at 24 and 48 h. The survival of predators that reached adulthood was 65% and the development time from egg to adult was 23.15 days. The predator showed a type III functional response for consumption of C. putoria at 24 and 48 h. The Leslie-matrix simulation of the age structure provided perpetuation of the predator population over time steps and the prey proved to be feasible for use in rearing and maintenance of P. nigrispinus in the laboratory.

Structural design optimization with survivability dependent constraints application: Primary wing box of a multi-role fighter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dolvin, Douglas J.

1992-01-01

The superior survivability of a multirole fighter is dependent upon balanced integration of technologies for reduced vulnerability and susceptability. The objective is to develop a methodology for structural design optimization with survivability dependent constraints. The design criteria for optimization will be survivability in a tactical laser environment. The following analyses are studied to establish a dependent design relationship between structural weight and survivability: (1) develop a physically linked global design model of survivability variables; and (2) apply conventional constraints to quantify survivability dependent design. It was not possible to develop an exact approach which would include all aspects of survivability dependent design, therefore guidelines are offered for solving similar problems.

Time interval between endometrial biopsy and surgical staging for type I endometrial cancer: association between tumor characteristics and survival outcome.

PubMed

Matsuo, Koji; Opper, Neisha R; Ciccone, Marcia A; Garcia, Jocelyn; Tierney, Katherine E; Baba, Tsukasa; Muderspach, Laila I; Roman, Lynda D

2015-02-01

To examine whether wait time between endometrial biopsy and surgical staging correlates with tumor characteristics and affects survival outcomes in patients with type I endometrial cancer. A retrospective study was conducted to examine patients with grade 1 and 2 endometrioid adenocarcinoma diagnosed by preoperative endometrial biopsy who subsequently underwent hysterectomy-based surgical staging between 2000 and 2013. Patients who received neoadjuvant chemotherapy or hormonal treatment were excluded. Time interval and grade change between endometrial biopsy and hysterectomy were correlated to demographics and survival outcomes. Median wait time was 57 days (range 1-177 days) among 435 patients. Upgrading of the tumor to grade 3 in the hysterectomy specimen was seen in 4.7% of 321 tumors classified as grade 1 and 18.4% of 114 tumors classified as grade 2 on the endometrial biopsy, respectively. Wait time was not associated with grade change (P>.05). Controlling for age, ethnicity, body habitus, medical comorbidities, CA 125 level, and stage, multivariable analysis revealed that wait time was not associated with survival outcomes (5-year overall survival rates, wait time 1-14, 15-42, 43-84, and 85 days or more; 62.5%, 93.6%, 95.2%, and 100%, respectively, P>.05); however, grade 1 to 3 on the hysterectomy specimen remained as an independent prognosticator associated with decreased survival (5-year overall survival rates, grade 1 to 3 compared with grade change 1 to 1, 82.1% compared with 98.5%, P=.01). Among grade 1 preoperative biopsies, grade 1 to 3 was significantly associated with nonobesity (P=.039) and advanced stage (P=.019). Wait time for surgical staging was not associated with decreased survival outcome in patients with type I endometrial cancer.

Simulating the effects of fluctuating dissolved oxygen on growth, reproduction, and survival of fish and shrimp.

PubMed

Miller Neilan, Rachael; Rose, Kenneth

2014-02-21

Individuals are commonly exposed to fluctuating levels of stressors, while most laboratory experiments focus on constant exposures. We develop and test a mathematical model for predicting the effects of low dissolved oxygen (hypoxia) on growth, reproduction, and survival using laboratory experiments on fish and shrimp. The exposure-effects model simulates the hourly reductions in growth and survival, and the reduction in reproduction (fecundity) at times of spawning, of an individual as it is exposed to constant or hourly fluctuating dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations. The model was applied to seven experiments involving fish and shrimp that included constant and fluctuating DO exposures, with constant exposures used for parameter estimation and the model then used to simulate the growth, reproduction, and survival in the fluctuating treatments. Cumulative effects on growth, reproduction, and survival were predicted well by the model, but the model did not replay the observed episodic low survival days. Further investigation should involve the role of acclimation, possible inclusion of repair effects in reproduction and survival, and the sensitivity of model predictions to the shape of the immediate effects function. Additional testing of the model with other taxa, different patterns of fluctuating exposures, and different stressors is needed to determine the model's generality and robustness. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Answering the Questions of Whether and When Learning Occurs: Using Discrete-Time Survival Analysis to Investigate the Ways in Which College Chemistry Students' Ideas about Structure-Property Relationships Evolve

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Underwood, Sonia M.; Reyes-Gastelum, David; Cooper, Melanie M.

2015-01-01

Longitudinal studies can provide significant insights into how students develop competence in a topic or subject area over time. However, there are many barriers, such as retention of students in the study and the complexity of data analysis, that make these studies rare. Here, we present how a statistical framework, discrete-time survival…

The history and development of NASA survival equipment.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Radnofsky, M. I.

1972-01-01

A research and development program on survival equipment was begun in early 1960 with the Mercury Program. The Mercury survival kit is discussed together with Gemini survival equipment, and Apollo I survival equipment. A study program is conducted to assess potential survival problems that may be associated with future space flights landing in polar waters. Survival kit requirements for applications on the Skylab program are also considered. Other investigations are concerned with the design of a global survival kit in connection with Space Shuttle missions.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Perry, Russell W.; Skalski, John R.

Wetlands in the Columbia River estuary are actively being restored by reconnecting these habitats to the estuary, making more wetland habitats available to rearing and migrating juvenile salmon. Concurrently, thousands of acoustically tagged juvenile salmonids are released into the Columbia River to estimate their survival as they migrate through the estuary. Here, we develop a release-recapture model that makes use of these tagged fish to measure the success of wetland restoration projects in terms of their contribution to populations of juvenile salmon. Specifically, our model estimates the fraction of the population that enter the wetland, survival within the wetland, andmore » the mean residence time of fish within the wetland. Furthermore, survival in mainstem Columbia River downstream of the wetland can be compared between fish that remained the mainstem and entered the wetland. These conditional survival estimates provide a means of testing whether the wetland improves the subsequent survival of juvenile salmon by fostering growth or improving their condition. Implementing such a study requires little additional cost because it takes advantage of fish already released to estimate survival through the estuary. Thus, such a study extracts the maximum information at minimum cost from research projects that typically cost millions of dollars annually.« less

Effects of immunization with the rNfa1 protein on experimental Naegleria fowleri-PAM mice.

PubMed

Lee, Y J; Kim, J H; Sohn, H J; Lee, J; Jung, S Y; Chwae, Y J; Kim, K; Park, S; Shin, H J

2011-07-01

Free-living Naegleria fowleri causes primary amoebic meningoencephalitis (PAM) in humans and animals. To examine the effect of immunization with Nfa1 protein on experimental murine PAM because of N. fowleri, BALB/c mice were intra-peritoneally or intra-nasally immunized with a recombinant Nfa1 protein. We analysed Nfa1-specific antibody and cytokine induction, and the mean survival time of infected mice. Mice immunized intra-peritoneally or intra-nasally with rNfa1 protein developed specific IgG, IgA and IgE antibodies; the IgG response was dominated by IgG1, followed by IgG2b, IgG2a and IgG3. High levels of the Th1 cytokine, IFN-γ, and the regulatory cytokine, IL-10, were also induced. The mean survival time of mice immunized intra-peritoneally with rNfa1 protein was prolonged compared with controls, (25.0 and 15.5 days, respectively). Similarly, the mean survival time of mice immunized intra-nasally with rNfa1 protein was 24.7 days, compared with 15.0 days for controls. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Meta-analysis for aggregated survival data with competing risks: a parametric approach using cumulative incidence functions.

PubMed

Bonofiglio, Federico; Beyersmann, Jan; Schumacher, Martin; Koller, Michael; Schwarzer, Guido

2016-09-01

Meta-analysis of a survival endpoint is typically based on the pooling of hazard ratios (HRs). If competing risks occur, the HRs may lose translation into changes of survival probability. The cumulative incidence functions (CIFs), the expected proportion of cause-specific events over time, re-connect the cause-specific hazards (CSHs) to the probability of each event type. We use CIF ratios to measure treatment effect on each event type. To retrieve information on aggregated, typically poorly reported, competing risks data, we assume constant CSHs. Next, we develop methods to pool CIF ratios across studies. The procedure computes pooled HRs alongside and checks the influence of follow-up time on the analysis. We apply the method to a medical example, showing that follow-up duration is relevant both for pooled cause-specific HRs and CIF ratios. Moreover, if all-cause hazard and follow-up time are large enough, CIF ratios may reveal additional information about the effect of treatment on the cumulative probability of each event type. Finally, to improve the usefulness of such analysis, better reporting of competing risks data is needed. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

IRRADIATION OF SCORPIONS OF THE SPECIES CENTRUROIDES LIMPIDUS WITH GAMMA RAYS (in Spanish)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mazzotti, L.; Rhode, R.H.; Lopez, F.

Although radiation studies have been done on other Arthropoda, mainly with the purpose of their eradication, little is known about the effect of gamma rays on scorpions. In this study, four groups of 15 scorpions each were irradiated with gamma rays varying in dosage from 4500 to 11,500 r. After a dose of approximates 4500 r, apparently normal physical activity and food intake were maintained. Longest survival time in this group was 105 days as compared with more than 8 months for the controls. The 8000-r dose produced immediate immobilization with subsequent development of sluggish movement. No food was takenmore » and longest surviva) time was 33 days. After 10,000 r all movement stopped, all deaths occurring before 17 days. After 11,500 r there was no survival beyond 7 days. The survival time for a control group of 100 scorpions was over 6 months in spite of the high mortality figure for these arachnids in captivity. The results indicate a very high vulnerability in scorpions of this species to gamma radiation as compared with arthropods of the class Insecta, which appear to show a much greater resistance. (BBB)« less

Retrospective study of canine nasal tumor treated with hypofractionated radiotherapy.

PubMed

Maruo, Takuya; Shida, Takuo; Fukuyama, Yasuhiro; Hosaka, Soshi; Noda, Masashi; Ito, Tetsuro; Sugiyama, Hiroki; Ishikawa, Takeshi; Madarame, Hiroo

2011-02-01

The object of this study was to evaluate hypofractionated multiportal field and two-portion (rostral and caudal portions divided by the eyelid) radiation therapy for canine nasal tumors. Sixty-three dogs underwent multiportal hypofractionated radiation therapy. The radiation field was divided into rostral and caudal portions by the eyelid. Treatments were performed four times for 57 dogs. The median irradiation dose/fraction was 8 Gy (range, 5-10 Gy); the median total dose was 32 Gy (10-40 Gy). Improvement of clinical symptoms was achieved in 53 (84.1%) of 63 cases. Median survival time was 197 days (range, 2-1,080 days). Median survival times with and without destruction of the cribriform plate before radiotherapy were 163 and 219 days, respectively. There was no significant difference between them. No other factors were related to survival according to a univariate analysis. All radiation side effects, except one, were grade I according to the VRTOG classification. It was not necessary to treat any dogs for skin side effects. One dog (1.6%) developed an oronasal fistula 1 year after completion of radiation therapy. This radiation protocol may be useful in reducing radiation side effects in dogs with cribriform plate destruction.

Resource allocation in neural networks for motor control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milton, J.; Cummins, J.; Gunnoe, J.; Tollefson, M.; Cabrera, J. L.; Ohira, T.

2006-03-01

Multiplicative noise plays an important part of a non-predictive control mechanism for stick balancing at the fingertip. However, intentionally-directed movements are also used in stick balancing, particularly by beginners. The interplay between intentional and non-predictive control mechanisms for stick balancing was assessed using two dual task paradigms: the subject was asked to either move one of their legs rhythmically or to imagine moving their leg while balancing a stick (55.4 cm, 35 g) at their fingertip. Performance was measured by determining the stick survival function, i.e. the fraction of trials (total >=25) for which the stick remained balanced at time t as a function of t. Performance was increased by concurrent rhythmic leg movements (50% survival time shifted from 8-9s to 15s in a typical subject). Imagined movements resulted in a similar improvement (50% survival time of 20s for the above subject) suggesting that this enhancement is not simply related to mechanical vibrations of the fingertip induced by leg movement. These observations emphasize the importance of the development of mathematical models for neural control of skilled motor movements that take into resource allocation of limited resources, such as intention.

Analyzing survival curves at a fixed point in time for paired and clustered right-censored data

PubMed Central

Su, Pei-Fang; Chi, Yunchan; Lee, Chun-Yi; Shyr, Yu; Liao, Yi-De

2018-01-01

In clinical trials, information about certain time points may be of interest in making decisions about treatment effectiveness. Rather than comparing entire survival curves, researchers can focus on the comparison at fixed time points that may have a clinical utility for patients. For two independent samples of right-censored data, Klein et al. (2007) compared survival probabilities at a fixed time point by studying a number of tests based on some transformations of the Kaplan-Meier estimators of the survival function. However, to compare the survival probabilities at a fixed time point for paired right-censored data or clustered right-censored data, their approach would need to be modified. In this paper, we extend the statistics to accommodate the possible within-paired correlation and within-clustered correlation, respectively. We use simulation studies to present comparative results. Finally, we illustrate the implementation of these methods using two real data sets. PMID:29456280

Cure rate model with interval censored data.

PubMed

Kim, Yang-Jin; Jhun, Myoungshic

2008-01-15

In cancer trials, a significant fraction of patients can be cured, that is, the disease is completely eliminated, so that it never recurs. In general, treatments are developed to both increase the patients' chances of being cured and prolong the survival time among non-cured patients. A cure rate model represents a combination of cure fraction and survival model, and can be applied to many clinical studies over several types of cancer. In this article, the cure rate model is considered in the interval censored data composed of two time points, which include the event time of interest. Interval censored data commonly occur in the studies of diseases that often progress without symptoms, requiring clinical evaluation for detection (Encyclopedia of Biostatistics. Wiley: New York, 1998; 2090-2095). In our study, an approximate likelihood approach suggested by Goetghebeur and Ryan (Biometrics 2000; 56:1139-1144) is used to derive the likelihood in interval censored data. In addition, a frailty model is introduced to characterize the association between the cure fraction and survival model. In particular, the positive association between the cure fraction and the survival time is incorporated by imposing a common normal frailty effect. The EM algorithm is used to estimate parameters and a multiple imputation based on the profile likelihood is adopted for variance estimation. The approach is applied to the smoking cessation study in which the event of interest is a smoking relapse and several covariates including an intensive care treatment are evaluated to be effective for both the occurrence of relapse and the non-smoking duration. Copyright (c) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Reversal of muscle atrophy by Zhimu and Huangbai herb pair via activation of IGF-1/Akt and autophagy signal in cancer cachexia.

PubMed

Zhuang, Pengwei; Zhang, Jinbao; Wang, Yan; Zhang, Mixia; Song, Lili; Lu, Zhiqiang; Zhang, Lu; Zhang, Fengqi; Wang, Jing; Zhang, Yanjun; Wei, Hongjun; Li, Hongyan

2016-03-01

Muscle atrophy is the prominent clinical feature of cancer-induced cachexia. Zhimu and Huangbai herb pair (ZBHP) has been used since ancient China times and have been phytochemically investigated for constituents that might cause anti-cancer, diabetes, and their complication. In this study, the effects and mechanisms of ZBHP on reversal of muscle atrophy were explored. C57BL/6 mice implanted with colon-26 adenocarcinoma were chosen to develop cancer cachexia for evaluating the effects of ZBHP on reversal of muscle atrophy. The body weight, survival time, inflammatory cytokines, and pathological changes of muscle were monitored. In addition, IGF-1/Akt and autophagy pathway members were analyzed to interpret the mechanism of drug response. The function and morphology of skeletal muscle in cachexia model were significantly disturbed, and the survival time was shortened. Consistently, inflammatory cytokines and muscle atrophy-related atrogin-1, MuRF1, and FOXO3 were significantly increased, and IGF-1/Akt and autophagy signal pathways were depressed. Treatment with ZBHP significantly alleviated tumor-free body weight reduction and cachexia-induced changes in cytokines and prolonged survival. ZBHP treatment not only inhibited the muscle atrophy-related genes but also activated the IGF-1/Akt and autophagy signal pathways to facilitate the protein synthesis. The results revealed that ZBHP treatment could inhibit the muscle atrophy induced by cancer cachexia and prolong the survival time, and ZBHP may be of value as a pharmacological alternative in treatment of cancer cachexia.

Esophageal cancer: 5-year survival rate at south-east of Caspian sea of northern Iran.

PubMed

Taziki, Mohammad Hussin; Rajaee, Siamak; Behnampour, Naser; Tadrisee, Massoud; Mansourian, Azad Reza

2011-01-01

Locating at southern margin of Caspian sea and Asian esophagus cancer cordon Golestan state is one of the most common sites of this cancer. This study designed to evaluate the 5-years survival rate of esophagus cancer. 55 patients with esophagus cancer diagnosed by pathologic examination, age, gender, type of tumor, clinical manifestation on the time of tumor metastases, treatment and patient survival time studied. The collecting data were analyzed by SPSS 11.5, and life table and Kaplan Meier methods were applied. 55 patients studied included 11 females and 44 males respectively with average survival life time of 12.8 months for the 5-year survival rate for patients diagnosed at early stage was 0.025, patients with systemic symptoms such as weight loss was 0.00. Far metastases adverse effect on highest survivals was observed among patients who underwent surgery; the survival rate for such patients was about 0.014. Esophageal cancer is high in southern margin of Caspian Sea, it is suggested to design studies to find the probable risk factors and the screening tests for on-time diagnosis.

Extremophile extracts and enhancement techniques show promise for the development of a live vaccine against Flavobacterium columnare

USGS Publications Warehouse

Powell, D.B.; Palm, R.C.; MacKenzie, A.P.; Winton, J.R.

2009-01-01

The effects of temperature, ionic strength, and new cryopreservatives derived from polar ice bacteria were investigated to help accelerate the development of economical, live attenuated vaccines for aquaculture. Extracts of the extremophile Gelidibacter algens functioned very well as part of a lyophilization cryoprotectant formulation in a 15-week storage trial. The bacterial extract and trehalose additives resulted in significantly higher colony counts of columnaris bacteria (Flavobacterium columnare) compared to nonfat milk or physiological saline at all time points measured. The bacterial extract combined with trehalose appeared to enhance the relative efficiency of recovery and growth potential of columnaris in flask culture compared to saline, nonfat milk, or trehalose-only controls. Pre-lyophilization temperature treatments significantly affected F. columnare survival following rehydration. A 30-min exposure at 0 ??C resulted in a 10-fold increase in bacterial survival following rehydration compared to mid-range temperature treatments. The brief 30 and 35 ??C pre-lyophilization exposures appeared to be detrimental to the rehydration survival of the bacteria. The survival of F. columnare through the lyophilization process was also strongly affected by changes in ionic strength of the bacterial suspension. Changes in rehydration constituents were also found to be important in promoting increased survival and growth. As the sodium chloride concentration increased, the viability of rehydrated F. columnare decreased. ?? 2009 Elsevier Inc.

Effects of salinity on egg and fecal pellet production, development and survival, adult sex ratio and total life span in the calanoid copepod, Acartia tonsa: a laboratory study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shayegan, Majid; Esmaeili Fereidouni, Abolghasem; Agh, Naser; Jani Khalili, Khosrow

2016-07-01

The effects of salinity on the copepod, Acartia tonsa in terms of daily egg production rate (EPR), hatching success, fecal pellet production rate (FPR), naupliar development time and survival, sex ratio, and total life span were determined in laboratory conditions through three experiments. In experiment 1, EPR, hatching success, and FPR of individual females were monitored at salinities of 13, 20, 35 and 45 during short-periods (seven consecutive days). Results show EPR was affected by salinity with the highest outputs recorded at 20 and 35, respectively, which were considerably higher than those at 13 and 45. Mean FPR was also higher in 35 and 20. In experiment 2, the same parameters were evaluated over total life span of females (long-term study). The best EPR and FPR were observed in 35, which was statistically higher than at 13 and 20. In experiment 3, survival rates of early nauplii until adult stage were lowest at a salinity of 13. The development time increased with increasing of salinity. Female percentage clearly decreased with increasing salinity. Higher female percentages (56.7% and 52.2%, respectively) were significantly observed at two salinities of 13 and 20 compared to that at 35 (25%). Total longevity of females was not affected by salinity increment. Based on our results, for mass culture we recommend that a salinity of 35 be adopted due to higher reproductive performances, better feeding, and faster development of A. tonsa.

A comparison of the conditional inference survival forest model to random survival forests based on a simulation study as well as on two applications with time-to-event data.

PubMed

Nasejje, Justine B; Mwambi, Henry; Dheda, Keertan; Lesosky, Maia

2017-07-28

Random survival forest (RSF) models have been identified as alternative methods to the Cox proportional hazards model in analysing time-to-event data. These methods, however, have been criticised for the bias that results from favouring covariates with many split-points and hence conditional inference forests for time-to-event data have been suggested. Conditional inference forests (CIF) are known to correct the bias in RSF models by separating the procedure for the best covariate to split on from that of the best split point search for the selected covariate. In this study, we compare the random survival forest model to the conditional inference model (CIF) using twenty-two simulated time-to-event datasets. We also analysed two real time-to-event datasets. The first dataset is based on the survival of children under-five years of age in Uganda and it consists of categorical covariates with most of them having more than two levels (many split-points). The second dataset is based on the survival of patients with extremely drug resistant tuberculosis (XDR TB) which consists of mainly categorical covariates with two levels (few split-points). The study findings indicate that the conditional inference forest model is superior to random survival forest models in analysing time-to-event data that consists of covariates with many split-points based on the values of the bootstrap cross-validated estimates for integrated Brier scores. However, conditional inference forests perform comparably similar to random survival forests models in analysing time-to-event data consisting of covariates with fewer split-points. Although survival forests are promising methods in analysing time-to-event data, it is important to identify the best forest model for analysis based on the nature of covariates of the dataset in question.

The influence of urban, suburban, or rural locale on survival from refractory prehospital cardiac arrest.

PubMed

Vukmir, Rade B

2004-03-01

There are many variables that can have an effect on survival in cardiopulmonary arrest. This study examined the effect of urban, suburban, or rural location on the outcome of prehospital cardiac arrest as a secondary end point in a study evaluating the effect of bicarbonate on survival. The proportion of survivors within a type of EMS provider system as well as response times were compared. This prospective, randomized, double-blind clinical intervention trial enrolled 874 prehospital cardiopulmonary arrest patients encountered by prehospital urban, suburban, and rural regional EMS area. Population density (patients per square mile) calculation allowed classification into urban (>2000/mi2), suburban (>400/mi2), and rural (0-399/mi2) systems. This group underwent standard advanced cardiac life support (ACLS) intervention with or without early empiric administration of bicarbonate in a 1-mEq/kg dose. A group of demographic, diagnostic, and therapeutic variables were analyzed for their effect on survival. Times were measured from collapse until onset of medical intervention and survival measured as the presence of ED vital signs on arrival. Data analysis used chi-squared with Pearson correlation for survivorship and Student t test comparisons for response times. The overall survival rate was approximately 13.9% (110 of 793), ranging from 9% rural, 14% for suburban, and 23% for urban sites for 372 patients (P=.007). Survival differences were associated with classification of arrest locale in this sample-best for urban, suburban, followed by rural sites. There was no difference in time to bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation, but medical response time (basic life support) was decreased for suburban or urban sites, and intervention (ACLS) and transport times were decreased for suburban sites alone. Although response times were differentiated by location, they were not necessarily predictive of survival. Factors other than response time such as patient population or resuscitation skill could influence survival from cardiac arrest occurring in diverse prehospital service areas.

Impact of biliary stent-related events in patients diagnosed with advanced pancreatobiliary tumours receiving palliative chemotherapy.

PubMed

Lamarca, Angela; Rigby, Christina; McNamara, Mairéad G; Hubner, Richard A; Valle, Juan W

2016-07-14

To determine the impact (morbidity/mortality) of biliary stent-related events (SRE) (cholangitis or stent obstruction) in chemotherapy-treated pancreatico-biliary patients. All consecutive patients with advanced pancreatobiliary cancer and a biliary stent in-situ prior to starting palliative chemotherapy were identified retrospectively from local electronic case-note records (Jan 13 to Jan 15). The primary end-point was SRE rate and the time-to-SRE (defined as time from first stenting before chemotherapy to date of SRE). Progression-free survival and overall survival were measured from the time of starting chemotherapy. Kaplan-Meier, Cox and Fine-Gray regression (univariate and multivariable) analyses were employed, as appropriate. For the analysis of time-to-SRE, death was considered as a competing event. Ninety-six out of 693 screened patients were eligible; 89% had a metal stent (the remainder were plastic). The median time of follow-up was 9.6 mo (range 2.2 to 26.4). Forty-one patients (43%) developed a SRE during follow-up [cholangitis (39%), stent obstruction (29%), both (32%)]. There were no significant differences in baseline characteristics between the SRE group and no-SRE groups. Recorded SRE-consequences were: none (37%), chemotherapy delay (24%), discontinuation (17%) and death (22%). The median time-to-SRE was 4.4 mo (95%CI: 3.6-5.5). Patients with severe comorbidities (P < 0.001) and patients with ≥ 2 baseline stents/biliary procedures [HR = 2.3 (95%CI: 1.2-4.44), P = 0.010] had a shorter time-to-SRE on multivariable analysis. Stage was an independent prognostic factor for overall survival (P = 0.029) in the multivariable analysis adjusted for primary tumour site, performance status and development of SRE (SRE group vs no-SRE group). SREs are common and impact on patient's morbidity. Our results highlight the need for prospective studies exploring the role of prophylactic strategies to prevent/delay SREs.

Impact of biliary stent-related events in patients diagnosed with advanced pancreatobiliary tumours receiving palliative chemotherapy

PubMed Central

Lamarca, Angela; Rigby, Christina; McNamara, Mairéad G; Hubner, Richard A; Valle, Juan W

2016-01-01

AIM: To determine the impact (morbidity/mortality) of biliary stent-related events (SRE) (cholangitis or stent obstruction) in chemotherapy-treated pancreatico-biliary patients. METHODS: All consecutive patients with advanced pancreatobiliary cancer and a biliary stent in-situ prior to starting palliative chemotherapy were identified retrospectively from local electronic case-note records (Jan 13 to Jan 15). The primary end-point was SRE rate and the time-to-SRE (defined as time from first stenting before chemotherapy to date of SRE). Progression-free survival and overall survival were measured from the time of starting chemotherapy. Kaplan-Meier, Cox and Fine-Gray regression (univariate and multivariable) analyses were employed, as appropriate. For the analysis of time-to-SRE, death was considered as a competing event. RESULTS: Ninety-six out of 693 screened patients were eligible; 89% had a metal stent (the remainder were plastic). The median time of follow-up was 9.6 mo (range 2.2 to 26.4). Forty-one patients (43%) developed a SRE during follow-up [cholangitis (39%), stent obstruction (29%), both (32%)]. There were no significant differences in baseline characteristics between the SRE group and no-SRE groups. Recorded SRE-consequences were: none (37%), chemotherapy delay (24%), discontinuation (17%) and death (22%). The median time-to-SRE was 4.4 mo (95%CI: 3.6-5.5). Patients with severe comorbidities (P < 0.001) and patients with ≥ 2 baseline stents/biliary procedures [HR = 2.3 (95%CI: 1.2-4.44), P = 0.010] had a shorter time-to-SRE on multivariable analysis. Stage was an independent prognostic factor for overall survival (P = 0.029) in the multivariable analysis adjusted for primary tumour site, performance status and development of SRE (SRE group vs no-SRE group). CONCLUSION: SREs are common and impact on patient’s morbidity. Our results highlight the need for prospective studies exploring the role of prophylactic strategies to prevent/delay SREs. PMID:27468198

Early allograft dysfunction in liver transplantation with donation after cardiac death donors results in inferior survival.

PubMed

Lee, David D; Singh, Amandeep; Burns, Justin M; Perry, Dana K; Nguyen, Justin H; Taner, C Burcin

2014-12-01

Donation after cardiac death (DCD) liver allografts have been associated with increased morbidity from primary nonfunction, biliary complications, early allograft failure, cost, and mortality. Early allograft dysfunction (EAD) after liver transplantation has been found to be associated with inferior patient and graft survival. In a cohort of 205 consecutive liver-only transplant patients with allografts from DCD donors at a single center, the incidence of EAD was found to be 39.5%. The patient survival rates for those with no EAD and those with EAD at 1, 3, and 5 years were 97% and 89%, 79% and 79%, and 61% and 54%, respectively (P = 0.009). Allograft survival rates for recipients with no EAD and those with EAD at 1, 3, and 5 years were 90% and 75%, 72% and 64%, and 53% and 43%, respectively (P = 0.003). A multivariate analysis demonstrated a significant association between the development of EAD and the cold ischemia time [odds ratio (OR) = 1.26, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.01-1.56, P = 0.037] and hepatocellular cancer as a secondary diagnosis in recipients (OR = 2.26, 95% CI = 1.11-4.58, P = 0.025). There was no correlation between EAD and the development of ischemic cholangiopathy. In conclusion, EAD results in inferior patient and graft survival in recipients of DCD liver allografts. Understanding the events that cause EAD and developing preventive or early therapeutic approaches should be the focus of future investigations. © 2014 American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

A practical divergence measure for survival distributions that can be estimated from Kaplan-Meier curves.

PubMed

Cox, Trevor F; Czanner, Gabriela

2016-06-30

This paper introduces a new simple divergence measure between two survival distributions. For two groups of patients, the divergence measure between their associated survival distributions is based on the integral of the absolute difference in probabilities that a patient from one group dies at time t and a patient from the other group survives beyond time t and vice versa. In the case of non-crossing hazard functions, the divergence measure is closely linked to the Harrell concordance index, C, the Mann-Whitney test statistic and the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve. The measure can be used in a dynamic way where the divergence between two survival distributions from time zero up to time t is calculated enabling real-time monitoring of treatment differences. The divergence can be found for theoretical survival distributions or can be estimated non-parametrically from survival data using Kaplan-Meier estimates of the survivor functions. The estimator of the divergence is shown to be generally unbiased and approximately normally distributed. For the case of proportional hazards, the constituent parts of the divergence measure can be used to assess the proportional hazards assumption. The use of the divergence measure is illustrated on the survival of pancreatic cancer patients. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Development and Validation of a Scoring System to Predict Outcomes of Patients With Primary Biliary Cirrhosis Receiving Ursodeoxycholic Acid Therapy.

PubMed

Lammers, Willem J; Hirschfield, Gideon M; Corpechot, Christophe; Nevens, Frederik; Lindor, Keith D; Janssen, Harry L A; Floreani, Annarosa; Ponsioen, Cyriel Y; Mayo, Marlyn J; Invernizzi, Pietro; Battezzati, Pier M; Parés, Albert; Burroughs, Andrew K; Mason, Andrew L; Kowdley, Kris V; Kumagi, Teru; Harms, Maren H; Trivedi, Palak J; Poupon, Raoul; Cheung, Angela; Lleo, Ana; Caballeria, Llorenç; Hansen, Bettina E; van Buuren, Henk R

2015-12-01

Approaches to risk stratification for patients with primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) are limited, single-center based, and often dichotomous. We aimed to develop and validate a better model for determining prognoses of patients with PBC. We performed an international, multicenter meta-analysis of 4119 patients with PBC treated with ursodeoxycholic acid at liver centers in 8 European and North American countries. Patients were randomly assigned to derivation (n = 2488 [60%]) and validation cohorts (n = 1631 [40%]). A risk score (GLOBE score) to predict transplantation-free survival was developed and validated with univariate and multivariable Cox regression analyses using clinical and biochemical variables obtained after 1 year of ursodeoxycholic acid therapy. Risk score outcomes were compared with the survival of age-, sex-, and calendar time-matched members of the general population. The prognostic ability of the GLOBE score was evaluated alongside those of the Barcelona, Paris-1, Rotterdam, Toronto, and Paris-2 criteria. Age (hazard ratio = 1.05; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.04-1.06; P < .0001); levels of bilirubin (hazard ratio = 2.56; 95% CI: 2.22-2.95; P < .0001), albumin (hazard ratio = 0.10; 95% CI: 0.05-0.24; P < .0001), and alkaline phosphatase (hazard ratio = 1.40; 95% CI: 1.18-1.67; P = .0002); and platelet count (hazard ratio/10 units decrease = 0.97; 95% CI: 0.96-0.99; P < .0001) were all independently associated with death or liver transplantation (C-statistic derivation, 0.81; 95% CI: 0.79-0.83, and validation cohort, 0.82; 95% CI: 0.79-0.84). Patients with risk scores >0.30 had significantly shorter times of transplant-free survival than matched healthy individuals (P < .0001). The GLOBE score identified patients who would survive for 5 years and 10 years (responders) with positive predictive values of 98% and 88%, respectively. Up to 22% and 21% of events and nonevents, respectively, 10 years after initiation of treatment were correctly reclassified in comparison with earlier proposed criteria. In subgroups of patients aged <45, 45-52, 52-58, 58-66, and ≥66 years, age-specific GLOBE-score thresholds beyond which survival significantly deviated from matched healthy individuals were -0.52, 0.01, 0.60, 1.01 and 1.69, respectively. Transplant-free survival could still be accurately calculated by the GLOBE score with laboratory values collected at 2-5 years after treatment. We developed and validated scoring system (the GLOBE score) to predict transplant-free survival of ursodeoxycholic acid-treated patients with PBC. This score might be used to select strategies for treatment and care. Copyright © 2015 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A comparison of the effects of different shelterwood harvest methods on the survival and growth of acorn-origin oak seedlings

Treesearch

Patrick H. Brose

2011-01-01

Timely development of newly germinated oak (Quercus spp.) seedlings into competitive-sized regeneration is an essential part of the oak regeneration process. The amount of sunlight reaching the forest floor partly governs this development, and foresters often use the shelterwood system to expose oak seedlings to varying degrees of insolation. To...

Effects of larvicidal and larval nutritional stresses on Anopheles gambiae development, survival and competence for Plasmodium falciparum.

