29 CFR 18.902 - Self-authentication.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

..., estimates, and reports. In actions involving injury, illness, disease, death, disability, or physical or... injury, illness, disease, death, disability or physical or mental impairment, doctor, hospital... including a summary of experience as an expert witness in litigation, when including the basic facts, data...

29 CFR 18.902 - Self-authentication.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

..., estimates, and reports. In actions involving injury, illness, disease, death, disability, or physical or... injury, illness, disease, death, disability or physical or mental impairment, doctor, hospital... including a summary of experience as an expert witness in litigation, when including the basic facts, data...

29 CFR 18.902 - Self-authentication.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

..., estimates, and reports. In actions involving injury, illness, disease, death, disability, or physical or... injury, illness, disease, death, disability or physical or mental impairment, doctor, hospital... including a summary of experience as an expert witness in litigation, when including the basic facts, data...

29 CFR 18.902 - Self-authentication.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

..., estimates, and reports. In actions involving injury, illness, disease, death, disability, or physical or... injury, illness, disease, death, disability or physical or mental impairment, doctor, hospital... including a summary of experience as an expert witness in litigation, when including the basic facts, data...

29 CFR 18.902 - Self-authentication.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

..., estimates, and reports. In actions involving injury, illness, disease, death, disability, or physical or... injury, illness, disease, death, disability or physical or mental impairment, doctor, hospital... including a summary of experience as an expert witness in litigation, when including the basic facts, data...

Serum uric acid to creatinine ratio: A predictor of incident chronic kidney disease in type 2 diabetes mellitus patients with preserved kidney function.

PubMed

Gu, Liubao; Huang, Liji; Wu, Haidi; Lou, Qinglin; Bian, Rongwen

2017-05-01

Serum uric acid has shown to be a predictor of renal disease progression in most but not all studies. This study aims to test whether renal function-normalized serum uric acid is superior to serum uric acid as the predictor of incident chronic kidney disease in type 2 diabetes mellitus patients. In this study, 1339 type 2 diabetes mellitus patients with estimated glomerular filtration rate ⩾60 mL/min/1.73 m 2 and normouricemia were included. Renal function-normalized serum uric acid was calculated using serum uric acid/creatinine. Cox regression analysis was used to estimate the association between serum uric acid, renal function-normalized serum uric acid and incident chronic kidney disease. In total, 74 (5.53%) patients developed to chronic kidney disease 3 or greater during a median follow-up of 4 years, with older ages, longer diabetes duration and lower estimated glomerular filtration rate at baseline. The decline rate of estimated glomerular filtration rate was positively correlated with serum uric acid/creatinine ( r = 0.219, p < 0.001), but not serum uric acid ( r = 0.005, p = 0.858). Moreover, multivariate analysis revealed that serum uric acid was not an independent risk factor for incident chronic kidney disease ( p = 0.055), whereas serum uric acid to creatinine ratio was significantly associated with incident chronic kidney disease independently of potential confounders including baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate. serum uric acid to creatinine ratio might be a better predictor of incident chronic kidney disease in type 2 diabetes mellitus patients.

Global, Regional, and National Burden of Rheumatic Heart Disease, 1990-2015.

PubMed

Watkins, David A; Johnson, Catherine O; Colquhoun, Samantha M; Karthikeyan, Ganesan; Beaton, Andrea; Bukhman, Gene; Forouzanfar, Mohammed H; Longenecker, Christopher T; Mayosi, Bongani M; Mensah, George A; Nascimento, Bruno R; Ribeiro, Antonio L P; Sable, Craig A; Steer, Andrew C; Naghavi, Mohsen; Mokdad, Ali H; Murray, Christopher J L; Vos, Theo; Carapetis, Jonathan R; Roth, Gregory A

2017-08-24

Rheumatic heart disease remains an important preventable cause of cardiovascular death and disability, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries. We estimated global, regional, and national trends in the prevalence of and mortality due to rheumatic heart disease as part of the 2015 Global Burden of Disease study. We systematically reviewed data on fatal and nonfatal rheumatic heart disease for the period from 1990 through 2015. Two Global Burden of Disease analytic tools, the Cause of Death Ensemble model and DisMod-MR 2.1, were used to produce estimates of mortality and prevalence, including estimates of uncertainty. We estimated that there were 319,400 (95% uncertainty interval, 297,300 to 337,300) deaths due to rheumatic heart disease in 2015. Global age-standardized mortality due to rheumatic heart disease decreased by 47.8% (95% uncertainty interval, 44.7 to 50.9) from 1990 to 2015, but large differences were observed across regions. In 2015, the highest age-standardized mortality due to and prevalence of rheumatic heart disease were observed in Oceania, South Asia, and central sub-Saharan Africa. We estimated that in 2015 there were 33.4 million (95% uncertainty interval, 29.7 million to 43.1 million) cases of rheumatic heart disease and 10.5 million (95% uncertainty interval, 9.6 million to 11.5 million) disability-adjusted life-years due to rheumatic heart disease globally. We estimated the global disease prevalence of and mortality due to rheumatic heart disease over a 25-year period. The health-related burden of rheumatic heart disease has declined worldwide, but high rates of disease persist in some of the poorest regions in the world. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the Medtronic Foundation.).

A Review of the Relationship between Tooth Loss, Periodontal Disease, and Cancer

PubMed Central

Meyer, Mara S.; Joshipura, Kaumudi; Giovannucci, Edward; Michaud, Dominique S.

2009-01-01

Recent studies have investigated the association between periodontal disease, tooth loss, and several systemic diseases including cancer, cardiovascular disease, and preterm birth. Periodontal disease, a chronic inflammatory condition, is highly prevalent in adult populations around the world, and may be preventable. Estimates of prevalence vary between races and geographic regions, with a marked increase in the occurrence of periodontal disease with advancing age. Worldwide estimates for the prevalence of severe periodontal disease generally range from 10 to 15 percent. The relationship between oral health and cancer has been examined for a number of specific cancer sites. Several studies have reported associations between periodontal disease or tooth loss and risk of oral, upper gastrointestinal, lung, and pancreatic cancer in different populations. In a number of studies, these associations persisted after adjustment for major risk factors, including cigarette smoking and socioeconomic status. This review provides a summary of these findings, discusses possible biological mechanisms involved, and raises methodological issues related to studying these relationships. PMID:18478344

A review of the relationship between tooth loss, periodontal disease, and cancer.

PubMed

Meyer, Mara S; Joshipura, Kaumudi; Giovannucci, Edward; Michaud, Dominique S

2008-11-01

Recent studies have investigated the association between periodontal disease, tooth loss, and several systemic diseases including cancer, cardiovascular disease, and preterm birth. Periodontal disease, a chronic inflammatory condition, is highly prevalent in adult populations around the world, and may be preventable. Estimates of prevalence vary between races and geographic regions, with a marked increase in the occurrence of periodontal disease with advancing age. Worldwide estimates for the prevalence of severe periodontal disease generally range from 10 to 15%. The relationship between oral health and cancer has been examined for a number of specific cancer sites. Several studies have reported associations between periodontal disease or tooth loss and risk of oral, upper gastrointestinal, lung, and pancreatic cancer in different populations. In a number of studies, these associations persisted after adjustment for major risk factors, including cigarette smoking and socioeconomic status. This review provides a summary of these findings, discusses possible biological mechanisms involved, and raises methodological issues related to studying these relationships.

The Financial Impact of Advanced Kidney Disease on Canada Pension Plan and Private Disability Insurance Costs

PubMed Central

Manns, Braden; McKenzie, Susan Q.; Au, Flora; Gignac, Pamela M.; Geller, Lawrence Ian

2017-01-01

Background: Many working-age individuals with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) are unable to work, or are only able to work at a reduced capacity and/or with a reduction in time at work, and receive disability payments, either from the Canadian government or from private insurers, but the magnitude of those payments is unknown. Objective: The objective of this study was to estimate Canada Pension Plan Disability Benefit and private disability insurance benefits paid to Canadians with advanced kidney failure, and how feasible improvements in prevention, identification, and early treatment of CKD and increased use of kidney transplantation might mitigate those costs. Design: This study used an analytical model combining Canadian data from various sources. Setting and Patients: This study included all patients with advanced CKD in Canada, including those with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <30 mL/min/m2 and those on dialysis. Measurements: We combined disability estimates from a provincial kidney care program with the prevalence of advanced CKD and estimated disability payments from the Canada Pension Plan and private insurance plans to estimate overall disability benefit payments for Canadians with advanced CKD. Results: We estimate that Canadians with advanced kidney failure are receiving disability benefit payments of at least Can$217 million annually. These estimates are sensitive to the proportion of individuals with advanced kidney disease who are unable to work, and plausible variation in this estimate could mean patients with advanced kidney disease are receiving up to Can$260 million per year. Feasible strategies to reduce the proportion of individuals with advanced kidney disease, either through prevention, delay or reduction in severity, or increasing the rate of transplantation, could result in reductions in the cost of Canada Pension Plan and private disability insurance payments by Can$13.8 million per year within 5 years. Limitations: This study does not estimate how CKD prevention or increasing the rate of kidney transplantation might influence health care cost savings more broadly, and does not include the cost to provincial governments for programs that provide income for individuals without private insurance and who do not qualify for Canada Pension Plan disability payments. Conclusions: Private disability insurance providers and federal government programs incur high costs related to individuals with advanced kidney failure, highlighting the significance of kidney disease not only to patients, and their families, but also to these other important stakeholders. Improvements in care of individuals with kidney disease could reduce these costs. PMID:28491340

The Financial Impact of Advanced Kidney Disease on Canada Pension Plan and Private Disability Insurance Costs.

PubMed

Manns, Braden; McKenzie, Susan Q; Au, Flora; Gignac, Pamela M; Geller, Lawrence Ian

2017-01-01

Many working-age individuals with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) are unable to work, or are only able to work at a reduced capacity and/or with a reduction in time at work, and receive disability payments, either from the Canadian government or from private insurers, but the magnitude of those payments is unknown. The objective of this study was to estimate Canada Pension Plan Disability Benefit and private disability insurance benefits paid to Canadians with advanced kidney failure, and how feasible improvements in prevention, identification, and early treatment of CKD and increased use of kidney transplantation might mitigate those costs. This study used an analytical model combining Canadian data from various sources. This study included all patients with advanced CKD in Canada, including those with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <30 mL/min/m 2 and those on dialysis. We combined disability estimates from a provincial kidney care program with the prevalence of advanced CKD and estimated disability payments from the Canada Pension Plan and private insurance plans to estimate overall disability benefit payments for Canadians with advanced CKD. We estimate that Canadians with advanced kidney failure are receiving disability benefit payments of at least Can$217 million annually. These estimates are sensitive to the proportion of individuals with advanced kidney disease who are unable to work, and plausible variation in this estimate could mean patients with advanced kidney disease are receiving up to Can$260 million per year. Feasible strategies to reduce the proportion of individuals with advanced kidney disease, either through prevention, delay or reduction in severity, or increasing the rate of transplantation, could result in reductions in the cost of Canada Pension Plan and private disability insurance payments by Can$13.8 million per year within 5 years. This study does not estimate how CKD prevention or increasing the rate of kidney transplantation might influence health care cost savings more broadly, and does not include the cost to provincial governments for programs that provide income for individuals without private insurance and who do not qualify for Canada Pension Plan disability payments. Private disability insurance providers and federal government programs incur high costs related to individuals with advanced kidney failure, highlighting the significance of kidney disease not only to patients, and their families, but also to these other important stakeholders. Improvements in care of individuals with kidney disease could reduce these costs.

Productivity losses attributable to untreated chlamydial infection and associated pelvic inflammatory disease in reproductive-aged women.

PubMed

Blandford, John M; Gift, Thomas L

2006-10-01

The productivity losses attributable to disease-related morbidity and mortality impose a burden on society in general and on employers in particular. A reliable assessment of the productivity losses associated with untreated infection with Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct) would complement earlier work on direct medical costs and contribute to an estimate of the full cost of chlamydial disease. The goal of this study was to estimate the discounted lifetime productivity losses attributable to untreated chlamydial infection in reproductive-aged women. We developed a cost model using Monte Carlo methods to estimate the lifetime discounted productivity losses attributable to untreated lower genital tract Ct infection among reproductive-aged women. The model considered the impact of disability resulting from acute pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) associated with untreated Ct infection and from the sequelae of acute PID, including chronic pelvic pain, ectopic pregnancy, and infertility. To accommodate disparate Ct infection rates and labor market characteristics across age groups, we matched age-based risk factors for Ct infection with labor market patterns. Data sources included the 2001 National Chlamydia Surveillance Data, the 2001 Current Population Survey, and published literature. Estimates indicate that the mean weighted productivity losses per untreated Ct infection were approximately US dollars 130 (in year 2001 dollars). Mean weighted productivity losses per case of acute PID were estimated at US dollars 649. Estimated productivity losses were highly correlated with age, reflecting age-dependent differences in labor market characteristics. The productivity losses attributable to untreated infection with Ct and to sequelae of this infection form a substantial portion of the total economic burden of disease. Effective programs to prevent chlamydial infection and effective screening, diagnosis, and treatment of Ct-infected women may reduce productivity losses and substantially lessen the economic burden of disease to employers.

[Determination of the numbers of monitoring medical institutions necessary for estimating incidence rates in the surveillance of infectious diseases in Japan].

PubMed

Hashimoto, S; Murakami, Y; Taniguchi, K; Nagai, M

1999-12-01

Our purpose was to determine the number of monitoring stations (medical institutions) necessary for estimating incidence rates in the surveillance system of infectious diseases in Japan. Infectious diseases were selected by the type of monitoring stations: 15 diseases in pediatrics stations, influenza in influenza stations, 3 diseases in ophthalmology stations and 5 diseases in the stations of sexually transmitted diseases (STD). For each type of monitoring station, 5 cases of the number of monitoring stations in each health center, including the number determined from presently established standards and the actual number in 1997, were given. It was assumed that monitoring stations were randomly selected among medical institutions in health centers. For each infectious disease, each case and each type of monitoring station, standard error rates of estimated numbers of incidence cases in the whole country were calculated in 1993-1997 using the data of the surveillance of infectious diseases. Among 5 cases of monitoring stations, the case satisfied the condition that those standard error rates were lower than the critical values, was selected. The critical values were 5% in pediatrics and influenza stations, and 10% in ophthalmology and STD stations. The numbers of monitoring stations in the selected cases were 3,000 in pediatrics stations, 5,000 in influenza stations (including all pediatrics stations), 605 in ophthalmology stations and 900 in STD stations.

A Bayesian approach to assess heart disease mortality among persons with diabetes in the presence of missing data.

PubMed

Cadwell, Betsy L; Boyle, James P; Tierney, Edward F; Thompson, Theodore J

2007-09-01

Some states' death certificate form includes a diabetes yes/no check box that enables policy makers to investigate the change in heart disease mortality rates by diabetes status. Because the check boxes are sometimes unmarked, a method accounting for missing data is needed when estimating heart disease mortality rates by diabetes status. Using North Dakota's data (1992-2003), we generate the posterior distribution of diabetes status to estimate diabetes status among those with heart disease and an unmarked check box using Monte Carlo methods. Combining this estimate with the number of death certificates with known diabetes status provides a numerator for heart disease mortality rates. Denominators for rates were estimated from the North Dakota Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. Accounting for missing data, age-adjusted heart disease mortality rates (per 1,000) among women with diabetes were 8.6 during 1992-1998 and 6.7 during 1999-2003. Among men with diabetes, rates were 13.0 during 1992-1998 and 10.0 during 1999-2003. The Bayesian approach accounted for the uncertainty due to missing diabetes status as well as the uncertainty in estimating the populations with diabetes.

Estimating long-term multivariate progression from short-term data.

PubMed

Donohue, Michael C; Jacqmin-Gadda, Hélène; Le Goff, Mélanie; Thomas, Ronald G; Raman, Rema; Gamst, Anthony C; Beckett, Laurel A; Jack, Clifford R; Weiner, Michael W; Dartigues, Jean-François; Aisen, Paul S

2014-10-01

Diseases that progress slowly are often studied by observing cohorts at different stages of disease for short periods of time. The Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) follows elders with various degrees of cognitive impairment, from normal to impaired. The study includes a rich panel of novel cognitive tests, biomarkers, and brain images collected every 6 months for as long as 6 years. The relative timing of the observations with respect to disease pathology is unknown. We propose a general semiparametric model and iterative estimation procedure to estimate simultaneously the pathological timing and long-term growth curves. The resulting estimates of long-term progression are fine-tuned using cognitive trajectories derived from the long-term "Personnes Agées Quid" study. We demonstrate with simulations that the method can recover long-term disease trends from short-term observations. The method also estimates temporal ordering of individuals with respect to disease pathology, providing subject-specific prognostic estimates of the time until onset of symptoms. When the method is applied to ADNI data, the estimated growth curves are in general agreement with prevailing theories of the Alzheimer's disease cascade. Other data sets with common outcome measures can be combined using the proposed algorithm. Software to fit the model and reproduce results with the statistical software R is available as the grace package. ADNI data can be downloaded from the Laboratory of NeuroImaging. Copyright © 2014 The Alzheimer's Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration versus Modification of Diet in Renal Disease equations for renal function evaluation in patients undergoing partial nephrectomy.

PubMed

Shikanov, Sergey; Clark, Melanie A; Raman, Jay D; Smith, Benjamin; Kaag, Matthew; Russo, Paul; Wheat, Jeffrey C; Wolf, J Stuart; Huang, William C; Shalhav, Arieh L; Eggener, Scott E

2010-11-01

A novel equation, the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration, has been proposed to replace the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease for estimated glomerular filtration rate due to higher accuracy, particularly in the setting of normal renal function. We compared these equations in patients with 2 functioning kidneys undergoing partial nephrectomy. We assembled a cohort of 1,158 patients from 5 institutions who underwent partial nephrectomy between 1991 and 2009. Only subjects with 2 functioning kidneys were included in the study. The end points were baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate, last followup estimated glomerular filtration rate (3 to 18 months), absolute and percent change estimated glomerular filtration rate ([absolute change/baseline] × 100%), and proportion of newly developed chronic kidney disease stage III. The agreement between the equations was evaluated using Bland-Altman plots and the McNemar test for paired observations. Mean baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate derived from the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease and Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equations were 73 and 77 ml/minute/1.73 m(2), respectively, and following surgery were 63 and 67 ml/minute/1.73 m(2), respectively. Mean percent change estimated glomerular filtration rate was -12% for both equations (p = 0.2). The proportion of patients with newly developed chronic kidney disease stage III following surgery was 32% and 25%, according to the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease and Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equations, respectively (p = 0.001). For patients with 2 functioning kidneys undergoing partial nephrectomy the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation provides slightly higher glomerular filtration rate estimates compared to the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease equation, with 7% fewer patients categorized as having chronic kidney disease stage III or worse. Copyright © 2010 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The monetary burden of cystic echinococcosis in Iran.

PubMed

Fasihi Harandi, Majid; Budke, Christine M; Rostami, Sima

2012-01-01

Cystic echinococcosis (CE) is a globally distributed parasitic infection of humans and livestock. The disease is of significant medical and economic importance in many developing countries, including Iran. However, the socioeconomic impact of the disease, in most endemic countries, is not fully understood. The purpose of the present study was to determine the monetary burden of CE in Iran. Epidemiological data, including prevalence and incidence of CE in humans and animals, were obtained from regional hospitals, the scientific literature, and official government reports. Economic data relating to human and animal disease, including cost of treatment, productivity losses, and livestock production losses were obtained from official national and international datasets. Monte Carlo simulation methods were used to represent uncertainty in input parameters. Mean number of surgical CE cases per year for 2000-2009 was estimated at 1,295. The number of asymptomatic individuals living in the country was estimated at 635,232 (95% Credible Interval, CI 149,466-1,120,998). The overall annual cost of CE in Iran was estimated at US$232.3 million (95% CI US$103.1-397.8 million), including both direct and indirect costs. The cost associated with human CE was estimated at US$93.39 million (95% CI US$6.1-222.7 million) and the annual cost associated with CE in livestock was estimated at US$132 million (95% CI US$61.8-246.5 million). The cost per surgical human case was estimated at US$1,539. CE has a considerable economic impact on Iran, with the cost of the disease approximated at 0.03% of the country's gross domestic product. Establishment of a CE surveillance system and implementation of a control program are necessary to reduce the economic burden of CE on the country. Cost-benefit analysis of different control programs is recommended, incorporating present knowledge of the economic losses due to CE in Iran.

The Monetary Burden of Cystic Echinococcosis in Iran

PubMed Central

Fasihi Harandi, Majid; Budke, Christine M.; Rostami, Sima

2012-01-01

Cystic echinococcosis (CE) is a globally distributed parasitic infection of humans and livestock. The disease is of significant medical and economic importance in many developing countries, including Iran. However, the socioeconomic impact of the disease, in most endemic countries, is not fully understood. The purpose of the present study was to determine the monetary burden of CE in Iran. Epidemiological data, including prevalence and incidence of CE in humans and animals, were obtained from regional hospitals, the scientific literature, and official government reports. Economic data relating to human and animal disease, including cost of treatment, productivity losses, and livestock production losses were obtained from official national and international datasets. Monte Carlo simulation methods were used to represent uncertainty in input parameters. Mean number of surgical CE cases per year for 2000–2009 was estimated at 1,295. The number of asymptomatic individuals living in the country was estimated at 635,232 (95% Credible Interval, CI 149,466–1,120,998). The overall annual cost of CE in Iran was estimated at US$232.3 million (95% CI US$103.1–397.8 million), including both direct and indirect costs. The cost associated with human CE was estimated at US$93.39 million (95% CI US$6.1–222.7 million) and the annual cost associated with CE in livestock was estimated at US$132 million (95% CI US$61.8–246.5 million). The cost per surgical human case was estimated at US$1,539. CE has a considerable economic impact on Iran, with the cost of the disease approximated at 0.03% of the country's gross domestic product. Establishment of a CE surveillance system and implementation of a control program are necessary to reduce the economic burden of CE on the country. Cost-benefit analysis of different control programs is recommended, incorporating present knowledge of the economic losses due to CE in Iran. PMID:23209857

Disease spread models to estimate highly uncertain emerging diseases losses for animal agriculture insurance policies: an application to the U.S. farm-raised catfish industry.

PubMed

Zagmutt, Francisco J; Sempier, Stephen H; Hanson, Terril R

2013-10-01

Emerging diseases (ED) can have devastating effects on agriculture. Consequently, agricultural insurance for ED can develop if basic insurability criteria are met, including the capability to estimate the severity of ED outbreaks with associated uncertainty. The U.S. farm-raised channel catfish (Ictalurus punctatus) industry was used to evaluate the feasibility of using a disease spread simulation modeling framework to estimate the potential losses from new ED for agricultural insurance purposes. Two stochastic models were used to simulate the spread of ED between and within channel catfish ponds in Mississippi (MS) under high, medium, and low disease impact scenarios. The mean (95% prediction interval (PI)) proportion of ponds infected within disease-impacted farms was 7.6% (3.8%, 22.8%), 24.5% (3.8%, 72.0%), and 45.6% (4.0%, 92.3%), and the mean (95% PI) proportion of fish mortalities in ponds affected by the disease was 9.8% (1.4%, 26.7%), 49.2% (4.7%, 60.7%), and 88.3% (85.9%, 90.5%) for the low, medium, and high impact scenarios, respectively. The farm-level mortality losses from an ED were up to 40.3% of the total farm inventory and can be used for insurance premium rate development. Disease spread modeling provides a systematic way to organize the current knowledge on the ED perils and, ultimately, use this information to help develop actuarially sound agricultural insurance policies and premiums. However, the estimates obtained will include a large amount of uncertainty driven by the stochastic nature of disease outbreaks, by the uncertainty in the frequency of future ED occurrences, and by the often sparse data available from past outbreaks. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Constraints to cattle production in a semiarid pastoral system in Kenya.

PubMed

Onono, Joshua Orungo; Wieland, Barbara; Rushton, Jonathan

2013-08-01

Livestock keeping is the mainstay for the pastoral community while also providing social and cultural value. This study ranked main production constraints and cattle diseases that impacted livelihood and estimated herd prevalence, incidence rate, and impact of diseases on production parameters in a semiarid pastoral district of Narok in Kenya. Data collection employed participatory techniques including listing, pairwise ranking, disease incidence scoring, proportional piling, and disease impact matrix scoring and this was disaggregated by gender. Production constraints with high scores for impact on livelihood included scarcity of water (19%), lack of extension services (15%), presence of diseases (12%), lack of market for cattle and their products (10%), and recurrent cycle of drought (9%). Diseases with high scores for impact on livelihood were East Coast fever (ECF) (22%) and foot and mouth disease (FMD) (21%). High estimated incidence rates were reported for FMD (67%), trypanosomosis (28%), and ECF (15%), while contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) had an incidence rate <1%. Milk yield was affected by FMD, ECF, and trypanosomosis, while ECF was the cause of increased mortality. FMD, ECF, CBPP, and brucellosis caused increased abortion, while effect of gender and location of study was not significant. Despite CBPP being regarded as an important disease affecting cattle production in sub-Sahara Africa, its estimated incidence rate in herds was low. This study indicates what issues should be prioritized by livestock policy for pastoral areas.

World Health Organization Estimates of the Global and Regional Disease Burden of 11 Foodborne Parasitic Diseases, 2010: A Data Synthesis.

PubMed

Torgerson, Paul R; Devleesschauwer, Brecht; Praet, Nicolas; Speybroeck, Niko; Willingham, Arve Lee; Kasuga, Fumiko; Rokni, Mohammad B; Zhou, Xiao-Nong; Fèvre, Eric M; Sripa, Banchob; Gargouri, Neyla; Fürst, Thomas; Budke, Christine M; Carabin, Hélène; Kirk, Martyn D; Angulo, Frederick J; Havelaar, Arie; de Silva, Nilanthi

2015-12-01

Foodborne diseases are globally important, resulting in considerable morbidity and mortality. Parasitic diseases often result in high burdens of disease in low and middle income countries and are frequently transmitted to humans via contaminated food. This study presents the first estimates of the global and regional human disease burden of 10 helminth diseases and toxoplasmosis that may be attributed to contaminated food. Data were abstracted from 16 systematic reviews or similar studies published between 2010 and 2015; from 5 disease data bases accessed in 2015; and from 79 reports, 73 of which have been published since 2000, 4 published between 1995 and 2000 and 2 published in 1986 and 1981. These included reports from national surveillance systems, journal articles, and national estimates of foodborne diseases. These data were used to estimate the number of infections, sequelae, deaths, and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), by age and region for 2010. These parasitic diseases, resulted in 48.4 million cases (95% Uncertainty intervals [UI] of 43.4-79.0 million) and 59,724 (95% UI 48,017-83,616) deaths annually resulting in 8.78 million (95% UI 7.62-12.51 million) DALYs. We estimated that 48% (95% UI 38%-56%) of cases of these parasitic diseases were foodborne, resulting in 76% (95% UI 65%-81%) of the DALYs attributable to these diseases. Overall, foodborne parasitic disease, excluding enteric protozoa, caused an estimated 23.2 million (95% UI 18.2-38.1 million) cases and 45,927 (95% UI 34,763-59,933) deaths annually resulting in an estimated 6.64 million (95% UI 5.61-8.41 million) DALYs. Foodborne Ascaris infection (12.3 million cases, 95% UI 8.29-22.0 million) and foodborne toxoplasmosis (10.3 million cases, 95% UI 7.40-14.9 million) were the most common foodborne parasitic diseases. Human cysticercosis with 2.78 million DALYs (95% UI 2.14-3.61 million), foodborne trematodosis with 2.02 million DALYs (95% UI 1.65-2.48 million) and foodborne toxoplasmosis with 825,000 DALYs (95% UI 561,000-1.26 million) resulted in the highest burdens in terms of DALYs, mainly due to years lived with disability. Foodborne enteric protozoa, reported elsewhere, resulted in an additional 67.2 million illnesses or 492,000 DALYs. Major limitations of our study include often substantial data gaps that had to be filled by imputation and suffer from the uncertainties that surround such models. Due to resource limitations it was also not possible to consider all potentially foodborne parasites (for example Trypanosoma cruzi). Parasites are frequently transmitted to humans through contaminated food. These estimates represent an important step forward in understanding the impact of foodborne diseases globally and regionally. The disease burden due to most foodborne parasites is highly focal and results in significant morbidity and mortality among vulnerable populations.

Estimates of the Burden of Group B Streptococcal Disease Worldwide for Pregnant Women, Stillbirths, and Children

PubMed Central

Seale, Anna C; Bianchi-Jassir, Fiorella; Russell, Neal J; Kohli-Lynch, Maya; Tann, Cally J; Hall, Jenny; Madrid, Lola; Blencowe, Hannah; Cousens, Simon; Baker, Carol J; Bartlett, Linda; Cutland, Clare; Gravett, Michael G; Heath, Paul T; Ip, Margaret; Le Doare, Kirsty; Madhi, Shabir A; Rubens, Craig E; Saha, Samir K; Schrag, Stephanie J; Sobanjo-ter Meulen, Ajoke; Vekemans, Johan; Lawn, Joy E

2017-01-01

Abstract Background We aimed to provide the first comprehensive estimates of the burden of group B Streptococcus (GBS), including invasive disease in pregnant and postpartum women, fetal infection/stillbirth, and infants. Intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis is the current mainstay of prevention, reducing early-onset infant disease in high-income contexts. Maternal GBS vaccines are in development. Methods For 2015 live births, we used a compartmental model to estimate (1) exposure to maternal GBS colonization, (2) cases of infant invasive GBS disease, (3) deaths, and (4) disabilities. We applied incidence or prevalence data to estimate cases of maternal and fetal infection/stillbirth, and infants with invasive GBS disease presenting with neonatal encephalopathy. We applied risk ratios to estimate numbers of preterm births attributable to GBS. Uncertainty was also estimated. Results Worldwide in 2015, we estimated 205000 (uncertainty range [UR], 101000–327000) infants with early-onset disease and 114000 (UR, 44000–326000) with late-onset disease, of whom a minimum of 7000 (UR, 0–19000) presented with neonatal encephalopathy. There were 90000 (UR, 36000–169000) deaths in infants <3 months age, and, at least 10000 (UR, 3000–27000) children with disability each year. There were 33000 (UR, 13000–52000) cases of invasive GBS disease in pregnant or postpartum women, and 57000 (UR, 12000–104000) fetal infections/stillbirths. Up to 3.5 million preterm births may be attributable to GBS. Africa accounted for 54% of estimated cases and 65% of all fetal/infant deaths. A maternal vaccine with 80% efficacy and 90% coverage could prevent 107000 (UR, 20000–198000) stillbirths and infant deaths. Conclusions Our conservative estimates suggest that GBS is a leading contributor to adverse maternal and newborn outcomes, with at least 409000 (UR, 144000–573000) maternal/fetal/infant cases and 147000 (UR, 47000–273000) stillbirths and infant deaths annually. An effective GBS vaccine could reduce disease in the mother, the fetus, and the infant. PMID:29117332

Causes of death in Vanuatu.

PubMed

Carter, Karen; Tovu, Viran; Langati, Jeffrey Tila; Buttsworth, Michael; Dingley, Lester; Calo, Andy; Harrison, Griffith; Rao, Chalapati; Lopez, Alan D; Taylor, Richard

2016-01-01

The population of the Pacific Melanesian country of Vanuatu was 234,000 at the 2009 census. Apart from subsistence activities, economic activity includes tourism and agriculture. Current completeness of vital registration is considered too low to be usable for national statistics; mortality and life expectancy (LE) are derived from indirect demographic estimates from censuses/surveys. Some cause of death (CoD) data are available to provide information on major causes of premature death. Deaths 2001-2007 were coded for cause (ICDv10) for ages 0-59 years from: hospital separations (HS) (n = 636), hospital medical certificates (MC) of death (n = 1,169), and monthly reports from community health facilities (CHF) (n = 1,212). Ill-defined causes were 3 % for hospital deaths and 20 % from CHF. Proportional mortality was calculated by cause (excluding ill-defined) and age group (0-4, 5-14 years), and also by sex for 15-59 years. From total deaths by broad age group and sex from 1999 and 2009 census analyses, community deaths were estimated by deduction of hospital deaths MC. National proportional mortality by cause was estimated by a weighted average of MC and CHF deaths. National estimates indicate main causes of deaths <5 years were: perinatal disorders (45 %) and malaria, diarrhea, and pneumonia (27 %). For 15-59 years, main causes of male deaths were: circulatory disease 27 %, neoplasms 13 %, injury 13 %, liver disease 10 %, infection 10 %, diabetes 7 %, and chronic respiratory disease 7 %; and for females: neoplasms 29 %, circulatory disease 15 %, diabetes 10 %, infection 9 %, and maternal deaths 8 %. Infection included tuberculosis, malaria, and viral hepatitis. Liver disease (including hepatitis and cancer) accounted for 18 % of deaths in adult males and 9 % in females. Non-communicable disease (NCD), including circulatory disease, diabetes, neoplasm, and chronic respiratory disease, accounted for 52 % of premature deaths in adult males and 60 % in females. Injuries accounted for 13 % in adult males and 6 % in females. Maternal deaths translate into an annual maternal mortality ratio of 130/100,000 for the period. Vanuatu manifests a double burden of disease with significant proportional mortality from perinatal disorders and infection/pneumonia <5 years and maternal mortality, coupled with significant proportional mortality in adults (15-59 years) from cardiovascular disease (CVD), neoplasms, and diabetes.

Intellectual Enrichment Is Linked to Cerebral Efficiency in Multiple Sclerosis: Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging Evidence for Cognitive Reserve

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sumowski, James F.; Wylie, Glenn R.; DeLuca, John; Chiaravalloti, Nancy

2010-01-01

The cognitive reserve hypothesis helps to explain the incomplete relationship between brain disease and cognitive status in people with neurologic diseases, including Alzheimer's; disease and multiple sclerosis. Lifetime intellectual enrichment (estimated with education or vocabulary knowledge) lessens the negative impact of brain disease on…

A comparison of different category scales for estimating disease severity

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Plant pathologists most often obtain quantitative information on disease severity using visual assessments. Category scales are widely used for assessing disease severity, including for screening germplasm. The most widely used category scale is the Horsfall-Barratt (H-B) scale, but reports show tha...

Estimation of Direct Melanoma-related Costs by Disease Stage and by Phase of Diagnosis and Treatment According to Clinical Guidelines.

PubMed

Buja, Alessandra; Sartor, Gino; Scioni, Manuela; Vecchiato, Antonella; Bolzan, Mario; Rebba, Vincenzo; Sileni, Vanna Chiarion; Palozzo, Angelo Claudio; Montesco, Maria; Del Fiore, Paolo; Baldo, Vincenzo; Rossi, Carlo Riccardo

2018-02-07

Cutaneous melanoma is a major concern in terms of healthcare systems and economics. The aim of this study was to estimate the direct costs of melanoma by disease stage, phase of diagnosis, and treatment according to the pre-set clinical guidelines drafted by the AIOM (Italian Medical Oncological Association). Based on the AIOM guidelines for malignant cutaneous melanoma, a highly detailed decision-making model was developed describing the patient's pathway from diagnosis through the subsequent phases of disease staging, surgical and medical treatment, and follow-up. The model associates each phase potentially involving medical procedures with a likelihood measure and a cost, thus enabling an estimation of the expected costs by disease stage and clinical phase of melanoma diagnosis and treatment according to the clinical guidelines. The mean per-patient cost of the whole melanoma pathway (including one year of follow-up) ranged from €149 for stage 0 disease to €66,950 for stage IV disease. The costs relating to each phase of the disease's diagnosis and treatment depended on disease stage. It is essential to calculate the direct costs of managing malignant cutaneous melanoma according to clinical guidelines in order to estimate the economic burden of this disease and to enable policy-makers to allocate appropriate resources.

[The cost of tobacco-related diseases for Brazil's Unified National Health System].

PubMed

Pinto, Márcia; Ugá, Maria Alicia Domínguez

2010-06-01

This study aimed to identify the direct costs of hospitalizations due to three smoking-related groups of diseases - cancer and circulatory and respiratory diseases - in Brazil's Unified National Health System (SUS) in 2005. For cancer, the cost of chemotherapy was also included. The study derived cost estimates using administrative databases, relative risks, smoking prevalence, and smoking-attributable fraction. According to the estimates, smoking- attributable medical expenditures for the three disease groups amounted to R$338,692,516.02 (approximately U$185 million), accounting for 27.6% of total medical expenditures. Considering all hospitalizations and chemotherapy provided by the National Health System, tobacco-related diseases accounted for 7.7% of total medical expenditures. These costs also represented 0.9% of expenditures by federally funded public health services. This study provides a conservative estimate of smoking-related costs and suggests the need for continued research on comprehensive approaches to measure the total burden of smoking for society.

Prediction model to estimate presence of coronary artery disease: retrospective pooled analysis of existing cohorts

PubMed Central

Genders, Tessa S S; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Nieman, Koen; Galema, Tjebbe W; Mollet, Nico R; de Feyter, Pim J; Krestin, Gabriel P; Alkadhi, Hatem; Leschka, Sebastian; Desbiolles, Lotus; Meijs, Matthijs F L; Cramer, Maarten J; Knuuti, Juhani; Kajander, Sami; Bogaert, Jan; Goetschalckx, Kaatje; Cademartiri, Filippo; Maffei, Erica; Martini, Chiara; Seitun, Sara; Aldrovandi, Annachiara; Wildermuth, Simon; Stinn, Björn; Fornaro, Jürgen; Feuchtner, Gudrun; De Zordo, Tobias; Auer, Thomas; Plank, Fabian; Friedrich, Guy; Pugliese, Francesca; Petersen, Steffen E; Davies, L Ceri; Schoepf, U Joseph; Rowe, Garrett W; van Mieghem, Carlos A G; van Driessche, Luc; Sinitsyn, Valentin; Gopalan, Deepa; Nikolaou, Konstantin; Bamberg, Fabian; Cury, Ricardo C; Battle, Juan; Maurovich-Horvat, Pál; Bartykowszki, Andrea; Merkely, Bela; Becker, Dávid; Hadamitzky, Martin; Hausleiter, Jörg; Dewey, Marc; Zimmermann, Elke; Laule, Michael

2012-01-01

Objectives To develop prediction models that better estimate the pretest probability of coronary artery disease in low prevalence populations. Design Retrospective pooled analysis of individual patient data. Setting 18 hospitals in Europe and the United States. Participants Patients with stable chest pain without evidence for previous coronary artery disease, if they were referred for computed tomography (CT) based coronary angiography or catheter based coronary angiography (indicated as low and high prevalence settings, respectively). Main outcome measures Obstructive coronary artery disease (≥50% diameter stenosis in at least one vessel found on catheter based coronary angiography). Multiple imputation accounted for missing predictors and outcomes, exploiting strong correlation between the two angiography procedures. Predictive models included a basic model (age, sex, symptoms, and setting), clinical model (basic model factors and diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidaemia, and smoking), and extended model (clinical model factors and use of the CT based coronary calcium score). We assessed discrimination (c statistic), calibration, and continuous net reclassification improvement by cross validation for the four largest low prevalence datasets separately and the smaller remaining low prevalence datasets combined. Results We included 5677 patients (3283 men, 2394 women), of whom 1634 had obstructive coronary artery disease found on catheter based coronary angiography. All potential predictors were significantly associated with the presence of disease in univariable and multivariable analyses. The clinical model improved the prediction, compared with the basic model (cross validated c statistic improvement from 0.77 to 0.79, net reclassification improvement 35%); the coronary calcium score in the extended model was a major predictor (0.79 to 0.88, 102%). Calibration for low prevalence datasets was satisfactory. Conclusions Updated prediction models including age, sex, symptoms, and cardiovascular risk factors allow for accurate estimation of the pretest probability of coronary artery disease in low prevalence populations. Addition of coronary calcium scores to the prediction models improves the estimates. PMID:22692650

Burden of disease from toxic waste sites in India, Indonesia, and the Philippines in 2010.

PubMed

Chatham-Stephens, Kevin; Caravanos, Jack; Ericson, Bret; Sunga-Amparo, Jennifer; Susilorini, Budi; Sharma, Promila; Landrigan, Philip J; Fuller, Richard

2013-07-01

Prior calculations of the burden of disease from toxic exposures have not included estimates of the burden from toxic waste sites due to the absence of exposure data. We developed a disability-adjusted life year (DALY)-based estimate of the disease burden attributable to toxic waste sites. We focused on three low- and middle-income countries (LMICs): India, Indonesia, and the Philippines. Sites were identified through the Blacksmith Institute's Toxic Sites Identification Program, a global effort to identify waste sites in LMICs. At least one of eight toxic chemicals was sampled in environmental media at each site, and the population at risk estimated. By combining estimates of disease incidence from these exposures with population data, we calculated the DALYs attributable to exposures at each site. We estimated that in 2010, 8,629,750 persons were at risk of exposure to industrial pollutants at 373 toxic waste sites in the three countries, and that these exposures resulted in 828,722 DALYs, with a range of 814,934-1,557,121 DALYs, depending on the weighting factor used. This disease burden is comparable to estimated burdens for outdoor air pollution (1,448,612 DALYs) and malaria (725,000 DALYs) in these countries. Lead and hexavalent chromium collectively accounted for 99.2% of the total DALYs for the chemicals evaluated. Toxic waste sites are responsible for a significant burden of disease in LMICs. Although some factors, such as unidentified and unscreened sites, may cause our estimate to be an underestimate of the actual burden of disease, other factors, such as extrapolation of environmental sampling to the entire exposed population, may result in an overestimate of the burden of disease attributable to these sites. Toxic waste sites are a major, and heretofore underrecognized, global health problem.

Neglected Infections of Poverty in the United States of America

PubMed Central

Hotez, Peter J.

2008-01-01

In the United States, there is a largely hidden burden of diseases caused by a group of chronic and debilitating parasitic, bacterial, and congenital infections known as the neglected infections of poverty. Like their neglected tropical disease counterparts in developing countries, the neglected infections of poverty in the US disproportionately affect impoverished and under-represented minority populations. The major neglected infections include the helminth infections, toxocariasis, strongyloidiasis, ascariasis, and cysticercosis; the intestinal protozoan infection trichomoniasis; some zoonotic bacterial infections, including leptospirosis; the vector-borne infections Chagas disease, leishmaniasis, trench fever, and dengue fever; and the congenital infections cytomegalovirus (CMV), toxoplasmosis, and syphilis. These diseases occur predominantly in people of color living in the Mississippi Delta and elsewhere in the American South, in disadvantaged urban areas, and in the US–Mexico borderlands, as well as in certain immigrant populations and disadvantaged white populations living in Appalachia. Preliminary disease burden estimates of the neglected infections of poverty indicate that tens of thousands, or in some cases, hundreds of thousands of poor Americans harbor these chronic infections, which represent some of the greatest health disparities in the United States. Specific policy recommendations include active surveillance (including newborn screening) to ascertain accurate population-based estimates of disease burden; epidemiological studies to determine the extent of autochthonous transmission of Chagas disease and other infections; mass or targeted treatments; vector control; and research and development for new control tools including improved diagnostics and accelerated development of a vaccine to prevent congenital CMV infection and congenital toxoplasmosis. PMID:18575621

Assessing risks and preventing disease from environmental chemicals.

PubMed

Dunnette, D A

1989-01-01

In the last 25 years there has been considerable concern expressed about the extent to which chemical agents in the ambient and work environments are contributing to the causation of disease. This concern is a logical extension of our increased knowledge of the real and potential effects of environmental chemicals and the methodological difficulties in applying new knowledge that could help prevent environmentally induced disease. Chemical risk assessment offers an approach to estimating risks and involves consideration of relevant information including identification of chemical hazards, evaluation of the dose-response relationship, estimation of exposure and finally, risk characterization. Particularly significant uncertainties which are inherent in use of this and other risk models include animal-human and low dose-high dose extrapolation and estimation of exposure. Community public health risks from exposure to environmental chemicals appear to be small relative to other public health risks based on information related to cancer trends, dietary intake of synthetic chemicals, assessment data on substances such as DDT and "dioxin," public health effects of hazardous waste sites and contextual considerations. Because of inherent uncertainty in the chemical risk assessment process, however, we need to apply what methods are available in our efforts to prevent disease induced by environmental chemicals. There are a number of societal strategies which can contribute to overall reduction of risk from environmental chemicals. These include acquisition of information on environmental risk including toxicity, intensity and extensity of exposure, biological monitoring, disease surveillance, improvement in epidemiological methods, control of environmental chemical exposures, and dissemination of hazardous chemical information. Responsible environmental risk communication and information transfer appear to be among the most important of the available strategies for preventing disease induced by chemicals in the environment.

Economic and disease burden of dengue in Mexico.

PubMed

Undurraga, Eduardo A; Betancourt-Cravioto, Miguel; Ramos-Castañeda, José; Martínez-Vega, Ruth; Méndez-Galván, Jorge; Gubler, Duane J; Guzmán, María G; Halstead, Scott B; Harris, Eva; Kuri-Morales, Pablo; Tapia-Conyer, Roberto; Shepard, Donald S

2015-03-01

Dengue imposes a substantial economic and disease burden in most tropical and subtropical countries. Dengue incidence and severity have dramatically increased in Mexico during the past decades. Having objective and comparable estimates of the economic burden of dengue is essential to inform health policy, increase disease awareness, and assess the impact of dengue prevention and control technologies. We estimated the annual economic and disease burden of dengue in Mexico for the years 2010-2011. We merged multiple data sources, including a prospective cohort study; patient interviews and macro-costing from major hospitals; surveillance, budget, and health data from the Ministry of Health; WHO cost estimates; and available literature. We conducted a probabilistic sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulations to derive 95% certainty levels (CL) for our estimates. Results suggest that Mexico had about 139,000 (95%CL: 128,000-253,000) symptomatic and 119 (95%CL: 75-171) fatal dengue episodes annually on average (2010-2011), compared to an average of 30,941 symptomatic and 59 fatal dengue episodes reported. The annual cost, including surveillance and vector control, was US$170 (95%CL: 151-292) million, or $1.56 (95%CL: 1.38-2.68) per capita, comparable to other countries in the region. Of this, $87 (95%CL: 87-209) million or $0.80 per capita (95%CL: 0.62-1.12) corresponds to illness. Annual disease burden averaged 65 (95%CL: 36-99) disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) per million population. Inclusion of long-term sequelae, co-morbidities, impact on tourism, and health system disruption during outbreaks would further increase estimated economic and disease burden. With this study, Mexico joins Panama, Puerto Rico, Nicaragua, and Thailand as the only countries or areas worldwide with comprehensive (illness and preventive) empirical estimates of dengue burden. Burden varies annually; during an outbreak, dengue burden may be significantly higher than that of the pre-vaccine level of rotavirus diarrhea. In sum, Mexico's potential economic benefits from dengue control would be substantial.

Contribution of stone size to chronic kidney disease in kidney stone formers.

PubMed

Ahmadi, Farrokhlagha; Etemadi, Samira Motedayen; Lessan-Pezeshki, Mahbob; Mahdavi-Mazdeh, Mitra; Ayati, Mohsen; Mir, Alireza; Yazdi, Hadi Rokni

2015-01-01

To determine whether stone burden correlates with the degree of chronic kidney disease in kidney stone formers. A total of 97 extracorporeal shockwave lithotripsy candidates aged 18 years and older were included. Size, number and location of the kidney stones, along with cumulative stone size, defined as the sum of diameters of all stones) were determined. Estimated glomerular filtration rate was determined using the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration cystatin C/creatinine equation, and chronic kidney disease was defined as estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73 m(2). In individuals with cumulative stone size <20 mm, estimated glomerular filtration rate significantly decreased when moving from the first (estimated glomerular filtration rate 75.5 ± 17.8 mL/min/1.73 m(2)) to the fourth (estimated glomerular filtration rate 56.4 ± 20.44 mL/min/1.73 m(2) ) quartile (P = 0.004). When patients with a cumulative stone size ≥ 20 mm were included, the observed association was rendered non-significant. In individuals with a cumulative stone size < 20 mm, each 1-mm increase in cumulative stone size was associated with a 20% increased risk of having chronic kidney disease. The relationship persisted even after adjustment for age, sex, body mass index, C-reactive protein, fasting plasma glucose, thyroid stimulating hormone, presence of microalbuminuria, history of renal calculi, history of extracorporeal shockwave lithotripsy, number and location of the stones (odds ratio 1.24, 95% confidence interval 1.02-1.52). The same was not observed for individuals with a cumulative stone size ≥ 20 mm. In kidney stone formers with a cumulative stone size up to 20 mm, estimated glomerular filtration rate linearly declines with increasing cumulative stone size. Additionally, cumulative stone size is an independent predictor of chronic kidney disease in this group of patients. © 2014 The Japanese Urological Association.

Using Self-reports or Claims to Assess Disease Prevalence: It's Complicated.

PubMed

St Clair, Patricia; Gaudette, Étienne; Zhao, Henu; Tysinger, Bryan; Seyedin, Roxanna; Goldman, Dana P

2017-08-01

Two common ways of measuring disease prevalence include: (1) using self-reported disease diagnosis from survey responses; and (2) using disease-specific diagnosis codes found in administrative data. Because they do not suffer from self-report biases, claims are often assumed to be more objective. However, it is not clear that claims always produce better prevalence estimates. Conduct an assessment of discrepancies between self-report and claims-based measures for 2 diseases in the US elderly to investigate definition, selection, and measurement error issues which may help explain divergence between claims and self-report estimates of prevalence. Self-reported data from 3 sources are included: the Health and Retirement Study, the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey, and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Claims-based disease measurements are provided from Medicare claims linked to Health and Retirement Study and Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey participants, comprehensive claims data from a 20% random sample of Medicare enrollees, and private health insurance claims from Humana Inc. Prevalence of diagnosed disease in the US elderly are computed and compared across sources. Two medical conditions are considered: diabetes and heart attack. Comparisons of diagnosed diabetes and heart attack prevalence show similar trends by source, but claims differ from self-reports with regard to levels. Selection into insurance plans, disease definitions, and the reference period used by algorithms are identified as sources contributing to differences. Claims and self-reports both have strengths and weaknesses, which researchers need to consider when interpreting estimates of prevalence from these 2 sources.

Economic impact of malignant mesothelioma in Italy: an estimate of the public and social costs.

PubMed

Buresti, Giuliana; Colonna, Fabrizio; Corfiati, Marisa; Valenti, Antonio; Persechino, Benedetta; Marinaccio, Alessandro; Rondinone, Bruna Maria; Iavicoli, Sergio

2017-10-27

Despite their considerable interest for public health policies and for occupational disease management and assessment, the economic costs of asbestos-related diseases (ARDs) for society have not been fully estimated or even frequently discussed. The aim of this study was to estimate the economic burden of mesothelioma in Italy by assessing the overall societal cost of the disease, applying an econometric model. We analyzed two main cost groups, public and social. The first includes expenditure borne by the State and other public bodies (medical care costs, insurance, tax and benefits), while the latter uses the human capital approach to measure the loss of productivity suffered by the economy as a whole. We provide an estimate of euro 33,000 per patient for medical care costs and euro 25,000 for insurance and compensation; tax and benefits seem to roughly compensate. We estimated a loss of more than euro 200,000 per patient, in terms of loss of production. This study offers a practical approach for estimating the economic impact of mesothelioma, and provides empirical evidence of the huge economic burden linked to this disease, with its high etiologic fraction.

World Health Organization Estimates of the Global and Regional Disease Burden of 11 Foodborne Parasitic Diseases, 2010: A Data Synthesis

PubMed Central

Torgerson, Paul R.; Devleesschauwer, Brecht; Praet, Nicolas; Speybroeck, Niko; Willingham, Arve Lee; Kasuga, Fumiko; Rokni, Mohammad B.; Zhou, Xiao-Nong; Fèvre, Eric M.; Sripa, Banchob; Gargouri, Neyla; Fürst, Thomas; Budke, Christine M.; Carabin, Hélène; Kirk, Martyn D.; Angulo, Frederick J.; Havelaar, Arie; de Silva, Nilanthi

2015-01-01

Background Foodborne diseases are globally important, resulting in considerable morbidity and mortality. Parasitic diseases often result in high burdens of disease in low and middle income countries and are frequently transmitted to humans via contaminated food. This study presents the first estimates of the global and regional human disease burden of 10 helminth diseases and toxoplasmosis that may be attributed to contaminated food. Methods and Findings Data were abstracted from 16 systematic reviews or similar studies published between 2010 and 2015; from 5 disease data bases accessed in 2015; and from 79 reports, 73 of which have been published since 2000, 4 published between 1995 and 2000 and 2 published in 1986 and 1981. These included reports from national surveillance systems, journal articles, and national estimates of foodborne diseases. These data were used to estimate the number of infections, sequelae, deaths, and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), by age and region for 2010. These parasitic diseases, resulted in 48.4 million cases (95% Uncertainty intervals [UI] of 43.4–79.0 million) and 59,724 (95% UI 48,017–83,616) deaths annually resulting in 8.78 million (95% UI 7.62–12.51 million) DALYs. We estimated that 48% (95% UI 38%-56%) of cases of these parasitic diseases were foodborne, resulting in 76% (95% UI 65%-81%) of the DALYs attributable to these diseases. Overall, foodborne parasitic disease, excluding enteric protozoa, caused an estimated 23.2 million (95% UI 18.2–38.1 million) cases and 45,927 (95% UI 34,763–59,933) deaths annually resulting in an estimated 6.64 million (95% UI 5.61–8.41 million) DALYs. Foodborne Ascaris infection (12.3 million cases, 95% UI 8.29–22.0 million) and foodborne toxoplasmosis (10.3 million cases, 95% UI 7.40–14.9 million) were the most common foodborne parasitic diseases. Human cysticercosis with 2.78 million DALYs (95% UI 2.14–3.61 million), foodborne trematodosis with 2.02 million DALYs (95% UI 1.65–2.48 million) and foodborne toxoplasmosis with 825,000 DALYs (95% UI 561,000–1.26 million) resulted in the highest burdens in terms of DALYs, mainly due to years lived with disability. Foodborne enteric protozoa, reported elsewhere, resulted in an additional 67.2 million illnesses or 492,000 DALYs. Major limitations of our study include often substantial data gaps that had to be filled by imputation and suffer from the uncertainties that surround such models. Due to resource limitations it was also not possible to consider all potentially foodborne parasites (for example Trypanosoma cruzi). Conclusions Parasites are frequently transmitted to humans through contaminated food. These estimates represent an important step forward in understanding the impact of foodborne diseases globally and regionally. The disease burden due to most foodborne parasites is highly focal and results in significant morbidity and mortality among vulnerable populations. PMID:26633705

Frequency of autoimmune diseases in myasthenia gravis: a systematic review.

PubMed

Mao, Zhi-Feng; Yang, Long-Xiu; Mo, Xue-An; Qin, Chao; Lai, Yong-Rong; He, Ning-Yu; Li, Tong; Hackett, Maree L

2011-03-01

The course of myasthenia gravis (MG) may get complicated by the development of other autoimmune diseases. Estimates of the frequency of autoimmune diseases will help inform patients and physicians, direct health policy discussion, provide etiologic clues, and optimize the management of MG. However, the frequency of autoimmune diseases in people with MG is still uncertain. A systematic search for English language studies was conducted by MEDLINE and EMBASE from 1960 through 2010. Incidence studies and case series of all MG subtypes with information about autoimmune diseases were included; 25 studies met the inclusion criteria. Although there was considerable heterogeneity, the pooled estimate of the coexisting autoimmune diseases in MG was 13% (95% confidence interval, 12%-14%). Autoimmune thyroid disease seems to occur more frequently than other autoimmune conditions in MG patients. Heterogeneity in study estimates could be explained by ascertainment bias and case mix. Furthermore, autoimmune diseases occurred significantly more often in females and anti-acetylcholine receptor seropositive MG patients. Patients with MG have an increased frequency of coexisting autoimmune diseases. Autoimmune diseases seem to occur more often in female and seropositive MG patients. Further research is needed to expand our understanding of these associations.

Correlation Between Hierarchical Bayesian and Aerosol Optical Depth PM2.5 Data and Respiratory-Cardiovascular Chronic Diseases

EPA Science Inventory

Tools to estimate PM2.5 mass have expanded in recent years, and now include: 1) stationary monitor readings, 2) Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model estimates, 3) Hierarchical Bayesian (HB) estimates from combined stationary monitor readings and CMAQ model output; and, ...

Developing stochastic epidemiological models to quantify the dynamics of infectious diseases in domestic livestock.

PubMed

MacKenzie, K; Bishop, S C

2001-08-01

A stochastic model describing disease transmission dynamics for a microparasitic infection in a structured domestic animal population is developed and applied to hypothetical epidemics on a pig farm. Rational decision making regarding appropriate control strategies for infectious diseases in domestic livestock requires an understanding of the disease dynamics and risk profiles for different groups of animals. This is best achieved by means of stochastic epidemic models. Methodologies are presented for 1) estimating the probability of an epidemic, given the presence of an infected animal, whether this epidemic is major (requires intervention) or minor (dies out without intervention), and how the location of the infected animal on the farm influences the epidemic probabilities; 2) estimating the basic reproductive ratio, R0 (i.e., the expected number of secondary cases on the introduction of a single infected animal) and the variability of the estimate of this parameter; and 3) estimating the total proportion of animals infected during an epidemic and the total proportion infected at any point in time. The model can be used for assessing impact of altering farm structure on disease dynamics, as well as disease control strategies, including altering farm structure, vaccination, culling, and genetic selection.

An approach to and web-based tool for infectious disease outbreak intervention analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daughton, Ashlynn R.; Generous, Nicholas; Priedhorsky, Reid; Deshpande, Alina

2017-04-01

Infectious diseases are a leading cause of death globally. Decisions surrounding how to control an infectious disease outbreak currently rely on a subjective process involving surveillance and expert opinion. However, there are many situations where neither may be available. Modeling can fill gaps in the decision making process by using available data to provide quantitative estimates of outbreak trajectories. Effective reduction of the spread of infectious diseases can be achieved through collaboration between the modeling community and public health policy community. However, such collaboration is rare, resulting in a lack of models that meet the needs of the public health community. Here we show a Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model modified to include control measures that allows parameter ranges, rather than parameter point estimates, and includes a web user interface for broad adoption. We apply the model to three diseases, measles, norovirus and influenza, to show the feasibility of its use and describe a research agenda to further promote interactions between decision makers and the modeling community.

Space Radiation Heart Disease Risk Estimates for Lunar and Mars Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Chappell, Lori; Kim, Myung-Hee

2010-01-01

The NASA Space Radiation Program performs research on the risks of late effects from space radiation for cancer, neurological disorders, cataracts, and heart disease. For mortality risks, an aggregate over all risks should be considered as well as projection of the life loss per radiation induced death. We report on a triple detriment life-table approach to combine cancer and heart disease risks. Epidemiology results show extensive heterogeneity between populations for distinct components of the overall heart disease risks including hypertension, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and cerebrovascular diseases. We report on an update to our previous heart disease estimates for Heart disease (ICD9 390-429) and Stroke (ICD9 430-438), and other sub-groups using recent meta-analysis results for various exposed radiation cohorts to low LET radiation. Results for multiplicative and additive risk transfer models are considered using baseline rates for US males and female. Uncertainty analysis indicated heart mortality risks as low as zero, assuming a threshold dose for deterministic effects, and projections approaching one-third of the overall cancer risk. Medan life-loss per death estimates were significantly less than that of solid cancer and leukemias. Critical research questions to improve risks estimates for heart disease are distinctions in mechanisms at high doses (>2 Gy) and low to moderate doses (<2 Gy), and data and basic understanding of radiation doserate and quality effects, and individual sensitivity.

The role of pre-invasive disease in overdiagnosis: A microsimulation study comparing mass screening for breast cancer and cervical cancer.

PubMed

van Luijt, Paula A; Rozemeijer, Kirsten; Naber, Steffie K; Heijnsdijk, Eveline Am; van Rosmalen, Joost; van Ballegooijen, Marjolein; de Koning, Harry J

2016-12-01

Although early detection of cancer through screening can prevent cancer deaths, a drawback of screening is overdiagnosis. Overdiagnosis has been much debated in breast cancer screening, but less so in cervical cancer screening. We examined the impact of overdiagnosis by comparing two screening programmes in the Netherlands. We estimated overdiagnosis rates by microsimulation for breast cancer screening and cervical cancer screening, using a cohort of women born in 1982 with lifelong follow-up. Overdiagnosis estimates were made analogous to two definitions formed by the UK 2012 breast screening review. Pre-invasive disease was included in both definitions. Screening prevented 921 cervical cancers (-55%) and 378 cervical cancer deaths (-59%), and 169 (-1.3%) breast cancer cases and 970 breast cancer deaths (-21%). The cervical cancer overdiagnosis rate was 74.8% (including pre-invasive disease). Breast cancer overdiagnosis was estimated at 2.5% (including pre-invasive disease). For women of all ages in breast cancer screening, an excess of 207 diagnoses/100,000 women was found, compared with an excess of 3999 diagnoses/100,000 women in cervical cancer screening. For breast cancer, the frequency of overdiagnosis in screening is relatively low, but consequences are evident. For cervical cancer, the frequency of overdiagnosis in screening is high, because of detection of pre-invasive disease, but the consequences per case are relatively small due to less invasive treatment. This illustrates that it is necessary to present overdiagnosis in relation to disease stage and consequences. © The Author(s) 2016.

[Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease prevalence estimated using a standard algorithm based on electronic health data in various areas of Italy].

PubMed

Faustini, Annunziata; Cascini, Silvia; Arcà, Massimo; Balzi, Daniela; Barchielli, Alessandro; Canova, Cristina; Galassi, Claudia; Migliore, Enrica; Minerba, Sante; Protti, Maria Angela; Romanelli, Anna; Tessari, Roberta; Vigotti, Maria Angela; Simonato, Lorenzo

2008-01-01

to estimate the prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) by integrating various administrative health information systems. prevalent COPD cases were defined as those reported in the hospital discharge registry (HDR) and cause of mortality registry (CMR) with codes 490*, 491*, 492*, 494* and 496* of the International diseases classification 9th revision. Annual prevalence was estimated in 35+ year-old residents in six Italian areas ofb different sizes, in the period 2002-2004. We included cases observed in the previous four years who were alive at the beginning of each year. in 2003, age-standardized prevalence rates varied from 1.6% in Venice to 5% in Taranto. Prevalence was higher in males and increased with age. The highest rates were observed in central (Rome) and southern (Taranto) cities, especially in the 35-64 age group. HDR contributed 91% of cases. Health-tax exemption registry would increase the prevalence estimate by 0.2% if used as a third data source. with respect to the National Health Status survey, COPD prevalence is underestimated by 1%-3%; this can partly be due to the selection of severe and exacerbated COPD by the algorithm used. However, age, gender and geographical characteristics of prevalent cases were comparable to national estimates. Including cases observed in previous years (longitudinal estimates) increased the point estimate (yearly) of prevalence two or three times in each area.

Diagnostic Testing and Interpretation of Tests for Autoimmunity

PubMed Central

Castro, Christine; Gourley, Mark

2010-01-01

Laboratory testing is of great value when evaluating a patient with a suspected autoimmune disease. The results can confirm a diagnosis, estimate disease severity, aid in assessing prognosis and are useful to follow disease activity. Components of the laboratory exam include complete blood count with differential, comprehensive metabolic panel, inflammatory markers, autoantibodies, and flow cytometry. This chapter discusses these components and includes a discussion about organ-specific immunologic diseases where immunological laboratory testing is employed. Comprehensive laboratory evaluation of a suspected autoimmune illness in conjunction with a thorough clinical evaluation provides a better understanding of a patient's immunologic disease. PMID:20061009

Alaska Native Parkinson’s Disease Registry

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-11-01

OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for...reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing this collection of...information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this

Animal board invited review: Dairy cow lameness expenditures, losses and total cost.

PubMed

Dolecheck, K; Bewley, J

2018-07-01

Lameness is one of the most costly dairy cow diseases, yet adoption of lameness prevention strategies remains low. Low lameness prevention adoption might be attributable to a lack of understanding regarding total lameness costs. In this review, we evaluated the contribution of different expenditures and losses to total lameness costs. Evaluated expenditures included labor for treatment, therapeutic supplies, lameness detection and lameness control and prevention. Evaluated losses included non-saleable milk, reduced milk production, reduced reproductive performance, increased animal death, increased animal culling, disease interrelationships, lameness recurrence and reduced animal welfare. The previous literature on total lameness cost estimates was also summarized. The reviewed studies indicated that previous estimates of total lameness costs are variable and inconsistent in the expenditures and losses they include. Many of the identified expenditure and loss categories require further research to accurately include in total lameness cost estimates. Future research should focus on identifying costs associated with specific lameness conditions, differing lameness severity levels, and differing stages of lactation at onset of lameness to provide better total lameness cost estimates that can be useful for decision making at both the herd and individual cow level.

Starting from the bench--prevention and control of foodborne and zoonotic diseases.

PubMed

Vongkamjan, Kitiya; Wiedmann, Martin

2015-02-01

Foodborne diseases are estimated to cause around 50 million disease cases and 3000 deaths a year in the US. Worldwide, food and waterborne diseases are estimated to cause more than 2 million deaths per year. Lab-based research is a key component of efforts to prevent and control foodborne diseases. Over the last two decades, molecular characterization of pathogen isolates has emerged as a key component of foodborne and zoonotic disease prevention and control. Characterization methods have evolved from banding pattern-based subtyping methods to sequenced-based approaches, including full genome sequencing. Molecular subtyping methods not only play a key role for characterizing pathogen transmission and detection of disease outbreaks, but also allow for identification of clonal pathogen groups that show distinct transmission characteristics. Importantly, the data generated from molecular characterization of foodborne pathogens also represent critical inputs for epidemiological and modeling studies. Continued and enhanced collaborations between infectious disease related laboratory sciences and epidemiologists, modelers, and other quantitative scientists will be critical to a One-Health approach that delivers societal benefits, including improved surveillance systems and prevention approaches for zoonotic and foodborne pathogens. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Models for estimating and projecting global, regional and national prevalence and disease burden of asthma: protocol for a systematic review.

PubMed

Bhuia, Mohammad Romel; Nwaru, Bright I; Weir, Christopher J; Sheikh, Aziz

2017-05-17

Models that have so far been used to estimate and project the prevalence and disease burden of asthma are in most cases inadequately described and irreproducible. We aim systematically to describe and critique the existing models in relation to their strengths, limitations and reproducibility, and to determine the appropriate models for estimating and projecting the prevalence and disease burden of asthma. We will search the following electronic databases to identify relevant literature published from 1980 to 2017: Medline, Embase, WHO Library and Information Services and Web of Science Core Collection. We will identify additional studies by searching the reference list of all the retrieved papers and contacting experts. We will include observational studies that used models for estimating and/or projecting prevalence and disease burden of asthma regarding human population of any age and sex. Two independent reviewers will assess the studies for inclusion and extract data from included papers. Data items will include authors' names, publication year, study aims, data source and time period, study population, asthma outcomes, study methodology, model type, model settings, study variables, methods of model derivation, methods of parameter estimation and/or projection, model fit information, key findings and identified research gaps. A detailed critical narrative synthesis of the models will be undertaken in relation to their strengths, limitations and reproducibility. A quality assessment checklist and scoring framework will be used to determine the appropriate models for estimating and projecting the prevalence anddiseaseburden of asthma. We will not collect any primary data for this review, and hence there is no need for formal National Health Services Research Ethics Committee approval. We will present our findings at scientific conferences and publish the findings in the peer-reviewed scientific journal. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Leveraging Real-World Evidence in Disease-Management Decision-Making with a Total Cost of Care Estimator.

PubMed

Nguyen, Thanh-Nghia; Trocio, Jeffrey; Kowal, Stacey; Ferrufino, Cheryl P; Munakata, Julie; South, Dell

2016-12-01

Health management is becoming increasingly complex, given a range of care options and the need to balance costs and quality. The ability to measure and understand drivers of costs is critical for healthcare organizations to effectively manage their patient populations. Healthcare decision makers can leverage real-world evidence to explore the value of disease-management interventions in shifting total cost trends. To develop a real-world, evidence-based estimator that examines the impact of disease-management interventions on the total cost of care (TCoC) for a patient population with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). Data were collected from a patient-level real-world evidence data set that uses the IMS PharMetrics Health Plan Claims Database. Pharmacy and medical claims for patients meeting the inclusion or exclusion criteria were combined in longitudinal cohorts with a 180-day preindex and 360-day follow-up period. Descriptive statistics, such as mean and median patient costs and event rates, were derived from a real-world evidence analysis and were used to populate the base-case estimates within the TCoC estimator, an exploratory economic model that was designed to estimate the potential impact of several disease-management activities on the TCoC for a patient population with NVAF. Using Microsoft Excel, the estimator is designed to compare current direct costs of medical care to projected costs by varying assumptions on the impact of disease-management activities and applying the associated changes in cost trends to the affected populations. Disease-management levers are derived from literature-based concepts affecting costs along the NVAF disease continuum. The use of the estimator supports analyses across 4 US geographic regions, age, cost types, and care settings during 1 year. All patients included in the study were continuously enrolled in their health plan (within the IMS PharMetrics Health Plan Claims Database) between July 1, 2010, and June 30, 2012. Patients were included in the final analytic file and were indexed based on (1) the service date of the first claim within the selection window (December 28, 2010-July 11, 2011) with a diagnosis of NVAF, or (2) the service date of the second claim for an NVAF medication of interest during the same selection window. The model estimates the current trends in national benchmark data for a hypothetical health plan with 1 million covered lives. The annual total direct healthcare costs (allowable and patient out-of-pocket costs) of managing patients with NVAF in this hypothetical plan are estimated at $184,981,245 ($25,754 per patient, for 7183 patients). A potential 25% improvement from the base-case disease burden and disease management could translate into TCoC savings from reducing the excess costs related to hypertension (-5.3%) and supporting the use of an appropriate antithrombotic treatment that prevents ischemic stroke (-0.7%) and reduces bleeding events (-0.1%). The use of the TCoC estimator supports population health management by providing real-world evidence benchmark data on NVAF disease burden and by quantifying the potential value of disease-management activities in shifting cost trends.

Leveraging Real-World Evidence in Disease-Management Decision-Making with a Total Cost of Care Estimator

PubMed Central

Nguyen, Thanh-Nghia; Trocio, Jeffrey; Kowal, Stacey; Ferrufino, Cheryl P.; Munakata, Julie; South, Dell

2016-01-01

Background Health management is becoming increasingly complex, given a range of care options and the need to balance costs and quality. The ability to measure and understand drivers of costs is critical for healthcare organizations to effectively manage their patient populations. Healthcare decision makers can leverage real-world evidence to explore the value of disease-management interventions in shifting total cost trends. Objective To develop a real-world, evidence-based estimator that examines the impact of disease-management interventions on the total cost of care (TCoC) for a patient population with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). Methods Data were collected from a patient-level real-world evidence data set that uses the IMS PharMetrics Health Plan Claims Database. Pharmacy and medical claims for patients meeting the inclusion or exclusion criteria were combined in longitudinal cohorts with a 180-day preindex and 360-day follow-up period. Descriptive statistics, such as mean and median patient costs and event rates, were derived from a real-world evidence analysis and were used to populate the base-case estimates within the TCoC estimator, an exploratory economic model that was designed to estimate the potential impact of several disease-management activities on the TCoC for a patient population with NVAF. Using Microsoft Excel, the estimator is designed to compare current direct costs of medical care to projected costs by varying assumptions on the impact of disease-management activities and applying the associated changes in cost trends to the affected populations. Disease-management levers are derived from literature-based concepts affecting costs along the NVAF disease continuum. The use of the estimator supports analyses across 4 US geographic regions, age, cost types, and care settings during 1 year. Results All patients included in the study were continuously enrolled in their health plan (within the IMS PharMetrics Health Plan Claims Database) between July 1, 2010, and June 30, 2012. Patients were included in the final analytic file and were indexed based on (1) the service date of the first claim within the selection window (December 28, 2010-July 11, 2011) with a diagnosis of NVAF, or (2) the service date of the second claim for an NVAF medication of interest during the same selection window. The model estimates the current trends in national benchmark data for a hypothetical health plan with 1 million covered lives. The annual total direct healthcare costs (allowable and patient out-of-pocket costs) of managing patients with NVAF in this hypothetical plan are estimated at $184,981,245 ($25,754 per patient, for 7183 patients). A potential 25% improvement from the base-case disease burden and disease management could translate into TCoC savings from reducing the excess costs related to hypertension (−5.3%) and supporting the use of an appropriate antithrombotic treatment that prevents ischemic stroke (−0.7%) and reduces bleeding events (−0.1%). Conclusions The use of the TCoC estimator supports population health management by providing real-world evidence benchmark data on NVAF disease burden and by quantifying the potential value of disease-management activities in shifting cost trends. PMID:28465775

Ionizing radiation and genetic risks. XIII. Summary and synthesis of papers VI to XII and estimates of genetic risks in the year 2000.

PubMed

Sankaranarayanan, K; Chakraborty, R

2000-10-16

This paper recapitulates the advances in the field of genetic risk estimation that have occurred during the past decade and using them as a basis, presents revised estimates of genetic risks of exposure to radiation. The advances include: (i) an upward revision of the estimates of incidence for Mendelian diseases (2.4% now versus 1.25% in 1993); (ii) the introduction of a conceptual change for calculating doubling doses; (iii) the elaboration of methods to estimate the mutation component (i.e. the relative increase in disease frequency per unit relative increase in mutation rate) and the use of the estimates obtained through these methods for assessing the impact of induced mutations on the incidence of Mendelian and chronic multifactorial diseases; (iv) the introduction of an additional factor called the "potential recoverability correction factor" in the risk equation to bridge the gap between radiation-induced mutations that have been recovered in mice and the risk of radiation-inducible genetic disease in human live births and (v) the introduction of the concept that the adverse effects of radiation-induced genetic damage are likely to be manifest predominantly as multi-system developmental abnormalities in the progeny. For all classes of genetic disease (except congenital abnormalities), the estimates of risk have been obtained using a doubling dose of 1 Gy. For a population exposed to low LET, chronic/ low dose irradiation, the current estimates for the first generation progeny are the following (all estimates per million live born progeny per Gy of parental irradiation): autosomal dominant and X-linked diseases, approximately 750-1500 cases; autosomal recessive, nearly zero and chronic multifactorial diseases, approximately 250-1200 cases. For congenital abnormalities, the estimate is approximately 2000 cases and is based on mouse data on developmental abnormalities. The total risk per Gy is of the order of approximately 3000-4700 cases which represent approximately 0.4-0.6% of the baseline frequency of these diseases (738,000 per million) in the population.

The economic burden of skin disease in the United States.

PubMed

Dehkharghani, Seena; Bible, Jason; Chen, John G; Feldman, Steven R; Fleischer, Alan B

2003-04-01

Skin diseases and their complications are a significant burden on the nation, both in terms of acute and chronic morbidities and their related expenditures for care. Because accurately calculating the cost of skin disease has proven difficult in the past, we present here multiple comparative techniques allowing a more expanded approach to estimating the overall economic burden. Our aims were to (1) determine the economic burden of primary diseases falling within the realm of skin disease, as defined by modern clinical disease classification schemes and (2) identify the specific contribution of each component of costs to the overall expense. Costs were taken as the sum of several factors, divided into direct and indirect health care costs. The direct costs included inpatient hospital costs, ambulatory visit costs (further divided into physician's office visits, outpatient department visits, and emergency department visits), prescription drug costs, and self-care/over-the-counter drug costs. Indirect costs were calculated as the outlay of days of work lost because of skin diseases. The economic burden of skin disease in the United States is large, estimated at approximately $35.9 billion for 1997, including $19.8 billion (54%) in ambulatory care costs; $7.2 billion (20.2%) in hospital inpatient charges; $3.0 billion (8.2%) in prescription drug costs; $4.3 billion (11.7%) in over-the-counter preparations; and $1.6 billion (6.0%) in indirect costs attributable to lost workdays. Our determination of the economic burden of skin care in the United States surpasses past estimates several-fold, and the model presented for calculating cost of illness allows for tracking changes in national expenses for skin care in future studies. The amount of estimated resources devoted to skin disease management is far more than required to treat conditions such as urinary incontinence ($16 billion) and hypertension ($23 billion), but far less than required to treat musculoskeletal conditions ($193 billion).

Prevalence and Medical Costs of Chronic Diseases Among Adult Medicaid Beneficiaries

PubMed Central

Chapel, John M.; Ritchey, Matthew D.; Zhang, Donglan; Wang, Guijing

2018-01-01

Introduction This review summarizes the current literature for the prevalence and medical costs of noncommunicable chronic diseases among adult Medicaid beneficiaries to inform future program design. Methods The databases MEDLINE and CINAHL were searched in August 2016 using keywords, including Medicaid, health status, and healthcare cost, to identify original studies that were published during 2000–2016, examined Medicaid as an independent population group, examined prevalence or medical costs of chronic conditions, and included adults within the age group 18–64 years. The review and data extraction was conducted in Fall 2016–Spring 2017. Disease-related costs (costs specifically to treat the disease) and total costs (all-cause medical costs for a patient with the disease) are presented separately. Results Among the 29 studies selected, prevalence estimates for enrollees aged 18–64 years were 8.8%–11.8% for heart disease, 17.2%–27.4% for hypertension, 16.8%–23.2% for hyperlipidemia, 7.5%–12.7% for diabetes, 9.5% for cancer, 7.8%–19.3% for asthma, 5.0%–22.3% for depression, and 55.7%–62.1% for one or more chronic conditions. Estimated annual per patient disease-related costs (2015 U.S. dollars) were $3,219–$4,674 for diabetes, $3,968–$6,491 for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and $989–$3,069 for asthma. Estimated hypertension-related costs were $687, but total costs per hypertensive beneficiary ranged much higher. Estimated total annual healthcare costs were $29,271–$51,937 per beneficiary with heart failure and $11,446–$20,585 per beneficiary with schizophrenia. Costs among beneficiaries with cancer were $29,384–$46,194 for the 6 months following diagnosis. Conclusions These findings could help inform the evaluation of interventions to prevent and manage noncommunicable chronic diseases and their potential to control costs among the vulnerable Medicaid population. PMID:29153115

Simple anthropometrics are more correlated with health variables than are estimates of body composition in Yup'ik people.

PubMed

Bray, Maria; Pomeroy, Jeremy; Knowler, William C; Bersamin, Andrea; Hopkins, Scarlett; Brage, Søren; Stanhope, Kimber; Havel, Peter J; Boyer, Bert B

2013-09-01

To (1) evaluate the relationships between several indices of obesity with obesity-related risk factors; (2) compare the accuracy of body composition estimates derived from anthropometry and bioimpedance analysis (BIA) to estimates of body composition assessed by doubly-labeled water (DLW); and (3) establish equations for estimating fat mass (FM), fat-free mass (FFM), and percent body fat (PBF) in Yup'ik people. Participants included 1,056 adult Yup'ik people from 11 communities in Southwestern Alaska. In a sub-study of 30 participants, we developed population-specific linear regression models for estimating FM, FFM, and PBF from anthropometrics, age, sex, and BIA against criterion measures derived from total body water assessed with DLW. These models were then used with the population cohort and we analyzed the relationships between obesity indices and several health-related and disease status variables: (1) fasting plasma lipids, (2) glucose, (3) HbA1c, (4) adiponectin, (5) blood pressure, (6) diabetes (DM), and (7) cerebrocoronary vascular disease (CCVD) which includes stroke and heart disease. The best model for estimating FM in the sub-study used only three variables-sex, waist circumference (WC), and hip circumference and had multiple R(2) = 0.9730. FFM and PBF were calculated from FM and body weight. WC and other anthropometrics were more highly correlated with a number of obesity-related risk factors than were direct estimates of body composition. Body composition in Yup'ik people can be accurately estimated from simple anthropometrics. Copyright © 2012 The Obesity Society.

Simple Anthropometrics Are More Correlated with Health Variables than Are Estimates of Body Composition in Yup’ik People

PubMed Central

Bray, Maria; Pomeroy, Jeremy; Knowler, William C.; Bersamin, Andrea; Hopkins, Scarlett; Brage, Søren; Stanhope, Kimber; Havel, Peter J.; Boyer, Bert B.

2012-01-01

We aimed to: 1) evaluate the relationships between several indices of obesity with obesity-related risk factors; 2) compare the accuracy of body composition estimates derived from anthropometry and bioimpedance analysis (BIA) to estimates of body composition assessed by doubly-labeled water (DLW); and 3) establish equations for estimating fat mass (FM), fat-free mass (FFM), and percent body fat (PBF) in Yup’ik Eskimo people. Participants included 1056 adult Yup’ik People from 11 communities in Southwestern Alaska. In a substudy of 30 participants, we developed population-specific linear regression models for estimating FM, FFM, and PBF from anthropometrics, age, sex, and BIA against criterion measures derived from total body water assessed with DLW. These models were then used with the population cohort and we analyzed the relationships between obesity indices and several health-related and disease status variables: 1. fasting plasma lipids, 2. glucose, 3. HbA1c, 4. adiponectin, 5. blood pressure, 6) diabetes (DM), and 7) cerebrocoronary vascular disease (CCVD) which includes stroke and heart disease. The best model for estimating FM in the substudy used only three variables – sex, waist circumference (WC), and hip circumference and had multiple R2=0.9730. FFM and PBF were calculated from FM and body weight. WC and other anthropometrics were more highly correlated with a number of obesity-related risk factors than were direct estimates of body composition. We conclude that body composition in Yup’ik People can be accurately estimated from simple anthropometrics. PMID:23666898

The burden of mental disorders: a comparison of methods between the Australian burden of disease studies and the Global Burden of Disease study.

PubMed Central

Vos, T.; Mathers, C. D.

2000-01-01

The national and Victorian burden of disease studies in Australia set out to examine critically the methods used in the Global Burden of Disease study to estimate the burden of mental disorders. The main differences include the use of a different set of disability weights allowing estimates in greater detail by level of severity, adjustments for comorbidity between mental disorders, a greater number of mental disorders measured, and modelling of substance use disorders, anxiety disorders and bipolar disorder as chronic conditions. Uniform age-weighting in the Australian studies produces considerably lower estimates of the burden due to mental disorders in comparison with age-weighted disability-adjusted life years. A lack of follow-up data on people with mental disorders who are identified in cross-sectional surveys poses the greatest challenge in determining the burden of mental disorders more accurately. PMID:10885161

Absenteeism and Employer Costs Associated With Chronic Diseases and Health Risk Factors in the US Workforce.

PubMed

Asay, Garrett R Beeler; Roy, Kakoli; Lang, Jason E; Payne, Rebecca L; Howard, David H

2016-10-06

Employers may incur costs related to absenteeism among employees who have chronic diseases or unhealthy behaviors. We examined the association between employee absenteeism and 5 conditions: 3 risk factors (smoking, physical inactivity, and obesity) and 2 chronic diseases (hypertension and diabetes). We identified 5 chronic diseases or risk factors from 2 data sources: MarketScan Health Risk Assessment and the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS). Absenteeism was measured as the number of workdays missed because of sickness or injury. We used zero-inflated Poisson regression to estimate excess absenteeism as the difference in the number of days missed from work by those who reported having a risk factor or chronic disease and those who did not. Covariates included demographics (eg, age, education, sex) and employment variables (eg, industry, union membership). We quantified absenteeism costs in 2011 and adjusted them to reflect growth in employment costs to 2015 dollars. Finally, we estimated absenteeism costs for a hypothetical small employer (100 employees) and a hypothetical large employer (1,000 employees). Absenteeism estimates ranged from 1 to 2 days per individual per year depending on the risk factor or chronic disease. Except for the physical inactivity and obesity estimates, disease- and risk-factor-specific estimates were similar in MEPS and MarketScan. Absenteeism increased with the number of risk factors or diseases reported. Nationally, each risk factor or disease was associated with annual absenteeism costs greater than $2 billion. Absenteeism costs ranged from $16 to $81 (small employer) and $17 to $286 (large employer) per employee per year. Absenteeism costs associated with chronic diseases and health risk factors can be substantial. Employers may incur these costs through lower productivity, and employees could incur costs through lower wages.

Absenteeism and Employer Costs Associated With Chronic Diseases and Health Risk Factors in the US Workforce

PubMed Central

Roy, Kakoli; Lang, Jason E.; Payne, Rebecca L.; Howard, David H.

2016-01-01

Introduction Employers may incur costs related to absenteeism among employees who have chronic diseases or unhealthy behaviors. We examined the association between employee absenteeism and 5 conditions: 3 risk factors (smoking, physical inactivity, and obesity) and 2 chronic diseases (hypertension and diabetes). Methods We identified 5 chronic diseases or risk factors from 2 data sources: MarketScan Health Risk Assessment and the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS). Absenteeism was measured as the number of workdays missed because of sickness or injury. We used zero-inflated Poisson regression to estimate excess absenteeism as the difference in the number of days missed from work by those who reported having a risk factor or chronic disease and those who did not. Covariates included demographics (eg, age, education, sex) and employment variables (eg, industry, union membership). We quantified absenteeism costs in 2011 and adjusted them to reflect growth in employment costs to 2015 dollars. Finally, we estimated absenteeism costs for a hypothetical small employer (100 employees) and a hypothetical large employer (1,000 employees). Results Absenteeism estimates ranged from 1 to 2 days per individual per year depending on the risk factor or chronic disease. Except for the physical inactivity and obesity estimates, disease- and risk-factor–specific estimates were similar in MEPS and MarketScan. Absenteeism increased with the number of risk factors or diseases reported. Nationally, each risk factor or disease was associated with annual absenteeism costs greater than $2 billion. Absenteeism costs ranged from $16 to $81 (small employer) and $17 to $286 (large employer) per employee per year. Conclusion Absenteeism costs associated with chronic diseases and health risk factors can be substantial. Employers may incur these costs through lower productivity, and employees could incur costs through lower wages. PMID:27710764

Automatic detection of retina disease: robustness to image quality and localization of anatomy structure.

PubMed

Karnowski, T P; Aykac, D; Giancardo, L; Li, Y; Nichols, T; Tobin, K W; Chaum, E

2011-01-01

The automated detection of diabetic retinopathy and other eye diseases in images of the retina has great promise as a low-cost method for broad-based screening. Many systems in the literature which perform automated detection include a quality estimation step and physiological feature detection, including the vascular tree and the optic nerve / macula location. In this work, we study the robustness of an automated disease detection method with respect to the accuracy of the optic nerve location and the quality of the images obtained as judged by a quality estimation algorithm. The detection algorithm features microaneurysm and exudate detection followed by feature extraction on the detected population to describe the overall retina image. Labeled images of retinas ground-truthed to disease states are used to train a supervised learning algorithm to identify the disease state of the retina image and exam set. Under the restrictions of high confidence optic nerve detections and good quality imagery, the system achieves a sensitivity and specificity of 94.8% and 78.7% with area-under-curve of 95.3%. Analysis of the effect of constraining quality and the distinction between mild non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy, normal retina images, and more severe disease states is included.

Prevalence of chronic kidney disease among patients undergoing transradial percutaneous coronary interventions.

PubMed

Hossain, Mohammad A; Quinlan, Amy; Heck-Kanellidis, Jennifer; Calderon, Dawn; Patel, Tejas; Gandhi, Bhavika; Patel, Shrinil; Hetavi, Mahida; Costanzo, Eric J; Cosentino, James; Patel, Chirag; Dewan, Asa; Kuo, Yen-Hong; Salman, Loay; Vachharajani, Tushar J

2018-07-01

While transradial approach to conduct percutaneous coronary interventions offers multiple advantages, the procedure can cause radial artery damage and occlusion. Because radial artery is the preferred site for the creation of an arteriovenous fistula to provide dialysis, patients with chronic kidney disease are particularly dependent on radial artery for their long-term survival. In this retrospective study, we investigated the prevalence of chronic kidney disease in patients undergoing coronary interventions via radial artery. Stage of chronic kidney disease was based on estimated glomerular filtration rate and National Kidney Foundation - Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiative guidelines. A total of 497 patients undergoing transradial percutaneous coronary interventions were included. Over 70.4% (350/497) of the patients had chronic kidney disease. Stage II chronic kidney disease was observed in 243 (69%) patients (estimated glomerular filtration rate = 76.0 ± 8.4 mL/min). Stage III was observed in 93 (27%) patients (estimated glomerular filtration rate = 49 ± 7.5 mL/min). Stage IV chronic kidney disease was observed in 5 (1%) patients (estimated glomerular filtration rate = 25.6 ± 4.3 mL/min) and Stage V chronic kidney disease was observed in 9 (3%) patients (estimated glomerular filtration rate = 9.3 ± 3.5 mL/min). Overall, 107 of 350 patients (30%) had advanced chronic kidney disease, that is, stage III-V chronic kidney disease. Importantly, 14 of the 107 (13%) patients had either stage IV or V chronic kidney disease. This study finds that nearly one-third of the patients undergoing transradial percutaneous coronary interventions have advanced chronic kidney disease. Because many of these patients may require dialysis, the use of radial artery to conduct percutaneous coronary interventions must be carefully considered in chronic kidney disease population.

Prevalence of Chagas disease in pregnant women and congenital transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi in Brazil: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio; Lima, Mauricélia da Silveira; Ramos, Alberto Novaes; Alencar, Carlos Henrique; Heukelbach, Jörg

2014-08-01

To estimate the prevalence of Chagas disease in pregnant women and the risk of congenital transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi infection in Brazil, through a systematic review and meta-analysis. We searched electronic databases, grey literature and reference lists of included publications to identify epidemiological studies on the prevalence of Chagas disease in pregnant women and on the congenital transmission rate of T. cruzi infection in Brazil published between January 1980 and June 2013. Pooled estimates and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were calculated using fixed- and random-effects models. Sixteen articles were included - 12 studies on the prevalence of Chagas disease in pregnant women (549,359 pregnant women) and nine on congenital transmission rates (1687 children born to infected mothers). Prevalence of Chagas disease in pregnant women ranged from 0.1% to 8.5%, and congenital transmission rates from 0% to 5.2%. The pooled prevalence of Chagas disease among pregnant women across studies was 1.1% (95% CI: 0.6-2.0); the pooled congenital transmission rate was 1.7% (95% CI: 0.9-3.1). In 2010, 34,629 pregnant women were estimated to be infected with T. cruzi, and 312-1073 children born (mean: 589 cases) with congenital infection. Congenital Chagas disease is a neglected public health problem in Brazil. Systematic congenital Chagas disease control programs through routine prenatal screening for T. cruzi should be widely implemented in Brazil's endemic areas, to identify infected pregnant women and newborns at risk of congenital infection. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Use of disease risk scores in pharmacoepidemiologic studies.

