Gene movement and genetic association with regional climate gradients in California valley oak (Quercus lobata Née) in the face of climate change.

PubMed

Sork, Victoria L; Davis, Frank W; Westfall, Robert; Flint, Alan; Ikegami, Makihiko; Wang, Hongfang; Grivet, Delphine

2010-09-01

Rapid climate change jeopardizes tree populations by shifting current climate zones. To avoid extinction, tree populations must tolerate, adapt, or migrate. Here we investigate geographic patterns of genetic variation in valley oak, Quercus lobata Née, to assess how underlying genetic structure of populations might influence this species' ability to survive climate change. First, to understand how genetic lineages shape spatial genetic patterns, we examine historical patterns of colonization. Second, we examine the correlation between multivariate nuclear genetic variation and climatic variation. Third, to illustrate how geographic genetic variation could interact with regional patterns of 21st Century climate change, we produce region-specific bioclimatic distributions of valley oak using Maximum Entropy (MAXENT) models based on downscaled historical (1971-2000) and future (2070-2100) climate grids. Future climatologies are based on a moderate-high (A2) carbon emission scenario and two different global climate models. Chloroplast markers indicate historical range-wide connectivity via colonization, especially in the north. Multivariate nuclear genotypes show a strong association with climate variation that provides opportunity for local adaptation to the conditions within their climatic envelope. Comparison of regional current and projected patterns of climate suitability indicates that valley oaks grow in distinctly different climate conditions in different parts of their range. Our models predict widely different regional outcomes from local displacement of a few kilometres to hundreds of kilometres. We conclude that the relative importance of migration, adaptation, and tolerance are likely to vary widely for populations among regions, and that late 21st Century conditions could lead to regional extinctions.

Performance analysis of the lineal model for estimating the maximum power of a HCPV module in different climate conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández, Eduardo F.; Almonacid, Florencia; Sarmah, Nabin; Mallick, Tapas; Sanchez, Iñigo; Cuadra, Juan M.; Soria-Moya, Alberto; Pérez-Higueras, Pedro

2014-09-01

A model based on easily obtained atmospheric parameters and on a simple lineal mathematical expression has been developed at the Centre of Advanced Studies in Energy and Environment in southern Spain. The model predicts the maximum power of a HCPV module as a function of direct normal irradiance, air temperature and air mass. Presently, the proposed model has only been validated in southern Spain and its performance in locations with different atmospheric conditions still remains unknown. In order to address this issue, several HCPV modules have been measured in two different locations with different climate conditions than the south of Spain: the Environment and Sustainability Institute in southern UK and the National Renewable Energy Center in northern Spain. Results show that the model has an adequate match between actual and estimated data with a RMSE lower than 3.9% at locations with different climate conditions.

Stability of the Martian climate system under the seasonal change condition of solar radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakamura, Takasumi; Tajika, Eiichi

2002-11-01

Previous studies on stability of the Martian climate system used essentially zero-dimensional energy balance climate models (EBMs) under the condition of annual mean solar radiation income. However, areal extent of polar ice caps should affect the Martian climate through the energy balance and the CO2 budget, and results under the seasonal change condition of solar radiation will be different from those under the annual mean condition. We therefore construct a one-dimensional energy balance climate model with CO2-dependent outgoing radiation, seasonal changes of solar radiation income, changes of areal extent of CO2 ice caps, and adsorption of CO2 by regolith. We have investigated behaviors of the Martian climate system and, in particular, examined the effect of the seasonal changes of solar radiation by comparing the results of previous studies under the condition of annual mean solar radiation. One of the major discrepancies between them is the condition for multiple solutions of the Martian climate system. Although the Martian climate system always has multiple solutions under the annual mean condition, under the seasonal change condition, existence of multiple solutions depends on the present amounts of CO2 in the ice caps and the regolith.

Impact of possible climate changes on river runoff under different natural conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gusev, Yeugeniy M.; Nasonova, Olga N.; Kovalev, Evgeny E.; Ayzel, Georgy V.

2018-06-01

The present study was carried out within the framework of the International Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) for 11 large river basins located in different continents of the globe under a wide variety of natural conditions. The aim of the study was to investigate possible changes in various characteristics of annual river runoff (mean values, standard deviations, frequency of extreme annual runoff) up to 2100 on the basis of application of the land surface model SWAP and meteorological projections simulated by five General Circulation Models (GCMs) according to four RCP scenarios. Analysis of the obtained results has shown that changes in climatic runoff are different (both in magnitude and sign) for the river basins located in different regions of the planet due to differences in natural (primarily climatic) conditions. The climatic elasticities of river runoff to changes in air temperature and precipitation were estimated that makes it possible, as the first approximation, to project changes in climatic values of annual runoff, using the projected changes in mean annual air temperature and annual precipitation for the river basins. It was found that for most rivers under study, the frequency of occurrence of extreme runoff values increases. This is true both for extremely high runoff (when the projected climatic runoff increases) and for extremely low values (when the projected climatic runoff decreases).

Interannual and spatial variability of maple syrup yield as related to climatic factors

PubMed Central

Houle, Daniel

2014-01-01

Sugar maple syrup production is an important economic activity for eastern Canada and the northeastern United States. Since annual variations in syrup yield have been related to climate, there are concerns about the impacts of climatic change on the industry in the upcoming decades. Although the temporal variability of syrup yield has been studied for specific sites on different time scales or for large regions, a model capable of accounting for both temporal and regional differences in yield is still lacking. In the present study, we studied the factors responsible for interregional and interannual variability in maple syrup yield over the 2001–2012 period, by combining the data from 8 Quebec regions (Canada) and 10 U.S. states. The resulting model explained 44.5% of the variability in yield. It includes the effect of climatic conditions that precede the sapflow season (variables from the previous growing season and winter), the effect of climatic conditions during the current sapflow season, and terms accounting for intercountry and temporal variability. Optimal conditions for maple syrup production appear to be spatially restricted by less favourable climate conditions occurring during the growing season in the north, and in the south, by the warmer winter and earlier spring conditions. This suggests that climate change may favor maple syrup production northwards, while southern regions are more likely to be negatively affected by adverse spring conditions. PMID:24949244

Assessing the Impact of Laurentide Ice-sheet Topography on Glacial Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ullman, D. J.; LeGrande, A. N.; Carlson, A. E.; Anslow, F. S.; Licciardi, J. M.

2014-01-01

Simulations of past climates require altered boundary conditions to account for known shifts in the Earth system. For the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and subsequent deglaciation, the existence of large Northern Hemisphere ice sheets caused profound changes in surface topography and albedo. While ice-sheet extent is fairly well known, numerous conflicting reconstructions of ice-sheet topography suggest that precision in this boundary condition is lacking. Here we use a high-resolution and oxygen-isotopeenabled fully coupled global circulation model (GCM) (GISS ModelE2-R), along with two different reconstructions of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) that provide maximum and minimum estimates of LIS elevation, to assess the range of climate variability in response to uncertainty in this boundary condition.We present this comparison at two equilibrium time slices: the LGM, when differences in ice-sheet topography are maximized, and 14 ka, when differences in maximum ice-sheet height are smaller but still exist. Overall, we find significant differences in the climate response to LIS topography, with the larger LIS resulting in enhanced Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and warmer surface air temperatures, particularly over northeastern Asia and the North Pacific. These up- and downstream effects are associated with differences in the development of planetary waves in the upper atmosphere, with the larger LIS resulting in a weaker trough over northeastern Asia that leads to the warmer temperatures and decreased albedo from snow and sea-ice cover. Differences between the 14 ka simulations are similar in spatial extent but smaller in magnitude, suggesting that climate is responding primarily to the larger difference in maximum LIS elevation in the LGM simulations. These results suggest that such uncertainty in ice-sheet boundary conditions alone may significantly impact the results of paleoclimate simulations and their ability to successfully simulate past climates, with implications for estimating climate sensitivity to greenhouse gas forcing utilizing past climate states.

Development and Performance of Alternative Electricity Sector Pathways Subject to Multiple Climate and Water Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newmark, R. L.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Miara, A.; Cohen, S.; Macknick, J.; Sun, Y.; Corsi, F.; Fekete, B. M.; Tidwell, V. C.

2017-12-01

Climate change impacts on air temperatures and water availability have the potential to alter future electricity sector investment decisions as well as the reliability and performance of the power sector. Different electricity sector configurations are more or less vulnerable to climate-induced changes. For example, once-through cooled thermal facilities are the most cost-effective and efficient technologies under cooler and wetter conditions, but can be substantially affected by and vulnerable to warmer and drier conditions. Non-thermal renewable technologies, such as PV and wind, are essentially "drought-proof" but have other integration and reliability challenges. Prior efforts have explored the impacts of climate change on electric sector development for a limited set of climate and electricity scenarios. Here, we provide a comprehensive suite of scenarios that evaluate how different electricity sector pathways could be affected by a range of climate and water resource conditions. We use four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios under five global circulation models (GCM) as climate drivers to a Water Balance Model (WBM), to provide twenty separate future climate-water conditions. These climate-water conditions influence electricity sector development from present day to 2050 as determined using the Regional Energy Deployment Systems (ReEDS) model. Four unique electricity sector pathways will be considered, including business-as-usual, carbon cap, high renewable energy technology costs, and coal reliance scenarios. The combination of climate-water and electricity sector pathway scenarios leads to 80 potential future cases resulting in different national and regional electricity infrastructure configurations. The vulnerability of these configurations in relation to climate change (including in-stream thermal pollution impacts and environmental regulations) is evaluated using the Thermoelectric Power and Thermal Pollution (TP2M) model, providing quantitative estimates of the power sector's ability to meet loads, given changes in air temperature, water temperature, and water availability.

Impact of different environmental conditions on lithium-ion batteries performance through the thermal monitoring with fiber sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nascimento, Micael; Ferreira, Marta S.; Pinto, João. L.

2017-08-01

In this work, an optical fiber sensing network has been developed to assess the impact of different environmental conditions on lithium batteries performance through the real time thermal monitoring. The battery is submitted to constant current charge and different discharge C-rates, under normal and abusive operating conditions. The results show that for the discharge C-rate of 5.77C, the LiB under cold and dry climates had 32.5% and 27.2% lower temperature variations, when compared with temperate climates, respectively. The higher temperature shift detected in the temperate climate was related to the battery better performance regarding discharge capacity and power capabilities.

Hysteresis in the Central African Rainforest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pietsch, Stephan Alexander; Elias Bednar, Johannes; Gautam, Sishir; Petritsch, Richard; Schier, Franziska; Stanzl, Patrick

2014-05-01

Past climate change caused severe disturbances of the Central African rainforest belt, with forest fragmentation and re-expansion due to drier and wetter climate conditions. Besides climate, human induced forest degradation affected biodiversity, structure and carbon storage of Congo basin rainforests. Information on climatically stable, mature rainforest, unaffected by human induced disturbances, provides means of assessing the impact of forest degradation and may serve as benchmarks of carbon carrying capacity over regions with similar site and climate conditions. BioGeoChemical (BGC) ecosystem models explicitly consider the impacts of site and climate conditions and may assess benchmark levels over regions devoid of undisturbed conditions. We will present a BGC-model validation for the Western Congolian Lowland Rainforest (WCLRF) using field data from a recently confirmed forest refuge, show model - data comparisons for disturbed und undisturbed forests under different site and climate conditions as well as for sites with repeated assessment of biodiversity and standing biomass during recovery from intensive exploitation. We will present climatic thresholds for WCLRF stability, analyse the relationship between resilience, standing C-stocks and change in climate and finally provide evidence of hysteresis.

Effects of baseline conditions on the simulated hydrologic response to projected climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koczot, Kathryn M.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.

2011-01-01

Changes in temperature and precipitation projected from five general circulation models, using one late-twentieth-century and three twenty-first-century emission scenarios, were downscaled to three different baseline conditions. Baseline conditions are periods of measured temperature and precipitation data selected to represent twentieth-century climate. The hydrologic effects of the climate projections are evaluated using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), which is a watershed hydrology simulation model. The Almanor Catchment in the North Fork of the Feather River basin, California, is used as a case study. Differences and similarities between PRMS simulations of hydrologic components (i.e., snowpack formation and melt, evapotranspiration, and streamflow) are examined, and results indicate that the selection of a specific time period used for baseline conditions has a substantial effect on some, but not all, hydrologic variables. This effect seems to be amplified in hydrologic variables, which accumulate over time, such as soil-moisture content. Results also indicate that uncertainty related to the selection of baseline conditions should be evaluated using a range of different baseline conditions. This is particularly important for studies in basins with highly variable climate, such as the Almanor Catchment.

Forest tree growth response to hydroclimate variability in the southern Appalachians

Treesearch

Katherine J. Elliott; Chelcy Ford Miniat; Neil Pederson; Stephanie H. Laseter

2015-01-01

Climate change will affect tree species growth and distribution; however, under the same climatic conditions species may differ in their response according to site conditions. We evaluated the climate-driven patterns of growth for six dominant deciduous tree species in the southern Appalachians. We categorized species into two functional groups based on their stomatal...

Climate legacies drive global soil carbon stocks in terrestrial ecosystems

PubMed Central

Delgado-Baquerizo, Manuel; Eldridge, David J.; Maestre, Fernando T.; Karunaratne, Senani B.; Trivedi, Pankaj; Reich, Peter B.; Singh, Brajesh K.

2017-01-01

Climatic conditions shift gradually over millennia, altering the rates at which carbon (C) is fixed from the atmosphere and stored in the soil. However, legacy impacts of past climates on current soil C stocks are poorly understood. We used data from more than 5000 terrestrial sites from three global and regional data sets to identify the relative importance of current and past (Last Glacial Maximum and mid-Holocene) climatic conditions in regulating soil C stocks in natural and agricultural areas. Paleoclimate always explained a greater amount of the variance in soil C stocks than current climate at regional and global scales. Our results indicate that climatic legacies help determine global soil C stocks in terrestrial ecosystems where agriculture is highly dependent on current climatic conditions. Our findings emphasize the importance of considering how climate legacies influence soil C content, allowing us to improve quantitative predictions of global C stocks under different climatic scenarios. PMID:28439540

Projecting impacts of climate change on hydrological conditions and biotic responses in a chalk valley riparian wetland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

House, A. R.; Thompson, J. R.; Acreman, M. C.

2016-03-01

Projected changes in climate are likely to substantially impact wetland hydrological conditions that will in turn have implications for wetland ecology. Assessing ecohydrological impacts of climate change requires models that can accurately simulate water levels at the fine-scale resolution to which species and communities respond. Hydrological conditions within the Lambourn Observatory at Boxford, Berkshire, UK were simulated using the physically based, distributed model MIKE SHE, calibrated to contemporary surface and groundwater levels. The site is a 10 ha lowland riparian wetland where complex geological conditions and channel management exert strong influences on the hydrological regime. Projected changes in precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, channel discharge and groundwater level were derived from the UK Climate Projections 2009 ensemble of climate models for the 2080s under different scenarios. Hydrological impacts of climate change differ through the wetland over short distances depending on the degree of groundwater/surface-water interaction. Discrete areas of groundwater upwelling are associated with an exaggerated response of water levels to climate change compared to non-upwelling areas. These are coincident with regions where a weathered chalk layer, which otherwise separates two main aquifers, is absent. Simulated water levels were linked to requirements of the MG8 plant community and Desmoulin's whorl snail (Vertigo moulinsiana) for which the site is designated. Impacts on each are shown to differ spatially and in line with hydrological impacts. Differences in water level requirements for this vegetation community and single species highlight the need for separate management strategies in distinct areas of the wetland.

On the generation of climate model ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haughton, Ned; Abramowitz, Gab; Pitman, Andy; Phipps, Steven J.

2014-10-01

Climate model ensembles are used to estimate uncertainty in future projections, typically by interpreting the ensemble distribution for a particular variable probabilistically. There are, however, different ways to produce climate model ensembles that yield different results, and therefore different probabilities for a future change in a variable. Perhaps equally importantly, there are different approaches to interpreting the ensemble distribution that lead to different conclusions. Here we use a reduced-resolution climate system model to compare three common ways to generate ensembles: initial conditions perturbation, physical parameter perturbation, and structural changes. Despite these three approaches conceptually representing very different categories of uncertainty within a modelling system, when comparing simulations to observations of surface air temperature they can be very difficult to separate. Using the twentieth century CMIP5 ensemble for comparison, we show that initial conditions ensembles, in theory representing internal variability, significantly underestimate observed variance. Structural ensembles, perhaps less surprisingly, exhibit over-dispersion in simulated variance. We argue that future climate model ensembles may need to include parameter or structural perturbation members in addition to perturbed initial conditions members to ensure that they sample uncertainty due to internal variability more completely. We note that where ensembles are over- or under-dispersive, such as for the CMIP5 ensemble, estimates of uncertainty need to be treated with care.

Changes in climate suitability for tourism at Adriatic coast since 1961

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaninovic, Ksenija

2017-04-01

The aim of the paper is the comparison of suitability of climate conditions for tourism at the eastern Adriatic coast in the period 1961-2015. For quantitative estimation of suitability of climate for different kinds of tourism, climate index for tourism (CIT) is used. CIT integrates thermal, aesthetic and physical facets of atmospheric environment and therefore is suitable for estimation of climate satisfaction that ranges from very poor to very good. The thermal component is estimated using the physiologically equivalent temperature (PET). The index is applied for: beach tourism, cycling, hiking, cultural tourism, golf, football, motor boating and sailing. Changes in climate potential of tourism are estimated by differences of distribution of climate index for tourism. For the warmest part of the day, the results indicate the extension of the summer tourist season for beach tourism at the end of the analyzed period. On the other hand, for other tourist activities in the same period the results indicate more pronounced bimodal distribution of CIT during year, resulting with the seasonality shift of ideal conditions for most activities to spring and autumn. Besides, in the morning the improvement of favourable climate conditions for all types of tourism at the end of the period.

Spatial and temporal variation in climate change: A bird’s eye view

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fontaine, Joseph J.; Decker, Karie L.; Skagen, Susan K.; van Riper, Charles

2009-01-01

Recent changes in global climate have dramatically altered worldwide temperatures and the corresponding timing of seasonal climate conditions. Recognizing the degree to which species respond to changing climates is therefore an area of increasing conservation concern as species that are unable to respond face increased risk of extinction. Here we examine spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the rate of climate change across western North America and discuss the potential for conditions to arise that may limit the ability of western migratory birds to adapt to changing climates. Based on 52 years of climate data, we show that changes in temperature and precipitation differ significantly between spring migration habitats in the desert southwest and breeding habitats throughout western North America. Such differences may ultimately increase costs to individual birds and thereby threaten the long-term population viability of many species.

Climate and prevalence of atopic eczema in 6- to 7-year-old school children in Spain. ISAAC PhASE III

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suárez-Varela, María Morales; García-Marcos Alvarez, Luís; Kogan, Michael D.; González, Agustín Llopis; Gimeno, Antonio Martínez; Ontoso, Inés Aguinaga; Díaz, Carlos González; Pena, Alberto Arnedo; Aurrecoechea, Begoña Domínguez; Monge, Rosa María Busquets; Quiros, Alfredo Blanco; Garrido, José Batlles; Canflanca, Iñaqui Miner; Varela, Ángel López-Silvarrey

2008-11-01

Atopic eczema (AE) is a chronic skin disease. Recent reports indicate that the worldwide prevalence of AE is increasing and that various environmental factors are implicated in its aetiology. Climatic conditions have been related with AE prevalence, and Spain has varying climatic conditions. The aim of this study is to document the possible climatic influence on the prevalence of AE in schoolchildren aged 6-7 years in three different climatic regions in Spain. We conducted a cross-sectional population-based survey of 28,394 schoolchildren aged 6-7 years from 10 Spanish centres in three different climatic regions. The mean participation rate was 76.5%. AE prevalence was assessed using the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) questionnaire and the Spanish Academy of Dermatology criteria used in Spain to diagnose AE. The data, including annual temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and the annual number of sunny hours per climatic region, were obtained from the Spanish National Institute of Meteorology. Different AE prevalences were found in all three climatic regions studied: Atlantic, 32.9; Mediterranean 28.3; and Continental 31.2 per 100 children studied ( p < 0.005). AE was positively associated with precipitation and humidity, and was negatively associated with temperature and the number of sunny hours. The results show that AE is significantly dependent on meteorological conditions.

Impacts of boundary condition changes on regional climate projections over West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jee Hee; Kim, Yeonjoo; Wang, Guiling

2017-06-01

Future projections using regional climate models (RCMs) are driven with boundary conditions (BCs) typically derived from global climate models. Understanding the impact of the various BCs on regional climate projections is critical for characterizing their robustness and uncertainties. In this study, the International Center for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model Version 4 (RegCM4) is used to investigate the impact of different aspects of boundary conditions, including lateral BCs and sea surface temperature (SST), on projected future changes of regional climate in West Africa, and BCs from the coupled European Community-Hamburg Atmospheric Model 5/Max Planck Institute Ocean Model are used as an example. Historical, future, and several sensitivity experiments are conducted with various combinations of BCs and CO2 concentration, and differences among the experiments are compared to identify the most important drivers for RCMs. When driven by changes in all factors, the RegCM4-produced future climate changes include significantly drier conditions in Sahel and wetter conditions along the Guinean coast. Changes in CO2 concentration within the RCM domain alone or changes in wind vectors at the domain boundaries alone have minor impact on projected future climate changes. Changes in the atmospheric humidity alone at the domain boundaries lead to a wetter Sahel due to the northward migration of rain belts during summer. This impact, although significant, is offset and dominated by changes of other BC factors (primarily temperature) that cause a drying signal. Future changes of atmospheric temperature at the domain boundaries combined with SST changes over oceans are sufficient to cause a future climate that closely resembles the projection that accounts for all factors combined. Therefore, climate variability and changes simulated by RCMs depend primarily on the variability and change of temperature aspects of the RCM BCs. Moreover, it is found that the response of the RCM climate to different climate change factors is roughly linear in that the projected changes driven by combined factors are close to the sum of projected changes due to each individual factor alone at least for long-term averages. Findings from this study are important for understanding the source(s) of uncertainties in regional climate projections and for designing innovative approaches to climate downscaling and impact assessment.

Separating the role of biotic interactions and climate in determining adaptive response of plants to climate change.

PubMed

Tomiolo, Sara; Van der Putten, Wim H; Tielbörger, Katja

2015-05-01

Altered rainfall regimes will greatly affect the response of plant species to climate change. However, little is known about how direct effects of changing precipitation on plant performance may depend on other abiotic factors and biotic interactions. We used reciprocal transplants between climatically very different sites with simultaneous manipulation of soil, plant population origin, and neighbor conditions to evaluate local adaptation and possible adaptive response of four Eastern Mediterranean annual plant species to climate change. The effect of site on plant performance was negligible, but soil origin had a strong effect on fecundity, most likely due to differential water retaining ability. Competition by neighbors strongly reduced fitness. We separated the effects of the abiotic and biotic soil properties on plant performance by repeating the field experiment in a greenhouse under homogenous environmental conditions and including a soil biota manipulation treatment. As in the field, plant performance differed among soil origins and neighbor treatments. Moreover, we found plant species-specific responses to soil biota that may be best explained by the differential sensitivity to negative and positive soil biota effects. Overall, under the conditions of our experiment with two contrasting sites, biotic interactions had a strong effect on plant fitness that interacted with and eventually overrode climate. Because climate and biotic interactions covary, reciprocal transplants and climate gradient studies should consider soil biotic interactions and abiotic conditions when evaluating climate change effects on plant performance.

Lubricants for Hydraulic Structures

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-08-01

significant difference is the fact that paraffinics provide a higher pour point. Although this is of little con- cern in warm climates , it could be...significant in very cold climates . 194. Lubricating oils may be either paraffinic or naphthenic depending on intended use, but there are no restrictions...geographical and climatic conditions, freedom to adjust to local conditions is recommended. 59 Table 1 Common Additives for Industrial Oils Rust

Examining the response of larch needle carbohydrates to climate using compound-specific δ13C and concentration analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rinne, Katja T.; Saurer, Matthias; Kirdyanov, Alexander V.; Bryukhanova, Marina V.; Prokushkin, Anatoly S.; Churakova Sidorova, Olga V.; Siegwolf, Rolf T. W.

2016-04-01

Little is known about the dynamics of concentrations and carbon isotope ratios of individual carbohydrates in leaves in response to climatic and physiological factors. Improved knowledge of the isotopic ratio in sugars will enhance our understanding of the tree ring isotope ratio and will help to decipher environmental conditions in retrospect more reliably. Carbohydrate samples from larch (Larix gmelinii) needles of two sites in the continuous permafrost zone of Siberia with differing growth conditions were analysed with the Compound-Specific Isotope Analysis (CSIA). We compared concentrations and carbon isotope values (δ13C) of sucrose, fructose, glucose and pinitol combined with phenological data. The results for the variability of the needle carbohydrates show high dynamics with distinct seasonal characteristics between and within the studied years with a clear link to the climatic conditions, particularly vapour pressure deficit. Compound-specific differences in δ13C values as a response to climate were detected. The δ13C of pinitol, which contributes up to 50% of total soluble carbohydrates, was almost invariant during the whole growing season. Our study provides the first in-depth characterization of compound-specific needle carbohydrate isotope variability, identifies involved mechanisms and shows the potential of such results for linking tree physiological responses to different climatic conditions.

Productivity of Rice Grown on Arsenic Contaminated Soil under a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, T.; Plaganas, M.; Muehe, E. M.; Fendorf, S. E.

2016-12-01

Rice is the staple food for more than 50% of the global population. In South and Southeast Asia, native soil arsenic coupled with arsenic-laden irrigation water result in paddy soils having arsenic levels that decrease the quality and productivity of rice and thus compromise food security worldwide. However, it remains unknown how climate change will affect the accumulation of arsenic in rice plants, specifically grain, grown in arsenic-bearing paddy soils. We hypothesize that the bioavailability of arsenic in the paddy soil will increase with climate change leading to an even sharper decrease of rice productivity and quality than presently estimated. In order to shed light on this question, we performed greenhouse studies to simulate today's climate condition in Asian paddy soils and compare it to the conditions projected for the year 2100. We investigated climate conditions estimated in the 5th assessment report of the IPCC1, indicating up to a 5°C increase in temperature and doubled atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Under these current and future climate conditions, we examined rice physiology including plant height and biomass, leaf chlorophyll content, grain number and weight as well as contents of accumulated arsenic, and its species in the different rice tissues. We further correlate different geochemical parameters of the soil, including arsenic and other relevant metal dynamics in the soil, to plant response. In sum, our analyses will allow us to better predict the productivity of rice and its grain quality in a future climate condition, and may help to take precautions to avoid a global food crisis, particularly for South and Southeast Asia where rice is a daily staple. 1IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2013, The Physical Science Basis.

Climate Change Research - What Do We Need Really?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rama Chandra Prasad, P.

2015-01-01

This research note focuses on the current climate change research scenario and discusses primarily what is required in the present global climate change conditions. Most of the climate change research and models predict adverse future conditions that have to be faced by humanity, with less emphasis on mitigation measures. Moreover, research ends as reports on the shelves of scientists and researchers and as publications in journals. At this juncture the major focus should be on research that helps in reducing the impact rather than on analysing future scenarios of climate change using different models. The article raises several questions and suggestions regards climate change research and lays emphasis on what we really need from climate change researchers.

Climate during the Roman and early-medieval periods in North-western Europe: a review of climate reconstructions from terrestrial archives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reichelmann, Dana F. C.; Gouw-Bouman, Marjolein T. I. J.; Hoek, Wim Z.; van Lanen, Rowin J.; Stouthamer, Esther; Jansma, Esther

2016-04-01

High-resolution palaeoclimate reconstructions are essential to identify possible influences of climate variability on landscape evolution and landscape-related cultural changes (e.g., shifting settlement patterns and long-distance trade relations). North-western Europe is an ideal research area for comparison between climate variability and cultural transitions given its geomorphological diversity and the significant cultural changes that took place in this region during the last two millennia (e.g., the decline of the Roman Empire and the transition to medieval kingdoms). Compared to more global climate records, such as ice cores and marine sediments, terrestrial climate proxies have the advantage of representing a relatively short response time to regional climatic change. Furthermore for this region large quantity of climate reconstructions is available covering the last millennium, whereas for the first millennium AD only few high resolution climate reconstructions are available. We compiled climate reconstructions for sites in North-western Europe from the literature and its underlying data. All these reconstructions cover the time period of AD 1 to 1000. We only selected data with an annual to decadal resolution and a minimum resolution of 50 years. This resulted in 18 climate reconstructions from different archives such as chironomids (1), pollen (4), Sphagnum cellulose (1), stalagmites (6), testate amoebae (4), and tree-rings (2). The compilation of the different temperature reconstructions shows similar trends in most of the records. Colder conditions since AD 300 for a period of approximately 400 years and warmer conditions after AD 700 become apparent. A contradicting signal is found before AD 300 with warmer conditions indicated by most of the records but not all. This is likely the result of the use of different proxies, reflecting temperatures linked to different seasons. The compilation of the different precipitation reconstructions also show similar trends. Dry periods are indicated by all records around AD 400 and 600, although precipitation records do not show the same spatial continuity as the temperature proxies. This study shows that clear climate changes occurred over North-western Europe in the period between AD 300 and 700, which are partly reflected by changes in seasonality.

Regional and global implications of land-use change and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stauffer, Heidi Lada

This dissertation has two main components. The first is a longterm regional climate modeling study of the effects of different types of land use changes on Southeast Asian climate under present-day climate conditions and under future projected climate conditions at the end of the 21st Century. The focus of the second component is to estimate daily heat index for projected extreme temperatures at the end of the 21st Century and projecting the number of people affected by those heat conditions. The first component of this study uses a high-resolution regional climate model centered on the Southeast Asian region to compare two land use change scenarios under modern climate and future projected climate conditions. Results from experiments under modern climate conditions indicate that changes in regional climate including widespread surface cooling, increased precipitation, and increased latent heat flux are primarily due to deforestation. As expected from other studies, future climate projections indicate increasing surface temperature and total precipitation. However, the combination of increasing global temperatures and irrigation appears to increase latent heat flux and evapotranspiration, leading to decrease in the surface temperature nearly the same magnitude, increasing both specific humidity and relative humidity. The increasing relative humidity causes low clouds to form, and the net surface solar absorbed flux decreases in response, which further cools the surface. These results imply that deforestation and irrigation have differing complex regional climate responses and the presence of irrigation could mask future surface temperature increases, at least in the short term and reinforce the importance of incorporating land use changes, particularly irrigation, into any studies of future regional climate. The second component of this study uses global daily maximum heat indices derived from future climate future climate simulations for 2098 and projected population density to estimate how many people will be affected by rising temperatures. Our results show that over 4 billion people annually will experience prolonged periods of Danger heat index conditions, under which heat exhaustion and heat stroke are likely. In addition, a majority of people subjected to prolonged high heat stress conditions are located in tropical developing nations, such as those in south and Southeast Asia, where population density is high and large numbers of people work outdoors. Many countries in these regions lack the resources to mitigate the impact of heat stress on the large numbers of people likely to experience heat-related illness and death.

Assessing effects of variation in global climate data sets on spatial predictions from climate envelope models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Romañach, Stephanie; Watling, James I.; Fletcher, Robert J.; Speroterra, Carolina; Bucklin, David N.; Brandt, Laura A.; Pearlstine, Leonard G.; Escribano, Yesenia; Mazzotti, Frank J.

2014-01-01

Climate change poses new challenges for natural resource managers. Predictive modeling of species–environment relationships using climate envelope models can enhance our understanding of climate change effects on biodiversity, assist in assessment of invasion risk by exotic organisms, and inform life-history understanding of individual species. While increasing interest has focused on the role of uncertainty in future conditions on model predictions, models also may be sensitive to the initial conditions on which they are trained. Although climate envelope models are usually trained using data on contemporary climate, we lack systematic comparisons of model performance and predictions across alternative climate data sets available for model training. Here, we seek to fill that gap by comparing variability in predictions between two contemporary climate data sets to variability in spatial predictions among three alternative projections of future climate. Overall, correlations between monthly temperature and precipitation variables were very high for both contemporary and future data. Model performance varied across algorithms, but not between two alternative contemporary climate data sets. Spatial predictions varied more among alternative general-circulation models describing future climate conditions than between contemporary climate data sets. However, we did find that climate envelope models with low Cohen's kappa scores made more discrepant spatial predictions between climate data sets for the contemporary period than did models with high Cohen's kappa scores. We suggest conservation planners evaluate multiple performance metrics and be aware of the importance of differences in initial conditions for spatial predictions from climate envelope models.

Climate impacts on palm oil yields in the Nigerian Niger Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okoro, Stanley U.; Schickhoff, Udo; Boehner, Juergen; Schneider, Uwe A.; Huth, Neil

2016-04-01

Palm oil production has increased in recent decades and is estimated to increase further. The optimal role of palm oil production, however, is controversial because of resource conflicts with alternative land uses. Local conditions and climate change affect resource competition and the desirability of palm oil production. Based on this, crop yield simulations using different climate model output under different climate scenarios could be important tool in addressing the problem of uncertainty quantification among different climate model outputs. Previous studies on this region have focused mostly on single experimental fields, not considering variations in Agro-Ecological Zones, climatic conditions, varieties and management practices and, in most cases not extending to various IPCC climate scenarios and were mostly based on single climate model output. Furthermore, the uncertainty quantification of the climate- impact model has rarely been investigated on this region. To this end we use the biophysical simulation model APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems Simulator) to simulate the regional climate impact on oil palm yield over the Nigerian Niger Delta. We also examine whether the use of crop yield model output ensemble reduces the uncertainty rather than the use of climate model output ensemble. The results could serve as a baseline for policy makers in this region in understanding the interaction between potentials of energy crop production of the region as well as its food security and other negative feedbacks that could be associated with bioenergy from oil palm. Keywords: Climate Change, Climate impacts, Land use and Crop yields.

Eco-hydrologic model cascades: Simulating land use and climate change impacts on hydrology, hydraulics and habitats for fish and macroinvertebrates.

PubMed

Guse, Björn; Kail, Jochem; Radinger, Johannes; Schröder, Maria; Kiesel, Jens; Hering, Daniel; Wolter, Christian; Fohrer, Nicola

2015-11-15

Climate and land use changes affect the hydro- and biosphere at different spatial scales. These changes alter hydrological processes at the catchment scale, which impact hydrodynamics and habitat conditions for biota at the river reach scale. In order to investigate the impact of large-scale changes on biota, a cascade of models at different scales is required. Using scenario simulations, the impact of climate and land use change can be compared along the model cascade. Such a cascade of consecutively coupled models was applied in this study. Discharge and water quality are predicted with a hydrological model at the catchment scale. The hydraulic flow conditions are predicted by hydrodynamic models. The habitat suitability under these hydraulic and water quality conditions is assessed based on habitat models for fish and macroinvertebrates. This modelling cascade was applied to predict and compare the impacts of climate- and land use changes at different scales to finally assess their effects on fish and macroinvertebrates. Model simulations revealed that magnitude and direction of change differed along the modelling cascade. Whilst the hydrological model predicted a relevant decrease of discharge due to climate change, the hydraulic conditions changed less. Generally, the habitat suitability for fish decreased but this was strongly species-specific and suitability even increased for some species. In contrast to climate change, the effect of land use change on discharge was negligible. However, land use change had a stronger impact on the modelled nitrate concentrations affecting the abundances of macroinvertebrates. The scenario simulations for the two organism groups illustrated that direction and intensity of changes in habitat suitability are highly species-dependent. Thus, a joined model analysis of different organism groups combined with the results of hydrological and hydrodynamic models is recommended to assess the impact of climate and land use changes on river ecosystems. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Complex life cycles and the responses of insects to climate change.

PubMed

Kingsolver, Joel G; Woods, H Arthur; Buckley, Lauren B; Potter, Kristen A; MacLean, Heidi J; Higgins, Jessica K

2011-11-01

Many organisms have complex life cycles with distinct life stages that experience different environmental conditions. How does the complexity of life cycles affect the ecological and evolutionary responses of organisms to climate change? We address this question by exploring several recent case studies and synthetic analyses of insects. First, different life stages may inhabit different microhabitats, and may differ in their thermal sensitivities and other traits that are important for responses to climate. For example, the life stages of Manduca experience different patterns of thermal and hydric variability, and differ in tolerance to high temperatures. Second, life stages may differ in their mechanisms for adaptation to local climatic conditions. For example, in Colias, larvae in different geographic populations and species adapt to local climate via differences in optimal and maximal temperatures for feeding and growth, whereas adults adapt via differences in melanin of the wings and in other morphological traits. Third, we extend a recent analysis of the temperature-dependence of insect population growth to demonstrate how changes in temperature can differently impact juvenile survival and adult reproduction. In both temperate and tropical regions, high rates of adult reproduction in a given environment may not be realized if occasional, high temperatures prevent survival to maturity. This suggests that considering the differing responses of multiple life stages is essential to understand the ecological and evolutionary consequences of climate change. © The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Integrative and Comparative Biology. All rights reserved.

Nonlinear effect of climate on plague during the third pandemic in China

PubMed Central

Xu, Lei; Liu, Qiyong; Stige, Leif Chr.; Ben Ari, Tamara; Fang, Xiye; Chan, Kung-Sik; Wang, Shuchun; Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Zhang, Zhibin

2011-01-01

Over the years, plague has caused a large number of deaths worldwide and subsequently changed history, not the least during the period of the Black Death. Of the three plague pandemics, the third is believed to have originated in China. Using the spatial and temporal human plague records in China from 1850 to 1964, we investigated the association of human plague intensity (plague cases per year) with proxy data on climate condition (specifically an index for dryness/wetness). Our modeling analysis demonstrates that the responses of plague intensity to dry/wet conditions were different in northern and southern China. In northern China, plague intensity generally increased when wetness increased, for both the current and the previous year, except for low intensity during extremely wet conditions in the current year (reflecting a dome-shaped response to current-year dryness/wetness). In southern China, plague intensity generally decreased when wetness increased, except for high intensity during extremely wet conditions of the current year. These opposite effects are likely related to the different climates and rodent communities in the two parts of China: In northern China (arid climate), rodents are expected to respond positively to high precipitation, whereas in southern China (humid climate), high precipitation is likely to have a negative effect. Our results suggest that associations between human plague intensity and precipitation are nonlinear: positive in dry conditions, but negative in wet conditions. PMID:21646523

Nonlinear effect of climate on plague during the third pandemic in China.

PubMed

Xu, Lei; Liu, Qiyong; Stige, Leif Chr; Ben Ari, Tamara; Fang, Xiye; Chan, Kung-Sik; Wang, Shuchun; Stenseth, Nils Chr; Zhang, Zhibin

2011-06-21

Over the years, plague has caused a large number of deaths worldwide and subsequently changed history, not the least during the period of the Black Death. Of the three plague pandemics, the third is believed to have originated in China. Using the spatial and temporal human plague records in China from 1850 to 1964, we investigated the association of human plague intensity (plague cases per year) with proxy data on climate condition (specifically an index for dryness/wetness). Our modeling analysis demonstrates that the responses of plague intensity to dry/wet conditions were different in northern and southern China. In northern China, plague intensity generally increased when wetness increased, for both the current and the previous year, except for low intensity during extremely wet conditions in the current year (reflecting a dome-shaped response to current-year dryness/wetness). In southern China, plague intensity generally decreased when wetness increased, except for high intensity during extremely wet conditions of the current year. These opposite effects are likely related to the different climates and rodent communities in the two parts of China: In northern China (arid climate), rodents are expected to respond positively to high precipitation, whereas in southern China (humid climate), high precipitation is likely to have a negative effect. Our results suggest that associations between human plague intensity and precipitation are nonlinear: positive in dry conditions, but negative in wet conditions.

Using Probabilistic Methods in Water Scarcity Assessments: A First Step Towards a Water Scarcity Risk Assessment Framework

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Veldkamp, Ted; Wada, Yoshihide; Aerts, Jeroen; Ward, Phillip

2016-01-01

Water scarcity -driven by climate change, climate variability, and socioeconomic developments- is recognized as one of the most important global risks, both in terms of likelihood and impact. Whilst a wide range of studies have assessed the role of long term climate change and socioeconomic trends on global water scarcity, the impact of variability is less well understood. Moreover, the interactions between different forcing mechanisms, and their combined effect on changes in water scarcity conditions, are often neglected. Therefore, we provide a first step towards a framework for global water scarcity risk assessments, applying probabilistic methods to estimate water scarcity risks for different return periods under current and future conditions while using multiple climate and socioeconomic scenarios.

Avoided economic impacts of energy demand changes by 1.5 and 2 °C climate stabilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Chan; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Takakura, Jun’ya; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Hijioka, Yasuaki

2018-04-01

Energy demand associated with space heating and cooling is expected to be affected by climate change. There are several global projections of space heating and cooling use that take into consideration climate change, but a comprehensive uncertainty of socioeconomic and climate conditions, including a 1.5 °C global mean temperature change, has never been assessed. This paper shows the economic impact of changes in energy demand for space heating and cooling under multiple socioeconomic and climatic conditions. We use three shared socioeconomic pathways as socioeconomic conditions. For climate conditions, we use two representative concentration pathways that correspond to 4.0 °C and 2.0 °C scenarios, and a 1.5 °C scenario driven from the 2.0 °C scenario with assumption in conjunction with five general circulation models. We find that the economic impacts of climate change are largely affected by socioeconomic assumptions, and global GDP change rates range from +0.21% to ‑2.01% in 2100 under the 4.0 °C scenario, depending on the socioeconomic condition. Sensitivity analysis that differentiates the thresholds of heating and cooling degree days clarifies that the threshold is a strong factor that generates these differences. Meanwhile, the impact of the 1.5 °C is small regardless of socioeconomic assumptions (‑0.02% to ‑0.06%). The economic loss caused by differences in socioeconomic assumption under the 1.5 °C scenario is much smaller than that under the 2 °C scenario, which implies that stringent climate mitigation can work as a risk hedge to socioeconomic development diversity.

Climatic origins predict variation in photoprotective leaf pigments in response to drought and low temperatures in live oaks (Quercus series Virentes).

PubMed

Ramírez-Valiente, Jose A; Koehler, Kari; Cavender-Bares, Jeannine

2015-05-01

Climate is a major selective force in nature. Exploring patterns of inter- and intraspecific genetic variation in functional traits may explain how species have evolved and may continue evolving under future climate change. Photoprotective pigments play an important role in short-term responses to climate stress in plants but knowledge of their long-term role in adaptive processes is lacking. In this study, our goal was to determine how photoprotective mechanisms, morphological traits and their plasticity have evolved in live oaks (Quercus series Virentes) in response to different climatic conditions. For this purpose, seedlings originating from 11 populations from four live oak species (Quercus virginiana, Q. geminata, Q. fusiformis and Q. oleoides) were grown under contrasting common environmental conditions of temperature (tropical vs temperate) and water availability (droughted vs well-watered). Xanthophyll cycle pigments, anthocyanin accumulation, chlorophyll fluorescence parameters and leaf anatomical traits were measured. Seedlings originating from more mesic source populations of Q. oleoides and Q. fusiformis increased the xanthophyll de-epoxidation state under water-limiting conditions and showed higher phenotypic plasticity for this trait, suggesting adaptation to local climate. Likewise, seedlings originating from warmer climates had higher anthocyanin concentration in leaves under cold winter conditions but not higher de-epoxidation state. Overall, our findings suggest that (i) climate has been a key factor in shaping species and population differences in stress tolerance for live oaks, (ii) anthocyanins are used under cold stress in species with limited freezing tolerance and (iii) xanthophyll cycle pigments are used when photoprotection under drought conditions is needed. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Assessment of Erysiphe necator ascospore release models for use in the Mediterranean climate of western Oregon

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Predictive models have been developed in several major grape growing regions to correlate environmental conditions to Erysiphe necator ascospore release; however, these models may not accurately predict ascospore release in other viticulture regions with differing climatic conditions. To assess asco...

Patterns and Drivers of Tree Mortality in Iberian Forests: Climatic Effects Are Modified by Competition

PubMed Central

Ruiz-Benito, Paloma; Lines, Emily R.; Gómez-Aparicio, Lorena; Zavala, Miguel A.; Coomes, David A.

2013-01-01

Tree mortality is a key process underlying forest dynamics and community assembly. Understanding how tree mortality is driven by simultaneous drivers is needed to evaluate potential effects of climate change on forest composition. Using repeat-measure information from c. 400,000 trees from the Spanish Forest Inventory, we quantified the relative importance of tree size, competition, climate and edaphic conditions on tree mortality of 11 species, and explored the combined effect of climate and competition. Tree mortality was affected by all of these multiple drivers, especially tree size and asymmetric competition, and strong interactions between climate and competition were found. All species showed L-shaped mortality patterns (i.e. showed decreasing mortality with tree size), but pines were more sensitive to asymmetric competition than broadleaved species. Among climatic variables, the negative effect of temperature on tree mortality was much larger than the effect of precipitation. Moreover, the effect of climate (mean annual temperature and annual precipitation) on tree mortality was aggravated at high competition levels for all species, but especially for broadleaved species. The significant interaction between climate and competition on tree mortality indicated that global change in Mediterranean regions, causing hotter and drier conditions and denser stands, could lead to profound effects on forest structure and composition. Therefore, to evaluate the potential effects of climatic change on tree mortality, forest structure must be considered, since two systems of similar composition but different structure could radically differ in their response to climatic conditions. PMID:23451096

Analysis of Solar Chimneys in Different Climate Zones - Case of Social Housing in Ecuador

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Godoy-Vaca, Luis; Almaguer, Manuel; Martínez-Gómez, Javier; Lobato, Andrea; Palme, Massimo

2017-10-01

The aim of this research is to simulate the performance of a solar chimney located in different macro-zones in Ecuador. The proposed solar chimney model was simulated using a python script in order to predict the temperature distribution and the mass flow over time. The results obtained were firstly compared with experimental data for dry-warm climate. Then, the model was evaluated and tested in real weather conditions: dry-warm, moist-warm and rainy-cold. In addition, the assumed chimney dimensions were chosen according to the literature for the studied conditions. In spite of evaluating the best nightly ventilation, different chimney wall materials were tested: solid brick, common brick and reinforced concrete. The results showed that concrete in a dry-warm climate, a metallic layer on the gap with solid brick in a moist-warm climate and reinforced concrete in a rainy cold climate used for the absorbent wall improve the thermal inertia of the social housing.

What Can Plasticity Contribute to Insect Responses to Climate Change?

PubMed

Sgrò, Carla M; Terblanche, John S; Hoffmann, Ary A

2016-01-01

Plastic responses figure prominently in discussions on insect adaptation to climate change. Here we review the different types of plastic responses and whether they contribute much to adaptation. Under climate change, plastic responses involving diapause are often critical for population persistence, but key diapause responses under dry and hot conditions remain poorly understood. Climate variability can impose large fitness costs on insects showing diapause and other life cycle responses, threatening population persistence. In response to stressful climatic conditions, insects also undergo ontogenetic changes including hardening and acclimation. Environmental conditions experienced across developmental stages or by prior generations can influence hardening and acclimation, although evidence for the latter remains weak. Costs and constraints influence patterns of plasticity across insect clades, but they are poorly understood within field contexts. Plastic responses and their evolution should be considered when predicting vulnerability to climate change-but meaningful empirical data lag behind theory.

Comparative Climates of the Trappist-1 Planetary System: Results from a Simple Climate-vegetation Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alberti, Tommaso; Carbone, Vincenzo; Lepreti, Fabio

The recent discovery of the planetary system hosted by the ultracool dwarf star TRAPPIST-1 could open new paths for investigations of the planetary climates of Earth-sized exoplanets, their atmospheres, and their possible habitability. In this paper, we use a simple climate-vegetation energy-balance model to study the climate of the seven TRAPPIST-1 planets and the climate dependence on various factors: the global albedo, the fraction of vegetation that could cover their surfaces, and the different greenhouse conditions. The model allows us to investigate whether liquid water could be maintained on the planetary surfaces (i.e., by defining a “surface water zone (SWZ)”)more » in different planetary conditions, with or without the presence of a greenhouse effect. It is shown that planet TRAPPIST-1d seems to be the most stable from an Earth-like perspective, since it resides in the SWZ for a wide range of reasonable values of the model parameters. Moreover, according to the model, outer planets (f, g, and h) cannot host liquid water on their surfaces, even with Earth-like conditions, entering a snowball state. Although very simple, the model allows us to extract the main features of the TRAPPIST-1 planetary climates.« less

Germination behaviour of annual plants under changing climatic conditions: separating local and regional environmental effects.

PubMed

Petrů, Martina; Tielbörger, Katja

2008-04-01

The role of local adaptation and factors other than climate in determining extinction probabilities of species under climate change has not been yet explicitly studied. Here we performed a field experiment with annual plants growing along a steep climatic gradient in Israel to isolate climatic effects for local trait expression. The focus trait was seed dormancy, for which many theoretical predictions exist regarding climate-driven optimal germination behaviour. We evaluated how germination is consistent with theory, indicating local adaptation to current and changing climatic conditions, and how it varies among species and between natural and standardised soil conditions. We reciprocally sowed seeds from three or four origins for each of three annual species, Biscutella didyma, Bromus fasciculatus and Hymenocarpos circinnatus, in their home and neighbouring sowing locations along an aridity gradient. Our predictions were: lower germination fraction for seeds from more arid origins, and higher germination at wetter sowing locations for all seed origins. By sowing seeds in both local and standard soil, we separated climatic effects from local conditions. At the arid sowing location, two species supported the prediction of low germination of drier seed origins, but differences between seed origins at the other sites were not substantial. There were no clear rainfall effects on germination. Germination fractions were consistently lower on local soil than on standard soil, indicating the important role of soil type and neighbour conditions for trait expression. Local environmental conditions may override effects of climate and so should be carefully addressed in future studies testing for the potential of species to adapt or plastically respond to climate change.

Northern tropical Atlantic climate since late Medieval times from Northern Caribbean coral geochemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kilbourne, K. H.; Xu, Y.

2015-12-01

Paleoclimate reconstructions of different global climate modes over the last 1000 years provide the basis for testing the relative roles of forced and unforced variability climate system, which can help us improve projections of future climate change. The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) has been characterized by a combination of persistent La Niña-like conditions, a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (+NAO), and increased Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The northern tropical Atlantic is sensitive to each of these climate patterns, but not all of them have the same regional fingerprint in the modern northern tropical Atlantic. The relative influence of different processes related to these climate patterns can help us better understand regional responses to climate change. The regional response of the northern tropical Atlantic is important because the tropical Atlantic Ocean is a large source of heat and moisture to the global climate system that can feedback onto global climate patterns. This study presents new coral Sr/Ca and δ18O data from the northern tropical Atlantic (Anegada, British Virgin Islands). Comparison of the sub-fossil corals that grew during the 13th and 14th Centuries with modern coral geochemical data from this site indicates relatively cooler mean conditions with a decrease in the oxygen isotopic composition of the water consistent with lower salinities. Similar average annual cycles between modern and sub-fossil Sr/Ca indicate no change in seasonal temperature range, but a difference in the relative phasing of the δ18O seasonal cycles indicates that the fresher mean conditions may be due to a more northerly position of the regional salinity front. This localized response is consistent with some, but not all of the expected regional responses to a La Niña-like state, a +NAO state, and increased AMOC. Understanding these differences can provide insight into the relative importance of advection versus surface fluxes for heat and salt balances at the study site. Ultimately the data support the existing framework for understanding climate during the MCA and demonstrate the importance of regional processes in understanding historic and future climate patterns.

Impact of Desiccation of Aral Sea on the Regional Climate of Central Asia Using WRF Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Ashish; Huang, Huei-Ping; Zavialov, Peter; Khan, Valentina

2018-01-01

This study explores the impacts of the desiccation of the Aral Sea and large-scale climate change on the regional climate of Central Asia in the post-1960 era. A series of climate downscaling experiments for the 1960's and 2000's decades were performed using the Weather Research and Forecast model at 12-km horizontal resolution. To quantify the impacts of the changing surface boundary condition, a set of simulations with an identical lateral boundary condition but different extents of the Aral Sea were performed. It was found that the desiccation of the Aral Sea leads to more snow (and less rain) as desiccated winter surface is relatively much colder than water surface. In summer, desiccation led to substantial warming over the Aral Sea. These impacts were largely confined to within the area covered by the former Aral Sea and its immediate vicinity, although desiccation of the Sea also led to minor cooling over the greater Central Asia in winter. A contrasting set of simulations with an identical surface boundary condition but different lateral boundary conditions produced more identifiable changes in regional climate over the greater Central Asia which was characterized by a warming trend in both winter and summer. Simulations also showed that while the desiccation of the Aral Sea has significant impacts on the local climate over the Sea, the climate over the greater Central Asia on inter-decadal time scale was more strongly influenced by the continental or global-scale climate change on that time scale.

Hydrological response to changing climate conditions: Spatial streamflow variability in the boreal region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teutschbein, Claudia; Grabs, Thomas; Karlsen, Reinert H.; Laudon, Hjalmar; Bishop, Kevin

2016-04-01

It has long been recognized that streamflow-generating processes are not only dependent on climatic conditions, but also affected by physical catchment properties such as topography, geology, soils and land cover. We hypothesize that these landscape characteristics do not only lead to highly variable hydrologic behavior of rather similar catchments under the same stationary climate conditions (Karlsen et al., 2014), but that they also play a fundamental role for the sensitivity of a catchment to a changing climate (Teutschbein et al., 2015). A multi-model ensemble based on 15 regional climate models was combined with a multi-catchment approach to explore the hydrologic sensitivity of 14 partially nested and rather similar catchments in Northern Sweden to changing climate conditions and the importance of small-scale spatial variability. Current (1981-2010) and future (2061-2090) streamflow was simulated with the HBV model. As expected, projected increases in temperature and precipitation resulted in increased total available streamflow, with lower spring and summer flows, but substantially higher winter streamflow. Furthermore, significant changes in flow durations with lower chances of both high and low flows can be expected in boreal Sweden in the future. This overall trend in projected streamflow pattern changes was comparable among the analyzed catchments while the magnitude of change differed considerably. This suggests that catchments belonging to the same region can show distinctly different degrees of hydrological responses to the same external climate change signal. We reason that differences in spatially distributed physical catchment properties at smaller scales are not only of great importance for current streamflow behavior, but also play a major role as first-order control for the sensitivity of catchments to changing climate conditions. References Karlsen, R.H., T. Grabs, K. Bishop, H. Laudon, and J. Seibert (2014). Landscape controls on spatiotemporal variability of specific discharge in a boreal region, Abstract #H52B-07 presented at 2014 Fall Meeting, AGU, San Francisco, Calif., 15-19 Dec. [Available at http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.H52B..07K, last accessed 11 Jan 2016]. Teutschbein, C., T. Grabs, R.H. Karlsen, H. Laudon and K. Bishop (2015). Hydrological Response to Changing Climate Conditions: Spatial Streamflow Variability in the Boreal Region, Water Resour Res, doi: 10.1002/2015WR017337. [Available at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015WR017337/abstract, last accessed 11 Jan 2016].

Leaf-trait plasticity and species vulnerability to climate change in a Mongolian steppe.

PubMed

Liancourt, Pierre; Boldgiv, Bazartseren; Song, Daniel S; Spence, Laura A; Helliker, Brent R; Petraitis, Peter S; Casper, Brenda B

2015-09-01

Climate change is expected to modify plant assemblages in ways that will have major consequences for ecosystem functions. How climate change will affect community composition will depend on how individual species respond, which is likely related to interspecific differences in functional traits. The extraordinary plasticity of some plant traits is typically neglected in assessing how climate change will affect different species. In the Mongolian steppe, we examined whether leaf functional traits under ambient conditions and whether plasticity in these traits under altered climate could explain climate-induced biomass responses in 12 co-occurring plant species. We experimentally created three probable climate change scenarios and used a model selection procedure to determine the set of baseline traits or plasticity values that best explained biomass response. Under all climate change scenarios, plasticity for at least one leaf trait correlated with change in species performance, while functional leaf-trait values in ambient conditions did not. We demonstrate that trait plasticity could play a critical role in vulnerability of species to a rapidly changing environment. Plasticity should be considered when examining how climate change will affect plant performance, species' niche spaces, and ecological processes that depend on plant community composition. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Trends and uncertainties in budburst projections of Norway spruce in Northern Europe.

PubMed

Olsson, Cecilia; Olin, Stefan; Lindström, Johan; Jönsson, Anna Maria

2017-12-01

Budburst is regulated by temperature conditions, and a warming climate is associated with earlier budburst. A range of phenology models has been developed to assess climate change effects, and they tend to produce different results. This is mainly caused by different model representations of tree physiology processes, selection of observational data for model parameterization, and selection of climate model data to generate future projections. In this study, we applied (i) Bayesian inference to estimate model parameter values to address uncertainties associated with selection of observational data, (ii) selection of climate model data representative of a larger dataset, and (iii) ensembles modeling over multiple initial conditions, model classes, model parameterizations, and boundary conditions to generate future projections and uncertainty estimates. The ensemble projection indicated that the budburst of Norway spruce in northern Europe will on average take place 10.2 ± 3.7 days earlier in 2051-2080 than in 1971-2000, given climate conditions corresponding to RCP 8.5. Three provenances were assessed separately (one early and two late), and the projections indicated that the relationship among provenance will remain also in a warmer climate. Structurally complex models were more likely to fail predicting budburst for some combinations of site and year than simple models. However, they contributed to the overall picture of current understanding of climate impacts on tree phenology by capturing additional aspects of temperature response, for example, chilling. Model parameterizations based on single sites were more likely to result in model failure than parameterizations based on multiple sites, highlighting that the model parameterization is sensitive to initial conditions and may not perform well under other climate conditions, whether the change is due to a shift in space or over time. By addressing a range of uncertainties, this study showed that ensemble modeling provides a more robust impact assessment than would a single phenology model run.

Is the area of the orbital opening in humans related to climate?

PubMed

Tomaszewska, Agnieszka; Kwiatkowska, Barbara; Jankauskas, Rimantas

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate whether climatic conditions impact the size of the anterior orbital opening in humans. The previous research has shown that morphology of the human orbit, a trait strongly related to the shape of the cranium, varies significantly among populations. However, the mechanisms of this variation are still debatable. Besides such evolutionary forces as genetic drift, climatic conditions may be involved. Thermoregulatory processes affect skull shape, and thus may also influence orbital morphology. A total of 846 dry skulls of male and female adults from three climatic areas (i.e., warm, temperate, and cold) of Europe were evaluated. The areas of the left and right orbital openings were measured using the three-dimensional contact scanner MicroScribe G2L, and analyzed with regard to climate. The results reveal a statistically significant association with climatic conditions on the area of orbital opening in accordance with Bergmann's rule. The anterior orbital opening area was smaller in male individuals from the cold climate, and larger in individuals from the warm climate areas. These data may support the hypothesized association between size of the orbital opening and adaptation to different climatic conditions, but only in males. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

[Research on climatic factors of ecology suitability regionalization of atractylodis].

PubMed

Tan, Zhe-tian; Wang, Hao; Zhu, Shou-dong; Yan, Yu-ping; Guo, Lan-ping; Zheng, Yu-guang

2015-11-01

Through study on the correlation between atractylodis lactones ingredient content and climatic factors, we research regionalization from climatic of five main producing provinces of the country, in order to provide a scientific basis for atractylodis' conscious cultivation. By sampling from 40 origins which from five main producing provinces of the country, we use SPSS to analysis variation of atractylodis lactones ingredient content in different conditions of climatic factors and the effect of each factors. Then according to the relationship between atractylodis lactones ingredient content and climatic factors, we use ArcGIS to conduct ecological suitability regionalization based on climatic factors. The most suitable climatic condition for cultivation of atractylodis: the wettest month precipitation 220-230 mm, the warmest average temperature 25 degrees C, the average temperature of driest season 10 degrees C.

Thermal performance of a Concrete Cool Roof under different climatic conditions of Mexico

DOE PAGES

Hernández-Pérez, I.; Álvarez, G.; Gilbert, H.; ...

2014-11-27

A cool roof is an ordinary roof with a reflective coating on the exterior surface which has a high solar reflectance and high thermal emittance. These properties let the roof keep a lower temperature than a standard roof under the same conditions. In this work, the thermal performance of a concrete roof with and without insulation and with two colors has been analyzed using the finite volume method. The boundary conditions of the external roof surface were taken from hourly averaged climatic data of four cities. For the internal surface, it is considered that the building is air-conditioned and themore » inside air has a constant temperature. The interior surface temperature and the heat flux rates into the roofs were obtained for two consecutive days in order to assess the benefits of a cool roofs in different climates.« less

Modeling daily soil temperature over diverse climate conditions in Iran—a comparison of multiple linear regression and support vector regression techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delbari, Masoomeh; Sharifazari, Salman; Mohammadi, Ehsan

2018-02-01

The knowledge of soil temperature at different depths is important for agricultural industry and for understanding climate change. The aim of this study is to evaluate the performance of a support vector regression (SVR)-based model in estimating daily soil temperature at 10, 30 and 100 cm depth at different climate conditions over Iran. The obtained results were compared to those obtained from a more classical multiple linear regression (MLR) model. The correlation sensitivity for the input combinations and periodicity effect were also investigated. Climatic data used as inputs to the models were minimum and maximum air temperature, solar radiation, relative humidity, dew point, and the atmospheric pressure (reduced to see level), collected from five synoptic stations Kerman, Ahvaz, Tabriz, Saghez, and Rasht located respectively in the hyper-arid, arid, semi-arid, Mediterranean, and hyper-humid climate conditions. According to the results, the performance of both MLR and SVR models was quite well at surface layer, i.e., 10-cm depth. However, SVR performed better than MLR in estimating soil temperature at deeper layers especially 100 cm depth. Moreover, both models performed better in humid climate condition than arid and hyper-arid areas. Further, adding a periodicity component into the modeling process considerably improved the models' performance especially in the case of SVR.

Evaluation of regional climate simulations over the Great Lakes region driven by three global data sets

Treesearch

Shiyuan Zhong; Xiuping Li; Xindi Bian; Warren E. Heilman; L. Ruby Leung; William I. Jr. Gustafson

2012-01-01

The performance of regional climate simulations is evaluated for the Great Lakes region. Three 10-year (1990-1999) current-climate simulations are performed using the MM5 regional climate model (RCM) with 36-km horizontal resolution. The simulations employed identical configuration and physical parameterizations, but different lateral boundary conditions and sea-...

SIMULATING REGIONAL-SCALE AIR QUALITY WITH DYNAMIC CHANGES IN REGIONAL CLIMATE AND CHEMICAL BOUNDARY CONDITIONS

EPA Science Inventory

This poster compares air quality modeling simulations under current climate and a future (approximately 2050) climate scenario. Differences in predicted ozone episodes and daily average PM_2.5 concentrations are presented, along with vertical ozone profiles. Modeling ...

Assessment of production risks for winter wheat in different German regions under climate change conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kersebaum, K. C.; Gandorfer, M.; Wegehenkel, M.

2012-04-01

The study shows climate change impacts on wheat production in selected regions across Germany. To estimate yield and economic effects the agro-ecosystem model HERMES was used. The model performed runs using 2 different releases of the model WETTREG providing statistically downscaled climate change scenarios for the weather station network of the German Weather Service. Simulations were done using intersected GIS information on soil types and land use identifying the most relevant sites for wheat production. The production risks for wheat yields at the middle of this century were compared to a reference of the present climate. The irrigation demand was determined by the model using an automatic irrigation mode. Production risks with and without irrigation were assessed and the economic feasibility to reduce production risks by irrigation was evaluated. Costs and benefits were compared. Additionally, environmental effects, e.g. groundwater recharge and nitrogen emissions were assessed for irrigated and rain fed systems. Results show that positive and negative effects of climate change occur within most regions depending on the site conditions. Water holding capacity and groundwater distance were the most important factors which determined the vulnerability of sites. Under climate change condition in the middle of the next century we can expect especially at sites with low water holding capacity decreasing average gross margins, higher production risks and a reduced nitrogen use efficiency under rainfed conditions. Irrigation seems to be profitable and risk reducing at those sites, provided that water for irrigation is available. Additionally, the use of irrigation can also increase nitrogen use efficiency which reduced emissions by leaching. Despite the site conditions results depend strongly on the used regional climate scenario and the model approach to consider the effect of elevated CO2 in the atmosphere.

Central Tropical Pacific Variability And ENSO Response To Changing Climate Boundary Conditions: Evidence From Individual Line Island Foraminifera

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rustic, G. T.; Polissar, P. J.; Ravelo, A. C.; White, S. M.

2017-12-01

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) plays a dominant role in Earth's climate variability. Paleoceanographic evidence suggests that ENSO has changed in the past, and these changes have been linked to large-scale climatic shifts. While a close relationship between ENSO evolution and climate boundary conditions has been predicted, testing these predictions remains challenging. These climate boundary conditions, including insolation, the mean surface temperature gradient of the tropical Pacific, global ice volume, and tropical thermocline depth, often co-vary and may work together to suppress or enhance the ocean-atmosphere feedbacks that drive ENSO variability. Furthermore, suitable paleo-archives spanning multiple climate states are sparse. We have aimed to test ENSO response to changing climate boundary conditions by generating new reconstructions of mixed-layer variability from sedimentary archives spanning the last three glacial-interglacial cycles from the Central Tropical Pacific Line Islands, where El Niño is strongly expressed. We analyzed Mg/Ca ratios from individual foraminifera to reconstruct mixed-layer variability at discrete time intervals representing combinations of climatic boundary conditions from the middle Holocene to Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 8. We observe changes in the mixed-layer temperature variability during MIS 5 and during the previous interglacial (MIS 7) showing significant reductions in ENSO amplitude. Differences in variability during glacial and interglacial intervals are also observed. Additionally, we reconstructed mixed-layer and thermocline conditions using multi-species Mg/Ca and stable isotope measurements to more fully characterize the state of the Central Tropical Pacific during these intervals. These reconstructions provide us with a unique view of Central Tropical Pacific variability and water-column structure at discrete intervals under varying boundary climate conditions with which to assess factors that shape ENSO variability.

A new concept to study the effect of climate change on different flood types

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nissen, Katrin; Nied, Manuela; Pardowitz, Tobias; Ulbrich, Uwe; Merz, Bruno

2014-05-01

Flooding is triggered by the interaction of various processes. Especially important are the hydrological conditions prior to the event (e.g. soil saturation, snow cover) and the meteorological conditions during flood development (e.g. rainfall, temperature). Depending on these (pre-) conditions different flood types may develop such as long-rain floods, short-rain floods, flash floods, snowmelt floods and rain-on-snow floods. A new concept taking these factors into account is introduced and applied to flooding in the Elbe River basin. During the period September 1957 to August 2002, 82 flood events are identified and classified according to their flood type. The hydrological and meteorological conditions at each day during the analysis period are detemined. In case of the hydrological conditions, a soil moisture pattern classification is carried out. Soil moisture is simulated with a rainfall-runoff model driven by atmospheric observations. Days of similar soil moisture patterns are identified by a principle component analysis and a subsequent cluster analysis on the leading principal components. The meteorological conditions are identified by applying a cluster analysis to the geopotential height, temperature and humidity fields of the ERA40 reanalysis data set using the SANDRA cluster algorithm. We are able to identify specific pattern combinations of hydrological pre-conditions and meteorological conditions which favour different flood types. Based on these results it is possible to analyse the effect of climate change on different flood types. As an example we show first results obtained using an ensemble of climate scenario simulations of ECHAM5 MPIOM model, taking only the changes in the meteorological conditions into account. According to the simulations, the frequency of the meteorological patterns favouring long-rain, short-rain and flash floods will not change significantly under future climate conditions. A significant increase is, however, predicted for the amount of precipitation associated with many of the relevant meteorological patterns. The increase varies between 12 and 67% depending on the weather pattern.

Using dry and wet year hydroclimatic extremes to guide future hydrologic projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oni, Stephen; Futter, Martyn; Ledesma, Jose; Teutschbein, Claudia; Buttle, Jim; Laudon, Hjalmar

2016-07-01

There are growing numbers of studies on climate change impacts on forest hydrology, but limited attempts have been made to use current hydroclimatic variabilities to constrain projections of future climatic conditions. Here we used historical wet and dry years as a proxy for expected future extreme conditions in a boreal catchment. We showed that runoff could be underestimated by at least 35 % when dry year parameterizations were used for wet year conditions. Uncertainty analysis showed that behavioural parameter sets from wet and dry years separated mainly on precipitation-related parameters and to a lesser extent on parameters related to landscape processes, while uncertainties inherent in climate models (as opposed to differences in calibration or performance metrics) appeared to drive the overall uncertainty in runoff projections under dry and wet hydroclimatic conditions. Hydrologic model calibration for climate impact studies could be based on years that closely approximate anticipated conditions to better constrain uncertainty in projecting extreme conditions in boreal and temperate regions.

Effects of climate on the expression of the urban stream syndrome

EPA Science Inventory

Urban streams display many similar symptoms around the world; however, there is growing awareness that the mechanisms and severity of the symptoms differ among regions. Climate is a key contributor to these differences via 1) variation in the initial conditions of streams across ...

Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engström, Kerstin; Olin, Stefan; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.; Brogaard, Sara; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Alexander, Peter; Murray-Rust, Dave; Arneth, Almut

2016-11-01

We present a modelling framework to simulate probabilistic futures of global cropland areas that are conditional on the SSP (shared socio-economic pathway) scenarios. Simulations are based on the Parsimonious Land Use Model (PLUM) linked with the global dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS (Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator) using socio-economic data from the SSPs and climate data from the RCPs (representative concentration pathways). The simulated range of global cropland is 893-2380 Mha in 2100 (± 1 standard deviation), with the main uncertainties arising from differences in the socio-economic conditions prescribed by the SSP scenarios and the assumptions that underpin the translation of qualitative SSP storylines into quantitative model input parameters. Uncertainties in the assumptions for population growth, technological change and cropland degradation were found to be the most important for global cropland, while uncertainty in food consumption had less influence on the results. The uncertainties arising from climate variability and the differences between climate change scenarios do not strongly affect the range of global cropland futures. Some overlap occurred across all of the conditional probabilistic futures, except for those based on SSP3. We conclude that completely different socio-economic and climate change futures, although sharing low to medium population development, can result in very similar cropland areas on the aggregated global scale.

Dendrometer studies in urban and rural environments in Stockholm, Sweden

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rocha, Eva; Holzkämper, Steffen

2017-04-01

With this study we investigate growth performances of Pinus sylvestris growing under the influence of the Urban Heat Island of the city of Stockholm, Sweden, and trees growing in the rural surrounding of the city. The aims of this investigation are to see whether and how much the growth performances differ, and which climatic parameters control the tree growth at the respective locations. Stockholm holds one of the world's longest observational climate records, reaching back to AD 1756. Since climate data are collected at a location which today is well within the Urban Heat Island, it is relevant to quantify the correlation differences between climate and tree growth data from trees which actually grow under the same climate conditions and trees growing under natural, rural climate conditions. Applied methods include Remote Sensing and GIS for identification and characterization of the Urban Heat Island, monitoring of tree growth at 30 min-resolution with point dendrometers (Ecomatik) and monitoring of local climate directly at the tree sites. First results indicate emphasized growth differences between the urban and the rural sites, with distinctively higher daily diameter change amplitudes at the urban sites compared to the rural sites, which can be explained by differences in relative humidity and temperature ranges between the sites. We will present and discuss results from 1 year of measurements, focusing on correlation analysis between climate and tree growth data from urban and rural sites, as well as practical issues with dendrometer measurements.

Neandertal versus Modern Human Dietary Responses to Climatic Fluctuations

PubMed Central

El Zaatari, Sireen; Grine, Frederick E.; Ungar, Peter S.; Hublin, Jean-Jacques

2016-01-01

The Neandertal lineage developed successfully throughout western Eurasia and effectively survived the harsh and severely changing environments of the alternating glacial/interglacial cycles from the middle of the Pleistocene until Marine Isotope Stage 3. Yet, towards the end of this stage, at the time of deteriorating climatic conditions that eventually led to the Last Glacial Maximum, and soon after modern humans entered western Eurasia, the Neandertals disappeared. Western Eurasia was by then exclusively occupied by modern humans. We use occlusal molar microwear texture analysis to examine aspects of diet in western Eurasian Paleolithic hominins in relation to fluctuations in food supplies that resulted from the oscillating climatic conditions of the Pleistocene. There is demonstrable evidence for differences in behavior that distinguish Upper Paleolithic humans from members of the Neandertal lineage. Specifically, whereas the Neandertals altered their diets in response to changing paleoecological conditions, the diets of Upper Paleolithic humans seem to have been less affected by slight changes in vegetation/climatic conditions but were linked to changes in their technological complexes. The results of this study also indicate differences in resource exploitation strategies between these two hominin groups. We argue that these differences in subsistence strategies, if they had already been established at the time of the first contact between these two hominin taxa, may have given modern humans an advantage over the Neandertals, and may have contributed to the persistence of our species despite habitat-related changes in food availabilities associated with climate fluctuations. PMID:27119336

Secondary calcification and dissolution respond differently to future ocean conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silbiger, N. J.; Donahue, M. J.

2015-01-01

Climate change threatens both the accretion and erosion processes that sustain coral reefs. Secondary calcification, bioerosion, and reef dissolution are integral to the structural complexity and long-term persistence of coral reefs, yet these processes have received less research attention than reef accretion by corals. In this study, we use climate scenarios from RCP 8.5 to examine the combined effects of rising ocean acidity and sea surface temperature (SST) on both secondary calcification and dissolution rates of a natural coral rubble community using a flow-through aquarium system. We found that secondary reef calcification and dissolution responded differently to the combined effect of pCO2 and temperature. Calcification had a non-linear response to the combined effect of pCO2 and temperature: the highest calcification rate occurred slightly above ambient conditions and the lowest calcification rate was in the highest temperature-pCO2 condition. In contrast, dissolution increased linearly with temperature-pCO2 . The rubble community switched from net calcification to net dissolution at +271 μatm pCO2 and 0.75 °C above ambient conditions, suggesting that rubble reefs may shift from net calcification to net dissolution before the end of the century. Our results indicate that (i) dissolution may be more sensitive to climate change than calcification and (ii) that calcification and dissolution have different functional responses to climate stressors; this highlights the need to study the effects of climate stressors on both calcification and dissolution to predict future changes in coral reefs.

Secondary calcification and dissolution respond differently to future ocean conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silbiger, N. J.; Donahue, M. J.

2014-09-01

Climate change threatens both the accretion and erosion processes that sustain coral reefs. Secondary calcification, bioerosion, and reef dissolution are integral to the structural complexity and long-term persistence of coral reefs, yet these processes have received less research attention than reef accretion by corals. In this study, we use climate scenarios from RCP8.5 to examine the combined effects of rising ocean acidity and SST on both secondary calcification and dissolution rates of a natural coral rubble community using a flow-through aquarium system. We found that secondary reef calcification and dissolution responded differently to the combined effect of pCO2 and temperature. Calcification had a non-linear response to the combined effect of pCO2-temperature: the highest calcification rate occurred slightly above ambient conditions and the lowest calcification rate was in the highest pCO2-temperature condition. In contrast, dissolution increased linearly with pCO2-temperature. The rubble community switched from net calcification to net dissolution at +272 μatm pCO2 and 0.84 °C above ambient conditions, suggesting that rubble reefs may shift from net calcification to net dissolution before the end of the century. Our results indicate that dissolution may be more sensitive to climate change than calcification, and that calcification and dissolution have different functional responses to climate stressors, highlighting the need to study the effects of climate stressors on both calcification and dissolution to predict future changes in coral reefs.

Neandertal versus Modern Human Dietary Responses to Climatic Fluctuations.

PubMed

El Zaatari, Sireen; Grine, Frederick E; Ungar, Peter S; Hublin, Jean-Jacques

2016-01-01

The Neandertal lineage developed successfully throughout western Eurasia and effectively survived the harsh and severely changing environments of the alternating glacial/interglacial cycles from the middle of the Pleistocene until Marine Isotope Stage 3. Yet, towards the end of this stage, at the time of deteriorating climatic conditions that eventually led to the Last Glacial Maximum, and soon after modern humans entered western Eurasia, the Neandertals disappeared. Western Eurasia was by then exclusively occupied by modern humans. We use occlusal molar microwear texture analysis to examine aspects of diet in western Eurasian Paleolithic hominins in relation to fluctuations in food supplies that resulted from the oscillating climatic conditions of the Pleistocene. There is demonstrable evidence for differences in behavior that distinguish Upper Paleolithic humans from members of the Neandertal lineage. Specifically, whereas the Neandertals altered their diets in response to changing paleoecological conditions, the diets of Upper Paleolithic humans seem to have been less affected by slight changes in vegetation/climatic conditions but were linked to changes in their technological complexes. The results of this study also indicate differences in resource exploitation strategies between these two hominin groups. We argue that these differences in subsistence strategies, if they had already been established at the time of the first contact between these two hominin taxa, may have given modern humans an advantage over the Neandertals, and may have contributed to the persistence of our species despite habitat-related changes in food availabilities associated with climate fluctuations.

Linking Teleconnections and Iowa's Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowe, S. T.; Villarini, G.; Lavers, D. A.; Scoccimarro, E.

2013-12-01

In recent years Iowa and the U.S. Midwest has experienced both extreme drought and flood periods. With a drought in 2012 bounded by major floods in 2011 and 2013, the rapid progression from one extreme to the next is on the forefront of the public mind. Given that Iowa is a major agricultural state, extreme weather conditions can have severe socioeconomic consequences. In this research we investigate the large-scale climate processes that occurred concurrently and before a range of dry/wet and cold/hot periods to improve process understanding of these events. It is essential to understand the large-scale climate processes, as these can then provide valuable insight toward the development of long-term climate forecasts for Iowa. In this study monthly and seasonal surface temperature and precipitation over 1950-2012 across Iowa are used. Precipitation and surface temperature data are retrieved from the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) Climate Group at Oregon State University. The large-scale atmospheric fields are obtained from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) / National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Reanalysis 1 Project. Precipitation is stratified according to wet, normal, and dry conditions, while temperature according to hot, average, and cold periods. Different stratification criteria based on the precipitation and temperature distributions are examined. Mean sea-level pressure and sea-surface temperature composite maps for the northern hemisphere are then produced for the wet/dry conditions, and cold/hot conditions. Further analyses include correlation, anomalies, and assessment of large-scale planetary wave activity, shedding light on the differences and similarities among the opposite weather conditions. The results of this work will highlight regional weather patterns that are related to the climate over Iowa, providing valuable insight into the mechanisms controlling the occurrence of potentially extreme weather conditions over this area.

Evaluating the ecological sustainability of a pinyon-juniper grassland ecosystem in northern Arizona

Treesearch

Reuben Weisz; Jack Triepke; Don Vandendriesche; Mike Manthei; Jim Youtz; Jerry Simon; Wayne Robbie

2010-01-01

In order to develop strategic land management plans, managers must assess current and future ecological conditions. Climate change has expanded the need to assess the sustainability of ecosystems and predict their conditions under different climate change and management scenarios using landscape dynamics simulation models. We present a methodology for developing a...

Regional climate modulates the canopy mosaic of favourable and risky microclimates for insects.

PubMed

Pincebourde, Sylvain; Sinoquet, Herve; Combes, Didier; Casas, Jerome

2007-05-01

1. One major gap in our ability to predict the impacts of climate change is a quantitative analysis of temperatures experienced by organisms under natural conditions. We developed a framework to describe and quantify the impacts of local climate on the mosaic of microclimates and physiological states of insects within tree canopies. This approach was applied to a leaf mining moth feeding on apple leaf tissues. 2. Canopy geometry was explicitly considered by mapping the 3D position and orientation of more than 26 000 leaves in an apple tree. Four published models for canopy radiation interception, energy budget of leaves and mines, body temperature and developmental rate of the leaf miner were integrated. Model predictions were compared with actual microclimate temperatures. The biophysical model accurately predicted temperature within mines at different positions within the tree crown. 3. Field temperature measurements indicated that leaf and mine temperature patterns differ according to the regional climatic conditions (cloudy or sunny) and depending on their location within the canopy. Mines in the sun can be warmer than those in the shade by several degrees and the heterogeneity of mine temperature was incremented by 120%, compared with that of leaf temperature. 4. The integrated model was used to explore the impact of both warm and exceptionally hot climatic conditions recorded during a heat wave on the microclimate heterogeneity at canopy scale. During warm conditions, larvae in sunlight-exposed mines experienced nearly optimal growth conditions compared with those within shaded mines. The developmental rate was increased by almost 50% in the sunny microhabitat compared with the shaded location. Larvae, however, experienced optimal temperatures for their development inside shaded mines during extreme climatic conditions, whereas larvae in exposed mines were overheating, leading to major risks of mortality. 5. Tree canopies act as both magnifiers and reducers of the climatic regime experienced in open air outside canopies. Favourable and risky spots within the canopy do change as a function of the climatic conditions at the regional scale. The shifting nature of the mosaic of suitable and risky habitats may explain the observed uniform distribution of leaf miners within tree canopies.

Detecting hydrological changes through conceptual model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viola, Francesco; Caracciolo, Domenico; Pumo, Dario; Francipane, Antonio; Valerio Noto, Leonardo

2015-04-01

Natural changes and human modifications in hydrological systems coevolve and interact in a coupled and interlinked way. If, on one hand, climatic changes are stochastic, non-steady, and affect the hydrological systems, on the other hand, human-induced changes due to over-exploitation of soils and water resources modifies the natural landscape, water fluxes and its partitioning. Indeed, the traditional assumption of static systems in hydrological analysis, which has been adopted for long time, fails whenever transient climatic conditions and/or land use changes occur. Time series analysis is a way to explore environmental changes together with societal changes; unfortunately, the not distinguishability between causes restrict the scope of this method. In order to overcome this limitation, it is possible to couple time series analysis with an opportune hydrological model, such as a conceptual hydrological model, which offers a schematization of complex dynamics acting within a basin. Assuming that model parameters represent morphological basin characteristics and that calibration is a way to detect hydrological signature at a specific moment, it is possible to argue that calibrating the model over different time windows could be a method for detecting potential hydrological changes. In order to test the capabilities of a conceptual model in detecting hydrological changes, this work presents different "in silico" experiments. A synthetic-basin is forced with an ensemble of possible future scenarios generated with a stochastic weather generator able to simulate steady and non-steady climatic conditions. The experiments refer to Mediterranean climate, which is characterized by marked seasonality, and consider the outcomes of the IPCC 5th report for describing climate evolution in the next century. In particular, in order to generate future climate change scenarios, a stochastic downscaling in space and time is carried out using realizations of an ensemble of General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the future scenarios 2046-2065 and 2081-2100. Land use changes (i.e., changes in the fraction of impervious area due to increasing urbanization) are explicitly simulated, while the reference hydrological responses are assessed by the spatially distributed, process-based hydrological model tRIBS, the TIN-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator. Several scenarios have been created, describing hypothetical centuries with steady conditions, climate change conditions, land use change conditions and finally complex conditions involving both transient climatic modifications and gradual land use changes. A conceptual lumped model, the EHSM (EcoHydrological Streamflow Model) is calibrated for the above mentioned scenarios with regard to different time-windows. The calibrated parameters show high sensitivity to anthropic variations in land use and/or climatic variability. Land use changes are clearly visible from parameters evolution especially when steady climatic conditions are considered. When the increase in urbanization is coupled with rainfall reduction the ability to detect human interventions through the analysis of conceptual model parameters is weakened.