PubMed

Vantaux, Amélie; Ouattarra, Issiaka; Lefèvre, Thierry; Dabiré, Kounbobr Roch

2016-04-23

Many studies have shown that the environment in which larvae develop can influence adult characteristics with consequences for the transmission of pathogens. We investigated how two environmental stresses (larviciding and nutritional stress) interact to affect Anopheles gambiae (previously An. gambiae S molecular form) life history traits and its susceptibility for field isolates of its natural malaria agent Plasmodium falciparum. Larvae were reared in the presence or not of a sub-lethal concentration of larvicide and under a high and low food regimen. Development time, individual size, adult survival and competence for P. falciparum were assessed. Individuals under low food regimen took more time to develop, had a lower development success and were smaller while there was no main effect of larvicide exposure on these traits. However, larvicide exposure impacted individual size in interaction with nutritional stress. Female survival was affected by the interaction between gametocytemia, parasite exposure and larval diet, as well as the interaction between gametocytemia, parasite exposure and larvicidal stress, and the interaction between gametocytemia, larvicidal exposure and larval diet. Among the 951 females dissected 7 days post-infection, 559 (58.78%) harboured parasites. Parasite prevalence was significantly affected by the interaction between larvicidal stress and larval diet. Indeed, females under low food regimen had a higher prevalence than females under high food regimen and this difference was greater under larvicidal stress. The two stresses did not impact parasite intensity. We found that larval nutritional and larvicidal stresses affect mosquito life history traits in complex ways, which could greatly affect P. falciparum transmission. Further studies combining field-based trials on larvicide use and mosquito experimental infections would give a more accurate understanding of the effects of this vector control tool on malaria transmission.

Elevated expression of Thoc1 is associated with aggressive phenotype and poor prognosis in colorectal cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Chenchen; Yue, Ben; Yuan, Chenwei

The THO complex 1 (Thoc1) is a nuclear matrix protein playing vital roles in transcription elongation and mRNA export. Recently, aberrant expression of Thoc1 has been reported in an increasing array of tumor types. However, the clinical significance of Thoc1 expression in colorectal cancer (CRC) is still unknown. The present study aimed to characterize the expression of Thoc1 in human CRC and evaluate its clinical significance. Quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) and Western blotting analyses showed that the mRNA and protein expression of Thoc1 in CRC specimens was significantly higher than that in adjacent normal colon mucosae. Immunohistochemistry (IHC)more » was conducted to characterize the expression pattern of Thoc1 in 185 archived paraffin-embedded CRC specimens. Statistical analyses revealed that high levels of Thoc1 expression were associated with the clinical stages and tumor differentiation. CRC patients with high levels of Thoc1 expression had poorer overall-survival and disease-free survival, whereas those with lower levels of Thoc1 expression survived longer. Furthermore, multivariate Cox regression analyses demonstrated that Thoc1 expression remained an independent prognostic factor for increased disease recurrence and decreased survival. Our results suggest for the first time that Thoc1 is involved in the development and progression of CRC, and elevated expression of Thoc1 is associated with aggressive phenotype and poor prognosis in CRC. These findings may prove to be clinically useful for developing a new therapeutic target of CRC treatment.« less

Advanced active health monitoring system of liquid rocket engines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qing, Xinlin P.; Wu, Zhanjun; Beard, Shawn; Chang, Fu-Kuo

2008-11-01

An advanced SMART TAPE system has been developed for real-time in-situ monitoring and long term tracking of structural integrity of pressure vessels in liquid rocket engines. The practical implementation of the structural health monitoring (SHM) system including distributed sensor network, portable diagnostic hardware and dedicated data analysis software is addressed based on the harsh operating environment. Extensive tests were conducted on a simulated large booster LOX-H2 engine propellant duct to evaluate the survivability and functionality of the system under the operating conditions of typical liquid rocket engines such as cryogenic temperature, vibration loads. The test results demonstrated that the developed SHM system could survive the combined cryogenic temperature and vibration environments and effectively detect cracks as small as 2 mm.

Start and bomber survivability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Speed, R.D.

1989-05-01

The survivability of the strategic bombers, while important today, is likely to be viewed as being of even greater importance in the 1990s if the US makes drastic cuts in its strategic forces as proposed in START and possible follow-on treaties. The analysis in this paper indicates that the Soviets with only a few SSBNs could pose a serious threat to the survivability of the strategic bombers (as presently based) if they moved these SSBNs close to the coasts or developed short-time-of-flight trajectories for their SLBMs. In searching for ways to improve bomber survivability, the use of the proposed LPSmore » (Limited Protection System) ABM to defend bomber bases was examined, but found to offer marginal improvement, at best. However, a significant improvement in survivability against even severe threats could be achieved if the alert bomber forces were rebased at a large number (preferably 40 or more) of separate bases distributed in a region in the interior of the country with the closest base being at least 500 nmi from the coasts.« less

Stochastic modeling and experimental analysis of phenotypic switching and survival of cancer cells under stress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zamani Dahaj, Seyed Alireza; Kumar, Niraj; Sundaram, Bala; Celli, Jonathan; Kulkarni, Rahul

The phenotypic heterogeneity of cancer cells is critical to their survival under stress. A significant contribution to heterogeneity of cancer calls derives from the epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT), a conserved cellular program that is crucial for embryonic development. Several studies have investigated the role of EMT in growth of early stage tumors into invasive malignancies. Also, EMT has been closely associated with the acquisition of chemoresistance properties in cancer cells. Motivated by these studies, we analyze multi-phenotype stochastic models of the evolution of cancers cell populations under stress. We derive analytical results for time-dependent probability distributions that provide insights into the competing rates underlying phenotypic switching (e.g. during EMT) and the corresponding survival of cancer cells. Experimentally, we evaluate these model-based predictions by imaging human pancreatic cancer cell lines grown with and without cytotoxic agents and measure growth kinetics, survival, morphological changes and (terminal evaluation of) biomarkers with associated epithelial and mesenchymal phenotypes. The results derived suggest approaches for distinguishing between adaptation and selection scenarios for survival in the presence of external stresses.

Assessing impacts of oil-shale development on the Piceance Basin mule deer herd

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

White, G.C.; Garrott, R.A.

Development of energy resources on big game ranges generally negatively impacts these important wildlife resources. Although habitat disturbance is generally important, this impact is overshadowed by the negative impacts due to an increasing human population in the area. Increased human activities particularly stress animals during winter periods when inadequate nutrition levels may have already severely impacted the population. Increased road traffic and poaching causes additional deaths, which a decline in survival rates expected, or at least changes in the cause of mortality. This paper describes the experimental design to monitor and mitigate the impact of oil shale development in northwesternmore » Colorado on the Piceance Basin mule deer herd. Biotelemetry techniques are used to measure changes through time in movements, habitat utilization, and survival rates between control and treatment areas. 2 figures.« less

Long term survival in children with acute leukaemia and complications requiring mechanical ventilation.

PubMed

Steinbach, Daniel; Wilhelm, Bernhard; Kiermaier, Hans-Rudolf; Creutzig, Ursula; Schrappe, Martin; Zimmermann, Martin; Debatin, Klaus-Michael; Gruhn, Bernd; von Stackelberg, Arend; Jürgens, Heribert; Strahm, Brigitte; Reinhardt, Dirk; Möricke, Anja

2011-11-01

Previous reports have indicated that the short term prognosis for patients with malignant diseases and serious adverse events requiring mechanical ventilation (SAEV) is improving. The purpose of this study was to determine whether these patients can be cured of malignant disease or whether they survive SAEV only to subsequently relapse. The authors report the outcome of children with SAEV treated in the multicentre studies ALL-BFM 95 and AML-BFM 98. Data from 1182 patients with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) and 334 patients with acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) were analysed. 88 patients (51 ALL and 37 AML) developed SAEV. The prognosis was almost identical in ALL and AML patients (survival of SAEV patients: 48%, 95% CI 38% to 58%; overall survival after 5 years: 31%, 95% CI 21% to 41%). Prognosis was independent of the time between leukaemia diagnosis and SAEV. Approximately 20% of children who required haemodialysis (n=14) or cardiac resuscitation (n=16) achieved long term survival, but no patient who fulfilled more than three of six identified risk factors (age ≥10 years, high risk leukaemia, C reactive protein ≥150 mg/l, administration of inotropic infusion, cardiac resuscitation and haemodialysis) survived (n=16; 0%, 95% CI 0% to 20%). Intensive care improves the short and long term survival of children with leukaemia. 64% (95% CI 50% to 78%) of children with acute leukaemia who survived SAEV achieved long term survival. Prognosis mainly depends on age and leukaemia risk group.

Prediction of survival without morbidity for infants born at under 33 weeks gestational age: a user-friendly graphical tool.

PubMed

Shah, Prakesh S; Ye, Xiang Y; Synnes, Anne; Rouvinez-Bouali, Nicole; Yee, Wendy; Lee, Shoo K

2012-03-01

To develop models and a graphical tool for predicting survival to discharge without major morbidity for infants with a gestational age (GA) at birth of 22-32 weeks using infant information at birth. Retrospective cohort study. Canadian Neonatal Network data for 2003-2008 were utilised. Neonates born between 22 and 32 weeks gestation admitted to neonatal intensive care units in Canada. Survival to discharge without major morbidity defined as survival without severe neurological injury (intraventricular haemorrhage grade 3 or 4 or periventricular leukomalacia), severe retinopathy (stage 3 or higher), necrotising enterocolitis (stage 2 or 3) or chronic lung disease. Of the 17 148 neonates who met the eligibility criteria, 65% survived without major morbidity. Sex and GA at birth were significant predictors. Birth weight (BW) had a significant but non-linear effect on survival without major morbidity. Although maternal information characteristics such as steroid use, improved the prediction of survival without major morbidity, sex, GA at birth and BW for GA predicted survival without major morbidity almost as accurately (area under the curve: 0.84). The graphical tool based on the models showed how the GA and BW for GA interact, to enable prediction of outcomes especially for small and large for GA infants. This graphical tool provides an improved and easily interpretable method to predict survival without major morbidity for very preterm infants at the time of birth. These curves are especially useful for small and large for GA infants.

Phase 2 study of high-dose proton therapy with concurrent chemotherapy for unresectable stage III nonsmall cell lung cancer.

PubMed

Chang, Joe Y; Komaki, Ritsuko; Lu, Charles; Wen, Hong Y; Allen, Pamela K; Tsao, Anne; Gillin, Michael; Mohan, Radhe; Cox, James D

2011-10-15

The authors sought to improve the toxicity of conventional concurrent chemoradiation therapy for stage III nonsmall cell lung cancer (NSCLC) by using proton-beam therapy to escalate the radiation dose to the tumor. They report early results of a phase 2 study of high-dose proton therapy and concurrent chemotherapy in terms of toxicity, failure patterns, and survival. Forty-four patients with stage III NSCLC were treated with 74 grays (radiobiologic equivalent) proton therapy with weekly carboplatin (area under the curve, 2 U) and paclitaxel (50 mg/m(2)). Disease was staged with positron emission tomography/computed tomography (CT), and treatments were simulated with 4-dimensional (4D) CT to account for tumor motion. Protons were delivered as passively scattered beams, and treatment simulation was repeated during the treatment process to determine the need for adaptive replanning. Median follow-up time was 19.7 months (range, 6.1-44.4 months), and median overall survival time was 29.4 months. No patient experienced grade 4 or 5 proton-related adverse events. The most common nonhematologic grade 3 toxicities were dermatitis (n = 5), esophagitis (n = 5), and pneumonitis (n = 1). Nine (20.5%) patients experienced local disease recurrence, but only 4 (9.1%) had isolated local failure. Four (9.1%) patients had regional lymph node recurrence, but only 1 (2.3%) had isolated regional recurrence. Nineteen (43.2%) patients developed distant metastasis. The overall survival and progression-free survival rates were 86% and 63% at 1 year. Concurrent high-dose proton therapy and chemotherapy are well tolerated, and the median survival time of 29.4 months is encouraging for unresectable stage III NSCLC. Copyright © 2011 American Cancer Society.

High survivorship after catch-and-release fishing suggests physiological resilience in the endothermic shortfin mako shark (Isurus oxyrinchus)

PubMed Central

Lyle, Jeremy; Tracey, Sean; Currie, Suzanne; Semmens, Jayson M

2015-01-01

Abstract The shortfin mako shark (Isurus oxyrinchus) is a species commonly targeted by commercial and recreational anglers in many parts of the developed world. In Australia, the species is targeted by recreational anglers only, under the assumption that most of the sharks are released and populations remain minimally impacted. If released sharks do not survive, the current management strategy will need to be revised. Shortfin mako sharks are commonly subjected to lengthy angling events; however, their endothermic physiology may provide an advantage over ectothermic fishes when recovering from exercise. This study assessed the post-release survival of recreationally caught shortfin mako sharks using Survivorship Pop-up Archival Transmitting (sPAT) tags and examined physiological indicators of capture stress from blood samples as well as any injuries that may be caused by hook selection. Survival estimates were based on 30 shortfin mako sharks captured off the south-eastern coast of Australia. Three mortalities were observed over the duration of the study, yielding an overall survival rate of 90%. All mortalities occurred in sharks angled for <30 min. Sharks experienced increasing plasma lactate with longer fight times and higher sea surface temperatures (SSTs), increased plasma glucose at higher SSTs and depressed expression of heat shock protein 70 and β-hydroxybutyrate at higher SSTs. Long fight times did not impact survival. Circle hooks significantly reduced foul hooking when compared with J hooks. Under the conditions of this study, we found that physical injury associated with hook choice is likely to have contributed to an increased likelihood of mortality, whereas the high aerobic scope associated with the species' endothermy probably enabled it to cope with long fight times and the associated physiological responses to capture. PMID:27303650

Exploring factors related to metastasis free survival in breast cancer patients using Bayesian cure models.

PubMed

Jafari-Koshki, Tohid; Mansourian, Marjan; Mokarian, Fariborz

2014-01-01

Breast cancer is a fatal disease and the most frequently diagnosed cancer in women with an increasing pattern worldwide. The burden is mostly attributed to metastatic cancers that occur in one-third of patients and the treatments are palliative. It is of great interest to determine factors affecting time from cancer diagnosis to secondary metastasis. Cure rate models assume a Poisson distribution for the number of unobservable metastatic-component cells that are completely deleted from the non-metastasis patient body but some may remain and result in metastasis. Time to metastasis is defined as a function of the number of these cells and the time for each cell to develop a detectable sign of metastasis. Covariates are introduced to the model via the rate of metastatic-component cells. We used non-mixture cure rate models with Weibull and log-logistic distributions in a Bayesian setting to assess the relationship between metastasis free survival and covariates. The median of metastasis free survival was 76.9 months. Various models showed that from covariates in the study, lymph node involvement ratio and being progesterone receptor positive were significant, with an adverse and a beneficial effect on metastasis free survival, respectively. The estimated fraction of patients cured from metastasis was almost 48%. The Weibull model had a slightly better performance than log-logistic. Cure rate models are popular in survival studies and outperform other models under certain conditions. We explored the prognostic factors of metastatic breast cancer from a different viewpoint. In this study, metastasis sites were analyzed all together. Conducting similar studies in a larger sample of cancer patients as well as evaluating the prognostic value of covariates in metastasis to each site separately are recommended.

Chronic exposure to dim artificial light at night decreases fecundity and adult survival in Drosophila melanogaster.

PubMed

McLay, L K; Green, M P; Jones, T M

2017-07-01

The presence of artificial light at night is expanding in geographical range and increasing in intensity to such an extent that species living in urban environments may never experience natural darkness. The negative ecological consequences of artificial night lighting have been identified in several key life history traits across multiple taxa (albeit with a strong vertebrate focus); comparable data for invertebrates is lacking. In this study, we explored the effect of chronic exposure to different night-time lighting intensities on growth, reproduction and survival in Drosophila melanogaster. We reared three generations of flies under identical daytime light conditions (2600lx) and one of four ecologically relevant ALAN treatments (0, 1, 10 or 100lx), then explored variation in oviposition, number of eggs produced, juvenile growth and survival and adult survival. We found that, in the presence of light at night (1, 10 and 100lx treatments), the probability of a female commencing oviposition and the number of eggs laid was significantly reduced. This did not translate into differences at the juvenile phase: juvenile development times and the probability of eclosing as an adult were comparable across all treatments. However, we demonstrate for the first time a direct link between chronic exposure to light at night (greater than 1lx) and adult survival. Our data highlight that ALAN has the capacity to cause dramatic shifts in multiple life history traits at both the individual and population level. Such shifts are likely to be species-specific, however a more in depth understanding of the broad-scale impact of ALAN and the relevant mechanisms driving biological change is urgently required as we move into an increasing brightly lit future. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Variation in performance on cry1Ab-transformed and nontransgenic rice varieties among populations of Scirpophaga incertulas (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) from Luzon Island, Philippines.

PubMed

Bentur, J S; Cohen, M B; Gould, F

2000-12-01

We quantified variation in performance under greenhouse conditions among seven populations of Scirpophaga incertulas (Walker) from Luzon Island, Philippines, on three rice varieties: 'IR58' transformed with the cry1Ab gene from Bacillus thuringiensis Berliner, and nontransgenic IR58 and IR62. On IR62, S. incertutas performance did not differ among provinces for any of the 10 parameters measured, but there was a significant effect of town within province for one parameter, 20-d-old larval weight. Larval survival after 48 h on cy1Ab-transformed IR58 did not differ significantly among provinces, but did differ significantly among towns within a province. There was no geographic variation in larval survival after 48 h on control plants of IR58. Surviving insects from the cry1Ab-transformed IR58 were transferred to IR62 to complete development. There was no geographic variation in the percentage of insects completing development to adult emergence and the time required by the transferred female insects to complete development. However, there was variation among provinces in male developmental time. The absence of geographic variation on nontransgenic IR58 and the very limited variation on IR62 indicated that there was little variation in general vigor among the S. incertulas populations and thus that the variation in performance oil cry1Ab-transformed IR58 was probably attributable to differences in susceptibility to Cry1Ab.

A review and comparison of methods for recreating individual patient data from published Kaplan-Meier survival curves for economic evaluations: a simulation study.

PubMed

Wan, Xiaomin; Peng, Liubao; Li, Yuanjian

2015-01-01

In general, the individual patient-level data (IPD) collected in clinical trials are not available to independent researchers to conduct economic evaluations; researchers only have access to published survival curves and summary statistics. Thus, methods that use published survival curves and summary statistics to reproduce statistics for economic evaluations are essential. Four methods have been identified: two traditional methods 1) least squares method, 2) graphical method; and two recently proposed methods by 3) Hoyle and Henley, 4) Guyot et al. The four methods were first individually reviewed and subsequently assessed regarding their abilities to estimate mean survival through a simulation study. A number of different scenarios were developed that comprised combinations of various sample sizes, censoring rates and parametric survival distributions. One thousand simulated survival datasets were generated for each scenario, and all methods were applied to actual IPD. The uncertainty in the estimate of mean survival time was also captured. All methods provided accurate estimates of the mean survival time when the sample size was 500 and a Weibull distribution was used. When the sample size was 100 and the Weibull distribution was used, the Guyot et al. method was almost as accurate as the Hoyle and Henley method; however, more biases were identified in the traditional methods. When a lognormal distribution was used, the Guyot et al. method generated noticeably less bias and a more accurate uncertainty compared with the Hoyle and Henley method. The traditional methods should not be preferred because of their remarkable overestimation. When the Weibull distribution was used for a fitted model, the Guyot et al. method was almost as accurate as the Hoyle and Henley method. However, if the lognormal distribution was used, the Guyot et al. method was less biased compared with the Hoyle and Henley method.

A Review and Comparison of Methods for Recreating Individual Patient Data from Published Kaplan-Meier Survival Curves for Economic Evaluations: A Simulation Study

PubMed Central

Wan, Xiaomin; Peng, Liubao; Li, Yuanjian

2015-01-01

Background In general, the individual patient-level data (IPD) collected in clinical trials are not available to independent researchers to conduct economic evaluations; researchers only have access to published survival curves and summary statistics. Thus, methods that use published survival curves and summary statistics to reproduce statistics for economic evaluations are essential. Four methods have been identified: two traditional methods 1) least squares method, 2) graphical method; and two recently proposed methods by 3) Hoyle and Henley, 4) Guyot et al. The four methods were first individually reviewed and subsequently assessed regarding their abilities to estimate mean survival through a simulation study. Methods A number of different scenarios were developed that comprised combinations of various sample sizes, censoring rates and parametric survival distributions. One thousand simulated survival datasets were generated for each scenario, and all methods were applied to actual IPD. The uncertainty in the estimate of mean survival time was also captured. Results All methods provided accurate estimates of the mean survival time when the sample size was 500 and a Weibull distribution was used. When the sample size was 100 and the Weibull distribution was used, the Guyot et al. method was almost as accurate as the Hoyle and Henley method; however, more biases were identified in the traditional methods. When a lognormal distribution was used, the Guyot et al. method generated noticeably less bias and a more accurate uncertainty compared with the Hoyle and Henley method. Conclusions The traditional methods should not be preferred because of their remarkable overestimation. When the Weibull distribution was used for a fitted model, the Guyot et al. method was almost as accurate as the Hoyle and Henley method. However, if the lognormal distribution was used, the Guyot et al. method was less biased compared with the Hoyle and Henley method. PMID:25803659

Evaluating time to cancer recurrence as a surrogate marker for survival from an information theory perspective.

PubMed

Alonso, Ariel; Molenberghs, Geert

2008-10-01

The last two decades have seen a lot of development in the area of surrogate marker validation. One of these approaches places the evaluation in a meta-analytic framework, leading to definitions in terms of trial- and individual-level association. A drawback of this methodology is that different settings have led to different measures at the individual level. Using information theory, Alonso et al. proposed a unified framework, leading to a new definition of surrogacy, which offers interpretational advantages and is applicable in a wide range of situations. In this work, we illustrate how this information-theoretic approach can be used to evaluate surrogacy when both endpoints are of a time-to-event type. Two meta-analyses, in early and advanced colon cancer, respectively, are then used to evaluate the performance of time to cancer recurrence as a surrogate for overall survival.

Decompression Sickness After Air Break in Prebreathe Described with a Survival Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Conkin, J.; Pilmanis, A. A.

2010-01-01

Data from Brooks City-Base show the decompression sickness (DCS) and venous gas emboli (VGE) consequences of air breaks in a resting 100% O2 prebreathe (PB) prior to a hypobaric exposure. METHODS: DCS and VGE survival times from 95 controls for a 60 min PB prior to 2-hr or 4-hr exposures to 4.37 psia are statistically compared to 3 break in PB conditions: a 10 min (n=40), 20 min (n=40), or 60 min break (n=32) 30 min into the PB followed by 30 min of PB. Ascent rate was 1,524 meters / min and all exposures included light exercise and 4 min of VGE monitoring of heart chambers at 16 min intervals. DCS survival time for combined control and air breaks were described with an accelerated log logistic model where exponential N2 washin during air break was described with a 10 min half-time and washout during PB with a 60 min half-time. RESULTS: There was no difference in VGE or DCS survival times among 3 different air breaks, or when air breaks were compared to control VGE times. However, 10, 20, and 60 min air breaks had significantly earlier survival times compared to control DCS times, certainly early in the exposures. CONCLUSION: Air breaks of 10, 20, and 60 min after 30 min of a 60 min PB reduced DCS survival time. The survival model combined discrete comparisons into a global description mechanistically linked to asymmetrical N2 washin and washout kinetics based on inspired pN2. Our unvalidated regression is used to compute additional PB time needed to compensate for an air break in PB within the range of tested conditions.

Conditional Survival in Anal Carcinoma Using the National Population-Based Survey of Epidemiology and End Results Database (1988-2012).

PubMed

Kim, Ellen; Kim, Jong S; Choi, Mehee; Thomas, Charles R

2016-04-01

Conditional survival can provide valuable information for both patients and healthcare providers about the changing prognosis in surviving patients over time. This study estimated conditional survival for patients with anal cancer in the United States through analysis of a national population-based cancer registry. Log-rank test identified significant covariates of cause-specific survival (defined as time from diagnosis until death from anal cancer). Significant covariates were considered in the multivariable regression of cause-specific survival using Cox proportional hazards models. Covariates included cancer stage and demographic variables. Patients in Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results regions diagnosed with anal squamous cell carcinoma as their first and only cancer diagnosis from 1988 to 2012 were selected from this database, and 5145 patients were included in the retrospective cohort study. Five-year conditional survival stratified by each variable in the final Cox models was measured : The final multivariable models of overall and cause-specific survivals included stage, grade, sex, age, race, and relationship status. Over the first 6 years after diagnosis, conditional survival of distant stage increased from 37% to 89%, whereas regional stage increased from 65% to 93% and localized stage increased from 84% to 96%. The other variables had increasing prognosis as well, but the subgroups increased at a more similar rate over time. The data source used does not include information on chemotherapy treatment, patient comorbidities, or socioeconomic status. Conditional survival showed improvement over time. Patients with advanced stage had the greatest improvement in conditional survival. This is the first study to provide specific conditional survival probabilities for patients with anal cancer.

Advantages of a multi-state approach in surgical research: how intermediate events and risk factor profile affect the prognosis of a patient with locally advanced rectal cancer.

PubMed

Manzini, G; Ettrich, T J; Kremer, M; Kornmann, M; Henne-Bruns, D; Eikema, D A; Schlattmann, P; de Wreede, L C

2018-02-13

Standard survival analysis fails to give insight into what happens to a patient after a first outcome event (like first relapse of a disease). Multi-state models are a useful tool for analyzing survival data when different treatments and results (intermediate events) can occur. Aim of this study was to implement a multi-state model on data of patients with rectal cancer to illustrate the advantages of multi-state analysis in comparison to standard survival analysis. We re-analyzed data from the RCT FOGT-2 study by using a multi-state model. Based on the results we defined a high and low risk reference patient. Using dynamic prediction, we estimated how the survival probability changes as more information about the clinical history of the patient becomes available. A patient with stage UICC IIIc (vs UICC II) has a higher risk to develop distant metastasis (DM) or both DM and local recurrence (LR) if he/she discontinues chemotherapy within 6 months or between 6 and 12 months, as well as after the completion of 12 months CTx with HR 3.55 (p = 0.026), 5.33 (p = 0.001) and 3.37 (p < 0.001), respectively. He/she also has a higher risk to die after the development of DM (HR 1.72, p = 0.023). Anterior resection vs. abdominoperineal amputation means 63% risk reduction to develop DM or both DM and LR (HR 0.37, p = 0.003) after discontinuation of chemotherapy between 6 and 12 months. After development of LR, a woman has a 4.62 times higher risk to die (p = 0.006). A high risk reference patient has an estimated 43% 5-year survival probability at start of CTx, whereas for a low risk patient this is 79%. After the development of DM 1 year later, the high risk patient has an estimated 5-year survival probability of 11% and the low risk patient one of 21%. Multi-state models help to gain additional insight into the complex events after start of treatment. Dynamic prediction shows how survival probabilities change by progression of the clinical history.

Chemotherapy-induced neutropenia is associated with prolonged remission duration and survival time in canine lymphoma.

PubMed

Wang, S L; Lee, J J; Liao, A T

2015-07-01

Myelosuppression is one of the most common side effects of chemotherapy. The aim of this study was to determine whether chemotherapy-induced neutropenia is a positive prognostic indicator for remission and survival time in dogs with lymphoma. Fifty dogs with multicentric lymphoma received CHOP-based (C-cyclophosphamide; H-hydroxydaunorubicin; O-vincristine; P-prednisolone) chemotherapy using conventional dosages. Complete blood counts were recorded to determine the presence or absence of neutropenia after treatment. Toxicity, remission, and survival times were recorded and analysed. Thirteen dogs had chemotherapy-induced neutropenia and 37 had no neutropenia during the study period. No statistical difference was found between the groups for signalment or the presence of historical negative prognostic factors, except for bodyweight (P = 0.02). The median first remission times in the neutropenia and no neutropenia groups were 812 and 219 days, respectively (P <0.01). The median survival times of dogs in the neutropenia and no neutropenia groups were 952 and 282 days, respectively (P <0.01). Dogs with lymphoma that had chemotherapy-induced neutropenia exhibited significantly increased remission and survival times compared with dogs without neutropenia. Chemotherapeutic dosages may be adjusted individually to induce neutropenia without severe adverse effects in order to achieve longer remission and survival times. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling post-fledging survival of lark buntings in response to ecological and biological factors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yackel Adams, A.A.; Skagen, S.K.; Savidge, J.A.

2006-01-01

We evaluated the influences of several ecological, biological, and methodological factors on post-fledging survival of a shortgrass prairie bird, the Lark Bunting (Calamospiza melanocorys). We estimated daily post-fledging survival (n = 206, 82 broods) using radiotelemetry and color bands to track fledglings. Daily survival probabilities were best explained by drought intensity, time in season (quadratic trend), ages ≤3 d post-fledging, and rank given drought intensity. Drought intensity had a strong negative effect on survival. Rank was an important predictor of fledgling survival only during the severe drought of 2002 when the smallest fledglings had lower survival. Recently fledged young (ages ≤3 d post-fledging) undergoing the transition from nest to surrounding habitat experienced markedly lower survival, demonstrating the vulnerable nature of this time period. Survival was greater in mid and late season than early season, corresponding to our assumptions of food availability. Neither mark type nor sex of attending parent influenced survival. The model-averaged product of the 22-d survival calculated using mean rank and median value of time in season was 0.360 ± 0.08 in 2001 and 0.276 ± 0.08 in 2002. Survival estimates that account for age, condition of young, ecological conditions, and other factors are important for parameterization of realistic population models. Biologists using population growth models to elucidate mechanisms of population declines should attempt to estimate species-specific of post-fledging survival rather than use generalized estimates.

Implications caused by SARex on the implementation of the IMO polar code on survival at sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solberg, K. E.

2017-12-01

The International Code for Ships Operating in Polar waters goes into effect on 01 January 2018 for all ships. This puts additional strain on vessel owners and operators as they will have to comply with an additional set of requirements. This includes the functional requirement of a minimum of 5 days survival time. The SARex exercise has elaborated on the issue of survival in close cooperation with the different stakeholders associated with the marine industry. Being an objective third party is important when organizing and executing these activities as all of the stakeholders has different agendas and priorities. Developing sustainable solutions is a balancing act, incorporating economic and political aspects as well as technology and requires a mutual common understanding of the mechanism involved.

The true quantum face of the "exponential" decay: Unstable systems in rest and in motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urbanowski, K.

2017-12-01

Results of theoretical studies and numerical calculations presented in the literature suggest that the survival probability P0(t) has the exponential form starting from times much smaller than the lifetime τ up to times t ⪢τ and that P0(t) exhibits inverse power-law behavior at the late time region for times longer than the so-called crossover time T ⪢ τ (The crossover time T is the time when the late time deviations of P0(t) from the exponential form begin to dominate). More detailed analysis of the problem shows that in fact the survival probability P0(t) can not take the pure exponential form at any time interval including times smaller than the lifetime τ or of the order of τ and it has has an oscillating form. We also study the survival probability of moving relativistic unstable particles with definite momentum . These studies show that late time deviations of the survival probability of these particles from the exponential-like form of the decay law, that is the transition times region between exponential-like and non-exponential form of the survival probability, should occur much earlier than it follows from the classical standard considerations.

A comparative study of mixture cure models with covariate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leng, Oh Yit; Khalid, Zarina Mohd

2017-05-01

In survival analysis, the survival time is assumed to follow a non-negative distribution, such as the exponential, Weibull, and log-normal distributions. In some cases, the survival time is influenced by some observed factors. The absence of these observed factors may cause an inaccurate estimation in the survival function. Therefore, a survival model which incorporates the influences of observed factors is more appropriate to be used in such cases. These observed factors are included in the survival model as covariates. Besides that, there are cases where a group of individuals who are cured, that is, not experiencing the event of interest. Ignoring the cure fraction may lead to overestimate in estimating the survival function. Thus, a mixture cure model is more suitable to be employed in modelling survival data with the presence of a cure fraction. In this study, three mixture cure survival models are used to analyse survival data with a covariate and a cure fraction. The first model includes covariate in the parameterization of the susceptible individuals survival function, the second model allows the cure fraction to depend on covariate, and the third model incorporates covariate in both cure fraction and survival function of susceptible individuals. This study aims to compare the performance of these models via a simulation approach. Therefore, in this study, survival data with varying sample sizes and cure fractions are simulated and the survival time is assumed to follow the Weibull distribution. The simulated data are then modelled using the three mixture cure survival models. The results show that the three mixture cure models are more appropriate to be used in modelling survival data with the presence of cure fraction and an observed factor.

Measuring agreement of multivariate discrete survival times using a modified weighted kappa coefficient.

PubMed

Guo, Ying; Manatunga, Amita K

2009-03-01

Assessing agreement is often of interest in clinical studies to evaluate the similarity of measurements produced by different raters or methods on the same subjects. We present a modified weighted kappa coefficient to measure agreement between bivariate discrete survival times. The proposed kappa coefficient accommodates censoring by redistributing the mass of censored observations within the grid where the unobserved events may potentially happen. A generalized modified weighted kappa is proposed for multivariate discrete survival times. We estimate the modified kappa coefficients nonparametrically through a multivariate survival function estimator. The asymptotic properties of the kappa estimators are established and the performance of the estimators are examined through simulation studies of bivariate and trivariate survival times. We illustrate the application of the modified kappa coefficient in the presence of censored observations with data from a prostate cancer study.

Nanocerium oxide increases the survival of adult rod and cone photoreceptor in culture by abrogating hydrogen peroxide-induced oxidative stress.

