Dynamical evidence for causality between galactic cosmic rays and interannual variation in global temperature.

PubMed

Tsonis, Anastasios A; Deyle, Ethan R; May, Robert M; Sugihara, George; Swanson, Kyle; Verbeten, Joshua D; Wang, Geli

2015-03-17

As early as 1959, it was hypothesized that an indirect link between solar activity and climate could be mediated by mechanisms controlling the flux of galactic cosmic rays (CR) [Ney ER (1959) Nature 183:451-452]. Although the connection between CR and climate remains controversial, a significant body of laboratory evidence has emerged at the European Organization for Nuclear Research [Duplissy J, et al. (2010) Atmos Chem Phys 10:1635-1647; Kirkby J, et al. (2011) Nature 476(7361):429-433] and elsewhere [Svensmark H, Pedersen JOP, Marsh ND, Enghoff MB, Uggerhøj UI (2007) Proc R Soc A 463:385-396; Enghoff MB, Pedersen JOP, Uggerhoj UI, Paling SM, Svensmark H (2011) Geophys Res Lett 38:L09805], demonstrating the theoretical mechanism of this link. In this article, we present an analysis based on convergent cross mapping, which uses observational time series data to directly examine the causal link between CR and year-to-year changes in global temperature. Despite a gross correlation, we find no measurable evidence of a causal effect linking CR to the overall 20th-century warming trend. However, on short interannual timescales, we find a significant, although modest, causal effect between CR and short-term, year-to-year variability in global temperature that is consistent with the presence of nonlinearities internal to the system. Thus, although CR do not contribute measurably to the 20th-century global warming trend, they do appear as a nontraditional forcing in the climate system on short interannual timescales.

Militarism and globalization: Is there an empirical link?

PubMed

Irandoust, Manuchehr

2018-01-01

Despite the fact that previous studies have extensively investigated the causal nexus between military expenditure and economic growth in both developed and developing countries, those studies have not considered the role of globalization. The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between militarism and globalization for the top 15 military expenditure spenders over the period 1990-2012. The bootstrap panel Granger causality approach is utilized to detect the direction of causality. The results show that military expenditure and overall globalization are causally related in most of the countries under review. This implies that countries experiencing greater globalization have relatively large increases in militarization over the past 20 years. The policy implication of the findings is that greater military spending by a country increases the likelihood of military conflict in the future, the anticipation of which discourages globalization.

A Causality Analysis of the Link between Higher Education and Economic Development.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

De Meulemeester, Jean-Luc; Rochat, Denis

1995-01-01

Summarizes a study exploring the relationship between higher education and economic development, using cointegration and Granger-causality tests. Results show a significant causality from higher education efforts in Sweden, United Kingdom, Japan, and France. However, a similar causality link has not been found for Italy or Australia. (68…

Causal Relationships Among Time Series of the Lange Bramke Catchment (Harz Mountains, Germany)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aufgebauer, Britta; Hauhs, Michael; Bogner, Christina; Meesenburg, Henning; Lange, Holger

2016-04-01

Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM) has recently been introduced by Sugihara et al. for the identification and quantification of causal relationships among ecosystem variables. In particular, the method allows to decide on the direction of causality; in some cases, the causality might be bidirectional, indicating a network structure. We extend this approach by introducing a method of surrogate data to obtain confidence intervals for CCM results. We then apply this method to time series from stream water chemistry. Specifically, we analyze a set of eight dissolved major ions from three different catchments belonging to the hydrological monitoring system at the Bramke valley in the Harz Mountains, Germany. Our results demonstrate the potentials and limits of CCM as a monitoring instrument in forestry and hydrology or as a tool to identify processes in ecosystem research. While some networks of causally linked ions can be associated with simple physical and chemical processes, other results illustrate peculiarities of the three studied catchments, which are explained in the context of their special history.

Causal relationships between milk quality and coagulation properties in Italian Holstein-Friesian dairy cattle.

PubMed

Tiezzi, Francesco; Valente, Bruno D; Cassandro, Martino; Maltecca, Christian

2015-05-13

Recently, selection for milk technological traits was initiated in the Italian dairy cattle industry based on direct measures of milk coagulation properties (MCP) such as rennet coagulation time (RCT) and curd firmness 30 min after rennet addition (a30) and on some traditional milk quality traits that are used as predictors, such as somatic cell score (SCS) and casein percentage (CAS). The aim of this study was to shed light on the causal relationships between traditional milk quality traits and MCP. Different structural equation models that included causal effects of SCS and CAS on RCT and a30 and of RCT on a30 were implemented in a Bayesian framework. Our results indicate a non-zero magnitude of the causal relationships between the traits studied. Causal effects of SCS and CAS on RCT and a30 were observed, which suggests that the relationship between milk coagulation ability and traditional milk quality traits depends more on phenotypic causal pathways than directly on common genetic influence. While RCT does not seem to be largely controlled by SCS and CAS, some of the variation in a30 depends on the phenotypes of these traits. However, a30 depends heavily on coagulation time. Our results also indicate that, when direct effects of SCS, CAS and RCT are considered simultaneously, most of the overall genetic variability of a30 is mediated by other traits. This study suggests that selection for RCT and a30 should not be performed on correlated traits such as SCS or CAS but on direct measures because the ability of milk to coagulate is improved through the causal effect that the former play on the latter, rather than from a common source of genetic variation. Breaking the causal link (e.g. standardizing SCS or CAS before the milk is processed into cheese) would reduce the impact of the improvement due to selective breeding. Since a30 depends heavily on RCT, the relative emphasis that is put on this trait should be reconsidered and weighted for the fact that the pure measure of a30 almost double-counts RCT.

Causes and correlations in cambium phenology: towards an integrated framework of xylogenesis.

PubMed

Rossi, Sergio; Morin, Hubert; Deslauriers, Annie

2012-03-01

Although habitually considered as a whole, xylogenesis is a complex process of division and maturation of a pool of cells where the relationship between the phenological phases generating such a growth pattern remains essentially unknown. This study investigated the causal relationships in cambium phenology of black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP] monitored for 8 years on four sites of the boreal forest of Quebec, Canada. The dependency links connecting the timing of xylem cell differentiation and cell production were defined and the resulting causal model was analysed with d-sep tests and generalized mixed models with repeated measurements, and tested with Fisher's C statistics to determine whether and how causality propagates through the measured variables. The higher correlations were observed between the dates of emergence of the first developing cells and between the ending of the differentiation phases, while the number of cells was significantly correlated with all phenological phases. The model with eight dependency links was statistically valid for explaining the causes and correlations between the dynamics of cambium phenology. Causal modelling suggested that the phenological phases involved in xylogenesis are closely interconnected by complex relationships of cause and effect, with the onset of cell differentiation being the main factor directly or indirectly triggering all successive phases of xylem maturation.

Causes and correlations in cambium phenology: towards an integrated framework of xylogenesis

PubMed Central

Rossi, Sergio; Morin, Hubert; Deslauriers, Annie

2012-01-01

Although habitually considered as a whole, xylogenesis is a complex process of division and maturation of a pool of cells where the relationship between the phenological phases generating such a growth pattern remains essentially unknown. This study investigated the causal relationships in cambium phenology of black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP] monitored for 8 years on four sites of the boreal forest of Quebec, Canada. The dependency links connecting the timing of xylem cell differentiation and cell production were defined and the resulting causal model was analysed with d-sep tests and generalized mixed models with repeated measurements, and tested with Fisher’s C statistics to determine whether and how causality propagates through the measured variables. The higher correlations were observed between the dates of emergence of the first developing cells and between the ending of the differentiation phases, while the number of cells was significantly correlated with all phenological phases. The model with eight dependency links was statistically valid for explaining the causes and correlations between the dynamics of cambium phenology. Causal modelling suggested that the phenological phases involved in xylogenesis are closely interconnected by complex relationships of cause and effect, with the onset of cell differentiation being the main factor directly or indirectly triggering all successive phases of xylem maturation. PMID:22174441

Conjectures on the relations of linking and causality in causally simple spacetimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chernov, Vladimir

2018-05-01

We formulate the generalization of the Legendrian Low conjecture of Natario and Tod (proved by Nemirovski and myself before) to the case of causally simple spacetimes. We prove a weakened version of the corresponding statement. In all known examples, a causally simple spacetime can be conformally embedded as an open subset into some globally hyperbolic and the space of light rays in is an open submanifold of the space of light rays in . If this is always the case, this provides an approach to solving the conjectures relating causality and linking in causally simple spacetimes.

The power of possibility: causal learning, counterfactual reasoning, and pretend play

PubMed Central

Buchsbaum, Daphna; Bridgers, Sophie; Skolnick Weisberg, Deena; Gopnik, Alison

2012-01-01

We argue for a theoretical link between the development of an extended period of immaturity in human evolution and the emergence of powerful and wide-ranging causal learning mechanisms, specifically the use of causal models and Bayesian learning. We suggest that exploratory childhood learning, childhood play in particular, and causal cognition are closely connected. We report an empirical study demonstrating one such connection—a link between pretend play and counterfactual causal reasoning. Preschool children given new information about a causal system made very similar inferences both when they considered counterfactuals about the system and when they engaged in pretend play about it. Counterfactual cognition and causally coherent pretence were also significantly correlated even when age, general cognitive development and executive function were controlled for. These findings link a distinctive human form of childhood play and an equally distinctive human form of causal inference. We speculate that, during human evolution, computations that were initially reserved for solving particularly important ecological problems came to be used much more widely and extensively during the long period of protected immaturity. PMID:22734063

The power of possibility: causal learning, counterfactual reasoning, and pretend play.

PubMed

Buchsbaum, Daphna; Bridgers, Sophie; Skolnick Weisberg, Deena; Gopnik, Alison

2012-08-05

We argue for a theoretical link between the development of an extended period of immaturity in human evolution and the emergence of powerful and wide-ranging causal learning mechanisms, specifically the use of causal models and Bayesian learning. We suggest that exploratory childhood learning, childhood play in particular, and causal cognition are closely connected. We report an empirical study demonstrating one such connection--a link between pretend play and counterfactual causal reasoning. Preschool children given new information about a causal system made very similar inferences both when they considered counterfactuals about the system and when they engaged in pretend play about it. Counterfactual cognition and causally coherent pretence were also significantly correlated even when age, general cognitive development and executive function were controlled for. These findings link a distinctive human form of childhood play and an equally distinctive human form of causal inference. We speculate that, during human evolution, computations that were initially reserved for solving particularly important ecological problems came to be used much more widely and extensively during the long period of protected immaturity.

Do Historical Changes in Parent-Child Relationships Explain Increases in Youth Conduct Problems?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Collishaw, Stephan; Gardner, Frances; Maughan, Barbara; Scott, Jacqueline; Pickles, Andrew

2012-01-01

The coincidence of historical trends in youth antisocial behavior and change in family demographics has led to speculation of a causal link, possibly mediated by declining quality of parenting and parent-child relationships. No study to date has directly assessed whether and how parenting and parent-child relationships have changed. Two national…

DES daughters in France: experts' points of view on the various genital, uterine and obstetric pathologies, and in utero DES exposure.

PubMed

Clement, R; Guilbaud, E; Barrios, L; Rougé-Maillart, C; Jousset, N; Rodat, O

2014-10-01

Compensation of diethylstilbestrol exposure depends on the judicial system. In France, girls having been exposed to diethylstilbestrol are currently being compensated, and each exposure victim is being evaluated. Fifty-nine expert evaluations were studied to determine the causal relation between exposure to diethylstilbestrol and the pathologies attributable to diethylstilbestrol. The following were taken into consideration: age at the first signs of the pathology; age of the sufferer at the time of evaluation; the pathologies grouped into five categories: fertility disorders - cancers - mishaps during pregnancy - psychosomatic complaints - pathologies of "3rd generation DES victims"; submission of proof of DES exposure; the degree of causality determined (direct, indirect, ruled out). 61% of the cases related to fertility disorders, 28.8% to cancer pathologies (clear-cell adenocarcinoma), 18.6% to mishaps during pregnancy, 8.5% to disorders resulting from preterm delivery, and 3.4% to psychosomatic disorders. Some cases involved a combination of two types of complaints. Indirect causality was determined in 47.1% of the cases involving primary sterility, in 66.7% involving secondary sterility, and in 5 out of 6 cases of total sterility. There is direct causality between in utero diethylstilbestrol exposure and vaginal or cervical clear cell adenocarcinoma. Causality is indirect in the case of disorders linked to prematurity in third generation victims. Causality was determined by the experts on the basis of scientific criteria which attribute the presenting pathologies to diethylstilbestrol exposure. When other risk factors come into play, or when exposure is indirect (third generation), this causality is diminished. © IMechE 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

Revisiting the child health-wealth nexus.

PubMed

Fakir, Adnan M S

2016-12-01

The causal link between a household's economic standing and child health is known to suffer from endogeneity. While past studies have exemplified the causal link to be small, albeit statistically significant, this paper aims to estimate the causal effect to investigate whether the effect of income after controlling for the endogeneity remains small in the long run. By correcting for the bias, and knowing the bias direction, one can also infer about the underlying backward effect. This paper uses an instrument variables two-stage-least-squares estimation on the Young Lives 2009 cross-sectional dataset from Andhra Pradesh, India, to understand the aforementioned relationship. The selected measure of household economic standing differentially affects the estimation. There is significant positive effect of both short-run household expenditure and long-run household wealth on child stunting, with the latter having a larger impact. The backward link running from child health to household income is likely an inverse association in our sample with lower child health inducing higher earnings. While higher average community education improved child health, increased community entertainment expenditure is found to have a negative effect. While policies catered towards improving household wealth will decrease child stunting in the long run, maternal education and the community play an equally reinforcing role in improving child health and are perhaps faster routes to achieving the goal of better child health in the short run.

Processing of positive-causal and negative-causal coherence relations in primary school children and adults: a test of the cumulative cognitive complexity approach in German.

PubMed

Knoepke, Julia; Richter, Tobias; Isberner, Maj-Britt; Naumann, Johannes; Neeb, Yvonne; Weinert, Sabine

2017-03-01

Establishing local coherence relations is central to text comprehension. Positive-causal coherence relations link a cause and its consequence, whereas negative-causal coherence relations add a contrastive meaning (negation) to the causal link. According to the cumulative cognitive complexity approach, negative-causal coherence relations are cognitively more complex than positive-causal ones. Therefore, they require greater cognitive effort during text comprehension and are acquired later in language development. The present cross-sectional study tested these predictions for German primary school children from Grades 1 to 4 and adults in reading and listening comprehension. Accuracy data in a semantic verification task support the predictions of the cumulative cognitive complexity approach. Negative-causal coherence relations are cognitively more demanding than positive-causal ones. Moreover, our findings indicate that children's comprehension of negative-causal coherence relations continues to develop throughout the course of primary school. Findings are discussed with respect to the generalizability of the cumulative cognitive complexity approach to German.

Causal and causally separable processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oreshkov, Ognyan; Giarmatzi, Christina

2016-09-01

The idea that events are equipped with a partial causal order is central to our understanding of physics in the tested regimes: given two pointlike events A and B, either A is in the causal past of B, B is in the causal past of A, or A and B are space-like separated. Operationally, the meaning of these order relations corresponds to constraints on the possible correlations between experiments performed in the vicinities of the respective events: if A is in the causal past of B, an experimenter at A could signal to an experimenter at B but not the other way around, while if A and B are space-like separated, no signaling is possible in either direction. In the context of a concrete physical theory, the correlations compatible with a given causal configuration may obey further constraints. For instance, space-like correlations in quantum mechanics arise from local measurements on joint quantum states, while time-like correlations are established via quantum channels. Similarly to other variables, however, the causal order of a set of events could be random, and little is understood about the constraints that causality implies in this case. A main difficulty concerns the fact that the order of events can now generally depend on the operations performed at the locations of these events, since, for instance, an operation at A could influence the order in which B and C occur in A’s future. So far, no formal theory of causality compatible with such dynamical causal order has been developed. Apart from being of fundamental interest in the context of inferring causal relations, such a theory is imperative for understanding recent suggestions that the causal order of events in quantum mechanics can be indefinite. Here, we develop such a theory in the general multipartite case. Starting from a background-independent definition of causality, we derive an iteratively formulated canonical decomposition of multipartite causal correlations. For a fixed number of settings and outcomes for each party, these correlations form a polytope whose facets define causal inequalities. The case of quantum correlations in this paradigm is captured by the process matrix formalism. We investigate the link between causality and the closely related notion of causal separability of quantum processes, which we here define rigorously in analogy with the link between Bell locality and separability of quantum states. We show that causality and causal separability are not equivalent in general by giving an example of a physically admissible tripartite quantum process that is causal but not causally separable. We also show that there are causally separable quantum processes that become non-causal if extended by supplying the parties with entangled ancillas. This motivates the concepts of extensibly causal and extensibly causally separable (ECS) processes, for which the respective property remains invariant under extension. We characterize the class of ECS quantum processes in the tripartite case via simple conditions on the form of the process matrix. We show that the processes realizable by classically controlled quantum circuits are ECS and conjecture that the reverse also holds.

Weak English Language Literacy and Early School Leaving in a Maltese Context

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Martinelli, Victor

2016-01-01

This study considers the issue of weak literacy development and early school leaving in Malta. In spite of a lack of a direct or indirect causal link between the two, in the case of Malta these issues seem to be almost exclusively specific to children attending the State school. Children from the Church and the Independent sectors are minimally…

75 FR 7209 - Airworthiness Directives; Rolls-Royce Corporation (RRC) AE 3007A Series Turbofan Engines

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-02-18

... any comments on this proposed AD by March 22, 2010. ADDRESSES: Use one of the following addresses to... field data to have a causal link to a manufacturing process that led to incomplete shot peening on the... determined to have been fully shot peened in the drive arm fillet are excluded from the inspection...

The influence of farmer demographic characteristics on environmental behaviour: a review.

PubMed

Burton, Rob J F

2014-03-15

Many agricultural studies have observed a relationship between farmer demographic characteristics and environmental behaviours. These relationships are frequently employed in the construction of models, the identification of farmer types, or as part of more descriptive analyses aimed at understanding farmers' environmental behaviour. However, they have also often been found to be inconsistent or contradictory. Although a considerable body of literature has built up around the subject area, research has a tendency to focus on factors such as the direction, strength and consistency of the relationship - leaving the issue of causality largely to speculation. This review addresses this gap by reviewing literature on 4 key demographic variables: age, experience, education, and gender for hypothesised causal links. Overall the review indicates that the issue of causality is a complex one. Inconsistent relationships can be attributed to the presence of multiple causal pathways, the role of scheme factors in determining which pathway is important, inadequately specified measurements of demographic characteristics, and the treatment of non-linear causalities as linear. In addition, all demographic characteristics were perceived to be influenced (to varying extents) by cultural-historical patterns leading to cohort effects or socialised differences in the relationship with environmental behaviour. The paper concludes that more work is required on the issue of causality. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Learning about causes from people and about people as causes: probabilistic models and social causal reasoning.

PubMed

Buchsbaum, Daphna; Seiver, Elizabeth; Bridgers, Sophie; Gopnik, Alison

2012-01-01

A major challenge children face is uncovering the causal structure of the world around them. Previous research on children's causal inference has demonstrated their ability to learn about causal relationships in the physical environment using probabilistic evidence. However, children must also learn about causal relationships in the social environment, including discovering the causes of other people's behavior, and understanding the causal relationships between others' goal-directed actions and the outcomes of those actions. In this chapter, we argue that social reasoning and causal reasoning are deeply linked, both in the real world and in children's minds. Children use both types of information together and in fact reason about both physical and social causation in fundamentally similar ways. We suggest that children jointly construct and update causal theories about their social and physical environment and that this process is best captured by probabilistic models of cognition. We first present studies showing that adults are able to jointly infer causal structure and human action structure from videos of unsegmented human motion. Next, we describe how children use social information to make inferences about physical causes. We show that the pedagogical nature of a demonstrator influences children's choices of which actions to imitate from within a causal sequence and that this social information interacts with statistical causal evidence. We then discuss how children combine evidence from an informant's testimony and expressed confidence with evidence from their own causal observations to infer the efficacy of different potential causes. We also discuss how children use these same causal observations to make inferences about the knowledge state of the social informant. Finally, we suggest that psychological causation and attribution are part of the same causal system as physical causation. We present evidence that just as children use covariation between physical causes and their effects to learn physical causal relationships, they also use covaration between people's actions and the environment to make inferences about the causes of human behavior.

Experimental manipulation of avian social structure reveals segregation is carried over across contexts

PubMed Central

Firth, Josh A.; Sheldon, Ben C.

2015-01-01

Our current understanding of animal social networks is largely based on observations or experiments that do not directly manipulate associations between individuals. Consequently, evidence relating to the causal processes underlying such networks is limited. By imposing specified rules controlling individual access to feeding stations, we directly manipulated the foraging social network of a wild bird community, thus demonstrating how external factors can shape social structure. We show that experimentally imposed constraints were carried over into patterns of association at unrestricted, ephemeral food patches, as well as at nesting sites during breeding territory prospecting. Hence, different social contexts can be causally linked, and constraints at one level may have consequences that extend into other aspects of sociality. Finally, the imposed assortment was lost following the cessation of the experimental manipulation, indicating the potential for previously perturbed social networks of wild animals to recover from segregation driven by external constraints. PMID:25652839

Motivation and burnout among top amateur rugby players.

PubMed

Cresswell, Scott L; Eklund, Robert C

2005-03-01

Self-determination theory has proven to be a useful theoretical explanation of the occurrence of ill-being on a variety of accounts. Self-determination theory may also provide a useful explanation of the occurrence of athlete burnout. To date, limited evidence exists to support links between motivation and burnout. To examine relationships and potential causal directions among burnout and types of motivation differing in degree of self-determination. Data were collected on burnout using the Athlete Burnout Questionnaire and Sport Motivation Scale from 392 top amateur male rugby players. Structural equation modeling procedures were employed to evaluate a measurement model and three conceptually grounded structural models. One conceptual model specified concomitant (noncausal) relationships between burnout and motivations varying in self-determination. The other conceptual models specified causal pathways between burnout and the three motivation variables considered in the investigation (i.e., intrinsic motivation, external regulation, and amotivation). Within the models, amotivation, the least self-determined type of motivation, had a large positive association with burnout. Externally regulated motivation had trivial and nonsignificant relationships with burnout. Self-determined forms of motivation (i.e., intrinsic motivation) exhibited significant negative associations with burnout. Overall the results support the potential utility of a self-determination theory explanation of burnout. As all models displayed reasonable and comparable fits, further research is required to establish the nature (concomitant vs directional causal vs reciprocal causal) of the relationship between burnout and motivation.

Black-box Brain Experiments, Causal Mathematical Logic, and the Thermodynamics of Intelligence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pissanetzky, Sergio; Lanzalaco, Felix

2013-12-01

Awareness of the possible existence of a yet-unknown principle of Physics that explains cognition and intelligence does exist in several projects of emulation, simulation, and replication of the human brain currently under way. Brain simulation projects define their success partly in terms of the emergence of non-explicitly programmed biophysical signals such as self-oscillation and spreading cortical waves. We propose that a recently discovered theory of Physics known as Causal Mathematical Logic (CML) that links intelligence with causality and entropy and explains intelligent behavior from first principles, is the missing link. We further propose the theory as a roadway to understanding more complex biophysical signals, and to explain the set of intelligence principles. The new theory applies to information considered as an entity by itself. The theory proposes that any device that processes information and exhibits intelligence must satisfy certain theoretical conditions irrespective of the substrate where it is being processed. The substrate can be the human brain, a part of it, a worm's brain, a motor protein that self-locomotes in response to its environment, a computer. Here, we propose to extend the causal theory to systems in Neuroscience, because of its ability to model complex systems without heuristic approximations, and to predict emerging signals of intelligence directly from the models. The theory predicts the existence of a large number of observables (or "signals"), all of which emerge and can be directly and mathematically calculated from non-explicitly programmed detailed causal models. This approach is aiming for a universal and predictive language for Neuroscience and AGI based on causality and entropy, detailed enough to describe the finest structures and signals of the brain, yet general enough to accommodate the versatility and wholeness of intelligence. Experiments are focused on a black-box as one of the devices described above of which both the input and the output are precisely known, but not the internal implementation. The same input is separately supplied to a causal virtual machine, and the calculated output is compared with the measured output. The virtual machine, described in a previous paper, is a computer implementation of CML, fixed for all experiments and unrelated to the device in the black box. If the two outputs are equivalent, then the experiment has quantitatively succeeded and conclusions can be drawn regarding details of the internal implementation of the device. Several small black-box experiments were successfully performed and demonstrated the emergence of non-explicitly programmed cognitive function in each case

Common species link global ecosystems to climate change: dynamical evidence in the planktonic fossil record.

PubMed

Hannisdal, Bjarte; Haaga, Kristian Agasøster; Reitan, Trond; Diego, David; Liow, Lee Hsiang

2017-07-12

Common species shape the world around us, and changes in their commonness signify large-scale shifts in ecosystem structure and function. However, our understanding of long-term ecosystem response to environmental forcing in the deep past is centred on species richness, neglecting the disproportional impact of common species. Here, we use common and widespread species of planktonic foraminifera in deep-sea sediments to track changes in observed global occupancy (proportion of sampled sites at which a species is present and observed) through the turbulent climatic history of the last 65 Myr. Our approach is sensitive to relative changes in global abundance of the species set and robust to factors that bias richness estimators. Using three independent methods for detecting causality, we show that the observed global occupancy of planktonic foraminifera has been dynamically coupled to past oceanographic changes captured in deep-ocean temperature reconstructions. The causal inference does not imply a direct mechanism, but is consistent with an indirect, time-delayed causal linkage. Given the strong quantitative evidence that a dynamical coupling exists, we hypothesize that mixotrophy (symbiont hosting) may be an ecological factor linking the global abundance of planktonic foraminifera to long-term climate changes via the relative extent of oligotrophic oceans. © 2017 The Authors.

Developing Causal Understanding with Causal Maps: The Impact of Total Links, Temporal Flow, and Lateral Position of Outcome Nodes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jeong, Allan; Lee, Woon Jee

2012-01-01

This study examined some of the methodological approaches used by students to construct causal maps in order to determine which approaches help students understand the underlying causes and causal mechanisms in a complex system. This study tested the relationship between causal understanding (ratio of root causes correctly/incorrectly identified,…

Spillover effects in epidemiology: parameters, study designs and methodological considerations

PubMed Central

Benjamin-Chung, Jade; Arnold, Benjamin F; Berger, David; Luby, Stephen P; Miguel, Edward; Colford Jr, John M; Hubbard, Alan E

2018-01-01

Abstract Many public health interventions provide benefits that extend beyond their direct recipients and impact people in close physical or social proximity who did not directly receive the intervention themselves. A classic example of this phenomenon is the herd protection provided by many vaccines. If these ‘spillover effects’ (i.e. ‘herd effects’) are present in the same direction as the effects on the intended recipients, studies that only estimate direct effects on recipients will likely underestimate the full public health benefits of the intervention. Causal inference assumptions for spillover parameters have been articulated in the vaccine literature, but many studies measuring spillovers of other types of public health interventions have not drawn upon that literature. In conjunction with a systematic review we conducted of spillovers of public health interventions delivered in low- and middle-income countries, we classified the most widely used spillover parameters reported in the empirical literature into a standard notation. General classes of spillover parameters include: cluster-level spillovers; spillovers conditional on treatment or outcome density, distance or the number of treated social network links; and vaccine efficacy parameters related to spillovers. We draw on high quality empirical examples to illustrate each of these parameters. We describe study designs to estimate spillovers and assumptions required to make causal inferences about spillovers. We aim to advance and encourage methods for spillover estimation and reporting by standardizing spillover parameter nomenclature and articulating the causal inference assumptions required to estimate spillovers. PMID:29106568

Perceived Causal Relations: Novel Methodology for Assessing Client Attributions about Causal Associations between Variables Including Symptoms and Functional Impairment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Frewen, Paul A.; Allen, Samantha L.; Lanius, Ruth A.; Neufeld, Richard W. J.

2012-01-01

Researchers have argued that the investigation of causal interrelationships between symptoms may help explain the high comorbidity rate between certain psychiatric disorders. Clients' own attributions concerning the causal interrelationships linking the co-occurrence of their symptoms represent data that may inform their clinical case…

A Bayesian Theory of Sequential Causal Learning and Abstract Transfer

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lu, Hongjing; Rojas, Randall R.; Beckers, Tom; Yuille, Alan L.

2016-01-01

Two key research issues in the field of causal learning are how people acquire causal knowledge when observing data that are presented sequentially, and the level of abstraction at which learning takes place. Does sequential causal learning solely involve the acquisition of specific cause-effect links, or do learners also acquire knowledge about…

A model for diagnosing and explaining multiple disorders.

PubMed

Jamieson, P W

1991-08-01

The ability to diagnose multiple interacting disorders and explain them in a coherent causal framework has only partially been achieved in medical expert systems. This paper proposes a causal model for diagnosing and explaining multiple disorders whose key elements are: physician-directed hypotheses generation, object-oriented knowledge representation, and novel explanation heuristics. The heuristics modify and link the explanations to make the physician aware of diagnostic complexities. A computer program incorporating the model currently is in use for diagnosing peripheral nerve and muscle disorders. The program successfully diagnoses and explains interactions between diseases in terms of underlying pathophysiologic concepts. The model offers a new architecture for medical domains where reasoning from first principles is difficult but explanation of disease interactions is crucial for the system's operation.

Causal pathways linking Farm to School to childhood obesity prevention.

PubMed

Joshi, Anupama; Ratcliffe, Michelle M

2012-08-01

Farm to School programs are rapidly gaining attention as a potential strategy for preventing childhood obesity; however, the causal linkages between Farm to School activities and health outcomes are not well documented. To capitalize on the increased interest in and momentum for Farm to School, researchers and practitioners need to move from developing and implementing evidence informed programs and policies to ones that are evidence-based. The purpose of this article is to outline a framework for facilitating an evidence base for Farm to School programs and policies through a systematic and coordinated approach. Employing the concepts of causal pathways, the authors introduce a proposed framework for organizing and systematically testing out multiple hypotheses (or potential causal links) for how, why, and under what conditions Farm to School Inputs and Activities may result in what Outputs, Effects, and Impacts. Using the causal pathways framework may help develop and test competing hypotheses, identify multicausality, strength, and interactions of causes, and discern the difference between catalysts and causes. In this article, we introduce causal pathways, present menus of potential independent and dependent variables from which to create and test causal pathways linking Farm to School interventions and their role in preventing childhood obesity, discuss their applicability to Farm to School research and practice, and outline proposed next steps for developing a coordinated research framework for Farm to School programs.

How to Be Causal: Time, Spacetime and Spectra

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kinsler, Paul

2011-01-01

I explain a simple definition of causality in widespread use, and indicate how it links to the Kramers-Kronig relations. The specification of causality in terms of temporal differential equations then shows us the way to write down dynamical models so that their causal nature "in the sense used here" should be obvious to all. To extend existing…

Systemic risk and causality dynamics of the world international shipping market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xin; Podobnik, Boris; Kenett, Dror Y.; Eugene Stanley, H.

2014-12-01

Various studies have reported that many economic systems have been exhibiting an increase in the correlation between different market sectors, a factor that exacerbates the level of systemic risk. We measure this systemic risk of three major world shipping markets, (i) the new ship market, (ii) the second-hand ship market, and (iii) the freight market, as well as the shipping stock market. Based on correlation networks during three time periods, that prior to the financial crisis, during the crisis, and after the crisis, minimal spanning trees (MSTs) and hierarchical trees (HTs) both exhibit complex dynamics, i.e., different market sectors tend to be more closely linked during financial crisis. Brownian distance correlation and Granger causality test both can be used to explore the directional interconnectedness of market sectors, while Brownian distance correlation captures more dependent relationships, which are not observed in the Granger causality test. These two measures can also identify and quantify market regression periods, implying that they contain predictive power for the current crisis.

Zika Virus Infection and Microcephaly: Evidence for a Causal Link.

PubMed

Wang, Jin-Na; Ling, Feng

2016-10-20

Zika virus (ZIKV) is a flavivirus related to the Dengue, yellow fever and West Nile viruses. Since the explosive outbreaks of ZIKV in Latin America in 2015, a sudden increase in the number of microcephaly cases has been observed in infants of women who were pregnant when they contracted the virus. The severity of this condition raises grave concerns, and extensive studies on the possible link between ZIKV infection and microcephaly have been conducted. There is substantial evidence suggesting that there is a causal link between ZIKV and microcephaly, however, future studies are warranted to solidify this association. To summarize the most recent evidence on this issue and provide perspectives for future studies, we reviewed the literature to identify existing evidence of the causal link between ZIKV infection and microcephaly within research related to the epidemics, laboratory diagnosis, and possible mechanisms.

Environmental influences on energy balance-related behaviors: A dual-process view

PubMed Central

Kremers, Stef PJ; de Bruijn, Gert-Jan; Visscher, Tommy LS; van Mechelen, Willem; de Vries, Nanne K; Brug, Johannes

2006-01-01

Background Studies on the impact of the 'obesogenic' environment have often used non-theoretical approaches. In this journal's debate and in other papers authors have argued the necessity of formulating conceptual models for differentiating the causal role of environmental influences on behavior. Discussion The present paper aims to contribute to the debate by presenting a dual-process view on the environment – behavior relationship. This view is conceptualized in the EnRG framework (Environmental Research framework for weight Gain prevention). In the framework, behavior is postulated to be the result of a simultaneous influence of conscious and unconscious processes. Environmental influences are hypothesized to influence behavior both indirectly and directly. The indirect causal mechanism reflects the mediating role of behavior-specific cognitions in the influence of the environment on behavior. A direct influence reflects the automatic, unconscious, influence of the environment on behavior. Specific personal and behavioral factors are postulated to moderate the causal path (i.e., inducing either the automatic or the cognitively mediated environment – behavior relation). In addition, the EnRG framework applies an energy balance-approach, stimulating the integrated study of determinants of diet and physical activity. Conclusion The application of a dual-process view may guide research towards causal mechanisms linking specific environmental features with energy balance-related behaviors in distinct populations. The present paper is hoped to contribute to the evolution of a paradigm that may help to disentangle the role of 'obesogenic' environmental factors. PMID:16700907

Making sense of (exceptional) causal relations. A cross-cultural and cross-linguistic study.

PubMed

Le Guen, Olivier; Samland, Jana; Friedrich, Thomas; Hanus, Daniel; Brown, Penelope

2015-01-01

In order to make sense of the world, humans tend to see causation almost everywhere. Although most causal relations may seem straightforward, they are not always construed in the same way cross-culturally. In this study, we investigate concepts of "chance," "coincidence," or "randomness" that refer to assumed relations between intention, action, and outcome in situations, and we ask how people from different cultures make sense of such non-law-like connections. Based on a framework proposed by Alicke (2000), we administered a task that aims to be a neutral tool for investigating causal construals cross-culturally and cross-linguistically. Members of four different cultural groups, rural Mayan Yucatec and Tseltal speakers from Mexico and urban students from Mexico and Germany, were presented with a set of scenarios involving various types of causal and non-causal relations and were asked to explain the described events. Three links varied as to whether they were present or not in the scenarios: Intention-to-Action, Action-to-Outcome, and Intention-to-Outcome. Our results show that causality is recognized in all four cultural groups. However, how causality and especially non-law-like relations are interpreted depends on the type of links, the cultural background and the language used. In all three groups, Action-to-Outcome is the decisive link for recognizing causality. Despite the fact that the two Mayan groups share similar cultural backgrounds, they display different ideologies regarding concepts of non-law-like relations. The data suggests that the concept of "chance" is not universal, but seems to be an explanation that only some cultural groups draw on to make sense of specific situations. Of particular importance is the existence of linguistic concepts in each language that trigger ideas of causality in the responses from each cultural group.

Kindness in the blood: A randomized controlled trial of the gene regulatory impact of prosocial behavior.

PubMed

Nelson-Coffey, S Katherine; Fritz, Megan M; Lyubomirsky, Sonja; Cole, Steve W

2017-07-01

Prosocial behavior is linked to longevity, but few studies have experimentally manipulated prosocial behavior to identify the causal mechanisms underlying this association. One possible mediating pathway involves changes in gene expression that may subsequently influence disease development or resistance. In the current study, we examined changes in a leukocyte gene expression profile known as the Conserved Transcriptional Response to Adversity (CTRA) in 159 adults who were randomly assigned for 4 weeks to engage in prosocial behavior directed towards specific others, prosocial behavior directed towards the world in general, self-focused kindness, or a neutral control task. Those randomized to prosocial behavior towards specific others demonstrated improvements (i.e., reductions) in leukocyte expression of CTRA indicator genes. No significant changes in CTRA gene expression were observed in the other 3 conditions. These findings suggest that prosocial behavior can causally impact leukocyte gene expression profiles in ways that might potentially help explain the previously observed health advantages associated with social ties. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

75 FR 35457 - Draft of the 2010 Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System (CADDIS)

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-06-22

... Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System (CADDIS) AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency... site, ``2010 release of the Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System (CADDIS).'' The... analyses, downloadable software tools, and links to outside information sources. II. How to Submit Comments...

Tracking time-varying causality and directionality of information flow using an error reduction ratio test with applications to electroencephalography data.

PubMed

Zhao, Yifan; Billings, Steve A; Wei, Hualiang; Sarrigiannis, Ptolemaios G

2012-11-01

This paper introduces an error reduction ratio-causality (ERR-causality) test that can be used to detect and track causal relationships between two signals. In comparison to the traditional Granger method, one significant advantage of the new ERR-causality test is that it can effectively detect the time-varying direction of linear or nonlinear causality between two signals without fitting a complete model. Another important advantage is that the ERR-causality test can detect both the direction of interactions and estimate the relative time shift between the two signals. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the new method together with the determination of the causality between electroencephalograph signals from different cortical sites for patients during an epileptic seizure.

Alpha Oscillations Are Causally Linked to Inhibitory Abilities in Ageing.

PubMed

Borghini, Giulia; Candini, Michela; Filannino, Cristina; Hussain, Masud; Walsh, Vincent; Romei, Vincenzo; Zokaei, Nahid; Cappelletti, Marinella

2018-05-02

Aging adults typically show reduced ability to ignore task-irrelevant information, an essential skill for optimal performance in many cognitive operations, including those requiring working memory (WM) resources. In a first experiment, young and elderly human participants of both genders performed an established WM paradigm probing inhibitory abilities by means of valid, invalid, and neutral retro-cues. Elderly participants showed an overall cost, especially in performing invalid trials, whereas younger participants' general performance was comparatively higher, as expected.Inhibitory abilities have been linked to alpha brain oscillations but it is yet unknown whether in aging these oscillations (also typically impoverished) and inhibitory abilities are causally linked. To probe this possible causal link in aging, we compared in a second experiment parietal alpha-transcranial alternating current stimulation (tACS) with either no stimulation (Sham) or with two control stimulation frequencies (theta- and gamma-tACS) in the elderly group while performing the same WM paradigm. Alpha- (but not theta- or gamma-) tACS selectively and significantly improved performance (now comparable to younger adults' performance in the first experiment), particularly for invalid cues where initially elderly showed the highest costs. Alpha oscillations are therefore causally linked to inhibitory abilities and frequency-tuned alpha-tACS interventions can selectively change these abilities in the elderly. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Ignoring task-irrelevant information, an ability associated to rhythmic brain activity in the alpha frequency band, is fundamental for optimal performance. Indeed, impoverished inhibitory abilities contribute to age-related decline in cognitive functions like working memory (WM), the capacity to briefly hold information in mind. Whether in aging adults alpha oscillations and inhibitory abilities are causally linked is yet unknown. We experimentally manipulated frequency-tuned brain activity using transcranial alternating current stimulation (tACS), combined with a retro-cue paradigm assessing WM and inhibition. We found that alpha-tACS induced a significant improvement in target responses and misbinding errors, two indexes of inhibition. We concluded that in aging alpha oscillations are causally linked to inhibitory abilities, and that despite being impoverished, these abilities are still malleable. Copyright © 2018 the authors 0270-6474/18/384419-12$15.00/0.

Inverse odds ratio-weighted estimation for causal mediation analysis.

PubMed

Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric J

2013-11-20

An important scientific goal of studies in the health and social sciences is increasingly to determine to what extent the total effect of a point exposure is mediated by an intermediate variable on the causal pathway between the exposure and the outcome. A causal framework has recently been proposed for mediation analysis, which gives rise to new definitions, formal identification results and novel estimators of direct and indirect effects. In the present paper, the author describes a new inverse odds ratio-weighted approach to estimate so-called natural direct and indirect effects. The approach, which uses as a weight the inverse of an estimate of the odds ratio function relating the exposure and the mediator, is universal in that it can be used to decompose total effects in a number of regression models commonly used in practice. Specifically, the approach may be used for effect decomposition in generalized linear models with a nonlinear link function, and in a number of other commonly used models such as the Cox proportional hazards regression for a survival outcome. The approach is simple and can be implemented in standard software provided a weight can be specified for each observation. An additional advantage of the method is that it easily incorporates multiple mediators of a categorical, discrete or continuous nature. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Telling the Tale and Living Well: Adolescent Narrative Identity, Personality Traits, and Well-Being Across Cultures.

PubMed

Reese, Elaine; Myftari, Ella; McAnally, Helena M; Chen, Yan; Neha, Tia; Wang, Qi; Jack, Fiona; Robertson, Sarah-Jane

2017-03-01

This study explored links between narrative identity, personality traits, and well-being for 263 adolescents (age 12-21) from three New Zealand cultures: Māori, Chinese, and European. Turning-point narratives were assessed for autobiographical reasoning (causal coherence), local thematic coherence, emotional expressivity, and topic. Across cultures, older adolescents with higher causal coherence reported better well-being. Younger adolescents with higher causal coherence instead reported poorer well-being. Personal development topics were positively linked to well-being for New Zealand European adolescents only, and thematic coherence was positively linked to well-being for Māori adolescents only. Negative expressivity, neuroticism, conscientiousness, and openness were also linked to well-being. Implications of these cultural similarities and differences are considered for theories of narrative identity, personality, and adolescent well-being. © 2016 The Authors. Child Development © 2016 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

From what might have been to what must have been: counterfactual thinking creates meaning.

PubMed

Kray, Laura J; George, Linda G; Liljenquist, Katie A; Galinsky, Adam D; Tetlock, Philip E; Roese, Neal J

2010-01-01

Four experiments explored whether 2 uniquely human characteristics-counterfactual thinking (imagining alternatives to the past) and the fundamental drive to create meaning in life-are causally related. Rather than implying a random quality to life, the authors hypothesized and found that counterfactual thinking heightens the meaningfulness of key life experiences. Reflecting on alternative pathways to pivotal turning points even produced greater meaning than directly reflecting on the meaning of the event itself. Fate perceptions ("it was meant to be") and benefit-finding (recognition of positive consequences) were identified as independent causal links between counterfactual thinking and the construction of meaning. Through counterfactual reflection, the upsides to reality are identified, a belief in fate emerges, and ultimately more meaning is derived from important life events.

Determining Directional Dependency in Causal Associations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pornprasertmanit, Sunthud; Little, Todd D.

2012-01-01

Directional dependency is a method to determine the likely causal direction of effect between two variables. This article aims to critique and improve upon the use of directional dependency as a technique to infer causal associations. We comment on several issues raised by von Eye and DeShon (2012), including: encouraging the use of the signs of…

CADDIS Related Links

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System, or CADDIS, is a website developed to help scientists and engineers in the Regions, States, and Tribes conduct causal assessments in aquatic systems.

From structure to function, via dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stetter, O.; Soriano, J.; Geisel, T.; Battaglia, D.

2013-01-01

Neurons in the brain are wired into a synaptic network that spans multiple scales, from local circuits within cortical columns to fiber tracts interconnecting distant areas. However, brain function require the dynamic control of inter-circuit interactions on time-scales faster than synaptic changes. In particular, strength and direction of causal influences between neural populations (described by the so-called directed functional connectivity) must be reconfigurable even when the underlying structural connectivity is fixed. Such directed functional influences can be quantified resorting to causal analysis of time-series based on tools like Granger Causality or Transfer Entropy. The ability to quickly reorganize inter-areal interactions is a chief requirement for performance in a changing natural environment. But how can manifold functional networks stem "on demand" from an essentially fixed structure? We explore the hypothesis that the self-organization of neuronal synchronous activity underlies the control of brain functional connectivity. Based on simulated and real recordings of critical neuronal cultures in vitro, as well as on mean-field and spiking network models of interacting brain areas, we have found that "function follows dynamics", rather than structure. Different dynamic states of a same structural network, characterized by different synchronization properties, are indeed associated to different functional digraphs (functional multiplicity). We also highlight the crucial role of dynamics in establishing a structure-to-function link, by showing that whenever different structural topologies lead to similar dynamical states, than the associated functional connectivities are also very similar (structural degeneracy).

Testing the Causal Links between School Climate, School Violence, and School Academic Performance: A Cross-Lagged Panel Autoregressive Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Benbenishty, Rami; Astor, Ron Avi; Roziner, Ilan; Wrabel, Stephani L.

2016-01-01

The present study explores the causal link between school climate, school violence, and a school's general academic performance over time using a school-level, cross-lagged panel autoregressive modeling design. We hypothesized that reductions in school violence and climate improvement would lead to schools' overall improved academic performance.…

The Well-Being of Children Born to Teen Mothers: Multiple Approaches to Assessing the Causal Links. JCPR Working Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levine, Judith A.; Pollack, Harold

This study used linked maternal-child data from the 1997-1998 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to explore the wellbeing of children born to teenage mothers. Two econometric techniques explored the causal impact of early childbearing on subsequent child and adolescent outcomes. First, a fixed-effect, cousin-comparison analysis controlled for…

Non-Bayesian Inference: Causal Structure Trumps Correlation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bes, Benedicte; Sloman, Steven; Lucas, Christopher G.; Raufaste, Eric

2012-01-01

The study tests the hypothesis that conditional probability judgments can be influenced by causal links between the target event and the evidence even when the statistical relations among variables are held constant. Three experiments varied the causal structure relating three variables and found that (a) the target event was perceived as more…

Mimesis: Linking Postmodern Theory to Human Behavior

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dybicz, Phillip

2010-01-01

This article elaborates mimesis as a theory of causality used to explain human behavior. Drawing parallels to social constructionism's critique of positivism and naturalism, mimesis is offered as a theory of causality explaining human behavior that contests the current dominance of Newton's theory of causality as cause and effect. The contestation…

Feature Inference and the Causal Structure of Categories

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rehder, B.; Burnett, R.C.

2005-01-01

The purpose of this article was to establish how theoretical category knowledge-specifically, knowledge of the causal relations that link the features of categories-supports the ability to infer the presence of unobserved features. Our experiments were designed to test proposals that causal knowledge is represented psychologically as Bayesian…

Estimating short-run and long-run interaction mechanisms in interictal state.

PubMed

Ozkaya, Ata; Korürek, Mehmet

2010-04-01

We address the issue of analyzing electroencephalogram (EEG) from seizure patients in order to test, model and determine the statistical properties that distinguish between EEG states (interictal, pre-ictal, ictal) by introducing a new class of time series analysis methods. In the present study: firstly, we employ statistical methods to determine the non-stationary behavior of focal interictal epileptiform series within very short time intervals; secondly, for such intervals that are deemed non-stationary we suggest the concept of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) process modelling, well known in time series analysis. We finally address the queries of causal relationships between epileptic states and between brain areas during epileptiform activity. We estimate the interaction between different EEG series (channels) in short time intervals by performing Granger-causality analysis and also estimate such interaction in long time intervals by employing Cointegration analysis, both analysis methods are well-known in econometrics. Here we find: first, that the causal relationship between neuronal assemblies can be identified according to the duration and the direction of their possible mutual influences; second, that although the estimated bidirectional causality in short time intervals yields that the neuronal ensembles positively affect each other, in long time intervals neither of them is affected (increasing amplitudes) from this relationship. Moreover, Cointegration analysis of the EEG series enables us to identify whether there is a causal link from the interictal state to ictal state.

Applying causal mediation analysis to personality disorder research.

PubMed

Walters, Glenn D

2018-01-01

This article is designed to address fundamental issues in the application of causal mediation analysis to research on personality disorders. Causal mediation analysis is used to identify mechanisms of effect by testing variables as putative links between the independent and dependent variables. As such, it would appear to have relevance to personality disorder research. It is argued that proper implementation of causal mediation analysis requires that investigators take several factors into account. These factors are discussed under 5 headings: variable selection, model specification, significance evaluation, effect size estimation, and sensitivity testing. First, care must be taken when selecting the independent, dependent, mediator, and control variables for a mediation analysis. Some variables make better mediators than others and all variables should be based on reasonably reliable indicators. Second, the mediation model needs to be properly specified. This requires that the data for the analysis be prospectively or historically ordered and possess proper causal direction. Third, it is imperative that the significance of the identified pathways be established, preferably with a nonparametric bootstrap resampling approach. Fourth, effect size estimates should be computed or competing pathways compared. Finally, investigators employing the mediation method are advised to perform a sensitivity analysis. Additional topics covered in this article include parallel and serial multiple mediation designs, moderation, and the relationship between mediation and moderation. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Causal uncertainty, claimed and behavioural self-handicapping.

PubMed

Thompson, Ted; Hepburn, Jonathan

2003-06-01

Causal uncertainty beliefs involve doubts about the causes of events, and arise as a consequence of non-contingent evaluative feedback: feedback that leaves the individual uncertain about the causes of his or her achievement outcomes. Individuals high in causal uncertainty are frequently unable to confidently attribute their achievement outcomes, experience anxiety in achievement situations and as a consequence are likely to engage in self-handicapping behaviour. Accordingly, we sought to establish links between trait causal uncertainty, claimed and behavioural self-handicapping. Participants were N=72 undergraduate students divided equally between high and low causally uncertain groups. We used a 2 (causal uncertainty status: high, low) x 3 (performance feedback condition: success, non-contingent success, non-contingent failure) between-subjects factorial design to examine the effects of causal uncertainty on achievement behaviour. Following performance feedback, participants completed 20 single-solution anagrams and 12 remote associate tasks serving as performance measures, and 16 unicursal tasks to assess practice effort. Participants also completed measures of claimed handicaps, state anxiety and attributions. Relative to low causally uncertain participants, high causally uncertain participants claimed more handicaps prior to performance on the anagrams and remote associates, reported higher anxiety, attributed their failure to internal, stable factors, and reduced practice effort on the unicursal tasks, evident in fewer unicursal tasks solved. These findings confirm links between trait causal uncertainty and claimed and behavioural self-handicapping, highlighting the need for educators to facilitate means by which students can achieve surety in the manner in which they attribute the causes of their achievement outcomes.

PREMER: a Tool to Infer Biological Networks.

PubMed

Villaverde, Alejandro F; Becker, Kolja; Banga, Julio R

2017-10-04

Inferring the structure of unknown cellular networks is a main challenge in computational biology. Data-driven approaches based on information theory can determine the existence of interactions among network nodes automatically. However, the elucidation of certain features - such as distinguishing between direct and indirect interactions or determining the direction of a causal link - requires estimating information-theoretic quantities in a multidimensional space. This can be a computationally demanding task, which acts as a bottleneck for the application of elaborate algorithms to large-scale network inference problems. The computational cost of such calculations can be alleviated by the use of compiled programs and parallelization. To this end we have developed PREMER (Parallel Reverse Engineering with Mutual information & Entropy Reduction), a software toolbox that can run in parallel and sequential environments. It uses information theoretic criteria to recover network topology and determine the strength and causality of interactions, and allows incorporating prior knowledge, imputing missing data, and correcting outliers. PREMER is a free, open source software tool that does not require any commercial software. Its core algorithms are programmed in FORTRAN 90 and implement OpenMP directives. It has user interfaces in Python and MATLAB/Octave, and runs on Windows, Linux and OSX (https://sites.google.com/site/premertoolbox/).

Making sense of (exceptional) causal relations. A cross-cultural and cross-linguistic study

PubMed Central

Le Guen, Olivier; Samland, Jana; Friedrich, Thomas; Hanus, Daniel; Brown, Penelope

2015-01-01

In order to make sense of the world, humans tend to see causation almost everywhere. Although most causal relations may seem straightforward, they are not always construed in the same way cross-culturally. In this study, we investigate concepts of “chance,” “coincidence,” or “randomness” that refer to assumed relations between intention, action, and outcome in situations, and we ask how people from different cultures make sense of such non-law-like connections. Based on a framework proposed by Alicke (2000), we administered a task that aims to be a neutral tool for investigating causal construals cross-culturally and cross-linguistically. Members of four different cultural groups, rural Mayan Yucatec and Tseltal speakers from Mexico and urban students from Mexico and Germany, were presented with a set of scenarios involving various types of causal and non-causal relations and were asked to explain the described events. Three links varied as to whether they were present or not in the scenarios: Intention-to-Action, Action-to-Outcome, and Intention-to-Outcome. Our results show that causality is recognized in all four cultural groups. However, how causality and especially non-law-like relations are interpreted depends on the type of links, the cultural background and the language used. In all three groups, Action-to-Outcome is the decisive link for recognizing causality. Despite the fact that the two Mayan groups share similar cultural backgrounds, they display different ideologies regarding concepts of non-law-like relations. The data suggests that the concept of “chance” is not universal, but seems to be an explanation that only some cultural groups draw on to make sense of specific situations. Of particular importance is the existence of linguistic concepts in each language that trigger ideas of causality in the responses from each cultural group. PMID:26579028

Remarks on neurocybernetics and its links to computing science. To the memory of Prof. Luigi M. Ricciardi.

PubMed

Moreno-Díaz, Roberto; Moreno-Díaz, Arminda

2013-06-01

This paper explores the origins and content of neurocybernetics and its links to artificial intelligence, computer science and knowledge engineering. Starting with three remarkable pieces of work, we center attention on a number of events that initiated and developed basic topics that are still nowadays a matter of research and inquire, from goal directed activity theories to circular causality and to reverberations and learning. Within this context, we pay tribute to the memory of Prof. Ricciardi documenting the importance of his contributions in the mathematics of brain, neural nets and neurophysiological models, computational simulations and techniques. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ecological Interventionist Causal Models in Psychosis: Targeting Psychological Mechanisms in Daily Life

PubMed Central

Reininghaus, Ulrich; Depp, Colin A.; Myin-Germeys, Inez

2016-01-01

Integrated models of psychotic disorders have posited a number of putative psychological mechanisms that may contribute to the development of psychotic symptoms, but it is only recently that a modest amount of experience sampling research has provided evidence on their role in daily life, outside the research laboratory. A number of methodological challenges remain in evaluating specificity of potential causal links between a given psychological mechanism and psychosis outcomes in a systematic fashion, capitalizing on longitudinal data to investigate temporal ordering. In this article, we argue for testing ecological interventionist causal models that draw on real world and real-time delivered, ecological momentary interventions for generating evidence on several causal criteria (association, time order, and direction/sole plausibility) under real-world conditions, while maximizing generalizability to social contexts and experiences in heterogeneous populations. Specifically, this approach tests whether ecological momentary interventions can (1) modify a putative mechanism and (2) produce changes in the mechanism that lead to sustainable changes in intended psychosis outcomes in individuals’ daily lives. Future research using this approach will provide translational evidence on the active ingredients of mobile health and in-person interventions that promote sustained effectiveness of ecological momentary interventions and, thereby, contribute to ongoing efforts that seek to enhance effectiveness of psychological interventions under real-world conditions. PMID:26707864

In Support of Clinical Case Reports: A System of Causality Assessment

PubMed Central

Hamre, Harald J.; Kienle, Gunver S.

2013-01-01

The usefulness of clinical research depends on an assessment of causality. This assessment determines what constitutes clinical evidence. Case reports are an example of evidence that is frequently overlooked because it is believed they cannot address causal links between treatment and outcomes. This may be a mistake. Clarity on the topic of causality and its assessment will be of benefit for researchers and clinicians. This article outlines an overall system of causality and causality assessment. The system proposed involves two dimensions: horizontal and vertical; each of these dimensions consists of three different types of causality and three corresponding types of causality assessment. Included in this system are diverse forms of case causality illustrated with examples from everyday life and clinical medicine. Assessing case causality can complement conventional clinical research in an era of personalized medicine. PMID:24416665

Therapists' causal attributions of clients' problems and selection of intervention strategies.

PubMed

Royce, W S; Muehlke, C V

1991-04-01

Therapists' choices of intervention strategies are influenced by many factors, including judgments about the bases of clients' problems. To assess the relationships between such causal attributions and the selection of intervention strategies, 196 counselors, psychologists, and social workers responded to the written transcript of a client's interview by answering two questionnaires, a 1982 scale (Causal Dimension Scale by Russell) which measured causal attribution of the client's problem, and another which measured preference for emotional, rational, and active intervention strategies in dealing with the client, based on the 1979 E-R-A taxonomy of Frey and Raming. A significant relationship was found between the two sets of variables, with internal attributions linked to rational intervention strategies and stable attributions linked to active strategies. The results support Halleck's 1978 hypothesis that theories of psychotherapy tie interventions to etiological considerations.

Causal Networks or Causal Islands? The Representation of Mechanisms and the Transitivity of Causal Judgment.

PubMed

Johnson, Samuel G B; Ahn, Woo-kyoung

2015-09-01

Knowledge of mechanisms is critical for causal reasoning. We contrasted two possible organizations of causal knowledge—an interconnected causal network, where events are causally connected without any boundaries delineating discrete mechanisms; or a set of disparate mechanisms—causal islands—such that events in different mechanisms are not thought to be related even when they belong to the same causal chain. To distinguish these possibilities, we tested whether people make transitive judgments about causal chains by inferring, given A causes B and B causes C, that A causes C. Specifically, causal chains schematized as one chunk or mechanism in semantic memory (e.g., exercising, becoming thirsty, drinking water) led to transitive causal judgments. On the other hand, chains schematized as multiple chunks (e.g., having sex, becoming pregnant, becoming nauseous) led to intransitive judgments despite strong intermediate links ((Experiments 1-3). Normative accounts of causal intransitivity could not explain these intransitive judgments (Experiments 4 and 5). Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Genetic causal beliefs about obesity, self-efficacy for weight control, and obesity-related behaviours in a middle-aged female cohort.

PubMed

Knerr, Sarah; Bowen, Deborah J; Beresford, Shirley A A; Wang, Catharine

2016-01-01

Obesity is a heritable condition with well-established risk-reducing behaviours. Studies have shown that beliefs about the causes of obesity are associated with diet and exercise behaviour. Identifying mechanisms linking causal beliefs and behaviours is important for obesity prevention and control. Cross-sectional multi-level regression analyses of self-efficacy for weight control as a possible mediator of obesity attributions (diet, physical activity, genetic) and preventive behaviours in 487 non-Hispanic White women from South King County, Washington. Self-reported daily fruit and vegetable intake and weekly leisure-time physical activity. Diet causal beliefs were positively associated with fruit and vegetable intake, with self-efficacy for weight control partially accounting for this association. Self-efficacy for weight control also indirectly linked physical activity attributions and physical activity behaviour. Relationships between genetic causal beliefs, self-efficacy for weight control, and obesity-related behaviours differed by obesity status. Self-efficacy for weight control contributed to negative associations between genetic causal attributions and obesity-related behaviours in non-obese, but not obese, women. Self-efficacy is an important construct to include in studies of genetic causal beliefs and behavioural self-regulation. Theoretical and longitudinal work is needed to clarify the causal nature of these relationships and other mediating and moderating factors.

Participatory Development and Analysis of a Fuzzy Cognitive Map of the Establishment of a Bio-Based Economy in the Humber Region

PubMed Central

Penn, Alexandra S.; Knight, Christopher J. K.; Lloyd, David J. B.; Avitabile, Daniele; Kok, Kasper; Schiller, Frank; Woodward, Amy; Druckman, Angela; Basson, Lauren

2013-01-01

Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) is a widely used participatory modelling methodology in which stakeholders collaboratively develop a ‘cognitive map’ (a weighted, directed graph), representing the perceived causal structure of their system. This can be directly transformed by a workshop facilitator into simple mathematical models to be interrogated by participants by the end of the session. Such simple models provide thinking tools which can be used for discussion and exploration of complex issues, as well as sense checking the implications of suggested causal links. They increase stakeholder motivation and understanding of whole systems approaches, but cannot be separated from an intersubjective participatory context. Standard FCM methodologies make simplifying assumptions, which may strongly influence results, presenting particular challenges and opportunities. We report on a participatory process, involving local companies and organisations, focussing on the development of a bio-based economy in the Humber region. The initial cognitive map generated consisted of factors considered key for the development of the regional bio-based economy and their directional, weighted, causal interconnections. A verification and scenario generation procedure, to check the structure of the map and suggest modifications, was carried out with a second session. Participants agreed on updates to the original map and described two alternate potential causal structures. In a novel analysis all map structures were tested using two standard methodologies usually used independently: linear and sigmoidal FCMs, demonstrating some significantly different results alongside some broad similarities. We suggest a development of FCM methodology involving a sensitivity analysis with different mappings and discuss the use of this technique in the context of our case study. Using the results and analysis of our process, we discuss the limitations and benefits of the FCM methodology in this case and in general. We conclude by proposing an extended FCM methodology, including multiple functional mappings within one participant-constructed graph. PMID:24244303

Helicobacter pylori and colorectal neoplasia: Is there a causal link?

PubMed Central

Papastergiou, Vasilios; Karatapanis, Stylianos; Georgopoulos, Sotirios D

2016-01-01

Ever since Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) was recognized as an infectious cause of gastric cancer, there has been increasing interest in examining its potential role in colorectal carcinogenesis. Data from case-control and cross-sectional studies, mostly relying on hospital-based samples, and several meta-analyses have shown a positive statistical relationship between H. pylori infection and colorectal neoplasia. However, the possibility exists that the results have been influenced by bias, including the improper selection of patients and disparities with respect to potential confounders. While the evidence falls short of a definitive causal link, it appears that infection with H. pylori/H. pylori-related gastritis is associated with an increased, although modest, risk of colorectal adenoma and cancer. The pathogenic mechanisms responsible for this association remain uncertain. H. pylori has been detected in colorectal malignant tissues; however, the possibility that H. pylori is a direct activator of colonic carcinogenesis remains purely hypothetical. On the other hand, experimental data have indicated a series of potential oncogenic interactions between these bacteria and colorectal mucosa, including induction and perpetuation of inflammatory responses, alteration of gut microflora and release of toxins and/or hormonal mediators, such as gastrin, which may contribute to tumor formation. PMID:26811614

Long-Term Consequences of Early Sexual Initiation on Young Adult Health: A Causal Inference Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kugler, Kari C.; Vasilenko, Sara A.; Butera, Nicole M.; Coffman, Donna L.

2017-01-01

Although early sexual initiation has been linked to negative outcomes, it is unknown whether these effects are causal. In this study, we use propensity score methods to estimate the causal effect of early sexual initiation on young adult sexual risk behaviors and health outcomes using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to…

Blocking a Redundant Cue: What Does It Say about Preschoolers' Causal Competence?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kloos, Heidi; Sloutsky, Vladimir M.

2013-01-01

The current study investigates the degree to which preschoolers can engage in causal inferences in a blocking paradigm, a paradigm in which a cue is consistently linked with a target, either alone (A-T) or paired with another cue (AB-T). Unlike previous blocking studies with preschoolers, we manipulated the causal structure of the events without…

Bats and zoonotic viruses: can we confidently link bats with emerging deadly viruses?

PubMed Central

Moratelli, Ricardo; Calisher, Charles H

2015-01-01

An increasingly asked question is 'can we confidently link bats with emerging viruses?'. No, or not yet, is the qualified answer based on the evidence available. Although more than 200 viruses - some of them deadly zoonotic viruses - have been isolated from or otherwise detected in bats, the supposed connections between bats, bat viruses and human diseases have been raised more on speculation than on evidence supporting their direct or indirect roles in the epidemiology of diseases (except for rabies). However, we are convinced that the evidence points in that direction and that at some point it will be proved that bats are competent hosts for at least a few zoonotic viruses. In this review, we cover aspects of bat biology, ecology and evolution that might be relevant in medical investigations and we provide a historical synthesis of some disease outbreaks causally linked to bats. We provide evolutionary-based hypotheses to tentatively explain the viral transmission route through mammalian intermediate hosts and to explain the geographic concentration of most outbreaks, but both are no more than speculations that still require formal assessment. PMID:25742261

Prenatal nutrition, epigenetics and schizophrenia risk: can we test causal effects?

PubMed

Kirkbride, James B; Susser, Ezra; Kundakovic, Marija; Kresovich, Jacob K; Davey Smith, George; Relton, Caroline L

2012-06-01

We posit that maternal prenatal nutrition can influence offspring schizophrenia risk via epigenetic effects. In this article, we consider evidence that prenatal nutrition is linked to epigenetic outcomes in offspring and schizophrenia in offspring, and that schizophrenia is associated with epigenetic changes. We focus upon one-carbon metabolism as a mediator of the pathway between perturbed prenatal nutrition and the subsequent risk of schizophrenia. Although post-mortem human studies demonstrate DNA methylation changes in brains of people with schizophrenia, such studies cannot establish causality. We suggest a testable hypothesis that utilizes a novel two-step Mendelian randomization approach, to test the component parts of the proposed causal pathway leading from prenatal nutritional exposure to schizophrenia. Applied here to a specific example, such an approach is applicable for wider use to strengthen causal inference of the mediating role of epigenetic factors linking exposures to health outcomes in population-based studies.

The causal link among militarization, economic growth, CO2 emission, and energy consumption.

PubMed

Bildirici, Melike E

2017-02-01

This paper examines the long-run and the causal relationship among CO 2 emissions, militarization, economic growth, and energy consumption for USA for the period 1960-2013. Using the bound test approach to cointegration, a short-run as well as a long-run relationship among the variables with a positive and a statistically significant relationship between CO 2 emissions and militarization was found. To determine the causal link, MWALD and Rao's F tests were applied. According to Rao's F tests, the evidence of a unidirectional causality running from militarization to CO 2 emissions, from energy consumption to CO 2 emissions, and from militarization to energy consumption all without a feedback was found. Further, the results determined that 26% of the forecast-error variance of CO 2 emissions was explained by the forecast error variance of militarization and 60% by energy consumption.