Assessing Students' Learning about Fundamental Concepts of Climate Change under Two Different Conditions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Porter, Dianna; Weaver, Andrew J.; Raptis, Helen

2012-01-01

Students from three different British Columbia grade six classes were followed through two weeks of instruction on climate change. Pre, post, and follow-up surveys were used to determine the differences in knowledge gained and retained by students that received direct instruction from their science teacher, and by those who received equivalent…

Ecoclimatic indicators to study crop suitability in present and future climatic conditionsTIC CONDITIONS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caubel, Julie; Garcia de Cortazar Atauri, Inaki; Huard, Frédéric; Launay, Marie; Ripoche, Dominique; Gouache, David; Bancal, Marie-Odile; Graux, Anne-Isabelle; De Noblet, Nathalie

2013-04-01

Climate change is expected to affect both regional and global food production through changes in overall agroclimatic conditions. It is therefore necessary to develop simple tools of crop suitability diagnosis in a given area so that stakeholders can envisage land use adaptations under climate change conditions. The most common way to investigate potential impacts of climate on the evolution of agrosystems is to make use of an array of agroclimatic indicators, which provide synthetic information derived from climatic variables and calculated within fixed periods (i.e. January first - 31th July). However, the information obtained during these periods does not enable to take account of the plant response to climate. In this work, we present some results of the research program ORACLE (Opportunities and Risks of Agrosystems & forests in response to CLimate, socio-economic and policy changEs in France (and Europe). We proposed a suite of relevant ecoclimatic indicators, based on temperature and rainfall, in order to evaluate crop suitability for both present and new climatic conditions. Ecoclimatic indicators are agroclimatic indicators (e.g., grain heat stress) calculated during specific phenological phases so as to take account of the plant response to climate (e.g., the grain filling period, flowering- harvest). These indicators are linked with the ecophysiological processes they characterize (for e.g., the grain filling). To represent this methodology, we studied the suitability of winter wheat in future climatic conditions through three distinct French sites, Toulouse, Dijon and Versailles. Indicators have been calculated using climatic data from 1950 to 2100 simulated by the global climate model ARPEGE forced by a greenhouse effect corresponding to the SRES A1B scenario. The Quantile-Quantile downscaling method was applied to obtain data for the three locations. Phenological stages (emergence, ear 1 cm, flowering, beginning of grain filling and harvest) have been simulated by the STICS, CERES and PANORAMIX crop models with the same input climatic data. Results showed that phenological stages tend to be reached earlier in the future. Significant differences were noted between indicators calculated for invariable calendar periods and indicators calculated during phenological phases. Therefore, ecoclimatic indicators are relevant to provide accurate information about crop suitability in the context of climate change. Whereas most of the indicators do not indicate any significant changes in the future, plant mortality due to frost risks from emergence to ear 1 cm tends to decrease and water supply tends to be more limiting in the future. These indicators do not replace models but represent additional tools for understanding and spatializing some results obtained by models. Their use can provide a spatial distribution of crops according to their suitability in present or future climatic conditions and enable us to minimize the risk of crop failure. It would be interesting to consider the response uncertainties according to the uncertainties we have in future climatic predictions by using different greenhouse emission scenarios and downscaling methods.

Challenges in predicting climate change impacts on pome fruit phenology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darbyshire, Rebecca; Webb, Leanne; Goodwin, Ian; Barlow, E. W. R.

2014-08-01

Climate projection data were applied to two commonly used pome fruit flowering models to investigate potential differences in predicted full bloom timing. The two methods, fixed thermal time and sequential chill-growth, produced different results for seven apple and pear varieties at two Australian locations. The fixed thermal time model predicted incremental advancement of full bloom, while results were mixed from the sequential chill-growth model. To further investigate how the sequential chill-growth model reacts under climate perturbed conditions, four simulations were created to represent a wider range of species physiological requirements. These were applied to five Australian locations covering varied climates. Lengthening of the chill period and contraction of the growth period was common to most results. The relative dominance of the chill or growth component tended to predict whether full bloom advanced, remained similar or was delayed with climate warming. The simplistic structure of the fixed thermal time model and the exclusion of winter chill conditions in this method indicate it is unlikely to be suitable for projection analyses. The sequential chill-growth model includes greater complexity; however, reservations in using this model for impact analyses remain. The results demonstrate that appropriate representation of physiological processes is essential to adequately predict changes to full bloom under climate perturbed conditions with greater model development needed.

European vegetation during Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage-3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huntley, Brian; Alfano, Mary J. o.; Allen, Judy R. M.; Pollard, Dave; Tzedakis, Polychronis C.; de Beaulieu, Jacques-Louis; Grüger, Eberhard; Watts, Bill

2003-03-01

European vegetation during representative "warm" and "cold" intervals of stage-3 was inferred from pollen analytical data. The inferred vegetation differs in character and spatial pattern from that of both fully glacial and fully interglacial conditions and exhibits contrasts between warm and cold intervals, consistent with other evidence for stage-3 palaeoenvironmental fluctuations. European vegetation thus appears to have been an integral component of millennial environmental fluctuations during stage-3; vegetation responded to this scale of environmental change and through feedback mechanisms may have had effects upon the environment. The pollen-inferred vegetation was compared with vegetation simulated using the BIOME 3.5 vegetation model for climatic conditions simulated using a regional climate model (RegCM2) nested within a coupled global climate and vegetation model (GENESIS-BIOME). Despite some discrepancies in detail, both approaches capture the principal features of the present vegetation of Europe. The simulated vegetation for stage-3 differs markedly from that inferred from pollen analytical data, implying substantial discrepancy between the simulated climate and that actually prevailing. Sensitivity analyses indicate that the simulated climate is too warm and probably has too short a winter season. These discrepancies may reflect incorrect specification of sea surface temperature or sea-ice conditions and may be exacerbated by vegetation-climate feedback in the coupled global model.

Tree-ring anatomy and carbon isotope ratio show both direct and legacy effects of climate on bimodal xylem formation in Pinus pinea.

PubMed

Castagneri, Daniele; Battipaglia, Giovanna; von Arx, Georg; Pacheco, Arturo; Carrer, Marco

2018-04-24

Understanding how climate affects xylem formation is critical for predicting the impact of future conditions on tree growth and functioning in the Mediterranean region, which is expected to face warmer and drier conditions. However, mechanisms of growth response to climate at different temporal scales are still largely unknown, being complicated by separation between spring and autumn xylogenesis (bimodal temporal pattern) in most species such as Mediterranean pines. We investigated wood anatomical characteristics and carbon stable isotope composition in Mediterranean Pinus pinea L. along tree-ring series at intra-ring resolution to assess xylem formation processes and responses to intra-annual climate variability. Xylem anatomy was strongly related to environmental conditions occurring a few months before and during the growing season, but was not affected by summer drought. In particular, the lumen diameter of the first earlywood tracheids was related to winter precipitation, whereas the size of tracheids produced later was influenced by mid-spring precipitation. Diameter of latewood tracheids was associated with precipitation in mid-autumn. In contrast, tree-ring carbon isotope composition was mostly related to climate of the previous seasons. Earlywood was likely formed using both recently and formerly assimilated carbon, while latewood relied mostly on carbon accumulated many months prior to its formation. Our integrated approach provided new evidence on the short-term and carry-over effects of climate on the bimodal temporal xylem formation in P. pinea. Investigations on different variables and time scales are necessary to disentangle the complex climate influence on tree growth processes under Mediterranean conditions.

Variations in chemical sexual signals of Psammodromus algirus lizards along an elevation gradient may reflect altitudinal variation in microclimatic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martín, José; Javier Zamora-Camacho, Francisco; Reguera, Senda; López, Pilar; Moreno-Rueda, Gregorio

2017-04-01

Chemical signals used in intraspecific communication are expected to evolve or to show phenotipic plasticity to maximize efficacy in the climatic conditions of a given environment. Elevational environmental gradients in mountains provide a good opportunity to test this hypothesis by examining variation in characteristics of signals in species found across different elevations with different climatic conditions. We analyzed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) the lipophilic fraction of the femoral gland secretions of male lizards Psammodromus algirus (Fam. Lacertidae) from six localities located along a 2200 m elevational gradient at Sierra Nevada Mountains (SE Spain). There was elevational clinal variation in climatic variables, number of femoral pores and in the relative proportions of some classes of compounds (i.e., ethyl esters of fatty acids, waxy esters, and aldehydes) but not others. We discuss how this variation would result in different physicochemical properties of the entire femoral secretion, which might help optimize the efficacy of chemical signals under the particular microclimatic conditions at each elevation.

Variations in chemical sexual signals of Psammodromus algirus lizards along an elevation gradient may reflect altitudinal variation in microclimatic conditions.

PubMed

Martín, José; Javier Zamora-Camacho, Francisco; Reguera, Senda; López, Pilar; Moreno-Rueda, Gregorio

2017-04-01

Chemical signals used in intraspecific communication are expected to evolve or to show phenotipic plasticity to maximize efficacy in the climatic conditions of a given environment. Elevational environmental gradients in mountains provide a good opportunity to test this hypothesis by examining variation in characteristics of signals in species found across different elevations with different climatic conditions. We analyzed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) the lipophilic fraction of the femoral gland secretions of male lizards Psammodromus algirus (Fam. Lacertidae) from six localities located along a 2200 m elevational gradient at Sierra Nevada Mountains (SE Spain). There was elevational clinal variation in climatic variables, number of femoral pores and in the relative proportions of some classes of compounds (i.e., ethyl esters of fatty acids, waxy esters, and aldehydes) but not others. We discuss how this variation would result in different physicochemical properties of the entire femoral secretion, which might help optimize the efficacy of chemical signals under the particular microclimatic conditions at each elevation.

Quantification of climate tourism potential of Croatia based on measured data and regional modeling.

PubMed

Brosy, Caroline; Zaninovic, Ksenija; Matzarakis, Andreas

2014-08-01

Tourism is one of the most important economic sectors in Croatia. The Adriatic coast is a popular travel destination for tourists, especially during the summer months. During their activities, tourists are affected by atmospheric conditions and therefore by weather and climate. Therefore, it is important to have reliable information about thermal conditions as well as their impacts on human beings. Here, the climate tourism potential of Croatia is presented and quantified on the basis of three selected stations in different climatic regions. The physiologically equivalent temperature is used for analysis as well as other climatic parameters relevant for tourism and recreation. The results already point to hot conditions for outdoor activities in summer during afternoons, especially along the coast but also for continental regions, resulting in a reduction of the climate tourism potential. In the future, this trend looks set to increase, possibly leading to a changing tourism sector in Croatia requiring adaptation and new strategies.

Vegetation and climate variability in tropical and subtropical South America during the late Quaternary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behling, H.

2013-05-01

Detailed palynological studies from different ecosystems in tropical and subtropical South America reflect interesting vegetation and climate dynamics, in particular during glacial and late glacial times. Records from ecosystems such as the Amazon rainforest, savanna, Caatinga, Atlantic rainforest, Araucaria forest and grasslands provide interesting insight of past climate variability. The influence of events such as Dansgaard-Oeschger, Heinnrich stadials, changes in the thermohaline circulation (THC) will be discussed. In particular the Younger Dryas (YD) period shows at different places distinct vegetational changes, revealing unexpected past climatic conditions.

Climate change and wetland loss impacts on a Western river's water quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Records, R. M.; Arabi, M.; Fassnacht, S. R.; Duffy, W. G.; Ahmadi, M.; Hegewisch, K. C.

2014-05-01

An understanding of potential stream water quality conditions under future climate is critical for the sustainability of ecosystems and protection of human health. Changes in wetland water balance under projected climate could alter wetland extent or cause wetland loss. This study assessed the potential climate-induced changes to in-stream sediment and nutrients loads in the historically snow melt-dominated Sprague River, Oregon, Western United States. Additionally, potential water quality impacts of combined changes in wetland water balance and wetland area under future climatic conditions were evaluated. The study utilized the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) forced with statistical downscaling of general circulation model (GCM) data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) using the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) method. Our findings suggest that in the Sprague River (1) mid-21st century nutrient and sediment loads could increase significantly during the high flow season under warmer-wetter climate projections, or could change only nominally in a warmer and somewhat drier future; (2) although water quality conditions under some future climate scenarios and no wetland loss may be similar to the past, the combined impact of climate change and wetland losses on nutrient loads could be large; (3) increases in stream total phosphorus (TP) concentration with wetland loss under future climate scenarios would be greatest at high-magnitude, low-probability flows; and (4) loss of riparian wetlands in both headwaters and lowlands could increase outlet TP loads to a similar degree, but this could be due to distinctly different mechanisms in different parts of the watershed.

Past climates primary productivity changes in the Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Mézo, P. K.; Kageyama, M.; Bopp, L.; Beaufort, L.; Braconnot, P.; Bassinot, F. C.

2016-02-01

Organic climate recorders, e.g., coccolithophorids and foraminifera, are widely used to reconstruct past climate conditions, such as the Indian monsoon intensity and variability, since they are sensitive to climate-induced fluctuations of their environment. In the Indian Ocean, it is commonly accepted that a stronger summer monsoon will enhance productivity in the Arabian Sea and therefore the amount of organisms in a sediment core should reflect monsoon intensity. In this study, we use the coupled Earth System Model IPSLCM5A, which has a biogeochemical component PISCES that simulates primary production. We use 8 climate simulations of the IPSL-CM5A model, from -72kyr BP climate conditions to a preindustrial state. Our simulations have different orbital forcing (precession, obliquity and eccentricity), greenhouse gas concentrations as well as different ice sheet covers. The objective of this work is to characterize the mechanisms behind the changes in primary productivity between the different time periods. Our model shows that in climates where monsoon is enhanced (due to changes in precession) we do not necessarily see an increase in summer productivity in the Arabian Sea, and inversely. It seems that the glacial-interglacial state of the simulation is important in driving productivity changes in this region of the world. We try to explain the changes in productivity in the Arabian Sea with the local climate and then to link the changes in local climate to large scale atmospheric forcing and commonly used Indian monsoon definitions.

[Organizational climate and burnout syndrome].

PubMed

Lubrańska, Anna

2011-01-01

The paper addresses the issue of organizational climate and burnout syndrome. It has been assumed that burnout syndrome is dependent on work climate (organizational climate), therefore, two concepts were analyzed: by D. Kolb (organizational climate) and by Ch. Maslach (burnout syndrome). The research involved 239 persons (122 woman, 117 men), aged 21-66. In the study Maslach Burnout Inventory (MBI) and Inventory of Organizational Climate were used. The results of statistical methods (correlation analysis, one-variable analysis of variance and regression analysis) evidenced a strong relationship between organizational climate and burnout dimension. As depicted by the results, there are important differences in the level of burnout between the study participants who work in different types of organizational climate. The results of the statistical analyses indicate that the organizational climate determines burnout syndrome. Therefore, creating supportive conditions at the workplace might reduce the risk of burnout.

The effects of climate change on heating energy consumption of office buildings in different climate zones in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, Fanchao; Li, Mingcai; Cao, Jingfu; Li, Ji; Xiong, Mingming; Feng, Xiaomei; Ren, Guoyu

2017-06-01

Climate plays an important role in heating energy consumption owing to the direct relationship between space heating and changes in meteorological conditions. To quantify the impact, the Transient System Simulation Program software was used to simulate the heating loads of office buildings in Harbin, Tianjin, and Shanghai, representing three major climate zones (i.e., severe cold, cold, and hot summer and cold winter climate zones) in China during 1961-2010. Stepwise multiple linear regression was performed to determine the key climatic parameters influencing heating energy consumption. The results showed that dry bulb temperature (DBT) is the dominant climatic parameter affecting building heating loads in all three climate zones across China during the heating period at daily, monthly, and yearly scales (R 2 ≥ 0.86). With the continuous warming climate in winter over the past 50 years, heating loads decreased by 14.2, 7.2, and 7.1 W/m2 in Harbin, Tianjin, and Shanghai, respectively, indicating that the decreasing rate is more apparent in severe cold climate zone. When the DBT increases by 1 °C, the heating loads decrease by 253.1 W/m2 in Harbin, 177.2 W/m2 in Tianjin, and 126.4 W/m2 in Shanghai. These results suggest that the heating energy consumption can be well predicted by the regression models at different temporal scales in different climate conditions owing to the high determination coefficients. In addition, a greater decrease in heating energy consumption in northern severe cold and cold climate zones may efficiently promote the energy saving in these areas with high energy consumption for heating. Particularly, the likely future increase in temperatures should be considered in improving building energy efficiency.

Comparison of winter wheat yield sensitivity to climate variables under irrigated and rain-fed conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Dengpan; Shen, Yanjun; Zhang, He; Moiwo, Juana P.; Qi, Yongqing; Wang, Rende; Pei, Hongwei; Zhang, Yucui; Shen, Huitao

2016-09-01

Crop simulation models provide alternative, less time-consuming, and cost-effective means of determining the sensitivity of crop yield to climate change. In this study, two dynamic mechanistic models, CERES (Crop Environment Resource Synthesis) and APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems Simulator), were used to simulate the yield of wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.) under well irrigated (CFG) and rain-fed (YY) conditions in relation to different climate variables in the North China Plain (NCP). The study tested winter wheat yield sensitivity to different levels of temperature, radiation, precipitation, and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration under CFG and YY conditions at Luancheng Agro-ecosystem Experimental Stations in the NCP. The results from the CERES and APSIM wheat crop models were largely consistent and suggested that changes in climate variables influenced wheat grain yield in the NCP. There was also significant variation in the sensitivity of winter wheat yield to climate variables under different water (CFG and YY) conditions. While a temperature increase of 2°C was the threshold beyond which temperature negatively influenced wheat yield under CFG, a temperature rise exceeding 1°C decreased winter wheat grain yield under YY. A decrease in solar radiation decreased wheat grain yield under both CFG and YY conditions. Although the sensitivity of winter wheat yield to precipitation was small under the CFG, yield decreased significantly with decreasing precipitation under the rainfed YY treatment. The results also suggest that wheat yield under CFG linearly increased by ≈3.5% per 60 ppm (parts per million) increase in CO2 concentration from 380 to 560 ppm, and yield under YY increased linearly by ≈7.0% for the same increase in CO2 concentration.

A longitudinal ecological study of seasonal influenza deaths in relation to climate conditions in the United States from 1999 through 2011.

PubMed

Geier, David A; Kern, Janet K; Geier, Mark R

2018-01-01

Introduction: Influenza is an acute respiratory disease with significant annual global morbidity/mortality. Influenza transmission occurs in distinct seasonal patterns suggesting an importance of climate conditions on disease pathogenesis. This hypothesis-testing study evaluated microenvironment conditions within different demographic/geographical groups on seasonal influenza deaths in the United States. Materials and methods: The United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Wonder online computer interface was utilized to integrate and analyze potential correlations in data generated from 1999 through 2011 for climate conditions of mean daily sunlight (KJ/m 2 ), mean daily maximum air temperature ( o C), mean daily minimum air temperature ( o C), and mean daily precipitation (mm) from the North America Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) database and on influenza mortality (ICD-10 codes:J09, J10, or J11) from the Underlying Cause of Death database. Results and discussion: Significant inverse correlations between the climate conditions of temperature, sunlight, and precipitation and seasonal influenza death rate were observed. Similar effects were observed among males and females, but when the data were separated by race and urbanization status significant differences were observed. Conclusion: This study highlights key factors that can help shape public health policy to deal with seasonal influenza in the United States and beyond.

Understanding the past to interpret the future: Comparison of simulated groundwater recharge in the upper Colorado River basin (USA) using observed and general-circulation-model historical climate data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tillman, Fred D.; Gangopadhyay, Subhrendu; Pruitt, Tom

2017-01-01

In evaluating potential impacts of climate change on water resources, water managers seek to understand how future conditions may differ from the recent past. Studies of climate impacts on groundwater recharge often compare simulated recharge from future and historical time periods on an average monthly or overall average annual basis, or compare average recharge from future decades to that from a single recent decade. Baseline historical recharge estimates, which are compared with future conditions, are often from simulations using observed historical climate data. Comparison of average monthly results, average annual results, or even averaging over selected historical decades, may mask the true variability in historical results and lead to misinterpretation of future conditions. Comparison of future recharge results simulated using general circulation model (GCM) climate data to recharge results simulated using actual historical climate data may also result in an incomplete understanding of the likelihood of future changes. In this study, groundwater recharge is estimated in the upper Colorado River basin, USA, using a distributed-parameter soil-water balance groundwater recharge model for the period 1951–2010. Recharge simulations are performed using precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature data from observed climate data and from 97 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5) projections. Results indicate that average monthly and average annual simulated recharge are similar using observed and GCM climate data. However, 10-year moving-average recharge results show substantial differences between observed and simulated climate data, particularly during period 1970–2000, with much greater variability seen for results using observed climate data.

Characteristics of the Different Modes of Walking and Hiking Conditions to Optimize the Movement of Tourists in the Desert

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Imangulova, Tatiyana; Makogonov, Aleksandr; Kulakhmetova, Gulbaram; Sardarov, Osman

2016-01-01

The development of desert areas in the industrial and tourist and educational purposes related to the implementation of physical activity in extreme conditions. A complex set of hot climate causes the body deep adaptive adjustment, impact on health, human physical performance. Optimization of physical activity in hot climates is of particular…

Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on the Water Balances and Flooding Conditions of Peninsular Malaysia watersheds by a Coupled Numerical Climate Model - Watershed Hydrology Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ercan, A.; Kavvas, M. L.; Ishida, K.; Chen, Z. Q.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

2017-12-01

Impacts of climate change on the hydrologic processes under future climate change conditions were assessed over various watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate and physically-based hydrology model that utilized an ensemble of future climate change projections. An ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations from coarse resolution global climate models' (GCMs) projections for the 21st century were dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over Peninsular Malaysia by a regional numerical climate model, which was then coupled with the watershed hydrology model WEHY through the atmospheric boundary layer over the selected watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia. Hydrologic simulations were carried out at hourly increments and at hillslope-scale in order to assess the impacts of climate change on the water balances and flooding conditions at the selected watersheds during the 21st century. The coupled regional climate and hydrology model was simulated for a duration of 90 years for each of the 15 realizations. It is demonstrated that the increase in mean monthly flows due to the impact of expected climate change during 2040-2100 is statistically significant at the selected watersheds. Furthermore, the flood frequency analyses for the selected watersheds indicate an overall increasing trend in the second half of the 21st century.

Effect of different home-cooking methods on textural and nutritional properties of sweet potato genotypes grown in temperate climate conditions.

PubMed

Nicoletto, Carlo; Vianello, Fabio; Sambo, Paolo

2018-01-01

The European Union (EU) market for sweet potato is small but is growing considerably and and has increased by 100% over the last 5 years. The cultivation of sweet potato in temperate climate conditions has not considered extensively and could be a new opportunity for the EU market. Healthy and qualitative traits of different sweet potato cultivars grown in temperate climate conditions were evaluated in accordance with four cooking methods. Traditional cultivars showed high hardness and adhesiveness values. The highest concentrations of sugars (especially maltose) and phenolic acids (caffeic and chlorogenic) were found in samples treated by boiling and steaming. High antioxidant activity was found in fried potatoes. Qualitative traits of sweet potatoes treated by microwaves did not report any significant variation compared to the control. Traditional and new sweet potato cultivars can be cultivated in temperate climate conditions and show interesting qualitative properties, especially as a result of the presence of antioxidant compounds. Concerning global quality, colored varieties expressed a better profile than traditional Italian ones and they are suitable for the European market, giving new opportunities for consumers and producers. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

Carbon sequestration in managed temperate coniferous forests under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dymond, Caren C.; Beukema, Sarah; Nitschke, Craig R.; Coates, K. David; Scheller, Robert M.

2016-03-01

Management of temperate forests has the potential to increase carbon sinks and mitigate climate change. However, those opportunities may be confounded by negative climate change impacts. We therefore need a better understanding of climate change alterations to temperate forest carbon dynamics before developing mitigation strategies. The purpose of this project was to investigate the interactions of species composition, fire, management, and climate change in the Copper-Pine Creek valley, a temperate coniferous forest with a wide range of growing conditions. To do so, we used the LANDIS-II modelling framework including the new Forest Carbon Succession extension to simulate forest ecosystems under four different productivity scenarios, with and without climate change effects, until 2050. Significantly, the new extension allowed us to calculate the net sector productivity, a carbon accounting metric that integrates aboveground and belowground carbon dynamics, disturbances, and the eventual fate of forest products. The model output was validated against literature values. The results implied that the species optimum growing conditions relative to current and future conditions strongly influenced future carbon dynamics. Warmer growing conditions led to increased carbon sinks and storage in the colder and wetter ecoregions but not necessarily in the others. Climate change impacts varied among species and site conditions, and this indicates that both of these components need to be taken into account when considering climate change mitigation activities and adaptive management. The introduction of a new carbon indicator, net sector productivity, promises to be useful in assessing management effectiveness and mitigation activities.

Middle Pliocene vegetation: Reconstructions, paleoclimatic inferences, and boundary conditions for climate modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, R.S.; Fleming, R.F.

1996-01-01

The general characteristics of global vegetation during the middle Pliocene warm period can be reconstructed from fossil pollen and plant megafossil data. The largest differences between Pliocene vegetation and that of today occurred at high latitudes in both hemispheres, where warming was pronounced relative to today. In the Northern Hemisphere coniferous forests lived in the modern tundra and polar desert regions, whereas in the Southern Hemisphere southern beech apparently grew in coastal areas of Antarctica. Pliocene middle latitude vegetation differed less, although moister-than-modern conditions supported forest and woodland growth in some regions now covered by steppe or grassland. Pliocene tropical vegetation reflects essentially modern conditions in some regions and slightly cooler-than-or warmer-than- modern climates in other areas. Changes in topography induced by tectonics may be responsible for many of the climatic changes since the Pliocene in both middle and lower latitudes. However, the overall latitudinal progression of climatic conditions on land parallels that seen in the reconstruction of middle Pliocene sea-surface temperatures. Pliocene paleovegetational data was employed to construct a 2????2?? global grid of estimated mid-Pliocene vegetational cover for use as boundary conditions for numerical General Circulation Model simulations of middle Pliocene climates. Continental outlines and topography were first modified to represent the Pliocene landscape on the 2????2?? grid. A modern 1????1?? vegetation grid was simplified and mapped on this Pliocene grid, and then modified following general geographic trends evident in the Pliocene paleovegetation data set.

Rural perspectives of climate change: a study from Saurastra and Kutch of Western India.

PubMed

Moghariya, Dineshkumar P; Smardon, Richard C

2014-08-01

This research reports on rural people's beliefs and understandings of climate change in the Saurastra/ Kutch region of Western India. Results suggest that although most rural respondents have not heard about the scientific concept of climate change, they have detected changes in the climate. They appear to hold divergent understandings about climate change and have different priorities for causes and solutions. Many respondents appear to base their understandings of climate change upon a mix of ideas drawn from various sources and rely on different kinds of reasoning in relation to both causes of and solutions to climate change to those used by scientists. Environmental conditions were found to influence individuals' understanding of climate change, while demographic factors were not. The results suggest a need to learn more about people's conceptual models and understandings of climate change and a need to include local climate research in communication efforts.

Climate impacts on human livelihoods at 1.5° and 2° of warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lissner, Tabea

2017-04-01

The measurement of impacts of climate change on socio-economic systems remains challenging and especially multi-dimensional outcome measures remain scarce. Climate impacts can directly affect many dimensions of human livelihoods, which cannot be addressed by monetary assessments alone. Multi-dimensional measures are essential in order to understand the full range of consequences of climate change and to understand the costs that higher levels of warming may have, not only in economic terms, but also in terms of non-market impacts on human livelihood. The AHEAD framework aims at measuring "Adequate Human livelihood conditions for wEll-being And Development" in a multi-dimensional framework, allowing to focus on resources and conditions which are a requirement to attain well-being. In this contribution we build on previous implementations of AHEAD and focus on differences in climate impacts at 1.5° and 2° of warming in order to improve our understanding of the societal consequences of these different warming levels.

Analysis of different adsorption heat transformation applications and working pairs for climatic regions of Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grekova, A. D.; Gordeeva, L. G.

2018-04-01

Adsorption heat transformation is an energy and environment saving technology for cooling/heating driven by renewable energy sources. Each specific cycle of adsorption heat transformer (AHT) makes particular requirements to the properties of the sorption material, depending on the climatic zone in which the AHT is used, the type of application (cooling, heating and heat storage), and energy source used for regenerating the sorbent. Therefore, the effective operation of AHT can be realized only if the working pair "adsorbent-adsorbate" is intelligently selected in accordance with the requirements of a particular working cycle. One of the most important factors influencing the choice of a working pair is the climatic conditions in which the AHT will operate. In this paper, the climatic conditions of various regions of Russian Federation (RF) were analyzed. For each considered zone, the boundary potentials of Polanyi corresponding to different AHT cycles are calculated. The sorption equilibrium data of various sorbents with water and methanol presented in the literature are summarized, and characteristic sorption curves are plotted in coordinates "sorption - the Polanyi potential". The characteristic adsorption curves found are approximated by analytic expressions, which allow the analysis of working pairs applicability for different AHT cycles. The recommendations of using the discussed sorption pairs under conditions of determined climatic zones are given for the AHT applications.

Connecting today's climates to future climate analogs to facilitate movement of species under climate change.

PubMed

Littlefield, Caitlin E; McRae, Brad H; Michalak, Julia L; Lawler, Joshua J; Carroll, Carlos

2017-12-01

Increasing connectivity is an important strategy for facilitating species range shifts and maintaining biodiversity in the face of climate change. To date, however, few researchers have included future climate projections in efforts to prioritize areas for increasing connectivity. We identified key areas likely to facilitate climate-induced species' movement across western North America. Using historical climate data sets and future climate projections, we mapped potential species' movement routes that link current climate conditions to analogous climate conditions in the future (i.e., future climate analogs) with a novel moving-window analysis based on electrical circuit theory. In addition to tracing shifting climates, the approach accounted for landscape permeability and empirically derived species' dispersal capabilities. We compared connectivity maps generated with our climate-change-informed approach with maps of connectivity based solely on the degree of human modification of the landscape. Including future climate projections in connectivity models substantially shifted and constrained priority areas for movement to a smaller proportion of the landscape than when climate projections were not considered. Potential movement, measured as current flow, decreased in all ecoregions when climate projections were included, particularly when dispersal was limited, which made climate analogs inaccessible. Many areas emerged as important for connectivity only when climate change was modeled in 2 time steps rather than in a single time step. Our results illustrate that movement routes needed to track changing climatic conditions may differ from those that connect present-day landscapes. Incorporating future climate projections into connectivity modeling is an important step toward facilitating successful species movement and population persistence in a changing climate. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

How to reduce long-term drift in present-day and deep-time simulations?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brunetti, Maura; Vérard, Christian

2018-06-01

Climate models are often affected by long-term drift that is revealed by the evolution of global variables such as the ocean temperature or the surface air temperature. This spurious trend reduces the fidelity to initial conditions and has a great influence on the equilibrium climate after long simulation times. Useful insight on the nature of the climate drift can be obtained using two global metrics, i.e. the energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere and at the ocean surface. The former is an indicator of the limitations within a given climate model, at the level of both numerical implementation and physical parameterisations, while the latter is an indicator of the goodness of the tuning procedure. Using the MIT general circulation model, we construct different configurations with various degree of complexity (i.e. different parameterisations for the bulk cloud albedo, inclusion or not of friction heating, different bathymetry configurations) to which we apply the same tuning procedure in order to obtain control runs for fixed external forcing where the climate drift is minimised. We find that the interplay between tuning procedure and different configurations of the same climate model provides crucial information on the stability of the control runs and on the goodness of a given parameterisation. This approach is particularly relevant for constructing good-quality control runs of the geological past where huge uncertainties are found in both initial and boundary conditions. We will focus on robust results that can be generally applied to other climate models.

Messages promoting genetic modification of crops in the context of climate change: Evidence for psychological reactance.

PubMed

Lu, Hang; McComas, Katherine A; Besley, John C

2017-01-01

Genetic modification (GM) of crops and climate change are arguably two of today's most challenging science communication issues. Increasingly, these two issues are connected in messages proposing GM as a viable option for ensuring global food security threatened by climate change. This study examines the effects of messages promoting the benefits of GM in the context of climate change. Further, it examines whether explicit reference to "climate change," or "global warming" in a GM message results in different effects than each other, or an implicit climate reference. An online sample of U.S. participants (N = 1050) were randomly assigned to one of four conditions: "climate change" cue, "global warming" cue, implicit cue, or control (no message). Generally speaking, framing GM crops as a way to help ensure global food security proved to be an effective messaging strategy in increasing positive attitudes toward GM. In addition, the implicit cue condition led to liberals having more positive attitudes and behavioral intentions toward GM than the "climate change" cue condition, an effect mediated by message evaluations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Groundwater recharge simulation under the steady-state and transient climate conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pozdniakov, S.; Lykhina, N.

2010-03-01

Groundwater recharge simulation under the steady-state and transient climate conditions Diffusive groundwater recharge is a vertical water flux through the water table, i.e. through the boundary between the unsaturated and saturated zones. This flux features temporal and spatial changes due to variations in the climatic conditions, landscape the state of vegetation, and the spatial variability of vadoze zone characteristics. In a changing climate the non-steady state series of climatic characteristics will affect on the groundwater recharge.. A well-tested approach to calculating water flux through the vadoze zone is the application of Richard’s equations for a heterogeneous one-domain porosity continuum with specially formulated atmospheric boundary conditions at the ground surface. In this approach the climatic parameters are reflected in upper boundary conditions, while the recharge series is the flux through the low boundary. In this work developed by authors code Surfbal that simulates water cycle at surface of topsoil to take into account the various condition of precipitation transformation at the surface in different seasons under different vegetation cover including snow accumulation in winter and melting in spring is used to generate upper boundary condition at surface of topsoil for world-wide known Hydrus-1D code (Simunek et al, 2008). To estimate the proposal climate change effect we performed Surfbal and Hydrus simulation using the steady state climatic condition and transient condition due to global warming on example of Moscow region, Russia. The following scenario of climate change in 21 century in Moscow region was selected: the annual temperature will increase on 4C during 100 year and annual precipitation will increase on 10% (Solomon et al, 2007). Within the year the maximum increasing of temperature and precipitation falls on winter time, while in middle of summer temperature will remain almost the same as observed now and monthly precipitation. For simulating climate input the weather generator LARSWG (Semenov and Barrow 1997) was trained for generation daily meteorological records for both steady state and transient climatic conditions and two 100 year of meteorological series of minimum and maximum of air temperature, solar radiation and precipitation were generated. The numerical experiment for studying of transient climate on groundwater was performed for typical vadoze zone parameters of western part of Moscow Artesian basin. As the result, the 100 years series of recharge were simulated. Examination of stochastic properties of simulated time-series and comparative analysis series for the transient and for the steady state conditions shows the trend of increasing of recharge in this region in transient climate. Analysis of daily and monthly simulated water balance shows that this increasing is result of winter snow melting and winter infiltration into thaw topsoil. This work was supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research via grant 08-05-00720a REFERENCES Semenov M.A and Barrow E.M., 1997. Use of a stochastic weather generator in the development of climate change scenarios. Climatic Change, 35:397-414 Šimůnek, J., M. Th. van Genuchten, and M. Šejna, 2008. Development and applications of the HYDRUS and STANMOD software packages, and related codes, Vadose Zone Journal, doi:10.2136/VZJ2007.0077, Special Issue "Vadose Zone Modeling", 7(2), 587-600. Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Technical Summary. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

Cluster of the Technische Universität Dresden for greenhouse gas and water fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moderow, Uta; Eichelmann, Uwe; Grünwald, Thomas; Prasse, Heiko; Queck, Ronald; Spank, Uwe; Bernhofer, Christian

2017-04-01

How different land uses change CO2-fluxes under similar climatic conditions is a core question concerning the estimation of carbon sinks. Here, the TUD-cluster forms an excellent basis since it provides long-term measurements of Eddy-Covariance fluxes for different land uses. Measurements started at the Anchor Station Tharandter Wald (Spruce) in 1996. Since then the TUD-cluster has been successively complemented by continuous greenhouse gas flux observatories at Grillenburg (grassland), Klingenberg (crop rotation) and Spreewald (wetland), which have been operated since 2002, 2004 and 2010. The results of the TUD-cluster have been shared internationally in research frameworks such as EUROFLUX and subsequent research frameworks and is now part of ICOS-D (Integrated Carbon Observation System), the German branch to ICOS Europe. This contribution focuses on the presentation of the different sites with comparatively similar climatic conditions but different CO2-fluxes, water fluxes and energy fluxes. Influences of management and climatic conditions will be shown which are apparent in long-term data as well as interesting aspects of distinct land uses.

Crop Yield Simulations Using Multiple Regional Climate Models in the Southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stack, D.; Kafatos, M.; Kim, S.; Kim, J.; Walko, R. L.

2013-12-01

Agricultural productivity (described by crop yield) is strongly dependent on climate conditions determined by meteorological parameters (e.g., temperature, rainfall, and solar radiation). California is the largest producer of agricultural products in the United States, but crops in associated arid and semi-arid regions live near their physiological limits (e.g., in hot summer conditions with little precipitation). Thus, accurate climate data are essential in assessing the impact of climate variability on agricultural productivity in the Southwestern United States and other arid regions. To address this issue, we produced simulated climate datasets and used them as input for the crop production model. For climate data, we employed two different regional climate models (WRF and OLAM) using a fine-resolution (8km) grid. Performances of the two different models are evaluated in a fine-resolution regional climate hindcast experiment for 10 years from 2001 to 2010 by comparing them to the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) dataset. Based on this comparison, multi-model ensembles with variable weighting are used to alleviate model bias and improve the accuracy of crop model productivity over large geographic regions (county and state). Finally, by using a specific crop-yield simulation model (APSIM) in conjunction with meteorological forcings from the multi-regional climate model ensemble, we demonstrate the degree to which maize yields are sensitive to the regional climate in the Southwestern United States.

Comparative study of air-conditioning energy use of four office buildings in China and USA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Xin; Yan, Da; An, Jingjing

Energy use in buildings has great variability. In order to design and operate low energy buildings as well as to establish building energy codes and standards and effective energy policy, it is crucial to understand and quantify key factors influencing building energy performance. Here, this study investigates air-conditioning (AC) energy use of four office buildings in four locations: Beijing, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Berkeley. Building simulation was employed to quantify the influences of key factors, including climate, building envelope and occupant behavior. Through simulation of various combinations of the three influencing elements, it is found that climate can lead tomore » AC cooling consumption differences by almost two times, while occupant behavior resulted in the greatest differences (of up to three times) in AC cooling consumption. The influence of occupant behavior on AC energy consumption is not homogeneous. Under similar climates, when the occupant behavior in the building differed, the optimized building envelope design also differed. In conclusion, the optimal building envelope should be determined according to the climate as well as the occupants who use the building.« less

Comparative study of air-conditioning energy use of four office buildings in China and USA

DOE PAGES

Zhou, Xin; Yan, Da; An, Jingjing; ...

2018-04-05

Energy use in buildings has great variability. In order to design and operate low energy buildings as well as to establish building energy codes and standards and effective energy policy, it is crucial to understand and quantify key factors influencing building energy performance. Here, this study investigates air-conditioning (AC) energy use of four office buildings in four locations: Beijing, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Berkeley. Building simulation was employed to quantify the influences of key factors, including climate, building envelope and occupant behavior. Through simulation of various combinations of the three influencing elements, it is found that climate can lead tomore » AC cooling consumption differences by almost two times, while occupant behavior resulted in the greatest differences (of up to three times) in AC cooling consumption. The influence of occupant behavior on AC energy consumption is not homogeneous. Under similar climates, when the occupant behavior in the building differed, the optimized building envelope design also differed. In conclusion, the optimal building envelope should be determined according to the climate as well as the occupants who use the building.« less

Metapopulation dynamics in a changing climate: Increasing spatial synchrony in weather conditions drives metapopulation synchrony of a butterfly inhabiting a fragmented landscape.

PubMed

Kahilainen, Aapo; van Nouhuys, Saskya; Schulz, Torsti; Saastamoinen, Marjo

2018-04-23

Habitat fragmentation and climate change are both prominent manifestations of global change, but there is little knowledge on the specific mechanisms of how climate change may modify the effects of habitat fragmentation, for example, by altering dynamics of spatially structured populations. The long-term viability of metapopulations is dependent on independent dynamics of local populations, because it mitigates fluctuations in the size of the metapopulation as a whole. Metapopulation viability will be compromised if climate change increases spatial synchrony in weather conditions associated with population growth rates. We studied a recently reported increase in metapopulation synchrony of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) in the Finnish archipelago, to see if it could be explained by an increase in synchrony of weather conditions. For this, we used 23 years of butterfly survey data together with monthly weather records for the same period. We first examined the associations between population growth rates within different regions of the metapopulation and weather conditions during different life-history stages of the butterfly. We then examined the association between the trends in the synchrony of the weather conditions and the synchrony of the butterfly metapopulation dynamics. We found that precipitation from spring to late summer are associated with the M. cinxia per capita growth rate, with early summer conditions being most important. We further found that the increase in metapopulation synchrony is paralleled by an increase in the synchrony of weather conditions. Alternative explanations for spatial synchrony, such as increased dispersal or trophic interactions with a specialist parasitoid, did not show paralleled trends and are not supported. The climate driven increase in M. cinxia metapopulation synchrony suggests that climate change can increase extinction risk of spatially structured populations living in fragmented landscapes by altering their dynamics. © 2018 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Recent range expansion of a terrestrial orchid corresponds with climate-driven variation in its population dynamics.

PubMed

van der Meer, Sascha; Jacquemyn, Hans; Carey, Peter D; Jongejans, Eelke

2016-06-01

The population dynamics and distribution limits of plant species are predicted to change as the climate changes. However, it remains unclear to what extent climate variables affect population dynamics, which vital rates are most sensitive to climate change, and whether the same vital rates drive population dynamics in different populations. In this study, we used long-term demographic data from two populations of the terrestrial orchid Himantoglossum hircinum growing at the northern edge of their geographic range to quantify the influence of climate change on demographic vital rates. Integral projection models were constructed to study how climate conditions between 1991 and 2006 affected population dynamics and to assess how projected future climate change will affect the long-term viability of this species. Based on the parameterised vital rate functions and the observed climatic conditions, one of the studied populations had an average population growth rate above 1 (λ = 1.04), while the other was declining at ca. 3 % year(-1) (λ = 0.97). Variation in temperature and precipitation mainly affected population growth through their effect on survival and fecundity. Based on UK Climate Projection 2009 estimates of future climate conditions for three greenhouse gas emission scenarios, population growth rates are expected to increase in one of the studied populations. Overall, our results indicate that the observed changes in climatic conditions appeared to be beneficial to the long-term survival of the species in the UK and suggest that they may have been the driving force behind the current range expansion of H. hircinum in England.

Climate-induced seasonal changes in smallmouth bass growth rate potential at the southern range extent

USGS Publications Warehouse

Middaugh, Christopher R.; Kessinger, Brin; Magoulick, Daniel D.

2018-01-01

Temperature increases due to climate change over the coming century will likely affect smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) growth in lotic systems at the southern extent of their native range. However, the thermal response of a stream to warming climate conditions could be affected by the flow regime of each stream, mitigating the effects on smallmouth bass populations. We developed bioenergetics models to compare change in smallmouth bass growth rate potential (GRP) from present to future projected monthly stream temperatures across two flow regimes: runoff and groundwater-dominated. Seasonal differences in GRP between stream types were then compared. The models were developed for fourteen streams within the Ozark–Ouachita Interior Highlands in Arkansas, Oklahoma and Missouri, USA, which contain smallmouth bass. In our simulations, smallmouth bass mean GRP during summer months decreased by 0.005 g g−1 day−1 in runoff streams and 0.002 g g−1 day−1 in groundwater streams by the end of century. Mean GRP during winter, fall and early spring increased under future climate conditions within both stream types (e.g., 0.00019 g g−1 day−1 in runoff and 0.0014 g g−1 day−1 in groundwater streams in spring months). We found significant differences in change in GRP between runoff and groundwater streams in three seasons in end-of-century simulations (spring, summer and fall). Potential differences in stream temperature across flow regimes could be an important habitat component to consider when investigating effects of climate change as fishes from various flow regimes that are relatively close geographically could be affected differently by warming climate conditions.

Peatlands as a unique climatic hotspots

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slowinska, S.; Marcisz, K.; Slowinski, M. M.; Blazejczyk, K.; Lamentowicz, M.

2017-12-01

Peatlands are unique environments, often acting as microrefugia of various taxa. High groundwater table, organic soils, specific vegetation and topography are important determinants of their local climatic conditions. However, relations between those determinants are not stable. For example, seasonal changes in weather patterns, hydrological dynamics, and local vegetation may alter microclimate. Additionally, long-term changes are important factor, as for example overgrowing due to significant change of microclimate conditions, what in turn changes geochemical and biological processes in the peat layer. We have been investigating interactions between abiotic and biotic factors of a small Sphagnum mire (ca. 6.0 ha) for over ten years now. The mire is located in Poland in transitional temperate climate and is the only place in polish lowlands where glacial relict Betula nana occurs. Identification of local climate of the mire, its microclimatic differentiation and its influence on surroundings were objectives of the study. We recorded water level fluctuations, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), air temperature and humidity, and peat temperature at five monitoring plots at the mire and observed significant differences between them. We also investigated Sphagnum mosses growth and testate amoeba diversity and community structure to understand biological response of those differences. We observed that local climate of the mire was significantly different from open area reference place, it was much colder especially during nights. The average minimal temperature at the height 30 cm for growing seasons 2010-2012 was 3.7oC lower there and ground frosts occurred even in the summer. The climate of the mire affected the forest directly adjacent to it, and depending on weather conditions the strength and the distance of this interaction was different. Our results show that micro-environmental changes affects on biological processes and should be taken into consideration in palaeoecological investigations.

Simulating the Risk of Liver Fluke Infection using a Mechanistic Hydro-epidemiological Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beltrame, Ludovica; Dunne, Toby; Rose, Hannah; Walker, Josephine; Morgan, Eric; Vickerman, Peter; Wagener, Thorsten

2016-04-01

Liver Fluke (Fasciola hepatica) is a common parasite found in livestock and responsible for considerable economic losses throughout the world. Risk of infection is strongly influenced by climatic and hydrological conditions, which characterise the host environment for parasite development and transmission. Despite on-going control efforts, increases in fluke outbreaks have been reported in recent years in the UK, and have been often attributed to climate change. Currently used fluke risk models are based on empirical relationships derived between historical climate and incidence data. However, hydro-climate conditions are becoming increasingly non-stationary due to climate change and direct anthropogenic impacts such as land use change, making empirical models unsuitable for simulating future risk. In this study we introduce a mechanistic hydro-epidemiological model for Liver Fluke, which explicitly simulates habitat suitability for disease development in space and time, representing the parasite life cycle in connection with key environmental conditions. The model is used to assess patterns of Liver Fluke risk for two catchments in the UK under current and potential future climate conditions. Comparisons are made with a widely used empirical model employing different datasets, including data from regional veterinary laboratories. Results suggest that mechanistic models can achieve adequate predictive ability and support adaptive fluke control strategies under climate change scenarios.

Climatic conditions and child height: Sex-specific vulnerability and the protective effects of sanitation and food markets in Nepal.

PubMed

Mulmi, Prajula; Block, Steven A; Shively, Gerald E; Masters, William A

2016-12-01

Environmental conditions in early life are known to have impacts on later health outcomes, but causal mechanisms and potential remedies have been difficult to discern. This paper uses the Nepal Demographic and Health Surveys of 2006 and 2011, combined with earlier NASA satellite observations of variation in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) at each child's location and time of birth to identify the trimesters of gestation and periods of infancy when climate variation is linked to attained height later in life. We find significant differences by sex: males are most affected by conditions in their second trimester of gestation, and females in the first three months after birth. Each 100-point difference in NDVI at those times is associated with a difference in height-for-age z-score (HAZ) measured at age 12-59 months of 0.088 for boys and 0.054 for girls, an effect size similar to that of moving within the distribution of household wealth by close to one quintile for boys and one decile for girls. The entire seasonal change in NDVI from peak to trough is approximately 200-300 points during the 2000-2011 study period, implying a seasonal effect on HAZ similar to one to three quintiles of household wealth. This effect is observed only in households without toilets; in households with toilets, there is no seasonal fluctuation, implying protection against climatic conditions that facilitate disease transmission. We also use data from the Nepal Living Standards Surveys on district-level agricultural production and marketing, and find a climate effect on child growth only in districts where households' food consumption derives primarily from their own production. Robustness tests find no evidence of selection effects, and placebo regression results reveal no significant artefactual correlations. The timing and sex-specificity of climatic effects are consistent with previous studies, while the protective effects of household sanitation and food markets are novel indications of mechanisms by which households can gain resilience against adverse climatic conditions. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate change impact on North Sea wave conditions: a consistent analysis of ten projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grabemann, Iris; Groll, Nikolaus; Möller, Jens; Weisse, Ralf

2015-02-01

Long-term changes in the mean and extreme wind wave conditions as they may occur in the course of anthropogenic climate change can influence and endanger human coastal and offshore activities. A set of ten wave climate projections derived from time slice and transient simulations of future conditions is analyzed to estimate the possible impact of anthropogenic climate change on mean and extreme wave conditions in the North Sea. This set includes different combinations of IPCC SRES emission scenarios (A2, B2, A1B, and B1), global and regional models, and initial states. A consistent approach is used to provide a more robust assessment of expected changes and uncertainties. While the spatial patterns and the magnitude of the climate change signals vary, some robust features among the ten projections emerge: mean and severe wave heights tend to increase in the eastern parts of the North Sea towards the end of the twenty-first century in nine to ten projections, but the magnitude of the increase in extreme waves varies in the order of decimeters between these projections. For the western parts of the North Sea more than half of the projections suggest a decrease in mean and extreme wave heights. Comparing the different sources of uncertainties due to models, scenarios, and initial conditions, it can be inferred that the influence of the emission scenario on the climate change signal seems to be less important. Furthermore, the transient projections show strong multi-decadal fluctuations, and changes towards the end of the twenty-first century might partly be associated with internal variability rather than with systematic changes.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation is linked to decreased energetic condition in long-distance migrants

USGS Publications Warehouse

Paxton, Kristina L.; Cohen, Emily B.; Paxton, Eben H.; Németh, Zoltan; Moore, Frank R.

2014-01-01

Predicting how migratory animals respond to changing climatic conditions requires knowledge of how climatic events affect each phase of the annual cycle and how those effects carry-over to subsequent phases. We utilized a 17-year migration dataset to examine how El Niño-Southern Oscillation climatic events in geographically different regions of the Western hemisphere carry-over to impact the stopover biology of several intercontinental migratory bird species. We found that migratory birds that over-wintered in South America experienced significantly drier environments during El Niño years, as reflected by reduced Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values, and arrived at stopover sites in reduced energetic condition during spring migration. During El Niño years migrants were also more likely to stopover immediately along the northern Gulf coast of the southeastern U.S. after crossing the Gulf of Mexico in small suboptimal forest patches where food resources are lower and migrant density often greater than larger more contiguous forests further inland. In contrast, NDVI values did not differ between El Niño and La Niña years in Caribbean-Central America, and we found no difference in energetic condition or use of coastal habitats for migrants en route from Caribbean-Central America wintering areas. Birds over-wintering in both regions had consistent median arrival dates along the northern Gulf coast, suggesting that there is a strong drive for birds to maintain their time program regardless of their overall condition. We provide strong evidence that not only is the stopover biology of migratory landbirds influenced by events during the previous phase of their life-cycle, but where migratory birds over-winter determines how vulnerable they are to global climatic cycles. Increased frequency and intensity of ENSO events over the coming decades, as predicted by climatic models, may disproportionately influence long-distance migrants over-wintering in South America.

Probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monier, Erwan; Sokolov, Andrei; Schlosser, Adam; Scott, Jeffery; Gao, Xiang

2013-12-01

We present probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an Earth system model of intermediate complexity with a two-dimensional zonal-mean atmosphere to a human activity model. Regional climate change is obtained by two downscaling methods: a dynamical downscaling, where the IGSM is linked to a three-dimensional atmospheric model, and a statistical downscaling, where a pattern scaling algorithm uses climate change patterns from 17 climate models. This framework allows for four major sources of uncertainty in future projections of regional climate change to be accounted for: emissions projections, climate system parameters (climate sensitivity, strength of aerosol forcing and ocean heat uptake rate), natural variability, and structural uncertainty. The results show that the choice of climate policy and the climate parameters are the largest drivers of uncertainty. We also find that different initial conditions lead to differences in patterns of change as large as when using different climate models. Finally, this analysis reveals the wide range of possible climate change over Northern Eurasia, emphasizing the need to consider these sources of uncertainty when modeling climate impacts over Northern Eurasia.

Ecoclimatic indicators to study crop suitability in present and future climatic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caubel, Julie; Garcia de Cortazar Atauri, Inaki; Huard, Frédéric; Launay, Marie; Ripoche, Dominique; Gouache, David; Bancal, Marie-Odile; Graux, Anne-Isabelle; De Noblet, Nathalie

2013-04-01

Climate change is expected to affect both regional and global food production through changes in overall agroclimatic conditions. It is therefore necessary to develop simple tools of crop suitability diagnosis in a given area so that stakeholders can envisage land use adaptations under climate change conditions. The most common way to investigate potential impacts of climate on the evolution of agrosystems is to make use of an array of agroclimatic indicators, which provide synthetic information derived from climatic variables and calculated within fixed periods (i.e. January first - 31th July). However, the information obtained during these periods does not enable to take account of the plant response to climate. In this work, we present some results of the research program ORACLE (Opportunities and Risks of Agrosystems & forests in response to CLimate, socio-economic and policy changEs in France (and Europe). We proposed a suite of relevant ecoclimatic indicators, based on temperature and rainfall, in order to evaluate crop suitability for both present and new climatic conditions. Ecoclimatic indicators are agroclimatic indicators (e.g., grain heat stress) calculated during specific phenological phases so as to take account of the plant response to climate (e.g., the grain filling period, flowering- harvest). These indicators are linked with the ecophysiological processes they characterize (for e.g., the grain filling). To represent this methodology, we studied the suitability of winter wheat in future climatic conditions through three distinct French sites, Toulouse, Dijon and Versailles. Indicators have been calculated using climatic data from 1950 to 2100 simulated by the global climate model ARPEGE forced by a greenhouse effect corresponding to the SRES A1B scenario. The Quantile-Quantile downscaling method was applied to obtain data for the three locations. Phenological stages (emergence, ear 1 cm, flowering, beginning of grain filling and harvest) have been simulated by the STICS, CERES and PANORAMIX crop models with the same input climatic data. Results showed that phenological stages tend to be reached earlier in the future. Significant differences were noted between indicators calculated for invariable calendar periods and indicators calculated during phenological phases. Therefore, ecoclimatic indicators are relevant to provide accurate information about crop suitability in the context of climate change. Whereas most of the indicators do not indicate any significant changes in the future, plant mortality due to frost risks from emergence to ear 1 cm tends to decrease and water supply tends to be more limiting in the future. These indicators do not replace models but represent additional tools for understanding and spatializing some results obtained by models. Their use can provide a spatial distribution of crops according to their suitability in present or future climatic conditions and enable us to minimize the risk of crop failure. It would be interesting to consider the response uncertainties according to the uncertainties we have in future climatic predictions by using different greenhouse emission scenarios and downscaling methods.

Can we trust climate models to realistically represent severe European windstorms?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trzeciak, Tomasz M.; Knippertz, Peter; Owen, Jennifer S. R.

2014-05-01

Despite the enormous advances made in climate change research, robust projections of the position and the strength of the North Atlantic stormtrack are not yet possible. In particular with respect to damaging windstorms, this incertitude bears enormous risks to European societies and the (re)insurance industry. Previous studies have addressed the problem of climate model uncertainty through statistical comparisons of simulations of the current climate with (re-)analysis data and found that there is large disagreement between different climate models, different ensemble members of the same model and observed climatologies of intense cyclones. One weakness of such statistical evaluations lies in the difficulty to separate influences of the climate model's basic state from the influence of fast processes on the development of the most intense storms. Compensating effects between the two might conceal errors and suggest higher reliability than there really is. A possible way to separate influences of fast and slow processes in climate projections is through a "seamless" approach of hindcasting historical, severe storms with climate models started from predefined initial conditions and run in a numerical weather prediction mode on the time scale of several days. Such a cost-effective case-study approach, which draws from and expands on the concepts from the Transpose-AMIP initiative, has recently been undertaken in the SEAMSEW project at the University of Leeds funded by the AXA Research Fund. Key results from this work focusing on 20 historical storms and using different lead times and horizontal and vertical resolutions include: (a) Tracks are represented reasonably well by most hindcasts. (b) Sensitivity to vertical resolution is low. (c) There is a systematic underprediction of cyclone depth for a coarse resolution of T63, but surprisingly no systematic bias is found for higher-resolution runs using T127, showing that climate models are in fact able to represent the storm dynamics well, if given the correct initial conditions. Combined with a too low number of deep cyclones in many climate models, this points too an insufficient number of storm-prone initial conditions in free-running climate runs. This question will be addressed in future work.

Winter climate limits subantarctic low forest growth and establishment.

PubMed

Harsch, Melanie A; McGlone, Matt S; Wilmshurst, Janet M

2014-01-01

Campbell Island, an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52 °S, 169 °E) is oceanic (Conrad Index of Continentality  =  -5) with small differences between mean summer and winter temperatures. Previous work established the unexpected result that a mean annual climate warming of c. 0.6 °C since the 1940's has not led to upward movement of the forest limit. Here we explore the relative importance of summer and winter climatic conditions on growth and age-class structure of the treeline forming species, Dracophyllum longifolium and Dracophyllum scoparium over the second half of the 20th century. The relationship between climate and growth and establishment were evaluated using standard dendroecological methods and local climate data from a meteorological station on the island. Growth and establishment were correlated against climate variables and further evaluated within hierarchical regression models to take into account the effect of plot level variables. Winter climatic conditions exerted a greater effect on growth and establishment than summer climatic conditions. Establishment is maximized under warm (mean winter temperatures >7 °C), dry winters (total winter precipitation <400 mm). Growth, on the other hand, is adversely affected by wide winter temperature ranges and increased rainfall. The contrasting effect of winter warmth on growth and establishment suggests that winter temperature affects growth and establishment through differing mechanisms. We propose that milder winters enhance survival of seedlings and, therefore, recruitment, but increases metabolic stress on established plants, resulting in lower growth rates. Future winter warming may therefore have complex effects on plant growth and establishment globally.

Winter Climate Limits Subantarctic Low Forest Growth and Establishment

PubMed Central

Harsch, Melanie A.; McGlone, Matt S.; Wilmshurst, Janet M.

2014-01-01

Campbell Island, an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52°S, 169°E) is oceanic (Conrad Index of Continentality  = −5) with small differences between mean summer and winter temperatures. Previous work established the unexpected result that a mean annual climate warming of c. 0.6°C since the 1940's has not led to upward movement of the forest limit. Here we explore the relative importance of summer and winter climatic conditions on growth and age-class structure of the treeline forming species, Dracophyllum longifolium and Dracophyllum scoparium over the second half of the 20th century. The relationship between climate and growth and establishment were evaluated using standard dendroecological methods and local climate data from a meteorological station on the island. Growth and establishment were correlated against climate variables and further evaluated within hierarchical regression models to take into account the effect of plot level variables. Winter climatic conditions exerted a greater effect on growth and establishment than summer climatic conditions. Establishment is maximized under warm (mean winter temperatures >7 °C), dry winters (total winter precipitation <400 mm). Growth, on the other hand, is adversely affected by wide winter temperature ranges and increased rainfall. The contrasting effect of winter warmth on growth and establishment suggests that winter temperature affects growth and establishment through differing mechanisms. We propose that milder winters enhance survival of seedlings and, therefore, recruitment, but increases metabolic stress on established plants, resulting in lower growth rates. Future winter warming may therefore have complex effects on plant growth and establishment globally. PMID:24691026

Reliability of shell carbon isotope composition of different land snail species as a climate proxy: A case study in the monsoon region of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bao, Rui; Sheng, Xuefen; Teng, Henry H.; Ji, Junfeng

2018-05-01

Carbon isotope compositions of land snail shells (δ13Cshell) are shown to be indicative of local climate conditions. However, it is largely unknown how the responses of δ13Cshell to climatic factors changes amongst different species. In this study, we collected 3 species of land snail shells across the East Asian monsoon region of China to explore the overall relationship between δ13Cshell as well as the response of individual species to the regional climate. Results show that, whereas all species collectively can provide a consensus relation between δ13Cshell and local climatic factors such as temperature and precipitation; the response of individual species to the fluctuations of these factors is not uniform. Specifically, while the southerly species Bradybaena similaris exhibits robust δ13Cshell - mean precipitation correlation in both linearity and sensitivity, a common northerly species, Cathaica fasciola, only finds limited utility as a climate indicator, particularly for precipitation. Meanwhile, the south-central species Acusta ravida appears to be able to faithfully record past climate conditions despite showing a wider distribution and a broader habitat. Such species-dependent nature in the relations between δ13Cshell and local climatic factors can be attributed to the effect of ingested carbonate and variations in eco-physiological factors of different species, and is expected to be widespread, suggesting the need to be taken into consideration for future studies.

Results from the BRACE 1.5 study: Climate change impacts of 1.5 C and 2 C warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, B. C.; Anderson, B.; Monaghan, A. J.; Ren, X.; Sanderson, B.; Tebaldi, C.

2017-12-01

In 2015, 195 countries negotiated the Paris Agreement on climate change, which set long-term goals of limiting global mean warming to well below 2 C and possibly 1.5 C. This event stimulated substantial scientific interest in climate outcomes and impacts on society associated with those levels of warming. Recently, the first set of global climate model simulations explicitly designed to meet those targets were undertaken with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) for use by the research community (Sanderson et al, accepted). The BRACE 1.5 project models societal impacts from these climate outcomes, combined with assumptions about future socioeconomic conditions according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. These analyses build on a recently completed study of the Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE), published as a set of 20 papers in Climatic Change, which examined the difference in impacts between two higher scenarios resulting in about 2.5 C and 3.7 C warming by late this century. BRACE 1.5 consists of a set of six papers to be submitted to a special collection in Environmental Research Letters that takes a similar approach but focuses on impacts at 1.5 and 2 C warming. We ask whether impacts differ substantially between the two climate scenarios, accounting for uncertainty in climate outcomes through the use of initial condition ensembles of CESM simulations, and in societal conditions by using alternative SSP-based development pathways. Impact assessment focuses on the health and agricultural sectors; modeling approaches include the use of a global mutli-region CGE model for economic analysis, both a process-based and an empirical crop model, a model of spatial population change, a model of climatic suitability for the aedes aegypti mosquito, and an epidemiological model of heat-related mortality. A methodological analysis also evaluates the use of climate model emulation techniques for providing climate information sufficient to support impact assessment in low warming scenarios.

Tracing the influence of Mediterranean climate on Southeastern Europe during the past 350,000 years

PubMed Central

Obreht, Igor; Zeeden, Christian; Hambach, Ulrich; Veres, Daniel; Marković, Slobodan B.; Bösken, Janina; Svirčev, Zorica; Bačević, Nikola; Gavrilov, Milivoj B.; Lehmkuhl, Frank

2016-01-01

Loess-palaeosol sequences are valuable archives of past environmental changes. Although regional palaeoclimatic trends and conditions in Southeastern Europe have been inferred from loess sequences, large scale forcing mechanisms responsible for their formation have yet to be determined. Southeastern Europe is a climatically sensitive region, existing under the strong influence of both Mediterranean and continental climates. Establishment of the spatial and temporal evolution and interaction of these climatic areas is essential to understand the mechanisms of loess formation. Here we present high-resolution grain-size, environmental magnetic, spectrophotometric and geochemical data from the Stalać section in the Central Balkans (Serbia) for the past ~350,000 years. The goal of this study is to determine the influence of the Mediterranean climate during this period. Data show that the Central Balkans were under different atmospheric circulation regimes, especially during Marine Isotope Stages 9 and 7, while continental climate prevailed further north. We observe a general weakening of the Mediterranean climate influence with time. Our data suggest that Marine Isotope Stage 5 was the first interglacial in the Central Balkans that had continental climate characteristics. This prominent shift in climatic conditions resulted in unexpectedly warm and humid conditions during the last glacial. PMID:27824102

Climate Driven Life Histories: The Case of the Mediterranean Storm Petrel

PubMed Central

Soldatini, Cecilia; Albores-Barajas, Yuri Vladimir; Massa, Bruno; Gimenez, Olivier

2014-01-01

Seabirds are affected by changes in the marine ecosystem. The influence of climatic factors on marine food webs can be reflected in long-term seabird population changes. We modelled the survival and recruitment of the Mediterranean storm petrel (Hydrobates pelagicus melitensis) using a 21-year mark-recapture dataset involving almost 5000 birds. We demonstrated a strong influence of prebreeding climatic conditions on recruitment age and of rainfall and breeding period conditions on juvenile survival. The results suggest that the juvenile survival rate of the Mediterranean subspecies may not be negatively affected by the predicted features of climate change, i.e., warmer summers and lower rainfall. Based on considerations of winter conditions in different parts of the Mediterranean, we were able to draw inferences about the wintering areas of the species for the first time. PMID:24728099

Developing reservoir monthly inflow forecasts using artificial intelligence and climate phenomenon information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Tiantian; Asanjan, Ata Akbari; Welles, Edwin; Gao, Xiaogang; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Liu, Xiaomang

2017-04-01

Reservoirs are fundamental human-built infrastructures that collect, store, and deliver fresh surface water in a timely manner for many purposes. Efficient reservoir operation requires policy makers and operators to understand how reservoir inflows are changing under different hydrological and climatic conditions to enable forecast-informed operations. Over the last decade, the uses of Artificial Intelligence and Data Mining [AI & DM] techniques in assisting reservoir streamflow subseasonal to seasonal forecasts have been increasing. In this study, Random Forest [RF), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Support Vector Regression (SVR) are employed and compared with respect to their capabilities for predicting 1 month-ahead reservoir inflows for two headwater reservoirs in USA and China. Both current and lagged hydrological information and 17 known climate phenomenon indices, i.e., PDO and ENSO, etc., are selected as predictors for simulating reservoir inflows. Results show (1) three methods are capable of providing monthly reservoir inflows with satisfactory statistics; (2) the results obtained by Random Forest have the best statistical performances compared with the other two methods; (3) another advantage of Random Forest algorithm is its capability of interpreting raw model inputs; (4) climate phenomenon indices are useful in assisting monthly or seasonal forecasts of reservoir inflow; and (5) different climate conditions are autocorrelated with up to several months, and the climatic information and their lags are cross correlated with local hydrological conditions in our case studies.

Climate change and wetland loss impacts on a western river's water quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Records, R. M.; Arabi, M.; Fassnacht, S. R.; Duffy, W. G.; Ahmadi, M.; Hegewisch, K. C.

2014-11-01

An understanding of potential stream water quality conditions under future climate is critical for the sustainability of ecosystems and the protection of human health. Changes in wetland water balance under projected climate could alter wetland extent or cause wetland loss (e.g., via increased evapotranspiration and lower growing season flows leading to reduced riparian wetland inundation) or altered land use patterns. This study assessed the potential climate-induced changes to in-stream sediment and nutrient loads in the snowmelt-dominated Sprague River, Oregon, western US. Additionally, potential water quality impacts of combined changes in wetland water balance and wetland area under future climatic conditions were evaluated. The study utilized the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) forced with statistical downscaling of general circulation model (GCM) data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) using the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) method. Our findings suggest that, in the Sprague River, (1) mid-21st century nutrient and sediment loads could increase significantly during the high-flow season under warmer, wetter climate projections or could change only nominally in a warmer and somewhat drier future; (2) although water quality conditions under some future climate scenarios and no wetland loss may be similar to the past, the combined impact of climate change and wetland losses on nutrient loads could be large; (3) increases in stream total phosphorus (TP) concentration with wetland loss under future climate scenarios would be greatest at high-magnitude, low-probability flows; and (4) loss of riparian wetlands in both headwaters and lowlands could increase outlet TP loads to a similar degree, but this could be due to distinctly different mechanisms in different parts of the watershed.

Effects of changing climate on European stream invertebrate communities: A long-term data analysis.

PubMed

Jourdan, Jonas; O'Hara, Robert B; Bottarin, Roberta; Huttunen, Kaisa-Leena; Kuemmerlen, Mathias; Monteith, Don; Muotka, Timo; Ozoliņš, Dāvis; Paavola, Riku; Pilotto, Francesca; Springe, Gunta; Skuja, Agnija; Sundermann, Andrea; Tonkin, Jonathan D; Haase, Peter

2018-04-15

Long-term observations on riverine benthic invertebrate communities enable assessments of the potential impacts of global change on stream ecosystems. Besides increasing average temperatures, many studies predict greater temperature extremes and intense precipitation events as a consequence of climate change. In this study we examined long-term observation data (10-32years) of 26 streams and rivers from four ecoregions in the European Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) network, to investigate invertebrate community responses to changing climatic conditions. We used functional trait and multi-taxonomic analyses and combined examinations of general long-term changes in communities with detailed analyses of the impact of different climatic drivers (i.e., various temperature and precipitation variables) by focusing on the response of communities to climatic conditions of the previous year. Taxa and ecoregions differed substantially in their response to climate change conditions. We did not observe any trend of changes in total taxonomic richness or overall abundance over time or with increasing temperatures, which reflects a compensatory turnover in the composition of communities; sensitive Plecoptera decreased in response to warmer years and Ephemeroptera increased in northern regions. Invasive species increased with an increasing number of extreme days which also caused an apparent upstream community movement. The observed changes in functional feeding group diversity indicate that climate change may be associated with changes in trophic interactions within aquatic food webs. These findings highlight the vulnerability of riverine ecosystems to climate change and emphasize the need to further explore the interactive effects of climate change variables with other local stressors to develop appropriate conservation measures. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A replicated climate change field experiment reveals rapid evolutionary response in an ecologically important soil invertebrate.

PubMed

Bataillon, Thomas; Galtier, Nicolas; Bernard, Aurelien; Cryer, Nicolai; Faivre, Nicolas; Santoni, Sylvain; Severac, Dany; Mikkelsen, Teis N; Larsen, Klaus S; Beier, Claus; Sørensen, Jesper G; Holmstrup, Martin; Ehlers, Bodil K

2016-07-01

Whether species can respond evolutionarily to current climate change is crucial for the persistence of many species. Yet, very few studies have examined genetic responses to climate change in manipulated experiments carried out in natural field conditions. We examined the evolutionary response to climate change in a common annelid worm using a controlled replicated experiment where climatic conditions were manipulated in a natural setting. Analyzing the transcribed genome of 15 local populations, we found that about 12% of the genetic polymorphisms exhibit differences in allele frequencies associated to changes in soil temperature and soil moisture. This shows an evolutionary response to realistic climate change happening over short-time scale, and calls for incorporating evolution into models predicting future response of species to climate change. It also shows that designed climate change experiments coupled with genome sequencing offer great potential to test for the occurrence (or lack) of an evolutionary response. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A climate responsive urban design tool: a platform to improve energy efficiency in a dry hot climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Dallal, Norhan; Visser, Florentine

2017-09-01

In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, new urban developments should address the climatic conditions to improve outdoor comfort and to reduce the energy consumption of buildings. This article describes a design tool that supports climate responsive design for a dry hot climate. The approach takes the climate as an initiator for the conceptual urban form with a more energy-efficient urban morphology. The methodology relates the different passive strategies suitable for major climate conditions in MENA region (dry-hot) to design parameters that create the urban form. This parametric design approach is the basis for a tool that generates conceptual climate responsive urban forms so as to assist the urban designer early in the design process. Various conceptual scenarios, generated by a computational model, are the results of the proposed platform. A practical application of the approach is conducted on a New Urban Community in Aswan (Egypt), showing the economic feasibility of the resulting urban form and morphology, and the proposed tool.

Linking wood anatomy and xylogenesis allows pinpointing of climate and drought influences on growth of coexisting conifers in continental Mediterranean climate.

PubMed

Pacheco, Arturo; Camarero, J Julio; Carrer, Marco

2016-04-01

Forecasted warmer and drier conditions will probably lead to reduced growth rates and decreased carbon fixation in long-term woody pools in drought-prone areas. We therefore need a better understanding of how climate stressors such as drought constrain wood formation and drive changes in wood anatomy. Drying trends could lead to reduced growth if they are more intense in spring, when radial growth rates of conifers in continental Mediterranean climates peak. Since tree species from the aforementioned areas have to endure dry summers and also cold winters, we chose two coexisting species: Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensisMill., Pinaceae) and Spanish juniper (Juniperus thuriferaL., Cupressaceae) (10 randomly selected trees per species), to analyze how growth (tree-ring width) and wood-anatomical traits (lumen transversal area, cell-wall thickness, presence of intra-annual density fluctuations-IADFs-in the latewood) responded to climatic variables (minimum and maximum temperatures, precipitation, soil moisture deficit) calculated for different time intervals. Tree-ring width and mean lumen area showed similar year-to-year variability, which indicates that they encoded similar climatic signals. Wet and cool late-winter to early-spring conditions increased lumen area expansion, particularly in pine. In juniper, cell-wall thickness increased when early summer conditions became drier and the frequency of latewood IADFs increased in parallel with late-summer to early-autumn wet conditions. Thus, latewood IADFs of the juniper capture increased water availability during the late growing season, which is reflected in larger tracheid lumens. Soil water availability was one of the main drivers of wood formation and radial growth for the two species. These analyses allow long-term (several decades) growth and wood-anatomical responses to climate to be inferred at intra-annual scales, which agree with the growing patterns already described by xylogenesis approaches for the same species. A plastic bimodal growth behavior, driven by dry summer conditions, is coherent with the presented wood-anatomical data. The different wood-anatomical responses to drought stress are observed as IADFs with contrasting characteristics and responses to climate. These different responses suggest distinct capacities to access soil water between the two conifer species. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The Social Impact of Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsiang, S. M.

2013-12-01

Managing climate change requires that we understand the social value of climate-related decisions. Rational decision-making demands that we weigh the potential benefits of climate-related investments against their costs. To date, it has been challenging to quantify the relative social benefit of living under different climatic conditions, so policy debates tend to focus on investment costs without considering their benefits. Here I will discuss challenges and advances in the measurement of climate's impact on society. By linking data and methods across physical and social sciences, we are beginning to understand when, where, and how climatic conditions have a causal impact on human wellbeing. I will present examples from this burgeoning interdisciplinary field that quantify the effect of temperature on macroeconomic performance, the effects of climate on human conflict, and the long-term health and economic impact of tropical cyclones. Each of these examples provide new insight into previously unknown benefits of various climate management strategies. I conclude by describing new efforts to systematically gather and compare findings from across the research community to support informed and rational climate management decisions.

More rapid climate change promotes evolutionary rescue through selection for increased dispersal distance.

PubMed

Boeye, Jeroen; Travis, Justin M J; Stoks, Robby; Bonte, Dries

2013-02-01

Species can either adapt to new conditions induced by climate change or shift their range in an attempt to track optimal environmental conditions. During current range shifts, species are simultaneously confronted with a second major anthropogenic disturbance, landscape fragmentation. Using individual-based models with a shifting climate window, we examine the effect of different rates of climate change on the evolution of dispersal distances through changes in the genetically determined dispersal kernel. Our results demonstrate that the rate of climate change is positively correlated to the evolved dispersal distances although too fast climate change causes the population to crash. When faced with realistic rates of climate change, greater dispersal distances evolve than those required for the population to keep track of the climate, thereby maximizing population size. Importantly, the greater dispersal distances that evolve when climate change is more rapid, induce evolutionary rescue by facilitating the population in crossing large gaps in the landscape. This could ensure population persistence in case of range shifting in fragmented landscapes. Furthermore, we highlight problems in using invasion speed as a proxy for potential range shifting abilities under climate change.

Projected climate change impacts and short term predictions on staple crops in Sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mereu, V.; Spano, D.; Gallo, A.; Carboni, G.

2013-12-01

Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) drives the economy of many African countries and it is mainly rain-fed agriculture used for subsistence. Increasing temperatures, changed precipitation patterns and more frequent droughts may lead to a substantial decrease of crop yields. The projected impacts of future climate change on agriculture are expected to be significant and extensive in the SSA due to the shortening of the growing seasons and the increasing of water-stress risk. Differences in Agro-Ecological Zones and geographical characteristics of SSA influence the diverse impacts of climate change, which can greatly differ across the continent and within countries. The vulnerability of African Countries to climate change is aggravated by the low adaptive capacity of the continent, due to the increasing of its population, the widespread poverty, and other social factors. In this contest, the assessment of climate change impact on agricultural sector has a particular interest to stakeholder and policy makers, in order to identify specific agricultural sectors and Agro-Ecological Zones that could be more vulnerable to changes in climatic conditions and to develop the most appropriate policies to cope with these threats. For these reasons, the evaluation of climate change impacts for key crops in SSA was made exploring climate uncertainty and focusing on short period monitoring, which is particularly useful for food security and risk management analysis. The DSSAT-CSM (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer - Cropping System Model) software, version 4.5 was used for the analysis. Crop simulation models included in DSSAT-CSM are tools that allow to simulate physiological process of crop growth, development and production, by combining genetic crop characteristics and environmental (soil and weather) conditions. For each selected crop, the models were used, after a parameterization phase, to evaluate climate change impacts on crop phenology and production. Multiple combinations of soils and climate conditions, crop management and varieties were considered for the different Agro-Ecological Zones. The climate impact was assessed using future climate prediction, statistically and/or dynamically downscaled, for specific areas. Direct and indirect effects of different CO2 concentrations projected for the future periods were separately explored to estimate their effects on crops. Several adaptation strategies (e.g., introduction of full irrigation, shift of the ordinary sowing/planting date, changes in the ordinary fertilization management) were also evaluated with the aim to reduce the negative impact of climate change on crop production. The results of the study, analyzed at local, AEZ and country level, will be discussed.

Missing Rings, Synchronous Growth, and Ecological Disturbance in a 36-Year Pitch Pine (Pinus rigida) Provenance Study

Treesearch

Caroline Leland; John Hom; Nicholas Skowronski; F. Thomas Ledig; Paul J. Krusic; Edward R. Cook; Dario Martin-Benito; Javier Martin-Fernandez; Neil Pederson; Dusan Gomory

2016-01-01

Provenance studies are an increasingly important analog for understanding how trees adapted to particular climatic conditions might respond to climate change. Dendrochronological analysis can illuminate differences among trees from different seed sources in terms of absolute annual growth and sensitivity to external growth factors. We analyzed annual radial growth of...

Evolution of climatic niche specialization: a phylogenetic analysis in amphibians

PubMed Central

Bonetti, Maria Fernanda; Wiens, John J.

2014-01-01

The evolution of climatic niche specialization has important implications for many topics in ecology, evolution and conservation. The climatic niche reflects the set of temperature and precipitation conditions where a species can occur. Thus, specialization to a limited set of climatic conditions can be important for understanding patterns of biogeography, species richness, community structure, allopatric speciation, spread of invasive species and responses to climate change. Nevertheless, the factors that determine climatic niche width (level of specialization) remain poorly explored. Here, we test whether species that occur in more extreme climates are more highly specialized for those conditions, and whether there are trade-offs between niche widths on different climatic niche axes (e.g. do species that tolerate a broad range of temperatures tolerate only a limited range of precipitation regimes?). We test these hypotheses in amphibians, using phylogenetic comparative methods and global-scale datasets, including 2712 species with both climatic and phylogenetic data. Our results do not support either hypothesis. Rather than finding narrower niches in more extreme environments, niches tend to be narrower on one end of a climatic gradient but wider on the other. We also find that temperature and precipitation niche breadths are positively related, rather than showing trade-offs. Finally, our results suggest that most amphibian species occur in relatively warm and dry environments and have relatively narrow climatic niche widths on both of these axes. Thus, they may be especially imperilled by anthropogenic climate change. PMID:25274369

Evolution of climatic niche specialization: a phylogenetic analysis in amphibians.

PubMed

Bonetti, Maria Fernanda; Wiens, John J

2014-11-22

The evolution of climatic niche specialization has important implications for many topics in ecology, evolution and conservation. The climatic niche reflects the set of temperature and precipitation conditions where a species can occur. Thus, specialization to a limited set of climatic conditions can be important for understanding patterns of biogeography, species richness, community structure, allopatric speciation, spread of invasive species and responses to climate change. Nevertheless, the factors that determine climatic niche width (level of specialization) remain poorly explored. Here, we test whether species that occur in more extreme climates are more highly specialized for those conditions, and whether there are trade-offs between niche widths on different climatic niche axes (e.g. do species that tolerate a broad range of temperatures tolerate only a limited range of precipitation regimes?). We test these hypotheses in amphibians, using phylogenetic comparative methods and global-scale datasets, including 2712 species with both climatic and phylogenetic data. Our results do not support either hypothesis. Rather than finding narrower niches in more extreme environments, niches tend to be narrower on one end of a climatic gradient but wider on the other. We also find that temperature and precipitation niche breadths are positively related, rather than showing trade-offs. Finally, our results suggest that most amphibian species occur in relatively warm and dry environments and have relatively narrow climatic niche widths on both of these axes. Thus, they may be especially imperilled by anthropogenic climate change. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

The effect of climate manipulations on the herbivory of the pest slug Deroceras reticulatum (Müller, 1774) (Pulmonata: Agriolimacidae)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El-Danasoury, H.; Iglesias-Piñeiro, J.; Córdoba, M.

2016-10-01

The pestiferous status of the terrestrial slug Deroceras reticulatum and the strong dependence of its biology and ecology on climatic factors have driven research on the potential responses of the slug to predicted scenarios of climate change. Here, we report two short-term experiments performed outdoors, under seminatural conditions, to assess the behavioural response of D. reticulatum to different climate manipulations in terms of herbivory, by measuring over 7 days the damage inflicted by slug populations to lettuce seedlings. The climate manipulations tested emulate predicted climatic conditions for northwest Spain, specifically winter warming and increased summer rainfall, in contrast respectively with normal winter conditions and summer without rain conditions. In a winter experiment, we compared a normal winter treatment with a winter warming treatment; with respect to the normal winter treatment, the winter warming treatment was characterised by higher temperature, lower relative humidity and the absence of rainfall. In a summer experiment, we compared a summer drought treatment with an increased summer rainfall treatment; with respect to the summer drought treatment, the increased summer rainfall treatment was characterised by the presence of rainfall, while the conditions of temperature and relative humidity were similar in both treatments. Neither winter warming nor increased summer rainfall did lead to a significant increase on the number of seedlings damaged by the slugs. However, with both treatments, we found a moderate increase on the amount of damage suffered by the seedlings. The results are discussed in the context of the potential responses of D. reticulatum to future climatic conditions.

The effect of climate manipulations on the herbivory of the pest slug Deroceras reticulatum (Müller, 1774) (Pulmonata: Agriolimacidae).

PubMed

El-Danasoury, H; Iglesias-Piñeiro, J; Córdoba, M

2016-10-01

The pestiferous status of the terrestrial slug Deroceras reticulatum and the strong dependence of its biology and ecology on climatic factors have driven research on the potential responses of the slug to predicted scenarios of climate change. Here, we report two short-term experiments performed outdoors, under seminatural conditions, to assess the behavioural response of D. reticulatum to different climate manipulations in terms of herbivory, by measuring over 7 days the damage inflicted by slug populations to lettuce seedlings. The climate manipulations tested emulate predicted climatic conditions for northwest Spain, specifically winter warming and increased summer rainfall, in contrast respectively with normal winter conditions and summer without rain conditions. In a winter experiment, we compared a normal winter treatment with a winter warming treatment; with respect to the normal winter treatment, the winter warming treatment was characterised by higher temperature, lower relative humidity and the absence of rainfall. In a summer experiment, we compared a summer drought treatment with an increased summer rainfall treatment; with respect to the summer drought treatment, the increased summer rainfall treatment was characterised by the presence of rainfall, while the conditions of temperature and relative humidity were similar in both treatments. Neither winter warming nor increased summer rainfall did lead to a significant increase on the number of seedlings damaged by the slugs. However, with both treatments, we found a moderate increase on the amount of damage suffered by the seedlings. The results are discussed in the context of the potential responses of D. reticulatum to future climatic conditions.

Application of synthetic scenarios to address water resource concerns: A management-guided case study from the Upper Colorado River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

McAfee, Stephanie A.; Pederson, Gregory T.; Woodhouse, Connie A.; McCabe, Gregory

2017-01-01

Water managers are increasingly interested in better understanding and planning for projected resource impacts from climate change. In this management-guided study, we use a very large suite of synthetic climate scenarios in a statistical modeling framework to simultaneously evaluate how (1) average temperature and precipitation changes, (2) initial basin conditions, and (3) temporal characteristics of the input climate data influence water-year flow in the Upper Colorado River. The results here suggest that existing studies may underestimate the degree of uncertainty in future streamflow, particularly under moderate temperature and precipitation changes. However, we also find that the relative severity of future flow projections within a given climate scenario can be estimated with simple metrics that characterize the input climate data and basin conditions. These results suggest that simple testing, like the analyses presented in this paper, may be helpful in understanding differences between existing studies or in identifying specific conditions for physically based mechanistic modeling. Both options could reduce overall cost and improve the efficiency of conducting climate change impacts studies.

Phylogeny and source climate impact seed dormancy and germination of restoration-relevant forb species

PubMed Central

Williams, Evelyn; Bilge, Arman; Kramer, Andrea T.