PubMed

Bhargava, Neelima; Shanmugaiah, Vellasamy; Saxena, Manav; Sharma, Manish; Sethy, Niroj Kumar; Singh, Sushil Kumar; Balakrishnan, Karuppiah; Bhargava, Kalpana; Das, Mainak

2016-09-16

In vitro cell culture system for adult rod and cone photoreceptor (PR) is an effective and economical model for screening drug candidates against all kinds of age related retinal blindness. Interestingly, adult PR cells have a limited survival in the culture system, thus preventing full exploitation of this in vitro approach for drug screening applications. The limited survival of the adult PR cells in culture is due to their inherently high oxidative stress and photic injury. Mixed valence-state ceria nanoparticles have the ability to scavenge free radicals and reduce oxidative stress. Here, ceria nanoparticles of 5-10 nm dimensions have been synthesized, possessing dual oxidation state (+3 and +4) as evident from x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy and exhibiting real time reduction of hydrogen peroxide (H 2 O 2 ) as quantified by absorbance spectroscopy and cyclic voltammogram analysis. Using flow cytometry and cell culture assay, it has been shown that, upon one time addition of 10 nM of nanoceria in the PR culture of the 18 months old adult common carp (Cyprinus carpio) at the time of plating the cells, the oxidative stress caused due to hydrogen peroxide assault could be abrogated. A further single application of nanoceria significantly increases the survival of these fragile cells in the culture, thus paving way for developing a more robust photoreceptor culture model to study the aging photoreceptor cells in a defined condition.

Accurate computation of survival statistics in genome-wide studies.

PubMed

Vandin, Fabio; Papoutsaki, Alexandra; Raphael, Benjamin J; Upfal, Eli

2015-05-01

A key challenge in genomics is to identify genetic variants that distinguish patients with different survival time following diagnosis or treatment. While the log-rank test is widely used for this purpose, nearly all implementations of the log-rank test rely on an asymptotic approximation that is not appropriate in many genomics applications. This is because: the two populations determined by a genetic variant may have very different sizes; and the evaluation of many possible variants demands highly accurate computation of very small p-values. We demonstrate this problem for cancer genomics data where the standard log-rank test leads to many false positive associations between somatic mutations and survival time. We develop and analyze a novel algorithm, Exact Log-rank Test (ExaLT), that accurately computes the p-value of the log-rank statistic under an exact distribution that is appropriate for any size populations. We demonstrate the advantages of ExaLT on data from published cancer genomics studies, finding significant differences from the reported p-values. We analyze somatic mutations in six cancer types from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA), finding mutations with known association to survival as well as several novel associations. In contrast, standard implementations of the log-rank test report dozens-hundreds of likely false positive associations as more significant than these known associations.

Inference for the effect of treatment on survival probability in randomized trials with noncompliance and administrative censoring.

PubMed

Nie, Hui; Cheng, Jing; Small, Dylan S

2011-12-01

In many clinical studies with a survival outcome, administrative censoring occurs when follow-up ends at a prespecified date and many subjects are still alive. An additional complication in some trials is that there is noncompliance with the assigned treatment. For this setting, we study the estimation of the causal effect of treatment on survival probability up to a given time point among those subjects who would comply with the assignment to both treatment and control. We first discuss the standard instrumental variable (IV) method for survival outcomes and parametric maximum likelihood methods, and then develop an efficient plug-in nonparametric empirical maximum likelihood estimation (PNEMLE) approach. The PNEMLE method does not make any assumptions on outcome distributions, and makes use of the mixture structure in the data to gain efficiency over the standard IV method. Theoretical results of the PNEMLE are derived and the method is illustrated by an analysis of data from a breast cancer screening trial. From our limited mortality analysis with administrative censoring times 10 years into the follow-up, we find a significant benefit of screening is present after 4 years (at the 5% level) and this persists at 10 years follow-up. © 2011, The International Biometric Society.

Accurate Computation of Survival Statistics in Genome-Wide Studies

PubMed Central

Vandin, Fabio; Papoutsaki, Alexandra; Raphael, Benjamin J.; Upfal, Eli

2015-01-01

A key challenge in genomics is to identify genetic variants that distinguish patients with different survival time following diagnosis or treatment. While the log-rank test is widely used for this purpose, nearly all implementations of the log-rank test rely on an asymptotic approximation that is not appropriate in many genomics applications. This is because: the two populations determined by a genetic variant may have very different sizes; and the evaluation of many possible variants demands highly accurate computation of very small p-values. We demonstrate this problem for cancer genomics data where the standard log-rank test leads to many false positive associations between somatic mutations and survival time. We develop and analyze a novel algorithm, Exact Log-rank Test (ExaLT), that accurately computes the p-value of the log-rank statistic under an exact distribution that is appropriate for any size populations. We demonstrate the advantages of ExaLT on data from published cancer genomics studies, finding significant differences from the reported p-values. We analyze somatic mutations in six cancer types from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA), finding mutations with known association to survival as well as several novel associations. In contrast, standard implementations of the log-rank test report dozens-hundreds of likely false positive associations as more significant than these known associations. PMID:25950620

Evaluation of factors associated with survival in dogs with untreated nasal carcinomas: 139 cases (1993-2003).

PubMed

Rassnick, Kenneth M; Goldkamp, Carrie E; Erb, Hollis N; Scrivani, Peter V; Njaa, Bradley L; Gieger, Tracy L; Turek, Michelle M; McNiel, Elizabeth A; Proulx, David R; Chun, Ruthanne; Mauldin, Glenna E; Phillips, Brenda S; Kristal, Orna

2006-08-01

To evaluate factors associated with survival in dogs with nasal carcinomas that did not receive treatment or received only palliative treatment. Retrospective case series. 139 dogs with histologically confirmed nasal carcinomas. Medical records, computed tomography images, and biopsy specimens of nasal carcinomas were reviewed. Only dogs that were not treated with radiation, surgery, chemotherapy, or immunotherapy and that survived > or = 7 days from the date of diagnosis were included. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate survival time. Factors potentially associated with survival were compared by use of log-rank and Wilcoxon rank sum tests. Multivariable survival analysis was performed by use of the Cox proportional hazards regression model. Overall median survival time was 95 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 73 to 113 days; range, 7 to 1,114 days). In dogs with epistaxis, the hazard of dying was 2.3 times that of dogs that did not have epistaxis. Median survival time of 107 dogs with epistaxis was 88 days (95% CI, 65 to 106 days) and that of 32 dogs without epistaxis was 224 days (95% CI, 54 to 467 days). The prognosis of dogs with untreated nasal carcinomas is poor. Treatment strategies to improve outcome should be pursued.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Prentice, John K.; Gardner, David Randall

A methodology was developed for computing the probability that the sensor dart for the 'Near Real-Time Site Characterization for Assured HDBT Defeat' Grand-Challenge LDRD project will survive deployment over a forested region. The probability can be decomposed into three approximately independent probabilities that account for forest coverage, branch density and the physics of an impact between the dart and a tree branch. The probability that a dart survives an impact with a tree branch was determined from the deflection induced by the impact. If a dart that was deflected so that it impacted the ground at an angle of attackmore » exceeding a user-specified, threshold value, the dart was assumed to not survive the impact with the branch; otherwise it was assumed to have survived. A computer code was developed for calculating dart angle of attack at impact with the ground and a Monte Carlo scheme was used to calculate the probability distribution of a sensor dart surviving an impact with a branch as a function of branch radius, length, and height from the ground. Both an early prototype design and the current dart design were used in these studies. As a general rule of thumb, it we observed that for reasonably generic trees and for a threshold angle of attack of 5{sup o} (which is conservative for dart survival), the probability of reaching the ground with an angle of attack less than the threshold is on the order of 30% for the prototype dart design and 60% for the current dart design, though these numbers should be treated with some caution.« less

American Heart Association Response to the 2015 Institute of Medicine Report on Strategies to Improve Cardiac Arrest Survival.

PubMed

Neumar, Robert W; Eigel, Brian; Callaway, Clifton W; Estes, N A Mark; Jollis, James G; Kleinman, Monica E; Morrison, Laurie J; Peberdy, Mary Ann; Rabinstein, Alejandro; Rea, Thomas D; Sendelbach, Sue

2015-09-15

The American Heart Association (AHA) commends the recently released Institute of Medicine (IOM) report, Strategies to Improve Cardiac Arrest Survival: A Time to Act (2015). The AHA recognizes the unique opportunity created by the report to meaningfully advance the objectives of improving outcomes for sudden cardiac arrest. For decades, the AHA has focused on the goal of reducing morbidity and mortality from cardiovascular disease though robust support of basic, translational, clinical, and population research. The AHA also has developed a rigorous process using the best available evidence to develop scientific, advisory, and guideline documents. These core activities of development and dissemination of scientific evidence have served as the foundation for a broad range of advocacy initiatives and programs that serve as a foundation for advancing the AHA and IOM goal of improving cardiac arrest outcomes. In response to the call to action in the IOM report, the AHA is announcing 4 new commitments to increase cardiac arrest survival: (1) The AHA will provide up to $5 million in funding over 5 years to incentivize resuscitation data interoperability; (2) the AHA will actively pursue philanthropic support for local and regional implementation opportunities to increase cardiac arrest survival by improving out-of-hospital and in-hospital systems of care; (3) the AHA will actively pursue philanthropic support to launch an AHA resuscitation research network; and (4) the AHA will cosponsor a National Cardiac Arrest Summit to facilitate the creation of a national cardiac arrest collaborative that will unify the field and identify common goals to improve survival. In addition to the AHA's historic and ongoing commitment to improving cardiac arrest care and outcomes, these new initiatives are responsive to each of the IOM recommendations and demonstrate the AHA's leadership in the field. However, successful implementation of the IOM recommendations will require a timely response by all stakeholders identified in the report and a coordinated approach to achieve our common goal of improved cardiac arrest outcomes. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Survival in Alzheimer disease

PubMed Central

Helzner, E P.; Scarmeas, N; Cosentino, S; Tang, M X.; Schupf, N; Stern, Y

2008-01-01

Objective: To describe factors associated with survival in Alzheimer disease (AD) in a multiethnic, population-based longitudinal study. Methods: AD cases were identified in the Washington Heights Inwood Columbia Aging Project, a longitudinal, community-based study of cognitive aging in Northern Manhattan. The sample comprised 323 participants who were initially dementia-free but developed AD during study follow-up (incident cases). Participants were followed for an average of 4.1 (up to 12.6) years. Possible factors associated with shorter lifespan were assessed using Cox proportional hazards models with attained age as the time to event (time from birth to death or last follow-up). In subanalyses, median postdiagnosis survival durations were estimated using postdiagnosis study follow-up as the timescale. Results: The mortality rate was 10.7 per 100 person-years. Mortality rates were higher among those diagnosed at older ages, and among Hispanics compared to non-Hispanic whites. The median lifespan of the entire sample was 92.2 years (95% CI: 90.3, 94.1). In a multivariable-adjusted Cox model, history of diabetes and history of hypertension were independently associated with a shorter lifespan. No differences in lifespan were seen by race/ethnicity after multivariable adjustment. The median postdiagnosis survival duration was 3.7 years among non-Hispanic whites, 4.8 years among African Americans, and 7.6 years among Hispanics. Conclusion: Factors influencing survival in Alzheimer disease include race/ethnicity and comorbid diabetes and hypertension. GLOSSARY AD = Alzheimer disease; NDI = National Death Index; WHICAP = Washington Heights Inwood Columbia Aging Project. PMID:18981370

Species variation in osmotic, cryoprotectant, and cooling rate tolerance in poultry, eagle, and Peregrine Falcon spermatozoa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blanco, J.M.; Gee, G.; Wildt, D.E.; Donoghue, A.M.

2000-01-01

Potential factors influencing spermatozoa survival to cryopreservation and thawing were analyzed across a range of the following avian species: domestic chicken (Gallus domesticus), domestic turkey (Meleagris gallopavo), golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos), Bonelli's eagle (Hieraaetus fasciatus), imperial eagle (Aquila adalberti), and peregrine falcon (Falco peregrinus). Studies focused on spermatozoa tolerance to the following: 1) osmotic stress, 2) different extracellular concentrations of the cryoprotectant dimethylacetamide (DMA), 3) equilibration times of 1 versus 4 h, 4) equilibration temperature of 4 versus 21 degrees C, and 5) rapid versus slow cooling before cryopreservation and standard thawing. Sperm viability was assessed with the live/dead stain (SYBR14/ propidium iodine). Sperm viability at osmolalities >/=800 mOsm was higher (P: /=2.06 M), experienced decreased (P: < 0.05) spermatozoa survival in all species, except the golden eagle and peregrine falcon. Number of surviving spermatozoa diminished progressively with increasing DMA concentrations in all species. Increased equilibration temperature (from 4 to 21 degrees C) markedly reduced (P: < 0.05) spermatozoa survival in all species except the Bonelli's eagle and turkey. Rapid cooling was detrimental (P: < 0.05) to spermatozoa from all species except the imperial eagle and the chicken. These results demonstrate that avian spermatozoa differ remarkably in response to osmotic changes, DMA concentrations, equilibration time, temperature, and survival after fast or slow freezing. These differences emphasize the need for species-specific studies in the development and enhancement of assisted breeding for poultry and endangered species.

Survival in 76 cats with epilepsy of unknown cause: a retrospective study.

PubMed

Szelecsenyi, Arlette Cornelia; Giger, Urs; Golini, Lorenzo; Mothersill, Ian; Torgerson, Paul R; Steffen, Frank

2017-11-01

Survival of cats with epilepsy of unknown cause (EUC) has not been reported. Seizure semiology and its relationship to treatment outcome and survival was studied in a population of 76 cats. A questionnaire for seizure semiology was developed based on experimental data. Seizure semiology was characterised by owner interviews at least one year after discharge. Seizures were classified as (1) primary generalised and (2) focal without and (3) with secondary generalisation. Median age at seizure onset was four (range 0.3-18) years. One-third of cats with EUC presented with primary generalised seizures and 78 per cent of those with initially focal seizures progressed to secondary generalised seizures. Clinical signs of generalised seizures included sudden onset of loss of consciousness and tonic-clonic seizures, while cats with focal seizures had unilateral signs. Antiepileptic drug (AED) therapy was initiated in 62 cats. Complete remission rate was 42 per cent and the median survival time was 3.2 (range 1-11) years with or without AED, and 91 per cent were still alive at the time of interview. Neither semiology nor seizure type predicted survival, response to treatment and outcome in cats with EUC. A seizure-free status of more than 12 months was observed in 79 per cent of cats without AED. © British Veterinary Association (unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Survival Estimates for the Passage of Spring-Migrating Juvenile Salmonids through Snake and Columbia River Dams and Reservoirs, 2003-2004 Annual Report.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Steven G.; Muir, William D.; Zabel, Richard W.

2004-01-01

For juvenile chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, sockeye salmon O. nerka, and steelhead O. mykiss that migrate through reservoirs, hydroelectric projects, and free-flowing sections of the Snake and Columbia Rivers, survival estimates are essential to develop effective strategies for recovering depressed stocks. Many management strategies were based on estimates of system survival (Raymond 1979; Sims and Ossiander 1981) derived in a river system considerably different from today's (Williams and Matthews 1995; Williams et al. 2001). Knowledge of the magnitude, locations, and causes of smolt mortality under present passage conditions, and under conditions projected for the future, are necessary to develop strategiesmore » that will optimize smolt survival during migration. From 1993 through 2002, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) and the University of Washington (UW) demonstrated the feasibility of using three statistical models to estimate survival of PIT-tagged (Prentice et al. 1990a) juvenile salmonids passing through Snake River dams and reservoirs (Iwamoto et al. 1994; Muir et al. 1995, 1996, 2001a, 2003; Smith et al. 1998, 2000a,b; Hockersmith et al. 1999; Zabel et al. 2001, 2002). Evaluation of assumptions for these models indicated that all were generally satisfied, and accurate and precise survival estimates were obtained. In 2003, NMFS and UW completed the eleventh year of the study. Flow levels during the early portion of the 2003 spring migration were similar to 2002, and only slightly higher than in the drought conditions during 2001. However, flow levels were much greater during the later part of the migration in 2003. Spill levels were similar to 2002, much higher than in 2001. Research objectives were to: (1) estimate reach survival and travel time in the Snake and Columbia Rivers throughout the yearling chinook salmon and steelhead migrations; (2) evaluate relationships between survival estimates and migration conditions; and (3) evaluate the performance of the survival-estimation models under prevailing operational and environmental conditions. Additionally, as adult return information becomes available, as part of this study we will evaluate relationships between juvenile survival and subsequent adult returns for fish with different juvenile migration histories.« less

[Pharmacological study on Tianxiong (tuber of Aconitum carmichaeli Debx.), a Chinese drug for reinforcing the kidney yang retail in Hong Kong market].

PubMed

Cao, H; Wang, S T; Wu, L Y; Wang, X T; Jiang, A P

2001-06-01

To explore the pharmacodynamic mechanism of Tianxiong (Aconitum carmichaeli) in tonifying the kidney and supporting Yang, so as to provide evidences for further development of new drugs treating Yang-eficiency of the kidney. Observing parameters such as visceral index, survival time of low-temperature swimming for hydrocortisone-induced Yang-deficiency model mouse and testis-removed kidney-deficiency model rat. The decoction of processed Tianxiong could strengthen the antifatigual ability and prolong the survival time of low-temperature swimming for mice, and promote immunization in rats. Tianxiong is able to reinforce the kidney Yang, which reconforms the conclusion of "replenishing the fire of vital gate and the Qi of kidney" recorded in Chinese historical literature and proved by overseas clinical practice.

Evaluation of stream flow effects on smolt survival in the Yakima River basin, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Courter,; Garrison,; Kock, Tobias J.; Perry, Russell W.

2012-01-01

Yearling Chinook smolt survival and travel time estimates from 2012 suggest that migration rates and survival rates in the Roza Reach may be associated with stream flow, water temperature, release timing (i.e. migratory disposition), and fish size, but the extent to which each variable influenced survival is yet to be determined. The lowest survival rate (61%) and longest travel time (median 2.26 days) was observed in Release Group 1, which had the smallest size distribution and experienced the lowest flows, lowest temperatures, and earliest release date among the three groups. Release Groups 2 and 3 survived at 96% and 98% respectively and traveled through the Roza Reach in less than eight hours. The primary focus of years two and three of this study will be to collect data that minimizes the effect of confounding explanatory variables, so that flow effects on emigration survival can be quantified independent of these other influential factors.

Outcomes after heart transplantation in patients with and without pretransplant renal dysfunction.

PubMed

Molina, Ezequiel J; Sandusky, Matthew F; Gupta, Dipin; Gaughan, John P; McClurken, James B; Furukawa, Satoshi; Macha, Mahender

2010-06-01

To compare long-term survival and incidence of ESRD between patients with and without preoperative renal dysfunction following heart transplantation. Fifty consecutive patients with preoperative estimated GFR < or = than 50 ml/min were compared with 50 age-matched patients with estimated GFR > or = than 80 ml/min who underwent heart transplantation between 1994 and 1998. We investigated two primary outcomes: death and development of ESRD. We also analyzed risk factors. Eight patients (16%) developed ESRD and 19 (38%) died in the control group whereas 10 patients (20%) developed ESRD and 26 (52%) died in the renal failure group during a mean follow-up period of 6.74 +/- 3.31 years. Survival and time to ESRD were not significantly different. In univariate and multivariate analysis, waiting time was the only risk factor found to predict mortality but not ESRD. High cyclosporine levels were only found to be associated with lower estimated GFR (p < 0.009). Among the control group, mortality was significantly higher in the subgroup of patients that developed > or = 50% reduction of estimated GFR at the end of the first post transplant year (p < 0.05). This study suggests that low pre-transplant estimated GFR may not accurately predict long-term development of ESRD.

Modelling postfledging survival and age- specific breeding probabilities in species with delayed maturity: A case study of Roseate Terns at Falkner Island, Connecticut

USGS Publications Warehouse

Spendelow, J.A.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Lebreton, J.D.; Pradel, R.

2002-01-01

We modelled postfledging survival and age-specific breeding probabilities in endangered Roseate Terns (Sterna dougallii) at Falkner Island, Connecticut, USA using capture-recapture data from 1988-1998 of birds ringed as chicks and as adults. While no individuals bred as 2-year-olds during this period, about three-quarters of the young that survived and returned as 3-year-olds nested, and virtually all surviving birds had begun breeding by the time they reached 5 years of age. We found no evidence of temporal variation age of first breeding of birds from different cohorts. There was significant temporal variation in the annual survival of adults and the survival over the typical 3-year maturation period of prebreeding birds, with extremely low values for both groups from the 1991 breeding season. The estimated overwinter survival rate (0.62) for adults from 1991-1992 was about three-quarters the usual rate of about 0.83, but the low survival of fledglings from 1991 resulted in less than 25% of the otherwise expected number of young from that cohort returning as breeding birds; this suggests that fledglings suffered a greater proportional decrease in survival than did adults. The survival estimates of young from 1989 and 1990 show that these cohorts were not negatively influenced by the events that decimated the young from 1991, and the young from 1992 and 1993 had above-average survival estimates. The apparent decrease since 1996 in development of fidelity of new recruits to this site is suspected to be due mainly to nocturnal disturbance and predation of chicks causing low productivity.

Modelling postfledging survival and age-specific breeding probabilities in species with delayed maturity: a case study of Roseate Terns at Falkner Island, Connecticut

USGS Publications Warehouse

Spendelow, J.A.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Lebreton, J.D.; Pradel, R.

2002-01-01

We modeled postfledging survival and age-specific breeding probabilities in endangered Roseate Terns (Sterna dougallii) at Falkner Island, Connecticut, USA using capture-recapture data from 1988-1998 of birds ringed as chicks and as adults. While no individuals bred as 2-yr-olds during this period, about three-quarters of the young that survived and returned as 3-yr-olds nested, and virtually all surviving birds had begun breeding by the time they reached 5 years of age. We found no evidence of temporal variation in age of first breeding of birds from different cohorts. There was significant temporal variation in the annual survival of adults and the survival over the typical 3-yr maturation period of prebreeding birds, with extremely low values for both groups from the 1991 breeding season. The estimated overwinter survival rate (0.62) for adults from 1991-1992 was about three-quarters the usual rate of about 0.83, but the low survival of fledglings from 1991 resulted in less than 25% of the otherwise expected number of young from that cohort returning as breeding birds; this suggests that fledglings suffered a greater proportional decrease in survival than did adults. The survival estimates of young from 1989 and 1990 show that these cohorts were not negatively influenced by the events that decimated the young from 1991, and the young from 1992 and 1993 had above-average survival estimates. The apparent decrease since 1996 in development of fidelity of new recruits to this site is suspected due mainly to nocturnal disturbance and predation of chicks causing low productivity.

Survival of female northern pintails wintering in southwestern Louisiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cox, R.R.; Afton, A.D.; Pace, R. M.

1998-01-01

The North American breeding population of northern pintails (Anas acuta) has reached previously unprecedented low numbers 4 times since 1983. Because pintails show high fidelity to wintering areas, regional survival estimates and identification of factors influencing survival are needed to guide management of wintering pintails. We used raidiotelemetry to estimate survival rates of female pintails wintering in southwestern Lousiaina. We tested for variation in survival and hunting mortality rates in realtiaon to age (immature or adult), winter (1990-91, 1991-92, 1992-93), time period (prehunting season, first hunting season, time between split hunting seasons, second hunting season, posthunting season), body condition (body mass when released, adjusted for body size), and region (southwestern Louisiana or elsewhere on the Texas-Louisiana Gulf Coast or Mississippi Alluvial Valley).

Epigenetically regulated imprinted genes and foetal programming.

PubMed

Keverne, Eric B

2010-11-01

Genomic imprinting is a widespread epigenetic phenomenon in mammals and many imprinted genes are expressed in the developing hypothalamus and placenta. The placenta and brain are very different structures with very different roles, but in the pregnant mother they functionally interact coordinating and ensuring the provision of nutrients, timing of parturition and priming of hypothalamus for maternal care and nurturing. This interaction has been evolutionarily fine-tuned to optimise infant survival such that when resources are poor, the mother 'informs' this condition to the foetus producing a thrifty phenotype that is adapted to survive scarce resources after birth.

Analysis of censored data.

PubMed

Lucijanic, Marko; Petrovecki, Mladen

2012-01-01

Analyzing events over time is often complicated by incomplete, or censored, observations. Special non-parametric statistical methods were developed to overcome difficulties in summarizing and comparing censored data. Life-table (actuarial) method and Kaplan-Meier method are described with an explanation of survival curves. For the didactic purpose authors prepared a workbook based on most widely used Kaplan-Meier method. It should help the reader understand how Kaplan-Meier method is conceptualized and how it can be used to obtain statistics and survival curves needed to completely describe a sample of patients. Log-rank test and hazard ratio are also discussed.

Failure Time Analysis of Office System Use.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cooper, Michael D.

1991-01-01

Develops mathematical models to characterize the probability of continued use of an integrated office automation system and tests these models on longitudinal data collected from 210 individuals using the IBM Professional Office System (PROFS) at the University of California at Berkeley. Analyses using survival functions and proportional hazard…

Development and validation of an HPLC-MS/MS method for the detection of ketamine in Calliphora vomitoria (L.) (Diptera: Calliphoridae).

PubMed

Magni, Paola A; Pazzi, Marco; Droghi, Jessica; Vincenti, Marco; Dadour, Ian R

2018-05-03

Entomotoxicology is a branch of forensic entomology that studies the detection of drugs or other toxic substances from insects developing on the decomposing tissues of a human corpse or animal carcass. Entomotoxicology also investigates the effects of these substances on insect development, survival and morphology to provide an estimation of the minimum time since death. Ketamine is a medication mainly used for starting and maintaining anesthesia. In recent years ketamine has also been used as a recreational drug, and occasionally as a sedating drug to facilitate sexual assault. In both activities, it has resulted in several deaths. Furthermore, ketamine has been also implicated in suspicious deaths of animals. The present research describes for the first time the development and validation of an analytical method suited to detect ketamine in larvae, pupae, empty puparia, and adults of Calliphora vomitoria L. (Diptera: Calliphoridae), using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (HPLC-MS/MS). This research also considers the effects of ketamine on the survival, developmental rate and morphology (length and width of larvae and pupae) of C. vomitoria. The larvae were reared on liver substrates homogeneously spiked with ketamine concentrations consistent with those found in humans after recreational use (300 ng/mg) or allegedly indicated as capable of causing death in either humans or animals (600 ng/mg). The results demonstrated that (a) HPLC-MS/MS method is applicable to ketamine detection in C. vomitoria immatures, not adults; (b) the presence of ketamine at either concentration in the food substrate significantly delays the developmental time to pupal and adult instar; (d) the survival of C. vomitoria is negatively affected by the presence of ketamine in the substrate; (e) the length and width of larvae and pupae exposed to either ketamine concentration were significantly larger than the control samples. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Predicting long-term survival after coronary artery bypass graft surgery.

PubMed

Karim, Md N; Reid, Christopher M; Huq, Molla; Brilleman, Samuel L; Cochrane, Andrew; Tran, Lavinia; Billah, Baki

2018-02-01

To develop a model for predicting long-term survival following coronary artery bypass graft surgery. This study included 46 573 patients from the Australian and New Zealand Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons (ANZCTS) registry, who underwent isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery between 2001 and 2014. Data were randomly split into development (23 282) and validation (23 291) samples. Cox regression models were fitted separately, using the important preoperative variables, for 4 'time intervals' (31-90 days, 91-365 days, 1-3 years and >3 years), with optimal predictors selected using the bootstrap bagging technique. Model performance was assessed both in validation data and in combined data (development and validation samples). Coefficients of all 4 final models were estimated on the combined data adjusting for hospital-level clustering. The Kaplan-Meier mortality rates estimated in the sample were 1.7% at 90 days, 2.8% at 1 year, 4.4% at 2 years and 6.1% at 3 years. Age, peripheral vascular disease, respiratory disease, reduced ejection fraction, renal dysfunction, arrhythmia, diabetes, hypercholesterolaemia, cerebrovascular disease, hypertension, congestive heart failure, steroid use and smoking were included in all 4 models. However, their magnitude of effect varied across the time intervals. Harrell's C-statistics was 0.83, 0.78, 0.75 and 0.74 for 31-90 days, 91-365 days, 1-3 years and >3 years models, respectively. Models showed excellent discrimination and calibration in validation data. Models were developed for predicting long-term survival at 4 time intervals after isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery. These models can be used in conjunction with the existing 30-day mortality prediction model. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

Conditional survival of pediatric, adolescent, and young adult soft tissue sarcoma and bone tumor patients.

PubMed

Ou, Judy Y; Spraker-Perlman, Holly; Dietz, Andrew C; Smits-Seemann, Rochelle R; Kaul, Sapna; Kirchhoff, Anne C

2017-10-01

Survival estimates for soft tissue sarcomas (STS) and malignant bone tumors (BT) diagnosed in pediatric, adolescent, and young adult patients are not easily available. We present survival estimates based on a patient having survived a defined period of time (conditional survival). Conditional survival estimates for the short-term were calculated for patients from diagnosis to the first five years after diagnosis and for patients surviving in the long-term (up to 20 years after diagnosis). We identified 703 patients who were diagnosed with a STS or BT at age ≤25 years from January 1, 1986 to December 31, 2012 at a large pediatric oncology center in Salt Lake City, Utah, United States. We obtained cancer type, age at diagnosis, primary site, and demographic data from medical records, and vital status through the National Death Index. Cancer stage was available for a subset of the cohort through the Utah Cancer Registry. Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for age and sex, calculated survival estimates for all analyses. Short-term survival improves over time for both sarcomas. Short-term survival for STS from diagnosis (Year 0) did not differ by sex, but short-term survival starting from 1-year post diagnosis was significantly worse for male patients (Survival probability 1-year post-diagnosis [SP1]:77% [95% CI:71-83]) than female patients (SP1:86% [81-92]). Survival for patients who were diagnosed at age ≤10 years (Survival probability at diagnosis [SP0]:85% [79-91]) compared to diagnosis at ages 16-25 years (SP0:67% [59-75]) was significantly better at all time-points from diagnosis to 5-years post-diagnosis. Survival for axial sites (SP0:69% [63-75]) compared to extremities (SP0:84% [79-90]) was significantly worse from diagnosis to 1-year post-diagnosis. Survival for axial BT (SP0: 64% [54-74] was significantly worse than BT in the extremities (SP0:73% [68-79]) from diagnosis to 3-years post diagnosis. Relapsed patients of both sarcoma types had significantly worse short-term survival than non-relapsed patients. Long-term survival for STS in this cohort is 65% at diagnosis, and improves to 86% 5-years post-diagnosis. BT survival improves from 51% at diagnosis to 78% at 5-years post-diagnosis. Conditional survival for short- and long-term STS and BT improve as time from diagnosis increases. Short-term survival was significantly affected by patients' sex, age at diagnosis, cancer site, and relapse status. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Interpreting Significant Discrete-Time Periods in Survival Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schumacker, Randall E.; Denson, Kathleen B.

Discrete-time survival analysis is a new method for educational researchers to employ when looking at the timing of certain educational events. Previous continuous-time methods do not allow for the flexibility inherent in a discrete-time method. Because both time-invariant and time-varying predictor variables can now be used, the interaction of…

Treatment of Pediatric Septic Shock With the Surviving Sepsis Campaign Guidelines and PICU Patient Outcomes.

PubMed

Workman, Jennifer K; Ames, Stefanie G; Reeder, Ron W; Korgenski, E Kent; Masotti, Susan M; Bratton, Susan L; Larsen, Gitte Y

2016-10-01

The Surviving Sepsis Campaign recommends rapid recognition and treatment of severe sepsis and septic shock. Few reports have evaluated the impact of these recommendations in pediatrics. We sought to determine if outcomes in patients who received initial care compliant with the Surviving Sepsis Campaign time goals differed from those treated more slowly. Single center retrospective cohort study. Emergency department and PICU at an academic children's hospital. Three hundred twenty-one patients treated for septic shock in the emergency department and admitted directly to the PICU. None. The exposure was receipt of emergency department care compliant with the Surviving Sepsis Campaign recommendations (delivery of IV fluids, IV antibiotics, and vasoactive infusions within 1 hr of shock recognition). The primary outcome was development of new or progressive multiple organ dysfunction syndrome. Secondary outcomes included mortality, need for mechanical ventilation or vasoactive medications, and hospital and PICU length of stay. Of the 321 children studied, 117 received Surviving Sepsis Campaign compliant care in the emergency department and 204 did not. New or progressive multiple organ dysfunction syndrome developed in nine of the patients (7.7%) who received Surviving Sepsis Campaign compliant care and 25 (12.3%) who did not (p = 0.26). There were 17 deaths; overall mortality rate was 5%. There were no significant differences between groups in any of the secondary outcomes. Although only 36% of patients met the Surviving Sepsis Campaign guideline recommendation of bundled care within 1 hour of shock recognition, 75% of patients received the recommended interventions in less than 3 hours. Treatment for pediatric septic shock in compliance with the Surviving Sepsis Campaign recommendations was not associated with better outcomes compared with children whose initial therapies in the emergency department were administered more slowly. However, all patients were treated rapidly and we report low morbidity and mortality. This underscores the importance of rapid recognition and treatment of septic shock.

Environmental and ecological conditions at Arctic breeding sites have limited effects on true survival rates of adult shorebirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weiser, Emily L.; Lanctot, Richard B.; Brown, Stephen C.; Gates, H. River; Bentzen, Rebecca L.; Bêty, Joël; Boldenow, Megan L.; English, Willow B.; Franks, Samantha E.; Koloski, Laura; Kwon, Eunbi; Lamarre, Jean-Francois; Lank, David B.; Liebezeit, Joseph R.; McKinnon, Laura; Nol, Erica; Rausch, Jennie; Saalfeld, Sarah T.; Senner, Nathan R.; Ward, David H.; Woodard, Paul F.; Sandercock, Brett K.