PubMed

Arbogast, Patrick G; Ray, Wayne A

2009-02-01

Automated databases are increasingly used in pharmacoepidemiologic studies. These databases include records of prescribed medications and encounters with medical care providers from which one can construct very detailed surrogate measures for both drug exposure and covariates that are potential confounders. Often it is possible to track day-by-day changes in these variables. However, while this information is often critical for study success, its volume can pose challenges for statistical analysis. One common approach is the use of propensity scores. An alternative approach is to construct a disease risk score. This is analogous to the propensity score in that it calculates a summary measure from the covariates. However, the disease risk score estimates the probability or rate of disease occurrence conditional on being unexposed. The association between exposure and disease is then estimated adjusting for the disease risk score in place of the individual covariates. This review describes the use of disease risk scores in pharmacoepidemiologic studies, and includes a brief discussion of their history, a more detailed description of their construction and use, a summary of simulation studies comparing their performance vis-á-vis traditional models, a comparison of their utility with that of propensity scores, and some further topics for future research.

Dengue prediction by the web: Tweets are a useful tool for estimating and forecasting Dengue at country and city level.

PubMed

Marques-Toledo, Cecilia de Almeida; Degener, Carolin Marlen; Vinhal, Livia; Coelho, Giovanini; Meira, Wagner; Codeço, Claudia Torres; Teixeira, Mauro Martins

2017-07-01

Infectious diseases are a leading threat to public health. Accurate and timely monitoring of disease risk and progress can reduce their impact. Mentioning a disease in social networks is correlated with physician visits by patients, and can be used to estimate disease activity. Dengue is the fastest growing mosquito-borne viral disease, with an estimated annual incidence of 390 million infections, of which 96 million manifest clinically. Dengue burden is likely to increase in the future owing to trends toward increased urbanization, scarce water supplies and, possibly, environmental change. The epidemiological dynamic of Dengue is complex and difficult to predict, partly due to costly and slow surveillance systems. In this study, we aimed to quantitatively assess the usefulness of data acquired by Twitter for the early detection and monitoring of Dengue epidemics, both at country and city level at a weekly basis. Here, we evaluated and demonstrated the potential of tweets modeling for Dengue estimation and forecast, in comparison with other available web-based data, Google Trends and Wikipedia access logs. Also, we studied the factors that might influence the goodness-of-fit of the model. We built a simple model based on tweets that was able to 'nowcast', i.e. estimate disease numbers in the same week, but also 'forecast' disease in future weeks. At the country level, tweets are strongly associated with Dengue cases, and can estimate present and future Dengue cases until 8 weeks in advance. At city level, tweets are also useful for estimating Dengue activity. Our model can be applied successfully to small and less developed cities, suggesting a robust construction, even though it may be influenced by the incidence of the disease, the activity of Twitter locally, and social factors, including human development index and internet access. Tweets association with Dengue cases is valuable to assist traditional Dengue surveillance at real-time and low-cost. Tweets are able to successfully nowcast, i.e. estimate Dengue in the present week, but also forecast, i.e. predict Dengue at until 8 weeks in the future, both at country and city level with high estimation capacity.

Global Burden of Leptospirosis: Estimated in Terms of Disability Adjusted Life Years

PubMed Central

Torgerson, Paul R.; Hagan, José E.; Costa, Federico; Calcagno, Juan; Kane, Michael; Martinez-Silveira, Martha S.; Goris, Marga G. A.; Stein, Claudia; Ko, Albert I.; Abela-Ridder, Bernadette

2015-01-01

Background Leptospirosis, a spirochaetal zoonosis, occurs in diverse epidemiological settings and affects vulnerable populations, such as rural subsistence farmers and urban slum dwellers. Although leptospirosis can cause life-threatening disease, there is no global burden of disease estimate in terms of Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) available. Methodology/Principal Findings We utilised the results of a parallel publication that reported global estimates of morbidity and mortality due to leptospirosis. We estimated Years of Life Lost (YLLs) from age and gender stratified mortality rates. Years of Life with Disability (YLDs) were developed from a simple disease model indicating likely sequelae. DALYs were estimated from the sum of YLLs and YLDs. The study suggested that globally approximately 2·90 million DALYs are lost per annum (UIs 1·25–4·54 million) from the approximately annual 1·03 million cases reported previously. Males are predominantly affected with an estimated 2·33 million DALYs (UIs 0·98–3·69) or approximately 80% of the total burden. For comparison, this is over 70% of the global burden of cholera estimated by GBD 2010. Tropical regions of South and South-east Asia, Western Pacific, Central and South America, and Africa had the highest estimated leptospirosis disease burden. Conclusions/Significance Leptospirosis imparts a significant health burden worldwide, which approach or exceed those encountered for a number of other zoonotic and neglected tropical diseases. The study findings indicate that highest burden estimates occur in resource-poor tropical countries, which include regions of Africa where the burden of leptospirosis has been under-appreciated and possibly misallocated to other febrile illnesses such as malaria. PMID:26431366

D-PSA-K: A Model for Estimating the Accumulated Potential Damage on Kiwifruit Canes Caused by Bacterial Canker during the Growing and Overwintering Seasons.

PubMed

Do, Ki Seok; Chung, Bong Nam; Joa, Jae Ho

2016-12-01

We developed a model, termed D-PSA-K, to estimate the accumulated potential damage on kiwifruit canes caused by bacterial canker during the growing and overwintering seasons. The model consisted of three parts including estimation of the amount of necrotic lesion in a non-frozen environment, the rate of necrosis increase in a freezing environment during the overwintering season, and the amount of necrotic lesion on kiwifruit canes caused by bacterial canker during the overwintering and growing seasons. We evaluated the model's accuracy by comparing the observed maximum disease incidence on kiwifruit canes against the damage estimated using weather and disease data collected at Wando during 1994-1997 and at Seogwipo during 2014-2015. For the Hayward cultivar, D-PSA-K estimated the accumulated damage as approximately nine times the observed maximum disease incidence. For the Hort16A cultivar, the accumulated damage estimated by D-PSA-K was high when the observed disease incidence was high. D-PSA-K could assist kiwifruit growers in selecting optimal sites for kiwifruit cultivation and establishing improved production plans by predicting the loss in kiwifruit production due to bacterial canker, using past weather or future climate change data.

Malaria Disease Mapping in Malaysia based on Besag-York-Mollie (BYM) Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azah Samat, Nor; Mey, Liew Wan

2017-09-01

Disease mapping is the visual representation of the geographical distribution which give an overview info about the incidence of disease within a population through spatial epidemiology data. Based on the result of map, it helps in monitoring and planning resource needs at all levels of health care and designing appropriate interventions, tailored towards areas that deserve closer scrutiny or communities that lead to further investigations to identify important risk factors. Therefore, the choice of statistical model used for relative risk estimation is important because production of disease risk map relies on the model used. This paper proposes Besag-York-Mollie (BYM) model to estimate the relative risk for Malaria in Malaysia. The analysis involved using the number of Malaria cases that obtained from the Ministry of Health Malaysia. The outcomes of analysis are displayed through graph and map, including Malaria disease risk map that constructed according to the estimation of relative risk. The distribution of high and low risk areas of Malaria disease occurrences for all states in Malaysia can be identified in the risk map.

Burden of Disease from Toxic Waste Sites in India, Indonesia, and the Philippines in 2010

PubMed Central

Caravanos, Jack; Ericson, Bret; Sunga-Amparo, Jennifer; Susilorini, Budi; Sharma, Promila; Landrigan, Philip J.; Fuller, Richard

2013-01-01

Background: Prior calculations of the burden of disease from toxic exposures have not included estimates of the burden from toxic waste sites due to the absence of exposure data. Objective: We developed a disability-adjusted life year (DALY)-based estimate of the disease burden attributable to toxic waste sites. We focused on three low- and middle-income countries (LMICs): India, Indonesia, and the Philippines. Methods: Sites were identified through the Blacksmith Institute’s Toxic Sites Identification Program, a global effort to identify waste sites in LMICs. At least one of eight toxic chemicals was sampled in environmental media at each site, and the population at risk estimated. By combining estimates of disease incidence from these exposures with population data, we calculated the DALYs attributable to exposures at each site. Results: We estimated that in 2010, 8,629,750 persons were at risk of exposure to industrial pollutants at 373 toxic waste sites in the three countries, and that these exposures resulted in 828,722 DALYs, with a range of 814,934–1,557,121 DALYs, depending on the weighting factor used. This disease burden is comparable to estimated burdens for outdoor air pollution (1,448,612 DALYs) and malaria (725,000 DALYs) in these countries. Lead and hexavalent chromium collectively accounted for 99.2% of the total DALYs for the chemicals evaluated. Conclusions: Toxic waste sites are responsible for a significant burden of disease in LMICs. Although some factors, such as unidentified and unscreened sites, may cause our estimate to be an underestimate of the actual burden of disease, other factors, such as extrapolation of environmental sampling to the entire exposed population, may result in an overestimate of the burden of disease attributable to these sites. Toxic waste sites are a major, and heretofore underrecognized, global health problem. PMID:23649493

Estimates of the direct and indirect cost savings associated with heart disease that could be avoided through dietary change in the United States.

PubMed

Cawley, John; Meyerhoefer, Chad; Gillingham, Leah G; Kris-Etherton, Penny; Jones, Peter J H

2017-02-01

Diets high in saturated fat are associated with elevated risk of heart disease. This study estimates the savings in direct (medical care) costs and indirect (job absenteeism) costs in the US from reductions in heart disease associated with substituting monounsaturated fats (MUFA) for saturated fats. A four-part model of the medical care cost savings from avoided heart disease was estimated using data on 247,700 adults from the 2000-2010 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS). The savings from reduced job absenteeism due to avoided heart disease was estimated using a zero-inflated negative binomial model of the number of annual work loss days applied to data on 164,577 adults from the MEPS. Estimated annual savings in medical care expenditures resulting from a switch from a diet high in saturated fat to a high-MUFA diet totaled ∼ $25.7 billion (95% CI = $6.0-$45.4 billion) in 2010, with private insurance plans saving $7.9 billion (95% CI = $1.8-$14.0 billion), Medicare saving $9.4 billion (95% CI = $2.1-$16.7 billion), Medicaid saving $1.4 billion (95% CI = $0.2-$2.5 billion), and patients saving $2.2 billion (95% CI = $0.5-$3.8 billion). The annual savings in terms of reduced job absenteeism ranges from a lower bound of $600 million (95% CI = $100 million to $1.0 billion) to an upper bound of $1.2 billion (95% CI = $0.2-$2.1 billion) for 2010. The data cover only the non-institutionalized population. Decreased costs due to any decreases in the severity of heart disease are not included. Cost savings do not include any reduction in informal care at home. Diets high in saturated fat impose substantial medical care costs and job absenteeism costs, and substantial savings could be achieved by substituting MUFA for saturated fat.

The Pathogen- and Incidence-Based DALY Approach: An Appropriated Methodology for Estimating the Burden of Infectious Diseases

PubMed Central

Mangen, Marie-Josée J.; Plass, Dietrich; Havelaar, Arie H.; Gibbons, Cheryl L.; Cassini, Alessandro; Mühlberger, Nikolai; van Lier, Alies; Haagsma, Juanita A.; Brooke, R. John; Lai, Taavi; de Waure, Chiara; Kramarz, Piotr; Kretzschmar, Mirjam E. E.

2013-01-01

In 2009, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control initiated the ‘Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe (BCoDE)’ project to generate evidence-based and comparable burden-of-disease estimates of infectious diseases in Europe. The burden-of-disease metric used was the Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY), composed of years of life lost due to premature death (YLL) and due to disability (YLD). To better represent infectious diseases, a pathogen-based approach was used linking incident cases to sequelae through outcome trees. Health outcomes were included if an evidence-based causal relationship between infection and outcome was established. Life expectancy and disability weights were taken from the Global Burden of Disease Study and alternative studies. Disease progression parameters were based on literature. Country-specific incidence was based on surveillance data corrected for underestimation. Non-typhoidal Salmonella spp. and Campylobacter spp. were used for illustration. Using the incidence- and pathogen-based DALY approach the total burden for Salmonella spp. and Campylobacter spp. was estimated at 730 DALYs and at 1,780 DALYs per year in the Netherlands (average of 2005–2007). Sequelae accounted for 56% and 82% of the total burden of Salmonella spp. and Campylobacter spp., respectively. The incidence- and pathogen-based DALY methodology allows in the case of infectious diseases a more comprehensive calculation of the disease burden as subsequent sequelae are fully taken into account. Not considering subsequent sequelae would strongly underestimate the burden of infectious diseases. Estimates can be used to support prioritisation and comparison of infectious diseases and other health conditions, both within a country and between countries. PMID:24278167

Economic and Disease Burden of Dengue in Mexico

PubMed Central

Undurraga, Eduardo A.; Betancourt-Cravioto, Miguel; Ramos-Castañeda, José; Martínez-Vega, Ruth; Méndez-Galván, Jorge; Gubler, Duane J.; Guzmán, María G.; Halstead, Scott B.; Harris, Eva; Kuri-Morales, Pablo; Tapia-Conyer, Roberto; Shepard, Donald S.

2015-01-01

Background Dengue imposes a substantial economic and disease burden in most tropical and subtropical countries. Dengue incidence and severity have dramatically increased in Mexico during the past decades. Having objective and comparable estimates of the economic burden of dengue is essential to inform health policy, increase disease awareness, and assess the impact of dengue prevention and control technologies. Methods and Findings We estimated the annual economic and disease burden of dengue in Mexico for the years 2010–2011. We merged multiple data sources, including a prospective cohort study; patient interviews and macro-costing from major hospitals; surveillance, budget, and health data from the Ministry of Health; WHO cost estimates; and available literature. We conducted a probabilistic sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulations to derive 95% certainty levels (CL) for our estimates. Results suggest that Mexico had about 139,000 (95%CL: 128,000–253,000) symptomatic and 119 (95%CL: 75–171) fatal dengue episodes annually on average (2010–2011), compared to an average of 30,941 symptomatic and 59 fatal dengue episodes reported. The annual cost, including surveillance and vector control, was US$170 (95%CL: 151–292) million, or $1.56 (95%CL: 1.38–2.68) per capita, comparable to other countries in the region. Of this, $87 (95%CL: 87–209) million or $0.80 per capita (95%CL: 0.62–1.12) corresponds to illness. Annual disease burden averaged 65 (95%CL: 36–99) disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) per million population. Inclusion of long-term sequelae, co-morbidities, impact on tourism, and health system disruption during outbreaks would further increase estimated economic and disease burden. Conclusion With this study, Mexico joins Panama, Puerto Rico, Nicaragua, and Thailand as the only countries or areas worldwide with comprehensive (illness and preventive) empirical estimates of dengue burden. Burden varies annually; during an outbreak, dengue burden may be significantly higher than that of the pre-vaccine level of rotavirus diarrhea. In sum, Mexico’s potential economic benefits from dengue control would be substantial. PMID:25786225

An approach to and web-based tool for infectious disease outbreak intervention analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Daughton, Ashlynn R.; Generous, Nicholas; Priedhorsky, Reid

Infectious diseases are a leading cause of death globally. Decisions surrounding how to control an infectious disease outbreak currently rely on a subjective process involving surveillance and expert opinion. However, there are many situations where neither may be available. Modeling can fill gaps in the decision making process by using available data to provide quantitative estimates of outbreak trajectories. Effective reduction of the spread of infectious diseases can be achieved through collaboration between the modeling community and public health policy community. However, such collaboration is rare, resulting in a lack of models that meet the needs of the public healthmore » community. Here we show a Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model modified to include control measures that allows parameter ranges, rather than parameter point estimates, and includes a web user interface for broad adoption. We apply the model to three diseases, measles, norovirus and influenza, to show the feasibility of its use and describe a research agenda to further promote interactions between decision makers and the modeling community.« less

An approach to and web-based tool for infectious disease outbreak intervention analysis

DOE PAGES

Daughton, Ashlynn R.; Generous, Nicholas; Priedhorsky, Reid; ...

2017-04-18

Infectious diseases are a leading cause of death globally. Decisions surrounding how to control an infectious disease outbreak currently rely on a subjective process involving surveillance and expert opinion. However, there are many situations where neither may be available. Modeling can fill gaps in the decision making process by using available data to provide quantitative estimates of outbreak trajectories. Effective reduction of the spread of infectious diseases can be achieved through collaboration between the modeling community and public health policy community. However, such collaboration is rare, resulting in a lack of models that meet the needs of the public healthmore » community. Here we show a Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model modified to include control measures that allows parameter ranges, rather than parameter point estimates, and includes a web user interface for broad adoption. We apply the model to three diseases, measles, norovirus and influenza, to show the feasibility of its use and describe a research agenda to further promote interactions between decision makers and the modeling community.« less

Estimates of premorbid ability in a neurodegenerative disease clinic population: comparing the Test of Premorbid Functioning and the Wide Range Achievement Test, 4th Edition.

PubMed

Berg, Jody-Lynn; Durant, January; Banks, Sarah J; Miller, Justin B

2016-05-01

Two frequently used measures to assess premorbid intellectual ability include the Wide Range Achievement Test, 4th Edition Reading Subtest (WRAT-4 READ) and the Test of Premorbid Functioning (TOPF). The present study compared estimates obtained from these measures in a neurodegenerative disease population. Records from 85 referrals seen for neuropsychological evaluation in a neurodegenerative disorders clinic were reviewed. Evaluations included TOPF, WRAT-4 READ, and measures of memory, reasoning, language, and executive functioning. Pairwise correlations and concordance correlation coefficients (CCC) were calculated between raw scores and predicted intelligence estimates. Discrepancy scores were calculated between estimates and data were divided into three groups based on size of standardized discrepancy score: Equal, WRAT-4 READ > TOPF, and TOPF > WRAT-4 READ. analysis of variances compared groups on demographic characteristics and cognitive performance. Despite strong Pearson correlation, CCC between predicted IQ estimates showed poor agreement between measures, with evidence of both fixed and proportional bias. Discrepancies ranged from -24.0 to 22.0 (M = 1.78, SD = 6.65), with TOPF generating higher estimates on average. Individuals performing better on WRAT-4 READ were significantly older (M age = 76.26, SD = 7.53) than those performing similarly on both measures and those performing better on TOPF (F (2, 82) = 7.31, p < .001). All other comparisons between groups on demographic variables and cognitive measures were non-significant. Estimates of premorbid intelligence obtained from the TOPF and WRAT-4 READ have a strong linear relationship, but systematically generate inconsistent estimates in a neurodegenerative disease clinical sample and should not be used interchangeably.

Outcomes following severe hand foot and mouth disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Jones, Eben; Pillay, Timesh D; Liu, Fengfeng; Luo, Li; Bazo-Alvarez, Juan Carlos; Yuan, Chen; Zhao, Shanlu; Chen, Qi; Li, Yu; Liao, Qiaohong; Yu, Hongjie; Rogier van Doorn, H; Sabanathan, Saraswathy

2018-04-20

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) caused by enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) is associated with acute neurological disease in children. This study aimed to estimate the burden of long-term sequelae and death following severe HFMD. This systematic review and meta-analysis pooled all reports from English and Chinese databases including MEDLINE and Wangfang on outbreaks of clinically diagnosed HFMD and/or laboratory-confirmed EV-A71 with at least 7 days' follow-up published between 1st January 1966 and 19th October 2015. Two independent reviewers assessed the literature. We used a random effects meta-analysis to estimate cumulative incidence of neurological sequelae or death. Studies were assessed for methodological and reporting quality. PROSPERO registration number: 10.15124/CRD42015021981. 43 studies were included in the review, and 599 children from 9 studies were included in the primary analysis. Estimated cumulative incidence of death or neurological sequelae at maximum follow up was 19.8% (95% CI:10.2%, 31.3%). Heterogeneity (Iˆ2) was 88.57%, partly accounted for by year of data collection and reporting quality of studies. Incidence by acute disease severity was 0.00% (0.00, 0.00) for grade IIa; 17.0% (7.9, 28.2) for grade IIb/III; 81.6% (65.1, 94.5) for grade IV (p = 0.00) disease. HFMD with neurological involvement is associated with a substantial burden of long-term neurological sequelae. Grade of acute disease severity was a strong predictor of outcome. Strengths of this study include its bilingual approach and clinical applicability. Future prospective and interventional studies must use rigorous methodology to assess long-term outcomes in survivors. There was no specific funding for this study. See below for researcher funding. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

The Role of Inflammation in Development of Alzheimer’s Disease Following Repetitive Head Trauma

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-08-01

Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including...collection of information . Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information , including suggestions for...reducing this burden to Department of Defense, Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports (0704-0188

Microbial pathogens in raw pork, chicken, and beef: benefit estimates for control using irradiation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Roberts, T.

1985-12-01

Various control procedures have been suggested for reducing foodborne infectious diseases. Receiving considerable attention is irradiation. This report estimates the medical and wage (or productivity) benefits associated with prevention of five human diseases transmitted by beef, pork, and chicken. (These diseases can also be transmitted by other vectors, such as eggs, milk, and pets. But these sources are not included in the analysis.) All of these foodborne infectious diseases - salmonellosis, campylobacteriosis, trichinosis, tapeworm, and toxoplasmosis - could be significantly reduced by irradiating meat and poultry. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has just approved irradiation of pork to preventmore » trichinosis (50FR 29658-59) and is considering approval of irradiation of chicken to kill Salmonella. 22 references.« less

[Inpatients days in patients with respiratory diseases and periodontal disease].

PubMed

Fernández-Plata, Rosario; Olmedo-Torres, Daniel; Martínez-Briseño, David; González-Cruz, Herminia; Casa-Medina, Guillermo; García-Sancho, Cecilia

2017-01-01

Periodontal disease is a chronic inflammatory gingival process that has been associated with the severity of respiratory diseases. In Mexico a prevalence of 78% was found in population with social security and > 60 years old. The aim of this study is to establish the association between periodontal disease and respiratory diseases according to the inpatient days. A cross-sectional study was conducted from January to December 2011. We included hospitalized patients, ≥ 18 years of age, without sedation or intubated. A dentist classified patients into two groups according to the severity of the periodontal disease: mild-to-moderate and severe. We estimated medians of inpatient days by disease and severity. Negative binomial models were adjusted to estimate incidence rate ratios and predicted inpatient days. 3,059 patients were enrolled. The median of observed and predicted inpatient days was higher in the group of severe periodontal disease (p < 0.05). Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, tuberculosis, and influenza had the highest incidence rates ratios of periodontal disease (p < 0.05). The severity of periodontal disease is positively -associated with inpatient days of patients with respiratory diseases.

Operative and consultative proportions of neurosurgical disease worldwide: estimation from the surgeon perspective.

PubMed

Dewan, Michael C; Rattani, Abbas; Baticulon, Ronnie E; Faruque, Serena; Johnson, Walter D; Dempsey, Robert J; Haglund, Michael M; Alkire, Blake C; Park, Kee B; Warf, Benjamin C; Shrime, Mark G

2018-05-11

OBJECTIVE The global magnitude of neurosurgical disease is unknown. The authors sought to estimate the surgical and consultative proportion of diseases commonly encountered by neurosurgeons, as well as surgeon case volume and perceived workload. METHODS An electronic survey was sent to 193 neurosurgeons previously identified via a global surgeon mapping initiative. The survey consisted of three sections aimed at quantifying surgical incidence of neurological disease, consultation incidence, and surgeon demographic data. Surgeons were asked to estimate the proportion of 11 neurological disorders that, in an ideal world, would indicate either neurosurgical operation or neurosurgical consultation. Respondent surgeons indicated their confidence level in each estimate. Demographic and surgical practice characteristics-including case volume and perceived workload-were also captured. RESULTS Eighty-five neurosurgeons from 57 countries, representing all WHO regions and World Bank income levels, completed the survey. Neurological conditions estimated to warrant neurosurgical consultation with the highest frequency were brain tumors (96%), spinal tumors (95%), hydrocephalus (94%), and neural tube defects (92%), whereas stroke (54%), central nervous system infection (58%), and epilepsy (40%) carried the lowest frequency. Similarly, surgery was deemed necessary for an average of 88% cases of hydrocephalus, 82% of spinal tumors and neural tube defects, and 78% of brain tumors. Degenerative spine disease (42%), stroke (31%), and epilepsy (24%) were found to warrant surgical intervention less frequently. Confidence levels were consistently high among respondents (lower quartile > 70/100 for 90% of questions), and estimates did not vary significantly across WHO regions or among income levels. Surgeons reported performing a mean of 245 cases annually (median 190). On a 100-point scale indicating a surgeon's perceived workload (0-not busy, 100-overworked), respondents selected a mean workload of 75 (median 79). CONCLUSIONS With a high level of confidence and strong concordance, neurosurgeons estimated that the vast majority of patients with central nervous system tumors, hydrocephalus, or neural tube defects mandate neurosurgical involvement. A significant proportion of other common neurological diseases, such as traumatic brain and spinal injury, vascular anomalies, and degenerative spine disease, demand the attention of a neurosurgeon-whether via operative intervention or expert counsel. These estimates facilitate measurement of the expected annual volume of neurosurgical disease globally.

The 2006 William Feinberg lecture: shifting the paradigm from stroke to global vascular risk estimation.

PubMed

Sacco, Ralph L

2007-06-01

By the year 2010, it is estimated that 18.1 million people worldwide will die annually because of cardiovascular diseases and stroke. "Global vascular risk" more broadly includes the multiple overlapping disease silos of stroke, myocardial infarction, peripheral arterial disease, and vascular death. Estimation of global vascular risk requires consideration of a variety of variables including demographics, environmental behaviors, and risk factors. Data from multiple studies suggest continuous linear relationships between the physiological vascular risk modulators of blood pressure, lipids, and blood glucose rather than treating these conditions as categorical risk factors. Constellations of risk factors may be more relevant than individual categorical components. Exciting work with novel risk factors may also have predictive value in estimates of global vascular risk. Advances in imaging have led to the measurement of subclinical conditions such as carotid intima-media thickness and subclinical brain conditions such as white matter hyperintensities and silent infarcts. These subclinical measurements may be intermediate stages in the transition from asymptomatic to symptomatic vascular events, appear to be associated with the fundamental vascular risk factors, and represent opportunities to more precisely quantitate disease progression. The expansion of studies in molecular epidemiology and detection of genetic markers underlying vascular risks also promises to extend our precision of global vascular risk estimation. Global vascular risk estimation will require quantitative methods that bundle these multi-dimensional data into more precise estimates of future risk. The power of genetic information coupled with data on demographics, risk-inducing behaviors, vascular risk modulators, biomarkers, and measures of subclinical conditions should provide the most realistic approximation of an individual's future global vascular risk. The ultimate public health benefit, however, will depend on not only identification of global vascular risk but also the realization that we can modify this risk and prove the prediction models wrong.

Heritability of Measures of Kidney Disease Among Zuni Indians: The Zuni Kidney Project

PubMed Central

MacCluer, Jean W.; Scavini, Marina; Shah, Vallabh O.; Cole, Shelley A.; Laston, Sandra L.; Voruganti, V. Saroja; Paine, Susan S.; Eaton, Alfred J.; Comuzzie, Anthony G.; Tentori, Francesca; Pathak, Dorothy R.; Bobelu, Arlene; Bobelu, Jeanette; Ghahate, Donica; Waikaniwa, Mildred; Zager, Philip G.

2010-01-01

Background The long-term goal of the GKDZI (Genetics of Kidney Disease in Zuni Indians) Study is to identify genes, environmental factors, and genetic-environmental interactions that modulate susceptibility to renal disease and intermediate phenotypes. Study Design A community-based participatory research approach was used to recruit family members of individuals with kidney disease. Setting & Participants The study was conducted in the Zuni Indians, a small endogamous tribe located in rural New Mexico. We recruited members of extended families, ascertained through a proband with kidney disease and at least 1 sibling with kidney disease. 821 participants were recruited, comprising 7,702 relative pairs. Predictor Outcomes & Measurements Urine albumin-creatinine ratio (UACR) and hematuria were determined in 3 urine samples and expressed as a true ratio. Glomerular filtration rate (GFR) was estimated using the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) Study equation modified for American Indians. Probands were considered to have kidney disease if UACR was ≥0.2 in 2 or more of 3 spot urine samples or estimated GFR was decreased according to the CRIC (Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort) Study criteria. Results Kidney disease was identified in 192 participants (23.4%). There were significant heritabilities for estimated GFR, UACR, serum creatinine, serum urea nitrogen, and uric acid and a variety of phenotypes related to obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease. There were significant genetic correlations of some kidney-related phenotypes with these other phenotypes. Limitations Limitations include absence of renal biopsy, possible misclassification bias, lack of direct GFR measurements, and failure to include all possible environmental interactions. Conclusions Many phenotypes related to kidney disease showed significant heritabilities in Zuni Indians, and there were significant genetic correlations with phenotypes related to obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease. The study design serves as a paradigm for the conduct of research in relatively isolated, endogamous, underserved populations. PMID:20646805

Estimation of post-test probabilities by residents: Bayesian reasoning versus heuristics?

PubMed

Hall, Stacey; Phang, Sen Han; Schaefer, Jeffrey P; Ghali, William; Wright, Bruce; McLaughlin, Kevin

2014-08-01

Although the process of diagnosing invariably begins with a heuristic, we encourage our learners to support their diagnoses by analytical cognitive processes, such as Bayesian reasoning, in an attempt to mitigate the effects of heuristics on diagnosing. There are, however, limited data on the use ± impact of Bayesian reasoning on the accuracy of disease probability estimates. In this study our objective was to explore whether Internal Medicine residents use a Bayesian process to estimate disease probabilities by comparing their disease probability estimates to literature-derived Bayesian post-test probabilities. We gave 35 Internal Medicine residents four clinical vignettes in the form of a referral letter and asked them to estimate the post-test probability of the target condition in each case. We then compared these to literature-derived probabilities. For each vignette the estimated probability was significantly different from the literature-derived probability. For the two cases with low literature-derived probability our participants significantly overestimated the probability of these target conditions being the correct diagnosis, whereas for the two cases with high literature-derived probability the estimated probability was significantly lower than the calculated value. Our results suggest that residents generate inaccurate post-test probability estimates. Possible explanations for this include ineffective application of Bayesian reasoning, attribute substitution whereby a complex cognitive task is replaced by an easier one (e.g., a heuristic), or systematic rater bias, such as central tendency bias. Further studies are needed to identify the reasons for inaccuracy of disease probability estimates and to explore ways of improving accuracy.

Current status of Marek's disease in the united states and worldwide

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A questionnaire was widely distributed in 2011 to estimate the global prevalence of Marek’s disease and gain a better understanding of current control strategies and future concerns. A total of 104 questionnaires were returned representing 108 countries from sources including national branch secret...

World Health Organization Estimates of the Relative Contributions of Food to the Burden of Disease Due to Selected Foodborne Hazards: A Structured Expert Elicitation

PubMed Central

Hald, Tine; Aspinall, Willy; Devleesschauwer, Brecht; Cooke, Roger; Corrigan, Tim; Havelaar, Arie H.; Gibb, Herman J.; Torgerson, Paul R.; Kirk, Martyn D.; Angulo, Fred J.; Lake, Robin J.; Speybroeck, Niko; Hoffmann, Sandra

2016-01-01

Background The Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG) was established in 2007 by the World Health Organization (WHO) to estimate the global burden of foodborne diseases (FBDs). This estimation is complicated because most of the hazards causing FBD are not transmitted solely by food; most have several potential exposure routes consisting of transmission from animals, by humans, and via environmental routes including water. This paper describes an expert elicitation study conducted by the FERG Source Attribution Task Force to estimate the relative contribution of food to the global burden of diseases commonly transmitted through the consumption of food. Methods and Findings We applied structured expert judgment using Cooke’s Classical Model to obtain estimates for 14 subregions for the relative contributions of different transmission pathways for eleven diarrheal diseases, seven other infectious diseases and one chemical (lead). Experts were identified through international networks followed by social network sampling. Final selection of experts was based on their experience including international working experience. Enrolled experts were scored on their ability to judge uncertainty accurately and informatively using a series of subject-matter specific ‘seed’ questions whose answers are unknown to the experts at the time they are interviewed. Trained facilitators elicited the 5th, and 50th and 95th percentile responses to seed questions through telephone interviews. Cooke’s Classical Model uses responses to the seed questions to weigh and aggregate expert responses. After this interview, the experts were asked to provide 5th, 50th, and 95th percentile estimates for the ‘target’ questions regarding disease transmission routes. A total of 72 experts were enrolled in the study. Ten panels were global, meaning that the experts should provide estimates for all 14 subregions, whereas the nine panels were subregional, with experts providing estimates for one or more subregions, depending on their experience in the region. The size of the 19 hazard-specific panels ranged from 6 to 15 persons with several experts serving on more than one panel. Pathogens with animal reservoirs (e.g. non-typhoidal Salmonella spp. and Toxoplasma gondii) were in general assessed by the experts to have a higher proportion of illnesses attributable to food than pathogens with mainly a human reservoir, where human-to-human transmission (e.g. Shigella spp. and Norovirus) or waterborne transmission (e.g. Salmonella Typhi and Vibrio cholerae) were judged to dominate. For many pathogens, the foodborne route was assessed relatively more important in developed subregions than in developing subregions. The main exposure routes for lead varied across subregions, with the foodborne route being assessed most important only in two subregions of the European region. Conclusions For the first time, we present worldwide estimates of the proportion of specific diseases attributable to food and other major transmission routes. These findings are essential for global burden of FBD estimates. While gaps exist, we believe the estimates presented here are the best current source of guidance to support decision makers when allocating resources for control and intervention, and for future research initiatives. PMID:26784029

World Health Organization Estimates of the Relative Contributions of Food to the Burden of Disease Due to Selected Foodborne Hazards: A Structured Expert Elicitation.

PubMed

Hald, Tine; Aspinall, Willy; Devleesschauwer, Brecht; Cooke, Roger; Corrigan, Tim; Havelaar, Arie H; Gibb, Herman J; Torgerson, Paul R; Kirk, Martyn D; Angulo, Fred J; Lake, Robin J; Speybroeck, Niko; Hoffmann, Sandra

2016-01-01

The Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG) was established in 2007 by the World Health Organization (WHO) to estimate the global burden of foodborne diseases (FBDs). This estimation is complicated because most of the hazards causing FBD are not transmitted solely by food; most have several potential exposure routes consisting of transmission from animals, by humans, and via environmental routes including water. This paper describes an expert elicitation study conducted by the FERG Source Attribution Task Force to estimate the relative contribution of food to the global burden of diseases commonly transmitted through the consumption of food. We applied structured expert judgment using Cooke's Classical Model to obtain estimates for 14 subregions for the relative contributions of different transmission pathways for eleven diarrheal diseases, seven other infectious diseases and one chemical (lead). Experts were identified through international networks followed by social network sampling. Final selection of experts was based on their experience including international working experience. Enrolled experts were scored on their ability to judge uncertainty accurately and informatively using a series of subject-matter specific 'seed' questions whose answers are unknown to the experts at the time they are interviewed. Trained facilitators elicited the 5th, and 50th and 95th percentile responses to seed questions through telephone interviews. Cooke's Classical Model uses responses to the seed questions to weigh and aggregate expert responses. After this interview, the experts were asked to provide 5th, 50th, and 95th percentile estimates for the 'target' questions regarding disease transmission routes. A total of 72 experts were enrolled in the study. Ten panels were global, meaning that the experts should provide estimates for all 14 subregions, whereas the nine panels were subregional, with experts providing estimates for one or more subregions, depending on their experience in the region. The size of the 19 hazard-specific panels ranged from 6 to 15 persons with several experts serving on more than one panel. Pathogens with animal reservoirs (e.g. non-typhoidal Salmonella spp. and Toxoplasma gondii) were in general assessed by the experts to have a higher proportion of illnesses attributable to food than pathogens with mainly a human reservoir, where human-to-human transmission (e.g. Shigella spp. and Norovirus) or waterborne transmission (e.g. Salmonella Typhi and Vibrio cholerae) were judged to dominate. For many pathogens, the foodborne route was assessed relatively more important in developed subregions than in developing subregions. The main exposure routes for lead varied across subregions, with the foodborne route being assessed most important only in two subregions of the European region. For the first time, we present worldwide estimates of the proportion of specific diseases attributable to food and other major transmission routes. These findings are essential for global burden of FBD estimates. While gaps exist, we believe the estimates presented here are the best current source of guidance to support decision makers when allocating resources for control and intervention, and for future research initiatives.

Burden of Six Healthcare-Associated Infections on European Population Health: Estimating Incidence-Based Disability-Adjusted Life Years through a Population Prevalence-Based Modelling Study

PubMed Central

Eckmanns, Tim; Abu Sin, Muna; Ducomble, Tanja; Harder, Thomas; Sixtensson, Madlen; Velasco, Edward; Weiß, Bettina; Kramarz, Piotr; Monnet, Dominique L.; Kretzschmar, Mirjam E.; Suetens, Carl

2016-01-01

Background Estimating the burden of healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) compared to other communicable diseases is an ongoing challenge given the need for good quality data on the incidence of these infections and the involved comorbidities. Based on the methodology of the Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe (BCoDE) project and 2011–2012 data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) point prevalence survey (PPS) of HAIs and antimicrobial use in European acute care hospitals, we estimated the burden of six common HAIs. Methods and Findings The included HAIs were healthcare-associated pneumonia (HAP), healthcare-associated urinary tract infection (HA UTI), surgical site infection (SSI), healthcare-associated Clostridium difficile infection (HA CDI), healthcare-associated neonatal sepsis, and healthcare-associated primary bloodstream infection (HA primary BSI). The burden of these HAIs was measured in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Evidence relating to the disease progression pathway of each type of HAI was collected through systematic literature reviews, in order to estimate the risks attributable to HAIs. For each of the six HAIs, gender and age group prevalence from the ECDC PPS was converted into incidence rates by applying the Rhame and Sudderth formula. We adjusted for reduced life expectancy within the hospital population using three severity groups based on McCabe score data from the ECDC PPS. We estimated that 2,609,911 new cases of HAI occur every year in the European Union and European Economic Area (EU/EEA). The cumulative burden of the six HAIs was estimated at 501 DALYs per 100,000 general population each year in EU/EEA. HAP and HA primary BSI were associated with the highest burden and represented more than 60% of the total burden, with 169 and 145 DALYs per 100,000 total population, respectively. HA UTI, SSI, HA CDI, and HA primary BSI ranked as the third to sixth syndromes in terms of burden of disease. HAP and HA primary BSI were associated with the highest burden because of their high severity. The cumulative burden of the six HAIs was higher than the total burden of all other 32 communicable diseases included in the BCoDE 2009–2013 study. The main limitations of the study are the variability in the parameter estimates, in particular the disease models’ case fatalities, and the use of the Rhame and Sudderth formula for estimating incident number of cases from prevalence data. Conclusions We estimated the EU/EEA burden of HAIs in DALYs in 2011–2012 using a transparent and evidence-based approach that allows for combining estimates of morbidity and of mortality in order to compare with other diseases and to inform a comprehensive ranking suitable for prioritization. Our results highlight the high burden of HAIs and the need for increased efforts for their prevention and control. Furthermore, our model should allow for estimations of the potential benefit of preventive measures on the burden of HAIs in the EU/EEA. PMID:27755545

Mortality, hospital days and expenditures attributable to ambient air pollution from particulate matter in Israel.

PubMed

Ginsberg, Gary M; Kaliner, Ehud; Grotto, Itamar

2016-01-01

Worldwide, ambient air pollution accounts for around 3.7 million deaths annually. Measuring the burden of disease is important not just for advocacy but also is a first step towards carrying out a full cost-utility analysis in order to prioritise technological interventions that are available to reduce air pollution (and subsequent morbidity and mortality) from industrial, power generating and vehicular sources. We calculated the average national exposure to particulate matter particles less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in diameter by weighting readings from 52 (non-roadside) monitoring stations by the population of the catchment area around the station. The PM2.5 exposure level was then multiplied by the gender and cause specific (Acute Lower Respiratory Infections, Asthma, Circulatory Diseases, Coronary Heart Failure, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease, Diabetes, Ischemic Heart Disease, Lung Cancer, Low Birth Weight, Respiratory Diseases and Stroke) relative risks and the national age, cause and gender specific mortality (and hospital utilisation which included neuro-degenerative disorders) rates to arrive at the estimated mortality and hospital days attributable to ambient PM2.5 pollution in Israel in 2015. We utilised a WHO spread-sheet model, which was expanded to include relative risks (based on more recent meta-analyses) of sub-sets of other diagnoses in two additional models. Mortality estimates from the three models were 1609, 1908 and 2253 respectively in addition to 184,000, 348,000 and 542,000 days hospitalisation in general hospitals. Total costs from PM2.5 pollution (including premature burial costs) amounted to $544 million, $1030 million and $1749 million respectively (or 0.18 %, 0.35 % and 0.59 % of GNP). Subject to the caveat that our estimates were based on a limited number of non-randomly sited stations exposure data. The mortality, morbidity and monetary burden of disease attributable to air pollution from particulate matter in Israel is of sufficient magnitude to warrant the consideration of and prioritisation of technological interventions that are available to reduce air pollution from industrial, power generating and vehicular sources. The accuracy of our burden estimates would be improved if more precise estimates of population exposure were to become available in the future.

The economic impact of pig-associated parasitic zoonosis in Northern Lao PDR.

PubMed

Choudhury, Adnan Ali Khan; Conlan, James V; Racloz, Vanessa Nadine; Reid, Simon Andrew; Blacksell, Stuart D; Fenwick, Stanley G; Thompson, Andrew R C; Khamlome, Boualam; Vongxay, Khamphouth; Whittaker, Maxine

2013-03-01

The parasitic zoonoses human cysticercosis (Taenia solium), taeniasis (other Taenia species) and trichinellosis (Trichinella species) are endemic in the Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR). This study was designed to quantify the economic burden pig-associated zoonotic disease pose in Lao PDR. In particular, the analysis included estimation of the losses in the pork industry as well as losses due to human illness and lost productivity. A Markov-probability based decision-tree model was chosen to form the basis of the calculations to estimate the economic and public health impacts of taeniasis, trichinellosis and cysticercosis. Two different decision trees were run simultaneously on the model's human cohort. A third decision tree simulated the potential impacts on pig production. The human capital method was used to estimate productivity loss. The results found varied significantly depending on the rate of hospitalisation due to neurocysticerosis. This study is the first systematic estimate of the economic impact of pig-associated zoonotic diseases in Lao PDR that demonstrates the significance of the diseases in that country.

Coding accuracy for Parkinson's disease hospital admissions: implications for healthcare planning in the UK.

PubMed

Muzerengi, S; Rick, C; Begaj, I; Ives, N; Evison, F; Woolley, R L; Clarke, C E

2017-05-01

Hospital Episode Statistics data are used for healthcare planning and hospital reimbursements. Reliability of these data is dependent on the accuracy of individual hospitals reporting Secondary Uses Service (SUS) which includes hospitalisation. The number and coding accuracy for Parkinson's disease hospital admissions at a tertiary centre in Birmingham was assessed. Retrospective, routine-data-based study. A retrospective electronic database search for all Parkinson's disease patients admitted to the tertiary hospital over a 4-year period (2009-2013) was performed on the SUS database using International Classification of Disease codes, and on the local inpatient electronic prescription database, Prescription and Information Communications System, using medication prescriptions. Capture-recapture methods were used to estimate the number of patients and admissions missed by both databases. From the two databases, between July 2009 and June 2013, 1068 patients with Parkinson's disease accounted for 1999 admissions. During these admissions, the Parkinson's disease was coded as a primary or secondary diagnosis. Ninety-one percent of these admissions were recorded on the SUS database. Capture-recapture methods estimated that the number of Parkinson's disease patients admitted during this period was 1127 patients (95% confidence interval: 1107-1146). A supplementary search of both SUS and Prescription and Information Communications System was undertaken using the hospital numbers of these 1068 patients. This identified another 479 admissions. SUS database under-estimated Parkinson's disease admissions by 27% during the study period. The accuracy of disease coding is critical for healthcare policy planning and must be improved. If the under-reporting of Parkinson's disease admissions on the SUS database is repeated nationally, expenditure on Parkinson's disease admissions in England is under-estimated by approximately £61 million per year. Copyright © 2016 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Economic losses and burden of disease by medical conditions in Norway.

PubMed

Kinge, Jonas Minet; Sælensminde, Kjartan; Dieleman, Joseph; Vollset, Stein Emil; Norheim, Ole Frithjof

2017-06-01

We explore the correlation between disease specific estimates of economic losses and the burden of disease. This is based on data for Norway in 2013 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) project and the Norwegian Directorate of Health. The diagnostic categories were equivalent to the ICD-10 chapters. Mental disorders topped the list of the costliest conditions in Norway in 2013, and musculoskeletal disorders caused the highest production loss, while neoplasms caused the greatest burden in terms of DALYs. There was a positive and significant association between economic losses and burden of disease. Neoplasms, circulatory diseases, mental and musculoskeletal disorders all contributed to large health care expenditures. Non-fatal conditions with a high prevalence in working populations, like musculoskeletal and mental disorders, caused the largest production loss, while fatal conditions such as neoplasms and circulatory disease did not, since they occur mostly at old age. The magnitude of the production loss varied with the estimation method. The estimations presented in this study did not include reductions in future consumption, by net-recipients, due to premature deaths. Non-fatal diseases are thus even more burdensome, relative to fatal diseases, than the production loss in this study suggests. Hence, ignoring production losses may underestimate the economic losses from chronic diseases in countries with an epidemiological profile similar to Norway. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The effect of a resilience improvement program for adolescents with complex congenital heart disease.

PubMed

Lee, Sunhee; Lee, Junga; Choi, Jae Young

2017-04-01

Adolescents with congenital heart disease need to increase their resilience in the face of challenges in order to preserve their health and quality of life. This study aimed to develop a resilience improvement program for adolescents with congenital heart disease and also to evaluate any change in resilience and quality of life as a measure of the effectiveness of the resilience improvement programs. A nonequivalent control group pretest-posttest study was designed. Twenty-five adolescents who attended the first resilience improvement program were included in the experimental group, and 31 adolescents who took part in the second program were placed in the control group. Adolescents with congenital heart disease completed a self-report questionnaire on three separate occasions: the pretest, the first posttest and the second posttest. The self-report questionnaire included general characteristics and instruments to measure resilience and quality of life. For the longitudinal analysis, generalized estimating equations were used to evaluate the difference in the estimated average trajectories of resilience and quality of life changes. Independent predictors of resilience improvement in adolescents with congenital heart disease were the experimental group ( p=0.02) and middle and high school students ( p=0.02). Quality of life was not associated with membership in the experimental group. However, males scored higher than females on quality of life measures ( p=0.02). It is essential for healthcare providers to apply various programs, including those targeted at accepting illness, improving autonomy and independently managing disease, to adolescents with congenital heart disease.

A rigorous statistical framework for spatio-temporal pollution prediction and estimation of its long-term impact on health.

PubMed

Lee, Duncan; Mukhopadhyay, Sabyasachi; Rushworth, Alastair; Sahu, Sujit K

2017-04-01

In the United Kingdom, air pollution is linked to around 40000 premature deaths each year, but estimating its health effects is challenging in a spatio-temporal study. The challenges include spatial misalignment between the pollution and disease data; uncertainty in the estimated pollution surface; and complex residual spatio-temporal autocorrelation in the disease data. This article develops a two-stage model that addresses these issues. The first stage is a spatio-temporal fusion model linking modeled and measured pollution data, while the second stage links these predictions to the disease data. The methodology is motivated by a new five-year study investigating the effects of multiple pollutants on respiratory hospitalizations in England between 2007 and 2011, using pollution and disease data relating to local and unitary authorities on a monthly time scale. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The economic burden of not meeting food recommendations in Canada: The cost of doing nothing.

PubMed

Lieffers, Jessica R L; Ekwaru, John Paul; Ohinmaa, Arto; Veugelers, Paul J

2018-01-01

Few studies have estimated the economic burden of chronic diseases (e.g., type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, cancers) attributable to unhealthy eating. In this study, we estimated the economic burden of chronic disease attributable to not meeting Canadian food recommendations. We first obtained chronic disease risk estimates for intakes of both protective (1. vegetables; 2. fruit; 3. whole grains; 4. milk; 5. nuts and seeds) and harmful (6. processed meat; 7. red meat; 8. sugar-sweetened beverages) foods from the Global Burden of Disease Study, and food intakes from the 2004 Canadian Community Health Survey 24-hour dietary recalls (n = 33,932 respondents). We then calculated population attributable fractions (PAFs) for all relevant food-chronic disease combinations by age and sex groups. These PAFs were then mathematically combined for each disease for each age and sex group. We then estimated attributable costs by multiplying these combined PAFs with estimated 2014 annual direct health care (hospital, drug, physician) and indirect (human capital approach) costs for each disease. We found that not meeting recommendations for the eight foods was responsible for CAD$13.8 billion/year (direct health care: CAD$5.1 billion, indirect: CAD$8.7 billion). Nuts and seeds and whole grains were the top cost contributors rather than vegetables and fruit. Our findings suggest that unhealthy eating constitutes a tremendous economic burden to Canada that is similar in magnitude to the burden of smoking and larger than that of physical inactivity which were estimated using similar approaches. A status quo in promotion of healthy eating will allow this burden to continue. Interventions to reduce the health and economic burden of unhealthy eating in Canada may be more effective if they are broad in focus and include promotion of nuts and seeds and whole grains along with vegetables and fruit rather than have a narrow focus such as primarily on vegetables and fruit.

Identifying Local Hotspots of Pediatric Chronic Diseases Using Emergency Department Surveillance

PubMed Central

Lee, David C.; Yi, Stella S.; Fong, Hiu-Fai; Athens, Jessica K.; Ravenell, Joseph E.; Sevick, Mary Ann; Wall, Stephen P.; Elbel, Brian

2016-01-01

Objective To use novel geographic methods and large-scale claims data to identify the local distribution of pediatric chronic diseases in New York City. Methods Using a 2009 all-payer emergency claims database, we identified the proportion of unique children aged 0 to 17 with diagnosis codes for specific medical and psychiatric conditions. As a proof of concept, we compared these prevalence estimates to traditional health surveys and registry data using the most geographically granular data available. In addition, we used home addresses to map local variation in pediatric disease burden. Results We identified 549,547 New York City children who visited an emergency department at least once in 2009. Though our sample included more publicly insured and uninsured children, we found moderate to strong correlations of prevalence estimates when compared to health surveys and registry data at pre-specified geographic levels. Strongest correlations were found for asthma and mental health conditions by county among younger children (0.88, p=0.05 and 0.99, p<0.01, respectively). Moderate correlations by neighborhood were identified for obesity and cancer (0.53 and 0.54, p<0.01). Among adolescents, correlations by health districts were strong for obesity (0.95, p=0.05), and depression estimates had a non-significant, but strong negative correlation with suicide attempts (−0.88, p=0.12). Using SaTScan, we also identified local hotspots of pediatric chronic disease. Conclusions For conditions easily identified in claims data, emergency department surveillance may help estimate pediatric chronic disease prevalence with higher geographic resolution. More studies are needed to investigate limitations of these methods and assess reliability of local disease estimates. What’s New This study demonstrated how emergency department surveillance may improve estimates of pediatric disease prevalence with higher geographic resolution. We identified 29% of New York City children with a single year of data and identified local hotspots of pediatric chronic diseases. PMID:28385326

Informal Caregivers: Communication and Decision Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Whitlatch, Carol

2008-01-01

It is estimated that 13 million to 15 million adults in the United States have chronic conditions that impair cognitive function, such as Alzheimer's disease, stroke, Parkinson's disease, and traumatic brain injury. The growing number of people with chronic conditions that include cognitive impairment and the family members who assist them face…

Neonatal Outcomes and Birth Weight in Pregnancies Complicated by Maternal Thyroid Disease

PubMed Central

Männistö, Tuija; Mendola, Pauline; Reddy, Uma; Laughon, S. Katherine

2013-01-01

Maternal hypothyroidism has previously been shown to increase risk for neonatal intensive care treatment, but otherwise the association between thyroid diseases and neonatal morbidity is understudied. The Consortium on Safe Labor, a retrospective cohort (2002–2008), included 223,512 singleton deliveries of which 0.2% had hyperthyroidism, 1.4% primary and 0.1% iatrogenic hypothyroidism, and 1.3% other/unspecified thyroid disease. Logistic regression with generalized estimating equations estimated adjusted odds ratios of adverse outcomes. Intensive care treatment was more common for neonates of women with thyroid disease. Hyperthyroidism and primary hypothyroidism were associated with sepsis, respiratory distress syndrome, transient tachypnea, and apnea. Iatrogenic hypothyroidism was associated with sepsis and neonatal anemia. Hyperthyroidism was also associated with rare outcomes (prevalence, <1%) including cardiomyopathy, retinopathy of prematurity, and neonatal thyroid diseases. Hyperthyroid non-Hispanic black women had higher odds of term infants that weighed <2,500 g, and hypothyroid non-Hispanic white women had higher odds of large-for-gestational-age infants. These analyses were stratified by race/ethnicity due to interaction. Associations were similar in analyses restricted to term infants. In conclusion, thyroid diseases were associated with increased neonatal morbidity. Although we lacked data on treatment during pregnancy, these nationwide data suggest a need for better thyroid disease management to reduce neonatal morbidity. PMID:23666815

GFR Estimation: From Physiology to Public Health

PubMed Central

Levey, Andrew S.; Inker, Lesley A.; Coresh, Josef

2014-01-01

Estimating glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is essential for clinical practice, research, and public health. Appropriate interpretation of estimated GFR (eGFR) requires understanding the principles of physiology, laboratory medicine, epidemiology and biostatistics used in the development and validation of GFR estimating equations. Equations developed in diverse populations are less biased at higher GFR than equations developed in CKD populations and are more appropriate for general use. Equations that include multiple endogenous filtration markers are more precise than equations including a single filtration marker. The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equations are the most accurate GFR estimating equations that have been evaluated in large, diverse populations and are applicable for general clinical use. The 2009 CKD-EPI creatinine equation is more accurate in estimating GFR and prognosis than the 2006 Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) Study equation and provides lower estimates of prevalence of decreased eGFR. It is useful as a “first” test for decreased eGFR and should replace the MDRD Study equation for routine reporting of serum creatinine–based eGFR by clinical laboratories. The 2012 CKD-EPI cystatin C equation is as accurate as the 2009 CKD-EPI creatinine equation in estimating eGFR, does not require specification of race, and may be more accurate in patients with decreased muscle mass. The 2012 CKD-EPI creatinine–cystatin C equation is more accurate than the 2009 CKD-EPI creatinine and 2012 CKD-EPI cystatin C equations and is useful as a confirmatory test for decreased eGFR as determined by an equation based on serum creatinine. Further improvement in GFR estimating equations will require development in more broadly representative populations, including diverse racial and ethnic groups, use of multiple filtration markers, and evaluation using statistical techniques to compare eGFR to “true GFR”. PMID:24485147

Use of Readily Accessible Inflammatory Markers to Predict Diabetic Kidney Disease.

PubMed

Winter, Lauren; Wong, Lydia A; Jerums, George; Seah, Jas-Mine; Clarke, Michele; Tan, Sih Min; Coughlan, Melinda T; MacIsaac, Richard J; Ekinci, Elif I

2018-01-01

Diabetic kidney disease is a common complication of type 1 and type 2 diabetes and is the primary cause of end-stage renal disease in developed countries. Early detection of diabetic kidney disease will facilitate early intervention aimed at reducing the rate of progression to end-stage renal disease. Diabetic kidney disease has been traditionally classified based on the presence of albuminuria. More recently estimated glomerular filtration rate has also been incorporated into the staging of diabetic kidney disease. While albuminuric diabetic kidney disease is well described, the phenotype of non-albuminuric diabetic kidney disease is now widely accepted. An association between markers of inflammation and diabetic kidney disease has previously been demonstrated. Effector molecules of the innate immune system including C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, and tumor necrosis factor-α are increased in patients with diabetic kidney disease. Furthermore, renal infiltration of neutrophils, macrophages, and lymphocytes are observed in renal biopsies of patients with diabetic kidney disease. Similarly high serum neutrophil and low serum lymphocyte counts have been shown to be associated with diabetic kidney disease. The neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio is considered a robust measure of systemic inflammation and is associated with the presence of inflammatory conditions including the metabolic syndrome and insulin resistance. Cross-sectional studies have demonstrated a link between high levels of the above inflammatory biomarkers and diabetic kidney disease. Further longitudinal studies will be required to determine if these readily available inflammatory biomarkers can accurately predict the presence and prognosis of diabetic kidney disease, above and beyond albuminuria, and estimated glomerular filtration rate.

Bias in estimating accuracy of a binary screening test with differential disease verification

PubMed Central

Brinton, John T.; Ringham, Brandy M.; Glueck, Deborah H.

2011-01-01

SUMMARY Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value are typically used to quantify the accuracy of a binary screening test. In some studies it may not be ethical or feasible to obtain definitive disease ascertainment for all subjects using a gold standard test. When a gold standard test cannot be used an imperfect reference test that is less than 100% sensitive and specific may be used instead. In breast cancer screening, for example, follow-up for cancer diagnosis is used as an imperfect reference test for women where it is not possible to obtain gold standard results. This incomplete ascertainment of true disease, or differential disease verification, can result in biased estimates of accuracy. In this paper, we derive the apparent accuracy values for studies subject to differential verification. We determine how the bias is affected by the accuracy of the imperfect reference test, the percent who receive the imperfect reference standard test not receiving the gold standard, the prevalence of the disease, and the correlation between the results for the screening test and the imperfect reference test. It is shown that designs with differential disease verification can yield biased estimates of accuracy. Estimates of sensitivity in cancer screening trials may be substantially biased. However, careful design decisions, including selection of the imperfect reference test, can help to minimize bias. A hypothetical breast cancer screening study is used to illustrate the problem. PMID:21495059

Hygiene and health: systematic review of handwashing practices worldwide and update of health effects.

PubMed

Freeman, Matthew C; Stocks, Meredith E; Cumming, Oliver; Jeandron, Aurelie; Higgins, Julian P T; Wolf, Jennyfer; Prüss-Ustün, Annette; Bonjour, Sophie; Hunter, Paul R; Fewtrell, Lorna; Curtis, Valerie

2014-08-01

To estimate the global prevalence of handwashing with soap and derive a pooled estimate of the effect of hygiene on diarrhoeal diseases, based on a systematic search of the literature. Studies with data on observed rates of handwashing with soap published between 1990 and August 2013 were identified from a systematic search of PubMed, Embase and ISI Web of Knowledge. A separate search was conducted for studies on the effect of hygiene on diarrhoeal disease that included randomised controlled trials, quasi-randomised trials with control group, observational studies using matching techniques and observational studies with a control group where the intervention was well defined. The search used Cochrane Library, Global Health, BIOSIS, PubMed, and Embase databases supplemented with reference lists from previously published systematic reviews to identify studies published between 1970 and August 2013. Results were combined using multilevel modelling for handwashing prevalence and meta-regression for risk estimates. From the 42 studies reporting handwashing prevalence we estimate that approximately 19% of the world population washes hands with soap after contact with excreta (i.e. use of a sanitation facility or contact with children's excreta). Meta-regression of risk estimates suggests that handwashing reduces the risk of diarrhoeal disease by 40% (risk ratio 0.60, 95% CI 0.53-0.68); however, when we included an adjustment for unblinded studies, the effect estimate was reduced to 23% (risk ratio 0.77, 95% CI 0.32-1.86). Our results show that handwashing after contact with excreta is poorly practiced globally, despite the likely positive health benefits. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Dengue prediction by the web: Tweets are a useful tool for estimating and forecasting Dengue at country and city level

PubMed Central

Degener, Carolin Marlen; Vinhal, Livia; Coelho, Giovanini; Meira, Wagner; Codeço, Claudia Torres; Teixeira, Mauro Martins

2017-01-01

Background Infectious diseases are a leading threat to public health. Accurate and timely monitoring of disease risk and progress can reduce their impact. Mentioning a disease in social networks is correlated with physician visits by patients, and can be used to estimate disease activity. Dengue is the fastest growing mosquito-borne viral disease, with an estimated annual incidence of 390 million infections, of which 96 million manifest clinically. Dengue burden is likely to increase in the future owing to trends toward increased urbanization, scarce water supplies and, possibly, environmental change. The epidemiological dynamic of Dengue is complex and difficult to predict, partly due to costly and slow surveillance systems. Methodology / Principal findings In this study, we aimed to quantitatively assess the usefulness of data acquired by Twitter for the early detection and monitoring of Dengue epidemics, both at country and city level at a weekly basis. Here, we evaluated and demonstrated the potential of tweets modeling for Dengue estimation and forecast, in comparison with other available web-based data, Google Trends and Wikipedia access logs. Also, we studied the factors that might influence the goodness-of-fit of the model. We built a simple model based on tweets that was able to ‘nowcast’, i.e. estimate disease numbers in the same week, but also ‘forecast’ disease in future weeks. At the country level, tweets are strongly associated with Dengue cases, and can estimate present and future Dengue cases until 8 weeks in advance. At city level, tweets are also useful for estimating Dengue activity. Our model can be applied successfully to small and less developed cities, suggesting a robust construction, even though it may be influenced by the incidence of the disease, the activity of Twitter locally, and social factors, including human development index and internet access. Conclusions Tweets association with Dengue cases is valuable to assist traditional Dengue surveillance at real-time and low-cost. Tweets are able to successfully nowcast, i.e. estimate Dengue in the present week, but also forecast, i.e. predict Dengue at until 8 weeks in the future, both at country and city level with high estimation capacity. PMID:28719659

Estimating Selected Disease and Non-Battle Injury Echelon 1 and Echelon 2 Outpatient Visits of U.S. Soldiers and Marines in an Operational Setting from Corresponding Echelon 3 (Hospitalizations) Admissions in the Same Theater of Operation

DTIC Science & Technology

2000-06-01

musculoskeletal and soft -tissue complaints. Includes fractures.. sprains, lacerations, abrasions, contusions, dislocations, muscle pulls, or other acute...herpes, pelvic inflammatory disease, venereal warts/ chancres . It. DENTAL (DEN): Dental injury, disease, or condition requiring care by a dentist t

Chronic kidney disease in dogs in UK veterinary practices: prevalence, risk factors, and survival.

PubMed

O'Neill, D G; Elliott, J; Church, D B; McGreevy, P D; Thomson, P C; Brodbelt, D C

2013-01-01

The prevalence for chronic kidney disease (CKD) in dogs varies widely (0.05-3.74%). Identified risk factors include advancing age, specific breeds, small body size, and periodontal disease. To estimate the prevalence and identify risk factors associated with CKD diagnosis and survival in dogs. Purebred dogs were hypothesized to have higher CKD risk and poorer survival characteristics than crossbred dogs. A merged clinical database of 107,214 dogs attending 89 UK veterinary practices over a 2-year period (January 2010-December 2011). A longitudinal study design estimated the apparent prevalence (AP) whereas the true prevalence (TP) was estimated using Bayesian analysis. A nested case-control study design evaluated risk factors. Survival analysis used the Kaplan-Meier survival curve method and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression modeling. The CKD AP was 0.21% (95% CI: 0.19-0.24%) and TP was 0.37% (95% posterior credibility interval 0.02-1.44%). Significant risk factors included increasing age, being insured, and certain breeds (Cocker Spaniel, Cavalier King Charles Spaniel). Cardiac disease was a significant comorbid disorder. Significant clinical signs included halitosis, weight loss, polyuria/polydipsia, urinary incontinence, vomiting, decreased appetite, lethargy, and diarrhea. The median survival time from diagnosis was 226 days (95% CI 112-326 days). International Renal Interest Society stage and blood urea nitrogen concentration at diagnosis were significantly associated with hazard of death due to CKD. Chronic kidney disease compromises dog welfare. Increased awareness of CKD risk factors and association of blood biochemistry results with survival time should facilitate diagnosis and optimize case management to improve animal survival and welfare. Copyright © 2013 by the American College of Veterinary Internal Medicine.

Clinical Prediction Models for Cardiovascular Disease: Tufts Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness Clinical Prediction Model Database.

PubMed

Wessler, Benjamin S; Lai Yh, Lana; Kramer, Whitney; Cangelosi, Michael; Raman, Gowri; Lutz, Jennifer S; Kent, David M

2015-07-01

Clinical prediction models (CPMs) estimate the probability of clinical outcomes and hold the potential to improve decision making and individualize care. For patients with cardiovascular disease, there are numerous CPMs available although the extent of this literature is not well described. We conducted a systematic review for articles containing CPMs for cardiovascular disease published between January 1990 and May 2012. Cardiovascular disease includes coronary heart disease, heart failure, arrhythmias, stroke, venous thromboembolism, and peripheral vascular disease. We created a novel database and characterized CPMs based on the stage of development, population under study, performance, covariates, and predicted outcomes. There are 796 models included in this database. The number of CPMs published each year is increasing steadily over time. Seven hundred seventeen (90%) are de novo CPMs, 21 (3%) are CPM recalibrations, and 58 (7%) are CPM adaptations. This database contains CPMs for 31 index conditions, including 215 CPMs for patients with coronary artery disease, 168 CPMs for population samples, and 79 models for patients with heart failure. There are 77 distinct index/outcome pairings. Of the de novo models in this database, 450 (63%) report a c-statistic and 259 (36%) report some information on calibration. There is an abundance of CPMs available for a wide assortment of cardiovascular disease conditions, with substantial redundancy in the literature. The comparative performance of these models, the consistency of effects and risk estimates across models and the actual and potential clinical impact of this body of literature is poorly understood. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

[Macroeconomic costs of eye diseases].

PubMed

Hirneiß, C; Kampik, A; Neubauer, A S

2014-05-01

Eye diseases that are relevant regarding their macroeconomic costs and their impact on society include cataract, diabetic retinopathy, age-related maculopathy, glaucoma and refractive errors. The aim of this article is to provide a comprehensive overview of direct and indirect costs for major eye disease categories for Germany, based on existing literature and data sources. A semi-structured literature search was performed in the databases Medline and Embase and in the search machine Google for relevant original papers and reviews on costs of eye diseases with relevance for or transferability to Germany (last research date October 2013). In addition, manual searching was performed in important national databases and information sources, such as the Federal Office of Statistics and scientific societies. The direct costs for these diseases add up to approximately 2.6 billion Euros yearly for the Federal Republic of Germany, including out of the pocket payments from patients but excluding optical aids (e.g. glasses). In addition to those direct costs there are also indirect costs which are caused e.g. by loss of employment or productivity or by a reduction in health-related quality of life. These indirect costs can only be roughly estimated. Including the indirect costs for the eye diseases investigated, a total yearly macroeconomic cost ranging between 4 and 12 billion Euros is estimated for Germany. The costs for the eye diseases cataract, diabetic retinopathy, age-related maculopathy, glaucoma and refractive errors have a macroeconomic relevant dimension. Based on the predicted demographic changes with an ageing society an increase of the prevalence and thus also an increase of costs for eye diseases is expected in the future.

The impact of strain-specific immunity on Lyme disease incidence is spatially heterogeneous.

PubMed

Khatchikian, Camilo E; Nadelman, Robert B; Nowakowski, John; Schwartz, Ira; Wormser, Gary P; Brisson, Dustin

2017-12-01

Lyme disease, caused by the bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi, is the most common tick-borne infection in the US. Recent studies have demonstrated that the incidence of human Lyme disease would have been even greater were it not for the presence of strain-specific immunity, which protects previously infected patients against subsequent infections by the same B. burgdorferi strain. Here, spatial heterogeneity is incorporated into epidemiological models to accurately estimate the impact of strain-specific immunity on human Lyme disease incidence. The estimated reduction in the number of Lyme disease cases is greater in epidemiologic models that explicitly include the spatial distribution of Lyme disease cases reported at the county level than those that utilize nationwide data. strain-specific immunity has the greatest epidemiologic impact in geographic areas with the highest Lyme disease incidence due to the greater proportion of people that have been previously infected and have developed strain-specific immunity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimating health service utilization for treatment of pneumococcal disease: the case of Brazil.

PubMed

Sartori, A M C; Novaes, C G; de Soárez, P C; Toscano, C M; Novaes, H M D

2013-07-02

Health service utilization (HSU) is an essential component of economic evaluations of health initiatives. Defining HSU for cases of pneumococcal disease (PD) is particularly complex considering the varying clinical manifestations and diverse severity. We describe the process of developing estimates of HSU for PD as part of an economic evaluation of the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in Brazil. Nationwide inpatient and outpatient HSU by children under-5 years with meningitis (PM), sepsis (PS), non-meningitis non-sepsis invasive PD (NMNS), pneumonia, and acute otitis media (AOM) was estimated. We assumed that all cases of invasive PD (PM, PS, and NMNS) required hospitalization. The study perspective was the health system, including both the public and private sectors. Data sources were obtained from national health information systems, including the Hospital Information System (SIH/SUS) and the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN); surveys; and community-based and health care facility-based studies. We estimated hospitalization rates of 7.69 per 100,000 children under-5 years for PM (21.4 for children <1 years of age and 4.3 for children aged 1-4 years), 5.89 for PS (20.94 and 2.17), and 4.01 for NMNS (5.5 and 3.64) in 2004, with an overall hospitalization rate of 17.59 for all invasive PD (47.27 and 10.11). The estimated incidence rate of all-cause pneumonia was 93.4 per 1000 children under-5 (142.8 for children <1 years of age and 81.2 for children aged 1-4 years), considering both hospital and outpatient care. Secondary data derived from health information systems and the available literature enabled the development of national HSU estimates for PD in Brazil. Estimating HSU for noninvasive disease was challenging, particularly in the case of outpatient care, for which secondary data are scarce. Information for the private sector is lacking in Brazil, but estimates were possible with data from the public sector and national population surveys. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Characterization and pathogenesis of aerosolized eastern equine encephalitis in the common marmoset (Callithrix jacchus).

PubMed

Porter, Aimee I; Erwin-Cohen, Rebecca A; Twenhafel, Nancy; Chance, Taylor; Yee, Steven B; Kern, Steven J; Norwood, David; Hartman, Laurie J; Parker, Michael D; Glass, Pamela J; DaSilva, Luis

2017-02-07

Licensed antiviral therapeutics and vaccines to protect against eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) in humans currently do not exist. Animal models that faithfully recapitulate the clinical characteristics of human EEEV encephalitic disease, including fever, drowsiness, anorexia, and neurological signs such as seizures, are needed to satisfy requirements of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for clinical product licensing under the Animal Rule. In an effort to meet this requirement, we estimated the median lethal dose and described the pathogenesis of aerosolized EEEV in the common marmoset (Callithrix jacchus). Five marmosets were exposed to aerosolized EEEV FL93-939 in doses ranging from 2.4 × 10 1 PFU to 7.95 × 10 5 PFU. The median lethal dose was estimated to be 2.05 × 10 2 PFU. Lethality was observed as early as day 4 post-exposure in the highest-dosed marmoset but animals at lower inhaled doses had a protracted disease course where humane study endpoint was not met until as late as day 19 post-exposure. Clinical signs were observed as early as 3 to 4 days post-exposure, including fever, ruffled fur, decreased grooming, and leukocytosis. Clinical signs increased in severity as disease progressed to include decreased body weight, subdued behavior, tremors, and lack of balance. Fever was observed as early as day 2-3 post-exposure in the highest dose groups and hypothermia was observed in several cases as animals became moribund. Infectious virus was found in several key tissues, including brain, liver, kidney, and several lymph nodes. Clinical hematology results included early neutrophilia, lymphopenia, and thrombocytopenia. Key pathological changes included meningoencephalitis and retinitis. Immunohistochemical staining for viral antigen was positive in the brain, retina, and lymph nodes. More intense and widespread IHC labeling occurred with increased aerosol dose. We have estimated the medial lethal dose of aerosolized EEEV and described the pathology of clinical disease in the marmoset model. The results demonstrate that the marmoset is an animal model suitable for emulation of human EEEV disease in the development of medical countermeasures.

Treatment costs in Hodgkin's disease: a cost-utility analysis.

PubMed

Norum, J; Angelsen, V; Wist, E; Olsen, J A

1996-08-01

The aim of this study was to estimate costs of treatment for Hodgkin's disease (HD) and the outcome in health in terms of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and compare these to a constructed nontreatment alternative. All 55 patients treated for HD at the oncological unit of the University Hospital of Tromsø between 1985 and 1993 were included. The total treatment costs (medication, hospital stay, hospital hotel stay, radiotherapy, travelling, loss in production, i.e. work) were retrospectively estimated for all patients. In December 1994, the 49 survivors were sent a EuroQol questionnaire recording quality of life: 42 responded. The mean quality of life score was 0.78 on a 0-1 scale, and the mean total cost of treatment was pounds 12512. The total treatment costs were significantly higher in patients with advanced clinical stages of the disease (P = 0.0006), B-symptoms (fever, sweats, weight loss) (P = 0.0027) and relapse (P < 0.0001). The costs of one QALY (with production gains included and using a 10% discount rate) were estimated at pounds 1651. When excluding production gains and using a 5% discount rate, the figures became pounds 1327. This makes HD one of the most cost-effective malignancies to treat.

Feasibility of and agreement between MR imaging and spectroscopic estimation of hepatic proton density fat fraction in children with known or suspected nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

PubMed

Achmad, Emil; Yokoo, Takeshi; Hamilton, Gavin; Heba, Elhamy R; Hooker, Jonathan C; Changchien, Christopher; Schroeder, Michael; Wolfson, Tanya; Gamst, Anthony; Schwimmer, Jeffrey B; Lavine, Joel E; Sirlin, Claude B; Middleton, Michael S

2015-10-01

To assess feasibility of and agreement between magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) for estimating hepatic proton density fat fraction (PDFF) in children with known or suspected nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Children were included in this study from two previous research studies in each of which three MRI and three MRS acquisitions were obtained. Sequence acceptability, and MRI- and MRS-estimated PDFF were evaluated. Agreement of MRI- with MRS-estimated hepatic PDFF was assessed by linear regression and Bland-Altman analysis. Age, sex, BMI-Z score, acquisition time, and artifact score effects on MRI- and MRS-estimated PDFF agreement were assessed by multiple linear regression. Eighty-six children (61 boys and 25 girls) were included in this study. Slope and intercept from regressing MRS-PDFF on MRI-PDFF were 0.969 and 1.591%, respectively, and the Bland-Altman bias and 95% limits of agreement were 1.17% ± 2.61%. MRI motion artifact score was higher in boys than girls (by 0.21, p = 0.021). Higher BMI-Z score was associated with lower agreement between MRS and MRI (p = 0.045). Hepatic PDFF estimation by both MRI and MRS is feasible, and MRI- and MRS-estimated PDFF agree closely in children with known or suspected NAFLD.

The eGFR-C study: accuracy of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) estimation using creatinine and cystatin C and albuminuria for monitoring disease progression in patients with stage 3 chronic kidney disease--prospective longitudinal study in a multiethnic population.

PubMed

Lamb, Edmund J; Brettell, Elizabeth A; Cockwell, Paul; Dalton, Neil; Deeks, Jon J; Harris, Kevin; Higgins, Tracy; Kalra, Philip A; Khunti, Kamlesh; Loud, Fiona; Ottridge, Ryan S; Sharpe, Claire C; Sitch, Alice J; Stevens, Paul E; Sutton, Andrew J; Taal, Maarten W

2014-01-14

Uncertainty exists regarding the optimal method to estimate glomerular filtration rate (GFR) for disease detection and monitoring. Widely used GFR estimates have not been validated in British ethnic minority populations. Iohexol measured GFR will be the reference against which each estimating equation will be compared. The estimating equations will be based upon serum creatinine and/or cystatin C. The eGFR-C study has 5 components: 1) A prospective longitudinal cohort study of 1300 adults with stage 3 chronic kidney disease followed for 3 years with reference (measured) GFR and test (estimated GFR [eGFR] and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio) measurements at baseline and 3 years. Test measurements will also be undertaken every 6 months. The study population will include a representative sample of South-Asians and African-Caribbeans. People with diabetes and proteinuria (ACR ≥30 mg/mmol) will comprise 20-30% of the study cohort.2) A sub-study of patterns of disease progression of 375 people (125 each of Caucasian, Asian and African-Caribbean origin; in each case containing subjects at high and low risk of renal progression). Additional reference GFR measurements will be undertaken after 1 and 2 years to enable a model of disease progression and error to be built.3) A biological variability study to establish reference change values for reference and test measures.4) A modelling study of the performance of monitoring strategies on detecting progression, utilising estimates of accuracy, patterns of disease progression and estimates of measurement error from studies 1), 2) and 3).5) A comprehensive cost database for each diagnostic approach will be developed to enable cost-effectiveness modelling of the optimal strategy.The performance of the estimating equations will be evaluated by assessing bias, precision and accuracy. Data will be modelled as a linear function of time utilising all available (maximum 7) time points compared with the difference between baseline and final reference values. The percentage of participants demonstrating large error with the respective estimating equations will be compared. Predictive value of GFR estimates and albumin-to-creatinine ratio will be compared amongst subjects that do or do not show progressive kidney function decline. The eGFR-C study will provide evidence to inform the optimal GFR estimate to be used in clinical practice. ISRCTN42955626.

Economic and medical benefits of ultrasound screenings for gallstone disease.

PubMed

Shen, Hung-Ju; Hsu, Chung-Te; Tung, Tao-Hsin

2015-03-21

To investigate whether screening for gallstone disease was economically feasible and clinically effective. This clinical study was initially conducted in 2002 in Taipei, Taiwan. The study cohort total included 2386 healthy adults who were voluntarily admitted to a regional teaching hospital for a physical check-up. Annual follow-up screening with ultrasound sonography for gallstone disease continued until December 31, 2007. A decision analysis using the Markov Decision Model was constructed to compare different screening regimes for gallstone disease. The economic evaluation included estimates of both the cost-effectiveness and cost-utility of screening for gallstone disease. Direct costs included the cost of screening, regular clinical fees, laparoscopic cholecystectomy, and hospitalization. Indirect costs represent the loss of productivity attributable to the patient's disease state, and were estimated using the gross domestic product for 2011 in Taiwan. Longer time intervals in screening for gallstone disease were associated with the reduced efficacy and utility of screening and with increased cost. The cost per life-year gained (average cost-effectiveness ratio) for annual screening, biennial screening, 3-year screening, 4-year screening, 5-year screening, and no-screening was new Taiwan dollars (NTD) 39076, NTD 58059, NTD 72168, NTD 104488, NTD 126941, and NTD 197473, respectively (P < 0.05). The cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained by annual screening was NTD 40725; biennial screening, NTD 64868; 3-year screening, NTD 84532; 4-year screening, NTD 110962; 5-year screening, NTD 142053; and for the control group, NTD 202979 (P < 0.05). The threshold values indicated that the ultrasound sonography screening programs were highly sensitive to screening costs in a plausible range. Routine screening regime for gallstone disease is both medically and economically valuable. Annual screening for gallstone disease should be recommended.

The Field Production of Water for Injection

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-12-01

L/day Bedridden Patient 0.75 L/day Average Diseased Patient 0.50 L/day e (There is no feasible methodology to forecast the number of procedures per... Bedridden Patient 0.75 All Diseased Patients 0.50 An estimate of the liters/day needed may be calculated based on a forecasted patient stream, including

Current status of Marek’s disease in the United States & worldwide based on a questionnaire survey

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A questionnaire was widely distributed in 2011 to estimate the global prevalence of Marek’s disease (MD) and gain a better understanding of current control strategies and future concerns. A total of 112 questionnaires were returned representing 116 countries from sources including national branch s...

Fatalities from occupational diseases in Connecticut.

PubMed

Morse, T; Storey, E

1999-08-01

Occupational diseases in Connecticut were identified using reports to the Workers' Compensation Commission, Connecticut OSHA, Vital Statistics, and the Tumor Registry. There were 93 identified fatalities from occupational disease in 1995, and 90 in 1994, approximately three times the number of traumatic occupational fatalities. Identified fatalities were predominantly from asbestos-related diseases, including mesothelioma and asbestosis. Most occupational diseases are not readily identifiable with current reporting mechanisms. Based on national estimates, these figures are considered to be an underestimate of the true burden of occupational disease. Increased awareness and reporting of occupational diseases is needed to properly identify and prevent these common conditions.

Predictors of temporary and permanent work disability in patients with inflammatory bowel disease: results of the swiss inflammatory bowel disease cohort study.

PubMed

Siebert, Uwe; Wurm, Johannes; Gothe, Raffaella Matteucci; Arvandi, Marjan; Vavricka, Stephan R; von Känel, Roland; Begré, Stefan; Sulz, Michael C; Meyenberger, Christa; Sagmeister, Markus

2013-01-01

Inflammatory bowel disease can decrease the quality of life and induce work disability. We sought to (1) identify and quantify the predictors of disease-specific work disability in patients with inflammatory bowel disease and (2) assess the suitability of using cross-sectional data to predict future outcomes, using the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort Study data. A total of 1187 patients were enrolled and followed up for an average of 13 months. Predictors included patient and disease characteristics and drug utilization. Potential predictors were identified through an expert panel and published literature. We estimated adjusted effect estimates with 95% confidence intervals using logistic and zero-inflated Poisson regression. Overall, 699 (58.9%) experienced Crohn's disease and 488 (41.1%) had ulcerative colitis. Most important predictors for temporary work disability in patients with Crohn's disease included gender, disease duration, disease activity, C-reactive protein level, smoking, depressive symptoms, fistulas, extraintestinal manifestations, and the use of immunosuppressants/steroids. Temporary work disability in patients with ulcerative colitis was associated with age, disease duration, disease activity, and the use of steroids/antibiotics. In all patients, disease activity emerged as the only predictor of permanent work disability. Comparing data at enrollment versus follow-up yielded substantial differences regarding disability and predictors, with follow-up data showing greater predictor effects. We identified predictors of work disability in patients with Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis. Our findings can help in forecasting these disease courses and guide the choice of appropriate measures to prevent adverse outcomes. Comparing cross-sectional and longitudinal data showed that the conduction of cohort studies is inevitable for the examination of disability.

Investigating the cost implications of including all respiratory medicines in PCRS schemes.

PubMed

O'Dwyer, Jackie; Murphy, Aileen

2018-02-01

This study estimates the additional cost to the State to pay for all respiratory medicines through the Primary Care Reimbursement Service (PCRS) schemes, reducing cost barriers to medication as a complement to existing chronic disease management programmes. Previous literature found higher medication adherence rates amongst medical card patients than those that had to pay or co-pay themselves. A review of medication expenditure on the PCRS schemes from 2005 to 2015. Data on medicines sold into and out of pharmacies was used to estimate the proportion to PCRS schemes or private. Scenario analyses were conducted to estimate what the cost to the State would be to provide funding for all respiratory medicines. Trend analysis findings showed that respiratory medicines have been less than 10% of total PCRS medicine expenditure for the years reviewed. The largest portion of the respiratory medicine expenditure is allocated to 'drugs for obstructive pulmonary disorder' (OPD), ranging from 90% in 2005 to 69% in 2015. Eighty-seven per cent of drugs to treat OPD are dispensed publicly and 13% privately. A scenario analysis estimated that the extra cost to the State to be €20.2 m. Respiratory disease is included in the Irish Government's chronic disease management programme. This aims to deliver optimal care in the most appropriate setting so as to improve health outcomes and quality of life. Medication adherence is imperative to achieving these aims. Reducing cost barriers as a complement to other initiatives may improve medicine adherence thereby improving the effectiveness of disease management and patient outcomes.

Economic burden of occupational injury and illness in the United States.

PubMed

Leigh, J Paul

2011-12-01

The allocation of scarce health care resources requires a knowledge of disease costs. Whereas many studies of a variety of diseases are available, few focus on job-related injuries and illnesses. This article provides estimates of the national costs of occupational injury and illness among civilians in the United States for 2007. This study provides estimates of both the incidence of fatal and nonfatal injuries and nonfatal illnesses and the prevalence of fatal diseases as well as both medical and indirect (productivity) costs. To generate the estimates, I combined primary and secondary data sources with parameters from the literature and model assumptions. My primary sources were injury, disease, employment, and inflation data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) as well as costs data from the National Council on Compensation Insurance and the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project. My secondary sources were the National Academy of Social Insurance, literature estimates of Attributable Fractions (AF) of diseases with occupational components, and national estimates for all health care costs. Critical model assumptions were applied to the underreporting of injuries, wage-replacement rates, and AFs. Total costs were calculated by multiplying the number of cases by the average cost per case. A sensitivity analysis tested for the effects of the most consequential assumptions. Numerous improvements over earlier studies included reliance on BLS data for government workers and ten specific cancer sites rather than only one broad cancer category. The number of fatal and nonfatal injuries in 2007 was estimated to be more than 5,600 and almost 8,559,000, respectively, at a cost of $6 billion and $186 billion. The number of fatal and nonfatal illnesses was estimated at more than 53,000 and nearly 427,000, respectively, with cost estimates of $46 billion and $12 billion. For injuries and diseases combined, medical cost estimates were $67 billion (27% of the total), and indirect costs were almost $183 billion (73%). Injuries comprised 77 percent of the total, and diseases accounted for 23 percent. The total estimated costs were approximately $250 billion, compared with the inflation-adjusted cost of $217 billion for 1992. The medical and indirect costs of occupational injuries and illnesses are sizable, at least as large as the cost of cancer. Workers' compensation covers less than 25 percent of these costs, so all members of society share the burden. The contributions of job-related injuries and illnesses to the overall cost of medical care and ill health are greater than generally assumed. © 2011 Milbank Memorial Fund.

Prevalence of Bovine Tuberculosis in India: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Srinivasan, Sreenidhi; Easterling, Laurel; Rimal, Bipin; Niu, Xiaoyue Maggie; Conlan, Andrew J K; Dudas, Patrick; Kapur, Vivek

2018-06-08

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a chronic disease of cattle that impacts productivity and represents a major public health threat. Despite the considerable economic costs and zoonotic risk consequences associated with the disease, accurate estimates of bTB prevalence are lacking in many countries, including India, where national control programmes are not yet implemented and the disease is considered endemic. To address this critical knowledge gap, we performed a systematic review of the literature and a meta-analysis to estimate bTB prevalence in cattle in India and provide a foundation for the future formulation of rational disease control strategies and the accurate assessment of economic and health impact risks. The literature search was performed in accordance with PRISMA guidelines and identified 285 cross-sectional studies on bTB in cattle in India across four electronic databases and handpicked publications. Of these, 44 articles were included, contributing a total of 82,419 cows and buffaloes across 18 states and one union territory in India. Based on a random-effects (RE) meta-regression model, the analysis revealed a pooled prevalence estimate of 7.3% (95% CI: 5.6, 9.5), indicating that there may be an estimated 21.8 million (95% CI: 16.6, 28.4) infected cattle in India-a population greater than the total number of dairy cows in the United States. The analyses further suggest that production system, species, breed, study location, diagnostic technique, sample size and study period are likely moderators of bTB prevalence in India and need to be considered when developing future disease surveillance and control programmes. Taken together with the projected increase in intensification of dairy production and the subsequent increase in the likelihood of zoonotic transmission, the results of our study suggest that attempts to eliminate tuberculosis from humans will require simultaneous consideration of bTB control in cattle population in countries such as India. © 2018 The Authors. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases Published by Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Erythrocyte-bound C4d in combination with complement and autoantibody status for the monitoring of SLE.

PubMed

Merrill, Joan T; Petri, Michelle A; Buyon, Jill; Ramsey-Goldman, Rosalind; Kalunian, Kenneth; Putterman, Chaim; Conklin, John; Furie, Richard A; Dervieux, Thierry

2018-01-01

We examined the usefulness of erythrocyte-bound C4d (EC4d) to monitor disease activity in SLE. Data and blood samples were collected from three different studies, each of which included longitudinal evaluations using the Physicians Global Assessment (PGA) of disease activity and the Safety of Estrogens in Lupus Erythematosus National Assessment (SELENA) SLE Disease Activity Index (SLEDAI), which was assessed without anti-double-stranded DNA (dsDNA) and low complement C3/C4 (clinical SELENA-SLEDAI). EC4d levels were determined using flow cytometry; other laboratory measures included antibodies to dsDNA, C3 and C4 proteins. Relationships between clinical SELENA-SLEDAI, PGA and the laboratory measures were analysed using linear mixed effect models. The three studies combined enrolled 124 patients with SLE (mean age 42 years, 97% women, 31% Caucasians and 34% African-Americans) followed for an average of 5 consecutive visits (range 2-13 visits). EC4d levels and low C3/C4 status were significantly associated the clinical SELENA-SLEDAI or PGA in each of the three study groups (p<0.05). Multivariate analysis revealed that EC4d levels (estimate=0.94±0.28) and low complement C3/C4 (estimate=1.24±0.43) were both independently and significantly associated with the clinical SELENA-SLEDAI (p<0.01) and PGA. EC4d levels were also associated with the clinical SELENA-SLEDAI (estimate: 1.20±0.29) and PGA (estimate=0.19±0.04) among patients with chronically low or normal C3/C4 (p<0.01). Anti-dsDNA titres were generally associated with disease activity. These data support the association of EC4d with disease activity regardless of complement C3/C4 status and its usefulness in monitoring SLE disease. Additional studies will be required to support these validation data.

A systematic review and meta-analysis on the prevalence of Dupuytren disease in the general population of Western countries.

PubMed

Lanting, Rosanne; Broekstra, Dieuwke C; Werker, Paul M N; van den Heuvel, Edwin R

2014-03-01

Dupuytren disease is a fibroproliferative disease of palmar fascia of the hand. Its prevalence has been the subject of several reviews; however, an accurate description of the prevalence range in the general population--and of the relation between age and disease--is lacking. Embase and PubMed were searched using database-specific Medical Subject Headings; titles and abstracts were searched for the words "Dupuytren," "incidence," and "prevalence." Two reviewers independently assessed the articles using inclusion and exclusion criteria, and rated the included studies with a quality assessment instrument. In a meta-analysis, the median prevalence, as a function of age by sex, was estimated, accompanied by 95 percent prediction intervals. The observed heterogeneity in prevalence was investigated with respect to study quality and geographic location. Twenty-three of 199 unique identified articles were included. The number of participants ranged from 37 to 97,537, and age ranged from 18 to 100 years. Prevalence varied from 0.6 to 31.6 percent. The quality of studies differed but could not explain the heterogeneity among studies. Mean prevalence was estimated as 12, 21, and 29 percent at ages 55, 65, and 75 years, respectively, based on the relation between age and prevalence determined from 10 studies. The authors describe a prevalence range of Dupuytren disease in the general population of Western countries. The relation between age and prevalence of Dupuytren disease is given according to sex, including 95 percent prediction intervals. It is possible to determine disease prevalence at a certain age for the total population, and for men and women separately.