2018-01-01

For many species and seed sources used in restoration activities, specific seed germination requirements are often unknown. Because seed dormancy and germination traits can be constrained by phylogenetic history, related species are often assumed to have similar traits. However, significant variation in these traits is also present within species as a result of adaptation to local climatic conditions. A growing number of studies have attempted to disentangle how phylogeny and climate influence seed dormancy and germination traits, but they have focused primarily on species-level effects, ignoring potential population-level variation. We examined the relationships between phylogeny, climate, and seed dormancy and germination traits for 24 populations of eight native, restoration-relevant forb species found in a wide range of climatic conditions in the Southwest United States. The seeds were exposed to eight temperature and stratification length regimes designed to mimic regional climatic conditions. Phylogenetic relatedness, overall climatic conditions, and temperature conditions at the site were all significantly correlated with final germination response, with significant among-population variation in germination response across incubation treatments for seven of our eight study species. Notably, germination during stratification was significantly predicted by precipitation seasonality and differed significantly among populations for seven species. While previous studies have not examined germination during stratification as a potential trait influencing overall germination response, our results suggest that this trait should be included in germination studies as well as seed sourcing decisions. Results of this study deepen our understanding of the relationships between source climate, species identity, and germination, leading to improved seed sourcing decisions for restorations. PMID:29401470

Development of a methodology to assess future trends in low flows at the watershed scale using solely climate data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foulon, Étienne; Rousseau, Alain N.; Gagnon, Patrick

2018-02-01

Low flow conditions are governed by short-to-medium term weather conditions or long term climate conditions. This prompts the question: given climate scenarios, is it possible to assess future extreme low flow conditions from climate data indices (CDIs)? Or should we rely on the conventional approach of using outputs of climate models as inputs to a hydrological model? Several CDIs were computed using 42 climate scenarios over the years 1961-2100 for two watersheds located in Québec, Canada. The relationship between the CDIs and hydrological data indices (HDIs; 7- and 30-day low flows for two hydrological seasons) were examined through correlation analysis to identify the indices governing low flows. Results of the Mann-Kendall test, with a modification for autocorrelated data, clearly identified trends. A partial correlation analysis allowed attributing the observed trends in HDIs to trends in specific CDIs. Furthermore, results showed that, even during the spatial validation process, the methodological framework was able to assess trends in low flow series from: (i) trends in the effective drought index (EDI) computed from rainfall plus snowmelt minus PET amounts over ten to twelve months of the hydrological snow cover season or (ii) the cumulative difference between rainfall and potential evapotranspiration over five months of the snow free season. For 80% of the climate scenarios, trends in HDIs were successfully attributed to trends in CDIs. Overall, this paper introduces an efficient methodological framework to assess future trends in low flows given climate scenarios. The outcome may prove useful to municipalities concerned with source water management under changing climate conditions.

Sensitivity of ground - water recharge estimates to climate variability and change, Columbia Plateau, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vaccaro, John J.

1992-01-01

The sensitivity of groundwater recharge estimates was investigated for the semiarid Ellensburg basin, located on the Columbia Plateau, Washington, to historic and projected climatic regimes. Recharge was estimated for predevelopment and current (1980s) land use conditions using a daily energy-soil-water balance model. A synthetic daily weather generator was used to simulate lengthy sequences with parameters estimated from subsets of the historical record that were unusually wet and unusually dry. Comparison of recharge estimates corresponding to relatively wet and dry periods showed that recharge for predevelopment land use varies considerably within the range of climatic conditions observed in the 87-year historical observation period. Recharge variations for present land use conditions were less sensitive to the same range of historical climatic conditions because of irrigation. The estimated recharge based on the 87-year historical climatology was compared with adjustments to the historical precipitation and temperature records for the same record to reflect CO2-doubling climates as projected by general circulation models (GCMs). Two GCM scenarios were considered: an average of conditions for three different GCMs with CO2 doubling, and a most severe “maximum” case. For the average GCM scenario, predevelopment recharge increased, and current recharge decreased. Also considered was the sensitivity of recharge to the variability of climate within the historical and adjusted historical records. Predevelopment and current recharge were less and more sensitive, respectively, to the climate variability for the average GCM scenario as compared to the variability within the historical record. For the maximum GCM scenario, recharge for both predevelopment and current land use decreased, and the sensitivity to the CO2-related climate change was larger than sensitivity to the variability in the historical and adjusted historical climate records.

Climatic conditions produce contrasting influences on demographic traits in a long-distance Arctic migrant.

PubMed

Cleasby, Ian R; Bodey, Thomas W; Vigfusdottir, Freydis; McDonald, Jenni L; McElwaine, Graham; Mackie, Kerry; Colhoun, Kendrew; Bearhop, Stuart

2017-03-01

The manner in which patterns of variation and interactions among demographic rates contribute to population growth rate (λ) is key to understanding how animal populations will respond to changing climatic conditions. Migratory species are likely to be particularly sensitive to climatic conditions as they experience a range of different environments throughout their annual cycle. However, few studies have provided fully integrated demographic analyses of migratory populations in response to changing climatic conditions. Here, we employed integrated population models to demonstrate that the environmental conditions experienced during a short but critical period play a central role in the demography of a long-distance migrant, the light-bellied Brent goose (Branta bernicla hrota). Female survival was positively associated with June North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) values, whereas male survival was not. In contrast, breeding productivity was negatively associated with June NAO, suggesting a trade-off between female survival and reproductive success. Both adult female and adult male survival showed low temporal variation, whereas there was high temporal variation in recruitment and breeding productivity. In addition, while annual population growth was positively correlated with annual breeding productivity, a sensitivity analysis revealed that population growth was most sensitive to changes in adult survival. Our results demonstrate that the environmental conditions experienced during a relatively short-time window at the start of the breeding season play a critical role in shaping the demography of a long-distant Arctic migrant. Crucially, different demographic rates responded in opposing directions to climatic variation, emphasising the need for integrated analysis of multiple demographic traits when understanding population dynamics. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2016 British Ecological Society.

The long-term effects of planting and harvesting on secondary forest dynamics under climate change in northeastern China

PubMed Central

Yao, Jing; He, Xingyuan; He, Hongshi; Chen, Wei; Dai, Limin; Lewis, Bernard J.; Yu, Lizhong

2016-01-01

Unlike the virgin forest in the Changbaishan Nature Reserve in northeastern China, little research on a landscape scale has been conducted on secondary forests in the region under conditions of a warming climate. This research was undertaken in the upper Hun River region where the vegetation is representative of the typical secondary forest of northeastern China. The spatially explicit forest landscape model LANDIS was utilized to simulate the responses of forest restoration dynamics to anthropogenic disturbance (planting and harvesting) and evaluate the difference of the restoration process under continuation of current climatic conditions and climate warming. The results showed that: (1) The interaction of planting and harvesting has organizational scale effects on the forest. The combination of planting and harvesting policies has significant effects on the overall forest but not on individual species. (2) The area expansion of the historically dominant species Pinus koraiensis is less under climate warming than under continuation of current climatic conditions. These suggests that we should carefully take historically dominant species as the main focus for forest restoration, especially when they are near their natural distribution boundary, because they are probably less capable of successfully adapting to climate change. PMID:26725308

Impact of urban WWTP and CSO fluxes on river peak flow extremes under current and future climate conditions.

PubMed

Keupers, Ingrid; Willems, Patrick

2013-01-01

The impact of urban water fluxes on the river system outflow of the Grote Nete catchment (Belgium) was studied. First the impact of the Waste Water Treatment Plant (WWTP) and the Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) outflows on the river system for the current climatic conditions was determined by simulating the urban fluxes as point sources in a detailed, hydrodynamic river model. Comparison was made of the simulation results on peak flow extremes with and without the urban point sources. In a second step, the impact of climate change scenarios on the urban fluxes and the consequent impacts on the river flow extremes were studied. It is shown that the change in the 10-year return period hourly peak flow discharge due to climate change (-14% to +45%) was in the same order of magnitude as the change due to the urban fluxes (+5%) in current climate conditions. Different climate change scenarios do not change the impact of the urban fluxes much except for the climate scenario that involves a strong increase in rainfall extremes in summer. This scenario leads to a strong increase of the impact of the urban fluxes on the river system.

The long-term effects of planting and harvesting on secondary forest dynamics under climate change in northeastern China.

PubMed

Yao, Jing; He, Xingyuan; He, Hongshi; Chen, Wei; Dai, Limin; Lewis, Bernard J; Yu, Lizhong

2016-01-04

Unlike the virgin forest in the Changbaishan Nature Reserve in northeastern China, little research on a landscape scale has been conducted on secondary forests in the region under conditions of a warming climate. This research was undertaken in the upper Hun River region where the vegetation is representative of the typical secondary forest of northeastern China. The spatially explicit forest landscape model LANDIS was utilized to simulate the responses of forest restoration dynamics to anthropogenic disturbance (planting and harvesting) and evaluate the difference of the restoration process under continuation of current climatic conditions and climate warming. The results showed that: (1) The interaction of planting and harvesting has organizational scale effects on the forest. The combination of planting and harvesting policies has significant effects on the overall forest but not on individual species. (2) The area expansion of the historically dominant species Pinus koraiensis is less under climate warming than under continuation of current climatic conditions. These suggests that we should carefully take historically dominant species as the main focus for forest restoration, especially when they are near their natural distribution boundary, because they are probably less capable of successfully adapting to climate change.

Simulating streamflow in ungauged basins under a changing climate: The importance of landscape characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teutschbein, Claudia; Grabs, Thomas; Laudon, Hjalmar; Karlsen, Reinert H.; Bishop, Kevin

2018-06-01

In this paper we explored how landscape characteristics such as topography, geology, soils and land cover influence the way catchments respond to changing climate conditions. Based on an ensemble of 15 regional climate models bias-corrected with a distribution-mapping approach, present and future streamflow in 14 neighboring and rather similar catchments in Northern Sweden was simulated with the HBV model. We established functional relationships between a range of landscape characteristics and projected changes in streamflow signatures. These were then used to analyze hydrological consequences of physical perturbations in a hypothetically ungauged basin in a climate change context. Our analysis showed a strong connection between the forest cover extent and the sensitivity of different components of a catchment's hydrological regime to changing climate conditions. This emphasizes the need to redefine forestry goals and practices in advance of climate change-related risks and uncertainties.

An application of a hydraulic model simulator in flood risk assessment under changing climatic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doroszkiewicz, J. M.; Romanowicz, R. J.

2016-12-01

The standard procedure of climate change impact assessment on future hydrological extremes consists of a chain of consecutive actions, starting from the choice of GCM driven by an assumed CO2 scenario, through downscaling of climatic forcing to a catchment scale, estimation of hydrological extreme indices using hydrological modelling tools and subsequent derivation of flood risk maps with the help of a hydraulic model. Among many possible sources of uncertainty, the main are the uncertainties related to future climate scenarios, climate models, downscaling techniques and hydrological and hydraulic models. Unfortunately, we cannot directly assess the impact of these different sources of uncertainties on flood risk in future due to lack of observations of future climate realizations. The aim of this study is an assessment of a relative impact of different sources of uncertainty on the uncertainty of flood risk maps. Due to the complexity of the processes involved, an assessment of total uncertainty of maps of inundation probability might be very computer time consuming. As a way forward we present an application of a hydraulic model simulator based on a nonlinear transfer function model for the chosen locations along the river reach. The transfer function model parameters are estimated based on the simulations of the hydraulic model at each of the model cross-sections. The study shows that the application of a simulator substantially reduces the computer requirements related to the derivation of flood risk maps under future climatic conditions. Biala Tarnowska catchment, situated in southern Poland is used as a case study. Future discharges at the input to a hydraulic model are obtained using the HBV model and climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. The study describes a cascade of uncertainty related to different stages of the process of derivation of flood risk maps under changing climate conditions. In this context it takes into account the uncertainty of future climate projections, an uncertainty of flow routing model, the propagation of that uncertainty through the hydraulic model, and finally, the uncertainty related to the derivation of flood risk maps.

Comparative transcriptome analysis of ginger variety Suprabha from two different agro-climatic zones of Odisha.

PubMed

Gaur, Mahendra; Das, Aradhana; Sahoo, Rajesh Kumar; Mohanty, Sujata; Joshi, Raj Kumar; Subudhi, Enketeswara

2016-09-01

Ginger (Zingiber officinale Rosc.), a well-known member of family Zingiberaceae, is bestowed with number of medicinal properties which is because of the secondary metabolites, essential oil and oleoresin, it contains in its rhizome. The drug yielding potential is known to depend on agro-climatic conditions prevailing at the place cultivation. Present study deals with comparative transcriptome analysis of two sample of elite ginger variety Suprabha collected from two different agro-climatic zones of Odisha. Transcriptome assembly for both the samples was done using next generation sequencing methodology. The raw data of size 10.8 and 11.8 GB obtained from analysis of two rhizomes S1Z4 and S2Z5 collected from Bhubaneswar and Koraput and are available in NCBI accession number SAMN03761169 and SAMN03761176 respectively. We identified 60,452 and 54,748 transcripts using trinity tool respectively from ginger rhizome of S1Z4 and S2Z5. The transcript length varied from 300 bp to 15,213 bp and 8988 bp and N50 value of 1415 bp and 1334 bp respectively for S1Z4 and S2Z5. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first comparative transcriptome analysis of elite ginger cultivars Suprabha from two different agro-climatic conditions of Odisha, India which will help to understand the effect of agro-climatic conditions on differential expression of secondary metabolites.

Measuring resilience and assessing vulnerability of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change in South America

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Climate change has been identified as the primary threat to the integrity and functioning of ecosystems in this century, although there is still much uncertainty about its effects and the degree of vulnerability for different ecosystems to this threat. Here we propose a new methodological approach capable of measuring and mapping the resilience of terrestrial ecosystems at large scales based on their climatic niche. To do this, we used high spatial resolution remote sensing data and ecological niche modeling techniques to calculate and spatialize the resilience of three stable states of ecosystems in South America: forest, savanna, and grassland. Also, we evaluated the sensitivity of ecosystems to climate stress, the likelihood of exposure to non-analogous climatic conditions, and their respective adaptive capacities in the face of climate change. Our results indicate that forests, the most productive and biodiverse terrestrial ecosystems on the earth, are more vulnerable to climate change than savannas or grasslands. Forests showed less resistance to climate stress and a higher chance of exposure to non-analogous climatic conditions. If this scenario occurs, the forest ecosystems would have less chance of adaptation compared to savannas or grasslands because of their narrow climate niche. Therefore, we can conclude that a possible consolidation of non-analogous climatic conditions would lead to a loss of resilience in the forest ecosystem, significantly increasing the chance of a critical transition event to another stable state with a lower density of vegetation cover (e.g., savanna or grassland). PMID:29554132

Modelling regional variability of irrigation requirements due to climate change in Northern Germany.

PubMed

Riediger, Jan; Breckling, Broder; Svoboda, Nikolai; Schröder, Winfried

2016-01-15

The question whether global climate change invalidates the efficiency of established land use practice cannot be answered without systemic considerations on a region specific basis. In this context plant water availability and irrigation requirements, respectively, were investigated in Northern Germany. The regions under investigation--Diepholz, Uelzen, Fläming and Oder-Spree--represent a climatic gradient with increasing continentality from West to East. Besides regional climatic variation and climate change, soil conditions and crop management differ on the regional scale. In the model regions, temporal seasonal droughts influence crop success already today, but on different levels of intensity depending mainly on climate conditions. By linking soil water holding capacities, crop management data and calculations of evapotranspiration and precipitation from the climate change scenario RCP 8.5 irrigation requirements for maintaining crop productivity were estimated for the years 1991 to 2070. Results suggest that water requirement for crop irrigation is likely to increase with considerable regional variation. For some of the regions, irrigation requirements might increase to such an extent that the established regional agricultural practice might be hard to retain. Where water availability is limited, agricultural practice, like management and cultivated crop spectrum, has to be changed to deal with the new challenges. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analyzing the Response of Climate Perturbations to (Tropical) Cyclones using the WRF Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tewari, M.; Mittal, R.; Radhakrishnan, C.; Cipriani, J.; Watson, C.

2015-12-01

An analysis of global climate models shows considerable changes in the intensity and characteristics of future, warm climate cyclones. At regional scales, deviations in cyclone characteristics are often derived using idealized perturbations in the humidity, temperature and surface conditions. In this work, a more realistic approach is adopted by applying climate perturbations from the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) to ERA-interim data to generate the initial and boundary conditions for future climate simulations. The climate signal perturbations are generated from the differences in 21 years of mean data from CCSM4 with representative concentration pathways (RCP8.5) for the periods: (a) 2070-2090 (future climate), (b) 2025-2045 (near-future climate) and (c) 1985-2005 (current climate). Four individual cyclone cases are simulated with and without climate perturbations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with a nested configuration. Each cyclone is characterized by variations in intensity, landfall location, precipitation and societal damage. To calculate societal damage, we use the recently introduced Cyclone Damage Potential (CDP) index evolved from the Willis Hurricane Index (WHI). As CDP has been developed for general societal applications, this work should provide useful insights for resilience analyses and industry (e.g., re-insurance).

[Cyclic processes in the dynamics of the population count of the taiga tick and their relation to weather and climatic conditions].

PubMed

Korotkov, Iu S

1998-01-01

The paper continues the discussion of published materials on the dynamic of Ixodes persulcatus number in mountain forests of the central part of the Krasnoyarsk region during 1958-1990 (Korotkov e. a., 1992). An unstationarity and polycyclicity of examined processus is confirmed. It is shown, that long-term and middle-term quasi-periodical fluctuations of the tick number are determined by successive changing in forest biocenoses going under the influence of respective fluctuations of the climate. The synchronization of climatic and biocenotic processes is complicatedly organized in time and is not indicated phenomenologically. Certain quasi-periodical components in their indices of the tick number and climate are quite different by their amplitude, value of phase displacement, and longevity of terms. However, these structural differences are natural and determined by peculiarities of the response reaction of I. persulcatus to different intensivity of acting factor. This reaction under extreme environment conditions, both minimal and maximal ones, leads to the same result, the decreasing of the vital activity and the tick number.

Climate change impacts on main agricultural activities in the Oltenia Plain (Romania)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitrica, B.; Mateescu, E.; Dragota, C.; Busuioc, A.; Grigorescu, I.; Popovici, A.

2012-04-01

Understanding the key drivers of agriculture in relation to climate change as well as their interrelationship with land management decisions and policies, one may be able to project future agricultural productions under certain economic, environmental, and social scenarios in order to minimize their negative impacts. The paper is aiming to stress upon the importance of modelling the potential impact of climate change on crop production, particularly under the current conditions when natural resources and food supplies are shortening in many parts of the world. Under the given circumstances, in assessing the impact of climate change on agriculture in the Oltenia Plain, the authors used a simulation model CERES (Crop-Environment Resource Synthesis), developed as a predictive and deterministic model, used for basic and applied research on the effects of climate (thermal regime, water stress) and management (fertilization practices, irrigation) on the growth and yield of different crops. In assessing the impact of climate change on maize and autumn wheat crops two applications of CERES model were used: CERES-Wheat and CERES-Maize overlapping two regional climatic scenarios for 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 periods. These models describe, based on daily data the basic biophysical processes which take place at the soil-plant-atmosphere interface as a response to the variability of different processes such as: photosynthesis, specific phonological phases, evapotranspiration, water dynamics in soil etc. Assessing the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity under the two regional climatic scenarios (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) will reveal their potential consequences on the main agricultural crops in the Oltenia Plain (autumn wheat and maize) depending on the interaction between local climatic conditions, the effect rising CO2 on photosynthesis and the genetical type of crops. Therefore, the autumn wheat benefits from the interaction between the rise of CO2 and air temperature while maize is more vulnerable to climate change, especially to hot and dry RCMs/2071-2100/SRES A1B scenario. Against the current climatic conditions, temperature rise foreseen by both scenarios brings about a decrease of the vegetation period. Under these conditions, the rising of atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) during the two climate change projected intervals have a positive effect on photosynthesis, which might lead to increase yields, thus counteracting the negative effect of shortening the vegetation period. Under the same climate change conditions, the maize yield shrinks, but more acute in the case of RCMs/2071-2100 scenario due to temperature raise which trigger shortening of the vegetation period coupled with water stress, especially during the flowering and yield formation interval (May-August).

Directed International Technological Change and Climate Policy: New Methods for Identifying Robust Policies Under Conditions of Deep Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molina-Perez, Edmundo

It is widely recognized that international environmental technological change is key to reduce the rapidly rising greenhouse gas emissions of emerging nations. In 2010, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference of the Parties (COP) agreed to the creation of the Green Climate Fund (GCF). This new multilateral organization has been created with the collective contributions of COP members, and has been tasked with directing over USD 100 billion per year towards investments that can enhance the development and diffusion of clean energy technologies in both advanced and emerging nations (Helm and Pichler, 2015). The landmark agreement arrived at the COP 21 has reaffirmed the key role that the GCF plays in enabling climate mitigation as it is now necessary to align large scale climate financing efforts with the long-term goals agreed at Paris 2015. This study argues that because of the incomplete understanding of the mechanics of international technological change, the multiplicity of policy options and ultimately the presence of climate and technological change deep uncertainty, climate financing institutions such as the GCF, require new analytical methods for designing long-term robust investment plans. Motivated by these challenges, this dissertation shows that the application of new analytical methods, such as Robust Decision Making (RDM) and Exploratory Modeling (Lempert, Popper and Bankes, 2003) to the study of international technological change and climate policy provides useful insights that can be used for designing a robust architecture of international technological cooperation for climate change mitigation. For this study I developed an exploratory dynamic integrated assessment model (EDIAM) which is used as the scenario generator in a large computational experiment. The scope of the experimental design considers an ample set of climate and technological scenarios. These scenarios combine five sources of uncertainty: climate change, elasticity of substitution between renewable and fossil energy and three different sources of technological uncertainty (i.e. R&D returns, innovation propensity and technological transferability). The performance of eight different GCF and non-GCF based policy regimes is evaluated in light of various end-of-century climate policy targets. Then I combine traditional scenario discovery data mining methods (Bryant and Lempert, 2010) with high dimensional stacking methods (Suzuki, Stem and Manzocchi, 2015; Taylor et al., 2006; LeBlanc, Ward and Wittels, 1990) to quantitatively characterize the conditions under which it is possible to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions and keep temperature rise below 2°C before the end of the century. Finally, I describe a method by which it is possible to combine the results of scenario discovery with high-dimensional stacking to construct a dynamic architecture of low cost technological cooperation. This dynamic architecture consists of adaptive pathways (Kwakkel, Haasnoot and Walker, 2014; Haasnoot et al., 2013) which begin with carbon taxation across both regions as a critical near term action. Then in subsequent phases different forms of cooperation are triggered depending on the unfolding climate and technological conditions. I show that there is no single policy regime that dominates over the entire uncertainty space. Instead I find that it is possible to combine these different architectures into a dynamic framework for technological cooperation across regions that can be adapted to unfolding climate and technological conditions which can lead to a greater rate of success and to lower costs in meeting the end-of-century climate change objectives agreed at the 2015 Paris Conference of the Parties. Keywords: international technological change, emerging nations, climate change, technological uncertainties, Green Climate Fund.

Plasticity in variation of xylem and phloem cell characteristics of Norway spruce under different local conditions

PubMed Central

Gričar, Jožica; Prislan, Peter; de Luis, Martin; Gryc, Vladimír; Hacurová, Jana; Vavrčík, Hanuš; Čufar, Katarina

2015-01-01

There is limited information on intra-annual plasticity of secondary tissues of tree species growing under different environmental conditions. To increase the knowledge about the plasticity of secondary growth, which allows trees to adapt to specific local climatic regimes, we examined climate–radial growth relationships of Norway spruce [Picea abies (L.) H. Karst.] from three contrasting locations in the temperate climatic zone by analyzing tree-ring widths for the period 1932–2010, and cell characteristics in xylem and phloem increments formed in the years 2009–2011. Variation in the structure of xylem and phloem increments clearly shows that plasticity in seasonal dynamics of cambial cell production and cell differentiation exists on xylem and phloem sides. Anatomical characteristics of xylem and phloem cells are predominantly site-specific characteristics, because they varied among sites but were fairly uniform among years in trees from the same site. Xylem and phloem tissues formed in the first part of the growing season seemed to be more stable in structure, indicating their priority over latewood and late phloem for tree performance. Long-term climate and radial growth analyses revealed that growth was in general less dependent on precipitation than on temperature; however, growth sensitivity to local conditions differed among the sites. Only partial dependence of radial growth of spruce on climatic factors on the selected sites confirms its strategy to adapt the structure of wood and phloem increments to function optimally in local conditions. PMID:26442044

Different ecophysiological responses of freshwater fish to warming and acidification.

PubMed

Jesus, Tiago F; Rosa, Inês C; Repolho, Tiago; Lopes, Ana R; Pimentel, Marta S; Almeida-Val, Vera M F; Coelho, Maria M; Rosa, Rui

2018-02-01

Future climate change scenarios predict threatening outcomes to biodiversity. Available empirical data concerning biological response of freshwater fish to climate change remains scarce. In this study, we investigated the physiological and biochemical responses of two Iberian freshwater fish species (Squalius carolitertii and the endangered S. torgalensis), inhabiting different climatic conditions, to projected future scenarios of warming (+3°C) and acidification (ΔpH=-0.4). Herein, metabolic enzyme activities of glycolytic (citrate synthase - CS, lactate dehydrogenase - LDH) and antioxidant (glutathione S-transferase, catalase and superoxide dismutase) pathways, as well as the heat shock response (HSR) and lipid peroxidation were determined. Our results show that, under current water pH, warming causes differential interspecific changes on LDH activity, increasing and decreasing its activity in S. carolitertii and in S. torgalensis, respectively. Furthermore, the synergistic effect of warming and acidification caused an increase in LDH activity of S. torgalensis, comparing with the warming condition. As for CS activity, acidification significantly decreased its activity in S. carolitertii whereas in S. torgalensis no significant effect was observed. These results suggest that S. carolitertii is more vulnerable to climate change, possibly as the result of its evolutionary acclimatization to milder climatic condition, while S. torgalensis evolved in the warmer Mediterranean climate. However, significant changes in HSR were observed under the combined warming and acidification (S. carolitertii) or under acidification (S. torgalensis). Our results underlie the importance of conducting experimental studies and address species endpoint responses under projected climate change scenarios to improve conservation strategies, and to safeguard endangered freshwater fish. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Historical influence of irrigation on climate extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiery, Wim; Davin, Edouard L.; Lawrence, Dave; Hauser, Mathias; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2016-04-01

Land irrigation is an essential practice sustaining global food production and many regional economies. During the last decades, irrigation amounts have been growing rapidly. Emerging scientific evidence indicates that land irrigation substantially affects mean climate conditions in different regions of the world. However, a thorough understanding of the impact of irrigation on extreme climatic conditions, such as heat waves, droughts or intense precipitation, is currently still lacking. In this context, we aim to assess the historical influence of irrigation on the occurrence of climate extremes. To this end, two simulations are conducted over the period 1910-2010 with a state-of-the-art global climate model (the Community Earth System Model, CESM): a control simulation including all major anthropogenic and natural external forcings except for irrigation and a second experiment with transient irrigation enabled. The two simulations are evaluated for their ability to represent (i) hot, dry and wet extremes using the HadEX2 and ERA-Interim datasets as a reference, and (ii) latent heat fluxes using LandFlux-EVAL. Assuming a linear combination of climatic responses to different forcings, the difference between both experiments approximates the influence of irrigation. We will analyse the impact of irrigation on a number of climate indices reflecting the intensity and duration of heat waves. Thereby, particular attention is given to the role of soil moisture changes in modulating climate extremes. Furthermore, the contribution of individual biogeophysical processes to the total impact of irrigation on hot extremes is quantified by application of a surface energy balance decomposition technique to the 90th and 99th percentile surface temperature changes.

The Response of Different Audiences to Place-based Communication about the Role of Climate Change in Extreme Weather Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halperin, A.; Walton, P.

2015-12-01

As the science of extreme event attribution grows, there is an increasing need to understand how the public responds to this type of climate change communication. Extreme event attribution has the unprecedented potential to locate the effects of climate change in the here and now, but there is little information about how different facets of the public might respond to these local framings of climate change. Drawing on theories of place attachment and psychological distance, this paper explores how people with different beliefs and values shift their willingness to mitigate and adapt to climate change in response to local or global communication of climate change impacts. Results will be presented from a recent survey of over 600 Californians who were each presented with one of three experimental conditions: 1) a local framing of the role of climate change in the California drought 2) a global framing of climate change and droughts worldwide, or 3) a control condition of no text. Participants were categorized into groups based on their prior beliefs about climate change according to the Six Americas classification scheme (Leiserowitz et al., 2011). The results from the survey in conjunction with qualitative results from follow-up interviews shed insight into the importance of place in communicating climate change for people in each of the Six Americas. Additional results examine the role of gender and political affiliation in mediating responses to climate change communication. Despite research that advocates unequivocally for local framing of climate change, this study offers a more nuanced perspective of under which circumstances extreme event attribution might be an effective tool for changing behaviors. These results could be useful for scientists who wish to gain a better understanding of how their event attribution research is perceived or for educators who want to target their message to audiences where it could have the most impact.

Geographical differences in maternal basking behaviour and offspring growth rate in a climatically widespread viviparous reptile.

PubMed

Cadby, Chloé D; Jones, Susan M; Wapstra, Erik

2014-04-01

In reptiles, the thermal environment during embryonic development affects offspring phenotypic traits and potentially offspring fitness. In viviparous species, mothers can potentially manipulate the embryonic thermal environment through their basking behaviour and, thus, may be able to manipulate offspring phenotype and increase offspring fitness. One way in which mothers can maximise offspring phenotype (and thus potentially affect offspring fitness) is by fine-tuning their basking behaviour to the environment in order to buffer the embryo from deleterious developmental temperatures. In widespread species, it is unclear whether populations that have evolved under different climatic conditions will exhibit different maternal behaviours and/or thermal effects on offspring phenotype. To test this, we provided extended or reduced basking opportunity to gravid spotted skinks (Niveoscincus ocellatus) and their offspring from two populations at the climatic extremes of the species' distribution. Gravid females fine-tuned their basking behaviour to the basking opportunity, which allowed them to buffer their embryos from potentially negative thermal effects. This fine-tuning of female basking behaviour appears to have led to the expression of geographical differences in basking behaviour, with females from the cold alpine regions being more opportunistic in their basking behaviour than females from the warmer regions. However, those differences in maternal behaviour did not preclude the evolution of geographic differences in thermal effects: offspring growth varied between populations, potentially suggesting local adaptation to basking conditions. Our results demonstrate that maternal effects and phenotypic plasticity can play a significant role in allowing species to cope in changing environmental conditions, which is particularly relevant in the context of climate change.

Hydrologic and water quality sensitivity to climate and land ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This page describes a current EPA ORD project. No project report or other download is available at this time. Please see the section Next Steps below for a timeline of anticipated products of this work. Background: Projected changes in climate during the next century could cause or contribute to increased flooding, drought, water quality degradation, and ecosystem impairment. The effects of climate change in different watersheds will vary due to regional differences in climate change, physiographic setting, and interaction with land-use, pollutant sources, and water management in different locations. EPA is conducting watershed modeling to develop hydrologic and water quality change scenarios for 20 relatively large U.S. watersheds. Watershed modeling will be conducted using the Hydrologic Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) and Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) watershed models. Study areas range from about 10,000-15,000 square miles in size, and will cover nearly every ecoregion in the United States and a range of hydro-climatic conditions. A range of hydrologic and water quality endpoints will be determined for each watershed simulation. Endpoints will be selected to inform upon a range of stream flow, water quality, aquatic ecosystem, and EPA program management goals and targets. Model simulations will be conducted to evaluate a range of projected future (2040-2070) changes in climate and land-use. Simulations will include baseline conditions,

Assessing the Robustness of Green Infrastructure under Stochastic Design Storms and Climate Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chui, T. F. M.; Yang, Y.

2017-12-01

Green infrastructures (GI) have been widely used to mitigate flood risk, improve surface water quality, and to restore predevelopment hydrologic regimes. Commonly-used GI include, bioretention system, porous pavement and green roof, etc. They are normally sized to fulfil different design criteria (e.g. providing certain storage depths, limiting peak surface flow rates) that are formulated for current climate conditions. While GI commonly have long lifespan, the sensitivity of their performance to climate change is however unclear. This study first proposes a method to formulate suitable design criteria to meet different management interests (e.g. different levels of first flush reduction and peak flow reduction). Then typical designs of GI are proposed. In addition, a high resolution stochastic design storm generator using copulas and random cascade model is developed, which is calibrated using recorded rainfall time series. Then, few climate change scenarios are generated by varying the duration and depth of design storms, and changing the parameters of the calibrated storm generator. Finally, the performance of GI with typical designs under the random synthesized design storms are then assessed using numerical modeling. The robustness of the designs is obtained by the comparing their performance in the future scenarios to the current one. This study overall examines the robustness of the current GI design criteria under uncertain future climate conditions, demonstrating whether current GI design criteria should be modified to account for climate change.

Natural recovery of biological soil crusts after disturbance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weber, Bettina; Bowker, Matthew A.; Zhang, Yuanming; Belnap, Jayne

2016-01-01

Natural recovery of biological soil crusts (biocrusts) is influenced by a number of different parameters, such as climate, soil conditions, the severity of disturbance, and the timing of disturbance relative to the climatic conditions. In recent studies, it has been shown that recovery is often not linear, but a highly dynamic process directly influenced by non-linear external parameters as extraordinary climatic conditions (e.g., particularly dry or wet year). Natural recovery often follows a general succession pattern, starting out with cyanobacteria and algae, which is then followed by lichens and bryophytes at a later stage. However, this general sequence can be altered by parameters like dust deposition, fire effects, and special climatic conditions as in fog deserts and under mesic climates. Recent studies have proposed that under favorable, stable soil conditions, the initial soil-stabilizing cyanobacteria-dominated succession stages may be omitted and moss-dominated biocrusts can develop in the initial phases of biocrust development. During natural recovery of biocrusts, soil properties change, e.g., soil nutrient and organic matter contents increase. Also, silt and clay contents of encrusted soils increase with biocrust maturity, which may be caused by two mechanisms, i.e. entrapment of fine soil particles by biocrusts and the new formation of smaller particles by weathering of the existing substrate.

Future Climate Change Impact Assessment of River Flows at Two Watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ercan, A.; Ishida, K.; Kavvas, M. L.; Chen, Z. R.; Jang, S.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

2016-12-01

Impacts of climate change on the river flows under future climate change conditions were assessed over Muda and Dungun watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate model and a physically-based hydrology model utilizing an ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations. Coarse resolution GCMs' future projections covering a wide range of emission scenarios were dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over the study area. Hydrologic simulations of the two selected watersheds were carried out at hillslope-scale and at hourly increments.

Forecasting distributions of an aquatic invasive species (Nitellopsis obtusa) under future climate scenarios

PubMed Central

Varela, Sara; Larkin, Daniel J.; Phelps, Nicholas B. D.

2017-01-01

Starry stonewort (Nitellopsis obtusa) is an alga that has emerged as an aquatic invasive species of concern in the United States. Where established, starry stonewort can interfere with recreational uses of water bodies and potentially have ecological impacts. Incipient invasion of starry stonewort in Minnesota provides an opportunity to predict future expansion in order to target early detection and strategic management. We used ecological niche models to identify suitable areas for starry stonewort in Minnesota based on global occurrence records and present-day and future climate conditions. We assessed sensitivity of forecasts to different parameters, using four emission scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6, and RCP 8.5) from five future climate models (i.e., CCSM, GISS, IPSL, MIROC, and MRI). From our niche model analyses, we found that (i) occurrences from the entire range, instead of occurrences restricted to the invaded range, provide more informed models; (ii) default settings in Maxent did not provide the best model; (iii) the model calibration area and its background samples impact model performance; (iv) model projections to future climate conditions should be restricted to analogous environments; and (v) forecasts in future climate conditions should include different future climate models and model calibration areas to better capture uncertainty in forecasts. Under present climate, the most suitable areas for starry stonewort are predicted to be found in central and southeastern Minnesota. In the future, suitable areas for starry stonewort are predicted to shift in geographic range under some future climate models and to shrink under others, with most permutations indicating a net decrease of the species’ suitable range. Our suitability maps can serve to design short-term plans for surveillance and education, while future climate models suggest a plausible reduction of starry stonewort spread in the long-term if the trends in climate warming remain. PMID:28704433

Relevance of Regional Hydro-Climatic Projection Data for Hydrodynamics and Water Quality Modelling of the Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldenberg, R.; Vigouroux, G.; Chen, Y.; Bring, A.; Kalantari, Z.; Prieto, C.; Destouni, G.

2017-12-01

The Baltic Sea, located in Northern Europe, is one of the world's largest body of brackish water, enclosed and surrounded by nine different countries. The magnitude of climate change may be particularly large in northern regions, and identifying its impacts on vulnerable inland waters and their runoff and nutrient loading to the Baltic Sea is an important and complex task. Exploration of such hydro-climatic impacts is needed to understand potential future changes in physical, ecological and water quality conditions in the regional coastal and marine waters. In this study, we investigate hydro-climatic changes and impacts on the Baltic Sea by synthesizing multi-model climate projection data from the CORDEX regional downscaling initiative (EURO- and Arctic- CORDEX domains, http://www.cordex.org/). We identify key hydro-climatic variable outputs of these models and assess model performance with regard to their projected temporal and spatial change behavior and impacts on different scales and coastal-marine parts, up to the whole Baltic Sea. Model spreading, robustness and impact implications for the Baltic Sea system are investigated for and through further use in simulations of coastal-marine hydrodynamics and water quality based on these key output variables and their change projections. Climate model robustness in this context is assessed by inter-model spreading analysis and observation data comparisons, while projected change implications are assessed by forcing of linked hydrodynamic and water quality modeling of the Baltic Sea based on relevant hydro-climatic outputs for inland water runoff and waterborne nutrient loading to the Baltic sea, as well as for conditions in the sea itself. This focused synthesis and analysis of hydro-climatically relevant output data of regional climate models facilitates assessment of reliability and uncertainty in projections of driver-impact changes of key importance for Baltic Sea physical, water quality and ecological conditions and their future evolution.

Forecasting distributions of an aquatic invasive species (Nitellopsis obtusa) under future climate scenarios.

PubMed

Romero-Alvarez, Daniel; Escobar, Luis E; Varela, Sara; Larkin, Daniel J; Phelps, Nicholas B D

2017-01-01

Starry stonewort (Nitellopsis obtusa) is an alga that has emerged as an aquatic invasive species of concern in the United States. Where established, starry stonewort can interfere with recreational uses of water bodies and potentially have ecological impacts. Incipient invasion of starry stonewort in Minnesota provides an opportunity to predict future expansion in order to target early detection and strategic management. We used ecological niche models to identify suitable areas for starry stonewort in Minnesota based on global occurrence records and present-day and future climate conditions. We assessed sensitivity of forecasts to different parameters, using four emission scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6, and RCP 8.5) from five future climate models (i.e., CCSM, GISS, IPSL, MIROC, and MRI). From our niche model analyses, we found that (i) occurrences from the entire range, instead of occurrences restricted to the invaded range, provide more informed models; (ii) default settings in Maxent did not provide the best model; (iii) the model calibration area and its background samples impact model performance; (iv) model projections to future climate conditions should be restricted to analogous environments; and (v) forecasts in future climate conditions should include different future climate models and model calibration areas to better capture uncertainty in forecasts. Under present climate, the most suitable areas for starry stonewort are predicted to be found in central and southeastern Minnesota. In the future, suitable areas for starry stonewort are predicted to shift in geographic range under some future climate models and to shrink under others, with most permutations indicating a net decrease of the species' suitable range. Our suitability maps can serve to design short-term plans for surveillance and education, while future climate models suggest a plausible reduction of starry stonewort spread in the long-term if the trends in climate warming remain.

Variation in skin biology to climate in Shanghai, China.

PubMed

Liu, Xiaoping; Gao, Yanrui; Zhang, Yiyi; Wang, Xuemin

2017-09-01

To explore the relationship between climate and skin condition, and to investigate the variation of skin biology to climatic change. In total, 2005 healthy Chinese volunteers living in Shanghai (aged 13-69 years) were recruited. Transepidermal water loss (TEWL) and SCH were tested on six sites (forehead, cheek, nasolabial, inner forearm, dorsal hand, and palm) by noninvasive devices between January 2005 and December 2012. The corresponding climate data were recorded by local Weather Bureau. TEWL was increased with atmospheric pressure and decreased with temperature, steam pressure, and relative humidity (p < 0.05). SCH was increased with steam pressure and decreased with atmospheric pressure (p < 0.05); there was no obvious trend between SCH and temperature and SCH and relative humidity. To investigate the climate parameters together, we introduced these correlated factors into the multivariate linear regression model which demonstrated that temperature and steam pressure were main factors related to skin biological parameters. At different sites, the effect of climatic factors on skin biology was diverse. Skin biological parameters are associated with climatic factors. Different sites have different sensitivity to climate factors.

Nonstationary Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Drainge Infrastructure Coping with Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Byung Sik; Jeung, Se Jin; Lee, Dong Seop; Han, Woo Suk

2015-04-01

As the abnormal rainfall condition has been more and more frequently happen and serious by climate change and variabilities, the question whether the design of drainage system could be prepared with abnormal rainfall condition or not has been on the rise. Usually, the drainage system has been designed by rainfall I-D-F (Intensity-Duration-Frequency) curve with assumption that I-D-F curve is stationary. The design approach of the drainage system has limitation not to consider the extreme rainfall condition of which I-D-F curve is non-stationary by climate change and variabilities. Therefore, the assumption that the I-D-F curve is stationary to design drainage system maybe not available in the climate change period, because climate change has changed the characteristics of extremes rainfall event to be non-stationary. In this paper, design rainfall by rainfall duration and non-stationary I-D-F curve are derived by the conditional GEV distribution considering non-stationary of rainfall characteristics. Furthermore, the effect of designed peak flow with increase of rainfall intensity was analyzed by distributed rainfall-runoff model, S-RAT(Spatial Runoff Assessment Tool). Although there are some difference by rainfall duration, the traditional I-D-F curves underestimates the extreme rainfall events for high-frequency rainfall condition. As a result, this paper suggest that traditional I-D-F curves could not be suitable for the design of drainage system under climate change condition. Keywords : Drainage system, Climate Change, non-stationary, I-D-F curves This research was supported by a grant 'Development of multi-function debris flow control technique considering extreme rainfall event' [NEMA-Natural-2014-74] from the Natural Hazard Mitigation Research Group, National Emergency Management Agency of KOREA

An approach for assessing the sensitivity of floods to regional climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, James P.; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Wood, Eric F.

1992-06-01

A high visibility afforded climate change issues is recent years has led to conflicts between and among decision makers and scientists. Decision makers inevitably feel pressure to assess the effect of climate change on the public welfare, while most climate modelers are, to a greater or lesser degree, concerned about the extent to which known inaccuracies in their models limit or preclude the use of modeling results for policy making. The water resources sector affords a good example of the limitations of the use of alternative climate scenarios derived from GCMs for decision making. GCM simulations of precipitation agree poorly between GCMs, and GCM predictions of runoff and evapotranspiration are even more uncertain. Further, water resources managers must be concerned about hydrologic extremes (floods and droughts) which are much more difficult to predict than ``average'' conditions. Most studies of the sensitivity of water resource systems and operating policies to climate change to data have been based on simple perturbations of historic hydroclimatological time series to reflect the difference between large area GCM simulations for an altered climate (e.g., CO2 doubling) and a GCM simulation of present climate. Such approaches are especially limited for assessment of the sensitivity of water resources systems under extreme conditions, conditions, since the distribution of storm inter-arrival times, for instance, is kept identical to that observed in the historic past. Further, such approaches have generally been based on the difference between the GCM altered and present climates for a single grid cell, primarily because the GCM spatial scale is often much larger than the scale at which climate interpretations are desired. The use of single grid cell GCM results is considered inadvisable by many GCM modelers, who feel the spatial scale for which interpretation of GCM results is most reasonable is on the order of several grid cells. In this paper, we demonstrate an alternative approach to assessing the implications of altered climates as predicted by GCMs for extreme (flooding) conditions. The approach is based on the characterization of regional atmospheric circulation patterns through a weather typing procedure, from which a stochastic model of the weather class occurrences is formulated. Weather types are identified through a CART (Classification and Regression Tree) approach. Precipitation occurence/non-occurence at multiple precipitation station is then predicted through a second stage stochastic model. Precipitation amounts are predicted conditional on the weather class identified from the large area circulation information.

Integrated Analysis of Climate, Soil, Topography and Vegetative Growth in Iberian Viticultural Regions

PubMed Central

Fraga, Helder; Malheiro, Aureliano C.; Moutinho-Pereira, José; Cardoso, Rita M.; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Cancela, Javier J.; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Santos, João A.

2014-01-01

The Iberian viticultural regions are convened according to the Denomination of Origin (DO) and present different climates, soils, topography and management practices. All these elements influence the vegetative growth of different varieties throughout the peninsula, and are tied to grape quality and wine type. In the current study, an integrated analysis of climate, soil, topography and vegetative growth was performed for the Iberian DO regions, using state-of-the-art datasets. For climatic assessment, a categorized index, accounting for phenological/thermal development, water availability and grape ripening conditions was computed. Soil textural classes were established to distinguish soil types. Elevation and aspect (orientation) were also taken into account, as the leading topographic elements. A spectral vegetation index was used to assess grapevine vegetative growth and an integrated analysis of all variables was performed. The results showed that the integrated climate-soil-topography influence on vine performance is evident. Most Iberian vineyards are grown in temperate dry climates with loamy soils, presenting low vegetative growth. Vineyards in temperate humid conditions tend to show higher vegetative growth. Conversely, in cooler/warmer climates, lower vigour vineyards prevail and other factors, such as soil type and precipitation acquire more important roles in driving vigour. Vines in prevailing loamy soils are grown over a wide climatic diversity, suggesting that precipitation is the primary factor influencing vigour. The present assessment of terroir characteristics allows direct comparison among wine regions and may have great value to viticulturists, particularly under a changing climate. PMID:25251495

Integrated analysis of climate, soil, topography and vegetative growth in Iberian viticultural regions.

PubMed

Fraga, Helder; Malheiro, Aureliano C; Moutinho-Pereira, José; Cardoso, Rita M; Soares, Pedro M M; Cancela, Javier J; Pinto, Joaquim G; Santos, João A

2014-01-01

The Iberian viticultural regions are convened according to the Denomination of Origin (DO) and present different climates, soils, topography and management practices. All these elements influence the vegetative growth of different varieties throughout the peninsula, and are tied to grape quality and wine type. In the current study, an integrated analysis of climate, soil, topography and vegetative growth was performed for the Iberian DO regions, using state-of-the-art datasets. For climatic assessment, a categorized index, accounting for phenological/thermal development, water availability and grape ripening conditions was computed. Soil textural classes were established to distinguish soil types. Elevation and aspect (orientation) were also taken into account, as the leading topographic elements. A spectral vegetation index was used to assess grapevine vegetative growth and an integrated analysis of all variables was performed. The results showed that the integrated climate-soil-topography influence on vine performance is evident. Most Iberian vineyards are grown in temperate dry climates with loamy soils, presenting low vegetative growth. Vineyards in temperate humid conditions tend to show higher vegetative growth. Conversely, in cooler/warmer climates, lower vigour vineyards prevail and other factors, such as soil type and precipitation acquire more important roles in driving vigour. Vines in prevailing loamy soils are grown over a wide climatic diversity, suggesting that precipitation is the primary factor influencing vigour. The present assessment of terroir characteristics allows direct comparison among wine regions and may have great value to viticulturists, particularly under a changing climate.

Future projections of temperature and precipitation climatology for CORDEX-MENA domain using RegCM4.4

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozturk, Tugba; Turp, M. Tufan; Türkeş, Murat; Kurnaz, M. Levent

2018-07-01

In this study, we investigate changes in seasonal temperature and precipitation climatology of CORDEX Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region for three periods of 2010-2040, 2040-2070 and 2070-2100 with respect to the control period of 1970-2000 by using regional climate model simulations. Projections of future climate conditions are modeled by forcing Regional Climate Model, RegCM4.4 of the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) with two different CMIP5 global climate models. HadGEM2-ES global climate model of the Met Office Hadley Centre and MPI-ESM-MR global climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology were used to generate 50 km resolution data for the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Region 13. We test the seasonal time-scale performance of RegCM4.4 in simulating the observed climatology over domain of the MENA by using the output of two different global climate models. The projection results show relatively high increase of average temperatures from 3 °C up to 9 °C over the domain for far future (2070-2100). A strong decrease in precipitation is projected in almost all parts of the domain according to the output of the regional model forced by scenario outputs of two global models. Therefore, warmer and drier than present climate conditions are projected to occur more intensely over the CORDEX-MENA domain.

Climate and soil salinity in the deserts of Central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pankova, E. I.; Konyushkova, M. V.

2013-07-01

A comparative analysis of climatic and soil salinity characteristics of the deserts of Central Asia, including deserts of the Turan Depression, the Gobi Desert, and deserts of the Dzungar and Tarim depressions was performed. The climatic characteristics—the degree of aridity, the degree of continentality, and the amount and regime of precipitation—are different in these deserts. No direct relationships between the areas occupied by the automorphic salt-affected soils and the aridity of the climate are observed in the studied regions. In the automorphic landscapes of Asian deserts, the degree and chemistry of the soil salinization and the distribution of salt-affected soils are controlled by the history of the particular territories rather than by their modern climatic conditions. The presence and properties of the salt-bearing rocks and the eolian migration of salts play the most significant role. The deficit of moisture in the modern climate favors the preservation of salt accumulations in places of their origin. The specific features of the climate, including the regime of precipitation, affect the redistribution of salts in the profiles of automorphic salt-affected soils. An increase in the degree of climatic continentality is accompanied by the decrease in the intensity of weathering and initial accumulation of salts. A different situation is observed in the soils of hydromorphic desert landscapes, in which the degree of salinity of the surface horizons and the area occupied by salt-affected soils are directly influenced by the modern climatic conditions.

Regional climate response collaboratives: Multi-institutional support for climate resilience

USGS Publications Warehouse

Averyt, Kristen; Derner, Justin D.; Dilling, Lisa; Guerrero, Rafael; Joyce, Linda A.; McNeeley, Shannon; McNie, Elizabeth; Morisette, Jeffrey T.; Ojima, Dennis; O'Malley, Robin; Peck, Dannele; Ray, Andrea J.; Reeves, Matt; Travis, William

2018-01-01

Federal investments by U.S. agencies to enhance climate resilience at regional scales grew over the past decade (2010s). To maximize efficiency and effectiveness in serving multiple sectors and scales, it has become critical to leverage existing agency-specific research, infrastructure, and capacity while avoiding redundancy. We discuss lessons learned from a multi-institutional “regional climate response collaborative” that comprises three different federally-supported climate service entities in the Rocky Mountain west and northern plains region. These lessons include leveraging different strengths of each partner, creating deliberate mechanisms to increase cross-entity communication and joint ownership of projects, and placing a common priority on stakeholder-relevant research and outcomes. We share the conditions that fostered successful collaboration, which can be transferred elsewhere, and suggest mechanisms for overcoming potential barriers. Synergies are essential for producing actionable research that informs climate-related decisions for stakeholders and ultimately enhances climate resilience at regional scales.

More rapid climate change promotes evolutionary rescue through selection for increased dispersal distance

PubMed Central

Boeye, Jeroen; Travis, Justin M J; Stoks, Robby; Bonte, Dries

2013-01-01

Species can either adapt to new conditions induced by climate change or shift their range in an attempt to track optimal environmental conditions. During current range shifts, species are simultaneously confronted with a second major anthropogenic disturbance, landscape fragmentation. Using individual-based models with a shifting climate window, we examine the effect of different rates of climate change on the evolution of dispersal distances through changes in the genetically determined dispersal kernel. Our results demonstrate that the rate of climate change is positively correlated to the evolved dispersal distances although too fast climate change causes the population to crash. When faced with realistic rates of climate change, greater dispersal distances evolve than those required for the population to keep track of the climate, thereby maximizing population size. Importantly, the greater dispersal distances that evolve when climate change is more rapid, induce evolutionary rescue by facilitating the population in crossing large gaps in the landscape. This could ensure population persistence in case of range shifting in fragmented landscapes. Furthermore, we highlight problems in using invasion speed as a proxy for potential range shifting abilities under climate change. PMID:23467649

Impact of climate change on water balance components in Mediterranean rainfed olive orchards under tillage or cover crop soil management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodríguez-Carretero, María Teresa; Lorite, Ignacio J.; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita; Dosio, Alessandro; Gómez, José A.

2013-04-01

The rainfed olive orchards in Southern Spain constitute the main socioeconomic system of the Mediterranean Spanish agriculture. These systems have an elevated level of complexity and require the accurate characterization of crop, climate and soil components for a correct management. It is common the inclusion of cover crops (usually winter cereals or natural cover) intercalated between the olive rows in order to reduce water erosion. Saving limited available water requires specific management, mowing or killing these cover crops in early spring. Thus, under the semi-arid conditions in Southern Spain the management of the cover crops in rainfed olive orchards is essential to avoid a severe impact to the olive orchards yield through depletion of soil water. In order to characterize this agricultural system, a complete water balance model has been developed, calibrated and validated for the semi-arid conditions of Southern Spain, called WABOL (Abazi et al., 2013). In this complex and fragile system, the climate change constitutes a huge threat for its sustainability, currently limited by the availability of water resources, and its forecasted reduction for Mediterranean environments in Southern Spain. The objective of this study was to simulate the impact of climate change on the different components of the water balance in these representative double cropping systems: transpiration of the olive orchard and cover crop, runoff, deep percolation and soil water content. Four climatic scenarios from the FP6 European Project ENSEMBLES were first bias corrected for temperatures and precipitation (Dosio and Paruolo, 2011; Dosio et al., 2012) and, subsequently, used as inputs for the WABOL model for five olive orchard fields located in Southern Spain under different conditions of crop, climate, soils and management, in order to consider as much as possible of the variability detected in the Spanish olive orchards. The first results indicate the significant effect of the cover crop on the transpiration of the olive orchard, indicating that a correct water and soil management is crucial for these systems especially under climate change conditions. Thus, a significant reduction of transpiration was detected when the cover crops were implanted. When the climatic conditions were more limited (reductions of around 21% for the annual precipitation and increases around 13% for reference evapotranspiration), the impact on olive orchards were critical, affecting seriously the profitability of the olive orchards. In this context, cover crops can be considered as part of adaptation strategies. Further studies will be required for the determination of optimal species and varieties to be used as cover crops to reduce the impact of climate change on olive orchards under semi-arid conditions. References Abazi U, Lorite IJ, Cárceles B, Martínez-Raya A, Durán VH, Francia JR, Gómez JA (2013) WABOL: A conceptual water balance model for analyzing rainfall water use in olive orchards under different soil and cover crop Management strategies. Computers and Electronics in Agriculture 91:35-48 Dosio A, Paruolo P (2011) Bias correction of the ENSEMBLES high-resolution climate change projections for use by impact models: Evaluation on the present climate. Journal of Geophysical Research, V 116, D16106, doi:10.1029/2011JD015934 Dosio A, Paruolo P, Rojas R (2012) Bias correction of the ENSEMBLES high resolution climate change projections for use by impact models: Analysis of the climate change signal. Journal of Geophysical Research, V 117, D17, doi: 10.1029/2012JD017968

Ensemble of European regional climate simulations for the winter of 2013 and 2014 from HadAM3P-RM3P

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaller, Nathalie; Sparrow, Sarah N.; Massey, Neil R.; Bowery, Andy; Miller, Jonathan; Wilson, Simon; Wallom, David C. H.; Otto, Friederike E. L.

2018-04-01

Large data sets used to study the impact of anthropogenic climate change on the 2013/14 floods in the UK are provided. The data consist of perturbed initial conditions simulations using the Weather@Home regional climate modelling framework. Two different base conditions, Actual, including atmospheric conditions (anthropogenic greenhouse gases and human induced aerosols) as at present and Natural, with these forcings all removed are available. The data set is made up of 13 different ensembles (2 actual and 11 natural) with each having more than 7500 members. The data is available as NetCDF V3 files representing monthly data within the period of interest (1st Dec 2013 to 15th February 2014) for both a specified European region at a 50 km horizontal resolution and globally at N96 resolution. The data is stored within the UK Natural and Environmental Research Council Centre for Environmental Data Analysis repository.

Evaluating the climate capabilities of the coastal areas of southeastern Iran for tourism: a case study on port of Chabahar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabzevari, Azadeh Arbabi; Miri, Morteza; Raziei, Tayeb; Oroji, Hassan; Rahimi, Mojtaba

2018-03-01

The present study aims to evaluate the influence of climate conditions on tourism in the port of Chabahar, southeastern Iran, using the climate comfort indices (CIT, PMV, and TCI) and the field data relative to the tourist satisfaction. According to the computed TCI, the autumn-winter season (October-April) is climatically favorable for tourism in Chabahar, but it is ideal during January to March. Based on the computed PMV index, the studied region is in the range of climate comfort in most parts of the year. However, when the PMV thermal comfort limits (- 0.5 < PMV < 0.5) and the PPD limits (0 < PPD < 10) are considered, only the March and November are included in the thermal comfort range. The CIT index also indicates that all months of the year are acceptable for tourism that does not coincide with the reality of the region. However, by blending the PMV and the tourist's degree of satisfaction, a slight modification was made to the CIT index to better represent the reality of the region regarding the climate comfort. The modified CIT gave a different result, reflecting the importance of tourists' perceptions in defining the climate comfort rather than merely relying on the climate variables. The modified CIT also suggests November-March as a period with favorable to ideal climate condition for tourism in Chabahar which is a more realistic assessment of climate condition of the region as perceived by the tourists interviewed.

Modeling Climate Responses to Spectral Solar Forcing on Centennial and Decadal Time Scales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wen, G.; Cahalan, R.; Rind, D.; Jonas, J.; Pilewskie, P.; Harder, J.

2012-01-01

We report a series of experiments to explore clima responses to two types of solar spectral forcing on decadal and centennial time scales - one based on prior reconstructions, and another implied by recent observations from the SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) SIM (Spectral 1rradiance Monitor). We apply these forcings to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Global/Middle Atmosphere Model (GCMAM). that couples atmosphere with ocean, and has a model top near the mesopause, allowing us to examine the full response to the two solar forcing scenarios. We show different climate responses to the two solar forCing scenarios on decadal time scales and also trends on centennial time scales. Differences between solar maximum and solar minimum conditions are highlighted, including impacts of the time lagged reSponse of the lower atmosphere and ocean. This contrasts with studies that assume separate equilibrium conditions at solar maximum and minimum. We discuss model feedback mechanisms involved in the solar forced climate variations.

Ectomycorrhizal Communities on the Roots of Two Beech (Fagus sylvatica) Populations from Contrasting Climates Differ in Nitrogen Acquisition in a Common Environment.

PubMed

Leberecht, Martin; Dannenmann, Michael; Gschwendtner, Silvia; Bilela, Silvija; Meier, Rudolf; Simon, Judy; Rennenberg, Heinz; Schloter, Michael; Polle, Andrea

2015-09-01

Beech (Fagus sylvatica), a dominant forest species in Central Europe, competes for nitrogen with soil microbes and suffers from N limitation under dry conditions. We hypothesized that ectomycorrhizal communities and the free-living rhizosphere microbes from beech trees from sites with two contrasting climatic conditions exhibit differences in N acquisition that contribute to differences in host N uptake and are related to differences in host belowground carbon allocation. To test these hypotheses, young trees from the natural regeneration of two genetically similar populations, one from dryer conditions (located in an area with a southwest exposure [SW trees]) and the other from a cooler, moist climate (located in an area with a northeast exposure [NE trees]), were transplanted into a homogeneous substrate in the same environment and labeled with (13)CO2 and (15)NH4 (+). Free-living rhizosphere microbes were characterized by marker genes for the N cycle, but no differences between the rhizospheres of SW or NE trees were found. Lower (15)N enrichment was found in the ectomycorrhizal communities of the NE tree communities than the SW tree communities, whereas no significant differences in (15)N enrichment were observed for nonmycorrhizal root tips of SW and NE trees. Neither the ectomycorrhizal communities nor the nonmycorrhizal root tips originating from NE and SW trees showed differences in (13)C signatures. Because the level of (15)N accumulation in fine roots and the amount transferred to leaves were lower in NE trees than SW trees, our data support the suggestion that the ectomycorrhizal community influences N transfer to its host and demonstrate that the fungal community from the dry condition was more efficient in N acquisition when environmental constraints were relieved. These findings highlight the importance of adapted ectomycorrhizal communities for forest nutrition in a changing climate. Copyright © 2015, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

Ectomycorrhizal Communities on the Roots of Two Beech (Fagus sylvatica) Populations from Contrasting Climates Differ in Nitrogen Acquisition in a Common Environment

PubMed Central

Leberecht, Martin; Dannenmann, Michael; Gschwendtner, Silvia; Bilela, Silvija; Meier, Rudolf; Simon, Judy; Rennenberg, Heinz; Schloter, Michael

2015-01-01

Beech (Fagus sylvatica), a dominant forest species in Central Europe, competes for nitrogen with soil microbes and suffers from N limitation under dry conditions. We hypothesized that ectomycorrhizal communities and the free-living rhizosphere microbes from beech trees from sites with two contrasting climatic conditions exhibit differences in N acquisition that contribute to differences in host N uptake and are related to differences in host belowground carbon allocation. To test these hypotheses, young trees from the natural regeneration of two genetically similar populations, one from dryer conditions (located in an area with a southwest exposure [SW trees]) and the other from a cooler, moist climate (located in an area with a northeast exposure [NE trees]), were transplanted into a homogeneous substrate in the same environment and labeled with 13CO2 and 15NH4+. Free-living rhizosphere microbes were characterized by marker genes for the N cycle, but no differences between the rhizospheres of SW or NE trees were found. Lower 15N enrichment was found in the ectomycorrhizal communities of the NE tree communities than the SW tree communities, whereas no significant differences in 15N enrichment were observed for nonmycorrhizal root tips of SW and NE trees. Neither the ectomycorrhizal communities nor the nonmycorrhizal root tips originating from NE and SW trees showed differences in 13C signatures. Because the level of 15N accumulation in fine roots and the amount transferred to leaves were lower in NE trees than SW trees, our data support the suggestion that the ectomycorrhizal community influences N transfer to its host and demonstrate that the fungal community from the dry condition was more efficient in N acquisition when environmental constraints were relieved. These findings highlight the importance of adapted ectomycorrhizal communities for forest nutrition in a changing climate. PMID:26092464

Airborne viable fungi in school environments in different climatic regions - A review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salonen, Heidi; Duchaine, Caroline; Mazaheri, Mandana; Clifford, Sam; Lappalainen, Sanna; Reijula, Kari; Morawska, Lidia

2015-03-01

Elevated levels of fungi in indoor environments have been linked with mould/moisture damage in building structures. However, there is a lack of information about "normal" concentrations and flora as well as guidelines of viable fungi in the school environment in different climatic conditions. We have reviewed existing guidelines for indoor fungi and the current knowledge of the concentrations and flora of viable fungi in different climatic areas, the impact of the local factors on concentrations and flora of viable fungi in school environments. Meta-regression was performed to estimate the average behaviour for each analysis of interest, showing wide variation in the mean concentrations in outdoor and indoor school environments (range: 101-103 cfu/m3). These concentrations were significantly higher for both outdoors and indoors in the moderate than in the continental climatic area, showing that the climatic condition was a determinant for the concentrations of airborne viable fungi. The most common fungal species both in the moderate and continental area were Cladosporium spp. and Penicillium spp. The suggested few quantitative guidelines for indoor air viable fungi for school buildings are much lower than for residential areas. This review provides a synthesis, which can be used to guide the interpretation of the fungi measurements results and help to find indications of mould/moisture in school building structures.

Resilience of urban ambulance services under future climate, meteorology and air pollution scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pope, Francis; Chapman, Lee; Fisher, Paul; Mahmood, Marliyyah; Sangkharat, Kamolrat; Thomas, Neil; Thornes, John

2017-04-01

Ambulances are an integral part of a country's infrastructure ensuring its citizens and visitors are kept healthy. The impact of weather, climate and climate change on ambulance services around the world has received increasing attention in recent years but most studies have been area specific and there is a need to establish basic relationships between ambulance data (both response and illness data) and meteorological parameters. In this presentation, the effects of temperature, other meteorological and air pollution variables on ambulance call out rates for different medical categories will be investigated. We use ambulance call out obtained from various ambulance services worldwide which have significantly different meteorologies, climatologies and pollution conditions. A time-series analysis is utilized to understand the relation between meteorological conditions, air pollutants and different call out categories. We will present findings that support the opinion that ambulance attendance call outs records are an effective and well-timed source of data and can be used for health early warning systems. Furthermore the presented results can much improve our understanding of the relationships between meteorology, climate, air pollution and human health thereby allowing for better prediction of ambulance use through the application of long and short-term weather, climate and pollution forecasts.

How will climate change affect vine behaviour in different soils?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leibar, Urtzi; Aizpurua, Ana; Morales, Fermin; Pascual, Inmaculada; Unamunzaga, Olatz

2014-05-01

Various agricultural sectors are sensitive to projected climate change. In this sense, the strong link between climate and grapevine phenology and berry quality suggests a relevant impact. Within the concept of terroir, climate is a factor that influences ripening of a specific variety and resulting wine style. Furthermore, the effect of soil on grape potential is complex, because the soil acts on grapevine water and nutrient supply, and influences root zone temperature. The aim of this work was to evaluate the effect of climate change (increased CO2, higher temperature and lower relative humidity), soil texture and irrigation on the physiology, yield and berry quality of grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) cv. Tempranillo. A greenhouse experiment was carried out with potted, own-rooted fruit-bearing cuttings. Three factors were studied: a) climate change (700 μmol CO2 mol-1 air, 28/18°C and 45/65% day/night relative humidity) vs. current conditions (375 μmol CO2 mol-1 air, 24/14ºC and 33/53% day/night relative humidity), b) soil texture (9, 18 and 36% soil clay content) and c) irrigation; well-irrigated (20-35% of soil water content) vs. water deficit (60% of the water applied to the irrigated plants). Berries were harvested at ripeness (21-23 ºBrix). Climate change shortened the time between veraison and full maturity up to 9 days and reduced the number of berries per bunch. Grapes grown under climate change conditions had higher pH and lower acidity (due to malic and tartaric acids), anthocyanins content and colour intensity. Water-deficit delayed ripening up to 10 days and reduced final leaf area and root weight. Berries from water stressed plants had an increased skin/pulp ratio and pH, and lower acidity (malic acid) and polyphenol content. Regarding soil texture, plants grown in the soil with lower clay content increased root fresh weight and had higher total anthocyanins content. There were no interactions between factors. In conclusion, both climate change and water-deficit had a clear influence on the grape phenological development and composition, whilst soil affected root configuration and anthocyanins concentration. Effects of climate change and water availability on different soil conditions should be considered to take full advantage or mitigate the consequences of the future climate conditions.

Drug formulations intended for the global market should be tested for stability under tropical climatic conditions.

PubMed

Risha, P G; Vervaet, C; Vergote, G; Bortel, L Van; Remon, J P

2003-06-01

The quality of drugs imported into developing countries having a tropical climate may be adversely affected if their formulations have not been optimized for stability under these conditions. The present study investigated the influence of tropical climate conditions (class IV: 40 degrees C, 75% relative humidity) on the drug content, in vitro dissolution and oral bioavailability of different formulations of two essential drugs marketed in Tanzania: diclofenac sodium and ciprofloxacin tablets. Before and after 3 and 6 months storage under class IV conditions the drug content and in vitro dissolution were evaluated using United States Pharmacopoeia (USP) 24 methods. Following a randomized four-period cross-over study, the pharmacokinetic parameters of drug formulations stored for 3 months under class IV conditions were compared with those stored at ambient conditions. Drug content and drug release from all tested ciprofloxacin formulations were within USP-24 requirements and remained stable during storage at simulated tropical conditions. Oral bioavailability was also not influenced by tropical conditions. The dissolution rate of two diclofenac formulations (Diclo 50 manufactured by Camden and Dicloflame 50 manufactured by Intas) reduced significantly during storage under class IV conditions. After oral administration Camden tablets stored for 3 months under class IV conditions showed a reduction in C(max) (90% CI of C(max) ratio: 0.59 - 0.76). This reduction was smaller than expected based on the in vitro tests. Some drug formulations imported into Tanzania are not optimized for stability in a tropical climate. Manufacturers and regulatory authorities should pay more attention to the WHO recommendations for testing the stability of drugs under tropical climate conditions. Efforts should be made to improve the in vitro tests to better predict the bioavailability.

Shifts on reproductive phenology of tropical cerrado savanna trees and climate changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morellato, Patricia

2010-05-01

Phenology is the study of cyclic biological events and its relationship to abiotic factors. Timing of flowering, fruiting and leafing is highly correlated to environmental factors such as temperature, precipitation, irradiance and isolation. Accordingly, any change in these factors may have a direct effect on the initiation, intensity and duration of different phenophases. Tropical phenology has not contributed much for climatic change research since historical data sets are scarce and the absence of sharp seasons and distinct factors driving phenology makes difficult the detection of changes over time. One way to have insights on climate driven phenology shifts on tropical plants is through the comparison of plant phenology under different environmental conditions. Fragmentation of natural landscape has exposed plants to edge effects - the interaction between two adjacent ecosystems, when the two are separated by an abrupt transition - the edge, including both abiotic and biological changes on environmental conditions that likely affect plant phenology. The microclimatic conditions along edges have important direct biological effects on the reproductive phenology and fitness of plant species. One can expected that the abiotic edge effects on plant phenology may be similar to some extent to certain effects induced by climate change on plant phenology since both involve shifts on environmental conditions. Due to the threatened status and rich biodiversity of Brazilian Neotropical savanna, or the Brazilian Cerrado, the present study aimed to understand edge effects on cerrado savanna species. We compared micro environmental factors and phenology of several species on the edge and in the interior of cerrado savanna. Our first results indicated that shifts on the micro environmental condition may have driven changes in time, duration and intensity of species phenology and may give us insights on savanna responses to climate changes.

Influence of soil and climate heterogeneity on the performance of economic instruments for reducing nitrate leaching from agriculture.

PubMed

Peña-Haro, Salvador; García-Prats, Alberto; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

2014-11-15

Economic instruments can be used to control groundwater nitrate pollution due to the intensive use of fertilizers in agriculture. In order to test their efficiency on the reduction of nitrate leaching, we propose an approach based on the combined use of production and pollution functions to derive the impacts on the expected farmer response of these instruments. Some of the most important factors influencing nitrate leaching and crop yield are the type of soil and the climatic conditions. Crop yield and nitrate leaching responses to different soil and climatic conditions were classified by means of a cluster analysis, and crops located in different areas but with similar response were grouped for the analysis. We use a spatial economic optimization model to evaluate the potential of taxes on nitrogen fertilizers, water prices, and taxes on nitrate emissions to reduce nitrate pollution, as well as their economic impact in terms of social welfare and farmers' net benefits. The method was applied to the Mancha Oriental System (MOS) in Spain, a large area with different soil types and climatic conditions. We divided the study area into zones of homogeneous crop production and nitrate leaching properties. Results show spatially different responses of crop growth and nitrate leaching, proving how the cost-effectiveness of pollution control instruments is contingent upon the spatial heterogeneities of the problem. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sensitivity of Water Scarcity Events to ENSO-Driven Climate Variability at the Global Scale

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Eisner, S.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

2015-01-01

Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consumptive water use and, in some regions, climate change. Although it is well-known that El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects patterns of precipitation and drought at global and regional scales, little attention has yet been paid to the impacts of climate variability on water scarcity conditions, despite its importance for adaptation planning. Therefore, we present the first global-scale sensitivity assessment of water scarcity to ENSO, the most dominant signal of climate variability. We show that over the time period 1961-2010, both water availability and water scarcity conditions are significantly correlated with ENSO-driven climate variability over a large proportion of the global land area (> 28.1 %); an area inhabited by more than 31.4% of the global population. We also found, however, that climate variability alone is often not enough to trigger the actual incidence of water scarcity events. The sensitivity of a region to water scarcity events, expressed in terms of land area or population exposed, is determined by both hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Currently, the population actually impacted by water scarcity events consists of 39.6% (CTA: consumption-to-availability ratio) and 41.1% (WCI: water crowding index) of the global population, whilst only 11.4% (CTA) and 15.9% (WCI) of the global population is at the same time living in areas sensitive to ENSO-driven climate variability. These results are contrasted, however, by differences in growth rates found under changing socioeconomic conditions, which are relatively high in regions exposed to water scarcity events. Given the correlations found between ENSO and water availability and scarcity conditions, and the relative developments of water scarcity impacts under changing socioeconomic conditions, we suggest that there is potential for ENSO-based adaptation and risk reduction that could be facilitated by more research on this emerging topic.

Cyclones and extreme windstorm events over Europe under climate change: Global and regional climate model diagnostics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leckebusch, G. C.; Ulbrich, U.

2003-04-01

More than any changes of the climate system mean state conditions, the development of extreme events may influence social, economic and legal aspects of our society. This linkage results from the impact of extreme climate events (natural hazards) on environmental systems which again are directly linked to human activities. Prominent examples from the recent past are the record breaking rainfall amounts of August 2002 in central Europe which produced widespread floodings or the wind storm Lothar of December 1999. Within the MICE (Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes) project framework an assessment of the impact of changes in extremes will be done. The investigation is carried out for several different impact categories as agriculture, energy use and property damage. Focus is laid on the diagnostics of GCM and RCM simulations under different climate change scenarios. In this study we concentrate on extreme windstorms and their relationship to cyclone activity in the global HADCM3 as well as in the regional HADRM3 model under two climate change scenarios (SRESA2a, B2a). In order to identify cyclones we used an objective algorithm from Murry and Simmonds which was widely tested under several different conditions. A slight increase in the occurrence of systems is identified above northern parts of central Europe for both scenarios. For more severe systems (core pressure < 990 hPa) we find an increase for western Europe. Strong wind events can be defined via different percentile values of the windspeed (e.g. above the 95 percentile). By this means the relationship between strong wind events and cyclones is also investigated. For several regions (e.g. Germany, France, Spain) a shift to more deep cyclones connected with an increasing number of strong wind events is found.

Regional paleofire regimes affected by non-uniform climate, vegetation and human drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blarquez, Olivier; Ali, Adam A.; Girardin, Martin P.; Grondin, Pierre; Fréchette, Bianca; Bergeron, Yves; Hély, Christelle

2015-09-01

Climate, vegetation and humans act on biomass burning at different spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we used a dense network of sedimentary charcoal records from eastern Canada to reconstruct regional biomass burning history over the last 7000 years at the scale of four potential vegetation types: open coniferous forest/tundra, boreal coniferous forest, boreal mixedwood forest and temperate forest. The biomass burning trajectories were compared with regional climate trends reconstructed from general circulation models, tree biomass reconstructed from pollen series, and human population densities. We found that non-uniform climate, vegetation and human drivers acted on regional biomass burning history. In the open coniferous forest/tundra and dense coniferous forest, the regional biomass burning was primarily shaped by gradual establishment of less climate-conducive burning conditions over 5000 years. In the mixed boreal forest an increasing relative proportion of flammable conifers in landscapes since 2000 BP contributed to maintaining biomass burning constant despite climatic conditions less favourable to fires. In the temperate forest, biomass burning was uncoupled with climatic conditions and the main driver was seemingly vegetation until European colonization, i.e. 300 BP. Tree biomass and thus fuel accumulation modulated fire activity, an indication that biomass burning is fuel-dependent and notably upon long-term co-dominance shifts between conifers and broadleaf trees.

A second generation climate index for tourism (CIT): specification and verification.

PubMed

de Freitas, C R; Scott, Daniel; McBoyle, Geoff

2008-05-01

Climate is a key resource for many types of tourism and as such can be measured and evaluated. An index approach is required for this task because of the multifaceted nature of weather and the complex ways that weather variables come together to give meaning to climate for tourism. Here we address the deficiencies of past indices by devising a theoretically sound and empirically tested method that integrates the various facets of climate and weather into a single index called the Climate Index for Tourism (CIT). CIT rates the climate resource for activities that are highly climate/weather sensitive, specifically, beach "sun, sea and sand" (3S) holidays. CIT integrates thermal (T), aesthetic (A) and physical (P) facets of weather, which are combined in a weather typology matrix to determine a climate satisfaction rating that ranges from very poor (1=unacceptable) to very good (7=optimal). Parameter A refers to sky condition and P to rain or high wind. T is the body-atmosphere energy balance that integrates the environmental and physiological thermal variables, such as solar heat load, heat loss by convection (wind) and by evaporation (sweating), longwave radiation exchange and metabolic heat (activity level). Rather than use T as a net energy (calorific) value, CIT requires that it be expressed as thermal sensation using the standard nine-point ASHRAE scale ("very hot" to "very cold"). In this way, any of the several body-atmosphere energy balance schemes available may be used, maximizing the flexibility of the index. A survey (N=331) was used to validate the initial CIT. Respondents were asked to rate nine thermal states (T) with different sky conditions (A). They were also asked to assess the impact of high winds or prolonged rain on the perceived quality of the overall weather condition. The data was analysed statistically to complete the weather typology matrix, which covered every possible combination of T, A and P. Conditions considered to be optimal (CIT class 6-7) for 3S tourism were those that were "slightly warm" with clear skies or scattered cloud (

A second generation climate index for tourism (CIT): specification and verification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Freitas, C. R.; Scott, Daniel; McBoyle, Geoff

2008-05-01

Climate is a key resource for many types of tourism and as such can be measured and evaluated. An index approach is required for this task because of the multifaceted nature of weather and the complex ways that weather variables come together to give meaning to climate for tourism. Here we address the deficiencies of past indices by devising a theoretically sound and empirically tested method that integrates the various facets of climate and weather into a single index called the Climate Index for Tourism (CIT). CIT rates the climate resource for activities that are highly climate/weather sensitive, specifically, beach “sun, sea and sand” (3S) holidays. CIT integrates thermal (T), aesthetic (A) and physical (P) facets of weather, which are combined in a weather typology matrix to determine a climate satisfaction rating that ranges from very poor (1 = unacceptable) to very good (7 = optimal). Parameter A refers to sky condition and P to rain or high wind. T is the body-atmosphere energy balance that integrates the environmental and physiological thermal variables, such as solar heat load, heat loss by convection (wind) and by evaporation (sweating), longwave radiation exchange and metabolic heat (activity level). Rather than use T as a net energy (calorific) value, CIT requires that it be expressed as thermal sensation using the standard nine-point ASHRAE scale (“very hot” to “very cold”). In this way, any of the several body-atmosphere energy balance schemes available may be used, maximizing the flexibility of the index. A survey ( N = 331) was used to validate the initial CIT. Respondents were asked to rate nine thermal states (T) with different sky conditions (A). They were also asked to assess the impact of high winds or prolonged rain on the perceived quality of the overall weather condition. The data was analysed statistically to complete the weather typology matrix, which covered every possible combination of T, A and P. Conditions considered to be optimal (CIT class 6-7) for 3S tourism were those that were “slightly warm” with clear skies or scattered cloud (≤25% cloud). Acceptable conditions (CIT = 4-5) fell within the thermal range “indifferent” to “hot” even when the sky was overcast. Wind equal to or in excess of 6 m/s (22 km/h) or rain resulted in the CIT rating dropping to 1 or 2 (unacceptable) and was thus an override of pleasant thermal conditions. Further cross-cultural research is underway to examine whether climate preferences vary with different social and cultural tourist segments internationally.

Outdoor human thermal perception in various climates: A comprehensive review of approaches, methods and quantification.

PubMed

Potchter, Oded; Cohen, Pninit; Lin, Tzu-Ping; Matzarakis, Andreas

2018-08-01

Over the past century, many research studies have been conducted in an attempt to define thermal conditions for humans in the outdoor environment and to grade thermal sensation. Consequently, a large number of indices have been proposed. The examination of human thermal indices by thermal subjective perception has become recently a methodical issue to confirm the accuracy, applicability and validation of human thermal indices. The aims of this study are: (a) to review studies containing both calculated human thermal conditions and subjective thermal perception in the outdoor environment (b) to identify the most used human thermal indices for evaluating human thermal perception (c) to examine the relation between human thermal comfort range and outdoor thermal environment conditions and (d) to compare between categories of thermal sensation in different climatic zones based on subjective perception and levels of thermal strain. A comprehensive literature review identified 110 peer-reviewed articles which investigated in-situ thermal conditions versus subjective thermal perception during 2001-2017. It seems that out of 165 human thermal indices that have been developed, only 4 (PET, PMV, UTCI, SET*) are widely in use for outdoor thermal perception studies. Examination of the relation between human thermal comfort range and outdoor thermal environment conditions for selective indices in different climatic zones shows that the range of the thermal comfort or dis-comfort is affected by the outdoor thermal environment. For the PET index, the "neutral" range for hot climates of 24-26°C is agreed by 95% of the studies where for cold climate, the "neutral" range of 15-20°C is agreed by 89% of the studies. For the UTCI, the "no thermal stress" category is common to all climates. The "no stress category" of 16-23°C is agreed by 80% of the case studies, while 100% of the case studies agreed that the range is between 18 and 23°C. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pliocene climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, Harry J.; Caballero-Gill, R. P.

2010-01-01

The Pliocene Epoch, 5.3 Ma to 1.8 Ma, was a time when paleoclimate conditions ranged from very warm, equable climates (on a global scale), rhythmically varying every 40,000 years, to high-amplitude glacial-interglacial cycles that led to the “Ice Ages” of the Pleistocene. Evidence for paleoclimate conditions comes from fossils, geochemical data, and the integration of these data with sophisticated numerical models. The Pliocene exhibited a range in atmospheric CO2 concentrations with highs estimated to be at most ~425 ppm in the early Pliocene followed by overall decrease toward preindustrial levels by the close of the Pliocene Epoch (Pagani et al. 2010). Sea levels were estimated to be 25m higher than present day and the size and position of ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica were decidedly different from today. On the other hand, by the mid-Pliocene, the majority of fauna and flora as well as continental configurations were basically the same as today. Man’s ability to adapt to or mitigate the effects of future climate require a deep understanding of the rates and magnitude of future climate change on an ever finer scale. Since conditions projected for the end of this century are not in the human experience, we depend upon a combination of numerical climate models and comparison to analogous conditions in the geologic past. The Pliocene contains what might be the closest analog to climate conditions expected in the near future, and therefore understanding the Pliocene is not only of academic interest but essential for human adaptation.

A collection of European sweet cherry phenology data for assessing climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wenden, Bénédicte; Campoy, José Antonio; Lecourt, Julien; López Ortega, Gregorio; Blanke, Michael; Radičević, Sanja; Schüller, Elisabeth; Spornberger, Andreas; Christen, Danilo; Magein, Hugo; Giovannini, Daniela; Campillo, Carlos; Malchev, Svetoslav; Peris, José Miguel; Meland, Mekjell; Stehr, Rolf; Charlot, Gérard; Quero-García, José

2016-12-01

Professional and scientific networks built around the production of sweet cherry (Prunus avium L.) led to the collection of phenology data for a wide range of cultivars grown in experimental sites characterized by highly contrasted climatic conditions. We present a dataset of flowering and maturity dates, recorded each year for one tree when available, or the average of several trees for each cultivar, over a period of 37 years (1978-2015). Such a dataset is extremely valuable for characterizing the phenological response to climate change, and the plasticity of the different cultivars' behaviour under different environmental conditions. In addition, this dataset will support the development of predictive models for sweet cherry phenology exploitable at the continental scale, and will help anticipate breeding strategies in order to maintain and improve sweet cherry production in Europe.

A collection of European sweet cherry phenology data for assessing climate change.

PubMed

Wenden, Bénédicte; Campoy, José Antonio; Lecourt, Julien; López Ortega, Gregorio; Blanke, Michael; Radičević, Sanja; Schüller, Elisabeth; Spornberger, Andreas; Christen, Danilo; Magein, Hugo; Giovannini, Daniela; Campillo, Carlos; Malchev, Svetoslav; Peris, José Miguel; Meland, Mekjell; Stehr, Rolf; Charlot, Gérard; Quero-García, José

2016-12-06

Professional and scientific networks built around the production of sweet cherry (Prunus avium L.) led to the collection of phenology data for a wide range of cultivars grown in experimental sites characterized by highly contrasted climatic conditions. We present a dataset of flowering and maturity dates, recorded each year for one tree when available, or the average of several trees for each cultivar, over a period of 37 years (1978-2015). Such a dataset is extremely valuable for characterizing the phenological response to climate change, and the plasticity of the different cultivars' behaviour under different environmental conditions. In addition, this dataset will support the development of predictive models for sweet cherry phenology exploitable at the continental scale, and will help anticipate breeding strategies in order to maintain and improve sweet cherry production in Europe.