2018-01-01

Many Arctic shorebird populations are declining, and quantifying adult survival and the effects of anthropogenic factors is a crucial step toward a better understanding of population dynamics. We used a recently developed, spatially explicit Cormack–Jolly–Seber model in a Bayesian framework to obtain broad-scale estimates of true annual survival rates for 6 species of shorebirds at 9 breeding sites across the North American Arctic in 2010–2014. We tested for effects of environmental and ecological variables, study site, nest fate, and sex on annual survival rates of each species in the spatially explicit framework, which allowed us to distinguish between effects of variables on site fidelity versus true survival. Our spatially explicit analysis produced estimates of true survival rates that were substantially higher than previously published estimates of apparent survival for most species, ranging from S = 0.72 to 0.98 across 5 species. However, survival was lower for the arcticolasubspecies of Dunlin (Calidris alpina arcticola; S = 0.54), our only study taxon that migrates through the East Asian–Australasian Flyway. Like other species that use that flyway, arcticola Dunlin could be experiencing unsustainably low survival rates as a result of loss of migratory stopover habitat. Survival rates of our study species were not affected by timing of snowmelt or summer temperature, and only 2 species showed minor variation among study sites. Furthermore, although previous reproductive success, predator abundance, and the availability of alternative prey each affected survival of one species, no factors broadly affected survival across species. Overall, our findings of few effects of environmental or ecological variables suggest that annual survival rates of adult shorebirds are generally robust to conditions at Arctic breeding sites. Instead, conditions at migratory stopovers or overwintering sites might be driving adult survival rates and should be the focus of future studies.

The effect of time to defibrillation and targeted temperature management on functional survival after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.

PubMed

Drennan, Ian R; Lin, Steve; Thorpe, Kevin E; Morrison, Laurie J

2014-11-01

Cardiac arrest physiology has been proposed to occur in three distinct phases: electrical, circulatory and metabolic. There is limited research evaluating the relationship of the 3-phase model of cardiac arrest to functional survival at hospital discharge. Furthermore, the effect of post-cardiac arrest targeted temperature management (TTM) on functional survival during each phase is unknown. To determine the effect of TTM on the relationship between the time of initial defibrillation during each phase of cardiac arrest and functional survival at hospital discharge. This was a retrospective observational study of consecutive adult (≥18 years) out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) patients with initial shockable rhythms. Included patients obtained a return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) and were eligible for TTM. Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine predictors of functional survival at hospital discharge. There were 20,165 OHCA treated by EMS and 871 patients were eligible for TTM. Of these patients, 622 (71.4%) survived to hospital discharge and 487 (55.9%) had good functional survival. Good functional survival was associated with younger age (OR 0.94; 95% CI 0.93-0.95), shorter times from collapse to initial defibrillation (OR 0.73; 95% CI 0.65-0.82), and use of post-cardiac arrest TTM (OR 1.49; 95% CI 1.07-2.30). Functional survival decreased during each phase of the model (65.3% vs. 61.7% vs. 50.2%, P<0.001). Functional survival at hospital discharge was associated with shorter times to initial defibrillation and was decreased during each successive phase of the 3-phase model. Post-cardiac arrest TTM was associated with improved functional survival. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Inverse relationship between Alzheimer's disease and cancer, and other factors contributing to Alzheimer's disease: a systematic review.

PubMed

Shafi, Ovais

2016-11-22

The AD etiology is yet not properly known. Interactions among environmental factors, multiple susceptibility genes and aging, contribute to AD. This study investigates the factors that play role in causing AD and how changes in cellular pathways contribute to AD. PUBMED database, MEDLINE database and Google Scholar were searched with no date restrictions for published articles involving cellular pathways with roles in cancers, cell survival, growth, proliferation, development, aging, and also contributing to Alzheimer's disease. This research explores inverse relationship between AD and cancer, also investigates other factors behind AD using several already published research literature to find the etiology of AD. Cancer and Alzheimer's disease have inverse relationship in many aspects such as P53, estrogen, neurotrophins and growth factors, growth and proliferation, cAMP, EGFR, Bcl-2, apoptosis pathways, IGF-1, HSV, TDP-43, APOE variants, notch signals and presenilins, NCAM, TNF alpha, PI3K/AKT/MTOR pathway, telomerase, ROS, ACE levels. AD occurs when brain neurons have weakened growth, cell survival responses, maintenance mechanisms, weakened anti-stress responses such as Vimentin, Carbonic anhydrases, HSPs, SAPK. In cancer, these responses are upregulated and maintained. Evolutionarily conserved responses and maintenance mechanisms such as FOXO are impaired in AD. Countermeasures or compensatory mechanisms by AD affected neurons such as Tau, Beta Amyloid, S100, are last attempts for survival which may be protective for certain time, or can speed up AD in Alzheimer's microenvironment via C-ABL activation, GSK3, neuro-inflammation. Alzheimer's disease and Cancer have inverse relationship; many factors that are upregulated in any cancer to sustain growth and survival are downregulated in Alzheimer's disease contributing to neuro-degeneration. When aged neurons or genetically susceptible neurons have weakened growth, cell survival and anti-stress responses, age related gene expression changes, altered regulation of cell death and maintenance mechanisms, they contribute to Alzheimer's disease. Countermeasures by AD neurons such as Beta Amyloid Plaques, NFTs, S100, are last attempts for survival and this provides neuroprotection for certain time and ultimately may become pathological and speed up AD. This study may contribute in developing new potential diagnostic tests, interventions and treatments.

Seasonal life history trade-offs in two leafwing butterflies: Delaying reproductive development increases life expectancy.

PubMed

McElderry, Robert M

2016-04-01

Surviving inhospitable periods or seasons may greatly affect fitness. Evidence of this exists in the prevalence of dormant stages in the life cycles of most insects. Here I focused on butterflies with distinct seasonal morphological types (not a genetic polymorphism) in which one morphological type, or form, delays reproduction until favorable conditions return, while the other form develops in an environment that favors direct reproduction. For two butterflies, Anaea aidea and A. andria, I tested the hypothesis that the development of each seasonal form involves a differential allocation of resources to survival at eclosion. I assayed differences in adult longevity among summer and winter forms in either a warm, active environment or a cool, calm environment. Winter form adults lived 40 times longer than summer form but only in calm, cool conditions. The magnitude of this difference provided compelling evidence that the winter form body plan and metabolic strategy (i.e. resource conservatism) favor long term survival. This research suggests that winter form adults maintain lowered metabolic rate, a common feature of diapause, to conserve resources and delay senescence while overwintering. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of Some Pesticides on Development of Ascaris suum Eggs

PubMed Central

Yu, Yong-Man; Kim, Jin-Won; Na, Won-Seok; Youn, Young-Nam; Choi, In-Wook

2014-01-01

To evaluate the effects of pesticides to parasite eggs, Ascaris suum eggs were incubated with 5 different pesticides (1:1,500-1:2,000 dilutions of 2% emamectin benzoate, 5% spinetoram, 5% indoxacarb, 1% deltamethrin, and 5% flufenoxuron; all v/v) at 20℃ for 6 weeks, and microscopically evaluated the egg survival and development on a weekly basis. The survival rate of A. suum eggs incubated in normal saline (control eggs) was 90±3% at 6 weeks. However, the survival rates of eggs treated with pesticides were 75-85% at this time, thus significantly lower than the control value. Larval development in control eggs commenced at 3 weeks, and 73±3% of eggs had internal larvae at 6 weeks. Larvae were evident in pesticide-treated eggs at 3-4 weeks, and the proportions of eggs carrying larvae at 6 weeks (36±3%-54±3%) were significantly lower than that of the control group. Thus, pesticides tested at levels similar to those used in agricultural practices exhibited low-level ovicidal activity and delayed embryogenesis of A. suum eggs, although some differences were evident among the tested pesticides. PMID:24623893

[Biology of gastrointestinal nematodes of ruminants].

PubMed

Manfredi, M T

2006-09-01

The development and survival of free-living stages of gastro-intestinal nematodes of small ruminants are influenced by several abiotic and biotic factors. Within the abiotic factors, most important are the environmental temperature and humidity. They regulate the development of larvae from eggs dispersed on the pasture by the animals faeces. Each parasite species that infect ruminants requires a different time to development, depending on temperature and humidity. Among trichostrongylids, Ostertagia, Teladorsagia and Nematodirus show a strong adaptation to low temperatures. Nematodirus larvae are able to survive to winter inside the egg shell. Temperature and humidity influence the distribution and survival of larvae on pasture. The larval third stage can migrate from faeces to pasture vegetation and they accumulate at the basis of vegetation where stay during the day or in the soil to avoid the desiccation. The forage species affects the migration of larvae on herbage too. Many biological factors contribute to disperse the larvae on the pasture. Dung burying beetles, coprophagous beetles and earthworms can greatly reduce the larvae of some trichostrongylids on pasture. They contribute to the spread of the faecal material on the pasture and allow the larval death as a consequence of drying.

Influence of starvation on the larval development of Hyas araneus (Decapoda, Majidae)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anger, K.; Dawirs, R. R.

1981-09-01

The influence of starvation on larval development of the spider crab Hyas araneus (L.) was studied in laboratory experiments. No larval stage suffering from continual lack of food had sufficient energy reserves to reach the next instar. Maximal survival times were observed at four different constant temperatures (2°, 6°, 12° and 18 °C). In general, starvation resistance decreased as temperatures increased: from 72 to 12days in the zoea-1, from 48 to 18 days in the zoea-2, and from 48 to 15 days in the megalopa stage. The length of maximal survival is of the same order of magnitude as the duration of each instar at a given temperature. “Sublethal limits” of early starvation periods were investigated at 12 °C: Zoea larvae must feed right from the beginning of their stage (at high food concentration) and for more than one fifth, approximately, of that stage to have at least some chance of surviving to the next instar, independent of further prey availability. The minimum time in which enough reserves are accumulated for successfully completing the instar without food is called “point-of-reserve-saturation” (PRS). If only this minimum period of essential initial feeding precedes starvation, development in both zoeal stages is delayed and mortality is greater, when compared to the fed control. Starvation periods beginning right after hatching of the first zoea cause a prolongation of this instar and, surprisingly, a slight shortening of the second stage. The delay in the zoea-1 increases proportionally to the length of the initial fasting period. If more than approximately 70 % of the maximum possible survival time has elapsed without food supply, the larvae become unable to recover and to moult to the second stage even when re-fed (“point-of-no-return”, PNR). The conclusion, based on own observations and on literature data, is that initial feeding is of paramount importance in the early development of planktotrophic decapod larvae. Taking into account hormonal and other developmental processes during the first moult cycle, a general hypothesis is proposed to explain the key role of first food uptake as well as the response pattern of the zoea-1 stage to differential starvation periods.

Survival of asbestos insulation workers with mesothelioma.

PubMed Central

Ribak, J; Selikoff, I J

1992-01-01

Malignant mesothelioma is a lethal disease. It is rare in the general population; however, workers exposed to asbestos suffer significant burdens of the neoplasm. The survival time of 457 consecutive fatal cases of pleural and peritoneal mesothelioma that occurred among 17,800 asbestos insulation workers observed prospectively from 1 January 1967 to 1 January 1987 was studied. Mean survival time from initial presentation of the disease to death was 11.4 months for the pleural mesothelioma patients compared with 7.4 months for the peritoneal group. This difference was statistically significant. Mean survival time from diagnosis to death was shorter for both groups of patients: 8.4 months for pleural mesothelioma v 5.8 months for the peritoneal cases. In conclusion, survival time in mesothelioma patients is short; most die within a year from the onset of the initial symptoms. No effective therapy is yet available. PMID:1419863

A diagnostic for quantifying heat flux from a thermite spray

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

E. P. Nixon; M. L. Pantoya; D. J. Prentice

2010-02-01

Characterizing the combustion behaviors of energetic materials requires diagnostic tools that are often not readily or commercially available. For example, a jet of thermite spray provides a high temperature and pressure reaction that can also be highly corrosive and promote undesirable conditions for the survivability of any sensor. Developing a diagnostic to quantify heat flux from a thermite spray is the objective of this study. Quick response sensors such as thin film heat flux sensors cannot survive the harsh conditions of the spray, but more rugged sensors lack the response time for the resolution desired. A sensor that will allowmore » for adequate response time while surviving the entire test duration was constructed. The sensor outputs interior temperatures of the probes at known locations and utilizes an inverse heat conduction code to calculate heat flux values. The details of this device are discussed and illustrated. Temperature and heat flux measurements of various thermite sprays are reported. Results indicate that this newly designed heat flux sensor provides quantitative data with good repeatability suitable for characterizing energetic material combustion.« less

Cometary impact and amino acid survival - Chemical kinetics and thermochemistry

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ross, D.S.

2006-01-01

The Arrhenius parameters for the initiating reactions in butane thermolysis and the formation of soot, reliable to at least 3000 K, have been applied to the question of the survival of amino acids in cometary impacts on early Earth. The pressure/temperature/time course employed here was that developed in hydrocode simulations for kilometer-sized comets (Pierazzo and Chyba, 1999), with attention to the track below 3000 K where it is shown that potential stabilizing effects of high pressure become unimportant kinetically. The question of survival can then be considered without the need for assignment of activation volumes and the related uncertainties in their application to extreme conditions. The exercise shows that the characteristic times for soot formation in the interval fall well below the cooling periods for impacts ranging from fully vertical down to about 9?? above horizontal. Decarboxylation, which emerges as more rapid than soot formation below 2000-3000 K, continues further down to extremely narrow impact angles, and accordingly cometa??ry delivery of amino acids to early Earth is highly unlikely. ?? 2006 American Chemical Society.

Helicopter crashes into water: warning time, final position, and other factors affecting survival.

PubMed

Brooks, Christopher J; MacDonald, Conor V; Baker, Susan P; Shanahan, Dennis F; Haaland, Wren L

2014-04-01

According to 40 yr of data, the fatality rate for a helicopter crash into water is approximately 25%. Does warning time and the final position of the helicopter in the water influence the survival rate? The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) database was queried to identify helicopter crashes into water between 1981 and 2011 in the Gulf of Mexico and Hawaii. Fatality rate, amount of warning time prior to the crash, and final position of the helicopter were identified. There were 133 helicopters that crashed into water with 456 crew and passengers. Of these, 119 occupants (26%) did not survive; of those who did survive, 38% were injured. Twelve died after making a successful escape from the helicopter. Crashes with < 15 s warning had a fatality rate of 22%, compared to 12% for 16-60 s warning and 5% for > 1 min. However, more than half of fatalities (57%) came from crashes for which the warning time could not be determined. Lack of warning time and how to survive in the water after the crash should be a topic for study in all marine survival/aircraft ditching courses. Investigators should be trained to provide estimates of warning time when investigating helicopter crashes into water.

Is AIDS a floating point between HIV seroconversion and death? Insights from the Tricontinental Seroconverter Study.

PubMed

van Benthem, B H; Veugelers, P J; Cornelisse, P G; Strathdee, S A; Kaldor, J M; Shafer, K A; Coutinho, R A; van Griensven, G J

1998-06-18

To investigate the significance of the time from seroconversion to AIDS (incubation time) and other covariates for survival from AIDS to death. In survival analysis, survival from AIDS to death was compared for different categories of length of incubation time adjusted and unadjusted for other covariates, and significant predictors for survival from AIDS to death were investigated. Survival after AIDS was not affected by the incubation time in univariate as well as in multivariate analyses. Predictive factors for progression from AIDS to death were age at seroconversion, type of AIDS diagnosis, and CD4 cell count at AIDS. The relative hazard for age at seroconversion increased 1.38-fold over 10 years. Men with a CD4 cell count at AIDS of <130 x 10(6)/l had a twofold higher risk in progression to death than men with higher CD4 cell counts. Persons diagnosed with lymphoma had a sixfold higher risk of progression to death than persons with Kaposi's sarcoma or opportunistic infections. The incubation time as well as other factors before AIDS did not affect survival after AIDS. Survival from AIDS to death can be predicted by data obtained at the time of AIDS diagnosis, such as type of diagnosis, age and CD4 cell count. AIDS seems to be a significant point in progression to death, and not just a floating point between infection and death affected by prior factors for persons who did not receive effective therapy and did not have long incubation times.

Biochemical Response to Ursodeoxycholic Acid Predicts Survival in a North American Cohort of Primary Biliary Cirrhosis Patients

PubMed Central

Lammert, Craig; Juran, Brian D.; Schlicht, Erik; Chan, Landon L.; Atkinson, Elizabeth J.; de Andrade, Mariza; Lazaridis, Konstantinos N.

2014-01-01

Background Biochemical response to Ursodeoxycholic Acid among patients with Primary Biliary Cirrhosis remains variable and there is no agreement of an ideal model. Novel assessment of response coupled to histologic progression was recently defined by the Toronto criteria. We retrospectively assessed transplant-free survival and clinical outcomes associated with Ursodeoxycholic Acid response to evaluate the Toronto criteria using a large North American cohort of PBC patients. Methods 398 PBC patients from the Mayo Clinic PBC Genetic Epidemiology (MCPGE) Registry were assessed for Ursodeoxycholic Acid treatment and biochemical response per the Toronto criteria. Responders were defined by reduction in alkaline phosphatase to less than or equal to 1.67 times the upper normal limit by 2 years of treatment, whereas non-responders had alkaline phosphatase values greater than 1.67 times the upper normal limit. Probability of survival was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Results 302 (76%) patients were responders and 96 (24%) were non-responders. Significantly more non-responders developed adverse events related to chronic liver disease compared to responders (Hazard Ratio (HR): 2.77, P = 0.001). Biochemical responders and early-stage disease at treatment start was associated with improved overall transplant-free survival compared to non-responders (HR: 1.9) and patients with late stage disease (HR: 2.7) after age and sex adjustment. Conclusions The Toronto criteria are capable of identifying Ursodeoxycholic Acid-treated Primary Biliary Cirrhosis patients at risk of poor transplant-free survival and adverse clinical outcomes. Our data reveal that despite advanced disease at diagnosis, biochemical response per the Toronto criteria associates with improved overall transplant-free survival. PMID:24317935

Temperature, hydric environment, and prior pathogen exposure alter the experimental severity of chytridiomycosis in boreal toads

USGS Publications Warehouse

Murphy, Peter J.; St-Hilaire, Sophie; Corn, Paul Stephen

2011-01-01

Prevalence of the pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), implicated in amphibian population declines worldwide, is associated with habitat moisture and temperature, but few studies have varied these factors and measured the response to infection in amphibian hosts. We evaluated how varying humidity, contact with water, and temperature affected the manifestation of chytridiomycosis in boreal toads Anaxyrus (Bufo) boreas boreas and how prior exposure to Bd affects the likelihood of survival after re-exposure, such as may occur seasonally in long-lived species. Humidity did not affect survival or the degree of Bd infection, but a longer time in contact with water increased the likelihood of mortality. After exposure to ~106 Bd zoospores, all toads in continuous contact with water died within 30 d. Moreover, Bd-exposed toads that were disease-free after 64 d under dry conditions, developed lethal chytridiomycosis within 70 d of transfer to wet conditions. Toads in unheated aquaria (mean = 15°C) survived less than 48 d, while those in moderately heated aquaria (mean = 18°C) survived 115 d post-exposure and exhibited behavioral fever, selecting warmer sites across a temperature gradient. We also found benefits of prior Bd infection: previously exposed toads survived 3 times longer than Bd-naïve toads after re-exposure to 106 zoospores (89 vs. 30 d), but only when dry microenvironments were available. This study illustrates how the outcome of Bd infection in boreal toads is environmentally dependent: when continuously wet, high reinfection rates may overwhelm defenses, but periodic drying, moderate warming, and previous infection may allow infected toads to extend their survival.

The duration of hypotension before the initiation of antibiotic treatment is a critical determinant of survival in a murine model of Escherichia coli septic shock: association with serum lactate and inflammatory cytokine levels.

PubMed

Kumar, Anand; Haery, Cameron; Paladugu, Bhanu; Kumar, Aseem; Symeoneides, Simon; Taiberg, Leo; Osman, Jailan; Trenholme, Gordon; Opal, Steven M; Goldfarb, Roy; Parrillo, Joseph E

2006-01-15

This study was designed to examine the relationship between the timing of antibiotic treatment and both survival rates and hemodynamic/inflammatory correlates of survival in a murine model of Escherichia coli septic shock. Surgical implantation of an E. coli (O18:K1:H7)-laced, gelatin capsule-encased fibrinogen clot was used to generate a bacteremic model of murine septic shock. Survival duration, hemodynamic responses, and circulating serum tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-alpha , interleukin (IL)-6, and lactate levels were assessed in relation to increasing delays in or absence of antibiotic treatment. A critical inflection point with respect to survival occurred between 12 and 15 h after implantation. When initiated at or before 12 h, antibiotic treatment resulted in < or = 20% mortality, but, when initiated at or after 15 h, it resulted in >85% mortality. Physiologically relevant hypotension developed in untreated septic mice by 12 h after implantation. Values for heart rate differed between untreated septic mice and sham-infected control mice by 6 h after implantation, whereas values for cardiac output and stroke volume did not differ until at least 18-24 h after implantation. Antibiotic treatment initiated > or = 12 h after implantation was associated with persistence of increased circulating serum lactate, TNF- alpha , and IL-6 levels. The timing of antibiotic treatment relative to hypotension is closely associated with survival in this murine model of septic shock. Delay in antibiotic treatment results in the persistence of inflammatory/stress markers even after antibiotic treatment is initiated.

Biochemical response to ursodeoxycholic acid predicts survival in a North American cohort of primary biliary cirrhosis patients.

PubMed

Lammert, Craig; Juran, Brian D; Schlicht, Erik; Chan, Landon L; Atkinson, Elizabeth J; de Andrade, Mariza; Lazaridis, Konstantinos N

2014-10-01

Biochemical response to ursodeoxycholic acid among patients with primary biliary cirrhosis remains variable, and there is no agreement of an ideal model. Novel assessment of response coupled to histologic progression was recently defined by the Toronto criteria. We retrospectively assessed transplant-free survival and clinical outcomes associated with ursodeoxycholic acid response to evaluate the Toronto criteria using a large North American cohort of PBC patients. Three hundred and ninety-eight PBC patients from the Mayo Clinic PBC Genetic Epidemiology Registry were assessed for ursodeoxycholic acid treatment and biochemical response per the Toronto criteria. Responders were defined by reduction in alkaline phosphatase to less than or equal to 1.67 times the upper normal limit by 2 years of treatment, whereas non-responders had alkaline phosphatase values greater than 1.67 times the upper normal limit. Probability of survival was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Three hundred and two (76 %) patients were responders and 96 (24 %) were non-responders. Significantly more non-responders developed adverse events related to chronic liver disease compared to responders (hazard ratio (HR) 2.77, P = 0.001). Biochemical responders and early-stage disease at treatment start was associated with improved overall transplant-free survival compared to non-responders (HR 1.9) and patients with late-stage disease (HR 2.7) after age and sex adjustment. The Toronto criteria are capable of identifying ursodeoxycholic acid-treated primary biliary cirrhosis patients at risk of poor transplant-free survival and adverse clinical outcomes. Our data reveal that despite advanced disease at diagnosis, biochemical response per the Toronto criteria associates with improved overall transplant-free survival.

[Comparative analysis of TACE alone or plus RFA in the treatment of 167 cases of intermediate and advanced staged primary hepatocellular carcinoma].

PubMed

Zhao, Ming; Wang, Jian-peng; Wu, Pei-hong; Zhang, Fu-jun; Huang, Zi-lin; Li, Wang; Zhang, Liang; Pan, Chang-chuan; Li, Chuan-xing; Jiang, Yong

2010-11-09

To evaluate the clinical efficacy and survival rate of transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) alone or plus radiofrequency ablation (RFA) in patients with intermediate or advanced stage primary hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). In this retrospective study, 467 cases received RFA or TACE plus RFA. Among them, 167 cases with strict clinical procedure (TACE alone or plus RFA) and complete follow-up data were included. Eighty-seven cases received TACE and 80 cases had TACE plus RFA between January 2000 and December 2006. Hierarchical analyses were performed using log-rank tests and survival curve was estimated by Kaplan-Meier method. A total of 167 patients received TACE alone or plus RFA for a follow-up period of 1 to 89 months. In the TACE alone group, the time-to-progression (TTP) was an average of 3.6 months. The median survival was 13 months, one-year survival rate 52.9%, three-year survival rate 11.5% and five-year survival rate 4.6%. In the TACE plus RFA group, the TTP time was an average of 10.8 months. The median survival time was 30 months, one-year survival rate 85.0%, three-year survival rate 45.0% and five-year survival rate 11.3%. In the TACE alone group, the median survival of intermediate stage HCC was 14 months, one-year survival rate 62.2%, three-year survival rate 13.3% and five-year survival rate 4.4%; In the TACE plus RFA group, the median survival of intermediate stage HCC was 14 months, one-year survival rate 90.1%, three-year survival rate 52.9% and five-year survival rate 13.7%. All differences of two groups has statistical significance (P < 0.05). In intermediate stage HCC, the median survival of TACE alone group was 14 months, one-year survival rate 62.2%, three-year survival rate 13.3%, five-year survival rate 4.4% versus 32 months, 90.1%, 52.9%, 13.7% in the TACE plus RFA group respectively. For the advanced stage HCC, the median survival time was 12 months, one-year survival rate 35%, three-year survival rate 7.1% and five-year survival rate 0 in the TACE alone group versus 28 months, 62.1%, 24.1% and 6.9% in the TACE plus RFA group (P = 0.00). There was significantly statistic difference between both groups in intermediate and advanced staging HCC. Among them, 60/485 (12.4%) patients required a therapy of post-TACE hepatic dysfunctions versus 13/168 (7.7%) in the TACE plus RFA group (P = 0.004, ANOVA method). The regimen of TACE plus RFA has the advantages of tumor control, liver function protection and survival extending in the treatment of HCC than TACE alone in intermediate or advanced stage HCC.

Effects of photoperiod on boll weevil (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) development, survival, and reproduction.

PubMed

Greenberg, S M; Sappington, T W; Adamczyk, J J; Liu, T-X; Setamou, M

2008-12-01

Effects of photoperiod on development, survival, feeding, and oviposition of boll weevils, Anthonomus grandis grandis Boheman, were assessed under five different photophases (24, 14, 12, 10, and 0 h) at a constant 27 degrees C temperature and 65% RH in the laboratory. Analyses of our results detected positive relationships between photoperiod and puncturing (mean numbers of oviposition and feeding punctures per day), and oviposition (oviposition punctures/oviposition+feeding punctures) activities, and the proportion of squares attacked by boll weevil females. When boll weevil females developed in light:darkness cycles, they produced a significantly higher percentage of eggs developing to adulthood than those developed in 24-h light or dark conditions. In long photoperiod (24:0 and 14:10 h), the number of female progeny was significantly higher and their development time was significantly shorter than those developed in short photoperiod (0:24 and 10:14 h). Lifetime oviposition was significantly highest at 12- and 14-h photophase, lowest at 0- and 10-h photophase, and intermediate at 24 h of light. Life table calculations indicated that boll weevil populations developed in a photoperiod of 14:10 and 12:12 (L:D) h will increase an average of two-fold each generation (Ro) compared with boll weevils developed in 24:0- and 10:14-h photoperiods and 15-fold compared with those at 0:24 h. Knowledge of the photoperiod-dependent population growth potential is critical for understanding population dynamics to better develop sampling protocols and timing insecticide applications.

Evaluating methodological assumptions of a catch-curve survival estimation of unmarked precocial shorebird chickes

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, Conor P.; Gardner, Beth

2013-01-01

Estimating productivity for precocial species can be difficult because young birds leave their nest within hours or days of hatching and detectability thereafter can be very low. Recently, a method for using a modified catch-curve to estimate precocial chick daily survival for age based count data was presented using Piping Plover (Charadrius melodus) data from the Missouri River. However, many of the assumptions of the catch-curve approach were not fully evaluated for precocial chicks. We developed a simulation model to mimic Piping Plovers, a fairly representative shorebird, and age-based count-data collection. Using the simulated data, we calculated daily survival estimates and compared them with the known daily survival rates from the simulation model. We conducted these comparisons under different sampling scenarios where the ecological and statistical assumptions had been violated. Overall, the daily survival estimates calculated from the simulated data corresponded well with true survival rates of the simulation. Violating the accurate aging and the independence assumptions did not result in biased daily survival estimates, whereas unequal detection for younger or older birds and violating the birth death equilibrium did result in estimator bias. Assuring that all ages are equally detectable and timing data collection to approximately meet the birth death equilibrium are key to the successful use of this method for precocial shorebirds.

Demographic outcomes of diverse migration strategies assessed in a metapopulation of tundra swans.

PubMed

Ely, Craig R; Meixell, Brandt W

2016-01-01

Migration is a prominent aspect of the life history of many avian species, but the demographic consequences of variable migration strategies have only infrequently been investigated, and rarely when using modern technological and analytical methods for assessing survival, movement patterns, and long-term productivity in the context of life history theory. We monitored the fates of 50 satellite-implanted tundra swans (Cygnus columbianus) over 4 years from five disparate breeding areas in Alaska, and used known-fate analyses to estimate monthly survival probability relative to migration distance, breeding area, migratory flyway, breeding status, and age. We specifically tested whether migratory birds face a trade-off, whereby long-distance migrants realize higher survival rates at the cost of lower productivity because of reduced time on breeding areas relative to birds that migrate shorter distances and spend more time on breeding areas. Annual migration distances varied significantly among breeding areas (1020 to 12720 km), and were strongly negatively correlated with time spent on breeding areas (r = -0.986). Estimates of annual survival probability varied by wintering area (Pacific coast, Alaska Peninsula, and Eastern seaboard) and ranged from 0.79 (95%CI: 0.70-0.88) to 1.0, depending on criteria used to discern mortalities from radio failures. We did not find evidence for a linear relationship between migration distance and survival as swans from the breeding areas with the shortest and longest migration distances had the highest survival probabilities. Survival was lower in the first year post-marking than in subsequent years, but there was not support for seasonal differences in survival. Productivity varied among breeding populations and was generally inversely correlated to survival, but not migration distance or time spent on breeding areas. Tundra swans conformed to a major tenet of life history theory, as populations with the highest survival generally had the lowest productivity. The lack of a uniform relationship between time spent on breeding areas and productivity, or time spent on wintering areas and survival, indicates that factors other than temporal investment dictate demographic outcomes in this species. The tremendous diversity of migration strategies we identify in Alaskan tundra swans, without clear impacts on survival, underscores the ability of this species to adapt to different environments and climatic regimes.

An inflammation-related nomogram for predicting the survival of patients with non-small cell lung cancer after pulmonary lobectomy.

PubMed

Wang, Ying; Qu, Xiao; Kam, Ngar-Woon; Wang, Kai; Shen, Hongchang; Liu, Qi; Du, Jiajun

2018-06-26

Emerging inflammatory response biomarkers are developed to predict the survival of patients with cancer, the aim of our study is to establish an inflammation-related nomogram based on the classical predictive biomarkers to predict the survivals of patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Nine hundred and fifty-two NSCLC patients with lung cancer surgery performed were enrolled into this study. The cutoffs of inflammatory response biomarkers were determined by Receiver operating curve (ROC). Univariate and multivariate analysis were conducted to select independent prognostic factors to develop the nomogram. The median follow-up time was 40.0 months (range, 1 to 92 months). The neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (cut-off: 3.10, HR:1.648, P = 0.045) was selected to establish the nomogram which could predict the 5-year OS probability. The C-index of nomogram was 0.72 and the 5-year OS calibration curve displayed an optimal agreement between the actual observed outcomes and the predictive results. Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio was shown to be a valuable biomarker for predicting survival of patients with NSCLC. The addition of neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio could improve the accuracy and predictability of the nomogram in order to provide reference for clinicians to assess patient outcomes.

Survival of teeth treated with cast post and cores: A retrospective analysis over an observation period of up to 19.5 years.

PubMed

Raedel, Michael; Fiedler, Cliff; Jacoby, Stephan; Boening, Klaus W

2015-07-01

Scientific data about the long-term survival of teeth treated with cast post and cores are scarce. Retrospective studies often use different target events for their analyses. A comparison is therefore complicated. For associated tooth-, jaw-, and patient-related factors little evidence exists as to their effect on survival. The purpose of this study was to extend the knowledge on the survival of teeth treated with cast post and cores for observation periods of more than 10 years. A decrease or increase in survival times according to the presence or absence of associated parameters needs to be evaluated. A retrospective evaluation was conducted of all cast post and cores inserted in 1 university clinic between January 1992 and June 2011. A Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was carried out by using extraction as the target event. The survival curves for different tooth types, the presence or absence of adjacent teeth, and the prosthetic restoration of the respective jaws were compared by using the log-rank test (α=.05). A Cox regression model was calculated for multivariate analyses. A total of 717 cast post and cores for 343 patients were recorded. The mean survival time was 13.5 years. A statistically significant decrease in survival times was found for canines (11.9 years) and premolars (13.4 years) versus molars (14.1 years), no adjacent teeth (10.6 years) versus at least 1 adjacent tooth (13.8 years), and the restoration with removable dental prostheses (12.5 years) versus fixed dental prostheses and single crowns (13.9 years). The largest reduction in survival time was found for teeth being used as an abutment for a double crown-retained removable partial dental prosthesis (telescopic denture) (9.8 years). Tooth type and adjacent tooth status remained as significant variables within the multivariate Cox regression model. Cast post and cores have an acceptable long-term survival time. Because different factors may influence survival, considering these factors in treatment planning may increase the long-term success of these restorations. Copyright © 2015 Editorial Council for the Journal of Prosthetic Dentistry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Primary nodal hemangiosarcoma in four dogs.

PubMed

Chan, Catherine M; Zwahlen, Courtney H; de Lorimier, Louis-Philippe; Yeomans, Stephen M; Hoffmann, Karon L; Moore, Antony S

2016-11-01

CASE DESCRIPTION 4 dogs with a slow-growing mass in the cervical region were evaluated. CLINICAL FINDINGS All dogs had no clinical signs at the time of the evaluation. There was no apparent evidence of visceral metastases or other primary tumor based on available CT or MRI data for any dog. TREATMENT AND OUTCOME For each dog, surgery to remove the mass was performed. Histologic examination of the excised tissue revealed a completely excised grade 1 or 2 lymph node hemangiosarcoma. All dogs received adjuvant chemotherapy; 2 dogs underwent curative intent chemotherapy, 1 dog underwent metronomic treatment with cyclophosphamide, and 1 dog underwent metronomic treatment with chlorambucil. The survival time was 259 days in 1 dog; 3 dogs were still alive 615, 399, and 365 days after surgery. CLINICAL RELEVANCE Primary nodal hemangiosarcoma in dogs is a rare and, to the authors' knowledge, previously undescribed disease that appears to develop in the cervical lymph nodes as a slow-growing mass or masses. Surgical excision and adjunct treatment resulted in long survival times for 3 of the 4 dogs of the present report. Given the aggressive biologic behavior of hemangiosarcomas in other body locations, adjunct chemotherapy should be considered for affected dogs, although its role in the cases described in this report was unclear. Additional clinical information is required to further characterize the biologic behavior of this tumor type and determine the expected survival times and associated risk factors in dogs.