Mutation Analysis in Classical Phenylketonuria Patients Followed by Detecting Haplotypes Linked to Some PAH Mutations.

PubMed

Dehghanian, Fatemeh; Silawi, Mohammad; Tabei, Seyed M B

2017-02-01

Deficiency of phenylalanine hydroxylase (PAH) enzyme and elevation of phenylalanine in body fluids cause phenylketonuria (PKU). The gold standard for confirming PKU and PAH deficiency is detecting causal mutations by direct sequencing of the coding exons and splicing involved sequences of the PAH gene. Furthermore, haplotype analysis could be considered as an auxiliary approach for detecting PKU causative mutations before direct sequencing of the PAH gene by making comparisons between prior detected mutation linked-haplotypes and new PKU case haplotypes with undetermined mutations. In this study, 13 unrelated classical PKU patients took part in the study detecting causative mutations. Mutations were identified by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and direct sequencing in all patients. After that, haplotype analysis was performed by studying VNTR and PAHSTR markers (linked genetic markers of the PAH gene) through application of PCR and capillary electrophoresis (CE). Mutation analysis was performed successfully and the detected mutations were as follows: c.782G>A, c.754C>T, c.842C>G, c.113-115delTCT, c.688G>A, and c.696A>G. Additionally, PAHSTR/VNTR haplotypes were detected to discover haplotypes linked to each mutation. Mutation detection is the best approach for confirming PAH enzyme deficiency in PKU patients. Due to the relatively large size of the PAH gene and high cost of the direct sequencing in developing countries, haplotype analysis could be used before DNA sequencing and mutation detection for a faster and cheaper way via identifying probable mutated exons.

Inactivation of the Parietal Reach Region Causes Optic Ataxia, Impairing Reaches but Not Saccades

PubMed Central

Hwang, Eun Jung; Hauschild, Markus; Wilke, Melanie; Andersen, Richard A.

2013-01-01

SUMMARY Lesions in human posterior parietal cortex can cause optic ataxia (OA), in which reaches but not saccades to visual objects are impaired, suggesting separate visuomotor pathways for the two effectors. In monkeys, one potentially crucial area for reach control is the parietal reach region (PRR), in which neurons respond preferentially during reach planning as compared to saccade planning. However, direct causal evidence linking the monkey PRR to the deficits observed in OA is missing. We thus inactivated part of the macaque PRR, in the medial wall of the intraparietal sulcus, and produced the hallmarks of OA, misreaching for peripheral targets but unimpaired saccades. Furthermore, reach errors were larger for the targets preferred by the neural population local to the injection site. These results demonstrate that PRR is causally involved in reach-specific visuomotor pathways, and reach goal disruption in PRR can be a neural basis of OA. PMID:23217749

Category transfer in sequential causal learning: the unbroken mechanism hypothesis.

PubMed

Hagmayer, York; Meder, Björn; von Sydow, Momme; Waldmann, Michael R

2011-07-01

The goal of the present set of studies is to explore the boundary conditions of category transfer in causal learning. Previous research has shown that people are capable of inducing categories based on causal learning input, and they often transfer these categories to new causal learning tasks. However, occasionally learners abandon the learned categories and induce new ones. Whereas previously it has been argued that transfer is only observed with essentialist categories in which the hidden properties are causally relevant for the target effect in the transfer relation, we here propose an alternative explanation, the unbroken mechanism hypothesis. This hypothesis claims that categories are transferred from a previously learned causal relation to a new causal relation when learners assume a causal mechanism linking the two relations that is continuous and unbroken. The findings of two causal learning experiments support the unbroken mechanism hypothesis. Copyright © 2011 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Prior knowledge driven Granger causality analysis on gene regulatory network discovery

DOE PAGES

Yao, Shun; Yoo, Shinjae; Yu, Dantong

2015-08-28

Our study focuses on discovering gene regulatory networks from time series gene expression data using the Granger causality (GC) model. However, the number of available time points (T) usually is much smaller than the number of target genes (n) in biological datasets. The widely applied pairwise GC model (PGC) and other regularization strategies can lead to a significant number of false identifications when n>>T. In this study, we proposed a new method, viz., CGC-2SPR (CGC using two-step prior Ridge regularization) to resolve the problem by incorporating prior biological knowledge about a target gene data set. In our simulation experiments, themore » propose new methodology CGC-2SPR showed significant performance improvement in terms of accuracy over other widely used GC modeling (PGC, Ridge and Lasso) and MI-based (MRNET and ARACNE) methods. In addition, we applied CGC-2SPR to a real biological dataset, i.e., the yeast metabolic cycle, and discovered more true positive edges with CGC-2SPR than with the other existing methods. In our research, we noticed a “ 1+1>2” effect when we combined prior knowledge and gene expression data to discover regulatory networks. Based on causality networks, we made a functional prediction that the Abm1 gene (its functions previously were unknown) might be related to the yeast’s responses to different levels of glucose. In conclusion, our research improves causality modeling by combining heterogeneous knowledge, which is well aligned with the future direction in system biology. Furthermore, we proposed a method of Monte Carlo significance estimation (MCSE) to calculate the edge significances which provide statistical meanings to the discovered causality networks. All of our data and source codes will be available under the link https://bitbucket.org/dtyu/granger-causality/wiki/Home.« less

Confounding factors in determining causal soil moisture-precipitation feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuttle, Samuel E.; Salvucci, Guido D.

2017-07-01

Identification of causal links in the land-atmosphere system is important for construction and testing of land surface and general circulation models. However, the land and atmosphere are highly coupled and linked by a vast number of complex, interdependent processes. Statistical methods, such as Granger causality, can help to identify feedbacks from observational data, independent of the different parameterizations of physical processes and spatiotemporal resolution effects that influence feedbacks in models. However, statistical causal identification methods can easily be misapplied, leading to erroneous conclusions about feedback strength and sign. Here, we discuss three factors that must be accounted for in determination of causal soil moisture-precipitation feedback in observations and model output: seasonal and interannual variability, precipitation persistence, and endogeneity. The effect of neglecting these factors is demonstrated in simulated and observational data. The results show that long-timescale variability and precipitation persistence can have a substantial effect on detected soil moisture-precipitation feedback strength, while endogeneity has a smaller effect that is often masked by measurement error and thus is more likely to be an issue when analyzing model data or highly accurate observational data.

Ectodermal dysplasias: A clinical classification and a causal review

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pinheiro, M.; Freire-Maia, N.

1994-11-01

The authors present a causal review of 154 ectodermal dysplasias (EDs) as classified into 11 clinical subgroups. The number of EDs in each subgroup varies from one to 43. The numbers of conditions due to autosomal dominant, autosomal recessive, and X-linked genes are, respectively, 41, 52, and 8. In 53 conditions cause is unknown; 35 of them present some causal (genetic) suggestion.

Genetic causal beliefs about obesity, self-efficacy for weight control, and obesity-related behaviours in a middle-aged female cohort

PubMed Central

Knerr, Sarah; Bowen, Deborah J.; Beresford, Shirley A.A.; Wang, Catharine

2015-01-01

Objective Obesity is a heritable condition with well-established risk-reducing behaviours. Studies have shown that beliefs about the causes of obesity are associated with diet and exercise behaviour. Identifying mechanisms linking causal beliefs and behaviours is important for obesity prevention and control. Design Cross-sectional multi-level regression analyses of self-efficacy for weight control as a possible mediator of obesity attributions (diet, physical activity, genetic) and preventive behaviours in 487 non-Hispanic White women from South King County, Washington. Main Outcome Measures Self-reported daily fruit and vegetable intake and weekly leisure-time physical activity. Results Diet causal beliefs were positively associated with fruit and vegetable intake, with self-efficacy for weight control partially accounting for this association. Self-efficacy for weight control also indirectly linked physical activity attributions and physical activity behaviour. Relationships between genetic causal beliefs, self-efficacy for weight control, and obesity-related behaviours differed by obesity status. Self-efficacy for weight control contributed to negative associations between genetic causal attributions and obesity-related behaviours in non-obese, but not obese, women. Conclusion Self-efficacy is an important construct to include in studies of genetic causal beliefs and behavioural self-regulation. Theoretical and longitudinal work is needed to clarify the causal nature of these relationships and other mediating and moderating factors. PMID:26542069

Motivational and psychological correlates of bodybuilding dependence

PubMed Central

EMINI, NEIM N.; BOND, MALCOLM J.

2014-01-01

Abstract Background and aims: Exercise may become physically and psychologically maladaptive if taken to extremes. One example is the dependence reported by some individuals who engage in weight training. The current study explored potential psychological, motivational, emotional and behavioural concomitants of bodybuilding dependence, with a particular focus on motives for weight training. Using a path analysis paradigm, putative causal models sought to explain associations among key study variables. Methods: A convenience sample of 101 men aged between 18 and 67 years was assembled from gymnasia in Adelaide, South Australia. Active weight trainers voluntarily completed a questionnaire that included measures of bodybuilding dependence (social dependency, training dependency, and mastery), anger, hostility and aggression, stress and motivations for weight training. Results: Three motives for weight training were identified: mood control, physique anxiety and personal challenge. Of these, personal challenge and mood control were the most directly salient to dependence. Social dependency was particularly relevant to personal challenge, whereas training dependency was associated with both personal challenge and mood control. Mastery demonstrated a direct link with physique anxiety, thus reflecting a unique component of exercise dependence. Conclusions: While it was not possible to determine causality with the available data, the joint roles of variables that influence, or are influenced by, bodybuilding dependence are identified. Results highlight unique motivations for bodybuilding and suggest that dependence could be a result of, and way of coping with, stress manifesting as aggression. A potential framework for future research is provided through the demonstration of plausible causal linkages among these variables. PMID:25317342

Motivational and psychological correlates of bodybuilding dependence.

PubMed

Emini, Neim N; Bond, Malcolm J

2014-09-01

Exercise may become physically and psychologically maladaptive if taken to extremes. One example is the dependence reported by some individuals who engage in weight training. The current study explored potential psychological, motivational, emotional and behavioural concomitants of bodybuilding dependence, with a particular focus on motives for weight training. Using a path analysis paradigm, putative causal models sought to explain associations among key study variables. A convenience sample of 101 men aged between 18 and 67 years was assembled from gymnasia in Adelaide, South Australia. Active weight trainers voluntarily completed a questionnaire that included measures of bodybuilding dependence (social dependency, training dependency, and mastery), anger, hostility and aggression, stress and motivations for weight training. Three motives for weight training were identified: mood control, physique anxiety and personal challenge. Of these, personal challenge and mood control were the most directly salient to dependence. Social dependency was particularly relevant to personal challenge, whereas training dependency was associated with both personal challenge and mood control. Mastery demonstrated a direct link with physique anxiety, thus reflecting a unique component of exercise dependence. While it was not possible to determine causality with the available data, the joint roles of variables that influence, or are influenced by, bodybuilding dependence are identified. RESULTS highlight unique motivations for bodybuilding and suggest that dependence could be a result of, and way of coping with, stress manifesting as aggression. A potential framework for future research is provided through the demonstration of plausible causal linkages among these variables.

Dopamine Modulates Egalitarian Behavior In Humans

PubMed Central

Sáez, Ignacio; Zhu, Lusha; Set, Eric; Kayser, Andrew; Hsu, Ming

2015-01-01

SUMMARY Egalitarian motives form a powerful force in promoting prosocial behavior and enabling large-scale cooperation in the human species [1]. At the neural level, there is substantial, albeit correlational, evidence suggesting a link between dopamine and such behavior [2, 3]. However, important questions remain about the specific role of dopamine in setting or modulating behavioral sensitivity to prosocial concerns. Here, using a combination of pharmacological tools and economic games, we provide critical evidence for a causal involvement of dopamine in human egalitarian tendencies. Specifically, using the brain-penetrant catechol-O-methyl transferase (COMT) inhibitor tolcapone [4, 5], we investigated the causal relationship between dopaminergic mechanisms and two prosocial concerns at the core of a number of widely used economic games: (i) the extent to which individuals directly value the material payoffs of others, i.e., generosity, and (ii) the extent to which they are averse to differences between their own payoffs and those of others, i.e., inequity. We found that dopaminergic augmentation via COMT inhibition increased egalitarian tendencies in participants who played an extended version of the dictator game [6]. Strikingly, computational modeling of choice behavior [7] revealed that tolcapone exerted selective effects on inequity aversion, and not on other computational components such as the extent to which individuals directly value the material payoffs of others. Together, these data shed light on the causal relationship between neurochemical systems and human prosocial behavior, and have potential implications for our understanding of the complex array of social impairments accompanying neuropsychiatric disorders involving dopaminergic dysregulation. PMID:25802148

Antibiotics and antibiotic resistance in agroecosystems: State of the science

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

We propose a simple causal model depicting relationships involved in dissemination of antibiotics and antibiotic resistance in agroecosystems and potential effects on human health, functioning of natural ecosystems, and agricultural productivity. Available evidence for each causal link is briefly su...

New Evidence on Causal Relationship between Approximate Number System (ANS) Acuity and Arithmetic Ability in Elementary-School Students: A Longitudinal Cross-Lagged Analysis.

PubMed

He, Yunfeng; Zhou, Xinlin; Shi, Dexin; Song, Hairong; Zhang, Hui; Shi, Jiannong

2016-01-01

Approximate number system (ANS) acuity and mathematical ability have been found to be closely associated in recent studies. However, whether and how these two measures are causally related still remain less addressed. There are two hypotheses about the possible causal relationship: ANS acuity influences mathematical performances, or access to math education sharpens ANS acuity. Evidences in support of both hypotheses have been reported, but these two hypotheses have never been tested simultaneously. Therefore, questions still remain whether only one-direction or reciprocal causal relationships existed in the association. In this work, we provided a new evidence on the causal relationship between ANS acuity and arithmetic ability. ANS acuity and mathematical ability of elementary-school students were measured sequentially at three time points within one year, and all possible causal directions were evaluated simultaneously using cross-lagged regression analysis. The results show that ANS acuity influences later arithmetic ability while the reverse causal direction was not supported. Our finding adds a strong evidence to the causal association between ANS acuity and mathematical ability, and also has important implications for educational intervention designed to train ANS acuity and thereby promote mathematical ability.

New Evidence on Causal Relationship between Approximate Number System (ANS) Acuity and Arithmetic Ability in Elementary-School Students: A Longitudinal Cross-Lagged Analysis

PubMed Central

He, Yunfeng; Zhou, Xinlin; Shi, Dexin; Song, Hairong; Zhang, Hui; Shi, Jiannong

2016-01-01

Approximate number system (ANS) acuity and mathematical ability have been found to be closely associated in recent studies. However, whether and how these two measures are causally related still remain less addressed. There are two hypotheses about the possible causal relationship: ANS acuity influences mathematical performances, or access to math education sharpens ANS acuity. Evidences in support of both hypotheses have been reported, but these two hypotheses have never been tested simultaneously. Therefore, questions still remain whether only one-direction or reciprocal causal relationships existed in the association. In this work, we provided a new evidence on the causal relationship between ANS acuity and arithmetic ability. ANS acuity and mathematical ability of elementary-school students were measured sequentially at three time points within one year, and all possible causal directions were evaluated simultaneously using cross-lagged regression analysis. The results show that ANS acuity influences later arithmetic ability while the reverse causal direction was not supported. Our finding adds a strong evidence to the causal association between ANS acuity and mathematical ability, and also has important implications for educational intervention designed to train ANS acuity and thereby promote mathematical ability. PMID:27462291

Strategic environmental assessment performance factors and their interaction: An empirical study in China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Tianwei, E-mail: li.tianwei@mep.gov.cn; Wang, Huizhi, E-mail: huizhiwangnk@163.com; Deng, Baole, E-mail: dengbaolekobe@126.com

Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) has been seen as a preventive and participatory environmental management tool designed to integrate environmental protection into the decision-making process. However, the debate about SEA performance and effectiveness has increased in recent decades. Two main challenges exist in relation to this issue. The first is identifying the key influencing factors that affect SEA effectiveness, and the second is analyzing the relationship between SEA and these influencing factors. In this study, influencing factors were investigated through questionnaire surveys in the Chinese context, and then a Structural Equation Model (SEM) was developed and tested to identify potential linksmore » and causal relationships among factors. The associations between the independent factors were divided into direct and indirect causal associations. The results indicate that the decision-making process and policy context directly affect SEA implementation, while information and data sharing, public participation, expertise and SEA institutions are indirectly related with SEA. The results also suggest that a lack of cooperation between different sectors is an obstacle to the implementation of SEA. These findings could potentially contribute to the future management and implementation of SEA or enhance existing knowledge of SEA. The results show that the proposed model has a degree of feasibility and applicability. - Highlights: • Influencing factors were identified and investigated through questionnaire surveys. • Structural Equation Model (SEM) was developed and tested to identify potential links and causal relationships among factors. • Decision-making process and policy context directly affect SEA implementation. • Lack of cooperation among different sectors is an obstacle to the implementation of SEA. • The proposed model has a degree of feasibility and applicability.« less

Understanding causal associations between self-rated health and personal relationships in older adults: A review of evidence from longitudinal studies.

PubMed

Craigs, Cheryl L; Twiddy, Maureen; Parker, Stuart G; West, Robert M

2014-01-01

As we age we experience many life changes in our health, personal relationships, work, or home life which can impact on other aspects of our life. There is compelling evidence that how we feel about our health influences, or is influenced by, the personal relationships we experience with friends and relatives. Currently the direction this association takes is unclear. To assess the level of published evidence available on causal links between self-rated health and personal relationships in older adults. MEDLINE, CINAHL, and PsycINFO searches from inception to June 2012 and hand searches of publication lists, reference lists and citations were used to identify primary studies utilizing longitudinal data to investigate self-rated health and personal relationships in older adults. Thirty-one articles were identified. Only three articles employed methods suitable to explore causal associations between changes in self-rated health and changes in personal relationships. Two of these articles suggested that widowhood leads to a reduction in self-rated health in the short term, while the remaining article suggested a causal relationship between self-rated health and negative emotional support from family or friends, but this was complex and mediated by self-esteem and sense of control. While there is an abundance of longitudinal aging cohorts available which can be used to investigate self-rated health and personal relationships over time the potential for these databases to be used to investigate causal associations is currently not being recognized. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Refined mapping of autoimmune disease associated genetic variants with gene expression suggests an important role for non-coding RNAs.

PubMed

Ricaño-Ponce, Isis; Zhernakova, Daria V; Deelen, Patrick; Luo, Oscar; Li, Xingwang; Isaacs, Aaron; Karjalainen, Juha; Di Tommaso, Jennifer; Borek, Zuzanna Agnieszka; Zorro, Maria M; Gutierrez-Achury, Javier; Uitterlinden, Andre G; Hofman, Albert; van Meurs, Joyce; Netea, Mihai G; Jonkers, Iris H; Withoff, Sebo; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Li, Yang; Ruan, Yijun; Franke, Lude; Wijmenga, Cisca; Kumar, Vinod

2016-04-01

Genome-wide association and fine-mapping studies in 14 autoimmune diseases (AID) have implicated more than 250 loci in one or more of these diseases. As more than 90% of AID-associated SNPs are intergenic or intronic, pinpointing the causal genes is challenging. We performed a systematic analysis to link 460 SNPs that are associated with 14 AID to causal genes using transcriptomic data from 629 blood samples. We were able to link 71 (39%) of the AID-SNPs to two or more nearby genes, providing evidence that for part of the AID loci multiple causal genes exist. While 54 of the AID loci are shared by one or more AID, 17% of them do not share candidate causal genes. In addition to finding novel genes such as ULK3, we also implicate novel disease mechanisms and pathways like autophagy in celiac disease pathogenesis. Furthermore, 42 of the AID SNPs specifically affected the expression of 53 non-coding RNA genes. To further understand how the non-coding genome contributes to AID, the SNPs were linked to functional regulatory elements, which suggest a model where AID genes are regulated by network of chromatin looping/non-coding RNAs interactions. The looping model also explains how a causal candidate gene is not necessarily the gene closest to the AID SNP, which was the case in nearly 50% of cases. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Identifying Seizure Onset Zone From the Causal Connectivity Inferred Using Directed Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malladi, Rakesh; Kalamangalam, Giridhar; Tandon, Nitin; Aazhang, Behnaam

2016-10-01

In this paper, we developed a model-based and a data-driven estimator for directed information (DI) to infer the causal connectivity graph between electrocorticographic (ECoG) signals recorded from brain and to identify the seizure onset zone (SOZ) in epileptic patients. Directed information, an information theoretic quantity, is a general metric to infer causal connectivity between time-series and is not restricted to a particular class of models unlike the popular metrics based on Granger causality or transfer entropy. The proposed estimators are shown to be almost surely convergent. Causal connectivity between ECoG electrodes in five epileptic patients is inferred using the proposed DI estimators, after validating their performance on simulated data. We then proposed a model-based and a data-driven SOZ identification algorithm to identify SOZ from the causal connectivity inferred using model-based and data-driven DI estimators respectively. The data-driven SOZ identification outperforms the model-based SOZ identification algorithm when benchmarked against visual analysis by neurologist, the current clinical gold standard. The causal connectivity analysis presented here is the first step towards developing novel non-surgical treatments for epilepsy.

Alpha Power Modulates Perception Independently of Endogenous Factors.

PubMed

Brüers, Sasskia; VanRullen, Rufin

2018-01-01

Oscillations are ubiquitous in the brain. Alpha oscillations in particular have been proposed to play an important role in sensory perception. Past studies have shown that the power of ongoing EEG oscillations in the alpha band is negatively correlated with visual outcome. Moreover, it also co-varies with other endogenous factors such as attention, vigilance, or alertness. In turn, these endogenous factors influence visual perception. Therefore, it remains unclear how much of the relation between alpha and perception is indirectly mediated by such endogenous factors, and how much reflects a direct causal influence of alpha rhythms on sensory neural processing. We propose to disentangle the direct from the indirect causal routes by introducing modulations of alpha power, independently of any fluctuations in endogenous factors. To this end, we use white-noise sequences to constrain the brain activity of 20 participants. The cross-correlation between the white-noise sequences and the concurrently recorded EEG reveals the impulse response function (IRF), a model of the systematic relationship between stimulation and brain response. These IRFs are then used to reconstruct rather than record the brain activity linked with new random sequences (by convolution). Interestingly, this reconstructed EEG only contains information about oscillations directly linked to the white-noise stimulation; fluctuations in attention and other endogenous factors may still modulate brain alpha rhythms during the task, but our reconstructed EEG is immune to these factors. We found that the detection of near-perceptual threshold targets embedded within these new white-noise sequences depended on the power of the ~10 Hz reconstructed EEG over parieto-occipital channels. Around the time of presentation, higher power led to poorer performance. Thus, fluctuations in alpha power, induced here by random luminance sequences, can directly influence perception: the relation between alpha power and perception is not a mere consequence of fluctuations in endogenous factors.

Deontic introduction: A theory of inference from is to ought.

PubMed

Elqayam, Shira; Thompson, Valerie A; Wilkinson, Meredith R; Evans, Jonathan St B T; Over, David E

2015-09-01

Humans have a unique ability to generate novel norms. Faced with the knowledge that there are hungry children in Somalia, we easily and naturally infer that we ought to donate to famine relief charities. Although a contentious and lively issue in metaethics, such inference from "is" to "ought" has not been systematically studied in the psychology of reasoning. We propose that deontic introduction is the result of a rich chain of pragmatic inference, most of it implicit; specifically, when an action is causally linked to a valenced goal, valence transfers to the action and bridges into a deontic conclusion. Participants in 5 experiments were presented with utility conditionals in which an action results in a benefit, a cost, or neutral outcome (e.g., "If Lisa buys the booklet, she will pass the exam") and asked to evaluate how strongly deontic conclusions (e.g., "Lisa should buy the booklet") follow from the premises. Findings show that the direction of the conclusions was determined by outcome valence (Experiments 1a and 1b), whereas their strength was determined by the strength of the causal link between action and outcome (Experiments 1, 2a, and 2b). We also found that deontic introduction is defeasible and can be suppressed by additional premises that interfere with any of the links in the implicit chain of inference (Experiments 2a, 2b, and 3). We propose that deontic introduction is a species-specific generative capacity whose function is to regulate future behavior. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Robust, Causal, and Incremental Approaches to Investigating Linguistic Adaptation

PubMed Central

Roberts, Seán G.

2018-01-01

This paper discusses the maximum robustness approach for studying cases of adaptation in language. We live in an age where we have more data on more languages than ever before, and more data to link it with from other domains. This should make it easier to test hypotheses involving adaptation, and also to spot new patterns that might be explained by adaptation. However, there is not much discussion of the overall approach to research in this area. There are outstanding questions about how to formalize theories, what the criteria are for directing research and how to integrate results from different methods into a clear assessment of a hypothesis. This paper addresses some of those issues by suggesting an approach which is causal, incremental and robust. It illustrates the approach with reference to a recent claim that dry environments select against the use of precise contrasts in pitch. Study 1 replicates a previous analysis of the link between humidity and lexical tone with an alternative dataset and finds that it is not robust. Study 2 performs an analysis with a continuous measure of tone and finds no significant correlation. Study 3 addresses a more recent analysis of the link between humidity and vowel use and finds that it is robust, though the effect size is small and the robustness of the measurement of vowel use is low. Methodological robustness of the general theory is addressed by suggesting additional approaches including iterated learning, a historical case study, corpus studies, and studying individual speech. PMID:29515487

The mutual causality analysis between the stock and futures markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Can-Zhong; Lin, Qing-Wen

2017-07-01

In this paper we employ the conditional Granger causality model to estimate the information flow, and find that the improved model outperforms the Granger causality model in revealing the asymmetric correlation between stocks and futures in the Chinese market. First, we find that information flows estimated by Granger causality tests from futures to stocks are greater than those from stocks to futures. Additionally, average correlation coefficients capture some important characteristics between stock prices and information flows over time. Further, we find that direct information flows estimated by conditional Granger causality tests from stocks to futures are greater than those from futures to stocks. Besides, the substantial increases of information flows and direct information flows exhibit a certain degree of synchronism with the occurrences of important events. Finally, the comparative analysis with the asymmetric ratio and the bootstrap technique demonstrates the slight asymmetry of information flows and the significant asymmetry of direct information flows. It reveals that the information flows from futures to stocks are slightly greater than those in the reverse direction, while the direct information flows from stocks to futures are significantly greater than those in the reverse direction.

Causal inference in nonlinear systems: Granger causality versus time-delayed mutual information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Songting; Xiao, Yanyang; Zhou, Douglas; Cai, David

2018-05-01

The Granger causality (GC) analysis has been extensively applied to infer causal interactions in dynamical systems arising from economy and finance, physics, bioinformatics, neuroscience, social science, and many other fields. In the presence of potential nonlinearity in these systems, the validity of the GC analysis in general is questionable. To illustrate this, here we first construct minimal nonlinear systems and show that the GC analysis fails to infer causal relations in these systems—it gives rise to all types of incorrect causal directions. In contrast, we show that the time-delayed mutual information (TDMI) analysis is able to successfully identify the direction of interactions underlying these nonlinear systems. We then apply both methods to neuroscience data collected from experiments and demonstrate that the TDMI analysis but not the GC analysis can identify the direction of interactions among neuronal signals. Our work exemplifies inference hazards in the GC analysis in nonlinear systems and suggests that the TDMI analysis can be an appropriate tool in such a case.

Type I interferon causes thrombotic microangiopathy by a dose-dependent toxic effect on the microvasculature

PubMed Central

Kavanagh, David; Jury, Alexa; Williams, Jac; Scolding, Neil; Bellamy, Chris; Gunther, Claudia; Ritchie, Diane; Gale, Daniel P.; Kanwar, Yashpal S.; Challis, Rachel; Buist, Holly; Overell, James; Weller, Belinda; Flossmann, Oliver; Blunden, Mark; Meyer, Eric P.; Krucker, Thomas; Evans, Stephen J. W.; Campbell, Iain L.; Jackson, Andrew P.; Chandran, Siddharthan

2016-01-01

Many drugs have been reported to cause thrombotic microangiopathy (TMA), yet evidence supporting a direct association is often weak. In particular, TMA has been reported in association with recombinant type I interferon (IFN) therapies, with recent concern regarding the use of IFN in multiple sclerosis patients. However, a causal association has yet to be demonstrated. Here, we adopt a combined clinical and experimental approach to provide evidence of such an association between type I IFN and TMA. We show that the clinical phenotype of cases referred to a national center is uniformly consistent with a direct dose-dependent drug-induced TMA. We then show that dose-dependent microvascular disease is seen in a transgenic mouse model of IFN toxicity. This includes specific microvascular pathological changes seen in patient biopsies and is dependent on transcriptional activation of the IFN response through the type I interferon α/β receptor (IFNAR). Together our clinical and experimental findings provide evidence of a causal link between type I IFN and TMA. As such, recombinant type I IFN therapies should be stopped at the earliest stage in patients who develop this complication, with implications for risk mitigation. PMID:27663672

Identifying direct miRNA-mRNA causal regulatory relationships in heterogeneous data.

PubMed

Zhang, Junpeng; Le, Thuc Duy; Liu, Lin; Liu, Bing; He, Jianfeng; Goodall, Gregory J; Li, Jiuyong

2014-12-01

Discovering the regulatory relationships between microRNAs (miRNAs) and mRNAs is an important problem that interests many biologists and medical researchers. A number of computational methods have been proposed to infer miRNA-mRNA regulatory relationships, and are mostly based on the statistical associations between miRNAs and mRNAs discovered in observational data. The miRNA-mRNA regulatory relationships identified by these methods can be both direct and indirect regulations. However, differentiating direct regulatory relationships from indirect ones is important for biologists in experimental designs. In this paper, we present a causal discovery based framework (called DirectTarget) to infer direct miRNA-mRNA causal regulatory relationships in heterogeneous data, including expression profiles of miRNAs and mRNAs, and miRNA target information. DirectTarget is applied to the Epithelial to Mesenchymal Transition (EMT) datasets. The validation by experimentally confirmed target databases suggests that the proposed method can effectively identify direct miRNA-mRNA regulatory relationships. To explore the upstream regulators of miRNA regulation, we further identify the causal feedforward patterns (CFFPs) of TF-miRNA-mRNA to provide insights into the miRNA regulation in EMT. DirectTarget has the potential to be applied to other datasets to elucidate the direct miRNA-mRNA causal regulatory relationships and to explore the regulatory patterns. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Knowledge Representation Standards and Interchange Formats for Causal Graphs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Throop, David R.; Malin, Jane T.; Fleming, Land

2005-01-01

In many domains, automated reasoning tools must represent graphs of causally linked events. These include fault-tree analysis, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), planning, procedures, medical reasoning about disease progression, and functional architectures. Each of these fields has its own requirements for the representation of causation, events, actors and conditions. The representations include ontologies of function and cause, data dictionaries for causal dependency, failure and hazard, and interchange formats between some existing tools. In none of the domains has a generally accepted interchange format emerged. The paper makes progress towards interoperability across the wide range of causal analysis methodologies. We survey existing practice and emerging interchange formats in each of these fields. Setting forth a set of terms and concepts that are broadly shared across the domains, we examine the several ways in which current practice represents them. Some phenomena are difficult to represent or to analyze in several domains. These include mode transitions, reachability analysis, positive and negative feedback loops, conditions correlated but not causally linked and bimodal probability distributions. We work through examples and contrast the differing methods for addressing them. We detail recent work in knowledge interchange formats for causal trees in aerospace analysis applications in early design, safety and reliability. Several examples are discussed, with a particular focus on reachability analysis and mode transitions. We generalize the aerospace analysis work across the several other domains. We also recommend features and capabilities for the next generation of causal knowledge representation standards.

Can We Define and Characterize the Aging Lower Urinary Tract?—ICI-RS 2015

PubMed Central

Vahabi, Bahareh; Wagg, Adrian S.; Rosier, Peter F.W.M.; Rademakers, Kevin L.J.; Denys, Marie-Astrid; Pontari, Michel; Lovick, Thelma; Valentini, Francoise A.; Nelson, Pierre P.; Andersson, Karl-Erik; Fry, Christopher H.

2017-01-01

The prevalence of lower urinary tract (LUT) symptoms increases with age but the etiology is unknown. This article aims to identify research directions that clarify the basis of this association. The initial question is whether biological age is the variable of interest or a time-dependent accumulation of factors that impact on LUT function at rates that differ between individuals. In particular, the accumulation of conditions or agents due to inflammatory states or tissue ischemia is important. Much of the above has been concerned with changes to bladder function and morphology. However, the outflow tract function is also affected, in particular changes to the function of external sphincter skeletal muscle and associated sacral motor nerve control. Nocturia is a cardinal symptom of LUT dysfunction and is more prevalent with aging. Urine production is determined by diurnal changes to the production of certain hormones as well as arterial blood pressure and such diurnal rhythms are blunted in subjects with nocturia, but the causal links remain to be elucidated. Changes to the central nervous control of LUT function with age are also increasingly recognized, whether in mid-brain/ brainstem regions that directly affect LUT function or in higher centers that determine psychosocial and emotional factors impinging on the LUT. In particular, the linkage between increasing white matter hyperintensities and LUT dysfunction during aging is recognized but not understood. Overall, a more rational approach is being developed to link LUT dysfunction with factors that accumulate with age, however, the precise causal pathways remain to be characterized. PMID:28444710

The coevolution of innovation and technical intelligence in primates

PubMed Central

Street, Sally E.; Whalen, Andrew; Laland, Kevin N.

2016-01-01

In birds and primates, the frequency of behavioural innovation has been shown to covary with absolute and relative brain size, leading to the suggestion that large brains allow animals to innovate, and/or that selection for innovativeness, together with social learning, may have driven brain enlargement. We examined the relationship between primate brain size and both technical (i.e. tool using) and non-technical innovation, deploying a combination of phylogenetically informed regression and exploratory causal graph analyses. Regression analyses revealed that absolute and relative brain size correlated positively with technical innovation, and exhibited consistently weaker, but still positive, relationships with non-technical innovation. These findings mirror similar results in birds. Our exploratory causal graph analyses suggested that technical innovation shares strong direct relationships with brain size, body size, social learning rate and social group size, whereas non-technical innovation did not exhibit a direct relationship with brain size. Nonetheless, non-technical innovation was linked to brain size indirectly via diet and life-history variables. Our findings support ‘technical intelligence’ hypotheses in linking technical innovation to encephalization in the restricted set of primate lineages where technical innovation has been reported. Our findings also provide support for a broad co-evolving complex of brain, behaviour, life-history, social and dietary variables, providing secondary support for social and ecological intelligence hypotheses. The ability to gain access to difficult-to-extract, but potentially nutrient-rich, resources through tool use may have conferred on some primates adaptive advantages, leading to selection for brain circuitry that underlies technical proficiency. PMID:26926276

The coevolution of innovation and technical intelligence in primates.

PubMed

Navarrete, Ana F; Reader, Simon M; Street, Sally E; Whalen, Andrew; Laland, Kevin N

2016-03-19

In birds and primates, the frequency of behavioural innovation has been shown to covary with absolute and relative brain size, leading to the suggestion that large brains allow animals to innovate, and/or that selection for innovativeness, together with social learning, may have driven brain enlargement. We examined the relationship between primate brain size and both technical (i.e. tool using) and non-technical innovation, deploying a combination of phylogenetically informed regression and exploratory causal graph analyses. Regression analyses revealed that absolute and relative brain size correlated positively with technical innovation, and exhibited consistently weaker, but still positive, relationships with non-technical innovation. These findings mirror similar results in birds. Our exploratory causal graph analyses suggested that technical innovation shares strong direct relationships with brain size, body size, social learning rate and social group size, whereas non-technical innovation did not exhibit a direct relationship with brain size. Nonetheless, non-technical innovation was linked to brain size indirectly via diet and life-history variables. Our findings support 'technical intelligence' hypotheses in linking technical innovation to encephalization in the restricted set of primate lineages where technical innovation has been reported. Our findings also provide support for a broad co-evolving complex of brain, behaviour, life-history, social and dietary variables, providing secondary support for social and ecological intelligence hypotheses. The ability to gain access to difficult-to-extract, but potentially nutrient-rich, resources through tool use may have conferred on some primates adaptive advantages, leading to selection for brain circuitry that underlies technical proficiency. © 2016 The Author(s).

A Theory of Motivation for Some Classroom Experiences.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weiner, Bernard

1979-01-01

A theory of motivation based upon attributions of causality for success and failure is offered. Three central causal dimensions are identified: stability, locus, and control; these dimensions, respectively, are linked with expectancy change, esteem-related emotions, and interpersonal judgments. A theory of motivation with implications for…

Non-nutrient causes of low-grade, systemic inflammation: support for a 'canary in the mineshaft' view of obesity in chronic disease.

PubMed

Egger, G; Dixon, J

2011-05-01

A form of low-grade, systemic inflammation ('metaflammation') is linked to many types of chronic disease. Initially, this was thought to be causally related to weight gain and obesity and a possible explanation of the link between obesity and disease. However, several lifestyle-related inducers of such inflammation, some of which are associated with obesity, but some of which are not, have now been identified. The most common of these have been nutritive related, suggesting that there could still be a relationship, either directly or indirectly, with obesity. Here we provide evidence for non-nutritive inflammatory inducers, providing further support for an earlier suggestion that while obesity, beyond a point, may have a direct link with disease, this may be neither necessary nor sufficient to explain the current epidemic of chronic disease. A more ubiquitous cause encompassing all inflammatory inducers is the modern, post-industrial environment and lifestyles emanating from this. Obesity may thus be more of 'a canary in the mineshaft', warning of bigger global problems, than just a single pathway to modern environmentally driven disease. © 2010 The Authors. obesity reviews © 2010 International Association for the Study of Obesity.

Diabetes and mitochondrial function: Role of hyperglycemia and oxidative stress

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rolo, Anabela P.; Palmeira, Carlos M.

2006-04-15

Hyperglycemia resulting from uncontrolled glucose regulation is widely recognized as the causal link between diabetes and diabetic complications. Four major molecular mechanisms have been implicated in hyperglycemia-induced tissue damage: activation of protein kinase C (PKC) isoforms via de novo synthesis of the lipid second messenger diacylglycerol (DAG), increased hexosamine pathway flux, increased advanced glycation end product (AGE) formation, and increased polyol pathway flux. Hyperglycemia-induced overproduction of superoxide is the causal link between high glucose and the pathways responsible for hyperglycemic damage. In fact, diabetes is typically accompanied by increased production of free radicals and/or impaired antioxidant defense capabilities, indicating amore » central contribution for reactive oxygen species (ROS) in the onset, progression, and pathological consequences of diabetes. Besides oxidative stress, a growing body of evidence has demonstrated a link between various disturbances in mitochondrial functioning and type 2 diabetes. Mutations in mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) and decreases in mtDNA copy number have been linked to the pathogenesis of type 2 diabetes. The study of the relationship of mtDNA to type 2 diabetes has revealed the influence of the mitochondria on nuclear-encoded glucose transporters, glucose-stimulated insulin secretion, and nuclear-encoded uncoupling proteins (UCPs) in {beta}-cell glucose toxicity. This review focuses on a range of mitochondrial factors important in the pathogenesis of diabetes. We review the published literature regarding the direct effects of hyperglycemia on mitochondrial function and suggest the possibility of regulation of mitochondrial function at a transcriptional level in response to hyperglycemia. The main goal of this review is to include a fresh consideration of pathways involved in hyperglycemia-induced diabetic complications.« less

Assessing the causal role of adiposity on disordered eating in childhood, adolescence, and adulthood: a Mendelian randomization analysis

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Background: Observational studies have shown that higher body mass index (BMI) is associated with increased risk of developing disordered eating patterns. However, the causal direction of this relation remains ambiguous. Objective: We used Mendelian randomization (MR) to infer the direction of causality between BMI and disordered eating in childhood, adolescence, and adulthood. Design: MR analyses were conducted with a genetic score as an instrumental variable for BMI to assess the causal effect of BMI at age 7 y on disordered eating patterns at age 13 y with the use of data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) (n = 4473). To examine causality in the reverse direction, MR analyses were used to estimate the effect of the same disordered eating patterns at age 13 y on BMI at age 17 y via a split-sample approach in the ALSPAC. We also investigated the causal direction of the association between BMI and eating disorders (EDs) in adults via a two-sample MR approach and publically available genome-wide association study data. Results: MR results indicated that higher BMI at age 7 y likely causes higher levels of binge eating and overeating, weight and shape concerns, and weight-control behavior patterns in both males and females and food restriction in males at age 13 y. Furthermore, results suggested that higher levels of binge eating and overeating in males at age 13 y likely cause higher BMI at age 17 y. We showed no evidence of causality between BMI and EDs in adulthood in either direction. Conclusions: This study provides evidence to suggest a causal effect of higher BMI in childhood and increased risk of disordered eating at age 13 y. Furthermore, higher levels of binge eating and overeating may cause higher BMI in later life. These results encourage an exploration of the ways to break the causal chain between these complex phenotypes, which could inform and prevent disordered eating problems in adolescence. PMID:28747331

Assessing the causal role of adiposity on disordered eating in childhood, adolescence, and adulthood: a Mendelian randomization analysis.

PubMed

Reed, Zoe E; Micali, Nadia; Bulik, Cynthia M; Davey Smith, George; Wade, Kaitlin H

2017-09-01

Background: Observational studies have shown that higher body mass index (BMI) is associated with increased risk of developing disordered eating patterns. However, the causal direction of this relation remains ambiguous. Objective: We used Mendelian randomization (MR) to infer the direction of causality between BMI and disordered eating in childhood, adolescence, and adulthood. Design: MR analyses were conducted with a genetic score as an instrumental variable for BMI to assess the causal effect of BMI at age 7 y on disordered eating patterns at age 13 y with the use of data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) ( n = 4473). To examine causality in the reverse direction, MR analyses were used to estimate the effect of the same disordered eating patterns at age 13 y on BMI at age 17 y via a split-sample approach in the ALSPAC. We also investigated the causal direction of the association between BMI and eating disorders (EDs) in adults via a two-sample MR approach and publically available genome-wide association study data. Results: MR results indicated that higher BMI at age 7 y likely causes higher levels of binge eating and overeating, weight and shape concerns, and weight-control behavior patterns in both males and females and food restriction in males at age 13 y. Furthermore, results suggested that higher levels of binge eating and overeating in males at age 13 y likely cause higher BMI at age 17 y. We showed no evidence of causality between BMI and EDs in adulthood in either direction. Conclusions: This study provides evidence to suggest a causal effect of higher BMI in childhood and increased risk of disordered eating at age 13 y. Furthermore, higher levels of binge eating and overeating may cause higher BMI in later life. These results encourage an exploration of the ways to break the causal chain between these complex phenotypes, which could inform and prevent disordered eating problems in adolescence.

Probable Cause: A Decision Making Framework.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-08-01

Thus, a biochemist may see the causal link between smoking and lung cancer as due to chemical effects of tar, nicotine , and the like, on cell structure...long term and complex effects like poverty can have short term and simple causes. Determinants of Gros Strength Causal chains. While the causal...explained is a standing state. For example, what is the cause of " poverty ?" Since the effect to be explained in a standing state of large duration and

Intimate Relationships and Depression: Is There a Causal Connection?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burns, David D.; And Others

1994-01-01

Estimated causal pathways that link depression and dissatisfaction in intimate relationships in 115 depressed patients during first 12 weeks of treatment. Depression severity, as measured by Beck Depression Inventory, was negatively correlated with relationship satisfaction at intake and at 12 weeks. Structural equation modeling was not consistent…

Linking hard and soft traits: Physiology, morphology and anatomy interact to determine habitat affinities to soil water availability in herbaceous dicots.

PubMed

Belluau, Michaël; Shipley, Bill

2018-01-01

Species' habitat affinities along environmental gradients should be determined by a combination of physiological (hard) and morpho-anatomical (soft) traits. Using a gradient of soil water availability, we address three questions: How well can we predict habitat affinities from hard traits, from soft traits, and from a combination of the two? How well can we predict species' physiological responses to drought (hard traits) from their soft traits? Can we model a causal sequence as soft traits → hard traits → species distributions? We chose 25 species of herbaceous dicots whose affinities for soil moisture have already been linked to 5 physiological traits (stomatal conductance and net photosynthesis measured at soil field capacity, water use efficiency, stomatal conductance and soil water potential measured when leaves begin to wilt). Under controlled conditions in soils at field capacity, we measured five soft traits (leaf dry matter content, specific leaf area, leaf nitrogen content, stomatal area, specific root length). Soft traits alone were poor predictors (R2 = 0.129) while hard traits explained 48% of species habitat affinities. Moreover, hard traits were significantly related to combinations of soft traits. From a priori biological knowledge and hypothesized ecological links we built a path model showing a sequential pattern soft traits → hard traits → species distributions and accounting for 59.6% (p = 0.782) of habitat wetness. Both direct and indirect causal relationships existed between soft traits, hard traits and species' habitat preferences. The poor predictive abilities of soft traits alone were due to the existence of antagonistic and synergistic direct and indirect effects of soft traits on habitat preferences mediated by the hard traits. To obtain a more realistic model applicable to a population level, it has to be tested in an experiment including species competition for water supply.

Medial-Frontal Stimulation Enhances Learning in Schizophrenia by Restoring Prediction Error Signaling.

PubMed

Reinhart, Robert M G; Zhu, Julia; Park, Sohee; Woodman, Geoffrey F

2015-09-02

Posterror learning, associated with medial-frontal cortical recruitment in healthy subjects, is compromised in neuropsychiatric disorders. Here we report novel evidence for the mechanisms underlying learning dysfunctions in schizophrenia. We show that, by noninvasively passing direct current through human medial-frontal cortex, we could enhance the event-related potential related to learning from mistakes (i.e., the error-related negativity), a putative index of prediction error signaling in the brain. Following this causal manipulation of brain activity, the patients learned a new task at a rate that was indistinguishable from healthy individuals. Moreover, the severity of delusions interacted with the efficacy of the stimulation to improve learning. Our results demonstrate a causal link between disrupted prediction error signaling and inefficient learning in schizophrenia. These findings also demonstrate the feasibility of nonpharmacological interventions to address cognitive deficits in neuropsychiatric disorders. When there is a difference between what we expect to happen and what we actually experience, our brains generate a prediction error signal, so that we can map stimuli to responses and predict outcomes accurately. Theories of schizophrenia implicate abnormal prediction error signaling in the cognitive deficits of the disorder. Here, we combine noninvasive brain stimulation with large-scale electrophysiological recordings to establish a causal link between faulty prediction error signaling and learning deficits in schizophrenia. We show that it is possible to improve learning rate, as well as the neural signature of prediction error signaling, in patients to a level quantitatively indistinguishable from that of healthy subjects. The results provide mechanistic insight into schizophrenia pathophysiology and suggest a future therapy for this condition. Copyright © 2015 the authors 0270-6474/15/3512232-09$15.00/0.

Spatial Autocorrelation Can Generate Stronger Correlations between Range Size and Climatic Niches Than the Biological Signal - A Demonstration Using Bird and Mammal Range Maps.

PubMed

Boucher-Lalonde, Véronique; Currie, David J

2016-01-01

Species' geographic ranges could primarily be physiological tolerances drawn in space. Alternatively, geographic ranges could be only broadly constrained by physiological climatic tolerances: there could generally be much more proximate constraints on species' ranges (dispersal limitation, biotic interactions, etc.) such that species often occupy a small and unpredictable subset of tolerable climates. In the literature, species' climatic tolerances are typically estimated from the set of conditions observed within their geographic range. Using this method, studies have concluded that broader climatic niches permit larger ranges. Similarly, other studies have investigated the biological causes of incomplete range filling. But, when climatic constraints are measured directly from species' ranges, are correlations between species' range size and climate necessarily consistent with a causal link? We evaluated the extent to which variation in range size among 3277 bird and 1659 mammal species occurring in the Americas is statistically related to characteristics of species' realized climatic niches. We then compared how these relationships differed from the ones expected in the absence of a causal link. We used a null model that randomizes the predictor variables (climate), while retaining their broad spatial autocorrelation structure, thereby removing any causal relationship between range size and climate. We found that, although range size is strongly positively related to climatic niche breadth, range filling and, to a lesser extent, niche position in nature, the observed relationships are not always stronger than expected from spatial autocorrelation alone. Thus, we conclude that equally strong relationships between range size and climate would result from any processes causing ranges to be highly spatially autocorrelated.

Spatial Autocorrelation Can Generate Stronger Correlations between Range Size and Climatic Niches Than the Biological Signal — A Demonstration Using Bird and Mammal Range Maps

PubMed Central

Boucher-Lalonde, Véronique; Currie, David J.

2016-01-01

Species’ geographic ranges could primarily be physiological tolerances drawn in space. Alternatively, geographic ranges could be only broadly constrained by physiological climatic tolerances: there could generally be much more proximate constraints on species’ ranges (dispersal limitation, biotic interactions, etc.) such that species often occupy a small and unpredictable subset of tolerable climates. In the literature, species’ climatic tolerances are typically estimated from the set of conditions observed within their geographic range. Using this method, studies have concluded that broader climatic niches permit larger ranges. Similarly, other studies have investigated the biological causes of incomplete range filling. But, when climatic constraints are measured directly from species’ ranges, are correlations between species’ range size and climate necessarily consistent with a causal link? We evaluated the extent to which variation in range size among 3277 bird and 1659 mammal species occurring in the Americas is statistically related to characteristics of species’ realized climatic niches. We then compared how these relationships differed from the ones expected in the absence of a causal link. We used a null model that randomizes the predictor variables (climate), while retaining their broad spatial autocorrelation structure, thereby removing any causal relationship between range size and climate. We found that, although range size is strongly positively related to climatic niche breadth, range filling and, to a lesser extent, niche position in nature, the observed relationships are not always stronger than expected from spatial autocorrelation alone. Thus, we conclude that equally strong relationships between range size and climate would result from any processes causing ranges to be highly spatially autocorrelated. PMID:27855201

Extensin network formation in Vitis vinifera callus cells is an essential and causal event in rapid and H2O2-induced reduction in primary cell wall hydration

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Extensin deposition is considered important for the correct assembly and biophysical properties of primary cell walls, with consequences to plant resistance to pathogens, tissue morphology, cell adhesion and extension growth. However, evidence for a direct and causal role for the extensin network formation in changes to cell wall properties has been lacking. Results Hydrogen peroxide treatment of grapevine (Vitis vinifera cv. Touriga) callus cell walls was seen to induce a marked reduction in their hydration and thickness. An analysis of matrix proteins demonstrated this occurs with the insolubilisation of an abundant protein, GvP1, which displays a primary structure and post-translational modifications typical of dicotyledon extensins. The hydration of callus cell walls free from saline-soluble proteins did not change in response to H2O2, but fully regained this capacity after addition of extensin-rich saline extracts. To assay the specific contribution of GvP1 cross-linking and other wall matrix proteins to the reduction in hydration, GvP1 levels in cell walls were manipulated in vitro by binding selected fractions of extracellular proteins and their effect on wall hydration during H2O2 incubation assayed. Conclusions This approach allowed us to conclude that a peroxidase-mediated formation of a covalently linked network of GvP1 is essential and causal in the reduction of grapevine callus wall hydration in response to H2O2. Importantly, this approach also indicated that extensin network effects on hydration was only partially irreversible and remained sensitive to changes in matrix charge. We discuss this mechanism and the importance of these changes to primary wall properties in the light of extensin distribution in dicotyledons. PMID:21672244

Environmental conditions and Puumala virus transmission in Belgium

PubMed Central

Linard, Catherine; Tersago, Katrien; Leirs, Herwig; Lambin, Eric F

2007-01-01

Background Non-vector-borne zoonoses such as Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) can be transmitted directly, by physical contact between infected and susceptible hosts, or indirectly, with the environment as an intermediate. The objective of this study is to better understand the causal link between environmental features and PUUV prevalence in bank vole population in Belgium, and hence with transmission risk to humans. Our hypothesis was that environmental conditions controlling the direct and indirect transmission paths differ, such that the risk of transmission to humans is not only determined by host abundance. We explored the relationship between, on one hand, environmental variables and, on the other hand, host abundance, PUUV prevalence in the host, and human cases of nephropathia epidemica (NE). Statistical analyses were carried out on 17 field sites situated in Belgian broadleaf forests. Results Linear regressions showed that landscape attributes, particularly landscape configuration, influence the abundance of hosts in broadleaf forests. Based on logistic regressions, we show that PUUV prevalence among bank voles is more linked to variables favouring the survival of the virus in the environment, and thus the indirect transmission: low winter temperatures are strongly linked to prevalence among bank voles, and high soil moisture is linked to the number of NE cases among humans. The transmission risk to humans therefore depends on the efficiency of the indirect transmission path. Human risk behaviours, such as the propensity for people to go in forest areas that best support the virus, also influence the number of human cases. Conclusion The transmission risk to humans of non-vector-borne zoonoses such as PUUV depends on a combination of various environmental factors. To understand the complex causal pathways between the environment and disease risk, one should distinguish between environmental factors related to the abundance of hosts such as land-surface attributes, landscape configuration, and climate – i.e., host ecology, – and environmental factors related to PUUV prevalence, mainly winter temperatures and soil moisture – i.e., virus ecology. Beyond a threshold abundance of hosts, environmental factors favouring the indirect transmission path (soil and climate) can better predict the number of NE cases among humans than factors influencing the abundance of hosts. PMID:18078526

Effective connectivity: Influence, causality and biophysical modeling

PubMed Central

Valdes-Sosa, Pedro A.; Roebroeck, Alard; Daunizeau, Jean; Friston, Karl

2011-01-01

This is the final paper in a Comments and Controversies series dedicated to “The identification of interacting networks in the brain using fMRI: Model selection, causality and deconvolution”. We argue that discovering effective connectivity depends critically on state-space models with biophysically informed observation and state equations. These models have to be endowed with priors on unknown parameters and afford checks for model Identifiability. We consider the similarities and differences among Dynamic Causal Modeling, Granger Causal Modeling and other approaches. We establish links between past and current statistical causal modeling, in terms of Bayesian dependency graphs and Wiener–Akaike–Granger–Schweder influence measures. We show that some of the challenges faced in this field have promising solutions and speculate on future developments. PMID:21477655

Perceived Causalities of Physical Events Are Influenced by Social Cues

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhou, Jifan; Huang, Xiang; Jin, Xinyi; Liang, Junying; Shui, Rende; Shen, Mowei

2012-01-01

In simple mechanical events, we can directly perceive causal interactions of the physical objects. Physical cues (especially spatiotemporal features of the display) are found to associate with causal perception. Here, we demonstrate that cues of a completely different domain--"social cues"--also impact the causal perception of…

Comparison of causality analysis on simultaneously measured fMRI and NIRS signals during motor tasks.

PubMed

Anwar, Abdul Rauf; Muthalib, Makii; Perrey, Stephane; Galka, Andreas; Granert, Oliver; Wolff, Stephan; Deuschl, Guenther; Raethjen, Jan; Heute, Ulrich; Muthuraman, Muthuraman

2013-01-01

Brain activity can be measured using different modalities. Since most of the modalities tend to complement each other, it seems promising to measure them simultaneously. In to be presented research, the data recorded from Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) and Near Infrared Spectroscopy (NIRS), simultaneously, are subjected to causality analysis using time-resolved partial directed coherence (tPDC). Time-resolved partial directed coherence uses the principle of state space modelling to estimate Multivariate Autoregressive (MVAR) coefficients. This method is useful to visualize both frequency and time dynamics of causality between the time series. Afterwards, causality results from different modalities are compared by estimating the Spearman correlation. In to be presented study, we used directionality vectors to analyze correlation, rather than actual signal vectors. Results show that causality analysis of the fMRI correlates more closely to causality results of oxy-NIRS as compared to deoxy-NIRS in case of a finger sequencing task. However, in case of simple finger tapping, no clear difference between oxy-fMRI and deoxy-fMRI correlation is identified.

Disease Compass- a navigation system for disease knowledge based on ontology and linked data techniques.

PubMed

Kozaki, Kouji; Yamagata, Yuki; Mizoguchi, Riichiro; Imai, Takeshi; Ohe, Kazuhiko

2017-06-19

Medical ontologies are expected to contribute to the effective use of medical information resources that store considerable amount of data. In this study, we focused on disease ontology because the complicated mechanisms of diseases are related to concepts across various medical domains. The authors developed a River Flow Model (RFM) of diseases, which captures diseases as the causal chains of abnormal states. It represents causes of diseases, disease progression, and downstream consequences of diseases, which is compliant with the intuition of medical experts. In this paper, we discuss a fact repository for causal chains of disease based on the disease ontology. It could be a valuable knowledge base for advanced medical information systems. We developed the fact repository for causal chains of diseases based on our disease ontology and abnormality ontology. This section summarizes these two ontologies. It is developed as linked data so that information scientists can access it using SPARQL queries through an Resource Description Framework (RDF) model for causal chain of diseases. We designed the RDF model as an implementation of the RFM for the fact repository based on the ontological definitions of the RFM. 1554 diseases and 7080 abnormal states in six major clinical areas, which are extracted from the disease ontology, are published as linked data (RDF) with SPARQL endpoint (accessible API). Furthermore, the authors developed Disease Compass, a navigation system for disease knowledge. Disease Compass can browse the causal chains of a disease and obtain related information, including abnormal states, through two web services that provide general information from linked data, such as DBpedia, and 3D anatomical images. Disease Compass can provide a complete picture of disease-associated processes in such a way that fits with a clinician's understanding of diseases. Therefore, it supports user exploration of disease knowledge with access to pertinent information from a variety of sources.

Is there a causal link between knee loading and knee osteoarthritis progression? A systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies and randomised trials

PubMed Central

Henriksen, Marius; Creaby, Mark W; Lund, Hans; Juhl, Carsten; Christensen, Robin

2014-01-01

Objective We performed a systematic review, meta-analysis and assessed the evidence supporting a causal link between knee joint loading during walking and structural knee osteoarthritis (OA) progression. Design Systematic review, meta-analysis and application of Bradford Hill's considerations on causation. Data sources We searched MEDLINE, Scopus, AMED, CINAHL and SportsDiscus for prospective cohort studies and randomised controlled trials (RCTs) from 1950 through October 2013. Study eligibility criteria We selected cohort studies and RCTs in which estimates of knee joint loading during walking were used to predict structural knee OA progression assessed by X-ray or MRI. Data analyses Meta-analysis was performed to estimate the combined OR for structural disease progression with higher baseline loading. The likelihood of a causal link between knee joint loading and OA progression was assessed from cohort studies using the Bradford Hill guidelines to derive a 0–4 causation score based on four criteria and examined for confirmation in RCTs. Results Of the 1078 potentially eligible articles, 5 prospective cohort studies were included. The studies included a total of 452 patients relating joint loading to disease progression over 12–72 months. There were very serious limitations associated with the methodological quality of the included studies. The combined OR for disease progression was 1.90 (95% CI 0.85 to 4.25; I2=77%) for each one-unit increment in baseline knee loading. The combined causation score was 0, indicating no causal association between knee loading and knee OA progression. No RCTs were found to confirm or refute the findings from the cohort studies. Conclusions There is very limited and low-quality evidence to support for a causal link between knee joint loading during walking and structural progression of knee OA. Trial registration number CRD42012003253 PMID:25031196

Is there a causal link between knee loading and knee osteoarthritis progression? A systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies and randomised trials.

PubMed

Henriksen, Marius; Creaby, Mark W; Lund, Hans; Juhl, Carsten; Christensen, Robin

2014-07-15

We performed a systematic review, meta-analysis and assessed the evidence supporting a causal link between knee joint loading during walking and structural knee osteoarthritis (OA) progression. Systematic review, meta-analysis and application of Bradford Hill's considerations on causation. We searched MEDLINE, Scopus, AMED, CINAHL and SportsDiscus for prospective cohort studies and randomised controlled trials (RCTs) from 1950 through October 2013. We selected cohort studies and RCTs in which estimates of knee joint loading during walking were used to predict structural knee OA progression assessed by X-ray or MRI. Meta-analysis was performed to estimate the combined OR for structural disease progression with higher baseline loading. The likelihood of a causal link between knee joint loading and OA progression was assessed from cohort studies using the Bradford Hill guidelines to derive a 0-4 causation score based on four criteria and examined for confirmation in RCTs. Of the 1078 potentially eligible articles, 5 prospective cohort studies were included. The studies included a total of 452 patients relating joint loading to disease progression over 12-72 months. There were very serious limitations associated with the methodological quality of the included studies. The combined OR for disease progression was 1.90 (95% CI 0.85 to 4.25; I(2)=77%) for each one-unit increment in baseline knee loading. The combined causation score was 0, indicating no causal association between knee loading and knee OA progression. No RCTs were found to confirm or refute the findings from the cohort studies. There is very limited and low-quality evidence to support for a causal link between knee joint loading during walking and structural progression of knee OA. CRD42012003253. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Dopamine modulates egalitarian behavior in humans.

PubMed

Sáez, Ignacio; Zhu, Lusha; Set, Eric; Kayser, Andrew; Hsu, Ming

2015-03-30

Egalitarian motives form a powerful force in promoting prosocial behavior and enabling large-scale cooperation in the human species [1]. At the neural level, there is substantial, albeit correlational, evidence suggesting a link between dopamine and such behavior [2, 3]. However, important questions remain about the specific role of dopamine in setting or modulating behavioral sensitivity to prosocial concerns. Here, using a combination of pharmacological tools and economic games, we provide critical evidence for a causal involvement of dopamine in human egalitarian tendencies. Specifically, using the brain penetrant catechol-O-methyl transferase (COMT) inhibitor tolcapone [4, 5], we investigated the causal relationship between dopaminergic mechanisms and two prosocial concerns at the core of a number of widely used economic games: (1) the extent to which individuals directly value the material payoffs of others, i.e., generosity, and (2) the extent to which they are averse to differences between their own payoffs and those of others, i.e., inequity. We found that dopaminergic augmentation via COMT inhibition increased egalitarian tendencies in participants who played an extended version of the dictator game [6]. Strikingly, computational modeling of choice behavior [7] revealed that tolcapone exerted selective effects on inequity aversion, and not on other computational components such as the extent to which individuals directly value the material payoffs of others. Together, these data shed light on the causal relationship between neurochemical systems and human prosocial behavior and have potential implications for our understanding of the complex array of social impairments accompanying neuropsychiatric disorders involving dopaminergic dysregulation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dissociation between judgments and outcome-expectancy measures in covariation learning: a signal detection theory approach.

PubMed

Perales, José C; Catena, Andrés; Shanks, David R; González, José A

2005-09-01

A number of studies using trial-by-trial learning tasks have shown that judgments of covariation between a cue c and an outcome o deviate from normative metrics. Parameters based on trial-by-trial predictions were estimated from signal detection theory (SDT) in a standard causal learning task. Results showed that manipulations of P(c) when contingency (deltaP) was held constant did not affect participants' ability to predict the appearance of the outcome (d') but had a significant effect on response criterion (c) and numerical causal judgments. The association between criterion c and judgment was further demonstrated in 2 experiments in which the criterion was directly manipulated by linking payoffs to the predictive responses made by learners. In all cases, the more liberal the criterion c was, the higher judgments were. The results imply that the mechanisms underlying the elaboration of judgments and those involved in the elaboration of predictive responses are partially dissociable.

Chronic Fatigue and Personality: A Twin Study of Causal Pathways and Shared Liabilities

PubMed Central

Poeschla, Brian; Strachan, Eric; Dansie, Elizabeth; Buchwald, Dedra S.; Afari, Niloofar

2013-01-01

Background The etiology of chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS) remains unknown. Personality traits influence well-being and may play a role in CFS and unexplained chronic fatigue. Purpose To examine the association of emotional instability and extraversion with chronic fatigue and CFS in a genetically informative sample. Methods We evaluated 245 twin pairs for two definitions of chronic fatigue. They completed the Neuroticism and Extraversion subscales of the NEO-FFI. Using a co-twin control design, we examined the association between personality and chronic fatigue. Results Higher emotional instability was associated with both definitions of chronic fatigue and was confounded by shared genetics. Lower extraversion was also associated with both definitions of fatigue, but was not confounded by familial factors. Conclusions Both emotional instability and extraversion are related to chronic fatigue and CFS. Whereas emotional instability and chronic fatigue are linked by shared genetic mechanisms, the relationship with extraversion may be causal and bi-directional. PMID:23361410

The relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Malaysia: ARDL bound test approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Razali, Radzuan; Khan, Habib; Shafie, Afza; Hassan, Abdul Rahman

2016-11-01

The objective of this paper is to examine the short-run and long-run dynamic causal relationship between energy consumption and income per capita both in bivariate and multivariate framework over the period 1971-2014 in the case of Malaysia [1]. The study applies ARDL Bound test procedure for the long run co-integration and Granger causality test for investigation of causal link between the variables. The ARDL bound test confirms the existence of long run co-integration relationship between the variables. The causality test show a feed-back hypothesis between income per capita and energy consumption over the period in the case of Malaysia.

DNA adductomics to study the genotoxic effects of red meat consumption with and without added animal fat in rats.

PubMed

Hemeryck, Lieselot Y; Van Hecke, Thomas; Vossen, Els; De Smet, Stefaan; Vanhaecke, Lynn

2017-09-01

Digestion of red and processed meat has been linked to the formation of genotoxic N-nitroso compounds (NOCs) and lipid peroxidation products (LPOs) in the gut. In this study, rats were fed a meat based diet to compare the possible genotoxic effects of red vs. white meat, and the interfering role of dietary fat. To this purpose, liver, duodenum and colon DNA adductomes were analyzed with UHPLC-HRMS. The results demonstrate that the consumed meat type alters the DNA adductome; the levels of 22 different DNA adduct types significantly increased upon the consumption of beef (compared to chicken) and/or lard supplemented beef or chicken. Furthermore, the chemical constitution of the retrieved DNA adducts hint at a direct link with an increase in NOCs and LPOs upon red (and processed) meat digestion, supporting the current hypotheses on the causal link between red and processed meat consumption and the development of colorectal cancer. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Strengthening Causal Estimates for Links Between Spanking and Children's Externalizing Behavior Problems.