A collection of European sweet cherry phenology data for assessing climate change

PubMed Central

Wenden, Bénédicte; Campoy, José Antonio; Lecourt, Julien; López Ortega, Gregorio; Blanke, Michael; Radičević, Sanja; Schüller, Elisabeth; Spornberger, Andreas; Christen, Danilo; Magein, Hugo; Giovannini, Daniela; Campillo, Carlos; Malchev, Svetoslav; Peris, José Miguel; Meland, Mekjell; Stehr, Rolf; Charlot, Gérard; Quero-García, José

2016-01-01

Professional and scientific networks built around the production of sweet cherry (Prunus avium L.) led to the collection of phenology data for a wide range of cultivars grown in experimental sites characterized by highly contrasted climatic conditions. We present a dataset of flowering and maturity dates, recorded each year for one tree when available, or the average of several trees for each cultivar, over a period of 37 years (1978–2015). Such a dataset is extremely valuable for characterizing the phenological response to climate change, and the plasticity of the different cultivars’ behaviour under different environmental conditions. In addition, this dataset will support the development of predictive models for sweet cherry phenology exploitable at the continental scale, and will help anticipate breeding strategies in order to maintain and improve sweet cherry production in Europe. PMID:27922629

From South to North: flowering phenological responses at different geographical latitudes in 12 European countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szabó, Barbara; Lehoczky, Annamária; Filzmoser, Peter; Templ, Matthias; Szentkirályi, Ferenc; Pongrácz, Rita; Ortner, Thomas; Mert, Can; Czúcz, Bálint

2014-05-01

Phenological sensitivity of plants strongly depends on regional climate variability, moreover it is also influenced by large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. Plants in different environmental conditions (determined by geographical latitude and longitude, altitude, continentality) may show diverse responses to climate change. The first results of an international cooperation aiming at the analysis of plant phenological data along a latitudinal gradient over 12 European countries (Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Slovenia, Croatia, Hungary, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Finland) are presented. The spatio-temporal changes in the flowering onset dates of common lilac (Syringa vulgaris L.) during the period of 1970-2000 were analysed. To characterise the environmental conditions driving the phenological responses, climatic variables (atmospheric pressure, air temperature, precipitation) obtained from a gridded observational dataset (E-OBS 9.0) and time series of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index were used. Preliminary results for this particular species found a gradual advance of mean flowering onsets along latitudes from 40° N to 65° N, at the rate of -0.12 to -0.32 day/year. Significant zonal differences were found in these rates, which can be explained by the sensitivity of flowering to climatic conditions while moving from Mediterranen to boreal regions of Europe. Thus our results were coherent with most observations in the literature, that higher latitudes can exhibit more pronounced responses, particularly in case of spring phenological events.

Subepilimnetic phytoplankton communities in Rocky Mountain lakes: The influence of climate on biomass and species composition with implications for the effects of global climate change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Denoyelles, F.; Dewey, S.L.; Bergin, S.

Below the epilimnion in some lakes dense bands of phytolankton biomass of species rare or absent in the epilimnion can develop. With adequate light for photosynthesis reaching these often nutrient-rich depths and with at least a few weeks of stratification to allow time for their development, certain species become abundant from growth in place. The quantity of light and duration of stratification greatly influence these very sensitive phytoplankton conditions. Because these important environmental conditions are controlled-greatly by climate, deep-dwelling algal communities were affected by climate differences associated with elevation, in a 5-year study of 10 lakes ranging in elevation betweenmore » 2938 and 3353 m in the Medicine Bow Mountains of SE Wyoming. These results suggest that with even a slight change in climatic conditions at a given latitude and elevation, subepilimnetic phytoplankton communities in higher elevation lakes will rapidly become more like those in lower elevation lakes (warming trend), and vice versa (cooling trend).« less

Unraveling Metabolic Variation for Blueberry and Chokeberry Cultivars Harvested from Different Geo-Climatic Regions in Korea.

PubMed

Sim, Inseon; Suh, Dong Ho; Singh, Digar; Do, Seon-Gil; Moon, Kwang Hyun; Lee, Jeong Ho; Ku, Kang-Mo; Lee, Choong Hwan

2017-10-18

Temporal geo-climatic variations are presumably vital determinants of phenotypic traits and quality characteristics of berries manifested through reconfigured metabolomes. We performed an untargeted mass spectrometry (MS)-based metabolomic analysis of blueberry (Vaccinium spp.) and chokeberry (Aronia melanocarpa) sample extracts harvested from different geo-climatic regions in Korea. The multivariate statistical analysis indicated distinct metabolite compositions of berry groups based on different species and regions. The amino acids levels were relatively more abundant in chokeberry than in blueberry, while the sugar contents were comparatively higher in blueberry. However, the metabolite compositions were also dependent on geo-climatic conditions, especially latitude. Notwithstanding the cultivar types, amino acids, and sucrose were relatively more abundant in berries harvested from 35°N and 36°N geo-climatic regions, respectively, characterized by distinct duration of sunshine and rainfall patterns. The present study showed the ability of a metabolomics approach for recapitulating the significance of geo-climatic parameters for quality characterization of commercial berry types.

Nasal airflow simulations suggest convergent adaptation in Neanderthals and modern humans.

PubMed

de Azevedo, S; González, M F; Cintas, C; Ramallo, V; Quinto-Sánchez, M; Márquez, F; Hünemeier, T; Paschetta, C; Ruderman, A; Navarro, P; Pazos, B A; Silva de Cerqueira, C C; Velan, O; Ramírez-Rozzi, F; Calvo, N; Castro, H G; Paz, R R; González-José, R

2017-11-21

Both modern humans (MHs) and Neanderthals successfully settled across western Eurasian cold-climate landscapes. Among the many adaptations considered as essential to survival in such landscapes, changes in the nasal morphology and/or function aimed to humidify and warm the air before it reaches the lungs are of key importance. Unfortunately, the lack of soft-tissue evidence in the fossil record turns difficult any comparative study of respiratory performance. Here, we reconstruct the internal nasal cavity of a Neanderthal plus two representatives of climatically divergent MH populations (southwestern Europeans and northeastern Asians). The reconstruction includes mucosa distribution enabling a realistic simulation of the breathing cycle in different climatic conditions via computational fluid dynamics. Striking across-specimens differences in fluid residence times affecting humidification and warming performance at the anterior tract were found under cold/dry climate simulations. Specifically, the Asian model achieves a rapid air conditioning, followed by the Neanderthals, whereas the European model attains a proper conditioning only around the medium-posterior tract. In addition, quantitative-genetic evolutionary analyses of nasal morphology provided signals of stabilizing selection for MH populations, with the removal of Arctic populations turning covariation patterns compatible with evolution by genetic drift. Both results indicate that, departing from important craniofacial differences existing among Neanderthals and MHs, an advantageous species-specific respiratory performance in cold climates may have occurred in both species. Fluid dynamics and evolutionary biology independently provided evidence of nasal evolution, suggesting that adaptive explanations regarding complex functional phenotypes require interdisciplinary approaches aimed to quantify both performance and evolutionary signals on covariation patterns.

Effects of City Expansion on Heat Stress under Climate Change Conditions

PubMed Central

Argüeso, Daniel; Evans, Jason P.; Pitman, Andrew J.; Di Luca, Alejandro

2015-01-01

We examine the joint contribution of urban expansion and climate change on heat stress over the Sydney region. A Regional Climate Model was used to downscale present (1990–2009) and future (2040–2059) simulations from a Global Climate Model. The effects of urban surfaces on local temperature and vapor pressure were included. The role of urban expansion in modulating the climate change signal at local scales was investigated using a human heat-stress index combining temperature and vapor pressure. Urban expansion and climate change leads to increased risk of heat-stress conditions in the Sydney region, with substantially more frequent adverse conditions in urban areas. Impacts are particularly obvious in extreme values; daytime heat-stress impacts are more noticeable in the higher percentiles than in the mean values and the impact at night is more obvious in the lower percentiles than in the mean. Urban expansion enhances heat-stress increases due to climate change at night, but partly compensates its effects during the day. These differences are due to a stronger contribution from vapor pressure deficit during the day and from temperature increases during the night induced by urban surfaces. Our results highlight the inappropriateness of assessing human comfort determined using temperature changes alone and point to the likelihood that impacts of climate change assessed using models that lack urban surfaces probably underestimate future changes in terms of human comfort. PMID:25668390

Influence of local climate and climate change on aeroterrestrial phototrophic biofilms.

PubMed

Gladis-Schmacka, Franziska; Glatzel, Stephan; Karsten, Ulf; Böttcher, Heidrun; Schumann, Rhena

2014-01-01

Aeroterrestrial phototrophic biofilms colonize natural and man-made surfaces and may damage the material they settle on. The occurrence of biofilms varies between regions with different climatic conditions. The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of meteorological factors on the growth of aeroterrestrial phototrophs. Phototrophic biomass was recorded on roof tiles at six sites within Germany five times over a period of five years and compared to climatic parameters from neighboring weather stations. All correlating meteorological factors influenced water availability on the surface of the roof tiles. The results indicate that the frequency of rainy days and not the mean precipitation per season is more important for biofilm proliferation. It is also inferred that the macroclimate is more important than the microclimate. In conclusion, changed (regional) climatic conditions may determine where in central Europe global change will promote or inhibit phototrophic growth in the future.

Population dynamics of aerial and terrestrial populations Phytophthora ramorum in a California forest under different climatic conditions

Treesearch

C.A. Eyre; M. Kozanitas; M. Garbelotto

2013-01-01

Limited information is available on how soil and leaf populations of the sudden oak death pathogen, Phytophthora ramorum, may differ in their response to changing weather conditions, and their corresponding role in initiating the next disease cycle after unfavorable weather conditions. We sampled and cultured from 425 trees in six sites, three...

Do territorial butterflies show a macroecological fighting pattern in response to environmental stability?

PubMed

Peixoto, Paulo Enrique Cardoso; Medina, Anderson Matos; Mendoza-Cuenca, Luis

2014-11-01

The territorial defense of mating sites by males should be favored when female monopolization is possible. Such monopolization should occur in species in which females emerge asynchronously, since males may have time to copulate with one female before the arrival of other. However, regions with smaller reproductive windows should promote higher synchronicity of female emergence, generating a predictable macroecological pattern associated to the rewards from territorial defense. In this study we evaluated the hypothesis that territorial male butterflies should invest more in fighting in species that occur in areas with stable climatic conditions that should present longer reproductive windows. We compiled studies reporting mean butterfly fighting times, mean trait differences among winners and losers and local Köppen climatic classification (a surrogate for climatic stability). We found that males from butterfly species located in areas with stable climatic conditions fight for longer times. However, although winners were stronger than intruders only in areas with intermediate climatic conditions, there was a marked variation among winner-loser comparisons in species in areas with stable climatic conditions. We conclude that males from butterfly species that occur in areas with stable climatic regimes invest more in fighting due to the higher payoffs accrued with territorial defense, but that such investment does not change the effect of trait asymmetries in settling territorial conflicts. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled: Special Issue:Neotropical Behaviour. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ecological niche models reveal the importance of climate variability for the biogeography of protosteloid amoebae

PubMed Central

Aguilar, María; Lado, Carlos

2012-01-01

Habitat availability and environmental preferences of species are among the most important factors in determining the success of dispersal processes and therefore in shaping the distribution of protists. We explored the differences in fundamental niches and potential distributions of an ecological guild of slime moulds—protosteloid amoebae—in the Iberian Peninsula. A large set of samples collected in a north-east to south-west transect of approximately 1000 km along the peninsula was used to test the hypothesis that, together with the existence of suitable microhabitats, climate conditions may determine the probability of survival of species. Although protosteloid amoebae share similar morphologies and life history strategies, canonical correspondence analyses showed that they have varied ecological optima, and that climate conditions have an important effect in niche differentiation. Maxent environmental niche models provided consistent predictions of the probability of presence of the species based on climate data, and they were used to generate maps of potential distribution in an ‘everything is everywhere' scenario. The most important climatic factors were, in both analyses, variables that measure changes in conditions throughout the year, confirming that the alternation of fruiting bodies, cysts and amoeboid stages in the life cycles of protosteloid amoebae constitutes an advantage for surviving in a changing environment. Microhabitat affinity seems to be influenced by climatic conditions, which suggests that the micro-environment may vary at a local scale and change together with the external climate at a larger scale. PMID:22402402

Ecological niche models reveal the importance of climate variability for the biogeography of protosteloid amoebae.

PubMed

Aguilar, María; Lado, Carlos

2012-08-01

Habitat availability and environmental preferences of species are among the most important factors in determining the success of dispersal processes and therefore in shaping the distribution of protists. We explored the differences in fundamental niches and potential distributions of an ecological guild of slime moulds-protosteloid amoebae-in the Iberian Peninsula. A large set of samples collected in a north-east to south-west transect of approximately 1000 km along the peninsula was used to test the hypothesis that, together with the existence of suitable microhabitats, climate conditions may determine the probability of survival of species. Although protosteloid amoebae share similar morphologies and life history strategies, canonical correspondence analyses showed that they have varied ecological optima, and that climate conditions have an important effect in niche differentiation. Maxent environmental niche models provided consistent predictions of the probability of presence of the species based on climate data, and they were used to generate maps of potential distribution in an 'everything is everywhere' scenario. The most important climatic factors were, in both analyses, variables that measure changes in conditions throughout the year, confirming that the alternation of fruiting bodies, cysts and amoeboid stages in the life cycles of protosteloid amoebae constitutes an advantage for surviving in a changing environment. Microhabitat affinity seems to be influenced by climatic conditions, which suggests that the micro-environment may vary at a local scale and change together with the external climate at a larger scale.

Biodestruction of strongly swelling polymer hydrogels and its effect on the water retention capacity of soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smagin, A. V.; Sadovnikova, N. B.; Smagina, M. V.

2014-06-01

The biodestruction of strongly swelling polymer hydrogels (water adsorbing soil conditioners of the new generation) has been studied at the quantitative level using original mathematical models. In laboratory experiments, a relationship between the hydrogel degradation rate and the temperature has been obtained, and the effect of the biodestruction on the water retention curve of soil compositions with hydrogels (used as an index of their water retention capacity) has been assessed. From the automatic monitoring data of the temperature regime of soils, the potential biodestruction of hydrogels has been predicted for different climatic conditions. The loss of hydrogels during three months of the vegetation period because of destruction can exceed 30% of their initial content in irrigated agriculture under arid climatic conditions and more than 10% under humid climatic conditions. Thus, the biodestruction of hydrogels is one of the most important factors decreasing their efficiency under actual soil conditions.

Climate legacy and lag effects on dryland plant communities in the southwestern U.S.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bunting, Erin; Munson, Seth M.; Villarreal, Miguel

2017-01-01

Climate change effects on vegetation will likely be strong in the southwestern U.S., which is projected to experience large increases in temperature and changes in precipitation. Plant communities in the southwestern U.S. may be particularly vulnerable to climate change as the productivity of many plant species is strongly water-limited. This study examines the relationship between climate and vegetation condition using a time-series of Landsat imagery across grassland, shrubland, and woodland communities on the Colorado Plateau, USA. We improve on poorly understood inter-annual climate-vegetation relationships by exploring how the responses of different plant communities depend on climate legacies (>12 months) and lag behind shorter-term (3–12 month) changes in water availability. Our results show a prolonged drying trend on the Colorado Plateau since the early 1990s that was punctuated in several years by intense droughts. In areas that experienced sustained dry conditions or a drying trend, vegetation greenness (a proxy for production) increased linearly when conditions were interrupted by wetting events. In contrast, in areas that experienced sustained wet conditions or a wetting trend, vegetation greenness was weakly or not related to wetting events, indicating that production may saturate if vegetation experiences sufficient water availability. Shrubland and woodland communities had stronger relationships with climate at long lags (6–12 months) and many maintained greenness under sustained water deficit, whereas grassland communities had stronger relationships at short lags (3–6 months) and lost greenness even in periods of short-term drought. The results of our study show the importance of identifying climate legacies and lags when assessing indicators of ecological drought, which can be used to improve forecasts of which plant communities will be vulnerable under future climate change.

Stress testing hydrologic models using bottom-up climate change assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephens, C.; Johnson, F.; Marshall, L. A.

2017-12-01

Bottom-up climate change assessment is a promising approach for understanding the vulnerability of a system to potential future changes. The technique has been utilised successfully in risk-based assessments of future flood severity and infrastructure vulnerability. We find that it is also an ideal tool for assessing hydrologic model performance in a changing climate. In this study, we applied bottom-up climate change to compare the performance of two different hydrologic models (an event-based and a continuous model) under increasingly severe climate change scenarios. This allowed us to diagnose likely sources of future prediction error in the two models. The climate change scenarios were based on projections for southern Australia, which indicate drier average conditions with increased extreme rainfall intensities. We found that the key weakness in using the event-based model to simulate drier future scenarios was the model's inability to dynamically account for changing antecedent conditions. This led to increased variability in model performance relative to the continuous model, which automatically accounts for the wetness of a catchment through dynamic simulation of water storages. When considering more intense future rainfall events, representation of antecedent conditions became less important than assumptions around (non)linearity in catchment response. The linear continuous model we applied may underestimate flood risk in a future climate with greater extreme rainfall intensity. In contrast with the recommendations of previous studies, this indicates that continuous simulation is not necessarily the key to robust flood modelling under climate change. By applying bottom-up climate change assessment, we were able to understand systematic changes in relative model performance under changing conditions and deduce likely sources of prediction error in the two models.

A transient stochastic weather generator incorporating climate model uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glenis, Vassilis; Pinamonti, Valentina; Hall, Jim W.; Kilsby, Chris G.

2015-11-01

Stochastic weather generators (WGs), which provide long synthetic time series of weather variables such as rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (PET), have found widespread use in water resources modelling. When conditioned upon the changes in climatic statistics (change factors, CFs) predicted by climate models, WGs provide a useful tool for climate impacts assessment and adaption planning. The latest climate modelling exercises have involved large numbers of global and regional climate models integrations, designed to explore the implications of uncertainties in the climate model formulation and parameter settings: so called 'perturbed physics ensembles' (PPEs). In this paper we show how these climate model uncertainties can be propagated through to impact studies by testing multiple vectors of CFs, each vector derived from a different sample from a PPE. We combine this with a new methodology to parameterise the projected time-evolution of CFs. We demonstrate how, when conditioned upon these time-dependent CFs, an existing, well validated and widely used WG can be used to generate non-stationary simulations of future climate that are consistent with probabilistic outputs from the Met Office Hadley Centre's Perturbed Physics Ensemble. The WG enables extensive sampling of natural variability and climate model uncertainty, providing the basis for development of robust water resources management strategies in the context of a non-stationary climate.

Constructing regional climate networks in the Amazonia during recent drought events.

PubMed

Guo, Heng; Ramos, Antônio M T; Macau, Elbert E N; Zou, Yong; Guan, Shuguang

2017-01-01

Climate networks are powerful approaches to disclose tele-connections in climate systems and to predict severe climate events. Here we construct regional climate networks from precipitation data in the Amazonian region and focus on network properties under the recent drought events in 2005 and 2010. Both the networks of the entire Amazon region and the extreme networks resulted from locations severely affected by drought events suggest that network characteristics show slight difference between the two drought events. Based on network degrees of extreme drought events and that without drought conditions, we identify regions of interest that are correlated to longer expected drought period length. Moreover, we show that the spatial correlation length to the regions of interest decayed much faster in 2010 than in 2005, which is because of the dual roles played by both the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. The results suggest that hub nodes in the regional climate network of Amazonia have fewer long-range connections when more severe drought conditions appeared in 2010 than that in 2005.

Testing for effects of climate change on competitive relationships and coexistence between two bird species.

PubMed

Stenseth, Nils Chr; Durant, Joël M; Fowler, Mike S; Matthysen, Erik; Adriaensen, Frank; Jonzén, Niclas; Chan, Kung-Sik; Liu, Hai; De Laet, Jenny; Sheldon, Ben C; Visser, Marcel E; Dhondt, André A

2015-05-22

Climate change is expected to have profound ecological effects, yet shifts in competitive abilities among species are rarely studied in this context. Blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) and great tits (Parus major) compete for food and roosting sites, yet coexist across much of their range. Climate change might thus change the competitive relationships and coexistence between these two species. Analysing four of the highest-quality, long-term datasets available on these species across Europe, we extend the textbook example of coexistence between competing species to include the dynamic effects of long-term climate variation. Using threshold time-series statistical modelling, we demonstrate that long-term climate variation affects species demography through different influences on density-dependent and density-independent processes. The competitive interaction between blue tits and great tits has shifted in one of the studied sites, creating conditions that alter the relative equilibrium densities between the two species, potentially disrupting long-term coexistence. Our analyses show that long-term climate change can, but does not always, generate local differences in the equilibrium conditions of spatially structured species assemblages. We demonstrate how long-term data can be used to better understand whether (and how), for instance, climate change might change the relationships between coexisting species. However, the studied populations are rather robust against competitive exclusion. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Changing Conditions in the Arctic: An Analysis of 45 years of Tropospheric Ozone Measurements at Barrow Observatory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McClure-Begley, A.; Petropavlovskikh, I. V.; Crepinsek, S.; Jefferson, A.; Emmons, L. K.; Oltmans, S. J.

2017-12-01

In order to understand the impact of climate on local bio-systems, understanding the changes to the atmospheric composition and processes in the Arctic boundary layer and free troposphere is imperative. In the Arctic, many conditions influence tropospheric ozone variability such as: seasonal halogen caused depletion events, long range transport of pollutants from mid-northern latitudes, compounds released from wildfires, and different meteorological conditions. The Barrow station in Utqiagvik, Alaska has collected continuous measurements of ground-level ozone since 1973. This unique long-term time series allows for analysis of the influence of a rapidly changing climate on ozone conditions in this region. Specifically, this study analyzes the frequency of enhanced ozone episodes over time and provides in depth analysis of periods of positive deviations from the expected conditions. To discern the contribution of different pollutant sources to observed ozone variability, co-located measurements of aerosols, carbon monoxide, and meteorological conditions are used. In addition, the NCAR Mozart-4/MOPITT Chemical Forecast model and NOAA Hysplit back-trajectory analysis provide information on transport patterns to the Arctic and confirmation of the emission sources that influenced the observed conditions. These anthropogenic influences on ozone variability in and below the boundary layer are essential for developing an understanding of the interaction of climate change and the bio-systems in the Arctic.

Structure and Function of Intra-Annual Density Fluctuations: Mind the Gaps.

PubMed

Battipaglia, Giovanna; Campelo, Filipe; Vieira, Joana; Grabner, Michael; De Micco, Veronica; Nabais, Cristina; Cherubini, Paolo; Carrer, Marco; Bräuning, Achim; Čufar, Katarina; Di Filippo, Alfredo; García-González, Ignacio; Koprowski, Marcin; Klisz, Marcin; Kirdyanov, Alexander V; Zafirov, Nikolay; de Luis, Martin

2016-01-01

Tree rings are natural archives of climate and environmental information with a yearly resolution. Indeed, wood anatomical, chemical, and other properties of tree rings are a synthesis of several intrinsic and external factors, and their interaction during tree growth. In particular, Intra-Annual Density Fluctuations (IADFs) can be considered as tree-ring anomalies that can be used to better understand tree growth and to reconstruct past climate conditions with intra-annual resolution. However, the ecophysiological processes behind IADF formation, as well as their functional impact, remain unclear. Are IADFs resulting from a prompt adjustment to fluctuations in environmental conditions to avoid stressful conditions and/or to take advantage from favorable conditions? In this paper we discuss: (1) the influence of climatic factors on the formation of IADFs; (2) the occurrence of IADFs in different species and environments; (3) the potential of new approaches to study IADFs and identify their triggering factors. Our final aim is to underscore the advantages offered by network analyses of data and the importance of high-resolution measurements to gain insight into IADFs formation processes and their relations with climatic conditions, including extreme weather events.

Structure and Function of Intra–Annual Density Fluctuations: Mind the Gaps

PubMed Central

Battipaglia, Giovanna; Campelo, Filipe; Vieira, Joana; Grabner, Michael; De Micco, Veronica; Nabais, Cristina; Cherubini, Paolo; Carrer, Marco; Bräuning, Achim; Čufar, Katarina; Di Filippo, Alfredo; García-González, Ignacio; Koprowski, Marcin; Klisz, Marcin; Kirdyanov, Alexander V.; Zafirov, Nikolay; de Luis, Martin

2016-01-01

Tree rings are natural archives of climate and environmental information with a yearly resolution. Indeed, wood anatomical, chemical, and other properties of tree rings are a synthesis of several intrinsic and external factors, and their interaction during tree growth. In particular, Intra-Annual Density Fluctuations (IADFs) can be considered as tree-ring anomalies that can be used to better understand tree growth and to reconstruct past climate conditions with intra-annual resolution. However, the ecophysiological processes behind IADF formation, as well as their functional impact, remain unclear. Are IADFs resulting from a prompt adjustment to fluctuations in environmental conditions to avoid stressful conditions and/or to take advantage from favorable conditions? In this paper we discuss: (1) the influence of climatic factors on the formation of IADFs; (2) the occurrence of IADFs in different species and environments; (3) the potential of new approaches to study IADFs and identify their triggering factors. Our final aim is to underscore the advantages offered by network analyses of data and the importance of high-resolution measurements to gain insight into IADFs formation processes and their relations with climatic conditions, including extreme weather events. PMID:27200063

A Pilot Study Assesing Climate Change Impacts on Cereals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Topcu, Sevilay; Sen, Burak; Turkes, Murat

2010-05-01

The spatial and temporal impacts of climate change on the growth and yield of major cereals (first and second-crop corn) as well as wheat grown in Cukurova Region in the southern Turkey have been assessed, by combining the outputs from a regional climate model with a crop growth simulation model. With its 1.1 million ha of agricultural land, the Cukurova Region is one of the major agricultural production regions in Turkey. Wheat dominates in rain-fed areas while corn crops are grown in more than 50 % of the irrigated land in the region. Thus, the Region is providing half of the country's total cereal production. Since the region has a typical Mediterranean climate with almost no rain and high temperatures during the summer months, agricultural production is vulnerable to changes in climate in terms of decreasing rainfall and increasing temperatures and consequently shortage of water resources. To predict the future climate for the period 2070-2100, the regional climate model RegCM3 conditions was performed using IPCC's SRESS-A2 scenario, and climatic parameter such as daily mean, maximum and minimum temperatures, radiation as well as total annual precipitation were selected for the simulation study. Data for the period 1961 to 1990 were used as historical reference. The WOFOST model was used to simulate cereal growths and yields for two different water availability senarios: 1) potential production and 2) water-limited production conditions. Potential growth represents the conditions where no limiting factor such as water and nutrients is present, however due to the water-limited production situation, water for irrigation is limited as a consequence of water shortage. The detailed results of previous field experiments carried out with three cereal crops in different locations with different regional soil and climate conditions were used for the verification of the WOFOST model. According to the verification results, the model simulated the yield with less than 5% deviation for all three cereal crops. According to projections of the regional climate model RegCM3, the annual average temperature will likely increase by 3.4 to 4.8 °C, while approximately a 25% decrease in rainfall amounts is expected in the Cukurova Region during the period 2071-2100. Similar results for temperatures were estimated for entire country, however predicted changes in rainfall varies in a wide range for the country. The study showed that with climate change, wheat yield could decrease drastically in rainfed areas, however supplemental irrigation could help to sustain the yield on the current level. Yields of first and second-crop corn are expected to decrease by 58% and 43.4%, respectively, compared to the reference value under water shortages.

Hydrological changes in the tropics: an Holocene perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braconnot, Pascale

2015-04-01

Past climates offer a large set of natural experiences that can be used to better understand the relative role of different climate feedbacks arising from changes in the Earth's global energetics, Earth's hydrological cycle or from the coupling between climate and biogeochemical cycles. In addition, the numerous climate reconstructions from different and independent ice, marine and terrestrial climate archives allow to test how climate models reproduce past changes and to assess their credibility when used for future climate projections. The presentation will review some of the mechanisms affecting the long term trend in the location of the intertropical convergence zone and the Afro-Asian monsoon. Using simulations of the PMIP project, as well as sensitivity experiments with the IPSL model, I'll discuss the role of monsoon changes in the global Earth's energetics and the different feedbacks from ocean and land-surface. The presentation will contrast the conditions in the Early, the mid and late Holocene and show how robust features of monsoon changes can be used to better assess future changes in regions where model results are uncertain, such as West Africa.

Modeling soil respiration and variations of source components using a multi-factor global climate change experiment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Xiongwen; Post, Wilfred M; Norby, Richard J

2011-01-01

Soil respiration is an important component of the global carbon cycle and is highly responsive to changes in soil temperature and moisture. Accurate prediction of soil respiration and its changes under future climatic conditions requires a clear understanding of the processes involved. In spite of this, most current empirical soil respiration models incorporate just few of the underlying mechanisms that may influence its response. In this study, a new partial process-based component model built on source components of soil respiration was tested using data collected from a multi-factor climate change experiment that manipulates CO2 concentrations, temperature and precipitation. These resultsmore » were then compared to results generated using several other established models. The component model we tested performed well across different treatments of global climate change. In contrast, some other models, which worked well predicting ambient environmental conditions, were unable to predict the changes under different climate change treatments. Based on the component model, the relative proportions of heterotrophic respiration (Rh) in the total soil respiration at different treatments varied from 0.33 to 0.85. There is a significant increase in the proportion of Rh under the elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration in comparison ambient conditions. The dry treatment resulted in higher proportion of Rh at elevated CO2 and ambient T than under elevated CO2 and elevated T. Also, the ratios between root growth and root maintenance respiration varied across different treatments. Neither increased temperature nor elevated atmospheric CO2 changed Q10 values significantly, while the average Q10 value at wet sites was significantly higher than it at dry sites. There was a higher possibility of increased soil respiration under drying relative to wetting conditions across all treatments based on monthly data, indicating that soil respiration may also be related to soil moisture at previous time periods. Our results reveal that the extent, time delay and contribution of different source components need to be included into mechanistic/processes-based soil respiration models at corresponding scale.« less

Effects of climate, vegetation, and soils on consumptive water use and ground-water recharge to the Central Midwest Regional aquifer system, Mid-continent United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dugan, J.T.; Peckenpaugh, J.M.

1985-01-01

The Central Midwest aquifer system, in parts of Arkansas, Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, New Mexico, South Dakota, and Texas, is a region of great hydrologic diversity. This study examines the relationships between climate, vegetation, and soil that affect consumptive water use and recharge to the groundwater system. Computations of potential recharge and consumptive water use were restricted to those areas where the aquifers under consideration were the immediate underlying system. The principal method of analysis utilized a soil moisture computer model. This model requires four types of input: (1) hydrologic properties of the soils, (2) vegetation types, (3) monthly precipitation, and (4) computed monthly potential evapotranspiration (PET) values. The climatic factors that affect consumptive water use and recharge were extensively mapped for the study area. Nearly all the pertinent climatic elements confirmed the extreme diversity of the region. PET and those factors affecting it--solar radiation, temperature, and humidity--showed large regional differences; mean annual PET ranged from 36 to 70 inches in the study area. The seasonal climatic patterns indicate significant regional differences in those factors affecting seasonal consumptive water use and recharge. In the southern and western parts of the study area, consumptive water use occurred nearly the entire year; whereas, in northern parts it occurred primarily during the warm season (April through September). Results of the soil-moisture program, which added the effects of vegetation and the hydrologic characteristics of the soil to computed PET values, confirmed the significant regional differences in consumptive water use or actual evapotranspiration (AET) and potential groundwater recharge. Under two different vegetative conditions--the 1978 conditions and pre-agricultural conditions consisting of only grassland and woodland--overall differences in recharge were minimal. Mean annual recharge under both conditions averaged slightly more than 4.5 inches for the entire study area, but ranged from less than 0.10 inches in eastern Colorado to slightly more than 15 inches in Arkansas. (Lantz-PTT)

The uncertainty cascade in flood risk assessment under changing climatic conditions - the Biala Tarnowska case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Romanowicz, Renata

2016-04-01

Uncertainty in the results of the hydraulic model is not only associated with the limitations of that model and the shortcomings of data. An important factor that has a major impact on the uncertainty of the flood risk assessment in a changing climate conditions is associated with the uncertainty of future climate scenarios (IPCC WG I, 2013). Future climate projections provided by global climate models are used to generate future runoff required as an input to hydraulic models applied in the derivation of flood risk maps. Biala Tarnowska catchment, situated in southern Poland is used as a case study. Future discharges at the input to a hydraulic model are obtained using the HBV model and climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. The study describes a cascade of uncertainty related to different stages of the process of derivation of flood risk maps under changing climate conditions. In this context it takes into account the uncertainty of future climate projections, an uncertainty of flow routing model, the propagation of that uncertainty through the hydraulic model, and finally, the uncertainty related to the derivation of flood risk maps. One of the aims of this study is an assessment of a relative impact of different sources of uncertainty on the uncertainty of flood risk maps. Due to the complexity of the process, an assessment of total uncertainty of maps of inundation probability might be very computer time consuming. As a way forward we present an application of a hydraulic model simulator based on a nonlinear transfer function model for the chosen locations along the river reach. The transfer function model parameters are estimated based on the simulations of the hydraulic model at each of the model cross-section. The study shows that the application of the simulator substantially reduces the computer requirements related to the derivation of flood risk maps under future climatic conditions. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the project CHIHE (Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Extremes), carried out in the Institute of Geophysics Polish Academy of Sciences, funded by Norway Grants (contract No. Pol-Nor/196243/80/2013). The hydro-meteorological observations were provided by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), Poland.

The impact of global warming on the range distribution of different climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata.

PubMed

Güizado-Rodríguez, Martha Anahí; Ballesteros-Barrera, Claudia; Casas-Andreu, Gustavo; Barradas-Miranda, Victor Luis; Téllez-Valdés, Oswaldo; Salgado-Ugarte, Isaías Hazarmabeth

2012-12-01

The ectothermic nature of reptiles makes them especially sensitive to global warming. Although climate change and its implications are a frequent topic of detailed studies, most of these studies are carried out without making a distinction between populations. Here we present the first study of an Aspidoscelis species that evaluates the effects of global warming on its distribution using ecological niche modeling. The aims of our study were (1) to understand whether predicted warmer climatic conditions affect the geographic potential distribution of different climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata and (2) to identify potential altitudinal changes of these groups under global warming. We used the maximum entropy species distribution model (MaxEnt) to project the potential distributions expected for the years 2020, 2050, and 2080 under a single simulated climatic scenario. Our analysis suggests that some climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata will exhibit reductions and in others expansions in their distribution, with potential upward shifts toward higher elevation in response to climate warming. Different climatic groups were revealed in our analysis that subsequently showed heterogeneous responses to climatic change illustrating the complex nature of species geographic responses to environmental change and the importance of modeling climatic or geographic groups and/or populations instead of the entire species' range treated as a homogeneous entity.

Genotypic variation in traits linked to climate and aboveground productivity in a widespread C₄ grass: evidence for a functional trait syndrome.

PubMed

Aspinwall, Michael J; Lowry, David B; Taylor, Samuel H; Juenger, Thomas E; Hawkes, Christine V; Johnson, Mari-Vaughn V; Kiniry, James R; Fay, Philip A

2013-09-01

Examining intraspecific variation in growth and function in relation to climate may provide insight into physiological evolution and adaptation, and is important for predicting species responses to climate change. Under common garden conditions, we grew nine genotypes of the C₄ species Panicum virgatum originating from different temperature and precipitation environments. We hypothesized that genotype productivity, morphology and physiological traits would be correlated with climate of origin, and a suite of adaptive traits would show high broad-sense heritability (H(2)). Genotype productivity and flowering time increased and decreased, respectively, with home-climate temperature, and home-climate temperature was correlated with genotypic differences in a syndrome of morphological and physiological traits. Genotype leaf and tiller size, leaf lamina thickness, leaf mass per area (LMA) and C : N ratios increased with home-climate temperature, whereas leaf nitrogen per unit mass (Nm ) and chlorophyll (Chl) decreased with home-climate temperature. Trait variation was largely explained by genotypic differences (H(2) = 0.33-0.85). Our results provide new insight into the role of climate in driving functional trait coordination, local adaptation and genetic divergence within species. These results emphasize the importance of considering intraspecific variation in future climate change scenarios. © 2013 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

The Women's Role in the Adaptation to Climate Variability and Climate Change: Its Contribution to the Risk Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quintero Angel, M.; Carvajal Escobar, Y.; Garcia Vargas, M.

2007-05-01

Recently, there is evidence of an increase in the amount of severity in extreme events associated with the climate variability or climate change; which demonstrates that climate in this planet is changing. There is an observation of increasing damages, and of social economical cost associated with these phenomena's, mostly do to more people are living in hazard vulnerable conditions. The victims of natural disasters have increase from 147 to 211 million between 1991 and 2000. In same way more than 665.000 people have died in 2557 natural disasters, which 90% are associated with water and climate. (UNESCO & WWAP, 2003). The actual tendency and the introduction of new factors of risk, suggest lost increase in the future, obligating actions to manage and reduce risk of disaster. Bind work, health, poverty, education, water, climate, and disasters is not an error, is an obligation. Vulnerability of society to natural hazards and to poverty are bond, to reduce the risk of disasters is frequently united with the reduction of poverty and in the other way too (Sen, 2000). In this context, extreme events impact societies in all the world, affecting differently men and women, do to the different roles they play in the society, the different access in the control of resources, the few participation that women have in taking decisions with preparedness, mitigation, rehabilitation of disasters, impacting more women in developing countries. Although, women understand better the causes and local consequences in changes of climate conditions. They have a pile of knowledge and abilities for guiding adaptation, playing a very important role in vulnerable communities. This work shows how these topics connect with the millennium development goals; particularly how it affects its accomplishment. It also describes the impact of climate variability and climate change in developing countries. Analyzing adaptation responses that are emerging; especially from women initiation.

Future scenarios for viticultural bioclimatic indices in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, João.; Malheiro, Aureliano C.; Fraga, Helder; Pinto, Joaquim G.

2010-05-01

Winemaking has a predominant economic, social and environmental relevance in several European countries. Studies addressing the influence of climate variability and change in viticulture are particularly pertinent, as climate is one of the main conditioning factors of this activity. In this context, bioclimatic indices are a useful zoning tool, allowing the description of the suitability of a particular region for wine production. In this study, we compute climatic indices (concerning to thermal and hydrological conditions) for Europe, characterize regions with different viticultural aptitude, and assess possible variations in these regions under a future climate conditions using a state-of-the-art regional climate model. The indices are calculated from climatic variables (mostly daily maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation) obtained from the NCEP reanalysis dataset. Then, the same indices are calculated for present and future climate conditions using data from the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (Consortium for Small Scale Modelling - Climate Limited-area Modelling). Maps of theses indices for recent-past periods (1961-2008) and for the SRES A1B scenario are considered in order to identify significant changes in their patterns. Results show that climate change is projected to have a significant negative impact in wine quality by increased dryness and cumulative thermal effects during growing seasons in Southern European regions (e.g. Portugal, Spain and Italy). These changes represent an important constraint to grapevine growth and development, making crucial adaptation/mitigation strategies to be adopted. On the other hand, regions of western and central Europe (e.g. southern Britain, northern France and Germany) will benefit from this scenario both in wine quality, and in new potential areas for viticulture. This approach provides a macro-characterization of European areas where grapevines may preferentially grow, as well as their projected changes under human-induced forcing. As such, it can be a useful tool for viticultural zoning in a changing climate.

Flow regime alterations under changing climate in two river basins: Implications for freshwater ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gibson, C.A.; Meyer, J.L.; Poff, N.L.; Hay, L.E.; Georgakakos, A.

2005-01-01

We examined impacts of future climate scenarios on flow regimes and how predicted changes might affect river ecosystems. We examined two case studies: Cle Elum River, Washington, and Chattahoochee-Apalachicola River Basin, Georgia and Florida. These rivers had available downscaled global circulation model (GCM) data and allowed us to analyse the effects of future climate scenarios on rivers with (1) different hydrographs, (2) high future water demands, and (3) a river-floodplain system. We compared observed flow regimes to those predicted under future climate scenarios to describe the extent and type of changes predicted to occur. Daily stream flow under future climate scenarios was created by either statistically downscaling GCMs (Cle Elum) or creating a regression model between climatological parameters predicted from GCMs and stream flow (Chattahoochee-Apalachicola). Flow regimes were examined for changes from current conditions with respect to ecologically relevant features including the magnitude and timing of minimum and maximum flows. The Cle Elum's hydrograph under future climate scenarios showed a dramatic shift in the timing of peak flows and lower low flow of a longer duration. These changes could mean higher summer water temperatures, lower summer dissolved oxygen, and reduced survival of larval fishes. The Chattahoochee-Apalachicola basin is heavily impacted by dams and water withdrawals for human consumption; therefore, we made comparisons between pre-large dam conditions, current conditions, current conditions with future demand, and future climate scenarios with future demand to separate climate change effects and other anthropogenic impacts. Dam construction, future climate, and future demand decreased the flow variability of the river. In addition, minimum flows were lower under future climate scenarios. These changes could decrease the connectivity of the channel and the floodplain, decrease habitat availability, and potentially lower the ability of the river to assimilate wastewater treatment plant effluent. Our study illustrates the types of changes that river ecosystems might experience under future climates. Copyright ?? 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Climate warming alters effects of management on population viability of threatened species: results from a 30-year experimental study on a rare orchid.

PubMed

Sletvold, Nina; Dahlgren, Johan P; Oien, Dag-Inge; Moen, Asbjørn; Ehrlén, Johan

2013-09-01

Climate change is expected to influence the viability of populations both directly and indirectly, via species interactions. The effects of large-scale climate change are also likely to interact with local habitat conditions. Management actions designed to preserve threatened species therefore need to adapt both to the prevailing climate and local conditions. Yet, few studies have separated the direct and indirect effects of climatic variables on the viability of local populations and discussed the implications for optimal management. We used 30 years of demographic data to estimate the simultaneous effects of management practice and among-year variation in four climatic variables on individual survival, growth and fecundity in one coastal and one inland population of the perennial orchid Dactylorhiza lapponica in Norway. Current management, mowing, is expected to reduce competitive interactions. Statistical models of how climate and management practice influenced vital rates were incorporated into matrix population models to quantify effects on population growth rate. Effects of climate differed between mown and control plots in both populations. In particular, population growth rate increased more strongly with summer temperature in mown plots than in control plots. Population growth rate declined with spring temperature in the inland population, and with precipitation in the coastal population, and the decline was stronger in control plots in both populations. These results illustrate that both direct and indirect effects of climate change are important for population viability and that net effects depend both on local abiotic conditions and on biotic conditions in terms of management practice and intensity of competition. The results also show that effects of management practices influencing competitive interactions can strongly depend on climatic factors. We conclude that interactions between climate and management should be considered to reliably predict future population viability and optimize conservation actions. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Vegetation dynamics of the Guatemalan lowlands from MIS7 to MIS5: Evidence from Lake Petén-Itzá

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cruz-Silva, E.; Correa-Metrio, A.; Bush, M. B.

2013-05-01

Reconstructing vegetation patterns of past warm climatic stages is critical for understanding modern processes that affect diversity and climate. Tropical lowlands are of special interest because of the high biodiversity they foster and the risks they face under a scenario of rapid climate change. With a basal age of more that 191,000 years, core PI-1 from Lake Petén-Itzá, Guatemalan lowlands, offer an exceptional opportunity to investigate the dynamics of the vegetation of the area during climatic stages that might be analogous to today. Pollen analysis of the lower part of this sedimentary record shows a sequence of five different climatic stages of alternating warm and cold conditions. According to our interpretation, tropical forests extended in the area during MIS7 and MIS5, with the former characterized by drier conditions than the latter. Apparently forest dynamics closely followed global climatic changes that were recorded in the Antarctic and the Marine Stack records. Our results confirm that vegetation of the Peninsula, although highly resilient, has been very sensitive to global climatic changes.

Plant Species Rather Than Climate Greatly Alters the Temporal Pattern of Litter Chemical Composition During Long-Term Decomposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yongfu; Chen, Na; Harmon, Mark E.; Li, Yuan; Cao, Xiaoyan; Chappell, Mark A.; Mao, Jingdong

2015-10-01

A feedback between decomposition and litter chemical composition occurs with decomposition altering composition that in turn influences the decomposition rate. Elucidating the temporal pattern of chemical composition is vital to understand this feedback, but the effects of plant species and climate on chemical changes remain poorly understood, especially over multiple years. In a 10-year decomposition experiment with litter of four species (Acer saccharum, Drypetes glauca, Pinus resinosa, and Thuja plicata) from four sites that range from the arctic to tropics, we determined the abundance of 11 litter chemical constituents that were grouped into waxes, carbohydrates, lignin/tannins, and proteins/peptides using advanced 13C solid-state NMR techniques. Decomposition generally led to an enrichment of waxes and a depletion of carbohydrates, whereas the changes of other chemical constituents were inconsistent. Inconsistent convergence in chemical compositions during decomposition was observed among different litter species across a range of site conditions, whereas one litter species converged under different climate conditions. Our data clearly demonstrate that plant species rather than climate greatly alters the temporal pattern of litter chemical composition, suggesting the decomposition-chemistry feedback varies among different plant species.

Plant Species Rather Than Climate Greatly Alters the Temporal Pattern of Litter Chemical Composition During Long-Term Decomposition

PubMed Central

Li, Yongfu; Chen, Na; Harmon, Mark E.; Li, Yuan; Cao, Xiaoyan; Chappell, Mark A.; Mao, Jingdong

2015-01-01

A feedback between decomposition and litter chemical composition occurs with decomposition altering composition that in turn influences the decomposition rate. Elucidating the temporal pattern of chemical composition is vital to understand this feedback, but the effects of plant species and climate on chemical changes remain poorly understood, especially over multiple years. In a 10-year decomposition experiment with litter of four species (Acer saccharum, Drypetes glauca, Pinus resinosa, and Thuja plicata) from four sites that range from the arctic to tropics, we determined the abundance of 11 litter chemical constituents that were grouped into waxes, carbohydrates, lignin/tannins, and proteins/peptides using advanced 13C solid-state NMR techniques. Decomposition generally led to an enrichment of waxes and a depletion of carbohydrates, whereas the changes of other chemical constituents were inconsistent. Inconsistent convergence in chemical compositions during decomposition was observed among different litter species across a range of site conditions, whereas one litter species converged under different climate conditions. Our data clearly demonstrate that plant species rather than climate greatly alters the temporal pattern of litter chemical composition, suggesting the decomposition-chemistry feedback varies among different plant species. PMID:26515033

Applying downscaled global climate model data to a hydrodynamic surface-water and groundwater model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Swain, Eric; Stefanova, Lydia; Smith, Thomas

2014-01-01

Precipitation data from Global Climate Models have been downscaled to smaller regions. Adapting this downscaled precipitation data to a coupled hydrodynamic surface-water/groundwater model of southern Florida allows an examination of future conditions and their effect on groundwater levels, inundation patterns, surface-water stage and flows, and salinity. The downscaled rainfall data include the 1996-2001 time series from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting ERA-40 simulation and both the 1996-1999 and 2038-2057 time series from two global climate models: the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory (GFDL). Synthesized surface-water inflow datasets were developed for the 2038-2057 simulations. The resulting hydrologic simulations, with and without a 30-cm sea-level rise, were compared with each other and field data to analyze a range of projected conditions. Simulations predicted generally higher future stage and groundwater levels and surface-water flows, with sea-level rise inducing higher coastal salinities. A coincident rise in sea level, precipitation and surface-water flows resulted in a narrower inland saline/fresh transition zone. The inland areas were affected more by the rainfall difference than the sea-level rise, and the rainfall differences make little difference in coastal inundation, but a larger difference in coastal salinities.

Detecting mismatches of bird migration stopover and tree phenology in response to changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kellermann, Jherime L.; van Riper, Charles

2015-01-01

Migratory birds exploit seasonal variation in resources across latitudes, timing migration to coincide with the phenology of food at stopover sites. Differential responses to climate in phenology across trophic levels can result in phenological mismatch; however, detecting mismatch is sensitive to methodology. We examined patterns of migrant abundance and tree flowering, phenological mismatch, and the influence of climate during spring migration from 2009 to 2011 across five habitat types of the Madrean Sky Islands in southeastern Arizona, USA. We used two metrics to assess phenological mismatch: synchrony and overlap. We also examined whether phenological overlap declined with increasing difference in mean event date of phenophases. Migrant abundance and tree flowering generally increased with minimum spring temperature but depended on annual climate by habitat interactions. Migrant abundance was lowest and flowering was highest under cold, snowy conditions in high elevation montane conifer habitat while bird abundance was greatest and flowering was lowest in low elevation riparian habitat under the driest conditions. Phenological synchrony and overlap were unique and complementary metrics and should both be used when assessing mismatch. Overlap declined due to asynchronous phenologies but also due to reduced migrant abundance or flowering when synchrony was actually maintained. Overlap declined with increasing difference in event date and this trend was strongest in riparian areas. Montane habitat specialists may be at greatest risk of mismatch while riparian habitat could provide refugia during dry years for phenotypically plastic species. Interannual climate patterns that we observed match climate change projections for the arid southwest, altering stopover habitat condition.

Evaluating the climate capabilities of the coastal areas of southeastern Iran for tourism: a case study on port of Chabahar.

PubMed

Sabzevari, Azadeh Arbabi; Miri, Morteza; Raziei, Tayeb; Oroji, Hassan; Rahimi, Mojtaba

2018-03-14

The present study aims to evaluate the influence of climate conditions on tourism in the port of Chabahar, southeastern Iran, using the climate comfort indices (CIT, PMV, and TCI) and the field data relative to the tourist satisfaction. According to the computed TCI, the autumn-winter season (October-April) is climatically favorable for tourism in Chabahar, but it is ideal during January to March. Based on the computed PMV index, the studied region is in the range of climate comfort in most parts of the year. However, when the PMV thermal comfort limits (- 0.5 < PMV < 0.5) and the PPD limits (0 < PPD < 10) are considered, only the March and November are included in the thermal comfort range. The CIT index also indicates that all months of the year are acceptable for tourism that does not coincide with the reality of the region. However, by blending the PMV and the tourist's degree of satisfaction, a slight modification was made to the CIT index to better represent the reality of the region regarding the climate comfort. The modified CIT gave a different result, reflecting the importance of tourists' perceptions in defining the climate comfort rather than merely relying on the climate variables. The modified CIT also suggests November-March as a period with favorable to ideal climate condition for tourism in Chabahar which is a more realistic assessment of climate condition of the region as perceived by the tourists interviewed.

Backscatter modelling and inversion from Cassini/SAR data: Implications for Titan's sand seas properties and climatic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucas, A.; Rodriguez, S.; Lemonnier, F.; Paillou, P.; Le Gall, A. A.; Narteau, C.

2015-12-01

Sand seas on Titan may reflect the present and past climatic conditions. Understanding the morphodynamics and physicochemical properties of Titan's dunes is therefore essential for a better comprehension of the climatic and geological history of the largest Saturn's moon. We derived quantitatively surface properties (texture, composition) from the modelling of microwave backscattered signal and Monte Carlo inversion of despeckled Cassini/SAR data over the equatorial sand seas. We show that dunes and inter-dunes have significantly different physical properties. Absorption is more efficient in the dunes compared to the inter-dunes. The inter-dunes are smoother with an higher dielectric constant than the dunes. Considering the composition, the inter-dunes are in between the dunes and the bright inselbergs, suggesting the presence of a shallow layer of sediment in between the dunes. Additionally potential secondary bedforms may have been detected. Implications for dune morphodynamics, sediment inventory and climatic conditions occurring on Titan will be discussed.

Cross - Scale Intercomparison of Climate Change Impacts Simulated by Regional and Global Hydrological Models in Eleven Large River Basins

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hattermann, F. F.; Krysanova, V.; Gosling, S. N.; Dankers, R.; Daggupati, P.; Donnelly, C.; Florke, M.; Huang, S.; Motovilov, Y.; Buda, S.;

Aspect of ECMWF downscaled Regional Climate Modeling in simulating Indian summer monsoon rainfall and dependencies on lateral boundary conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, Soumik; Bhatla, R.; Mall, R. K.; Srivastava, Prashant K.; Sahai, A. K.

2018-03-01

Climate model faces considerable difficulties in simulating the rainfall characteristics of southwest summer monsoon. In this study, the dynamical downscaling of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast's (ECMWF's) ERA-Interim (EIN15) has been utilized for the simulation of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) through the Regional Climate Model version 4.3 (RegCM-4.3) over the South Asia Co-Ordinated Regional Climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) domain. The complexities of model simulation over a particular terrain are generally influenced by factors such as complex topography, coastal boundary, and lack of unbiased initial and lateral boundary conditions. In order to overcome some of these limitations, the RegCM-4.3 is employed for simulating the rainfall characteristics over the complex topographical conditions. For reliable rainfall simulation, implementations of numerous lower boundary conditions are forced in the RegCM-4.3 with specific horizontal grid resolution of 50 km over South Asia CORDEX domain. The analysis is considered for 30 years of climatological simulation of rainfall, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), mean sea level pressure (MSLP), and wind with different vertical levels over the specified region. The dependency of model simulation with the forcing of EIN15 initial and lateral boundary conditions is used to understand the impact of simulated rainfall characteristics during different phases of summer monsoon. The results obtained from this study are used to evaluate the activity of initial conditions of zonal wind circulation speed, which causes an increase in the uncertainty of regional model output over the region under investigation. Further, the results showed that the EIN15 zonal wind circulation lacks sufficient speed over the specified region in a particular time, which was carried forward by the RegCM output and leads to a disrupted regional simulation in the climate model.

Land use and climate change impacts on runoff and soil erosion at the hillslope scale in the Brazilian Cerrado.

PubMed

Anache, Jamil A A; Flanagan, Dennis C; Srivastava, Anurag; Wendland, Edson C

2018-05-01

Land use and climate change can influence runoff and soil erosion, threatening soil and water conservation in the Cerrado biome in Brazil. The adoption of a process-based model was necessary due to the lack of long-term observed data. Our goals were to calibrate the WEPP (Water Erosion Prediction Project) model for different land uses under subtropical conditions in the Cerrado biome; predict runoff and soil erosion for these different land uses; and simulate runoff and soil erosion considering climate change. We performed the model calibration using a 5-year dataset (2012-2016) of observed runoff and soil loss in four different land uses (wooded Cerrado, tilled fallow without plant cover, pasture, and sugarcane) in experimental plots. Selected soil and management parameters were optimized for each land use during the WEPP model calibration with the existing field data. The simulations were conducted using the calibrated WEPP model components with a 100-year climate dataset created with CLIGEN (weather generator) based on regional climate statistics. We obtained downscaled General Circulation Model (GCM) projections, and runoff and soil loss were predicted with WEPP using future climate scenarios for 2030, 2060, and 2090 considering different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The WEPP model had an acceptable performance for the subtropical conditions. Land use can influence runoff and soil loss rates in a significant way. Potential climate changes, which indicate the increase of rainfall intensities and depths, may increase the variability and rates of runoff and soil erosion. However, projected climate changes did not significantly affect the runoff and soil erosion for the four analyzed land uses at our location. Finally, the runoff behavior was distinct for each land use, but for soil loss we found similarities between pasture and wooded Cerrado, suggesting that the soil may attain a sustainable level when the land management follows conservation principles. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pliocene environments and climates in the western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, R.S.

1991-01-01

The available evidence from the western United States suggests that the climate of the Early and Middle Pliocene (prior to ???2.4 Ma) was less seasonal (more equable) and generally more humid than now. Along the Pacific coast, summer drought was less pronounced than today. In the interior of the Pacific Northwest rainfall was more abundant and mild winter temperatures prevailed across much of the High Plains. In the Northwestern interior, a trend toward drier conditions began after ???4 Ma, although there may have been short periods of relatively humid conditions after this time. The period between 2.5 or 2.4-2.0 Ma was drier than earlier in the Pliocene throughout the American West, and apparently colder in many regions, although the occurrence of land tortoises as far north as Kansas may indicate intermittent frost-free conditions during this interval. After ???2.0 Ma conditions became warmer and more humid. The general climatic trends in the terrestrial data parallel fluctuations seen in North Pacific and in Oxygen Isotopic records of global glacial fluctuations. Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations of the regional effects of Late Cenozoic uplift and mountain-building are generally in accord with the nature, direction, and amplitude of differences between Pliocene and modern climates. ?? 1991.

Climate reconstruction analysis using coexistence likelihood estimation (CRACLE): a method for the estimation of climate using vegetation.

PubMed

Harbert, Robert S; Nixon, Kevin C

2015-08-01

• Plant distributions have long been understood to be correlated with the environmental conditions to which species are adapted. Climate is one of the major components driving species distributions. Therefore, it is expected that the plants coexisting in a community are reflective of the local environment, particularly climate.• Presented here is a method for the estimation of climate from local plant species coexistence data. The method, Climate Reconstruction Analysis using Coexistence Likelihood Estimation (CRACLE), is a likelihood-based method that employs specimen collection data at a global scale for the inference of species climate tolerance. CRACLE calculates the maximum joint likelihood of coexistence given individual species climate tolerance characterization to estimate the expected climate.• Plant distribution data for more than 4000 species were used to show that this method accurately infers expected climate profiles for 165 sites with diverse climatic conditions. Estimates differ from the WorldClim global climate model by less than 1.5°C on average for mean annual temperature and less than ∼250 mm for mean annual precipitation. This is a significant improvement upon other plant-based climate-proxy methods.• CRACLE validates long hypothesized interactions between climate and local associations of plant species. Furthermore, CRACLE successfully estimates climate that is consistent with the widely used WorldClim model and therefore may be applied to the quantitative estimation of paleoclimate in future studies. © 2015 Botanical Society of America, Inc.

Spatial-temporal event detection in climate parameter imagery.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McKenna, Sean Andrew; Gutierrez, Karen A.

Previously developed techniques that comprise statistical parametric mapping, with applications focused on human brain imaging, are examined and tested here for new applications in anomaly detection within remotely-sensed imagery. Two approaches to analysis are developed: online, regression-based anomaly detection and conditional differences. These approaches are applied to two example spatial-temporal data sets: data simulated with a Gaussian field deformation approach and weekly NDVI images derived from global satellite coverage. Results indicate that anomalies can be identified in spatial temporal data with the regression-based approach. Additionally, la Nina and el Nino climatic conditions are used as different stimuli applied to themore » earth and this comparison shows that el Nino conditions lead to significant decreases in NDVI in both the Amazon Basin and in Southern India.« less

Effect of heat and moisture transport and storage properties of building stones on the hygrothermal performance of historical building envelopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

KoÅáková, Dana; Kočí, Václav; Žumár, Jaromír; Keppert, Martin; Holčapek, Ondřej; Vejmelková, Eva; Černý, Robert

2016-12-01

The heat and moisture transport and storage parameters of three different natural stones used on the Czech territory since medieval times are determined experimentally, together with the basic physical properties and mechanical parameters. The measured data are applied as input parameters in the computational modeling of hygrothermal performance of building envelopes made of the analyzed stones. Test reference year climatic data of three different locations within the Czech Republic are used as boundary conditions on the exterior side. Using the simulated hygric and thermal performance of particular stone walls, their applicability is assessed in a relation to the geographical and climatic conditions. The obtained results indicate that all three investigated stones are highly resistant to weather conditions, freeze/thaw cycles in particular.

Climate Twins - a tool to explore future climate impacts by assessing real world conditions: Exploration principles, underlying data, similarity conditions and uncertainty ranges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loibl, Wolfgang; Peters-Anders, Jan; Züger, Johann

2010-05-01

To achieve public awareness and thorough understanding about expected climate changes and their future implications, ways have to be found to communicate model outputs to the public in a scientifically sound and easily understandable way. The newly developed Climate Twins tool tries to fulfil these requirements via an intuitively usable web application, which compares spatial patterns of current climate with future climate patterns, derived from regional climate model results. To get a picture of the implications of future climate in an area of interest, users may click on a certain location within an interactive map with underlying future climate information. A second map depicts the matching Climate Twin areas according to current climate conditions. In this way scientific output can be communicated to the public which allows for experiencing climate change through comparison with well-known real world conditions. To identify climatic coincidence seems to be a simple exercise, but the accuracy and applicability of the similarity identification depends very much on the selection of climate indicators, similarity conditions and uncertainty ranges. Too many indicators representing various climate characteristics and too narrow uncertainty ranges will judge little or no area as regions with similar climate, while too little indicators and too wide uncertainty ranges will address too large regions as those with similar climate which may not be correct. Similarity cannot be just explored by comparing mean values or by calculating correlation coefficients. As climate change triggers an alteration of various indicators, like maxima, minima, variation magnitude, frequency of extreme events etc., the identification of appropriate similarity conditions is a crucial question to be solved. For Climate Twins identification, it is necessary to find a right balance of indicators, similarity conditions and uncertainty ranges, unless the results will be too vague conducting a useful Climate Twins regions search. The Climate Twins tool works actually comparing future climate conditions of a certain source area in the Greater Alpine Region with current climate conditions of entire Europe and the neighbouring southern as well south-eastern areas as target regions. A next version will integrate web crawling features for searching information about climate-related local adaptations observed today in the target region which may turn out as appropriate solution for the source region under future climate conditions. The contribution will present the current tool functionally and will discuss which indicator sets, similarity conditions and uncertainty ranges work best to deliver scientifically sound climate comparisons and distinct mapping results.

Climate impacts on human livelihoods: where uncertainty matters in projections of water availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lissner, T. K.; Reusser, D. E.; Schewe, J.; Lakes, T.; Kropp, J. P.

2014-03-01

Climate change will have adverse impacts on many different sectors of society, with manifold consequences for human livelihoods and well-being. However, a systematic method to quantify human well-being and livelihoods across sectors is so far unavailable, making it difficult to determine the extent of such impacts. Climate impact analyses are often limited to individual sectors (e.g. food or water) and employ sector-specific target-measures, while systematic linkages to general livelihood conditions remain unexplored. Further, recent multi-model assessments have shown that uncertainties in projections of climate impacts deriving from climate and impact models as well as greenhouse gas scenarios are substantial, posing an additional challenge in linking climate impacts with livelihood conditions. This article first presents a methodology to consistently measure Adequate Human livelihood conditions for wEll-being And Development (AHEAD). Based on a transdisciplinary sample of influential concepts addressing human well-being, the approach measures the adequacy of conditions of 16 elements. We implement the method at global scale, using results from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) to show how changes in water availability affect the fulfilment of AHEAD at national resolution. In addition, AHEAD allows identifying and differentiating uncertainty of climate and impact model projections. We show how the approach can help to put the substantial inter-model spread into the context of country-specific livelihood conditions by differentiating where the uncertainty about water scarcity is relevant with regard to livelihood conditions - and where it is not. The results indicate that in many countries today, livelihood conditions are compromised by water scarcity. However, more often, AHEAD fulfilment is limited through other elements. Moreover, the analysis shows that for 44 out of 111 countries, the water-specific uncertainty ranges are outside relevant thresholds for AHEAD, and therefore do not contribute to the overall uncertainty about climate change impacts on livelihoods. The AHEAD method presented here, together with first results, forms an important step towards making scientific results more applicable for policy-decisions.

Climate impacts on human livelihoods: where uncertainty matters in projections of water availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lissner, T. K.; Reusser, D. E.; Schewe, J.; Lakes, T.; Kropp, J. P.

2014-10-01

Climate change will have adverse impacts on many different sectors of society, with manifold consequences for human livelihoods and well-being. However, a systematic method to quantify human well-being and livelihoods across sectors is so far unavailable, making it difficult to determine the extent of such impacts. Climate impact analyses are often limited to individual sectors (e.g. food or water) and employ sector-specific target measures, while systematic linkages to general livelihood conditions remain unexplored. Further, recent multi-model assessments have shown that uncertainties in projections of climate impacts deriving from climate and impact models, as well as greenhouse gas scenarios, are substantial, posing an additional challenge in linking climate impacts with livelihood conditions. This article first presents a methodology to consistently measure what is referred to here as AHEAD (Adequate Human livelihood conditions for wEll-being And Development). Based on a trans-disciplinary sample of concepts addressing human well-being and livelihoods, the approach measures the adequacy of conditions of 16 elements. We implement the method at global scale, using results from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) to show how changes in water availability affect the fulfilment of AHEAD at national resolution. In addition, AHEAD allows for the uncertainty of climate and impact model projections to be identified and differentiated. We show how the approach can help to put the substantial inter-model spread into the context of country-specific livelihood conditions by differentiating where the uncertainty about water scarcity is relevant with regard to livelihood conditions - and where it is not. The results indicate that livelihood conditions are compromised by water scarcity in 34 countries. However, more often, AHEAD fulfilment is limited through other elements. The analysis shows that the water-specific uncertainty ranges of the model output are outside relevant thresholds for AHEAD for 65 out of 111 countries, and therefore do not contribute to the overall uncertainty about climate change impacts on livelihoods. In 46 of the countries in the analysis, water-specific uncertainty is relevant to AHEAD. The AHEAD method presented here, together with first results, forms an important step towards making scientific results more applicable for policy decisions.

Projected wetland densities under climate change: Habitat loss but little geographic shift in conservation strategy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sofaer, Helen R.; Skagen, Susan K.; Barsugli, Joseph J.; Rashford, Benjamin S.; Reese, Gordon C.; Hoeting, Jennifer A.; Wood, Andrew W.; Noon, Barry R.

2016-01-01

Climate change poses major challenges for conservation and management because it alters the area, quality, and spatial distribution of habitat for natural populations. To assess species’ vulnerability to climate change and target ongoing conservation investments, researchers and managers often consider the effects of projected changes in climate and land use on future habitat availability and quality and the uncertainty associated with these projections. Here, we draw on tools from hydrology and climate science to project the impact of climate change on the density of wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of the USA, a critical area for breeding waterfowl and other wetland-dependent species. We evaluate the potential for a trade-off in the value of conservation investments under current and future climatic conditions and consider the joint effects of climate and land use. We use an integrated set of hydrological and climatological projections that provide physically based measures of water balance under historical and projected future climatic conditions. In addition, we use historical projections derived from ten general circulation models (GCMs) as a baseline from which to assess climate change impacts, rather than historical climate data. This method isolates the impact of greenhouse gas emissions and ensures that modeling errors are incorporated into the baseline rather than attributed to climate change. Our work shows that, on average, densities of wetlands (here defined as wetland basins holding water) are projected to decline across the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region, but that GCMs differ in both the magnitude and the direction of projected impacts. However, we found little evidence for a shift in the locations expected to provide the highest wetland densities under current vs. projected climatic conditions. This result was robust to the inclusion of projected changes in land use under climate change. We suggest that targeting conservation towards wetland complexes containing both small and relatively large wetland basins, which is an ongoing conservation strategy, may also act to hedge against uncertainty in the effects of climate change.

Cold Regime Interannual Variability of Primary and Secondary Producer Community Composition in the Southeastern Bering Sea

PubMed Central

Stauffer, Beth A.; Miksis-Olds, Jennifer; Goes, Joaquim I.

2015-01-01

Variability of hydrographic conditions and primary and secondary productivity between cold and warm climatic regimes in the Bering Sea has been the subject of much study in recent years, while interannual variability within a single regime and across multiple trophic levels has been less well-documented. Measurements from an instrumented mooring on the southeastern shelf of the Bering Sea were analyzed for the spring-to-summer transitions within the cold regime years of 2009–2012 to investigate the interannual variability of hydrographic conditions, primary producer biomass, and acoustically-derived secondary producer and consumer abundance and community structure. Hydrographic conditions in 2012 were significantly different than in 2009, 2010, and 2011, driven largely by increased ice extent and thickness, later ice retreat, and earlier stratification of the water column. Primary producer biomass was more tightly coupled to hydrographic conditions in 2012 than in 2009 or 2011, and shallow and mid-column phytoplankton blooms tended to occur independent of one another. There was a high degree of variability in the relationships between different classes of secondary producers and hydrographic conditions, evidence of significant intra-consumer interactions, and trade-offs between different consumer size classes in each year. Phytoplankton blooms stimulated different populations of secondary producers in each year, and summer consumer populations appeared to determine dominant populations in the subsequent spring. Overall, primary producers and secondary producers were more tightly coupled to each other and to hydrographic conditions in the coldest year compared to the warmer years. The highly variable nature of the interactions between the atmospherically-driven hydrographic environment, primary and secondary producers, and within food webs underscores the need to revisit how climatic regimes within the Bering Sea are defined and predicted to function given changing climate scenarios. PMID:26110822

Bioclimatic comfort and the thermal perceptions and preferences of beach tourists

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutty, Michelle; Scott, Daniel

2015-01-01

The largest market segment of global tourism is coastal tourism, which is strongly dependent on the destination's thermal climate. To date, outdoor bioclimatic comfort assessments have focused exclusively on local residents in open urban areas, making it unclear whether outdoor comfort is perceived differently in non-urban environments or by non-residents (i.e. tourists) with different weather expectations and activity patterns. This study provides needed insight into the perception of outdoor microclimatic conditions in a coastal environment while simultaneously identifying important psychological factors that differentiate tourists from everyday users of urban spaces. Concurrent micrometeorological measurements were taken on several Caribbean beaches in the islands of Barbados, Saint Lucia and Tobago, while a questionnaire survey was used to examine the thermal comfort of subjects ( n = 472). Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) conditions of 32 to 39 °C were recorded, which were perceived as being "slightly warm" or "warm" by respondents. Most beach users (48 to 77 %) would not change the thermal conditions, with some (4 to 15 %) preferring even warmer conditions. Even at UTCI of 39 °C, 62 % of respondents voted for no change to current thermal conditions, with an additional 10 % stating that they would like to feel even warmer. These results indicate that beach users' thermal preferences are up to 18 °C warmer than the preferred thermal conditions identified in existing outdoor bioclimatic studies from urban park settings. This indicates that beach users hold fundamentally different comfort perceptions and preferences compared to people using urban spaces. Statistically significant differences ( p ≤ .05) were also recorded for demographic groups (gender, age) and place of origin (climatic region).

Cold Regime interannual variability of primary and secondary producer community composition in the southeastern Bering Sea.

PubMed

Stauffer, Beth A; Miksis-Olds, Jennifer; Goes, Joaquim I

2015-01-01

Variability of hydrographic conditions and primary and secondary productivity between cold and warm climatic regimes in the Bering Sea has been the subject of much study in recent years, while interannual variability within a single regime and across multiple trophic levels has been less well-documented. Measurements from an instrumented mooring on the southeastern shelf of the Bering Sea were analyzed for the spring-to-summer transitions within the cold regime years of 2009-2012 to investigate the interannual variability of hydrographic conditions, primary producer biomass, and acoustically-derived secondary producer and consumer abundance and community structure. Hydrographic conditions in 2012 were significantly different than in 2009, 2010, and 2011, driven largely by increased ice extent and thickness, later ice retreat, and earlier stratification of the water column. Primary producer biomass was more tightly coupled to hydrographic conditions in 2012 than in 2009 or 2011, and shallow and mid-column phytoplankton blooms tended to occur independent of one another. There was a high degree of variability in the relationships between different classes of secondary producers and hydrographic conditions, evidence of significant intra-consumer interactions, and trade-offs between different consumer size classes in each year. Phytoplankton blooms stimulated different populations of secondary producers in each year, and summer consumer populations appeared to determine dominant populations in the subsequent spring. Overall, primary producers and secondary producers were more tightly coupled to each other and to hydrographic conditions in the coldest year compared to the warmer years. The highly variable nature of the interactions between the atmospherically-driven hydrographic environment, primary and secondary producers, and within food webs underscores the need to revisit how climatic regimes within the Bering Sea are defined and predicted to function given changing climate scenarios.

Bioclimatic comfort and the thermal perceptions and preferences of beach tourists.

PubMed

Rutty, Michelle; Scott, Daniel

2015-01-01

The largest market segment of global tourism is coastal tourism, which is strongly dependent on the destination's thermal climate. To date, outdoor bioclimatic comfort assessments have focused exclusively on local residents in open urban areas, making it unclear whether outdoor comfort is perceived differently in non-urban environments or by non-residents (i.e. tourists) with different weather expectations and activity patterns. This study provides needed insight into the perception of outdoor microclimatic conditions in a coastal environment while simultaneously identifying important psychological factors that differentiate tourists from everyday users of urban spaces. Concurrent micrometeorological measurements were taken on several Caribbean beaches in the islands of Barbados, Saint Lucia and Tobago, while a questionnaire survey was used to examine the thermal comfort of subjects (n = 472). Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) conditions of 32 to 39 °C were recorded, which were perceived as being "slightly warm" or "warm" by respondents. Most beach users (48 to 77 %) would not change the thermal conditions, with some (4 to 15 %) preferring even warmer conditions. Even at UTCI of 39 °C, 62 % of respondents voted for no change to current thermal conditions, with an additional 10 % stating that they would like to feel even warmer. These results indicate that beach users' thermal preferences are up to 18 °C warmer than the preferred thermal conditions identified in existing outdoor bioclimatic studies from urban park settings. This indicates that beach users hold fundamentally different comfort perceptions and preferences compared to people using urban spaces. Statistically significant differences (p ≤ .05) were also recorded for demographic groups (gender, age) and place of origin (climatic region).

State Wildlife Action Plans as Tools for Adapting to a Continuously Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metivier, D. W.; Yocum, H.; Ray, A. J.

2015-12-01

Public land management plans are potentially powerful policies for building sustainability and adaptive capacity. Land managers are recognizing the need to respond to numerous climate change impacts on natural and human systems. For the first time, in 2015, the federal government required each state to incorporate climate change into their State Wildlife Action Plans (SWAP) as a condition for funding. As important land management tools, SWAPs have the potential to guide state agencies in shaping and implementing practices for climate change adaptation. Intended to be revised every ten years, SWAPs can change as conditions and understanding of climate change evolves. This study asks what practices are states using to integrate climate change, and how does this vary between states? To answer this question, we conducted a broad analysis among seven states (CO, MT, NE, ND, SD, UT, WY) and a more in-depth analysis of four states (CO, ND, SD, WY). We use seven key factors that represent best practices for incorporating climate change identified in the literature. These best practices are species prioritization, key habitats, threats, monitoring, partnerships and participation, identification of management options, and implementation of management options. The in-depth analysis focuses on how states are using climate change information for specific habitats addressed in the plans. We find that states are integrating climate change in many different ways, showing varying degrees of sophistication and preparedness. We summarize different practices and highlight opportunities to improve the effectiveness of plans through: communication tools across state lines and stakeholders, explicit targeting of key habitats, enforcement and monitoring progress and success, and conducting vulnerability analyses that incorporate topics beyond climate and include other drivers, trajectories, and implications of historic and future land-use change.

Genetic divergence in the common bush-tanager Chlorospingus ophthalmicus (Aves: Emberizidae) throughout Mexican cloud forests: The role of geography, ecology and Pleistocene climatic fluctuations.

PubMed

Maldonado-Sánchez, Denisse; Gutiérrez-Rodríguez, Carla; Ornelas, Juan Francisco

2016-06-01

By integrating mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), microsatellites and ecological niche modelling (ENM), we investigated the phylogeography of Mexican populations of the common bush-tanager Chlorospingus ophthalmicus to examine the relative role of geographical and ecological features, as well as Pleistocene climatic oscillations in driving the diversification. We sequenced mtDNA of individuals collected throughout the species range in Mexico and genotyped them at seven microsatellite loci. Phylogeographic, population genetics and coalescent methods were used to assess patterns of genetic structure, gene flow and demographic history. ENM was used to infer contractions and expansions at different time periods as well as differences in climatic conditions among lineages. The retrieved mitochondrial and microsatellite groups correspond with the fragmented cloud forest distribution in mountain ranges and morphotectonic provinces. Differing climatic conditions between mountain ranges were detected, and palaeodistribution modelling as well as demographic history analyses, indicated recent population expansions throughout the Sierra Madre Oriental (SMO). The marked genetic structure of C. ophthalmicus was promoted by the presence of ecological and geographical barriers that restricted the movement of individuals among mountain ranges. The SMO was mainly affected by Pleistocene climatic oscillations, with the moist forests model best fitting the displayed genetic patterns of populations in this mountain range. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Response of wheat yield in Spain to large-scale patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez-Barrera, Sara; Rodriguez-Puebla, Concepcion

2016-04-01

Crops are vulnerable to extreme climate conditions as drought, heat stress and frost risk. In previous study we have quantified the influence of these climate conditions for winter wheat in Spain (Hernandez-Barrera et al. 2015). The climate extremes respond to large-scale atmospheric and oceanic patterns. Therefore, a question emerges in our investigation: How large-scale patterns affect wheat yield? Obtaining and understanding these relationships require different approaches. In this study, we first obtained the leading mode of observed wheat yield variability to characterize the common variability over different provinces in Spain. Then, the wheat variability is related to different modes of mean sea level pressure, jet stream and sea surface temperature by using Partial Least-Squares, which captures the relevant climate drivers accounting for variations in wheat yield from sowing to harvesting. We used the ERA-Interim reanalysis data and the Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (SST) (ERSST v3b). The derived model provides insight about the teleconnections between wheat yield and atmospheric and oceanic circulations, which is considered to project the wheat yield trend under global warming using outputs of twelve climate models corresponding to the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Hernandez-Barrera S., C. Rodríguez-Puebla and A.J. Challinor. Effects of diurnal temperature range and drought on wheat yield in Spain. Theoretical and Applied Climatology (submitted)

Contribution of the climatic transect approach application to the study of soil degradation in South of Spain.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz-Sinoga, José D.; Gabarrón-Galeote, Miguel A.; Cerdà, Artemi; Martínez-Murillo, Juan F.

2014-05-01

Since 1990s, the climatic transect approach has been widely applied to Mediterranean mountainous areas where climatic conditions are modified in few kilometres, from semiarid to humid conditions. The target in most of the cases was to evaluate the climatic change effect on the spatial variability of eco-geomorphological system, runoff and erosion and soil degradation processes, especially, in abandoned fields and Mediterranean rangeland. The Physical Geography and Land Management Research Group from the University of Málaga is applying this experimental approach since 2001. The study area corresponded to the Mediterranean Cordillera Bética in South of Spain, from the Strait of Gibraltar to Cabo de Gata, where a longitudinal climatic transect can be observed: from humid Mediterranean climate in the West (>1,500 mm/y) to nearly arid Mediterranean climate in the East (200 mm/y). More specifically, the investigations were focussed on the spatial and temporal variability of eco-geomorphological system (vegetation, soil and water relationship), runoff and erosion processes and controlling factors affecting to abandoned fields located in steep hillslopes of metamorphic and acid bedrocks (phyllites, schists and mica-schists) but differing in climatic conditions (humid, subhumid, dry and semiarid Mediterranean climate). The aim of this contribution is to share our findings and challenges from the last 13 years being some of the most important ones: i) Mediterranean summer drought homogenise the functioning of eco-geomorphological system independently of the geographical location along the climatic transect; ii) drought period affects more dramatically to humid and subhumid Mediterranean areas, especially, to the vegetation cover and pattern; iii) areas characterised by dry-Mediterranean climate are found as threshold areas and in risk of aridification due to Climate Change; iv) runoff and erosion processes can be similar in humid and semiarid abandoned lands as it has to be taken into account local factors, such as exposure, repellency of soils to water and, especially, soil surface conditions. Further researches follow the transect approach but being applying to areas affected by recent and old fires in order to assess the effects of climate in the post-fire recovery of Mediterranean eco-geomorphological system and erosion processes.

Dynamical Core in Atmospheric Model Does Matter in the Simulation of Arctic Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jun, Sang-Yoon; Choi, Suk-Jin; Kim, Baek-Min

2018-03-01

Climate models using different dynamical cores can simulate significantly different winter Arctic climates even if equipped with virtually the same physics schemes. Current climate simulated by the global climate model using cubed-sphere grid with spectral element method (SE core) exhibited significantly warmer Arctic surface air temperature compared to that using latitude-longitude grid with finite volume method core. Compared to the finite volume method core, SE core simulated additional adiabatic warming in the Arctic lower atmosphere, and this was consistent with the eddy-forced secondary circulation. Downward longwave radiation further enhanced Arctic near-surface warming with a higher surface air temperature of about 1.9 K. Furthermore, in the atmospheric response to the reduced sea ice conditions with the same physical settings, only the SE core showed a robust cooling response over North America. We emphasize that special attention is needed in selecting the dynamical core of climate models in the simulation of the Arctic climate and associated teleconnection patterns.

Rates of projected climate change dramatically exceed past rates of climatic niche evolution among vertebrate species.

PubMed

Quintero, Ignacio; Wiens, John J

2013-08-01

A key question in predicting responses to anthropogenic climate change is: how quickly can species adapt to different climatic conditions? Here, we take a phylogenetic approach to this question. We use 17 time-calibrated phylogenies representing the major tetrapod clades (amphibians, birds, crocodilians, mammals, squamates, turtles) and climatic data from distributions of > 500 extant species. We estimate rates of change based on differences in climatic variables between sister species and estimated times of their splitting. We compare these rates to predicted rates of climate change from 2000 to 2100. Our results are striking: matching projected changes for 2100 would require rates of niche evolution that are > 10,000 times faster than rates typically observed among species, for most variables and clades. Despite many caveats, our results suggest that adaptation to projected changes in the next 100 years would require rates that are largely unprecedented based on observed rates among vertebrate species. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Assessment of a stochastic downscaling methodology in generating an ensemble of hourly future climate time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fatichi, S.; Ivanov, V. Y.; Caporali, E.

2013-04-01

This study extends a stochastic downscaling methodology to generation of an ensemble of hourly time series of meteorological variables that express possible future climate conditions at a point-scale. The stochastic downscaling uses general circulation model (GCM) realizations and an hourly weather generator, the Advanced WEather GENerator (AWE-GEN). Marginal distributions of factors of change are computed for several climate statistics using a Bayesian methodology that can weight GCM realizations based on the model relative performance with respect to a historical climate and a degree of disagreement in projecting future conditions. A Monte Carlo technique is used to sample the factors of change from their respective marginal distributions. As a comparison with traditional approaches, factors of change are also estimated by averaging GCM realizations. With either approach, the derived factors of change are applied to the climate statistics inferred from historical observations to re-evaluate parameters of the weather generator. The re-parameterized generator yields hourly time series of meteorological variables that can be considered to be representative of future climate conditions. In this study, the time series are generated in an ensemble mode to fully reflect the uncertainty of GCM projections, climate stochasticity, as well as uncertainties of the downscaling procedure. Applications of the methodology in reproducing future climate conditions for the periods of 2000-2009, 2046-2065 and 2081-2100, using the period of 1962-1992 as the historical baseline are discussed for the location of Firenze (Italy). The inferences of the methodology for the period of 2000-2009 are tested against observations to assess reliability of the stochastic downscaling procedure in reproducing statistics of meteorological variables at different time scales.

Regional paleofire regimes affected by non-uniform climate, vegetation and human drivers

PubMed Central

Blarquez, Olivier; Ali, Adam A.; Girardin, Martin P.; Grondin, Pierre; Fréchette, Bianca; Bergeron, Yves; Hély, Christelle

2015-01-01

Climate, vegetation and humans act on biomass burning at different spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we used a dense network of sedimentary charcoal records from eastern Canada to reconstruct regional biomass burning history over the last 7000 years at the scale of four potential vegetation types: open coniferous forest/tundra, boreal coniferous forest, boreal mixedwood forest and temperate forest. The biomass burning trajectories were compared with regional climate trends reconstructed from general circulation models, tree biomass reconstructed from pollen series, and human population densities. We found that non-uniform climate, vegetation and human drivers acted on regional biomass burning history. In the open coniferous forest/tundra and dense coniferous forest, the regional biomass burning was primarily shaped by gradual establishment of less climate-conducive burning conditions over 5000 years. In the mixed boreal forest an increasing relative proportion of flammable conifers in landscapes since 2000 BP contributed to maintaining biomass burning constant despite climatic conditions less favourable to fires. In the temperate forest, biomass burning was uncoupled with climatic conditions and the main driver was seemingly vegetation until European colonization, i.e. 300 BP. Tree biomass and thus fuel accumulation modulated fire activity, an indication that biomass burning is fuel-dependent and notably upon long-term co-dominance shifts between conifers and broadleaf trees. PMID:26330162

Predicting the evolutionary dynamics of seasonal adaptation to novel climates in Arabidopsis thaliana

PubMed Central

Fournier-Level, Alexandre; Perry, Emily O.; Wang, Jonathan A.; Braun, Peter T.; Migneault, Andrew; Cooper, Martha D.; Metcalf, C. Jessica E.; Schmitt, Johanna

2016-01-01

Predicting whether and how populations will adapt to rapid climate change is a critical goal for evolutionary biology. To examine the genetic basis of fitness and predict adaptive evolution in novel climates with seasonal variation, we grew a diverse panel of the annual plant Arabidopsis thaliana (multiparent advanced generation intercross lines) in controlled conditions simulating four climates: a present-day reference climate, an increased-temperature climate, a winter-warming only climate, and a poleward-migration climate with increased photoperiod amplitude. In each climate, four successive seasonal cohorts experienced dynamic daily temperature and photoperiod variation over a year. We measured 12 traits and developed a genomic prediction model for fitness evolution in each seasonal environment. This model was used to simulate evolutionary trajectories of the base population over 50 y in each climate, as well as 100-y scenarios of gradual climate change following adaptation to a reference climate. Patterns of plastic and evolutionary fitness response varied across seasons and climates. The increased-temperature climate promoted genetic divergence of subpopulations across seasons, whereas in the winter-warming and poleward-migration climates, seasonal genetic differentiation was reduced. In silico “resurrection experiments” showed limited evolutionary rescue compared with the plastic response of fitness to seasonal climate change. The genetic basis of adaptation and, consequently, the dynamics of evolutionary change differed qualitatively among scenarios. Populations with fewer founding genotypes and populations with genetic diversity reduced by prior selection adapted less well to novel conditions, demonstrating that adaptation to rapid climate change requires the maintenance of sufficient standing variation. PMID:27140640

Predicting the evolutionary dynamics of seasonal adaptation to novel climates in Arabidopsis thaliana.