Effects of hatching time for larval ambystomatid salamanders

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boone, M.D.; Scott, D.E.; Niewiarowski, P.H.

2002-01-01

In aquatic communities, the phenology of breeding may influence species interactions. In the early-breeding marbled salamander, Ambystoma opacum, timing of pond filling may determine whether interactions among larvae are competitive or predatory. The objectives of our studies were to determine how time of egg hatching affected size, larval period, and survival to metamorphosis in A. opacum, and if early-hatching in A. opacum influenced the competitive and predator-prey relationships with smaller larvae of the mole salamander, Ambystoma talpoideum. Salamander larvae were reared from hatching through metamorphosis in large, outdoor enclosures located in a natural temporary pond in Aiken County, South Carolina, in two experiments. In study 1, we reared early- and late-hatching A. opacum larvae separately from hatching through metamorphosis. In study 2, we examined how early- versus late-hatching A. opacum affected a syntopic species, A. talpoideum. In general, early-hatching A. opacum were larger and older at metamorphosis, had greater survival, and left the pond earlier than late-hatching larvae. Ambystoma talpoideum reared in the presence of early-hatching A. opacum had lower survival than in controls, suggesting that A. opacum may predate upon A. talpoideum when they gain a growth advantage over later-hatching larvae. Our studies demonstrate that time of pond filling and phenology of breeding may influence population dynamics and alter the nature of relationships that develop among species.

Conditional survival is greater than overall survival at diagnosis in patients with osteosarcoma and Ewing's sarcoma.

PubMed

Miller, Benjamin J; Lynch, Charles F; Buckwalter, Joseph A

2013-11-01

Conditional survival is a measure of the risk of mortality given that a patient has survived a defined period of time. These estimates are clinically helpful, but have not been reported previously for osteosarcoma or Ewing's sarcoma. We determined the conditional survival of patients with osteosarcoma and Ewing's sarcoma given survival of 1 or more years. We used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program database to investigate cases of osteosarcoma and Ewing's sarcoma in patients younger than 40 years from 1973 to 2009. The SEER Program is managed by the National Cancer Institute and provides survival data gathered from population-based cancer registries. We used an actuarial life table analysis to determine any cancer cause-specific 5-year survival estimates conditional on 1 to 5 years of survival after diagnosis. We performed a similar analysis to determine 20-year survival from the time of diagnosis. The estimated 5-year survival improved each year after diagnosis. For local/regional osteosarcoma, the 5-year survival improved from 74.8% at baseline to 91.4% at 5 years-meaning that if a patient with localized osteosarcoma lives for 5 years, the chance of living for another 5 years is 91.4%. Similarly, the 5-year survivals for local/regional Ewing's sarcoma improved from 72.9% at baseline to 92.5% at 5 years, for metastatic osteosarcoma 35.5% at baseline to 85.4% at 5 years, and for metastatic Ewing's sarcoma 31.7% at baseline to 83.6% at 5 years. The likelihood of 20-year cause-specific survival from the time of diagnosis in osteosarcoma and Ewing's sarcoma was almost 90% or greater after 10 years of survival, suggesting that while most patients will remain disease-free indefinitely, some experience cancer-related complications years after presumed eradication. The 5-year survival estimates of osteosarcoma and Ewing's sarcoma improve with each additional year of patient survival. Knowledge of a changing risk profile is useful in counseling patients with time. The presence of cause-specific mortality decades after treatment supports lifelong monitoring in this population. Level II, prognostic study. See the Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Evaluation of the 2008 Predictions of Run-Timing and Survival of Wild Migrant Yearling Chinook and Steelhead on the Columbia and Snake Rivers.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beer, W. Nicholas; Iltis, Susannah; Anderson, James J.

2009-01-01

Columbia Basin Research uses the COMPASS model on a daily basis during the outmigration of Snake River Chinook and steelhead smolts to predict downstream passage and survival. Fish arrival predictions and observations from program RealTime along with predicted and observed environmental conditions are used to make in-season predictions of arrival and survival to various dams in the Columbia and Snake Rivers. For 2008, calibrations of travel and survival parameters for two stocks of fish-Snake River yearling PIT-tagged wild chinook salmon (chin1pit) and Snake River PIT-tagged steelhead (lgrStlhd)-were used to model travel and survival of steelhead and chinook stocks from Lowermore » Granite Dam (LWG) or McNary Dam (MCN) to Bonneville Dam (BON). This report summarizes the success of the COMPASS/RealTime process to model these migrations as they occur. We compared model results on timing and survival to data from two sources: stock specific counts at dams and end-of-season control survival estimates (Jim Faulkner, NOAA, pers. comm. Dec. 16, 2008). The difference between the predicted and observed day of median passage and the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) between predicted and observed arrival cumulative distributions are measures of timing accuracy. MAD is essentially the average percentage error over the season. The difference between the predicted and observed survivals is a measure of survival accuracy. Model results and timing data were in good agreement from LWG to John Day Dam (JDA). Predictions of median passage days for the chin1pit and lgrStlhd stocks were 0 and 2 days (respectively) later than observed. MAD for chin1pit and lgrStlhd stocks at JDA were 2.3% and 5.9% (respectively). Between JDA and BON modeling and timing data were not as well matched. At BON, median passage predictions were 6 and 10 days later than observed and MAD values were 7.8% and 16.0% respectively. Model results and survival data were in good agreement from LWG to MCN. COMPASS predicted survivals of 0.77 and 0.69 for chin1pit and lgrStlhd, while the data control's survivals were 0.79 and 0.68. The differences are 0.02 and 0.01 (respectively), nearly identical. However, from MCN to BON, COMPASS predicted survivals of 0.74 and 0.69 while the data controls survivals were 0.47 and 0.53 respectively. Differences of 0.27 and 0.16. In summary: Travel and survival of chin1pit and lgrStlhd stocks were well modeled in the upper reaches. Fish in the lower reaches down through BON suffered unmodeled mortality, and/or passed BON undetected. A drop in bypass fraction and unmodeled mortality during the run could produce such patterns by shifting the observed median passage day to appear artificially early.« less

Outcomes of allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation for adolescent and young adults compared with children and older adults with acute myeloid leukemia.

PubMed

Majhail, Navneet S; Brazauskas, Ruta; Hassebroek, Anna; Bredeson, Christopher N; Hahn, Theresa; Hale, Gregory A; Horowitz, Mary M; Lazarus, Hillard M; Maziarz, Richard T; Wood, William A; Parsons, Susan K; Joffe, Steven; Rizzo, J Douglas; Lee, Stephanie J; Hayes-Lattin, Brandon M

2012-06-01

Adolescents and young adults (AYAs) with cancer have not experienced improvements in survival to the same extent as children and older adults. We compared outcomes among children (<15 years), AYAs (15-40 years) and older adults (>40 years) receiving allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplant (HCT) for acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Our cohort consisted of 900 children, 2,708 AYA, and 2,728 older adult recipients of HLA-identical sibling or unrelated donor (URD) transplantation using myeloablative or reduced-intensity/nonmyeloablative conditioning. Outcomes were assessed over three time periods (1980-1988, 1989-1997, 1998-2005) for siblings and two time periods (1989-1997, 1998-2005) for URD HCT. Analyses were stratified by donor type. Results showed overall survival for AYAs using either siblings or URD improved over time. Although children had better and older adults had worse survival compared with AYAs, improvements in survival for AYAs did not lag behind those for children and older adults. After sibling donor HCT, 5-year adjusted survival for the three time periods was 40%, 48%, and 53% for children, 35%, 41%, and 42% for AYAs, and 22%, 30%, and 34% for older adults. Among URD HCT recipients, 5-year adjusted survival for the two time periods was 38% and 37% for children, 24% and 28% for AYAs, and 19% and 23% for older adults. Improvements in survival occurred because of a reduction in risk of treatment-related mortality. The risk of relapse did not change over time. Improvements in survival among AYAs undergoing allogeneic HCT for AML have paralleled those among children and older adults. Copyright © 2012 American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for terminally ill cancer patients.

PubMed

Feliu, Jaime; Jiménez-Gordo, Ana María; Madero, Rosario; Rodríguez-Aizcorbe, José Ramón; Espinosa, Enrique; Castro, Javier; Acedo, Jesús Domingo; Martínez, Beatriz; Alonso-Babarro, Alberto; Molina, Raquel; Cámara, Juan Carlos; García-Paredes, María Luisa; González-Barón, Manuel

2011-11-02

Determining life expectancy in terminally ill cancer patients is a difficult task. We aimed to develop and validate a nomogram to predict the length of survival in patients with terminal disease. From February 1, 2003, to December 31, 2005, 406 consecutive terminally ill patients were entered into the study. We analyzed 38 features prognostic of life expectancy among terminally ill patients by multivariable Cox regression and identified the most accurate and parsimonious model by backward variable elimination according to the Akaike information criterion. Five clinical and laboratory variables were built into a nomogram to estimate the probability of patient survival at 15, 30, and 60 days. We validated and calibrated the nomogram with an external validation cohort of 474 patients who were treated from June 1, 2006, through December 31, 2007. The median overall survival was 29.1 days for the training set and 18.3 days for the validation set. Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, lactate dehydrogenase levels, lymphocyte levels, albumin levels, and time from initial diagnosis to diagnosis of terminal disease were retained in the multivariable Cox proportional hazards model as independent prognostic factors of survival and formed the basis of the nomogram. The nomogram had high predictive performance, with a bootstrapped corrected concordance index of 0.70, and it showed good calibration. External independent validation revealed 68% predictive accuracy. We developed a highly accurate tool that uses basic clinical and analytical information to predict the probability of survival at 15, 30, and 60 days in terminally ill cancer patients. This tool can help physicians making decisions on clinical care at the end of life.

Radiotherapy of metastatic spinal cord compression in very elderly patients

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rades, Dirk; Hoskin, Peter J.; Karstens, Johann H.

2007-01-01

Purpose: Owing to the aging of the population, the proportion of elderly patients receiving cancer treatment has increased. This study investigated the results of radiotherapy (RT) for metastatic spinal cord compression (MSCC) in the very elderly, because few data are available for these patients. Methods and Materials: The data from 308 patients aged {>=}75 years who received short-course (treatment time 1-5 days) or long-course RT (2-4 weeks) for MSCC were retrospectively analyzed for functional outcome, local control, and survival. Furthermore, nine potential prognostic factors were investigated: gender, performance status, interval from tumor diagnosis to MSCC, tumor type, number of involvedmore » vertebrae, other bone or visceral metastases, ambulatory status, and speed at which motor deficits developed. Results: Improvement of motor deficits occurred in 25% of patients, with no further progression of MSCC in an additional 59%. The 1-year local control and survival rate was 92% and 43%, respectively. Improved functional outcomes were associated with ambulatory status and slower developing motor deficits. Improved local control resulted from long-course RT. Improved survival was associated with a longer interval from tumor diagnosis to MSCC, tumor type (breast/prostate cancer, myeloma/lymphoma), lack of visceral or other bone metastases, ambulatory status, and a slower development of motor deficits. Conclusion: Short- and long-course RT are similarly effective in patients aged {>=}75 years regarding functional outcome and survival. Long-course RT provided better local control. Patients with better expected survival should receive long-course RT and others short-course RT. The criteria for selection of an appropriate regimen for MSCC in very elderly patients should be the same as for younger individuals.« less

Eggshell structure in Caiman latirostris eggs improves embryo survival during nest inundation.

PubMed

Cedillo-Leal, César; Simoncini, Melina S; Leiva, Pamela M L; Larriera, Alejandro; Lang, Jeffrey W; Piña, Carlos I

2017-05-17

Egg inundation often results in poor hatching success in crocodylians. However, how tolerant eggs are to submergence, and/or how eggshell ultrastructure may affect embryo survival when inundated, are not well understood. In this study, our objective was to determine if embryo survival in Caiman latirostris is affected by eggshell surface roughness, when eggs are submerged under water. Tolerance to inundation was tested early (day 30) versus late (day 60) in development, using eight clutches (four per time treatments), subdivided into four groups: ( N = 9 per clutch per treatment; 9 × 4 = 36 eggs per group). 'Rough' eggshell represented the natural, unmodified eggshell surface structure. 'Smooth' eggshell surface structure was created by mechanically sanding the natural rough surface to remove surface columnar elements and secondary layer features, e.g. irregularities that result in 'roughness'. When inundated by submerging eggs under water for 10 h at day 30, 'smooth' eggshell structure resulted in more than twice as many dead embryos (16 versus 6, smooth versus rough; N = 36), and fewer than half as many healthy embryos (6 versus 13, smooth versus rough, respectively; N = 36). By contrast, at day 60, inundation resulted in very low hatching success, regardless of eggshell surface structure. Only two hatchlings survived the inundation, notably in the untreated group with intact, rough eggshells. Inundation produced a high rate of malformations (58% at day 30), but did not affect hatchling size. Our results indicate that eggshell roughness enhances embryo survival when eggs are inundated early in development, but not late in development. Apparently, the natural surface 'roughness' entraps air bubbles at the eggshell surface during inundation, thereby facilitating gas exchange through the eggshell even when the egg is submerged under water. © 2017 The Author(s).

Survival of Persons with Alzheimer's Disease: Caregiver Coping Matters

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McClendon, McKee J.; Smyth, Kathleen A.; Neundorfer, Marcia M.

2004-01-01

Purpose: Although persons with Alzheimer's disease (AD) require increasingly more assistance with activities of daily living as their disease progresses, the caregiving environment has received little attention as a source of predictors of their survival time. We report here on a study to determine whether variation in survival time of persons…

Survival rate and prognostic factors of conventional osteosarcoma in Northern Thailand: A series from Chiang Mai University Hospital.

PubMed

Pruksakorn, Dumnoensun; Phanphaisarn, Areerak; Arpornchayanon, Olarn; Uttamo, Nantawat; Leerapun, Taninnit; Settakorn, Jongkolnee

2015-12-01

Osteosarcoma is a common and aggressive primary malignant bone tumor occurring in children and adolescents. It is one of the most aggressive human cancers and the most common cause of cancer-associated limb loss. As treatment in Thailand has produced a lower survival rate than in developed countries; therefore, this study identified survival rate and the poor prognostic factors of osteosarcoma in Northern Thailand. The retrospective cases of osteosarcoma, diagnosis between 1 January 1996 and 31 December 2013, were evaluated. Five and ten year overall survival rates were analyzed using time-to-event analysis. Potential prognostic factors were identified by multivariate regression analysis. There were 208 newly diagnosed osteosarcomas during that period, and 144 cases met the criteria for analysis. The majority of the osteosarcoma cases (78.5%) were aged 0-24 years. The overall 5- and 10-year survival rates were 37.9% and 33.6%, respectively. Presence of metastasis at initial examination, delayed and against treatment co-operation, and axial skeletal location were identified as independent prognostic factors for survival, with hazard ratios of 4.3, 2.5 and 3.8, and 3.1, respectively. This osteosarcoma cohort had a relatively poor overall survival rate. The prognostic factors identified would play a critical role in modifying survival rates of osteosarcoma patients; as rapid disease recognition, a better treatment counselling, as well as improving of chemotherapeutic regimens were found to be important in improving the overall survival rate in Thailand. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Osseous metastatic pattern in breast-cancer - relation between anatomical distribution and ulterior visceral involvement.

PubMed

Vallejo, C; Perez, J; Rodriguez, R; Cuevas, M; Machiavelli, M; Lacava, J; Romero, A; Rabinovich, M; Leone, B

1994-03-01

The development of ultimate visceral metastases and the visceral metastases-free time interval was evaluated in patients with breast carcinoma bearing bone-only metastases. Ninety patients were identified and were subdivided into three groups according to the anatomic distribution of osseous lesions: group A with osseous involvement cranial to the lumbosacral junction, group B caudal to this, and group C with lesions in both areas. The purpose of this subdivision was to evaluate if there is any correlation between bone-metastases distribution and probability of developing visceral lesions. All patients received systemic therapy consisting of hormonal therapy, chemotherapy or both. The median survival for the whole group was 28 months, whereas it was 33, 43 and 26 months for patients in groups A, B and C, respectively (p=NS). No differences in subsequent visceral involvement and visceral-free time interval were observed among the three groups of patients regardless of tumor burden. In conclusion, our analyses did not show significant differences in the incidence of visceral metastases, visceral metastases-free time interval and overall survival in patients with breast cancer with bone-only lesions independently of anatomic distribution.

Artificial light at night prolongs juvenile development time in the black field cricket, Teleogryllus commodus.

PubMed

Durrant, Joanna; Botha, L Michael; Green, Mark P; Jones, Therésa M

2018-06-01

A growing body of evidence exists to support a detrimental effect of the presence of artificial light at night (ALAN) on life-history and fitness traits. However, few studies simultaneously investigate multiple traits and the life stages at which changes manifest. We experimentally manipulated ALAN intensities, within those found in the natural environment, to explore the consequences for growth, survival, and reproductive success of the field cricket, Teleogryllus commodus. We reared crickets from egg to adult under a daily light-cycle consisting of 12 hr bright daylight (2,600 lx) followed by either 12 hr darkness (0 lx) or dim-light environments (1, 10, or 100 lx). We found egg hatch, adult survival, and reproductive measures were largely comparable for all treatments. However, juvenile development time (number of days from egg to adult) was on average 10 days (14%) longer and adults were also larger when crickets were exposed to any light at night (1, 10, or 100 lx). Our data demonstrate that chronic lifetime exposure to ALAN can modulate the timing of life-history events and may disrupt phenology to a similar extent as other abiotic factors. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Surviving Troubled Times: Five Best Practices for Training Solutions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Villachica, Steven W.; Stepich, Donald A.; Rist, Shannon

2011-01-01

The business of training and performance improvement has always been cyclical, with the fortunes of human resource development (HRD) and performance improvement professionals rising and falling with the economic fortunes of the workplace. The current economic downturn and nascent recovery represent an opportunity for HRD and performance…

A Time Bomb for Leukemia.

PubMed

Maryanovich, Maria; Frenette, Paul S

2016-04-07

Alterations of the circadian clock have been linked to cancer development. Puram et al. (in this issue) now uncover differential requirements between healthy hematopoietic and diseased leukemic stem cells for core circadian transcription factors, wherein leukemic cells depend on the clock machinery for survival and growth. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Lactation biology symposium: Circadian clocks and photoperiod in mammary gland development and lactation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Life on earth evolved with light-dark cycles. As a result there arose in all organisms, though probably first in photosynthetic archaebacteria, oscillatory mechanisms to time processes that were necessary for survival and reproduction. The first known account of these oscillations was given for plan...

A SHORT-TERM REPRODUCTIVE TEST WITH THE FATHEAD MINNOW (PIMEPHALES PROMELAS)

EPA Science Inventory

Due to the time and expense associated with full life-cycle testing, most current toxicity tests with fish do not explicity consider reproductive output as an endpoint but, rather, focus on early life-stage survival and development. However, there are classes of chemicals that co...

A SHORT-TERM REPRODUCTION TEST WITH THE FATHEAD MINNOW (PIMEPHALES PROMELAS): L METHODS DESCRIPTION

EPA Science Inventory

Due to the time and expense associated with full life-cycle testing, most current toxicity tests with fish do not explicity consider reproductive output as an endpoint but, rather, focus on early life-stage survival and development. However, there are classes of chemicals that co...

A model of survival following pre-hospital cardiac arrest based on the Victorian Ambulance Cardiac Arrest Register.

PubMed

Fridman, Masha; Barnes, Vanessa; Whyman, Andrew; Currell, Alex; Bernard, Stephen; Walker, Tony; Smith, Karen L

2007-11-01

This study describes the epidemiology of sudden cardiac arrest patients in Victoria, Australia, as captured via the Victorian Ambulance Cardiac Arrest Register (VACAR). We used the VACAR data to construct a new model of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA), which was specified in accordance with observed trends. All cases of cardiac arrest in Victoria that were attended by Victorian ambulance services during the period of 2002-2005. Overall survival to hospital discharge was 3.8% among 18,827 cases of OHCA. Survival was 15.7% among 1726 bystander witnessed, adult cardiac arrests of presumed cardiac aetiology, presenting in ventricular fibrillation or ventricular tachycardia (VF/VT), where resuscitation was attempted. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, bystander CPR, cardiac arrest (CA) location, response time, age and sex were predictors of VF/VT, which, in turn, was a strong predictor of survival. The same factors that affected VF/VT made an additional contribution to survival. However, for bystander CPR, CA location and response time this additional contribution was limited to VF/VT patients only. There was no detectable association between survival and age younger than 60 years or response time over 15min. The new model accounts for relationships among predictors of survival. These relationships indicate that interventions such as reduced response times and bystander CPR act in multiple ways to improve survival.

Intraspecific competition: the role of lags between attack and death in host-parasitoid interactions.

PubMed

Cameron, T C; Metcalfe, D; Beckerman, A P; Sait, S M

2007-05-01

Many natural enemies do not immediately kill their host, and the lag this creates between attack and host death results in mixed populations of uninfected and infected hosts. Both competition and parasitism are known to be major structuring forces in ecological communities; however, surprisingly little is known about how the competitive nature of infected hosts could affect the survival and dynamics of remaining uninfected host populations. Using a laboratory system comprising the Indian meal moth, Plodia interpunctella, and a solitary koinobiont parasitoid, Venturia canescens, we address this question by conducting replicated competition experiments between the unparasitized and parasitized classes of host larvae. For varying proportions of parasitized host larvae and competitor densities, we consider the effects of competition within (intraclass) and between (interclass) unparasitized and parasitized larvae on the survival, development time, and size of adult moths and parasitoid wasps. The greatest effects were on survival: increased competitor densities reduced survival of both parasitized and unparasitized larvae. However, unparasitized larvae survival, but not parasitized larvae survival, was reduced by increasing interclass competition. To our knowledge, this is the first experimental demonstration of the competitive superiority of parasitized over unparasitized hosts for limiting resources. We discuss possible mechanisms for this phenomenon, why it may have evolved, and its possible influence on the stability of host-parasite dynamics.

Proposed Staging System for Patients With HPV-Related Oropharyngeal Cancer Based on Nasopharyngeal Cancer N Categories

PubMed Central

Dahlstrom, Kristina R.; Garden, Adam S.; William, William N.; Lim, Ming Yann

2016-01-01

Purpose Patients with human papillomavirus (HPV)–related oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) generally present with more advanced disease but have better survival than patients with HPV-unrelated OPC. The current American Joint Commission on Cancer (AJCC)/Union for International Cancer Control (UICC) TNM staging system for OPC was developed for HPV-unrelated OPC. A new staging system is needed to adequately predict outcomes of patients with HPV-related OPC. Patients and Methods Patients with newly diagnosed HPV-positive OPC (by p16 immunohistochemistry or in situ hybridization) treated at our institution from January 2003 through December 2012 were included. By using recursive partitioning analysis (RPA), we developed new stage groupings with both traditional OPC regional lymph node (N) categories and nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) N categories. Survival was estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method, and the relationship between stage and survival was examined by using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. Results A total of 661 patients with HPV-positive OPC met the inclusion criteria. With the traditional TNM staging system, there was no difference in survival between stages (P = .141). RPA with NPC N categories resulted in more balanced stage groups and better separation between groups for 5-year survival than RPA with traditional OPC N categories. With the stage groupings that were based in part on NPC N categories, the risk of death increased with increasing stage (P for trend < .001), and patients with stage III disease had five times the risk of death versus patients with stage IA disease. Conclusion New stage groupings that are based on primary tumor (T) categories and NPC N categories better separate patients with HPV-positive OPC with respect to survival than does the current AJCC/UICC TNM staging system. Although confirmation of our findings in other patient populations is needed, we propose consideration of NPC N categories as an alternative to the traditional OPC N categories in the new AJCC/UICC TNM staging system that is currently being developed. PMID:26884553

Cell survival fraction estimation based on the probability densities of domain and cell nucleus specific energies using improved microdosimetric kinetic models.

PubMed

Sato, Tatsuhiko; Furusawa, Yoshiya

2012-10-01

Estimation of the survival fractions of cells irradiated with various particles over a wide linear energy transfer (LET) range is of great importance in the treatment planning of charged-particle therapy. Two computational models were developed for estimating survival fractions based on the concept of the microdosimetric kinetic model. They were designated as the double-stochastic microdosimetric kinetic and stochastic microdosimetric kinetic models. The former model takes into account the stochastic natures of both domain and cell nucleus specific energies, whereas the latter model represents the stochastic nature of domain specific energy by its approximated mean value and variance to reduce the computational time. The probability densities of the domain and cell nucleus specific energies are the fundamental quantities for expressing survival fractions in these models. These densities are calculated using the microdosimetric and LET-estimator functions implemented in the Particle and Heavy Ion Transport code System (PHITS) in combination with the convolution or database method. Both the double-stochastic microdosimetric kinetic and stochastic microdosimetric kinetic models can reproduce the measured survival fractions for high-LET and high-dose irradiations, whereas a previously proposed microdosimetric kinetic model predicts lower values for these fractions, mainly due to intrinsic ignorance of the stochastic nature of cell nucleus specific energies in the calculation. The models we developed should contribute to a better understanding of the mechanism of cell inactivation, as well as improve the accuracy of treatment planning of charged-particle therapy.

Transcriptome Profiling of Selectively Bred Pacific Oyster Crassostrea gigas Families that Differ in Tolerance of Heat Shock

PubMed Central

Bayne, Christopher J.; Camara, Mark D.; Cunningham, Charles; Jenny, Matthew J.; Langdon, Christopher J.

2010-01-01

Sessile inhabitants of marine intertidal environments commonly face heat stress, an important component of summer mortality syndrome in the Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas. Marker-aided selection programs would be useful for developing oyster strains that resist summer mortality; however, there is currently a need to identify candidate genes associated with stress tolerance and to develop molecular markers associated with those genes. To identify candidate genes for further study, we used cDNA microarrays to test the hypothesis that oyster families that had high (>64%) or low (<29%) survival of heat shock (43°C, 1 h) differ in their transcriptional responses to stress. Based upon data generated by the microarray and by real-time quantitative PCR, we found that transcription after heat shock increased for genes putatively encoding heat shock proteins and genes for proteins that synthesize lipids, protect against bacterial infection, and regulate spawning, whereas transcription decreased for genes for proteins that mobilize lipids and detoxify reactive oxygen species. RNAs putatively identified as heat shock protein 27, collagen, peroxinectin, S-crystallin, and two genes with no match in Genbank had higher transcript concentrations in low-surviving families than in high-surviving families, whereas concentration of putative cystatin B mRNA was greater in high-surviving families. These ESTs should be studied further for use in marker-aided selection programs. Low survival of heat shock could result from a complex interaction of cell damage, opportunistic infection, and metabolic exhaustion. PMID:19205802

Outcomes and toxicities of stereotactic body radiation therapy for non-spine bone oligometastases

PubMed Central

Owen, Dawn; Laack, Nadia N.; Mayo, Charles S.; Garces, Yolanda I.; Park, Sean S.; Bauer, Heather J.; Nelson, Kathryn; Miller, Robert W.; Brown, Paul D.; Olivier, Kenneth R.

2015-01-01

Purpose Stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) is being applied more widely for oligometastatic disease. This technique is now being used for non-spine bony metastases in addition to liver, spine, and lung. However, there are few studies examining the toxicity and outcomes of SBRT for non-spine bone metastases. Methods and Materials Between 2008 and 2012, 74 subjects with oligometastatic non-spine bony metastases of varying histologies were treated at the Mayo Clinic with SBRT. A total of 85 non-spine bony sites were treated. Median local control, overall survival, and progression-free survival were described. Acute toxicity (defined as toxicity <90 days) and late toxicity (defined as toxicity ≥90 days) were reported and graded as per standardized Common Toxicity Criteria for Adverse Events 4.0 criteria. Results The median age of patients treated was 60 years. The most common histology was prostate cancer (31%) and most patients had fewer than 3 sites of disease at the time of simulation (64%). Most of the non-spine bony sites lay within the pelvis (65%). Dose and fractionation varied but the most common prescription was 24 Gy/1 fraction. Local recurrence occurred in 7 patients with a median time to failure of 2.8 months. Local control was 91.8% at 1 year. With a median follow-up of 7.6 months, median SBRT specific overall survival and progression-free survival were 9.3 months and 9.7 months, respectively. Eighteen patients developed acute toxicity (mostly grade 1 and 2 fatigue and acute pain flare); 9 patients developed grade 1–2 late toxicities. Two patients developed pathologic fractures but both were asymptomatic. There were no late grade 3 or 4 toxicities. Conclusions Stereotactic body radiation therapy is a feasible and tolerable treatment for non-spine bony metastases. Longer follow-up will be needed to accurately determine late effects. PMID:24890360

Outcomes and toxicities of stereotactic body radiation therapy for non-spine bone oligometastases.

PubMed

Owen, Dawn; Laack, Nadia N; Mayo, Charles S; Garces, Yolanda I; Park, Sean S; Bauer, Heather J; Nelson, Kathryn; Miller, Robert W; Brown, Paul D; Olivier, Kenneth R

2014-01-01

Stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) is being applied more widely for oligometastatic disease. This technique is now being used for non-spine bony metastases in addition to liver, spine, and lung. However, there are few studies examining the toxicity and outcomes of SBRT for non-spine bone metastases. Between 2008 and 2012, 74 subjects with oligometastatic non-spine bony metastases of varying histologies were treated at the Mayo Clinic with SBRT. A total of 85 non-spine bony sites were treated. Median local control, overall survival, and progression-free survival were described. Acute toxicity (defined as toxicity <90 days) and late toxicity (defined as toxicity ≥90 days) were reported and graded as per standardized Common Toxicity Criteria for Adverse Events 4.0 criteria. The median age of patients treated was 60 years. The most common histology was prostate cancer (31%) and most patients had fewer than 3 sites of disease at the time of simulation (64%). Most of the non-spine bony sites lay within the pelvis (65%). Dose and fractionation varied but the most common prescription was 24 Gy/1 fraction. Local recurrence occurred in 7 patients with a median time to failure of 2.8 months. Local control was 91.8% at 1 year. With a median follow-up of 7.6 months, median SBRT specific overall survival and progression-free survival were 9.3 months and 9.7 months, respectively. Eighteen patients developed acute toxicity (mostly grade 1 and 2 fatigue and acute pain flare); 9 patients developed grade 1-2 late toxicities. Two patients developed pathologic fractures but both were asymptomatic. There were no late grade 3 or 4 toxicities. Stereotactic body radiation therapy is a feasible and tolerable treatment for non-spine bony metastases. Longer follow-up will be needed to accurately determine late effects. Copyright © 2014 American Society for Radiation Oncology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The shifting landscape of metastatic breast cancer to the CNS.

PubMed

Quigley, Matthew R; Fukui, Olivia; Chew, Brandon; Bhatia, Sanjay; Karlovits, Steven

2013-07-01

The improved survival following the diagnosis of breast cancer has potentially altered the characteristics and course of patients presenting with CNS involvement. We therefore sought to define our current cohort of breast cancer patients with metastatic disease to the CNS in regard to modern biomarkers and clinical outcome. Review of clinical and radiographic records of women presenting to a tertiary medical center with the new diagnosis of CNS metastatic disease from breast cancer. This was a retrospective review from patients identities obtained from two prospective databases. There were 88 women analyzed who were treated over the period of January 2003 to February 2010, average age 56.9 years. At the time of initial presentation of CNS disease, 68 % of patients had multiple brain metastases, 17 % had a solitary metastasis, and 15 % had only leptomeningeal disease (LMD). The median survival for all patients from the time of diagnosis of breast disease was 50.0 months, and 9.7 months from diagnosis of CNS involvement. The only factor related to overall survival was estrogen receptor-positive pathology (57.6 v. 38.2 months, p = .02 log-rank); those related to survival post CNS diagnosis were presentation with LMD (p = .004, HR = 3.1, Cox regression) and triple-negative hormonal/HER2 status (p = .02, HR = 2.3, Cox regression). Patients with either had a median survival of 3.1 months (no patients in common). Of the 75 patients who initially presented with metastatic brain lesions, 20 (26 %) subsequently developed LMD in the course of their disease (median 10.4 months), following which survival was grim (1.8 months median). Symptoms of LMD were most commonly lower extremity weakness (14/33), followed by cranial nerve deficits (11/33). The recently described Graded Prognostic Assessment (GPA) tumor index stratified median survival at 2.5, 5.9, 13.1, and 21.7 months, respectively, for indices of 1-4 (p = .004, log-rank), which contrasted with the nonsignificant survival difference between Radiation Therapy Oncology Group Recursive Partitioning Analysis classes one and two. (13.1 v. 13.2, p = .8, log-rank). Treatment of patients with metastatic brain disease from breast cancer should be tailored to the patient's hormonal status and GPA index. Practitioners must be vigilant for the development of LMD, especially as it often presents with nondescript complaints such as back pain.

Joint modeling of longitudinal data and discrete-time survival outcome.

PubMed

Qiu, Feiyou; Stein, Catherine M; Elston, Robert C

2016-08-01

A predictive joint shared parameter model is proposed for discrete time-to-event and longitudinal data. A discrete survival model with frailty and a generalized linear mixed model for the longitudinal data are joined to predict the probability of events. This joint model focuses on predicting discrete time-to-event outcome, taking advantage of repeated measurements. We show that the probability of an event in a time window can be more precisely predicted by incorporating the longitudinal measurements. The model was investigated by comparison with a two-step model and a discrete-time survival model. Results from both a study on the occurrence of tuberculosis and simulated data show that the joint model is superior to the other models in discrimination ability, especially as the latent variables related to both survival times and the longitudinal measurements depart from 0. © The Author(s) 2013.