Bootstrap imputation with a disease probability model minimized bias from misclassification due to administrative database codes.

PubMed

van Walraven, Carl

2017-04-01

Diagnostic codes used in administrative databases cause bias due to misclassification of patient disease status. It is unclear which methods minimize this bias. Serum creatinine measures were used to determine severe renal failure status in 50,074 hospitalized patients. The true prevalence of severe renal failure and its association with covariates were measured. These were compared to results for which renal failure status was determined using surrogate measures including the following: (1) diagnostic codes; (2) categorization of probability estimates of renal failure determined from a previously validated model; or (3) bootstrap methods imputation of disease status using model-derived probability estimates. Bias in estimates of severe renal failure prevalence and its association with covariates were minimal when bootstrap methods were used to impute renal failure status from model-based probability estimates. In contrast, biases were extensive when renal failure status was determined using codes or methods in which model-based condition probability was categorized. Bias due to misclassification from inaccurate diagnostic codes can be minimized using bootstrap methods to impute condition status using multivariable model-derived probability estimates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimating the burden of foodborne disease, South Korea, 2008-2012.

PubMed

Park, Myoung Su; Kim, Yong Soo; Lee, Soon Ho; Kim, Soon Han; Park, Ki Hwan; Bahk, Gyung Jin

2015-03-01

Estimating the actual occurrence of foodborne illness is challenging because only a small proportion of foodborne illnesses are confirmed and reported. Many studies have attempted to accurately estimate the overall number of cases of foodborne illness, but none have attempted to estimate the burden of foodborne disease in South Korea. This study used data from the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service (HIRA), a public health surveillance system in South Korea, to calculate the number of cases and hospitalizations due to 18 specific pathogens and unspecified agents commonly transmitted through contaminated food between 2008 and 2012 in South Korea while accounting for uncertainty in the estimate. The estimated annual occurrences of foodborne illness were 336,138 (90% credible interval [CrI]: 258,379-430,740), with inpatient stays (hospitalizations), outpatient visits (foodborne disease infections), and patients' experiences (without visiting physicians) accounting for 2.3% (n=7809 [90% CrI: 7016-8616]), 14.4% (n=48,267 [90% CrI: 45,883-50,695]) and 83.3% (n=280,062 [90% CrI: 201,795-374,091]), respectively. Escherichia coli, including enterohemorrhagic E. coli, caused most illnesses, followed by nontyphoidal Salmonella spp., Staphylococcus aureus, hepatitis A virus, and norovirus. These results will be useful to food safety policymakers for the prevention and control of foodborne pathogens in South Korea.

Characterizing the burden of occupational injury and disease.

PubMed

Schulte, Paul A

2005-06-01

To review the literature on the burden of occupational disease and injury and to provide a comprehensive characterization of the burden. The scientific and governmental literature from 1990 to the present was searched and evaluated. Thirty-eight studies illustrative of the burden of occupational disease were reviewed for findings, methodology, strengths, and limitations. Recent U.S. estimates of occupational mortality and morbidity include approximately 55,000 deaths (eighth leading cause) and 3.8 million disabling injuries per year, respectively. Comprehensive estimates of U.S. costs related to these burdens range between dollar 128 billion and dollar 155 billion per year. Despite these significant indicators, occupational morbidity, mortality, and risks are not well characterized in comparative burden assessments. The magnitude of occupational disease and injury burden is significant but underestimated. There is a need for an integrated approach to address these underestimates.

Relative risk estimation for malaria disease mapping based on stochastic SIR-SI model in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samat, Nor Azah; Ma'arof, Syafiqah Husna Mohd Imam

2016-10-01

Disease mapping is a study on the geographical distribution of a disease to represent the epidemiology data spatially. The production of maps is important to identify areas that deserve closer scrutiny or more attention. In this study, a mosquito-borne disease called Malaria is the focus of our application. Malaria disease is caused by parasites of the genus Plasmodium and is transmitted to people through the bites of infected female Anopheles mosquitoes. Precautionary steps need to be considered in order to avoid the malaria virus from spreading around the world, especially in the tropical and subtropical countries, which would subsequently increase the number of Malaria cases. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to discuss a stochastic model employed to estimate the relative risk of malaria disease in Malaysia. The outcomes of the analysis include a Malaria risk map for all 16 states in Malaysia, revealing the high and low risk areas of Malaria occurrences.

Economic burden made celiac disease an expensive and challenging condition for Iranian patients.

PubMed

Pourhoseingholi, Mohamad Amin; Rostami-Nejad, Mohammad; Barzegar, Farnoush; Rostami, Kamran; Volta, Umberto; Sadeghi, Amir; Honarkar, Zahra; Salehi, Niloofar; Asadzadeh-Aghdaei, Hamid; Baghestani, Ahmad Reza; Zali, Mohammad Reza

2017-01-01

The aim of this study was to estimate the economic burden of celiac disease (CD) in Iran. The assessment of burden of CD has become an important primary or secondary outcome measure in clinical and epidemiologic studies. Information regarding medical costs and gluten free diet (GFD) costs were gathered using questionnaire and checklists offered to the selected patients with CD. The data included the direct medical cost (including Doctor Visit, hospitalization, clinical test examinations, endoscopies, etc.), GFD cost and loss productivity cost (as the indirect cost) for CD patient were estimated. The factors used for cost estimation included frequency of health resource utilization and gluten free diet basket. Purchasing Power Parity Dollar (PPP$) was used in order to make inter-country comparisons. Total of 213 celiac patients entered to this study. The mean (standard deviation) of total cost per patient per year was 3377 (1853) PPP$. This total cost including direct medical cost, GFD costs and loss productivity cost per patients per year. Also the mean and standard deviation of medical cost and GFD cost were 195 (128) PPP$ and 932 (734) PPP$ respectively. The total costs of CD were significantly higher for male. Also GFD cost and total cost were higher for unmarried patients. In conclusion, our estimation of CD economic burden is indicating that CD patients face substantial expense that might not be affordable for a good number of these patients. The estimated economic burden may put these patients at high risk for dietary neglect resulting in increasing the risk of long term complications.

Family history of inflammatory bowel disease among patients with ulcerative colitis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Childers, Ryan E; Eluri, Swathi; Vazquez, Christine; Weise, Rayna Matsuno; Bayless, Theodore M; Hutfless, Susan

2014-11-01

Despite numerous shared susceptibility loci between Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis, the prevalence of family history among ulcerative colitis patients is not well-established and considered to be less prevalent. A systemic review and meta-analysis were conducted to estimate the prevalence of family history of inflammatory bowel disease in ulcerative colitis patients, and its effect on disease outcomes. PubMED was searched to identify studies reporting the prevalence of family history of inflammatory bowel disease among ulcerative colitis patients. Definitions of family history, study type, and subtypes of family history prevalence were abstracted, as were disease outcomes including age at ulcerative colitis diagnosis, disease location, surgery and extraintestinal manifestations. Pooled prevalence estimates were calculated using random effects models. Seventy-one studies (86,824 patients) were included. The prevalence of a family history of inflammatory bowel disease in ulcerative colitis patients was 12% (95% confidence interval [CI] 11 to 13%; range 0-39%). Family history of ulcerative colitis (9%; 22 studies) was more prevalent than Crohn's disease (2%; 18 studies). Patients younger than 18years of age at time of diagnosis had a greater family history of inflammatory bowel disease (prevalence 15%, 95% CI: 11-20%; 13 studies). There were no differences in disease location, need for surgery, or extraintestinal manifestations among those with a family history, although very few studies reported on these outcomes. Overall, 12% of ulcerative colitis patients have a family history of inflammatory bowel disease, and were more likely to have a family history of ulcerative colitis than Crohn's disease. Pediatric-onset ulcerative colitis patients were more likely to have a family history of inflammatory bowel disease. Copyright © 2014 European Crohn's and Colitis Organisation. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A practical guideline for intracranial volume estimation in patients with Alzheimer's disease

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Background Intracranial volume (ICV) is an important normalization measure used in morphometric analyses to correct for head size in studies of Alzheimer Disease (AD). Inaccurate ICV estimation could introduce bias in the outcome. The current study provides a decision aid in defining protocols for ICV estimation in patients with Alzheimer disease in terms of sampling frequencies that can be optimally used on the volumetric MRI data, and the type of software most suitable for use in estimating the ICV measure. Methods Two groups of 22 subjects are considered, including adult controls (AC) and patients with Alzheimer Disease (AD). Reference measurements were calculated for each subject by manually tracing intracranial cavity by the means of visual inspection. The reliability of reference measurements were assured through intra- and inter- variation analyses. Three publicly well-known software packages (Freesurfer, FSL, and SPM) were examined in their ability to automatically estimate ICV across the groups. Results Analysis of the results supported the significant effect of estimation method, gender, cognitive condition of the subject and the interaction among method and cognitive condition factors in the measured ICV. Results on sub-sampling studies with a 95% confidence showed that in order to keep the accuracy of the interleaved slice sampling protocol above 99%, the sampling period cannot exceed 20 millimeters for AC and 15 millimeters for AD. Freesurfer showed promising estimates for both adult groups. However SPM showed more consistency in its ICV estimation over the different phases of the study. Conclusions This study emphasized the importance in selecting the appropriate protocol, the choice of the sampling period in the manual estimation of ICV and selection of suitable software for the automated estimation of ICV. The current study serves as an initial framework for establishing an appropriate protocol in both manual and automatic ICV estimations with different subject populations. PMID:25953026

Societal costs of vascular cognitive impairment in older adults.

PubMed

Rockwood, Kenneth; Brown, Murray; Merry, Heather; Sketris, Ingrid; Fisk, John

2002-06-01

The construct of vascular cognitive impairment (VCI) includes many whose care is or will be costly. Nevertheless, estimates of these costs are not well described. We therefore set out to estimate the societal costs of VCI in elderly people. In a secondary analysis of the Canadian Study of Health and Aging, a representative cohort study, Canadian dollar costs using a societal perspective were estimated by standard methods. The total annual per-patient societal costs for VCI by severity were $15 022 for those with mild disease, $14 468 for those with mild to moderate disease, $20 063 for those with moderate disease, and $34 515 for those with severe disease. The most expensive component per individual was the cost of institutional long-term care. Although severe impairment was associated with higher costs, the extent of institutionalization at all levels of severity and less drug use among those more severely impaired mitigated a severity-cost gradient. The societal costs of VCI are not inconsiderable. In contrast to Alzheimer disease, there is no clear gradient relating cost to severity. Unpaid caregiver costs are an important aspect of societal costs, even in those with only mild impairment.

Measuring missing heritability: Inferring the contribution of common variants

PubMed Central

Golan, David; Lander, Eric S.; Rosset, Saharon

2014-01-01

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs), also called common variant association studies (CVASs), have uncovered thousands of genetic variants associated with hundreds of diseases. However, the variants that reach statistical significance typically explain only a small fraction of the heritability. One explanation for the “missing heritability” is that there are many additional disease-associated common variants whose effects are too small to detect with current sample sizes. It therefore is useful to have methods to quantify the heritability due to common variation, without having to identify all causal variants. Recent studies applied restricted maximum likelihood (REML) estimation to case–control studies for diseases. Here, we show that REML considerably underestimates the fraction of heritability due to common variation in this setting. The degree of underestimation increases with the rarity of disease, the heritability of the disease, and the size of the sample. Instead, we develop a general framework for heritability estimation, called phenotype correlation–genotype correlation (PCGC) regression, which generalizes the well-known Haseman–Elston regression method. We show that PCGC regression yields unbiased estimates. Applying PCGC regression to six diseases, we estimate the proportion of the phenotypic variance due to common variants to range from 25% to 56% and the proportion of heritability due to common variants from 41% to 68% (mean 60%). These results suggest that common variants may explain at least half the heritability for many diseases. PCGC regression also is readily applicable to other settings, including analyzing extreme-phenotype studies and adjusting for covariates such as sex, age, and population structure. PMID:25422463

Tobacco Smoking Status and the Contribution to Burden of Diseases in Iran, 1990-2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010.

PubMed

Ghasemian, Anoosheh; Rezaei, Nazila; Saeedi Moghaddam, Sahar; Mansouri, Anita; Parsaeian, Mahboubeh; Delavari, Alireza; Jamshidi, Hamid Reza; Sharifi, Farshad; Naderimagham, Shohreh

2015-08-01

Tobacco smoking and exposure to second-hand smoke in the indoor environment are major public health risks worldwide. The aim of this paper is to report and critique a global assessment of smoking prevalence, smoking-attributable deaths, and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) extracted from GBD study 2010, by sex and age in Iran from 1990 to 2010. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2010 estimated the distributions of exposure and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and analyzing published and unpublished data. These assessments were used, together with estimates of death and DALYs due to specific risk factors, to calculate the attributed burden for each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. Uncertainties in the distribution of exposure, relative risks, and relevant outcomes were incorporated into estimates of attributable mortality and burden. In this study, our aim was to reformulate the GBD data, produce new graphs, and explain the results for Iran in greater detail. Between 1990 and 2010, the prevalence of tobacco smoking at all ages increased by 1% in men and declined by 2% in women in Iran, but the overall prevalence in the general population was unchanged (12%). A reduction was observed in the age-standardized death and DALY rates (per 100,000 population) attributed to tobacco smoking, including second-hand smoke. The attributed DALY rate was greater for Iranian men than for Iranian women. The highest rates of DALYs because of tobacco smoking were found in smoker men and women aged 70+, but exposure to second-hand smoke had the most significant burden in children under 5 years old. In 1990, the three leading disease burdens attributed to tobacco smoking, including second-hand smoke, were ischemic heart disease; communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders; and chronic respiratory diseases. In 2010, three leading burden of diseases attributed to tobacco smoking belonged to ischemic heart disease, chronic respiratory disease, and, and cerebrovascular disease, respectively. Despite a reduction in the rate of tobacco smoking, including second-hand smoke, since 1990, smoking exposure remained the fifth leading risk factor for deaths and DALYs in Iran in 2010. Overall, our data clearly show the need for new efforts in Iran to reduce the mortality and burden attributed to tobacco smoking.

Methods for Estimating Kidney Disease Stage Transition Probabilities Using Electronic Medical Records

PubMed Central

Luo, Lola; Small, Dylan; Stewart, Walter F.; Roy, Jason A.

2013-01-01

Chronic diseases are often described by stages of severity. Clinical decisions about what to do are influenced by the stage, whether a patient is progressing, and the rate of progression. For chronic kidney disease (CKD), relatively little is known about the transition rates between stages. To address this, we used electronic health records (EHR) data on a large primary care population, which should have the advantage of having both sufficient follow-up time and sample size to reliably estimate transition rates for CKD. However, EHR data have some features that threaten the validity of any analysis. In particular, the timing and frequency of laboratory values and clinical measurements are not determined a priori by research investigators, but rather, depend on many factors, including the current health of the patient. We developed an approach for estimating CKD stage transition rates using hidden Markov models (HMMs), when the level of information and observation time vary among individuals. To estimate the HMMs in a computationally manageable way, we used a “discretization” method to transform daily data into intervals of 30 days, 90 days, or 180 days. We assessed the accuracy and computation time of this method via simulation studies. We also used simulations to study the effect of informative observation times on the estimated transition rates. Our simulation results showed good performance of the method, even when missing data are non-ignorable. We applied the methods to EHR data from over 60,000 primary care patients who have chronic kidney disease (stage 2 and above). We estimated transition rates between six underlying disease states. The results were similar for men and women. PMID:25848580

Prevalence, Duration and Severity of Parkinson's Disease in Germany: A Combined Meta-Analysis from Literature Data and Outpatient Samples.

PubMed

Enders, Dirk; Balzer-Geldsetzer, Monika; Riedel, Oliver; Dodel, Richard; Wittchen, Hans-Ulrich; Sensken, Sven-Christian; Wolff, Björn; Reese, Jens-Peter

2017-01-01

Epidemiological data on the prevalence of Parkinson's disease (PD) in Germany are limited. The aims of this study were to estimate the age- and gender-specific prevalence of PD in Germany as well as the severity and illness duration. A systematic literature search was performed in 5 different databases. European studies were included if they reported age- and gender-specific numbers of prevalence rates of PD. Meta-analytic approaches were applied to derive age- and gender-specific pooled prevalence estimates. Data of 4 German outpatient samples were incorporated to calculate the proportion of patients with PD in Germany grouped by Hoehn and Yahr (HY) stages and disease duration. In the German population, 178,169 cases of PD were estimated (prevalence: 217.22/100,000). The estimated relative illness duration was 40% with less than 5 years, 31% with 5-9 years, and 29% with more than 9 years. The proportions for different HY stages were estimated at 13% (I), 30% (II), 35% (III), 17% (IV), and 4% (V), respectively. Key Message: We provide an up-to-date estimation of age- and gender-specific as well as severity-based prevalence figures for PD in Germany. Further community studies are needed to estimate population-based severity distributions and distributions of non-motor symptoms in PD. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Estimating Burdens of Neglected Tropical Zoonotic Diseases on Islands with Introduced Mammals.

PubMed

de Wit, Luz A; Croll, Donald A; Tershy, Bernie; Newton, Kelly M; Spatz, Dena R; Holmes, Nick D; Kilpatrick, A Marm

2017-03-01

AbstractMany neglected tropical zoonotic pathogens are maintained by introduced mammals, and on islands the most common introduced species are rodents, cats, and dogs. Management of introduced mammals, including control or eradication of feral populations, which is frequently done for ecological restoration, could also reduce or eliminate the pathogens these animals carry. Understanding the burden of these zoonotic diseases is crucial for quantifying the potential public health benefits of introduced mammal management. However, epidemiological data are only available from a small subset of islands where these introduced mammals co-occur with people. We examined socioeconomic and climatic variables as predictors for disease burdens of angiostrongyliasis, leptospirosis, toxoplasmosis, toxocariasis, and rabies from 57 islands or island countries. We found strong correlates of disease burden for leptospirosis, Toxoplasma gondii infection, angiostrongyliasis, and toxocariasis with more than 50% of the variance explained, and an average of 57% (range = 32-95%) predictive accuracy on out-of-sample data. We used these relationships to provide estimates of leptospirosis incidence and T. gondii seroprevalence infection on islands where nonnative rodents and cats are present. These predicted estimates of disease burden could be used in an initial assessment of whether the costs of managing introduced mammal reservoirs might be less than the costs of perpetual treatment of these diseases on islands.

Vegetable and fruit intake and mortality from chronic disease in New Zealand.

PubMed

Tobias, Martin; Turley, Maria; Stefanogiannis, Niki; Vander Hoorn, Stephen; Lawes, Carlene; Mhurchu, Cliona Ni; Rodgers, Anthony

2006-02-01

To estimate mortality attributable to inadequate vegetable and fruit intake in New Zealand in 1997, and the burden of disease that could be avoided in 2011 if modest increases in vegetable and fruit intake were to occur. Comparative risk assessment methodology was used to estimate both attributable and avoidable mortality due to inadequate vegetable and fruit consumption (< 600 g/day). Vegetables and fruit were defined as all fresh, frozen, canned, dried or juiced vegetables and fruit, except potatoes, nuts, seeds and pulses. Disease outcomes assessed were mortality from ischaemic heart disease, ischaemic stroke, and lung, oesophageal, stomach and colorectal cancers. In 1997, mean vegetable and fruit intake was 420 g/day in males and 404 g/day in females. Inadequate vegetable and fruit intake is estimated to have contributed to 1,559 deaths (6% of all deaths) in that year, including 1,171 from ischaemic heart disease, 179 from ischaemic stroke and 209 from cancer. Modest increases in vegetable and fruit intake (40 g/day above the historic trend) could prevent 334 deaths each year from 2011, mostly from ischaemic heart disease. Inadequate vegetable and fruit intake is an important cause of mortality in New Zealand. Small increases in vegetable and fruit intake could have a major impact on population health within a decade.

Omega-3 fatty acid supplementation as an adjunctive therapy in the treatment of chronic kidney disease: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Hu, Jing; Liu, Zuoliang; Zhang, Hao

2017-01-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the benefits and risks of omega-3 fatty acid supplementation in patients with chronic kidney disease. A systematic search of articles in PubMed, Embase, the Cochrane Library, and reference lists was performed to find relevant literature. All eligible studies assessed proteinuria, the serum creatinine clearance rate, the estimated glomerular filtration rate, or the occurrence of end-stage renal disease. Standard mean differences with 95% confidence intervals for continuous data were used to estimate the effects of omega-3 fatty acid supplementation on renal function, as reflected by the serum creatinine clearance rate, proteinuria, the estimated glomerular filtration rate, and relative risk. Additionally, a random-effects model was used to estimate the effect of omega-3 fatty acid supplementation on the risk of end-stage renal disease. Nine randomized controlled trials evaluating 444 patients with chronic kidney disease were included in the study. The follow-up duration ranged from 2 to 76.8 months. Compared with no or low-dose omega-3 fatty acid supplementation, any or high-dose omega-3 fatty acid supplementation, respectively, was associated with a lower risk of proteinuria (SMD: -0.31; 95% CI: -0.53 to -0.10; p=0.004) but had little or no effect on the serum creatinine clearance rate (SMD: 0.22; 95% CI: -0.40 to 0.84; p=0.482) or the estimated glomerular filtration rate (SMD: 0.14; 95% CI: -0.13 to 0.42; p=0.296). However, this supplementation was associated with a reduced risk of end-stage renal disease (RR: 0.49; 95% CI: 0.24 to 0.99; p=0.047). In sum, omega-3 fatty acid supplementation is associated with a significantly reduced risk of end-stage renal disease and delays the progression of this disease.

Direct medical costs associated with atopic diseases among young children in Thailand.

PubMed

Ngamphaiboon, Jarungchit; Kongnakorn, Thitima; Detzel, Patrick; Sirisomboonwong, Krittawan; Wasiak, Radek

2012-01-01

Allergic diseases are the most common childhood illness in Thailand. Their prevalence has been rising over time, with several studies having revealed substantial economic burden. However, no such study had yet been conducted for Thailand. The aim of this study was to estimate direct medical costs associated with atopic diseases among children aged 0-5 years in Thailand. A cost-of-illness model was constructed to estimate the total direct medical costs of atopic diseases comprising atopic dermatitis, chronic rhinitis, asthma (i.e., recurrent wheeze), and cow's milk allergy. The model employed a prevalence-based approach, considering a total number of atopic cases in 2010. Direct medical costs were estimated using a bottom-up analysis with the estimation of the quantity of healthcare resource use and the unit costs. Epidemiological data were obtained from literature and Thai surveys, whereas treatment unit costs were from either a hospital database or Thai standard cost list. Expert opinion informed type, frequency, and quantity of medical resources utilized. Key limitations included lack of data-driven evidences on severity distribution for this particular age group, indirect costs, and medical resource use associated with each condition. Total direct cost was estimated to be THB 27.8 billion (US$899 million). Treatments contributed largest to the total costs (46%), followed by inpatient care (37%), outpatient care (12%), and monitoring and labs (5%). Costs per treated patient were highest in cow's milk allergy (THB 64,383; US$2077), followed by rhinitis (THB 12,669; US$409), asthma (THB 9633; US$312), and atopic dermatitis (THB 5432; US$175). Atopic diseases in young children are associated with substantial burden in direct medical costs to Thailand. These costs can be diminished through nutritional intervention recognized to effectively decrease the incidence of atopic diseases.

An Example of the Estimation and Display of a Smoothly Varying Function of Time and Space--The Incidence of the Disease Mumps.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eddy, William F.; Mockus, Audris

1994-01-01

Describes animation algorithms for creating smooth functions of time- and space-varying phenomenon. The incidence of the disease mumps from 1968-88 in the United States is used to demonstrate the algorithms. Figures that illustrate the findings are included. (14 references) (KRN)

Efficacy of antemortem rectal biopsies to diagnose and estimate prevalence of chronic wasting disease in free-ranging elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is the naturally occurring transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) of captive and free ranging cervid ruminants. Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni) are a free-ranging species of large cervid with a habitat that includes large US national parks. Minimally ...

Immunological control of ticks and tick-borne diseases that impact cattle health and production in Mexico

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The cattle industry is one of the most important agroeconomic activities in Mexico. The national herd is estimated to include approximately 33.5 million head of cattle. Ticks and tick-borne diseases are principal factors with a negative impact on cattle health and production in Mexico. The most econ...

Cost of chronic hepatitis B infection in South Korea.

PubMed

Yang, Bong-Min; Kim, Cheol-Hwan; Kim, Ji-Yun

2004-01-01

To estimate the direct medical costs of chronic hepatitis B (CHB) infection and its liver disease sequelae in South Korea. Korea is a hepatitis B-endemic area with 5.79% to 10.87% of males and 1.51% to 4.44% of females over 20 years of age carrying the virus. It is estimated that 25% of carriers will develop serious hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related complications. While vaccination programs have reduced the prevalence of hepatitis B in people younger than 20 years, significant CHB-related morbidity will continue to occur for the next 15 to 30 years until the benefits of the vaccination programs take effect. Direct medical costs for six CHB-related disease states, including hepatocellular carcinoma and liver transplant, were estimated for the year 2001. Four data sources were used to gather information: the National Health Insurance Corporation database, patients' medical charts, expert opinion, and patient survey data. In 2001, the total medical costs of six CHB-related diseases were 250 million Korean Won (KRW) (equivalent to U.S. 208.6 million dollars), based on an exchange rate of KRW 1200 = US 1 dollar. Annual treatment costs per patient ranged from KRW297,392 (US 248 dollars) for chronic hepatitis B to KRW 80.6 million (U.S. 67,156 dollars) for liver transplant. The cost of treatment rose continuously with liver disease progression. The main cost driver was inpatient hospitalizations (including surgical costs). CHB-related diseases are a significant cost burden to the South Korean healthcare system. In addition to the obvious clinical benefits, the prevention or delay of chronic hepatitis B liver disease progression in South Korea could result in substantial economic benefits to the whole society.

Trends and Patterns of Geographic Variation in Cardiovascular Mortality Among US Counties, 1980–2014

PubMed Central

Roth, Gregory A.; Dwyer-Lindgren, Laura; Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia; Stubbs, Rebecca W.; Morozoff, Chloe; Naghavi, Mohsen; Mokdad, Ali H.; Murray, Christopher J. L.

2017-01-01

IMPORTANCE In the United States, regional variation in cardiovascular mortality is well-known but county-level estimates for all major cardiovascular conditions have not been produced. OBJECTIVE To estimate age-standardized mortality rates from cardiovascular diseases by county. DESIGN AND SETTING Deidentified death records from the National Center for Health Statistics and population counts from the US Census Bureau, the National Center for Health Statistics, and the Human Mortality Database from 1980 through 2014 were used. Validated small area estimation models were used to estimate county-level mortality rates from all cardiovascular diseases, including ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, hypertensive heart disease, cardiomyopathy, atrial fibrillation and flutter, rheumatic heart disease, aortic aneurysm, peripheral arterial disease, endocarditis, and all other cardiovascular diseases combined. EXPOSURES The 3110 counties of residence. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Age-standardized cardiovascular disease mortality rates by county, year, sex, and cause. RESULTS From 1980 to 2014, cardiovascular diseases were the leading cause of death in the United States, although the mortality rate declined from 507.4 deaths per 100 000 persons in 1980 to 252.7 deaths per 100 000 persons in 2014, a relative decline of 50.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 49.5%–50.8%). In 2014, cardiovascular diseases accounted for more than 846 000 deaths (95% UI, 827–865 thousand deaths) and 11.7 million years of life lost (95% UI, 11.6–11.9 million years of life lost). The gap in age-standardized cardiovascular disease mortality rates between counties at the 10th and 90th percentile declined 14.6% from 172.1 deaths per 100 000 persons in 1980 to 147.0 deaths per 100 000 persons in 2014 (posterior probability of decline >99.9%). In 2014, the ratio between counties at the 90th and 10th percentile was 2.0 for ischemic heart disease (119.1 vs 235.7 deaths per 100 000 persons) and 1.7 for cerebrovascular disease (40.3 vs 68.1 deaths per 100 000 persons). For other cardiovascular disease causes, the ratio ranged from 1.4 (aortic aneurysm: 3.5 vs 5.1 deaths per 100 000 persons) to 4.2 (hypertensive heart disease: 4.3 vs 17.9 deaths per 100 000 persons). The largest concentration of counties with high cardiovascular disease mortality extended from southeastern Oklahoma along the Mississippi River Valley to eastern Kentucky. Several cardiovascular disease conditions were clustered substantially outside the South, including atrial fibrillation (Northwest), aortic aneurysm (Midwest), and endocarditis (Mountain West and Alaska). The lowest cardiovascular mortality rates were found in the counties surrounding San Francisco, California, central Colorado, northern Nebraska, central Minnesota, northeastern Virginia, and southern Florida. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Substantial differences exist between county ischemic heart disease and stroke mortality rates. Smaller differences exist for diseases of the myocardium, atrial fibrillation, aortic and peripheral arterial disease, rheumatic heart disease, and endocarditis. PMID:28510678

Data-driven models of dominantly-inherited Alzheimer's disease progression.

PubMed

Oxtoby, Neil P; Young, Alexandra L; Cash, David M; Benzinger, Tammie L S; Fagan, Anne M; Morris, John C; Bateman, Randall J; Fox, Nick C; Schott, Jonathan M; Alexander, Daniel C

2018-05-01

See Li and Donohue (doi:10.1093/brain/awy089) for a scientific commentary on this article.Dominantly-inherited Alzheimer's disease is widely hoped to hold the key to developing interventions for sporadic late onset Alzheimer's disease. We use emerging techniques in generative data-driven disease progression modelling to characterize dominantly-inherited Alzheimer's disease progression with unprecedented resolution, and without relying upon familial estimates of years until symptom onset. We retrospectively analysed biomarker data from the sixth data freeze of the Dominantly Inherited Alzheimer Network observational study, including measures of amyloid proteins and neurofibrillary tangles in the brain, regional brain volumes and cortical thicknesses, brain glucose hypometabolism, and cognitive performance from the Mini-Mental State Examination (all adjusted for age, years of education, sex, and head size, as appropriate). Data included 338 participants with known mutation status (211 mutation carriers in three subtypes: 163 PSEN1, 17 PSEN2, and 31 APP) and a baseline visit (age 19-66; up to four visits each, 1.1 ± 1.9 years in duration; spanning 30 years before, to 21 years after, parental age of symptom onset). We used an event-based model to estimate sequences of biomarker changes from baseline data across disease subtypes (mutation groups), and a differential equation model to estimate biomarker trajectories from longitudinal data (up to 66 mutation carriers, all subtypes combined). The two models concur that biomarker abnormality proceeds as follows: amyloid deposition in cortical then subcortical regions (∼24 ± 11 years before onset); phosphorylated tau (17 ± 8 years), tau and amyloid-β changes in cerebrospinal fluid; neurodegeneration first in the putamen and nucleus accumbens (up to 6 ± 2 years); then cognitive decline (7 ± 6 years), cerebral hypometabolism (4 ± 4 years), and further regional neurodegeneration. Our models predicted symptom onset more accurately than predictions that used familial estimates: root mean squared error of 1.35 years versus 5.54 years. The models reveal hidden detail on dominantly-inherited Alzheimer's disease progression, as well as providing data-driven systems for fine-grained patient staging and prediction of symptom onset with great potential utility in clinical trials.

Etiologic effects and optimal intakes of foods and nutrients for risk of cardiovascular diseases and diabetes: Systematic reviews and meta-analyses from the Nutrition and Chronic Diseases Expert Group (NutriCoDE)

PubMed Central

Peñalvo, Jose L.; Khatibzadeh, Shahab; Singh, Gitanjali M.; Rao, Mayuree; Fahimi, Saman; Powles, John; Mozaffarian, Dariush

2017-01-01

Background Dietary habits are major contributors to coronary heart disease, stroke, and diabetes. However, comprehensive evaluation of etiologic effects of dietary factors on cardiometabolic outcomes, their quantitative effects, and corresponding optimal intakes are not well-established. Objective To systematically review the evidence for effects of dietary factors on cardiometabolic diseases, including comprehensively assess evidence for causality; estimate magnitudes of etiologic effects; evaluate heterogeneity and potential for bias in these etiologic effects; and determine optimal population intake levels. Methods We utilized Bradford-Hill criteria to assess probable or convincing evidence for causal effects of multiple diet-cardiometabolic disease relationships. Etiologic effects were quantified from published or de novo meta-analyses of prospective studies or randomized clinical trials, incorporating standardized units, dose-response estimates, and heterogeneity by age and other characteristics. Potential for bias was assessed in validity analyses. Optimal intakes were determined by levels associated with lowest disease risk. Results We identified 10 foods and 7 nutrients with evidence for causal cardiometabolic effects, including protective effects of fruits, vegetables, beans/legumes, nuts/seeds, whole grains, fish, yogurt, fiber, seafood omega-3s, polyunsaturated fats, and potassium; and harms of unprocessed red meats, processed meats, sugar-sweetened beverages, glycemic load, trans-fats, and sodium. Proportional etiologic effects declined with age, but did not generally vary by sex. Established optimal population intakes were generally consistent with observed national intakes and major dietary guidelines. In validity analyses, the identified effects of individual dietary components were similar to quantified effects of dietary patterns on cardiovascular risk factors and hard endpoints. Conclusions These novel findings provide a comprehensive summary of causal evidence, quantitative etiologic effects, heterogeneity, and optimal intakes of major dietary factors for cardiometabolic diseases, informing disease impact estimation and policy planning and priorities. PMID:28448503

Cuffless Blood Pressure Estimation Based on Data-Oriented Continuous Health Monitoring System

PubMed Central

Kawanaka, Haruki; Oguri, Koji

2017-01-01

Measuring blood pressure continuously helps monitor health and also prevent lifestyle related diseases to extend the expectancy of healthy life. Blood pressure, which is nowadays used for monitoring patient, is one of the most useful indexes for prevention of lifestyle related diseases such as hypertension. However, continuously monitoring the blood pressure is unrealistic because of discomfort caused by the tightening of a cuff belt. We have earlier researched the data-oriented blood pressure estimation without using a cuff. Remarkably, our blood pressure estimation method only uses a photoplethysmograph sensor. Therefore, the application is flexible for sensor locations and measuring situations. In this paper, we describe the implementation of our estimation method, the launch of a cloud system which can collect and manage blood pressure data measured by a wristwatch-type photoplethysmograph sensor, and the construction of our applications to visualize life-log data including the time-series data of blood pressure. PMID:28523074

Application of 5-ALA for differential diagnostics of stomach diseases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okhotnikova, Natalja L.; Dadvany, Sergey A.; Kuszin, Michail I.; Kharnas, Sergey S.; Zavodnov, Victor Y.; Sklyanskaya, Olga A.; Loschenov, Victor B.; Volkova, Anna I.; Agafonov, Valery V.

2001-01-01

59 patients with stomach diseases including gastric cancer or polyp, gastritis, esofagus disease were investigated. Before gastroscopy all patients were given 5-ALA in doses 5mg, 10mg and 20mg per 1kg of body weight orally. Fluorescence diagnostics which estimates concentration of ALA-induced PPIX in regular and alternated tissues of gastric mucosa were carried out in 2-4 hours. Using of 5-ALA has shown high diagnostic effectiveness for differential diagnostics of stomach diseases. This technique has proved 10 diagnosis of cancer and revealed 15 malignant stomach diseases including 4 cancer in situ for patients with preliminary diagnosis of gastric ulcer. It also revealed 5 patients with enhanced fluorescence for which aimed biopsy has shown high degree of inflammation process. The latter were assigned as a risk group.

Risk estimates for persistent high-risk human papillomavirus infections as surrogate endpoints of progressive cervical disease critically depend on reference category: analysis of the combined prospective cohort of the New Independent States of the Former Soviet Union and Latin American Screening studies.

PubMed

Syrjänen, K; Shabalova, I; Naud, P; Kozachenko, V; Derchain, S; Zakharchenko, S; Roteli-Martins, C; Nerovjna, R; Longatto-Filho, A; Kljukina, L; Tatti, S; Branovskaja, M; Hammes, L S; Branca, M; Grunjberga, V; Eržen, M; Juschenko, A; Costa, S; Sarian, L; Podistov, J; Syrjänen, S

2011-06-01

To make feasible future clinical trials with new-generation human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines, novel virological surrogate endpoints of progressive disease have been proposed, including high-risk HPV (HR-HPV) persistence for six months (6M+) or 12 months (12M+). The risk estimates (relative risks [RRs]) of these 'virological endpoints' are influenced by several variables, not yet validated adequately. We compared the impact of three referent groups: (i) HPV-negative, (ii) HPV-transient, (iii) HPV-mixed outcome on the risk estimates for 6M+ or 12M+ HR-HPV persistence as predictors of progressive disease. Generalized estimating equation models were used to estimate the strength of 6M+ and 12M+ HR-HPV persistence with disease progression to squamous intraepithelial lesions (SILs), cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grade 1+, CIN2+, CIN/SIL endpoints, comparing three optional reference categories (i)-(iii) in a prospective sub-cohort of 1865 women from the combined New Independent States of the Former Soviet Union (NIS) and Latin American Screening (LAMS) studies cohort (n = 15,301). The RRs of these viral endpoints as predictors of progressive disease are affected by the length of viral persistence (6M+ or 12M+) and the surrogate endpoint (SIL, CIN1, CIN2, CIN/SIL). Most dramatic is the effect of the referent group used in risk estimates, with the HPV-negative referent group giving the highest and most consistent RRs for both 6M+ and 12M+ viral persistence, irrespective of which surrogate is used. In addition to deciding on whether to use 6M+ or 12M+ persistence criteria, and cytological, histological or combined surrogate endpoints, one should adopt the HPV-negative referent group as the gold standard in all future studies using viral persistence as the surrogate endpoint of progressive disease.

The impact of demographic change on the estimated future burden of infectious diseases: examples from hepatitis B and seasonal influenza in the Netherlands

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background For accurate estimation of the future burden of communicable diseases, the dynamics of the population at risk – namely population growth and population ageing – need to be taken into account. Accurate burden estimates are necessary for informing policy-makers regarding the planning of vaccination and other control, intervention, and prevention measures. Our aim was to qualitatively explore the impact of population ageing on the estimated future burden of seasonal influenza and hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in the Netherlands, in the period 2000–2030. Methods Population-level disease burden was quantified using the disability-adjusted life years (DALY) measure applied to all health outcomes following acute infection. We used national notification data, pre-defined disease progression models, and a simple model of demographic dynamics to investigate the impact of population ageing on the burden of seasonal influenza and HBV. Scenario analyses were conducted to explore the potential impact of intervention-associated changes in incidence rates. Results Including population dynamics resulted in increasing burden over the study period for influenza, whereas a relatively stable future burden was predicted for HBV. For influenza, the increase in DALYs was localised within YLL for the oldest age-groups (55 and older), and for HBV the effect of longer life expectancy in the future was offset by a reduction in incidence in the age-groups most at risk of infection. For both infections, the predicted disease burden was greater than if a static demography was assumed: 1.0 (in 2000) to 2.3-fold (in 2030) higher DALYs for influenza; 1.3 (in 2000) to 1.5-fold (in 2030) higher for HBV. Conclusions There are clear, but diverging effects of an ageing population on the estimated disease burden of influenza and HBV in the Netherlands. Replacing static assumptions with a dynamic demographic approach appears essential for deriving realistic burden estimates for informing health policy. PMID:23217094

2009 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures.

PubMed

2009-05-01

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the sixth leading cause of all deaths in the United States, and the fifth leading cause of death in Americans aged 65 and older. Whereas other major causes of death have been on the decrease, deaths attributable to AD have been rising dramatically. Between 2000 and 2006, heart-disease deaths decreased nearly 12%, stroke deaths decreased 18%, and prostate cancer-related deaths decreased 14%, whereas deaths attributable to AD increased 47%. An estimated 5.3 million Americans have AD; the approximately 200,000 persons under age 65 years with AD comprise the younger-onset AD population. Every 70 seconds, someone in America develops AD; by 2050, this time is expected to decrease to every 33 seconds. Over the coming decades, the "baby-boom" population is projected to add 10 million people to these numbers. In 2050, the incidence of AD is expected to approach nearly a million people per year, with a total estimated prevalence of 11 to 16 million people. Significant cost implications related to AD and other dementias include an estimated $148 billion annually in direct (Medicare/Medicaid) and indirect (e.g., decreased business productivity) costs. Not included in these figures is the $94 billion in unpaid services to individuals with AD provided annually by an estimated 10 million caregivers. Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is an important component in the continuum from healthy cognition to dementia. Understanding which individuals with MCI are at highest risk for eventually developing AD is key to our ultimate goal of preventing AD. This report provides information meant to increase an understanding of the public-health impact of AD, including incidence and prevalence, mortality, lifetime risks, costs, and impact on family caregivers. This report also sets the stage for a better understanding of the relationship between MCI and AD.

Stillbirth With Group B Streptococcus Disease Worldwide: Systematic Review and Meta-analyses.

PubMed

Seale, Anna C; Blencowe, Hannah; Bianchi-Jassir, Fiorella; Embleton, Nicholas; Bassat, Quique; Ordi, Jaume; Menéndez, Clara; Cutland, Clare; Briner, Carmen; Berkley, James A; Lawn, Joy E; Baker, Carol J; Bartlett, Linda; Gravett, Michael G; Heath, Paul T; Ip, Margaret; Le Doare, Kirsty; Rubens, Craig E; Saha, Samir K; Schrag, Stephanie; Meulen, Ajoke Sobanjo-Ter; Vekemans, Johan; Madhi, Shabir A

2017-11-06

There are an estimated 2.6 million stillbirths each year, many of which are due to infections, especially in low- and middle-income contexts. This paper, the eighth in a series on the burden of group B streptococcal (GBS) disease, aims to estimate the percentage of stillbirths associated with GBS disease. We conducted systematic literature reviews (PubMed/Medline, Embase, Literatura Latino-Americana e do Caribe em Ciências da Saúde, World Health Organization Library Information System, and Scopus) and sought unpublished data from investigator groups. Studies were included if they reported original data on stillbirths (predominantly ≥28 weeks' gestation or ≥1000 g, with GBS isolated from a sterile site) as a percentage of total stillbirths. We did meta-analyses to derive pooled estimates of the percentage of GBS-associated stillbirths, regionally and worldwide for recent datasets. We included 14 studies from any period, 5 with recent data (after 2000). There were no data from Asia. We estimated that 1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0-2%) of all stillbirths in developed countries and 4% (95% CI, 2%-6%) in Africa were associated with GBS. GBS is likely an important cause of stillbirth, especially in Africa. However, data are limited in terms of geographic spread, with no data from Asia, and cases worldwide are probably underestimated due to incomplete case ascertainment. More data, using standardized, systematic methods, are critical, particularly from low- and middle-income contexts where the highest burden of stillbirths occurs. These data are essential to inform interventions, such as maternal GBS vaccination. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

Protocol for the 'e-Nudge trial': a randomised controlled trial of electronic feedback to reduce the cardiovascular risk of individuals in general practice [ISRCTN64828380

PubMed Central

Holt, Tim A; Thorogood, Margaret; Griffiths, Frances; Munday, Stephen

2006-01-01

Background Cardiovascular disease (including coronary heart disease and stroke) is a major cause of death and disability in the United Kingdom, and is to a large extent preventable, by lifestyle modification and drug therapy. The recent standardisation of electronic codes for cardiovascular risk variables through the United Kingdom's new General Practice contract provides an opportunity for the application of risk algorithms to identify high risk individuals. This randomised controlled trial will test the benefits of an automated system of alert messages and practice searches to identify those at highest risk of cardiovascular disease in primary care databases. Design Patients over 50 years old in practice databases will be randomised to the intervention group that will receive the alert messages and searches, and a control group who will continue to receive usual care. In addition to those at high estimated risk, potentially high risk patients will be identified who have insufficient data to allow a risk estimate to be made. Further groups identified will be those with possible undiagnosed diabetes, based either on elevated past recorded blood glucose measurements, or an absence of recent blood glucose measurement in those with established cardiovascular disease. Outcome measures The intervention will be applied for two years, and outcome data will be collected for a further year. The primary outcome measure will be the annual rate of cardiovascular events in the intervention and control arms of the study. Secondary measures include the proportion of patients at high estimated cardiovascular risk, the proportion of patients with missing data for a risk estimate, and the proportion with undefined diabetes status at the end of the trial. PMID:16646967

Schistosomiasis

PubMed Central

Tucker, Matthew S.; Karunaratne, Laksiri B.; Lewis, Fred A.; Freitas, Tori C.; Liang, Yung-san

2014-01-01

Schistosomiasis is the second most important parasitic disease in the world in terms of public health impact. Globally, it is estimated that the disease affects over 200 million people and is responsible for 200,000 deaths each year. The three major schistosomes infecting humans are Schistosoma mansoni, S. japonicum, and S. haematobium. Much immunological research has focused on schistosomiasis because of the pathological effects of the disease, which include liver fibrosis and bladder dysfunction. This Unit covers a wide range of aspects of maintaining the life cycles of these parasites, including preparation of schistosome egg antigen, maintenance of intermediate snail hosts, infection of the definitive and intermediate hosts, and others. The Unit primariiy focues on S. mansoni, but also includes coverage of S. japonicum and S. haematobium life cycles. PMID:18432750

Factor analysis of an instrument to measure the impact of disease on daily life.

PubMed

Pedrosa, Rafaela Batista Dos Santos; Rodrigues, Roberta Cunha Matheus; Padilha, Kátia Melissa; Gallani, Maria Cecília Bueno Jayme; Alexandre, Neusa Maria Costa

2016-01-01

to verify the structure of factors of an instrument to measure the Heart Valve Disease Impact on Daily Life (IDCV) when applied to coronary artery disease patients. the study included 153 coronary artery disease patients undergoing outpatient follow-up care. The IDCV structure of factors was initially assessed by means of confirmatory factor analysis and, subsequently, by exploratory factor analysis. The Varimax rotation method was used to estimate the main components of analysis, eigenvalues greater than one for extraction of factors, and factor loading greater than 0.40 for selection of items. Internal consistency was estimated using Cronbach's alpha coefficient. confirmatory factor analysis did not confirm the original structure of factors of the IDCV. Exploratory factor analysis showed three dimensions, which together explained 78% of the measurement variance. future studies with expansion of case selection are necessary to confirm the IDCV new structure of factors.

The Chinese American Eye Study: Design and Methods

PubMed Central

Varma, Rohit; Hsu, Chunyi; Wang, Dandan; Torres, Mina; Azen, Stanley P.

2016-01-01

Purpose To summarize the study design, operational strategies and procedures of the Chinese American Eye Study (CHES), a population-based assessment of the prevalence of visual impairment, ocular disease, and visual functioning in Chinese Americans. Methods This population-based, cross-sectional study, included 4,570 Chinese, 50 years and older, residing in the city of Monterey Park, California. Each eligible participant completed a detailed interview and eye examination. The interview included an assessment of demographic, behavioral, and ocular risk factors and health-related and vision-related quality of life. The eye examination included measurements of visual acuity, intraocular pressure, visual fields, fundus and optic disc photography, a detailed anterior and posterior segment examination, and measurements of blood pressure, glycosylated hemoglobin levels, and blood glucose levels. Results The objectives of the CHES are to obtain prevalence estimates of visual impairment, refractive error, diabetic retinopathy, open-angle and angle-closure glaucoma, lens opacities, and age-related macular degeneration in Chinese-Americans. In addition, outcomes include effect estimates for risk factors associated with eye diseases. Lastly, CHES will investigate the genetic determinates of myopia and glaucoma. Conclusion The CHES will provide information about the prevalence and risk factors of ocular diseases in one of the fastest growing minority groups in the United States. PMID:24044409

Economic Burden of Occupational Injury and Illness in the United States

PubMed Central

Leigh, J Paul

2011-01-01

Context The allocation of scarce health care resources requires a knowledge of disease costs. Whereas many studies of a variety of diseases are available, few focus on job-related injuries and illnesses. This article provides estimates of the national costs of occupational injury and illness among civilians in the United States for 2007. Methods This study provides estimates of both the incidence of fatal and nonfatal injuries and nonfatal illnesses and the prevalence of fatal diseases as well as both medical and indirect (productivity) costs. To generate the estimates, I combined primary and secondary data sources with parameters from the literature and model assumptions. My primary sources were injury, disease, employment, and inflation data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) as well as costs data from the National Council on Compensation Insurance and the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project. My secondary sources were the National Academy of Social Insurance, literature estimates of Attributable Fractions (AF) of diseases with occupational components, and national estimates for all health care costs. Critical model assumptions were applied to the underreporting of injuries, wage-replacement rates, and AFs. Total costs were calculated by multiplying the number of cases by the average cost per case. A sensitivity analysis tested for the effects of the most consequential assumptions. Numerous improvements over earlier studies included reliance on BLS data for government workers and ten specific cancer sites rather than only one broad cancer category. Findings The number of fatal and nonfatal injuries in 2007 was estimated to be more than 5,600 and almost 8,559,000, respectively, at a cost of $6 billion and $186 billion. The number of fatal and nonfatal illnesses was estimated at more than 53,000 and nearly 427,000, respectively, with cost estimates of $46 billion and $12 billion. For injuries and diseases combined, medical cost estimates were $67 billion (27% of the total), and indirect costs were almost $183 billion (73%). Injuries comprised 77 percent of the total, and diseases accounted for 23 percent. The total estimated costs were approximately $250 billion, compared with the inflation-adjusted cost of $217 billion for 1992. Conclusions The medical and indirect costs of occupational injuries and illnesses are sizable, at least as large as the cost of cancer. Workers’ compensation covers less than 25 percent of these costs, so all members of society share the burden. The contributions of job-related injuries and illnesses to the overall cost of medical care and ill health are greater than generally assumed. PMID:22188353

Decision-model estimation of the age-specific disability weight for schistosomiasis japonica: a systematic review of the literature.

PubMed

Finkelstein, Julia L; Schleinitz, Mark D; Carabin, Hélène; McGarvey, Stephen T

2008-03-05

Schistosomiasis is among the most prevalent parasitic infections worldwide. However, current Global Burden of Disease (GBD) disability-adjusted life year estimates indicate that its population-level impact is negligible. Recent studies suggest that GBD methodologies may significantly underestimate the burden of parasitic diseases, including schistosomiasis. Furthermore, strain-specific disability weights have not been established for schistosomiasis, and the magnitude of human disease burden due to Schistosoma japonicum remains controversial. We used a decision model to quantify an alternative disability weight estimate of the burden of human disease due to S. japonicum. We reviewed S. japonicum morbidity data, and constructed decision trees for all infected persons and two age-specific strata, <15 years (y) and > or =15 y. We conducted stochastic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses for each model. Infection with S. japonicum was associated with an average disability weight of 0.132, with age-specific disability weights of 0.098 (<15 y) and 0.186 (> or =15 y). Re-estimated disability weights were seven to 46 times greater than current GBD measures; no simulations produced disability weight estimates lower than 0.009. Nutritional morbidities had the greatest contribution to the S. japonicum disability weight in the <15 y model, whereas major organ pathologies were the most critical variables in the older age group. GBD disability weights for schistosomiasis urgently need to be revised, and species-specific disability weights should be established. Even a marginal increase in current estimates would result in a substantial rise in the estimated global burden of schistosomiasis, and have considerable implications for public health prioritization and resource allocation for schistosomiasis research, monitoring, and control.

Decision-Model Estimation of the Age-Specific Disability Weight for Schistosomiasis Japonica: A Systematic Review of the Literature

PubMed Central

Finkelstein, Julia L.; Schleinitz, Mark D.; Carabin, Hélène; McGarvey, Stephen T.

2008-01-01

Schistosomiasis is among the most prevalent parasitic infections worldwide. However, current Global Burden of Disease (GBD) disability-adjusted life year estimates indicate that its population-level impact is negligible. Recent studies suggest that GBD methodologies may significantly underestimate the burden of parasitic diseases, including schistosomiasis. Furthermore, strain-specific disability weights have not been established for schistosomiasis, and the magnitude of human disease burden due to Schistosoma japonicum remains controversial. We used a decision model to quantify an alternative disability weight estimate of the burden of human disease due to S. japonicum. We reviewed S. japonicum morbidity data, and constructed decision trees for all infected persons and two age-specific strata, <15 years (y) and ≥15 y. We conducted stochastic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses for each model. Infection with S. japonicum was associated with an average disability weight of 0.132, with age-specific disability weights of 0.098 (<15 y) and 0.186 (≥15 y). Re-estimated disability weights were seven to 46 times greater than current GBD measures; no simulations produced disability weight estimates lower than 0.009. Nutritional morbidities had the greatest contribution to the S. japonicum disability weight in the <15 y model, whereas major organ pathologies were the most critical variables in the older age group. GBD disability weights for schistosomiasis urgently need to be revised, and species-specific disability weights should be established. Even a marginal increase in current estimates would result in a substantial rise in the estimated global burden of schistosomiasis, and have considerable implications for public health prioritization and resource allocation for schistosomiasis research, monitoring, and control. PMID:18320018

Quantifying and estimating the predictive accuracy for censored time-to-event data with competing risks.

PubMed

Wu, Cai; Li, Liang

2018-05-15

This paper focuses on quantifying and estimating the predictive accuracy of prognostic models for time-to-event outcomes with competing events. We consider the time-dependent discrimination and calibration metrics, including the receiver operating characteristics curve and the Brier score, in the context of competing risks. To address censoring, we propose a unified nonparametric estimation framework for both discrimination and calibration measures, by weighting the censored subjects with the conditional probability of the event of interest given the observed data. The proposed method can be extended to time-dependent predictive accuracy metrics constructed from a general class of loss functions. We apply the methodology to a data set from the African American Study of Kidney Disease and Hypertension to evaluate the predictive accuracy of a prognostic risk score in predicting end-stage renal disease, accounting for the competing risk of pre-end-stage renal disease death, and evaluate its numerical performance in extensive simulation studies. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The global burden of skin disease in 2010: an analysis of the prevalence and impact of skin conditions.

PubMed

Hay, Roderick J; Johns, Nicole E; Williams, Hywel C; Bolliger, Ian W; Dellavalle, Robert P; Margolis, David J; Marks, Robin; Naldi, Luigi; Weinstock, Martin A; Wulf, Sarah K; Michaud, Catherine; J L Murray, Christopher; Naghavi, Mohsen

2014-06-01

The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2010 estimated the GBD attributable to 15 categories of skin disease from 1990 to 2010 for 187 countries. For each of the following diseases, we performed systematic literature reviews and analyzed resulting data: eczema, psoriasis, acne vulgaris, pruritus, alopecia areata, decubitus ulcer, urticaria, scabies, fungal skin diseases, impetigo, abscess, and other bacterial skin diseases, cellulitis, viral warts, molluscum contagiosum, and non-melanoma skin cancer. We used disability estimates to determine nonfatal burden. Three skin conditions, fungal skin diseases, other skin and subcutaneous diseases, and acne were in the top 10 most prevalent diseases worldwide in 2010, and eight fell into the top 50; these additional five skin problems were pruritus, eczema, impetigo, scabies, and molluscum contagiosum. Collectively, skin conditions ranged from the 2nd to 11th leading cause of years lived with disability at the country level. At the global level, skin conditions were the fourth leading cause of nonfatal disease burden. Using more data than has been used previously, the burden due to these diseases is enormous in both high- and low-income countries. These results argue strongly to include skin disease prevention and treatment in future global health strategies as a matter of urgency.

Cost analysis of an integrated vaccine-preventable disease surveillance system in Costa Rica.

PubMed

Toscano, C M; Vijayaraghavan, M; Salazar-Bolaños, H M; Bolaños-Acuña, H M; Ruiz-González, A I; Barrantes-Solis, T; Fernández-Vargas, I; Panero, M S; de Oliveira, L H; Hyde, T B

2013-07-02

Following World Health Organization recommendations set forth in the Global Framework for Immunization Monitoring and Surveillance, Costa Rica in 2009 became the first country to implement integrated vaccine-preventable disease (iVPD) surveillance, with support from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO). As surveillance for diseases prevented by new vaccines is integrated into existing surveillance systems, these systems could cost more than routine surveillance for VPDs targeted by the Expanded Program on Immunization. We estimate the costs associated with establishing and subsequently operating the iVPD surveillance system at a pilot site in Costa Rica. We retrospectively collected data on costs incurred by the institutions supporting iVPD surveillance during the preparatory (January 2007 through August 2009) and implementation (September 2009 through August 2010) phases of the iVPD surveillance project in Costa Rica. These data were used to estimate costs for personnel, meetings, infrastructure, office equipment and supplies, transportation, and laboratory facilities. Costs incurred by each of the collaborating institutions were also estimated. During the preparatory phase, the estimated total cost was 128,000 U.S. dollars (US$), including 64% for personnel costs. The preparatory phase was supported by CDC and PAHO. The estimated cost for 1 year of implementation was US$ 420,000, including 58% for personnel costs, 28% for laboratory costs, and 14% for meeting, infrastructure, office, and transportation costs combined. The national reference laboratory and the PAHO Costa Rica office incurred 64% of total costs, and other local institutions supporting iVPD surveillance incurred the remaining 36%. Countries planning to implement iVPD surveillance will require adequate investments in human resources, laboratories, data management, reporting, and investigation. Our findings will be valuable for decision makers and donors planning and implementing similar strategies in other countries. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cost analysis of an integrated vaccine-preventable disease surveillance system in Costa Rica✩

PubMed Central

Toscano, C.M.; Vijayaraghavan, M.; Salazar-Bolaños, H.M.; Bolaños-Acuña, H.M.; Ruiz-González, A.I.; Barrantes-Solis, T.; Fernández-Vargas, I.; Panero, M.S.; de Oliveira, L.H.; Hyde, T.B.

2015-01-01

Introduction Following World Health Organization recommendations set forth in the Global Framework for Immunization Monitoring and Surveillance, Costa Rica in 2009 became the first country to implement integrated vaccine-preventable disease (iVPD) surveillance, with support from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO). As surveillance for diseases prevented by new vaccines is integrated into existing surveillance systems, these systems could cost more than routine surveillance for VPDs targeted by the Expanded Program on Immunization. Objectives We estimate the costs associated with establishing and subsequently operating the iVPD surveillance system at a pilot site in Costa Rica. Methods We retrospectively collected data on costs incurred by the institutions supporting iVPD surveillance during the preparatory (January 2007 through August 2009) and implementation (September 2009 through August 2010) phases of the iVPD surveillance project in Costa Rica. These data were used to estimate costs for personnel, meetings, infrastructure, office equipment and supplies, transportation, and laboratory facilities. Costs incurred by each of the collaborating institutions were also estimated. Results During the preparatory phase, the estimated total cost was 128,000 U.S. dollars (US$), including 64% for personnel costs. The preparatory phase was supported by CDC and PAHO. The estimated cost for 1 year of implementation was US$ 420,000, including 58% for personnel costs, 28% for laboratory costs, and 14% for meeting, infrastructure, office, and transportation costs combined. The national reference laboratory and the PAHO Costa Rica office incurred 64% of total costs, and other local institutions supporting iVPD surveillance incurred the remaining 36%. Conclusions Countries planning to implement iVPD surveillance will require adequate investments in human resources, laboratories, data management, reporting, and investigation. Our findings will be valuable for decision makers and donors planning and implementing similar strategies in other countries. PMID:23777698

Costs of providing infusion therapy for patients with inflammatory bowel disease in a hospital-based infusion center setting.

PubMed

Afzali, Anita; Ogden, Kristine; Friedman, Michael L; Chao, Jingdong; Wang, Anthony

2017-04-01

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) (e.g. ulcerative colitis [UC] and Crohn's disease [CD]) severely impacts patient quality-of-life. Moderate-to-severe disease is often treated with biologics requiring infusion therapy, adding incremental costs beyond drug costs. This study evaluates US hospital-based infusion services costs for treatment of UC or CD patients receiving infliximab or vedolizumab therapy. A model was developed, estimating annual costs of providing monitored infusions using an activity-based costing framework approach. Multiple sources (published literature, treatment product inserts) informed base-case model input estimates. The total modeled per patient infusion therapy costs in Year 1 with infliximab and vedolizumab was $38,782 and $41,320, respectively, and Year 2+, $49,897 and $36,197, respectively. Drug acquisition cost was the largest total costs driver (90-93%), followed by costs associated with hospital-based infusion provision: labor (53-56%, non-drug costs), allocated overhead (23%, non-drug costs), non-labor (23%, non-drug costs), and laboratory (7-10%, non-drug costs). Limitations included reliance on published estimates, base-case cost estimates infusion drug, and supplies, not accounting for volume pricing, assumption of a small hospital infusion center, and that, given the model adopts the hospital perspective, costs to the patient were not included in infusion administration cost base-case estimates. This model is an early step towards a framework to fully analyze infusion therapies' associated costs. Given the lack of published data, it would be beneficial for hospital administrators to assess total costs and trade-offs with alternative means of providing biologic therapies. This analysis highlights the value to hospital administrators of assessing cost associated with infusion patient mix to make more informed resource allocation decisions. As the landscape for reimbursement changes, tools for evaluating the costs of infusion therapy may help hospital administrators make informed choices and weigh trade-offs associated with providing infusion services for IBD patients.

A multilevel model for cardiovascular disease prevalence in the US and its application to micro area prevalence estimates.

PubMed

Congdon, Peter

2009-01-30

Estimates of disease prevalence for small areas are increasingly required for the allocation of health funds according to local need. Both individual level and geographic risk factors are likely to be relevant to explaining prevalence variations, and in turn relevant to the procedure for small area prevalence estimation. Prevalence estimates are of particular importance for major chronic illnesses such as cardiovascular disease. A multilevel prevalence model for cardiovascular outcomes is proposed that incorporates both survey information on patient risk factors and the effects of geographic location. The model is applied to derive micro area prevalence estimates, specifically estimates of cardiovascular disease for Zip Code Tabulation Areas in the USA. The model incorporates prevalence differentials by age, sex, ethnicity and educational attainment from the 2005 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey. Influences of geographic context are modelled at both county and state level, with the county effects relating to poverty and urbanity. State level influences are modelled using a random effects approach that allows both for spatial correlation and spatial isolates. To assess the importance of geographic variables, three types of model are compared: a model with person level variables only; a model with geographic effects that do not interact with person attributes; and a full model, allowing for state level random effects that differ by ethnicity. There is clear evidence that geographic effects improve statistical fit. Geographic variations in disease prevalence partly reflect the demographic composition of area populations. However, prevalence variations may also show distinct geographic 'contextual' effects. The present study demonstrates by formal modelling methods that improved explanation is obtained by allowing for distinct geographic effects (for counties and states) and for interaction between geographic and person variables. Thus an appropriate methodology to estimate prevalence at small area level should include geographic effects as well as person level demographic variables.

A multilevel model for cardiovascular disease prevalence in the US and its application to micro area prevalence estimates

PubMed Central

Congdon, Peter

2009-01-01

Background Estimates of disease prevalence for small areas are increasingly required for the allocation of health funds according to local need. Both individual level and geographic risk factors are likely to be relevant to explaining prevalence variations, and in turn relevant to the procedure for small area prevalence estimation. Prevalence estimates are of particular importance for major chronic illnesses such as cardiovascular disease. Methods A multilevel prevalence model for cardiovascular outcomes is proposed that incorporates both survey information on patient risk factors and the effects of geographic location. The model is applied to derive micro area prevalence estimates, specifically estimates of cardiovascular disease for Zip Code Tabulation Areas in the USA. The model incorporates prevalence differentials by age, sex, ethnicity and educational attainment from the 2005 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey. Influences of geographic context are modelled at both county and state level, with the county effects relating to poverty and urbanity. State level influences are modelled using a random effects approach that allows both for spatial correlation and spatial isolates. Results To assess the importance of geographic variables, three types of model are compared: a model with person level variables only; a model with geographic effects that do not interact with person attributes; and a full model, allowing for state level random effects that differ by ethnicity. There is clear evidence that geographic effects improve statistical fit. Conclusion Geographic variations in disease prevalence partly reflect the demographic composition of area populations. However, prevalence variations may also show distinct geographic 'contextual' effects. The present study demonstrates by formal modelling methods that improved explanation is obtained by allowing for distinct geographic effects (for counties and states) and for interaction between geographic and person variables. Thus an appropriate methodology to estimate prevalence at small area level should include geographic effects as well as person level demographic variables. PMID:19183458

What does my patient's coronary artery calcium score mean? Combining information from the coronary artery calcium score with information from conventional risk factors to estimate coronary heart disease risk

PubMed Central

Pletcher, Mark J; Tice, Jeffrey A; Pignone, Michael; McCulloch, Charles; Callister, Tracy Q; Browner, Warren S

2004-01-01

Background The coronary artery calcium (CAC) score is an independent predictor of coronary heart disease. We sought to combine information from the CAC score with information from conventional cardiac risk factors to produce post-test risk estimates, and to determine whether the score may add clinically useful information. Methods We measured the independent cross-sectional associations between conventional cardiac risk factors and the CAC score among asymptomatic persons referred for non-contrast electron beam computed tomography. Using the resulting multivariable models and published CAC score-specific relative risk estimates, we estimated post-test coronary heart disease risk in a number of different scenarios. Results Among 9341 asymptomatic study participants (age 35–88 years, 40% female), we found that conventional coronary heart disease risk factors including age, male sex, self-reported hypertension, diabetes and high cholesterol were independent predictors of the CAC score, and we used the resulting multivariable models for predicting post-test risk in a variety of scenarios. Our models predicted, for example, that a 60-year-old non-smoking non-diabetic women with hypertension and high cholesterol would have a 47% chance of having a CAC score of zero, reducing her 10-year risk estimate from 15% (per Framingham) to 6–9%; if her score were over 100, however (a 17% chance), her risk estimate would be markedly higher (25–51% in 10 years). In low risk scenarios, the CAC score is very likely to be zero or low, and unlikely to change management. Conclusion Combining information from the CAC score with information from conventional risk factors can change assessment of coronary heart disease risk to an extent that may be clinically important, especially when the pre-test 10-year risk estimate is intermediate. The attached spreadsheet makes these calculations easy. PMID:15327691

The management of cancer patients with heart disease.

PubMed

Kawecka-Jaszcz, Kalina; Bednarek, Agnieszka

2012-01-01

Cardiovascular disease and cancer are the two leading causes of death in the world, therefore a patient may have cancer, but also heart disease. Intensive cancer treatment, including chemotherapy and radiotherapy, improves the prognosis, reduces mortality and lengthens patients' lives but it is also associated with cardiotoxicity. This paper describes cardiovascular risk factors and methods for the estimation of individual risk before initiation of oncology treatment in subjects at high baseline risk of heart disease. We also describe the way of monitoring patients receiving potentially cardiotoxic treatment and the management of congestive heart failure, coronary artery disease and hypertension in these subjects.

Disease burden attributed to alcohol: How methodological advances in the Global Burden of Disease 2013 study have changed the estimates in Sweden.

PubMed

Kellerborg, Klas; Danielsson, Anna-Karin; Allebeck, Peter; Coates, Matthew M; Agardh, Emilie

2016-08-01

The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study continuously refines its estimates as new data and methods become available. In the latest iteration of the study, GBD 2013, changes were made related to the disease burden attributed to alcohol. The aim of this study was to briefly present these changes and to compare the disease burden attributed to alcohol in Swedish men and women in 2010 using previous and updated methods. In the GBD study, the contribution of alcohol to the burden of disease is estimated by theoretically assessing how much of the disease burden can be avoided by reducing the consumption of alcohol to zero. The updated methods mainly consider improved measurements of alcohol consumption, including less severe alcohol dependence, assigning the most severe injuries and removing the protective effect of drinking on cardiovascular diseases if combined with binge drinking. The overall disease burden attributed to alcohol in 2010 increased by 14% when using the updated methods. Women accounted for this overall increase, mainly because the updated methods led to an overall higher alcohol consumption in women. By contrast, the overall burden decreased in men, one reason being the lower overall alcohol consumption with the new methods. In men, the inclusion of less severe alcohol dependence resulted in a large decrease in the alcohol attributed disease burden. This was, however, evened out to a great extent by the increase in cardiovascular disease and injuries. CONCLUSIONS WHEN USING THE UPDATED GBD METHODS, THE OVERALL DISEASE BURDEN ATTRIBUTED TO ALCOHOL INCREASED IN WOMEN, BUT NOT IN MEN. © 2016 the Nordic Societies of Public Health.

Perceptual Measures of Speech from Individuals with Parkinson's Disease and Multiple Sclerosis: Intelligibility and beyond

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sussman, Joan E.; Tjaden, Kris

2012-01-01

Purpose: The primary purpose of this study was to compare percent correct word and sentence intelligibility scores for individuals with multiple sclerosis (MS) and Parkinson's disease (PD) with scaled estimates of speech severity obtained for a reading passage. Method: Speech samples for 78 talkers were judged, including 30 speakers with MS, 16…

The Burden of Exposure–Related Diffuse Lung Disease

PubMed Central

Goldyn, Sheryl R.; Condos, Rany; Rom, William N.

2013-01-01

Estimating the burden of exposure-related diffuse lung disease in terms of health effects and economic burden remains challenging. Labor statistics are inadequate to define the scope of the problem, and few studies have analyzed the prevalence of exposure-related illnesses and the subsequent health care cost. Well-defined exposures, such as those associated with coal mines, asbestos mines, and stonecutting, have led to more accurate assessment of prevalence and cost. As governmental regulation of workplace exposure has increased, the prevalence of diseases such as silicosis and coal workers’ pneumoconiosis has diminished. However, the health and economic effects of diseases with long latency periods, such as asbestosis and mesothelioma, continue to increase in the short term. Newer exposures, such as those related to air pollution, nylon flock, and the World Trade Center collapse, have added to these costs. As a result, estimates of cost for occupational diseases, including respiratory illnesses, exceed $26 billion annually, and the true economic burden is likely much higher. PMID:19221957

Loudness perception and speech intensity control in Parkinson's disease.

PubMed

Clark, Jenna P; Adams, Scott G; Dykstra, Allyson D; Moodie, Shane; Jog, Mandar

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to examine loudness perception in individuals with hypophonia and Parkinson's disease. The participants included 17 individuals with hypophonia related to Parkinson's disease (PD) and 25 age-equivalent controls. The three loudness perception tasks included a magnitude estimation procedure involving a sentence spoken at 60, 65, 70, 75 and 80 dB SPL, an imitation task involving a sentence spoken at 60, 65, 70, 75 and 80 dB SPL, and a magnitude production procedure involving the production of a sentence at five different loudness levels (habitual, two and four times louder and two and four times quieter). The participants with PD produced a significantly different pattern and used a more restricted range than the controls in their perception of speech loudness, imitation of speech intensity, and self-generated estimates of speech loudness. The results support a speech loudness perception deficit in PD involving an abnormal perception of externally generated and self-generated speech intensity. Readers will recognize that individuals with hypophonia related to Parkinson's disease may demonstrate a speech loudness perception deficit involving the abnormal perception of externally generated and self-generated speech intensity. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sample size for positive and negative predictive value in diagnostic research using case–control designs

PubMed Central

Steinberg, David M.; Fine, Jason; Chappell, Rick

2009-01-01

Important properties of diagnostic methods are their sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV). These methods are typically assessed via case–control samples, which include one cohort of cases known to have the disease and a second control cohort of disease-free subjects. Such studies give direct estimates of sensitivity and specificity but only indirect estimates of PPV and NPV, which also depend on the disease prevalence in the tested population. The motivating example arises in assay testing, where usage is contemplated in populations with known prevalences. Further instances include biomarker development, where subjects are selected from a population with known prevalence and assessment of PPV and NPV is crucial, and the assessment of diagnostic imaging procedures for rare diseases, where case–control studies may be the only feasible designs. We develop formulas for optimal allocation of the sample between the case and control cohorts and for computing sample size when the goal of the study is to prove that the test procedure exceeds pre-stated bounds for PPV and/or NPV. Surprisingly, the optimal sampling schemes for many purposes are highly unbalanced, even when information is desired on both PPV and NPV. PMID:18556677

[An early warning method of cucumber downy mildew in solar greenhouse based on canopy temperature and humidity modeling].

PubMed

Wang, Hui; Li, Mei-lan; Xu, Jian-ping; Chen, Mei-xiang; Li, Wen-yong; Li, Ming

2015-10-01

The greenhouse environmental parameters can be used to establish greenhouse nirco-climate model, which can combine with disease model for early warning, with aim of ecological controlling diseases to reduce pesticide usage, and protecting greenhouse ecological environment to ensure the agricultural product quality safety. Greenhouse canopy leaf temperature and air relative humidity, models were established using energy balance and moisture balance principle inside the greenhouse. The leaf temperature model considered radiation heat transfer between the greenhouse crops, wall, soil and cover, plus the heat exchange caused by indoor net radiation and crop transpiration. Furthermore, the water dynamic balance in the greenhouse including leaf transpiration, soil evaporation, cover and leaf water vapor condensation, was considered to develop a relative humidity model. The primary infection and latent period warning models for cucumber downy mildew (Pseudoperonospora cubensis) were validated using the results of the leaf temperature and relative humidity model, and then the estimated disease occurrence date of cucumber downy mildew was compared with actual disease occurrence date of field observation. Finally, the results were verified by the measured temperature and humidity data of September and October, 2014. The results showed that the root mean square deviations (RMSDs) of the measured and estimated leaf temperature were 0.016 and 0.024 °C, and the RMSDs of the measured and estimated air relative humidity were 0.15% and 0.13%, respectively. Combining the result of estimated temperature and humidity models, a cucumber disease early warning system was established to forecast the date of disease occurrence, which met with the real date. Thus, this work could provide the micro-environment data for the early warning system of cucumber diseases in solar greenhouses.

Conditional survival estimates improve over time for patients with advanced melanoma: results from a population-based analysis.

PubMed

Xing, Yan; Chang, George J; Hu, Chung-Yuan; Askew, Robert L; Ross, Merrick I; Gershenwald, Jeffrey E; Lee, Jeffrey E; Mansfield, Paul F; Lucci, Anthony; Cormier, Janice N

2010-05-01

Conditional survival (CS) has emerged as a clinically relevant measure of prognosis for cancer survivors. The objective of this analysis was to provide melanoma-specific CS estimates to help clinicians promote more informed patient decision making. Patients with melanoma and at least 5 years of follow-up were identified from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results registry (1988-2000). By using the methods of Kaplan and Meier, stage-specific, 5-year CS estimates were independently calculated for survivors for each year after diagnosis. Stage-specific multivariate Cox regression models including baseline survivor functions were used to calculate adjusted melanoma-specific CS for different subgroups of patients further stratified by age, gender, race, marital status, anatomic tumor location, and tumor histology. Five-year CS estimates for patients with stage I disease remained constant at 97% annually, while for patients with stages II, III, and IV disease, 5-year CS estimates from time 0 (diagnosis) to 5 years improved from 72% to 86%, 51% to 87%, and 19% to 84%, respectively. Multivariate CS analysis revealed that differences in stages II through IV CS based on age, gender, and race decreased over time. Five-year melanoma-specific CS estimates improve dramatically over time for survivors with advanced stages of disease. These prognostic data are critical to patients for both treatment and nontreatment related life decisions. (c) 2010 American Cancer Society.

Development of a Job-Exposure Matrix (AsbJEM) to Estimate Occupational Exposure to Asbestos in Australia.

PubMed

van Oyen, Svein C; Peters, Susan; Alfonso, Helman; Fritschi, Lin; de Klerk, Nicholas H; Reid, Alison; Franklin, Peter; Gordon, Len; Benke, Geza; Musk, Arthur W

2015-07-01

Occupational exposure data on asbestos are limited and poorly integrated in Australia so that estimates of disease risk and attribution of disease causation are usually calculated from data that are not specific for local conditions. To develop a job-exposure matrix (AsbJEM) to estimate occupational asbestos exposure levels in Australia, making optimal use of the available exposure data. A dossier of all available exposure data in Australia and information on industry practices and controls was provided to an expert panel consisting of three local industrial hygienists with thorough knowledge of local and international work practices. The expert panel estimated asbestos exposures for combinations of occupation, industry, and time period. Intensity and frequency grades were estimated to enable the calculation of annual exposure levels for each occupation-industry combination for each time period. Two indicators of asbestos exposure intensity (mode and peak) were used to account for different patterns of exposure between occupations. Additionally, the probable type of asbestos fibre was determined for each situation. Asbestos exposures were estimated for 537 combinations of 224 occupations and 60 industries for four time periods (1943-1966; 1967-1986; 1987-2003; ≥2004). Workers in the asbestos manufacturing, shipyard, and insulation industries were estimated to have had the highest average exposures. Up until 1986, 46 occupation-industry combinations were estimated to have had exposures exceeding the current Australian exposure standard of 0.1 f ml(-1). Over 90% of exposed occupations were considered to have had exposure to a mixture of asbestos varieties including crocidolite. The AsbJEM provides empirically based quantified estimates of asbestos exposure levels for Australian jobs since 1943. This exposure assessment application will contribute to improved understanding and prediction of asbestos-related diseases and attribution of disease causation. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Occupational Hygiene Society.

Direct volume estimation without segmentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhen, X.; Wang, Z.; Islam, A.; Bhaduri, M.; Chan, I.; Li, S.

2015-03-01

Volume estimation plays an important role in clinical diagnosis. For example, cardiac ventricular volumes including left ventricle (LV) and right ventricle (RV) are important clinical indicators of cardiac functions. Accurate and automatic estimation of the ventricular volumes is essential to the assessment of cardiac functions and diagnosis of heart diseases. Conventional methods are dependent on an intermediate segmentation step which is obtained either manually or automatically. However, manual segmentation is extremely time-consuming, subjective and highly non-reproducible; automatic segmentation is still challenging, computationally expensive, and completely unsolved for the RV. Towards accurate and efficient direct volume estimation, our group has been researching on learning based methods without segmentation by leveraging state-of-the-art machine learning techniques. Our direct estimation methods remove the accessional step of segmentation and can naturally deal with various volume estimation tasks. Moreover, they are extremely flexible to be used for volume estimation of either joint bi-ventricles (LV and RV) or individual LV/RV. We comparatively study the performance of direct methods on cardiac ventricular volume estimation by comparing with segmentation based methods. Experimental results show that direct estimation methods provide more accurate estimation of cardiac ventricular volumes than segmentation based methods. This indicates that direct estimation methods not only provide a convenient and mature clinical tool for cardiac volume estimation but also enables diagnosis of cardiac diseases to be conducted in a more efficient and reliable way.

Infectious disease risks among refugees from North Korea.

PubMed

Nishiura, Hiroshi; Lee, Hyojung; Yuan, Baoyin; Endo, Akira; Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R; Chowell, Gerardo

2018-01-01

The characteristics of disease in North Korea, including severe malnutrition and infectious disease risks, have not been openly and widely analyzed. This study was performed to estimate the risks of infectious diseases among refugees from North Korea. A literature review of clinical studies among North Korean defectors was conducted to statistically estimate the risks of infectious diseases among North Korean subjects. A total of six groups of data from five publications covering the years 2004 to 2014 were identified. Tuberculosis and viral hepatitis appeared to be the two most common infectious diseases, especially among adult refugees. When comparing the risks of infectious diseases between North Korean and Syrian refugees, it is critical to remember that Plasmodium vivax malaria has been endemic in North Korea, while cutaneous leishmaniasis has frequently been seen among Syrian migrants. Valuable datasets from health surveys of defectors were reviewed. In addition to tuberculosis and viral hepatitis, which were found to be the two most common infectious diseases, a special characteristic of North Korean defectors was Plasmodium vivax malaria. This needs to be added to the list of differential diagnoses for pyretic patients. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Burden of Skin and Subcutaneous Diseases in Iran and Neighboring Countries: Results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.

PubMed

Karimkhani, Chante; Dellavalle, Robert P; Karimi, Seyed M; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa; Pourmalek, Farshad; Kiadaliri, Aliasghar A; Sahraian, Mohammad Ali; Roshandel, Gholamreza; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed Mohammad; Qorbani, Mostafa; Radfar, Amir; Farvid, Maryam S; Asayesh, Hamid; Sepanlou, Sadaf G; Djalalinia, Shirin; Kasaeian, Amir; Khubchandani, Jagdish; Malekzadeh, Reza; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Krohn, Kristopher J; Mokdad, Ali H; Vos, Theo; Naghavi, Mohsen

2017-07-01

Iran and its neighboring countries represent four world regions with unique cultures and geography. Skin diseases span a wide diversity of etiologies including infectious, inflammatory, autoimmune, vascular, neurogenic, and oncologic. The Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2015 measures the burden from skin diseases in 195 countries. Epidemiologic data were collected from literature review, survey data, and hospital inpatient/outpatient claims data. These raw data entered modeling using a Bayesian meta-regression tool, DisMod MR-2.1, which yielded prevalence estimates by age/sex/location/year. Prevalence estimates were combined with disability weights to yield years lived with disability (YLDs). YLDs are combined with years of life lost (YLLs), from mortality estimates, to yield disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). DALYs were obtained for 16 skin conditions and both sexes in Iran and 15 surrounding countries. The sociodemographic index (SDI) for each country was also correlated with skin disease DALY rate using the Pearson coefficient (r) with two-tailed P-value. There was no significant correlation between individual skin diseases and SDI. Acne and dermatitis caused the greatest burden and BCC the lowest burden of skin diseases in Iran and the other 15 countries. SCC and BCC were responsible for the largest discrepancy by sex, with higher burden in males compared to females. Skin diseases, particularly dermatitis and acne, cause considerable burden in Iran and surrounding regions. Objective and transparent epidemiologic data such as GBD has the potential to inform and impact many facets of healthcare, research prioritization, public policy, and international partnerships.

2016 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures.

PubMed

2016-04-01

This report describes the public health impact of Alzheimer's disease, including incidence and prevalence, mortality rates, costs of care, and the overall impact on caregivers and society. It also examines in detail the financial impact of Alzheimer's on families, including annual costs to families and the difficult decisions families must often make to pay those costs. An estimated 5.4 million Americans have Alzheimer's disease. By mid-century, the number of people living with Alzheimer's disease in the United States is projected to grow to 13.8 million, fueled in large part by the aging baby boom generation. Today, someone in the country develops Alzheimer's disease every 66 seconds. By 2050, one new case of Alzheimer's is expected to develop every 33 seconds, resulting in nearly 1 million new cases per year. In 2013, official death certificates recorded 84,767 deaths from Alzheimer's disease, making it the sixth leading cause of death in the United States and the fifth leading cause of death in Americans age ≥ 65 years. Between 2000 and 2013, deaths resulting from stroke, heart disease, and prostate cancer decreased 23%, 14%, and 11%, respectively, whereas deaths from Alzheimer's disease increased 71%. The actual number of deaths to which Alzheimer's disease contributes is likely much larger than the number of deaths from Alzheimer's disease recorded on death certificates. In 2016, an estimated 700,000 Americans age ≥ 65 years will die with Alzheimer's disease, and many of them will die because of the complications caused by Alzheimer's disease. In 2015, more than 15 million family members and other unpaid caregivers provided an estimated 18.1 billion hours of care to people with Alzheimer's and other dementias, a contribution valued at more than $221 billion. Average per-person Medicare payments for services to beneficiaries age ≥ 65 years with Alzheimer's disease and other dementias are more than two and a half times as great as payments for all beneficiaries without these conditions, and Medicaid payments are 19 times as great. Total payments in 2016 for health care, long-term care and hospice services for people age ≥ 65 years with dementia are estimated to be $236 billion. The costs of Alzheimer's care may place a substantial financial burden on families, who often have to take money out of their retirement savings, cut back on buying food, and reduce their own trips to the doctor. In addition, many family members incorrectly believe that Medicare pays for nursing home care and other types of long-term care. Such findings highlight the need for solutions to prevent dementia-related costs from jeopardizing the health and financial security of the families of people with Alzheimer's and other dementias.

Emergency general surgery: definition and estimated burden of disease.

PubMed

Shafi, Shahid; Aboutanos, Michel B; Agarwal, Suresh; Brown, Carlos V R; Crandall, Marie; Feliciano, David V; Guillamondegui, Oscar; Haider, Adil; Inaba, Kenji; Osler, Turner M; Ross, Steven; Rozycki, Grace S; Tominaga, Gail T

2013-04-01

Acute care surgery encompasses trauma, surgical critical care, and emergency general surgery (EGS). While the first two components are well defined, the scope of EGS practice remains unclear. This article describes the work of the American Association for the Surgery of Trauma to define EGS. A total of 621 unique International Classification of Diseases-9th Rev. (ICD-9) diagnosis codes were identified using billing data (calendar year 2011) from seven large academic medical centers that practice EGS. A modified Delphi methodology was used by the American Association for the Surgery of Trauma Committee on Severity Assessment and Patient Outcomes to review these codes and achieve consensus on the definition of primary EGS diagnosis codes. National Inpatient Sample data from 2009 were used to develop a national estimate of EGS burden of disease. Several unique ICD-9 codes were identified as primary EGS diagnoses. These encompass a wide spectrum of general surgery practice, including upper and lower gastrointestinal tract, hepatobiliary and pancreatic disease, soft tissue infections, and hernias. National Inpatient Sample estimates revealed over 4 million inpatient encounters nationally in 2009 for EGS diseases. This article provides the first list of ICD-9 diagnoses codes that define the scope of EGS based on current clinical practices. These findings have wide implications for EGS workforce training, access to care, and research.

Diabetes disease management results in Hispanic Medicaid patients.

PubMed

Berg, Gregory D; Wadhwa, Sandeep

2009-05-01

To investigate outcomes of a telephonic nursing disease management program for Medicaid patients with diabetes residing in Puerto Rico. A 12-month, matched-cohort study. Four hundred and ninety (490) intervention group members matched to 490 controls. Disease management diabetes program. For those in the intervention group, the disease management program customized a self-management intervention plan. Medical service utilization, including hospitalizations, emergency department visits, physician evaluation and management visits, selected clinical indicators, and financial impact. The intervention group showed significant effects compared with the control group, including a 48% reduction in inpatient bed days, and a 23% increase in ACE inhibitor use, resulting in a return on investment estimate of 3.8:1. The study demonstrates that a nursing disease management program for diabetes can significantly improve hospitalizations, drug compliance, and vaccinations in a Hispanic Medicaid population.

Stochastic modelling of direct costs of pancreas disease (PD) in Norwegian farmed Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.).

PubMed

Aunsmo, Arnfinn; Valle, Paul Steinar; Sandberg, Marianne; Midtlyng, Paul Johan; Bruheim, Torkjel

2010-02-01

An economic model for estimating the direct costs of disease in industrial aquaculture was developed to include the following areas: biological losses, extraordinary costs, costs of treatment, costs of prevention and insurance pay-out. Direct costs of a pancreas disease (PD) outbreak in Norwegian farmed Atlantic salmon were estimated in the model, using probability distributions for the biological losses and expenditures associated with the disease. The biological effects of PD on mortality, growth, feed conversion and carcass quality and their correlations, together with costs of prevention were established using elicited data from an expert panel, and combined with basal losses in a control model. Extraordinary costs and costs associated with treatment were collected through a questionnaire sent to staff managing disease outbreaks. Norwegian national statistics for 2007 were used for prices and production costs in the model. Direct costs associated with a PD-outbreak in a site stocked with 500,000 smolts (vs. a similar site without the disease) were estimated to NOK (Norwegian kroner) 14.4 million (5% and 95% percentile: 10.5 and 17.8) (NOK=euro0.12 or $0.17 for 2007). Production was reduced to 70% (5% and 95% percentile: 57% and 81%) saleable biomass, and at an increased production cost of NOK 6.0 per kg (5% and 95% percentile: 3.5 and 8.7). Copyright 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The effects of geography on survival in patients with oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma.

PubMed

Zhang, Han; Dziegielewski, Peter T; Jean Nguyen, T T; Jeffery, Caroline C; O'Connell, Daniel A; Harris, Jeffrey R; Seikaly, Hadi

2015-06-01

To assess the survival outcomes of oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma (OCSCC) by differing geographical location. Demographic, pathologic, treatment, and survival data was obtained from OCSCC patients from 1998-2010 in Alberta, Canada. 554 patients were included from 660 OCSCC patients. Overall, disease-specific, and disease-free survivals were estimated with Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses. Patients were grouped by geographic locations. Patients from urban locations had improved overall, disease-specific, and disease-free survival compared to rural locations (p<0.05). Two and five year estimates of overall survival were significantly higher in the urban cohort at 84% and 78%, versus rural with 48% and 44%, respectively (p<0.05). Disease-specific and disease-free survival rates were also superior in the urban group (p<0.05). Diagnosis to treatment time for all 3 geographical groups was not found to be statistically significant (p>0.05). This study shows that patients with OCSCC living in urban settings have improved survival compared to rural groups. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Accuracy of the visual estimation method as a predictor of food intake in Alzheimer's patients provided with different types of food.

PubMed

Amano, Nobuko; Nakamura, Tomiyo

2018-02-01

The visual estimation method is commonly used in hospitals and other care facilities to evaluate food intake through estimation of plate waste. In Japan, no previous studies have investigated the validity and reliability of this method under the routine conditions of a hospital setting. The present study aimed to evaluate the validity and reliability of the visual estimation method, in long-term inpatients with different levels of eating disability caused by Alzheimer's disease. The patients were provided different therapeutic diets presented in various food types. This study was performed between February and April 2013, and 82 patients with Alzheimer's disease were included. Plate waste was evaluated for the 3 main daily meals, for a total of 21 days, 7 consecutive days during each of the 3 months, originating a total of 4851 meals, from which 3984 were included. Plate waste was measured by the nurses through the visual estimation method, and by the hospital's registered dietitians through the actual measurement method. The actual measurement method was first validated to serve as a reference, and the level of agreement between both methods was then determined. The month, time of day, type of food provided, and patients' physical characteristics were considered for analysis. For the 3984 meals included in the analysis, the level of agreement between the measurement methods was 78.4%. Disagreement of measurements consisted of 3.8% of underestimation and 17.8% of overestimation. Cronbach's α (0.60, P < 0.001) indicated that the reliability of the visual estimation method was within the acceptable range. The visual estimation method was found to be a valid and reliable method for estimating food intake in patients with different levels of eating impairment. The successful implementation and use of the method depends upon adequate training and motivation of the nurses and care staff involved. Copyright © 2017 European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010.