PubMed

Gershoff, Elizabeth T; Sattler, Kierra M P; Ansari, Arya

2018-01-01

Establishing causal links when experiments are not feasible is an important challenge for psychology researchers. The question of whether parents' spanking causes children's externalizing behavior problems poses such a challenge because randomized experiments of spanking are unethical, and correlational studies cannot rule out potential selection factors. This study used propensity score matching based on the lifetime prevalence and recent incidence of spanking in a large and nationally representative sample ( N = 12,112) as well as lagged dependent variables to get as close to causal estimates outside an experiment as possible. Whether children were spanked at the age of 5 years predicted increases in externalizing behavior problems by ages 6 and 8, even after the groups based on spanking prevalence or incidence were matched on a range of sociodemographic, family, and cultural characteristics and children's initial behavior problems. These statistically rigorous methods yield the conclusion that spanking predicts a deterioration of children's externalizing behavior over time.

Can we define and characterize the aging lower urinary tract?-ICI-RS 2015.

PubMed

Vahabi, Bahareh; Wagg, Adrian S; Rosier, Peter F W M; Rademakers, Kevin L J; Denys, Marie-Astrid; Pontari, Michel; Lovick, Thelma; Valentini, Francoise A; Nelson, Pierre P; Andersson, Karl-Erik; Fry, Christopher H

2017-04-01

The prevalence of lower urinary tract (LUT) symptoms increases with age but the etiology is unknown. This article aims to identify research directions that clarify the basis of this association. The initial question is whether biological age is the variable of interest or a time-dependent accumulation of factors that impact on LUT function at rates that differ between individuals. In particular, the accumulation of conditions or agents due to inflammatory states or tissue ischemia is important. Much of the above has been concerned with changes to bladder function and morphology. However, the outflow tract function is also affected, in particular changes to the function of external sphincter skeletal muscle and associated sacral motor nerve control. Nocturia is a cardinal symptom of LUT dysfunction and is more prevalent with aging. Urine production is determined by diurnal changes to the production of certain hormones as well as arterial blood pressure and such diurnal rhythms are blunted in subjects with nocturia, but the causal links remain to be elucidated. Changes to the central nervous control of LUT function with age are also increasingly recognized, whether in mid-brain/brainstem regions that directly affect LUT function or in higher centers that determine psycho-social and emotional factors impinging on the LUT. In particular, the linkage between increasing white matter hyperintensities and LUT dysfunction during aging is recognized but not understood. Overall, a more rational approach is being developed to link LUT dysfunction with factors that accumulate with age, however, the precise causal pathways remain to be characterized. Neurourol. Urodynam. 36:854-858, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

From In-Session Behaviors to Drinking Outcomes: A Causal Chain for Motivational Interviewing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moyers, Theresa B.; Martin, Tim; Houck, Jon M.; Christopher, Paulette J.; Tonigan, J. Scott

2009-01-01

Client speech in favor of change within motivational interviewing sessions has been linked to treatment outcomes, but a causal chain has not yet been demonstrated. Using a sequential behavioral coding system for client speech, the authors found that, at both the session and utterance levels, specific therapist behaviors predict client change talk.…

Can the inherence heuristic explain vitalistic reasoning?

PubMed

Bastian, Brock

2014-10-01

Inherence is an important component of psychological essentialism. By drawing on vitalism as a way in which to explain this link, however, the authors appear to conflate causal explanations based on fixed features with those based on general causal forces. The disjuncture between these two types of explanatory principles highlights potential new avenues for the inherence heuristic.

Are Children Really Inferior Goods? Evidence from Displacement-Driven Income Shocks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lindo, Jason M.

2010-01-01

This paper explores the causal link between income and fertility by analyzing women's fertility response to the large and permanent income shock generated by a husband's job displacement. I find that the shock reduces total fertility, suggesting that the causal effect of income on fertility is positive. A model that incorporates the time cost of…

Testing Causal Impacts of a School-Based SEL Intervention Using Instrumental Variable Techniques

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Torrente, Catalina; Nathanson, Lori; Rivers, Susan; Brackett, Marc

2015-01-01

Children's social-emotional skills, such as conflict resolution and emotion regulation, have been linked to a number of highly regarded academic and social outcomes. The current study presents preliminary results from a causal test of the theory of change of RULER, a universal school-based approach to social and emotional learning (SEL).…

Feedback Both Helps and Hinders Learning: The Causal Role of Prior Knowledge

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fyfe, Emily R.; Rittle-Johnson, Bethany

2016-01-01

Feedback can be a powerful learning tool, but its effects vary widely. Research has suggested that learners' prior knowledge may moderate the effects of feedback; however, no causal link has been established. In Experiment 1, we randomly assigned elementary school children (N = 108) to a condition based on a crossing of 2 factors: induced strategy…

A Theory of Diagnostic Inference. II. Judging Causality.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-09-01

spent on social programs in the 160s and 󈨊s could have had little or no effect or that long term and complex effects like poverty can have short term...biochemist may see the causal link between smoking and lung cancer as due to chemical effects of tar, nicotine , and the like, on cell structure, while an

Analyzing brain networks with PCA and conditional Granger causality.

PubMed

Zhou, Zhenyu; Chen, Yonghong; Ding, Mingzhou; Wright, Paul; Lu, Zuhong; Liu, Yijun

2009-07-01

Identifying directional influences in anatomical and functional circuits presents one of the greatest challenges for understanding neural computations in the brain. Granger causality mapping (GCM) derived from vector autoregressive models of data has been employed for this purpose, revealing complex temporal and spatial dynamics underlying cognitive processes. However, the traditional GCM methods are computationally expensive, as signals from thousands of voxels within selected regions of interest (ROIs) are individually processed, and being based on pairwise Granger causality, they lack the ability to distinguish direct from indirect connectivity among brain regions. In this work a new algorithm called PCA based conditional GCM is proposed to overcome these problems. The algorithm implements the following two procedures: (i) dimensionality reduction in ROIs of interest with principle component analysis (PCA), and (ii) estimation of the direct causal influences in local brain networks, using conditional Granger causality. Our results show that the proposed method achieves greater accuracy in detecting network connectivity than the commonly used pairwise Granger causality method. Furthermore, the use of PCA components in conjunction with conditional GCM greatly reduces the computational cost relative to the use of individual voxel time series. Copyright 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc

Explanatory models concerning the effects of small-area characteristics on individual health.

PubMed

Voigtländer, Sven; Vogt, Verena; Mielck, Andreas; Razum, Oliver

2014-06-01

Material and social living conditions at the small-area level are assumed to have an effect on individual health. We review existing explanatory models concerning the effects of small-area characteristics on health and describe the gaps future research should try to fill. Systematic literature search for, and analysis of, studies that propose an explanatory model of the relationship between small-area characteristics and health. Fourteen studies met our inclusion criteria. Using various theoretical approaches, almost all of the models are based on a three-tier structure linking social inequalities (posited at the macro-level), small-area characteristics (posited at the meso-level) and individual health (micro-level). No study explicitly defines the geographical borders of the small-area context. The health impact of the small-area characteristics is explained by specific pathways involving mediating factors (psychological, behavioural, biological). These pathways tend to be seen as uni-directional; often, causality is implied. They may be modified by individual factors. A number of issues need more attention in research on explanatory models concerning small-area effects on health. Among them are the (geographical) definition of the small-area context; the systematic description of pathways comprising small-area contextual as well as compositional factors; questions of direction of association and causality; and the integration of a time dimension.

Causality attribution biases oculomotor responses.

PubMed

Badler, Jeremy; Lefèvre, Philippe; Missal, Marcus

2010-08-04

When viewing one object move after being struck by another, humans perceive that the action of the first object "caused" the motion of the second, not that the two events occurred independently. Although established as a perceptual and linguistic concept, it is not yet known whether the notion of causality exists as a fundamental, preattentional "Gestalt" that can influence predictive motor processes. Therefore, eye movements of human observers were measured while viewing a display in which a launcher impacted a tool to trigger the motion of a second "reaction" target. The reaction target could move either in the direction predicted by transfer of momentum after the collision ("causal") or in a different direction ("noncausal"), with equal probability. Control trials were also performed with identical target motion, either with a 100 ms time delay between the collision and reactive motion, or without the interposed tool. Subjects made significantly more predictive movements (smooth pursuit and saccades) in the causal direction during standard trials, and smooth pursuit latencies were also shorter overall. These trends were reduced or absent in control trials. In addition, pursuit latencies in the noncausal direction were longer during standard trials than during control trials. The results show that causal context has a strong influence on predictive movements.

Solidarity.com: is there a link between offline behavior and online donations?

PubMed

Eller, Anja

2008-10-01

Solidarity websites, such as The Hunger Site, where people can donate food at no financial cost and minimal effort, have become immensely popular and effective since 1999. These new forms of philanthropy are characterized by wide participation and direct assistance and feedback. The present longitudinal, quasi-experimental study aimed to examine whether online solidarity can be predicted by offline contact with, attitudes about, and altruistic behavior tendencies towards a population in need, asylum seekers. Fifty-seven university students completed two surveys, separated by 1 year. Prior to T1, only 9% of respondents had visited solidarity websites, while at T2 47% reported clicking. Multiple regression analysis showed that T2 visits to solidarity websites were (negatively) predicted by T1 quantity of contact, and marginally, by T1 general evaluation of asylum seekers. These long-term, offline-to-online effects are intriguing, although there were no effects of offline contact quality and altruistic behavior tendencies. Future research should further investigate the causal direction between offline and online behavior and the factors that might influence the link between offline and online attitudes and behavior.

An Empirical Test of Causal Inference Between Role Perceptions, Satisfaction with Work, Performance and Organizational Level

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Szilagyi, Andrew D.

1977-01-01

Attempts to empirically verify the causal source and direction of causal influence between role ambiguity, role conflict and job satisfaction and performance for three organizational levels in a hospital environment. (Author/RK)

An Evaluation of Active Learning Causal Discovery Methods for Reverse-Engineering Local Causal Pathways of Gene Regulation

PubMed Central

Ma, Sisi; Kemmeren, Patrick; Aliferis, Constantin F.; Statnikov, Alexander

2016-01-01

Reverse-engineering of causal pathways that implicate diseases and vital cellular functions is a fundamental problem in biomedicine. Discovery of the local causal pathway of a target variable (that consists of its direct causes and direct effects) is essential for effective intervention and can facilitate accurate diagnosis and prognosis. Recent research has provided several active learning methods that can leverage passively observed high-throughput data to draft causal pathways and then refine the inferred relations with a limited number of experiments. The current study provides a comprehensive evaluation of the performance of active learning methods for local causal pathway discovery in real biological data. Specifically, 54 active learning methods/variants from 3 families of algorithms were applied for local causal pathways reconstruction of gene regulation for 5 transcription factors in S. cerevisiae. Four aspects of the methods’ performance were assessed, including adjacency discovery quality, edge orientation accuracy, complete pathway discovery quality, and experimental cost. The results of this study show that some methods provide significant performance benefits over others and therefore should be routinely used for local causal pathway discovery tasks. This study also demonstrates the feasibility of local causal pathway reconstruction in real biological systems with significant quality and low experimental cost. PMID:26939894

Rigor, vigor, and the study of health disparities

PubMed Central

Adler, Nancy; Bush, Nicole R.; Pantell, Matthew S.

2012-01-01

Health disparities research spans multiple fields and methods and documents strong links between social disadvantage and poor health. Associations between socioeconomic status (SES) and health are often taken as evidence for the causal impact of SES on health, but alternative explanations, including the impact of health on SES, are plausible. Studies showing the influence of parents’ SES on their children’s health provide evidence for a causal pathway from SES to health, but have limitations. Health disparities researchers face tradeoffs between “rigor” and “vigor” in designing studies that demonstrate how social disadvantage becomes biologically embedded and results in poorer health. Rigorous designs aim to maximize precision in the measurement of SES and health outcomes through methods that provide the greatest control over temporal ordering and causal direction. To achieve precision, many studies use a single SES predictor and single disease. However, doing so oversimplifies the multifaceted, entwined nature of social disadvantage and may overestimate the impact of that one variable and underestimate the true impact of social disadvantage on health. In addition, SES effects on overall health and functioning are likely to be greater than effects on any one disease. Vigorous designs aim to capture this complexity and maximize ecological validity through more complete assessment of social disadvantage and health status, but may provide less-compelling evidence of causality. Newer approaches to both measurement and analysis may enable enhanced vigor as well as rigor. Incorporating both rigor and vigor into studies will provide a fuller understanding of the causes of health disparities. PMID:23045672

A pre-crisis vs. crisis analysis of peripheral EU stock markets by means of wavelet transform and a nonlinear causality test

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polanco-Martínez, J. M.; Fernández-Macho, J.; Neumann, M. B.; Faria, S. H.

2018-01-01

This paper presents an analysis of EU peripheral (so-called PIIGS) stock market indices and the S&P Europe 350 index (SPEURO), as a European benchmark market, over the pre-crisis (2004-2007) and crisis (2008-2011) periods. We computed a rolling-window wavelet correlation for the market returns and applied a non-linear Granger causality test to the wavelet decomposition coefficients of these stock market returns. Our results show that the correlation is stronger for the crisis than for the pre-crisis period. The stock market indices from Portugal, Italy and Spain were more interconnected among themselves during the crisis than with the SPEURO. The stock market from Portugal is the most sensitive and vulnerable PIIGS member, whereas the stock market from Greece tends to move away from the European benchmark market since the 2008 financial crisis till 2011. The non-linear causality test indicates that in the first three wavelet scales (intraweek, weekly and fortnightly) the number of uni-directional and bi-directional causalities is greater during the crisis than in the pre-crisis period, because of financial contagion. Furthermore, the causality analysis shows that the direction of the Granger cause-effect for the pre-crisis and crisis periods is not invariant in the considered time-scales, and that the causality directions among the studied stock markets do not seem to have a preferential direction. These results are relevant to better understand the behaviour of vulnerable stock markets, especially for investors and policymakers.

Causal learning with local computations.

PubMed

Fernbach, Philip M; Sloman, Steven A

2009-05-01

The authors proposed and tested a psychological theory of causal structure learning based on local computations. Local computations simplify complex learning problems via cues available on individual trials to update a single causal structure hypothesis. Structural inferences from local computations make minimal demands on memory, require relatively small amounts of data, and need not respect normative prescriptions as inferences that are principled locally may violate those principles when combined. Over a series of 3 experiments, the authors found (a) systematic inferences from small amounts of data; (b) systematic inference of extraneous causal links; (c) influence of data presentation order on inferences; and (d) error reduction through pretraining. Without pretraining, a model based on local computations fitted data better than a Bayesian structural inference model. The data suggest that local computations serve as a heuristic for learning causal structure. Copyright 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

The Longitudinal Causal Directionality between Body Image Distress and Self-Esteem among Korean Adolescents: The Moderating Effect of Relationships with Parents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Park, Woochul; Epstein, Norman B.

2013-01-01

This study examined the longitudinal relationship between self-esteem and body image distress, as well as the moderating effect of relationships with parents, among adolescents in Korea, using nationally representative prospective panel data. Regarding causal direction, the findings supported bi-directionality for girls, but for boys the…

Global drivers of the stratospheric polar vortex via nonlinear causal discovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kretschmer, M.; Runge, J.; Coumou, D.

2016-12-01

The stratospheric polar vortex plays a major role in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, especially in driving extreme weather conditions. Many different global drivers, from Arctic sea ice to tropical climate patterns, are hypothesized to influence its stability, including linear and nonlinear mechanisms. Here a novel causal discovery approach, extending previous work [1], that is adapted to the particular challenges posed by such a high-dimensional dataset comprised of multiple, possibly nonlinearly coupled time series is demonstrated. While links in the reconstructed network can be called causal only with respect to the set of analyzed variables, the absence of causal links allows to assess where physical mechanisms are unlikely.The present work confirms recent results obtained with a similar, but linear, approach [2], regarding the impact of Barents and Kara sea ice concentrations, and extends the analysis also to tropical drivers to cover more proposed mechanisms. [1] Jakob Runge, Vladimir Petoukhov, and Jürgen Kurths, 2014: Quantifying the Strength and Delay of Climatic Interactions: The Ambiguities of Cross Correlation and a Novel Measure Based on Graphical Models. J. Climate 27, 720-739, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00159.1.[2] Marlene Kretschmer, Dim Coumou, Jonathan F. Donges, and Jakob Runge, 2016: Using Causal Effect Networks to Analyze Different Arctic Drivers of Midlatitude Winter Circulation. J. Climate 29, 4069-4081, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0654.1.

Exploring the link between environmental pollution and economic growth in EU-28 countries: Is there an environmental Kuznets curve?

PubMed Central

Armeanu, Daniel; Vintilă, Georgeta; Gherghina, Ştefan Cristian; Drăgoi, Mihaela Cristina; Teodor, Cristian

2018-01-01

This study examines the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis (EKC), considering the primary energy consumption among other country-specific variables, for a panel of the EU-28 countries during the period 1990–2014. By estimating pooled OLS regressions with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors in order to account for cross-sectional dependence, the results confirm the EKC hypothesis in the case of emissions of sulfur oxides and emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds. In addition to pooled estimations, the output of fixed-effects regressions with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors support the EKC hypothesis for greenhouse gas emissions, greenhouse gas emissions intensity of energy consumption, emissions of nitrogen oxides, emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds and emissions of ammonia. Additionally, the empirical findings from panel vector error correction model reveal a short-run unidirectional causality from GDP per capita growth to greenhouse gas emissions, as well as a bidirectional causal link between primary energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Furthermore, since there occurred no causal link between economic growth and primary energy consumption, the neo-classical view was confirmed, namely the neutrality hypothesis. PMID:29742169

Exploring the link between environmental pollution and economic growth in EU-28 countries: Is there an environmental Kuznets curve?

PubMed

Armeanu, Daniel; Vintilă, Georgeta; Andrei, Jean Vasile; Gherghina, Ştefan Cristian; Drăgoi, Mihaela Cristina; Teodor, Cristian

2018-01-01

This study examines the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis (EKC), considering the primary energy consumption among other country-specific variables, for a panel of the EU-28 countries during the period 1990-2014. By estimating pooled OLS regressions with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors in order to account for cross-sectional dependence, the results confirm the EKC hypothesis in the case of emissions of sulfur oxides and emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds. In addition to pooled estimations, the output of fixed-effects regressions with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors support the EKC hypothesis for greenhouse gas emissions, greenhouse gas emissions intensity of energy consumption, emissions of nitrogen oxides, emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds and emissions of ammonia. Additionally, the empirical findings from panel vector error correction model reveal a short-run unidirectional causality from GDP per capita growth to greenhouse gas emissions, as well as a bidirectional causal link between primary energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Furthermore, since there occurred no causal link between economic growth and primary energy consumption, the neo-classical view was confirmed, namely the neutrality hypothesis.

Assessing Causality and Persistence in Associations between Family Dinners and Adolescent Well-Being

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Musick, Kelly; Meier, Ann

2012-01-01

Adolescents who share meals with their parents score better on a range of well-being indicators. Using 3 waves of the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent Health (N = 17,977), the authors assessed the causal nature of these associations and the extent to which they persist into adulthood. They examined links between family dinners and…

Prefrontal Markers and Cognitive Performance Are Dissociated during Progressive Dopamine Lesion

PubMed Central

Wilson, Charles R. E.; Vezoli, Julien; Faraut, Maïlys C. M.; Leviel, Vincent; Knoblauch, Kenneth; Procyk, Emmanuel

2016-01-01

Dopamine is thought to directly influence the neurophysiological mechanisms of both performance monitoring and cognitive control—two processes that are critically linked in the production of adapted behaviour. Changing dopamine levels are also thought to induce cognitive changes in several neurological and psychiatric conditions. But the working model of this system as a whole remains untested. Specifically, although many researchers assume that changing dopamine levels modify neurophysiological mechanisms and their markers in frontal cortex, and that this in turn leads to cognitive changes, this causal chain needs to be verified. Using longitudinal recordings of frontal neurophysiological markers over many months during progressive dopaminergic lesion in non-human primates, we provide data that fail to support a simple interaction between dopamine, frontal function, and cognition. Feedback potentials, which are performance-monitoring signals sometimes thought to drive successful control, ceased to differentiate feedback valence at the end of the lesion, just before clinical motor threshold. In contrast, cognitive control performance and beta oscillatory markers of cognitive control were unimpaired by the lesion. The differing dynamics of these measures throughout a dopamine lesion suggests they are not all driven by dopamine in the same way. These dynamics also demonstrate that a complex non-linear set of mechanisms is engaged in the brain in response to a progressive dopamine lesion. These results question the direct causal chain from dopamine to frontal physiology and on to cognition. They imply that biomarkers of cognitive functions are not directly predictive of dopamine loss. PMID:27824858

Reversible large–scale modification of cortical networks during neuroprosthetic control

PubMed Central

Ganguly, Karunesh; Wallis, Jonathan D.

2012-01-01

Brain-Machine Interfaces (BMI) provide a framework to study cortical dynamics and the neural correlates of learning. Neuroprosthetic control has been associated with tuning changes in specific neurons directly projecting to the BMI (hereafter ‘direct neurons’). However, little is known about the larger network dynamics. By monitoring ensembles of neurons that were either causally linked to BMI control or indirectly involved, here we show that proficient neuroprosthetic control is associated with large-scale modifications to the cortical network in macaque monkeys. Specifically, there were changes in the preferred direction of both direct and indirect neurons. Interestingly, with learning, there was a relative decrease in the net modulation of indirect neural activity in comparison to the direct activity. These widespread differential changes in the direct and indirect population activity were remarkably stable from one day to the next and readily coexisted with the long-standing cortical network for upper limb control. Thus, the process of learning BMI control is associated with differential modification of neural populations based on their specific relation to movement control. PMID:21499255

Reversible large-scale modification of cortical networks during neuroprosthetic control.

PubMed

Ganguly, Karunesh; Dimitrov, Dragan F; Wallis, Jonathan D; Carmena, Jose M

2011-05-01

Brain-machine interfaces (BMIs) provide a framework for studying cortical dynamics and the neural correlates of learning. Neuroprosthetic control has been associated with tuning changes in specific neurons directly projecting to the BMI (hereafter referred to as direct neurons). However, little is known about the larger network dynamics. By monitoring ensembles of neurons that were either causally linked to BMI control or indirectly involved, we found that proficient neuroprosthetic control is associated with large-scale modifications to the cortical network in macaque monkeys. Specifically, there were changes in the preferred direction of both direct and indirect neurons. Notably, with learning, there was a relative decrease in the net modulation of indirect neural activity in comparison with direct activity. These widespread differential changes in the direct and indirect population activity were markedly stable from one day to the next and readily coexisted with the long-standing cortical network for upper limb control. Thus, the process of learning BMI control is associated with differential modification of neural populations based on their specific relation to movement control.

Causality Analysis of Neural Connectivity: Critical Examination of Existing Methods and Advances of New Methods

PubMed Central

Hu, Sanqing; Dai, Guojun; Worrell, Gregory A.; Dai, Qionghai; Liang, Hualou

2012-01-01

Granger causality (GC) is one of the most popular measures to reveal causality influence of time series and has been widely applied in economics and neuroscience. Especially, its counterpart in frequency domain, spectral GC, as well as other Granger-like causality measures have recently been applied to study causal interactions between brain areas in different frequency ranges during cognitive and perceptual tasks. In this paper, we show that: 1) GC in time domain cannot correctly determine how strongly one time series influences the other when there is directional causality between two time series, and 2) spectral GC and other Granger-like causality measures have inherent shortcomings and/or limitations because of the use of the transfer function (or its inverse matrix) and partial information of the linear regression model. On the other hand, we propose two novel causality measures (in time and frequency domains) for the linear regression model, called new causality and new spectral causality, respectively, which are more reasonable and understandable than GC or Granger-like measures. Especially, from one simple example, we point out that, in time domain, both new causality and GC adopt the concept of proportion, but they are defined on two different equations where one equation (for GC) is only part of the other (for new causality), thus the new causality is a natural extension of GC and has a sound conceptual/theoretical basis, and GC is not the desired causal influence at all. By several examples, we confirm that new causality measures have distinct advantages over GC or Granger-like measures. Finally, we conduct event-related potential causality analysis for a subject with intracranial depth electrodes undergoing evaluation for epilepsy surgery, and show that, in the frequency domain, all measures reveal significant directional event-related causality, but the result from new spectral causality is consistent with event-related time–frequency power spectrum activity. The spectral GC as well as other Granger-like measures are shown to generate misleading results. The proposed new causality measures may have wide potential applications in economics and neuroscience. PMID:21511564

A Bayesian Theory of Sequential Causal Learning and Abstract Transfer.

PubMed

Lu, Hongjing; Rojas, Randall R; Beckers, Tom; Yuille, Alan L

2016-03-01

Two key research issues in the field of causal learning are how people acquire causal knowledge when observing data that are presented sequentially, and the level of abstraction at which learning takes place. Does sequential causal learning solely involve the acquisition of specific cause-effect links, or do learners also acquire knowledge about abstract causal constraints? Recent empirical studies have revealed that experience with one set of causal cues can dramatically alter subsequent learning and performance with entirely different cues, suggesting that learning involves abstract transfer, and such transfer effects involve sequential presentation of distinct sets of causal cues. It has been demonstrated that pre-training (or even post-training) can modulate classic causal learning phenomena such as forward and backward blocking. To account for these effects, we propose a Bayesian theory of sequential causal learning. The theory assumes that humans are able to consider and use several alternative causal generative models, each instantiating a different causal integration rule. Model selection is used to decide which integration rule to use in a given learning environment in order to infer causal knowledge from sequential data. Detailed computer simulations demonstrate that humans rely on the abstract characteristics of outcome variables (e.g., binary vs. continuous) to select a causal integration rule, which in turn alters causal learning in a variety of blocking and overshadowing paradigms. When the nature of the outcome variable is ambiguous, humans select the model that yields the best fit with the recent environment, and then apply it to subsequent learning tasks. Based on sequential patterns of cue-outcome co-occurrence, the theory can account for a range of phenomena in sequential causal learning, including various blocking effects, primacy effects in some experimental conditions, and apparently abstract transfer of causal knowledge. Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Dynamic Granger-Geweke causality modeling with application to interictal spike propagation

PubMed Central

Lin, Fa-Hsuan; Hara, Keiko; Solo, Victor; Vangel, Mark; Belliveau, John W.; Stufflebeam, Steven M.; Hamalainen, Matti S.

2010-01-01

A persistent problem in developing plausible neurophysiological models of perception, cognition, and action is the difficulty of characterizing the interactions between different neural systems. Previous studies have approached this problem by estimating causal influences across brain areas activated during cognitive processing using Structural Equation Modeling and, more recently, with Granger-Geweke causality. While SEM is complicated by the need for a priori directional connectivity information, the temporal resolution of dynamic Granger-Geweke estimates is limited because the underlying autoregressive (AR) models assume stationarity over the period of analysis. We have developed a novel optimal method for obtaining data-driven directional causality estimates with high temporal resolution in both time and frequency domains. This is achieved by simultaneously optimizing the length of the analysis window and the chosen AR model order using the SURE criterion. Dynamic Granger-Geweke causality in time and frequency domains is subsequently calculated within a moving analysis window. We tested our algorithm by calculating the Granger-Geweke causality of epileptic spike propagation from the right frontal lobe to the left frontal lobe. The results quantitatively suggested the epileptic activity at the left frontal lobe was propagated from the right frontal lobe, in agreement with the clinical diagnosis. Our novel computational tool can be used to help elucidate complex directional interactions in the human brain. PMID:19378280

Blocking a Redundant Cue: What does it say about preschoolers’ causal competence?

PubMed Central

Kloos, Heidi; Sloutsky, Vladimir M.

2013-01-01

The current study investigates the degree to which preschoolers can engage in causal inferences in blocking paradigm, a paradigm in which a cue is consistently linked with a target, either alone (A-T) or paired with another cue (AB-T). Unlike previous blocking studies with preschoolers, we manipulated the causal structure of the events without changing the specific contingencies. In particular, cues were said to be either potential causes (prediction condition), or they were said to be potential effects (diagnosis condition). The causally appropriate inference is to block the redundant cue B when it is a potential cause of the target, but not when it is a potential effect. Findings show a stark difference in performance between preschoolers and adults: While adults blocked the redundant cue only in the prediction condition, children blocked the redundant cue indiscriminately across both conditions. Therefore, children, but not adults ignored the causal structure of the events. These findings challenge a developmental account that attributes sophisticated machinery of causal reasoning to young children. PMID:24033577

Zika Virus Infection as a Cause of Congenital Brain Abnormalities and Guillain-Barré Syndrome: Systematic Review.

PubMed

Krauer, Fabienne; Riesen, Maurane; Reveiz, Ludovic; Oladapo, Olufemi T; Martínez-Vega, Ruth; Porgo, Teegwendé V; Haefliger, Anina; Broutet, Nathalie J; Low, Nicola

2017-01-01

The World Health Organization (WHO) stated in March 2016 that there was scientific consensus that the mosquito-borne Zika virus was a cause of the neurological disorder Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) and of microcephaly and other congenital brain abnormalities based on rapid evidence assessments. Decisions about causality require systematic assessment to guide public health actions. The objectives of this study were to update and reassess the evidence for causality through a rapid and systematic review about links between Zika virus infection and (a) congenital brain abnormalities, including microcephaly, in the foetuses and offspring of pregnant women and (b) GBS in any population, and to describe the process and outcomes of an expert assessment of the evidence about causality. The study had three linked components. First, in February 2016, we developed a causality framework that defined questions about the relationship between Zika virus infection and each of the two clinical outcomes in ten dimensions: temporality, biological plausibility, strength of association, alternative explanations, cessation, dose-response relationship, animal experiments, analogy, specificity, and consistency. Second, we did a systematic review (protocol number CRD42016036693). We searched multiple online sources up to May 30, 2016 to find studies that directly addressed either outcome and any causality dimension, used methods to expedite study selection, data extraction, and quality assessment, and summarised evidence descriptively. Third, WHO convened a multidisciplinary panel of experts who assessed the review findings and reached consensus statements to update the WHO position on causality. We found 1,091 unique items up to May 30, 2016. For congenital brain abnormalities, including microcephaly, we included 72 items; for eight of ten causality dimensions (all except dose-response relationship and specificity), we found that more than half the relevant studies supported a causal association with Zika virus infection. For GBS, we included 36 items, of which more than half the relevant studies supported a causal association in seven of ten dimensions (all except dose-response relationship, specificity, and animal experimental evidence). Articles identified nonsystematically from May 30 to July 29, 2016 strengthened the review findings. The expert panel concluded that (a) the most likely explanation of available evidence from outbreaks of Zika virus infection and clusters of microcephaly is that Zika virus infection during pregnancy is a cause of congenital brain abnormalities including microcephaly, and (b) the most likely explanation of available evidence from outbreaks of Zika virus infection and GBS is that Zika virus infection is a trigger of GBS. The expert panel recognised that Zika virus alone may not be sufficient to cause either congenital brain abnormalities or GBS but agreed that the evidence was sufficient to recommend increased public health measures. Weaknesses are the limited assessment of the role of dengue virus and other possible cofactors, the small number of comparative epidemiological studies, and the difficulty in keeping the review up to date with the pace of publication of new research. Rapid and systematic reviews with frequent updating and open dissemination are now needed both for appraisal of the evidence about Zika virus infection and for the next public health threats that will emerge. This systematic review found sufficient evidence to say that Zika virus is a cause of congenital abnormalities and is a trigger of GBS.

Zika Virus Infection as a Cause of Congenital Brain Abnormalities and Guillain–Barré Syndrome: Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Reveiz, Ludovic; Oladapo, Olufemi T.; Martínez-Vega, Ruth; Haefliger, Anina

2017-01-01

Background The World Health Organization (WHO) stated in March 2016 that there was scientific consensus that the mosquito-borne Zika virus was a cause of the neurological disorder Guillain–Barré syndrome (GBS) and of microcephaly and other congenital brain abnormalities based on rapid evidence assessments. Decisions about causality require systematic assessment to guide public health actions. The objectives of this study were to update and reassess the evidence for causality through a rapid and systematic review about links between Zika virus infection and (a) congenital brain abnormalities, including microcephaly, in the foetuses and offspring of pregnant women and (b) GBS in any population, and to describe the process and outcomes of an expert assessment of the evidence about causality. Methods and Findings The study had three linked components. First, in February 2016, we developed a causality framework that defined questions about the relationship between Zika virus infection and each of the two clinical outcomes in ten dimensions: temporality, biological plausibility, strength of association, alternative explanations, cessation, dose–response relationship, animal experiments, analogy, specificity, and consistency. Second, we did a systematic review (protocol number CRD42016036693). We searched multiple online sources up to May 30, 2016 to find studies that directly addressed either outcome and any causality dimension, used methods to expedite study selection, data extraction, and quality assessment, and summarised evidence descriptively. Third, WHO convened a multidisciplinary panel of experts who assessed the review findings and reached consensus statements to update the WHO position on causality. We found 1,091 unique items up to May 30, 2016. For congenital brain abnormalities, including microcephaly, we included 72 items; for eight of ten causality dimensions (all except dose–response relationship and specificity), we found that more than half the relevant studies supported a causal association with Zika virus infection. For GBS, we included 36 items, of which more than half the relevant studies supported a causal association in seven of ten dimensions (all except dose–response relationship, specificity, and animal experimental evidence). Articles identified nonsystematically from May 30 to July 29, 2016 strengthened the review findings. The expert panel concluded that (a) the most likely explanation of available evidence from outbreaks of Zika virus infection and clusters of microcephaly is that Zika virus infection during pregnancy is a cause of congenital brain abnormalities including microcephaly, and (b) the most likely explanation of available evidence from outbreaks of Zika virus infection and GBS is that Zika virus infection is a trigger of GBS. The expert panel recognised that Zika virus alone may not be sufficient to cause either congenital brain abnormalities or GBS but agreed that the evidence was sufficient to recommend increased public health measures. Weaknesses are the limited assessment of the role of dengue virus and other possible cofactors, the small number of comparative epidemiological studies, and the difficulty in keeping the review up to date with the pace of publication of new research. Conclusions Rapid and systematic reviews with frequent updating and open dissemination are now needed both for appraisal of the evidence about Zika virus infection and for the next public health threats that will emerge. This systematic review found sufficient evidence to say that Zika virus is a cause of congenital abnormalities and is a trigger of GBS. PMID:28045901

On the causal structure between CO2 and global temperature

PubMed Central

Stips, Adolf; Macias, Diego; Coughlan, Clare; Garcia-Gorriz, Elisa; Liang, X. San

2016-01-01

We use a newly developed technique that is based on the information flow concept to investigate the causal structure between the global radiative forcing and the annual global mean surface temperature anomalies (GMTA) since 1850. Our study unambiguously shows one-way causality between the total Greenhouse Gases and GMTA. Specifically, it is confirmed that the former, especially CO2, are the main causal drivers of the recent warming. A significant but smaller information flow comes from aerosol direct and indirect forcing, and on short time periods, volcanic forcings. In contrast the causality contribution from natural forcings (solar irradiance and volcanic forcing) to the long term trend is not significant. The spatial explicit analysis reveals that the anthropogenic forcing fingerprint is significantly regionally varying in both hemispheres. On paleoclimate time scales, however, the cause-effect direction is reversed: temperature changes cause subsequent CO2/CH4 changes. PMID:26900086

Economic growth, combustible renewables and waste consumption, and CO₂ emissions in North Africa.

PubMed

Ben Jebli, Mehdi; Ben Youssef, Slim

2015-10-01

This paper uses panel cointegration techniques and Granger causality tests to examine the dynamic causal link between per capita real gross domestic product (GDP), combustible renewables and waste (CRW) consumption, and CO2 emissions for a panel of five North African countries during the period 1971-2008. Granger causality test results suggest short- and long-run unidirectional causalities running from CO2 emissions and CRW consumption to real GDP and a short-run unidirectional causality running from CRW to CO2 emissions. The results from panel long-run fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) estimates show that CO2 emissions and CRW consumption have a positive and statistically significant impact on GDP. Our policy recommendations are that these countries should use more CRW because this increases their output, reduces their energy dependency on fossil energy, and may decrease their CO2 emissions.

Causality Analysis of fMRI Data Based on the Directed Information Theory Framework.

PubMed

Wang, Zhe; Alahmadi, Ahmed; Zhu, David C; Li, Tongtong

2016-05-01

This paper aims to conduct fMRI-based causality analysis in brain connectivity by exploiting the directed information (DI) theory framework. Unlike the well-known Granger causality (GC) analysis, which relies on the linear prediction technique, the DI theory framework does not have any modeling constraints on the sequences to be evaluated and ensures estimation convergence. Moreover, it can be used to generate the GC graphs. In this paper, first, we introduce the core concepts in the DI framework. Second, we present how to conduct causality analysis using DI measures between two time series. We provide the detailed procedure on how to calculate the DI for two finite-time series. The two major steps involved here are optimal bin size selection for data digitization and probability estimation. Finally, we demonstrate the applicability of DI-based causality analysis using both the simulated data and experimental fMRI data, and compare the results with that of the GC analysis. Our analysis indicates that GC analysis is effective in detecting linear or nearly linear causal relationship, but may have difficulty in capturing nonlinear causal relationships. On the other hand, DI-based causality analysis is more effective in capturing both linear and nonlinear causal relationships. Moreover, it is observed that brain connectivity among different regions generally involves dynamic two-way information transmissions between them. Our results show that when bidirectional information flow is present, DI is more effective than GC to quantify the overall causal relationship.

Poverty, inequality, and increased consumption of high calorie food: Experimental evidence for a causal link.

PubMed

Bratanova, Boyka; Loughnan, Steve; Klein, Olivier; Claassen, Almudena; Wood, Robert

2016-05-01

Rising obesity represents a serious, global problem. It is now well established that obesity is associated with poverty and wealth inequality, suggesting that these factors may promote caloric intake. Whereas previous work has examined these links from an epidemiological perspective, the current paper examined them experimentally. In Study 1 we found that people experimentally induced to view themselves as poor (v. wealthy) exhibited increased calorie intake. In Study 2, participants who believed that they were poorer or wealthier than their interaction partners exhibited higher levels of anxiety compared to those in an equal partners condition; this anxiety in turn led to increased calorie consumption for people who had a strong need to belong. The findings provide causal evidence for the poverty-intake and inequality-intake links. Further, we identify social anxiety and a strong need to belong as important social psychological factors linking inequality to increased calorie intake. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Determining Directional Dependency in Causal Associations

PubMed Central

Pornprasertmanit, Sunthud; Little, Todd D.

2014-01-01

Directional dependency is a method to determine the likely causal direction of effect between two variables. This article aims to critique and improve upon the use of directional dependency as a technique to infer causal associations. We comment on several issues raised by von Eye and DeShon (2012), including: encouraging the use of the signs of skewness and excessive kurtosis of both variables, discouraging the use of D’Agostino’s K2, and encouraging the use of directional dependency to compare variables only within time points. We offer improved steps for determining directional dependency that fix the problems we note. Next, we discuss how to integrate directional dependency into longitudinal data analysis with two variables. We also examine the accuracy of directional dependency evaluations when several regression assumptions are violated. Directional dependency can suggest the direction of a relation if (a) the regression error in population is normal, (b) an unobserved explanatory variable correlates with any variables equal to or less than .2, (c) a curvilinear relation between both variables is not strong (standardized regression coefficient ≤ .2), (d) there are no bivariate outliers, and (e) both variables are continuous. PMID:24683282

Contemporary Quantitative Methods and "Slow" Causal Inference: Response to Palinkas

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stone, Susan

2014-01-01

This response considers together simultaneously occurring discussions about causal inference in social work and allied health and social science disciplines. It places emphasis on scholarship that integrates the potential outcomes model with directed acyclic graphing techniques to extract core steps in causal inference. Although this scholarship…

Cellulose synthase interactive protein 1 (CSI1) mediates the intimate relationship between cellulose microfibrils and cortical microtubules.

PubMed

Lei, Lei; Li, Shundai; Gu, Ying

2012-07-01

Cellulose is synthesized at the plasma membrane by protein complexes known as cellulose synthase complexes (CSCs). The cellulose-microtubule alignment hypothesis states that there is a causal link between the orientation of cortical microtubules and orientation of nascent cellulose microfibrils. The mechanism behind the alignment hypothesis is largely unknown. CESA interactive protein 1 (CSI1) interacts with CSCs and potentially links CSCs to the cytoskeleton. CSI1 not only co-localizes with CSCs but also travels bi-directionally in a speed indistinguishable from CSCs. The linear trajectories of CSI1-RFP coincide with the underlying microtubules labeled by YFP-TUA5. In the absence of CSI1, both the distribution and the motility of CSCs are defective and the alignment of CSCs and microtubules is disrupted. These observations led to the hypothesis that CSI1 directly mediates the interaction between CSCs and microtubules. In support of this hypothesis, CSI1 binds to microtubules directly by an in vitro microtubule-binding assay. In addition to a role in serving as a messenger from microtubule to CSCs, CSI1 labels SmaCCs/MASCs, a compartment that has been proposed to be involved in CESA trafficking and/or delivery to the plasma membrane.

Cellulose synthase interactive protein 1 (CSI1) mediates the intimate relationship between cellulose microfibrils and cortical microtubules

PubMed Central

Lei, Lei; Li, Shundai; Gu, Ying

2012-01-01

Cellulose is synthesized at the plasma membrane by protein complexes known as cellulose synthase complexes (CSCs). The cellulose-microtubule alignment hypothesis states that there is a causal link between the orientation of cortical microtubules and orientation of nascent cellulose microfibrils. The mechanism behind the alignment hypothesis is largely unknown. CESA interactive protein 1 (CSI1) interacts with CSCs and potentially links CSCs to the cytoskeleton. CSI1 not only co-localizes with CSCs but also travels bi-directionally in a speed indistinguishable from CSCs. The linear trajectories of CSI1-RFP coincide with the underlying microtubules labeled by YFP-TUA5. In the absence of CSI1, both the distribution and the motility of CSCs are defective and the alignment of CSCs and microtubules is disrupted. These observations led to the hypothesis that CSI1 directly mediates the interaction between CSCs and microtubules. In support of this hypothesis, CSI1 binds to microtubules directly by an in vitro microtubule-binding assay. In addition to a role in serving as a messenger from microtubule to CSCs, CSI1 labels SmaCCs/MASCs, a compartment that has been proposed to be involved in CESA trafficking and/or delivery to the plasma membrane. PMID:22751327

Causal Learning in Gambling Disorder: Beyond the Illusion of Control.

PubMed

Perales, José C; Navas, Juan F; Ruiz de Lara, Cristian M; Maldonado, Antonio; Catena, Andrés

2017-06-01

Causal learning is the ability to progressively incorporate raw information about dependencies between events, or between one's behavior and its outcomes, into beliefs of the causal structure of the world. In spite of the fact that some cognitive biases in gambling disorder can be described as alterations of causal learning involving gambling-relevant cues, behaviors, and outcomes, general causal learning mechanisms in gamblers have not been systematically investigated. In the present study, we compared gambling disorder patients against controls in an instrumental causal learning task. Evidence of illusion of control, namely, overestimation of the relationship between one's behavior and an uncorrelated outcome, showed up only in gamblers with strong current symptoms. Interestingly, this effect was part of a more complex pattern, in which gambling disorder patients manifested a poorer ability to discriminate between null and positive contingencies. Additionally, anomalies were related to gambling severity and current gambling disorder symptoms. Gambling-related biases, as measured by a standard psychometric tool, correlated with performance in the causal learning task, but not in the expected direction. Indeed, performance of gamblers with stronger biases tended to resemble the one of controls, which could imply that anomalies of causal learning processes play a role in gambling disorder, but do not seem to underlie gambling-specific biases, at least in a simple, direct way.

First-time viewers' comprehension of films: bridging shot transitions.

PubMed

Ildirar, Sermin; Schwan, Stephan

2015-02-01

Which perceptual and cognitive prerequisites must be met in order to be able to comprehend a film is still unresolved and a controversial issue. In order to gain some insights into this issue, our field experiment investigates how first-time adult viewers extract and integrate meaningful information across film cuts. Three major types of commonalities between adjacent shots were differentiated, which may help first-time viewers with bridging the shots: pictorial, causal, and conceptual. Twenty first-time, 20 low-experienced and 20 high-experienced viewers from Turkey were shown a set of short film clips containing these three kinds of commonalities. Film clips conformed also to the principles of continuity editing. Analyses of viewers' spontaneous interpretations show that first-time viewers indeed are able to notice basic pictorial (object identity), causal (chains of activity), as well as conceptual (links between gaze direction and object attention) commonalities between shots due to their close relationship with everyday perception and cognition. However, first-time viewers' comprehension of the commonalities is to a large degree fragile, indicating the lack of a basic notion of what constitutes a film. © 2014 The British Psychological Society.

Tests of a Direct Effect of Childhood Abuse on Adult Borderline Personality Disorder Traits: A Longitudinal Discordant Twin Design

PubMed Central

Bornovalova, Marina A.; Huibregtse, Brooke M.; Hicks, Brian M.; Keyes, Margaret; McGue, Matt; Iacono, William

2012-01-01

We used a longitudinal twin design to examine the causal association between sexual, emotional, and physical abuse in childhood (before age 18) and borderline personality disorder (BPD) traits at age 24 using a discordant twin design and biometric modeling. Additionally, we examined the mediating and moderating effects of symptoms of childhood externalizing and internalizing disorders on the link between childhood abuse and BPD traits. Although childhood abuse, BPD traits, and internalizing and externalizing symptoms were all correlated, the discordant twin analyses and biometric modeling showed little to no evidence that consistent with a causal effect of childhood abuse on BPD traits. Instead, our results indicate that the association between childhood abuse and BPD traits stems from common genetic influences that, in some cases, also overlap with internalizing and externalizing disorders. These findings are inconsistent with the widely held assumption that childhood abuse causes BPD, and suggests that BPD traits in adulthood are better accounted for by heritable vulnerabilities to internalizing and externalizing disorders. PMID:22686871

Body Investment, Depression, and Alcohol Use as Risk Factors for Suicide Proneness in College Students

PubMed Central

Lamis, Dorian A.; Malone, Patrick S.; Langhinrichsen-Rohling, Jennifer; Ellis, Thomas E.

2009-01-01

This study examined the relationships among three risk factors – body investment, depression, and alcohol use – and suicide proneness as measured by the Life Attitudes Schedule – Short Form (LAS-SF) in college students (n = 318). Path analysis was used to construct a causal model of suicide proneness. The Body Investment Scale (BIS) subscales were assumed to be causally prior to depression, which was in turn modeled as occurring prior to alcohol use, which was in turn modeled as prior to suicide proneness. Results revealed that, as expected suicide proneness was positively predicted by alcohol use, alcohol use was positively predicted by depression, and depression was negatively predicted by the body image component of the BIS. Additionally, the body image-suicide proneness link was significantly mediated by depression and its direct effect on suicide proneness as well as by the two-mediator path of body image on depression on drinking on suicide proneness. Implications are offered for the improved identification and treatment of young adults at risk for suicidal and health-diminishing behaviors. PMID:20573605

Exploring the relationship between child physical abuse and adult dating violence using a causal inference approach in an emerging adult population in South Korea.

PubMed

Jennings, Wesley G; Park, MiRang; Richards, Tara N; Tomsich, Elizabeth; Gover, Angela; Powers, Ráchael A

2014-12-01

Child maltreatment is one of the most commonly examined risk factors for violence in dating relationships. Often referred to as the intergenerational transmission of violence or cycle of violence, a fair amount of research suggests that experiencing abuse during childhood significantly increases the likelihood of involvement in violent relationships later, but these conclusions are primarily based on correlational research designs. Furthermore, the majority of research linking childhood maltreatment and dating violence has focused on samples of young people from the United States. Considering these limitations, the current study uses a rigorous, propensity score matching approach to estimate the causal effect of experiencing child physical abuse on adult dating violence among a large sample of South Korean emerging adults. Results indicate that the link between child physical abuse and adult dating violence is spurious rather than causal. Study limitations and implications are discussed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Alcohol Use Predicts Sexual Decision-Making: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of the Experimental Literature

PubMed Central

Scott-Sheldon, Lori A. J.; Carey, Kate B.; Cunningham, Karlene; Johnson, Blair T.; Carey, Michael P.

2015-01-01

Alcohol is associated with HIV and other sexually transmitted infections through increased sexual risk-taking behavior. Establishing a causal link between alcohol and sexual behavior has been challenging due to methodological limitations (e.g., reliance on cross-sectional designs). Experimental methods can be used to establish causality. The purpose of this meta-analysis was to evaluate the effects of alcohol consumption on unprotected sex intentions. We searched electronic bibliographic databases for records with relevant keywords; 26 manuscripts (k = 30 studies) met inclusion criteria. Results indicate that alcohol consumption is associated with greater intentions to engage in unprotected sex (d+s = 0.24, 0.35). The effect of alcohol on unprotected sex intentions was greater when sexual arousal was heightened. Alcohol consumption is causally linked to theoretical antecedents of sexual risk behavior, consistent with the alcohol myopia model. Addressing alcohol consumption as a determinant of unprotected sex intentions may lead to more effective HIV interventions. PMID:26080689

A study on the causal effect of urban population growth and international trade on environmental pollution: evidence from China.

PubMed

Boamah, Kofi Baah; Du, Jianguo; Boamah, Angela Jacinta; Appiah, Kingsley

2018-02-01

This study seeks to contribute to the recent literature by empirically investigating the causal effect of urban population growth and international trade on environmental pollution of China, for the period 1980-2014. The Johansen cointegration confirmed a long-run cointegration association among the utilised variables for the case of China. The direction of causality among the variables was, consequently, investigated using the recent bootstrapped Granger causality test. This bootstrapped Granger causality approach is preferred as it provides robust and accurate critical values for statistical inferences. The findings from the causality analysis revealed the existence of a bi-directional causality between import and urban population. The three most paramount variables that explain the environmental pollution in China, according to the impulse response function, are imports, urbanisation and energy consumption. Our study further established the presence of an N-shaped environmental Kuznets curve relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution of China. Hence, our study recommends that China should adhere to stricter environmental regulations in international trade, as well as enforce policies that promote energy efficiency in the urban residential and commercial sector, in the quest to mitigate environmental pollution issues as the economy advances.

School Connectedness and Chinese Adolescents' Sleep Problems: A Cross-Lagged Panel Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bao, Zhenzhou; Chen, Chuansheng; Zhang, Wei; Jiang, Yanping; Zhu, Jianjun; Lai, Xuefen

2018-01-01

Background: Although previous research indicates an association between school connectedness and adolescents' sleep quality, its causal direction has not been determined. This study used a 2-wave cross-lagged panel analysis to explore the likely causal direction between these 2 constructs. Methods: Participants were 888 Chinese adolescents (43.80%…

The Relationship between Food Insecurity and Obesity in Rural Childbearing Women

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Olson, Christine M.; Strawderman, Myla S.

2008-01-01

Context: While food insecurity and obesity have been shown to be positively associated in women, little is known about the direction of the causal relationship between these 2 constructs. Purpose: To clarify the direction of the causal relationship between food insecurity and obesity. Methods: Chi-square and logistic regression analysis of data…

Causal pathways linking environmental change with health behaviour change: Natural experimental study of new transport infrastructure and cycling to work.

PubMed

Prins, R G; Panter, J; Heinen, E; Griffin, S J; Ogilvie, D B

2016-06-01

Mechanisms linking changes to the environment with changes in physical activity are poorly understood. Insights into mechanisms of interventions can help strengthen causal attribution and improve understanding of divergent response patterns. We examined the causal pathways linking exposure to new transport infrastructure with changes in cycling to work. We used baseline (2009) and follow-up (2012) data (N=469) from the Commuting and Health in Cambridge natural experimental study (Cambridge, UK). Exposure to new infrastructure in the form of the Cambridgeshire Guided Busway was defined using residential proximity. Mediators studied were changes in perceptions of the route to work, theory of planned behaviour constructs and self-reported use of the new infrastructure. Outcomes were modelled as an increase, decrease or no change in weekly cycle commuting time. We used regression analyses to identify combinations of mediators forming potential pathways between exposure and outcome. We then tested these pathways in a path model and stratified analyses by baseline level of active commuting. We identified changes in perceptions of the route to work, and use of the cycle path, as potential mediators. Of these potential mediators, only use of the path significantly explained (85%) the effect of the infrastructure in increasing cycling. Path use also explained a decrease in cycling among more active commuters. The findings strengthen the causal argument that changing the environment led to changes in health-related behaviour via use of the new infrastructure, but also show how some commuters may have spent less time cycling as a result. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Temporal Information of Directed Causal Connectivity in Multi-Trial ERP Data using Partial Granger Causality.

PubMed

Youssofzadeh, Vahab; Prasad, Girijesh; Naeem, Muhammad; Wong-Lin, KongFatt

2016-01-01

Partial Granger causality (PGC) has been applied to analyse causal functional neural connectivity after effectively mitigating confounding influences caused by endogenous latent variables and exogenous environmental inputs. However, it is not known how this connectivity obtained from PGC evolves over time. Furthermore, PGC has yet to be tested on realistic nonlinear neural circuit models and multi-trial event-related potentials (ERPs) data. In this work, we first applied a time-domain PGC technique to evaluate simulated neural circuit models, and demonstrated that the PGC measure is more accurate and robust in detecting connectivity patterns as compared to conditional Granger causality and partial directed coherence, especially when the circuit is intrinsically nonlinear. Moreover, the connectivity in PGC settles faster into a stable and correct configuration over time. After method verification, we applied PGC to reveal the causal connections of ERP trials of a mismatch negativity auditory oddball paradigm. The PGC analysis revealed a significant bilateral but asymmetrical localised activity in the temporal lobe close to the auditory cortex, and causal influences in the frontal, parietal and cingulate cortical areas, consistent with previous studies. Interestingly, the time to reach a stable connectivity configuration (~250–300 ms) coincides with the deviation of ensemble ERPs of oddball from standard tones. Finally, using a sliding time window, we showed higher resolution dynamics of causal connectivity within an ERP trial. In summary, time-domain PGC is promising in deciphering directed functional connectivity in nonlinear and ERP trials accurately, and at a sufficiently early stage. This data-driven approach can reduce computational time, and determine the key architecture for neural circuit modeling.

Allelic variation of the FRMD7 gene in congenital idiopathic nystagmus.

PubMed

Self, James E; Shawkat, Fatima; Malpas, Crispin T; Thomas, N Simon; Harris, Christopher M; Hodgkins, Peter R; Chen, Xiaoli; Trump, Dorothy; Lotery, Andrew J

2007-09-01

To perform a genotype-phenotype correlation study in an X-linked congenital idiopathic nystagmus pedigree (pedigree 1) and to assess the allelic variance of the FRMD7 gene in congenital idiopathic nystagmus. Subjects from pedigree 1 underwent detailed clinical examination including nystagmology. Screening of FRMD7 was undertaken in pedigree 1 and in 37 other congenital idiopathic nystagmus probands and controls. Direct sequencing confirmed sequence changes. X-inactivation studies were performed in pedigree 1. The nystagmus phenotype was extremely variable in pedigree 1. We identified 2 FRMD7 mutations. However, 80% of X-linked families and 96% of simplex cases showed no mutations. X-inactivation studies demonstrated no clear causal link between skewing and variable penetrance. We confirm profound phenotypic variation in X-linked congenital idiopathic nystagmus pedigrees. We demonstrate that other congenital nystagmus genes exist besides FRMD7. We show that the role of X inactivation in variable penetrance is unclear in congenital idiopathic nystagmus. Clinical Relevance We demonstrate that phenotypic variation of nystagmus occurs in families with FRMD7 mutations. While FRMD7 mutations may be found in some cases of X-linked congenital idiopathic nystagmus, the diagnostic yield is low. X-inactivation assays are unhelpful as a test for carrier status for this disease.

Impacts of agricultural land use on biological integrity: A causal analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Riseng, C.M.; Wiley, M.J.; Black, R.W.; Munn, M.D.

2011-01-01

Agricultural land use has often been linked to nutrient enrichment, habitat degradation, hydrologic alteration, and loss of biotic integrity in streams. The U.S. Geological Survey's National Water Quality Assessment Program sampled 226 stream sites located in eight agriculture-dominated study units across the United States to investigate the geographic variability and causes of agricultural impacts on stream biotic integrity. In this analysis we used structural equation modeling (SEM) to develop a national and set of regional causal models linking agricultural land use to measured instream conditions. We then examined the direct, indirect, and total effects of agriculture on biotic integrity as it acted through multiple water quality and habitat pathways. In our nation-wide model, cropland affected benthic communities by both altering structural habitats and by imposing water quality-related stresses. Regionspecific modeling demonstrated that geographic context altered the relative importance of causal pathways through which agricultural activities affected stream biotic integrity. Cropland had strong negative total effects on the invertebrate community in the national, Midwest, and Western models, but a very weak effect in the Eastern Coastal Plain model. In theWestern Arid and Eastern Coastal Plain study regions, cropland impacts were transmitted primarily through dissolved water quality contaminants, but in the Midwestern region, they were transmitted primarily through particulate components of water quality. Habitat effects were important in the Western Arid model, but negligible in the Midwest and Eastern Coastal Plain models. The relative effects of riparian forested wetlands also varied regionally, having positive effects on biotic integrity in the Eastern Coastal Plain andWestern Arid region models, but no statistically significant effect in the Midwest. These differences in response to cropland and riparian cover suggest that best management practices and planning for the mitigation of agricultural land use impacts on stream ecosystems should be regionally focused. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

Manifest Variable Granger Causality Models for Developmental Research: A Taxonomy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

von Eye, Alexander; Wiedermann, Wolfgang

2015-01-01

Granger models are popular when it comes to testing hypotheses that relate series of measures causally to each other. In this article, we propose a taxonomy of Granger causality models. The taxonomy results from crossing the four variables Order of Lag, Type of (Contemporaneous) Effect, Direction of Effect, and Segment of Dependent Series…

Exploratory Causal Analysis in Bivariate Time Series Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCracken, James M.

Many scientific disciplines rely on observational data of systems for which it is difficult (or impossible) to implement controlled experiments and data analysis techniques are required for identifying causal information and relationships directly from observational data. This need has lead to the development of many different time series causality approaches and tools including transfer entropy, convergent cross-mapping (CCM), and Granger causality statistics. In this thesis, the existing time series causality method of CCM is extended by introducing a new method called pairwise asymmetric inference (PAI). It is found that CCM may provide counter-intuitive causal inferences for simple dynamics with strong intuitive notions of causality, and the CCM causal inference can be a function of physical parameters that are seemingly unrelated to the existence of a driving relationship in the system. For example, a CCM causal inference might alternate between ''voltage drives current'' and ''current drives voltage'' as the frequency of the voltage signal is changed in a series circuit with a single resistor and inductor. PAI is introduced to address both of these limitations. Many of the current approaches in the times series causality literature are not computationally straightforward to apply, do not follow directly from assumptions of probabilistic causality, depend on assumed models for the time series generating process, or rely on embedding procedures. A new approach, called causal leaning, is introduced in this work to avoid these issues. The leaning is found to provide causal inferences that agree with intuition for both simple systems and more complicated empirical examples, including space weather data sets. The leaning may provide a clearer interpretation of the results than those from existing time series causality tools. A practicing analyst can explore the literature to find many proposals for identifying drivers and causal connections in times series data sets, but little research exists of how these tools compare to each other in practice. This work introduces and defines exploratory causal analysis (ECA) to address this issue along with the concept of data causality in the taxonomy of causal studies introduced in this work. The motivation is to provide a framework for exploring potential causal structures in time series data sets. ECA is used on several synthetic and empirical data sets, and it is found that all of the tested time series causality tools agree with each other (and intuitive notions of causality) for many simple systems but can provide conflicting causal inferences for more complicated systems. It is proposed that such disagreements between different time series causality tools during ECA might provide deeper insight into the data than could be found otherwise.

Tests of causal links between alcohol abuse or dependence and major depression.

PubMed

Fergusson, David M; Boden, Joseph M; Horwood, L John

2009-03-01

There has been a great deal of research on the comorbidity between alcohol abuse or dependence (AAD) and major depression (MD). However, it is unclear whether AAD increases the risk of MD or vice versa. To examine the associations between AAD and MD using fixed-effects modeling to control for confounding and using structural equation models to ascertain the direction of causality. Data were gathered during the course of the Christchurch Health and Development Study, a 25-year longitudinal study of a birth cohort of children from New Zealand (635 boys, 630 girls). General community sample. The analysis was based on a sample of 1055 participants with available data on AAD and MD at ages 17 to 18, 20 to 21, and 24 to 25 years. Symptom criteria for AAD and MD from the DSM-IV at ages 17 to 18, 20 to 21, and 24 to 25 years as well as measures of life stress, cannabis use, other illicit drug use, affiliation with deviant peers, unemployment, partner substance use, and partner criminality at ages 17 to 18, 20 to 21, and 24 to 25 years. There were significant (P < .001) pooled associations between AAD and MD. Controlling for confounding factors using conditional fixed-effects models and time-dynamic covariate factors reduced the magnitude of these associations, but they remained statistically significant. Structural equation modeling suggested that the best-fitting causal model was one in which AAD led to increased risk of MD. The findings suggest that the associations between AAD and MD were best explained by a causal model in which problems with alcohol led to increased risk of MD as opposed to a self-medication model in which MD led to increased risk of AAD.

Exploring the future with anticipatory networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skulimowski, A. M. J.

2013-01-01

This paper presents a theory of anticipatory networks that originates from anticipatory models of consequences in multicriteria decision problems. When making a decision, the decision maker takes into account the anticipated outcomes of each future decision problem linked by the causal relations with the present one. In a network of linked decision problems, the causal relations are defined between time-ordered nodes. The scenarios of future consequences of each decision are modeled by multiple vertices starting from an appropriate node. The network is supplemented by one or more relations of anticipation, or future feedback, which describe a situation where decision makers take into account the anticipated results of some future optimization problems while making their choice. So arises a multigraph of decision problems linked causally and by one or more anticipation relation, termed here the anticipatory network. We will present the properties of anticipatory networks and propose a method of reducing, transforming and using them to solve current decision problems. Furthermore, it will be shown that most anticipatory networks can be regarded as superanticipatory systems, i.e. systems that are anticipatory in the Rosen sense and contain a future model of at least one other anticipatory system. The anticipatory networks can also be applied to filter the set of future scenarios in a foresight exercise.

Developing Citizenship through Honors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hester, Jacob Andrew; Besing, Kari Lynn

2017-01-01

For decades, research has shown that higher levels of education correspond to increased interest in politics and civic engagement. Despite the vast amount of scholarly attention, why this link exists is still disputed. One theory about the connection is the civic education hypothesis, which claims that the causal link between education and civic…

Inferring hidden causal relations between pathway members using reduced Google matrix of directed biological networks

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Signaling pathways represent parts of the global biological molecular network which connects them into a seamless whole through complex direct and indirect (hidden) crosstalk whose structure can change during development or in pathological conditions. We suggest a novel methodology, called Googlomics, for the structural analysis of directed biological networks using spectral analysis of their Google matrices, using parallels with quantum scattering theory, developed for nuclear and mesoscopic physics and quantum chaos. We introduce analytical “reduced Google matrix” method for the analysis of biological network structure. The method allows inferring hidden causal relations between the members of a signaling pathway or a functionally related group of genes. We investigate how the structure of hidden causal relations can be reprogrammed as a result of changes in the transcriptional network layer during cancerogenesis. The suggested Googlomics approach rigorously characterizes complex systemic changes in the wiring of large causal biological networks in a computationally efficient way. PMID:29370181

Causality and complexity: the myth of objectivity in science.

PubMed

Mikulecky, Donald C

2007-10-01

Two distinctly different worldviews dominate today's thinking in science and in the world of ideas outside of science. Using the approach advocated by Robert M. Hutchins, it is possible to see a pattern of interaction between ideas in science and in other spheres such as philosophy, religion, and politics. Instead of compartmentalizing these intellectual activities, it is worthwhile to look for common threads of mutual influence. Robert Rosen has created an approach to scientific epistemology that might seem radical to some. However, it has characteristics that resemble ideas in other fields, in particular in the writings of George Lakoff, Leo Strauss, and George Soros. Historically, the atmosphere at the University of Chicago during Hutchins' presidency gave rise to Rashevsky's relational biology, which Rosen carried forward. Strauss was writing his political philosophy there at the same time. One idea is paramount in all this, and it is Lakoff who gives us the most insight into how the worldviews differ using this idea. The central difference has to do with causality, the fundamental concept that we use to build a worldview. Causal entailment has two distinct forms in Lakoff 's analysis: direct causality and complex causality. Rosen's writings on complexity create a picture of complex causality that is extremely useful in its detail, grounding in the ideas of Aristotle. Strauss asks for a return to the ancients to put philosophy back on track. Lakoff sees the weaknesses in Western philosophy in a similar way, and Rosen provides tools for dealing with the problem. This introduction to the relationships between the thinking of these authors is meant to stimulate further discourse on the role of complex causal entailment in all areas of thought, and how it brings them together in a holistic worldview. The worldview built on complex causality is clearly distinct from that built around simple, direct causality. One important difference is that the impoverished causal entailment that accompanies the machine metaphor in science is unable to give us a clear way to distinguish living organisms from machines. Complex causality finds a dichotomy between organisms, which are closed to efficient cause, and machines, which require entailment from outside. An argument can be made that confusing living organisms with machines, as is done in the worldview using direct cause, makes religion a necessity to supply the missing causal entailment.