PubMed

Fournier-Level, Alexandre; Perry, Emily O; Wang, Jonathan A; Braun, Peter T; Migneault, Andrew; Cooper, Martha D; Metcalf, C Jessica E; Schmitt, Johanna

2016-05-17

Predicting whether and how populations will adapt to rapid climate change is a critical goal for evolutionary biology. To examine the genetic basis of fitness and predict adaptive evolution in novel climates with seasonal variation, we grew a diverse panel of the annual plant Arabidopsis thaliana (multiparent advanced generation intercross lines) in controlled conditions simulating four climates: a present-day reference climate, an increased-temperature climate, a winter-warming only climate, and a poleward-migration climate with increased photoperiod amplitude. In each climate, four successive seasonal cohorts experienced dynamic daily temperature and photoperiod variation over a year. We measured 12 traits and developed a genomic prediction model for fitness evolution in each seasonal environment. This model was used to simulate evolutionary trajectories of the base population over 50 y in each climate, as well as 100-y scenarios of gradual climate change following adaptation to a reference climate. Patterns of plastic and evolutionary fitness response varied across seasons and climates. The increased-temperature climate promoted genetic divergence of subpopulations across seasons, whereas in the winter-warming and poleward-migration climates, seasonal genetic differentiation was reduced. In silico "resurrection experiments" showed limited evolutionary rescue compared with the plastic response of fitness to seasonal climate change. The genetic basis of adaptation and, consequently, the dynamics of evolutionary change differed qualitatively among scenarios. Populations with fewer founding genotypes and populations with genetic diversity reduced by prior selection adapted less well to novel conditions, demonstrating that adaptation to rapid climate change requires the maintenance of sufficient standing variation.

Response of North American freshwater lakes to simulated future climates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hostetler, S.W.; Small, E.E.

1999-01-01

We apply a physically based lake model to assess the response of North American lakes to future climate conditions as portrayed by the transient trace-gas simulations conducted with the Max Planck Institute (ECHAM4) and the Canadian Climate Center (CGCM1) atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (A/OGCMs). To quantify spatial patterns of lake responses (temperature, mixing, ice cover, evaporation) we ran the lake model for theoretical lakes of specified area, depth, and transparency over a uniformly spaced (50 km) grid. The simulations were conducted for two 10-year periods that represent present climatic conditions and those around the time of CO2 doubling. Although the climate model output produces simulated lake responses that differ in specific regional details, there is broad agreement with regard to the direction and area of change. In particular, lake temperatures are generally warmer in the future as a result of warmer climatic conditions and a substantial loss (> 100 days/yr) of winter ice cover. Simulated summer lake temperatures are higher than 30??C ever the Midwest and south, suggesting the potential for future disturbance of existing aquatic ecosystems. Overall increases in lake evaporation combine with disparate changes in A/OGCM precipitation to produce future changes in net moisture (precipitation minus evaporation) that are of less fidelity than those of lake temperature.

Inter-comparison of precipitable water among reanalyses and its effect on downscaling in the tropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takahashi, H. G.; Fujita, M.; Hara, M.

2012-12-01

This paper compared precipitable water (PW) among four major reanalyses. In addition, we also investigated the effect of the boundary conditions on downscaling in the tropics, using a regional climate model. The spatial pattern of PW in the reanalyses agreed closely with observations. However, the absolute amounts of PW in some reanalyses were very small compared to observations. The discrepancies of the 12-year mean PW in July over the Southeast Asian monsoon region exceeded the inter-annual standard deviation of the PW. There was also a discrepancy in tropical PWs throughout the year, an indication that the problem is not regional, but global. The downscaling experiments were conducted, which were forced by the different four reanalyses. The atmospheric circulation, including monsoon westerlies and various disturbances, was very small among the reanalyses. However, simulated precipitation was only 60 % of observed precipitation, although the dry bias in the boundary conditions was only 6 %. This result indicates that dry bias has large effects on precipitation in downscaling over the tropics. This suggests that a simulated regional climate downscaled from ensemble-mean boundary conditions is quite different from an ensemble-mean regional climate averaged over the several regional ones downscaled from boundary conditions of the ensemble members in the tropics. Downscaled models can provide realistic simulations of regional tropical climates only if the boundary conditions include realistic absolute amounts of PW. Use of boundary conditions that include realistic absolute amounts of PW in downscaling in the tropics is imperative at the present time. This work was partly supported by the Global Environment Research Fund (RFa-1101) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.

Modeling Insights into Deuterium Excess as an Indicator of Water Vapor Source Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewis, Sophie C.; Legrande, Allegra Nicole; Kelley, Maxwell; Schmidt, Gavin A.

2013-01-01

Deuterium excess (d) is interpreted in conventional paleoclimate reconstructions as a tracer of oceanic source region conditions, such as temperature, where precipitation originates. Previous studies have adopted co-isotopic approaches to estimate past changes in both site and oceanic source temperatures for ice core sites using empirical relationships derived from conceptual distillation models, particularly Mixed Cloud Isotopic Models (MCIMs). However, the relationship between d and oceanic surface conditions remains unclear in past contexts. We investigate this climate-isotope relationship for sites in Greenland and Antarctica using multiple simulations of the water isotope-enabled Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE-R general circulation model and apply a novel suite of model vapor source distribution (VSD) tracers to assess d as a proxy for source temperature variability under a range of climatic conditions. Simulated average source temperatures determined by the VSDs are compared to synthetic source temperature estimates calculated using MCIM equations linking d to source region conditions. We show that although deuterium excess is generally a faithful tracer of source temperatures as estimated by the MCIM approach, large discrepancies in the isotope-climate relationship occur around Greenland during the Last Glacial Maximum simulation, when precipitation seasonality and moisture source regions were notably different from present. This identified sensitivity in d as a source temperature proxy suggests that quantitative climate reconstructions from deuterium excess should be treated with caution for some sites when boundary conditions are significantly different from the present day. Also, the exclusion of the influence of humidity and other evaporative source changes in MCIM regressions may be a limitation of quantifying source temperature fluctuations from deuterium excess in some instances.

Identification of Extreme Events Under Climate Change Conditions Over Europe and The Northwest-atlantic Region: Spatial Patterns and Time Series Characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leckebusch, G.; Ulbrich, U.; Speth, P.

In the context of climate change and the resulting possible impacts on socio-economic conditions for human activities it seems that due to a changed occurrence of extreme events more severe consequences have to be expected than from changes in the mean climate. These extreme events like floods, excessive heats and droughts or windstorms possess impacts on human social and economic life in different categories such as forestry, agriculture, energy use, tourism and the reinsurance business. Reinsurances are affected by nearly 70% of all insured damages over Europe in the case of wind- storms. Especially the December 1999 French windstorms caused damages about 10 billion. A new EU-founded project (MICE = Modelling the Impact of Climate Ex- tremes) will focus on these impacts caused by changed occurrences of extreme events over Europe. Based upon the output of general circulation models as well as regional climate models, investigations are carried out with regard to time series characteristics as well as the spatial patterns of extremes under climate changed conditions. After the definition of specific thresholds for climate extremes, in this talk we will focus on the results of the analysis for the different data sets (HadCM3 and CGCMII GCM's and RCM's, re-analyses, observations) with regard to windstorm events. At first the results of model outputs are validated against re-analyses and observations. Especially a comparison of the stormtrack (2.5 to 8 day bandpass filtered 500 hPa geopotential height), cyclone track, cyclone frequency and intensity is presented. Highly relevant to damages is the extreme wind near the ground level, so the 10 m wind speed will be investigated additionally. of special interest to possible impacts is the changed spatial occurrence of windspeed maxima under 2xCO2-induced climate change.

Testing Projected Climate Change Conditions on the Endoconidiophora polonica / Norway spruce Pathosystem Shows Fungal Strain Specific Effects.

PubMed

Linnakoski, Riikka; Forbes, Kristian M; Wingfield, Michael J; Pulkkinen, Pertti; Asiegbu, Fred O

2017-01-01

Climate changes, exemplified by increased temperatures and CO 2 concentration, pose a global threat to forest health. Of particular concern are pests and pathogens, with a warming climate altering their distributions and evolutionary capacity, while impairing the ability of some plants to respond to infections. Progress in understanding and mitigating such effects is currently hindered by a lack of empirical research. Norway spruce ( Picea abies ) is one of the most economically important tree species in northern Europe, and is considered highly vulnerable to changes in climate. It is commonly infected by the fungus Endoconidiophora polonica , and we hypothesized that damage caused to trees will increase under future climate change predictions. To test this hypothesis an in vivo greenhouse experiment was conducted to evaluate the effects of a changed growing environment on E. polonica infected Norway spruce seedlings, comparing ambient conditions to predicted temperatures and CO 2 levels in Finland for the years 2030 and 2100. In total, 450 seedlings were randomized amongst the three treatments, with 25 seedlings from each allocated to inoculation with one of five different fungal strains or mock-inoculation. Seedlings were monitored throughout the thermal growing season for mortality, and lesion length and depth indices were measured at the experiment conclusion. Disease severity (mortality and lesions) was consistently greater in fungal-inoculated than mock-inoculated seedlings. However, substantial differences were observed among fungal strains in response to climate scenarios. For example, although overall seedling mortality was highest under the most distant (and severe) climate change expectations, of the two fungal strains with the highest mortality counts (referred to as F4 and F5), one produced greater mortality under the 2030 and 2100 scenarios than ambient conditions, whereas climate scenario had no effect on the other. This study contributes to a limited body of empirical research on the effects of projected climate changes on forestry pathosystems, and is the first to investigate interactions between Norway spruce and E. polonica . The results indicate the potential for future climate changes to alter the impact of forest pathogens with implications for productivity, while highlighting the need for a strain-specific level of understanding of the disease agents.

Warmer and drier conditions and nitrogen fertilizer application altered methanotroph abundance and methane emissions in a vegetable soil.

PubMed

Ran, Yu; Xie, Jianli; Xu, Xiaoya; Li, Yong; Liu, Yapeng; Zhang, Qichun; Li, Zheng; Xu, Jianming; Di, Hongjie

2017-01-01

Methane (CH 4 ) is a potent greenhouse gas, and soil can both be a source and sink for atmospheric CH 4 . It is not clear how future climate change may affect soil CH 4 emissions and related microbial communities. The aim of this study was to determine the interactive effects of a simulated warmer and drier climate scenarios and the application of different nitrogen (N) sources (urea and manure) on CH 4 emissions and related microbial community abundance in a vegetable soil. Greenhouses were used to control simulated climate conditions which gave 2.99 °C warmer and 6.2% lower water content conditions. The field experiment was divided into two phases. At the beginning of phase II, half of the greenhouses were removed to study possible legacy effects of the simulated warmer and drier conditions. The responses in methanogen and methanotroph abundance to a simulated climate change scenario were determined using real-time PCR. The results showed that the simulated warmer and drier conditions in the greenhouses significantly decreased CH 4 emissions largely due to the lower soil moisture content. For the same reason, CH 4 emissions of treatments in phase I were much lower than the same treatments in phase II. The abundance of methanotrophs showed a more significant response than methanogens to the simulated climate change scenario, increasing under simulated drier conditions. Methanogenic community abundance remained low, except where manure was applied which provided a source of organic C that stimulated methanogen growth. Soil moisture content was a major driver for methanotroph abundance and strongly affected CH 4 emissions. The application of N source decreased CH 4 emissions probably because of increased methanotrophic activity. CH 4 emissions were positively correlated to methanogenic abundance and negatively correlated to methanotrophic abundance. These results demonstrate that projected future climate change conditions can have a feedback impact on CH 4 emissions from the soil by altering soil conditions (particularly soil moisture) and related microbial communities.

Temperature is better than precipitation as a predictor of plant community assembly across a dryland region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Butterfield, Bradley J.; Munson, Seth M.

2016-01-01

QuestionHow closely do plant communities track climate? Research suggests that plant species converge toward similar environmental tolerances relative to the environments that they experience. Whether these patterns apply to severe environments or scale up to plant community-level patterns of relative climatic tolerances is poorly understood. Using estimates of species' climatic tolerances acquired from occurrence records, we determined the contributions of individual species' climatic niche breadths and environmental filtering to the relationships between community-average climatic tolerances and the local climates experienced by those communities.LocationSouthwestern United States drylands.MethodsInterspecific variation in niche breadth was assessed as a function of species' climatic optima (median climatic niche value). The relationships between climatic optima and tolerances were used as null expectations for the relationship between abundance-weighted mean climatic tolerances of communities and the local climate of that community. Deviations from this null expectation indicate that species with greater or lesser climatic tolerances are favoured relative to co-occurring species. The intensity of environmental filtering was estimated by comparing the range of climatic tolerances within each community to a null distribution generated from a random assembly algorithm.ResultsThe temperature niches of species were consistently symmetrical and of similar breadths, regardless of their temperature optima. In contrast, precipitation niches were skewed toward wetter conditions, and niche breadth increased with increasing precipitation optima. At the community level, relationships with climate were much stronger for temperature than for precipitation. Furthermore, cold and heat were stronger assembly filters than drought or precipitation, with the intensity of environmental filtering increasing at both ends of climatic gradients. Community-average climatic tolerances did deviate significantly from null expectations, indicating that species with higher or lower relative climatic tolerances were favoured under certain conditions.ConclusionsDespite strong water limitation of plant performance in dryland ecosystems, communities tracked variation in temperature much more closely, intimating strong responses to anticipated temperature increases. Furthermore, abundance distributions were biased toward species with higher or lower relative climatic tolerances under different climatic conditions, but predictably so, indicating the need for assembly models that include processes other than simple environmental filtering.

Signal to noise quantification of regional climate projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, S.; Rupp, D. E.; Mote, P.

2016-12-01

One of the biggest challenges in interpreting climate model outputs for impacts studies and adaptation planning is understanding the sources of disagreement among models (which is often used imperfectly as a stand-in for system uncertainty). Internal variability is a primary source of uncertainty in climate projections, especially for precipitation, for which models disagree about even the sign of changes in large areas like the continental US. Taking advantage of a large initial-condition ensemble of regional climate simulations, this study quantifies the magnitude of changes forced by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations relative to internal variability. Results come from a large initial-condition ensemble of regional climate model simulations generated by weather@home, a citizen science computing platform, where the western United States climate was simulated for the recent past (1985-2014) and future (2030-2059) using a 25-km horizontal resolution regional climate model (HadRM3P) nested in global atmospheric model (HadAM3P). We quantify grid point level signal-to-noise not just in temperature and precipitation responses, but also the energy and moisture flux terms that are related to temperature and precipitation responses, to provide important insights regarding uncertainty in climate change projections at local and regional scales. These results will aid modelers in determining appropriate ensemble sizes for different climate variables and help users of climate model output with interpreting climate model projections.

Projecting malaria hazard from climate change in eastern Africa using large ensembles to estimate uncertainty.

PubMed

Leedale, Joseph; Tompkins, Adrian M; Caminade, Cyril; Jones, Anne E; Nikulin, Grigory; Morse, Andrew P

2016-03-31

The effect of climate change on the spatiotemporal dynamics of malaria transmission is studied using an unprecedented ensemble of climate projections, employing three diverse bias correction and downscaling techniques, in order to partially account for uncertainty in climate- driven malaria projections. These large climate ensembles drive two dynamical and spatially explicit epidemiological malaria models to provide future hazard projections for the focus region of eastern Africa. While the two malaria models produce very distinct transmission patterns for the recent climate, their response to future climate change is similar in terms of sign and spatial distribution, with malaria transmission moving to higher altitudes in the East African Community (EAC) region, while transmission reduces in lowland, marginal transmission zones such as South Sudan. The climate model ensemble generally projects warmer and wetter conditions over EAC. The simulated malaria response appears to be driven by temperature rather than precipitation effects. This reduces the uncertainty due to the climate models, as precipitation trends in tropical regions are very diverse, projecting both drier and wetter conditions with the current state-of-the-art climate model ensemble. The magnitude of the projected changes differed considerably between the two dynamical malaria models, with one much more sensitive to climate change, highlighting that uncertainty in the malaria projections is also associated with the disease modelling approach.

The Moving Target of Climate Mitigation: Examples from the Energy Sector in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarroja, B.; AghaKouchak, A.; Forrest, K.; Chiang, F.; Samuelsen, S.

2016-12-01

In response to the concerns of climate change-induced impacts on human health, environmental integrity, and the secure operation of resource supply infrastructures, strategies to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of major societal sectors have been in development. In the energy sector, these strategies are based in low carbon primary energy deployment, increased energy efficiency, and implementing complementary technologies for operational resilience. While these strategies are aimed at climate mitigation, a degree of climate change-induced impacts will occur by the time of their deployment, and many of these impacts can compromise the effectiveness of these climate mitigation strategies. In order to develop climate mitigation strategies that will achieve their GHG reduction and other goals, the impact that climate change-induced conditions can have on different components of climate mitigation strategies must be understood. This presentation will highlight three examples of how climate change-induced conditions affect components of climate mitigation strategies in California: through impacts on 1) hydropower generation, 2) renewable potential for geothermal and solar thermal resources to form part of the renewable resource portfolio, and 3) the magnitudes and shapes of the electric load demand that must be met sustainably. These studies are part of a larger, overarching project to understand how climate change impacts the energy system and how to develop a sustainable energy infrastructure that is resilient against these impacts.

Pedagogical Conditions of Interethnic Relations Correction in Educational Environment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shibankova, Lyutsia A.; Dolganovskaya, Natalia V.; Ishmuradova, Alfiya M.; Matveeva, Elena S.; Vlasova, Tatiana; Chistyakov, Alexey A.

2016-01-01

The research urgency is conditioned by the strengthening of the role of educational institutions in the process of interaction between representatives of different cultures and religions, by the creation of favorable socio-psychological climate. Within the study of the educational environment, the authors identify its properties, conditioning the…

Boundary Condition Effects on Hillslope Form and Soil Development Along a Climatic Gradient From Semiarid to Hyperarid in Northern Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Owen, J. J.; Dietrich, W. E.; Nishiizumi, K.; Bellugi, D.; Amundson, R.

2008-12-01

Modeling the development of hillslopes using mass balance equations has generated many testable hypotheses related to morphology, process rates, and soil properties, however it is only relatively recently that techniques for constraining these models (such as cosmogenic radionuclides) have become commonplace. As such, many hypotheses related to the effects of boundary conditions or climate on process rates and soil properties have been left untested. We selected pairs of hillslopes along a precipitation gradient in northern Chile (24°-30° S) which were either bounded by actively eroding (bedrock-bedded) channels or by stable or aggradational landforms (pediments, colluvial aprons, valley bottoms). For each hillslope we measured soil properties, atmospheric deposition rates, and bedrock denudation rates. We observe significant changes in soil properties with climate: there is a shift from thick, weathered soils in the semiarid south, to the near absence of soil in the arid middle, to salt-rich soils in the hyperarid north. Coincident with these are dramatic changes in the types and rates of processes acting on the soils. We found relatively quick, biotically-driven soil formation and transport in the south, and very slow, salt-driven processes in the north. Additionally, we observe systematic differences between hillslopes of different boundary condition within the same climate zone, such as thicker soils, gentler slopes, and slower erosion rates on hillslopes with a non-eroding boundary versus an eroding boundary. These support general predictions based on hillslope soil mass balance equations and geomorphic transport laws. Using parameters derived from our field data, we attempt to use a mass balance model of hillslope development to explore the effect of changing boundary conditions and/or shifting climate.

Climate change and spring frost damages for sweet cherries in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chmielewski, Frank-M.; Götz, Klaus-P.; Weber, Katharina C.; Moryson, Susanne

2018-02-01

Spring frost can be a limiting factor in sweet cherry ( Prunus avium L.) production. Rising temperatures in spring force the development of buds, whereby their vulnerability to freezing temperatures continuously increases. With the beginning of blossom, flowers can resist only light frosts without any significant damage. In this study, we investigated the risk of spring frost damages during cherry blossom for historical and future climate conditions at two different sites in NE (Berlin) and SW Germany (Geisenheim). Two phenological models, developed on the basis of phenological observations at the experimental sweet cherry orchard in Berlin-Dahlem and validated for endodormancy release and for warmer climate conditions (already published), were used to calculate the beginning of cherry blossom in Geisenheim, 1951-2015 (external model validation). Afterwards, on the basis of a statistical regionalisation model WETTREG (RCP 8.5), the frequency of frost during cherry blossom was calculated at both sites for historical (1971-2000) and future climate conditions (2011-2100). From these data, we derived the final flower damage, defined as the percentage of frozen flowers due to single or multiple frost events during blossom. The results showed that rising temperatures in this century can premature the beginning of cherry blossom up to 17 days at both sites, independent of the used phenological model. The frequency and strength of frost was characterised by a high temporal and local variability. For both sites, no significant increase in frost frequency and frost damage during blossom was found. In Geisenheim, frost damages significantly decreased from the middle of the twenty-first century. This study additionally emphasises the importance of reliable phenological models which not only work for current but also for changed climate conditions and at different sites. The date of endodormancy release should always be a known parameter in chilling/forcing models.

Estimating switchgrass productivity in the Great Plains using satellite vegetation index and site environmental variables

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gu, Yingxin; Wylie, Bruce K.; Howard, Daniel M.

2015-01-01

Switchgrass is being evaluated as a potential feedstock source for cellulosic biofuels and is being cultivated in several regions of the United States. The recent availability of switchgrass land cover maps derived from the National Agricultural Statistics Service cropland data layer for the conterminous United States provides an opportunity to assess the environmental conditions of switchgrass over large areas and across different geographic locations. The main goal of this study is to develop a data-driven multiple regression switchgrass productivity model and identify the optimal climate and environment conditions for the highly productive switchgrass in the Great Plains (GP). Environmental and climate variables used in the study include elevation, soil organic carbon, available water capacity, climate, and seasonal weather. Satellite-derived growing season averaged Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (GSN) was used as a proxy for switchgrass productivity. Multiple regression analyses indicate that there are strong correlations between site environmental variables and switchgrass productivity (r = 0.95). Sufficient precipitation and suitable temperature during the growing season (i.e., not too hot or too cold) are favorable for switchgrass growth. Elevation and soil characteristics (e.g., soil available water capacity) are also an important factor impacting switchgrass productivity. An anticipated switchgrass biomass productivity map for the entire GP based on site environmental and climate conditions and switchgrass productivity model was generated. Highly productive switchgrass areas are mainly located in the eastern part of the GP. Results from this study can help land managers and biofuel plant investors better understand the general environmental and climate conditions influencing switchgrass growth and make optimal land use decisions regarding switchgrass development in the GP.

Climate change and spring frost damages for sweet cherries in Germany.

PubMed

Chmielewski, Frank-M; Götz, Klaus-P; Weber, Katharina C; Moryson, Susanne

2018-02-01

Spring frost can be a limiting factor in sweet cherry (Prunus avium L.) production. Rising temperatures in spring force the development of buds, whereby their vulnerability to freezing temperatures continuously increases. With the beginning of blossom, flowers can resist only light frosts without any significant damage. In this study, we investigated the risk of spring frost damages during cherry blossom for historical and future climate conditions at two different sites in NE (Berlin) and SW Germany (Geisenheim). Two phenological models, developed on the basis of phenological observations at the experimental sweet cherry orchard in Berlin-Dahlem and validated for endodormancy release and for warmer climate conditions (already published), were used to calculate the beginning of cherry blossom in Geisenheim, 1951-2015 (external model validation). Afterwards, on the basis of a statistical regionalisation model WETTREG (RCP 8.5), the frequency of frost during cherry blossom was calculated at both sites for historical (1971-2000) and future climate conditions (2011-2100). From these data, we derived the final flower damage, defined as the percentage of frozen flowers due to single or multiple frost events during blossom. The results showed that rising temperatures in this century can premature the beginning of cherry blossom up to 17 days at both sites, independent of the used phenological model. The frequency and strength of frost was characterised by a high temporal and local variability. For both sites, no significant increase in frost frequency and frost damage during blossom was found. In Geisenheim, frost damages significantly decreased from the middle of the twenty-first century. This study additionally emphasises the importance of reliable phenological models which not only work for current but also for changed climate conditions and at different sites. The date of endodormancy release should always be a known parameter in chilling/forcing models.

Options for national parks and reserves for adapting to climate change.

PubMed

Baron, Jill S; Gunderson, Lance; Allen, Craig D; Fleishman, Erica; McKenzie, Donald; Meyerson, Laura A; Oropeza, Jill; Stephenson, Nate

2009-12-01

Past and present climate has shaped the valued ecosystems currently protected in parks and reserves, but future climate change will redefine these conditions. Continued conservation as climate changes will require thinking differently about resource management than we have in the past; we present some logical steps and tools for doing so. Three critical tenets underpin future management plans and activities: (1) climate patterns of the past will not be the climate patterns of the future; (2) climate defines the environment and influences future trajectories of the distributions of species and their habitats; (3) specific management actions may help increase the resilience of some natural resources, but fundamental changes in species and their environment may be inevitable. Science-based management will be necessary because past experience may not serve as a guide for novel future conditions. Identifying resources and processes at risk, defining thresholds and reference conditions, and establishing monitoring and assessment programs are among the types of scientific practices needed to support a broadened portfolio of management activities. In addition to the control and hedging management strategies commonly in use today, we recommend adaptive management wherever possible. Adaptive management increases our ability to address the multiple scales at which species and processes function, and increases the speed of knowledge transfer among scientists and managers. Scenario planning provides a broad forward-thinking framework from which the most appropriate management tools can be chosen. The scope of climate change effects will require a shared vision among regional partners. Preparing for and adapting to climate change is as much a cultural and intellectual challenge as an ecological challenge.

Options for national parks and reserves for adapting to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baron, Jill S.; Gunderson, Lance; Allen, Craig D.; Fleishman, Erica; McKenzie, Donald; Meyerson, Laura A.; Oropeza, Jill; Stephenson, Nathan L.

2009-01-01

Past and present climate has shaped the valued ecosystems currently protected in parks and reserves, but future climate change will redefine these conditions. Continued conservation as climate changes will require thinking differently about resource management than we have in the past; we present some logical steps and tools for doing so. Three critical tenets underpin future management plans and activities: (1) climate patterns of the past will not be the climate patterns of the future; (2) climate defines the environment and influences future trajectories of the distributions of species and their habitats; (3) specific management actions may help increase the resilience of some natural resources, but fundamental changes in species and their environment may be inevitable. Science-based management will be necessary because past experience may not serve as a guide for novel future conditions. Identifying resources and processes at risk, defining thresholds and reference conditions, and establishing monitoring and assessment programs are among the types of scientific practices needed to support a broadened portfolio of management activities. In addition to the control and hedging management strategies commonly in use today, we recommend adaptive management wherever possible. Adaptive management increases our ability to address the multiple scales at which species and processes function, and increases the speed of knowledge transfer among scientists and managers. Scenario planning provides a broad forward-thinking framework from which the most appropriate management tools can be chosen. The scope of climate change effects will require a shared vision among regional partners. Preparing for and adapting to climate change is as much a cultural and intellectual challenge as an ecological challenge.

Using Climate Change Information in Large Scale Coastal Planning: Louisiana's 2017 Coastal Master Plan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reed, D.

2017-12-01

The Louisiana coast has suffered severe land loss in recent decades as human activities have exacerbated the effects of natural stressors leading to catastrophic land loss and increased flood threats to coastal communities. Planning for the future requires a recognition of climate change but also leads to the challenge of understanding how different plausible future conditions influence the outcomes of restoration and protection actions. In coastal Louisiana, the $50 billion Coastal master Plan is legislatively required to be revisited every 5 years in order to ensure that plans for the future continue to be based on the best available, but constantly evolving, scientific information. For the 2017 iteration of the Coastal Master Plan, identification of the environmental scenarios to be explored began in 2014 and included both professional judgment regarding the most important drivers of future change, as well as climate change information derived during the National Climate Assessment. The number of scenarios to be explored was limited by both available resources and the need to make the findings accessible to stakeholders and policy makers. Plausible ranges were identified for key drivers of coastal landscape change, including climatic factors such as eustatic sea-level, precipitation and evapotranspiration. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to explore how the coastal landscape changed in response to combinations of values, allowed agency personnel to select three scenarios against which to test the effectiveness of different restoration and protection actions. The 2017 Coastal Master Plan was then developed by exploring the response of different actions to the scenarios, and how project costs also varied depending on future conditions. Such consideration of climate change in coastal planning at the state scale is facilitated by the availability of scientifically valid information on climate change, that has already been reviewed and sourced.

Will climate change increase irrigation requirements in agriculture of Central Europe? A simulation study for Northern Germany.

PubMed

Riediger, Jan; Breckling, Broder; Nuske, Robert S; Schröder, Winfried

2014-01-01

By example of a region in Northern Germany (County of Uelzen), this study investigates whether climate change is likely to require adaption of agricultural practices such as irrigation in Central Europe. Due to sandy soils with low water retention capacity and occasional insufficient rainfall, irrigation is a basic condition for agricultural production in the county of Uelzen. Thus, in the framework of the comprehensive research cluster Nachhaltiges Landmanagement im Norddeutschen Tiefland ( NaLaMa-nT ), we investigated whether irrigation might need to be adapted to changing climatic conditions. To this end, results from regionalised climate change modelling were coupled with soil- and crop-specific evapotranspiration models to calculate potential amounts of irrigation to prevent crop failures. Three different runs of the climate change scenario RCP 8.5 were used for the time period until 2070. The results show that the extent of probable necessary irrigation will likely increase in the future. For the scenario run with the highest temperature rise, the results suggest that the amount of ground water presently allowed to be extracted for irrigation might not be sufficient in the future to retain common agricultural pattern. The investigation at hand exemplifies data requirements and methods to estimate irrigation needs under climate change conditions. Restriction of ground water withdrawal by German environmental regulation may require an adaptation of crop selection and alterations in agricultural practice also in regions with comparable conditions.

Climate change and evolving human diversity in Europe during the last glacial.

PubMed Central

Gamble, Clive; Davies, William; Pettitt, Paul; Richards, Martin

2004-01-01

A link between climate change and human evolution during the Pleistocene has often been assumed but rarely tested. At the macro-evolutionary level Foley showed for hominids that extinction, rather than speciation, correlates with environmental change as recorded in the deep sea record. Our aim is to examine this finding at a smaller scale and with high-resolution environmental and archaeological archives. Our interest is in changing patterns of human dispersal under shifting Pleistocene climates during the last glacial period in Europe. Selecting this time frame and region allows us to observe how two hominid taxa, Neanderthals and Crô-Magnons, adapted to climatic conditions during oxygen isotope stage 3. These taxa are representative of two hominid adaptive radiations, termed terrestrial and aquatic, which exhibited different habitat preferences but similar tolerances to climatic factors. Their response to changing ecological conditions was predicated upon their ability to extend their societies in space and time. We examine this difference further using a database of all available radiocarbon determinations from western Europe in the late glacial. These data act as proxies for population history, and in particular the expansion and contraction of regional populations as climate changed rapidly. Independent assessment of these processes is obtained from the genetic history of Europeans. The results indicate that climate affects population contraction rather than expansion. We discuss the consequences for genetic and cultural diversity which led to the legacy of the Ice Age: a single hominid species, globally distributed. PMID:15101580

Potential distribution of pine wilt disease under future climate change scenarios

PubMed Central

Nakamura, Katsunori; Nakao, Katsuhiro; Kominami, Yuji; Tanaka, Nobuyuki; Ohashi, Haruka; Takano, Kohei Takenaka; Takeuchi, Wataru; Matsui, Tetsuya

2017-01-01

Pine wilt disease (PWD) constitutes a serious threat to pine forests. Since development depends on temperature and drought, there is a concern that future climate change could lead to the spread of PWD infections. We evaluated the risk of PWD in 21 susceptible Pinus species on a global scale. The MB index, which represents the sum of the difference between the mean monthly temperature and 15 when the mean monthly temperatures exceeds 15°C, was used to determine current and future regions vulnerable to PWD (MB ≥ 22). For future climate conditions, we compared the difference in PWD risks among four different representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) and two time periods (2050s and 2070s). We also evaluated the impact of climate change on habitat suitability for each Pinus species using species distribution models. The findings were then integrated and the potential risk of PWD spread under climate change was discussed. Within the natural Pinus distribution area, southern parts of North America, Europe, and Asia were categorized as vulnerable regions (MB ≥ 22; 16% of the total Pinus distribution area). Representative provinces in which PWD has been reported at least once overlapped with the vulnerable regions. All RCP scenarios showed expansion of vulnerable regions in northern parts of Europe, Asia, and North America under future climate conditions. By the 2070s, under RCP 8.5, an estimated increase in the area of vulnerable regions to approximately 50% of the total Pinus distribution area was revealed. In addition, the habitat conditions of a large portion of the Pinus distribution areas in Europe and Asia were deemed unsuitable by the 2070s under RCP 8.5. Approximately 40% of these regions overlapped with regions deemed vulnerable to PWD, suggesting that Pinus forests in these areas are at risk of serious damage due to habitat shifts and spread of PWD. PMID:28797067

Potential distribution of pine wilt disease under future climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Hirata, Akiko; Nakamura, Katsunori; Nakao, Katsuhiro; Kominami, Yuji; Tanaka, Nobuyuki; Ohashi, Haruka; Takano, Kohei Takenaka; Takeuchi, Wataru; Matsui, Tetsuya

2017-01-01

Pine wilt disease (PWD) constitutes a serious threat to pine forests. Since development depends on temperature and drought, there is a concern that future climate change could lead to the spread of PWD infections. We evaluated the risk of PWD in 21 susceptible Pinus species on a global scale. The MB index, which represents the sum of the difference between the mean monthly temperature and 15 when the mean monthly temperatures exceeds 15°C, was used to determine current and future regions vulnerable to PWD (MB ≥ 22). For future climate conditions, we compared the difference in PWD risks among four different representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) and two time periods (2050s and 2070s). We also evaluated the impact of climate change on habitat suitability for each Pinus species using species distribution models. The findings were then integrated and the potential risk of PWD spread under climate change was discussed. Within the natural Pinus distribution area, southern parts of North America, Europe, and Asia were categorized as vulnerable regions (MB ≥ 22; 16% of the total Pinus distribution area). Representative provinces in which PWD has been reported at least once overlapped with the vulnerable regions. All RCP scenarios showed expansion of vulnerable regions in northern parts of Europe, Asia, and North America under future climate conditions. By the 2070s, under RCP 8.5, an estimated increase in the area of vulnerable regions to approximately 50% of the total Pinus distribution area was revealed. In addition, the habitat conditions of a large portion of the Pinus distribution areas in Europe and Asia were deemed unsuitable by the 2070s under RCP 8.5. Approximately 40% of these regions overlapped with regions deemed vulnerable to PWD, suggesting that Pinus forests in these areas are at risk of serious damage due to habitat shifts and spread of PWD.

Why were Past North Atlantic Warming Conditions Associated with Drier Climate in the Western United States?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, C. I.; Potter, G. L.; Montanez, I. P.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Behling, P.; Oster, J. L.

2014-12-01

Investigating climate dynamics governing rainfall over the western US during past warmings and coolings of the last glacial and deglaciation is pertinent to understanding how precipitation patterns might change with future global warming, especially as the processes driving the global hydrological reorganization affecting this drought-prone region during these rapid temperature changes remain unresolved. We present model climates of the Bølling warm event (14,500 years ago) and Younger Dryas cool event (12,200 years ago) that i) uniquely enable the assessment of dueling hypothesis about the atmospheric teleconnections responsible for abrupt temperature shifts in the North Atlantic region to variations in moisture conditions across the western US, and ii) show that existing hypotheses about these teleconnections are unsupported. Modeling results show no evidence for a north-south shift of the Pacific winter storm track, and we argue that a tropical moisture source with evolving trajectory cannot explain alternation between wet/dry conditions, which have been reconstructed from the proxy record. Alternatively, model results support a new hypothesis that variations in the intensity of the winter storm track, corresponding to its expansion/contraction, can account for regional moisture differences between warm and cool intervals of the last deglaciation. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the mechanism forcing the teleconnection between the North Atlantic and western US is the same across different boundary conditions. In our simulation, during the last deglaciation, and in simulations of future warming, perturbation of the Rossby wave structure reconfigures the atmospheric state. This reconfiguration affects the Aleutian Low and high-pressure ridge over and off of the northern North American coastline driving variability in the storm track. Similarity between the processes governing the climate response during these distinct time intervals illustrates the robust nature of the teleconnection, a novel result that provides context for understanding the climate processes governing the response of moisture variability to future climate change.

Evaluation of Probable Maximum Precipitation and Flood under Climate Change in the 21st Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gangrade, S.; Kao, S. C.; Rastogi, D.; Ashfaq, M.; Naz, B. S.; Kabela, E.; Anantharaj, V. G.; Singh, N.; Preston, B. L.; Mei, R.

2016-12-01

Critical infrastructures are potentially vulnerable to extreme hydro-climatic events. Under a warming environment, the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation and flood are likely to increase enhancing the needs to more accurately quantify the risks due to climate change. In this study, we utilized an integrated modeling framework that includes the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model and a high resolution distributed hydrology soil vegetation model (DHSVM) to simulate probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and flood (PMF) events over Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin. A total of 120 storms were selected to simulate moisture maximized PMP under different meteorological forcings, including historical storms driven by Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and baseline (1981-2010), near term future (2021-2050) and long term future (2071-2100) storms driven by Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) under Representative Concentrations Pathway 8.5 emission scenario. We also analyzed the sensitivity of PMF to various antecedent hydrologic conditions such as initial soil moisture conditions and tested different compulsive approaches. Overall, a statistical significant increase is projected for future PMP and PMF, mainly attributed to the increase of background air temperature. The ensemble of simulated PMP and PMF along with their sensitivity allows us to better quantify the potential risks associated with hydro-climatic extreme events on critical energy-water infrastructures such as major hydropower dams and nuclear power plants.

Ecological constraints increase the climatic debt in forests

PubMed Central

Bertrand, Romain; Riofrío-Dillon, Gabriela; Lenoir, Jonathan; Drapier, Jacques; de Ruffray, Patrice; Gégout, Jean-Claude; Loreau, Michel

2016-01-01

Biodiversity changes are lagging behind current climate warming. The underlying determinants of this climatic debt are unknown and yet critical to understand the impacts of climate change on the present biota and improve forecasts of biodiversity changes. Here we assess determinants of climatic debt accumulated in French forest herbaceous plant communities between 1987 and 2008 (that is, a 1.05 °C mean difference between the observed and bioindicated temperatures). We show that warmer baseline conditions predispose plant communities to larger climatic debts, and that climate warming exacerbates this response. Forest plant communities, however, are absorbing part of the temperature increase mainly through the species' ability to tolerate changing climate. As climate warming is expected to accelerate during the twenty-first century, plant migration and tolerance to climatic stresses probably will be insufficient to absorb this impact posing threats to the sustainability of forest plant communities. PMID:27561410

The Milankovitch theory and climate sensitivity. I - Equilibrium climate model solutions for the present surface conditions. II - Interaction between the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and the climate system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neeman, Binyamin U.; Ohring, George; Joseph, Joachim H.

1988-01-01

A seasonal climate model was developed to test the climate sensitivity and, in particular, the Milankovitch (1941) theory. Four climate model versions were implemented to investigate the range of uncertainty in the parameterizations of three basic feedback mechanisms: the ice albedo-temperature, the outgoing long-wave radiation-temperature, and the eddy transport-meridional temperature gradient. It was found that the differences between the simulation of the present climate by the four versions were generally small, especially for annually averaged results. The climate model was also used to study the effect of growing/shrinking of a continental ice sheet, bedrock sinking/uplifting, and sea level changes on the climate system, taking also into account the feedback effects on the climate of the building of the ice caps.

Ecological constraints increase the climatic debt in forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertrand, Romain; Riofrío-Dillon, Gabriela; Lenoir, Jonathan; Drapier, Jacques; de Ruffray, Patrice; Gégout, Jean-Claude; Loreau, Michel

2016-08-01

Biodiversity changes are lagging behind current climate warming. The underlying determinants of this climatic debt are unknown and yet critical to understand the impacts of climate change on the present biota and improve forecasts of biodiversity changes. Here we assess determinants of climatic debt accumulated in French forest herbaceous plant communities between 1987 and 2008 (that is, a 1.05 °C mean difference between the observed and bioindicated temperatures). We show that warmer baseline conditions predispose plant communities to larger climatic debts, and that climate warming exacerbates this response. Forest plant communities, however, are absorbing part of the temperature increase mainly through the species' ability to tolerate changing climate. As climate warming is expected to accelerate during the twenty-first century, plant migration and tolerance to climatic stresses probably will be insufficient to absorb this impact posing threats to the sustainability of forest plant communities.

The evaluation of the climate change effects on maize and fennel cultivation by means of an hydrological physically based model: the case study of an irrigated district of southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonfante, A.; Alfieri, M. S.; Basile, A.; De Lorenzi, F.; Fiorentino, N.; Menenti, M.

2012-04-01

The effect of climate change on irrigated agricultural systems will be different from area to area depending on some factors as: (i) water availability, (ii) crop water demand (iii) soil hydrological behavior and (iv) irrigation management strategy. The adaptation of irrigated crop systems to future climate change can be supported by physically based model which simulate the water and heat fluxes in the soil-vegetation-atmosphere system. The aim of this work is to evaluate the effects of climate change on the heat and water balance of a maize-fennel rotation. This was applied to a on-demand irrigation district of Southern Italy ("Destra Sele", Campania Region, 22.645 ha). Two climate scenarios were considered, current climate (1961-1990) and future climate (2021-2050), the latter constructed by applying statistical downscaling to GCMs scenarios. For each climate scenario the soil moisture regime of the selected study area was calculated by means of a simulation model of the soil-water-atmosphere system (SWAP). Synthetic indicators of the soil water regimes (e.g., crop water stress index - CWSI, available water content) have been calculated and impacts evaluated taking into account the yield response functions to water availability of different cultivars. Different irrigation delivering strategies were also simulated. The hydrological model SWAP was applied to the representative soils of the whole area (20 soil units) for which the soil hydraulic properties were derived by means of pedo-transfer function (HYPRES) tested and validated on the typical soils in the study area. Upper boundary conditions were derived from two climate scenarios, i.e. current and future. Unit gradient in soil water potential was set as lower boundary condition. Crop-specific input data and model parameters were derived from field experiments, in the same area, where the SWAP model was calibrated and validated. The results obtained have shown a significant increase of CWSI in the future climate scenario, and some spatial patterns strongly influenced by the soils characteristics. Adaptability of different maize cultivars has been evaluated. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008) Keywords: Plant Adaptative capacity, SWAP, Climate changes, Maize, Fennel

Towards a Global Water Scarcity Risk Assessment Framework: Incorporation of Probability Distributions and Hydro-Climatic Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

2016-01-01

Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions increasingly put pressure on fresh water resources and are expected to aggravate water scarcity conditions towards the future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based water scarcity assessments, a global-scale framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist. This study provides a first step towards such a risk based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change and population growth scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk, expressed in terms of expected annual exposed population, increases given all future scenarios, up to greater than 56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels.

Climate downscaling effects on predictive ecological models: a case study for threatened and endangered vertebrates in the southeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bucklin, David N.; Watling, James I.; Speroterra, Carolina; Brandt, Laura A.; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Romañach, Stephanie S.

2013-01-01

High-resolution (downscaled) projections of future climate conditions are critical inputs to a wide variety of ecological and socioeconomic models and are created using numerous different approaches. Here, we conduct a sensitivity analysis of spatial predictions from climate envelope models for threatened and endangered vertebrates in the southeastern United States to determine whether two different downscaling approaches (with and without the use of a regional climate model) affect climate envelope model predictions when all other sources of variation are held constant. We found that prediction maps differed spatially between downscaling approaches and that the variation attributable to downscaling technique was comparable to variation between maps generated using different general circulation models (GCMs). Precipitation variables tended to show greater discrepancies between downscaling techniques than temperature variables, and for one GCM, there was evidence that more poorly resolved precipitation variables contributed relatively more to model uncertainty than more well-resolved variables. Our work suggests that ecological modelers requiring high-resolution climate projections should carefully consider the type of downscaling applied to the climate projections prior to their use in predictive ecological modeling. The uncertainty associated with alternative downscaling methods may rival that of other, more widely appreciated sources of variation, such as the general circulation model or emissions scenario with which future climate projections are created.

Climatic variability effects on summer cropping systems of the Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capa-Morocho, M.; Rodríguez-Fonseca, B.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.

2012-04-01

Climate variability and changes in the frequency of extremes events have a direct impact on crop yield and damages. Climate anomalies projections at monthly and yearly timescale allows us for adapting a cropping system (crops, varieties and management) to take advantage of favorable conditions or reduce the effect of adverse conditions. The objective of this work is to develop indices to evaluate the effect of climatic variability in summer cropping systems of Iberian Peninsula, in an attempt of relating yield variability to climate variability, extending the work of Rodríguez-Puebla (2004). This paper analyses the evolution of the yield anomalies of irrigated maize in several representative agricultural locations in Spain with contrasting temperature and precipitation regimes and compare it to the evolution of different patterns of climate variability, extending the methodology of Porter and Semenov (2005). To simulate maize yields observed daily data of radiation, maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation were used. These data were obtained from the State Meteorological Agency of Spain (AEMET). Time series of simulated maize yields were computed with CERES-maize model for periods ranging from 22 to 49 years, depending on the observed climate data available for each location. The computed standardized anomalies yields were projected on different oceanic and atmospheric anomalous fields and the resulting patterns were compared with a set of documented patterns from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The results can be useful also for climate change impact assessment, providing a scientific basis for selection of climate change scenarios where combined natural and forced variability represent a hazard for agricultural production. Interpretation of impact projections would also be enhanced.

Variation in White Stork ( Ciconia ciconia) diet along a climatic gradient and across rural-to-urban landscapes in North Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chenchouni, Haroun

2017-03-01

Assessing diet composition of White Storks ( Ciconia ciconia) breeding under North African conditions provides key information to understanding its trophic niche for conservation purpose. Since, climate controls productivities of foraging habitats and thus food availability for predators, this study examines how Storks' diet parameters varied following a climate gradient along with rural-to-urban landscapes in north-eastern Algeria. Feeding strategies to cope with severe conditions were discussed in light of climate aridity and urbanization and how these influence reproduction, population dynamics and distribution. While invertebrate prey accounted for 94 % of ingested individuals, the biomass intake was dominated by chicken remains scavenged from rubbish dumps (67 %) and small mammals (14 %). Generalized linear models revealed that prey numbers varied significantly between climatic regions and landscapes types, but no significant differences were observed for other dietary parameters, including prey biomass. The study showed high dietary similarity between study climates and landscapes, mainly among rural and urban colonies located in semi-arid and sub-humid areas, which differed from those in suburban and arid climate. Rarefaction and extrapolation curves indicated that prey species richness in White Stork diets was expected to be higher in urban colonies located in sub-humid climate. Despite low prey species diversity in arid regions, the White Stork demonstrates a broad trophic niche, which could be due to supplementary feeding from human refuse. This study suggests that regardless of the climate or landscape, White Storks ensure a constant food intake, despite prey biomass fluctuations, by adapting their diet. Foraging in diverse habitats, including trash dumps, ensures a sufficiently balanced diet to meet nutritional requirements.

Climate Change Impacts on Migration in the Vulnerable Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, Nazan; Incealtin, Gamze; Kurnaz, M. Levent; Şengün Ucal, Meltem

2014-05-01

This work focuses on the economic, demographic and environmental drivers of migration related with the sustainable development in underdeveloped and developed countries, which are the most vulnerable to the climate change impacts through the Climate-Development Modeling including climate modeling and panel logit data analysis. We have studied some countries namely Bangladesh, Netherlands, Morocco, Malaysia, Ethiopia and Bolivia. We have analyzed these countries according to their economic, demographic and environmental indicators related with the determinants of migration, and we tried to indicate that their conditions differ according to all these factors concerning with the climate change impacts. This modeling covers some explanatory variables, which have the relationship with the migration, including GDP per capita, population, temperature and precipitation, which indicate the seasonal differences according to the years, the occurrence of natural hazards over the years, coastal location of countries, permanent cropland areas and fish capture which represents the amount of capturing over the years. We analyzed that whether there is a relationship between the migration and these explanatory variables. In order to achieve sustainable development by preventing or decreasing environmental migration due to climate change impacts or related other factors, these countries need to maintain economic, social, political, demographic, and in particular environmental performance. There are some significant risks stemming from climate change, which is not under control. When the economic and environmental conditions are considered, we have to regard climate change to be the more destructive force for those who are less defensible against all of these risks and impacts of uncontrolled climate change. This work was supported by the BU Research Fund under the project number 6990. One of the authors (MLK) was partially supported by Mercator-IPC Fellowship Program.

Variation in White Stork (Ciconia ciconia) diet along a climatic gradient and across rural-to-urban landscapes in North Africa.

PubMed

Chenchouni, Haroun

2017-03-01

Assessing diet composition of White Storks (Ciconia ciconia) breeding under North African conditions provides key information to understanding its trophic niche for conservation purpose. Since, climate controls productivities of foraging habitats and thus food availability for predators, this study examines how Storks' diet parameters varied following a climate gradient along with rural-to-urban landscapes in north-eastern Algeria. Feeding strategies to cope with severe conditions were discussed in light of climate aridity and urbanization and how these influence reproduction, population dynamics and distribution. While invertebrate prey accounted for 94 % of ingested individuals, the biomass intake was dominated by chicken remains scavenged from rubbish dumps (67 %) and small mammals (14 %). Generalized linear models revealed that prey numbers varied significantly between climatic regions and landscapes types, but no significant differences were observed for other dietary parameters, including prey biomass. The study showed high dietary similarity between study climates and landscapes, mainly among rural and urban colonies located in semi-arid and sub-humid areas, which differed from those in suburban and arid climate. Rarefaction and extrapolation curves indicated that prey species richness in White Stork diets was expected to be higher in urban colonies located in sub-humid climate. Despite low prey species diversity in arid regions, the White Stork demonstrates a broad trophic niche, which could be due to supplementary feeding from human refuse. This study suggests that regardless of the climate or landscape, White Storks ensure a constant food intake, despite prey biomass fluctuations, by adapting their diet. Foraging in diverse habitats, including trash dumps, ensures a sufficiently balanced diet to meet nutritional requirements.

Co-occurrence of viruses and mosquitoes at the vectors' optimal climate range: An underestimated risk to temperate regions?

PubMed

Blagrove, Marcus S C; Caminade, Cyril; Waldmann, Elisabeth; Sutton, Elizabeth R; Wardeh, Maya; Baylis, Matthew

2017-06-01

Mosquito-borne viruses have been estimated to cause over 100 million cases of human disease annually. Many methodologies have been developed to help identify areas most at risk from transmission of these viruses. However, generally, these methodologies focus predominantly on the effects of climate on either the vectors or the pathogens they spread, and do not consider the dynamic interaction between the optimal conditions for both vector and virus. Here, we use a new approach that considers the complex interplay between the optimal temperature for virus transmission, and the optimal climate for the mosquito vectors. Using published geolocated data we identified temperature and rainfall ranges in which a number of mosquito vectors have been observed to co-occur with West Nile virus, dengue virus or chikungunya virus. We then investigated whether the optimal climate for co-occurrence of vector and virus varies between "warmer" and "cooler" adapted vectors for the same virus. We found that different mosquito vectors co-occur with the same virus at different temperatures, despite significant overlap in vector temperature ranges. Specifically, we found that co-occurrence correlates with the optimal climatic conditions for the respective vector; cooler-adapted mosquitoes tend to co-occur with the same virus in cooler conditions than their warmer-adapted counterparts. We conclude that mosquitoes appear to be most able to transmit virus in the mosquitoes' optimal climate range, and hypothesise that this may be due to proportionally over-extended vector longevity, and other increased fitness attributes, within this optimal range. These results suggest that the threat posed by vector-competent mosquito species indigenous to temperate regions may have been underestimated, whilst the threat arising from invasive tropical vectors moving to cooler temperate regions may be overestimated.

Relationships among hygiene indicators in take-away foodservice establishments and the impact of climatic conditions.

PubMed

Djekic, I; Kuzmanović, J; Anđelković, A; Saračević, M; Stojanović, M M; Tomašević, I

2016-09-01

This paper examined the relationships among hygiene indicators in take-away foodservice establishments and the impact of climatic conditions. A total of 7545 samples were collected encompassing 2050 from food handlers' (HF) hands, 3991 from stainless steel food contact surfaces (FCS) and 1504 samples from plastic FCS. The study covered a period of 43 months. Hygiene-indicator bacteria (total plate count, Enterobacteriaceae Staphylococcus) were determined from the samples collected from 559 different take-away establishments. Climatic conditions were evaluated in respect to the outside temperature, pressure, humidity and precipitation. Logistic regression confirmed that the presence of precipitation was associated with an increased likelihood of exhibiting both Enterobacteriaceae and Staphylococcus on HF' hands as well as exhibiting Enterobacteriaceae on both types of FCS. Numerable Enterobacteriaceae and Staphylococcus levels on HF' hands were detected when higher outside temperatures and higher precipitations occurred. Higher outside temperatures were observed when Enterobacteriaceae were detected on both plastics (P < 0·05) and stainless steel (P > 0·05). Higher precipitation was observed when Enterobacteriaceae was detected on stainless steel while in contrast, this indicator was detected on plastics in periods with lower precipitation. This research confirms relationships between hygiene indicators in take-aways and climatic conditions, mostly temperature and precipitation. This study provides another perspective into the possible nature of cross-contamination and foodborne outbreaks originating in foodservice establishments and brings to attention the necessity of analysing various climatic conditions. © 2016 The Society for Applied Microbiology.

Using synoptic weather types to predict visitor attendance at Atlanta and Indianapolis zoological parks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perkins, David R.

2018-01-01

Defining an ideal "tourism climate" has been an often-visited research topic where explanations have evolved from global- to location-specific indices tailored to tourists' recreational behavior. Unfortunately, as indices become increasingly specific, they are less translatable across geographies because they may only apply to specific activities, locales, climates, or populations. A key need in the future development of weather and climate indices for tourism has been a translatable, meteorologically based index capturing the generalized ambient atmospheric conditions yet considering local climatology. To address this need, this paper tests the applicability of the spatial synoptic classification (SSC) as a tool to predict visitor attendance response in the tourism, recreation, and leisure (TRL) sector across different climate regimes. Daily attendance data is paired with the prevailing synoptic weather condition at Atlanta and Indianapolis zoological parks from September 2001 to June 2011, to review potential impacts ambient atmospheric conditions may have on visitor attendances. Results indicate that "dry moderate" conditions are most associated with high levels of attendance and "moist polar" synoptic conditions are most associated with low levels of attendance at both zoological parks. Comparing visitor response at these zoo locations, visitors in Indianapolis showed lower levels of tolerance to synoptic conditions which were not "ideal." Visitors in Indianapolis also displayed more aversion to "polar" synoptic regimes while visitors in Atlanta displayed more tolerance to "moist tropical" synoptic regimes. Using a comprehensive atmospheric measure such as the SSC may be a key to broadening application when assessing tourism climates across diverse geographies.

Using synoptic weather types to predict visitor attendance at Atlanta and Indianapolis zoological parks.

PubMed

Perkins, David R

2018-01-01

Defining an ideal "tourism climate" has been an often-visited research topic where explanations have evolved from global- to location-specific indices tailored to tourists' recreational behavior. Unfortunately, as indices become increasingly specific, they are less translatable across geographies because they may only apply to specific activities, locales, climates, or populations. A key need in the future development of weather and climate indices for tourism has been a translatable, meteorologically based index capturing the generalized ambient atmospheric conditions yet considering local climatology. To address this need, this paper tests the applicability of the spatial synoptic classification (SSC) as a tool to predict visitor attendance response in the tourism, recreation, and leisure (TRL) sector across different climate regimes. Daily attendance data is paired with the prevailing synoptic weather condition at Atlanta and Indianapolis zoological parks from September 2001 to June 2011, to review potential impacts ambient atmospheric conditions may have on visitor attendances. Results indicate that "dry moderate" conditions are most associated with high levels of attendance and "moist polar" synoptic conditions are most associated with low levels of attendance at both zoological parks. Comparing visitor response at these zoo locations, visitors in Indianapolis showed lower levels of tolerance to synoptic conditions which were not "ideal." Visitors in Indianapolis also displayed more aversion to "polar" synoptic regimes while visitors in Atlanta displayed more tolerance to "moist tropical" synoptic regimes. Using a comprehensive atmospheric measure such as the SSC may be a key to broadening application when assessing tourism climates across diverse geographies.

Small river plumes off the northeastern coast of the Black Sea under average climatic and flooding discharge conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osadchiev, Alexander; Korshenko, Evgeniya

2017-06-01

This study focuses on the impact of discharges of small rivers on the delivery and fate of fluvial water and suspended matter at the northeastern part of the Black Sea under different local precipitation conditions. Several dozens of mountainous rivers flow into the sea at the study region, and most of them, except for several of the largest, have little annual runoff and affect adjacent coastal waters to a limited extent under average climatic conditions. However, the discharges of these small rivers are characterized by a quick response to precipitation events and can significantly increase during and shortly after heavy rains, which are frequent in the considered area. The delivery and fate of fluvial water and terrigenous sediments at the study region, under average climatic and rain-induced flooding conditions, were explored and compared using in situ data, satellite imagery, and numerical modeling. It was shown that the point-source spread of continental discharge dominated by several large rivers under average climatic conditions can change to the line-source discharge from numerous small rivers situated along the coast in response to heavy rains. The intense line-source runoff of water and suspended sediments forms a geostrophic alongshore current of turbid and freshened water, which induces the intense transport of suspended and dissolved constituents discharged with river waters in a northwestern direction. This process significantly influences water quality and causes active sediment load at large segments of the narrow shelf at the northeastern part of the Black Sea compared to average climatic discharge conditions.

Small river plumes near the north-eastern coast of the Black Sea under climatic mean and flooding discharge conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osadchiev, Alexander; Korshenko, Evgeniya

2017-04-01

The study is focused on the impact of discharge from small rivers on propagation and final location of fluvial waters and suspended matter at the north-eastern part of the Black Sea under different local precipitation conditions. Several dozens of mountainous rivers inflow into the sea at the studied region and most of them, except the several largest of them, have small annual runoff and limitedly affect adjacent coastal waters under climatic mean conditions. However, discharges of these small rivers are characterized by quick response to precipitation events and can dramatically increase during and shortly after heavy rains, which are frequent in the area under consideration. Propagation and final location of fluvial waters and terrigenous sediments at the studied region under climatic mean and rain-induced flooding conditions were explored and compared using in situ data, satellite imagery and numerical modelling. It was shown that the point-source spread of continental discharge dominated by several large rivers during climatic mean conditions can change to the line-source discharge from numerous small rivers situated along the coast in response to heavy rains. Intense line-source runoff of water and suspended sediments form a geostrophic alongshore current of turbid and freshened water, which induces intense transport of suspended and dissolved constituents discharged with river waters in a north-western direction. This process significantly influences water quality and causes active sediment load at large segments of narrow shelf at the north-eastern part of the Black Sea as compared to climatic mean discharge conditions.

Variability in Heat Strain in Fully Encapsulated Impermeable Suits in Different Climates and at Different Work Loads.

PubMed

DenHartog, Emiel A; Rubenstein, Candace D; Deaton, A Shawn; Bogerd, Cornelis Peter

2017-03-01

A major concern for responders to hazardous materials (HazMat) incidents is the heat strain that is caused by fully encapsulated impermeable (NFPA 1991) suits. In a research project, funded by the US Department of Defense, the thermal strain experienced when wearing these suits was studied. Forty human subjects between the ages of 25 and 50 participated in a protocol approved by the local ethical committee. Six different fully encapsulated impermeable HazMat suits were evaluated in three climates: moderate (24°C, 50% RH, 20°C WBGT), warm-wet (32°C, 60% RH, 30°C WBGT), and hot-dry (45°C, 20% RH, 37°C WBGT, 200 W m-2 radiant load) and at three walking speeds: 2.5, 4, and 5.5 km h-1. The medium speed, 4 km h-1, was tested in all three climates and the other two walking speeds were only tested in the moderate climate. Prior to the test a submaximal exercise test in normal clothing was performed to determine a relationship between heart rate and oxygen consumption (pretest). In total, 163 exposures were measured. Tolerance time ranged from as low as 20 min in the hot-dry condition to 60 min (the maximum) in the moderate climate, especially common at the lowest walking speed. Between the six difference suits limited differences were found, a two-layered aluminized suit exhibited significant shorter tolerance times in the moderate climate, but no other major significant differences were found for the other climates or workloads. An important characteristic of the overall dataset is the large variability between the subjects. Although the average responses seem suitable to be predicted, the variability in the warmer strain conditions ranged from 20 min up to 60 min. The work load in these encapsulated impermeable suits was also significantly higher than working in normal clothing and higher than predicted by the Pandolf equation. Heart rate showed a very strong correlation to body core temperature and was in many cases the limiting factor. Setting the heart rate maximum at 80% of predicted individual maximum (age based) would have prevented 95% of the cases with excessive heat strain. Monitoring of heart rate under operational conditions would further allow individually optimize working times and help in preventing exertional heat stroke. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Occupational Hygiene Society.

Research on Potential Induced Degradation (PID) of PV Modules in Different Typical Climate Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daoren, Gong; Yingnan, Chen; Gang, Sun; Wenjing, Wang; Zhenshuang, Ji

2018-03-01

Potential Induced Degradation (PID) is one of the most important factors effecting the performances of Photovoltaic (PV) modules and PV systems in recent years. In this paper the PID phenomena of the PV power plant in different typical climate regions were studied and some experimental PID simulations were carried out in order to find out the factors effecting the performance by PID. The results show that the typical PID phenomena are easy to occur in cells close to the border of the PV module. PID phenomena can appear in PV power plants under different climate conditions, but the effecting degrees on module performance are different depending on temperature, humidity and other parameters. We also find the maximum power would recover in some degree after positive-bias voltage duration.

Egg size investment in superb fairy-wrens: helper effects are modulated by climate

PubMed Central

Heinsohn, R. G.; Russell, A. F.; Kilner, R. M.

2016-01-01

Natural populations might exhibit resilience to changing climatic conditions if they already show adaptive flexibility in their reproductive strategies. In cooperative breeders, theory predicts that mothers with helpers should provide less care when environmental conditions are favourable, but maintain high investment when conditions are challenging. Here, we test for evidence of climate-mediated flexibility in maternal investment in the cooperatively breeding superb fairy-wren Malurus cyaneus. We focus on egg size because in this species egg size influences offspring size, and females reduce egg investment when there are helpers at the nest. We report that females lay larger eggs during dry, hot conditions. However, the effect of temperature is modulated by the presence of helpers: the average egg size of females with helpers is reduced during cooler conditions but increased during hot conditions relative to females without helpers. This appears to reflect plasticity in egg investment rather than among female differences. Analysis of maternal survival suggests that helped females are better able to withstand the costs of breeding in hot conditions than females without helpers. Our study suggests that females can use multiple, independent cues to modulate egg investment flexibly in a variable environment. PMID:27903872

Egg size investment in superb fairy-wrens: helper effects are modulated by climate.

PubMed

Langmore, N E; Bailey, L D; Heinsohn, R G; Russell, A F; Kilner, R M

2016-11-30

Natural populations might exhibit resilience to changing climatic conditions if they already show adaptive flexibility in their reproductive strategies. In cooperative breeders, theory predicts that mothers with helpers should provide less care when environmental conditions are favourable, but maintain high investment when conditions are challenging. Here, we test for evidence of climate-mediated flexibility in maternal investment in the cooperatively breeding superb fairy-wren Malurus cyaneus We focus on egg size because in this species egg size influences offspring size, and females reduce egg investment when there are helpers at the nest. We report that females lay larger eggs during dry, hot conditions. However, the effect of temperature is modulated by the presence of helpers: the average egg size of females with helpers is reduced during cooler conditions but increased during hot conditions relative to females without helpers. This appears to reflect plasticity in egg investment rather than among female differences. Analysis of maternal survival suggests that helped females are better able to withstand the costs of breeding in hot conditions than females without helpers. Our study suggests that females can use multiple, independent cues to modulate egg investment flexibly in a variable environment. © 2016 The Author(s).

Developing Landscape Level Indicators for Predicting Watershed Condition

EPA Science Inventory

Drainage basins (watersheds) exert a strong influence on the condition of water bodies such as streams and lakes. Watersheds and associated aquatic systems respond differently to stressors (e.g., land use change) or restoration activities depending on the climatic setting, bedroc...

Simulation and analysis of soil-water conditions in the Great Plains and adjacent areas, central United States, 1951-80

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dugan, Jack T.; Zelt, Ronald B.

2000-01-01

Ground-water recharge and consumptive-irrigation requirements in the Great Plains and adjacent areas largely depend upon an environment extrinsic to the ground-water system. This extrinsic environment, which includes climate, soils, and vegetation, determines the water demands of evapotranspiration, the availability of soil water to meet these demands, and the quantity of soil water remaining for potential ground-water recharge after these demands are met. The geographic extent of the Great Plains contributes to large regional differences among all elements composing the extrinsic environment, particularly the climatic factors. A soil-water simulation program, SWASP, which synthesizes selected climatic, soil, and vegetation factors, was used to simulate the regional soil-water conditions during 1951-80. The output from SWASP consists of several soil-water characteristics, including surface runoff, infiltration, consumptive water requirements, actual evapotranspiration, potential recharge or deep percolation under various conditions, consumptive irrigation requirements, and net fluxes from the ground-water system under irrigated conditions. Simulation results indicate that regional patterns of potential recharge, consumptive irrigation requirements, and net fluxes from the ground-water system under irrigated conditions are largely determined by evapotranspiration and precipitation. The local effects of soils and vegetation on potential recharge cause potential recharge to vary by more than 50 percent in some areas having similar climatic conditions.

Towards an improved understanding of hillslope runoff as a supply for groundwater recharge: Assessing hillslope runoff under regional deforestation and varying climate conditions in a drainage basin in central coastal California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Young, K. S.; Beganskas, S.; Fisher, A. T.

2017-12-01

We use a hydrologic model to analyze hillslope runoff under a range of climate and land use conditions in the San Lorenzo River Basin (SLRB), central coastal California, including contemporary land use and incremental deforestation. The SLRB is a heavily forested watershed with chronically overdrafted aquifers; in some areas, groundwater levels have been lowered by >50 m in recent decades. Managed aquifer recharge (MAR) can help mitigate declines in groundwater storage, routing excess surface flows to locations where they can infiltrate. We are especially interested in opportunities for collection of stormwater runoff, particularly where development and other changes in landuse have increased hill slope runoff. To assess hillslope runoff at the subwatershed scale (10-100 ha; 25-250 ac), we apply the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) to a high-resolution, digital elevation model and populate the simulation with area- and density-weighted vegetation and soil parameters calculated from high resolution input data. We also develop and apply a catalog of dry, normal, and wet climate scenarios from the historic record (1981-2014). In addition, we simulate conditions ranging from 0 to 100 percent of redwoods harvested (representing the mid-1800s to 1930s logging era) using a historical land use data set to alter soil and vegetation conditions. Results under contemporary land use suggest there are ample opportunities to establish MAR projects during all climate scenarios; hill slope runoff generation is spatially variable and on average exceeds 23,000 ac-ft/yr (3.2 in/yr) during the driest climate scenario. Preliminary results from the deforestation scenarios show notable increases in hillslope runoff with progressive redwood harvesting. Relative to pre-logging conditions, between 1.1 in (dry climates) and 1.5 in (wet climates) more runoff is generated under contemporary conditions, with most of the runoff increase occurring in urban areas. These modeling methods generate understanding of the impacts of changes in land use and vegetation, their sensitivity to differences in climate, and potential for developing MAR projects to benefit from increased stormwater generation.

The last interglacial in eastern Canada and the northwest North Atlantic : further evidence for warmer climate and ocean conditions than during the Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Vernal, A.; Fréchette, B.; Hillaire-Marcel, C.; van Nieuwenhove, N.; Retailleau, S.

2012-04-01

The climate conditions of the last interglacial (LI) in northeastern and southeastern Canada are documented from pollen data of Baffin Island and Cape Breton Island respectively. The LI pollen assemblages indicate very different vegetation than at present and a northern limit of the deciduous forest biome as far as 500 km north of its modern position. The application of the modern analogue technique also reveal warmer climate during the LI than at present, 4-5°C warmer on Baffin Island at ~67-70°N in the Canadian Arctic, and up to 7°C warmer on Cape Breton Island at ~45°N in the southeastern Canada. The contrast between LI and Holocene climates is also shown from marine data (dinocysts, foraminifers, oxygen and carbon isotopes) that document warmer than Holocene conditions in surface waters (up to 5.5°C in summer, notably off southwest Greenland) and very distinct distribution of intermediate to deep waters in northern and southern part of the Labrador Sea. An important zonal atmospheric circulation component at mid-latitudes of the North Atlantic is also evidenced from the pollen content of marine cores collected in central North Atlantic (IODP Site 1304), which strongly suggests an origin from southeastern Canada. Altogether the data demonstrate much warmer conditions along the eastern Canadian margins, from North to South. The mild conditions along the coastlines and the relatively warm waters off eastern Canada and southern Greenland suggest reduced Arctic outflow components through the East Greenland Current and Labrador Current. Comparisons with records from eastern North Atlantic lead us to conclude in a more zonal climate during the LI than the Holocene, especially the early Holocene that was marked by a particularly pronounced west to east gradient of temperatures. Hence, the thermal optimum of the LI and that of the Holocene provide two examples of very different climate and ocean circulation regimes in the circum-Atlantic region during the "warm" episodes of the recent geological past.

Response of streamflow to projected climate change scenarios in an eastern Himalayan catchment of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senzeba, K. T.; Rajkumari, S.; Bhadra, A.; Bandyopadhyay, A.

2016-04-01

Snowmelt run-off model (SRM) based on degree-day approach has been employed to evaluate the change in snow-cover depletion and corresponding streamflow under different projected climatic scenarios for an eastern Himalayan catchment in India. Nuranang catchment located at Tawang district of Arunachal Pradesh with an area of 52 km2 is selected for the present study with an elevation range of 3143-4946 m above mean sea level. Satellite images from October to June of the selected hydrological year 2006-2007 were procured from National Remote Sensing Centre, Hyderabad. Snow cover mapping is done using NDSI method. Based on long term meteorological data, temperature and precipitation data of selected hydrological year are normalized to represent present climatic condition. The projected temperature and precipitation data are downloaded from NCAR's GIS data portal for different emission scenarios (SRES), viz., A1B, A2, B1; and IPCC commitment (non-SRES) scenario for different future years (2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050). Projected temperature and precipitation data are obtained at desired location by spatially interpolating the gridded data and then by statistical downscaling using linear regression. Snow depletion curves for all projected scenarios are generated for the study area and compared with conventional depletion curve for present climatic condition. Changes in cumulative snowmelt depth for different future years are highest under A1B and lowest under IPCC commitment, whereas A2 and B1 values are in-between A1B and IPCC commitment. Percentage increase in streamflow for different future years follows almost the same trend as change in precipitation from present climate under all projected climatic scenarios. Hence, it was concluded that for small catchments having seasonal snow cover, the total streamflow under projected climatic scenarios in future years will be primarily governed by the change in precipitation and not by change in snowmelt depth. Advancing of depletion curves for different future years are highest under A1B and lowest under IPCC commitment. A2 and B1 values are in-between A1B and IPCC commitment.

Assessing the contribution of different factors in RegCM4.3 regional climate model projections using the Factor Separation method over the Med-CORDEX domain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zsolt Torma, Csaba; Giorgi, Filippo

2014-05-01

A set of regional climate model (RCM) simulations applying dynamical downscaling of global climate model (GCM) simulations over the Mediterranean domain specified by the international initiative Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) were completed with the Regional Climate Model RegCM, version RegCM4.3. Two GCMs were selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble to provide the driving fields for the RegCM: HadGEM2-ES (HadGEM) and MPI-ESM-MR (MPI). The simulations consist of an ensemble including multiple physics configurations and different "Reference Concentration Pathways" (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). In total 15 simulations were carried out with 7 model physics configurations with varying convection and land surface schemes. The horizontal grid spacing of the RCM simulations is 50 km and the simulated period in all cases is 1970-2100 (1970-2099 in case of HadGEM driven simulations). This ensemble includes a combination of experiments in which different model components are changed individually and in combination, and thus lends itself optimally to the application of the Factor Separation (FS) method. This study applies the FS method to investigate the contributions of different factors, along with their synergy, on a set of regional climate model (RCM) projections for the Mediterranean region. The FS method is applied to 6 projections for the period 1970-2100 performed with the regional model RegCM4.3 over the Med-CORDEX domain. Two different sets of factors are intercompared, namely the driving global climate model (HadGEM and MPI) boundary conditions against two model physics settings (convection scheme and irrigation). We find that both the GCM driving conditions and the model physics provide important contributions, depending on the variable analyzed (surface air temperature and precipitation), season (winter vs. summer) and time horizon into the future, while the synergy term mostly tends to counterbalance the contributions of the individual factors. We demonstrate the usefulness of the FS method to assess different sources of uncertainty in RCM-based regional climate projections.

Understanding the major transitions in Quaternary climate dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willeit, Matteo; Ganopolski, Andrey

2017-04-01

Climate dynamics over the past 3 million years was characterized by strong variability associated with glacial cycles and several distinct regime changes. The Pliocene-Pleistocene Transition (PPT), which happened around 2.7 million years ago, was characterized by the appearance of the large continental ice sheets over Northern Eurasia and North America. For two million years after the PPT climate variability was dominated by relatively symmetric 40 kyr cycles. At around 1 million years ago the dominant mode of climate variability experienced a relatively rapid transition from 40 kyr to strongly asymmetric 100 kyr cycles of larger amplitude (Mid-Pleistocene Transition). Additionally, during the past 800 kyr there are clear differences between the earlier and the later glacial cycles with the last five cycles characterized by larger magnitude of variability (Mid-Brunhes Event). Here, we use the Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2 to explore possible mechanisms that could explain these regime shifts. CLIMBER-2 incorporates all major components of the Earth system - atmosphere, ocean, land surface, northern hemisphere ice sheets, terrestrial biota and soil carbon, marine biogeochemistry and aeolian dust. The model was optimally tuned to reproduce climate, ice volume and CO2 variability over the last 400,000 years. Using the same model version, we performed a large set of simulations covering the entire Quaternary (3 million years) starting from identical initial conditions and using a parallelization in time technique which consists of starting the model at different times (every 100,000 years) and running each simulation for 500,000 years. The Earth's orbital variations are the only prescribed radiative forcing. Several sets of the Northern Hemisphere orography and sediment thickness representing different stages of landscape evolution during the Quaternary are prescribed as boundary conditions for the ice sheet model and volcanic CO2 outgassing is used as the external forcing for the carbon cycle to allow for different background atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We show that by varying only these two model boundary conditions and volcanic forcing the model is able to reproduce the major regime changes of Quaternary long-term climate dynamics.

A Cool Urban Island Change 1990 - 2014. Comparative Bioclimatic Analysis in a Desert Climate, the Case of Antofagasta City Square

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez Lancellotti, Gino; Ziede Bize, Marcela

2017-10-01

This article proposes to make a comparative bioclimatic analysis from 1990 to 2014 of the main square of Antofagasta, a coastal desert city in Chile, which was remodelled in 1995, and shows how the redesigning of green areas affects the microclimatic conditions and thermal comfort of the urban space. Ex ante measurements dating 1990 were compared with ex post results from 2014. Data were obtained in both cases in the month of September at different times of a day and in different climate conditions. The variables studied were: land surface temperature, humidity, wind speed, amount of light and square use frequency inside the square and in surrounding streets. The temperatures are not statistically different during the years 1990 and 2014 for the city of Antofagasta. The main layout of the square has not changed, and inside the square it is similar for both periods, but new species were introduced and bigger trees with shadow projection were cut down. The square had a micro-climate role in 2014 as well as in 1990. The highest frequency zone with an important surface lost it is comfort thermic condition with an increase of 1°C. Other smaller zones with less relevance for users gained in cooling with a 0.5°C reduction. The new design has been detrimental to the intensity of its micro climatic regulatory function affecting the thermic comfort of the square’s internal spaces, especially those formerly protected by shadow, which mitigate a high solar radiation. The study results suggest that bio-climatic analysis of public open spaces is a key component for the design of future projects as a heat mitigating tool in the context of climate change. Research question is: How does the redesign of the square impact a cool urban island and the thermic comfort of users? Significant differences between data in situ collected in 1990 and 2014. Thermal comfort was negatively affected by the redesign in the square. The square is still a cool island but with less strength.

Impact of climate changes on population vital activities in Russia in the early 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zolotokrylin, A. N.; Vinogradova, V. V.; Titkova, T. B.; Cherenkova, E. A.; Bokuchava, D. D.; Sokolov, I. A.; Vinogradov, A. V.; Babina, E. D.

2018-01-01

The study substantiates the approach to the assessment of impact of climate change on vital activities of population in Russia in the face of increasing climate extremes. The obtained results reveal the occurrence of the essential climate extreme events over the period 1991-2013 in Russia that are vital for population activities. Annual amounts of interdiurnal temperature differences and pressure were calculated. Propagation of heat and cold waves, trends and frequencies of daily precipitation extremes were evaluated. The map “Zoning the territory of the Russian Federation by natural living conditions of the population” adapted for modern climate (2001-2010), illustrates the climate changes in the early 21st century. The modern warming of climate has led to a significant easing of discomfort in the territory of Russia. The steady decline of the absolutely unfavorable zone resulted from the expansion of less unfavorable areas is observed, especially in the Northern and Arctic regions. In the south the boundary of unfavorable territories shifts toward the north. It results in the expansion of the conditionally unfavorable area in West Siberia and in the south of East Siberia. In European Russia the favorable area expands and shifts far to the northern regions.

A methodological framework to assess PMP and PMF in snow-dominated watersheds under changing climate conditions - A case study of three watersheds in Québec (Canada)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rouhani, Hassan; Leconte, Robert

2018-06-01

Climate change will affect precipitation and flood regimes. It is anticipated that the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) and Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) will be modified in a changing climate. This paper aims to quantify and analyze climate change influences on PMP and PMF in three watersheds with different climatic conditions across the province of Québec, Canada. Output data from the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) was used to estimate PMP and Probable Maximum Snow Accumulation (PMSA) in future climate projections, which was then used to force the SWAT hydrological model to estimate PMF. PMP and PMF values were estimated for two time horizons each spanning 30 years: 1961-1990 (recent past) and 2041-2070 (future). PMP and PMF were separately analyzed for two seasons: summer-fall and spring. Results show that PMF in the watershed located in southern Québec would remain unchanged in the future horizon, but the trend for the watersheds located in the northeastern and northern areas of the province is an increase of up to 11%.

Influence of watershed topographic and socio-economic attributes on the climate sensitivity of global river water quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Afed U.; Jiang, Jiping; Wang, Peng; Zheng, Yi

2017-10-01

Surface waters exhibit regionalization due to various climatic conditions and anthropogenic activities. Here we assess the impact of topographic and socio-economic factors on the climate sensitivity of surface water quality, estimated using an elasticity approach (climate elasticity of water quality (CEWQ)), and identify potential risks of instability in different regions and climatic conditions. Large global datasets were used for 12 main water quality parameters from 43 water quality monitoring stations located at large major rivers. The results demonstrated that precipitation elasticity shows higher sensitivity to topographic and socio-economic determinants as compared to temperature elasticity. In tropical climate class (A), gross domestic product (GDP) played an important role in stabilizing the CEWQ. In temperate climate class (C), GDP played the same role in stability, while the runoff coefficient, slope, and population density fuelled the risk of instability. The results implied that watersheds with lower runoff coefficient, thick population density, over fertilization and manure application face a higher risk of instability. We discuss the socio-economic and topographic factors that cause instability of CEWQ parameters and conclude with some suggestions for watershed managers to bring sustainability in freshwater bodies.

Ceramic production during changing environmental/climatic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oestreich, Daniela B.; Glasmacher, Ulrich A.

2015-04-01

Ceramics, with regard to their status as largely everlasting everyday object as well as on the basis of their chronological sensitivity, reflect despite their simplicity the technological level of a culture and therefore also, directly or indirectly, the adaptability of a culture with respect to environmental and/or climatic changes. For that reason the question arises, if it is possible to identify changes in production techniques and raw material sources for ceramic production, as a response to environmental change, e.g. climate change. This paper will present results of a research about Paracas Culture (800 - 200 BC), southern Peru. Through several investigations (e.g. Schittek et al., 2014; Eitel and Mächtle, 2009) it is well known that during Paracas period changes in climate and environmental conditions take place. As a consequence, settlement patterns shifted several times through the various stages of Paracas time. Ceramics from three different sites (Jauranga, Cutamalla, Collanco) and temporal phases of the Paracas period are detailed archaeometric, geochemical and mineralogical characterized, e.g. Raman spectroscopy, XRD, and ICP-MS analyses. The aim of this research is to resolve potential differences in the chemical composition of the Paracas ceramics in space and time and to compare the data with the data sets of pre-Columbian environmental conditions. Thus influences of changing environmental conditions on human societies and their cultural conditions will be discussed. References Eitel, B. and Mächtle, B. 2009. Man and Environment in the eastern Atacama Desert (Southern Peru): Holocene climate changes and their impact on pre-Columbian cultures. In: Reindel, M. & Wagner, G. A. (eds.) New Technologies for Archaeology. Berlin Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag. Schittek, K., Mächtle, B., Schäbitz, F., Forbriger, M., Wennrich, V., Reindel, M., and Eitel, B.. Holocene environmental changes in the highlands of the southern Peruvian Andes (14° S) and their impact on pre-Columbian cultures, Clim. Past Discuss., 10, 1707-1746.

Study on the optimum PCM melting temperature for energy savings in residential buildings worldwide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saffari, M.; de Gracia, A.; Fernández, C.; Zsembinszki, G.; Cabeza, L. F.

2017-10-01

To maintain comfort conditions in residential buildings along a full year period, the use of active systems is generally required to either supply heating or cooling. The heating and cooling demands strongly depend on the climatic conditions, type of building and occupants’ behaviour. The overall annual energy consumption of the building can be reduced by the use of renewable energy sources and/or passive systems. The use of phase change materials (PCM) as passive systems in buildings enhances the thermal mass of the envelope, and reduces the indoor temperature fluctuations. As a consequence, the overall energy consumption of the building is generally lower as compared to the case when no PCM systems are used. The selection of the PCM melting temperature is a key issue to reduce the energy consumption of the buildings. The main focus of this study is to determine the optimum PCM melting temperature for passive heating and cooling according to different weather conditions. To achieve that, numerical simulations were carried out using EnergyPlus v8.4 coupled with GenOpt® v3.1.1 (a generic optimization software). A multi-family residential apartment was selected from ASHRAE Standard 90.1- 2013 prototype building model, and different climate conditions were considered to determine the optimum melting temperature (in the range from 20ºC to 26ºC) of the PCM contained in gypsum panels. The results confirm that the optimum melting temperature of the PCM strongly depends on the climatic conditions. In general, in cooling dominant climates the optimum PCM temperature is around 26ºC, while in heating dominant climates it is around 20ºC. Furthermore, the results show that an adequate selection of the PCM as passive system in building envelope can provide important energy savings for both heating dominant and cooling dominant regions.

Climate, niche evolution, and diversification of the "bird-cage" evening primroses (Oenothera, sections Anogra and Kleinia).

PubMed

Evans, Margaret E K; Smith, Stephen A; Flynn, Rachel S; Donoghue, Michael J

2009-02-01

We integrate climatic niche models and dated phylogenies to characterize the evolution of climatic niches in Oenothera sections Anogra and Kleinia (Onagraceae), and from that we make inferences on diversification in relation to climate. The evolution of climatic tolerances in Anogra + Kleinia has been heterogeneous, across phylogenetic groups and across different dimensions of climate. All the extant taxa occur in semiarid to arid conditions (annual precipitation of 10.1-49.1 cm and high temperatures in the warmest month of 28.5 degrees-40.1 degrees C), but there is striking variation among taxa in their climatic tolerances, especially temperature (minimum temperatures in the coldest month of -14.0 degrees to 5.3 degrees C) and summer versus winter precipitation (precipitation in the warmest quarter of 0.6-19.4 cm). Climatic disparity is especially pronounced in two subclades (californica, deltoides) that radiated in the southwestern United States and California, apparently including both divergent and convergent evolution of climatic tolerances. This niche evolution is remarkable, given the probable timescale of the radiation (approximately 1 million years). We suggest that the spatiotemporal climatic heterogeneity of western North America has served as a driver of diversification. Our data are also consistent with Axelrod's hypothesis that the spread of arid conditions in western North America stimulated diversification of arid-adapted lineages.