PubMed

Lim, Stephen S; Vos, Theo; Flaxman, Abraham D; Danaei, Goodarz; Shibuya, Kenji; Adair-Rohani, Heather; Amann, Markus; Anderson, H Ross; Andrews, Kathryn G; Aryee, Martin; Atkinson, Charles; Bacchus, Loraine J; Bahalim, Adil N; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Balmes, John; Barker-Collo, Suzanne; Baxter, Amanda; Bell, Michelle L; Blore, Jed D; Blyth, Fiona; Bonner, Carissa; Borges, Guilherme; Bourne, Rupert; Boussinesq, Michel; Brauer, Michael; Brooks, Peter; Bruce, Nigel G; Brunekreef, Bert; Bryan-Hancock, Claire; Bucello, Chiara; Buchbinder, Rachelle; Bull, Fiona; Burnett, Richard T; Byers, Tim E; Calabria, Bianca; Carapetis, Jonathan; Carnahan, Emily; Chafe, Zoe; Charlson, Fiona; Chen, Honglei; Chen, Jian Shen; Cheng, Andrew Tai-Ann; Child, Jennifer Christine; Cohen, Aaron; Colson, K Ellicott; Cowie, Benjamin C; Darby, Sarah; Darling, Susan; Davis, Adrian; Degenhardt, Louisa; Dentener, Frank; Des Jarlais, Don C; Devries, Karen; Dherani, Mukesh; Ding, Eric L; Dorsey, E Ray; Driscoll, Tim; Edmond, Karen; Ali, Suad Eltahir; Engell, Rebecca E; Erwin, Patricia J; Fahimi, Saman; Falder, Gail; Farzadfar, Farshad; Ferrari, Alize; Finucane, Mariel M; Flaxman, Seth; Fowkes, Francis Gerry R; Freedman, Greg; Freeman, Michael K; Gakidou, Emmanuela; Ghosh, Santu; Giovannucci, Edward; Gmel, Gerhard; Graham, Kathryn; Grainger, Rebecca; Grant, Bridget; Gunnell, David; Gutierrez, Hialy R; Hall, Wayne; Hoek, Hans W; Hogan, Anthony; Hosgood, H Dean; Hoy, Damian; Hu, Howard; Hubbell, Bryan J; Hutchings, Sally J; Ibeanusi, Sydney E; Jacklyn, Gemma L; Jasrasaria, Rashmi; Jonas, Jost B; Kan, Haidong; Kanis, John A; Kassebaum, Nicholas; Kawakami, Norito; Khang, Young-Ho; Khatibzadeh, Shahab; Khoo, Jon-Paul; Kok, Cindy; Laden, Francine; Lalloo, Ratilal; Lan, Qing; Lathlean, Tim; Leasher, Janet L; Leigh, James; Li, Yang; Lin, John Kent; Lipshultz, Steven E; London, Stephanie; Lozano, Rafael; Lu, Yuan; Mak, Joelle; Malekzadeh, Reza; Mallinger, Leslie; Marcenes, Wagner; March, Lyn; Marks, Robin; Martin, Randall; McGale, Paul; McGrath, John; Mehta, Sumi; Mensah, George A; Merriman, Tony R; Micha, Renata; Michaud, Catherine; Mishra, Vinod; Mohd Hanafiah, Khayriyyah; Mokdad, Ali A; Morawska, Lidia; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Murphy, Tasha; Naghavi, Mohsen; Neal, Bruce; Nelson, Paul K; Nolla, Joan Miquel; Norman, Rosana; Olives, Casey; Omer, Saad B; Orchard, Jessica; Osborne, Richard; Ostro, Bart; Page, Andrew; Pandey, Kiran D; Parry, Charles D H; Passmore, Erin; Patra, Jayadeep; Pearce, Neil; Pelizzari, Pamela M; Petzold, Max; Phillips, Michael R; Pope, Dan; Pope, C Arden; Powles, John; Rao, Mayuree; Razavi, Homie; Rehfuess, Eva A; Rehm, Jürgen T; Ritz, Beate; Rivara, Frederick P; Roberts, Thomas; Robinson, Carolyn; Rodriguez-Portales, Jose A; Romieu, Isabelle; Room, Robin; Rosenfeld, Lisa C; Roy, Ananya; Rushton, Lesley; Salomon, Joshua A; Sampson, Uchechukwu; Sanchez-Riera, Lidia; Sanman, Ella; Sapkota, Amir; Seedat, Soraya; Shi, Peilin; Shield, Kevin; Shivakoti, Rupak; Singh, Gitanjali M; Sleet, David A; Smith, Emma; Smith, Kirk R; Stapelberg, Nicolas J C; Steenland, Kyle; Stöckl, Heidi; Stovner, Lars Jacob; Straif, Kurt; Straney, Lahn; Thurston, George D; Tran, Jimmy H; Van Dingenen, Rita; van Donkelaar, Aaron; Veerman, J Lennert; Vijayakumar, Lakshmi; Weintraub, Robert; Weissman, Myrna M; White, Richard A; Whiteford, Harvey; Wiersma, Steven T; Wilkinson, James D; Williams, Hywel C; Williams, Warwick; Wilson, Nicholas; Woolf, Anthony D; Yip, Paul; Zielinski, Jan M; Lopez, Alan D; Murray, Christopher J L; Ezzati, Majid; AlMazroa, Mohammad A; Memish, Ziad A

2012-12-15

Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4-1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania. Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

PubMed Central

Lim, Stephen S; Vos, Theo; Flaxman, Abraham D; Danaei, Goodarz; Shibuya, Kenji; Adair-Rohani, Heather; Amann, Markus; Anderson, H Ross; Andrews, Kathryn G; Aryee, Martin; Atkinson, Charles; Bacchus, Loraine J; Bahalim, Adil N; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Balmes, John; Barker-Collo, Suzanne; Baxter, Amanda; Bell, Michelle L; Blore, Jed D; Blyth, Fiona; Bonner, Carissa; Borges, Guilherme; Bourne, Rupert; Boussinesq, Michel; Brauer, Michael; Brooks, Peter; Bruce, Nigel G; Brunekreef, Bert; Bryan-Hancock, Claire; Bucello, Chiara; Buchbinder, Rachelle; Bull, Fiona; Burnett, Richard T; Byers, Tim E; Calabria, Bianca; Carapetis, Jonathan; Carnahan, Emily; Chafe, Zoe; Charlson, Fiona; Chen, Honglei; Chen, Jian Shen; Cheng, Andrew Tai-Ann; Child, Jennifer Christine; Cohen, Aaron; Colson, K Ellicott; Cowie, Benjamin C; Darby, Sarah; Darling, Susan; Davis, Adrian; Degenhardt, Louisa; Dentener, Frank; Des Jarlais, Don C; Devries, Karen; Dherani, Mukesh; Ding, Eric L; Dorsey, E Ray; Driscoll, Tim; Edmond, Karen; Ali, Suad Eltahir; Engell, Rebecca E; Erwin, Patricia J; Fahimi, Saman; Falder, Gail; Farzadfar, Farshad; Ferrari, Alize; Finucane, Mariel M; Flaxman, Seth; Fowkes, Francis Gerry R; Freedman, Greg; Freeman, Michael K; Gakidou, Emmanuela; Ghosh, Santu; Giovannucci, Edward; Gmel, Gerhard; Graham, Kathryn; Grainger, Rebecca; Grant, Bridget; Gunnell, David; Gutierrez, Hialy R; Hall, Wayne; Hoek, Hans W; Hogan, Anthony; Hosgood, H Dean; Hoy, Damian; Hu, Howard; Hubbell, Bryan J; Hutchings, Sally J; Ibeanusi, Sydney E; Jacklyn, Gemma L; Jasrasaria, Rashmi; Jonas, Jost B; Kan, Haidong; Kanis, John A; Kassebaum, Nicholas; Kawakami, Norito; Khang, Young-Ho; Khatibzadeh, Shahab; Khoo, Jon-Paul; Kok, Cindy; Laden, Francine; Lalloo, Ratilal; Lan, Qing; Lathlean, Tim; Leasher, Janet L; Leigh, James; Li, Yang; Lin, John Kent; Lipshultz, Steven E; London, Stephanie; Lozano, Rafael; Lu, Yuan; Mak, Joelle; Malekzadeh, Reza; Mallinger, Leslie; Marcenes, Wagner; March, Lyn; Marks, Robin; Martin, Randall; McGale, Paul; McGrath, John; Mehta, Sumi; Mensah, George A; Merriman, Tony R; Micha, Renata; Michaud, Catherine; Mishra, Vinod; Hanafiah, Khayriyyah Mohd; Mokdad, Ali A; Morawska, Lidia; Mozaff arian, Dariush; Murphy, Tasha; Naghavi, Mohsen; Neal, Bruce; Nelson, Paul K; Nolla, Joan Miquel; Norman, Rosana; Olives, Casey; Omer, Saad B; Orchard, Jessica; Osborne, Richard; Ostro, Bart; Page, Andrew; Pandey, Kiran D; Parry, Charles D H; Passmore, Erin; Patra, Jayadeep; Pearce, Neil; Pelizzari, Pamela M; Petzold, Max; Phillips, Michael R; Pope, Dan; Pope III, C Arden; Powles, John; Rao, Mayuree; Razavi, Homie; Rehfuess, Eva A; Rehm, Jürgen T; Ritz, Beate; Rivara, Frederick P; Roberts, Thomas; Robinson, Carolyn; Rodriguez-Portales, Jose A; Romieu, Isabelle; Room, Robin; Rosenfeld, Lisa C; Roy, Ananya; Rushton, Lesley; Salomon, Joshua A; Sampson, Uchechukwu; Sanchez-Riera, Lidia; Sanman, Ella; Sapkota, Amir; Seedat, Soraya; Shi, Peilin; Shield, Kevin; Shivakoti, Rupak; Singh, Gitanjali M; Sleet, David A; Smith, Emma; Smith, Kirk R; Stapelberg, Nicolas J C; Steenland, Kyle; Stöckl, Heidi; Stovner, Lars Jacob; Straif, Kurt; Straney, Lahn; Thurston, George D; Tran, Jimmy H; Van Dingenen, Rita; van Donkelaar, Aaron; Veerman, J Lennert; Vijayakumar, Lakshmi; Weintraub, Robert; Weissman, Myrna M; White, Richard A; Whiteford, Harvey; Wiersma, Steven T; Wilkinson, James D; Williams, Hywel C; Williams, Warwick; Wilson, Nicholas; Woolf, Anthony D; Yip, Paul; Zielinski, Jan M; Lopez, Alan D; Murray, Christopher J L; Ezzati, Majid

2014-01-01

Summary Background Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. Methods We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. Findings In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2–7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5–7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0–5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8–9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6–8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4–6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2–10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water we and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4–1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania. Interpretation Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. PMID:23245609

["That flesh, pink and perishable": analysis of disease-free survival analysis in breast cancer in Gipuzkoa (Spain) in the presence of competing risks].

PubMed

Martínez-Camblor, Pablo; Larrañaga, Nerea; Sarasqueta, Cristina; Mitxelena, María José; Basterretxea, Mikel

2009-01-01

To analyze time of disease-free survival and relative survival in women diagnosed with breast cancer in the province of Gipuzkoa within the context of competing risks by assessing differences between the direct use of the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the multiple decrement method on the one hand, and relative survival on the other. All registered breast cancer cases in Gipuzkoa in 1995 and 1996 with stages other than stage IV were included. An 8-year follow-up for recurrence and a 10-year follow-up for survival were performed. Time of disease-free survival was studied by the multiple decrement model. Observed survival and survival corrected by the expected mortality in the population (relative survival) were also studied. Estimation of the probability of recurrence at 8 years with the multiple decrement method was 8.8% lower than that obtained with the Kaplan-Meier method. The difference between the observed and relative survival rates at 10 years was 10.8%. Both results show how, in this case, the Kaplan-Meier estimator overestimates both the probability of recurrence and that of mortality from the disease. Two issues are often overlooked when performing survival analyses: firstly, because of the lack of independence between survival time and censoring time, the results obtained by the Kaplan-Meier estimator are uninterpretable; secondly, it is an incontrovertible fact that one way or another, everyone causes failures. In this approach, survival analyses must take into account the probability of failure in the general population of reference. The results obtained in this study show that superficial use of the Kaplan Meier estimator overestimates both the probability of recurrence and that of mortality caused by the disease.

Narrative Review: Sexually Transmitted Diseases and Homeless Youth-What Do We Know About Sexually Transmitted Disease Prevalence and Risk?

PubMed

Caccamo, Alexandra; Kachur, Rachel; Williams, Samantha P

2017-08-01

Homelessness affects an estimated 1.6 million US youth annually. Compared with housed youth, homeless youth are more likely to engage in high-risk behaviors, including inconsistent condom use, multiple sex partners, survival sex, and alcohol/drug use, putting them at increased sexually transmitted disease (STD) risk. However, there is no national estimate of STD prevalence among this population. We identified 10 peer-reviewed articles (9 unique studies) reporting STD prevalence among homeless US youth (2000-2015). Descriptive and qualitative analyses identified STD prevalence ranges and risk factors among youth. Eight studies reported specific STD prevalence estimates, mainly chlamydia, gonorrhea, and syphilis. Overall STD prevalence among homeless youth ranged from 6% to 32%. STD rates for girls varied from 16.7% to 46%, and from 9% to 13.1% in boys. Most studies were conducted in the Western United States, with no studies from the Southeast or Northeast. Youths who experienced longer periods of homelessness were more likely to engage in high-risk sexual behaviors. Girls had lower rates of condom use and higher rates of STDs; boys were more likely to engage in anal and anonymous sex. Additionally, peer social networks contributed to protective effects on individual sexual risk behavior. Sexually transmitted disease prevalence estimates among homeless youth fluctuated greatly by study. Sexually transmitted disease risk behaviors are associated with unmet survival needs, length of homelessness, and influence of social networks. To promote sexual health and reduce STD rates, we need better estimates of STD prevalence, more geographic diversity of studies, and interventions addressing the behavioral associations identified in our review.

Narrative Review: Sexually Transmitted Diseases and Homeless Youth—What Do We Know About Sexually Transmitted Disease Prevalence and Risk?

PubMed Central

Caccamo, Alexandra; Kachur, Rachel; Williams, Samantha P.

2018-01-01

Background Homelessness affects an estimated 1.6 million US youth annually. Compared with housed youth, homeless youth are more likely to engage in high-risk behaviors, including inconsistent condom use, multiple sex partners, survival sex, and alcohol/drug use, putting them at increased sexually transmitted disease (STD) risk. However, there is no national estimate of STD prevalence among this population. Methods We identified 10 peer-reviewed articles (9 unique studies) reporting STD prevalence among homeless US youth (2000–2015). Descriptive and qualitative analyses identified STD prevalence ranges and risk factors among youth. Results Eight studies reported specific STD prevalence estimates, mainly chlamydia, gonorrhea, and syphilis. Overall STD prevalence among homeless youth ranged from 6% to 32%. STD rates for girls varied from 16.7% to 46%, and from 9% to 13.1% in boys. Most studies were conducted in the Western United States, with no studies from the Southeast or Northeast. Youths who experienced longer periods of homelessness were more likely to engage in high-risk sexual behaviors. Girls had lower rates of condom use and higher rates of STDs; boys were more likely to engage in anal and anonymous sex. Additionally, peer social networks contributed to protective effects on individual sexual risk behavior. Conclusions Sexually transmitted disease prevalence estimates among homeless youth fluctuated greatly by study. Sexually transmitted disease risk behaviors are associated with unmet survival needs, length of homelessness, and influence of social networks. To promote sexual health and reduce STD rates, we need better estimates of STD prevalence, more geographic diversity of studies, and interventions addressing the behavioral associations identified in our review. PMID:28703725

Indeterminate HIV-1 Western Blots: Etiology, Natural History, and Psychological Reactions

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-09-16

cases and for a subset of the controls. The screen for other infectious diseases included serum VDRL, 7 antibody to herpes simplex types 1 and 2 by...ME.1O Skin diseases 0-no: l-seborrhea; 2-recurrent staph: 3-psoriasis: 4-vitil igo 5-other. . .. . .. ... 6-multiple ME. iP Mononucleosis 0-no: 1...correspondence: Dr. Connie Celum. Division of Infectious Diseases. Harborview Medical Center ZA-09, 325 9th Ave.. Seattle, WA clearer estimation of the risk of

Population based screening for chronic kidney disease: cost effectiveness study.

PubMed

Manns, Braden; Hemmelgarn, Brenda; Tonelli, Marcello; Au, Flora; Chiasson, T Carter; Dong, James; Klarenbach, Scott

2010-11-08

To determine the cost effectiveness of one-off population based screening for chronic kidney disease based on estimated glomerular filtration rate. Cost utility analysis of screening with estimated glomerular filtration rate alone compared with no screening (with allowance for incidental finding of cases of chronic kidney disease). Analyses were stratified by age, diabetes, and the presence or absence of proteinuria. Scenario and sensitivity analyses, including probabilistic sensitivity analysis, were performed. Costs were estimated in all adults and in subgroups defined by age, diabetes, and hypertension. Publicly funded Canadian healthcare system. Large population based laboratory cohort used to estimate mortality rates and incidence of end stage renal disease for patients with chronic kidney disease over a five year follow-up period. Patients had not previously undergone assessment of glomerular filtration rate. Lifetime costs, end stage renal disease, quality adjusted life years (QALYs) gained, and incremental cost per QALY gained. Compared with no screening, population based screening for chronic kidney disease was associated with an incremental cost of $C463 (Canadian dollars in 2009; equivalent to about £275, €308, US $382) and a gain of 0.0044 QALYs per patient overall, representing a cost per QALY gained of $C104 900. In a cohort of 100 000 people, screening for chronic kidney disease would be expected to reduce the number of people who develop end stage renal disease over their lifetime from 675 to 657. In subgroups of people with and without diabetes, the cost per QALY gained was $C22 600 and $C572 000, respectively. In a cohort of 100 000 people with diabetes, screening would be expected to reduce the number of people who develop end stage renal disease over their lifetime from 1796 to 1741. In people without diabetes with and without hypertension, the cost per QALY gained was $C334 000 and $C1 411 100, respectively. Population based screening for chronic kidney disease with assessment of estimated glomerular filtration rate is not cost effective overall or in subgroups of people with hypertension or older people. Targeted screening of people with diabetes is associated with a cost per QALY that is similar to that accepted in other interventions funded by public healthcare systems.

Periodontal Disease, Tooth Loss, and Cancer Risk

PubMed Central

Michaud, Dominique S.; Fu, Zhuxuan; Shi, Jian; Chung, Mei

2017-01-01

Abstract Periodontal disease, which includes gingivitis and periodontitis, is highly prevalent in adults and disease severity increases with age. The relationship between periodontal disease and oral cancer has been examined for several decades, but there is increasing interest in the link between periodontal disease and overall cancer risk, with systemic inflammation serving as the main focus for biological plausibility. Numerous case-control studies have addressed the role of oral health in head and neck cancer, and several cohort studies have examined associations with other types of cancers over the past decade. For this review, we included studies that were identified from either 11 published reviews on this topic or an updated literature search on PubMed (between 2011 and July 2016). A total of 50 studies from 46 publications were included in this review. Meta-analyses were conducted on cohort and case-control studies separately when at least 4 studies could be included to determine summary estimates of the risk of cancer in relation to 1) periodontal disease or 2) tooth number (a surrogate marker of periodontal disease) with adjustment for smoking. Existing data provide support for a positive association between periodontal disease and risk of oral, lung, and pancreatic cancers; however, additional prospective studies are needed to better inform on the strength of these associations and to determine whether other cancers are associated with periodontal disease. Future studies should include sufficiently large sample sizes, improved measurements for periodontal disease, and thorough adjustment for smoking and other risk factors. PMID:28449041

Active and passive surveillance of yellow fever vaccine 17D or 17DD-associated serious adverse events: systematic review.

PubMed

Thomas, Roger E; Lorenzetti, Diane L; Spragins, Wendy; Jackson, Dave; Williamson, Tyler

2011-06-20

To identify the rate of serious adverse events attributable to yellow fever vaccination with 17D and 17DD strains reported in active and passive surveillance data. We conducted a systematic review of published literature on adverse events associated with yellow fever. We searched 9 electronic databases for peer reviewed and grey literature in all languages. There were no restrictions on date of publication. Reference lists of key studies were also reviewed to identify additional studies. We identified 66 relevant studies: 24 used active, 17 a combination of passive and active (15 of which were pharmacovigilance databases), and 25 passive surveillance. ACTIVE SURVEILLANCE: A total of 2,660,929 patients in general populations were followed for adverse events after vaccination, heavily weighted (97.7%) by one large Brazilian study. There were no observed cases of viscerotropic or neurotropic disease, one of anaphylaxis and 26 cases of urticaria (hypersensitivity). We also identified four studies of infants and children (n=2199), four studies of women (n=1334), and one study of 174 HIV+, and no serious adverse events were observed. PHARMACOVIGILANCE DATABASES: 10 of the 15 databases contributed data to this review, with 107,621,154 patients, heavily weighted (94%) by the Brazilian database. The estimates for Australia were low at 0/210,656 for "severe neurological disease" and 1/210,656 for YEL-AVD, and also low for Brazil with 9 hypersensitivity events, 0.23 anaphylactic shock events, 0.84 neurologic syndrome events and 0.19 viscerotropic events cases/million doses. The five analyses of partly overlapping periods for the US VAERS database provided an estimate of 6.6 YEL-AVD and YEL-AND cases per million, and estimates between 11.1 and 15.6 of overall "serious adverse events" per million. The estimates for the UK were higher at 34 "serious adverse events" and also for Switzerland with 14.6 "neurologic events" and 40 "serious events not neurological"/million doses. PASSIVE SURVEILLANCE: Six studies of campaigns in general populations included 94,500,528 individuals, very heavily weighted (99%) by the Brazilian data, and providing an estimate of 0.51 serious AEFIs/million doses. Five retrospective reviews of hospital or clinic records included 60,698 individuals, and no serious AEFIs were proven. The data are heavily weighted (96%) by the data from the Hospital for Tropical Diseases, London. Two studies included 35,723 children, four studies included 138 pregnant women, six studies included 191 HIV+ patients, and there was one review of patients who were HIV+, and no serious AEFIs were proven. The databases in each country used different definitions, protocols, surveillance mechanisms for the initial identification and reporting of cases, and strategies for the clinical and laboratory follow up of cases. The pharmacovigilance databases provide three sets of estimates: a low estimate from the Brazilian and Australian data, a medium estimate from the US VAERS data, and a higher estimate from the UK and Swiss data. The estimates from the active surveillance data are lower (and strongly influenced by the Brazilian data) and the estimates from the passive surveillance studies are also lower (strongly influenced by the London Hospital for Tropical Diseases data from the early 1950s). Sophisticated pathology, histopathology and tests such as PCR amplicon sequencing are needed to prove that serious adverse events were actually caused by the yellow fever vaccine, and the availability of such diagnostic capability is strongly biased towards recent reports from developed countries. Despite these variations in the estimation of serious harm, overall the 17D and 17DD yellow fever vaccine has proven to be a very safe vaccine and is highly effective against an illness with high potential mortality rates. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Program Cost of a Brief Video Intervention Shown in Sexually Transmitted Disease Clinic Waiting Rooms.

PubMed

Gift, Thomas L; OʼDonnell, Lydia N; Rietmeijer, Cornelis A; Malotte, Kevin C; Klausner, Jeffrey D; Margolis, Andrew D; Borkowf, Craig B; Kent, Charlotte K; Warner, Lee

2016-01-01

Patients in sexually transmitted disease (STD) clinic waiting rooms represent a potential audience for delivering health messages via video-based interventions. A controlled trial at 3 sites found that patients exposed to one intervention, Safe in the City, had a significantly lower incidence of STDs compared with patients in the control condition. An evaluation of the intervention's cost could help determine whether such interventions are programmatically viable. The cost of producing the Safe in the City intervention was estimated using study records, including logs, calendars, and contract invoices. Production costs were divided by the 1650 digital video kits initially fabricated to get an estimated cost per digital video. Clinic costs for showing the video in waiting rooms included staff time costs for equipment operation and hardware depreciation and were estimated for the 21-month study observation period retrospectively. The intervention cost an estimated $416,966 to develop, equaling $253 per digital video disk produced. Per-site costs to show the video intervention were estimated to be $2699 during the randomized trial. The cost of producing and implementing Safe in the City intervention suggests that similar interventions could potentially be produced and made available to end users at a price that would both cover production costs and be low enough that the end users could afford them.

Estimated Costs of Sporadic Gastrointestinal Illness Associated with Surface Water Recreation: A Combined Analysis of Data from NEEAR and CHEERS Studies

PubMed Central

DeFlorio-Barker, Stephanie; Wade, Timothy J.; Jones, Rachael M.; Friedman, Lee S.; Wing, Coady; Dorevitch, Samuel

2016-01-01

Background: The burden of illness can be described by addressing both incidence and illness severity attributable to water recreation. Monetized as cost, attributable disease burden estimates can be useful for environmental management decisions. Objectives: We characterize the disease burden attributable to water recreation using data from two cohort studies using a cost of illness (COI) approach and estimate the largest drivers of the disease burden of water recreation. Methods: Data from the NEEAR study, which evaluated swimming and wading in marine and freshwater beaches in six U.S. states, and CHEERS, which evaluated illness after incidental-contact recreation (boating, canoeing, fishing, kayaking, and rowing) on waterways in the Chicago area, were used to estimate the cost per case of gastrointestinal illness and costs attributable to water recreation. Data on health care and medication utilization and missed days of work or leisure were collected and combined with cost data to construct measures of COI. Results: Depending on different assumptions, the cost of gastrointestinal symptoms attributable to water recreation are estimated to be $1,220 for incidental-contact recreation (range $338–$1,681) and $1,676 for swimming/wading (range $425–2,743) per 1,000 recreators. Lost productivity is a major driver of the estimated COI, accounting for up to 90% of total costs. Conclusions: Our estimates suggest gastrointestinal illness attributed to surface water recreation at urban waterways, lakes, and coastal marine beaches is responsible for costs that should be accounted for when considering the monetary impact of efforts to improve water quality. The COI provides more information than the frequency of illness, as it takes into account disease incidence, health care utilization, and lost productivity. Use of monetized disease severity information should be included in future studies of water quality and health. Citation: DeFlorio-Barker S, Wade TJ, Jones RM, Friedman LS, Wing C, Dorevitch S. 2017. Estimated costs of sporadic gastrointestinal illness associated with surface water recreation: a combined analysis of data from NEEAR and CHEERS Studies. Environ Health Perspect 125:215–222; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP130 PMID:27459727

Estimated Costs of Sporadic Gastrointestinal Illness Associated with Surface Water Recreation: A Combined Analysis of Data from NEEAR and CHEERS Studies.

PubMed

DeFlorio-Barker, Stephanie; Wade, Timothy J; Jones, Rachael M; Friedman, Lee S; Wing, Coady; Dorevitch, Samuel

2017-02-01

The burden of illness can be described by addressing both incidence and illness severity attributable to water recreation. Monetized as cost, attributable disease burden estimates can be useful for environmental management decisions. We characterize the disease burden attributable to water recreation using data from two cohort studies using a cost of illness (COI) approach and estimate the largest drivers of the disease burden of water recreation. Data from the NEEAR study, which evaluated swimming and wading in marine and freshwater beaches in six U.S. states, and CHEERS, which evaluated illness after incidental-contact recreation (boating, canoeing, fishing, kayaking, and rowing) on waterways in the Chicago area, were used to estimate the cost per case of gastrointestinal illness and costs attributable to water recreation. Data on health care and medication utilization and missed days of work or leisure were collected and combined with cost data to construct measures of COI. Depending on different assumptions, the cost of gastrointestinal symptoms attributable to water recreation are estimated to be $1,220 for incidental-contact recreation (range $338-$1,681) and $1,676 for swimming/wading (range $425-2,743) per 1,000 recreators. Lost productivity is a major driver of the estimated COI, accounting for up to 90% of total costs. Our estimates suggest gastrointestinal illness attributed to surface water recreation at urban waterways, lakes, and coastal marine beaches is responsible for costs that should be accounted for when considering the monetary impact of efforts to improve water quality. The COI provides more information than the frequency of illness, as it takes into account disease incidence, health care utilization, and lost productivity. Use of monetized disease severity information should be included in future studies of water quality and health. Citation: DeFlorio-Barker S, Wade TJ, Jones RM, Friedman LS, Wing C, Dorevitch S. 2017. Estimated costs of sporadic gastrointestinal illness associated with surface water recreation: a combined analysis of data from NEEAR and CHEERS Studies. Environ Health Perspect 125:215-222; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP130.

Obtaining Reliable Estimates of Ambulatory Physical Activity in People with Parkinson's Disease.

PubMed

Paul, Serene S; Ellis, Terry D; Dibble, Leland E; Earhart, Gammon M; Ford, Matthew P; Foreman, K Bo; Cavanaugh, James T

2016-05-05

We determined the number of days required, and whether to include weekdays and/or weekends, to obtain reliable measures of ambulatory physical activity in people with Parkinson's disease (PD). Ninety-two persons with PD wore a step activity monitor for seven days. The number of days required to obtain a reliable estimate of daily activity was determined from the mean intraclass correlation (ICC2,1) for all possible combinations of 1-6 consecutive days of monitoring. Two days of monitoring were sufficient to obtain reliable daily activity estimates (ICC2,1 > 0.9). Amount (p = 0.03) but not intensity (p = 0.13) of ambulatory activity was greater on weekdays than weekends. Activity prescription based on amount rather than intensity may be more appropriate for people with PD.

Including information about comorbidity in estimates of disease burden: Results from the WHO World Mental Health Surveys

PubMed Central

Alonso, Jordi; Vilagut, Gemma; Chatterji, Somnath; Heeringa, Steven; Schoenbaum, Michael; Üstün, T. Bedirhan; Rojas-Farreras, Sonia; Angermeyer, Matthias; Bromet, Evelyn; Bruffaerts, Ronny; de Girolamo, Giovanni; Gureje, Oye; Haro, Josep Maria; Karam, Aimee N.; Kovess, Viviane; Levinson, Daphna; Liu, Zhaorui; Mora, Maria Elena Medina; Ormel, J.; Posada-Villa, Jose; Uda, Hidenori; Kessler, Ronald C.

2010-01-01

Background The methodology commonly used to estimate disease burden, featuring ratings of severity of individual conditions, has been criticized for ignoring comorbidity. A methodology that addresses this problem is proposed and illustrated here with data from the WHO World Mental Health Surveys. Although the analysis is based on self-reports about one’s own conditions in a community survey, the logic applies equally well to analysis of hypothetical vignettes describing comorbid condition profiles. Methods Face-to-face interviews in 13 countries (six developing, nine developed; n = 31,067; response rate = 69.6%) assessed 10 classes of chronic physical and 9 of mental conditions. A visual analog scale (VAS) was used to assess overall perceived health. Multiple regression analysis with interactions for comorbidity was used to estimate associations of conditions with VAS. Simulation was used to estimate condition-specific effects. Results The best-fitting model included condition main effects and interactions of types by numbers of conditions. Neurological conditions, insomnia, and major depression were rated most severe. Adjustment for comorbidity reduced condition-specific estimates with substantial between-condition variation (.24–.70 ratios of condition-specific estimates with and without adjustment for comorbidity). The societal-level burden rankings were quite different from the individual-level rankings, with the highest societal-level rankings associated with conditions having high prevalence rather than high individual-level severity. Conclusions Plausible estimates of disorder-specific effects on VAS can be obtained using methods that adjust for comorbidity. These adjustments substantially influence condition-specific ratings. PMID:20553636

Maternal autoimmune disease and birth defects in the National Birth Defects Prevention Study.

PubMed

Howley, Meredith M; Browne, Marilyn L; Van Zutphen, Alissa R; Richardson, Sandra D; Blossom, Sarah J; Broussard, Cheryl S; Carmichael, Suzan L; Druschel, Charlotte M

2016-11-01

Little is known about the association between maternal autoimmune disease or its treatment and the risk of birth defects. We examined these associations using data from the National Birth Defects Prevention Study, a multi-site, population-based, case-control study. Analyses included 25,116 case and 9897 unaffected control infants with estimated delivery dates between 1997 and 2009. Information on autoimmune disease, medication use, and other pregnancy exposures was collected by means of telephone interview. Adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated for birth defects with five or more exposed cases; crude ORs and exact 95% CIs were estimated for birth defects with three to four exposed cases. Autoimmune disease was reported by 373 mothers (279 case and 94 control mothers). The majority of birth defects evaluated were not associated with autoimmune disease; however, a statistically significant association between maternal autoimmune disease and encephalocele was observed (OR, 4.64; 95% CI, 1.95-11.04). Eighty-two mothers with autoimmune disease used an immune modifying/suppressing medication during pregnancy; this was associated with encephalocele (OR, 7.26; 95% CI, 1.37-24.61) and atrial septal defects (OR, 3.01; 95% CI, 1.16-7.80). Our findings suggest maternal autoimmune disease and treatment are not associated with the majority of birth defects, but may be associated with some defects, particularly encephalocele. Given the low prevalence of individual autoimmune diseases and the rare use of specific medications, we were unable to examine associations of specific autoimmune diseases and medications with birth defects. Other studies are needed to confirm these findings. Birth Defects Research (Part A) 106:950-962, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Maternal Autoimmune Disease and Birth Defects in the National Birth Defects Prevention Study

PubMed Central

Howley, Meredith M.; Browne, Marilyn L.; Van Zutphen, Alissa R.; Richardson, Sandra D.; Blossom, Sarah J.; Broussard, Cheryl S.; Carmichael, Suzan L.; Druschel, Charlotte M.

2017-01-01

Background Little is known about the association between maternal autoimmune disease or its treatment and the risk of birth defects. We examined these associations using data from the National Birth Defects Prevention Study, a multi-site, population-based, case–control study. Methods Analyses included 25,116 case and 9897 unaffected control infants with estimated delivery dates between 1997 and 2009. Information on autoimmune disease, medication use, and other pregnancy exposures was collected by means of telephone interview. Adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated for birth defects with five or more exposed cases; crude ORs and exact 95% CIs were estimated for birth defects with three to four exposed cases. Results Autoimmune disease was reported by 373 mothers (279 case and 94 control mothers). The majority of birth defects evaluated were not associated with autoimmune disease; however, a statistically significant association between maternal autoimmune disease and encephalocele was observed (OR, 4.64; 95% CI, 1.95–11.04). Eighty-two mothers with autoimmune disease used an immune modifying/suppressing medication during pregnancy; this was associated with encephalocele (OR, 7.26; 95% CI, 1.37–24.61) and atrial septal defects (OR, 3.01; 95% CI, 1.16–7.80). Conclusion Our findings suggest maternal autoimmune disease and treatment are not associated with the majority of birth defects, but may be associated with some defects, particularly encephalocele. Given the low prevalence of individual autoimmune diseases and the rare use of specific medications, we were unable to examine associations of specific autoimmune diseases and medications with birth defects. Other studies are needed to confirm these findings. PMID:27891777

The determinants of spread of Ebola virus disease - an evidence from the past outbreak experiences.

PubMed

Gałas, Aleksander

2014-01-01

The paper summarizes available evidence regarding the determinants of spread of Ebola virus disease, including health care and community related risk factors. It was observed that the level of uncertainty for the estimations is relatively high which may hinder to make some predictions for the future evolution of EVD outbreak. The natural history of EVD has shown that the disease may pose a problem to developed countries and may present a thread to individuals. Although observed modes of transmission mainly include direct contact and contaminated staff, high case fatality ratio and frequent contacts among individuals in developed countries are among determinants which may lead to the development of the EVD outbreak.

Comparing different policy scenarios to reduce the consumption of ultra-processed foods in UK: impact on cardiovascular disease mortality using a modelling approach.

PubMed

Moreira, Patricia V L; Baraldi, Larissa Galastri; Moubarac, Jean-Claude; Monteiro, Carlos Augusto; Newton, Alex; Capewell, Simon; O'Flaherty, Martin

2015-01-01

The global burden of non-communicable diseases partly reflects growing exposure to ultra-processed food products (UPPs). These heavily marketed UPPs are cheap and convenient for consumers and profitable for manufacturers, but contain high levels of salt, fat and sugars. This study aimed to explore the potential mortality reduction associated with future policies for substantially reducing ultra-processed food intake in the UK. We obtained data from the UK Living Cost and Food Survey and from the National Diet and Nutrition Survey. By the NOVA food typology, all food items were categorized into three groups according to the extent of food processing: Group 1 describes unprocessed/minimally processed foods. Group 2 comprises processed culinary ingredients. Group 3 includes all processed or ultra-processed products. Using UK nutrient conversion tables, we estimated the energy and nutrient profile of each food group. We then used the IMPACT Food Policy model to estimate reductions in cardiovascular mortality from improved nutrient intakes reflecting shifts from processed or ultra-processed to unprocessed/minimally processed foods. We then conducted probabilistic sensitivity analyses using Monte Carlo simulation. Approximately 175,000 cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths might be expected in 2030 if current mortality patterns persist. However, halving the intake of Group 3 (processed) foods could result in approximately 22,055 fewer CVD related deaths in 2030 (minimum estimate 10,705, maximum estimate 34,625). An ideal scenario in which salt and fat intakes are reduced to the low levels observed in Group 1 and 2 could lead to approximately 14,235 (minimum estimate 6,680, maximum estimate 22,525) fewer coronary deaths and approximately 7,820 (minimum estimate 4,025, maximum estimate 12,100) fewer stroke deaths, comprising almost 13% mortality reduction. This study shows a substantial potential for reducing the cardiovascular disease burden through a healthier food system. It highlights the crucial importance of implementing healthier UK food policies.

Estimating the Burden of Pneumococcal Pneumonia among Adults: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Diagnostic Techniques

PubMed Central

Said, Maria A.; Johnson, Hope L.; Nonyane, Bareng A. S.; Deloria-Knoll, Maria; O′Brien, Katherine L.

2013-01-01

Background Pneumococcal pneumonia causes significant morbidity and mortality among adults. Given limitations of diagnostic tests for non-bacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia, most studies report the incidence of bacteremic or invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), and thus, grossly underestimate the pneumococcal pneumonia burden. We aimed to develop a conceptual and quantitative strategy to estimate the non-bacteremic disease burden among adults with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) using systematic study methods and the availability of a urine antigen assay. Methods and Findings We performed a systematic literature review of studies providing information on the relative yield of various diagnostic assays (BinaxNOW® S. pneumoniae urine antigen test (UAT) with blood and/or sputum culture) in diagnosing pneumococcal pneumonia. We estimated the proportion of pneumococcal pneumonia that is bacteremic, the proportion of CAP attributable to pneumococcus, and the additional contribution of the Binax UAT beyond conventional diagnostic techniques, using random effects meta-analytic methods and bootstrapping. We included 35 studies in the analysis, predominantly from developed countries. The estimated proportion of pneumococcal pneumonia that is bacteremic was 24.8% (95% CI: 21.3%, 28.9%). The estimated proportion of CAP attributable to pneumococcus was 27.3% (95% CI: 23.9%, 31.1%). The Binax UAT diagnosed an additional 11.4% (95% CI: 9.6, 13.6%) of CAP beyond conventional techniques. We were limited by the fact that not all patients underwent all diagnostic tests and by the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic tests themselves. We address these resulting biases and provide a range of plausible values in order to estimate the burden of pneumococcal pneumonia among adults. Conclusions Estimating the adult burden of pneumococcal disease from bacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia data alone significantly underestimates the true burden of disease in adults. For every case of bacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia, we estimate that there are at least 3 additional cases of non-bacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia. PMID:23565216

History of Childhood Kidney Disease and Risk of Adult End-Stage Renal Disease.

PubMed

Calderon-Margalit, Ronit; Golan, Eliezer; Twig, Gilad; Leiba, Adi; Tzur, Dorit; Afek, Arnon; Skorecki, Karl; Vivante, Asaf

2018-02-01

The long-term risk associated with childhood kidney disease that had not progressed to chronic kidney disease in childhood is unclear. We aimed to estimate the risk of future end-stage renal disease (ESRD) among adolescents who had normal renal function and a history of childhood kidney disease. We conducted a nationwide, population-based, historical cohort study of 1,521,501 Israeli adolescents who were examined before compulsory military service in 1967 through 1997; data were linked to the Israeli ESRD registry. Kidney diseases in childhood included congenital anomalies of the kidney and urinary tract, pyelonephritis, and glomerular disease; all participants included in the primary analysis had normal renal function and no hypertension in adolescence. Cox proportional-hazards models were used to estimate the hazard ratio for ESRD associated with a history of childhood kidney disease. During 30 years of follow-up, ESRD developed in 2490 persons. A history of any childhood kidney disease was associated with a hazard ratio for ESRD of 4.19 (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.52 to 4.99). The associations between each diagnosis of kidney disease in childhood (congenital anomalies of the kidney and urinary tract, pyelonephritis, and glomerular disease) and the risk of ESRD in adulthood were similar in magnitude (multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios of 5.19 [95% CI, 3.41 to 7.90], 4.03 [95% CI, 3.16 to 5.14], and 3.85 [95% CI, 2.77 to 5.36], respectively). A history of kidney disease in childhood was associated with younger age at the onset of ESRD (hazard ratio for ESRD among adults <40 years of age, 10.40 [95% CI, 7.96 to 13.59]). A history of clinically evident kidney disease in childhood, even if renal function was apparently normal in adolescence, was associated with a significantly increased risk of ESRD, which suggests that kidney injury or structural abnormality in childhood has long-term consequences.

Improving spatio-temporal model estimation of satellite-derived PM2.5 concentrations: Implications for public health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barik, M. G.; Al-Hamdan, M. Z.; Crosson, W. L.; Yang, C. A.; Coffield, S. R.

2017-12-01

Satellite-derived environmental data, available in a range of spatio-temporal scales, are contributing to the growing use of health impact assessments of air pollution in the public health sector. Models developed using correlation of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) with ground measurements of fine particulate matter less than 2.5 microns (PM2.5) are widely applied to measure PM2.5 spatial and temporal variability. In the public health sector, associations of PM2.5 with respiratory and cardiovascular diseases are often investigated to quantify air quality impacts on these health concerns. In order to improve predictability of PM2.5 estimation using correlation models, we have included meteorological variables, higher-resolution AOD products and instantaneous PM2.5 observations into statistical estimation models. Our results showed that incorporation of high-resolution (1-km) Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC)-generated MODIS AOD, meteorological variables and instantaneous PM2.5 observations improved model performance in various parts of California (CA), USA, where single variable AOD-based models showed relatively weak performance. In this study, we further asked whether these improved models actually would be more successful for exploring associations of public health outcomes with estimated PM2.5. To answer this question, we geospatially investigated model-estimated PM2.5's relationship with respiratory and cardiovascular diseases such as asthma, high blood pressure, coronary heart disease, heart attack and stroke in CA using health data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)'s Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) and the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). PM2.5 estimation from these improved models have the potential to improve our understanding of associations between public health concerns and air quality.

Environmental pollutants and disease in American children: estimates of morbidity, mortality, and costs for lead poisoning, asthma, cancer, and developmental disabilities.

PubMed Central

Landrigan, Philip J; Schechter, Clyde B; Lipton, Jeffrey M; Fahs, Marianne C; Schwartz, Joel

2002-01-01

In this study, we aimed to estimate the contribution of environmental pollutants to the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and costs of pediatric disease in American children. We examined four categories of illness: lead poisoning, asthma, cancer, and neurobehavioral disorders. To estimate the proportion of each attributable to toxins in the environment, we used an environmentally attributable fraction (EAF) model. EAFs for lead poisoning, asthma, and cancer were developed by panels of experts through a Delphi process, whereas that for neurobehavioral disorders was based on data from the National Academy of Sciences. We define environmental pollutants as toxic chemicals of human origin in air, food, water, and communities. To develop estimates of costs, we relied on data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Health Care Financing Agency, and the Practice Management Information Corporation. EAFs were judged to be 100% for lead poisoning, 30% for asthma (range, 10-35%), 5% for cancer (range, 2-10%), and 10% for neurobehavioral disorders (range, 5-20%). Total annual costs are estimated to be $54.9 billion (range $48.8-64.8 billion): $43.4 billion for lead poisoning, $2.0 billion for asthma, $0.3 billion for childhood cancer, and $9.2 billion for neurobehavioral disorders. This sum amounts to 2.8 percent of total U.S. health care costs. This estimate is likely low because it considers only four categories of illness, incorporates conservative assumptions, ignores costs of pain and suffering, and does not include late complications for which etiologic associations are poorly quantified. The costs of pediatric environmental disease are high, in contrast with the limited resources directed to research, tracking, and prevention. PMID:12117650

Effects of alcohol taxes on alcohol-related disease mortality in New York State from 1969 to 2006.

PubMed

Delcher, Chris; Maldonado-Molina, Mildred M; Wagenaar, Alexander C

2012-07-01

The relationship of increased alcohol taxes to reductions in alcohol-related harm is well established. Few studies, however, have examined the effects of sudden decreases in alcohol tax rates or effects of narrow tax changes limited to specific beverage types. In the current study, we: (1) examine whether tax increases on spirits have similar effects in reducing alcohol-related disease mortality as increasing taxes on all types of alcoholic beverages simultaneously, and (2) evaluate effects of beer-specific tax decreases in New York State on mortality. We used a time-series, quasi-experimental research design, including non-alcohol deaths within New York State and other states' rates of alcohol-related disease mortality for comparison. The dataset included 456 monthly observations of mortality in New York State over a 38-year period (1969-2006). We used a random-effects approach and included several other important covariates. Alcohol-related disease mortality declined by 7.0% after a 1990 tax increase for spirits and beer. A spirits-only tax increase (in 1972) was not significantly associated with mortality but a data anomaly increased error in this effect estimate. Small tax decreases on beer between 1996 and 2006 had no measurable effect on mortality. Doubling the beer tax from $0.11 to $0.22 per gallon, a return to New York State's 1990 levels, would decrease deaths by an estimated 250 deaths per year. Excise tax increases on beer and spirits were associated with reductions in alcohol-related disease mortality. Modifying tax rates on a single beverage type does not appear to be as effective as doing so on multiple alcoholic beverages simultaneously. In New York, small decreases in beer taxes were not significantly associated with alcohol-related disease mortality. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of alcohol taxes on alcohol-related disease mortality in New York State from 1969 to 2006

PubMed Central

Delcher, Chris; Maldonado-Molina, Mildred M.; Wagenaar, Alexander C.

2013-01-01

Objective The relationship of increased alcohol taxes to reductions in alcohol-related harm is well established. Few studies, however, have examined the effects of sudden decreases in alcohol tax rates or effects of narrow tax changes limited to specific beverage types. In the current study, we: (1) examine whether tax increases on spirits have similar effects in reducing alcohol-related disease mortality as increasing taxes on all types of alcoholic beverages simultaneously, and (2) evaluate effects of beer-specific tax decreases in New York State on mortality. Method We used a time-series, quasi-experimental research design, including non-alcohol deaths within New York State and other states’ rates of alcohol-related disease mortality for comparison. The dataset included 456 monthly observations of mortality in New York State over a 38-year period (1969–2006). We used a random-effects approach and included several other important covariates. Results Alcohol-related disease mortality declined by 7.0% after a 1990 tax increase for spirits and beer. A spirits-only tax increase (in 1972) was not significantly associated with mortality but a data anomaly increased error in this effect estimate. Small tax decreases on beer between 1996 and 2006 had no measurable effect on mortality. Doubling the beer tax from $0.11 to $0.22 per gallon, a return to New York State’s 1990 levels, would decrease deaths by an estimated 250 deaths per year. Conclusions Excise tax increases on beer and spirits were associated with reductions in alcohol-related disease mortality. Modifying tax rates on a single beverage type does not appear to be as effective as doing so on multiple alcoholic beverages simultaneously. In New York, small decreases in beer taxes were not significantly associated with alcohol-related disease mortality. PMID:22436591

Disease quantification on PET/CT images without object delineation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tong, Yubing; Udupa, Jayaram K.; Odhner, Dewey; Wu, Caiyun; Fitzpatrick, Danielle; Winchell, Nicole; Schuster, Stephen J.; Torigian, Drew A.

2017-03-01

The derivation of quantitative information from images to make quantitative radiology (QR) clinically practical continues to face a major image analysis hurdle because of image segmentation challenges. This paper presents a novel approach to disease quantification (DQ) via positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) images that explores how to decouple DQ methods from explicit dependence on object segmentation through the use of only object recognition results to quantify disease burden. The concept of an object-dependent disease map is introduced to express disease severity without performing explicit delineation and partial volume correction of either objects or lesions. The parameters of the disease map are estimated from a set of training image data sets. The idea is illustrated on 20 lung lesions and 20 liver lesions derived from 18F-2-fluoro-2-deoxy-D-glucose (FDG)-PET/CT scans of patients with various types of cancers and also on 20 NEMA PET/CT phantom data sets. Our preliminary results show that, on phantom data sets, "disease burden" can be estimated to within 2% of known absolute true activity. Notwithstanding the difficulty in establishing true quantification on patient PET images, our results achieve 8% deviation from "true" estimates, with slightly larger deviations for small and diffuse lesions where establishing ground truth becomes really questionable, and smaller deviations for larger lesions where ground truth set up becomes more reliable. We are currently exploring extensions of the approach to include fully automated body-wide DQ, extensions to just CT or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) alone, to PET/CT performed with radiotracers other than FDG, and other functional forms of disease maps.

Estimating disease prevalence from two-phase surveys with non-response at the second phase

PubMed Central

Gao, Sujuan; Hui, Siu L.; Hall, Kathleen S.; Hendrie, Hugh C.

2010-01-01

SUMMARY In this paper we compare several methods for estimating population disease prevalence from data collected by two-phase sampling when there is non-response at the second phase. The traditional weighting type estimator requires the missing completely at random assumption and may yield biased estimates if the assumption does not hold. We review two approaches and propose one new approach to adjust for non-response assuming that the non-response depends on a set of covariates collected at the first phase: an adjusted weighting type estimator using estimated response probability from a response model; a modelling type estimator using predicted disease probability from a disease model; and a regression type estimator combining the adjusted weighting type estimator and the modelling type estimator. These estimators are illustrated using data from an Alzheimer’s disease study in two populations. Simulation results are presented to investigate the performances of the proposed estimators under various situations. PMID:10931514

New strategies for the management of diverticular disease: insights for the clinician

PubMed Central

Floch, Martin

2013-01-01

Diverticulosis is one of the most common gastrointestinal conditions affecting the general population in the Western world. It is estimated that over 2.5 million people are affected by diverticular disease in the United States. The spectrum of clinical manifestations of diverticulosis ranges from asymptomatic diverticulosis to complicated diverticulitis. Treatment for symptomatic diverticular disease is largely based on symptoms. Traditional therapy includes fiber, bowel rest, antibiotics, pain control and surgery for selected cases. This review discusses recent advances in the medical treatment of diverticular disease such as the use of mesalamine, rifaximin and probiotics as our understanding of the disease evolves. PMID:23634185

Burden Calculator: a simple and open analytical tool for estimating the population burden of injuries.

PubMed

Bhalla, Kavi; Harrison, James E

2016-04-01

Burden of disease and injury methods can be used to summarise and compare the effects of conditions in terms of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Burden estimation methods are not inherently complex. However, as commonly implemented, the methods include complex modelling and estimation. To provide a simple and open-source software tool that allows estimation of incidence-DALYs due to injury, given data on incidence of deaths and non-fatal injuries. The tool includes a default set of estimation parameters, which can be replaced by users. The tool was written in Microsoft Excel. All calculations and values can be seen and altered by users. The parameter sets currently used in the tool are based on published sources. The tool is available without charge online at http://calculator.globalburdenofinjuries.org. To use the tool with the supplied parameter sets, users need to only paste a table of population and injury case data organised by age, sex and external cause of injury into a specified location in the tool. Estimated DALYs can be read or copied from tables and figures in another part of the tool. In some contexts, a simple and user-modifiable burden calculator may be preferable to undertaking a more complex study to estimate the burden of disease. The tool and the parameter sets required for its use can be improved by user innovation, by studies comparing DALYs estimates calculated in this way and in other ways, and by shared experience of its use. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Identifiability and estimation of multiple transmission pathways in cholera and waterborne disease.

PubMed

Eisenberg, Marisa C; Robertson, Suzanne L; Tien, Joseph H

2013-05-07

Cholera and many waterborne diseases exhibit multiple characteristic timescales or pathways of infection, which can be modeled as direct and indirect transmission. A major public health issue for waterborne diseases involves understanding the modes of transmission in order to improve control and prevention strategies. An important epidemiological question is: given data for an outbreak, can we determine the role and relative importance of direct vs. environmental/waterborne routes of transmission? We examine whether parameters for a differential equation model of waterborne disease transmission dynamics can be identified, both in the ideal setting of noise-free data (structural identifiability) and in the more realistic setting in the presence of noise (practical identifiability). We used a differential algebra approach together with several numerical approaches, with a particular emphasis on identifiability of the transmission rates. To examine these issues in a practical public health context, we apply the model to a recent cholera outbreak in Angola (2006). Our results show that the model parameters-including both water and person-to-person transmission routes-are globally structurally identifiable, although they become unidentifiable when the environmental transmission timescale is fast. Even for water dynamics within the identifiable range, when noisy data are considered, only a combination of the water transmission parameters can practically be estimated. This makes the waterborne transmission parameters difficult to estimate, leading to inaccurate estimates of important epidemiological parameters such as the basic reproduction number (R0). However, measurements of pathogen persistence time in environmental water sources or measurements of pathogen concentration in the water can improve model identifiability and allow for more accurate estimation of waterborne transmission pathway parameters as well as R0. Parameter estimates for the Angola outbreak suggest that both transmission pathways are needed to explain the observed cholera dynamics. These results highlight the importance of incorporating environmental data when examining waterborne disease. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Association between GFR Estimated by Multiple Methods at Dialysis Commencement and Patient Survival

PubMed Central

Wong, Muh Geot; Pollock, Carol A.; Cooper, Bruce A.; Branley, Pauline; Collins, John F.; Craig, Jonathan C.; Kesselhut, Joan; Luxton, Grant; Pilmore, Andrew; Harris, David C.

2014-01-01

Summary Background and objectives The Initiating Dialysis Early and Late study showed that planned early or late initiation of dialysis, based on the Cockcroft and Gault estimation of GFR, was associated with identical clinical outcomes. This study examined the association of all-cause mortality with estimated GFR at dialysis commencement, which was determined using multiple formulas. Design, setting, participants, & measurements Initiating Dialysis Early and Late trial participants were stratified into tertiles according to the estimated GFR measured by Cockcroft and Gault, Modification of Diet in Renal Disease, or Chronic Kidney Disease-Epidemiology Collaboration formula at dialysis commencement. Patient survival was determined using multivariable Cox proportional hazards model regression. Results Only Initiating Dialysis Early and Late trial participants who commenced on dialysis were included in this study (n=768). A total of 275 patients died during the study. After adjustment for age, sex, racial origin, body mass index, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease, no significant differences in survival were observed between estimated GFR tertiles determined by Cockcroft and Gault (lowest tertile adjusted hazard ratio, 1.11; 95% confidence interval, 0.82 to 1.49; middle tertile hazard ratio, 1.29; 95% confidence interval, 0.96 to 1.74; highest tertile reference), Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (lowest tertile hazard ratio, 0.88; 95% confidence interval, 0.63 to 1.24; middle tertile hazard ratio, 1.20; 95% confidence interval, 0.90 to 1.61; highest tertile reference), and Chronic Kidney Disease-Epidemiology Collaboration equations (lowest tertile hazard ratio, 0.93; 95% confidence interval, 0.67 to 1.27; middle tertile hazard ratio, 1.15; 95% confidence interval, 0.86 to 1.54; highest tertile reference). Conclusion Estimated GFR at dialysis commencement was not significantly associated with patient survival, regardless of the formula used. However, a clinically important association cannot be excluded, because observed confidence intervals were wide. PMID:24178976

Using structured decision making to manage disease risk for Montana wildlife

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mitchell, Michael S.; Gude, Justin A.; Anderson, Neil J.; Ramsey, Jennifer M.; Thompson, Michael J.; Sullivan, Mark G.; Edwards, Victoria L.; Gower, Claire N.; Cochrane, Jean Fitts; Irwin, Elise R.; Walshe, Terry

2013-01-01

We used structured decision-making to develop a 2-part framework to assist managers in the proactive management of disease outbreaks in Montana, USA. The first part of the framework is a model to estimate the probability of disease outbreak given field observations available to managers. The second part of the framework is decision analysis that evaluates likely outcomes of management alternatives based on the estimated probability of disease outbreak, and applies managers' values for different objectives to indicate a preferred management strategy. We used pneumonia in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) as a case study for our approach, applying it to 2 populations in Montana that differed in their likelihood of a pneumonia outbreak. The framework provided credible predictions of both probability of disease outbreaks, as well as biological and monetary consequences of management actions. The structured decision-making approach to this problem was valuable for defining the challenges of disease management in a decentralized agency where decisions are generally made at the local level in cooperation with stakeholders. Our approach provides local managers with the ability to tailor management planning for disease outbreaks to local conditions. Further work is needed to refine our disease risk models and decision analysis, including robust prediction of disease outbreaks and improved assessment of management alternatives.

[Neglected infectious diseases: an ongoing challenge for public health and equity in Peru].

PubMed

Cabezas-Sánchez, César

2014-04-01

Neglected Infectious Diseases (NID) affect more than one billion people worldwide, and are associated with poverty, geographic isolation of populations, social stigma, lack of precise data on estimates on both the global and local burden of disease (underreporting of the diseases), inadequate financial and political resources to effective control measures, lack of lobbying on behalf of the most vulnerable population, as well as scarce drug and diagnostic methods development. In this article we describe the relationship between NID, poverty and inequality, we propose a new concept of disease in the tropics, expanding the list of diseases that share characteristics with NID in the Peruvian context, discuss the limited availability of drugs and diagnostic tests to properly deal with these diseases, as well as highlight the contributions by the Peruvian National Institute of Health, and as final thoughts, we state that the solution for the prevention and control of NID must include an integrated approach, including the social determinants of health in the context of the fight against poverty and inequality.

A risk adjustment approach to estimating the burden of skin disease in the United States.

PubMed

Lim, Henry W; Collins, Scott A B; Resneck, Jack S; Bolognia, Jean; Hodge, Julie A; Rohrer, Thomas A; Van Beek, Marta J; Margolis, David J; Sober, Arthur J; Weinstock, Martin A; Nerenz, David R; Begolka, Wendy Smith; Moyano, Jose V

2018-01-01

Direct insurance claims tabulation and risk adjustment statistical methods can be used to estimate health care costs associated with various diseases. In this third manuscript derived from the new national Burden of Skin Disease Report from the American Academy of Dermatology, a risk adjustment method that was based on modeling the average annual costs of individuals with or without specific diseases, and specifically tailored for 24 skin disease categories, was used to estimate the economic burden of skin disease. The results were compared with the claims tabulation method used in the first 2 parts of this project. The risk adjustment method estimated the direct health care costs of skin diseases to be $46 billion in 2013, approximately $15 billion less than estimates using claims tabulation. For individual skin diseases, the risk adjustment cost estimates ranged from 11% to 297% of those obtained using claims tabulation for the 10 most costly skin disease categories. Although either method may be used for purposes of estimating the costs of skin disease, the choice of method will affect the end result. These findings serve as an important reference for future discussions about the method chosen in health care payment models to estimate both the cost of skin disease and the potential cost impact of care changes. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Stillbirth With Group B Streptococcus Disease Worldwide: Systematic Review and Meta-analyses

PubMed Central

Seale, Anna C; Blencowe, Hannah; Bianchi-Jassir, Fiorella; Embleton, Nicholas; Bassat, Quique; Ordi, Jaume; Menéndez, Clara; Cutland, Clare; Briner, Carmen; Berkley, James A; Lawn, Joy E; Baker, Carol J; Bartlett, Linda; Gravett, Michael G; Heath, Paul T; Ip, Margaret; Le Doare, Kirsty; Rubens, Craig E; Saha, Samir K; Schrag, Stephanie; Meulen, Ajoke Sobanjo-ter; Vekemans, Johan; Madhi, Shabir A

2017-01-01

Abstract Background There are an estimated 2.6 million stillbirths each year, many of which are due to infections, especially in low- and middle-income contexts. This paper, the eighth in a series on the burden of group B streptococcal (GBS) disease, aims to estimate the percentage of stillbirths associated with GBS disease. Methods We conducted systematic literature reviews (PubMed/Medline, Embase, Literatura Latino-Americana e do Caribe em Ciências da Saúde, World Health Organization Library Information System, and Scopus) and sought unpublished data from investigator groups. Studies were included if they reported original data on stillbirths (predominantly ≥28 weeks’ gestation or ≥1000 g, with GBS isolated from a sterile site) as a percentage of total stillbirths. We did meta-analyses to derive pooled estimates of the percentage of GBS-associated stillbirths, regionally and worldwide for recent datasets. Results We included 14 studies from any period, 5 with recent data (after 2000). There were no data from Asia. We estimated that 1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0–2%) of all stillbirths in developed countries and 4% (95% CI, 2%–6%) in Africa were associated with GBS. Conclusions GBS is likely an important cause of stillbirth, especially in Africa. However, data are limited in terms of geographic spread, with no data from Asia, and cases worldwide are probably underestimated due to incomplete case ascertainment. More data, using standardized, systematic methods, are critical, particularly from low- and middle-income contexts where the highest burden of stillbirths occurs. These data are essential to inform interventions, such as maternal GBS vaccination. PMID:29117322

Costs of Chronic Diseases at the State Level: The Chronic Disease Cost Calculator

PubMed Central

Murphy, Louise B.; Khavjou, Olga A.; Li, Rui; Maylahn, Christopher M.; Tangka, Florence K.; Nurmagambetov, Tursynbek A.; Ekwueme, Donatus U.; Nwaise, Isaac; Chapman, Daniel P.; Orenstein, Diane

2015-01-01

Introduction Many studies have estimated national chronic disease costs, but state-level estimates are limited. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention developed the Chronic Disease Cost Calculator (CDCC), which estimates state-level costs for arthritis, asthma, cancer, congestive heart failure, coronary heart disease, hypertension, stroke, other heart diseases, depression, and diabetes. Methods Using publicly available and restricted secondary data from multiple national data sets from 2004 through 2008, disease-attributable annual per-person medical and absenteeism costs were estimated. Total state medical and absenteeism costs were derived by multiplying per person costs from regressions by the number of people in the state treated for each disease. Medical costs were estimated for all payers and separately for Medicaid, Medicare, and private insurers. Projected medical costs for all payers (2010 through 2020) were calculated using medical costs and projected state population counts. Results Median state-specific medical costs ranged from $410 million (asthma) to $1.8 billion (diabetes); median absenteeism costs ranged from $5 million (congestive heart failure) to $217 million (arthritis). Conclusion CDCC provides methodologically rigorous chronic disease cost estimates. These estimates highlight possible areas of cost savings achievable through targeted prevention efforts or research into new interventions and treatments. PMID:26334712

Deriving health utilities from the MacNew Heart Disease Quality of Life Questionnaire.

PubMed

Chen, Gang; McKie, John; Khan, Munir A; Richardson, Jeff R

2015-10-01

Quality of life is included in the economic evaluation of health services by measuring the preference for health states, i.e. health state utilities. However, most intervention studies include a disease-specific, not a utility, instrument. Consequently, there has been increasing use of statistical mapping algorithms which permit utilities to be estimated from a disease-specific instrument. The present paper provides such algorithms between the MacNew Heart Disease Quality of Life Questionnaire (MacNew) instrument and six multi-attribute utility (MAU) instruments, the Euroqol (EQ-5D), the Short Form 6D (SF-6D), the Health Utilities Index (HUI) 3, the Quality of Wellbeing (QWB), the 15D (15 Dimension) and the Assessment of Quality of Life (AQoL-8D). Heart disease patients and members of the healthy public were recruited from six countries. Non-parametric rank tests were used to compare subgroup utilities and MacNew scores. Mapping algorithms were estimated using three separate statistical techniques. Mapping algorithms achieved a high degree of precision. Based on the mean absolute error and the intra class correlation the preferred mapping is MacNew into SF-6D or 15D. Using the R squared statistic the preferred mapping is MacNew into AQoL-8D. The algorithms reported in this paper enable MacNew data to be mapped into utilities predicted from any of six instruments. This permits studies which have included the MacNew to be used in cost utility analyses which, in turn, allows the comparison of services with interventions across the health system. © The European Society of Cardiology 2014.

Estimation of years lived with disability due to noncommunicable diseases and injuries using a population-representative survey

PubMed Central

Park, Ji In

2017-01-01

The Global Burden of Disease 2010 and the WHO Global Health Estimates of years lived with disability (YLDs) uses disability-weights obtained from lay health-state descriptions, which cannot fully reflect different disease manifestations, according to severity, treatment, and environment. The aim of this study was to provide population-representative YLDs of noncommunicable diseases and injuries using a prevalence-based approach, with the disability weight measured in subjects with specific diseases or injuries. We included a total of 44969 adults, who completed the EQ-5D questionnaire as participation in the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2007–2014. We estimated the prevalence of each of 40 conditions identified from the noncommunicable diseases and injuries in the WHO list. Modified condition-specific disability-weight was determined from the adjusted mean difference of the EQ-5D index between the condition and reference groups. Condition-specific YLDs were calculated as the condition’s prevalence multiplied by the condition’s disability-weight. All-cause YLDs, estimated as “number of population × (1 − mean score of EQ-5D)” were 2165 thousands in 39044 thousand adults aged ≥20. The combined YLDs for all 40 conditions accounted for 67.6% of all-cause YLDs, and were 1604, 2126, 8749, and 12847 per 100000 young (age 20−59) males, young females, old (age ≥60) males, and old females, respectively. Back pain/osteoarthritis YLDs were exceptionally large (442/40, 864/146, 2037/836, and 4644/3039 per 100000 young males, young females, old males, and old females, respectively). Back pain, osteoarthritis, depression, diabetes, periodontitis, and stroke accounted for 22.3%, 9.1%, 4.6%, 3.3%, 3.2%, and 2.9% of all-cause YLDs, respectively. In conclusion, this estimation of YLDs using prevalence rates and disability-weights measured in a population-representative survey may form the basis for population-level strategies to prevent age-related worsening of disability. PMID:28196151

Economic Burden of Human Papillomavirus-Related Diseases in Italy

PubMed Central

Baio, Gianluca; Capone, Alessandro; Marcellusi, Andrea; Mennini, Francesco Saverio; Favato, Giampiero

2012-01-01

Introduction Human papilloma virus (HPV) genotypes 6, 11, 16, and 18 impose a substantial burden of direct costs on the Italian National Health Service that has never been quantified fully. The main objective of the present study was to address this gap: (1) by estimating the total direct medical costs associated with nine major HPV-related diseases, namely invasive cervical cancer, cervical dysplasia, cancer of the vulva, vagina, anus, penis, and head and neck, anogenital warts, and recurrent respiratory papillomatosis, and (2) by providing an aggregate measure of the total economic burden attributable to HPV 6, 11, 16, and 18 infection. Methods For each of the nine conditions, we used available Italian secondary data to estimate the lifetime cost per case, the number of incident cases of each disease, the total economic burden, and the relative prevalence of HPV types 6, 11, 16, and 18, in order to estimate the aggregate fraction of the total economic burden attributable to HPV infection. Results The total direct costs (expressed in 2011 Euro) associated with the annual incident cases of the nine HPV-related conditions included in the analysis were estimated to be €528.6 million, with a plausible range of €480.1–686.2 million. The fraction attributable to HPV 6, 11, 16, and 18 was €291.0 (range €274.5–315.7 million), accounting for approximately 55% of the total annual burden of HPV-related disease in Italy. Conclusions The results provided a plausible estimate of the significant economic burden imposed by the most prevalent HPV-related diseases on the Italian welfare system. The fraction of the total direct lifetime costs attributable to HPV 6, 11, 16, and 18 infections, and the economic burden of noncervical HPV-related diseases carried by men, were found to be cost drivers relevant to the making of informed decisions about future investments in programmes of HPV prevention. PMID:23185412

Estimated Incidence of Antimicrobial Drug-Resistant Nontyphoidal Salmonella Infections, United States, 2004-2012.

PubMed

Medalla, Felicita; Gu, Weidong; Mahon, Barbara E; Judd, Michael; Folster, Jason; Griffin, Patricia M; Hoekstra, Robert M

2016-01-01

Salmonella infections are a major cause of illness in the United States. The antimicrobial agents used to treat severe infections include ceftriaxone, ciprofloxacin, and ampicillin. Antimicrobial drug resistance has been associated with adverse clinical outcomes. To estimate the incidence of resistant culture-confirmed nontyphoidal Salmonella infections, we used Bayesian hierarchical models of 2004-2012 data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National Antimicrobial Resistance Monitoring System and Laboratory-based Enteric Disease Surveillance. We based 3 mutually exclusive resistance categories on susceptibility testing: ceftriaxone and ampicillin resistant, ciprofloxacin nonsusceptible but ceftriaxone susceptible, and ampicillin resistant but ceftriaxone and ciprofloxacin susceptible. We estimated the overall incidence of resistant infections as 1.07/100,000 person-years for ampicillin-only resistance, 0.51/100,000 person-years for ceftriaxone and ampicillin resistance, and 0.35/100,000 person-years for ciprofloxacin nonsusceptibility, or ≈6,200 resistant culture-confirmed infections annually. These national estimates help define the magnitude of the resistance problem so that control measures can be appropriately targeted.

Efficacy and safety of febuxostat in 73 gouty patients with stage 4/5 chronic kidney disease: A retrospective study of 10 centers.

PubMed

Juge, Pierre-Antoine; Truchetet, Marie-Elise; Pillebout, Evangeline; Ottaviani, Sébastien; Vigneau, Cécile; Loustau, Clotilde; Cornec, Divi; Pascart, Tristan; Snanoudj, Renaud; Bailly, Florian; Cornec-Le Gall, Emilie; Schaeverbeke, Thierry; Saraux, Alain; Dieudé, Philippe; Flipo, René-Marc; Richette, Pascal; Lioté, Frédéric; Bardin, Thomas; Chalès, Gérard; Ea, Hang-Korng

2017-10-01

The allopurinol dose is limited in chronic kidney disease, particularly stage 4/5 chronic kidney disease. Febuxostat has a hepatic metabolism and has been approved without dose adaptation in gouty patients with stage 1-3 chronic kidney disease. We aimed to study the safety and efficacy of febuxostat for stage 4/5 chronic kidney disease. In this retrospective study, we included patients with (1) a diagnosis of gout, (2) febuxostat treatment, (3) estimated glomerular filtration rate≤30mL/min/1.73m 2 (Modification of Diet in Renal Disease formula) at febuxostat initiation and (4) follow-up for at least 3 months after febuxostat initiation. Efficacy, safety and variation in estimated glomerular filtration rate were analyzed. We included 73 patients (mean age 70.2±11.8, 61 men, 31 with vascular chronic kidney disease and 18 renal transplantation) with gout (baseline serum uric acid level=9.86±2.85mg/dL, mean gout duration 6.2±7.0 years) from 10 academic centers. Comorbidities included cardiac failure (17.8%), hypertension (98.6%), diabetes mellitus (30.1%), dyslipidemia (64.8%) and history of cardiovascular events (38.4%). At the last visit (mean follow-up 68.5±64.8 weeks), the daily dose of febuxostat was 40mg for 7 patients (10.5%), 80mg for 50 (74.6%) and 120mg for 10 (14.9%). Serum uric acid level was<6mg/dL for 49 patients (67%). Renal function improved for 18 patients, was unchanged for 24 and worsened for 31; 19 patients experienced flares and 1 patient, limb edema. Febuxostat seemed efficient in gouty patients with stage 4/5 chronic kidney disease. However, safety data were not clear regarding renal function. Larger studies are needed to assess safety. Copyright © 2016 Société française de rhumatologie. Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

Decline in mortality from coronary heart disease in Poland after socioeconomic transformation: modelling study

PubMed Central

Bandosz, Piotr; O’Flaherty, Martin; Drygas, Wojciech; Rutkowski, Marcin; Koziarek, Jacek; Wyrzykowski, Bogdan; Bennett, Kathleen; Capewell, Simon

2012-01-01

Objectives To examine how much of the observed rapid decrease in mortality from coronary heart disease in Poland after the political, social, and economic transformation in the early 1990s could be explained by the use of medical and surgical treatments and how much by changes in cardiovascular risk factors. Design A modelling study. Setting Sources of data included controlled trials and meta-analyses, national surveys, and official statistics. Participants Population of adults aged 25-74 in Poland in 1991-2005. Main outcome measures Number of deaths prevented or postponed in 2005 attributable to specific treatments for coronary heart disease and changes in risk factors. A previously validated epidemiological model for coronary heart disease was used to combine and analyse data on the uptake and effectiveness of specific cardiac treatments and changes in risk factors. The observed fall in deaths from coronary heart disease from 1991 to 2005 was then partitioned among specific treatments and risk factor changes. Results From 1991 to 2005, the death rate from coronary heart disease in Poland halved, resulting in 26 200 fewer coronary deaths in 2005 in people aged 25-74. About 37% (minimum estimate 13%, maximum estimate 77%) of this decrease was attributable to treatments, including treatments for heart failure (12%), initial treatments for acute coronary syndrome (9%), secondary prevention treatments after myocardial infarction or revascularisation (7%), chronic angina treatments (3%), and other treatments (6%). About 54% of the fall was attributed to changes in risk factors (minimum estimate 41%, maximum estimate 65%), mainly reductions in total cholesterol concentration (39%) and an increase in leisuretime physical activity (10%); however, these were partially offset by increases in body mass index (−4%) and prevalence of diabetes (−2%). Blood pressure fell in women, explaining about 29% of their decrease in mortality, but rose in men generating a negative influence (−8%). About 15% of the observed decrease in mortality was attributable to reduced smoking in men but was negligible in women. Conclusions Over half of the recent fall in mortality from coronary heart disease in Poland can be attributed to reductions in major risk factors and about one third to evidence based medical treatments. PMID:22279114

Successful diagnosis of HIBCH deficiency from exome sequencing and positive retrospective analysis of newborn screening cards in two siblings presenting with Leigh’s disease

PubMed Central

Stiles, Ashlee R.; Ferdinandusse, Sacha; Besse, Arnaud; Appadurai, Vivek; Leydiker, Karen B.; Cambray-Forker, E.J.; Bonnen, Penelope E.; Abdenur, Jose E.

2016-01-01

Purpose 3-hydroxyisobutryl-CoA hydrolase (HIBCH) deficiency is a rare disorder of valine metabolism. We present a family with the oldest reported subjects with HIBCH deficiency and provide support that HIBCH deficiency should be included in the differential for elevated hydroxy-C4-carnitine in newborn screening (NBS). Methods Whole exome sequencing (WES) was performed on one affected sibling. HIBCH enzymatic activity was measured in patient fibroblasts. Acylcarnitines were measured by electrospray ionization tandem mass spectrometry (ESI-MS/MS). Disease incidence was estimated using a cohort of 61,434 individuals. Results Two siblings presented with infantile-onset, progressive neurodegenerative disease. WES identified a novel homozygous variant in HIBCH c.196C>T; p.Arg66Trp. HIBCH enzymatic activity was significantly reduced in patients’ fibroblasts. Acylcarnitine analysis showed elevated hydroxy-C4-carnitine in blood spots of both affected siblings, including in their NBS cards, while plasma acylcarnitines were normal. Estimates show HIBCH deficiency incidence as high as 1 in ~130,000 individuals. Conclusion We describe a novel family with HIBCH deficiency at the biochemical, enzymatic and molecular level. Disease incidence estimates indicate HIBCH deficiency may be under-diagnosed. This together with the elevated hydroxy-C4-carnitine found in the retrospective analysis of our patient’s NBS cards suggests that this disorder could be screened by NBS programs and should be added to the differential diagnosis for elevated hydroxy-C4-carnitine which is already measured in most NBS programs using MS/MS. PMID:26026795

Dyadic confirmatory factor analysis of the inflammatory bowel disease family responsibility questionnaire.

PubMed

Greenley, Rachel Neff; Reed-Knight, Bonney; Blount, Ronald L; Wilson, Helen W

2013-09-01

Evaluate the factor structure of youth and maternal involvement ratings on the Inflammatory Bowel Disease Family Responsibility Questionnaire, a measure of family allocation of condition management responsibilities in pediatric inflammatory bowel disease. Participants included 251 youth aged 11-18 years with inflammatory bowel disease and their mothers. Item-level descriptive analyses, subscale internal consistency estimates, and confirmatory factor analyses of youth and maternal involvement were conducted using a dyadic data-analytic approach. Results supported the validity of 4 conceptually derived subscales including general health maintenance, social aspects, condition management tasks, and nutrition domains. Additionally, results indicated adequate support for the factor structure of a 21-item youth involvement measure and strong support for a 16-item maternal involvement measure. Additional empirical support for the validity of the Inflammatory Bowel Disease Family Responsibility Questionnaire was provided. Future research to replicate current findings and to examine the measure's clinical utility is warranted.

Phenotypic, genetic, and single nucleotide polymorphism marker associations between calf diseases and subsequent performance and disease occurrences of first-lactation German Holstein cows.

PubMed

Mahmoud, M; Yin, T; Brügemann, K; König, S

2017-03-01

A total of 31,396 females born from 2010 to 2013 in 43 large-scale Holstein-Friesian herds were phenotyped for calf and cow disease traits using a veterinarian diagnosis key. Calf diseases were general disease status (cGDS), calf diarrhea (cDIA), and calf respiratory disease (cRD) recorded from birth to 2 mo of age. Incidences were 0.48 for cGDS, 0.28 for cRD, and 0.21 for cDIA. Cow disease trait recording focused on the early period directly after calving in first parity, including the interval from 10 d before calving to 200 d in lactation. For cows, at least one entry for the respective disease implied a score = 1 (sick); otherwise, score = 0 (healthy). Corresponding cow diseases were first-lactation general disease status (flGDS), first-lactation diarrhea (flDIA), and first-lactation respiratory disease (flRD). Additional cow disease categories included mastitis (flMAST), claw disorders (flCLAW), female fertility disorders (flFF), and metabolic disorders (flMET). A further cow trait category considered first-lactation test-day production traits from official test-days 1 and 2 after calving. The genotype data set included 41,256 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) from 9,388 females with phenotypes. Linear and generalized linear mixed models with a logit link-function were applied to Gaussian and categorical cow traits, respectively, considering the calf disease as a fixed effect. Most of the calf diseases were not significantly associated with the occurrence of any cow disease. By trend, increasing risks for the occurrence of cow diseases were observed for healthy calves, indicating mechanisms of disease resistance with aging. Also by trend, occurrence of calf diseases was associated with decreasing milk, protein, and fat yields. Univariate linear and threshold animal models were used to estimate heritabilities and breeding values (EBV) for all calf and cow traits. Heritabilities for cGDS and cRD were 0.06 and 0.07 for cDIA. Genetic correlations among all traits were estimated using linear-linear animal models in a series of bivariate runs. The genetic correlation between cDIA and cRD was 0.29. Apart from the genetic correlation between flRD with cGDS (-0.38), EBV correlations and genetic correlations between calf diseases with all cow traits were close to zero. Genome-wide association studies were applied to estimate SNP effects for cRD and cDIA, and for the corresponding traits observed in cows (flRD and flDIA). Different significant SNP markers contributed to cDIA and flDIA, or to cRD and flRD. The average correlation coefficient between cRD and flRD considering SNP effects from all chromosomes was 0.01, and between cDIA and flDIA was -0.04. In conclusion, calf diseases are not appropriate early predictors for cow traits during the early lactation stage in parity 1. Copyright © 2017 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The role of models in estimating consequences as part of the risk assessment process.

PubMed

Forde-Folle, K; Mitchell, D; Zepeda, C

2011-08-01

The degree of disease risk represented by the introduction, spread, or establishment of one or several diseases through the importation of animals and animal products is assessed by importing countries through an analysis of risk. The components of a risk analysis include hazard identification, risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication. A risk assessment starts with identification of the hazard(s) and then continues with four interrelated steps: release assessment, exposure assessment, consequence assessment, and risk estimation. Risk assessments may be either qualitative or quantitative. This paper describes how, through the integration of epidemiological and economic models, the potential adverse biological and economic consequences of exposure can be quantified.

Imaging of non alcoholic fatty liver disease: A road less travelled.

PubMed

Singh, Divya; Das, Chandan J; Baruah, Manas P

2013-11-01

Non alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a spectrum that includes simple steatosis, nonalcoholic steatohepatitis and cirrhosis. It is increasingly emerging as a cause of elevated liver enzymes, cryptogenic cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. The morbidity and mortality related to NAFLD is expected to rise with the upsurge of obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus. The need of the hour is to devise techniques to estimate and then accurately follow-up hepatic fat content in patients with NAFLD. There are lots of imaging modalities in the radiological armamentarium, namely, ultrasonography with the extra edge of elastography, computed tomography, and magnetic resonance imaging with chemical shift imaging and spectroscopy to provide an estimation of hepatic fat content.

HIV Model Parameter Estimates from Interruption Trial Data including Drug Efficacy and Reservoir Dynamics

PubMed Central

Luo, Rutao; Piovoso, Michael J.; Martinez-Picado, Javier; Zurakowski, Ryan

2012-01-01

Mathematical models based on ordinary differential equations (ODE) have had significant impact on understanding HIV disease dynamics and optimizing patient treatment. A model that characterizes the essential disease dynamics can be used for prediction only if the model parameters are identifiable from clinical data. Most previous parameter identification studies for HIV have used sparsely sampled data from the decay phase following the introduction of therapy. In this paper, model parameters are identified from frequently sampled viral-load data taken from ten patients enrolled in the previously published AutoVac HAART interruption study, providing between 69 and 114 viral load measurements from 3–5 phases of viral decay and rebound for each patient. This dataset is considerably larger than those used in previously published parameter estimation studies. Furthermore, the measurements come from two separate experimental conditions, which allows for the direct estimation of drug efficacy and reservoir contribution rates, two parameters that cannot be identified from decay-phase data alone. A Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo method is used to estimate the model parameter values, with initial estimates obtained using nonlinear least-squares methods. The posterior distributions of the parameter estimates are reported and compared for all patients. PMID:22815727

Global Association of Air Pollution and Cardiorespiratory Diseases: A Systematic Review, Meta-Analysis, and Investigation of Modifier Variables

PubMed Central

Adams, Matthew D.; Arain, Altaf; Papatheodorou, Stefania; Koutrakis, Petros; Mahmoud, Moataz

2018-01-01

Background. Little is known about the health risks of air pollution and cardiorespiratory diseases, globally, across regions and populations, which may differ because of external factors. Objectives. We systematically reviewed the evidence on the association between air pollution and cardiorespiratory diseases (hospital admissions and mortality), including variability by energy, transportation, socioeconomic status, and air quality. Search Methods. We conducted a literature search (PubMed and Web of Science) for studies published between 2006 and May 11, 2016. Selection Criteria. We included studies if they met all of the following criteria: (1) considered at least 1 of these air pollutants: carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, ozone, or particulate matter (PM2.5 or PM10); (2) reported risk for hospital admissions, mortality, or both; (3) presented individual results for respiratory diseases, cardiovascular diseases, or both; (4) considered the age groups younger than 5 years, older than 65 years, or all ages; and (5) did not segregate the analysis by gender. Data Collection and Analysis. We extracted data from each study, including location, health outcome, and risk estimates. We performed a meta-analysis to estimate the overall effect and to account for both within- and between-study heterogeneity. Then, we applied a model selection (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) to assess the modifier variables, and, lastly, we performed meta-regression analyses to evaluate the modifier variables contributing to heterogeneity among studies. Main Results. We assessed 2183 studies, of which we selected 529 for in-depth review, and 70 articles fulfilled our study inclusion criteria. The 70 studies selected for meta-analysis encompass more than 30 million events across 28 countries. We found positive associations between cardiorespiratory diseases and different air pollutants. For example, when we considered only the association between PM2.5 and respiratory diseases (Figure 1, we observed a risk equal to 2.7% (95% confidence interval = 0.9%, 7.7%). Our results showed statistical significance in the test of moderators for all pollutants, suggesting that the modifier variables influence the average cardiorespiratory disease risk and may explain the varying effects of air pollution. Conclusions. Variables related to aspects of energy, transportation, and socioeconomic status may explain the varying effect size of the association between air pollution and cardiorespiratory diseases. Public Health Implications. Our study provides a transferable model to estimate the health effects of air pollutants to support the creation of environmental health public policies for national and international intervention. PMID:29072932

Deaths and Medical Visits Attributable to Environmental Pollution in the United Arab Emirates

PubMed Central

MacDonald Gibson, Jacqueline; Thomsen, Jens; Launay, Frederic; Harder, Elizabeth; DeFelice, Nicholas

2013-01-01

Background This study estimates the potential health gains achievable in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) with improved controls on environmental pollution. The UAE is an emerging economy in which population health risks have shifted rapidly from infectious diseases to chronic conditions observed in developed nations. The UAE government commissioned this work as part of an environmental health strategic planning project intended to address this shift in the nature of the country’s disease burden. Methods and Findings We assessed the burden of disease attributable to six environmental exposure routes outdoor air, indoor air, drinking water, coastal water, occupational environments, and climate change. For every exposure route, we integrated UAE environmental monitoring and public health data in a spatially resolved Monte Carlo simulation model to estimate the annual disease burden attributable to selected pollutants. The assessment included the entire UAE population (4.5 million for the year of analysis). The study found that outdoor air pollution was the leading contributor to mortality, with 651 attributable deaths (95% confidence interval [CI] 143–1,440), or 7.3% of all deaths. Indoor air pollution and occupational exposures were the second and third leading contributors to mortality, with 153 (95% CI 85–216) and 46 attributable deaths (95% CI 26–72), respectively. The leading contributor to health-care facility visits was drinking water pollution, to which 46,600 (95% CI 15,300–61,400) health-care facility visits were attributed (about 15% of the visits for all the diseases considered in this study). Major study limitations included (1) a lack of information needed to translate health-care facility visits to quality-adjusted-life-year estimates and (2) insufficient spatial coverage of environmental data. Conclusions Based on international comparisons, the UAE’s environmental disease burden is low for all factors except outdoor air pollution. From a public health perspective, reducing pollutant emissions to outdoor air should be a high priority for the UAE’s environmental agencies. PMID:23469200

Deaths and medical visits attributable to environmental pollution in the United Arab Emirates.

PubMed

MacDonald Gibson, Jacqueline; Thomsen, Jens; Launay, Frederic; Harder, Elizabeth; DeFelice, Nicholas

2013-01-01

This study estimates the potential health gains achievable in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) with improved controls on environmental pollution. The UAE is an emerging economy in which population health risks have shifted rapidly from infectious diseases to chronic conditions observed in developed nations. The UAE government commissioned this work as part of an environmental health strategic planning project intended to address this shift in the nature of the country's disease burden. We assessed the burden of disease attributable to six environmental exposure routes outdoor air, indoor air, drinking water, coastal water, occupational environments, and climate change. For every exposure route, we integrated UAE environmental monitoring and public health data in a spatially resolved Monte Carlo simulation model to estimate the annual disease burden attributable to selected pollutants. The assessment included the entire UAE population (4.5 million for the year of analysis). The study found that outdoor air pollution was the leading contributor to mortality, with 651 attributable deaths (95% confidence interval [CI] 143-1,440), or 7.3% of all deaths. Indoor air pollution and occupational exposures were the second and third leading contributors to mortality, with 153 (95% CI 85-216) and 46 attributable deaths (95% CI 26-72), respectively. The leading contributor to health-care facility visits was drinking water pollution, to which 46,600 (95% CI 15,300-61,400) health-care facility visits were attributed (about 15% of the visits for all the diseases considered in this study). Major study limitations included (1) a lack of information needed to translate health-care facility visits to quality-adjusted-life-year estimates and (2) insufficient spatial coverage of environmental data. Based on international comparisons, the UAE's environmental disease burden is low for all factors except outdoor air pollution. From a public health perspective, reducing pollutant emissions to outdoor air should be a high priority for the UAE's environmental agencies.

Meta-analysis of the association between short-term exposure to ambient ozone and respiratory hospital admissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, Meng; Cohan, Daniel S.; Bell, Michelle L.

2011-04-01

Ozone is associated with health impacts including respiratory outcomes; however, results differ across studies. Meta-analysis is an increasingly important approach to synthesizing evidence across studies. We conducted meta-analysis of short-term ozone exposure and respiratory hospitalizations to evaluate variation across studies and explore some of the challenges in meta-analysis. We identified 136 estimates from 96 studies and investigated how estimates differed by age, ozone metric, season, lag, region, disease category, and hospitalization type. Overall results indicate associations between ozone and various kinds of respiratory hospitalizations; however, study characteristics affected risk estimates. Estimates were similar, but higher, for the elderly compared to all ages and for previous day exposure compared to same day exposure. Comparison across studies was hindered by variation in definitions of disease categories, as some (e.g., asthma) were identified through >= 3 different sets of ICD codes. Although not all analyses exhibited evidence of publication bias, adjustment for publication bias generally lowered overall estimates. Emergency hospitalizations for total respiratory disease increased by 4.47% (95% interval: 2.48, 6.50%) per 10 ppb 24 h ozone among the elderly without adjustment for publication bias and 2.97% (1.05, 4.94%) with adjustment. Comparison of multi-city study results and meta-analysis based on single-city studies further suggested publication bias.

Estimating meningitis hospitalization rates for sentinel hospitals conducting invasive bacterial vaccine-preventable diseases surveillance.

PubMed

2013-10-04

The World Health Organization (WHO)-coordinated Global Invasive Bacterial Vaccine-Preventable Diseases (IB-VPD) sentinel hospital surveillance network provides data for decision making regarding use of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine and Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) vaccine, both recommended for inclusion in routine childhood immunization programs worldwide. WHO recommends that countries conduct sentinel hospital surveillance for meningitis among children aged <5 years, including collection of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) for laboratory detection of bacterial etiologies. Surveillance for pneumonia and sepsis are recommended at selected hospitals with well-functioning laboratories where meningitis surveillance consistently meets process indicators (e.g., surveillance performance indicators). To use sentinel hospital surveillance for meningitis to estimate meningitis hospitalization rates, WHO developed a rapid method to estimate the number of children at-risk for meningitis in a sentinel hospital catchment area. Monitoring changes in denominators over time using consistent methods is essential for interpreting changes in sentinel surveillance incidence data and for assessing the effect of vaccine introduction on disease epidemiology. This report describes the method and its use in The Gambia and Senegal.

Overview of Celiac Disease in Russia: Regional Data and Estimated Prevalence

PubMed Central

Erdes, Svetlana I.; Antishin, Anton S.