Surveillance of colorectal cancer: effectiveness of early detection of intraluminal recurrences on prognosis and survival of patients treated for cure.

PubMed

Barillari, P; Ramacciato, G; Manetti, G; Bovino, A; Sammartino, P; Stipa, V

1996-04-01

The authors evaluate the effectiveness of routine colonoscopy and marker evaluation in diagnosis of intraluminal recurrent cancer. Chart review was conducted on 481 patients who underwent curative resection for colorectal cancer between 1980 and 1990. Clinical visits were scheduled and carcinoembryonic antigen evaluation was performed every three months, and colonoscopy was performed preoperatively, 12 to 15 months after surgical treatment, and then with intervals of 12 to 24 months or when symptoms appeared. About 10 percent of patients developed intraluminal recurrences. More than one-half of metachronous lesions arose within the first 24 months, and median time to diagnosis was 25 months. Patients with left-sited tumors in the advanced stage had a higher risk of developing recurrent intraluminal disease. Twenty-nine patients underwent a second surgical operation, of which 17 cases were radical. In this group, the five-year survival was 70.6 percent, although no nonradically treated or nonresected patients survived longer than 31 months. Twenty-two patients were asymptomatic at time of diagnosis of recurrence, and of these, 12 patients underwent radical operation; on the other hand, of the 24 symptomatic patients, only 5 were treated radically. Carcinoembryonic antigen was the first sign of recurrence in eight cases. Colonoscopy must be performed within the first 12 to 15 months after operation, whereas an interval of 24 months between examinations seems sufficient to guarantee early detection of metachronous lesions. Serial tumor marker evaluation is of help in earlier diagnosis of local recurrences. Asymptomatic patients more frequently undergo another operation for cure and thus have a better survival rate.

Dim light at night interferes with the development of the short-day phenotype and impairs cell-mediated immunity in Siberian hamsters (Phodopus sungorus).

PubMed

Aubrecht, Taryn G; Weil, Zachary M; Nelson, Randy J

2014-10-01

Winter is a challenging time to survive and breed outside of the tropics. Animals use day length (photoperiod) to regulate seasonally appropriate adaptations in anticipation of challenging winter conditions. The net result of these photoperiod-mediated adjustments is enhanced immune function and increased survival. Thus, the ability to discriminate day length information is critical for survival and reproduction in small animals. However, during the past century, urban and suburban development has rapidly expanded and filled the night sky with light from various sources, obscuring crucial light-dark signals, which alters physiological interpretation of day lengths. Furthermore, reduced space, increased proximity to people, and the presence of light at night may act as stressors for small animals. Whereas acute stressors typically enhance immune responses, chronic exposure to stressors often impairs immune responses. Therefore, we hypothesized that the combination of dim light at night and chronic stress interferes with enhanced cell-mediated immunity observed during short days. Siberian hamsters (Phodopus sungorus) were assigned to short or long days with dark nights (0 lux) or dim (5 lux) light at night for 10 weeks. Following 2 weeks of chronic restraint (6 hr/day), a model of chronic stress, delayed type hypersensitivity (DTH) responses were assessed. Both dim light at night and restraint reduced the DTH response. Dim light at night during long nights produced an intermediate short day phenotype. These results suggest the constant presence of light at night could negatively affect survival of photoperiodic rodents by disrupting the timing of breeding and immune responses. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

AMP kinase-related kinase NUAK2 affects tumor growth, migration, and clinical outcome of human melanoma.

PubMed

Namiki, Takeshi; Tanemura, Atsushi; Valencia, Julio C; Coelho, Sergio G; Passeron, Thierry; Kawaguchi, Masakazu; Vieira, Wilfred D; Ishikawa, Masashi; Nishijima, Wataru; Izumo, Toshiyuki; Kaneko, Yasuhiko; Katayama, Ichiro; Yamaguchi, Yuji; Yin, Lanlan; Polley, Eric C; Liu, Hongfang; Kawakami, Yutaka; Eishi, Yoshinobu; Takahashi, Eishi; Yokozeki, Hiroo; Hearing, Vincent J

2011-04-19

The identification of genes that participate in melanomagenesis should suggest strategies for developing therapeutic modalities. We used a public array comparative genomic hybridization (CGH) database and real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR) analyses to identify the AMP kinase (AMPK)-related kinase NUAK2 as a candidate gene for melanomagenesis, and we analyzed its functions in melanoma cells. Our analyses had identified a locus at 1q32 where genomic gain is strongly associated with tumor thickness, and we used real-time qPCR analyses and regression analyses to identify NUAK2 as a candidate gene at that locus. Associations of relapse-free survival and overall survival of 92 primary melanoma patients with NUAK2 expression measured using immunohistochemistry were investigated using Kaplan-Meier curves, log rank tests, and Cox regression models. Knockdown of NUAK2 induces senescence and reduces S-phase, decreases migration, and down-regulates expression of mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR). In vivo analysis demonstrated that knockdown of NUAK2 suppresses melanoma tumor growth in mice. Survival analysis showed that the risk of relapse is greater in acral melanoma patients with high levels of NUAK2 expression than in acral melanoma patients with low levels of NUAK2 expression (hazard ratio = 3.88; 95% confidence interval = 1.44-10.50; P = 0.0075). These data demonstrate that NUAK2 expression is significantly associated with the oncogenic features of melanoma cells and with the survival of acral melanoma patients. NUAK2 may provide a drug target to suppress melanoma progression. This study further supports the importance of NUAK2 in cancer development and tumor progression, while AMPK has antioncogenic properties.

Cervical cancer survival in the United States by race and stage (2001-2009): Findings from the CONCORD-2 study.

PubMed

Benard, Vicki B; Watson, Meg; Saraiya, Mona; Harewood, Rhea; Townsend, Julie S; Stroup, Antoinette M; Weir, Hannah K; Allemani, Claudia

2017-12-15

Overall, cervical cancer survival in the United States has been reported to be among the highest in the world, despite slight decreases over the last decade. Objective of the current study was to describe cervical cancer survival trends among US women and examine differences by race and stage. This study used data from the CONCORD-2 study to compare survival among women (aged 15-99 years) diagnosed in 37 states covering 80% of the US population. Survival was adjusted for background mortality (net survival) with state- and race-specific life tables and was age-standardized with the International Cancer Survival Standard weights. Five-year survival was compared by race (all races, blacks, and whites). Two time periods, 2001-2003 and 2004-2009, were considered because of changes in how the staging variable was collected. From 2001 to 2009, 90,620 women were diagnosed with invasive cervical cancer. The proportion of cancers diagnosed at a regional or distant stage increased over time in most states. Overall, the 5-year survival was 63.5% in 2001-2003 and 62.8% in 2004-2009. The survival was lower for black women versus white women in both calendar periods and in most states; black women had a higher proportion of distant-stage cancers. The stability of the overall survival over time and the persistent differences in survival between white and black women in all US states suggest that there is a need for targeted interventions and improved access to screening, timely treatment, and follow-up care, especially among black women. Cancer 2017;123:5119-37. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Spatial aspects of tree mortality strongly differ between young and old-growth forests.

PubMed

Larson, Andrew J; Lutz, James A; Donato, Daniel C; Freund, James A; Swanson, Mark E; HilleRisLambers, Janneke; Sprugel, Douglas G; Franklin, Jerry F

2015-11-01

Rates and spatial patterns of tree mortality are predicted to change during forest structural development. In young forests, mortality should be primarily density dependent due to competition for light, leading to an increasingly spatially uniform pattern of surviving trees. In contrast, mortality in old-growth forests should be primarily caused by contagious and spatially autocorrelated agents (e.g., insects, wind), causing spatial aggregation of surviving trees to increase through time. We tested these predictions by contrasting a three-decade record of tree mortality from replicated mapped permanent plots located in young (< 60-year-old) and old-growth (> 300-year-old) Abies amabilis forests. Trees in young forests died at a rate of 4.42% per year, whereas trees in old-growth forests died at 0.60% per year. Tree mortality in young forests was significantly aggregated, strongly density dependent, and caused live tree patterns to become more uniform through time. Mortality in old-growth forests was spatially aggregated, but was density independent and did not change the spatial pattern of surviving trees. These results extend current theory by demonstrating that density-dependent competitive mortality leading to increasingly uniform tree spacing in young forests ultimately transitions late in succession to a more diverse tree mortality regime that maintains spatial heterogeneity through time.

Evaluation of clinical and histopathologic prognostic factors for survival in canine osteosarcoma of the extracranial flat and irregular bones.

PubMed

Kruse, M A; Holmes, E S; Balko, J A; Fernandez, S; Brown, D C; Goldschmidt, M H

2013-07-01

Osteosarcoma is the most common bone tumor in dogs. However, current literature focuses primarily on appendicular osteosarcoma. This study examined the prognostic value of histological and clinical factors in flat and irregular bone osteosarcomas and hypothesized that clinical factors would have a significant association with survival time while histological factors would not. All osteosarcoma biopsy samples of the vertebra, rib, sternum, scapula, or pelvis were reviewed while survival information and clinical data were obtained from medical records, veterinarians, and owners. Forty-six dogs were included in the analysis of histopathological variables and 27 dogs with complete clinical data were included in the analysis of clinical variables. In the histopathologic cox regression model, there was no significant association between any histologic feature of osteosarcoma, including grade, and survival time. In the clinical cox regression model, there was a significant association between the location of the tumor and survival time as well as between the percent elevation of alkaline phosphatase (ALP) above normal and survival time. Controlling for ALP elevation, dogs with osteosarcoma located in the scapula had a significantly greater hazard for death (2.8) compared to dogs with tumors in other locations. Controlling for tumor location, every 100% increase in ALP from normal increased the hazard for death by 1.7. For canine osteosarcomas of the flat and irregular bones, histopathological features, including grade do not appear to be rigorous predictors of survival. Clinical variables such as increased ALP levels and tumor location in the scapula were associated with decreased survival times.

Hypertension and overall survival in metastatic colorectal cancer patients treated with bevacizumab-containing chemotherapy.

PubMed

Österlund, P; Soveri, L-M; Isoniemi, H; Poussa, T; Alanko, T; Bono, P

2011-02-15

Hypertension (HTN) is a common toxicity of anti-VEGF (vascular endothelial growth factor) antibody treatment. It may be a marker of VEGF signalling pathway inhibition and therefore represent a cancer biomarker in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients treated with chemotherapy and bevacizumab. A total of 101 consecutive patients with mCRC were treated with standard chemotherapy combined with bevacizumab at dose of 2.5 mg kg(-1) per week in a single centre. The median follow-up time of the patients alive was 64 months. Blood pressure was measured before each bevacizumab infusion, and HTN was graded according to common toxicity criteria for adverse events version 3.0. Overall, 57 patients (56%) developed ≥grade 1 HTN (median blood pressure 168/97 mm Hg), whereas 44 (44%) remained normotensive when treated with bevacizumab-containing chemotherapy regimen. Overall response rate was higher among patients with HTN (30 vs 20%; P=0.025). Hypertension was associated with improved progression-free survival (10.5 vs 5.3 months; P=0.008) and overall survival (25.8 vs 11.7 months; P<0.001), and development of HTN within 3 months had an independent, prognostic influence in a multivariate landmark survival analysis together with other known mCRC prognostic factors (P=0.007). There was no association between HTN and development of thromboembolic complications. Hypertension may predict outcome of bevacizumab-containing chemotherapy in mCRC. These data require confirmation in prospective studies including pharmacodynamic and pharmacokinetic analyses.

Restricted mean survival time: an alternative to the hazard ratio for the design and analysis of randomized trials with a time-to-event outcome

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Designs and analyses of clinical trials with a time-to-event outcome almost invariably rely on the hazard ratio to estimate the treatment effect and implicitly, therefore, on the proportional hazards assumption. However, the results of some recent trials indicate that there is no guarantee that the assumption will hold. Here, we describe the use of the restricted mean survival time as a possible alternative tool in the design and analysis of these trials. Methods The restricted mean is a measure of average survival from time 0 to a specified time point, and may be estimated as the area under the survival curve up to that point. We consider the design of such trials according to a wide range of possible survival distributions in the control and research arm(s). The distributions are conveniently defined as piecewise exponential distributions and can be specified through piecewise constant hazards and time-fixed or time-dependent hazard ratios. Such designs can embody proportional or non-proportional hazards of the treatment effect. Results We demonstrate the use of restricted mean survival time and a test of the difference in restricted means as an alternative measure of treatment effect. We support the approach through the results of simulation studies and in real examples from several cancer trials. We illustrate the required sample size under proportional and non-proportional hazards, also the significance level and power of the proposed test. Values are compared with those from the standard approach which utilizes the logrank test. Conclusions We conclude that the hazard ratio cannot be recommended as a general measure of the treatment effect in a randomized controlled trial, nor is it always appropriate when designing a trial. Restricted mean survival time may provide a practical way forward and deserves greater attention. PMID:24314264

Meta-analysis of single-arm survival studies: a distribution-free approach for estimating summary survival curves with random effects.

PubMed

Combescure, Christophe; Foucher, Yohann; Jackson, Daniel

2014-07-10

In epidemiologic studies and clinical trials with time-dependent outcome (for instance death or disease progression), survival curves are used to describe the risk of the event over time. In meta-analyses of studies reporting a survival curve, the most informative finding is a summary survival curve. In this paper, we propose a method to obtain a distribution-free summary survival curve by expanding the product-limit estimator of survival for aggregated survival data. The extension of DerSimonian and Laird's methodology for multiple outcomes is applied to account for the between-study heterogeneity. Statistics I(2)  and H(2) are used to quantify the impact of the heterogeneity in the published survival curves. A statistical test for between-strata comparison is proposed, with the aim to explore study-level factors potentially associated with survival. The performance of the proposed approach is evaluated in a simulation study. Our approach is also applied to synthesize the survival of untreated patients with hepatocellular carcinoma from aggregate data of 27 studies and synthesize the graft survival of kidney transplant recipients from individual data from six hospitals. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Biostatistical analysis of mortality data for cohorts of cancer patients.

PubMed Central

Pauling, L

1989-01-01

The Hardin Jones principle states that for a homogeneous cohort of cancer patients the logarithm of the fraction surviving at time t has a constant slope. With use of this principle, the survival times of the members of a heterogeneous cohort can be analyzed to divide the cohort into subcohorts with different mortality rate constants. Probable values of the additional survival time can be estimated for members surviving at the closing date of a clinical trial, permitting them to be included in the biostatistical analysis of the results of the trial in a more significant way than through Kaplan-Meier renormalization. PMID:2726729

Serum Neutrophil Gelatinase-Associated Lipocalin Predicts Survival After Resuscitation From Cardiac Arrest.

PubMed

Elmer, Jonathan; Jeong, Kwonho; Abebe, Kaleab Z; Guyette, Francis X; Murugan, Raghavan; Callaway, Clifton W; Rittenberger, Jon C

2016-01-01

In the first days after cardiac arrest, accurate prognostication is challenging. Serum biomarkers are a potentially attractive adjunct for prognostication and risk stratification. Our primary objective in this exploratory study was to identify novel early serum biomarkers that predict survival after cardiac arrest earlier than currently possible. Prospective, observational study. A single academic medical center. Adult subjects who sustained cardiac arrest with return of spontaneous circulation. None. We obtained blood samples from each subject at enrollment, 6, 12, 24, 48, and 72 hours after return of spontaneous circulation. We measured the serum levels of novel biomarkers, including neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin, high-mobility group protein B1, intracellular cell adhesion molecule-1, and leptin, as well as previously characterized biomarkers, including neuron-specific enolase and S100B protein. Our primary outcome of interest was survival-to-hospital discharge. We compared biomarker concentrations at each time point between survivors and nonsurvivors and used logistic regression to test the unadjusted associations of baseline clinical characteristics and enrollment biomarker levels with survival. Finally, we constructed a series of adjusted models to explore the independent association of each enrollment biomarker level with survival. A total of 86 subjects were enrolled. Enrollment levels of high-mobility group protein B1, neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin, and S100B were higher in nonsurvivors than survivors. Enrollment leptin, neuron-specific enolase, and intracellular cell adhesion molecule-1 levels did not differ between nonsurvivors and survivors. The discriminatory power of enrollment neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin level was the greatest (c-statistic, 0.78 [95% CI, 0.66-0.90]) and remained stable across all time points. In our adjusted models, enrollment neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin level was independently associated with survival even after controlling for the development of acute kidney injury, and its addition to clinical models improved overall predictive accuracy. Serum neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin levels are strongly predictive of survival-to-hospital discharge after cardiac arrest.

First Direct Evidence for Natal Wintering Ground Fidelity and Estimate of Juvenile Survival in the New Zealand Southern Right Whale Eubalaena australis.

PubMed

Carroll, E L; Fewster, R M; Childerhouse, S J; Patenaude, N J; Boren, L; Baker, C S

2016-01-01

Juvenile survival and recruitment can be more sensitive to environmental, ecological and anthropogenic factors than adult survival, influencing population-level processes like recruitment and growth rate in long-lived, iteroparous species such as southern right whales. Conventionally, Southern right whales are individually identified using callosity patterns, which do not stabilise until 6-12 months, by which time the whale has left its natal wintering grounds. Here we use DNA profiling of skin biopsy samples to identify individual Southern right whales from year of birth and document their return to the species' primary wintering ground in New Zealand waters, the Subantarctic Auckland Islands. We find evidence of natal fidelity to the New Zealand wintering ground by the recapture of 15 of 57 whales, first sampled in year of birth and available for subsequent recapture, during winter surveys to the Auckland Islands in 1995-1998 and 2006-2009. Four individuals were recaptured at the ages of 9 to 11, including two females first sampled as calves in 1998 and subsequently resampled as cows with calves in 2007. Using these capture-recapture records of known-age individuals, we estimate changes in survival with age using Cormack-Jolly-Seber models. Survival is modelled using discrete age classes and as a continuous function of age. Using a bootstrap method to account for uncertainty in model selection and fitting, we provide the first direct estimate of juvenile survival for this population. Our analyses indicate a high annual apparent survival for juveniles at between 0.87 (standard error (SE) 0.17, to age 1) and 0.95 (SE 0.05: ages 2-8). Individual identification by DNA profiling is an effective method for long-term demographic and genetic monitoring, particularly in animals that change identifiable features as they develop or experience tag loss over time.

A Field Evaluation of an External and Neutrally Buoyant Acoustic Transmitter for Juvenile Salmon: Implications for Estimating Hydroturbine Passage Survival

PubMed Central

Brown, Richard S.; Deng, Z. Daniel; Cook, Katrina V.; Pflugrath, Brett D.; Li, Xinya; Fu, Tao; Martinez, Jayson J.; Li, Huidong; Trumbo, Bradly A.; Ahmann, Martin L.; Seaburg, Adam G.

2013-01-01

Turbine-passed fish are exposed to rapid decreases in pressure which can cause barotrauma. The presence of an implanted telemetry tag increases the likelihood of injury or death from exposure to pressure changes, thus potentially biasing studies evaluating survival of turbine-passed fish. Therefore, a neutrally buoyant externally attached tag was developed to eliminate this bias in turbine passage studies. This new tag was designed not to add excess mass in water or take up space in the coelom, having an effective tag burden of zero with the goal of reducing pressure related biases to turbine survival studies. To determine if this new tag affects fish performance or susceptibility to predation, it was evaluated in the field relative to internally implanted acoustic transmitters (JSATS; Juvenile Salmon Acoustic Telemetry System) used widely for survival studies of juvenile salmonids. Survival and travel time through the study reach was compared between fish with either tag type in an area of high predation in the Snake and Columbia rivers, Washington. An additional group of fish affixed with neutrally-buoyant dummy external tags were implanted with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags and recovered further downstream to assess external tag retention and injury. There were no significant differences in survival to the first detection site, 12 river kilometers (rkm) downstream of release. Travel times were also similar between groups. Conversely, externally-tagged fish had reduced survival (or elevated tag loss) to the second detection site, 65 rkm downstream. In addition, the retention study revealed that tag loss was first observed in fish recaptured approximately 9 days after release. Results suggest that this new tag may be viable for short term (<8 days) single-dam turbine-passage studies and under these situations, may alleviate the turbine passage-related bias encountered when using internal tags, however further research is needed to confirm this. PMID:24204947

First Direct Evidence for Natal Wintering Ground Fidelity and Estimate of Juvenile Survival in the New Zealand Southern Right Whale Eubalaena australis

PubMed Central

Carroll, E. L.; Fewster, R. M.; Childerhouse, S. J.; Patenaude, N. J.; Boren, L.; Baker, C. S.

2016-01-01

Juvenile survival and recruitment can be more sensitive to environmental, ecological and anthropogenic factors than adult survival, influencing population-level processes like recruitment and growth rate in long-lived, iteroparous species such as southern right whales. Conventionally, Southern right whales are individually identified using callosity patterns, which do not stabilise until 6–12 months, by which time the whale has left its natal wintering grounds. Here we use DNA profiling of skin biopsy samples to identify individual Southern right whales from year of birth and document their return to the species’ primary wintering ground in New Zealand waters, the Subantarctic Auckland Islands. We find evidence of natal fidelity to the New Zealand wintering ground by the recapture of 15 of 57 whales, first sampled in year of birth and available for subsequent recapture, during winter surveys to the Auckland Islands in 1995–1998 and 2006–2009. Four individuals were recaptured at the ages of 9 to 11, including two females first sampled as calves in 1998 and subsequently resampled as cows with calves in 2007. Using these capture-recapture records of known-age individuals, we estimate changes in survival with age using Cormack-Jolly-Seber models. Survival is modelled using discrete age classes and as a continuous function of age. Using a bootstrap method to account for uncertainty in model selection and fitting, we provide the first direct estimate of juvenile survival for this population. Our analyses indicate a high annual apparent survival for juveniles at between 0.87 (standard error (SE) 0.17, to age 1) and 0.95 (SE 0.05: ages 2–8). Individual identification by DNA profiling is an effective method for long-term demographic and genetic monitoring, particularly in animals that change identifiable features as they develop or experience tag loss over time. PMID:26751689

A field evaluation of an external and neutrally buoyant acoustic transmitter for juvenile salmon: implications for estimating hydroturbine passage survival.

PubMed

Brown, Richard S; Deng, Z Daniel; Cook, Katrina V; Pflugrath, Brett D; Li, Xinya; Fu, Tao; Martinez, Jayson J; Li, Huidong; Trumbo, Bradly A; Ahmann, Martin L; Seaburg, Adam G

2013-01-01

Turbine-passed fish are exposed to rapid decreases in pressure which can cause barotrauma. The presence of an implanted telemetry tag increases the likelihood of injury or death from exposure to pressure changes, thus potentially biasing studies evaluating survival of turbine-passed fish. Therefore, a neutrally buoyant externally attached tag was developed to eliminate this bias in turbine passage studies. This new tag was designed not to add excess mass in water or take up space in the coelom, having an effective tag burden of zero with the goal of reducing pressure related biases to turbine survival studies. To determine if this new tag affects fish performance or susceptibility to predation, it was evaluated in the field relative to internally implanted acoustic transmitters (JSATS; Juvenile Salmon Acoustic Telemetry System) used widely for survival studies of juvenile salmonids. Survival and travel time through the study reach was compared between fish with either tag type in an area of high predation in the Snake and Columbia rivers, Washington. An additional group of fish affixed with neutrally-buoyant dummy external tags were implanted with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags and recovered further downstream to assess external tag retention and injury. There were no significant differences in survival to the first detection site, 12 river kilometers (rkm) downstream of release. Travel times were also similar between groups. Conversely, externally-tagged fish had reduced survival (or elevated tag loss) to the second detection site, 65 rkm downstream. In addition, the retention study revealed that tag loss was first observed in fish recaptured approximately 9 days after release. Results suggest that this new tag may be viable for short term (<8 days) single-dam turbine-passage studies and under these situations, may alleviate the turbine passage-related bias encountered when using internal tags, however further research is needed to confirm this.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Diefenderfer, Heida L.; Johnson, Gary E.; Sather, Nichole K.

This report describes the 2010 research conducted under the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) project EST-P-09-1, titled Evaluation of Life History Diversity, Habitat Connectivity, and Survival Benefits Associated with Habitat Restoration Actions in the Lower Columbia River and Estuary, and known as the 'Salmon Benefits' study. The primary goal of the study is to establish scientific methods to quantify habitat restoration benefits to listed salmon and trout in the lower Columbia River and estuary (LCRE) in three required areas: habitat connectivity, early life history diversity, and survival (Figure ES.1). The general study approach was to first evaluate the statemore » of the science regarding the ability to quantify benefits to listed salmon and trout from habitat restoration actions in the LCRE in the 2009 project year, and then, if feasible, in subsequent project years to develop quantitative indices of habitat connectivity, early life history diversity, and survival. Based on the 2009 literature review, the following definitions are used in this study. Habitat connectivity is defined as a landscape descriptor concerning the ability of organisms to move among habitat patches, including the spatial arrangement of habitats (structural connectivity) and how the perception and behavior of salmon affect the potential for movement among habitats (functional connectivity). Life history is defined as the combination of traits exhibited by an organism throughout its life cycle, and for the purposes of this investigation, a life history strategy refers to the body size and temporal patterns of estuarine usage exhibited by migrating juvenile salmon. Survival is defined as the probability of fish remaining alive over a defined amount of space and/or time. The objectives of the 4-year study are as follows: (1) develop and test a quantitative index of juvenile salmon habitat connectivity in the LCRE incorporating structural, functional, and hydrologic components; (2) develop and test a quantitative index of the early life history diversity of juvenile salmon in the LCRE; (3) assess and, if feasible, develop and test a quantitative index of the survival benefits of tidal wetland habitat restoration (hydrologic reconnection) in the LCRE; and (4) synthesize the results of investigations into the indices for habitat connectivity, early life history diversity, and survival benefits.« less

Recent Salmon Declines: A Result of Lost Feeding Opportunities Due to Bad Timing?

PubMed Central

Chittenden, Cedar M.; Jensen, Jenny L. A.; Ewart, David; Anderson, Shannon; Balfry, Shannon; Downey, Elan; Eaves, Alexandra; Saksida, Sonja; Smith, Brian; Vincent, Stephen; Welch, David; McKinley, R. Scott

2010-01-01

As the timing of spring productivity blooms in near-shore areas advances due to warming trends in global climate, the selection pressures on out-migrating salmon smolts are shifting. Species and stocks that leave natal streams earlier may be favoured over later-migrating fish. The low post-release survival of hatchery fish during recent years may be in part due to static release times that do not take the timing of plankton blooms into account. This study examined the effects of release time on the migratory behaviour and survival of wild and hatchery-reared coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) using acoustic and coded-wire telemetry. Plankton monitoring and near-shore seining were also conducted to determine which habitat and food sources were favoured. Acoustic tags (n = 140) and coded-wire tags (n = 266,692) were implanted into coho salmon smolts at the Seymour and Quinsam Rivers, in British Columbia, Canada. Differences between wild and hatchery fish, and early and late releases were examined during the entire lifecycle. Physiological sampling was also carried out on 30 fish from each release group. The smolt-to-adult survival of coho salmon released during periods of high marine productivity was 1.5- to 3-fold greater than those released both before and after, and the fish's degree of smoltification affected their downstream migration time and duration of stay in the estuary. Therefore, hatchery managers should consider having smolts fully developed and ready for release during the peak of the near-shore plankton blooms. Monitoring chlorophyll a levels and water temperature early in the spring could provide a forecast of the timing of these blooms, giving hatcheries time to adjust their release schedule. PMID:20805978

Intrathecal trastuzumab in the management of HER2+ breast leptomeningeal disease: a single institution experience.

PubMed

Figura, Nicholas B; Long, Wendy; Yu, Michael; Robinson, Timothy J; Mokhtari, Sepideh; Etame, Arnold B; Tran, Nam D; Diaz, Roberto; Soliman, Hatem; Han, Heather S; Sahebjam, Solmaz; Forsyth, Peter A; Ahmed, Kamran A

2018-06-01

Leptomeningeal disease is a rare and devastating presentation of advanced stage metastatic breast cancer with historically poor overall survival. We assessed the safety and feasibility of intrathecal (IT) trastuzumab in HER2+ leptomeningeal disease. A total of 13 patients were treated at our institution with IT trastuzumab beginning November 2012 and followed until November 2017. Outcomes including craniospinal progression as well as overall survival (OS) following initiation of IT trastuzumab were assessed from review of the clinical chart and radiologic examinations. The median age of patients was 48 (range 29-75). Median time from breast cancer diagnosis to development of brain metastases was 87.7 months with a median of 4.6 months from brain metastases diagnosis to the development of leptomeningeal disease. Previous whole brain radiotherapy was received by the majority of patients (92%) and prior surgery for brain metastases was performed in 23%. Median duration of IT trastuzumab treatment was 6.4 months. Median time from IT trastuzumab start to craniospinal progression was 5.7 months with 6- and 12-month Kaplan-Meier rates of 41 and 21%, respectively. Sustained responses > 6 months were achieved in 4 patients. Median survival from the start of IT trastuzumab was 10.6 months with 6- and 12-month OS rates of 68 and 47%, respectively. IT trastuzumab was well tolerated with one patient developing ventriculitis, which resolved with IV antibiotics. IT trastuzumab was well tolerated with prolongation of OS over historical controls. IT trastuzumab should be considered for management of HER2+ leptomeningeal disease patients.

Insecticide resistance and nutrition interactively shape life-history parameters in German cockroaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jensen, Kim; Ko, Alexander E.; Schal, Coby; Silverman, Jules

2016-06-01

Fitness-related costs of evolving insecticide resistance have been reported in a number of insect species, but the interplay between evolutionary adaptation to insecticide pressure and variable environmental conditions has received little attention. We provisioned nymphs from three German cockroach (Blattella germanica L.) populations, which differed in insecticide resistance, with either nutritionally rich or poor (diluted) diet throughout their development. One population was an insecticide-susceptible laboratory strain; the other two populations originated from a field-collected indoxacarb-resistant population, which upon collection was maintained either with or without further selection with indoxacarb. We then measured development time, survival to the adult stage, adult body size, and results of a challenge with indoxacarb. Our results show that indoxacarb resistance and poor nutritional condition increased development time and lowered adult body size, with reinforcing interactions. We also found lower survival to the adult stage in the indoxacarb-selected population, which was exacerbated by poor nutrition. In addition, nutrition imparted a highly significant effect on indoxacarb susceptibility. This study exemplifies how poor nutritional condition can aggravate the life-history costs of resistance and elevate the detrimental effects of insecticide exposure, demonstrating how environmental conditions and resistance may interactively impact individual fitness and insecticide efficacy.

Surgery Increases Survival in Patients With Gastrinoma

PubMed Central

Norton, Jeffrey A.; Fraker, Douglas L.; Alexander, H R.; Gibril, Fathia; Liewehr, David J.; Venzon, David J.; Jensen, Robert T.

2006-01-01

Objective: To determine whether the routine use of surgical exploration for gastrinoma resection/cure in 160 patients with Zollinger-Ellison syndrome (ZES) altered survival compared with 35 ZES patients who did not undergo surgery. Summary Background Data: The role of routine surgical exploration for resection/cure in patients with ZES has been controversial since the original description of this disease in 1955. This controversy continues today, not only because medical therapy for acid hypersecretion is so effective, but also in large part because no studies have shown an effect of tumor resection on survival. Methods: Long-term follow-up of 160 ZES patients who underwent routine surgery for gastrinoma/resection/cure was compared with 35 patients who had similar disease but did not undergo surgery for a variety of reasons. All patients had preoperative CT, MRI, ultrasound; if unclear, angiography and somatostatin receptor scintigraphy since 1994 to determine resectability. At surgery, all had the same standard ZES operation. All patients were evaluated yearly with imaging studies and disease activity studies. Results: The 35 nonsurgical patients did not differ from the 160 operated in clinical, laboratory, or tumor imaging results. The 2 groups did not differ in follow-up time since initial evaluation (range, 11.8–12 years). At surgery, 94% had a tumor removed, 51% were cured immediately, and 41% at last follow-up. Significantly more unoperated patients developed liver metastases (29% vs. 5%, P = 0.0002), died of any cause (54 vs. 21%, P = 0.0002), or died a disease-related death (23 vs. 1%, P < 0.00001). Survival plots showed operated patients had a better disease-related survival (P = 0.0012); however, there was no difference in non-disease-related survival. Fifteen-year disease-related survival was 98% for operated and 74% for unoperated (P = 0.0002). Conclusions: These results demonstrate that routine surgical exploration increases survival in patients with ZES by increasing disease-related survival and decreasing the development of advanced disease. Routine surgical exploration should be performed in ZES patients. PMID:16926567

Caregiver Behavior Change for Child Survival and Development in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: An Examination of the Evidence

PubMed Central

Elder, John P.; Pequegnat, Willo; Ahmed, Saifuddin; Bachman, Gretchen; Bullock, Merry; Carlo, Waldemar A.; Chandra-Mouli, Venkatraman; Fox, Nathan A.; Harkness, Sara; Huebner, Gillian; Lombardi, Joan; Murry, Velma McBride; Moran, Allisyn; Norton, Maureen; Mulik, Jennifer; Parks, Will; Raikes, Helen H.; Smyser, Joseph; Sugg, Caroline; Sweat, Michael

2014-01-01

In June of 2012, representatives from more than 80 countries promulgated a Child Survival Call to Action, which called for reducing child mortality to 20 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births in every country by 2035. To address the problem of ending preventable child deaths, the U.S. Agency for International Development and the United Nations Children's Fund convened, on June 3–4, 2013, an Evidence Summit on Enhancing Child Survival and Development in Lower- and Middle-Income Countries by Achieving Population-Level Behavior Change. Six evidence review teams were established on different topics related to child survival and healthy development to identify the relevant evidence-based interventions and to prepare reports. This article was developed by the evidence review team responsible for identifying the research literature on caregiver change for child survival and development. This article is organized into childhood developmental periods and cross-cutting issues that affect child survival and healthy early development across all these periods. On the basis of this review, the authors present evidence-based recommendations for programs focused on caregivers to increase child survival and promote healthy development. Last, promising directions for future research to change caregivers' behaviors are given. PMID:25315597

Current state of biomarker development for clinical application in epithelial ovarian cancer

PubMed Central

Moore, Richard G.; MacLaughlan, Shannon; Bast, Robert C.