Adaptation to climate through flowering phenology: a case study in Medicago truncatula.

PubMed

Burgarella, Concetta; Chantret, Nathalie; Gay, Laurène; Prosperi, Jean-Marie; Bonhomme, Maxime; Tiffin, Peter; Young, Nevin D; Ronfort, Joelle

2016-07-01

Local climatic conditions likely constitute an important selective pressure on genes underlying important fitness-related traits such as flowering time, and in many species, flowering phenology and climatic gradients strongly covary. To test whether climate shapes the genetic variation on flowering time genes and to identify candidate flowering genes involved in the adaptation to environmental heterogeneity, we used a large Medicago truncatula core collection to examine the association between nucleotide polymorphisms at 224 candidate genes and both climate variables and flowering phenotypes. Unlike genome-wide studies, candidate gene approaches are expected to enrich for the number of meaningful trait associations because they specifically target genes that are known to affect the trait of interest. We found that flowering time mediates adaptation to climatic conditions mainly by variation at genes located upstream in the flowering pathways, close to the environmental stimuli. Variables related to the annual precipitation regime reflected selective constraints on flowering time genes better than the other variables tested (temperature, altitude, latitude or longitude). By comparing phenotype and climate associations, we identified 12 flowering genes as the most promising candidates responsible for phenological adaptation to climate. Four of these genes were located in the known flowering time QTL region on chromosome 7. However, climate and flowering associations also highlighted largely distinct gene sets, suggesting different genetic architectures for adaptation to climate and flowering onset. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The interactions between vegetation and climate seasonality, topography on different time scales under the Budyko framework: case study in China's Loess Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, W.; Ning, T.; Shen, H.; Li, Z.

2017-12-01

Vegetation, climate seasonality and topography are the main impact factors controlling the water and heat balance over a catchment, and they are usually empirically formulated into the controlling parameter in Budyko model. However, their interactions on different time scales have not been fully addressed. Taking 30 catchments in China's Loess Plateau as an example, on annual scale, vegetation coverage was found poorly correlated with climate seasonality index; therefore, they could be both parameterized into the Budyko model. On the long-term scale, vegetation coverage tended to have close relationships with topographic conditions and climate seasonality, which was confirmed by the multi-collinearity problems; in that sense, vegetation information could fit the controlling parameter exclusively. Identifying the dominant controlling factors over different time scales, this study simplified the empirical parameterization of the Budyko formula. Though the above relationships further investigation over the other regions/catchments.

How does climate influence xylem morphogenesis over the growing season? Insights from long-term intra-ring anatomy in Picea abies

PubMed Central

Fonti, Patrick; von Arx, Georg; Carrer, Marco

2017-01-01

Background and Aims During the growing season, the cambium of conifer trees produces successive rows of xylem cells, the tracheids, that sequentially pass through the phases of enlargement and secondary wall thickening before dying and becoming functional. Climate variability can strongly influence the kinetics of morphogenetic processes, eventually affecting tracheid shape and size. This study investigates xylem anatomical structure in the stem of Picea abies to retrospectively infer how, in the long term, climate affects the processes of cell enlargement and wall thickening. Methods Tracheid anatomical traits related to the phases of enlargement (diameter) and wall thickening (wall thickness) were innovatively inspected at the intra-ring level on 87-year-long tree-ring series in Picea abies trees along a 900 m elevation gradient in the Italian Alps. Anatomical traits in ten successive tree-ring sectors were related to daily temperature and precipitation data using running correlations. Key Results Close to the altitudinal tree limit, low early-summer temperature negatively affected cell enlargement. At lower elevation, water availability in early summer was positively related to cell diameter. The timing of these relationships shifted forward by about 20 (high elevation) to 40 (low elevation) d from the first to the last tracheids in the ring. Cell wall thickening was affected by climate in a different period in the season. In particular, wall thickness of late-formed tracheids was strongly positively related to August–September temperature at high elevation. Conclusions Morphogenesis of tracheids sequentially formed in the growing season is influenced by climate conditions in successive periods. The distinct climate impacts on cell enlargement and wall thickening indicate that different morphogenetic mechanisms are responsible for different tracheid traits. Our approach of long-term and high-resolution analysis of xylem anatomy can support and extend short-term xylogenesis observations, and increase our understanding of climate control of tree growth and functioning under different environmental conditions. PMID:28130220

Reconstructing the Neogene Paleohydrology of the Northern Tibetan Plateau with Molecular Proxy Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, M.; Zhuang, G.; Hou, M.

2017-12-01

The climatic evolution on the northern Tibetan Plateau has long been a dynamic and controversial topic. Different views include that the climate may have become dry monotonically since the time period of 12 to 10 Ma, or the present-day dry conditions were reached in several steps which were coupled to the phased expansion of Tibetan Plateau, or the climate alternated between dry and wet conditions during the late Neogene—a result of varying climate related to the East Asian monsoon. The different views are due to the lack of a holistic knowledge about climatic histories that influenced the northern Tibetan Plateau. Previous studies show that the strong East Asian summer monsoon has been dominant in the eastern part of the Northern Tibetan Plateau during the 'prolonged interglacial state' (ca. 7 to 4 Ma); whilst others reveal that the whole northern Tibetan Plateau has been under the dominant influence of the westerlies since the Eocene. In order to reconstruct the paleoclimatic history, we applied the new proxy in paleoclimatology, i.e. the compound-specific isotope hydrogen analysis on lipid wax n-alkanes. We studied two well-dated sedimentary sections from the southwestern Qaidam basin on the northern Tibetan Plateau. These two sections comprise a 16-million-year-long record of δ2Hn-alk. Our new δ2Hn-alk values show a trend that δ2Hn-alk values became higher during the middle to late Miocene and kept the high values until the Quaternary. Our new findings share similarities as well as show differences from previous δ2Hn-alk study in the region. The timing of the onset of increasing δ2Hn-alk is synchronous across the region, revealing the drying climate. However, the relatively stable δ2Hn-alk values, contrasting with the relatively lower δ2Hn-alk values during the 'prolonged interglacial state', suggest that two climatic regimes were controlling different parts of the northern Tibetan Plateau.

Alterations in flowering strategies and sexual allocation of Caragana stenophylla along a climatic aridity gradient.

PubMed

Xie, Lina; Guo, Hongyu; Ma, Chengcang

2016-09-15

Plant can alter reproductive strategies for adaptation to different environments. However, alterations in flowering strategies and sexual allocation for the same species growing in different environments still remain unclear. We examined the sexual reproduction parameters of Caragana stenophylla across four climatic zones from semi-arid, arid, very arid, to intensively arid zones in the Inner Mongolia Steppe, China. Under the relatively favorable climatic conditions of semi-arid zone, C. stenophylla took a K-strategy for flowering (fewer but bigger flowers, and higher seed set). In contrast, under the harsher climatic conditions of intensively arid zone, C. stenophylla took an r-strategy for flowering (more but smaller flowers, and lower seed set). In arid and very arid zones, C. stenophylla exhibited intermediate flowering strategies between K- and r-strategies. In semi-arid, arid and very arid zones, sexual allocation and sexual allocation efficiency (SAE) of C. stenophylla were high, and the population recruitment might be mainly through sexual reproduction; in intensively arid zone, however, sexual allocation and SAE were very low, seed production was very limited, and clonal reproduction might compensate for the decrease in sexual reproduction. Our results suggested that C. stenophylla adapted to the climatic aridity gradient by alterations in flowering strategies and reproductive allocation.

How climatic conditions, site, and soil characteristics affect tree growth and critical loads of nitrogen for northeastern tree species

Treesearch

Molly J. Robin-Abbott; Linda H. Pardo

2017-01-01

Forest health is affected by multiple factors, including topography, climate, and soil characteristics, as well as pests, pathogens, competitive interactions, and anthropogenic deposition. Species within a stand may respond differently to site factors depending on their physiological requirements for growth, survival, and regeneration. We determined optimal ranges of...

Dynamics of aerial and terrestrial populations of Phytophthora ramorum in a California watershed under different climatic conditions

Treesearch

Catherine A. Eyre; Melina Kozanitas; Matteo Garbelotto

2013-01-01

We present a study of the epidemiology of sudden oak death (SOD) in California within a watershed based on temporally and spatially replicated surveys of symptoms, viability of the pathogen from symptomatic leaves, and genetic analyses using polymorphic SSR markers.Phytophthora ramorum is sensitive to climate; its...

The role of mesophyll conductance during water stress and recovery in tobacco (Nicotiana sylvestris): acclimation or limitation?

PubMed

Galle, Alexander; Florez-Sarasa, Igor; Tomas, Magdalena; Pou, Alicia; Medrano, Hipolito; Ribas-Carbo, Miquel; Flexas, Jaume

2009-01-01

While the responses of photosynthesis to water stress have been widely studied, acclimation to sustained water stress and recovery after re-watering is poorly understood. In particular, the factors limiting photosynthesis under these conditions, and their possible interactions with other environmental conditions, are unknown. To assess these issues, changes of photosynthetic CO(2) assimilation (A(N)) and its underlying limitations were followed during prolonged water stress and subsequent re-watering in tobacco (Nicotiana sylvestris) plants growing under three different climatic conditions: outdoors in summer, outdoors in spring, and indoors in a growth chamber. In particular, the regulation of stomatal conductance (g(s)), mesophyll conductance to CO(2) (g(m)), leaf photochemistry (chlorophyll fluorescence), and biochemistry (V(c,max)) were assessed. Leaf gas exchange and chlorophyll fluorescence data revealed that water stress induced a similar degree of stomatal closure and decreased A(N) under all three conditions, while V(c,max) was unaffected. However, the behaviour of g(m) differed depending on the climatic conditions. In outdoor plants, g(m) strongly declined with water stress, but it recovered rapidly (1-2 d) after re-watering in spring while it remained low many days after re-watering in summer. In indoor plants, g(m) initially declined with water stress, but then recovered to control values during the acclimation period. These differences were reflected in different velocities of recovery of A(N) after re-watering, being the slowest in outdoor summer plants and the fastest in indoor plants. It is suggested that these differences among the experiments are related to the prevailing climatic conditions, i.e. to the fact that stress factors other than water stress have been superimposed (e.g. excessive light and elevated temperature). In conclusion, besides g(s), g(m) contributes greatly to the limitation of photosynthesis during water stress and during recovery from water stress, but its role is strongly dependent on the impact of additional environmental factors.

Nonlinear dynamics in ecosystem response to climatic change: Case studies and policy implications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burkett, Virginia R.; Wilcox, Douglas A.; Stottlemyer, Robert; Barrow, Wylie; Fagre, Dan; Baron, Jill S.; Price, Jeff; Nielsen, Jennifer L.; Allen, Craig D.; Peterson, David L.; Ruggerone, Greg; Doyle, Thomas

2005-01-01

Many biological, hydrological, and geological processes are interactively linked in ecosystems. These ecological phenomena normally vary within bounded ranges, but rapid, nonlinear changes to markedly different conditions can be triggered by even small differences if threshold values are exceeded. Intrinsic and extrinsic ecological thresholds can lead to effects that cascade among systems, precluding accurate modeling and prediction of system response to climate change. Ten case studies from North America illustrate how changes in climate can lead to rapid, threshold-type responses within ecological communities; the case studies also highlight the role of human activities that alter the rate or direction of system response to climate change. Understanding and anticipating nonlinear dynamics are important aspects of adaptation planning since responses of biological resources to changes in the physical climate system are not necessarily proportional and sometimes, as in the case of complex ecological systems, inherently nonlinear.

Climate change and forests of the future: Managing in the face of uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Millar, C.I.; Stephenson, N.L.; Stephens, S.L.

2007-01-01

We offer a conceptual framework for managing forested ecosystems under an assumption that future environments will be different from present but that we cannot be certain about the specifics of change. We encourage flexible approaches that promote reversible and incremental steps, and that favor ongoing learning and capacity to modify direction as situations change. We suggest that no single solution fits all future challenges, especially in the context of changing climates, and that the best strategy is to mix different approaches for different situations. Resources managers will be challenged to integrate adaptation strategies (actions that help ecosystems accommodate changes adaptively) and mitigation strategies (actions that enable ecosystems to reduce anthropogenic influences on global climate) into overall plans. Adaptive strategies include resistance options (forestall impacts and protect highly valued resources), resilience options (improve the capacity of ecosystems to return to desired conditions after disturbance), and response options (facilitate transition of ecosystems from current to new conditions). Mitigation strategies include options to sequester carbon and reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions. Priority-setting approaches (e.g., triage), appropriate for rapidly changing conditions and for situations where needs are greater than available capacity to respond, will become increasingly important in the future. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Modeling the effects of climate on date palm scale ( Parlatoria blanchardi) population dynamics during different phenological stages of life history under hot arid conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Idder-Ighili, Hakima; Idder, Mohamed Azzedine; Doumandji-Mitiche, Bahia; Chenchouni, Haroun

2015-10-01

The date palm scale (DPS) Parlatoria blanchardi is a serious pest due to the damage it inflicts on its host tree ( Phoenix dactylifera). To develop an effective control against DPS in arid regions, it is essential to know its bio-ecology including population dynamics and climatic factors influencing the duration and timing of life history and also the densities of different phenological stages (crawlers, first and second instars nymphs, adult males, and adult females). Monitoring of biological cycle and population dynamics of the pest were achieved through weekly counts of DPS densities on leaflets sampled at different position of date palm trees in an oasis of Ouargla region (Algerian Sahara Desert). Within this hyper-arid region, DPS established four generations per year, the most important was the spring generation. Two overlapping generations occurred in spring-early summer and two in autumn-early winter; these two pairs of generations were interspersed by two phases of high-mortality rates, the first corresponds to winter cold and the second refers to the extreme heat of summer. Statistical analysis of the effects of the studied climatic conditions (minimum, maximum and mean temperatures, precipitation, humidity, wind, rain days, and climatic indices) on the DPS densities at different phenological stages showed great variability from one stage to another. Among these, adult females were the most affected by climate factors. For the total DPS population, high values of minimum temperatures negatively affected population density, while high maximum temperatures, hygrometry, and De Martonne aridity index showed a positive influence.

Modeling the effects of climate on date palm scale (Parlatoria blanchardi) population dynamics during different phenological stages of life history under hot arid conditions.

PubMed

Idder-Ighili, Hakima; Idder, Mohamed Azzedine; Doumandji-Mitiche, Bahia; Chenchouni, Haroun

2015-10-01

The date palm scale (DPS) Parlatoria blanchardi is a serious pest due to the damage it inflicts on its host tree (Phoenix dactylifera). To develop an effective control against DPS in arid regions, it is essential to know its bio-ecology including population dynamics and climatic factors influencing the duration and timing of life history and also the densities of different phenological stages (crawlers, first and second instars nymphs, adult males, and adult females). Monitoring of biological cycle and population dynamics of the pest were achieved through weekly counts of DPS densities on leaflets sampled at different position of date palm trees in an oasis of Ouargla region (Algerian Sahara Desert). Within this hyper-arid region, DPS established four generations per year, the most important was the spring generation. Two overlapping generations occurred in spring-early summer and two in autumn-early winter; these two pairs of generations were interspersed by two phases of high-mortality rates, the first corresponds to winter cold and the second refers to the extreme heat of summer. Statistical analysis of the effects of the studied climatic conditions (minimum, maximum and mean temperatures, precipitation, humidity, wind, rain days, and climatic indices) on the DPS densities at different phenological stages showed great variability from one stage to another. Among these, adult females were the most affected by climate factors. For the total DPS population, high values of minimum temperatures negatively affected population density, while high maximum temperatures, hygrometry, and De Martonne aridity index showed a positive influence.

Predicting the potential distributions of the invasive cycad scale Aulacaspis yasumatsui (Hemiptera: Diaspididae) under different climate change scenarios and the implications for management.

PubMed

Wei, Jiufeng; Zhao, Qing; Zhao, Wanqing; Zhang, Hufang

2018-01-01

Cycads are an ancient group of gymnosperms that are popular as landscaping plants, though nearly all of them are threatened or endangered in the wild. The cycad aulacaspis scale (CAS), Aulacaspis yasumatsui Takagi (Hemiptera: Diaspididae), has become one of the most serious pests of cycads in recent years; however, the potential distribution range and the management approach for this pest are unclear. A potential risk map of cycad aulacaspis scale was created based on occurrence data under different climatic conditions and topology factors in this study. Furthermore, the future potential distributions of CAS were projected for the periods 2050s and 2070s under three different climate change scenarios (GFDL-CM3, HADGEM2-AO and MIROC5) described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The model suggested high environmental suitability for the continents of Asia and North America, where the species has already been recorded. The potential distribution expansions or reductions were also predicted under different climate change conditions. Temperature of Driest Quarter (Bio9) was the most important factor, explaining 48.1% of the distribution of the species. The results also suggested that highly suitable habitat for CAS would exist in the study area if the mean temperature of 15-20 °C in the driest quarter and a mean temperature of 25-28 °C the wettest quarter. This research provides a theoretical reference framework for developing policy to manage and control this invasive pest.

Empirically Supported Treatment’s Impact on Organizational Culture and Climate

PubMed Central

Patterson-Silver Wolf, David A.; Dulmus, Catherine N.; Maguin, Eugene

2012-01-01

Objectives With the continued push to implement empirically supported treatments (ESTs) into community-based organizations, it is important to investigate whether working condition disruptions occur during this process. While there are many studies investigating best practices and how to adopt them, the literature lacks studies investigating the working conditions in programs that currently use ESTs. Method This study compared the culture and climate scores of a large organization’s programs that use ESTs and those programs indicating no EST usage. Results Of the total 55 different programs (1,273 frontline workers), 27 programs used ESTs. Results indicate that the programs offering an EST had significantly more rigid and resistant cultures, compared to those without any ESTs. In regard to climate, programs offering an EST were significantly less engaged, less functional, and more stressed. Conclusion Outcomes indicate a significant disruption in organizational culture and climate for programs offering ESTs. PMID:23243379

Empirically Supported Treatment's Impact on Organizational Culture and Climate.

PubMed

Patterson-Silver Wolf, David A; Dulmus, Catherine N; Maguin, Eugene

2012-11-01

OBJECTIVES: With the continued push to implement empirically supported treatments (ESTs) into community-based organizations, it is important to investigate whether working condition disruptions occur during this process. While there are many studies investigating best practices and how to adopt them, the literature lacks studies investigating the working conditions in programs that currently use ESTs. METHOD: This study compared the culture and climate scores of a large organization's programs that use ESTs and those programs indicating no EST usage. RESULTS: Of the total 55 different programs (1,273 frontline workers), 27 programs used ESTs. Results indicate that the programs offering an EST had significantly more rigid and resistant cultures, compared to those without any ESTs. In regard to climate, programs offering an EST were significantly less engaged, less functional, and more stressed. CONCLUSION: Outcomes indicate a significant disruption in organizational culture and climate for programs offering ESTs.

Increased survival and prolonged longevity mainly contribute to the temperature-adaptive evolutionary strategy in invasive Bemisia tabaci (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae) Middle East Asia Minor 1.

PubMed

Lü, Zhi-Chuang; Gao, Qing-Lei; Wan, Fang-Hao; Yu, Hao; Guo, Jian-Ying

2014-10-15

With increasing global climate change, analyses of stress-inducing conditions have important significance in ecological adaptation and the biological distribution of species. To reveal the difference in temperature-adaptive strategy between Turpan and Beijing populations of Bemisia tabaci (Gennadius) Middle East Asia Minor 1 (MEAM1) under high-temperature stress conditions, we compared thermal tolerance and life history traits between Beijing and Turpan populations of MEAM1 after exposure to different heat shock treatments for different times. The experimental design reflected the nature of heat stress conditions suffered by MEAM1. The results showed that eggs, red-eyed pupae, and adults of the Turpan population were more heat tolerant than those of the Beijing population under the same stress conditions. Additionally, it was found that longevity and F1 adult survival rate were significantly higher in the Turpan population than in the Beijing population after heat shock stress, but egg number and F1 female ratio were not significantly different between Turpan population and Beijing population. Overall, it was suggested that heat tolerance and longevity traits were the most relevant for climate characteristics and not reproductive traits, and improved heat tolerance and prolonged longevity were important adaptive strategies that helped MEAM1 to survive in harsh high-temperature conditions such as Turpan arid desert climate. The present results provided further insight into the modes of heat tolerance and the ways in which survival and longevity traits respond to environmental selection pressures. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Entomological Society of America.

Aedes albopictus and Aedes japonicus - two invasive mosquito species with different temperature niches in Europe.

PubMed

Cunze, Sarah; Koch, Lisa K; Kochmann, Judith; Klimpel, Sven

2016-11-04

Aedes albopictus and Ae. japonicus are two of the most widespread invasive mosquito species that have recently become established in western Europe. Both species are associated with the transmission of a number of serious diseases and are projected to continue their spread in Europe. In the present study, we modelled the habitat suitability for both species under current and future climatic conditions by means of an Ensemble forecasting approach. We additionally compared the modelled MAXENT niches of Ae. albopictus and Ae. japonicus regarding temperature and precipitation requirements. Both species were modelled to find suitable habitat conditions in distinct areas within Europe: Ae. albopictus within the Mediterranean regions in southern Europe, Ae. japonicus within the more temperate regions of central Europe. Only in few regions, suitable habitat conditions were projected to overlap for both species. Whereas Ae. albopictus is projected to be generally promoted by climate change in Europe, the area modelled to be climatically suitable for Ae. japonicus is projected to decrease under climate change. This projection of range reduction under climate change relies on the assumption that Ae. japonicus is not able to adapt to warmer climatic conditions. The modelled MAXENT temperature niches of Ae. japonicus were found to be narrower with an optimum at lower temperatures compared to the niches of Ae. albopictus. Species distribution models identifying areas with high habitat suitability can help improving monitoring programmes for invasive species currently in place. However, as mosquito species are known to be able to adapt to new environmental conditions within the invasion range quickly, niche evolution of invasive mosquito species should be closely followed upon in future studies.

Seeing is Believing? An Examination of Perceptions of Local Weather Conditions and Climate Change Among Residents in the U.S. Gulf Coast.

PubMed

Shao, Wanyun; Goidel, Kirby

2016-11-01

What role do objective weather conditions play in coastal residents' perceptions of local climate shifts and how do these perceptions affect attitudes toward climate change? While scholars have increasingly investigated the role of weather and climate conditions on climate-related attitudes and behaviors, they typically assume that residents accurately perceive shifts in local climate patterns. We directly test this assumption using the largest and most comprehensive survey of Gulf Coast residents conducted to date supplemented with monthly temperature data from the U.S. Historical Climatology Network and extreme weather events data from National Climatic Data Center. We find objective conditions have limited explanatory power in determining perceptions of local climate patterns. Only the 15- and 19-year hurricane trends and decadal summer temperature trend have some effects on perceptions of these weather conditions, while the decadal trend of total number of extreme weather events and 15- and 19-year winter temperature trends are correlated with belief in climate change. Partisan affiliation, in contrast, plays a powerful role affecting individual perceptions of changing patterns of air temperatures, flooding, droughts, and hurricanes, as well as belief in the existence of climate change and concern for future consequences. At least when it comes to changing local conditions, "seeing is not believing." Political orientations rather than local conditions drive perceptions of local weather conditions and these perceptions-rather than objectively measured weather conditions-influence climate-related attitudes. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Not all players are equally motivated: The role of narcissism.

PubMed

Roberts, Ross; Woodman, Tim; Lofthouse, Sian; Williams, Lucy

2015-01-01

Research on motivational climates consistently demonstrates that mastery-focused climates are associated with positive outcomes and ego-involving performance climates lead to maladaptive outcomes. However, the role of personality within such a framework has been largely ignored. To redress this imbalance, we examined the potential role of narcissism in moderating the effects of different motivational climates on leader-inspired extra effort in training. Training is where rugby players spend most of their rugby time and we were keen to examine the combination of personality and climate that might maximise the yield of such training environments. Female rugby players (n = 126) from 15 clubs completed measures of narcissism, motivational climate and effort. Moderated regression analyses revealed that narcissism moderated the relationship between motivational climate and effort. Increases in either performance or mastery climates were associated with increases in effort for narcissists; no such relationship was revealed for low narcissists. The findings demonstrate the importance of considering personality within rugby training environments, as it is clear that not every player will respond the same way to specific training conditions. Coaches who understand this and are able to tailor individualised motivational climates will likely gain the greatest benefits from their different players.

Seasonally varying footprint of climate change on precipitation in the Middle East.

PubMed

Tabari, Hossein; Willems, Patrick

2018-03-13

Climate change is expected to alter precipitation patterns; however, the amplitude of the change may broadly differ across seasons. Combining different seasons may mask contrasting climate change signals in individual seasons, leading to weakened signals and misleading impact results. A realistic assessment of future climate change is of great importance for arid regions, which are more vulnerable to any change in extreme events as their infrastructure is less experienced or not well adapted for extreme conditions. Our results show that climate change signals and associated uncertainties over the Middle East region remarkably vary with seasons. The region is identified as a climate change hotspot where rare extreme precipitation events are expected to intensify for all seasons, with a "highest increase in autumn, lowest increase in spring" pattern which switches to the "increase in autumn, decrease in spring" pattern for less extreme precipitation. This pattern is also held for mean precipitation, violating the "wet gets wetter, dry gets drier" paradigm.

Scoping the proximal and distal dimensions of climate change on health and wellbeing.

PubMed

Morris, George Paterson; Reis, Stefan; Beck, Sheila Anne; Fleming, Lora Elderkin; Adger, William Neil; Benton, Timothy Guy; Depledge, Michael Harold

2017-12-05

The impacts of climate on health and wellbeing occur in time and space and through a range of indirect, complicated mechanisms. This diversity of pathways has major implications for national public health planning and influence on interventions that might help to mitigate and adapt to rapidly changing environmental conditions, nationally and internationally. This paper draws upon evidence from public health and adverse impact studies across climate science, hydrology, agriculture, public health, and the social sciences. It presents a conceptual model to support decision-making by recognizing both the proximal and distal pathways from climate-induced environmental change to national health and wellbeing. The proximal and distal pathways associated with food security, migration and mobility illustrate the diverse climate change influences in different geographic locations over different timescales. We argue that greater realization and articulation of proximal and distal pathways should radically alter how climate change is addressed as a national and international public health challenge.

Modeling vulnerability of groundwater to pollution under future scenarios of climate change and biofuels-related land use change: a case study in North Dakota, USA.

PubMed

Li, Ruopu; Merchant, James W

2013-03-01

Modeling groundwater vulnerability to pollution is critical for implementing programs to protect groundwater quality. Most groundwater vulnerability modeling has been based on current hydrogeology and land use conditions. However, groundwater vulnerability is strongly dependent on factors such as depth-to-water, recharge and land use conditions that may change in response to future changes in climate and/or socio-economic conditions. In this research, a modeling framework, which employs three sets of models linked within a geographic information system (GIS) environment, was used to evaluate groundwater pollution risks under future climate and land use changes in North Dakota. The results showed that areas with high vulnerability will expand northward and/or northwestward in Eastern North Dakota under different scenarios. GIS-based models that account for future changes in climate and land use can help decision-makers identify potential future threats to groundwater quality and take early steps to protect this critical resource. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Satellite remotely-sensed land surface parameters and their climatic effects for three metropolitan regions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Xian, George

2008-01-01

By using both high-resolution orthoimagery and medium-resolution Landsat satellite imagery with other geospatial information, several land surface parameters including impervious surfaces and land surface temperatures for three geographically distinct urban areas in the United States – Seattle, Washington, Tampa Bay, Florida, and Las Vegas, Nevada, are obtained. Percent impervious surface is used to quantitatively define the spatial extent and development density of urban land use. Land surface temperatures were retrieved by using a single band algorithm that processes both thermal infrared satellite data and total atmospheric water vapor content. Land surface temperatures were analyzed for different land use and land cover categories in the three regions. The heterogeneity of urban land surface and associated spatial extents were shown to influence surface thermal conditions because of the removal of vegetative cover, the introduction of non-transpiring surfaces, and the reduction in evaporation over urban impervious surfaces. Fifty years of in situ climate data were integrated to assess regional climatic conditions. The spatial structure of surface heating influenced by landscape characteristics has a profound influence on regional climate conditions, especially through urban heat island effects.

Meteorological Effects of Land Cover Changes in Hungary during the 20th Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drüszler, Á.; Vig, P.; Csirmaz, K.

2012-04-01

Geological, paleontological and geomorphologic studies show that the Earth's climate has always been changing since it came into existence. The climate change itself is self-evident. Therefore the far more serious question is how much does mankind strengthen or weaken these changes beyond the natural fluctuation and changes of climate. The aim of the present study was to restore the historical land cover changes and to simulate the meteorological consequences of these changes. Two different land cover maps for Hungary were created in vector data format using GIS technology. The land cover map for 1900 was reconstructed based on statistical data and two different historical maps: the derived map of the 3rd Military Mapping Survey of the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the Synoptic Forestry Map of the Kingdom of Hungary. The land cover map for 2000 was derived from the CORINE land cover database. Significant land cover changes were found in Hungary during the 20th century according to the examinations of these maps and statistical databases. The MM5 non-hydrostatic dynamic model was used to further evaluate the meteorological effects of these changes. The lower boundary conditions for this mesoscale model were generated for two selected time periods (for 1900 and 2000) based on the reconstructed maps. The dynamic model has been run with the same detailed meteorological conditions of selected days from 2006 and 2007, but with modified lower boundary conditions. The set of the 26 selected initial conditions represents the whole set of the macrosynoptic situations for Hungary. In this way, 2×26 "forecasts" were made with 48 hours of integration. The effects of land cover changes under different weather situations were further weighted by the long-term (1961-1990) mean frequency of the corresponding macrosynoptic types, to assume the climatic effects from these stratified averages. The detailed evaluation of the model results were made for three different meteorological variables (temperature, dew point and precipitation).

Fire history and climate characteristics during the last millennium of the Great Hinggan Mountains at the monsoon margin in northeastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Chuanyu; He, Jiabao; Zhang, Yan; Cong, Jinxin; Han, Dongxue; Wang, Guoping

2018-03-01

The northeastern region of China, at the limit of the summer monsoon, is characterized by the presence of mountains that influenced by the Asian summer monsoon on one side and the westerlies on the other; however, few studies have compared the environmental characteristics on the two sides of these mountains. In this study, two peatland cores from the western and eastern sides of the Great Hinggan Mountains were investigated to better understand the climatic and environmental conditions and the measurements of black carbon (BC) and δ13C-BC were used to reconstruct the fire history and environmental characteristics during the last millennium. Our results showed that the variations in the δ13C-BC values are more sensitive to climate changes than the BC fluxes, and the climate forcing mechanisms differed between the two sides of the mountains. Lower δ13C-BC values around 500 cal yr BP on the western side of the mountains indicated climate conditions were wetter than that on the eastern side, and were influenced by low sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean. The region east of the mountains was mainly influenced by the strong Asian summer monsoon, and the decreasing of δ13C-BC values indicated climate conditions became wetter from 250 cal yr BP to the present and were wetter than that on the western side after 150 cal yr BP. Moreover, when one of these two forcing factors weakened and the other strengthened (e.g. from 400 to 150 cal yr BP), climate conditions in these two sides were similar.

Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia.

PubMed

Naish, Suchithra; Mengersen, Kerrie; Hu, Wenbiao; Tong, Shilu

2013-01-01

Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Equilibrium and Effective Climate Sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rugenstein, M.; Bloch-Johnson, J.

2016-12-01

Atmosphere-ocean general circulation models, as well as the real world, take thousands of years to equilibrate to CO2 induced radiative perturbations. Equilibrium climate sensitivity - a fully equilibrated 2xCO2 perturbation - has been used for decades as a benchmark in model intercomparisons, as a test of our understanding of the climate system and paleo proxies, and to predict or project future climate change. Computational costs and limited time lead to the widespread practice of extrapolating equilibrium conditions from just a few decades of coupled simulations. The most common workaround is the "effective climate sensitivity" - defined through an extrapolation of a 150 year abrupt2xCO2 simulation, including the assumption of linear climate feedbacks. The definitions of effective and equilibrium climate sensitivity are often mixed up and used equivalently, and it is argued that "transient climate sensitivity" is the more relevant measure for predicting the next decades. We present an ongoing model intercomparison, the "LongRunMIP", to study century and millennia time scales of AOGCM equilibration and the linearity assumptions around feedback analysis. As a true ensemble of opportunity, there is no protocol and the only condition to participate is a coupled model simulation of any stabilizing scenario simulating more than 1000 years. Many of the submitted simulations took several years to conduct. As of July 2016 the contribution comprises 27 scenario simulations of 13 different models originating from 7 modeling centers, each between 1000 and 6000 years. To contribute, please contact the authors as soon as possible We present preliminary results, discussing differences between effective and equilibrium climate sensitivity, the usefulness of transient climate sensitivity, extrapolation methods, and the state of the coupled climate system close to equilibrium. Caption for the Figure below: Evolution of temperature anomaly and radiative imbalance of 22 simulations with 12 models (color indicates the model). 20 year moving average.

Plasticity in Dendroclimatic Response across the Distribution Range of Aleppo Pine (Pinus halepensis)

PubMed Central

de Luis, Martin; Čufar, Katarina; Di Filippo, Alfredo; Novak, Klemen; Papadopoulos, Andreas; Piovesan, Gianluca; Rathgeber, Cyrille B. K.; Raventós, José; Saz, Miguel Angel; Smith, Kevin T.

2013-01-01

We investigated the variability of the climate-growth relationship of Aleppo pine across its distribution range in the Mediterranean Basin. We constructed a network of tree-ring index chronologies from 63 sites across the region. Correlation function analysis identified the relationships of tree-ring index to climate factors for each site. We also estimated the dominant climatic gradients of the region using principal component analysis of monthly, seasonal, and annual mean temperature and total precipitation from 1,068 climatic gridpoints. Variation in ring width index was primarily related to precipitation and secondarily to temperature. However, we found that the dendroclimatic relationship depended on the position of the site along the climatic gradient. In the southern part of the distribution range, where temperature was generally higher and precipitation lower than the regional average, reduced growth was also associated with warm and dry conditions. In the northern part, where the average temperature was lower and the precipitation more abundant than the regional average, reduced growth was associated with cool conditions. Thus, our study highlights the substantial plasticity of Aleppo pine in response to different climatic conditions. These results do not resolve the source of response variability as being due to either genetic variation in provenance, to phenotypic plasticity, or a combination of factors. However, as current growth responses to inter-annual climate variability vary spatially across existing climate gradients, future climate-growth relationships will also likely be determined by differential adaptation and/or acclimation responses to spatial climatic variation. The contribution of local adaptation and/or phenotypic plasticity across populations to the persistence of species under global warming could be decisive for prediction of climate change impacts across populations. In this sense, a more complex forest dynamics modeling approach that includes the contribution of genetic variation and phenotypic plasticity can improve the reliability of the ecological inferences derived from the climate-growth relationships. PMID:24391786

Responses of Basal Melting of Antarctic Ice Shelves to the Climatic Forcing of the Last Glacial Maximum and CO2 Doubling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abe-Ouchi, A.; Obase, T.

2017-12-01

Basal melting of the Antarctic ice shelves is an important factor in determining the stability of the Antarctic ice sheet. This study used the climatic outputs of an atmosphere?ocean general circulation model to force a circumpolar ocean model that resolves ice shelf cavity circulation to investigate the response of Antarctic ice shelf melting to different climatic conditions, i.e., to an increase (doubling) of CO2 and the Last Glacial Maximum conditions. We also conducted sensitivity experiments to investigate the role of surface atmospheric change, which strongly affects sea ice production, and the change of oceanic lateral boundary conditions. We found that the rate of change of basal melt due to climate warming is much greater (by an order of magnitude) than due to cooling. This is mainly because the intrusion of warm water onto the continental shelves, linked to sea ice production and climate change, is crucial in determining the basal melt rate of many ice shelves. Sensitivity experiments showed that changes of atmospheric heat flux and ocean temperature are both important for warm and cold climates. The offshore wind change together with atmospheric heat flux change strongly affected the production of sea ice and high-density water, preventing warmer water approaching the ice shelves under a colder climate. These results reflect the importance of both water mass formation in the Antarctic shelf seas and subsurface ocean temperature in understanding the long-term response to climate change of the melting of Antarctic ice shelves.

Background sampling and transferability of species distribution model ensembles under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iturbide, Maialen; Bedia, Joaquín; Gutiérrez, José Manuel

2018-07-01

Species Distribution Models (SDMs) constitute an important tool to assist decision-making in environmental conservation and planning. A popular application of these models is the projection of species distributions under climate change conditions. Yet there are still a range of methodological SDM factors which limit the transferability of these models, contributing significantly to the overall uncertainty of the resulting projections. An important source of uncertainty often neglected in climate change studies comes from the use of background data (a.k.a. pseudo-absences) for model calibration. Here, we study the sensitivity to pseudo-absence sampling as a determinant factor for SDM stability and transferability under climate change conditions, focusing on European wide projections of Quercus robur as an illustrative case study. We explore the uncertainty in future projections derived from ten pseudo-absence realizations and three popular SDMs (GLM, Random Forest and MARS). The contribution of the pseudo-absence realization to the uncertainty was higher in peripheral regions and clearly differed among the tested SDMs in the whole study domain, being MARS the most sensitive - with projections differing up to a 40% for different realizations - and GLM the most stable. As a result we conclude that parsimonious SDMs are preferable in this context, avoiding complex methods (such as MARS) which may exhibit poor model transferability. Accounting for this new source of SDM-dependent uncertainty is crucial when forming multi-model ensembles to undertake climate change projections.

Public and Private Hospital Nurses’ Perceptions of the Ethical Climate in Their Work Settings, Sari City, 2011

PubMed Central

Ghorbani, Ali Asghar; Hesamzadeh, Ali; Khademloo, Mohammad; Khalili, Salimeh; Hesamzadeh, Shamim; Berger, Valerie

2014-01-01

Background: Nurses’ perceptions of ethical climate patterns have certain undeniable effects on hospitals. There is little evidence of possible differences in this element between public and private hospitals and contributing factors. Objectives: This study investigated whether the perceptions of the ethical climate in nurses’ working in public hospitals differ from that of nurses in private hospitals, and which factors may affect nurses’ perceptions. Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional study of randomly selected registered nurses (n = 235), working in four public hospitals affiliated to Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, and three private hospitals, was conducted in Sari City, Iran. A self-administered questionnaire, containing demographic characteristics and the Hospital Ethical Climate Survey (HECS), were used to assess registered nurses’ perceptions of public and private hospitals ethical climate. An independent t-test and one-way ANOVA were used to analyze the data. Results: Across the five factors of HECS, the highest and lowest mean scores pertained to managers and physicians, respectively, in both public and private hospitals. Nurses who had a conditional employment situation and those working in pediatric intensive care units showed significantly more positive perceptions of the ethical work climate when compared to their peers (P < 0.05). Although the mean score of ethical work climate in private hospitals (3.82 ± 0.61) was higher than that in public hospitals (3.76 ± 0.54), no significant difference was found (P = 0.44). Conclusions: Hospital managers need to discover better ways to promote safety and health programs for their staff according to nurses’ area of work and their type of units. They should also encourage greater levels of participation in safety-enhancing initiatives in the hospital’s ethical climate, especially in the areas of nurses’ perceptions of their physician colleagues, and for nurses with a conditional employment situation. PMID:25414890

Can we trust climate models to realistically represent severe European windstorms?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trzeciak, Tomasz M.; Knippertz, Peter; Pirret, Jennifer S. R.; Williams, Keith D.

2016-06-01

Cyclonic windstorms are one of the most important natural hazards for Europe, but robust climate projections of the position and the strength of the North Atlantic storm track are not yet possible, bearing significant risks to European societies and the (re)insurance industry. Previous studies addressing the problem of climate model uncertainty through statistical comparisons of simulations of the current climate with (re-)analysis data show large disagreement between different climate models, different ensemble members of the same model and observed climatologies of intense cyclones. One weakness of such evaluations lies in the difficulty to separate influences of the climate model's basic state from the influence of fast processes on the development of the most intense storms, which could create compensating effects and therefore suggest higher reliability than there really is. This work aims to shed new light into this problem through a cost-effective "seamless" approach of hindcasting 20 historical severe storms with the two global climate models, ECHAM6 and GA4 configuration of the Met Office Unified Model, run in a numerical weather prediction mode using different lead times, and horizontal and vertical resolutions. These runs are then compared to re-analysis data. The main conclusions from this work are: (a) objectively identified cyclone tracks are represented satisfactorily by most hindcasts; (b) sensitivity to vertical resolution is low; (c) cyclone depth is systematically under-predicted for a coarse resolution of T63 by both climate models; (d) no systematic bias is found for the higher resolution of T127 out to about three days, demonstrating that climate models are in fact able to represent the complex dynamics of explosively deepening cyclones well, if given the correct initial conditions; (e) an analysis using a recently developed diagnostic tool based on the surface pressure tendency equation points to too weak diabatic processes, mainly latent heating, as the main source for the under-prediction in the coarse-resolution runs. Finally, an interesting implication of these results is that the too low number of deep cyclones in many free-running climate simulations may therefore be related to an insufficient number of storm-prone initial conditions. This question will be addressed in future work.

Broad-Scale Patterns of Late Jurassic Dinosaur Paleoecology

PubMed Central

Noto, Christopher R.; Grossman, Ari

2010-01-01

Background There have been numerous studies on dinosaur biogeographic distribution patterns. However, these distribution data have not yet been applied to ecological questions. Ecological studies of dinosaurs have tended to focus on reconstructing individual taxa, usually through comparisons to modern analogs. Fewer studies have sought to determine if the ecological structure of fossil assemblages is preserved and, if so, how dinosaur communities varied. Climate is a major component driving differences between communities. If the ecological structure of a fossil locality is preserved, we expect that dinosaur assemblages from similar environments will share a similar ecological structure. Methodology/Principal Findings This study applies Ecological Structure Analysis (ESA) to a dataset of 100+ dinosaur taxa arranged into twelve composite fossil assemblages from around the world. Each assemblage was assigned a climate zone (biome) based on its location. Dinosaur taxa were placed into ecomorphological categories. The proportion of each category creates an ecological profile for the assemblage, which were compared using cluster and principal components analyses. Assemblages grouped according to biome, with most coming from arid or semi-arid/seasonal climates. Differences between assemblages are tied to the proportion of large high-browsing vs. small ground-foraging herbivores, which separates arid from semi-arid and moister environments, respectively. However, the effects of historical, taphonomic, and other environmental factors are still evident. Conclusions/Significance This study is the first to show that the general ecological structure of Late Jurassic dinosaur assemblages is preserved at large scales and can be assessed quantitatively. Despite a broad similarity of climatic conditions, a degree of ecological variation is observed between assemblages, from arid to moist. Taxonomic differences between Asia and the other regions demonstrate at least one case of ecosystem convergence. The proportion of different ecomorphs, which reflects the prevailing climatic and environmental conditions present during fossil deposition, may therefore be used to differentiate Late Jurassic dinosaur fossil assemblages. This method is broadly applicable to different taxa and times, allowing one to address questions of evolutionary, biogeographic, and climatic importance. PMID:20838442

Broad-scale patterns of late jurassic dinosaur paleoecology.

PubMed

Noto, Christopher R; Grossman, Ari

2010-09-03

There have been numerous studies on dinosaur biogeographic distribution patterns. However, these distribution data have not yet been applied to ecological questions. Ecological studies of dinosaurs have tended to focus on reconstructing individual taxa, usually through comparisons to modern analogs. Fewer studies have sought to determine if the ecological structure of fossil assemblages is preserved and, if so, how dinosaur communities varied. Climate is a major component driving differences between communities. If the ecological structure of a fossil locality is preserved, we expect that dinosaur assemblages from similar environments will share a similar ecological structure. This study applies Ecological Structure Analysis (ESA) to a dataset of 100+ dinosaur taxa arranged into twelve composite fossil assemblages from around the world. Each assemblage was assigned a climate zone (biome) based on its location. Dinosaur taxa were placed into ecomorphological categories. The proportion of each category creates an ecological profile for the assemblage, which were compared using cluster and principal components analyses. Assemblages grouped according to biome, with most coming from arid or semi-arid/seasonal climates. Differences between assemblages are tied to the proportion of large high-browsing vs. small ground-foraging herbivores, which separates arid from semi-arid and moister environments, respectively. However, the effects of historical, taphonomic, and other environmental factors are still evident. This study is the first to show that the general ecological structure of Late Jurassic dinosaur assemblages is preserved at large scales and can be assessed quantitatively. Despite a broad similarity of climatic conditions, a degree of ecological variation is observed between assemblages, from arid to moist. Taxonomic differences between Asia and the other regions demonstrate at least one case of ecosystem convergence. The proportion of different ecomorphs, which reflects the prevailing climatic and environmental conditions present during fossil deposition, may therefore be used to differentiate Late Jurassic dinosaur fossil assemblages. This method is broadly applicable to different taxa and times, allowing one to address questions of evolutionary, biogeographic, and climatic importance.

Spatial analysis of plague in California: niche modeling predictions of the current distribution and potential response to climate change

PubMed Central

Holt, Ashley C; Salkeld, Daniel J; Fritz, Curtis L; Tucker, James R; Gong, Peng

2009-01-01

Background Plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, is a public and wildlife health concern in California and the western United States. This study explores the spatial characteristics of positive plague samples in California and tests Maxent, a machine-learning method that can be used to develop niche-based models from presence-only data, for mapping the potential distribution of plague foci. Maxent models were constructed using geocoded seroprevalence data from surveillance of California ground squirrels (Spermophilus beecheyi) as case points and Worldclim bioclimatic data as predictor variables, and compared and validated using area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) statistics. Additionally, model results were compared to locations of positive and negative coyote (Canis latrans) samples, in order to determine the correlation between Maxent model predictions and areas of plague risk as determined via wild carnivore surveillance. Results Models of plague activity in California ground squirrels, based on recent climate conditions, accurately identified case locations (AUC of 0.913 to 0.948) and were significantly correlated with coyote samples. The final models were used to identify potential plague risk areas based on an ensemble of six future climate scenarios. These models suggest that by 2050, climate conditions may reduce plague risk in the southern parts of California and increase risk along the northern coast and Sierras. Conclusion Because different modeling approaches can yield substantially different results, care should be taken when interpreting future model predictions. Nonetheless, niche modeling can be a useful tool for exploring and mapping the potential response of plague activity to climate change. The final models in this study were used to identify potential plague risk areas based on an ensemble of six future climate scenarios, which can help public managers decide where to allocate surveillance resources. In addition, Maxent model results were significantly correlated with coyote samples, indicating that carnivore surveillance programs will continue to be important for tracking the response of plague to future climate conditions. PMID:19558717

Biological and physical factors controlling aggregate stability under different climatic conditions in Southern Spain.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ángel Gabarrón-Galeote, Miguel; Damián Ruiz-Sinoga, Jose; Francisco Martinez-Murillo, Juan; Lavee, Hanoch

2013-04-01

Soil aggregation is a key factor determining the soil structure. The presence of stable aggregates is essential to maintain a good soil structure, that in turn plays an important role in sustaining agricultural productivity and preserving environmental quality. A wide range of physical and biological soil components are involved in the aggregate formation and stabilization, namely clay mineral content; the quantity and quality of organic matter, that can be derived from plants, fungal hyphae, microorganism and soil animals; and the soil water content. Climatic conditions, through their effect on soil water content, vegetation cover and organic matter content, are supposed to affect soil aggregation. Thus the main objective of this research is to analyse the effect of organic matter, clay content and soil water content on aggregate stability along a climatic transect in Southern Spain. This study was conducted in four catchments along a pluviometric gradient in the South of Spain (rainfall depth decreases from west to east from more than 1000 mm year-1 to less than 300 mm year-1) and was based on a methodology approximating the climatic gradient in Mediterranean conditions. The selected sites shared similar conditions of geology, topography and soil use, which allowed making comparisons among them and relating the differences to the pluviometric conditions. In February 2007, 250 disturbed and undisturbed samples from the first 5cm of the soil were collected along the transect. We measured the aggregate stability, organic matter, clay content and bulk density of every sample. In the field we measured rainfall, air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, wind direction, solar radiation, potential evapotranspiration, soil water content, vegetation cover and presence of litter. Our results suggest that aggregate stability is a property determined by a great number of highly variable factors, which can make extremely difficult to predict its behavior taking in account only a few of them. The climate exerted a great influence in aggregate stability and could determine by itself the soil structure along the climate transect. As a result, properties unrelated in a specific point of the climate transect became highly associated if we took it into account completely. Along the climate transect analyzed could be defined two areas, separated by a threshold located between 573.6 mm y-1 and 335.9 mm y-1. In the wettest part soil structure was mainly determined by biotic factors and in the driest part was highly probable that abiotic factors play a key role determining aggregate stability.

Robust changes in the socio-climate risk over CONUS by mid 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashfaq, M.; Rastogi, D.; Batibeniz, F.; Alifa, M.; Pagán, B. R.; Bonds, B. W.; Pal, J. S.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Preston, B. L.

2017-12-01

Using high-resolution near-term ensemble projections of hydro-climatic changes, we investigate impacts of climate change on natural and human systems across the CONUS. Climate projections are based a hybrid downscaling approach where a combination of regional and hydrological models are used to downscales 11 Global Climate Models from the 5th phase of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project to 4km horizontal grid spacing for 41 years in the historical period (1965-2005) and 41 years in the near-term future period (2010-2050) under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Should emissions continue to rise, climatic changes will likely intensify the regional hydrological cycle over CONUS through the acceleration of the historical trends in cold, warm and wet extremes. Our results show robust changes in the occurrence of severe weather conditions and in the likelihood of ice, freezing rain and snowstorms that may have disruptive impact on large human population across the U.S. More summer like conditions will also drive increase in cooling demands and a net increase in the energy consumption over many regions. We further use an integrated vulnerability index that combines human exposure to different climate extremes (hot, cold, wet and dry) and changes in socioeconomic pathways (due to changes in population and income levels), to reveal that future exposure to potentially damaging climatic conditions will likely increase manifold for population living in major urban centers in California, Texas, Florida, Michigan, Illinois and Northeast. With the current trajectory of emissions, these results warrant that a large human population across the U.S. may feel the impacts of climate change within its lifespan.

Potential changes in forest composition could reduce impacts of climate change on boreal wildfires.

PubMed

Terrier, Aurélie; Girardin, Martin P; Périé, Catherine; Legendre, Pierre; Bergeron, Yves

2013-01-01

There is general consensus that wildfires in boreal forests will increase throughout this century in response to more severe and frequent drought conditions induced by climate change. However, prediction models generally assume that the vegetation component will remain static over the next few decades. As deciduous species are less flammable than conifer species, it is reasonable to believe that a potential expansion of deciduous species in boreal forests, either occurring naturally or through landscape management, could offset some of the impacts of climate change on the occurrence of boreal wildfires. The objective of this study was to determine the potential of this offsetting effect through a simulation experiment conducted in eastern boreal North America. Predictions of future fire activity were made using multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) with fire behavior indices and ecological niche models as predictor variables so as to take into account the effects of changing climate and tree distribution on fire activity. A regional climate model (RCM) was used for predictions of future fire risk conditions. The experiment was conducted under two tree dispersal scenarios: the status quo scenario, in which the distribution of forest types does not differ from the present one, and the unlimited dispersal scenario, which allows forest types to expand their range to fully occupy their climatic niche. Our results show that future warming will create climate conditions that are more prone to fire occurrence. However, unlimited dispersal of southern restricted deciduous species could reduce the impact of climate change on future fire occurrence. Hence, the use of deciduous species could be a good option for an efficient strategic fire mitigation strategy aimed at reducing fire Propagation in coniferous landscapes and increasing public safety in remote populated areas of eastern boreal Canada under climate change.

Assessing the effects of climate change on aquatic invasive species.

PubMed

Rahel, Frank J; Olden, Julian D

2008-06-01

Different components of global environmental change are typically studied and managed independently, although there is a growing recognition that multiple drivers often interact in complex and nonadditive ways. We present a conceptual framework and empirical review of the interactive effects of climate change and invasive species in freshwater ecosystems. Climate change is expected to result in warmer water temperatures, shorter duration of ice cover, altered streamflow patterns, increased salinization, and increased demand for water storage and conveyance structures. These changes will alter the pathways by which non-native species enter aquatic systems by expanding fish-culture facilities and water gardens to new areas and by facilitating the spread of species during floods. Climate change will influence the likelihood of new species becoming established by eliminating cold temperatures or winter hypoxia that currently prevent survival and by increasing the construction of reservoirs that serve as hotspots for invasive species. Climate change will modify the ecological impacts of invasive species by enhancing their competitive and predatory effects on native species and by increasing the virulence of some diseases. As a result of climate change, new prevention and control strategies such as barrier construction or removal efforts may be needed to control invasive species that currently have only moderate effects or that are limited by seasonally unfavorable conditions. Although most researchers focus on how climate change will increase the number and severity of invasions, some invasive coldwater species may be unable to persist under the new climate conditions. Our findings highlight the complex interactions between climate change and invasive species that will influence how aquatic ecosystems and their biota will respond to novel environmental conditions.

Ice-cover is the principal driver of ecological change in High Arctic lakes and ponds.

PubMed

Griffiths, Katherine; Michelutti, Neal; Sugar, Madeline; Douglas, Marianne S V; Smol, John P

2017-01-01

Recent climate change has been especially pronounced in the High Arctic, however, the responses of aquatic biota, such as diatoms, can be modified by site-specific environmental characteristics. To assess if climate-mediated ice cover changes affect the diatom response to climate, we used paleolimnological techniques to examine shifts in diatom assemblages from ten High Arctic lakes and ponds from Ellesmere Island and nearby Pim Island (Nunavut, Canada). The sites were divided a priori into four groups ("warm", "cool", "cold", and "oasis") based on local elevation and microclimatic differences that result in differing lengths of the ice-free season, as well as about three decades of personal observations. We characterized the species changes as a shift from Condition 1 (i.e. a generally low diversity, predominantly epipelic and epilithic diatom assemblage) to Condition 2 (i.e. a typically more diverse and ecologically complex assemblage with an increasing proportion of epiphytic species). This shift from Condition 1 to Condition 2 was a consistent pattern recorded across the sites that experienced a change in ice cover with warming. The "warm" sites are amongst the first to lose their ice covers in summer and recorded the earliest and highest magnitude changes. The "cool" sites also exhibited a shift from Condition 1 to Condition 2, but, as predicted, the timing of the response lagged the "warm" sites. Meanwhile some of the "cold" sites, which until recently still retained an ice raft in summer, only exhibited this shift in the upper-most sediments. The warmer "oasis" ponds likely supported aquatic vegetation throughout their records. Consequently, the diatoms of the "oasis" sites were characterized as high-diversity, Condition 2 assemblages throughout the record. Our results support the hypothesis that the length of the ice-free season is the principal driver of diatom assemblage responses to climate in the High Arctic, largely driven by the establishment of new aquatic habitats, resulting in increased diversity and the emergence of novel growth forms and epiphytic species.

Agricultural Practice and Regional Climate Interactions in a Coupled Land Surface Mesoscale Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooley, H. S.; Riley, W. J.; Torn, M. S.

2003-12-01

Regional climate affects the timing of harvest for rain-fed crops. In response to dry conditions, for example, farmers may harvest crops earlier than they do under wet conditions. This removal of vegetation alters the land surface characteristics and may, in turn, affect regional climate conditions. We studied the dynamic relationship between land use practice, i.e. winter wheat harvest, and regional climate by applying a coupled climate (MM5) and land-surface (LSM1) model to the ARM-CART region of the Southern Great Plains. We compared early and late harvest scenarios, with winter wheat harvested on June 5 and July 5, respectively. Winter wheat is grown in a fairly uniform belt that accounts for 20% of the total land area over the domain of the ARM-CART. Results showed that harvest dramatically affects energy, momentum, and water fluxes. Regionally-averaged, 2 m air temperatures were 0.5-1\\deg C warmer in the early- compared to late-harvest case, with peak warming of 5\\deg C centered over the harvested area. Soils in the harvested area were drier and warmer in the top 10 cm. Near-surface soil water-filled pore space was reduced by 7% across the region, with a peak drying of 22% centered over the harvested area. Soils were up to 10\\deg C warmer, with area-averaged warming of ~0.6\\deg C at mid-day two weeks after harvest. Differences between scenarios were greatest during an initial two-week dry period. A subsequent wet period greatly reduced these differences.

The variability of runoff and soil erosion in the Brazilian Cerrado biome due to the potential land use and climate changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexandre Ayach Anache, Jamil; Wendland, Edson; Malacarne Pinheiro Rosalem, Lívia; Srivastava, Anurag; Flanagan, Dennis

2017-04-01

Changes in land use and climate can influence runoff and soil loss, threatening soil and water conservation in the Cerrado biome in Brazil. Due to the lack of long term observed data for runoff and soil erosion in Brazil, the adoption of a process-based model was necessary, representing the variability of both variables in a continuous simulation approach. Thus, we aimed to calibrate WEPP (Water Erosion Prediction Project) model for different land uses (undisturbed Cerrado, fallow, pasture, and sugarcane) under subtropical conditions inside the Cerrado biome; predict runoff and soil erosion for these different land uses; and simulate runoff and soil erosion considering climate change scenarios. We performed the model calibration using a 4-year dataset of observed runoff and soil loss in four different land uses (undisturbed Cerrado, fallow, pasture, and sugarcane). The WEPP model components (climate, topography, soil, and management) were calibrated according to field data. However, soil and management were optimized according to each land use using a parameter estimation tool. The observations were conducted between 2012 and 2015 in experimental plots (5 m width, 20 m length, 9% slope gradient, 3 replicates per treatment). The simulations were done using the calibrated WEPP model components, but changing the 4-year observed climate file by a 100-year dataset created with CLIGEN (weather generator) based on regional climate statistics. Afterwards, using MarkSim DSSAT Weather File Generator, runoff and soil loss were simulated using future climate scenarios for 2030, 2060, and 2090. To analyze the data, we used non-parametric statistics as data do not follow normal distribution. The results show that WEPP model had an acceptable performance for the considered conditions. In addition, both land use and climate can influence on runoff and soil loss rates. Potential climate changes which consider the increase of rainfall intensities and depths in the studied region may increase the variability and rates for runoff and soil erosion. However, the climate did not change the differences and similarities between the rates of the four analyzed land uses. The runoff behavior is distinct for all land uses, but for soil loss we found similarities between pasture and undisturbed Cerrado, suggesting that soil sustainability could be reached when the management follows conservation principles.

Relationships between Spontaneous Note-Taking, Self-Reported Strategies and Comprehension When Reading Multiple Texts in Different Task Conditions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hagen, Åste M.; Braasch, Jason L. G.; Bråten, Ivar

2014-01-01

This study investigated note-taking during multiple-text reading across two different task conditions in relation to comprehension performance and self-reports of strategy use. Forty-four undergraduates read multiple texts about climate change to write an argument or a summary. Analysis of students' spontaneous note-taking during reading…

Community shifts under climate change: mechanisms at multiple scales.

PubMed

Gornish, Elise S; Tylianakis, Jason M

2013-07-01

Processes that drive ecological dynamics differ across spatial scales. Therefore, the pathways through which plant communities and plant-insect relationships respond to changing environmental conditions are also expected to be scale-dependent. Furthermore, the processes that affect individual species or interactions at single sites may differ from those affecting communities across multiple sites. We reviewed and synthesized peer-reviewed literature to identify patterns in biotic or abiotic pathways underpinning changes in the composition and diversity of plant communities under three components of climate change (increasing temperature, CO2, and changes in precipitation) and how these differ across spatial scales. We also explored how these changes to plants affect plant-insect interactions. The relative frequency of biotic vs. abiotic pathways of climate effects at larger spatial scales often differ from those at smaller scales. Local-scale studies show variable responses to climate drivers, often driven by biotic factors. However, larger scale studies identify changes to species composition and/or reduced diversity as a result of abiotic factors. Differing pathways of climate effects can result from different responses of multiple species, habitat effects, and differing effects of invasions at local vs. regional to global scales. Plant community changes can affect higher trophic levels as a result of spatial or phenological mismatch, foliar quality changes, and plant abundance changes, though studies on plant-insect interactions at larger scales are rare. Climate-induced changes to plant communities will have considerable effects on community-scale trophic exchanges, which may differ from the responses of individual species or pairwise interactions.

Regional climate projection of the Maritime Continent using the MIT Regional Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

IM, E. S.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

2014-12-01

Given that warming of the climate system is unequivocal (IPCC AR5), accurate assessment of future climate is essential to understand the impact of climate change due to global warming. Modelling the climate change of the Maritime Continent is particularly challenge, showing a high degree of uncertainty. Compared to other regions, model agreement of future projections in response to anthropogenic emission forcings is much less. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal behaviors of climate projections seem to vary significantly due to a complex geographical condition and a wide range of scale interactions. For the fine-scale climate information (27 km) suitable for representing the complexity of climate change over the Maritime Continent, dynamical downscaling is performed using the MIT regional climate model (MRCM) during two thirty-year period for reference (1970-1999) and future (2070-2099) climate. Initial and boundary conditions are provided by Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations under the emission scenarios projected by MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM). Changes in mean climate as well as the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events are investigated at various temporal and spatial scales. Our analysis is primarily centered on the different behavior of changes in convective and large-scale precipitation over land vs. ocean during dry vs. wet season. In addition, we attempt to find the added value to downscaled results over the Maritime Continent through the comparison between MRCM and CESM projection. Acknowledgements.This research was supported by the National Research Foundation Singapore through the Singapore MIT Alliance for Research and Technology's Center for Environmental Sensing and Modeling interdisciplinary research program.

Regional climate projections for the MENA-CORDEX domain: analysis of projected temperature and precipitation changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hänsler, Andreas; Weber, Torsten; Eggert, Bastian; Saeed, Fahad; Jacob, Daniela

2014-05-01

Within the CORDEX initiative a multi-model suite of regionalized climate change information will be made available for several regions of the world. The German Climate Service Center (CSC) is taking part in this initiative by applying the regional climate model REMO to downscale global climate projections of different coupled general circulation models (GCMs) for several CORDEX domains. Also for the MENA-CORDEX domain, a set of regional climate change projections has been established at the CSC by downscaling CMIP5 projections of the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) for the scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 with the regional model REMO for the time period from 1950 to 2100 to a horizontal resolution of 0.44 degree. In this study we investigate projected changes in future climate conditions over the domain towards the end of the 21st century. Focus in the analysis is given to projected changes in the temperature and rainfall characteristics and their differences for the two scenarios will be highlighted.

CO2 flux studies of different hemiboreal forest ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krasnova, Alisa; Krasnov, Dmitrii; Noe, Steffen M.; Uri, Veiko; Mander, Ülo; Niinemets, Ülo; Soosaar, Kaido

2017-04-01

Hemiboreal zone is a transition between boreal and temperate zones characterized by the combination of climatic and edaphic conditions inherent in both zones. Hemiboreal forests are typically presented by mixed forests types with different ratios of deciduous and conifer tree species. Dominating tree species composition affects the functioning of forest ecosystem and its influence on biogeochemical cycles. We present the result of ecosystem scale CO2 eddy-covariance fluxes research conducted in 4 ecosystems (3 forests sites and 1 clear-cut area) of hemiboreal zone in Estonia. All 4 sites were developing under similar climatic conditions, but different forest management practices resulted in different composition of dominating tree species: pine forest with spruce trees as a second layer (Soontaga site); spruce/birch forest with single alder trees (Liispõllu site); forest presented by sectors of pine, spruce, birch and clearcut areas (SMEAR Estonia site); 5-years old clearcut area (Kõnnu site).

Projected wetland densities under climate change: habitat loss but little geographic shift in conservation strategy.

PubMed

Sofaer, Helen R; Skagen, Susan K; Barsugli, Joseph J; Rashford, Benjamin S; Reese, Gordon C; Hoeting, Jennifer A; Wood, Andrew W; Noon, Barry R

2016-09-01

Climate change poses major challenges for conservation and management because it alters the area, quality, and spatial distribution of habitat for natural populations. To assess species' vulnerability to climate change and target ongoing conservation investments, researchers and managers often consider the effects of projected changes in climate and land use on future habitat availability and quality and the uncertainty associated with these projections. Here, we draw on tools from hydrology and climate science to project the impact of climate change on the density of wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of the USA, a critical area for breeding waterfowl and other wetland-dependent species. We evaluate the potential for a trade-off in the value of conservation investments under current and future climatic conditions and consider the joint effects of climate and land use. We use an integrated set of hydrological and climatological projections that provide physically based measures of water balance under historical and projected future climatic conditions. In addition, we use historical projections derived from ten general circulation models (GCMs) as a baseline from which to assess climate change impacts, rather than historical climate data. This method isolates the impact of greenhouse gas emissions and ensures that modeling errors are incorporated into the baseline rather than attributed to climate change. Our work shows that, on average, densities of wetlands (here defined as wetland basins holding water) are projected to decline across the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region, but that GCMs differ in both the magnitude and the direction of projected impacts. However, we found little evidence for a shift in the locations expected to provide the highest wetland densities under current vs. projected climatic conditions. This result was robust to the inclusion of projected changes in land use under climate change. We suggest that targeting conservation towards wetland complexes containing both small and relatively large wetland basins, which is an ongoing conservation strategy, may also act to hedge against uncertainty in the effects of climate change. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Assessing forest vulnerability and the potential distribution of pine beetles under current and future climate scenarios in the Interior West of the US

USGS Publications Warehouse

Evangelista, P.H.; Kumar, S.; Stohlgren, T.J.; Young, N.E.

2011-01-01

The aim of our study was to estimate forest vulnerability and potential distribution of three bark beetles (Curculionidae: Scolytinae) under current and projected climate conditions for 2020 and 2050. Our study focused on the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), western pine beetle (Dendroctonus brevicomis), and pine engraver (Ips pini). This study was conducted across eight states in the Interior West of the US covering approximately 2.2millionkm2 and encompassing about 95% of the Rocky Mountains in the contiguous US. Our analyses relied on aerial surveys of bark beetle outbreaks that occurred between 1991 and 2008. Occurrence points for each species were generated within polygons created from the aerial surveys. Current and projected climate scenarios were acquired from the WorldClim database and represented by 19 bioclimatic variables. We used Maxent modeling technique fit with occurrence points and current climate data to model potential beetle distributions and forest vulnerability. Three available climate models, each having two emission scenarios, were modeled independently and results averaged to produce two predictions for 2020 and two predictions for 2050 for each analysis. Environmental parameters defined by current climate models were then used to predict conditions under future climate scenarios, and changes in different species' ranges were calculated. Our results suggested that the potential distribution for bark beetles under current climate conditions is extensive, which coincides with infestation trends observed in the last decade. Our results predicted that suitable habitats for the mountain pine beetle and pine engraver beetle will stabilize or decrease under future climate conditions, while habitat for the western pine beetle will continue to increase over time. The greatest increase in habitat area was for the western pine beetle, where one climate model predicted a 27% increase by 2050. In contrast, the predicted habitat of the mountain pine beetle from another climate model suggested a decrease in habitat areas as great as 46% by 2050. Generally, 2020 and 2050 models that tested the three climate scenarios independently had similar trends, though one climate scenario for the western pine beetle produced contrasting results. Ranges for all three species of bark beetles shifted considerably geographically suggesting that some host species may become more vulnerable to beetle attack in the future, while others may have a reduced risk over time. ?? 2011 Elsevier B.V.

Sensitivity of Seawater Oxygen Isotopes to Climatic and Tectonic Boundary Conditions in an Early Paleogene Simulation with GISS ModelE-R

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roberts, Christopher D.; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Tripati, Aradhna K.

2011-01-01

An isotope-enabled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (GISS ModelE -R) is used to estimate the spatial gradients of the oxygen isotopic composition of seawater (delta O-18(sub sw), where delta is the deviation from a known reference material in per mil) during the early Paleogene (45.65 Ma). Understanding the response of delta O-18(sub sw) to changes in climatic and tectonic boundary conditions is important because records of carbonate delta O-18 document changes in hydrology, as well as changes in temperature and global ice -volume. We present results from an early Paleogene configuration of ModelE -R which indicate that spatial gradients of surface ocean delta O-18(sub sw) during this period could have been significantly different to those in the modern ocean. The differences inferred from ModelE -R are sufficient to change early Paleogene sea surface temperature estimates derived from primary carbonate delta O-18 signatures by more than +/-2 C in large areas of the ocean. In the North Atlantic, Indian, and Southern Oceans, the differences in d18Osw inferred from our simulation with ModelE -R are in direct contrast with those from another d18O ]tracing model study which used different, but equally plausible, early Paleogene boundary conditions. The large differences in delta O-18(sub sw) between preindustrial and early Paleogene simulations, and between models, emphasizes the sensitivity of d18Osw to climatic and tectonic boundary conditions. For this reason, absolute estimates of Eocene/ Paleocene temperature derived from carbonate delta O-18 alone are likely to have larger uncertainties than are usually assumed.

Potential Distribution Predicted for Rhynchophorus ferrugineus in China under Different Climate Warming Scenarios.

PubMed

Ge, Xuezhen; He, Shanyong; Wang, Tao; Yan, Wei; Zong, Shixiang

2015-01-01

As the primary pest of palm trees, Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) has caused serious harm to palms since it first invaded China. The present study used CLIMEX 1.1 to predict the potential distribution of R. ferrugineus in China according to both current climate data (1981-2010) and future climate warming estimates based on simulated climate data for the 2020s (2011-2040) provided by the Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research (TYN SC 2.0). Additionally, the Ecoclimatic Index (EI) values calculated for different climatic conditions (current and future, as simulated by the B2 scenario) were compared. Areas with a suitable climate for R. ferrugineus distribution were located primarily in central China according to the current climate data, with the northern boundary of the distribution reaching to 40.1°N and including Tibet, north Sichuan, central Shaanxi, south Shanxi, and east Hebei. There was little difference in the potential distribution predicted by the four emission scenarios according to future climate warming estimates. The primary prediction under future climate warming models was that, compared with the current climate model, the number of highly favorable habitats would increase significantly and expand into northern China, whereas the number of both favorable and marginally favorable habitats would decrease. Contrast analysis of EI values suggested that climate change and the density of site distribution were the main effectors of the changes in EI values. These results will help to improve control measures, prevent the spread of this pest, and revise the targeted quarantine areas.

Potential Distribution Predicted for Rhynchophorus ferrugineus in China under Different Climate Warming Scenarios

PubMed Central

Ge, Xuezhen; He, Shanyong; Wang, Tao; Yan, Wei; Zong, Shixiang

2015-01-01

As the primary pest of palm trees, Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) has caused serious harm to palms since it first invaded China. The present study used CLIMEX 1.1 to predict the potential distribution of R. ferrugineus in China according to both current climate data (1981–2010) and future climate warming estimates based on simulated climate data for the 2020s (2011–2040) provided by the Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research (TYN SC 2.0). Additionally, the Ecoclimatic Index (EI) values calculated for different climatic conditions (current and future, as simulated by the B2 scenario) were compared. Areas with a suitable climate for R. ferrugineus distribution were located primarily in central China according to the current climate data, with the northern boundary of the distribution reaching to 40.1°N and including Tibet, north Sichuan, central Shaanxi, south Shanxi, and east Hebei. There was little difference in the potential distribution predicted by the four emission scenarios according to future climate warming estimates. The primary prediction under future climate warming models was that, compared with the current climate model, the number of highly favorable habitats would increase significantly and expand into northern China, whereas the number of both favorable and marginally favorable habitats would decrease. Contrast analysis of EI values suggested that climate change and the density of site distribution were the main effectors of the changes in EI values. These results will help to improve control measures, prevent the spread of this pest, and revise the targeted quarantine areas. PMID:26496438

Human presence diminishes the importance of climate in driving fire activity across the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Syphard, Alexandra D.; Keeley, Jon E.; Pfaff, Anne Hopkins; Ferschweiler, Ken

2017-01-01

Growing human and ecological costs due to increasing wildfire are an urgent concern in policy and management, particularly given projections of worsening fire conditions under climate change. Thus, understanding the relationship between climatic variation and fire activity is a critically important scientific question. Different factors limit fire behavior in different places and times, but most fire-climate analyses are conducted across broad spatial extents that mask geographical variation. This could result in overly broad or inappropriate management and policy decisions that neglect to account for regionally specific or other important factors driving fire activity. We developed statistical models relating seasonal temperature and precipitation variables to historical annual fire activity for 37 different regions across the continental United States and asked whether and how fire-climate relationships vary geographically, and why climate is more important in some regions than in others. Climatic variation played a significant role in explaining annual fire activity in some regions, but the relative importance of seasonal temperature or precipitation, in addition to the overall importance of climate, varied substantially depending on geographical context. Human presence was the primary reason that climate explained less fire activity in some regions than in others. That is, where human presence was more prominent, climate was less important. This means that humans may not only influence fire regimes but their presence can actually override, or swamp out, the effect of climate. Thus, geographical context as well as human influence should be considered alongside climate in national wildfire policy and management.

Simulating infectious disease risk based on climatic drivers: from numerical weather prediction to long term climate change scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caminade, C.; Ndione, J. A.; Diallo, M.; MacLeod, D.; Faye, O.; Ba, Y.; Dia, I.; Medlock, J. M.; Leach, S.; McIntyre, K. M.; Baylis, M.; Morse, A. P.

2012-04-01

Climate variability is an important component in determining the incidence of a number of diseases with significant health and socioeconomic impacts. In particular, vector born diseases are the most likely to be affected by climate; directly via the development rates and survival of both the pathogen and the vector, and indirectly through changes in the surrounding environmental conditions. Disease risk models of various complexities using different streams of climate forecasts as inputs have been developed within the QWeCI EU and ENHanCE ERA-NET project frameworks. This work will present two application examples, one for Africa and one for Europe. First, we focus on Rift Valley fever over sub-Saharan Africa, a zoonosis that affects domestic animals and humans by causing an acute fever. We show that the Rift Valley fever outbreak that occurred in late 2010 in the northern Sahelian region of Mauritania might have been anticipated ten days in advance using the GFS numerical weather prediction system. Then, an ensemble of regional climate projections is employed to model the climatic suitability of the Asian tiger mosquito for the future over Europe. The Asian tiger mosquito is an invasive species originally from Asia which is able to transmit West Nile and Chikungunya Fever among others. This species has spread worldwide during the last decades, mainly through the shipments of goods from Asia. Different disease models are employed and inter-compared to achieve such a task. Results show that the climatic conditions over southern England, central Western Europe and the Balkans might become more suitable for the mosquito (including the proviso that the mosquito has already been introduced) to establish itself in the future.

Estimation of the tourism climate in the Hunter Region, Australia, in the early twenty-first century.

PubMed

Shiue, Ivy; Matzarakis, Andreas

2011-07-01

Existing tourism-related climate information and evaluation are typically based on mean monthly conditions of air temperature and precipitation and do not include thermal perception and other climate parameters relevant for tourists. Here, we quantify climate based on the climate facets relevant to tourism (thermal, physical, aesthetical), and apply the results to the Climate-Tourism-Information-Scheme (CTIS). This paper presents bioclimatic and tourism climatological conditions in the Hunter Region-one of Australia's most popular tourist destinations. In the Hunter Region, generally, temperatures below 15°C occur from April through October, temperatures less than 25°C are expected throughout the whole year, while humidity sits around 50%. As expected, large differences between air temperature and physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) were clearly identified. The widest differences were seen in summer time rather than in the winter period. In addition, cold stress was observed less than 10% of the time in winter while around 40-60% of heat stress was observed in summer time. This correlates with the highest numbers of international visitors, who usually seek a warmer weather, at the beginning of summer time (November and December) and also to the number of domestic visitors, who tend to seek cooler places for recreation and leisure, in late summer (January-March). It was concluded that thermal bioclimate assessment such as PET and CTIS can be applied in the Hunter region, and that local governments and the tourism industry should take an integrated approach to providing more relevant weather and climate information for both domestic and international tourists in the near future.

Experimental Climate Change Modifies Degradative Succession in Boreal Peatland Fungal Communities.

PubMed

Asemaninejad, Asma; Thorn, R Greg; Lindo, Zoë

2017-04-01

Peatlands play an important role in global climate change through sequestration of atmospheric CO 2 . Climate-driven changes in the structure of fungal communities in boreal peatlands that favor saprotrophic fungi can substantially impact carbon dynamics and nutrient cycling in these crucial ecosystems. In a mesocosm study using a full factorial design, 100 intact peat monoliths, complete with living Sphagnum and above-ground vascular vegetation, were subjected to three climate change variables (increased temperature, reduced water table, and elevated CO 2 concentrations). Peat litterbags were placed in mesocosms, and fungal communities in litterbags were monitored over 12 months to assess the impacts of climate change variables on peat-inhabiting fungi. Changes in fungal richness, diversity, and community composition were assessed using Illumina MiSeq sequencing of ribosomal DNA (rDNA). While general fungal richness reduced under warming conditions, Ascomycota exhibited higher diversity under increased temperature treatments over the course of the experiment. Both increased temperature and lowered water table position drove shifts in fungal community composition with a strong positive effect on endophytic and mycorrhizal fungi (including one operational taxonomic unit (OTU) tentatively identified as Barrenia panicia) and different groups of saprotrophs identified as Mortierella, Galerina, and Mycena. These shifts were observed during a predicted degradative succession in the decomposer community as different carbon substrates became available. Since fungi play a central role in peatland communities, increased abundances of saprotrophic fungi under warming conditions, at the expense of reduced fungal richness overall, may increase decomposition rates under future climate scenarios and could potentially aggravate the impacts of climate change.

Estimation of the tourism climate in the Hunter Region, Australia, in the early twenty-first century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shiue, Ivy; Matzarakis, Andreas

2011-07-01

Existing tourism-related climate information and evaluation are typically based on mean monthly conditions of air temperature and precipitation and do not include thermal perception and other climate parameters relevant for tourists. Here, we quantify climate based on the climate facets relevant to tourism (thermal, physical, aesthetical), and apply the results to the Climate-Tourism-Information-Scheme (CTIS). This paper presents bioclimatic and tourism climatological conditions in the Hunter Region—one of Australia's most popular tourist destinations. In the Hunter Region, generally, temperatures below 15°C occur from April through October, temperatures less than 25°C are expected throughout the whole year, while humidity sits around 50%. As expected, large differences between air temperature and physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) were clearly identified. The widest differences were seen in summer time rather than in the winter period. In addition, cold stress was observed less than 10% of the time in winter while around 40-60% of heat stress was observed in summer time. This correlates with the highest numbers of international visitors, who usually seek a warmer weather, at the beginning of summer time (November and December) and also to the number of domestic visitors, who tend to seek cooler places for recreation and leisure, in late summer (January-March). It was concluded that thermal bioclimate assessment such as PET and CTIS can be applied in the Hunter region, and that local governments and the tourism industry should take an integrated approach to providing more relevant weather and climate information for both domestic and international tourists in the near future.

Cross-scale intercomparison of climate change impacts simulated by regional and global hydrological models in eleven large river basins

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hattermann, F. F.; Krysanova, V.; Gosling, S. N.

Ideally, the results from models operating at different scales should agree in trend direction and magnitude of impacts under climate change. However, this implies that the sensitivity of impact models designed for either scale to climate variability and change is comparable. In this study, we compare hydrological changes simulated by 9 global and 9 regional hydrological models (HM) for 11 large river basins in all continents under reference and scenario conditions. The foci are on model validation runs, sensitivity of annual discharge to climate variability in the reference period, and sensitivity of the long-term average monthly seasonal dynamics to climatemore » change. One major result is that the global models, mostly not calibrated against observations, often show a considerable bias in mean monthly discharge, whereas regional models show a much better reproduction of reference conditions. However, the sensitivity of two HM ensembles to climate variability is in general similar. The simulated climate change impacts in terms of long-term average monthly dynamics evaluated for HM ensemble medians and spreads show that the medians are to a certain extent comparable in some cases with distinct differences in others, and the spreads related to global models are mostly notably larger. Summarizing, this implies that global HMs are useful tools when looking at large-scale impacts of climate change and variability, but whenever impacts for a specific river basin or region are of interest, e.g. for complex water management applications, the regional-scale models validated against observed discharge should be used.« less

Enhancing the Extreme Climate Index (ECI) to monitor climate extremes for an index-based insurance scheme across Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helmschrot, J.; Malherbe, J.; Chamunorwa, M.; Muthige, M.; Petitta, M.; Calmanti, S.; Cucchi, M.; Syroka, J.; Iyahen, E.; Engelbrecht, F.

2017-12-01

Climate services are a key component of National Adaptation Plan (NAP) processes, which require the analysis of current climate conditions, future climate change scenarios and the identification of adaptation strategies, including the capacity to finance and implement effective adaptation options. The Extreme Climate Facility (XCF) proposed by the African Risk Capacity (ARC) developed a climate index insurance scheme, which is based on the Extreme Climate Index (ECI): an objective, multi-hazard index capable of tracking changes in the frequency or magnitude of extreme weather events, thus indicating possible shifts to a new climate regime in various regions. The main hazards covered by ECI are extreme dry, wet and heat events, with the possibility of adding other region-specific risk events. The ECI is standardized across broad geographical regions, so that extreme events occurring under different climatic regimes in Africa can be compared. Initially developed by an Italian company specialized in Climate Services, research is now conducted at the CSIR and SASSCAL, to verify and further develop the ECI for application in southern African countries, through a project initiated by the World Food Programme (WFP) and ARC. The paper will present findings on the most appropriate definitions of extremely wet and dry conditions in Africa, in terms of their impact across a multitude of sub-regional climates of the African continent. Findings of a verification analysis of the ECI, as determined through vegetation monitoring data and the SASSCAL weather station network will be discussed. Changes in the ECI under climate change will subsequently be projected, using detailed regional projections generated by the CSIR and through the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). This work will be concluded by the development of a web-based climate service informing African Stakeholders on climate extremes.

What are the effects of Agro-Ecological Zones and land use region boundaries on land resource projection using the Global Change Assessment Model?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Di Vittorio, Alan V.; Kyle, Page; Collins, William D.

Understanding the potential impacts of climate change is complicated by mismatched spatial representations between gridded Earth System Models (ESMs) and Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), whose regions are typically larger and defined by geopolitical and biophysical criteria. In this study we address uncertainty stemming from the construction of land use regions in an IAM, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), whose regions are currently based on historical climatic conditions (1961-1990). We re-define GCAM’s regions according to projected climatic conditions (2070-2099), and investigate how this changes model outcomes for land use, agriculture, and forestry. By 2100, we find potentially large differences inmore » projected global and regional area of biomass energy crops, fodder crops, harvested forest, and intensive pasture. These land area differences correspond with changes in agricultural commodity prices and production. These results have broader implications for understanding policy scenarios and potential impacts, and for evaluating and comparing IAM and ESM simulations.« less

Local Populations of Arabidopsis thaliana Show Clear Relationship between Photoperiodic Sensitivity of Flowering Time and Altitude

PubMed Central

Lewandowska-Sabat, Anna M.; Fjellheim, Siri; Olsen, Jorunn E.; Rognli, Odd A.

2017-01-01

Adaptation of plants to local conditions that vary substantially within their geographic range is essential for seasonal timing of flowering, a major determinant of plant reproductive success. This study investigates photoperiodic responses in natural populations of Arabidopsis thaliana from high northern latitudes and their significance for local adaptation. Thirty lineages from ten local A. thaliana populations, representing different locations across an altitudinal gradient (2–850 m a.s.l.) in Norway, were grown under uniform controlled conditions, and used to screen for responses to five different photoperiods. We studied relationships between variation in photoperiodic sensitivity of flowering time, altitude, and climatic factors associated with the sites of origin. We found that variation in response to photoperiod is significantly correlated with altitude and climatic variables associated with the sites of origin of the populations. Populations originating from lower altitudes showed stronger photoperiodic sensitivity than populations from higher altitudes. Our results indicate that the altitudinal climatic gradient generates clinal variation in adaptive traits in A. thaliana. PMID:28659966

Paleodust variability since the Last Glacial Maximum and implications for iron inputs to the ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albani, S.; Mahowald, N. M.; Murphy, L. N.; Raiswell, R.; Moore, J. K.; Anderson, R. F.; McGee, D.; Bradtmiller, L. I.; Delmonte, B.; Hesse, P. P.; Mayewski, P. A.

2016-04-01

Changing climate conditions affect dust emissions and the global dust cycle, which in turn affects climate and biogeochemistry. In this study we use observationally constrained model reconstructions of the global dust cycle since the Last Glacial Maximum, combined with different simplified assumptions of atmospheric and sea ice processing of dust-borne iron, to provide estimates of soluble iron deposition to the oceans. For different climate conditions, we discuss uncertainties in model-based estimates of atmospheric processing and dust deposition to key oceanic regions, highlighting the large degree of uncertainty of this important variable for ocean biogeochemistry and the global carbon cycle. We also show the role of sea ice acting as a time buffer and processing agent, which results in a delayed and pulse-like soluble iron release into the ocean during the melting season, with monthly peaks up to ~17 Gg/month released into the Southern Oceans during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM).