[Causality link in criminal law: role of epidemiology].

PubMed

Zocchetti, C; Riboldi, L

2003-01-01

This paper focusses on the role of epidemiology in demonstrating causality in criminal trials of toxic tort litigation. First of all, consideration is given of the specificity of the criminal trial and of the role of the epidemiologist as expert witness. As a second step the concept of causality is examined separating general from specific (individual level) causality. As regards general causality, strategies based on some criteria (example: Bradford-Hill criteria) are contrasted with approaches that do not consider causality a matter of science but one of health policy; and specific methods frequently used (meta-analysis, risk assessment, International Boards evaluation,....) are discussed, with special reference to the adoption of high-level standards and to the context of cross-examination. As regards individual level causality the difficulties of the epidemiologic approach to such evaluation are stressed, with special reference to topics like expected value, attributable risk, and probability of causation. All examples are taken from Italian court trials. A general comment on the difficulties of using the criminal trial (dominated by the "but for" rule) for toxic tort litigation and on the opportunity to switch to trials (civil, administrative) with less stringent causal rules ("more probable than not") is offered, with a consideration also of what are called "class actions".

A network perspective on comorbid depression in adolescents with obsessive-compulsive disorder.

PubMed

Jones, Payton J; Mair, Patrick; Riemann, Bradley C; Mugno, Beth L; McNally, Richard J

2018-01-01

People with obsessive-compulsive disorder [OCD] frequently suffer from depression, a comorbidity associated with greater symptom severity and suicide risk. We examined the associations between OCD and depression symptoms in 87 adolescents with primary OCD. We computed an association network, a graphical LASSO, and a directed acyclic graph (DAG) to model symptom interactions. Models showed OCD and depression as separate syndromes linked by bridge symptoms. Bridges between the two disorders emerged between obsessional problems in the OCD syndrome, and guilt, concentration problems, and sadness in the depression syndrome. A directed network indicated that OCD symptoms directionally precede depression symptoms. Concentration impairment emerged as a highly central node that may be distinctive to adolescents. We conclude that the network approach to mental disorders provides a new way to understand the etiology and maintenance of comorbid OCD-depression. Network analysis can improve research and treatment of mental disorder comorbidities by generating hypotheses concerning potential causal symptom structures and by identifying symptoms that may bridge disorders. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Google matrix of business process management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abel, M. W.; Shepelyansky, D. L.

2011-12-01

Development of efficient business process models and determination of their characteristic properties are subject of intense interdisciplinary research. Here, we consider a business process model as a directed graph. Its nodes correspond to the units identified by the modeler and the link direction indicates the causal dependencies between units. It is of primary interest to obtain the stationary flow on such a directed graph, which corresponds to the steady-state of a firm during the business process. Following the ideas developed recently for the World Wide Web, we construct the Google matrix for our business process model and analyze its spectral properties. The importance of nodes is characterized by PageRank and recently proposed CheiRank and 2DRank, respectively. The results show that this two-dimensional ranking gives a significant information about the influence and communication properties of business model units. We argue that the Google matrix method, described here, provides a new efficient tool helping companies to make their decisions on how to evolve in the exceedingly dynamic global market.

Loop Analysis of Causal Feedback in Epidemiology: An Illustration Relating To Urban Neighborhoods and Resident Depressive Experiences

PubMed Central

2008-01-01

The causal feedback implied by urban neighborhood conditions that shape human health experiences, that in turn shape neighborhood conditions through a complex causal web, raises a challenge for traditional epidemiological causal analyses. This article introduces the loop analysis method, and builds off of a core loop model linking neighborhood property vacancy rate, resident depressive symptoms, rate of neighborhood death, and rate of neighborhood exit in a feedback network. I justify and apply loop analysis to the specific example of depressive symptoms and abandoned urban residential property to show how inquiries into the behavior of causal systems can answer different kinds of hypotheses, and thereby compliment those of causal modeling using statistical models. Neighborhood physical conditions that are only indirectly influenced by depressive symptoms may nevertheless manifest in the mental health experiences of their residents; conversely, neighborhood physical conditions may be a significant mental health risk for the population of neighborhood residents. I find that participatory greenspace programs are likely to produce adaptive responses in depressive symptoms and different neighborhood conditions, which are different in character to non-participatory greenspace interventions. PMID:17706851

Links between causal effects and causal association for surrogacy evaluation in a gaussian setting.

PubMed

Conlon, Anna; Taylor, Jeremy; Li, Yun; Diaz-Ordaz, Karla; Elliott, Michael

2017-11-30

Two paradigms for the evaluation of surrogate markers in randomized clinical trials have been proposed: the causal effects paradigm and the causal association paradigm. Each of these paradigms rely on assumptions that must be made to proceed with estimation and to validate a candidate surrogate marker (S) for the true outcome of interest (T). We consider the setting in which S and T are Gaussian and are generated from structural models that include an unobserved confounder. Under the assumed structural models, we relate the quantities used to evaluate surrogacy within both the causal effects and causal association frameworks. We review some of the common assumptions made to aid in estimating these quantities and show that assumptions made within one framework can imply strong assumptions within the alternative framework. We demonstrate that there is a similarity, but not exact correspondence between the quantities used to evaluate surrogacy within each framework, and show that the conditions for identifiability of the surrogacy parameters are different from the conditions, which lead to a correspondence of these quantities. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Using Ensemble-Based Methods for Directly Estimating Causal Effects: An Investigation of Tree-Based G-Computation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Austin, Peter C.

2012-01-01

Researchers are increasingly using observational or nonrandomized data to estimate causal treatment effects. Essential to the production of high-quality evidence is the ability to reduce or minimize the confounding that frequently occurs in observational studies. When using the potential outcome framework to define causal treatment effects, one…

Testing for Granger Causality in the Frequency Domain: A Phase Resampling Method.

PubMed

Liu, Siwei; Molenaar, Peter

2016-01-01

This article introduces phase resampling, an existing but rarely used surrogate data method for making statistical inferences of Granger causality in frequency domain time series analysis. Granger causality testing is essential for establishing causal relations among variables in multivariate dynamic processes. However, testing for Granger causality in the frequency domain is challenging due to the nonlinear relation between frequency domain measures (e.g., partial directed coherence, generalized partial directed coherence) and time domain data. Through a simulation study, we demonstrate that phase resampling is a general and robust method for making statistical inferences even with short time series. With Gaussian data, phase resampling yields satisfactory type I and type II error rates in all but one condition we examine: when a small effect size is combined with an insufficient number of data points. Violations of normality lead to slightly higher error rates but are mostly within acceptable ranges. We illustrate the utility of phase resampling with two empirical examples involving multivariate electroencephalography (EEG) and skin conductance data.

Locus-specific epigenetic remodeling controls addiction- and depression-related behaviors.

PubMed

Heller, Elizabeth A; Cates, Hannah M; Peña, Catherine J; Sun, Haosheng; Shao, Ningyi; Feng, Jian; Golden, Sam A; Herman, James P; Walsh, Jessica J; Mazei-Robison, Michelle; Ferguson, Deveroux; Knight, Scott; Gerber, Mark A; Nievera, Christian; Han, Ming-Hu; Russo, Scott J; Tamminga, Carol S; Neve, Rachael L; Shen, Li; Zhang, H Steve; Zhang, Feng; Nestler, Eric J

2014-12-01

Chronic exposure to drugs of abuse or stress regulates transcription factors, chromatin-modifying enzymes and histone post-translational modifications in discrete brain regions. Given the promiscuity of the enzymes involved, it has not yet been possible to obtain direct causal evidence to implicate the regulation of transcription and consequent behavioral plasticity by chromatin remodeling that occurs at a single gene. We investigated the mechanism linking chromatin dynamics to neurobiological phenomena by applying engineered transcription factors to selectively modify chromatin at a specific mouse gene in vivo. We found that histone methylation or acetylation at the Fosb locus in nucleus accumbens, a brain reward region, was sufficient to control drug- and stress-evoked transcriptional and behavioral responses via interactions with the endogenous transcriptional machinery. This approach allowed us to relate the epigenetic landscape at a given gene directly to regulation of its expression and to its subsequent effects on reward behavior.

Cell therapy for basement membrane-linked diseases.

PubMed

Nyström, Alexander; Bornert, Olivier; Kühl, Tobias

2017-01-01

For most disorders caused by mutations in genes encoding basement membrane (BM) proteins, there are at present only limited treatment options available. Genetic BM-linked disorders can be viewed as especially suited for treatment with cell-based therapy approaches because the proteins that need to be restored are located in the extracellular space. In consequence, complete and permanent engraftment of cells does not necessarily have to occur to achieve substantial causal therapeutic effects. For these disorders cells can be used as transient vehicles for protein replacement. In addition, it is becoming evident that BM-linked genetic disorders are modified by secondary diseases mechanisms. Cell-based therapies have also the ability to target such disease modifying mechanisms. Thus, cell therapies can simultaneously provide causal treatment and symptomatic relief, and accordingly hold great potential for treatment of BM-linked disorders. However, this potential has for most applications and diseases so far not been realized. Here, we will present the state of cell therapies for BM-linked diseases. We will discuss use of both pluripotent and differentiated cells, the limitation of the approaches, their challenges, and the way forward to potential wider implementation of cell therapies in the clinics. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of cognitive training on the structure of intelligence.

PubMed

Protzko, John

2017-08-01

Targeted cognitive training, such as n-back or speed of processing training, in the hopes of raising intelligence is of great theoretical and practical importance. The most important theoretical contribution, however, is not about the malleability of intelligence. Instead, I argue the most important and novel theoretical contribution is understanding the causal structure of intelligence. The structure of intelligence, most often taken as a hierarchical factor structure, necessarily prohibits transfer from subfactors back up to intelligence. If this is the true structure, targeted cognitive training interventions will fail to increase intelligence not because intelligence is immutable, but simply because there is no causal connection between, say, working memory and intelligence. Seeing the structure of intelligence for what it is, a causal measurement model, allows us to focus testing on the presence and absence of causal links. If we can increase subfactors without transfer to other facets, we may be confirming the correct causal structure more than testing malleability. Such a blending into experimental psychometrics is a strong theoretical pursuit.

Does Nutrition Cause Intelligence? A Reanalysis of the Cali Experiment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bejar, Isaac I.

1981-01-01

Recent literature suggests a causal link between malnutrition and impaired cognitive development. A selective literature review indicates that the presence or absence of such a link cannot be established. A reanalysis of an experiment indicated after four years of treatment there was no association between cognitive and nutritional status.…

Nonresident Fatherhood and Adolescent Sexual Behavior: A Comparison of Siblings Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ryan, Rebecca M.

2015-01-01

Although voluminous research has linked nonresident fatherhood to riskier sexual behavior in adolescence, including earlier sexual debut, neither the causality of that link nor the mechanism accounting for it has been well-established. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1979--the Young Adult Survey (CNLSY-YA), the present…

Immunity as a link between obesity and insulin resistance

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a major health problem in the United States and worldwide. Obesity is causally linked to the pathogenesis of insulin resistance, metabolic syndrome and T2DM. A chronic low-grade inflammation occurring in adipose tissue is at least in part responsible for the obesit...

A Visual Analytics Framework for Identifying Topic Drivers in Media Events.

PubMed

Lu, Yafeng; Wang, Hong; Landis, Steven; Maciejewski, Ross

2017-09-14

Media data has been the subject of large scale analysis with applications of text mining being used to provide overviews of media themes and information flows. Such information extracted from media articles has also shown its contextual value of being integrated with other data, such as criminal records and stock market pricing. In this work, we explore linking textual media data with curated secondary textual data sources through user-guided semantic lexical matching for identifying relationships and data links. In this manner, critical information can be identified and used to annotate media timelines in order to provide a more detailed overview of events that may be driving media topics and frames. These linked events are further analyzed through an application of causality modeling to model temporal drivers between the data series. Such causal links are then annotated through automatic entity extraction which enables the analyst to explore persons, locations, and organizations that may be pertinent to the media topic of interest. To demonstrate the proposed framework, two media datasets and an armed conflict event dataset are explored.

An Efficient Two-Tier Causal Protocol for Mobile Distributed Systems

PubMed Central

Dominguez, Eduardo Lopez; Pomares Hernandez, Saul E.; Gomez, Gustavo Rodriguez; Medina, Maria Auxilio

2013-01-01

Causal ordering is a useful tool for mobile distributed systems (MDS) to reduce the non-determinism induced by three main aspects: host mobility, asynchronous execution, and unpredictable communication delays. Several causal protocols for MDS exist. Most of them, in order to reduce the overhead and the computational cost over wireless channels and mobile hosts (MH), ensure causal ordering at and according to the causal view of the Base Stations. Nevertheless, these protocols introduce certain disadvantage, such as unnecessary inhibition at the delivery of messages. In this paper, we present an efficient causal protocol for groupware that satisfies the MDS's constraints, avoiding unnecessary inhibitions and ensuring the causal delivery based on the view of the MHs. One interesting aspect of our protocol is that it dynamically adapts the causal information attached to each message based on the number of messages with immediate dependency relation, and this is not directly proportional to the number of MHs. PMID:23585828

Role of visceral adipose tissue in aging.

PubMed

Huffman, Derek M; Barzilai, Nir

2009-10-01

Visceral fat (VF) accretion is a hallmark of aging in humans. Epidemiologic studies have implicated abdominal obesity as a major risk factor for insulin resistance, type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, metabolic syndrome and death. Studies utilizing novel rodent models of visceral obesity and surgical strategies in humans have been undertaken to determine if subcutaneous (SC) abdominal or VF are causally linked to age-related diseases. Specific depletion or expansion of the VF depot using genetic or surgical tools in rodents has been shown to have direct effects on disease risk. In contrast, surgically removing large quantities of SC fat does not consistently improve metabolic parameters in humans or rodents, while benefits were observed with SC fat expansion in mice, suggesting that SC fat accrual is not an important contributor to metabolic decline. There is also compelling evidence in humans that abdominal obesity is a stronger risk factor for mortality risk than general obesity. Likewise, we have shown that surgical removal of VF improves mean and maximum lifespan in rats, providing the first causal evidence that VF depletion may be an important underlying cause of improved lifespan with caloric restriction. This review provides both corollary and causal evidence for the importance of accounting for body fat distribution, and specifically VF, when assessing disease and mortality risk. Given the hazards of VF accumulation on health, treatment strategies aimed at selectively depleting VF should be considered as a viable tool to effectively reduce disease risk in humans.

Determining the relative importance of climatic drivers on spring phenology in grassland ecosystems of semi-arid areas.

PubMed

Zhu, Likai; Meng, Jijun

2015-02-01

Understanding climate controls on spring phenology in grassland ecosystems is critically important in predicting the impacts of future climate change on grassland productivity and carbon storage. The third-generation Global Inventory Monitoring and Modeling System (GIMMS3g) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data were applied to derive the start of the growing season (SOS) from 1982-2010 in grassland ecosystems of Ordos, a typical semi-arid area in China. Then, the conditional Granger causality method was utilized to quantify the directed functional connectivity between key climatic drivers and the SOS. The results show that the asymmetric Gaussian (AG) function is better in reducing noise of NDVI time series than the double logistic (DL) function within our study area. The southeastern Ordos has earlier occurrence and lower variability of the SOS, whereas the northwestern Ordos has later occurrence and higher variability of the SOS. The research also reveals that spring precipitation has stronger causal connectivity with the SOS than other climatic factors over different grassland ecosystem types. There is no statistically significant trend across the study area, while the similar pattern is observed for spring precipitation. Our study highlights the link of spring phenology with different grassland types, and the use of coupling remote sensing and econometric tools. With the dramatic increase in global change research, Granger causality method augurs well for further development and application of time-series modeling of complex social-ecological systems at the intersection of remote sensing and landscape changes.

Bayes Nets and Babies: Infants' Developing Statistical Reasoning Abilities and Their Representation of Causal Knowledge

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sobel, David M.; Kirkham, Natasha Z.

2007-01-01

A fundamental assumption of the causal graphical model framework is the Markov assumption, which posits that learners can discriminate between two events that are dependent because of a direct causal relation between them and two events that are independent conditional on the value of another event(s). Sobel and Kirkham (2006) demonstrated that…

Inferring Causalities in Landscape Genetics: An Extension of Wright's Causal Modeling to Distance Matrices.

PubMed

Fourtune, Lisa; Prunier, Jérôme G; Paz-Vinas, Ivan; Loot, Géraldine; Veyssière, Charlotte; Blanchet, Simon

2018-04-01

Identifying landscape features that affect functional connectivity among populations is a major challenge in fundamental and applied sciences. Landscape genetics combines landscape and genetic data to address this issue, with the main objective of disentangling direct and indirect relationships among an intricate set of variables. Causal modeling has strong potential to address the complex nature of landscape genetic data sets. However, this statistical approach was not initially developed to address the pairwise distance matrices commonly used in landscape genetics. Here, we aimed to extend the applicability of two causal modeling methods-that is, maximum-likelihood path analysis and the directional separation test-by developing statistical approaches aimed at handling distance matrices and improving functional connectivity inference. Using simulations, we showed that these approaches greatly improved the robustness of the absolute (using a frequentist approach) and relative (using an information-theoretic approach) fits of the tested models. We used an empirical data set combining genetic information on a freshwater fish species (Gobio occitaniae) and detailed landscape descriptors to demonstrate the usefulness of causal modeling to identify functional connectivity in wild populations. Specifically, we demonstrated how direct and indirect relationships involving altitude, temperature, and oxygen concentration influenced within- and between-population genetic diversity of G. occitaniae.

Time-varying causal network of the Korean financial system based on firm-specific risk premiums

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Jae Wook; Ko, Bonggyun; Cho, Poongjin; Chang, Woojin

2016-09-01

The aim of this paper is to investigate the Korean financial system based on time-varying causal network. We discover many stylized facts by utilizing the firm-specific risk premiums for measuring the causality direction from a firm to firm. At first, we discover that the interconnectedness of causal network is affected by the outbreak of financial events; the co-movement of firm-specific risk premium is strengthened after each positive event, and vice versa. Secondly, we find that the major sector of the Korean financial system is the Depositories, and the financial reform in June-2011 achieves its purpose by weakening the power of risk-spillovers of Broker-Dealers. Thirdly, we identify that the causal network is a small-world network with scale-free topology where the power-law exponents of out-Degree and negative event are more significant than those of in-Degree and positive event. Lastly, we discuss that the current aspects of causal network are closely related to the long-term future scenario of the KOSPI Composite index where the direction and stability are significantly affected by the power of risk-spillovers and the power-law exponents of degree distributions, respectively.

Lateral habenula perturbation reduces default-mode network connectivity in a rat model of depression.

PubMed

Clemm von Hohenberg, Christian; Weber-Fahr, Wolfgang; Lebhardt, Philipp; Ravi, Namasivayam; Braun, Urs; Gass, Natalia; Becker, Robert; Sack, Markus; Cosa Linan, Alejandro; Gerchen, Martin Fungisai; Reinwald, Jonathan Rochus; Oettl, Lars-Lennart; Meyer-Lindenberg, Andreas; Vollmayr, Barbara; Kelsch, Wolfgang; Sartorius, Alexander

2018-03-27

Hyperconnectivity of the default-mode network (DMN) is one of the most widely replicated neuroimaging findings in major depressive disorder (MDD). Further, there is growing evidence for a central role of the lateral habenula (LHb) in the pathophysiology of MDD. There is preliminary neuroimaging evidence linking LHb and the DMN, but no causal relationship has been shown to date. We combined optogenetics and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), to establish a causal relationship, using an animal model of treatment-resistant depression, namely Negative Cognitive State rats. First, an inhibitory light-sensitive ion channel was introduced into the LHb by viral transduction. Subsequently, laser stimulation was performed during fMRI acquisition on a 9.4 Tesla animal scanner. Neural activity and connectivity were assessed, before, during and after laser stimulation. We observed a connectivity decrease in the DMN following laser-induced LHb perturbation. Our data indicate a causal link between LHb downregulation and reduction in DMN connectivity. These findings may advance our mechanistic understanding of LHb inhibition, which had previously been identified as a promising therapeutic principle, especially for treatment-resistant depression.

Non-causal spike filtering improves decoding of movement intention for intracortical BCIs

PubMed Central

Masse, Nicolas Y.; Jarosiewicz, Beata; Simeral, John D.; Bacher, Daniel; Stavisky, Sergey D.; Cash, Sydney S.; Oakley, Erin M.; Berhanu, Etsub; Eskandar, Emad; Friehs, Gerhard; Hochberg, Leigh R.; Donoghue, John P.

2014-01-01

Background Multiple types of neural signals are available for controlling assistive devices through brain-computer interfaces (BCIs). Intracortically-recorded spiking neural signals are attractive for BCIs because they can in principle provide greater fidelity of encoded information compared to electrocorticographic (ECoG) signals and electroencephalograms (EEGs). Recent reports show that the information content of these spiking neural signals can be reliably extracted simply by causally band-pass filtering the recorded extracellular voltage signals and then applying a spike detection threshold, without relying on “sorting” action potentials. New method We show that replacing the causal filter with an equivalent non-causal filter increases the information content extracted from the extracellular spiking signal and improves decoding of intended movement direction. This method can be used for real-time BCI applications by using a 4 ms lag between recording and filtering neural signals. Results Across 18 sessions from two people with tetraplegia enrolled in the BrainGate2 pilot clinical trial, we found that threshold crossing events extracted using this non-causal filtering method were significantly more informative of each participant’s intended cursor kinematics compared to threshold crossing events derived from causally filtered signals. This new method decreased the mean angular error between the intended and decoded cursor direction by 9.7° for participant S3, who was implanted 5.4 years prior to this study, and by 3.5° for participant T2, who was implanted 3 months prior to this study. Conclusions Non-causally filtering neural signals prior to extracting threshold crossing events may be a simple yet effective way to condition intracortically recorded neural activity for direct control of external devices through BCIs. PMID:25128256

Pairwise measures of causal direction in the epidemiology of sleep problems and depression.

PubMed

Rosenström, Tom; Jokela, Markus; Puttonen, Sampsa; Hintsanen, Mirka; Pulkki-Råback, Laura; Viikari, Jorma S; Raitakari, Olli T; Keltikangas-Järvinen, Liisa

2012-01-01

Depressive mood is often preceded by sleep problems, suggesting that they increase the risk of depression. Sleep problems can also reflect prodromal symptom of depression, thus temporal precedence alone is insufficient to confirm causality. The authors applied recently introduced statistical causal-discovery algorithms that can estimate causality from cross-sectional samples in order to infer the direction of causality between the two sets of symptoms from a novel perspective. Two common-population samples were used; one from the Young Finns study (690 men and 997 women, average age 37.7 years, range 30-45), and another from the Wisconsin Longitudinal study (3101 men and 3539 women, average age 53.1 years, range 52-55). These included three depression questionnaires (two in Young Finns data) and two sleep problem questionnaires. Three different causality estimates were constructed for each data set, tested in a benchmark data with a (practically) known causality, and tested for assumption violations using simulated data. Causality algorithms performed well in the benchmark data and simulations, and a prediction was drawn for future empirical studies to confirm: for minor depression/dysphoria, sleep problems cause significantly more dysphoria than dysphoria causes sleep problems. The situation may change as depression becomes more severe, or more severe levels of symptoms are evaluated; also, artefacts due to severe depression being less well presented in the population data than minor depression may intervene the estimation for depression scales that emphasize severe symptoms. The findings are consistent with other emerging epidemiological and biological evidence.

Learning About Causes From People: Observational Causal Learning in 24-Month-Old Infants

PubMed Central

Meltzoff, Andrew N.; Waismeyer, Anna; Gopnik, Alison

2013-01-01

How do infants and young children learn about the causal structure of the world around them? In 4 experiments we investigate whether young children initially give special weight to the outcomes of goal-directed interventions they see others perform and use this to distinguish correlations from genuine causal relations—observational causal learning. In a new 2-choice procedure, 2- to 4-year-old children saw 2 identical objects (potential causes). Activation of 1 but not the other triggered a spatially remote effect. Children systematically intervened on the causal object and predictively looked to the effect. Results fell to chance when the cause and effect were temporally reversed, so that the events were merely associated but not causally related. The youngest children (24- to 36-month-olds) were more likely to make causal inferences when covariations were the outcome of human interventions than when they were not. Observational causal learning may be a fundamental learning mechanism that enables infants to abstract the causal structure of the world. PMID:22369335

Granger Causality and Transfer Entropy Are Equivalent for Gaussian Variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnett, Lionel; Barrett, Adam B.; Seth, Anil K.

2009-12-01

Granger causality is a statistical notion of causal influence based on prediction via vector autoregression. Developed originally in the field of econometrics, it has since found application in a broader arena, particularly in neuroscience. More recently transfer entropy, an information-theoretic measure of time-directed information transfer between jointly dependent processes, has gained traction in a similarly wide field. While it has been recognized that the two concepts must be related, the exact relationship has until now not been formally described. Here we show that for Gaussian variables, Granger causality and transfer entropy are entirely equivalent, thus bridging autoregressive and information-theoretic approaches to data-driven causal inference.

The diversity effect in diagnostic reasoning.

PubMed

Rebitschek, Felix G; Krems, Josef F; Jahn, Georg

2016-07-01

Diagnostic reasoning draws on knowledge about effects and their potential causes. The causal-diversity effect in diagnostic reasoning normatively depends on the distribution of effects in causal structures, and thus, a psychological diversity effect could indicate whether causally structured knowledge is used in evaluating the probability of a diagnosis, if the effect were to covary with manipulations of causal structures. In four experiments, participants dealt with a quasi-medical scenario presenting symptom sets (effects) that consistently suggested a specified diagnosis (cause). The probability that the diagnosis was correct had to be rated for two opposed symptom sets that differed with regard to the symptoms' positions (proximal or diverse) in the causal structure that was initially acquired. The causal structure linking the diagnosis to the symptoms and the base rate of the diagnosis were manipulated to explore whether the diagnosis was rated as more probable for diverse than for proximal symptoms when alternative causations were more plausible (e.g., because of a lower base rate of the diagnosis in question). The results replicated the causal diversity effect in diagnostic reasoning across these conditions, but no consistent effects of structure and base rate variations were observed. Diversity effects computed in causal Bayesian networks are presented, illustrating the consequences of the structure manipulations and corroborating that a diversity effect across the different experimental manipulations is normatively justified. The observed diversity effects presumably resulted from shortcut reasoning about the possibilities of alternative causation.

Principal stratification in causal inference.

PubMed

Frangakis, Constantine E; Rubin, Donald B

2002-03-01

Many scientific problems require that treatment comparisons be adjusted for posttreatment variables, but the estimands underlying standard methods are not causal effects. To address this deficiency, we propose a general framework for comparing treatments adjusting for posttreatment variables that yields principal effects based on principal stratification. Principal stratification with respect to a posttreatment variable is a cross-classification of subjects defined by the joint potential values of that posttreatment variable tinder each of the treatments being compared. Principal effects are causal effects within a principal stratum. The key property of principal strata is that they are not affected by treatment assignment and therefore can be used just as any pretreatment covariate. such as age category. As a result, the central property of our principal effects is that they are always causal effects and do not suffer from the complications of standard posttreatment-adjusted estimands. We discuss briefly that such principal causal effects are the link between three recent applications with adjustment for posttreatment variables: (i) treatment noncompliance, (ii) missing outcomes (dropout) following treatment noncompliance. and (iii) censoring by death. We then attack the problem of surrogate or biomarker endpoints, where we show, using principal causal effects, that all current definitions of surrogacy, even when perfectly true, do not generally have the desired interpretation as causal effects of treatment on outcome. We go on to forrmulate estimands based on principal stratification and principal causal effects and show their superiority.

End-Cretaceous extinction in Antarctica linked to both Deccan volcanism and meteorite impact via climate change

PubMed Central

Petersen, Sierra V.; Dutton, Andrea; Lohmann, Kyger C.

2016-01-01

The cause of the end-Cretaceous (KPg) mass extinction is still debated due to difficulty separating the influences of two closely timed potential causal events: eruption of the Deccan Traps volcanic province and impact of the Chicxulub meteorite. Here we combine published extinction patterns with a new clumped isotope temperature record from a hiatus-free, expanded KPg boundary section from Seymour Island, Antarctica. We document a 7.8±3.3 °C warming synchronous with the onset of Deccan Traps volcanism and a second, smaller warming at the time of meteorite impact. Local warming may have been amplified due to simultaneous disappearance of continental or sea ice. Intra-shell variability indicates a possible reduction in seasonality after Deccan eruptions began, continuing through the meteorite event. Species extinction at Seymour Island occurred in two pulses that coincide with the two observed warming events, directly linking the end-Cretaceous extinction at this site to both volcanic and meteorite events via climate change. PMID:27377632

Genomic atlas of the human plasma proteome.

PubMed

Sun, Benjamin B; Maranville, Joseph C; Peters, James E; Stacey, David; Staley, James R; Blackshaw, James; Burgess, Stephen; Jiang, Tao; Paige, Ellie; Surendran, Praveen; Oliver-Williams, Clare; Kamat, Mihir A; Prins, Bram P; Wilcox, Sheri K; Zimmerman, Erik S; Chi, An; Bansal, Narinder; Spain, Sarah L; Wood, Angela M; Morrell, Nicholas W; Bradley, John R; Janjic, Nebojsa; Roberts, David J; Ouwehand, Willem H; Todd, John A; Soranzo, Nicole; Suhre, Karsten; Paul, Dirk S; Fox, Caroline S; Plenge, Robert M; Danesh, John; Runz, Heiko; Butterworth, Adam S

2018-06-01

Although plasma proteins have important roles in biological processes and are the direct targets of many drugs, the genetic factors that control inter-individual variation in plasma protein levels are not well understood. Here we characterize the genetic architecture of the human plasma proteome in healthy blood donors from the INTERVAL study. We identify 1,927 genetic associations with 1,478 proteins, a fourfold increase on existing knowledge, including trans associations for 1,104 proteins. To understand the consequences of perturbations in plasma protein levels, we apply an integrated approach that links genetic variation with biological pathway, disease, and drug databases. We show that protein quantitative trait loci overlap with gene expression quantitative trait loci, as well as with disease-associated loci, and find evidence that protein biomarkers have causal roles in disease using Mendelian randomization analysis. By linking genetic factors to diseases via specific proteins, our analyses highlight potential therapeutic targets, opportunities for matching existing drugs with new disease indications, and potential safety concerns for drugs under development.

End-Cretaceous extinction in Antarctica linked to both Deccan volcanism and meteorite impact via climate change.

PubMed

Petersen, Sierra V; Dutton, Andrea; Lohmann, Kyger C

2016-07-05

The cause of the end-Cretaceous (KPg) mass extinction is still debated due to difficulty separating the influences of two closely timed potential causal events: eruption of the Deccan Traps volcanic province and impact of the Chicxulub meteorite. Here we combine published extinction patterns with a new clumped isotope temperature record from a hiatus-free, expanded KPg boundary section from Seymour Island, Antarctica. We document a 7.8±3.3 °C warming synchronous with the onset of Deccan Traps volcanism and a second, smaller warming at the time of meteorite impact. Local warming may have been amplified due to simultaneous disappearance of continental or sea ice. Intra-shell variability indicates a possible reduction in seasonality after Deccan eruptions began, continuing through the meteorite event. Species extinction at Seymour Island occurred in two pulses that coincide with the two observed warming events, directly linking the end-Cretaceous extinction at this site to both volcanic and meteorite events via climate change.

End-Cretaceous extinction in Antarctica linked to both Deccan volcanism and meteorite impact via climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petersen, Sierra V.; Dutton, Andrea; Lohmann, Kyger C.

2016-07-01

The cause of the end-Cretaceous (KPg) mass extinction is still debated due to difficulty separating the influences of two closely timed potential causal events: eruption of the Deccan Traps volcanic province and impact of the Chicxulub meteorite. Here we combine published extinction patterns with a new clumped isotope temperature record from a hiatus-free, expanded KPg boundary section from Seymour Island, Antarctica. We document a 7.8+/-3.3 °C warming synchronous with the onset of Deccan Traps volcanism and a second, smaller warming at the time of meteorite impact. Local warming may have been amplified due to simultaneous disappearance of continental or sea ice. Intra-shell variability indicates a possible reduction in seasonality after Deccan eruptions began, continuing through the meteorite event. Species extinction at Seymour Island occurred in two pulses that coincide with the two observed warming events, directly linking the end-Cretaceous extinction at this site to both volcanic and meteorite events via climate change.

Longitudinal Associations Between Experienced Racial Discrimination and Depressive Symptoms in African American Adolescents

PubMed Central

English, Devin; Lambert, Sharon F.; Ialongo, Nicholas S.

2015-01-01

While recent evidence has indicated that experienced racial discrimination is associated with increased depressive symptoms for African American adolescents, most studies rely on cross-sectional and short-term longitudinal research designs. As a result, the direction and persistence of this association across time remains unclear. This article examines longitudinal associations between experienced racial discrimination and depressive symptoms among a community sample of African American adolescents (N = 504) from Grade 7 to Grade 10, while controlling for multiple alternative causal pathways. Sex was tested as a moderator of the link between experienced racial discrimination and later depressive symptoms. Structural equation modeling revealed that experienced racial discrimination was positively associated with depressive symptoms 1 year later across all waves of measurement. The link between experienced racial discrimination at Grade 7 and depressive symptoms at Grade 8 was stronger for females than males. Findings highlight the role of experienced racial discrimination in the etiology of depressive symptoms for African Americans across early adolescence. PMID:24188037

Causal mediation analysis with a binary outcome and multiple continuous or ordinal mediators: Simulations and application to an alcohol intervention.

PubMed

Nguyen, Trang Quynh; Webb-Vargas, Yenny; Koning, Ina M; Stuart, Elizabeth A

We investigate a method to estimate the combined effect of multiple continuous/ordinal mediators on a binary outcome: 1) fit a structural equation model with probit link for the outcome and identity/probit link for continuous/ordinal mediators, 2) predict potential outcome probabilities, and 3) compute natural direct and indirect effects. Step 2 involves rescaling the latent continuous variable underlying the outcome to address residual mediator variance/covariance. We evaluate the estimation of risk-difference- and risk-ratio-based effects (RDs, RRs) using the ML, WLSMV and Bayes estimators in Mplus. Across most variations in path-coefficient and mediator-residual-correlation signs and strengths, and confounding situations investigated, the method performs well with all estimators, but favors ML/WLSMV for RDs with continuous mediators, and Bayes for RRs with ordinal mediators. Bayes outperforms WLSMV/ML regardless of mediator type when estimating RRs with small potential outcome probabilities and in two other special cases. An adolescent alcohol prevention study is used for illustration.

Longitudinal associations between experienced racial discrimination and depressive symptoms in African American adolescents.

PubMed

English, Devin; Lambert, Sharon F; Ialongo, Nicholas S

2014-04-01

While recent evidence has indicated that experienced racial discrimination is associated with increased depressive symptoms for African American adolescents, most studies rely on cross-sectional and short-term longitudinal research designs. As a result, the direction and persistence of this association across time remains unclear. This article examines longitudinal associations between experienced racial discrimination and depressive symptoms among a community sample of African American adolescents (N = 504) from Grade 7 to Grade 10, while controlling for multiple alternative causal pathways. Sex was tested as a moderator of the link between experienced racial discrimination and later depressive symptoms. Structural equation modeling revealed that experienced racial discrimination was positively associated with depressive symptoms 1 year later across all waves of measurement. The link between experienced racial discrimination at Grade 7 and depressive symptoms at Grade 8 was stronger for females than males. Findings highlight the role of experienced racial discrimination in the etiology of depressive symptoms for African Americans across early adolescence. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

The role of shared neural activations, mirror neurons, and morality in empathy--a critical comment.

PubMed

Lamm, Claus; Majdandžić, Jasminka

2015-01-01

In the last decade, the phenomenon of empathy has received widespread attention by the field of social neuroscience. This has provided fresh insights for theoretical models of empathy, and substantially influenced the academic and public conceptions about this complex social skill. The present paper highlights three key issues which are often linked to empathy, but which at the same time might obscure our understanding of it. These issues are: (1) shared neural activations and whether these can be interpreted as evidence for simulation accounts of empathy; (2) the causal link of empathy to our presumed mirror neuron system; and (3) the question whether increasing empathy will result in better moral decisions and behaviors. The aim of our review is to provide the basis for critically evaluating our current understanding of empathy, and its public reception, and to inspire new research directions. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

A Comparative Study of Computer-Aided Clinical Diagnosis of Birth Defects.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-01-21

SUPPRESSIBLE HYPERPARATHYROIDISM TYPE NEONATAL FAMILIAL HYPOCHONDROPLASIA HYPOGLYCEMIA TYPE FAMILIAL NEONATAL HYPOGLYCEMIA TYPE LEUCINE INDUCED...disease. There are also causal links between disease nodes. These are unidirectional links indicating that one disease can cause the other. These links...contains the finding and has no superior which does.4 If f5 was then entered, D8 and D9 would quality to be evoked. This would cause D1 to be deactivated

Analysis of electromagnetic forces and causality in electron microscopy.

PubMed

Reyes-Coronado, Alejandro; Ortíz-Solano, Carlos Gael; Zabala, Nerea; Rivacoba, Alberto; Esquivel-Sirvent, Raúl

2018-09-01

The non-physical effects on the transverse momentum transfer from fast electrons to gold nanoparticles associated to the use of non-causal dielectric functions are studied. A direct test of the causality based on the surface Kramers-Kronig relations is presented. This test is applied to the different dielectric function used to describe gold nanostructures in electron microscopy. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

The Teacher, the Physician and the Person: Exploring Causal Connections between Teaching Performance and Role Model Types Using Directed Acyclic Graphs

PubMed Central

Boerebach, Benjamin C. M.; Lombarts, Kiki M. J. M. H.; Scherpbier, Albert J. J.; Arah, Onyebuchi A.

2013-01-01

Background In fledgling areas of research, evidence supporting causal assumptions is often scarce due to the small number of empirical studies conducted. In many studies it remains unclear what impact explicit and implicit causal assumptions have on the research findings; only the primary assumptions of the researchers are often presented. This is particularly true for research on the effect of faculty’s teaching performance on their role modeling. Therefore, there is a need for robust frameworks and methods for transparent formal presentation of the underlying causal assumptions used in assessing the causal effects of teaching performance on role modeling. This study explores the effects of different (plausible) causal assumptions on research outcomes. Methods This study revisits a previously published study about the influence of faculty’s teaching performance on their role modeling (as teacher-supervisor, physician and person). We drew eight directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) to visually represent different plausible causal relationships between the variables under study. These DAGs were subsequently translated into corresponding statistical models, and regression analyses were performed to estimate the associations between teaching performance and role modeling. Results The different causal models were compatible with major differences in the magnitude of the relationship between faculty’s teaching performance and their role modeling. Odds ratios for the associations between teaching performance and the three role model types ranged from 31.1 to 73.6 for the teacher-supervisor role, from 3.7 to 15.5 for the physician role, and from 2.8 to 13.8 for the person role. Conclusions Different sets of assumptions about causal relationships in role modeling research can be visually depicted using DAGs, which are then used to guide both statistical analysis and interpretation of results. Since study conclusions can be sensitive to different causal assumptions, results should be interpreted in the light of causal assumptions made in each study. PMID:23936020

Causal discovery and inference: concepts and recent methodological advances.

PubMed

Spirtes, Peter; Zhang, Kun

This paper aims to give a broad coverage of central concepts and principles involved in automated causal inference and emerging approaches to causal discovery from i.i.d data and from time series. After reviewing concepts including manipulations, causal models, sample predictive modeling, causal predictive modeling, and structural equation models, we present the constraint-based approach to causal discovery, which relies on the conditional independence relationships in the data, and discuss the assumptions underlying its validity. We then focus on causal discovery based on structural equations models, in which a key issue is the identifiability of the causal structure implied by appropriately defined structural equation models: in the two-variable case, under what conditions (and why) is the causal direction between the two variables identifiable? We show that the independence between the error term and causes, together with appropriate structural constraints on the structural equation, makes it possible. Next, we report some recent advances in causal discovery from time series. Assuming that the causal relations are linear with nonGaussian noise, we mention two problems which are traditionally difficult to solve, namely causal discovery from subsampled data and that in the presence of confounding time series. Finally, we list a number of open questions in the field of causal discovery and inference.

Does architectural lighting contribute to breast cancer?

PubMed Central

Figueiro, Mariana G; Rea, Mark S; Bullough, John D

2006-01-01

Objectives There is a growing interest in the role that light plays on nocturnal melatonin production and, perhaps thereby, the incidence of breast cancer in modern societies. The direct causal relationships in this logical chain have not, however, been fully established and the weakest link is an inability to quantitatively specify architectural lighting as a stimulus for the circadian system. The purpose of the present paper is to draw attention to this weakness. Data Sources and Extraction We reviewed the literature on the relationship between melatonin, light at night, and cancer risk in humans and tumor growth in animals. More specifically, we focused on the impact of light on nocturnal melatonin suppression in humans and on the applicability of these data to women in real-life situations. Photometric measurement data from the lighted environment of women at work and at home is also reported. Data Synthesis The literature review and measurement data demonstrate that more quantitative knowledge is needed about circadian light exposures actually experienced by women and girls in modern societies. Conclusion Without such quantitative knowledge, limited insights can be gained about the causal relationship between melatonin and the etiology of breast cancer from epidemiological studies and from parametric studies using animal models. PMID:16901343

Endocrine Disruptors

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Law and science combine in the estimation of risks from endocrine disruptors (EDs) and actions for their regulation. For both, dose–response models are the causal link between exposure and probability (or percentage change) of adverse response. The evidence that leads to either regulations or judicial decrees is affected by uncertainty and limited knowledge, raising difficult policy issues that we enumerate and discuss. In the United States, some courts have dealt with EDs, but causation based on animal studies has been a stumbling block for plaintiffs seeking compensation, principally because those courts opt for epidemiological evidence. The European Union (EU) has several regulatory tools and ongoing research on the risks associated with bisphenol A, under the Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals (REACH) Regulation and other regulations or directives. The integration of a vast (in kind and in scope) number of research papers into a statement of causation for either policy or to satisfy legal requirements, in both the United States and the EU, relies on experts. We outline the discursive dilemma and issues that may affect consensus-based results and a Bayesian causal approach that accounts for the evolution of information, yielding both value of information and flexibility associated with public choices. PMID:26740809

Intelligence and obesity: which way does the causal direction go?

PubMed

Kanazawa, Satoshi

2014-10-01

The negative association between intelligence and obesity has been well established, but the direction of causality is unclear. The present review surveys the recent studies on the topic with both cross-sectional and longitudinal data in an attempt to establish causality. Most studies in the area employ cross-sectional data and conclude (without empirical justification) that obesity causes intellectual impairment. The few studies that employ prospectively longitudinal data, however, uniformly conclude that lower intelligence leads to BMI gains and obesity. A close examination of three such studies, from three different nations (Sweden, New Zealand, and the UK), leaves little doubt that the causality runs from low intelligence to obesity. The conclusion in previous studies that obesity impairs cognitive function stems from improper interpretation of a negative association between intelligence and obesity from cross-sectional studies. Results from the analyses of high-quality, population-based, prospectively longitudinal data firmly establish that low intelligence increases the chances of obesity.

Economic Pressure and Marital Quality: An Illustration of the Method Variance Problem in the Causal Modeling of Family Processes.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lorenz, Frederick O.; And Others

1991-01-01

Examined effects of method variance on models linking family economic pressure, marital quality, and expressions of hostility and warmth among 76 couples. Observer reports yielded results linking economic pressure to marital quality indirectly through interactional processes such as hostility. Self-reports or spouses' reports made it difficult to…

Solving Mendelian Mysteries: The Non-coding Genome May Hold the Key.

PubMed

Valente, Enza Maria; Bhatia, Kailash P

2018-02-22

Despite revolutionary advances in sequencing approaches, many mendelian disorders have remained unexplained. In this issue of Cell, Aneichyk et al. combine genomic and cell-type-specific transcriptomic data to causally link a non-coding mutation in the ubiquitous TAF1 gene to X-linked dystonia-parkinsonism. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

ASSESSING CAUSALITY AND PERSISTENCE IN ASSOCIATIONS BETWEEN FAMILY DINNERS AND ADOLESCENT WELL-BEING

PubMed Central

Musick, Kelly; Meier, Ann

2013-01-01

Adolescents who share meals with their parents score better on a range of well-being indicators. Using three waves of the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent Health (N = 17,977), we assessed the causal nature of these associations and the extent to which they persist into adulthood. We examined links between family dinners and adolescent mental health, substance use, and delinquency at wave 1, accounting for detailed measures of the family environment to test whether family meals simply proxy for other family processes. As a more stringent test of causality, we estimated fixed effects models from waves 1 and 2, and we used wave 3 to explore persistence in the influence of family dinners. Associations between family dinners and adolescent well-being remained significant, net of controls, and some held up to stricter tests of causality. Beyond indirect benefits via earlier well-being, however, family dinners associations did not persist into adulthood. PMID:23794750

ASSESSING CAUSALITY AND PERSISTENCE IN ASSOCIATIONS BETWEEN FAMILY DINNERS AND ADOLESCENT WELL-BEING.

PubMed

Musick, Kelly; Meier, Ann

2012-06-01

Adolescents who share meals with their parents score better on a range of well-being indicators. Using three waves of the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent Health ( N = 17,977), we assessed the causal nature of these associations and the extent to which they persist into adulthood. We examined links between family dinners and adolescent mental health, substance use, and delinquency at wave 1, accounting for detailed measures of the family environment to test whether family meals simply proxy for other family processes. As a more stringent test of causality, we estimated fixed effects models from waves 1 and 2, and we used wave 3 to explore persistence in the influence of family dinners. Associations between family dinners and adolescent well-being remained significant, net of controls, and some held up to stricter tests of causality. Beyond indirect benefits via earlier well-being, however, family dinners associations did not persist into adulthood.

The relationship between pollutant emissions, renewable energy, nuclear energy and GDP: empirical evidence from 18 developed and developing countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ben Mbarek, Mounir; Saidi, Kais; Amamri, Mounira

2018-07-01

This document investigates the causal relationship between nuclear energy (NE), pollutant emissions (CO2 emissions), gross domestic product (GDP) and renewable energy (RE) using dynamic panel data models for a global panel consisting of 18 countries (developed and developing) covering the 1990-2013 period. Our results indicate that there is a co-integration between variables. The unit root test suggests that all the variables are stationary in first differences. The paper further examines the link using the Granger causality analysis of vector error correction model, which indicates a unidirectional relationship running from GDP per capita to pollutant emissions for the developed and developing countries. However, there is a unidirectional causality from GDP per capita to RE in the short and long run. This finding confirms the conservation hypothesis. Similarly, there is no causality between NE and GDP per capita.

Chapter 15: Disease Gene Prioritization

PubMed Central

Bromberg, Yana

2013-01-01

Disease-causing aberrations in the normal function of a gene define that gene as a disease gene. Proving a causal link between a gene and a disease experimentally is expensive and time-consuming. Comprehensive prioritization of candidate genes prior to experimental testing drastically reduces the associated costs. Computational gene prioritization is based on various pieces of correlative evidence that associate each gene with the given disease and suggest possible causal links. A fair amount of this evidence comes from high-throughput experimentation. Thus, well-developed methods are necessary to reliably deal with the quantity of information at hand. Existing gene prioritization techniques already significantly improve the outcomes of targeted experimental studies. Faster and more reliable techniques that account for novel data types are necessary for the development of new diagnostics, treatments, and cure for many diseases. PMID:23633938

Frontal parietal control network regulates the anti-correlated default and dorsal attention networks.

PubMed

Gao, Wei; Lin, Weili

2012-01-01

Recent reports demonstrate the anti-correlated behaviors between the default (DF) and the dorsal attention (DA) networks. We aimed to investigate the roles of the frontal parietal control (FPC) network in regulating the two anti-correlated networks through three experimental conditions, including resting, continuous self-paced/attended sequential finger tapping (FT), and natural movie watching (MW), respectively. The two goal-directed tasks were chosen to engage either one of the two competing networks-FT for DA whereas MW for default. We hypothesized that FPC will selectively augment/suppress either network depending on how the task targets the specific network; FPC will positively correlate with the target network, but negatively correlate with the network anti-correlated with the target network. We further hypothesized that significant causal links from FPC to both DA and DF are present during all three experimental conditions, supporting the initiative regulating role of FPC over the two opposing systems. Consistent with our hypotheses, FPC exhibited a significantly higher positive correlation with DA (P = 0.0095) whereas significantly more negative correlation with default (P = 0.0025) during FT when compared to resting. Completely opposite to that observed during FT, the FPC was significantly anti-correlated with DA (P = 2.1e-6) whereas positively correlated with default (P = 0.0035) during MW. Furthermore, extensive causal links from FPC to both DA and DF were observed across all three experimental states. Together, our results strongly support the notion that the FPC regulates the anti-correlated default and DA networks. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Frontal Parietal Control Network Regulates the Anti-Correlated Default and Dorsal Attention Networks

PubMed Central

Gao, Wei; Lin, Weili

2011-01-01

Recent reports demonstrate the anti-correlated behaviors between the default and the dorsal attention (DA) networks. We aimed to investigate the roles of the frontal parietal control (FPC) network in regulating the two anti-correlated networks through three experimental conditions, including resting, continuous self-paced/attended sequential finger tapping (FT), and natural movie watching (MW), respectively. The two goal-directed tasks were chosen to engage either one of the two competing networks—FT for DA whereas MW for default. We hypothesized that FPC will selectively augment/suppress either network depending on how the task targets the specific network; FPC will positively correlate with the target network, but negatively correlate with the network anti-correlated with the target network. We further hypothesized that significant causal links from FPC to both DA and DF are present during all three experimental conditions, supporting the initiative regulating role of FPC over the two opposing systems. Consistent with our hypotheses, FPC exhibited a significantly higher positive correlation with DA (P = 0.0095) whereas significantly more negative correlation with default (P = 0.0025) during FT when compared to resting. Completely opposite to that observed during FT, the FPC was significantly anti-correlated with DA (P = 2.1e-6) whereas positively correlated with default (P = 0.0035) during MW. Furthermore, extensive causal links from FPC to both DA and DF were observed across all three experimental states. Together, our results strongly support the notion that the FPC regulates the anti-correlated default and DA networks. PMID:21391263

CHAIN RECONNECTIONS OBSERVED IN SYMPATHETIC ERUPTIONS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Joshi, Navin Chandra; Magara, Tetsuya; Schmieder, Brigitte

2016-04-01

The nature of various plausible causal links between sympathetic events is still a controversial issue. In this work, we present multiwavelength observations of sympathetic eruptions, associated flares, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) occurring on 2013 November 17 in two close active regions. Two filaments, i.e., F1 and F2, are observed in between the active regions. Successive magnetic reconnections, caused for different reasons (flux cancellation, shear, and expansion) have been identified during the whole event. The first reconnection occurred during the first eruption via flux cancellation between the sheared arcades overlying filament F2, creating a flux rope and leading to themore » first double-ribbon solar flare. During this phase, we observed the eruption of overlying arcades and coronal loops, which leads to the first CME. The second reconnection is believed to occur between the expanding flux rope of F2 and the overlying arcades of filament F1. We suggest that this reconnection destabilized the equilibrium of filament F1, which further facilitated its eruption. The third stage of reconnection occurred in the wake of the erupting filament F1 between the legs of the overlying arcades. This may create a flux rope and the second double-ribbon flare and a second CME. The fourth reconnection was between the expanding arcades of the erupting filament F1 and the nearby ambient field, which produced the bi-directional plasma flows both upward and downward. Observations and a nonlinear force-free field extrapolation confirm the possibility of reconnection and the causal link between the magnetic systems.« less

An algorithm for direct causal learning of influences on patient outcomes.

PubMed

Rathnam, Chandramouli; Lee, Sanghoon; Jiang, Xia

2017-01-01

This study aims at developing and introducing a new algorithm, called direct causal learner (DCL), for learning the direct causal influences of a single target. We applied it to both simulated and real clinical and genome wide association study (GWAS) datasets and compared its performance to classic causal learning algorithms. The DCL algorithm learns the causes of a single target from passive data using Bayesian-scoring, instead of using independence checks, and a novel deletion algorithm. We generate 14,400 simulated datasets and measure the number of datasets for which DCL correctly and partially predicts the direct causes. We then compare its performance with the constraint-based path consistency (PC) and conservative PC (CPC) algorithms, the Bayesian-score based fast greedy search (FGS) algorithm, and the partial ancestral graphs algorithm fast causal inference (FCI). In addition, we extend our comparison of all five algorithms to both a real GWAS dataset and real breast cancer datasets over various time-points in order to observe how effective they are at predicting the causal influences of Alzheimer's disease and breast cancer survival. DCL consistently outperforms FGS, PC, CPC, and FCI in discovering the parents of the target for the datasets simulated using a simple network. Overall, DCL predicts significantly more datasets correctly (McNemar's test significance: p<0.0001) than any of the other algorithms for these network types. For example, when assessing overall performance (simple and complex network results combined), DCL correctly predicts approximately 1400 more datasets than the top FGS method, 1600 more datasets than the top CPC method, 4500 more datasets than the top PC method, and 5600 more datasets than the top FCI method. Although FGS did correctly predict more datasets than DCL for the complex networks, and DCL correctly predicted only a few more datasets than CPC for these networks, there is no significant difference in performance between these three algorithms for this network type. However, when we use a more continuous measure of accuracy, we find that all the DCL methods are able to better partially predict more direct causes than FGS and CPC for the complex networks. In addition, DCL consistently had faster runtimes than the other algorithms. In the application to the real datasets, DCL identified rs6784615, located on the NISCH gene, and rs10824310, located on the PRKG1 gene, as direct causes of late onset Alzheimer's disease (LOAD) development. In addition, DCL identified ER category as a direct predictor of breast cancer mortality within 5 years, and HER2 status as a direct predictor of 10-year breast cancer mortality. These predictors have been identified in previous studies to have a direct causal relationship with their respective phenotypes, supporting the predictive power of DCL. When the other algorithms discovered predictors from the real datasets, these predictors were either also found by DCL or could not be supported by previous studies. Our results show that DCL outperforms FGS, PC, CPC, and FCI in almost every case, demonstrating its potential to advance causal learning. Furthermore, our DCL algorithm effectively identifies direct causes in the LOAD and Metabric GWAS datasets, which indicates its potential for clinical applications. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Is receptor oligomerization causally linked to activation of the EGF receptor kinase?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rintoul, D. A.; Spooner, B. S. (Principal Investigator)

1992-01-01

Transduction of a signal from an extracellular peptide hormone to produce an intracellular response is often mediated by a cell surface receptor, which is usually a glycoprotein. The secondary intracellular signal(s) generated after hormone binding to the receptor have been intensively studied. The nature of the primary signal generated by ligand binding to the receptor is understood less well in most cases. The particular case of the epidermal growth factor (EGF) receptor is analyzed, and evidence for or against two dissimilar models of primary signal transduction is reviewed. Evidence for the most widely accepted current model is found to be unconvincing. Evidence for the other model is substantial but indirect; a direct test of this model remains to be done.

Viral Perturbations of Host Networks Reflect Disease Etiology

PubMed Central

Dricot, Amélie; Padi, Megha; Byrdsong, Danielle; Franchi, Rachel; Lee, Deok-Sun; Rozenblatt-Rosen, Orit; Mar, Jessica C.; Calderwood, Michael A.; Baldwin, Amy; Zhao, Bo; Santhanam, Balaji; Braun, Pascal; Simonis, Nicolas; Huh, Kyung-Won; Hellner, Karin; Grace, Miranda; Chen, Alyce; Rubio, Renee; Marto, Jarrod A.; Christakis, Nicholas A.; Kieff, Elliott; Roth, Frederick P.; Roecklein-Canfield, Jennifer; DeCaprio, James A.; Cusick, Michael E.; Quackenbush, John; Hill, David E.; Münger, Karl; Vidal, Marc; Barabási, Albert-László

2012-01-01

Many human diseases, arising from mutations of disease susceptibility genes (genetic diseases), are also associated with viral infections (virally implicated diseases), either in a directly causal manner or by indirect associations. Here we examine whether viral perturbations of host interactome may underlie such virally implicated disease relationships. Using as models two different human viruses, Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) and human papillomavirus (HPV), we find that host targets of viral proteins reside in network proximity to products of disease susceptibility genes. Expression changes in virally implicated disease tissues and comorbidity patterns cluster significantly in the network vicinity of viral targets. The topological proximity found between cellular targets of viral proteins and disease genes was exploited to uncover a novel pathway linking HPV to Fanconi anemia. PMID:22761553

Paradoxical Behavior of Granger Causality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Witt, Annette; Battaglia, Demian; Gail, Alexander

2013-03-01

Granger causality is a standard tool for the description of directed interaction of network components and is popular in many scientific fields including econometrics, neuroscience and climate science. For time series that can be modeled as bivariate auto-regressive processes we analytically derive an expression for spectrally decomposed Granger Causality (SDGC) and show that this quantity depends only on two out of four groups of model parameters. Then we present examples of such processes whose SDGC expose paradoxical behavior in the sense that causality is high for frequency ranges with low spectral power. For avoiding misinterpretations of Granger causality analysis we propose to complement it by partial spectral analysis. Our findings are illustrated by an example from brain electrophysiology. Finally, we draw implications for the conventional definition of Granger causality. Bernstein Center for Computational Neuroscience Goettingen

Experimental test of nonlocal causality

PubMed Central

Ringbauer, Martin; Giarmatzi, Christina; Chaves, Rafael; Costa, Fabio; White, Andrew G.; Fedrizzi, Alessandro

2016-01-01

Explaining observations in terms of causes and effects is central to empirical science. However, correlations between entangled quantum particles seem to defy such an explanation. This implies that some of the fundamental assumptions of causal explanations have to give way. We consider a relaxation of one of these assumptions, Bell’s local causality, by allowing outcome dependence: a direct causal influence between the outcomes of measurements of remote parties. We use interventional data from a photonic experiment to bound the strength of this causal influence in a two-party Bell scenario, and observational data from a Bell-type inequality test for the considered models. Our results demonstrate the incompatibility of quantum mechanics with a broad class of nonlocal causal models, which includes Bell-local models as a special case. Recovering a classical causal picture of quantum correlations thus requires an even more radical modification of our classical notion of cause and effect. PMID:27532045

Experimental test of nonlocal causality.

PubMed

Ringbauer, Martin; Giarmatzi, Christina; Chaves, Rafael; Costa, Fabio; White, Andrew G; Fedrizzi, Alessandro

2016-08-01

Explaining observations in terms of causes and effects is central to empirical science. However, correlations between entangled quantum particles seem to defy such an explanation. This implies that some of the fundamental assumptions of causal explanations have to give way. We consider a relaxation of one of these assumptions, Bell's local causality, by allowing outcome dependence: a direct causal influence between the outcomes of measurements of remote parties. We use interventional data from a photonic experiment to bound the strength of this causal influence in a two-party Bell scenario, and observational data from a Bell-type inequality test for the considered models. Our results demonstrate the incompatibility of quantum mechanics with a broad class of nonlocal causal models, which includes Bell-local models as a special case. Recovering a classical causal picture of quantum correlations thus requires an even more radical modification of our classical notion of cause and effect.

Unobserved time effects confound the identification of climate change impacts.

PubMed

Auffhammer, Maximilian; Vincent, Jeffrey R

2012-07-24

A recent study by Feng et al. [Feng S, Krueger A, Oppenheimer M (2010) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107:14257-14262] in PNAS reported statistical evidence of a weather-driven causal effect of crop yields on human migration from Mexico to the United States. We show that this conclusion is based on a different statistical model than the one stated in the paper. When we correct for this mistake, there is no evidence of a causal link.

Do capuchin monkeys (Cebus apella) diagnose causal relations in the absence of a direct reward?

PubMed

Edwards, Brian J; Rottman, Benjamin M; Shankar, Maya; Betzler, Riana; Chituc, Vladimir; Rodriguez, Ricardo; Silva, Liara; Wibecan, Leah; Widness, Jane; Santos, Laurie R

2014-01-01

We adapted a method from developmental psychology to explore whether capuchin monkeys (Cebus apella) would place objects on a "blicket detector" machine to diagnose causal relations in the absence of a direct reward. Across five experiments, monkeys could place different objects on the machine and obtain evidence about the objects' causal properties based on whether each object "activated" the machine. In Experiments 1-3, monkeys received both audiovisual cues and a food reward whenever the machine activated. In these experiments, monkeys spontaneously placed objects on the machine and succeeded at discriminating various patterns of statistical evidence. In Experiments 4 and 5, we modified the procedure so that in the learning trials, monkeys received the audiovisual cues when the machine activated, but did not receive a food reward. In these experiments, monkeys failed to test novel objects in the absence of an immediate food reward, even when doing so could provide critical information about how to obtain a reward in future test trials in which the food reward delivery device was reattached. The present studies suggest that the gap between human and animal causal cognition may be in part a gap of motivation. Specifically, we propose that monkey causal learning is motivated by the desire to obtain a direct reward, and that unlike humans, monkeys do not engage in learning for learning's sake.

Do Capuchin Monkeys (Cebus apella) Diagnose Causal Relations in the Absence of a Direct Reward?

PubMed Central

Edwards, Brian J.; Rottman, Benjamin M.; Shankar, Maya; Betzler, Riana; Chituc, Vladimir; Rodriguez, Ricardo; Silva, Liara; Wibecan, Leah; Widness, Jane; Santos, Laurie R.

2014-01-01

We adapted a method from developmental psychology [1] to explore whether capuchin monkeys (Cebus apella) would place objects on a “blicket detector” machine to diagnose causal relations in the absence of a direct reward. Across five experiments, monkeys could place different objects on the machine and obtain evidence about the objects’ causal properties based on whether each object “activated” the machine. In Experiments 1–3, monkeys received both audiovisual cues and a food reward whenever the machine activated. In these experiments, monkeys spontaneously placed objects on the machine and succeeded at discriminating various patterns of statistical evidence. In Experiments 4 and 5, we modified the procedure so that in the learning trials, monkeys received the audiovisual cues when the machine activated, but did not receive a food reward. In these experiments, monkeys failed to test novel objects in the absence of an immediate food reward, even when doing so could provide critical information about how to obtain a reward in future test trials in which the food reward delivery device was reattached. The present studies suggest that the gap between human and animal causal cognition may be in part a gap of motivation. Specifically, we propose that monkey causal learning is motivated by the desire to obtain a direct reward, and that unlike humans, monkeys do not engage in learning for learning’s sake. PMID:24586347

DNA Methylation and BMI: Investigating Identified Methylation Sites at HIF3A in a Causal Framework

PubMed Central

Richmond, Rebecca C.; Ward, Mary E.; Fraser, Abigail; Lyttleton, Oliver; McArdle, Wendy L.; Ring, Susan M.; Gaunt, Tom R.; Lawlor, Debbie A.; Davey Smith, George; Relton, Caroline L.

2016-01-01

Multiple differentially methylated sites and regions associated with adiposity have now been identified in large-scale cross-sectional studies. We tested for replication of associations between previously identified CpG sites at HIF3A and adiposity in ∼1,000 mother-offspring pairs from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). Availability of methylation and adiposity measures at multiple time points, as well as genetic data, allowed us to assess the temporal associations between adiposity and methylation and to make inferences regarding causality and directionality. Overall, our results were discordant with those expected if HIF3A methylation has a causal effect on BMI and provided more evidence for causality in the reverse direction (i.e., an effect of BMI on HIF3A methylation). These results are based on robust evidence from longitudinal analyses and were also partially supported by Mendelian randomization analysis, although this latter analysis was underpowered to detect a causal effect of BMI on HIF3A methylation. Our results also highlight an apparent long-lasting intergenerational influence of maternal BMI on offspring methylation at this locus, which may confound associations between own adiposity and HIF3A methylation. Further work is required to replicate and uncover the mechanisms underlying the direct and intergenerational effect of adiposity on DNA methylation. PMID:26861784

Interpreting findings from Mendelian randomization using the MR-Egger method.

PubMed

Burgess, Stephen; Thompson, Simon G

2017-05-01

Mendelian randomization-Egger (MR-Egger) is an analysis method for Mendelian randomization using summarized genetic data. MR-Egger consists of three parts: (1) a test for directional pleiotropy, (2) a test for a causal effect, and (3) an estimate of the causal effect. While conventional analysis methods for Mendelian randomization assume that all genetic variants satisfy the instrumental variable assumptions, the MR-Egger method is able to assess whether genetic variants have pleiotropic effects on the outcome that differ on average from zero (directional pleiotropy), as well as to provide a consistent estimate of the causal effect, under a weaker assumption-the InSIDE (INstrument Strength Independent of Direct Effect) assumption. In this paper, we provide a critical assessment of the MR-Egger method with regard to its implementation and interpretation. While the MR-Egger method is a worthwhile sensitivity analysis for detecting violations of the instrumental variable assumptions, there are several reasons why causal estimates from the MR-Egger method may be biased and have inflated Type 1 error rates in practice, including violations of the InSIDE assumption and the influence of outlying variants. The issues raised in this paper have potentially serious consequences for causal inferences from the MR-Egger approach. We give examples of scenarios in which the estimates from conventional Mendelian randomization methods and MR-Egger differ, and discuss how to interpret findings in such cases.

Electrical Stimulation in Hippocampus and Entorhinal Cortex Impairs Spatial and Temporal Memory.