2017-01-01

Celiac disease (CD) is an autoimmune enteropathy triggered by the ingestion of dietary gluten from some cereals mainly in individuals carrying the HLA-DQ2 and/or HLA-DQ8 haplotypes. As an autoimmune disease, CD is manifested in the small intestine in the form of a progressive and reversible inflammatory lesion due to immune response to self-antigens. Indeed, CD is one of the most challenging medicosocial problems in current gastroenterology. At present, the global CD prevalence is estimated at approximately 1% based on data sent from different locations and available CD screening strategies used. However, it is impossible to estimate global CD prevalence without all the data from the world, including Russia. In this review, we summarize the data on the incidence and prevalence of CD across geographically distinct regions of Russia, which are mostly present in local Russian scientific sources. Our conclusion is that the situation of CD prevalence in Russia is higher than is commonly believed and follows global tendencies that correspond to the epidemiologic situation in Europe, America, and Southwest Asia. PMID:28316996

Overview of Celiac Disease in Russia: Regional Data and Estimated Prevalence.

PubMed

Savvateeva, Lyudmila V; Erdes, Svetlana I; Antishin, Anton S; Zamyatnin, Andrey A

2017-01-01

Celiac disease (CD) is an autoimmune enteropathy triggered by the ingestion of dietary gluten from some cereals mainly in individuals carrying the HLA-DQ2 and/or HLA-DQ8 haplotypes. As an autoimmune disease, CD is manifested in the small intestine in the form of a progressive and reversible inflammatory lesion due to immune response to self-antigens. Indeed, CD is one of the most challenging medicosocial problems in current gastroenterology. At present, the global CD prevalence is estimated at approximately 1% based on data sent from different locations and available CD screening strategies used. However, it is impossible to estimate global CD prevalence without all the data from the world, including Russia. In this review, we summarize the data on the incidence and prevalence of CD across geographically distinct regions of Russia, which are mostly present in local Russian scientific sources. Our conclusion is that the situation of CD prevalence in Russia is higher than is commonly believed and follows global tendencies that correspond to the epidemiologic situation in Europe, America, and Southwest Asia.

Simulation-Based Estimates of the Effectiveness and Cost-Effectiveness of Pulmonary Rehabilitation in Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease in France.

PubMed

Atsou, Kokuvi; Crequit, Perrine; Chouaid, Christos; Hejblum, Gilles

2016-01-01

The medico-economic impact of pulmonary rehabilitation in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is poorly documented. To estimate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of pulmonary rehabilitation in a hypothetical cohort of COPD patients. We used a multi-state Markov model, adopting society's perspective. Simulated cohorts of French GOLD stage 2 to 4 COPD patients with and without pulmonary rehabilitation were compared in terms of life expectancy, quality-adjusted life years (QALY), disease-related costs, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Sensitivity analyses included variations of key model parameters. At the horizon of a COPD patient's remaining lifetime, pulmonary rehabilitation would result in mean gain of 0.8 QALY, with an over disease-related costs of 14 102 € per patient. The ICER was 17 583 €/QALY. Sensitivity analysis showed that pulmonary rehabilitation was cost-effective in every scenario (ICER <50 000 €/QALY). These results should provide a useful basis for COPD pulmonary rehabilitation programs.

Mountains, Melting Pot, and Microcosm: Health Care Delay and Dengue/Zika Interplay on Hawaii Island.

PubMed

Baenziger, Nancy L

2016-11-01

Human history in the Hawaiian Islands offers a sobering study in the population dynamics of infectious disease. The indigenous population numbering an estimated half million people prior to Western contact in 1778 was reduced to less than 24,000 by 1920. Much of the decline occurred in the earliest decades after contact with Western diseases including measles, chicken pox, polio, tuberculosis, and venereal disease. A recent outbreak on the Island of Hawaii (also called the Big Island) of imported dengue fever, an illness endemic in 100 countries affecting an estimated 100-400 million people worldwide, provides insights into the problems and prospects for health care policy in managing mosquito-borne disease in a multicultural setting of geographic isolation and health care provider shortage. This incident represents in microcosm a practice run, applicable in many contexts, for an initial localized appearance of Zika virus infection, with important lessons for effective health care management in a rapidly moving and fluid arena.

The Burden of Pulmonary Nontuberculous Mycobacterial Disease in the United States

PubMed Central

Strollo, Sara E.; Adjemian, Jennifer; Adjemian, Michael K.

2015-01-01

Rationale: State-specific case numbers and costs are critical for quantifying the burden of pulmonary nontuberculous mycobacterial disease in the United States. Objectives: To estimate and project national and state annual cases of nontuberculous mycobacterial disease and associated direct medical costs. Methods: Available direct cost estimates of nontuberculous mycobacterial disease medical encounters were applied to nontuberculous mycobacterial disease prevalence estimates derived from Medicare beneficiary data (2003–2007). Prevalence was adjusted for International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, undercoding and the inclusion of persons younger than 65 years of age. U.S. Census Bureau data identified 2010 and 2014 population counts and 2012 primary insurance-type distribution. Medical costs were reported in constant 2014 dollars. Projected 2014 estimates were adjusted for population growth and assumed a previously published 8% annual growth rate of nontuberculous mycobacterial disease prevalence. Measurements and Main Results: In 2010, we estimated 86,244 national cases, totaling to $815 million, of which 87% were inpatient related ($709 million) and 13% were outpatient related ($106 million). Annual state estimates varied from 48 to 12,544 cases ($503,000–$111 million), with a median of 1,208 cases ($11.5 million). Oceanic coastline states and Gulf States comprised 70% of nontuberculous mycobacterial disease cases but 60% of the U.S. population. Medical encounters among individuals aged 65 years and older ($562 million) were twofold higher than those younger than 65 years of age ($253 million). Of all costs incurred, medications comprised 76% of nontuberculous mycobacterial disease expenditures. Projected 2014 estimates resulted in 181,037 national annual cases ($1.7 billion). Conclusions: For a relatively rare disease, the financial cost of nontuberculous mycobacterial disease is substantial, particularly among older adults. Better data on disease dynamics and more recent prevalence estimates will generate more robust estimates. PMID:26214350

Tuberculosis Comorbidity with Communicable and Noncommunicable Diseases

PubMed Central

Bates, Matthew; Marais, Ben J.; Zumla, Alimuddin

2015-01-01

The 18th WHO Global Tuberculosis Annual Report indicates that there were an estimated 8.6 million incident cases of tuberculosis (TB) in 2012, which included 2.9 million women and 530,000 children. TB caused 1.3 million deaths including 320,000 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected people; three-quarters of deaths occurred in Africa and Southeast Asia. With one-third of the world’s population latently infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), active TB disease is primarily associated with a break down in immune surveillance. This explains the strong link between active TB disease and other communicable diseases (CDs) or noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) that exert a toll on the immune system. Comorbid NCD risk factors include diabetes, smoking, malnutrition, and chronic lung disease, all of which have increased relentlessly over the past decade in developing countries. The huge overlap between killer infections such as TB, HIV, malaria, and severe viral infections with NCDs, results in a “double burden of disease” in developing countries. The current focus on vertical disease programs fails to recognize comorbidities or to encourage joint management approaches. This review highlights major disease overlaps and discusses the rationale for better integration of tuberculosis care with services for NCDs and other infectious diseases to enhance the overall efficiency of the public health responses. PMID:25659380

The global burden of disease due to outdoor air pollution.

PubMed

Cohen, Aaron J; Ross Anderson, H; Ostro, Bart; Pandey, Kiran Dev; Krzyzanowski, Michal; Künzli, Nino; Gutschmidt, Kersten; Pope, Arden; Romieu, Isabelle; Samet, Jonathan M; Smith, Kirk

As part of the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Burden of Disease Comparative Risk Assessment, the burden of disease attributable to urban ambient air pollution was estimated in terms of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Air pollution is associated with a broad spectrum of acute and chronic health effects, the nature of which may vary with the pollutant constituents. Particulate air pollution is consistently and independently related to the most serious effects, including lung cancer and other cardiopulmonary mortality. The analyses on which this report is based estimate that ambient air pollution, in terms of fine particulate air pollution (PM(2.5)), causes about 3% of mortality from cardiopulmonary disease, about 5% of mortality from cancer of the trachea, bronchus, and lung, and about 1% of mortality from acute respiratory infections in children under 5 yr, worldwide. This amounts to about 0.8 million (1.2%) premature deaths and 6.4 million (0.5%) years of life lost (YLL). This burden occurs predominantly in developing countries; 65% in Asia alone. These estimates consider only the impact of air pollution on mortality (i.e., years of life lost) and not morbidity (i.e., years lived with disability), due to limitations in the epidemiologic database. If air pollution multiplies both incidence and mortality to the same extent (i.e., the same relative risk), then the DALYs for cardiopulmonary disease increase by 20% worldwide.

Utility of Equations to Estimate Peak Oxygen Uptake and Work Rate From a 6-Minute Walk Test in Patients With COPD in a Clinical Setting.

PubMed

Kirkham, Amy A; Pauhl, Katherine E; Elliott, Robyn M; Scott, Jen A; Doria, Silvana C; Davidson, Hanan K; Neil-Sztramko, Sarah E; Campbell, Kristin L; Camp, Pat G

2015-01-01

To determine the utility of equations that use the 6-minute walk test (6MWT) results to estimate peak oxygen uptake ((Equation is included in full-text article.)o2) and peak work rate with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients in a clinical setting. This study included a systematic review to identify published equations estimating peak (Equation is included in full-text article.)o2 and peak work rate in watts in COPD patients and a retrospective chart review of data from a hospital-based pulmonary rehabilitation program. The following variables were abstracted from the records of 42 consecutively enrolled COPD patients: measured peak (Equation is included in full-text article.)o2 and peak work rate achieved during a cycle ergometer cardiopulmonary exercise test, 6MWT distance, age, sex, weight, height, forced expiratory volume in 1 second, forced vital capacity, and lung diffusion capacity. Estimated peak (Equation is included in full-text article.)o2 and peak work rate were estimated from 6MWT distance using published equations. The error associated with using estimated peak (Equation is included in full-text article.)o2 or peak work to prescribe aerobic exercise intensities of 60% and 80% was calculated. Eleven equations from 6 studies were identified. Agreement between estimated and measured values was poor to moderate (intraclass correlation coefficients = 0.11-0.63). The error associated with using estimated peak (Equation is included in full-text article.)o2 or peak work rate to prescribe exercise intensities of 60% and 80% of measured values ranged from mean differences of 12 to 35 and 16 to 47 percentage points, respectively. There is poor to moderate agreement between measured peak (Equation is included in full-text article.)o2 and peak work rate and estimations from equations that use 6MWT distance, and the use of the estimated values for prescription of aerobic exercise intensity would result in large error. Equations estimating peak (Equation is included in full-text article.)o2 and peak work rate are of low utility for prescribing exercise intensity in pulmonary rehabilitation programs.

Dynamics of the microbiota found in the vaginas of dairy cows during the transition period: Associations with uterine diseases and reproductive outcome.

PubMed

Bicalho, M L S; Santin, T; Rodrigues, M X; Marques, C E; Lima, S F; Bicalho, R C

2017-04-01

We investigated the microbiota found in the vaginas of Holstein dairy cows during the transition period and described the differences in bacterial composition and total bacterial load (TBL) associated with disease and fertility. Vaginal swabs were collected at -7, 0, 3, and 7 d relative to parturition from 111 dairy cows housed on a commercial dairy farm near Ithaca, New York. Microbiota were characterized by next-generation DNA sequencing of the bacterial 16S rRNA gene, and TBL was determined by real-time quantitative PCR. We applied repeated-measures ANOVA to evaluate the associations of uterine disease and related risk factors with the microbiota and TBL. We estimated phylum-specific bacterial load by multiplying the TBL by the relative abundance of each phylum observed in the metagenomics results. We confirmed the validity of this approach for estimating bacterial load by enumerating the number of bacteria in an artificial sample mixed in vitro and in clinical and healthy vaginal samples. Phyla associated with uterine disease and related risk factors were Proteobacteria, Fusobacteria, and Bacteroidetes. Cows with retained placenta and healthy cows had similar TBL at the day of parturition, but at d 7 postpartum, cows with retained placenta showed a significantly higher TBL, mainly driven by higher estimated loads of Fusobacteria and Bacteroidetes. Cows diagnosed with metritis had a significantly higher estimated load of Proteobacteria at d -7 and at calving and higher estimated loads of Fusobacteria in the postpartum samples. Additionally, the estimated load of Bacteroidetes at d 7 postpartum was higher for cows diagnosed with endometritis at 35 days in milk. Higher estimated loads of Fusobacteria and Bacteroidetes were also evident in cows with postpartum fever, in primiparous cows, in cows with assisted parturition, and in cows that gave birth to twins. Our findings demonstrated that microbiota composition and TBL were associated with known periparturient risk factors of uterine diseases and reproductive failure, including parity, assisted parturition, and retained fetal membranes. Copyright © 2017 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An overall estimation of losses caused by diseases in the Brazilian fish farms.

PubMed

Tavares-Dias, Marcos; Martins, Maurício Laterça

2017-12-01

Parasitic and infectious diseases are common in finfish, but are difficult to accurately estimate the economic impacts on the production in a country with large dimensions like Brazil. The aim of this study was to estimate the costs caused by economic losses of finfish due to mortality by diseases in Brazil. A model for estimating the costs related to parasitic and bacterial diseases in farmed fish and an estimative of these economic impacts are presented. We used official data of production and mortality of finfish for rough estimation of economic losses. The losses herein presented are related to direct and indirect economic costs for freshwater farmed fish, which were estimated in US$ 84 million per year. Finally, it was possible to establish by the first time an estimative of overall losses in finfish production in Brazil using data available from production. Therefore, this current estimative must help researchers and policy makers to approximate the economic costs of diseases for fish farming industry, as well as for developing of public policies on the control measures of diseases and priority research lines.

Prevalence and treatment of depression in Parkinson's disease.

PubMed

Veazey, Connie; Aki, Sahinde Ozlem Erden; Cook, Karon F; Lai, Eugene C; Kunik, Mark E

2005-01-01

Parkinson's disease (PD) is a progressive neurological condition with debilitating symptoms, and depression is a common comorbid condition of this disease. The authors review existing literature on the prevalence and treatment of depression in PD. Prevalence estimates of depression vary widely, ranging from 7%-76%. This variation is due to inconsistent methodology. Treatment options for depression in PD include medication therapy, electroconvulsive therapy (ECT), and psychotherapy. There are few randomized controlled trials of these treatment options. The authors argue for more systematic and controlled research examining both the prevalence and treatment of depression in PD.

Alaska Native Parkinson’s Disease Registry

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-11-01

DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response...reviewing this collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including...of law, no person shall be subject to any penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB

Intra-annual patterns in adult band-tailed pigeon survival estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Casazza, Michael L.; Coates, Peter S.; Overton, Cory T.; Howe, Kristy H.

2015-01-01

Implications: We present the first inter-seasonal analysis of survival probability of the Pacific coast race of band-tailed pigeons and illustrate important temporal patterns that may influence future species management including harvest strategies and disease monitoring.

Prion Amplification and Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling Refine Detection of Prion Infection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wyckoff, A. Christy; Galloway, Nathan; Meyerett-Reid, Crystal; Powers, Jenny; Spraker, Terry; Monello, Ryan J.; Pulford, Bruce; Wild, Margaret; Antolin, Michael; Vercauteren, Kurt; Zabel, Mark

2015-02-01

Prions are unique infectious agents that replicate without a genome and cause neurodegenerative diseases that include chronic wasting disease (CWD) of cervids. Immunohistochemistry (IHC) is currently considered the gold standard for diagnosis of a prion infection but may be insensitive to early or sub-clinical CWD that are important to understanding CWD transmission and ecology. We assessed the potential of serial protein misfolding cyclic amplification (sPMCA) to improve detection of CWD prior to the onset of clinical signs. We analyzed tissue samples from free-ranging Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni) and used hierarchical Bayesian analysis to estimate the specificity and sensitivity of IHC and sPMCA conditional on simultaneously estimated disease states. Sensitivity estimates were higher for sPMCA (99.51%, credible interval (CI) 97.15-100%) than IHC of obex (brain stem, 76.56%, CI 57.00-91.46%) or retropharyngeal lymph node (90.06%, CI 74.13-98.70%) tissues, or both (98.99%, CI 90.01-100%). Our hierarchical Bayesian model predicts the prevalence of prion infection in this elk population to be 18.90% (CI 15.50-32.72%), compared to previous estimates of 12.90%. Our data reveal a previously unidentified sub-clinical prion-positive portion of the elk population that could represent silent carriers capable of significantly impacting CWD ecology.

Prion amplification and hierarchical Bayesian modeling refine detection of prion infection.

PubMed

Wyckoff, A Christy; Galloway, Nathan; Meyerett-Reid, Crystal; Powers, Jenny; Spraker, Terry; Monello, Ryan J; Pulford, Bruce; Wild, Margaret; Antolin, Michael; VerCauteren, Kurt; Zabel, Mark

2015-02-10

Prions are unique infectious agents that replicate without a genome and cause neurodegenerative diseases that include chronic wasting disease (CWD) of cervids. Immunohistochemistry (IHC) is currently considered the gold standard for diagnosis of a prion infection but may be insensitive to early or sub-clinical CWD that are important to understanding CWD transmission and ecology. We assessed the potential of serial protein misfolding cyclic amplification (sPMCA) to improve detection of CWD prior to the onset of clinical signs. We analyzed tissue samples from free-ranging Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni) and used hierarchical Bayesian analysis to estimate the specificity and sensitivity of IHC and sPMCA conditional on simultaneously estimated disease states. Sensitivity estimates were higher for sPMCA (99.51%, credible interval (CI) 97.15-100%) than IHC of obex (brain stem, 76.56%, CI 57.00-91.46%) or retropharyngeal lymph node (90.06%, CI 74.13-98.70%) tissues, or both (98.99%, CI 90.01-100%). Our hierarchical Bayesian model predicts the prevalence of prion infection in this elk population to be 18.90% (CI 15.50-32.72%), compared to previous estimates of 12.90%. Our data reveal a previously unidentified sub-clinical prion-positive portion of the elk population that could represent silent carriers capable of significantly impacting CWD ecology.

Disease activity, obesity, functional disability, and depression in patients with rheumatoid arthritis : Impact on lipid status, glycoregulation, and risk for coronary heart disease.

PubMed

Ostojic, P; Bartolovic, D

2016-09-01

This study aims to estimate the impact of disease activity, obesity, functional disability, and depression on lipid status, glycoregulation, and risk for coronary heart disease (CHD) in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). A total of 36 patients with RA (30 women and 6 men, mean age 54.9 years, mean disease duration 7.9 years) were included in this study. We estimated the impact of age, body mass index, disease activity [assessed by DAS28 index and C-reactive protein (CRP) value], functional ability (estimated using the HAQ disability index), and depression [assessed using the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI)] on glycoregulation, lipid status, and risk for CHD in our patients. Glycoregulation was assessed by measuring insulin resistance, insulin, and glucose in blood. Lipids tested in blood included total cholesterol, HDL and LDL cholesterol, and triglycerides (TG). The 10-year risk for CHD was estimated using the Framingham risk score. Of 36 patients, 11 (30.6 %) fulfilled the criteria for metabolic syndrome (MS). Ten of 11 patients (90.1 %) with MS have a 10-year risk for CHD greater than 10 % compared to only 3 of 25 patients (12 %) without MS (p = 0.0001). Patients with high disease activity had lower HDL values than patients with mild or moderate disease activity (1.4 vs. 1.7 mmol/l, p = 0.04). Significant correlations were observed between CRP level and insulinemia (ρ = 0.57, p = 0.003), as well as CRP level and the HOMA index (ρ = 0.59, p = 0.002). The body mass index (BMI) correlated significantly with total cholesterol (r = 0.46, p = 0.02), LDL (ρ = 0.41, p = 0.04), and TG (ρ = 0.65, p < 0.001) in blood. The HAQ-DI did not correlate either with parameters of glycoregulation or lipid status. There was a significant positive correlation between BDI and BMI (ρ = 0.60, p < 0.001). Active RA is independently associated with decreased HDL cholesterol and increased insulin resistance. Obesity was found to be an independent risk factor for increased total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, and TG. Depressed patients with RA tend to be overweight or obese and, therefore, have an unfavorable lipid profile.

Opportunities for collaborative phenotyping for disease resistance traits in a large beef cattle resource population.

PubMed

Thallman, R M; Kuehn, L A; Allan, M F; Bennett, G L; Koohmaraie, M

2008-01-01

The Germplasm Evaluation (GPE) Project at the US Meat Animal Research Center (USMARC) is planned to produce about 3,000 calves per year in support of the following objectives: identification and validation of genetic polymorphisms related to economically relevant traits (ERT), estimation of breed and heterosis effects among 16 breeds for ERT, and estimation of genetic correlations among ERT and physiological indicator traits (PIT). Opportunities exist for collaboration in the development and collection of PIT phenotypes for disease resistance. Other areas of potential collaboration include detailed diagnosis (identification of disease causing organisms, etc.) of treated animals, collaborative development of epidemiological statistical models that would extract more information from the records of diagnoses and treatments, or pharmacogenetics. Concentrating a variety of different phenotypes and research approaches on the same population makes each component much more valuable than it would be individually.

Systolic arterial blood pressure estimated by mitral regurgitation velocity, high definition oscillometry, and Doppler ultrasonography in dogs with naturally occurring degenerative mitral valve disease.

PubMed

Hanzlicek, A S; Baumwart, R D; Payton, M E

2016-09-01

To determine if systolic blood pressure estimated by mitral regurgitation (MR) velocity can be used interchangeably with that estimated by high definition oscillometry (HDO) and Doppler ultrasonography (DU) in dogs with naturally occurring mitral valve disease (MVD). Forty-nine client-owned dogs with naturally occurring MVD. This is a retrospective study. Medical records were reviewed and dogs with MR caused by degenerative MVD were included if systolic blood pressure was estimated from MR velocity determined by continuous wave Doppler (CW), DU and HDO at the same visit. A Pearson product moment correlation coefficient was determined for each combination of measures and tested for significance with a paired t-test. Limits of agreement between 2 measures were determined by the 95% confidence interval of the average difference of the means and illustrated by Bland-Altman plots. Systolic pressure estimated from CW was significantly but only moderately correlated to DU (r = 0.42, p=0.0015) and HDO (r = 0.40, p=0.0021). Pressure estimated from DU was significantly but only moderately correlated to HDO (r = 0.57, p≤0.0001). Limits of agreement were wide for all measures including DU and CW (-61.9to 44.6 mmHg), HDO and CW (-65.2to 26.9 mmHg), and HDO and DU (-63.1 to 42.06 mmHg). Systolic blood pressure estimated by CW cannot be used interchangeably with HDO or DU in dogs with naturally occurring MVD. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

TESTING PRACTICES AND VOLUME OF NON-LYME TICKBORNE DISEASES IN THE UNITED STATES

PubMed Central

Connally, Neeta P.; Hinckley, Alison F.; Feldman, Katherine A.; Kemperman, Melissa; Neitzel, David; Wee, Siok-Bi; White, Jennifer L.; Mead, Paul S.; Meek, James I.

2015-01-01

Large commercial laboratories in the United States were surveyed regarding the number of specimens tested for eight tickborne diseases in 2008. Seven large commercial laboratories reported testing a total of 2,927,881 specimens nationally (including Lyme disease). Of these, 495,585 specimens (17 percent) were tested for tickborne diseases other than Lyme disease. In addition to large commercial laboratories, another 1,051 smaller commercial, hospital, and government laboratories in four states (CT, MD, MN, and NY) were surveyed regarding tickborne disease testing frequency, practices, and results. Ninety-two of these reported testing a total of 10,091 specimens for four tickborne diseases other than Lyme disease. We estimate the cost of laboratory diagnostic testing for non-Lyme disease tickborne diseases in 2008 to be $9.6 million. These data provide a baseline to evaluate trends in tickborne disease test utilization and insight into the burden of these diseases. PMID:26565931

Effects of communicating DNA-based disease risk estimates on risk-reducing behaviours.

PubMed

Marteau, Theresa M; French, David P; Griffin, Simon J; Prevost, A T; Sutton, Stephen; Watkinson, Clare; Attwood, Sophie; Hollands, Gareth J

2010-10-06

There are high expectations regarding the potential for the communication of DNA-based disease risk estimates to motivate behaviour change. To assess the effects of communicating DNA-based disease risk estimates on risk-reducing behaviours and motivation to undertake such behaviours. We searched the following databases using keywords and medical subject headings: Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL, The Cochrane Library, Issue 4 2010), MEDLINE (1950 to April 2010), EMBASE (1980 to April 2010), PsycINFO (1985 to April 2010) using OVID SP, and CINAHL (EBSCO) (1982 to April 2010). We also searched reference lists, conducted forward citation searches of potentially eligible articles and contacted authors of relevant studies for suggestions. There were no language restrictions. Unpublished or in press articles were eligible for inclusion. Randomised or quasi-randomised controlled trials involving adults (aged 18 years and over) in which one group received actual (clinical studies) or imagined (analogue studies) personalised DNA-based disease risk estimates for diseases for which the risk could plausibly be reduced by behavioural change. Eligible studies had to include a primary outcome measure of risk-reducing behaviour or motivation (e.g. intention) to alter such behaviour. Two review authors searched for studies and independently extracted data. We assessed risk of bias according to the Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions. For continuous outcome measures, we report effect sizes as standardised mean differences (SMDs). For dichotomous outcome measures, we report effect sizes as odds ratios (ORs). We obtained pooled effect sizes with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using the random effects model applied on the scale of standardised differences and log odds ratios. We examined 5384 abstracts and identified 21 studies as potentially eligible. Following a full text analysis, we included 14 papers reporting results of 7 clinical studies (2 papers report on the same trial) and 6 analogue studies.Of the seven clinical studies, five assessed smoking cessation. Meta-analyses revealed no statistically significant effects on either short-term (less than 6 months) smoking cessation (OR 1.35, 95% CI 0.76 to 2.39, P = 0.31, n = 3 studies) or cessation after six months (OR 1.07, 95% CI 0.64 to 1.78, P = 0.80, n = 4 studies). Two clinical studies assessed diet and found effects that significantly favoured DNA-based risk estimates (OR 2.24, 95% CI 1.17 to 4.27, P = 0.01). No statistically significant effects were found in the two studies assessing physical activity (OR 1.03, 95% CI 0.59 to 1.80, P = 0.92) or the one study assessing medication or vitamin use aimed at reducing disease risks (OR 1.26, 95% CI 0.58 to 2.72, P = 0.56). For the six non-clinical analogue studies, meta-analysis revealed a statistically significant effect of DNA-based risk on intention to change behaviour (SMD 0.16, 95% CI 0.04 to 0.29, P = 0.01).There was no evidence that communicating DNA-based disease risk estimates had any unintended adverse effects. Two studies that assessed fear arousal immediately after the presentation of risk information did, however, report greater fear arousal in the DNA-based disease risk estimate groups compared to comparison groups.The quality of included studies was generally poor. None of the clinical or analogue studies were considered to have a low risk of bias, due to either a lack of clarity in reporting, or where details were reported, evidence of a failure to sufficiently safeguard against the risk of bias. Mindful of the weak evidence based on a small number of studies of limited quality, the results of this review suggest that communicating DNA-based disease risk estimates has little or no effect on smoking and physical activity. It may have a small effect on self-reported diet and on intentions to change behaviour. Claims that receiving DNA-based test results motivates people to change their behaviour are not supported by evidence. Larger and better-quality RCTs are needed.

Methodological considerations in cost of illness studies on Alzheimer disease

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Cost-of-illness studies (COI) can identify and measure all the costs of a particular disease, including the direct, indirect and intangible dimensions. They are intended to provide estimates about the economic impact of costly disease. Alzheimer disease (AD) is a relevant example to review cost of illness studies because of its costliness.The aim of this study was to review relevant published cost studies of AD to analyze the method used and to identify which dimension had to be improved from a methodological perspective. First, we described the key points of cost study methodology. Secondly, cost studies relating to AD were systematically reviewed, focussing on an analysis of the different methods used. The methodological choices of the studies were analysed using an analytical grid which contains the main methodological items of COI studies. Seventeen articles were retained. Depending on the studies, annual total costs per patient vary from $2,935 to $52, 954. The methods, data sources, and estimated cost categories in each study varied widely. The review showed that cost studies adopted different approaches to estimate costs of AD, reflecting a lack of consensus on the methodology of cost studies. To increase its credibility, closer agreement among researchers on the methodological principles of cost studies would be desirable. PMID:22963680

The impact of alcohol consumption on African people in 2012: an analysis of burden of disease.

PubMed

Ferreira-Borges, Carina; Rehm, Jürgen; Dias, Sónia; Babor, Thomas; Parry, Charles D H

2016-01-01

To determine the impact of alcohol consumption on deaths and disability in Africa. We estimated alcohol exposure for 2012, and its impact on deaths and disability in Africa using estimates from the WHO Global Health Estimates for outcome data, and the WHO Global Status Report on Alcohol and Health 2014 for risk relations. We provide a scenario that includes the impact of alcohol on HIV/AIDS incidence, and qualitative predictions on future exposure and harm. Overall, alcohol consumption has a large impact on burden of disease and mortality in African countries. Alcohol-attributable disease burden is more important when the impact of alcohol consumption on the incidence and course of HIV/AIDS is taken into account, with alcohol being responsible, in 2012, for 6.4% of all deaths and 4.7% of all DALYs lost in the African region. Alcohol exposure is expected to increase in the next years, and thus alcohol-attributable fractions. The weight of new evidence, especially of alcohol's role in the incidence and course of HIV/AIDS, is particularly relevant to African countries and points to the need for a strong policy response to reduce the alcohol-related burden of disease on the continent. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Prospective Study of Particulate Air Pollution Exposures, Subclinical Atherosclerosis, and Clinical Cardiovascular Disease

PubMed Central

Kaufman, Joel D.; Adar, Sara D.; Allen, Ryan W.; Barr, R. Graham; Budoff, Matthew J.; Burke, Gregory L.; Casillas, Adrian M.; Cohen, Martin A.; Curl, Cynthia L.; Daviglus, Martha L.; Roux, Ana V. Diez; Jacobs, David R.; Kronmal, Richard A.; Larson, Timothy V.; Liu, Sally Lee-Jane; Lumley, Thomas; Navas-Acien, Ana; O'Leary, Daniel H.; Rotter, Jerome I.; Sampson, Paul D.; Sheppard, Lianne; Siscovick, David S.; Stein, James H.; Szpiro, Adam A.; Tracy, Russell P.

2012-01-01

The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air) was initiated in 2004 to investigate the relation between individual-level estimates of long-term air pollution exposure and the progression of subclinical atherosclerosis and the incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD). MESA Air builds on a multicenter, community-based US study of CVD, supplementing that study with additional participants, outcome measurements, and state-of-the-art air pollution exposure assessments of fine particulate matter, oxides of nitrogen, and black carbon. More than 7,000 participants aged 45–84 years are being followed for over 10 years for the identification and characterization of CVD events, including acute myocardial infarction and other coronary artery disease, stroke, peripheral artery disease, and congestive heart failure; cardiac procedures; and mortality. Subcohorts undergo baseline and follow-up measurements of coronary artery calcium using computed tomography and carotid artery intima-medial wall thickness using ultrasonography. This cohort provides vast exposure heterogeneity in ranges currently experienced and permitted in most developed nations, and the air monitoring and modeling methods employed will provide individual estimates of exposure that incorporate residence-specific infiltration characteristics and participant-specific time-activity patterns. The overarching study aim is to understand and reduce uncertainty in health effect estimation regarding long-term exposure to air pollution and CVD. PMID:23043127

Deterministic and stochastic CTMC models from Zika disease transmission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zevika, Mona; Soewono, Edy

2018-03-01

Zika infection is one of the most important mosquito-borne diseases in the world. Zika virus (ZIKV) is transmitted by many Aedes-type mosquitoes including Aedes aegypti. Pregnant women with the Zika virus are at risk of having a fetus or infant with a congenital defect and suffering from microcephaly. Here, we formulate a Zika disease transmission model using two approaches, a deterministic model and a continuous-time Markov chain stochastic model. The basic reproduction ratio is constructed from a deterministic model. Meanwhile, the CTMC stochastic model yields an estimate of the probability of extinction and outbreaks of Zika disease. Dynamical simulations and analysis of the disease transmission are shown for the deterministic and stochastic models.

Assessing the Effects of Disease and Bleaching on Florida ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Coral diseases have increased in frequency over the past few decades and have important influences on the structure and composition of coral reef communities. However, there is limited information on the etiologies of many coral diseases, and pathways via which coral diseases are acquired and transmitted are still in question. Furthermore, it is difficult to assess the impacts of disease on coral populations because outbreaks often co-occur with temperature-induced bleaching and anthropogenic stressors. We developed spatially-explicit population models of coral disease and bleaching dynamics to quantify the impact of six common diseases on Florida Keys corals, including aspergillosis, dark spots, white band, white plague, white patch, and yellow band. Models were fit to an 8-year data set of coral abundance, disease prevalence, and bleaching prevalence. Model selection was used to assess alternative pathways for disease transmission, and the influence of environmental stressors, including sea temperature and human population density, on disease prevalence and coral mortality. Classic disease transmission from contagious to susceptible colonies provided the best model only for aspergillosis. For other diseases, direct transmission from the external environment provided the best fit to observed data. Estimates of disease reproductive ratio values (R0) were less than one for each disease, indicating coral colonies were below densities required for diseases

Mortality from Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis and Parkinson's Disease Among Different Occupation Groups - United States, 1985-2011.

PubMed

Beard, John D; Steege, Andrea L; Ju, Jun; Lu, John; Luckhaupt, Sara E; Schubauer-Berigan, Mary K

2017-07-14

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and Parkinson's disease, both progressive neurodegenerative diseases, affect >1 million Americans (1,2). Consistently reported risk factors for ALS include increasing age, male sex, and cigarette smoking (1); risk factors for Parkinson's disease include increasing age, male sex, and pesticide exposure, whereas cigarette smoking and caffeine consumption are inversely associated (2). Relative to cancer or respiratory diseases, the role of occupation in neurologic diseases is much less studied and less well understood (3). CDC evaluated associations between usual occupation and ALS and Parkinson's disease mortality using data from CDC's National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) National Occupational Mortality Surveillance (NOMS), a population-based surveillance system that includes approximately 12.1 million deaths from 30 U.S. states.* Associations were estimated using proportionate mortality ratios (PMRs), standardizing indirectly by age, sex, race, and calendar year to the standard population of all NOMS deaths with occupation information. Occupations associated with higher socioeconomic status (SES) had elevated ALS and Parkinson's disease mortality. The shifts in the U.S. workforce toward older ages and higher SES occupations † highlight the importance of understanding this finding, which will require studies with designs that provide evidence for causality, detailed exposure assessment, and adjustment for additional potential confounders.

The usefulness of "corrected" body mass index vs. self-reported body mass index: comparing the population distributions, sensitivity, specificity, and predictive utility of three correction equations using Canadian population-based data.

PubMed

Dutton, Daniel J; McLaren, Lindsay

2014-05-06

National data on body mass index (BMI), computed from self-reported height and weight, is readily available for many populations including the Canadian population. Because self-reported weight is found to be systematically under-reported, it has been proposed that the bias in self-reported BMI can be corrected using equations derived from data sets which include both self-reported and measured height and weight. Such correction equations have been developed and adopted. We aim to evaluate the usefulness (i.e., distributional similarity; sensitivity and specificity; and predictive utility vis-à-vis disease outcomes) of existing and new correction equations in population-based research. The Canadian Community Health Surveys from 2005 and 2008 include both measured and self-reported values of height and weight, which allows for construction and evaluation of correction equations. We focused on adults age 18-65, and compared three correction equations (two correcting weight only, and one correcting BMI) against self-reported and measured BMI. We first compared population distributions of BMI. Second, we compared the sensitivity and specificity of self-reported BMI and corrected BMI against measured BMI. Third, we compared the self-reported and corrected BMI in terms of association with health outcomes using logistic regression. All corrections outperformed self-report when estimating the full BMI distribution; the weight-only correction outperformed the BMI-only correction for females in the 23-28 kg/m2 BMI range. In terms of sensitivity/specificity, when estimating obesity prevalence, corrected values of BMI (from any equation) were superior to self-report. In terms of modelling BMI-disease outcome associations, findings were mixed, with no correction proving consistently superior to self-report. If researchers are interested in modelling the full population distribution of BMI, or estimating the prevalence of obesity in a population, then a correction of any kind included in this study is recommended. If the researcher is interested in using BMI as a predictor variable for modelling disease, then both self-reported and corrected BMI result in biased estimates of association.

Childhood interstitial lung disease due to surfactant protein C deficiency: frequent use and costs of hospital services for a single case in Australia.

PubMed

Hime, Neil J; Fitzgerald, Dominic; Robinson, Paul; Selvadurai, Hiran; Van Asperen, Peter; Jaffé, Adam; Zurynski, Yvonne

2014-03-19

Rare chronic diseases of childhood are often complex and associated with multiple health issues. Such conditions present significant demands on health services, but the degree of these demands is seldom reported. This study details the utilisation of hospital services and associated costs in a single case of surfactant protein C deficiency, an example of childhood interstitial lung disease. Hospital records and case notes for a single patient were reviewed. Costs associated with inpatient services were extracted from a paediatric hospital database. Actual costs were compared to cost estimates based on both disease/procedure-related cost averages for inpatient hospital episodes and a recently implemented Australian hospital funding algorithm (activity-based funding). To age 8 years and 10 months the child was a hospital inpatient for 443 days over 32 admissions. A total of 298 days were spent in paediatric intensive care. Investigations included 58 chest x-rays, 9 bronchoscopies, 10 lung function tests and 11 sleep studies. Comprehensive disease management failed to prevent respiratory decline and a lung transplant was required. Costs of inpatient care at three tertiary hospitals totalled $966,531 (Australian dollars). Disease- and procedure-related cost averages underestimated costs of paediatric inpatient services for this patient by 68%. An activity-based funding algorithm that is currently being adopted in Australia estimated the cost of hospital health service provision with more accuracy. Health service usage and inpatient costs for this case of rare chronic childhood respiratory disease were substantial. This case study demonstrates that disease- and procedure-related cost averages are insufficient to estimate costs associated with rare chronic diseases that require complex management. This indicates that the health service use for similar episodes of hospital care is greater for children with rare diseases than other children. The impacts of rare chronic childhood diseases should be considered when planning resources for paediatric health services.

Impact of statin adherence on cardiovascular disease and mortality outcomes: a systematic review

PubMed Central

De Vera, Mary A; Bhole, Vidula; Burns, Lindsay C; Lacaille, Diane

2014-01-01

Aims While suboptimal adherence to statin medication has been quantified in real-world patient settings, a better understanding of its impact is needed, particularly with respect to distinct problems of medication taking. Our aim was to synthesize current evidence on the impacts of statin adherence, discontinuation and persistence on cardiovascular disease and mortality outcomes. Methods We conducted a systematic review of peer-reviewed studies using a mapped search of Medline, Embase and International Pharmaceutical Abstracts databases. Observational studies that met the following criteria were included: defined patient population; statin adherence exposure; defined study outcome [i.e. cardiovascular disease (CVD), mortality]; and reporting of statin-specific results. Results Overall, 28 studies were included, with 19 studies evaluating outcomes associated with statin adherence, six with statin discontinuation and three with statin persistence. Among adherence studies, the proportion of days covered was the most widely used measure, with the majority of studies reporting increased risk of CVD (statistically significant risk estimates ranging from 1.22 to 5.26) and mortality (statistically significant risk estimates ranging from 1.25 to 2.54) among non-adherent individuals. There was greater methodological variability in discontinuation and persistence studies. However, findings of increased CVD (statistically significant risk estimates ranging from 1.22 to 1.67) and mortality (statistically significant risk estimates ranging from 1.79 to 5.00) among nonpersistent individuals were also consistently reported. Conclusions Observational studies consistently report an increased risk of adverse outcomes associated with poor statin adherence. These findings have important implications for patients and physicians and emphasize the importance of monitoring and encouraging adherence to statin therapy. PMID:25364801

Overdiagnosis across medical disciplines: a scoping review

PubMed Central

de Groot, Joris A H; Reitsma, Johannes B; Moons, Karel G M; Hooft, Lotty; Naaktgeboren, Christiana A

2017-01-01

Objective To provide insight into how and in what clinical fields overdiagnosis is studied and give directions for further applied and methodological research. Design Scoping review. Data sources Medline up to August 2017. Study selection All English studies on humans, in which overdiagnosis was discussed as a dominant theme. Data extraction Studies were assessed on clinical field, study aim (ie, methodological or non-methodological), article type (eg, primary study, review), the type and role of diagnostic test(s) studied and the context in which these studies discussed overdiagnosis. Results From 4896 studies, 1851 were included for analysis. Half of all studies on overdiagnosis were performed in the field of oncology (50%). Other prevalent clinical fields included mental disorders, infectious diseases and cardiovascular diseases accounting for 9%, 8% and 6% of studies, respectively. Overdiagnosis was addressed from a methodological perspective in 20% of studies. Primary studies were the most common article type (58%). The type of diagnostic tests most commonly studied were imaging tests (32%), although these were predominantly seen in oncology and cardiovascular disease (84%). Diagnostic tests were studied in a screening setting in 43% of all studies, but as high as 75% of all oncological studies. The context in which studies addressed overdiagnosis related most frequently to its estimation, accounting for 53%. Methodology on overdiagnosis estimation and definition provided a source for extensive discussion. Other contexts of discussion included definition of disease, overdiagnosis communication, trends in increasing disease prevalence, drivers and consequences of overdiagnosis, incidental findings and genomics. Conclusions Overdiagnosis is discussed across virtually all clinical fields and in different contexts. The variability in characteristics between studies and lack of consensus on overdiagnosis definition indicate the need for a uniform typology to improve coherence and comparability of studies on overdiagnosis. PMID:29284720

Clinical evaluation incorporating a personal genome

PubMed Central

Ashley, Euan A.; Butte, Atul J.; Wheeler, Matthew T.; Chen, Rong; Klein, Teri E.; Dewey, Frederick E.; Dudley, Joel T.; Ormond, Kelly E.; Pavlovic, Aleksandra; Hudgins, Louanne; Gong, Li; Hodges, Laura M.; Berlin, Dorit S.; Thorn, Caroline F.; Sangkuhl, Katrin; Hebert, Joan M.; Woon, Mark; Sagreiya, Hersh; Whaley, Ryan; Morgan, Alexander A.; Pushkarev, Dmitry; Neff, Norma F; Knowles, Joshua W.; Chou, Mike; Thakuria, Joseph; Rosenbaum, Abraham; Zaranek, Alexander Wait; Church, George; Greely, Henry T.; Quake, Stephen R.; Altman, Russ B.

2010-01-01

Background The cost of genomic information has fallen steeply but the path to clinical translation of risk estimates for common variants found in genome wide association studies remains unclear. Since the speed and cost of sequencing complete genomes is rapidly declining, more comprehensive means of analyzing these data in concert with rare variants for genetic risk assessment and individualisation of therapy are required. Here, we present the first integrated analysis of a complete human genome in a clinical context. Methods An individual with a family history of vascular disease and early sudden death was evaluated. Clinical assessment included risk prediction for coronary artery disease, screening for causes of sudden cardiac death, and genetic counselling. Genetic analysis included the development of novel methods for the integration of whole genome sequence data including 2.6 million single nucleotide polymorphisms and 752 copy number variations. The algorithm focused on predicting genetic risk of genes associated with known Mendelian disease, recognised drug responses, and pathogenicity for novel variants. In addition, since integration of risk ratios derived from case control studies is challenging, we estimated posterior probabilities from age and sex appropriate prior probability and likelihood ratios derived for each genotype. In addition, we developed a visualisation approach to account for gene-environment interactions and conditionally dependent risks. Findings We found increased genetic risk for myocardial infarction, type II diabetes and certain cancers. Rare variants in LPA are consistent with the family history of coronary artery disease. Pharmacogenomic analysis suggested a positive response to lipid lowering therapy, likely clopidogrel resistance, and a low initial dosing requirement for warfarin. Many variants of uncertain significance were reported. Interpretation Although challenges remain, our results suggest that whole genome sequencing can yield useful and clinically relevant information for individual patients, especially for those with a strong family history of significant disease. PMID:20435227

The cost of a case of subclinical ketosis in Canadian dairy herds

PubMed Central

Gohary, Khaled; Overton, Michael W.; Von Massow, Michael; LeBlanc, Stephen J.; Lissemore, Kerry D.; Duffield, Todd F.

2016-01-01

The objective of this study was to develop a model to estimate the cost of a case of subclinical ketosis (SCK) in Canadian dairy herds. Costs were derived from the default inputs, and included increased clinical disease incidence attributable to SCK, $76; longer time to pregnancy, $57; culling and death in early lactation attributable to SCK, $26; milk production loss, $44. Given these figures, the cost of 1 case of SCK was estimated to be $203. Sensitivity analysis showed that the estimated cost of a case of SCK was most sensitive to the herd-level incidence of SCK and the cost of 1 day open. In conclusion, SCK negatively impacts dairy herds and losses are dependent on the herd-level incidence and factors included in the calculation. PMID:27429460

The cost of a case of subclinical ketosis in Canadian dairy herds.

PubMed

Gohary, Khaled; Overton, Michael W; Von Massow, Michael; LeBlanc, Stephen J; Lissemore, Kerry D; Duffield, Todd F

2016-07-01

The objective of this study was to develop a model to estimate the cost of a case of subclinical ketosis (SCK) in Canadian dairy herds. Costs were derived from the default inputs, and included increased clinical disease incidence attributable to SCK, $76; longer time to pregnancy, $57; culling and death in early lactation attributable to SCK, $26; milk production loss, $44. Given these figures, the cost of 1 case of SCK was estimated to be $203. Sensitivity analysis showed that the estimated cost of a case of SCK was most sensitive to the herd-level incidence of SCK and the cost of 1 day open. In conclusion, SCK negatively impacts dairy herds and losses are dependent on the herd-level incidence and factors included in the calculation.

Breast Milk-Acquired Cytomegalovirus Infection and Disease in Very Low Birth Weight and Premature Infants

PubMed Central

Lanzieri, Tatiana M.; Dollard, Sheila C.; Josephson, Cassandra D.; Schmid, D. Scott; Bialek, Stephanie R.

2016-01-01

Introduction Very low birth weight (VLBW) and premature infants are at risk of developing postnatal cytomegalovirus (CMV) disease, including CMV-related sepsis-like syndrome (CMV-SLS). Estimates of breast milk-acquired CMV infection and disease among these infants in the United States are lacking. Methods We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate the pooled proportions (and 95% confidence intervals) of VLBW and premature infants born to CMV-seropositive women with breast milk-acquired CMV infection and CMV-SLS. We combined these proportions with population-based rates of CMV seropositivity, breast milk feeding, VLBW and prematurity to estimate annual rates of breast milk-acquired CMV infection and CMV-SLS in the United States. Results In our meta-analysis, among 299 infants fed untreated breast milk, we estimated 19% (11%–32%) acquired CMV infection and 4% (2%–7%) developed CMV-SLS. Assuming these proportions, we estimated a rate of breast milk-acquired CMV infection among VLBW and premature infants in the United States of 6.5% (3.7%–10.9%) and 1.4% (0.7%–2.4%) of CMV-SLS, corresponding to 600 infants with CMV-SLS in 2008. Among 212 infants fed frozen breast milk, our meta-analysis proportions were 13% (7%–24%) for infection and 5% (2%–12%) for CMV-SLS, yielding slightly lower rates of breast milk-acquired CMV infection (4.4%; 2.4%–6.8%) but similar rates of CMV-SLS (1.7%; 0.7%–4.1%). Conclusions Breast milk-acquired CMV infection presenting with CMV-SLS is relatively rare. Prospective studies to better define the burden of disease are needed to refine guidelines for feeding breast milk from CMV-seropositive mothers to VLBW and premature infants. PMID:23713111

Importance of patient history and physical examination in rheumatoid arthritis compared to other chronic diseases: results of a physician survey.

PubMed

Castrejón, Isabel; McCollum, Lauren; Tanriover, Mine Durusu; Pincus, Theodore

2012-08-01

To survey physicians' opinions concerning the relative importance of 5 clinical encounter components-vital signs, patient history, physical examination, laboratory tests, and ancillary studies-in the diagnosis and management of 8 chronic diseases. A SurveyMonkey internet survey was e-mailed to 7,265 US physicians, including 3,542 rheumatologists and 3,723 nonrheumatologists, with the following query: "Please indicate the relative importance of 5 sources of information-vital signs, patient history, physical examination, laboratory tests, and ancillary studies-in diagnosis of congestive heart failure (CHF), diabetes mellitus, hypercholesterolemia, hypertension, lymphoma, pulmonary fibrosis, rheumatoid arthritis (RA), and ulcerative colitis." The response options were 0-20%, 21-40%, 41-60%, 61-80%, and 81-100%. A second query with an identical structure addressed management of the 8 diseases. The proportions of physicians who estimated each component as most (or tied for most) important in diagnosis or in management were computed. The survey was completed by 313 physicians (154 rheumatologists and 159 nonrheumatologists). More than 90% estimated vital signs as most important for hypertension, and laboratory tests for diabetes mellitus and hypercholesterolemia. More than 70% estimated ancillary studies as most important for lymphoma, pulmonary fibrosis, and ulcerative colitis. Patient history and physical examination were estimated as most important for RA and CHF by ≥50% of nonrheumatologists. RA and CHF were the only 2 of the 8 diseases studied for which ≥50% of nonrheumatologists estimated a patient history and physical examination as most important for diagnosis and management. Confirmation and extension of these observations in actual care may have implications for reimbursement and organization of clinical care. Copyright © 2012 by the American College of Rheumatology.

The effect of statins on renal outcomes in patients with diabetic kidney disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Qin, Xin; Dong, Hui; Fang, Ke; Lu, Fuer

2017-09-01

The effects of statins on renal outcomes in patients with diabetic kidney disease were conflicting. The aim of the study was to investigate whether statins treatment could affect renal outcomes (albuminuria or proteinuria, estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR]) for diabetic kidney disease patients. We searched the PubMed, OVID (including MEDLINE and EMBASE), Web of Science and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Randomized controlled trials evaluating the efficacy of statins in diabetic kidney disease patients were selected. The main outcomes were albuminuria (or proteinuria). Secondary outcomes were levels of eGFR. Two authors independently assessed study quality and extracted the information from enrolled trials. Eleven randomized controlled trials with a total number of 543 diabetic kidney disease participants were included in our study. The overall estimates showed that statins statistically reduced albuminuria (standardized mean differences -0.71, 95% CI -1.20 to -0.23, P = .004), though marked heterogeneity was found within studies. However, the analysis results indicated that statins could not reduce overt proteinuria (standardized mean differences -0.14, 95% CI -0.53 to 0.26, P = .49) or slow the rate of reduction in eGFR (standardized mean differences 0.06, 95% CI -0.14 to 0.26, P = .53). In general, our study demonstrated that statins might have beneficial effects on reducing albuminuria in diabetic kidney disease patients. However, there was no strong evidence that the same intervention had an effect on overt proteinuria or eGFR outcomes in these patients. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The natural history of HIV infection in intravenous drug users: risk of disease progression in a cohort of seroconverters.

PubMed

Rezza, G; Lazzarin, A; Angarano, G; Sinicco, A; Pristerà, R; Ortona, L; Barbanera, M; Gafà, S; Tirelli, U; Salassa, B

1989-02-01

A multicentre cohort study was carried out to estimate the incidence of AIDS and HIV-related conditions in newly infected intravenous drug users (IVDU). The enrollment criteria included the identification of the seroconversion time. Two hundred and five subjects entered the study, and were followed for a mean of 26 months. Twelve subjects developed clinical AIDS over a 4-year period. The actuarial incidence of AIDS estimated by Kaplan-Meier survival technique was 17.8% by 4 years since seroconversion. The risk of developing AIDS increased significantly after 24 months from seroconversion. Relatively small figures accounted for the lack of statistical association between the risk factors investigated and the disease status.

Impact of probability estimation on frequency of urine culture requests in ambulatory settings.

PubMed

Gul, Naheed; Quadri, Mujtaba

2012-07-01

To determine the perceptions of the medical community about urine culture in diagnosing urinary tract infections. The cross-sectional survey based of consecutive sampling was conducted at Shifa International Hospital, Islamabad, on 200 doctors, including medical students of the Shifa College of Medicine, from April to October 2010. A questionnaire with three common clinical scenarios of low, intermediate and high pre-test probability for urinary tract infection was used to assess the behaviour of the respondents to make a decision for urine culture test. The differences between the reference estimates and the respondents' estimates of pre- and post-test probability were assessed. The association of estimated probabilities with the number of tests ordered was also evaluated. The respondents were also asked about the cost effectiveness and safety of urine culture and sensitivity. Data was analysed using SPSS version 15. In low pre-test probability settings, the disease probability was over-estimated, suggesting the participants' inability to rule out the disease. The post-test probabilities were, however, under-estimated by the doctors as compared to the students. In intermediate and high pre-test probability settings, both over- and underestimation of probabilities were noticed. Doctors were more likely to consider ordering the test as the disease probability increased. Most of the respondents were of the opinion that urine culture was a cost-effective test and there was no associated potential harm. The wide variation in the clinical use of urine culture necessitates the formulation of appropriate guidelines for the diagnostic use of urine culture, and application of Bayesian probabilistic thinking to real clinical situations.

Distribution of malaria exposure in endemic countries in Africa considering country levels of effective treatment.

PubMed

Penny, Melissa A; Maire, Nicolas; Bever, Caitlin A; Pemberton-Ross, Peter; Briët, Olivier J T; Smith, David L; Gething, Peter W; Smith, Thomas A

2015-10-05

Malaria prevalence, clinical incidence, treatment, and transmission rates are dynamically interrelated. Prevalence is often considered a measure of malaria transmission, but treatment of clinical malaria reduces prevalence, and consequently also infectiousness to the mosquito vector and onward transmission. The impact of the frequency of treatment on prevalence in a population is generally not considered. This can lead to potential underestimation of malaria exposure in settings with good health systems. Furthermore, these dynamical relationships between prevalence, treatment, and transmission have not generally been taken into account in estimates of burden. Using prevalence as an input, estimates of disease incidence and transmission [as the distribution of the entomological inoculation rate (EIR)] for Plasmodium falciparum have now been made for 43 countries in Africa using both empirical relationships (that do not allow for treatment) and OpenMalaria dynamic micro-simulation models (that explicitly include the effects of treatment). For each estimate, prevalence inputs were taken from geo-statistical models fitted for the year 2010 by the Malaria Atlas Project to all available observed prevalence data. National level estimates of the effectiveness of case management in treating clinical attacks were used as inputs to the estimation of both EIR and disease incidence by the dynamic models. When coverage of effective treatment is taken into account, higher country level estimates of average EIR and thus higher disease burden, are obtained for a given prevalence level, especially where access to treatment is high, and prevalence relatively low. These methods provide a unified framework for comparison of both the immediate and longer-term impacts of case management and of preventive interventions.

Diet, nutrients and metabolism: cogs in the wheel driving Alzheimer's disease pathology?

PubMed

Creegan, Rhona; Hunt, Wendy; McManus, Alexandra; Rainey-Smith, Stephanie R

2015-05-28

Alzheimer's disease (AD), the most common form of dementia, is a chronic, progressive neurodegenerative disease that manifests clinically as a slow global decline in cognitive function, including deterioration of memory, reasoning, abstraction, language and emotional stability, culminating in a patient with end-stage disease, totally dependent on custodial care. With a global ageing population, it is predicted that there will be a marked increase in the number of people diagnosed with AD in the coming decades, making this a significant challenge to socio-economic policy and aged care. Global estimates put a direct cost for treating and caring for people with dementia at $US604 billion, an estimate that is expected to increase markedly. According to recent global statistics, there are 35.6 million dementia sufferers, the number of which is predicted to double every 20 years, unless strategies are implemented to reduce this burden. Currently, there is no cure for AD; while current therapies may temporarily ameliorate symptoms, death usually occurs approximately 8 years after diagnosis. A greater understanding of AD pathophysiology is paramount, and attention is now being directed to the discovery of biomarkers that may not only facilitate pre-symptomatic diagnosis, but also provide an insight into aberrant biochemical pathways that may reveal potential therapeutic targets, including nutritional ones. AD pathogenesis develops over many years before clinical symptoms appear, providing the opportunity to develop therapy that could slow or stop disease progression well before any clinical manifestation develops.

Detection of prions in blood from patients with variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease

PubMed Central

Concha-Marambio, Luis; Pritzkow, Sandra; Moda, Fabio; Tagliavini, Fabrizio; Ironside, James W.; Schulz, Paul E.; Soto, Claudio

2017-01-01

Human prion diseases are infectious and invariably fatal neurodegenerative diseases. They include sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (sCJD), the most common form, and variant CJD (vCJD), which is caused by interspecies transmission of prions from cattle infected by bovine spongiform encephalopathy. Development of a biochemical assay for the sensitive, specific, early, and noninvasive detection of prions (PrPSc) in the blood of patients affected by prion disease is a top medical priority to increase the safety of the blood supply. vCJD has already been transmitted from human to human by blood transfusion, and the number of asymptomatic carriers of vCJD in the U.K. alone is estimated to be 1 in 2000 people. We used the protein misfolding cyclic amplification (PMCA) technique to analyze blood samples from 14 cases of vCJD and 153 controls, including patients affected by sCJD and other neurodegenerative or neurological disorders as well as healthy subjects. Our results showed that PrPSc could be detected with 100% sensitivity and specificity in blood samples from vCJD patients. Detection was possible in any of the blood fractions analyzed and could be done with as little as a few microliters of sample volume. The PrPSc concentration in blood was estimated to be ~0.5 pg/ml. Our findings suggest that PMCA may be useful for premortem noninvasive diagnosis of vCJD and to identify prion contamination of the blood supply. Further studies are needed to fully validate the technology. PMID:28003548

Urbanization and prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Southern Asia: A systematic analysis

PubMed Central

Cheema, Arsalan; Adeloye, Davies; Sidhu, Simrita; Sridhar, Devi; Chan, Kit Yee

2014-01-01

Background Diabetes mellitus is one of the diseases considered to be the main constituents of the global non–communicable disease (NCD) pandemic. Despite the large impact that NCDs are predicted to have, particularly in developing countries, estimates of disease burden are sparse and inconsistent. This systematic review transparently estimates prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Southern Asia, its association with urbanization and provides insight into the policy challenges facing the region. Methods The databases Medline and PubMed were searched for population–based studies providing estimates of diabetes prevalence in the Southern Asia region. Studies using WHO diagnostic criteria of fasting plasma glucose (FPG) ≥7.0mmol/L and/or 2h–plasma glucose (2hPG) ≥11.1mmol/L were included. Data from eligible studies was extracted into bubble graphs, and trend lines were applied to UNPD figures to estimate age–specific prevalence in the regional population. Estimates specific to sex, area of residency, and diagnostic method were compared and trends analysed. Results A total of 151 age–specific prevalence estimates were extracted from 39 studies. Diabetes prevalence was estimated to be 7.47% for 2005 and 7.60% for 2010. Prevalence was strongly associated with increased age, male gender and urban residency (P < 0.001). Conclusion Diabetes prevalence in Southern Asia is high and predicted to increase in the future as life expectancy rises and the region continues to urbanise. Countries in this region need to improve NCD surveillance and monitoring so policies can be informed with the best evidence. Programs for prevention need to be put in place, and health system capacity and access needs to be assessed and increased to deal with the predicted rise in NCD prevalence. PMID:24976963

An approach to model monitoring and surveillance data of wildlife diseases-exemplified by Classical Swine Fever in wild boar.

PubMed

Stahnke, N; Liebscher, V; Staubach, C; Ziller, M

2013-11-01

The analysis of epidemiological field data from monitoring and surveillance systems (MOSSs) in wild animals is of great importance in order to evaluate the performance of such systems. By parameter estimation from MOSS data, conclusions about disease dynamics in the observed population can be drawn. To strengthen the analysis, the implementation of a maximum likelihood estimation is the main aim of our work. The new approach presented here is based on an underlying simple SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model for a disease scenario in a wildlife population. The three corresponding classes are assumed to govern the intensities (number of animals in the classes) of non-homogeneous Poisson processes. A sampling rate was defined which describes the process of data collection (for MOSSs). Further, the performance of the diagnostics was implemented in the model by a diagnostic matrix containing misclassification rates. Both descriptions of these MOSS parts were included in the Poisson process approach. For simulation studies, the combined model demonstrates its ability to validly estimate epidemiological parameters, such as the basic reproduction rate R0. These parameters will help the evaluation of existing disease control systems. They will also enable comparison with other simulation models. The model has been tested with data from a Classical Swine Fever (CSF) outbreak in wild boars (Sus scrofa scrofa L.) from a region of Germany (1999-2002). The results show that the hunting strategy as a sole control tool is insufficient to decrease the threshold for susceptible animals to eradicate the disease, since the estimated R0 confirms an ongoing epidemic of CSF. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

HIV-1 disease progression during highly active antiretroviral therapy: an application using population-level data in British Columbia: 1996-2011.

PubMed

Nosyk, Bohdan; Min, Jeong; Lima, Viviane D; Yip, Benita; Hogg, Robert S; Montaner, Julio S G

2013-08-15

Accurately estimating rates of disease progression is of central importance in developing mathematical models used to project outcomes and guide resource allocation decisions. Our objective was to specify a multivariate regression model to estimate changes in disease progression among individuals on highly active antiretroviral treatment in British Columbia, Canada, 1996-2011. We used population-level data on disease progression and antiretroviral treatment utilization from the BC HIV Drug Treatment Program. Disease progression was captured using longitudinal CD4 and plasma viral load testing data, linked with data on antiretroviral treatment. The study outcome was categorized into (CD4 count ≥ 500, 500-350, 350-200, <200 cells/mm, and mortality). A 5-state continuous-time Markov model was used to estimate covariate-specific probabilities of CD4 progression, focusing on temporal changes during the study period. A total of 210,083 CD4 measurements among 7421 individuals with HIV/AIDS were included in the study. Results of the multivariate model suggested that current highly active antiretroviral treatment at baseline, lower baseline CD4 (<200 cells/mm), and extended durations of elevated plasma viral load were each associated with accelerated progression. Immunological improvement was accelerated significantly from 2004 onward, with 23% and 46% increases in the probability of CD4 improvement from the fourth CD4 stratum (CD4 < 200) in 2004-2008 and 2008-2011, respectively. Our results demonstrate the impact of innovations in antiretroviral treatment and treatment delivery at the population level. These results can be used to estimate a transition probability matrix flexible to changes in the observed mix of clients in different clinical stages and treatment regimens over time.

Status of vaccine research and development for Shigella.

PubMed

Mani, Sachin; Wierzba, Thomas; Walker, Richard I

2016-06-03

Shigella are gram-negative bacteria that cause severe diarrhea and dysentery. In 2013, Shigella infections caused an estimated 34,400 deaths in children less than five years old and, in 2010, an estimated 40,000 deaths in persons older than five years globally. New disease burden estimates from newly deployed molecular diagnostic assays with increased sensitivity suggest that Shigella-associated morbidity may be much greater than previous disease estimates from culture-based methods. Primary prevention of this disease should be based on universal provision of potable water and sanitation methods and improved personal and food hygiene. However, an efficacious and low-cost vaccine would complement and accelerate disease reduction while waiting for universal access to water, sanitation, and hygiene improvements. This review article provides a landscape of Shigella vaccine development efforts. No vaccine is yet available, but human and animal challenge-rechallenge trials with virulent Shigella as well as observational studies in Shigella-endemic areas have shown that the incidence of disease decreases following Shigella infection, pointing to biological feasibility of a vaccine. Immunity to Shigella appears to be strain-specific, so a vaccine that covers the most commonly detected strains (i.e., S. flexneri 2a, 3a, 6, and S. sonnei) or a vaccine using cross-species conserved antigens would likely be most effective. Vaccine development and testing may be accelerated by use of animal models, such as the guinea pig keratoconjunctivitis or murine pneumonia models. Because there is no correlate of protection, however, human studies will be necessary to evaluate vaccine efficacy prior to deployment. A diversity of Shigella vaccine constructs are under development, including live attenuated, formalin-killed whole-cell, glycoconjugate, subunit, and novel antigen vaccines (e.g., Type III secretion system and outer membrane proteins). Copyright © 2016 World Health Organization. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Cumulative radiation exposure and cancer risk estimation in children with heart disease.

PubMed

Johnson, Jason N; Hornik, Christoph P; Li, Jennifer S; Benjamin, Daniel K; Yoshizumi, Terry T; Reiman, Robert E; Frush, Donald P; Hill, Kevin D

2014-07-08

Children with heart disease are frequently exposed to imaging examinations that use ionizing radiation. Although radiation exposure is potentially carcinogenic, there are limited data on cumulative exposure and the associated cancer risk. We evaluated the cumulative effective dose of radiation from all radiation examinations to estimate the lifetime attributable risk of cancer in children with heart disease. Children ≤6 years of age who had previously undergone 1 of 7 primary surgical procedures for heart disease at a single institution between 2005 and 2010 were eligible for the study. Exposure to radiation-producing examinations was tabulated, and cumulative effective dose was calculated in millisieverts. These data were used to estimate lifetime attributable risk of cancer above baseline using the approach of the Committee on Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation VII. The cohort included 337 children exposed to 13 932 radiation examinations. Conventional radiographs represented 92% of examinations, whereas cardiac catheterization and computed tomography accounted for 81% of cumulative exposure. Overall median cumulative effective dose was 2.7 mSv (range, 0.1-76.9 mSv), and the associated lifetime attributable risk of cancer was 0.07% (range, 0.001%-6.5%). Median lifetime attributable risk of cancer ranged widely depending on surgical complexity (0.006%-1.6% for the 7 surgical cohorts) and was twice as high in females per unit exposure (0.04% versus 0.02% per 1-mSv effective dose for females versus males, respectively; P<0.001). Overall radiation exposures in children with heart disease are relatively low; however, select cohorts receive significant exposure. Cancer risk estimation highlights the need to limit radiation dose, particularly for high-exposure modalities. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Vitamin D Addendum to USDA Food and Nutrient Database for Dietary Studies 3.0: Database developed for estimating vitamin D intakes from food and water in What We Eat In America, NHANES 2005-2006

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Vitamin D has been identified as a nutrient of top public health concern because of its role in bone health and its link to other diseases and conditions. However, there are many knowledge gaps in the study of vitamin D, including lack of updated analytical data and accurate intake estimates from na...

Asthma and lung cancer, after accounting for co-occurring respiratory diseases and allergic conditions: a systematic review protocol.

PubMed

Denholm, Rachel; Crellin, Elizabeth; Arvind, Ashwini; Quint, Jennifer

2017-01-16

Asthma is one of the most frequently diagnosed respiratory diseases in the UK, and commonly co-occurs with other respiratory and allergic diseases, such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and atopic dermatitis. Previous studies have shown an increased risk of lung cancer related to asthma, but the evidence is mixed when accounting for co-occurring respiratory diseases and allergic conditions. A systematic review of published data that investigate the relationship between asthma and lung cancer, accounting for co-occurring respiratory and allergic diseases, will be conducted to investigate the independent association of asthma with lung cancer. A systematic review will be conducted, and include original reports of cohort, cross-sectional and case-control studies of the association of asthma with lung cancer after accounting for co-occurring respiratory diseases. Articles published up to June 2016 will be included, and their selection will follow the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. A standardised data extraction form will be developed and pretested, and descriptive analyses will be used to summarise the available literature. If appropriate, pooled effect estimates of the association between asthma and lung cancer, given adjustment for a specific co-occurring condition will be estimated using random effects models. Potential sources of heterogeneity and between study heterogeneity will also be investigated. The study will be a review of published data and does not require ethical approval. Results will be disseminated through a peer-reviewed publication. International Prospective Register for Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) number CRD42016043341. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Acute kidney injury and cardiovascular outcomes in acute severe hypertension.

PubMed

Szczech, Lynda A; Granger, Christopher B; Dasta, Joseph F; Amin, Alpesh; Peacock, W Frank; McCullough, Peter A; Devlin, John W; Weir, Matthew R; Katz, Jason N; Anderson, Frederick A; Wyman, Allison; Varon, Joseph

2010-05-25

Little is known about the association of kidney dysfunction and outcome in acute severe hypertension. This study aimed to measure the association between baseline chronic kidney disease (estimated glomerular filtration rate), acute kidney injury (AKI, decrease in estimated glomerular filtration rate > or =25% from baseline) and outcome in patients hospitalized with acute severe hypertension. The Studying the Treatment of Acute Hypertension (STAT) registry enrolled patients with acute severe hypertension, defined as > or =1 blood pressure measurement >180 mm Hg systolic and/or >110 mm Hg diastolic and treated with intravenous antihypertensive therapy. Data were compared across groups categorized by admission estimated glomerular filtration rate and AKI during admission. On admission, 79% of the cohort (n=1566) had at least mild chronic kidney disease (estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min in 46%, <30 mL/min in 22%). Chronic kidney disease patients were more likely to develop heart failure (P<0.0001), non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (P=0.003), and AKI (P<0.007). AKI patients were at greater risk of heart failure and cardiac arrest (P< or =0.0001 for both). Subjects with AKI experienced higher mortality at 90 days (P=0.003). Any acute loss of estimated glomerular filtration rate during hospitalization was independently associated with an increased risk of death (odds ratio, 1.05; P=0.03 per 10-mL/min decline). Other independent predictors of mortality included increasing age (P<0.0001), male gender (P=0.016), white versus black race (P=0.003), and worse baseline kidney function (P=0.003). Chronic kidney disease is a common comorbidity among patients admitted with acute severe hypertension, and AKI is a frequent form of acute target organ dysfunction, particularly in those with baseline chronic kidney disease. Any degree of AKI is associated with a greater risk of morbidity and mortality.

The cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination of healthy adults 50-64 years of age.

PubMed

Turner, D A; Wailoo, A J; Cooper, N J; Sutton, A J; Abrams, K R; Nicholson, K G

2006-02-13

Influenza can cause significant morbidity and mortality. Influenza vaccination is an effective and safe strategy in the prevention of influenza. Currently the National Health Service (NHS) vaccinates 'at-risk' individuals only. This definition includes everyone over 65 years of age but excludes individuals 50-64 years of age unless they have an additional risk factor, such as underlying heart disease or lung disease. In order to examine the cost-effectiveness of an extension of the vaccination policy to include this age group we constructed an economic model to estimate the costs and benefits of vaccination from both a health service and a societal perspective. Data to populate the model was obtained from the literature and the outcome measure used was the quality adjusted life year (QALY). Influenza vaccination prevented an estimated 4508 cases (95% CI: 2431-7606) per 100,000 vaccinees per influenza season for a net cost to the NHS of pound653,221 (95% CI: 354,575-1,072,257). The net cost increased to pound1,139,069 (95% CI 27,052-2,030,473) when non-NHS costs were included and the estimated cost-per-QALY were pound6174 and pound10,766 for NHS and all costs respectively. Extension of the current immunisation policy has the potential to generate a significant health benefit at a comparatively low cost.

National Economic Burden Associated with Management of Periodontitis in Malaysia.

PubMed

Mohd Dom, Tuti Ningseh; Ayob, Rasidah; Abd Muttalib, Khairiyah; Aljunid, Syed Mohamed

2016-01-01

Objectives. The aim of this study is to estimate the economic burden associated with the management of periodontitis in Malaysia from the societal perspective. Methods. We estimated the economic burden of periodontitis by combining the disease prevalence with its treatment costs. We estimated treatment costs (with 2012 value of Malaysian Ringgit) using the cost-of-illness approach and included both direct and indirect costs. We used the National Oral Health Survey for Adults (2010) data to estimate the prevalence of periodontitis and 2010 national census data to estimate the adult population at risk for periodontitis. Results. The economic burden of managing all cases of periodontitis at the national level from the societal perspective was approximately MYR 32.5 billion, accounting for 3.83% of the 2012 Gross Domestic Product of the country. It would cost the nation MYR 18.3 billion to treat patients with moderate periodontitis and MYR 13.7 billion to treat patients with severe periodontitis. Conclusion. The economic burden of periodontitis in Malaysia is substantial and comparable with that of other chronic diseases in the country. This is attributable to its high prevalence and high cost of treatment. Judicious application of promotive, preventive, and curative approaches to periodontitis management is decidedly warranted.

Periodontal Disease, Tooth Loss, and Cancer Risk.

PubMed

Michaud, Dominique S; Fu, Zhuxuan; Shi, Jian; Chung, Mei

2017-01-01

Periodontal disease, which includes gingivitis and periodontitis, is highly prevalent in adults and disease severity increases with age. The relationship between periodontal disease and oral cancer has been examined for several decades, but there is increasing interest in the link between periodontal disease and overall cancer risk, with systemic inflammation serving as the main focus for biological plausibility. Numerous case-control studies have addressed the role of oral health in head and neck cancer, and several cohort studies have examined associations with other types of cancers over the past decade. For this review, we included studies that were identified from either 11 published reviews on this topic or an updated literature search on PubMed (between 2011 and July 2016). A total of 50 studies from 46 publications were included in this review. Meta-analyses were conducted on cohort and case-control studies separately when at least 4 studies could be included to determine summary estimates of the risk of cancer in relation to 1) periodontal disease or 2) tooth number (a surrogate marker of periodontal disease) with adjustment for smoking. Existing data provide support for a positive association between periodontal disease and risk of oral, lung, and pancreatic cancers; however, additional prospective studies are needed to better inform on the strength of these associations and to determine whether other cancers are associated with periodontal disease. Future studies should include sufficiently large sample sizes, improved measurements for periodontal disease, and thorough adjustment for smoking and other risk factors. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Accounting for multimorbidity can affect the estimation of the Burden of Disease: a comparison of approaches.

PubMed

Hilderink, Henk B M; Plasmans, Marjanne H D; Snijders, Bianca E P; Boshuizen, Hendriek C; Poos, M J J C René; van Gool, Coen H

2016-01-01

Various Burden of Disease (BoD) studies do not account for multimorbidity in their BoD estimates. Ignoring multimorbidity can lead to inaccuracies in BoD estimations, particularly in ageing populations that include large proportions of persons with two or more health conditions. The objective of this study is to improve BoD estimates for the Netherlands by accounting for multimorbidity. For this purpose, we analyzed different methods for 1) estimating the prevalence of multimorbidity and 2) deriving Disability Weights (DWs) for multimorbidity by using existing data on single health conditions. We included 25 health conditions from the Dutch Burden of Disease study that have a high rate of prevalence and that make a large contribution to the total number of Years Lived with a Disability (YLD). First, we analyzed four methods for estimating the prevalence of multimorbid conditions (i.e. independent, independent age- and sex-specific, dependent, and dependent sex- and age-specific). Secondly, we analyzed three methods for calculating the Combined Disability Weights (CDWs) associated with multimorbid conditions (i.e. additive, multiplicative and maximum limit). A combination of these two approaches was used to recalculate the number of YLDs, which is a component of the Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALY). This study shows that the YLD estimates for 25 health conditions calculated using the multiplicative method for Combined Disability Weights are 5 % lower, and 14 % lower when using the maximum limit method, than when calculated using the additive method. Adjusting for sex- and age-specific dependent co-occurrence of health conditions reduces the number of YLDs by 10 % for the multiplicative method and by 26 % for the maximum limit method. The adjustment is higher for health conditions with a higher prevalence in old age, like heart failure (up to 43 %) and coronary heart diseases (up to 33 %). Health conditions with a high prevalence in middle age, such as anxiety disorders, have a moderate adjustment (up to 13 %). We conclude that BoD calculations that do not account for multimorbidity can result in an overestimation of the actual BoD. This may affect public health policy strategies that focus on single health conditions if the underlying cost-effectiveness analysis overestimates the intended effects. The methodology used in this study could be further refined to provide greater insight into co-occurrence and the possible consequences of multimorbid conditions in terms of disability for particular combinations of health conditions.

Contemporary group estimates adjusted for climatic effects provide a finer definition of the unknown environmental challenges experienced by growing pigs.

PubMed

Guy, S Z Y; Li, L; Thomson, P C; Hermesch, S

2017-12-01

Environmental descriptors derived from mean performances of contemporary groups (CGs) are assumed to capture any known and unknown environmental challenges. The objective of this paper was to obtain a finer definition of the unknown challenges, by adjusting CG estimates for the known climatic effects of monthly maximum air temperature (MaxT), minimum air temperature (MinT) and monthly rainfall (Rain). As the unknown component could include infection challenges, these refined descriptors may help to better model varying responses of sire progeny to environmental infection challenges for the definition of disease resilience. Data were recorded from 1999 to 2013 at a piggery in south-east Queensland, Australia (n = 31,230). Firstly, CG estimates of average daily gain (ADG) and backfat (BF) were adjusted for MaxT, MinT and Rain, which were fitted as splines. In the models used to derive CG estimates for ADG, MaxT and MinT were significant variables. The models that contained these significant climatic variables had CG estimates with a lower variance compared to models without significant climatic variables. Variance component estimates were similar across all models, suggesting that these significant climatic variables accounted for some known environmental variation captured in CG estimates. No climatic variables were significant in the models used to derive the CG estimates for BF. These CG estimates were used to categorize environments. There was no observable sire by environment interaction (Sire×E) for ADG when using the environmental descriptors based on CG estimates on BF. For the environmental descriptors based on CG estimates of ADG, there was significant Sire×E only when MinT was included in the model (p = .01). Therefore, this new definition of the environment, preadjusted by MinT, increased the ability to detect Sire×E. While the unknown challenges captured in refined CG estimates need verification for infection challenges, this may provide a practical approach for the genetic improvement of disease resilience. © 2017 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Predicting Quarantine Failure Rates

PubMed Central

2004-01-01

Preemptive quarantine through contact-tracing effectively controls emerging infectious diseases. Occasionally this quarantine fails, however, and infected persons are released. The probability of quarantine failure is typically estimated from disease-specific data. Here a simple, exact estimate of the failure rate is derived that does not depend on disease-specific parameters. This estimate is universally applicable to all infectious diseases. PMID:15109418

Parkinson's Disease and Sleep/Wake Disturbances

PubMed Central

Swick, Todd J.

2012-01-01

Parkinson's disease (PD) has traditionally been characterized by its cardinal motor symptoms of bradykinesia, rigidity, resting tremor, and postural instability. However, PD is increasingly being recognized as a multidimensional disease associated with myriad nonmotor symptoms including autonomic dysfunction, mood disorders, cognitive impairment, pain, gastrointestinal disturbance, impaired olfaction, psychosis, and sleep disorders. Sleep disturbances, which include sleep fragmentation, daytime somnolence, sleep-disordered breathing, restless legs syndrome (RLS), nightmares, and rapid eye movement (REM) sleep behavior disorder (RBD), are estimated to occur in 60% to 98% of patients with PD. For years nonmotor symptoms received little attention from clinicians and researchers, but now these symptoms are known to be significant predictors of morbidity in determining quality of life, costs of disease, and rates of institutionalization. A discussion of the clinical aspects, pathophysiology, evaluation techniques, and treatment options for the sleep disorders that are encountered with PD is presented. PMID:23326757

Time series models of environmental exposures: Good predictions or good understanding.

PubMed

Barnett, Adrian G; Stephen, Dimity; Huang, Cunrui; Wolkewitz, Martin

2017-04-01

Time series data are popular in environmental epidemiology as they make use of the natural experiment of how changes in exposure over time might impact on disease. Many published time series papers have used parameter-heavy models that fully explained the second order patterns in disease to give residuals that have no short-term autocorrelation or seasonality. This is often achieved by including predictors of past disease counts (autoregression) or seasonal splines with many degrees of freedom. These approaches give great residuals, but add little to our understanding of cause and effect. We argue that modelling approaches should rely more on good epidemiology and less on statistical tests. This includes thinking about causal pathways, making potential confounders explicit, fitting a limited number of models, and not over-fitting at the cost of under-estimating the true association between exposure and disease. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Toxocariasis in North America: a systematic review.

PubMed

Lee, Rachel M; Moore, Laura B; Bottazzi, Maria Elena; Hotez, Peter J

2014-08-01

Toxocariasis is an important neglected tropical disease that can manifest as visceral or ocular larva migrans, or covert toxocariasis. All three forms pose a public health problem and cause significant morbidity in areas of high prevalence. To determine the burden of toxocariasis in North America, we conducted a systematic review of the literature following PRISMA guidelines. We found 18 articles with original prevalence, incidence, or case data for toxocariasis. Prevalence estimates ranged from 0.6% in a Canadian Inuit community to 30.8% in Mexican children with asthma. Commonly cited risk factors included: African-American race, poverty, male sex, and pet ownership or environmental contamination by animal feces. Increased prevalence of Toxocara spp. infection was linked in a group of case control studies conducted in Mexico to several high risk groups including waste pickers, asthmatic children, and inpatient psychiatry patients. Further research is needed to determine the true current burden of toxocariasis in North America; however the prevalence estimates gathered in this review suggest that the burden of disease is significant.

Toxocariasis in North America: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Bottazzi, Maria Elena; Hotez, Peter J.

2014-01-01

Toxocariasis is an important neglected tropical disease that can manifest as visceral or ocular larva migrans, or covert toxocariasis. All three forms pose a public health problem and cause significant morbidity in areas of high prevalence. To determine the burden of toxocariasis in North America, we conducted a systematic review of the literature following PRISMA guidelines. We found 18 articles with original prevalence, incidence, or case data for toxocariasis. Prevalence estimates ranged from 0.6% in a Canadian Inuit community to 30.8% in Mexican children with asthma. Commonly cited risk factors included: African-American race, poverty, male sex, and pet ownership or environmental contamination by animal feces. Increased prevalence of Toxocara spp. infection was linked in a group of case control studies conducted in Mexico to several high risk groups including waste pickers, asthmatic children, and inpatient psychiatry patients. Further research is needed to determine the true current burden of toxocariasis in North America; however the prevalence estimates gathered in this review suggest that the burden of disease is significant. PMID:25166906

Estimated Incidence of Antimicrobial Drug–Resistant Nontyphoidal Salmonella Infections, United States, 2004–2012

PubMed Central

Gu, Weidong; Mahon, Barbara E.; Judd, Michael; Folster, Jason; Griffin, Patricia M.; Hoekstra, Robert M.

2017-01-01

Salmonella infections are a major cause of illness in the United States. The antimicrobial agents used to treat severe infections include ceftriaxone, ciprofloxacin, and ampicillin. Antimicrobial drug resistance has been associated with adverse clinical outcomes. To estimate the incidence of resistant culture-confirmed nontyphoidal Salmonella infections, we used Bayesian hierarchical models of 2004–2012 data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National Antimicrobial Resistance Monitoring System and Laboratory-based Enteric Disease Surveillance. We based 3 mutually exclusive resistance categories on susceptibility testing: ceftriaxone and ampicillin resistant, ciprofloxacin nonsusceptible but ceftriaxone susceptible, and ampicillin resistant but ceftriaxone and ciprofloxacin susceptible. We estimated the overall incidence of resistant infections as 1.07/100,000 person-years for ampicillin-only resistance, 0.51/100,000 person-years for ceftriaxone and ampicillin resistance, and 0.35/100,000 person-years for ciprofloxacin nonsusceptibility, or ≈6,200 resistant culture-confirmed infections annually. These national estimates help define the magnitude of the resistance problem so that control measures can be appropriately targeted. PMID:27983506

Exposing extinction risk analysis to pathogens: Is disease just another form of density dependence?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerber, L.R.; McCallum, H.; Lafferty, K.D.; Sabo, J.L.; Dobson, A.

2005-01-01

In the United States and several other countries, the development of population viability analyses (PVA) is a legal requirement of any species survival plan developed for threatened and endangered species. Despite the importance of pathogens in natural populations, little attention has been given to host-pathogen dynamics in PVA. To study the effect of infectious pathogens on extinction risk estimates generated from PVA, we review and synthesize the relevance of host-pathogen dynamics in analyses of extinction risk. We then develop a stochastic, density-dependent host-parasite model to investigate the effects of disease on the persistence of endangered populations. We show that this model converges on a Ricker model of density dependence under a suite of limiting assumptions, including a high probability that epidemics will arrive and occur. Using this modeling framework, we then quantify: (1) dynamic differences between time series generated by disease and Ricker processes with the same parameters; (2) observed probabilities of quasi-extinction for populations exposed to disease or self-limitation; and (3) bias in probabilities of quasi-extinction estimated by density-independent PVAs when populations experience either form of density dependence. Our results suggest two generalities about the relationships among disease, PVA, and the management of endangered species. First, disease more strongly increases variability in host abundance and, thus, the probability of quasi-extinction, than does self-limitation. This result stems from the fact that the effects and the probability of occurrence of disease are both density dependent. Second, estimates of quasi-extinction are more often overly optimistic for populations experiencing disease than for those subject to self-limitation. Thus, although the results of density-independent PVAs may be relatively robust to some particular assumptions about density dependence, they are less robust when endangered populations are known to be susceptible to disease. If potential management actions involve manipulating pathogens, then it may be useful to model disease explicitly. ?? 2005 by the Ecological Society of America.

Cost of best-practice primary care management of chronic disease in a remote Aboriginal community.

PubMed

Gador-Whyte, Andrew P; Wakerman, John; Campbell, David; Lenthall, Sue; Struber, Janet; Hope, Alex; Watson, Colin

2014-06-16

To estimate the cost of completing all chronic care tasks recommended by the Central Australian Rural Practitioners Association Standard Treatment Manual (CARPA STM) for patients with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease (CKD). The study was conducted at a health service in a remote Central Australian Aboriginal community between July 2010 and May 2011. The chronic care tasks required were ascertained from the CARPA STM. The clinic database was reviewed for data on disease prevalence and adherence to CARPA STM guidelines. Recommended tasks were observed in a time-and-motion study of clinicians' work. Clinicians were interviewed about systematic management and its barriers. Expenditure records were analysed for salary and administrative costs. Diabetes and CKD prevalence; time spent on chronic disease care tasks; completion of tasks recommended by the CARPA STM; barriers to systematic care identified by clinicians; and estimated costs of optimal primary care management of all residents with diabetes or CKD. Projected annual costs of best-practice care for diabetes and CKD for this community of 542 people were $900 792, of which $645 313 would be met directly by the local primary care service. Estimated actual expenditure for these conditions in 2009-10 was $446 585, giving a projected funding gap of $198 728 per annum, or $1733 per patient. High staff turnover, acute care workload and low health literacy also hindered optimal chronic disease care. Barriers to optimal care included inadequate funding and workforce issues. Reduction of avoidable hospital admissions and overall costs necessitates adequate funding of primary care of chronic disease in remote communities.

Advances in clinical study of curcumin.

PubMed

Yang, Chunfen; Su, Xun; Liu, Anchang; Zhang, Lin; Yu, Aihua; Xi, Yanwei; Zhai, Guangxi

2013-01-01

Curcumin has been estimated as a potential agent for many diseases and attracted great attention owing to its various pharmacological activities, including anti-cancer, and anti-inflammatory. Now curcumin is being applied to a number of patients with breast cancer, rheumatoid arthritis, Alzheimer's disease, colorectal cancer, psoriatic, etc. Several clinical trials have stated that curcumin is safe enough and effective. The objective of this article was to summarize the clinical studies of curcumin, and give a reference for future studies.

Global, Regional, and National Prevalence, Incidence, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years for Oral Conditions for 195 Countries, 1990-2015: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors.

PubMed

Kassebaum, N J; Smith, A G C; Bernabé, E; Fleming, T D; Reynolds, A E; Vos, T; Murray, C J L; Marcenes, W

2017-04-01

The Global Burden of Disease 2015 study aims to use all available data of sufficient quality to generate reliable and valid prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) estimates of oral conditions for the period of 1990 to 2015. Since death as a direct result of oral diseases is rare, DALY estimates were based on years lived with disability, which are estimated only on those persons with unmet need for dental care. We used our data to assess progress toward the Federation Dental International, World Health Organization, and International Association for Dental Research's oral health goals of reducing the level of oral diseases and minimizing their impact by 2020. Oral health has not improved in the last 25 y, and oral conditions remained a major public health challenge all over the world in 2015. Due to demographic changes, including population growth and aging, the cumulative burden of oral conditions dramatically increased between 1990 and 2015. The number of people with untreated oral conditions rose from 2.5 billion in 1990 to 3.5 billion in 2015, with a 64% increase in DALYs due to oral conditions throughout the world. Clearly, oral diseases are highly prevalent in the globe, posing a very serious public health challenge to policy makers. Greater efforts and potentially different approaches are needed if the oral health goal of reducing the level of oral diseases and minimizing their impact is to be achieved by 2020. Despite some challenges with current measurement methodologies for oral diseases, measurable specific oral health goals should be developed to advance global public health.

Alcohol consumption as a risk factor for tuberculosis: meta-analyses and burden of disease

PubMed Central

Shield, Kevin D.; Roerecke, Michael; Samokhvalov, Andriy V.; Lönnroth, Knut; Rehm, Jürgen

2017-01-01

Meta-analyses of alcohol use, alcohol dosage and alcohol-related problems as risk factors for tuberculosis incidence were undertaken. The global alcohol-attributable tuberculosis burden of disease was also re-estimated. Systematic searches were conducted, reference lists were reviewed and expert consultations were held to identify studies. Cohort and case-control studies were included if there were no temporal violations of exposure and outcome. Risk relations (RRs) were pooled by using categorical and dose-response meta-analyses. The alcohol-attributable tuberculosis burden of disease was estimated by using alcohol-attributable fractions. 36 of 1108 studies were included. RRs for alcohol use and alcohol-related problems were 1.35 (95% CI 1.09–1.68; I2: 83%) and 3.33 (95% CI 2.14–5.19; 87%), respectively. Concerning alcohol dosage, tuberculosis risk rose as ethanol intake increased, with evidence of a threshold effect. Alcohol consumption caused 22.02 incident cases (95% CI 19.70–40.77) and 2.35 deaths (95% CI 2.05–4.79) per 100 000 people from tuberculosis in 2014. Alcohol-attributable tuberculosis incidence increased between 2000 and 2014 in most high tuberculosis burden countries, whereas mortality decreased. Alcohol consumption was associated with an increased risk of tuberculosis in all meta-analyses. It was consequently a major contributor to the tuberculosis burden of disease. PMID:28705945

The clinical and nonclinical values of nonexercise estimation of cardiovascular endurance in young asymptomatic individuals.