2011-01-01

Each year in the United States over 15,000 women die of epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC)and 22,000 are diagnosed with the disease. The incidence of ovarian cancer has remained stable over the past decade however, survival rates have improved steadily. Increases in survival rates can be attributed to the advances in surgical management, development of effective cytotoxic drugs and the route of administration of chemotherapy. Ovarian cancer survival rates could also be improved through screening and early detection. Disappointingly, effective screening methods have not been established and continue to be elusive. Historically the goal of a screening test was to achieve a positive predictive value (PPV) greater than 10% in order be considered cost effective and have an acceptable risk for the population being screened. Despite the inability of currently available screening algorithms to achieve the desired PPV there may be an advantage in producing a stage migration to lower stages at the time of diagnoses, thereby resulting in improved survival. Equally important recent studies have demonstrated that women who have their initial surgery performed by gynecologic oncologists, and women who have their surgeries at centers experienced in the treatment of ovarian cancer have higher survival rates. For these reasons it is essential that all women at high risk for ovarian cancer receive their initial care by gynecologic oncologists and at centers with multidisciplinary teams experienced in the optimal care of ovarian cancer patients. With this in mind, methods that facilitate the accurate triage of women who will ultimately be diagnosed with ovarian cancer could play a significant role in improving survival rates for these patients. This review article will examine the current state of biomarker use in ovarian cancer screening, risk assessment and for monitoring ovarian cancer patients. PMID:19879639

Treatment developments and the unfolding of the quality of life discussion in childhood medulloblastoma: a review.

PubMed

Gudrunardottir, Thora; Lannering, Birgitta; Remke, Marc; Taylor, Michael D; Wells, Elizabeth M; Keating, Robert F; Packer, Roger J

2014-06-01

To describe how the quality of life (QOL) discussion in childhood medulloblastoma (MB) relates to treatment developments, survival and sequelae from 1920 to 2014. Articles containing "childhood medulloblastoma" and "quality of life" were identified in PubMed. Those containing phrases pertaining to psychological, emotional, behavioral or social adjustment in the title, abstract or keywords were selected. Inclusion of relevant older publications was assured by cross-checking references. 1920-1930s: suction, electro-surgery, kilovolt (KV) irradiation. Survival = months. Focus on operative mortality, symptoms and survival. 1940s: radiotherapy improved. 1950s: chemotherapy and intubation. Survival = years. Opinions oscillated between optimism/awareness of physical sequelae of radiotherapy. 1960s: magnified vision, ventriculo-peritoneal (VP) shunts, megavolt (MV) irradiation. Long-term survival shifted the attention towards neurological problems, disability and carcinogenesis of radiotherapy. 1970s: CT, microscope, bipolar coagulation, shunt filters, neuroanesthesia, chemotherapy trials and staging studies. Operative mortality decreased and many patients (re)entered school; emphasis on neuropsychological sequelae, IQ and academic performance. 1980s: magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), Cavitron ultrasonic aspiration (CUSA), laser surgery, hyper-fractionated radiotherapy (HFRT). Cerebellar mutism, psychological and social issues. 1990s: pediatric neurosurgery, proton beams, stem cell rescue. Reflections on QOL as such. 21st century: molecular genetics. Premature aging, patterns of decline, risk- and resilience factors. QOL is a critical outcome measure. Focus depends on survival and sequelae, determined after years of follow-up. Detailed measurements are limited by time, money and human resources, and self-reporting questionnaires represent a crude measure limited by subjectivity. Therapeutic improvements raise the question of QOL versus cure. QOL is a potential primary research endpoint; multicenter international studies are needed, as are web-based tools that work across cultures.

Breeding Young as a Survival Strategy during Earth’s Greatest Mass Extinction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Botha-Brink, Jennifer; Codron, Daryl; Huttenlocker, Adam K.; Angielczyk, Kenneth D.; Ruta, Marcello

2016-04-01

Studies of the effects of mass extinctions on ancient ecosystems have focused on changes in taxic diversity, morphological disparity, abundance, behaviour and resource availability as key determinants of group survival. Crucially, the contribution of life history traits to survival during terrestrial mass extinctions has not been investigated, despite the critical role of such traits for population viability. We use bone microstructure and body size data to investigate the palaeoecological implications of changes in life history strategies in the therapsid forerunners of mammals before and after the Permo-Triassic Mass Extinction (PTME), the most catastrophic crisis in Phanerozoic history. Our results are consistent with truncated development, shortened life expectancies, elevated mortality rates and higher extinction risks amongst post-extinction species. Various simulations of ecological dynamics indicate that an earlier onset of reproduction leading to shortened generation times could explain the persistence of therapsids in the unpredictable, resource-limited Early Triassic environments, and help explain observed body size distributions of some disaster taxa (e.g., Lystrosaurus). Our study accounts for differential survival in mammal ancestors after the PTME and provides a methodological framework for quantifying survival strategies in other vertebrates during major biotic crises.

Cardiac transplantation in South Carolina: 300 transplants.

PubMed

Crumbley, A J; Odom, Sylvia; Van Bakel, Adrian B; Pereira, Naveen; Ikonomidis, John S; Bradley, Scott; Kratz, John M; Sade, Robert M; Uber, Walt; Stroud, Martha R; Crawford, Fred A

2006-02-01

For nearly 20 years, the Medical University's Heart Transplant Program has been providing the citizens of South Carolina with excellent results with a minimum of delay. We present here the results of our first 300 heart transplants, spanning the first 18 years of the Cardiac Transplant Program at the Medical University. Overall survival has been very good, with one, five and ten year survival rates in the adults being 92 +/- 2%, 78 +/- 3%, and 58 +/- 4%. The children's group showed survival rates of 94 +/- 5%, 79 +/- 11%, and 79 +/- 11% over the same lengths of time. Most recently, the federally sponsored Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (www.ustransplant.org, July 2005) reports for MUSC a one-year survival of 97.67% and three-year survival of 90.74%; both leading the Southeast. We attribute this success to the dedicated work of health care workers at all levels who believe in attention to detail and that the patient always comes first. It is our hope that we will be able to continue to provide expert, state-of-the-art, cardiac transplant services long into the future, while continuing to expand our heart failure management program as dictated by further developments in this rapidly evolving specialty.

Hepatoblastoma in children with Beckwith-Wiedemann syndrome: does it warrant different treatment?

PubMed

Trobaugh-Lotrario, Angela D; Venkatramani, Rajkumar; Feusner, James H

2014-07-01

Patients with Beckwith-Wiedemann Syndrome (BWS) are predisposed to developing hepatoblastoma. Clinical data were reviewed in all cases of hepatoblastoma in patients with BWS reported in the literature and from personal cases. Patients were identified by literature review using PubMed and by a search of the authors' local tumor registries. Fifty-six patients were identified. The median age of presentation with hepatoblastoma was 6 months (range birth-30 mo). Thirteen of 26 patients were born prematurely. Of 31 evaluable patients, 19 exhibited hemihypertrophy. Thirty-two of 33 patients with α-fetoprotein data reported had elevated levels at diagnosis. Overall survival was 75% (27 of 36 patients). Of 25 patients with data who survived, 24 were treated with chemotherapy and surgery (vs. only 2 of 8 who did not survive). All 9 patients with hepatoblastoma detected by routine screening with outcomes reported were surviving at the time of the reports. Overall survival was high in patients with BWS and hepatoblastoma, especially given lower stage at presentation and when treated with surgery and chemotherapy. Future prospective trials should evaluate if BWS is independently associated with outcome and if the outcome is improved by routine screening.

Breeding Young as a Survival Strategy during Earth's Greatest Mass Extinction.

PubMed

Botha-Brink, Jennifer; Codron, Daryl; Huttenlocker, Adam K; Angielczyk, Kenneth D; Ruta, Marcello

2016-04-05

Studies of the effects of mass extinctions on ancient ecosystems have focused on changes in taxic diversity, morphological disparity, abundance, behaviour and resource availability as key determinants of group survival. Crucially, the contribution of life history traits to survival during terrestrial mass extinctions has not been investigated, despite the critical role of such traits for population viability. We use bone microstructure and body size data to investigate the palaeoecological implications of changes in life history strategies in the therapsid forerunners of mammals before and after the Permo-Triassic Mass Extinction (PTME), the most catastrophic crisis in Phanerozoic history. Our results are consistent with truncated development, shortened life expectancies, elevated mortality rates and higher extinction risks amongst post-extinction species. Various simulations of ecological dynamics indicate that an earlier onset of reproduction leading to shortened generation times could explain the persistence of therapsids in the unpredictable, resource-limited Early Triassic environments, and help explain observed body size distributions of some disaster taxa (e.g., Lystrosaurus). Our study accounts for differential survival in mammal ancestors after the PTME and provides a methodological framework for quantifying survival strategies in other vertebrates during major biotic crises.

Diurnal variation in probability of death following self-poisoning in Sri Lanka—evidence for chronotoxicity in humans

PubMed Central

Metcalfe, Chris; Gunnell, David; Mohamed, Fahim; Eddleston, Michael

2012-01-01

Background The absorption, distribution, metabolism and elimination of medicines are partly controlled by transporters and enzymes with diurnal variation in expression. Dose timing may be important for maximizing therapeutic and minimizing adverse effects. However, outcome data for such an effect in humans are sparse, and chronotherapeutics is consequently less practised. We examined a large prospective Sri Lankan cohort of patients with acute poisoning to seek evidence of diurnal variation in the probability of survival. Methods In all, 14 840 patients admitted to hospital after yellow oleander (Cascabela thevetia) seed or pesticide [organophosphorus (OP), carbamate, paraquat, glyphosate] self-poisoning were investigated for variation in survival according to time of ingestion. Results We found strong evidence that the outcome of oleander poisoning was associated with time of ingestion (P < 0.001). There was weaker evidence for OP insecticides (P = 0.041) and no evidence of diurnal variation in the outcome for carbamate, glyphosate and paraquat pesticides. Compared with ingestion in the late morning, and with confounding by age, sex, time of and delay to hospital presentation and year of admission controlled, case fatality of oleander poisoning was over 50% lower following evening ingestion (risk ratio = 0.40, 95% confidence interval 0.26–0.62). Variation in dose across the day was not responsible. Conclusions We have shown for the first time that timing of poison ingestion affects survival in humans. This evidence for chronotoxicity suggests chronotherapeutics should be given greater attention in drug development and clinical practice. PMID:23179303

Cognitively-Related Basic Activities of Daily Living Impairment Greatly Increases the Risk of Death in Alzheimers Disease.

PubMed

Liang, Fu-Wen; Chan, Wenyaw; Chen, Ping-Jen; Zimmerman, Carissa; Waring, Stephen; Doody, Rachelle

2016-01-01

Some Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients die without ever developing cognitively impaired basic activities of daily living (basic ADL), which may reflect slower disease progression or better compensatory mechanisms. Although impaired basic ADL is related to disease severity, it may exert an independent risk for death. This study examined the association between impaired basic ADL and survival of AD patients, and proposed a multistate approach for modeling the time to death for patients who demonstrate different patterns of progression of AD that do or do not include basic ADL impairment. 1029 patients with probable AD at the Baylor College of Medicine Alzheimer's Disease and Memory Disorders Center met the criteria for this study. Two complementary definitions were used to define development of basic ADL impairment using the Physical Self-Maintenance Scale score. A weighted Cox regression model, including a time-dependent covariate (development of basic ADL impairment), and a multistate survival model were applied to examine the effect of basic ADL impairment on survival. As expected decreased ability to perform basic ADL at baseline, age at initial visit, years of education, and sex were all associated with significantly higher mortality risk. In those unimpaired at baseline, the development of basic ADL impairment was also associated with a much greater risk of death (hazard ratios 1.77-4.06) over and above the risk conferred by loss of MMSE points. A multi-state Cox model, controlling for those other variables quantified the substantive increase in hazard ratios for death conferred by the development of basic ADL impairment by two definitions and can be applied to calculate the short term risk of mortality in individual patients. The current study demonstrates that the presence of basic ADL impairment or the development of such impairments are important predictors of death in AD patients, regardless of severity.

Recruitments of trained citizen volunteering for conventional cardiopulmonary resuscitation are necessary to improve the outcome after out-of-hospital cardiac arrests in remote time-distance area: A nationwide population-based study.

PubMed

Takei, Yutaka; Kamikura, Takahisa; Nishi, Taiki; Maeda, Tetsuo; Sakagami, Satoru; Kubo, Minoru; Inaba, Hideo

2016-08-01

To compare the factors associated with survival after out-of-hospital cardiac arrests (OHCAs) among three time-distance areas (defined as interquartile range of time for emergency medical services response to patient's side). From a nationwide, prospectively collected data on 716,608 OHCAs between 2007 and 2012, this study analyzed 193,914 bystander-witnessed OHCAs without pre-hospital physician involvement. Overall neurologically favourable 1-month survival rates were 7.4%, 4.1% and 1.7% for close, intermediate and remote areas, respectively. We classified BCPR by type (compression-only vs. conventional) and by dispatcher-assisted CPR (DA-CPR) (with vs. without); the effects on time-distance area survival were analyzed by BCPR classification. Association of each BCPR classification with survival was affected by time-distance area and arrest aetiology (p<0.05). The survival rates in the remote area were much higher with conventional BCPR than with compression-only BCPR (odds ratio; 95% confidence interval, 1.26; 1.05-1.51) and with BCPR without DA-CPR than with BCPR with DA-CPR (1.54; 1.29-1.82). Accordingly, we classified BCPR into five groups (no BCPR, compression-only with DA-CPR, conventional with DA-CPR, compression-only without DA-CPR, and conventional without DA-CPR) and analyzed for associations with survival, both cardiac and non-cardiac related, in each time-distance area by multivariate logistic regression analysis. In the remote area, conventional BCPR without DA-CPR significantly improved survival after OHCAs of cardiac aetiology, compared with all the other BCPR groups. Other correctable factors associated with survival were short collapse-to-call and call-to-first CPR intervals. Every effort to recruit trained citizens initiating conventional BCPR should be made in remote time-distance areas. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Levels of gemcitabine transport and metabolism proteins predict survival times of patients treated with gemcitabine for pancreatic adenocarcinoma.

PubMed

Maréchal, Raphaël; Bachet, Jean-Baptiste; Mackey, John R; Dalban, Cécile; Demetter, Pieter; Graham, Kathryn; Couvelard, Anne; Svrcek, Magali; Bardier-Dupas, Armelle; Hammel, Pascal; Sauvanet, Alain; Louvet, Christophe; Paye, François; Rougier, Philippe; Penna, Christophe; André, Thierry; Dumontet, Charles; Cass, Carol E; Jordheim, Lars Petter; Matera, Eva-Laure; Closset, Jean; Salmon, Isabelle; Devière, Jacques; Emile, Jean-François; Van Laethem, Jean-Luc

2012-09-01

Patients who undergo surgery for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) frequently receive adjuvant gemcitabine chemotherapy. Key determinants of gemcitabine cytotoxicity include the activities of the human equilibrative nucleoside transporter 1 (hENT1), deoxycytidine kinase (dCK), and ribonucleotide reductase subunit 1 (RRM1). We investigated whether tumor levels of these proteins were associated with efficacy of gemcitabine therapy following surgery. Sequential samples of resected PDACs were retrospectively collected from 434 patients at 5 centers; 142 patients did not receive adjuvant treatment (33%), 243 received adjuvant gemcitabine-based regimens (56%), and 49 received nongemcitabine regimens (11%). We measured protein levels of hENT1, dCK, and RRM1 by semiquantitative immunohistochemistry with tissue microarrays and investigated their relationship with patients' overall survival time. The median overall survival time of patients was 32.0 months. Among patients who did not receive adjuvant treatment, levels of hENT1, RRM1, and dCK were not associated with survival time. Among patients who received gemcitabine, high levels of hENT1 and dCK were significantly associated with longer survival time (hazard ratios of 0.34 [P < .0001] and 0.57 [P = .012], respectively). Interaction tests for gemcitabine administration and hENT1 and dCK status were statistically significant (P = .0007 and P = .016, respectively). On multivariate analysis of this population, hENT1 and dCK retained independent predictive values, and those patients with high levels of each protein had the longest survival times following adjuvant therapy with gemcitabine. High levels of hENT1 and dCK in PDAC predict longer survival times in patients treated with adjuvant gemcitabine. Copyright © 2012 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Survival of juvenile black brant during brood rearing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Paul L.; Sedinger, James S.; Pollock, Kenneth H.

1995-01-01

Survival of young is an important and poorly understood component of waterfowl productivity. We estimated survival of black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) goslings during summers 1987-89 on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska, to determine timing and magnitude of gosling mortality and to compare methods of estimating gosling survival. Eighty-two percent of radio-tagged adult females (n = 61) fledged ≥1 gosling (brood success). We estimated survival of goslings within broods by 3 methods: (1) changes in mean brood size through time, (2) observation of goslings associated with marked adults, and (3) age ratios of brant captured in banding drives. Estimates of gosling survival within successful broods averaged 81% and ranged from 66 to 92%. Combining brood success and gosling survival within successful broods yielded estimates of overall gosling survival that averaged 68%, ranging from 79% in 1987 to 56% in 1989. Eighty-two percent of gosling mortality occurred in the first 15 days. Estimates of survival on the basis of age ratios of birds captured in banding drives are biased low. Our estimates of average gosling survival are higher than reported for other species of geese.

Dynamic patient counseling: a novel concept in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

PubMed

Brown, A Whitney; Shlobin, Oksana A; Weir, Nargues; Albano, Maria C; Ahmad, Shahzad; Smith, Mary; Leslie, Kevin; Nathan, Steven D

2012-10-01

The characteristics of long-term survivors with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) have never been fully elucidated. We sought to illustrate the attenuated mortality and describe the characteristics of patients with IPF who survived at least 5 years beyond their initial presentation. Patients with IPF evaluated between 1997 and 2006 were identified through the clinic database. Patients who survived beyond 5 years from the time of their evaluation were compared with those who died or underwent lung transplantation within 5 years. Survival analyses were performed from the time of initial evaluation and contingent on annualized survival thereafter. Eighty-seven patients who survived at least 5 years formed the comparator group to whom other patients were contrasted. These patients had a higher BMI, FVC % predicted, FEV1 % predicted, total lung capacity % predicted, and diffusing capacity of lung for carbon monoxide % predicted, but a lower FEV1/FVC ratio and lower mean pulmonary artery pressures. More than one-half of these patients had moderate or severe disease at the time of presentation. Our annualized contingent survival analyses revealed a progressively increasing median survival dependent on the duration of the disease. Although we were able to demonstrate differences in our 5-year survivors, rather than being a distinct group, these patients appear to exist within a continuum of improving survival dependent on prior disease duration. This progressively improving time-dependent prognosis mandates the serial reevaluation of an individual patient’s projected outcomes. The implementation of dynamic counseling is an important concept in more accurately predicting life expectancy for patients with IPF who are frequently haunted by the prospects of a dismal survival.

Optimal Timing of Heart Transplant After HeartMate II Left Ventricular Assist Device Implantation.

PubMed

Steffen, Robert J; Blackstone, Eugene H; Smedira, Nicholas G; Soltesz, Edward G; Hoercher, Katherine J; Thuita, Lucy; Starling, Randall C; Mountis, Maria; Moazami, Nader

2017-11-01

Optimal timing of heart transplantation in patients supported with second-generation left ventricular assist devices (LVADs) is unknown. Despite this, patients with LVADs continue to receive priority on the heart transplant waiting list. Our objective was to determine the optimal timing of transplantation for patients bridged with continuous-flow LVADs. A total of 301 HeartMate II LVADs (Thoratec Corp, Pleasanton, CA) were implanted in 285 patients from October 2004 to June 2013, and 86 patients underwent transplantation through the end of follow-up. Optimal transplantation timing was the product of surviving on LVAD support and surviving transplant. Three-year survival after both HeartMate II implantation and heart transplantation was unchanged when transplantation occurred within 9 months of implantation. Survival decreased as the duration of support exceeded this. Preoperative risk factors for death on HeartMate II support were prior valve operation, prior coronary artery bypass grafting, low albumin, low glomerular filtration rate, higher mean arterial pressure, hypertension, and earlier date of implant. Survival for patients without these risk factors was lowest when transplant was performed within 3 months but was relatively constant with increased duration of support. Longer duration of support was associated with poorer survival for patients with many of these risk factors. Device reimplantation, intracranial hemorrhage, and postimplant dialysis during HeartMate II support were associated with decreased survival. Survival of patients supported by the HeartMate II is affected by preoperative comorbidities and postoperative complications. Transplantation before complications is imperative in optimizing survival. Copyright © 2017 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Self-rated health as a predictor of survival among patients with advanced cancer.

PubMed

Shadbolt, Bruce; Barresi, Jane; Craft, Paul

2002-05-15

Evidence is emerging about the strong predictive relationship between self-rated health (SRH) and survival, although there is little evidence on palliative populations where an accurate prediction of survival is valuable. Thus, the relative importance of SRH in predicting the survival of ambulatory patients with advanced cancer was examined. SRH was compared to clinical assessments of performance status, as well as to quality-of-life measures. By use of a prospective cohort design, 181 patients (76% response rate) with advanced cancer were recruited into the study, resurveyed at 18 weeks, and observed to record deaths. The average age of patients was 62 years (SD = 12). The median survival time was 10 months. SRH was the strongest predictor of survival from baseline. Also, a Cox regression comparing changes in SRH over time yielded hazard ratios suggesting the relative risk (RR) of dying was greater for fair ratings at 18 weeks (approximately 3 times) compared with consistent good or better ratings; the RR was even greater (4.2 and 6.2 times) for poor ratings, especially when ratings were poor at baseline and 18 weeks (31 times). Improvement in SRH over time yielded the lowest RR. SRH is valid, reliable, and responsive to change as a predictor of survival of advanced cancer. These qualities suggest that SRH should be considered as an additional tool by oncologists to assess patients. Similarly, health managers could use SRH as an indicator of disease severity in palliative care case mix. Finally, SRH could provide a key to help us understand the human side of disease and its relationship with medicine.

Association of QRS duration and survival in dogs with dilated cardiomyopathy: a retrospective study of 266 clinical cases.

PubMed

Pedro, Brigite M; Alves, Joana V; Cripps, Peter J; Stafford Johnson, Mike J; Martin, Mike W S

2011-12-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the prognostic value of QRS duration in dogs with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) by studying its relationship with survival time. The medical records of dogs diagnosed with DCM were retrospectively searched for good quality ECG tracings. The QRS duration was measured from the ECG tracing and two different models were used: binary variable (dogs were divided into 2 groups based on a QRS duration of <60 ms or ≥60 ms) and continuous variable. The survival times were analysed by the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox's proportional hazard model. 266 dogs met the inclusion and exclusion criteria. A QRS duration ≥60 ms was associated with a reduced survival time compared to those with a QRS duration <60 ms (Hazard Ratio of 1.34, 95% CI 1.05-1.71, P = 0.02). When considered as a continuous variable the Hazard Ratio was 1.015 for each increase in QRS duration of 1 ms (95% CI 1.006-1.024, p = 0.001).Dogs with a QRS duration < 60 ms had a median survival time (IQ range) of 25 weeks (97-65) and dogs with a QRS duration ≥60 ms had a median survival time (IQ range) of 13 weeks (3-34). The measurement of QRS duration is relatively simple to perform from a surface ECG recording. A duration ≥60 ms is associated with shorter survival times in dogs with DCM, which may provide practitioners with additional prognostic information. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Transcriptomic changes in the pre-implantation uterus highlight histotrophic nutrition of the developing marsupial embryo.

PubMed

Whittington, Camilla M; O'Meally, Denis; Laird, Melanie K; Belov, Katherine; Thompson, Michael B; McAllan, Bronwyn M

2018-02-05

Early pregnancy is a critical time for successful reproduction; up to half of human pregnancies fail before the development of the definitive chorioallantoic placenta. Unlike the situation in eutherian mammals, marsupial pregnancy is characterised by a long pre-implantation period prior to the development of the short-lived placenta, making them ideal models for study of the uterine environment promoting embryonic survival pre-implantation. Here we present a transcriptomic study of pre-implantation marsupial pregnancy, and identify differentially expressed genes in the Sminthopsis crassicaudata uterus involved in metabolism and biosynthesis, transport, immunity, tissue remodelling, and uterine receptivity. Interestingly, almost one quarter of the top 50 genes that are differentially upregulated in early pregnancy are putatively involved in histotrophy, highlighting the importance of nutrient transport to the conceptus prior to the development of the placenta. This work furthers our understanding of the mechanisms underlying survival of pre-implantation embryos in the earliest live bearing ancestors of mammals.

En1 is necessary for survival of neurons in the ventral nuclei of the lateral lemniscus.

PubMed

Altieri, Stefanie C; Zhao, Tianna; Jalabi, Walid; Romito-DiGiacomo, Rita R; Maricich, Stephen M

2016-11-01

The ventral nuclei of the lateral lemniscus (VNLL) are part of the central auditory system thought to participate in temporal sound processing. While the timing and location of VNLL neurogenesis have been determined, the genetic factors that regulate VNLL neuron development are unknown. Here, we use genetic fate-mapping techniques to demonstrate that all glycinergic and glycinergic/GABAergic VNLL neurons derive from a cellular lineage that expresses the homeobox transcription factor Engrailed 1 (En1). We also show that En1 deletion does not affect migration or adoption of a neuronal cell fate but does lead to VNLL neuron death during development. Furthermore, En1 deletion blocks expression of the transcription factor FoxP1 in a subset of VNLL neurons. Together, these data identify En1 as a gene important for VNLL neuron development and survival. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Develop Neurobiol 76: 1266-1274, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

[Results of surgical treatment in ampullary and pancreatic carcinoma and its prognostic parameters after R0-resection].

PubMed

Ridwelski, K; Meyer, F; Schmidt, U; Lippert, H

2005-08-01

Resection is currently the only established reasonable therapeutic option with curative potential in pancreatic and ampullary carcinoma. The aim of the study was i) to analyze value and results of surgical therapy and ii) to detect the prognostic parameters, which determine significantly higher survival rates. Two-hundred-twenty patients with pancreatic and ampullary carcinoma (mean age, 61.4 years; 104 females/116 males) underwent surgery. Histologic investigation revealed 19 carcinomas of the papilla of Vater and 201 ductal pancreatic carcinomas. In 126 patients, stage IV a or b tumors were found, in addition, stage I (n =26), II (n = 17) and III (n = 51). Survival-rate was determined according to the method by Kaplan/Meier. Survival was compared using log-rank test. Association of several or multiple parameters with survival was tested using Cox model. Hundred-ten patients underwent tumor resection with primary curative intention (50 %): 96 resections of the pancreatic head, 2 total pancreatectomies and 12 left resections of the pancreas. R0-resection was achieved in 94 patients (42.7 %), whereas intervention was classified R1 in 10 and R2 in 6 cases. In addition, 60 palliative interventions (28 gastroenterostomies, 17 biliodigestive anastomoses, 15 anastomoses at both sites) and 50 explorative laparotomies were performed. In 42.3 % of patients, postoperative complications were found, but only 12/220 individuals died (overall letality, 5.4 %). Postoperative letality of curative pancreatic resections was 3.6 % (palliative intervention, 6.7 %; explorative laparotomy, 8.8 %). Five-year survival-rate of carcinoma of the papilla of Vater and pancreatic carcinoma was 73.3 % and 16.2 %, respectively (median survival time was 66.0 and 14.0 months, respectively). Taken together all other interventions, median survival time ranged between 4.0 (palliative intervention) to 10.0 months (R1-resection). No patient survived 5 years. Therefore, the most relevant prognostic factor was R0-resection. In addition, prognosis after successful R0-resection is determined significantly by tumor site, stage of the tumor (according to UICC), T- and N-category. Resection of pancreatic and ampullary carcinoma according to oncological criteria with tumor-free margins can be considered a treatment option with curative intention and potential. Despite relative high postoperative morbidity, only a low mortality rate was observed. The 5-year survival-rate of 16.2 % in ductal pancreatic carcinoma underlines the demand for the development of effective multimodal therapeutic concepts. Interventions with primary palliative intention or resections with microscopically or macroscopically detectable tumor residual in situ lead to no significant or only marginal prolongation of survival time. Such interventions in patients with pancreatic carcinoma are no reasonable treatment alternative. They are of value only for treatment of tumor-associated complications and problems.

Yonsei nomogram: A predictive model of new-onset chronic kidney disease after on-clamp partial nephrectomy in patients with T1 renal tumors.

PubMed

Abdel Raheem, Ali; Shin, Tae Young; Chang, Ki Don; Santok, Glen Denmer R; Alenzi, Mohamed Jayed; Yoon, Young Eun; Ham, Won Sik; Han, Woong Kyu; Choi, Young Deuk; Rha, Koon Ho

2018-06-19

To develop a predictive nomogram for chronic kidney disease-free survival probability in the long term after partial nephrectomy. A retrospective analysis was carried out of 698 patients with T1 renal tumors undergoing partial nephrectomy at a tertiary academic institution. A multivariable Cox regression analysis was carried out based on parameters proven to have an impact on postoperative renal function. Patients with incomplete data, <12 months follow up and preoperative chronic kidney disease stage III or greater were excluded. The study end-points were to identify independent risk factors for new-onset chronic kidney disease development, as well as to construct a predictive model for chronic kidney disease-free survival probability after partial nephrectomy. The median age was 52 years, median tumor size was 2.5 cm and mean warm ischemia time was 28 min. A total of 91 patients (13.1%) developed new-onset chronic kidney disease at a median follow up of 60 months. The chronic kidney disease-free survival rates at 1, 3, 5 and 10 year were 97.1%, 94.4%, 85.3% and 70.6%, respectively. On multivariable Cox regression analysis, age (1.041, P = 0.001), male sex (hazard ratio 1.653, P < 0.001), diabetes mellitus (hazard ratio 1.921, P = 0.046), tumor size (hazard ratio 1.331, P < 0.001) and preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate (hazard ratio 0.937, P < 0.001) were independent predictors for new-onset chronic kidney disease. The C-index for chronic kidney disease-free survival was 0.853 (95% confidence interval 0.815-0.895). We developed a novel nomogram for predicting the 5-year chronic kidney disease-free survival probability after on-clamp partial nephrectomy. This model might have an important role in partial nephrectomy decision-making and follow-up plan after surgery. External validation of our nomogram in a larger cohort of patients should be considered. © 2018 The Japanese Urological Association.

The incidence of non-melanoma skin cancer and post-transplant lympho-proliferative disorders in the Scottish cardiac transplant population and the provision of specialist dermatological follow-up.

PubMed

McPherson, Iain; Kirk, Alan

2017-01-01

Background Immunosuppression helps prevent acute rejection post-cardiac transplant but has been linked to malignancy development. This may be due to a reduction in T-lymphocyte function, a direct oncogenic effect or the increased impact of environmental carcinogens. There has been shown to be significant increases in non-melanoma skin cancers and post-transplant lympho-proliferative disorders, particularly in those treated with OKT3. Aim To investigate the survival and incidence of malignancy in the Scottish cardiac transplant population and whether rates of non-melanoma skin cancers justify the provision of specialist dermatological follow-up. Methods and results Retrospective case note analysis of patients transplanted (363) or followed up (2) in Scotland from 1992 to 2016. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis generated a survival curve. Patients had a 1-year survival of 82% and a median survival of 10.9 years. There were 60 (95% CI 47.5, 75.2) NMSCs and 8 (3.7, 12.4) post-transplant lympho-proliferative disorders diagnosed in the cohort (3110 person years follow-up). Fisher's exact test was employed to analyse the association between induction therapy (via OKT3 or rabbit antithymocyte globulin) and post-transplant lympho-proliferative disorder development. Patients treated with OKT3 had a 6.7 times greater risk ( P = 0.014) and a shorter experience of patients treated with rabbit antithymocyte globulin has so far shown no significantly altered risk ( P = 1.00) of developing a post-transplant lympho-proliferative disorder. Conclusion Incidences of non-melanoma skin cancers and post-transplant lympho-proliferative disorders were increased in the Scottish cardiac transplant population and there was a significant association between post-transplant lympho-proliferative disorder development and OKT3 therapy but not rabbit antithymocyte globulin therapy. These findings in Scottish patients reflect what is published in wider literature and support the provision of a dedicated post-transplant dermatology clinic.

Neonatal maternal separation up-regulates protein signalling for cell survival in rat hypothalamus.

PubMed

Irles, Claudine; Nava-Kopp, Alicia T; Morán, Julio; Zhang, Limei

2014-05-01

We have previously reported that in response to early life stress, such as maternal hyperthyroidism and maternal separation (MS), the rat hypothalamic vasopressinergic system becomes up-regulated, showing enlarged nuclear volume and cell number, with stress hyperresponsivity and high anxiety during adulthood. The detailed signaling pathways involving cell death/survival, modified by adverse experiences in this developmental window remains unknown. Here, we report the effects of MS on cellular density and time-dependent fluctuations of the expression of pro- and anti-apoptotic factors during the development of the hypothalamus. Neonatal male rats were exposed to 3 h-daily MS from postnatal days 2 to 15 (PND 2-15). Cellular density was assessed in the hypothalamus at PND 21 using methylene blue staining, and neuronal nuclear specific protein and glial fibrillary acidic protein immunostaining at PND 36. Expression of factors related to apoptosis and cell survival in the hypothalamus was examined at PND 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 20 and 43 by Western blot. Rats subjected to MS exhibited greater cell-density and increased neuronal density in all hypothalamic regions assessed. The time course of protein expression in the postnatal brain showed: (1) decreased expression of active caspase 3; (2) increased Bcl-2/Bax ratio; (3) increased activation of ERK1/2, Akt and inactivation of Bad; PND 15 and PND 20 were the most prominent time-points. These data indicate that MS can induce hypothalamic structural reorganization by promoting survival, suppressing cell death pathways, increasing cellular density which may alter the contribution of these modified regions to homeostasis.