PubMed

Goyal, Abhinav; Miller, Jonathan; Watrous, Andrew J; Lee, Sang Ah; Coffey, Tom; Sperling, Michael R; Sharan, Ashwini; Worrell, Gregory; Berry, Brent; Lega, Bradley; Jobst, Barbara C; Davis, Kathryn A; Inman, Cory; Sheth, Sameer A; Wanda, Paul A; Ezzyat, Youssef; Das, Sandhitsu R; Stein, Joel; Gorniak, Richard; Jacobs, Joshua

2018-05-09

The medial temporal lobe (MTL) is widely implicated in supporting episodic memory and navigation, but its precise functional role in organizing memory across time and space remains elusive. Here we examine the specific cognitive processes implemented by MTL structures (hippocampus and entorhinal cortex) to organize memory by using electrical brain stimulation, leveraging its ability to establish causal links between brain regions and features of behavior. We studied neurosurgical patients of both sexes who performed spatial-navigation and verbal-episodic memory tasks while brain stimulation was applied in various regions during learning. During the verbal memory task, stimulation in the MTL disrupted the temporal organization of encoded memories such that items learned with stimulation tended to be recalled in a more randomized order. During the spatial task, MTL stimulation impaired subjects' abilities to remember items located far away from boundaries. These stimulation effects were specific to the MTL. Our findings thus provide the first causal demonstration in humans of the specific memory processes that are performed by the MTL to encode when and where events occurred. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Numerous studies have implicated the medial temporal lobe (MTL) in encoding spatial and temporal memories, but they have not been able to causally demonstrate the nature of the cognitive processes by which this occurs in real-time. Electrical brain stimulation is able to demonstrate causal links between a brain region and a given function with high temporal precision. By examining behavior in a memory task as subjects received MTL stimulation, we provide the first causal evidence demonstrating the role of the MTL in organizing the spatial and temporal aspects of episodic memory. Copyright © 2018 the authors 0270-6474/18/384471-11$15.00/0.

Pairwise Measures of Causal Direction in the Epidemiology of Sleep Problems and Depression

PubMed Central

Rosenström, Tom; Jokela, Markus; Puttonen, Sampsa; Hintsanen, Mirka; Pulkki-Råback, Laura; Viikari, Jorma S.; Raitakari, Olli T.; Keltikangas-Järvinen, Liisa

2012-01-01

Depressive mood is often preceded by sleep problems, suggesting that they increase the risk of depression. Sleep problems can also reflect prodromal symptom of depression, thus temporal precedence alone is insufficient to confirm causality. The authors applied recently introduced statistical causal-discovery algorithms that can estimate causality from cross-sectional samples in order to infer the direction of causality between the two sets of symptoms from a novel perspective. Two common-population samples were used; one from the Young Finns study (690 men and 997 women, average age 37.7 years, range 30–45), and another from the Wisconsin Longitudinal study (3101 men and 3539 women, average age 53.1 years, range 52–55). These included three depression questionnaires (two in Young Finns data) and two sleep problem questionnaires. Three different causality estimates were constructed for each data set, tested in a benchmark data with a (practically) known causality, and tested for assumption violations using simulated data. Causality algorithms performed well in the benchmark data and simulations, and a prediction was drawn for future empirical studies to confirm: for minor depression/dysphoria, sleep problems cause significantly more dysphoria than dysphoria causes sleep problems. The situation may change as depression becomes more severe, or more severe levels of symptoms are evaluated; also, artefacts due to severe depression being less well presented in the population data than minor depression may intervene the estimation for depression scales that emphasize severe symptoms. The findings are consistent with other emerging epidemiological and biological evidence. PMID:23226400

The cost of making an eye movement: A direct link between visual working memory and saccade execution.

PubMed

Schut, Martijn J; Van der Stoep, Nathan; Postma, Albert; Van der Stigchel, Stefan

2017-06-01

To facilitate visual continuity across eye movements, the visual system must presaccadically acquire information about the future foveal image. Previous studies have indicated that visual working memory (VWM) affects saccade execution. However, the reverse relation, the effect of saccade execution on VWM load is less clear. To investigate the causal link between saccade execution and VWM, we combined a VWM task and a saccade task. Participants were instructed to remember one, two, or three shapes and performed either a No Saccade-, a Single Saccade- or a Dual (corrective) Saccade-task. The results indicate that items stored in VWM are reported less accurately if a single saccade-or a dual saccade-task is performed next to retaining items in VWM. Importantly, the loss of response accuracy for items retained in VWM by performing a saccade was similar to committing an extra item to VWM. In a second experiment, we observed no cost of executing a saccade for auditory working memory performance, indicating that executing a saccade exclusively taxes the VWM system. Our results suggest that the visual system presaccadically stores the upcoming retinal image, which has a similar VWM load as committing one extra item to memory and interferes with stored VWM content. After the saccade, the visual system can retrieve this item from VWM to evaluate saccade accuracy. Our results support the idea that VWM is a system which is directly linked to saccade execution and promotes visual continuity across saccades.

General Theory and Algorithms for the Non-Casual Inversion, Slewing and Control of Space-Based Articulated Structures

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-10-01

Structures: Simultaneous Trajectory Tracking and Vibration Reduction ... 10 3 . Buckling Control of a Flexible Beam Using Piezoelectric Actuators...bounded solution for the inverse dynamic torque has to be non-causal. Bayo, et. al. [ 3 ], extended the inverse dynamics to planar, multiple-link systems...presented by &ayo and Moulin [4] for the single link system, with provisions for 3 extension to multiple link systems. An equivalent time domain approach for

Causal Analysis After Haavelmo

PubMed Central

Heckman, James; Pinto, Rodrigo

2014-01-01

Haavelmo's seminal 1943 and 1944 papers are the first rigorous treatment of causality. In them, he distinguished the definition of causal parameters from their identification. He showed that causal parameters are defined using hypothetical models that assign variation to some of the inputs determining outcomes while holding all other inputs fixed. He thus formalized and made operational Marshall's (1890) ceteris paribus analysis. We embed Haavelmo's framework into the recursive framework of Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) used in one influential recent approach to causality (Pearl, 2000) and in the related literature on Bayesian nets (Lauritzen, 1996). We compare the simplicity of an analysis of causality based on Haavelmo's methodology with the complex and nonintuitive approach used in the causal literature of DAGs—the “do-calculus” of Pearl (2009). We discuss the severe limitations of DAGs and in particular of the do-calculus of Pearl in securing identification of economic models. We extend our framework to consider models for simultaneous causality, a central contribution of Haavelmo. In general cases, DAGs cannot be used to analyze models for simultaneous causality, but Haavelmo's approach naturally generalizes to cover them. PMID:25729123

Cannabis and psychosis: what is the link?

PubMed

Ben Amar, Mohamed; Potvin, Stéphane

2007-06-01

Growing evidence supports the hypothesis that cannabis consumption is a risk factor for the development of psychotic symptoms. Nonetheless, controversy remains about the causal nature of the association. This review takes the debate further through a critical appraisal of the evidence. An electronic search was performed, allowing to identify 622 studies published until June 1st 2005. Longitudinal studies and literature reviews were selected if they addressed specifically the issues of the cannabis/psychosis relationship or possible mechanisms involved. Ten epidemiological studies were relevant: three supported a causal relationship between cannabis use and diagnosed psychosis; five suggested that chronic cannabis intake increases the frequency of psychotic symptoms, but not of diagnosed psychosis; and two showed no causal relationship. Potential neurobiological mechanisms were also identified, involving dopamine, endocannabinoids, and brain growth factors. Although there is evidence that cannabis use increases the risk of developing psychotic symptoms, the causal nature of this association remains unclear. Contributing factors include heavy consumption, length and early age of exposure, and psychotic vulnerability. This conclusion should be mitigated by uncertainty arising from cannabis use assessment, psychosis measurement, reverse causality and control of residual confounding.

Deconstructing events: The neural bases for space, time, and causality

PubMed Central

Kranjec, Alexander; Cardillo, Eileen R.; Lehet, Matthew; Chatterjee, Anjan

2013-01-01

Space, time, and causality provide a natural structure for organizing our experience. These abstract categories allow us to think relationally in the most basic sense; understanding simple events require one to represent the spatial relations among objects, the relative durations of actions or movements, and links between causes and effects. The present fMRI study investigates the extent to which the brain distinguishes between these fundamental conceptual domains. Participants performed a one-back task with three conditions of interest (SPACE, TIME and CAUSALITY). Each condition required comparing relations between events in a simple verbal narrative. Depending on the condition, participants were instructed to either attend to the spatial, temporal, or causal characteristics of events, but between participants, each particular event relation appeared in all three conditions. Contrasts compared neural activity during each condition against the remaining two and revealed how thinking about events is deconstructed neurally. Space trials recruited neural areas traditionally associated with visuospatial processing, primarily bilateral frontal and occipitoparietal networks. Causality trials activated areas previously found to underlie causal thinking and thematic role assignment, such as left medial frontal, and left middle temporal gyri, respectively. Causality trials also produced activations in SMA, caudate, and cerebellum; cortical and subcortical regions associated with the perception of time at different timescales. The TIME contrast however, produced no significant effects. This pattern, indicating negative results for TIME trials, but positive effects for CAUSALITY trials in areas important for time perception, motivated additional overlap analyses to further probe relations between domains. The results of these analyses suggest a closer correspondence between time and causality than between time and space. PMID:21861674

Estimating the Relation between Health and Education: What Do We Know and What Do We Need to Know?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eide, Eric R.; Showalter, Mark H.

2011-01-01

The empirical link between education and health is firmly established. Numerous studies document that higher levels of education are positively associated with longer life and better health throughout the lifespan. But measuring the causal links between education and health is a more challenging task. Aside from the typical econometric concerns…

Kernel canonical-correlation Granger causality for multiple time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Guorong; Duan, Xujun; Liao, Wei; Gao, Qing; Chen, Huafu

2011-04-01

Canonical-correlation analysis as a multivariate statistical technique has been applied to multivariate Granger causality analysis to infer information flow in complex systems. It shows unique appeal and great superiority over the traditional vector autoregressive method, due to the simplified procedure that detects causal interaction between multiple time series, and the avoidance of potential model estimation problems. However, it is limited to the linear case. Here, we extend the framework of canonical correlation to include the estimation of multivariate nonlinear Granger causality for drawing inference about directed interaction. Its feasibility and effectiveness are verified on simulated data.

Testing the Causal Direction of Mediation Effects in Randomized Intervention Studies.

PubMed

Wiedermann, Wolfgang; Li, Xintong; von Eye, Alexander

2018-05-21

In a recent update of the standards for evidence in research on prevention interventions, the Society of Prevention Research emphasizes the importance of evaluating and testing the causal mechanism through which an intervention is expected to have an effect on an outcome. Mediation analysis is commonly applied to study such causal processes. However, these analytic tools are limited in their potential to fully understand the role of theorized mediators. For example, in a design where the treatment x is randomized and the mediator (m) and the outcome (y) are measured cross-sectionally, the causal direction of the hypothesized mediator-outcome relation is not uniquely identified. That is, both mediation models, x → m → y or x → y → m, may be plausible candidates to describe the underlying intervention theory. As a third explanation, unobserved confounders can still be responsible for the mediator-outcome association. The present study introduces principles of direction dependence which can be used to empirically evaluate these competing explanatory theories. We show that, under certain conditions, third higher moments of variables (i.e., skewness and co-skewness) can be used to uniquely identify the direction of a mediator-outcome relation. Significance procedures compatible with direction dependence are introduced and results of a simulation study are reported that demonstrate the performance of the tests. An empirical example is given for illustrative purposes and a software implementation of the proposed method is provided in SPSS.

Directionality analysis on functional magnetic resonance imaging during motor task using Granger causality.

PubMed

Anwar, A R; Muthalib, M; Perrey, S; Galka, A; Granert, O; Wolff, S; Deuschl, G; Raethjen, J; Heute, U; Muthuraman, M

2012-01-01

Directionality analysis of signals originating from different parts of brain during motor tasks has gained a lot of interest. Since brain activity can be recorded over time, methods of time series analysis can be applied to medical time series as well. Granger Causality is a method to find a causal relationship between time series. Such causality can be referred to as a directional connection and is not necessarily bidirectional. The aim of this study is to differentiate between different motor tasks on the basis of activation maps and also to understand the nature of connections present between different parts of the brain. In this paper, three different motor tasks (finger tapping, simple finger sequencing, and complex finger sequencing) are analyzed. Time series for each task were extracted from functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data, which have a very good spatial resolution and can look into the sub-cortical regions of the brain. Activation maps based on fMRI images show that, in case of complex finger sequencing, most parts of the brain are active, unlike finger tapping during which only limited regions show activity. Directionality analysis on time series extracted from contralateral motor cortex (CMC), supplementary motor area (SMA), and cerebellum (CER) show bidirectional connections between these parts of the brain. In case of simple finger sequencing and complex finger sequencing, the strongest connections originate from SMA and CMC, while connections originating from CER in either direction are the weakest ones in magnitude during all paradigms.

Job Dissatisfaction and Coronary Heart Disease

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Friis, Robert

1976-01-01

Based on the psychosocial factor that life dissatisfactions may be associated with physical illnesses, this research examines the relationship between job dissatisfaction and its causal link to premature death from heart disease. (Author/RK)

Fertility and Female Employment: Problems of Causal Direction.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cramer, James C.

1980-01-01

Considers multicollinearity in nonrecursive models, misspecification of models, discrepancies between attitudes and behavior, and differences between static and dynamic models as explanations for contradictory information on the causal relationship between fertility and female employment. Finds that initially fertility affects employment but that,…

In Silico Detection of Sequence Variations Modifying Transcriptional Regulation

PubMed Central

Andersen, Malin C; Engström, Pär G; Lithwick, Stuart; Arenillas, David; Eriksson, Per; Lenhard, Boris; Wasserman, Wyeth W; Odeberg, Jacob

2008-01-01

Identification of functional genetic variation associated with increased susceptibility to complex diseases can elucidate genes and underlying biochemical mechanisms linked to disease onset and progression. For genes linked to genetic diseases, most identified causal mutations alter an encoded protein sequence. Technological advances for measuring RNA abundance suggest that a significant number of undiscovered causal mutations may alter the regulation of gene transcription. However, it remains a challenge to separate causal genetic variations from linked neutral variations. Here we present an in silico driven approach to identify possible genetic variation in regulatory sequences. The approach combines phylogenetic footprinting and transcription factor binding site prediction to identify variation in candidate cis-regulatory elements. The bioinformatics approach has been tested on a set of SNPs that are reported to have a regulatory function, as well as background SNPs. In the absence of additional information about an analyzed gene, the poor specificity of binding site prediction is prohibitive to its application. However, when additional data is available that can give guidance on which transcription factor is involved in the regulation of the gene, the in silico binding site prediction improves the selection of candidate regulatory polymorphisms for further analyses. The bioinformatics software generated for the analysis has been implemented as a Web-based application system entitled RAVEN (regulatory analysis of variation in enhancers). The RAVEN system is available at http://www.cisreg.ca for all researchers interested in the detection and characterization of regulatory sequence variation. PMID:18208319

A splice variant in the ACSL5 gene relates migraine with fatty acid activation in mitochondria

PubMed Central

Matesanz, Fuencisla; Fedetz, María; Barrionuevo, Cristina; Karaky, Mohamad; Catalá-Rabasa, Antonio; Potenciano, Victor; Bello-Morales, Raquel; López-Guerrero, Jose-Antonio; Alcina, Antonio

2016-01-01

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in migraine are providing the molecular basis of this heterogeneous disease, but the understanding of its aetiology is still incomplete. Although some biomarkers have currently been accepted for migraine, large amount of studies for identifying new ones is needed. The migraine-associated variant rs12355831:A>G (P=2 × 10−6), described in a GWAS of the International Headache Genetic Consortium, is localized in a non-coding sequence with unknown function. We sought to identify the causal variant and the genetic mechanism involved in the migraine risk. To this end, we integrated data of RNA sequences from the Genetic European Variation in Health and Disease (GEUVADIS) and genotypes from 1000 GENOMES of 344 lymphoblastoid cell lines (LCLs), to determine the expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) in the region. We found that the migraine-associated variant belongs to a linkage disequilibrium block associated with the expression of an acyl-coenzyme A synthetase 5 (ACSL5) transcript lacking exon 20 (ACSL5-Δ20). We showed by exon-skipping assay a direct causality of rs2256368-G in the exon 20 skipping of approximately 20 to 40% of ACSL5 RNA molecules. In conclusion, we identified the functional variant (rs2256368:A>G) affecting ACSL5 exon 20 skipping, as a causal factor linked to the migraine-associated rs12355831:A>G, suggesting that the activation of long-chain fatty acids by the spliced ACSL5-Δ20 molecules, a mitochondrial located enzyme, is involved in migraine pathology. PMID:27189022

A new pressure ulcer conceptual framework.

PubMed

Coleman, Susanne; Nixon, Jane; Keen, Justin; Wilson, Lyn; McGinnis, Elizabeth; Dealey, Carol; Stubbs, Nikki; Farrin, Amanda; Dowding, Dawn; Schols, Jos M G A; Cuddigan, Janet; Berlowitz, Dan; Jude, Edward; Vowden, Peter; Schoonhoven, Lisette; Bader, Dan L; Gefen, Amit; Oomens, Cees W J; Nelson, E Andrea

2014-10-01

This paper discusses the critical determinants of pressure ulcer development and proposes a new pressure ulcer conceptual framework. Recent work to develop and validate a new evidence-based pressure ulcer risk assessment framework was undertaken. This formed part of a Pressure UlceR Programme Of reSEarch (RP-PG-0407-10056), funded by the National Institute for Health Research. The foundation for the risk assessment component incorporated a systematic review and a consensus study that highlighted the need to propose a new conceptual framework. Discussion Paper. The new conceptual framework links evidence from biomechanical, physiological and epidemiological evidence, through use of data from a systematic review (search conducted March 2010), a consensus study (conducted December 2010-2011) and an international expert group meeting (conducted December 2011). A new pressure ulcer conceptual framework incorporating key physiological and biomechanical components and their impact on internal strains, stresses and damage thresholds is proposed. Direct and key indirect causal factors suggested in a theoretical causal pathway are mapped to the physiological and biomechanical components of the framework. The new proposed conceptual framework provides the basis for understanding the critical determinants of pressure ulcer development and has the potential to influence risk assessment guidance and practice. It could also be used to underpin future research to explore the role of individual risk factors conceptually and operationally. By integrating existing knowledge from epidemiological, physiological and biomechanical evidence, a theoretical causal pathway and new conceptual framework are proposed with potential implications for practice and research. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Advanced Nursing Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A new pressure ulcer conceptual framework

PubMed Central

Coleman, Susanne; Nixon, Jane; Keen, Justin; Wilson, Lyn; McGinnis, Elizabeth; Dealey, Carol; Stubbs, Nikki; Farrin, Amanda; Dowding, Dawn; Schols, Jos MGA; Cuddigan, Janet; Berlowitz, Dan; Jude, Edward; Vowden, Peter; Schoonhoven, Lisette; Bader, Dan L; Gefen, Amit; Oomens, Cees WJ; Nelson, E Andrea

2014-01-01

Aim This paper discusses the critical determinants of pressure ulcer development and proposes a new pressure ulcer conceptual framework. Background Recent work to develop and validate a new evidence-based pressure ulcer risk assessment framework was undertaken. This formed part of a Pressure UlceR Programme Of reSEarch (RP-PG-0407-10056), funded by the National Institute for Health Research. The foundation for the risk assessment component incorporated a systematic review and a consensus study that highlighted the need to propose a new conceptual framework. Design Discussion Paper. Data Sources The new conceptual framework links evidence from biomechanical, physiological and epidemiological evidence, through use of data from a systematic review (search conducted March 2010), a consensus study (conducted December 2010–2011) and an international expert group meeting (conducted December 2011). Implications for Nursing A new pressure ulcer conceptual framework incorporating key physiological and biomechanical components and their impact on internal strains, stresses and damage thresholds is proposed. Direct and key indirect causal factors suggested in a theoretical causal pathway are mapped to the physiological and biomechanical components of the framework. The new proposed conceptual framework provides the basis for understanding the critical determinants of pressure ulcer development and has the potential to influence risk assessment guidance and practice. It could also be used to underpin future research to explore the role of individual risk factors conceptually and operationally. Conclusion By integrating existing knowledge from epidemiological, physiological and biomechanical evidence, a theoretical causal pathway and new conceptual framework are proposed with potential implications for practice and research. PMID:24684197

Causality, mediation and time: a dynamic viewpoint

PubMed Central

Aalen, Odd O; Røysland, Kjetil; Gran, Jon Michael; Ledergerber, Bruno

2012-01-01

Summary. Time dynamics are often ignored in causal modelling. Clearly, causality must operate in time and we show how this corresponds to a mechanistic, or system, understanding of causality. The established counterfactual definitions of direct and indirect effects depend on an ability to manipulate the mediator which may not hold in practice, and we argue that a mechanistic view may be better. Graphical representations based on local independence graphs and dynamic path analysis are used to facilitate communication as well as providing an overview of the dynamic relations ‘at a glance’. The relationship between causality as understood in a mechanistic and in an interventionist sense is discussed. An example using data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study is presented. PMID:23193356

"How readers understand causal and correlational expressions used in news headlines": Correction to Adams et al. (2016).

PubMed

2017-03-01

Reports an error in "How Readers Understand Causal and Correlational Expressions Used in News Headlines" by Rachel C. Adams, Petroc Sumner, Solveiga Vivian-Griffiths, Amy Barrington, Andrew Williams, Jacky Boivin, Christopher D. Chambers and Lewis Bott ( Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied , Advanced Online Publication, Nov 3, 2016, np). In the article, the fourth author was inadvertently omitted from the advance online version. Also, the second paragraph of the author note should have included the following: "Amy Barrington contributed to the design and data collection for Experiments 2 and 3. We thank the following undergraduate students for contributions to Experiment 1 and pilot work leading up to the project: Laura Benjamin, Cecily Donnelly, Cameron Dunlop, Rebecca Emerson, Rose Fisher, Laura Jones, Olivia Manship, Hannah McCarthy, Naomi Scott, Eliza Walwyn-Jones, Leanne Whelan, and Joe Wilton." All versions of this article have been corrected. (The following abstract of the original article appeared in record 2016-52933-001.) Science-related news stories can have a profound impact on how the public make decisions. The current study presents 4 experiments that examine how participants understand scientific expressions used in news headlines. The expressions concerned causal and correlational relationships between variables (e.g., "being breast fed makes children behave better"). Participants rated or ranked headlines according to the extent that one variable caused the other. Our results suggest that participants differentiate between 3 distinct categories of relationship: direct cause statements (e.g., "makes," "increases"), which were interpreted as the most causal; can cause statements (e.g., "can make," "can increase"); and moderate cause statements (e.g., "might cause," "linked," "associated with"), but do not consistently distinguish within the last group despite the logical distinction between cause and association. On the basis of this evidence, we make recommendations for appropriately communicating cause and effect in news headlines. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Influence of climate cycles on grapevine domestication and ancient migrations in Eurasia.

PubMed

Mariani, Luigi; Cola, Gabriele; Maghradze, David; Failla, Osvaldo; Zavatti, Franco

2018-09-01

The objective of this work is to investigate the Holocenic climate cycles that may have influenced the domestication of grapevine in the Subcaucasian area and its subsequent spread in Eurasia. The analysis covered the longitudinal belt ranging from the Iberian Peninsula to Japan, seen as the preferential pathway for the Holocenic spread of grapevine and many other crops in Eurasia. Spectral analysis was considered as the criterion of investigation and the Holocenic cycles were analyzed considering different geochemical and biological proxies, of which seven are directly referred to vine. In this context the relation of the abovementioned proxies with spectral peaks of possible causal factors like Solar activity (SA), North Atlantic oceanic factors (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation - AMO and North Atlantic Oscillation - NAO), and subtropical oceanic factors (El Nino Southern Oscillation - ENSO) was also analyzed. In order to acquire a sufficiently wide number of proxies sensitive to the causal factors, we referred to a latitudinal belt wider than the one colonized by vine, also acquiring proxy from the Scandinavian area, notoriously susceptible to North Atlantic forcings. The analysis of the proxy spectral peaks, considering 20 classes with a 50-years step in the 0-1000 years range, showed that the 50% of the classes have a higher frequency of peaks at East than West, the 20% a higher frequency at West than East and the 10% an equal frequency, showing the efficiency of the propagation of Western signals towards the center of Eurasia. The search of the causal factors spectral peaks in the proxy series showed that AMO, NAO and SA acted with a certain regularity on the entire belt investigated both latitudinally and longitudinally, while spectral peaks linked to ENSO underwent a considerable attenuation moving northward. Finally, the specific analysis on viticultural proxies showed common peaks with causal factors. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On the Inference of Functional Circadian Networks Using Granger Causality

PubMed Central

Pourzanjani, Arya; Herzog, Erik D.; Petzold, Linda R.

2015-01-01

Being able to infer one way direct connections in an oscillatory network such as the suprachiastmatic nucleus (SCN) of the mammalian brain using time series data is difficult but crucial to understanding network dynamics. Although techniques have been developed for inferring networks from time series data, there have been no attempts to adapt these techniques to infer directional connections in oscillatory time series, while accurately distinguishing between direct and indirect connections. In this paper an adaptation of Granger Causality is proposed that allows for inference of circadian networks and oscillatory networks in general called Adaptive Frequency Granger Causality (AFGC). Additionally, an extension of this method is proposed to infer networks with large numbers of cells called LASSO AFGC. The method was validated using simulated data from several different networks. For the smaller networks the method was able to identify all one way direct connections without identifying connections that were not present. For larger networks of up to twenty cells the method shows excellent performance in identifying true and false connections; this is quantified by an area-under-the-curve (AUC) 96.88%. We note that this method like other Granger Causality-based methods, is based on the detection of high frequency signals propagating between cell traces. Thus it requires a relatively high sampling rate and a network that can propagate high frequency signals. PMID:26413748

Exploring the causal machinery behind sex ratios at birth: does hepatitis B play a role?

PubMed

Hamoudi, Amar

2010-01-01

The causal machinery underlying sex determination is directly relevant to many questions relating gender and family composition to social and economic outcomes. In recent work, Oster highlighted a correlation between parental hepatitis B carrier status and sex of the child. One of her analyses went further, speaking directly to causality. That analysis appeared to have answered an important question that had remained unresolved in medical and biological literatures—namely, does chronic infection with hepatitis B cause male‐skewed sex ratios at birth? Oster’s creative empirical analysis appeared to suggest that it does; however, in this article I reassess the result and present evidence that, at the very least, the question remains open. Further investigation into questions around the causal machinery of sex determination is warranted in the social science literature, as well as in that of biology and medicine. However, my results suggest that it is extremely unlikely that chronic hepatitis B infection plays a biologically significant role.

A Kernel Embedding-Based Approach for Nonstationary Causal Model Inference.

PubMed

Hu, Shoubo; Chen, Zhitang; Chan, Laiwan

2018-05-01

Although nonstationary data are more common in the real world, most existing causal discovery methods do not take nonstationarity into consideration. In this letter, we propose a kernel embedding-based approach, ENCI, for nonstationary causal model inference where data are collected from multiple domains with varying distributions. In ENCI, we transform the complicated relation of a cause-effect pair into a linear model of variables of which observations correspond to the kernel embeddings of the cause-and-effect distributions in different domains. In this way, we are able to estimate the causal direction by exploiting the causal asymmetry of the transformed linear model. Furthermore, we extend ENCI to causal graph discovery for multiple variables by transforming the relations among them into a linear nongaussian acyclic model. We show that by exploiting the nonstationarity of distributions, both cause-effect pairs and two kinds of causal graphs are identifiable under mild conditions. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data are conducted to justify the efficacy of ENCI over major existing methods.

Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder Symptoms and Low Educational Achievement: Evidence Supporting A Causal Hypothesis.

PubMed

de Zeeuw, Eveline L; van Beijsterveldt, Catharina E M; Ehli, Erik A; de Geus, Eco J C; Boomsma, Dorret I

2017-05-01

Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) and educational achievement are negatively associated in children. Here we test the hypothesis that there is a direct causal effect of ADHD on educational achievement. The causal effect is tested in a genetically sensitive design to exclude the possibility of confounding by a third factor (e.g. genetic pleiotropy) and by comparing educational achievement and secondary school career in children with ADHD who take or do not take methylphenidate. Data on ADHD symptoms, educational achievement and methylphenidate usage were available in a primary school sample of ~10,000 12-year-old twins from the Netherlands Twin Register. A substantial group also had longitudinal data at ages 7-12 years. ADHD symptoms were cross-sectionally and longitudinally, associated with lower educational achievement at age 12. More ADHD symptoms predicted a lower-level future secondary school career at age 14-16. In both the cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses, testing the direct causal effect of ADHD on educational achievement, while controlling for genetic and environmental factors, revealed an association between ADHD symptoms and educational achievement independent of genetic and environmental pleiotropy. These findings were confirmed in MZ twin intra-pair differences models, twins with more ADHD symptoms scored lower on educational achievement than their co-twins. Furthermore, children with ADHD medication, scored significantly higher on the educational achievement test than children with ADHD who did not use medication. Taken together, the results are consistent with a direct causal effect of ADHD on educational achievement.

Normative and descriptive accounts of the influence of power and contingency on causal judgement.

PubMed

Perales, José C; Shanks, David R

2003-08-01

The power PC theory (Cheng, 1997) is a normative account of causal inference, which predicts that causal judgements are based on the power p of a potential cause, where p is the cause-effect contingency normalized by the base rate of the effect. In three experiments we demonstrate that both cause-effect contingency and effect base-rate independently affect estimates in causal learning tasks. In Experiment 1, causal strength judgements were directly related to power p in a task in which the effect base-rate was manipulated across two positive and two negative contingency conditions. In Experiments 2 and 3 contingency manipulations affected causal estimates in several situations in which power p was held constant, contrary to the power PC theory's predictions. This latter effect cannot be explained by participants' conflation of reliability and causal strength, as Experiment 3 demonstrated independence of causal judgements and confidence. From a descriptive point of view, the data are compatible with Pearce's (1987) model, as well as with several other judgement rules, but not with the Rescorla-Wagner (Rescorla & Wagner, 1972) or power PC models.

Reasoning about Causal Relationships: Inferences on Causal Networks

PubMed Central

Rottman, Benjamin Margolin; Hastie, Reid

2013-01-01

Over the last decade, a normative framework for making causal inferences, Bayesian Probabilistic Causal Networks, has come to dominate psychological studies of inference based on causal relationships. The following causal networks—[X→Y→Z, X←Y→Z, X→Y←Z]—supply answers for questions like, “Suppose both X and Y occur, what is the probability Z occurs?” or “Suppose you intervene and make Y occur, what is the probability Z occurs?” In this review, we provide a tutorial for how normatively to calculate these inferences. Then, we systematically detail the results of behavioral studies comparing human qualitative and quantitative judgments to the normative calculations for many network structures and for several types of inferences on those networks. Overall, when the normative calculations imply that an inference should increase, judgments usually go up; when calculations imply a decrease, judgments usually go down. However, two systematic deviations appear. First, people’s inferences violate the Markov assumption. For example, when inferring Z from the structure X→Y→Z, people think that X is relevant even when Y completely mediates the relationship between X and Z. Second, even when people’s inferences are directionally consistent with the normative calculations, they are often not as sensitive to the parameters and the structure of the network as they should be. We conclude with a discussion of productive directions for future research. PMID:23544658

A causal role for right frontopolar cortex in directed, but not random, exploration

PubMed Central

Zajkowski, Wojciech K; Kossut, Malgorzata

2017-01-01

The explore-exploit dilemma occurs anytime we must choose between exploring unknown options for information and exploiting known resources for reward. Previous work suggests that people use two different strategies to solve the explore-exploit dilemma: directed exploration, driven by information seeking, and random exploration, driven by decision noise. Here, we show that these two strategies rely on different neural systems. Using transcranial magnetic stimulation to inhibit the right frontopolar cortex, we were able to selectively inhibit directed exploration while leaving random exploration intact. This suggests a causal role for right frontopolar cortex in directed, but not random, exploration and that directed and random exploration rely on (at least partially) dissociable neural systems. PMID:28914605

Twelfth-Grade Student Work Intensity Linked to Later Educational Attainment and Substance Use: New Longitudinal Evidence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bachman, Jerald G.; Staff, Jeremy; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Schulenberg, John E.; Freedman-Doan, Peter

2011-01-01

Long hours of paid employment during high school have been linked to a variety of problem behaviors, but questions remain about whether and to what extent work intensity makes any causal contribution. This study addresses those questions by focusing on how 12th-grade work intensity is associated with substance use and educational attainment in the…

Diagnostic nomenclature for foetal alcohol spectrum disorders: the continuing challenge of causality.

PubMed

Miller, A R

2013-11-01

Prenatal alcohol exposure is a risk factor for neurologically based cognitive and adaptive disability. Diagnostic nomenclature for prenatally exposed children with cognitive and adaptive disability who lack features for foetal alcohol syndrome (FAS) or partial FAS includes the terms alcohol-related neurodevelopmental disorder (ARND) and foetal alcohol spectrum disorder(s) (FASD). Although these terms are now widely used, this paper argues that both are problematic. ARND is flawed by unjustifiably turning a risk factor into a causal factor and shrouding the result in terminological ambiguity, while FASD is not appropriate as a clinical label, and its use as a proxy for ARND deflects critical attention from the causal inferencing that is integral to diagnosing children with an alcohol-related teratogenic condition. Existing nomenclature is at odds with logical and evidence-based diagnosing and also has implications for interpretation of epidemiological data. Diagnostic nomenclature that is not tightly linked to causal inference is preferable at the present stage of this field's development. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Causal nature of neighborhood deprivation on individual risk of coronary heart disease or ischemic stroke: A prospective national Swedish co-relative control study in men and women.

PubMed

Forsberg, Per-Ola; Ohlsson, Henrik; Sundquist, Kristina

2018-03-01

We studied the association between neighborhood socioeconomic status (SES) and incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD) or ischemic stroke in the total population and in full- and half-siblings to determine whether these associations are causal or a result from familial confounding. Data were retrieved from nationwide Swedish registers containing individual clinical data linked to neighborhood of residence. After adjustment for individual SES, the association between neighborhood SES and CHD showed no decrease with increasing genetic resemblance, particularly in women. This indicates that the association between neighborhood SES and CHD incidence is partially causal among women, which represents a novel finding. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Neural reactivations during sleep determine network credit assignment

PubMed Central

Gulati, Tanuj; Guo, Ling; Ramanathan, Dhakshin S.; Bodepudi, Anitha; Ganguly, Karunesh

2018-01-01

A fundamental goal of motor learning is to establish neural patterns that produce a desired behavioral outcome. It remains unclear how and when the nervous system solves this “credit–assignment” problem. Using neuroprosthetic learning where we could control the causal relationship between neurons and behavior, here we show that sleep–dependent processing is required for credit-assignment and the establishment of task-related functional connectivity reflecting the casual neuron-behavior relationship. Importantly, we found a strong link between the microstructure of sleep reactivations and credit assignment, with downscaling of non–causal activity. Strikingly, decoupling of spiking to slow–oscillations using optogenetic methods eliminated rescaling. Thus, our results suggest that coordinated firing during sleep plays an essential role in establishing sparse activation patterns that reflect the causal neuron–behavior relationship. PMID:28692062

Cointegration and causal linkages in fertilizer markets across different regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lahmiri, Salim

2017-04-01

Cointegration and causal linkages among five different fertilizer markets are investigated during low and high market regimes. The database includes prices of rock phosphate (RP), triple super phosphate (TSP), diammonium phosphate (DAP), urea, and potassium chloride (PC). It is found that fertilizer markets are closely linked to each other during low and high regimes; and, particularly during high regime (after 2007 international financial crisis). In addition, there is no evidence of bidirectional linear relationship between markets during low and high regime time periods. Furthermore, all significant linkages are only unidirectional. Moreover, some causality effects have emerged during high regime. Finally, the effect of an impulse during high regime time period persists longer and is stronger than the effect of an impulse during low regime time period (before 2007 international financial crisis).

COMPARATIVE IN VITRO CARDIAC TOXICITY OF PRIMARY COMBUSTION PARTICLES: IDENTIFICATION OF CAUSAL CONSTITUENTS AND MECHANISMS OF INJURY

EPA Science Inventory

Identification of causal particle characteristics and mechanisms of injury would allow linkage of particulate air pollution adverse health effects to sources. Research has examined the direct cardiovascular effects of air pollution particle constituents since previous studies dem...

A novel mutation in FRMD7 causing X-linked idiopathic congenital nystagmus in a large family

PubMed Central

He, Xiang; Gu, Feng; Wang, Yujing; Yan, Jinting; Zhang, Meng; Huang, Shangzhi

2008-01-01

Purpose To identify the gene responsible for causing an X-linked idiopathic congenital nystagmus (XLICN) in a six-generation Chinese family. Methods Forty-nine members of an XLICN family were recruited and examined after obtaining informed consent. Affected male individuals were genotyped with microsatellite markers around the FRMD7 locus. Mutations were comprehensively screened by direct sequencing using gene specific primers. An X-inactivation pattern was investigated by X chromosome methylation analysis. Results The patients showed phenotypes consistent with XLICN. Genotype analysis showed that male affected individuals in the family shared a common haplotype with the selected markers. Sequencing FRMD7 revealed a G>T transversion (c.812G>T) in exon 9, which caused a conservative substitution of Cys to Phe at codon 271 (p.C271F). This mutation co-segregated with all affected individuals and was present in the obligate, non-penetrant female carriers. However, the mutation was not observed in unaffected familial males or 400 control males. Females with the mutant gene could be affected or carrier and they shared the same inactivated X chromosome harboring the mutation in blood cells, which showed there is no clear causal link between X-inactivation pattern and phenotype. Conclusions We identified a novel mutation in FRMD7 and confirmed the role of this mutation in the pathogenesis of X-linked congenital nystagmus. PMID:18246032

Cross-lagged relations between mentoring received from supervisors and employee OCBs: Disentangling causal direction and identifying boundary conditions.

PubMed

Eby, Lillian T; Butts, Marcus M; Hoffman, Brian J; Sauer, Julia B

2015-07-01

Although mentoring has documented relationships with employee attitudes and outcomes of interest to organizations, neither the causal direction nor boundary conditions of the relationship between mentoring and organizational citizenship behaviors (OCBs) has been fully explored. On the basis of Social Learning Theory (SLT; Bandura, 1977, 1986), we predicted that mentoring received by supervisors would causally precede OCBs, rather than employee OCBs resulting in the receipt of more mentoring from supervisors. Results from cross-lagged data collected at 2 points in time from 190 intact supervisor-employee dyads supported our predictions; however, only for OCBs directed at individuals (OCB-Is) and not for OCBs directed at the organization (OCB-Os). Further supporting our theoretical rationale for expecting mentoring to precede OCBs, we found that coworker support operates as a substitute for mentoring in predicting OCB-Is. By contrast, no moderating effects were found for perceived organizational support. The results are discussed in terms of theoretical implications for mentoring and OCB research, as well as practical suggestions for enhancing employee citizenship behaviors. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Information Theory Broadens the Spectrum of Molecular Ecology and Evolution.

PubMed

Sherwin, W B; Chao, A; Jost, L; Smouse, P E

2017-12-01

Information or entropy analysis of diversity is used extensively in community ecology, and has recently been exploited for prediction and analysis in molecular ecology and evolution. Information measures belong to a spectrum (or q profile) of measures whose contrasting properties provide a rich summary of diversity, including allelic richness (q=0), Shannon information (q=1), and heterozygosity (q=2). We present the merits of information measures for describing and forecasting molecular variation within and among groups, comparing forecasts with data, and evaluating underlying processes such as dispersal. Importantly, information measures directly link causal processes and divergence outcomes, have straightforward relationship to allele frequency differences (including monotonicity that q=2 lacks), and show additivity across hierarchical layers such as ecology, behaviour, cellular processes, and nongenetic inheritance. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Causal analysis approaches in epidemiology].

PubMed

Dumas, O; Siroux, V; Le Moual, N; Varraso, R

2014-02-01

Epidemiological research is mostly based on observational studies. Whether such studies can provide evidence of causation remains discussed. Several causal analysis methods have been developed in epidemiology. This paper aims at presenting an overview of these methods: graphical models, path analysis and its extensions, and models based on the counterfactual approach, with a special emphasis on marginal structural models. Graphical approaches have been developed to allow synthetic representations of supposed causal relationships in a given problem. They serve as qualitative support in the study of causal relationships. The sufficient-component cause model has been developed to deal with the issue of multicausality raised by the emergence of chronic multifactorial diseases. Directed acyclic graphs are mostly used as a visual tool to identify possible confounding sources in a study. Structural equations models, the main extension of path analysis, combine a system of equations and a path diagram, representing a set of possible causal relationships. They allow quantifying direct and indirect effects in a general model in which several relationships can be tested simultaneously. Dynamic path analysis further takes into account the role of time. The counterfactual approach defines causality by comparing the observed event and the counterfactual event (the event that would have been observed if, contrary to the fact, the subject had received a different exposure than the one he actually received). This theoretical approach has shown limits of traditional methods to address some causality questions. In particular, in longitudinal studies, when there is time-varying confounding, classical methods (regressions) may be biased. Marginal structural models have been developed to address this issue. In conclusion, "causal models", though they were developed partly independently, are based on equivalent logical foundations. A crucial step in the application of these models is the formulation of causal hypotheses, which will be a basis for all methodological choices. Beyond this step, statistical analysis tools recently developed offer new possibilities to delineate complex relationships, in particular in life course epidemiology. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

EEG-Based Quantification of Cortical Current Density and Dynamic Causal Connectivity Generalized across Subjects Performing BCI-Monitored Cognitive Tasks

PubMed Central

Courellis, Hristos; Mullen, Tim; Poizner, Howard; Cauwenberghs, Gert; Iversen, John R.

2017-01-01

Quantification of dynamic causal interactions among brain regions constitutes an important component of conducting research and developing applications in experimental and translational neuroscience. Furthermore, cortical networks with dynamic causal connectivity in brain-computer interface (BCI) applications offer a more comprehensive view of brain states implicated in behavior than do individual brain regions. However, models of cortical network dynamics are difficult to generalize across subjects because current electroencephalography (EEG) signal analysis techniques are limited in their ability to reliably localize sources across subjects. We propose an algorithmic and computational framework for identifying cortical networks across subjects in which dynamic causal connectivity is modeled among user-selected cortical regions of interest (ROIs). We demonstrate the strength of the proposed framework using a “reach/saccade to spatial target” cognitive task performed by 10 right-handed individuals. Modeling of causal cortical interactions was accomplished through measurement of cortical activity using (EEG), application of independent component clustering to identify cortical ROIs as network nodes, estimation of cortical current density using cortically constrained low resolution electromagnetic brain tomography (cLORETA), multivariate autoregressive (MVAR) modeling of representative cortical activity signals from each ROI, and quantification of the dynamic causal interaction among the identified ROIs using the Short-time direct Directed Transfer function (SdDTF). The resulting cortical network and the computed causal dynamics among its nodes exhibited physiologically plausible behavior, consistent with past results reported in the literature. This physiological plausibility of the results strengthens the framework's applicability in reliably capturing complex brain functionality, which is required by applications, such as diagnostics and BCI. PMID:28566997

Disease causality extraction based on lexical semantics and document-clause frequency from biomedical literature.

PubMed

Lee, Dong-Gi; Shin, Hyunjung

2017-05-18

Recently, research on human disease network has succeeded and has become an aid in figuring out the relationship between various diseases. In most disease networks, however, the relationship between diseases has been simply represented as an association. This representation results in the difficulty of identifying prior diseases and their influence on posterior diseases. In this paper, we propose a causal disease network that implements disease causality through text mining on biomedical literature. To identify the causality between diseases, the proposed method includes two schemes: the first is the lexicon-based causality term strength, which provides the causal strength on a variety of causality terms based on lexicon analysis. The second is the frequency-based causality strength, which determines the direction and strength of causality based on document and clause frequencies in the literature. We applied the proposed method to 6,617,833 PubMed literature, and chose 195 diseases to construct a causal disease network. From all possible pairs of disease nodes in the network, 1011 causal pairs of 149 diseases were extracted. The resulting network was compared with that of a previous study. In terms of both coverage and quality, the proposed method showed outperforming results; it determined 2.7 times more causalities and showed higher correlation with associated diseases than the existing method. This research has novelty in which the proposed method circumvents the limitations of time and cost in applying all possible causalities in biological experiments and it is a more advanced text mining technique by defining the concepts of causality term strength.

Worry processes in patients with persecutory delusions.

PubMed

Startup, Helen; Pugh, Katherine; Dunn, Graham; Cordwell, Jacinta; Mander, Helen; Černis, Emma; Wingham, Gail; Shirvell, Katherine; Kingdon, David; Freeman, Daniel

2016-11-01

Worry may be common in patients with paranoia and a contributory causal factor in the occurrence of the delusions. A number of psychological mechanisms have been linked to the occurrence of worry in emotional disorders but these are yet to be investigated in psychosis. The primary aim of the study was to test the links between five main worry mechanisms - perseverative thinking, catastrophizing, stop rules, metacognitive beliefs, and intolerance of uncertainty - and the cognitive style of worry in patients with persecutory delusions. One hundred and fifty patients with persecutory delusions completed assessments of paranoia, worry, and worry mechanisms. Worry in patients with psychosis was associated with the following: a perseverative thinking style, an 'as many as can' stop rule, a range of metacognitive beliefs (cognitive confidence, worry as uncontrollable and the need to control thoughts), and intolerance of uncertainty. Higher levels of worry were associated with higher levels of paranoia. There was also evidence that intolerance of uncertainty and the metacognitive belief concerning the need to control thoughts were independently associated with paranoia. Worry in patients with persecutory delusions may well be understood by similar underlying mechanisms as worry in emotional disorders. This supports the use of interventions targeting worry, suitably modified, for patients with psychosis. Worry is a significant concern for patients with paranoia Worry in paranoia is likely to be caused by similar mechanisms as worry in emotional disorders The results support the recent trial findings that standard techniques for treating worry in anxiety, suitably modified, are applicable for patients with paranoia LIMITATIONS: The findings are limited by the self-report nature of measures and by the study design which precludes any assumptions about the direction of causality between the psychological mechanisms and worry. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

Illusory Changes in Body Size Modulate Body Satisfaction in a Way That Is Related to Non-Clinical Eating Disorder Psychopathology

PubMed Central

Preston, Catherine; Ehrsson, H. Henrik

2014-01-01

Historically, body size overestimation has been linked to abnormal levels of body dissatisfaction found in eating disorders. However, recently this relationship has been called into question. Indeed, despite a link between how we perceive and how we feel about our body seeming intuitive, until now lack of an experimental method to manipulate body size has meant that a causal link, even in healthy participants, has remained elusive. Recent developments in body perception research demonstrate that the perceptual experience of the body can be readily manipulated using multisensory illusions. The current study exploits such illusions to modulate perceived body size in an attempt to influence body satisfaction. Participants were presented with stereoscopic video images of slimmer and wider mannequin bodies viewed through head-mounted displays from first person perspective. Illusory ownership was induced by synchronously stroking the seen mannequin body with the unseen real body. Pre and post-illusion affective and perceptual measures captured changes in perceived body size and body satisfaction. Illusory ownership of a slimmer body resulted in participants perceiving their actual body as slimmer and giving higher ratings of body satisfaction demonstrating a direct link between perceptual and affective body representations. Change in body satisfaction following illusory ownership of a wider body, however, was related to degree of (non-clinical) eating disorder psychopathology, which can be linked to fluctuating body representations found in clinical samples. The results suggest that body perception is linked to body satisfaction and may be of importance for eating disorder symptomology. PMID:24465698

Tracing Actual Causes

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-08

actual values for variables in the SEM ), and an event e with M ,~u |= e, our definition answers the question : Which paths of the causal network G( M ...for each variable and a directed edge from vari- able X to Y if the equation for computing X uses Y . Given an SEM M , a context ~u (that supplies the...caused the event e1? Our definition answers this question as a set of causal slices, where each causal slice is a subgraph of G( M ). All paths in each

Correntropy-based partial directed coherence for testing multivariate Granger causality in nonlinear processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kannan, Rohit; Tangirala, Arun K.

2014-06-01

Identification of directional influences in multivariate systems is of prime importance in several applications of engineering and sciences such as plant topology reconstruction, fault detection and diagnosis, and neurosciences. A spectrum of related directionality measures, ranging from linear measures such as partial directed coherence (PDC) to nonlinear measures such as transfer entropy, have emerged over the past two decades. The PDC-based technique is simple and effective, but being a linear directionality measure has limited applicability. On the other hand, transfer entropy, despite being a robust nonlinear measure, is computationally intensive and practically implementable only for bivariate processes. The objective of this work is to develop a nonlinear directionality measure, termed as KPDC, that possesses the simplicity of PDC but is still applicable to nonlinear processes. The technique is founded on a nonlinear measure called correntropy, a recently proposed generalized correlation measure. The proposed method is equivalent to constructing PDC in a kernel space where the PDC is estimated using a vector autoregressive model built on correntropy. A consistent estimator of the KPDC is developed and important theoretical results are established. A permutation scheme combined with the sequential Bonferroni procedure is proposed for testing hypothesis on absence of causality. It is demonstrated through several case studies that the proposed methodology effectively detects Granger causality in nonlinear processes.

Causal diagrams for empirical legal research: a methodology for identifying causation, avoiding bias and interpreting results

PubMed Central

VanderWeele, Tyler J.; Staudt, Nancy

2014-01-01

In this paper we introduce methodology—causal directed acyclic graphs—that empirical researchers can use to identify causation, avoid bias, and interpret empirical results. This methodology has become popular in a number of disciplines, including statistics, biostatistics, epidemiology and computer science, but has yet to appear in the empirical legal literature. Accordingly we outline the rules and principles underlying this new methodology and then show how it can assist empirical researchers through both hypothetical and real-world examples found in the extant literature. While causal directed acyclic graphs are certainly not a panacea for all empirical problems, we show they have potential to make the most basic and fundamental tasks, such as selecting covariate controls, relatively easy and straightforward. PMID:25685055

Evaluating Periodontal Treatment to Prevent Cardiovascular Disease: Challenges and Possible Solutions.

PubMed

Merchant, Anwar T; Virani, Salim S

2017-01-01

Periodontal disease is correlated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) in observational studies, but a causal connection has not been established. The empirical evidence linking periodontal disease and CVD consists of a large body of observational and mechanistic studies, but a limited number of clinical trials evaluating the effects of periodontal treatment on surrogate CVD endpoints. No randomized controlled trial has been conducted to evaluate the effect of periodontal treatment on CVD risk. In this review, we have summarized these data, described possible biological mechanisms linking periodontal disease and CVD, discussed barriers to conducting a randomized controlled trial to evaluate this hypothesis, and provided an alternative analytical approach using causal inference methods to answer the question. The public health implications of addressing this question can be significant because periodontal disease is under-treated, and highly prevalent among adults at risk of CVD. Even a small beneficial effect of periodontal treatment on CVD risk can be important.

Pathways to psychosis in cannabis abuse.

PubMed

Shrivastava, Amresh; Johnston, Megan; Terpstra, Kristen; Bureau, Yves

2015-04-01

Cannabis has been implicated as a risk factor for the development of schizophrenia, but the exact biological mechanisms remain unclear. In this review, we attempt to understand the neurobiological pathways that link cannabis use to schizophrenia. This has been an area of great debate; despite similarities between cannabis users and schizophrenia patients, the evidence is not sufficient to establish cause-and-effect. There have been advances in the understanding of the mechanisms of cannabis dependence as well as the role of the cannabinoid system in the development of psychosis and schizophrenia. The neurobiological mechanisms associated with the development of psychosis and effects from cannabis use may be similar but remain elusive. In order to better understand these associations, this paper will show common neurobiological and neuroanatomical changes as well as common cognitive dysfunction in cannabis users and patients of schizophrenia. We conclude that epidemiologic evidence highlights potential causal links; however, neurobiological evidence for causality remains weak.

Climate warming drives local extinction: Evidence from observation and experimentation.

PubMed

Panetta, Anne Marie; Stanton, Maureen L; Harte, John

2018-02-01

Despite increasing concern about elevated extinction risk as global temperatures rise, it is difficult to confirm causal links between climate change and extinction. By coupling 25 years of in situ climate manipulation with experimental seed introductions and both historical and current plant surveys, we identify causal, mechanistic links between climate change and the local extinction of a widespread mountain plant ( Androsace septentrionalis ). Climate warming causes precipitous declines in population size by reducing fecundity and survival across multiple life stages. Climate warming also purges belowground seed banks, limiting the potential for the future recovery of at-risk populations under ameliorated conditions. Bolstered by previous reports of plant community shifts in this experiment and in other habitats, our findings not only support the hypothesis that climate change can drive local extinction but also foreshadow potentially widespread species losses in subalpine meadows as climate warming continues.

Climate warming drives local extinction: Evidence from observation and experimentation

PubMed Central

Panetta, Anne Marie; Stanton, Maureen L.; Harte, John

2018-01-01

Despite increasing concern about elevated extinction risk as global temperatures rise, it is difficult to confirm causal links between climate change and extinction. By coupling 25 years of in situ climate manipulation with experimental seed introductions and both historical and current plant surveys, we identify causal, mechanistic links between climate change and the local extinction of a widespread mountain plant (Androsace septentrionalis). Climate warming causes precipitous declines in population size by reducing fecundity and survival across multiple life stages. Climate warming also purges belowground seed banks, limiting the potential for the future recovery of at-risk populations under ameliorated conditions. Bolstered by previous reports of plant community shifts in this experiment and in other habitats, our findings not only support the hypothesis that climate change can drive local extinction but also foreshadow potentially widespread species losses in subalpine meadows as climate warming continues. PMID:29507884

Vitalistic thinking in adults.

PubMed

Wilson, Stuart

2013-11-01

Vitalistic thinking has traditionally been associated with reasoning about biological phenomena. The current research aimed to investigate a broader range of vitalistic thinking than previously studied. Esoteric notions of 'energy' are frequently used by individuals when making causal attributions for strange occurrences, and previous literature has linked such thinking with paranormal, magical, and superstitious beliefs. Two experiments are described that aim to investigate whether adults are vitalistic when asked to make causal judgments, and whether this can be predicted by thinking styles and prior paranormal belief. Experiment 1 asked participants to rate three causal options (one of which was vitalistic) for six vignettes. Scores on one dimension of paranormal belief (New Age Philosophy) and analytical thinking significantly predicted vitalism, but scores on intuitive thinking and Traditional Paranormal Beliefs did not. Experiment 2 extended the findings by asking participants to generate their own causal responses. Again, paranormal belief was found to be the best predictor of vitalism, but this time Traditional Paranormal Beliefs were associated with vitalistic responses whilst both intuitive and analytical thinking were unable to significantly predict classification. Results challenge previous findings, suggesting that vitalistic thinking may operate differently when applied to everyday causal reasoning. © 2012 The British Psychological Society.

[Social determinants of odontalgia in epidemiological studies: theoretical review and proposed conceptual model].

PubMed

Bastos, João Luiz Dornelles; Gigante, Denise Petrucci; Peres, Karen Glazer; Nedel, Fúlvio Borges

2007-01-01

The epidemiological literature has been limited by the absence of a theoretical framework reflecting the complexity of causal mechanisms for the occurrence of health phenomena / disease conditions. In the field of oral epidemiology, such lack of theory also prevails, since dental caries the leading topic in oral research has been often studied through a biological and reductionist viewpoint. One of the most important consequences of dental caries is dental pain (odontalgia), which has received little attention in studies with sophisticated theoretical models and powerful designs to establish causal relationships. The purpose of this study is to review the scientific literature on the determinants of odontalgia and to discuss theories proposed for the explanation of the phenomenon. Conceptual models and emerging theories on the social determinants of oral health are revised, in an attempt to build up links with the bio-psychosocial pain model, proposing a more elaborate causal model for odontalgia. The framework suggests causal pathways between social structure and oral health through material, psychosocial and behavioral pathways. Aspects of the social structure are highlighted in order to relate them to odontalgia, stressing their importance in discussions of causal relationships in oral health research.

A Framework for Estimating Causal Effects in Latent Class Analysis: Is There a Causal Link Between Early Sex and Subsequent Profiles of Delinquency?

PubMed Central

Lanza, Stephanie T.; Coffman, Donna L.

2013-01-01

Prevention scientists use latent class analysis (LCA) with increasing frequency to characterize complex behavior patterns and profiles of risk. Often, the most important research questions in these studies involve establishing characteristics that predict membership in the latent classes, thus describing the composition of the subgroups and suggesting possible points of intervention. More recently, prevention scientists have begun to adopt modern methods for drawing causal inference from observational data because of the bias that can be introduced by confounders. This same issue of confounding exists in any analysis of observational data, including prediction of latent class membership. This study demonstrates a straightforward approach to causal inference in LCA that builds on propensity score methods. We demonstrate this approach by examining the causal effect of early sex on subsequent delinquency latent classes using data from 1,890 adolescents in 11th and 12th grade from wave I of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. Prior to the statistical adjustment for potential confounders, early sex was significantly associated with delinquency latent class membership for both genders (p=0.02). However, the propensity score adjusted analysis indicated no evidence for a causal effect of early sex on delinquency class membership (p=0.76) for either gender. Sample R and SAS code is included in an Appendix in the ESM so that prevention scientists may adopt this approach to causal inference in LCA in their own work. PMID:23839479

A framework for estimating causal effects in latent class analysis: is there a causal link between early sex and subsequent profiles of delinquency?

PubMed

Butera, Nicole M; Lanza, Stephanie T; Coffman, Donna L

2014-06-01

Prevention scientists use latent class analysis (LCA) with increasing frequency to characterize complex behavior patterns and profiles of risk. Often, the most important research questions in these studies involve establishing characteristics that predict membership in the latent classes, thus describing the composition of the subgroups and suggesting possible points of intervention. More recently, prevention scientists have begun to adopt modern methods for drawing causal inference from observational data because of the bias that can be introduced by confounders. This same issue of confounding exists in any analysis of observational data, including prediction of latent class membership. This study demonstrates a straightforward approach to causal inference in LCA that builds on propensity score methods. We demonstrate this approach by examining the causal effect of early sex on subsequent delinquency latent classes using data from 1,890 adolescents in 11th and 12th grade from wave I of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. Prior to the statistical adjustment for potential confounders, early sex was significantly associated with delinquency latent class membership for both genders (p = 0.02). However, the propensity score adjusted analysis indicated no evidence for a causal effect of early sex on delinquency class membership (p = 0.76) for either gender. Sample R and SAS code is included in an Appendix in the ESM so that prevention scientists may adopt this approach to causal inference in LCA in their own work.

Children's Causal Inferences from Conflicting Testimony and Observations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bridgers, Sophie; Buchsbaum, Daphna; Seiver, Elizabeth; Griffiths, Thomas L.; Gopnik, Alison

2016-01-01

Preschoolers use both direct observation of statistical data and informant testimony to learn causal relationships. Can children integrate information from these sources, especially when source reliability is uncertain? We investigate how children handle a conflict between what they hear and what they see. In Experiment 1, 4-year-olds were…

THE CHILD'S CONCEPTION OF PHYSICAL CAUSALITY.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

PIAGET, JEAN

THE CHILD'S CONCEPTION OF PHYSICAL CAUSALITY WAS INVESTIGATED. THREE METHODS OF INVESTIGATION WERE USED. THE FIRST METHOD WAS PURELY VERBAL, AND CONSISTED OF A SERIES OF QUESTIONS DIRECTED TO CHILDREN, REGARDING SOME NATURAL PHENOMENON. THE SECOND METHOD INVOLVED A HALF-VERBAL, HALF-PRACTICAL APPROACH, WHEREIN A SPECIFIC REFERENCE TO NATURAL…

Identifying Causal Variants at Loci with Multiple Signals of Association

PubMed Central

Hormozdiari, Farhad; Kostem, Emrah; Kang, Eun Yong; Pasaniuc, Bogdan; Eskin, Eleazar

2014-01-01

Although genome-wide association studies have successfully identified thousands of risk loci for complex traits, only a handful of the biologically causal variants, responsible for association at these loci, have been successfully identified. Current statistical methods for identifying causal variants at risk loci either use the strength of the association signal in an iterative conditioning framework or estimate probabilities for variants to be causal. A main drawback of existing methods is that they rely on the simplifying assumption of a single causal variant at each risk locus, which is typically invalid at many risk loci. In this work, we propose a new statistical framework that allows for the possibility of an arbitrary number of causal variants when estimating the posterior probability of a variant being causal. A direct benefit of our approach is that we predict a set of variants for each locus that under reasonable assumptions will contain all of the true causal variants with a high confidence level (e.g., 95%) even when the locus contains multiple causal variants. We use simulations to show that our approach provides 20–50% improvement in our ability to identify the causal variants compared to the existing methods at loci harboring multiple causal variants. We validate our approach using empirical data from an expression QTL study of CHI3L2 to identify new causal variants that affect gene expression at this locus. CAVIAR is publicly available online at http://genetics.cs.ucla.edu/caviar/. PMID:25104515

Identifying causal variants at loci with multiple signals of association.

PubMed

Hormozdiari, Farhad; Kostem, Emrah; Kang, Eun Yong; Pasaniuc, Bogdan; Eskin, Eleazar

2014-10-01

Although genome-wide association studies have successfully identified thousands of risk loci for complex traits, only a handful of the biologically causal variants, responsible for association at these loci, have been successfully identified. Current statistical methods for identifying causal variants at risk loci either use the strength of the association signal in an iterative conditioning framework or estimate probabilities for variants to be causal. A main drawback of existing methods is that they rely on the simplifying assumption of a single causal variant at each risk locus, which is typically invalid at many risk loci. In this work, we propose a new statistical framework that allows for the possibility of an arbitrary number of causal variants when estimating the posterior probability of a variant being causal. A direct benefit of our approach is that we predict a set of variants for each locus that under reasonable assumptions will contain all of the true causal variants with a high confidence level (e.g., 95%) even when the locus contains multiple causal variants. We use simulations to show that our approach provides 20-50% improvement in our ability to identify the causal variants compared to the existing methods at loci harboring multiple causal variants. We validate our approach using empirical data from an expression QTL study of CHI3L2 to identify new causal variants that affect gene expression at this locus. CAVIAR is publicly available online at http://genetics.cs.ucla.edu/caviar/. Copyright © 2014 by the Genetics Society of America.

Multivariate co-integration analysis of the Kaya factors in Ghana.

PubMed

Asumadu-Sarkodie, Samuel; Owusu, Phebe Asantewaa

2016-05-01

The fundamental goal of the Government of Ghana's development agenda as enshrined in the Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategy to grow the economy to a middle income status of US$1000 per capita by the end of 2015 could be met by increasing the labour force, increasing energy supplies and expanding the energy infrastructure in order to achieve the sustainable development targets. In this study, a multivariate co-integration analysis of the Kaya factors namely carbon dioxide, total primary energy consumption, population and GDP was investigated in Ghana using vector error correction model with data spanning from 1980 to 2012. Our research results show an existence of long-run causality running from population, GDP and total primary energy consumption to carbon dioxide emissions. However, there is evidence of short-run causality running from population to carbon dioxide emissions. There was a bi-directional causality running from carbon dioxide emissions to energy consumption and vice versa. In other words, decreasing the primary energy consumption in Ghana will directly reduce carbon dioxide emissions. In addition, a bi-directional causality running from GDP to energy consumption and vice versa exists in the multivariate model. It is plausible that access to energy has a relationship with increasing economic growth and productivity in Ghana.

The metabolism of primaquine to its active metabolite is dependent on CYP 2D6.

PubMed

Pybus, Brandon S; Marcsisin, Sean R; Jin, Xiannu; Deye, Gregory; Sousa, Jason C; Li, Qigui; Caridha, Diana; Zeng, Qiang; Reichard, Gregory A; Ockenhouse, Christian; Bennett, Jason; Walker, Larry A; Ohrt, Colin; Melendez, Victor

2013-06-20

The efficacy of the 8-aminoquinoline (8AQ) drug primaquine (PQ) has been historically linked to CYP-mediated metabolism. Although to date no clear evidence exists in the literature that unambiguously assigns the metabolic pathway or specific metabolites necessary for activity, recent literature suggests a role for CYP 2D6 in the generation of redox active metabolites. In the present study, the specific CYP 2D6 inhibitor paroxetine was used to assess its effects on the production of specific phenolic metabolites thought to be involved in PQ efficacy. Further, PQ causal prophylactic (developing liver stage) efficacy against Plasmodium berghei in CYP 2D knockout mice was assessed in comparison with a normal C57 background and with humanized CYP 2D6 mice to determine the direct effects of CYP 2D6 metabolism on PQ activity. PQ exhibited no activity at 20 or 40 mg/kg in CYP 2D knockout mice, compared to 5/5 cures in normal mice at 20 mg/kg. The activity against developing liver stages was partially restored in humanized CYP 2D6 mice. These results unambiguously demonstrate that metabolism of PQ by CYP 2D6 is essential for anti-malarial causal prophylaxis efficacy.

Links between riparian landcover, instream environment and fish assemblages in headwater streams of south-eastern Brazil

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cruz, Bruna B.; Miranda, Leandro E.; Cetra, Mauricio

2013-01-01

We hypothesised and tested a hierarchical organisation model where riparian landcover would influence bank composition and light availability, which in turn would influence instream environments and control fish assemblages. The study was conducted during the dry season in 11 headwater tributaries of the Sorocaba River in the upper Paraná River Basin, south-eastern Brazil. We focused on seven environmental factors each represented by one or multiple environmental variables and seven fish functional traits each represented by two or more classes. Multivariate direct gradient analyses suggested that riparian zone landcover can be considered a higher level causal factor in a network of relations that control instream characteristics and fish assemblages. Our results provide a framework for a hierarchical conceptual model that identifies singular and collective influences of variables from different scales on each other and ultimately on different aspects related to stream fish functional composition. This conceptual model is focused on the relationships between riparian landcover and instream variables as causal factors on the organisation of stream fish assemblages. Our results can also be viewed as a model for headwater stream management in that landcover can be manipulated to influence factors such as bank composition, substrates and water quality, whereas fish assemblage composition can be used as indicators to monitor the success of such efforts.