PubMed

Alomari, Mahmoud A; Shqair, Dana M; Khabour, Omar F; Alawneh, Khaldoon; Nazzal, Mahmoud I; Keewan, Esraa F

2012-01-01

Exercise testing is associated with barriers prevent using cardiovascular (CV) endurance (CVE) measure frequently. A recent nonexercise model (NM) is alleged to estimate CVE without exercise. This study examined CVE relationships, using the NM model, with measures of obesity, physical fitness (PF), blood glucose and lipid, and circulation in 188 asymptomatic young (18-40 years) adults. Estimated CVE correlated favorably with measures of PF (r = 0.4 - 0.5) including handgrip strength, distance in 6 munities walking test, and shoulder press, and leg extension strengths, obesity (r = 0.2 - 0.7) including % body fat, body water content, fat mass, muscle mass, BMI, waist and hip circumferences and waist/hip ratio, and circulation (r = 0.2 - 0.3) including blood pressures, blood flow, vascular resistance, and blood (r = 0.2 - 0.5) profile including glucose, total cholesterol, LDL-C, HDL-C, and triglycerides. Additionally, differences (P < 0.05) in examined measures were found between the high, average, and low estimated CVE groups. Obviously the majority of these measures are CV disease risk factors and metabolic syndrome components. These results enhance the NM scientific value, and thus, can be further used in clinical and nonclinical settings.

Education and the risk for Alzheimer's disease: sex makes a difference. EURODEM pooled analyses. EURODEM Incidence Research Group.

PubMed

Letenneur, L; Launer, L J; Andersen, K; Dewey, M E; Ott, A; Copeland, J R; Dartigues, J F; Kragh-Sorensen, P; Baldereschi, M; Brayne, C; Lobo, A; Martinez-Lage, J M; Stijnen, T; Hofman, A

2000-06-01

The hypothesis that a low educational level increases the risk for Alzheimer's disease remains controversial. The authors studied the association of years of schooling with the risk for incident dementia and Alzheimer's disease by using pooled data from four European population-based follow-up studies. Dementia cases were identified in a two-stage procedure that included a detailed diagnostic assessment of screen-positive subjects. Dementia and Alzheimer's disease were diagnosed by using international research criteria. Educational level was categorized by years of schooling as low (< or =7), middle (8-11), or high (> or =12). Relative risks (95% confidence intervals) were estimated by using Poisson regression, adjusting for age, sex, study center, smoking status, and self-reported myocardial infarction and stroke. There were 493 (328) incident cases of dementia (Alzheimer's disease) and 28,061 (27,839) person-years of follow-up. Compared with women with a high level of education, those with low and middle levels of education had 4.3 (95% confidence interval: 1.5, 11.9) and 2.6 (95% confidence interval: 1.0, 7.1) times increased risks, respectively, for Alzheimer's disease. The risk estimates for men were close to 1.0. Finding an association of education with Alzheimer's disease for women only raises the possibility that unmeasured confounding explains the previously reported increased risk for Alzheimer's disease for persons with low levels of education.

A Model Framework to Estimate Impact and Cost of Genetics-Based Sterile Insect Methods for Dengue Vector Control

PubMed Central

Alphey, Nina; Alphey, Luke; Bonsall, Michael B.

2011-01-01

Vector-borne diseases impose enormous health and economic burdens and additional methods to control vector populations are clearly needed. The Sterile Insect Technique (SIT) has been successful against agricultural pests, but is not in large-scale use for suppressing or eliminating mosquito populations. Genetic RIDL technology (Release of Insects carrying a Dominant Lethal) is a proposed modification that involves releasing insects that are homozygous for a repressible dominant lethal genetic construct rather than being sterilized by irradiation, and could potentially overcome some technical difficulties with the conventional SIT technology. Using the arboviral disease dengue as an example, we combine vector population dynamics and epidemiological models to explore the effect of a program of RIDL releases on disease transmission. We use these to derive a preliminary estimate of the potential cost-effectiveness of vector control by applying estimates of the costs of SIT. We predict that this genetic control strategy could eliminate dengue rapidly from a human community, and at lower expense (approximately US$ 2∼30 per case averted) than the direct and indirect costs of disease (mean US$ 86–190 per case of dengue). The theoretical framework has wider potential use; by appropriately adapting or replacing each component of the framework (entomological, epidemiological, vector control bio-economics and health economics), it could be applied to other vector-borne diseases or vector control strategies and extended to include other health interventions. PMID:21998654

Outside the Continental United States International Travel and Contagion Impact Quick Look Tool

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Corley, Courtney D.; Lancaster, Mary J.; Brigantic, Robert T.

2012-11-09

ABSTRACT This paper describes a tool that will allow public health analysts to estimate infectious disease risk at the country level as a function of different international transportation modes. The prototype focuses on a cholera epidemic originating within Latin America or the Caribbean, but it can be expanded to consider other pathogens as well. This effort leverages previous work in collaboration with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to develop the International Travel to Community Impact (IT-CI) model, which analyzes and assesses potential international disease outbreaks then estimates the associated impacts to U.S. communities and the nation as amore » whole and orient it for use Outside the Continental United States (OCONUS). For brevity, we refer to this refined model as OIT-CI. First, we developed an operationalized meta-population spatial cholera model for Latin America and the Caribbean at the secondary administrative-level boundary. Secondly, we developed a robust function of human airline critical to approximating mixing patterns in the meta- population model. In the prototype version currently presented here, OIT-CI models a cholera epidemic originating in a Latin American or Caribbean country and spreading via airline transportation routes. Disease spread is modeled at the country level using a patch model with a connectivity function based on demographic, geospatial, and human transportation data. We have also identified data to estimate the water and health-related infrastructure capabilities of each country to include this potential impact on disease transmission.« less

NASA Models of Space Radiation Induced Cancer, Circulatory Disease, and Central Nervous System Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Chappell, Lori J.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.

2013-01-01

The risks of late effects from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE) are potentially a limitation to long-term space travel. The late effects of highest concern have significant lethality including cancer, effects to the central nervous system (CNS), and circulatory diseases (CD). For cancer and CD the use of age and gender specific models with uncertainty assessments based on human epidemiology data for low LET radiation combined with relative biological effectiveness factors (RBEs) and dose- and dose-rate reduction effectiveness factors (DDREF) to extrapolate these results to space radiation exposures is considered the current "state-of-the-art". The revised NASA Space Risk Model (NSRM-2014) is based on recent radio-epidemiology data for cancer and CD, however a key feature of the NSRM-2014 is the formulation of particle fluence and track structure based radiation quality factors for solid cancer and leukemia risk estimates, which are distinct from the ICRP quality factors, and shown to lead to smaller uncertainties in risk estimates. Many persons exposed to radiation on earth as well as astronauts are life-time never-smokers, which is estimated to significantly modify radiation cancer and CD risk estimates. A key feature of the NASA radiation protection model is the classification of radiation workers by smoking history in setting dose limits. Possible qualitative differences between GCR and low LET radiation increase uncertainties and are not included in previous risk estimates. Two important qualitative differences are emerging from research studies. The first is the increased lethality of tumors observed in animal models compared to low LET radiation or background tumors. The second are Non- Targeted Effects (NTE), which include bystander effects and genomic instability, which has been observed in cell and animal models of cancer risks. NTE's could lead to significant changes in RBE and DDREF estimates for GCR particles, and the potential effectiveness of radiation mitigator's. The NSRM- 2014 approaches to model radiation quality dependent lethality and NTE's will be described. CNS effects include both early changes that may occur during long space missions and late effects such as Alzheimer's disease (AD). AD effects 50% of the population above age 80-yr, is a degenerative disease that worsens with time after initial onset leading to death, and has no known cure. AD is difficult to detect at early stages and the small number of low LET epidemiology studies undertaken have not identified an association with low dose radiation. However experimental studies in mice suggest GCR may lead to early onset AD. We discuss modeling approaches to consider mechanisms whereby radiation would lead to earlier onset of occurrence of AD. Biomarkers of AD include amyloid beta (A(Beta)) plaques, and neurofibrillary tangles (NFT) made up of aggregates of the hyperphosphorylated form of the micro-tubule associated, tau protein. Related markers include synaptic degeneration, dentritic spine loss, and neuronal cell loss through apoptosis. Radiation may affect these processes by causing oxidative stress, aberrant signaling following DNA damage, and chronic neuroinflammation. Cell types to be considered in multi-scale models are neurons, astrocytes, and microglia. We developed biochemical and cell kinetics models of DNA damage signaling related to glycogen synthase kinase-3(Beta) (GSK3(Beta)) and neuroinflammation, and considered multi-scale modeling approaches to develop computer simulations of cell interactions and their relationships to A(Beta) plaques and NFTs. Comparison of model results to experimental data for the age specific development of A(Beta) plaques in transgenic mice will be discussed.

Association Between Dietary Factors and Mortality From Heart Disease, Stroke, and Type 2 Diabetes in the United States.

PubMed

Micha, Renata; Peñalvo, Jose L; Cudhea, Frederick; Imamura, Fumiaki; Rehm, Colin D; Mozaffarian, Dariush

2017-03-07

In the United States, national associations of individual dietary factors with specific cardiometabolic diseases are not well established. To estimate associations of intake of 10 specific dietary factors with mortality due to heart disease, stroke, and type 2 diabetes (cardiometabolic mortality) among US adults. A comparative risk assessment model incorporated data and corresponding uncertainty on population demographics and dietary habits from National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (1999-2002: n = 8104; 2009-2012: n = 8516); estimated associations of diet and disease from meta-analyses of prospective studies and clinical trials with validity analyses to assess potential bias; and estimated disease-specific national mortality from the National Center for Health Statistics. Consumption of 10 foods/nutrients associated with cardiometabolic diseases: fruits, vegetables, nuts/seeds, whole grains, unprocessed red meats, processed meats, sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), polyunsaturated fats, seafood omega-3 fats, and sodium. Estimated absolute and percentage mortality due to heart disease, stroke, and type 2 diabetes in 2012. Disease-specific and demographic-specific (age, sex, race, and education) mortality and trends between 2002 and 2012 were also evaluated. In 2012, 702 308 cardiometabolic deaths occurred in US adults, including 506 100 from heart disease (371 266 coronary heart disease, 35 019 hypertensive heart disease, and 99 815 other cardiovascular disease), 128 294 from stroke (16 125 ischemic, 32 591 hemorrhagic, and 79 578 other), and 67 914 from type 2 diabetes. Of these, an estimated 318 656 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 306 064-329 755; 45.4%) cardiometabolic deaths per year were associated with suboptimal intakes-48.6% (95% UI, 46.2%-50.9%) of cardiometabolic deaths in men and 41.8% (95% UI, 39.3%-44.2%) in women; 64.2% (95% UI, 60.6%-67.9%) at younger ages (25-34 years) and 35.7% (95% UI, 33.1%-38.1%) at older ages (≥75 years); 53.1% (95% UI, 51.6%-54.8%) among blacks, 50.0% (95% UI, 48.2%-51.8%) among Hispanics, and 42.8% (95% UI, 40.9%-44.5%) among whites; and 46.8% (95% UI, 44.9%-48.7%) among lower-, 45.7% (95% UI, 44.2%-47.4%) among medium-, and 39.1% (95% UI, 37.2%-41.2%) among higher-educated individuals. The largest numbers of estimated diet-related cardiometabolic deaths were related to high sodium (66 508 deaths in 2012; 9.5% of all cardiometabolic deaths), low nuts/seeds (59 374; 8.5%), high processed meats (57 766; 8.2%), low seafood omega-3 fats (54 626; 7.8%), low vegetables (53 410; 7.6%), low fruits (52 547; 7.5%), and high SSBs (51 694; 7.4%). Between 2002 and 2012, population-adjusted US cardiometabolic deaths per year decreased by 26.5%. The greatest decline was associated with insufficient polyunsaturated fats (-20.8% relative change [95% UI, -18.5% to -22.8%]), nuts/seeds (-18.0% [95% UI, -14.6% to -21.0%]), and excess SSBs (-14.5% [95% UI, -12.0% to -16.9%]). The greatest increase was associated with unprocessed red meats (+14.4% [95% UI, 9.1%-19.5%]). Dietary factors were estimated to be associated with a substantial proportion of deaths from heart disease, stroke, and type 2 diabetes. These results should help identify priorities, guide public health planning, and inform strategies to alter dietary habits and improve health.

An Evidence-Based Approach to the Treatment of Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease.

PubMed

Patti, Marco G

2016-01-01

Gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) is prevalent worldwide, particularly in developed countries. It is estimated that the prevalence of GERD in the United States is approximately 20% and that it is increasing because of the epidemic of obesity. To review the pathophysiology, clinical presentation, diagnostic evaluation, and treatment of GERD. A search of PubMed was conducted for the years spanning 1985 to 2015 and included the following terms: heartburn, regurgitation, dysphagia, gastroesophageal reflux disease, cough, aspiration, laryngitis, GERD, GORD, endoscopy, manometry, pH monitoring, proton pump inhibitors, open fundoplication, and laparoscopic fundoplication. Only articles in English were included. Lifestyle modifications, proton pump inhibitors, and laparoscopic fundoplication are proven treatment modalities for GERD. Endoscopic procedures have not been proven as effective. A Roux-en-Y gastric bypass is the procedure of choice when GERD and morbid obesity coexist. Gastroesophageal reflux disease is a highly prevalent disease. Once the diagnosis has been established, the best results are obtained by a multidisciplinary team with the goal of individualizing treatment for patients.

Evaluation of sliding baseline methods for spatial estimation for cluster detection in the biosurveillance system

PubMed Central

Xing, Jian; Burkom, Howard; Moniz, Linda; Edgerton, James; Leuze, Michael; Tokars, Jerome

2009-01-01

Background The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC's) BioSense system provides near-real time situational awareness for public health monitoring through analysis of electronic health data. Determination of anomalous spatial and temporal disease clusters is a crucial part of the daily disease monitoring task. Our study focused on finding useful anomalies at manageable alert rates according to available BioSense data history. Methods The study dataset included more than 3 years of daily counts of military outpatient clinic visits for respiratory and rash syndrome groupings. We applied four spatial estimation methods in implementations of space-time scan statistics cross-checked in Matlab and C. We compared the utility of these methods according to the resultant background cluster rate (a false alarm surrogate) and sensitivity to injected cluster signals. The comparison runs used a spatial resolution based on the facility zip code in the patient record and a finer resolution based on the residence zip code. Results Simple estimation methods that account for day-of-week (DOW) data patterns yielded a clear advantage both in background cluster rate and in signal sensitivity. A 28-day baseline gave the most robust results for this estimation; the preferred baseline is long enough to remove daily fluctuations but short enough to reflect recent disease trends and data representation. Background cluster rates were lower for the rash syndrome counts than for the respiratory counts, likely because of seasonality and the large scale of the respiratory counts. Conclusion The spatial estimation method should be chosen according to characteristics of the selected data streams. In this dataset with strong day-of-week effects, the overall best detection performance was achieved using subregion averages over a 28-day baseline stratified by weekday or weekend/holiday behavior. Changing the estimation method for particular scenarios involving different spatial resolution or other syndromes can yield further improvement. PMID:19615075

Global assessment of exposure to faecal contamination through drinking water based on a systematic review.

PubMed

Bain, Robert; Cronk, Ryan; Hossain, Rifat; Bonjour, Sophie; Onda, Kyle; Wright, Jim; Yang, Hong; Slaymaker, Tom; Hunter, Paul; Prüss-Ustün, Annette; Bartram, Jamie

2014-08-01

To estimate exposure to faecal contamination through drinking water as indicated by levels of Escherichia coli (E. coli) or thermotolerant coliform (TTC) in water sources. We estimated coverage of different types of drinking water source based on household surveys and censuses using multilevel modelling. Coverage data were combined with water quality studies that assessed E. coli or TTC including those identified by a systematic review (n = 345). Predictive models for the presence and level of contamination of drinking water sources were developed using random effects logistic regression and selected covariates. We assessed sensitivity of estimated exposure to study quality, indicator bacteria and separately considered nationally randomised surveys. We estimate that 1.8 billion people globally use a source of drinking water which suffers from faecal contamination, of these 1.1 billion drink water that is of at least 'moderate' risk (>10 E. coli or TTC per 100 ml). Data from nationally randomised studies suggest that 10% of improved sources may be 'high' risk, containing at least 100 E. coli or TTC per 100 ml. Drinking water is found to be more often contaminated in rural areas (41%, CI: 31%-51%) than in urban areas (12%, CI: 8-18%), and contamination is most prevalent in Africa (53%, CI: 42%-63%) and South-East Asia (35%, CI: 24%-45%). Estimates were not sensitive to the exclusion of low quality studies or restriction to studies reporting E. coli. Microbial contamination is widespread and affects all water source types, including piped supplies. Global burden of disease estimates may have substantially understated the disease burden associated with inadequate water services. © 2014 The Authors. Tropical Medicine and International Health published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Global assessment of exposure to faecal contamination through drinking water based on a systematic review

PubMed Central

Bain, Robert; Cronk, Ryan; Hossain, Rifat; Bonjour, Sophie; Onda, Kyle; Wright, Jim; Yang, Hong; Slaymaker, Tom; Hunter, Paul; Prüss-Ustün, Annette; Bartram, Jamie

2014-01-01

Objectives To estimate exposure to faecal contamination through drinking water as indicated by levels of Escherichia coli (E. coli) or thermotolerant coliform (TTC) in water sources. Methods We estimated coverage of different types of drinking water source based on household surveys and censuses using multilevel modelling. Coverage data were combined with water quality studies that assessed E. coli or TTC including those identified by a systematic review (n = 345). Predictive models for the presence and level of contamination of drinking water sources were developed using random effects logistic regression and selected covariates. We assessed sensitivity of estimated exposure to study quality, indicator bacteria and separately considered nationally randomised surveys. Results We estimate that 1.8 billion people globally use a source of drinking water which suffers from faecal contamination, of these 1.1 billion drink water that is of at least ‘moderate’ risk (>10 E. coli or TTC per 100 ml). Data from nationally randomised studies suggest that 10% of improved sources may be ‘high’ risk, containing at least 100 E. coli or TTC per 100 ml. Drinking water is found to be more often contaminated in rural areas (41%, CI: 31%–51%) than in urban areas (12%, CI: 8–18%), and contamination is most prevalent in Africa (53%, CI: 42%–63%) and South-East Asia (35%, CI: 24%–45%). Estimates were not sensitive to the exclusion of low quality studies or restriction to studies reporting E. coli. Conclusions Microbial contamination is widespread and affects all water source types, including piped supplies. Global burden of disease estimates may have substantially understated the disease burden associated with inadequate water services. PMID:24811893

Potential for broad-scale transmission of Ebola virus disease during the West Africa crisis: lessons for the Global Health security agenda.

PubMed

Undurraga, Eduardo A; Carias, Cristina; Meltzer, Martin I; Kahn, Emily B

2017-12-01

The 2014-2016 Ebola crisis in West Africa had approximately eight times as many reported deaths as the sum of all previous Ebola outbreaks. The outbreak magnitude and occurrence of multiple Ebola cases in at least seven countries beyond Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea, hinted at the possibility of broad-scale transmission of Ebola. Using a modeling tool developed by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention during the Ebola outbreak, we estimated the number of Ebola cases that might have occurred had the disease spread beyond the three countries in West Africa to cities in other countries at high risk for disease transmission (based on late 2014 air travel patterns). We estimated Ebola cases in three scenarios: a delayed response, a Liberia-like response, and a fast response scenario. Based on our estimates of the number of Ebola cases that could have occurred had Ebola spread to other countries beyond the West African foci, we emphasize the need for improved levels of preparedness and response to public health threats, which is the goal of the Global Health Security Agenda. Our estimates suggest that Ebola could have potentially spread widely beyond the West Africa foci, had local and international health workers and organizations not committed to a major response effort. Our results underscore the importance of rapid detection and initiation of an effective, organized response, and the challenges faced by countries with limited public health systems. Actionable lessons for strengthening local public health systems in countries at high risk of disease transmission include increasing health personnel, bolstering primary and critical healthcare facilities, developing public health infrastructure (e.g. laboratory capacity), and improving disease surveillance. With stronger local public health systems infectious disease outbreaks would still occur, but their rapid escalation would be considerably less likely, minimizing the impact of public health threats such as Ebola. The Ebola outbreak could have potentially spread to other countries, where limited public health surveillance and response capabilities may have resulted in additional foci. Health security requires robust local health systems that can rapidly detect and effectively respond to an infectious disease outbreak.

[The volume of surgery on the abdominal cavity organs in patients with associated cardiovascular and respiratory system diseases].

PubMed

Bondarenko, M V

2004-08-01

The cardiovascular and respiratory disturbances are the main risk factor in acute and chronic surgical deseases of the abdominal cavity organs, including oncological. It is limits the possibility and volume of the diagnostics and surgical tactics choice. The complicated current of main disease is a risk factor of operation perform and the reason of the undertaking inadequate and palliative intervention, which significant reduce of the quality of life. Real by risk level reductions in surgery is a determination of tissues viability, estimation of compensatory reserve sick evidences for determination for operation performance including simultaneous and staged.

Dying for work: The magnitude of US mortality from selected causes of death associated with occupation.

PubMed

Steenland, Kyle; Burnett, Carol; Lalich, Nina; Ward, Elizabeth; Hurrell, Joseph

2003-05-01

Deaths due to occupational disease and injury place a heavy burden on society in terms of economic costs and human suffering. We estimate the annual deaths due to selected diseases for which an occupational association is reasonably well established and quantifiable, by calculation of attributable fractions (AFs), with full documentation; the deaths due to occupational injury are then added to derive an estimated number of annual deaths due to occupation. Using 1997 US mortality data, the estimated annual burden of occupational disease mortality resulting from selected respiratory diseases, cancers, cardiovascular disease, chronic renal failure, and hepatitis is 49,000, with a range from 26,000 to 72,000. The Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates there are about 6,200 work-related injury deaths annually. Adding disease and injury data, we estimate that there are a total of 55,200 US deaths annually resulting from occupational disease or injury (range 32,200-78,200). Our estimate is in the range reported by previous investigators, although we have restricted ourselves more than others to only those diseases with well-established occupational etiology, biasing our estimates conservatively. The underlying assumptions and data used to generate the estimates are well documented, so our estimates may be updated as new data emerges on occupational risks and exposed populations, providing an advantage over previous studies. We estimate that occupational deaths are the 8th leading cause of death in the US, after diabetes (64,751) but ahead of suicide (30,575), and greater than the annual number of motor vehicle deaths per year (43,501). Copyright 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Estimating the Burden of Disease Associated with Outbreaks Reported to the U.S. Waterborne Disease Outbreak Surveillance System: Identifying Limitations and Improvements (Final Report)

EPA Science Inventory

This report demonstrates how data from the Waterborne Disease Outbreak Surveillance System (WBDOSS) can be used to estimate disease burden and presents results using 30 years of data. This systematic analysis does not attempt to provide an estimate of the actual incidence and b...

Harris-Benedict equation estimations of energy needs as compared to measured 24-h energy expenditure by indirect calorimetry in people with early to mid-stage Huntington's disease.

PubMed

Gaba, Ann; Zhang, Kuan; Moskowitz, Carol B; Boozer, Carol N; Marder, Karen

2008-10-01

Weight loss and energy metabolism are important clinical research areas in understanding the disease mechanisms in Huntington's disease. Having an accurate method to estimate expected total energy expenditure would likely facilitate the development of studies about these features of the disease. The Harris-Benedict equation is a formula commonly used to estimate basal energy expenditure of individuals, adjusted for height, weight, age and gender. This estimate is then multiplied by a physical activity factor to estimate total daily energy needs to maintain the given weight. Data from 24-h indirect calorimetry was utilized to derive an adjustment formula for the physical activity factor of the Harris-Benedict equation for 13 early to mid-stage Huntington's disease patients. The adjusted activity factor provided the most accurate estimate of energy needs. This adjusted formula can be used in clinical assessments of Huntington's disease patients, as well as in research studies when indirect calorimetry has not been performed.

Epidemiology and economic burden of measles, mumps, pertussis, and varicella in Germany: a systematic review.

PubMed

Damm, Oliver; Witte, Julian; Wetzka, Stefanie; Prosser, Christine; Braun, Sebastian; Welte, Robert; Greiner, Wolfgang

2016-09-01

Despite the availability of vaccines and the existence of public vaccination recommendations, outbreaks of vaccine-preventable childhood diseases still cause public health debate. The objective of this systematic review was to provide an overview of the current epidemiology and economic burden of measles, mumps, pertussis, and varicella in Germany. We systematically reviewed studies published since 2000. The literature search was conducted using PubMed and EMBASE. Also, we used German notification data to give an up-to-date overview of the epidemiology of the four diseases under consideration. Thirty-six studies were included in our review. Results suggest that there is still considerable morbidity due to childhood diseases in Germany. Studies providing cost estimates are scarce. Comparative analyses of different data sources (notification data vs. claims data) revealed a potential underestimation of incidence estimates when using notification data. Furthermore, several studies showed regional differences in incidence of some of the diseases under consideration. Our findings underline the need for improved vaccination and communication strategies targeting all susceptible age and risk groups on a national and local level.

Long-term air pollution exposure and cardio- respiratory mortality: a review

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Current day concentrations of ambient air pollution have been associated with a range of adverse health effects, particularly mortality and morbidity due to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. In this review, we summarize the evidence from epidemiological studies on long-term exposure to fine and coarse particles, nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and elemental carbon on mortality from all-causes, cardiovascular disease and respiratory disease. We also summarize the findings on potentially susceptible subgroups across studies. We identified studies through a search in the databases Medline and Scopus and previous reviews until January 2013 and performed a meta-analysis if more than five studies were available for the same exposure metric. There is a significant number of new studies on long-term air pollution exposure, covering a wider geographic area, including Asia. These recent studies support associations found in previous cohort studies on PM2.5. The pooled effect estimate expressed as excess risk per 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 exposure was 6% (95% CI 4, 8%) for all-cause and 11% (95% CI 5, 16%) for cardiovascular mortality. Long-term exposure to PM2.5 was more associated with mortality from cardiovascular disease (particularly ischemic heart disease) than from non-malignant respiratory diseases (pooled estimate 3% (95% CI −6, 13%)). Significant heterogeneity in PM2.5 effect estimates was found across studies, likely related to differences in particle composition, infiltration of particles indoors, population characteristics and methodological differences in exposure assessment and confounder control. All-cause mortality was significantly associated with elemental carbon (pooled estimate per 1 μg/m3 6% (95% CI 5, 7%)) and NO2 (pooled estimate per 10 μg/m3 5% (95% CI 3, 8%)), both markers of combustion sources. There was little evidence for an association between long term coarse particulate matter exposure and mortality, possibly due to the small number of studies and limitations in exposure assessment. Across studies, there was little evidence for a stronger association among women compared to men. In subjects with lower education and obese subjects a larger effect estimate for mortality related to fine PM was found, though the evidence for differences related to education has been weakened in more recent studies. PMID:23714370

Impact of the Adalimumab Patient Support Program on Clinical Outcomes in Ankylosing Spondylitis: Results from the COMPANION Study.

PubMed

Bessette, Louis; Lebovic, Gerald; Millson, Brad; Charland, Katia; Donepudi, Krishna; Gaetano, Tania; Remple, Valencia; Latour, Martin G; Gazel, Sandra; Laliberté, Marie-Claude; Thorne, Carter

2018-06-01

Adalimumab (ADA) is a tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-alpha inhibitor indicated for the treatment of inflammatory autoimmune diseases, including ankylosing spondylitis (AS). Patients receiving ADA in Canada are eligible to enroll in the AbbVie Care™ patient support program (AC-PSP), which provides personalized services, including care coach calls (CCCs). We estimated the likelihood of controlled disease in a cohort of AS patients treated with ADA enrolled in the AC-PSP and who received CCCs versus those who did not. A longitudinal analysis using de-identified aggregate-level data collected through the AC-PSP was performed. A probabilistic matching algorithm was used to link patient-level records from the AC-PSP database to records from the QuintilesIMS longitudinal prescription transactions database. Patients were indexed on the date of their first prescription of ADA between January 2010 and October 2015. The AC-PSP database included patient assessments of the Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Index (BASDAI), a measure of disease activity. Eligible patients had a baseline BASDAI assessment performed between 90 days before and 30 days after the index date, and a follow-up BASDAI assessment 6-18 months later. Poisson regression was used to estimate the adjusted relative risk (RR) of controlled disease (BASDAI < 4) at the time of follow-up, comparing patients who received CCCs with those who did not. In total 249 AS patients met eligibility criteria, and 123 (49%) received CCCs. Of the 249 patients, 184 (74%) had controlled disease (BASDAI < 4) at follow-up assessment, 98 (80%) in the CCC group and 86 (68%) in the no CCC group. Multivariable regression analysis demonstrated a 23% increased likelihood of controlled disease in patients who received CCCs relative to those who did not (RR = 1.23; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.42; p = 0.0055). AS patients receiving tailored services through the AC-PSP in the form of CCCs have an increased likelihood of controlled disease within 6-18 months. AbbVie.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

PubMed

2015-08-22

Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2·4 billion and 1·6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537·6 million in 1990 to 764·8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114·87 per 1000 people to 110·31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21·1% in 1990 to 31·2% in 2013. Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Summary Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2·4 billion and 1·6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537·6 million in 1990 to 764·8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114·87 per 1000 people to 110·31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21·1% in 1990 to 31·2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world’s population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries. PMID:26063472

Pulmonary Hypertension Is Associated With a Higher Risk of Heart Failure Hospitalization and Mortality in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease: The Jackson Heart Study.

PubMed

Selvaraj, Senthil; Shah, Sanjiv J; Ommerborn, Mark J; Clark, Cheryl R; Hall, Michael E; Mentz, Robert J; Qazi, Saadia; Robbins, Jeremy M; Skelton, Thomas N; Chen, Jiaying; Gaziano, J Michael; Djoussé, Luc

2017-06-01

African Americans develop chronic kidney disease and pulmonary hypertension (PH) at disproportionately high rates. Little is known whether PH heightens the risk of heart failure (HF) admission or mortality among chronic kidney disease patients, including patients with non-end-stage renal disease. We analyzed African Americans participants with chronic kidney disease (estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min per 1.73 m 2 or urine albumin/creatinine >30 mg/g) and available echocardiogram-derived pulmonary artery systolic pressure (PASP) from the Jackson Heart Study (N=408). We used Cox models to assess whether PH (PASP>35 mm Hg) was associated with higher rates of HF hospitalization and mortality. In a secondary, cross-sectional analysis, we examined the relationship between cystatin C (a marker of renal function) and PASP and potential mediators, including BNP (B-type natriuretic peptide) and endothelin-1. In our cohort, the mean age was 63±13 years, 70% were female, 78% had hypertension, and 22% had PH. Eighty-five percent of the participants had an estimated glomerular filtration rate >30 mL/min per 1.73 m 2 . During follow-up, 13% were hospitalized for HF and 27% died. After adjusting for potential confounders, including BNP, PH was found to be associated with HF hospitalization (hazard ratio, 2.37; 95% confidence interval, 1.15-4.86) and the combined outcome of HF hospitalization or mortality (hazard ratio, 1.84; confidence interval, 1.09-3.10). Log cystatin C was directly associated with PASP (adjusted β =2.5 [95% confidence interval, 0.8-4.1] per standard deviation change in cystatin C). Mediation analysis showed that BNP and endothelin-1 explained 56% and 40%, respectively, of the indirect effects between cystatin C and PASP. Among African Americans with chronic kidney disease, PH, which is likely pulmonary venous hypertension, was associated with a higher risk of HF admission and mortality. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Risk Estimation for Lung Cancer in Libya: Analysis Based on Standardized Morbidity Ratio, Poisson-Gamma Model, BYM Model and Mixture Model

PubMed

Alhdiri, Maryam Ahmed; Samat, Nor Azah; Mohamed, Zulkifley

2017-03-01

Cancer is the most rapidly spreading disease in the world, especially in developing countries, including Libya. Cancer represents a significant burden on patients, families, and their societies. This disease can be controlled if detected early. Therefore, disease mapping has recently become an important method in the fields of public health research and disease epidemiology. The correct choice of statistical model is a very important step to producing a good map of a disease. Libya was selected to perform this work and to examine its geographical variation in the incidence of lung cancer. The objective of this paper is to estimate the relative risk for lung cancer. Four statistical models to estimate the relative risk for lung cancer and population censuses of the study area for the time period 2006 to 2011 were used in this work. They are initially known as Standardized Morbidity Ratio, which is the most popular statistic, which used in the field of disease mapping, Poisson-gamma model, which is one of the earliest applications of Bayesian methodology, Besag, York and Mollie (BYM) model and Mixture model. As an initial step, this study begins by providing a review of all proposed models, which we then apply to lung cancer data in Libya. Maps, tables and graph, goodness-of-fit (GOF) were used to compare and present the preliminary results. This GOF is common in statistical modelling to compare fitted models. The main general results presented in this study show that the Poisson-gamma model, BYM model, and Mixture model can overcome the problem of the first model (SMR) when there is no observed lung cancer case in certain districts. Results show that the Mixture model is most robust and provides better relative risk estimates across a range of models. Creative Commons Attribution License

Risk Estimation for Lung Cancer in Libya: Analysis Based on Standardized Morbidity Ratio, Poisson-Gamma Model, BYM Model and Mixture Model

PubMed Central

Alhdiri, Maryam Ahmed; Samat, Nor Azah; Mohamed, Zulkifley

2017-01-01

Cancer is the most rapidly spreading disease in the world, especially in developing countries, including Libya. Cancer represents a significant burden on patients, families, and their societies. This disease can be controlled if detected early. Therefore, disease mapping has recently become an important method in the fields of public health research and disease epidemiology. The correct choice of statistical model is a very important step to producing a good map of a disease. Libya was selected to perform this work and to examine its geographical variation in the incidence of lung cancer. The objective of this paper is to estimate the relative risk for lung cancer. Four statistical models to estimate the relative risk for lung cancer and population censuses of the study area for the time period 2006 to 2011 were used in this work. They are initially known as Standardized Morbidity Ratio, which is the most popular statistic, which used in the field of disease mapping, Poisson-gamma model, which is one of the earliest applications of Bayesian methodology, Besag, York and Mollie (BYM) model and Mixture model. As an initial step, this study begins by providing a review of all proposed models, which we then apply to lung cancer data in Libya. Maps, tables and graph, goodness-of-fit (GOF) were used to compare and present the preliminary results. This GOF is common in statistical modelling to compare fitted models. The main general results presented in this study show that the Poisson-gamma model, BYM model, and Mixture model can overcome the problem of the first model (SMR) when there is no observed lung cancer case in certain districts. Results show that the Mixture model is most robust and provides better relative risk estimates across a range of models. PMID:28440974

Study of Porphyromonas gingivalis in periodontal diseases: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Rafiei, Mohammad; Kiani, Faezeh; Sayehmiri, Fatemeh; Sayehmiri, Kourosh; Sheikhi, Abdolkarim; Zamanian Azodi, Mona

2017-01-01

Background : The mouth cavity hosts various types of anaerobic bacteria including Porphyromonas gingivalis , which causes periodontal inflammatory diseases. P. gingivalis is a gram-negative oral anaerobe and is considered as a main etiological factor in periodontal diseases. Several studies have reported a relationship between P. gingivalis in individuals with periodontal diseases and a critical role of this bacterium in the pathogenesis of periodontal diseases. The present study aimed at estimating this probability using a meta-analysis. Methods : We searched several databases including PubMed, Scopus, Google Scholar, and Web of Science to identify case-control studies addressing the relationship between P. gingivalis with periodontal diseases. A total of 49 reports published from different countries from 1993 to 2014 were included in this study. I² (heterogeneity index) statistics were calculated to examine heterogeneity. Data were analyzed using STATA Version 11. Results : After a detailed analysis of the selected articles, 49 case-control studies with 5924 individuals fulfilled the inclusion criteria for the meta-analysis. The healthy controls included 2600 healthy individuals with a Mean±SD age of 36.56±7.45 years. The periodontal diseases group included 3356 patients with a mean age of 43.62±8.35 years. There was a statistically significant difference between P. gingivalis in periodontal patients and healthy controls; 9.24 (95% CI: 5.78 to 14.77; P = 0.000). In the other word, there was a significant relationship between the presence of P. gingivalis and periodontal diseases. Conclusion : Analyzing the results of the present study, we found a strong association between the presence of P. gingivalis and periodontal diseases. This result suggests that another research is needed to further assess this subject.

Heart age differentials and general cardiovascular risk profiles for persons with varying disabilities: NHANES 2001-2010.

PubMed

Hollar, David W; Lewis, Jennifer S

2015-01-01

Persons with disabilities are at risk for secondary conditions, including allostatic load contributing to cardiovascular disease. The General Cardiovascular Risk Profile (GCRP) estimates cardiovascular disease risk for individuals. The GCRP variables are present in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) for the Healthy People 2010 decade. The objective of this study was to compare persons with varying disabilities versus persons without disabilities on GCRP cardiovascular disease risk estimates across the Healthy People 2010 decade. Weighted cross-sectional one-way Analyses of Variance (ANOVA) and non-parametric Kruskal-Wallis analyses compared persons with each of eight disability types versus persons without disabilities for point estimate GCRP heart vascular age differential and Cox regression model ten-year risk estimate in each NHANES survey year for 2001-2010. Persons with mobility or vision disabilities had significantly (p < .025) greater ten-year percent risks for cardiovascular disease and negative heart vascular age differentials (with respect to actual age, therefore "older" hearts) than persons without disabilities. The GCRP dual models conflict for certain disabilities (e.g., hearing, physical/mental/emotional) but are consistently reliable measures of GCRP for persons with mobility limitations and vision disabilities. With higher CVD risk among persons with disabilities, there is a clear need for increased interventions to benefit the health of persons with disabilities. The GCRP represents a valuable, simple measurement that uses routinely collected examination data. Physicians and nurses can use the GCRP to make immediate CVD assessments and to provide point-of-contact counseling to patients with and without disabilities. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Relationship between renal function and renal volume in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease: cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Torres-Sánchez, M J; Ávila-Barranco, E; Esteban de la Rosa, R J; Fernández-Castillo, R; Esteban, M A; Carrero, J J; García-Valverde, M; Bravo-Soto, J A

2016-03-01

To determine in patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease the relationship between total renal volume (the sum of both kidneys, TRV) as measured by magnetic resonance and renal function; and its behaviour according to sex and the presence of arterial hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia and hyperglycemia. Cross-sectional study including patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease who underwent periodic reviews at Nephrology external consultations at Hospital de las Nieves de Granada, and who underwent an magnetic resonance to estimate renal volume between January 2008 and March 2011. We evaluated 67 patients (59.7% women, average age of 48±14.4 years) and found a significant positive association between TRV and serum creatinine or urea, which was reversed compared with estimated glomerular filtration by MDRD-4 and Cockcroft-Gault. Women showed an average serum creatinine level and a significantly lower TRV level compared with males. Subgroups affected by arterial hypertension and hyperuricemia presented average values for serum creatinine and urea, higher for TRV and lower for estimated glomerular filtration. The hypercholesterolaemia subgroup showed higher average values for urea and lower for estimated glomerular filtration, without detecting significant differences compared with TRV. The volume of polycystic kidneys measured by magnetic resonance is associated with renal function, and can be useful as a complementary study to monitor disease progression. The presence of arterial hypertension, hyperuricemia or hypercholesterolaemia is associated with a poorer renal function. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. y Sociedad Española de Medicina Interna (SEMI). All rights reserved.

Preventive and social cost implications of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak on selected organizations in Lagos state, Nigeria

PubMed Central

Olugasa, Babasola Oluseyi; Oshinowo, Oluwafunmilola Yemisi; Odigie, Eugene Amienwanlen

2015-01-01

Introduction As Ebola virus disease (EVD) continues to pose public health challenge in West Africa, with attending fears and socio-economic implications in the current epidemic challenges. It is compelling to estimate the social and preventive costs of EVD containment in a Nigerian city. Hence, this study was to determine the social and preventive cost implications of EVD among selected public institutions in Lagos, Nigeria, from July to December, 2014. Methods Questionnaires and key-informants interview were administered to respondents and administrators of selected hospitals, hotels and schools in Eti-Osa Local Government Area of Lagos State. Knowledge of disease transmission, mortality and protocols for prevention, including cost of specific preventive measures adopted against EVD were elicited from respondents. Descriptive statistics and categorical analysis were used to summarize and estimate social and preventive costs incurred by respective institutions. Results An estimated five million, nineteen thousand, three hundred and seventy-nine Naira and eighty kobo (N5,019,379.80) only was observed as direct and social cost implication of EVD prevention. This amount translated into a conservative estimate of one billion, twenty-seven million, ninety-four thousand, seven hundred and fifty-six Naira (N1,027,094,756.10) for a total of four thousand schools, two hundred and fifty-three hospitals and one thousand, four hundred and fifty one hotels in Lagos during the period (July 20-November 20, 2014). Conclusion The high cost of prevention of EVD within the short time-frame indicated high importance attached to a preventive policy against highly pathogenic zoonotic disease in Nigeria. PMID:26740848

A model to estimate effects of SNPs on host susceptibility and infectivity for an endemic infectious disease.

PubMed

Biemans, Floor; de Jong, Mart C M; Bijma, Piter

2017-06-30

Infectious diseases in farm animals affect animal health, decrease animal welfare and can affect human health. Selection and breeding of host individuals with desirable traits regarding infectious diseases can help to fight disease transmission, which is affected by two types of (genetic) traits: host susceptibility and host infectivity. Quantitative genetic studies on infectious diseases generally connect an individual's disease status to its own genotype, and therefore capture genetic effects on susceptibility only. However, they usually ignore variation in exposure to infectious herd mates, which may limit the accuracy of estimates of genetic effects on susceptibility. Moreover, genetic effects on infectivity will exist as well. Thus, to design optimal breeding strategies, it is essential that genetic effects on infectivity are quantified. Given the potential importance of genetic effects on infectivity, we set out to develop a model to estimate the effect of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on both host susceptibility and host infectivity. To evaluate the quality of the resulting SNP effect estimates, we simulated an endemic disease in 10 groups of 100 individuals, and recorded time-series data on individual disease status. We quantified bias and precision of the estimates for different sizes of SNP effects, and identified the optimum recording interval when the number of records is limited. We present a generalized linear mixed model to estimate the effect of SNPs on both host susceptibility and host infectivity. SNP effects were on average slightly underestimated, i.e. estimates were conservative. Estimates were less precise for infectivity than for susceptibility. Given our sample size, the power to estimate SNP effects for susceptibility was 100% for differences between genotypes of a factor 1.56 or more, and was higher than 60% for infectivity for differences between genotypes of a factor 4 or more. When disease status was recorded 11 times on each animal, the optimal recording interval was 25 to 50% of the average infectious period. Our model was able to estimate genetic effects on susceptibility and infectivity. In future genome-wide association studies, it may serve as a starting point to identify genes that affect disease transmission and disease prevalence.

North Dakota's forests 2005

Treesearch

David E. Haugen; Michael Kangas; Susan J. Crocker; Charles H. Perry; Christopher W. Woodall; Brett J. Butler; Barry T. Wilson; Dan J. Kaisershot

2009-01-01

The first completed annual inventory of North Dakota's forests reports estimates of more than 724,000 acres of forest land. Information about forest attributes and forest health is presented along with information on agents of change including changing land use patterns and the introduction of nonnative plants, insects, and disease.

Heavy Metal.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Black, Susan

2001-01-01

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimate that more than 1 million children ages 5 and under are afflicted with unsafe amounts of lead. Schools can be a source of lead poisoning. Other sources include playgrounds near freeways, playground equipment, contaminated soil, and technology rooms with lead-bearing supplies. Sidebars…

School-Based Condom Availability Programs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schmiedl, Renee

2004-01-01

The repercussions of sexual activity among teens continue to be a significant issue in the United States. Detrimental consequences to unprotected sexual activity among teens include unintended pregnancy and acquiring a sexually transmitted disease (STD) or human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). It is estimated that each year approximately 3 million…

Occupational exposure to asbestos and cardiovascular related diseases: A meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Rong, Yi; Luo, Xin; Zhang, Zhihong; Cui, Xiuqing; Liu, Yuewei; Chen, Weihong

2015-01-01

Asbestos has become one of the leading causes of death among occupational workers in the world. The association between asbestos and cardiovascular disease is less reported. We performed a meta-analysis to quantify the association between asbestos exposure and the mortality of cardiovascular related diseases. We performed a systematic review in the PubMed database before December 2014. All cohort studies citing the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) of cardiovascular related diseases in workers exposed to asbestos were collected. We then calculated the pooled standardized mortality ratios of such diseases. Sixteen studies were included. The combined results from all studies indicated the pooled SMR estimate for cardiovascular related diseases was 1.11 (95% CI, 1.01–1.22). This meta-analysis showed that asbestos exposure significantly increased the risk of cardiovascular related diseases in exposed workers. PMID:26844169

The impact of communicating genetic risks of disease on risk-reducing health behaviour: systematic review with meta-analysis.

PubMed

Hollands, Gareth J; French, David P; Griffin, Simon J; Prevost, A Toby; Sutton, Stephen; King, Sarah; Marteau, Theresa M

2016-03-15

To assess the impact of communicating DNA based disease risk estimates on risk-reducing health behaviours and motivation to engage in such behaviours. Systematic review with meta-analysis, using Cochrane methods. Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, CINAHL, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials up to 25 February 2015. Backward and forward citation searches were also conducted. Randomised and quasi-randomised controlled trials involving adults in which one group received personalised DNA based estimates of disease risk for conditions where risk could be reduced by behaviour change. Eligible studies included a measure of risk-reducing behaviour. We examined 10,515 abstracts and included 18 studies that reported on seven behavioural outcomes, including smoking cessation (six studies; n=2663), diet (seven studies; n=1784), and physical activity (six studies; n=1704). Meta-analysis revealed no significant effects of communicating DNA based risk estimates on smoking cessation (odds ratio 0.92, 95% confidence interval 0.63 to 1.35, P=0.67), diet (standardised mean difference 0.12, 95% confidence interval -0.00 to 0.24, P=0.05), or physical activity (standardised mean difference -0.03, 95% confidence interval -0.13 to 0.08, P=0.62). There were also no effects on any other behaviours (alcohol use, medication use, sun protection behaviours, and attendance at screening or behavioural support programmes) or on motivation to change behaviour, and no adverse effects, such as depression and anxiety. Subgroup analyses provided no clear evidence that communication of a risk-conferring genotype affected behaviour more than communication of the absence of such a genotype. However, studies were predominantly at high or unclear risk of bias, and evidence was typically of low quality. Expectations that communicating DNA based risk estimates changes behaviour is not supported by existing evidence. These results do not support use of genetic testing or the search for risk-conferring gene variants for common complex diseases on the basis that they motivate risk-reducing behaviour. This is a revised and updated version of a Cochrane review from 2010, adding 11 studies to the seven previously identified. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Intervention strategies to reduce the burden of non-communicable diseases in Mexico: cost effectiveness analysis

PubMed Central

Carvalho, Natalie; Gutiérrez-Delgado, Cristina; Orozco, Ricardo; Mancuso, Anna; Hogan, Daniel R; Lee, Diana; Murakami, Yuki; Sridharan, Lakshmi; Medina-Mora, María Elena; González-Pier, Eduardo

2012-01-01

Objective To inform decision making regarding intervention strategies against non-communicable diseases in Mexico, in the context of health reform. Design Cost effectiveness analysis based on epidemiological modelling. Interventions 101 intervention strategies relating to nine major clusters of non-communicable disease: depression, heavy alcohol use, tobacco use, cataracts, breast cancer, cervical cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cardiovascular disease, and diabetes. Data sources Mexican data sources were used for most key input parameters, including administrative registries; disease burden and population estimates; household surveys; and drug price databases. These sources were supplemented as needed with estimates for Mexico from the WHO-CHOICE unit cost database or with estimates extrapolated from the published literature. Main outcome measures Population health outcomes, measured in disability adjusted life years (DALYs); costs in 2005 international dollars ($Int); and costs per DALY. Results Across 101 intervention strategies examined in this study, average yearly costs at the population level would range from around ≤$Int1m (such as for cataract surgeries) to >$Int1bn for certain strategies for primary prevention in cardiovascular disease. Wide variation also appeared in total population health benefits, from <1000 DALYs averted a year (for some components of cancer treatments or aspirin for acute ischaemic stroke) to >300 000 averted DALYs (for aggressive combinations of interventions to deal with alcohol use or cardiovascular risks). Interventions in this study spanned a wide range of average cost effectiveness ratios, differing by more than three orders of magnitude between the lowest and highest ratios. Overall, community and public health interventions such as non-personal interventions for alcohol use, tobacco use, and cardiovascular risks tended to have lower cost effectiveness ratios than many clinical interventions (of varying complexity). Even within the community and public health interventions, however, there was a 200-fold difference between the most and least cost effective strategies examined. Likewise, several clinical interventions appeared among the strategies with the lowest average cost effectiveness ratios—for example, cataract surgeries. Conclusions Wide variations in costs and effects exist within and across intervention categories. For every major disease area examined, at least some strategies provided excellent value for money, including both population based and personal interventions. PMID:22389335

Drivers of Tuberculosis Transmission.

PubMed

Mathema, Barun; Andrews, Jason R; Cohen, Ted; Borgdorff, Martien W; Behr, Marcel; Glynn, Judith R; Rustomjee, Roxana; Silk, Benjamin J; Wood, Robin

2017-11-03

Measuring tuberculosis transmission is exceedingly difficult, given the remarkable variability in the timing of clinical disease after Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection; incident disease can result from either a recent (ie, weeks to months) or a remote (ie, several years to decades) infection event. Although we cannot identify with certainty the timing and location of tuberculosis transmission for individuals, approaches for estimating the individual probability of recent transmission and for estimating the fraction of tuberculosis cases due to recent transmission in populations have been developed. Data used to estimate the probable burden of recent transmission include tuberculosis case notifications in young children and trends in tuberculin skin test and interferon γ-release assays. More recently, M. tuberculosis whole-genome sequencing has been used to estimate population levels of recent transmission, identify the distribution of specific strains within communities, and decipher chains of transmission among culture-positive tuberculosis cases. The factors that drive the transmission of tuberculosis in communities depend on the burden of prevalent tuberculosis; the ways in which individuals live, work, and interact (eg, congregate settings); and the capacity of healthcare and public health systems to identify and effectively treat individuals with infectious forms of tuberculosis. Here we provide an overview of these factors, describe tools for measurement of ongoing transmission, and highlight knowledge gaps that must be addressed. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

Observational and ecological studies of dietary advanced glycation end products in national diets and Alzheimer's disease incidence and prevalence.

PubMed

Perrone, Lorena; Grant, William B

2015-01-01

Considerable evidence indicates that diet is an important risk-modifying factor for Alzheimer's disease (AD). Evidence is also mounting that dietary advanced glycation end products (AGEs) are important risk factors for AD. This study strives to determine whether estimated dietary AGEs estimated from national diets and epidemiological studies are associated with increased AD incidence. We estimated values of dietary AGEs using values in a published paper. We estimated intake of dietary AGEs from the Washington Heights-Inwood Community Aging Project (WHICAP) 1992 and 1999 cohort studies, which investigated how the Mediterranean diet (MeDi) affected AD incidence. Further, AD prevalence data came from three ecological studies and included data from 11 countries for 1977-1993, seven developing countries for 1995-2005, and Japan for 1985-2008. The analysis used dietary AGE values from 20 years before the AD prevalence data. Meat was always the food with the largest amount of AGEs. Other foods with significant AGEs included fish, cheese, vegetables, and vegetable oil. High MeDi adherence results in lower meat and dairy intake, which possess high AGE content. By using two different models to extrapolate dietary AGE intake in the WHICAP 1992 and 1999 cohort studies, we showed that reduced dietary AGE significantly correlates with reduced AD incidence. For the ecological studies, estimates of dietary AGEs in the national diets corresponded well with AD prevalence data even though the cooking methods were not well known. Dietary AGEs appear to be important risk factors for AD.

Innovative measures to combat rare diseases in China: The national rare diseases registry system, larger-scale clinical cohort studies, and studies in combination with precision medicine research.

PubMed

Song, Peipei; He, Jiangjiang; Li, Fen; Jin, Chunlin

2017-02-01

China is facing the great challenge of treating the world's largest rare disease population, an estimated 16 million patients with rare diseases. One effort offering promise has been a pilot national project that was launched in 2013 and that focused on 20 representative rare diseases. Another government-supported special research program on rare diseases - the "Rare Diseases Clinical Cohort Study" - was launched in December 2016. According to the plan for this research project, the unified National Rare Diseases Registry System of China will be established as of 2020, and a large-scale cohort study will be conducted from 2016 to 2020. The project plans to develop 109 technical standards, to establish and improve 2 national databases of rare diseases - a multi-center clinical database and a biological sample library, and to conduct studies on more than 50,000 registered cases of 50 different rare diseases. More importantly, this study will be combined with the concept of precision medicine. Chinese population-specific basic information on rare diseases, clinical information, and genomic information will be integrated to create a comprehensive predictive model with a follow-up database system and a model to evaluate prognosis. This will provide the evidence for accurate classification, diagnosis, treatment, and estimation of prognosis for rare diseases in China. Numerous challenges including data standardization, protecting patient privacy, big data processing, and interpretation of genetic information still need to be overcome, but research prospects offer great promise.

Genetic sharing and heritability of paediatric age of onset autoimmune diseases

PubMed Central

Li, Yun R.; Zhao, Sihai D.; Li, Jin; Bradfield, Jonathan P.; Mohebnasab, Maede; Steel, Laura; Kobie, Julie; Abrams, Debra J.; Mentch, Frank D.; Glessner, Joseph T.; Guo, Yiran; Wei, Zhi; Connolly, John J.; Cardinale, Christopher J.; Bakay, Marina; Li, Dong; Maggadottir, S. Melkorka; Thomas, Kelly A.; Qui, Haijun; Chiavacci, Rosetta M.; Kim, Cecilia E.; Wang, Fengxiang; Snyder, James; Flatø, Berit; Førre, Øystein; Denson, Lee A.; Thompson, Susan D.; Becker, Mara L.; Guthery, Stephen L.; Latiano, Anna; Perez, Elena; Resnick, Elena; Strisciuglio, Caterina; Staiano, Annamaria; Miele, Erasmo; Silverberg, Mark S.; Lie, Benedicte A.; Punaro, Marilynn; Russell, Richard K.; Wilson, David C.; Dubinsky, Marla C.; Monos, Dimitri S.; Annese, Vito; Munro, Jane E.; Wise, Carol; Chapel, Helen; Cunningham-Rundles, Charlotte; Orange, Jordan S.; Behrens, Edward M.; Sullivan, Kathleen E.; Kugathasan, Subra; Griffiths, Anne M.; Satsangi, Jack; Grant, Struan F. A.; Sleiman, Patrick M. A.; Finkel, Terri H.; Polychronakos, Constantin; Baldassano, Robert N.; Luning Prak, Eline T.; Ellis, Justine A.; Li, Hongzhe; Keating, Brendan J.; Hakonarson, Hakon

2015-01-01

Autoimmune diseases (AIDs) are polygenic diseases affecting 7–10% of the population in the Western Hemisphere with few effective therapies. Here, we quantify the heritability of paediatric AIDs (pAIDs), including JIA, SLE, CEL, T1D, UC, CD, PS, SPA and CVID, attributable to common genomic variations (SNP-h2). SNP-h2 estimates are most significant for T1D (0.863±s.e. 0.07) and JIA (0.727±s.e. 0.037), more modest for UC (0.386±s.e. 0.04) and CD (0.454±0.025), largely consistent with population estimates and are generally greater than that previously reported by adult GWAS. On pairwise analysis, we observed that the diseases UC-CD (0.69±s.e. 0.07) and JIA-CVID (0.343±s.e. 0.13) are the most strongly correlated. Variations across the MHC strongly contribute to SNP-h2 in T1D and JIA, but does not significantly contribute to the pairwise rG. Together, our results partition contributions of shared versus disease-specific genomic variations to pAID heritability, identifying pAIDs with unexpected risk sharing, while recapitulating known associations between autoimmune diseases previously reported in adult cohorts. PMID:26450413

Temporal Topic Modeling to Assess Associations between News Trends and Infectious Disease Outbreaks.

PubMed

Ghosh, Saurav; Chakraborty, Prithwish; Nsoesie, Elaine O; Cohn, Emily; Mekaru, Sumiko R; Brownstein, John S; Ramakrishnan, Naren

2017-01-19

In retrospective assessments, internet news reports have been shown to capture early reports of unknown infectious disease transmission prior to official laboratory confirmation. In general, media interest and reporting peaks and wanes during the course of an outbreak. In this study, we quantify the extent to which media interest during infectious disease outbreaks is indicative of trends of reported incidence. We introduce an approach that uses supervised temporal topic models to transform large corpora of news articles into temporal topic trends. The key advantages of this approach include: applicability to a wide range of diseases and ability to capture disease dynamics, including seasonality, abrupt peaks and troughs. We evaluated the method using data from multiple infectious disease outbreaks reported in the United States of America (U.S.), China, and India. We demonstrate that temporal topic trends extracted from disease-related news reports successfully capture the dynamics of multiple outbreaks such as whooping cough in U.S. (2012), dengue outbreaks in India (2013) and China (2014). Our observations also suggest that, when news coverage is uniform, efficient modeling of temporal topic trends using time-series regression techniques can estimate disease case counts with increased precision before official reports by health organizations.

Temporal Topic Modeling to Assess Associations between News Trends and Infectious Disease Outbreaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, Saurav; Chakraborty, Prithwish; Nsoesie, Elaine O.; Cohn, Emily; Mekaru, Sumiko R.; Brownstein, John S.; Ramakrishnan, Naren

2017-01-01

In retrospective assessments, internet news reports have been shown to capture early reports of unknown infectious disease transmission prior to official laboratory confirmation. In general, media interest and reporting peaks and wanes during the course of an outbreak. In this study, we quantify the extent to which media interest during infectious disease outbreaks is indicative of trends of reported incidence. We introduce an approach that uses supervised temporal topic models to transform large corpora of news articles into temporal topic trends. The key advantages of this approach include: applicability to a wide range of diseases and ability to capture disease dynamics, including seasonality, abrupt peaks and troughs. We evaluated the method using data from multiple infectious disease outbreaks reported in the United States of America (U.S.), China, and India. We demonstrate that temporal topic trends extracted from disease-related news reports successfully capture the dynamics of multiple outbreaks such as whooping cough in U.S. (2012), dengue outbreaks in India (2013) and China (2014). Our observations also suggest that, when news coverage is uniform, efficient modeling of temporal topic trends using time-series regression techniques can estimate disease case counts with increased precision before official reports by health organizations.

Temporal Topic Modeling to Assess Associations between News Trends and Infectious Disease Outbreaks

PubMed Central

Ghosh, Saurav; Chakraborty, Prithwish; Nsoesie, Elaine O.; Cohn, Emily; Mekaru, Sumiko R.; Brownstein, John S.; Ramakrishnan, Naren

2017-01-01

In retrospective assessments, internet news reports have been shown to capture early reports of unknown infectious disease transmission prior to official laboratory confirmation. In general, media interest and reporting peaks and wanes during the course of an outbreak. In this study, we quantify the extent to which media interest during infectious disease outbreaks is indicative of trends of reported incidence. We introduce an approach that uses supervised temporal topic models to transform large corpora of news articles into temporal topic trends. The key advantages of this approach include: applicability to a wide range of diseases and ability to capture disease dynamics, including seasonality, abrupt peaks and troughs. We evaluated the method using data from multiple infectious disease outbreaks reported in the United States of America (U.S.), China, and India. We demonstrate that temporal topic trends extracted from disease-related news reports successfully capture the dynamics of multiple outbreaks such as whooping cough in U.S. (2012), dengue outbreaks in India (2013) and China (2014). Our observations also suggest that, when news coverage is uniform, efficient modeling of temporal topic trends using time-series regression techniques can estimate disease case counts with increased precision before official reports by health organizations. PMID:28102319

Cost of illness of Crohn's disease.

PubMed

Bodger, Keith

2002-01-01

Crohn's disease is a chronic inflammatory bowel disease of unknown aetiology which affects around 35,000 people in the UK (population 56.8 million). The potential for onset in early adult life, disease chronicity and a need for hospitalisation and surgery mean that the disease can be associated with substantial healthcare costs. Cost-of-illness studies focusing on direct medical costs have identified that over half the average costs associated with the disease relate to hospital costs. Estimates of the contribution of drug costs to the total direct economic burden have varied between 4.6 and 25%. Figures for average annual direct costs per patient in the US have been put at between US dollars 6561 (1990 values) and US dollars 12,417 (1994 values), whereas European studies have given much lower cost estimates (US dollars 655, 1994 values). However, all studies have highlighted that much of the total cost of illness relates to extensive interventions required by a small proportion of severely affected individuals. Indirect costs associated with reduced productivity in Crohn's disease can be high, with long periods of absenteeism and early disability. However, most patients (90%) remain in the workforce and life expectancy is relatively normal. A variety of drugs are employed for the treatment of Crohn's disease, both in an attempt to induce clinical remission in active disease and to maintain remission once this has been achieved. Comparative data on cost effectiveness is lacking, though crude estimates based on randomised trials suggest that the frequently prescribed aminosalicylates, which have only modest efficacy, are a relatively costly drug option. The costs associated with adverse drug effects, particularly for corticosteroids, have not been formally quantified. Despite high costs, new drug therapies for more severe disease, such as anti-tumour necrosis factor (TNF-alpha) antibodies, may prove a cost-effective option if the need for hospitalisation is reduced. In a modelling exercise, a US group estimated that if a theoretical new drug was introduced which was capable of reducing non-drug costs (including hospitalisation) by a fifth despite doubling the overall drugs bill, there would still be a reduction in the overall costs of Crohn's disease by 13%. Although surgical therapy is costly, there may be prolonged post-surgical remission following resection of localised disease and early surgery may represent a cost-effective option for selected patients. Without formal cost-effectiveness analyses, or (better still) clinical trials incorporating cost data, decisions about the relative efficiency of treatment alternatives for Crohn's disease remain subjective and more research is clearly required in this area.

Burden of disease from inadequate water, sanitation and hygiene in low- and middle-income settings: a retrospective analysis of data from 145 countries

PubMed Central

Prüss-Ustün, Annette; Bartram, Jamie; Clasen, Thomas; Colford, John M; Cumming, Oliver; Curtis, Valerie; Bonjour, Sophie; Dangour, Alan D; De France, Jennifer; Fewtrell, Lorna; Freeman, Matthew C; Gordon, Bruce; Hunter, Paul R; Johnston, Richard B; Mathers, Colin; Mäusezahl, Daniel; Medlicott, Kate; Neira, Maria; Stocks, Meredith; Wolf, Jennyfer; Cairncross, Sandy

2014-01-01

Objective To estimate the burden of diarrhoeal diseases from exposure to inadequate water, sanitation and hand hygiene in low- and middle-income settings and provide an overview of the impact on other diseases. Methods For estimating the impact of water, sanitation and hygiene on diarrhoea, we selected exposure levels with both sufficient global exposure data and a matching exposure-risk relationship. Global exposure data were estimated for the year 2012, and risk estimates were taken from the most recent systematic analyses. We estimated attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) by country, age and sex for inadequate water, sanitation and hand hygiene separately, and as a cluster of risk factors. Uncertainty estimates were computed on the basis of uncertainty surrounding exposure estimates and relative risks. Results In 2012, 502 000 diarrhoea deaths were estimated to be caused by inadequate drinking water and 280 000 deaths by inadequate sanitation. The most likely estimate of disease burden from inadequate hand hygiene amounts to 297 000 deaths. In total, 842 000 diarrhoea deaths are estimated to be caused by this cluster of risk factors, which amounts to 1.5% of the total disease burden and 58% of diarrhoeal diseases. In children under 5 years old, 361 000 deaths could be prevented, representing 5.5% of deaths in that age group. Conclusions This estimate confirms the importance of improving water and sanitation in low- and middle-income settings for the prevention of diarrhoeal disease burden. It also underscores the need for better data on exposure and risk reductions that can be achieved with provision of reliable piped water, community sewage with treatment and hand hygiene. PMID:24779548

Burden of disease from inadequate water, sanitation and hygiene in low- and middle-income settings: a retrospective analysis of data from 145 countries.

PubMed

Prüss-Ustün, Annette; Bartram, Jamie; Clasen, Thomas; Colford, John M; Cumming, Oliver; Curtis, Valerie; Bonjour, Sophie; Dangour, Alan D; De France, Jennifer; Fewtrell, Lorna; Freeman, Matthew C; Gordon, Bruce; Hunter, Paul R; Johnston, Richard B; Mathers, Colin; Mäusezahl, Daniel; Medlicott, Kate; Neira, Maria; Stocks, Meredith; Wolf, Jennyfer; Cairncross, Sandy

2014-08-01

To estimate the burden of diarrhoeal diseases from exposure to inadequate water, sanitation and hand hygiene in low- and middle-income settings and provide an overview of the impact on other diseases. For estimating the impact of water, sanitation and hygiene on diarrhoea, we selected exposure levels with both sufficient global exposure data and a matching exposure-risk relationship. Global exposure data were estimated for the year 2012, and risk estimates were taken from the most recent systematic analyses. We estimated attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) by country, age and sex for inadequate water, sanitation and hand hygiene separately, and as a cluster of risk factors. Uncertainty estimates were computed on the basis of uncertainty surrounding exposure estimates and relative risks. In 2012, 502,000 diarrhoea deaths were estimated to be caused by inadequate drinking water and 280,000 deaths by inadequate sanitation. The most likely estimate of disease burden from inadequate hand hygiene amounts to 297,000 deaths. In total, 842,000 diarrhoea deaths are estimated to be caused by this cluster of risk factors, which amounts to 1.5% of the total disease burden and 58% of diarrhoeal diseases. In children under 5 years old, 361,000 deaths could be prevented, representing 5.5% of deaths in that age group. This estimate confirms the importance of improving water and sanitation in low- and middle-income settings for the prevention of diarrhoeal disease burden. It also underscores the need for better data on exposure and risk reductions that can be achieved with provision of reliable piped water, community sewage with treatment and hand hygiene. © 2014 The Authors. Tropical Medicine and International Health published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Chronic kidney disease in patients at high risk of cardiovascular disease in the United Arab Emirates: A population-based study.

PubMed

Al-Shamsi, S; Regmi, D; Govender, R D

2018-01-01

Chronic kidney disease has become an increasingly significant clinical and public health issue, accounting for 1.1 million deaths worldwide. Information on the epidemiology of chronic kidney disease and associated risk factors is limited in the United Arab Emirates. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the incidence and causes of chronic kidney disease stages 3-5 in adult United Arab Emirates nationals with or at high risk of cardiovascular disease. This retrospective study included 491 adults with or at high risk of cardiovascular disease (diabetes mellitus or associated clinical disease) who attended outpatient clinics at a tertiary care hospital in Al-Ain, United Arab Emirates. Estimated glomerular filtration rate was assessed every 3 months from baseline to June 30, 2017. Chronic kidney disease stages 3-5 were defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 for ≥ 3 months. Multivariable Cox's proportional hazards analysis was used to determine the independent risk factors associated with developing chronic kidney disease stages 3-5. The cumulative incidence of chronic kidney disease stages 3-5 over a 9-year period was 11.4% (95% confidence interval 8.6, 14.0). The incidence rate of these disease stages was 164.8 (95% confidence interval 121.6, 207.9) per 10,000 person-years. The independent risk factors for developing chronic kidney disease stages 3-5 were older age, history of coronary heart disease, history of diabetes mellitus, and history of smoking. These data may be useful to develop effective strategies to prevent chronic kidney disease development in high-risk United Arab Emirates nationals.

The economic benefits of reducing physical inactivity: an Australian example

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Physical inactivity has major impacts on health and productivity. Our aim was to estimate the health and economic benefits of reducing the prevalence of physical inactivity in the 2008 Australian adult population. The economic benefits were estimated as 'opportunity cost savings', which represent resources utilized in the treatment of preventable disease that are potentially available for re-direction to another purpose from fewer incident cases of disease occurring in communities. Methods Simulation models were developed to show the effect of a 10% feasible, reduction target for physical inactivity from current Australian levels (70%). Lifetime cohort health benefits were estimated as fewer incident cases of inactivity-related diseases; deaths; and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) by age and sex. Opportunity costs were estimated as health sector cost impacts, as well as paid and unpaid production gains and leisure impacts from fewer disease events associated with reduced physical inactivity. Workforce production gains were estimated by comparing surveyed participation and absenteeism rates of physically active and inactive adults, and valued using the friction cost approach. The impact of an improvement in health status on unpaid household production and leisure time were modeled from time use survey data, as applied to the exposed and non-exposed population subgroups and valued by suitable proxy. Potential costs associated with interventions to increase physical activity were not included. Multivariable uncertainty analyses and univariate sensitivity analyses were undertaken to provide information on the strength of the conclusions. Results A 10% reduction in physical inactivity would result in 6,000 fewer incident cases of disease, 2,000 fewer deaths, 25,000 fewer DALYs and provide gains in working days (114,000), days of home-based production (180,000) while conferring a AUD96 million reduction in health sector costs. Lifetime potential opportunity cost savings in workforce production (AUD12 million), home-based production (AUD71 million) and leisure-based production (AUD79 million) was estimated (total AUD162 million 95% uncertainty interval AUD136 million, AUD196 million). Conclusions Opportunity cost savings and health benefits conservatively estimated from a reduction in population-level physical inactivity may be substantial. The largest savings will benefit individuals in the form of unpaid production and leisure gains, followed by the health sector, business and government. PMID:21943093

The economic benefits of reducing physical inactivity: an Australian example.

PubMed

Cadilhac, Dominique A; Cumming, Toby B; Sheppard, Lauren; Pearce, Dora C; Carter, Rob; Magnus, Anne

2011-09-24

Physical inactivity has major impacts on health and productivity. Our aim was to estimate the health and economic benefits of reducing the prevalence of physical inactivity in the 2008 Australian adult population. The economic benefits were estimated as 'opportunity cost savings', which represent resources utilized in the treatment of preventable disease that are potentially available for re-direction to another purpose from fewer incident cases of disease occurring in communities. Simulation models were developed to show the effect of a 10% feasible, reduction target for physical inactivity from current Australian levels (70%). Lifetime cohort health benefits were estimated as fewer incident cases of inactivity-related diseases; deaths; and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) by age and sex. Opportunity costs were estimated as health sector cost impacts, as well as paid and unpaid production gains and leisure impacts from fewer disease events associated with reduced physical inactivity. Workforce production gains were estimated by comparing surveyed participation and absenteeism rates of physically active and inactive adults, and valued using the friction cost approach. The impact of an improvement in health status on unpaid household production and leisure time were modeled from time use survey data, as applied to the exposed and non-exposed population subgroups and valued by suitable proxy. Potential costs associated with interventions to increase physical activity were not included. Multivariable uncertainty analyses and univariate sensitivity analyses were undertaken to provide information on the strength of the conclusions. A 10% reduction in physical inactivity would result in 6,000 fewer incident cases of disease, 2,000 fewer deaths, 25,000 fewer DALYs and provide gains in working days (114,000), days of home-based production (180,000) while conferring a AUD96 million reduction in health sector costs. Lifetime potential opportunity cost savings in workforce production (AUD12 million), home-based production (AUD71 million) and leisure-based production (AUD79 million) was estimated (total AUD162 million 95% uncertainty interval AUD136 million, AUD196 million). Opportunity cost savings and health benefits conservatively estimated from a reduction in population-level physical inactivity may be substantial. The largest savings will benefit individuals in the form of unpaid production and leisure gains, followed by the health sector, business and government.

Association between childhood allergic diseases, educational attainment and occupational status in later life: systematic review protocol

PubMed Central

von Kobyletzki, Laura Beate; Beckman, Linda; Smeeth, Liam; McKee, Martin; Abuabara, Katrina; Langan, Sinead

2017-01-01

Introduction Childhood allergic diseases may prevent affected children from achieving their academic potential. Potential mechanisms include absence from school due to illness and medical appointments. Experience of symptoms in classes or leisure time, and stigma associated with visible signs and symptoms, including skin disease, requirements for medication during school time or the need for specific diets, may also contribute to reduced educational attainment. Studies have investigated the association between specific allergic diseases and educational attainment. The aim of this study is to systematically review the literature on allergic diseases, educational attainment and occupational status, and if possible, calculate meta-analytic summary estimates for the associations. Methods Systematic electronic searches in Medline, EMBASE, Cochrane, Cumulative Index to Nursing & Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), PsycINFO and education Resources Information Center (ERIC); hand search in reference lists of included papers and conference reports; search for unpublished studies in clinical trial registers and the New York Academy of Medicine Grey Literature Report; data extraction; and study quality assessment (Newcastle-Ottawa Scale) will be performed. Analysis Data will be summarised descriptively, and meta-analysis including meta-regression to explore sources of heterogeneities will be performed if possible. Ethics and dissemination Dissemination in a peer-reviewed, open-access, international scientific journal is planned. PROSPERO registration number CRD42017058036. PMID:29025838

Evaluating the contribution of genetics and familial shared environment to common disease using the UK Biobank.

PubMed

Muñoz, María; Pong-Wong, Ricardo; Canela-Xandri, Oriol; Rawlik, Konrad; Haley, Chris S; Tenesa, Albert

2016-09-01

Genome-wide association studies have detected many loci underlying susceptibility to disease, but most of the genetic factors that contribute to disease susceptibility remain unknown. Here we provide evidence that part of the 'missing heritability' can be explained by an overestimation of heritability. We estimated the heritability of 12 complex human diseases using family history of disease in 1,555,906 individuals of white ancestry from the UK Biobank. Estimates using simple family-based statistical models were inflated on average by ∼47% when compared with those from structural equation modeling (SEM), which specifically accounted for shared familial environmental factors. In addition, heritabilities estimated using SNP data explained an average of 44.2% of the simple family-based estimates across diseases and an average of 57.3% of the SEM-estimated heritabilities, accounting for almost all of the SEM heritability for hypertension. Our results show that both genetics and familial environment make substantial contributions to familial clustering of disease.

Economic costs attributable to smoking in Hong Kong in 2011: a possible increase from 1998.

PubMed

Chen, Jing; McGhee, Sarah; Lam, Tai Hing

2017-11-15

Reduction in smoking prevalence does not necessarily reduce the costs of smoking as evidence shows in developed countries. We provide up-to-date estimates for direct and indirect costs attributable to smoking in Hong Kong in 2011 and compare with our 1998 estimates. We took a societal perspective to include lives and life years lost, health care costs and time lost from work in the costing. We followed guidelines on estimating costs of active smoking for those aged 35 years or above (35+) and costs due to SHS exposure for 35+, infants aged 12 months and under and children aged 15 and below. All costs are in US$. We estimated that 6154 deaths among 35+ in Hong Kong in 2011 were attributable to active smoking, an increase of 10% from 1998. Besides, 672 deaths were attributable to SHS exposure, i.e. 10% of the total 6826 smoking-attributable deaths. The estimate of productive life lost due to deaths from active smoking by those aged under 65 years in 2011 was $166 million, an increase of about 4% over the estimate in 1998. Our conservative estimate of the annual tobacco-related disease cost in 2011 was $716 million which accounted for 0.3% of GDP. If we added the value of attributable lives lost, the annual cost would be $4.7 billion. Despite the reduction in smoking prevalence, smoking-attributable disease still imposes a substantial economic burden on Hong Kong society. These findings support more stringent and effective tobacco control legislation, polices and measures. Current evidence shows reduction in smoking prevalence does not necessarily reduce the economic costs of smoking. Most studies in developed countries employed a societal perspective, including costs of productivity loss and indirect costs, but not all studies estimated costs associated with second-hand smoking (SHS). The present study estimated the total costs of smoking in Hong Kong including direct and indirect costs attributable to active smoking and to SHS exposure. Our study confirms the pattern of smoking epidemic in developed countries, forewarns the increasing economic burdens from tobacco, and provides East Asian countries with a prediction of their own future costs. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Yellow Fever in Africa: estimating the burden of disease and impact of mass vaccination from outbreak and serological data.

PubMed

Garske, Tini; Van Kerkhove, Maria D; Yactayo, Sergio; Ronveaux, Olivier; Lewis, Rosamund F; Staples, J Erin; Perea, William; Ferguson, Neil M

2014-05-01

Yellow fever is a vector-borne disease affecting humans and non-human primates in tropical areas of Africa and South America. While eradication is not feasible due to the wildlife reservoir, large scale vaccination activities in Africa during the 1940s to 1960s reduced yellow fever incidence for several decades. However, after a period of low vaccination coverage, yellow fever has resurged in the continent. Since 2006 there has been substantial funding for large preventive mass vaccination campaigns in the most affected countries in Africa to curb the rising burden of disease and control future outbreaks. Contemporary estimates of the yellow fever disease burden are lacking, and the present study aimed to update the previous estimates on the basis of more recent yellow fever occurrence data and improved estimation methods. Generalised linear regression models were fitted to a dataset of the locations of yellow fever outbreaks within the last 25 years to estimate the probability of outbreak reports across the endemic zone. Environmental variables and indicators for the surveillance quality in the affected countries were used as covariates. By comparing probabilities of outbreak reports estimated in the regression with the force of infection estimated for a limited set of locations for which serological surveys were available, the detection probability per case and the force of infection were estimated across the endemic zone. The yellow fever burden in Africa was estimated for the year 2013 as 130,000 (95% CI 51,000-380,000) cases with fever and jaundice or haemorrhage including 78,000 (95% CI 19,000-180,000) deaths, taking into account the current level of vaccination coverage. The impact of the recent mass vaccination campaigns was assessed by evaluating the difference between the estimates obtained for the current vaccination coverage and for a hypothetical scenario excluding these vaccination campaigns. Vaccination campaigns were estimated to have reduced the number of cases and deaths by 27% (95% CI 22%-31%) across the region, achieving up to an 82% reduction in countries targeted by these campaigns. A limitation of our study is the high level of uncertainty in our estimates arising from the sparseness of data available from both surveillance and serological surveys. With the estimation method presented here, spatial estimates of transmission intensity can be combined with vaccination coverage levels to evaluate the impact of past or proposed vaccination campaigns, thereby helping to allocate resources efficiently for yellow fever control. This method has been used by the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI Alliance) to estimate the potential impact of future vaccination campaigns.

Yellow Fever in Africa: Estimating the Burden of Disease and Impact of Mass Vaccination from Outbreak and Serological Data

PubMed Central

Garske, Tini; Van Kerkhove, Maria D.; Yactayo, Sergio; Ronveaux, Olivier; Lewis, Rosamund F.; Staples, J. Erin; Perea, William; Ferguson, Neil M.

2014-01-01

Background Yellow fever is a vector-borne disease affecting humans and non-human primates in tropical areas of Africa and South America. While eradication is not feasible due to the wildlife reservoir, large scale vaccination activities in Africa during the 1940s to 1960s reduced yellow fever incidence for several decades. However, after a period of low vaccination coverage, yellow fever has resurged in the continent. Since 2006 there has been substantial funding for large preventive mass vaccination campaigns in the most affected countries in Africa to curb the rising burden of disease and control future outbreaks. Contemporary estimates of the yellow fever disease burden are lacking, and the present study aimed to update the previous estimates on the basis of more recent yellow fever occurrence data and improved estimation methods. Methods and Findings Generalised linear regression models were fitted to a dataset of the locations of yellow fever outbreaks within the last 25 years to estimate the probability of outbreak reports across the endemic zone. Environmental variables and indicators for the surveillance quality in the affected countries were used as covariates. By comparing probabilities of outbreak reports estimated in the regression with the force of infection estimated for a limited set of locations for which serological surveys were available, the detection probability per case and the force of infection were estimated across the endemic zone. The yellow fever burden in Africa was estimated for the year 2013 as 130,000 (95% CI 51,000–380,000) cases with fever and jaundice or haemorrhage including 78,000 (95% CI 19,000–180,000) deaths, taking into account the current level of vaccination coverage. The impact of the recent mass vaccination campaigns was assessed by evaluating the difference between the estimates obtained for the current vaccination coverage and for a hypothetical scenario excluding these vaccination campaigns. Vaccination campaigns were estimated to have reduced the number of cases and deaths by 27% (95% CI 22%–31%) across the region, achieving up to an 82% reduction in countries targeted by these campaigns. A limitation of our study is the high level of uncertainty in our estimates arising from the sparseness of data available from both surveillance and serological surveys. Conclusions With the estimation method presented here, spatial estimates of transmission intensity can be combined with vaccination coverage levels to evaluate the impact of past or proposed vaccination campaigns, thereby helping to allocate resources efficiently for yellow fever control. This method has been used by the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI Alliance) to estimate the potential impact of future vaccination campaigns. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:24800812

Contemporary genetic testing in inherited cardiac disease: tools, ethical issues, and clinical applications.

PubMed

Girolami, Francesca; Frisso, Giulia; Benelli, Matteo; Crotti, Lia; Iascone, Maria; Mango, Ruggiero; Mazzaccara, Cristina; Pilichou, Kalliope; Arbustini, Eloisa; Tomberli, Benedetta; Limongelli, Giuseppe; Basso, Cristina; Olivotto, Iacopo

2018-01-01

: Inherited cardiac diseases comprise a wide and heterogeneous spectrum of diseases of the heart, including the cardiomyopathies and the arrhythmic diseases in structurally normal hearts, that is, channelopathies. With a combined estimated prevalence of 3% in the general population, these conditions represent a relevant epidemiological entity worldwide, and are a major cause of cardiac morbidity and mortality in the young. The extraordinary progress achieved in molecular genetics over the last three decades has unveiled the complex molecular basis of many familial cardiac conditions, paving the way for routine use of gene testing in clinical practice. In current practice, genetic testing can be used in a clinically affected patient to confirm diagnosis, or to formulate a differential diagnosis among overlapping phenotypes or between hereditary and acquired (nongenetic) forms of disease. Although genotype-phenotype correlations are generally unpredictable, a precise molecular diagnosis can help predict prognosis in specific patient subsets and may guide management. In clinically unaffected relatives, genetic cascade testing is recommended, after the initial identification of a pathogenic variation, with the aim of identifying asymptomatic relatives who might be at risk of disease-related complications, including unexpected sudden cardiac death. Future implications include the identification of novel therapeutic targets and development of tailored treatments including gene therapy. This document reflects the multidisciplinary, 'real-world' experience required when implementing genetic testing in cardiomyopathies and arrhythmic syndromes, along the recommendations of various guidelines.

Contemporary genetic testing in inherited cardiac disease: tools, ethical issues, and clinical applications

PubMed Central

Girolami, Francesca; Frisso, Giulia; Benelli, Matteo; Crotti, Lia; Iascone, Maria; Mango, Ruggiero; Mazzaccara, Cristina; Pilichou, Kalliope; Arbustini, Eloisa; Tomberli, Benedetta; Limongelli, Giuseppe; Basso, Cristina; Olivotto, Iacopo

2018-01-01

Inherited cardiac diseases comprise a wide and heterogeneous spectrum of diseases of the heart, including the cardiomyopathies and the arrhythmic diseases in structurally normal hearts, that is, channelopathies. With a combined estimated prevalence of 3% in the general population, these conditions represent a relevant epidemiological entity worldwide, and are a major cause of cardiac morbidity and mortality in the young. The extraordinary progress achieved in molecular genetics over the last three decades has unveiled the complex molecular basis of many familial cardiac conditions, paving the way for routine use of gene testing in clinical practice. In current practice, genetic testing can be used in a clinically affected patient to confirm diagnosis, or to formulate a differential diagnosis among overlapping phenotypes or between hereditary and acquired (nongenetic) forms of disease. Although genotype–phenotype correlations are generally unpredictable, a precise molecular diagnosis can help predict prognosis in specific patient subsets and may guide management. In clinically unaffected relatives, genetic cascade testing is recommended, after the initial identification of a pathogenic variation, with the aim of identifying asymptomatic relatives who might be at risk of disease-related complications, including unexpected sudden cardiac death. Future implications include the identification of novel therapeutic targets and development of tailored treatments including gene therapy. This document reflects the multidisciplinary, ‘real-world’ experience required when implementing genetic testing in cardiomyopathies and arrhythmic syndromes, along the recommendations of various guidelines. PMID:29176389

Celiac Disease Diagnosis and Management

PubMed Central

Leffler, Daniel

2012-01-01

Celiac disease is one of the most prevalent autoimmune gastrointestinal disorders but as the case of Ms. J illustrates, diagnosis is often delayed or missed. Based on serology studies, the prevalence of celiac disease in many populations is estimated to be approximately 1% and has been increasing steadily over the last 50 years. Evaluation for celiac disease is generally straightforward, and uses commonly available serologic tests, however the signs and symptoms of celiac disease are nonspecific and highly heterogeneous making diagnosis difficult. While celiac disease is often considered a mild disorder treatable with simple dietary changes, in reality celiac disease imparts considerable risks including reduced bone mineral density, impaired quality of life, and increased overall mortality. In addition, the gluten free diet is highly burdensome and can profoundly affect patients and their families. For these reasons, care of individuals with celiac disease requires prompt diagnosis and ongoing multidisciplinary management. PMID:21990301

Interpersonal violence: an important risk factor for disease and injury in South Africa.

PubMed

Norman, Rosana; Schneider, Michelle; Bradshaw, Debbie; Jewkes, Rachel; Abrahams, Naeemah; Matzopoulos, Richard; Vos, Theo

2010-12-01

Burden of disease estimates for South Africa have highlighted the particularly high rates of injuries related to interpersonal violence compared with other regions of the world, but these figures tell only part of the story. In addition to direct physical injury, violence survivors are at an increased risk of a wide range of psychological and behavioral problems. This study aimed to comprehensively quantify the excess disease burden attributable to exposure to interpersonal violence as a risk factor for disease and injury in South Africa. The World Health Organization framework of interpersonal violence was adapted. Physical injury mortality and disability were categorically attributed to interpersonal violence. In addition, exposure to child sexual abuse and intimate partner violence, subcategories of interpersonal violence, were treated as risk factors for disease and injury using counterfactual estimation and comparative risk assessment methods. Adjustments were made to account for the combined exposure state of having experienced both child sexual abuse and intimate partner violence. Of the 17 risk factors included in the South African Comparative Risk Assessment study, interpersonal violence was the second leading cause of healthy years of life lost, after unsafe sex, accounting for 1.7 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) or 10.5% of all DALYs (95% uncertainty interval: 8.5%-12.5%) in 2000. In women, intimate partner violence accounted for 50% and child sexual abuse for 32% of the total attributable DALYs. The implications of our findings are that estimates that include only the direct injury burden seriously underrepresent the full health impact of interpersonal violence. Violence is an important direct and indirect cause of health loss and should be recognized as a priority health problem as well as a human rights and social issue. This study highlights the difficulties in measuring the disease burden from interpersonal violence as a risk factor and the need to improve the epidemiological data on the prevalence and risks for the different forms of interpersonal violence to complete the picture. Given the extent of the burden, it is essential that innovative research be supported to identify social policy and other interventions that address both the individual and societal aspects of violence.

Estimation of financial burden due to oversupply of medications for chronic diseases.

PubMed

Chaiyakunapruk, Nathorn; Thanarungroj, Aekdisak; Cheewasithirungrueng, Nonglak; Srisupha-olarn, Warunee; Nimpitakpong, Piyarat; Dilokthornsakul, Piyameth; Jeanpeerapong, Napawan

2012-05-01

Given the potential of financial burden due to oversupply of medications for chronic diseases, this study aims to determine the prevalence of oversupply and to estimate the magnitude of financial loss in Thailand. Electronic patient database in a university-affiliated hospital in Thailand was used. Based on the utilization of top 5 high drug expenditure in 2005, the prevalence and the financial loss of oversupply (medication possession ratio [MPR] >1.00) were estimated. In total, 1893 patients were included in this study. The average age was 65.2 years and the majority were female (56%). The prevalence of oversupply ranged from 23.2% to 62.8%, whereas the annual financial loss ranged from US $4108 to US $10 517. The total amount of loss was US $32 903 or 3.77% of total medication costs. In summary, because of the high prevalence and associated high financial loss, oversupply of medication is a significant financial burden on hospitals and society.

Periodontal profile classes predict periodontal disease progression and tooth loss.

PubMed

Morelli, Thiago; Moss, Kevin L; Preisser, John S; Beck, James D; Divaris, Kimon; Wu, Di; Offenbacher, Steven

2018-02-01

Current periodontal disease taxonomies have limited utility for predicting disease progression and tooth loss; in fact, tooth loss itself can undermine precise person-level periodontal disease classifications. To overcome this limitation, the current group recently introduced a novel patient stratification system using latent class analyses of clinical parameters, including patterns of missing teeth. This investigation sought to determine the clinical utility of the Periodontal Profile Classes and Tooth Profile Classes (PPC/TPC) taxonomy for risk assessment, specifically for predicting periodontal disease progression and incident tooth loss. The analytic sample comprised 4,682 adult participants of two prospective cohort studies (Dental Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study and Piedmont Dental Study) with information on periodontal disease progression and incident tooth loss. The PPC/TPC taxonomy includes seven distinct PPCs (person-level disease pattern and severity) and seven TPCs (tooth-level disease). Logistic regression modeling was used to estimate relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association of these latent classes with disease progression and incident tooth loss, adjusting for examination center, race, sex, age, diabetes, and smoking. To obtain personalized outcome propensities, risk estimates associated with each participant's PPC and TPC were combined into person-level composite risk scores (Index of Periodontal Risk [IPR]). Individuals in two PPCs (PPC-G: Severe Disease and PPC-D: Tooth Loss) had the highest tooth loss risk (RR = 3.6; 95% CI = 2.6 to 5.0 and RR = 3.8; 95% CI = 2.9 to 5.1, respectively). PPC-G also had the highest risk for periodontitis progression (RR = 5.7; 95% CI = 2.2 to 14.7). Personalized IPR scores were positively associated with both periodontitis progression and tooth loss. These findings, upon additional validation, suggest that the periodontal/tooth profile classes and the derived personalized propensity scores provide clinical periodontal definitions that reflect disease patterns in the population and offer a useful system for patient stratification that is predictive for disease progression and tooth loss. © 2018 American Academy of Periodontology.

Testing practices and volume of non-Lyme tickborne diseases in the United States.