A multimodal wave spectrum-based approach for statistical downscaling of local wave climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hegermiller, Christie; Antolinez, Jose A A; Rueda, Ana C.; Camus, Paula; Perez, Jorge; Erikson, Li; Barnard, Patrick; Mendez, Fernando J.

2017-01-01

Characterization of wave climate by bulk wave parameters is insufficient for many coastal studies, including those focused on assessing coastal hazards and long-term wave climate influences on coastal evolution. This issue is particularly relevant for studies using statistical downscaling of atmospheric fields to local wave conditions, which are often multimodal in large ocean basins (e.g. the Pacific). Swell may be generated in vastly different wave generation regions, yielding complex wave spectra that are inadequately represented by a single set of bulk wave parameters. Furthermore, the relationship between atmospheric systems and local wave conditions is complicated by variations in arrival time of wave groups from different parts of the basin. Here, we address these two challenges by improving upon the spatiotemporal definition of the atmospheric predictor used in statistical downscaling of local wave climate. The improved methodology separates the local wave spectrum into “wave families,” defined by spectral peaks and discrete generation regions, and relates atmospheric conditions in distant regions of the ocean basin to local wave conditions by incorporating travel times computed from effective energy flux across the ocean basin. When applied to locations with multimodal wave spectra, including Southern California and Trujillo, Peru, the new methodology improves the ability of the statistical model to project significant wave height, peak period, and direction for each wave family, retaining more information from the full wave spectrum. This work is the base of statistical downscaling by weather types, which has recently been applied to coastal flooding and morphodynamic applications.

Vegetation response to southern California drought during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and early Little Ice Age (AD 800–1600)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heusser, Linda E.; Hendy, Ingrid L.; Barron, John A.

2015-01-01

The presence of xeric vegetation in SBB coincides with major drought events recorded in tree rings and low lake levels elsewhere in California except for the brief drought between AD 1130–1160. Correlative diatom and terrigenous sediment input proxy records from SBB are largely supportive of the pollen record predominantly linking the MCA with drought and La Niña-like conditions and the LIA with wetter (more El Niño-like) conditions. Differences between paleoclimate proxies (pollen, diatoms, and terrigenous sediment) in SBB exist, however, possibly reflecting the temporal and spatial differences in the generation of each proxy record, as well as their individual sensitivity to climate change.

Assessing socioeconomic impacts of climate change on U.S. forests, wood-product markets, and forest recreation

Treesearch

Lloyd C. Irland; Darius Adams; Ralph Alig; Carter J. Betz; Chi-Chung Chen; Mark Hutchins; Bruce A. McCarl; Ken Skog; Brent L. Sohngen

2001-01-01

In this paper we discuss the problems of projecting social and economic changes affecting forests and review recent efforts to assess the wood-market impacts of possible climate changes. To illustrate the range of conditions encountered in projecting socioeconomic change linked to forests, we consider two markedly different uses: forest products markets and forest...

Climate change, estuaries and anadromous fish habitat in the northeastern United States: models, downscaling and uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muhling, B.; Gaitan, C. F.; Tommasi, D.; Saba, V. S.; Stock, C. A.; Dixon, K. W.

2016-02-01

Estuaries of the northeastern United States provide essential habitat for many anadromous fishes, across a range of life stages. Climate change is likely to impact estuarine environments and habitats through multiple pathways. Increasing air temperatures will result in a warming water column, and potentially increased stratification. In addition, changes to precipitation patterns may alter freshwater inflow dynamics, leading to altered seasonal salinity regimes. However, the spatial resolution of global climate models is generally insufficient to resolve these processes at the scale of individual estuaries. Global models can be downscaled to a regional resolution using a variety of dynamical and statistical methods. In this study, we examined projections of estuarine conditions, and future habitat extent, for several anadromous fishes in the Chesapeake Bay using different statistical downscaling methods. Sources of error from physical and biological models were quantified, and key areas of uncertainty were highlighted. Results suggested that future projections of the distribution and recruitment of species most strongly linked to freshwater flow dynamics had the highest levels of uncertainty. The sensitivity of different life stages to environmental conditions, and the population-level responses of anadromous species to climate change, were identified as important areas for further research.

The Carbonates in ALH 84001 Record the Evolution of the Martian Atmosphere Through Multiple Formation Events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shaheen, R.; Niles, P. B.; Corrgan, C.

2012-01-01

Current Martian conditions restrict the presence of liquid water due to low temperatures (approx 210K), a thin atmosphere (approx 7mb), and intense UV radiation. However, past conditions on Mars may have been different with the possibility that the ancient Martian climate was warm and wet with a dense CO2 atmosphere. The cycling of carbon on Mars through atmospheric CO2 and carbonate minerals is critical for deciphering its climate history. In particular stable isotopes contained in carbonates can provide information of their origin and formation environment as well as possibly hinting at the composition of global reservoirs such as atmospheric CO2. Martian meteorite ALH 84001 contains widely studied carbonate rosettes that have been dated to approx. 3.9 Ga and have been used to interpret climatic conditions present at that time. However, there is mount-ing evidence for multiple episodes of carbonate formation in ALH 84001 with potentially distinct isotopic compositions. This study seeks to tease out these different carbonate assemblages using stepped phosphoric acid dissolution and analysis of carbon and triple oxygen stable isotopes. In addition, we report SIMS analyses of the delta O-18 several petrographically unusual carbonate phases in the meteorite.

Correlation of seasonal variations in phosphorous and nitrogen species in upper Black Warrior River with duckweed

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gabrielson, F.C. Jr.; Malatino, A.M.; Santa Cruz, G.J.

1980-10-01

Water samples taken throughout the year from a drainage system that had supported giant duckweed blooms were analyzed for nitrogen and phosphorus. Although seasonal separation of the data indicates possible differences within an imppoundment (Bayview Lake), extreme variations make meaningful conclusions difficult. Daily discharge from a large number of points may have masked seasonal differences. Extensive plant mats were present at minimal levels of nitrogen and phosphorus. The growth rate seemed to be governed more by climate than nutrient conditions. Laboratory investigations indicate that giant duckweed can grow under a wide range of nutrient conditions including high heavy metal concentrations.more » Growth rate data show that without a continual input of nutrients, maximum growth rates do not usually continue beyond 14 to 20 days regardless of the initial single element concentration. With a continuous nutrient input, growth would probably only be inhibited by extreme climate conditions.« less

A quantitative sensitivity analysis on the behaviour of common thermal indices under hot and windy conditions in Doha, Qatar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fröhlich, Dominik; Matzarakis, Andreas

2016-04-01

Human thermal perception is best described through thermal indices. The most popular thermal indices applied in human bioclimatology are the perceived temperature (PT), the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), and the physiologically equivalent temperature (PET). They are analysed focusing on their sensitivity to single meteorological input parameters under the hot and windy meteorological conditions observed in Doha, Qatar. It can be noted, that the results for the three indices are distributed quite differently. Furthermore, they respond quite differently to modifications in the input conditions. All of them show particular limitations and shortcomings that have to be considered and discussed. While the results for PT are unevenly distributed, UTCI shows limitations concerning the input data accepted. PET seems to respond insufficiently to changes in vapour pressure. The indices should therefore be improved to be valid for several kinds of climates.

A Regional-Scale Evaluation on Environmental Stability Conditions for Convective Rain under Climate Change from Super-High-Resolution GCM Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takemi, T.; Nomura, S.; Oku, Y.; Ishikawa, H.

2011-12-01

Understanding and forecasting of convective rain due to intense thunderstorms, which develop under conditions both with and without significant synoptic-scale and/or mesoscale forcings, are critical in dealing with disaster prevention/mitigation and developing urban planning appropriate for disaster management. Thunderstorms rapidly develop even during the daytimes of fair weather conditions without any external forcings, and sometimes become strong enough to induce local-scale meteorological disasters such as torrential rain, flush flooding, high winds, and tornadoes/gusts. With the growing interests in climate change, future changes in the behavior of such convectively generated extreme events have gained scientific and societal interests. This study conducted the regional-scale evaluations on the environmental stability conditions for convective rain that develops under synoptically undisturbed, summertime conditions by using the outputs of super-high-resolution AGCM simulations, at a 20-km resolution, for the present, the near-future, and the future climates under global warming with IPCC A1B emission scenario. The GCM, MRI-AGCM3.2S, was developed by Meteorological Research Institute of Japan Meteorological Agency under the KAKUSHIN program funded by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology of Japan. The climate simulation outputs that were used in this study corresponded to three 25-year periods: 1980-2004 for the present climate; 2020-2044 for the near-future climate; and 2075-2099 for the future climate. The Kanto Plain that includes the Tokyo metropolitan area was chosen as the study area, since the Tokyo metropolitan area is one of the largest metropolises in the world and is vulnerable to extreme weather events. Therefore, one of the purposes of this study was to examine how regional-scale evaluations are performed from the super-high-resolution GCM outputs. After verifying the usefulness of the GCM present-climate outputs with observations and operational mesoscale analyses, we examined, as another purpose of this study, the future changes in the environmental stability for convective rain. To diagnose the environmental conditions, some of the commonly used stability parameters and indices were examined. In the future climates, temperature lapse rate decreased in the lower troposphere, while water vapor mixing ratio increased throughout the deep troposphere. The changes in the temperature and moisture profiles resulted in the increase in both precipitable water vapor and convective available potential energy. These projected changes will be enhanced with the future period. Furthermore, the statistical analyses for the differences of the stability parameters between no-rain and rain days under the synoptically undisturbed condition in each simulated climate period indicated that the environmental conditions in terms of the stability parameters that distinguish no-rain and rain events are basically unchanged between the present and the future climates. This result suggests that the environmental characteristics favorable for afternoon rain events in the synoptically undisturbed environments will not change under global warming.

Multilevel regression models describing regional patterns of invertebrate and algal responses to urbanization across the USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cuffney, T.F.; Kashuba, R.; Qian, S.S.; Alameddine, I.; Cha, Y.K.; Lee, B.; Coles, J.F.; McMahon, G.

2011-01-01

Multilevel hierarchical regression was used to examine regional patterns in the responses of benthic macroinvertebrates and algae to urbanization across 9 metropolitan areas of the conterminous USA. Linear regressions established that responses (intercepts and slopes) to urbanization of invertebrates and algae varied among metropolitan areas. Multilevel hierarchical regression models were able to explain these differences on the basis of region-scale predictors. Regional differences in the type of land cover (agriculture or forest) being converted to urban and climatic factors (precipitation and air temperature) accounted for the differences in the response of macroinvertebrates to urbanization based on ordination scores, total richness, Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera richness, and average tolerance. Regional differences in climate and antecedent agriculture also accounted for differences in the responses of salt-tolerant diatoms, but differences in the responses of other diatom metrics (% eutraphenic, % sensitive, and % silt tolerant) were best explained by regional differences in soils (mean % clay soils). The effects of urbanization were most readily detected in regions where forest lands were being converted to urban land because agricultural development significantly degraded assemblages before urbanization and made detection of urban effects difficult. The effects of climatic factors (temperature, precipitation) on background conditions (biogeographic differences) and rates of response to urbanization were most apparent after accounting for the effects of agricultural development. The effects of climate and land cover on responses to urbanization provide strong evidence that monitoring, mitigation, and restoration efforts must be tailored for specific regions and that attainment goals (background conditions) may not be possible in regions with high levels of prior disturbance (e.g., agricultural development). ?? 2011 by The North American Benthological Society.

Projecting future precipitation and temperature at sites with diverse climate through multiple statistical downscaling schemes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vallam, P.; Qin, X. S.

2017-10-01

Anthropogenic-driven climate change would affect the global ecosystem and is becoming a world-wide concern. Numerous studies have been undertaken to determine the future trends of meteorological variables at different scales. Despite these studies, there remains significant uncertainty in the prediction of future climates. To examine the uncertainty arising from using different schemes to downscale the meteorological variables for the future horizons, projections from different statistical downscaling schemes were examined. These schemes included statistical downscaling method (SDSM), change factor incorporated with LARS-WG, and bias corrected disaggregation (BCD) method. Global circulation models (GCMs) based on CMIP3 (HadCM3) and CMIP5 (CanESM2) were utilized to perturb the changes in the future climate. Five study sites (i.e., Alice Springs, Edmonton, Frankfurt, Miami, and Singapore) with diverse climatic conditions were chosen for examining the spatial variability of applying various statistical downscaling schemes. The study results indicated that the regions experiencing heavy precipitation intensities were most likely to demonstrate the divergence between the predictions from various statistical downscaling methods. Also, the variance computed in projecting the weather extremes indicated the uncertainty derived from selection of downscaling tools and climate models. This study could help gain an improved understanding about the features of different downscaling approaches and the overall downscaling uncertainty.

Application of statistical downscaling technique for the production of wine grapes (Vitis vinifera L.) in Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaitán Fernández, E.; García Moreno, R.; Pino Otín, M. R.; Ribalaygua Batalla, J.

2012-04-01

Climate and soil are two of the most important limiting factors for agricultural production. Nowadays climate change has been documented in many geographical locations affecting different cropping systems. The General Circulation Models (GCM) has become important tools to simulate the more relevant aspects of the climate expected for the XXI century in the frame of climatic change. These models are able to reproduce the general features of the atmospheric dynamic but their low resolution (about 200 Km) avoids a proper simulation of lower scale meteorological effects. Downscaling techniques allow overcoming this problem by adapting the model outcomes to local scale. In this context, FIC (Fundación para la Investigación del Clima) has developed a statistical downscaling technique based on a two step analogue methods. This methodology has been broadly tested on national and international environments leading to excellent results on future climate models. In a collaboration project, this statistical downscaling technique was applied to predict future scenarios for the grape growing systems in Spain. The application of such model is very important to predict expected climate for the different growing crops, mainly for grape, where the success of different varieties are highly related to climate and soil. The model allowed the implementation of agricultural conservation practices in the crop production, detecting highly sensible areas to negative impacts produced by any modification of climate in the different regions, mainly those protected with protected designation of origin, and the definition of new production areas with optimal edaphoclimatic conditions for the different varieties.

Climatically induced interannual variability in aboveground production in forest-tundra and northern taiga of central Siberia.

PubMed

Knorre, Anastasia A; Kirdyanov, Alexander V; Vaganov, Eugene A

2006-02-01

To investigate the variability of primary production of boreal forest ecosystems under the current climatic changes, we compared the dynamics of annual increments and productivity of the main components of plant community (trees, shrubs, mosses) at three sites in the north of Siberia (Russia). Annual radial growth of trees and shrubs was mostly defined by summer temperature regime (positive correlation), but climatic response of woody plants was species specific and depends on local conditions. Dynamics of annual increments of mosses were opposite to tree growth. The difference in climatic response of the different vegetation components of the forest ecosystems indicates that these components seem to be adapted to use climatic conditions during the short and severe northern summer, and decreasing in annual production of one component is usually combined with the increase of other component productivity. Average productivity in the northern forest ecosystems varies from 0.05 to 0.14 t ha(-1) year(-1) for trees, from 0.05 to 0.18 t ha(-1) year(-1) for shrubs and from 0.54 to 0.66 t ha(-1) year(-1) for mosses. Higher values of tree productivity combined with lower annual moss productivity were found in sites in northern taiga in comparison with forest-tundra. Different tendencies in the productivity of the dominant species from each vegetation level (trees, shrubs, mosses) were indicated for the last 10 years studied (1990-1999): while productivity of mosses is increasing, productivity of trees is decreasing, but there is no obvious trend in the productivity of shrubs. Our results show that in the long term, the main contribution to changes in annual biomass productivity in forest-tundra and northern taiga ecosystems under the predicted climatic changes will be determined by living ground cover.

Geographic variation in climate as a proxy for climate change: Forecasting evolutionary trajectories from species differentiation and genetic correlations.

PubMed

Schneider, Heather E; Mazer, Susan J

2016-01-01

Climate change models for California predict a warmer, drier future, potentially resulting in shorter growing seasons. If phenotypic differences between closely related species currently distributed across a moisture and temperature gradient represent adaptations to their abiotic environment, then as conditions become warmer and drier, populations presently adapted to cooler and wetter conditions may evolve to become more similar to those adapted to warmer and drier conditions. Two sister species, Clarkia unguiculata and C. exilis, are distributed across a moisture and temperature gradient in the southern Sierra Nevada, providing an opportunity to predict how this process may occur. In a greenhouse experiment using wild-collected seeds from 11 populations in the southern Sierra Nevada, we examined relationships among elevation, climatic conditions, and population means for each trait, then evaluated bivariate relationships among maternal family means, using raw values and controlling for population and seed mass effects on phenotype. Clarkia exilis occupied warmer, drier conditions, typically at lower elevations, than C. unguiculata did and flowered earlier and faster, producing smaller flowers with lower herkogamy. In C. unguiculata, petal area, herkogamy, and the rate of flower production were positively correlated with days to first flower. If selection favors earlier flowering, smaller petals, or faster flower production in C. unguiculata, then the genetic correlations among these traits should reinforce their joint evolution. Moreover, the correlations between these traits and herkogamy may promote the evolution of self-fertilization as an indirect response to selection, a previously unrecognized potential outcome of climate change. © 2016 Botanical Society of America.

Separating the impacts of climate change and human activities on streamflow: A review of methodologies and critical assumptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dey, Pankaj; Mishra, Ashok

2017-05-01

Climate change and human activity are two major drivers that alter hydrological cycle processes and cause change in spatio-temporal distribution of water availability. Streamflow, the most important component of hydrological cycle undergoes variation which is expected to be influenced by climate change as well as human activities. Since these two affecting conditions are time dependent, having unequal influence, identification of the change point in natural flow regime is of utmost important to separate the individual impact of climate change and human activities on streamflow variability. Subsequently, it is important as well for framing adaptation strategies and policies for regional water resources planning and management. In this paper, a comprehensive review of different approaches used by research community to isolate the impacts of climate change and human activities on streamflow are presented. The important issues pertaining to different approaches, to make rational use of methodology, are discussed so that researcher and policymaker can understand the importance of individual methodology and its use in water resources management. A new approach has also been suggested to select a representative change point under different scenarios of human activities with incorporation of climate variability/change.

Evolutionary divergence of mitochondrial genomes in two Tetranychus species distributed across different climates.

PubMed

Sun, J-T; Jin, P-Y; Hoffmann, A A; Duan, X-Z; Dai, J; Hu, G; Xue, X-F; Hong, X-Y

2018-05-24

There is increasing evidence that mitochondrial genomes (mitogenomes) can be under selection, whereas the selective regimes shaping mitogenome evolution remain largely unclear. To test for mitochondrial genome evolution in relation to the climate adaptation, we explored mtDNA variation in two spider mite (Tetranychus) species, which distribute across different climates. We sequenced 26 complete mitogenomes of T. truncatus which occurs in both warm and cold regions, and 9 complete mitogenomes of T. pueraricola which is only restricted in warm regions. Patterns of evolution in the two species mitogenomes were compared through a series of d N /d S methods and physicochemical profiles of amino acid replacements. We found that (1) the mitogenomes of both species were under widespread purifying selection. (2) Elevated directional adaptive selection was observed in the T. truncatus mitogenome, perhaps linked to the cold climates adaptation of T. truncatus. (3) The strength of selection varied across genes, and diversifying positive selection detected on ND4 and ATP6 pointed to their crucial roles during adaptation to different climatic conditions. This study gained insight into the mitogenome evolution in relation to the climate adaptation. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. © 2018 The Royal Entomological Society.

Development of a Simple Framework to Assess Hydrological Extremes using Solely Climate Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foulon, E.; Gagnon, P.; Rousseau, A. N.

2014-12-01

Extreme flow conditions such as droughts and floods are in general the direct consequences of short- to long-term weather/climate anomalies. For example, in southern Quebec, Canada, winter and summer 7-day low flows are due to summer and fall precipitations. Which prompts the question: is it possible to assess future extreme flow conditions from meteorological/climate indices or should we rely on the classical approach of using outputs of climate models as input to a hydrological model? The objective of this study is to assess six hydrological indices describing extreme flows at the watershed scale (Qmax, Qmin;7d, Qmin;30d for two seasons: winter and summer) using local climate indices without relying on the aforementioned classical approach. To establish the relationship between climate and hydrological indices, daily precipitations, minimum and maximum temperatures from 89 climate projections are used as inputs to a distributed hydrological model. River flows are simulated at the outlet of the Yamaska and Bécancour watersheds in Québec for the 1961-2100 periods. To identify the best predictors, hydrological indices are extracted from the flow series, and climate indices are computed for different time intervals (from a day up to four years). The difference between four-month, cumulative, climatic demand (P-ETP) explains 69% of the 7-day summer low flow during the calibration process. For both watersheds, preliminary findings indicate that the selected indices explain, on average, 38 and 60% of the variability of high- and low-flow indices, respectively. Overall, the results clearly illustrate that the change in the hydrological indices can be detected through the concurrent trends in the climate indices. The use of many climate projections ensures the relationships are not simulation-dependent and shows summer events are particularly at risk with increasing high flows and decreasing low flows. The development of a simple predictive tool to assess the impact of climate change on flows represents one of the major spin-off benefits of this study and may prooveto be useful to municipalities concerned with source water and flood management. Future work includes development of additional climate indices and application of the framework to more watersheds.

Presentation of the FMI 5000 Project: Environmental changes: Fluvio-marine interactions over the last 5000yrs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos-Pereira, Ana; Ramos, Catarina; Trindade, Jorge; Araújo-Gomes, João.; Rocha, Jorge; Granja, Helena; Gonçalves, Luís.; Monge-Soares, António; Martins, José

2010-05-01

Keywords: Estuaries, Environmental Changes, Holocene, GIS Modelling, Portugal FMI 5000 Project (between 2010 and 2012) aims to evaluate, in different estuarine environmental conditions, the balance between fluvial and marine influences, the responses to climatic events and the impact of land use changes. The temporal window chosen, contains different trends of the sea level, climatic fluctuations like the Bond events or humid episodes recorded in the Iberian Peninsula, as well as the increase of the human intervention in the landscape, particularly sensitive since the Bronze Age (circa 3500yr), imprinted in the filling-up of the alluvial plain estuaries. The Portuguese mainland mesotidal coast spreads out in two different environmental conditions: (i) the West coast exposed to the NW dominant waves, with a temperate oceanic climate and fluvial regimes and (ii) the Southern sheltered one, but open to the SW storms, with a Mediterranean climate and with occasional heavy fluvial discharges. This contrast along the coast creates a good field of research to achieve the aims of the project. To prosecute this goal, estuaries of medium drainage basins were selected as they have homogeneous climate, geologic and geomorphologic conditions, allowing to define accurately the hydroclimatic events that contribute to the infilling of the estuarine plains. The small changes are recorded not only in the textural properties of the sediments, already recognized in the sediments of the Tagus and Guadiana rivers and in the small estuaries of the Spanish southern coast but also in the micro fauna, pollens and non-pollen-palinomorphs allowing to define the environmental changes, both marine and fluvial. To achieve the Project goals we select three estuaries in different climatic and wave climate conditions, to develop four different kinds of research and methodologies: (i) To identify millenary evolution, several hand-operated gauge auger cores or vibracores will be carried out in the infilling sediments of the estuaries alluvial plains. The cored sediments will be treated to define the textural sedimentary changes, to identify the pollen and non-pollen-palinomorphs and the foraminifera content. The changes in the sedimentary record are fundamental in the flood episodes evaluation and the sequence of wet and dry period's establishment over the Middle and Upper Holocene. The identification of the pollen and non-pollen-palinomorphs will add information on the natural and human induced climatic and environmental conditions. The presence and the type of foraminifera content will set aside the marine incursion episodes and the environmental changes. Stable isotope ratios (δ13C) in muddy deposits will be used to identify sources of fine-sized organic matter (marine or terrestrial). (ii) To identify the secular evolution, the research of regional historical documents will focus not only on rainy/flooded episodes and droughts but also on the land use changes (e.g. deforestation, drying of marshes). (iii) To assess dating of the detected environmental change events, the sedimentation rates and the landscape evolution over the last 5000 yr, radiocarbon dating will be carried out. For the last century another approach will be used, based on radiometric data tools adequate to this temporal scale (210Pb) and compared with climatic and hydrological Portuguese network observational records. (iv) The correlation of the results provided by the three previous set of tasks would be performed and compared with Paleoclimatic Data Sets (e.g. NOAA) in order to evaluate how the global and regional climatic changes are reflected along the Western coast of the Iberian Peninsula during the last 5000yr. All data will be integrated in a GIS, allowing the reconstruction and modelling of paleolandscape, its evolution during the Middle and Upper Holocene and future tendencies in the global change scenario. Project financed by FCT - Fundação para a Ciência e Tcnologia, n°: PTDC/CTE-GIX/104035/2008

Winter temperature conditions (1670-2010) reconstructed from varved sediments, western Canadian High Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amann, Benjamin; Lamoureux, Scott F.; Boreux, Maxime P.

2017-09-01

Advances in paleoclimatology from the Arctic have provided insights into long-term climate conditions. However, while past annual and summer temperature have received considerable research attention, comparatively little is known about winter paleoclimate. Arctic winter is of special interest as it is the season with the highest sensitivity to climate change, and because it differs substantially from summer and annual measures. Therefore, information about past changes in winter climate is key to improve our knowledge of past forced climate variability and to reduce uncertainty in climate projections. In this context, Arctic lakes with snowmelt-fed catchments are excellent potential winter climate archives. They respond strongly to snowmelt-induced runoff, and indirectly to winter temperature and snowfall conditions. To date, only a few well-calibrated lake sediment records exist, which appear to reflect site-specific responses with differing reconstructions. This limits the possibility to resolve large-scale winter climate change prior the instrumental period. Here, we present a well-calibrated quantitative temperature and snowfall record for the extended winter season (November through March; NDJFM) from Chevalier Bay (Melville Island, NWT, Canadian Arctic) back to CE 1670. The coastal embayment has a large catchment influenced by nival terrestrial processes, which leads to high sedimentation rates and annual sedimentary structures (varves). Using detailed microstratigraphic analysis from two sediment cores and supported by μ-XRF data, we separated the nival sedimentary units (spring snowmelt) from the rainfall units (summer) and identified subaqueous slumps. Statistical correlation analysis between the proxy data and monthly climate variables reveals that the thickness of the nival units can be used to predict winter temperature (r = 0.71, pc < 0.01, 5-yr filter) and snowfall (r = 0.65, pc < 0.01, 5-yr filter) for the western Canadian High Arctic over the last ca. 400 years. Results reveal a strong variability in winter temperature back to CE 1670 with the coldest decades reconstructed for the period CE 1800-1880, while the warmest decades and major trends are reconstructed for the period CE 1880-1930 (0.26°C/decade) and CE 1970-2010 (0.37°C/decade). Although the first aim of this study was to increase the paleoclimate data coverage for the winter season, the record from Chevalier Bay also holds great potential for more applied climate research such as data-model comparisons and proxy-data assimilation in climate model simulations.

A National Energy-Water System Assessment Framework (NEWS): Synopsis of Stage 1 Research Strategy and Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vorosmarty, C. J.; Miara, A.; Macknick, J.; Newmark, R. L.; Cohen, S.; Sun, Y.; Tidwell, V. C.; Corsi, F.; Melillo, J. M.; Fekete, B. M.; Proussevitch, A. A.; Glidden, S.; Suh, S.

2017-12-01

The focus of this talk is on climate adaptation and the reliability of power supply infrastructure when viewed through the lens of strategic water issues. Power supply is critically dependent upon water resources, particularly to cool thermoelectric plants, making the sector particularly sensitive to any shifts in the geography or seasonality of water supply. We report on results from an NSF-Funded Water Sustainability and Climate effort aimed at uncovering key energy and economic system vulnerabilities. We have developed the National Energy-Water System assessment framework (NEWS) to systematically evaluate: a) the performance of the nation's electricity sector under multiple climate scenarios; b) the feasibility of alternative pathways to improve climate adaptation; and, c) the impacts of energy technology and investment tradeoffs on the economic productivity, water availability and aquatic ecosystem condition. Our project combines core engineering and geophysical models (ReEDS [Regional Energy Deployment System], TP2M [Thermoelectric Power and Thermal Pollution], and WBM [Water Balance]) through unique digital "handshake" protocols that operate across different institutions and modeling platforms. Combined system outputs are fed into a regional-to-national scale economic input/output model to evaluate economic consequences of climate constraints, technology choices, and environmental regulation. The impact assessments in NEWS are carried out through a series of climate/energy policy scenario studies to 2050. We find that despite significant climate-water impacts on individual plants, the current US power supply infrastructure shows potential for adaptation to future climates by capitalizing on the size of regional power systems, grid configuration and improvements in thermal efficiencies. However, the magnitude and implications of climate-water impacts vary depending on the configuration of the future power sector. To evaluate future power supply performance, we model alternative electricity sector pathways in combination with varying climate-water conditions. Further, water-linked disruptions in electricity supply yield substantial impacts on regional economies yet system-level shocks can be attenuated through different technology mixes and infrastructure.

Direct and indirect effects of climate change on herbicide leaching--a regional scale assessment in Sweden.

PubMed

Steffens, Karin; Jarvis, Nicholas; Lewan, Elisabet; Lindström, Bodil; Kreuger, Jenny; Kjellström, Erik; Moeys, Julien

2015-05-01

Climate change is not only likely to improve conditions for crop production in Sweden, but also to increase weed pressure and the need for herbicides. This study aimed at assessing and contrasting the direct and indirect effects of climate change on herbicide leaching to groundwater in a major crop production region in south-west Sweden with the help of the regional pesticide fate and transport model MACRO-SE. We simulated 37 out of the 41 herbicides that are currently approved for use in Sweden on eight major crop types for the 24 most common soil types in the region. The results were aggregated accounting for the fractional coverage of the crop and the area sprayed with a particular herbicide. For simulations of the future, we used projections of five different climate models as model driving data and assessed three different future scenarios: (A) only changes in climate, (B) changes in climate and land-use (altered crop distribution), and (C) changes in climate, land-use, and an increase in herbicide use. The model successfully distinguished between leachable and non-leachable compounds (88% correctly classified) in a qualitative comparison against regional-scale monitoring data. Leaching was dominated by only a few herbicides and crops under current climate and agronomic conditions. The model simulations suggest that the direct effects of an increase in temperature, which enhances degradation, and precipitation which promotes leaching, cancel each other at a regional scale, resulting in a slight decrease in leachate concentrations in a future climate. However, the area at risk of groundwater contamination doubled when indirect effects of changes in land-use and herbicide use, were considered. We therefore concluded that it is important to consider the indirect effects of climate change alongside the direct effects and that effective mitigation strategies and strict regulation are required to secure future (drinking) water resources. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On the appropriate definition of soil profile configuration and initial conditions for land surface-hydrology models in cold regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sapriza-Azuri, Gonzalo; Gamazo, Pablo; Razavi, Saman; Wheater, Howard S.

2018-06-01

Arctic and subarctic regions are amongst the most susceptible regions on Earth to global warming and climate change. Understanding and predicting the impact of climate change in these regions require a proper process representation of the interactions between climate, carbon cycle, and hydrology in Earth system models. This study focuses on land surface models (LSMs) that represent the lower boundary condition of general circulation models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs), which simulate climate change evolution at the global and regional scales, respectively. LSMs typically utilize a standard soil configuration with a depth of no more than 4 m, whereas for cold, permafrost regions, field experiments show that attention to deep soil profiles is needed to understand and close the water and energy balances, which are tightly coupled through the phase change. To address this gap, we design and run a series of model experiments with a one-dimensional LSM, called CLASS (Canadian Land Surface Scheme), as embedded in the MESH (Modélisation Environmentale Communautaire - Surface and Hydrology) modelling system, to (1) characterize the effect of soil profile depth under different climate conditions and in the presence of parameter uncertainty; (2) assess the effect of including or excluding the geothermal flux in the LSM at the bottom of the soil column; and (3) develop a methodology for temperature profile initialization in permafrost regions, where the system has an extended memory, by the use of paleo-records and bootstrapping. Our study area is in Norman Wells, Northwest Territories of Canada, where measurements of soil temperature profiles and historical reconstructed climate data are available. Our results demonstrate a dominant role for parameter uncertainty, that is often neglected in LSMs. Considering such high sensitivity to parameter values and dependency on the climate condition, we show that a minimum depth of 20 m is essential to adequately represent the temperature dynamics. We further show that our proposed initialization procedure is effective and robust to uncertainty in paleo-climate reconstructions and that more than 300 years of reconstructed climate time series are needed for proper model initialization.

Spatial observation and monitoring of the effects of the "New Climate" Warming on Morocco: Situation of the recent urban floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karrouk, M. S.

2017-12-01

Since the nineties of the last century, climatological research following a great scientific advance in the field of prediction, not the variability and evolution of the different climatic parameters was beginning to be clearer!But today, since the beginning of 2005, certainly due to oceanic thermal cumulations, and the shift of climatic zones towards poles in selective forms (more intense on the oceans present on the continents); Climatic events do not evolve according to the usual and expected rhythms: atmospheric circulation, precipitation, temperatures, seasonal phenomena, etc. These conditions are a spatiotemporal evolution and distribution, which characterize the new "global climate", by the new atmospheric regime imposing the Meridian Atmospheric Circulation (MAC), alternating the conditions of Freshness (humidity) and Heat (drought) along the year.In this new situation, Morocco, located in the climate transition zone, is fully affected by the "New Climate". Usually, the atmospheric response to major climatic events (ENSO) in this region such as "El Niño" was characterized by the establishment of the NAO positive index, stability and drought, due to dominance Zonal Atmospheric Circulation in winter. On the other hand, in the "La Niña" episode, the negative index of the NAO and the predominant Meridian Atmospheric Circulation and precipitation became abundant.Since the beginning of this century, qualified meteorological events of "exceptional !" causing floods have continued to occur in Morocco and elsewhere, with increasing recurrence, prompting us to wonder about the "new" mode of hydro-thermal function of the climate system that induces torrential rains, as well as its effect on environments and societies.The latest event is the flood disaster in October 2016 in the Laâyoune region of southern Morocco, which specializes in the unusual return of rain in a region considered dry and Saharan.Thanks to spatial observation and monitoring of meteorological conditions over the last 15 years, these types of alternating Heat / Cold conditions have become predictable, enabling decision-makers today to prepare adequately for the management of related risks to the "New Climate" warmed.

The inequality of water scarcity events: who is actually being affected?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veldkamp, Ted I. E.; Wada, Yoshihide; Kummu, Matti; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Ward, Philip J.

2015-04-01

Over the past decades, changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions increased regional and global water scarcity problems. In the near future, projected changes in human water use and population growth - in combination with climate change - are expected to aggravate water scarcity conditions and its associated impacts on our society. Whilst a wide range of studies have modelled past and future regional and global patterns of change in population or land area impacted by water scarcity conditions, less attention is paid on who is actually affected and how vulnerable this share of the population is to water scarcity conditions. The actual impact of water scarcity events, however, not only depends on the numbers being affected, but merely on how sensitive this population is to water scarcity conditions, how quick and efficient governments can deal with the problems induced by water scarcity, and how many (financial and infrastructural) resources are available to cope with water scarce conditions. Only few studies have investigated the above mentioned interactions between societal composition and water scarcity conditions (e.g. by means of the social water scarcity index and the water poverty index) and, up to our knowledge, a comprehensive global analysis including different water scarcity indicators and multiple climate and socioeconomic scenarios is missing. To address this issue, we assess in this contribution the adaptive capacity of a society to water scarcity conditions, evaluate how this may be driven by different societal factors, and discuss how enhanced knowledge on this topic could be of interest for water managers in their design of adaptation strategies coping with water scarcity events. For that purpose, we couple spatial information on water scarcity conditions with different components from, among others, the Human Development Index and the Worldwide Governance Indicators, such as: the share of the population with an income below the poverty line; mean year of schooling; the ratio between urban and rural population; import and export rates; political stability; corruption; and government effectiveness. Moreover, we also take into account the accessibility of fresh water bodies and markets. Underlying water scarcity conditions were estimated as follows: (1) yearly water availability was calculated at 0.5° x 0.5° over the period 1971-2099 using daily discharge and run-off fields from the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, forced with different climate change scenarios; (2) statistical methods were applied to fit probability density functions to time-series of yearly water availability and to estimate water availability for a number of return periods covering the current, 2030, and 2050 conditions; (3) water availability results were assembled with scenario estimates of water consumption and population density which resulted in a series of water scarcity estimates.

Climate risks on potato yield in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Xun; Lall, Upmanu

2016-04-01

The yield of potatoes is affected by water and temperature during the growing season. We study the impact of a suite of climate variables on potato yield at country level. More than ten climate variables related to the growth of potato are considered, including the seasonal rainfall and temperature, but also extreme conditions at different averaging periods from daily to monthly. A Bayesian hierarchical model is developed to jointly consider the risk of heat stress, cold stress, wet and drought. Future climate risks are investigated through the projection of future climate data. This study contributes to assess the risks of present and future climate risks on potatoes yield, especially the risks of extreme events, which could be used to guide better sourcing strategy and ensure food security in the future.

[Ecological observations on Biomphalaria straminea (Dunker, 1848) in areas of the northeast, Brazil].

PubMed

Rosas, E

1987-01-01

The different climatic regions determine the zoogeographic distribution of various animal species depending on their particular conditions and ecological preferences. The host schistosomiasis planorbid is one of these species. This paper deals with the distribution of Biomphalaria straminea in northeast Brazil. It starts from the analysis of different climatic peculiarities in this region, associated to limnological observation done by the author in three different hydric collections in the state of Sergipe. It has been concluded that this is an "eurióioca" species. Its broad ecological valence permits this species to survive in regions where climate asperties are evident, requiring behavior and physiological adaptations. The species survives in all northeast region, from "zona da mata", in the coast, to the semi-arid "sertão".

Behavior of crushed rock aggregates used in road construction exposed to cold climate conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuznetsova, Elena; Pérez Fortes, Ana Patricia; Anastasio, Sara; Willy Danielsen, Svein

2016-04-01

Presently, about 90% of the aggregate production in Europe comes from naturally occurring resources: quarries and pits. Due to the increased demand for sand and gravel for construction purposes, not only in building but also in road construction, the last decade has seen a significant trend towards the use of more crushed rock aggregates. This resource has been more and more preferred to sand and gravel thanks to the significant technological development of its process and use phase. The performance of the aggregates is generally evaluated depending on three main factors: the geological origin (mineral composition, texture, structure, degree of weathering), the aggregate processing (crushing, sieving, washing, storing) and the user technology for a specific area of use (e.g. road construction, asphalt binders). Nevertheless climatic conditions should carefully be taken into account in application such as road construction. Large temperature gradients and high levels of humidity are known to significantly affect the performance of the material. Although the problem is, at least in the asphalt field, considered mostly from the binder point of view, this article aims to investigate the effect of aggregate properties on road performance in cold climatic conditions. Two different climatic areas will be taken into account: Norway and Spain. While both these countries are listed among the main European producers of aggregates, they represent significantly different climatic regions. While Norwegian weather is characterized by humid cold winters and relatively mild summers, Spain has temperate climate with cold regions in mountainous and internal areas. Both countries have been significantly affected by climate change with increasing temperature variations and instability. At the same time, similar winter maintenance measures, including the use of a considerable amount of solid and liquid chemicals to avoid ice formation (e.g. NaCl) and/or to provide better friction, are carried out in both countries. The use of crushed aggregates in both the frost protection layer and asphalt layers is the main topic for our investigations. In existing standards there is large focus on mechanical properties of aggregates and their grain size distribution, but little focus on mineralogy and and its behaviour at low temperatures. With the purpose to study the effect of winter climatic conditions and the use of salts during winter maintenance, different samples of aggregates and asphalt mixtures used in Norwegian and Spanish roads were subjected to freeze-thaw cycles in the laboratory. To evaluate the impact of these cycles to the mechanical properties of the selected materials, Los Angeles test on aggregates and Cantabro test on asphalt have been done and compared with results from the same aggregates and asphalt mixtures but untreated in the laboratory. The results obtained were related to the petrographical analysis of the rocks that compose the aggregates in order to estimate the influence of the rock properties (mineralogy, texture and structure) in road materials behavior, especially when they are exposed to winter conditions.

Significance of hydrological model choice and land use changes when doing climate change impact assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bjørnholt Karlsson, Ida; Obel Sonnenborg, Torben; Refsgaard, Jens Christian; Høgh Jensen, Karsten

2014-05-01

Uncertainty in impact studies arises both from Global Climate Models (GCM), emission projections, statistical downscaling, Regional Climate Models (RCM), hydrological models and calibration techniques (Refsgaard et al. 2013). Some of these uncertainties have been evaluated several times in the literature; however few studies have investigated the effect of hydrological model choice on the assessment results (Boorman & Sefton 1997; Jiang et al. 2007; Bastola et al. 2011). These studies have found that model choice results in large differences, up to 70%, in the predicted discharge changes depending on the climate input. The objective of the study is to investigate the impact of climate change on hydrology of the Odense catchment, Denmark both in response to (a) different climate projections (GCM-RCM combinations); (b) different hydrological models and (c) different land use scenarios. This includes: 1. Separation of the climate model signal; the hydrological model signal and the land use signal 2. How do the different hydrological components react under different climate and land use conditions for the different models 3. What land use scenario seems to provide the best adaptation for the challenges of the different future climate change scenarios from a hydrological perspective? Four climate models from the ENSEMBLES project (Hewitt & Griggs 2004): ECHAM5 - HIRHAM5, ECHAM5 - RCA3, ARPEGE - RM5.1 and HadCM3 - HadRM3 are used, assessing the climate change impact in three periods: 1991-2010 (present), 2041-2060 (near future) and 2081-2100 (far future). The four climate models are used in combination with three hydrological models with different conceptual layout: NAM, SWAT and MIKE SHE. Bastola, S., C. Murphy and J. Sweeney (2011). "The role of hydrological modelling uncertainties in climate change impact assessments of Irish river catchments." Advances in Water Resources 34: 562-576. Boorman, D. B. and C. E. M. Sefton (1997). "Recognising the uncertainty in the quantification of the effects of climate change on hydrological response." Climate Change 35: 415-434. Hewitt, C. D. and D. J. Griggs (2004). "Ensembles-based predictions of climate changes and their impacts." Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union 85: 1-566. Jiang, T., Y. D. Chen, C. Xu, X. Chen, X. Chen and V. P. Singh (2007). "Comparison of hydrological impacts of climate change simulated by six hydrological models in the Dongjiang Basin, South China." Journal of hydrology 336: 316-333. Refsgaard, J. C., K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen, M. Drews, K. Halsnæs, E. Jeppesen, H. Madsen, A. Markandya, J. E. Olesen, J. R. Porter and J. H. Christensen (2013). "The role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation strategies - A Danish water management example." Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 18: 337-359.

Glacier Sensitivity Across the Andes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sagredo, E. A.; Lowell, T. V.; Rupper, S.

2010-12-01

Most of the research on causes driving former glacial fluctuations, and the climatic signals involved, has focused on the comparisons of sequences of glacial events in separate regions of the world and their temporal-phasing relationship with terrestrial or extraterrestrial climate-forcing mechanisms. Nevertheless the climatic signals related with these glacial advances are still under debate. This impossibility to resolve these questions satisfactorily have been generally attributed to the insufficiently precise chronologies and unevenly distributed records. However, behind these ideas lies the implicit assumption that glaciers situated in different climate regimes respond uniformly to similar climatic perturbations. This ongoing research is aimed to explore the climate-glacier relationship at regional scale, through the analysis of the spatial variability of glacier sensitivity to climatic change. By applying a Surface Energy Mass Balance model (SEMB) developed by Rupper and Roe (2008) to glaciers located in different climatic regimes, we analyzed the spatial variability of mass balance changes under different baseline conditions and under different scenarios of climatic change. For the sake of this research, the analysis is being focused on the Andes, which in its 9,000 km along the western margin of South America offers an unparalleled climatic diversity. Preliminary results suggest that above some threshold of climate change (a hypothetical uniform perturbation), all the glaciers across the Andes would respond in the “same direction” (advancing or retreating). Below that threshold, glaciers located in some climatic regimes may be insensitive to the specific perturbation. On the other hand, glaciers located in different climatic regimes may exhibit a “different magnitude” of change under a uniform climatic perturbation. Thus, glaciers located in the dry Andes of Perú, Chile and Argentina are more sensitive to precipitation changes than variations in temperatures, while glaciers located in the wet Patagonian Andes seem to exhibit an opposite behavior. In an intermediate position are those glaciers located in the Tropical Andes, and Tierra del Fuego, which even though still more sensitive to temperature, they can be affected by temperature changes as well. With this regional approach towards the comprehension of climate-glacial dynamic interaction, we expect to contribute to the understanding the causes and mechanism driving former episodes of glacial fluctuations, and in turn, to the development of future scenarios of climate change.

Impact of regional afforestation on climatic conditions in metropolitan areas: case study of Copenhagen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stysiak, Aleksander Andrzej; Bergen Jensen, Marina; Mahura, Alexander

2016-04-01

Like most other places, European metropolitan areas will face a range of climate-related challenges over the next decades that may influence the nature of urban life across the continent. Under future urbanization and climate change scenarios the well-being and comfort of the urban population might become progressively compromised. In urban areas, the effects of the warming climate will be accelerated by combination of Urban Heat Island effect (UHI) and extreme heat waves. The land cover composition directly influences atmospheric variability, and can either escalate or downscale the projected changes. Vegetation, forest ecosystems in particular, are anticipated to play an important role in modulating local and regional climatic conditions, and to be vital factor in the process of adapting cities to warming climate. This study investigates the impact of forest and land-cover change on formation and development of temperature regimes in the Copenhagen Metropolitan Area (CPH-MA). Potential to modify the UHI effect in CPH-MA is estimated. Using 2009 meteorological data, and up-to-date 2012 high resolution land-cover data we employed the online integrated meteorology-chemistry/aerosols Enviro-HIRLAM (Environment - High Resolution Limited Area Model) modeling system to simulate air temperature (at 2 meter height) fields for a selected period in July 2009. Employing research tools (such as METGRAF meteorological software and Geographical Information Systems) we then estimated the influence of different afforestation and urbanization scenarios with new forests being located after the Danish national afforestation plan, after proximity to the city center, after dominating wind characteristics, and urbanization taking place as densification of the existing conurbation. This study showed the difference in temperature up to 3.25°C, and the decrease in the spatial extent of temperature fields up to 68%, depending on the selected scenario. Performed simulations demonstrated that well-positioned and well-sized afforestation at the regional scale can significantly affect the spatial distribution, structure and intensity of the temperature field. This study points to vegetation having practical applications in urban and regional planning for modifying local climatic conditions. Keywords: Urban Heat Island, Afforestation, Land cover change, Urban planning, Climate change adaptation, Enviro-HIRLAM

Assessing the resilience of Norway spruce forests through a model-based reanalysis of thinning trials☆

PubMed Central

Seidl, Rupert; Vigl, Friedrich; Rössler, Günter; Neumann, Markus; Rammer, Werner

2017-01-01

As a result of a rapidly changing climate the resilience of forests is an increasingly important property for ecosystem management. Recent efforts have improved the theoretical understanding of resilience, yet its operational quantification remains challenging. Furthermore, there is growing awareness that resilience is not only a means to addressing the consequences of climate change but is also affected by it, necessitating a better understanding of the climate sensitivity of resilience. Quantifying current and future resilience is thus an important step towards mainstreaming resilience thinking into ecosystem management. Here, we present a novel approach for quantifying forest resilience from thinning trials, and assess the climate sensitivity of resilience using process-based ecosystem modeling. We reinterpret the wide range of removal intensities and frequencies in thinning trials as an experimental gradient of perturbation, and estimate resilience as the recovery rate after perturbation. Our specific objectives were (i) to determine how resilience varies with stand and site conditions, (ii) to assess the climate sensitivity of resilience across a range of potential future climate scenarios, and (iii) to evaluate the robustness of resilience estimates to different focal indicators and assessment methodologies. We analyzed three long-term thinning trials in Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) forests across an elevation gradient in Austria, evaluating and applying the individual-based process model iLand. The resilience of Norway spruce was highest at the montane site, and decreased at lower elevations. Resilience also decreased with increasing stand age and basal area. The effects of climate change were strongly context-dependent: At the montane site, where precipitation levels were ample even under climate change, warming increased resilience in all scenarios. At lower elevations, however, rising temperatures decreased resilience, particularly at precipitation levels below 750–800 mm. Our results were largely robust to different focal variables and resilience definitions. Based on our findings management can improve the capacity to recover from partial disturbances by avoiding overmature and overstocked conditions. At increasingly water limited sites a strongly decreasing resilience of Norway spruce will require a shift towards tree species better adapted to the expected future conditions. PMID:28860674

Application of the new scenario framework for climate change research: Future social vulnerability in large urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rohat, Guillaume; Flacke, Johannes; Dao, Hy

2016-04-01

It is by now widely acknowledged that future social vulnerability to climate change depends on both future climate state and future socio-economic conditions. Nevertheless, while most of the vulnerability assessments are using climate projections, the integration of socio-economic projections into the assessment of vulnerabilities has been very limited. Up to now, the vast majority of vulnerability assessments has been using current socio-economic conditions, hence has failed to consider the influence of socio-economic developments in the construction of vulnerability. To enhance the use of socio-economic projections into climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability assessments, the climate change research community has been recently involved in the development of a new model for creating scenarios that integrate future changes in climate as well as in society, known under the name of the new scenario framework for climate change research. This theoretical framework is made of a set of alternative futures of socio-economic developments (known as shared socio-economic pathways - SSPs), a set of hypothesis about future climate policies (known as shared policy assumptions - SPAs) and a set of greenhouse gas concentration trajectories (known as representative concentration pathways - RCPs), which are all combined into a scenario matrix architecture (SMA) whose aim is to facilitate the use of this framework. Despite calls by the climate change research community for the use of this conceptual framework in impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research, its use and its assessment has been very limited. Focusing on case-studies (i.e. specific cities as well as specific climate impacts and their associated human exposures and vulnerabilities), the study presented here will attempt to operationalize this theoretical framework for the assessment of future social vulnerability in large urban areas. A particular attention will be paid to less advanced and more vulnerable countries in the global south. We will discuss how this framework can be implemented for large urban agglomerations. To do so, we will examine: (i) by what means globally-developed SSPs can be extended into sector-specific and location-specific socio-economic development scenarios, (ii) in what manner the quantification of key socio-economic indicators (in accordance with the different SSPs), coupled with regional climate projections under different RCPs, can lead to a quantitative and reliable assessment of the evolution of future social vulnerability, and (iii) to which extent the SMA, i.e. the combination of extended SSPs, regional climate projections (under different RCPs) and various locally-developed SPAs, can answer some of the key questions regarding climate change adaptation policies, from a vulnerability perspective.

NOAA/NCEI/Regional Climate Services: Working with Partners and Stakeholders across a Wide Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mecray, E. L.

2015-12-01

Federal agencies all require plans to be prepared at the state level that outline the implementation of funding to address wildlife habitat, human health, transportation infrastructure, coastal zone management, environmental management, emergency management, and others. These plans are now requiring the consideration of changing climate conditions. So where does a state turn to discuss lessons learned, obtain tools and information to assess climate conditions, and to work with other states in their region? Regional networks and collaboratives are working to deliver this sector by sector. How do these networks work? Do they fit together in any way? What similarities and differences exist? Is anyone talking across these lines to find common climate information requirements? A sketch is forming that links these efforts, not by blending the sectors, but by finding the areas where coordination is critical, where information needs are common, and where delivery mechanisms can be streamlined. NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information's Regional Climate Services Directors have been working at the interface of stakeholder-driven information delivery since 2010. This talk will outline the regional climate services delivery framework for the Eastern Region, with examples of regional products and information.

Farmers' Preferences for Future Agricultural Land Use Under the Consideration of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pröbstl-Haider, Ulrike; Mostegl, Nina M.; Kelemen-Finan, Julia; Haider, Wolfgang; Formayer, Herbert; Kantelhardt, Jochen; Moser, Tobias; Kapfer, Martin; Trenholm, Ryan

2016-09-01

Cultural landscapes in Austria are multifunctional through their simultaneous support of productive, habitat, regulatory, social, and economic functions. This study investigates, if changing climatic conditions in Austria will lead to landscape change. Based on the assumption that farmers are the crucial decision makers when it comes to the implementation of agricultural climate change policies, this study analyzes farmers' decision-making under the consideration of potential future climate change scenarios and risk, varying economic conditions, and different policy regimes through a discrete choice experiment. Results show that if a warming climate will offer new opportunities to increase income, either through expansion of cash crop cultivation or new land use options such as short-term rotation forestry, these opportunities will almost always be seized. Even if high environmental premiums were offered to maintain current cultural landscapes, only 43 % of farmers would prefer the existing grassland cultivation. Therefore, the continuity of characteristic Austrian landscape patterns seems unlikely. In conclusion, despite governmental regulations of and incentives for agriculture, climate change will have significant effects on traditional landscapes. Any opportunities for crop intensification will be embraced, which will ultimately impact ecosystem services, tourism opportunities, and biodiversity.

Farmers' Preferences for Future Agricultural Land Use Under the Consideration of Climate Change.

PubMed

Pröbstl-Haider, Ulrike; Mostegl, Nina M; Kelemen-Finan, Julia; Haider, Wolfgang; Formayer, Herbert; Kantelhardt, Jochen; Moser, Tobias; Kapfer, Martin; Trenholm, Ryan

2016-09-01

Cultural landscapes in Austria are multifunctional through their simultaneous support of productive, habitat, regulatory, social, and economic functions. This study investigates, if changing climatic conditions in Austria will lead to landscape change. Based on the assumption that farmers are the crucial decision makers when it comes to the implementation of agricultural climate change policies, this study analyzes farmers' decision-making under the consideration of potential future climate change scenarios and risk, varying economic conditions, and different policy regimes through a discrete choice experiment. Results show that if a warming climate will offer new opportunities to increase income, either through expansion of cash crop cultivation or new land use options such as short-term rotation forestry, these opportunities will almost always be seized. Even if high environmental premiums were offered to maintain current cultural landscapes, only 43 % of farmers would prefer the existing grassland cultivation. Therefore, the continuity of characteristic Austrian landscape patterns seems unlikely. In conclusion, despite governmental regulations of and incentives for agriculture, climate change will have significant effects on traditional landscapes. Any opportunities for crop intensification will be embraced, which will ultimately impact ecosystem services, tourism opportunities, and biodiversity.

Precipitation event tracking reveals that precipitation characteristics respond differently under seasonal, interannual, and anthropogenic forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, C.; Chang, W.; Kong, W.; Wang, J.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Stein, M.; Moyer, E. J.

2017-12-01

Change in precipitation characteristics is an especially concerning potential impact of climate change, and both model and observational studies suggest that increases in precipitation intensity are likely. However, studies to date have focused on mean accumulated precipitation rather than on the characteristics of individual events. We report here on a study using a novel rainstorm identification tracking algorithm (Chang et al. 2016) that allows evaluating changes in spatio-temporal characteristics of events. We analyze high-resolution precipitation from dynamically downscaled regional climate simulations over the continental U.S. (WRF driven by CCSM4) of present and future climate conditions. We show that precipitation events show distinct characteristic changes for natural seasonal and interannual variations and for anthropogenic greenhouse-gas forcing. In all cases, wetter seasons/years/future climate states are associated with increased precipitation intensity, but other precipitation characteristics respond differently to the different drivers. For example, under anthropogenic forcing, future wetter climate states involve smaller individual event sizes (partially offsetting their increased intensity). Under natural variability, however, wetter years involve larger mean event sizes. Event identification and tracking algorithms thus allow distinguishing drivers of different types of precipitation changes, and in relating those changes to large-scale processes.

Antecedent conditions influence soil respiration differences in shrub and grass patches

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Quantifying the response of soil respiration to past environmental conditions is critical for predicting how future climate and vegetation change will impact ecosystem carbon balance. Increased shrub dominance in semiarid grasslands has potentially large effects on soil carbon cycling. The goal of t...

Impact of climate change environmental conditions on the resilience of different formulations of the biocontrol agent Candida sake CPA-1 on grapes.

PubMed

Carbó, A; Torres, R; Teixidó, N; Usall, J; Medina, A; Magan, N

2018-07-01

Biocontrol agents have become components of integrated crop protection systems for controlling economically important fungal pathogens. Candida sake CPA-1 is a biocontrol agent of fungal pathogens of fruits, both pre- and post-harvest. While the efficacy of different formulations have been examined previously, few studies have considered the resilience of different formulations under changing climatic conditions of elevated temperature, drought stress and increased atmospheric CO 2 . This study examined the effect of (a) temperature × RH × elevated CO 2 (400 vs 1000 ppm) on the temporal establishment and viability of two dry and one liquid C. sake CPA-1 formulations on grape berry surfaces; (b) temperature stress (25 vs 35°C); and (c) elevated CO 2 levels. Results indicated that temperature, RH and CO 2 concentration influenced the establishment and viability of the formulations but there was no significant difference between formulations. For the combined three-component factors, increased temperature (35°C) and lower RH (40%) reduced the viable populations on grapes. The interaction with elevated CO 2 improved the establishment of viable populations of the formulations tested. Viable populations greater than Log 4 CFUs per g were recovered from the grape surfaces suggesting that these had conserved resilience for control of Botrytis rot in grapes. The interaction between environmental factors that are expected to occur in response to climate change (CC) will have a significant impact on food security and availability. Little information exists on how elevated temperature, drought stress and increased CO 2 will have on the efficacy of biocontrol agents. The impact of these factors on the viability of different formulations of the biocontrol yeast Candida sake on the surface of grapes berries was evaluated for the first time. Such knowledge is critical for projecting the efficacy of biocontrol under climate change conditions and to identify formulations that have the necessary resilience to perform under CC conditions. © 2018 The Society for Applied Microbiology.

Analysis and mapping of present and future drought conditions over Greek areas with different climate conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paparrizos, Spyridon; Maris, Fotios; Weiler, Markus; Matzarakis, Andreas

2018-01-01

Estimation of drought in a certain temporal and spatial scale is crucial in climate change studies. The current study targets on three agricultural areas widespread in Greece, Ardas River Basin in Northeastern Greece, Sperchios River Basin in Central Greece, and Geropotamos River Basin in Crete Island in South Greece that are characterized by diverse climates as they are located in various regions. The objective is to assess the spatiotemporal variation of drought conditions prevailing in these areas. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to identify and assess the present and future drought conditions. Future simulated data were derived from a number of Regional Climatic Models (RCMs) from the ENSEMBLES European Project. The analysis was performed for the future periods of 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, implementing A1B and B1 scenarios. The spatial analysis of the drought conditions was performed using a combined downscaling technique and the Ordinary Kriging. The Mann-Kendall test was implemented for trend investigation. During both periods and scenarios, drought conditions will tend to be more severe in the upcoming years. The decrease of the SPI values in the Sperchios River Basin is expected to be the strongest, as it is the only study area that will show a negative balance (in SPI values), regarding the drought conditions. For the Ardas and the Geropotamos River Basins, a great increase of the drought conditions will occur during the 2021-2050 period, while for 2071-2100 period, the decrease will continue but it will be tempered. Nevertheless, the situation in all study areas according to the SPI classification is characterized as "Near-normal", in terms of drought conditions.

Numerical simulation of the effects of urban land-use changes on the local climate of multiple desert cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamal, S. M.; Huang, H. P.; Myint, S. W.

2016-12-01

This study quantifies the effect of urbanization on local climate by numerical simulations for multiple desert cities with a wide range of urban size, baseline climatology, and composition of land cover. The numerical experiments use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with multiple layers of nesting centered at a desert city. To extract the influence of land-use changes, twin runs are performed with each pair driven by the same time-varying lateral boundary conditions from reanalysis but different land surface conditions from Landsat observations for 1985 and 2010. The differences in the meteorological fields between the two runs are interpreted as the effects of land-use changes due to urbanization from 1985-2010. Using this strategy, simulations are carried out for five desert cities: (1) Las Vegas, United States, (2) Hotan, China, (3) Kharga, Egypt, (4) Beer Sheva, Israel, and (5) Jodhpur, India. The results of the simulations reveal a common pattern of the climatic effect of desert urbanization with nighttime warming but daytime cooling over areas where urbanization occurred. This effect is mainly confined to the urban area and is not sensitive to the size of the city or the detail of land cover in the surrounding non-urban areas. The pattern is similar in winter and summer. Exceptions to this pattern are found in a few cases in which the noisiness of local circulation, specifically monsoon and land-sea breeze, overwhelms the climatic signal induced by land-use changes. Although the local climatic responses to urbanization are qualitatively similar for the five desert cities, quantitative differences exist in the magnitudes of nighttime warming and daytime cooling. The possible reasons for those secondary differences are discussed.

Updating Known Distribution Models for Forecasting Climate Change Impact on Endangered Species

PubMed Central

Muñoz, Antonio-Román; Márquez, Ana Luz; Real, Raimundo

2013-01-01

To plan endangered species conservation and to design adequate management programmes, it is necessary to predict their distributional response to climate change, especially under the current situation of rapid change. However, these predictions are customarily done by relating de novo the distribution of the species with climatic conditions with no regard of previously available knowledge about the factors affecting the species distribution. We propose to take advantage of known species distribution models, but proceeding to update them with the variables yielded by climatic models before projecting them to the future. To exemplify our proposal, the availability of suitable habitat across Spain for the endangered Bonelli's Eagle (Aquila fasciata) was modelled by updating a pre-existing model based on current climate and topography to a combination of different general circulation models and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our results suggested that the main threat for this endangered species would not be climate change, since all forecasting models show that its distribution will be maintained and increased in mainland Spain for all the XXI century. We remark on the importance of linking conservation biology with distribution modelling by updating existing models, frequently available for endangered species, considering all the known factors conditioning the species' distribution, instead of building new models that are based on climate change variables only. PMID:23840330

Updating known distribution models for forecasting climate change impact on endangered species.

PubMed

Muñoz, Antonio-Román; Márquez, Ana Luz; Real, Raimundo

2013-01-01

To plan endangered species conservation and to design adequate management programmes, it is necessary to predict their distributional response to climate change, especially under the current situation of rapid change. However, these predictions are customarily done by relating de novo the distribution of the species with climatic conditions with no regard of previously available knowledge about the factors affecting the species distribution. We propose to take advantage of known species distribution models, but proceeding to update them with the variables yielded by climatic models before projecting them to the future. To exemplify our proposal, the availability of suitable habitat across Spain for the endangered Bonelli's Eagle (Aquila fasciata) was modelled by updating a pre-existing model based on current climate and topography to a combination of different general circulation models and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our results suggested that the main threat for this endangered species would not be climate change, since all forecasting models show that its distribution will be maintained and increased in mainland Spain for all the XXI century. We remark on the importance of linking conservation biology with distribution modelling by updating existing models, frequently available for endangered species, considering all the known factors conditioning the species' distribution, instead of building new models that are based on climate change variables only.

Projected continent-wide declines of the emperor penguin under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Holland, Marika; Stroeve, Julienne; Serreze, Mark; Barbraud, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri; Caswell, Hal

2014-08-01

Climate change has been projected to affect species distribution and future trends of local populations, but projections of global population trends are rare. We analyse global population trends of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri), an iconic Antarctic top predator, under the influence of sea ice conditions projected by coupled climate models assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) effort. We project the dynamics of all 45 known emperor penguin colonies by forcing a sea-ice-dependent demographic model with local, colony-specific, sea ice conditions projected through to the end of the twenty-first century. Dynamics differ among colonies, but by 2100 all populations are projected to be declining. At least two-thirds are projected to have declined by >50% from their current size. The global population is projected to have declined by at least 19%. Because criteria to classify species by their extinction risk are based on the global population dynamics, global analyses are critical for conservation. We discuss uncertainties arising in such global projections and the problems of defining conservation criteria for species endangered by future climate change.

Comparative glacio-climatological analysis of mass balance variability along the geographical margin of Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehoczky, Annamária; Kern, Zoltán; Pongrácz, Rita

2014-05-01

Glacio-climatological studies recognise glacier mass balance changes as high-confident climate indicators. The climatic sensitivity of a glacier does not simply depend on regional climate variability but also influenced via large- and mesoscale atmospheric circulation patterns. This study focuses on recent changes in the mass balance using records from three border regions of Europe, and investigates the relationships between the seasonal mass balance components, regional climatic conditions, and distant atmospheric forcing. Since glaciers in different macro-climatological conditions (i.e., mid-latitudes or high-latitudes, dry-continental or maritime regions) may present strongly diverse mass balance characteristics, the three analysed regions were selected from different glacierised macroregions (using the database of the World Glacier Monitoring Service). These regions belong to the Caucasus Mountains (Central Europe macroregion), the Polar Ural (Northern Asia macroregion), and Svalbard (Arctic Islands macroregion). The analysis focuses on winter, summer, and annual mass balance series of eight glaciers. The climatic variables (atmospheric pressure, air temperature, precipitation) and indices of teleconnection patterns (e.g., North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation) are used from the gridded databases of the University of East Anglia, Climatic Research Unit and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Center for Environmental Prediction. However, the period and length of available mass balance data in the selected regions vary greatly (the first full record is in 1958, Polar Ural; the last is in 2010, Caucasus Mountains), a comparative analysis can be carried out for the period of 1968-1981. Since glaciers from different regions respond to large- and mesoscale climatic forcings differently, and because the mass balance of glaciers within a region often co-vary, our specific objectives are (i) to examine the variability and the integrative climatic signal in the averaged mass balance records of the selected regions; (ii) to analyse the possible coupling between the mass balance and climatic variables, including the dominant patterns of Northern Hemisphere climate variability; and (iii) to compare the main characteristics of the three regions. Furthermore, (iv) a short discussion is given considering the significant decreasing trend of the cumulative annual mass balances in every region under the detected climatic changes in the second half of the 20th century. Preliminary results suggest that the strongest teleconnection links could be between winter mass balance and winter NAO for the Polar Ural (r=0.46, p<0.05), and between annual mass balance and PDO for Svalbard (r=-0.43, p<0.05). Neither seasonal, nor annual mass balance records showed significant correlation with any of the examined circulation indices for the Caucasus.

Time-lag effects of global vegetation responses to climate change.

PubMed

Wu, Donghai; Zhao, Xiang; Liang, Shunlin; Zhou, Tao; Huang, Kaicheng; Tang, Bijian; Zhao, Wenqian

2015-09-01

Climate conditions significantly affect vegetation growth in terrestrial ecosystems. Due to the spatial heterogeneity of ecosystems, the vegetation responses to climate vary considerably with the diverse spatial patterns and the time-lag effects, which are the most important mechanism of climate-vegetation interactive effects. Extensive studies focused on large-scale vegetation-climate interactions use the simultaneous meteorological and vegetation indicators to develop models; however, the time-lag effects are less considered, which tends to increase uncertainty. In this study, we aim to quantitatively determine the time-lag effects of global vegetation responses to different climatic factors using the GIMMS3g NDVI time series and the CRU temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation datasets. First, this study analyzed the time-lag effects of global vegetation responses to different climatic factors. Then, a multiple linear regression model and partial correlation model were established to statistically analyze the roles of different climatic factors on vegetation responses, from which the primary climate-driving factors for different vegetation types were determined. The results showed that (i) both the time-lag effects of the vegetation responses and the major climate-driving factors that significantly affect vegetation growth varied significantly at the global scale, which was related to the diverse vegetation and climate characteristics; (ii) regarding the time-lag effects, the climatic factors explained 64% variation of the global vegetation growth, which was 11% relatively higher than the model ignoring the time-lag effects; (iii) for the area with a significant change trend (for the period 1982-2008) in the global GIMMS3g NDVI (P < 0.05), the primary driving factor was temperature; and (iv) at the regional scale, the variation in vegetation growth was also related to human activities and natural disturbances. Considering the time-lag effects is quite important for better predicting and evaluating the vegetation dynamics under the background of global climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Interactions between urban heat islands and heat waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Lei; Oppenheimer, Michael; Zhu, Qing; Baldwin, Jane W.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Bou-Zeid, Elie; Guan, Kaiyu; Liu, Xu

2018-03-01

Heat waves (HWs) are among the most damaging climate extremes to human society. Climate models consistently project that HW frequency, severity, and duration will increase markedly over this century. For urban residents, the urban heat island (UHI) effect further exacerbates the heat stress resulting from HWs. Here we use a climate model to investigate the interactions between the UHI and HWs in 50 cities in the United States under current climate and future warming scenarios. We examine UHI2m (defined as urban-rural difference in 2m-height air temperature) and UHIs (defined as urban-rural difference in radiative surface temperature). Our results show significant sensitivity of the interaction between UHI and HWs to local background climate and warming scenarios. Sensitivity also differs between daytime and nighttime. During daytime, cities in the temperate climate region show significant synergistic effects between UHI and HWs in current climate, with an average of 0.4 K higher UHI2m or 2.8 K higher UHIs during HWs than during normal days. These synergistic effects, however, diminish in future warmer climates. In contrast, the daytime synergistic effects for cities in dry regions are insignificant in the current climate, but emerge in future climates. At night, the synergistic effects are similar across climate regions in the current climate, and are stronger in future climate scenarios. We use a biophysical factorization method to disentangle the mechanisms behind the interactions between UHI and HWs that explain the spatial-temporal patterns of the interactions. Results show that the difference in the increase of urban versus rural evaporation and enhanced anthropogenic heat emissions (air conditioning energy use) during HWs are key contributors to the synergistic effects during daytime. The contrast in water availability between urban and rural land plays an important role in determining the contribution of evaporation. At night, the enhanced release of stored and anthropogenic heat during HWs are the primary contributors to the synergistic effects.

Coastal fog, climate change, and the environment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Torregrosa, Alicia; O'Brien, Travis A.; Faloona, Ian C.

2014-01-01

Coastal marine fog, a characteristic feature of climates generated at the eastern boundaries of ocean basins worldwide, evokes different feelings in those who experience it (see Figure 1). Authors and poets use fog to represent mystery, bleakness, and confusion. Film directors seek out fog to shroud scenes in eerie gloominess. Tourists visiting beaches bemoan the cool and damp conditions that create a striking contrast to the sunny warm conditions typically found less than a few kilometers inland. Airline passengers delayed by fog impatiently wait for the skies to clear. Residents get used to the Sun “rising” in midday after fog dissipates.

Under which climate and soil conditions the plant productivity-precipitation relationship is linear or nonlinear?

PubMed

Ye, Jian-Sheng; Pei, Jiu-Ying; Fang, Chao

2018-03-01

Understanding under which climate and soil conditions the plant productivity-precipitation relationship is linear or nonlinear is useful for accurately predicting the response of ecosystem function to global environmental change. Using long-term (2000-2016) net primary productivity (NPP)-precipitation datasets derived from satellite observations, we identify >5600pixels in the North Hemisphere landmass that fit either linear or nonlinear temporal NPP-precipitation relationships. Differences in climate (precipitation, radiation, ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration, temperature) and soil factors (nitrogen, phosphorous, organic carbon, field capacity) between the linear and nonlinear types are evaluated. Our analysis shows that both linear and nonlinear types exhibit similar interannual precipitation variabilities and occurrences of extreme precipitation. Permutational multivariate analysis of variance suggests that linear and nonlinear types differ significantly regarding to radiation, ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration, and soil factors. The nonlinear type possesses lower radiation and/or less soil nutrients than the linear type, thereby suggesting that nonlinear type features higher degree of limitation from resources other than precipitation. This study suggests several factors limiting the responses of plant productivity to changes in precipitation, thus causing nonlinear NPP-precipitation pattern. Precipitation manipulation and modeling experiments should combine with changes in other climate and soil factors to better predict the response of plant productivity under future climate. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Integrated monitoring and information systems for managing aquatic invasive species in a changing climate.

PubMed

Lee, Henry; Reusser, Deborah A; Olden, Julian D; Smith, Scott S; Graham, Jim; Burkett, Virginia; Dukes, Jeffrey S; Piorkowski, Robert J; McPhedran, John

2008-06-01

Changes in temperature, precipitation, and other climatic drivers and sea-level rise will affect populations of existing native and non-native aquatic species and the vulnerability of aquatic environments to new invasions. Monitoring surveys provide the foundation for assessing the combined effects of climate change and invasions by providing baseline biotic and environmental conditions, although the utility of a survey depends on whether the results are quantitative or qualitative, and other design considerations. The results from a variety of monitoring programs in the United States are available in integrated biological information systems, although many include only non-native species, not native species. Besides including natives, we suggest these systems could be improved through the development of standardized methods that capture habitat and physiological requirements and link regional and national biological databases into distributed Web portals that allow drawing information from multiple sources. Combining the outputs from these biological information systems with environmental data would allow the development of ecological-niche models that predict the potential distribution or abundance of native and non-native species on the basis of current environmental conditions. Environmental projections from climate models can be used in these niche models to project changes in species distributions or abundances under altered climatic conditions and to identify potential high-risk invaders. There are, however, a number of challenges, such as uncertainties associated with projections from climate and niche models and difficulty in integrating data with different temporal and spatial granularity. Even with these uncertainties, integration of biological and environmental information systems, niche models, and climate projections would improve management of aquatic ecosystems under the dual threats of biotic invasions and climate change.

Fatal Exertional Heat Stroke and American Football Players: The Need for Regional Heat-Safety Guidelines.

PubMed

Grundstein, Andrew J; Hosokawa, Yuri; Casa, Douglas J

2018-01-01

  Weather-based activity modification in athletics is an important way to minimize heat illnesses. However, many commonly used heat-safety guidelines include a uniform set of heat-stress thresholds that do not account for geographic differences in acclimatization.   To determine if heat-related fatalities among American football players occurred on days with unusually stressful weather conditions based on the local climate and to assess the need for regional heat-safety guidelines.   Cross-sectional study.   Data from incidents of fatal exertional heat stroke (EHS) in American football players were obtained from the National Center for Catastrophic Sport Injury Research and the Korey Stringer Institute.   Sixty-one American football players at all levels of competition with fatal EHSs from 1980 to 2014.   We used the wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) and a z-score WBGT standardized to local climate conditions from 1991 to 2010 to assess the absolute and relative magnitudes of heat stress, respectively.   We observed a poleward decrease in exposure WBGTs during fatal EHSs. In milder climates, 80% of cases occurred at above-average WBGTs, and 50% occurred at WBGTs greater than 1 standard deviation from the long-term mean; however, in hotter climates, half of the cases occurred at near average or below average WBGTs.   The combination of lower exposure WBGTs and frequent extreme climatic values in milder climates during fatal EHSs indicates the need for regional activity-modification guidelines with lower, climatically appropriate weather-based thresholds. Established activity-modification guidelines, such as those from the American College of Sports Medicine, work well in the hotter climates, such as the southern United States, where hot and humid weather conditions are common.

Integrated monitoring and information systems for managing aquatic invasive species in a changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lee, Henry; Reusser, Deborah A.; Olden, Julian D.; Smith, Scott S.; Graham, Jim; Burkett, Virginia; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Piorkowski, Robert J.; Mcphedran, John

2008-01-01

Changes in temperature, precipitation, and other climatic drivers and sea-level rise will affect populations of existing native and non-native aquatic species and the vulnerability of aquatic environments to new invasions. Monitoring surveys provide the foundation for assessing the combined effects of climate change and invasions by providing baseline biotic and environmental conditions, although the utility of a survey depends on whether the results are quantitative or qualitative, and other design considerations. The results from a variety of monitoring programs in the United States are available in integrated biological information systems, although many include only non-native species, not native species. Besides including natives, we suggest these systems could be improved through the development of standardized methods that capture habitat and physiological requirements and link regional and national biological databases into distributed Web portals that allow drawing information from multiple sources. Combining the outputs from these biological information systems with environmental data would allow the development of ecological-niche models that predict the potential distribution or abundance of native and non-native species on the basis of current environmental conditions. Environmental projections from climate models can be used in these niche models to project changes in species distributions or abundances under altered climatic conditions and to identify potential high-risk invaders. There are, however, a number of challenges, such as uncertainties associated with projections from climate and niche models and difficulty in integrating data with different temporal and spatial granularity. Even with these uncertainties, integration of biological and environmental information systems, niche models, and climate projections would improve management of aquatic ecosystems under the dual threats of biotic invasions and climate change

Tectonic and climatic control on evolution of rift lakes in the Central Kenya Rift, East Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bergner, A. G. N.; Strecker, M. R.; Trauth, M. H.; Deino, A.; Gasse, F.; Blisniuk, P.; Dühnforth, M.

2009-12-01

The long-term histories of the neighboring Nakuru-Elmenteita and Naivasha lake basins in the Central Kenya Rift illustrate the relative importance of tectonic versus climatic effects on rift-lake evolution and the formation of disparate sedimentary environments. Although modern climate conditions in the Central Kenya Rift are very similar for these basins, hydrology and hydrochemistry of present-day lakes Nakuru, Elmenteita and Naivasha contrast dramatically due to tectonically controlled differences in basin geometries, catchment size, and fluvial processes. In this study, we use eighteen 14C and 40Ar/ 39Ar dated fluvio-lacustrine sedimentary sections to unravel the spatiotemporal evolution of the lake basins in response to tectonic and climatic influences. We reconstruct paleoclimatic and ecological trends recorded in these basins based on fossil diatom assemblages and geologic field mapping. Our study shows a tendency towards increasing alkalinity and shrinkage of water bodies in both lake basins during the last million years. Ongoing volcano-tectonic segmentation of the lake basins, as well as reorganization of upstream drainage networks have led to contrasting hydrologic regimes with adjacent alkaline and freshwater conditions. During extreme wet periods in the past, such as during the early Holocene climate optimum, lake levels were high and all basins evolved toward freshwater systems. During drier periods some of these lakes revert back to alkaline conditions, while others maintain freshwater characteristics. Our results have important implications for the use and interpretation of lake sediment as climate archives in tectonically active regions and emphasize the need to deconvolve lacustrine records with respect to tectonics versus climatic forcing mechanisms.

Probabilistic Water Availability Prediction in the Rio Grande Basin using Large-scale Circulation Indices as Precursor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khedun, C. P.; Mishra, A. K.; Giardino, J. R.; Singh, V. P.

2011-12-01

Hydrometeorological conditions, and therefore water availability, is affected by large-scale circulation indices. In the Rio Grande, which is a transboundary basin shared between the United States and Mexico, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence local hydrological conditions. Different sub-regions of the basin exhibit varying degrees of correlation, but in general, an increase (decrease) in runoff during El Niños (La Niñas) is noted. Positive PDO enhances the effect of El Niño and dampens the negative effect of La Niña, and when it is in its neutral/transition phase, La Niña dominates climatic conditions and reduces water availability. Further, lags of up to 3 months have been found between ENSO and precipitation in the basin. We hypothesize that (1) a trivariate statistical relationship can be established between the two climate indices and water availability, and (2) the relationship can be used to predict water availability based on projected PDO and ENSO conditions. We use copula to establish the dependence between climate indices and water availability. Water availability is generated from Noah land surface model (LSM), forced with the North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 (NLDAS-2). The model is run within NASA GSFC's Land Information System. LSM generated runoff gives a more realistic picture of available surface water as it is not affected by anthropogenic changes, such as the construction of dams, diversions, and other land use land cover changes, which may obscure climatic influences. Marginals from climate indices and runoff are from different distribution families, thus conventional functional forms of multivariate frequency distributions cannot be employed. Copulas offer a viable alternative as marginals from different families can be combined into a joint distribution. Uncertainties in the statistical relationship can be determined and the statistical model can be used for prediction purposes. The outcome of the study can provide advanced warning on the expected state of surface water, based on projected ENSO and PDO conditions. Such warning may help trigger drought management plans in both the US and Mexico for example, and ensure the long-term sustainable management of water in the basin.

Temporal Differences in the Hydrologic Regime of the Lower Platte River, Nebraska, 1895-2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ginting, Daniel; Zelt, Ronald B.; Linard, Joshua I.

2008-01-01

In cooperation with the Lower Platte South Natural Resources District for a collaborative study of the cumulative effects of water and channel management practices on stream and riparian ecology, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) compiled, analyzed, and summarized hydrologic information from long-term gaging stations on the lower Platte River to determine any significant temporal differences among six discrete periods during 1895-2006 and to interpret any significant changes in relation to changes in climatic conditions or other factors. A subset of 171 examined hydrologic indices (HIs) were selected for use as indices that (1) included most of the variance in the larger set of indices, (2) retained utility as indicators of the streamflow regime, and (3) provided information at spatial and temporal scale(s) that were most indicative of streamflow regime(s). The study included the most downstream station within the central Platte River segment that flowed to the confluence with the Loup River and all four active streamflow-gaging stations (2006) on the lower Platte River main stem extending from the confluence of the Loup River and Platte River to the confluence of the Platte River and Missouri River south of Omaha. The drainage areas of the five streamflow-gaging stations covered four (of eight) climate divisions in Nebraska?division 2 (north central), 3 (northeast), 5 (central), and 6 (east central). Historical climate data and daily streamflow records from 1895 through 2006 at the five streamflow-gaging stations were divided into six 11-water-year periods: 1895?1905, 1934?44, 1951?61, 1966?76, 1985?95, and 1996?2006. Analysis of monthly climate variables?precipitation and Palmer Hydrological Drought Index?was used to determine the degree of hydroclimatic association between streamflow and climate. Except for the 1895?1905 period, data gaps in the streamflow record were filled by data estimation techniques, and 171 hydrologic indices were calculated using the Hydroecological Integrity Assessment Process software developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. A subset of 27 nonredundant indices (of the 171 indices) was selected using principal component analysis. Indices that described monthly streamflow?mean, maximum, minimum, skewness, and coefficients of variation?also were used. Comparison of these selected indices allowed determination of temporal differences among the six 11-water-year periods for each gaging station. The lower Platte River basin was affected by moderate to severe drought conditions in the 1934?44 period. The widespread drought was preceded by mildly to moderately wet conditions in the 1895?1906 period, followed by incipient drought to incipiently wet conditions in the 1951?61 periods and mildly wet conditions in 1966?76 period, moderately wet conditions in the 1985?1995 period, and incipient drought to mildly wet conditions in the 1996?2006 period. Monthly streamflow of the Platte River from Duncan through Louisville, Nebraska, correlated significantly with the monthly Palmer Hydrological Drought Index. Temporal differences in median values of monthly-mean and monthly-maximum streamflow measured at Duncan, North Bend, and Ashland stations between the two moderately wet periods (1895?1905 and 1985?95) indicated that streamflow storage reservoirs and regulation some time after 1906 significantly reduced monthly streamflow magnitude and amplitude?the difference between the highest and lowest median values of monthly mean streamflow. Effects of storage reservoirs on the median values of monthly-minimum streamflow were less obvious. Temporal differences among the other five periods, from 1934 through 2006 when streamflow was affected by storage and regulation, indicated the predominant effects of contrasting climate conditions on median values of monthly mean, maximum, and minimum streamflow. Significant temporal differences in monthly streamflow values were evident mainly between the two periods of greatly

Modelling the interactions between vegetation and climate from the Cretaceous to the Eocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loptson, Claire; Lunt, Dan; Francis, Jane

2013-04-01

The climates during the Cretaceous (~144 to 66 Ma) and the early Eocene (~56 to 48 Ma) were much warmer than the present day. Atmospheric CO2 levels for these past climates have a large uncertainty associated with them, but were possibly as high as 2000 to 3000 ppm for the early Eocene (Beerling and Royer, 2011; Lowenstein and Demicco, 2006) and maximum values are thought to range from 800 to 1800 ppm during the Cretaceous (Royer et al., 2012). Current modelling efforts have had great difficulty in replicating the shallow latitudinal temperature gradient indicated by proxy data for these time periods (e.g. Heinemann et al., 2009; Winguth et al., 2010; Shellito et al., 2009). Mechanisms that can result in such a low temperature gradient have not been found (Winguth et al., 2010; Beerling et al., 2011; Sloan and Morrill, 1998), but a contributing factor could be that not all climate feedbacks are included in these models. Vegetation feedbacks have been shown to be especially important (e.g. Otto-Bliesner and Upchurch, 1997; Bonan, 2008) so by including a more accurate representation of vegetation in the climate model, the model-data discrepancies may be reduced. A fully coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM, HadCM3L, coupled to a dynamic global vegetation model (TRIFFID), was used to simulate the climate and the predicted vegetation distributions for and the early Eocene and 12 different time slices representing different ages throughout the Cretaceous at 4x pre-industrial CO2. The only difference in the way these simulations were set up are different boundary conditions that are specific to that time period, e.g. different solar constants and paleogeographies. This allows a direct comparison between the time slices. We present the changes in climate, and therefore vegetation, during the Cretaceous due to changes in these boundary conditions alone, with a focus on Antarctica. Additional Eocene simulations were also carried out with a) fixed globally-uniform vegetation and b) a prescribed vegetation distribution as predicted by the TRIFFID model, but with TRIFFID turned off i.e. the vegetation distribution was fixed, not dynamic. All three Eocene simulations were also run for 2x pre-industrial CO2, allowing the effects of changing CO2 on climate and vegetation to be analysed. We present the effects of different vegetation representations included in a GCM on the early Eocene climate. In addition, climate sensitivity and sensitivity of vegetation to atmospheric CO2 concentration during the early Eocene are investigated. Modelled vegetation types are compared to fossil data to evaluate the performance of TRIFFID for these paleoclimate simulations.