From focal sepsis to periodontal medicine: a century of exploring the role of the oral microbiome in systemic disease

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Abstract The oral microbiome is established within a few minutes after birth and consists of stable multi‐species communities that engage in a dynamic equilibrium with the host immune system. Dental caries, endodontic infections and periodontal diseases are bacterially driven diseases that are caused by dysbiotic microbiomes. Over a century ago, the focal infection theory implicated these infections in the aetiology of several systemic diseases, ranging from arthritis to neurodegenerative diseases. However, a lack of concrete evidence, combined with the urgency with which clinicians embraced this approach without regard for appropriate case selection, led to its demise within 30 years. In the last decade of the 20th century, the concept of periodontal medicine was introduced to explain the correlations that were being observed between periodontitis and cardiovascular disease, rheumatoid arthritis, Alzheimer's disease, pulmonary disease, pre‐term delivery of low birth weight infants and metabolic disease. It was proposed that periodontal pathobionts played a causal role in the initiating or exacerbating certain diseases either by direct invasion or by stimulating a florid immune‐inflammatory response that extended into the systemic circulation. This review will examine the strength of current evidence in establishing a causal link between oral pathobionts and systemic disease. PMID:27426277

Causal chain analysis and root causes: the GIWA approach.

PubMed

Belausteguigoitia, Juan Carlos

2004-02-01

The Global International Waters Assessment (GIWA) was created to help develop a priority setting mechanism for actions in international waters. Apart from assessing the severity of environmental problems in ecosystems, the GIWA's task is to analyze potential policy actions that could solve or mitigate these problems. Given the complex nature of the problems, understanding their root causes is essential to develop effective solutions. The GIWA provides a framework to analyze these causes, which is based on identifying the factors that shape human behavior in relation to the use (direct or indirect) of aquatic resources. Two sets of factors are analyzed. The first one consists of social coordination mechanisms (institutions). Faults in these mechanisms lead to wasteful use of resources. The second consists of factors that do not cause wasteful use of resources per se (poverty, trade, demographic growth, technology), but expose and magnify the faults of the first group of factors. The picture that comes out is that diagnosing simple generic causes, e.g. poverty or trade, without analyzing the case specific ways in which the root causes act and interact to degrade the environment, will likely ignore important links that may put the effectiveness of the recommended policies at risk. A summary of the causal chain analysis for the Colorado River Delta is provided as an example.

Sleep, serotonin, and suicide in Japan.

PubMed

Kohyama, Jun

2011-01-01

This article reviews evidence supporting the hypothesis that suicide rates in Japan could be reduced by elevating serotonin levels via increasing the average duration of sleep. Seven major relevant findings were apparent in the literature: 1) Sleep loss is associated with suicide, but the direction of causality is equivocal. 2) Decreased serotonergic activity may be involved in suicidal behavior. 3) Sleep debt may decrease serotonergic activity. 4) The suicide rate in Japan has remained at a heightened level for the past 12 years. 5) The average sleep duration in Japan has decreased over the past 40 years. 6) The average sleep duration in Japan is among the lowest in the world. 7) The average sleep duration in Japan plateaued in 1995 and has been relatively stable since. From the research reviewed, two major problematic issues were apparent: 1) Most people in Japan receive inadequate sleep. 2) Individuals whose sleep is inadequate are unlikely to be sufficiently physically active to stimulate serotonergic systems to a desirable level. I propose that public health initiatives encouraging a longer duration of sleep may provide a relatively simple way of addressing the disturbing current trend in Japan. The combination of actigraph and brain serotonin level measurement could allow large population-based cohort studies to be designed, to elucidate the causal links between sleep duration, serotonin levels, and suicide rates.

Synthetic Vision Enhanced Surface Operations and Flight Procedures Rehearsal Tool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arthur, Jarvis J., III; Prinzel, Lawrence J., III; Williams, Steven P.; Kramer, Lynda J.

2006-01-01

Limited visibility has been cited as predominant causal factor for both Controlled-Flight-Into-Terrain (CFIT) and runway incursion accidents. NASA is conducting research and development of Synthetic Vision Systems (SVS) technologies which may potentially mitigate low visibility conditions as a causal factor to these accidents while replicating the operational benefits of clear day flight operations, regardless of the actual outside visibility condition. Two experimental evaluation studies were performed to determine the efficacy of two concepts: 1) head-worn display application of SVS technology to enhance transport aircraft surface operations, and 2) three-dimensional SVS electronic flight bag display concept for flight plan preview, mission rehearsal and controller-pilot data link communications interface of flight procedures. In the surface operation study, pilots evaluated two display devices and four display modes during taxi under unlimited and CAT II visibility conditions. In the mission rehearsal study, pilots flew approaches and departures in an operationally-challenged airport environment, including CFIT scenarios. Performance using the SVS concepts was compared to traditional baseline displays with paper charts only or EFB information. In general, the studies evince the significant situation awareness and enhanced operational capabilities afforded from these advanced SVS display concepts. The experimental results and conclusions from these studies are discussed along with future directions.

Inference of directed climate networks: role of instability of causality estimation methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hlinka, Jaroslav; Hartman, David; Vejmelka, Martin; Paluš, Milan

2013-04-01

Climate data are increasingly analyzed by complex network analysis methods, including graph-theoretical approaches [1]. For such analysis, links between localized nodes of climate network are typically quantified by some statistical measures of dependence (connectivity) between measured variables of interest. To obtain information on the directionality of the interactions in the networks, a wide range of methods exists. These can be broadly divided into linear and nonlinear methods, with some of the latter having the theoretical advantage of being model-free, and principally a generalization of the former [2]. However, as a trade-off, this generality comes together with lower accuracy - in particular if the system was close to linear. In an overall stationary system, this may potentially lead to higher variability in the nonlinear network estimates. Therefore, with the same control of false alarms, this may lead to lower sensitivity for detection of real changes in the network structure. These problems are discussed on the example of daily SAT and SLP data from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset. We first reduce the dimensionality of data using PCA with VARIMAX rotation to detect several dozens of components that together explain most of the data variability. We further construct directed climate networks applying a selection of most widely used methods - variants of linear Granger causality and conditional mutual information. Finally, we assess the stability of the detected directed climate networks by computing them in sliding time windows. To understand the origin of the observed instabilities and their range, we also apply the same procedure to two types of surrogate data: either with non-stationarity in network structure removed, or imposed in a controlled way. In general, the linear methods show stable results in terms of overall similarity of directed climate networks inferred. For instance, for different decades of SAT data, the Spearman correlation of edge weights in the networks is ~ 0.6. The networks constructed using nonlinear measures were in general less stable both in real data and stationarized surrogates. Interestingly, when the nonlinear method parameters are optimized with respect to temporal stability of the networks, the networks seem to converge close to those detected by linear Granger causality. This provides further evidence for the hypothesis of overall sparsity and weakness of nonlinear coupling in climate networks on this spatial and temporal scale [3] and sufficient support for the use of linear methods in this context, unless specific clearly detectable nonlinear phenomena are targeted. Acknowledgement: This study is supported by the Czech Science Foundation, Project No. P103/11/J068. [1] Boccaletti, S.; Latora, V.; Moreno, Y.; Chavez, M. & Hwang, D. U.: Complex networks: Structure and dynamics, Physics Reports, 2006, 424, 175-308 [2] Barnett, L.; Barrett, A. B. & Seth, A. K.: Granger Causality and Transfer Entropy Are Equivalent for Gaussian Variables, Physical Review Letters, 2009, 103, 238701 [3] Hlinka, J.; Hartman, D.; Vejmelka, M.; Novotná, D.; Paluš, M.: Non-linear dependence and teleconnections in climate data: sources, relevance, nonstationarity, submitted preprint (http://arxiv.org/abs/1211.6688)

Causal mediation analysis with a binary outcome and multiple continuous or ordinal mediators: Simulations and application to an alcohol intervention

PubMed Central

Nguyen, Trang Quynh; Webb-Vargas, Yenny; Koning, Ina M.; Stuart, Elizabeth A.

2016-01-01

We investigate a method to estimate the combined effect of multiple continuous/ordinal mediators on a binary outcome: 1) fit a structural equation model with probit link for the outcome and identity/probit link for continuous/ordinal mediators, 2) predict potential outcome probabilities, and 3) compute natural direct and indirect effects. Step 2 involves rescaling the latent continuous variable underlying the outcome to address residual mediator variance/covariance. We evaluate the estimation of risk-difference- and risk-ratio-based effects (RDs, RRs) using the ML, WLSMV and Bayes estimators in Mplus. Across most variations in path-coefficient and mediator-residual-correlation signs and strengths, and confounding situations investigated, the method performs well with all estimators, but favors ML/WLSMV for RDs with continuous mediators, and Bayes for RRs with ordinal mediators. Bayes outperforms WLSMV/ML regardless of mediator type when estimating RRs with small potential outcome probabilities and in two other special cases. An adolescent alcohol prevention study is used for illustration. PMID:27158217

The Effect of Initial Public Offering (IPO) Firm Legitimacy on Cooperative Agreements and Performance

DTIC Science & Technology

2000-04-04

4(1): 15-27. Keats , B.W. 1990. Diversification and business economic performance revisted: Issues of measurementand causality. Journal of... Economics 50 III. DEVELOPMENT OF- HYPOTHESES 53 Introduction 53 The Link Between Legitimacy and Cooperative Agreements 53 The Link Between...for cooperative agreements is the young , growth oriented firm (Doz and Hamel, 1998). These firms find that a disproportionate number and type of

A genomic map enriched for markers linked to Avr1 in Cronartium quercuum f.sp. fusiforme

Treesearch

Thomas L Kubisiak; Claire L Anderson; Henry V Amerson; Jason A Smith; John M Davis; C Dana Nelson

2011-01-01

A novel approach is presented to map avirulence gene Avr1 in the basidiomycete Cronartium quercuum f.sp. fusiforme, the causal agent of fusiform rust disease in pines. DNA markers tightly linked to resistance gene Fr1 in loblolly pine tree 10-5 were used to classify 10-5 seedling progeny as either resistant or susceptible. A single dikaryotic isolate (P2) heterozygous...

On the relationships between commercial sexual exploitation/prostitution, substance dependency, and delinquency in youthful offenders.

PubMed

Reid, Joan A; Piquero, Alex R

2014-01-01

Researchers have consistently linked commercial sexual exploitation (CSE) of youth and involvement in prostitution with substance dependency and delinquency. Yet, important questions remain regarding the directionality and mechanisms driving this association. Utilizing a sample of 114 CSE/prostituted youth participating in the Pathways to Desistance study-a longitudinal investigation of the transition from adolescence to adulthood among serious adolescent offenders-the current study examined key criminal career parameters of CSE/prostitution including age of onset and rate of recurrence. Additionally, structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to explore concurrent associations and causal links between CSE/prostitution and drug involvement. Findings show a general sequential pattern of the ages of onset with substance use and selling drugs occurring prior to CSE/prostitution, evidence that a small group with chronic CSE/prostitution account for the majority of CSE/prostitution occurrences, and high rates of repeated CSE/prostitution. SEM results suggest CSE/prostituted youth persist in drug involvement from year to year but infrequently experience perpetuation of CSE/prostitution from year to year. Concurrent associations between CSE/prostitution and drug involvement were found across the length of the study. Additionally, drug involvement at one year was linked to CSE/prostitution during the subsequent year during early years of the study. © The Author(s) 2014.

On the interpretability and computational reliability of frequency-domain Granger causality.

PubMed

Faes, Luca; Stramaglia, Sebastiano; Marinazzo, Daniele

2017-01-01

This Correspondence article is a comment which directly relates to the paper "A study of problems encountered in Granger causality analysis from a neuroscience perspective" ( Stokes and Purdon, 2017). We agree that interpretation issues of Granger causality (GC) in neuroscience exist, partially due to the historically unfortunate use of the name "causality", as described in previous literature. On the other hand, we think that Stokes and Purdon use a formulation of GC which is outdated (albeit still used) and do not fully account for the potential of the different frequency-domain versions of GC; in doing so, their paper dismisses GC measures based on a suboptimal use of them. Furthermore, since data from simulated systems are used, the pitfalls that are found with the used formulation are intended to be general, and not limited to neuroscience. It would be a pity if this paper, even if written in good faith, became a wildcard against all possible applications of GC, regardless of the large body of work recently published which aims to address faults in methodology and interpretation. In order to provide a balanced view, we replicate the simulations of Stokes and Purdon, using an updated GC implementation and exploiting the combination of spectral and causal information, showing that in this way the pitfalls are mitigated or directly solved.

Impairments in action-outcome learning in schizophrenia.

PubMed

Morris, Richard W; Cyrzon, Chad; Green, Melissa J; Le Pelley, Mike E; Balleine, Bernard W

2018-03-03

Learning the causal relation between actions and their outcomes (AO learning) is critical for goal-directed behavior when actions are guided by desire for the outcome. This can be contrasted with habits that are acquired by reinforcement and primed by prevailing stimuli, in which causal learning plays no part. Recently, we demonstrated that goal-directed actions are impaired in schizophrenia; however, whether this deficit exists alongside impairments in habit or reinforcement learning is unknown. The present study distinguished deficits in causal learning from reinforcement learning in schizophrenia. We tested people with schizophrenia (SZ, n = 25) and healthy adults (HA, n = 25) in a vending machine task. Participants learned two action-outcome contingencies (e.g., push left to get a chocolate M&M, push right to get a cracker), and they also learned one contingency was degraded by delivery of noncontingent outcomes (e.g., free M&Ms), as well as changes in value by outcome devaluation. Both groups learned the best action to obtain rewards; however, SZ did not distinguish the more causal action when one AO contingency was degraded. Moreover, action selection in SZ was insensitive to changes in outcome value unless feedback was provided, and this was related to the deficit in AO learning. The failure to encode the causal relation between action and outcome in schizophrenia occurred without any apparent deficit in reinforcement learning. This implies that poor goal-directed behavior in schizophrenia cannot be explained by a more primary deficit in reward learning such as insensitivity to reward value or reward prediction errors.

DNA Methylation and BMI: Investigating Identified Methylation Sites at HIF3A in a Causal Framework.

PubMed

Richmond, Rebecca C; Sharp, Gemma C; Ward, Mary E; Fraser, Abigail; Lyttleton, Oliver; McArdle, Wendy L; Ring, Susan M; Gaunt, Tom R; Lawlor, Debbie A; Davey Smith, George; Relton, Caroline L

2016-05-01

Multiple differentially methylated sites and regions associated with adiposity have now been identified in large-scale cross-sectional studies. We tested for replication of associations between previously identified CpG sites at HIF3A and adiposity in ∼1,000 mother-offspring pairs from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). Availability of methylation and adiposity measures at multiple time points, as well as genetic data, allowed us to assess the temporal associations between adiposity and methylation and to make inferences regarding causality and directionality. Overall, our results were discordant with those expected if HIF3A methylation has a causal effect on BMI and provided more evidence for causality in the reverse direction (i.e., an effect of BMI on HIF3A methylation). These results are based on robust evidence from longitudinal analyses and were also partially supported by Mendelian randomization analysis, although this latter analysis was underpowered to detect a causal effect of BMI on HIF3A methylation. Our results also highlight an apparent long-lasting intergenerational influence of maternal BMI on offspring methylation at this locus, which may confound associations between own adiposity and HIF3A methylation. Further work is required to replicate and uncover the mechanisms underlying the direct and intergenerational effect of adiposity on DNA methylation. © 2016 by the American Diabetes Association. Readers may use this article as long as the work is properly cited, the use is educational and not for profit, and the work is not altered.

Education and health knowledge: evidence from UK compulsory schooling reform.

PubMed

Johnston, David W; Lordan, Grace; Shields, Michael A; Suziedelyte, Agne

2015-02-01

We investigate if there is a causal link between education and health knowledge using data from the 1984/85 and 1991/92 waves of the UK Health and Lifestyle Survey (HALS). Uniquely, the survey asks respondents what they think are the main causes of ten common health conditions, and we compare these answers to those given by medical professionals to form an index of health knowledge. For causal identification we use increases in the UK minimum school leaving age in 1947 (from 14 to 15) and 1972 (from 15 to 16) to provide exogenous variation in education. These reforms predominantly induced adolescents who would have left school to stay for one additionally mandated year. OLS estimates suggest that education significantly increases health knowledge, with a one-year increase in schooling increasing the health knowledge index by 15% of a standard deviation. In contrast, estimates from instrumental-variable models show that increased schooling due to the education reforms did not significantly affect health knowledge. This main result is robust to numerous specification tests and alternative formulations of the health knowledge index. Further research is required to determine whether there is also no causal link between higher levels of education - such as post-school qualifications - and health knowledge. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The intrinsic stiffness of human trabecular meshwork cells increases with senescence

PubMed Central

Chang, Yow-Ren; Murphy, Christopher J.; Russell, Paul

2015-01-01

Dysfunction of the human trabecular meshwork (HTM) plays a central role in the age-associated disease glaucoma, a leading cause of irreversible blindness. The etiology remains poorly understood but cellular senescence, increased stiffness of the tissue, and the expression of Wnt antagonists such as secreted frizzled related protein-1 (SFRP1) have been implicated. However, it is not known if senescence is causally linked to either stiffness or SFRP1 expression. In this study, we utilized in vitro HTM senescence to determine the effect on cellular stiffening and SFRP1 expression. Stiffness of cultured cells was measured using atomic force microscopy and the morphology of the cytoskeleton was determined using immunofluorescent analysis. SFRP1 expression was measured using qPCR and immunofluorescent analysis. Senescent cell stiffness increased 1.88±0.14 or 2.57±0.14 fold in the presence or absence of serum, respectively. This was accompanied by increased vimentin expression, stress fiber formation, and SFRP1 expression. In aggregate, these data demonstrate that senescence may be a causal factor in HTM stiffening and elevated SFRP1 expression, and contribute towards disease progression. These findings provide insight into the etiology of glaucoma and, more broadly, suggest a causal link between senescence and altered tissue biomechanics in aging-associated diseases. PMID:25915531

Detectability of Granger causality for subsampled continuous-time neurophysiological processes.

PubMed

Barnett, Lionel; Seth, Anil K

2017-01-01

Granger causality is well established within the neurosciences for inference of directed functional connectivity from neurophysiological data. These data usually consist of time series which subsample a continuous-time biophysiological process. While it is well known that subsampling can lead to imputation of spurious causal connections where none exist, less is known about the effects of subsampling on the ability to reliably detect causal connections which do exist. We present a theoretical analysis of the effects of subsampling on Granger-causal inference. Neurophysiological processes typically feature signal propagation delays on multiple time scales; accordingly, we base our analysis on a distributed-lag, continuous-time stochastic model, and consider Granger causality in continuous time at finite prediction horizons. Via exact analytical solutions, we identify relationships among sampling frequency, underlying causal time scales and detectability of causalities. We reveal complex interactions between the time scale(s) of neural signal propagation and sampling frequency. We demonstrate that detectability decays exponentially as the sample time interval increases beyond causal delay times, identify detectability "black spots" and "sweet spots", and show that downsampling may potentially improve detectability. We also demonstrate that the invariance of Granger causality under causal, invertible filtering fails at finite prediction horizons, with particular implications for inference of Granger causality from fMRI data. Our analysis emphasises that sampling rates for causal analysis of neurophysiological time series should be informed by domain-specific time scales, and that state-space modelling should be preferred to purely autoregressive modelling. On the basis of a very general model that captures the structure of neurophysiological processes, we are able to help identify confounds, and offer practical insights, for successful detection of causal connectivity from neurophysiological recordings. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reprint of “Non-causal spike filtering improves decoding of movement intention for intracortical BCIs”☆

PubMed Central

Masse, Nicolas Y.; Jarosiewicz, Beata; Simeral, John D.; Bacher, Daniel; Stavisky, Sergey D.; Cash, Sydney S.; Oakley, Erin M.; Berhanu, Etsub; Eskandar, Emad; Friehs, Gerhard; Hochberg, Leigh R.; Donoghue, John P.

2015-01-01

Background Multiple types of neural signals are available for controlling assistive devices through brain–computer interfaces (BCIs). Intracortically recorded spiking neural signals are attractive for BCIs because they can in principle provide greater fidelity of encoded information compared to electrocorticographic (ECoG) signals and electroencephalograms (EEGs). Recent reports show that the information content of these spiking neural signals can be reliably extracted simply by causally band-pass filtering the recorded extracellular voltage signals and then applying a spike detection threshold, without relying on “sorting” action potentials. New method We show that replacing the causal filter with an equivalent non-causal filter increases the information content extracted from the extracellular spiking signal and improves decoding of intended movement direction. This method can be used for real-time BCI applications by using a 4 ms lag between recording and filtering neural signals. Results Across 18 sessions from two people with tetraplegia enrolled in the BrainGate2 pilot clinical trial, we found that threshold crossing events extracted using this non-causal filtering method were significantly more informative of each participant’s intended cursor kinematics compared to threshold crossing events derived from causally filtered signals. This new method decreased the mean angular error between the intended and decoded cursor direction by 9.7° for participant S3, who was implanted 5.4 years prior to this study, and by 3.5° for participant T2, who was implanted 3 months prior to this study. PMID:25681017

Two-step estimation in ratio-of-mediator-probability weighted causal mediation analysis.

PubMed

Bein, Edward; Deutsch, Jonah; Hong, Guanglei; Porter, Kristin E; Qin, Xu; Yang, Cheng

2018-04-15

This study investigates appropriate estimation of estimator variability in the context of causal mediation analysis that employs propensity score-based weighting. Such an analysis decomposes the total effect of a treatment on the outcome into an indirect effect transmitted through a focal mediator and a direct effect bypassing the mediator. Ratio-of-mediator-probability weighting estimates these causal effects by adjusting for the confounding impact of a large number of pretreatment covariates through propensity score-based weighting. In step 1, a propensity score model is estimated. In step 2, the causal effects of interest are estimated using weights derived from the prior step's regression coefficient estimates. Statistical inferences obtained from this 2-step estimation procedure are potentially problematic if the estimated standard errors of the causal effect estimates do not reflect the sampling uncertainty in the estimation of the weights. This study extends to ratio-of-mediator-probability weighting analysis a solution to the 2-step estimation problem by stacking the score functions from both steps. We derive the asymptotic variance-covariance matrix for the indirect effect and direct effect 2-step estimators, provide simulation results, and illustrate with an application study. Our simulation results indicate that the sampling uncertainty in the estimated weights should not be ignored. The standard error estimation using the stacking procedure offers a viable alternative to bootstrap standard error estimation. We discuss broad implications of this approach for causal analysis involving propensity score-based weighting. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The influence of causal connections between symptoms on the diagnosis of mental disorders: evidence from online and offline measures.

PubMed

Flores, Amanda; Cobos, Pedro L; López, Francisco J; Godoy, Antonio; González-Martín, Estrella

2014-09-01

An experiment conducted with students and experienced clinicians demonstrated very fast and online causal reasoning in the diagnosis of Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition (DSM-IV) mental disorders. The experiment also demonstrated that clinicians' causal reasoning is triggered by information that is directly related to the causal structure that explains the symptoms, such as their temporal sequence. The use of causal theories was measured through explicit, verbal diagnostic judgments and through the online registration of participants' reading times of clinical reports. To detect both online and offline causal reasoning, the consistency of clinical reports was manipulated. This manipulation was made by varying the temporal order in which different symptoms developed in hypothetical clients, and by providing explicit information about causal connections between symptoms. The temporal order of symptoms affected the clinicians' but not the students' reading times. However, offline diagnostic judgments in both groups were influenced by the consistency manipulation. Overall, our results suggest that clinicians engage in fast and online causal reasoning processes when dealing with diagnostic information concerning mental disorders, and that both clinicians and students engage in causal reasoning in diagnostic judgment tasks. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Updating during reading comprehension: why causality matters.

PubMed

Kendeou, Panayiota; Smith, Emily R; O'Brien, Edward J

2013-05-01

The present set of 7 experiments systematically examined the effectiveness of adding causal explanations to simple refutations in reducing or eliminating the impact of outdated information on subsequent comprehension. The addition of a single causal-explanation sentence to a refutation was sufficient to eliminate any measurable disruption in comprehension caused by the outdated information (Experiment 1) but was not sufficient to eliminate its reactivation (Experiment 2). However, a 3 sentence causal-explanation addition to a refutation eliminated both any measurable disruption in comprehension (Experiment 3) and the reactivation of the outdated information (Experiment 4). A direct comparison between the 1 and 3 causal-explanation conditions provided converging evidence for these findings (Experiment 5). Furthermore, a comparison of the 3 sentence causal-explanation condition with a 3 sentence qualified-elaboration condition demonstrated that even though both conditions were sufficient to eliminate any measurable disruption in comprehension (Experiment 6), only the causal-explanation condition was sufficient to eliminate the reactivation of the outdated information (Experiment 7). These results establish a boundary condition under which outdated information will influence comprehension; they also have broader implications for both the updating process and knowledge revision in general.

Young adults' reactions to infant crying.

PubMed

Cohen-Bendahan, C C C; van Doornen, L J P; de Weerth, C

2014-02-01

An infant's optimal development is determined to a great extent by the adequate and sensitive responses of the caregiver. The adequacy and sensitivity of a reaction to an infant in distress (i.e. crying) will partly depend on the causal attributions of the crying and on the individual's sympathy for the infant. Being female, prior caring experiences, and multiparity have shown to be linked to more sympathetic, tolerant and less hostile emotional responses to crying. However, little is known about other factors explaining inexperienced future caregivers' reactions to infant crying. The present paper's goal is to shed more light on the subject by looking at how personality factors, caregiving interest, sex, promptness of the reaction, and gender identity are related to emotional reactions and causal attributions to crying in a population of young adults without children. One hundred and ninety-one childless university students participated (126 females; ages 18-35 years). The participants completed questionnaires on personality, gender identity and caregiving interest, and listened to an audio sample of an infant crying, reporting their emotions and their causal attributions to the crying. The results showed that experiencing anger was associated with more child-blaming attributions to the crying, while quickness of response and feelings of sympathy predicted more child-oriented attributions. The latter was stronger in males. Explicit care interest decreased child-blaming causal attributions more for men than for the women. Interestingly, solely in the females' personality factors neuroticism and conscientiousness played a role in child blaming attributions together with anger. These findings suggest that the motives that young adults attribute to a crying infant depend in males on the emotions triggered by the crying, responsiveness and care interest. While in females, emotions, responsiveness and personality affect the causal attribution to the crying. Future research is needed in order to determine whether these attributions are also linked to young adults' actual behaviour towards a crying infant. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Penalized regression procedures for variable selection in the potential outcomes framework

PubMed Central

Ghosh, Debashis; Zhu, Yeying; Coffman, Donna L.

2015-01-01

A recent topic of much interest in causal inference is model selection. In this article, we describe a framework in which to consider penalized regression approaches to variable selection for causal effects. The framework leads to a simple ‘impute, then select’ class of procedures that is agnostic to the type of imputation algorithm as well as penalized regression used. It also clarifies how model selection involves a multivariate regression model for causal inference problems, and that these methods can be applied for identifying subgroups in which treatment effects are homogeneous. Analogies and links with the literature on machine learning methods, missing data and imputation are drawn. A difference LASSO algorithm is defined, along with its multiple imputation analogues. The procedures are illustrated using a well-known right heart catheterization dataset. PMID:25628185

Urbanism and life satisfaction among the aged.

PubMed

Liang, J; Warfel, B L

1983-01-01

This study examines the impact of urbanism on the causal mechanisms by which life satisfaction is determined. Although the links between the type of community and life satisfaction have been the foci of many studies, the findings are by no means conclusive. Some have found that the rural elderly express greater satisfaction, others have not. Such a discrepancy may be due to (a) the neglect of other variables, (b) a lack of explicit causal specifications, and (c) the failure to distinguish main effects from interaction effects. In this study a causal model that incorporates urbanism as a polytomous variable and its interaction effects has been proposed. The model was evaluated by using four data sets with sample sizes ranging from 961 to 3,996. Urbanism was found to have indirect main effects as well as interaction effects on life satisfaction.

Thinking or feeling? An exploratory study of maternal scaffolding, child mental state talk, and emotion understanding in language-impaired and typically developing school-aged children.

PubMed

Yuill, Nicola; Little, Sarah

2018-06-01

Mother-child mental state talk (MST) supports children's developing social-emotional understanding. In typically developing (TD) children, family conversations about emotion, cognition, and causes have been linked to children's emotion understanding. Specific language impairment (SLI) may compromise developing emotion understanding and adjustment. We investigated emotion understanding in children with SLI and TD, in relation to mother-child conversation. Specifically, is cognitive, emotion, or causal MST more important for child emotion understanding and how might maternal scaffolding support this? Nine 5- to 9-year-old children with SLI and nine age-matched typically developing (TD) children, and their mothers. We assessed children's language, emotion understanding and reported behavioural adjustment. Mother-child conversations were coded for MST, including emotion, cognition, and causal talk, and for scaffolding of causal talk. Children with SLI scored lower than TD children on emotion understanding and adjustment. Mothers in each group provided similar amounts of cognitive, emotion, and causal talk, but SLI children used proportionally less cognitive and causal talk than TD children did, and more such child talk predicted better child emotion understanding. Child emotion talk did not differ between groups and did not predict emotion understanding. Both groups participated in maternal-scaffolded causal talk, but causal talk about emotion was more frequent in TD children, and such talk predicted higher emotion understanding. Cognitive and causal language scaffolded by mothers provides tools for articulating increasingly complex ideas about emotion, predicting children's emotion understanding. Our study provides a robust method for studying scaffolding processes for understanding causes of emotion. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

How readers understand causal and correlational expressions used in news headlines.

PubMed

Adams, Rachel C; Sumner, Petroc; Vivian-Griffiths, Solveiga; Barrington, Amy; Williams, Andrew; Boivin, Jacky; Chambers, Christopher D; Bott, Lewis

2017-03-01

[Correction Notice: An Erratum for this article was reported in Vol 23(1) of Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied (see record 2016-59631-001). In the article, the fourth author was inadvertently omitted from the advance online version. Also, the second paragraph of the author note should have included the following: "Amy Barrington contributed to the design and data collection for Experiments 2 and 3. We thank the following undergraduate students for contributions to Experiment 1 and pilot work leading up to the project: Laura Benjamin, Cecily Donnelly, Cameron Dunlop, Rebecca Emerson, Rose Fisher, Laura Jones, Olivia Manship, Hannah McCarthy, Naomi Scott, Eliza Walwyn-Jones, Leanne Whelan, and Joe Wilton." All versions of this article have been corrected.] Science-related news stories can have a profound impact on how the public make decisions. The current study presents 4 experiments that examine how participants understand scientific expressions used in news headlines. The expressions concerned causal and correlational relationships between variables (e.g., "being breast fed makes children behave better"). Participants rated or ranked headlines according to the extent that one variable caused the other. Our results suggest that participants differentiate between 3 distinct categories of relationship: direct cause statements (e.g., "makes," "increases"), which were interpreted as the most causal; can cause statements (e.g., "can make," "can increase"); and moderate cause statements (e.g., "might cause," "linked," "associated with"), but do not consistently distinguish within the last group despite the logical distinction between cause and association. On the basis of this evidence, we make recommendations for appropriately communicating cause and effect in news headlines. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Untangling individual variation in natural populations: ecological, genetic and epigenetic correlates of long-term inequality in herbivory.

PubMed

Herrera, C M; Bazaga, P

2011-04-01

Individual variation in ecologically important features of organisms is a crucial element in ecology and evolution, yet disentangling its underlying causes is difficult in natural populations. We applied a genomic scan approach using amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) markers to quantify the genetic basis of long-term individual differences in herbivory by mammals at a wild population of the violet Viola cazorlensis monitored for two decades. In addition, methylation-sensitive amplified polymorphism (MSAP) analyses were used to investigate the association between browsing damage and epigenetic characteristics of individuals, an aspect that has been not previously explored for any wild plant. Structural equation modelling was used to identify likely causal structures linking genotypes, epigenotypes and herbivory. Individuals of V. cazorlensis differed widely in the incidence of browsing mammals over the 20-year study period. Six AFLP markers (1.6% of total) were significantly related to herbivory, accounting altogether for 44% of population-wide variance in herbivory levels. MSAP analyses revealed considerable epigenetic variation among individuals, and differential browsing damage was significantly related to variation in multilocus epigenotypes. In addition, variation across plants in epigenetic characteristics was related to variation in several herbivory-related AFLP markers. Statistical comparison of alternative causal models suggested that individual differences in herbivory are the outcome of a complex causal structure where genotypes and epigenotypes are interconnected and have direct and indirect effects on herbivory. Insofar as methylation states of MSAP markers influential on herbivory are transgenerationally heritable, herbivore-driven evolutionary changes at the study population will involve correlated changes in genotypic and epigenotypic distributions. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Causal modeling of secondary science students' intentions to enroll in physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crawley, Frank E.; Black, Carolyn B.

The purpose of this study was to explore the utility of the theory of planned behavior model developed by social psychologists for understanding and predicting the behavioral intentions of secondary science students regarding enrolling in physics. In particular, the study used a three-stage causal model to investigate the links from external variables to behavioral, normative, and control beliefs; from beliefs to attitudes, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control; and from attitudes, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control to behavioral intentions. The causal modeling method was employed to verify the underlying causes of secondary science students' interest in enrolling physics as predicted in the theory of planned behavior. Data were collected from secondary science students (N = 264) residing in a central Texas city who were enrolled in earth science (8th grade), biology (9th grade), physical science (10th grade), or chemistry (11th grade) courses. Cause-and-effect relationships were analyzed using path analysis to test the direct effects of model variables specified in the theory of planned behavior. Results of this study indicated that students' intention to enroll in a high school physics course was determined by their attitude toward enrollment and their degree of perceived behavioral control. Attitude, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control were, in turn, formed as a result of specific beliefs that students held about enrolling in physics. Grade level and career goals were found to be instrumental in shaping students' attitude. Immediate family members were identified as major referents in the social support system for enrolling in physics. Course and extracurricular conflicts and the fear of failure were shown to be the primary beliefs obstructing students' perception of control over physics enrollment. Specific recommendations are offered to researchers and practitioners for strengthening secondary school students' intentions to study physics.

Healthier students are better learners: a missing link in school reforms to close the achievement gap.

PubMed

Basch, Charles E

2011-10-01

This article provides an introduction to the October 2011 special issue of the Journal of School Health on "Healthier Students Are Better Learners." Literature was reviewed and synthesized to identify health problems affecting school-aged youth that are highly prevalent, disproportionately affect urban minority youth, directly and indirectly causally affect academic achievement, and can be feasibly and effectively addressed through school health programs and services. Based on these criteria, 7 educationally relevant health disparities were selected as strategic priorities to help close the achievement gap: (1) vision, (2) asthma, (3) teen pregnancy, (4) aggression and violence, (5) physical activity, (6) breakfast, and (7) inattention and hyperactivity. Research clearly shows that these health problems influence students' motivation and ability to learn. Disparities among urban minority youth are outlined, along with the causal pathways through which each adversely affects academic achievement, including sensory perceptions, cognition, school connectedness, absenteeism, and dropping out. Evidence-based approaches that schools can implement to address these problems are presented. These health problems and the causal pathways they influence have interactive and a synergistic effect, which is why they must be addressed collectively using a coordinated approach. No matter how well teachers are prepared to teach, no matter what accountability measures are put in place, no matter what governing structures are established for schools, educational progress will be profoundly limited if students are not motivated and able to learn. Particular health problems play a major role in limiting the motivation and ability to learn of urban minority youth. This is why reducing these disparities through a coordinated approach warrants validation as a cohesive school improvement initiative to close the achievement gap. Local, state, and national policies for implementing this recommendation are suggested. © 2011, American School Health Association.

Transformational Leadership, Transactional Contingent Reward, and Organizational Identification: The Mediating Effect of Perceived Innovation and Goal Culture Orientations.

PubMed

Xenikou, Athena

2017-01-01

Purpose: The aim of this research was to investigate the effect of transformational leadership and transactional contingent reward as complementary, but distinct, forms of leadership on facets of organizational identification via the perception of innovation and goal organizational values. Design/Methodology/Approach: Three studies were carried out implementing either a measurement of mediation or experimental-causal-chain design to test for the hypothesized effects. Findings: The measurement of mediation study showed that transformational leadership had a positive direct and indirect effect, via innovation value orientation, on cognitive identification, whereas transactional contingent reward was more strongly related to affective, rather than cognitive, identification, and goal orientation was a mediator of their link. The findings of the two experimental-causal-chain studies further supported the hypothesized effects. Transformational leadership was found to lead subordinates to perceive the culture as more innovative compared to transactional contingent reward, whereas transactional contingent reward led employees to perceive the culture as more goal, than innovation, oriented. Finally, innovation, compared to goal, value orientation increased cognitive identification, while goal orientation facilitated affective, rather than cognitive, identification. Implications: The practical implications involve the development of strategies organizations can apply, such as leadership training programs, to strengthen their ties with their employees, which, in turn, may have a positive impact on in-role, as well as extra-role, behaviors. Originality/Value: The originality of this research concerns the identification of distinct mechanisms explaining the effect of transformational leadership and transactional contingent reward on cognitive and affective identification applying an organizational culture perspective and a combination of measurement and causal mediation designs.

Model-Free Reconstruction of Excitatory Neuronal Connectivity from Calcium Imaging Signals

PubMed Central

Stetter, Olav; Battaglia, Demian; Soriano, Jordi; Geisel, Theo

2012-01-01

A systematic assessment of global neural network connectivity through direct electrophysiological assays has remained technically infeasible, even in simpler systems like dissociated neuronal cultures. We introduce an improved algorithmic approach based on Transfer Entropy to reconstruct structural connectivity from network activity monitored through calcium imaging. We focus in this study on the inference of excitatory synaptic links. Based on information theory, our method requires no prior assumptions on the statistics of neuronal firing and neuronal connections. The performance of our algorithm is benchmarked on surrogate time series of calcium fluorescence generated by the simulated dynamics of a network with known ground-truth topology. We find that the functional network topology revealed by Transfer Entropy depends qualitatively on the time-dependent dynamic state of the network (bursting or non-bursting). Thus by conditioning with respect to the global mean activity, we improve the performance of our method. This allows us to focus the analysis to specific dynamical regimes of the network in which the inferred functional connectivity is shaped by monosynaptic excitatory connections, rather than by collective synchrony. Our method can discriminate between actual causal influences between neurons and spurious non-causal correlations due to light scattering artifacts, which inherently affect the quality of fluorescence imaging. Compared to other reconstruction strategies such as cross-correlation or Granger Causality methods, our method based on improved Transfer Entropy is remarkably more accurate. In particular, it provides a good estimation of the excitatory network clustering coefficient, allowing for discrimination between weakly and strongly clustered topologies. Finally, we demonstrate the applicability of our method to analyses of real recordings of in vitro disinhibited cortical cultures where we suggest that excitatory connections are characterized by an elevated level of clustering compared to a random graph (although not extreme) and can be markedly non-local. PMID:22927808

Transformational Leadership, Transactional Contingent Reward, and Organizational Identification: The Mediating Effect of Perceived Innovation and Goal Culture Orientations

PubMed Central

Xenikou, Athena

2017-01-01

Purpose: The aim of this research was to investigate the effect of transformational leadership and transactional contingent reward as complementary, but distinct, forms of leadership on facets of organizational identification via the perception of innovation and goal organizational values. Design/Methodology/Approach: Three studies were carried out implementing either a measurement of mediation or experimental-causal-chain design to test for the hypothesized effects. Findings: The measurement of mediation study showed that transformational leadership had a positive direct and indirect effect, via innovation value orientation, on cognitive identification, whereas transactional contingent reward was more strongly related to affective, rather than cognitive, identification, and goal orientation was a mediator of their link. The findings of the two experimental-causal-chain studies further supported the hypothesized effects. Transformational leadership was found to lead subordinates to perceive the culture as more innovative compared to transactional contingent reward, whereas transactional contingent reward led employees to perceive the culture as more goal, than innovation, oriented. Finally, innovation, compared to goal, value orientation increased cognitive identification, while goal orientation facilitated affective, rather than cognitive, identification. Implications: The practical implications involve the development of strategies organizations can apply, such as leadership training programs, to strengthen their ties with their employees, which, in turn, may have a positive impact on in-role, as well as extra-role, behaviors. Originality/Value: The originality of this research concerns the identification of distinct mechanisms explaining the effect of transformational leadership and transactional contingent reward on cognitive and affective identification applying an organizational culture perspective and a combination of measurement and causal mediation designs. PMID:29093688

Multiple-input multiple-output causal strategies for gene selection.

PubMed

Bontempi, Gianluca; Haibe-Kains, Benjamin; Desmedt, Christine; Sotiriou, Christos; Quackenbush, John

2011-11-25

Traditional strategies for selecting variables in high dimensional classification problems aim to find sets of maximally relevant variables able to explain the target variations. If these techniques may be effective in generalization accuracy they often do not reveal direct causes. The latter is essentially related to the fact that high correlation (or relevance) does not imply causation. In this study, we show how to efficiently incorporate causal information into gene selection by moving from a single-input single-output to a multiple-input multiple-output setting. We show in synthetic case study that a better prioritization of causal variables can be obtained by considering a relevance score which incorporates a causal term. In addition we show, in a meta-analysis study of six publicly available breast cancer microarray datasets, that the improvement occurs also in terms of accuracy. The biological interpretation of the results confirms the potential of a causal approach to gene selection. Integrating causal information into gene selection algorithms is effective both in terms of prediction accuracy and biological interpretation.

Linear and nonlinear causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in China: New evidence based on wavelet analysis

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

The energy-growth nexus has important policy implications for economic development. The results from many past studies that investigated the causality direction of this nexus can lead to misleading policy guidance. Using data on China from 1953 to 2013, this study shows that an application of causality test on the time series of energy consumption and national output has masked a lot of information. The Toda-Yamamoto test with bootstrapped critical values and the newly proposed non-linear causality test reveal no causal relationship. However, a further application of these tests using series in different time-frequency domain obtained from wavelet decomposition indicates that while energy consumption Granger causes economic growth in the short run, the reverse is true in the medium term. A bidirectional causal relationship is found for the long run. This approach has proven to be superior in unveiling information on the energy-growth nexus that are useful for policy planning over different time horizons. PMID:29782534

Transfer Entropy as a Log-Likelihood Ratio

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnett, Lionel; Bossomaier, Terry

2012-09-01

Transfer entropy, an information-theoretic measure of time-directed information transfer between joint processes, has steadily gained popularity in the analysis of complex stochastic dynamics in diverse fields, including the neurosciences, ecology, climatology, and econometrics. We show that for a broad class of predictive models, the log-likelihood ratio test statistic for the null hypothesis of zero transfer entropy is a consistent estimator for the transfer entropy itself. For finite Markov chains, furthermore, no explicit model is required. In the general case, an asymptotic χ2 distribution is established for the transfer entropy estimator. The result generalizes the equivalence in the Gaussian case of transfer entropy and Granger causality, a statistical notion of causal influence based on prediction via vector autoregression, and establishes a fundamental connection between directed information transfer and causality in the Wiener-Granger sense.

Transfer entropy as a log-likelihood ratio.

PubMed

Barnett, Lionel; Bossomaier, Terry

2012-09-28

Transfer entropy, an information-theoretic measure of time-directed information transfer between joint processes, has steadily gained popularity in the analysis of complex stochastic dynamics in diverse fields, including the neurosciences, ecology, climatology, and econometrics. We show that for a broad class of predictive models, the log-likelihood ratio test statistic for the null hypothesis of zero transfer entropy is a consistent estimator for the transfer entropy itself. For finite Markov chains, furthermore, no explicit model is required. In the general case, an asymptotic χ2 distribution is established for the transfer entropy estimator. The result generalizes the equivalence in the Gaussian case of transfer entropy and Granger causality, a statistical notion of causal influence based on prediction via vector autoregression, and establishes a fundamental connection between directed information transfer and causality in the Wiener-Granger sense.

Automated interviews on clinical case reports to elicit directed acyclic graphs.

PubMed

Luciani, Davide; Stefanini, Federico M

2012-05-01

Setting up clinical reports within hospital information systems makes it possible to record a variety of clinical presentations. Directed acyclic graphs (Dags) offer a useful way of representing causal relations in clinical problem domains and are at the core of many probabilistic models described in the medical literature, like Bayesian networks. However, medical practitioners are not usually trained to elicit Dag features. Part of the difficulty lies in the application of the concept of direct causality before selecting all the causal variables of interest for a specific patient. We designed an automated interview to tutor medical doctors in the development of Dags to represent their understanding of clinical reports. Medical notions were analyzed to find patterns in medical reasoning that can be followed by algorithms supporting the elicitation of causal Dags. Clinical relevance was defined to help formulate only relevant questions by driving an expert's attention towards variables causally related to nodes already inserted in the graph. Key procedural features of the proposed interview are described by four algorithms. The automated interview comprises questions on medical notions, phrased in medical terms. The first elicitation session produces questions concerning the patient's chief complaints and the outcomes related to diseases serving as diagnostic hypotheses, their observable manifestations and risk factors. The second session focuses on questions that refine the initial causal paths by considering syndromes, dysfunctions, pathogenic anomalies, biases and effect modifiers. A case study concerning a gastro-enterological problem and one dealing with an infected patient illustrate the output produced by the algorithms, depending on the answers provided by the doctor. The proposed elicitation framework is characterized by strong consistency with medical background and by a progressive introduction of relevant medical topics. Revision and testing of the subjectively elicited Dag is performed by matching the collected answers with the evidence included in accepted sources of biomedical knowledge. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Understanding Productivity Links: A Research Agenda.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stevens, David

1981-01-01

This paper covers three fundamental aspects of productivity analysis: concepts, measurement issues, and a brief consideration of causal forces. It also explores recent trends in partial labor productivity, building on terms and concepts introduced in the first part of this article. (CT)

Instantaneous and causal connectivity in resting state brain networks derived from functional MRI data.

PubMed

Deshpande, Gopikrishna; Santhanam, Priya; Hu, Xiaoping

2011-01-15

Most neuroimaging studies of resting state networks have concentrated on functional connectivity (FC) based on instantaneous correlation in a single network. In this study we investigated both FC and effective connectivity (EC) based on Granger causality of four important networks at resting state derived from functional magnetic resonance imaging data - default mode network (DMN), hippocampal cortical memory network (HCMN), dorsal attention network (DAN) and fronto-parietal control network (FPCN). A method called correlation-purged Granger causality analysis was used, not only enabling the simultaneous evaluation of FC and EC of all networks using a single multivariate model, but also accounting for the interaction between them resulting from the smoothing of neuronal activity by hemodynamics. FC was visualized using a force-directed layout upon which causal interactions were overlaid. FC results revealed that DAN is very tightly coupled compared to the other networks while the DMN forms the backbone around which the other networks amalgamate. The pattern of bidirectional causal interactions indicates that posterior cingulate and posterior inferior parietal lobule of DMN act as major hubs. The pattern of unidirectional causal paths revealed that hippocampus and anterior prefrontal cortex (aPFC) receive major inputs, likely reflecting memory encoding/retrieval and cognitive integration, respectively. Major outputs emanating from anterior insula and middle temporal area, which are directed at aPFC, may carry information about interoceptive awareness and external environment, respectively, into aPFC for integration, supporting the hypothesis that aPFC-seeded FPCN acts as a control network. Our findings indicate the following. First, regions whose activities are not synchronized interact via time-delayed causal influences. Second, the causal interactions are organized such that cingulo-parietal regions act as hubs. Finally, segregation of different resting state networks is not clear cut but only by soft boundaries. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Compulsive exercise as a mediator between clinical perfectionism and eating pathology.

PubMed

Egan, Sarah J; Bodill, Kate; Watson, Hunna J; Valentine, Emily; Shu, Chloe; Hagger, Martin S

2017-01-01

The aim of this study was to examine whether compulsive exercise mediates the relationship between clinical perfectionism and eating pathology, based on the cognitive behavioral model of compulsive exercise. Participants were 368 adults who participated regularly in sport/exercise and completed online measures of perfectionism, compulsive exercise and eating disorders. In support of the well-established link between perfectionism and eating disorders, clinical perfectionism predicted eating pathology both directly and indirectly mediated by compulsive exercise. In addition, there were also direct effects of clinical perfectionism on the avoidance/rule-driven behavior, weight control, and mood improvement subscales of the Compulsive Exercise Test (CET). There was a direct effect of the CET weight control subscale on eating pathology and a negative direct effect of the CET subscale mood improvement on eating pathology. Findings lend support to the cognitive behavioral model of compulsive exercise in which clinical perfectionism is conceptualized as related to eating disorders directly and indirectly through the mediation of compulsive exercise. Compulsive exercise was also found to have a direct effect on eating disorders. Compulsive exercise may be a symptom of eating pathology, rather than an antecedent, however causal inferences could not be established given the correlational design. Longitudinal research using cross-lagged panel designs to examine a bidirectional relationship between compulsive exercise and eating disorders is needed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Individuals Who Believe in the Paranormal Expose Themselves to Biased Information and Develop More Causal Illusions than Nonbelievers in the Laboratory.

PubMed

Blanco, Fernando; Barberia, Itxaso; Matute, Helena

2015-01-01

In the reasoning literature, paranormal beliefs have been proposed to be linked to two related phenomena: a biased perception of causality and a biased information-sampling strategy (believers tend to test fewer hypotheses and prefer confirmatory information). In parallel, recent contingency learning studies showed that, when two unrelated events coincide frequently, individuals interpret this ambiguous pattern as evidence of a causal relationship. Moreover, the latter studies indicate that sampling more cause-present cases than cause-absent cases strengthens the illusion. If paranormal believers actually exhibit a biased exposure to the available information, they should also show this bias in the contingency learning task: they would in fact expose themselves to more cause-present cases than cause-absent trials. Thus, by combining the two traditions, we predicted that believers in the paranormal would be more vulnerable to developing causal illusions in the laboratory than nonbelievers because there is a bias in the information they experience. In this study, we found that paranormal beliefs (measured using a questionnaire) correlated with causal illusions (assessed by using contingency judgments). As expected, this correlation was mediated entirely by the believers' tendency to expose themselves to more cause-present cases. The association between paranormal beliefs, biased exposure to information, and causal illusions was only observed for ambiguous materials (i.e., the noncontingent condition). In contrast, the participants' ability to detect causal relationships which did exist (i.e., the contingent condition) was unaffected by their susceptibility to believe in paranormal phenomena.

Individuals Who Believe in the Paranormal Expose Themselves to Biased Information and Develop More Causal Illusions than Nonbelievers in the Laboratory

PubMed Central

Blanco, Fernando; Barberia, Itxaso; Matute, Helena

2015-01-01

In the reasoning literature, paranormal beliefs have been proposed to be linked to two related phenomena: a biased perception of causality and a biased information-sampling strategy (believers tend to test fewer hypotheses and prefer confirmatory information). In parallel, recent contingency learning studies showed that, when two unrelated events coincide frequently, individuals interpret this ambiguous pattern as evidence of a causal relationship. Moreover, the latter studies indicate that sampling more cause-present cases than cause-absent cases strengthens the illusion. If paranormal believers actually exhibit a biased exposure to the available information, they should also show this bias in the contingency learning task: they would in fact expose themselves to more cause-present cases than cause-absent trials. Thus, by combining the two traditions, we predicted that believers in the paranormal would be more vulnerable to developing causal illusions in the laboratory than nonbelievers because there is a bias in the information they experience. In this study, we found that paranormal beliefs (measured using a questionnaire) correlated with causal illusions (assessed by using contingency judgments). As expected, this correlation was mediated entirely by the believers' tendency to expose themselves to more cause-present cases. The association between paranormal beliefs, biased exposure to information, and causal illusions was only observed for ambiguous materials (i.e., the noncontingent condition). In contrast, the participants' ability to detect causal relationships which did exist (i.e., the contingent condition) was unaffected by their susceptibility to believe in paranormal phenomena. PMID:26177025

Structure induction in diagnostic causal reasoning.

PubMed

Meder, Björn; Mayrhofer, Ralf; Waldmann, Michael R

2014-07-01

Our research examines the normative and descriptive adequacy of alternative computational models of diagnostic reasoning from single effects to single causes. Many theories of diagnostic reasoning are based on the normative assumption that inferences from an effect to its cause should reflect solely the empirically observed conditional probability of cause given effect. We argue against this assumption, as it neglects alternative causal structures that may have generated the sample data. Our structure induction model of diagnostic reasoning takes into account the uncertainty regarding the underlying causal structure. A key prediction of the model is that diagnostic judgments should not only reflect the empirical probability of cause given effect but should also depend on the reasoner's beliefs about the existence and strength of the link between cause and effect. We confirmed this prediction in 2 studies and showed that our theory better accounts for human judgments than alternative theories of diagnostic reasoning. Overall, our findings support the view that in diagnostic reasoning people go "beyond the information given" and use the available data to make inferences on the (unobserved) causal rather than on the (observed) data level. (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Granger Causality Testing with Intensive Longitudinal Data.

PubMed

Molenaar, Peter C M

2018-06-01

The availability of intensive longitudinal data obtained by means of ambulatory assessment opens up new prospects for prevention research in that it allows the derivation of subject-specific dynamic networks of interacting variables by means of vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling. The dynamic networks thus obtained can be subjected to Granger causality testing in order to identify causal relations among the observed time-dependent variables. VARs have two equivalent representations: standard and structural. Results obtained with Granger causality testing depend upon which representation is chosen, yet no criteria exist on which this important choice can be based. A new equivalent representation is introduced called hybrid VARs with which the best representation can be chosen in a data-driven way. Partial directed coherence, a frequency-domain statistic for Granger causality testing, is shown to perform optimally when based on hybrid VARs. An application to real data is provided.

A Tutorial in Bayesian Potential Outcomes Mediation Analysis.

PubMed

Miočević, Milica; Gonzalez, Oscar; Valente, Matthew J; MacKinnon, David P

2018-01-01

Statistical mediation analysis is used to investigate intermediate variables in the relation between independent and dependent variables. Causal interpretation of mediation analyses is challenging because randomization of subjects to levels of the independent variable does not rule out the possibility of unmeasured confounders of the mediator to outcome relation. Furthermore, commonly used frequentist methods for mediation analysis compute the probability of the data given the null hypothesis, which is not the probability of a hypothesis given the data as in Bayesian analysis. Under certain assumptions, applying the potential outcomes framework to mediation analysis allows for the computation of causal effects, and statistical mediation in the Bayesian framework gives indirect effects probabilistic interpretations. This tutorial combines causal inference and Bayesian methods for mediation analysis so the indirect and direct effects have both causal and probabilistic interpretations. Steps in Bayesian causal mediation analysis are shown in the application to an empirical example.

'Mendelian randomization': an approach for exploring causal relations in epidemiology.

PubMed

Gupta, V; Walia, G K; Sachdeva, M P

2017-04-01

To assess the current status of Mendelian randomization (MR) approach in effectively influencing the observational epidemiology for examining causal relationships. Narrative review on studies related to principle, strengths, limitations, and achievements of MR approach. Observational epidemiological studies have repeatedly produced several beneficiary associations which were discarded when tested by standard randomized controlled trials (RCTs). The technique which is more feasible, highly similar to RCTs, and has the potential to establish a causal relationship between modifiable exposures and disease outcomes is known as MR. The technique uses genetic variants related to modifiable traits/exposures as instruments for detecting causal and directional associations with outcomes. In the last decade, the approach of MR has methodologically developed and progressed to a stage of high acceptance among the epidemiologists and is gradually expanding the landscape of causal relationships in non-communicable chronic diseases. Copyright © 2016 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Triangulation in aetiological epidemiology

PubMed Central

Lawlor, Debbie A; Tilling, Kate; Davey Smith, George

2016-01-01

Abstract Triangulation is the practice of obtaining more reliable answers to research questions through integrating results from several different approaches, where each approach has different key sources of potential bias that are unrelated to each other. With respect to causal questions in aetiological epidemiology, if the results of different approaches all point to the same conclusion, this strengthens confidence in the finding. This is particularly the case when the key sources of bias of some of the approaches would predict that findings would point in opposite directions if they were due to such biases. Where there are inconsistencies, understanding the key sources of bias of each approach can help to identify what further research is required to address the causal question. The aim of this paper is to illustrate how triangulation might be used to improve causal inference in aetiological epidemiology. We propose a minimum set of criteria for use in triangulation in aetiological epidemiology, summarize the key sources of bias of several approaches and describe how these might be integrated within a triangulation framework. We emphasize the importance of being explicit about the expected direction of bias within each approach, whenever this is possible, and seeking to identify approaches that would be expected to bias the true causal effect in different directions. We also note the importance, when comparing results, of taking account of differences in the duration and timing of exposures. We provide three examples to illustrate these points. PMID:28108528

Health Implications of High-Fructose Intake and Current Research12

PubMed Central

Dornas, Waleska C; de Lima, Wanderson G; Pedrosa, Maria L; Silva, Marcelo E

2015-01-01

Although fructose consumption has dramatically increased and is suspected to be causally linked to metabolic abnormalities, the mechanisms involved are still only partially understood. We discuss the available data and investigate the effects of dietary fructose on risk factors associated with metabolic disorders. The evidence suggests that fructose may be a predisposing cause in the development of insulin resistance in association with the induction of hypertriglyceridemia. Experiments in animals have shown this relation when they are fed diets very high in fructose or sucrose, and human studies also show this relation, although with conflicting results due to the heterogeneity of the studies. The link between increased fructose consumption and increases in uric acid also has been confirmed as a potential risk factor for metabolic syndrome, and insulin resistance/hyperinsulinemia may be causally related to the development of hypertension. Collectively, these results suggest a link between high fructose intake and insulin resistance, although future studies must be of reasonable duration, use defined populations, and improve comparisons regarding the effects of relevant doses of nutrients on specific endpoints to fully understand the effect of fructose intake in the absence of potential confounding factors. PMID:26567197

The influence of classroom peers on cognitive performance in children with behavioural problems.

PubMed

Bevington, J; Wishart, J G

1999-03-01

Identifying factors linked to underachievement is fundamental to understanding the associated academic difficulties and crucial to the development of effective intervention strategies. Underachievement in a number of academic domains has been shown to be associated with behavioural problems in the classroom but the nature of the association and direction of any causal link has yet to be clarified. This study explored the association between poor academic achievement and behavioural problems by examining the direct effects of peer presence on classroom performance in children with identified behavioural difficulties. Specifically, it was hypothesised that independent performance on a cognitive task would decrease as number of classroom peers present increased. A total of 24 children attending two special schools for children with emotional and behavioural difficulties participated in the study. Age range was 9-14 years. A within-subjects design was used in which performance on a set of perceptual/conceptual matching tasks was assessed under three conditions: the child working alone, alongside one other peer, or within a group of six. Measures of non-verbal intelligence and academic attainment were collected, along with teacher ratings of the severity of each child's problem behaviour. Performance was found to be significantly influenced by peer presence, both in terms of number of correct responses and time taken to complete the matching tasks. Direction of effects on these two performance indicators differed according to number of peers present. Findings highlight the importance of contextual factors in determining classroom performance in children with behavioural difficulties. Given the current pressure to educate all children in mainstream classes, findings have implications for classroom management.

CO2 directly modulates connexin 26 by formation of carbamate bridges between subunits

PubMed Central

Meigh, Louise; Greenhalgh, Sophie A; Rodgers, Thomas L; Cann, Martin J; Roper, David I; Dale, Nicholas

2013-01-01

Homeostatic regulation of the partial pressure of CO2 (PCO2) is vital for life. Sensing of pH has been proposed as a sufficient proxy for determination of PCO2 and direct CO2-sensing largely discounted. Here we show that connexin 26 (Cx26) hemichannels, causally linked to respiratory chemosensitivity, are directly modulated by CO2. A ‘carbamylation motif’, present in CO2-sensitive connexins (Cx26, Cx30, Cx32) but absent from a CO2-insensitive connexin (Cx31), comprises Lys125 and four further amino acids that orient Lys125 towards Arg104 of the adjacent subunit of the connexin hexamer. Introducing the carbamylation motif into Cx31 created a mutant hemichannel (mCx31) that was opened by increases in PCO2. Mutation of the carbamylation motif in Cx26 and mCx31 destroyed CO2 sensitivity. Course-grained computational modelling of Cx26 demonstrated that the proposed carbamate bridge between Lys125 and Arg104 biases the hemichannel to the open state. Carbamylation of Cx26 introduces a new transduction principle for physiological sensing of CO2. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.01213.001 PMID:24220509

Heavy rainfall increases nestling mortality of an Arctic top predator: experimental evidence and long-term trend in peregrine falcons.

PubMed

Anctil, Alexandre; Franke, Alastair; Bêty, Joël

2014-03-01

Although animal population dynamics have often been correlated with fluctuations in precipitation, causal relationships have rarely been demonstrated in wild birds. We combined nest observations with a field experiment to investigate the direct effect of rainfall on survival of peregrine falcon (Falco peregrinus) nestlings in the Canadian Arctic. We then used historical data to evaluate if recent changes in the precipitation regime could explain the long-term decline of falcon annual productivity. Rainfall directly caused more than one-third of the recorded nestling mortalities. Juveniles were especially affected by heavy rainstorms (≥8 mm/day). Nestlings sheltered from rainfall by a nest box had significantly higher survival rates. We found that the increase in the frequency of heavy rain over the last three decades is likely an important factor explaining the recent decline in falcon nestling survival rates, and hence the decrease in annual breeding productivity of the population. Our study is among the first experimental demonstrations of the direct link between rainfall and survival in wild birds, and clearly indicates that top arctic predators can be significantly impacted by changes in precipitation regime.

A Tox21 Approach to Altered Epigenetic Landscapes: Assessing Epigenetic Toxicity Pathways Leading to Altered Gene Expression and Oncogenic Transformation In Vitro

PubMed Central

Parfett, Craig L.; Desaulniers, Daniel

2017-01-01

An emerging vision for toxicity testing in the 21st century foresees in vitro assays assuming the leading role in testing for chemical hazards, including testing for carcinogenicity. Toxicity will be determined by monitoring key steps in functionally validated molecular pathways, using tests designed to reveal chemically-induced perturbations that lead to adverse phenotypic endpoints in cultured human cells. Risk assessments would subsequently be derived from the causal in vitro endpoints and concentration vs. effect data extrapolated to human in vivo concentrations. Much direct experimental evidence now shows that disruption of epigenetic processes by chemicals is a carcinogenic mode of action that leads to altered gene functions playing causal roles in cancer initiation and progression. In assessing chemical safety, it would therefore be advantageous to consider an emerging class of carcinogens, the epigenotoxicants, with the ability to change chromatin and/or DNA marks by direct or indirect effects on the activities of enzymes (writers, erasers/editors, remodelers and readers) that convey the epigenetic information. Evidence is reviewed supporting a strategy for in vitro hazard identification of carcinogens that induce toxicity through disturbance of functional epigenetic pathways in human somatic cells, leading to inactivated tumour suppressor genes and carcinogenesis. In the context of human cell transformation models, these in vitro pathway measurements ensure high biological relevance to the apical endpoint of cancer. Four causal mechanisms participating in pathways to persistent epigenetic gene silencing were considered: covalent histone modification, nucleosome remodeling, non-coding RNA interaction and DNA methylation. Within these four interacting mechanisms, 25 epigenetic toxicity pathway components (SET1, MLL1, KDM5, G9A, SUV39H1, SETDB1, EZH2, JMJD3, CBX7, CBX8, BMI, SUZ12, HP1, MPP8, DNMT1, DNMT3A, DNMT3B, TET1, MeCP2, SETDB2, BAZ2A, UHRF1, CTCF, HOTAIR and ANRIL) were found to have experimental evidence showing that functional perturbations played “driver” roles in human cellular transformation. Measurement of epigenotoxicants presents challenges for short-term carcinogenicity testing, especially in the high-throughput modes emphasized in the Tox21 chemicals testing approach. There is need to develop and validate in vitro tests to detect both, locus-specific, and genome-wide, epigenetic alterations with causal links to oncogenic cellular phenotypes. Some recent examples of cell-based high throughput chemical screening assays are presented that have been applied or have shown potential for application to epigenetic endpoints. PMID:28587163

Cognitive Demand Differences in Causal Inferences: Characters' Plans Are More Difficult to Comprehend than Physical Causation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shears, Connie; Miller, Vanessa; Ball, Megan; Hawkins, Amanda; Griggs, Janna; Varner, Andria

2007-01-01

Readers may draw knowledge-based inferences to connect sentences in text differently depending on the knowledge domain being accessed. Most prior research has focused on the direction of the causal explanation (predictive vs. backward) without regard to the knowledge domain drawn on to support comprehension. We suggest that less cognitive effort…

Granger causality for state-space models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnett, Lionel; Seth, Anil K.

2015-04-01

Granger causality has long been a prominent method for inferring causal interactions between stochastic variables for a broad range of complex physical systems. However, it has been recognized that a moving average (MA) component in the data presents a serious confound to Granger causal analysis, as routinely performed via autoregressive (AR) modeling. We solve this problem by demonstrating that Granger causality may be calculated simply and efficiently from the parameters of a state-space (SS) model. Since SS models are equivalent to autoregressive moving average models, Granger causality estimated in this fashion is not degraded by the presence of a MA component. This is of particular significance when the data has been filtered, downsampled, observed with noise, or is a subprocess of a higher dimensional process, since all of these operations—commonplace in application domains as diverse as climate science, econometrics, and the neurosciences—induce a MA component. We show how Granger causality, conditional and unconditional, in both time and frequency domains, may be calculated directly from SS model parameters via solution of a discrete algebraic Riccati equation. Numerical simulations demonstrate that Granger causality estimators thus derived have greater statistical power and smaller bias than AR estimators. We also discuss how the SS approach facilitates relaxation of the assumptions of linearity, stationarity, and homoscedasticity underlying current AR methods, thus opening up potentially significant new areas of research in Granger causal analysis.

Extended causal modeling to assess Partial Directed Coherence in multiple time series with significant instantaneous interactions.