PubMed

Connally, Neeta P; Hinckley, Alison F; Feldman, Katherine A; Kemperman, Melissa; Neitzel, David; Wee, Siok-Bi; White, Jennifer L; Mead, Paul S; Meek, James I

2016-02-01

Large commercial laboratories in the United States were surveyed regarding the number of specimens tested for eight tickborne diseases in 2008. Seven large commercial laboratories reported testing a total of 2,927,881 specimens nationally (including Lyme disease). Of these, 495,585 specimens (17%) were tested for tickborne diseases other than Lyme disease. In addition to large commercial laboratories, another 1051 smaller commercial, hospital, and government laboratories in four states (CT, MD, MN, and NY) were surveyed regarding tickborne disease testing frequency, practices, and results. Ninety-two of these reported testing a total of 10,091 specimens for four tickborne diseases other than Lyme disease. We estimate the cost of laboratory diagnostic testing for non-Lyme disease tickborne diseases in 2008 to be $9.6 million. These data provide a baseline to evaluate trends in tickborne disease test utilization and insight into the burden of these diseases. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

The impact of disease stage on direct medical costs of HIV management: a review of the international literature.

PubMed

Levy, Adrian; Johnston, Karissa; Annemans, Lieven; Tramarin, Andrea; Montaner, Julio

2010-01-01

The global prevalence of HIV infection continues to grow, as a result of increasing incidence in some countries and improved survival where highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) is available. Growing healthcare expenditure and shifts in the types of medical resources used have created a greater need for accurate information on the costs of treatment. The objectives of this review were to compare published estimates of direct medical costs for treating HIV and to determine the impact of disease stage on such costs, based on CD4 cell count and plasma viral load. A literature review was conducted to identify studies meeting prespecified criteria for information content, including an original estimate of the direct medical costs of treating an HIV-infected individual, stratified based on markers of disease progression. Three unpublished cost-of-care studies were also included, which were applied in the economic analyses published in this supplement. A two-step procedure was used to convert costs into a common price year (2004) using country-specific health expenditure inflators and, to account for differences in currency, using health-specific purchasing power parities to express all cost estimates in US dollars. In all nine studies meeting the eligibility criteria, infected individuals were followed longitudinally and a 'bottom-up' approach was used to estimate costs. The same patterns were observed in all studies: the lowest CD4 categories had the highest cost; there was a sharp decrease in costs as CD4 cell counts rose towards 100 cells/mm³; and there was a more gradual decline in costs as CD4 cell counts rose above 100 cells/mm³. In the single study reporting cost according to viral load, it was shown that higher plasma viral load level (> 100,000 HIV-RNA copies/mL) was associated with higher costs of care. The results demonstrate that the cost of treating HIV disease increases with disease progression, particularly at CD4 cell counts below 100 cells/mm³. The suggestion that costs increase as the plasma viral load rises needs independent verification. This review of the literature further suggests that publicly available information on the cost of HAART by disease stage is inadequate. To address the information gap, multiple stakeholders (governments, pharmaceutical industry, private insurers and non-governmental organizations) have begun to establish and support an independent, high quality and standardized multicountry data collection for evaluating the cost of HIV management. An accurate, representative and relevant cost-estimate data resource would provide a valuable asset to healthcare planners that may lead to improved policy and decision-making in managing the HIV epidemic.

Modeling longitudinal data, I: principles of multivariate analysis.

PubMed

Ravani, Pietro; Barrett, Brendan; Parfrey, Patrick

2009-01-01

Statistical models are used to study the relationship between exposure and disease while accounting for the potential role of other factors' impact on outcomes. This adjustment is useful to obtain unbiased estimates of true effects or to predict future outcomes. Statistical models include a systematic component and an error component. The systematic component explains the variability of the response variable as a function of the predictors and is summarized in the effect estimates (model coefficients). The error element of the model represents the variability in the data unexplained by the model and is used to build measures of precision around the point estimates (confidence intervals).

The economic burden of a Salmonella Thompson outbreak caused by smoked salmon in the Netherlands, 2012-2013.

PubMed

Suijkerbuijk, Anita W M; Bouwknegt, Martijn; Mangen, Marie-Josee J; de Wit, G Ardine; van Pelt, Wilfrid; Bijkerk, Paul; Friesema, Ingrid H M

2017-04-01

In 2012, the Netherlands experienced the most extensive food-related outbreak of Salmonella ever recorded. It was caused by smoked salmon contaminated with Salmonella Thompson during processing. In total, 1149 cases of salmonellosis were laboratory confirmed and reported to RIVM. Twenty percent of cases was hospitalised and four cases were reported to be fatal. The purpose of this study was to estimate total costs of the Salmonella Thompson outbreak. Data from a case-control study were used to estimate the cost-of-illness of reported cases (i.e. healthcare costs, patient costs and production losses). Outbreak control costs were estimated based on interviews with staff from health authorities. Using the Dutch foodborne disease burden and cost-of-illness model, we estimated the number of underestimated cases and the associated cost-of-illness. The estimated number of cases, including reported and underestimated cases was 21 123. Adjusted for underestimation, the total cost-of-illness would be €6.8 million (95% CI €2.5-€16.7 million) with productivity losses being the main cost driver. Adding outbreak control costs, the total outbreak costs are estimated at €7.5 million. In the Netherlands, measures are taken to reduce salmonella concentrations in food, but detection of contamination during food processing remains difficult. As shown, Salmonella outbreaks have the potential for a relatively high disease and economic burden for society. Early warning and close cooperation between the industry, health authorities and laboratories is essential for rapid detection, control of outbreaks, and to reduce disease and economic burden. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Monetary Value of Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALY) among Patients with Cardiovascular Disease: a Willingness to Pay Study (WTP)

PubMed Central

Moradi, Najmeh; Rashidian, Arash; Rasekh, Hamid Reza; Olyaeemanesh, Alireza; Foroughi, Mahnoosh; Mohammadi, Teymoor

2017-01-01

The aim of this study was to estimate the monetary value of a QALY among patients with heart disease and to identify its determinants. A cross-sectional survey was conducted through face-to-face interview on 196 patients with cardiovascular disease from two heart hospitals in Tehran, Iran, to estimate the value of QALY using disaggregated and aggregated approaches. The EuroQol-5 Dimension (EQ-5D) questionnaire, Visual Analogue Scale (VAS), Time Trade-Off (TTO) and contingent valuation WTP techniques were employed, first to elicit patients’ preferences and then, to estimate WTP for QALY. The association of patients’ characteristics with WTP for QALY, was assessed through Heckman selection model. The Mean willingness to pay per QALY, estimated by the disaggregated approach ranged from 2,799 to 3599 US dollars. It is higher than the values, estimated from aggregated methods (USD 2,256 to 3,137). However, in both approaches, the values were less than one Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita of Iran. Significant variables were: Current health state, education, age, marital status, number of comorbidities, and household’s cost group. Our results challenge two major issues: the first, is a policy challenge which concerns the WHO recommendation to use less than 3 GDP per capita as a cost-effectiveness threshold value. The second, is an analytical challenge related to patients with zero QALY gain. More scrutiny is suggested on the issue of how patients with full health state valuation should be dealt with and what arbitrary value could be included in the estimation value of QALY when the disaggregated approach used. PMID:28979338

Monetary Value of Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALY) among Patients with Cardiovascular Disease: a Willingness to Pay Study (WTP).

PubMed

Moradi, Najmeh; Rashidian, Arash; Rasekh, Hamid Reza; Olyaeemanesh, Alireza; Foroughi, Mahnoosh; Mohammadi, Teymoor

2017-01-01

The aim of this study was to estimate the monetary value of a QALY among patients with heart disease and to identify its determinants. A cross-sectional survey was conducted through face-to-face interview on 196 patients with cardiovascular disease from two heart hospitals in Tehran, Iran, to estimate the value of QALY using disaggregated and aggregated approaches. The EuroQol-5 Dimension (EQ-5D) questionnaire, Visual Analogue Scale (VAS), Time Trade-Off (TTO) and contingent valuation WTP techniques were employed, first to elicit patients' preferences and then, to estimate WTP for QALY. The association of patients' characteristics with WTP for QALY, was assessed through Heckman selection model. The Mean willingness to pay per QALY, estimated by the disaggregated approach ranged from 2,799 to 3599 US dollars. It is higher than the values, estimated from aggregated methods (USD 2,256 to 3,137). However, in both approaches, the values were less than one Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita of Iran. Significant variables were: Current health state, education, age, marital status, number of comorbidities, and household's cost group. Our results challenge two major issues: the first, is a policy challenge which concerns the WHO recommendation to use less than 3 GDP per capita as a cost-effectiveness threshold value. The second, is an analytical challenge related to patients with zero QALY gain. More scrutiny is suggested on the issue of how patients with full health state valuation should be dealt with and what arbitrary value could be included in the estimation value of QALY when the disaggregated approach used.

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to indoor air pollution from household use of solid fuels in South Africa in 2000.

PubMed

Norman, Rosana; Barnes, Brendon; Mathee, Angela; Bradshaw, Debbie

2007-08-01

To estimate the burden of respiratory ill health in South African children and adults in 2000 from exposure to indoor air pollution associated with household use of solid fuels. World Health Organization comparative risk assessment (CRA) methodology was followed. The South African Census 2001 was used to derive the proportion of households using solid fuels for cooking and heating by population group. Exposure estimates were adjusted by a ventilation factor taking into account the general level of ventilation in the households. Population-attributable fractions were calculated and applied to revised burden of disease estimates for each population group. Monte Carlo simulation-modelling techniques were used for uncertainty analysis. South Africa. Black African, coloured, white and Indian children under 5 years of age and adults aged 30 years and older. Mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from acute lower respiratory infections in children under 5 years, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and lung cancer in adults 30 years and older. An estimated 20% of South African households were exposed to indoor smoke from solid fuels, with marked variation by population group. This exposure was estimated to have caused 2,489 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1,672 - 3,324) or 0.5% (95% uncertainty interval 0.3 - 0.6%) of all deaths in South Africa in 2000. The loss of healthy life years comprised a slightly smaller proportion of the total: 60,934 DALYs (95% uncertainty interval 41,170 - 81,246) or 0.4% of all DALYs (95% uncertainty interval 0.3 - 0.5%) in South Africa in 2000. Almost 99% of this burden occurred in the black African population. The most important interventions to reduce this impact include access to cleaner household fuels, improved stoves, and better ventilation.

[Financial cost of early rheumatoid arthritis in the first year of medical attention: three clinical scenarios in a third-tier university hospital in Colombia].

PubMed

Mora, Claudia; González, Andrés; Díaz, Jorge; Quintana, Gerardo

2009-03-01

In Colombia, the cost burden of chronic diseases is not well known, either globally or in localized areas of the health system. Rheumatoid arthritis is one of most common chronic diseases, and represents a high cost for the health system. The direct medical costs were estimated for rheumatoid arthritis patients in the in the first year of diagnosis at a level 3 university hospital in Colombia. Three therapy settings for early rheumatoid arthritis patients were established in the first year of diagnosis according to national and international guidelines. Each setting included treatment with disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs or biologic therapy based on disease severity as measured by Disease Activity Score 28. All direct medical costs were included: specialized medical care, diagnostic tests and drugs. Cost information was obtained from the Central Military Hospital finance department in Bogotá and the national manual of drug prices based on the "Farmaprecios" 2007 guide, a reference in general use by health institutions. Results. The average of cost of medical care in patients with mild, moderate and severe disease was US $1689, $1805 and $23,441 respectively. The recommended retail prices of the medicines published in "Farmaprecios" was US $1418, $1821 and $31,931. When the charges levied by several major health institutions were compared, substantial increases were noted, US $4936, $7716 and $123,661, respectively. Drug costs represented 86% of total cost, laboratory costs were 10% and medical attention was only 4%. Drugs costs were the principal component of the total direct medical cost, and it increased 40 times when a biological therapy is used. Complete economic evaluation studies are necesary to estimate the viability and clinical relevance of biological therapy for early rheumatoid arthritis.

Comparative risk assessment of the burden of disease from climate change.

PubMed

Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Woodruff, Rosalie

2006-12-01

The World Health Organization has developed standardized comparative risk assessment methods for estimating aggregate disease burdens attributable to different risk factors. These have been applied to existing and new models for a range of climate-sensitive diseases in order to estimate the effect of global climate change on current disease burdens and likely proportional changes in the future. The comparative risk assessment approach has been used to assess the health consequences of climate change worldwide, to inform decisions on mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, and in a regional assessment of the Oceania region in the Pacific Ocean to provide more location-specific information relevant to local mitigation and adaptation decisions. The approach places climate change within the same criteria for epidemiologic assessment as other health risks and accounts for the size of the burden of climate-sensitive diseases rather than just proportional change, which highlights the importance of small proportional changes in diseases such as diarrhea and malnutrition that cause a large burden. These exercises help clarify important knowledge gaps such as a relatively poor understanding of the role of nonclimatic factors (socioeconomic and other) that may modify future climatic influences and a lack of empiric evidence and methods for quantifying more complex climate-health relationships, which consequently are often excluded from consideration. These exercises highlight the need for risk assessment frameworks that make the best use of traditional epidemiologic methods and that also fully consider the specific characteristics of climate change. These include the longterm and uncertain nature of the exposure and the effects on multiple physical and biotic systems that have the potential for diverse and widespread effects, including high-impact events.

77 FR 13131 - Proposed Collection: Comment Request Post-Award Reporting Requirements Including New Research...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-03-05

... submitted to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for review and approval. Proposed Collection: Title... Administration, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ... and principal investigators. The annual reporting burden is as follows: Total Estimated Number of...

Disability Risks of Chronic Illnesses and Impairments. Disability Statistics Report 2.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

LaPlante, Mitchell P.

This report provides results from an investigation of comparative disability risks of specific chronic physical and mental illnesses, diseases, and impairments. National estimates are presented of the risks of chronic health conditions causing disability--including activity limitation, work disability, and need for assistance in basic life…

[Subclinical and established kidney disease in recently diagnosed hypertensive patients].

PubMed

Gómez-Marcos, Manuel Angel; Martínez-Salgado, Carlos; Grandes, Gonzalo; Recio-Rodríguez, José Ignacio; Castaño Sánchez, Yolanda; Rodríguez Sánchez, Emiliano; García-Ortiz, Luis

2010-03-06

To estimate renal disease in recently diagnosed hypertensive patients, and to identify factors related to renal disease. Cross-sectional study, with 425 hypertensive patients recently diagnosed in primary health care; renal disease was estimated with serum creatinine, albumin/creatinine index and glomerular filtration rate (GFR). We analyzed cardiovascular risk factors (CRF), subclinical organ injury and cardiovascular disease following the criteria of the 2007 European Guide of Hypertension. Average age: 58,96 +/- 12,73 years old, 63,3% male. We found dyslipemia in 80%, abdominal obesity in 49% and metabolic syndrome in 36% patients. These patients showed increased serum creatinine 3,3%, a reduction in GFR 9,6%, hidden renal disease 6,4%, microalbuminuria 7,5% and nephropathy 2,4%. Hypertensive patients with renal disease (17,88%) were older, with higher systolic pressure, higher incidence of metabolic syndrome, abnormal carotid intima-media thickness and ankle-arm index, and presence of cardiovascular disease. Variables associated with renal disease were metabolic syndrome (odds ratio = 11,12) and ankle-arm index (odds ratio = 17,55). Variables related to creatinina were sex, ankle-arm index and metabolic syndrome; variables related to GFR were sex, age, ankle-arm index, metabolic syndrome and body mass index (BMI); variables related with albumin/creatinine index included diabetes mellitus. Renal disease is detected in about 2 out of 10 hypertensive patients, when, besides serum creatinina, we analyze albumin/creatinine index and GFR. Metabolic syndrome and ankle-arm index are the main variables associated with renal disease. Copyright 2009 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

Periodontal disease burden and pathological changes in organs of dogs.

PubMed

Pavlica, Zlatko; Petelin, Milan; Juntes, Polona; Erzen, Damjan; Crossley, David A; Skaleric, Uros

2008-06-01

Bacterial plaque associated periodontal disease is the most common chronic infection in man and dogs. In man, there is an association between periodontal disease and myocardial infarction and stroke, while in dogs it has also been associated with changes in internal organs. Inflamed periodontal tissues present a 'periodontal disease burden' to the host and the extent of this inflammatory disease burden is likely to affect the degree of associated pathological change in distant organs. This hypothesis was investigated in dogs with naturally occurring periodontal disease. Post-mortem investigations including periodontal assessment, standard necropsy, and organ histology were performed on 44 mature toy and miniature Poodles (related, periodontitis predisposed breeds) that died naturally or were euthanized based on clinical disease. Animals with gross primary organ pathology were excluded. The periodontal disease burden was estimated from the total surface area of periodontal pocket epithelium using six measurements of probing depth for each tooth and the tooth circumferences. Ordinal logistic regression (OR) analysis established that for each square centimeter of periodontal disease burden there was a 1.4-times higher likelihood of greater changes being present in the left atrio-ventricular valves (OR = 1.43), plus 1.2 and 1.4 times higher likelihoodfor greater liver and kidney pathology (OR = 1.21; OR = 1.42), respectively The results show that there is a link between the estimated 'periodontal disease burden' resulting from plaque-bacteria associated periodontal disease and the level of internal pathology in this population, implying that periodontitis might contribute to the development of systemic pathology in dogs.

Clinical economics review: medical management of inflammatory bowel disease.

PubMed

Ward, F M; Bodger, K; Daly, M J; Heatley, R V

1999-01-01

Inflammatory bowel diseases, although they are uncommon and rarely fatal, typically present during the period of economically productive adult life. Patients may require extensive therapeutic intervention as a result of the chronic, relapsing nature of the diseases. Their medical management includes oral and topical 5-amino salicylic acid derivatives and corticosteroids, as well as antibiotics and immunosuppressive therapies. Assessing the cost-effectiveness of rival treatments requires valid, reliable global assessments of outcome which consider quality of life, as well as the usual clinical end-points. Macro-economic studies of the overall impact of inflammatory bowel disease on health care systems have so far been largely confined to North America, where the total annual US costs, both direct and indirect, incurred by the estimated 380 000-480 000 sufferers has been put at around US2bn. Drugs were estimated to account for only 10% of total costs, whereas surgery and hospitalization account for approximately half. Studies from Europe suggest that the proportion of patients with Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis who are capable of full time work is 75% and 90%, respectively. However, whilst only a minority of inflammatory bowel disease patients suffer chronic ill health and their life expectancy is normal, obtaining life assurance may be problematic, suggesting a misconception that inflammatory bowel disease frequently results in a major impact on an individual's economic productivity.

Does my patient have chronic Chagas disease? Development and temporal validation of a diagnostic risk score.

PubMed

Brasil, Pedro Emmanuel Alvarenga Americano do; Xavier, Sergio Salles; Holanda, Marcelo Teixeira; Hasslocher-Moreno, Alejandro Marcel; Braga, José Ueleres

2016-01-01

With the globalization of Chagas disease, unexperienced health care providers may have difficulties in identifying which patients should be examined for this condition. This study aimed to develop and validate a diagnostic clinical prediction model for chronic Chagas disease. This diagnostic cohort study included consecutive volunteers suspected to have chronic Chagas disease. The clinical information was blindly compared to serological tests results, and a logistic regression model was fit and validated. The development cohort included 602 patients, and the validation cohort included 138 patients. The Chagas disease prevalence was 19.9%. Sex, age, referral from blood bank, history of living in a rural area, recognizing the kissing bug, systemic hypertension, number of siblings with Chagas disease, number of relatives with a history of stroke, ECG with low voltage, anterosuperior divisional block, pathologic Q wave, right bundle branch block, and any kind of extrasystole were included in the final model. Calibration and discrimination in the development and validation cohorts (ROC AUC 0.904 and 0.912, respectively) were good. Sensitivity and specificity analyses showed that specificity reaches at least 95% above the predicted 43% risk, while sensitivity is at least 95% below the predicted 7% risk. Net benefit decision curves favor the model across all thresholds. A nomogram and an online calculator (available at http://shiny.ipec.fiocruz.br:3838/pedrobrasil/chronic_chagas_disease_prediction/) were developed to aid in individual risk estimation.

Capture-recapture methodology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gould, William R.; Kendall, William L.

2013-01-01

Capture-recapture methods were initially developed to estimate human population abundance, but since that time have seen widespread use for fish and wildlife populations to estimate and model various parameters of population, metapopulation, and disease dynamics. Repeated sampling of marked animals provides information for estimating abundance and tracking the fate of individuals in the face of imperfect detection. Mark types have evolved from clipping or tagging to use of noninvasive methods such as photography of natural markings and DNA collection from feces. Survival estimation has been emphasized more recently as have transition probabilities between life history states and/or geographical locations, even where some states are unobservable or uncertain. Sophisticated software has been developed to handle highly parameterized models, including environmental and individual covariates, to conduct model selection, and to employ various estimation approaches such as maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. With these user-friendly tools, complex statistical models for studying population dynamics have been made available to ecologists. The future will include a continuing trend toward integrating data types, both for tagged and untagged individuals, to produce more precise and robust population models.

THE ECONOMIC BURDEN OF NONCERVICAL HUMAN PAPILLOMAVIRUS DISEASE IN THE UNITED STATES

PubMed Central

Hu, Delphine; Goldie, Sue J.

2008-01-01

Objective The purpose of this study was: (1) to estimate the direct medical costs of 7 major noncervical human papillomavirus (HPV)-related conditions, including genital cancers, mouth and oropharyngeal cancers, anogenital warts, and juvenile-onset recurrent respiratory papillomatosis; and (2) to approximate the economic burden of noncervical HPV disease. Study Design For each condition, we synthesized the best available secondary data to produce lifetime cost per case estimates, expressed in present value. Using an incidence-based approach, we then applied these costs to develop an aggregrate measure of economic burden. Results The economic burden associated with noncervical HPV 6,11,16, and 18-related conditions occurring in Americans in the year 2003 approximates $418 million (range, $160 million-$1.6 billion). Conclusion The economic burden of noncervical HPV disease is substantial. Analyses that assess the value of investments in HPV prevention and control programs, should take into account the costs, morbidity, and mortality associated with these conditions. PMID:18455524

The Need for an Information Communication and Advocacy Strategy to Guide a Research Agenda to Address Burden of Invasive Nontyphoidal Salmonella Infections in Africa.

PubMed

Imran Khan, M; Freeman, Alexander J; Gessner, Bradford D; Sahastrabuddhe, Sushant

2015-11-01

Invasive nontyphoidal salmonellosis (iNTS) is often not recognized clinically, and prevention of iNTS is largely ignored by policy planners and decision makers. During 2010, an estimated 3.4 million cases and 681,316 deaths occurred worldwide due to iNTS, with the largest estimated disease burden in resource-limited areas of sub-Saharan Africa. These figures likely underestimate global burden for several reasons, further complicating efforts to raise awareness of iNTS. To increase disease recognition and facilitate development of interventions, a communication and advocacy plan should be developed and implemented by actors in different sectors of global health, including researchers and scientists, funders, vaccine manufacturers, civil society organizations, and government officials from highly affected countries. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The Use of Mobile Devices in Aiding Dietary Assessment and Evaluation

PubMed Central

Zhu, Fengqing; Bosch, Marc; Woo, Insoo; Kim, SungYe; Boushey, Carol J.; Ebert, David S.; Delp, Edward J.

2010-01-01

There is a growing concern about chronic diseases and other health problems related to diet including obesity and cancer. The need to accurately measure diet (what foods a person consumes) becomes imperative. Dietary intake provides valuable insights for mounting intervention programs for prevention of chronic diseases. Measuring accurate dietary intake is considered to be an open research problem in the nutrition and health fields. In this paper, we describe a novel mobile telephone food record that will provide an accurate account of daily food and nutrient intake. Our approach includes the use of image analysis tools for identification and quantification of food that is consumed at a meal. Images obtained before and after foods are eaten are used to estimate the amount and type of food consumed. The mobile device provides a unique vehicle for collecting dietary information that reduces the burden on respondents that are obtained using more classical approaches for dietary assessment. We describe our approach to image analysis that includes the segmentation of food items, features used to identify foods, a method for automatic portion estimation, and our overall system architecture for collecting the food intake information. PMID:20862266

DNetDB: The human disease network database based on dysfunctional regulation mechanism.

PubMed

Yang, Jing; Wu, Su-Juan; Yang, Shao-You; Peng, Jia-Wei; Wang, Shi-Nuo; Wang, Fu-Yan; Song, Yu-Xing; Qi, Ting; Li, Yi-Xue; Li, Yuan-Yuan

2016-05-21

Disease similarity study provides new insights into disease taxonomy, pathogenesis, which plays a guiding role in diagnosis and treatment. The early studies were limited to estimate disease similarities based on clinical manifestations, disease-related genes, medical vocabulary concepts or registry data, which were inevitably biased to well-studied diseases and offered small chance of discovering novel findings in disease relationships. In other words, genome-scale expression data give us another angle to address this problem since simultaneous measurement of the expression of thousands of genes allows for the exploration of gene transcriptional regulation, which is believed to be crucial to biological functions. Although differential expression analysis based methods have the potential to explore new disease relationships, it is difficult to unravel the upstream dysregulation mechanisms of diseases. We therefore estimated disease similarities based on gene expression data by using differential coexpression analysis, a recently emerging method, which has been proved to be more potential to capture dysfunctional regulation mechanisms than differential expression analysis. A total of 1,326 disease relationships among 108 diseases were identified, and the relevant information constituted the human disease network database (DNetDB). Benefiting from the use of differential coexpression analysis, the potential common dysfunctional regulation mechanisms shared by disease pairs (i.e. disease relationships) were extracted and presented. Statistical indicators, common disease-related genes and drugs shared by disease pairs were also included in DNetDB. In total, 1,326 disease relationships among 108 diseases, 5,598 pathways, 7,357 disease-related genes and 342 disease drugs are recorded in DNetDB, among which 3,762 genes and 148 drugs are shared by at least two diseases. DNetDB is the first database focusing on disease similarity from the viewpoint of gene regulation mechanism. It provides an easy-to-use web interface to search and browse the disease relationships and thus helps to systematically investigate etiology and pathogenesis, perform drug repositioning, and design novel therapeutic interventions.Database URL: http://app.scbit.org/DNetDB/ #.

Longitudinal Andhra Pradesh Eye Disease Study: rationale, study design and research methodology.

PubMed

Khanna, Rohit C; Murthy, Gudlavalleti Vs; Marmamula, Srinivas; Mettla, Asha Latha; Giridhar, Pyda; Banerjee, Seema; Shekhar, Konegari; Chakrabarti, Subhabrata; Gilbert, Clare; Rao, Gullapalli N

2016-03-01

The rationale, objectives, study design and procedures for the longitudinal Andhra Pradesh Eye Disease Study are described. A longitudinal cohort study was carried out. Participants include surviving cohort from the rural component of Andhra Pradesh Eye Disease Study. During 1996-2000, Andhra Pradesh Eye Disease Survey was conducted in three rural (n = 7771) and one urban (n = 2522) areas (now called Andhra Pradesh Eye Disease Study 1). In 2009-2010, a feasibility exercise (Andhra Pradesh Eye Disease Study 2) for a longitudinal study (Andhra Pradesh Eye Disease Study 3) was undertaken in the rural clusters only, as urban clusters no longer existed. In Andhra Pradesh Eye Disease Study 3, a detailed interview will be carried out to collect data on sociodemographic factors, ocular and systemic history, risk factors, visual function, knowledge of eye diseases and barriers to accessing services. All participants will also undergo a comprehensive eye examination including photography of lens, optic disc and retina, Optic Coherence Tomography of the posterior segment, anthropometry, blood pressure and frailty measures. Measures include estimates of the incidence of visual impairment and age-related eye disease (lens opacities, glaucoma and age-related macular degeneration) and the progression of eye disease (lens opacities and myopia) and associated risk factors. Of the 7771 respondents examined in rural areas in Andhra Pradesh Eye Disease Study 1, 5447 (70.1%) participants were traced in Andhra Pradesh Eye Disease Study 2. These participants will be re-examined. Andhra Pradesh Eye Disease Study 3 will provide data on the incidence and progression of visual impairment and major eye diseases and their associated risk factors in India. The study will provide further evidence to aid planning eye care services. © 2015 Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Ophthalmologists.

Understanding uncertainty in temperature effects on vector-borne disease: a Bayesian approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Leah R.; Ben-Horin, Tal; Lafferty, Kevin D.; McNally, Amy; Mordecai, Erin A.; Paaijmans, Krijn P.; Pawar, Samraat; Ryan, Sadie J.

2015-01-01

Extrinsic environmental factors influence the distribution and population dynamics of many organisms, including insects that are of concern for human health and agriculture. This is particularly true for vector-borne infectious diseases like malaria, which is a major source of morbidity and mortality in humans. Understanding the mechanistic links between environment and population processes for these diseases is key to predicting the consequences of climate change on transmission and for developing effective interventions. An important measure of the intensity of disease transmission is the reproductive number R0. However, understanding the mechanisms linking R0 and temperature, an environmental factor driving disease risk, can be challenging because the data available for parameterization are often poor. To address this, we show how a Bayesian approach can help identify critical uncertainties in components of R0 and how this uncertainty is propagated into the estimate of R0. Most notably, we find that different parameters dominate the uncertainty at different temperature regimes: bite rate from 15°C to 25°C; fecundity across all temperatures, but especially ~25–32°C; mortality from 20°C to 30°C; parasite development rate at ~15–16°C and again at ~33–35°C. Focusing empirical studies on these parameters and corresponding temperature ranges would be the most efficient way to improve estimates of R0. While we focus on malaria, our methods apply to improving process-based models more generally, including epidemiological, physiological niche, and species distribution models.

Toward a functional definition of a "rare disease" for regulatory authorities and funding agencies.

PubMed

Clarke, Joe T R; Coyle, Doug; Evans, Gerald; Martin, Janet; Winquist, Eric

2014-12-01

The designation of a disease as "rare" is associated with some substantial benefits for companies involved in new drug development, including expedited review by regulatory authorities and relaxed criteria for reimbursement. How "rare disease" is defined therefore has major financial implications, both for pharmaceutical companies and for insurers or public drug reimbursement programs. All existing definitions are based, somewhat arbitrarily, on disease incidence or prevalence. What is proposed here is a functional definition of rare based on an assessment of the feasibility of measuring the efficacy of a new treatment in conventional randomized controlled trials, to inform regulatory authorities and funding agencies charged with assessing new therapies being considered for public funding. It involves a five-step process, involving significant negotiations between patient advocacy groups, pharmaceutical companies, physicians, and public drug reimbursement programs, designed to establish the feasibility of carrying out a randomized controlled trial with sufficient statistical power to show a clinically significant treatment effect. The steps are as follows: 1) identification of a specific disease, including appropriate genetic definition; 2) identification of clinically relevant outcomes to evaluate efficacy; 3) establishment of the inherent variability of measurements of clinically relevant outcomes; 4) calculation of the sample size required to assess the efficacy of a new treatment with acceptable statistical power; and 5) estimation of the difficulty of recruiting an adequate sample size given the estimated prevalence or incidence of the disorder in the population and the inclusion criteria to be used. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Understanding Toxoplasmosis in the United States Through “Large Data” Analyses

PubMed Central

Lykins, Joseph; Wang, Kanix; Wheeler, Kelsey; Clouser, Fatima; Dixon, Ashtyn; El Bissati, Kamal; Zhou, Ying; Lyttle, Christopher; Rzhetsky, Andrey; McLeod, Rima

2016-01-01

Background. Toxoplasma gondii infection causes substantial morbidity and mortality in the United States, and infects approximately one-third of persons globally. Clinical manifestations vary. Seropositivity is associated with neurologic diseases and malignancies. There are few objective data concerning US incidence and distribution of toxoplasmosis. Methods. Truven Health MarketScan Database and International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9) codes, including treatment specific to toxoplasmosis, identified patients with this disease. Spatiotemporal distribution and patterns of disease manifestation were analyzed. Comorbidities between patients and matched controls were compared. Results. Between 2003 and 2012, 9260 patients had ICD-9 codes for toxoplasmosis. This database of patients with ICD-9 codes includes 15% of those in the United States, excluding patients with no or public insurance. Thus, assuming that demographics do not change incidence, the calculated total is 61 700 or 6856 patients per year. Disease was more prevalent in the South. Mean age at diagnosis was 37.5 ± 15.5 years; 2.4% were children aged 0–2 years, likely congenitally infected. Forty-one percent were male, and 73% of women were of reproductive age. Of identified patients, 38% had eye disease and 12% presented with other serious manifestations, including central nervous system and visceral organ damage. Toxoplasmosis was statistically associated with substantial comorbidities, including human immunodeficiency virus, autoimmune diseases, and neurologic diseases. Conclusions. Toxoplasmosis causes morbidity and mortality in the United States. Our analysis of private insurance records missed certain at-risk populations and revealed fewer cases of retinal disease than previously estimated, suggesting undercoding, underreporting, undertreating, or differing demographics of those with eye disease. Mandatory reporting of infection to health departments and gestational screening could improve care and facilitate detection of epidemics and, thereby, public health interventions. PMID:27353665

Estimating the number of HIV-infected injection drug users in Bangkok: a capture--recapture method.

PubMed

Mastro, T D; Kitayaporn, D; Weniger, B G; Vanichseni, S; Laosunthorn, V; Uneklabh, T; Uneklabh, C; Choopanya, K; Limpakarnjanarat, K

1994-07-01

The purpose of the study was to estimate the number of injection drug users infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in Bangkok to allow planning for health services for this population. A two-sample capture-recapture method was used. The first capture listed all persons on methadone treatment for opiate addiction from April 17 through May 17, 1991, at 18 facilities in Bangkok. The second capture involved urine testing of persons held at 72 Bangkok police stations from June 3 through September 30, 1991. Persons whose urine tests were positive for opiate metabolites or methadone were included on the second list. The first capture comprised 4064 persons and the recapture 1540 persons. There were 171 persons included on both lists, yielding an estimate of 36,600 opiate users in Bangkok. Existing data indicate that 89% of opiate users in Bangkok inject drugs and that about one third are infected with HIV, yielding an estimate of approximately 12,000 HIV-infected injection drug users in Bangkok in 1991. During the 1990s the number of cases of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) and other HIV-related diseases, including tuberculosis, in the population of HIV-infected injection drug users in Bangkok will increase dramatically, placing new demands on existing health care facilities. The capture-recapture method may be useful in estimating difficult-to-count populations, including injection drug users.

Computer-aided diagnosis with potential application to rapid detection of disease outbreaks.

PubMed

Burr, Tom; Koster, Frederick; Picard, Rick; Forslund, Dave; Wokoun, Doug; Joyce, Ed; Brillman, Judith; Froman, Phil; Lee, Jack

2007-04-15

Our objectives are to quickly interpret symptoms of emergency patients to identify likely syndromes and to improve population-wide disease outbreak detection. We constructed a database of 248 syndromes, each syndrome having an estimated probability of producing any of 85 symptoms, with some two-way, three-way, and five-way probabilities reflecting correlations among symptoms. Using these multi-way probabilities in conjunction with an iterative proportional fitting algorithm allows estimation of full conditional probabilities. Combining these conditional probabilities with misdiagnosis error rates and incidence rates via Bayes theorem, the probability of each syndrome is estimated. We tested a prototype of computer-aided differential diagnosis (CADDY) on simulated data and on more than 100 real cases, including West Nile Virus, Q fever, SARS, anthrax, plague, tularaemia and toxic shock cases. We conclude that: (1) it is important to determine whether the unrecorded positive status of a symptom means that the status is negative or that the status is unknown; (2) inclusion of misdiagnosis error rates produces more realistic results; (3) the naive Bayes classifier, which assumes all symptoms behave independently, is slightly outperformed by CADDY, which includes available multi-symptom information on correlations; as more information regarding symptom correlations becomes available, the advantage of CADDY over the naive Bayes classifier should increase; (4) overlooking low-probability, high-consequence events is less likely if the standard output summary is augmented with a list of rare syndromes that are consistent with observed symptoms, and (5) accumulating patient-level probabilities across a larger population can aid in biosurveillance for disease outbreaks. c 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

NASA Space Radiation Protection Strategies: Risk Assessment and Permissible Exposure Limits

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huff, J. L.; Patel, Z. S.; Simonsen, L. C.

2017-01-01

Permissible exposure limits (PELs) for short-term and career astronaut exposures to space radiation have been set and approved by NASA with the goal of protecting astronauts against health risks associated with ionizing radiation exposure. Short term PELs are intended to prevent clinically significant deterministic health effects, including performance decrements, which could threaten astronaut health and jeopardize mission success. Career PELs are implemented to control late occurring health effects, including a 3% risk of exposure induced death (REID) from cancer, and dose limits are used to prevent cardiovascular and central nervous system diseases. For radiation protection, meeting the cancer PEL is currently the design driver for galactic cosmic ray and solar particle event shielding, mission duration, and crew certification (e.g., 1-year ISS missions). The risk of cancer development is the largest known long-term health consequence following radiation exposure, and current estimates for long-term health risks due to cardiovascular diseases are approximately 30% to 40% of the cancer risk for exposures above an estimated threshold (Deep Space one-year and Mars missions). Large uncertainties currently exist in estimating the health risks of space radiation exposure. Improved understanding through radiobiology and physics research allows increased accuracy in risk estimation and is essential for ensuring astronaut health as well as for controlling mission costs, optimization of mission operations, vehicle design, and countermeasure assessment. We will review the Space Radiation Program Element's research strategies to increase accuracy in risk models and to inform development and validation of the permissible exposure limits.

Olfactory deposition of inhaled nanoparticles in humans

PubMed Central

Garcia, Guilherme J. M.; Schroeter, Jeffry D.; Kimbell, Julia S.

2016-01-01

Context Inhaled nanoparticles can migrate to the brain via the olfactory bulb, as demonstrated in experiments in several animal species. This route of exposure may be the mechanism behind the correlation between air pollution and human neurodegenerative diseases, including Alzheimer’s disease and Parkinson’s disease. Objectives This manuscript aims to (1) estimate the dose of inhaled nanoparticles that deposit in the human olfactory epithelium during nasal breathing at rest and (2) compare the olfactory dose in humans with our earlier dose estimates for rats. Materials and methods An anatomically-accurate model of the human nasal cavity was developed based on computed tomography scans. The deposition of 1–100 nm particles in the whole nasal cavity and its olfactory region were estimated via computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations. Our CFD methods were validated by comparing our numerical predictions for whole-nose deposition with experimental data and previous CFD studies in the literature. Results In humans, olfactory dose of inhaled nanoparticles is highest for 1–2 nm particles with approximately 1% of inhaled particles depositing in the olfactory region. As particle size grows to 100 nm, olfactory deposition decreases to 0.01% of inhaled particles. Discussion and conclusion Our results suggest that the percentage of inhaled particles that deposit in the olfactory region is lower in humans than in rats. However, olfactory dose per unit surface area is estimated to be higher in humans due to their larger minute volume. These dose estimates are important for risk assessment and dose-response studies investigating the neurotoxicity of inhaled nanoparticles. PMID:26194036

Economic Valuation of the Global Burden of Cleft Disease Averted by a Large Cleft Charity.

PubMed

Poenaru, Dan; Lin, Dan; Corlew, Scott

2016-05-01

This study attempts to quantify the burden of disease averted through the global surgical work of a large cleft charity, and estimate the economic impact of this effort over a 10-year period. Anonymized data of all primary cleft lip and cleft palate procedures in the Smile Train database were analyzed and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) calculated using country-specific life expectancy tables, established disability weights, and estimated success of surgery and residual disability probabilities; multiple age weighting and discounting permutations were included. Averted DALYs were calculated and gross national income (GNI) per capita was then multiplied by averted DALYs to estimate economic gains. 548,147 primary cleft procedures were performed in 83 countries between 2001 and 2011. 547,769 records contained complete data available for the study; 58 % were cleft lip and 42 % cleft palate. Averted DALYs ranged between 1.46 and 4.95 M. The mean economic impact ranged between USD 5510 and 50,634 per person. This corresponded to a global economic impact of between USD 3.0B and 27.7B USD, depending on the DALY and GNI values used. The estimated cost of providing these procedures based on an average reimbursement rate was USD 197M (0.7-6.6 % of the estimated impact). The immense economic gain realized through procedures focused on a small proportion of the surgical burden of disease highlights the importance and cost-effectiveness of surgical treatment globally. This methodology can be applied to evaluate interventions for other conditions, and for evidence-based health care resource allocation.

On the Performance of T2∗ Correction Methods for Quantification of Hepatic Fat Content

PubMed Central

Reeder, Scott B.; Bice, Emily K.; Yu, Huanzhou; Hernando, Diego; Pineda, Angel R.

2014-01-01

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease is the most prevalent chronic liver disease in Western societies. MRI can quantify liver fat, the hallmark feature of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, so long as multiple confounding factors including T2∗ decay are addressed. Recently developed MRI methods that correct for T2∗ to improve the accuracy of fat quantification either assume a common T2∗ (single- T2∗) for better stability and noise performance or independently estimate the T2∗ for water and fat (dual- T2∗) for reduced bias, but with noise performance penalty. In this study, the tradeoff between bias and variance for different T2∗ correction methods is analyzed using the Cramér-Rao bound analysis for biased estimators and is validated using Monte Carlo experiments. A noise performance metric for estimation of fat fraction is proposed. Cramér-Rao bound analysis for biased estimators was used to compute the metric at different echo combinations. Optimization was performed for six echoes and typical T2∗ values. This analysis showed that all methods have better noise performance with very short first echo times and echo spacing of ∼π/2 for single- T2∗ correction, and ∼2π/3 for dual- T2∗ correction. Interestingly, when an echo spacing and first echo shift of ∼π/2 are used, methods without T2∗ correction have less than 5% bias in the estimates of fat fraction. PMID:21661045

Screening for Chlamydia trachomatis: a systematic review of the economic evaluations and modelling

PubMed Central

Roberts, T E; Robinson, S; Barton, P; Bryan, S; Low, N

2006-01-01

Objective To review systematically and critically, evidence used to derive estimates of costs and cost effectiveness of chlamydia screening. Methods Systematic review. A search of 11 electronic bibliographic databases from the earliest date available to August 2004 using keywords including chlamydia, pelvic inflammatory disease, economic evaluation, and cost. We included studies of chlamydia screening in males and/or females over 14 years, including studies of diagnostic tests, contact tracing, and treatment as part of a screening programme. Outcomes included cases of chlamydia identified and major outcomes averted. We assessed methodological quality and the modelling approach used. Results Of 713 identified papers we included 57 formal economic evaluations and two cost studies. Most studies found chlamydia screening to be cost effective, partner notification to be an effective adjunct, and testing with nucleic acid amplification tests, and treatment with azithromycin to be cost effective. Methodological problems limited the validity of these findings: most studies used static models that are inappropriate for infectious diseases; restricted outcomes were used as a basis for policy recommendations; and high estimates of the probability of chlamydia associated complications might have overestimated cost effectiveness. Two high quality dynamic modelling studies found opportunistic screening to be cost effective but poor reporting or uncertainty about complication rates make interpretation difficult. Conclusion The inappropriate use of static models to study interventions to prevent a communicable disease means that uncertainty remains about whether chlamydia screening programmes are cost effective or not. The results of this review can be used by health service managers in the allocation of resources, and health economists and other researchers who are considering further research in this area. PMID:16731666

A systematic review with meta-analysis of the prevalence of gastroesophageal reflux in congenital diaphragmatic hernia pediatric survivors.

PubMed

Arcos-Machancoses, J V; Ruiz Hernández, C; Martin de Carpi, J; Pinillos Pisón, S

2018-02-09

Congenital diaphragmatic hernia survivors are a well-known group at risk for developing gastroesophageal reflux disease that may be particularly long-term severe. The aim of this study is to provide a systematic review of the prevalence of gastroesophageal reflux in infant and children survivors treated for congenital diaphragmatic hernia.Electronic and manual searches were performed with keywords related to congenital diaphragmatic hernia, gastroesophageal reflux disease, and epidemiology terms. Summary estimates of the prevalence were calculated. Effect model was chosen depending on heterogeneity (I2). Factors potentially related with the prevalence, including study quality or the diagnostic strategy followed, were assessed by subgroup and meta-regression analyses. Risk of publication bias was studied by funnel plot analysis and the Egger test.The search yielded 140 articles, 26 of which were included in the analyses and provided 34 estimates of prevalence: 21 in patients aged 12 months or younger, and 13 in older children. The overall prevalence of gastroesophageal reflux disease in infants was 52.7% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 43.2% to 62.1%, I2 = 88.7%) and, in children over 1 year old, 35.1% (95% CI: 25.4% to 45.3%, I2 = 73.5%). Significant clinical and statistical heterogeneity was found. The strategy chosen for gastroesophageal reflux diagnosis influenced the reported prevalence. The only estimate obtained with a systematic use of multichannel intraluminal impedance provided a higher prevalence in both age groups: 83.3% (95% CI: 67.2% to 93.6%) and 61.1% (95% CI: 43.5% to 76.9%) respectively. This last prevalence did not significantly differ from that obtained using only low risk of bias estimates.As a conclusion, gastroesophageal reflux disease is commonly observed after congenital diaphragmatic hernia repair and is almost constantly present in the first months of life. It may be underdiagnosed if systematically esophageal monitoring is not performed. This should be considered when proposing follow-up and management protocols for congenital diaphragmatic hernia survivors. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of International Society for Diseases of the Esophagus. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

A systematic review of the prevalence and attribution of human papillomavirus types among cervical, vaginal, and vulvar precancers and cancers in the United States.

PubMed

Insinga, Ralph P; Liaw, Kai-Li; Johnson, Lisa G; Madeleine, Margaret M

2008-07-01

To describe prevalence and estimated attribution of human papillomavirus (HPV) types in U.S. cervical, vaginal, and vulvar precancers and cancers. U.S. studies reporting HPV typing for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN), vulvar intraepithelial neoplasia (VIN), and vaginal intraepithelial neoplasia (VaIN) and/or invasive cancers of those sites were gathered from the PubMed database (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sites/entrez/). Selected studies had PCR testing data for > or =10 cases for a disease endpoint. Analytic methods augmented prior reviews of cervical disease with an updated and expanded analysis (including vulvar and vaginal disease), new selection criteria for specimens, and adjustment for histologic type, where possible, among pooled cancer cases. In addition, for analyses of estimated attribution of HPV types, we incorporated accounting methods for lesions infected with multiple HPV types. Data from 22 U.S. studies meeting review eligibility criteria were tabulated. Following adjustment for the presence of multiple HPV types in a single specimen, the top two HPV types contributing to disease were CIN 1 (HPV 16/66; 15.3%), CIN 2/3 (HPV 16/31; 61.9%), cervical cancer (HPV 16/18; 79.2%), VIN 1 (HPV 6/11; 41.7%), VIN 3 (HPV 16/18; 84.0%), vulvar cancer (HPV 16/33; 55.5%), VaIN 3 (HPV 16/18; 65.1%), and vaginal cancer (HPV 16/18; 72.7%). The HPV type distribution and proportion of cases testing positive for any HPV type were observed to vary among U.S. cervical, vulvar, and vaginal neoplasias and by grade of disease. Adjustment for the presence of multitype HPV infections can have an important effect on the estimated attribution of HPV types to disease, particularly for types other than HPV 16.

A Systematic Review of the Prevalence and Attribution of Human Papillomavirus Types Among Cervical, Vaginal and Vulvar Pre-cancers and Cancers in the United States

PubMed Central

Insinga, Ralph P.; Liaw, Kai-Li; Johnson, Lisa G.; Madeleine, Margaret M.

2008-01-01

Objectives To describe (1) prevalence and (2) estimated attribution of human papillomavirus (HPV) types in U.S. cervical, vaginal and vulvar precancers and cancers. Methods U.S. studies reporting HPV typing for cervical (CIN), vulvar (VIN) and vaginal (VaIN) intraepithelial neoplasias and/or invasive cancers of those sites were gathered from the PubMed database (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sites/entrez/). Selected studies had polymerase chain reaction testing data for ≥10 cases for a disease endpoint. Analytic methods augmented prior reviews of cervical disease with an updated and expanded analysis (including vulvar and vaginal disease), new selection criteria for specimens, and adjustment for histologic type, where possible, among pooled cancer cases. In addition, for analyses of estimated attribution of HPV types, we incorporated accounting methods for lesions infected with multiple HPV types. Results Data from 22 U.S. studies meeting review eligibility criteria were tabulated. Following adjustment for the presence of multiple HPV types in a single specimen, the top two HPV types contributing to disease were: CIN 1 (HPV 16/66) [15.3%], CIN 2/3 (16/31) [61.9%], cervical cancer (16/18) [79.2%], VIN 1 (6/11) [41.7%], VIN 3 (16/18) [84.0%], vulvar cancer (16/33) [55.5%], VaIN 3 (16/18) [65.1%], vaginal cancer (16/18) [72.7%]. Conclusions The HPV type distribution and proportion of cases testing positive for any HPV type were observed to vary among U.S. cervical, vulvar and vaginal neoplasias and by grade of disease. Adjustment for the presence of multi-type HPV infections can have an important impact on the estimated attribution of HPV types to disease, particularly for types other than HPV 16. PMID:18628412

The time-course of protection of the RTS,S vaccine against malaria infections and clinical disease.

PubMed

Penny, Melissa A; Pemberton-Ross, Peter; Smith, Thomas A

2015-11-04

Recent publications have reported follow-up of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine candidate Phase III trials at 11 African sites for 32 months (or longer). This includes site- and time-specific estimates of incidence and efficacy against clinical disease with four different vaccination schedules. These data allow estimation of the time-course of protection against infection associated with two different ages of vaccination, both with and without a booster dose. Using an ensemble of individual-based stochastic models, each trial cohort in the Phase III trial was simulated assuming many different hypothetical profiles for the vaccine efficacy against infection in time, for both the primary course and boosting dose and including the potential for either exponential or non-exponential decay. The underlying profile of protection was determined by Bayesian fitting of these model predictions to the site- and time-specific incidence of clinical malaria over 32 months (or longer) of follow-up. Using the same stochastic models, projections of clinical efficacy in each of the sites were modelled and compared to available observed trial data. The initial protection of RTS,S immediately following three doses is estimated as providing an efficacy against infection of 65 % (when immunizing infants aged 6-12 weeks old) and 91 % (immunizing children aged 5-17 months old at first vaccination). This protection decays relatively rapidly, with an approximately exponential decay for the 6-12 weeks old cohort (with a half-life of 7.2 months); for the 5-17 months old cohort a biphasic decay with a similar half-life is predicted, with an initial rapid decay followed by a slower decay. The boosting dose was estimated to return protection to an efficacy against infection of 50-55 % for both cohorts. Estimates of clinical efficacy by trial site are consistent with those reported in the trial for all cohorts. The site- and time-specific clinical observations from the RTS,S/AS01 trial data allowed a reasonably precise estimation of the underlying vaccine protection against infection which is consistent with common underlying efficacy and decay rates across the trial sites. This calibration suggests that the decay in efficacy against clinical disease is more rapid than that against infection because of age-shifts in the incidence of disease. The dynamical models predict that clinical effectiveness will continue to decay and that likely effects beyond the time-scale of the trial will be small.

Remote Sensing Proxies for Vector-borne Disease Risk Assessment (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anyamba, A.

2010-12-01

The spread of re-emerging vector-borne diseases such Rift Valley fever (RVF) and Chikungunya (CHIK) is a major issue of global public health concern. This combined with a variable climate regime has opened an avenue for satellite remote sensing to contribute towards a comprehensive understanding of some of the drivers influencing such vector-borne disease outbreaks. Satellite derived measurements such as vegetation indices, rainfall estimates, and land-surface temperature; can be used to infer the complex mosaic of factors that influence ecology and habitat suitability, emergence and population dynamics of disease vectors. However, there are still some gaps in application including appropriate temporal resolution of remote sensing measurements, the complexity of the virus-vector-disease-ecology system and human components that contribute to disease risk that need to be addressed. Geographic Distribution of Recent Rift Valley fever oubreaks

Accuracy of Herdsmen Reporting versus Serologic Testing for Estimating Foot-and-Mouth Disease Prevalence

PubMed Central

Handel, Ian G.; Tanya, Vincent N.; Hamman, Saidou M.; Nfon, Charles; Bergman, Ingrid E.; Malirat, Viviana; Sorensen, Karl J.; Bronsvoort, Barend M. de C.

2014-01-01

Herdsman-reported disease prevalence is widely used in veterinary epidemiologic studies, especially for diseases with visible external lesions; however, the accuracy of such reports is rarely validated. Thus, we used latent class analysis in a Bayesian framework to compare sensitivity and specificity of herdsman reporting with virus neutralization testing and use of 3 nonstructural protein ELISAs for estimates of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) prevalence on the Adamawa plateau of Cameroon in 2000. Herdsman-reported estimates in this FMD-endemic area were comparable to those obtained from serologic testing. To harness to this cost-effective resource of monitoring emerging infectious diseases, we suggest that estimates of the sensitivity and specificity of herdsmen reporting should be done in parallel with serologic surveys of other animal diseases. PMID:25417556

Cost of tobacco-related diseases, including passive smoking, in Hong Kong.

PubMed

McGhee, S M; Ho, L M; Lapsley, H M; Chau, J; Cheung, W L; Ho, S Y; Pow, M; Lam, T H; Hedley, A J

2006-04-01

Costs of tobacco-related disease can be useful evidence to support tobacco control. In Hong Kong we now have locally derived data on the risks of smoking, including passive smoking. To estimate the health-related costs of tobacco from both active and passive smoking. Using local data, we estimated active and passive smoking-attributable mortality, hospital admissions, outpatient, emergency and general practitioner visits for adults and children, use of nursing homes and domestic help, time lost from work due to illness and premature mortality in the productive years. Morbidity risk data were used where possible but otherwise estimates based on mortality risks were used. Utilisation was valued at unit costs or from survey data. Work time lost was valued at the median wage and an additional costing included a value of USD 1.3 million for a life lost. In the Hong Kong population of 6.5 million in 1998, the annual value of direct medical costs, long term care and productivity loss was USD 532 million for active smoking and USD 156 million for passive smoking; passive smoking accounted for 23% of the total costs. Adding the value of attributable lives lost brought the annual cost to USD 9.4 billion. The health costs of tobacco use are high and represent a net loss to society. Passive smoking increases these costs by at least a quarter. This quantification of the costs of tobacco provides strong motivation for legislative action on smoke-free areas in the Asia Pacific Region and elsewhere.

Epidemiology of Alzheimer disease.

PubMed

Mayeux, Richard; Stern, Yaakov

2012-08-01

The global prevalence of dementia has been estimated to be as high as 24 million, and is predicted to double every 20 years until at least 2040. As the population worldwide continues to age, the number of individuals at risk will also increase, particularly among the very old. Alzheimer disease is the leading cause of dementia beginning with impaired memory. The neuropathological hallmarks of Alzheimer disease include diffuse and neuritic extracellular amyloid plaques in brain that are frequently surrounded by dystrophic neurites and intraneuronal neurofibrillary tangles. The etiology of Alzheimer disease remains unclear, but it is likely to be the result of both genetic and environmental factors. In this review we discuss the prevalence and incidence rates, the established environmental risk factors, and the protective factors, and briefly review genetic variants predisposing to disease.

Epidemiology of Alzheimer Disease

PubMed Central

Mayeux, Richard; Stern, Yaakov

2012-01-01

The global prevalence of dementia has been estimated to be as high as 24 million, and is predicted to double every 20 years until at least 2040. As the population worldwide continues to age, the number of individuals at risk will also increase, particularly among the very old. Alzheimer disease is the leading cause of dementia beginning with impaired memory. The neuropathological hallmarks of Alzheimer disease include diffuse and neuritic extracellular amyloid plaques in brain that are frequently surrounded by dystrophic neurites and intraneuronal neurofibrillary tangles. The etiology of Alzheimer disease remains unclear, but it is likely to be the result of both genetic and environmental factors. In this review we discuss the prevalence and incidence rates, the established environmental risk factors, and the protective factors, and briefly review genetic variants predisposing to disease. PMID:22908189

Global warming and the potential spread of vector-borne diseases

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Patz, J.

1996-12-31

Climatic factors influence many vector-borne infectious diseases, in addition to demographic, biological, and ecological determinants. The United Nation`s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates an unprecedented global rise of 2.0 C by the year 2100. Of major concern is that these changes can affect the spread of many serious infectious diseases, including malaria and dengue fever. Global warming would directly affect disease transmission by shifting the mosquito`s geographic range, increasing reproductive and biting rates, and shortening pathogen incubation period. Human migration and damage to health infrastructures from the projected increase in climate variability and sea level rise could indirectlymore » contribute to disease transmission. A review of this literature, as well as preliminary data from ongoing studies will be presented.« less

Estimating the burden of foodborne diseases in Japan

PubMed Central

Kumagai, Yuko; Gilmour, Stuart; Ota, Erika; Momose, Yoshika; Onishi, Toshiro; Bilano, Ver Luanni Feliciano; Kasuga, Fumiko; Sekizaki, Tsutomu

2015-01-01

Abstract Objective To assess the burden posed by foodborne diseases in Japan using methods developed by the World Health Organization’s Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG). Methods Expert consultation and statistics on food poisoning during 2011 were used to identify three common causes of foodborne disease in Japan: Campylobacter and Salmonella species and enterohaemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC). We conducted systematic reviews of English and Japanese literature on the complications caused by these pathogens, by searching Embase, the Japan medical society abstract database and Medline. We estimated the annual incidence of acute gastroenteritis from reported surveillance data, based on estimated probabilities that an affected person would visit a physician and have gastroenteritis confirmed. We then calculated disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) lost in 2011, using the incidence estimates along with disability weights derived from published studies. Findings In 2011, foodborne disease caused by Campylobacter species, Salmonella species and EHEC led to an estimated loss of 6099, 3145 and 463 DALYs in Japan, respectively. These estimated burdens are based on the pyramid reconstruction method; are largely due to morbidity rather than mortality; and are much higher than those indicated by routine surveillance data. Conclusion Routine surveillance data may indicate foodborne disease burdens that are much lower than the true values. Most of the burden posed by foodborne disease in Japan comes from secondary complications. The tools developed by FERG appear useful in estimating disease burdens and setting priorities in the field of food safety. PMID:26478611

The rise of neglected tropical diseases in the "new Texas".

PubMed

Hotez, Peter J

2018-01-01

Within the last five years, the State of Texas has experienced either transmission or outbreaks of Ebola, chikungunya, West Nile, and Zika virus infections. Autochthonous transmission of neglected parasitic and bacterial diseases has also become increasingly reported. The rise of such emerging and neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) has not occurred by accident but instead reflects rapidly evolving changes and shifts in a "new" Texas beset by modern and globalizing forces that include rapid expansions in population together with urbanization and human migrations, altered transportation patterns, climate change, steeply declining vaccination rates, and a new paradigm of poverty known as "blue marble health." Summarized here are the major NTDs now affecting Texas. In addition to the vector-borne viral diseases highlighted above, there also is a high level of parasitic infections, including Chagas disease, trichomoniasis, and possibly leishmaniasis and toxocariasis, as well as typhus-group rickettsiosis, a vector-borne bacterial infection. I also highlight some of the key shifts in emerging and neglected disease patterns, partly due to an altered and evolving economic and ecological landscape in the new Texas, and provide some preliminary disease burden estimates for the major prevalent and incident NTDs.

Urinary cadmium and estimated dietary cadmium in the Women's Health Initiative.

PubMed

Quraishi, Sabah M; Adams, Scott V; Shafer, Martin; Meliker, Jaymie R; Li, Wenjun; Luo, Juhua; Neuhouser, Marian L; Newcomb, Polly A

2016-01-01

Cadmium, a heavy metal dispersed in the environment as a result of industrial and agricultural applications, has been implicated in several human diseases including renal disease, cancers, and compromised bone health. In the general population, the predominant sources of cadmium exposure are tobacco and diet. Urinary cadmium (uCd) reflects long-term exposure and has been frequently used to assess cadmium exposure in epidemiological studies; estimated dietary intake of cadmium (dCd) has also been used in several studies. The validity of dCd in comparison with uCd is unclear. This study aimed to compare dCd, estimated from food frequency questionnaires, to uCd measured in spot urine samples from 1,002 participants of the Women's Health Initiative. Using linear regression, we found that dCd was not statistically significantly associated with uCd (β=0.006, P-value=0.14). When stratified by smoking status, dCd was not significantly associated with uCd both in never smokers (β=0.006, P-value=0.09) and in ever smokers (β=0.003, P-value=0.67). Our results suggest that because of the lack of association between estimated dCd and measured uCd, dietary estimation of cadmium exposure should be used with caution in epidemiologic studies.

Urinary Cadmium and Estimated Dietary Cadmium in the Women’s Health Initiative

PubMed Central

Quraishi, Sabah M.; Adams, Scott V.; Shafer, Martin; Meliker, Jaymie R.; Li, Wenjun; Luo, Juhua; Neuhouser, Marian L.; Newcomb, Polly A.

2016-01-01

Cadmium, a heavy metal dispersed in the environment as a result of industrial and agricultural applications, has been implicated in several human diseases including renal disease, cancers, and compromised bone health. In the general population, the predominant sources of cadmium exposure are tobacco and diet. Urinary cadmium (uCd) reflects long-term exposure and has been frequently used to assess cadmium exposure in epidemiological studies; estimated dietary intake of cadmium (dCd) has also been used in several studies. The validity of dCd in comparison to uCd is unclear. This study aimed to compare dCd, estimated from food frequency questionnaires (FFQs), to uCd measured in spot urine samples from 1,002 participants of the Women’s Health Initiative. Using linear regression, we found that dCd was not statistically significantly associated with uCd (β=0.006, p-value=0.14). When stratified by smoking status, dCd was not significantly associated with uCd both in never smokers (β=0.006, p-value=0.09) and in ever smokers (β=0.003, p-value=0.0.67). Our results suggest that because of the lack of association between estimated dietary cadmium and measured urinary cadmium exposure, dietary estimation of cadmium exposure should be used with caution in epidemiologic studies. PMID:26015077

Cost and Cost-Effectiveness Assessments of Newborn Screening for Critical Congenital Heart Disease Using Pulse Oximetry: A Review.

PubMed

Grosse, Scott D; Peterson, Cora; Abouk, Rahi; Glidewell, Jill; Oster, Matthew E

2017-01-01

Screening newborns for critical congenital heart disease (CCHD) using pulse oximetry is recommended to allow for the prompt diagnosis and prevention of life-threatening crises. The present review summarizes and critiques six previously published estimates of the costs or cost-effectiveness of CCHD screening from the United Kingdom, United States, and China. Several elements that affect CCHD screening costs were assessed in varying numbers of studies, including screening staff time, instrumentation, and consumables, as well as costs of diagnosis and treatment. A previous US study that used conservative assumptions suggested that CCHD screening is likely to be considered cost-effective from the healthcare sector perspective. Newly available estimates of avoided infant CCHD deaths in several US states that implemented mandatory CCHD screening policies during 2011-2013 suggest a substantially larger reduction in deaths than was projected in the previous US cost-effectiveness analysis. Taking into account these new estimates, we estimate that cost per life-year gained could be as low as USD 12,000. However, that estimate does not take into account future costs of health care and education for surviving children with CCHD nor the costs incurred by health departments to support and monitor CCHD screening policies and programs.

National Economic Burden Associated with Management of Periodontitis in Malaysia

PubMed Central

Ayob, Rasidah; Abd Muttalib, Khairiyah

2016-01-01

Objectives. The aim of this study is to estimate the economic burden associated with the management of periodontitis in Malaysia from the societal perspective. Methods. We estimated the economic burden of periodontitis by combining the disease prevalence with its treatment costs. We estimated treatment costs (with 2012 value of Malaysian Ringgit) using the cost-of-illness approach and included both direct and indirect costs. We used the National Oral Health Survey for Adults (2010) data to estimate the prevalence of periodontitis and 2010 national census data to estimate the adult population at risk for periodontitis. Results. The economic burden of managing all cases of periodontitis at the national level from the societal perspective was approximately MYR 32.5 billion, accounting for 3.83% of the 2012 Gross Domestic Product of the country. It would cost the nation MYR 18.3 billion to treat patients with moderate periodontitis and MYR 13.7 billion to treat patients with severe periodontitis. Conclusion. The economic burden of periodontitis in Malaysia is substantial and comparable with that of other chronic diseases in the country. This is attributable to its high prevalence and high cost of treatment. Judicious application of promotive, preventive, and curative approaches to periodontitis management is decidedly warranted. PMID:27092180

Cost and Cost-Effectiveness Assessments of Newborn Screening for Critical Congenital Heart Disease Using Pulse Oximetry: A Review

PubMed Central

Grosse, Scott D.; Peterson, Cora; Abouk, Rahi; Glidewell, Jill; Oster, Matthew E.

2018-01-01

Screening newborns for critical congenital heart disease (CCHD) using pulse oximetry is recommended to allow for the prompt diagnosis and prevention of life-threatening crises. The present review summarizes and critiques six previously published estimates of the costs or cost-effectiveness of CCHD screening from the United Kingdom, United States, and China. Several elements that affect CCHD screening costs were assessed in varying numbers of studies, including screening staff time, instrumentation, and consumables, as well as costs of diagnosis and treatment. A previous US study that used conservative assumptions suggested that CCHD screening is likely to be considered cost-effective from the healthcare sector perspective. Newly available estimates of avoided infant CCHD deaths in several US states that implemented mandatory CCHD screening policies during 2011–2013 suggest a substantially larger reduction in deaths than was projected in the previous US cost-effectiveness analysis. Taking into account these new estimates, we estimate that cost per life-year gained could be as low as USD 12,000. However, that estimate does not take into account future costs of health care and education for surviving children with CCHD nor the costs incurred by health departments to support and monitor CCHD screening policies and programs. PMID:29376140

Estimated severe pneumococcal disease cases and deaths before and after pneumococcal conjugate vaccine introduction in children younger than 5 years of age in South Africa.

PubMed

von Mollendorf, Claire; Tempia, Stefano; von Gottberg, Anne; Meiring, Susan; Quan, Vanessa; Feldman, Charles; Cloete, Jeane; Madhi, Shabir A; O'Brien, Katherine L; Klugman, Keith P; Whitney, Cynthia G; Cohen, Cheryl

2017-01-01

Streptococcus pneumoniae is a leading cause of severe bacterial infections globally. A full understanding of the impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) on pneumococcal disease burden, following its introduction in 2009 in South Africa, can support national policy on PCV use and assist with policy decisions elsewhere. We developed a model to estimate the national burden of severe pneumococcal disease, i.e. disease requiring hospitalisation, pre- (2005-2008) and post-PCV introduction (2012-2013) in children aged 0-59 months in South Africa. We estimated case numbers for invasive pneumococcal disease using data from the national laboratory-based surveillance, adjusted for specimen-taking practices. We estimated non-bacteraemic pneumococcal pneumonia case numbers using vaccine probe study data. To estimate pneumococcal deaths, we applied observed case fatality ratios to estimated case numbers. Estimates were stratified by HIV status to account for the impact of PCV and HIV-related interventions. We assessed how different assumptions affected estimates using a sensitivity analysis. Bootstrapping created confidence intervals. In the pre-vaccine era, a total of approximately 107,600 (95% confidence interval [CI] 83,000-140,000) cases of severe hospitalised pneumococcal disease were estimated to have occurred annually. Following PCV introduction and the improvement in HIV interventions, 41,800 (95% CI 28,000-50,000) severe pneumococcal disease cases were estimated in 2012-2013, a rate reduction of 1,277 cases per 100,000 child-years. Approximately 5000 (95% CI 3000-6000) pneumococcal-related annual deaths were estimated in the pre-vaccine period and 1,900 (95% CI 1000-2500) in 2012-2013, a mortality rate difference of 61 per 100,000 child-years. While a large number of hospitalisations and deaths due to pneumococcal disease still occur among children 0-59 months in South Africa, we found a large reduction in this estimate that is temporally associated with PCV introduction. In HIV-infected individuals the scale-up of other interventions, such as improvements in HIV care, may have also contributed to the declines in pneumococcal burden.

Direct healthcare costs of selected diseases primarily or partially transmitted by water.

PubMed

Collier, S A; Stockman, L J; Hicks, L A; Garrison, L E; Zhou, F J; Beach, M J

2012-11-01

Despite US sanitation advancements, millions of waterborne disease cases occur annually, although the precise burden of disease is not well quantified. Estimating the direct healthcare cost of specific infections would be useful in prioritizing waterborne disease prevention activities. Hospitalization and outpatient visit costs per case and total US hospitalization costs for ten waterborne diseases were calculated using large healthcare claims and hospital discharge databases. The five primarily waterborne diseases in this analysis (giardiasis, cryptosporidiosis, Legionnaires' disease, otitis externa, and non-tuberculous mycobacterial infection) were responsible for over 40 000 hospitalizations at a cost of $970 million per year, including at least $430 million in hospitalization costs for Medicaid and Medicare patients. An additional 50 000 hospitalizations for campylobacteriosis, salmonellosis, shigellosis, haemolytic uraemic syndrome, and toxoplasmosis cost $860 million annually ($390 million in payments for Medicaid and Medicare patients), a portion of which can be assumed to be due to waterborne transmission.

Invasive pneumococcal disease in Jamaican children.

PubMed

McGregor, D; Barton, M; Thomas, S; Christie, C D

2004-03-01

A 5-year retrospective review of cases of invasive pneumococcal disease admitted to the Bustamante Hospital for Children, Jamaica was conducted. A total of 111 cases were identified. The estimated incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease in Kingston and St Andrew was 21/100,000 children under the age of 10 years. The majority of cases (76%) were in the under-2-years age group. All four deaths were of infants. Pre-existing medical conditions included sickle cell disease, HIV and undernutrition. The rate of resistance to penicillin was 13.8%. Meningitis accounted for three of the four deaths identified and poor outcome was identified in 28% of cases of meningitis. We conclude that invasive pneumococcal disease causes significant morbidity and mortality in young Jamaican children. Strategies directed at preventing HIV infection and malnutrition and improving the care of children with sickle cell disease and HIV infection would significantly reduce disease incidence.

Direct healthcare costs of selected diseases primarily or partially transmitted by water

PubMed Central

COLLIER, S. A.; STOCKMAN, L. J.; HICKS, L. A.; GARRISON, L. E.; ZHOU, F. J.; BEACH, M. J.

2015-01-01

SUMMARY Despite US sanitation advancements, millions of waterborne disease cases occur annually, although the precise burden of disease is not well quantified. Estimating the direct healthcare cost of specific infections would be useful in prioritizing waterborne disease prevention activities. Hospitalization and outpatient visit costs per case and total US hospitalization costs for ten waterborne diseases were calculated using large healthcare claims and hospital discharge databases. The five primarily waterborne diseases in this analysis (giardiasis, cryptosporidiosis, Legionnaires’ disease, otitis externa, and non-tuberculous mycobacterial infection) were responsible for over 40 000 hospitalizations at a cost of $970 million per year, including at least $430 million in hospitalization costs for Medicaid and Medicare patients. An additional 50 000 hospitalizations for campylobacteriosis, salmonellosis, shigellosis, haemolytic uraemic syndrome, and toxoplasmosis cost $860 million annually ($390 million in payments for Medicaid and Medicare patients), a portion of which can be assumed to be due to waterborne transmission. PMID:22233584

Kidney Disease in Oman: a View of the Current and Future Landscapes.

PubMed

Al Alawi, Intisar Hamed; Al Salmi, Issa; Al Mawali, Adhra; Sayer, John A

2017-07-01

Oman is located in the southeast of Arabian Peninsula with a relatively young population of about 3 831 553 people. The Ministry of Health, which is the healthcare provider, is facing a challenge with the increased levels of noncommunicable diseases including chronic kidney disease. A growing number of patients progress to end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), demanding renal replacement therapy. In 2014, there were 1339 of ESKD patients receiving dialysis and almost 1400 patients received kidney transplants. The estimated annual incidence of ESKD is 120 patients per million population. Diabetes mellitus and hypertensive nephropathy are the commonly identified causes of ESKD. Many patients with glomerulonephritis, systemic lupus erythematosus, nephrolithiasis, and inherited kidney disease present with advanced chronic kidney disease. This article reviews the current status of kidney disease in Oman and addresses the present and future needs, through a systematic-review of all related papers.

Assessing coral health and disease from digital photographs and in situ surveys.

PubMed

Page, C A; Field, S N; Pollock, F J; Lamb, J B; Shedrawi, G; Wilson, S K

2017-01-01

Methods for monitoring the status of marine communities are increasingly adopting the use of images captured in the field. However, it is not always clear how data collected from photographic images relate to historic data collected using traditional underwater visual census methods. Here, we compare coral health and disease data collected in situ by scuba divers with photographic images collected simultaneously at 12 coral reef sites. Five globally relevant coral diseases were detected on 194 colonies from in situ surveys and 79 colonies from photos, whilst 698 colonies from in situ surveys and 535 colonies from photos exhibited signs of compromised health other than disease. Comparisons of in situ surveys with photographic analyses indicated that the number of disease cases occurring in the examined coral populations (prevalence) was six times higher (4.5 vs. 0.8% of colonies), whilst compromised health was three times higher (14 vs. 4% of colonies) from in situ surveys. Skeletal eroding band disease, sponge overgrowth and presence of Waminoa flatworms were not detected in photographs, though they were identified in situ. Estimates of black band disease and abnormally pigmented coral tissues were similar between the two methods. Estimates of the bleached and healthy colonies were also similar between methods and photographic analyses were a strong predictor of bleached (r 2  = 0.8) and healthy (r 2  = 0.5) colony prevalence from in situ surveys. Moreover, when data on disease and compromised health states resulting in white or pale coral colony appearance were pooled, the prevalence of 'white' colonies from in situ (14%) and photographic analyses (11%) were statistically similar. Our results indicate that information on coral disease and health collected by in situ surveys and photographic analyses are not directly comparable, with in situ surveys generally providing higher estimates of prevalence and greater ability to identify some diseases and compromised states. Careful sampling of photographs can however identify signs of coral stress, including some coral diseases, which may be used to trigger early-warning management interventions.

The Costs of Preventing and Treating Chagas Disease in Colombia

PubMed Central

Castillo-Riquelme, Marianela; Guhl, Felipe; Turriago, Brenda; Pinto, Nestor; Rosas, Fernando; Martínez, Mónica Flórez; Fox-Rushby, Julia; Davies, Clive; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid

2008-01-01

Background The objective of this study is to report the costs of Chagas disease in Colombia, in terms of vector disease control programmes and the costs of providing care to chronic Chagas disease patients with cardiomyopathy. Methods Data were collected from Colombia in 2004. A retrospective review of costs for vector control programmes carried out in rural areas included 3,084 houses surveyed for infestation with triatomine bugs and 3,305 houses sprayed with insecticide. A total of 63 patient records from 3 different hospitals were selected for a retrospective review of resource use. Consensus methodology with local experts was used to estimate care seeking behaviour and to complement observed data on utilisation. Findings The mean cost per house per entomological survey was $4.4 (in US$ of 2004), whereas the mean cost of spraying a house with insecticide was $27. The main cost driver of spraying was the price of the insecticide, which varied greatly. Treatment of a chronic Chagas disease patient costs between $46.4 and $7,981 per year in Colombia, depending on severity and the level of care used. Combining cost and utilisation estimates the expected cost of treatment per patient-year is $1,028, whereas lifetime costs averaged $11,619 per patient. Chronic Chagas disease patients have limited access to healthcare, with an estimated 22% of patients never seeking care. Conclusion Chagas disease is a preventable condition that affects mostly poor populations living in rural areas. The mean costs of surveying houses for infestation and spraying infested houses were low in comparison to other studies and in line with treatment costs. Care seeking behaviour and the type of insurance affiliation seem to play a role in the facilities and type of care that patients use, thus raising concerns about equitable access to care. Preventing Chagas disease in Colombia would be cost-effective and could contribute to prevent inequalities in health and healthcare. PMID:19015725

Lost productivity due to premature mortality in developed and emerging countries: an application to smoking cessation.

PubMed

Menzin, Joseph; Marton, Jeno P; Menzin, Jordan A; Willke, Richard J; Woodward, Rebecca M; Federico, Victoria

2012-06-25

Researchers and policy makers have determined that accounting for productivity costs, or "indirect costs," may be as important as including direct medical expenditures when evaluating the societal value of health interventions. These costs are also important when estimating the global burden of disease. The estimation of indirect costs is commonly done on a country-specific basis. However, there are few studies that evaluate indirect costs across countries using a consistent methodology. Using the human capital approach, we developed a model that estimates productivity costs as the present value of lifetime earnings (PVLE) lost due to premature mortality. Applying this methodology, the model estimates productivity costs for 29 selected countries, both developed and emerging. We also provide an illustration of how the inclusion of productivity costs contributes to an analysis of the societal burden of smoking. A sensitivity analysis is undertaken to assess productivity costs on the basis of the friction cost approach. PVLE estimates were higher for certain subpopulations, such as men, younger people, and people in developed countries. In the case study, productivity cost estimates from our model showed that productivity loss was a substantial share of the total cost burden of premature mortality due to smoking, accounting for over 75 % of total lifetime costs in the United States and 67 % of total lifetime costs in Brazil. Productivity costs were much lower using the friction cost approach among those of working age. Our PVLE model is a novel tool allowing researchers to incorporate the value of lost productivity due to premature mortality into economic analyses of treatments for diseases or health interventions. We provide PVLE estimates for a number of emerging and developed countries. Including productivity costs in a health economics study allows for a more comprehensive analysis, and, as demonstrated by our illustration, can have important effects on the results and conclusions.

Lost productivity due to premature mortality in developed and emerging countries: an application to smoking cessation

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Researchers and policy makers have determined that accounting for productivity costs, or “indirect costs,” may be as important as including direct medical expenditures when evaluating the societal value of health interventions. These costs are also important when estimating the global burden of disease. The estimation of indirect costs is commonly done on a country-specific basis. However, there are few studies that evaluate indirect costs across countries using a consistent methodology. Methods Using the human capital approach, we developed a model that estimates productivity costs as the present value of lifetime earnings (PVLE) lost due to premature mortality. Applying this methodology, the model estimates productivity costs for 29 selected countries, both developed and emerging. We also provide an illustration of how the inclusion of productivity costs contributes to an analysis of the societal burden of smoking. A sensitivity analysis is undertaken to assess productivity costs on the basis of the friction cost approach. Results PVLE estimates were higher for certain subpopulations, such as men, younger people, and people in developed countries. In the case study, productivity cost estimates from our model showed that productivity loss was a substantial share of the total cost burden of premature mortality due to smoking, accounting for over 75 % of total lifetime costs in the United States and 67 % of total lifetime costs in Brazil. Productivity costs were much lower using the friction cost approach among those of working age. Conclusions Our PVLE model is a novel tool allowing researchers to incorporate the value of lost productivity due to premature mortality into economic analyses of treatments for diseases or health interventions. We provide PVLE estimates for a number of emerging and developed countries. Including productivity costs in a health economics study allows for a more comprehensive analysis, and, as demonstrated by our illustration, can have important effects on the results and conclusions. PMID:22731620

Economic Burden of Smoking in Iran: A Prevalence-Based Annual Cost Approach

PubMed Central

Rezaei, Satar; Matin, Behzad Karami; Hajizadeh, Mohammad; Bazyar, Mohammad; Sari, Ali Akbari

2017-01-01

Objectives: The burden of smoking on the health system and society is significant. The current study aimed to estimate the annual direct and indirect costs of smoking in Iran for the year 2014. Methods: A prevalence-based disease-specific approach was used to determine costs associated with the three most common smoking-related diseases: lung cancer (LC), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and ischaemic heart disease (IHD). Data on healthcare utilization were obtained from an original survey, hospital records and questionnaires. The number of deaths was extracted from the global burden diseases study (GBD). The human capital approach was applied to estimate the costs of morbidity and mortality due to smoking-related diseases, classified as direct (hospitalization, outpatients and non-medical costs) and indirect (mortality and morbidity). Results: The total economic cost of the three most common smoking-attributable diseases in Iran was US$1.46 billion in 2014, including US$1.05 billion (71.7%) in indirect and US$0.41 billion (28.3%) in direct costs. Direct costs of the three smoking-related diseases accounted for 1.6% of total healthcare expenditures and total costs were about 0.26% of Iran’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2014. Conclusions: Our study indicated that smoking places a substantial economic burden on Iranian society. Therefore, sustained smoking cessation interventions and tobacco control policies are required to reduce the magnitude and extent of smoking-attributable costs in Iran. PMID:29072438

Long-term cost-effectiveness of disease management in systolic heart failure.

PubMed

Miller, George; Randolph, Stephen; Forkner, Emma; Smith, Brad; Galbreath, Autumn Dawn

2009-01-01

Although congestive heart failure (CHF) is a primary target for disease management programs, previous studies have generated mixed results regarding the effectiveness and cost savings of disease management when applied to CHF. We estimated the long-term impact of systolic heart failure disease management from the results of an 18-month clinical trial. We used data generated from the trial (starting population distributions, resource utilization, mortality rates, and transition probabilities) in a Markov model to project results of continuing the disease management program for the patients' lifetimes. Outputs included distribution of illness severity, mortality, resource consumption, and the cost of resources consumed. Both cost and effectiveness were discounted at a rate of 3% per year. Cost-effectiveness was computed as cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Model results were validated against trial data and indicated that, over their lifetimes, patients experienced a lifespan extension of 51 days. Combined discounted lifetime program and medical costs were $4850 higher in the disease management group than the control group, but the program had a favorable long-term discounted cost-effectiveness of $43,650/QALY. These results are robust to assumptions regarding mortality rates, the impact of aging on the cost of care, the discount rate, utility values, and the targeted population. Estimation of the clinical benefits and financial burden of disease management can be enhanced by model-based analyses to project costs and effectiveness. Our results suggest that disease management of heart failure patients can be cost-effective over the long term.

Emerging infectious disease outbreaks: estimating disease risk in Australian blood donors travelling overseas.

PubMed

Coghlan, A; Hoad, V C; Seed, C R; Flower, R Lp; Harley, R J; Herbert, D; Faddy, H M

2018-01-01

International travel assists spread of infectious pathogens. Australians regularly travel to South-eastern Asia and the isles of the South Pacific, where they may become infected with infectious agents, such as dengue (DENV), chikungunya (CHIKV) and Zika (ZIKV) viruses that pose a potential risk to transfusion safety. In Australia, donors are temporarily restricted from donating for fresh component manufacture following travel to many countries, including those in this study. We aimed to estimate the unmitigated transfusion-transmission (TT) risk from donors travelling internationally to areas affected by emerging infectious diseases. We used the European Up-Front Risk Assessment Tool, with travel and notification data, to estimate the TT risk from donors travelling to areas affected by disease outbreaks: Fiji (DENV), Bali (DENV), Phuket (DENV), Indonesia (CHIKV) and French Polynesia (ZIKV). We predict minimal risk from travel, with the annual unmitigated risk of an infected component being released varying from 1 in 1·43 million to <1 in one billion and the risk of severe consequences ranging from 1 in 130 million to <1 in one billion. The predicted unmitigated likelihood of infection in blood components manufactured from donors travelling to the above-mentioned areas was very low, with the possibility of severe consequences in a transfusion recipient even smaller. Given the increasing demand for plasma products in Australia, the current strategy of restricting donors returning from select infectious disease outbreak areas to source plasma collection provides a simple and effective risk management approach. © 2017 International Society of Blood Transfusion.

Best practice assessment of disease modelling for infectious disease outbreaks.

PubMed

Dembek, Z F; Chekol, T; Wu, A

2018-05-08

During emerging disease outbreaks, public health, emergency management officials and decision-makers increasingly rely on epidemiological models to forecast outbreak progression and determine the best response to health crisis needs. Outbreak response strategies derived from such modelling may include pharmaceutical distribution, immunisation campaigns, social distancing, prophylactic pharmaceuticals, medical care, bed surge, security and other requirements. Infectious disease modelling estimates are unavoidably subject to multiple interpretations, and full understanding of a model's limitations may be lost when provided from the disease modeller to public health practitioner to government policymaker. We review epidemiological models created for diseases which are of greatest concern for public health protection. Such diseases, whether transmitted from person-to-person (Ebola, influenza, smallpox), via direct exposure (anthrax), or food and waterborne exposure (cholera, typhoid) may cause severe illness and death in a large population. We examine disease-specific models to determine best practices characterising infectious disease outbreaks and facilitating emergency response and implementation of public health policy and disease control measures.

Timing of surgery in valvular heart disease: prophylactic surgery vs watchful waiting in the asymptomatic patient.

PubMed

Gillam, Linda D; Marcoff, Leo; Shames, Sofia

2014-09-01

In the absence of randomized controlled trial data, the management of patients with severe valvular heart disease without symptoms, ventricular dysfunction, or other identified triggers for surgery is controversial. In this review, we frame the debate between prophylactic surgery vs close follow-up until triggers occur (watchful waiting) for severe aortic stenosis and degenerative mitral regurgitation (MR), the 2 conditions for which the pros and cons of these approaches are best articulated. Classic high-gradient severe aortic stenosis is generally accurately diagnosed. In asymptomatic patients, stress testing can be used to confirm asymptomatic status and identify high-risk features including reduced exercise tolerance, exercise-induced symptoms, and absolute or relative hypotension. Resting echocardiographic predictors of disease progression and/or adverse events include very high gradients, rapid progression, and extensive calcification. Surgical risk calculators can help estimate perioperative morbidity/mortality with the ultimate choice of a medical vs a prophylactic surgical approach to be made after discussion with the patient. With degenerative MR, severity can be inaccurately estimated. Stress testing might clarify whether the patient is truly asymptomatic and identify features associated with worse prognosis and symptom onset. Selecting patients with high probability of repair can be challenging. Perioperative risk and postoperative risks including those of unanticipated valve replacement and recurrent MR after repair are also considerations. In aggregate, management of patients with valvular disease who are asymptomatic and who have no clear trigger for surgery is complex, requires individualization, and should be carried out by or in collaboration with a heart valve centre of excellence. Copyright © 2014 Canadian Cardiovascular Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Global economic burden of Chagas disease: a computational simulation model.

PubMed

Lee, Bruce Y; Bacon, Kristina M; Bottazzi, Maria Elena; Hotez, Peter J

2013-04-01

As Chagas disease continues to expand beyond tropical and subtropical zones, a growing need exists to better understand its resulting economic burden to help guide stakeholders such as policy makers, funders, and product developers. We developed a Markov simulation model to estimate the global and regional health and economic burden of Chagas disease from the societal perspective. Our Markov model structure had a 1 year cycle length and consisted of five states: acute disease, indeterminate disease, cardiomyopathy with or without congestive heart failure, megaviscera, and death. Major model parameter inputs, including the annual probabilities of transitioning from one state to another, and present case estimates for Chagas disease came from various sources, including WHO and other epidemiological and disease-surveillance-based reports. We calculated annual and lifetime health-care costs and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for individuals, countries, and regions. We used a discount rate of 3% to adjust all costs and DALYs to present-day values. On average, an infected individual incurs US$474 in health-care costs and 0·51 DALYs annually. Over his or her lifetime, an infected individual accrues an average net present value of $3456 and 3·57 DALYs. Globally, the annual burden is $627·46 million in health-care costs and 806,170 DALYs. The global net present value of currently infected individuals is $24·73 billion in health-care costs and 29,385,250 DALYs. Conversion of this burden into costs results in annual per-person costs of $4660 and lifetime per-person costs of $27,684. Global costs are $7·19 billion per year and $188·80 billion per lifetime. More than 10% of these costs emanate from the USA and Canada, where Chagas disease has not been traditionally endemic. A substantial proportion of the burden emerges from lost productivity from cardiovascular disease-induced early mortality. The economic burden of Chagas disease is similar to or exceeds those of other prominent diseases globally (eg, rotavirus $2·0 billion, cervical cancer $4·7 billion) even in the USA (Lyme disease $2·5 billion), where Chagas disease has not been traditionally endemic, suggesting an economic argument for more attention and efforts towards control of Chagas disease. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institute of General Medical Sciences Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimizing chronic disease management mega-analysis: economic evaluation.

PubMed

2013-01-01

As Ontario's population ages, chronic diseases are becoming increasingly common. There is growing interest in services and care models designed to optimize the management of chronic disease. To evaluate the cost-effectiveness and expected budget impact of interventions in chronic disease cohorts evaluated as part of the Optimizing Chronic Disease Management mega-analysis. Sector-specific costs, disease incidence, and mortality were calculated for each condition using administrative databases from the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences. Intervention outcomes were based on literature identified in the evidence-based analyses. Quality-of-life and disease prevalence data were obtained from the literature. Analyses were restricted to interventions that showed significant benefit for resource use or mortality from the evidence-based analyses. An Ontario cohort of patients with each chronic disease was constructed and followed over 5 years (2006-2011). A phase-based approach was used to estimate costs across all sectors of the health care system. Utility values identified in the literature and effect estimates for resource use and mortality obtained from the evidence-based analyses were applied to calculate incremental costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Given uncertainty about how many patients would benefit from each intervention, a system-wide budget impact was not determined. Instead, the difference in lifetime cost between an individual-administered intervention and no intervention was presented. Of 70 potential cost-effectiveness analyses, 8 met our inclusion criteria. All were found to result in QALY gains and cost savings compared with usual care. The models were robust to the majority of sensitivity analyses undertaken, but due to structural limitations and time constraints, few sensitivity analyses were conducted. Incremental cost savings per patient who received intervention ranged between $15 per diabetic patient with specialized nursing to $10,665 per patient wth congestive heart failure receiving in-home care. Evidence used to inform estimates of effect was often limited to a single trial with limited generalizability across populations, interventions, and health care systems. Because of the low clinical fidelity of health administrative data sets, intermediate clinical outcomes could not be included. Cohort costs included an average of all health care costs and were not restricted to costs associated with the disease. Intervention costs were based on resource use specified in clinical trials. Applying estimates of effect from the evidence-based analyses to real-world resource use resulted in cost savings for all interventions. On the basis of quality-of-life data identified in the literature, all interventions were found to result in a greater QALY gain than usual care would. Implementation of all interventions could offer significant cost reductions. However, this analysis was subject to important limitations. Chronic diseases are the leading cause of death and disability in Ontario. They account for a third of direct health care costs across the province. This study aims to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of health care interventions that might improve the management of chronic diseases. The evaluated interventions led to lower costs and better quality of life than usual care. Offering these options could reduce costs per patient. However, the studies used in this analysis were of medium to very low quality, and the methods had many limitations.

Television Viewing and Risk of Type 2 Diabetes, Cardiovascular Disease, and All-Cause Mortality A Meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Grøntved, Anders; Hu, Frank B.