Introduction to Building Systems Performance: Houses That Work II. Revised February 2005

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

2005-03-01

Buildings should be suited to their environments. Design and construction must be responsive to varying seismic risks, wind loads, and snow loads, as well as soil conditions, frost depth, orientation, and solar radiation. In addition, building envelopes and mechanical systems should be designed for a specific hygro-thermal regions, rain exposure, and interior climate. The Building Science Consortium (BSC) design recommendations are based on the hygro-thermal regions with reference to the annual rainfall. Local climate must be addressed if it differs significantly from the climate described for a particular design.

Characterization and Quantification of Uncertainty in the NARCCAP Regional Climate Model Ensemble and Application to Impacts on Water Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mearns, L. O.; Sain, S. R.; McGinnis, S. A.; Steinschneider, S.; Brown, C. M.

2015-12-01

In this talk we present the development of a joint Bayesian Probabilistic Model for the climate change results of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) that uses a unique prior in the model formulation. We use the climate change results (joint distribution of seasonal temperature and precipitation changes (future vs. current)) from the global climate models (GCMs) that provided boundary conditions for the six different regional climate models used in the program as informative priors for the bivariate Bayesian Model. The two variables involved are seasonal temperature and precipitation over sub-regions (i.e., Bukovsky Regions) of the full NARCCAP domain. The basic approach to the joint Bayesian hierarchical model follows the approach of Tebaldi and Sansó (2009). We compare model results using informative (i.e., GCM information) as well as uninformative priors. We apply these results to the Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP) model for the Colorado Springs Utility in Colorado. We investigate the layout of the joint pdfs in the context of the water model sensitivities to ranges of temperature and precipitation results to determine the likelihoods of future climate conditions that cannot be accommodated by possible adaptation options. Comparisons may also be made with joint pdfs formed from the CMIP5 collection of global climate models and empirically downscaled to the region of interest.

Forecasting the Future Risk of Barmah Forest Virus Disease under Climate Change Scenarios in Queensland, Australia

PubMed Central

Naish, Suchithra; Mengersen, Kerrie; Hu, Wenbiao; Tong, Shilu

2013-01-01

Background Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. Methods/Principal Findings We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000–2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. Conclusions/Significance We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland. PMID:23690959

Changes in Concurrent Risk of Warm and Dry Years under Impact of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarhadi, A.; Wiper, M.; Touma, D. E.; Ausín, M. C.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.

2017-12-01

Anthropogenic global warming has changed the nature and the risk of extreme climate phenomena. The changing concurrence of multiple climatic extremes (warm and dry years) may result in intensification of undesirable consequences for water resources, human and ecosystem health, and environmental equity. The present study assesses how global warming influences the probability that warm and dry years co-occur in a global scale. In the first step of the study a designed multivariate Mann-Kendall trend analysis is used to detect the areas in which the concurrence of warm and dry years has increased in the historical climate records and also climate models in the global scale. The next step investigates the concurrent risk of the extremes under dynamic nonstationary conditions. A fully generalized multivariate risk framework is designed to evolve through time under dynamic nonstationary conditions. In this methodology, Bayesian, dynamic copulas are developed to model the time-varying dependence structure between the two different climate extremes (warm and dry years). The results reveal an increasing trend in the concurrence risk of warm and dry years, which are in agreement with the multivariate trend analysis from historical and climate models. In addition to providing a novel quantification of the changing probability of compound extreme events, the results of this study can help decision makers develop short- and long-term strategies to prepare for climate stresses now and in the future.

Uncertainties in the Modelled CO2 Threshold for Antarctic Glaciation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gasson, E.; Lunt, D. J.; DeConto, R.; Goldner, A.; Heinemann, M.; Huber, M.; LeGrande, A. N.; Pollard, D.; Sagoo, N.; Siddall, M.;

Implications of global warming for regional climate and water resources of tropical islands: Case studies over Sri Lanka and Puerto Rico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mawalagedara, R.; Kumar, D.; Oglesby, R. J.; Ganguly, A. R.

2013-12-01

The IPCC AR4 identifies small islands as particularly vulnerable to climate change. Here we consider the cases of two tropical islands: Sri Lanka in the Indian Ocean and Puerto Rico in the Caribbean. The islands share a predominantly tropical climate with diverse topography and hence significant spatial variability of regional climate. Seasonal variability in temperatures is relatively small, but spatial variations can be large owing to topography. Precipitation mechanisms and patterns over the two islands are different however. Sri Lanka receives a majority of the annual rainfall from the summer and winter monsoons, with convective rainfall dominating in the inter-monsoon period. Rainfall generating mechanisms over Puerto Rico can range from orographic lifting, disturbances embedded in Easterly waves and synoptic frontal systems. Here we compare the projected changes in the regional and seasonal means and extremes of temperature and precipitation over the two islands during the middle of this century with the present conditions. Two 5-year regional climate model runs for each region, representing the present (2006-2010) and future (2056-2060) conditions, are performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with the lateral boundary conditions provided using the output from CCSM4 RCP8.5 greenhouse gas emissions pathway simulation from the CMIP5 ensemble. The consequences of global warming for water resources and the overall economy are examined. While both economies have substantial contributions from tourism, there are major differences: The agricultural sector is much more important over Sri Lanka compared to Puerto Rico, while the latter exhibits no recent growth in population or in urbanization trends unlike the former. Policy implications for water sustainability and security are discussed, which highlight how despite the differences, certain lessons learned may generalize across the two relatively small tropical islands, which in turn have diverse economic, infrastructural, and societal constraints.

Future climate change impact assessment of watershed scale hydrologic processes in Peninsular Malaysia by a regional climate model coupled with a physically-based hydrology modelo.

PubMed

Amin, M Z M; Shaaban, A J; Ercan, A; Ishida, K; Kavvas, M L; Chen, Z Q; Jang, S

2017-01-01

Impacts of climate change on the hydrologic processes under future climate change conditions were assessed over Muda and Dungun watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate and physically-based hydrology model utilizing an ensemble of future climate change projections. An ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations from coarse resolution global climate models' (GCMs) projections for the 21st century was dynamically downscaled to 6km resolution over Peninsular Malaysia by a regional climate model, which was then coupled with the watershed hydrology model WEHY through the atmospheric boundary layer over Muda and Dungun watersheds. Hydrologic simulations were carried out at hourly increments and at hillslope-scale in order to assess the impacts of climate change on the water balances and flooding conditions in the 21st century. The coupled regional climate and hydrology model was simulated for a duration of 90years for each of the 15 realizations. It is demonstrated that the increase in mean monthly flows due to the impact of expected climate change during 2040-2100 is statistically significant from April to May and from July to October at Muda watershed. Also, the increase in mean monthly flows is shown to be significant in November during 2030-2070 and from November to December during 2070-2100 at Dungun watershed. In other words, the impact of the expected climate change will be significant during the northeast and southwest monsoon seasons at Muda watershed and during the northeast monsoon season at Dungun watershed. Furthermore, the flood frequency analyses for both watersheds indicated an overall increasing trend in the second half of the 21st century. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Projecting the Global Distribution of the Emerging Amphibian Fungal Pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Based on IPCC Climate Futures.

PubMed

Xie, Gisselle Yang; Olson, Deanna H; Blaustein, Andrew R

2016-01-01

Projected changes in climate conditions are emerging as significant risk factors to numerous species, affecting habitat conditions and community interactions. Projections suggest species range shifts in response to climate change modifying environmental suitability and is supported by observational evidence. Both pathogens and their hosts can shift ranges with climate change. We consider how climate change may influence the distribution of the emerging infectious amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), a pathogen associated with worldwide amphibian population losses. Using an expanded global Bd database and a novel modeling approach, we examined a broad set of climate metrics to model the Bd-climate niche globally and regionally, then project how climate change may influence Bd distributions. Previous research showed that Bd distribution is dependent on climatic variables, in particular temperature. We trained a machine-learning model (random forest) with the most comprehensive global compilation of Bd sampling records (~5,000 site-level records, mid-2014 summary), including 13 climatic variables. We projected future Bd environmental suitability under IPCC scenarios. The learning model was trained with combined worldwide data (non-region specific) and also separately per region (region-specific). One goal of our study was to estimate of how Bd spatial risks may change under climate change based on the best available data. Our models supported differences in Bd-climate relationships among geographic regions. We projected that Bd ranges will shift into higher latitudes and altitudes due to increased environmental suitability in those regions under predicted climate change. Specifically, our model showed a broad expansion of areas environmentally suitable for establishment of Bd on amphibian hosts in the temperate zones of the Northern Hemisphere. Our projections are useful for the development of monitoring designs in these areas, especially for sensitive species and those vulnerable to multiple threats.

Local-scale changes in mean and heavy precipitation in Western Europe, climate change or internal variability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aalbers, Emma E.; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; van den Hurk, Bart J. J. M.

2018-06-01

High-resolution climate information provided by e.g. regional climate models (RCMs) is valuable for exploring the changing weather under global warming, and assessing the local impact of climate change. While there is generally more confidence in the representativeness of simulated processes at higher resolutions, internal variability of the climate system—`noise', intrinsic to the chaotic nature of atmospheric and oceanic processes—is larger at smaller spatial scales as well, limiting the predictability of the climate signal. To quantify the internal variability and robustly estimate the climate signal, large initial-condition ensembles of climate simulations conducted with a single model provide essential information. We analyze a regional downscaling of a 16-member initial-condition ensemble over western Europe and the Alps at 0.11° resolution, similar to the highest resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations. We examine the strength of the forced climate response (signal) in mean and extreme daily precipitation with respect to noise due to internal variability, and find robust small-scale geographical features in the forced response, indicating regional differences in changes in the probability of events. However, individual ensemble members provide only limited information on the forced climate response, even for high levels of global warming. Although the results are based on a single RCM-GCM chain, we believe that they have general value in providing insight in the fraction of the uncertainty in high-resolution climate information that is irreducible, and can assist in the correct interpretation of fine-scale information in multi-model ensembles in terms of a forced response and noise due to internal variability.

Modelling Bambara Groundnut Yield in Southern Africa: Towards a Climate-Resilient Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Karunaratne, A. S.; Walker, S.; Ruane, A. C.

2015-01-01

Current agriculture depends on a few major species grown as monocultures that are supported by global research underpinning current productivity. However, many hundreds of alternative crops have the potential to meet real world challenges by sustaining humanity, diversifying agricultural systems for food and nutritional security, and especially responding to climate change through their resilience to certain climate conditions. Bambara groundnut (Vigna subterranea (L.) Verdc.), an underutilised African legume, is an exemplar crop for climate resilience. Predicted yield performances of Bambara groundnut by AquaCrop (a crop-water productivity model) were evaluated for baseline (1980-2009) and mid-century climates (2040-2069) under 20 downscaled Global Climate Models (CMIP5-RCP8.5), as well as for climate sensitivities (AgMIPC3MP) across 3 locations in Southern Africa (Botswana, South Africa, Namibia). Different land - races of Bambara groundnut originating from various semi-arid African locations showed diverse yield performances with diverse sensitivities to climate. S19 originating from hot-dry conditions in Namibia has greater future yield potential compared to the Swaziland landrace Uniswa Red-UN across study sites. South Africa has the lowest yield under the current climate, indicating positive future yield trends. Namibia reported the highest baseline yield at optimum current temperatures, indicating less yield potential in future climates. Bambara groundnut shows positive yield potential at temperatures of up to 31degC, with further warming pushing yields down. Thus, many regions in Southern Africa can utilize Bambara groundnut successfully in the coming decades. This modelling exercise supports decisions on genotypic suitability for present and future climates at specific locations.

Local-scale changes in mean and heavy precipitation in Western Europe, climate change or internal variability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aalbers, Emma E.; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; van den Hurk, Bart J. J. M.

2017-09-01

High-resolution climate information provided by e.g. regional climate models (RCMs) is valuable for exploring the changing weather under global warming, and assessing the local impact of climate change. While there is generally more confidence in the representativeness of simulated processes at higher resolutions, internal variability of the climate system—`noise', intrinsic to the chaotic nature of atmospheric and oceanic processes—is larger at smaller spatial scales as well, limiting the predictability of the climate signal. To quantify the internal variability and robustly estimate the climate signal, large initial-condition ensembles of climate simulations conducted with a single model provide essential information. We analyze a regional downscaling of a 16-member initial-condition ensemble over western Europe and the Alps at 0.11° resolution, similar to the highest resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations. We examine the strength of the forced climate response (signal) in mean and extreme daily precipitation with respect to noise due to internal variability, and find robust small-scale geographical features in the forced response, indicating regional differences in changes in the probability of events. However, individual ensemble members provide only limited information on the forced climate response, even for high levels of global warming. Although the results are based on a single RCM-GCM chain, we believe that they have general value in providing insight in the fraction of the uncertainty in high-resolution climate information that is irreducible, and can assist in the correct interpretation of fine-scale information in multi-model ensembles in terms of a forced response and noise due to internal variability.

Using Terrestrial GCMs to Understand Climate on Venus, Mars and Titan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lebonnois, S.; Forget, F.; Hourdin, F.

2008-12-01

For many decades now, General Circulation Models have been developed for the Earth to model our climate. Using these tools, which complexity and efficiency increase with years and computers power, many features of the Earth's circulation may be analyzed and interpreted. But the Earth is a unique case, with rapid rotation rate, with seasons, with water oceans. The Earth GCMs have many parameters finely tuned to reproduce the many observations that are available. How robust are these models under evolving conditions ? To what point may we trust them when exploring Earth's future ? Earth, Venus, Mars and also Titan have dense atmospheres that present many differences, but also similarities. How mechanisms that are at work in the Earth's atmosphere do adapt under these different conditions ? Why are Venus and Titan's atmospheres in super-rotation ? Are the Martian storms produced by processes that also happen on the Earth ? Using the GCMs developed for the Earth for these different atmospheres is very appealing to study these questions. Though the amount of available data is much less for extraterrestrial atmospheres, adapting the terrestrial GCMs to these different environments is worth the effort. Even if the dynamical core may be used almost as it is, adapting the physical parameterizations is not straightforward, but based on the increasing amount of observational data, it may be done with more and more accuracy. These extraterrestrial GCMs may now be used to understand the different features of these climates, but also to compare the different behaviors of these atmospheres under different forcings. It explores the robustness of this kind of tools under widly different conditions, putting strength and confidence in our exploration of Earth's atmosphere future evolution. In this talk, we will present the adaptations that have been necessary to develop GCMs for Mars, Titan and Venus from the LMDZ Earth GCM. These models have then followed their own developments, with many successes in understanding these climates. We will also give exemples of mutual benefits, related to the common base for all these models.

Reduced Microbial Resilience after a 17-Year Climate Gradient Transplant Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bailey, V. L.; Fansler, S.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Liu, C.; Smith, J. L.; Bolton, H.

2012-12-01

In 1994, a reciprocal soil transplant experiment was initiated between two elevations (310 m, warmer and drier, and 844 m, cooler and wetter) on Rattlesnake Mountain in southeastern Washington, USA. The original experiment sought to detect whether the microbial and biochemical dynamics developed under cool, moist conditions would be destabilized under hot, dry conditions. In March 2012 we resampled the original transplanted soils, control cores transplanted in situ, and native soils from each elevation, to study longer-term changes in microbial community composition, soil C and N dynamics, and soil physical structure. These resampled cores were randomly assigned to climate-control chambers simulating the diurnal conditions at either the lower or upper sites. We monitored respiration over 100 days, and couple these data with biogeochemical analyses conducted at time-zero, and at the end of the experiment, to examine the consequences of long-term climate change on microbial C cycling under new environmental stresses. All soil types incubated respired more C while in the simulated hotter, drier climate compared with the cooler, moister condition, except for those that had been transplanted from the lower elevation to the upper elevation in 1994, which actually respired less when returned to this, their original climate. These soils also exhibited almost no temperature sensitivity (Q10=1.07, 13-33 °C). Soils incubated in the cooler, moister chamber had greater N-acetylglucosaminidase and β-glucosidase potentials, suggesting that while loss of C as carbon dioxide respiration is reduced under these conditions, internal cycling of C may be enhanced. Ribosomal intergenic spacer analysis was used to fingerprint the bacterial community of all of these soils to identify possible high-level shifts in community composition in the 0-5, 5-10, and deeper depths in these soils. These results suggest that climate change has significantly altered the C dynamics in these soils, and that even after 17 years of adaptation, the soil microbial communities have not recovered to a condition similar to their new environment. These soils also appear to have lost some of their resilience to subsequent climate perturbations, raising more general questions of how current climate change will affect the capacity of soils to buffer against future, different perturbations.

Morpho-Physiological Variation of White Spruce Seedlings from Various Seed Sources and Implications for Deployment under Climate Change

PubMed Central

Villeneuve, Isabelle; Lamhamedi, Mohammed S.; Benomar, Lahcen; Rainville, André; DeBlois, Josianne; Beaulieu, Jean; Bousquet, Jean; Lambert, Marie-Claude; Margolis, Hank

2016-01-01

Because of changes in climatic conditions, tree seeds originating from breeding programs may no longer be suited to sites where they are currently sent. As a consequence, new seed zones may have to be delineated. Assisted migration consists of transferring seed sources that match the future climatic conditions to which they are currently adapted. It represents a strategy that could be used to mitigate the potential negative consequences of climate change on forest productivity. Decisions with regard to the choice of the most appropriate seed sources have to rely on appropriate knowledge of morpho-physiological responses of trees. To meet this goal, white spruce (Picea glauca [Moench] Voss) seedlings from eight seed orchards were evaluated during two years in a forest nursery, and at the end of the first growing season on three plantation sites located in different bioclimatic domains in Quebec. The morpho-physiological responses obtained at the end of the second growing season (2+0) in the nursery made it possible to cluster the orchards into three distinct groups. Modeling growth curves of these different groups showed that the height growth of seedlings from the second-generation and southern first-generation seed orchards was significantly higher than that of those from other orchards, by at least 6%. A multiple regression model with three climatic variables (average growing season temperature, average July temperature, length of the growing season) showed that the final height of seedlings (2+0) from the first-generation seed orchards was significantly related to the local climatic conditions at the orchard sites of origin where parental trees from surrounding natural populations were sampled to provide grafts for orchard establishment. Seedling height growth was significantly affected by both seed source origins and planting sites, but the relative ranking of the different seed sources was maintained regardless of reforestation site. This knowledge could be used, in conjunction with transfer models, to refine operational seed transfer rules and select the most suitable sites in an assisted migration strategy. PMID:27746795

Among-tree variability and feedback effects result in different growth responses to climate change at the upper treeline in the Swiss Alps.

PubMed

Jochner, Matthias; Bugmann, Harald; Nötzli, Magdalena; Bigler, Christof

2017-10-01

Upper treeline ecotones are important life form boundaries and particularly sensitive to a warming climate. Changes in growth conditions at these ecotones have wide-ranging implications for the provision of ecosystem services in densely populated mountain regions like the European Alps. We quantify climate effects on short- and long-term tree growth responses, focusing on among-tree variability and potential feedback effects. Although among-tree variability is thought to be substantial, it has not been considered systematically yet in studies on growth-climate relationships. We compiled tree-ring data including almost 600 trees of major treeline species ( Larix decidua , Picea abies , Pinus cembra , and Pinus mugo ) from three climate regions of the Swiss Alps. We further acquired tree size distribution data using unmanned aerial vehicles. To account for among-tree variability, we employed information-theoretic model selections based on linear mixed-effects models (LMMs) with flexible choice of monthly temperature effects on growth. We isolated long-term trends in ring-width indices (RWI) in interaction with elevation. The LMMs revealed substantial amounts of previously unquantified among-tree variability, indicating different strategies of single trees regarding when and to what extent to invest assimilates into growth. Furthermore, the LMMs indicated strongly positive temperature effects on growth during short summer periods across all species, and significant contributions of fall ( L. decidua ) and current year's spring ( L. decidua , P. abies ). In the longer term, all species showed consistently positive RWI trends at highest elevations, but different patterns with decreasing elevation. L. decidua exhibited even negative RWI trends compared to the highest treeline sites, whereas P. abies , P. cembra , and P. mugo showed steeper or flatter trends with decreasing elevation. This does not only reflect effects of ameliorated climate conditions on tree growth over time, but also reveals first signs of long-suspected negative and positive feedback of climate change on stand dynamics at treeline.

Current Analogues of Future Climate Indicate the Likely Response of a Sensitive Montane Tropical Avifauna to a Warming World

PubMed Central

Anderson, Alexander S.; Storlie, Collin J.; Shoo, Luke P.; Pearson, Richard G.; Williams, Stephen E.

2013-01-01

Among birds, tropical montane species are likely to be among the most vulnerable to climate change, yet little is known about how climate drives their distributions, nor how to predict their likely responses to temperature increases. Correlative models of species’ environmental niches have been widely used to predict changes in distribution, but direct tests of the relationship between key variables, such as temperature, and species’ actual distributions are few. In the absence of historical data with which to compare observations and detect shifts, space-for-time substitutions, where warmer locations are used as analogues of future conditions, offer an opportunity to test for species’ responses to climate. We collected density data for rainforest birds across elevational gradients in northern and southern subregions within the Australian Wet Tropics (AWT). Using environmental optima calculated from elevational density profiles, we detected a significant elevational difference between the two regions in ten of 26 species. More species showed a positive (19 spp.) than negative (7 spp.) displacement, with a median difference of ∼80.6 m across the species analysed that is concordant with that expected due to latitudinal temperature differences (∼75.5 m). Models of temperature gradients derived from broad-scale climate surfaces showed comparable performance to those based on in-situ measurements, suggesting the former is sufficient for modeling impacts. These findings not only confirm temperature as an important factor driving elevational distributions of these species, but also suggest species will shift upslope to track their preferred environmental conditions. Our approach uses optima calculated from elevational density profiles, offering a data-efficient alternative to distribution limits for gauging climate constraints, and is sensitive enough to detect distribution shifts in this avifauna in response to temperature changes of as little as 0.4 degrees. We foresee important applications in the urgent task of detecting and monitoring impacts of climate change on montane tropical biodiversity. PMID:23936005

Current analogues of future climate indicate the likely response of a sensitive montane tropical avifauna to a warming world.

PubMed

Anderson, Alexander S; Storlie, Collin J; Shoo, Luke P; Pearson, Richard G; Williams, Stephen E

2013-01-01

Among birds, tropical montane species are likely to be among the most vulnerable to climate change, yet little is known about how climate drives their distributions, nor how to predict their likely responses to temperature increases. Correlative models of species' environmental niches have been widely used to predict changes in distribution, but direct tests of the relationship between key variables, such as temperature, and species' actual distributions are few. In the absence of historical data with which to compare observations and detect shifts, space-for-time substitutions, where warmer locations are used as analogues of future conditions, offer an opportunity to test for species' responses to climate. We collected density data for rainforest birds across elevational gradients in northern and southern subregions within the Australian Wet Tropics (AWT). Using environmental optima calculated from elevational density profiles, we detected a significant elevational difference between the two regions in ten of 26 species. More species showed a positive (19 spp.) than negative (7 spp.) displacement, with a median difference of ∼80.6 m across the species analysed that is concordant with that expected due to latitudinal temperature differences (∼75.5 m). Models of temperature gradients derived from broad-scale climate surfaces showed comparable performance to those based on in-situ measurements, suggesting the former is sufficient for modeling impacts. These findings not only confirm temperature as an important factor driving elevational distributions of these species, but also suggest species will shift upslope to track their preferred environmental conditions. Our approach uses optima calculated from elevational density profiles, offering a data-efficient alternative to distribution limits for gauging climate constraints, and is sensitive enough to detect distribution shifts in this avifauna in response to temperature changes of as little as 0.4 degrees. We foresee important applications in the urgent task of detecting and monitoring impacts of climate change on montane tropical biodiversity.

'Weather Value at Risk': A uniform approach to describe and compare sectoral income risks from climate change.

PubMed

Prettenthaler, Franz; Köberl, Judith; Bird, David Neil

2016-02-01

We extend the concept of 'Weather Value at Risk' - initially introduced to measure the economic risks resulting from current weather fluctuations - to describe and compare sectoral income risks from climate change. This is illustrated using the examples of wheat cultivation and summer tourism in (parts of) Sardinia. Based on climate scenario data from four different regional climate models we study the change in the risk of weather-related income losses between some reference (1971-2000) and some future (2041-2070) period. Results from both examples suggest an increase in weather-related risks of income losses due to climate change, which is somewhat more pronounced for summer tourism. Nevertheless, income from wheat cultivation is at much higher risk of weather-related losses than income from summer tourism, both under reference and future climatic conditions. A weather-induced loss of at least 5% - compared to the income associated with average reference weather conditions - shows a 40% (80%) probability of occurrence in the case of wheat cultivation, but only a 0.4% (16%) probability of occurrence in the case of summer tourism, given reference (future) climatic conditions. Whereas in the agricultural example increases in the weather-related income risks mainly result from an overall decrease in average wheat yields, the heightened risk in the tourism example stems mostly from a change in the weather-induced variability of tourism incomes. With the extended 'Weather Value at Risk' concept being able to capture both, impacts from changes in the mean and the variability of the climate, it is a powerful tool for presenting and disseminating the results of climate change impact assessments. Due to its flexibility, the concept can be applied to any economic sector and therefore provides a valuable tool for cross-sectoral comparisons of climate change impacts, but also for the assessment of the costs and benefits of adaptation measures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Different growth sensitivity to climate of the conifer Juniperus thurifera on both sides of the Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeSoto, Lucía; Varino, Filipa; Andrade, José P.; Gouveia, Celia M.; Campelo, Filipe; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Nabais, Cristina

2014-12-01

Mediterranean plants cope with cold wet winters and dry hot summers, with a drought gradient from northwest to southeast. Limiting climatic conditions have become more pronounced in the last decades due to the warming trend and rainfall decrease. Juniperus thurifera L., a long-lived conifer tree endemic to the western Mediterranean region, has a disjunct distribution in Europe and Africa, making it a suitable species to study sensitivity to climate in both sides of the Mediterranean Basin. Tree-ring width chronologies were built for three J. thurifera stands at Spain (Europe) and three in Morocco (Africa) and correlated with monthly temperature and precipitation. The temporal stability of climate-growth relationships was assessed using moving correlations; the drought effect on growth was calculated using the monthly standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at different temporal scales. In the wettest stands, increasing spring temperature and summer precipitation enhanced growth, while in the driest stands, growth was enhanced by higher spring precipitation and lower summer temperature. The climate-growth correlations shifted during the twentieth century, especially since the 1970s. Particularly noticeable is the recent negative correlation with previous autumn and winter precipitation in the wettest stands of J. thurifera, probably related with an effect of cloud cover or flooding on carbon storage depletion for next year growth. The driest stands were affected by drought at long time scales, while the wettest stands respond to drought at short time scales. This reveals a different strategy to cope with drought conditions, with populations from drier sites able to cope with short periods of water deficit.

Average niche breadths of species in lake macrophyte communities respond to ecological gradients variably in four regions on two continents.

PubMed

Alahuhta, Janne; Virtala, Antti; Hjort, Jan; Ecke, Frauke; Johnson, Lucinda B; Sass, Laura; Heino, Jani

2017-05-01

Different species' niche breadths in relation to ecological gradients are infrequently examined within the same study and, moreover, species niche breadths have rarely been averaged to account for variation in entire ecological communities. We investigated how average environmental niche breadths (climate, water quality and climate-water quality niches) in aquatic macrophyte communities are related to ecological gradients (latitude, longitude, altitude, species richness and lake area) among four distinct regions (Finland, Sweden and US states of Minnesota and Wisconsin) on two continents. We found that correlations between the three different measures of average niche breadths and ecological gradients varied considerably among the study regions, with average climate and average water quality niche breadth models often showing opposite trends. However, consistent patterns were also found, such as widening of average climate niche breadths and narrowing of average water quality niche breadths of aquatic macrophytes along increasing latitudinal and altitudinal gradients. This result suggests that macrophyte species are generalists in relation to temperature variations at higher latitudes and altitudes, whereas species in southern, lowland lakes are more specialised. In contrast, aquatic macrophytes growing in more southern nutrient-rich lakes were generalists in relation to water quality, while specialist species are adapted to low-productivity conditions and are found in highland lakes. Our results emphasise that species niche breadths should not be studied using only coarse-scale data of species distributions and corresponding environmental conditions, but that investigations on different kinds of niche breadths (e.g., climate vs. local niches) also require finer resolution data at broad spatial extents.

The influence of climate variability on chemical composition of European wines: a regional scale study (Italy and Slovenia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbante, Carlo; Polo, Fabio; Cozzi, Giulio; Ogrinc, Nives; Turetta, Clara

2016-04-01

Climate change is having an increasing influence on vine phenology and grape composition, affecting vinifications, wine chemistry and the quality of productions. Wine grape cultivation provides a good test case for measuring indirect impacts mediated by changes in agriculture, because viticulture is sensitive to climate and is concentrated in Mediterranean climate regions that are global biodiversity hotspots. Moreover, on a regional level and on a shorter time scale, the seasonal weather conditions modify the quality of yields determining the final properties of wine. In the present research, we studied wines from Italy and Slovenia with the purpose of differentiating them by the different vintages (from 2009 to 2012), which are supposed to be influenced by temperature and rain during each year's growing season. Specific chemical techniques were used, in particular mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) and isotopic mass spectrometry (IRMS), both of which are usually employed to detect wine adulterations and to establish the geographical provenance of wines. In particular, we investigated the relationship between macro- and micro-elements, Rare Earth Elements and stable isotopes [δ13C, δ18O, (D/H)I, (D/H)II]. The datasets were examined via statistical techniques to show their relation to weather conditions as well as their mutual connection. Italian and Slovenian wines were distinguished, with the exception of few samples, by both TEs and REEs results. This separation, due to different elemental compositions, may be justified as being part of two distinct environmental and geographical belongings (terroir) but also to the processes of wine production, from the harvest to the bottling, which have certainly interfered and characterized the products. In the case of Italian wines the weather conditions were evidenced with an important separation of stable isotopes which they confirmed to be very sensitive Regarding Slovenian wines, the studied regions were characterized of three very different environments, and the elemental measurements resulted very useful. However, it was not possible to separate the different wine regions using elemental composition while the vintages were clearly evidenced. The results of this work were not able to confirm the mass spectrometry and the isotopic mass spectrometry to be useful to distinguish a wine for a specific region while they were able to separate vintages growth in different weather conditions. In conclusion of the work we can furthermore suggest from our data that weather conditions showed to have more influence in the chemical composition of wines than the environmental contribution. Moreover, the more is different a year in terms of weather conditions, the more the techniques of analysis can show the separation of the wines made in that year. However, has been not possible distinguish vintages produced in years of similar weather conditions.

Predicting woodrat (Neotoma) responses to anthropogenic warming from studies of the palaeomidden record

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Felisa A.; Betancourt, Julio L.

2006-01-01

Aim The influence of anthropogenic climate change on organisms is an area of great scientific concern. Increasingly there is recognition that abrupt climate transitions have occurred over the late Quaternary; studies of these shifts may yield insights into likely biotic responses to contemporary warming. Here, we review research undertaken over the past decade investigating the response of Neotoma (woodrats) body size and distribution to climate change over the late Quaternary (the last 40,000 years). By integrating information from woodrat palaeomiddens, historical museum specimens and field studies of modern populations, we identify potential evolutionary responses to climate change occurring over a variety of temporal and spatial scales. Specifically, we characterize climatic thresholds in the past that led to local species extirpation and/or range alterations rather than in situ adaptation, and apply them to anticipate potential biotic responses to anthropogenic climate change. Location Middens were collected at about 55 sites scattered across the western United States, ranging from about 34 to 46° N and about 104 to 116° W, respectively. Data for modern populations were drawn from studies conducted in Death Valley, California, Missoula, Montana and the Sevilleta LTER site in central New Mexico. Methods We analysed faecal pellets from midden series collected at numerous cave sites across the western United States. From these we estimated body mass using techniques validated in earlier studies. We compared body size fluctuations at different elevations in different regions and integrated these results with studies investigating temperature–body size tradeoffs in modern animals. We also quantify the rapidity of the size changes over the late Quaternary to estimate the evolutionary capacity of woodrats to deal with predicted rates of anthropogenic climate change over the next century. Results We find remarkable similarities across the geographical range to late Quaternary climate change. In the middle of the geographical range woodrats respond in accordance to Bergmann's rule: colder climatic conditions select for larger body size and warmer conditions select for smaller body size. Patterns are more complicated at range boundaries, and local environmental conditions influence the observed response. In general, woodrat body size fluctuates with approximately the same amplitude and frequency as climate; there is a significant and positive correlation between woodrat body size and generalized climate proxies (such as ice core records). Woodrats have achieved evolutionary rates of change equal to or greater than those needed to adapt in situ to anthropogenic climate change. Main conclusions In situ body size evolution is a likely outcome of climate change, and such shifts are part of a normal spectrum of adaptation. Woodrats appear to be subject to ongoing body size selection in response to fluctuating environmental conditions. Allometric considerations suggest that these shifts in body size lead to substantial changes in the physiology, life history and ecology of woodrats, and on their direct and indirect interactions with other organisms in the ecosystem. Our work highlights the importance of a finely resolved and long-term record in understanding biotic responses to climatic shifts.

Validation of the Regional Climate Model ALARO with different dynamical downscaling approaches and different horizontal resolutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berckmans, Julie; Hamdi, Rafiq; De Troch, Rozemien; Giot, Olivier

2015-04-01

At the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium (RMI), climate simulations are performed with the regional climate model (RCM) ALARO, a version of the ALADIN model with improved physical parameterizations. In order to obtain high-resolution information of the regional climate, lateral bounary conditions (LBC) are prescribed from the global climate model (GCM) ARPEGE. Dynamical downscaling is commonly done in a continuous long-term simulation, with the initialisation of the model at the start and driven by the regularly updated LBCs of the GCM. Recently, more interest exists in the dynamical downscaling approach of frequent reinitializations of the climate simulations. For these experiments, the model is initialised daily and driven for 24 hours by the GCM. However, the surface is either initialised daily together with the atmosphere or free to evolve continuously. The surface scheme implemented in ALARO is SURFEX, which can be either run in coupled mode or in stand-alone mode. The regional climate is simulated on different domains, on a 20km horizontal resolution over Western-Europe and a 4km horizontal resolution over Belgium. Besides, SURFEX allows to perform a stand-alone or offline simulation on 1km horizontal resolution over Belgium. This research is in the framework of the project MASC: "Modelling and Assessing Surface Change Impacts on Belgian and Western European Climate", a 4-year project funded by the Belgian Federal Government. The overall aim of the project is to study the feedbacks between climate changes and land surface changes in order to improve regional climate model projections at the decennial scale over Belgium and Western Europe and thus to provide better climate projections and climate change evaluation tools to policy makers, stakeholders and the scientific community.

Characterizing drought stress and trait influence on maize yield under current and future conditions.

PubMed

Harrison, Matthew T; Tardieu, François; Dong, Zhanshan; Messina, Carlos D; Hammer, Graeme L

2014-03-01

Global climate change is predicted to increase temperatures, alter geographical patterns of rainfall and increase the frequency of extreme climatic events. Such changes are likely to alter the timing and magnitude of drought stresses experienced by crops. This study used new developments in the classification of crop water stress to first characterize the typology and frequency of drought-stress patterns experienced by European maize crops and their associated distributions of grain yield, and second determine the influence of the breeding traits anthesis-silking synchrony, maturity and kernel number on yield in different drought-stress scenarios, under current and future climates. Under historical conditions, a low-stress scenario occurred most frequently (ca. 40%), and three other stress types exposing crops to late-season stresses each occurred in ca. 20% of cases. A key revelation shown was that the four patterns will also be the most dominant stress patterns under 2050 conditions. Future frequencies of low drought stress were reduced by ca. 15%, and those of severe water deficit during grain filling increased from 18% to 25%. Despite this, effects of elevated CO2 on crop growth moderated detrimental effects of climate change on yield. Increasing anthesis-silking synchrony had the greatest effect on yield in low drought-stress seasonal patterns, whereas earlier maturity had the greatest effect in crops exposed to severe early-terminal drought stress. Segregating drought-stress patterns into key groups allowed greater insight into the effects of trait perturbation on crop yield under different weather conditions. We demonstrate that for crops exposed to the same drought-stress pattern, trait perturbation under current climates will have a similar impact on yield as that expected in future, even though the frequencies of severe drought stress will increase in future. These results have important ramifications for breeding of maize and have implications for studies examining genetic and physiological crop responses to environmental stresses. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The effect of climate and soil conditions on tree species turnover in a Tropical Montane Cloud Forest in Costa Rica.

PubMed

Häger, Achim

2010-12-01

On a global level, Tropical Montane Cloud Forests constitute important centers of vascular plant diversity. Tree species turnover along environmental gradients plays an important role in larger scale diversity patterns in tropical mountains. This study aims to estimate the magnitude of beta diversity across the Tilardn mountain range in North-Western Costa Rica, and to elucidate the impact of climate and soil conditions on tree species turnover at a local scale. Seven climate stations measuring rainfall, horizontal precipitation (clouds and wind-driven rain) and temperatures were installed along a 2.5km transect ranging from 1200 m.a.s.l. on the Atlantic to 1200 m.a.s.l. on the Pacific slope. The ridge top climate station was located at 1500 m.a.s.l. Climate data were recorded from March through December 2003. Additionally, seven 0.05 ha plots were established. On all plots soil moisture was monitored for one year, furthermore soil type and soil chemistry were assessed. Woody plants with a diameter at breast height (dbh) > or = 5 cm were identified to species. Species' distributions were explored by feeding pairwise Serensen measures between plots into a Principal Component Analysis. Relationships between floristic similarity and environmental variables were analyzed using Mantel tests. Pronounced gradients in horizontal precipitation, temperatures and soil conditions were found across the transect. In total, 483 woody plants were identified, belonging to 132 species. Environmental gradients were paralleled by tree species turnover; the plots could be divided in three distinctive floristic units which reflected different topographic positions on the transect (lower slopes, mid slopes and ridge). Most notably there was a complete species turnover between the ridge and the lower Pacific slope. Floristic similarity was negatively correlated with differences in elevation, horizontal precipitation, temperatures and soil conditions between plots. It is suggested that beta-diversity in the study area is largely driven by species with narrow spatial ranges, due to the interactions between topography, climate and soil formation processes, especially around the wind-exposed and cloud covered ridge area. The findings emphasize the extraordinary conservation value of tropical montane cloud forests in environmentally heterogeneous areas at mid-elevations.

Spatial variability in the response of surface-water extent to climate extremes across the Prairie Pothole Region and adjacent Northern Prairie, United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanderhoof, M.; Lane, C.; McManus, M.; Alexander, L. C.; Christensen, J.

2017-12-01

Surface-water extent, duration and movement will depend not only on climatic inputs but also the relative importance of different hydrologic pathways (e.g., surface storage, infiltration, evapotranspiration, stream outflows). We mapped surface-water extent from historic drought years to historic wet years spanning 1985 - 2015 across eleven Landsat path/rows representing the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) and adjacent Northern Prairie of the United States. The PPR not only experienced a greater surface water extent under median conditions (2.6 times more) relative to the adjacent Northern Prairie, but showed a greater difference between drought and deluge conditions as well (range averaged 8.5 ha surface water km-2 relative to 2.5 ha surface water km-2 for the PPR and Northern Prairie, respectively). To explain the spatial variability in the amount of surface water expansion and contraction we used a two-stage modeling approach. First, surface-water extent was regressed on accumulated water availability (precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration). The slope of surface-water extent to climate inputs (per watershed) was our dependent variable in the second stage. That slope was regressed against independent variables representing hydrology-related landscape characteristics (e.g., infiltration capacity, surface storage capacity, stream density). Stream-connected surface water can leave via stream flow, influencing the rate at which surface-water may leave a location, therefore stream-connected and disconnected surface water were analyzed separately. Stream-connected surface water responded more strongly to wetter climatic conditions (i.e., accumulated) in landscapes with more lakes and less artificial drainage (e.g., ditching, tile drainage). Disconnected surface water responded more strongly to wetter climatic conditions when landscapes contained greater wetland density, fewer streams and a lower predicted rate of infiltration. From these findings, we can expect that the relationship between upstream and downstream waters will require consideration of hydrology-related landscape characteristics, and that climate-change related shifts in precipitation and evaporative demand will have an uneven effect on surface water expansion and contraction across the landscape.

Paleoenvironmental and Paleoclimate Changes Since 21,000 Cal Years BP in the Northeastern part of Brazil Inferred From Sediment Records in Lagoa do Caco (Maranhao State, Brazil)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sifeddine, A.; Meyers, P. A.; Gustavo, A.; Spadano Albuquerque, A. L.; Turcq, B.; Campbello Cordeiro, R.; Abrao, J. J.

2004-12-01

Two cores from Caco Lake, Maranhao State (North Brazil) record different histories of sediment accumulation on the margin and center of the lake that reflect changes in lake level. Seismic profiles, mineralogy and organic geochemical studies, backed by radiocarbon dating, reveal variable climatic and environmental conditions over the last 21 Cal Kyr BP. During the Last Glacial Maximum, regional climate was predominantly dry but was interrupted by short humid phases as reflected by a succession of very thin layers of sand and organic matter. The late glacial climate was relatively wet and included two rapid lake-level increases accompanied by forest expansion. The two wet phases were separated by a phase where the lake level remained stable and the forest changes were marked by the development of cool "Podocarpus" forest. These humid climate periods differed significantly from present warm tropical conditions.. The Holocene period is characterized by progressive increase of lake level, which reaches his maximum at around 7,000 Cal years BP. The period between 4,000 Cal years BP and the present shows high variability in lake level. Comparing with other South American and African records, we conclude that Late Glacial humid conditions were controlled by intensification of the ITCZ or shifts of its position, resulting in southeasterly trade wind variations and in interconnection between northern South America and the Atlantic tropical ocean-atmosphere system. The climatic variability during the Holocene is probably the result of sub-Milankovitch solar cycles and regional responses to these global forcings that are related to Atlantic and Pacific variability and their interconnections.

Reduction of uncertainty for estimating runoff with the NRCS CN model by the adaptation to local climatic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Durán-Barroso, Pablo; González, Javier; Valdés, Juan B.

2016-04-01

Rainfall-runoff quantification is one of the most important tasks in both engineering and watershed management as it allows to identify, forecast and explain watershed response. For that purpose, the Natural Resources Conservation Service Curve Number method (NRCS CN) is the conceptual lumped model more recognized in the field of rainfall-runoff estimation. Furthermore, there is still an ongoing discussion about the procedure to determine the portion of rainfall retained in the watershed before runoff is generated, called as initial abstractions. This concept is computed as a ratio (λ) of the soil potential maximum retention S of the watershed. Initially, this ratio was assumed to be 0.2, but later it has been proposed to be modified to 0.05. However, the actual procedures to convert NRCS CN model parameters obtained under a different hypothesis about λ do not incorporate any adaptation of climatic conditions of each watershed. By this reason, we propose a new simple method for computing model parameters which is adapted to local conditions taking into account regional patterns of climate conditions. After checking the goodness of this procedure against the actual ones in 34 different watersheds located in Ohio and Texas (United States), we concluded that this novel methodology represents the most accurate and efficient alternative to refit the initial abstraction ratio.

Fragmentation impairs the microclimate buffering effect of tropical forests.

PubMed

Ewers, Robert M; Banks-Leite, Cristina

2013-01-01

Tropical forest species are among the most sensitive to changing climatic conditions, and the forest they inhabit helps to buffer their microclimate from the variable climatic conditions outside the forest. However, habitat fragmentation and edge effects exposes vegetation to outside microclimatic conditions, thereby reducing the ability of the forest to buffer climatic variation. In this paper, we ask what proportion of forest in a fragmented ecosystem is impacted by altered microclimate conditions driven by edge effects, and extrapolate these results to the whole Atlantic Forest biome, one of the most disturbed biodiversity hotspots. To address these questions, we collected above and below ground temperature for a full year using temperature sensors placed in forest fragments of different sizes, and at different distances from the forest edge. In the Atlantic forests of Brazil, we found that the buffering effect of forests reduced maximum outside temperatures by one third or more at ground level within a forest, with the buffering effect being stronger below-ground than one metre above-ground. The temperature buffering effect of forests was, however, reduced near forest edges with the edge effect extending up to 20 m inside the forest. The heavily fragmented nature of the Brazilian Atlantic forest means that 12% of the remaining biome experiences altered microclimate conditions. Our results add further information about the extent of edge effects in the Atlantic Forest, and we suggest that maintaining a low perimeter-to-area ratio may be a judicious method for minimizing the amount of forest area that experiences altered microclimatic conditions in this ecosystem.

Fragmentation Impairs the Microclimate Buffering Effect of Tropical Forests

PubMed Central

Ewers, Robert M.; Banks-Leite, Cristina

2013-01-01

Background Tropical forest species are among the most sensitive to changing climatic conditions, and the forest they inhabit helps to buffer their microclimate from the variable climatic conditions outside the forest. However, habitat fragmentation and edge effects exposes vegetation to outside microclimatic conditions, thereby reducing the ability of the forest to buffer climatic variation. In this paper, we ask what proportion of forest in a fragmented ecosystem is impacted by altered microclimate conditions driven by edge effects, and extrapolate these results to the whole Atlantic Forest biome, one of the most disturbed biodiversity hotspots. To address these questions, we collected above and below ground temperature for a full year using temperature sensors placed in forest fragments of different sizes, and at different distances from the forest edge. Principal Findings In the Atlantic forests of Brazil, we found that the buffering effect of forests reduced maximum outside temperatures by one third or more at ground level within a forest, with the buffering effect being stronger below-ground than one metre above-ground. The temperature buffering effect of forests was, however, reduced near forest edges with the edge effect extending up to 20 m inside the forest. The heavily fragmented nature of the Brazilian Atlantic forest means that 12% of the remaining biome experiences altered microclimate conditions. Conclusions Our results add further information about the extent of edge effects in the Atlantic Forest, and we suggest that maintaining a low perimeter-to-area ratio may be a judicious method for minimizing the amount of forest area that experiences altered microclimatic conditions in this ecosystem. PMID:23483976

Concept, Design and Implementation of a climate game within the framework of a climate exhibition in the German Museum for Science and Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weber, M.; Hasselmann, K.

2002-12-01

In November 2002 a special exhibition on climate issues opened in the German Museum for Science and Techniques ('Deutsches Museum') in Munich. Within this exposition we present an interactive area where visitors should control future climate policy virtually by adopting the role of either the government, a CEO (Chief Executive Officer) of a global company or a typical private household of an industrialized country. All actors endeavor to maintain a sustainable climate in the future (global goal) and in addition pursue their own individual welfare goal. Task of the exhibition visitor is to combine the personal interests of the actor he is adopting with the global goal. The individual goal of government is to stay popular. This is derived from economic production Government also tries to avoid conflicts due to inter-regional inequalities. The CEO seeks to maximize total profits (business earnings) summed over all business sectors (shareholder values). The goal of households is to maximize wages and interest earnings. The evolution of the economic system is governed by the decisions of the actors. Government sets economic side conditions in terms of carbon taxes, subsidies for R&D or market infusion support for climate-friendly technologies, and transfers or subsidizes the transfer of development aid to less advanced regions. The CEO's decisions are: how much to invest in a number of alternative investment options and in which region. Households influences the economy by their purchasing and savings decisions. The model considers four regions, three real actors (mentioned above) and two different goods (climate-adverse and a climate-friendly). We introduce four different kinds of energy (coal, oil/gas, nuclear, renewable). Due to the existence of several goods and trade between regions we need to establish the concept of money and price. This includes a World Bank to handle money flows. At different points in time the actors are motivated to cooperate with other actors in order to reach the global goal. We use a touch-screen monitor with user friendly interface to present some animations and videos. An animated climate scientist uses a climate simulator to compute future climate scenarios under the condition of the actors decisions. This should show that all climate forecasts are not facts but model results which has to be interpreted by scientists. The goal of this project is not to indoctrinate the visitors but to give them a feeling for the problem and show them that a sustainable future climate can be combined with individual welfare goals.

Spring weather conditions influence breeding phenology and reproductive success in sympatric bat populations.

PubMed

Linton, Danielle M; Macdonald, David W

2018-04-10

Climate is known to influence breeding phenology and reproductive success in temperate-zone bats, but long-term population level studies and interspecific comparisons are rare. Investigating the extent to which intrinsic (i.e. age), and extrinsic (i.e. spring weather conditions), factors influence such key demographic parameters as the proportion of females becoming pregnant, or completing lactation, each breeding season, is vital to understanding of bat population ecology and life-history traits. Using data from 12 breeding seasons (2006-2017), encompassing the reproductive histories of 623 Myotis daubentonii and 436 Myotis nattereri adult females, we compare rates of recruitment to the breeding population and show that these species differ in their relative sensitivity to environmental conditions and climatic variation, affecting annual reproductive success at the population level. We demonstrate that (1) spring weather conditions influence breeding phenology, with warm, dry and calm conditions leading to earlier parturition dates and advanced juvenile development, whilst cold, wet and windy weather delays birth timing and juvenile growth; (2) reproductive rates in first-year females are influenced by spring weather conditions in that breeding season and in the preceding breeding season when each cohort was born. Pregnancy and lactation rates were both higher when favourable spring foraging conditions were more prevalent; (3) reproductive success increases with age in both species, but at different rates; (4) reproductive rates were consistently higher, and showed less interannual variation, in second-year and older M. daubentonii (mean 91.55% ± 0.05 SD) than M. nattereri (mean 72.74% ± 0.15 SD); (5) estimates of reproductive success at the population level were highly correlated with the size of the juvenile cohort recorded each breeding season. Improving understanding of the influence of environmental conditions, especially extreme climatic fluctuations, and the identification of critical periods (i.e. spring for reproductive female bats in temperate zones), which have disproportionate and lasting impacts on breeding phenology and reproductive success at a population level, is critical for improving predictions of the likely impact of climate change on bat populations. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2018 British Ecological Society.

Performance of the Hydrological Portion of a Simple Water Quality Model in Different Climatic Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, K.; Pierson, D.; Pettersson, K.; Naden, P.; Allott, N.; Jennings, E.; Tamm, T.; Järvet, A.; Nickus, U.; Thies, H.; Arvola, L.; Järvinen, M.; Schneiderman, E.; Zion, M.; Lounsbury, D.

2004-05-01

We are applying an existing watershed model in the EU CLIME (Climate and Lake Impacts in Europe) project to evaluate the effects of weather on seasonal and annual delivery of N, P, and DOC to lakes. Model calibration is based on long-term records of weather and water quality data collected from sites in different climatic regions spread across Europe and in New York State. The overall aim of the CLIME project is to develop methods and models to support lake and catchment management under current climate conditions and make predictions under future climate scenarios. Scientists from 10 partner countries are collaborating on developing a consistent approach to defining model parameters for the Generalized Watershed Loading Functions (GWLF) model, one of a larger suite of models used in the project. An example of the approach for the hydrological portion of the GWLF model will be presented, with consideration of the balance between model simplicity, ease of use, data requirements, and realistic predictions.

Downscaling a Global Climate Model to Simulate Climate Change Impacts on U.S. Regional and Urban Air Quality

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trail, M.; Tsimpidi, A. P.; Liu, P.; Tsigaridis, K.; Hu, Y.; Nenes, A.; Russell, A. G.

2013-01-01

Climate change can exacerbate future regional air pollution events by making conditions more favorable to form high levels of ozone. In this study, we use spectral nudging with WRF to downscale NASA earth system GISS modelE2 results during the years 2006 to 2010 and 2048 to 2052 over the continental United States in order to compare the resulting meteorological fields from the air quality perspective during the four seasons of five-year historic and future climatological periods. GISS results are used as initial and boundary conditions by the WRF RCM to produce hourly meteorological fields. The downscaling technique and choice of physics parameterizations used are evaluated by comparing them with in situ observations. This study investigates changes of similar regional climate conditions down to a 12km by 12km resolution, as well as the effect of evolving climate conditions on the air quality at major U.S. cities. The high resolution simulations produce somewhat different results than the coarse resolution simulations in some regions. Also, through the analysis of the meteorological variables that most strongly influence air quality, we find consistent changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels in four regions of the U.S. during fall (Western U.S., Texas, Northeastern, and Southeastern U.S), one region during summer (Texas), and one region where changes potentially would lead to better air quality during spring (Northeast). We also find that daily peak temperatures tend to increase in most major cities in the U.S. which would increase the risk of health problems associated with heat stress. Future work will address a more comprehensive assessment of emissions and chemistry involved in the formation and removal of air pollutants.

Using climate derivatives for assessment of meteorological parameter relationships in RCM and observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timuhins, Andrejs; Bethers, Uldis; Bethers, Peteris; Klints, Ilze; Sennikovs, Juris; Frishfelds, Vilnis

2017-04-01

In a changing climate it is essential to estimate its impacts on different economic fields. In our study we tried to create a framework for climate change assessment and climate change impact estimation for the territory of Latvia and to create results which are also understandable for non-scientists (stakeholder, media and public). This approach allowed us to more carefully assess the presentation and interpretation of results and their validation, for public viewing. For the presentation of our work a website was created (www.modlab.lv/klimats) containing two types of documents in a unified framework, meteorological parameter analysis of different easily interpretable derivative values. Both of these include analysis of the current situation as well as illustrate the projection for future time periods. Derivate values are calculated using two data sources: the bias corrected regional climate data and meteorological observation data. Derivative documents contain description of derived value, some interesting facts and conclusions. Additionally, all results may be viewed in temporal and spatial graphs and maps, for different time periods as well as different seasons. Bias correction (Sennikovs and Bethers, 2009) for the control period 1961-1990 is applied to RCM data series. Meteorological observation data of the Latvian Environment, Geology, and Meteorology Agency and ENSEMBLES project daily data of 13 RCM runs for the period 1960-2100 are used. All the documents are prepared in python notebooks, which allow for flexible changes. At the moment following derivative values have been published: forest fire risk index, wind energy, phenology (Degree days), road condition (friction, ice conditions), daily minimal meteorological visibility, headache occurrence rate, firs snow date and meteorological parameter analysis: temperature, precipitation, wind speed, relative humidity, and cloudiness. While creating these products RCM ability to represent the actual climate was analysed from different perspectives, for example, we found that forest fire index has qualitative differences depending on the data used in calculation either using observed data or RCM data, which could be caused by the differences in precipitation and temperature cross correlation (Bethers, P., Sennikovs, J. and Timuhins, A. 2011) The present work has been funded by the Latvian National Research Program on the "The value and dynamic of Latvia's ecosystems under changing climate" (EVIDEnT). References Sennikovs, J. and Bethers, U. (2009), Statistical downscaling method of regional climate model results for hydrological modelling. 18th World IMACS / MODSIM Congress, Cairns, Australia Bethers, P., Sennikovs, J. and Timuhins, A. (2011), Skill assessment of regional climate models:T/P correlations impacts on hydrological modeling. Geophysical Research Abstracts Vol. 13, EGU2011-7068, 2011 EGU General Assembly 2011

Implementation of Malaria Dynamic Models in Municipality Level Early Warning Systems in Colombia. Part I: Description of Study Sites

PubMed Central

Ruiz, Daniel; Cerón, Viviana; Molina, Adriana M.; Quiñónes, Martha L.; Jiménez, Mónica M.; Ahumada, Martha; Gutiérrez, Patricia; Osorio, Salua; Mantilla, Gilma; Connor, Stephen J.; Thomson, Madeleine C.

2014-01-01

As part of the Integrated National Adaptation Pilot project and the Integrated Surveillance and Control System, the Colombian National Institute of Health is working on the design and implementation of a Malaria Early Warning System framework, supported by seasonal climate forecasting capabilities, weather and environmental monitoring, and malaria statistical and dynamic models. In this report, we provide an overview of the local ecoepidemiologic settings where four malaria process-based mathematical models are currently being implemented at a municipal level. The description includes general characteristics, malaria situation (predominant type of infection, malaria-positive cases data, malaria incidence, and seasonality), entomologic conditions (primary and secondary vectors, mosquito densities, and feeding frequencies), climatic conditions (climatology and long-term trends), key drivers of epidemic outbreaks, and non-climatic factors (populations at risk, control campaigns, and socioeconomic conditions). Selected pilot sites exhibit different ecoepidemiologic settings that must be taken into account in the development of the integrated surveillance and control system. PMID:24891460

Millennial Climatic Fluctuations Are Key to the Structure of Last Glacial Ecosystems

PubMed Central

Huntley, Brian; Allen, Judy R. M.; Collingham, Yvonne C.; Hickler, Thomas; Lister, Adrian M.; Singarayer, Joy; Stuart, Anthony J.; Sykes, Martin T.; Valdes, Paul J.

2013-01-01

Whereas fossil evidence indicates extensive treeless vegetation and diverse grazing megafauna in Europe and northern Asia during the last glacial, experiments combining vegetation models and climate models have to-date simulated widespread persistence of trees. Resolving this conflict is key to understanding both last glacial ecosystems and extinction of most of the mega-herbivores. Using a dynamic vegetation model (DVM) we explored the implications of the differing climatic conditions generated by a general circulation model (GCM) in “normal” and “hosing” experiments. Whilst the former approximate interstadial conditions, the latter, designed to mimic Heinrich Events, approximate stadial conditions. The “hosing” experiments gave simulated European vegetation much closer in composition to that inferred from fossil evidence than did the “normal” experiments. Given the short duration of interstadials, and the rate at which forest cover expanded during the late-glacial and early Holocene, our results demonstrate the importance of millennial variability in determining the character of last glacial ecosystems. PMID:23613985

Millennial climatic fluctuations are key to the structure of last glacial ecosystems.

PubMed

Huntley, Brian; Allen, Judy R M; Collingham, Yvonne C; Hickler, Thomas; Lister, Adrian M; Singarayer, Joy; Stuart, Anthony J; Sykes, Martin T; Valdes, Paul J

2013-01-01

Whereas fossil evidence indicates extensive treeless vegetation and diverse grazing megafauna in Europe and northern Asia during the last glacial, experiments combining vegetation models and climate models have to-date simulated widespread persistence of trees. Resolving this conflict is key to understanding both last glacial ecosystems and extinction of most of the mega-herbivores. Using a dynamic vegetation model (DVM) we explored the implications of the differing climatic conditions generated by a general circulation model (GCM) in "normal" and "hosing" experiments. Whilst the former approximate interstadial conditions, the latter, designed to mimic Heinrich Events, approximate stadial conditions. The "hosing" experiments gave simulated European vegetation much closer in composition to that inferred from fossil evidence than did the "normal" experiments. Given the short duration of interstadials, and the rate at which forest cover expanded during the late-glacial and early Holocene, our results demonstrate the importance of millennial variability in determining the character of last glacial ecosystems.

How can crop intra-specific biodiversity mitigate the vulnerability of agricultural systems to climate change? A case study on durum wheat in Southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monaco, Eugenia; Alfieri, Silvia Maria; Basile, Angelo; Menenti, Massimo; Bonfante, Antonello; De Lorenzi, Fracesca

2014-05-01

Climate evolution may lead to changes in the amount and distribution of precipitations and to reduced water availability, with constraints on the cultivation of some crops. Recently, foreseen crop responses to climate change raise a crucial question for the agricultural stakeholders: are the current production systems resilient to this change? An active debate is in progress about the definition of adaptation of agricultural systems, particularly about the integrated assessment of climate stressors, vulnerability and resilece towards the evaluation of climate impact on agricultural systems. Climate change represents a risk for rain-fed agricultural systems, where irrigations cannot compensate reductions in precipitations. The intra-specific biodiversity of crops can be a resource towards adaptation. The knowledge of the responses to environmental conditions (temperature and water availability) of different cultivars can allow to identify options for adaptation to future climate. Simulation models of water flow in the soil-plant-atmosphere system, driven by different climate scenarios, can describe present and foreseen soil water regime. The present work deals with a case-study on the adaptive capacity of durum wheat to climate change. The selected study area is a hilly region in Southern Italy (Fortore Beneventano, Campania Region). Two climate cases were studied: "reference" (1961-1990) and "future" (2021-2050). A mechanistic model of water flow in the soil-plant-atmosphere system (SWAP) was run to determine the water regime in some soil units, representative of the soil variability in the study area. From model output, the Relative Evapotranspiration Deficit (RETD) was determined as an indicator of hydrological conditions during the crop growing period for each year and climate case; and periods with higher frequencies of soil water deficits were identified. The timing of main crop development stages was calculated. The occurrence of water deficit at different development stages was thus assessed. Moreover, the yield response functions to water availability of several durum wheat cultivars were determined; cultivars' hydrologic requirements were thus defined and compared with the simulated values of RETD. The latter was evaluated against requirements for each soil unit, cultivar and year in both climate cases to assess adaptability. In the future climate scenario a significant reduction (about 80 mm) of rainfall is foreseen. The analyses of inter- and intra-annual courses of the indicator (RETD) showed higher RETD in one soil unit, which resulted less suitable for durum wheat cultivation. According to the soils' water regime and to the cultivar-specific yield responses, the adaptability of durum wheat cultivars was assessed. The difference between the two climate cases was significant; the adaptability of the cultivars was strongly influenced by the different rainfall regime and by the soil physical properties, which strongly affected the soil water balance. The case study showed how in the future climate case, for rainfed durum wheat, the intra-specific variability will allow to maintain the current crop production system. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008)

Climate change, humans, and the extinction of the woolly mammoth.

PubMed

Nogués-Bravo, David; Rodríguez, Jesús; Hortal, Joaquín; Batra, Persaram; Araújo, Miguel B

2008-04-01

Woolly mammoths inhabited Eurasia and North America from late Middle Pleistocene (300 ky BP [300,000 years before present]), surviving through different climatic cycles until they vanished in the Holocene (3.6 ky BP). The debate about why the Late Quaternary extinctions occurred has centred upon environmental and human-induced effects, or a combination of both. However, testing these two hypotheses-climatic and anthropogenic-has been hampered by the difficulty of generating quantitative estimates of the relationship between the contraction of the mammoth's geographical range and each of the two hypotheses. We combined climate envelope models and a population model with explicit treatment of woolly mammoth-human interactions to measure the extent to which a combination of climate changes and increased human pressures might have led to the extinction of the species in Eurasia. Climate conditions for woolly mammoths were measured across different time periods: 126 ky BP, 42 ky BP, 30 ky BP, 21 ky BP, and 6 ky BP. We show that suitable climate conditions for the mammoth reduced drastically between the Late Pleistocene and the Holocene, and 90% of its geographical range disappeared between 42 ky BP and 6 ky BP, with the remaining suitable areas in the mid-Holocene being mainly restricted to Arctic Siberia, which is where the latest records of woolly mammoths in continental Asia have been found. Results of the population models also show that the collapse of the climatic niche of the mammoth caused a significant drop in their population size, making woolly mammoths more vulnerable to the increasing hunting pressure from human populations. The coincidence of the disappearance of climatically suitable areas for woolly mammoths and the increase in anthropogenic impacts in the Holocene, the coup de grâce, likely set the place and time for the extinction of the woolly mammoth.

Hydrofutures and Hydromorphology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lall, U.

2006-12-01

Hydromorphology refers to the science of hydrologic evolution. It represents a synthesis of planetary and social sciences that collectively determine the spatial and temporal evolution of planetary water. At present human actions directly or indirectly play a major role in determining hydrofutures. Man's role in changing water trajectories is now clear at both local and planetary scales. Changing climate leads to changing ecology and changing water patterns. Changing water conditions may in turn regulate (limit anthropogenic climate change) or adversely impact (e.g., runaway greenhouse) climate, as well as human habitation and water use patterns. This talk will address the problem of the prediction of future hydrologic conditions in the different media and reservoirs of the planet, from the integrated perspective indicated above. Key examples of the mechanisms of hydrologic change, that relate to climate and ecological dyanmics, and to human activity are identified as well. A theoretical framework for researching this multi-attribute dynamical system from a water centric perspective is advocated as a critical need for planetary science and human welfare.

1,500 year quantitative reconstruction of winter precipitation in the Pacific Northwest

PubMed Central

Steinman, Byron A.; Abbott, Mark B.; Mann, Michael E.; Stansell, Nathan D.; Finney, Bruce P.

2012-01-01

Multiple paleoclimate proxies are required for robust assessment of past hydroclimatic conditions. Currently, estimates of drought variability over the past several thousand years are based largely on tree-ring records. We produced a 1,500-y record of winter precipitation in the Pacific Northwest using a physical model-based analysis of lake sediment oxygen isotope data. Our results indicate that during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) (900–1300 AD) the Pacific Northwest experienced exceptional wetness in winter and that during the Little Ice Age (LIA) (1450–1850 AD) conditions were drier, contrasting with hydroclimatic anomalies in the desert Southwest and consistent with climate dynamics related to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). These findings are somewhat discordant with drought records from tree rings, suggesting that differences in seasonal sensitivity between the two proxies allow a more compete understanding of the climate system and likely explain disparities in inferred climate trends over centennial timescales. PMID:22753510

Multisensor System for Isotemporal Measurements to Assess Indoor Climatic Conditions in Poultry Farms

PubMed Central

Bustamante, Eliseo; Guijarro, Enrique; García-Diego, Fernando-Juan; Balasch, Sebastián; Hospitaler, Antonio; Torres, Antonio G.

2012-01-01

The rearing of poultry for meat production (broilers) is an agricultural food industry with high relevance to the economy and development of some countries. Periodic episodes of extreme climatic conditions during the summer season can cause high mortality among birds, resulting in economic losses. In this context, ventilation systems within poultry houses play a critical role to ensure appropriate indoor climatic conditions. The objective of this study was to develop a multisensor system to evaluate the design of the ventilation system in broiler houses. A measurement system equipped with three types of sensors: air velocity, temperature and differential pressure was designed and built. The system consisted in a laptop, a data acquisition card, a multiplexor module and a set of 24 air temperature, 24 air velocity and two differential pressure sensors. The system was able to acquire up to a maximum of 128 signals simultaneously at 5 second intervals. The multisensor system was calibrated under laboratory conditions and it was then tested in field tests. Field tests were conducted in a commercial broiler farm under four different pressure and ventilation scenarios in two sections within the building. The calibration curves obtained under laboratory conditions showed similar regression coefficients among temperature, air velocity and pressure sensors and a high goodness fit (R2 = 0.99) with the reference. Under field test conditions, the multisensor system showed a high number of input signals from different locations with minimum internal delay in acquiring signals. The variation among air velocity sensors was not significant. The developed multisensor system was able to integrate calibrated sensors of temperature, air velocity and differential pressure and operated succesfully under different conditions in a mechanically-ventilated broiler farm. This system can be used to obtain quasi-instantaneous fields of the air velocity and temperature, as well as differential pressure maps to assess the design and functioning of ventilation system and as a verification and validation (V&V) system of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations in poultry farms. PMID:22778611

Multiple selective events at the PRDM16 functional pathway shaped adaptation of western European populations to different climate conditions.

PubMed

Quagliarello, Andrea; De Fanti, Sara; Giuliani, Cristina; Abondio, Paolo; Serventi, Patrizia; Sarno, Stefania; Sazzini, Marco; Luiselli, Donata

2017-12-30

Several studies highlighted the role of climate in shaping many human evolutionary processes. This occurred even in relatively recent times, having affected various human phenotypic traits, among which metabolic processes that orchestrate absorption and accumulation of substances to maintain energy homeostasis, that is critical for the survival of individuals in high energy-expenditure environments. To date, most researches have focalized on detection of climatic influence on SNPs' frequency in populations exposed to extreme environmental conditions or by comparing variation patterns between populations from different continents. In this study, we instead explored the genetic background of distinct western European human groups at loci involved in nutritional and thermoregulation processes, to test whether patterns of differential local adaptation to environmental conditions could be appreciated also at a lower geographical scale. Taking advantage from the 1000 Genomes Project data, genetic information for 21 genes involved in nutritional and thermoregulation processes was analysed for three western European populations. The applied Anthropological Genetics methods pointed to appreciable differentiation between the examined groups especially for the PRDM16 gene. Moreover, several neutrality tests suggested that balancing selection has acted on different regions of the gene in people from Great Britain, as well as that more recent positive selection could have also targeted some PRDM16 SNPs in Finn and Italian populations. These series of adaptive footprints are plausibly related to climate variability in both ancient and relatively recent times. Since this locus is involved in thermoregulation mechanisms and adipogenesis, local adaptations mediated by a pathway related to the brown adipose tissue activity could have evolved in response to changing cold temperature exposures of such populations.

Climatic Signals from Intra-annual Density Fluctuation Frequency in Mediterranean Pines at a Regional Scale

PubMed Central

Zalloni, Enrica; de Luis, Martin; Campelo, Filipe; Novak, Klemen; De Micco, Veronica; Di Filippo, Alfredo; Vieira, Joana; Nabais, Cristina; Rozas, Vicente; Battipaglia, Giovanna

2016-01-01

Tree rings provide information about the climatic conditions during the growing season by recording them in different anatomical features, such as intra-annual density fluctuations (IADFs). IADFs are intra-annual changes of wood density appearing as latewood-like cells within earlywood, or earlywood-like cells within latewood. The occurrence of IADFs is dependent on the age and size of the tree, and it is triggered by climatic drivers. The variations of IADF frequency of different species and their dependence on climate across a wide geographical range have still to be explored. The objective of this study is to investigate the effect of age, tree-ring width and climate on IADF formation and frequency at a regional scale across the Mediterranean Basin in Pinus halepensis Mill., Pinus pinaster Ait., and Pinus pinea L. The analyzed tree-ring network was composed of P. pinea trees growing at 10 sites (2 in Italy, 4 in Spain, and 4 in Portugal), P. pinaster from 19 sites (2 in Italy, 13 in Spain, and 4 in Portugal), and P. halepensis from 38 sites in Spain. The correlations between IADF frequency and monthly minimum, mean and maximum temperatures, as well as between IADF frequency and total precipitation, were analyzed. A significant negative relationship between IADF frequency and tree-ring age was found for the three Mediterranean pines. Moreover, IADFs were more frequent in wider rings than in narrower ones, although the widest rings showed a reduced IADF frequency. Wet conditions during late summer/early autumn triggered the formation of IADFs in the three species. Our results suggest the existence of a common climatic driver for the formation of IADFs in Mediterranean pines, highlighting the potential use of IADF frequency as a proxy for climate reconstructions with geographical resolution. PMID:27200052

The multivariate association between genomewide DNA methylation and climate across the range of Arabidopsis thaliana.

PubMed

Keller, Thomas E; Lasky, Jesse R; Yi, Soojin V

2016-04-01

Epigenetic changes can occur due to extracellular environmental conditions. Consequently, epigenetic mechanisms can play an intermediate role to translate environmental signals to intracellular changes. Such a role might be particularly important in plants, which often show strong local adaptation and have the potential for heritable epigenetic states. However, little is currently known about the role of epigenetic variation in the ecological mechanisms of adaptation. Here, we used multivariate redundancy analyses to examine genomewide associations between DNA methylation polymorphisms and climate variation in two independent panels of Arabidopsis accessions, including 122 Eurasian accessions as well as in a regional panel of 148 accessions in Sweden. At the single-nucleotide methylation level, climate and space (geographic spatial structure) explain small yet significant amount of variation in both panels. On the other hand, when viewed in a context of genomic clusters of methylated and unmethylated cytosines, climate and space variables explain much greater amounts of variation in DNA methylation than those explained by variation at the single-nucleotide level. We found that the single-nucleotide methylation polymorphisms with the strongest associations with climate were enriched in transposable elements and in potentially RNA-directed methylation contexts. When viewed in the context of genomic clusters, variation of DNA methylation at different sequence contexts exhibit distinctive segregation along different axes of variation in the redundancy analyses. Genomewide methylation showed much stronger associations with climate within the regional panel (Sweden) compared to the global (Eurasia). Together, these findings indicate that genetic and epigenetic variation across the genome may play a role in response to climate conditions and local adaptation. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Intercomparison of hydrological model structures and calibration approaches in climate scenario impact projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vansteenkiste, Thomas; Tavakoli, Mohsen; Ntegeka, Victor; De Smedt, Florimond; Batelaan, Okke; Pereira, Fernando; Willems, Patrick

2014-11-01

The objective of this paper is to investigate the effects of hydrological model structure and calibration on climate change impact results in hydrology. The uncertainty in the hydrological impact results is assessed by the relative change in runoff volumes and peak and low flow extremes from historical and future climate conditions. The effect of the hydrological model structure is examined through the use of five hydrological models with different spatial resolutions and process descriptions. These were applied to a medium sized catchment in Belgium. The models vary from the lumped conceptual NAM, PDM and VHM models over the intermediate detailed and distributed WetSpa model to the fully distributed MIKE SHE model. The latter model accounts for the 3D groundwater processes and interacts bi-directionally with a full hydrodynamic MIKE 11 river model. After careful and manual calibration of these models, accounting for the accuracy of the peak and low flow extremes and runoff subflows, and the changes in these extremes for changing rainfall conditions, the five models respond in a similar way to the climate scenarios over Belgium. Future projections on peak flows are highly uncertain with expected increases as well as decreases depending on the climate scenario. The projections on future low flows are more uniform; low flows decrease (up to 60%) for all models and for all climate scenarios. However, the uncertainties in the impact projections are high, mainly in the dry season. With respect to the model structural uncertainty, the PDM model simulates significantly higher runoff peak flows under future wet scenarios, which is explained by its specific model structure. For the low flow extremes, the MIKE SHE model projects significantly lower low flows in dry scenario conditions in comparison to the other models, probably due to its large difference in process descriptions for the groundwater component, the groundwater-river interactions. The effect of the model calibration was tested by comparing the manual calibration approach with automatic calibrations of the VHM model based on different objective functions. The calibration approach did not significantly alter the model results for peak flow, but the low flow projections were again highly influenced. Model choice as well as calibration strategy hence have a critical impact on low flows, more than on peak flows. These results highlight the high uncertainty in low flow modelling, especially in a climate change context.

How climate and weather affect the erosion risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, T.; Plant, N. G.

2015-12-01

Oceanographic variables such as mean sea level, tides, storm surges, and waves are drivers of erosion, and they act on different time scales ranging from hours (associated with weather) to seasonal and decadal variations and trends (associated with climate). Here we explore how the related sea-state conditions affect the erosion risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico for past and future climate scenarios. From the climate perspective we find that long-term trends in the relevant variables have caused an increase of ~30% in the erosion risk since the 1980s; at least half of this increase was due to changes in the wave climate. In the next decades, sea level rise will likely become the dominating driver and may, in combination with ongoing changes in the wave climate (and depending on the emission scenario), escalate the erosion risk by up to 300% over the next 30 years. We also find significant changes in the seasonal cycles of sea level and significant wave height, which have in combination caused a considerable increase of the erosion risk in summer and decrease in winter (superimposed onto the long-term trends). The influence of weather is assessed with a copula-based multivariate sea storm model in a Monte-Carlo framework; i.e. we simulate hundreds of thousands of artificial but physically consistent sea-state conditions to quantify how different our understanding of the present day erosion risk would be if we had seen more or less extreme combinations of the different sea-state parameters over the last three decades. We find, for example, that total water levels (tide + surge + wave run-up) associated with 100-year return periods may be underestimated by up to 30% and that the average number of impact hours - when total water levels exceeded the height of the dune toe (collision) or dune crest (overwash) - could have been up to 50% higher than what we inferred based on the actually observed oceanographic conditions. Assessing erosion risk in such a probabilistic way while accounting for non-stationarity due to climate variability and change can help decision makers and planners to implement improved monitoring and adaptation strategies for long-term sustainability of the coastline and barrier islands.

Erosion risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico - the effects of climate and weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, Thomas; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Long, Joseph W.

2016-04-01

Oceanographic variables such as mean sea level, tides, storm surges, and waves are drivers of erosion, and they act on different time scales ranging from hours (associated with weather) to seasonal and decadal variations and trends (associated with climate). Here we explore how the related sea-state conditions affect the erosion risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico for past and future climate scenarios. From the climate perspective we find that long-term trends in the relevant variables have caused an increase of ~30% in the erosion risk since the 1980s; at least half of this increase was due to changes in the wave climate. In the next decades, sea level rise will likely become the dominating driver and may, in combination with ongoing changes in the wave climate (and depending on the emission scenario), escalate the erosion risk by up to 300% over the next 30 years. We also find significant changes in the seasonal cycles of sea level and significant wave height, which have in combination caused a considerable increase of the erosion risk in summer and decrease in winter (superimposed onto the long-term trends). The influence of weather is assessed with a copula-based multivariate sea storm model in a Monte-Carlo framework; i.e. we simulate hundreds of thousands of artificial but physically consistent sea-state conditions to quantify how different our understanding of the present day erosion risk would be if we had seen more or less extreme combinations of the different sea-state parameters over the last three decades. We find, for example, that total water levels (tide + surge + wave run-up) associated with 100-year return periods may be underestimated by up to 30% and that the average number of impact hours - when total water levels exceeded the height of the dune toe (collision) or dune crest (overwash) - could have been up to 50% higher than what we inferred based on the actually observed oceanographic conditions. Assessing erosion risk in such a probabilistic way while accounting for non-stationarity due to climate variability and change can help decision makers and planners to implement improved monitoring and adaptation strategies for long-term sustainability of the coastline and barrier islands.

Species biogeography predicts drought responses in a seasonally dry tropical forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwartz, N.; Powers, J. S.; Vargas, G.; Xu, X.; Smith, C. M.; Brodribb, T.; Werden, L. K.; Becknell, J.; Medvigy, D.

2017-12-01

The timing, distribution, and amount of rainfall in the seasonal tropics have shifted in recent years, with consequences for seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTF). SDTF are sensitive to changing rainfall regimes and drought conditions, but sensitivity to drought varies substantially across species. One potential explanation of species differences is that species that experience dry conditions more frequently throughout their range will be better able to cope with drought than species from wetter climates, because species from drier climates will be better adapted to drought. An El-Niño induced drought in 2015 presented an opportunity to assess species-level differences in mortality in SDTF, and to ask whether the ranges of rainfall conditions species experience and the average rainfall regimes in species' ranges predict differences in mortality rates in Costa Rican SDTF. We used field plot data from northwest Costa Rica to determine species' level mortality rates. Mortality rates ranged substantially across species, with some species having no dead individuals to as high as 50% mortality. To quantify rainfall conditions across species' ranges, we used species occurrence data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, and rainfall data from the Chelsa climate dataset. We found that while the average and range of mean annual rainfall across species ranges did not predict drought-induced mortality in the field plots, across-range averages of the seasonality index, a measure of rainfall seasonality, was strongly correlated with species-level drought mortality (r = -0.62, p < 0.05), with species from more strongly seasonal climates experiencing less severe drought mortality. Furthermore, we found that the seasonality index was a stronger predictor of mortality than any individual functional trait we considered. This result shows that species' biogeography may be an important factor for how species will respond to future drought, and may be a more integrative predictor than individual functional traits.

Implementation ambiguity: The fifth element long lost in uncertainty budgets for land biogeochemical modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, J.; Riley, W. J.

2015-12-01

Previous studies have identified four major sources of predictive uncertainty in modeling land biogeochemical (BGC) processes: (1) imperfect initial conditions (e.g., assumption of preindustrial equilibrium); (2) imperfect boundary conditions (e.g., climate forcing data); (3) parameterization (type I equifinality); and (4) model structure (type II equifinality). As if that were not enough to cause substantial sleep loss in modelers, we propose here a fifth element of uncertainty that results from implementation ambiguity that occurs when the model's mathematical description is translated into computational code. We demonstrate the implementation ambiguity using the example of nitrogen down regulation, a necessary process in modeling carbon-climate feedbacks. We show that, depending on common land BGC model interpretations of the governing equations for mineral nitrogen, there are three different implementations of nitrogen down regulation. We coded these three implementations in the ACME land model (ALM), and explored how they lead to different preindustrial and contemporary land biogeochemical states and fluxes. We also show how this implementation ambiguity can lead to different carbon-climate feedback estimates across the RCP scenarios. We conclude by suggesting how to avoid such implementation ambiguity in ESM BGC models.

Comparison of Grid Nudging and Spectral Nudging Techniques for Dynamical Climate Downscaling within the WRF Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, X.; Chen, L.; Ma, Z.

2010-12-01

Climate downscaling has been an active research and application area in the past several decades focusing on regional climate studies. Dynamical downscaling, in addition to statistical methods, has been widely used in downscaling as the advanced modern numerical weather and regional climate models emerge. The utilization of numerical models enables that a full set of climate variables are generated in the process of downscaling, which are dynamically consistent due to the constraints of physical laws. While we are generating high resolution regional climate, the large scale climate patterns should be retained. To serve this purpose, nudging techniques, including grid analysis nudging and spectral nudging, have been used in different models. There are studies demonstrating the benefit and advantages of each nudging technique; however, the results are sensitive to many factors such as nudging coefficients and the amount of information to nudge to, and thus the conclusions are controversy. While in a companion work of developing approaches for quantitative assessment of the downscaled climate, in this study, the two nudging techniques are under extensive experiments in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Using the same model provides fair comparability. Applying the quantitative assessments provides objectiveness of comparison. Three types of downscaling experiments were performed for one month of choice. The first type is serving as a base whereas the large scale information is communicated through lateral boundary conditions only; the second is using the grid analysis nudging; and the third is using spectral nudging. Emphases are given to the experiments of different nudging coefficients and nudging to different variables in the grid analysis nudging; while in spectral nudging, we focus on testing the nudging coefficients, different wave numbers on different model levels to nudge.

Functional Resilience against Climate-Driven Extinctions – Comparing the Functional Diversity of European and North American Tree Floras

PubMed Central

Liebergesell, Mario; Stahl, Ulrike; Freiberg, Martin; Welk, Erik; Kattge, Jens; Cornelissen, J. Hans C.; Peñuelas, Josep

2016-01-01

Future global change scenarios predict a dramatic loss of biodiversity for many regions in the world, potentially reducing the resistance and resilience of ecosystem functions. Once before, during Plio-Pleistocene glaciations, harsher climatic conditions in Europe as compared to North America led to a more depauperate tree flora. Here we hypothesize that this climate driven species loss has also reduced functional diversity in Europe as compared to North America. We used variation in 26 traits for 154 North American and 66 European tree species and grid-based co-occurrences derived from distribution maps to compare functional diversity patterns of the two continents. First, we identified similar regions with respect to contemporary climate in the temperate zone of North America and Europe. Second, we compared the functional diversity of both continents and for the climatically similar sub-regions using the functional dispersion-index (FDis) and the functional richness index (FRic). Third, we accounted in these comparisons for grid-scale differences in species richness, and, fourth, investigated the associated trait spaces using dimensionality reduction. For gymnosperms we find similar functional diversity on both continents, whereas for angiosperms functional diversity is significantly greater in Europe than in North America. These results are consistent across different scales, for climatically similar regions and considering species richness patterns. We decomposed these differences in trait space occupation into differences in functional diversity vs. differences in functional identity. We show that climate-driven species loss on a continental scale might be decoupled from or at least not linearly related to changes in functional diversity. This might be important when analyzing the effects of climate-driven biodiversity change on ecosystem functioning. PMID:26848836

Increased ocean heat transports and warmer climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rind, D.; Chandler, M.

1991-01-01

The impact of an increased ocean heat transport on climate is investigated in the framework of the GISS GMC model described by Hansen et al. (1983), using two scenarios: one starting from warmer polar temperatures/no sea ice and the other from the current ocean conditions. A 20-percent increase in cross-equatorial heat transport was sufficient to melt all sea ice; it resulted in a climate that was 2 C warmer for the global average, with values some 20-deg warmer at high altitudes and 1-deg warmer near the equator. It is suggested that the hydrological and dynamical changes associated with this different climate regime may be self-sustaining and, as such, would account for the high-latitude warmth of climates in the Mesozoic and Tertiary periods and the decadenal-scale climate fluctuations during the Holocene.

Laws of distribution of the snow cover on the greater Caucasus (Soviet Union)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gurtovaya, Y. Y.; Sulakvelidze, G. K.; Yashina, A. V.

1985-01-01

The laws of the distribution of the snow cover on the mountains of the greater Caucasus are discussed. It is shown that an extremely unequal distribution of the snow cover is caused by the complex orography of this territory, the diversity of climatic conditions and by the difference in altitude. Regions of constant, variable and unstable snow cover are distinguished because of the clearly marked division into altitude layers, each of which is characterized by climatic differences in the nature of the snow accumulation.