PubMed

Faes, Luca; Nollo, Giandomenico

2010-11-01

The Partial Directed Coherence (PDC) and its generalized formulation (gPDC) are popular tools for investigating, in the frequency domain, the concept of Granger causality among multivariate (MV) time series. PDC and gPDC are formalized in terms of the coefficients of an MV autoregressive (MVAR) model which describes only the lagged effects among the time series and forsakes instantaneous effects. However, instantaneous effects are known to affect linear parametric modeling, and are likely to occur in experimental time series. In this study, we investigate the impact on the assessment of frequency domain causality of excluding instantaneous effects from the model underlying PDC evaluation. Moreover, we propose the utilization of an extended MVAR model including both instantaneous and lagged effects. This model is used to assess PDC either in accordance with the definition of Granger causality when considering only lagged effects (iPDC), or with an extended form of causality, when we consider both instantaneous and lagged effects (ePDC). The approach is first evaluated on three theoretical examples of MVAR processes, which show that the presence of instantaneous correlations may produce misleading profiles of PDC and gPDC, while ePDC and iPDC derived from the extended model provide here a correct interpretation of extended and lagged causality. It is then applied to representative examples of cardiorespiratory and EEG MV time series. They suggest that ePDC and iPDC are better interpretable than PDC and gPDC in terms of the known cardiovascular and neural physiologies.

Causal network analysis of head and neck keloid tissue identifies potential master regulators.

PubMed

Garcia-Rodriguez, Laura; Jones, Lamont; Chen, Kang Mei; Datta, Indrani; Divine, George; Worsham, Maria J

2016-10-01

To generate novel insights and hypotheses in keloid development from potential master regulators. Prospective cohort. Six fresh keloid and six normal skin samples from 12 anonymous donors were used in a prospective cohort study. Genome-wide profiling was done previously on the cohort using the Infinium HumanMethylation450 BeadChip (Illumina, San Diego, CA). The 190 statistically significant CpG islands between keloid and normal tissue mapped to 152 genes (P < .05). The top 10 statistically significant genes (VAMP5, ACTR3C, GALNT3, KCNAB2, LRRC61, SCML4, SYNGR1, TNS1, PLEKHG5, PPP1R13-α, false discovery rate <.015) were uploaded into the Ingenuity Pathway Analysis software's Causal Network Analysis (QIAGEN, Redwood City, CA). To reflect expected gene expression direction in the context of methylation changes, the inverse of the methylation ratio from keloid versus normal tissue was used for the analysis. Causal Network Analysis identified disease-specific master regulator molecules based on downstream differentially expressed keloid-specific genes and expected directionality of expression (hypermethylated vs. hypomethylated). Causal Network Analysis software identified four hierarchical networks that included four master regulators (pyroxamide, tributyrin, PRKG2, and PENK) and 19 intermediate regulators. Causal Network Analysis of differentiated methylated gene data of keloid versus normal skin demonstrated four causal networks with four master regulators. These hierarchical networks suggest potential driver roles for their downstream keloid gene targets in the pathogenesis of the keloid phenotype, likely triggered due to perturbation/injury to normal tissue. NA Laryngoscope, 126:E319-E324, 2016. © 2016 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Spatio-temporal Granger causality: a new framework

PubMed Central

Luo, Qiang; Lu, Wenlian; Cheng, Wei; Valdes-Sosa, Pedro A.; Wen, Xiaotong; Ding, Mingzhou; Feng, Jianfeng

2015-01-01

That physiological oscillations of various frequencies are present in fMRI signals is the rule, not the exception. Herein, we propose a novel theoretical framework, spatio-temporal Granger causality, which allows us to more reliably and precisely estimate the Granger causality from experimental datasets possessing time-varying properties caused by physiological oscillations. Within this framework, Granger causality is redefined as a global index measuring the directed information flow between two time series with time-varying properties. Both theoretical analyses and numerical examples demonstrate that Granger causality is a monotonically increasing function of the temporal resolution used in the estimation. This is consistent with the general principle of coarse graining, which causes information loss by smoothing out very fine-scale details in time and space. Our results confirm that the Granger causality at the finer spatio-temporal scales considerably outperforms the traditional approach in terms of an improved consistency between two resting-state scans of the same subject. To optimally estimate the Granger causality, the proposed theoretical framework is implemented through a combination of several approaches, such as dividing the optimal time window and estimating the parameters at the fine temporal and spatial scales. Taken together, our approach provides a novel and robust framework for estimating the Granger causality from fMRI, EEG, and other related data. PMID:23643924

The causal role of breakfast in energy balance and health: a randomized controlled trial in lean adults.

PubMed

Betts, James A; Richardson, Judith D; Chowdhury, Enhad A; Holman, Geoffrey D; Tsintzas, Kostas; Thompson, Dylan

2014-08-01

Popular beliefs that breakfast is the most important meal of the day are grounded in cross-sectional observations that link breakfast to health, the causal nature of which remains to be explored under real-life conditions. The aim was to conduct a randomized controlled trial examining causal links between breakfast habits and all components of energy balance in free-living humans. The Bath Breakfast Project is a randomized controlled trial with repeated-measures at baseline and follow-up in a cohort in southwest England aged 21-60 y with dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry-derived fat mass indexes ≤11 kg/m² in women (n = 21) and ≤7.5 kg/m² in men (n = 12). Components of energy balance (resting metabolic rate, physical activity thermogenesis, energy intake) and 24-h glycemic responses were measured under free-living conditions with random allocation to daily breakfast (≥700 kcal before 1100) or extended fasting (0 kcal until 1200) for 6 wk, with baseline and follow-up measures of health markers (eg, hematology/biopsies). Contrary to popular belief, there was no metabolic adaptation to breakfast (eg, resting metabolic rate stable within 11 kcal/d), with limited subsequent suppression of appetite (energy intake remained 539 kcal/d greater than after fasting; 95% CI: 157, 920 kcal/d). Rather, physical activity thermogenesis was markedly higher with breakfast than with fasting (442 kcal/d; 95% CI: 34, 851 kcal/d). Body mass and adiposity did not differ between treatments at baseline or follow-up and neither did adipose tissue glucose uptake or systemic indexes of cardiovascular health. Continuously measured glycemia was more variable during the afternoon and evening with fasting than with breakfast by the final week of the intervention (CV: 3.9%; 95% CI: 0.1%, 7.8%). Daily breakfast is causally linked to higher physical activity thermogenesis in lean adults, with greater overall dietary energy intake but no change in resting metabolism. Cardiovascular health indexes were unaffected by either of the treatments, but breakfast maintained more stable afternoon and evening glycemia than did fasting.

The causal pie model: an epidemiological method applied to evolutionary biology and ecology

PubMed Central

Wensink, Maarten; Westendorp, Rudi G J; Baudisch, Annette

2014-01-01

A general concept for thinking about causality facilitates swift comprehension of results, and the vocabulary that belongs to the concept is instrumental in cross-disciplinary communication. The causal pie model has fulfilled this role in epidemiology and could be of similar value in evolutionary biology and ecology. In the causal pie model, outcomes result from sufficient causes. Each sufficient cause is made up of a “causal pie” of “component causes”. Several different causal pies may exist for the same outcome. If and only if all component causes of a sufficient cause are present, that is, a causal pie is complete, does the outcome occur. The effect of a component cause hence depends on the presence of the other component causes that constitute some causal pie. Because all component causes are equally and fully causative for the outcome, the sum of causes for some outcome exceeds 100%. The causal pie model provides a way of thinking that maps into a number of recurrent themes in evolutionary biology and ecology: It charts when component causes have an effect and are subject to natural selection, and how component causes affect selection on other component causes; which partitions of outcomes with respect to causes are feasible and useful; and how to view the composition of a(n apparently homogeneous) population. The diversity of specific results that is directly understood from the causal pie model is a test for both the validity and the applicability of the model. The causal pie model provides a common language in which results across disciplines can be communicated and serves as a template along which future causal analyses can be made. PMID:24963386

The causal pie model: an epidemiological method applied to evolutionary biology and ecology.

PubMed

Wensink, Maarten; Westendorp, Rudi G J; Baudisch, Annette

2014-05-01

A general concept for thinking about causality facilitates swift comprehension of results, and the vocabulary that belongs to the concept is instrumental in cross-disciplinary communication. The causal pie model has fulfilled this role in epidemiology and could be of similar value in evolutionary biology and ecology. In the causal pie model, outcomes result from sufficient causes. Each sufficient cause is made up of a "causal pie" of "component causes". Several different causal pies may exist for the same outcome. If and only if all component causes of a sufficient cause are present, that is, a causal pie is complete, does the outcome occur. The effect of a component cause hence depends on the presence of the other component causes that constitute some causal pie. Because all component causes are equally and fully causative for the outcome, the sum of causes for some outcome exceeds 100%. The causal pie model provides a way of thinking that maps into a number of recurrent themes in evolutionary biology and ecology: It charts when component causes have an effect and are subject to natural selection, and how component causes affect selection on other component causes; which partitions of outcomes with respect to causes are feasible and useful; and how to view the composition of a(n apparently homogeneous) population. The diversity of specific results that is directly understood from the causal pie model is a test for both the validity and the applicability of the model. The causal pie model provides a common language in which results across disciplines can be communicated and serves as a template along which future causal analyses can be made.

A complete graphical criterion for the adjustment formula in mediation analysis.

PubMed

Shpitser, Ilya; VanderWeele, Tyler J

2011-03-04

Various assumptions have been used in the literature to identify natural direct and indirect effects in mediation analysis. These effects are of interest because they allow for effect decomposition of a total effect into a direct and indirect effect even in the presence of interactions or non-linear models. In this paper, we consider the relation and interpretation of various identification assumptions in terms of causal diagrams interpreted as a set of non-parametric structural equations. We show that for such causal diagrams, two sets of assumptions for identification that have been described in the literature are in fact equivalent in the sense that if either set of assumptions holds for all models inducing a particular causal diagram, then the other set of assumptions will also hold for all models inducing that diagram. We moreover build on prior work concerning a complete graphical identification criterion for covariate adjustment for total effects to provide a complete graphical criterion for using covariate adjustment to identify natural direct and indirect effects. Finally, we show that this criterion is equivalent to the two sets of independence assumptions used previously for mediation analysis.

The role of Community Mobilization in maternal care provision for women in sub-Saharan Africa- A systematic review of studies using an experimental design.

PubMed

Muzyamba, Choolwe; Groot, Wim; Tomini, Sonila M; Pavlova, Milena

2017-08-29

While the role of community mobilization in improving maternal health outcomes of HIV positive women in sub-Saharan Africa is continuously emphasized, little is known about how legitimate these claims are. The aim of this study is to systematically review the empirical evidence on this issue. A systematic search was conducted in PuBMed, Scopus, Web of Science, MEDLINE, COCHRANE, Allied Health Literature, and Cumulative Index to Nursing. Our search identified 14 publications on the role of community mobilization in maternal care provision in sub-Saharan Africa, including both HIV negative women and women with HIV, that have used experimental research designs. Regarding HIV negative women, literature has demonstrated that community mobilization is a useful strategy for promoting both positive maternal process results and maternal health outcomes. Most of the literature on women with HIV has focused only on demonstrating the causal link between community mobilization and process results. There has been very little focus on demonstrating the causal link between community mobilization and maternal outcomes for women living with HIV. Overall, the results show that while there is some empirical evidence on a causal link between community mobilization and maternal health outcomes for HIV negative women, this kind of evidence is still missing for HIV positive women. Moreover, as shown by the studies, community mobilization as a maternal health strategy is still in its infancy. Given the gaps identified in our review, we recommend further research with the aim of providing sound evidence on the role of community mobilization in improving maternal health outcomes of women with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa.

What Causal Forces Shape Internet Connectivity at the AS-level?

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-01-01

business “peering relationship .” By focusing on the AS subgraph ASPC whose links repre- sent provider- customer relationships , we present an empirical... customer relationships may be determined in the actual Internet, we develop a new optimization-driven model for Internet growth at the ASPC level...among ASs. Two ASs are connected in an AS graph by a link only if they have a “peering relationship ” between them, e.g., provider- customer or peer-to

Expert explanations of honeybee losses in areas of extensive agriculture in France: Gaucho® compared with other supposed causal factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maxim, L.; van der Sluijs, J. P.

2010-01-01

Debates on causality are at the core of controversies as regards environmental changes. The present paper presents a new method for analyzing controversies on causality in a context of social debate and the results of its empirical testing. The case study used is the controversy as regards the role played by the insecticide Gaucho®, compared with other supposed causal factors, in the substantial honeybee (Apis mellifera L.) losses reported to have occurred in France between 1994 and 2004. The method makes use of expert elicitation of the perceived strength of evidence regarding each of Bradford Hill's causality criteria, as regards the link between each of eight possible causal factors identified in attempts to explain each of five signs observed in honeybee colonies. These judgments are elicited from stakeholders and experts involved in the debate, i.e., representatives of Bayer Cropscience, of the Ministry of Agriculture, of the French Food Safety Authority, of beekeepers and of public scientists. We show that the intense controversy observed in confused and passionate public discourses is much less salient when the various arguments are structured using causation criteria. The contradictions between the different expert views have a triple origin: (1) the lack of shared definition and quantification of the signs observed in colonies; (2) the lack of specialist knowledge on honeybees; and (3) the strategic discursive practices associated with the lack of trust between experts representing stakeholders having diverging stakes in the case.

Causality in cancer research: a journey through models in molecular epidemiology and their philosophical interpretation.

PubMed

Vineis, Paolo; Illari, Phyllis; Russo, Federica

2017-01-01

In the last decades, Systems Biology (including cancer research) has been driven by technology, statistical modelling and bioinformatics. In this paper we try to bring biological and philosophical thinking back. We thus aim at making different traditions of thought compatible: (a) causality in epidemiology and in philosophical theorizing-notably, the "sufficient-component-cause framework" and the "mark transmission" approach; (b) new acquisitions about disease pathogenesis, e.g. the "branched model" in cancer, and the role of biomarkers in this process; (c) the burgeoning of omics research, with a large number of "signals" and of associations that need to be interpreted. In the paper we summarize first the current views on carcinogenesis, and then explore the relevance of current philosophical interpretations of "cancer causes". We try to offer a unifying framework to incorporate biomarkers and omic data into causal models, referring to a position called "evidential pluralism". According to this view, causal reasoning is based on both "evidence of difference-making" (e.g. associations) and on "evidence of underlying biological mechanisms". We conceptualize the way scientists detect and trace signals in terms of information transmission , which is a generalization of the mark transmission theory developed by philosopher Wesley Salmon. Our approach is capable of helping us conceptualize how heterogeneous factors such as micro and macro-biological and psycho-social-are causally linked. This is important not only to understand cancer etiology, but also to design public health policies that target the right causal factors at the macro-level.

General dependencies and causality analysis of road traffic fatalities in OECD countries.

PubMed

Yaseen, Muhammad Rizwan; Ali, Qamar; Khan, Muhammad Tariq Iqbal

2018-05-07

The road traffic accidents were responsible for material and human loss which was equal to 2.8 to 5% of gross national product (GNP). However, literature does not explore the elasticity coefficients and nexus of road traffic fatalities with foreign direct investment, health expenditures, trade openness, mobile subscriptions, the number of researchers in R&D department, and environmental particulate matter. This study filled this research gap by exploring the nexus between road traffic fatalities, foreign direct investment, health expenditures, trade openness, mobile subscriptions, the number of researchers, and environmental particulate matter in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries by using panel data from 1995 to 2015. The panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound test was used for the detection of cointegration between the variables after checking the stationarity in selected variables with different panel unit root tests. Panel vector error correction model explored the causality of road traffic fatalities, foreign direct investment, PM2.5 in the environment, and trade openness in the long run. Road traffic fatalities showed short run bi-directional causality with foreign direct investment and health expenditures. The short run bi-directional causality was also observed between trade and foreign direct investment and cellular mobile subscriptions and foreign direct investment. The panel fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) and panel dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) showed the 0.947% reduction in road fatalities for 1% increase in the health expenditures in OECD countries. The significant reduction in road fatalities was also observed due to 1% increase in trade openness and researchers in R&D, which implies the importance of trade and research for road safety. It is required to invest in the health sector for the safety of precious human lives like the hospitals with latest medical equipment and improvement in the emergency services in the country. The research and development activities should be enhanced especially for the health and transportation sectors. The trade of environment-friendly technology should be promoted for the protection of environment.

The heart as an extravascular target of endothelin-1 in particulate matter-induced cardiac dysfunction

EPA Science Inventory

Exposure to particulate matter air pollution has been causally linked to cardiovascular disease in humans. Several broad and overlapping hypotheses describing the biological mechanisms by which particulate matter exposure leads to cardiovascular disease and cardiac dysfunction ha...

Population, Resources, Environment: An Uncertain Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Repetto, Robert

1987-01-01

The links between population growth, resource use, and environmental quality are too complex to permit straightforward generalizations about causal relationships. However, rapid population growth has increased the number of poor people in developing countries, thus contributing to the degradation of the environment and the renewable resources of…

Elucidating an Adverse Outcome Pathway of Microcephaly for use in Computational Toxicology (SOT Annual Meeting)

EPA Science Inventory

While evidence now supports a causal link between maternal Zika viral infection and microcephaly, genetic errors and chemical stressors may also precipitate this malformation through disruption of neuroprogenitor cell (NPC) proliferation, migration and differentiation in the earl...

The Allelic Landscape of Human Blood Cell Trait Variation and Links to Common Complex Disease.

PubMed

Astle, William J; Elding, Heather; Jiang, Tao; Allen, Dave; Ruklisa, Dace; Mann, Alice L; Mead, Daniel; Bouman, Heleen; Riveros-Mckay, Fernando; Kostadima, Myrto A; Lambourne, John J; Sivapalaratnam, Suthesh; Downes, Kate; Kundu, Kousik; Bomba, Lorenzo; Berentsen, Kim; Bradley, John R; Daugherty, Louise C; Delaneau, Olivier; Freson, Kathleen; Garner, Stephen F; Grassi, Luigi; Guerrero, Jose; Haimel, Matthias; Janssen-Megens, Eva M; Kaan, Anita; Kamat, Mihir; Kim, Bowon; Mandoli, Amit; Marchini, Jonathan; Martens, Joost H A; Meacham, Stuart; Megy, Karyn; O'Connell, Jared; Petersen, Romina; Sharifi, Nilofar; Sheard, Simon M; Staley, James R; Tuna, Salih; van der Ent, Martijn; Walter, Klaudia; Wang, Shuang-Yin; Wheeler, Eleanor; Wilder, Steven P; Iotchkova, Valentina; Moore, Carmel; Sambrook, Jennifer; Stunnenberg, Hendrik G; Di Angelantonio, Emanuele; Kaptoge, Stephen; Kuijpers, Taco W; Carrillo-de-Santa-Pau, Enrique; Juan, David; Rico, Daniel; Valencia, Alfonso; Chen, Lu; Ge, Bing; Vasquez, Louella; Kwan, Tony; Garrido-Martín, Diego; Watt, Stephen; Yang, Ying; Guigo, Roderic; Beck, Stephan; Paul, Dirk S; Pastinen, Tomi; Bujold, David; Bourque, Guillaume; Frontini, Mattia; Danesh, John; Roberts, David J; Ouwehand, Willem H; Butterworth, Adam S; Soranzo, Nicole

2016-11-17

Many common variants have been associated with hematological traits, but identification of causal genes and pathways has proven challenging. We performed a genome-wide association analysis in the UK Biobank and INTERVAL studies, testing 29.5 million genetic variants for association with 36 red cell, white cell, and platelet properties in 173,480 European-ancestry participants. This effort yielded hundreds of low frequency (<5%) and rare (<1%) variants with a strong impact on blood cell phenotypes. Our data highlight general properties of the allelic architecture of complex traits, including the proportion of the heritable component of each blood trait explained by the polygenic signal across different genome regulatory domains. Finally, through Mendelian randomization, we provide evidence of shared genetic pathways linking blood cell indices with complex pathologies, including autoimmune diseases, schizophrenia, and coronary heart disease and evidence suggesting previously reported population associations between blood cell indices and cardiovascular disease may be non-causal. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cancer stem cells and cell size: A causal link?

PubMed

Li, Qiuhui; Rycaj, Kiera; Chen, Xin; Tang, Dean G

2015-12-01

The majority of normal animal cells are 10-20 μm in diameter. Many signaling mechanisms, notably PI3K/Akt/mTOR, Myc, and Hippo pathways, tightly control and coordinate cell growth, cell size, cell division, and cell number during homeostasis. These regulatory mechanisms are frequently deregulated during tumorigenesis resulting in wide variations in cell sizes and increased proliferation in cancer cells. Here, we first review the evidence that primitive stem cells in adult tissues are quiescent and generally smaller than their differentiated progeny, suggesting a correlation between small cell sizes with the stemness. Conversely, increased cell size positively correlates with differentiation phenotypes. We then discuss cancer stem cells (CSCs) and present some evidence that correlates cell sizes with CSC activity. Overall, a causal link between CSCs and cell size is relatively weak and remains to be rigorously assessed. In the future, optimizing methods for isolating cells based on size should help elucidate the connection between cancer cell size and CSC characteristics. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of weighting techniques for acoustic full waveform inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeong, Gangwon; Hwang, Jongha; Min, Dong-Joo

2017-12-01

To reconstruct long-wavelength structures in full waveform inversion (FWI), the wavefield-damping and weighting techniques have been used to synthesize and emphasize low-frequency data components in frequency-domain FWI. However, these methods have some weak points. The application of wavefield-damping method on filtered data fails to synthesize reliable low-frequency data; the optimization formula obtained introducing the weighting technique is not theoretically complete, because it is not directly derived from the objective function. In this study, we address these weak points and present how to overcome them. We demonstrate that the source estimation in FWI using damped wavefields fails when the data used in the FWI process does not satisfy the causality condition. This phenomenon occurs when a non-causal filter is applied to data. We overcome this limitation by designing a causal filter. Also we modify the conventional weighting technique so that its optimization formula is directly derived from the objective function, retaining its original characteristic of emphasizing the low-frequency data components. Numerical results show that the newly designed causal filter enables to recover long-wavelength structures using low-frequency data components synthesized by damping wavefields in frequency-domain FWI, and the proposed weighting technique enhances the inversion results.

Empirical Evaluation of Directional-Dependence Tests

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thoemmes, Felix

2015-01-01

Testing of directional dependence is a method to infer causal direction that recently has attracted some attention. Previous examples by e.g. von Eye and DeShon (2012a) and extensive simulation studies by Pornprasertmanit and Little (2012) have demonstrated that under specific assumptions, directional-dependence tests can recover the true causal…

The Relationship of Magnetotail Flow Bursts and Ground Onset Signatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kepko, Larry; Spanswick, Emma; Angelopoulos, Vassilis; Donovan, Eric

2010-01-01

It has been known for decades that auroral substorm onset occurs on (or at least near) the most equatorward auroral arc, which is thought to map to the near geosynchronous region. The lack of auroral signatures poleward of this arc prior to onset has been a major criticism of flow-burst driven models of substorm onset. The combined THEMIS 5 spacecraft in-situ and ground array measurements provide an unprecedented opportunity to examine the causal relationship between midtail plasma flows, aurora, and ground magnetic signatures. I first present an event from 2008 using multi-spectral all sky imager data from Gillam and in-situ data from THEMIS. The multispectral data indicate an equatorward moving auroral form prior to substorm onset. When this forms reaches the most equatorward arc, the arc brightens and an auroral substorm begins. The THEMIS data show fast Earthward flows prior to onset as well. I discuss further the association of flow bursts and Pi2 pulsations, in the con text of the directly-driven Pi2 model. This model directly links flows and Pi2 pulsations, providing an important constraint on substorm onset theories.

Ecologic regression analysis and the study of the influence of air quality on mortality.

PubMed Central

Selvin, S; Merrill, D; Wong, L; Sacks, S T

1984-01-01

This presentation focuses entirely on the use and evaluation of regression analysis applied to ecologic data as a method to study the effects of ambient air pollution on mortality rates. Using extensive national data on mortality, air quality and socio-economic status regression analyses are used to study the influence of air quality on mortality. The analytic methods and data are selected in such a way that direct comparisons can be made with other ecologic regression studies of mortality and air quality. Analyses are performed by use of two types of geographic areas, age-specific mortality of both males and females and three pollutants (total suspended particulates, sulfur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide). The overall results indicate no persuasive evidence exists of a link between air quality and general mortality levels. Additionally, a lack of consistency between the present results and previous published work is noted. Overall, it is concluded that linear regression analysis applied to nationally collected ecologic data cannot be used to usefully infer a causal relationship between air quality and mortality which is in direct contradiction to other major published studies. PMID:6734568

Acute Illness Is Associated with Suppression of the Growth Hormone Axis in Zimbabwean Infants

PubMed Central

Jones, Andrew D.; Rukobo, Sandra; Chasekwa, Bernard; Mutasa, Kuda; Ntozini, Robert; Mbuya, Mduduzi N. N.; Stoltzfus, Rebecca J.; Humphrey, Jean H.; Prendergast, Andrew J.

2015-01-01

Frequent infections contribute to childhood stunting in developing countries but the causal pathways are uncertain. We tested the hypothesis that intercurrent illnesses suppress the growth hormone axis through reductions in insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1). In a birth cohort of 202 HIV-unexposed Zimbabwean infants, we analyzed data on 7-day illness recall and measured plasma interleukin-6, C-reactive protein, alpha-1-acid glycoprotein, and IGF-1 by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, at age 6 weeks, and then 3, 6, 12, and 18 months. Children with recent acute illness had lower IGF-1 concentrations than healthy children and IGF-1 correlated inversely (P < 0.05) with inflammatory biomarkers at most time points between 3 and 18 months. Using path analysis, we showed that cough and fever had a predominantly indirect effect on suppressing IGF-1, through the acute-phase response, whereas diarrhea had a predominantly direct effect on IGF-1. Acute illness may therefore impact the growth hormone axis through both direct and indirect pathways. PMID:25535308

The gut microbiota and obesity: from correlation to causality.

PubMed

Zhao, Liping

2013-09-01

The gut microbiota has been linked with chronic diseases such as obesity in humans. However, the demonstration of causality between constituents of the microbiota and specific diseases remains an important challenge in the field. In this Opinion article, using Koch's postulates as a conceptual framework, I explore the chain of causation from alterations in the gut microbiota, particularly of the endotoxin-producing members, to the development of obesity in both rodents and humans. I then propose a strategy for identifying the causative agents of obesity in the human microbiota through a combination of microbiome-wide association studies, mechanistic analysis of host responses and the reproduction of diseases in gnotobiotic animals.

Too much sitting and all-cause mortality: is there a causal link?

PubMed

Biddle, Stuart J H; Bennie, Jason A; Bauman, Adrian E; Chau, Josephine Y; Dunstan, David; Owen, Neville; Stamatakis, Emmanuel; van Uffelen, Jannique G Z

2016-07-26

Sedentary behaviours (time spent sitting, with low energy expenditure) are associated with deleterious health outcomes, including all-cause mortality. Whether this association can be considered causal has yet to be established. Using systematic reviews and primary studies from those reviews, we drew upon Bradford Hill's criteria to consider the likelihood that sedentary behaviour in epidemiological studies is likely to be causally related to all-cause (premature) mortality. Searches for systematic reviews on sedentary behaviours and all-cause mortality yielded 386 records which, when judged against eligibility criteria, left eight reviews (addressing 17 primary studies) for analysis. Exposure measures included self-reported total sitting time, TV viewing time, and screen time. Studies included comparisons of a low-sedentary reference group with several higher sedentary categories, or compared the highest versus lowest sedentary behaviour groups. We employed four Bradford Hill criteria: strength of association, consistency, temporality, and dose-response. Evidence supporting causality at the level of each systematic review and primary study was judged using a traffic light system depicting green for causal evidence, amber for mixed or inconclusive evidence, and red for no evidence for causality (either evidence of no effect or no evidence reported). The eight systematic reviews showed evidence for consistency (7 green) and temporality (6 green), and some evidence for strength of association (4 green). There was no evidence for a dose-response relationship (5 red). Five reviews were rated green overall. Twelve (67 %) of the primary studies were rated green, with evidence for strength and temporality. There is reasonable evidence for a likely causal relationship between sedentary behaviour and all-cause mortality based on the epidemiological criteria of strength of association, consistency of effect, and temporality.

False Memories for Affective Information in Schizophrenia.

PubMed

Fairfield, Beth; Altamura, Mario; Padalino, Flavia A; Balzotti, Angela; Di Domenico, Alberto; Mammarella, Nicola

2016-01-01

Studies have shown a direct link between memory for emotionally salient experiences and false memories. In particular, emotionally arousing material of negative and positive valence enhanced reality monitoring compared to neutral material since emotional stimuli can be encoded with more contextual details and thereby facilitate the distinction between presented and imagined stimuli. Individuals with schizophrenia appear to be impaired in both reality monitoring and memory for emotional experiences. However, the relationship between the emotionality of the to-be-remembered material and false memory occurrence has not yet been studied. In this study, 24 patients and 24 healthy adults completed a false memory task with everyday episodes composed of 12 photographs that depicted positive, negative, or neutral outcomes. Results showed how patients with schizophrenia made a higher number of false memories than normal controls ( p  < 0.05) when remembering episodes with positive or negative outcomes. The effect of valence was apparent in the patient group. For example, it did not affect the production causal false memories ( p  > 0.05) resulting from erroneous inferences but did interact with plausible, script consistent errors in patients (i.e., neutral episodes yielded a higher degree of errors than positive and negative episodes). Affective information reduces the probability of generating causal errors in healthy adults but not in patients suggesting that emotional memory impairments may contribute to deficits in reality monitoring in schizophrenia when affective information is involved.

Gluten-induced cognitive impairment ("brain fog") in coeliac disease.

PubMed

Yelland, Gregory W

2017-03-01

Much is known about the serious neurological effects of gluten ingestion in coeliac disease patients, such as sporadic ataxia and peripheral neuropathy, although the causal links to gluten are still under debate. However, such disorders are observed in only a small percentage of coeliac patients. Much less is known about the transient cognitive impairments to memory, attention, executive function, and the speed of cognitive processing reported by the majority of patients with coeliac disease. These mild degradations of cognitive functions, referred to as "brain fog," are yet to be formally recognized as a medical or psychological condition. However, subtle tests of cognitive function are measurable in untreated patients with coeliac disease and improve over the first 12 months' therapy with a gluten-free diet. Such deficits also occur in patients with Crohn's disease, particularly in association with systemic inflammatory activity. Thus, cognitive impairments associated with brain fog are psychologically and neurologically real and improve with adherence to a gluten-free diet. There is not yet sufficient evidence to provide a definitive account of the mechanism by which gluten ingestion causes the impairments to cognitive function associated with brain fog, but current evidence suggests that it is more likely that the causal factor is not directly related to exposure to gluten. © 2017 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

From focal sepsis to periodontal medicine: a century of exploring the role of the oral microbiome in systemic disease.

PubMed

Kumar, Purnima S

2017-01-15

The oral microbiome is established within a few minutes after birth and consists of stable multi-species communities that engage in a dynamic equilibrium with the host immune system. Dental caries, endodontic infections and periodontal diseases are bacterially driven diseases that are caused by dysbiotic microbiomes. Over a century ago, the focal infection theory implicated these infections in the aetiology of several systemic diseases, ranging from arthritis to neurodegenerative diseases. However, a lack of concrete evidence, combined with the urgency with which clinicians embraced this approach without regard for appropriate case selection, led to its demise within 30 years. In the last decade of the 20th century, the concept of periodontal medicine was introduced to explain the correlations that were being observed between periodontitis and cardiovascular disease, rheumatoid arthritis, Alzheimer's disease, pulmonary disease, pre-term delivery of low birth weight infants and metabolic disease. It was proposed that periodontal pathobionts played a causal role in the initiating or exacerbating certain diseases either by direct invasion or by stimulating a florid immune-inflammatory response that extended into the systemic circulation. This review will examine the strength of current evidence in establishing a causal link between oral pathobionts and systemic disease. © 2016 The Authors. The Journal of Physiology © 2016 The Physiological Society.

False Memories for Affective Information in Schizophrenia

PubMed Central

Fairfield, Beth; Altamura, Mario; Padalino, Flavia A.; Balzotti, Angela; Di Domenico, Alberto; Mammarella, Nicola

2016-01-01

Studies have shown a direct link between memory for emotionally salient experiences and false memories. In particular, emotionally arousing material of negative and positive valence enhanced reality monitoring compared to neutral material since emotional stimuli can be encoded with more contextual details and thereby facilitate the distinction between presented and imagined stimuli. Individuals with schizophrenia appear to be impaired in both reality monitoring and memory for emotional experiences. However, the relationship between the emotionality of the to-be-remembered material and false memory occurrence has not yet been studied. In this study, 24 patients and 24 healthy adults completed a false memory task with everyday episodes composed of 12 photographs that depicted positive, negative, or neutral outcomes. Results showed how patients with schizophrenia made a higher number of false memories than normal controls (p < 0.05) when remembering episodes with positive or negative outcomes. The effect of valence was apparent in the patient group. For example, it did not affect the production causal false memories (p > 0.05) resulting from erroneous inferences but did interact with plausible, script consistent errors in patients (i.e., neutral episodes yielded a higher degree of errors than positive and negative episodes). Affective information reduces the probability of generating causal errors in healthy adults but not in patients suggesting that emotional memory impairments may contribute to deficits in reality monitoring in schizophrenia when affective information is involved. PMID:27965600

The Causal Meaning of Genomic Predictors and How It Affects Construction and Comparison of Genome-Enabled Selection Models

PubMed Central

Valente, Bruno D.; Morota, Gota; Peñagaricano, Francisco; Gianola, Daniel; Weigel, Kent; Rosa, Guilherme J. M.

2015-01-01

The term “effect” in additive genetic effect suggests a causal meaning. However, inferences of such quantities for selection purposes are typically viewed and conducted as a prediction task. Predictive ability as tested by cross-validation is currently the most acceptable criterion for comparing models and evaluating new methodologies. Nevertheless, it does not directly indicate if predictors reflect causal effects. Such evaluations would require causal inference methods that are not typical in genomic prediction for selection. This suggests that the usual approach to infer genetic effects contradicts the label of the quantity inferred. Here we investigate if genomic predictors for selection should be treated as standard predictors or if they must reflect a causal effect to be useful, requiring causal inference methods. Conducting the analysis as a prediction or as a causal inference task affects, for example, how covariates of the regression model are chosen, which may heavily affect the magnitude of genomic predictors and therefore selection decisions. We demonstrate that selection requires learning causal genetic effects. However, genomic predictors from some models might capture noncausal signal, providing good predictive ability but poorly representing true genetic effects. Simulated examples are used to show that aiming for predictive ability may lead to poor modeling decisions, while causal inference approaches may guide the construction of regression models that better infer the target genetic effect even when they underperform in cross-validation tests. In conclusion, genomic selection models should be constructed to aim primarily for identifiability of causal genetic effects, not for predictive ability. PMID:25908318

Di(n)butyl phthalate reduces testicular weight, testosterone and associated gene expression in fetal Harlan Sprague Dawley rats.

EPA Science Inventory

Certain phthalate esters (PE) cause reproductive malformations in male rats when exposure occurs during sexual differentiation in utero. Reductions in fetal testosterone levels are causally linked to the induction of these malformations. While reproductive development studies on ...

Counterfactual Thinking and Educational Psychology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hill, Joanna

2017-01-01

Counterfactual thinking refers to imaginative thoughts about what might have been ("if only" or "what if") which are intrinsically linked to self-conscious emotions (regret and guilt) and social judgements (blame). Research in adults suggests that the focus of these thoughts is influenced by order (temporal and causal). Little…

LINKING HISTORICAL ORGANOCHLORINE EXPOSURES IN THE GREAT LAKES CAUSALLY TO MAJOR FISH POPULATION CHANGES

EPA Science Inventory

The Great Lakes of North America are large aquatic ecosystems that have been greatly impacted by human activities in the 20th century. Introduction of non-native species, both advertently and inadvertently; reduction in populations through commercial fishing; habitat alternation...

Trait conscientiousness and the personality meta-trait stability are associated with regional white matter microstructure.

PubMed

Lewis, Gary J; Cox, Simon R; Booth, Tom; Muñoz Maniega, Susana; Royle, Natalie A; Valdés Hernández, Maria; Wardlaw, Joanna M; Bastin, Mark E; Deary, Ian J

2016-08-01

Establishing the neural bases of individual differences in personality has been an enduring topic of interest. However, while a growing literature has sought to characterize grey matter correlates of personality traits, little attention to date has been focused on regional white matter correlates of personality, especially for the personality traits agreeableness, conscientiousness and openness. To rectify this gap in knowledge we used a large sample (n > 550) of older adults who provided data on both personality (International Personality Item Pool) and white matter tract-specific fractional anisotropy (FA) from diffusion tensor MRI. Results indicated that conscientiousness was associated with greater FA in the left uncinate fasciculus (β = 0.17, P < 0.001). We also examined links between FA and the personality meta-trait 'stability', which is defined as the common variance underlying agreeableness, conscientiousness, and neuroticism/emotional stability. We observed an association between left uncinate fasciculus FA and stability (β = 0.27, P < 0.001), which fully accounted for the link between left uncinate fasciculus FA and conscientiousness. In sum, these results provide novel evidence for links between regional white matter microstructure and key traits of human personality, specifically conscientiousness and the meta-trait, stability. Future research is recommended to replicate and address the causal directions of these associations. © The Author (2016). Published by Oxford University Press.

From neurocognition to community participation in serious mental illness: the intermediary role of dysfunctional attitudes and motivation.

PubMed

Thomas, E C; Luther, L; Zullo, L; Beck, A T; Grant, P M

2017-04-01

Evidence for a relationship between neurocognition and functional outcome in important areas of community living is robust in serious mental illness research. Dysfunctional attitudes (defeatist performance beliefs and asocial beliefs) have been identified as intervening variables in this causal chain. This study seeks to expand upon previous research by longitudinally testing the link between neurocognition and community participation (i.e. time in community-based activity) through dysfunctional attitudes and motivation. Adult outpatients with serious mental illness (N = 175) participated, completing follow-up assessments approximately 6 months after initial assessment. Path analysis tested relationships between baseline neurocognition, emotion perception, functional skills, dysfunctional attitudes, motivation, and outcome (i.e. community participation) at baseline and follow-up. Path models demonstrated two pathways to community participation. The first linked neurocognition and community participation through functional skills, defeatist performance beliefs, and motivation. A second pathway linked asocial beliefs and community participation, via a direct path passing through motivation. Model fit was excellent for models predicting overall community participation at baseline and, importantly, at follow-up. The existence of multiple pathways to community participation in a longitudinal model supports the utility of multi-modal interventions for serious mental illness (i.e. treatment packages that build upon individuals' strengths while addressing the array of obstacles to recovery) that feature dysfunctional attitudes and motivation as treatment targets.

Triangulation in aetiological epidemiology.

PubMed

Lawlor, Debbie A; Tilling, Kate; Davey Smith, George

2016-12-01

Triangulation is the practice of obtaining more reliable answers to research questions through integrating results from several different approaches, where each approach has different key sources of potential bias that are unrelated to each other. With respect to causal questions in aetiological epidemiology, if the results of different approaches all point to the same conclusion, this strengthens confidence in the finding. This is particularly the case when the key sources of bias of some of the approaches would predict that findings would point in opposite directions if they were due to such biases. Where there are inconsistencies, understanding the key sources of bias of each approach can help to identify what further research is required to address the causal question. The aim of this paper is to illustrate how triangulation might be used to improve causal inference in aetiological epidemiology. We propose a minimum set of criteria for use in triangulation in aetiological epidemiology, summarize the key sources of bias of several approaches and describe how these might be integrated within a triangulation framework. We emphasize the importance of being explicit about the expected direction of bias within each approach, whenever this is possible, and seeking to identify approaches that would be expected to bias the true causal effect in different directions. We also note the importance, when comparing results, of taking account of differences in the duration and timing of exposures. We provide three examples to illustrate these points. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

Tool to assess causality of direct and indirect adverse events associated with therapeutic interventions.

PubMed

Zorzela, Liliane; Mior, Silvano; Boon, Heather; Gross, Anita; Yager, Jeromy; Carter, Rose; Vohra, Sunita

2018-03-01

To develop and test a tool to assess the causality of direct and indirect adverse events associated with therapeutic interventions. The intervention was one or more drugs and/or natural health products, a device, or practice (professional delivering the intervention). Through the assessment of causality of adverse events, we can learn about factors contributing to the harm and consider what modification may prevent its reoccurrence. Existing scales (WHO-UMC, Naranjo and Horn) were adapted to develop a tool (algorithm and table) to evaluate cases of serious harmful events reported through a national surveillance study. We also incorporated a novel approach that assesses indirect harm (caused by the delay in diagnosis/treatment) and the health provider delivering the intervention (practice). The tool was tested, revised and then implemented to assess all reported cases of serious events resulting from use of complementary therapies. The use of complementary therapies was the trigger to report the event. Each case was evaluated by two assessors, out of a panel of five, representing different health care professionals. The tool was used in assessment of eight serious adverse events. Each event was independently evaluated by two assessors. The algorithm facilitated assessment of a serious direct or indirect harm. Assessors agreed in the final score on seven of eight cases (weighted kappa coefficient of 0.75). A tool to support the assessment of causality of adverse events was developed and tested. We propose a novel method to assess direct and indirect harms related to product(s), device(s), practice or a combination of the previous. Further research will probably help evaluate this approach across different settings and interventions.

Outward foreign direct investments and home country's economic growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciesielska, Dorota; Kołtuniak, Marcin

2017-09-01

The study examines the time stability of the causality direction and cross-correlations between the home country's economic growth and pace of growth of its outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) stocks within the complex system of the Polish national economy. The research has been performed in order to verify, using both the time and frequency domains time series analyses, if economic agents' long term decisions on outward foreign direct investments, leading to cross-border value chains and production fragmentation processes, are of adaptive or predictive character. Consequently, the aim was to check if the home country's economic growth leads the internationalization processes of domestic enterprises, which stays in line with Dunning's Investment Development Path (IDP) paradigm, or if these complex processes, thanks to entrepreneurs' ability to formulate relevant rational expectations, precede the home country's economic growth, which would be supported with the introduction of the policy on reinforcing the internationalization processes of domestic enterprises. The presence of the unidirectional economic growth-led internationalization, consistent with the IDP concept's base assumptions, has been ascertained by the results of the short term Granger causality tests. Nevertheless, the results of the wavelet analyses, supported with the results of the econometric block exogeneity long term causality Wald tests, have revealed that in the long term the OFDI stocks' growth permanently precedes the home country's economic growth, which stays in the unequivocal contrast with the IDP paradigm's premises, as well as with the indicated above short term Granger causality tests' outcomes and indicates that economic agents' choices are not strictly of adaptive but also of predictive character, which influences the current state of knowledge on economic complex systems' characteristics. Such a result is of a great importance in the light of the existence of the significant and still unexploited internationalization potential of Polish enterprises.

Functional significance of men's testosterone reactivity to social stimuli.

PubMed

Zilioli, Samuele; Bird, Brian M

2017-10-01

Rapid testosterone fluctuations in response to social stimuli are observed across a wide range of species, and the highly conserved nature of these fluctuations suggests an adaptive function. This paper reviews the current literature on testosterone reactivity, primarily in human males, and illustrates how life-history theory provides an adequate theoretical framework to interpret findings. The review is structured around supporting evidence suggesting that situations implicated in mating effort either directly (e.g., interactions with a mate) or indirectly (e.g., intrasexual competition) are generally associated with a brief elevation of testosterone, while situations implicated in parenting effort (e.g., nurturant interactions with offspring) are generally associated with a decline in testosterone. Further, we discuss how these fluctuations in testosterone have been linked to future behaviors, and how situational, motivational, and physiological variables moderate the interplay between social stimuli, testosterone reactivity, and behavior. Supporting the notion that testosterone can play a causal role in modulating behavior in response to social stimuli, we also summarize recent single administration studies examining the effects of testosterone on physiology, neurobiology, and behavior. A conceptual model provides links between supported findings, and hypothesized pathways requiring future testing. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reciprocal inhibition between miR-26a and NF-κB regulates obesity-related chronic inflammation in chondrocytes.

PubMed

Xie, Qingyun; Wei, Meng; Kang, Xia; Liu, Da; Quan, Yi; Pan, Xianming; Liu, Xiling; Liao, Dongfa; Liu, Jinbiao; Zhang, Bo

2015-04-25

Obesity is causally linked to osteoarthritis (OA), with the mechanism being not fully elucidated. miRNAs (miRs) are pivotal regulators of various diseases in multiple tissues, including inflammation in the chondrocytes. In the present study, we for the first time identified the expression of miR-26a in mouse chondrocytes. Decreased level of miR-26a was correlated to increased chronic inflammation in the chondrocytes and circulation in obese mouse model. Mechanistically, we demonstrated that miR-26a attenuated saturated free fatty acid-induced activation of NF-κB (p65) and production of proinflammatory cytokines in chondrocytes. Meanwhile, NF-κB (p65) also suppressed miR-26a production by directly binding to a predicted NF-κB binding element in the promoter region of miR-26a. Finally, we observed a negative correlation between NF-κB and miR-26a in human patients with osteoarthritis. Thus, we identified a reciprocal inhibition between miR-26a and NF-κB downstream of non-esterified fatty acid (NEFA) signalling in obesity-related chondrocytes. Our findings provide a potential mechanism linking obesity to cartilage inflammation. © 2015 Authors.

Investigating causality in the association between 25(OH)D and schizophrenia.

PubMed

Taylor, Amy E; Burgess, Stephen; Ware, Jennifer J; Gage, Suzanne H; Richards, J Brent; Davey Smith, George; Munafò, Marcus R

2016-05-24

Vitamin D deficiency is associated with increased risk of schizophrenia. However, it is not known whether this association is causal or what the direction of causality is. We performed two sample bidirectional Mendelian randomization analysis using single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) robustly associated with serum 25(OH)D to investigate the causal effect of 25(OH)D on risk of schizophrenia, and SNPs robustly associated with schizophrenia to investigate the causal effect of schizophrenia on 25(OH)D. We used summary data from genome-wide association studies and meta-analyses of schizophrenia and 25(OH)D to obtain betas and standard errors for the SNP-exposure and SNP-outcome associations. These were combined using inverse variance weighted fixed effects meta-analyses. In 34,241 schizophrenia cases and 45,604 controls, there was no clear evidence for a causal effect of 25(OH)D on schizophrenia risk. The odds ratio for schizophrenia per 10% increase in 25(OH)D conferred by the four 25(OH)D increasing SNPs was 0.992 (95% CI: 0.969 to 1.015). In up to 16,125 individuals with measured serum 25(OH)D, there was no clear evidence that genetic risk for schizophrenia causally lowers serum 25(OH)D. These findings suggest that associations between schizophrenia and serum 25(OH)D may not be causal. Therefore, vitamin D supplementation may not prevent schizophrenia.

Right external globus pallidus changes are associated with altered causal awareness in youth with depression

PubMed Central

Griffiths, K R; Lagopoulos, J; Hermens, D F; Hickie, I B; Balleine, B W

2015-01-01

Cognitive impairment is a functionally disabling feature of depression contributing to maladaptive decision-making, a loss of behavioral control and an increased disease burden. The ability to calculate the causal efficacy of ones actions in achieving specific goals is critical to normal decision-making and, in this study, we combined voxel-based morphometry (VBM), shape analysis and diffusion tensor tractography to investigate the relationship between cortical–basal ganglia structural integrity and such causal awareness in 43 young subjects with depression and 21 demographically similar healthy controls. Volumetric analysis determined a relationship between right pallidal size and sensitivity to the causal status of specific actions. More specifically, shape analysis identified dorsolateral surface vertices where an inward location was correlated with reduced levels of causal awareness. Probabilistic tractography revealed that affected parts of the pallidum were primarily connected with the striatum, dorsal thalamus and hippocampus. VBM did not reveal any whole-brain gray matter regions that correlated with causal awareness. We conclude that volumetric reduction within the indirect pathway involving the right dorsolateral pallidum is associated with reduced awareness of the causal efficacy of goal-directed actions in young depressed individuals. This causal awareness task allows for the identification of a functionally and biologically relevant subgroup to which more targeted cognitive interventions could be applied, potentially enhancing the long-term outcomes for these individuals. PMID:26440541

Functional ability loss in sensory impaired and sensory unimpaired very old adults: analyzing causal relations with positive affect across four years.

PubMed

Wahl, Hans-Werner; Drapaniotis, Philipp M; Heyl, Vera

2014-11-01

This paper focuses on the relationship between functional ability (FA) and positive affect (PA), a major component of well-being, in sensory impaired very old adults (SI) compared with sensory unimpaired individuals (UI). Previous research mostly suggests a robust causal impact of FA on PA. However, some research, drawing from Fredrickson's broaden-and-build theory, also points to the possibility of an inverse causality between FA and PA. We examine in this paper both of these causal directions in SI as well as UI individuals across a 4year observation period. Additionally, we checked for the role of negative affect (NA). The T1-T2 sample comprised 81 out of 237 SI individuals (visually or hearing impaired) assessed at T1, with a mean age at T1 of 81.8years, and 87 UI individuals out of 150 assessed at T1, with a mean age at T1 of 81.5years. Established scales were used to assess FA, PA, and NA. Using cross-lagged panel analysis to examine the direction of causality, our findings indicate that FA has significant impact on PA in both the SI and the UI group, whereas the alternative causal pathway was not confirmed. Both cross-lagged relationships between FA and NA were non-significant. No group differences in path strengths between SI and UI were present. Our study provides evidence that FA is a key competence for successful emotional aging in vulnerable groups of very old adults such as SI as well as in UI adults in advanced old age. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Tolerance to bovine clinical mastitis: Total, direct, and indirect milk losses.

PubMed

Detilleux, J

2018-04-01

The objectives of this paper were to estimate direct and indirect milk losses associated with mastitis. Indirect losses, linked to indirect tolerance, are mediated by the increase in milk somatic cell count (SCC) in response to bacterial infection. Direct losses, linked to weak direct tolerance, are not mediated by the increase in SCC. So far, studies have evaluated milk loss associated with clinical mastitis without considering both components, which may lead to biased estimates of their sum; that is, the total loss in milk. A total of 43,903 test-day records on milk and SCC from 3,716 cows and 5,858 lactations were analyzed with mediation mixed models and health trajectories to estimate the amount of direct, indirect, and total milk losses after adjustment for known and potentially unmeasured (sensitivity analyses) confounding factors. Estimates were formalized under the counterfactual causal theory of causation. In this study, milk losses were mostly mediated by an increase in SCC. They were highest in the first month of lactation, when SCC were highest. Milk losses were estimated at 0.5, 0.8, and 1.1 kg/d in first, second, and third and greater parity, respectively. Two phases described how changes in milk were associated with changes in SCC: on average, one occurred before and one after the day preceding the clinical diagnosis. In both phases, changes in milk were estimated at 1 mg/d per 10 3 cells/mL. After adjusting for known confounders, cow effect accounted for 20.7 and 64.2% of the variation in milk in the first and second phases, respectively. This suggests that deviations from the resilient path were highest during the second phase of inflammation and that selection for cows more tolerant to mastitis is feasible. As discussed herein, epigenetic regulation of macrophage polarization may contribute to the variation in milk observed in the second phase. Copyright © 2018 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Illness causal beliefs in Turkish immigrants

PubMed Central

Minas, Harry; Klimidis, Steven; Tuncer, Can

2007-01-01

Background People hold a wide variety of beliefs concerning the causes of illness. Such beliefs vary across cultures and, among immigrants, may be influenced by many factors, including level of acculturation, gender, level of education, and experience of illness and treatment. This study examines illness causal beliefs in Turkish-immigrants in Australia. Methods Causal beliefs about somatic and mental illness were examined in a sample of 444 members of the Turkish population of Melbourne. The socio-demographic characteristics of the sample were broadly similar to those of the Melbourne Turkish community. Five issues were examined: the structure of causal beliefs; the relative frequency of natural, supernatural and metaphysical beliefs; ascription of somatic, mental, or both somatic and mental conditions to the various causes; the correlations of belief types with socio-demographic, modernizing and acculturation variables; and the relationship between causal beliefs and current illness. Results Principal components analysis revealed two broad factors, accounting for 58 percent of the variation in scores on illness belief scales, distinctly interpretable as natural and supernatural beliefs. Second, beliefs in natural causes were more frequent than beliefs in supernatural causes. Third, some causal beliefs were commonly linked to both somatic and mental conditions while others were regarded as more specific to either somatic or mental disorders. Last, there was a range of correlations between endorsement of belief types and factors defining heterogeneity within the community, including with demographic factors, indicators of modernizing and acculturative processes, and the current presence of illness. Conclusion Results supported the classification of causal beliefs proposed by Murdock, Wilson & Frederick, with a division into natural and supernatural causes. While belief in natural causes is more common, belief in supernatural causes persists despite modernizing and acculturative influences. Different types of causal beliefs are held in relation to somatic or mental illness, and a variety of apparently logically incompatible beliefs may be concurrently held. Illness causal beliefs are dynamic and are related to demographic, modernizing, and acculturative factors, and to the current presence of illness. Any assumption of uniformity of illness causal beliefs within a community, even one that is relatively culturally homogeneous, is likely to be misleading. A better understanding of the diversity, and determinants, of illness causal beliefs can be of value in improving our understanding of illness experience, the clinical process, and in developing more effective health services and population health strategies. PMID:17645806

Illness causal beliefs in Turkish immigrants.

PubMed

Minas, Harry; Klimidis, Steven; Tuncer, Can

2007-07-24

People hold a wide variety of beliefs concerning the causes of illness. Such beliefs vary across cultures and, among immigrants, may be influenced by many factors, including level of acculturation, gender, level of education, and experience of illness and treatment. This study examines illness causal beliefs in Turkish-immigrants in Australia. Causal beliefs about somatic and mental illness were examined in a sample of 444 members of the Turkish population of Melbourne. The socio-demographic characteristics of the sample were broadly similar to those of the Melbourne Turkish community. Five issues were examined: the structure of causal beliefs; the relative frequency of natural, supernatural and metaphysical beliefs; ascription of somatic, mental, or both somatic and mental conditions to the various causes; the correlations of belief types with socio-demographic, modernizing and acculturation variables; and the relationship between causal beliefs and current illness. Principal components analysis revealed two broad factors, accounting for 58 percent of the variation in scores on illness belief scales, distinctly interpretable as natural and supernatural beliefs. Second, beliefs in natural causes were more frequent than beliefs in supernatural causes. Third, some causal beliefs were commonly linked to both somatic and mental conditions while others were regarded as more specific to either somatic or mental disorders. Last, there was a range of correlations between endorsement of belief types and factors defining heterogeneity within the community, including with demographic factors, indicators of modernizing and acculturative processes, and the current presence of illness. Results supported the classification of causal beliefs proposed by Murdock, Wilson & Frederick, with a division into natural and supernatural causes. While belief in natural causes is more common, belief in supernatural causes persists despite modernizing and acculturative influences. Different types of causal beliefs are held in relation to somatic or mental illness, and a variety of apparently logically incompatible beliefs may be concurrently held. Illness causal beliefs are dynamic and are related to demographic, modernizing, and acculturative factors, and to the current presence of illness. Any assumption of uniformity of illness causal beliefs within a community, even one that is relatively culturally homogeneous, is likely to be misleading. A better understanding of the diversity, and determinants, of illness causal beliefs can be of value in improving our understanding of illness experience, the clinical process, and in developing more effective health services and population health strategies.

Relationships between infant mortality, birth spacing and fertility in Matlab, Bangladesh.

PubMed

van Soest, Arthur; Saha, Unnati Rani

2018-01-01

Although research on the fertility response to childhood mortality is widespread in demographic literature, very few studies focused on the two-way causal relationships between infant mortality and fertility. Understanding the nature of such relationships is important in order to design effective policies to reduce child mortality and improve family planning. In this study, we use dynamic panel data techniques to analyse the causal effects of infant mortality on birth intervals and fertility, as well as the causal effects of birth intervals on mortality in rural Bangladesh, accounting for unobserved heterogeneity and reverse causality. Simulations based upon the estimated model show whether (and to what extent) mortality and fertility can be reduced by breaking the causal links between short birth intervals and infant mortality. We find a replacement effect of infant mortality on total fertility of about 0.54 children for each infant death in the comparison area with standard health services. Eliminating the replacement effect would lengthen birth intervals and reduce the total number of births, resulting in a fall in mortality by 2.45 children per 1000 live births. These effects are much smaller in the treatment area with extensive health services and information on family planning, where infant mortality is smaller, birth intervals are longer, and total fertility is lower. In both areas, we find evidence of boy preference in family planning.

Relationships between infant mortality, birth spacing and fertility in Matlab, Bangladesh

PubMed Central

van Soest, Arthur

2018-01-01

Although research on the fertility response to childhood mortality is widespread in demographic literature, very few studies focused on the two-way causal relationships between infant mortality and fertility. Understanding the nature of such relationships is important in order to design effective policies to reduce child mortality and improve family planning. In this study, we use dynamic panel data techniques to analyse the causal effects of infant mortality on birth intervals and fertility, as well as the causal effects of birth intervals on mortality in rural Bangladesh, accounting for unobserved heterogeneity and reverse causality. Simulations based upon the estimated model show whether (and to what extent) mortality and fertility can be reduced by breaking the causal links between short birth intervals and infant mortality. We find a replacement effect of infant mortality on total fertility of about 0.54 children for each infant death in the comparison area with standard health services. Eliminating the replacement effect would lengthen birth intervals and reduce the total number of births, resulting in a fall in mortality by 2.45 children per 1000 live births. These effects are much smaller in the treatment area with extensive health services and information on family planning, where infant mortality is smaller, birth intervals are longer, and total fertility is lower. In both areas, we find evidence of boy preference in family planning. PMID:29702692

The Mental Health Outcomes of Drought: A Systematic Review and Causal Process Diagram

PubMed Central

Vins, Holly; Bell, Jesse; Saha, Shubhayu; Hess, Jeremy J.

2015-01-01

Little is understood about the long term, indirect health consequences of drought (a period of abnormally dry weather). In particular, the implications of drought for mental health via pathways such as loss of livelihood, diminished social support, and rupture of place bonds have not been extensively studied, leaving a knowledge gap for practitioners and researchers alike. A systematic review of literature was performed to examine the mental health effects of drought. The systematic review results were synthesized to create a causal process diagram that illustrates the pathways linking drought effects to mental health outcomes. Eighty-two articles using a variety of methods in different contexts were gathered from the systematic review. The pathways in the causal process diagram with greatest support in the literature are those focusing on the economic and migratory effects of drought. The diagram highlights the complexity of the relationships between drought and mental health, including the multiple ways that factors can interact and lead to various outcomes. The systematic review and resulting causal process diagram can be used in both practice and theory, including prevention planning, public health programming, vulnerability and risk assessment, and research question guidance. The use of a causal process diagram provides a much needed avenue for integrating the findings of diverse research to further the understanding of the mental health implications of drought. PMID:26506367

Jealousy increased by induced relative left frontal cortical activity.

PubMed

Kelley, Nicholas J; Eastwick, Paul W; Harmon-Jones, Eddie; Schmeichel, Brandon J

2015-10-01

Asymmetric frontal cortical activity may be one key to the process linking social exclusion to jealous feelings. The current research examined the causal role of asymmetric frontal brain activity in modulating jealousy in response to social exclusion. Transcranial direct-current stimulation (tDCS) over the frontal cortex to manipulate asymmetric frontal cortical activity was combined with a modified version of the Cyberball paradigm designed to induce jealousy. After receiving 15 min of tDCS, participants were excluded by a desired partner and reported how jealous they felt. Among individuals who were excluded, tDCS to increase relative left frontal cortical activity caused greater levels of self-reported jealousy compared to tDCS to increase relative right frontal cortical activity or sham stimulation. Limitations concerning the specificity of this effect and implications for the role of the asymmetric prefrontal cortical activity in motivated behaviors are discussed. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Relationship of suicide rates to economic variables in Europe: 2000-2011.

PubMed

Fountoulakis, Konstantinos N; Kawohl, Wolfram; Theodorakis, Pavlos N; Kerkhof, Ad J F M; Navickas, Alvydas; Höschl, Cyril; Lecic-Tosevski, Dusica; Sorel, Eliot; Rancans, Elmars; Palova, Eva; Juckel, Georg; Isacsson, Goran; Jagodic, Helena Korosec; Botezat-Antonescu, Ileana; Warnke, Ingeborg; Rybakowski, Janusz; Azorin, Jean Michel; Cookson, John; Waddington, John; Pregelj, Peter; Demyttenaere, Koen; Hranov, Luchezar G; Stevovic, Lidija Injac; Pezawas, Lucas; Adida, Marc; Figuera, Maria Luisa; Pompili, Maurizio; Jakovljević, Miro; Vichi, Monica; Perugi, Giulio; Andreassen, Ole; Andrasen, Ole; Vukovic, Olivera; Mavrogiorgou, Paraskevi; Varnik, Peeter; Bech, Per; Dome, Peter; Winkler, Petr; Salokangas, Raimo K R; From, Tiina; Danileviciute, Vita; Gonda, Xenia; Rihmer, Zoltan; Benhalima, Jonas Forsman; Grady, Anne; Leadholm, Anne Katrine Kloster; Soendergaard, Susan; Nordt, Carlos; Lopez-Ibor, Juan

2014-12-01

It is unclear whether there is a direct link between economic crises and changes in suicide rates. The Lopez-Ibor Foundation launched an initiative to study the possible impact of the economic crisis on European suicide rates. Data was gathered and analysed from 29 European countries and included the number of deaths by suicide in men and women, the unemployment rate, the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, the annual economic growth rate and inflation. There was a strong correlation between suicide rates and all economic indices except GPD per capita in men but only a correlation with unemployment in women. However, the increase in suicide rates occurred several months before the economic crisis emerged. Overall, this study confirms a general relationship between the economic environment and suicide rates; however, it does not support there being a clear causal relationship between the current economic crisis and an increase in the suicide rate. Royal College of Psychiatrists.

Dorsal hippocampus contributes to model-based planning.

PubMed

Miller, Kevin J; Botvinick, Matthew M; Brody, Carlos D

2017-09-01

Planning can be defined as action selection that leverages an internal model of the outcomes likely to follow each possible action. Its neural mechanisms remain poorly understood. Here we adapt recent advances from human research for rats, presenting for the first time an animal task that produces many trials of planned behavior per session, making multitrial rodent experimental tools available to study planning. We use part of this toolkit to address a perennially controversial issue in planning: the role of the dorsal hippocampus. Although prospective hippocampal representations have been proposed to support planning, intact planning in animals with damaged hippocampi has been repeatedly observed. Combining formal algorithmic behavioral analysis with muscimol inactivation, we provide causal evidence directly linking dorsal hippocampus with planning behavior. Our results and methods open the door to new and more detailed investigations of the neural mechanisms of planning in the hippocampus and throughout the brain.

Learning Linear Spatial-Numeric Associations Improves Accuracy of Memory for Numbers

PubMed Central

Thompson, Clarissa A.; Opfer, John E.

2016-01-01

Memory for numbers improves with age and experience. One potential source of improvement is a logarithmic-to-linear shift in children’s representations of magnitude. To test this, Kindergartners and second graders estimated the location of numbers on number lines and recalled numbers presented in vignettes (Study 1). Accuracy at number-line estimation predicted memory accuracy on a numerical recall task after controlling for the effect of age and ability to approximately order magnitudes (mapper status). To test more directly whether linear numeric magnitude representations caused improvements in memory, half of children were given feedback on their number-line estimates (Study 2). As expected, learning linear representations was again linked to memory for numerical information even after controlling for age and mapper status. These results suggest that linear representations of numerical magnitude may be a causal factor in development of numeric recall accuracy. PMID:26834688

An efficient method for visualization and growth of fluorescent Xanthomonas oryzae pv. oryzae in planta

PubMed Central

Han, Sang-Wook; Park, Chang-Jin; Lee, Sang-Won; Ronald, Pamela C

2008-01-01

Background Xanthomonas oryzae pv. oryzae, the causal agent of bacterial blight disease, is a serious pathogen of rice. Here we describe a fluorescent marker system to study virulence and pathogenicity of X. oryzae pv. oryzae. Results A fluorescent X. oryzae pv. oryzae Philippine race 6 strain expressing green fluorescent protein (GFP) (PXO99GFP) was generated using the gfp gene under the control of the neomycin promoter in the vector, pPneo-gfp. The PXO99GFPstrain displayed identical virulence and avirulence properties as the wild type control strain, PXO99. Using fluorescent microscopy, bacterial multiplication and colonization were directly observed in rice xylem vessels. Accurate and rapid determination of bacterial growth was assessed using fluoremetry and an Enzyme-Linked ImmunoSorbant Assay (ELISA). Conclusion Our results indicate that the fluorescent marker system is useful for assessing bacterial infection and monitoring bacterial multiplication in planta. PMID:18826644

Types, Mechanisms, and Clinical Cardiovascular Consequences

PubMed Central

Javaheri, Shahrokh; Barbe, Ferran; Campos-Rodriguez, Francisco; Dempsey, Jerome A.; Khayat, Rami; Javaheri, Sogol; Malhotra, Atul; Martinez-Garcia, Miguel A.; Mehra, Reena; Pack, Allan I.; Polotsky, Vsevolod Y.; Redline, Susan; Somers, Virend K.

2017-01-01

Sleep apnea is highly prevalent in patients with cardiovascular disease. These disordered breathing events are associated with a profile of perturbations that include intermittent hypoxia, oxidative stress, sympathetic activation, and endothelial dysfunction, all of which are critical mediators of cardiovascular disease. Evidence supports a causal association of sleep apnea with the incidence and morbidity of hypertension, coronary heart disease, arrhythmia, heart failure, and stroke. Several discoveries in the pathogenesis, along with developments in the treatment of sleep apnea, have accumulated in recent years. In this review, we discuss the mechanisms of sleep apnea, the evidence that addresses the links between sleep apnea and cardiovascular disease, and research that has addressed the effect of sleep apnea treatment on cardiovascular disease and clinical endpoints. Finally, we review the recent development in sleep apnea treatment options, with special consideration of treating patients with heart disease. Future directions for selective areas are suggested. PMID:28209226

Learning Linear Spatial-Numeric Associations Improves Accuracy of Memory for Numbers.