2015-01-01

Context Prolonged television (TV) viewing is the most prevalent and pervasive sedentary behavior in industrialized countries and has been associated with morbidity and mortality. However, a systematic and quantitative assessment of published studies is not available. Objective To perform a meta-analysis of all prospective cohort studies to determine the association between TV viewing and risk of type 2 diabetes, fatal or nonfatal cardiovascular disease, and all-cause mortality. Data Sources and Study Selection Relevant studies were identified by searches of the MEDLINE database from 1970 to March 2011 and the EMBASE database from 1974 to March 2011 without restrictions and by reviewing reference lists from retrieved articles. Cohort studies that reported relative risk estimates with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the associations of interest were included. Data Extraction Data were extracted independently by each author and summary estimates of association were obtained using a random-effects model. Data Synthesis Of the 8 studies included, 4 reported results on type 2 diabetes (175 938 individuals; 6428 incident cases during 1.1 million person-years of follow-up), 4 reported on fatal or nonfatal cardiovascular disease (34 253 individuals; 1052 incident cases), and 3 reported on all-cause mortality (26 509 individuals; 1879 deaths during 202 353 person-years of follow-up). The pooled relative risks per 2 hours of TV viewing per day were 1.20 (95% CI, 1.14-1.27) for type 2 diabetes, 1.15 (95% CI, 1.06-1.23) for fatal or nonfatal cardiovascular disease, and 1.13 (95% CI, 1.07-1.18) for all-cause mortality. While the associations between time spent viewing TV and risk of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease were linear, the risk of all-cause mortality appeared to increase with TV viewing duration of greater than 3 hours per day. The estimated absolute risk differences per every 2 hours of TV viewing per day were 176 cases of type 2 diabetes per 100 000 individuals per year, 38 cases of fatal cardiovascular disease per 100 000 individuals per year, and 104 deaths for all-cause mortality per 100 000 individuals per year. Conclusion Prolonged TV viewing was associated with increased risk of type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and all-cause mortality. PMID:21673296

Chronic disease prevalence from Italian administrative databases in the VALORE project: a validation through comparison of population estimates with general practice databases and national survey

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Administrative databases are widely available and have been extensively used to provide estimates of chronic disease prevalence for the purpose of surveillance of both geographical and temporal trends. There are, however, other sources of data available, such as medical records from primary care and national surveys. In this paper we compare disease prevalence estimates obtained from these three different data sources. Methods Data from general practitioners (GP) and administrative transactions for health services were collected from five Italian regions (Veneto, Emilia Romagna, Tuscany, Marche and Sicily) belonging to all the three macroareas of the country (North, Center, South). Crude prevalence estimates were calculated by data source and region for diabetes, ischaemic heart disease, heart failure and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). For diabetes and COPD, prevalence estimates were also obtained from a national health survey. When necessary, estimates were adjusted for completeness of data ascertainment. Results Crude prevalence estimates of diabetes in administrative databases (range: from 4.8% to 7.1%) were lower than corresponding GP (6.2%-8.5%) and survey-based estimates (5.1%-7.5%). Geographical trends were similar in the three sources and estimates based on treatment were the same, while estimates adjusted for completeness of ascertainment (6.1%-8.8%) were slightly higher. For ischaemic heart disease administrative and GP data sources were fairly consistent, with prevalence ranging from 3.7% to 4.7% and from 3.3% to 4.9%, respectively. In the case of heart failure administrative estimates were consistently higher than GPs’ estimates in all five regions, the highest difference being 1.4% vs 1.1%. For COPD the estimates from administrative data, ranging from 3.1% to 5.2%, fell into the confidence interval of the Survey estimates in four regions, but failed to detect the higher prevalence in the most Southern region (4.0% in administrative data vs 6.8% in survey data). The prevalence estimates for COPD from GP data were consistently higher than the corresponding estimates from the other two sources. Conclusion This study supports the use of data from Italian administrative databases to estimate geographic differences in population prevalence of ischaemic heart disease, treated diabetes, diabetes mellitus and heart failure. The algorithm for COPD used in this study requires further refinement. PMID:23297821

Injuries and their burden in insured construction workers in Iran, 2012.

PubMed

Hatami, Seyed Esmaeil; Khanjani, Narges; Alavinia, Seyed Mohammad; Ravandi, Mohammad Reza Ghotbi

2017-03-01

The present study used disability adjusted life years (DALY) to estimate the burden of external cause of injuries in construction workers insured in Iran in 2012. The Global Burden of Disease method (2010) was used to estimate the years of life lost due to death (YLL) and years of life lost due to disability (YLD). DALY was calculated as the sum of YLL and YLD. There were 5352 injured construction workers in Iran (11.25 individuals per 1000). Falling was the most common incidence and included 2490 individuals (46.53%). Totally, DALY was estimated 18,557 years for all age groups and both genders including 17,821 YLD (96%) and 736 YLL (4%). The DALY related to construction work is high in Iran and it has notably affected the young. Hence more preventive methods should be applied to reduce the overall burden of specific external cause of injuries especially in young and inexperienced workers.

The usefulness of “corrected” body mass index vs. self-reported body mass index: comparing the population distributions, sensitivity, specificity, and predictive utility of three correction equations using Canadian population-based data

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background National data on body mass index (BMI), computed from self-reported height and weight, is readily available for many populations including the Canadian population. Because self-reported weight is found to be systematically under-reported, it has been proposed that the bias in self-reported BMI can be corrected using equations derived from data sets which include both self-reported and measured height and weight. Such correction equations have been developed and adopted. We aim to evaluate the usefulness (i.e., distributional similarity; sensitivity and specificity; and predictive utility vis-à-vis disease outcomes) of existing and new correction equations in population-based research. Methods The Canadian Community Health Surveys from 2005 and 2008 include both measured and self-reported values of height and weight, which allows for construction and evaluation of correction equations. We focused on adults age 18–65, and compared three correction equations (two correcting weight only, and one correcting BMI) against self-reported and measured BMI. We first compared population distributions of BMI. Second, we compared the sensitivity and specificity of self-reported BMI and corrected BMI against measured BMI. Third, we compared the self-reported and corrected BMI in terms of association with health outcomes using logistic regression. Results All corrections outperformed self-report when estimating the full BMI distribution; the weight-only correction outperformed the BMI-only correction for females in the 23–28 kg/m2 BMI range. In terms of sensitivity/specificity, when estimating obesity prevalence, corrected values of BMI (from any equation) were superior to self-report. In terms of modelling BMI-disease outcome associations, findings were mixed, with no correction proving consistently superior to self-report. Conclusions If researchers are interested in modelling the full population distribution of BMI, or estimating the prevalence of obesity in a population, then a correction of any kind included in this study is recommended. If the researcher is interested in using BMI as a predictor variable for modelling disease, then both self-reported and corrected BMI result in biased estimates of association. PMID:24885210

Internal Medicine residents use heuristics to estimate disease probability.

PubMed

Phang, Sen Han; Ravani, Pietro; Schaefer, Jeffrey; Wright, Bruce; McLaughlin, Kevin

2015-01-01

Training in Bayesian reasoning may have limited impact on accuracy of probability estimates. In this study, our goal was to explore whether residents previously exposed to Bayesian reasoning use heuristics rather than Bayesian reasoning to estimate disease probabilities. We predicted that if residents use heuristics then post-test probability estimates would be increased by non-discriminating clinical features or a high anchor for a target condition. We randomized 55 Internal Medicine residents to different versions of four clinical vignettes and asked them to estimate probabilities of target conditions. We manipulated the clinical data for each vignette to be consistent with either 1) using a representative heuristic, by adding non-discriminating prototypical clinical features of the target condition, or 2) using anchoring with adjustment heuristic, by providing a high or low anchor for the target condition. When presented with additional non-discriminating data the odds of diagnosing the target condition were increased (odds ratio (OR) 2.83, 95% confidence interval [1.30, 6.15], p = 0.009). Similarly, the odds of diagnosing the target condition were increased when a high anchor preceded the vignette (OR 2.04, [1.09, 3.81], p = 0.025). Our findings suggest that despite previous exposure to the use of Bayesian reasoning, residents use heuristics, such as the representative heuristic and anchoring with adjustment, to estimate probabilities. Potential reasons for attribute substitution include the relative cognitive ease of heuristics vs. Bayesian reasoning or perhaps residents in their clinical practice use gist traces rather than precise probability estimates when diagnosing.

The Clinical and Nonclinical Values of Nonexercise Estimation of Cardiovascular Endurance in Young Asymptomatic Individuals

PubMed Central

Alomari, Mahmoud A.; Shqair, Dana M.; Khabour, Omar F.; Alawneh, Khaldoon; Nazzal, Mahmoud I.; Keewan, Esraa F.

2012-01-01

Exercise testing is associated with barriers prevent using cardiovascular (CV) endurance (CVE) measure frequently. A recent nonexercise model (NM) is alleged to estimate CVE without exercise. This study examined CVE relationships, using the NM model, with measures of obesity, physical fitness (PF), blood glucose and lipid, and circulation in 188 asymptomatic young (18–40 years) adults. Estimated CVE correlated favorably with measures of PF (r = 0.4 − 0.5) including handgrip strength, distance in 6 munities walking test, and shoulder press, and leg extension strengths, obesity (r = 0.2 − 0.7) including % body fat, body water content, fat mass, muscle mass, BMI, waist and hip circumferences and waist/hip ratio, and circulation (r = 0.2 − 0.3) including blood pressures, blood flow, vascular resistance, and blood (r = 0.2 − 0.5) profile including glucose, total cholesterol, LDL-C, HDL-C, and triglycerides. Additionally, differences (P < 0.05) in examined measures were found between the high, average, and low estimated CVE groups. Obviously the majority of these measures are CV disease risk factors and metabolic syndrome components. These results enhance the NM scientific value, and thus, can be further used in clinical and nonclinical settings. PMID:22606068

Burn mortality in patients with preexisting cardiovascular disease.

PubMed

Knowlin, Laquanda; Reid, Trista; Williams, Felicia; Cairns, Bruce; Charles, Anthony

2017-08-01

Burn shock, a complex process, which develops following burn leads to severe and unique derangement of cardiovascular function. Patients with preexisting comorbidities such as cardiovascular diseases may be more susceptible. We therefore sought to examine the impact of preexisting cardiovascular disease on burn outcomes. A retrospective analysis of patients admitted to a regional burn center from 2002 to 2012. Independent variables analyzed included basic demographics, burn mechanism, presence of inhalation injury, TBSA, pre-existing comorbidities, and length of ICU/hospital stay. Bivariate analysis was performed and Poisson regression modeling was utilized to estimate the incidence of being in the ICU and mortality. There were a total of 5332 adult patients admitted over the study period. 6% (n=428) had a preexisting cardiovascular disease. Cardiovascular disease patients had a higher mortality rate (16%) compared to those without cardiovascular disease (3%, p<0.001). The adjusted Poisson regression model to estimate incidence risk of being in intensive care unit in patients with cardiovascular disease was 33% higher compared to those without cardiovascular disease (IRR=1.33, 95% CI=1.22-1.47). The risk for mortality is 42% higher (IRR=1.42, 95% CI=1.10-1.84) for patients with pre-existing cardiovascular disease compared to those without cardiovascular disease after controlling for other covariates. Preexisting cardiovascular disease significantly increases the risk of intensive care unit admission and mortality in burn patients. Given the increasing number of Americans with cardiovascular diseases, there will likely be a greater number of individuals at risk for worse outcomes following burn. This knowledge can help with burn prognostication. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.

Partitioning heritability by functional annotation using genome-wide association summary statistics.

PubMed

Finucane, Hilary K; Bulik-Sullivan, Brendan; Gusev, Alexander; Trynka, Gosia; Reshef, Yakir; Loh, Po-Ru; Anttila, Verneri; Xu, Han; Zang, Chongzhi; Farh, Kyle; Ripke, Stephan; Day, Felix R; Purcell, Shaun; Stahl, Eli; Lindstrom, Sara; Perry, John R B; Okada, Yukinori; Raychaudhuri, Soumya; Daly, Mark J; Patterson, Nick; Neale, Benjamin M; Price, Alkes L

2015-11-01

Recent work has demonstrated that some functional categories of the genome contribute disproportionately to the heritability of complex diseases. Here we analyze a broad set of functional elements, including cell type-specific elements, to estimate their polygenic contributions to heritability in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of 17 complex diseases and traits with an average sample size of 73,599. To enable this analysis, we introduce a new method, stratified LD score regression, for partitioning heritability from GWAS summary statistics while accounting for linked markers. This new method is computationally tractable at very large sample sizes and leverages genome-wide information. Our findings include a large enrichment of heritability in conserved regions across many traits, a very large immunological disease-specific enrichment of heritability in FANTOM5 enhancers and many cell type-specific enrichments, including significant enrichment of central nervous system cell types in the heritability of body mass index, age at menarche, educational attainment and smoking behavior.

Occupational exposure to solvents, metals and welding fumes and risk of Parkinson's disease.

PubMed

van der Mark, Marianne; Vermeulen, Roel; Nijssen, Peter C G; Mulleners, Wim M; Sas, Antonetta M G; van Laar, Teus; Huss, Anke; Kromhout, Hans

2015-06-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the potential association between occupational exposure to solvents, metals and/or welding fumes and risk of developing Parkinson's disease (PD). Data of a hospital based case-control study including 444 PD patients and 876 age and sex matched controls was used. Occupational histories and lifestyle information of cases and controls were collected in a structured telephone interview. Exposures to aromatic solvents, chlorinated solvents and metals were estimated by linking the ALOHA+ job-exposure matrix to the occupational histories. Exposure to welding fumes was estimated using self-reported information on welding activities. No statistically significant associations with any of the studied metal and solvent exposures were found. However, for self-reported welding activities we observed non-statistically significant reduced risk estimates (third tertile cumulative exposure: OR = 0.51 (95% CI: 0.21-1.24)). The results of our study did not provide support for an increased chance on developing PD after occupational exposure to aromatic solvents, chlorinated solvents or exposure to metals. The results showed reduced risk estimates for welding, which is in line with previous research, but no clear explanation for these findings is available. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulation-based estimates of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of smoking cessation in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

PubMed

Atsou, Kokuvi; Chouaid, Christos; Hejblum, Gilles

2011-01-01

The medico-economic impact of smoking cessation considering a smoking patient with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is poorly documented. Here, considering a COPD smoking patient, the specific burden of continuous smoking was estimated, as well as the effectiveness and the cost-effectiveness of smoking cessation. A multi-state Markov model adopting society's perspective was developed. Simulated cohorts of English COPD patients who are active smokers (all severity stages combined or patients with the same initial severity stage) were compared to identical cohorts of patients who quit smoking at cohort initialization. Life expectancy, quality adjusted life-years (QALY), disease-related costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER: £/QALY) were estimated, considering smoking cessation programs with various possible scenarios of success rates and costs. Sensitivity analyses included the variation of model key parameters. At the horizon of a smoking COPD patient's remaining lifetime, smoking cessation at cohort intitialization, relapses being allowed as observed in practice, would result in gains (mean) of 1.27 life-years and 0.68 QALY, and induce savings of -1824 £/patient in the disease-related costs. The corresponding ICER was -2686 £/QALY. Smoking cessation resulted in 0.72, 0.69, 0.64 and 0.42 QALY respectively gained per mild, moderate, severe, and very severe COPD patient, but was nevertheless cost-effective for mild to severe COPD patients in most scenarios, even when hypothesizing expensive smoking cessation intervention programmes associated with low success rates. Considering a ten-year time horizon, the burden of continuous smoking in English COPD patients was estimated to cost a total of 1657 M£ while 452516 QALY would be simultaneously lost. The study results are a useful support for the setting of smoking cessation programmes specifically targeted to COPD patients.

Restrictive versus liberal red blood cell transfusion strategy after hip surgery: a decision model analysis of healthcare costs.

PubMed

Fusaro, Mario V; Nielsen, Nathan D; Nielsen, Alexandra; Fontaine, Magali J; Hess, John R; Reed, Robert M; DeLisle, Sylvain; Netzer, Giora

2017-02-01

Red blood cell transfusion related to select surgical procedures accounts for approximately 2.8 million transfusions in the United States yearly and occurs commonly after hip fracture surgeries. Randomized controlled trials have demonstrated lack of clinical benefit with higher versus lower transfusion thresholds in postoperative hip fracture repair patients with cardiac disease or risk factors for cardiac disease. The economic implications of a higher versus lower hemoglobin (Hb) threshold have not yet been investigated. A decision tree analysis was constructed to estimate differences in healthcare costs and charges between a Hb transfusion threshold strategy of 8 g/dL versus 10 g/dL from the perspective of both Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) as well as hospitals. Secondary outcome measures included differences in transfusion-related adverse events. Among the 133,697 Medicare beneficiaries undergoing hip fracture repair in 2012, we estimated that 45,457 patients would be anemic and at risk for transfusion. CMS would save an estimated $11.3 million to $24.3 million in payments, while hospitals would reduce charges by an estimated $52.7 million to $93.6 million if the restrictive transfusion strategy were to be implemented nationally. Additionally, rates of transfusion-associated circulatory overload, transfusion-related acute lung injury, acute transfusion reactions, length of stay, and mortality would be reduced. This model suggests that the uniform adoption of a restrictive transfusion strategy among patients with cardiac disease and risk factors for cardiac disease undergoing hip fracture repair would result in significant reductions in clinically important outcomes with significant cost savings. © 2016 AABB.

Cancer-associated bone disease.

PubMed

Rizzoli, R; Body, J-J; Brandi, M-L; Cannata-Andia, J; Chappard, D; El Maghraoui, A; Glüer, C C; Kendler, D; Napoli, N; Papaioannou, A; Pierroz, D D; Rahme, M; Van Poznak, C H; de Villiers, T J; El Hajj Fuleihan, G

2013-12-01

Bone is commonly affected in cancer. Cancer-induced bone disease results from the primary disease, or from therapies against the primary condition, causing bone fragility. Bone-modifying agents, such as bisphosphonates and denosumab, are efficacious in preventing and delaying cancer-related bone disease. With evidence-based care pathways, guidelines assist physicians in clinical decision-making. Of the 57 million deaths in 2008 worldwide, almost two thirds were due to non-communicable diseases, led by cardiovascular diseases and cancers. Bone is a commonly affected organ in cancer, and although the incidence of metastatic bone disease is not well defined, it is estimated that around half of patients who die from cancer in the USA each year have bone involvement. Furthermore, cancer-induced bone disease can result from the primary disease itself, either due to circulating bone resorbing substances or metastatic bone disease, such as commonly occurs with breast, lung and prostate cancer, or from therapies administered to treat the primary condition thus causing bone loss and fractures. Treatment-induced osteoporosis may occur in the setting of glucocorticoid therapy or oestrogen deprivation therapy, chemotherapy-induced ovarian failure and androgen deprivation therapy. Tumour skeletal-related events include pathologic fractures, spinal cord compression, surgery and radiotherapy to bone and may or may not include hypercalcaemia of malignancy while skeletal complication refers to pain and other symptoms. Some evidence demonstrates the efficacy of various interventions including bone-modifying agents, such as bisphosphonates and denosumab, in preventing or delaying cancer-related bone disease. The latter includes treatment of patients with metastatic skeletal lesions in general, adjuvant treatment of breast and prostate cancer in particular, and the prevention of cancer-associated bone disease. This has led to the development of guidelines by several societies and working groups to assist physicians in clinical decision making, providing them with evidence-based care pathways to prevent skeletal-related events and bone loss. The goal of this paper is to put forth an IOF position paper addressing bone diseases and cancer and summarizing the position papers of other organizations.

The Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl and Its Use to Estimate the Health Impact of Public Health Policy Scenarios

PubMed Central

Scarborough, Peter; Harrington, Richard A.; Mizdrak, Anja; Zhou, Lijuan Marissa; Doherty, Aiden

2014-01-01

Noncommunicable disease (NCD) scenario models are an essential part of the public health toolkit, allowing for an estimate of the health impact of population-level interventions that are not amenable to assessment by standard epidemiological study designs (e.g., health-related food taxes and physical infrastructure projects) and extrapolating results from small samples to the whole population. The PRIME (Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl) is an openly available NCD scenario model that estimates the effect of population-level changes in diet, physical activity, and alcohol and tobacco consumption on NCD mortality. The structure and methods employed in the PRIME are described here in detail, including the development of open source code that will support a PRIME web application to be launched in 2015. This paper reviews scenario results from eleven papers that have used the PRIME, including estimates of the impact of achieving government recommendations for healthy diets, health-related food taxes and subsidies, and low-carbon diets. Future challenges for NCD scenario modelling, including the need for more comparisons between models and the improvement of future prediction of NCD rates, are also discussed. PMID:25328757

Short-term effect of severe exposure to methylmercury on atherosclerotic heart disease and hypertension mortality in Minamata.

PubMed

Inoue, Sachiko; Yorifuji, Takashi; Tsuda, Toshihide; Doi, Hiroyuki

2012-02-15

Recent studies suggest potential adverse effects of methylmercury exposure on myocardial infarction and hypertension, although the evidence is still limited. We thus evaluated this association using age-standardized mortality ratios (ASMRs) in Minamata, where severe methylmercury poisoning had occurred. We obtained mortality data from annual vital statistics and demographic statistics from census. We then compared mortality of atherosclerotic heart disease including degenerative heart disease and hypertension in Minamata-city with those in Kumamoto Prefecture, which includes Minamata city, as a control. We estimated ASMRs and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) during the period from 1953 to 1970. ASMRs of atherosclerotic heart disease were continuously decreased during the period from 1953 to 1967. In contrast, the ASMR of hypertension was significantly elevated during the period from 1963 to 1967 (SMR=1.38, CI; 1.06-1.80); but they decreased later. Although dilution is present in this ecological study, our study supports the notion that methylmercury exposure induces hypertension. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Regional-level estimation of expected years of life lost attributable to overweight and obesity among Mexican adults.

PubMed

Murillo-Zamora, Efrén; García-Ceballos, Raúl; Delgado-Enciso, Iván; Garza-Guajardo, Raquel; Barboza-Quintana, Oralia; Rodríguez-Sánchez, Irám P; Mendoza-Cano, Oliver

2016-01-01

Excess body weight has become a major public health problem worldwide, and the burden of overweight and obesity was calculated in this work from a health economics perspective. To estimate the burden of disease attributable to overweight and obesity among males and females aged 20 years and older using years of life lost (YLL) and age-standardized YLL rates (ASYLL), and to rank the leading causes of premature death. A cross-sectional study took place (2010-2014) and 6,054 deaths were analyzed. Thirteen basic causes of death associated with overweight or obesity were included. The population attributable fraction (PAF), YLL, and ASYLL were calculated. The overall burden attributable to overweight and obesity was 36,087 YLL, and the estimated ASYLL per 10,000 persons was 1,098 and 1,029 in males and females, respectively. Type 2 diabetes mellitus was the main cause of premature death (males, 968 ASYLL; females, 772 ASYLL). Overweight and obesity are major risk factors of chronic diseases that are main causes of premature death in the study population. Strategies for preventing overweight and obesity may decrease the incidence and mortality associated with these non-communicable diseases. ASYLL seems to be an indicator that is particularly well adapted to decision-making in public health.

Examining the reliability of ADAS-Cog change scores.

PubMed

Grochowalski, Joseph H; Liu, Ying; Siedlecki, Karen L

2016-09-01

The purpose of this study was to estimate and examine ways to improve the reliability of change scores on the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale, Cognitive Subtest (ADAS-Cog). The sample, provided by the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, included individuals with Alzheimer's disease (AD) (n = 153) and individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) (n = 352). All participants were administered the ADAS-Cog at baseline and 1 year, and change scores were calculated as the difference in scores over the 1-year period. Three types of change score reliabilities were estimated using multivariate generalizability. Two methods to increase change score reliability were evaluated: reweighting the subtests of the scale and adding more subtests. Reliability of ADAS-Cog change scores over 1 year was low for both the AD sample (ranging from .53 to .64) and the MCI sample (.39 to .61). Reweighting the change scores from the AD sample improved reliability (.68 to .76), but lengthening provided no useful improvement for either sample. The MCI change scores had low reliability, even with reweighting and adding additional subtests. The ADAS-Cog scores had low reliability for measuring change. Researchers using the ADAS-Cog should estimate and report reliability for their use of the change scores. The ADAS-Cog change scores are not recommended for assessment of meaningful clinical change.

Policy evaluation in diabetes prevention and treatment using a population-based macro simulation model: the MICADO model.

PubMed

van der Heijden, A A W A; Feenstra, T L; Hoogenveen, R T; Niessen, L W; de Bruijne, M C; Dekker, J M; Baan, C A; Nijpels, G

2015-12-01

To test a simulation model, the MICADO model, for estimating the long-term effects of interventions in people with and without diabetes. The MICADO model includes micro- and macrovascular diseases in relation to their risk factors. The strengths of this model are its population scope and the possibility to assess parameter uncertainty using probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Outcomes include incidence and prevalence of complications, quality of life, costs and cost-effectiveness. We externally validated MICADO's estimates of micro- and macrovascular complications in a Dutch cohort with diabetes (n = 498,400) by comparing these estimates with national and international empirical data. For the annual number of people undergoing amputations, MICADO's estimate was 592 (95% interquantile range 291-842), which compared well with the registered number of people with diabetes-related amputations in the Netherlands (728). The incidence of end-stage renal disease estimated using the MICADO model was 247 people (95% interquartile range 120-363), which was also similar to the registered incidence in the Netherlands (277 people). MICADO performed well in the validation of macrovascular outcomes of population-based cohorts, while it had more difficulty in reflecting a highly selected trial population. Validation by comparison with independent empirical data showed that the MICADO model simulates the natural course of diabetes and its micro- and macrovascular complications well. As a population-based model, MICADO can be applied for projections as well as scenario analyses to evaluate the long-term (cost-)effectiveness of population-level interventions targeting diabetes and its complications in the Netherlands or similar countries. © 2015 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine © 2015 Diabetes UK.

The estimated mortality impact of vaccinations forecast to be administered during 2011-2020 in 73 countries supported by the GAVI Alliance.

PubMed

Lee, Lisa A; Franzel, Lauren; Atwell, Jessica; Datta, S Deblina; Friberg, Ingrid K; Goldie, Sue J; Reef, Susan E; Schwalbe, Nina; Simons, Emily; Strebel, Peter M; Sweet, Steven; Suraratdecha, Chutima; Tam, Yvonne; Vynnycky, Emilia; Walker, Neff; Walker, Damian G; Hansen, Peter M

2013-04-18

From August to December 2011, a multidisciplinary group with expertise in mathematical modeling was constituted by the GAVI Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to estimate the impact of vaccination in 73 countries supported by the GAVI Alliance. The number of deaths averted in persons projected to be vaccinated during 2011-2020 was estimated for ten antigens: hepatitis B, yellow fever, Haemophilus influenzae type B (Hib), Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, Japanese encephalitis, human papillomavirus, measles, and rubella. Impact was calculated as the difference in the number of deaths expected over the lifetime of vaccinated cohorts compared to the number of deaths expected in those cohorts with no vaccination. Numbers of persons vaccinated were based on 2011 GAVI Strategic Demand Forecasts with projected dates of vaccine introductions, vaccination coverage, and target population size in each country. By 2020, nearly all GAVI-supported countries with endemic disease are projected to have introduced hepatitis B, Hib, pneumococcal, rotavirus, rubella, yellow fever, N. meningitidis serogroup A, and Japanese encephalitis-containing vaccines; 55 (75 percent) countries are projected to have introduced human papillomavirus vaccine. Projected use of these vaccines during 2011-2020 is expected to avert an estimated 9.9 million deaths. Routine and supplementary immunization activities with measles vaccine are expected to avert an additional 13.4 million deaths. Estimated numbers of deaths averted per 1000 persons vaccinated were highest for first-dose measles (16.5), human papillomavirus (15.1), and hepatitis B (8.3) vaccination. Approximately 52 percent of the expected deaths averted will be in Africa, 27 percent in Southeast Asia, and 13 percent in the Eastern Mediterranean. Vaccination of persons during 2011-2020 in 73 GAVI-eligible countries is expected to have substantial public health impact, particularly in Africa and Southeast Asia, two regions with high mortality. The actual impact of vaccination in these countries may be higher than our estimates because several widely used antigens were not included in the analysis. The quality of our estimates is limited by lack of data on underlying disease burden and vaccine effectiveness against fatal disease outcomes in developing countries. We plan to update the estimates annually to reflect updated demand forecasts, to refine model assumptions based on results of new information, and to extend the analysis to include morbidity and economic benefits. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

What is the added value of ultrasound joint examination for monitoring synovitis in rheumatoid arthritis and can it be used to guide treatment decisions? A systematic review and cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Simpson, Emma; Hock, Emma; Stevenson, Matt; Wong, Ruth; Dracup, Naila; Wailoo, Allan; Conaghan, Philip; Estrach, Cristina; Edwards, Christopher; Wakefield, Richard

2018-04-01

Synovitis (inflamed joint synovial lining) in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) can be assessed by clinical examination (CE) or ultrasound (US). To investigate the added value of US, compared with CE alone, in RA synovitis in terms of clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. Electronic databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane databases were searched from inception to October 2015. A systematic review sought RA studies that compared additional US with CE. Heterogeneity of the studies with regard to interventions, comparators and outcomes precluded meta-analyses. Systematic searches for studies of cost-effectiveness and US and treatment-tapering studies (not necessarily including US) were undertaken. A model was constructed that estimated, for patients in whom drug tapering was considered, the reduction in costs of disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (DMARDs) and serious infections at which the addition of US had a cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained of £20,000 and £30,000. Furthermore, the reduction in the costs of DMARDs at which US becomes cost neutral was also estimated. For patients in whom dose escalation was being considered, the reduction in number of patients escalating treatment and in serious infections at which the addition of US had a cost per QALY gained of £20,000 and £30,000 was estimated. The reduction in number of patients escalating treatment for US to become cost neutral was also estimated. Fifty-eight studies were included. Two randomised controlled trials compared adding US to a Disease Activity Score (DAS)-based treat-to-target strategy for early RA patients. The addition of power Doppler ultrasound (PDUS) to a Disease Activity Score 28 joints-based treat-to-target strategy in the Targeting Synovitis in Early Rheumatoid Arthritis (TaSER) trial resulted in no significant between-group difference for change in Disease Activity Score 44 joints (DAS44). This study found that significantly more patients in the PDUS group attained DAS44 remission ( p  = 0.03). The Aiming for Remission in Rheumatoid Arthritis (ARCTIC) trial found that the addition of PDUS and grey-scale ultrasound (GSUS) to a DAS-based strategy did not produce a significant between-group difference in the primary end point: composite DAS of < 1.6, no swollen joints and no progression in van der Heijde-modified total Sharp score (vdHSS). The ARCTIC trial did find that the erosion score of the vdHS had a significant advantage for the US group ( p  = 0.04). In the TaSER trial there was no significant group difference for erosion. Other studies suggested that PDUS was significantly associated with radiographic progression and that US had added value for wrist and hand joints rather than foot and ankle joints. Heterogeneity between trials made conclusions uncertain. No studies were identified that reported the cost-effectiveness of US in monitoring synovitis. The model estimated that an average reduction of 2.5% in the costs of biological DMARDs would be sufficient to offset the costs of 3-monthly US. The money could not be recouped if oral methotrexate was the only drug used. Heterogeneity of the trials precluded meta-analysis. Therefore, no summary estimates of effect were available. Additional costs and health-related quality of life decrements, relating to a flare following tapering or disease progression, have not been included. The feasibility of increased US monitoring has not been assessed. Limited evidence suggests that US monitoring of synovitis could provide a cost-effective approach to selecting RA patients for treatment tapering or escalation avoidance. Considerable uncertainty exists for all conclusions. Future research priorities include evaluating US monitoring of RA synovitis in longitudinal clinical studies. This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42015017216. The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Spatial variation in attributable risks.

PubMed

Congdon, Peter

2015-01-01

The attributable risk (AR) measures the contribution of a particular risk factor to a disease, and allows estimation of disease rates specific to that risk. While previous studies consider variability in ARs over demographic categories, this paper considers the extent of spatial variability in ARs estimated from multilevel data with confounders both at individual and geographic levels. A case study considers the AR for diabetes in relation to elevated BMI, and area rates for diabetes attributable to excess weight. Contextual adjustment includes known area variables, and unobserved spatially clustered influences, while spatial heterogeneity (effect modification) is considered in terms of varying effects of elevated BMI by neighbourhood deprivation category. The application is to patient register data in London, with clear evidence of spatial variation in ARs, and in small area diabetes rates attributable to excess weight. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Drug management for coronary artery disease in the elderly].

PubMed

Meune, C

2006-11-01

The incidence of side effects increases dramatically with age. It is estimated that almost one third of side effects could be avoided by an appropriate prescription. On the other hand, age is the main factor associated to the non-prescription of major pharmacological classes, which have evidenced their efficacy in younger patients with coronary artery disease. The estimation of the benefit/risk ratio is therefore highly important in the old/very old patient. It seems important to integrate the results of studies and registries including old patients, evidencing the efficacy of the majority of pharmacological classes validated in younger patients, especially antiplatelets, beta-blockers and statins. The assessment of the benefit/risk ratio should also take into account the tolerance profile of the drug and the patient. The prescription should be adapted to the "age-related" changes of pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics.

Cost and economic burden of illness over 15 years in Nepal: A comparative analysis.

PubMed

Swe, Khin Thet; Rahman, Md Mizanur; Rahman, Md Shafiur; Saito, Eiko; Abe, Sarah K; Gilmour, Stuart; Shibuya, Kenji

2018-01-01

With an increasing burden of non-communicable disease in Nepal and limited progress towards universal health coverage, country- and disease-specific estimates of financial hardship related to healthcare costs need to be evaluated to protect the population effectively from healthcare-related financial burden. To estimate the cost and economic burden of illness and to assess the inequality in the financial burden due to catastrophic health expenditure from 1995 to 2010 in Nepal. This study used nationally representative Nepal Living Standards Surveys conducted in 1995 and 2010. A Bayesian two-stage hurdle model was used to estimate average cost of illness and Bayesian logistic regression models were used to estimate the disease-specific incidence of catastrophic health payment and impoverishment. The concentration curve and index were estimated by disease category to examine inequality in healthcare-related financial hardship. Inflation-adjusted mean out-of-pocket (OOP) payments for chronic illness and injury increased by 4.6% and 7.3%, respectively, while the cost of recent acute illness declined by 1.5% between 1995 and 2010. Injury showed the highest incidence of catastrophic expenditure (30.7% in 1995 and 22.4% in 2010) followed by chronic illness (12.0% in 1995 and 9.6% in 2010) and recent acute illness (21.1% in 1995 and 7.8% in 2010). Asthma, diabetes, heart conditions, malaria, jaundice and parasitic illnesses showed increased catastrophic health expenditure over time. Impoverishment due to injury declined most (by 12% change in average annual rate) followed by recent acute illness (9.7%) and chronic illness (9.6%) in 15 years. Inequality analysis indicated that poorer populations with recent acute illness suffered more catastrophic health expenditure in both sample years, while wealthier households with injury and chronic illnesses suffered more catastrophic health expenditure in 2010. To minimize the economic burden of illness, several approaches need to be adopted, including social health insurance complemented with an upgraded community-based health insurance system, subsidy program expansion for diseases with high economic burden and third party liability motor insurance to reduce the economic burden of injury.

Cost and economic burden of illness over 15 years in Nepal: A comparative analysis

PubMed Central

Rahman, Md. Mizanur; Rahman, Md. Shafiur; Saito, Eiko; Abe, Sarah K.; Gilmour, Stuart; Shibuya, Kenji

2018-01-01

Background With an increasing burden of non-communicable disease in Nepal and limited progress towards universal health coverage, country- and disease-specific estimates of financial hardship related to healthcare costs need to be evaluated to protect the population effectively from healthcare-related financial burden. Objectives To estimate the cost and economic burden of illness and to assess the inequality in the financial burden due to catastrophic health expenditure from 1995 to 2010 in Nepal. Methods This study used nationally representative Nepal Living Standards Surveys conducted in 1995 and 2010. A Bayesian two-stage hurdle model was used to estimate average cost of illness and Bayesian logistic regression models were used to estimate the disease-specific incidence of catastrophic health payment and impoverishment. The concentration curve and index were estimated by disease category to examine inequality in healthcare-related financial hardship. Findings Inflation-adjusted mean out-of-pocket (OOP) payments for chronic illness and injury increased by 4.6% and 7.3%, respectively, while the cost of recent acute illness declined by 1.5% between 1995 and 2010. Injury showed the highest incidence of catastrophic expenditure (30.7% in 1995 and 22.4% in 2010) followed by chronic illness (12.0% in 1995 and 9.6% in 2010) and recent acute illness (21.1% in 1995 and 7.8% in 2010). Asthma, diabetes, heart conditions, malaria, jaundice and parasitic illnesses showed increased catastrophic health expenditure over time. Impoverishment due to injury declined most (by 12% change in average annual rate) followed by recent acute illness (9.7%) and chronic illness (9.6%) in 15 years. Inequality analysis indicated that poorer populations with recent acute illness suffered more catastrophic health expenditure in both sample years, while wealthier households with injury and chronic illnesses suffered more catastrophic health expenditure in 2010. Conclusion To minimize the economic burden of illness, several approaches need to be adopted, including social health insurance complemented with an upgraded community-based health insurance system, subsidy program expansion for diseases with high economic burden and third party liability motor insurance to reduce the economic burden of injury. PMID:29617393

Magnetic resonance imaging and liver histology as biomarkers of hepatic steatosis in children with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

PubMed

Schwimmer, Jeffrey B; Middleton, Michael S; Behling, Cynthia; Newton, Kimberly P; Awai, Hannah I; Paiz, Melissa N; Lam, Jessica; Hooker, Jonathan C; Hamilton, Gavin; Fontanesi, John; Sirlin, Claude B

2015-06-01

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common chronic liver disease in children. In order to advance the field of NAFLD, noninvasive imaging methods for measuring liver fat are needed. Advanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has shown great promise for the quantitative assessment of hepatic steatosis but has not been validated in children. Therefore, this study was designed to evaluate the correlation and diagnostic accuracy of MRI-estimated liver proton density fat fraction (PDFF), a biomarker for hepatic steatosis, compared to histologic steatosis grade in children. The study included 174 children with a mean age of 14.0 years. Liver PDFF estimated by MRI was significantly (P < 0.01) correlated (0.725) with steatosis grade. The correlation of MRI-estimated liver PDFF and steatosis grade was influenced by both sex and fibrosis stage. The correlation was significantly (P < 0.01) stronger in girls (0.86) than in boys (0.70). The correlation was significantly (P < 0.01) weaker in children with stage 2-4 fibrosis (0.61) than children with no fibrosis (0.76) or stage 1 fibrosis (0.78). The diagnostic accuracy of commonly used threshold values to distinguish between no steatosis and mild steatosis ranged from 0.69 to 0.82. The overall accuracy of predicting the histologic steatosis grade from MRI-estimated liver PDFF was 56%. No single threshold had sufficient sensitivity and specificity to be considered diagnostic for an individual child. Advanced magnitude-based MRI can be used to estimate liver PDFF in children, and those PDFF values correlate well with steatosis grade by liver histology. Thus, magnitude-based MRI has the potential for clinical utility in the evaluation of NAFLD, but at this time no single threshold value has sufficient accuracy to be considered diagnostic for an individual child. © 2015 by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

77 FR 38843 - Submission for OMB Review; Comment Request: Post-Award Reporting Requirements Including New...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-06-29

... 1995, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) has submitted to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB..., Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) grantees... investigators. The annual reporting burden is as follows: Total Estimated Number of Respondents: 112,986...

77 FR 41985 - Use of Influenza Disease Models To Quantitatively Evaluate the Benefits and Risks of Vaccines: A...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-07-17

... Evaluation and Research (CBER) and suggestions for further development. The public workshop will include... Evaluation and Research (HFM-210), Food and Drug Administration, 1401 Rockville Pike, suite 200N, Rockville... models to generate quantitative estimates of the benefits and risks of influenza vaccination. The public...

Family-oriented cardiac risk estimator: a Java web-based applet.

PubMed

Crouch, Michael A; Jadhav, Ashwin

2003-01-01

We developed a Java applet that calculates four different estimates of a person's 10-year risk for heart attack: (1) Estimate based on Framingham equation (2) Framingham equation estimate modified by C-reactive protein (CRP) level (3) Framingham estimate modified by family history of heart disease in parents or siblings (4) Framingham estimate modified by both CRP and family heart disease history. This web-based, family-oriented cardiac risk estimator uniquely considers family history and CRP while estimating risk.

Pretest expectations strongly influence interpretation of abnormal laboratory results and further management

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Abnormal results of diagnostic laboratory tests can be difficult to interpret when disease probability is very low. Although most physicians generally do not use Bayesian calculations to interpret abnormal results, their estimates of pretest disease probability and reasons for ordering diagnostic tests may - in a more implicit manner - influence test interpretation and further management. A better understanding of this influence may help to improve test interpretation and management. Therefore, the objective of this study was to examine the influence of physicians' pretest disease probability estimates, and their reasons for ordering diagnostic tests, on test result interpretation, posttest probability estimates and further management. Methods Prospective study among 87 primary care physicians in the Netherlands who each ordered laboratory tests for 25 patients. They recorded their reasons for ordering the tests (to exclude or confirm disease or to reassure patients) and their pretest disease probability estimates. Upon receiving the results they recorded how they interpreted the tests, their posttest probability estimates and further management. Logistic regression was used to analyse whether the pretest probability and the reasons for ordering tests influenced the interpretation, the posttest probability estimates and the decisions on further management. Results The physicians ordered tests for diagnostic purposes for 1253 patients; 742 patients had an abnormal result (64%). Physicians' pretest probability estimates and their reasons for ordering diagnostic tests influenced test interpretation, posttest probability estimates and further management. Abnormal results of tests ordered for reasons of reassurance were significantly more likely to be interpreted as normal (65.8%) compared to tests ordered to confirm a diagnosis or exclude a disease (27.7% and 50.9%, respectively). The odds for abnormal results to be interpreted as normal were much lower when the physician estimated a high pretest disease probability, compared to a low pretest probability estimate (OR = 0.18, 95% CI = 0.07-0.52, p < 0.001). Conclusions Interpretation and management of abnormal test results were strongly influenced by physicians' estimation of pretest disease probability and by the reason for ordering the test. By relating abnormal laboratory results to their pretest expectations, physicians may seek a balance between over- and under-reacting to laboratory test results. PMID:20158908

Pretest expectations strongly influence interpretation of abnormal laboratory results and further management.

PubMed

Houben, Paul H H; van der Weijden, Trudy; Winkens, Bjorn; Winkens, Ron A G; Grol, Richard P T M

2010-02-16

Abnormal results of diagnostic laboratory tests can be difficult to interpret when disease probability is very low. Although most physicians generally do not use Bayesian calculations to interpret abnormal results, their estimates of pretest disease probability and reasons for ordering diagnostic tests may--in a more implicit manner--influence test interpretation and further management. A better understanding of this influence may help to improve test interpretation and management. Therefore, the objective of this study was to examine the influence of physicians' pretest disease probability estimates, and their reasons for ordering diagnostic tests, on test result interpretation, posttest probability estimates and further management. Prospective study among 87 primary care physicians in the Netherlands who each ordered laboratory tests for 25 patients. They recorded their reasons for ordering the tests (to exclude or confirm disease or to reassure patients) and their pretest disease probability estimates. Upon receiving the results they recorded how they interpreted the tests, their posttest probability estimates and further management. Logistic regression was used to analyse whether the pretest probability and the reasons for ordering tests influenced the interpretation, the posttest probability estimates and the decisions on further management. The physicians ordered tests for diagnostic purposes for 1253 patients; 742 patients had an abnormal result (64%). Physicians' pretest probability estimates and their reasons for ordering diagnostic tests influenced test interpretation, posttest probability estimates and further management. Abnormal results of tests ordered for reasons of reassurance were significantly more likely to be interpreted as normal (65.8%) compared to tests ordered to confirm a diagnosis or exclude a disease (27.7% and 50.9%, respectively). The odds for abnormal results to be interpreted as normal were much lower when the physician estimated a high pretest disease probability, compared to a low pretest probability estimate (OR = 0.18, 95% CI = 0.07-0.52, p < 0.001). Interpretation and management of abnormal test results were strongly influenced by physicians' estimation of pretest disease probability and by the reason for ordering the test. By relating abnormal laboratory results to their pretest expectations, physicians may seek a balance between over- and under-reacting to laboratory test results.

Scoping the Impact of Changes in Population Age-Structure on the Future Burden of Foodborne Disease in The Netherlands, 2020–2060

PubMed Central

Bouwknegt, Martijn; van Pelt, Wilfrid; Havelaar, Arie H.

2013-01-01

A demographic shift towards a larger proportion of elderly in the Dutch population in the coming decades might change foodborne disease incidence and mortality. In the current study we focused on the age-specific changes in the occurrence of foodborne pathogens by combining age-specific demographic forecasts for 10-year periods between 2020 and 2060 with current age-specific infection probabilities for Campylobacter spp., non-typhoidal Salmonella, hepatitis A virus, acquired Toxoplasma gondii and Listeria monocytogenes. Disease incidence rates for the former three pathogens were estimated to change marginally, because increases and decreases in specific age groups cancelled out over all ages. Estimated incidence of reported cases per 100,000 for 2060 mounted to 12 (Salmonella), 51 (Campylobacter), 1.1 (hepatitis A virus) and 2.1 (Toxoplasma). For L. monocytogenes, incidence increased by 45% from 0.41 per 100,000 in 2011 to 0.60 per 100,000. Estimated mortality rates increased two-fold for Salmonella and Campylobacter to 0.5 and 0.7 per 100,000, and increased by 25% for Listeria from 0.06 to 0.08. This straightforward scoping effort does not suggest major changes in incidence and mortality for these food borne pathogens based on changes in de population age-structure as independent factor. Other factors, such as changes in health care systems, social clustering and food processing and preparation, could not be included in the estimates. PMID:23851976

Scoping the impact of changes in population age-structure on the future burden of foodborne disease in the Netherlands, 2020-2060.

PubMed

Bouwknegt, Martijn; van Pelt, Wilfrid; Havelaar, Arie H

2013-07-11

A demographic shift towards a larger proportion of elderly in the Dutch population in the coming decades might change foodborne disease incidence and mortality. In the current study we focused on the age-specific changes in the occurrence of foodborne pathogens by combining age-specific demographic forecasts for 10-year periods between 2020 and 2060 with current age-specific infection probabilities for Campylobacter spp., non-typhoidal Salmonella, hepatitis A virus, acquired Toxoplasma gondii and Listeria monocytogenes. Disease incidence rates for the former three pathogens were estimated to change marginally, because increases and decreases in specific age groups cancelled out over all ages. Estimated incidence of reported cases per 100,000 for 2060 mounted to 12 (Salmonella), 51 (Campylobacter), 1.1 (hepatitis A virus) and 2.1 (Toxoplasma). For L. monocytogenes, incidence increased by 45% from 0.41 per 100,000 in 2011 to 0.60 per 100,000. Estimated mortality rates increased two-fold for Salmonella and Campylobacter to 0.5 and 0.7 per 100,000, and increased by 25% for Listeria from 0.06 to 0.08. This straightforward scoping effort does not suggest major changes in incidence and mortality for these food borne pathogens based on changes in de population age-structure as independent factor. Other factors, such as changes in health care systems, social clustering and food processing and preparation, could not be included in the estimates.

The Global Economic and Health Burden of Human Hookworm Infection.

PubMed

Bartsch, Sarah M; Hotez, Peter J; Asti, Lindsey; Zapf, Kristina M; Bottazzi, Maria Elena; Diemert, David J; Lee, Bruce Y

2016-09-01

Even though human hookworm infection is highly endemic in many countries throughout the world, its global economic and health impact is not well known. Without a better understanding of hookworm's economic burden worldwide, it is difficult for decision makers such as funders, policy makers, disease control officials, and intervention manufacturers to determine how much time, energy, and resources to invest in hookworm control. We developed a computational simulation model to estimate the economic and health burden of hookworm infection in every country, WHO region, and globally, in 2016 from the societal perspective. Globally, hookworm infection resulted in a total 2,126,280 DALYs using 2004 disability weight estimates and 4,087,803 DALYs using 2010 disability weight estimates (excluding cognitive impairment outcomes). Including cognitive impairment did not significantly increase DALYs worldwide. Total productivity losses varied with the probability of anemia and calculation method used, ranging from $7.5 billion to $138.9 billion annually using gross national income per capita as a proxy for annual wages and ranging from $2.5 billion to $43.9 billion using minimum wage as a proxy for annual wages. Even though hookworm is classified as a neglected tropical disease, its economic and health burden exceeded published estimates for a number of diseases that have received comparatively more attention than hookworm such as rotavirus. Additionally, certain large countries that are transitioning to higher income countries such as Brazil and China, still face considerable hookworm burden.

The Global Economic and Health Burden of Human Hookworm Infection

PubMed Central

Bartsch, Sarah M.; Hotez, Peter J.; Asti, Lindsey; Zapf, Kristina M.; Bottazzi, Maria Elena; Diemert, David J.; Lee, Bruce Y.

2016-01-01

Background Even though human hookworm infection is highly endemic in many countries throughout the world, its global economic and health impact is not well known. Without a better understanding of hookworm’s economic burden worldwide, it is difficult for decision makers such as funders, policy makers, disease control officials, and intervention manufacturers to determine how much time, energy, and resources to invest in hookworm control. Methodology/Principle Findings We developed a computational simulation model to estimate the economic and health burden of hookworm infection in every country, WHO region, and globally, in 2016 from the societal perspective. Globally, hookworm infection resulted in a total 2,126,280 DALYs using 2004 disability weight estimates and 4,087,803 DALYs using 2010 disability weight estimates (excluding cognitive impairment outcomes). Including cognitive impairment did not significantly increase DALYs worldwide. Total productivity losses varied with the probability of anemia and calculation method used, ranging from $7.5 billion to $138.9 billion annually using gross national income per capita as a proxy for annual wages and ranging from $2.5 billion to $43.9 billion using minimum wage as a proxy for annual wages. Conclusion Even though hookworm is classified as a neglected tropical disease, its economic and health burden exceeded published estimates for a number of diseases that have received comparatively more attention than hookworm such as rotavirus. Additionally, certain large countries that are transitioning to higher income countries such as Brazil and China, still face considerable hookworm burden. PMID:27607360

Assessing the sensitivity of bovine tuberculosis surveillance in Canada's cattle population, 2009-2013.

PubMed

El Allaki, Farouk; Harrington, Noel; Howden, Krista

2016-11-01

The objectives of this study were (1) to estimate the annual sensitivity of Canada's bTB surveillance system and its three system components (slaughter surveillance, export testing and disease investigation) using a scenario tree modelling approach, and (2) to identify key model parameters that influence the estimates of the surveillance system sensitivity (SSSe). To achieve these objectives, we designed stochastic scenario tree models for three surveillance system components included in the analysis. Demographic data, slaughter data, export testing data, and disease investigation data from 2009 to 2013 were extracted for input into the scenario trees. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify key influential parameters on SSSe estimates. The median annual SSSe estimates generated from the study were very high, ranging from 0.95 (95% probability interval [PI]: 0.88-0.98) to 0.97 (95% PI: 0.93-0.99). Median annual sensitivity estimates for the slaughter surveillance component ranged from 0.95 (95% PI: 0.88-0.98) to 0.97 (95% PI: 0.93-0.99). This shows that slaughter surveillance to be the major contributor to overall surveillance system sensitivity with a high probability to detect M. bovis infection if present at a prevalence of 0.00028% or greater during the study period. The export testing and disease investigation components had extremely low component sensitivity estimates-the maximum median sensitivity estimates were 0.02 (95% PI: 0.014-0.023) and 0.0061 (95% PI: 0.0056-0.0066) respectively. The three most influential input parameters on the model's output (SSSe) were the probability of a granuloma being detected at slaughter inspection, the probability of a granuloma being present in older animals (≥12 months of age), and the probability of a granuloma sample being submitted to the laboratory. Additional studies are required to reduce the levels of uncertainty and variability associated with these three parameters influencing the surveillance system sensitivity. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Knowns and unknowns on burden of disease due to chemicals: a systematic review

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Continuous exposure to many chemicals, including through air, water, food, or other media and products results in health impacts which have been well assessed, however little is known about the total disease burden related to chemicals. This is important to know for overall policy actions and priorities. In this article the known burden related to selected chemicals or their mixtures, main data gaps, and the link to public health policy are reviewed. Methods A systematic review of the literature for global burden of disease estimates from chemicals was conducted. Global disease due to chemicals was estimated using standard methodology of the Global Burden of Disease. Results In total, 4.9 million deaths (8.3% of total) and 86 million Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) (5.7% of total) were attributable to environmental exposure and management of selected chemicals in 2004. The largest contributors include indoor smoke from solid fuel use, outdoor air pollution and second-hand smoke, with 2.0, 1.2 and 0.6 million deaths annually. These are followed by occupational particulates, chemicals involved in acute poisonings, and pesticides involved in self-poisonings, with 375,000, 240,000 and 186,000 annual deaths, respectively. Conclusions The known burden due to chemicals is considerable. This information supports decision-making in programmes having a role to play in reducing human exposure to toxic chemicals. These figures present only a number of chemicals for which data are available, therefore, they are more likely an underestimate of the actual burden. Chemicals with known health effects, such as dioxins, cadmium, mercury or chronic exposure to pesticides could not be included in this article due to incomplete data and information. Effective public health interventions are known to manage chemicals and limit their public health impacts and should be implemented at national and international levels. PMID:21255392

Overdiagnosis across medical disciplines: a scoping review.

PubMed

Jenniskens, Kevin; de Groot, Joris A H; Reitsma, Johannes B; Moons, Karel G M; Hooft, Lotty; Naaktgeboren, Christiana A

2017-12-27

To provide insight into how and in what clinical fields overdiagnosis is studied and give directions for further applied and methodological research. Scoping review. Medline up to August 2017. All English studies on humans, in which overdiagnosis was discussed as a dominant theme. Studies were assessed on clinical field, study aim (ie, methodological or non-methodological), article type (eg, primary study, review), the type and role of diagnostic test(s) studied and the context in which these studies discussed overdiagnosis. From 4896 studies, 1851 were included for analysis. Half of all studies on overdiagnosis were performed in the field of oncology (50%). Other prevalent clinical fields included mental disorders, infectious diseases and cardiovascular diseases accounting for 9%, 8% and 6% of studies, respectively. Overdiagnosis was addressed from a methodological perspective in 20% of studies. Primary studies were the most common article type (58%). The type of diagnostic tests most commonly studied were imaging tests (32%), although these were predominantly seen in oncology and cardiovascular disease (84%). Diagnostic tests were studied in a screening setting in 43% of all studies, but as high as 75% of all oncological studies. The context in which studies addressed overdiagnosis related most frequently to its estimation, accounting for 53%. Methodology on overdiagnosis estimation and definition provided a source for extensive discussion. Other contexts of discussion included definition of disease, overdiagnosis communication, trends in increasing disease prevalence, drivers and consequences of overdiagnosis, incidental findings and genomics. Overdiagnosis is discussed across virtually all clinical fields and in different contexts. The variability in characteristics between studies and lack of consensus on overdiagnosis definition indicate the need for a uniform typology to improve coherence and comparability of studies on overdiagnosis. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Association between lifetime exposure to inorganic arsenic in drinking water and coronary heart disease in Colorado residents.

PubMed

James, Katherine A; Byers, Tim; Hokanson, John E; Meliker, Jaymie R; Zerbe, Gary O; Marshall, Julie A

2015-02-01

Chronic diseases, including coronary heart disease (CHD), have been associated with ingestion of drinking water with high levels of inorganic arsenic (> 1,000 μg/L). However, associations have been inconclusive in populations with lower levels (< 100 μg/L) of inorganic arsenic exposure. We conducted a case-cohort study based on individual estimates of lifetime arsenic exposure to examine the relationship between chronic low-level arsenic exposure and risk of CHD. This study included 555 participants with 96 CHD events diagnosed between 1984 and 1998 for which individual lifetime arsenic exposure estimates were determined using data from structured interviews and secondary data sources to determine lifetime residence, which was linked to a geospatial model of arsenic concentrations in drinking water. These lifetime arsenic exposure estimates were correlated with historically collected urinary arsenic concentrations. A Cox proportional-hazards model with time-dependent CHD risk factors was used to assess the association between time-weighted average (TWA) lifetime exposure to low-level inorganic arsenic in drinking water and incident CHD. We estimated a positive association between low-level inorganic arsenic exposure and CHD risk [hazard ratio (HR): = 1.38, 95% CI: 1.09, 1.78] per 15 μg/L while adjusting for age, sex, first-degree family history of CHD, and serum low-density lipoprotein levels. The risk of CHD increased monotonically with increasing TWAs for inorganic arsenic exposure in water relative to < 20 μg/L (HR = 1.2, 95% CI: 0.6, 2.2 for 20-30 μg/L; HR = 2.2; 95% CI: 1.2, 4.0 for 30-45 μg/L; and HR = 3, 95% CI: 1.1, 9.1 for 45-88 μg/L). Lifetime exposure to low-level inorganic arsenic in drinking water was associated with increased risk for CHD in this population.

Novel Equations for Estimating Lean Body Mass in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease.

PubMed

Tian, Xue; Chen, Yuan; Yang, Zhi-Kai; Qu, Zhen; Dong, Jie

2018-05-01

Simplified methods to estimate lean body mass (LBM), an important nutritional measure representing muscle mass and somatic protein, are lacking in nondialyzed patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). We developed and tested 2 reliable equations for estimation of LBM in daily clinical practice. The development and validation groups both included 150 nondialyzed patients with CKD Stages 3 to 5. Two equations for estimating LBM based on mid-arm muscle circumference (MAMC) or handgrip strength (HGS) were developed and validated in CKD patients with dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry as referenced gold method. We developed and validated 2 equations for estimating LBM based on HGS and MAMC. These equations, which also incorporated sex, height, and weight, were developed and validated in CKD patients. The new equations were found to exhibit only small biases when compared with dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry, with median differences of 0.94 and 0.46 kg observed in the HGS and MAMC equations, respectively. Good precision and accuracy were achieved for both equations, as reflected by small interquartile ranges in the differences and in the percentages of estimates that were 20% of measured LBM. The bias, precision, and accuracy of each equation were found to be similar when it was applied to groups of patients divided by the median measured LBM, the median ratio of extracellular to total body water, and the stages of CKD. LBM estimated from MAMC or HGS were found to provide accurate estimates of LBM in nondialyzed patients with CKD. Copyright © 2017 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Vulnerable Populations and the Association between Periodontal and Chronic Kidney Disease

PubMed Central

Plantinga, Laura C.; Crews, Deidra C.; Bibbins-Domingo, Kirsten; Saran, Rajiv; Heung, Michael; Patel, Priti R.; Burrows, Nilka Ríos; Ernst, Kristina L.; Powe, Neil R.

2011-01-01

Summary Background and objectives Recent studies suggest an overall association between chronic kidney disease (CKD) and periodontal disease, but it is unknown whether this association is similar across various subpopulations. Design, setting, participants, & measurements This study was a cross-sectional analysis of 2001 to 2004 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data. CKD was defined as a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio ≥30 mg/g or estimated GFR of 15 to 59 ml/min per 1.73 m2. Adjusted odds ratios were calculated using multivariable logistic regression with U.S. population-based weighting. Results These analyses included 6199 dentate adult participants (aged 21 to 75 years) with periodontal exams. The estimated prevalences of moderate/severe periodontal disease and CKD were 5.3% and 10.6%, respectively. Periodontal disease was associated with >2-fold higher risk of CKD that was moderately attenuated after adjustment for age, gender, race/ethnicity, tobacco use, hypertension, diabetes, educational attainment, poverty index ratio, and dental care use. There were no statistically significant interactions between periodontal disease and race/ethnicity, educational attainment, or poverty status. Less-than-recommended dental care use was associated with periodontal disease and CKD and was increasingly prevalent among nonwhites, lower educational attainment, and lower poverty status. Conclusions The association between periodontal disease and CKD is not significantly different among subgroups. However, because nonwhites, those with a lower educational level, and the poor less frequently report use of recommended dental care, the association between periodontal disease and kidney function over time may become stronger among these groups and warrants further investigation. PMID:21350109

Morbidity among nursing personnel and its association with working conditions and work organization.

PubMed

Vasconcelos, S; Marqueze, E; Gonçalves, L; Lemos, L; Araújo, L; Fischer, F M; Moreno, C R C

2012-01-01

Work organization patterns and working conditions experienced by nursing personnel in the hospital settings may be associated to increased morbidity among these health workers. To estimate the prevalence and factors associated with self-reported diseases among nursing personnel at the emergency hospital in Rio Branco/State of Acre, Brazil. A cross-sectional study was conducted involving 272 participants who answered a questionnaire including sociodemographic characteristics, working conditions, lifestyles, work ability, and a fatigue perception scale. The self-reported diseases in the 12 months prior to data collection were considered the dependent variable. A total of 85.7% of the participants reported one or more diseases in the past 12 months. Most prevalent diseases were: musculoskeletal diseases (37.1%), digestive diseases (28.7%), mental disorders (28.3%), work injuries (27.9%), and respiratory diseases (26.8%). The following significant variables remained in the final model: high work demands (OR 2.69), reported fatigue (OR 3.59), night work (OR 6.55) and being a technician or nursing assistant (OR 4.23). Variables related to working conditions and work organization were associated with the occurrence of reported diseases among nursing professionals. Health promotion measures at work require a comprehensive approach including the working conditions and the work organization.

Simultaneous narrowband ultrasonic strain-flow imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsou, Jean K.; Mai, Jerome J.; Lupotti, Fermin A.; Insana, Michael F.

2004-04-01

We are summarizing new research aimed at forming spatially and temporally registered combinations of strain and color-flow images using echo data recorded from a commercial ultrasound system. Applications include diagnosis of vascular diseases and tumor malignancies. The challenge is to meet the diverse needs of each measurement. The approach is to first apply eigenfilters that separate echo components from moving tissues and blood flow, and then estimate blood velocity and tissue displacement from the filtered-IQ-signal phase modulations. At the cost of a lower acquisition frame rate, we find the autocorrelation strain estimator yields higher resolution strain estimate than the cross-correlator since estimates are made from ensembles at a single point in space. The technique is applied to in vivo carotid imaging, to demonstrate the sensitivity for strain-flow vascular imaging.

Socioeconomic Effects of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease from the Public Payer's Perspective in Poland.

PubMed

Wziątek-Nowak, Weronika; Gierczyński, Jakub; Dąbrowiecki, Piotr; Gałązka-Sobotka, Małgorzata; Fal, Andrzej M; Gryglewicz, Jerzy; Badyda, Artur J

2016-01-01

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is currently the third most common cause of death worldwide and the total number of people affected reaches over 200 million. It is estimated that approximately 50 % of persons having COPD are not aware of it. In the EU, it is estimated that the total annual costs of COPD exceed €140 billion, and the expected increase in the number of cases and deaths due to COPD would further enhance economic and social costs of the disease. In this article we present the results of cost analysis of health care benefits associated with the treatment of COPD and with the disease-related incapacity for work. The analysis is based on the data of the National Health Fund and the Social Insurance Institutions, public payers of health benefits in Poland. The annual 2012 expenditures incurred for COPD treatment was €40 million, and the benefits associated with incapacity for work reached more than €55 million. The extent of these expenditures indicates that it is necessary to optimize the functioning system, including the allocation of resources for prevention, social awareness, and detection of COPD at early stages when treatment costs are relatively low.

Interpolation between spatial frameworks: an application of process convolution to estimating neighbourhood disease prevalence.

PubMed

Congdon, Peter

2014-04-01

Health data may be collected across one spatial framework (e.g. health provider agencies), but contrasts in health over another spatial framework (neighbourhoods) may be of policy interest. In the UK, population prevalence totals for chronic diseases are provided for populations served by general practitioner practices, but not for neighbourhoods (small areas of circa 1500 people), raising the question whether data for one framework can be used to provide spatially interpolated estimates of disease prevalence for the other. A discrete process convolution is applied to this end and has advantages when there are a relatively large number of area units in one or other framework. Additionally, the interpolation is modified to take account of the observed neighbourhood indicators (e.g. hospitalisation rates) of neighbourhood disease prevalence. These are reflective indicators of neighbourhood prevalence viewed as a latent construct. An illustrative application is to prevalence of psychosis in northeast London, containing 190 general practitioner practices and 562 neighbourhoods, including an assessment of sensitivity to kernel choice (e.g. normal vs exponential). This application illustrates how a zero-inflated Poisson can be used as the likelihood model for a reflective indicator.

Robot-assisted laparoscopic versus open partial nephrectomy in patients with chronic kidney disease: A propensity score-matched comparative analysis of surgical outcomes.

PubMed

Takagi, Toshio; Kondo, Tsunenori; Tachibana, Hidekazu; Iizuka, Junpei; Omae, Kenji; Kobayashi, Hirohito; Yoshida, Kazuhiko; Tanabe, Kazunari

2017-07-01

To compare surgical outcomes between robot-assisted laparoscopic partial nephrectomy and open partial nephrectomy in patients with chronic kidney disease. Of 550 patients who underwent partial nephrectomy between 2012 and 2015, 163 patients with T1-2 renal tumors who had an estimated glomerular filtration rate between 30 and 60 mL/min/1.73 m 2 , and underwent robot-assisted laparoscopic partial nephrectomy or open partial nephrectomy were retrospectively analyzed. To minimize selection bias between the two surgical methods, patient variables were adjusted by 1:1 propensity score matching. The present study included 75 patients undergoing robot-assisted laparoscopic partial nephrectomy and 88 undergoing open partial nephrectomy. After propensity score matching, 40 patients were included in each operative group. The mean preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate was 49 mL/min/1.73 m 2 . The mean ischemia time was 21 min in robot-assisted laparoscopic partial nephrectomy (warm ischemia) and 35 min in open partial nephrectomy (cold ischemia). Preservation of the estimated glomerular filtration rate 3-6 months postoperatively was not significantly different between robot-assisted laparoscopic partial nephrectomy and open partial nephrectomy (92% vs 91%, P = 0.9348). Estimated blood loss was significantly lower in the robot-assisted laparoscopic partial nephrectomy group than in the open partial nephrectomy group (104 vs 185 mL, P = 0.0025). The postoperative length of hospital stay was shorter in the robot-assisted laparoscopic partial nephrectomy group than in the open partial nephrectomy group (P < 0.0001). The prevalence of Clavien-Dindo grade 3 complications and a negative surgical margin status were not significantly different between the two groups. In our experience, robot-assisted laparoscopic partial nephrectomy and open partial nephrectomy provide similar outcomes in terms of functional preservation and perioperative complications among patients with chronic kidney disease. However, a lower estimated blood loss and shorter postoperative length of hospital stay can be obtained with robot-assisted laparoscopic partial nephrectomy. © 2017 The Japanese Urological Association.

Identifying priority chronic wasting disease surveillance areas for mule deer in Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Russell, Robin E.; Gude, Justin; Anderson, N.J.; Ramsey, Jennifer M.

2015-01-01

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal prion disease that affects a variety of ungulate species including mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus). As of 2014, no CWD cases had been reported in free-ranging ungulates in Montana. However, nearby cases in Canada, Wyoming, and the Dakotas indicated that the disease was encroaching on Montana's borders. Mule deer are native and common throughout Montana, and they represent a significant portion of the total hunter-harvested cervids in the state. The arrival of CWD in Montana may have significant ecosystem and socioeconomic impacts as well as potential consequences for wildlife management. We used 18,879 mule deer locations from 892 individual deer collected during 1975–2011 and modeled habitat selection for 7 herds in 5 of the 7 wildlife management regions in Montana. We estimated resource selection functions (RSF) in a Bayesian framework to predict summer and winter habitat preferences for mule deer. We estimated deer abundance from flyover counts for each region, and used the RSF predictions as weights to distribute the deer across the region. We then calculated the distance to the nearest known infected herds. We predicted areas of high risk of CWD infection in mule deer as areas with densities above the median density estimate and within the lowest quartile of distances to known infected herds. We identified these areas, the southeast corner of Montana and the north-central border near Alberta and Saskatchewan, as priority areas for CWD surveillance and management efforts. 

The Veterans Affairs Cardiac Risk Score: Recalibrating the Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Score for Applied Use.

PubMed

Sussman, Jeremy B; Wiitala, Wyndy L; Zawistowski, Matthew; Hofer, Timothy P; Bentley, Douglas; Hayward, Rodney A

2017-09-01

Accurately estimating cardiovascular risk is fundamental to good decision-making in cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention, but risk scores developed in one population often perform poorly in dissimilar populations. We sought to examine whether a large integrated health system can use their electronic health data to better predict individual patients' risk of developing CVD. We created a cohort using all patients ages 45-80 who used Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) ambulatory care services in 2006 with no history of CVD, heart failure, or loop diuretics. Our outcome variable was new-onset CVD in 2007-2011. We then developed a series of recalibrated scores, including a fully refit "VA Risk Score-CVD (VARS-CVD)." We tested the different scores using standard measures of prediction quality. For the 1,512,092 patients in the study, the Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk score had similar discrimination as the VARS-CVD (c-statistic of 0.66 in men and 0.73 in women), but the Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease model had poor calibration, predicting 63% more events than observed. Calibration was excellent in the fully recalibrated VARS-CVD tool, but simpler techniques tested proved less reliable. We found that local electronic health record data can be used to estimate CVD better than an established risk score based on research populations. Recalibration improved estimates dramatically, and the type of recalibration was important. Such tools can also easily be integrated into health system's electronic health record and can be more readily updated.

Change in Estimated GFR Associates with Coronary Heart Disease and Mortality

PubMed Central

Matsushita, Kunihiro; Bash, Lori D.; Franceschini, Nora; Astor, Brad C.; Coresh, Josef

2009-01-01

Kidney function predicts cardiovascular and all-cause mortality, but little is known about the association of changes in estimated GFR (eGFR) with clinical outcomes. We investigated whether 3- and 9-yr changes in eGFR associated with risk for coronary heart disease (CHD) and all-cause mortality among 13,029 participants of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study. After adjustment for baseline covariates including eGFR in Cox proportional hazards models, the quartile of participants with the greatest annual decline (annual decline ≥5.65%) in eGFR were at significantly greater risk for CHD and all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 1.30 [95% confidence interval 1.11 to 1.52] and 1.22 [95% confidence interval 1.06 to 1.41], respectively) compared with the third quartile (annual decline between 0.33 and 0.47%). We observed similar results when we analyzed 9-yr changes in eGFR. Adjustment for covariates at the second eGFR used to estimate change reduced the association with CHD but not with mortality. Among participants with stage 3 chronic kidney disease, an increase in eGFR during the first 3 yr also associated with a higher risk for mortality, perhaps as a result of clinical instability. In conclusion, a steeper than average decline in eGFR associates with a higher risk for CHD and all-cause mortality. Increases in eGFR among participants with chronic kidney disease associate with similar increased risks. PMID:19892932

The effect of preexisting respiratory co-morbidities on burn outcomes☆

PubMed Central

Knowlin, Laquanda T.; Stanford, Lindsay B.; Cairns, Bruce A.; Charles, Anthony G.

2018-01-01

Introduction Burns cause physiologic changes in multiple organ systems in the body. Burn mortality is usually attributable to pulmonary complications, which can occur in up to 41% of patients admitted to the hospital after burn. Patients with preexisting comorbidities such as chronic lung diseases may be more susceptible. We therefore sought to examine the impact of preexisting respiratory disease on burn outcomes. Methods A retrospective analysis of patients admitted to a regional burn center from 2002–2012. Independent variables analyzed included basic demographics, burn mechanism, presence of inhalation injury, TBSA, pre-existing comorbidities, smoker status, length of hospital stay, and days of mechanical ventilation. Bivariate analysis was performed and Cox regression modeling using significant variables was utilized to estimate hazard of progression to mechanical ventilation and mortality. Results There were a total of 7640 patients over the study period. Overall survival rate was 96%. 8% (n=672) had a preexisting respiratory disease. Chronic lung disease patients had a higher mortality rate (7%) compared to those without lung disease (4%, p<0.01). The adjusted Cox regression model to estimate the hazard of progression to mechanical ventilation in patients with respiratory disease was 21% higher compared to those without respiratory disease (HR=1.21, 95% CI=1.01–1.44). The hazard of progression to mortality is 56% higher (HR=1.56, 95% CI=1.10–2.19) for patients with pre-existing respiratory disease compared to those without respiratory disease after controlling for patient demographics and injury characteristics. Conclusion Preexisting chronic respiratory disease significantly increases the hazard of progression to mechanical ventilation and mortality in patients following burn. Given the increasing number of Americans with chronic respiratory diseases, there will likely be a greater number of individuals at risk for worse outcomes following burn. PMID:28341260

The effect of preexisting respiratory co-morbidities on burn outcomes.

PubMed

Knowlin, Laquanda T; Stanford, Lindsay B; Cairns, Bruce A; Charles, Anthony G

2017-03-01

Burns cause physiologic changes in multiple organ systems in the body. Burn mortality is usually attributable to pulmonary complications, which can occur in up to 41% of patients admitted to the hospital after burn. Patients with preexisting comorbidities such as chronic lung diseases may be more susceptible. We therefore sought to examine the impact of preexisting respiratory disease on burn outcomes. A retrospective analysis of patients admitted to a regional burn center from 2002-2012. Independent variables analyzed included basic demographics, burn mechanism, presence of inhalation injury, TBSA, pre-existing comorbidities, smoker status, length of hospital stay, and days of mechanical ventilation. Bivariate analysis was performed and Cox regression modeling using significant variables was utilized to estimate hazard of progression to mechanical ventilation and mortality. There were a total of 7640 patients over the study period. Overall survival rate was 96%. 8% (n=672) had a preexisting respiratory disease. Chronic lung disease patients had a higher mortality rate (7%) compared to those without lung disease (4%, p<0.01). The adjusted Cox regression model to estimate the hazard of progression to mechanical ventilation in patients with respiratory disease was 21% higher compared to those without respiratory disease (HR=1.21, 95% CI=1.01-1.44). The hazard of progression to mortality is 56% higher (HR=1.56, 95% CI=1.10-2.19) for patients with pre-existing respiratory disease compared to those without respiratory disease after controlling for patient demographics and injury characteristics. Preexisting chronic respiratory disease significantly increases the hazard of progression to mechanical ventilation and mortality in patients following burn. Given the increasing number of Americans with chronic respiratory diseases, there will likely be a greater number of individuals at risk for worse outcomes following burn. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.

Long-term exposure to crystalline silica and risk of heart disease mortality.

PubMed

Liu, Yuewei; Rong, Yi; Steenland, Kyle; Christiani, David C; Huang, Xiji; Wu, Tangchun; Chen, Weihong

2014-09-01

The association between crystalline silica exposure and risk of heart disease mortality remains less clear. We investigated a cohort of 42,572 Chinese workers who were potentially exposed to crystalline silica and followed from 1960 to 2003. Cumulative silica exposure was estimated by linking a job-exposure matrix to each person's work history. Low-level silica exposure was defined as never having held a job with an exposure higher than 0.1 mg/m. We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) in exposure-response analyses using Cox proportional hazards model. We identified 2846 deaths from heart disease during an average of 35 years follow-up. Positive exposure-response trends were observed for cumulative silica exposure associated with mortality from total heart disease (HRs for increasing quartiles of cumulative silica exposure compared with the unexposed group = 0.89, 1.09, 1.32, 2.10; P for linear trend < 0.001) and pulmonary heart disease (0.92, 1.39, 2.47, 5.46; P for linear trend < 0.001). These positive trends remained among workers with both high- and low-level silica exposure. There was also a positive trend for ischemic heart disease among workers with low-level exposure, with quartile HRs of 1.04, 1.13, 1.52, and 1.60 (P for linear trend < 0.001). Low-level crystalline silica exposure was associated with increased mortality from heart disease, including pulmonary heart disease and ischemic heart disease, whereas high-level exposure mainly increased mortality from pulmonary heart disease. Current permissible exposure limits for crystalline silica in many countries may be insufficient to protect people from deaths due to heart disease.

Statistical Analysis of Big Data on Pharmacogenomics

PubMed Central

Fan, Jianqing; Liu, Han

2013-01-01

This paper discusses statistical methods for estimating complex correlation structure from large pharmacogenomic datasets. We selectively review several prominent statistical methods for estimating large covariance matrix for understanding correlation structure, inverse covariance matrix for network modeling, large-scale simultaneous tests for selecting significantly differently expressed genes and proteins and genetic markers for complex diseases, and high dimensional variable selection for identifying important molecules for understanding molecule mechanisms in pharmacogenomics. Their applications to gene network estimation and biomarker selection are used to illustrate the methodological power. Several new challenges of Big data analysis, including complex data distribution, missing data, measurement error, spurious correlation, endogeneity, and the need for robust statistical methods, are also discussed. PMID:23602905

Drug-coated balloon angioplasty for de novo small vessel disease including chronic total occlusion and bifurcation in real-world clinical practice.

PubMed

Onishi, Takayuki; Onishi, Yuko; Kobayashi, Isshi; Umezawa, Shigeo; Niwa, Akihiro

2018-06-18

The aim of this study is to validate the efficacy of drug-coated balloons (DCBs) for real-world de novo small vessel diseases including chronic total occlusion and bifurcation. DCB angioplasty has been reported to be effective in the treatment of de novo small vessel disease. However, the number of reports that have focused on complex lesions is limited. This observational study comprised consecutive patients who underwent DCB angioplasty for de novo small vessel disease with a reference diameter of less than 2.5 mm by visual estimation. Outcome parameters included late lumen loss, restenosis rate, and major adverse cardiac events, such as cardiac death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, and target lesion revascularization (TLR). Fifty-two patients underwent DCB angioplasty for 59 lesions with a reference vessel diameter of 1.93 ± 0.63 mm. Thirty-eight of the lesions (69%) were classified as type B2/C, including chronic total occlusions (20%) and bifurcations (33%). At the 8-month follow-up, late lumen loss was - 0.01 ± 0.44 mm with a restenosis rate of 20%. No cardiac deaths or myocardial infarctions were reported and only 5 (9%) angiographically driven TLRs were reported. DCB angioplasty offered an acceptable 8-month lumen patency and a stable clinical outcome for real-world complex de novo coronary diseases.

Estimated cost of overactive bladder in Thailand.

PubMed

Prasopsanti, Kriangsak; Santi-Ngamkun, Apirak; Pornprasit, Kanokwan

2007-11-01

To estimate the annual direct and indirect costs of overactive bladder (OAB) in indigenous Thai people aged 18 years and over in the year 2005. Economically based models using diagnostic and treatment algorithms from clinical practice guidelines and current disease prevalence data were used to estimate direct and indirect costs of OAB. Prevalence and event probability estimates were obtained from the literature, national data sets, and expert opinion. Costs were estimated from a small survey using a cost questionnaire and from unit costs of King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital. The annual cost of OAB in Thailand is estimated as 1.9 billion USD. It is estimated to consume 1.14% of national GDP The cost includes 0.33 billion USD for direct medical costs, 1.3 billion USD for direct, nonmedical costs and 0.29 billion USD for indirect costs of lost productivity. The largest costs category was direct treatment costs of comorbidities associated with OAB. Costs of OAB medication accountedfor 14% of the total costs ofOAB.

Long-term disease and economic outcomes of prior authorization criteria for Hepatitis C treatment in Pennsylvania Medicaid.

PubMed

Kabiri, Mina; Chhatwal, Jagpreet; Donohue, Julie M; Roberts, Mark S; James, A Everette; Dunn, Michael A; Gellad, Walid F

2017-09-01

Several highly effective but costly therapies for hepatitis C virus (HCV) are available. As a consequence of their high price, 36 state Medicaid programs limited treatment coverage to patients with more advanced HCV stages. States have only limited information available to predict the long-term impact of these decisions. We adapted a validated hepatitis C microsimulation model to the Pennsylvania Medicaid population to estimate the existing HCV prevalence in Pennsylvania Medicaid and estimate the impact of various HCV drug coverage policies on disease outcomes and costs. Outcome measures included rates of advanced-stage HCV outcomes and treatment and disease costs in both Medicaid and Medicare. We estimated that 46,700 individuals in Pennsylvania Medicaid were infected with HCV in 2015, 33% of whom were still undiagnosed. By expanding treatment to include mild fibrosis stage (Metavir F2), Pennsylvania Medicaid will spend an additional $273 million on medications in the next decade with no substantial reduction in the incidence of liver cancer or liver-related death. Medicaid patients who are not eligible for treatment under restricted policies would get treatment once they transition to the Medicare program, which would incur 10% reduction in HCV-related costs due to early treatment in Medicaid. Further expanding treatment to patients with early fibrosis stages (F0 or F1) would cost Medicaid an additional $693 million during the next decade but would reduce the number of individuals in need of treatment in Medicare by 46% and decrease Medicare treatment costs by 23%. In some scenarios, outcomes could worsen with eligibility expansion if there is inadequate capacity to treat all patients. Expansion of HCV treatment coverage to less severe stages of liver disease may not substantially improve liver related outcomes for patients in Pennsylvania Medicaid in scenarios in which coverage through Medicare is widely available. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Can the Direct Medical Cost of Chronic Disease Be Transferred across Different Countries? Using Cost-of-Illness Studies on Type 2 Diabetes, Epilepsy and Schizophrenia as Examples

PubMed Central

Gao, Lan; Hu, Hao; Zhao, Fei-Li; Li, Shu-Chuen

2016-01-01

Objectives To systematically review cost of illness studies for schizophrenia (SC), epilepsy (EP) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and explore the transferability of direct medical cost across countries. Methods A comprehensive literature search was performed to yield studies that estimated direct medical costs. A generalized linear model (GLM) with gamma distribution and log link was utilized to explore the variation in costs that accounted by the included factors. Both parametric (Random-effects model) and non-parametric (Boot-strapping) meta-analyses were performed to pool the converted raw cost data (expressed as percentage of GDP/capita of the country where the study was conducted). Results In total, 93 articles were included (40 studies were for T2DM, 34 studies for EP and 19 studies for SC). Significant variances were detected inter- and intra-disease classes for the direct medical costs. Multivariate analysis identified that GDP/capita (p<0.05) was a significant factor contributing to the large variance in the cost results. Bootstrapping meta-analysis generated more conservative estimations with slightly wider 95% confidence intervals (CI) than the parametric meta-analysis, yielding a mean (95%CI) of 16.43% (11.32, 21.54) for T2DM, 36.17% (22.34, 50.00) for SC and 10.49% (7.86, 13.41) for EP. Conclusions Converting the raw cost data into percentage of GDP/capita of individual country was demonstrated to be a feasible approach to transfer the direct medical cost across countries. The approach from our study to obtain an estimated direct cost value along with the size of specific disease population from each jurisdiction could be used for a quick check on the economic burden of particular disease for countries without such data. PMID:26814959

Evaluation of a Smartphone Decision-Support Tool for Diarrheal Disease Management in a Resource-Limited Setting

PubMed Central

Khatun, Selina; Ahmed, Mujaddeed; Kache, Saraswati; Chisti, Mohammod Jobayer; Sarker, Shafiqul Alam; Maples, Stace D.; Pieri, Dane; Vardhan Korrapati, Teja; Sarnquist, Clea; Federspiel, Nancy; Rahman, Muhammad Waliur; Andrews, Jason R.; Rahman, Mahmudur; Nelson, Eric Jorge

2017-01-01

The emergence of mobile technology offers new opportunities to improve clinical guideline adherence in resource-limited settings. We conducted a clinical pilot study in rural Bangladesh to evaluate the impact of a smartphone adaptation of the World Health Organization (WHO) diarrheal disease management guidelines, including a modality for age-based weight estimation. Software development was guided by end-user input and evaluated in a resource-limited district and sub-district hospital during the fall 2015 cholera season; both hospitals lacked scales which necessitated weight estimation. The study consisted of a 6 week pre-intervention and 6 week intervention period with a 10-day post-discharge follow-up. Standard of care was maintained throughout the study with the exception that admitting clinicians used the tool during the intervention. Inclusion criteria were patients two months of age and older with uncomplicated diarrheal disease. The primary outcome was adherence to guidelines for prescriptions of intravenous (IV) fluids, antibiotics and zinc. A total of 841 patients were enrolled (325 pre-intervention; 516 intervention). During the intervention, the proportion of prescriptions for IV fluids decreased at the district and sub-district hospitals (both p < 0.001) with risk ratios (RRs) of 0.5 and 0.2, respectively. However, when IV fluids were prescribed, the volume better adhered to recommendations. The proportion of prescriptions for the recommended antibiotic azithromycin increased (p < 0.001 district; p = 0.035 sub-district) with RRs of 6.9 (district) and 1.6 (sub-district) while prescriptions for other antibiotics decreased; zinc adherence increased. Limitations included an absence of a concurrent control group and no independent dehydration assessment during the pre-intervention. Despite limitations, opportunities were identified to improve clinical care, including better assessment, weight estimation, and fluid/ antibiotic selection. These findings demonstrate that a smartphone-based tool can improve guideline adherence. This study should serve as a catalyst for a randomized controlled trial to expand on the findings and address limitations. PMID:28103233

A Systematic Review of Mortality from Untreated Scrub Typhus (Orientia tsutsugamushi).

PubMed

Taylor, Andrew J; Paris, Daniel H; Newton, Paul N

2015-01-01

Scrub typhus, a bacterial infection caused by Orientia tsutsugamushi, is increasingly recognized as an important cause of fever in Asia, with an estimated one million infections occurring each year. Limited access to health care and the disease's non-specific symptoms mean that many patients are undiagnosed and untreated, but the mortality from untreated scrub typhus is unknown. This review systematically summarizes the literature on the untreated mortality from scrub typhus and disease outcomes. A literature search was performed to identify patient series containing untreated patients. Patients were included if they were symptomatic and had a clinical or laboratory diagnosis of scrub typhus and excluded if they were treated with antibiotics. The primary outcome was mortality from untreated scrub typhus and secondary outcomes were total days of fever, clinical symptoms, and laboratory results. A total of 76 studies containing 89 patient series and 19,644 patients were included in the final analysis. The median mortality of all patient series was 6.0% with a wide range (min-max) of 0-70%. Many studies used clinical diagnosis alone and had incomplete data on secondary outcomes. Mortality varied by location and increased with age and in patients with myocarditis, delirium, pneumonitis, or signs of hemorrhage, but not according to sex or the presence of an eschar or meningitis. Duration of fever was shown to be long (median 14.4 days Range (9-19)). Results show that the untreated mortality from scrub typhus appears lower than previously reported estimates. More data are required to clarify mortality according to location and host factors, clinical syndromes including myocarditis and central nervous system disease, and in vulnerable mother-child populations. Increased surveillance and improved access to diagnostic tests are required to accurately estimate the untreated mortality of scrub typhus. This information would facilitate reliable quantification of DALYs and guide empirical treatment strategies.

Evaluation of a Smartphone Decision-Support Tool for Diarrheal Disease Management in a Resource-Limited Setting.

PubMed

Haque, Farhana; Ball, Robyn L; Khatun, Selina; Ahmed, Mujaddeed; Kache, Saraswati; Chisti, Mohammod Jobayer; Sarker, Shafiqul Alam; Maples, Stace D; Pieri, Dane; Vardhan Korrapati, Teja; Sarnquist, Clea; Federspiel, Nancy; Rahman, Muhammad Waliur; Andrews, Jason R; Rahman, Mahmudur; Nelson, Eric Jorge

2017-01-01

The emergence of mobile technology offers new opportunities to improve clinical guideline adherence in resource-limited settings. We conducted a clinical pilot study in rural Bangladesh to evaluate the impact of a smartphone adaptation of the World Health Organization (WHO) diarrheal disease management guidelines, including a modality for age-based weight estimation. Software development was guided by end-user input and evaluated in a resource-limited district and sub-district hospital during the fall 2015 cholera season; both hospitals lacked scales which necessitated weight estimation. The study consisted of a 6 week pre-intervention and 6 week intervention period with a 10-day post-discharge follow-up. Standard of care was maintained throughout the study with the exception that admitting clinicians used the tool during the intervention. Inclusion criteria were patients two months of age and older with uncomplicated diarrheal disease. The primary outcome was adherence to guidelines for prescriptions of intravenous (IV) fluids, antibiotics and zinc. A total of 841 patients were enrolled (325 pre-intervention; 516 intervention). During the intervention, the proportion of prescriptions for IV fluids decreased at the district and sub-district hospitals (both p < 0.001) with risk ratios (RRs) of 0.5 and 0.2, respectively. However, when IV fluids were prescribed, the volume better adhered to recommendations. The proportion of prescriptions for the recommended antibiotic azithromycin increased (p < 0.001 district; p = 0.035 sub-district) with RRs of 6.9 (district) and 1.6 (sub-district) while prescriptions for other antibiotics decreased; zinc adherence increased. Limitations included an absence of a concurrent control group and no independent dehydration assessment during the pre-intervention. Despite limitations, opportunities were identified to improve clinical care, including better assessment, weight estimation, and fluid/ antibiotic selection. These findings demonstrate that a smartphone-based tool can improve guideline adherence. This study should serve as a catalyst for a randomized controlled trial to expand on the findings and address limitations.

Periodontal Disease and Incident Lung Cancer Risk: A Meta-Analysis of Cohort Studies.

PubMed

Zeng, Xian-Tao; Xia, Ling-Yun; Zhang, Yong-Gang; Li, Sheng; Leng, Wei-Dong; Kwong, Joey S W

2016-10-01

Periodontal disease is linked to a number of systemic diseases such as cardiovascular diseases and diabetes mellitus. Recent evidence has suggested periodontal disease might be associated with lung cancer. However, their precise relationship is yet to be explored. Hence, this study aims to investigate the association of periodontal disease and risk of incident lung cancer using a meta-analytic approach. PubMed, Scopus, and ScienceDirect were searched up to June 10, 2015. Cohort and nested case-control studies investigating risk of lung cancer in patients with periodontal disease were included. Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated, as were their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using a fixed-effect inverse-variance model. Statistical heterogeneity was explored using the Q test as well as the I(2) statistic. Publication bias was assessed by visual inspection of funnel plots symmetry and Egger's test. Five cohort studies were included, involving 321,420 participants in this meta-analysis. Summary estimates based on adjusted data showed that periodontal disease was associated with a significant risk of lung cancer (HR = 1.24, 95% CI = 1.13 to 1.36; I(2) = 30%). No publication bias was detected. Subgroup analysis indicated that the association of periodontal disease and lung cancer remained significant in the female population. Evidence from cohort studies suggests that patients with periodontal disease are at increased risk of developing lung cancer.