Cost-Effectiveness of Pembrolizumab Versus Ipilimumab in Ipilimumab-Naïve Patients with Advanced Melanoma in the United States.

PubMed

Wang, Jingshu; Chmielowski, Bartosz; Pellissier, James; Xu, Ruifeng; Stevinson, Kendall; Liu, Frank Xiaoqing

2017-02-01

Recent clinical trials have shown that pembrolizumab significantly prolonged progression-free survival and overall survival compared with ipilimumab in ipilimumab-naïve patients with unresectable or metastatic melanoma. However, there has been no published evidence on the cost-effectiveness of pembrolizumab for this indication. To assess the long-term cost-effectiveness of pembrolizumab versus ipilimumab in ipilimumab-naïve patients with unresectable or meta-static melanoma from a U.S. integrated health system perspective. A partitioned-survival model was developed, which divided overall survival time into progression-free survival and postprogression survival. The model used Kaplan-Meier estimates of progression-free survival and overall survival from a recent randomized phase 3 study (KEYNOTE-006) that compared pembrolizumab and ipilimumab. Extrapolation of progression-free survival and overall survival beyond the clinical trial was based on parametric functions and literature data. The base-case time horizon was 20 years, and costs and health outcomes were discounted at a rate of 3% per year. Clinical data-including progression-free survival and overall survival data spanning a median follow-up time of 15 months, as well as quality of life and adverse event data from the ongoing KEYNOTE-006 trial-and cost data from public sources were used to populate the model. Costs included those of drug acquisition, treatment administration, adverse event management, and disease management of advanced melanoma. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) expressed as cost difference per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained was the main outcome, and a series of sensitivity analyses were performed to test the robustness of the results. In the base case, pembrolizumab was projected to increase the life expectancy of U.S. patients with advanced melanoma by 1.14 years, corresponding to a gain of 0.79 discounted QALYs over ipilimumab. The model also projected an average increase of $63,680 in discounted perpatient costs of treatment with pembrolizumab versus ipilimumab. The corresponding ICER was $81,091 per QALY ($68,712 per life-year) over a 20-year time horizon. With $100,000 per QALY as the threshold, when input parameters were varied in deterministic one-way sensitivity analyses, the use of pembrolizumab was cost-effective relative to ipilimumab in most ranges. Further, in a comprehensive probabilistic sensitivity analysis, the ICER was cost-effective in 83% of the simulations. Compared with ipilimumab, pembrolizumab had higher expected QALYs and was cost-effective for the treatment of patients with unresectable or metastatic melanoma from a U.S. integrated health system perspective. This study was supported by funding from Merck & Co., which reviewed and approved the manuscript before journal submission. Wang, Pellissier, Xu, Stevinson, and Liu are employees of, and own stock in, Merck & Co. Chmielowski has served as a paid consultant for Merck & Co. and received a consultant fee for clinical input in connection with this study. Chmielowski also reports receiving advisory board and speaker bureau fees from multiple major pharmaceutical companies. Wang led the modeling and writing of the manuscript. Chmielowski, Xu, Stevinson, and Pellissier contributed substantially to the modeling design and methodology. Liu led the data collection work and contributed substantially to writing the manuscript. In conducting the analysis and writing the manuscript, the authors followed Merck publication polices and the "cost-effectiveness analysis alongside clinical trials-good research practices and the CHEERS reporting format as recommended by the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research.

Flow cytometric and radioisotopic determinations of platelet survival time in normal cats and feline leukemia virus-infected cats

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jacobs, R.M.; Boyce, J.T.; Kociba, G.J.

This study demonstrates the potential usefulness of a flow cytometric technique to measure platelet survival time in cats utilizing autologous platelets labeled in vitro with fluorescein isothiocyanate (FITC). When compared with a 51Cr method, no significant differences in estimated survival times were found. Both the 51Cr and FITC-labeling procedures induced similar changes in platelet shape and collagen-induced aggregation. Platelets labeled with FITC had significantly greater volumes compared with those of glutaraldehyde-fixed platelets. These changes were primarily related to the platelet centrifugation and washing procedures rather than the labels themselves. This novel technique potentially has wide applicability to cell circulation timemore » studies as flow cytometry equipment becomes more readily available. Problems with the technique are discussed. In a preliminary study of the platelet survival time in feline leukemia virus (FeLV)-infected cats, two of three cats had significantly reduced survival times using both flow cytometric and radioisotopic methods. These data suggest increased platelet turnover in FeLV-infected cats.« less

Does thalidomide prolong survival in dogs with splenic haemangiosarcoma?

PubMed

Bray, J P; Orbell, G; Cave, N; Munday, J S

2018-02-01

To investigate thalidomide as an adjuvant treatment for canine haemangiosarcoma. Fifteen dogs with splenic haemangiosarcoma, initially treated by splenectomy, were included. Following recovery from surgery, all dogs received thalidomide continuously until their death. Tumour stage was established using CT scans of the chest and abdomen immediately before starting thalidomide treatment and again three months later. Cause of death was confirmed by post mortem examination. The median survival time of dogs receiving thalidomide was 172 days (95% confidence interval: 93 to 250 days). Five dogs (33% of the population receiving thalidomide) survived more than 1 year (range 458 to 660 days) after surgery. Dogs with stage 2 disease that received thalidomide also had a longer survival time than dogs with stage 3 disease (median survival time 303 versus 40 days). Of 15 dogs, 13 died from metastatic haemangiosarcoma. Treatment using thalidomide may improve survival of dogs with splenic haemangiosarcoma and should be considered a possible adjuvant therapy. © 2017 British Small Animal Veterinary Association.

Evaluation of a multidrug chemotherapy protocol with mitoxantrone based maintenance (CHOP-MA) for the treatment of canine lymphoma.

PubMed

Daters, A T; Mauldin, G E; Mauldin, G N; Brodsky, E M; Post, G S

2010-03-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of adding mitoxantrone to a cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, L-asparaginase and prednisone containing protocol. Sixty-five dogs with multicentric lymphoma were evaluated for overall remission and survival times. Remission and survival time versus stage, substage, pretreatment hypercalcaemia and pretreatment steroid administration were also evaluated. Overall median remission for dogs with multicentric lymphoma was 302 days and overall median survival was 622 days. Of the dogs with multicentric lymphoma, 23 (35%) received all scheduled mitoxantrone doses. Only median survival versus substage was found to be significant (substage a median survival was 679 days and substage b median survival was 302 days, P = 0.025). Increasing the total combined dose of doxorubicin and mitoxantrone may improve remission times when compared with historical controls, and further studies are needed to determine how best to utilize mitoxantrone in multidrug chemotherapy protocols for canine multicentric lymphoma.

Factors associated with survival of epiploic foramen entrapment colic: a multicentre, international study.

PubMed

Archer, D C; Pinchbeck, G L; Proudman, C J

2011-08-01

Epiploic foramen entrapment (EFE) has been associated with reduced post operative survival compared to other types of colic but specific factors associated with reduced long-term survival of these cases have not been evaluated in a large number of horses using survival analysis. To describe post operative survival of EFE cases and to identify factors associated with long-term survival. A prospective, multicentre, international study was conducted using clinical data and long-term follow-up information for 126 horses diagnosed with EFE during exploratory laparotomy at 15 clinics in the UK, Ireland and USA. Descriptive data were generated and survival analysis performed to identify factors associated with reduced post operative survival. For the EFE cohort that recovered following anaesthesia, survival to hospital discharge was 78.5%. Survival to 1 and 2 years post operatively was 50.6 and 34.3%, respectively. The median survival time of EFE cases undergoing surgery was 397 days. Increased packed cell volume (PCV) and increased length of small intestine (SI) resected were significantly associated with increased likelihood of mortality when multivariable analysis of pre- and intraoperative variables were analysed. When all pre-, intra- and post operative variables were analysed separately, only horses that developed post operative ileus (POI) were shown to be at increased likelihood of mortality. Increased PCV, increased length of SI resected and POI are all associated with increased likelihood of mortality of EFE cases. This emphasises the importance of early diagnosis and treatment and the need for improved strategies in the management of POI in order to reduce post operative mortality in these cases. The present study provides evidence-based information to clinicians and owners of horses undergoing surgery for EFE about long-term survival. These results are applicable to university and large private clinics over a wide geographical area. © 2011 EVJ Ltd.

Cholinesterase inhibitors do not alter the length of stay in nursing homes among patients with Alzheimer's disease: a prospective, observational study of factors affecting survival time from admission to death.

PubMed

Wattmo, Carina; Londos, Elisabet; Minthon, Lennart

2016-08-31

The survival time in nursing homes (NHs) in Alzheimer's disease (AD) might be affected by sociodemographic/clinical characteristics, rate of disease progression, and use of specific medications and community-based services. Whether different aspects of cholinesterase inhibitor (ChEI) therapy modify time spent in NHs is unclear. Therefore, we examined the relationship between these potential predictors and survival time in NHs. This prospective, multicenter study of ChEI treatment in clinical practice included 220 deceased patients clinically diagnosed with mild-to-moderate AD who were admitted to NHs during the study. Cognitive and activities of daily living (ADL) performance, ChEI dose, and amount of services used/week were evaluated every 6 months over 3 years. Dates of nursing-home placement (NHP) and death were recorded. Variables that determined survival time in NHs were analyzed using general linear models. The mean survival time in NHs was 4.06 years (men, 2.78 years; women, 4.53 years; P < 0.001). The multivariate model showed that a shorter stay in NHs was associated with the interaction term male living with a family member, use of antihypertensive/cardiac therapy or anxiolytics/sedatives/hypnotics, and worse basic ADL at NHP, but not with age or cognitive and instrumental ADL capacities. Increased community-based care did not reduce the survival time in NHs among individuals with AD. Men living with family spent significantly less time in NHs compared with the corresponding women, which suggests that the situation of female spouses of AD patients may need attention and possibly support. There was no indication that different aspects of ChEI therapy, e.g., drug type, dose, or duration, alter survival time in NHs.

Multimodal imaging of lung cancer and its microenvironment (Conference Presentation)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hariri, Lida P.; Niederst, Matthew J.; Mulvey, Hillary; Adams, David C.; Hu, Haichuan; Chico Calero, Isabel; Szabari, Margit V.; Vakoc, Benjamin J.; Hasan, Tayyaba; Bouma, Brett E.; Engelman, Jeffrey A.; Suter, Melissa J.

2016-03-01

Despite significant advances in targeted therapies for lung cancer, nearly all patients develop drug resistance within 6-12 months and prognosis remains poor. Developing drug resistance is a progressive process that involves tumor cells and their microenvironment. We hypothesize that microenvironment factors alter tumor growth and response to targeted therapy. We conducted in vitro studies in human EGFR-mutant lung carcinoma cells, and demonstrated that factors secreted from lung fibroblasts results in increased tumor cell survival during targeted therapy with EGFR inhibitor, gefitinib. We also demonstrated that increased environment stiffness results in increased tumor survival during gefitinib therapy. In order to test our hypothesis in vivo, we developed a multimodal optical imaging protocol for preclinical intravital imaging in mouse models to assess tumor and its microenvironment over time. We have successfully conducted multimodal imaging of dorsal skinfold chamber (DSC) window mice implanted with GFP-labeled human EGFR mutant lung carcinoma cells and visualized changes in tumor development and microenvironment facets over time. Multimodal imaging included structural OCT to assess tumor viability and necrosis, polarization-sensitive OCT to measure tissue birefringence for collagen/fibroblast detection, and Doppler OCT to assess tumor vasculature. Confocal imaging was also performed for high-resolution visualization of EGFR-mutant lung cancer cells labeled with GFP, and was coregistered with OCT. Our results demonstrated that stromal support and vascular growth are essential to tumor progression. Multimodal imaging is a useful tool to assess tumor and its microenvironment over time.

A Decade of Experience With Renal Transplantation in African-Americans

PubMed Central

Foster, Clarence E.; Philosophe, Benjamin; Schweitzer, Eugene J.; Colonna, John O.; Farney, Alan C.; Jarrell, Bruce; Anderson, Leslie; Bartlett, Stephen T.

2002-01-01

Objective To evaluate the strategies instituted by the authors’ center to decrease the time to transplantation and increase the rate of transplantation for African-Americans, consisting of a formal education program concerning the benefits of living organ donation that is oriented to minorities; a laparoscopic living donation program; use of hepatitis C-positive donors in documented positive recipients; and encouraging vaccination for hepatitis B, allowing the use of hepatitis B core Ab-positive donors. Summary Background Data The national shortage of suitable kidney donor organs has disproportional and adverse effects on African-Americans for several reasons. Type II diabetes mellitus and hypertension, major etiologic factors for end-stage renal disease, are more prevalent in African-Americans than in the general population. Once kidney failure has developed, African-Americans are disadvantaged for the following reasons: this patient cohort has longer median waiting times on the renal transplant list; African-Americans have higher rates of acute rejection, which affects long-term allograft survival; and once they are transplanted, the long-term graft survival rates are lower in this population than in other groups. Methods From March 1990 to November 2001 the authors’ center performed 2,167 renal transplants; 944 were in African-Americans (663 primary cadaver renal transplants and 253 primary Living donor renal transplants). The retransplants consisted of 83 cadaver transplants and 17 living donor transplants. Outcome measures of this retrospective analysis included median waiting time, graft and patient survival rates, and the rate of living donation in African-Americans and comparable non-African-Americans. Where applicable, data are compared to United Network for Organ Sharing national statistics. Statistical analysis employed appropriate SPSS applications. Results One- and 5-year patient survival rates for living donor kidneys were 97.1% and 91.3% for non-African-Americans and 96.8% and 90.4% for African-Americans. One- and 5-year graft survival rates were 95.1% and 89.1% for non-African-Americans and 93.1% and 82.9% for African-Americans. One- and 4-year patient survival rates for cadaver donor kidneys were 91.4% and 78.7% for non-African-Americans and 92.4% and 80.2% for African-Americans. One- and 5-year graft survival rates for cadaver kidneys were 84.6% and 73.7% for non-African-Americans and 84.6% and 68.9% for African-Americans. One- and 5-year graft and patient survival rates were identical for recipients of hepatitis C virus-positive and anti-HBc positive donors, with the exception of a trend to late graft loss in the African-American hepatitis C virus group due to higher rates of noncompliance, an effect that disappears with censoring of graft loss from that cause. The cadaveric renal transplant median waiting time for non-African-Americans was 391 days compared to 734 days nationally; the waiting time for African-Americans was 647 days compared to 1,335 days nationally. When looking at all patients, living and cadaver donor, the median waiting times are 220 days for non-African-Americans and 462 days for African-Americans. Conclusions Programs specifically oriented to improve volunteerism in African-Americans have led to a marked improvement in overall waiting time and in rates of living donation in this patient group. The median waiting times to cadaveric renal transplantation were also significantly shorter in the authors’ center, especially for African-American patients, by taking advantage of the higher rates of hepatitis C infection and encouraging hepatitis B vaccination. These policies can markedly improve end-stage renal disease care for African-Americans by halving the overall waiting time while still achieving comparable graft and patient survival rates. PMID:12454518

A decade of experience with renal transplantation in African-Americans.

PubMed

Foster, Clarence E; Philosophe, Benjamin; Schweitzer, Eugene J; Colonna, John O; Farney, Alan C; Jarrell, Bruce; Anderson, Leslie; Bartlett, Stephen T

2002-12-01

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the strategies instituted by the authors' center to decrease the time to transplantation and increase the rate of transplantation for African-Americans, consisting of a formal education program concerning the benefits of living organ donation that is oriented to minorities; a laparoscopic living donation program; use of hepatitis C-positive donors in documented positive recipients; and encouraging vaccination for hepatitis B, allowing the use of hepatitis B core Ab-positive donors. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA The national shortage of suitable kidney donor organs has disproportional and adverse effects on African-Americans for several reasons. Type II diabetes mellitus and hypertension, major etiologic factors for end-stage renal disease, are more prevalent in African-Americans than in the general population. Once kidney failure has developed, African-Americans are disadvantaged for the following reasons: this patient cohort has longer median waiting times on the renal transplant list; African-Americans have higher rates of acute rejection, which affects long-term allograft survival; and once they are transplanted, the long-term graft survival rates are lower in this population than in other groups. METHODS From March 1990 to November 2001 the authors' center performed 2,167 renal transplants; 944 were in African-Americans (663 primary cadaver renal transplants and 253 primary Living donor renal transplants). The retransplants consisted of 83 cadaver transplants and 17 living donor transplants. Outcome measures of this retrospective analysis included median waiting time, graft and patient survival rates, and the rate of living donation in African-Americans and comparable non-African-Americans. Where applicable, data are compared to United Network for Organ Sharing national statistics. Statistical analysis employed appropriate SPSS applications. RESULTS One- and 5-year patient survival rates for living donor kidneys were 97.1% and 91.3% for non-African-Americans and 96.8% and 90.4% for African-Americans. One- and 5-year graft survival rates were 95.1% and 89.1% for non-African-Americans and 93.1% and 82.9% for African-Americans. One- and 4-year patient survival rates for cadaver donor kidneys were 91.4% and 78.7% for non-African-Americans and 92.4% and 80.2% for African-Americans. One- and 5-year graft survival rates for cadaver kidneys were 84.6% and 73.7% for non-African-Americans and 84.6% and 68.9% for African-Americans. One- and 5-year graft and patient survival rates were identical for recipients of hepatitis C virus-positive and anti-HBc positive donors, with the exception of a trend to late graft loss in the African-American hepatitis C virus group due to higher rates of noncompliance, an effect that disappears with censoring of graft loss from that cause. The cadaveric renal transplant median waiting time for non-African-Americans was 391 days compared to 734 days nationally; the waiting time for African-Americans was 647 days compared to 1,335 days nationally. When looking at all patients, living and cadaver donor, the median waiting times are 220 days for non-African-Americans and 462 days for African-Americans. CONCLUSIONS Programs specifically oriented to improve volunteerism in African-Americans have led to a marked improvement in overall waiting time and in rates of living donation in this patient group. The median waiting times to cadaveric renal transplantation were also significantly shorter in the authors' center, especially for African-American patients, by taking advantage of the higher rates of hepatitis C infection and encouraging hepatitis B vaccination. These policies can markedly improve end-stage renal disease care for African-Americans by halving the overall waiting time while still achieving comparable graft and patient survival rates.

Survival curves of Listeria monocytogenes in chorizos modeled with artificial neural networks.

PubMed

Hajmeer, M; Basheer, I; Cliver, D O

2006-09-01

Using artificial neural networks (ANNs), a highly accurate model was developed to simulate survival curves of Listeria monocytogenes in chorizos as affected by the initial water activity (a(w0)) of the sausage formulation, temperature (T), and air inflow velocity (F) where the sausages are stored. The ANN-based survival model (R(2)=0.970) outperformed the regression-based cubic model (R(2)=0.851), and as such was used to derive other models (using regression) that allow prediction of the times needed to drop count by 1, 2, 3, and 4 logs (i.e., nD-values, n=1, 2, 3, 4). The nD-value regression models almost perfectly predicted the various times derived from a number of simulated survival curves exhibiting a wide variety of the operating conditions (R(2)=0.990-0.995). The nD-values were found to decrease with decreasing a(w0), and increasing T and F. The influence of a(w0) on nD-values seems to become more significant at some critical value of a(w0), below which the variation is negligible (0.93 for 1D-value, 0.90 for 2D-value, and <0.85 for 3D- and 4D-values). There is greater influence of storage T and F on 3D- and 4D-values than on 1D- and 2D-values.

Using statistical process control methods to trace small changes in perinatal mortality after a training program in a low-resource setting.

PubMed

Mduma, Estomih R; Ersdal, Hege; Kvaloy, Jan Terje; Svensen, Erling; Mdoe, Paschal; Perlman, Jeffrey; Kidanto, Hussein Lessio; Soreide, Eldar

2018-05-01

To trace and document smaller changes in perinatal survival over time. Prospective observational study, with retrospective analysis. Labor ward and operating theater at Haydom Lutheran Hospital in rural north-central Tanzania. All women giving birth and birth attendants. Helping Babies Breathe (HBB) simulation training on newborn care and resuscitation and some other efforts to improve perinatal outcome. Perinatal survival, including fresh stillbirths and early (24-h) newborn survival. The variable life-adjusted plot and cumulative sum chart revealed a steady improvement in survival over time, after the baseline period. There were some variations throughout the study period, and some of these could be linked to different interventions and events. To our knowledge, this is the first time statistical process control methods have been used to document changes in perinatal mortality over time in a rural Sub-Saharan hospital, showing a steady increase in survival. These methods can be utilized to continuously monitor and describe changes in patient outcomes.

Impact of collaborative care on survival time for dogs with congestive heart failure and revenue for attending primary care veterinarians.

PubMed

Lefbom, Bonnie K; Peckens, Neal K

2016-07-01

OBJECTIVE To assess the effects of in-person collaborative care by primary care veterinarians (pcDVMs) and board-certified veterinary cardiologists (BCVCs) on survival time of dogs after onset of congestive heart failure (CHF) and on associated revenue for the attending pcDVMs. DESIGN Retrospective cohort study. ANIMALS 26 small-breed dogs treated for naturally occurring CHF secondary to myxomatous mitral valve disease at a multilocation primary care veterinary hospital between 2008 and 2013. PROCEDURES Electronic medical records were reviewed to identify dogs with confirmed CHF secondary to myxomatous mitral valve disease and collect information on patient care, survival time, and pcDVM revenue. Data were compared between dogs that received collaborative care from the pcDVM and a BCVC and dogs that received care from the pcDVM alone. RESULTS Dogs that received collaborative care had a longer median survival time (254 days) than did dogs that received care from the pcDVM alone (146 days). A significant positive correlation was identified between pcDVM revenue and survival time for dogs that received collaborative care (ie, the longer the dog survived, the greater the pcDVM revenue generated from caring for that patient). CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE Findings suggested that collaborative care provided to small-breed dogs with CHF by a BCVC and pcDVM could result in survival benefits for affected dogs and increased revenue for pcDVMs, compared with care provided by a pcDVM alone.

Post-surgical treatment of thyroid carcinoma in dogs with retinoic acid 9 cis improves patient outcome

PubMed Central

Castillo, V.; Pessina, P.; Hall, P.; Blatter, M.F. Cabrera; Miceli, D.; Arias, E. Soler; Vidal, P.

2016-01-01

The objective of the present study was to compare the effects of isotretinoin 9-cis (RA9-cis) as a post-surgery treatment of thyroid carcinoma to a traditional treatment (doxorubicin) and no treatment. Owners who did not want their dogs to receive treatment were placed into the control group A (GA; n=10). The remaining dogs were randomly placed into either group B (GB; n=12) and received doxorubicin at a dose of 30 mg/m2 every three weeks, for six complete cycles or group C (GC; n=15) and treated with RA9-cis at a dose of 2 mg/kg/day for 6 months. The time of the recurrence was significantly shorter in the GA and GB compared to GC (P=0.0007; P=0.0015 respectively), while we did not detect differences between GA and GB. The hazard ratio of recurrence between GA and GB compared to GC were 7.25 and 5.60 times shorter, respectively. We did not detect any differences between the other groups. The risk ratio of recurrence was 2.0 times higher in GA compared to GC and 2.1 times higher in GB compared to GC. The type of carcinoma had an effect on time of survival with follicular carcinomas having an increased mean survival time than follicular-compact carcinomas (P<0.0001) and follicular-compact carcinomas had a longer mean survival time than compact carcinomas. The interaction among treatment and type was significant, but survival time in follicular carcinomas did not differ between treatments. In follicular-compact carcinomas the survival time of GC was greater than GB (P<0.05), but we did not detect a difference between GA and GB. In conclusion, this study shows that the use of surgery in combination with RA9-cis treatment significantly increases survival rate and decreases the time to tumor recurrence when compared to doxorubicin treated or untreated dogs. The histological type of carcinoma interacted with treatment for time to recurrence and survival time, with more undifferentiated carcinomas having a worse prognosis than differentiated carcinomas. PMID:26862515

The effect of health programs on breastfeeding and child mortality in Peninsular Malaysia.

PubMed

Anderson, K H

1984-01-01

Examining household behavior in Peninsular Malaysia, this study attempts to determine if the availability of certain government health programs significantly alters breastfeeding and if these changes in input prices significantly affect mortality rates and fertility decisions. To explain the interrelationships, an economic model of the demand for infant survival and fertility and the derived demand for breastfeeding is developed. Using household and community level data, the demand equations are then estimated and the results discussed in relation to the predictions of the model and the prospect of additional government inputs. The theoretical model predicts that, if income effects are small: a decline in the price of children (hospital distance) will increase fertility, decrease survival and reduce breastfeeding; a decline in the price of health goods inputs (hospital distance and sanitation) will reduce fertility and increase survival; and a decline in the price of contraceptives (family planning distance) will reduce fertility but increase survival and breastfeeding. The empirical results support some of the model's predictions. In communities with modern sanitation, breastfeeding was shorter on average, as predicted, but differences in mortality were not detected and fertility was actually higher. The latter effect can result from an income effect in the price decline that exceeds the cross substitution effect. Distance to a hospital was positively associated with breastfeeding length. This is expected if the effect of distance on the price of children exceeds the effect of distance on the price of survival. Hospital distance had no impact on either survival or fertility. Distance to a family planning clinic had no effect on breastfeeding or fertility but had a slight positive association with mortality. This positive relationship is expected if fertility and survival are substitutes. Parental schooling and race also are important in determining demand. As economic development proceeds and educational attainment increases, breastfeeding and fertility declined and survival increased. The Chinese, the wealthiest racial group, had lower fertility and mortality and breastfed less than Malays or Indians. The empirical results failed to support the prediction of differences in male and female survival. The results suggest some interesting implications. If breastfeeding has been declining in low income countries such as Malaysia as they develop, the culprit may be the economic development process itself, which increases the value of a woman's time and raises family income. The decline in breastfeeding does not necessarily imply a significant increase in infant mortality if good substitutes for breastfeeding exist. In addition, breastfeeding is highly substitutable with many government programs designed to reduce mortality. In designing policies which will bring about a decline in infant mortality rates, both cross substitution and joint production must be considered. Programs that can be most successful in reducing mortality will be the programs that are the least substitutable with breastfeeding.

Technique-associated outcomes in horses following large colon resection.

PubMed

Pezzanite, Lynn M; Hackett, Eileen S

2017-11-01

To compare survival and complications in horses undergoing large colon resection with either sutured end-to-end or stapled functional end-to-end anastomoses. Retrospective cohort study. Twenty-six client-owned horses with gastrointestinal disease. Retrospective data were retrieved from the medical records of 26 horses undergoing colectomy, including 14 horses with sutured end-to-end and 12 horses with stapled functional end-to-end anastomoses, between 2003 and 2016. Records were evaluated for signalment, medical and surgical treatments, and survival to hospital discharge. Long-term follow-up was obtained through owner contact. Continuous variables were compared with Mann-Whitney tests. Fisher's exact testing was used to compare survival to hospital discharge. Survival time was compared by constructing Kaplan-Meier survival curves and performing log-rank curve comparison testing. Mean age of horses undergoing colectomy was 13 years. Reason for colectomy was prophylaxis (12) or salvage (14). Mean surgical time was 169 minutes. Mean hospitalization time was 9 days, which did not differ with anastomosis type (P = .62). Nine of 12 horses undergoing stapled functional end-to-end anastomosis and 12 of 14 horses undergoing sutured end-to-end anastomosis survived to hospital discharge (P = .63). Survival time did not differ with anastomosis technique (P = .35). Short- and long-term survival outcomes are not different between sutured end-to-end or stapled functional end-to-end anastomoses in horses undergoing colectomy. © 2017 The American College of Veterinary Surgeons.

Assessment of imatinib as first-line treatment of chronic myeloid leukemia: 10-year survival results of the randomized CML study IV and impact of non-CML determinants.

PubMed

Hehlmann, R; Lauseker, M; Saußele, S; Pfirrmann, M; Krause, S; Kolb, H J; Neubauer, A; Hossfeld, D K; Nerl, C; Gratwohl, A; Baerlocher, G M; Heim, D; Brümmendorf, T H; Fabarius, A; Haferlach, C; Schlegelberger, B; Müller, M C; Jeromin, S; Proetel, U; Kohlbrenner, K; Voskanyan, A; Rinaldetti, S; Seifarth, W; Spieß, B; Balleisen, L; Goebeler, M C; Hänel, M; Ho, A; Dengler, J; Falge, C; Kanz, L; Kremers, S; Burchert, A; Kneba, M; Stegelmann, F; Köhne, C A; Lindemann, H W; Waller, C F; Pfreundschuh, M; Spiekermann, K; Berdel, W E; Müller, L; Edinger, M; Mayer, J; Beelen, D W; Bentz, M; Link, H; Hertenstein, B; Fuchs, R; Wernli, M; Schlegel, F; Schlag, R; de Wit, M; Trümper, L; Hebart, H; Hahn, M; Thomalla, J; Scheid, C; Schafhausen, P; Verbeek, W; Eckart, M J; Gassmann, W; Pezzutto, A; Schenk, M; Brossart, P; Geer, T; Bildat, S; Schäfer, E; Hochhaus, A; Hasford, J

2017-11-01

Chronic myeloid leukemia (CML)-study IV was designed to explore whether treatment with imatinib (IM) at 400 mg/day (n=400) could be optimized by doubling the dose (n=420), adding interferon (IFN) (n=430) or cytarabine (n=158) or using IM after IFN-failure (n=128). From July 2002 to March 2012, 1551 newly diagnosed patients in chronic phase were randomized into a 5-arm study. The study was powered to detect a survival difference of 5% at 5 years. After a median observation time of 9.5 years, 10-year overall survival was 82%, 10-year progression-free survival was 80% and 10-year relative survival was 92%. Survival between IM400 mg and any experimental arm was not different. In a multivariate analysis, risk group, major-route chromosomal aberrations, comorbidities, smoking and treatment center (academic vs other) influenced survival significantly, but not any form of treatment optimization. Patients reaching the molecular response milestones at 3, 6 and 12 months had a significant survival advantage. For responders, monotherapy with IM400 mg provides a close to normal life expectancy independent of the time to response. Survival is more determined by patients' and disease factors than by initial treatment selection. Although improvements are also needed for refractory disease, more life-time can currently be gained by carefully addressing non-CML determinants of survival.

[Clinical predictors correlated to outcome of war missile penetrating brain injury].

PubMed

Splavski, Bruno; Vranković, Duro; Saftić, Robert; Muzević, Dario; Kosuta, Maja; Gmajnić, Rudika

2006-09-01

The purpose of this retrospective study was to review and discuss the outcome of surgical management and other clinical predictors influencing the prognosis of war missile penetrating brain injuries. To determine clinical predictors that influence the prognosis of war missile penetrating brain injury, 126 surgically treated patients who had sustained such an injury during the two-year period of war in Croatia (1991-1993) were retrospectively analyzed. Investigated clinical features were: Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score on admission; extent of brain injury; time between injury and hospital admission; presence of intracranially retained foreign bodies or bone fragments; development of postinjury and posttraumatic complications; and Glasgow Outcome Score (GOS) at six-month follow up. The data were statistically analyzed. Sixty-seven patients survived penetrating missile brain injury, in most of them with GCS score above 8 on admission. The mean time interval to hospital admission in this group of patients was less than two hours. Twelve of 67 patients developed different complications. All patients recovered well according to GOS (GOS 5 and 4) at six-month follow up. Fifty-nine patients died. The wounded who were in moribund state on the hospital admission (n = 11), and those who died during surgery (n = 8) were excluded from the analysis. The remaining 40 patients who did not survive were analyzed. The majority of them had GCS score 3-8 on admission. They mostly sustained bilateral hemispheric lesion, and/or ventricular lesion, and developed brain edema. The mean time interval between injury and hospital admission was over two hours in this group of patients. Postoperative complication developed in 9 of 40 patients. The patients with GCS score exceeding 8 had by far more favorable outcome in comparison to those with GCS score less than 8. Considering the extent of injury, patients suffering unihemispheric brain wounds had a more favorable outcome than those with lesions of both hemispheres, and particularly those with transventricular lesions. The time between injury and hospital admission proved to be another important prognostic factor. The majority of patients admitted up to one hour of injury survived, while two thirds of those admitted between one and three hours of injury succumbed. The presence of intracranially retained foreign bodies and bone fragments, and postinjury and postoperative complications implied worse outcome in comparison with their absence. The state of consciousness on admission was the most sensitive criterion as far as the prognosis is concerned. The outcome also depended on the extent of brain damage since the wounds associated with a high mortality rate were predominantly bihemispheric. Concerning survival, the time between injury and hospital admission also appeared to be important, as well as intracranially retained foreign bodies and bone fragments, and development of complications. There was no relationship between the presence of retained fragments and development of infection, suggesting that it is not necessary to reoperate for retained fragments. We assume that early surgery is essential for treatment outcome, although it is not necessary to reoperate for retained fragments.

Conditional net survival: Relevant prognostic information for colorectal cancer survivors. A French population-based study.

PubMed

Drouillard, Antoine; Bouvier, Anne-Marie; Rollot, Fabien; Faivre, Jean; Jooste, Valérie; Lepage, Côme

2015-07-01

Traditionally, survival estimates have been reported as survival from the time of diagnosis. A patient's probability of survival changes according to time elapsed since the diagnosis and this is known as conditional survival. The aim was to estimate 5-year net conditional survival in patients with colorectal cancer in a well-defined French population at yearly intervals up to 5 years. Our study included 18,300 colorectal cancers diagnosed between 1976 and 2008 and registered in the population-based digestive cancer registry of Burgundy (France). We calculated conditional 5-year net survival, using the Pohar Perme estimator, for every additional year survived after diagnosis from 1 to 5 years. The initial 5-year net survival estimates varied between 89% for stage I and 9% for advanced stage cancer. The corresponding 5-year net survival for patients alive after 5 years was 95% and 75%. Stage II and III patients who survived 5 years had a similar probability of surviving 5 more years, respectively 87% and 84%. For survivors after the first year following diagnosis, five-year conditional net survival was similar regardless of age class and period of diagnosis. For colorectal cancer survivors, conditional net survival provides relevant and complementary prognostic information for patients and clinicians. Copyright © 2015 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.