PubMed

Thompson, Clarissa A; Opfer, John E

2016-01-01

Memory for numbers improves with age and experience. One potential source of improvement is a logarithmic-to-linear shift in children's representations of magnitude. To test this, Kindergartners and second graders estimated the location of numbers on number lines and recalled numbers presented in vignettes (Study 1). Accuracy at number-line estimation predicted memory accuracy on a numerical recall task after controlling for the effect of age and ability to approximately order magnitudes (mapper status). To test more directly whether linear numeric magnitude representations caused improvements in memory, half of children were given feedback on their number-line estimates (Study 2). As expected, learning linear representations was again linked to memory for numerical information even after controlling for age and mapper status. These results suggest that linear representations of numerical magnitude may be a causal factor in development of numeric recall accuracy.

Attenuation of nursing-related ovarian suppression and high fertility in well-nourished, intensively breast-feeding Amele women of lowland Papua New Guinea.

PubMed

Worthman, C M; Jenkins, C L; Stallings, J F; Lai, D

1993-10-01

Intense, sustained nursing lengthens inter-birth intervals and is causally linked with low natural fertility. However, in traditional settings, the effects of such nursing on fertility are difficult to disentangle from those of nutrition. Results from a prospective, direct observational study of reproductive function in well-nourished Amele women who nurse intensively and persistently but who also have high fertility are here presented. Endocrine measures show that ovarian activity resumes by median 11.0 months postpartum. Median duration of postpartum amenorrhoea is 11.3 months, time to next conception is 19.0 months, and the inter-birth interval is 28.0 months. Average life time fertility is 6.8. High fertility in Amele women is due both to refractoriness of reproductive function to suckling stimuli, and to maintenance of equivalent age-specific fertility rates across the reproductive life span.

Viral contacts confound studies of childhood leukemia and high-voltage transmission lines.

PubMed

Sahl, J D

1994-05-01

Studies of childhood leukemia have reported a link with residential proximity to electric utility facilities. This paper elaborates on the hypothesis that residential proximity to electric utility transmission-systems is a surrogate for viral contacts, a potential confounder in these studies. While the causal implications of increased viral contacts is not established, the assumption made here is that a significant component of childhood leukemia has an infectious etiology. Increased viral contacts can result from residential mobility, being first born, or use of community childcare facilities. Re-analysis of existing studies should look specifically for the interaction between childhood leukemia, markers for viral contacts (e.g., residential mobility, birth order, use of outside childcare facilities), and residential proximity to high-voltage transmission lines. New study designs should include parameters to test directly for a virus-related infectious model for childhood leukemia.

Neural theory for the perception of causal actions.

PubMed

Fleischer, Falk; Christensen, Andrea; Caggiano, Vittorio; Thier, Peter; Giese, Martin A

2012-07-01

The efficient prediction of the behavior of others requires the recognition of their actions and an understanding of their action goals. In humans, this process is fast and extremely robust, as demonstrated by classical experiments showing that human observers reliably judge causal relationships and attribute interactive social behavior to strongly simplified stimuli consisting of simple moving geometrical shapes. While psychophysical experiments have identified critical visual features that determine the perception of causality and agency from such stimuli, the underlying detailed neural mechanisms remain largely unclear, and it is an open question why humans developed this advanced visual capability at all. We created pairs of naturalistic and abstract stimuli of hand actions that were exactly matched in terms of their motion parameters. We show that varying critical stimulus parameters for both stimulus types leads to very similar modulations of the perception of causality. However, the additional form information about the hand shape and its relationship with the object supports more fine-grained distinctions for the naturalistic stimuli. Moreover, we show that a physiologically plausible model for the recognition of goal-directed hand actions reproduces the observed dependencies of causality perception on critical stimulus parameters. These results support the hypothesis that selectivity for abstract action stimuli might emerge from the same neural mechanisms that underlie the visual processing of natural goal-directed action stimuli. Furthermore, the model proposes specific detailed neural circuits underlying this visual function, which can be evaluated in future experiments.

AOP: An R Package For Sufficient Causal Analysis in Pathway ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Summary: How can I quickly find the key events in a pathway that I need to monitor to predict that a/an beneficial/adverse event/outcome will occur? This is a key question when using signaling pathways for drug/chemical screening in pharma-cology, toxicology and risk assessment. By identifying these sufficient causal key events, we have fewer events to monitor for a pathway, thereby decreasing assay costs and time, while maximizing the value of the information. I have developed the “aop” package which uses backdoor analysis of causal net-works to identify these minimal sets of key events that are suf-ficient for making causal predictions. Availability and Implementation: The source and binary are available online through the Bioconductor project (http://www.bioconductor.org/) as an R package titled “aop”. The R/Bioconductor package runs within the R statistical envi-ronment. The package has functions that can take pathways (as directed graphs) formatted as a Cytoscape JSON file as input, or pathways can be represented as directed graphs us-ing the R/Bioconductor “graph” package. The “aop” package has functions that can perform backdoor analysis to identify the minimal set of key events for making causal predictions.Contact: burgoon.lyle@epa.gov This paper describes an R/Bioconductor package that was developed to facilitate the identification of key events within an AOP that are the minimal set of sufficient key events that need to be tested/monit

CaSPIAN: A Causal Compressive Sensing Algorithm for Discovering Directed Interactions in Gene Networks

PubMed Central

Emad, Amin; Milenkovic, Olgica

2014-01-01

We introduce a novel algorithm for inference of causal gene interactions, termed CaSPIAN (Causal Subspace Pursuit for Inference and Analysis of Networks), which is based on coupling compressive sensing and Granger causality techniques. The core of the approach is to discover sparse linear dependencies between shifted time series of gene expressions using a sequential list-version of the subspace pursuit reconstruction algorithm and to estimate the direction of gene interactions via Granger-type elimination. The method is conceptually simple and computationally efficient, and it allows for dealing with noisy measurements. Its performance as a stand-alone platform without biological side-information was tested on simulated networks, on the synthetic IRMA network in Saccharomyces cerevisiae, and on data pertaining to the human HeLa cell network and the SOS network in E. coli. The results produced by CaSPIAN are compared to the results of several related algorithms, demonstrating significant improvements in inference accuracy of documented interactions. These findings highlight the importance of Granger causality techniques for reducing the number of false-positives, as well as the influence of noise and sampling period on the accuracy of the estimates. In addition, the performance of the method was tested in conjunction with biological side information of the form of sparse “scaffold networks”, to which new edges were added using available RNA-seq or microarray data. These biological priors aid in increasing the sensitivity and precision of the algorithm in the small sample regime. PMID:24622336

Causal inference in survival analysis using pseudo-observations.

PubMed

Andersen, Per K; Syriopoulou, Elisavet; Parner, Erik T

2017-07-30

Causal inference for non-censored response variables, such as binary or quantitative outcomes, is often based on either (1) direct standardization ('G-formula') or (2) inverse probability of treatment assignment weights ('propensity score'). To do causal inference in survival analysis, one needs to address right-censoring, and often, special techniques are required for that purpose. We will show how censoring can be dealt with 'once and for all' by means of so-called pseudo-observations when doing causal inference in survival analysis. The pseudo-observations can be used as a replacement of the outcomes without censoring when applying 'standard' causal inference methods, such as (1) or (2) earlier. We study this idea for estimating the average causal effect of a binary treatment on the survival probability, the restricted mean lifetime, and the cumulative incidence in a competing risks situation. The methods will be illustrated in a small simulation study and via a study of patients with acute myeloid leukemia who received either myeloablative or non-myeloablative conditioning before allogeneic hematopoetic cell transplantation. We will estimate the average causal effect of the conditioning regime on outcomes such as the 3-year overall survival probability and the 3-year risk of chronic graft-versus-host disease. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Atypicalities in Perceptual Adaptation in Autism Do Not Extend to Perceptual Causality

PubMed Central

Karaminis, Themelis; Turi, Marco; Neil, Louise; Badcock, Nicholas A.; Burr, David; Pellicano, Elizabeth

2015-01-01

A recent study showed that adaptation to causal events (collisions) in adults caused subsequent events to be less likely perceived as causal. In this study, we examined if a similar negative adaptation effect for perceptual causality occurs in children, both typically developing and with autism. Previous studies have reported diminished adaptation for face identity, facial configuration and gaze direction in children with autism. To test whether diminished adaptive coding extends beyond high-level social stimuli (such as faces) and could be a general property of autistic perception, we developed a child-friendly paradigm for adaptation of perceptual causality. We compared the performance of 22 children with autism with 22 typically developing children, individually matched on age and ability (IQ scores). We found significant and equally robust adaptation aftereffects for perceptual causality in both groups. There were also no differences between the two groups in their attention, as revealed by reaction times and accuracy in a change-detection task. These findings suggest that adaptation to perceptual causality in autism is largely similar to typical development and, further, that diminished adaptive coding might not be a general characteristic of autism at low levels of the perceptual hierarchy, constraining existing theories of adaptation in autism. PMID:25774507

Model Selection Approach Suggests Causal Association between 25-Hydroxyvitamin D and Colorectal Cancer

PubMed Central

Theodoratou, Evropi; Farrington, Susan M.; Tenesa, Albert; Dunlop, Malcolm G.; McKeigue, Paul; Campbell, Harry

2013-01-01

Introduction Vitamin D deficiency has been associated with increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC), but causal relationship has not yet been confirmed. We investigate the direction of causation between vitamin D and CRC by extending the conventional approaches to allow pleiotropic relationships and by explicitly modelling unmeasured confounders. Methods Plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25-OHD), genetic variants associated with 25-OHD and CRC, and other relevant information was available for 2645 individuals (1057 CRC cases and 1588 controls) and included in the model. We investigate whether 25-OHD is likely to be causally associated with CRC, or vice versa, by selecting the best modelling hypothesis according to Bayesian predictive scores. We examine consistency for a range of prior assumptions. Results Model comparison showed preference for the causal association between low 25-OHD and CRC over the reverse causal hypothesis. This was confirmed for posterior mean deviances obtained for both models (11.5 natural log units in favour of the causal model), and also for deviance information criteria (DIC) computed for a range of prior distributions. Overall, models ignoring hidden confounding or pleiotropy had significantly poorer DIC scores. Conclusion Results suggest causal association between 25-OHD and colorectal cancer, and support the need for randomised clinical trials for further confirmations. PMID:23717431

Problem formulation, metrics, open government, and on-line collaboration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ziegler, C. R.; Schofield, K.; Young, S.; Shaw, D.

2010-12-01

Problem formulation leading to effective environmental management, including synthesis and application of science by government agencies, may benefit from collaborative on-line environments. This is illustrated by two interconnected projects: 1) literature-based evidence tools that support causal assessment and problem formulation, and 2) development of output, outcome, and sustainability metrics for tracking environmental conditions. Specifically, peer-production mechanisms allow for global contribution to science-based causal evidence databases, and subsequent crowd-sourced development of causal networks supported by that evidence. In turn, science-based causal networks may inform problem formulation and selection of metrics or indicators to track environmental condition (or problem status). Selecting and developing metrics in a collaborative on-line environment may improve stakeholder buy-in, the explicit relevance of metrics to planning, and the ability to approach problem apportionment or accountability, and to define success or sustainability. Challenges include contribution governance, data-sharing incentives, linking on-line interfaces to data service providers, and the intersection of environmental science and social science. Degree of framework access and confidentiality may vary by group and/or individual, but may ultimately be geared at demonstrating connections between science and decision making and supporting a culture of open government, by fostering transparency, public engagement, and collaboration.

THE CAUSAL ANALYSIS / DIAGNOSIS DECISION ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

CADDIS is an on-line decision support system that helps investigators in the regions, states and tribes find, access, organize, use and share information to produce causal evaluations in aquatic systems. It is based on the US EPA's Stressor Identification process which is a formal method for identifying causes of impairments in aquatic systems. CADDIS 2007 increases access to relevant information useful for causal analysis and provides methods and tools that practitioners can use to analyze their own data. The new Candidate Cause section provides overviews of commonly encountered causes of impairments to aquatic systems: metals, sediments, nutrients, flow alteration, temperature, ionic strength, and low dissolved oxygen. CADDIS includes new Conceptual Models that illustrate the relationships from sources to stressors to biological effects. An Interactive Conceptual Model for phosphorus links the diagram with supporting literature citations. The new Analyzing Data section helps practitioners analyze their data sets and interpret and use those results as evidence within the USEPA causal assessment process. Downloadable tools include a graphical user interface statistical package (CADStat), and programs for use with the freeware R statistical package, and a Microsoft Excel template. These tools can be used to quantify associations between causes and biological impairments using innovative methods such as species-sensitivity distributions, biological inferenc

Designing Better Scaffolding in Teaching Complex Systems with Graphical Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Na

Complex systems are an important topic in science education today, but they are usually difficult for secondary-level students to learn. Although graphic simulations have many advantages in teaching complex systems, scaffolding is a critical factor for effective learning. This dissertation study was conducted around two complementary research questions on scaffolding: (1) How can we chunk and sequence learning activities in teaching complex systems? (2) How can we help students make connections among system levels across learning activities (level bridging)? With a sample of 123 seventh-graders, this study employed a 3x2 experimental design that factored sequencing methods (independent variable 1; three levels) with level-bridging scaffolding (independent variable 2; two levels) and compared the effectiveness of each combination. The study measured two dependent variables: (1) knowledge integration (i.e., integrating and connecting content-specific normative concepts and providing coherent scientific explanations); (2) understanding of the deep causal structure (i.e., being able to grasp and transfer the causal knowledge of a complex system). The study used a computer-based simulation environment as the research platform to teach the ideal gas law as a system. The ideal gas law is an emergent chemical system that has three levels: (1) experiential macro level (EM) (e.g., an aerosol can explodes when it is thrown into the fire); (2) abstract macro level (AM) (i.e., the relationships among temperature, pressure and volume); (3) micro level (Mi) (i.e., molecular activity). The sequencing methods of these levels were manipulated by changing the order in which they were delivered with three possibilities: (1) EM-AM-Mi; (2) Mi-AM-EM; (3) AM-Mi-EM. The level-bridging scaffolding variable was manipulated on two aspects: (1) inserting inter-level questions among learning activities; (2) two simulations dynamically linked in the final learning activity. Addressing the first research question, the Experiential macro-Abstract macro-Micro (EM-AM-Mi) sequencing method, following the "concrete to abstract" principle, produced better knowledge integration while the Micro-Abstract macro-Experiential macro (Mi-AM-EM) sequencing method, congruent with the causal direction of the emergent system, produced better understanding of the deep causal structure only when level-bridging scaffolding was provided. The Abstract macro-Micro-Experiential macro (AM-Mi-EM) sequencing method produced worse performance in general, because it did not follow the "concrete to abstract" principle, nor did it align with the causal structure of the emergent system. As to the second research question, the results showed that level-bridging scaffolding was important for both knowledge integration and understanding of the causal structure in learning the ideal gas law system.

Turning off the School-to-Prison Pipeline

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilson, Harry

2014-01-01

The causal link between educational exclusion and criminalization of youth is called the "school-to-prison pipeline." This is a byproduct of "zero tolerance" polices that have been widely discredited by research (APA, 2008; Skiba, 2014). However, these practices are still widespread in the United States and have been exported…

What Is the Long-Run Impact of Learning Mathematics during Preschool?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Watts, Tyler W.; Duncan, Greg J.; Clements, Douglas H.; Sarama, Julie

2018-01-01

The current study estimated the causal links between preschool mathematics learning and late elementary school mathematics achievement using variation in treatment assignment to an early mathematics intervention as an instrument for preschool mathematics change. Estimates indicate (n = 410) that a standard deviation of intervention-produced change…

Practical approaches to adverse outcome pathway development and weight‐of‐evidence evaluation as illustrated by ecotoxicological case studies

EPA Science Inventory

Adverse Outcome Pathways (AOPs) describe toxicant effects as a sequential chain of causally linked events beginning with a molecular perturbation and culminating in an adverse outcome at an individual or population level. Strategies for developing AOPs are still evolving and dep...

Building the Stock of College-Educated Labor

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dynarski, Susan

2008-01-01

Half of college students drop out without completing a degree. This paper establishes a causal link between college costs and degree completion. I use quasi-experimental methodology to analyze two state scholarship programs. The programs increase the share of the exposed population with a college degree by three percentage points, with stronger…

Long-Term Heavy Cannabis Use: Implications for Health Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Coggans, Niall; Dalgarno, Phil; Johnson, Lindsay; Shewan, David

2004-01-01

There is growing evidence that cannabis can have negative effects on health. While the ongoing debate about the nature and duration of these effects recognizes mild cognitive impairment, the evidence for irreversibility of cognitive impairment and causal links with psychiatric illness is not conclusive. There is undoubtedly potential for…

(n-3) Fatty acids alleviate adipose tissue inflammation and insulin resistance: Mechanistic insights

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Obesity is associated with the metabolic syndrome, a significant risk factor for developing type-2 diabetes and cardiovascular diseases. A chronic low-grade inflammation occurring in the adipose tissue of obese individuals is causally linked to the pathogenesis of insulin resistance and the metaboli...

The Three Stages of Critical Policy Methodology: An Example from Curriculum Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rata, Elizabeth

2014-01-01

The article identifies and discusses three stages in the critical policy methodology used in the sociology of education. These are: firstly, employing a political economy theoretical framework that identifies causal links between global forces and local developments; secondly, analysing educational policy within that theoretically conceptualised…

Memory and Language Improvements Following Cognitive Control Training

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hussey, Erika K.; Harbison, J. Isaiah; Teubner-Rhodes, Susan E.; Mishler, Alan; Velnoskey, Kayla; Novick, Jared M.

2017-01-01

Cognitive control refers to adjusting thoughts and actions when confronted with conflict during information processing. We tested whether this ability is causally linked to performance on certain language and memory tasks by using cognitive control training to systematically modulate people's ability to resolve information-conflict across domains.…

Increasing Educational Achievement via Self Concept Change.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Scheirer, Mary Ann; Kraut, Robert E.

1979-01-01

Literature linking self-concept and achievement, and evaluation research on educational programs to improve self-concept are analyzed in terms of several self-concept theories. Evidence for a causal connection between self-concept and achievement is negative. Researchers have failed to explore other theoretical approaches to educational change.…

Gender-Linked Perceptions and Causal Attributions of Female/Male Competencies.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Major, Harriet; Plake, Barbara S.

Undergraduate students (N=518) rated graduate application materials for males or females applying to traditionally perceived masculine or feminine fields. Independent variables were rater's pro/anti feminism, sex of subject, sex of referent, sex of field, and sex of attributes. Dependent variables were academic competence, personal dynamics,…

The Relationship between Psychopathology and Speech and Language Disorders in Neurologic Patients.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sapir, Shimon; Aronson, Arnold E.

1990-01-01

This paper reviews findings that suggest a causal relationship between depression, anxiety, or conversion reaction and voice, speech, and language disorders in neurologic patients. The paper emphasizes the need to consider the psychosocial and psychopathological aspects of neurologic communicative disorders, the link between emotional and…

The Association of Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder with Socioeconomic Disadvantage: Alternative Explanations and Evidence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Russell, Ginny; Ford, Tamsin; Rosenberg, Rachel; Kelly, Susan

2014-01-01

Background: Studies throughout Northern Europe, the United States and Australia have found an association between childhood attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and family socioeconomic disadvantage. We report further evidence for the association and review potential causal pathways that might explain the link. Methods: Secondary…

Toxicology and Epidemiology: Improving the Science with a Framework for Combining Toxicological and Epidemiological Evidence to Establish Causal Inference

PubMed Central

Adami, Hans-Olov; Berry, Sir Colin L.; Breckenridge, Charles B.; Smith, Lewis L.; Swenberg, James A.; Trichopoulos, Dimitrios; Weiss, Noel S.; Pastoor, Timothy P.

2011-01-01

Historically, toxicology has played a significant role in verifying conclusions drawn on the basis of epidemiological findings. Agents that were suggested to have a role in human diseases have been tested in animals to firmly establish a causative link. Bacterial pathogens are perhaps the oldest examples, and tobacco smoke and lung cancer and asbestos and mesothelioma provide two more recent examples. With the advent of toxicity testing guidelines and protocols, toxicology took on a role that was intended to anticipate or predict potential adverse effects in humans, and epidemiology, in many cases, served a role in verifying or negating these toxicological predictions. The coupled role of epidemiology and toxicology in discerning human health effects by environmental agents is obvious, but there is currently no systematic and transparent way to bring the data and analysis of the two disciplines together in a way that provides a unified view on an adverse causal relationship between an agent and a disease. In working to advance the interaction between the fields of toxicology and epidemiology, we propose here a five-step “Epid-Tox” process that would focus on: (1) collection of all relevant studies, (2) assessment of their quality, (3) evaluation of the weight of evidence, (4) assignment of a scalable conclusion, and (5) placement on a causal relationship grid. The causal relationship grid provides a clear view of how epidemiological and toxicological data intersect, permits straightforward conclusions with regard to a causal relationship between agent and effect, and can show how additional data can influence conclusions of causality. PMID:21561883

A causal analysis framework for land-use change and the potential role of bioenergy policy

DOE PAGES

Efroymson, Rebecca A.; Kline, Keith L.; Angelsen, Arild; ...

2016-10-05

Here we propose a causal analysis framework to increase the reliability of land-use change (LUC) models and the accuracy of net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions calculations for biofuels. The health-sciences-inspired framework is used here to determine probable causes of LUC, with an emphasis on bioenergy and deforestation. Calculations of net GHG emissions for LUC are critical in determining whether a fuel qualifies as a biofuel or advanced biofuel category under national (U.S., U.K.), state (California), and European Union regulations. Biofuel policymakers and scientists continue to discuss whether presumed indirect land-use change (ILUC) estimates, which often involve deforestation, should be includedmore » in GHG accounting for biofuel pathways. Current estimates of ILUC for bioenergy rely largely on economic simulation models that focus on causal pathways involving global commodity trade and use coarse land cover data with simple land classification systems. ILUC estimates are highly uncertain, partly because changes are not clearly defined and key causal links are not sufficiently included in the models. The proposed causal analysis framework begins with a definition of the change that has occurred and proceeds to a strength-of-evidence approach based on types of epidemiological evidence including plausibility of the relationship, completeness of the causal pathway, spatial co-occurrence, time order, analogous agents, simulation model results, and quantitative agent response relationships.Lastly, we discuss how LUC may be allocated among probable causes for policy purposes and how the application of the framework has the potential to increase the validity of LUC models and resolve ILUC and biofuel controversies.« less

A causal analysis framework for land-use change and the potential role of bioenergy policy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Efroymson, Rebecca A.; Kline, Keith L.; Angelsen, Arild

Here we propose a causal analysis framework to increase the reliability of land-use change (LUC) models and the accuracy of net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions calculations for biofuels. The health-sciences-inspired framework is used here to determine probable causes of LUC, with an emphasis on bioenergy and deforestation. Calculations of net GHG emissions for LUC are critical in determining whether a fuel qualifies as a biofuel or advanced biofuel category under national (U.S., U.K.), state (California), and European Union regulations. Biofuel policymakers and scientists continue to discuss whether presumed indirect land-use change (ILUC) estimates, which often involve deforestation, should be includedmore » in GHG accounting for biofuel pathways. Current estimates of ILUC for bioenergy rely largely on economic simulation models that focus on causal pathways involving global commodity trade and use coarse land cover data with simple land classification systems. ILUC estimates are highly uncertain, partly because changes are not clearly defined and key causal links are not sufficiently included in the models. The proposed causal analysis framework begins with a definition of the change that has occurred and proceeds to a strength-of-evidence approach based on types of epidemiological evidence including plausibility of the relationship, completeness of the causal pathway, spatial co-occurrence, time order, analogous agents, simulation model results, and quantitative agent response relationships.Lastly, we discuss how LUC may be allocated among probable causes for policy purposes and how the application of the framework has the potential to increase the validity of LUC models and resolve ILUC and biofuel controversies.« less

Decisions Concerning Directional Dependence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

von Eye, Alexander; DeShon, Richard P.

2012-01-01

In this rejoinder, von Eye and DeShon discuss the decision strategies proposed in their original article ("Directional Dependence in Developmental Research," this issue), as well as the ones proposed by the authors of the commentary (Pornprasertmanit and Little, "Determining Directional Dependency in Causal Associations," this issue). In addition,…

Application of dynamic uncertain causality graph in spacecraft fault diagnosis: Logic cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Quanying; Zhang, Qin; Liu, Peng; Yang, Ping; Zhu, Ma; Wang, Xiaochen

2017-04-01

Intelligent diagnosis system are applied to fault diagnosis in spacecraft. Dynamic Uncertain Causality Graph (DUCG) is a new probability graphic model with many advantages. In the knowledge expression of spacecraft fault diagnosis, feedback among variables is frequently encountered, which may cause directed cyclic graphs (DCGs). Probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) such as bayesian network (BN) have been widely applied in uncertain causality representation and probabilistic reasoning, but BN does not allow DCGs. In this paper, DUGG is applied to fault diagnosis in spacecraft: introducing the inference algorithm for the DUCG to deal with feedback. Now, DUCG has been tested in 16 typical faults with 100% diagnosis accuracy.

Acoustic integrated extinction.

PubMed

Norris, Andrew N

2015-05-08

The integrated extinction (IE) is defined as the integral of the scattering cross section as a function of wavelength. Sohl et al. (2007 J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 122 , 3206-3210. (doi:10.1121/1.2801546)) derived an IE expression for acoustic scattering that is causal, i.e. the scattered wavefront in the forward direction arrives later than the incident plane wave in the background medium. The IE formula was based on electromagnetic results, for which scattering is causal by default. Here, we derive a formula for the acoustic IE that is valid for causal and non-causal scattering. The general result is expressed as an integral of the time-dependent forward scattering function. The IE reduces to a finite integral for scatterers with zero long-wavelength monopole and dipole amplitudes. Implications for acoustic cloaking are discussed and a new metric is proposed for broadband acoustic transparency.

Systems GMM estimates of the health care spending and GDP relationship: a note.

PubMed

Kumar, Saten

2013-06-01

This paper utilizes the systems generalized method of moments (GMM) [Arellano and Bover (1995) J Econometrics 68:29-51; Blundell and Bond (1998) J Econometrics 87:115-143], and panel Granger causality [Hurlin and Venet (2001) Granger Causality tests in panel data models with fixed coefficients. Mime'o, University Paris IX], to investigate the health care spending and gross domestic product (GDP) relationship for organisation for economic co-operation and development countries over the period 1960-2007. The system GMM estimates confirm that the contribution of real GDP to health spending is significant and positive. The panel Granger causality tests imply that a bi-directional causality exists between health spending and GDP. To this end, policies aimed at raising health spending will eventually improve the well-being of the population in the long run.

A short educational intervention diminishes causal illusions and specific paranormal beliefs in undergraduates.

PubMed

Barberia, Itxaso; Tubau, Elisabet; Matute, Helena; Rodríguez-Ferreiro, Javier

2018-01-01

Cognitive biases such as causal illusions have been related to paranormal and pseudoscientific beliefs and, thus, pose a real threat to the development of adequate critical thinking abilities. We aimed to reduce causal illusions in undergraduates by means of an educational intervention combining training-in-bias and training-in-rules techniques. First, participants directly experienced situations that tend to induce the Barnum effect and the confirmation bias. Thereafter, these effects were explained and examples of their influence over everyday life were provided. Compared to a control group, participants who received the intervention showed diminished causal illusions in a contingency learning task and a decrease in the precognition dimension of a paranormal belief scale. Overall, results suggest that evidence-based educational interventions like the one presented here could be used to significantly improve critical thinking skills in our students.

Multivariate Granger causality: an estimation framework based on factorization of the spectral density matrix

PubMed Central

Wen, Xiaotong; Rangarajan, Govindan; Ding, Mingzhou

2013-01-01

Granger causality is increasingly being applied to multi-electrode neurophysiological and functional imaging data to characterize directional interactions between neurons and brain regions. For a multivariate dataset, one might be interested in different subsets of the recorded neurons or brain regions. According to the current estimation framework, for each subset, one conducts a separate autoregressive model fitting process, introducing the potential for unwanted variability and uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a multivariate framework for estimating Granger causality. It is based on spectral density matrix factorization and offers the advantage that the estimation of such a matrix needs to be done only once for the entire multivariate dataset. For any subset of recorded data, Granger causality can be calculated through factorizing the appropriate submatrix of the overall spectral density matrix. PMID:23858479

Reflecting on explanatory ability: A mechanism for detecting gaps in causal knowledge.

PubMed

Johnson, Dan R; Murphy, Meredith P; Messer, Riley M

2016-05-01

People frequently overestimate their understanding-with a particularly large blind-spot for gaps in their causal knowledge. We introduce a metacognitive approach to reducing overestimation, termed reflecting on explanatory ability (REA), which is briefly thinking about how well one could explain something in a mechanistic, step-by-step, causally connected manner. Nine experiments demonstrated that engaging in REA just before estimating one's understanding substantially reduced overestimation. Moreover, REA reduced overestimation with nearly the same potency as generating full explanations, but did so 20 times faster (although only for high complexity objects). REA substantially reduced overestimation by inducing participants to quickly evaluate an object's inherent causal complexity (Experiments 4-7). REA reduced overestimation by also fostering step-by-step, causally connected processing (Experiments 2 and 3). Alternative explanations for REA's effects were ruled out including a general conservatism account (Experiments 4 and 5) and a covert explanation account (Experiment 8). REA's overestimation-reduction effect generalized beyond objects (Experiments 1-8) to sociopolitical policies (Experiment 9). REA efficiently detects gaps in our causal knowledge with implications for improving self-directed learning, enhancing self-insight into vocational and academic abilities, and even reducing extremist attitudes. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Bayesian networks improve causal environmental ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Rule-based weight of evidence approaches to ecological risk assessment may not account for uncertainties and generally lack probabilistic integration of lines of evidence. Bayesian networks allow causal inferences to be made from evidence by including causal knowledge about the problem, using this knowledge with probabilistic calculus to combine multiple lines of evidence, and minimizing biases in predicting or diagnosing causal relationships. Too often, sources of uncertainty in conventional weight of evidence approaches are ignored that can be accounted for with Bayesian networks. Specifying and propagating uncertainties improve the ability of models to incorporate strength of the evidence in the risk management phase of an assessment. Probabilistic inference from a Bayesian network allows evaluation of changes in uncertainty for variables from the evidence. The network structure and probabilistic framework of a Bayesian approach provide advantages over qualitative approaches in weight of evidence for capturing the impacts of multiple sources of quantifiable uncertainty on predictions of ecological risk. Bayesian networks can facilitate the development of evidence-based policy under conditions of uncertainty by incorporating analytical inaccuracies or the implications of imperfect information, structuring and communicating causal issues through qualitative directed graph formulations, and quantitatively comparing the causal power of multiple stressors on value

Testing the relationships between energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and economic growth in 24 African countries: a panel ARDL approach.

PubMed

Asongu, Simplice; El Montasser, Ghassen; Toumi, Hassen

2016-04-01

This study complements existing literature by examining the nexus between energy consumption (EC), CO2 emissions (CE), and economic growth (GDP; gross domestic product) in 24 African countries using a panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. The following findings are established. First, there is a long-run relationship between EC, CE, and GDP. Second, a long-term effect from CE to GDP and EC is apparent, with reciprocal paths. Third, the error correction mechanisms are consistently stable. However, in cases of disequilibrium, only EC can be significantly adjusted to its long-run relationship. Fourth, there is a long-run causality running from GDP and CE to EC. Fifth, we find causality running from either CE or both CE and EC to GDP, and inverse causal paths are observable. Causality from EC to GDP is not strong, which supports the conservative hypothesis. Sixth, the causal direction from EC to GDP remains unobservable in the short term. By contrast, the opposite path is observable. There are also no short-run causalities from GDP, or EC, or EC, and GDP to EC. Policy implications are discussed.

The effect of animal health compensation on 'positive' behaviours towards exotic disease reporting and implementing biosecurity: A review, a synthesis and a research agenda.

PubMed

Barnes, Andrew Peter; Moxey, Andrew Paul; Vosough Ahmadi, Bouda; Borthwick, Fiona Ann

2015-11-01

With an increasing burden on public sector budgets, increased responsibility and cost sharing mechanisms for animal diseases are being considered. To achieve this, fiscal and non-fiscal intervention policies need to be designed such that they consistently promote positive disease risk management practices by animal keepers. This paper presents a review of the available evidence towards whether and how the level and type of funding mechanism affects change within biosecurity behaviours and the frequency of disease reporting. A Nuffield Health Ladder of Interventions approach is proposed as a way to frame the debate surrounding both current compensation mechanisms and how it is expected to change behaviour. Results of the review reveal a division between economic modelling approaches, which implicitly assume a causal link between payments and positive behaviours, and socio-geographic approaches which tend to ignore the influence of compensation mechanisms on influencing behaviours. Generally, economic studies suggest less than full compensation rates will encourage positive behaviours, but the non-economic literature indicate significant variation in response to compensation reflecting heterogeneity of livestock keepers in terms of their values, goals, risk attitudes, size of operation, animal species and production chain characteristics. This may be of encouragement to Western Governments seeking to shift cost burdens as it may induce greater targeting of non-fiscal mechanisms, or suggest more novel ways to augment current compensation mechanisms to both increase responsibility sharing and reduce this cost burden. This review suggests that a range of regulatory, fiscal and nudging policies are required to achieve socially optimal results with respect to positive behaviour change. However, the lack of directly available evidence which proves these causal links may hinder progress towards this optimal mixture of choice and non-choice based interventions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dimension reduction of frequency-based direct Granger causality measures on short time series.

PubMed

Siggiridou, Elsa; Kimiskidis, Vasilios K; Kugiumtzis, Dimitris

2017-09-01

The mainstream in the estimation of effective brain connectivity relies on Granger causality measures in the frequency domain. If the measure is meant to capture direct causal effects accounting for the presence of other observed variables, as in multi-channel electroencephalograms (EEG), typically the fit of a vector autoregressive (VAR) model on the multivariate time series is required. For short time series of many variables, the estimation of VAR may not be stable requiring dimension reduction resulting in restricted or sparse VAR models. The restricted VAR obtained by the modified backward-in-time selection method (mBTS) is adapted to the generalized partial directed coherence (GPDC), termed restricted GPDC (RGPDC). Dimension reduction on other frequency based measures, such the direct directed transfer function (dDTF), is straightforward. First, a simulation study using linear stochastic multivariate systems is conducted and RGPDC is favorably compared to GPDC on short time series in terms of sensitivity and specificity. Then the two measures are tested for their ability to detect changes in brain connectivity during an epileptiform discharge (ED) from multi-channel scalp EEG. It is shown that RGPDC identifies better than GPDC the connectivity structure of the simulated systems, as well as changes in the brain connectivity, and is less dependent on the free parameter of VAR order. The proposed dimension reduction in frequency measures based on VAR constitutes an appropriate strategy to estimate reliably brain networks within short-time windows. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Upsampling to 400-ms Resolution for Assessing Effective Connectivity in Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging Data with Granger Causality

PubMed Central

Kerr, Deborah L.; Nitschke, Jack B.

2013-01-01

Abstract Granger causality analysis of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) blood-oxygen-level-dependent signal data allows one to infer the direction and magnitude of influence that brain regions exert on one another. We employed a method for upsampling the time resolution of fMRI data that does not require additional interpolation beyond the interpolation that is regularly used for slice-timing correction. The mathematics for this new method are provided, and simulations demonstrate its viability. Using fMRI, 17 snake phobics and 19 healthy controls viewed snake, disgust, and neutral fish video clips preceded by anticipatory cues. Multivariate Granger causality models at the native 2-sec resolution and at the upsampled 400-ms resolution assessed directional associations of fMRI data among 13 anatomical regions of interest identified in prior research on anxiety and emotion. Superior sensitivity was observed for the 400-ms model, both for connectivity within each group and for group differences in connectivity. Context-dependent analyses for the 400-ms multivariate Granger causality model revealed the specific trial types showing group differences in connectivity. This is the first demonstration of effective connectivity of fMRI data using a method for achieving 400-ms resolution without sacrificing accuracy available at 2-sec resolution. PMID:23134194

Assessing natural direct and indirect effects through multiple pathways.

PubMed

Lange, Theis; Rasmussen, Mette; Thygesen, Lau Caspar

2014-02-15

Within the fields of epidemiology, interventions research and social sciences researchers are often faced with the challenge of decomposing the effect of an exposure into different causal pathways working through defined mediator variables. The goal of such analyses is often to understand the mechanisms of the system or to suggest possible interventions. The case of a single mediator, thus implying only 2 causal pathways (direct and indirect) from exposure to outcome, has been extensively studied. By using the framework of counterfactual variables, researchers have established theoretical properties and developed powerful tools. However, in practical problems, it is not uncommon to have several distinct causal pathways from exposure to outcome operating through different mediators. In this article, we suggest a widely applicable approach to quantifying and ranking different causal pathways. The approach is an extension of the natural effect models proposed by Lange et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2012;176(3):190-195). By allowing the analysis of distinct multiple pathways, the suggested approach adds to the capabilities of modern mediation techniques. Furthermore, the approach can be implemented using standard software, and we have included with this article implementation examples using R (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria) and Stata software (StataCorp LP, College Station, Texas).

Reflux and Voice Disorders: Have We Established Causality?

PubMed Central

Schneider, G. Todd; Vaezi, Michael F.; Francis, David O.

2017-01-01

A trend of attributing abnormal voice changes to reflux has gained momentum among medical professionals over the last few decades. Evidence supporting the connection between reflux and voice and the use of anti-reflux medication in patients with dysphonia is conflicting and deserves careful examination. In the current health care environment, it is important that medical decisions be based on science rather than anecdote and practice patterns. The goal of this review is to investigate the evidence linking reflux and voice changes. Specifically, this association will be examined in the context of the Bradford-Hill criteria to determine what evidence exists for a causal relationship between this exposure (reflux) and outcome (voice change). PMID:28163985

Primary prevention in public health: an analysis of basic assumptions.

PubMed

Ratcliffe, J; Wallack, L

1985-01-01

The common definition of primary prevention is straightforward; but how it is transformed into a framework to guide action is based on personal and societal feelings and beliefs about the basis for social organization. This article focuses on the two contending primary prevention strategies of health promotion and health protection. The contention between the two strategies stems from a basic disagreement about disease causality in modern society. Health promotion is based on the "lifestyle" theory of disease causality, which sees individual health status linked ultimately to personal decisions about diet, stress, and drug habits. Primary prevention, from this perspective, entails persuading individuals to forgo their risk-taking, self-destructive behavior. Health protection, on the other hand, is based on the "social-structural" theory of disease causality. This theory sees the health status of populations linked ultimately to the unequal distribution of social resources, industrial pollution, occupational stress, and "anti-health promotion" marketing practices. Primary prevention, from this perspective, requires changing existing social and, particularly, economic policies and structures. In order to provide a basis for choosing between these contending strategies, the demonstrated (i.e., past) impact of each strategy on the health of the public is examined. Two conclusions are drawn. First, the health promotion strategy shows little potential for improving the public health, because it systematically ignores the risk-imposing, other-destructive behavior of influential actors (policy-makers and institutions) in society. And second, effective primary prevention efforts entail an "upstream" approach that results in far-reaching sociopolitical and economic change.

Innovations in health and demographic surveillance systems to establish the causal impacts of HIV policies.

PubMed

Herbst, Kobus; Law, Matthew; Geldsetzer, Pascal; Tanser, Frank; Harling, Guy; Bärnighausen, Till

2015-11-01

Health and demographic surveillance systems (HDSS), in conjunction with HIV treatment cohorts, have made important contributions to our understanding of the impact of HIV treatment and treatment-related interventions in sub-Saharan Africa. The purpose of this review is to describe and discuss innovations in data collection and data linkage that will create new opportunities to establish the impacts of HIV treatment, as well as policies affecting the treatment cascade, on population health and economic and social outcomes. Novel approaches to routine collection of biomarkers, behavioural data, spatial data, social network information, migration events and mobile phone records can significantly strengthen the potential of HDSS to generate exposure and outcome data for causal analysis of HIV treatment impact and policies affecting the HIV treatment cascade. Additionally, by linking HDSS data to health service administration, education and welfare service records, researchers can substantially broaden opportunities to establish how HIV treatment affects health and economic outcomes when delivered through public sector health systems and at scale. As the HIV treatment scaleup in sub-Saharan Africa enters its second decade, it is becoming increasingly important to understand the long-term causal impacts of large-scale HIV treatment and related policies on broader population health outcomes, such as noncommunicable diseases, as well as on economic and social outcomes, such as family welfare and children's educational attainment. By collecting novel data and linking existing data to public sector records, HDSS can create near-unique opportunities to contribute to this research agenda.

Imbalanced functional link between reward circuits and the cognitive control system in patients with obsessive-compulsive disorder.

PubMed

Xie, Chunming; Ma, Lisha; Jiang, Nan; Huang, Ruyan; Li, Li; Gong, Liang; He, Cancan; Xiao, Chaoyong; Liu, Wen; Xu, Shu; Zhang, Zhijun

2017-08-01

Altered reward processing and cognitive deficits are often observed in patients with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD); however, whether the imbalance in activity between reward circuits and the cognitive control (CC) system is associated with compulsive behavior remains unknown. Sixty-eight OCD patients and 33 cognitively normal (CN) healthy subjects participated in this resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging study. Alterations in the functional connectivity between reward circuits and the CC system were quantitatively assessed and compared between the groups. A Granger causality analysis was used to determine the causal informational influence between and within reward circuits and the CC system across all subjects. OCD patients showed a dichotomous pattern of enhanced functional coupling in their reward circuits and a weakened functional coupling in their CC system when compared to CN subjects. Neural correlates of compulsive behavior were primarily located in the reward circuits and CC system in OCD patients. Importantly, the CC system exerted a reduced interregional causal influence over the reward system in OCD patients relative to its effect in CN subjects. The limitations of this study are that it was a cross-sectional study and the potential effects of environmental and genetic factors were not explored. OCD patients showed an imbalance in the functional link between reward circuits and the CC system at rest. This bias toward a loss of control may define a pathological state in which subjects are more vulnerable to engaging in compulsive behaviors.

Personal practical theories, self-identity, and astronomy teachers' interactive decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richmond, Marvin Elliot

2005-12-01

Research has suggested that beliefs play a major role in selecting and defining teaching tasks and organizing the knowledge needed to perform those tasks. Teachers, consciously or unconsciously, depend on beliefs because they work in ill-structured domains where traditional problem solving techniques and academic knowledge do not work as well. The goal of this project was to establish, if possible, a causal link between teacher beliefs and interactive decision making through empirical, qualitative research. The hypothesis was, that when faced with those sorts of situations, the participants would fall back on belief systems that did not necessarily have a rational basis. The research focused on astronomy teachers in community colleges. Since most science reform efforts are directed toward primary and secondary schools, community college science teaching remains a neglected area of study. Yet community colleges are predicted to play an increasingly important role in higher education in the near future. For many students, community college science classes may represent their last encounter with formal, academic, science programs. The three participants were interviewed and observed in the classroom over an extended period. Initial interviews were conducted with each participant to capture stated beliefs. After the extensive classroom observations, stimulated recall interviews were held with each participant viewing short, edited segments of the classroom videotapes. No direct causal link between beliefs (in the conventional sense of the word) and participant decision making is apparent from this empirical research. However, the construct of personal practical theories, which includes beliefs as one component, shows promise as a significant determining factor in interactive decision making. Themes have been developed that represent each participant's personal practical theories. The strongest theme, applicable to all participants, is based on the notion of extemporaneous lessons within a structured context of an implied contract between the students and the teachers. The terms of this implied contract are found in the administrative constraints, the systemic constraints, the personal restraints of the participant teachers, and the personal restraints of the students. The name assigned to this unifying theme is "planned spontaneity." While sounding like an oxymoron, it concisely suggests the kind of flexibility required of all teachers who are faced with an ever shifting classroom environment.

Causal structures in Gauss-Bonnet gravity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Izumi, Keisuke

2014-08-01

We analyze causal structures in Gauss-Bonnet gravity. It is known that Gauss-Bonnet gravity potentially has superluminal propagation of gravitons due to its noncanonical kinetic terms. In a theory with superluminal modes, an analysis of causality based on null curves makes no sense, and thus, we need to analyze them in a different way. In this paper, using the method of the characteristics, we analyze the causal structure in Gauss-Bonnet gravity. We have the result that, on a Killing horizon, gravitons can propagate in the null direction tangent to the Killing horizon. Therefore, a Killing horizon can be a causal edge as in the case of general relativity; i.e. a Killing horizon is the "event horizon" in the sense of causality. We also analyze causal structures on nonstationary solutions with (D-2)-dimensional maximal symmetry, including spherically symmetric and flat spaces. If the geometrical null energy condition, RABNANB≥0 for any null vector NA, is satisfied, the radial velocity of gravitons must be less than or equal to that of light. However, if the geometrical null energy condition is violated, gravitons can propagate faster than light. Hence, on an evaporating black hole where the geometrical null energy condition is expected not to hold, classical gravitons can escape from the "black hole" defined with null curves. That is, the causal structures become nontrivial. It may be one of the possible solutions for the information loss paradox of evaporating black holes.

Implementation and reporting of causal mediation analysis in 2015: a systematic review in epidemiological studies.

PubMed

Liu, Shao-Hsien; Ulbricht, Christine M; Chrysanthopoulou, Stavroula A; Lapane, Kate L

2016-07-20

Causal mediation analysis is often used to understand the impact of variables along the causal pathway of an occurrence relation. How well studies apply and report the elements of causal mediation analysis remains unknown. We systematically reviewed epidemiological studies published in 2015 that employed causal mediation analysis to estimate direct and indirect effects of observed associations between an exposure on an outcome. We identified potential epidemiological studies through conducting a citation search within Web of Science and a keyword search within PubMed. Two reviewers independently screened studies for eligibility. For eligible studies, one reviewer performed data extraction, and a senior epidemiologist confirmed the extracted information. Empirical application and methodological details of the technique were extracted and summarized. Thirteen studies were eligible for data extraction. While the majority of studies reported and identified the effects of measures, most studies lacked sufficient details on the extent to which identifiability assumptions were satisfied. Although most studies addressed issues of unmeasured confounders either from empirical approaches or sensitivity analyses, the majority did not examine the potential bias arising from the measurement error of the mediator. Some studies allowed for exposure-mediator interaction and only a few presented results from models both with and without interactions. Power calculations were scarce. Reporting of causal mediation analysis is varied and suboptimal. Given that the application of causal mediation analysis will likely continue to increase, developing standards of reporting of causal mediation analysis in epidemiological research would be prudent.

Direction-Dependence Analysis: A Confirmatory Approach for Testing Directional Theories

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wiedermann, Wolfgang; von Eye, Alexander

2015-01-01

The concept of direction dependence has attracted growing attention due to its potential to help decide which of two competing linear regression models (X ? Y or Y ? X) is more likely to reflect the correct causal flow. Several tests have been proposed to evaluate hypotheses compatible with direction dependence. In this issue, Thoemmes (2015)…

Mechanics of human voice production and control

PubMed Central

Zhang, Zhaoyan

2016-01-01

As the primary means of communication, voice plays an important role in daily life. Voice also conveys personal information such as social status, personal traits, and the emotional state of the speaker. Mechanically, voice production involves complex fluid-structure interaction within the glottis and its control by laryngeal muscle activation. An important goal of voice research is to establish a causal theory linking voice physiology and biomechanics to how speakers use and control voice to communicate meaning and personal information. Establishing such a causal theory has important implications for clinical voice management, voice training, and many speech technology applications. This paper provides a review of voice physiology and biomechanics, the physics of vocal fold vibration and sound production, and laryngeal muscular control of the fundamental frequency of voice, vocal intensity, and voice quality. Current efforts to develop mechanical and computational models of voice production are also critically reviewed. Finally, issues and future challenges in developing a causal theory of voice production and perception are discussed. PMID:27794319

Mechanics of human voice production and control.

PubMed

Zhang, Zhaoyan

2016-10-01

As the primary means of communication, voice plays an important role in daily life. Voice also conveys personal information such as social status, personal traits, and the emotional state of the speaker. Mechanically, voice production involves complex fluid-structure interaction within the glottis and its control by laryngeal muscle activation. An important goal of voice research is to establish a causal theory linking voice physiology and biomechanics to how speakers use and control voice to communicate meaning and personal information. Establishing such a causal theory has important implications for clinical voice management, voice training, and many speech technology applications. This paper provides a review of voice physiology and biomechanics, the physics of vocal fold vibration and sound production, and laryngeal muscular control of the fundamental frequency of voice, vocal intensity, and voice quality. Current efforts to develop mechanical and computational models of voice production are also critically reviewed. Finally, issues and future challenges in developing a causal theory of voice production and perception are discussed.

Common sense: folk wisdom that ethnobiological and ethnomedical research cannot afford to ignore

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Common sense [CS], especially that of the non-scientist, can have predictive power to identify promising research avenues, as humans anywhere on Earth have always looked for causal links to understand, shape and control the world around them. CS is based on the experience of many individuals and is thus believed to hold some truths. Outcomes predicted by CS are compatible with observations made by whole populations and have survived tests conducted by a plethora of non-scientists. To explore our claim, we provide 4 examples of empirical insights (relevant to probably all ethnic groups on Earth) into causal phenomena predicted by CS: (i) “humans must have a sense of time”, (ii) “at extreme latitudes, more people have the winter blues”, (iii) “sleep is a cure for many ills” and (iv) “social networks affect health and disease”. While CS is fallible, it should not be ignored by science – however improbable or self-evident the causal relationships predicted by CS may appear to be. PMID:24295068

Network Mendelian randomization: using genetic variants as instrumental variables to investigate mediation in causal pathways

PubMed Central

Burgess, Stephen; Daniel, Rhian M; Butterworth, Adam S; Thompson, Simon G

2015-01-01

Background: Mendelian randomization uses genetic variants, assumed to be instrumental variables for a particular exposure, to estimate the causal effect of that exposure on an outcome. If the instrumental variable criteria are satisfied, the resulting estimator is consistent even in the presence of unmeasured confounding and reverse causation. Methods: We extend the Mendelian randomization paradigm to investigate more complex networks of relationships between variables, in particular where some of the effect of an exposure on the outcome may operate through an intermediate variable (a mediator). If instrumental variables for the exposure and mediator are available, direct and indirect effects of the exposure on the outcome can be estimated, for example using either a regression-based method or structural equation models. The direction of effect between the exposure and a possible mediator can also be assessed. Methods are illustrated in an applied example considering causal relationships between body mass index, C-reactive protein and uric acid. Results: These estimators are consistent in the presence of unmeasured confounding if, in addition to the instrumental variable assumptions, the effects of both the exposure on the mediator and the mediator on the outcome are homogeneous across individuals and linear without interactions. Nevertheless, a simulation study demonstrates that even considerable heterogeneity in these effects does not lead to bias in the estimates. Conclusions: These methods can be used to estimate direct and indirect causal effects in a mediation setting, and have potential for the investigation of more complex networks between multiple interrelated exposures and disease outcomes. PMID:25150977

The causal role of breakfast in energy balance and health: a randomized controlled trial in lean adults1234

PubMed Central

Betts, James A; Richardson, Judith D; Chowdhury, Enhad A; Holman, Geoffrey D; Tsintzas, Kostas; Thompson, Dylan

2014-01-01

Background: Popular beliefs that breakfast is the most important meal of the day are grounded in cross-sectional observations that link breakfast to health, the causal nature of which remains to be explored under real-life conditions. Objective: The aim was to conduct a randomized controlled trial examining causal links between breakfast habits and all components of energy balance in free-living humans. Design: The Bath Breakfast Project is a randomized controlled trial with repeated-measures at baseline and follow-up in a cohort in southwest England aged 21–60 y with dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry–derived fat mass indexes ≤11 kg/m2 in women (n = 21) and ≤7.5 kg/m2 in men (n = 12). Components of energy balance (resting metabolic rate, physical activity thermogenesis, energy intake) and 24-h glycemic responses were measured under free-living conditions with random allocation to daily breakfast (≥700 kcal before 1100) or extended fasting (0 kcal until 1200) for 6 wk, with baseline and follow-up measures of health markers (eg, hematology/biopsies). Results: Contrary to popular belief, there was no metabolic adaptation to breakfast (eg, resting metabolic rate stable within 11 kcal/d), with limited subsequent suppression of appetite (energy intake remained 539 kcal/d greater than after fasting; 95% CI: 157, 920 kcal/d). Rather, physical activity thermogenesis was markedly higher with breakfast than with fasting (442 kcal/d; 95% CI: 34, 851 kcal/d). Body mass and adiposity did not differ between treatments at baseline or follow-up and neither did adipose tissue glucose uptake or systemic indexes of cardiovascular health. Continuously measured glycemia was more variable during the afternoon and evening with fasting than with breakfast by the final week of the intervention (CV: 3.9%; 95% CI: 0.1%, 7.8%). Conclusions: Daily breakfast is causally linked to higher physical activity thermogenesis in lean adults, with greater overall dietary energy intake but no change in resting metabolism. Cardiovascular health indexes were unaffected by either of the treatments, but breakfast maintained more stable afternoon and evening glycemia than did fasting. This trial was registered at www.isrctn.org as ISRCTN31521726. PMID:24898233

A short educational intervention diminishes causal illusions and specific paranormal beliefs in undergraduates

PubMed Central

Tubau, Elisabet; Matute, Helena

2018-01-01

Cognitive biases such as causal illusions have been related to paranormal and pseudoscientific beliefs and, thus, pose a real threat to the development of adequate critical thinking abilities. We aimed to reduce causal illusions in undergraduates by means of an educational intervention combining training-in-bias and training-in-rules techniques. First, participants directly experienced situations that tend to induce the Barnum effect and the confirmation bias. Thereafter, these effects were explained and examples of their influence over everyday life were provided. Compared to a control group, participants who received the intervention showed diminished causal illusions in a contingency learning task and a decrease in the precognition dimension of a paranormal belief scale. Overall, results suggest that evidence-based educational interventions like the one presented here could be used to significantly improve critical thinking skills in our students. PMID:29385184

Causal Impact of Employee Work Perceptions on the Bottom Line of Organizations.

PubMed

Harter, James K; Schmidt, Frank L; Asplund, James W; Killham, Emily A; Agrawal, Sangeeta

2010-07-01

Perceptions of work conditions have proven to be important to the well-being of workers. However, customer loyalty, employee retention, revenue, sales, and profit are essential to the success of any business. It is known that these outcomes are correlated with employee attitudes and perceptions of work conditions, but the research into direction of causality has been inconclusive. Using a massive longitudinal database that included 2,178 business units in 10 large organizations, we found evidence supporting the causal impact of employee perceptions on these bottom-line measures; reverse causality of bottom-line measures on employee perceptions existed but was weaker. Managerial actions and practices can impact employee work conditions and employee perceptions of these conditions, thereby improving key outcomes at the organizational level. Perceptions of specific work conditions that engage employees in their work provide practical guidance in how best to manage people to obtain desired results. © The Author(s) 2010.

Recurrence measure of conditional dependence and applications.

PubMed

Ramos, Antônio M T; Builes-Jaramillo, Alejandro; Poveda, Germán; Goswami, Bedartha; Macau, Elbert E N; Kurths, Jürgen; Marwan, Norbert

2017-05-01

Identifying causal relations from observational data sets has posed great challenges in data-driven causality inference studies. One of the successful approaches to detect direct coupling in the information theory framework is transfer entropy. However, the core of entropy-based tools lies on the probability estimation of the underlying variables. Here we propose a data-driven approach for causality inference that incorporates recurrence plot features into the framework of information theory. We define it as the recurrence measure of conditional dependence (RMCD), and we present some applications. The RMCD quantifies the causal dependence between two processes based on joint recurrence patterns between the past of the possible driver and present of the potentially driven, excepting the contribution of the contemporaneous past of the driven variable. Finally, it can unveil the time scale of the influence of the sea-surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean on the precipitation in the Amazonia during recent major droughts.

Recurrence measure of conditional dependence and applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, Antônio M. T.; Builes-Jaramillo, Alejandro; Poveda, Germán; Goswami, Bedartha; Macau, Elbert E. N.; Kurths, Jürgen; Marwan, Norbert

2017-05-01

Identifying causal relations from observational data sets has posed great challenges in data-driven causality inference studies. One of the successful approaches to detect direct coupling in the information theory framework is transfer entropy. However, the core of entropy-based tools lies on the probability estimation of the underlying variables. Here we propose a data-driven approach for causality inference that incorporates recurrence plot features into the framework of information theory. We define it as the recurrence measure of conditional dependence (RMCD), and we present some applications. The RMCD quantifies the causal dependence between two processes based on joint recurrence patterns between the past of the possible driver and present of the potentially driven, excepting the contribution of the contemporaneous past of the driven variable. Finally, it can unveil the time scale of the influence of the sea-surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean on the precipitation in the Amazonia during recent major droughts.

Does finance affect environmental degradation: evidence from One Belt and One Road Initiative region?

PubMed

Hafeez, Muhammad; Chunhui, Yuan; Strohmaier, David; Ahmed, Manzoor; Jie, Liu

2018-04-01

This paper explores the effects of finance on environmental degradation and investigates environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) of each country among 52 that participate in the One Belt and One Road Initiative (OBORI) using the latest long panel data span (1980-2016). We utilized panel long run econometric models (fully modified ordinary least square and dynamic ordinary least square) to explore the long-run estimates in full panel and country level. Moreover, the Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) causality test is applied to examine the short-run causalities among our considered variables. The empirical findings validate the EKC hypothesis; the long-run estimates point out that finance significantly enhances the environmental degradation (negatively in few cases). The short-run heterogeneous causality confirms the bi-directional causality between finance and environmental degradation. The empirical outcomes suggest that policymakers should consider the environmental degradation issue caused by financial development in the One Belt and One Road region.

Severe Thrombocytopenia after Zika Virus Infection, Guadeloupe, 2016.

PubMed

Boyer Chammard, Timothée; Schepers, Kinda; Breurec, Sébastien; Messiaen, Thierry; Destrem, Anne-Laure; Mahevas, Matthieu; Soulillou, Adrien; Janaud, Ludovic; Curlier, Elodie; Herrmann-Storck, Cécile; Hoen, Bruno

2017-04-01

Severe thrombocytopenia during or after the course of Zika virus infection has been rarely reported. We report 7 cases of severe thrombocytopenia and hemorrhagic signs and symptoms in Guadeloupe after infection with this virus. Clinical course and laboratory findings strongly suggest a causal link between Zika virus infection and immune-mediated thrombocytopenia.

Severe Thrombocytopenia after Zika Virus Infection, Guadeloupe, 2016

PubMed Central

Boyer Chammard, Timothée; Schepers, Kinda; Breurec, Sébastien; Messiaen, Thierry; Destrem, Anne-Laure; Mahevas, Matthieu; Soulillou, Adrien; Janaud, Ludovic; Curlier, Elodie; Herrmann-Storck, Cécile

2017-01-01

Severe thrombocytopenia during or after the course of Zika virus infection has been rarely reported. We report 7 cases of severe thrombocytopenia and hemorrhagic signs and symptoms in Guadeloupe after infection with this virus. Clinical course and laboratory findings strongly suggest a causal link between Zika virus infection and immune-mediated thrombocytopenia. PMID:27997330

Changes in Gene Expression Relating to Colony Collapse Disorder in honey bees, Apis mellifera

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Colony collapse disorder (CCD) is a mysterious disappearance of honey bees that has beset beekeepers in the United States since late in 2006. Pathogens and other environmental stresses, including pesticides, have been linked to CCD, but a causal relationship has not yet been demonstrated. The gut,...

Management and conservation of migratory landbirds overwintering in the neotropics

Treesearch

Daniel R. Petit; James F. Lynch; Richard L. Hutto; John G. Blake; Robert B. Waide

1993-01-01

Loss of tropical broadleaved forests and concurrent population declines of long-distance migratory birds in temperate breeding areas have been closely linked in both scientific and popular literature; however, little evidence of a causal association currently exists. We review the current land use situation in the neotropics, the projected outcome of deforestation...

Collaborating To Enhance Resilience in Rural At-Risk Students.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Finley, Mary K.

This paper links areas of research with implications for community prevention strategies aimed at high-risk children. Collaborative efforts to reduce the number of at-risk children in rural communities can be advanced by merging knowledge from the following areas: (1) the causal pathways leading to substance abuse and identification of risk…

Language Endangerment and the Violent Ethnic Conflict Link in Middle Belt Nigeria

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ioratim-Uba, Godwin Aondona

2009-01-01

This paper highlights the fact that language endangerment in some multilingual developing societies is causal to the violent ethnic conflicts in those societies. Endangered language identity groups shift to the dominant language groups. But, over time, a concatenation of factors and nuanced realisation of perceived marginalisation (showing overtly…

Assessing the Positive Influence of Music Activities in Community Development Programs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dillon, Steve

2006-01-01

This article describes a framework for assessing the positive influence of music activities in community development programs. It examines hybrid music, health and rich media approaches to creative case study with the purpose of developing more compelling evidence based advocacy that examines the claims of a causal link. This preliminary study…

Preparing Students for Future Learning with Teachable Agents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chin, Doris B.; Dohmen, Ilsa M.; Cheng, Britte H.; Oppezzo, Marily A.; Chase, Catherine C.; Schwartz, Daniel L.

2010-01-01

Over the past several years, the authors have been developing an instructional technology, called Teachable Agents (TA), which draws on the social metaphor of teaching to help students learn. Students teach a computer character, their "agent," by creating a concept map of nodes connected by qualitative causal links. The authors hypothesize that…

The Plasticity of Adolescent Cognitions: Data from a Novel Cognitive Bias Modification Training Task

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lau, Jennifer Y. F.; Molyneaux, Emma; Telman, Machteld D.; Belli, Stefano

2011-01-01

Many adult anxiety problems emerge in adolescence. Investigating how adolescent anxiety arises and abates is critical for understanding and preventing adult psychiatric problems. Drawing threat interpretations from ambiguous material is linked to adolescent anxiety but little research has clarified the causal nature of this relationship. Work in…

Reading-Related Causal Attributions for Success and Failure: Dynamic Links with Reading Skill

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Frijters, Jan C.; Tsujimoto, Kimberley C.; Boada, Richard; Gottwald, Stephanie; Hill, Dina; Jacobson, Lisa A.; Lovett, Maureen W.; Mahone, E. Mark; Willcutt, Erik G.; Wolf, Maryanne; Bosson-Heenan, Joan; Gruen, Jeffrey R.

2018-01-01

The present study investigated the relation among reading skills and attributions, naming speed, and phonological awareness across a wide range of reading skill. Participants were 1,105 school-age children and youths from two understudied populations: African Americans and Hispanic Americans. Individual assessments of children ranging in age from…

"A Complicated Tangle of Circumstances"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miller, Carole; Saxton, Juliana

2009-01-01

The post-modern curriculum, drawing on chaos and complexity theory, recognises the realities of a world in flux and posits that the teacher and the class are always teetering "in the midst" of chaos, "not linked by chains of causality but [by] layers of meaning, recursive dynamics, non-linear effects and chance" (Osberg 2008,…

Inhibitory Control in Siblings Discordant for Exposure to Maternal Smoking during Pregnancy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Micalizzi, Lauren; Marceau, Kristine; Brick, Leslie A.; Palmer, Rohan H.; Todorov, Alexandre A.; Heath, Andrew C.; Evans, Allison; Knopik, Valerie S.

2018-01-01

Maternal smoking during pregnancy (SDP) has been linked to poorer offspring executive function across development, but SDP does not occur independent of other familial risk factors. As such, poor and inconsistent control for potential confounds, notably shared familial (i.e., genetic and environmental) confounds, preclude concluding causal effects…

Examining Achievement Goals and Causal Attributions Together as Predictors of Academic Functioning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wolters, Christopher A.; Fan, Weihua; Daugherty, Stacy G.

2013-01-01

This study was designed to forge stronger theoretical and empirical links between achievement goal theory and attribution theory. High school students ("N" = 224) completed a self-report survey that assessed 3 types of achievement goals, 7 types of attributions, and self-efficacy. Results indicated that students' adoption of achievement…

The Disclosure-Intimacy Link in Computer-Mediated Communication: An Attributional Extension of the Hyperpersonal Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jiang, L. Crystal; Bazarova, Natalie N.; Hancock, Jeffrey T.

2011-01-01

The present research investigated whether the attribution process through which people explain self-disclosures differs in text-based computer-mediated interactions versus face to face, and whether differences in causal attributions account for the increased intimacy frequently observed in mediated communication. In the experiment participants…

Modeling Family Dynamics in Children with Fragile X Syndrome

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hall, Scott S.; Burns, David D.; Reiss, Allan L.

2007-01-01

Few studies have examined the impact of children with genetic disorders and their unaffected siblings on family functioning. In this study, the reciprocal causal links between problem behaviors and maternal distress were investigated in 150 families containing a child with fragile X syndrome (FXS) and an unaffected sibling. Both children's…

C-reactive protein and genetic variants and cognitive decline in old age: The PROSPER Study

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Plasma concentrations of C-reactive protein (CRP), a marker of chronic inflammation, have been associated with cognitive impairment in old age. However, it is unknown whether CRP is causally linked to cognitive decline. Within the Prospective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER) tri...

IQ and Crime: Dull Behavior and/or Misspecified Theory?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Van Brunschot, Erin Gibbs; Brannigan, Augustine

1995-01-01

In response to "The Bell Curve," notes that the effects of IQ on crime and delinquency are mediated by gender and age in a fashion that is not readily explained by a reduction to genetic differences. Discusses possible interrelationships among IQ, delinquency, and school performance, and suggests that the causal link between IQ and…